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PROJECTSUCCESSANDFAILURE:
WHATISSUCCESS,WHATISFAILURE,ANDHOWCANYOUIMPROVEYOUR
ODDSFORSUCCESS?
RobertFrese
SystemsAnalysis
Dr.VickiSauter
UMSt.Louis
December16,2003
Weknowwhyprojectsfail,weknowhowtopreventtheirfailuresowhydotheystill
fail?(2)ThisstatementcouldbeappliedtotherecentSpaceShuttledisaster,orthe2003
collapseofalargeportionoftheU.S.electricalgrid.Buttheauthorwastalkingabout
InformationTechnologyandInformationSystemprojectfailures,astheyexistedin1994.
InformationTechnologyandInformationSystemfailureshavebeenthetopicofmanyarticles,
conferences,symposiums,studies,andresearchinitiatives.TheliteratureoftheITandIS
communityisrifewitharticlesandcommentaryaboutprojectfailures.Butjusthowbadisthe
situation?Doalargepercentofprojectsreallyfailordoweonlyhearthebadnews?Whatis
failureandwhatissuccess?Andlastly,whatcanyoudotoimproveyoursuccessquotient?
Letsstartbylookingatprojectfailureratesandwhyprojectsfail.
Therearemanywriterswhotelluswhyprojectsfail.Forinstance,Field(12)tellsusthat
projectsfailtoooftenbecausetheprojectscopewasnotfullyappreciatedand/oruserneeds
notfullyunderstood.Hulme(13)tellsusthatMISprojectsandassociatedprocurementstake
placeinanenvironmentcharacterizedbythefollowing:Lackofmanagementcontinuityandan
incentivesystemthatencouragesoverlyoptimisticestimatesofthebenefitsthatcanbeattained
fromdoingtheproject.AndLeicht(5)tellsusthathighuserexpectationscanactuallybethe
causeofprojectfailure.Hoffman(15)tellsthatprojectsfailbecauseofpooralignmentbetween
ITdepartmentsandbusinessusers.AndinanotherarticleHoffman(9)tellsusthatproject
managerstoooftenactasprocesscopsandreportcompilersandloosesightofwhattheyre
supposedtobedoingtomakesureprojectsarerunningeffectively.Hodgson(23)
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style='msobidifontweight:normal'tellsusthatprojectsfailthatsthefactoflife.Toomany
failbecausetheaverageprojectislikeaniceberg9/10thsofitlayhiddenfromview.Allof
thesewritersarecorrect.Butnoneoftheseauthorsarereportingsystematicresearchofthe
mechanismsthatcauseprojectsuccessorfailure.Andnoneofthemprovideinsightintothe
rateofprojectfailures.
HowOftenDoProjectsFailandHowCanThisbeMeasured?
Ina2003articleJuliaKing(10)reports,Atcompaniesthatarentamongthetop25%of
technologyusers,threeoutof10ITprojectsfailonaverage.Translation:forthesecompanies
anamazing30%ofITprojectsfail.Nowifyouareanextremelyoptimisticpersonyoumight
concludethegoodnewsisthat70%oftheseprojectssucceed.ButnotethatKingdoesnottell
ushowmanyofthe70%ofthesuccessfulprojectswereoverbudget,overtime,ordefectivein
functionuponcompletion.Therearemanywaystomeasuresuccessandfailure,butthereisno
strictdividinglinebetweenthetwo.Baker(20)concludes,Likeeverythingelse,thedefinitionof
projectfailureisinastateofflux.AndOBrochta(18)tellsusthatthebigproblemwith
assessingprojectsuccessisthatitisnotprecise.OBrochtacontinues,Thisdynamiccan
oftenbetheAchilleshealforaproject.Withoutadependableunderstandingofwhatconstitutes
success,theprojectisplacedintheuntenablepositionofbeingjudgedagainstdifferingcriteria,
andinvariablybecomesonemorefailurestatisticreportedbyresearchfirmssuchasStandish,
Gartner,Forrester,andothers.
Andso,Lewis(7)tellsusthatOnaverage,about70%ofallITrelatedprojectsfailto
meettheirobjectives.InthiscaseLewisincludesnotonlyprojectsthatwereabandoned
(failed),butalsothosethatweredefectivelycompletedduetocostoverruns,timeoverruns,or
didnotprovideallofthefunctionalitythatwasoriginallypromised.Amazingly,Lewisdoesnot
considerthis70%failuretomeetobjectivesaseriousissue,andcomparesittothebatting
averageofamajorleagueplayer.Lewiscontendsmajorleaguecoachesarehappywitha30%
atbatsuccessrateforaplayer,andLewisthinksthesamestandardshouldapplytoIT
projects.ThereseemstobeonlyoneproblemwithLewisoutlook,andthatisthatthecustomer,
thebillpayer,maynotsharethissentiment.
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Thereareotherreportsofprojectfailurerates.A1997seminarpaper(3)statesthatIn
1992theUnitesStatesGeneralAccountingOffice(GAO)reviewedManagementInformation
Systems(MIS)projectsandconcluded:Developingandmodernizinggovernmentinformation
systemsisadifficultandcomplexprocess.Againandagain,projectshaverunintoserious
trouble,despitehardworkbydedicatedstaff.Theyaredevelopedlate,failtoworkasplanned,
andcostmillionsevenhundredsofmillionsmorethanexpected.Inthesamearticleweare
toldthatresearchbytheStandishGroupindicatesonly16.1percentofallMISprojectsare
completedontimeandwithinbudget.Translation:83.9percentofprojectsfaileithertosome
extentorfailcompletely.Sothisleadstoseveralquestions.Regardlessofmeasurement
semantics,whydoprojectsfail?Isthereonecauseoraretheremanycauses?Iftheoverall
failurerateisgoingtoremainhigh,thenhowcanyou,thereader,becometheexceptiontothis
ruleoffailureandachieveamuchhighersuccessrateforyourprojects?Yourcareermaywell
dependonit.
LetslookattheStandishGroupsCHAOSReport(1)andseewhatithastosay.Forthe
StandishGroupnotonlypublishedfailureandsuccessrates,butalsopointedtoindicatorsfor
successandfailure.Theiroriginalreportwasdonein1994andpublishedasTHECHAOS
Report.TheStandishGroupstudied365companieswithatotalof8,380InformationSystem
applicationsunderdevelopment.Theresultantreportdividesprojectsintothreedistinct
outcomeswhichtheycalledResolutions.
ResolutionType1isaProjectSuccessitcompletedontimeandbudget,withallfeatures
andfunctionsasspecified.Only16.2%ofprojectsfellinthiscategory.
ResolutionType2isProjectChallenged.Thesewerecompleted,butwereovercost,over
time,and/orlackingallofthefeaturesandfunctionsthatwereoriginallyspecified.52.7%ofall
studiedprojectsfellintothisResolutionType2(Challenged)category.
ResolutionType3istermedProjectImpaired/Failed.Theseprojectswereabandonedor
cancelledatsomepointandthusbecametotallosses.Adisturbing31.1%ofallstudiedprojects
fellintothiscategory.
ForthepurposesofthispaperwewillusetheabovethreeStandishGroupmeasuresof
projectoutcome:Asuccessfulprojectmustbeontime,onbudget,anddeliverquality(features
andfunctions)aspromised.Anythinglesswillbeeitherafailedprojectorachallengedproject.
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ThedisturbingconclusionfromthisStandishreportisthatonly16.2%ofprojectswere
successfulbyallmeasures,andthatofthe70%ofprojectsthatwerenotsuccessful,Over52
percentwerepartialfailuresand31%werecompletefailures.Thisshouldcertainlygiveproject
managersbothfoodforthoughtandmotivationtoaction.
Sonowthatwehaveinformationaboutprojectsuccessandfailurerates,arethereany
significantdifferentiatorsfoundbetweensuccessfulandfailedprojects?Accordingtothe1994
StandishCHAOSReport,thereare.
Thetop5factorsfoundinsuccessfulprojectsare:
1.UserInvolvement
2.ExecutiveManagementSupport
3.ClearStatementofRequirements
4.ProperPlanning
5.RealisticExpectations
Thesearethetop5of10listedinthereport.Thereportconcludesthatthesewerethe
elementsthatweremostoftenpointedtoasmajorcontributorstoprojectsuccess.Willthese
elementsaloneguaranteesuccess?Never.Butifthesearedonewell,aproject,accordingto
theStandishGroup,willhaveamuchhigherprobabilityofsuccess.
ThenextcategoryofdifferentiatorsfromtheStandishreportdealswithprojectsthat
provedtobeChallengedthatistheywerecompletedbuywereoverbudget,overtime,ordid
notcontainallfunctionsandfeaturesoriginallyrequired.
Thetop5indicatorsfoundinChallengedprojectsare:
1.LackofUserInput
2.IncompleteRequirements&Specifications
3.ChangingRequirements&Specifications
4.LackofExecutiveSupport
5.TechnicalIncompetence
AndfinallyalistofallthetopfactorsfoundinFailedprojects
1.IncompleteRequirements
2.Lackofuserinvolvement
3.LackofResources
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4.UnrealisticExpectations
5.LaceofExecutiveSupport
6.ChangingRequirements&Specifications
7.LackofPlanning
8.DidntNeeditAnyLonger
9.LackofITmanagement
10.TechnicalIlliteracy
Noticeintheabovethreeprojectoutcomes,userinvolvementislistedasthefirstor
seconditemineach.
ANOTHERPERSPECTIVETOSUCCESSANDFAILURE:
Theresultsofaresearchpaper(6),presentedata1991PMIsymposium,foundthat
thereareareasthatshouldbeemphasizedbyprojectmanagerswhoarecommittedtothe
successoftheirprojects.TheresearchmethodusedContentAnalysisofshowcasearticles
featuredinpmNETworkandProjectManagementJournal.Theresearchersstudied24areasof
projectmanagementandfoundthat3ofthe24,ifdonewell,clearlyindicatedthataprojecthad
ahighprobabilityofsuccess.Thepaperstatesitmaybeinferredthatthesethreevariables
(GoodPlanning,ClearResponsibilityandAccountability,andScheduleControl)inparticular
havethegreatestimpactontheperformanceoftheproject.Donot,however,concludethatall
oftheotherareaswerethennotimportanttoprojectsuccess.Thepaperalsotellsusthedata
suggeststhatmanydifferentvariablesareneededtoaccomplishasuccessfulproject.Letslook
atthethreekeyareasthat,ifdonewell,pointtoasuccessfulprojectcompletion.
GoodPlanning
Thefirstindicator,GoodPlanning,requiresexcellentforwardplanning,whichincludes
detailedplanningoftheprocessimplementationstages,tasktimeliness,fallbackpositions,and
replanning.Noticethatinitialplanningisnotenough.Projectsoftentakewrongturns,orinitial
solutionsproveunfounded.Theprojectmanagerwhodoesnotpreparetoreplan,orhasnot
consideredandplannedfallbackpositionswheninitialplansfail,willoftenfindthattheproject
firststalls,andthenfails.Wemustrememberthatprojectmanagementisnotastraightline
process,butaniterativeprocessthatrequiresagilerethinkingastheknownenvironment
changesbeforeyoureyes.
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ClearResponsibilityandAccountabilityofTeamMembers
Thisrequiresthatallteammembershaveaclearunderstandingoftheirrolesandduties
intheproject.Theymustunderstandhowexpectationsvs.achievementswillbemeasuredand
graded.Itislefttotheprojectmanagertoproperlyimplementthecommunicationofthese
responsibilities,toprovidefeedback,andtoassureallunderstandthatforwhichtheywillbeheld
accountable.
ScheduleControl
Thisrequiresthecontinualmonitoringandmeasurementoftime,milestones,people,and
equipmentschedules.Properlydoneschedulecontrolwillalsogivethefirsthintthatinitial
planningmaynotbegoingaccordingtoschedule.Ifyoupickuponthesehints,youhavean
opportunitytoimplementafallbackpositionand/orreplantogetbackontrack.
Thesamepaperfindstwoattributesthatappearedequallyforprojectsthatsucceededor
failed.Thesetwowere:UseofConsultants,andWellQualifiedPersonnel.Equalnumbersof
successfulandfailedprojectsusedconsultants,andthesamewastrueforwellqualified
personnel.Itisperhapsdisappointingthatthesetwoattributesdidnotportendprojectsuccess.
Obviouslytherearemanyothervariablesthatholdgreatweightindeterminingtheultimate
outcomeofanITproject.
Lastlythissamestudylistedfourthingsthatforeshadowedafailedproject.Therewere:
LackofEfficientInternalCommunicationLinks,LackofEfficientExternalCommunicationLinks,
LackofResponsiveDecisionMaking,andLackofEffectiveTeamwork.Theseappearedmost
frequentlyinanegativecontextinfailedprojects.
Soatthispointwehaveseverallistsofthingsthatmightindicateprojectsuccessand
othersthatmightindicateprojectfailure.Butthereisonethingprimarilythatyoumust
recognizeinalloftheselists.Therearenostockanswers,andthereisnoonelistthatwill
guaranteesuccess.ITandISprojectsarecomplexbynature,andeachisunique.Itisvery
difficulttoplanwithcompletecertaintysomethingthathasneverbeforebeendone.Every
singlefactorinalloftheselistsisimportantandmustbeconsideredforeachproject.Themost
difficultpartmaybeprioritizingthefactors.Whicharemostimportant?Whichmustbedone
first?Hopefullythelistswillhelpyouanswerthesequestions.Butineachcaseyoumust
ultimatelymakethedecisionsbasedupontheuniquecircumstancesofyourimmediateproject.
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COMMUNICATION
B.Elenbaas(17)tellsusthatprojectsareaboutcommunication,communication,
communication.In1973Iwasspeakingwithagentlemanwhohadrecentlyretiredfrom
MonsantoChemicalCompany.HiscareerwithMonsantobeganbackin1933.Aswespoke,
thesubjectofcommunicationenteredourconversationandthisfinegentlemanrelatedthe
followingstory:In1933whenIwasbrandnewtoMonsanto,mybosstoldmethatthebiggest
problematMonsantowas(thelackof)communication.And40yearslaterwhenIretired,the
biggestproblematMonsantowasstillthelackofcommunication.Thisgentlemanemphasized
thefactthatalackofcommunicationisverycostlytoacompany.Sure,acompanymaystill
succeed,butwithoutgoodinternalandexternalcommunicationIsubmitthatthecostofsuccess
willbemuchhigherthannecessary.Anotherconsequenceisthatsuccessoftentakesmuch
longerthannecessarytoachieve.Sometimessuccessneverarrives.
Lackofgoodcommunicationcaneasilyturnsacorporatestrategy,oranISproject,intoa
moderndayTowelofBabel.Lavine(8)tellsusthatThewarringfactionsinAfricahaveabetter
chanceofcommunicatingwitheachotherthanmanyoftheuserandtechnologygroupsthat
worktogetherintodaysprojectdevelopmentenvironment.Lavinealsorelatesthatsome
yearsagohewashiredasadeveloperforalargebondprocessingbank.Hewastoldonhis
thirddaythatthedevelopmentteamwasnolongerallowedtospeaktoanyonefromthe
businesscommunity.Itseemsthatrelationsbetweenthetwogroupshadbecomesobadthat
communicationhadcometoacompletehalt.Infact,negotiationshadbeguninanattemptto
findanacceptableliaisontoworkbetweenthetwogroups.Thismayseemlikeanextreme
example,butthishappensinprojects.Sometimesitifovert,butalltoooftenitisonasubtle
level.Subtledysfunctionisprobablyhardertocorrectbecauseitismoredifficulttopinpoint.
Youknowsomethingiswrong,butitsdifficulttotellexactlywhatitisortopinpointtheroot
causeoftheproblem.Thisoftenmakestheproblemintractable.
Kirksey(3)tellsusthatonepredictorofprojectsuccessiswhencommunicationsarekept
honestandopenbetweencustomerandvendor.Hismajorindicatorofprojectfailureinthis
areaiswhenanISprojectmanagerfailstocorrectlyreadwarningsignsthatcommunicationis
breakingdown.Theresultisamissedopportunitytocorrectthesituationbeforeitbecomestoo
late.
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Wixom(4)arguesthatUserParticipationandTeamSkillsaretwoofsevenimperative
implementationfactorsthatdetermineprojectsuccessorfailure,andthatthesetwoare
essentiallycommunicationskills.UserParticipationoccurswhenusersareassignedproject
rolesandtasks,whichleadtoabettercommunicationoftheirneeds,andhelpensurethatthe
systemisimplementedsuccessfully.ThisiswhatWixom(4)hastosayaboutTeamSkills:
Peopleareimportantwhenimplementingasystemandcandirectlyaffectitssuccessorfailure.
Teamskillsincludebothtechnicalandinterpersonalabilities.Theseinterpersonalabilities
include,withoutexception,interpersonalcommunicationskills.Whodoyouknowthat
communicateseffectively?Watchthemanddeterminewhytheircommunicationiseffective.
Alsowatchthosewhodopoorlyatcommunicating,andmakeeveryefforttoavoidtheirbad
habits.Thereisonelastpointthatinvolvescommunicationandhowitmustbeusedtoputuser
expectationsintoperspective.Hayes(11)providesadditionalinsightbynoting,executives
expectsaleseffortsandproductdevelopmenteffortstofail,butnotITprojects.Healsotellsus
thatwemustconvincemanagersthatsystemdevelopmenttodayisagamble,butonethemay
haveabigpayoff.Hayestellsusthatwemustmarketoureffortsandmanageuser
expectations.Iftheuserunderstandsthatthereisrisk,thenyoullhaveabetterchanceof
deliveringwhattheusersexpect.Andifyouwantpsychologicalinsigitsintopeopleand
projects,reviewWastell's(16)insightintolearningdysfunctionanditsassociationwithproject
successorfailure.
AVOIDATALLCOST
Hereareafewthingsthatshouldneverhappentoyoubutprobablywillatonepointoranother.
IfyoueverhearyourselftellaclientNo,yourewrong,thatwasneverpartofthescope!Its
clearlyascopeexpansion!(21),thenyouhaveviolatedoneofthecardinalrulesabout
controllingscopeexpansion.Ifyoufindyourselftalkingmorethanlistening,thenstop
talking(22)becausetheoutcomeofhavingyourviewprevailmaynotultimatelybewise.Two
orthreeheadsareoftenbetterthanone,solistentotheothersyoumightlearnsomething.If
aprojectmanagerwantstofail,operateinavacuum(24).Operatinginavacuum,intentionally
ornot,isasurewaytomakesurecommunicationdiesonyourproject.Andlastlythereisthis
favoritequote,TheLoneRangerhadTonto,YogiBearhadBooBoo,sowhydosomePMsrun
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withoutadequatehelp?(25)Thinkaboutthisnexttimeyoudontwanttosharetheload,
perhapsbecausenoonecandoitbetterthanyou.
JIANGSLIST
OneconciseliteraturestudybyJiang,etal(19)producedalistof13successfactors.
JiangsconclusionattheendofthisstudywasthattheliteraturesuggeststhatISusersandIS
professionalsareremarkablyidenticalintheirimportancerankingsofsuccessfactors.The
similarityextendstocomparisonsacrossexperiencelevelandgender.Thesimilarityacross
thesedemographicconsiderationsallowsaconfidenceintherankingsobtained.These
rankingscanthusbeusedasguidanceinestablishingpoliciesandprocedures.Hereisthelist
thatIwillcallJiangs13.
1.Clearlydefinedgoals(includingthegeneralprojectphilosophyorgeneralmissionofthe
project,aswellascommitmenttothosegoalsonthepartoftheteammembers).
2.Competentprojectmanager.Theimportanceofinitialselectionofskilled
(interpersonally,technically,andadministratively)projectleader.
3.TopManagementSupport.Topordivisionalmanagementsupportfortheprojectthat
hasbeenconveyedtoallconcernedparties.
4.Competentprojectteammembers.Theimportanceofselectingand,ifnecessary,
triagingprojectteammembers.
5.Sufficientresourceallocation.TheseareResourcesintheformofmoney,personnel,
logistics,etc.
6.Adequatecommunicationchannels.Sufficientinformationisavailableontheproject
objectives,status,changes,organizationalcoordination,clientsneeds,etc.
7.ControlMechanisms.(Includingplanning,schedules,etc.).Programsareinplaceto
dealwithinitialplansandschedules.
8.Feedbackcapabilities.Allpartiesconcernedwiththeprojectareaabletoreviewproject
status,makesuggestions,andcorrectionsthroughformalfeedbackchannelsorreview
meetings.
9.Responsivenesstoclient.Allpotentialusersoftheprojectareconsultedwithandkept
uptodateonprojectstatus.Further,clientsreceiveassistanceaftertheprojecthasbeen
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successfullyimplemented.
10.Clientconsultation.Theprojectteammemberssharesolicitedinputfromallpotential
clientsoftheproject.Theprojectteammembersunderstandtheneedsofthosewhowill
usethesystems.
11.Technicaltasks.Thetechnologythatisbeingimplementedworkswell.Experts,
consultants,orotherexperiencedprojectmanagersoutsidetheprojectteamhave
reviewedandcritiquedthebasicapproach.
12.ClientAcceptance.Potentialclientshavebeencontactedabouttheusefulnessofthe
project.Adequateadvancedpreparationhasbeendonetobestdeterminehowtosellthe
projecttotheclients.
13.Troubleshooting.Projectteammembersspendapartofeachdaylookingforproblems
thathavesurfacedorareabouttosurface.Projectteammembersareencouragedto
takequickactiononproblemsontheirowninitiative.
TheFutureisGettingBrighterEveryDay
Whatdoesthefuturehold?AccordingtoJohnson(14)thesuccessrateforprojectshas
actuallyincreasedsincetheoriginalStandishCHAOSreport.Johnsonattributesthisincreased
successratetomoreprojectpeopleusingtheStandishRecipeforSuccessthatwas
establishedin1998.Johnsontellsusthattheoverallprojectsuccessratehasincreasedfrom
16%in1994to28%in2000.Whatthenarethetop5factorsthathavecausedthissignificant
increase?AccordingtoJohnsonsreportthetop5are:
1)ExecutiveSupport:ThisisnowtheNo.1factorinprojectfailure.Lackofexecutivesupport
cananddoesjeopardizeprojects.PositiveExecutivesupportpositivelyinfluencesproject
outcome.
2)UserInvolvement:LackofuserinvolvementtraditionallyhasbeentheNo.1reasonfor
projectfailures.AlthoughitisnowNo.2,itsimportancehasnotdecreased.Johnsonfeelsthat
projectprofessionalsbetterhandleandsolvethismajorproblem.
3)ExperiencedProjectManager:Johnsonreportsthatninetysevenpercentofsuccessful
projectshaveanexperiencedprojectmanageratthehelm.
4)ClearBusinessObjectives:Bettercontrolofobjectivesisattributedtoexperiencedproject
managers.
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5)MinimizedScope:Donotallowyourscopetogrow.Johnsonclaimsthatminimizedscope
hasreplacedsmallmilestones.
Conclusion
Therearemanythingsthatleadtoprojectsuccessandmanythatleadtofailure.Jiangslistof13
isagoodlisttouseasastartingpointforyourprojects.Butlikeanyofthelists,itisnotenoughin
andofitself.Goodprojectmanagementisaprocessofcontinuousimprovement.Itisaprocessof
makingmistakesandlearningfromthosemistakes.Itisaprocessofcontinuousstudyand
learning.Forthosewhocannotdevotethemselvestothisneverendingprocess,therewillbefew
successes.
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