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PAT 34.6 36.3 54.4 -36.4 50.9 -32.0 PAT declined 36% YoY due to exceptional income of |32 crore in Q2FY16.
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Change in estimates
FY17E FY18E FY19E
(| Crore) Old New % Change Old New % Change Introduced Comments
Revenue 2,652.0 2,254.2 -15.0 2,983.5 2,524.7 -15.4 2,802.5 We have revised our estimates downwards for FY17E & FY18E
EBITDA 319.7 225.6 -29.4 403.0 296.7 -26.4 340.7
EBITDA Margin (%) 12.1 10.0 -209 bps 13.5 11.8 -175 bps 12.2
PAT 195.4 143.0 -26.8 246.5 192.6 -21.9 220.2
EPS (|) 15.2 11.1 -26.8 19.2 15.0 -21.9 17.1
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
3,000 2,802
2,694
2,525
2,418
2,500 2,254
2,065
2,000 1,842
1,543
| crore
1,500 1,258
1,092
987
1,000
500
-
CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
400 20
350 16.2
15.5 15.5
341
300
335
13.3 15
334
250
285
11.2
239
200
(%)
9.2 10.0
150
270
10
168
297
100
129
226
91
50
- 5
CY08 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
Exhibit 3: PAT margin to expand FY18E onwards Exhibit 4: and return ratios to improve FY18E onwards
45
250 15 34
38 33 33 33
231
200 39
226
220
218
28
31 25
193
191
150
172
(| crore)
10 24
(%)
9.0 7.9
(%)
143
100 7.6 16 17 18
9.3 9.2 24 25
17 23 23
8.6 8.6 6.3 20 13 11
50 18 14 15
10
- 5 CY09 CY10 CY11 CY12 CY13 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
CY11 CY12 CY13 FY15 FY16 FY17E FY18E FY19E
RoE RoCE
PAT PAT Margin
Exhibit 5: Valuations
Sales Growth EPS Growth PE EV/EBITDA RoNW RoCE
(| cr) (%) (|) (%) (x) (x) (%) (%)
FY16 2418.5 -10.2 17.0 -5.5 24.3 18.4 18.5 16.5
FY17E 2254.2 -6.8 11.1 -34.5 37.1 21.5 11.4 12.9
FY18E 2524.7 12.0 15.0 34.6 27.6 16.3 14.1 16.8
FY19E 2802.5 11.0 17.1 14.3 24.1 14.2 14.9 18.1
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
500 50.0
(%)
400 40.0
300 30.0
200 20.0
100 10.0
0 0.0
Nov-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
Key events
Date Event
Jan-10 Bata achieved 10.6% revenue growth in CY09. Operating margin expanded 265 bps to 11.9% on the back of improving product mix
Sep-10 Topline continued to grow at 10-15% and the company continued to witness margin expansion
Jan-11 From the 10-12% topline growth, the company started to report revenue growth in excess of 20%
Sep-11 In Q3CY11, the company achieved a topline growth of 26.3% YoY. The operating margin too expanded from 12.8% (Q3CY10) to 14.5% (Q3CY11)
Dec-11 After a series of margin expansions over the last five to seven years, the operating margin remained flat at 15.5% for CY11
May-12 The company continued to post robust topline growth. The PAT growth was even faster considering margin expansion
Apr-13
The rate of topline growth came down to low double digits and as margins remained flattish, the pace of PAT growth started to decline. PAT grew 6.8% in Q1CY13
Jul-13 Bata announced plans to open 100 stores each year thereby increasing the scope for revenue growth
Jan-14 The company's growth rate slipped to higher single digits on the back of dampened consumer sentiment. Revenues grew ~9% in Q4CY13 and Q1CY14. Similarly,
PAT growth slipped to the 2.5-3.5% range
May-15 Announced Stock Split from FV |10 to |5
Aug-15 Ties up US Footwear Brand Caterpillar
Sep-15 Bata stock split from FV |10 to |5
Source: Company, ICICIdirect.com Research
Recent Activity
BUY SELL
Investor Name Value Shares Investor Name Value Shares
Life Insurance Corporation of India 11.8 1.6 Axis Asset Management Company Limited -5.6 -0.8
Franklin Templeton Asset Management (India) Pvt. Ltd. 3.2 0.4 ICICI Prudential Asset Management Co. Ltd. -2.8 -0.4
Fidelity International Asset Management Company (Korea) 3.1 0.4 FIL Investment Management (Singapore) Ltd. -3.0 -0.4
Pioneer Investment Management Ltd. 0.7 0.1 Baroda Pioneer Asset Management Company Limited -2.0 -0.3
Union KBC Asset Management Company Pvt. Ltd. 0.4 0.1 Excel Funds Management Inc. -1.5 -0.2
Source: Reuters, ICICIdirect.com Research
Strong Buy: >15%/20% for large caps/midcaps, respectively, with high conviction;
Buy: >10%/15% for large caps/midcaps, respectively;
Hold: Up to +/-10%;
Sell: -10% or more;
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