10532 S1218W147

2016 4 20


10532
S1218W147

2016 4 20

2016 5 30

Research on the Credit Risk Pre-warnings of Ali Small Loan

By

CHEN Xiaohui

B.A. (Hunan University) 2012

A thesis submitted in partial satisfaction of the

Requirements for the degree of

Master of Economics

in

Finance

in the

Graduate School

of

Hunan University

Supervisor

Associate professor LONG Haiming, LI Youwen

April, 2016


II


Abstract

With the informational technology currently booming in a increasing pace and the
national economy steadily soaring, internet technology faces application in wider
realms, and various sorts of economic and social innovations dependent on the rise of
the informational technology have been a frequent occurrence. Among them, finance,
lying in the heart of the economic growth, has been in the combination with the
internet, nurturing the novel developing pattern of internet finance, in turn spurring
traditional finance on to further reforms and business upgrades. As internet finance
goes through several years of practice and improving, multiple risks associated with
finance and especially credits unveiled in the process have attracted more recognition.
In this article, we pick Ali small loan, representative of the patterns of internet
finance, for example analysis, based on theoretical directions against todays
background. We first categorize multiple views from experts at home and abroad on
internet finance with its risks, defining the concepts, characteristics and primary
patterns of internet finance.
Secondly, we take a further step exploring the credit risks in internet finance,
seeking its main cause and primary affecting factors, as well as listing out business
patterns and procedures of Ali small loan, in the meantime discussing its controlling
mechanisms of credit risks in three dimensions of time, namely before-credit, in-credit
and after-credit.
Moreover, based on the introduced necessity and practicing procedures of credit
risk alerts, we theoretically discuss the practicing principles of blurred gray integrated
assessment and practically make concrete calculations and example-based analytical
verifications on multiple cases of Ali small loan, eventually reaching according
conclusions.
Finally, with preliminary results as researching foundations, we introduce several
countermeasures and advise on the credit risk alerts of internet finance.

Keywordsinternet finance; Ali small loan; credit risk pre-warnings

III


.................................................... I
........................................................................................................................ II
Abstract .....................................................................................................................III
.................................................................................................................. VI
................................................................................................................. VII
1 .......................................................................................................... 1
1.1 ................................................................................................ 1
1.2 ............................................................................................................ 2
1.2.1 .............................................................................................. 2
1.2.2 .............................................................................................. 3
1.3 ................................................................................................ 5
1.3.1 .............................................................................................. 5
1.3.2 .............................................................................................. 5
1.4 ........................................................................................................ 7
2 ....................................................................... 8
2.1 ............................................................................................................ 8
2.1.1 .................................................................................. 8
2.1.2 ......................................................... 10
2.2 ................................................................................... 13
2.2.1 ................................................................. 13
2.2.2 ............................................................. 14
2.2.3 ..................................................................... 16
3 .......................................................... 18
3.1 .......................................................................................... 18
3.1.1 ................................................................................................... 18
3.1.2 ............................................................. 19
3.1.3 ......................................................... 19
3.2 ............................................................ 21
3.2.1 .................................................................................... 21
3.2.2 ..................................................... 21
3.2.3 AHP ................................................................. 22

IV


3.3 ............................................................ 25
3.3.1 ..................................................................... 25
3.3.2 ......................................................... 26
4 .............................................................. 30
4.1 .......................................................................................................... 30
4.2 ................................................................ 31
4.3 ..................................... 34
4.4 ....................................................................... 35
5 ........................................... 40
5.1 .................................................................................................. 40
5.1.1 ............................................................................................ 40
5.1.2 ............................................................................................ 41
5.1.3 ............................................................................................ 41
5.2 .................................................................................................. 42
5.2.1 ........................................................................ 42
5.2.2 ........................................................................ 42
....................................................................................................................... 43
................................................................................................................... 45
....................................................................................................................... 48
....................................................................................................................... 51

1.1 ............................................................................................6
2.1 ...................................................................................... 9
2.2 ........................................................10
2.3 ........................................................................12
3.1 ............................................................20
3.2 ................................................................. 23
3.3 .....................................26
3.4 f 1 (x)......................................................................... 27
3.5 f 2 (x)........................................................................28
3.6 f 3 (x)..............................................................................28

VI


2.1 .......................................................17
3.1 ....................................................22
3.2 AHP ..........................................................24
3.3 RI ..................................................25
4.1 AHP ..........................................................................31
4.2 .......................................................32
4.3 ...............................................33
4.4 ..............................................33
4.5 .......................................34
4.6 ..................................................35
4.7 ........................................................35
4.8 T 11 ...................................36
4.9 ..............................................................37

VII


1.1

1.

2014 11

2.

3.

-1-


1.2

P2P

1.2.1
1.
Steelman2006
[1]
Agarwal Hauswald2008
[2] Sufi 2007
Michael Klafft2008

[3,4]
Herzenstein et a12008 Pope and Sydnor
2011 P2P

P2P
[5,6] Michaels2012 Prosper

[7]
2.
SachsTornell and Velasco1996

[8] Nag Mitra1999

-2-


[9] Olivier Jeanne, Paul R. Masson1998 Jeanne

MassonFratzscher
[10]

3.
Dan JKim2005
eBay [11] Wang Ya-ling2011

[12] Sheng Zhou(2011)

[13]

1.2.2
1.
2012

P2P
[14] 2000

[15] 2013

[16]

2013

[17] 2003

[18] 2003
[19]

2012

-3-


2013

[20] 2013

P2P
[21]
(2013)

[16] (2013)

[22]
2013

[23]
2013
[24] 2013

[25] 2013

[26] 2013

[27] 2013

[28]
2.2012
SWOT
[29] 2010 P2P
[30] 2013

-4-


[31]
2015 P2P
P2P [32] 2013

[33] 2015
[34] 2015

[35]

P2P

1.3

1.3.1

1.

2.

3.

1.3.2

-5-


1.1

-6-


1.4

1.

2.

3.

-7-


P2P

P2P P2P

2.1

2.1.1
1.

2002

2002

2003 2011

2007

-8-


B2B

2010 6

2012

2014

2016 1 AFSRC

2.1

-9-


2.

2.2

2.2

2.1.2
1.

- 10 -


B2B

2.

2.3

- 11 -


B2B

2.3

2013.

3.





[36]

- 12 -


2.2

2.2.1
1.

1800

2.

- 13 -


P2P

P2P

2.2.2
1.

- 14 -


2.

- 15 -


3
P2P

2.2.3

1.

360 [37]

2.

- 16 -


3.

1.5

2.1

2.1

1. 360
2.
3.
1.

2.
1.
2.

- 17 -


3.1

3.1.1

[38]

2006
J. R. Morgen
10%
1530%
5060% [39]

2013

P2P

- 18 -


2009

[40] 2015
excel-VBA P2P

[41]

3.1.2

1.

2.

3.1.3

- 19 -


3.1

- 20 -


3.2

3.2.1

1.

2.

3.

4.

3.2.2

- 21 -


3.1

3.1

T T i T ij

T 11
T 12
T 1 T 13
T 14

T 15
T
T 21
T 22
T 2
T 23
T 24

3.2.3 AHP

DelphiAHP
[42]

- 22 -


1.

3.2 [43]

B1 B B3

C1 C2 C3 C4

3.2

2.

, a ij > 0 A i Aj A = (a ij )nn
1
a ji =
a ij

A B A 9 A
7 A 5 3 1
1/31/51/71/9
19 3.2

- 23 -


3.2 AHP

1
3
5
7
9
2468 2468
11/21/31/9

3.

n
1 Bi Bi = aij i=12n
j =1

2 Bi C i = n Bi i=12n

Ci
3 C = (C1 , C 2 , C N )T Wi = n

i=12n
C
i =1
i

W = (W1 , W2 , W N )T W1 W2 Wn

4.

1 CI
n

a W ij j
max n 1 n
=
j =1
CI = max n
n 1 n i =1 Wi

A = (a ij )nn CI=0 max n CI

CI
2 CR CR =
RI
Saaty CR

- 24 -


CI RI CI=( - n) / (n - 1) CI
A
CI=0 A RI 100-150
n (n=1211) CI 3.3

3.3 RI

n 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11
RI 0 0 0.58 0.90 1.12 1.24 1.32 1.41 1.45 1.49 1.51
n=12 RI=0 1 2 n3
A
CR
CR<0.1 A

CR0.1

3.3

3.3.1

2008

[44] 2005

[45]

- 25 -


3.3.2
1.
T T i Ti1 , Ti 2 , L, Tini T i
m
a i (i = 1,2, L, m ) a i 0 a
i =1
i =1

A = (a1 , a 2 , L, a m ) T = (T1 , T2 , L, TM ) Tij

( )
m
a ij Ai = a i1 , a i 2 , L, a ini Ti a i 0 a
i =1
ij =1

AHP
3.3

CR=CI/RI<0.1

3.3

2.

- 26 -


3.
T i D e k
T i j T ij d jpg
d i11 d i12 L d i1n
d d i 22 L d i 2 n
D=
i 21

d d ij (i ) p L d ij (i ) p
ij (i ) p
4.

f n ( x )
1 [0, d1 , )
0, x [ ,0 )

x
f 1 (x ) = , x [0, d 1 )
d1
1, x [d 1 , )

f 1 (x)

0 1 x

3.4 f 1 (x)

- 27 -


2 [0, d1 ,2d1 )

x
d , x [0, d 1 )
1
2 x
f 2 (x ) = , x [d 1 ,2d 1 )
d 1
0, x [0,2d 1 )

f 2 (x)

0 1 21 x

3.5 f 2 (x)

3 [0, d1 , d 2 )

x
d , x [0, d 1 )
1
d x
f 3 (x ) = 2 , x [d 1 , d 2 )
d 2 d 1
0, x [0,2d 1 )

f 3 (x)

0 1 2 x

3.6 f 3 (x)
C 1 , C 2 , L, C g g f 1 (x) ,f 2 (x) ,L , f g (x)

5.

- 28 -


T ij
T ij d i1p ,d i2p ,L,dijp
T ij s C s f s (d ij1 ), f s (d ij2 ),L,f s (d ijp )

f (d ) Tij
p
C s s ijk
k =1

f (d )
g p
s T ij s ijk
s =1 k =1

T ij s C s
T ij C s r ijs

f (d )
p

s ijk
rijs = k =1
, s = 1,2, L, g
f (d )
g p

s ijk
s =1 k =1

r ijs r ij T ij
rij = (rij1 , rij 2 , L, rijg ), i = 1,2, L, m; j = 1,2, L, ni
T i
T i Ti1 , Ti 2 , L, Tini
(
Ai = a i1 , a i 2 , L, a ini )
T i Bi = Ai Ri = bi1 , bi 2 , L, big ( )
R i r ij
ri1 ri11 ri12 L ri1g
r r ri 22 L ri 2 g
Ri = = , i = 1,2, L, m
i2 i 21

M M M O M

rini rini 1 rini 2 L rini g

6.

T = (T1, , T2 , L, Tm ) A = (a1 , a 2 , L, a m )

T T B = A R = b1 , b2 , L, b g ( )
R = (B1 , B 2 , L, Bm )T

B = (b1 , b2 , L, b g ) W
1 , 2 , L, g g
C 1 , C 2 , L, C g W = B (1 , 2 , L, g )T = b1 1 + b2 2 + L + b g g
f 1 (W) , f 2 (W) , L , f g (W) W

- 29 -


4.1

A 2014

A 200
100

50

A
50

- 30 -


3 6 12 A
12

4.2

A
T T i
T 1 T 2 T ij T 11
T 12 T 12 T 14 T 15 T 21
T 22 T 23 T 24

m m

Saaty 1-9
4.1
4.1 AHP

Pij Pi Pj

Pi 1 5

Pj 1/5 1

Pi Pj 5 Pij =5 Pji =1/5

11
MATLAB

1.

11 MATLAB

- 31 -


4.2

W (1) = [ 0.25 0.75]

T
1 2

W (2) = [ 0.25 0.75]

T
2 2

W (3) = [ 0.5 0.5]

T
3 2

W (4) = [ 0.5 0.5]

T
4 2

W (5) = [ 0.8333 0.1667 ]

T
5 2

W (6) = [ 0.3333 0.6667 ]

T
6 2

W (7) = [ 0.5 0.5]

T
7 2

W (8) = [ 0.3333 0.6667 ]

T
8 2

W (9) = [ 0.5 0.5]

T
9 2

W (10) = [ 0.1667 0.8333]

T
10 2

W (11) = [ 0.5 0.5]

T
11 2

n = 2 RI = 0
1
n = 2 RI = 0
11
W = (0.4242 0.5758)
T

2.

11 MATLAB
1
P
(k )
=
1 + aCR ( k )

- 32 -


a 10
4.3
4.3

max W1
(k )
CR ( k ) P(k ) P ( k )

1 5.2049 [0.3027 0.0674 0.2474 0.3061 0.0764] T 0.0457 0.6862 0.0834

2 5.1380 [0.1704 0.1704 0.3766 0.2193 0.0633] T 0.0308 0.7644 0.0929

3 5.0406 [0.1192 0.3401 0.2143 0.2610 0.0654] T 0.0091 0.9168 0.1115

4 5.1414 [0.1037 0.2232 0.0646 0.4624 0.1461] T 0.0316 0.7600 0.0924

5 5.0394 [0.2809 0.1266 0.2557 0.2557 0.0811] T 0.0088 0.9192 0.1118

6 5.2169 [0.1610 0.3539 0.0816 0.3539 0.0496] T 0.0484 0.6737 0.0819

7 5.1786 [0.1640 0.0779 0.3577 0.3577 0.0426] T 0.0399 0.7149 0.0869

8 5.0556 [0.3435 0.1290 0.3435 0.1290 0.0551] T 0.0124 0.8895 0.1082

9 5.2484 [0.2815 0.1204 0.2408 0.2140 0.1433] T 0.0555 0.6433 0.0782

10 5.4020 [0.2366 0.0741 0.5400 0.0384 0.1110] T 0.0897 0.5271 0.0641

11 5.1665 [0.3969 0.1303 0.2802 0.1303 0.0623] T 0.0372 0.7290 0.0886

4.3 CR
(k )
< 0.1 k =
1, 2....11 11
11
=
W1 P
k =1
(k )
W1( k )

W1 = [0.2323 0.1696 0.2673 0.2511 0.0797]T

3.

11 MATLAB
4.4
4.4

(k )
W2 CR ( k ) P(k )
max
P (k )

1 4.1752 [0.1529 0.4611 0.2620 0.1241] T 0.0649 0.6065 0.0685

T
2 4.0206 [0.1313 0.3540 0.3540 0.1607] 0.0076 0.9290 0.1049
T
3 4.0407 [0.3041 0.2380 0.3818 0.0762] 0.0151 0.8690 0.0981
4 4.0606 [0.1501 0.3722 0.3722 0.1056] T 0.0225 0.8166 0.0922

- 33 -


5 4.1170 [0.1175 0.2622 0.5650 0.0553] T 0.0433 0.6977 0.0788

6 4.0756 [0.0933 0.2653 0.5534 0.0879] T 0.0280 0.7813 0.0882
T
7 4.0000 [0.0833 0.4167 0.4167 0.0833] 0.0000 1.0000 0.1129
8 4.1145 [0.0753 0.2697 0.5349 0.1201] T 0.0424 0.7022 0.0793
9 4.0606 [0.3397 0.2390 0.2808 0.1404] T 0.0225 0.8166 0.0922
10 4.1545 [0.1131 0.4114 0.4114 0.0641] T 0.0572 0.6360 0.0718
T
11 4.0000 [0.1250 0.3750 0.3750 0.1250] 0.0000 1.0000 0.1129

4.4 CR
(k )
< 0.1 k =
1, 2....11 11
11
=
W2 P
k =1
(k )
W2( k )

W2 = [0.1543 0.3328 0.4074 0.1053]T

() 4.5

4.5

T T i T ij

T 11 (0.2323)
T 12 (0.1696)
T 1 (0.4242) T 13 (0.2673)
T 14 (0.2511)

T 15 (0.0797)
T
T 21 (0.1543)
T 22 (0.3328)
T 2 (0.5758)
T 23 (0.4074)
T 24 (0.1053)

4.3

=
[=
1 2 3 4 ] [2 4 6 8] 2
4 6
8

- 34 -


4.6

4.6

0d <3 3 d <5 5d <7 7 d 10

11 10 A
4.7

4.7

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

T 11 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 2

T 12 3 2 2 2 2 3 2 2 2 2 2

T 13 3 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 2 1 3

T 14 5 5 4 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6
T1
T T 15 3 2 1 3 3 2 2 3 3 3 2
T 21 2 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 3
T 22 2 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
T 23 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 2 2 2 1
T2 T 24 4 2 1 3 3 3 4 3 4 3 4

4.4
1.
2000
[46]

2468
[0,10]
(1) [0, 2, 4]

1 0 x2
4 x

=
f1 ( x) 2 x4
2
0 x [0, 4]

(2) [0, 4,8]

- 35 -


x
4 0 x4

8 x
=
f 2 ( x) 4 x8
4
0 x [0,8]

(3) [0, 6,10]

x
6 0 x6

10 x
=
f3 ( x) 6 x 10
4
0 x [0,10]

(4) [0,8,10]

x
8 0 x8

=
f 4 ( x) 1 8 x 10
0 x [0,10]

2.
11
Excel
4.8 T11

f1 ( x) f 2 ( x) f3 ( x) f 4 ( x)
2 1.0000 0.5000 0.3333 0.2500

2 1.0000 0.5000 0.3333 0.2500

2 1.0000 0.5000 0.3333 0.2500

2 1.0000 0.5000 0.3333 0.2500

1 1.0000 0.2500 0.1667 0.1250

2 1.0000 0.5000 0.3333 0.2500

2 1.0000 0.5000 0.3333 0.2500

- 36 -


2 1.0000 0.5000 0.3333 0.2500

1 1.0000 0.2500 0.1667 0.1250

2 1.0000 0.5000 0.3333 0.2500

2 1.0000 0.5000 0.3333 0.2500

11.0000 5.0000 3.3333 2.5000 21.8333

0.5038 0.2290 0.1527 0.1145

T11
r11 = [0.5038 0.2290 0.1527 0.1145]T

T12T13T14T15T21T22T23T24
r12 = [0.4348 0.2609 0.1739 0.1304]T r13 = [0.3083 0.3193 0.2128 0.1596]T
r14 = [0.0000 0.3072 0.3959 0.2969]T r15 = [0.3536 0.2983 0.1989 0.1492]T
r21 = [0.3232 0.3124 0.2083 0.1562]T r22 = [0.4916 0.2346 0.1564 0.1173]T
r23 = [0.4922 0.2344 0.1563 0.1172]T r24 = [0.1964 0.3709 0.2473 0.1855]T
A
4.9

4.9

T i T ij

T 11 (0.2323) 0.5038 0.2290 0.1527 0.1145

T 12 (0.1696) 0.4348 0.2609 0.1739 0.1304

T 13 (0.2673) 0.3083 0.3193 0.2128 0.1596

T 1 (0.4242)
T 14 (0.2511) 0.0000 0.3072 0.3959 0.2969
T 15 (0.0797) 0.3536 0.2983 0.1989 0.1492
T 21 (0.1543) 0.3232 0.3124 0.2083 0.1562
T 22 (0.3328) 0.4916 0.2346 0.1564 0.1173
T 2 (0.5758) T 23 (0.4074) 0.4922 0.2344 0.1563 0.1172
T 24 (0.1053) 0.1964 0.3709 0.2473 0.1855

4.9

- 37 -


A
3. T1 , T2
T1

0.5038 0.2290 0.1527 0.1145

0.4348 0.2609 0.1739 0.1304

=R1 [r=
11 r12 r13 r14 r15 ]T
0.3083 0.3193 0.2128 0.1596

0.0000 0.3072 0.3959 0.2969
0.3536 0.2983 0.1989 0.1492

T2 :

0.3232 0.3124 0.2083 0.1562

0.4916 0.2346 0.1564 0.1173
=R2 [r= r22 r23 r24 ]
T
21
0.4922 0.2344 0.1563 0.1172

0.1964 0.3709 0.2473 0.1855

T1 , T2
W1 = [0.2323 0.1696 0.2673 0.2511 0.0797]T
W2 = [0.1543 0.3328 0.4074 0.1053]T
Bi = Wi * Ri Ti
B1 = [0.3014 0.2837 0.2371 0.1778]
B2 = [0.4347 0.2608 0.1739 0.1304]
A



4. T
T
B1 0.3014 0.2837 0.2371 0.1778
=R =
B2 0.4347 0.2608 0.1739 0.1304
T W = (0.4242 0.5758)T
B = W * R Ti
B = [ 0.3781 0.2705 0.2007 0.1505]

- 38 -


2
4
Z =B T =[ 0.3781 0.2705 0.2007 0.1505] = 4.2469
6

8
4.6 A

5.
A

- 39 -


P2P
P2P

5.1

5.1.1

Trans union
ExperianEquifax

P2P

P2P

- 40 -


5.1.2

5.1.3

- 41 -


5.2

5.2.1

5.2.2

P2P

- 42 -


P2P
2

P2P

- 43 -


- 44 -


[1] Steelman, Gleisner F. Emergence of Financial Intermediaries on Electronic

Markets: The Case of Online P2P Lending[J]. Working Paper, University of
Frankfurt, 2006
[2] Agarwal, Hauswald. Distance and Private Information in Lending[J]. The
Review of Financial Studies, 2008
[3] Sufi, A. Information asymmetry and financing arrangements: evidence from
syndicated loans[J]. Journal of Finance, 2007, 62(2):23-2
[4] Michael Klafft. Peer to Peer Lending: Auctioning Micro-credits over the Internet.
Proceedings of the International Conference on Information Systems[J].
Technology and Management, 2008, (2):1-8
[5] Herzenstein, M. , Andrews. R. L., Dholakia, U. M. , and Lyandres, E. The
democratization of personal consumer loans? Determinants of success in online
peer-to-peer lending communities[J].Working paper, University of Delaware,
Wilmington,DE,2008,(2):41-62
[6] Pope, D. G., and Sydnor, J. R. Whats in a picture? Evidence of discrimination
from Prosper. corn[J]. Journal of Human Resources, 2011, 46(1):53-92
[7] Michaels, J. Do unverifiable disclosures matters? Evidence from peer-to-peer
lending[J]. The Accounting Review, 2012, 87(4):36-41
[8] Sachs J. , A. Tornell, A. Velasco. Financial Crises in Emerging Markets: The
Lessons from 1995[R]. NBER Working Paper, 1996
[9] Nag A. , A. Mitra. Neural Networks and Early Warning Indicators of Currency
Crisis[J]. Reserve Bank of India Occasional Papers, 1999(202): 183-222
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1. 11

1 1 1 5
1 1 1 1 1 1 (5)
T (1)
= 3 T (2)
= 3 T (3)
= T (4)
= T = 1

1 1 1 1 1
3 1 3 1 5

1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 (10) 1
= 2 T = =
2 T = T = 5
(6) (7) (8) (9)
T
T

1 1 1 1
2 1 2 1 5 1
1 1
T (11) =
1 1

2. 11

1 1 1 1
1 5 1 1 5 1 1 1 3 1 2
1 1 1 1
3

3 2 2

1 1 3 3
1 1 1 2 1 5
5 3 3 2
1

3 1
T (1)
= 1 3 1 1 3 T (2)
= T1(3) = 2 1 1 3
1
1
3 3 1 1 5 2
1 3 1 1 7 1 1 1 1 3 2 1 1 1 4
1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
1
2
5 3 7 1
3 3 5 3 2 5 3 4

1 1 1
1 2 1 1
2 4 2 1 3 1 1 3 1 3 4
1 3 3
2
2
1 1 1
1 3 1 2 3 1 5 1 5
2 3 2 2 1
= 1 1
1 1
T1(4) 1 1 T1(5) = 1 2 1 1 3 T1(6) = 1 3
1 3 5 5
2 3 5 3 1 2 1 1 3
4 3 1 5
5
1 5
2 5 1 1

1 1 1
1
1 1 1 1
1
1 1 3 2 3 3 4
2 2
3
5
1

5 3 5

- 48 -


1 1 1 3 1 3 5 1 2 1 2 2
1 3
3 3
5 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 3 1 1
1 1
1 1
3 3 3 2 2 2
3 5 5 1 3 1 3 5 1 2 1 1 2
T1(7) = T1(8) = T1(9) =
3 5 1 1 6 1 1 3 1 2
1
3 1 2 1 1
5 1 1 6 3 3 2

1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 2
1 1
1
5 3 6 6 5 3 5 3 2 2 2

1 1 3 2 3 5
1 5
5
6 3 1 1
1 1 3
1 1
1
3
1 3 3
5 5 2 1
= 5

= 2
3 1 3 3
T1(10) 5 1 7 5 T1(11)
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 3
6 3 7 4 3 3
1 1 1 1 1 1
3 2 4 1 5 1
5 3 3 3

3. 11

1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 4
2 2 1 1
3 3 1
2 1 3 3 1 1 3
=
1 2
=
3 1 2
T (1)
= 1 T (2)
T (3)

2 1 3 1 2 1 5
2 2 2
3 1 1 2
3
1 1 1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1
1 1 2 2 4 3 5
3 3
1 1 1 1
1 1 1 3 1 1
1 3 3
2

3 5

3 5

3 5 3 4
1 1
=
3 1 1 3 1 1
T2(4) T2(5) = 3 T2(6) = 3
3 1 1 3
5 3 1 7 5 3 1 5
1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1
2 3 3 1 1 1
3 5 7 4 5

- 49 -


1 1 1
1 1 1 4 1 2 1 2
1 1 5 2 1
5 5
4 1 2
3
1 1 1
=
5
= 2
5 1 1
T2 (7)
T2 (8)
= 3 T2 (9)

5 1 1 5 1 1 1 2
5 3 1 4
1 1 1
1 1 1 1 1 1
1
5 5 2 1 2 2 2
3 4
1 1 1 1
1 5 5
3 1 3 3
1

=
5
=
5 1 1 3 1 1 3
T2 (10) T2 (11)
5 1 1 5 3 1 1 3

1 1 1
1 1 1 1
1
3 5 5 3 3

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