Eid CR (6) 12149 FR Master Plan 02 PDF

Karachi Transportation Improvement Project Final Report
Chapter 4 Planning Frameworks

4.1 Introduction
In this chapter, various basic future indices are estimated, as fundamental factors, both for
urban transport planning and for future traffic demand forecasts.
These future indices consist of major three (3) items such as Socio-economic frames, Future
land use and Financial framework.
4.1.1 Socio-economic frameworks
Population, labour force, growth rate of GRDP, car/motorcycle ownership, school enrollment,
etc are forecasted as the fundamental factors for future traffic demands estimation. At first,
these variables of Karachi were estimated as the control totals and further major factors be
broke down into traffic zone level for traffic demand modeling.
4.1.2 Future land use
Future land use conceptual plan is prepared in order to plan basic transport networks both for
roads and mass transit system to cope with future urban development & economic activities.
Moreover, detailed population distribution by traffic zone is also estimated for the purpose of
traffic demand analysis, both of traffic generation and attraction.
4.1.3 Financial framework
The budget constraints for development in urban transport sector in Karachi were estimated
based on the past trends in the expenditures in the transport sector by CDGK, GOS, and GOP.
In addition to the above three, including traffic demands that are analyzed in other chapter.
Four items consist of major planning frameworks for urban transport plan as shown in Figure
4-1-1.
Future
Socioeconomic
Frames
Urban
Urban
Transport
Transport
Demand
Demands
Land Use Roads &
Development
(Spatial) Mass Transit
Budget
Structure Network
Source: Prepared by the JICA Study Team

Figure 4-1-1 Planning Frameworks
Page 4-1
Based on the year 2010 as present, main target years of 2020 and 2030 are set for short-term
and long-term plans, and moreover year 2025 is also estimated as supplemental medium-term,
if necessary.
Most of socio-economic frames are estimated both by Town/Cantonment and by Traffic
zone in order to analyze various traffic demands both at present and in the future.

Figure 4-1-2 Target Years for Planning
4.2 Socio-economic Framework
4.2.1 Total Population in Karachi
Population in Karachi City until 2020 was estimated in KSDP 2020. The Average Annual
Growth Rate (AAGR) after 2005 decreases by 0.5% every five years in the estimation by
KSDP 2020. The AAGR until 2030 was assumed by the following three patterns (Refer to
Table 4-2-1 and Figure 4-2-1).
Alternative A: AAGR (3.5%) until 2020 continues after 2020.
Alternative B: The trend until 2020 continues and AAGR decreases by 0.5% every five years.
Alternative C: AAGR indicates a half of Alternative B.
The relation between the population accumulation and AAGR of other populated cities all over
the world was plotted in Figure 4-2-2 to examine which pattern Karachi City took among those
alternatives A to C, and it was compared with the tendency after 2005 of Karachi City (Refer to
Figure 4-2-2). Until 2020, the population of Karachi City is estimated to move by the highest
growth rate all over the world. And after 2020, only alternative C is located within the range of
growth in other cities. The other A and B are the unexampled growth rates in any other cities.
Therefore, the Alternative C is taken for the growth rate of Karachi population after 2020 in
this study.
Page 4-2
Table 4-2-1 Annual Average Growth Rate (million)

(AAGR) 40
Alternative A 38.9
Alternative B
Alternative A Alternative B Alternative C Alternative C 36.1
35
Year KSDP2020
Rate in 2020 Trend of Half rate of 32.7
continues KSDP2020 Alternative B 31.9 31.6
2005 5.0% 30 29.7
2010 4.5% 27.6
2015 4.0% 25
23.1
2020 3.5%
2025 3.5% 3.0% 1.5% 20
18.9
2030 3.5% 2.5% 1.25%
Source: JICA Study Team/ KSDP 2020 15 15.1
10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035
Source: JICA Study Team
Figure 4-2-1 Estimation of Future Population
after 2020
Pupulation and Increase Ratio of 1950-2005

Alternative A
6.0% Alternative B
Karachi Alternative C
5.0% Delhi
Istanbul KSDP2020
Increase Ratio (2005/1950)
Seoul A
Sao Paulo
4.0% Hong Kong Jakarta
Manila
Mex ico City
3.0% Munbai B
Toky o
2.0%
C
1.0%
New York
0.0%
5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000
Population (Thousands)
Source: Tableaux de l'conomie Franaise
Figure 4-2-2 Population and Growth Ratio of Other Cities in the World
Comment by KMTC
The result of this projection was explained in several meetings during the study period such as
an expert meeting on 27th October, 2012, 2nd Technical Committees, and 2nd Joint Steering
Committees (see Appendix-1). The JICA Study Team considers the projection is proper for
the purpose of the transportation planning, but KMTC made a comment on the projection as:
Population projections that have been carried out in the study seem to be unrealistic in case of
Karachi. The reason being a latest report published by National Sustainable Development
Page 4-3
Strategy on the topic of Pathway to a sustainable Pakistan May 2012 suggests that almost
60% of the population of Pakistan is below 30 years. This leads to the fact that all these people
would get married in near future and would give birth to a new generation and hence the
population would be significantly increased. Now comparing the trend of population increase
in Karachi with Japan is unrealistic as the major chunk of population of Japan is above 60%
and hence there are more chances of the fact that the increase would get stagnant by the year
2030, however in case of Karachi this approach could be unrealistic.
Note that the JICA Study Team applied the same projection as KSDP 2020, which was the
official document of CDGK, after the review of the projection. Therefore, the projections in
KSDP 2020 and this study are the same up to 2020. Figure 4-2-1 shows that the population
projection after 2020 is not underestimate. Regarding population of the young generation,
Figure 4-2-3 shows that the population of the age group 0-5 years old is smaller than the group
of 6-10 years old.
4.2.2 Economically Active Population
As shown in the figure below, the economically active population that becomes the base of
employment is estimated by using such three factors as total population, distribution ratio by
age group and labour force participation rate by age.
Step 1: The population distribution ratio by age group until 2030 is estimated based on the both
ratios of Karachi City at 1998 (Refer to Figure 4-2-3) and of Pakistan from 1998 to 2030
(Refer to Figure 4-2-4).
Step 2: The population by age group of Karachi City in the future is calculated by multiplying
Karachi future population by distribution ratio by age group estimated in Step 1.
Step 3: The number of employment in the future is calculated by multiplying this population by
age group from Step 2 by labour force participation rate by age as shown in Figure 4-2-5
Total Population
In Karachi
Distribution Ratio
Distribution Ratio
by Age Group in
By Age Group in
Pakistan from 1998
Karachi at 1998
to 2030
(Figure 4-2-3) (Figure 4-2-4)
Population By Age
Group
Labor Force
Participation Rates
By Age in Pakistan
(Figure 4-2-5,6)
Economically
Active Population
(Table 4-2-2)
Page 4-4
(1) Distribution ratio by age group in Karachi at 1998
According to the 1998 population census, about 80% of the overall population consisted of age
groups at less than 25, and it was found that Karachi was remarkably a low-aged city.
Both
Age Group Male Female
Sexes
Population Pyramid of Karachi 00 -- 04 15.0% 17.3% 16.0%
Male Female 05 -- 09 15.8% 18.1% 16.9%

0 200,000 400,000 600,000 800,000
10 -- 14 15.7% 17.6% 16.6%
75 & Above
15 -- 20 14.9% 16.1% 15.4%
70 -- 74
20 -- 24 13.9% 13.6% 13.7%
65 -- 69
60 -- 64 25 -- 29 11.8% 11.0% 11.4%
55 -- 59 30 -- 34 10.1% 9.4% 9.8%

50 -- 54 35 -- 39 7.8% 7.6% 7.7%
45 -- 49
40 -- 44 7.1% 6.8% 7.0%
40 -- 44
45 -- 49 5.3% 5.0% 5.2%
35 -- 39
50 -- 54 4.5% 4.3% 4.4%
30 -- 34
25 -- 29 55 -- 59 3.0% 2.8% 2.9%
20 -- 24 60 -- 64 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

15 -- 20 65 -- 69 1.5% 1.4% 1.5%
10 -- 14 70 -- 74 1.1% 1.0% 1.1%
05 -- 09
75 & Above 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
00 -- 04
Total 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
800,000 600,000 400,000 200,000 0
Source: 1998 CENSUS

Figure 4-2-3 Population Pyramid of Karachi
(2) Composition by age group in Pakistan from 1998 to 2030
Figure 4-2-4 shows the projection of the composition of population by age group in Pakistan
from 1998 to 2030. This is the estimation by Pakistan Statistics Bureau. The population of
age group of ten years old or less was projected to decrease, while the population of age group
of 25 to 59 years old was projected to increase. That means that potential employment will
increase in the future.
Population by Age Groups
100%
3.5% 3.8% 4.1% 4.5% 5.0% 5.8%
90% 2.0% 2.1% 2.2% 2.4% 2.7% 3.1%
80% 31.7%
37.6% 39.4%
42.2% 44.4%
70%
46.2%
60%
9.0%
9.8%
50% 10.4% 10.3%
9.5%
8.8%
40% 11.3% 8.7%
10.5%
13.0% 9.5%
9.3%
30% 9.2% 65 & Above
11.5% 10.5% 10.1%
9.8% 60 - 64
9.5%
20% 25 - 59
30.5%
23.9% 23.0% 21.7% 20 - 24
10% 20.0% 17.6%
15 - 19
0% 10 - 14
1998 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Below 10
Year
Source: Planning & Development Division, June 2010
Figure 4-2-4 Population by Age Groups in Pakistan
Page 4-5
(3) Labour force participation rates
The labour force ratio (labour force / population) exceeds 50% in the age group of 20-59 years
old as shown in Figure 4-2-5. The labour participation rate of the woman is rather smaller
than that of the man as shown in Figure 4-2-6. If the womens participation in society
advances in the future, the number of employees will rapidly increase, and it becomes one of
the factors of the increase in traffic demand.
70.0 62.1 62.4 62.6 63.6

61.1
57.0 56.6
60.0 54.6
50.0
43.8
40.0
% 38.7
30.0
22.6
20.0
15.3
10.0
0.0
10 -- 14 15 -- 20 20 -- 24 25 -- 29 30 -- 34 35 -- 39 40 -- 44 45 -- 49 50 -- 54 55 -- 59 60 -- 64 65 & Over
Age Group
Source: Labour Force Survey 2008-2009
Figure 4-2-5 Labour Force Participation Rates (Both Sexes)
Male
Female
97.0 98.5 98.7 99.4 98.3 97.1
100.0
94.1
84.4
80.0
68.7
60.0 56.7
%
35.8
40.0
20.5 18.6 20.5 21.3 22.4 21.5 20.7 19.7

15.2
20.0 10.7
14.2
8.9 4.3
0.0
10 -- 14 15 -- 20 20 -- 24 25 -- 29 30 -- 34 35 -- 39 40 -- 44 45 -- 49 50 -- 54 55 -- 59 60 -- 64 65 &
Over
Age Group
Source: Labour Force Survey 2008-2009
Figure 4-2-6 Labour Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex
Page 4-6
(4) Economically active population
Table 4-2-2 shows the result of the estimation of economically active population in Karachi.
The labour force was estimated to increase from about 7.4 million in 2010 to about 13.7 million
in 2030, and the participation ratio was estimated to increase from 39.2% to 43.3%.
Table 4-2-2 Projection of Economically Active Population in Karachi
Age Group
Econ. Active/
Year
Below 10 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-59 60-64 65 & Above Total Population
3,604,834 2,051,982 2,347,764 2,088,955 7,986,094 332,754 517,617 18,930,000

2010 39.2%
- 314,770 907,650 1,141,410 4,791,440 145,810 116,930 7,418,010
4,215,702 2,267,930 2,637,632 2,682,719 10,212,368 428,333 676,316 23,130,000
2015 40.2%
- 349,280 1,019,710 1,465,840 6,123,210 187,700 152,780 9,299,000
4,738,921 2,623,810 2,837,998 2,945,092 12,958,406 562,245 883,528 27,550,000
2020 41.1%
- 402,490 1,097,170 1,609,200 7,775,150 246,380 199,590 11,330,000
4,687,829 2,732,171 2,991,008 2,904,729 14,638,682 661,473 1,064,109 29,680,000
2025 42.1%
- 419,110 1,156,320 1,587,140 8,801,240 289,860 240,380 12,494,000
4,367,447 2,809,826 3,115,242 3,054,159 16,156,499 794,081 1,282,747 31,580,000
2030 43.3%
- 431,030 1,204,350 1,668,790 9,747,400 347,970 289,770 13,689,000
Note: Upper = Population, Lower = Labour Force Participation
Source: Estimated by JICA Study Team
Table 4-2-3 shows the comparison between the estimation and the result of KMP 2020. The
participation rate in the estimation increases every year, while its rate in KMP 2020 decreases
every year. The participation rate should increase considering the economic growth in the
future. Therefore, the JICA Study Teams estimation is more appropriate than that of KMP
2020.
Moreover, it was assumed that the number of employments is equivalent between the working
place base and the residence base in this study.
Table 4-2-3 Comparison between KMP2020 and JICA Study Team
Result of Both Studies
KMP2020
Year Trend Predicted JICA Study
Employment Employment Team
2010 7,469,683 9,018,102 7,418,010
2015 8,342,307 10,326,734 9,299,000
2020 9,408,335 11,576,369 11,330,000
2025 - - 12,494,000
2030 - - 13,689,000
Participation Rate of Both Estimations
KMP2020
Year Population Trend Predicted JICA Study
Employment Employment Team
2010 18,930,000 39.5% 47.6% 39.2%
2015 23,130,000 36.1% 44.6% 40.2%
2020 27,550,000 34.2% 42.0% 41.1%
2030 31,580,000 - - 43.3%
Note: KMP 2020 = Karachi Master Plan -2020, Transport Sector Report
Source: KMP 2020, Estimation in KTIP
Page 4-7
4.2.3 Growth of GRDP in Karachi
As there are no sufficient data on Gross Regional Domestic Products of Karachi, but Pakistan
GDP, only growth rate tendency was estimated for the demand forecast.
Table 4-2-4 shows annul growth rates of GDP of Pakistan in the last 10 years. They fluctuate
widely from -3.7% to 15.5% by sector.
In accordance to discussions with chief economist of Planning & Development, Government of
Sindh, it is concluded that Pakistan GDP growth rate and Karachi GRDP growth rate might be
considered as same based on the following reasons:
About 99% of Pakistan agriculture activities are outside of Karachi,
More than 70% of small and medium industries are located outside of Karachi,
More than 70% of service industries are operating in Karachi,
Both agriculture and manufacturing contribute 25% and service sector 50% to total GDP.
Average annual growth rates of GDP were calculated using the time series data from 2000-01
to 2009-10 for the following two scenarios.
A) Simple average of 10 years,
B) 8 years average excluding both maximum and minimum data.
The average growth rate of (A) was calculated as 2.5% while that of (B) was calculated as
4.7%.
Table 4-2-4 Trends of GDP Growth(%), Pakistan
Average Average
2000-01 2001-02 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09R 2009-10P
(10 years) (8 years)
Gross Domestic Product 2.0 3.0 4.7 7.5 9.0 5.8 6.8 3.7 1.2 4.1 2.5 4.7
- Agliculture -2.2 0.1 4.1 2.4 6.5 6.3 4.1 1.0 4.0 2.0 1.5 2.2
- Manufacturing 9.3 4.5 6.9 14.0 15.5 8.7 8.3 4.8 -3.7 5.2 3.9 7.7
- Commodity Producing Sector 0.8 1.4 4.3 9.2 9.5 5.1 6.6 1.3 0.8 3.6 2.2 4.0
- Service Sector 3.1 4.8 5.2 5.9 8.5 6.5 7.0 6.0 1.6 4.6 2.8 5.4
Source: Economic Survey 2009-10
Page 4-8
4.2.4 Car Ownership
(1) Car ownership of Karachi in last 20 years
Figure 4-2-7 shows the car ownership in Karachi from 1988 to 2010 (left chart: passenger cars,
right chart: motorcycle). After 2003, car ownership in Karachi demonstrates an upward trend.
Especially the growth rate of motorcycle is remarkably high.
Vehicle Registration and Ownership Motorcycle Registration and Ownership
1,000,000 60.0
1,200,000 60.0
900,000
50.0
800,000 1,000,000 50.0
700,000
Ownership (/1,000pers)
40.0
Ownership (/1,000pers)
No. of Passenger Car
600,000 800,000 40.0
No. of Motorcycle
500,000 30.0
600,000 30.0
400,000
20.0
300,000 400,000 20.0
200,000
10.0
100,000 200,000 10.0
0 0.0
0 0.0
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Year
Year
No. fo Passenger cars Ownership No. fo Motorcycle Ownership
Source: Prepared by the JICA Study Team based on data from Excise and Taxation Department, CDGK
Figure 4-2-7 Car Ownership in Karachi from 1988 to 2010
(2) Estimation of Number of Vehicles
The registered numbers of private cars and motorcycles in the future were forecasted based on
the linear regression method with the actual number from 1988 to 2010. The registered
numbers of private cars and motorcycles in 2030 were estimated at 2.65 million and 3.642
million, respectively as shown in Table 4-2-5. The registered number of cars and motorcycles
per 1,000 people in 2030 were estimated at 83.9 and 115.3, respectively, which would be 1.71
and 2.02 times the number in 2010.
Table 4-2-5 Future Car / Motorcycle Ownership
Car Motorcycle
Ownership Ownership
Registered Number (veh./1,000 Registered Number (veh./1,000
population) population)
2010 939,000 49.7 896,000 47.4
2020 1,665,000 60.0 2,021,000 72.8
2025 2,125,000 71.6 2,769,000 93.3
2030 2,650,000 83.9 3,642,000 115.3
Source: JICA Study Team Estimation
Page 4-9
Source: Estimated by the JICA Study Team

Figure 4-2-8 Registered Number of Vehicles and Motorcycles
Page 4-10
4.2.5 Number of Students
The number of schools and students of public primary and secondary schools were 3,593
schools and 575,950 enrollments in 2009-10 as shown in Table 4-2-6. Those of private
schools were 3,822 schools and 963,258 enrollments in 2000 as shown in Table 4-2-7. The
latest data of private schools after 2000 was not available. Although the data of private
schools is older, it can be said that the number of schools and enrollments of private sector are
larger than the public sector. The number of enrollments in 2010 was estimated at 1,593,700
in primary schools and at 679,400 in secondary school, respectively, assuming the annual
growth rates of 5.8% and 5.2%, respectively as shown in Table 4-2-8.
Table 4-2-6 Number of School and Enrollment by SEMIS (2009-10)

No. Town No. of Schools Enrollment
Primary Secondary Higher Primary Secondary Higher
1 Baldia 89 18 0 13,292 4,063 0
2 Bin Qasim 160 38 1 16,111 5,407 505
3 Gadap 409 66 4 39,157 6,711 2,256
4 Gulberg 98 38 4 12,853 6,783 1,724
5 Gulshan 88 32 1 13,528 7,041 618
6 Jamshed 172 76 5 24,699 16,835 1,736
7 Keamari 155 36 0 18,736 5,459 0
8 Korangi 107 43 2 27,141 19,167 1,005
9 Landhi 161 41 2 22,243 11,622 1,356
10 Liaquatabad 153 81 4 26,523 17,898 3,026
11 Lyari 209 49 1 25,466 12,146 444
12 Malir 148 53 0 21,257 15,528 0
13 New Karachi 174 48 0 31,697 20,229 0
14 North Nazimabad 86 33 1 13,056 5,355 1,752
15 Orangi 139 28 2 22,176 9,343 1,279
16 Saddar 193 76 4 21,586 10,338 809
17 Sha Faisal 99 38 1 12,925 10,769 810
18 SITE 123 36 2 20,042 8,768 600
TOTAL 2,763 830 34 382,488 193,462 17,920
Source: Sindh Educational Bureau
Table 4-2-7 Private Educational Institutions and Enrollment (2000)

No. of Schools Enrollment
Primary Secondary Total Primary Secondary Total
1,419 2,403 3,822 676,589 286,669 963,258
Source: Year Book 2009, Federal Bureau of Statistics
Table 4-2-8 Number of Students in Karachi

Public School Private School Total
Primary Secondary Primary Secondary Primary Secondary
2000 676,589 286,669
2009 382,488 193,462
2010 404,672 203,522 1,188,999 475,925 1,593,672 679,447
Remarks 5.8%/year 5.2%/year 5.8%/year 5.2%/year
Source: Estimation of JICA Study Team
Page 4-11
Table 4-2-9 shows the estimation of the number of enrollments in 2010 based on the statistics
data and the available information.
It was estimated that the number of enrollments was 2,545,000 in 2010, which was 38% of the
school age population. The percentages were 86.0% in primary schools, 31.3% in secondary
schools, 18.3% in tertiary schools, and 5.8% in universities.
Although the percentage of enrollments to the school age population is low for all stages, it will
increase in the future. The future percentage of enrollments to the school age population in
each stage of education was estimated as shown in Table 4-2-10. For example, the percentage
will improve from 31.3% in 2010 to 80.0% in 2030. For university, it will double from 6.5%
to 13.0%. School age population was calculated by the total population of the city and the
percentage of school age.
The number of enrollments in 2030 was estimated by multiplying the school age population
and the percentage of enrollments.
Table 4-2-9 Estimation of Enrollments in 2010
Percentage of No. of School Percentage of
Enrollments
School Age Age Enrollments
Primary 9.8% 1,854,100 86.0% 1,593,700
Secondary 11.5% 2,172,400 31.3% 679,400
Tertiary 5.0% 940,000 18.3% 172,500
University 8.1% 1,526,000 6.5% 99,200
Total 35.4% 6,691,100 38.0% 2,544,800
Table 4-2-10 Estimation of Enrollments in 2030

Percentage of No. of School Percentage of
Enrollments
School Age Age Enrollments
Primary 7.9% 2,482,400 100.0% 2,482,400
Secondary 9.3% 2,934,800 80.0% 2,347,840
Tertiary 3.9% 1,247,300 50.0% 623,650
University 7.8% 2,457,900 13.0% 319,527
Total 28.9% 9,122,400 63.3% 5,773,417
Page 4-12
4.3 Land Use Plan
4.3.1 Basic Concept for Future Land Use
(1) Schematic urban structures
Karachi faces rapid population growth with an annual increase rate of 4.2% in the last five
years, and the present population (2010) was estimated at 18.9 million. The population will
be 27.5 million in 2020 and 31.6 million in 2030. This will bring about the expansion of the
city size. There are two alternatives of the urbanization pattern to cope with the
above-mentioned very strong urban growth pressures.
One is so called natural urban sprawl pattern.
Arterial roads, especially in radial directions from the old city center towards every hinterland
except for Arabian Sea, are rather well developed in Karachi, such as RCD Highway, Chaudry
Faisal Ellahi Road, University Road, Shahra-e-Faisal & National Highway, and Korangi Road.
Therefore, its urban growth is easy to follow the natural spread and sprawl pattern along these
arterial roads. The historical urban growths clearly indicate this pattern since the
independence, and urbanized area already expanded within 10 to 15km radius area.
Judging from the efficiency of urban activity, especially in urban traffic movements, this urban
structure causes a variety of disadvantages and results in serious stagnation of urban activities
in case of large scale metropolitan area.
As historical urbanization in Karachi basically succeeds such a pattern, it is not so easy to
divert its tendency drastically both in future.
However, it is necessary to aim at better development pattern in order to cope with a huge
amount of increasing population in future, keeping proper urban economic activities.
In order to avoid such disadvantages caused by free sprawl development without proper
planning, another alternative development pattern will be recommended following the existing
urban structure of Karachi; that is, Multi-Satellite City Cores Development pattern. For this
development pattern, it is inevitable to strengthen the circumferential transport network
together with radial corridors and also to create the satellite urban cores for dispersal of various
urban functions that were located within the old CBD area.
A schematic diagram is illustrated in Figure 4-3-1.
Natural Sprawl Development without Multi-Satellite City Cores Development

Proper Planning
Source: JICA Study Team

Figure 4-3-1 Schematic Urban Structures
Page 4-13
(2) Future urban structure of Karachi
The future urban structure was formulated based on the Multi-Satellite City Cores
Development pattern as shown in Figure 4-3-3. This will be a basic guideline of future urban
development of Karachi. The urban transport network including roads and mass transit
systems was examined in accordance with this development guideline.
Bu s in e s s / Co m m e rcia l Co re s
Ed u ca tio n (In s tit u t io n ) Co re s
In d u s tria l Co re s
Ra d ia l Ro a d Co rrid o r
Circu m fe re n tia l Ro a d Co rrid o r
Ra d ia l Ma s s - Tra n s it Co rrid o r
Circu m fe re n tia l m a s s - Tra n s it Co rrid o r

Figure 4-3-2 Future Urban Structure, Karachi (2030)
4.3.2 Future Land Use Planning
In accordance with the future socio-economic framework examined in the previous section, the
future land use plan for 2030 was formulated as one of most important urban transport planning
frameworks.
As the fundamental future land use plan for the year 2020 was established and legally approved
in KSDP 2020, basic plan and planning directions of the land use plan in 2030 followed KSDP
2020 in line with its concept. Therefore, the land use plan in this study completely follows for
2020, and some additional examinations are considered for the year 2030.
Considering the results of various discussions with some experts of urban planning in Karachi,
such as urban planners, urban consultants, EDO (T&C), NGO on urban planning, senior
research economist, Prof. NED University, EDO (works), etc., following planning directions
were applied.
To follow KSDP 2020 policies,
Prevention of new expansions outside of KSDP 2020 urbanization boundary in principle,
High density development in Inner-city and Core areas,
Densification and infilling within KSDP 2020 urbanization boundary.
Page 4-14
(1) Urbanization Area for 2030
At first, total necessary land area for urban development in the year 2030 was estimated.
The general population density of Karachi (population density against the total urban area
excluding agricultural use and water-bodies) in 2010 was calculated at 238 persons/ha. This
can be considered as the gross density because the area include some vacant land sites,
under-developing estates, transport facilities, industrial areas, institutions, etc within the urban
area of Karachi. This population density in Karachi, which is as same as Mumbai in India, is
rather high comparing to other major cities in the world.
Since this higher population density is one of significant characteristics of Karachi, very poor
living environment, it would decrease even at very slow pace in the future in accordance with
economic development and improvement of living quality.
When future density is assumed as 200 persons/ha (about 20% less), 158,000 ha of urbanization
area is required for the estimated population of 31,600 thousand in 2030. It will account for
almost double of present urbanized area.
This area is enough within the urbanization promotion area planned in KSDP 2020, and it is
rather rational, considering the basic our planning policies mentioned above.
Table 4-3-1 Necessary Urbanization Area
2010 2030
Population 18,935,000 31,600,000
Urbanization Area (ha) 79,567 158,000
Gross Population Density (person/ha) 238 200
Note: (excluding Agriculture use & Water-bodies)
Source: JICA Study Team (KTIP)
TownUC_boundary
Town Boundary Kirthar_National_Park
Urbanization Area
Agriculutural
Gadap
New Karachi
Malir Cannt
Orangi N.Nazimabad
Baldia
Gulberg Gulshan Iqba
SITE
Keamari Liaquatabad
Fasial Cantt
Malir
Shah Faisal
Lyari Bin Qasim
Jamshed
Saddar
Karachi Cant
Korangi Landhi
Manora Cantt Clifton Cant Korangi Cant
Source: Land Use Survey by the JICA Study Team (KTIP)

Figure 4-3-3 Urbanized Area (2010)
Page 4-15
Kirthar_National_Park
Urbanization border
TownUC_boundary
Town Boundary Gadap
Urbanization Area
Agriculutural
New Karachi
Malir Cannt
Orangi N.Nazimabad
Baldia
Keamari SITE Liaquatabad Fasial Cantt

Malir
Lyari
Shah Faisal Bin Qasim
Saddar Jamshed
Karachi Cant
Korangi Landhi
Source: Elaborated by the JICA Study Team (KTIP)

Figure 4-3-4 Urbanization Area (2030)
(2) Basic Policies for Major Land Use Allocation
The urbanization area has been broken down into major land use category based on the
following policies which follows the policies in KSDP 2020.
In order to cope with a huge amount of increasing population from 2010 to 2030, the spatial
needs for housing will be provided through a set of spatial growth strategy.
i) Densification: Saddar, Jamshed, North Nazimabad, Gulberg, SITE and Sha Faisal Towns.
ii) Densification and Infill: Gulshan-e-Iqbal, Landhi, Korangi, New Karachi Towns, DHA
and Cantonments.
iii) Infill and Expansion: Baldia, Malir and Orangi Towns, new development schemes in
Gadap, Keamari and Bin Qasim Towns.
iv) Status Quo: Lyari and Liaqatabad Towns.
Regenerating the inner city urban functions by mixed use promotion and vertical development
and densification.
Development of new urban centres.
Industrial complex developments together with logistic functions in the area of Bin Qasim and
along Northern Bypass.
Considerations to various large-scale urban development plans.
Page 4-16
(3) Examples of large-scale urban development
Some Large-scale urban developments such as DHA City Karachi, Education City, Textile City,
Naya Nazimabad, etc. are planned in Karachi metropolitan area, and they are also taken into
consideration for future urban development.
4.3.3 Land Use Plan in 2030
Figure 4-3-5 illustrates the final result of future land use for 2030.
This figure shows representative land use by UC. Since units of UC are rather large especially
in the surrounding three Towns, such as Gadap, Bin Qasim and Keamari, all the area of UC
might not be developed in the same density.
Page 4-17
Residential
Residential(Mix)
Commercial
Commercial(Mix)
Warehouse/Whole Sale Marlet
Institution
Recreation
Industrial Gadap
Industrial(Mix)
Agricultural
Restricted Area
New Karachi
Orangi Malir Cannt

Baldia N.Nazimabad
Keamari SITE
Liaquatabad
Fasial Cantt
Malir
Shah Faisal
Lyari Bin Qasim
Jamshed
Saddar
Karachi Cant
Landhi
Korangi
Manora Cantt Clifton Cant

Korangi Cant
Source: KTIP
Figure 4-3-5 Future Land Use Plan, 2030
Page 4-18
4.3.4 Distribution of Future Population
The Distribution of the future population is examined based on the future land use plan and
spatial growth strategies. Spatial changes will occur across the metropolitan area through a
development process based on the following four (4) spatial growth strategies by town. The
target of this strategy is from 2010 to 2030.
(1) Spatial growth strategies
1) Densification
Through floor addition, high-rise development in designated areas, walkup apartments and
subdivision of large plots, densification will result in a considerable increase in space use
for housing, and business, offices and other uses. Although the process will occur in all
towns in varying degree, it will be increasingly prevalent in three towns, namely Saddar,
Jamshed, Karachi cantonment.
2) Densification and Infill
A combination of densification and infill process (occupation of vacant land for various
land uses) will intensify to accommodate future growth. Changes will take place more
through densification than infill. The process will occur particularly in ten towns and three
cantonment, namely Gulshan-e-Iqbal, Landhi, Korangi, New Karachi, North Nazimabad,
Gulberg, SITE, Shah Faisal, Baldia, Malir, Orangi Towns, and Clifton, Korangi, Faisal
cantonment.
3) Infill and Expansion
Infill along with expansion will proceed to achieve growth in varying degrees. Growth
will be higher in Malir cantonment; expansion will occur in Gadap Town, Keamari and
Bin-Qasim through the development of new schemes in the public and private sectors.
4) Status Quo:
Population density is already high in Lyari and Liaqatabad Towns. The recommended
strategy is, therefore, to maintain the status quo and also no increase in the existing density
should be allowed.
Densification
Densification and Infill
Infill and Expansion
Gadap
Status Quo
New Karachi
Orangi Malir Cannt

Baldia N.Nazimabad
Keamari SITE Liaquatabad

Fasial Cantt
Malir
Lyari Shah Faisal
Jamshed Bin Qasim
Saddar
Karachi Cant
Korangi Landhi
Source: Proposed in KTIP

Figure 4-3-6 Spatial growth strategies from 2010 to 2030
Page 4-19
(2) Assumed Population Density by Land Use
Basic considerations for future population density are summarized as follows:

1) Residential Land Use
- 200 person/ha: Most of residential areas in future urbanization area, judging from the
existing population density for medium income level.
- 750 person/ha: Since the area where major parts of UC are occupied by Katchi Abadis
have very high density of over 1,000 person/ha, future population density will be
improved up to 750 person/ha.
2) Commercial Land Use

- 200 1,500 person/ha: For commercial land use areas, various levels of population
density are examined, in accordance with current population densities.
- Possible developments are considered such as high rise / high-density mixed use
especially in the corridor area of arterial road. Also, same level of density is applied for
newly developed satellite cores.
3) Industrial Land Use

- 25 50 person/ha: For industrial area.
- 50 200 person/ha: For mixed use area with industrial.
Table 4-3-2 Standards of Population Density by Land Use Category

Unitperson / ha
Existing urbanized area
Future urbanization
Land Use Categories Existing
area Vacant
urban area
Residential 200 status quo 200
100 status quo 100
Mix residential Area where major parts of UC are occupied by Katchi Abadis
over 750 person/ha, future population density will be improved
up to 750 person/ha.
According to a current population
Commercial 500
density, 200, 500, 1,000, 1,500
Mix Commercial 1,000 status quo
Institution 50 status quo
Industrial 25 50
Mix Industrial 50 200
Warehouse 25 -
Recreation 5 -
Source: Prepared in KTIP
(5) Distribution of future population
Population by UC is estimated by population density based on Land Use Plan. Work flow for
the estimation of population by UC is illustrated in figure 4-3-7. Result of population by town
is shown in Table 4-3-3 and Figure 4-3-8. The trend of population density from 2010 to 2030
is illustrated in figure 4-3-9, 4-3-10 and 4-3-11.
Page 4-20
Land Use (2020,2030)
Population Density
(2020,2030)
UC Area
Tentative Population by Tentative Population by

UC UC3
Spatial growth strategies
Control total by
Town Population Town Population Control total by
in KSDP2020 3 Town Population(2030)
Population by UC Population by UC
2 3
Source: KTIP
Figure 4-3-7 Work flow for the estimation of population by UC
Table 4-3-3 Future Population by Town / Cantonment

Town 2010 2020 2020/2010 2030 2030/2010
1 Keamari 762,000 1,914,000 2.51 2,290,000 3.01
2 S.I.T.E 854,000 895,000 1.05 895,000 1.05
3 BALDIA 864,000 1,110,000 1.28 1,110,000 1.28
4 ORANGI 1,338,000 1,429,000 1.07 1,523,000 1.14
5 LYARI 939,000 969,000 1.03 969,000 1.03
6 SADDAR 1,104,000 1,123,000 1.02 1,233,000 1.12
7 JAMSHED 1,397,000 1,560,000 1.12 1,713,000 1.23
8 GULSHAN-E-IQBAL 1,458,000 2,373,000 1.63 2,684,000 1.84
9 SHAH FAISAL 602,000 612,000 1.02 647,000 1.07
10 LANDHI 1,353,000 1,822,000 1.35 1,822,000 1.35
11 KORANGI 1,286,000 1,826,000 1.42 1,826,000 1.42
12 NORTH NAZIMABAD 917,000 979,000 1.07 1,044,000 1.14
13 NEW KARACHI 1,226,000 1,247,000 1.02 1,328,000 1.08
14 GULBERG 838,000 895,000 1.07 954,000 1.14
15 LIAQUATABAD 1,002,000 1,035,000 1.03 1,035,000 1.03
16 MALIR 781,000 907,000 1.16 937,000 1.20
17 BIN QASIM 518,000 2,032,000 3.92 2,697,000 5.21
GADAP West 263,000 1,058,000 4.02 1,715,000 6.52
GADAP Central 146,000 1,512,000 10.36 2,522,000 17.27
18
GADAP East 128,000 508,000 3.97 823,000 6.43
GADAP Total 537,000 3,078,000 5.73 5,060,000 9.42
19 Karachi Cantonment 88,000 90,000 1.02 96,000 1.09
20 Clifton Cantonment 559,000 771,000 1.38 821,000 1.47
21 Faisal Cantonment 248,000 352,000 1.42 363,000 1.46
22 Malir Cantonment 206,000 400,000 1.94 414,000 2.01
23 Manora Cantonment 10,000 10,000 1.00 10,000 1.00
24 Korangi Cantonment 47,000 122,000 2.60 130,000 2.77
Total 18,934,000 27,551,000 1.46 31,601,000 1.67
Source: Estimated in KTIP
Page 4-21
0.5/1.0/1.5 million
10/20/30
18Gadap
18Gadap_cenral
18Gadap_west
13New Karachi
12N.Nazimabad
18Gadap_east
4Orangi 22Malir
3Baldia 14Gulberg
8Gulshan Iqba
1Keamari
2SITE 15Liaquatabad 21Fasial
16Malir
9Shah Faisal
5Lyari 6Saddar 7Jamshed 17Bin Qasim
19Karachi
11Korangi 10Landhi
23Manora
20Clifton 24Korangi
Source: Projection in KTIP

Figure 4-3-8 Future Population growth by Town / Cantonment (2010, 2020 2030)
Page 4-22
Persons/ha
- 10
10 -
50 -
100 -
250 -
500 -
750 -
1000 -
1500 -
2000 -
Figure 4-3-9 Population density by UC in 2010

Persons/ha
- 10
10 -
50 -
100 -
250 -
500 -
750 -
1000 -
1500 -
2000 -

Persons/ha
- 10
10 -
50 -
100 -
250 -
500 -
750 -
1000 -
1500 -
2000 -

Source: KTIP (Figure 4-3-10, 11, and 12)
Page 4-23
4.4 Financial Framework
4.4.1 Government Budget
(1) City District Government Karachi (CDGK)
Table 4-4-1 shows the receipts for the CDGK budget in 2010-11. The total receipts for
CDGK account for 53,958 million, in which the receipts for Water & Sanitation Department
(KW&SB) account for Rs. 14.5 million, and that of Funds for Developed Departments (GOS)
through Single Line Transfer System account for Rs. 17,329 million. The rest of Rs. 22,031
million is for the general budget, in which current receipts and capital receipts account for Rs.
20,783 million and Rs. 1,248 million respectively.
Table 4-4-1 CDGK Budget at Glance 2010-11 (Receipts)
Unit: Rs. Million
Receipts Amount
Current Receipts. 20,782.78
Capital Receipts. 1,247.88
Sub-Total 22,030.64
Water & Sanitation Department (KW&SB) 14,597.80
Funds for Devolved Departments (GOS) through Single Line
17,329.96
Transfer System (Salary, Non Salary & ADP)
Total Receipts 53,958.40
Source: CDGK Budget 2010-2011 Highlights
The trend of the receipts for general budget of CDGK is shown in Figure 4-4-1.
Unit: Rs. million
30,000
Current Receipts Caital Receipts Total
25,000
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0
2004-05 2005-06 2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11
Source: CDGK Budget Highlights

Figure 4-4-1 CDGK Budget Receipts (Current Receipts and Capital Receipts)
Table 4-4-2 shows the source of receipts for the budget of CDGK in 2010-11. The CDGK
revenue of Rs. 7,648 million is the major source of the receipt for the general budget,
accounting for 34.7% of the total. The amount of grants and releases from the Government is
Rs. 5,982 million, which account for 27.2%.
Page 4-24
Table 4-4-2 Summary of CDGK Budget (2010-2011)

(Unit: Rs. Million )
S. No. Group of Offices / Departments 2010 2011 %
1 Revenue 7,648.34 34.72
2 Grants / Releases from Government. 5,981.72 27.15
3 Dues of defunct KMC/KDA against KESC. 1,983.06 9.00
4 Municipal Services 1,512.00 6.86
5 Master Plan 1,266.32 5.75
6 Transfer of income from KBCA 1,000.00 4.54
7 Works & Services 805.33 3.66
8 Finance & Planning 814.92 3.70
9 Enterprise & Investment Promotion 567.30 2.58
10 Coordination 135.55 0.62
11 Transport & Communication 129.10 0.59
12 Community Development 85.49 0.39
13 Health 54.37 0.25
14 Karachi Mass Transit Cell 46.43 0.21
15 Information Technology 0.70 0.00
Total 22,030.64 100.00
16 Water & Sanitation Department (KW&SB) 14,597.80
17 Funds for Devolved Departments, GOS through Single 17,329.96
Line Transfer System (Salary, Non Salary & ADP)
Grand Total 53958.40
Table 4-4-3 shows the expenditure of CDGK in 2010-11. CDGK will spend Rs. 10,436
million as Development Expenditure. This is the scale of the budget for the infrastructure
development in Karachi at present, which is so small that it is difficult to allocate a part of
budget to the mass transit development.
Table 4-4-3 CDGK Budget at Glance 2010-11 (Expenditure)
(Unit: Rs. Million )
EXPENDITURE Amount
Establishment 7,263.40
Contingent 1,488.33
Repair & Maintenance 294.29
Development Expenditure 10,436.29
Funds / Share to Towns &Union Councils 2,463.95
Sub-Total (1) 21,946.26
Water & Sanitation Department (KW&SB)
(i) Current Expenditure. 6,760.86
(ii) Development Expenditure. 7,836.94
Sub-Total (2) 14,597.80
Funds for Devolved Departments, GOS through Single Line Transfer
System
(I) Salary & Non Salary 13,929.96
(II) District ADP. 3,400.00
Sub-Total (3) 17,329.96
Total Expenditure (1) + (2) + (3) 53,874.02
Surplus (+) 84.38
Page 4-25
The trend of the total expenditure and development expenditure for general budget of CDGK is
shown in Figure 4-4-2.
(Rs. Million) CDGK Budget

80000 50%
70000 44.1%
40%
60000 38.0%
35.4%
50000
30%
40000 25.7%
20%
30000
20000
10%
10000
0 0%
2001- 2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010-
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Expenditure Development Expenditure Rate of Development Expenditure
Note: Total expenditures in 2003-04 and 2008-09 dont include KW&SB.

Source: CDGK Budget Highlights
Figure 4-4-2 CDGK Budget Total Expenditure and Development Expenditure
(2) Government of Sindh (GOS)
Table 4-4-4 shows the budget of GOS in 2010-11. The total receipt accounts for Rs. 366,374
million, in which current revenue receipt and current capital receipt account for Rs. 340,244
million and Rs. 26,130 million, respectively.
Table 4-4-4 GOS Budget
(Rs. Million )
BUDGET
CURRENT BUDGET
ESTIMATES
A. CURRENT REVENUE RECEIPTS

Federal Tax Assignment
A1. Revenue Assignment 207274.64
A2. Special Grant (Grant-in-Aid) 0.00
A3. Provincial Receipts 50500.00
A4. Provincial Sales Tax on Services 25000.00
A5. Straight Transfers 51209.00
A6. District Support Grant (including Other Grants) 5572.35
A7. Production Bonus (Special Grant) 678.58
Sub-Total (A1 to A7) A 340244.18
B. CURRENT REVENUE EXPENDITURE
B1. Provincial Government 147451.86
Page 4-26
B2. Local Governments (DGs, TMAs, UAs) 120815.41

Sub-Total (B1+ B2) B 268267.27
C. CURRENT CAPITAL RECEIPTS
C1. Local Repayments 6731.98
C2. SDSSP 0.00
C3. DPC/SWAP, World Bank 8148.00
C4. European Commission Grant 918.00
C5. ADB Funding 10332.00
Sub-Total (C1 to C5) ( C 26129.98
D. CURRENT CAPITAL EXPENDITURE
D1. Current Capital Expenditure 1898.10
Sub-Total (D1) ( D 1898.10
Total(A+C) ( AC 366374.15
Total(B+D) ( BD 287165.37
AC-BD 79208.79
Source: GOS Budget at a Glance
The trend of the receipts for general budget of GOS is shown in Figure 4-4-3.
CurrentReceipts CaitalReceipts TotalReceipts

(Rs. Million)
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
200607 200708 200809 200910 201011
Figure 4-4-3 GOS Budget Receipts (Current Receipts and Capital Receipts)
The trend of the total expenditure and development expenditure for general budget of GOS is shown
in Figure 4-4-4.
Page 4-27
(Rs. Million) GOS Budget

400000 50%
40%
300000
30%
200000
20%
100000
10%
0 0%
2004-2005 2005-2006 2006-2007 2007-2008 2008-2009 2009-2010
Total Expenditure Total Development Outlay Share of Development Outlay

Figure 4-4-4 CDGK Budget Total Expenditure and Development Expenditure
(3) Federal Government
Table 4-4-5 shows the receipts for the federal government budget in 2010-11. Of total internal
receipts of Rs. 2,574,884 million, the tax revenue receipt is Rs. 1,778,715 million or 69.1%, and
non-tax receipts are Rs. 632,279 million or 24.6%.
The total revenue receipts, which totalled tax revenue receipt and non-tax receipts account for Rs.
2,410,994 million or 93.6%.
Table 4-4-5 Federal Government Budget 2010-2011 Receipts

(Rs. Million)
Budget Estimates
code Description
2010-11
Federal Consolidated Fund (5+6) 2,961,504
1 Tax Revenue Receipts 1,778,715
Direct Taxes 657,700
Indirect Taxes 1,121,015
2 Non-Tax Receipts 632,279
Income from Property and Enterprise 169,985
Receipts from Civil Administration etc. 332,250
Miscellaneous Receipts 130,044
3 Total Revenue Receipts (1+2) 2,410,994
4 Capital Receipts 163,890
Recovery of Loans and Advances 47,460
Domestic Debt Receipts (Net) 116,430
5 Total Internal Receipts (3+4) 2,574,884
6 External Receipts 386,620
Loans 286,934
Grants 99,686
7 Public Accounts Receipts (Net) 216,144
Deferred Liabilities (Net) 215,014
Deposit and Reserves (Net) 1,130
8 Gross Federal Resources (5+6+7) 3,177,647
Page 4-28
9 Less Provincial Share in Federal Taxes 1,033,643

10 Net Federal Resources (8-9) 2,144,004
11 Cash Balance built up by the Provinces 166,925
12 Privatization Proceeds -
13 Credit from Banking Sector 166,544
14 Total-Resources (10+11+12+13) 2,477,472
Source: Ministry of Finance & Revenue
Table 4-4-6 shows the receipts for the federal government budget for expenditure in 2010-11. Of
total expenditure of Rs. 2,477,472 million, total development expenditure is Rs. 444,930 million,
accounting for 18.0%.
Table 4-4-6 Federal Government Budget 2010-11 Expenditure

(Rs in million)
Budget
code Description Estimates
2010-11
Current Expenditure on Revenue Account
01 General Public Services 1,387,664
02 Defence Affairs and Services 442,173
03 Public Order and Safety Affairs 51,263
04 Economic Affairs 66,897
05 Environment Protection 448
06 Housing and Community Amenities 1,842
07 Health 7,293
08 Recreation, Culture and Religion 4,359
09 Education Affairs and Services 34,500
10 Social Protection 1,463
a. Current Exp. on Revenue Account 1,997,892
b. Current Exp. on Capital Account 54,650
1 Total Current Expenditure (a + b) 2,052,542
c. Dev. Exp. on Revenue Account (i+ii) 311,885
i. Dev. Exp. on Revenue Account (PSDP) 188,340
ii. Other Dev. Exp. on Revenue Account 123,545
d. Dev. Expenditure on Capital Account 321,385
(Total Public Sector Dev. Program) (i+d) 321,385
2 Total Development Expenditure (c + d) 444,930
3 Estimated Operational Shortfall in PSDP (20,000)
Total - Expenditure (1+2+3) 2,477,472
4 Break-up of Expenditure
Revenue Account (a+c) 2,309,777
Capital Account (b+d) 187,695
Estimated Operational Shortfall in PSDP (20,000)
Total Expenditure 2,477,472
Source: Ministry of Finance & Revenue
The trend of revenues for general budget of the federal government is shown in Figure 4-4-5.
Page 4-29
(Rs. Million) TotalRevenues TaxRevenues NonTaxRevenues

2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
20022003 20032004 20042005 20052006 20062007 20072008 20082009 20092010
Source: Budget Wing, Finance Division, Islamabad

Figure 4-4-5 Federal Government Budget Revenues (Tax Revenues and Non-Tax Revenues)
The trend of the total expenditure and development expenditure for general budget of the federal
government is shown in Figure 4-4-6.
(Rs. Million) Federal Budget

3,000,000 30%
26.0%
2,500,000
24.1%
20.4% 19.9%
2,000,000 20%
19.0%
16.8%
1,500,000
14.4%
12.6%
12.6%
1,000,000 10%
500,000
0 0%
2002- 2003- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 2008- 2009- 2010-
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Total Expenditure Development Expenditure Rate of Development Expenditure
Source: Budget Wing, Finance Division, Islamabad

Figure 4-4-6 Federal Government Budget Total Expenditure and Development Expenditure
Page 4-30
4.4.2 Investment for Transport Sector in Karachi
(1) Investment for transport sector of CDGK
CDGK completed 181 projects in the transport sector for the last five years (2004-2009) with
the total cost of Rs. 13,364 million as shown in Table 4-4-7. This total amount accounts for
6.58% of the total expenditure of CDGK during 2004-2009.
There are 246 on-going projects (Rs. 23,239 million) by Work and Services Group, CDGK as
shown in Table 4-4-8. CDGK plans to carry out 43 projects with the total cost of Rs. 25,327
million from 2010 to 2013 for the transport sector as shown in Table 4-4-9.
Table 4-4-7 Work Completed (2004-09) by Work and Services Group, CDGK
SCHEME NUMBER COST (Rs. in Million)
Bridges and Flyovers 11 3,394.720
Building Works 23 692.784
Drainage Work 12 267.418
Road Works(about 4000Kms) 126 7,231.792
Rural Drainage Schemes 3 71.765
Rural Water Supply Schemes 2 37.796
Underpasses 4 1,668.000
Grand Total 181 13,364.275
Source: Work and Service Group, CDGK
Table 4-4-8 CDGK Sector-wise Progress of Development

(Rs in Million)
SCHEME Sector/Sub Sector NUMBER COST
T&C-Roads
Provincial(ADP)-Umbrellas Ph- 11 2,126.000
PP&H-Drains
Provincial(ADP)-Natural Nallahs PP&H-Drain 12 943.405
Provincial(ADP)-Bin Qasim Town T&C-Road 6 324.293
PP&H
T&C
Provincial(ADP)-Lyari Package 14 428.430
Education
Health
Provincial(ADP)-Spl Package (New) T&C-Bridges 6 1,262.497
Provincial(ADP)-Umbrellas Ph- T&C-Road 43 1,880.473
T&C-Bridges
Provincial(ADP)-Spl Package (On-Going) 7 1,323.177
T&C-Roads
T&C-Bridges
Provincial(ADP)-Other Works 17 5,900.859
T&C-Roads
T&C
PP&H
CDGK Allocations 71 3,149.992
Health
Education
District(ADP) T&C-Road 55 3,851.997
T&C-Bridges
Fereral PSDP 4 2,047.950
PP&H-Drains
Grand Total 246 23,239.073
Table 4-4-9 CDGK proposal works (2010-13)
(Rs in Million)
SCHEME NUMBER COST
Bridges and Flyover 7 4,750.000
Nallah and Drains 2 1,600.000
Roards 34 18,976.620
Grand Total 43 25,326.620
Page 4-31
(2) Investment amount for transport sector of GOS in Karachi
The total amount of revenue and capital of GOS for the transport sector accounts for Rs. 225
million in 2010-11 as shown in Table 4-4-10. The budget for the transport related project,
which is directly implemented by GOS is very small.
Table 4-4-10 Government of Sindh Transport Budget 2010-2011
(Rs. in Million)
Capital Revenue Total
On-going Schemes 79.000 81.000 160.000
New Schemes 20.000 0.000 20.000
Total Transport 99.000 81.000 180.000
Source: GOS Financial Data
Table 4-4-11 shows the budget of GOS for T&C sector in Karachi. The total of the budget
estimate from 2007-08 to 2009-10 was Rs. 5,991 million, although the budget has been revised
to approximately double the budget estimate every fiscal year, and the total of the revised
estimate in the three years amounts to Rs. 10,371 million. This total amount accounts for
1.26% of total expenditure of GOS during 2007-2010 (revised estimate).
Table 4-4-11 Release Position of T&C Sector Schemes pertaining to CDGK
(Rs. Million)
2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 Total
Budget Estimate 2,314.439 1,681.000 1,995.317 5,990.756
Revised Estimate 4,060.085 3,178.406 3,132.945 10,371.436
Source: GOS Financial Data
(3) Investment amount for transport sector of Federal Government
Table 4-4-12 shows the budget of the federal government allocation for communications. Most
works of Ministry of communications are related to the transportation sector.
The total amount from 2004-05 to 2010-11 is Rs. 173,562 million, accounting for 1.23% of the total
expenditure of the federal government during the same period.
Table 4-4-12 Federal Government Transport sector expenditure

(Rs. Million)
Total Allocation for Rate of
Fiscal Year
Expenditures Communications Communications
2004-2005 1,116,981 17,689 1.58%
2005-2006 1,401,900 16,477 1.18%
2006-2007 1,799,968 18,161 1.01%
2007-2008 2,276,549 20,940 0.92%
2008-2009 2,531,308 26,756 1.06%
2009-2010 2,517,020 35,972 1.43%
2010-2011 2,477,472 37,567 1.52%
Total 14,121,198 173,562 1.23%
Source: Budget Wing, Finance Division, Islamabad Planning Commission of Pakistan / Ministry of Finance, GOP.
(4) Karachi Package
GOS released Rs. 2,000 million for 16 road projects including flyover constructions, road
constructions, and road rehabilitation as Karachi Package in 2009-10 as shown in Table 4-4-13.
The same scale, i.e. Rs. 2,000 million, will be released for Karachi Package in 2010-11. The
re-appropriation of Rs. 323.461 million is under process for Karachi Package.
Page 4-32
Table 4-4-13 Details of Funds released for Karachi Package for the last FY
(Rs in Million)
Sr.No. Name of scheme Amount released
1 Construction of 3-Lane Flyover at Chanesar Halt on Shara-e-Faisal, Karachi. (Karachi 220.000
Construction of 2-Lane Flyover (a) Regent Palaza Intersection, Shara-e-eFaisal,
2 132.167
Karachi. (b) Hotel Mehran Intersetion, Shahara-e-Faisal, Karachi. (Karachi Package)
Construction of 2-Lane Flyover Along Dr.Ziauddin Ahmed Road at PIDC
3 50.000
Intersection, Karachi.(Karachi Package)
Construction of 4-Lane Flyover at Intersection Shaheed-e-Millat Road &
4 324.437
Mehmoodabad Near City Scool PAF Chapter, Karachi.(Karachi Package)
Rehabilitation / Improvement Shahrah-e-Sadi from Nehre-Khayam to Bilawal
5 55.000
Chowrangi including service road between Bilawal Chowrangi and Marine drive
Special Project Chanalization / Construction of Natural Nallas of Orangi Baldia,
6 194.821
Orangi north Nazimabad Korangi and Gulshan-e-Iqbal Town
7 Construction of Rehabilitation City Disrict Government Karachi (Phase-) Umbrella 105.000
Balance work of Shahrah-e-Qaddafi from Qasbba more to German School Orangi
8 150.000
Town Karachi.
9 Construction of Azeempura road, Shah Faisal Town. 45.000
Construction of Servise road on both side of Mauripur road from Gate 1 to the end /
10 100.000
beyond of truck stand.
Improvement of road 4300 and Construction of storm water drain from road 5200 to
11 25.000
Lyari river at the Karachi.
12 Construction / Improvement of rural areas of CDGK (defunct) District Councils) 20.000
Bridge over Lyari River connecting Surjani with Gulshane-e-Maymer,Yousuf Goth
13 35.000
Super Highway.
Construction and Rehabilitation of Shahrah-e-Noor Jahan from Abdullah College to
14 82.589
Qalandria Chowk Karachi
15 Construction of road from Chanesar Goth to Mehmoodabad Corporation road. 6.986
Construction of Flyover / Interchanged at Banaras Chowk Karachi with the inclusion
16 189.000
of Pdestrian Crossing Bridge
Total amount released 2,000.000
Source: GOS
4.4.3 Motor Vehicle Tax and Fee
Table 4-4-14 shows the rate of motor vehicle tax and fee. These taxes are included in the
general account of revenue instead of a special purpose tax for specific expenditure. Table
4-4-15 shows present annual rates of with-holding tax for non-commercial and commercial
vehicles. Figure 4-4-7 shows collection of motor vehicle tax and registration fee. The total
revenue from the motor vehicle tax and registration fee exceeds Rs. 2,000 million in 2009-10.
Tax and registration fee are imposed on motor vehicle users in various forms, and the amount
of total receipts is substantial. The gasoline tax is a considerable revenue source as well.
In addition to these current taxes, introduction of new special purpose tax is considered as a
possibility of a source of revenue. However, it would be difficult to establish a new special
purpose tax for car and gasoline for mass transit development because it could arouse resistant
pressure from the public.
Page 4-33
Table 4-4-14 Motor Vehicle Tax and Fee

RATE OF MOTOR VEHICLE TAXES MSC. FEE/TAXES
REGISTRASTION FEE COMMERCIAL NON COMMERCIAL
Non-Commercial Trucks/Mini Trucks/D.Van & Seating capacity not TRANSFER/
On Invoice Value upto Pickup (Laden Weight) more than 3 persons ALTERATON FEE:
1300 cc 1% a. Not exceeding 4060 kg 800/- (per annum) Non Commercial
1301 to 2500 cc 2% b. 4061 to 8120 kg 2000/- Seating capacity more a. Upto 800 cc 650/-
Exceeding 2500 cc 4% c. 8121 to 16000 kg 6000/- than 3 persons but not b. More than 800 cc 800/-
d. 16001 to 29999 kg 8000/- more than 6 persons c. Pickup & St.Wagon 1000/-
Motorcycle/Scootor 1% with Engine Capacity per having HP 1000 cc & above
Commercial vehicles. annum:
Cranes a. Not exceeding 1000 cc 1000/- Commercial
Luxury Tax Upto 8120 kg 2000/- b. 1001 to 1300 1500/- a. Truck/Bus etc. 1250/-
(At the time of c. 1301 to 1600 3000/- b. Pickup/Minibus upto 1000/-
Registration) Vehicles plying for hire and d. 1601 to 2000 3200/- 25 seats
a. Imported motor cars 100,000/- ordinary used for the transport e. 2001 to 2500 3500/- c. Pickup 1000 cc 800/-
with engine capacity of passenggers (Taxies & Busses) f. Above 2500 cc 5000/- d. Pickup upto 796 cc 650/-
from 3000 cc & above. a. More than 20 seats (per seat) 100/- e.. Rickshaw 650/-
b. Minibusses 7 to 19 seat (per seat) 160/- NOTE
b. Imported motorcars 50,000/- Tax for each additional seat 200/- Transfer Fee of 125/-
with engine capacity Taxis M.Cycles/scooters
from 2000 cc to 2999 cc a. Upto 4 persons 520/- Relief By Sindh
b. 5-6 persons 660/- Government (reduction) Fee for DCRC (for all types 200/-
c. Imported motorcars 5,000/- c. More than 6 persons per seat a. 10 years old (from date of 25% of Vehicles).
with engine capacity per annum. Reg.)
from 1500 cc to 1999 cc ) Air-conditioned 150/- b. 15 years old 50% Number Plate Fee (per 100/-
(for every exctra seat). Pair)
d. Locally manufactured 5,000/- )Non air conditioned 100/- Tractor per annum:
or assembled motor (for every exctra seat). a. Witout Trolly 200/- No.Plate Fee for 150/-
cars with engine b. With Trolly 300/- 03 plates in case of Trailer
capacity fromm 1500 cc Tricycle Rickshaw
and above For 3 persons 400/- MC/Scootor per annum 80/-
a. Newly registered Life 1000/-
Tractors 1200/- Time Tax
b. Trolly (if fitted extra) 200/-
Source: Excise & Taxation Department
Table 4-4-15 With-holding Tax for Vehicles

NON-COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL
SEATING Withholding NAME OF LADEN Professional Withholdin
HOUSE POWER
CAPACITY TAX VEHICLE WEIGT TAX g TAX
993 cc 4 NIL Pickup 1250 150 1200
992 cc 8 NIL Pickup 1251 to 2000 150 1200
992 cc 10 NIL Pickup 2031 to 4000 150 7200
1000 cc 4 500 Mini Trudk 4061 to 6000 150 7200
1000 cc 8 500 Mini Trudk 6091 to 8120 150 12000
1000 cc 10 500 Truck 8121 to 12000 150 12000
1001 cc to 1199 cc 4 500 Truck 12001 to 14999 150 12000
1001 cc to 1199 cc 8 500 Truck 15000 to 16000 150 18000
1001 cc to 1199 cc 10 500 Truck 16001 to 29999 150 18000
1001 cc to 1199 cc 12 500 Truck/Trailer 12001 to 14999 150 12000
1299 cc Truck/Trailer 15000 to 16000 150 18000
Truck/Trailer 16001 to 29999 150 18000
Crane 2031 to 4060 150 7200
Crane 4061 to 6090 150 7200
Crane 6091 to 8120 150 36000
Page 4-34
Rs. in Million 2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2006-07 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10
Year
Figure 4-4-7 Collection of Motor Vehicle Tax and Registration Fee etc
4.4.4 Loan from International Aid Agencies
Funds from the governments budget would not be enough to implement mass transit projects
in Karachi. Borrowing from banks would be necessary to meet the demand of funds. The
most probable funding source will be concessional loans from international donors such as
ADB, World Bank and JBIC.
Many projects in Pakistan have been actually financed by ADB, World Bank, and JBIC. Each
organization shows the posture to support investment in an infrastructure sector, although there
might be some subtle differences in terms of priorities.
Figure 4-4-8 shows the transition of loan disbursements of foreign economic assistance to
Pakistan.
The total amount of the loan from 1999 to 2003 was very low due to temporary suspension of
loans by Japan and other countries. Except those years, approximately US$ 2- 2.5 billion
have been disbursed every year. In recent years, the disbursements are increasing.
Disbursements of Foreign Economic Assistance (Loans)

(US$ Million)
3500
3000
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
Source: Economic Affairs Division

Figure 4-4-8 Loan Disbursements of Foreign Economic Assistance for Pakistan
Page 4-35
4.4.5 Available Budget Estimation
(1) Estimation of Available Budget of CDGK in 2010
CDGK has spent 6.58% of the total expenditures for investment in the transport sector from
2004 to 2009. Budget for the investment on the mass transit development is limited because
there are a number of projects to be implemented. It was assumed that 20% of the investment
in the transport sector to be allocated to the mass transit development in Karachi. Based on
the assumption, the total investible amount of CDGK budget for the mass transit development
in 2010-11 was estimated at approximately Rs. 700 million as shown below.
Rs. 53,874 million * 6.58% * 20% = Rs. 700 million
(Rs. 53,874 million is the total expenditures of CDGK in 2010-11.)
(2) Estimation of Available Budget of GOS in 2010
GOS has spent 1.26% of total expenditures for the investment on the transport sector in Karachi
area from 2007 to 2010. It was assumed that 15% of the investment on the transport sector in
Karachi area could be supplied to mass transit development project. The total expenditure of
GOS 2010-11 is Rs. 422,251, and the expenditure details are as follow: Rs. 268,267 million of
Current Revenue Expenditure, Rs. 18,898 million of Current Capital Expenditure, and Rs.
135,085 million of Provincial Development Expenditure. Based on this precondition, the
investible amount of GOS budget for the mass transit development was estimated at
approximately Rs. 790 million in 2010-11 as shown below.
Rs. 422,251 million * 1.26% * 15% = Rs. 790 million
(3) Estimation of Available Budget of GOP in 2010
Federal Government has spent 1.23% of total expenditures for investment in the transport
sector from 2004 to 2011. Considering the population share of Karachi in Pakistan being
10.9%, it was assumed that 10.9% of total transport sector investment can be allocated to
Karachi area. It was also assumed that 15% of the investment on the transport sector in
Karachi area could be supplied to mass transit development project. Based on this
precondition, the total amount which could be invested in the mass transit development would
be approximately Rs.490 million from Federal Government budget in 2010-11. The total
expenditure of Federal Government for 2010-11 is Rs. 2,477,472. Based on this precondition,
the investible amount of GOP budget for the mass transit development was estimated at
approximately Rs. 700 million as shown below.
Rs. 2,477,472 million * 1.23% * 10.9% * 15% = Rs. 490 million
(4) Estimation of Investable Amount in 2010
As calculated above, the available budget on the mass transit development in Karachi in
2010-11 was Rs. 700 million by CDGK, Rs. 790 million by GOS, and Rs. 490 million by GOP,
if the mass transit development was given high priority. These can be invested on projects as
equity capital. In the mass transit project, loan from international donors is usually used other
than equity capital.
In case that debt-to-equity ratio is 80:20, loan portion in 2010-11 is calculated at approximately
Rs. 7,920 million. This amount is 3.7% of the average yearly amount of loan disbursements
of foreign economic assistance for Pakistan in recent years. If the loan from international
Page 4-36
donors is expanded, it will be a sufficiently possible amount of money.

(5) Estimation of Investable Amount up to 2030
GDP growth percentage has been estimated as 4.7% in 4.2.3 Growth of GRDP in Karachi.
The investible amount has been calculated based on the precondition that each investable
amount would increase by 4.7% annually from the year 2010. The estimation of investible
amounts for the mass transit in Karachi until the year 2030 is shown in Table 4-4-19.
The investible amounts shown in Table 4-4-16 is the estimation of potential investible amount
based on the financial conditions of CDGK, GOS and GOP from 2013 to 2030. Thus, this is
not the actual invested amounts by period. At actual implementation of a project, investment
timing needs to be accelerating according to a project plan based on the potential investible
amount.
The investable amounts from 2013 to 2030 are estimated at Rs. 21,859 million by CDGK, Rs.
24,656 million by GOS and Rs. 15,271 million by GOP. Also, available amount of loan from
international donors is estimated at Rs. 248,587 million.
The total investable amount to the mass transit development project is estimated Rs. 310,373
million. If the amount of investment to KCR is Rs. 150,000 million, the investable amount to
other mass transit will be estimated over Rs.160,000 million.
Table 4-4-16 Estimation of Available Budget for Mass Transit Development in Karachi
(Rs. in Million)
Annual Investment Amount
Year Total
CDGK GOS Federal Loans
2010 700 790 490 7,920 9,900
2011 732 827 513 8,292 10,364
2012 766 865 537 8,681 10,849
2013 802 905 562 9,089 11,358
2014 839 947 588 9,516 11,890
2015 878 991 615 9,963 12,447
2016 919 1,037 643 10,431 13,030
2017 962 1,085 673 10,921 13,641
2018 1,007 1,135 704 11,434 14,280
2019 1,054 1,188 737 11,971 14,950
2020 1,103 1,243 771 12,533 15,650
2021 1,154 1,301 807 13,122 16,384
2022 1,208 1,362 844 13,738 17,152
2023 1,264 1,426 883 14,383 17,956
2024 1,323 1,493 924 15,059 18,799
2025 1,385 1,563 967 15,766 19,681
2026 1,450 1,636 1,012 16,507 20,605
2027 1,518 1,712 1,059 17,282 21,571
2028 1,589 1,792 1,108 18,094 22,583
2029 1,663 1,876 1,160 18,944 23,643
2030 1,741 1,964 1,214 19,834 24,753
2013-30 21,859 24,656 15,271 248,587 310,373
Source: Estimation by the JICA Study Team
Note: Annual investment is assumed to increase by 4.7% a year.
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Karachi Transportation Improvement Project Final Report

Chapter 4 Planning Frameworks

4.1.1 Socio-economic frameworks

4.1.2 Future land use

4.1.3 Financial framework

Source: Prepared by the JICA Study Team

Source: Prepared by the JICA Study Team

4.2 Socio-economic Framework

4.2.1 Total Population in Karachi

Table 4-2-1 Annual Average Growth Rate (million)

Pupulation and Increase Ratio of 1950-2005

4.2.2 Economically Active Population

(1) Distribution ratio by age group in Karachi at 1998

Population Pyramid of Karachi 00 -- 04 15.0% 17.3% 16.0%

Male Female 05 -- 09 15.8% 18.1% 16.9%

55 -- 59 30 -- 34 10.1% 9.4% 9.8%

20 -- 24 60 -- 64 2.4% 2.4% 2.4%

Source: 1998 CENSUS

(2) Composition by age group in Pakistan from 1998 to 2030

Source: Planning & Development Division, June 2010

Figure 4-2-4 Population by Age Groups in Pakistan

(3) Labour force participation rates

70.0 62.1 62.4 62.6 63.6

Source: Labour Force Survey 2008-2009

Figure 4-2-5 Labour Force Participation Rates (Both Sexes)

20.5 18.6 20.5 21.3 22.4 21.5 20.7 19.7

Source: Labour Force Survey 2008-2009

Figure 4-2-6 Labour Force Participation Rates by Age and Sex

(4) Economically active population

3,604,834 2,051,982 2,347,764 2,088,955 7,986,094 332,754 517,617 18,930,000

4.2.3 Growth of GRDP in Karachi

4.2.4 Car Ownership

(1) Car ownership of Karachi in last 20 years

600,000 800,000 40.0

No. fo Passenger cars Ownership No. fo Motorcycle Ownership

(2) Estimation of Number of Vehicles

Table 4-2-5 Future Car / Motorcycle Ownership

Source: Estimated by the JICA Study Team

4.2.5 Number of Students

Table 4-2-6 Number of School and Enrollment by SEMIS (2009-10)

Table 4-2-7 Private Educational Institutions and Enrollment (2000)

Table 4-2-8 Number of Students in Karachi

Table 4-2-10 Estimation of Enrollments in 2030

4.3 Land Use Plan

4.3.1 Basic Concept for Future Land Use

(1) Schematic urban structures

Natural Sprawl Development without Multi-Satellite City Cores Development

Source: JICA Study Team

(2) Future urban structure of Karachi

Source: Prepared by the JICA Study Team

4.3.2 Future Land Use Planning

(1) Urbanization Area for 2030

Manora Cantt Clifton Cant Korangi Cant

Source: Land Use Survey by the JICA Study Team (KTIP)

Keamari SITE Liaquatabad Fasial Cantt

Manora Cantt Clifton Cant Korangi Cant

Source: Elaborated by the JICA Study Team (KTIP)

(2) Basic Policies for Major Land Use Allocation

(3) Examples of large-scale urban development

4.3.3 Land Use Plan in 2030

Orangi Malir Cannt

Manora Cantt Clifton Cant

4.3.4 Distribution of Future Population