9/2/2013

Welcome to Stat 101: Unit Outline

Introduction to Quantitative Methods for
Psychology and the Behavioral Sciences Course Logistics and Details

Kevin Rader, krader@fas.harvard.edu The What and Why of the Field of Statistics?
Much needed terminology
Snapshot of whats to come in the course

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Stat 100 vs. 101 vs. 102 vs. 104
Each course assumes no prior knowledge of statistics
They all cover the same basic statistical concepts (about 3/4 of
the course)s, though they each emphasize different topics
throughout
Stat 104 will cover more material and is more mathematically
rigorous, others are similar level.
Stat 101 will use mostly examples from psychology, general
social/behavioral sciences, and public health.
Stat 102 emphasizes medical and lab science examples
Stat 104 emphasizes examples from economics/finance
Stat 100 is a more general course with a wide-range of examples
More questions: ask after class.
Kevins Contact Info
My office: Science Center, Room SC-105 (likely to change)
Office Hours (stop in unannounced):
Tues 12:30-1:30pm and Thurs 11:30am-12:30pm
Also by appointment (via email)
Phone numbers:
Statistics Department: (617) 495-5496
My office (SC-105): NA
Email: krader@fas.harvard.edu (preferred over phone)

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Teaching Staff Course Website

Course website:
Teaching Fellows: http://isites.harvard.edu/icb/icb.do?keyword=k97307

Joseph Lee: lee26@fas.harvard.edu There you will find (eventually):

Lazhi Wang: wang75@fas.harvard.edu Syllabus
Administrative Announcements
Lecture Notes
Teaching assistants will be teaching sections, holding office SPSS Tutorial (including download and install instructions)
hours, answering questions via email, and grading
assignments and exams. Assigned Homeworks
HW #1 will be posted soon: Due Fri, Sept 13th
Other Study Material (practice exams, web links, etc...)

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Lecture Notes Class Meetings

Paper copies will NOT be handed out at the beginning of
lecture after this week (we will provide copies on Thursday).
Theyre organized in Units: which follow chapters in the
textbook (will diverge a bit at end of semester)
Lecture notes will be posted at least 24 hours in advance
Notes are somewhat concise you are encouraged to add
your own annotations and develop your own notes
Occasionally mistakes appear in lecture notes; corrected
versions will be posted after class
Lectures:
Tues & Thurs, 1011:30am, Science Center SC-Hall A
Sections
Optional (but strongly recommended) weekly section to discuss
homework, do extra problems, and review difficult concepts.
No section this week (begin week of Sept 9).
Look for announcement on the course website for permanent times
(OHs too).
SPSS Tutorials
To be held in SC-B09
One on Thursday afternoon and one on Monday afternoon. Times TBD.

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Textbook Computing and Calculations

For all exams (and some homework), you will need a
Statistical Methods for the Social Sciences, Agresti & Finlay, calculator with log, exponential, square-root functions.
4th edition. Amazon Link:
www.amazon.com/Statistical-Methods-Social-Sciences-Edition/dp/0205646417/
Statistical Computing Package: SPSS
Texts website - http://bcs.whfreeman.com/ips7e/
Can be downloaded from:
(6th edition will work fine, 5th ed is prob OK too)
http://downloads.fas.harvard.edu/download
About half of the assigned homework problems will be Tutorial Document on website:
assigned from the text, so its a good idea to have a copy. http://isites.harvard.edu/icb/icb.do?keyword=k97307&pag
Its a great reference for more details on what is seen in the eid=icb.page624278
lectures. Fairly straightforward explanations. HW #1 will include an introduction to the software. There
are also the SPSS Tutorial Sessions
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Exams Homeworks
Posted to course website on Fridays:
Tues, October 10th: Midterm I, 10-11:30am (in class) http://isites.harvard.edu/icb/icb.do?keyword=k97307&pageid=icb.page6
24266
Tues, Nov 12th: Midterm II, 10-11:30am (in class)
Hard Copies must be handed in to the 3rd floor HW
Tues, Dec 12-20 : Final Exam, Date and Time TBD
th
boxes.

You will be allowed 1 cheat sheet for Midterm 1, 2 sheets

for midterm 2, and 3 sheets for the Final Exam (front and Late homeworks will only be accepted with an official
back OK). University excuse (either from UHS or from your
resident deans office). NO HW Scores will be
dropped!

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HW Collaboration
You are encouraged to discuss homework with other
Group Project
students (and with the instructor and TFs, of course), but Will be a roughly 3-5 page paper of text (graphs, tables,
you must write your final answers yourself, in your own etc are in addition to that) based on a data analysis of
words. your choosing.

Solutions prepared in committee or by copying or Groups of size 2 or 3 required. Very helpful to bounce
paraphrasing someone elses work are not acceptable; your ideas of each other.
handed-in assignment must represent your own thoughts.
All computer output you submit must come from work that Due towards end of reading period (Dec. 10).
you have done yourself.
More details about the project to come later in the semester
Please indicate on your problem sets the names of the (around Oct 31st).
students with whom you worked.
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Course Grading
Course Goals for Students
Component Weighting1 Weighting2 Weighting3

Homeworks 30% 30% 30% To learn and understand descriptive statistics and graphical
summaries, basic probability theory, and statistical inference.
Midterm 1 10% 20% 20%
To introduce a range of quantitative tools and methods of
Midterm 2 20% 10% 20% analysis commonly used in the social, psychological and
Final Exam 30% 30% 20% behavioral sciences with an emphasis on application of methods
to real data.
Project 10% 10% 10%
To become statistically skilled. At the end of the course, you
Total 100% 100% 100%
should be able to address a research question by choosing a
Your overall score for the course will be the maximum of the 3 weighting good data source, be able to figure out and perform what
schemes presented above. Final course letter grades are not assigned
according to a fixed percentages of A's, B's etc (i.e., the course is not `curved'). analysis is most appropriate, and be able to report the findings
Letter grades are assigned to the old-fashioned boundaries of A- to A: 90 - 100 that are technically accurate. You should also be able to know
final score; B- to B+: 80 - 90, etc. Slight adjustments may be made on the the limitations of your results.
boundaries of letter grades (boundary moved down a bit).
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Unit 1: Intro to Statistics
Chapter 1 in the Text
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Proving Points with Statistics
Social Sciences
Health
Sports
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9/2/2013
So what is statistics?
(and why is it so cool?)
The study of the methods for obtaining, organizing,
analyzing, and interpreting data.
Why bother? Principles provide a framework for
Collecting data and the design of experiments and
observational studies (Design)
Describing and summarizing data (Description)
Drawing inferences about populations as a whole and
predicting future events (Inference)
Short story: Statistics is the science of using data to prove a
point (and hopefully forming a correct conclusion).
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Other questions that could be
addressed statistically
What are the features of online ads that are more likely to capture
your attention?
How (if at all) is happiness associated with income, job
satisfaction, social life, religious beliefs, or political ideology?
Does a smoking ban in bars lower the rate of lung cancer?
How can we study whether a new therapy is better than a standard
therapy for treating depression?
Is David Ortiz truly a clutch hitter? Is Alex Rodriguez anti-clutch?
Can we predict which teams in the NFL will improve from last
year?
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In Class Exercise: Research

Population vs. Sample
Question about Harvard Students
Population: entire group of individuals on which we
desire information.
Lets brainstorm! In small groups (2 to 4 students) Technicality: actual vs. conceptual populations
discuss something you would like to find out about For our Harvard study:
your fellow Harvard classmates (the whole student
body or a subgroup).
Kevins Boring Example: Who sends more text Sample: a part of the population on which we
messages: men or women? actually collect data.
Please think of a more interesting example For our Harvard study:

Any group want to share their example with the class?

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How does this apply to the framework

Parameters and Statistics
of Statistical studies (3 parts)?
Descriptive statistics: summarize the data in the Design: Study planning Description: Graphical Inference: predictions
actual sample of data. and implementation and numerical methods about the population based
for summarizing data on the sample
Inferential statistics: provide predictions or
generalizations about the population based on the How should the study What are the How do these
data we collected in the sample. be conducted? characteristics of the measurements generalize
subjects in our to all student of interest
Parameter: a numerical summary of the population. sample? (the population)?
How should we select
For our Harvard study: students (subjects) for
What are the Could we predict how
the study? How many
summary the measurements would
should be included?
Statistic: a numerical summary of the sample data. measurements of the relate in the larger
For our Harvard study: data we collected? population?
What information
(data) do we need to How do our Anything further to
collect? measurements relate? investigate in the future?
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Software can helpa lot! Take Home Message: 3 Major

Overarching Topics in the Course
Here is just a quick preview
of what a dataset (a
collection of measurements
1) Design: planning and obtaining data for your research
for the subjects in a
sample) looks like in SPSS:
study.

Each column represents a 2) Description: summarizing the data in your sample.

variable (a characteristic
measured on the subjects)
3) Inference: making predictions based on the data and
Each row represents a generalizing the results for the population.
different subject, and
contains the observations
for that subject 26
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Last Word
If you are planning on taking this course, you should
Download and install SPSS from FAS IT:
http://downloads.fas.harvard.edu/download
Go to the course website and follow the SPSS tutorial
document. And/or attend an SPSS tutorial session (the
schedule will be posted on the website later today).
Read through (or at least browse) chapters 1 and 2 in the
text.
Be aware that HW #1 will be posted by the end of the
week (it is due next Friday, Sept. 13th).
Be happy!

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