Thursday, July 29, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

EUR/USD: (1.3012) New recovery high on move above 1.2454 has met last target at 1.3032.

FOREX EUR=EBS,39 (1.3012, 1.3016, 1.3010, 1.3012, -0.0001)

HOURLY CHARTS 1.3047 1.310
1.305
1.300
1.295
1.290
1.285
1.280
1.275
1.2723 1.2732 1.270
1.265
1.260
1.255
1.250
1.245
1.240
1.235
1.230
1.225
1.220
1.215
1.210
1.205
1.200
1.195
1.190
1.1876 1.185
1.180
2 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July
New recovery high on move above 1.2454 (neckline hourly Head&Shoulders bottom) has met last target of pat-
tern (1.3032).
Currently back above channel off 1.1876 (see graph).
Support area at 1.2979 (daily Short Term Moving Average↑), with next levels at 1.2952/ .2946 (reaction low
hourly/ daily envelope bottom), ahead of 1.2934/ .2912 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom / break-up
hourly) and 1.2900/ .2877 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↑/ current week low): ideal area to stay above to
keep current short term mood intact on €.
Resistance at 1.3047 (current recovery high off year low), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3075/ .3080 (61.8% March high to year low/ daily envelope top), ahead of 1.3095 (May
10 high + modified daily Alpha Beta trend top) and 1.3120/ .3124 (daily Bollinger top/ 38.2% 2009 high to
1.1876): tough on 1st tests, amid overextended readings.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE
1.2980 (daily ST MA↑) 1.3047 (see above)
1.2952/ .2946 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) 1.3075/ .3080 (see above/ daily envelope top)
1.3095/ .3124 (May 10 high + see above/ daily Bollin-
1.2934/ .2900 (see above/ daily MT MA↑)
ger top + see above)
KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Thursday, July 29, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

USD/JPY: (87.16) New year low but currently back in channel off 94.99 (see graph)
FOREX JPY=EBS,39 (87.23, 87.24, 87.17, 87.17, -0.07)
92.89
93.0

92.5

92.0

91.5

91.0

90.5

90.0

89.5
89.15

89.0

88.5

88.0
88.11
87.5

87.0
86.96
86.5

86.27
86.0

2 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

New year low scored on move below daily Uptrendline off 2009 low (90.63 today) but currently back in channel
off 94.99 (see graph).
Resistance at 87.62/ .72 (daily Bollinger midline/ reaction high hourly), with next levels at 87.93/ 88.12 (daily en-
velope top/ current week high + modified daily Alpha Beta trend top), ahead of 88.29 (reaction high hourly) and
.88.32/ 88.37 (23.6% 94.99 to 86.27/ weekly envelope top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 88.60 (daily Downtrendline off 94.99), ahead of 88.88/ 88.99 (daily Bollinger top/ daily
Starc top): tough on 1st attempts.

1st support area at 87.04/ 87.00 (break-up hourly/ daily envelope bottom), ahead of 86.82/ 86.73 (current week
low/ reaction low hourly), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 86.34/ 86.27 (July 22 low + daily Bollinger bottom/ year low): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

87.04/ .00 (see above/ daily envelope bottom) 87.62/ .72 (daily Bollinger midline/ see above)

86.82/ 86.73 (current week low/ reaction low hourly) 87.93/ 88.12 (daily envelope top/ current week high)
86.34/ 86.27 (July 22 low + daily Bollinger bottom/ year
88.29/ 88.37 (see above/ weekly envelope top)
low)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Thursday, July 29, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

EUR/GBP: (.8331) Rebound off new year low tested channel top off .8810 (see graph)
FOREX EURGBP=,22 (0.8331, 0.8333, 0.8328, 0.8330, -0.0001)
.8532

0.850

0.845

.8382 0.840

0.835

.8318
.8317 0.830
.8313

0.825

.8210 0.820

0.815

0.810

.8067 0.805

3 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

Rebound off new year low broke daily channel off .9130 (broken top at .8275 today), with drop having retested
.8317 area (see graph: neckline short term Head & Shoulders top).

1st Support area at .8325/ .8313 (daily Long Term Moving Average↑/ current week low + modified daily Standard
Error band bottom), with next levels at .8301/ .8299 (weekly envelope bottom/ 50% .8067 to .8532), where pause
favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8280/ .8270 (daily envelope bottom/ modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom): tough on
1st attempts.
1st Resistance area at .8350 (daily Short Term Moving Average↓), with next levels at .8367/ .76 (daily envelope
top/ daily Bollinger midline), ahead of .8391 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↓) and .8412/ .8416 (weekly
Medium Term Moving Average↓/ current week high), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8444 (reaction high hourly), ahead of .8466 (idem) and .8485/ .8492 (daily Bollinger top/
weekly envelope top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

.8325/ .8313 (daily LT MA↑/ current week low) .8350 (daily ST MA↓)

.8301/ .8299 (weekly envelope bottom/ see above) .8367/ .8376 (daily envelope top/ daily Bollinger midline)

.8280/ .8270 (daily envelope bottom/ see above) .8391/ .8416 (daily MT MA↓/ current week high)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Thursday, July 29, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

EUR/JPY: (113.45) Retesting 113.43 area (see graph)
FOREX EURJPY=EBS (113.47, 113.50, 113.42, 113.44, -0.06)
115.0
114.74
114.5

114.0

113.43
113.5

113.0

112.5

112.0

111.5

110.90 111.0

110.5

110.0

109.5

109.0

108.5

108.0

108.06 107.5

107.30 107.0

1 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

Pair currently retesting 113.43 (see graph: June 21 high + neckline daily Double bottom) and retested 114.40
(May 21 high): Resistance at 113.85 (breakdown hourly), with next levels at 114.40 (daily Bollinger top) and
114.74 (current recovery high off year low + daily envelope top + modified daily Alpha Beta trend top), where
pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 114.84/ .95 (23.6% 139.26 to 107.30 + daily projection band top/ weekly envelope top)
and 115.18/ .38 (38.2% 127.95 to 107.30/ modified daily Standard Error band top): tough on 1st attempts

1st Support area at 113.40/ .20 (daily Short Term Moving Average↑/ today’s low?), ahead of 112.92 (reaction low

hourly + daily envelope bottom), where pause favored.

If wrong, next levels at 112.74 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↑), ahead of 112.52/ .21 (modified daily Alpha

Beta trend bottom/ current week low): tough on 1st tests.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

113.40/ .20 (daily ST MA↑/ see above) 113.85 (see above) /)

114.40 (daily Bollinger top) see above/ see above +
112.92 (see above + daily envelope bottom)
weekly envelope top)
114.74/ .84 (see above + daily envelope top/ 23.6%
112.74/ 112.21 (daily MT MA↑/ current week low)
139.26 to 107.30)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Thursday, July 29, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Forex

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KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5