6.

City-Wide Flood Mitigation Strategy

Recommendation:
That the June 9, 2017, Sustainable Development report CR_4408, be received for
information.

Report Summary
This report summarizes the findings of work to date on the City-Wide Flood
Mitigation Strategy, and identifies high-level risk mitigation and investment
scenarios affecting 160 residential neighbourhoods.
Report
Background
Edmontons drainage system has evolved over time as design standards have been
revised in response to changing community values and changing environmental
conditions. The citys pre-1960s drainage network is based on a combined system
where a single pipe conveys both stormwater and sanitary flows. Overflows from the
combined system to the river created unacceptable environmental conditions and
spurred a change in standards such that storm and sanitary flows were separated and
conveyed in separate pipes beginning in the 1960s. As separated piped systems still
had capacity limitations, the City introduced overland flows as an additional means of
conveyance and wet and dry ponds to retain stormwater beginning in the late 1980s.
From 1990 onward, the City adopted the current stormwater management approach
whereby pipes form the minor system and overland flows and ponds form the major
system. This evolution of the drainage system by way of changing design standards
has resulted in differing infrastructure and differing levels of service throughout the
city.

A severe storm event in 2004 significantly impacted the Mill Woods area and caused
the City to undertake a number of drainage improvements in affected areas. Another
severe storm event in 2012 again significantly impacted Mill Woods and portions of
southwest and south-central Edmonton. The impacts of these two events included on-
street flooding and basement flooding in approximately 4000 and 1200 residential
properties for 2004 and 2012, respectively. Ongoing drainage infrastructure
improvements, including the installation of stormwater retention facilities in these
areas, have substantially reduced basement flooding stemming from subsequent
storm events.

City-wide Flood Mitigation Study

In 2013, Administration initiated a proactive, city-wide, risk-based engineering study for
areas of the city without major stormwater management systems in support of a flood

ROUTING - Utility Committee | DELEGATION - P. Ohm/T. Wyman

June 9, 2017 Sustainable Development CR_4408
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City-Wide Flood Mitigation

mitigation strategy. The study characterized the existing drainage systems in these
areas, assessed additional weather-related data to better understand the probability of
severe storm events, and investigated engineering options to provide higher service
levels for over 160 residential and 33 industrial neighbourhoods in the case of severe
storm events. The work to date has largely focused on identifying high level risk
mitigation and investment scenarios, and related public engagement. A strategy that
sets out a framework for the prioritization and sequencing of mitigation actions will be
delivered in 2018 after the utility and work is assumed by EPCOR.

Attachment 1 depicts the residential and industrial neighbourhoods without major

stormwater systems gathered into five groups or basins. The basins are sized so as to
be comparable to the area of Mill Woods - approximately 15 to 20 square kilometers.
The initial flood maps released in November 2016 illustrate flooding in the event of a
1:100 (one in one hundred) year storm event covering these relatively large areas - an
event that is now understood to be a worst-case scenario in the Edmonton experience.

A 1:100 year event is an event that has a 1% chance of occurring in any given year.
However, this yearly probability does not necessarily reflect an events relative
frequency from year to year as evidenced by the storm events that occurred in
Edmonton in 2004 and 2012 - both exceeding the 1:100 year severity rating.

The concept of a 1:100 year event has its origins in riverine flooding - the probability of
heavy rainfall and/or snowmelt causing a river/creek/waterbody to breach its banks
and inundate adjacent floodplains. Record keeping of river levels in Edmonton has
occurred for over 100 years and is fairly robust.

Urban flooding is the inundation of a built environment caused by rainfall

overwhelming the capacity of drainage system, such as the minor (piped) system. As
Edmontons drainage system evolved, the concept of a 1:100 year storm event
became the theoretical design standard for urban flooding in Edmonton as it is for
other cities across North America. However, the characteristics of a 1:100 year storm
are contextual, and in Edmontons case are based on rainfall data collected in
Edmonton. Record keeping for rainfall (that causes urban flooding) in Edmonton has
occurred for much less than 100 years and was formerly based on limited collection
points (rain gauges) across the city.

As part of the work for the city-wide study, recent and more robust rainfall data was
analyzed to better understand the characteristics of storm events in Edmonton. In the
past, storms have been understood by their intensity, duration, and frequency.
Supporting analysis included rainfall data from 1984 to 2010 and included the spatial
aspect of storms to show that the current 1:100 year event has become the 1:50 year
event, and that severe storms tend to be smaller in area. In other words, a storm that
had a 1% chance of occurring in any given year, is now considered to have a 2%
chance of occurring in any given year - twice the probability as previously understood.
Correspondingly, the 1:200 year storm has now become the 1:100 year storm.

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City-Wide Flood Mitigation

Analysis also showed that severe storm events (in excess of the new 1:100 year) tend
to be over smaller areas (~5 square kilometers) rather than larger areas
(15 to 20 square kilometers). In fact, 1:100 year storm events over 15 to 20 square
kilometers have never been observed in Edmonton.

From this work, Administration developed four event types or drainage service level
scenarios upon which to base engineering solutions, flood tolerance, investment and
schedules. The first scenario developed was the worst case relative to maximum
mitigation and highest investment. Additional scenarios were then identified based on
reduced levels of risk mitigation and reduced investment. Together the scenarios
present a continuum of risk mitigation and investment from most to least conservative.
The four scenarios and their respective engineering mitigation approaches are
depicted in Attachments 2 through 5 and are differentiated by two variables - 1:50 year
versus 1:100 years storm events; and small (~5 square kilometers) versus large
(15 to 20 square kilometers) storms.

The constant variable in the scenarios depicted in Attachments 2 and 3 is the size of
storms being 15 to 20 square kilometers. The variable differentiating the two scenarios
is the probability of the storm being the new 1:100 year versus the new 1:50 year
storms. Similarly, the constant variable in the scenarios depicted in Attachments 4 and
5 is the size of the storm, being approximately 5 square kilometers; and the
differentiating variable being the probability of the storm.

The maps associated with Attachments 2 to 5 then show the infrastructure necessary
to mitigate for the combination of the two variables - storm size and storm probability.
The infrastructure identified among the four scenarios is purposely intended to be
incremental and scalable in that the infrastructure improvements in Attachment 5 can
be added to, to arrive at the improvements identified in Attachment 4, and so on to
Attachment 2. The infrastructure contemplated in the scenarios includes tunnels,
shafts, combined sewer separation, swales, road regrading and stormwater retention
facilities.

The table below identifies the components and high level investment for the four
scenarios.

Scenario Storm Size Storm Probability High Level Predicted

Investment (2017$)

One 15-20 sq km 1:100 year $4.7B

(attachment 2)

Two 15-20 sq km 1:50 year $3.5B

(attachment 3)

Three ~5 sq km 1:100 year $2.6B

(attachment 4)

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City-Wide Flood Mitigation

Four ~5 sq km 1:50 year $2.2B

(attachment 5)

At this point in time, Administration has identified scenario 3 as being the most
appropriate based on:
Edmonton would maintain the North American 1:100 year drainage design
standard
Edmonton has not experienced a storm event at the scale represented by
scenario 1
Pursuit of scenario 3 provides the City the ability to scale up with additional
incremental investment and provides an appropriate level of future proofing for
the potential impacts of climate change in a scenario between No 1 and No. 3.

Of note, scenario 3 closely resembles the parameters of the 2004 storm event.

Notwithstanding this perspective, Administration notes that public input on the

desirable/acceptable level of flood mitigation in combination with the required level of
investment is ongoing and is scheduled to continue into 2018. Administration also
notes that ongoing work on the flood mitigation strategy is being advanced as part of
the transitioning of this work to EPCOR.

Budget/Financial Implications
Administration has evaluated how these scenarios could be accomplished with two
distinct levels of investment. Current expenditure for flood mitigation projects is in the
range of $30 to $50 million per year.

Scenario High-level Number of years Number of years to

predicted to complete complete projects
investment projects ($120 million/year
requirements* ($60 million/year expenditure)
expenditure)
1 $4.68 billion 82 40
2 $3.45 billion 60 30
3 $2.55 billion 45 22
4 $2.20 billion 40 20
*2017 dollars.

In 2013, when the strategy was first initiated, Administration provided a high-level
estimate of $2.4 billion for the potential flood mitigation works to be implemented over
a 50-to-100-year timeframe. The rate impacts were deferred to the years following
completion of the existing flood mitigation programs, subject to feedback from Council
and alternate funding opportunities, such as grants.

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City-Wide Flood Mitigation

Ongoing work to refine expenditures and further analysis to understand the impact of
investment levels on Drainage Utility rates will be developed in concert with EPCOR
and presented to Utility Committee in early in 2018.

Next Steps
Administration proposes the next steps as follows:
Development of prioritization criteria on key parameters.
Development of an overall flood mitigation implementation schedule and work
plan based on prioritization outcomes.
Application for grants from other orders of government for individual projects to
accelerate the implementation schedule.
Assess rate impact on the drainage utility.

Policy

The Way We Live, Edmontons People Plan: - Flood protection in at-risk areas, thus
providing a safer and cleaner environment.
Strategic Objective 4.3.1: Delivers basic public health services in the areas of:
water quality, waste management, storm and sanitary drainage, housing
standards, fire rescue, noise pollution and disposal of human and animal
remains.

The Way We Grow, Edmontons Municipal Development Plan:

Strategic Objective 5.7.1: Ensure that streets, sidewalks and boulevards are
designed to perform their diverse roles and to enable safe access for all users.

The Way We Move, Edmontons Transportation Master Plan

Strategic Objective 7.5: The City will promote and undertake the safe planning,
design and operation of the transportation system.

Public Engagement
Administration has initiated a comprehensive public engagement plan to receive input
from residents on the study and to understand how the decisions being made might
potentially impact their quality of life. The plan includes a phased engagement
approach, with each phase based on the collection of specific input to help support the
project in moving forward, as well as to inform and build options for engagement in
subsequent phases.

The engagement plan can be read in its entirety in Attachment 6 and currently
consists of three phases, as outlined in the January 13, 2017, memo submitted to
Council (see Attachment 7). The results to date for the first two phases of the public
engagement are documented in Attachment 8.

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Administration only received the results of the Phase 2 engagement at the time of
writing this report and will have a better understanding of their meaning and impact as
work progresses.

Legal Implications
With the approval by Council of the transfer of the Drainage Utility to EPCOR, the
capital and operating costs associated with the strategy following the transfer would be
incurred by EPCOR and recoverable through drainage utility rates payable to EPCOR.

Metrics, Targets and Outcomes

See Attachment 9.

Attachments
1. Study Areas
2. Infrastructure Upgrades Scenario 1
3. Infrastructure Upgrades Scenario 2
4. Infrastructure Upgrades Scenario 3
5. Infrastructure Upgrades Scenario 4
6. Public Engagement Plan
7. Council Memo from January 13, 2017
8. City-Wide Flood Mitigation Study
9. Metrics, Targets and Outcomes

Others Reviewing this Report

T. Burge, Chief Financial Officer and Deputy City Manager, Financial and
Corporate Services
A. Laughlin, Deputy City Manager, Integrated Infrastructure Services
R. Smyth, Deputy City Manager, Citizen Services
C. Campbell, Deputy City Manager, Communications and Engagement
D. Jones, Deputy City Manager, City Operations

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