Outlook

for the
Texas Economy

LUIS TORRES WESLEY MILLER

RESEARCH ECONOMIST RESEARCH ASSISTANT

TR
TECHNICAL REPORT
2 0 4 6
J U N E 2 017
 Contents
About this Report ................................................................................................................................ 3
April 2017 Summary ............................................................................................................................ 4
Economic Activity ................................................................................................................................ 7
Real GDP Growth .............................................................................................................................. 7
Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index ................................................................................. 7
Major Metros Business Cycle Index ................................................................................................. 8
Border Metros Business Cycle Index ................................................................................................ 8
Consumer Confidence Index ............................................................................................................ 9
Financial Activity .................................................................................................................................. 9
30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield .............................................................................. 9
Housing .............................................................................................................................................. 10
Housing Sales ................................................................................................................................. 10
Major Metros Housing Sales .......................................................................................................... 10
Months of Inventory ...................................................................................................................... 11
Major Metros Months of Inventory ............................................................................................... 11
Texas Home Days on Market .......................................................................................................... 12
Energy ................................................................................................................................................ 12
Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count ................................................................................ 12
Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices ................................................................................................... 13
Manufacturing ................................................................................................................................... 13
Manufacturing Outlook Survey ...................................................................................................... 13
Services .............................................................................................................................................. 14
Services Sector Outlook Survey ...................................................................................................... 14
Texas Retail Sector ......................................................................................................................... 14
Employment ...................................................................................................................................... 15
Employment Growth Rate .............................................................................................................. 15
Major Metros Employment Growth Rate ...................................................................................... 15
Unemployment Rate ...................................................................................................................... 16
Major Metros Unemployment Rate ............................................................................................... 16
Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications ................................................................... 17

1

 Labor Force Participation Rate ....................................................................................................... 17
Manufacturing Employment .......................................................................................................... 18
Major Metros Manufacturing Employment ................................................................................... 18
Construction Employment ............................................................................................................. 19
Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ........................................................................................ 19
Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings ................................................................. 20
Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings ..................................................................................... 20
Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings ............................................................. 21
CPI Inflation Rates .......................................................................................................................... 21
CPI Inflation Rates (Houston Components) .................................................................................... 22
Trade .................................................................................................................................................. 22
Exports (All Commodities) .............................................................................................................. 22
Manufacturing Exports ................................................................................................................... 23
Texas Exports by Country ............................................................................................................... 23
Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar ...................................................................................... 24

2

About this Report
Real Estate Center economists continuously monitor many facets of the global, national, and Texas
economies. Outlook for the Texas Economy summarizes significant state economic activity and
trends. All monthly measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage
changes are calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise.

This publication is designed to be a one-stop resource for economic indicators. We hope you find
them as useful as we do. Your feedback is always appreciated. Send comments and suggestions to
info@recenter.tamu.edu.

Dr. Luis Torres and Wesley Miller

Data current as of June 2, 2017

2017, Real Estate Center. All rights reserved.

3

April 2017 Summary1

The Texas economy advanced amid increased energy activity and a tightening labor market. The
number of active rigs reached a two-year high, led by production increases in the Permian Basin. Texas
posted the largest monthly employment increase in the nation, led by large gains in education and
health services. Employment growth, increased labor force participation, and low levels of initial
unemployment insurance claims indicate that the labor market is heating up. Potential headwinds to
the Texas economy include trade uncertainty (especially with Mexico), volatile energy prices, and tax
policy uncertainty.

The Texas economy appeared stagnant in 2016, with gross domestic product (GDP) inching up only 0.4
percent. However, the contractionary second quarter masked the 3.4 percent fourth quarter
expansionthe largest growth of any state. Upswings in residential construction, energy activity, and
manufacturing stimulated growth in the Texas economy.

The positive trend in the Texas Business Cycle Index (a measure of current economic activity in the
state) suggests that this momentum continued through the first four months of 2017. The index
surpassed 4.0 percent year-over-year growth for the first time since September 2015. The major
metro Business Cycle Indices indicated similar year-over-year growth throughout the Texas Urban
Triangle. Houston posted the largest monthly percentage increase and maintained a steep upward
trend, solidifying its recent economic recovery.

The Texas Leading Economic Index (a measure of future directional changes in the business cycle)
dipped slightly as the price of oil slipped but maintained positive year-over-year growth, primarily from
the decline in the Texas value of the dollar. Similarly, the Consumer Confidence Index reflected a
favorable, yet adjusted outlook on the future. The index remained historically high but fell 10.0
percent from March, retracting almost all its post-election gains.

Texas housing sales declined 5.9 percent (seasonally adjusted) because of shortages of homes under
$200,000. The average number of days on market fell to 55 days, and the months of inventory inched
up to 3.8 months. The median sale price was flat for new homes but rose 10.2 percent year-over-year
in the existing home market. (For additional housing commentary and statistics, see Texas Housing
Insight at recenter.tamu.edu.)

Interest rates reversed and fell to their lowest point this year amid geopolitical tensions and soft
national economic data. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield dropped to 2.2 percent as investors
rushed to secure safer assets. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation 30-year fixed-rate fell
below 4.1 percent, providing some assistance to housing affordability pressures.

1
All monthly measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are
calculated month-over-month, unless stated otherwise.

4

The average West Texas Intermediate crude oil spot price ticked up to $51.06 but was down 6.1
percent after seasonal adjustments. The number of active rigs in Texas rose to a two-year high of 4252
and crude oil production leveled at 3.3 million bpd2,3. The Henry Hub spot price of natural gas rose to
$3.10 per million BTU2 (British Thermal Unit), despite saturated inventories. Horizontal drilling
technology in the U.S. has contributed to a global natural gas glut. The Energy Information
Administration predicts that the U.S. will be a net exporter of natural gas by 2018the first time in
nearly 60 years. Texas remained the largest gas-producing state, accounting for 23.7 percent of
national production.

Texas led the nation in monthly nonfarm employment growth, adding 30,400 new jobs, and pushed
this years net job increase above 110,300. The Dallas Federal Reserve forecasts a 289,300 job increase
in 2017. The statewide unemployment rate remained unchanged at 5.0 percent, and the labor force
participation rate surpassed 64 percent for the first time in two years. The unemployment rate varied
from 3.6 percent in Austin to 5.7 percent in Houston, but all major metros exhibited a monthly decline.
Moreover, the number of initial unemployment insurance claims in Texas remained at pre-
recessionary levels, corroborating the health of the Texas labor market.

Job growth was mixed across the Texas Urban Triangle. Houston added 13,700 jobsits largest
monthly increase since 2014in response to the continued energy sector recovery. San Antonio
added 3,800 jobs, pushing this years net increase above 6,000. Dallas lost 15,600 jobs, primarily in the
professional/business services and leisure/hospitality industries but still led the state in year-over-year
job growth at 3.1 percent. Employment dipped by 0.3 percent in Fort Worth, resulting from 3,200 lost
jobs but maintained a 5,500 net increase for the year. Austin lost 400 jobs but maintained 3.0 percent
year-over-year growth.

Goods-producing sector employment growth slowed but sustained its first-quarter gains. In response
to increased energy activity, the mining and logging industry added 3,300 jobs, while manufacturing
posted an 8,100 job increase. All of the Texas Manufacturing Outlook Surveys labor market indices
(employment, wages, hours worked) increased, albeit at slightly decreasing rates. Manufacturers
noted production and demand increases and remained optimistic for the next six months. Conversely,
the construction industry lost 10,300 jobs, offsetting most of the manufacturing, mining, and logging
gains.

After a stagnant first quarter, the service-providing sector added 29,300 jobs and accounted for nearly
all of this months total employment growth. Education and health services recorded the largest gains
with 10,400 jobs added. Professional and business services employment increased by 7,400 jobs,
followed by a 6,100 job increase in leisure and hospitality. Job losses occurred only in the information
industry, which contracted by 3,500 jobs and fell 4.5 percent year-over-year.

2
Non-seasonally adjusted.
3
Crude oil production data lag this report by one month.

5

The Texas Service Sector Outlook Survey confirmed increases in employment and work-week length.
The revenue index was positive but fell 3.1 points amid rising input prices. Respondents from
educational services to telecommunications commented on the need for deregulation and tax reform.
Additionally, employers responded to labor shortages through wage and benefit increases.

Retailers noted similar concerns in the Texas Retail Outlook, particularly regarding border adjustment
tax uncertainty. The retail sales index increased despite rising input costs and falling sales prices. An
uptick in retail sales4 and the retail sales index improved retailers expectations of future economic
conditions.

Real total private employee hourly earnings in Texas jumped 2.4 percentits largest monthly
increase in over a decadeas labor market conditions appeared to tighten. Monthly wage growth
occurred in all the major metros, but a stagnant trend persisted in Dallas, Fort Worth, and Houston. On
the other hand, San Antonio remained on its two-year upward trend as wages rose 5.4 percent year-
over-year.

Real manufacturing employee hourly earnings were flat in Texas but remained 10.6 percent higher
than the national average. Manufacturing wages increased 1.0 percent in Dallas, just below the state
level. Fort Worth had the highest wages, paying 65.6 percent and 49.7 percent more than the national
and statewide averages, respectively. Manufacturing wage pressure softened in Houston despite large
employment gains. Moreover, San Antonio manufacturing wages remained below the state average
but continued their upward trend.

After dipping in March, the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 0.2 percent, but the headline
year-over-year rate fell to 2.2 percent. Natural gas and electricity prices generated the monthly uptick.
The core inflation rate, which excludes the often-volatile energy and food sectors, rose marginally at
0.1 percent. The CPI for Houston fell below 2.1 percent, as falling communication and education prices
offset utility price inflation. Despite the weak CPI numbers, the Federal Reserve remains on track to
raise the federal funds rate in June.

The goods trade deficit widened to $67.6 billion as U.S. commodity exports fell 3.5 percent. Despite a
decline in the Texas trade-weighted value of the dollar5, Texas commodity and manufacturing
exports fell 6.7 percent and 5.5 percent, respectivelytheir first contractions of the year. Exports fell
substantially for chemicals, computer and electronic products, and transportation equipment.
However, the overall health of the North American economy should support a continued upward
trend.

4
The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas seasonally adjusts Texas nominal retail sales data and the data release
typically lags the Outlook for the Texas Economy by one month. The series is converted into real terms using the
Consumer Price Index.
5
The Texas trade-weighted value of the dollar is generated by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas. Its release
typically lags the Outlook for the Texas Economy by one month.

6

Economic Activity

Real GDP Growth

(Year-over-Year Percent Change)
7
United States Texas
6

-1

-2

-3
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information see GDP.
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

Texas Business Cycle Index and Leading Index

(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
145 120
Business Cycle Index
140 115
Leading Index (Right Axis)
135 110

130 105

125 100

120 95

115 90

110 85

105 80

100 75
May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16
Jan-07

Sep-07

Jan-09

Sep-09

Jan-11

Sep-11

Jan-13

Sep-13

Jan-15

Sep-15

Jan-17

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas


7


Major Metros Business Cycle Index
(Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)
15

10

-5
Austin-Round Rock Dallas-Plano-Irving
-10 Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown
San Antonio

-15
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17


Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas


Border Metros Business Cycle Index
(Quarter -over- Quarter Percent Change)
20

15

10

-5

-10 Brownsville-Harlingen
El Paso
-15 Laredo
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission
-20
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Texas Business Cycle Index.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas

8

 Consumer Confidence Index
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
200
190 Texas United States

180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Nov-11

Nov-16
Aug-15
Oct-14
Jun-11

Jun-16
Jan-11

Sep-12

Feb-13

Dec-13

Jan-16
Jul-13
Apr-12

Apr-17
May-14

Mar-15

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended.
Source: Conference Board

Financial Activity

30-Year Mortgage Rate and 10-Year Bond Yield
(Percent)
7.00
Mortgage Bond
6.00

5.00

4.00

3.00

2.00

1.00
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Note: Seasonally adjusted.

Sources: Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation and Federal Reserve Board

9

Housing
Housing Sales
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
115
United States Texas
110
105
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
Jan-07

Sep-07

Jan-09

Sep-09

Jan-11

Sep-11

Jan-13

Sep-13

Jan-15

Sep-15

Jan-17
May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Sales for the United States include all existing homes and new single-family homes;
new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes.
For more information, see Housing Sales.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University




Major Metros Housing Sales
(Index Jan 2007 = 100)
125
Austin-Round Rock
120
Dallas-Plano-Irving
115
Fort Worth-Arlington
110
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
105
San Antonio-New Braunfels
100
95
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
Jul-09

Jul-14
Apr-08

Apr-13
Nov-07

May-10

Nov-12

May-15
Mar-11
Aug-11

Mar-16
Aug-16
Oct-10

Oct-15
Jun-07

Jun-12
Jan-07

Sep-08
Feb-09

Dec-09

Jan-12

Sep-13
Feb-14

Dec-14

Jan-17

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For more information, see Housing Sales.
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

10

 Months of Inventory
(Months)
11

10
United States Texas
9

3
May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16
Jan-07

Sep-07

Jan-09

Sep-09

Jan-11

Sep-11

Jan-13

Sep-13

Jan-15

Sep-15

Jan-17

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Months of inventory for the United States is estimated using weights for all existing
homes and new single-family homes; new non-single-family homes are not included. Texas includes all existing and new homes.
For more information, see Months of Inventory.
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, National Association of Realtors, and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University




Major Metros Months of Inventory

(Months)

9

8 Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
7 Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land
6 San Antonio-New Braunfels

1
Jul-09

Jul-14
Apr-08

Apr-13
Nov-07

Nov-12
May-10

May-15
Mar-11
Aug-11

Mar-16
Aug-16
Oct-10

Oct-15
Jun-07

Jun-12
Jan-07

Sep-08
Feb-09

Dec-09

Jan-12

Sep-13
Feb-14

Dec-14

Jan-17

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For more information, see Months of Inventory.
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

11

 Texas Home Days on Market
(Days)
110
Existing Home Days on Market
New Home Days on Market
100

90

80

70

60

50
Jul-13
Apr-12

Apr-17
Nov-11

May-14

Nov-16
Mar-15

Aug-15
Oct-14
Jun-11

Jun-16
Jan-11

Sep-12

Feb-13

Dec-13

Jan-16

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. For single-family homes.
Source: Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University



Energy

Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count
(Count)
(Number of rigs) (Millions of barrels per day)
1200 4
Production of Crude Oil (Right Axis)
Number of Operating Rigs 3.5
1000
3
800
2.5

600 2

1.5
400
1
200
0.5

0 0
Jan-07

Sep-07

Jan-09

Sep-09

Jan-11

Sep-11

Jan-13

Sep-13

Jan-15

Sep-15

Jan-17
May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16

Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended.
For more information, see Texas Production of Crude Oil and Rig Count.
Sources: Baker Hughes and U.S. Energy Information Administration

12


Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices
$/Barrel
($) $/million BTU

140 14
Crude Oil Natural Gas
(Right Axis)
120 12

100 10

80 8

60 6

40 4

20 2

0 0
Jul-09

Jul-14
Apr-08

Apr-13
Nov-07

May-10

Nov-12
Mar-11
Aug-11

May-15

Mar-16
Aug-16
Oct-10

Oct-15
Jun-07

Jun-12
Jan-07

Sep-08
Feb-09

Dec-09

Jan-12

Sep-13
Feb-14

Dec-14

Jan-17


Note: Seasonally adjusted and detrended.
For more information, see Crude Oil and Natural Gas Prices.
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration received from Thomson Reuters



Manufacturing

Manufacturing Outlook Survey
(Index)
30

20

10

-10
United States Texas
-20

-30

-40
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Manufacturing Outlook Survey.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management. United States index is adjusted
-50 to be on scale with Texas index.

13

Services
Services Sector Outlook Survey
(Index)
50
United States Texas
40

30

20

10

-10

-20
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16


Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Services Sector Outlook Survey.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Institute for Supply Management. United States index is adjusted -50 to be on scale
with Texas index.



Texas Retail Sector
Year-over-Year
Index (Index; Year-over-Year Percent Change) Percent
50 25
40 20
30 15
20 10
10 5
0 0
-10 -5
-20 -10
-30 -15
Dallas Federal Reserve Bank Retail Sales
-40 Retail Survey (Right Axis) -20
-50 -25
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Note: Seasonally adjusted and inflation adjusted. For more information, see Texas Retail Sector.
Sources: Retail Sector Outlook Survey from the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, Retail Sales from
Texas Comptroller of Public Accounts

14

Employment

Employment Growth Rate
(Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change)
6
United States Texas
4

-2

-4

-6

-8

Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Employment Growth Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Major Metros Employment Growth Rate
(Quarter-over-Quarter Annualized Percent Change)
8

-2
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
-4
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land
-6
San Antonio
-8
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Employment Growth Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

15

 Unemployment Rate
(Percent)
11
United States
10
Texas
9

3
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17


Note: Seasonally adjusted. April 2017 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics



Major Metros Unemployment Rate
(Percent)
9

5
Austin-Round Rock
Dallas-Plano-Irving
4
Fort Worth-Arlington
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land
3
San Antonio
2
May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16
Jan-07

Sep-07

Jan-09

Sep-09

Jan-11

Sep-11

Jan-13

Sep-13

Jan-15

Sep-15

Jan-17

Note: Seasonally adjusted. April 2017 is preliminary. For more information, see Unemployment Rate.
Sources: Bureau of Labor Statistics and Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University

16

 Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications
(Year-over-Year Percentage Change)

145
U.S.
125
Texas
105

85

65

45

25

-15

-35
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Unemployment Insurance Claims: Initial Applications.
Source: Department of Labor





Labor Force Participation Rate
(Percent)
67
United States Texas

66

65

64

63

62
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see Unemployment Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics



17

 Manufacturing Employment
(Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
United States Texas
-10
-12
-14
-16
-18
-20
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16


Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Employment Growth Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics




Major Metros Manufacturing Employment
(Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)
14
10
6
2
-2
-6
Austin-Round Rock
-10
Dallas-Plano-Irving
-14
Fort Worth-Arlington
-18
Houston-Baytown-Sugar Land
-22
San Antonio
-26
-30
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Employment Growth Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

18

 Construction Employment
(Quarter-over-Quarter Percent Change)
15

10

-5
United States Texas
-10

-15

-20

-25
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16


Note: Seasonally adjusted, 3-month moving average. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Employment Growth Rate.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)
5
United States Texas
4
3
2
1
0
-1
-2
-3
-4
-5
Nov-08

Nov-13
Aug-12
Oct-11

Oct-16
Jun-08

Jun-13
Jan-08

Sep-09
Feb-10

Dec-10

Jan-13

Sep-14
Feb-15

Dec-15
Jul-10

Jul-15
Apr-09

Apr-14
May-11

May-16
Mar-12

Mar-17

Notes: Inflation adjusted, seasonally adjusted and detrended. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

19

 Major Metros Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos Dallas-Plano-Irving
-10
Fort Worth-Arlington Houston-The Woodlands-Sugarland
-12
San Antonio-New Braunfels
-14
Jul-10

Jul-15
Apr-09

Apr-14
Nov-08

May-11

Nov-13
Mar-12
Aug-12

May-16

Mar-17
Oct-11

Oct-16
Jun-08

Jun-13
Jan-08

Sep-09
Feb-10

Dec-10

Jan-13

Sep-14
Feb-15

Dec-15


Notes: Inflation adjusted, seasonally adjusted and detrended. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics


Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)
25
United States Texas
20

15

10

-5

-10
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Notes: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Inflation adjusted. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

20

 Major Metros Manufacturing Employee Hourly Earnings
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)
35
Dallas-Plano-Irving
30
Fort Worth-Arlington
25
HoustonThe WoodlandsSugar Land
20
San Antonio-New Braunfels
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17


Notes: Seasonally adjusted and detrended. Inflation adjusted. April 2017 is preliminary.
For more information, see Total Private Employee Hourly Earnings.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistic



Prices
CPI Inflation Rates
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)
6
United States Houston
5

-1

-2

-3
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Note: Seasonally adjusted. For more information, see CPI Inflation Rates.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

21

 CPI Inflation Rates (Houston Components)
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)
16
14 Food and Beverages Housing
12
Transportation Medical
10
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
May-11

Nov-11

Nov-12

Nov-13
Aug-11

May-12
Aug-12

May-13
Aug-13

May-14

Nov-14

Nov-16
Aug-14

May-15

Nov-15
Aug-15

May-16
Aug-16
Feb-11

Feb-12

Feb-13

Feb-14

Feb-15

Feb-16

Feb-17

Note: The Houston CPI is composed of the following major groups: Food and Beverages, Housing, Apparel, Transportation,
Medical Care, Recreation, Education and Communication, and Other Goods and Services. The four major components are
included in the graph above.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics



Trade

Exports (All Commodities)
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)
35
30
United States Texas
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16

Note: Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Exports.
Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau



22

 Manufacturing Exports
(Year-over-Year Percent Change)
35
30
United States
25
Texas
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Jul-07

Jul-08

Jul-09

Jul-10

Jul-11

Jul-12

Jul-13

Jul-14

Jul-15

Jul-16
Jan-07

Jan-08

Jan-09

Jan-10

Jan-11

Jan-12

Jan-13

Jan-14

Jan-15

Jan-16

Jan-17

Note: Inflation adjusted with Bureau of Labor Statistics export indices. For more information, see Manufacturing Exports.
Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau



Texas Exports by Country
(Percent)
100
90
80
70
60
50
40 Netherlands
30 Mexico
China
20 Canada
Brazil
10
ROW
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Note: For more information, see Exports.
Sources: International Trade Administration, Foreign Trade Division, and U.S. Census Bureau





23


Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar
(Index January 2007 = 100)

120
United States Texas
115

110

105

100

95

90

85

80
May-08

May-10

May-12

May-14

May-16
Jan-07

Sep-07

Jan-09

Sep-09

Jan-11

Sep-11

Jan-13

Sep-13

Jan-15

Sep-15

Jan-17


Note: For more information, see Real Trade Weighted Value of U.S. Dollar.
Sources: Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

24

 MAYS BUSINESS SCHOOL
Texas A&M University http://recenter.tamu.edu
2115 TAMU 979-845-2031
College Station, TX 77843-2115

DIRECTOR

GARY W. MALER

ADVISORY COMMITTEE

DOUG ROBERTS, CHAIRMAN DOUG JENNINGS, VICE CHAIRMAN

Austin Fort Worth
MARIO A. ARRIAGA BESA MARTIN
Conroe Boerne
RUSSELL CAIN TED NELSON
Port Lavaca Houston
ALVIN COLLINS C. CLARK WELDER
Andrews San Antonio
JACQUELYN K. HAWKINS BILL JONES, EX-OFFICIO
Austin Temple