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REITs Research

US Real Estate Investment Trusts


U.S. Equity Research May 30, 2017 Opinion Change

Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017;


Upgrading SPG to Buy
Lowering PTs, NAVs and Estimates
Summary Price Rating
Company Symbol (5/29) Prior Curr PT
What a Difference a Year Makes. We attended the annual ICSC retail American Assets AAT $39.43 Neutral $42.50
convention, meeting with a host of public / private companies and brokers. The Trust, Inc.
Brixmor Property BRX $18.53 Neutral $19.00
mood was more subdued than in years prior, unsurprising given the magnitude Group, Inc.
of recent store closures and stock declines. More positively, leasing activity CBL & Associates CBL $7.85 Neutral $8.50
remains brisk, though it's clearly a tenants' market. Buyers are pricing in higher Properties, Inc.
DDR Corp. DDR $8.96 Neutral $9.50
cap rates / risk premiums, pointing to lower core growth and asset values ahead.
Federal Realty FRT $126.32 Buy $140.00
Despite attractive values (even on our lowered estimates) and sizable YTD Investment Trust
gap vs the RMZ, we think negative retail psychology and lack of near-term General Growth GGP $22.65 Buy Neutral $24.50
Properties, Inc.
asset pricing discovery likely keep some investors on the sidelines though the
Kimco Realty Corp KIM $18.03 Neutral $19.00
retail REITs appear set up well for a short-term relief rally. We're lowering our Simon Property SPG $157.26Neutral Buy $178.00
earnings estimates, NAVs and PTs and making three rating changes (upgrading Group, Inc
SPG to Buy). See inside for meetings takeaways and updated models. Taubman Centers, TCO $62.33 Buy $76.00
Inc.
The Macerich MAC $58.77 Buy Neutral $63.00
Company
KeyPoints
Source: Bloomberg and Mizuho Securities USA

Lots of Leasing...but it's a Tenant's Market. While leasing activity remains


active, per brokers, suggesting less near-term occupancy pressure than feared,
the pendulum has clearly swung in favor of tenants. Muted rent growth on
new leases signed along with more generous TI and cap ex packages points
to lower re-leasing spread, ABR and ssNOI growth ahead. Brokers also noted
more REITs are paying leasing commissions than in years past. We are lowering
our 2017 ssNOI forecasts by ~40bps for Malls to 2.9% and ~50bps for Strips to
1.9%, and introducing our 2018 ssNOI estimates of 2.8% / 1.8%.
Asset Values Declining. Brokers confirmed meaningful changes in asset
underwriting by prospective buyers (higher initial / exit cap rates, lower growth
forecasts), for all but the best assets. However, limited recent transaction activity
continues to mask underlying cap rate moves. We are raising our cap rates by
an average of 63bps for Malls / 83bps for Strip REITs.
Lowering FFO Ests, NAVs & PTs to reflect 1Q17 model updates, as well
as lower core growth assumptions and higher cap rates. On average, we are
lowering our mall REIT 2017 / 2018 FFO ests by 0.1% / 1.1% and our NAVs Haendel St. Juste
down by 18%. For Strips, our FFO ests are down 0.4% / 2.0% and our NAVs Managing Director
down by 19%. Post these changes, the Mall and Strip REITs trade at 13.9x / +1 212-205-7860
14.5x 2017 FFO and 86% / 84% of NAV vs 17.6x / 96% for all REITs. Haendel.St.Juste@us.mizuho-sc.com
Jieren Huang
We are making three valuation driven ratings changes following our Research Associate, Americas Research
NAV / PT updates - upgrading SPG to Buy ($178 PT) from Neutral and +1 212 205 7862
downgrading both GGP and MAC to Neutral from Buy. jieren.huang@us.mizuho-sc.com

PLEASE REFER TO PAGE 51 OF THIS REPORT FOR IMPORTANT DISCLOSURE AND ANALYST CERTIFICATION
INFORMATION. Mizuho Securities USA LLC does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports.
As a result, investors should be aware that the Firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this
report. Investors should consider this report as only a single factor in making their investment decision.

Mizuho Securities USA LLC


www.mizuhosecurities.com/us
Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Leasing Activity Continues, but Decelerating Rent / SSNOI Growth is


Clear. The acceleration of store closures this year (having surpassed 2016
and now approaching 2008/09 recession levels) has put the retail REITs and
their portfolios squarely in the spotlight, providing a live case study on the
positioning / relevance and pricing power of each portfolio. The closures
also added to the ssNOI pressure for a sector already facing rent / pricing
power and peak occupancy headwinds.
However, our conversations at ICSC ameliorated our near-term occupancy
concerns as brokers and company managements confirmed that leasing
activity remains strong, echoing comments from recent retail REIT
management earnings calls. A common refrain was that leases are still
getting signed at still positive spreads. That said, one can easily deduce
that rent growth is on the wane, particularly on a net effective basis given a
slowing second derivative and the more generous cap ex and TI packages
being offered. Brokers also noted more REITs are paying leasing
commissions to brokers, suggesting a more defensive landlord mindset.
Because of these factors, we are lowering our 2017 ssNOI forecasts by
~40bps for Malls to 2.9% and ~50bps for Strips to 1.9% and introducing our
2018 ssNOI estimates of 2.8% / 1.8%. See Exhibit 7 for more detail.

Financing Available, but More Selective. Our broker meetings (including


Boulder Group, JLL, and HFF) noted that asset financing is still readily
available for higher-quality assets. However, debt capital is increasingly
selective with lower tier malls, for instance, now more reliant than ever on
CMBS and private debt funding sources. Per JLL, CMBS no longer wants to
lend to malls with sales psf below $400 with debt / opportunity funds the
alternative. We understand debt capital availability terms as follows:
- A quality assets: up to 50%+ LTV, 10-year, ~4% cost (bank, life
insurance companies)
- Solid B quality assets (sales $400psf+): 60-65%, 5 years, ~4.5-5.25%
cost (CMBS)
- B- / C assets (malls with sales sub-$400psf): 65% LTV at higher
rates (debt funds / bridge capital)

Cap Rates Moving North. Our broker checks confirmed that asset values
have clearly re-priced for all, but the best quality assets. A shortage of
transactions is likely concealing the extent of the revised investment
underwriting / cap rates as buyers now forecast lower near-term NOI
growth, higher required risk premiums (given retail industry headwinds) and
higher exit cap rates (+50-100bps in some cases). Based on our
conversations with brokers (including HFF and JLL), we are raising our
applied cap rates by an average of 63bps for our mall REIT coverage names

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 2


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

and 83bps for our Shopping Center REIT coverage names (see Exhibit 5 and
Exhibit 6 for more detail).
We note the following general trends: higher quality asset values more
sticky; below the top-quality level, shopping center values have held up a
bit better than malls given necessity based tenants and lower financing levels
required, while B malls and power centers have widened out more
meaningfully given concerns over relevance in a changing retail backdrop.
Our broker channel checks estimate that current retail REIT cap rates are as
follows:

On the mall side:


- A+ malls ($600psf+ sales in strong demographic trade areas)
unchanged ~4%, with unlevered IRR expectations in the high-5 to mid-
6% range
- A- / B+ malls (with sales ~$450-600psf in solid trade areas) now ~6-
7%, +~100bps vs one year ago, with unlevered IRR expectations in the
7-8% range
- Solid B malls (with sales ~$350-450psf) now ~7-10% (+150-250bps+
YOY) with low double-digit unlevered IRR expectations
- B- / C malls and lower no bid, compared to low double-digit cap rates
one year ago

On the grocery-anchored shopping center side, we note the following cap


rate, per our broker meetings:
- A quality cap rates ~5-5.5%, unchanged YOY, with ~6-7% unlevered
IRRs
- B quality centers ~6-8%, +50-100bps YOY

On the power center side, we note the following cap rate estimates, per our
broker channel checks:
- Best of the best ~6-7% (unchanged YOY)
- B quality ~8-10% (+200bps YOY)

Lowering Our FFO/sh and NAV Estimates. We are lowering our earnings
and NAV estimates to reflect our 1Q17 model updates, as well as lower core
growth assumptions and higher cap rates. On average, we are lowering our
Mall REIT 2017 / 2018 FFO estimates by 0.1% / 1.1% and our NAVs down
by 18%. For our Shopping Center REITs, we are lowering our FFO

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 3


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

estimates by 0.4% / 2.0% and our NAVs down by 19%. Post these changes,
the Mall and Strip REITs trade at 13.9x / 14.5x 2017 FFO and 86% / 84% of
NAV vs 17.6x / 96% for all REITs. See Exhibits 1, 3 & 4 for more details.
Ratings Changes Upgrading SPG to Buy, Downgrading GGP and
MAC to Neutral
We are also making a number of ratings changes in the Mall REIT sector
(upgrading SPG to Buy, while downgrading both GGP and MAC to
Neutral), as outlined below. Our changes are valuation driven (post our
earnings and NAV updates) and reflect our view that selectivity is even
more critical in this stage of the retail industrys evolution with platform and
balance sheet strength and FFO multiples / growth (given greater generalist
influence) to play a more critical role than our NAV based approach
previously. Our changes are as follows:
Upgrading SPG to Buy ($178 PT) from Neutral given more favorable
FFO/sh growth in FY17 (6.1% vs peers +3.9%), attractive relative
valuation (forward FFO multiple of 13.6x vs Malls' 13.9x, P/NAV of
88% vs Malls 86%), and upside (13%) to our updated PT ($178).
We view SPG as a global powerhouse with a history of prudent and
opportunistic capital allocation, warranting a premium to peers
(reflected in our 0% warranted discount vs -5% to -40% for mall REIT
peers). Lastly, we see SPGs fortress balance sheet as a key
differentiator (A rating / ~6.0x debt/EBITDA / $1B+ annual FCF
funding redevelopments yielding 8%+) that should allow it to capitalize
should interesting opportunities arise.
Our new PT of $178.00 is based on 0% warranted discount / premium to
our NAV estimate of $178; see Exhibit 1 for more details.
Downgrading GGP to Neutral ($24.50 PT) as we think the stock is
fairly valued (p/ 2017 FFO of 14.4x vs Malls 13.9x, p/NAV of 87% vs
Malls' 86%) given recent outperformance (YTD -9% vs peers -13%;
+5% since May 1) and limited upside (8%) to our updated $24.50 PT.
We also point out GGPs below-average YOY FFO/sh growth (2.7% /
3.1% for 2017 / 2018 vs 4.1% / 4.7% for Mall REITs), above-average
leverage (8.6x debt/EBITDA vs Malls 6.6x), moderating near-term
ssNOI growth given a lower FY17 ssNOI forecast (+2.8% vs 3.1% for
MAC, 3.0% for SPG, 3.6% for TCO) and tougher 2H17 YOY comps
(+4.5% in 2H16 vs +3.0% for SPG, +2.2% for TCO, +3.1% for MAC).
That said, we continue to view GGP as a high-quality platform /
portfolio (80% NOI from A malls) and think the stock can find support
with ongoing M&A speculation and likely additional B mall sales (we
hear from brokers that GGP is marketing a package of B malls).
Our new PT of $24.50 is based on 5% warranted premium to our NAV
estimate of $26; see Exhibit 1 for more details.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 4


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Downgrading MAC to Neutral ($63 PT) from Buy given YOY


FFO/sh decline in FY17 (-3.2% vs peers +3.9%), fair valuation (17e
FFO multiple of 14.9x vs Malls' 13.9x) and limited upside (7%) to our
updated PT ($63). We also see above-average leverage (~8x
debt/EBITDA as of 1Q17) as a limiting factor and a perceptual negative.
Despite our downgrade, we still like MACs smaller and higher-
productivity portfolio (sales psf at $639) and view the platform as a
long-term winner in the retail evolution underway. Further, we would
view the potential winnowing of its portfolio to a top 30 group of assets
vs a top 40 strategy at the moment favorably.
Our updated new PT of $63 is based on 10% warranted premium to our
NAV estimate of $70; see Exhibit 1 for more details.

Summer Relief Rally? Maybebut dont expect a repeat of Summer


2016. Despite the mall and shopping center REITs YTD underperformance
(malls 12.5% / shopping centers -17.5% / RMZ -0.4%) and the relatively
attractive valuations on offer, we think the bearish sentiment overhanging
the sector, the lack of pricing discovery to allow investors to make informed
investment decisions, and slowing core growth may likely limit near-term
upside. This is in contrast to last summer when retail REITs were +20%
from May to August 2016 (outperforming the RMZ by nearly 700bps). We
acknowledge the easing headwinds in the months ahead as we exit retailer
earnings season, face a bit less store closure risk (although likely Ascena
store closures and potential Sears bankruptcy remain sources of anxiety) and
easier YOY ssNOI comps in 2H17 which should support the stocks.
In the meantime, wed advise against chasing perceived value as many lower
productivity platforms may not look so cheap once new market pricing gets
established. So, for now, we recommend retail REITs with well-positioned
platforms and fortress balance sheets (i.e., FRT, SPG).

Select tidbits from our public REIT meetings:

CBL & Associates (CBL: Neutral)


- Management wants to increase non-mall REIT NOI in the portfolio and
bring in more mixed-use (apartments in particular, given traffic and
valuation benefits).
- Management noted a key difference between now and the Great Recession
is a better balance sheet and continued access to financing, though financing
appears to be more selective, with CMBS terms tightening up.
- Management also noted that rating agencies are comfortable with its
balance sheet (27% secured debt, 52% unencumbered NOI), suggesting

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 5


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

relatively low near-term risk of credit downgrade, despite declining NOI


profile near-term. Management also remains committed to its dividend near
term, pointing to its still strong AFFO coverage (~62% AFFO payout ratio).
- CBL recently lowered its FY17 ssNOI to -1% to -2% (and we project that
its 2018 ssNOI will be lower than 2017); see Exhibit 7.
- Company continues to underwrite to 8-9% redevelopment yields, which no
longer appear to create value in many cases given recent move in B mall
cap rates, indicating defensive cap ex. Management justified the investment
by noting the healthy cash flows of the assets, as well as the strategic value
of the investment to maintain the malls competitive positioning and also
expects that cap rates will ultimately re-compress at some point once rational
asset pricing returns.
- Redev activity largely funded by FCF (~$100-150M), though recently
supplemented by asset sales including Oklahoma City outlet ($130M, ~40%
IRR, per mgmt.). Mgmt intends to fund future redev via its FCF, now that its
portfolio disposition program has ended, though it does not rule out
opportunistic asset sales.

DDR Corp. (DDR: Neutral)


- If 2017 store closures approximate 2008 levels, mgmt. believes its
occupancy downside could be ~200bps. We note that the low-end of DDRs
revised ssNOI guidance (0 to -1.5%) assumes 150bps of occupancy loss this
year. Watch list back to normal.
- Nothing to report on Puerto Rico asset sales, per management, despite
active marketing of the assets we believe. We did, however, hear from
brokers that DDR has sold / is close to selling two of its smaller Puerto Rico
assets to local buyers.
- Still seeing demand from the likes of TJX, Ross and grocers. We heard
from brokers that Lidl (German grocer coming to the U.S.) may seek space
in public REIT portfolios and not build their own space, as previously
expected.
- Management clarified that the implied valuation of the BX JV assets was
closer to 7.5%, not the 9%+ range as reported by some.
- Managements decision to purchase stock recently was influenced by the
fact that the window was open, management had no material non-public
information and believes the stock is meaningfully undervalued.

General Growth (GGP: Neutral)


- Management noted that 1M of the 1.2M of vacated space this year has been
re-leased at positive spreads.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 6


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

- GGP continues to pare back on B malls, selling 5 in 2016 and 1 recently in


2017. We understand from brokers that GGP is marketing more B malls for
sales, though exact number and asset pricing unclear.
- Most of GGPs NYC street retail vacancies are under discussion / contract
and expects to have most, if not all leased, by year-end. We think this will
facilitate a sale of the assets.
- KidZania coming to GGP malls Frisco (Dallas) in 2018 and Oakbrook
(Chicago) in 2019. Management indicated a desire to add more (maybe at it
Tysons asset).
- GGP is Dicks Sporting Goods largest U.S. landlord, notable given Dicks
recent comments. Recall that ~25% of Dicks leases expire over the next
three years and we expect it to use its pricing power over landlords during
the course of upcoming negotiations (per managements comments on its
recent call), implying less rent growth for those assets.
- GGP remains committed to moving forward with Norwalk mall
development. It will likely be a bit bigger, with ~200k sq ft of inline space.

Macerich (MAC: Neutral)


- Mgmt estimates that ssNOI will range between 2.3-5.3% from 2017-22.
- Seeing continued demand at its malls and noted it is signing leases at its
best malls w/ OCRs ~15%, suggesting tenants are willing to pay more to be
in the best malls. Mgmt also remains confident in its 8%+ yield targets for
its $250M redev pipeline.
- Management open to opportunistic B mall sales, which would likely fund
stock buybacks. Management is also comfortable with potential FFO
dilution from the potential sale of assets to buy back stock, should there be
sufficient strategic rationale.
- ~86% of NOI in MACs top 40 malls and management is now open to
further winnowing its portfolio beyond its top 40 (great assets, per
Management) prior portfolio target, with perhaps a top 30 (phenomenal
assets) focus to best position its portfolio for l/t cash flow / asset value.
- We note that MAC has much easier 2H17 ssNOI comps (1H16 ssNOI was
~7%, while 2H16 ssNOI was ~3%).
- MAC has lowered its combined JCPenney (27 today), Macys (39), Sears
(21) to a combined 87 stores today vs 129 at 4Q12.

Simon Property Group (SPG: Buy)


Last week, SPG issued $1.35B of unsecured debt (3.04% / 10-yr), with
proceeds used to retire an existing $1.25B (5.65%) of notes. The offering
will result in a one-time charge of $0.36/sh, but will likely result in

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 7


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

meaningful interest savings l/t. The offering also highlights SPGs


significant access to and cost of capital advantages.)
- Approximately 49% of SPG NOI is now sourced from US malls (ex-Mills
and its Fashion Outlets platform), the first time in its history that less than
50% of its NOI was derived from its traditional mall platform and down
from ~60% pre-WPG spin (2014). While A malls will remain a focus of
the company, management indicated it will continue to evolve the
portfolio near-term which we interpret to mean that more NOI likely to
come from non-mall assets (including apartment, office, and hotel).
- SPG has 108 malls today, down from 180 10 years ago and will likely have
less in 10 years (SPG has 13 malls in Other Assets, which we expect will
likely be sold at some point). That said, SPG continues to view malls as a
vital element to local communities and a center of commerce where the
community comes together and remains committed to the mall business.
- SPG has redeveloped >90 department stores over the past 10 years and will
continue to fund its redev pipeline (~$1.6B / 8-9% yields) with FCF (~$1-
1.5B / year).
- SPG remains committed to growing its dividend, funding its redev (primary
external growth vehicle) and will likely continue to opportunistically acquire
stock ($2B buyback program) should the stock remain near the current level.
- Management insisted we run the portfolio for cash flowless concerned
about cap rates. We have good real estate.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 8


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 1: Retail REIT Price Targets, NAV Estimates, and FFO Estimate Changes
PT/ Previous NAV
Stock Closing Price Price Target Upside to 2017 FFO MSUSA MSUSA Implied Applied Warranted Price to
Company Ticker Rating 5/26/2017 Prev. New PT Multiple NAV Est. Est. Cap Rate Cap Rate Discount NAV
Malls
CBL & Associates CBL Neutral $ 7.85 $ 11.00 $ 8.50 8% 3.9x $ 24.50 $ 14.50 10.8% 9.1% -40% 54%
General Growth Properties GGP Neutral $ 22.65 $ 30.00 $ 24.50 8% 15.6x $ 33.00 $ 26.00 6.3% 5.5% -5% 87%
Simon Property SPG Buy $ 157.26 $ 198.00 $ 178.00 13% 15.4x $ 208.00 $ 178.00 6.3% 5.4% 0% 88%
Taubman Centers TCO Buy $ 62.33 $ 82.00 $ 76.00 22% 19.9x $ 105.00 $ 84.00 6.4% 5.0% -10% 74%
The Macerich Company MAC Neutral $ 58.77 $ 84.00 $ 63.00 7% 15.9x $ 96.00 $ 70.00 6.4% 5.3% -10% 84%
Mall REITs Wtd. Avg. 11.7% 6.4% 86%

Shopping Centers
American Assets AAT Neutral $ 39.43 $ 44.00 $ 42.50 8% 21.1x $ 49.00 $ 47.00 5.8% 5.3% -10% 84%
Brixmor Property BRX Neutral $ 18.53 $ 25.00 $ 19.00 3% 9.0x $ 31.00 $ 23.50 8.3% 7.2% -20% 79%
DDR DDR Neutral $ 8.96 $ 15.00 $ 9.50 6% 8.7x $ 19.00 $ 12.50 8.7% 7.4% -25% 72%
Federal Realty FRT Buy $ 126.32 $ 159.00 $ 140.00 11% 23.6x $ 159.00 $ 140.00 5.4% 4.9% 0% 90%
Kimco Realty KIM Neutral $ 18.03 $ 24.00 $ 19.00 5% 12.5x $ 26.50 $ 21.00 7.5% 6.9% -10% 86%
S.C REITs Wtd. Avg. 6.8% 5.6% 84%

MSUSA Coverage Wtd. Avg. 10.5% 6.2% 86%

MSUSA Estimates MSUSA Estimates


2016 FFO 2017 FFO 2018 FFO FFO YOY Growth 2016 AFFO 2017 AFFO 2018 AFFO AFFO YOY Growth
Company Ticker Actual Prev. New Prev. New 2017 2018 Prev. Actual Prev. New Prev. New 2017 2018
Malls
CBL & Associates CBL $ 2.69 $ 2.31 $ 2.18 $ 2.36 $ 2.25 -19.1% 3.2% $ 1.90 $ 1.90 $ 1.77 $ 1.73 $ 1.82 $ 1.77 -8.7% 2.3%
General Growth Properties GGP $ 1.53 $ 1.57 $ 1.57 $ 1.67 $ 1.62 2.7% 3.1% $ 1.20 $ 1.20 $ 1.24 $ 1.24 $ 1.34 $ 1.30 3.2% 4.8%
Simon Property SPG $ 10.87 $ 11.55 $ 11.53 $ 12.18 $ 12.14 6.1% 5.3% $ 9.16 $ 9.16 $ 8.72 $ 9.78 $ 9.68 $ 10.31 6.8% 5.4%
Taubman Centers TCO $ 3.58 $ 3.79 $ 3.81 $ 4.18 $ 4.06 6.5% 6.6% $ 1.62 $ 1.62 $ 2.77 $ 1.83 $ 3.15 $ 2.13 13.0% 16.4%
The Macerich Company MAC $ 4.08 $ 3.94 $ 3.95 $ 4.11 $ 4.13 -3.2% 4.6% $ 3.30 $ 3.30 $ 3.20 $ 3.24 $ 3.37 $ 3.38 -1.7% 4.3%
Mall REITs Wtd. Avg. 3.9% 4.7% 5.1% 5.6%

Shopping Centers
American Assets AAT $ 1.85 $ 2.06 $ 2.01 $ 2.23 $ 2.18 8.8% 8.5% $ 1.39 $ 1.39 $ 1.49 $ 1.57 $ 1.61 $ 1.66 13.3% 5.7%
Brixmor Property BRX $ 2.07 $ 2.11 $ 2.10 $ 2.18 $ 2.14 1.4% 1.9% $ 1.57 $ 1.57 $ 1.66 $ 1.58 $ 1.71 $ 1.67 0.6% 5.7%
DDR DDR $ 1.28 $ 1.10 $ 1.09 $ 1.11 $ 1.07 -14.8% -1.8% $ 1.15 $ 1.15 $ 0.96 $ 0.90 $ 0.97 $ 0.87 -21.5% -3.3%
Federal Realty FRT $ 5.65 $ 5.84 $ 5.92 $ 6.23 $ 6.22 4.7% 5.1% $ 4.67 $ 4.67 $ 4.89 $ 4.82 $ 5.23 $ 5.05 3.3% 4.8%
Kimco Realty KIM $ 1.50 $ 1.54 $ 1.52 $ 1.64 $ 1.58 1.6% 3.9% $ 1.14 $ 1.14 $ 1.27 $ 1.18 $ 1.35 $ 1.24 3.4% 5.1%
S.C REITs Wtd. Avg. 1.1% 3.5% 0.5% 4.1%

MSUSA Coverage Wtd. Avg. 3.2% 4.4% 3.9% 5.3%

Source: Company reports, SNL Financial, Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 9


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 2: Mall REITs 2017 & 2018 FFO Estimate Changes

Malls

CBL Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


2017 FFO $ 2.31 $ 2.18 $ (0.13) -5.7%
2018 FFO $ 2.36 $ 2.25 $ (0.11) -4.7%

GGP Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


2017 FFO $ 1.57 $ 1.57 $ - 0.0%
2018 FFO $ 1.67 $ 1.62 $ (0.05) -3.1%

SPG Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


2017 FFO $ 11.55 $ 11.53 $ (0.02) -0.1%
2018 FFO $ 12.18 $ 12.14 $ (0.04) -0.3%

TCO Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


2017 FFO $ 3.79 $ 3.81 $ 0.02 0.5%
2018 FFO $ 4.18 $ 4.06 $ (0.12) -2.9%

MAC Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


2017 FFO $ 3.94 $ 3.95 $ 0.01 0.3%
2018 FFO $ 4.11 $ 4.13 $ 0.02 0.5%

Source: Company reports, Mizuho Securities USA.

Exhibit 4: Shopping Center REITs 2017 & 2018 FFO Estimate Changes

Shopping Centers

AAT Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


2017 FFO $ 2.06 $ 2.01 $ (0.05) -2.4%
2018 FFO $ 2.23 $ 2.18 $ (0.05) -2.2%

BRX Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


2017 FFO $ 2.11 $ 2.10 $ (0.01) -0.5%
2018 FFO $ 2.18 $ 2.14 $ (0.04) -1.8%

DDR Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


2017 FFO $ 1.10 $ 1.09 $ (0.01) -0.9%
2018 FFO $ 1.11 $ 1.07 $ (0.04) -3.6%

FRT Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


2017 FFO $ 5.84 $ 5.92 $ 0.08 1.3%
2018 FFO $ 6.23 $ 6.22 $ (0.01) -0.2%

KIM Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


2017 FFO $ 1.50 $ 1.52 $ 0.02 1.6%
2018 FFO $ 1.52 $ 1.58 $ 0.06 3.9%

Source: Company reports, Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 10


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 5: 1Q17 Cap Rate & NAV Estimate Updates - Malls

Prior Applied New Change


Cap Rate Cap Rate (Bps)
Malls
CBL 7.6% 9.1% 150
GGP 4.9% 5.5% 60
SPG 4.8% 5.4% 60
TCO 4.4% 5.0% 60
MAC 4.6% 5.3% 70

Malls

CBL Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


NAV/sh $ 24.50 $ 14.50 $ (10.00) -40.8%
Price Target $ 11.00 $ 8.50 $ (2.50) -22.7%
Rating Neutral Neutral

GGP Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


NAV/sh $ 33.00 $ 26.00 $ (7.00) -21.2%
Price Target $ 30.00 $ 24.50 $ (5.50) -18.3%
Rating Buy Neutral

SPG Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


NAV/sh $ 208.00 $ 178.00 $ (30.00) -14.4%
Price Target $ 198.00 $ 178.00 $ (20.00) -10.1%
Rating Neutral Buy

TCO Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


NAV/sh $ 105.00 $ 84.00 $ (21.00) -20.0%
Price Target $ 84.00 $ 76.00 $ (8.00) -9.5%
Rating Buy Buy

MAC Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


NAV/sh $ 96.00 $ 70.00 $ (26.00) -27.1%
Price Target $ 82.00 $ 63.00 $ (19.00) -23.2%
Rating Buy Neutral

Source: Company reports, Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 11


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 6: 1Q17 Cap Rate & NAV Estimate Updates - Shopping Centers

Prior Applied New Change


Cap Rate Cap Rate (Bps)
Shopping Centers
AAT 4.8% 5.30% 50
BRX 6.2% 7.20% 100
DDR 6.1% 7.35% 125
FRT 4.4% 4.90% 50
KIM 5.90% 6.90% 100

Shopping Centers

AAT Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


NAV/sh $ 49.00 $ 47.00 $ (2.00) -4.1%
Price Target $ 44.00 $ 42.50 $ (1.50) -3.4%
Rating Neutral Neutral

BRX Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


NAV/sh $ 31.00 $ 23.50 $ (7.50) -24.2%
Price Target $ 25.00 $ 19.00 $ (6.00) -24.0%
Rating Neutral Neutral

DDR Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


NAV/sh $ 19.00 $ 12.50 $ (6.50) -34.2%
Price Target $ 15.00 $ 9.50 $ (5.50) -36.7%
Rating Neutral Neutral

FRT Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


NAV/sh $ 159.00 $ 140.00 $ (19.00) -11.9%
Price Target $ 159.00 $ 140.00 $ (19.00) -11.9%
Rating Buy Buy

KIM Prev. New Chg ($) Chg ($)


NAV/sh $ 26.50 $ 21.00 $ (5.50) -20.8%
Price Target $ 24.00 $ 19.00 $ (5.00) -20.8%
Rating Neutral Neutral

Source: Company reports, Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 12


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 7: 2017/2018 ssNOI Tracker Moderation Implied in 2017 & 2018


SSNOI 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 2009 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016 1Q17 2017E 2017Guidance 2018E
CBL -6.0% -0.8% -1.6% -4.0% -1.5% -1.2% -0.6% -3.6% -0.5% -1.6% 2.8% 3.4% 2.6% 0.3% 2.3% -1.0% 0.2% -2%-0% -1.0%
GGP 5.4% 3.4% -0.5% -4.9% 0.3% -3.3% -3.0% -5.8% -7.0% -4.4% 5.2% 4.0% 3.8% 5.1% 4.4% 2.5% 2.8% ~3.0% 2.7%
SPG 2.8% 5.4% 1.9% 3.0% 0.8% 2.7% 0.1% -0.6% na 0.3% 5.1% 3.2% 2.2% 3.8% 3.6% 3.8% 3.0% ~3.0% 3.0%
TCO 6.9% 3.3% 5.7% 4.0% 4.9% 0.3% -3.7% -7.5% -0.1% -2.7% 5.8% 6.2% 4.5% -0.1% 3.9% 2.8% 2.6% ~2.5% 2.5%
MAC 3.0% 3.4% 2.2% -2.4% 1.4% -0.1% -1.0% -1.6% -0.2% -0.7% 7.5% 6.5% 4.2% 2.1% 5.0% 2.2% 3.1% 3.0% - 4.0% 2.8%
Mall - Weighted Average 0.8% -1.0% 3.4% 3.0% 2.9% 2.8%

SSNOI 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 2008 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 2009 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016 1Q17 2017E 2017Guidance 2018E
AAT na na na na na na na na na na 7.1% 5.4% 7.6% 0.3% 5.1% -3.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.5%
BRX na na na na na na na na na na 2.8% 3.5% 2.0% 1.6% 2.5% 3.2% 2.0% 2.0 - 3.0% 1.8%
DDR 2.0% 2.5% na na 1.7% -2.2% -5.0% na -1.5% -3.6% 3.4% 3.1% 3.4% 2.0% 3.0% -0.2% -0.5% -1.5%-0% -0.6%
FRT 3.7% 4.1% 4.8% 5.5% 4.2% 1.4% 1.6% 2.6% 1.0% 1.6% 4.2% 3.5% 1.5% 3.0% 3.1% 4.3% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
KIM 3.3% 2.4% 2.6% 1.3% na -0.5% -1.8% -3.6% -1.1% -2.7% 1.5% 3.1% 3.3% 2.7% 2.8% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% - 3.0% 1.8%
Shopping Center - Weighted Average 1.4% -0.9% 3.0% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8%

Retail REITs - Weighted Average 0.9% -1.0% 3.3% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6%

Source: SNL Financial, Company reports, Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 13


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Appendix A: Retail REITs Fundamentals

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 14


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 8: SSNOI Trending Below Long-term Averages

Mall REITs Wtd Avg ssNOI Mall L/T Average = 3.3%


Higher-Productivity Cohort Lower-Productivity Cohort
6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%

1Q17
2017E
2018E
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
Notes:
1. Higher-Productivity Cohort: GGP, MAC, SPG and TCO; Lower-Productivity Cohort: CBL, PEI and WPG.
2. 2001-2003 numbers only represent GGP, SPG and TCO.
3. WPG's leasing spreads are only available for 2015 and 1Q16.
4. TCO (2004-2007): consolidated property only. PEI (2006): consolidated property only.

Shopping Center REITs Wtd Avg ssNOI S.C. L/T Average = 2.3%
Higher-Productivity Cohort Lower-Productivity Cohort
6.0%

4.0%

2.0%

0.0%

-2.0%

-4.0%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
1Q17
2017E
2018E

Notes:
1. 2001-2003 numbers only represent REG.
2. 2004-2005 numbers only represent FRT and REG.
3. Higher-Productivity Cohort: AAT, FRT and REG; Lower-Productivity Cohort: BRX, DDR, EQY, KIM
and WRI.

Source: Company reports, Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 15


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 9: Re-leasing Spreads Moderating, Now Back At / Below Long-term Averages


Mall REITs Wtd Avg Leasing Spread Mall L/T Average = 13.1%
Higher-Productivity Cohort Lower-Productivity Cohort
30.0%

20.0%

10.0%

0.0%

-10.0%

-20.0%

1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Shopping Center REITs Wtd Avg Leasing Spread S.C. L/T Average = 9.9%

Higher-Productivity Cohort Lower-Productivity Cohort


20.0%

15.0%

10.0%

5.0%

0.0%

3Q16
1Q16

2Q16

4Q16

1Q17
2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: Company reports, Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 16


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 10: Occupancy Above Long-term Averages

Mall REITs Occupancy Malls L/T Average = 92.9%


Higher-Productivity Cohort Lower-Productivity Cohort
98.0%

96.0%

94.0%

92.0%

90.0%

88.0%

1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Shopping Center REITs Occupancy S.C. L/T Average = 94.2%
Higher-Productivity Cohort Lower-Productivity Cohort
97.0%
96.0%
95.0%
94.0%
93.0%
92.0%
91.0%
90.0%
1Q16
2Q16
3Q16
4Q16
1Q17
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015

Source: Company reports, Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 17


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 11: Occupancy Cost Ratios Also Above Long-term Averages

Mall REITs Wtd Avg Occupancy Cost Mall L/T Average = 12.9%
Higher-Productivity Cohort Lower-Productivity Cohort
15.0%

14.0%

13.0%

12.0%

11.0%

1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015
Source: Company reports, Mizuho Securities USA.

Exhibit 12: ABR Growth Near Long-term Averages

Shopping Center REITs Wtd ABR Growth (%) S.C. L/T Average = 3.3%

Higher-Productivity Cohort Lower-Productivity Cohort


6.0%

5.0%

4.0%

3.0%

2.0%

1.0%

0.0%
1Q16

2Q16

3Q16

4Q16

1Q17
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Source: Company reports, Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 18


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Appendix B: Retail REITs Valuation

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 19


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 2: Retail REITs Lagging RMZ by ~1400bps YTD

YTD'17 FY'16
60%
50%

31.0%
40%

23.7%
30%

13.2%

10.4%
9.7%

9.5%
7.9%
9.4%
20%

6.5%
4.5%

4.2%
3.0%
1.1%
10%
0%

-0.4%
-0.2%

-3.2%
-4.2%
-10%

-8.2%
-8.6%

-11.2%
-12.5%

-20%
-17.5%

-30%
-40%

Source: FactSet and Mizuho Securities USA.

Exhibit 13: Retail REITs Screen Well on P/NAV vs Implied Cap Rate vs Other Major
Sectors

(Implied Cap Rate)

7.0%
Office
Malls Industrial
6.5% Triple Net

Shopping
6.0% Centers
Health Care
5.5%
Apartments
Single Family
5.0% Rental

4.5% Storage

4.0%
65.0% 75.0% 85.0% 95.0% 105.0% 115.0% 125.0%
(P/NAV)

Source: SNL Financial and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 20


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 14: Retail REITs Screen Well on FFO Multiple vs YOY FFO Growth

(FY17 FFO Growth)

20.0%

15.0%
Single Family
Rental
10.0% Storage
Malls Health Care
Apartments
5.0%

0.0% Office Triple Net


Shopping
Centers Industrial
-5.0%

-10.0%
65.0% 75.0% 85.0% 95.0% 105.0% 115.0% 125.0%
(P/NAV)

Source: SNL Financial and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 21


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 15: TCO (Malls) & AAT, FRT (Shopping Centers) Most Attractive Among Peers on
P/NAV vs Implied Cap Rate

(P/NAV)
100%
SPG
90%
GGP
MAC
80%
TCO
70%

60%
CBL
50%

40%
5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0% 11.0% 12.0%
(Implied Cap Rate)

(P/NAV)
100%

95%
FRT
90%
AAT KIM
85%
BRX
80%

75% DDR

70%

65%

60%
5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%
(Implied Cap Rate)

Source: Company reports, Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 22


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 16: TCO (Malls) & AAT, FRT (Shopping Centers) Screen Best on FFO Multiple vs
YOY FFO Growth

(FY17 FFO Growth Est.)


15.0%
TCO
10.0%
SPG
5.0%

0.0% GGP

-5.0% MAC

-10.0%

-15.0% CBL

-20.0%
3.0x 8.0x 13.0x 18.0x 23.0x
(2017 FFO Multiple)

(FY17 FFO Growth Est.)


15.0%
AAT
10.0%
FRT
5.0%

0.0% KIM
BRX
-5.0%

-10.0%
DDR
-15.0%

-20.0%
0.0x 5.0x 10.0x 15.0x 20.0x 25.0x
(2017 FFO Multiple)

Source: Company reports, Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 23


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Appendix C: Mall REITs Model Updates

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 24


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 17: Earnings Model CBL & Associates Properties (CBL)


CBL & Associates Properties, Inc. (CBL) 2013 2014 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018
A A A A A A A A A E E E E E E E E E
Rental income 726,719 721,774 724,306 180,364 174,727 171,535 184,852 711,478 165,791 167,470 168,261 177,388 678,909 167,679 170,027 170,733 178,454 686,893
less: SLR (1,191) (2,132) (4,207) (149) (1,411) 319 1,175 (66) (73) (799) (803) (805) (2,481) (161) (807) (809) (811) (2,588)
less: above/below market rent (1,566) (1,227) (3,197) (1,076) (906) (783) (301) (3,066) (1,218) (1,269) (1,277) (1,283) (5,048) (1,221) (1,294) (1,296) (1,299) (5,111)
Cash rental income 723,962 718,415 716,902 179,139 172,410 171,071 185,726 708,346 164,500 165,401 166,181 175,299 671,381 166,297 167,926 168,627 176,344 679,194
Tenant reimbursements 294,084 290,561 288,279 73,366 70,096 69,489 67,487 280,438 67,291 60,384 63,172 63,702 254,548 64,152 64,270 65,376 65,490 259,288
Total Property Incom e 1,018,046 1,008,976 1,005,181 252,505 242,506 240,560 253,213 988,784 231,791 225,785 229,352 239,001 925,929 230,449 232,196 234,003 241,834 938,482

Property operating (154,507) (149,774) (141,030) (38,628) (31,060) (35,116) (32,956) (137,760) (34,914) (30,089) (30,252) (30,415) (125,670) (32,028) (32,362) (32,431) (32,505) (129,326)
Maintenance and repairs (57,423) (54,842) (51,516) (14,548) (11,790) (13,236) (14,012) (53,586) (13,352) (12,681) (12,746) (12,806) (51,585) (12,814) (12,943) (12,971) (13,003) (51,732)
Real estate taxes (89,951) (89,281) (90,799) (23,028) (22,834) (22,492) (21,756) (90,110) (22,083) (21,083) (21,188) (21,294) (85,647) (21,626) (21,841) (21,889) (21,940) (87,297)
Total Property Expenses (301,881) (293,897) (283,345) (76,204) (65,684) (70,844) (68,724) (281,456) (70,349) (63,853) (64,185) (64,515) (262,902) (66,467) (67,147) (67,292) (67,448) (268,354)

Consolidated NOI 1,319,927 715,079 721,836 176,301 176,822 169,716 184,489 707,328 161,442 161,932 165,167 174,486 663,027 163,981 165,049 166,711 174,386 670,128
NOI Margin 129.7% 70.9% 71.8% 69.8% 72.9% 70.6% 72.9% 71.5% 69.6% 71.7% 72.0% 73.0% 71.6% 71.2% 71.1% 71.2% 72.1% 71.4%

CBL's prorata share of unconsolidated JVs


JV revenue 125,152 130,458 128,470 30,264 29,836 27,427 31,119 118,646 29,805 29,626 27,887 31,536 118,854 30,193 29,989 28,205 31,865 120,252
Property operating (34,822) (37,415) (37,809) (8,762) (8,421) (10,756) (9,516) (37,455) (8,969) (8,844) (7,996) (9,095) (34,904) (8,711) (8,664) (8,161) (9,234) (34,770)
Unconsolidated NOI 90,330 93,043 90,661 21,502 21,415 16,671 21,603 81,191 20,836 20,783 19,891 22,441 83,951 21,482 21,325 20,044 22,631 85,482

Com bined NOI 1,410,257 808,122 812,497 197,803 198,237 186,387 206,092 788,519 182,278 182,714 185,058 196,927 746,978 185,463 186,374 186,755 197,018 755,610

Management, development and leasing fees 12,438 12,986 10,953 2,581 4,067 4,177 4,100 14,925 3,452 3,563 3,634 3,839 14,487 3,280 3,301 3,334 3,488 13,403
Other revenue 34,731 35,418 31,480 6,767 6,075 6,520 2,054 21,416 1,479 1,943 1,982 2,094 7,498 1,968 1,981 2,001 2,093 8,042
General & administrative (48,866) (50,271) (62,118) (17,168) (16,475) (13,222) (16,467) (63,332) (16,082) (14,450) (14,679) (15,296) (60,507) (14,979) (15,093) (15,210) (15,719) (61,001)
Other expenses (28,825) (32,297) (26,957) (9,685) (5,052) (5,576) (13) (20,326) - - - - - - - - - -
EBITDA 685,643 773,958 765,855 180,298 186,852 178,286 195,766 741,202 171,127 173,770 175,996 187,563 708,456 175,732 176,563 176,880 186,879 716,053

Interest expense (231,856) (239,824) (229,343) (55,231) (53,187) (54,292) (53,608) (216,318) (56,201) (54,718) (54,015) (53,170) (218,104) (52,748) (52,431) (52,270) (51,799) (209,248)
Less: JV interest expense (38,458) (35,464) (6,585) (7,093) (6,109) (6,296) (26,083) (6,161) (6,080) (6,002) (5,908) (24,150) (5,861) (5,826) (5,808) (5,755) (23,250)
Interest income 10,825 14,121 6,467 360 251 451 462 1,524 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,404 5,616 1,404 1,404 1,404 1,404 5,616
Add: JV interest income 1,037 1,026 256 256 207 284 1,003 276 276 276 276 1,104 276 276 276 276 1,104
Add back: SLR 1,191 2,132 4,207 149 1,411 (319) (1,175) 66 73 799 803 805 2,481 161 807 809 811 2,588
Add back: above/below mkt rent 1,566 1,227 3,197 1,076 906 783 301 3,066 1,218 1,269 1,277 1,283 5,048 1,221 1,294 1,296 1,299 5,111
Depreciation and amortization 33,375 (9,153) (11,639) (3,230) (2,777) (431) (2,681) (9,119) (2,843) (2,786) (2,730) (2,676) (11,035) (2,542) (2,647) (2,594) (2,542) (10,325)
Noncontrolling interest in income (loss) of OP (18,041) (3,777) (5,473) 3,127 (1,695) (983) (1,561) (1,112) (713) (713) (713) (713) (2,852) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (4,000)
Discontinued operations (9,372) (219) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Gain (loss) on extinguishment of debt (9,108) 87,893 256 6 - (203) - (197) 4,055 - - - 4,055 - - - - -
Gain on sales of real estate assets (incl. JV's gain) 2,038 5,392 13,252 26,395 32,983 4,259 17,619 81,256 5,994 2,000 2,000 2,000 11,994 2,000 2,000 2,000 2,000 8,000
Gain on investments 2,400 - 16,560 - - - 7,534 7,534 - - - - - - - - - -
Income tax provision (1,305) (4,499) (2,941) 537 51 2,386 (911) 2,063 800 500 500 500 2,300 500 500 500 500 2,000
Loss on impairment 3,436 576 - - - (1,746) (49) (1,795) (1,196) - - - (1,196) - - - - -
Preferred dividends (44,892) (44,892) (44,892) (11,223) (11,223) (11,223) (11,223) (44,892) (11,223) (11,223) (11,223) (11,223) (44,892) (11,223) (11,223) (11,223) (11,223) (44,892)
-
FFO, reported 425,900 545,514 481,068 135,935 146,735 111,066 144,462 538,198 106,610 104,498 107,573 120,142 438,823 107,920 109,718 110,270 120,849 448,757
Gain on extinguishment of debt 9,108 (87,893) (256) - - - - - (4,055) - - - (4,055) - - - - -
Gain on investments (2,400) - (16,560) - - - (7,034) (7,034) - - - - - - - - - -
Litigation settlements, net of related expenses (8,240) (7,763) (1,329) 1,707 - 601 259 2,567 43 - - - 43 - - - - -
Non cash default interest expense - 4,695 - - - 1,374 1,466 2,840 1,307 - - - 1,307 - - - - -
Other - - - (26,395) (28,116) 1,807 (3,281) (55,788) (925) - - - (925) - - - - -
FFO, Operating 424,368 454,553 462,923 111,247 118,619 114,848 135,872 480,783 102,980 104,498 107,573 120,142 435,193 107,920 109,718 110,270 120,849 448,757

AFFO
Tenant improvements (46,940) (46,837) (51,625) (17,899) (21,251) (17,811) (4,391) (61,352) (9,516) (12,000) (12,000) (12,000) (45,516) (12,000) (12,000) (12,000) (12,000) (48,000)
Leasing Capex (2,427) (3,263) (2,665) (658) (426) (421) (594) (2,099) (315) (750) (750) (750) (2,565) (750) (750) (750) (750) (3,000)
Maintenance Capex (38,421) (48,307) (49,704) (4,887) (4,122) (12,813) (16,564) (38,386) (7,654) (11,250) (11,250) (11,250) (41,404) (11,250) (11,250) (11,250) (11,250) (45,000)
AFFO 336,580 356,146 358,929 87,803 92,820 83,803 114,323 378,749 85,495 80,498 83,573 96,142 345,708 83,920 85,718 86,270 96,849 352,757

Weidged avg shares + units 196,572 199,660 199,757 199,926 200,045 200,004 199,381 199,838 199,281 199,236 199,386 199,386 199,322 199,386 199,386 199,386 199,386 199,386

Reported FFO/sh 2.17 2.73 2.41 0.68 0.73 0.56 0.72 2.69 0.53 0.52 0.54 0.60 2.20 0.54 0.55 0.55 0.61 2.25
Operating FFO/sh 2.16 2.28 2.32 0.56 0.59 0.57 0.68 2.41 0.52 0.52 0.54 0.60 2.18 0.54 0.55 0.55 0.61 2.25
AFFO/sh 1.71 1.78 1.80 0.44 0.46 0.41 0.57 1.90 0.43 0.40 0.42 0.48 1.73 0.42 0.43 0.43 0.49 1.77

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 25


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 18: NAV Snapshot CBL & Associates Properties (CBL)


Assets
Operating Real Estate: FTM NOI Cap Rate
Malls 698,536 8.8% 9.1% 9.3%
Associated centers 33,060 9.1% 9.3% 9.6%
Community centers 24,253 9.4% 9.6% 9.9%
Offices and other 8,005 9.4% 9.6% 9.9%
All Properties 763,854 8.9% 9.1% 9.4%
Strip center value 8,615,027 8,378,748 8,155,085

Total operating real estate value 8,615,027 8,378,748 8,155,085

CIP 242,363 242,363 242,363

Cash 27,553 27,553 27,553


Receivables 34,975 34,975 34,975
Other assets, net 196,419 196,419 196,419

Total assets 9,116,337 8,880,058 8,656,395

Liabilities + Preferred Equity

Consolidated debt 4,522,480 4,522,480 4,522,480


Unconsoildated debt 597,395 597,395 597,395
Total debt 5,119,875 5,119,875 5,119,875

Accounts payable + other liabilities 277,568 277,568 277,568


Preferred Equity 626,250 626,250 626,250

Total liabilities 6,023,693 6,023,693 6,023,693

Net asset value 3,092,644 2,856,365 2,632,702

Shares outstanding 199,386 199,386 199,386

NAV/sh 15.50 14.50 13.00

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 26


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 19: Earnings Model GGP, Inc (GGP)


General Growth Properties, Inc. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018
Earnings Estimate (000s) Full Year Full Year Full Year 1QA 2QA 3QA 4QA Full Year 1QA 2QE 3QE 4QE Full Year 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE Full Year
Cons ol i da ted Res ul ts :
Mi ni mum rents $1,591,121 $1,584,353 $1,464,834 $367,634 $360,236 $344,290 $363,942 $1,436,102 $343,937 $343,929 $342,396 $368,050 $1,398,311 $352,891 $355,541 $357,686 $382,052 $1,448,170
Tena nt recoveri es $726,744 $734,100 $682,746 $170,849 $168,395 $160,566 $161,838 $661,648 $160,989 $165,831 $168,960 $183,327 $679,107 $166,487 $158,547 $163,418 $179,337 $667,789
Overa ge rents $56,038 $51,091 $43,421 $8,046 $4,366 $6,418 $23,277 $42,107 $5,869 $5,032 $8,577 $22,066 $41,544 $5,317 $5,378 $8,924 $22,818 $42,438
Other $90,483 $88,956 $100,533 $21,367 $17,968 $18,712 $32,489 $90,536 $18,770 $15,241 $18,429 $29,502 $81,943 $18,205 $18,940 $21,465 $33,679 $92,289
Noncontrol l i ng i nteres ts $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Operating Revenue $2,464,386 $2,458,500 $2,291,534 $567,896 $550,965 $529,986 $581,546 $2,230,393 $529,565 $530,033 $538,362 $602,946 $2,200,906 $542,900 $538,406 $551,494 $617,886 $2,250,686

Rea l es ta te ta xes $247,521 $226,745 $219,891 $57,323 $56,566 $57,500 $55,142 $226,531 $56,743 $57,203 $56,575 $60,697 $231,219 $58,215 $58,596 $57,227 $61,011 $235,049
Property ma i ntena nce cos ts $72,208 $67,608 $59,588 $17,397 $11,902 $11,517 $13,929 $54,745 $14,884 $13,809 $13,701 $14,717 $57,111 $17,272 $14,223 $14,326 $15,267 $61,088
Ma rketi ng $25,945 $23,238 $21,555 $2,040 $2,719 $2,226 $6,067 $13,052 $2,127 $3,452 $3,425 $5,518 $14,523 $3,531 $3,556 $3,582 $5,718 $16,386
Other property opera ti ng cos ts $356,930 $335,156 $299,945 $69,811 $71,135 $72,946 $66,387 $280,279 $68,477 $69,092 $75,439 $80,914 $293,922 $71,625 $71,101 $71,646 $76,225 $290,597
Provi s i on for doubtful a ccounts $4,169 $8,146 $8,030 $3,394 $1,705 $562 $2,348 $8,009 $3,445 $7,199 $1,717 $1,839 $14,200 $3,512 $3,522 $1,781 $1,901 $10,716
Operating Expenses $706,773 $660,893 $609,009 $149,965 $144,027 $144,751 $143,873 $582,616 $145,676 $150,755 $150,857 $163,685 $610,974 $154,154 $150,997 $148,562 $160,122 $613,836
Consolidated Net Operating Income (NOI) $1,757,613 $1,797,607 $1,682,525 $417,931 $406,938 $385,235 $437,673 $1,647,777 $383,889 $379,278 $387,505 $439,260 $1,589,932 $388,745 $387,409 $402,932 $457,764 $1,636,850

Uncons ol i da ted Res ul ts


Mi ni mum rents $392,114 $392,345 $509,448 $134,939 $138,590 $142,663 $159,679 $575,871 $157,268 $153,074 $147,988 $161,041 $619,371 $160,020 $155,753 $150,578 $163,859 $630,210
Tena nt recoveri es $159,579 $172,528 $222,672 $58,257 $57,180 $60,698 $62,781 $238,916 $62,212 $69,104 $65,692 $71,517 $268,524 $76,488 $70,928 $68,061 $74,990 $290,468
Overa ge rents $19,044 $14,898 $19,166 $3,500 $2,139 $3,929 $10,042 $19,610 $3,085 $3,061 $4,440 $9,662 $20,249 $3,200 $3,115 $4,216 $9,832 $20,363
Other $27,090 $16,038 $22,101 $5,912 $5,536 $5,760 $8,108 $25,316 $6,348 $6,115 $5,975 $8,177 $26,615 $8,001 $7,788 $6,023 $9,832 $31,643
Noncontrol l i ng i nteres ts $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Operating Revenue $597,827 $595,809 $773,387 $202,608 $203,445 $213,050 $240,610 $859,713 $228,913 $231,354 $224,094 $250,397 $934,759 $247,710 $237,584 $228,878 $258,512 $972,684
Rea l es ta te ta xes $51,543 $54,201 $66,936 $15,694 $12,966 $17,204 $17,725 $63,589 $18,253 $18,369 $17,759 $19,325 $73,705 $20,803 $20,248 $19,575 $21,302 $81,927
Property ma i ntena nce cos ts $17,108 $19,045 $20,397 $5,403 $4,625 $4,794 $5,539 $20,361 $5,734 $5,511 $5,328 $6,120 $22,692 $7,201 $7,009 $6,776 $7,374 $28,359
Ma rketi ng $7,844 $7,159 $9,654 $4,420 $1,951 $1,861 $3,335 $11,567 $2,369 $3,061 $2,960 $4,026 $12,416 $3,200 $3,115 $3,012 $4,096 $13,423
Other property opera ti ng cos ts $93,177 $84,146 $105,562 $25,321 $25,751 $27,837 $27,563 $106,472 $27,001 $30,615 $29,598 $32,208 $119,422 $35,204 $31,151 $30,116 $32,772 $129,242
Provi s i on for doubtful a ccounts $1,344 $1,374 $2,680 $1,946 $2,552 $964 $1,052 $6,514 $964 $3,061 $1,480 $1,610 $7,116 $1,280 $1,246 $753 $819 $4,098
Operating Expenses $171,016 $165,925 $205,229 $52,784 $47,845 $52,660 $55,214 $208,503 $54,321 $60,617 $57,123 $63,289 $235,351 $67,689 $62,769 $60,231 $66,363 $257,051
Unconsolidated NOI $426,811 $429,884 $568,158 $149,824 $155,600 $160,390 $185,396 $651,210 $174,592 $170,737 $166,971 $187,108 $699,408 $180,021 $174,816 $168,647 $192,149 $715,633
Combined NOI $2,184,424 $2,227,491 $2,250,683 $567,755 $562,538 $545,625 $623,069 $2,298,987 $558,481 $550,014 $554,476 $626,368 $2,289,340 $568,766 $562,225 $571,579 $649,914 $2,352,484

Cons ol i da ted: Ma na gement fees a nd other corp. revenues $68,792 $70,887 $86,595 $33,741 $18,917 $20,428 $22,728 $95,814 $28,143 $28,168 $28,611 $32,043 $116,964 $28,852 $28,613 $29,308 $32,837 $119,610
Cons ol i da ted: Property ma na gement a nd other cos ts ($164,175) ($154,635) ($160,836) ($30,594) ($38,153) ($37,625) ($31,613) ($137,985) ($40,887) ($31,802) ($32,302) ($33,162) ($138,153) ($29,859) ($29,612) ($30,332) ($33,984) ($123,788)
Condo s a l es $0 $0 $0 $141,419 $35,404 $45,894 $37,463 $260,180 $48,493 $46,024 $46,024 $46,024 $186,564 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cos t of condo s a l es $0 $0 $0 ($105,195) ($26,336) ($34,139) ($27,867) ($193,537) ($36,878) ($35,000) ($35,000) ($35,000) ($141,878) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cons ol i da ted: G&A ($49,237) ($64,048) ($50,405) ($13,427) ($14,649) ($13,237) ($14,432) ($55,745) ($14,683) ($13,251) ($13,459) ($15,074) ($56,467) ($13,572) ($13,460) ($13,787) ($15,447) ($56,267)
Consolidated EBITDA $1,612,993 $1,649,811 $1,557,879 $443,875 $382,121 $366,556 $423,952 $1,616,504 $368,077 $373,416 $381,378 $434,091 $1,556,962 $374,165 $372,949 $388,121 $441,170 $1,576,405
Uncons ol i da ted: Ma na gement fees a nd other corp. revenues $3,649 $0 $0 $0 $48 $48 $48 $144 $48 $49 $47 $53 $196 $52 $50 $48 $54 $204
Uncons ol i da ted: Property ma na gement a nd other cos ts ($25,959) ($28,529) ($32,027) ($8,654) ($8,460) ($8,644) ($10,363) ($36,121) ($9,325) ($9,254) ($8,964) ($10,016) ($37,559) ($9,908) ($9,503) ($9,155) ($10,340) ($38,907)
Uncons ol i da ted: G&A ($7,317) ($4,389) ($7,467) ($94) ($404) ($184) ($529) ($1,211) ($200) ($324) ($314) ($351) ($1,188) ($347) ($333) ($320) ($362) ($1,362)
Unconsolidated EBITDA $397,184 $396,966 $528,664 $141,076 $146,784 $151,610 $174,552 $614,022 $165,115 $161,207 $157,740 $176,794 $660,857 $169,818 $165,030 $159,219 $181,501 $675,568
Combined EBITDA $2,010,177 $2,046,777 $2,086,543 $584,951 $528,905 $518,166 $598,504 $2,230,526 $533,192 $534,623 $539,118 $610,885 $2,217,819 $543,983 $537,979 $547,340 $622,671 $2,251,973
1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18
Ma s ter Pl a nned Communi ti es (MPC) NOI $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Depreci a ti on on non-i ncome produci ng a s s ets ($12,232) ($11,806) ($11,360) ($3,110) ($4,113) ($4,242) ($4,152) ($15,617) ($4,319) ($4,500) ($4,500) ($4,500) ($17,819) ($4,500) ($4,500) ($4,500) ($4,500) ($18,000)
Preferred uni t di s tri buti ons ($9,287) ($8,964) ($8,883) ($2,201) ($2,201) ($2,237) ($2,040) ($8,679) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Preferred di vi dends ($14,077) ($15,936) ($15,936) ($3,984) ($3,983) ($3,984) ($3,984) ($15,935) ($3,984) ($3,984) ($3,984) ($3,984) ($15,936) ($3,984) ($3,984) ($3,984) ($3,984) ($15,936)
Interes t i ncome $11,662 $32,196 $53,372 $17,150 $14,530 $15,491 $13,563 $60,734 $9,078 $9,078 $9,078 $9,078 $36,312 $9,078 $9,078 $9,078 $9,078 $36,312
Defa ul t i nteres t ($3,964) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Interes t expens e rel a ti ng to exti ngui s hed debt $160 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Ma rk-to-ma rket a dj. on exti ngui s hed debt ($14,871) ($1,892) $1,365 $294 $511 $1,287 $1,154 $3,246 $90 $0 $0 $0 $90 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Wri te-off of ma rk-to-ma rket a dj. on exti ngui s hed debt $714 ($9,831) ($13,590) $0 $0 $2,290 $0 $2,290 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Ga i n on debt exti ngui s hment ($7,312) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $54,138 $54,138 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Interes t on exi s ti ng debt ($885,196) ($834,331) ($793,113) ($201,080) ($203,090) ($201,183) ($193,043) ($798,396) ($190,381) ($189,406) ($189,158) ($189,273) ($758,219) ($188,932) ($188,485) ($188,357) ($186,581) ($752,354)
Wa rra nt a djus tment ($40,546) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Los s on exti ngui s hment of debt ($36,478) $0 $0 ($36,069) $0 $0 ($205) ($36,274) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
(Provi s i on for) benefi t from i ncome ta xes ($476) ($7,813) $37,948 ($2,988) $2,160 ($132) ($478) ($1,438) ($4,630) $1,100 $1,109 $1,253 ($1,168) ($569) ($562) ($572) ($650) ($2,352)
Recovery of l oa n l os s $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $6,659 $0 $6,659 ($2,379) $0 $0 $0 ($2,379) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
FFO from di s conti nued ops $32,577 $149,841 $8,092 $1,412 $1,626 $2,916 ($452) $5,502 ($108) $0 $0 $0 ($108) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
(Los s ) ga i n on forei gn currency $0 ($18,049) ($44,984) $8,936 $7,893 ($657) ($2,086) $14,086 $3,183 $0 $0 $0 $3,183 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Provi s i ons for i mpa i rment $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Reorga ni za ti on i tems $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Reported Funds From Operations (FFO) $1,030,851 $1,320,192 $1,299,454 $363,311 $342,238 $334,374 $460,919 $1,500,842 $339,742 $346,911 $351,663 $423,459 $1,461,775 $355,076 $349,526 $359,006 $436,034 $1,499,642

Core Adjustments:
Mi ni mum rents $26,296 $25,157 $27,667 $3,014 $3,026 $7,231 $1,549 $14,820 $8,337 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $23,337 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $5,000 $20,000
Rea l es ta te ta xes $6,312 $5,959 $5,960 $1,490 $1,490 $1,490 $1,490 $5,960 $1,490 $1,490 $1,490 $1,490 $5,960 $1,490 $1,490 $1,490 $1,490 $5,960
Other property opera ti ng cos ts $10,126 $5,166 $4,089 $1,013 $1,013 $965 $1,001 $3,992 $999 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $3,999 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $4,000
Core NOI $2,227,158 $2,263,773 $2,288,399 $573,272 $568,067 $555,311 $627,109 $2,323,759 $569,307 $557,504 $561,966 $633,858 $2,322,636 $576,256 $569,715 $579,069 $657,404 $2,382,444
Ma na gement fees & other corp revs $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Property ma na gement & other cos ts ($1,698) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
G&A $0 $17,854 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Rous e s pi n-off cos ts $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Core EBITDA $2,051,213 $2,100,913 $2,124,259 $590,468 $534,434 $527,852 $602,544 $2,255,298 $544,018 $542,113 $546,608 $618,375 $2,251,115 $551,473 $545,469 $554,830 $630,161 $2,281,933
Preferred uni t di s tri buti ons $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Interes t a nd di vi dend i ncome $0 ($485) ($820) ($205) ($205) ($205) ($205) ($820) ($205) ($205) ($205) ($205) ($820) ($205) ($205) ($205) ($205) ($820)
Interes t expens e $25,273 $11,723 $12,225 ($294) ($511) ($3,577) ($55,292) ($59,674) ($1,211) $0 $0 $0 ($1,211) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Wa rra nt a djus tment $40,546 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Los s on exti ngui s hment of debt $36,478 $0 $0 $28,549 $0 $0 $0 $28,549 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Provi s i on for l oa n l os s $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $205 $205 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Income ta x provi s i on ($1,756) ($4,961) ($16,552) ($5,079) $724 $2,093 $404 ($1,858) ($3,183) ($1,100) ($1,109) ($1,253) ($6,645) $569 $562 $572 $650 $2,352
Other FFO contri buti on from noncontrol l i ng i nteres ts $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 ($6,659) $0 ($6,659) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
FFO from di s conti nued ops ($24,758) ($143,005) ($201) ($60) $168 ($133) $0 ($25) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Provi s i ons for i mpa i rment $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
(Los s ) ga i n on forei gn currency $0 $18,049 $44,984 ($8,936) ($7,893) $657 $2,086 ($14,086) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Reorga ni za ti on i tems $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Core FFO $1,147,670 $1,255,649 $1,376,806 $382,803 $340,050 $336,236 $412,157 $1,471,246 $345,969 $353,096 $357,839 $429,491 $1,486,395 $362,930 $357,373 $366,863 $443,969 $1,531,135

Ca pi ta l expendi tures ($278,117) ($306,937) ($330,715) ($72,426) ($67,595) ($89,581) ($91,267) ($320,869) ($76,138) ($76,138) ($76,138) ($76,138) ($304,552) ($76,138) ($76,138) ($76,138) ($76,138) ($304,552)
Adjusted FFO (AFFO) $869,553 $948,712 $1,046,091 $310,377 $272,455 $246,655 $320,890 $1,150,377 $269,831 $276,958 $281,701 $353,353 $1,181,843 $286,792 $281,235 $290,725 $367,831 $1,226,583
W/A s ha res a nd uni ts 987,367 949,510 957,516 956,664 958,833 955,856 956,902 957,064 956,158 949,897 946,647 945,397 949,525 945,397 945,397 945,397 945,397 945,397
Reported FFO per share $1.04 $1.39 $1.38 $0.38 $0.36 $0.35 $0.48 $1.57 $0.36 $0.37 $0.37 $0.45 $1.54 $0.38 $0.37 $0.38 $0.46 $1.59
Core FFO per share $1.16 $1.32 $1.44 $0.40 $0.35 $0.35 $0.43 $1.53 $0.36 $0.37 $0.38 $0.45 $1.57 $0.38 $0.38 $0.39 $0.47 $1.62
AFFO per share $0.88 $1.00 $1.09 $0.32 $0.28 $0.26 $0.34 $1.20 $0.28 $0.29 $0.30 $0.37 $1.24 $0.30 $0.30 $0.31 $0.39 $1.30

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 27


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 20: NAV Snapshot GGP, Inc (GGP)


General Growth Properties, Inc. NAV Model
Segment Fwd NOI Capitalization Rate
Ma l l s $2,251,887 5.3% 5.6% 5.9%
Offi ce, Stri ps & Other $42,430 5.3% 5.5% 5.8%
Total NOI/Va l ue of Opera ting RE $2,294,317 $43,024,357 $41,005,979 $39,163,111
5.60%
Services Business Income Multiple
T-12 Income $54,216 6 $325,296 $325,296 $325,296

Cons truction i n progres s ^ $681,792 $681,792 $681,792


Ca s h & equi va l ents $491,332 $491,332 $491,332
Accounts recei va bl e $1,257,373 $1,257,373 $1,257,373
Deferred cha rges $462,586 $462,586 $462,586
Other a s s ets $401,246 $401,246 $401,246

Assets $46,643,982 $44,625,603 $42,782,736

Cons ol i da ted debt $12,592,260 $12,592,260 $12,592,260


Uncons ol i da ted debt $5,900,015 $5,900,015 $5,900,015
Total Debt $18,492,275 $18,492,275 $18,492,275
Other l i a bi l i ties $1,174,843 $1,174,843 $1,174,843
Preferred equi ty $387,770 $387,770 $387,770

Liabilities + Preferred Equity $20,054,888 $20,054,888 $20,054,888


Total Leverage 43% 45% 47%
Debt/GAV 40% 41% 43%
Net Assets - Unadjusted $26,589,094 $24,570,715 $22,727,848

Di l uted Sha res & OP Uni ts Outs tandi ng 951,897 951,897 951,897

Net Asset Value per Share $28.00 $26.00 $24.00

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 28


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 21: Earnings Model Simon Property Group (SPG)


Simon Property Group (SPG) 2013 2014 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018
Earnings Estimates A A A A A A A A A A A A A E E E E E E E E E
Income Statement
in $m, except /sh values

consolidated noi (ex. noncontrolling)


base rents 3,087,746 2,980,477 730,451 744,704 766,614 804,140 3,045,909 795,996 799,237 820,412 853,486 3,269,131 828,467 824,443 847,576 881,043 3,381,530 859,459 855,736 878,864 912,891 3,506,950
overage rents 223,057 209,009 38,904 37,002 47,402 70,540 193,848 28,885 31,222 40,053 61,124 161,284 28,174 41,483 42,661 63,430 175,748 30,690 30,542 39,978 63,928 165,139
tenant reimbursements 1,426,280 1,401,386 338,095 362,390 371,254 365,969 1,437,708 369,289 364,752 375,396 375,299 1,484,736 375,938 368,601 378,938 419,337 1,542,814 376,551 388,341 410,231 440,337 1,615,459
other rental income (ex. term fees) 150,443 146,766 37,888 115,751 40,007 50,365 244,011 72,702 44,784 39,834 58,341 215,661 47,046 45,505 55,136 61,651 209,339 43,278 51,479 52,867 63,876 211,500
lease termination fees 6,297 22,303 3,785 13,280 28,303 2,623 47,991 6,590 4,307 6,403 5,697 22,997 7,922 8,204 4,260 4,428 24,814 4,325 4,306 4,421 4,591 17,644
operating revenue 4,893,823 4,759,941 1,149,123 1,273,127 1,253,580 1,293,637 4,969,467 1,273,462 1,244,302 1,282,098 1,353,947 5,153,809 1,287,547 1,288,237 1,328,571 1,429,889 5,334,244 1,314,302 1,330,404 1,386,361 1,485,624 5,516,692

property operating expenses 466,560 420,531 98,716 98,967 114,837 109,604 422,124 101,854 103,630 118,474 102,964 426,922 102,473 107,065 110,063 114,409 434,009 107,360 111,095 122,729 127,493 468,676
real estate taxes 440,406 401,878 106,304 105,926 113,572 104,766 430,568 108,851 106,936 111,221 109,890 436,898 106,058 107,163 110,169 118,856 442,245 110,038 111,226 114,232 118,656 454,151
repairs & maintenance 119,036 106,390 29,502 22,508 21,029 27,574 100,613 25,811 22,635 22,911 27,320 98,677 25,420 24,758 25,454 30,796 106,427 26,393 25,705 26,398 31,903 110,399
advertising & promotion 125,397 138,208 18,683 41,104 38,662 36,020 134,469 34,838 32,884 34,989 38,346 141,057 35,327 35,474 36,471 43,984 151,256 36,687 36,828 37,822 45,563 156,900
provisions for credit losses 7,575 12,685 3,826 2,700 (327) 456 6,655 3,623 4,917 (762) (519) 7,259 5,157 1,617 2,496 859 10,129 5,236 1,669 2,578 887 10,371
other expenses (ex. professional fees) 35,404 36,956 8,249 8,614 9,263 9,023 35,149 8,535 8,860 8,402 8,853 34,650 8,826 9,061 9,315 9,683 36,885 9,151 9,403 9,657 10,032 38,244
consolidated noi 3,699,445 3,643,293 883,843 993,308 956,544 1,006,194 3,839,889 989,950 964,440 986,863 1,067,093 4,008,346 1,004,286 1,003,099 1,034,605 1,111,302 4,153,292 1,019,437 1,034,480 1,072,944 1,151,090 4,277,952

pro-rata share of jv noi


base rents 775,372 848,709 208,232 213,644 212,249 225,321 859,446 205,329 216,439 212,953 223,885 858,606 213,684 227,545 228,383 240,417 910,029 230,580 239,397 239,326 251,366 960,669
overage rents 76,942 79,436 21,688 17,878 18,906 23,954 82,426 21,003 20,280 19,631 25,565 86,479 21,819 22,439 22,491 28,213 94,962 22,669 23,700 23,719 29,809 99,897
tenant reimbursements 355,449 372,833 91,363 93,491 94,111 93,480 372,445 98,610 100,024 104,963 102,906 406,503 103,707 108,177 107,380 116,779 436,043 108,379 110,145 110,132 119,686 448,343
other income 90,885 143,567 26,034 29,325 26,238 31,303 112,900 27,957 25,613 26,167 32,372 112,109 30,398 26,732 24,613 28,170 109,912 29,131 28,292 26,013 29,785 113,221
operating revenue 1,298,648 1,444,545 347,317 354,338 351,504 374,058 1,427,217 352,899 362,356 363,714 384,728 1,463,697 369,608 384,893 382,867 413,578 1,550,946 390,760 401,534 399,191 430,645 1,622,130

property operating expenses 215,615 260,343 58,567 58,915 59,086 57,690 234,258 57,172 57,067 61,067 60,660 235,966 59,519 60,861 60,917 65,217 246,514 62,063 64,531 64,654 69,212 260,462
real estate taxes 98,175 105,929 27,216 26,634 26,638 26,915 107,403 28,302 27,857 28,857 27,668 112,684 31,277 30,649 28,594 31,238 121,758 31,043 29,956 29,944 32,668 123,611
repairs & maintenance 32,003 34,031 9,833 7,983 7,242 8,999 34,057 9,230 8,501 8,208 9,678 35,617 9,621 9,013 9,038 11,784 39,455 9,114 9,508 9,513 12,436 40,571
advertising & promotion 28,941 34,122 7,665 8,178 9,448 10,166 35,457 10,890 10,154 8,997 11,941 41,982 10,453 9,589 9,628 10,136 39,806 9,724 10,079 10,074 10,579 40,456
provisions for credit losses 792 3,250 892 601 (269) 638 1,862 1,341 1,284 (170) 307 2,762 1,810 2,158 641 674 5,282 642 688 691 728 2,749
other expenses 66,994 83,961 21,006 17,159 17,500 20,959 76,624 20,285 17,874 19,797 21,710 79,666 19,156 19,595 19,580 20,589 78,919 17,493 18,564 18,623 19,598 74,278
unconsolidated noi 856,128 922,909 222,138 234,868 231,859 248,691 937,556 225,679 239,619 236,958 252,764 955,020 237,772 253,028 254,470 273,941 1,019,211 260,680 268,207 265,692 285,424 1,080,003

combined noi 4,555,573 4,566,202 1,105,981 1,228,176 1,188,403 1,254,885 4,777,445 1,215,629 1,204,059 1,223,821 1,319,857 4,963,366 1,242,058 1,256,127 1,289,075 1,385,242 5,172,503 1,280,118 1,302,686 1,338,636 1,436,514 5,357,954
to tal gro wth 9.2% 0.2% -5.8% 13.5% 6.4% 5.2% 4.6% 9.9% -2.0% 3.0% 5.2% 3.9% 2.2% 4.3% 5.3% 5.0% 4.2% 3.1% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6%
same sto re gro wth 5.2% 5.1% 3.5% 3.6% 4.3% 3.4% 3.7% 5.1% 3.2% 2.2% 3.8% 3.6% 3.8% 4.3% 5.3% 5.0% 3.0% 3.1% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 4.0%

management fees & other revenues 126,972 138,226 35,078 40,027 38,568 44,792 158,465 33,400 34,478 41,721 34,277 143,876 30,547 31,403 32,227 34,631 128,808 38,404 39,081 40,159 43,095 160,739
home & regional office costs (140,931) (158,576) (35,903) (39,346) (37,204) (42,362) (154,815) (38,607) (40,326) (41,606) (37,867) (158,406) (42,979) (41,224) (42,514) (42,897) (169,614) (39,429) (39,912) (41,591) (44,569) (165,501)
general & administrative (59,803) (59,958) (14,998) (15,345) (14,838) (15,147) (60,328) (14,864) (15,125) (15,154) (19,939) (65,082) (14,001) (12,882) (13,286) (14,299) (54,468) (13,143) (13,304) (13,864) (14,856) (55,167)
professional fees (48,342) (52,109) (9,957) (13,751) (21,384) (18,712) (63,804) (10,878) (14,007) (12,848) (40,081) (77,814) (13,832) (12,882) (13,286) (17,159) (57,159) (13,143) (13,304) (13,864) (17,827) (58,138)
combined ebitda 4,433,469 4,433,785 1,080,201 1,199,761 1,153,545 1,223,456 4,656,963 1,184,680 1,169,079 1,195,934 1,256,247 4,805,940 1,201,793 1,220,542 1,252,216 1,345,519 5,020,070 1,252,806 1,275,247 1,309,477 1,402,357 5,239,887

add: s/l rent and fas 141 85,500 75,042 19,709 20,111 18,424 24,641 82,885 17,742 18,074 15,761 14,827 66,404 11,866 11,808 12,140 12,619 48,433 12,310 12,257 12,588 13,075 50,229
add: gain on land sales 7,600 15,600 100 3,600 900 1,500 6,100 1,600 500 3,100 8,800 14,000 2,700 2,700 2,700 2,700 10,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 1,800 7,200
interest expense (1,439,548) (1,281,156) (298,642) (298,843) (295,096) (295,816) (1,188,397) (283,127) (281,757) (282,191) (273,853) (1,120,928) (263,351) (257,562) (260,486) (261,216) (1,042,616) (261,003) (260,981) (260,951) (260,991) (1,043,925)
interest & dividend income 9,192 17,466 6,665 6,832 3,034 10,191 26,722 3,128 10,568 4,768 4,429 22,893 3,381 3,381 3,381 3,381 13,524 3,381 3,381 3,381 3,381 13,524
income tax benefit (expense) (39,734) (28,161) (6,362) (3,420) (3,658) (6,731) (20,171) (15,186) (7,115) (6,325) (1,052) (29,678) 3,521 (6,441) (6,643) (7,149) (16,712) (2,629) (2,661) (2,773) (2,971) (11,033)
income (loss) on unconsolidated entities 20,743 (2,354) 6,098 3,468 (3,347) (303) 5,916 14,090 12,487 10,180 6,040 42,797 (5,348) - - - (5,348) - - - - -
non real estate depreciation and amortization 133,723 150,039 24,275 25,160 46,197 31,792 127,424 30,219 32,348 36,106 34,879 133,552 31,763 31,128 30,505 29,895 123,291 29,297 28,711 28,137 27,574 113,720
minority/limited partnerships interest - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
preferred dividends (5,252) (5,252) (1,313) (1,313) (1,313) (1,313) (5,252) (1,313) (1,313) (1,313) (1,313) (5,252) (1,313) (1,313) (1,313) (1,313) (5,252) (1,313) (1,313) (1,313) (1,313) (5,252)
securities charges & realized gains - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
discontinued operations - 26,022 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
transaction expenses - (38,163) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
gain (loss) on extinguishment of debt - (127,573) - - - (120,953) (120,953) - - - (136,777) (136,777) - (128,600) - - (128,600) - - - - -
impairments (incl. jv) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
charges on extinguishment of debt - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
reported ffo 3,205,693 3,235,295 830,731 955,356 918,686 866,464 3,571,237 951,833 952,871 976,020 912,227 3,792,951 985,012 875,643 1,032,500 1,124,435 4,017,591 1,034,650 1,056,441 1,090,347 1,182,912 4,364,350

impairments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
non-recurring items - 165,736 - - - 120,953 120,953 - - - 136,777 136,777 - 128,600 - - 128,600 - - - - -
operating ffo 3,205,693 3,401,031 830,731 955,356 918,686 987,417 3,692,190 951,833 952,871 976,020 1,049,004 3,929,728 985,012 1,004,243 1,032,500 1,124,435 4,146,191 1,034,650 1,056,441 1,090,347 1,182,912 4,364,350

s/l rent & fas 141 rent (85,500) (75,042) (19,709) (20,111) (18,424) (24,641) (82,885) (17,742) (18,074) (15,761) (14,827) (66,404) (11,866) (11,808) (12,140) (12,619) (48,433) (12,310) (12,257) (12,588) (13,075) (50,229)
cap-ex (263,852) (202,047) (116,669) (70,436) (60,834) (40,028) (287,967) (157,740) (137,739) (115,167) (141,844) (552,490) (120,629) (154,588) (146,143) (157,288) (578,648) (144,573) (146,344) (152,500) (163,419) (606,836)
% o f o perating rev. 5 .4 % 4 .2 % 10.2% 5.5% 4.9% 3.1% 5 .8 % 12.4% 11.1% 9.0% 10.5% 10 .7 % 9.4% 12.0% 11.0% 11.0% 10 .8 % 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0% 11.0 %
adjusted ffo (affo) 2,856,341 3,123,942 694,353 864,809 839,428 922,748 3,321,338 776,351 797,058 845,092 892,333 3,310,834 852,517 837,846 874,218 954,529 3,519,109 877,766 897,840 925,259 1,006,419 3,707,284
impact of preferred & unit conversion - - - - - - - - - -
w/a shares + units 362,356 363,476 363,784 362,762 361,234 361,235 362,244 361,395 361,762 361,764 361,187 361,527 360,130 359,609 359,609 359,609 359,739 359,609 359,609 359,609 359,609 359,609
reported ffo/sh 8.85 8.90 2.28 2.63 2.54 2.40 9.86 2.63 2.63 2.70 2.53 10.49 2.74 2.43 2.87 3.13 11.17 2.88 2.94 3.03 3.29 12.14
operating ffo/sh 8.85 9.36 2.28 2.63 2.54 2.73 10.19 2.63 2.63 2.70 2.90 10.87 2.74 2.79 2.87 3.13 11.53 2.88 2.94 3.03 3.29 12.14
affo/sh 7.88 8.59 1.91 2.38 2.32 2.55 9.17 2.15 2.20 2.34 2.47 9.16 2.37 2.33 2.43 2.65 9.78 2.44 2.50 2.57 2.80 10.31

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 29


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 22: NAV Snapshot Simon Property Group (SPG)

Operating properties NOI Cap Rate Value


Regional malls 2,579,511 5.7% 5.4% 5.2% 45,627,267 47,738,295 50,054,140
Outlets 1,584,313 5.9% 5.6% 5.4% 26,951,361 28,148,472 29,456,872
Mills 519,088 7.5% 7.2% 7.0% 6,967,629 7,209,561 7,468,897
International 407,115 7.7% 7.5% 7.2% 5,282,057 5,459,128 5,648,484
Other 30,238 8.8% 8.5% 8.3% 345,579 355,743 366,523
Total portfolio 5,120,265 6.0% 5.8% 5.5% 85,173,892 88,911,199 92,994,917

Services business T-12 income multiple


Fee income 91,665 6.0x 549,990 549,990 549,990

Other assets
Construction in progress 1,754,884 1,754,884 1,754,884
Cash & equivalents 853,550 853,550 853,550
Receivables 778,088 778,088 778,088
Other assets 3,108,110 3,108,110 3,108,110
Total assets 92,218,514 95,955,820 100,039,538

Liabilities & preferred equity

Consolidated debt 22,998,469 22,998,469 22,998,469


Unconsolidated debt 6,774,363 6,774,363 6,774,363
Total debt 29,772,832 29,772,832 29,772,832
Accounts payable 1,458,976 1,458,976 1,458,976
Other liabilities 476,352 476,352 476,352
Total liabilities 31,708,160 31,708,160 31,708,160
Debt/GAV 32.3% 31.0% 29.8%
Preferred equity - - -

Net asset value 60,510,353 64,247,660 68,331,378


Shares + units outstanding 359,609 359,609 359,609

NAV/sh 168.00 178.00 190.00

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 30


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 23: Earnings Model Taubman Centers (TCO)


Taubman Centers 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018
Earnings Estimate (000s) Full Year Full Year Full Year 1QA 2QA 3QA 4QA Full Year 1QA 2QE 3QE 4QE Full Year 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE Full Year
Mi ni mum rents 417,729 371,454 310,831 81,977 82,694 81,402 87,252 333,325 84,303 87,340 87,060 92,713 351,416 89,314 91,870 91,165 98,423 370,772
Percenta ge rents 28,512 22,929 20,233 2,772 924 6,264 10,060 20,020 2,575 1,298 4,498 7,554 15,925 1,840 926 5,510 9,871 18,147
Expens e recoveri es 272,494 239,782 188,023 47,760 47,380 52,151 55,176 202,467 53,012 55,049 52,448 57,247 217,757 57,489 58,538 58,316 69,453 243,796
Other 28,002 21,729 17,194 3,781 4,558 6,265 10,125 24,729 6,076 3,584 4,498 6,131 20,288 3,596 4,629 5,510 6,017 19,752
Lea s e ca ncel l a ti on revenue 4,275 10,886 7,714 1,437 138 540 1,842 3,957 2,200 1,000 1,000 1,000 5,200 1,000 1,000 1,000 1,000 4,000
Les s : S/L rent (7,334) (5,419) (5,211) (1,114) (2,024) (2,574) (1,908) (7,620) (1,470) (1,470) (1,470) (1,470) (5,880) (1,470) (1,470) (1,470) (1,470) (5,880)
Les s : Interes t i ncome (175) (3,764) (5,569) (1,456) (2,704) (2,881) (3,283) (10,324) (3,065) (3,065) (3,065) (3,065) (12,260) (3,065) (3,065) (3,065) (3,065) (12,260)
Les s : Ga i n on l a nd s a l es (863) 0 0 (403) 0 (1,425) 0 (1,828) (1,668) 0 0 0 (1,668) 0 0 0 0 0
Operating Revenue 742,640 657,597 533,215 134,754 130,966 139,742 159,264 564,726 141,963 143,736 144,969 160,110 590,778 148,703 152,428 156,966 180,229 638,326
Ma i ntena nce, ta xes , a nd uti l i ti es 215,825 190,119 145,118 34,938 35,917 39,053 46,598 156,506 39,711 43,574 41,788 44,781 169,854 42,663 45,862 45,467 53,122 187,114
Shoppi ng center expens es 51,089 49,500 43,034 13,118 15,320 14,232 17,718 60,388 12,312 16,262 15,221 18,827 62,622 15,999 17,082 15,918 19,986 68,985
Ba d debt expens e 489 2,900 1,994 2,243 1,766 722 (684) 4,047 2,890 2,970 1,716 1,834 9,410 2,622 2,707 1,367 1,481 8,176
Ground rent 9,095 8,565 8,766 2,108 2,075 2,505 2,640 9,328 3,096 2,050 2,500 2,500 10,146 2,050 2,050 2,500 2,500 9,100
Consolidated NOI 466,142 406,513 334,303 82,347 75,888 83,230 92,992 334,457 83,954 78,880 83,744 92,169 338,746 85,370 84,727 91,714 103,140 364,950
Noncontrol l i ng i nteres t i n cons ol i da ted i ncome (10,344) (34,239) (11,222) (2,521) (1,630) (1,662) (2,292) (8,105) (1,444) (1,972) (2,094) (2,765) (8,275) (1,707) (2,118) (2,293) (3,094) (9,213)
Noncontrol l i ng s ha re of i nteres t expens e (8,670) (8,101) (6,965) (1,952) (2,566) (2,868) (2,945) (10,331) (2,975) (3,131) (3,153) (2,914) (12,174) (2,777) (2,949) (3,057) (2,840) (11,623)
Noncontrol l i ng s ha re of depreci a ti on & a morti za ti on (5,090) (4,429) (3,681) (1,419) (1,267) (1,332) (1,826) (5,844) (1,796) (1,796) (1,796) (1,796) (7,184) (1,706) (1,706) (1,706) (1,706) (6,825)
Noncontrolling share of NOI (24,104) (46,769) (21,868) (5,892) (5,463) (5,862) (7,063) (24,280) (6,215) (6,899) (7,043) (7,475) (27,633) (6,190) (6,774) (7,056) (7,640) (27,660)
TCO's prora ta s ha re of uncons ol i da ted JVs
Equi ty i n ea rni ngs of JVs (ex. one-ti mers ) 52,465 62,002 67,980 18,478 15,910 15,391 19,922 69,701 20,118 22,165 22,821 26,349 91,453 25,216 24,880 25,502 28,852 104,450
Interes t expens e 37,554 40,416 45,564 11,528 13,207 14,274 15,665 54,674 15,781 14,810 14,990 14,903 60,483 14,613 14,503 14,457 14,444 58,018
Depreci a ti on & a morti za ti on 24,920 30,234 34,361 9,335 11,669 14,995 17,013 53,012 15,652 15,452 16,129 17,888 65,121 15,339 14,679 15,323 16,994 62,335
Unconsolidated NOI 114,939 132,652 147,905 39,341 40,786 44,660 52,600 177,387 51,551 52,426 53,940 59,139 217,057 55,168 54,063 55,282 60,290 224,802
Pi er Shops NOI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Regency Squa re NOI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Combined NOI 556,977 492,396 460,340 115,796 111,211 122,028 138,529 487,564 129,290 124,406 130,642 143,832 528,171 134,347 132,016 139,939 155,790 562,092
Add: Noncontrol l i ng i nteres t expens e 8,670 8,101 6,965 1,952 2,566 2,868 2,945 10,331 2,975 3,131 3,153 2,914 12,174 2,777 2,949 3,057 2,840 11,623
Ma na gement, l ea s i ng, devel opment, net 10,821 6,129 7,263 856 22,302 131 728 24,017 338 249 261 288 1,136 537 528 560 623 2,248
Pre-devel opment cos ts (10,562) (4,177) (4,337) (1,239) (1,321) (1,133) (1,338) (5,031) (1,021) (1,621) (1,531) (1,699) (5,872) (1,900) (1,354) (1,436) (1,542) (6,231)
G&A (50,014) (48,292) (45,727) (11,380) (11,693) (11,578) (16,405) (51,056) (14,251) (13,655) (13,047) (15,210) (56,164) (11,896) (12,194) (12,557) (14,418) (51,066)
Nonopera ti ng i ncome 9,720 (33,624) 16,036 4,443 7,404 11,449 19,403 42,699 8,982 7,464 7,839 8,630 32,915 2,687 2,640 2,799 3,116 11,242
Income ta x expens e (3,409) (1,894) (2,125) (321) (442) 460 (1,463) (1,766) (108) (249) (261) (288) (906) (672) (660) (700) (779) (2,810)
Combined EBITDA 522,203 418,639 438,415 110,107 130,027 124,225 142,399 506,758 126,205 119,726 127,056 138,468 511,454 125,880 123,925 131,662 145,629 527,097
2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18
Add: Pi er Shops NOI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Add: Regency NOI 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Interes t expens e (130,023) (90,803) (63,041) (19,128) (20,588) (22,129) (24,440) (86,285) (25,546) (25,125) (24,328) (24,186) (99,185) (23,843) (23,662) (23,588) (23,567) (94,661)
Les s : JV i nteres t expens e (37,554) (40,416) (45,564) (11,528) (13,207) (14,274) (15,665) (54,674) (15,781) (14,810) (14,990) (14,903) (60,483) (14,613) (14,503) (14,457) (14,444) (58,018)
Non-RE depreci a ti on & a morti za ti on (3,038) (3,500) (3,051) (643) (631) (607) (591) (2,472) (689) (675) (662) (648) (2,674) (636) (623) (610) (598) (2,467)
Seri es F di s tri buti ons 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other Income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Preferred di vi dends (20,933) (23,138) (23,138) (5,784) (5,785) (5,784) (5,785) (23,138) (5,784) (5,784) (5,784) (5,784) (23,137) (5,784) (5,784) (5,784) (5,784) (23,138)
Acqui s i ti on cos ts 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Li ti ga ti on cha rges 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Ga i n on di s pos i ti ons 0 23,428 0 0 0 0 0 0 (2,083) 0 0 0 (2,083) 0 0 0 0 0
Ga i n on debt exti ngui s hment 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Impa i rments 0 0 (11,754) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Res tructuri ng 0 (3,706) 0 0 0 0 0 0 (1,896) 0 0 0 (1,896) 0 0 0 0 0
Reported Funds from Operations (FFO) 330,655 280,504 291,867 73,024 89,816 81,431 95,918 340,189 74,426 73,332 81,292 92,946 321,995 81,004 79,353 87,222 101,236 348,815
Non-recurri ng cha rges 0 46,632 0 0 (21,702) 0 (8,069) (29,771) 5,809 0 0 0 5,809 0 0 0 0 0
Pi er Shops FFO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Regency FFO 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Operating FFO 330,655 327,136 291,867 73,024 68,114 81,431 87,849 310,418 80,235 73,332 81,292 92,946 327,804 81,004 79,353 87,222 101,236 348,815
S/L rent & FAS 141 rent (7,334) (5,419) (5,211) (1,114) (2,024) (2,574) (1,908) (7,620) (1,470) (1,470) (1,470) (1,470) (5,880) (1,470) (1,470) (1,470) (1,470) (5,880)
Ca pi ta l expendi tures (86,170) (133,998) (160,561) (16,619) (38,533) (40,795) (66,428) (162,375) (44,470) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) (164,470) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) (40,000) (160,000)
Adjusted FFO (AFFO) 237,151 187,719 126,095 55,291 27,557 38,062 19,513 140,423 34,295 31,862 39,822 51,476 157,454 39,534 37,883 45,752 59,766 182,935
W/A s ha res a nd uni ts 90,678 90,062 88,106 86,724 86,634 86,705 86,911 86,743 86,903 85,682 85,732 85,782 86,025 85,832 85,882 85,932 85,982 85,907
Reported FFO per share $3.65 $3.11 $3.31 $0.84 $1.04 $0.94 $1.10 $3.92 $0.85 $0.86 $0.95 $1.08 $3.74 $0.94 $0.92 $1.02 $1.18 $4.06
Operating FFO per share $3.65 $3.63 $3.31 $0.84 $0.79 $0.94 $1.01 $3.58 $0.92 $0.86 $0.95 $1.08 $3.81 $0.94 $0.92 $1.02 $1.18 $4.06
y-o-y Growth Rate 0% -9% 4% 3% 6% 19% 8% 10% 9% 1% 7% 6% 2% 8% 7% 9% 7%
3-Year Growth Rate 6.7% 6.4% -0.2% -0.6% 1.6% 7.0%
AFFO per share $2.62 $2.08 $1.43 $0.64 $0.32 $0.44 $0.22 $1.62 $0.39 $0.37 $0.46 $0.60 $1.83 $0.46 $0.44 $0.53 $0.70 $2.13

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 31


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 24: NAV Snapshot Taubman Centers (TCO)

Taubman Centers NAV Model


Segment NOI Capitalization Rate
Ma l l s $499,159 4.8% 5.0% 5.3%
Va l ue Centers $116,219 5.7% 5.9% 6.2%
NOI/Va l ue of Opera ting RE $615,378 $12,565,587 $11,952,997 $11,397,533
5.1%
Services Business Income Multiple
T-12 Income $1,389 6 $8,334 $8,334 $8,334

Cons truction i n Progres s $31,398 $31,398 $31,398


Peri phera l La nd $8,800 $8,800 $8,800
Ca s h & Equi va l ents $88,718 $88,718 $88,718
Recei va bl es $89,679 $89,679 $89,679
Other As s ets $330,772 $330,772 $330,772

Assets $13,123,288 $12,510,697 $11,955,234

Cons ol i da ted Debt $3,280,800 $3,280,800 $3,280,800


Uncons ol i da ted Debt $1,225,900 $1,225,900 $1,225,900
Total Debt $4,506,700 $4,506,700 $4,506,700
Accounts Pa ya bl e $448,730 $448,730 $448,730
Preferred Equi ty $362,500 $362,500 $362,500

Liabilities + Preferred Equity $5,317,930 $5,317,930 $5,317,930


Total Leverage 41% 43% 44%
Debt/GAV 34% 36% 38%
Net Assets $7,805,358 $7,192,767 $6,637,304

Di l uted Sha res & OP Uni ts Outs tandi ng 85,657 85,657 85,657

Net Asset Value per Share $91.00 $84.00 $77.00

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 32


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 25: Earnings Model The Macerich Company (MAC)


Macerich Co. 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 2016 2016 2016 2017 2017 2017 2017 2017 2018 2018 2018 2018 2018
Earnings Estimate (000s) Full Year Full Year Full Year 1QA 2QA 3QA 4QA Full Year 1QA 2QE 3QE 4QE Full Year 1QE 2QE 3QE 4QE Full Year

Ba s e renta l s $566,602 $594,807 $728,131 $142,733 $144,153 $145,708 $150,106 $582,700 $137,184 $140,729 $142,226 $149,092 $569,231 $127,618 $141,723 $144,223 $151,388 $564,952
Les s : S/L rent & FAS 141 rent ($16,800) ($19,500) ($28,600) ($6,400) ($8,800) ($11,900) ($11,300) ($38,400) ($7,400) ($9,709) ($9,381) ($8,923) ($35,413) ($6,868) ($8,452) ($8,542) ($11,190) ($35,052)
Les s : Lea s e termi na ti on fees ($5,000) ($11,900) ($11,300) ($3,500) ($5,900) ($7,800) ($4,000) ($21,200) ($2,700) ($4,000) ($4,000) ($4,000) ($14,700) ($3,000) ($3,000) ($3,000) ($3,000) ($12,000)
Percenta ge renta l s $22,560 $22,790 $24,987 $2,938 $2,369 $3,716 $11,130 $20,153 $1,812 $1,680 $3,555 $11,330 $18,377 $1,915 $3,532 $3,590 $10,500 $19,536
Expens e rei mburs ements $329,313 $337,926 $395,693 $75,433 $71,263 $69,792 $70,086 $286,574 $67,711 $68,120 $64,122 $68,680 $268,633 $62,599 $69,462 $67,854 $71,246 $271,161
Other i ncome $48,544 $49,384 $59,091 $12,586 $17,322 $11,539 $15,656 $57,103 $13,873 $11,176 $12,823 $16,398 $54,270 $11,441 $11,337 $11,613 $16,585 $50,977
Operating Revenue $945,219 $973,507 $1,168,002 $223,790 $220,407 $211,055 $231,678 $886,930 $210,480 $207,996 $209,344 $232,578 $860,398 $193,705 $214,602 $215,738 $235,529 $859,575
Property opera ti ng expens es $323,555 $330,764 $364,281 $75,438 $70,109 $72,174 $74,059 $291,780 $71,875 $73,248 $66,793 $70,082 $281,998 $65,208 $70,879 $69,239 $72,700 $278,026
Consolidated NOI $621,664 $642,743 $803,721 $148,352 $150,298 $138,881 $157,619 $595,150 $138,605 $134,749 $142,551 $162,496 $578,400 $128,498 $143,723 $146,499 $162,829 $581,549
MAC's prora ta s ha re of uncons ol i da ted JVs
Mi ni mum rents $209,621 $191,255 $155,522 $71,192 $78,551 $80,361 $82,055 $312,159 $81,694 $81,234 $83,109 $84,179 $330,216 $82,919 $82,578 $87,097 $88,137 $340,731
Percenta ge rents $9,665 $8,399 $7,950 $1,310 $1,477 $2,744 $5,423 $10,954 $1,291 $2,630 $3,543 $6,294 $13,759 $1,244 $1,357 $4,759 $7,743 $15,103
Tena nt recoveri es $103,085 $92,567 $68,323 $28,873 $30,496 $31,458 $31,549 $122,376 $30,852 $30,242 $31,427 $31,342 $123,862 $32,090 $31,917 $32,971 $34,154 $131,132
Other i ncome $22,981 $20,203 $17,549 $6,843 $6,789 $6,437 $8,704 $28,773 $6,320 $6,138 $6,982 $10,211 $29,651 $6,415 $5,817 $7,642 $11,150 $31,023
Operating Revenue $345,352 $312,424 $249,344 $108,218 $117,313 $121,000 $127,731 $474,262 $120,157 $120,244 $125,062 $132,025 $497,488 $122,668 $121,669 $132,469 $141,183 $517,989
Shoppi ng center & opera ti ng expens es $116,408 $106,020 $84,790 $32,184 $34,889 $36,430 $36,783 $140,286 $36,512 $36,002 $36,973 $36,872 $146,359 $37,314 $37,113 $38,339 $38,811 $151,576
Unconsolidated NOI $228,944 $206,404 $164,554 $76,034 $82,424 $84,570 $90,948 $333,976 $83,645 $84,242 $88,089 $95,153 $351,129 $85,354 $84,556 $94,130 $102,372 $366,412
Noncontrol l i ng NOI
Net i ncome a ttri buta bl e to noncontrol l i ng $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Noncontrol l i ng depreci a ti on/a morti za ti on $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Noncontrol l i ng i nteres t expens e $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Noncontrolling NOI $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Combined NOI $850,608 $849,147 $968,275 $224,386 $232,722 $223,451 $248,567 $929,126 $222,250 $218,991 $230,640 $257,648 $929,529 $213,852 $228,279 $240,629 $265,202 $947,962
Ma na gement compa ni es ' revenues $40,192 $33,982 $26,254 $8,617 $11,325 $8,983 $10,539 $39,464 $11,896 $9,847 $10,032 $10,938 $42,713 $9,491 $10,088 $10,446 $11,301 $41,327
Ma na gement compa ni es ' opera ti ng expens es ($93,460) ($88,415) ($92,340) ($27,900) ($24,299) ($23,285) ($22,839) ($98,323) ($28,517) ($24,618) ($25,080) ($24,064) ($102,279) ($22,779) ($25,220) ($25,071) ($24,863) ($97,933)
G&A ($27,771) ($29,412) ($29,870) ($8,629) ($7,681) ($6,930) ($4,977) ($28,217) ($8,463) ($7,904) ($7,327) ($6,977) ($30,671) ($6,780) ($8,155) ($8,198) ($7,537) ($30,670)
Co-venture i nteres ts $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Combined EBITDA $769,569 $765,302 $872,319 $196,474 $212,067 $202,219 $231,290 $842,050 $197,166 $196,316 $208,265 $237,545 $839,292 $193,784 $204,992 $217,807 $244,103 $860,686
2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18
Interes t expens e - cons ol i da ted $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Interes t expens e - noncontrol l i ng $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Interes t expens e - uncons ol i da ted $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Interes t expens e - tota l ($266,135) ($241,402) ($242,126) ($59,921) ($63,039) ($62,990) ($65,668) ($251,618) ($64,288) ($65,406) ($66,666) ($67,433) ($263,793) ($67,754) ($67,989) ($67,035) ($66,633) ($269,411)
Add ba ck: S/L rent & FAS 141 rent $16,800 $19,500 $28,600 $6,400 $8,800 $11,900 $11,300 $38,400 $7,400 $9,709 $9,381 $8,923 $35,413 $6,868 $8,452 $8,542 $11,190 $35,052
Add ba ck: Lea s e termi na ti on fees $5,000 $11,900 $11,300 $3,500 $5,900 $7,800 $4,000 $21,200 $2,700 $4,000 $4,000 $4,000 $14,700 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $3,000 $12,000
Income ta x benefi t $1,691 $4,269 $3,223 ($1,317) ($514) ($905) $2,014 ($722) $3,484 ($500) ($500) ($500) $1,984 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $1,000 $4,000
Equi ty i n i ncome of JVs $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Net i ncome a ttri buta bl e to OP uni ts $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Preferred uni ts di vi dends $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Non-rea l es ta te depreci a ti on ($7,444) ($11,283) ($13,052) ($2,940) ($3,093) ($3,309) ($3,088) ($12,430) ($3,381) ($3,212) ($3,148) ($3,085) ($12,825) ($2,931) ($2,784) ($2,728) ($2,674) ($11,117)
Di s conti nued opera ti ons $1,913 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Ga i n on undepreci a ted a s s et s a l es $3,148 $4,017 $5,721 $2,408 $227 $0 $0 $2,635 ($9,478) $0 $0 $0 ($9,478) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Ga i n (l os s ) on ea rl y exti ngui s hment of debt $1,783 ($9,550) $1,487 ($3,575) $0 $5,284 $0 $1,709 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Wri te-down of a s s ets $1 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Ga i n (l os s ) on remea s urement, s a l e, wri te-down of a s s ets $1,252 $0 $0 $0 $0 $295 $785 $1,080 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Cos ts rel a ted to uns ol i ci ted ta keover offer $0 $0 ($25,204) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Shoppi ngtown FFO $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Va l l ey Vi ew FFO $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Reported Funds from Operations (FFO) $527,578 $542,753 $642,268 $141,029 $160,348 $160,294 $180,633 $642,304 $133,603 $140,907 $151,332 $179,451 $605,293 $133,968 $146,671 $160,585 $189,987 $631,210
Impa i rments $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Other non-recurri ng i tems ($1,943) $0 $0 $3,575 $0 ($5,284) $0 ($1,709) $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0 $0
Operating FFO $525,635 $542,753 $642,268 $144,604 $160,348 $155,010 $180,633 $640,595 $133,603 $140,907 $151,332 $179,451 $605,293 $133,968 $146,671 $160,585 $189,987 $631,210
S/L rent & FAS 141 rent ($16,800) ($19,500) ($28,600) ($6,400) ($8,800) ($11,900) ($11,300) ($38,400) ($7,400) ($9,709) ($9,381) ($8,923) ($35,413) ($6,868) ($8,452) ($8,542) ($11,190) ($35,052)
Ca pi ta l expendi tures ($109,800) ($85,700) ($121,200) ($19,500) ($20,100) ($21,800) ($21,800) ($83,200) ($14,700) ($20,000) ($20,000) ($20,000) ($74,700) ($20,000) ($20,000) ($20,000) ($20,000) ($80,000)
Adjusted FFO (AFFO) $399,035 $437,553 $492,468 $118,704 $131,448 $121,310 $147,533 $518,995 $111,503 $111,198 $121,951 $150,527 $495,180 $107,100 $118,219 $132,043 $158,796 $516,158
W/A s ha res a nd uni ts 149,540 153,342 168,628 162,924 157,602 154,702 154,542 157,432 154,246 152,671 152,671 152,671 153,065 152,671 152,671 152,671 152,671 152,671
Reported FFO per share 3.53 3.54 3.81 0.87 1.02 1.04 1.17 4.08 0.87 0.92 0.99 1.18 3.95 0.88 0.96 1.05 1.24 4.13
Operating FFO per share 3.52 3.54 3.81 0.89 1.02 1.00 1.17 4.07 0.87 0.92 0.99 1.18 3.95 0.88 0.96 1.05 1.24 4.13
AFFO per share 2.67 2.85 2.92 0.73 0.83 0.78 0.95 3.30 0.72 0.73 0.80 0.99 3.24 0.70 0.77 0.86 1.04 3.38

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 33


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 26: NAV Snapshot The Macerich Company (MAC)

Macerich Co. NAV Model


Segment NOI Capitalization Rate
Ma l l s $973,039 5.2% 5.5% 5.7%
Communi ty Centers $19,421 6.5% 6.7% 7.0%
NOI/Va l ue of Opera ting RE $992,461 $18,841,937 $17,987,526 $17,208,540
5.5%
Services Business Income Multiple
T-12 Income $25,646 6 $153,875 $153,875 $153,875

Cons truction i n Progres s $124,697 $124,697 $124,697


Ca s h & Equi va l ents $214,997 $214,997 $214,997
Recei va bl es $72,862 $72,862 $72,862
Other As s ets $309,965 $309,965 $309,965

Assets $19,718,333 $18,863,922 $18,084,936

Cons ol i da ted Debt $4,671,273 $4,671,273 $4,671,273


Uncons ol i da ted Debt $2,860,352 $2,860,352 $2,860,352
Total Debt $7,531,625 $7,531,625 $7,531,625
Accounts Pa ya bl e & Accrued Expens es $63,398 $63,398 $63,398
Other Li a bi l i ties $539,231 $539,231 $539,231

Liabilities + Preferred Equity $8,134,254 $8,134,254 $8,134,254


Total Leverage 41% 43% 45%
Debt/GAV 38% 40% 42%
Net Assets - Unadjusted $11,584,079 $10,729,668 $9,950,682
Di l uted Sha res & OP Uni ts Outs tandi ng 152,671 152,671 152,671
Net Asset Value per Share $76.00 $70.00 $65.00

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 34


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Appendix C: Shopping Center REITs Model Updates

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 35


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 27: Earnings Model American Assets Trust (AAT)


AMERICAN ASSETS TRUST (AAT)
Income Statement (000s except per share data) 2013A 2014A 2015A 1Q16A 2Q16A 3Q16A 4Q16A 2016A 1Q17A 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E 2017E 1Q18E 2Q18E 3Q18E 4Q18E 2018E

Rental & Other Property Income 255,057 259,959 275,623 70,731 71,819 75,976 76,562 295,088 73,792 80,876 86,522 87,620 328,810 84,404 84,141 90,021 91,770 350,336
Expenses (89,986) (91,231) (98,006) (25,086) (26,007) (27,987) (28,851) (107,931) (27,395) (31,169) (33,495) (34,250) (126,309) (33,697) (31,048) (34,546) (35,545) (134,837)

Net Operating Incom e 165,071 168,728 177,617 45,645 45,812 47,989 47,711 187,157 46,397 49,707 53,027 53,370 202,502 50,707 53,093 55,474 56,225 215,499
General & Administrative (17,195) (18,532) (20,074) (4,549) (4,394) (4,513) (4,441) (17,897) (5,082) (4,448) (4,759) (4,819) (19,108) (4,895) (4,880) (5,221) (5,323) (20,320)
Other Income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Equity in Income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
EBITDA 147,876 150,196 157,543 41,096 41,418 43,476 43,270 169,260 41,315 45,259 48,269 48,551 183,394 45,811 48,213 50,253 50,902 195,180
Depreciation & Amortization (66,775) (66,568) (63,392) (17,453) (17,714) (17,992) (18,160) (71,319) (17,986) (20,079) (20,244) (20,410) (78,720) (20,613) (20,820) (21,031) (21,242) (83,706)
Interest Income 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Interest Expense (58,020) (52,965) (47,260) (12,946) (13,153) (13,049) (12,788) (51,936) (13,331) (13,588) (13,723) (13,797) (54,439) (13,693) (13,777) (13,674) (13,626) (54,771)
All Other (charge, gain on sale, etc.) (487) 482 7,024 24 99 (577) 86 (368) 310 0 0 0 310 0 0 0 0 0
Net to noncontrolling (7,374) (9,389) (15,406) (3,070) (3,051) (3,383) (3,547) (13,051) (2,921) (2,921) (2,921) (2,921) (11,684) (2,921) (2,921) (2,921) (2,921) (11,684)
Net Incom e to Com m on 15,220 21,756 38,509 7,651 7,599 8,475 8,861 32,586 7,387 8,671 11,380 11,423 38,861 8,584 10,695 12,627 13,113 45,019
Depreciation & Amortization 66,775 66,568 63,392 17,453 17,714 17,992 18,160 71,319 17,986 20,079 20,244 20,410 78,720 20,613 20,820 21,031 21,242 83,706
(Gain)/Loss 0 0 (7,121) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Extraordinary (Income)/Charge 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Noncontrolling Interests 7,018 9,228 15,247 3,028 3,010 3,342 3,488 12,868 2,862 2,862 2,862 2,862 11,448 2,862 2,862 2,862 2,862 11,448
FFO, Com pany Reported 89,013 97,552 110,027 28,132 28,323 29,809 30,509 116,773 28,235 31,612 34,487 34,695 129,029 32,059 34,377 36,520 37,217 140,173
Adjustments, Net 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
FFO, Recurring 89,013 97,552 110,027 28,132 28,323 29,809 30,509 116,773 28,235 31,612 34,487 34,695 129,029 32,059 34,377 36,520 37,217 140,173
Non Cash Revenue (5,594) (6,149) (5,686) (945) (485) 677 (75) (828) (849) (987) (995) (999) (3,830) (672) (676) (690) (695) (2,733)
Non Cash Interest 3,932 4,075 4,214 1,125 1,113 1,116 1,119 4,473 1,716 1,716 1,716 1,716 6,864 1,716 1,716 1,716 1,716 6,864
Stock Comp 2,845 3,666 2,877 618 637 600 559 2,414 639 645 633 607 2,523 616 707 694 670 2,687
Maintenance Cap Ex (incl TI/LCs) (20,356) (27,787) (30,957) (7,549) (9,132) (7,882) (10,494) (35,057) (4,909) (9,196) (9,810) (9,873) (33,788) (9,381) (9,822) (10,263) (10,402) (39,867)
Other 192 125 153 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
AFFO 70,032 71,482 80,628 21,381 20,456 24,320 21,618 87,775 24,832 23,790 26,030 26,146 100,798 24,338 26,302 27,977 28,507 107,124

Per Share
FFO, Com pany Reported 1.54 1.62 1.76 0.45 0.45 0.47 0.48 1.85 0.44 0.49 0.54 0.54 2.01 0.50 0.53 0.57 0.58 2.18
growth, yr/yr 14% 5% 9% 3% 1% 7% 7% 5% -1% 9% 15% 12% 9% 14% 8% 6% 7% 9%
FFO, Recurring 1.54 1.62 1.76 0.45 0.45 0.47 0.48 1.84 0.44 0.49 0.54 0.54 2.01 0.50 0.53 0.57 0.58 2.18
growth, yr/yr 14% 5% 9% 3% 1% 7% 7% 4% -1% 10% 14% 12% 9% 13% 9% 6% 7% 8%
AFFO 1.21 1.19 1.29 0.34 0.32 0.38 0.34 1.39 0.39 0.37 0.40 0.41 1.57 0.38 0.41 0.43 0.44 1.66
growth, yr/yr 52% -2% 9% 2% 5% 24% -1% 7% 15% 14% 4% 21% 13% -3% 11% 8% 7% 6%
Dividend 0.85 0.89 0.95 0.25 0.25 0.25 0.26 1.01 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 1.04 0.26 0.26 0.26 0.26 1.04
growth, yr/yr 1% 5% 6% 8% 8% 8% 4% 7% 4% 4% 4% 0% 3% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
as a % of AFFO 70% 75% 73% 74% 77% 65% 76% 73% 67% 70% 65% 63% 66% 68% 63% 60% 59% 63%

Fully Dilluted Share Count (FFO) 57,723 60,256 62,343 63,136 63,135 63,274 63,372 63,231 64,067 64,320 64,320 64,320 64,233 64,320 64,320 64,320 64,320 64,320

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 36


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 28: NAV Snapshot American Assets Trust (AAT)


Assets
Operating Real Estate: FTM NOI Cap Rate
Retail 74,769 5.1% 5.3% 5.6%
Office 74,673 4.6% 4.9% 5.1%
Apartment 26,567 4.6% 4.8% 5.1%
Mix-Use 34,794 5.4% 5.6% 5.9%
All Properties 210,802 4.9% 5.1% 5.4%
Strip center value 4,324,691 4,113,032 3,921,181

Total operating real estate value 4,324,691 4,113,032 3,921,181

CIP 69,509 69,509 69,509

Cash 199,946 199,946 199,946


Marketable securities - - -
Receivables 7,558 7,558 7,558
Other assets, net 84,514 84,514 84,514

Total assets 4,686,219 4,474,559 4,282,708

Liabilities + Preferred Equity

Consolidated debt 1,390,495 1,390,495 1,390,495


Unconsoildated debt - - -
Total debt 1,390,495 1,390,495 1,390,495

Accounts payable + other liabilities 93,137 93,137 93,137


Preferred Equity - - -

Total liabilities 1,483,632 1,483,632 1,483,632

Net asset value 3,202,587 2,990,927 2,799,076

Shares outstanding 63,621 63,621 63,621

NAV/sh 50.00 47.00 44.00

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 37


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 29: Earnings Model Brixmor Property Group (BRX)


Brixm or Property Group (BRX)
2013 2014 2015 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16 2016 1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 2017 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18 4Q18 2018
A A A A A A A A A E E E E E E E E E
Rental income 940,896 960,980 984,548 251,146 245,575 247,859 253,538 998,118 249,621 249,739 249,397 253,607 1,002,364 252,104 253,065 254,105 259,553 1,018,828
less: SLR (19,200) (20,026) (17,595) (2,860) (3,659) (3,314) (4,611) (14,444) (5,250) (3,533) (3,035) (3,078) (14,896) (3,071) (3,099) (3,128) (3,197) (12,496)
less: above/below market rent (52,447) (45,523) (47,757) (11,018) (8,857) (9,083) (7,975) (36,933) (7,454) (7,033) (8,156) (8,297) (30,940) (7,113) (7,155) (7,206) (7,361) (28,835)
Cash rental income 869,249 895,431 919,196 237,268 233,059 235,462 240,952 946,741 236,917 239,173 238,206 242,232 956,528 241,920 242,811 243,771 248,995 977,497
Expense reimbursements 256,115 268,141 276,032 69,712 61,763 69,469 69,604 270,548 73,190 71,036 69,308 69,796 283,331 72,535 71,290 71,451 72,695 287,971
Percentage rent 6,453 5,836 3,567 1,951 2,376 1,032 526 5,885 2,914 1,885 2,332 2,369 9,501 1,653 1,669 1,685 1,722 6,729
Total Property Incom e 1,131,817 1,169,408 1,198,795 308,931 297,198 305,963 311,082 1,223,174 313,021 312,094 309,846 314,398 1,249,360 316,109 315,769 316,907 323,412 1,272,197

Operating + maintenance 124,274 129,187 129,477 35,051 31,415 31,041 35,922 133,429 37,425 35,166 33,805 34,363 140,759 35,563 35,776 34,834 35,584 141,756
Real estate taxes 175,906 179,561 180,911 44,391 38,683 47,812 43,601 174,487 46,467 44,534 44,290 44,629 179,920 47,378 45,316 45,638 46,205 184,537
Provision for doubtful accounts 11,288 11,556 9,540 2,740 1,621 2,218 2,603 9,182 1,050 2,792 1,165 1,185 6,193 1,186 1,193 1,201 1,226 4,806
Total Property Expenses 311,468 320,304 319,928 82,182 71,719 81,071 82,126 317,098 84,942 82,492 79,261 80,177 326,872 84,127 82,285 81,673 83,015 331,099

Net Operating Incom e 820,349 849,104 878,867 226,749 225,479 224,892 228,956 906,076 228,079 229,602 230,586 234,221 922,488 231,982 233,485 235,234 240,397 941,097
NOI Margin 72.5% 72.6% 73.3% 73.4% 75.9% 73.5% 73.6% 74.1% 72.9% 73.6% 74.4% 74.5% 73.8% 73.4% 73.9% 74.2% 74.3% 74.0%

Fee income + other income 2,934 2,013 1,833 295 343 217 366 1,221 81 82 82 83 328 82 83 84 85 334
General + administrative 81,261 80,175 98,454 20,724 27,198 21,787 22,539 92,248 20,957 23,407 22,309 22,637 89,310 22,128 22,420 22,500 22,962 90,010
EBITDA 742,022 770,942 782,246 206,320 198,624 203,322 206,783 815,049 207,203 206,277 208,359 211,668 833,506 209,937 211,148 212,817 217,520 851,422

Interest expense (293,673) (262,812) (245,012) (57,443) (56,184) (57,855) (55,189) (226,671) (55,731) (57,601) (57,100) (58,091) (228,522) (58,084) (58,074) (58,136) (59,347) (233,640)
Interest income 843 602 315 73 319 89 61 542 73 80 80 80 313 80 80 80 80 320
Equity in JV (loss)/income 716 384 459 107 119 122 129 477 187 150 150 150 637 180 180 180 180 720
Non-controlling interests (671) (1,181) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Depreciation of non-real estate assets (2,517) (2,911) (4,380) (769) (758) (744) (756) (3,027) (912) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (3,912) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (4,000)
Other income/expense, net (4,957) (8,433) (348) (907) (1,981) (1,370) (699) (4,957) (707) (1,500) (1,500) (1,500) (5,207) (1,200) (1,200) (1,200) (1,200) (4,800)
Gain from development/land sales 2,063 378 - - - - - - - - - - - -
Impairments (1,531) - (198) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Gain (loss) on extinguishment of debt (1,668) (13,760) 1,720 - 93 (1,042) 117 (832) (1,262) - - - (1,262) - - - - -
Gain (loss) on disposition - (378) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Loss from discontinued operations - 26 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Add back: SLR 19,200 20,026 17,595 2,860 3,659 3,314 4,611 14,444 5,250 3,533 3,035 3,078 14,896 3,071 3,099 3,128 3,197 12,496
Add back: above/below mkt rent 52,447 45,523 47,757 11,018 8,857 9,083 7,975 36,933 7,454 7,033 8,156 8,297 30,940 7,113 7,155 7,206 7,361 28,835
Preferred dividends - (150) (150) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Other one-time adjustments - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
-
FFO, reported 512,274 548,256 600,004 161,259 152,748 154,919 163,032 631,958 161,555 156,972 160,180 162,681 641,388 160,097 161,388 163,076 166,792 651,353
Gain from development/land sales (2,063) (378) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Gain (loss) on extinguishment of debt 1,668 13,760 (1,720) - (93) 1,042 (117) 832 1,262 - - - 1,262 - - - - -
Impairment of development/land sales 1,531 - 198 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FFO, Operating 513,410 561,638 598,482 161,259 152,655 155,961 162,915 632,790 162,817 156,972 160,180 162,681 642,650 160,097 161,388 163,076 166,792 651,353

AFFO
Maintenance Capex (25,958) (39,946) (24,518) (591) (3,615) (6,458) (17,242) (27,906) (2,578) (6,000) (6,000) (6,000) (20,578) (5,000) (5,000) (5,000) (5,000) (20,000)
Leasing Capex (37,237) (83,046) (60,663) (17,613) (18,979) (17,985) (19,643) (74,412) (23,450) (24,000) (24,000) (24,000) (95,450) (20,000) (20,000) (20,000) (20,000) (80,000)
SLR + FAS 141 (71,647) (65,549) (65,352) (13,878) (12,516) (12,397) (12,586) (51,377) (12,704) (10,566) (11,191) (11,375) (45,836) (10,184) (10,254) (10,335) (10,558) (41,331)
AFFO 378,568 373,097 447,949 129,177 117,545 119,121 113,444 479,287 124,085 116,406 118,989 121,306 480,786 124,913 126,134 127,741 131,233 510,022

Weidged avg shares + units 304,231 304,359 305,023 304,682 304,920 305,167 305,191 305,059 305,114 304,961 304,927 304,910 304,978 304,901 304,897 304,895 304,894 304,897

Reported FFO/sh 1.68 1.80 1.97 0.53 0.50 0.51 0.53 2.07 0.53 0.51 0.53 0.53 2.10 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.55 2.14
Operating FFO/sh 1.69 1.85 1.97 0.53 0.50 0.51 0.53 2.07 0.53 0.51 0.53 0.53 2.10 0.53 0.53 0.53 0.55 2.14
AFFO/sh 1.24 1.23 1.47 0.42 0.39 0.39 0.37 1.57 0.41 0.38 0.39 0.40 1.58 0.41 0.41 0.42 0.43 1.67

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 38


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 30: NAV Snapshot Brixmor Property Group (BRX)


Assets
Operating Real Estate: FTM NOI Cap Rate
Strip centers 927,709 7.0% 7.2% 7.5%
All Properties 927,709 7.0% 7.2% 7.5%
Strip center value 13,300,386 12,840,168 12,410,734

Total operating real estate value 13,300,386 12,840,168 12,410,734

CIP 193,411 193,411 193,411

Cash 104,382 104,382 104,382


Marketable securities 24,730 24,730 24,730
Receivables 75,072 75,072 75,072
Other assets, net 170,225 170,225 170,225

Total assets 13,868,206 13,407,988 12,978,554

Liabilities + Preferred Equity

Consolidated debt 5,924,834 5,924,834 5,924,834


Unconsoildated debt - - -
Total debt 5,924,834 5,924,834 5,924,834

Accounts payable + other liabilities 295,851 295,851 295,851


Preferred Equity - - -

Total liabilities 6,220,685 6,220,685 6,220,685

Net asset value 7,647,521 7,187,303 6,757,869

Shares outstanding 304,893 304,893 304,893

NAV/sh 25.00 23.50 22.00

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 39


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 31: Earnings Model DDR Corp. (DDR)


DDR Corp (DDR)
(in $000s, except per share values) 2013A 2014A 2015A 1Q16A 2Q16A 3Q16A 4Q16A 2016A 1Q17A 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E 2017E 1Q18E 2Q18E 3Q18E 4Q18E 2018E
ffo/affo estimates
consolidated noi
minimum rents (excl. slr & fas 141) 599,180 703,599 711,637 175,767 175,664 174,544 165,033 691,008 162,945 162,451 156,839 151,321 633,556 154,188 158,398 157,910 157,395 627,891
cost reimbursements 197,281 236,869 246,719 61,599 61,376 59,743 55,701 238,419 57,476 55,107 50,451 48,374 211,408 52,510 54,138 53,871 53,954 214,473
percentage rent 5,927 5,295 6,267 1,936 1,654 1,193 2,827 7,610 1,699 1,094 1,034 1,845 5,672 1,536 1,583 1,579 1,885 6,583
lease termination fees 6,300 4,000 2,800 1,200 300 1,700 400 3,600 178 178 178 178 712 178 178 178 178 712
other property income 29,571 26,347 19,577 4,143 4,462 6,458 5,307 20,370 4,399 4,114 4,780 4,598 17,892 4,163 4,283 5,071 5,025 18,541
total property revenue 838,259 976,110 987,000 244,645 243,456 243,638 229,268 961,007 226,697 222,945 213,282 206,316 869,240 212,574 218,580 218,609 218,437 868,200
operating and maintenance (137,105) (146,303) (144,611) (36,508) (34,588) (31,269) (28,812) (131,177) (32,991) (31,983) (27,733) (26,063) (118,770) (29,132) (30,036) (29,981) (29,920) (119,069)
real estate taxes (116,724) (142,730) (149,082) (36,534) (37,276) (36,900) (35,197) (145,907) (34,329) (34,568) (33,284) (32,401) (134,582) (32,371) (33,671) (33,403) (33,551) (132,996)
consolidated noi 584,430 687,077 693,307 171,603 171,592 175,469 165,259 683,923 159,377 156,393 152,265 147,853 615,888 151,071 154,873 155,225 154,965 616,135

net income attributable to noncontrolling (8,600) (800) (1,000) (200) (400) (400) - (1,000) - - - - (200) (200) (200) (200) (800)

jv noi
jv noi 94,300 63,300 50,500 12,740 13,031 13,688 13,546 53,005 12,941 12,240 11,960 10,649 47,790 9,971 9,280 10,007 9,796 39,054

net operating income (cash) 670,130 749,577 742,807 184,143 184,223 188,757 178,805 735,928 172,318 168,633 164,224 158,502 663,678 160,843 163,953 165,032 164,562 654,389

fee income 40,161 31,907 32,971 8,178 10,510 8,562 8,093 35,343 8,490 8,308 8,091 7,809 32,699 8,042 8,198 8,252 8,228 32,719
general & administrative (79,555) (84,484) (73,382) (17,876) (18,499) (18,785) (20,941) (76,101) (31,072) (23,036) (17,063) (16,505) (87,675) (17,006) (17,486) (17,489) (17,475) (69,456)
other income (6,628) (13,702) (1,839) 1,725 2,025 (2,504) (948) 299 (530) (530) (530) (530) (2,120) (500) (500) (500) (500) (2,000)

ebitda 624,108 683,298 700,557 176,170 178,259 176,030 165,010 695,469 149,206 153,376 154,723 149,276 606,581 151,379 154,164 155,295 154,815 615,652

slr & fas 141 6,400 7,800 8,100 1,600 2,400 3,300 2,900 10,200 4,284 4,500 4,500 4,500 17,784 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 18,000
other interest income 23,539 15,926 29,213 8,637 9,031 9,304 9,254 36,226 8,392 6,392 6,392 6,392 27,568 6,392 6,392 6,392 6,392 25,568
interest expense (263,844) (275,383) (264,227) (63,195) (59,290) (58,927) (56,453) (237,866) (56,710) (58,902) (58,721) (58,094) (232,427) (58,368) (58,205) (58,022) (57,945) (232,541)
non-re depreciation (3,168) (10,362) (8,181) (2,048) (2,072) (2,117) (2,112) (8,349) (2,235) (2,235) (2,235) (2,235) (8,940) (2,100) (2,100) (2,100) (2,100) (8,400)
preferred dividends (27,721) (24,055) (22,376) (5,594) (5,594) (5,594) (5,594) (22,376) (5,594) (5,594) (5,594) (5,594) (22,376) (5,594) (5,594) (5,594) (5,594) (22,376)
income attributable to op units, vested shares (577) 4,448 (1,223) (224) (234) (208) (217) (883) (137) (137) (137) (137) (548) (137) (137) (137) (137) (548)
gain on sale 4,915 (85,185) 11,333 285 (2,411) 47 264 (1,815) 1,229 - - - 1,229 - - - - -
income tax expense (11,804) (4,067) (6,285) (458) (245) (398) (680) (1,781) (223) (218) (213) (205) (859) (211) (215) (217) (216) (859)
income from discontinued operations (13,399) 96,950 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
other income 9,800 (400) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
impairment charges 25,518 (49,291) (99,273) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
write-off of preferred issuance charges (5,246) (1,943) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Reserve of preferred equity interests - - - - - - - - (76,000) - - - (76,000) - - - - -
non-operating items 11,100 (9,523) 9,483 (314) 2,120 499 (74) 2,231 86,321 - - - 86,321 - - - - -

operating ffo 368,521 357,736 347,638 115,173 119,844 121,437 112,371 468,825 108,533 97,182 98,715 93,903 398,334 95,860 98,804 100,116 99,715 394,496
reported ffo 337,149 418,493 446,911 114,859 121,964 121,936 112,297 471,056 22,212 97,182 98,715 93,903 312,013 95,860 98,804 100,116 99,715 394,496

slr & fas 141 6,400 7,800 8,100 1,600 2,400 3,300 2,900 10,200 4,284 4,500 4,500 4,500 17,784 4,500 4,500 4,500 4,500 18,000

capital expenditures
leasing 40,000 39,000 52,111 8,400 7,900 8,800 7,300 30,599 12,714 11,147 10,664 10,316 43,462 11,054 11,366 11,368 11,359 45,146
maintenance 8,600 14,400 11,715 1,000 6,000 7,900 2,400 10,060 824 2,229 2,133 2,063 8,692 2,126 2,186 2,186 2,184 8,682
total capital expenditures 48,600 53,400 63,826 9,400 13,900 16,700 9,700 40,659 13,538 13,377 12,797 12,379 52,154 13,180 13,552 13,554 13,543 53,828

affo 282,149 357,293 374,985 104,173 103,544 101,437 99,771 417,966 90,711 79,306 81,419 77,024 328,395 78,181 80,752 82,063 81,672 322,668

per share estimates

operating ffo/sh 1.12 0.99 0.96 0.31 0.33 0.33 0.30 1.27 0.30 0.26 0.27 0.26 1.09 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.27 1.07
reported ffo/s 1.02 1.16 1.23 0.31 0.33 0.33 0.30 1.28 0.06 0.26 0.27 0.26 0.85 0.26 0.27 0.27 0.27 1.07
affo/sh 0.86 0.99 1.03 0.28 0.28 0.28 0.27 1.14 0.25 0.22 0.22 0.21 0.90 0.21 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.87

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 40


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 32: NAV Snapshot DDR Corp. (DDR)


operating real estate ftm noi cap rate
shopping centers 712,733 7.6% 7.3% 7.1%
total 712,733 7.1% 7.3% 7.6%
real estate value 9,405,584 9,726,472 10,070,029
ttm income multiple value
fee business 22,973 6.0x 137,838 137,838 137,838
lease termination fees 712 6.0x 4,272 4,272 4,272
construction in progress 235,959 235,959 235,959
land held for development 6,920 6,920 6,920
cash and equivalents 19,715 19,715 19,715
accounts receivable 182,331 182,331 182,331
other assets (142,372) (142,372) (142,372)
total assets 9,850,247 10,171,135 10,514,692

consolidated debt 4,520,926 4,520,926 4,520,926


unconsolidated debt 397,765 397,765 397,765
total debt 4,918,691 4,918,691 4,918,691
other liabilities 309,638 309,638 309,638
preferred 350,000 350,000 350,000
total liabilities + preferred 5,578,329 5,578,329 5,578,329

shares + units 367,006 367,006 367,006

net asset value 4,271,918 4,592,806 4,936,363


nav/sh 11.50 12.50 13.50

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 41


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 33: Earnings Model Federal Realty Trust (FRT)


Federal Realty Investment Trust (FRT)
(in $000s, except per share values) 2013A 2014A 2015A 1Q16A 2Q16A 3Q16A 4Q16A 2016A 1Q17A 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E 2017E 1Q18E 2Q18E 3Q18E 4Q18E 2018E

ffo/affo estimates
consolidated noi
minimum rents (excl. slr & fas 141) 469,575 500,901 542,322 143,735 146,473 147,895 151,114 589,217 150,046 153,377 153,523 156,614 613,561 155,671 161,844 161,503 164,480 643,498
cost reimbursements 122,723 135,592 148,110 41,802 36,637 40,565 39,038 158,042 41,518 40,733 40,738 41,533 164,522 45,190 43,978 44,672 46,295 180,135
percentage rent 9,359 10,169 11,911 3,069 2,482 2,315 3,111 10,977 2,823 2,902 2,753 3,440 11,918 3,270 3,217 3,204 3,293 12,985
other rental income 11,192 11,860 15,169 4,402 4,243 4,694 5,208 18,547 4,460 3,858 4,613 4,717 17,648 4,216 4,071 4,077 4,166 16,531
other property income 12,171 14,758 11,810 2,312 3,488 2,759 2,456 11,015 2,190 3,090 3,363 3,879 12,522 2,339 4,039 3,222 3,268 12,868
total property revenue 625,020 673,280 729,322 195,320 193,323 198,228 200,927 787,798 201,037 203,960 204,991 210,183 820,171 210,687 217,149 216,680 221,501 866,017
rental expenses (118,729) (135,417) (147,593) (42,819) (36,978) (38,588) (39,941) (158,326) (41,109) (39,834) (39,174) (40,738) (160,854) (45,173) (43,586) (43,552) (45,964) (178,276)
real estate taxes (71,856) (76,506) (85,824) (22,794) (23,397) (24,973) (24,122) (95,286) (25,090) (25,603) (25,678) (25,057) (101,428) (24,902) (25,893) (25,893) (26,315) (103,003)
consolidated noi 434,435 461,357 495,905 129,707 132,948 134,667 136,864 534,186 134,838 138,523 140,139 144,389 557,889 140,612 147,670 147,234 149,223 584,739
net income attributable to noncontrolling (4,927) (7,754) (8,205) (2,108) (2,957) (2,221) (1,687) (8,973) (1,880) (1,997) (2,002) (2,059) (7,939) (1,727) (1,843) (1,833) (1,855) (7,258)
jv noi estimate
equity in earnings of unconsolidated jvs 1,498 1,243 1,416 41 - - 9 50 - - - - - - - - - -
depreciation & amortization 1,504 1,555 1,345 45 - - - 45 - - - - - - - - - -
share of interest expense 1,001 1,010 1,019 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
jv noi 4,003 3,808 3,780 86 - - 9 95 - - - - - - - - - -
net operating income (cash) 433,511 457,411 491,480 127,685 129,991 132,446 135,186 525,308 132,958 136,526 138,137 142,330 549,950 138,884 145,827 145,402 147,368 577,480

general & administrative (31,970) (32,316) (35,645) (8,010) (9,036) (8,232) (8,121) (33,399) (8,267) (8,566) (8,610) (8,828) (34,271) (8,638) (8,903) (8,884) (9,082) (35,507)
other income - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
ebitda 401,541 425,095 455,835 119,675 120,955 124,214 127,065 491,909 124,691 127,960 129,527 133,502 515,679 130,246 136,924 136,518 138,286 541,974

slr & fas 141 8,400 7,800 10,300 2,300 3,100 2,000 2,400 9,800 5,600 4,000 4,000 4,000 17,600 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 20,000
mortgage interest income 5,155 5,010 4,390 724 1,558 929 782 3,993 752 752 752 752 3,008 752 752 752 752 3,008
other interest income 432 94 149 103 77 105 89 374 106 106 106 106 424 70 70 70 70 280
interest expense - consolidated (104,977) (93,941) (92,553) (23,729) (23,101) (24,313) (23,851) (94,994) (23,758) (24,802) (25,357) (25,661) (99,578) (26,100) (26,332) (26,504) (27,072) (106,008)
interest expense - jv (1,001) (1,010) (1,019) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
non-re depreciation (5,464) (5,918) (6,882) (1,912) (1,871) (1,864) (1,910) (7,557) (2,013) (2,013) (2,013) (2,013) (8,052) (2,114) (2,114) (2,114) (2,114) (8,455)
preferred dividends (541) (541) (541) (135) (135) (136) (135) (541) (135) (135) (135) (135) (541) (135) (135) (135) (135) (542)
income attributable to op units, vested shares (417) 1,557 2,251 563 528 487 481 2,059 444 500 500 500 1,944 550 550 550 550 2,200
non-operating items (13,304) (10,545) (19,006) - 1,086 239 - 1,325 108 - - - 108 - - - - -
reported ffo 289,824 327,601 352,858 97,589 102,197 101,661 104,921 406,368 105,795 106,367 107,380 111,050 430,593 108,269 114,714 114,136 115,337 452,457
operating ffo 303,128 338,146 371,930 97,589 101,111 101,422 104,921 405,043 105,687 106,367 107,380 111,050 430,485 108,269 114,714 114,136 115,337 452,457

slr & fas 141 8,400 7,800 10,300 2,300 3,100 2,000 2,400 9,800 5,600 4,000 4,000 4,000 17,600 5,000 5,000 5,000 5,000 20,000
capital expenditures
leasing & tenant incentives 27,660 28,471 24,050 7,159 8,269 8,269 10,206 33,903 9,150 8,770 8,815 9,038 35,773 9,060 9,337 9,317 9,525 37,239
maintenance capex 21,372 18,414 19,699 1,689 5,492 5,492 13,227 25,900 3,427 4,283 5,125 13,836 26,671 3,160 4,560 5,417 14,581 27,719
total capital expenditures 49,032 46,885 43,749 8,848 13,761 13,761 23,433 59,803 12,577 13,053 13,939 22,874 62,444 12,220 13,898 14,734 24,106 64,958
affo 245,696 283,461 317,881 86,441 84,250 85,661 79,088 335,440 87,510 89,314 89,441 84,176 350,441 91,049 95,817 94,402 86,231 367,499

per share estimates


operating ffo/sh 4.61 4.94 5.32 1.38 1.41 1.40 1.45 5.64 1.45 1.46 1.48 1.53 5.92 1.49 1.58 1.57 1.59 6.22
reported ffo/sh 4.41 4.79 5.05 1.38 1.42 1.41 1.45 5.65 1.45 1.46 1.48 1.53 5.92 1.49 1.58 1.57 1.59 6.22

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 42


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 34: NAV Snapshot Federal Realty Trust (FRT)


operating real estate ftm noi cap rate
shopping centers 440,434 5.2% 5.0% 4.7%
mixed use 110,552 4.5% 4.3% 4.0%
apartments 27,170 4.3% 4.0% 3.8%
total 578,156 5.0% 4.8% 4.5%
real estate value 11,471,069 12,073,214 12,742,546
ttm income multiple value
fee business - 0.0x - - -
lease termination fees 3,000 6.0x 18,000 18,000 18,000
construction in progress 1,198,676 1,198,676 1,198,676
cash and equivalents 20,112 20,112 20,112
accounts receivable 35,775 35,775 35,775
other assets 253,956 253,956 253,956
total assets 12,997,588 13,599,733 14,269,065

consolidated debt 3,013,369 3,013,369 3,013,369


unconsolidated debt - - -
total debt 3,013,369 3,013,369 3,013,369
other liabilities 345,026 345,026 345,026
preferred 10,000 10,000 10,000
total liabilities + preferred 3,368,395 3,368,395 3,368,395

shares + units 73,037 73,037 73,037

net asset value 9,629,193 10,231,338 10,900,670


nav/sh 132.00 140.00 149.00

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 43


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 35: Earnings Model Kimco Realty (KIM)


Kimco Realty (KIM)
(in $000s, except per share values) 2013A 2014A 2015A 1Q16A 2Q16A 3Q16A 4Q16A 2016A 1Q17A 2Q17E 3Q17E 4Q17E 2017E 1Q18E 2Q18E 3Q18E 4Q18E 2018E

ffo/affo estimates
consolidated noi
minimum rents (excl. slr & fas 141) 688,304 742,701 839,800 208,616 211,622 209,566 213,227 843,031 214,003 222,087 218,791 217,748 872,629 222,253 231,617 228,118 228,425 910,413
cost reimbursements 184,179 207,174 238,051 57,013 57,936 57,423 66,643 239,015 58,129 64,794 63,980 65,221 252,125 65,009 67,771 69,331 69,030 271,141
percentage rent 7,400 5,293 5,968 2,130 1,655 1,196 447 5,428 2,380 1,110 1,249 1,742 6,481 2,472 1,158 2,281 2,284 8,195
other property income 20,731 19,536 21,044 3,726 6,528 5,223 4,548 20,025 3,551 4,886 5,470 4,355 18,262 3,688 8,107 4,562 4,568 20,925
lease termination income 3,678 1,334 6,218 5,617 883 359 82 6,941 360 360 360 360 1,440 800 800 800 800 3,200
total property revenue 904,292 976,038 1,111,081 277,102 278,624 273,767 284,947 1,114,440 278,423 293,237 289,850 289,427 1,150,936 294,222 309,453 305,092 305,108 1,213,875

rent (13,355) (14,250) (12,347) (2,818) (2,728) (2,728) (2,719) (10,993) (2,783) (3,331) (3,282) (2,777) (12,173) (4,445) (4,632) (4,562) (2,913) (16,553)
real estate taxes (119,171) (128,510) (147,150) (34,472) (35,791) (37,702) (38,649) (146,614) (38,269) (39,976) (39,362) (39,468) (157,075) (38,894) (41,691) (41,040) (39,974) (161,599)
operating and maintenance (118,031) (127,287) (144,170) (34,553) (33,223) (32,590) (40,544) (140,910) (34,230) (39,976) (39,382) (41,372) (154,960) (40,006) (41,691) (41,061) (43,401) (166,159)
bad debt expense (8,147) (5,398) (6,075) (3,475) (1,185) (1,093) 189 (5,564) (1,404) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (4,404) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (1,000) (4,000)
consolidated noi 645,588 700,593 801,339 201,784 205,697 199,654 203,224 810,359 201,737 208,954 206,824 204,809 822,325 209,877 220,439 217,429 217,820 865,565

noi attributable to noncontrolling interests (6,875) (6,571) (2,113) (173) (170) (209) (193) (745) (144) (173) (217) (195) (728) (150) (182) (228) (207) (766)

jv noi*
jv noi 378,248 308,477 235,016 44,867 41,184 37,067 37,033 160,151 35,116 32,308 31,278 31,467 130,169 33,522 30,819 29,806 29,951 124,099

net operating income (cash) 1,016,961 1,002,499 1,034,242 246,478 246,881 236,512 240,064 969,935 236,709 241,089 237,886 236,082 951,766 243,249 251,076 247,008 247,564 988,897

fee income 36,430 35,010 22,295 4,111 4,373 5,790 4,117 18,391 4,197 4,417 4,343 4,199 17,156 4,323 4,549 4,473 4,325 17,670
mortgage financing income 4,304 3,129 2,940 410 414 408 402 1,634 - - - - - 450 450 450 450 1,800
general & administrative (128,062) (122,395) (122,735) (31,929) (30,207) (27,983) (27,462) (117,581) (30,574) (28,931) (28,546) (28,330) (116,381) (31,622) (30,129) (29,641) (29,708) (121,100)
other income (537) (1,087) 138 (1,108) 2,055 3,473 1,196 5,616 1,273 1,273 1,273 1,273 5,092 1,500 1,500 1,500 1,500 6,000
equity in income of other re investments 31,135 38,041 36,090 10,799 7,959 3,774 5,241 27,773 3,687 3,687 3,687 3,687 14,748 3,687 3,687 3,687 3,687 14,748

ebitda 960,231 955,197 972,970 228,761 231,475 221,974 223,558 905,768 215,292 221,535 218,642 216,911 872,381 221,587 231,133 227,477 227,819 908,015

slr & fas 141 16,692 22,636 33,293 15,990 8,491 5,520 7,963 37,964 10,968 9,000 9,000 9,000 37,968 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 24,000
interest, dividends and other investment income 17,058 1,053 38,635 - 178 477 651 1,306 - - - - 500 500 500 500 2,000
interest expense (366,347) (322,385) (287,084) (62,627) (61,788) (54,592) (48,917) (227,924) (46,482) (48,148) (47,831) (47,681) (190,143) (47,973) (48,392) (48,733) (49,028) (194,126)
preferred dividends (58,292) (58,292) (57,084) (11,555) (11,555) (11,555) (11,555) (46,220) (11,555) (11,555) (11,555) (11,555) (46,219) (11,555) (11,555) (11,555) (11,555) (46,219)
non-re depreciation 193 (5,264) (9,741) (2,621) (2,179) (2,013) (1,408) (8,221) (1,225) (1,225) (1,225) (1,225) (4,900) (1,250) (1,250) (1,250) (1,250) (5,000)
income tax expense (33,955) (20,237) (61,779) (12,188) (48) (32,421) (480) (45,137) 454 (2,208) (2,171) (2,100) (6,025) (2,161) (2,275) (2,236) (2,163) (8,835)
gain on sale 16 977 48,103 8,094 (1,949) (13,041) (10,690) (17,586) 1,686 - - - 1,686 - - - - -
income from discontinued operations (50,618) (87,797) (84) - - 9,771 - 9,771 - - - - - - - - - -
income attributable to noncontrolling 1,803 (5,308) (6,028) (1,441) (1,419) (2,052) (1,975) (6,887) (1,993) (1,993) (1,993) (1,993) (7,972) (1,993) (1,993) (1,993) (1,993) (7,972)
adjustment for jv ffo - - - - (3,144) (6,771) 6,853 (3,062) (11,941) - - - (11,941) - - - - -
early extinguishment of debt 1,803 - - - - (45,674) (45,674) - - - - - - - - - -
other 64,010 115,292 (27,333) (4,191) 42 6,784 (1,015) 1,620 (64) - - - (64) - - - - -
non-operating items (8,831) (19,340) (39,808) (5,361) (2,587) 84,202 (2,565) 73,689 623 - - - 623 - - - - -

reported ffo 552,594 595,871 643,868 158,222 158,104 76,407 162,985 555,718 155,140 165,406 162,867 161,358 644,771 163,155 172,168 168,210 168,330 671,863
operating ffo 543,763 576,531 604,060 152,861 155,517 160,609 160,420 629,407 155,763 165,406 162,867 161,358 645,394 163,155 172,168 168,210 168,330 671,863

slr & fas 141 16,692 22,636 33,293 15,990 8,491 5,520 7,963 37,964 10,968 9,000 9,000 9,000 37,968 6,000 6,000 6,000 6,000 24,000

capital expenditures
leasing 77,400 73,400 66,300 15,700 17,800 21,300 14,400 69,200 15,100 18,734 21,739 17,366 72,938 15,957 19,770 22,882 19,832 78,440
maintenance 17,500 29,400 36,000 2,200 8,400 10,600 21,100 42,300 2,000 4,399 8,695 17,366 32,460 2,942 6,189 12,204 18,306 39,641
total capital expenditures 94,900 102,800 102,300 17,900 26,200 31,900 35,500 111,500 17,100 23,132 30,434 34,731 105,398 18,899 25,959 35,086 38,138 118,082

affo 432,171 451,095 468,467 118,971 120,826 123,189 116,957 479,943 127,695 133,274 123,432 117,627 502,028 138,256 140,210 127,125 124,192 529,782

per share estimates

operating ffo/sh 1.32 1.39 1.46 0.37 0.37 0.38 0.38 1.50 0.37 0.39 0.38 0.38 1.52 0.38 0.40 0.40 0.40 1.58
reported ffo/sh 1.34 1.44 1.56 0.38 0.38 0.18 0.38 1.32 0.37 0.39 0.38 0.38 1.52 0.38 0.40 0.40 0.40 1.58

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 44


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 36: NAV Snapshot Kimco Realty (KIM)


operating real estate ftm noi cap rate
shopping centers 971,348 7.1% 6.9% 6.6%
total 971,348 6.6% 6.9% 7.1%
real estate value 13,593,326 14,086,140 14,616,032
ttm income multiple value
fee business 11,086 6.0x 66,517 66,517 66,517
lease termination fees 1,880 5.0x 9,400 9,400 9,400
construction in progress 624,756 624,756 624,756
cash and equivalents 167,454 167,454 167,454
accounts receivable 60,411 60,411 60,411
other assets 920,328 920,328 920,328
total assets 15,442,192 15,935,006 16,464,898

consolidated debt 5,124,883 5,124,883 5,124,883


unconsolidated debt 731,988 731,988 731,988
total debt 5,856,871 5,856,871 5,856,871
other liabilities 484,314 484,314 484,314
preferred 800,000 800,000 800,000
total liabilities + preferred 7,141,185 7,141,185 7,141,185

shares + units 425,640 425,640 425,640

net asset value 8,301,007 8,793,821 9,323,713


nav/sh 19.50 21.00 22.00

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 45


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Appendix D: NAV Sensitivity Analysis

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 46


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 37: NAV Sensitivity Analysis Malls


Currernt Cap Rate - CBL
$14.50 8.60% 8.70% 8.80% 8.90% 9.00% 9.10% 9.20% 9.30% 9.40% 9.50% 9.60%
-3.0% 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 12.0 11.5
-2.5% 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5
Est. NOI Growth
-2.0% 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 12.0
-1.5% 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 13.0 12.5 12.0
-1.0% 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.5
-0.5% 16.5 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 13.0 12.5
0.0% 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5
0.5% 17.0 16.5 16.0 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.0
1.0% 17.5 17.0 16.5 16.0 15.5 15.0 14.5 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0

Currernt Cap Rate - GGP


$26.00 5.10% 5.20% 5.30% 5.40% 5.50% 5.60% 5.70% 5.80% 5.90% 6.00% 6.10%
0.0% 30.0 29.0 28.0 27.5 26.5 26.0 25.0 24.5 23.5 23.0 22.5
0.5% 30.0 29.0 28.0 27.5 26.5 26.0 25.0 24.5 23.5 23.0 22.5
Est. NOI Growth

1.0% 30.0 29.0 28.0 27.5 26.5 26.0 25.0 24.5 23.5 23.0 22.5
1.5% 30.0 29.0 28.0 27.5 26.5 26.0 25.0 24.5 23.5 23.0 22.5
2.0% 30.0 29.0 28.0 27.5 26.5 26.0 25.0 24.5 23.5 23.0 22.5
2.5% 30.0 29.0 28.0 27.5 26.5 26.0 25.0 24.5 23.5 23.0 22.5
3.0% 30.0 29.0 28.0 27.5 26.5 26.0 25.0 24.5 23.5 23.0 22.5
3.5% 30.0 29.0 28.0 27.5 26.5 26.0 25.0 24.5 23.5 23.0 22.5
4.0% 30.0 29.0 28.0 27.5 26.5 26.0 25.0 24.5 23.5 23.0 22.5

Currernt Cap Rate - SPG


##### 4.90% 5.00% 5.10% 5.20% 5.30% 5.40% 5.50% 5.60% 5.70% 5.80% 5.90%
0.0% 189.0 186.0 183.0 181.0 178.0 176.0 173.0 171.0 169.0 167.0 165.0
0.5% 190.0 187.0 184.0 181.0 179.0 176.0 174.0 172.0 169.0 167.0 165.0
Est. NOI Growth

1.0% 190.0 187.0 185.0 182.0 179.0 177.0 175.0 172.0 170.0 168.0 166.0
1.5% 191.0 188.0 185.0 183.0 180.0 178.0 175.0 173.0 171.0 168.0 166.0
2.0% 192.0 189.0 186.0 183.0 181.0 178.0 176.0 174.0 171.0 169.0 167.0
2.5% 193.0 190.0 187.0 184.0 181.0 179.0 176.0 174.0 172.0 170.0 168.0
3.0% 193.0 190.0 187.0 185.0 182.0 180.0 177.0 175.0 172.0 170.0 168.0
3.5% 194.0 191.0 188.0 185.0 183.0 180.0 178.0 175.0 173.0 171.0 169.0
4.0% 195.0 192.0 189.0 186.0 183.0 181.0 178.0 176.0 174.0 172.0 169.0

Currernt Cap Rate - TCO


#### 4.50% 4.60% 4.70% 4.80% 4.90% 5.00% 5.10% 5.20% 5.30% 5.40% 5.50%
0.5% 95.0 92.0 89.0 87.0 84.0 82.0 80.0 78.0 76.0 74.0 72.0
1.0% 95.0 93.0 90.0 87.0 85.0 83.0 80.0 78.0 76.0 74.0 72.0
Est. NOI Growth

1.5% 96.0 93.0 90.0 88.0 85.0 83.0 81.0 79.0 77.0 74.0 73.0
2.0% 96.0 94.0 91.0 88.0 86.0 84.0 81.0 79.0 77.0 75.0 73.0
2.5% 97.0 94.0 91.0 89.0 86.0 84.0 82.0 79.0 77.0 75.0 73.0
3.0% 97.0 95.0 92.0 89.0 87.0 84.0 82.0 80.0 78.0 76.0 74.0
3.5% 98.0 95.0 92.0 90.0 87.0 85.0 83.0 80.0 78.0 76.0 74.0
4.0% 98.0 96.0 93.0 90.0 88.0 85.0 83.0 81.0 79.0 77.0 75.0
4.5% 99.0 96.0 93.0 91.0 88.0 86.0 83.0 81.0 79.0 77.0 75.0

Currernt Cap Rate - MAC


$70.00 4.90% 5.00% 5.10% 5.20% 5.30% 5.40% 5.50% 5.60% 5.70% 5.80% 5.90%
0.5% 79.0 77.0 75.0 72.0 70.0 68.0 66.0 64.0 62.0 60.0 59.0
1.0% 80.0 78.0 75.0 73.0 71.0 69.0 67.0 65.0 63.0 61.0 59.0
Est. NOI Growth

1.5% 81.0 78.0 76.0 73.0 71.0 69.0 67.0 65.0 63.0 61.0 60.0
2.0% 81.0 79.0 76.0 74.0 72.0 70.0 68.0 66.0 64.0 62.0 60.0
2.5% 82.0 79.0 77.0 75.0 72.0 70.0 68.0 66.0 64.0 62.0 61.0
3.0% 83.0 80.0 78.0 75.0 73.0 71.0 69.0 67.0 65.0 63.0 61.0
3.5% 83.0 81.0 78.0 76.0 74.0 71.0 69.0 67.0 65.0 64.0 62.0
4.0% 84.0 81.0 79.0 76.0 74.0 72.0 70.0 68.0 66.0 64.0 62.0
4.5% 84.0 82.0 79.0 77.0 75.0 73.0 70.0 68.0 66.0 65.0 63.0

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 47


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

Exhibit 38: NAV Sensitivity Analysis Shopping Centers


Currernt Cap Rate - AAT
$47.00 4.80% 4.90% 5.00% 5.10% 5.20% 5.30% 5.40% 5.50% 5.60% 5.70% 5.80%
-1.5% 49.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 45.0 45.0 45.0
-1.0% 49.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 45.0 45.0

Est. NOI Growth


-0.5% 49.0 49.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 45.0 45.0
0.0% 49.0 49.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 45.0 45.0
0.5% 49.0 49.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 45.0 45.0
1.0% 49.0 49.0 48.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 45.0
1.5% 50.0 49.0 49.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 46.0 45.0
2.0% 50.0 49.0 49.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 45.0
2.5% 50.0 49.0 49.0 48.0 48.0 47.0 47.0 47.0 46.0 46.0 45.0

Currernt Cap Rate - BRX


$23.50 6.70% 6.80% 6.90% 7.00% 7.10% 7.20% 7.30% 7.40% 7.50% 7.60% 7.70%
-0.5% 26.0 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.5 22.5 22.0 21.5 21.0 20.5 20.0
0.0% 26.0 25.5 24.5 24.0 23.5 23.0 22.5 22.0 21.5 21.0 20.5
Est. NOI Growth

0.5% 26.5 25.5 25.0 24.5 23.5 23.0 22.5 22.0 21.5 21.0 20.5
1.0% 26.5 26.0 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.5 23.0 22.0 21.5 21.0 20.5
1.5% 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.0 23.5 23.0 22.5 22.0 21.5 21.0
2.0% 27.0 26.5 25.5 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 21.5 21.0
2.5% 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.5 23.0 22.5 22.0 21.0
3.0% 27.5 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.0 23.5 23.0 22.5 22.0 21.5
3.5% 27.5 27.0 26.5 25.5 25.0 24.5 24.0 23.0 22.5 22.0 21.5

Currernt Cap Rate - DDR


$12.50 6.85% 6.95% 7.05% 7.15% 7.25% 7.35% 7.45% 7.55% 7.65% 7.75% 7.85%
-0.5% 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.5
0.0% 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 12.0 11.5 11.0 10.5 10.5
Est. NOI Growth

0.5% 14.0 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 12.0 11.5 11.0 11.0 10.5
1.0% 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.5 11.0 10.5
1.5% 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 12.0 11.5 11.0 11.0
2.0% 14.5 14.0 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.0 11.0
2.5% 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.0 13.0 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.5 11.0
3.0% 15.0 14.5 14.0 13.5 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.0 12.0 11.5 11.0
3.5% 15.0 14.5 14.0 14.0 13.5 13.0 12.5 12.5 12.0 11.5 11.5

Currernt Cap Rate - FRT


##### 4.40% 4.50% 4.60% 4.70% 4.80% 4.90% 5.00% 5.10% 5.20% 5.30% 5.40%
0.5% 150.0 148.0 145.0 143.0 140.0 138.0 136.0 134.0 131.0 129.0 128.0
1.0% 151.0 148.0 146.0 143.0 141.0 138.0 136.0 134.0 132.0 130.0 128.0
Est. NOI Growth

1.5% 152.0 149.0 146.0 144.0 141.0 139.0 137.0 135.0 133.0 131.0 129.0
2.0% 152.0 150.0 147.0 144.0 142.0 140.0 137.0 135.0 133.0 131.0 129.0
2.5% 153.0 150.0 147.0 145.0 142.0 140.0 138.0 136.0 134.0 132.0 130.0
3.0% 154.0 151.0 148.0 145.0 143.0 141.0 138.0 136.0 134.0 132.0 130.0
3.5% 154.0 151.0 149.0 146.0 144.0 141.0 139.0 137.0 135.0 133.0 131.0
4.0% 155.0 152.0 149.0 147.0 144.0 142.0 139.0 137.0 135.0 133.0 131.0
4.5% 155.0 153.0 150.0 147.0 145.0 142.0 140.0 138.0 136.0 134.0 132.0

Currernt Cap Rate - KIM


$21.00 6.40% 6.50% 6.60% 6.70% 6.80% 6.90% 7.00% 7.10% 7.20% 7.30% 7.40%
0.0% 23.0 22.0 21.0 21.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 19.0 18.0 18.0
0.5% 23.0 22.0 22.0 21.0 21.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 19.0 18.0 18.0
Est. NOI Growth

1.0% 23.0 22.0 22.0 21.0 21.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 18.0
1.5% 23.0 23.0 22.0 21.0 21.0 20.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 19.0 18.0
2.0% 23.0 23.0 22.0 22.0 21.0 21.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 19.0 18.0
2.5% 23.0 23.0 22.0 22.0 21.0 21.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 19.0 19.0
3.0% 24.0 23.0 23.0 22.0 21.0 21.0 21.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 19.0
3.5% 24.0 23.0 23.0 22.0 22.0 21.0 21.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 19.0
4.0% 24.0 23.0 23.0 22.0 22.0 21.0 21.0 20.0 20.0 19.0 19.0

Source: Company reports and Mizuho Securities USA.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 48


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

PriceTargetCalculationandKeyRisks
American Assets Trust, Inc.
Our price target of $42.50/sh equates to our NAV estimate of $47.00/sh (with an applied
10% discount from superior asset quality and higher probability of M&A more than
offset by smaller size and liquidity). Risks to our views include increased fears of a
near-term U.S. recession, widening CMBS spreads and slowing retail sales, all of which
are disproportionately negative for lower productivity landlords.

Brixmor Property Group, Inc.


Our price target of $19.00/sh equates to our NAV estimate of $23.50/sh less an applied
20% warranted discount. While we like the longer-term upside embedded within the
BRX portfolio, we believe a discount is warranted until further clarity is gained on
the risks laid out above. Risks to our views include increased fears of a near-term
U.S. recession, widening CMBS spreads and slowing retail sales, all of which are
disproportionately negative for lower productivity landlords.

CBL & Associates Properties, Inc.


Our price target of $8.50/sh equates to our NAV estimate of $14.50/sh (with an applied
40% discount given number of higher risk factors (high leverage, aforementioned B
mall headwinds and slower growth). Risks to our views include increased fears of a
near-term U.S. recession, widening CMBS spreads and slowing retail sales, all of which
are disproportionately negative for lower productivity landlords.

DDR Corp.
Our price target of $9.50/sh equates to our NAV estimate of $12.50/sh (with an applied
25% discount due above-average leverage and slower n/t earnings growth given sizable
recent / projected asset sales). Risks to our views include increased fears of a near-
term U.S. recession, widening CMBS spreads and slowing retail sales, all of which are
disproportionately negative for lower productivity landlords.

Federal Realty Investment Trust


Our price target of $140.00/sh equates to our NAV estimate of $140.00/sh (with no
applied premium given superior portfolio), balance sheet and growth attributes. Risks
to our views include increased fears of a near-term U.S. recession, widening CMBS
spreads and slowing retail sales, all of which are disproportionately negative for lower
productivity landlords.

General Growth Properties, Inc.


Our price target of $24.50/sh equates to our NAV estimate of $26.00/sh with 5%
discount applied due to unfavorable leverage, complexity and liquidity attributes
partially offset by high quality portfolio and M&A potential. Risks to our views
include increased fears of a near-term U.S. recession, widening CMBS spreads and
slowing retail sales, all of which are disproportionately negative for lower productivity
landlords.

Kimco Realty Corp


Our price target of $19.00/sh equates to our NAV estimate of $21.00/sh with 10%
discount given strong liquidity offset by slower n/t earnings growth associated with
sizeable recent asset sales. Risks to our views include increased fears of a near-term

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 49


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

U.S. recession, widening CMBS spreads and slowing retail sales, all of which are
disproportionately negative for lower productivity landlords.

Simon Property Group, Inc


Our price target of $178.00/sh equates to our NAV estimate of $178.00/sh with 0%
discount given due to slowing growth and outlet headwinds. Risks to our views
include increased fears of a near-term U.S. recession, widening CMBS spreads and
slowing retail sales, all of which are disproportionately negative for lower productivity
landlords.

Taubman Centers, Inc.


Our price target of $76.00/sh equates to our NAV estimate of $84.00/sh with a 10%
discount, given company specific risks including corporate governance (take-over
proof corporate by-laws, staggered board), rising leverage ahead, further investment
in Asia and sizable planned Beverly Centers defensive investment. Macro risks to our
views include potential U.S. recession, widening CMBS spreads and slowing retail
sales, all of which are disproportionately negative for lower productivity landlords.

The Macerich Company


Our price target of $63.00/sh equates to our NAV estimate of $70.00/sh (with an applied
10% discount applied due to lower M&A probability, despite similar overall asset
productivity to GGP and SPG). Risks to our views include increased fears of a near-
term U.S. recession, widening CMBS spreads and slowing retail sales, all of which are
disproportionately negative for lower productivity landlords.

May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 50


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
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at Equity Research Editorial Department, Mizuho Securities USA LLC, 320 Park Avenue, 12th Floor, New York NY, 10022.
Investment Risks and Valuation Methods can be located in the following section of this research report - Price Target Calculation and Key Risks.

Ownership Disclosures and Material Conflicts of Interest or Position as Officer or Director


None

Receipt of Compensation
Mizuho Securities USA LLC and or its affiliates makes a market in the following securities: Brixmor Property Group, Inc., CBL & Associates Properties,
Inc., DDR Corp., Federal Realty Investment Trust, General Growth Properties, Inc., Kimco Realty Corp, Simon Property Group, Inc, Taubman Centers,
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Mizuho Securities USA LLC and or its affiliates has received compensation for investment banking services for Brixmor Property Group, Inc., Kimco
Realty Corp and Simon Property Group, Inc in the past 12 months.
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Property Group, Inc., Kimco Realty Corp and Simon Property Group, Inc in the next 3 months.
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Realty Corp and Simon Property Group, Inc in the past 12 months.
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I, Haendel St. Juste, hereby certify that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any and all the subject
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Rating Distribution
(As of 5/29 ) % of coverage IB service past 12 mo
Buy (Buy) 43.85% 51.75%
Hold (Neutral) 52.31% 38.24%
Sell (Underperform) 3.85% 50.00%

For disclosure purposes only (NYSE and FINRA ratings distribution requirements), our Buy, Neutral and Underperform ratings are displayed as Buy, Hold and Sell,
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May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 51


Subdued Mood at ICSC 2017; Upgrading SPG to Buy

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May 30, 2017 Mizuho Securities USA LLC 52

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