Law Enforcement

Assessment of the
Violent Extremism
Threat
Charles Kurzman and David Schanzer
June 25, 2015
 About the Authors

Charles Kurzman is a professor of sociology at the University of North Carolina at

Chapel Hill.

David Schanzer is director of the Triangle Center on Terrorism and Homeland

Security and Associate Professor of the Practice, Sanford School of Public Policy,
Duke University.

Contact information

Charles Kurzman: kurzman@unc.edu, 919-962-1007.

David Schanzer: schanzer@duke.edu, 919-357-0128.

The survey data in this working paper (Tables 1-5) were derived from a
survey that is part of a larger, on-going project. This project was supported
by Award No. 2012-ZA-BX-0002, awarded by the National Institute of
Justice, Office of Justice Programs, U.S. Department of Justice. The
opinions, findings, and conclusions or recommendations expressed in this
publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect those of
the Department of Justice.

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Law Enforcement Assessment of the Violent Extremist
Threat

Key Findings & Methods:

Law enforcement agencies in the United States consider anti-government violent
extremists, not radicalized Muslims, to be the most severe threat of political violence
that they face.
They perceive violent extremism to be a much more severe threat nationally than the
threat of violent extremism in their own jurisdictions.
And a large majority of law enforcement agencies rank the threat of all forms of violent
extremism in their own jurisdictions as moderate or lower (3 or less on a 1-5 scale).

These findings emerge from a survey we conducted with the Police Executive Research
Forum in 2014, with funding from the National Institute of Justice. The sampling frame
was all 480 state, county, and municipal law enforcement agencies with more than 200
sworn officers, plus 63 additional county and municipal agencies with 200 or fewer
sworn officers in selected jurisdictions that experienced an incident or prosecution for
violent extremism in recent years. The survey yielded responses from 339 of the larger
agencies (a 71 percent response rate) and 43 of the smaller agencies (a 68 percent
response rate), for a total of 382 law enforcement agencies (a 70 percent response rate),
including 35 state agencies, 141 county agencies, and 206 municipal agencies, whose
combined jurisdictions cover 86 percent of the U.S. population.

Primary Terrorist Threat

Of these 382 law enforcement agencies, 74 percent reported anti-government
extremism as one of the top three terrorist threats in their jurisdiction; 39 percent listed
extremism connected with al Qaeda or like-minded terrorist organizations.
Environmental extremism was identified as a top threat by a third of the agencies.

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 Table 1. What are the main violent extremist threats that your agency faces? Please
check up to three items below.
Percent
Anti-government violent extremism 73.8
Al-Qaeda inspired violent extremism 39.3
Environmental violent extremism 33.0
Racist violent extremism 24.3
Anti-capitalist violent extremism 14.7
Not applicable 13.6
Other violent extremism 10.5
No response 2.9

Perception of National Terrorism Threat

Of the 382 agencies, 26 percent said they believed the national threat posed by al-Qaeda
inspired extremists was severe, while 29 percent said they believed other forms of
extremism posed a severe threat in the United States as a whole.

The survey defined "Al-Qaeda inspired violent extremism" as violent extremism inspired
by the radical Islamist ideas advocated by al-Qaeda and other like-minded extremist
groups. The Fort Hood shooter (Nidal Hassan), the Flight 253 underwear bomber (Umar
Farouk Abdulmutallab), deceased cleric Anwar al-Awlaki, the suspected Boston
Marathon bombers (Dzohokhar and Tamerlin Tsarnaev), and the Times Square bomber
(Faisal Shazad) are all examples of al-Qaeda inspired violent extremists. The survey
defined "other violent extremism" as violent extremism motivated by any other political,
social, or religious concerns, including, but not limited to, anti-government, racist,
radical, environmentalist, or anti-capitalist views. Oklahoma City bomber Timothy
McVeigh, the Unabomber (Ted Kaczynski), and the Sikh temple shooter, Wade Michael
Page, are examples of other violent extremists. As shown in Table 1, respondents
identified anti-government violent extremism as the most prevalent form of other
violent extremist threats.

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 Table 2. On a scale from 1 to 5 (5=Severe Threat, 1=No Threat), please rate how severe
your agency believes the threat of violent extremism is in the United States as a whole,
for the following forms of extremism:

Al-Qaeda inspired Other

Level of threat violent extremism violent extremism
(Percent) (Percent)
1=No threat 2.4 1.6
2 6.3 2.9
3 27.2 20.4
4 38.2 46.3
5=Severe threat 25.9 28.8
No response 0.0 0.0

Perception of Local Terrorism Threat

Within their own jurisdictions, however, far fewer rated violent extremism as a severe
threat: only 3 percent of these departments identified the threat from Muslim extremists
as severe, compared with 7 percent for anti-government and other forms of extremism.
Table 3. On a scale from 1 to 5 (5=Severe Threat, 1=No Threat), please rate how severe
your agency believes the threat of violent extremism is within your jurisdiction, for the
following forms of extremism:

Al-Qaeda inspired Other

Level of threat violent extremism violent extremism
(Percent) (Percent)
1=No threat 16.8 11.3
2 38.2 17.0
3 27.0 37.4
4 14.7 27.8
5=Severe threat 3.4 6.5
No response 0.0 0.0

The mean national level of threat reported was 3.8 on this five-point scale for al-Qaeda
inspired violent extremism and 4.0 for other forms of violent extremism. Within their own
jurisdiction, the mean level of threat was 2.5 for al-Qaeda inspired violent extremism and
3.0 for other forms of violent extremism, a difference that is statistically significant at
the .01 level. Only 5 percent of the jurisdictions surveyed reported that al-Qaeda inspired
terrorism was a greater threat than other forms of terrorism, whereas 45 percent of
the jurisdictions surveyed assigned other forms as terrorism as posing the greater
threat.
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Comparing Threat Assessments of Large Cities, Mid-Size Cities, and Small
Cities/Rural Areas
Assessments of threat on a national scale were consistent among law enforcement
agencies of all sizes. In this report, we aggregate data separately for county and
municipal agencies of different sizes: those serving populations of less than 200,000;
those serving populations of 200,000 to 1,000,000; those serving populations over
1,000,000; and state agencies. The mean threat assessment for al-Qaeda inspired
violent extremism in the United States as a whole varied only by one tenth of one point
across the different size agencies; similarly, the assessment for other forms of violent
extremism varied only by two tenths of one point.

Table 4. Mean National Threat Assessments by Size of Law Enforcement Agency

County and municipal agencies

Serving Serving Serving
All 200,000 - over State
under
agencies 1,000,000 1,000,000 agencies
200,000
population population population
Number of
382 143 169 35 35
respondents
Mean level of threat in the United States as a whole:
Al-Qaeda
inspired
3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.8
violent
extremism
Other violent
4.0 3.9 4.0 4.0 4.1
extremism

However, threat assessments within the agencys own jurisdiction varied more widely:
Agencies serving rural areas and small cities reported a lower threat from violent
extremism than agencies serving mid-sized cities, which reported a lower threat than
big-city and state agencies. Within each category of agency, the mean level of threat
was rated lower for al-Qaeda inspired extremism than for other forms of violent
extremism. Within each category, this difference was statistically significant at a .01
level.

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 Table 5. Mean Local Threat Assessments by Size of Law Enforcement Agency

County and municipal agencies

Serving Serving Serving
All 200,000 - over State
under
agencies 1,000,000 1,000,000 agencies
200,000
population population population
Number of
382 143 169 35 35
respondents
Mean level of threat within your jurisdiction:
Al-Qaeda
inspired
2.5 2.2 2.6 3.1 2.8
violent
extremism
Other violent
3.0 2.6 3.2 3.5 3.4
extremism

Incidence of Ideologically Motivated Violence in the United States

These threat assessments match the relative rates of violence from Muslim extremists
and right-wing extremists an umbrella category in the scholarly literature on
extremism that incorporates anti-government and racist violent extremism. Definitions of
ideologically motivated violence differ widely, but right-wing violence appears
consistently greater than violence by Muslim extremists in the United States since 9/11,
according to multiple definitions in multiple datasets.

According to data compiled by Charles Kurzman,1 an average of nine Muslim-Americans

per year have been involved in an average of six terrorism-related plots against targets in
the United States (updated for this report through June 22, 2015). Most of these plots
were disrupted, but the plots that were carried out accounted for 50 fatalities, or an
average of four fatalities per year. Kurzmans report focuses on individuals accused of
crimes associated with an ideologically motivated violent plot or killed during incidents
of violence that were reported to be based on ideological motivations.

1Charles Kurzman, Terrorism Cases Involving Muslim-Americans, Triangle Center on Terrorism and Homeland
Security, February 9, 2015, http://kurzman.unc.edu/muslim-american-terrorism.
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 Table 6. Incidents of Muslim Extremism Toward Targets in the United States: Kurzman Data

Muslim Extremists
Source: Kurzman (2015)
Plots
Year Individual
(including
Suspects/ Attacks Fatalities
thwarted
Perpetrators
plots)
2001* 1 1 0 0
2002 6 4 3 19
2003 6 4 0 0
2004 4 2 0 0
2005 6 3 0 0
2006 10 5 2 1
2007 10 7 3 5
2008 1 1 0 0
2009 19 7 2 14
2010 12 9 2 0
2011 15 13 1 0
2012 7 6 1 0
2013 6 5 1 4
2014 6 6 4 7
2015* 19 11 2 0
Total 129 85 21 50
Average per year 9 6 2 4
*Data for 2001 counts arrests or incidents after September 11, 2001; data for 2015 counts arrests or
incidents through June 22, 2015.

In contrast, there were 337 incidents of right-wing violence each year in the decade after
9/11, causing a total of 254 fatalities, according to a study by Professor Arie Perliger at
the U.S. Military Academys Combating Terrorism Center. 2 Perligers data, compiled from
terrorism and hate crime datasets, as well as news reports, includes violent attacks
that: (1) were perpetrated by groups or individuals affiliated with far-right associations;
and/or (2) were intended to promote ideas compatible with far-right ideology. The toll
has increased since the study was released in 2012.

Another report by the Anti-Defamation League, using a more restrictive definition of

right-wing extremist violence that focuses only on premeditated plots or acts by right
wing extremist individuals or groups that rise to the level of attempted or actual
domestic terrorism, presents a select list of 34 attacks and 38 fatalities between

2AriePerliger, Challengers from the Sidelines: Understanding Americas Violent Far-Right, Combating
Terrorism Center, U.S. Military Academy, November 2012, pp. 87, 100,
https://www.ctc.usma.edu/posts/challengers-from-the-sidelines-understanding-americas-violent-far-right.
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9/11 and the end of 2014.3 This report is not a comprehensive list of all rightwing
violence. Many murders, including unplanned or spontaneous acts of violence, are not
included here, nor are thousands of lesser incidents of violence. Such a compilation
would be booklength.
Other datasets, using different definitions of political violence, tell comparable stories.
The Global Terrorism Database maintained by the START Center at the University of
Maryland includes 65 attacks in the United States associated with right-wing ideologies
and 24 attacks by Muslims since 9/11, although right-wing attacks resulted in slightly
fewer fatalities (17 as against 24).4 The Global Terrorism Database includes incidents of
non-state violence that meet one of three criteria: Criterion I: The act must be aimed at
attaining a political, economic, religious, or social goal. Criterion II: There must be
evidence of an intention to coerce, intimidate, or convey some other message to a larger
audience (or audiences) than the immediate victims. Criterion III: The action must be
outside the context of legitimate warfare activities.

3
Anti-Defamation League, Terrorist Conspiracies, Plots and Attacks by Right-wing Extremists, 1995-2015, March
25, 2015, http://www.adl.org/combating-hate/domestic-extremism-terrorism/c/right-wing-extremist-attacks-
1995-2015.html.
4Global Terrorism Database, START Center, University of Maryland, http://www.start.umd.edu/gtd, downloaded

June 4, 2015. After a review of all of the incident descriptions and notes in the dataset, right-wing ideologies
were identified by the keywords abortion, Ku Klux Klan, Minutemen, Nazi, White, Supremacist,
Antigovernment, Pro-Life, Hate, Gun, Anti-IRS, and by targets including Reproductive, Health,
Mosque, Obama, Liberal, Holocaust, and Sikh. Islamic ideologies were identified by the keywords
Muslim, Arab, Taliban, Islam, Allah, Osama, Nidal, Palestinan, and by targets including Israel
and Marathon.
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Table 7. Incidents of Right-Wing Extremism Toward Targets in the United States:
Perliger and Anti-Defamation League Data

Right-Wing Extremists Right-Wing Extremists

Source: Perliger (2012) Source: Anti-Defamation League (2015)
Plots
Year
(including
Attacks Fatalities Attacks Fatalities
thwarted
plots)
2001* -- -- 1 1 1
2002 95 44 4 0 0
2003 170 10 6 1 2
2004 330 17 6 3 1
2005 180 10 2 0 0
2006 220 18 1 1 2
2007 475 43 4 2 0
2008 560 33 6 3 4
2009 460 32 4 4 6
2010 410 17 8 6 1
2011 475 30 8 4 6
2012* -- -- 8 4 8
2013* -- -- 8 2 2
2014* -- -- 6 3 5
Total 3,375 254 72 34 38
Average
337 25 5 3 3
per year
*Perligers report does not break out annual incidents by month and day, so the totals for 2001 cannot be
divided pre- and post-September 11; the report covers incidents through 2011.

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 Table 8. Incidents of Muslim, Right-Wing, and Other Terrorism in the United States:
Global Terrorism Database

Source: Global Terrorism Database, START Center, University of Maryland

Other/unknown
Year Islamic ideologies Right-wing ideologies
ideologies
Attacks Fatalities Attacks Fatalities Attacks Fatalities
2001 0 0 1 2 14 5
2002 3 4 18 0 13 0
2003 1 0 5 0 26 0
2004 0 0 2 0 7 0
2005 1 0 4 0 19 0
2006 1 1 1 0 3 0
2007 0 0 3 0 6 0
2008 1 0 10 2 8 0
2009 3 14 4 4 4 0
2010 6 0 2 2 9 2
2011 0 0 2 0 7 0
2012 3 0 10 7 3 0
2013 4 5 3 0 8 2
2014* -- -- -- -- -- --
2015* -- -- -- -- -- --
Total 24 24 65 17 127 9
Average
2 2 5 1 10 1
per year
*The current version of the Global Terrorism Database covers incidents through 2013.

The International Security Program at the New America Foundation identifies 39

fatalities from non-jihadist homegrown extremists and 26 fatalities from jihadist
extremists, although it counts more jihadist than non-jihadist individuals charged
with violent extremist activity (269 as against 182).5 The New America Foundations
definition focuses on individuals charged or credibly reported to be involved in violent
extremist activity.

5International Security Program, Homegrown Extremism, 2001-2015, New America Foundation,

http://securitydata.newamerica.net/extremists/analysis.html, downloaded June 4, 2015.
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Conclusions
Police Do Not See Terrorism as a Severe Threat Locally
Local police agencies see violent extremism as a much greater problem nationally than
they do in their own jurisdiction. The national threat perception is probably driven by
media coverage and interactions with federal authorities. Yet, when asked about what
they know best, their own jurisdiction, law enforcement agencies report that terrorism is
a much less severe threat. This applies equally to different types of terrorism the police
perception of the national threat is much higher than their perception of the local threat.
Police Believe that al-Qaeda Inspired Terrorism Is Less of a Threat than Other Forms of
Terrorism
Local law enforcement agencies see the threat of terrorism inspired by al-Qaeda and
like-minded terrorist organizations as less of a threat than other forms of violent
extremism, principally anti-government extremism. It is worth noting that this data was
collected in early 2014, before the self-proclaimed Islamic State (also known as ISIS)
began actively recruiting Americans. However, in follow-up telephone interviews over the
past year, after ISIS stepped up recruitment, the officers we spoke with did not modify
their initial responses in light of the new threat. Moreover, as we have demonstrated,
police perceptions appear to correlate closely with incident data, which has not changed
significantly despite the increase in ISIS recruitment activities in the past year.
Rural Agencies Perceive a Lower Terrorist Threat than Agencies in Mid-Size and Large
Cities
It is not surprising that small cities and rural areas believe the terrorism threat is lower
than big cities in light of the 9/11 attacks and the Boston marathon bombing. However,
it is noteworthy that these trends apply to both al-Qaeda inspired and anti-government
terrorism. Right-wing terrorism is often seen as being more prevalent in rural areas, yet
law enforcement agencies in large cities report a higher threat from anti-government
extremism than agencies in small cities and rural areas.

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