REPORT

STUDY CASE II
THE AKON ZOOLOGICAL PARK

Students
Nicole Torres Tenorio
Sebastin Dinamarca Lpez
Teacher
Mg. Paola Leal Mora

Industrial Civil Engineering

Industrial Processes School
Catholic University of Temuco
______________________________________________
DISCUSSION AND QUESTIONS

In the next case study, we intend to forecast the demand (assistance) of people from "The
Akron Zoological Park" (in the years 1999 and 2000) applying Trends Projection
techniques, these people are grouped by category for it first it was taken as data/variables
the total number of people (actual demand) and the years they attended.

TOTAL PEOPLE y = 9197,3x - 2E+07

160000

140000

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000
The analysis yielded the following results:

Subsequently with the equation Y = 9197,309091X-18239898,07 the projection was

realized for the years that it was requested:

Then, the "admission fee" was forecast using trend line, the procedure consisted in calculating the
years with the admission quotas of each group of peopl e with their respective prices.
The percentage of assistance that was used to calculate the demand for users of the total in each
year was 35% for adults, 50% for children and 15% groups which also helped to calculate the total
prices.
Once these values were obtained, the total income could be calculated for each year.

YEAR TOTAL $ PER

YEAR
1989 52019
1990 59882
1991 62257
1992 61458
1993 121768
1994 237428
1995 192344
1996 288591
1997 275799
1998 338888
1999 404069
2000 462496

1. Would simple linear regresion analysis by the appropriate

forecasting technique?

To answer this question, we compared the prediction of simple linear regression

with the polynomial forecast whose equation was obtained graphically by the
trend line, as can be seen in the figure, it can be concluded that the simple linear
regression technique Was adequate because it presents a lower error rate than the
polynomial projection.
 TOTAL PEOPLE (POLINOMICA) y = -837,27x2 + 18407x + 25932
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12

TOTAL PEOPLE Polinmica (TOTAL PEOPLE)

 2. Beside admision Price, what other factors that influence anual
attendance should be considered in the forecast?
Other factors that could be considered in the forecast because they influence the annual
attendance would be: Climatic factors such as temperature and rainfall, because the zoo
when it opens in December, being a winter season, the temperature decreases, for which
is statistically verified that the attendance declines, added to that being an open place, the
rains also affect the attendance. Another important factor is the publicity, since in spite of
not being with an advertising budget, they obtain publicity thanks to the announcements
and local press, which has helped that the attendance of public grows.