31

CHAPTER 4

METHODOLOGY

4.1 ANALYTICAL METHOD

In the past years, empirical or analytical methods are used for

calculating the sediment deposition in the reservoir. One of the best methods
available in the literature which is proposed by Garde et al (1978) is used in
this study to estimate the sediment deposition in the Vaigai reservoir.

This method is based on the sedimentation studies on nine

reservoirs listed below.

1. Bhakra (Punjab),

2. Panchet hill (Bihar),

3. Matatila (Uttar Pradesh),

4. Hirakud (Orissa),

5. Maithon (Bihar),

6. Mayurkashi (West Bengal),

7. Nizamsagar (Andhra Pradesh).

8. Wuchieh (Taiwan) and

9. Guernsey (USA).
 32

This method is more practical (Garde et al 1987) and it is extremely

useful technique since it represents a procedure relying on the integration of
complex erosion, sediment transport and deposition process in reservoirs.
This method makes use of the following data which are normally available for
any reservoir.

1. Annual inflows in to the reservoir.

2. Annual rainfall.

3. Initial capacity of reservoir.

4. Average initial bed slope.

5. Width of reservoir at FRL and other hydraulic details of

reservoir.

Using the above details the inflow in to the Vaigai reservoir and
sediment deposition due this inflow is calculated as below.

4.1.1 Inflow Generation

The available annual inflow (1959-1999) are used to generate the

flows for subsequent years using Brittans method by means of Markov-chain
Model. (Ven Te Chow, 1964).

I( t 1) RI t (1 R ) I (1 R 2 )1 / 2 * Z (4.1)

Where,

I( t 1) = Generated water inflow in (t+1)th year

It = Annual water inflow in tth year

_
I = Mean annual inflow of historic data
 33

R = First order serial correlation co-efficient of historic

inflow data.

= Standard deviation of historic inflow data

Z = Random normal deviate having zero mean and unit

standard deviation

When the flow is assumed to be normally distributed (Jayarami

Reddy 1987) it is possible that negative flows may be generated during some
periods. In such cases it is recommended that the negative flow be used in the
generation of subsequent flow and later all negative flows may be made equal
to zero.

To eliminate the seed of generation the sequence for a longer period

than required and initial segment which is in excess is dropped from further
usage. For example if the required length of the generated sequence is say 150
years, we generate the flow for about 200 years and drop the first 50 years of
generated record. This is known as Warming up.

First order serial correlation co-efficient (R), standard deviation ( )

and random normal deviate are calculated for inflow generation.

(a) First order serial co-efficient R is given by

N 1 1 N 1 N 1
i 1 Xi * Xi 1 ( i 1 X i )( i 1 Xi 1 )
R N 1
N 1 2 1 N 1 2 1/ 2 N 1 2 1 N 1 2 1/ 2
( i 1 Xi ( i 1 Xi ) ) *( i 1 Xi 1 ( i 1 Xi 1) )
N 1 N 1

(4.2)
 34

where,

Xi = Historic annual inflow in ith year

Xi 1 = Historic annual inflow in (i 1) th year

N = Number of years

(b) Standard deviation of historic inflow data ( )

1/ 2
2 2 1/ 2 2 1/ 2
Xi Xi X i 12 Xi 1
* (4.3)
N 1 N 1 N 1 N 1

(c) Random normal deviate (Z) is found out by the Box Muller
method using rectangular distributed random numbers using
the equations.

Z1 [ 2 ln(1 U1 )]1 / 2 Cos(2 U 2 ) (4.4)

Z2 [ 2 ln(1 U1 )]1/ 2 Sin (2 U 2 ) (4.5)

where, U1 and U2 are the uniformly distributed random numbers in the

range (0,1).

U1 and U2 are given in the Table A 2.1 and normal random deviate
(Z) also furnished in Table A 2.2

4.1.2 Volume of Sediment Deposited

The cumulative volume of sediment deposited is calculated from the

cumulative volume of water inflow into the reservoir which is used for the
generation of future rate of sedimentation. (Garde et al 1987)
 35

VS Vac * B / 106 (4.6)

Vac 1.16* (SO ) 0.84 * (Vw ) 0.94 (4.7)

Vw Ic / B (4.8)

Where,

VS = Volume of sediment in Mm3

Vac = Cumulative volume of sediment in m3/m width of reservoir

in t years (Coefficients used in equation (4.7) are derived
from Vaigai reservoir data)

Vw = Cumulative volume of water inflow in m3/m width in t years

SO = Average initial longitudinal bed slope along the deepest

course of reservoir (1 in 450)

Ic = Cumulative annual volume of water inflow in Mm3

B = Average width of reservoir at F.R.L in m (1946.43 m)

Using Equation (4.1), the inflow into the reservoir for future years
was generated. Flow was generated from 2000 to 2150, say 150 years, which
is given in the Table 5.2 of Chapter 5

The volume of sediment deposit in the Vaigai reservoir for these

future years also calculated using the equation (4.6) and the same is given in
the Table 5.3 of Chapter 5.

Volume of sediment deposition was calculated upto the year 2108,

because at this year Vaigai reservoir will lose 70% capacity.

It is to be noted that any reservoir will lose its intended purpose

once 70% capacity has been lost (Santosh Kumar Garg 2009).
 36

4.2 ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS

4.2.1 Overview

This subsection provides a brief introduction to artificial neural

network models. Traditional computing techniques take advantage of the
computers architecture to solve problems well understood but not easily
solved by human calculation. On the other hand, some tasks, such as pattern
recognition and motor control which are not well understood, are easily
handled by the brain and nervous system yet elude traditional computer
procedures. Artificial neural networks attempt to model these poorly
understood problems by employing a mathematical model of the brains
structure (Fausett,1994).

The brain consists of billions of densely interconnected neurons.

The premise behind artificial neural network models is that mimicking the
brains structure of many highly connected processing elements will enable
computers to tackle tasks they have not as of yet performed well. Artificial
neural networks are mathematical models derived from this structure. Though
biological plausibility is sometimes applied to artificial neural network
models, they are not intended to model the actual workings inside the brain or
nervous system. It has been now established that the high performance of the
human brain in the natural information processing tasks, such as perception,
language understanding, motor control, etc., is due to massively parallel
processing basic unit of brain called NEURON. The function of the brain is
due to a very complicated biochemical reaction which is yet to be analysed
satisfactorily.

4.2.2 Neuron Model

A model of a neuron has three basic parts: input weights, a summer,

and an output function. The input weights scale values used as inputs to the
 37

neuron, the summer adds all the scaled values together and the output
function produces the final output of the neuron. Often, one additional input,
known as the bias is added to the system. If a bias is used, it can be
represented by a weight with a constant input of 1. This description is laid out
visually in Figure 4.1.

I1
W1

I2 W2 x f(x) a

W3
I3
B

Figure 4.1 General Neuron Model

where, I1, I2, and I3 are the inputs, W1, W2, and W3 are the weights,

B is the bias,

x is an intermediate output and

a is final output.

The equation for a is given by

a f (W1I1 W2 I 2 W3I3 B) (4.9)

where, f could be any function, most often, f is the sign of the argument (i.e.
1 if the argument is positive and -1 if the argument is negative), linear (i.e. the
output is simply the input times some constant factor), or some complex curve
used in function matching.
 38

When artificial neurons are implemented, vectors are commonly

used to represent the inputs and the weights so the first of two brief reviews
x (x1 , x 2 , , x n ) of linear algebra is appropriate here. The dot product of
two vectors and y (y1 , y 2 , , y n ) is given by x * y x1y1 x 2 y 2 x n yn .

Using this notation the output is simplified to a f (W * I B)

where all the inputs are contained in I and all the weights are contained in W.

4.2.3 Neuron Layer

In a neuron layer, each input is tied to every neuron and each

neuron produces its own output. This can be represented mathematically by
the following series of equations:

a1 f1 (W1 * I B1 ) (4.10)

a2 f 2 (W2 * I B2 ) (4.11)

a3 f 3 (W3 * I B3 ) (4.12)

Keeping matrix multiplication in mind, append the weights so that

each row of a matrix represents the weights of 1 neuron. Now, representing
the input vector and the biases as one column matrices and simplified the
above equations as

a f (W * I B) (4.13)

which is the final form of the mathematical representation of one

layer of artificial neurons.
 39

4.2.4 Neural Network Model

In general, a neural network model consists of neurons or

processing elements, each of which is connected to other elements according
to some schema by connection weights. The connection weights between
processing elements contain the knowledge stored in the artificial neural
network model. Usually, the processing elements are classified as input units,
output units, or hidden units. The basic structure of an ANN usually consists
of three layers: (1) the input layer, where the data are introduced to the
network; (2) the hidden layer(s), where data are processed; and (3) the output
layer, where the results of given input are produced. This type of network,
where data flow is in one direction, is known as a feed-forward
network.(Mirchandani and Cao,1989)

The weight between neurons is optimized by using known inputs

and outputs, and presenting these to the ANN in some ordered manner. This
process is called training of the network. Model input is supplied through the
input units and model output is shown on the output units. The hidden
elements are necessary to enable the system to learn relationships which are
not linearly separable. Figure 4.2 illustrates a typical neural network model.
The model learns by adjusting its connection weights in response to the input-
output pairs presented to it during training. Neural networks are trained by
example, they are not usually programmed with a prior knowledge. During
training, the strength of these interconnections is adjusted using an error
convergence technique so that a desired output is produced for a known
pattern.
 40

Input Layer Hidden Layer Output Layer

Figure 4.2 Neural Network Model Example

The learning process or training forms the interconnection between

neurons. The strength of these interconnections is adjusted using an error
convergence technique so that a desired output will be produced for a known
input pattern. Many training procedures are discussed in the literature. Error
back propagation is one of the most commonly used procedures. The
processing units are arranged in layers. The method is generally an iterative
nonlinear optimisation approach using a gradient descent search method.
Fernando and Jayawardena (1998) have used radial basis function networks
for training. They concluded that ANNs trained either using radial basis
function or error back propagation provided comparable estimations. Error
back propagation provides a feed forward neural network, giving the capacity
to capture and represent relationships between patterns in a given data sample
(Eberhart and Dobbins, 1990).

4.2.5 Back Propagation Training

Error back propagation involves two phases: a feed forward phase,

in which the external input information at the input nodes is propagated
 41

forward to compute the output information signal at the output unit, and a
backward phase, in which modifications to the connection strengths are made
based on the differences between the computed and observed information
signals at the output units (Eberhart and Dobbins 1990).

At the beginning of a training process, the connection strengths are

assigned random values. The learning algorithm modifies the strength in each
iteration until the successful completion of the training (Nagy et al2002).
When the iterative process has converged, the collection of connection
strengths captures and stores the knowledge and the information present in the
examples used in the training process.

When presented with a new input pattern, a feed forward network

computation results in an output pattern which is the result of the
generalisation and synthesis of what ANN has learned and stored in
its connection strengths. The back propagation algorithm was given in
Appendix 4.

4.2.6 Selection of Network Type

There are multitudes of network types available for ANN

applications and its choice depends on the nature of problem and data. It is
very difficult to know which training algorithm will be the fastest for a given
problem. It will depend on many factors, including the complexity of the
problem, the number of data points in the training set, the number of weights
and biases in the network, the error goal, and whether the network is being
used for pattern recognition (discriminant analysis) or function approximation
(regression).

The ANNs can be categorized in terms of topology such as single

and multi-layer feed forward networks (FFNN), feedback networks (FBNN),
 42

recurrent networks (RNN), self-organized networks. In addition, they can be

further categorized in terms of application, connection type and learning
methods. The most commonly used type of networks in the field of modeling
and prediction is the FFNN. In this topology, the network is composed of one
input layer, one output layer and a minimum of one hidden layer. The term
feed forward describes the way in which the output of the FFNN is calculated
from its input layer-by-layer throughout the network. In this case, the
connections between network neurons do not form cycles. No matter how
complex the network is, its building block is a simple structure called the
neuron. It performs a weighted sum of its inputs and calculates an output
using certain predefined activation functions. Activation functions for the
hidden units are needed to introduce the nonlinearity into the network. The
Sigmoidal functions, such as logistic and tanh, and the Gaussian function, are
the most common choices for the activation functions.

Improperly trained neural networks may suffer from either

underfitting or overfitting. Selecting network structure is a crucial step in the
overall design of NNs (Suribabu et al 2005). The structure must be optimized
to reduce computer processing, achieve good performance and avoid
overfitting. The selection of the best number of hidden units depends on many
factors. The size of the training set, amount of noise in the targets, complexity
of the sought function to be modeled, type of activation functions used and
the training algorithm all have interacting effects on the sizes of the hidden
layers. There is no way to determine the best number of hidden units without
training several networks and estimating the generalization error of each. If
there are few hidden units, then high training error and high generalization
error due to underfitting may occur. On the other hand, if many hidden units
are used, low training error can be achieved at the expense of network
generalization which degrades overfitting.
 43

4.2.7 Method Description

Backpropagation algorithm is the training technique usually used

for this purpose. This algorithm appears to be the fastest method for training
moderate-sized feed forward neural networks (up to several hundred weights).
It also has a very efficient MATLAB implementation, because the solution of
the matrix equation is a built-in function, so its attributes become even more
pronounced in a MATLAB setting. It refers to the method for computing the
gradient of the case-wise error function with respect to the weights for a feed
forward network. The neural system architecture is defined by the number of
neurons and the way in which the neurons are interconnected. The network is
fed with a set of inputoutput pairs and trained to reproduce the outputs. The
training is done by adjusting the neurons weights using an optimization
algorithm to minimize the quadratic error between observed data and
computed outputs. Input-target training data are usually pretreated as
explained above in order to improve the numerical condition for the
optimization problem and for better behavior of the training process.

4.2.8 Merits and limitations of ANN

There are certain practical advantages and limitations of ANNs in

forecasting applications. The merits of ANNs include,

They can model complex non-linear input-output time series

relationships in wide variety of fields

Perform more accurately and rapidly than other techniques

such as statistical classifiers, statistical hydrological models
particularly when the feature space is complex and the source
data has different statistical distributions, or when the
 44

underlying processes are not well understood/ cannot be

handled adequately

Incorporate a prior knowledge and realistic physical

constraints into the analysis

Incorporate different types of data on diverse attributes into

the analysis, thus facilitating synergistic studies

3-layer feed forward ANNs using sigmoid transfer function

are found to be sufficient to implement any continuous and
bounded multivariate function mapping and thus are the most
widely accepted and applied in hydrologic modelling and

Depending on the input-output relationship, an appropriate

structure of ANN can be chosen reasonably easily.

The limitations include,

Need representative and adequate number of input and output

data sets for training the network chosen

Physical processes if not clearly understood formulating the

ANN structure may be difficult

Large number of iterations are involved in training and

becomes computationally intensive if the number of hidden
layers and number of nodes in each layer are wrongly chosen

Model results depend on input and output nodes selected for a

structure and

Finding optimal number of nodes in the hidden layer is

uncertain.
 45

The number of nodes in the hidden layer is an important but

indeterminate parameter with respect to computational efficiency and
accuracy of an ANN model. The number of nodes in the hidden layer can
range (Millar et al 1995) from (2n + 1) to (2n0.5 + m) where n is the number of
input nodes and m is number of output nodes. Though this forms a guideline,
the best results are obtained generally by trial and error.

4.3 RAINFALL RUNOFF MODELLING

In this study, we use an multilater perceptrons (MLP) trained with a

backpropagation algorithm to predict the runoff. (Riad et al 2004). The MLP
consists of an input layer consisting of node(s) representing various input
variable(s), the hidden layer consisting of many hidden nodes and an output
layer consisting of output variable(s). The input nodes pass on the input signal
values to the nodes in the hidden layer unprocessed. The values are
distributed to all the nodes in the hidden layer depending on the connection
weights wij and wjk. Connection weights are the interconnecting links between
the neurons in successive layers. Each neuron in a certain layer is connected
to every single neuron in the next layer by links having an appropriate and an
adjustable connection weight. The architecture of the neural network used in
this study and the schematic representation of a neuron are shown in
Figure 4.3.

In which, P1, P2P7 are the annual rainfall which is taken as input
to the model and output is the Runoff (R). H1, H2 and H3 are the hidden layers
of the model.
 46

P1 wij

H1
P2
wjk

P3

H2
P4
R

P5
H3

P6

H4
P7

Figure 4.3 ANN model for Rainfall-Runoff

4.4 INFLOW SEDIMENT YIELD MODELLING

There are no fixed rules for developing an ANN model, even though a general
framework can be followed based on previous successful applications in
engineering. In the present study, multilayer perceptrons (MLP) ANN model
architectures to estimate volume of sediment retained in the reservoir were
developed as shown in Figure 4.4. (Jothiprakash et al 2009). Using available
data of the study area, a trial and error approach was employed in the present
analysis to select the appropriate ANN architecture. The number of input
parameters in the ANN was determined on basis of parameters causing and
affecting the underlying process which are also easily measurable at the
reservoir site. The number of hidden layers and the number of nodes in each
hidden layer were also determined by a trial-and-error procedure. The number
of nodes in the hidden layer play a significant role in ANN model
performance. The Sigmoid and Hyperbolic Tangent (tan h) transfer functions
corresponding to a single sediment yield output were used to select the best
ANN architecture. H1, H2 H5 are the hidden nodes.
 47

H1
Annual rainfall
I1
H2
Volume of sediment
Annual inflow
I2
O1
H3

Annual capacity
I3 H4

H5

Figure 4.4 Neural Network Model Used for Sediment Yield Prediction

4.4.1 Training and Validation of Networks

In a MLP ANN, connections exist between nodes of different

layers, while no such connections exist between nodes within the same layer.
The inputs are presented to a network at the input layer, and are acted upon by
transformations to produce an output (Jain and Indurthy 2003). The neural
network learns by adjusting the weights and biases of such connections.
Before training, the initial network biases and weights were assigned small
random values. The split-sample approach was applied, in which part of the
available data from a site is used to develop a predictive relationship and then
tested with the remaining data. For training purpose, back propagation (BP)
training algorithm was used

The learning process was terminated when an optimum prediction

statistics (MSE=0.01 threshold) with respect to epoch size and validation
results were obtained. Once the training process was satisfactorily completed,
the network was saved, the test and validation data sets recalled and values
 48

predicted by the model were compared with the observed values. If the
prediction error statistics for these data sets were acceptable, then the neural
network structure was considered to perform well for predicting sediment
yield with different sets of data. The networks were trained with various
available input and output parameters. The performance of the models was
tested through statistical indicators such as coefficient of correlation (R2),
root-mean-square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) (Srinivasulu and
Jain 2006).

4.5 FORECASTING SEDIMENT DEPOSITION

The annual sediment deposition values of the reservoir are

forecasted based on the previous values. In addition to previous annual
sediment deposition values, annual rainfall and annual inflow are also
included in input layer. Artificial Neural Networks approach was applied to
forecast and estimate the future values of given data by using the computer
program codes that are written in MATLAB programming language. It was
composed of two phases. The first phase was the training of the neural
networks. Here feed forward back propagation neural network is used to train
the artificial neural networks. In the training procedure, one of the most
significant parts is determination of the number of hidden layers and the
nodes in input and hidden layers (Cigizoglu 2002a,b). In general one hidden
layer is found adequate for neural networks. The input layer and hidden layer
node number is adjusted by checking the training and testing stage
performances of neural networks. The determination coefficient and the mean
square error are the performance criterion for the testing stage.

Volume of sediment deposit and the capacity of Vaigai reservoir

are estimated by using the above said analytical method. Then ANN model
was trained and tested to predict the runoff, sediment deposition in the
reservoir.