PROBABILITY AND COUNTING

YEAR QUESTION
2015 6.(a) Alicias chance of getting to school depends on the weather. The weather can be either
rainy or sunny. If it is a rainy day, the probability that she gets to school is 0.7. In
addition, she goes to school on 99% of the sunny school days. It is also known that 32%
of all school days are rainy.
(i) Construct a tree diagram to show the probabilities that Alicia arrives at school.
(ii) What is the probability that Alicia is at school on any given school day?
(iii) Given that Alicia is at school today, determine the probability that it is a rainy
day.
Paper 3B
3.(a) A board game involves TWO fair dice and ONE fair coin. The face shown on the coin
determines the action of the next player.

If a HEAD is observed on the coin, the total on the dice is as observed. If a TAIL is
observed on the coin, the number on each die must be 3 or less. If any of the numbers is
more than 3, the die is thrown again until a 1, 2 or 3 is shown.

(i) Copy and complete the table below to show the possible totals of the throws.

(ii) What is the probability that the sum of the numbers on the dice is EVEN on any
turn in the game?

(iii) Determine the probability of obtaining a HEAD and an EVEN total on the dice.

(iv) State, giving a reason for your answer, whether the events of obtaining a HEAD
and an EVEN total on the dice are independent.
2014 5(a)(i) Five teams are to meet at a round table. Each team consists of two members AND one
leader. How many seating arrangements are possible if each team sits together with
the leader of the team in the middle?

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 (ii) In an experiment, individuals were asked to colour a shape by selecting from two
available colours, red and blue. The individuals chose one colour, two colours or no
colour. In total, 80% of the individuals used colours and 600 individuals used no
colours.
(a) Given that 40% of the individuals used red and 50% used blue, calculate the
probability that an individual used BOTH colours.

(b) Determine the TOTAL number of individuals that participated in the experiment.
2013 5(b) Three letters from the word BRIDGE are selected one after the other without replacement.
When a letter is selected, it is classified as either a vowel (V) or a consonant (C).

Use a tree diagram to show the possible outcomes (vowel or consonant) of the THREE
selections. Show all probabilities on the diagram.

(c) A country, X, has three airports (A, B, C). The percentage of travellers that use each of the
airports is 45%, 30% and 25% respectively. Given that a traveller has a weapon in his/her
possession, the probability of being caught is, 0.7, 0.9 and 0.85 for airports A, B and C
respectively.

Let the event that:

The traveller is caught be denoted by D, and
The event that airport A, B, or C is used be denoted by A, B, and C respectively.

(i) What is the probability that a traveller using an airport in Country X is caught with a
weapon?
(ii) On a particular day, a traveller was caught carrying a weapon at an airport in
Country X. What is the probability that the traveller used airport C?

2012 5(a) How many 4-digit even numbers can be formed from the digits 1, 2,3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8
(i) if each digit appears at most once?
(ii) if there is no restriction on the number of times a digit may appeared?

(b) A committee of five is to be formed from among six Jamaicans, two Tobagonians and three
Guyanese.
(i) Find the probability that the committee consists entirely of Jamaicans.
(ii) Find the number of ways in which the committee can be formed, given the
following restriction: There are as many Tobagonians on the committee as there
are Guyanese.
2011
5(a) ( ) is defined as the number of ways of selecting distinct objects from a given set of

distinct objects. From the definition, show that
+1
(i) ( )=( )

+1
(ii) ( )=( )+( )
1
8 8 8 8
(iii) Hence, prove that [( ) + ( )] [( ) + ( )] is a perfect square.
6 5 3 2

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 (b)(i) Find the number of 5-digit numbers greater than 30 000 which can be formed with the
digits, 1, 2, 5, 6 and 8, if no digit is repeated.

(ii) What is the probability of one of the numbers chosen in (b)(i) being even?

2010 5(a) Calculate

(i) the number of different permutations of the 8 letters of the word SYLLABUS.
(ii) the number of different selections of 5 letters which can be made from the letters of
the word SYLLABUS.

(b) The events A and B are such that () = 0.4, () = 0.45 and ( ) = 0.68.
(i) Find ( ).
(ii) Stating a reason in each case, determine whether or not the events A and B are
(a) mutually exclusive
(b) Independent.

3(a) Find the number of integers between 300 and 1000 which can be formed by using the
digits 1, 3, 5, 7 and 9
(i) if NO digit can be repeated
(ii) if ANY digit can be repeated

(b) Find the probability that a number in (a)(ii) above ends with the digit 9.

2009 5(a) A committee of 4 persons is to be chosen from 8 persons, including Mr. Smith and his wife.
Mr Smith will not join the committee without his wife, but his wife will join the committee
without him. Calculate the number of ways in which the committee of 4 persons can be
formed.

(b) Two balls are drawn without replacement from a bag containing 12 balls numbered 1 to
12. Find the probability that
(i) the number on BOTH balls are even
(ii) the number on one ball is odd and the number on the other ball is even.

3(a) There are 6 staff members and 7 students on the sports council of a college. A committee
of 10 persons is to be selected to organize a tournament. Calculate the number of ways in
which the committee can be selected if the number of students must be greater than or
equal to the number of staff members.

(b) A and B are events such that () = 0.6, () = 0.2 ( ) = 0.1. Calculate
(i) ( )
(ii) ( )
(iii) the probability that exactly ONE of A and B will occur.
2008 3(b) The probability that a person selected at random
- Owns a car is 0.25
- Is self-employed is 0.40.
- Is self-employed OR owns a car is 0.6.
(i) Determine the probability that a person selected at random owns a car AND is self-
employed.

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 (ii) Stating a reason in EACH case, determine whether the events owns a car and is self-
employed are
(a) Independent events
(b) Mutually exclusive events.

5(a) A cricket selection committee of 4 members is to be chosen from 5 former batsmen and 3
former bowlers. In how many ways can this committee be selected so that the committee
includes AT LEAST
(i) ONE former batsman?
(ii) ONE batsman and ONE bowler?

TNT 5(a) Four-digit numbers are formed from the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9.

(i) How many 4-digit numbers can be formed if
(a) the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, can all be repeated?
(b) none of the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 9, can be repeated?
(ii) Calculate the probability that a 4-digit number in (a)(i)(b) above is even.

(b) A father and son practice shooting at basketball, and score when the ball hits the basket.
The son scores 75% of the time and the father scores 4 out of 7 tries. If EACH takes one shot at
the basket, calculate the probability that only ONE of them scores.

11(a) Determine the number of ways in which the letters of the word STATISTICS may be
arranged so that the vowels are placed together.
(b) A team of five is chosen at random from 4 boys and 6 girls. Calculate the number of
ways that this team can be chosen to include at least 3 girls.
2007 12. Two unbiased dice each with six faces are tossed randomly one after the other.
(a) Determine the set of possible outcomes.
(b) Find the probability that
(i) the product of the numbers on the two dice is a multiple of 5
(ii) the second die shows the number 2
(iii) the product of the numbers on the two dice is a multiple of 5 OR the second die
shows the number 2.

3.(a) Ten students, 8 girls and 2 boys, are to be seated in a row.

(i) determine the number of different ways these students can be arranged if there are
no restrictions.
(ii) Find the probability that the two boys DO NOT sit next to each other.
2006 11. A committee of 4 people is to be selected from a group consisting of 8 males and 4
females. Determine the number of ways in which the committee may be formed if it is to
contain
(a) NO females
(b) EXACTLY one female
(c) AT LEAST one female.

12.(a) The letters H, R, D, S and T are consonants. In how many ways can the letters of the
word HARDEST be arranged so that
(i) the first letter is a consonant?
(ii) the first and last letters are consonants?

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 (b) Find the probability that the event in (a)(i) above occurs.

5(a) (i) How many numbers lying between 3 000 and 6 000 can be formed from the digits,
1,2,3, 4, 5, 6, if no digit is used more than once in forming the number?
(ii) Determine the probability that a number in 5(a)(i) above is even.

(b) In an experiment, p is the probability of success and q is the probability of failure in a

single trial. For n trials, the probability of x successes and (n x) failures is
represented by nCx p x q n x , n 0. Apply this model to the following problem.

5
The probability that John will hit the target at a firing practice is . he fires 9 shots.
6
Calculate the probability that he will hit the target
(a) AT LEAST 8 times
(b) NO MORE than seven times.

3(a) A box contains 8 green balls and 6 red balls. Five balls are selected at random. Find the
probability that
(i) ALL 5 balls are green
(ii) EXACTLY 3 of the five balls are red
(iii) at LEAST ONE of the five balls is red

2005 11.(a) How many four-digit numbers can be formed from the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 if ALL digits can
P1 be repeated?
(b) Determine
(i) how many of the four-digit numbers in (a) above are even.
(ii) the probability that a four-digit number in (a) above is odd.

12. A fair coin is tossed three times.

(a) Determine the sample space.
(b) Calculate
(i) the probability that two heads and one tail appear
(ii) the probability that AT LEAST two heads appear.

2005 5(a) On a particular day, a certain fuel service station offered 100 customers who purchased
P2 premium or regular gasoline, a free check of the engine oil or brake fluid in their vehicles.
The services required by these customers were as follows:

15% of the customers purchased premium gasoline, the others purchased regular
gasoline.
21% of the customers who purchased premium gasoline requested a check for brake
fluid, the others requested a check for engine oil.
51% of the customers who purchased regular gasoline requested a check for engine oil,
the others requested a check for brake fluid.

(i) Copy and complete the diagram below to represent the event space.

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 Brake fluid Engine oil

Premium
gasoline

51 Regular
gasoline

(i) Find the probability that a customer chosen at random

(a) who had purchased premium gasoline requested a check for engine oil.
(b) who had requested a check of the brake fluid purchased regular gasoline.
(c) who had requested a check of the engine oil purchased regular gasoline.

(b) A bag contains 12 red balls, 8 blue balls and 4 white balls. Three balls are drawn from the
bag at random without replacement. Calculate
(i) the total number of ways of choosing the three balls.
(ii) the probability that ONE ball of EACH colour is drawn.
(ii) The probability that ALL THREE balls drawn are of the SAME colour.

2004 11. Calculate how many 4-digit numbers greater than 3000 can be formed using 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5
P1 as digits when
Spec (a) EACH digit is used ONLY once
(b) the repetition of EACH digit is allowed.

12. In a group of 14 persons there are 9 males and 5 females. A team of 7 persons is to be
selected to include 3 males and 4 females. In how many ways can the team be selected?

2004 5(a) Two cards are drawn without replacement from ten cards which are numbered 1 to 10.
P2 Find the probability that
Spec (i) the numbers on BOTH cards are even
(ii) the number on one card is odd and the number on the other is even.

(b) A journalist reporting on criminal cases classified 150 cases by age (in years) of the criminal
and by type of crime committed violent or non-violent. The information is presented in the
table below.

Type of Crime Age (in years)

Less than 20 20 to 39 40 or older
Violent 27 41 14
Non-violent 12 34 22

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 What is the probability that a case randomly selected by the journalist
(i) (a) is a violent crime?
(b) was committed by someone LESS than 40 years old?
(c) is a violent crime or was committed by a person LESS than 20 years old?
(d) is a violent crime that was committed by a person LESS than 20 years old?

(ii) Two criminal cases are randomly selected for review by a judge. What is the
probability that BOTH cases are violent crimes?

2004 11. A bag contains 2 red balls, 1 and 2, 1 green ball, G, and two black balls, 1 and 2 .
P1 Randomly, two balls are drawn together from the bag.
(a) Describe the sample space.
(b) Determine the probability that
(i) BOTH balls are the same colour
(ii) AT LEAST ONE ball is black.

12. Only three horses, A, B and C are in a race. The probability that A wins the race is twice the
probability that B wins. The probability that B wins the race is twice the probability that C
wins. Find the probability of winning for EACH of the horses.

3 2 1
13. Let A and B be the events such that ( ) = 4 , ( ) = 3 and ( ) = 4. Find:
(i) ()
(ii) ()
(iii) ( )

14.(a) Which ONE of the following situations describes a mutually exclusive event?
(i) Selecting either an even or a prime number from a set of real numbers.
(ii) Selecting either a negative integer or perfect square from the set of integers.
(iii) Selecting either a perfect square or an odd number from the numbers 1 to 100.

1 2
(b) The probability that A hits a target is and the probability that B hits the same target is .
4 5
The event that A hits the target is independent of the event that B hits the target. What is
the probability that both A and B hit the target?

15. A marksman shoots at a target and he either hits the target (H) or misses it (M). The
probability of H is 0.4. He shoots at the target 3 times. Determine
(a) the elements of the event A associated with the marksman hitting the target EXACTLY
twice.
(b) the probability that the marksman hits the target AT LEAST once.

2004 5(a) A message is sent using two symbols, and , arranged in sequence. The probability that
P2 1
the first symbol sent is , is 5. A tree diagram is started in the diagram below.

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 First symbol sent second symbol sent third symbol sent

Start
here

Copy the diagram in your answer booklet and use the information above to write the
correct probability on EACH branch of the tree diagram.

1
(b) After the first symbol has been sent, the probability that an is sent is 4 if the preceding
1
symbol was an and if the preceding symbol was a .
3
(i) Use this information to extend your diagram to represent the FIRST THREE symbols
sent.
(ii) Write CLEARLY the probabilities on EACH branch of your tree diagram.

(c) Using the information from your tree diagram, find the probability that
(i) there will be EXACTLY TWO among the FIRST THREE symbols sent.
(ii) the THREE symbols sent are identical.

3(a) In a sixth form, the students are studying one or more of the subjects, Biology (B),
Chemistry (C) and Mathematics (M). 15% of the students are studying both Chemistry and
Mathematics and 3% of them are studying all three subjects. Some of this information is
shown on the diagram below.

Mathematics (M) Biology (B)

45% 70%

Chemistry (C)
35%

(i) What is the probability that a student chosen at random is studying Chemistry?
(ii) Given that a student is studying Chemistry, what is the probability that the student
is also studying Mathematics?
(iii) Find the probability that a student who is studying Chemistry and Mathematics is
also studying Biology.

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 1 1
(b) A and B are two independent events such that () = 3 and ( ) = 4. Find
(i) ()
(ii) ( )

(c) A three-digit number is formed by choosing, with replacement, three digits at random from
the digits 1, 2, 3, 4, 5. What is the probability that the number formed is divisible by 5?

2003 11. A group of 40 football fans travelling to a match consists of 16 men, 12 women, 8 boys and
P1 4 girls. A person is chosen at random from the group to receive a free ticket for the match.
Find the probability that
(i) the person is a woman or a girl
(ii) the person is either a man, woman or a girl.

12. Three boys, Tom, Jake and James each independently bowls one ball at a wicket. Their
1 1 1
probabilities of hitting the wicket are 3 , 4 and 6 respectively. Find the probability that
(a) NO boy hits the wicket
(b) ONE AND ONLY ONE boy hit the wicket.

13. On a particular day, 20% of the car drivers purchase the daily morning paper on their way
to work. On returning home from work, 10% purchase the evening paper. It is known that
25% bought either a morning or an evening paper. Find the probability that a driver of a
car chosen at random on that day purchased
(a) BOTH a morning and an evening paper
(b) an evening paper, given that the driver purchased the morning paper.

1 7 5
14. Given that ( ) = 4 , ( ) = 8 and ( ) = 8, find
(a) ()
(b) ( )

2003 5.(a) A bag contains 5 red balls, 7 black balls and 4 white balls. Two balls are drawn at random
P2 without replacement.
(i) Draw a tree diagram to represent the different ways in which the balls can be drawn
from the bag, with branches showing the probabilities of drawing the red, black or
white ball.
(ii) Find the probability of drawing 2 balls of the SAME colour.
(iii) Find the probability of drawing 1 red and 1 black ball.

2002 11. Two fair dice are cast. The events A, B and C are described below.
P1 A: at least one even number has occurred.
B: both numbers showing are even.
C: the sum of the numbers showing is odd.

(a) Which one of the pair of events (A, B), (B, C) and (C, A) is mutually exclusive?
(b) Show that A and B are not independent.

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 12. A die is thrown five times. Find the probability that
(a) exactly one six shows
(b) at least one six shows
(c) no six nor five shows

2 1 1
13. A and B are two events such that ( ) = , ( ) = , () = . Calculate ().
3 6 3

14. A box contains 4 red balls and 3 white balls. Two balls are selected, without replacement,
at random. What is the probability that both balls selected are of the same colour?

15.(b) A class of students at a Caribbean University consists of students from three territories,
J, B and K. There are both male and female students from each territory. Describe the
sample space for this data.

2002 5.(a) A manufacturer of computers is supplied with a particular computer microchip, called MC-
P2 40, from three suppliers, Halls Electronics, Smith Sales, and Crawford Sales and Supplies. A
small batch of the chips supplied is defective. The information is summarized in the table
below.

Supplier of Microchip, MC-40 % supplied 5 Defective

Halls Electronics 30 3
Smith Sales 20 5
Crawford Sales and Supplies 50 4

When the MC-40 chips arrive at the manufacturer, they are carefully stored in a particular
container and not inspected, neither is the supplier identified.
(i) A worker is asked to select ONE chip from the container for installation in a
computer. Drawn an appropriate tree diagram to represent this selection process.
(ii) What is the probability that
(a) it was supplied by Halls Elecronics?
(b) it was not supplied by Crawford Sales and Supplies?
(c) it was supplied by Smith Sales and it was good?
(d) it was defective?
(e) it will work effectively in the computer?

(b) A biology examination includes 4 true or false questions. The probability of a student
1
guessing the correct answer to the first question is 2. Likewise, the probability of a student
1
guessing correctly each of the remaining questions is 2. Use the probability model
!
() = !()!
where is the number of questions
is the number of observed successes
is the probability of guessing correctly
is the probability of guessing incorrectly
to answer the questions below.

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 What is the probability of a student
(i) guessing at LEAST ONE of the four questions correctly?
(ii) Guessing EXACTLY ONE of the four questions correctly?

2001 11. Two cards are drawn without replacement from ten cards which are numbered 1 to 10.
P1 Find the probability that
(a) the numbers on both cards are even.
(b) the number on one card is odd and the number on the other card is even.

12. Events A and C are independent. Probabilities relating to events A, B and C are
1 1 1 3
() = 5 , () = 6 , ( ) = 20 and ( ) = 8.
(a) Evaluate ().
(b) Show that the events, B and C, are independent.

13. In a group of students, 10% are studying chemistry, 8% are studying mathematics and 2%
are studying chemistry and mathematics. Find the probability that
(a) a chemistry student is studying mathematics.
(b) a mathematics student is studying chemistry.

2001 5(a) A die numbered 1 to 6 is biased in such a way that a 6 is twice as likely as any other score.
P2 Find the probability that a six shows when the die is thrown.

(b) Three dice, two of which are biased as in 5(a) above and the other fair, are thrown.
(i) Drawn a tree diagram to represent the throwing of the three dice showing the
probabilities of sixes and not sixes.
(ii) Find the probability that exactly one 6 turns up.
(iii) Find the probability that when one 6 turns up it appears on the fair die.

2000 11(a) At a football match, there are four ticket offices and each can accommodate 75 people
P1 standing in line. An official observes the number of people standing in the lines at
random times. Determine the sample space for this experiment.

(b) One morning, there were 39 cars and 15 trucks lined up on a certain highway at a police
spot-check. What is the probability that the police will search a car and then a truck?

12(a) 3 beads are chosen at random, with replacement, from a box containing 4 red, 5 green
and 3 blue beads. What is the probability that the 3 beads chosen are not of the same
colour?
(b) There are seven participants for a certain contest. How many different combinations of
winner and runner-up are possible?

13. Use the tree diagram given below to find the probabilities

(a) ( )
(b) ( )

11 Prepared by Mrs Dawn Scott, Updated March 2017

 1
(/) =
4

1 3
() = (/) =
3 4

2 1
() = (/) =
3 5

4
(/) =
5
2001 5. A recent study of how a representative sample of West Indians travel to work revealed the
P2 information shown in the table below.

Type of Transportation Type of Worker

Urban Rural
Private 400 200
Public 50 20

If a worker is selected at random from this sample, what is the probability that the worker
(a) Is a rurual worker?
(b) Uses public transportation?
(c) Uses private transportation?
(d) Is a rural worker or uses public transportation?
(e) Is a rural worker, given he/she uses public transportation?
(f) Uses public transportation, given he/she is an urban worker?
(g) Uses public transportation, given he/she is a rural worker?

1999 13. A machine can produce a maximum of 5 items in a one-minute period. In an experiment to
P1 rate the actual output of the machine, the number of items produced in a one-hour period
is recorded. Identify the sample space.

2 1
14. Two events A and B are such that P( A) p, P( A B) and P( B) . Calculate p ,
5 6
given that A and B are mutually exclusive.

15. A hand of four cards is to be drawn without replacement and at random from a pack of
fifty-two playing cards. Find the probability, correct to three significant figures, that the
hand will contain:

(a) four cards of the same suit

(b) either four kings or four queens

1 1
16. Events X and Y are such that, P ( X ) and P ( X Y ) . If X and Y are
5 75

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 independent events, calculate

(a) P(Y )
(b) P ( X Y )
1999 5.(a) The following data show the reactions to a certain drug of a group of persons who
P2 participated in a large-scale experiment.
Reactions to Drug
Sex Severe Reaction Mild Reaction No Reaction
Male 520 380 350
Female 330 480 300

A person is randomly selected from the group. What is the probability that the person
selected,
(a) has no reaction to the drug?
(b) Is female and has a mild reaction to the drug?
(c) Is male or has a severe reaction to the drug?
(d) Does not have a severe reaction to the drug, given that the person is female?

(b) A bag contains two blue marbles and three red marbles. A marble is drawn at random. If this
marble is blue, it is put back in the bag along with another blue marble and a second marble
is drawn. However, if the first marble drawn is red, it is removed from the bag and not
replaced, and a second marble is drawn.
(i) Draw a tree diagram to represent the selection process described above.
(ii) What is the probability that the second marble drawn is red?
(iii) If the second marble drawn is red, what is the probability that the first marble drawn
was also red?

Spec 11(a) A class consists of 52 pupils. A social worker records the number of pupils in the class
P1 who had breakfast before coming to school. Describe the sample space.

(b) A pair of socks is chosen at random from 6 blue and 8 red socks. What is the probability
that both socks are of the same colour?

1
12. The probability of the weather being rainy on any one day is 5. determine the probability
that, on any two consecutive days, the weather is sunny on one day, rainy on the other.

1 5 5
13. The events A and B are such that (/) = 4 , (/) = 6 ( ) = 24.
Determine whether A and B are independent events.

Spec 5(a) The following data, compiled in the categories shown, indicate the acceptance of the
P2 product yam-pudding by a group of persons:

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 PRODUCT ACCEPTANCE
SEX EXCELLENT GOOD FAIR POOR
MALE
FEMALE

If a person is randomly selected from the group, what is the probability that the person
(i) considers the product to be good?
(ii) is female, and considers the product to be fair?
(iii) is male or thinks the product to be fair?
(iv) will rate the product excellent, given that the person selected is female.

(b) A small box contains ten blue balls and four white balls. Three balls are drawn, one after
the other. Use tree diagrams to find the probability of drawing one blue ball and two
white balls, if
(a) the first two balls drawn are replaced;
(ii) the first two balls drawn are not replaced.

2016 5(a) A bus has 13 seats for passengers. Eight passengers boarded the bus before it left the
terminal.
(i) Determine the number of possible seating arrangements of the passengers who
boarded the bus at the terminal.
(ii) At the first stop, no passengers will get off the bus but there are eight other persons
waiting to board the same bus. Among those waiting are three friends who must sit
together.
Determine the number of possible groups of five of the waiting passengers that can
join the bus

(b) Gavin and his best friend Alexander are two of the five specialist batsmen on his schools
cricket team.
Given that the specialist batsmen must bat before the non-specialist batsmen and that all
five specialist batsmen may bat in any order, what is the probability that Gavin and
Alexander are the opening pair for a given match?

6(a) Two fair coins and one fair die are tossed at the same time.
(i) Calculate the number of outcomes in the sample space.
(ii) Find the probability of obtaining exactly one head.
(iii) Calculate the probability of obtaining at least one head on the coins and an even
number on the die of a particular attempt.

14 Prepared by Mrs Dawn Scott, Updated March 2017