In Focus: Markets as we see them

The cost of waiting

16 June 2017
For EMEA and Asia distribution only
Inside (click to jump to sections)
Scarred The financial crisis of 2008 still
haunts investors, sometimes to the
extent of making the avoidance of large
losses their primary objective, as opposed
to the seeking of gains
Buying on the dip To see just how much
can be forfeit, we consider a basic
investment strategy of waiting for prices
Mr. Godot told me to tell you he won't come this evening but surely tomorrow. to fall by a certain amount from their all-
time-high before putting our cash to
(Waiting for Godot, Samuel Beckett)
work
Wait and see The wait for larger
Scarred drawdowns is inevitably a longer one,
The financial crisis of 2008 still haunts investors, sometimes to the extent of making and so the average forfeit is by turns
the avoidance of large losses their primary objective. This caution is heightened when even more eye-watering. Even when
taking the initial plunge: surely it pays to wait for a good entry point? The problem waiting for modest drops, youre more
with this approach is that one can all too easily end up perennially perched on the likely to miss out, than miss a dip
sidelines, cash at the ready, waiting for a moment that will never come. All the while, Investment conclusion Would-be
stock markets may climb ever higher, and only eventually stumble down a pothole investors lacking both a time machine
having already scaled a mountain. and the awfully well-rewarded ability to
predict the stock market would be better
Buying on the dip served by aiming to buy now, sell later
much later
To see just how much can be forfeit, lets consider a basic investment strategy of
Market calls summary
waiting for prices to fall by a certain amount from their all-time-high before putting
our cash to work. For example, lets suppose that five years ago, in May 2012, we Selected risks to our views
decided to invest as soon as the end-of-month value of the FTSE 100 recorded a Asset class summary
decline from its maximum a drawdown of 10%. Such a drop would not have The case for investing
been seen until August 2015 (Figure 1) a wait of over three years. By that time,
even after the fall, the total return (including dividends) since May 2012 would have
been 23% (Figure 2). Clearly, it would have been better just to invest from day one.
At the extreme, the forfeit can be immense: a hypothetical investor who waited from
August 1982 for a 10% drawdown in the price of the MSCI World index would have
sat in increasing despair as they watched stocks triple in value even after Black
Monday eventually came along in October 1987 (Figure 3).
Looking at all the potential starting months of this wait for a 10% price drawdown
strategy back as far as the MSCI World index 1 will go (1970), we see a succession of

Figure 1: FTSE 100 price index and drawdowns Figure 2: FTSE 100 index
FTSE 100 price index Drawdown FTSE 100 index (May 2012 = 100)
7,500 0% 160
-2% 150
7,000 -4% Price
140
-6% Total return
6,500 -8% 130

-10% 120
6,000 -12% 110
-14%
100
5,500 -16%
-18% 90

5,000 -20% 80
May-12 May-14 May-16 May-12 May-13 May-14 May-15 May-16 May-17
Source: FactSet, Barclays Source: FactSet, Barclays

1. In reality this wouldnt have been possible, because the MSCI World index was launched in 1986; data prior to this are back-filled.

1 | In Focus | 16 June 2017

 Figure 3: MSCI World index and drawdowns Figure 4: MSCI World returns forfeited by waiting
MSCI World (Aug 1982 = 100) Total return in MSCI World forfeited by waiting until a
250%
500 0% price drawdown of 10% before investing
450
200%
400 -5%
350 Drawdown 150%
300 Price -10%
250 Total return 100%
200 -15%
50%
150
100 -20% 0%
50
0 -25% -50%
Aug-82 Aug-84 Aug-86 Aug-88 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Source: FactSet, Barclays Source: FactSet, Barclays

long periods of very large forfeit total returns, punctuated by times when waiting for a
sell-off has indeed dodged a pullback (Figure 4). Overall, the median forfeit total return
is 15.5%; the mean 28.9%; the probability of losing out 68.3%. But even at those
serendipitous moments when caution is flattered by the look of prescience, the strategy
is predicated on the ability to invest in the midst of market ructions and panicked
headlines if the aim is to avoid short term losses, a plan to jump headlong into a still-
Even when waiting for deepening abyss would be an odd way to go about it.
modest drops, youre Wait and see
more likely to miss out, Of course, the choice of 10% as the threshold was arbitrary but the same general
than miss a dip result holds for different amounts (Figure 5, left hand axis). The wait for larger
drawdowns is inevitably a longer one, and so the average forfeit is by turns even more
eye-watering. Even when waiting for modest drops, youre more likely to miss out, than
miss a dip (Figure 5, right hand axis).
One might argue that waiting for a drawdown before investing would only be sensible if
stock markets are reaching new highs. Does the wait and see approach fare any
better if we restrict our analysis to those occasions when prices hit asphyxiate
altitudes?
Not much. Returning to our example of delaying prospective investment until the MSCI
World records a drawdown of 10%, but this time only if prices are at the highest they
have been for the past year, the picture is still a gloomy one (Figure 6) the median
forfeit total return is 12.6%; the mean 25.6%; the probability of losing out 72.1%.
Looking at local highs over longer horizons seems to lessen the loss (Figure 7), but
never reverses the situation; the same is true regardless of drawdown threshold.

Figure 5: Opportunity cost of waiting Figure 6: MSCI World returns forfeited by waiting
Total return in Mean forfeit (lhs) Total return in MSCI World forfeited by waiting
MSCI World 200% until a price drawdown of 10% before investing if
Median forfeit (lhs) Prob. of losing
forfeited by at 12 month high
waiting out
Probability of losing out 150%
120% by waiting (rhs) 100%
100% 90% 100%
80% 80%
60% 70% 50%
40% 60%
20% 50% 0%
0% 40%
5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% -50%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Wait of price drawdown of...
Source: FactSet, Barclays Source: FactSet, Barclays

2 | In Focus | 16 June 2017

 Figure 7: A wait-and-see approach tends to be a losing strategy, regardless of the time horizon
Total return in MSCI World forfeited Prob. of losing out
35% 100%
Mean forfeit (lhs) Median forfeit (lhs) Probability of losing out by waiting (rhs)
30% 90%
25%
80%
20%
70%
15%
60%
10%

5% 50%

0% 40%
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36
Only wait for drawdown of 10% if prices at high for past months...

Source: FactSet, Barclays

The more selective the Investment conclusion

strategy, the greater the
burden on precognition
In the short term, stock markets are almost as likely to post losses as they are to make
gains. It is therefore always tempting to try to buy low, sell high by waiting for a
decidedly low entry point. But in reality, it is difficult both to identify and to act on these
moments.
By postponing investment, we deprive ourselves of opportunities to share in what has
been a very profitable ride for stocks. Any timing strategy must overcome this temporal
deficit just to break even versus simply buying and holding the more selective the
strategy, the greater the burden on precognition. Instead, would-be investors lacking
both a time machine and the awfully well-rewarded ability to predict the stock market
would be better served by aiming to buy now, sell later much later.

William Morris
Quantitative Analyst
william.morris@barclays.com

3 | In Focus | 16 June 2017

 Market calls summary Christian Theis, CFA +44 (0)20 3555 8409
christian.theis@barclays.com
Macro economy summary
Evidence that we are entering what tends to be known as the high
conviction phase of the economic recovery is building. The globally Investment conclusions
synchronised economic pick up long predicted by the private sector
surveys is now starting to unevenly appear in the hard economic data Strategically: corporate securities preferred
from corporate earnings to trade statistics. to government, and stocks to bonds
Despite a tight labour market, characterised by multiplying shortages of Valuations are high in the US stock market,
labour, inflationary pressures in the US remain benign so far. The but more normal elsewhere. Even assuming
relationship between demand and inflation is admittedly looser than some medium term headwind from
the text books would have us believe. Meanwhile, transitory factors valuations, the excess returns available from
have again contributed to the weakness in recent inflation data. For our stocks look attractive in a strategic context
part, we still see inflation picking up from here. relative to high quality bonds.

For now, China remains lower down our global list of concerns. Tactically: we remain overweight equities
Authorities have been tightening monetary policy in order to contain Our current moderate pro risk tactical
systemic financial risks and asset bubbles. Chinas banking sector posture is consistent with our belief that the
remains well capitalised, and the states tight control over the financial world economy remains in good and
sector suggests that a 2008 Lehman-style crisis is unlikely. improving health, but likely entering the last,
More broadly, we believe the world economy will continue to grow and potentially multi-year, phase of this
still see the cycle end as a relatively distant prospect. We are elongated economic cycle.
nonetheless on the look out for signs of cyclical excess. In such a
context we welcome moves towards a more normal monetary
backdrop in the developed world.

Total returns across key asset classes

Cash & Short-maturity Bonds 0.4% 2016

0.3%
2017 (through 15 Jun)
Developed Government Bonds 3.9%
1.4%
Investment Grade Bonds 6.2%
3.5%

High Yield and Emerging Markets Bonds 12.2%

7.3%

Developed Markets Equities 7.5%

10.6%

Emerging Markets Equities 11.2%

17.2%
11.8%
Commodities -7.2%

Real Estate 4.1%

6.9%
2.5%
Alternative Trading Strategies*
2.6%
*As of 14th June; Source: FactSet, Barclays. List of indices used: Cash & Short-Maturity Bonds: Barclays US T-Bills (USD); Developed Government Bonds: Barclays Global Treasury (USD Hgd);
Investment Grade Bonds: Barclays Global Aggregate - Corporates (USD Hgd); High Yield & Emerging Market Bonds: 40% BAML US High Yield Master II Constrained TR (USD Hgd), 30% JPM
EMBI Global Diversified TR, 30% JPM GBI-EM Global Diversified TR; Developed Market Equities: MSCI World Net TR (USD); Emerging Market Equities: MSCI EM Net TR (USD); Commodities:
Bloomberg Commodity TR (USD); Real Estate: FTSE EPRA/NAREIT Net TR (USD); ATS: HFRX Global Hedge Fund (USD). 2016 performance data for High Yield and Emerging Market Bonds
calculated based on 40% Barclays Global HY (USD Hgd), 30% Barclays EM Hard Currency Aggregate (USD Hgd), 30% Barclays EM Local Currency Government (USD).

4 | In Focus | 9 June 2017

 Selected risks to our views
US economic slowdown?
A slowdown in US economic activity poses the greatest risk to our
14 year on year growth (%) investment outlook.
12
The current US economic expansion is now in its eighth year, a year
10 longer than the average post-War cycle. This has led many to call,
8 somewhat mechanically, for an imminent recession.
6 However, such claims are based on misguided notions about the
4 fundamental drivers of the business cycle. Business cycles usually
end because of some exogenous shock that causes firms and
2 individuals to alter their planned expenditures and expectations of
0 future incomes. They do not die of old age.
-2 So far, lead indicators for the US economy still indicate decent
-4 growth prospects for the US economy. In particular, trend readings
US real GDP in the ISM Manufacturing and Non-manufacturing indices are still
-6
hovering well above their expansion thresholds.
Jan-50 Jan-60 Jan-70 Jan-80 Jan-90 Jan-00 Jan-10
Source: Datastream, Barclays

A messy end of the bond bull market?

18 (%) While a US slowdown is certainly one key risk to look out for, the
risks of an overheating economy should not be discounted either.
16
With labour markets continuing to tighten under historically loose
14 monetary policy, there is a risk for inflationary pressures to rise
12 10 year US treasury yield faster than policymakers anticipate.

10 In such a scenario, the Fed would likely drive up interest rates to

avoid falling further behind the curve, possibly causing the multi-
8 decade bond bull market to unwind chaotically.
6 For the moment, central bank ownership and historic precedent
4 suggest to us that the bond market will remain more or less orderly,
even with the return of more inflation. However, this is certainly a
2 risk worth keeping an eye on.
0
Jan-80 Jan-90 Jan-00 Jan-10
Source: Datastream, Barclays

China financial meltdown?

The extraordinarily rapid rise of debt in China, particularly in the
340 (%) trillions, CNY 30 corporate sector, has given rise to fears that the country may be
320 long overdue for a banking crisis.
25
300 Despite its vulnerabilities, Chinas financial system has several
20 features that reduce the risks of a Lehman-style crisis.
280
260 15 Chinas credit growth has been funded primarily by high domestic
savings, of which bank deposits are the vast majority.
240
10
Besides that, Chinese banks are mainly reliant on stable customer
220
deposits rather than interbank markets for short-term funding,
5
200 making the risk of a liquidity crunch lower.
180 0 Finally, the central government has substantial fiscal resources to
2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 address losses in its financial system and among troubled state-
Total banking assets (rhs) owned debtors.
Total banking assets as % of GDP (lhs)
Source: Datastream, Barclays

5 | In Focus | 9 June 2017


Our favoured developed
equity regions remain the
US and Europe ex-UK
The backdrop for
Emerging Market
corporate profitability has
turned more positive...
6 | In Focus | 16 June 2017
Asset class summary
We maintain a Strategic Asset Allocation for five risk profiles, based on our outlook for
each asset class. Our Tactical Allocation Committee (TAC), made up of our senior
investment strategists and portfolio managers, regularly assesses the need for tactical
adjustments to those allocations, based on our shorter-term (three to six month)
outlook. Here, we share our latest thinking on our key tactical tilts.
Developed Market Equities: Overweight (increased 23 March 2017)
The latest political controversy in Washington has further dimmed the likelihood of this
US administrations pro business agenda seeing the light of day. In the meantime,
leading indicators for the world economy continue to point to brighter times ahead,
independent of those policy proposals. These firming prospects for global growth and
inflation are what matter for trends in corporate earnings and therefore prospective
equity market returns. With stock market valuations much less remarkable than the
caricature, prospective returns are likely dominated by those aforementioned global
growth prospects rather than valuation multiple expansion. The current yield available
from developed world stocks (dividends plus net buybacks), allied to a conservative
assessment of prospective dividend growth suggests mid to high single digit
annualised returns are still well within reach from current levels.
We remain overweight US stocks, thanks to a domestic economy that is furthest along
the recovery path and a dominant share of a technology sector enjoying both cyclical
and structural growth tailwinds. We do not see the proposed tax cuts having a material
effect on trend economic growth and so would advise viewing their effects as similar to
that inflicted by the oil price plunge of 2014/15 a temporary phenomenon that has
scant impact on already healthy trends.
The gradual reduction in domestic economic slack should lead to better pricing and
higher profit margins for continental European corporations, a key reason for our
continued overweight on the region.
Emerging Market Equities: Overweight (increased 23 November 2016)
We moved our recommended tactical position in Emerging Market Equities up to
Overweight from Neutral in November 2016. The emerging market business cycle is
firming, as evidenced by business confidence surveys and trade data. The recent
performance of Korean exports a timely lead indicator for the direction of regional
exports suggest that global trade volumes have further room to pick up, a positive
sign for the broader Emerging Market universe. The prospects for US consumption also
look healthy, with both wages and consumer confidence now more visibly picking up.
This suggests to us that the fundamental macroeconomic backdrop has turned more
positive for emerging market corporate profitability.
Within Emerging Market Equities, Asia remains our preferred region, with Korea, Taiwan
and China (offshore) our highest conviction country bets on a strategic basis. With the
regions earnings sensitive to the trade cycle, what President Trump decides to
implement in regards to trade policy is important. Here, we suspect that economic
self-interest will ultimately triumph over some of the presidents more populist trade
threats.
Cash & Short-Maturity Bonds: Underweight (decreased 23 November 2016)
While cash continues to play a pivotal portfolio insulation role, the rising appeal from
Emerging Market Equities has led the Tactical Allocation Committee to deploy our cash
holdings into the former, bringing our position in Cash & Short-Maturity Bonds from
neutral to underweight.

Some returning inflation is
central to our current
tactical posture
Investors are likely best
served by tilting their
exposure towards oil and
away from Gold where
possible
7 | In Focus | 9 June 2017
Developed Government Bonds: Underweight (decreased 13 October 2016)
Nominal yields offered by large chunks of the government bond universe are still
negligible. Investors will likely have to work hard to make real returns from these levels
over the next several years. Our view remains that such valuations underestimate the
underlying inflationary pressures within the US economy in particular, something that
incoming labour market data pay some testament to. For us, the level of (returns
insensitive) central bank ownership probably suggests that the bond market will
remain more or less orderly and may lag a pick-up in inflation. Nonetheless, our
continuing small strategic and tactical allocation to the area suggests that higher real
returns lie elsewhere.
Investment Grade Bonds: Underweight
The spread of investment grade credit over government bond yields has held more or
less firm. Nominal yields in high quality corporate credit remain low in absolute terms
and may make the job of those trying to make positive real returns difficult.
High Yield & Emerging Market Bonds: Overweight (decreased 23 March 2017)
High Yield spreads have compressed significantly relative to levels seen last year, and
we see further but limited upside for junk credit over coming quarters. As a result,
we recently took profit on our overweight position in High Yield Bonds, opting to use
those proceeds to close our underweight position in Developed Asia equities. Given our
more sanguine take on the various risks to global growth and inflation, yields on junk
credit and emerging market debt remain attractive on a risk-reward basis.
Commodities: Neutral (Increased 13 May 2016)
We closed our long-held underweight in the commodity complex last May. US
monetary normalisation will likely provide a headwind, but the stabilisation in Chinese
growth looks sufficient to offset this for the moment. Although the prospects for
greater US infrastructure spending have increased a little in the wake of the US
elections, we would still take some of the more grandiose claims with a pinch of salt,
especially given the inherent difficulties in getting major legislation passed through
todays hyper-partisan Congress.
Investors are likely best served by tilting their commodity exposure towards oil and
away from gold where possible, with the latter still particularly vulnerable to further US
interest rate rises. We see oil prices continuing to drift higher over the coming 12 18
months as OPEC supply cuts and demand growth see growing inventory draws.
Real Estate: Neutral
Recent volatility has served as a timely reminder of the importance of maintaining a
diversified portfolio with the ability to weather a number of market environments, and
we continue to encourage clients to ensure that they are fully allocated to Real Estate.
Alternative Trading Strategies: Underweight (decreased 13 May)
We shifted our previous tactical underweight in Commodities to Alternative Trading
Strategies (ATS). This is primarily a function of the difference in volatilities for the two
asset classes. There is less risk being underweight the lower volatility ATS in the current
market environment in our opinion. Alongside this, regulation and lower leverage leave
this diversifying asset class without much tactical appeal at the moment.
 The case for investing
Global real GDP
140 Real GDP (Index of logarithm, 1960=100) Growth is the norm, not the exception.
Most years, world output grows
because of the simple interaction of
130 new technology and the learning
curve.
The inference is that you have to find
120 good reasons for betting against that
trend and not with it, as has been the
Global prevailing wisdom in the aftermath of
the great financial crisis.
110

100
1970-'79 1980-'89 1990-'99 2000-'09
Source: Datastream, Barclays

Growth of global GDP and asset classes

The future is of course unknowable.
180 Index (USD, logarithm,1973=100)
However, in addition to being able to
suggest that it is more likely that the
160 Real GDP world will grow than not, we can also
Nominal GDP point to historic performance of the
major asset classes relative to cash
Equities
140 and both nominal and real GDP as an
Bonds
argument for both diversification and
Cash
120 being invested in the first place.
As our colleagues in Behavioural
Finance are regularly at pains to point
100
out, it is not so much about timing the
market but time in the market.
80

1970-'79 1980-'89 1990-'99 2000-'09

Source: Datastream, Barclays. List of indices used: Equities MSCI World (USD) until 2001, MSCI AC World (USD) from 2001 onwards; Bonds Merrill Lynch US Treasury 7-10 years until 1980, Datastream
10 year US treasuries from 1980 onwards; Cash Federal Reserve US treasury bill 3 month

Historical frequency of equity market gains/losses

Historically, equity market returns
100% Historical frequency of MSCI World gains/losses in USD since end of 1969/1971 have been positive a lot more than
(start of monthly/daily data respectively)
80% 50% of the time over the long term.
89%
78% Although equity markets are not the
60%
61% only source of investor returns, it is
53% 56% stocks that are going to provide the
40%
bulk of the long-term returns to
20% investment portfolios.
0% This ultimately means that an investor
-11%
-22% looking to grow assets above inflation
-20% will likely have to accept an
-39%
-47% -44% investment portfolio that will be
-40% Losses Gains
reasonably correlated to equity
-60% markets over time.
1 Day 1 Week 1 Month 1 Year 5 Years

Source: Datastream, Barclays

8 | In Focus | 9 June 2017

 The case for investing
Minimum/maximum real return of US assets
Those able to buy and hold for longer
US assets: annualised periods may have a different
20 year
maximum and minimum
perspective on the risks inherent in the
Cash real returns over various
major asset classes anyway.
periods (%)
Bonds
Deeper real annualised losses have
10 year
Equities come from bonds and cash when the
holding period is extended to 10 years
or more.
5 year The profile of real returns and losses is
significantly more attractive for stocks
over 10 and 20 year holding periods.
1 year

-50 -25 0 25 50
Source: Datastream, Barclays

Median equity returns around market peaks

Avoiding bear markets is an industry
Median S&P 500 total returns around market peaks (%, 1937-2007)
60 54 obsession. Understandably so the
work of Nobel laureate Daniel
50 45 Kahneman and his colleague Amos
40
Tversky tells us that losses loom larger
than gains for the average investor.
30
21 However, the fact that most bear
6 months 12 months 24 months
20 markets are preceded by a rush of
14
blood that tends to outweigh the
10 6 bloodletting that inevitably follows
should temper how carefully we listen
0
to the more persistent doomsayers.
-1 -2
-10 Being too early to call the end of the
-12 cycle tends to be more costly than
-20 -15
Before After Net
missing the bear market altogether

Source: FactSet, Barclays

9 | In Focus | 9 June 2017

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5HP. Barclays Bank PLC, Guernsey Branch is licensed by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission under the Banking Supervision
(Bailiwick of Guernsey) Law 1994, as amended, and the Protection of Investors (Bailiwick of Guernsey) Law 1987, as amended. Barclays
Bank PLC, Guernsey Branch has its principal place of business at Le Marchant House, St Peter Port, Guernsey, GY1 3BE. Ireland Barclays
Bank Ireland PLC is regulated by the Central Bank of Ireland. Registered in Ireland. Registered Number: 396330. Registered Office: Two Park
Place, Hatch Street, Dublin 2. Calls may be recorded for security and other purposes. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England and
authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority.
Registered No. 1026167. Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP. Isle of Man Barclays offers wealth and investment products
and services to its clients through Barclays Bank PLC and its subsidiary companies. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England and authorised
by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Registered
Number: 1026167. Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP. Barclays Bank PLC, Isle of Man Branch is licensed by the Isle of Man
Financial Services Authority. Barclays Bank PLC, Isle of Man Branch has its principal business address in the Isle of Man at Barclays House,
Victoria Street, Douglas, Isle of Man, IM99 1AJ. Italy Barclays offers wealth and investment management products and services to its
clients through Barclays Bank PLC and its subsidiary companies. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England and authorised by the Prudential

10 | In Focus | 9 June 2017

 Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Registered No.
1026167. Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP. Barclays Bank PLC Via della Moscova. 18 20121 Milan Italy, is a branch
of Barclays Bank PLC and is registered with the Register of Banks Milan n 4862. Company Register Milan n 80123490155 R.E.A. Milan
1040254 Fiscal Code n 80123490155 Registered VAT n 04826660153. Jersey Barclays offers wealth and investment products and
services to its clients through Barclays Bank PLC and its subsidiary companies. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England and authorised by
the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Registered
Number: 1026167. Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP. Barclays Bank PLC, Jersey Branch is regulated by the Jersey Financial
Services Commission. Barclays Bank PLC, Jersey Branch is regulated by the Guernsey Financial Services Commission under the Protection of
Investors (Bailiwick of Guernsey) Law 1987 as amended. Barclays Bank PLC. Jersey Branch has its principal business address in Jersey at 13
Library Place, St Helier, Jersey JE4 8NE, Channel Islands. Monaco Barclays Bank PLC Monaco is a branch of Barclays Bank PLC with its
offices in the Principality of Monaco at 31 Avenue de la Costa, MC 98000 Monaco Tel. +377 93 15 35 35. Registered with the Monaco
Chamber of Commerce and Industry under No 68 S 01191. Registered VAT No FR 40 00002674 9. Nigeria Barclays offers wealth and
investment management products and services to its clients through Barclays Bank PLC and its subsidiaries. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in
England and authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential
Regulation Authority. Registered No.1026167. Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP. Barclays Group Representative Office
(NIG) Ltd. Registered Company No: RC41757 and its mailing address is Barclays Group Representative Office (NIG) Ltd, Courier Department,
3rd Floor, 1 Churchill Place, London, E14 5HP. Portugal Barclays offers wealth and investment management products and services to its
clients through Barclays Bank PLC and its subsidiary companies. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England and authorised by the Prudential
Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Registered No.
1026167. Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP. Barclays Bank PLC activity in Portugal is supervised by Banco de Portugal
(BoP) and Comisso de Mercado de Valores Mobilirios (CMVM). Qatar Barclays offers wealth and investment management products and
services to its clients through Barclays Bank PLC and its subsidiary companies. Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England and is authorised by
the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Registered No.
1026167. Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP. Barclays Bank PLC in the Qatar Financial Centre (Registered No. 00018) is
authorised by the Qatar Financial Centre Regulatory Authority. Barclays Bank PLC QFC Branch may only undertake the regulated activities
that fall within the scope of its existing QFCRA authorisation. Principal place of business in Qatar: Qatar Financial Centre, Office 1002, 10th
Floor, QFC Tower, Diplomatic Area, West Bay, PO Box 15891, Doha, Qatar. This information has been distributed by Barclays Bank
PLC. Related financial products or services are only available to Business Customers as defined by the QFCRA. Switzerland Barclays Bank
(Suisse) SA is a Bank registered in Switzerland and regulated and supervised by FINMA. Registered No. CH-660.0.118.986-6. Registered
Office: Chemin de Grange-Canal 18-20, P.O. Box 3941, 1211 Geneva 3, Switzerland. Registered branch: Beethovenstrasse 19, P.O. Box, 8027
Zurich. Registered VAT No. CHE-106.002.386. Barclays Bank (Suisse) SA is a subsidiary of Barclays Bank PLC registered in England,
authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority.
It is registered under No. 1026167 and its registered office is 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP. United Arab Emirates (Dubai) Barclays
offers wealth and investment management products and services to its clients through Barclays Bank PLC and its subsidiary companies.
Barclays Bank PLC is registered in England and authorised by the Prudential Regulation Authority and regulated by the Financial Conduct
Authority and the Prudential Regulation Authority. Registered No. 1026167. Registered Office: 1 Churchill Place, London E14 5HP. Barclays
Bank PLC (DIFC Branch) (Registered No. 0060) is regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Barclays Bank PLC (DIFC Branch) may
only undertake the financial services activities that fall within the scope of its existing DFSA licence. Related financial products or services are
only available to Professional Clients as defined by the DFSA. Principal place of business in the DIFC: Dubai International Financial Centre, The
Gate Village Building No. 10, Level 6, PO Box 506674, Dubai, U.A.E.

11 | In Focus | 9 June 2017