Mark recapture lecture 2:

Jolly-Seber
Confidence intervals
Jolly-Seber

For an OPEN population

Repeatedly sampled

Information on when an
individual was last marked
LPB Colony size

Year
 Open populations
Individuals enter or leave the
population between surveys

Survey 1 Survey 2
 Catch nt animals

Check if each animal is marked

NO YES

Total unmarked (ut) Total marked (mt)

Question:
What is formula Mark all with
for proportion code for this time
marked? period

Release St (equals nt if no handling mortality)

Jolly-Seber

Remember Petersen (biased):

N= C M
R
 Problem: We dont know how many
marked in population (M)

Sample 1: mark 21 animals

Sample 2: mark 41 animals
Sample 3: mark 46 animals

How many marked at beginning of

sample 4?

Not 21+41+46=108, as some will have died or emigrated

 Time 1 Time 2 Time 3
A A A
C
A A C A
B B
B B
A B

Mark 3, but Mark 3 more, Mark 2 more,

1 of these but 1 marked no loss of
emigrates animal dies marked
animals
 Time 4
How many marked
animals are alive and
present in the
population at time 4?

Marked animals in sample 4 (m4) = 3

+ Marked animals not in sample 4

=Total number of marked animals in population

 Time 4

D
D
D D
D
D

Marked animals in sample 4 (m4) = 3

+ Marked animals not in sample 4

=Total number of marked animals in population

6 marked at end of time 4 (S4)

 Time 4 Time 5

D
D D
D D D D
D
D D

Marked animals in sample 4 (m4) = 3

+ Marked animals not in sample 4

=Total number of marked animals in population

6 marked at end of time 4 (S4)

 Time 4 Time 5

D
D D
D D D D
D
D D

Marked animals in sample 4 (m4) = 3

+ Marked animals not in sample 4 (> 1)

=Total number of marked animals in population

6 marked at time 4 (S4), recaptured (R4)=1

 Time 4 Time 5

E E
D
D E
D D D D
D
D D

Marked animals in sample 4 (m4) = 3

+ Marked animals not in sample 4 (> 1)

=Total number of marked animals in population

6 marked at time 4 (S4), recaptured (R4)=1

 Time 4 Time 5 Time 6

E E E E
D
D E E
D D D D D D
D
D D D

Marked animals in sample 4 (m4) = 3

+ Marked animals not in sample 4 (> 1)

=Total number of marked animals in population

6 marked at time 4 (S4), recaptured (R4)=1+1

 Marked animals alive but not found in sample 4

= Recaptures after sample 4 (Z4=1)

x
factor accounting for animals missed or lost
from population (S4 / R4) = 6/2 = 3

Marked animals in sample 4 (m4) = 3

+ Marked animals not in sample 4 (> 1)

=Total number of marked animals in population

6 marked at time 4 (S4), recaptured (R4)=1+1

Marked animals alive but not found in sample 4

= Z4 * S4 = 1* 6 = 3
R4 2

Marked animals in sample 4 (m4) = 3

+ Marked animals not in sample 4 (=3)

=Total number of marked animals in population

(M4 = 6)
 Biased formula for number of marked animals in population:

Mt= mt + Zt * St
Rt

Unbiased formula for number of marked animals in population:

Mt= mt + Zt * (St + 1)
(Rt + 1)
Jolly-Seber

Remember Petersen (biased):

N= C M
R

Rearrange to:

N=M Number marked in population

(R/C) Proportion marked
in sample
Jolly-Seber

Nt = Mt Number marked in population (t)

(?) Proportion marked
in sample t
Jolly-Seber

mt mt +1
?= ? (unbiased) =
nt nt + 1

Nt = Mt Number marked in population

(?) Proportion marked
in sample
Question:

m5 = 21
S5 = 9
R5 = 4
Z5 = 10
n5 = 43

What is N?
 Confidence intervals

A range around the estimate of a parameter

which

-if repeated

would include the true value of the parameter a

certain percentage of the time

( )
 ( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
95% Confidence interval:
( )
( )
( ) 19/20 of these confidence
( ) intervals contain the true
( ) value
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( )
( ) true value
( )
( )
Example of 95% confidence intervals:

501 British Columbians: Which party would you

vote for in the next provincial election?:
CI = 4.5%

Sept
Dec 2004 Feb 2005 Feb 2009
2004

BC
43% 40% 46% 52%
Liberals

NDP 37% 43% 40% 36%

Green 10% 8% 10% 12%

Reform 4% 2% 2% --
Difference between confidence interval and variance:

Variance: know distribution of MANY data points

around estimate (mean)

Eg. We measured height of 500 British Columbians

(1.4 m + 0.2 m)

Confidence interval: only have ONE parameter

estimate, have to guess what the distribution of
repeated measurements might look like

Eg. We obtained percentage of British Columbians

who disapprove of Campbells performance, and
estimated CI (51% + 4.5%)
Step 1: Make an educated guess as to the distribution (p 22 Krebs)

Is the ratio of Y
Petersen Binomial
R/C > 0.10?

Is the number
Y Normal
Schnabel of recaptures,
R > 50?
Schumacher-
Eschmeyer
Poisson

Jolly-Seber: complex lognormal assumed,

See Krebs p 47
Step 2: Calculate CI for either R or R/C (as appropriate)

-see formulae in Krebs

Step 3: Insert upper and lower bound for R or R/C into the formula
for estimating population size to obtain CI

For example, if CI for R/C is (0.083, 0.177), to

calculate CI for N by Petersen:

N=M/ 0.083 (upper bound)

N=M/ 0.177 (lower bound)