IN-VENTO2016

XIV Conference of the Italian Association for Wind Engineering

25-28September 2016, Terni, Italy

Vulnerability of the urban and rural environment to extreme winds:

the February 28 event in Italy

1,2 3 3
Cristoforo Demartino , Alberto M. Avossa , Francesco Ricciardelli
1
College of Civil Engineering, Nanjing Tech University, Nanjing 211816, PR China
2
DISG, Sapienza University of Rome, via A. Gramsci 53, 00197 Rome, Italy
3
DICDEA, Second University of Naples, Via Roma 9, 81031 Aversa (CE), Italy
Corresponding author: Cristoforo Demartino, cristoforo.demartino@uniroma1.it

Abstract

Cyclone Zissi hit the Western coast of Italy on Sunday 28th February, 2016 with high winds producing 3 casualties
and large damages. In this paper, a qualitative analysis of the main causes of vulnerability of the urban and rural
environment is given. First, the 28th February wind event is described employing the data coming from a Wind
LIDAR installed at the Second University of Naples in Aversa (CE) and from the Italian weather stations.
Moreover, wind time series are used to quantify the extreme winds in a probabilistic approach evaluating the event
return period. Then, typical urban and rural damages in buildings, street furniture and vegetation induced by the
extreme wind are classified and reported, and the potential causes of damage are investigated. Information about
damage were collected using data coming from media. Finally, some preliminary considerations on the wind
vulnerability combining the wind data, the population density and the observed damages are given.

1 Introduction

The losses caused by wind or wind-related phenomena, when they are evaluated over relatively long
periods of time, are similar or even greater (depending on the source) to the ones caused by seismic
action (Natalini, 2012). In fact, according to the Munich Reinsurance (2015) about the 50% of the natural
disaster economic losses in the world are caused by meteorological events, while only 7% from
geophysical events (Figure 1). Considering fatalities, opposite considerations can be done.

Figure 1. Loss events worldwide 2015 - Percentage distribution. After Munich Reinsurance (2015).

In this context, comparative studies of these trends and lessons learned from such impacts seem to
have a potential to provide insights on activities to be undertaken to accelerate reduction in damages
due to wind and other natural disasters. In order to assess and mitigate the wind-induced damage risk,
Demartino et al. Vulnerability of urban and rural environment to extreme winds

reports on past wind-induced damage were collected in Japan (Tamura, 2009) to construct some
database of the latest information and technologies relevant to wind-related effect. Similar actions were
also undertaken in United States. Furthermore, the launch of the International Group for Wind-Related
Disaster Risk Reduction (IG-WRDRR) guided by United Nation International Strategy Disaster
Reduction (UN/ISDR) was also introduced (Tamura, 2009).
However, although in different countries reports on high winds damage were written by different
agencies and authors, in Italy little attention has been paid to the analysis of damage induced by high
winds with statistical considerations. In Italy, this is a common practice for earthquake events. This can
be justified as in Italy high intensity windstorm are characterized by relatively low wind speeds
compared to other parts of the world. Unfortunately, the economic losses and causalities reported in the
recent windstorm events highlights the need to assess and mitigate the risk by reducing the vulnerability
of urban and rural Italian environment.
Cyclone Zissi hit the Western coast of Italy on Sunday 28th February wrecking havoc in some areas.
Earlier, the Italian Civil Protection Department issued a statement based on reliable weather forecasts
noticing adverse weather conditions and activating emergency civil protection mechanisms according
to the expected intensity in each area. After this event, the death toll derived by high winds was of 3
people. In Gioia Tauro (RC) one tree fell on a car and a person died. In the same way, two more people
lost their lives in Sessa Aurunca (CE). Large damages to buildings, street furniture and vegetation were
observed indicating large vulnerability of the Italian urban and rural environment to extreme winds.
This paper presents and discusses the February 28 extreme wind event in Italy, and the
characteristics of the measured time wind series using data coming from the Italian weather stations and
a Wind LIDAR installed at the Second University of Naples; in addition, it analyses damage mechanisms,
potential causes and it classifies of observed damage in buildings, street furniture and vegetation. Finally,
some preliminary considerations on a qualitative risk assessment are given.

2 The February 28 wind event in Italy

The February 28 wind event was characterized by the passage of cyclone Zissi: the eye of the storm
when the largest wind speeds occurred on the Italian territory, was approximately located in the Balearic
Islands and with the lowest pressure of 888 hPa (Figure 2). Moreover, it can be seen that cyclone Zissi
induced large variations of the temperature, with a sudden increase in southern Italy and a sudden drop
in northern Italy. This low pressure system induced high winds in all the Italian territory. In fact, the
main characteristic of this wind event was the large territorial extension.

Figure 2. Synoptic chart of the cyclone Zissi and air temperatures on February 28, 2016, 12 p.m.

In Figure 3 the comparison of the measurements at the Second University of Naples in Aversa (CE)
using a WindCube v2 wind LIDAR at 40 m and at Napoli/Capodichino and Grazzanise WMO meteo
stations at 10 m for the period 26th February to 1th March 2016 are shown in terms of 10-min average
wind speed and wind direction. In particular, it is visible that the maximum wind speed reaches
approximately 15-16 m/s for the Wind Lidar in Aversa and Grazzanise while at Napoli/Capodichino
Demartino et al. Vulnerability of urban and rural environment to extreme winds

lower wind speeds around 10 m/s were measured. In all the stations, the maximum velocity was
associated to an oncoming direction of about 140. The comparison here reported allows for the
validation of the wind data coming from the anemometric stations, especially for the Campania, region
hit by the wind storm (Section 3).
Wind speed Wind direction
18
350
Aversa WindCube Aversa WindCube
16 Napoli/Capodichino Napoli/Capodichino
Grazzanise 300 Grazzanise
14

250
12

10 200
U [m/s]

[ ]
8
150

6
100
4

50
2

0 0
26 27 28 29 01 26 27 28 29 01
Day Feb-Mar 2016 a) Day Feb-Mar 2016 b) c)
Figure 3. Wind (a) speed and (b) direction at Aversa (CE) at 40 m, at Napoli/Capodichino and Grazzanise WMO
at 10 m, for the period 26 February to 1 March 2016. WindCube v2 wind LIDAR (c) installed at Second
University of Naples in Aversa (CE).

In order to evaluate the severity of the February 28 wind event, anemometric wind data coming from
33 Italian airports were analysed. The adopted anemometric stations are reported in Table 1 together
with the location, GEV parameters, maximum wind speed recorded during the February 28 wind event
and corresponding return period, 10-years return period wind.
u a k
48 19
48 3 48 0.3

18 0.2
46 46 2.5 46
17 0.1
44 44 44
16 2 0
Longitude [ ]

Longitude [ ]

Longitude [ ]

42 15 42 42 -0.1
1.5
14 -0.2
40 40 40
13 1 -0.3
38 38 38
12
-0.4
11 0.5
36 36 36
-0.5
10
34 34 0 34 -0.6
10 15 20 10 15 20 10 15 20
Latitude [ ] a) Latitude [ ] b) Latitude [ ] c)
Figure 4. Estimated GEV parameters a) , b) and c) for the different anemometric wind stations.

All the anemometric data were filtered using a moving-average filter slides with a window of length
of 2 hours and removing anomalous peaks defined as values characterized by more than 10 m/s of
variation in one step of the data. The anemometric data were used to compute the Generalized Extreme
Value (GEV) distribution whose cumulative distribution function is defined as:
1
% = exp 1 + ( )/ 2 (1)

where % is the cumulative probability distribution function of the maximum wind speed in 1 year
and , and are the location parameter, the scale parameter and the shape parameter, respectively.
The GEV parameters were estimated using the maximum annual values of the last 20 years (1996-2016)
using only the years characterized by data availability larger than 80%. The estimated GEV parameters
are reported in Figure 4 and in Table 1. The calculated GEV parameters were compared with those
reported by Chiodi (2011) showing good agreement especially in terms of and with some
differences in probably due to the limited number of years of the set of wind data employed.
Demartino et al. Vulnerability of urban and rural environment to extreme winds

Table 1. Anemometric stations (ICAO code and name), location, GEV parameters, maximum wind speed
recorded during the February 28 wind event and corresponding return period, 10-years return period wind speed.
Long Lat Max U R U (R=10y)
ICAO code Name
[] [] [m/s] [m/s] [m/s] [m/s] [y] [m/s]
LIBD Bari/Palese Macchie 41.14 16.77 11.80 1.22 0.10 12.40 1.40 14.88
LIBP Pescara 42.44 14.19 12.96 1.41 -0.54 11.80 1.00 14.8
LIBR Brindisi 40.66 17.95 16.01 1.89 -0.41 14.40 1.04 18.79
LIBV Gioia Del Colle 40.77 16.93 17.89 2.70 -0.49 18.00 1.41 21.57
LICA Lamezia Terme 38.90 16.23 14.68 0.90 0.24 16.50 1.16 17.37
LICC Catania/Fontanarossa 37.47 15.06 13.56 2.27 -0.27 9.80 1.02 17.39
LICD Lampedusa 35.50 12.61 14.90 1.69 -0.03 12.40 1.00 18.58
LICJ Palermo/Punta Raisi 38.18 13.10 17.60 1.84 -0.34 16.00 1.01 20.49
LICR Reggio Calabria 38.07 15.65 19.27 1.13 -0.49 20.10 1.69 20.81
LICT Trapani/Birgi 37.91 12.49 17.68 2.39 -0.18 16.50 1.20 22.1
LIEA Alghero 40.63 8.29 12.70 1.16 -0.21 8.80 1.00 14.78
LIED Decimomannu 39.35 8.97 13.86 1.19 0.22 5.70 1.00 17.33
LIEE Cagliari/Elmas 39.25 9.05 15.20 1.35 0.14 9.80 1.00 18.77
LIEO Olbia/Costa Smeralda 40.90 9.52 16.09 1.51 -0.42 8.20 1.00 18.29
LIMC Milano/Malpensa 45.63 8.72 10.59 2.25 -0.37 8.20 1.06 14.03
LIME Bergamo/Orio Al Serio 45.67 9.70 9.60 0.93 0.02 6.70 1.00 11.74
LIMF Torino/Caselle 45.20 7.65 10.34 2.30 0.27 7.70 1.00 17.46
LIMJ Genova/Sestri 44.41 8.84 13.69 1.09 0.14 8.20 1.00 16.57
LIML Milano/Linate 45.45 9.28 10.88 1.17 -0.34 6.20 1.00 12.72
LIPE Bologna/Borgo Panigale 44.53 11.30 10.13 1.04 0.23 9.30 1.00 13.2
LIPQ Ronchi Dei Legionari 45.83 13.47 12.78 1.87 0.25 12.90 1.19 18.43
LIPR Rimini 44.02 12.61 12.38 1.26 -0.15 8.80 1.00 14.79
LIPX Verona/Villafranca 45.40 10.89 13.34 1.59 -0.64 11.30 1.04 15.24
LIPY Falconara 43.62 13.36 12.43 1.43 -0.36 8.20 1.00 14.64
LIPZ Venezia/Tessera 45.51 12.35 14.27 2.37 -0.48 12.90 1.19 17.53
LIRA Roma/Ciampino 41.80 12.60 14.05 1.75 0.00 14.90 1.24 17.99
LIRB Vigna Di Valle 42.09 12.22 13.57 2.56 -0.09 10.30 1.02 18.79
LIRF Roma Fiumicino 41.80 12.24 13.86 1.54 -0.23 13.90 1.40 16.57
LIRM Grazzanise 41.06 14.08 15.27 1.98 -0.63 15.40 1.65 17.29
LIRN Napoli/Capodichino 40.88 14.28 11.20 1.27 0.34 12.06 1.21 15.49
LIRP Pisa/S.Giusto 43.68 10.40 13.08 0.74 0.23 12.40 1.00 15.26
LIRQ Firenze/Peretola 43.81 11.20 11.57 2.02 -0.04 9.30 1.01 15.92
LIRS Grosseto 42.75 11.07 9.89 11.92 -0.64 10.80 1.61 20.25

The return period, , is the inverse of the complementary cumulative distribution of the extremes:

= 1/ 1 % (2)

Thus, if the annual maximum is being considered, then the return period is measured in years.
48 48 1.6 48 22
20
21
46 46 46
1.5
18 20
44 44 44 19
16 1.4
Longitude [ ]

Longitude [ ]

Longitude [ ]

18
42 42 42
14
1.3 17
40 12 40 40 16
1.2 15
38 10 38 38
14
8 1.1
36 36 36 13

6 12
34 34 1 34
10 15 20 10 15 20 10 15 20
Latitude [ ] a) Latitude [ ] b) Latitude [ ] c)
Figure 5. Maximum wind speed recorded during the February 28 wind event a) and corresponding return period,
10-years return period wind.

Using Eq. 2, the return period corresponding to the maximum wind speed recorded during the
February 28 wind event and the wind speed corresponding to a return period of 10 years were calculated;
these are reported in Table 1 and Figure 5. In particular, it can be seen that the maximum wind speed
was in the entire northern coast of Sicily, the Italian Tyrrhenian coast (from Reggio Calabria up to
Civitavecchia) and the north part of Apulia; all these areas have been strongly hit by the February 28
Demartino et al. Vulnerability of urban and rural environment to extreme winds

wind event with strong damage (Section 3). These will be analysed in the following. Finally, it is
important to highlight that this event was not a very extreme one. As a matter of fact, it was characterized
by return periods at least lower than 1.6 years (Figure 5b) with maximum values of the wind speeds
(Figure 5a) generally lower than the 10-years return period wind speed (Figure 5c).

3 Observed damages

Typical damages in buildings, street furniture and vegetation induced by the wind storm caused by
the cyclone Zissi, observed in Southern Italy, are classified in (a) roofs, (b) street furniture, (c) trees and
(d) facades and are reported in the following. The damages reported herein were found in the media.
These damages occurred in urban and rural environment, although the number of damages found in
urban areas is larger due to the high density of population and corresponding greater number of reports
by the media. Accordingly, damages reported in this Section should be seen as a classification of the
typical ones available on news and not as a collection containing all the damages occurred.

3.1 Roofs
High winds during the cyclone Zissi caused damage to roofing system of buildings. Generally
speaking, damage to roof system induced by wind occurs either directly or it is triggered by local
breakage of openings such as glass windows. Considering the first case, damage to roofs is caused by
local high suctions and large pressure fluctuations around the roof periphery and protruding portions.
These local failures enable wind to enter under the roof surface, thus increasing the underneath pressure
and rapidly increasing lift forces as shown in Fig. 6. Moreover, local roof damage can lead to the detach
of roofing elements or total roof destruction.

Figure 6: Damage Correlation (Uematsu et al., 1992).

a) b) c)
Figure 7. Damage to roofing system cover elements: a) Monterusciello, b) San Gennaro Vesuviano, Campania;
c) Cosenza, Calabria. (source www.cronacaflegrea.it, Il Mattino, www.cronacaflegrea.it, Repubblica.it).

In some cases, only roof covering elements removal was detected. In particular, tar paper removal
was observed for a building in Monterusciello and in San Gennaro Vesuviano (Figs. 7a-7b) and for the
Cosenza Prefecture where some parts of the roof cover flew onto the nearby streets (Fig. 7c). Moreover,
in Fig. 7b, it can be seen the collapse to the antenna located on the roof.
Demartino et al. Vulnerability of urban and rural environment to extreme winds

a) b) c)
Figure 8. Disruption of the roofing cover and/or roofing panel of: a) and b) residential buildings in Naples,
Campania; c) church in Fasano, Apulia. (source Il Mattino, Repubblica.it, Osservatoriooggi.it).

In other cases, the removal and disruption of the shingles and of the insulation panel (Fig. 8a), or of
the fully roof system (Fig. 8b) were detected in residential buildings in Naples. Moreover, the detach of
a single roofing panel of a church was reported in Fasano (Fig. 8c).

a) b)

c) d)

e) f)
Figure 9. Blown-off of the entire roof structure: a) Quarto, Campania (source Quartonews); b) Montecorice,
Campania (source SalernoToday); c) Amantea, Calabria and d) Cosenza, Calabria (source Repubblica.it);
e) Naples, Campania (source Il Mattino); f) Corato, Apulia (source coratolive).

The disruption of the entire roof system was noticed in some towns of Campania, Calabria and
Apulia (Fig. 9). In all these cases, the main reason of the observed wind damage was that the roof was
poorly designed and realized without a careful check of the resistance to the global sliding. In fact,
special attention has to be given to the cladding/component design especially for the construction of
corrugated sheet metal type roofing systems characterized by high wind vulnerability.
Demartino et al. Vulnerability of urban and rural environment to extreme winds

3.2 Street furniture

High winds caused damage to street furniture as bus shelter, billboard, light poles and dumpsters. In
Figs. 10a-10b, the overturning and breaking of the base joints of bus shelters in Milazzo (Sicily) and
Cosenza (Calabria) are depicted. In Figs. 10c-10d, the support pole of bus-stop sign board and of street
indications were knocked down. Moreover, in Figs. 11a and 11b the overturning and falling of billboards
onto streets are depicted.

a) b) c) d)
Figure 10. Overturning and breaking of the base joints of a bus shelter, billboard and street indication poles:
a) Milazzo, Sicily (source OggiMilazzo); b) Cosenza and c) Castrolibero, Calabria (source Repubblica.it); d)
Bisceglie, Apulia (source Bisceglie in diretta).

a) b)
Figure 11. Overturning and breaking of the base joints of a billboard support structures: a) Barletta and
b) Corato, Apulia. (source Meteopuglia).

a) b) c)

d) e) f)
Figure 12. Falling of light poles: a) Napoli, Campania; b) Milazzo, c) and d) Palermo, e) Messina, Sicily; f) Aiello
Calabro, Calabria. (source Il Mattino, OggiMilazzo, La Gazzetta Palermitana, Il Giornale di Sicilia, Sicilians,
Aiellocalabro).
Demartino et al. Vulnerability of urban and rural environment to extreme winds

Windstorm has caused the falling of light poles in urban and rural areas (Fig. 12). In most of these
cases, the failure of the base joints (Figs. 12a-12b) or of the foundation system (Fig. 12c) was observed.
In fact, the entire structure of the street furniture was undamaged and any failure of the support structural
element was detected. Moreover, in the case of the light poles overturned in Palermo and Messina (Fig.
12d-12e) the failure of the base cross section was due to the exceeding of the bending base resistance
lowered by corrosion of structural material. Furthermore, in the case of the light pole overturned near
Aiello Calabro (Fig. 12f) the failure was observed for buckling conditions occurred at the base cross
section. Finally, the overturning and motion of a large number of dumpsters was also found in many urban
areas; this is due to the low weight when they are empty.

3.3 Trees
The windstorm causes the fall of many trees in rural and urban areas. Generally speaking, trees
failure induced by wind has three mechanisms (Kane et al., 2001): (a) root failure, (b) trunk failure and
(c) branch failure. In the first case, the root failure is typical of trees alive at the time of failure. In the
second and third cases, the trunk or branch failures are typical of trees decayed at the time of failure.

a) b) c)
Figure 13. Falling of trees in Campania: a - b) Napoli; c) Ischia (source YouReporter, VesuvioLive, ilgolfo24).

a) b) c)
Figure 14. Falling of trees in Calabria: a) Cosenza; b - c) Reggio Calabria. (source Repubblica.it, Inmeteo.net).

a) b)
Figure 15. Falling of trees in Sicily. a) Palermo; b) Messina (La Gazzetta Palermitana, source Messinaora).

In particular, in rural areas of Gioia Tauro (Calabria) a eucalyptus tree fell onto car causing the death
of a farmer. For the same reason, other two victims in Sessa Aurunca (Campania) were reported. In
many cases, large trees were knocked down in urban areas destroying many vehicles by crashing not
resulting in casualties (Figs. 13-14-15). For example, a palm tree and a maritime pine were uprooted
and fell down crashing onto some vehicles in Naples (Figs. 13a-13b). Similarly, in Cosenza (Calabria)
two pine trees fell onto parking area damaging some cars (Fig. 14a). A holm tree was uprooted with its
fixed base in Palermo (Fig. 15a). In all these cases a root failure, typical of live trees having no defects
Demartino et al. Vulnerability of urban and rural environment to extreme winds

(Kane, 2007), has been detected. In the last two cases, the girdling roots or obstructions to root growth
(Kane, 2007), as sometimes observed for trees planted in urban area, induced the root failure.
On the other hand, the windstorm produced breaking of the trunk tree that then fell onto parked cars
or other street or outdoor furniture crushing them (Figs. 13c, 14b-14c 15b). In these cases, the trunk
failure has been identified; this is generally related to a severe decay. For instance, Kane et al. (2001)
indicate a decay of more than 70% of the trunk diameter as sufficient to increase the failure probability
under extreme winds.

3.4 Facades
The windstorm caused the overturning of a scaffold structure that fell onto vehicles (Fig. 16a). The
collapse of this structure was due to the lack of anchorage system to the building facade. Moreover, high
winds induced the detachment of plaster from a building facade (Fig. 11b). In this case, it is evident that
the plaster layer was deteriorated and therefore prone to detachment.

a) b)
Figure 16. a) Overturning of scaffold structure in Naples; b) detachment of the plaster layer from the wall of a
building, Casavatore, Campania. (source ildesk, Il Mattino).

4 Qualitative risk assessment

Risk evaluation is generally done through numerical analyses or only in a qualitative way using
empirical approaches employing available data. The latter approach can be used for the derivation of
empirical vulnerability models and/or numerical model validation. For environmental and natural issues,
risk factors can be conveniently defined as:

= (3)

This definition indicates that the risk is related to a specific source (Hazard) as a function of the
magnitude of the potential damage that may result from the considered hazard (Vulnerability) and from
the probability that observers (as in this case input data come from media) are located in the area hit by
the source (Exposure).
Using the data previously reported, simple considerations on the experienced damage during the
February 28 wind events can be done. In particular, the hazard can be expressed in terms of the
maximum wind speed of the 28th February, 2016 for different anemometric stations (Figure 17a); it can
be seen that the maximum wind speeds were recorded in the entire northern coast of Sicily, the Italian
Tyrrhenian coast and the north part of Apulia (see also Section 2). In Figure 17b, it is shown the
distribution of the population density for the different Italian municipalities; this is a measure of the
exposure as larger values of the population density are related to larger number of observers; it can be
seen that large values of population density in the area hit by the 28 February wind event are the
hinterland of Rome and Naples, the Apulian coast area, Cosenza, Lamezia Terme and Reggio Calabria
and the hinterland of Messina and Palermo. In Figure 17c, it is shown the location of the observed wind
damage reported by different media. It can be seen the good agreement between the area where high
winds were recorded (high hazard), the area where large values of the population density are found (high
exposure) with the observed wind damage. These preliminary results indicate a homogenous high
Demartino et al. Vulnerability of urban and rural environment to extreme winds

vulnerability in the Southern Italian territory. Moreover, this large vulnerability is also associated to a
frequent hazard characterized by low return periods (Figure 5b).
48 48

20

46 46

18

44 44

Peak 10-minutes-wind velocity [m/s]

16
Longitude [ ]

Longitude [ ]
42 42
14

40 40
12

38 10 38

36 8 36

6
34 34
6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Latitude [ ]
a) b) Latitude []
c)
Figure 17. a) Maximum wind speed and directions of the 28th February, 2016; b) density of the population in
Italy in 2011 from ISTAT; c) location of the observed wind damages reported by different media.

5 Conclusions and perspectives

In this paper, the February 28 wind event in Italy was analysed using data coming from different
Italian anemometric wind stations. Maximum wind velocity recorded during the event were analysed
using a probabilistic approach concluding that this is a relatively frequent event. Urban and rural
damages in buildings, street furniture and vegetation induced by the extreme wind were classified and
reported using data coming from media. Finally, a preliminary assessment of the risk using these data is
performed highlighting the large vulnerability of the Southern Italian territory to high winds.
This is only a preliminary study performed using simple public available data. The importance of
these analyses is crucial as their outcomes can be used to evaluate and reduce the vulnerability of urban
and rural environment. Future studies should therefore include large set of data deriving from different
events and from more accurate sources in order to accurately establish wind vulnerability.

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