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MANUFACTURING:
A NEW ERA OF OPPORTUNITY
AND CHALLENGE FOR THE UK
SUMMARY REPORT
THIS REPORT SHOULD BE CITED AS:
Foresight (2013). The Future of Manufacturing:
A new era of opportunity and challenge for the UK
Summary Report
The Government Office for Science, London
For further information about the Project, and for the detailed
Project Report on which this Summary Report is based, please visit:
http://www.bis.gov.uk/foresight
THE FUTURE OF
MANUFACTURING:
A NEW ERA OF OPPORTUNITY
AND CHALLENGE FOR THE UK
SUMMARY REPORT
and public private partnerships such as the Energy In summary, manufacturing is too important to leave to
Technologies Institute, these are much smaller than in its own devices. The Lead Expert Group for this project,
competitor nations. Addressing this mismatch should be comprising Academic and Industry leaders commend
a priority. this Report to Government, together with its associated
analysis and evidence underpinning its conclusions.
Recent years have seen a resurgence in the
development of industrial policies by governments
in the UK and overseas. In the UK, industrial policies
have been developed in 11 sectors, led in most cases
by groups from the public and private sectors, with
many of these encompassing manufacturing industries.
One specific development has been the creation of
the Catapult Centres. In particular, the High Value
Manufacturing Catapult provides a strong base on
which to build substantial further effort. It is
recommended that its funding is substantially increased,
and used in part to encourage the greater involvement
of smaller firms in particular.
Sir Richard Lapthorne
Whilst specific initiatives are essential in areas Chair, Project Lead Expert Group
mentioned above, more is needed. Recognition that the
UK's national infrastructure suffered from fragmented
policy making led to the creation of Infrastructure UK
(IUK). Manufacturing suffers from similar challenges
and is no less strategic for the future strength and
resilience of the UK economy. The Lead Expert Group
of this Foresight Project considers that a similar office
to the IUK is needed for Manufacturing. This would be
responsible for helping Government to formulate long-
term policies that would take into account the extended
value chain associated with manufacturing industries.
PREFACE
It is surely unique in Europe, if not globally, for There are many UK manufacturing firms that
a Government to commission a strategic look at are world class. Indeed, manufacturing leads
the future of manufacturing as far ahead as 2050. other sectors in many areas, including productivity,
exports and research and development. There
This report involving some 300 leading is no room for complacency, however.
business people, experts and policy makers from
25 countries sets out a vision of manufacturing The analysis and advice contained in this report
that is very different to what we recognise today. will help Government to take its support for
Clearly, both industry and Government need to manufacturing to another level. My officials will
prepare for what will be considerable opportunities be working with the project experts to work
and challenges ahead. out next steps. I look forward to seeing how their
conclusions help Government and industry to
The importance of manufacturing to the UK harness the full potential of UK manufacturing.
economy, as set out here, is incontrovertible.
Manufacturing is no longer just about production,
it is a much wider set of activities that create
value for the UK and benefits for wider society.
Manufacturing includes significant innovation. It
creates jobs that are both highly skilled and well
paid. It also contributes to the rebalancing of the
economy, with its strong role on exports and
import substitutions.
CONTENTS
PROJECT
BACKGROUND
PROJECT AIM Professor Sir John Beddington and, since April 2013,
Sir Mark Walport.The Rt. Hon.Vince Cable MP,
This has been to take a long term and strategic look
the Secretary of State for Business, Innovation and
at manufacturing out to 2050, to:
Skills, has sponsored the project and chaired an
Identify and analyse important drivers of change Industry High Level Stakeholder Group (Annex C)
affecting the UK manufacturing sector; which provided strategic advice.The Project has based
Identify important challenges and opportunities its analysis on the very best evidence.Throughout,
that lie ahead and which require action by it has been overseen by a multi-disciplinary Lead
Government and industry; and Expert Group (Annex D) drawn from business and
academia, chaired by Sir Richard Lapthorne, Chairman
A
dvise how Government policy needs to be of Cable & Wireless Communications plc. In addition,
refocussed and rebalanced so that it is better it has involved some 300 industry and academic
positioned to support the growth and resilience experts, business leaders and stakeholders, from 25
of UK manufacturing over coming decades. countries.They have contributed to 37 peer-reviewed
In so doing, a specific aim is to inform further technical evidence papers and provided a wide
development of the Governments industrial range of insights and advice.Valuable international
and sector strategies. perspectives were provided at workshops held
in Asia, Europe and the US.
WHO HAS BEEN INVOLVED:
The 2-year Project has been run by the Foresight The Project Report, on which this Summary Report
Programme in the UK Government Office for is based, and all supporting material is available at:
Science, under the personal direction of the www.bis.gov.uk/foresight
Government Chief Scientific Adviser: formerly
The future of manufacturing: A new era of opportunity and challenge for the UK 11
John Martin
Senior Vice President Manufacturing, Purchasing & Supply Chain Management
Nissan Motor Co. Ltd.
12 1. Manufacturing matters
1. MANUFACTURING
MATTERS
UK manufacturing performance has been weak MVA SHARE OF TOTAL GDP (%)
keyareas: 35
The
level of investment in capital equipment has 20
T
he UKs share of global manufacturing exports 10
has fallen from 7.2% in 1980 to 2.9% in 201217. 5
T
he fall in the UKs share of goods exports has
been accompanied by an increase in export
intensity (manufacturing exports as a proportion
of manufacturing output), which rose from about
30% in 1991 to around 47% in 2011; which is
similar to France and higher than the US19.
Terry Scuoler
Chief Executive, EEF
16 1. Manufacturing matters
Product
Research & Supplier Route to After sales
& service Production Consumption Disposal
development management market service
development
Note: Within this value chain some elements are repeated many times, for example as components come together to build a complex product.
There are also feedback loops which may vary for different sub-sectors.
The application of leading-edge technical knowledge and expertise for the creation of products, production
processes and associated services, which have strong potential to bring sustainable growth and high economic
value to the UK. Activities may stretch from R&D at one end to recycling at the other (Technology Strategy
Board, 2012)23.
The world is in the midst of a paradigm shift in the 21st century one that integrates diverse sets of ideas,
products and services globally through the lens of highly complex, integrated and self-morphing resource
webs Highly talented skilled people are necessary to effectively and consistently apply cutting edge science
and technology, systems thinking, smart services and processes, and supply chain excellence (Deloitte, 2013)24.
The future of manufacturing: A new era of opportunity and challenge for the UK 17
Figure 3: Manufacturers offering services, 2007 & 2011 (100 or more employees)
% PERCENT
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
2007
10% 2011
Malaysia
Netherlands
Belgium
Norway
Germany
Hong Kong
Bermuda
Sweden
Switzerland
Taiwan
Cayman Islands
Spain
UK
Greece
Australia
South Africa
Denmark
Thailand
France
Indonesia
Austria
Japan
China
TO CUSTOMERS
common as factories reduce their environmental
impacts28. The factory of the future may be at the
bedside, in the home, in the field, in the office and
on the battlefield.
WHAT ARE THE LIKELY CHANGES?
Digitised manufacturing value chains: Pervasive
Technology will play a central role in driving computing, advanced software and sensor
change.Some of the value being created in technologies have much further to go in
2050 willderive from wholly unanticipated transforming value chains. They will improve
breakthroughsbut many of the technologies customer relationship management, process control,
thatwill transform manufacturing, such as additive product verification, logistics, product traceability
manufacturing , are already established or clearly and safety systems. They will enable greater design
emerging. Table 1 summarises some of the most freedom through the uses of simulation, and they
important pervasive and secondary technologies will create new ways to bring customers into design
including ICT, sensors, advanced materials and and suppliers into complex production processes.
robotics. When integrated into future products
and networks, these will collectively facilitate
fundamental shifts in how products are designed,
made, offered andultimatelyused by consumers.
Looking to the future, we
recognise that transformational change is
Mass personalisation of low-cost products, required and emerging technologies present
on demand:The historic split between cheap mass- an opportunity to create a paradigm shift,
produced products creating value from economies allowing us to manufacture medicines faster,
of scale and more expensive customisedproducts
will be reduced across awiderange of product types. greener and at a lower cost. Manufacturing
Technologies such as additive manufacturing, new has become increasingly critical in the
materials, computer-controlled tools, biotechnology, pharmaceutical sector and will require
and green chemistry will enable wholly new forms more agility to respond to patient needs,
ofpersonalisation. Direct customer input to design
more flexibility to bring production closer to
willincreasingly enable companies to produce
customised products with the shorter cycle-times customers, as well as increases in efficiency
andlower costs associated with standardisation and and sustainability. This will underpin
mass production.The producer and the customer high quality standards and ensure new
will share in the new value created. For example, medicines are affordable for patients around
research at the University of Loughborough shows
that customers might be prepared to pay an
the world. The prize is significant and it is
additional 10% for some degree of personalisation27. imperative that industry and Government
Customisation is a significant opportunity for UK work togetherto seize this opportunity
manufacturers targetingboth the domestic market and securea leading position for the UK.
and other developed economies.
Table 1: Important pervasive and secondary technologies for future manufacturing activities
Information and Modelling and simulation integrated into all design processes, together with virtual reality tools will allow
communications complex products and processes to be assessed and optimised, with analysis of new data streams.
technology (ICT)
Sensors The integration of sensors into networks of technology, such as products connected to the internet, will revolutionise
manufacturing. New data streams from products will become available to support new services, enable self-checking
inventories and products which self diagnose faults before failure, and reduced energy usage.
Advanced & New materials, in which the UK has strong capabilities, will penetrate the mass market and will include reactive
functional materials nanoparticles, lightweight composites, self-healing materials, carbon nanotubes, biomaterials and intelligent
materials providing user feedback.
Biotechnology The range of biotechnology products is likely to increase, with greater use of fields of biology by industry.
There is potential for new disease treatment strategies, bedside manufacturing of personalised drugs,
personalised organ fabrication, wide availability of engineered leather and meat, and sustainable production
of fuel and chemicals.
Sustainable/green These will be used to reduce the resources used in production including energy and water, produce clean
technologies energy technologies, and deliver improved environmental performance of products. Minimising the use of
hazardous substances.
SECONDARY TECHNOLOGY
Big data and These will be important in the on-going automation of many tasks that formerly required people. In addition,
knowledge based the volume and detail of information captured by businesses and the rise of multimedia, social medial and the
automation internet of things will fuel future increases in data, allowing firms to understand customer preferences and
personalise products.
Internet of things There is potential for major impacts in terms of business optimisation, resource management, energy
minimisation, and remote healthcare. In factory and process environments, virtually everything is expected
to be connected via central networks. Increasingly, new products will have embedded sensors and become
autonomous.
Advanced and Advances are likely to make many routine manufacturing operations obsolete, including healthcare and
autonomous surgery, food preparation and cleaning activities. Autonomous and near-autonomous vehicles will boost
robotics the development of computer vision, sensors including radar and GPS, and remote control algorithms.
3D measurement and vision will be able to adapt to conditions, and track human gestures.
Additive This is expected to have a profound impact on the way manufacturers make almost any product. It will become
manufacturing an essential tool allowing designs to be optimised to reduce waste; products to be made as light as possible;
(also known as 3D inventories of spare parts to be reduced; greater flexibility in the location of manufacturing; products to be
printing) personalised to consumers; consumers to make some of their own products; and products to be made with
new graded composition and bespoke properties.
Cloud computing Computerised manufacturing execution systems (MES) will work increasingly in real time to enable the control
of multiple elements of the production process. Opportunities will be created for enhanced productivity, supply
chain management, resource and material planning and customer relationship management.
Mobile internet Smart phones and similar devices are positioned to become ubiquitous, general purpose tools for managing
supply chains, assets, maintenance and production. They will allow functions such as directed advertising, remote
healthcare and personalisation of products. Linked technologies include battery technology, low energy displays,
user interfaces, nano-miniaturisation of electronics, and plastic electronics.
22 2. Four key future characteristics of manufacturing and implications for Government
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR Greater leveraging of the UKs intellectual assets:
GOVERNMENT? The UKs education system has considerable strengths
relative to international competitors29. However it
Improving the speed and co-ordination of the
files fewer patents than countries such as US, Japan
technology pipeline for UK manufacturing: Given the
and Germany30.This suggests the UK is not leveraging
pace of change in technological developments and
its intellectual assets as much as it will need to in
international competition, the UK needs to strengthen
the future. For example, there needs to be a shift in
the extended system that identifies and supports new
the in balance of funding towards applied research
technologies and their applications.The UKs High Value
and in its commercialisation.There also needs to be
Manufacturing (HVM) Catapult Centre, established
increased effort to identify key areas (such as sensors
in 2011, has a key role in the near term, and is an
and additive manufacturing), to develop technology
example of a step that the Government has taken to
roadmaps, and to guide policy.
develop a more systemic approach across research,
innovation and industrial policy.
Protecting intellectual property, reducing counterfeiting
and avoiding cyber attacks: Digitisation increases the
Immediate priorities should be to scale up funding for
risks of objects being copied illegally.Technologies such
the HVM Catapult Centre, to promote much stronger
as additive manufacturing may make it even harder
involvement of small and medium enterprisesin the
to identify breaches29. However, the same trends
member centres, and to enhance the role it plays in
support innovation and new forms of value creation.
connecting academic expertise to industry. Longer
Todays regulatory and policy frameworks need to be
term, there is potential for the Centre to support
reappraised to ensure they achieve the best balance
international collaboration between manufacturers,
between openness and the rights and obligations
forexample by establishing a presence in key
of intellectual property ownership in this changing
emerging economies.
environment.They also need to consider what further
action needs to be taken to address the threat of
cyber-attack, which increasingly threatens information-
rich products and services.
24 2. Four key future characteristics of manufacturing and implications for Government
Emergence of BRIC economies and the Next-11: Continued global fragmentation of the value chain:
BRIC economies (Brazil, Russia, India and China) are Fragmentation includes the outsourcing of functions
likely to become larger than the US by 2015 and and offshoring. It is driven by factors such as the
the G7 by 2032. In addition, the N-11 economiesii costs and quality of labour and transport, security
are likely to become larger than the US and almost of provision, the opportunities created by trade
twice the size of the Euro area by 205031. By value, liberalisation; the availability of data and information;
UK is low down the global list of exporters to China and the integration of suppliers into product
(24th) and India (21st). The UK is the worlds 10th development processes. Many manufacturing value
largest goods exporter, with a 2.9% share of global chains are likely to continue to fragment, with the
manufacturing exports in 2012. However its share operation of supply chains playing a major role in
of imports to countries forecast to be in the top determining future changes38.
30 economies by 2050 is generally dissapointing
and below this level32. The UKs relatively poor
current placement in these markets will make it
harder for it to benefit from their future growth.
The international, 'industrial
Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Korea, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan,
ii
systems' view of manufacturing
Philippines, Turkey and Vietnam.
set out in this report points the way
Continued importance of US and Europe for UK to creating and capturing value in
manufacturing exports: The UK exported to 226 a dynamic global economy. Meeting
different countries or territories in 2010. The US the implied challenges will require
was the most important destination, accounting for
radical new approaches which
13% by value. In 2012, EU markets accounted for about
54% of total export value, with BRIC exports at 8%. cross traditional disciplinary and
institutional boundaries.
High-tech likely to remain an area of UK advantage:
At 4.7%, the UKs share of global high technology
manufacturing exports is relatively strong. Current Professor Sir Mike Gregory
high-tech sectoral strengths include pharmaceuticals, Head of the Institute for Manufacturing
aerospace, chemicals, and the automotive sector. University of Cambridge
The future of manufacturing: A new era of opportunity and challenge for the UK 25
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR Promoting co-location of R&D with production to
GOVERNMENT? maintain and build an industrial commonsiii Products
dependent on process-driven innovation, such as
Enabling UK manufacturers to control global value
some drugs, nano-materials and some electronics
chains: As manufacturing value chains continue to
applications benefit from the co-location of different
fragment globally, and new business models such as
parts of their production systems (Figure 5)48.
manufacturing services continue to develop, it will
Government has a major role to play, nationally
become increasingly important for manufacturers
and locally, in encouraging greater agglomeration
to create and operate value chains to maximise
and clustering of particular activities, including
revenues46. Government action in support of
encouraging co-location of production alongside
this needs to be agile and outward looking, and
research and development.
informed by a common view of developments
which draws upon intelligence from BIS, Research Industrial commons: The embedded knowledge and technology
iii
Councils and the Technology Strategy Board. framework that enhances the efficiency, effectiveness, and productivity
A recent example of such action is a funding of the proprietary capital and labour that use it.
competition launched by the Technology Strategy
Board this year; this supports feasibility studies Raising the UKs export performance, particularly to
into new business models which in turn promote emerging economies: Products win export markets
innovations in high value manufacturing47. when they deliver value, rarity, and possess hard-
to-imitate attributes49. Most exporting is done by
firms with relatively high levels of productivity, so
measures to raise this, for example by improving
high
PROCESS-EMBEDDED INNOVATION PURE PRODUCT INNOVATION
Process technologies, though mature, are still The processes are mature, and the
highly integral to product innovation. Subtle value of integrating product design
changes in process can alter the products with manufacturing is low. Outsourcing
Process maturity: the degree to which
low Modularity: the degree to which information about product design high
the quality of leadership and management, will be training and research programmes run by Sheffield
key. The role of UK Trade and Investment (UKTI) University51 and other universities.
will also continue to be important and should be
strengthened in markets offering the best potential Keeping the UK attractive to manufacturing FDI:
for export growth. This includes the provision of Three attributes that make the UK attractive to
advice and market-based intelligence to companies overseas investors include quality of life, culture
seeking to increase their exports or enter new and language; the stable political environment;
markets, and support to businesses once they and technology and infrastructure52. Priorities for
are operating in a market, for example in areas of attracting future FDI for manufacturing include the
language and culture. Beyond these measures, there provision of high quality e-infrastructure and physical
is a need to understand much better what prevents infrastructure (roads53, in particular).
the UK from having more exporting superstars
firms which export ten or more products to ten or Ensuring a supply of patient capital: UK capital
more destinations. markets are characterised by an arms-length
relationship between the providers and users of
Identifying phoenix industries emerging from finance. An emphasis on short term returns by
previous manufacturing activities: Established investors leads to management focus on short-
industrial regions typically possess important legacy term movements in stock market prices, and the
assets such as specialised engineering skills, pre- threat of takeover, with long term investment in
existing personal networks, technical skills, and new capital equipment, skills and training and R&D
market knowledge50. National and local policy- spend inhibited. These effects are damaging for
makers will need to develop new mechanisms manufacturing, which requires relatively high long
to identify and exploit these legacies to support term investment in terms of new capital equipment,
phoenix industries, such as small and medium- R&D and skills54. The institutional architecture which
sized firms specialising in the production of high encourages impatience in corporate governance and
value sophisticated components for equipment the capital market must be addressed to support
manufacturers. Success will depend on strong future UK manufacturing competitiveness.
local alliances, such as those behind specialised
28 2. Four key future characteristics of manufacturing and implications for Government
sustainability are frequently used in the Foresight work. The definition Greater use of regulation, potential pricing of
of sustainability adopted here is that described in the widely cited the environment: Regulation is likely to focus
Brundtland Report: development that meets the needs of the present increasingly on promoting resource productivity.
without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their
own needs.
For example, recent EU legislation aims to
divert electrical equipment waste away from
Volatility of supply: A growing global population landfill. Over the period to 2050, national and
and increased urbanisation (70% of the global international responses are likely to include tougher
population will live in urban areas in 2050)55 will environmental standards for products and new ways
increase demand for materials, water, energy to price natural resources and ecosystem services.
WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR Supporting business models based on reuse
GOVERNMENT? remanufacturing and services: Government
should work with industry and others, for
Incentivising product and process efficiency: Greater
example in the UK such as the Royal Society
use should be made of well designed regulation,
for the encouragement of Arts, Manufactures
in particular drawing upon ideas from abroad.
and Commerce (RSA) and the Ellen MacArthur
For example, effective energy reduction has been
Foundation66 to accelerate the development
demonstrated by innovative schemes such as Top-
and roll out of the circular economy. Lessons
Runner in Japan65 where future product standards
should also be drawn from overseas organisations
are set so that all products manufactured at a
such as the 2009 China Circular Economy
specific point in the future must be at least as good
Promotion Law.
as the best performance of today. The Government
should consider developing top-runner schemes in
Quantifying domestic reserves of critical materials:
the UK, for example relating to the energy usage of
It is essential that the UK makes the most of
factories, and also procurement and waste policies.
anydomestic supplies of key materials, where
economically viable, such as sources of indium,
Targeting R&D at improving resource efficiency
widely used in the production of LCD displays
and material substitution: The UK has world
andlow-melting temperature alloys.
class capabilities in key areas of research in novel
material design and development. Continued
support for fundamental research should be
complemented by programmes to develop
rapid recycling and recovery technologies, with
non-destructive removal of high value parts and
materials from complex end-of-life products.
RESOURCE
RECYCLED FACILITY
MATERIALS
DE S IG N FOR
MAT
E RI
AL
RE SOU RC E RE
S MAN CO
ERT AG E VE
EXP M EN RY
LS T
RIA
TE DE S IG N
MA FO R
RE-
US
EI
N
MA
PO
NU
LIC
F
YM
RS
FACTORY
AC
RE
AK
TU
TU
E
RE
RS
FAC
DE S
IG N
U
MAN
FO
R
SE
R
VI
CE
S
I N FLU E N C E RS
I NVE STORS
B R AN D S & C O
DE S I G
BRAND NF
OR
LO
M PA
N GE
V I TY
NIE
S
N
IO
AT
UC
PRODUCT
ED
CO
&
NS
S
IC
UM
ER M
& A DE
US AC
ER
S
CONSUMER
DE S I G N
An ageing population and the need to accommodate The potential for human enhancement: By 2050
more older workers: Over the period to 2050, patterns of employment will be influenced
the UK will have an ageing population, with the by new forms of human enhancement and
number of people aged 65 years and over (i.e. of augmented capabilities72. These may support mental
traditional retirement age) set to increase, while performance and physical mobility, and help counter
the numbers of traditional working age people are the effects of ageing.
set to decrease. By 2030, 17% of the UK population
will be aged between 60-74. There will be a number
of challenges in making manufacturing attractive
to older workers, particularly in sub-sectors with
the oldest age profiles including manufacturing of
machinery and fabricated metal products.
Table 2: Long term skill demands in selected manufacturing sub-sectors and technologies
Plastic and silicon Ability to bring new products to market and manage Testing, prototyping and
electronics the transition from producing prototypes to higher being able to implement
volume production new designs. Skills related
to using plastic electronics
New materials/ Skills related to the Scientists and technologists Technicians will need
composites commercialisation of new are required to develop new to acquire the skills
materials composites applicable to required to work with
sectors such as automotive new materials in their
and aerospace manufacture
Nanotechnology As a new embryonic technology there is a need for Higher level skilled
managers and professionals (especially scientists) across the technicians will be
manufacturing sector to identify how nanotechnologies can required in relation to
be incorporated in to products and processes the handling and use of
nanotechnologies
3. THREE SYSTEMIC
AREAS FOR FUTURE
GOVERNMENT FOCUS
These are incredibly exciting times for manufacturing in the UK. I am delighted
to be playing my part in this Foresight project and ensuring that manufacturing
continues to be a key growth engine in the nations economy for many years to come.
Nigel Stein
Chief Executive, GKN plc
40 4. Conclusions
4. CONCLUSIONS
ANNEXES
The future of manufacturing: A new era of opportunity and challenge for the UK 43
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Evidence Paper 1: Foresight & Arup The Future of Manufacturing International Perspectives Workshop.
Evidence Paper 2: Broadberry, S. & Leunig, T. The Impact of Government Policies on UK Manufacturing since 1945.
Evidence Paper 3: Bryson, J.R. Clark, J. and Mulhall, R. The Competitiveness and Evolving Geography of British Manufacturing:
Where is manufacturing tied locally and how might this change?
Evidence Paper 4: Chang, H. Andreoni, A. & Kuan, M. International Industrial Policy experiences and the Lessons for the UK.
Evidence Paper 5: Deakin, S. The Legal Framework Governing Business Firms and its Implications for Manufacturing Scale and
Performance: The UK Experience in International Perspective.
Evidence Paper 6: Dickens, P. Kelly, M. & Williams, J. What are the significant trends shaping technology relevant to manufacturing.
Evidence Paper 7: Driffield, N. How attractive is the UK for future foreign direct investment?
Evidence Paper 8: Driver, C. & Temple, P. Capital investment: what are the main long term trends in relation to UK manufacturing
businesses, and how do these compare internationally?
Evidence Paper 9: Fothergill, S. & Gore, T. The Implications for employment of the shift to high value manufacturing.
Evidence Paper 10: Grant, P. & Mason, T. What impact will the development and, potentially, the commercialisation of new and advanced
materials have on the future of manufacturing activities in the UK?
Evidence Paper 11: Green, R. & Zhang, X. What will be the future role of energy (including supply, distribution and security) in
manufacturing activities?
Evidence Paper 12: Hall, B. What role will the protection of intellectual property play in the future?
Evidence Paper 13: Hancke, B. & Coulter, S. The German Manufacturing sector Unpacked: policies and future trajectories.
Evidence Paper 14: Hay, G., Beaven, R., Robins, I., Stevens, J. & Sobina, K. What are the recent macro-economic trends and what
do they tell us about the future?
Evidence Paper 15: Homkes, R. What role will leadership play in the future performance of manufacturing businesses?
Evidence Paper 16: Hughes, A. International Short-Termism, Impatient Capital and Finance for Manufacturing Innovation in the UK.
Evidence Paper 17: Kneller, R. What are the constraints on potential UK exporters?
Evidence Paper 18: Li, C. & Bascavusoglu-Moreau, E. Knowledge spillovers in manufacturing firms and future sources of knowledge
for innovation.
Evidence Paper 19: Livesey, F. What is the public image of manufacturing and how might this change?
The future of manufacturing: A new era of opportunity and challenge for the UK 49
Evidence Paper 20: Luger, M., Gil, N. & Winch, G. What areas of infrastructure are important for the UKs future competitiveness
in manufacturing activities?
Evidence Paper 21: McLaughlin, P. What kind of system will encourage best practice principles in UK manufacturing activities?
Evidence Paper 22: McNair, S., Flynn, M., Myerson, J., Gheerawo, R., Ramster, G. & Hamlyn, H. What are the supply (workforce) and
demand (product) implications of an ageing society?
Evidence Paper 23: Moffat, J. What are the recent micro-economic trends and what do they tell us about the future?
Evidence Paper 24: Morton, B., Paget, G. & Mena, C. What role does Government procurement play in manufacturing in the UK and
internationally, and how this might change in the future?
Evidence Paper 25: Peng, M. & Meyer, K. Where are the future markets for manufacturing output?
Evidence Paper 26: OSullivan, E. & Mitchell, N. What are the key international approaches to understanding the future of manufacturing?
Evidence Paper 27: Parker, D., Arendoft, A., Chapman, A. & Thompson, P. What impact will the availability of materials and resources
in the future have on the future manufacturing outlook in the UK?
Evidence Paper 28: Pike, A., Dawley, S. & Tomaney, J. How does manufacturing contribute to UK resilience?
Evidence Paper 29: Ridgway, K., Clegg, C. & Williams, D. What are the main trends shaping the factory of the future?
Evidence Paper 30: Rowthorn, R. & Coutts, K. Update of Prospects for the UK Balance of Payments.
Evidence Paper 31: Rowthorn, R. & Coutts, K. De-industrialisation and the Balance of Payments in Advanced Economies.
Evidence Paper 33: Spring, M. Which business models might ensure UK value from emerging sectors?
Evidence Paper 34: Stehrer, R. What will be the future role of BRIC countries in providing global manufacturing output?
Evidence Paper 35: Tennant, M. What are the business opportunities presented by the drive for sustainability?
Evidence Paper 36: Wilson, R. & Hogarth, T. What type of future manufacturing workforce will the UK need?
Evidence Paper 37: Crafts, N. & Hughes, A. Industrial policy for the medium-long term.
All of these evidence papers and the Project Report are available on www.bis.gov.uk/foresight
50 Industry High Level Stakeholder Group members
The Rt. Hon. Vince Cable MP (Chair) Secretary of State, Department for Business Innovation and Skills
Prof. Sir John Beddington Former Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Government Office for Science
Jeremy Bentham Vice President, Global Business Environment, Royal Dutch Shell
Professor David Delpy Chief Executive, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council
Mark Elborne President and CEO, General Electric Company UK & Ireland
Mark Florman Chief Executive Officer, British Private Equity & Venture Capital Association
Philip Greenish Chief Executive, The Royal Academy of Engineering
John Martin Senior Vice President, Manufacturing & Supply Chain, Nissan Motor Company
Janice Munday Director of Advanced Manufacturing Services, Department for Business, Innovation and Skills
Professor John Perkins Chief Scientific Adviser, Department for Business, Innovation and Skills
Jeremy Pocklington Director, Enterprise and Growth, HM Treasury
Rachel Sandby-Thomas Director General, Business & Skills Group, Department for Business, Innovation and Skills
Sir Mark Walport Government Chief Scientific Adviser, Government Office for Science
Nigel Whitehead Group Manufacturing Director, Programmes and Support, BAE Systems plc
52 Lead Expert Group members
Sir Richard Lapthorne CBE [Chair] Chairman of Cable & Wireless Communications Plc
Professor Nicholas Crafts Professor of Economic History and Director of the ESRC Research Centre
on Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy at the University of Warwick
Professor Steve Evans Director of Research in Industrial Sustainability, Institute for Manufacturing,
University of Cambridge
Professor Anne Green Professorial Fellow, Institute for Employment Research, University of Warwick
Professor Richard Harris Professor of Economics and Head of Economics, Finance and Accounting,
Durham University Business School
Professor Alan Hughes Director of the UK Innovation Research Centre and Margaret Thatcher Professor
of Enterprise Studies (Emeritus) at the Judge Business School, University of Cambridge
Professor Chris Lowe OBE Director of the Institute of Biotechnology, University of Cambridge
Professor Sir Michael Sterling Chairman of the Science and Technology Facilities Council
SUMMARY REPORT
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recycled fibre content minimum.
First published October 2013
The Government Office for Science
URN 13/810
Crown copyright