Reliability Engineering and System Safety 67 (2000) 311315

www.elsevier.com/locate/ress

A practical engineering method for fuzzy reliability analysis of

mechanical structures
Li Bing*, Zhu Meilin, Xu Kai
Department of Power Engineering, Room 102, No. 2 East 3 Block, Huazhong University of Science & Technology, Wuhan 430074, Peoples Republic of China
Received 10 August 1998; accepted 21 September 1999

Abstract
The fuzzy sets theory in reliability analyses is studied. The structure stress is related to several other variables, such as structure sizes,
material properties, external loads; in most cases, it is difficult to be expressed in a mathematical formula, and the related variables are not
random variables, but fuzzy variables or other uncertain variables which have not only randomness but also fuzziness. In this paper, a novel
approach is presented to use the finite element analysis as a numerical experiment tool, and to find directly, by fuzzy linear regression
method, the statistical property of the structure stress. Based on the fuzzy stressrandom strength interference model proposed in this paper,
the fuzzy reliability of the mechanical structure can be evaluated. The compressor blade of a given turbocharger is then introduced as a
realistic example to illustrate the approach. q 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Keywords: Finite element analysis; Fuzzy linear regression; Fuzzy reliability

1. Introduction In 1965, Zadeh [5] introduced fuzzy sets theory. Subse-

Today the rotating parts of a turbocharger are subjected to
highly hostile working conditions. The manufacturer is
greatly interested with any improvement in performance,
life and weight reduction without loss of reliability. There-
fore, it is worthwhile to carefully estimate the reliability of
rotating parts in order to improve the geometry or eventually
modify the design. Reliability analyses of mechanical struc-
ture require some information on the probability distribution
of structure stress and material strength. We know it is
difficult to obtain the distribution laws of the stress and
strength for a complicated mechanical structure. There are
many methods, such as Monte-Carlo method [1], Monte-
Carlo FEM method [2] and PRAME [3] to solve this
problem. It has been approved that the distribution of
material strength generally follows a normal distribution
[4], and the probability distribution of the material strength
can be obtained from a series of testing data. The structure
stress is related to several other variables, such as structure
sizes, material properties and external loads; and in most
cases, it is difficult to be expressed in a mathematical
formula, and its related variables are not random variables,
but fuzzy variables or other uncertain variables which have
not only randomness but also fuzziness.
* Corresponding author.
E-mail address: bigbli@hotmail.com (Li Bing).
0951-8320/00/$ - see front matter q 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S0951-832 0(99)00073-3
quently, the theory and the mathematics of fuzzy sets were
fleshed-out and applied in many research fields [68]. In
1982, Tanaka [9] presented the fuzzy linear regression
method, and the applications of fuzzy linear regression
method appear to have roots in many engineering fields
[1012].
In this paper, the authors propose a method for fuzzy
reliability analysis of mechanical structures where the
fuzzy linear regression method is used in conjunction with
the finite element method. The finite element code is used as
a numerical experiment tool to obtain a series of stress
values, then the fuzzy regression function of the structure
stress is obtained by the fuzzy linear regression method. The
regression coefficients of the obtained regression function
for the structure stress are triangular fuzzy members, so the
structure stress will be a triangular fuzzy member when its
related elements are given in mean values. Similar to the
stressstrength inference model in the classical reliability
theory, the fuzzy stressrandom strength is proposed. A
normal distribution is used to approximate the probability
distribution of the material strength, and the structure stress
follows the triangular distribution, so the fuzzy random
reliability of the mechanical structure can be evaluated.
Following a brief description of the fuzzy linear regression
method, the novel fuzzy reliability analysis approach is
developed and described, and finally the compressor blade
of a given turbocharger is used to illustrate the approach.
312 Li Bing et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 67 (2000) 311315

S~ ( x)
f (x) stress
Strength

S~ ( x)
f (x)

x
Fig. 2. The finite element meshes of a radial compressor blade.
Fig. 1. Fuzzy stressrandom strength interference model.
problem is to find out the fuzzy parameters Aj j 1; ; 2n
2. Fuzzy linear regression which are the solution of the following linear programming
problem:
In the classical linear regression analysis, the deviations
min J c1 1 c2 1 1 c2n
between the real values and the estimated values are caused X X
by the observation errors, or by the specification errors. s:t: aj uji 2 1 2 H cj uuji u # yi
According to Tanaka, these deviations between the real j j 4
values and the computed values depend on the fuzziness X X
aj uji 1 1 2 H cj uuji u $ yi
of the system structure, or in other words, the fuzziness of j j
the system parameters. It is reflected in a fuzzy linear
regression model that the regression coefficients of the
regression function are fuzzy members. In this paper, a
series of stress values and its related elements values 3. Fuzzy reliability model
obtained from the finite element analysis are chosen as the
Similar to the stressstrength interference model, in this
data examples; and these data examples are used to get the
paper, we introduce the fuzzy stressrandom strength inter-
regression function between the fuzzy stress S~ and its related
ference model, the stress is modeled as a fuzzy variable with
elements X x1 ; x2 ; ; xn by the fuzzy linear regression
given membership function mS~ x; and the strength is
method.
modeled as a random variable with given distribution func-
When the relationship between the dependent variable Y
tion fd x: An overlap will exist between the curves where
and independent variable X is not linear but complicated, the
failure may occur due to the possibility of strength d being
so-called compound multiple linear regression analysis ~ Fig. 1 shows the region of unreliability.
less than stress S:
method [13], can be used to solve the problem. Let ~ it is a
The failure state of the structure is defined by d , S;
U u1 ; u2 ; ; un ; un11 ; ; u2n x1 ; ; xn ; x21 ; ; x2n : 1 fuzzy event, so according to the definition of the Zadehs
fuzzy probability, the failure probability of the structure is
Similar to the classical linear regression method, a fuzzy calculated by the following function:
linear regression is given by Z
y A1 u1 1 A2 u2 1 1 A2n u2n 2 F~ mS~ xfd x dx: 5

in the fuzzy linear regression, the regression coefficient Aj is The fuzzy reliability is then given as follows:
a fuzzy member. Generally, Aj is defined as triangular fuzzy Z
member A(a,c), and its membership function is as follows: R~ 1 2 F~ 1 2 mS~ xfd x dx: 6
8
>
< 1 2 uz 2 au ; a 2 c # z # a 1 c In the fuzzy linear regression analysis, the structure stress
mA z c 3
>
: is a triangular member, so the membership function of fuzzy
0; otherwise stress S~ can be obtained from Eq. (3)
8
where a is the center value of the fuzzy regression >
< 1 2 ux 2 mu ; m 2 n # x # m 1 n
coefficient A, and c c . 0 is the width or tolerance of A. mS~ x n 7
The most suitable fuzzy linear function for the given data >
:
0; otherwise
P the sum of the widths ci is the minimum,
is the one in which
denoted by J ci : The degree of fitting h which ranges where m is the center value of the fuzzy stress S~ and n the
between 0 and 1 is an index which indicates that the obser- ~
tolerance of S:
vation y is contained by fuzzy estimation with more than H When the distribution of the strength follows a normal
degrees, and h minmA yi ; i 1; ; N (all data). So the distribution, its probability density function can be defined
 Li Bing et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 67 (2000) 311315 313

Table 1 geometrical shape, so the compressor blade is divided into

The stress values obtained by FEM (MPa) 128 eight-node incompatible block elements as shown in
No. of nodes 5 7 128 154 Fig. 2. The boundary condition is as follows: the root
Von Mises stress 91.77 106.3 113.8 90.3 elements of the compressor blade are fixed in the y- and
z-direction, and the boundary elements are added to the
root elements in the x-direction; it makes the quality of all
as follows: the blades including the root elements contribute to the
"   # centrifugal stress. The blade is composed of cast aluminum
1 1 x 2 md 2 alloy, and the normal working rotational speed of the
fd x p exp 2 8
sd 2p 2 sd compressor is 55 000 rpm. The locations where the blade
is subjected to the maximum stresses are shown in Fig. 2.
where md is the mean value of the strength d and sd the No. 154 and No. 128 nodes are located on the pressure side
standard deviation of d: of the blade, and No. 5 and No. 7 nodes are located on the
When Eqs. (7) and (8) are substituted into Eq. (5), the suction side of the blade. Table 1 presents the stress values
failure probability of the structure can be described as of the nodes by the finite element analysis. The foregoing
follows: four nodes stress values of the compressor blade are
! !
m 1 n 2 m m 2 n 2 m obtained when the related elements of the stress are given
F~ F d
2F d
in mean values. The related elements set of the compressor
sd sd
blade stress is as follows:
! " !
2m m 2 md m m 1 n 2 md ^
X E; r; n; l
2 F 1 F
n sd n sd
!# where E is the Youngs modulus of the material, r the weight
m 2 n 2 md sd density of the material, n the rotational speed of the
1F 1 p compressor and l^ the equivalent thickness of the blade. A
sd 2pn
series of stress values can be obtained by changing the
( " # " #
m 1 n 2 md 2 m 2 n 2 md 2 values of its related elements via finite element analysis.
 exp 2 1 exp 2 These stress values and its related element values are used
2s2d 2s2d
as the data examples in the fuzzy linear regression analysis,
" #) " ! according to Eq. (1), U is defined as follows:
m 2 md 2 md m 2 md
2 2exp 2 1 2F
2s2d n sd ^ E2 ; r2 ; n2 ; l^2 :
U E; r; n; l;
! !#
m 1 n 2 md m 2 n 2 md According to the fuzzy linear regression method, the fuzzy
2F 2F (9) stress of the blade can be described as follows:
sd sd
S~ A1 u1 1 A2 u2 1 A3 u3 1 A4 u4 1 A5 u5 1 A6 u6 1 A7 u7
According to Eq. (6), the fuzzy reliability R~ can be obtained.
1 A 8 u8

4. Application
The radial compressor of a given turbocharger has 12
blades, where one of the 12 blades is used for the investi-
gation due to the axisymmetric structure of the impeller.
The incompatible block element can simulate an arbitrary
A1 E 1 A2 r 1 A3 n 1 A4 l^ 1 A5 E2 1 A6 r2 1 A7 n2 1 A8 l^2 :
10
When the mean values of E, r , n and l^ are substituted into
Eq. (10), the center value, tolerance and membership
function of the blade fuzzy stress can be obtained.

Table 2
The regression coefficients of the node stress regression function

No. of nodes Aj 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

5 aj 0.614 1.0 0.3 0.86 0.421 1.754 1.958 1.0

cj 0 0.422 0.213 0 0.523 0.56 0.32 0.2
7 aj 0.160 0.956 0.180 1.526 1.115 1.321 1.251 0.86
cj 0.221 0 0.101 0 0.678 0.174 0 0.203
128 aj 1.2 0.8 0.803 0.654 1.347 0.96 1.005 0.78
cj 0 0.512 0 0.343 0.854 0.26 0 0.2
154 aj 0.815 0.786 0.652 0.633 0.74 0.678 1.240 1.02
cj 0 0.24 0.2 0.362 0.398 0.415 0.105 0.1
314 Li Bing et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 67 (2000) 311315

Table 3 Table 5
The results of the fuzzy reliability of the blade The estimated fuzzy stresses of the No. 128 node relative to different rota-
tional speeds
No. of nodes 5 7 128 154
Fuzzy reliability 0.998830 0.998452 0.985185 0.999983 Rotational speed (rpm) S~128 (MPa)

50 000 (100.23, 32.17)

Applying the fuzzy linear regression method, we let fuzzy
threshold H be equal to 0.5, the regression coefficients
corresponding to the fuzzy stress regression function of
the No. 5, No. 7, No. 128 and No. 154 node, respectively,
are shown in Table 2. The detailed fuzzy reliability analysis
of the No. 128 node is presented. With reference to Table 2,
the fuzzy stress of the No. 128 node can be described as
follows:
S~128 1:2; 0E 1 0:8; 0:512r 1 0:803; 0n
1 0:654; 0:343l^ 1 1:347; 0:854E2
1 0:96; 0:26r2 1 1:005; 0n2 1 0:78; 0:2l^2 :
The estimated fuzzy stress value of S~ 128 can be obtained
when the mean values of E, r , n and l^ are given, i.e. S~ 128
121:35; 45:92 MPa; and then the membership function of
S~128 is as follows:
8 Let us discuss how the fuzzy threshold H affects the fuzzy
>
< 1 2 ux 2 121:35u ; 75:43 # x # 167:27
ms~128 x 45:92
>
:
0; otherwise
Similarly, the estimated fuzzy stress values of S~ 5 ; S~ 7 and
~S154 can be obtained, i.e. S~ 5 105:75; 41:95 MPa; S~ 7
111:77; 36:91 MPa; and S~ 154 94:35; 28:16 MPa: The
distribution of the material strength of the compressor
blade follows a normal distribution. From the material hand-
book, we get the mean value of the strength of the com-
pressor blade, md is equal to 179.17 MPa, and let the
standard deviation be equal to one-tenth of the mean
value, so the sd is equal to 17.917 MPa. From Eqs. (6)
and (9), the results of the fuzzy reliability of the dangerous
nodes of the blade are calculated as shown in Table 3. As
shown in Table 3, the fuzzy reliability of the maximum
stress node, No. 128 node, is equal to 0.985185. It shows
that the compressor blade is quite reliable.
We choose the No. 128 node as an example to discuss the
effect of the rotational speed of the compressor to the fuzzy
reliability of the compressor blade. The results shown in
Table 4
The stresses of the No. 128 node relative to different rotational speed
52 500 (111.72, 37.2)
55 000 (121.35, 45.92)
57 500 (129.61, 43.76)
60 000 (138.27, 41.16)
Table 4 are the different stress values of the blade relative
to different rotational speeds of the compressor. After a
series of stress analysis via FEM, the data examples for
the fuzzy linear regression are obtained. We let the fuzzy
threshold H be equal to 0.5, and get the different estimated
fuzzy stress values of S~ 128 shown in Table 5.
According to the different rotational speeds of the
compressor, the different results of fuzzy reliability of the
most dangerous nodeNo. 128 node, are shown in Table 6.
When the rotational speed of the compressor increases,
the stress of the blade increases, so the fuzzy reliability of
the blade decreases with the rotational speed of the
compressor.
reliability of the blade. We still choose the No. 128 node as
an example. When the rotational speed of compressor is
55 000 rpm, a series of stress values of the No. 128 node
obtained by FEM are taken as the data examples for the
fuzzy linear regression analysis. We let fuzzy threshold H
be equal to 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8 and 0.9,
respectively, and get the different estimated fuzzy stress
S~ 128 ; the results are shown in Table 7. According to the
fuzzy reliability analysis, the relevant fuzzy reliability
results of the No. 128 node are computed as shown in
Table 7.
When the fuzzy threshold H becomes larger, the interval
of confidence of the fuzzy stress of the blade will become
smaller, so the fuzzy reliability of the blade becomes lager.
From the results shown in Table 7, the fuzzy threshold H
should be taken more than 0.5, and then the results of
the fuzzy reliability of the blade will be relatively reasonable.
The above information provides an analysis of fuzzy
reliability of the compressor blade, and the idea can be
applied to the other potential problem areas.
Table 6
The fuzzy reliability of the No. 128 node relative to different rotational
speeds

Rotational speed (rpm) Stress (MPa) Rotational speed (rpm) Fuzzy reliability

50 000 94.01 50 000 0.999991

52 500 103.68 52 500 0.999844
55 000 113.8 55 000 0.985185
57 500 124.37 575 500 0.960186
60 000 135.42 60 000 0.899886
 Li Bing et al. / Reliability Engineering and System Safety 67 (2000) 311315 315

Table 7 Xiaowei and Mr Ke Pengbo for their useful comments and

The fuzzy stress and fuzzy reliability of the No. 128 node relative to help.
different thresholds

Fuzzy threshold H Fuzzy stress (MPa) Fuzzy reliability

0.1 (121.63, 90.14) 0.638324

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Acknowledgements

The authors express their sincere appreciation to Dr Chen