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Nano / Microsatellite
Market Assessment
Developed by:
Published by:
2014+
SpaceWorks 2014 Projection reflects a significant increase in
the quantity of future nano/microsatellites needing a launch.
This years projection is 2-3 times higher than our 2013
projection in the later years (2017 2020), which is driven by
the emergence and continued growth of commercial players in
the 1-50 kg satellite market.
SpaceWorks has projected global launch demand in the nano/microsatellite market according to a
Gompertz logistic curve from 2014 to the year 2020
Note that SpaceWorks places no value judgment on whether developers will successfully meet
their announced launch date or not
The nano/microsatellite projection was developed from a combination of two data sets
Publicly announced nano/microsatellite projects and programs
Quantitative and qualitative adjustments to account for the expected sustainment of current projects and
programs (e.g. follow-on to EDSN, CubeSat Launch Initiative), as well as the continued emergence and
growth of numerous existing commercial companies
Projections indicate substantial growth in nano/microsatellite launches, with an estimated range of 410 to
543 nano/microsatellites (1-50 kg) that will need launches globally in 2020 (compared to 92 in 2013)
Picosatellite < 1 kg
This study limits the upper end of microsatellite
mass to 50 kg given the relative large amount Nanosatellite 1 10 kg
of satellite development activity in the 1-50 kg Scope of this study 1 50 kg
range by comparison to the 50-100 kg range.
Microsatellite 10 100 kg
600
380
300 344
(1-50 kg)
302
200
100
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2014
Calendar Year
The Full Market Potential dataset is a combination of publically announced launch intentions, market research, and qualitative/quantitative assessments to account for future activities and programs.
The SpaceWorks Projection dataset reflects SpaceWorks expert value judgment on the likely market outcome.
NASA CubeSat
2011-2017 NASA USA 1-12 24 115
Launch Initiative
Number of Satellites
400
(1-50 kg)
SeeMe Payloads 2016 DARPA USA 12 0 6
Commercial
Von Karman 300 (USA)
QB50 2015 Institute / Various 2 0 52
Various Other
University of
Programs,
HUMSAT 2013-2014 Various 1 0 9 75%
Vigo / Various 200
Other
(USA)
Existing large programs will comprise only 25% of future
100
nano/microsatellites (compared to 65% in 2013) due to Other
(Foreign)
worldwide growth in the civil and commercial sectors
* Assumes two NSF Geospace & Atmospheric CubeSat satellites selected in 2014. NASA CubeSat Launch Initiative total includes the sixteen 0
missions chosen in February 2014 (in response to August 2013 Announcement of Opportunity) and the timeframe listed is based on when the SpaceWorks Projection
already selected CubeSats are scheduled to launch. QB50 total includes two precursor satellites.
Please see End Notes 2, 3, 4, 6, and 7.
(2014 2016)
Civil
90%
Government
224
80% Commercial
Defense/Intelligence
70%
88
38
Number of Satellites
60%
50%
10%
10
3 22
0%
Historical SpaceWorks Projection
(2009 2013) (2014 2016)
The civil sector remains strong, contributing over one third of future nano/microsatellites,
but it will see reductions compared to 2009-2013 when the sector contributed 63%
* Please see End Notes 2, 6, 7, and 8.
20% SpaceWorks
Historical Projection
(2009 2013)
10%
(2014 - 2016)
9%
55%
Technology
17%
Technology
Communications
Percentage Contribution
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
1 kg 2 kg 3 kg 4 kg 5 kg 6 kg 7 kg 8 kg 9 kg 10 kg
Historical
(2009 2013)
3%
SpaceWorks
Projection 25%
(2014 2016)
1 kg 2 kg 3 kg 4 kg 5 kg 6 kg 7 kg 8 kg 9 kg 10 kg
25% of future nanosatellites (1-10 kg) are in the increasingly popular 6 kg mass class
(compared to only 3% from 2009 to 2013)
100
90 1 10 kg
11 50 kg
80
70
Significant growth
Number of Satellites
60 in the 1-10 kg
50 mass range
40
30
20
10
0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Calendar Year
According to the projection, 93 satellites (1-50 kg) Deep Space Industries Nano
were planning to launch in 2013
GeoOptics, Inc. Micro
92 satellites (1-50 kg) actually launched in 2013
ISIS Nano/Micro
Based on the announced launch data alone, 2014
Outernet (MDIF) Nano
will see a 52% increase in nano/microsatellites
NanoSatisfi Nano
launched compared to 2013
Commercial companies will contribute over one- Planet Labs Nano
This is a significant increase from 2013, where the SpaceQuest, Ltd. Micro
commercial sector contributed only 11% Earth Obs./ Data Asteroid Ship
The continued emergence and growth of commercial Remote Sensing Collection Exploration Tracking
companies (see table) will result in an even greater increase in 2015, with the sector contributing 60% of all nano/
microsatellites launched
Many companies have publicly revealed their near-term intentions regarding future launches of nano/
microsatellites and the satellites wide spectrum of revenue generating applications
Other companies have been more reserved, revealing only small details of their plans
Precise quantities aside, strong evidence suggests the commercial sector will
have a meaningful and enduring impact on the nano/microsatellite industry
* Please see End Notes 2, 4, 6, 7, and 10.
The civil sector remains strong, but the eruption of commercial companies and start-up activities will
continue to influence the nano/microsatellite market; future launches suggest this trend will continue
Projections based on both announced and anticipated plans of developers indicate 2,000 2,750 nano/
microsatellites will require a launch from 2014 through 2020
While 1U (1 kg) CubeSats are still widely used, 25% of future nanosatellites (1-10 kg) are in the increasingly
popular 6 kg mass class
Applications for nano/microsatellites are diversifying, with increased use in the future for Earth observation and
remote sensing missions