Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Marissa Montgomery
Vanderbilt University
2301 Vanderbilt Place
PMB 355632
(941) 807-6044
marissamarymontgomery@gmail.com
ABSTRACT terabytes) of data available on the Internet were first captured and
The Internet of Things (IoT), in which physical objects and people created by human beings [1].
are equipped with smart sensors connected to a network of
computers, has the potential to collect and utilize unprecedented
amounts of data from events in the physical world.
Microprocessor size and sensor technology is enabling advances
in the Internet of Things, but privacy concerns around the vast
amount of data these sensors will collect may slow down the rate
of adoption. In creating this forecast, a variation of the Delphi
method known as TechCast was used. Some factors driving the
adoption of the IoT technology are its effect of safety and
effiency, and the lowering price of sensor technology. Two factors
opposing the adoption of this new technology are privacy
concerns, and efforts to coordinate between industries. The Delphi
TechCast forecast came to the conclusion, with a mean of a 69%
confidence level, that the Internet of Things technology will reach
a 30% adoption share by 2020, and a share of the market valued
between $1.1 and $5 trillion [5].
Figure 1. A FitBit device tracking miles walked [3]
Keywords
Internet of Things, RFID, Delphi forecast, TechCast, sensors, The problem with the Internet of Things and the M2M network is
Nest it is not yet large enough to effectively interface between systems.
The effectiveness of any M2M system depends largely on the
1. INTRODUCTION number of other devices it can connect to, and thus process data
Today, many objects are not being tracked, and humans from, so the more connected objects, the more effective. For
themselves are entering much of the information used by the example, the aforementioned treadmill and heart monitor system
Internet [1]. However, the rise of the Internet of Things has been could be enhanced by connections with the users shoes, to alter
increasing the total amount of information collected by using arch support accordingly, or the users mobile device, to track
sensors from objects, humans, and even animals to collect data. calories burned.
This practice is being implemented in manufacturing to keep track Currently, many objects are both controlled and accessible by the
of inventory and products shipped, but also is being used in the same user that utilizes its data. For example, the intention of a
home and by the consumer with wearable devices such as the FitBit is to collect fitness data about the wearer and provide this
FitBit [3]. Another common term for the Internet of Things is information in a useful fashion to the wearer of the device [3]. As
M2M, or Machine to Machine. This term further explains the the number of devices expands, the usefulness of information may
usefulness of embedding sensors and advanced capabilities into cross into other industries, and the information collected may be
physical objects. For example, a Machine-to-Machine system may utilized not only directly by the user of the object, but by third
include a heart monitor, which tracks the status of a human being, party users or devices as well. While this complicates the privacy
a physical entity, that communicates with the treadmill that the issues associated with tracking objects, animals, and people, it
human is running on, in order to increase the speed to achieve also provides for a more interconnected web of information,
optimal physical performance [2]. Metabolic monitoring essentially bringing the Internet into the real world [5].
technology such as this example can make it easier for doctors to
detect metabolic problems in patients and for coaches to fine-tune This article will forecast the prevalence of physical objects
athletes training routines [5]. The distinguishing factor between connected through the Internet of Things. The purpose of this
the Internet of Things and objects that are merely tagged with forecast is to inform the makers of Machine-to-Machine (M2M)
sensors or codes is that the former involves smart objects, which systems on how quickly the number of connected objects is
can sense, log, and interpret whats occurring within themselves growing, so that they can anticipate how large the pool of objects
and the world, act on their own, intercommunicate with each to interface will be at any given time, in order to adjust product
other, and exchange information with people [smart objects as requirements and strategize for the future.
building blocks]. The fact that with these smart objects, a lot of
data can be collected without human intervention is very
significant in increasing the amount of data worldwide because
nearly all of the roughly 50 petabytes (a petabyte is 1,024
2. THE DELPHI FORECAST comfortable with the subject area, they are encouraged to not
respond. In the fourth phase, a computer system calculates
2.1 The Delphi Methodology statistics based on the experts predictions. In phase five, the most
2.1.2 Introduction to the Delphi Method recent TechCast forecast on that subject area is updated to reflect
the new data and opinions collected, and TechCast performs
The Delphi Method is used to collect and analyze the opinions of
analysis to discover the nature of experts who tend to provide
experts for a specific subject area in order to predict certain events
more accurate forecasts [5].
related to a technology subject area [4]. The goal is to benefit
from the collective wisdom of the experts involved while 2.1.2.2 Evaluation of the TechCast Methodology
diminishing the effects of any biases or misinformation. This The most obvious way in which the TechCast Delphi method
method is particularly useful when used in tandem with data and differs from the classic Delphi Method is the former gathers vast
statistics related to the progression of the technology. It can amounts of information for the panelists before beginning the
compensate for the weaknesses associated with statistical process. While this might increase the level of accuracy of the
evidence, such as a restricted ability to predict cultural, ethical, or responses because accurate background information is provided, it
religious considerations, or the presence of external events that also introduces the possibility of bias. There will inherently be
may influence technology adoption [4]. bias in collecting the data, especially in the more qualitative forms
The main principles that differentiate the Delphi process are the of data such as the pros and cons driving the adoption of the
level of anonymity, statistical analysis of the panelists responses, technology. Thus, the moderators will play a much larger role in
and the iterative nature of the rounds [4]. The classical Delphi influencing the opinions of panelists in the TechCast Delphi
method involves four rounds, in which moderators provide variation.
panelists with increasing amounts of information and panelists Another major difference between the TechCast Delphi method
refine their estimates. In the first round, the moderators offer the and the classic Delphi method is that the panelists come from a
panelists a completely unstructured questionnaire and ask them to large pool of experts, and they each choose to participate in the
choose likely future events in the subject area, and predict a date forecasts that they feel most comfortable with [5]. This reflects a
for when they believe these events will occur. The moderator then different process not of the moderators choosing the panelists for
consolidates the forecasts, and chooses which events were most the forecast, but of the experts choosing to be panelists for the
cited in order to structure the questionnaire for the second round. forecast. This feature is an asset for TechCast because it guards
In the second round, panelists receive this questionnaire with a list against any bias moderators may have in choosing experts, and
of events and are asked to estimate the timeline for each event. panelists will tend to have less personal biases because it is likely
The moderators then take this information and prepare a statistical that fewer of them will be in industries concerned with the subject
summary of the responses, including the degree of spread of the area in question. If an expert is in a relevant industry, there is a
experts opinions [4]. The moderators give the panelists another chance that he or she will unconsciously choose to believe a
questionnaire altered for the third round, which includes the prediction due to the fact that he or she has a stake in the
predictions of other experts, the medians, and the statistical implications.
quartiles for each event. The panelists then have the option to
The TechCast method further benefits from its principle of
change their estimates and must provide reasoning if their
iterating on the forecast in a subject area every year and
estimates land in the lower or higher quartile. In the fourth and
evaluating how the forecast may have changed [5]. This is an
final round, the moderators calculate the statistics again, and
advantage because moderators can quickly assess if the previous
provide the panelists with the predicted dates for the events, and
forecast was on the right track, and combine the knowledge of two
the panelists reasoning for changing estimates. The panelists then
forecasts in order to increase accuracy. This method also has the
comment on the arguments, and the moderators calculate the final
added benefit of permitting moderators to extrapolate possible
forecasts, with measures of agreement, and summaries of critical
results by viewing the progression of forecasts over time [5].
issues [4].
Accepted
METHODOLOGY
exposure to data-related data is secure
5.1.2 Method Overview crime and misuse
Cultural Acceptance
Forecasters use the scenario technique in tandem with other The technology grows
High technology quickly and dependence is
methods such as Delphi, monitoring, and trend forecasting, in dependence
order to predict the future of a technology with respect to key inevitable
factors, such as economic and cultural. These scenarios are
defined as alternative descriptions of the business environment Taboo Technology Stigmatized
[2a]. This type of forecasting is so effective because it
Not Accepted
acknowledges the innate uncertainty of technology forecasting The public is Public still wary of the
and doesnt seek to remove it, but rather to explore all possible distrustful of the new technology, even though it
outcomes related to the uncertainty. This method is particularly technology is secure
effective when there is a complex or uncertain environment [2a]. Wide adoption is not Technology used in the
achieved workplace, but not in the
The Tomorrow Project is a notable form of scenario forecasting,
in which authors create futuristic stories that predict the intended home
and unintended consequences of the development of particular
technologies [3a]. Notably, the story called The Blink Of An Eye 6. POSSIBLE SCENARIOS
examines the rise of artificial intelligence conveniences such as 6.1 Scenario I: Free-for-all
smart responsive homes, but reveals the possible unintended A large increase in crime will occur in regards to the IoT
consequence of the increasing dependence of humans on technology at the intersection of mass adoption and poorly
technology. effective regulation. The result of the ineffective regulation may
Scenario forecasting works by isolating a few key factors in not be a lack of the people and the government realizing the
predicting a particular technologys path. These factors can be importance of the issue of privacy and security. Instead, it may be
economic, political, intellectual, cultural, technological, a result of the inability to allocate enough resources to sufficiently
ecological, religious-ethical, managerial, or social [18]. In police the exponentially growing set of information and ward off
scenario forecasting, it is necessary for the forecaster to choose the increasingly sophisticated capabilities of malicious hackers.
factors that both have a large impact and have a large spread of The data set will be growing so quickly because the technology
possible outcomes, so that the scenarios will focus on those has reached market adoption, and thus will likely have permeated
factors that are most important and variable. key processes that consumers are reliant on, such as point-of-sale,
transportation, or bureaucratic. Additionally, large corporations
5.2 Key Environmental Factors will see a large benefit in directed marketing, and as a result of the
The two most important factors in predicting the adoption of the recent April 2014 law, McCutcheon v. Citizens United, that
Internet of Things are cultural acceptance, and the level of passed and removed the limit for corporate campaign
effective political regulation on security and privacy. Cultural contributions, these companies will pressure politicians to remove
acceptance is critical because people can be wary of new data- regulation that could block their marketing efforts [4a]. The free-
collecting technologies, especially when the data is being for-all concept is not truly free for all, but free for the elite that
collected automatically and inadvertently from the user. In this have the resources to take advantage of the technology, which
case, in the mind of the user, the risk of sensitive data about the may further increase the inequality gap in society.
users possessions, behaviors, or even location might outweigh the
benefits. On the other hand, it is clear that people getting more 6.2 Scenario II: More Efficient Society
comfortable with sharing more information, with the rise of social A more efficient society will occur when political regulation
media, location-based services, and health trackers. around IoT technology is effective, and there is widespread
cultural acceptance, and thus, mainstream market adoption. Both
The level of the effectiveness of regulations around security and businesses and consumers will use the technology, and there will
privacy is also critical to the adoption of the Internet of Things be no major data breaches severe enough to damage the
technology because actual and perceived data vulnerability can confidence of the consumer in the technology. The political
increase the relative costs of adopting the technology, for both regulation around the IoT technology will be consistent and
consumers and businesses. This effectiveness will augmented by effective, and the average consumer will feel safe allowing these
three factors: the readiness of the public to understand the devices to collect data. As a result, the IoT technology will be
consequences of security and privacy breaches, the allocation of adopted to its fullest potential. Publicly available data on
resources and the prioritization of the issue on the political infrastructure or population statistics will interact with corporate
agenda, and the capabilities of the technology to ward off hacking data, and will be augmented by the data on consumer behaviour
attacks. that the smart objects collect.
5.3 Scenario Matrix 6.3 Scenario III: Taboo Technology
Table 1. 2x2 matrix of IoT Scenarios People will view IoT as a Taboo technology if the political
Security Regulation Effectiveness regulation is ineffective and cultural acceptance is low. The low
Ineffective Effective level of cultural acceptance will likely be worsened by the
ineffective regulation, and this scenario may have been caused by
a large data breach catastrophe. This April 2014, a large security
flaw called Heartbleed was discovered in one of the widely used
Secure Socket Layer mechanism that underpins many secure the fridge. She grunted in half-response. Delbert wasnt surprised.
Internet transactions [4a]. The security breach reached mainstream He thought sometimes that he was the only person in the world
media and lowered public confidence in online transactions, and if that worried about data, and everyone else was just content
the data being exposed was not just financial, but health or enjoying the conveniences of this new technology.
personal location related, the implications of a breach would be Delbert was deep in thought about the new worrisome Walmart
much greater [4a]. Such a catastrophe on more sensitive data initiative, as he continued getting ready upstairs for the next 30
collected by IoT technology could greatly decrease consumer minutes. He distractedly walked down the stairs, bid Shannon
confidence and lower the amount of data flowing through these goodbye, and walked out the door at the exact same moment that
IoT systems. his driverless cab was pulling up. As he got in the front seat, he
6.4 Scenario IV: Stigmatized noticed his implant felt warm and an advertisement for an anti-
In the fourth scenario, the government will be able to effectively anxiety medication pulled up on the dashboard. Strange, he
regulate privacy and security, but the public will still not be able thought, I feel like I only get these kinds of advertisements when
to culturally accept the innovations. This perception could be Im upset. But no, its not possible The abrupt stop of the cab
related to a possible privacy breach with another information interrupted his thoughts and he gazed out the window to the top of
system, or the general tendency of the public to resist the the massive 120-story building where he worked. He exited the
saturation of their lives with personal technology that seeks to cab reluctantly, only to run into his boss, Winston.
quantify the individual. If the cultural bias limits the technology Hey champ, Winston grinned and aggressively clasped
from reaching mainstream adoption, it will be much easier for the Delberts shoulder in a death grip, Just the person I wanted to
government to allocate the resources to police the IoT systems to see. Can you come to my office for a minute? Delbert smiled
make sure that they are, in fact, reliable. faintly and agreed to follow him to his office on the 30th floor.
They passed rows and rows of cubicles where some workers had
7. SCENARIO I: RED BLINKING up to 5 or 6 monitors surrounding them. The pair passed Delberts
LIGHT desk on the 28th floor in the Industrial Efficiency department,
Delbert Gibson opened his eyes feeling energized and refreshed which uses sensors and data analysis to reduce waste for clients.
on a brisk February morning in 2040. As his vision started to This department is a huge moneymaker for the firm, so Delbert
focus, he instinctively reached out his hand to his nightstand to found himself seeing more than hed like of Winston.
turn off the alarm clock, only to remember it was not there. He Once they arrived at his office, a stern-looking man in all black
smiled, pleased with his recent investment in the implantable wrist who didnt introduce himself was standing in the corner of the
FitBit update that tracks the users heart rate and brain waves, and room. Sit down, Winston ordered cheerfully as Delbert obliged.
sends a pulse to wake them up at the optimal time. He never used Before Delbert had time to react, Winston leaned forward across
to be a morning person. Delbert strutted down the marble staircase the desk and explained, Delbert, we have reason to believe you
and into the kitchen. The room was painted bright yellow and full are no longer engaged at work and were going to have to let you
to the brim of knick-knacks, like a scene from the TLC Hoarders go. Delbert blinked a few times, astonished, as Winston held his
show that went off the air in 2014. gaze in a way that suggested Delbert was not to ask any questions.
His wife Shannon was sitting at the counter reading her tablet. Hi Delbert looked down at the tiny patch on his wrist under which his
honey, how was your update? she asked, her brow wrinkled with implant lay. A faint red light under his skin flickered and realized
curiosity. Amazing, Delbert replied, I feel optimally he had made a huge mistake.
refreshed. At that instant, the food processor beeped and he
smelled mint-chocolate pancakes with the perfect balance of 8. TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT OF
carbohydrates and sugar for him. At the same time, his IOT
smartwatch buzzed, indicating that the cab sensed his urgency and The greatest desirable, direct, and anticipated consequences of the
was on its way. Why are you up so early? Delbert asked Internet of Things technology is making the consumers life easier
Shannon. She shot him a look and sarcastically replied, Not by bringing information technology into the physical world.
everyone has the job security of a Connector. Delbert Allowing devices to collect information about a users behaviour,
remembered back when she would get up earlier than him, when or even about a system, is more convenient than a human directly
she was a world-renowned diplomacy expert. He recalled the day recording the information and inputting it into the Internet. This
in 2030 when data was growing at such an alarming rate that the advancement removes the upper limit on data that can be
government issued a statement that they would close their borders collected, by removing human intervention, which will lead to
and sever all ties with other countries permanently for security greater data analysis, efficiencies, and a greater understanding of
reasons, because any one country had the power to destroy the physical world.
another by stealing data. The government had accepted that the
The undesirable, indirect, and unanticipated consequences of the
capabilities of hackers had grown to the point where data breaches
Internet of Things technology is data breaches and misuse.
were inevitable, but now in 2045, it was something that politicians
Maintaining privacy around a large amount of information
swept under the rug. necessitates sophisticated security protocols, but the mass of data
Another buzz sounded, indicating something had come to the could grow so quickly that proper security can not be achieved.
package window. It was a tube of toothpaste from Walmart. The result could be a breach in very sensitive personal
Apparently Delbert only had enough for two more days. The information, related to a persons health or location, or highly
package came with a small sample of Bisquik pancake mix. specific proprietary information.
Delbert felt uneasy as he realized the store was pulling
The IoT system could lead to a wider inequality gap, because
information from peoples food processors now, and there was no
large companies or wealthy people that have the means to take
way to prove or regulate it. Walmarts in our food processors advantage of these technologies can reap large benefits. A
now, he said to Shannon, grabbing the Bisquik and putting it in
company that uses IoT systems to do greater market analysis and
reduce inefficiencies in manufacturing can greatly outpace smaller 7.pdf?auth66=1393665544_f6a7f6e7b729265351f04cc97c6f
companies trying to get off the ground. At its extreme, this fact 4412&ext=.pdf.
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