PROYECCION2037FINAL

OPERADOR NACIONAL DE ELECTRICIDAD - CEN
GERENCIA DE PLANEAMIENTO
PLAN DE OPERACION DEL S.N.I. JULIO 2016 - JUNIO 201
PROYECCIN DE DEMANDAS DE POTENCIA (MW)
EMPRESAS Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20

Ambato 130.1 138.91 138.91 138.91 138.91
CNEL - Bolivar 18.4 18.53 18.53 18.53 18.53
Regional Centro Sur 188.8 192.60 192.60 192.60 192.60
Cotopaxi 84.0 88.54 88.54 88.54 88.54
CNEL - Santo Domingo 99.8 101.23 101.23 101.23 101.23
Quito 698.0 690.95 690.95 690.95 690.95
Regional Norte 100.8 100.34 100.34 100.34 100.34
CNEL - Los Rios 97.2 104.18 104.18 104.18 104.18
Regional Sur 67.3 73.66 73.66 73.66 73.66
CNEL - El Oro 189.3 197.46 197.46 197.46 197.46
CNEL - Guayas Los Ros 339.7 354.58 354.58 354.58 354.58
CNEL - Guayaquil 947.8 949.71 949.71 949.71 949.71
CNEL - Esmeraldas 95.7 96.58 96.58 96.58 96.58
CNEL - Manabi 261.7 311.67 311.67 311.67 311.67
CNEL - Milagro 111.2 116.04 116.04 116.04 116.04
Riobamba 66.3 66.69 66.69 66.69 66.69
CNEL - Sta. Elena 108.0 109.73 109.73 109.73 109.73
CNEL - Sucumbios 59.3 61.24 61.24 61.24 61.24
Azogues 18.4 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99
TOTAL S/E Entrega 3681.8 3790.65 3790.65 3790.65 3790.65
TOTAL Bornes Generador (1) 3708.6 3818.20
Perdidas potencia y coincidencia 0.7% 0.01

Crecimiento anual de demanda 0.03 3790.65
PROYECCIN DE DEMANDAS DE ENERGA (GWh)
EMPRESAS Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20

Ambato 54.8 61.25 #REF! #REF! #REF!
CNEL - Bolivar 7.4 7.94 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Regional Centro Sur 90.1 96.73 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Cotopaxi 43.3 46.44 #REF! #REF! #REF!
CNEL - Santo Domingo 50.8 55.47 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Quito 341.7 356.71 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Regional Norte 48.5 51.19 #REF! #REF! #REF!
CNEL - Los Rios 40.9 43.83 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Regional Sur 31.4 34.74 #REF! #REF! #REF!
CNEL - El Oro 98.8 106.46 #REF! #REF! #REF!
CNEL - Guayas Los Ros 184.4 202.42 #REF! #REF! #REF!
CNEL - Guayaquil 475.0 497.17 #REF! #REF! #REF!
CNEL - Esmeraldas 46.5 48.74 #REF! #REF! #REF!
CNEL - Manabi 137.6 163.95 #REF! #REF! #REF!
CNEL - Milagro 57.8 62.82 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Riobamba 29.8 31.88 #REF! #REF! #REF!
CNEL - Sta. Elena 54.7 57.78 #REF! #REF! #REF!
CNEL - Sucumbios 28.2 29.01 #REF! #REF! #REF!
Azogues 9.3 9.53 #REF! #REF! #REF!
TOTAL S/E Entrega 1831.2 1964.06 23562.01 24747.65 25985.95
TOTAL Bornes Generador (1) 1907.5 2045.90
(1) factor de prdidas : 4,0% 4.0% 4.0%

3.80% 5.03% 4.12%
Demanda media 2,543 2,728 3.80% 5.03% 4.12%
Factor de carga 69.1% 72.0% 3.80% 5.03% 4.12%
ECTRICIDAD - CENACE
NEAMIENTO
JULIO 2016 - JUNIO 2018
DE POTENCIA (MW)
CUADRO 1.2
Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 Dec-26 Dec-27 Dec-28

138.91 138.91 138.91 138.91 138.91 138.91 138.91 138.91
18.53 18.53 18.53 18.53 18.53 18.53 18.53 18.53
192.60 192.60 192.60 192.60 192.60 192.60 192.60 192.60
88.54 88.54 88.54 88.54 88.54 88.54 88.54 88.54
101.23 101.23 101.23 101.23 101.23 101.23 101.23 101.23
690.95 690.95 690.95 690.95 690.95 690.95 690.95 690.95
100.34 100.34 100.34 100.34 100.34 100.34 100.34 100.34
104.18 104.18 104.18 104.18 104.18 104.18 104.18 104.18
73.66 73.66 73.66 73.66 73.66 73.66 73.66 73.66
197.46 197.46 197.46 197.46 197.46 197.46 197.46 197.46
354.58 354.58 354.58 354.58 354.58 354.58 354.58 354.58
949.71 949.71 949.71 949.71 949.71 949.71 949.71 949.71
96.58 96.58 96.58 96.58 96.58 96.58 96.58 96.58
311.67 311.67 311.67 311.67 311.67 311.67 311.67 311.67
116.04 116.04 116.04 116.04 116.04 116.04 116.04 116.04
66.69 66.69 66.69 66.69 66.69 66.69 66.69 66.69
109.73 109.73 109.73 109.73 109.73 109.73 109.73 109.73
61.24 61.24 61.24 61.24 61.24 61.24 61.24 61.24
17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99
3790.65 3790.65 3790.65 3790.65 3790.65 3790.65 3790.65 3790.65
DE ENERGA (GWh)

#REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF! #REF!
27285.25 28395.76 29565.66 30807.42 32067.45 33318.08 34584.16 36071.28
3.90% 4.12% 4.06% 3.98% 3.56% 3.87% 4.21% 5.20%

3.90% 4.12% 4.06% 3.98% 3.56% 3.87% 4.21% 5.20%
3.90% 4.12% 4.06% 3.98% 3.56% 3.87% 4.21% 5.20%
138.91 138.91 138.91 138.91 138.91 138.91 138.91 138.91
18.53 18.53 18.53 18.53 18.53 18.53 18.53 18.53
192.60 192.60 192.60 192.60 192.60 192.60 192.60 192.60
88.54 88.54 88.54 88.54 88.54 88.54 88.54 88.54
101.23 101.23 101.23 101.23 101.23 101.23 101.23 101.23
690.95 690.95 690.95 690.95 690.95 690.95 690.95 690.95
100.34 100.34 100.34 100.34 100.34 100.34 100.34 100.34
104.18 104.18 104.18 104.18 104.18 104.18 104.18 104.18
73.66 73.66 73.66 73.66 73.66 73.66 73.66 73.66
197.46 197.46 197.46 197.46 197.46 197.46 197.46 197.46
354.58 354.58 354.58 354.58 354.58 354.58 354.58 354.58
949.71 949.71 949.71 949.71 949.71 949.71 949.71 949.71
96.58 96.58 96.58 96.58 96.58 96.58 96.58 96.58
311.67 311.67 311.67 311.67 311.67 311.67 311.67 311.67
116.04 116.04 116.04 116.04 116.04 116.04 116.04 116.04
66.69 66.69 66.69 66.69 66.69 66.69 66.69 66.69
109.73 109.73 109.73 109.73 109.73 109.73 109.73 109.73
61.24 61.24 61.24 61.24 61.24 61.24 61.24 61.24
17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99 17.99
3790.65 3790.65 3790.65 3790.65 3790.65 3790.65 3790.65 3790.65

37586.28 39014.55 40458.09 41914.58 43381.59 44878.26 46359.24 47865.92
3.90% 3.40% 3.58% 5.63% 3.12% 3.32% 3.24% 3.15%

3.90% 3.40% 3.58% 5.63% 3.12% 3.32% 3.24% 3.15%
3.90% 3.40% 3.58% 5.63% 3.12% 3.32% 3.24% 3.15%
Dec-37
138.91
18.53
192.60
88.54
101.23
690.95
100.34
104.18
73.66
197.46
354.58
949.71
96.58
311.67
116.04
66.69
109.73
61.24
17.99
3790.65
Dec-37
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49397.63
3.06%
3.06%
3.06%
OPERADOR NACIONAL DE ELECTRICIDAD - CENACE
PLAN DE OPERACION DEL S.N.I. DICIEMBRE 2016 - DICIEMBRE 2037
PROYECCIN DE DEMANDAS DE POTENCIA (MW) AL 2037

CUADRO 1.2
EMPRESAS Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25
Ambato 130.09 138.91 145.86 153.12 160.01 166.97 174.04 181.21 188.42 195.05
CNEL - Bolivar 18.43 18.53 19.46 20.43 21.35 22.28 23.22 24.17 25.14 26.02
Regional Centro Sur 188.83 192.60 202.23 212.30 221.86 231.51 241.30 251.24 261.24 270.44
Cotopaxi 83.95 88.54 92.96 97.59 101.98 106.42 110.92 115.49 120.09 124.32
CNEL - Santo Domingo 99.78 101.23 106.29 111.58 116.60 121.68 126.82 132.05 137.30 142.14
Quito 697.99 690.95 725.50 761.63 795.90 830.52 865.66 901.32 937.19 970.18
Regional Norte 100.85 100.34 105.36 110.61 115.58 120.61 125.71 130.89 136.10 140.89
CNEL - Los Rios 97.16 104.18 109.39 114.84 120.01 125.23 130.53 135.90 141.31 146.29
Regional Sur 67.32 73.66 77.34 81.19 84.84 88.54 92.28 96.08 99.91 103.42
CNEL - El Oro 189.26 197.46 207.33 217.65 227.45 237.34 247.38 257.57 267.83 277.25
CNEL - Guayas Los Ros 339.73 354.58 372.31 390.85 408.44 426.21 444.24 462.54 480.95 497.88
CNEL - Guayaquil 947.79 949.71 997.19 1046.86 1093.96 1141.55 1189.84 1238.86 1288.17 1333.51
CNEL - Esmeraldas 95.65 96.58 101.40 106.45 111.25 116.08 120.99 125.98 130.99 135.60
CNEL - Manabi 261.68 311.67 327.26 343.55 359.01 374.63 390.48 406.57 422.75 437.63
CNEL - Milagro 111.23 116.04 121.85 127.91 133.67 139.49 145.39 151.38 157.40 162.94
Riobamba 66.34 66.69 70.03 73.52 76.82 80.17 83.56 87.00 90.46 93.65
CNEL - Sta. Elena 107.97 109.73 115.21 120.95 126.39 131.89 137.47 143.13 148.83 154.07
CNEL - Sucumbios 59.33 61.24 64.31 67.51 70.55 73.62 76.73 79.89 83.07 85.99
Azogues 18.44 17.99 18.89 19.83 20.73 21.63 22.54 23.47 24.41 25.27
TOTAL S/E Entrega 3681.84 3790.65 3980.18 4178.39 4366.42 4556.36 4749.09 4944.75 5141.56 5322.54
Crecimiento Anual de Demanda 2.95% 5.00% 4.98% 4.50% 4.35% 4.23% 4.12% 3.98% 3.52%
EMPRESAS Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25
Ambato 54.81 61.25 63.58 66.78 69.53 72.24 75.22 78.27 81.39 84.29
CNEL - Bolivar 7.38 7.94 8.25 8.66 9.02 9.37 9.76 10.15 10.56 10.93
Regional Centro Sur 90.11 96.73 100.40 105.45 109.80 114.08 118.78 123.60 128.52 133.10
Cotopaxi 43.34 46.44 48.20 50.62 52.71 54.77 57.02 59.34 61.70 63.90
CNEL - Santo Domingo 50.79 55.47 57.58 60.47 62.96 65.42 68.11 70.88 73.70 76.32
Quito 341.75 356.71 370.27 388.89 404.92 420.71 438.04 455.83 473.97 490.84
Regional Norte 48.53 51.19 53.13 55.81 58.11 60.37 62.86 65.41 68.01 70.44
CNEL - Los Rios 40.91 43.83 45.50 47.79 49.76 51.70 53.83 56.01 58.24 60.32
Regional Sur 31.39 34.74 36.06 37.87 39.43 40.97 42.66 44.39 46.16 47.80
CNEL - El Oro 98.82 106.46 110.50 116.06 120.84 125.55 130.73 136.03 141.45 146.48
CNEL - Guayas Los Ros 184.45 202.42 210.11 220.68 229.77 238.73 248.56 258.66 268.95 278.52
CNEL - Guayaquil 475.00 497.17 516.06 542.02 564.35 586.36 610.51 635.30 660.59 684.10
CNEL - Esmeraldas 46.50 48.74 50.59 53.13 55.32 57.48 59.85 62.28 64.76 67.06
CNEL - Manabi 137.61 163.95 170.18 178.75 186.11 193.37 201.33 209.51 217.85 225.60
CNEL - Milagro 57.78 62.82 65.21 68.49 71.31 74.09 77.14 80.28 83.47 86.44
Riobamba 29.77 31.88 33.09 34.75 36.19 37.60 39.15 40.74 42.36 43.87
CNEL - Sta. Elena 54.74 57.78 59.98 63.00 65.59 68.15 70.96 73.84 76.78 79.51
CNEL - Sucumbios 28.24 29.01 30.11 31.63 32.93 34.21 35.62 37.07 38.55 39.92
Azogues 9.31 9.53 9.89 10.39 10.82 11.24 11.70 12.18 12.66 13.12
TOTAL S/E Entrega 1831.20 1964.06 2038.70 2141.24 2229.46 2316.41 2411.85 2509.77 2609.66 2702.56
Crecimiento de Anual de Energa 7.26% 3.80% 5.03% 4.12% 3.90% 4.12% 4.06% 3.98% 3.56%
Carga: Diciembre de 2017 Generacion MW: Diciembre 2017

BARRA Mw Gwh FC% BARRA Hidro Termo Total
Quito 852.54 436.91 71.2% Quito 209.00 204.76 413.77
Santo Domingo 197.80 104.21 73.2% Santo Domingo 231.50 230.49 461.99
Quevedo 522.23 268.51 71.4% Quevedo 257.87 215.04 472.91
Guayaquil 1621.14 865.92 74.2% Guayaquil 252.69 1316.19 1568.88
Paute 284.25 141.00 68.9% Paute 1497.71 22.60 1520.30
Totoras 312.67 147.51 65.5% Totoras 206.54 0.00 206.54
Coca Codo Sinclair Coca Codo Sinclair 1377.20 0.00 1377.20
Total 3790.65 1964.06 72.0% Total 4032.51 1989.08 6021.59
OPERADOR NACIONAL DE ELECTRICIDAD - CENACE
PLAN DE OPERACION DEL S.N.I. DICIEMBRE 2016 - DICIEMBRE 2037
PROYECCIN DE DEMANDAS DE POTENCIA (MW) AL 2037

CUADRO 1.2
Dec-26 Dec-27 Dec-28 Dec-29 Dec-30 Dec-31 Dec-32 Dec-33 Dec-34 Dec-35 Dec-36 Dec-37
201.58 208.22 214.90 221.60 228.36 235.44 242.65 250.53 258.27 266.38 274.91 283.16
26.89 27.78 28.67 29.56 30.47 31.41 32.37 33.42 34.46 35.54 36.68 37.78
279.50 288.69 297.96 307.26 316.63 326.44 336.43 347.37 358.10 369.35 381.16 392.60
128.48 132.71 136.97 141.24 145.55 150.06 154.65 159.68 164.61 169.78 175.21 180.47
146.90 151.73 156.60 161.49 166.41 171.57 176.82 182.57 188.21 194.12 200.33 206.34
1002.68 1035.67 1068.92 1102.27 1135.89 1171.10 1206.93 1246.16 1284.67 1325.00 1367.40 1408.43
145.61 150.40 155.23 160.07 164.96 170.07 175.27 180.97 186.56 192.42 198.58 204.53
151.19 156.16 161.18 166.20 171.27 176.58 181.99 187.90 193.71 199.79 206.18 212.37
106.89 110.40 113.95 117.50 121.09 124.84 128.66 132.84 136.95 141.25 145.77 150.14
286.54 295.97 305.47 315.00 324.61 334.67 344.91 356.12 367.12 378.65 390.77 402.49
514.56 531.48 548.55 565.66 582.91 600.98 619.37 639.50 659.26 679.96 701.72 722.77
1378.18 1423.52 1469.22 1515.06 1561.27 1609.67 1658.92 1712.84 1765.77 1821.21 1879.49 1935.87
140.15 144.76 149.40 154.07 158.77 163.69 168.70 174.18 179.56 185.20 191.13 196.86
452.29 467.17 482.16 497.21 512.37 528.26 544.42 562.11 579.48 597.68 616.81 635.31
168.40 173.94 179.52 185.12 190.77 196.68 202.70 209.29 215.76 222.53 229.65 236.54
96.78 99.97 103.18 106.40 109.64 113.04 116.50 120.29 124.00 127.90 131.99 135.95
159.23 164.47 169.75 175.04 180.38 185.98 191.67 197.90 204.01 210.42 217.15 223.66
88.88 91.80 94.75 97.70 100.68 103.80 106.98 110.46 113.87 117.45 121.20 124.84
26.11 26.97 27.84 28.71 29.58 30.50 31.43 32.45 33.46 34.51 35.61 36.68
5500.84 5681.82 5864.21 6047.17 6231.61 6424.79 6621.39 6836.58 7047.83 7269.14 7501.75 7726.80
3.35% 3.29% 3.21% 3.12% 3.05% 3.10% 3.06% 3.25% 3.09% 3.14% 3.20% 3.00%
Dec-26 Dec-27 Dec-28 Dec-29 Dec-30 Dec-31 Dec-32 Dec-33 Dec-34 Dec-35 Dec-36 Dec-37
87.55 91.23 95.98 99.72 103.11 106.80 112.82 116.34 120.20 124.09 128.00 131.92
11.35 11.83 12.45 12.93 13.37 13.85 14.63 15.09 15.59 16.09 16.60 17.11
138.25 144.07 151.56 157.47 162.83 168.66 178.15 183.71 189.81 195.96 202.13 208.32
66.37 69.16 72.76 75.60 78.17 80.97 85.52 88.19 91.12 94.07 97.04 100.00
79.28 82.62 86.91 90.30 93.37 96.71 102.16 105.35 108.84 112.37 115.91 119.46
509.84 531.30 558.93 580.73 600.47 621.97 656.98 677.48 699.97 722.65 745.42 768.23
73.16 76.24 80.21 83.33 86.17 89.25 94.28 97.22 100.45 103.70 106.97 110.24
62.65 65.29 68.68 71.36 73.79 76.43 80.73 83.25 86.02 88.80 91.60 94.40
49.65 51.74 54.43 56.56 58.48 60.57 63.98 65.98 68.17 70.38 72.60 74.82
152.15 158.56 166.80 173.31 179.20 185.62 196.07 202.18 208.90 215.66 222.46 229.26
289.30 301.48 317.16 329.53 340.73 352.93 372.80 384.43 397.20 410.07 422.98 435.93
710.58 740.49 779.00 809.38 836.90 866.86 915.66 944.23 975.58 1007.19 1038.92 1070.71
69.66 72.59 76.37 79.35 82.04 84.98 89.76 92.56 95.64 98.74 101.85 104.96
234.33 244.20 256.90 266.92 275.99 285.87 301.97 311.39 321.73 332.15 342.61 353.10
89.79 93.57 98.43 102.27 105.75 109.53 115.70 119.31 123.27 127.27 131.28 135.29
45.56 47.48 49.95 51.90 53.66 55.58 58.71 60.55 62.56 64.58 66.62 68.66
82.59 86.07 90.54 94.07 97.27 100.75 106.43 109.75 113.39 117.06 120.75 124.45
41.46 43.21 45.46 47.23 48.83 50.58 53.43 55.10 56.93 58.77 60.62 62.48
13.62 14.20 14.93 15.52 16.04 16.62 17.55 18.10 18.70 19.31 19.92 20.53
2807.15 2925.33 3077.45 3197.47 3306.19 3424.55 3617.35 3730.21 3854.05 3978.92 4104.26 4229.85
3.87% 4.21% 5.20% 3.90% 3.40% 3.58% 5.63% 3.12% 3.32% 3.24% 3.15% 3.06%
Proyeccin de Carga: Diciembre de 2037

BARRA Mw Gwh FC%
Quito 1737.80 940.94 75.2%
Santo Domingo 403.20 224.42 77.3%
Quevedo 1064.51 578.28 75.4%
Guayaquil 3304.52 1864.86 78.4%
Paute 579.42 303.66 72.8%
Totoras 637.35 317.69 69.2%
Coca Codo Sinclair
Total 7726.80 4229.85 76.0%

PROYECCION2037FINAL

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OPERADOR NACIONAL DE ELECTRICIDAD - CEN

PROYECCIN DE DEMANDAS DE POTENCIA (MW)

EMPRESAS Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20

Perdidas potencia y coincidencia 0.7% 0.01

PROYECCIN DE DEMANDAS DE ENERGA (GWh)

EMPRESAS Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20

(1) factor de prdidas : 4,0% 4.0% 4.0%

Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 Dec-26 Dec-27 Dec-28

Dec-21 Dec-22 Dec-23 Dec-24 Dec-25 Dec-26 Dec-27 Dec-28

3.90% 4.12% 4.06% 3.98% 3.56% 3.87% 4.21% 5.20%

Dec-29 Dec-30 Dec-31 Dec-32 Dec-33 Dec-34 Dec-35 Dec-36

3.90% 3.40% 3.58% 5.63% 3.12% 3.32% 3.24% 3.15%

PROYECCIN DE DEMANDAS DE POTENCIA (MW) AL 2037

Carga: Diciembre de 2017 Generacion MW: Diciembre 2017

PROYECCIN DE DEMANDAS DE POTENCIA (MW) AL 2037

Proyeccin de Carga: Diciembre de 2037

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