REPUBLIC OF THE PHILIPPINES

Department of Science and Technology

Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and
Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA)
Science Garden, Agham Road, Diliman, Quezon City 1100

EL NIÑO ADVISORY No. 7

Current atmospheric and oceanic indices are still consistent with the moderate El Niño occurring in the equatorial
Pacific. Forecast outputs of leading climate models likewise indicate the continuation of the warm event likely up
to June 2010.

Weather systems that affected the country during the month of February were the Northeast monsoon, the tail-
end of a cold front, ridge of High Pressure Area (HPA) and Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The Northeast
monsoon was generally weak during the month as shown by the below normal rainfall over the eastern portion
of the country. No tropical cyclone entered/developed in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). Irregular
occurrence of the east and southeasterly winds were observed during the second half of the month indicating an
early shift of the seasonal wind from the northeasterly winds to easterlies. This signals the start of the warm
months of the year which usually start in March and reach its peak in April or early May.

Rainfall for February was generally way below normal over most areas of the country which is a manifestation of
the impact of the current El Niño. The decline of water levels in major dams in the country significantly affected
the water resource for power and irrigation supply over the affected areas in Luzon. The main source of Metro
Manila’s domestic water supply has been threatened to reach the critical level if the ongoing dry condition
continue for the next three months. Likewise, the prevalence of the ridge of HPA over the country during the
period brought “warm weather” condition as above normal surface air temperatures were observed in most
areas. With this situation, agriculture and fisheries were adversely affected and may continue to threaten other
sectors including health if such condition continues to prevail in the coming months.

Rainfall conditions over the provinces of Isabela, Nueva Viscaya, and Quirino worsened from dry spell condition
during January to drought condition in February. Some areas of Capiz province continue to experience drought
condition. The number of provinces that are affected by the dry spell condition have increased and includes
Abra, Benguet, Kalinga, Ifugao, Apayao, Mountain Province, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan,
Cagayan, Bataan, Bulacan, Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Tarlac, Zambales, Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Rizal, Iloilo,
Antique, Guimaras, and Negros Occidental. These areas have already experienced rainfall deficiency for three
consecutive months.

Generally warm weather condition was experienced in the country for the month of February as shown by the
above normal air temperatures in most areas.

The weather systems which are likely to influence the climate for March are the tail-end of the cold front, ITCZ,
ridge of north Pacific HPA, and easterly waves. Slim chance of tropical cyclone occurrence is likely during March.
Below to way below normal rainfall condition in most parts of the country is expected during March with near
normal rainfall likely over the CARAGA region and some patches of northern Luzon. Thunderstorm activity is
likely during the month especially over Mindanao area.

Above normal temperatures will likely prevail in March over most areas of the country in response to the
expected continuation of the El Niño event.

PAGASA will continue to monitor the day-to-day weather conditions and the large-scale climatic patterns that will
affect the country, and will issue updates on the existing El Niño phenomenon. Meanwhile, all concerned
government agencies are advised to continue to take appropriate measures to mitigate the potential adverse
impacts of El Niño to various sectors of the society.

PRISCO D. NILO
Administrator

Issued: March 03, 2010

Climate Monitoring and Prediction Section
Website: http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cad
http://www.philonlie.com.ph/~cad
~ Rainfall Charts ~

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