Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technicals Commonwealth & Eurchf

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

AUD:(.8957) Above channel top off year high (see graph)

FOREX AUD=,22 (0.8950, 0.8957, 0.8950, 0.8956, +0.0005)

0.910
.9069
HOURLY CHARTS
0.905
0.900
0.895
0.890
.8860 .8871
0.885
0.880
0.875
0.870
0.865
.8633 0.860
0.855
0.850
0.845
0.840
0.835

.8315 0.830
0.825
0.820
0.815
0.810
.8083 0.805
0.800
2 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

Strong rebound off .8633 puts the pair above the channel top off year high (see graph) but currently back below
daily Downtrendline off 2009 high (.8983 today).
Support at .8924 (today’s low?), with next levels at .8895 (reaction lows hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8877/ .8855 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom/ daily Medium Term Moving Average↑
+ break-up hourly): tough on 1st attempts.
Resistance area at .9002 (breakdown hourly), with next levels at .9025 (reaction high hourly), where pause fa-
vored.
If wrong, next levels at .9069/ .9076 (current week high/ 76.4% year high to .8066 + modified weekly Standard
Error Band top), ahead of .9090/ .9096 (76.4% 2009 high to .8066/ daily envelope top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

.8924 (see above) .9002 (see above)

.8895 (reaction lows hourly) .9025 (see above)

.9069/ .9076 (current week high/ 76.4% year high to
.8877/ .8854 (see above/ daily MT MA↑ + see above)
.8066 + see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

CAD: (1.0302)

FOREX CAD=,22 (1.0307, 1.0308, 1.0294, 1.0300, -0.0004)

1.0680
1.0678

1.065

1.060

1.055

1.050

1.045

1.040

1.035

1.030

1.0276 1.025

1.020

1.015

1.0138
1.010

2 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

Drop from 1.0678 puts the pair below the redrawn daily Uptrendline off year low (1.0390 today) and tested
1.0276 (see graph).
1st Support area at 1.0290 (break-up hourly), with next levels at 1.0274 (daily envelope bottom), ahead of
1.0261/ .0256 (medium term break-up daily/ current week low), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.0232 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom), ahead of 1.0217/ .0213 (daily Bollin-
ger bottom/ weekly envelope bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

1st Resistance area at 1.0346 (breakdown hourly), with next levels at 1.0396/ .0401 (current week high + daily
daily Medium Term Moving Average→/ daily envelope top + daily Long Term Moving Average→), where
pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.0427/ .0437 (reaction high hourly/ modified daily Alpha Beta trend top + daily Bollin-
ger midline): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.0290/ .0274 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) 1.0346 (see above)

1.0396/ .0401 (current week high + see above/ daily enve-

1.0261/ .0256 (MT break-up daily/ current week low)
lope top + see above)
1.0427/ .0437 (see above/ daily Bollinger midline + see
1.0232/ .0217 (see above/ daily Bollinger bottom)
above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

GBP: (1.5593) New recovery high on move back above Flag off year low (see graph)
FOREX GBP=,22 (1.5606, 1.5616, 1.5588, 1.5590, -0.0017)
1.570
1.565
1.560
1.555
1.550
1.5473
1.545
1.540
1.535
1.530
1.525
1.5230 1.520
1.515
1.5125 1.510
1.505
1.500
1.495
1.4949
1.490
1.485
1.480
1.475
1.470
1.4688 1.465
1.460
1.455
1.450
1.445
1.440
1.435
1.4346 1.430
1.425
2 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

New recovery high on move back above the Flag off year low (see graph: equivalent on daily charts has its
broken top at 1.5238 today): Support at 1.5577/ .5564 (broken daily Bollinger top/ today’s low?), with next lev-
els at 1.5550/ .5547 (broken 200 Day Moving Average↓/ daily envelope bottom) and 1.5524/ .5506 (neckline
daily Double Bottom/ reaction low hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.5465 (daily Short Term Moving Average↑) and 1.5441/ .5434 (reaction lows hourly):
tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance area at 1.5626/ .5629 (today’s + current new recovery high off year low? + modified daily Standard
Error band top/ daily channel top off June low) and 1.5635 (potential of daily Flag break off year low), where
pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.5680 (potential of Flag break: see chart) and 1.5700 (modified daily Alpha Beta Trend
top) and 1.5713/ .5726 (daily envelope top/ daily Starc top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.5577/ .5564 (see above) 1.5626/ .5629 (see above)

1.5550/ .5547 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) 1.5635 (see above)

1.5506/ .5465 (see above/ daily ST MA↑) 1.5680/ .5700 (see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

EUR/CHF: (1.3783) New recovery high on move back in Flag off low (see graph)

FOREX EURCHF=EBS (1.3798, 1.3805, 1.3782, 1.3785, -0.0012)

1.430
1.425
1.420
1.415
1.410
1.4041 1.405
1.400
1.395
1.390
1.385
1.380
1.375
1.3735 1.3677 1.370
1.365
1.360
1.355
1.350
1.3434
1.345
1.340
1.335
1.330
1.325
1.320
1.315
1.310
1.3073 1.305
1.300

31 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010

Currently back in long term daily channel off 2007 high (bottom at 1.3733 today) and has met 2nd target
off 1.3434 (see graph) at 1.3795.

Resistance area at 1.3818 (today’s + current recovery high off low), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3831 (50% may high to 1.3073), ahead of 1.3863 (breakdown daily + daily Starc top
+ daily projection band top) and 1.3886 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend top): tough on 1st attempts.

Support area at 1.3777/ .3764 (broken daily Bollinger top/ today’s low?), ahead of 1.3745 (reaction low hourly)
and 1.3733/ .3728 (see above/ daily envelope bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3695 (break-up hourly), ahead of 1.3650 (daily Short Term Moving Average↑) tough
on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.3777/ .3764 (see above) 1.3818 (see above)

1.3745 (see above) 1.3831 (50% May high to 1.3073)

1.3733/ .3728 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) 1.3863/ .3886 (see above + daily Starc top/ see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Wednesday, July 28, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

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KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5