3/19/2017 HowtosurviveanuclearblastBusinessInsider

Ifanuclearbombisdroppedonyourcity,
here'swhereyoushouldrunandhide
DAVEMOSHERANDANDYKIERSZ
21H

Shutterstock

Peoplewhosurviveanuclearblastmaybeexposedtoradioactiveashanddustcalledfallout.
Findingagoodshelterassoonaspossibleandgoinginsideiscriticaltosurvivingfallout.
Ascientisthascomeupwithastrategyforwhenandwhethertomovetoabetterfallout
shelter.

PresidentTrumphaseggedonanewarmsrace.Russiaviolatedweaponstreatiestoupgradeitsnucleararsenal.
NorthKoreaisdevelopinglongrangemissilesandpracticingfornuclearwarandtheUSmilitaryis
consideringpreemptiveattacksontheisolatednation'smilitaryfacilities.

Meanwhile,nuclearterrorismanddirtybombsremainasoberingthreat.

Thoughtheseeventsareunlikelytotriggerthelastditchoptionofnuclearwar,letaloneablastinyour
neighborhood,theyareveryconcerning.

Soyoumightbewondering,"IfIsurviveanuclearbombattack,whatshouldIdo?"

MichaelDillon,aLawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratoryresearcher,crunchedthenumbersandhelpedfigure
outjustthatina2014studypublishedinthejournalProceedingsoftheRoyalSocietyA:Mathematicaland
PhysicalSciences.

Likewise,governmentagenciesandotherorganizationshavealsoexploredtheharrowingquestionandcameup
withdetailedrecommendationsandresponseplans.

Thescenario

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3/19/2017 HowtosurviveanuclearblastBusinessInsider

Youareinalargecitythathasjust
beensubjectedtoasingle,lowyield
nucleardetonation,between0.1and
10kilotons.

Thisismuchlesspowerfulthanthe
bombdroppedonHiroshima
about15kilotons.However,it'snot
unlikelywhenlookingatweapons
likethenewB6112gravitybomb,
whichisbuiltbytheUS,maxesoutat
50kilotons,andcanbedialeddown
to0.3kilotons.(RussiaandPakistan
areworkingonsimilarsocalled
"tactical"nuclearweapons.)
TTstudio/Shutterstock
Studieshaveshownthatyouandup
to100,000ofyourfellowcitizenscan
besavedthatis,ifyoukeepyour
witsaboutandradiationexposurelowenough.

Oneofyourbiggestandmostimmediategoalsistoavoidnuclearfallout.

Howtoavoidfalloutradiation
Falloutisamessofbombmaterial,soil,anddebristhatisvaporized,maderadioactive,andsprinkledasdustand
ashacrossthelandscapebyprevailingwinds.(InNewYorkCity,forexample,afalloutzonewouldspread
eastward.)

FEMA

Thebestthingtodoistofindagoodplacetohidethemoredensematerialbetweenyouandtheoutsideworld,
thebetterthenwaituntiltherescuerscanmaketheirwaytohelpyou.

TheUSgovernmentrecommendshidinginanearbybuilding,butnotallofthemprovidemuchshelterfrom
nuclearfallout.

Poorshelters,whichincludeabout20%ofhouses,areconstructedoflightweightmaterialsandlackbasements.
Thebestsheltersarethickbrickorconcreteandlackwindows.Likeabombshelter.

Thisinfographicfromagovernmentguidetotheaftermathofnuclearattacksgivesaroughideaonwhatmakesa
buildingagoodorbadplacetohidefromfallout:

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3/19/2017 HowtosurviveanuclearblastBusinessInsider

Levelsofprotectionfromradiationthatvariousbuildingsandlocationsoffer.

LawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratory/FEMA

Hidinginthesubbasementofabrickfivestoryapartmentbuilding,forexample,shouldexposeyoutojust
1/200oftheamountoffalloutradiationoutside.

Meanwhile,hangingoutinthelivingroomofyouronestory,woodframehousewillonlycutdowntheradiation
byhalf,whichifyouarenexttoanuclearexplosionwillnotdomuchtohelpyou.

So,whatdoyoudoifthereisn'tagoodshelterrightnearyou?Shouldyoustayina"poor"shelter,orrisk
exposuretofindabetterone?Andhowlongshouldyouwait?

Shouldyoustayorshouldyougo?
Inhis2014study,Dillondevelopedmodelstodetermineyourbestoptions.Whiletheanswerdependsonhowfar
awayyouarefromtheblast,sincethatwilldeterminewhenthefalloutarrives,therearesomegeneralrulesto
follow.

Ifyouareimmediatelynexttoorinasolidshelterwhenthebombgoesoff,staythereuntiltherescuerscometo
evacuateyoutolessradioactivevistas.

Ifyouaren'talreadyinabombshelter,butknowagoodshelterisaboutfiveminutesawaymaybealarge
apartmentbuildingwithabasementthatyoucanseeafewblocksawayhiscalculationssuggesthoofingitover
therequicklyandstayinginplace.

Butifthenice,thickwalledbuildingwouldtakeabout15minutestraveltime,it'sbettertoholeupintheflimsy
shelterforawhilebutyoushouldprobablyleaveforabettershelterafterroughlyanhour(andmaybepickup
somebeersandsodasontheway:Astudyinthe'50sfoundtheytastefineafterablast).

Thisisbecausesomeofthemostintensefalloutradiationhassubsidedbythen,thoughyoustillwanttoreduce
yourexposure.
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3/19/2017 HowtosurviveanuclearblastBusinessInsider

M.B.Dillon/ProceedingsoftheRoyalSocietyA:MathematicalandPhysical
Sciences

Otherfalloutadvice
BelowaresomeotherguidelinesthatDilloncompiledfromotherstudiesandarebasedonhowdecentyourfirst
andsecondsheltersare:

M.B.Dillon/ProceedingsoftheRoyalSocietyA:MathematicalandPhysicalSciences

Oneofthebigadvantagesoftheapproachthatthispaperusesisthat,todecideonastrategy,evacuationofficials
needtoconsideronlytheradiationlevelsnearsheltersandalongevacuationroutestheoverallpatternofthe
radioactivedeathclouddoesnotfactorintothemodels.Thismeansdecisionscanbemadequicklyandwithout
muchcommunicationorcentralorganization(whichmaybespareintheminutesandhoursafterablast).

Otherresearchershaveanalyzedothersimilarscenariosinpapers,whosefindingsaresummarizedinthechart
below:

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3/19/2017 HowtosurviveanuclearblastBusinessInsider

M.B.Dillon/ProceedingsoftheRoyalSocietyA:MathematicalandPhysicalSciences

JenniferWelshwroteapreviousversionofthispostwithAndyKiersz.

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