NEW BRUNSWICK

EMBARGOED UNTIL:
6 AM EST, JUNE 29, 2017
Methodology
Mainstreet surveyed a stratied random sample of
1,500 New Brunswick Residents from June 21-22,
2017 through Chimera IVR. Respondents were
screened to conrm voting eligibility. Landline and
Cell lines were included. Responses were weighted
using demographic information to targets based
on the 2011 Census. Totals may not add up to 100
due to rounding.
The margin of error for survey results is 2.53
percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Regional Margins of Error
Fredericton CMA
4.36 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Moncton CMA
4.36 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
Rest of New Brunswick
4.38 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
About Mainstreet
With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal
majority government in the 2015 federal election.
Contact Information
In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Montral: David Valentin, Executive Vice
President. david@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
GREEN PARTY SURGES IN GREATER FREDERICTON, LIBERALS LEAD PROVINCE-WIDE

June 29, 2017 (Ottawa, ON) A new Mainstreet/iPolitics poll conducted in advance of the upcoming New
Brunswick general election nds Brian Gallants Liberal Party is the most popular choice among voters in
the province, while David Coons Green party has a large pocket of support in the Fredericton CMA. Justin
Trudeaus federal Liberals are also leading comfortably in the province. The Mainstreet/iPolitics poll has a
margin of error of +/- 2.35 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

While Gallant and the Liberals have decreased in popularity since the 2014 election, they maintain a
healthy lead said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. However, the real surprise in this poll
was the surge in support for the Green Party in the Greater Fredericton Area. It will be interesting to see if
the Greens can leverage these numbers into additional seats, Green Party leader David Coon already holds
FrederictonSouth, and whether they might be able to make inroads elsewhere in the province.

Federally, Justin Trudeaus Liberals are dominating in every region of the province with the support of 58%
of decided & leaning voters.

David Coon is the most popular provincial leader with a net approval of +10 (approval minus disapproval).
Brian Gallant holds a score of +1, while PC leader Brian Higgs scores -6 and NDP leader Rosarie LItalian
holds a net approval of -7.

The Mainstreet/iPolitics poll also surveyed support in New Brunswick for the Energy East pipeline, as well
as a potential Carbon tax.

Support in New Brunswick is strong for the Energy East pipeline while its soft for a potential carbon tax.
23% of current provincial voters say the introduction of a carbon tax would make it less likely for them to
vote liberal. There are risks for both the federal and provincial liberal parties in the province. For the federal
liberals, lack of action on Energy East could cost votes while the provincial liberals will need to be careful
about how they message and act on a carbon tax that could increase costs for voters, nished Maggi.

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, (514) 913-5524 - david@mainstreetresearch.ca

 Decided & Leaning Voters

Provincial Liberals Lead the Way

Outside of Fredericton, Brian Gallants Liberal Party is
leading the way in decided & leaning voter intentions.

Their greatest support is found in the Moncton Census

Metropolitan Area (CMA) where they hold a 30 point
lead over the PCs.

Outside of Fredericton and Moncton CMAs, in the Rest

of New Brunswick, the Liberals also hold a large 21
point lead.

Its a dierent case altogether in the Fredericton

Census Metropolitan Area where the Greens, Liberals
and PCs are locked in a three-way race.

It looks as if the Greens have been able to use their

beachhead in Fredericton South to grow support - but
whether that would translate into additional seats is
tough to tell. Theres currently just as good a chance
that the Progressive Conservatives or Liberals would be
able to ride vote splits to claim victory.

With the Liberals solidly leading in a majority of the

province, the numbers today point to a Liberal Majority
Government.
All Voters
 Decided & Leaning Voters

Federal Liberals Dominate

Its all bad news for the Federal Conservatives and NDP
in New Brunswick right now.

If an election were held today, the Federal Liberals led

by Justin Trudeau would be in line to once again win
every single seat.

Given regional margins of error, the Federal Liberals are

performing equally well across the entire province.

The Conservatives perform best in the Rest of New

Brunswick, but even there they face a daunting 31-point
lead to overcome.

While there is good news for the Federal Liberals today

there is still another two years to go and 19% of the
province is undecided in voter intentions among all
voters.
All Voters
LIBERAL PC GREEN

STRONG SUPPORTERS

60% 60% 53%

MIGHT CHANGE/NOT SURE

40% 40% 47%

 SECOND CHOICES (NOT STRONG ONLY)

LIBERAL PC GREEN

32% 24% 21%

11% 23% 36%

45% 40% 28%

Favourability Ratings

What They Think:

About the Leaders

Brian Gallant
Favourable: 35%
Unfavourable: 34%
Not Sure: 26%
Not Familiar with: 5%

Net Approval: +1

New Brunswick voters give the best approval scores to Green Party
leader David Coon, with 31% saying they have a favourable opinion of
him and 21% saying they have an unfavourable opinion; a net
approval rating of +10.
Blaine Higgs
Favourable: 25%
Blain Higgs and Rosarie DItalian post negative net approvals with Unfavourable: 31%
Higgs at -6 and DItalian at -7. In the case of Higgs this is partly Not Sure: 31%
Not Familiar with: 14%
because underperforms with his own voters, only 64% of PC Voters
Net Approval: -6
say they have a favourable impression. For comparison, 72% of
provincial liberal voters say they have a favourable view of Brian
Gallant.

Coon does the best among his own voters with 78% of provincial
green party voters stating that they have a favourable view of Coon.
Despite that, a signicant amount of New Brunswick voters either are
not familiar with Coon or dont have a clear opinion, almost half the
province at 47%.

David Coon
Favourable: 31%
Unfavourable: 21%
Not Sure: 30%
Not Familiar with: 17%

Net Approval: +10

 ENERGY
SHOWDOWN
Q: A pipeline project has been proposed that would bring crude oil from Western Canada to Eastern Canada to be
rened. The pipeline is known as the Energy East Pipeline. Supporters of the pipeline say it will create jobs and that
it's important for Canadians to use Canadian oil, not oil imported from Saudi Arabia. Opponents of the pipeline say
the potential for oil spills and damage to the environment means the pipeline is not worth the cost. In your opinion,
do you approve or disapprove of the Energy East Pipeline?
Q: New Brunswick is considering introducing a Carbon Tax. Carbon taxes aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions
by setting a price on pollutants. It is estimated that a carbon tax could cost the average New Brunswick household
an extra $40 per month by increasing the cost of heating and transportation fuel, like gasoline. Do you approve or
disapprove of a Carbon Tax in New Brunswick?
Q: If the provincial liberal government introduces a carbon tax would you be more likely or less likely to vote Liberal
in the next election, or would it make no dierence, or are you not sure?