Probability Cheat Sheet

Probability: A measure of the chance an event will occur.

Proportions and percentages as probabilities

Often we express probabilities derived from relative frequencies in many different
ways.
1. As a proportion: 76/148
2. As a percentage: 51.4%
3. As a probability: 0.514

Probability Definitions and Relationships

Sample Space: The set of all possible outcomes of a random experiment.

Simple Event: One specific outcome in the sample space.

Event: A combination of one or more outcome of a random experiment.

Eg: Rolling a die. Rolling a 2 is a simple event (a possible outcome). The sample
space would be rolling a 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, or 6.

Complementary Events: One event is the complement of another event if the two
events do not contain any of the same simple events and together they cover the
entire space. For an event A, the notation represents the complement of A.
Eg: Tim has a dog or does not. Tim owns a car or does not. Your favorite team
wins the Super Bowl or does not.

Mutually Exclusive Events: Two events that do not contain any of the same simple
events (outcomes). Disjoint events.

Eg: Event A: Roll a 5 or 6 on one roll of the die.

Event B: Roll a 1 or 2 on one roll of the die.

These events are disjoint because they do not contain any of the same simple
events. Therefore we can say that they are mutually exclusive events.

Independent Events: Knowing the probability of one event occurring does not
change the probability of the second event occurring.

Eg: You flip one coin and see that it is a head. What is the probability that when
you next roll a die you will get a 3?
Dependent Events: Knowing that one event occurs changes the probability that the
other occurs.

Example: Event A: Pulling a King out of a deck of cards.

Event B: Pulling a Queen out of the same deck
of cards.

Conditional Probabilities: If two events are dependent, knowing the occurrence of

the first event changes the probability of the second. The conditional probability of
the event B, given that the event A occurs, is the long-run relative frequency with
which event B occurs when circumstances are such that A also occurs.

P(B): Unconditional probability that event B occurs.

P(B|A): Probability of B given A. The conditional probability that the event B occurs
given that we know A has occurred or will occur.

()
Equation: (|) = ()

Rules of Probability

Rule 1: For any event, 0 () 1

Rule 2: () = 1.

Rule 3: ( ) = 1 ()

Rule 4: () = 0

Rule 5: ( ) = () + () ( )

Rule 6: () = ( ) + ( )

Rule 7: (1 ) + (2 ) + + ( ) = 1

Rule 8: ( ) = and ( ) =
Tree Diagrams

A tree diagram can be used to find the possible outcomes in a sample space and to
find the probabilities of combined events in an experiment. The key features of a
tree diagram are as follows.

1. A minimum of two branches emanate from a point.

2. For each set of branches emanating from a point on a tree diagram, the sum
of their probabilities is always 1.
3. The probability of a path is found by multiplying the probability on the
corresponding branches.
4. The sum of the probabilities from all the different paths is 1.

CLASS WORKED EXAMPLES:

1 1 1
1. The events A and B are such that () = 2 , () = 6 ( ) = 3.
Find (a) ( ) (b) (B|A).

2. Two independent events A and B are such that () = 0.6 () = 0.2.

(a) Calculate ( ). (b) Find ( )

3. Two events A and B are known to be mutually exclusive. () = 0.4 and

() = 0.25.
 Find (a) ( ) (b) ( )

4. Suppose that A and B are events are we know that () = 0.7, () =

0.5, ( ) = 0.3. Calculate (a) ( ) (b) ( ) (c) (A|B)

5. Two fair dice are thrown.

X is the event: The score on the first die is divisible by 2.
Y is the event: The sum of the scores is 8.
(a) Showing all working clearly, determine whether X and Y are
independent.
(b) Find ( ).

6. 600 people (male and female) were asked if they were in favour or against
cell phones being in Schools. Of the 400 males, 145 were in favour, whereas
160 females were against.
If a person is selected at random from these 600 people, find the following
probabilities.
a) They are in favour of cellphones being in school.
b) They are in favour of cellphones given that person is a female.
c) They are male and against cellphones.
d) They are in favour of phones or they are female.
e) Are the events male and in favour independent?

TREE DIAGRAMS:

1. An urn contains 14 discs, 5 of which are red and 9 are green. A disc is
removed at random from the urn and not replaced. A second disc is then
removed from the urn. Find the probability that the disc will be
(a) Both red (b) of different colours (c) the same colour.
2. A bag contains three green marbles and six blue marbles. Two marbles are
drawn at random and taken out of the bag one at a time. If the first marble is
green, the marble is returned to the bag. If the first marble is blue, the marble
is removed from the bag. Find the probability that the two marbles are (a) the
same colour (b) different colours.

3. The four kings are removed from a deck of cards. A coin is tossed and one of
the kings is chosen. Draw a tree diagram to illustrate the sample space. What
is the probability of getting heads on the coin and the king of diamonds?