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Combined Forecast for the Internet of Things

Marissa Montgomery
Vanderbilt University
2301 Vanderbilt Place
PMB 355632
(941) 807-6044
marissamarymontgomery@gmail.com

ABSTRACT terabytes) of data available on the Internet were first captured and
The Internet of Things (IoT), in which physical objects and people created by human beings [1].
are equipped with smart sensors connected to a network of
computers, has the potential to collect and utilize unprecedented
amounts of data from events in the physical world.
Microprocessor size and sensor technology is enabling advances
in the Internet of Things, but privacy concerns around the vast
amount of data these sensors will collect may slow down the rate
of adoption. In creating this forecast, a variation of the Delphi
method known as TechCast was used. Some factors driving the
adoption of the IoT technology are its effect of safety and
effiency, and the lowering price of sensor technology. Two factors
opposing the adoption of this new technology are privacy
concerns, and efforts to coordinate between industries. The Delphi
TechCast forecast came to the conclusion, with a mean of a 69%
confidence level, that the Internet of Things technology will reach
a 30% adoption share by 2020, and a share of the market valued
between $1.1 and $5 trillion [5].
Figure 1. A FitBit device tracking miles walked [3]
Keywords
Internet of Things, RFID, Delphi forecast, TechCast, sensors, The problem with the Internet of Things and the M2M network is
Nest it is not yet large enough to effectively interface between systems.
The effectiveness of any M2M system depends largely on the
1. INTRODUCTION number of other devices it can connect to, and thus process data
Today, many objects are not being tracked, and humans from, so the more connected objects, the more effective. For
themselves are entering much of the information used by the example, the aforementioned treadmill and heart monitor system
Internet [1]. However, the rise of the Internet of Things has been could be enhanced by connections with the users shoes, to alter
increasing the total amount of information collected by using arch support accordingly, or the users mobile device, to track
sensors from objects, humans, and even animals to collect data. calories burned.
This practice is being implemented in manufacturing to keep track Currently, many objects are both controlled and accessible by the
of inventory and products shipped, but also is being used in the same user that utilizes its data. For example, the intention of a
home and by the consumer with wearable devices such as the FitBit is to collect fitness data about the wearer and provide this
FitBit [3]. Another common term for the Internet of Things is information in a useful fashion to the wearer of the device [3]. As
M2M, or Machine to Machine. This term further explains the the number of devices expands, the usefulness of information may
usefulness of embedding sensors and advanced capabilities into cross into other industries, and the information collected may be
physical objects. For example, a Machine-to-Machine system may utilized not only directly by the user of the object, but by third
include a heart monitor, which tracks the status of a human being, party users or devices as well. While this complicates the privacy
a physical entity, that communicates with the treadmill that the issues associated with tracking objects, animals, and people, it
human is running on, in order to increase the speed to achieve also provides for a more interconnected web of information,
optimal physical performance [2]. Metabolic monitoring essentially bringing the Internet into the real world [5].
technology such as this example can make it easier for doctors to
detect metabolic problems in patients and for coaches to fine-tune This article will forecast the prevalence of physical objects
athletes training routines [5]. The distinguishing factor between connected through the Internet of Things. The purpose of this
the Internet of Things and objects that are merely tagged with forecast is to inform the makers of Machine-to-Machine (M2M)
sensors or codes is that the former involves smart objects, which systems on how quickly the number of connected objects is
can sense, log, and interpret whats occurring within themselves growing, so that they can anticipate how large the pool of objects
and the world, act on their own, intercommunicate with each to interface will be at any given time, in order to adjust product
other, and exchange information with people [smart objects as requirements and strategize for the future.
building blocks]. The fact that with these smart objects, a lot of
data can be collected without human intervention is very
significant in increasing the amount of data worldwide because
nearly all of the roughly 50 petabytes (a petabyte is 1,024
2. THE DELPHI FORECAST comfortable with the subject area, they are encouraged to not
respond. In the fourth phase, a computer system calculates
2.1 The Delphi Methodology statistics based on the experts predictions. In phase five, the most
2.1.2 Introduction to the Delphi Method recent TechCast forecast on that subject area is updated to reflect
the new data and opinions collected, and TechCast performs
The Delphi Method is used to collect and analyze the opinions of
analysis to discover the nature of experts who tend to provide
experts for a specific subject area in order to predict certain events
more accurate forecasts [5].
related to a technology subject area [4]. The goal is to benefit
from the collective wisdom of the experts involved while 2.1.2.2 Evaluation of the TechCast Methodology
diminishing the effects of any biases or misinformation. This The most obvious way in which the TechCast Delphi method
method is particularly useful when used in tandem with data and differs from the classic Delphi Method is the former gathers vast
statistics related to the progression of the technology. It can amounts of information for the panelists before beginning the
compensate for the weaknesses associated with statistical process. While this might increase the level of accuracy of the
evidence, such as a restricted ability to predict cultural, ethical, or responses because accurate background information is provided, it
religious considerations, or the presence of external events that also introduces the possibility of bias. There will inherently be
may influence technology adoption [4]. bias in collecting the data, especially in the more qualitative forms
The main principles that differentiate the Delphi process are the of data such as the pros and cons driving the adoption of the
level of anonymity, statistical analysis of the panelists responses, technology. Thus, the moderators will play a much larger role in
and the iterative nature of the rounds [4]. The classical Delphi influencing the opinions of panelists in the TechCast Delphi
method involves four rounds, in which moderators provide variation.
panelists with increasing amounts of information and panelists Another major difference between the TechCast Delphi method
refine their estimates. In the first round, the moderators offer the and the classic Delphi method is that the panelists come from a
panelists a completely unstructured questionnaire and ask them to large pool of experts, and they each choose to participate in the
choose likely future events in the subject area, and predict a date forecasts that they feel most comfortable with [5]. This reflects a
for when they believe these events will occur. The moderator then different process not of the moderators choosing the panelists for
consolidates the forecasts, and chooses which events were most the forecast, but of the experts choosing to be panelists for the
cited in order to structure the questionnaire for the second round. forecast. This feature is an asset for TechCast because it guards
In the second round, panelists receive this questionnaire with a list against any bias moderators may have in choosing experts, and
of events and are asked to estimate the timeline for each event. panelists will tend to have less personal biases because it is likely
The moderators then take this information and prepare a statistical that fewer of them will be in industries concerned with the subject
summary of the responses, including the degree of spread of the area in question. If an expert is in a relevant industry, there is a
experts opinions [4]. The moderators give the panelists another chance that he or she will unconsciously choose to believe a
questionnaire altered for the third round, which includes the prediction due to the fact that he or she has a stake in the
predictions of other experts, the medians, and the statistical implications.
quartiles for each event. The panelists then have the option to
The TechCast method further benefits from its principle of
change their estimates and must provide reasoning if their
iterating on the forecast in a subject area every year and
estimates land in the lower or higher quartile. In the fourth and
evaluating how the forecast may have changed [5]. This is an
final round, the moderators calculate the statistics again, and
advantage because moderators can quickly assess if the previous
provide the panelists with the predicted dates for the events, and
forecast was on the right track, and combine the knowledge of two
the panelists reasoning for changing estimates. The panelists then
forecasts in order to increase accuracy. This method also has the
comment on the arguments, and the moderators calculate the final
added benefit of permitting moderators to extrapolate possible
forecasts, with measures of agreement, and summaries of critical
results by viewing the progression of forecasts over time [5].
issues [4].

2.1.2 The TechCast Method


2.2 Factors Affecting the Internet of
Things
2.1.2.1 Overview of the TechCast Methodology
The TechCast method contains five steps, instead of four, and it is 2.2.2 Trends Driving the Adoption of IoT
conducted online instead of in person [5]. In the first phase, the Technology
expert panelists are not involved, but rather, the moderators scan According to the TechCast Delphi forecast on the Internet of
media outlets, the Internet, literature, and other relevant sources in Things, the potential of the Internet of Things technology to
order to have some background information about the subject area increase the level of safety and efficiency in the world is a
in question [5]. In the second phase, the moderators gather promising driving factor in the adoption of the technology [7]. By
information in a more structured fashion. First, they look for the tracking the status public infrastructure such as buildings,
current technology adoption level and try to find the current size highways, and bridges, this technology can quickly notify the
of the market, along with any other relevant forecasts or data. appropriate official when there is a necessary repair that can affect
Next, they define an event to forecast, which is typically when a safety. Additionally, this immediate notification can reduce the
certain technological reaches the 30% threshold of adoption. costs associated with wasted heating or lighting, or even decrease
Finally, the moderators search for cons that may slow down the the amount of waste output by industrial systems [7].
rate of adoption, such as political barriers, cultural concerns, and The development of sensor technology and its lowering price is an
also pros such as changes in technology and recent investments. It important factor in the adoption of the Internet of Things
is not until the third phase that the expert panelists are involved. technology, according to the TechCast forecast [7]. Chips known
The experts respond online and try to make sense of all of the as RFID chips are widely used to track objects because they are
information the moderators have provided. If they are not cost-effective. With each increasing development of this sensor
technology, the tagged thing becomes a smart object [7, 8].
Metabolic monitoring technology is another innovation that
adheres to a humans skin and can make it easier for doctors to
detect metabolic problems in patients and for coaches to fine-tune
athletes training routines [7].

2.2.2 Obstacles Opposing the Adoption of IoT


Technology
The Internet of Things TechCast forecast brings up privacy as a
large concern that may oppose the adoption of these technologies
[7]. As more and more data is gathered about the state of objects
and humans, without direct human input, the risk of misuse
increases. These smart systems will become more and more
complex, leading to additional concerns about privacy and Figure 3. Predicted Market Saturation ($B) [5]
perhaps the inability of the average person to understand the
nuances of information security [7]. Because IoT is such a new
technology, there is a consistent lack of consensus around
technical and regulatory solutions [10]. Both companies and
governmental organizations will have to put a lot of effort into
tracking exactly what information is being collected, and how to
best protect customers and constituents, so large amounts of
capital will go into merely regulating these systems. The fact that
many industries must be actively involved in creating a truly
connected Internet of Things is another obstacle that this
technology will face. It may prove to be very difficult to
coordinate the efforts of these industries in an effective manner
[5]. Figure 4. TechCast Expert Confidence (%) [5]

2.3 TechCast Results 3. THE TREND FORECAST


According to the TechCast forecast regarding the Internet of 3.1 Trend Forecasting Method
Things, experts say that this phenomenon will connect 30% of 2.2.1 Background of the Trend Forecast Method
cars, homes, factories, and other systems by about 2020 [3]. 30%
is often a critical point of market adoption in traditional
Used
technology trend curves because it is when the technology begins Trend forecasting is the act of analyzing and extrapolating
to hit the mainstream. The market saturation, by this same historical quantitative data about technology trends in order to
estimate, is predicted to be between $1.1 to 5 trillion [3]. The empower decision-makers with information about the future of the
mean expert confidence level is 69%, and 36 experts were technology in question [11]. Trend forecasting is important to
involved in the forecasting [3]. The standard deviation for the combine with qualitative analysis to provide a comprehensive
expected year that this event will occur is 2 years, which suggests analysis of the technology trend using multiple disparate
that the panelists had a reasonable level of agreement [3]. approaches. The mathematical nature of technology trends has
been prevalent throughout history, because of the forces
associated with market demand and innovation. Quantitative
trends can be extrapolated past the current year even if the new
technology that will be used at a future date is not known because
researchers and scientists have been proven to sidestep the
physical or chemical limitations of any one specific method in
producing a technology, by innovating and developing another
technology to achieve the same goal [11]. Any one technique of
developing a technology will often fit what is known as an S-
curve. In the progression of an S-curve, it takes some time to
initially get up to a higher rate of development, and then the high
rate is maintained for some more time, and then ultimately as the
technology starts to reach its physical or chemical limitations, the
Figure 2. Most Likely Year 30% of Cars, Homes, Offices, and rate of development slows down [11].
other Systems are Controlled through the Internet [5]
In order to complete a trend forecast, the forecaster first collects
quantitative data related to the technology in question, such as the
price, number of transistors, market size, or battery life by year.
Then, the forecaster will plot the data on a graph and then
extrapolate exponentially with a line to denote the predicted future
data points, if the data is exponential in nature [11]. In finding my
data, one of my main methods was searching Google Images for
internet of things trends data and finding articles that provided
quantitative graphs of trends related to the technology.
2.2.1 Challenges with Trend Forecasting
A weakness of trend forecasting is that it does not address
potential large events that may happen in the future that may
drastically change the trajectory [11]. For example, if a forecaster
knew about a piece of legislation coming out that may provide
more incentive for the development of a particular technology, it
could positively affect the rate of acceleration of development, so
the actual result would end up being much higher than the
predicted result. Another weakness of trend forecasting is that it
cannot predict other factors such as religious, ethical, or social
factors in the adoption of the technology [11]. For example, a
technology may achieve rapid adoption among its early adopters,
but ultimately fail to thrive in the mainstream market, and thus a
forecast based upon the early data would be significantly higher Figure 3. Number of IoT Devices by Year [13]
than the actual future data. However, these weaknesses can be The data of the market size of M2M systems suggests that the
offset with a larger data set over a larger range of years, and the worldwide revenue opportunity is increasing. There may be a
trend forecast can be put in context with more qualitative analyses point in the future where these systems are so efficient and
of the future of the technology. valuable that they reduce investment and competition and thus
may have a negative effect on the economy, but currently, the
3.2 Quantitative Results total revenue from these systems is expected to increase greatly in
Moores Law is a large factor that will greatly impact the the coming years.
development of the sensors associated with the Internet of Things.
Moores Law states that the number of transistors on a chip will
double roughly every 24 months, and the data for the past 40
years has proven that this trend will continue [12]. This is
significant for decreasing the size and increasing the processing
power of the sensors on the physical objects because the smaller
and less obtrusive the sensors are, the easier it will be to track the
necessary objects and the more capabilities these smart objects
will have. For example, more transistors on a chip will allow the
sensors that track the vitals of humans to be more discrete and
more capabilities could be built into these smart sensors.
Additionally, the price of these smart sensors could decrease,
driving the rate of market adoption.

Figure 4. Mobile M2M Market in Billions of $US [14]


The impact of a growing demand for the Internet of Things
technology, a growing market opportunity, and a possible
decrease in the efficiency and costs of the sensors used would
surely increase the total amount of data collected in the world,
especially in the case in which much of this data can be captured
without human intervention. The number of exabytes used per
month is increasing exponentially, and the Internet of Things will
surely facilitate this trend.

Figure 2. Moores Law [12]

Futhermore, the number of devices globally connected to the


Internet that are in use is increasing exponentially. The demand
for smart objects and the innovation associated with this
technology is driving this adoption. However, an increase of
globally accessible information about production of goods, prices,
and supply chains could also harm competition in an extended
sense [13]. Competition would be harmed in the case where the Figure 5. Number of exabytes used worldwide per month [15]
information collected from these M2M systems would replace 3.3 Conclusion
much of the value from research and development, so less money A challenge with this trend forecast is that the Internet of Things
could be spent on innovation [13]. is a relatively new term, so there is not extensive historical data
with which to extrapolate. More data points from past years would threshold is too high, the forecast may lose effectiveness because
ensure that future projections are more accurate. The data used for the prediction will be made too late, and so the decision maker
this trend forecast was adequately reliable but was not updated, so will not have as much advance notice. If the threshold is too low,
a few data points from recent years are missing, which could the chance that the prediction will hold true gets lower, which
improve the accuracy of the forecast. may lead to an inaccurate forecast. Threshold setting depends on
Additionally, this trend forecast would benefit from data on the the judgment of the forecaster, which may introduce bias or
amount of information captured and processed by devices and human error. The fact that monitor forecasts only utilize one
objects connected through the Internet of Things alone. An individuals evaluation of factors in the environment is a
analysis of the rate of increase in information captured by these disadvantage over the classic Delphi method, in which the
M2M devices, compared with the information captured in the opinions of multiple experts are compared and consolidated [18].
early days of the Internet through human input means, would However, a strength associated with the forecaster creating the
provide a strong reference frame for the expected growth of data monitor forecast is that the forecaster will be often more familiar
utilized by the network. with the proper methods of forecasting, more aware of possible
personal biases, and may consider a wider range of types of
In summary, this trend forecast should empower decision-makers factors to consider, such as political, social, or managerial [18].
with an outline of the exponential growth of the Internet of Things
market and technology. This forecast sheds lights on two 4.2 Findings of Monitor Forecast
prominent factors driving the Internet of Things market. The first
factor is that the exponential increase of connected objects 4.2.2 Market Competition Factors
provides opportunities for product creators to interface with these Market adoption of connected hardware and software networks
objects and utilize information already made available. The has been growing quickly, but market factors have proven to be an
second factor is the market demand for this technology is obstacle in further adoption. The rapidly growing Internet of
increasing because it has large benefits both for consumers and Things market has also given rise to new technology start-ups
businesses. As a result of these predictions, the development of gaining traction, and the major technology players such as Apple,
this kind of technology may likely result in a large return on Google, and Samsung each compete to provide a superior M2M
investment. network of devices [22]. However, the outcome of this
competition is that there exists a race between these companies
4. THE MONITOR FORECAST to own the vertical stack rather than develop products or services
that benefit consumers and developers [22]. As a result, these
4.1 Monitor Forecast Methodology companies have been developing hardware that only works with
The forecasting technique of monitoring is useful in predicting
the companys existing software. Additionally, the lack of open-
breakthroughs in a field of technology [18]. A breakthrough is
source in these projects, meaning core components of products
defined as an advance past physical or chemical limitations of a
can not be improved and altered by a community of software
current technology by using a new method or technique [18].
developers, leads to higher production costs, a lower level of
Breakthroughs can be predicted due to the nature of technology
customer responsiveness, and less integration between platforms.
development as a series of overlapping S-curves. An S-curve
For example, in the iOS operating system version 7 for Apples
reflects the progression of a particular technology technique in
mobile devices, the company introduced integration with
which it slowly advances in the beginning, then hits the
iBeacons, small Bluetooth LTE transmitters that can communicate
mainstream market and grows quickly, and then growth slows
with mobile devices, thus coupling the companys own hardware
toward the end as chemical or physical limitations or market
and software [23].
saturation are being reached. Forecasters monitor technologies
during the critical first part of this graph, in which a new
technique achieves slow but steady growth, in order to predict
which techniques will achieve sustained growth and overtake
current methods.
There are four steps involved in creating a monitoring forecast
[18]. The first step is collecting, in which the forecaster brings in
relevant information and decides which sources are important to
monitor, and to what degree. The next step is to screen these
sources for significance in order to remove from consideration all
items that are not relevant to the target audience of the forecast.
The third step is evaluating the significance of the information
allowed in the system in relation to the target audience. The
forecaster should then observe past trends in the technology
subject matter to determine if the types of factors being
considered in fact indicated changes or breakthroughs in the field.
After thorough evaluation of the items included in the information
system, the final step is to set a threshold indicating at which point Figure 2. Apples iBeacons and iPhone [23]
the evidence will be strong enough to enable the forecaster to
make a prediction. These thresholds can be quantitative, such as However, many smaller companies such as the emerging
the monitor turbine compression ratio of engines in predicting the SmartThings have been competitive with larger companies [19].
arrival of the jet engine [18]. With SmartThings, a user can connect sensors that detect a range
of simple environmental factors, including GPS, to a number of
A unique challenge with the monitor forecast approach lies in devices to customize a simple IoT system.
setting the threshold at which to make a prediction [18]. If the
software updates in potentially power-limited network-connected
electronic devices, a unique feature of the M2M system [16]. A
special process for updating the device is required because other
known methods of software updates often assume that the device
is constantly connected to a power source, which may not be the
case regarding the Nest Thermostat.

4.2.2.2 Perpetuum Ltd. Patent for Harvesting Energy


through Vibrations
In order to keep maintenance on Internet-connected devices low,
the battery life must be increased but may contain the tradeoffs of
limiting how small the product could be or making it more
expensive to produce [22]. Perpetuum Ltd. has provided a
Figure 2. Possible SmartThings sensor configurations [19] solution to this problem by creating a battery that can charge itself
using vibrations. The technique utilizes an electromechanical
On Googles official blog, on March 18th, 2014, the technology generator for converting mechanical vibrational energy into
company announced Android Wear, which is a smartwatch based electrical energy, in order to power a device [20]. This small
off of Googles operating system, Android [24]. The new battery could generate electricity to power physical devices that
technology will allow developers to create apps for the are not connected to a power source, such as the Nest Thermostat.
smartwatch, based off of a version of the Android operating
system available on many mobile phones, thus further packaging
the companys software with new hardware products. This
indicates that the trend of companies integrating vertically is
continuing. More complex systems such as Android Wear, which
provide greater customization opportunities in the form of apps,
may outpace the systems of the smaller companies like
SmartThings that will not be able to compete with the advanced
operating systems of the larger technology companies.

4.2.2 Technological Factors


The increasing number of connected devices will introduce power
challenges, especially because many of these devices will be
mobile, and thus will not be connected to a central power source,
and also include increasingly sophisticated power-consuming
sensors [22]. Thus, techniques must be developed to harvest and
retain energy on a device, and processes that interact with the
device must be updated for minimal energy consumption. Two
leaders in patents in this industry are Nest Labs, which has created
an integrated thermostat/HVAC system, and Perpetuum Ltd.,
which has created a special type of battery that utilizes vibrations
to harvest energy. Figure 3. Harvesting energy through vibrations [20]
4.2.2.1 Nest Labs Patent for Updating Software on a 4.3 Conclusion
Thermostat Remotely In conclusion, advancements regarding power consumption will
improve the battery life of the devices connected to the Internet,
but the industry will be fragmented by the lack of integration
among these networks. Larger technology companies such as
Apple and Google will be able to leverage their robust operating
systems to gain market share, a distinct advantage over smaller
competitors. Patents relating to the Internet of Things largely deal
with the problem of energy consumption. Nests patent for
updating software on a device that is not connected to a central
power source is customized to reduce energy consumption in
connected physical devices, while Perpetuum Ltd.s patent
introduces a new form of battery that focuses on harvesting
energy from naturally occurring energy. A breakthrough in the
energy consumption or generation of connected devices could
Figure 4. Updating Software on a Thermostat [21] mean less maintenance for the devices, and more objects could be
easily connected. This is significant because if 24 billion devices
Nest Labs is one of the leaders of the Internet of Things industry. are connected by 2020, an energy breakthrough could reduce the
The companys most famous product is the Nest Thermostat,
price of these devices and further encourages the adoption of IoT
which not only has a revolutionarily intuitive design, but also
networks and products [16].
connects to the Internet and performs energy consumption
analysis to save users money on energy costs. Nest Labs filed a
patent in 2012 on their process for performing user-friendly
5. THE SCENARIO FORECAST Free-for-all More Efficient Society
5.1 SCENARIO FORECASTING Widespread adoption The Internet is brought
of IoT systems, but high into the physical world and

Accepted
METHODOLOGY
exposure to data-related data is secure
5.1.2 Method Overview crime and misuse

Cultural Acceptance
Forecasters use the scenario technique in tandem with other The technology grows
High technology quickly and dependence is
methods such as Delphi, monitoring, and trend forecasting, in dependence
order to predict the future of a technology with respect to key inevitable
factors, such as economic and cultural. These scenarios are
defined as alternative descriptions of the business environment Taboo Technology Stigmatized
[2a]. This type of forecasting is so effective because it

Not Accepted
acknowledges the innate uncertainty of technology forecasting The public is Public still wary of the
and doesnt seek to remove it, but rather to explore all possible distrustful of the new technology, even though it
outcomes related to the uncertainty. This method is particularly technology is secure
effective when there is a complex or uncertain environment [2a]. Wide adoption is not Technology used in the
achieved workplace, but not in the
The Tomorrow Project is a notable form of scenario forecasting,
in which authors create futuristic stories that predict the intended home
and unintended consequences of the development of particular
technologies [3a]. Notably, the story called The Blink Of An Eye 6. POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
examines the rise of artificial intelligence conveniences such as 6.1 Scenario I: Free-for-all
smart responsive homes, but reveals the possible unintended A large increase in crime will occur in regards to the IoT
consequence of the increasing dependence of humans on technology at the intersection of mass adoption and poorly
technology. effective regulation. The result of the ineffective regulation may
Scenario forecasting works by isolating a few key factors in not be a lack of the people and the government realizing the
predicting a particular technologys path. These factors can be importance of the issue of privacy and security. Instead, it may be
economic, political, intellectual, cultural, technological, a result of the inability to allocate enough resources to sufficiently
ecological, religious-ethical, managerial, or social [18]. In police the exponentially growing set of information and ward off
scenario forecasting, it is necessary for the forecaster to choose the increasingly sophisticated capabilities of malicious hackers.
factors that both have a large impact and have a large spread of The data set will be growing so quickly because the technology
possible outcomes, so that the scenarios will focus on those has reached market adoption, and thus will likely have permeated
factors that are most important and variable. key processes that consumers are reliant on, such as point-of-sale,
transportation, or bureaucratic. Additionally, large corporations
5.2 Key Environmental Factors will see a large benefit in directed marketing, and as a result of the
The two most important factors in predicting the adoption of the recent April 2014 law, McCutcheon v. Citizens United, that
Internet of Things are cultural acceptance, and the level of passed and removed the limit for corporate campaign
effective political regulation on security and privacy. Cultural contributions, these companies will pressure politicians to remove
acceptance is critical because people can be wary of new data- regulation that could block their marketing efforts [4a]. The free-
collecting technologies, especially when the data is being for-all concept is not truly free for all, but free for the elite that
collected automatically and inadvertently from the user. In this have the resources to take advantage of the technology, which
case, in the mind of the user, the risk of sensitive data about the may further increase the inequality gap in society.
users possessions, behaviors, or even location might outweigh the
benefits. On the other hand, it is clear that people getting more 6.2 Scenario II: More Efficient Society
comfortable with sharing more information, with the rise of social A more efficient society will occur when political regulation
media, location-based services, and health trackers. around IoT technology is effective, and there is widespread
cultural acceptance, and thus, mainstream market adoption. Both
The level of the effectiveness of regulations around security and businesses and consumers will use the technology, and there will
privacy is also critical to the adoption of the Internet of Things be no major data breaches severe enough to damage the
technology because actual and perceived data vulnerability can confidence of the consumer in the technology. The political
increase the relative costs of adopting the technology, for both regulation around the IoT technology will be consistent and
consumers and businesses. This effectiveness will augmented by effective, and the average consumer will feel safe allowing these
three factors: the readiness of the public to understand the devices to collect data. As a result, the IoT technology will be
consequences of security and privacy breaches, the allocation of adopted to its fullest potential. Publicly available data on
resources and the prioritization of the issue on the political infrastructure or population statistics will interact with corporate
agenda, and the capabilities of the technology to ward off hacking data, and will be augmented by the data on consumer behaviour
attacks. that the smart objects collect.
5.3 Scenario Matrix 6.3 Scenario III: Taboo Technology
Table 1. 2x2 matrix of IoT Scenarios People will view IoT as a Taboo technology if the political
Security Regulation Effectiveness regulation is ineffective and cultural acceptance is low. The low
Ineffective Effective level of cultural acceptance will likely be worsened by the
ineffective regulation, and this scenario may have been caused by
a large data breach catastrophe. This April 2014, a large security
flaw called Heartbleed was discovered in one of the widely used
Secure Socket Layer mechanism that underpins many secure the fridge. She grunted in half-response. Delbert wasnt surprised.
Internet transactions [4a]. The security breach reached mainstream He thought sometimes that he was the only person in the world
media and lowered public confidence in online transactions, and if that worried about data, and everyone else was just content
the data being exposed was not just financial, but health or enjoying the conveniences of this new technology.
personal location related, the implications of a breach would be Delbert was deep in thought about the new worrisome Walmart
much greater [4a]. Such a catastrophe on more sensitive data initiative, as he continued getting ready upstairs for the next 30
collected by IoT technology could greatly decrease consumer minutes. He distractedly walked down the stairs, bid Shannon
confidence and lower the amount of data flowing through these goodbye, and walked out the door at the exact same moment that
IoT systems. his driverless cab was pulling up. As he got in the front seat, he
6.4 Scenario IV: Stigmatized noticed his implant felt warm and an advertisement for an anti-
In the fourth scenario, the government will be able to effectively anxiety medication pulled up on the dashboard. Strange, he
regulate privacy and security, but the public will still not be able thought, I feel like I only get these kinds of advertisements when
to culturally accept the innovations. This perception could be Im upset. But no, its not possible The abrupt stop of the cab
related to a possible privacy breach with another information interrupted his thoughts and he gazed out the window to the top of
system, or the general tendency of the public to resist the the massive 120-story building where he worked. He exited the
saturation of their lives with personal technology that seeks to cab reluctantly, only to run into his boss, Winston.
quantify the individual. If the cultural bias limits the technology Hey champ, Winston grinned and aggressively clasped
from reaching mainstream adoption, it will be much easier for the Delberts shoulder in a death grip, Just the person I wanted to
government to allocate the resources to police the IoT systems to see. Can you come to my office for a minute? Delbert smiled
make sure that they are, in fact, reliable. faintly and agreed to follow him to his office on the 30th floor.
They passed rows and rows of cubicles where some workers had
7. SCENARIO I: RED BLINKING up to 5 or 6 monitors surrounding them. The pair passed Delberts
LIGHT desk on the 28th floor in the Industrial Efficiency department,
Delbert Gibson opened his eyes feeling energized and refreshed which uses sensors and data analysis to reduce waste for clients.
on a brisk February morning in 2040. As his vision started to This department is a huge moneymaker for the firm, so Delbert
focus, he instinctively reached out his hand to his nightstand to found himself seeing more than hed like of Winston.
turn off the alarm clock, only to remember it was not there. He Once they arrived at his office, a stern-looking man in all black
smiled, pleased with his recent investment in the implantable wrist who didnt introduce himself was standing in the corner of the
FitBit update that tracks the users heart rate and brain waves, and room. Sit down, Winston ordered cheerfully as Delbert obliged.
sends a pulse to wake them up at the optimal time. He never used Before Delbert had time to react, Winston leaned forward across
to be a morning person. Delbert strutted down the marble staircase the desk and explained, Delbert, we have reason to believe you
and into the kitchen. The room was painted bright yellow and full are no longer engaged at work and were going to have to let you
to the brim of knick-knacks, like a scene from the TLC Hoarders go. Delbert blinked a few times, astonished, as Winston held his
show that went off the air in 2014. gaze in a way that suggested Delbert was not to ask any questions.
His wife Shannon was sitting at the counter reading her tablet. Hi Delbert looked down at the tiny patch on his wrist under which his
honey, how was your update? she asked, her brow wrinkled with implant lay. A faint red light under his skin flickered and realized
curiosity. Amazing, Delbert replied, I feel optimally he had made a huge mistake.
refreshed. At that instant, the food processor beeped and he
smelled mint-chocolate pancakes with the perfect balance of 8. TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT OF
carbohydrates and sugar for him. At the same time, his IOT
smartwatch buzzed, indicating that the cab sensed his urgency and The greatest desirable, direct, and anticipated consequences of the
was on its way. Why are you up so early? Delbert asked Internet of Things technology is making the consumers life easier
Shannon. She shot him a look and sarcastically replied, Not by bringing information technology into the physical world.
everyone has the job security of a Connector. Delbert Allowing devices to collect information about a users behaviour,
remembered back when she would get up earlier than him, when or even about a system, is more convenient than a human directly
she was a world-renowned diplomacy expert. He recalled the day recording the information and inputting it into the Internet. This
in 2030 when data was growing at such an alarming rate that the advancement removes the upper limit on data that can be
government issued a statement that they would close their borders collected, by removing human intervention, which will lead to
and sever all ties with other countries permanently for security greater data analysis, efficiencies, and a greater understanding of
reasons, because any one country had the power to destroy the physical world.
another by stealing data. The government had accepted that the
The undesirable, indirect, and unanticipated consequences of the
capabilities of hackers had grown to the point where data breaches
Internet of Things technology is data breaches and misuse.
were inevitable, but now in 2045, it was something that politicians
Maintaining privacy around a large amount of information
swept under the rug. necessitates sophisticated security protocols, but the mass of data
Another buzz sounded, indicating something had come to the could grow so quickly that proper security can not be achieved.
package window. It was a tube of toothpaste from Walmart. The result could be a breach in very sensitive personal
Apparently Delbert only had enough for two more days. The information, related to a persons health or location, or highly
package came with a small sample of Bisquik pancake mix. specific proprietary information.
Delbert felt uneasy as he realized the store was pulling
The IoT system could lead to a wider inequality gap, because
information from peoples food processors now, and there was no
large companies or wealthy people that have the means to take
way to prove or regulate it. Walmarts in our food processors advantage of these technologies can reap large benefits. A
now, he said to Shannon, grabbing the Bisquik and putting it in
company that uses IoT systems to do greater market analysis and
reduce inefficiencies in manufacturing can greatly outpace smaller 7.pdf?auth66=1393665544_f6a7f6e7b729265351f04cc97c6f
companies trying to get off the ground. At its extreme, this fact 4412&ext=.pdf.
could lead to a lack of creative destruction, which could have [14] SIDECO, F. 2010. Rise of the Machine-to-Machine:
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In conclusion, the second scenario is most likely, that there be https://www.isuppli.com/Mobile-and-Wireless-
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could affect the adoption of the technology by either diminishing http://online.wsj.com/news/articles/SB100014240527023037
consumer demand, or exposing the technology for data breaches. 14704576382881346397502.
9. RESULTS [16] FEHRENBACHER, K. 2012. 5 ways to power the Internet of
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encompasses any physical device equipped with sensors that can capabilities with new applications and integration with other
measure acceleration, heat, moisture, human vitals, sound, and products, advancing digital revolution in home lighting.
other factors, and includes but is not limited to smartphones, http://www.newscenter.philips.com/us_en/standard/news/pre
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