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Copyright 2013 CityMan Business Solutions Ltd
Just Start!
First published in Great Britain by CityMan Business Solutions, 2013
7 Ford Road, Sheffield, S11 7GZ, United Kingdom.
CityMan Business Solutions Ltd have asserted their rights to be identified as authors of
this work in accordance with the Copyright, Designs and Patents Act 1988.
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Table of Contents
ForeWord
1. Getting Your Head Right Before You Start The Psychology of Betting
2. Arbitrage An Easy Place To Start
3. Betting Systems Getting Them For Free
4. Betting Systems Designing And Testing Your Own
5. The Importance Of Portfolio Betting & How To Do It
6. And Finally - Perspective On Betting
7. Final Thoughts
1. FOREWORD - What this guides all about?
By Lucy Collins, October 2013
This manual is based on various articles produced for my website, www.laybackandgetrich.com, between its
inception in June 2011 and the present day (October 2013).
Many of the articles were popular at the time, but have since been lost somewhere in the bowels of the site (which
now runs to some 800 pages). However, it seems a pity for them to languish and be ignored, as clearly, when they
were first issued, they went down well.
Furthermore, on looking back, its apparent that there have been some common threads running through my site,
cropping up again and again.
So, by a process of careful article selection and grouping, Ive produced this manual hopefully to benefit many of
my more recent readers who never saw the originals, and also, to draw together these common threads into a
coherent story: a complete plan to help you just start betting, if you like.
Naturally, this does mean some of the themes are repeated from time to time, but this allows them to be explored
in several different ways, plus the process of repetition drives the points home forcefully.
There really are some important things you should know before you just start!
The articles are grouped into seven chapters as follows:
1. Getting Your Head Right Before You Start The Psychology of Betting
Before we dare place our first bet, we need to debunk a few myths, and look at common mistakes. Why not
learn from the errors of those who have gone before?
There are four articles in this section, trying to do just that:
Impostors and Gods The Things We Punters Have To Put Up With!

This System Is Too Good To Be True Or Is It?
Germany v Italy And The Psychology Of Backing Favourites
The Perils And Opportunities Of Fan Betting
2. Arbitrage An Easy Place To Start
Arbitrage is a low-risk way into sports betting, and therefore a good place for novices to begin. Four articles
recommend some key principles and sound a couple of important warnings.
Sports arbitrage made easy

Skewing arbs to make them more interesting
A simple daily trade
How to beat palpable error clauses
3. Betting Systems Getting Them For Free
Its unnecessary to spend a lot of money on betting systems: indeed, you can often get them for free. Heres
how:
A Free Football Betting System c/o The BBC Licence Fee Payer
Fancy A High Spec Trading Tool For Free? Well, Heres One
Why Buy Tips When Professional Tipsters Will Give You Them For Free?
A Cute Way To Get Winning Systems For Free
Fancy A Free Betting System?
4. Betting Systems Designing And Testing Your Own
Another option is to build your own system! Sounds impossible? Well actually, its not that hard after all
Taking The Bookies Apart By Using The Laws Of The Universe
Design Your Own Betting System For Free
How to test a betting system and why ROI isnt everything
Betting On The Horses An Introduction
7 questions to ask before you place another bet
Each Way Doubles
Zero Risk Business Opportunity -- 0.00 Investment from you, and lots of support from me
5. The Importance Of Portfolio Betting, And How To Do It
An idea that runs throughout my site is the importance of portfolio betting. I returned it over and over
again in the following articles:
Life In The Edinburgh Sunshine And How Online Betting Can Stop You Worrying
Six% With Lucy
Do You Pick Up Pennies From The Pavement?
City Boys & Hobos Similarities & Differences, and The Moral Of The Tale
5 Steps To Sports Betting Success
6. And Finally - Perspective On Betting
in short theres more to life! But how easily we forget!
The following three articles were reality check moments for me I hope you enjoy them too.
Sunshine, beach houses and perspective

Starfish, Shrimps & Online Betting Perspective v2.0
Winning & Losing & Loving Life The Great Horse Racing Secret Of Sir Clement Freud
7. Final Thoughts
This is one of my favourite posts on the whole site and I didnt write it. It really makes you think so please
read it! -
Guest Post Lessons From A REAL Professional Gambler.
Lucy Collins
www.laybackandgetrich.com
SECTION ONE
Getting Your Head Right Before You Start
The Psychology of Betting
Impostors And Gods The Things We Punters Have
To Put Up With
2012-09-10 13:09:21 Lucy
A famous line from Rudyard Kiplings poem If is written on the wall

by the players entrance to the Centre Court at Wimbledon
If you can meet with Triumph and Disaster and treat those two impostors
just the same
It is slightly curious, as quotes go, as it doesnt actually give you the punch line,
which, of course, only arrives with the very last line of the poem:
If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,

Or walk with Kingsnor lose the common touch,
If neither foes nor loving friends can hurt you,
If all men count with you, but none too much:
If you can fill the unforgiving minute
With sixty seconds worth of distance run,
Yours is the Earth and everything thats in it,
Andwhich is moreyoull be a Man, my son!
Personally, I have no desire to be a man, but I wouldnt mind the Earth and
everything thats in it, so perhaps its worth taking note. Because Triumph and
Disaster really can scramble a punters thinking.
Perhaps the Wimbledon line should be scrawled on the wall of every punters back
bedroom, immediately over the place where a laptop provides access to Betfair,
Bet365 and all the rest.
Because, dear reader, I dont know about you, but I find one of the most
difficult things to deal with is success.
You see, Im struggling a bit, for the bizarre reason that its been a brilliant
weekend.
Pretty much everything I touched just seemed to turn to gold.
Zerohype Banker levelled out after a wobble, then by Sunday returned

gloriously to form.
BetGreen delivered a very nice sequence of winning trades.
LayBet Dominator continues to fly along.
And I also made a fair bit of money from a combination of SkewTrader Pro
and another new technique I recently acquired in bizarre circumstances.
And OK, Joannes soccer tips traded sideways, but we are still massively in
profit, with, I suspect, a lot more to come. (And anyway, her confidence,
based on her own testing, just blows me away).
So in short, I have banked a lot of profits over the last couple of days. (I hope youre
pleased for me!)
But you know, when this happens, I almost want to get the next big loss out
of the way. For thats the way it goes, right?
There was a lovely, irrational comment left on my site to this effect from Nick on
Saturday. He was almost begging Joanne to make a couple of lousy selections, so
he would not be joining a trial that was on a glorious run.
For somehow we sense that if we do so, we will almost certainly be tempting

fate, and destined to become the Jonah who sinks the ship.
I don't fancy being the Jonah in the boat !
Of course, Nick meant his remark in a light-hearted way. But many a true word and
all that.
Contrast then the way I was feeling about ZeroHype Banker in my

previous weeks progress report, when wed just experienced a
sequence of nine straight losses.
All then seemed lost. (In spite of the fact that the month of August was still showing
a small profit at BSP).
As much as today Im back on top of the world, back then I felt buried beneath it.
That old impostor, Disaster, was encouraging me to chuck the towel in.
Just as today Triumph is telling me that Im on an unstoppable run.
So is it possible to stop this rollercoaster of emotions??
We know we need to treat both impostors just the same.. but how do we do
so?
First of all, we must realise that in a statistical sense, there really are
no sequences.
Sequences are just stories that we write in our minds.
But the runs arent really in the data. They are more of a construct that we overlay
upon the data as a type of post-rationalisation.
So how to make sense of our results?
The answer has to be by assessing performance over the very long-term, in

particular by objectively recording:
profit achieved
return on investment, and
strike rate.
And by just as systematically ignoring short sequences that mean absolutely

nothing of significance.
The fact is that sequences occur as an inherent feature of randomness, in

precisely the same way that buses bunch together.
So with this vital need for objective recording of data in mind, I continue to be
impressed by a free results spreadsheet I found on an Australian website.
So do take a look. It really is very nice.
I have mentioned it on my site once before, but have since received some
particularly favourable feedback from a number of readers about its use in practice.
It is extremely easy to use and invaluable as a way of objectively assessing (and

reassessing) your progress.
All that said, I still raised a glass to the Betting Gods last night, to
give thanks for a wonderful weekend.
Spreadsheet or no spreadsheet, youve gotta keep them smiling down, right?

Lucy xx
This System Is Just Too Good To Be True Or Is It? :)
2012-06-21 22:06:00 Lucy
When Frankie Valli sang about a new lady in his life appearing too good to be true..
what did he actually mean?
The questionable collar aside, Frankies lyric suggests to me a rather deep-seated

pessimism. Call it learned caution if you wish to sound wiser but I wish to argue
here that it can be shown to be quite irrational.
Just because a claim appears to be good doesnt make it any more true or false
than one that on the face of it would appear to be bad. It simply seems good
thats all we can say until we come to a decision about its validity or otherwise
based on systematic analysis of the thing claimed (for instance by objective testing
of the performance of the product or solution being assessed).
Okay, w hat does Frankie Vallis love life have to do

w ith betting?
His oft-repeated sentiment strikes me as a relevant topic when discussing the sale
or purchase of betting systems.
After all, a betting system is not purchased for its functional utility in the way that,
say, an item of furniture is, but is obtained solely for its ability to increase our net
worth.
We dont expect to obtain a specific return on our investment when we buy a new
sofa; we expect merely to be able to sit on it, whilst we enjoy a programme on TV.
But when we purchase a betting system, we must inevitably make, in our minds,
some sort of connection between the price we are prepared to pay for the system
up front, and the financial return we eventually expect to receive when we use it.
Which in turn begs the question, w hat is an adequate

return for a given outlay?
For instance, if you were offered a system for 5 that could fairly quickly turn 20
cash into 40, why wouldnt you buy it?
Even if you were never to use that system again, provided you had doubled your
20, and spent only a fiver in doing so, it would still have been a thoroughly rational
purchase. Indeed, what investor wouldnt choose to do such a thing over and over
again if it were possible?
And yet I would be surprised if many people reading this article, seeing an
opportunity to turn 20 into 40 for a 5 outlay, would actually follow up on it.
Moreover, proven betting systems claiming to deliver often far higher percentage
returns than this for a modest outlay are repeatedly passed over by punters.
Is it because they simply seem, like Frankies girl, too good to be true?
The more they claim, the less w e believe them?

A system like Total Football Trading for instance, or Mikes Bonus Bagging, claims
to deliver profits far in excess of their sticker price. So, speaking purely rationally, I
can see no reason why a sports investor would not decide to buy them.
.But I can hear you thinking already yes, but I dont know for certain that the
systems will work!
Which is true up to a point but both of the two systems Ive mentioned have been
extensively tested in the public domain, including by me on this website. They also
come with cast-iron refund policies backed by a huge corporation in Clickbank.com,
such that if, in the end, youre not happy with the returns you make, you can get your
money back anyway (provided of course you request your refund within a specified
period of time).
Now you may still object that you might lose money betting with a poor system
before you get round to requesting your refund, but this is a pretty weak argument,
as of course anyone can start off paper trading.
So w hy exactly dont w e take action?

Why this human propensity towards inaction, when solutions lie at our feet?
I propose that the answer to my conundrum is a combination of various cognitive

biases that lead us to decide that something is probably just too good to be true,
and were therefore better off letting things be.
I believe that these biases include, but are not necessarily limited to the following:
Belief bias a curious phenomenon where the way somebody evaluates a

given thesis is biased by the credibility of its conclusion. Thus the more
outlandish the claims, the more we reason they must be false but without
any logical basis. In short, we make some vague value judgement that it jus
kinda sorta sounds unbelievable.
Anchoring a tendency to rely too much on unrelated past events when
making assessments (System X looked really good, and that didnt work, so
System Y is most likely rubbish too). This is a suspiciously emotional
response with no basis in rational thought.
Availability cascade something Wikipedia calls a self-reinforcing process
in which a collective belief gains more and more plausibility through its
increasing repetition in public discourse. In other words, if enough people say
the same thing enough times for long enough, it will be deemed to be true. For
it is a brave man who questions any cultures sacred cows. I would argue that
the too good to be true mantra falls into this category of our cultures broadly
accepted so-called wisdom.
In contrast, the approach adopted by this website is to evaluate systems not based
on the credibility of their authors (or anyone elses) claims, but solely on objective
testing, and the feedback from other credible reviewers. If there is a robust refund
policy available, this should reassure us too, as it allows us more time to carry out
final tests at home.
I do accept that too much of the sales literature issued by the betting systems
industry is quite ridiculous, and treats its readers like cattle. But this fact should only
encourage us to be more rational and professional in our product assessments
instead of succumbing, as I fear many do, to lazy, and rather cynical, value
judgements like the one made by the elaborately-coiffured Mr. Valli.
And as a result, many miss out on the great opportunities that the sports
markets offer, at a time when most other financial markets look relentlessly
bleak.
Lucy xx
Germany v Italy and the psychology of the herd.
AKA backing favourites!
2012-06-28 18:06:24 Lucy
One of the things that fascinates me about sports betting markets

is how all the money is attracted as if by some mysterious force on
to the favourite.
Now you might say that by definition this is inevitable after all, this is why
the favourite is indeed the favourite! but I must clarify my
question. Specifically, why has so little money been placed, ahead of
tonights Euro 2012 semi-final, in the form of lay bets on an Italian
win, or indeed lay bets on the draw, whereas so much money has been
backed on Germany winning?
For surely, the two are really the same thing expressed in a
different way?
As I write (an hour before kick-off), over 6 million has been matched on the
Germany versus Italy match odds market. Of which about 80% has been
staked on Germany to win, 10% on Italy and 10% on the draw.
The unmatched monies are split in roughly the same proportion. Clearly
most of the interest is in the possibility of German victory.
As a result, the odds on Germany are moving painfully slowly this evening.
Which means the market isnt much fun if youre a trader.
If I were now to trade a German win, its very unlikely that I would be able
to secure more than one or two ticks of profit. Markets that are this liquid in
fact become, paradoxically, illiquid to traders. There is so much unmatched
money the prices never move, thereby restricting our ability to make a profit
(unless, I suppose, were prepared to stake absolutely enormous sums).
Now, as suggested above, an obvious solution to this problem is not to bet on

Germany at all, but rather to lay both Italy and the draw. The prices for
both these outcomes are moving much more freely, and my bets on them
would therefore be effectively leveraged to a greater degree.
Given that this is such an obvious strategy, why do so few people do it?
The only answer I can find is that people simply love backing favourites.
And they do so simply because other people do it.
There is something inherently more comfortable about backing a favourite to

win, than laying an outsider to lose. And I propose that it is something to do
with the herd instinct.
Are you prepared to fly solo?
I asked a good (non-punting) friend of mine this afternoon who he would bet
on if I gave him a free bet of 20 on the Germany versus Italy match.
Big surprise he said he would put it on Germany to win.
When I pointed out that Italy have never lost to Germany in a competitive
match, and indeed have a 100% success rate against them, with 7 wins out of
7, he was unmoved.
When I added that Italy come into this game having just performed superbly
against England in contrast to Germany who conceded twice to unfancied
Greece! his position did not change.
His main reason?
Germany are the favourites, and therefore the natural team to bet on. They
are the magnet for the gold in his pocket, as everyone else is doing it, and it
doesnt feel quite so foolish to be wrong when the whole herd is of the same
mind.
To contemplate a bet on Italy even a lay bet would be to

operate outside the herd.
And betting on favourites is all about joining the consensus.
My advice for tonights game?
1. If you want to trade a German win beforehand, do so via backs and lays
on Italy and the draw as you will get significantly more leverage for
your investment.
2. As to the match outcome, I have no fixed idea. But I have backed the
draw, as I expect it to remain tight in the first half, as above all, no one
wants to lose. Then I will aim to trade out by laying after 30 minutes
or so. Though if the match is surprisingly open, I may trade out before
this.
Enjoy the game.
Lucy x
The Perils and Opportunities Of Fan Betting. A
Cautionary Tale!
2012-06-20 13:06:52 Lucy
Major sporting events have a habit of producing a curious effect on fans.
Its something Ive noticed during various big summer championships, but it
is not just limited to them. You can sometimes also see it during the ordinary
football season.
Im referring to the concept of fan betting, when normally rational people

abandon their usual judgement and follow their allegiance when making
betting decisions With real money!
Fans Who Bet.
I have a couple of good male friends who are big supporters of Manchester
City. They very kindly recently invited me to the game City were playing at
the end of last season against Manchester United, which was a crucial match
with the potential to decide who would go on to win the Premier league title.
As it turned out, it triggered a significant swing in end of season fortunes,
with City of course going on to win the league, to my friends delight.
Well, Im sure you can imagine my friends were incredibly nervous before
the big match. But one of them, Steven, suddenly decided to pay dear old
William Hill a visit before the game in order to (somehow!) show his support.
Now I find it hard to imagine a more illogical way to demonstrate that you
are supporting your team than this.
After all, the fans and management of the club dont know youve placed that
bet. Its not like cheering them on from the stands is it?! How, pray tell, is
this misguided demonstration of ones allegiance actually supposed to work?
When I raised this point with my friend, he merely continued to remain both
vague and adamant that his was a valid way of expressing his support.
Indeed, he seemed to think that my approach to betting was somehow
clinical and inappropriate in the circumstances. We were watching the game
seated amongst the City fans, and in his view, it would therefore be almost
morally wrong to put a bet on the draw (which was the result I expected), or,
heaven forbid, on an United win.
Of course, all of his bets were placed on various outcomes that involved a
City victory. Worse still, he placed his bets in a small booth in the home fans
end of the stadium where William Hill were (unsurprisingly) offering truly
lousy prices. Their shabby little concession seemed permanently surrounded
by a small crowd in the run-up to kick-off, and, in my view, amounted to
little more than blatant exploitation of City fans desperate to show their
allegiance in the most misplaced way. I couldnt help wondering if there was
also another little desk in the away end offering prices to United fans that
were equally biased in the other direction.
And if all that wasnt bad enough, Steven then started betting against
himself. He placed a whole series of correct match score bets on different
potential outcomes, all of which of course involved a City victory. Well, City
did indeed go on to win, so he got that bit right, but he genuinely believed
hed won when the 1-0 scoreline which was one of half a dozen
predictions that hed made came up. In fact, I seem to remember that
overall he
finished dead level, with the winnings from the one nil result paying for all
the other losing bets. When I pointed out that the only thing hed actually
done was guarantee that most of his bets would lose, he simply couldnt see
the logic. But when you place mutually exclusive bets, all youre doing is
giving the bookie a massive edge, because all but one of them must go his
way.
This isnt intelligent betting, nor is it supporting your team. This is mug
punting.
So Why The Cautionary Tale?
I mention it today because I sense a resurgence of this phenomenon may be

in the offing this weekend. After a start to the 2012 European
Championships during which English hopes have been commendably
restrained, I feel we may now see an upsurge in patriotic fervour that bears
no resemblance to
the teams actual chances of going on to win the tournament.
My advice therefore is, if you support a particular team such as England,

keep your wallet in your pocket and simply enjoy the match. Betting is a
serious business well, it is if you actually want to succeed at it but your
judgement cannot possibly remain impartial when youre wearing a
particular teams colours.
And if you dont believe that hard-headed punters can be affected by their
lifelong allegiance, watch this display of misplaced bravado by Fred Done,
the founder of BetFred, and a lifelong Manchester United supporter
http://youtu.be/K2Q_c4vopsY
Exploiting Patriotic Bookies!
A further idea is to try to spot biases in the odds offered by patriotic bookies.
After all, any bookmakers prices are inevitably representative of the bets
that theyve taken from their own customers, so patriotic bias should not
surprise us. This indeed is how I was able to secure very attractive odds on
France in the game against Sweden yesterday, which led to a successful arb
worth 15 when Sweden went on to win.
For who was the bookie who gave me such a generous price? Nordicbet, a
Scandinavian outfit who unsurprisingly didnt give the French much hope
against the mighty Swedes!
So Im 15 up, and looking forward to seeing how England perform against

the Italians. But I can assure you, I wont be betting on an English victory.
Certainly not with an English bookmaker anyway!
Lx
SECTION TWO -
Arbitrage - An Easy Place To Start
Arb of the Week, w/c 28/5/2012 Sports Arbitrage
Made Easy :)
2012-06-03 17:06:46 Lucy
Recent Arb of the Week articles have discussed a whole range of advanced
techniques, such as handicap arbitrage, middles, and even inverted middles.
Ive also introduced my free arb alarm service, which comes with the worlds
longest explanatory legend, so you can decode all the opportunities it presents.
Im conscious however that I might thoroughly have confused everyone, and

given the impression that true sports arbitrage has to be complicated. It
doesnt. In general, the simpler arbs are, the better they are.
So its back to basics tonight! I have just placed a couple of simple win bets
to create a two-way arb on a womens doubles tennis match due to take place
later on this evening between Sanchez and Christian, and Muhammed and
Schnack.
Ive avoided a traditional balanced arb, where the reward is identical in all
events, and instead weighted the profit towards a win by the favourites,
Muhammed and Schnack. So it looks like this at BWin
Bwin bet on Muhammed & Schnack
and like this at Bet365
Bet365 bet on Christian and Sanchez
all of which means that a win for Muhammed and Schnack will leave me better off
to the tune of 8.75. Whereas a win for the pair on the other side of the net will
produce a neutral outcome.
So where did I find this tasty little arb?
Did I buy some expensive software to flag up a short-lived opportunity via an

annoying bong on my computer!?
Will I have to find an arb a day for the rest of the month solely to fund an expensive
service?
Nope. I simply went to Oddscheckers tennis coupon, and looked for matches
where the combined prices were offered at below 100%, implying you can buy all
possible versions of reality for less than the price of certainty!
You too can learn how to spot arbs like this, and work out smoothed stakes so the
bookies dont catch on, by downloading my free manual on making 1000 per
month from betting systems by clicking here now.
Ill let you know how the arb works out later on.
Lucy xx
How To Skew Free Bets And Make Arbitrage
Exciting!
2013-03-10 20:03:23 Lucy
It is common knowledge that a fairly easy way to make money from

betting is to use arbitrage techniques.
If you dont know much about this, then have a look through my Arb Of The Week
series of articles, which deals with arbs (or sure bets) in all their different
flavours, from straightforward bonus bagging, to sophisticated constructs such as
middles, inverted middles, and handicap arbs. (And incidentally, if you plan do a lot
of arb-ing, you should also note the guidance here regarding handling palpable
errors).
Yet the fact is, arbitrage still has an image problem. Mainly because it seems
deadly boring.
Well, in this article, Id like to bury this myth once and for all.
Because arbitrage can be very exciting indeed.
Take for instance last weeks Bet365 reload on the Champions League match
between Real Madrid and Manchester United.
Basically, Bet365 were giving away free 50 in-play bets. All you had to do to get
one was place a qualifying 50 bet pre-match (e.g. on the match result). Then,
once the match started, you could place your free bet on any in-play market.
The classic way to trade this opportunity would be to lay off your pre-match bet at
Betfair for a small loss, then lay off the free bet during the game (probably at half-
time so there were no problems with unexpected market suspensions) to lock-in the
same overall profit no matter what the outcome.
So, in order to qualify for my free bet, I placed a 50 qualifying bet on the draw at
Bet365, and layed off the same outcome, also for 50, at Betfair. This guaranteed a
loss on my pre-match bets of 2.50, irrespective of the result (assuming 5% Betfair
commission).
My 50 qualifying bet at Bet365
My matching lay at Betfair to balance off the qualifying bet at Bet365
But this is where it starts to get interesting.
I now had to find an in-play bet to back and lay in almost the same way, in order to
lock-in my risk-free profit. And what you will usually be told to do is find two similar
back and lay prices on an in-play market, then lay at Betfair for precisely whatever
amount guarantees a level return irrespective of the result.
Its easier to see how this works with an example..
I had chosen the Over 2.5 Goals market. At half-time, the game was goalless, so
Over 2.5 Goals had drifted to decimal odds of 4 at Bet365. At Betfair, it was longer
still, at 4.4 to lay.
To guarantee a level outcome therefore, I would need to place my free 50 bet at

Bet365 at 4, and lay at 4.4 at Betfair with a stake of 34.48.
The maths covering all four pre-match and in-play bets is as follows:
Bet365 Betfair
Possible Odds Stake Possible Loss
Odds Stake
Winnings
a)Obtain qualifying bet beforehand

Draw 3.75 50 137.50 3.8 50 140.00
If draw, lose 2.50

If not draw, lose 2.50
Qualifying bet wins you a free bet at Bet365 equal to 50
b) Use free bet in-play

Bet365 Betfair
Possible Odds Stake Possible Loss
Odds Stake
Winnings
Back > 2.5 Goals 4 50.00** 150.00 4.4 34.48 117.23
** to be
refunded
by
Bet365 if
bet lost
If > 2.5
Goals, win
30.27
If NOT >
2.5 Goals,
w in 30.26
Note that the winnings of 30.26 take account of the pre-match loss of 2.50. i.e.
we have made 30 no matter what.
All of which is very nice, but doesnt make watching the game
particularly interesting.
Plus anyway, I had a hunch that, once a goal went on, these two well-known
counter-attacking sides might produce more goals. So I decided to skew the
outcome towards the possibility of there being more than 2.5 Goals.
All I had to do to achieve this was place a slightly smaller stake at Betfair on my
second lay bet. (This technique is called under-laying and thanks, Ive heard all
the jokes about fitting carpets!).
Thus, instead of laying off for 34.48 (as shown above), I decided to lay for precisely
30 instead:
My second matching lay bet at Betfair, "under-layed" to favour the Over 2.5 Goals outcome
Now this might seem a very small change, but it had a marked effect on the
potential outcomes. For if the game now finished with > 2.5 Goals (as indeed it
did), I would now receive 45.50 i.e. 50% more than I would have banked with
a level outcome.
But if the game ended with fewer than 2.5 Goals, I would still have profited overall to
the tune of 26! Hardly a disaster.
In fact, with the skewed arb, the worst-case outcome was that I would have won
about 4 less than Id have received via the level-outcome approach. But the
potential upside made the game much more exciting!
The complete maths of the skewed arb is as follows.
Bet365 Betfair
Possible Possible
Odds Stake Odds Stake
Winnings Winnings
a)Obtain qualifying bet beforehand

Draw 3.75 50 137.50 3.8 50 140.00
If draw, lose 2.50

If not draw, lose 2.50
Qualifying bet wins you a free bet at Bet365 equal to 50
b) Use free bet in-play

Bet365 Betfair
Possible Possible
Odds Stake Odds Stake
Winnings Winnings
Back > 2.5 Goals 4 50.00** 150.00 4.4 30.00 102.00
** to be
refunded
by
Bet365 if
bet lost
If > 2.5
Goals, win 45.50
Otherwise
Win26.00
Now the match suddenly seemed a whole lot more interesting!
And you can imagine how smug I was feeling when Real Madrids second goal went
in.
Of course, I could have skewed even further. For instance, if I had placed just a
10 stake on the second lay bet at Betfair, Id have won 113.50! Without any
chance of losing money overall.
Not bad for boring, risk-free arbitrage!
And if you win over 100 on the next Bet365 in-play offer, please do let me know!
Lucy x
ps why not instantly download my free 30-page now FORTY-THREE
PAGE ebook on making 1000 per month from betting systems? The
methods are all low-risk and re-usable, so click here and get it now!
A Simple Daily Trade You Can Use For Steady Profits
:)
2013-05-31 14:05:40 Lucy
As soon as you introduce the subject of trading, a lot of punters get

worried.
It just sounds so complicated.
Isnt trading really just a strategy for high rollers, or perhaps sophisticated City types
who can understand and predict the vagaries of the market?
Well, of course, it helps if you have access to a huge bankroll, and vast cloud
computing resources running expert systems.
But really it neednt be that difficult. And I intend to prove it in this article.
Before I begin however, I must stress the obvious.
There are no certainties in the marketplace, and what Im going to

propose is NOT risk-free.
So if youre not comfortable with at least a degree of risk, please read no further.
However, what Id like to propose is
low-risk
likely to make you money in the long run; and
carries no transaction costs.
Better still, it contains a degree of insurance in the event things go wrong.
Interested?
Good.
This trading strategy exploits three features of the UKs daily horse
racing markets.
1. Betdaqs remarkable 0% commission offering on the first UK horse race of

the day in 2013
2. The Best Odds Guaranteed (BOG) promise made by many major
bookmakers. (And if you dont know what BOG is, please see my FAQ page)
3. The very small (often non-existent) gap in prices between the bookies and the
exchanges at the short end of the market.
Essentially, all we are aiming to do is trade short-priced steamers in

the UKs first race each day.
To do so, we back a promising horse at a BOG bookie, and lay it off at Betdaq, for a
risk-free punt on one of the favourites.
Take todays opening race as an example. It was the 1.25 at Market Rasen, and,
half an hour before the off, the prices at Oddschecker.com looked like this.
Oddschecker prices for the 1.25 race @ Market Rasen on 31st May 2013
Our interest is limited to the two or three shortest-priced horses. If any of them can
be backed at a BOG bookmaker at at least the same price for which it can be
layed at Betdaq, it is a possible selection.
This happens a lot more often than you might expect. Very often, bookie prices at
the short end of the book represent excellent value. The much-vaunted pricing
benefits of the exchanges are much more noticeable on longshots.
So In todays race, Oyster Shell could both be backed at Paddy Power, and layed
at Betdaq, at 2.1, so it passed our test.
You can tell whether a bookie offers BOG pricing from the presence of a green tick
immediately above its name on the Oddschecker screen.
(Yes..
it's a
BOG bookie!)
The second step is to check the price/volume graph for our
selection.
Now this is a more of a judgement call, but essentially Im looking for a steep decline
in the horses price in the run-up to the race.
Once again, Oyster Shell passed this test. If we look at the Betfair graph (sorry,old
habits die hard!) for our horse, you can see that the price trend has been steadily
down for some time. This is a very strong trend.
Oyster Shell's price/volume graph
Now I dont propose to write a thesis about trend following, but instead would
encourage you to go with your gut. If youre not convinced that your selection
is trending downwards, dont trade!
If however, youd like more information on trend following, the following video is a
good introduction. It talks about stock trading, but the principles are just the same.
http://youtu.be/bPHD7oMz3hE
OK, so we have decided that Oyster Shell is trending downwards. All we do now is
back him at our BOG bookie, and lay him for precisely the same stake at
Betdaq.
We dont have to worry about over-laying to cover commission, as none applies.
But what price should we lay him at?
I select odds of 90% of the back price. Which is calculated as follows:
LAY PRICE = ( ( (Current back price MINUS 1) * 90% ) PLUS 1).
Thus, in the case of Oyster Shell, the target lay price = 1.99 = (((2.1 -1) * 90%) + 1).
I have put together a simple spreadsheet here to work out the lay price for
you.
Finally, I set the Keep In-Running option on my lay bet, to ensure that my lay bet
will not be cancelled by Betdaq if it hasnt been matched before the off. In most
cases, my lay bets get matched before the race, but if not, they will now almost
certainly be matched in-running.
Set The "Keep In-Running" option when you place your

lay bet
(continued overleaf.)
It is of course possible that your lay bet may not be matched in-play, in which case
you may lose the entire value of your back bet. However this is very unlikely.
Favourites trade freely in-play, and a 10% reduction in price will usually be quickly
lost in the noise of in-play punting.
However, if the possibility of a total loss bothers you too much, you are trading outside
your comfort zone and must reduce your stakes.
And thats it!

A simple strategy for trading favourites on one UK race each day.
And the insurance I mentioned?
Well if we are unlucky with our trend, with the favourite suddenly beginning to drift
not steam, our BOG bookie is likely to allow his price to drift too, thereby covering
our increased exposure.
You even get days where the back price drifts; the lay bet matches in-play; and your
horse wins and pays out far more than originally expected, owing to the widened gap
between the two sides of the trade!
So how did it go today?
Oyster Shell traded in-play well below 1.99 (and was matched as low as 1.26 on
Betfair), so my lay bet got matched for the same stake as my back bet.
Unfortunately, he could only finish third, which produced a neutral outcome. i.e. I
won the same amount at Betdaq as I lost at my bookmaker.
Lucy x

Sports Arbitrage And How To Beat Palpable Error
Clauses!
2012-06-13 10:06:39 Lucy
An almost inevitable event along the road to learning about sports arbitrage is the
unhappy discovery of bookmakers palpable error clauses. These basically allow
bookies to revoke a winning bet after the event has finished, on the grounds that
the generous odds they had offered were palpably wrong e.g. they were the
product of a glaring transcription error, and could not reasonably have been deemed
credible.
I am not an authority on UK trading standards legislation, but the bookies position

here has always seemed to me to be dubious at best. There clearly is something
fishy about a bet being struck, and revoked afterwards by the loser. After all, wed
all like to be able to do that, particularly when the bookies have offered prices that
were palpably lousy!
The usual advice given to arbers is to avoid opportunities that appear too good to be
true. Thus I tend to pass up on any arb worth more than 7%. though I recognise
this is a rough and ready rule that feels slightly unsatisfactory.
I therefore would like to offer an alternative strategy today which is to ask your
friendly bookmaker to confirm the odds in question in writing before the event.
For, as the following email chain illustrates, this does appear to provide some
protection in the event of a subsequent challenge.
To illustrate my point, may I introduce you to a reader called Andy? Andy wrote to
me initially on the 21st May 2012 as below. Obviously I have removed his email
address, but have his agreement to publish our correspondence, as we both felt
other punters may benefit. (This is quite a long post, but please bear with me as
there are some valuable lessons for arbers everywhere!).
On 21 May 2012 23:22, <andy> wrote:
Hi Lucy
Thanks for the pdf, its a great read, Im still working my way through it at
the moment.
However Im on with the section about arbing and

using bestbetting.com. So I thought Id have a little look on tonight and
see whats what. Anyway this one particular match has flashed up with a
64.1% round figure, which seems a bit too good to be true.
http://odds.bestbetting.com/tennis/internationaux-de-strasbourg/round-
1/erakovic,-m-v-morita,-a/match-result/
Would you mind taking a look to see if you think thats okay or is
there a catch with the ladbrokes offer of 2.75 for Morita to win.
*** edit ***
Just as I was finishing this email, ladbrokes have removed their odds
on this match, but I did place my bet beforehand. Would you know if
they will they still stand on this bet or will they void it. Apologies, but
pretty new to this in fairness.
( Ive attached a screenshot of bestbetting before the offer was removed

)
Thank you for your help
Andy
Ladbrokes' "Too Good to be True" Arb
I replied as follows (being quite generous, I now think, to our friends the
bookies!) -
From: Lucy Collins <lucylastik@laybackandgetrich.com>

To: <andy>
Sent: Monday, 21 May 2012, 23:31
Subject: Re: Arbing whats the catch here or is there not ?
Andy
Thanks for your email and kind remarks.
Complete outliers such as this are usually bookie errors.. and, you will probably be
unsurprised to learn, are covered by a clause in the bookies small print called
palpable errors.
Palpable error clauses allow bookies not to pay out on outlying prices (and also
transcription errors) as they are deemed to be self-evidently erroneous. To be fair
to your average bookie, their sites nowadays contain thousands of prices, many of
which are moving in realtime. It would probably be unrealistic to expect them to
have to stand behind every price.
Your stake should be refunded but I would be astonished if the bet in question is
paid.
kind regards Lucy
Andy then replied to explain that he hadnt laid off the Ladbrokes bet to
complete an arb yet, and wasnt sure what to do. I therefore advised as
follows:
From: Lucy Collins <lucylastik@laybackandgetrich.com>

To: <andy>

Might be worth a call to Ladbrokes to ask them if they plan to honour the bet. If they
dont, your stake should be returned so no harm done. The least they can do is tell
you!
Let me know how you get on x
And then followed Andys decisive move
-
From: <andy>
To: Lucy Collins <lucylastik@laybackandgetrich.com>

Hi Lucy
Thanks for the help last night, just a little update as to whats happened today.
I emailed customer services last night and received a reply this morning confirming
that my bet will stand and be settled at odds of 7/4. So on receiving this email I layed
at Betfair to lock in my profit.
They then sent another email an hour later saying there had been a price error and
that I would only get settled on odds of 2/7 or they could make that bet void.
However I never read that email as I was at work, presuming since Id had
confirmation off them that they would stand on, then there was no reason to keep
checking my emails.
I only realised all of this once my bet with ladbrokes had won and I went to check the
balance.
So, obviously unhappy at having confirmation in writing then suddenly changing this,
Ive spoken to customer services 3 times who say they cant do anything about it as
they can change prices as they wish ( even though its in writing ), theyve now
passed me onto IBAS.
Thanks for your help again.
Andy
I then replied (hope youre still with this!) to explain that I thought taking the
matter to IBAS (the Independent Betting Adjudication Service) was worth a
try: though, based on my own personal experience of them, I privately didnt
hold out much hope. Andy then replied as follows.
From: <andy>

Hi Lucy
Thanks for your quick reply and advice, its very much appreciated.
The gentleman at Customer services offered me a 10 free bet if I didnt take it up
with IBAS, but would withdraw the offer if I was to take it further.
So instead of getting 87.50 profit, Im now left with 14 profit and I refused the 10
free bet.
It has dented my confidence with bookmakers, as they said they have the right to
change prices at any time ( even though I have it in writing !! )
Thanks for the heads up on IBAS, I thought it would be worth taking that option
rather than the 10 free bet.
I will keep reading your techniques, as I find them great.
Thanks again
Andy
I did start to feel at this point that maybe Andy had a chance at IBAS After
all, Ladbrokes were clearly trying to buy him off! Various other emails
followed, until finally, a couple of days ago victory!
From: <andy>
Sent: Monday, 11 June 2012, 21:34

Hi Lucy
Just wanted to update you on the progress of my claim with Ladbrokes through
IBAS.
IBAS have confirmed that Ladbrokes will pay out in full. and they have now
credited my account with the difference that I was due.
Thank you very much for your help, as if you hadnt advised me in the first place
then I would never have had it in writing from Ladbrokes.
Thank you, its very much appreciated and keep up the great work on the website,
its excellent !!
Cheers
Andy
Its quite a little saga, I think youll agree!
The morals would appear to be:
If youre worried that a bookie may dispute a price, get your bet on,
then write to their Customer Services department to confirm the price
will be honoured, before you lay it off.
If written confirmation is forthcoming, and the bet is then revoked after

the event, take up the matter with IBAS.
Dont let the bookie buy you off in these circumstances!
Dont give up!
My thanks to Andy for agreeing to share this. its a salutary tale for arbers, and a
moral victory for punters everywhere!
Lucy xx
PS Fancy moving to a whole new level in sports trading? SkewTrader Pro is

back for a limited period only click here to get it!
SECTION THREE -
Betting Systems Getting Them For Free
Free Football Betting System Care Of The BBC
Licence Fee Payer!
2013-05-23 16:05:05 Lucy
I sense, but cannot prove, that betting is increasingly becoming socially

acceptable, and moving more into the media mainstream. Which is a social
phenomenon that occasionally has some curious side-effects.
A good example is a current BBC sport website article, that, in all but
name, deals with the question of football betting systems.
Auntie! Whod have thought?
Mark Lawrenson + moustache!
Of course, the subject is presented in an acceptable framework. The article is

ostensibly a discussion of Mark Lawrensons performance as BBCs football pundit
over the course of the recently concluded Premier league season.
According to the Beeb, Marks predictions over the year would have made you a
profit of 18 points if you had bet on all of them. The same article also goes on to
explain how much better you would have done by following him than, say, slavishly
betting on favourites.
So it turns out we have all been buying betting systems after all. And a simpler one
there never was. Follow the licence fee payers own pundit and win.
Deep down, we all knew the licence fee was worth it. And now it can
even pay for itself!
However, a closer reading of Marks performance does suggest an alternative, more

profitable approach than merely copying him. For it turns out that Mark clearly
subscribes to the idea that the modern game is dominated by a few
superpowers.
No fewer than six of the breakaway top seven teams all amassed a lot more points
in his version of the final table than in the real thing. Only Spurs did better than Mark
predicted (which may also suggest he believes their seat at the top table could be a
little more temporary than applies in the other six cases).
Taking the top seven in turn, the comparison between Lawrensons League and the
Premier League looks like this.
Manchester United LL 96 points; PL 89 points

Manchester City LL 86 points; 78 points
Arsenal LL 91(!) points; PL 73 points
Chelsea LL 79 points; PL 75 points
Everton LL 73 points; 63 points
Liverpool LL 68 points; PL 61 points
Tottenham LL 60 points; PL 72 points
So what?, you may be thinking, he just lumps his money on the favourite. What else
is new?
But the point is, hes still 18 points up, in spite of an unjustified bias in his approach.
Now, given that Marks predictions tend to be fairly mainstream (United to win every
time etc.), and likely therefore both to reflect and lead opinion, maybe whenever he
predicts one of the big seven will win, a good strategy would be to lay them.
If you assume the average Saturday punter is likely to align themselves with the
voice of the BBC, the real value may be in a contrarian strategy of this type.
And, for those of you who are weary of the anodyne analysis that passes for punditry
on the BBCs Match of the Day show, there would also be something quite satisfying
about the act of writing to Mark at the end of the season to let him know how much
money youd made by disagreeing with every single thing hed ever said.
So Im going to do it right here.
Each week in the 2013-14 season, I will lay all the big 7 Premier League teams
whenever Mark backs them to win. And Ill track my results through till May.
Additionally, with a separate betting bank, I will back every tip Mark supplies that
doesnt fall into the Superpower Lay strategy. So hopefully, I will also benefit from his
demonstrated out-performance across the whole league.
Depending on my success or otherwise, I hope to have a robust system I can
then use with larger stakes from 2014 onwards.
Let me know if you decide to join in with either or both approaches. It should be fun,
and, quite possibly, very profitable.
Lucy
Fancy A High-Spec Trading Tool For Free? Well
Heres One
2013-03-28 18:03:55 Lucy
Would you like a high-spec tool with which to trade the exchange at
Betfair, without the licence fees invariably demanded for products
like BetAngel and Geeks Toy?
Well then, its time to look at the remarkable Advanced Cymatic Trader
product.
The download page describes the Cymatic product as unique betting and trading
software for Betfair, enabling the fastest possible bet placement and management.
And from what I can tell, this is not an unjustified description.
Advanced Cymatic Trader for Betfair
I have been playing around with Cymatic for a couple of hours, and I have to say, it
looks the bargain of all time. It does pretty much everything I would want from a
trading platform, and is currently free, with (according to the download page) no
catches or restrictions.
The download page also explains that the product is an official Betfair API solution
that has been fully security tested. Im not entirely sure what that actually means
how would you prove to me that you have security tested your product, such that I
can use my credit card with it? but the whole thing does come across as
extraordinarily professional. If this is a scam, someone has gone to an
extraordinary amount of trouble
Cymatic contains a ladder interface and charting for traders, including a whole range
of financial indicators, so will appeal to anyone at home with candlesticks, Bollinger
bands and all the rest.
You can get a flavour for it here..
http://youtu.be/u3zk-JaXKGg
Cymatic contains a whole range of other tools too numerous to mention. Im not too
sure about the automated trading bot just yet, but features like Tick Offsetting and
Position In Queue are absolutely invaluable for traders. If you currently use the
standard Betfair interface, prepare for a brand new world.
I cant strictly recommend this product as I still know relatively little about it. And yet I find
myself almost intoxicated by its ease of use, and the extraordinary generosity of its creator,
Gavin, who is listed as both director and founder of Cymatic Ltd.
I have written to Gavin with some fairly basic questions about his product such as
why?! and will update you with his responses.
In the meantime, do have a look at Cymatic for yourself! Its remarkable.
Lucy x
ps Later Update Gavins reply
Gavin responded to my queries as follows.
I cant promise that the software will be free forever, but I dont have any plans to
change the pricing anytime soon. Even if I do try to make money from it in the
future (and I havent decided really), then perhaps there will be a free and a premium
version, or maybe just one version with a small fee.
Whatever the outcome in the long run, I really just want people to enjoy using it and
be happy that it is free for the foreseeable future. There are no tricks or false
promises.
Gavin has also reassured me with respect to security. He writes, Users do not
give credit card details or Betfair usernames to Cymatic. Here are some links that
you can check out, regarding trusting Cymatic software:
1) Cymatic software has been tested and approved by Betfair:
http://www.cymatic.co.uk/FAQ.aspx#certification
2) The Betfair approval has entitled Cymatic to be listed in the Betfair Solutions
Directory:
http://solutions.betfair.com/index.php?option=com_mtree&
task=viewlink&link_id=123&Itemid=5
3) Cymatics website has been scanned and tested by Norton/Symantec:
http://safeweb.norton.com/report/showurl=cymatic.co.uk
4) Cymatic has also been approved by the Comodo Certification Authority: When
you download the software, you will probably also notice that the software has been
digitally signed using a Comodo code signing certificate.
Lx
Why Buy Tips When Professional Tipsters Will Give
You Them For Free?
2013-03-07 23:03:50 Lucy
An intriguing recent development is that the online tipping world has

become so competitive that professional tipsters will actually give
you their tips.
Eh? I hear you ask, why would they do a thing like that?.
Indeed.
Well, the logic seems to be to try to upsell you to the premium stuff, which is of
course only available on a subscription basis.
However, there is no reason whatsoever why you shouldnt just subscribe to

a series of these free services, and thereby gain access to a broad spectrum
of professional advice, free, gratis and for nothing.
The three that particularly stand out to me are
Midas Method
Bets For Today Newsletter
Betfan Newsletter
Lets look at each one in turn.
1. Midas
The Midas Method was thoroughly tested on my site over an 18 week period by
BetGreen Ryan, and awarded a Pass. This doesnt happen often; in fact, passes
had started to border on total non-existence by the time Ryan passed The Midas
Method. So I was quite relieved when he did so!
You can read the trial conclusion here; but the point at issue here is: there is a
version of the Midas Method service you can get hold of for free.
To do so, you still have to go to the Midas Method sales page (which, it has to be
said, is about as hard a sell as youre ever likely to come across, even though it now
features a screen shot of the passmark from my site!), then scroll down until you
see this little red pop-up :
Midas Method Tips - Free!
In return for your email address, you will receive an email every Saturday containing
the same Midas tips that paying subscribers receive. The only difference being that
they also receive selections throughout the week.
Although the tipster service isnt the only thing that Midas is about, its the part of the
product that Ryan rated most highly. So their offer of completely free Saturday
selections seems to me to be a very attractive one.
2. Bets For Today Newsletter (formerly OSBM)
Before I got my hands on it, Favourite Lays was one of the most highly regarded
services around! And indeed, it would be wrong to write it off forever, just because
its struggled to perform in my trial over the winter. On the contrary, I still believe
Philip Wright is a talented tipster, who will probably get it right in the long run. Hes
also been brave enough to come on my site and explain what hes been trying to do
to get back on track.
Favourite Lays comes from the Bets For Today stable, which also includes First
Place Winners (which I have just started trialling here), and another service thats
been around a long time called Diamond Lays. Again, I am not recommending any
of these products, but simply pointing out that at least two have them have been in
existence for some considerable time, and probably wouldnt have lasted this long if
they didnt have something going for them.
What I am however suggesting is that you may wish to sign up for Bets For
Todays completely free daily newsletter, and thereby get your hands on the
free tips they provide. Theres a very interesting trial taking place on the
newsletter at the moment of a product called Goalathon, and, as all tips have been
sent out prior to the games, subscribers have been able to track performance for
themselves. The tipster has been running the Goalathon trial for around 40 days
and, last time I checked, was about 10 points up.
Unfortunately, you do have to sit through some really stomach-churning, cheesy

music before you can sign up. :-(
3. Betfan Newsletter
Last, but very definitely not least, there is the free Betfan Newsletter.
Betfan is home to a whole range of tipster services, including the extremely

appealing Match Day Profits, which Ive just started testing here.
Once again, all you do is supply an email address where they can reach you, then
receive free tips every single day of the week. You also get to read some
interesting articles from professional tipsters. All for no money at all.
So whats the catch?
Gosh, theres no need to be cynical now! (Honestly, youd think the betting game
was full of sharks and crooks!).
The answer is: all three newsletters will try and upsell you to their paid-for services.
You cant blame them: theyre just doing their job! But equally, they cant make you
upgrade!
You can just take the free stuff for as long as you like, and not pay a penny.
There is no downside I can see.
Lucy x
Is this a cute way to get winning betting systems for
free? :)
2012-08-21 15:08:37 Lucy
Had a phone call from a guy who works for a very well-known betting exchange. You
will have heard of it.
Wanted to check everything was okay. Was I happy with the service I was getting?
Was there anything they could do better?
Well of course, I made a few jokes. Like please could I have the winner for the 3.45
at Musselburgh? And he laughed right along.
And it just seemed to set the tone.
It wasnt like a normal service call with your bank or your utility company. Altogether
much chattier.
I almost popped the kettle on.
So I thought Id ask my cockney friend what life was like at the exchange. Are the
staff all mad punters?
Indeed, are they allowed to trade at all?
Turns out a lot of them do bet, though there are quite a few restrictions. They also
run competitions, and one of the IT guys had recently won a quarter share in a race
horse.
Lucky him, methinks, dreaming of my chestnut mare..
One day girl, one day
And then I thought of all those cheesy systems adverts where an ex-industry guru
spills everything they know to the punters.
Maybe this was my big chance!
Deep breath
So do you have any great trading strategies of your own at all?
I honestly expected an anodyne response.

Something along the lines of it being inappropriate for them to show partiality and
give betting advice to punters.
All to do with corporate governance and whatnot.
Not a word of it!
He was more than happy to chat about his favourite approaches to betting!
Better still, he shared one strategy that he said he had gleaned from a previous
service call.
Said he had been using it for a little while, and was quite impressed.
Its only a week ago, but it seems ages since we spoke.
And of course Ive been running the new strategy almost every day. And it does look
pretty good so far!
Of course, its early days. But its so simple, and of course an exchange-only
system.
So the next time you get a call from your friendly betting exchange customer
service representative, try keeping him on the line.
Ask him about what its like to work there. Let him ramble on!
You never know what might come out of it!
Lucy x
(ps And yes I will let you know how the testing goes..)
Fancy A Free Betting System?
2012-08-15 20:08:32 Lucy
I am often approached by betting systems providers who ask me to run a public trial
of theirproduct, in order to promote sales.
Now this sort of confidence always impresses me, and frankly, as its almost always
free, it would be rude not to.
Thing is, there are only so many hours in a day, and I cant actually test them all
myself (much as Id like to!).
As an aside, you really wouldnt believe how much email I get and I promise, I try to
answer every single one within 24 hours.
So here is your opportunity. If youd like a free betting system, and are prepared
to trial it on my site whilst you learn, nows your big chance!
You might even achieve internet fame whilst youre at it!
Could a free system

bring you a bright new
dawn?
And of course, I will be here to help you with both the trial and the mysteries of
writing a WordPress post.
Its fun, honest!
Plus you may well make a whole pile of money whilst youre at it.
If you dont believe me, just look at how much I made from the ZeroHype Banker
trial!
And right here, right now I have the latest system from Winningmore, hot off the
press, all ready and waiting for a new triallist.
These are the people who brought you All By The Book 2 and Michaels Place Lay
Formula.
So how about it??
Its easy to get involved just drop me a line at lucylastik@laybackandgetrich.com.
Who knows where itll take you??
love Lucy x
SECTION FOUR -
Betting Systems Designing & Testing
Your Own
Taking The Bookies Apart By Using The Laws Of The
Universe
2013-04-12 17:04:55 Lucy
So here I am in beautiful, bankrupt Cyprus.
Reading by the pool, reading on the balcony, wondering why the telly in my
place will only show dodgy Middle Eastern channels, then reading some
more.
And my partner is reading too.
The Fabric Of The Cosmos by Brian Greene. All quantum physics, and
spacetime as a loaf of bread.
He keeps telling me all these weird anecdotes, and Im left wondering if the Big Bang
is really any more credible than the creation myths of the Church Of The Flying
Spaghetti Monster.
Everything was squashed into a point of nothingth width and nothingth

length.
Honestly!
But and there is a point here, waiting to emerge! he did say one thing that
fascinated me.
Although quantum physics is notoriously probabilistic, it turns out that classical

physics which is the physics that dictates how big stuff like planets and you and I
and horse racing work doesnt really do probability at all. Apparently, probability in
classical physics is really just a lack of information.
What is probability anyway?
Meaning: its theoretically possible to predict the outcome of the 3.30 at

Musselburgh provided you have an immense amount of knowledge about the
environment of the race track, the jockeys, the horses, the weather, the air
pressure, humidity, and so on ad nauseam, down to subatomic level.
Oh, and a huge computer.
But the point is: if you knew all this stuff, you would, in theory, be able to predict the
winner with 100% accuracy.
I repeat. In essence, probability arises in the real world merely from

a lack of information.
Which does indeed suggest a way into the world of betting.
After all, how many events do bookies quote prices for these days?
A huge number.
And how many markets do they price on a given event?
Well, Ive just checked Oddschecker.com and it says there are 308 markets on
Sundays match between Chelsea and Manchester City.
308 markets. On one game.
Think about this for a moment.

I never thought it before but it must be a nightmare being a bookie.
After all, contrary to widely held popular opinion, theyre only human.
How can they realistically price all these events?
So I find myself wondering: why not specialise? To the nth degree.
Why not pick a subject or sub-subject you find uniquely interesting and learn
everything there is to know about it.
Information, thats the thing.
How about researching all the players in the Indian Premier League of cricket? (Or,
for that matter the Bangladeshi Premier League!?). Find out whether the Chennai
Super Kings have dropped their top strike bowler for a match theyre expected to win
against the Pune Warriors?
Or even more bizarrely: how about Under 18 Gaelic Football?
Personally I think Carlow U18s have no chance against Wicklow this

weekend but with your specialist knowledge, perhaps you know better? :-)
Or (a particular favourite of mine, as used in my Lay Lucy Lay thread) why not try
laying in maiden races?
By definition, there is a tiny amount of performance data for bookies or anyone

else to go on with these races, so pricing is definitely more questionable.
Punters seize on one half-decent performance by an otherwise unproven runner

and its price shortens beyond what is credible: especially when you happen to know
that the complete novice it is up against has been put up by a stable thats going
really well right now.
Another approach would be to concentrate on micro-markets within

mainstream sports.
The Total Shirt Numbers markets have always fascinated me. Does anyone
really bet on this?!
But maybe guessing the team selection isnt so unrealistic if youve read all the
fitness information coming out of the top clubs, and therefore have a fair idea of who
may actually start the game.
And do you seriously think the bookies use anything more than average statistical
guesses on markets like this?
No chance.
They follow the 80:20 rule (otherwise known as the Pareto Principle) just
like every other business.
In short, they worry about where the moneys going, and focus on mainstream
markets.
The bookies have to offer odds on just about every sporting event going.
But you dont.
You can specialise in the narrowest of niches. And then take the bookies
apart.
Lucy
How To Design Your Very Own Betting System For
Free!
2013-09-24 20:09:01 Lucy
Can you design a winning

system?
It is extraordinary to me how many commercial betting systems are

available today.
I regularly get emails from readers asking whether Ive tested Proven Money Maker
X, or Super Hot Arbitrage System Y. And invariably Ive never even heard of them.
All of which tends to produce in me an initial degree of scepticism, however open-

minded I do try to remain. Its just too darned easy to run up a website and start
selling systems!
So what precisely IS a betting system?
I will argue till my face is blue that the most famous system of them all, Martingale,
isnt really a betting system at all. For, in my opinion, a system should contain two
things as a minimum:
an edge (the reason why the system is expected to work in the first place)
a staking plan (which should ideally avoid aggressive loss recovery, and seek
instead to manage your betting bank as efficiently as possible)
Martingale is really only a staking plan and a particularly cavalier one at that. It is,
thus, by my definition at least, only half a system.
Coming up with an edge

There is a temptation to think that a system must be based on some searing insight.
And of course, if you have one, it helps!
But in fact, a more likely avenue is simply specialisation.
I know it probably feels an odd experience, but consider, just for a moment, having a
bit of sympathy for your local bookie.
Because todays sporting events come littered with markets - and there are limits to
the amount of research any of them can do to get their pricing right.
Lets take a random football match.
Tonight, in Italys Serie B, Juve Stabia take on Lanciano.
Now this isnt a fixture to set my pulse racing, but, amazingly, Oddschecker lists no
fewer than 184 different markets on this one game!
Seriously, how much money can the bookies realistically expect to take on the
following markets on this second-tier league match?
Will there be a goal in the first 15 minutes?

Team To Score Third Goal (!)
Highest Scoring Half For The Home Team
Over/Under 0.5 Goals In The First Half
My guess is that some of these markets may not be bet on at all!
Or, if they are, we can be confident the turnover will be tiny in comparison to the
mainstream opportunities (Match Odds, Correct Score).
What would you do as a bookmaker faced with such a mountain of markets?
Inevitably, you would come up with generic prices for the minor ones and focus
instead on the high value stuff.
And of course, for generic, we can read poorly researched
There are so many free statistics sites available today that you can easily analyse
minor markets more thoroughly than the bookies do.
Two of my favourites are soccerstats.com and the truly

encyclopaedic http://fussball.wettpoint.com/en/ but there are others.
Reviewing these two sites, I notice that Juve Stabia are averaging 3.2 goals per
game (scored and conceded), and that their two home games have produced plenty
of first half goals (two in the first game and three in the second).
Lanciano have been involved in rather less eventful matches, but for the sake of
this example I shall define my system in terms of the performance of the home
side, on the (arguable) assumption that it is the home teams approach to a game
that dictates its general shape.
Betvictors price of 1.47 for there being at least one first half goal is the most
generous available on the market, so to make things interesting I have had 2 on
that particular outcome.
My system rules are therefore:
average number of goals per game for the home team (scored and
conceded) >= 3, and
average number of first half goals per game for the home team (again, scored
and conceded) >= 1.5.
I am looking only at current season data (so if this were a slightly more serious
example, I might prefer to add a third rule stipulating the minimum number of games
that should have already elapsed in the season).
And essentially, I will now trial my new system for 100 bets.
If Im in profit at this point, I will push on to 200 (and if not, I will probably abandon the
whole thing, and test another theory).
At 200 bets, I will assess my results, and if Im still convinced I have a decent return,
I may just have a system on my hands.
Otherwise I may tweak my rules and try again.
Only when Im happy with my results will I think about staking.
I have an instinctive preference for level stakes, so for me, the only real question is,
what percentage of my bank to venture on each bet?
As a guide, if my bets are priced, on average, below 1.75, I will usually consider 5%
level stakes.
Above this, I would be tempted by 4% stakes for average odds of 2, and no more
than 3% for anything riskier than this. When Ive placed 1000 bets, I may
reconsider.
I hope its becoming clear by now that the biggest factor in systems
design is patience.
For the design process might seem, on first sight to be a pain but in fact, its fun
and free.
Little Jack Horner pulled out a plum
can you?
And, like Little Jack Horner, when you do finally land a plum, you will feel more
satisfied than you could ever possibly be with a system purchased off the shelf.
Good luck with your systems design efforts And feel free to let me know about
any promising plums!
Lucy
How to test a betting system and why ROI really isnt
everything
2012-09-28 09:09:15 Lucy
Testing betting systems is harder than it first appears. It is simply not the case that
all you do is put a few bets on and see if you make money.
If only it were so simple.
In practice, a number of factors need to be taken into account. In this article I will
attempt to list them and explain why theyre important.
But first .. Lets begin by looking at a current fad in the betting systems industry.
1. Is ROI an adequate test on its own?
If you scan the betting system review websites across the Internet (returning of
course rapidly to mine as soon as you realise how inferior all the other ones are!),
you may quickly conclude that the magic answer as to whether a betting system is
any good can be provided simply by assessing its ROI, or Return On Investment.
ROI is a metric that expresses financial return as a percentage of the total amount
you have placed as bets. It is therefore often deemed to be a fair comparator
between different sorts of system. It doesnt matter whether youre dealing with
horses, football, tennis or tiddlywinks. ROI simply throws out a number you can use
to compare them all.
And undoubtedly ROI is a useful shorthand for making quick comparisons. I fear
however that its increasingly widespread use may be misleading some, as it
provides only part of the picture when bettors require a more rounded view.
2. So what other factors should I consider?
There are quite a few, as we shall see below.
But if I had to pick one thing that is at least as important as ROI, it would be
strike rate.
Strike rate, as the name suggests, is a fraction derived by dividing the number of
winning bets or trades into the total number of bets or trades placed. It measures
how often the system supplies winners, and is usually expressed as a percentage.
And basically, its a case of the higher the percentage the better.
High strike rates mean shorter losing streaks. This has two benefits, one of which is
purely logical, and the other psychological. We shouldnt assume that people are
machines, and therefore both are worthy of consideration.
The logical benefit is that shorter losing runs allow us to use larger stakes. So if our
system delivers only a modest ROI but a high strike rate, we can safely place a
bigger percentage of our betting bank on each individual bet, and thereby obtain a
greater overall return.
It follows that any given level of ROI on a longshot system is in no way comparable
with the same level when delivered by a banker (short-odds selections) system.
Because in the latter case the far higher strike rate permits an increased level of
staking that would be quite inappropriate for longshots.
The psychological benefit of higher strike rates should be obvious, but its
importance can scarcely be overstated. People are not logical but psychological,
and only paper traders can ignore the emotional effects of long losing runs.
I dont care how often you say you should treat your betting bank as money that is
already gone, there is nothing quite as dispiriting as watching a long sequence of
losing bets.
And if you tell me it doesnt bother you, Ill tell you youve never done it.
3. So is that it, ROI and strike rate?
No, though I would say they are the two most important factors. We should however
also consider
a) Availability of selections
When I set up my site I tested something that almost drove me crazy called the
Sadler system. It threw up one selection about every third week! So I can tell you
from experience that its very frustrating to tie up an entire betting bank for a system
that isnt supplying adequate numbers of selections. There is clearly an opportunity
cost associated with doing so.
b) The time I need to invest in the system in order to make it work, and how it
fits around my home and work life
These might seem obvious considerations, but there may be a tendency to forget
them when focusing at the outset on the potential financial returns.
Simple tipping systems that allow me to throw bets into Betfair at Betfair SP are
therefore more attractive than solutions that involve hunting around for the best possible
bookie price.
c) System complexity
It might work but am I clever enough or interested enough to understand it?
Maybe this one just applies to me, but I cant be bothered with overly complex
systems. Unless the basic idea can be explained in pencil on the back of a post-it
note, Im just not sure Im that interested.
d) Size of bank required to make the system work
Again, an apparently obvious point, but one that is easily overlooked. There is no
point acquiring a system that requires a huge amount of capital to operate that you
dont have. Some arbitrage solutions are particularly prone to funding issues.
e) Risk of account closure by bookmakers / Is there an exchange only

version?
Once again, I find myself preferring systems that deliver at Betfair SP. This
eliminates a lot of long-term worries, and simplifies day-to-day operation.
f) Customer service support
Is there a sales page only, or can you detect a clear intention to provide ongoing
support to customers well into the future?
Products like Total Football Trading, Total Tennis Trading, and Mike Cruickshanks
Bonus Bagging all score highly in this respect.
g) Potential liquidity issues
Can be the Achilles heel of exchange only systems. Its all very well having a great
system, but there has to be some cash in the pot for you to go after!
4. And finally how many bets do I have to place before I can

conclude that a system works?
As a general rule, I aim for at least 100 bets for backing systems, and 200 for laying.
However there are no hard and fast rules. For instance, when backing at short
prices, I usually require more than 100 selections, which is why, for instance, I am
looking for 150 bets in my ongoing trial of Joannes tipping service.
5. To conclude
There are a whole bunch of things we need to consider, of which strike rate and
ROI are probably the biggest two. But the potential list is almost endless.
Another thing I havent mentioned is of course the price of the service! Any returns
we make have to take account of it, and its very easy for our friendly triallist, who is
getting the system for nothing, to forget about it..
Lucy x
Ps If you like the idea of trialling betting systems for free, and would like to
get involved, do drop me a line at my usual address
(lucylastik@laybackandgetrich.com).
Betting On The Horses An Introduction
2013-05-20 17:05:23 Lucy
Its quite a while since I added anything to my Back to Basics Betting

series of articles, and Im starting to feel guilty about it. So I am
going to try and post a bit more regularly on this subject!
Now something I do get asked about a lot, ever since the closure of the Lay Lucy
Lay thread, is how I analyse horse racing.
Often, people who feel endlessly confident about backing football teams based
invariably on limited analysis will freeze at the sight of a racecourse. Because it all
just seems so random.
And, sometimes, it can be.
But equally, it is relatively straightforward to come to a sensible assessment of

most horse races in advance, as there are heaps of free information around.
Indeed, theres way too much!
But: all you need is on the Racing Post website. (and no, Im not affiliated to
them in any way!)
Racing Post
OK I have four basic guidelines for horse racing newbies.
1. Lay horses, dont back them.
It can be just as profitable, and the strike rate is better. So it makes for a more
comfortable ride. Provided of course, you adopt a sensible approach.
The basic idea is to copy the bookies, and exploit the natural human instinct to herd
around the favourite.
Bookmakers spend most of their time and money laying favourites (or second
favourites). And so should you. Not only does it feel good to be copying the bookies,
you will also find that:
1. The odds for favourites on Betfair are very similar to those offered by the
bookmakers. Which means we can lay them for a similar price, and aim to
make similar profits.
2. It keeps our liabilities low. (NB Never lay longshots!)
You may feel the bookies still have a huge advantage as they dont have to pay
commission when they win, but they do have to maintain offices full of suited
managers and call centre operators.
Also, more subtly, they pretty much have to take bets whether they want to or not.
Heavily backed favourites such as the great Frankel are a bookies nightmare.
2. Use the Racing Post to analyse a race, then work out the chances
of each of the shortest-priced horses.
Spend a few minutes reviewing the past experience of the shortest priced
four or five horses:
Has our selection last run within the last 40 days? (Good if yes)
Is its top speed comparable with its rivals?
Has it won races at or above this class previously?
If this is a hurdles race or a steeplechase, does it have prior experience?
Has it previously won races at this course; over this distance; on this going;
carrying this much weight?
Some would add that you should add the trainer, jockey, and draw into the equation.
But I believe these are secondary factors, and the italicised items above count most.
You can glean all this information from the Racing Post race cards, and/or by
clicking on individual horse names.
Racing Post Racecards contain a mass of valuable, free information
Now this is where a degree of personal judgement comes in.
A horse scores one point for every category where, in your view, it has
achieved or done sufficiently well e.g.
Does the Top Speed rating compare favourably with the other horses? (i.e.
greater than, equal to, close to).
Has it finished either first or in a strong second place over this distance?
Has it done well (first/second) in a race on this course before ?
What about over this type of going, or a race of this class? (NB Class
numbers go up as quality goes down, so class 6 is low and 1 is high).
Finally, has it had success over hurdles or in chases (where appropriate)?
Look out for anomalies where a horse has just been promoted into a new class, or
is competing at a longer distance than before, or maybe is tackling hurdles for the
first time. It is surprising how often market prices dont take account of important
changes.
Now add up your points and see how the favourite fares against its nearest
rivals.
You might be surprised at the outcome, with the declared favourite having no
particular advantage over its competition, or indeed appearing to represent an
inferior option.
3. If you conclude that the favourite (or second favourite) is at risk,

with at least two other horses having as good or an even better
chance, look to lay it.
An important part of laying is deciding on an appropriate price, and there isnt
enough space in this article to explain how I like to go about that. However, you
should ensure you never lay at a price above the highest price currently
offered by the bookmakers on oddschecker.com.
Ideally, you should take the midpoint in odds offered by the bookmakers, and lay at
that price, but you may struggle to get matched. That said, dont be afraid to try! Its
amazing how often prices do move to a level near the off that youd never have
thought theyd come down to.
Finally, if you dont get matched, dont panic. Its better not to place a bet, than to
place one at too long a price, just to be in the game.
4. Consider laying more than one horse in the race.
You can significantly reduce your commission bill, and thus your average
commission percentage, by placing several lay bets on the same race. This
approach will cause you to win some bets without incurring some or all of the usual
commission, as your win may be offset by a losing bet.
Now the idea that losing bets may be helpful may sound counter-intuitive, but the
mathematics are robust. Its very important you reduce your commission costs to
the lowest level possible, as doing so can make a significant difference in the long
run to your overall profits.
And if you still think the idea of multiple lays is unappealing, consider this. As soon
as you lay more than one horse, you are guaranteeing that at least one of your bets
will win (assuming the race doesnt finish as a dead heat!). Now doesnt that make
you feel better!?
So is that all there is to it?
Well, no. It also pays to specialise, and learn the traits that apply to certain types of
race. I did something like this in Lay Lucy Lay; though whether you can tell
precisely what from the articles is open to question!
But there should be enough in this article to start you thinking. Remember: keep
your liabilities very low, especially at the beginning, and only bet with a separate
betting bank, using monies you can afford to lose. (And if you fear bettings not
for you, and might consume funds you need for stuff that really matters, have
a read of the Gamble Aware website).
Do let me know how you get on.
Lucy x
Seven Questions You Should Ask Yourself Before
You Place Another Bet
2013-08-31 09:08:49 Lucy
Theres nothing quite like a holiday to give you a reality check. And Im coming home
with a much clearer focus on what I want from my betting.
So in this spirit, I give you seven vital questions to ask yourself

before you put on another bet.
Betting doesnt have to be entirely on the bookies

terms
1. Why are you betting anyway?
Because you think you have found a great opportunity, or because not doing so is
boring?
The former marks you out as an investor and the latter as someone doing it for
entertainment.
Which one are you?
If its the latter, you are unlikely to persist during tough runs and they are
mathematically guaranteed to happen. You may also find the desire to get your bet
matched causes you to accept inferior prices meaning you have no chance of
making money betting.
Its always better to have your bet lapse than get it matched at a poor price.
Which brings me on to
2. Are you taking the best available odds for your bet?
This is far more important mathematically than most people realise.
Because compounding has such an extraordinary effect, careful pricing remains the
single biggest reason why there even is a bookmaking industry.
Bookies dont pick winners. They just aim to price well.
But so can you. Use odds comparison sites like Oddschecker.com and
Bestbetting.com to find the best price and ensure you are getting the highest odds
you can.
Another service you may wish to consider is Betbutler. This one does a lot of the
price-checking legwork for you by comparing a wide range of live odds and bringing
you the best one it can find.
Then, once youve found the best price, consider offering your own odds at the
exchange instead of simply accepting whatever happens to be on offer. Consistently
obtaining better-than-market prices can make a colossal difference to your returns.
I am regularly surprised how far markets can move (especially horse racing) prior to
the off, such that what initially seemed an outlandish price goes on to get matched.
3. Do you have a betting bank for every service or method youre using?
If not, youre simply not betting in a credible way, and will probably bail out as soon
as the first (inevitable!) losing run comes along.
There is nothing so clearly marks you out as a mug punter (or, more kindly, fun
punter) than the absence of a credible betting bank.
There is nothing wrong with betting for entertainment purposes, but its not really
what my websites about.
Personally, I fail to see whats fun about losing money, but we are all different, I
guess.
4. If however you have a bank, well done!, but are you correlating your
stake size to your strike rate?
One of the reasons I prefer high strike rate systems is they give me the confidence
to use larger stakes. So a less profitable service may in practice deliver greater
overall returns, precisely because I feel safer placing bigger bets. Put another way, if
the risk of scarily long losing runs is lower, I will feel happier betting with larger
amounts.
Something like Lucratives Place Bets service (which comes with a complicated
staking system all its own) can easily be run instead with bets at a level 5% of the
original bank balance, precisely because its long-run strike rate is so high.
Thus we end up with a combination of high returns and decent strike rate the holy
grail of betting.
5. Whilst on the subject of betting banks, how real are yours?
Be honest with yourself.
If you had started with a 1000 bank and were now down to your last 150, would
you still continue to bet?
If the answer is No, you never had a 1000 bank. You just told yourself you did.
A betting bank should be regarded as money that is mentally gone. If there is still
any chance you may reclaim it, you never really let it go.
There are however two simple ways to build real betting banks.
6. Should your starting bank be smaller?
The single reason why most people panic and claim back their banks after a bad run
is that theyre betting beyond their means.
A 1000 bank with 5% level stakes may sound impressively professional, but if, in
practice, you would bail out if your balance fell to 500, youve actually been using a
500 bank with 10% level stakes.
Which is little short of suicidal.
7. Why not use someone elses money to build your bank? Youll feel a lot
less precious about it if you do.
The obvious products to do this with are Bonus Bagging and Profit Maximiser.
You can even use the former to make enough cash to buy the latter, so the whole
thing involves almost no risk capital at all!
Both these products are huge fun, and allow you to extract four figure sums from the
market at almost zero risk.
So why wouldnt you?
You will find you bet with far greater confidence when the money youre using was
never yours in the first place.
And thats it.
Seven steps you can implement today to make your betting lower risk and more
profitable.
The question is will you take action today to implement them?
Lucy
Do Each-Way Doubles Offer The Road To Riches?
2013-06-25 12:06:01 Lucy
Maybe its just coincidence, but I seem to have received a whole pile of emails in the
last few days about each-way doubles.
They vary in the detail, but broadly theyre all asking whether each-way doubles offer
a low-risk route to more of this stuff.
Can each way doubles make you rich?
So whats an each way double anyway, and is it any good?
Wander into your average bookmaker shop (not something I feel particularly
comfortable doing if Im honest thank heaven for online betting!), and you are very
unlikely to see advertisements for each-way doubles.
Which does rather make you think.
Instead, daft accumulators, with exotic names like Goliaths and Union Jacks, will be
everywhere. Improbable winnings projections will be prominently displayed, and
perhaps even augmented by bonus payouts for the bigger accumulators.
.The reason being that accumulators make the bookies a lot of money, by
compounding the overrounds in their favour.
So given that your average bookie is probably unwilling to tell the average Jane (or
Jack) about each way doubles, maybe this should make us ponder.
Just maybe theyre a very good idea.?
Now, like many things to do with betting, the answer is well, yes, kinda, though
much depends on race selection. But they can be a good way of betting on two
horses when you think both have a strong chance of at least finishing in the places.
Consider for instance two handicap races, each with at least twelve runners. In both
cases, the bookies will be paying out 1/4 odds on place finishes on each of the first
3 positions.
Suppose we have placed an each-way double on Lucky Ned at 3-1 in the first race,
and Honest Bob at 5-2 in the second.
Instinctively, you might suppose that these prices are too short for each-way betting,
and Im sure you wouldnt be alone in thinking so. Most punters reserve each-way
bets for long shots that they think may make an impression but have little chance of
winning.
However, lets stay with my example, and imagine both our selections finish in the
places, but neither wins.
Now, an each-way double is really two separate doubles One on both

selections to win, and the other on both to place.
Assuming we have placed a 10 each-way double (effectively two doubles of 10

each for a total outlay of 20), the 10 win bet stake will be lost (as both horses
needed to win for the win double to come up, and neither did), but the 10 place
double would return 28.44, calculated thus:
First Bet Return - = ((10 * ( 3 / 4))+10) = 17.50

Second Bet Return = ( 17.50 * (5 /2) / 4 ) + 17.50 = 28.44
Thus we finish up ahead by 8.44 overall = (28.44 20), without having picked a
winner from either of our short-priced selections!
This may seem like a too good to be true outcome, but it does have its downside.
The biggest one being that if either horse should be unplaced, we are sure to lose
our entire stake even if our other selection comes home in front.
One winner and one place would also only pay out on the place double, and
probably leave you with a strong sense of so near, and yet so very far.
Because the fact is that each way doubles really come into their own when
both your bets win.
In the example above, you would receive 140 back from the win portion of your bet,
plus the 28.44 for the place positions, giving a total return of 168.44.
So, in my view, each way doubles are really best regarded as an elaborate form of
win double for fancied horses, with place market insurance to cover your stakes in
the event that your selections dont quite deliver.
Will the bookies close you down ?
If you do a lot of each way doubles, there is a definite risk of account closure.
Especially of course if you keep winning! Bookies love mug punters, not
mathematically astute players, and each way doubles do rather flag you as the
latter.
However there is nothing to stop you emulating an each way double at the
exchange.
Simply put on win and place bets on two short-priced horses in different races,
carrying forward any returns from the first to the second, and you will create the
same effect And quite possibly benefit from better pricing too.
Summary
Each-way doubles appeal in races containing a small number of serious

contenders. For instance, where there are three places and three short-priced
selections, and a big price gap to the fourth favourite, you may be looking at a
suitable race.
You should work out all the sums before you place your bets, using my free,
completely unwarrantied(!) calculation spreadsheet. Check that, if only the place
double comes up, your combined stake will be returned as a minimum.
Finally, keep your eyes open for races where bookies are offering enhanced bonus
terms.
For instance, Skybet regularly offer 1/4 place fractions on non-handicaps, instead of
the mandatory 1/5. You can check the place fraction and number of positions that
will apply by looking at the foot of each bookmaker column on the race cards at
www.oddschecker.com.
Place terms display at
oddschecker.com
And good luck!
Lucy

Zero Risk Business opportunity 0.00 investment
required, and you get lots of help from me!
2013-05-02 12:05:15 Lucy
This isnt a joke, honestly.
No, its a serious, free opportunity that you ought to consider. Particularly if you have
a profitable betting angle youd like to publicise, and maybe, one day, sell.
Get Roberto's
Football & Tennis
Tips Here!
You see, its been fascinating to watch the growth of Robertos tips
service on my site. Its now my most popular page, with regular readers
often checking back to see who hes tipping next.
Now Robertos been punting for years, drawing on his extensive knowledge of both
tennis and Italian football to make money. But he has only recently started
publishing his tips to the wider world, as he doesnt have a website of his own.
Now though, within a matter of weeks, hes got an audience, and its taking off
And it isnt the first time.
Something similar happened last year with Joannes football tips.
Once again, this free service rapidly became the most popular thread on my site.
Until of course, poor Joanne decided tipping wasnt for her when the first bad run
kicked in.
But how do you think Joanne would have felt if shed also gone to the trouble of
developing a website, a subscriber list, embedded PayPal links, search engine
optimisation and so on before then deciding she wouldnt enjoy being a tipster?
So the way I look at it, LB&GR helped both Joanne and Roberto. And most
importantly, its benefited my readers too .
I love the idea of introducing readers of my site to exciting new tipster services that
they can try out for free, often for several months, before anyone even suggests
parting with any cash.
Im not aware of too many other tipsters out there offering free, long-running public
services, who dont even ask for your email address.
But Im keen to offer more such products, as theyre just so popular.
So do you have a promising tipster service youd like to tell me about?
Or maybe youve built a cute little betting, trading or arbitrage system, but
dont know how to publicise it?
If so, just drop me a line at lucylastik@laybackandgetrich.com with details of what

youve got, plus any test results or performance data that you happen to have, and
well have a chat about it.
Or you can just leave me a comment below this post. Its up to you.
And please dont be shy. Im happy to hear from you, no matter how crazy you think
it sounds!
Im not promising to make you rich, but I am promising it wont cost you a penny to
try.
And who knows, in a couple of weeks time, you may, like Roberto, have your own
regular audience at Lay Back And Get Rich.
Lucy xx
SECTION FIVE
The Importance Of Portfolio Betting & How
To Do It
Life In The Edinburgh Sunshine & How Online Betting
Can Stop You Worrying
2012-11-08 13:11:39 Lucy
Im currently away from home in gorgeous Edinburgh, sitting at a window in a

friends home office, with sunlight pouring in over the rooftops, and a view of the
castle on the hill. I can barely see my laptop screen for the morning light.
Basically, if this is winter, its all right by me.
Edinburgh Castle
I find that the experience of travel gives me a completely different perspective on all
sorts of things. One is to make me realise what a precious thing time is; as I try so
hard to squeeze every last moment out of my short visits here. And another is how
lucky we all are to be so connected.
I could quite happily have spent all morning poring over the papers, drinking black
coffee, and eating the lovely poached eggs and porridge served by
my unexpectedly Lithuanian waitress. The drawing room was so peaceful, like an
old library, in a way that seemed oddly Scottish.
What a long way away I felt from all those screaming football fans and hollering
racegoers at the events that make me money.
I read vaguely of nervous stock markets, and specifically about what a newly re-
elected president might do that could affect us all. Pundits gazed into the future
and worried. In fact, the whole newspaper struck me as either worried or angry, in
fairly equal parts.
I brought my knife down on my egg, and burst the yolk. I love the way poached eggs
bulge like balloons just before you split them.
Maybe the world is, as they say, going to hell in a handcart. But I find Im not
worried.
I have a portfolio of recession-proof betting systems that I know will take care of me
in the long term.
And they are not correlated in any way to the gloomy predictions in my morning
newspaper.
First thing this morning, I went online, picked up my tips and placed my bets. My
biggest worry then was simply how much salt I should really be putting on my eggs.
I love this betting life.
And if youre interested in learning more about my my portfolio approach to betting

(as explained in my upcoming Rollingstone product launching to a select group
only in January 2013!), do drop me a line at lucylastik@laybackandgetrich.com.
Lucy x
Six% with Lucy :)
2012-05-21 22:05:54 Lucy
Most bettors especially new bettors simply try to go too fast. And as many a
lady will protest, usually things go better if you take them a little more slowly.
Easy does it... Lx
Sadly, your average online bettor wants it all now the killer system, the hottest
tipster, the inside track, and with them all, the answer to financial prayers. And
when it doesnt happen quickly enough (often after burning too much cash on
systems and tipsters!), they curse the world of betting as if it were a den of vipers..
Which, incidentally, I dont particularly believe it to be.
Of course, the good old bookmakers are an easy target! But are they to blame for
unrealistic,unfulfilled expectations?
In my view, no rushed approach to any investment will ever work. It doesnt work
in the stock market, and we shouldnt expect it to work on the turf either.
And yet the irony is, its never been easier to make money from betting.
The key idea, I have found, is the one that any newly qualified IFA will bore you with
namely that compounding interest will accelerate growth in an exponential way.
We all know this but often fail to put it into practice.
One way to do so is to break our annual growth targets down into monthly and
weekly targets. So for instance, when I first took on the seemingly impossible task
of turning 1000 into 2000 in twelve months, I realised that I had only to reach
1060 by the end of month 1, as only 6% per month growth will double your
capital in a year.
This follows from the rule of 72, which states that any interest rate, divided into 72,
will (more or less) yield an answer equal to the number of interest periods required
to double your capital. 6 goes into 72 twelve times, so 12 months @ 6% per month
should do it.
Which meant, for me, that turning 1000 into 2000 only required me to add 60 to
my starting bank in month 1. Which in turn meant I had to make around 14 in week
one.
Thats it. Fourteen pounds in a week. Say it again slowly.
All you have to do to double your 1000 in a year, is turn it into 1014 in a
week. Then keep repeating the dose 1.4% growth a week.
Doesnt sound so hard now, does it?
You can do this with a couple of simple arbs on Oddsportal, or a new account for
your partner at William Hill
then trade off at Betfair, and bank that 14 without breaking sweat.
Now take the rest of the week off.
Bit easier than doubling your money on the stock market, dont you think?
I intend real soon to launch a new capital building product to exploit the power of
compounding. Itll be called (drum roll.) -
Rol ingstone.
Stay tuned to find out more, or drop me a line by mailing
lucylastik@laybackandgetrich.com to be kept right up to date.
I think youre gonna love it.
Lx
Do you pick up pennies from the pavement?
2012-06-14 23:06:42 Lucy
Or do you let them lie there as you hurry on by, thinking theyre simply not
worth the trouble?
I read a thought-provoking article today which made me wonder what our answer to
this question says about our attitude to money. It was called, Why You Should
Always Pick Up Pennies.
Although the article has a slightly New Age feel that, I suspect, may discourage one
or two of my readers (Pennies are a small gift from the universe! etc.), I do agree
with the author that, Passing up a penny shows a lack of appreciation. And,
rather more practically, I have certainly observed how picking them up can rapidly
lead to a whole jar of money.
In my house, a huge blue dish full of copper and silver props open a glass kitchen
door that is forever threatening, in a draught, to slam shut. And every now and again
(usually when I trip over it, cursing, sending small coins cartwheeling across the
room), I bag up the heap of coins and take them to my local supermarket, where
they have a coin sorter.
I once retrieved 37 from that bowl!
Butwhat does all this have to do with betting?, I hear you ask.
Well, Im glad you did. Because the answer is a lot.
Im firmly convinced that too many punters worry way too much about finding
winners. When maybe all you need do is learn ways of picking pennies up off the
pavement at Betfair.
Today for instance: I made a shade over 30 from a few simple trades that ran
pretty much on autopilot. I placed the bets this morning, then went out for most of
the afternoon.
I barely knew who was running in the races in question. I simply followed a little
numerical trick, to pick up some loose Betfair change. 1.40 here and 2.43 there.
Sure, its small fry really.
It certainly wont make me rich, but it is repeatable, and indeed tax-free. And, rather
like dropping found money into that old blue bowl thats propping open my glass
kitchen door, I find I can quite quickly grow my betting bank. No stress, no rush, just
gently piling up those pennies.
Indeed, by reinvesting my winnings and ratcheting my stakes, I can even benefit

from the tremendous power of compounding.
This kind of approach is one of the big ideas behind my imminent new product.
Rollingstone.
But it might be worth reflecting on all your betting in the light of this idea.
Are you still trying to find those big winners, when, all the time, there are plenty of
pretty little coins at your feet?
I didnt choose a single winner to make todays contribution to the blue

kitchen bowl.
Just a thought.
Lxx
City Boys And Hobos Similarities, Differences, And
The Moral Of The Tale
2013-01-28 23:01:09 Lucy
Consider this.
Close your eyes and think of a person who bets on horses. He (usually he) maybe
hangs around at the local bookmakers, watching the televised racing, with a slip of
paper scrunched up in his hand, waiting and praying for his chosen colt to romp
home at some remote industrial racetrack, like Wolverhampton under the lights, or
Southwells sapping fibresand.
If all goes well, and Lucky Ned comes home in front, then maybe he (and it almost
certainly will be he by this point) will pop next door for a swift one to celebrate.
And if Lucky Ned fails to show, hell probably do the same damned thing, this time to
drown his sorrows.
Imagine the cut of his clothes, and whether he thought to shower and shave.
Imagine the welcome that awaits him at home, following another afternoon at the
bookies. Imagine the mode of transport that will take him there: the bus maybe, or,
if its been a tough day, Shankss pony.
Now think again.
Of someone who works for an investment bank and plays the financial markets in
the City. He (and again, statistically, we are probably looking at a he) probably wont
be sinking stout down the Dog and Duck. Perhaps you can imagine him sipping
something lighter with an altogether different crowd, in a ceviche restaurant in Soho
perhaps, or one of those mahogany wine bars that, appropriately enough, started
out as banks.
Imagine the welcome that awaits him in Surrey or Herts., with the privately schooled
kids, and the coiffured wife. Imagine the journey home from the station, blasting
round the bends in a Bentley. Or feeling a Ferraris feline muscle.
Do we secretly admire him, the endlessly successful City boy, or despise (or envy)
his overt wealth?
And do we even begin to associate him with our poor old friend at the bookies, or
consider that the pair of them are, in a very real sense, indulged in the same kind of
trade?
What do you feel about Stus admission that hes as much a gambler on the
markets as our losing punter?
For the connotations we associate with my stereotypes could scarcely be more

different. One oozes wealth and easy money; the other attracts only our sympathy,
even despair.
And yet why is it so?
The financial markets are far more efficient than their sporting counterparts, so,
inevitably, more difficult to locate opportunities within. Mis-pricing is commonplace
amongst the bookmakers, with glaring trading and arbitrage possibilities available at
almost any time of day. Yet such inefficiencies would be gone in a moment in the
financial markets, seized on by circling software vultures that dart in for the kill
far faster than any human could.
Banks too are taxed on winnings, so have to play the game with the cards stacked
against them. Whereas the sports punter gets to pocket his profits, with every
penny safe from the Revenues grasp.
My point is simply this. Sports markets should be easier to play than the financial
markets. Theyre less efficient, and, incredibly, still tax-free. Yet you and I both
know that our city trader will make his money as easily as the shabby punter will
lose his bus fare home at Hills.
So why is it so?
I believe its because most sports punters dont apply a rigid trading framework. As
Stu points out, they dont adopt the City traders logical approach to portfolio
construction. They dont understand value, they dont balance risk, they give in to
psychological biases.
This has got to stop.
Its time to stop making the same old mistakes.
Its time to get organised.
In short, after ten months waiting, and for a limited period only, its time for
Rollingstone.
Click here to download it now.

Lucy x
5 Steps To Sports Betting Success
2013-06-06 10:06:06 Lucy
Whenever I read the financial pages these days, I come away feeling
pretty scared.
Apparently, if we think the worst is behind us, we could be very wrong.
Serious commentators (such as Allister Heath in the Daily Telegraph) warn of a

coming storm unlike no other.
Now I have no idea if they are right to talk like this though my instinct is that the
current slump may continue for a long time but I do believe this is where the sports
markets can help.
Because, for most people, they represent an understandable alternative to

the opaque, financially doped world of stocks and shares.
There are just too many things I dont understand about the financial markets.
For instance, I dont understand why anyone should be allowed to short stocks.
I also still dont really grasp quantitative easing (though the Bank of Englands
extraordinary video on the subject makes it quite plain they are deliberately setting
out to distort the price of stocks and other assets!).
The Bank Of England's Defence Of Quantitative Easing
SO do you really want to play in a rigged casino?
I certainly dont.
But I do understand how to have a punt on horse-racing and football. And I believe
they represent a more comprehensible, sensible opportunity for most people.
But..instead of just moaning, lets do something about it.
So, ladies and gentlemen I give you my 5 Step Plan to Sports

Betting Success!
1. Start regarding your betting as investment rather than just a bit of fun.
This doesnt mean to say you cant enjoy it.

But it does mean the end to fun bets; and punting on matches just to make them
more interesting; and backing your favourite team; and other, similar
rationalisations of practices that amount to little more than throwing money away.
Its time to get organised about betting!
It's time to get organised!
One simple way of doing so (that may sound positively irresponsible on first reading)
is to bet more!
Let me explain.
If you have a betting bank of 500, its easy to regard it as luxury money.
If your bets come off then thats great, but, if not, its probably not the end of the
world.
But if you have a bank of thousands, you will find your mindset is quite
different.
Now of course, it should never be the end of the world if your bets dont come off.
If it is, you are investing way beyond your means.
But although I insist you should never bet with money you cannot afford to lose, it
should also be obvious that fun betting is guaranteed to lead to a less than
professional approach.
If you can afford it, I therefore recommend a significant bank, ideally of a couple of
thousands rather than a couple of hundreds.
You can even build up a bank using bonus bagging, which is an almost risk-free
way of creating investment capital by exploiting somebody elses generosity.
But my main point is that if you have a serious betting bank, you will find you
approach every bet with a much more serious minded attitude.
But if you cannot afford to do this properly, and are tempted to get involved
anyway, I recommend you go to Gamble Awares website right now, and stop
reading immediately.
2. Get used to the statistical certainty of losing runs.
Its just too easy to give up when you have your first losing run.
Losing runs are a fact of betting life.
But such runs are an inevitable, mathematically guaranteed fact of life with any
sort of betting.
If you dont believe me, read this article by my investment banker friend Stu, who
explains how fabricated financial data can actually be identified precisely by the
absence of such losing runs (Scroll to the end for the section entitled, Finally It
Will Go Wrong!).
3. If you really cannot cope with losing runs, get yourself a plan B for when
they occur!
My free Rollingstone manual proposes a betting framework with a contingency plan

for losing runs built in.
When you hit a red line level of loss, it provides you a way out of the mess.
It can take time, and does involve patience, but it gives you your control back, and
stops that awful runaway sensation in the pit of your stomach that losing runs
create.
The ability to control your own destiny is a primary factor in personal happiness.
Which is an insight that applies as much to betting as it does to any other area of
life.
Make sure you have something like Rollingstone to keep you in the driving seat!
4. Dont subscribe to just one good tipster service, use three or four.
You wouldnt dream of investing your entire pension plan in a single share or unit
trust, would you?
Exactly the same logic applies with betting.
If you have a handful of proven tipsters supplying you with selections, the chances of
more than one or two going wrong at any one time are actually quite slim.
A portfolio approach gives you protection against poor overall performance, and
reduces volatility. You get less dramatic ups but equally less frightening downs.
(And incidentally, the ups dont have to be that big to make a huge difference. Just
6% bank growth per month will double your money in a year).
Have a look at some of the best quality services here on my site:
Lucratives Place Betting service did extremely well in our trial.

And another one thats definitely worth a look is our 2013 Best Tipster winner,
Mathematician Betting.
5. Learn to trade the markets directly.
There are few things as reassuring as the certain knowledge you can go back to the
market from time to time and top up your savings whenever you need to.
My only issue with trading is that it can be quite time-consuming.
But the good news is its not difficult to learn to do it well especially as many of the
people taking the other end of your trade wont know how to.
Indeed, one of the great things about the sports market is that a lot of your
competition comprises so-called mug punters!
That is, other people who are betting for fun.
Just think of the profits you can extract by getting trained to play against people who
think its fun to lose money!
This is a phenomenon unique to the sports markets. You dont get too many
people playing the financial markets just for a bit of a laugh.
The sports markets, unlike financial markets, are dominated by amateurs. And
consequently, cognitive biases abound, which you can exploit.
Such as the herd instinct to lump on favourites. Or trend following practices, such
as steaming and drifting, that have been shown to have no bearing whatsoever on
who actually wins races or matches.
These are phenomena you can turn into profits if you know what youre doing.
There are several articles about this subject on my site. You might want to start with
the following ones.
Introduction to Easy Technical Trading

Introduction to Psychological Trading
A simple daily trade you can use for regular profits
In terms of products, you should look at my protracted trial of Total Football Trading
and our 2013 Best Product Oscar winner Pre-Match Trading, as both have done
very well in testing.
SkewTrader Pro
In addition, my own Skewtrader Pro product is released from time to time, along with
my 8th Pillar football strategy.
Both are ways of trading at extremely low risk. (To be added to the waiting list,
simply leave a comment below or click here to mail me @
lucylastik@laybackandgetrich.com)
Another thing you should do is get yourself a tool for trading the exchanges. There
are several available.
Cymatic Trader
Most come at a premium, but one Ive discovered recently thats still available for
free is an extraordinary piece of software called Cymatic Trader.
Finally, you may wish to consider getting some classroom training on

the subject.
Betfair Trading Course By Peter Webb
I intend to add a new thread soon featuring a regular reader who is shortly to attend
Peter Webbs Betfair trading course.
I have a review of his course already here, but this time we will look at both the
course itself and the long term effect on my friends trading performance in the
months that follow.
And thats it.
You can do this. Theres no mystery.
Its just about getting organised, and sticking to the plan.
Let me know how you get on.
Lucy x

SECTION SIX
And Finally Perspective On Betting
Sunshine, Beach Houses And Perspective
2013-08-26 19:08:55 Lucy
Its really wonderful to get away from the betting world for a few
days. But its not that easy.
Is there any other industry that is so utterly online?
Every time I open my email, theres a new bookie offer, or a new system being
touted with apparently impeccable credentials.
And plenty of them do appear worth a look.
Bookies have become super-competitive, and the betting systems world that lives in
their shadow isnt far behind.
I personally dont believe the tired old cliche that nearly everyone out there is a scam
merchant.
A few are, but a lot are just jostling for attention,and maybe stretching their claims a
little (or a lot!) as a result.
But its perhaps understandable if not really always forgivable. Because just
maybe, with our urgent search for the next killer system, we are all a little complicit
in the systems merry-go-round?
Perspective is a wonderful thing.
I am currently lying on a beach towel in a sleepy Breton resort called Camaret sur
Mer.
Nothing here seems to have changed in forever.
There is a beautiful old stone house upon the hill overlooking the bay.
My dream house in Brittany
If theyve got wifi in there, Id be both amazed and disappointed.
And there are tiny sailing boats in the bay, bobbing about like paper cups.
Their occupants are surely unaware of bet365s unquestionably generous 50 free

bet offer on tonights United v Chelsea clash.
(I sincerely hope so anyway).
Because the need to jump on todays killer deals just seems a little less urgent right
now.
Today, somehow, the whole short-termist nature of the thing - Offer must end!,
only X places remaining is exposed for what it really is.
Because we all know therell be another offer in my inbox in the morning.
Lying here, it all looks a bit desperate. Like theyre trying to offer something for
nothing, and still not getting believed
Free bets everywhere
Second place refunds..
First goal scorer money back if your man nets at some point
And all with small print to make your eyes water.
This is, in short, a ferociously competitive industry. But this means you, oh
customer, are in a powerful position.
So why not use that power?

Instead of dithering over, say, that Profit Maximiser purchase, why not just buy the
thing, and if you dont like it, claim your clickbank refund ?
Its a no brainer.
Yet many sit on the sidelines asking endless questions they could answer, risk-free,
for themselves.
And beyond products like PM, you almost certainly dont need the latest systems.
You really dont.
You need a portfolio of about four long-proven products, coupled with some sensible
long-term goals.
I argued a long time ago for a target of 6% profit every month, with recovery systems
to help you regain your poise whenever the (mathematically inevitable) losing runs
kick in.
I then wrote it all up in a manual called Rollingstone that you can get for free on my
site.
Rollingstone Its Not New But Then Thats The

Point.
You can leave a donation if you like (many do), but you dont have to.
Im not taking it down anytime soon or restricting the number of entrants.

Its not that kind of product.
Its not new, but, like the house on the hill, its solid and sensible, with principles
(none of which I can take credit for) that are permanent and enduring.
Ive put my bets on today and am now going back to my snooze in

the sun.
If I get a minute I may yet consider that bet365 arb too..
And after that , Im off for a paddle.
It really doesnt have to be so hard, you know.
Lucy x
Starfish, Shrimps and Online Betting Perspective
v2.0
2013-08-28 17:08:25 Lucy
Crozon, Brittany
Its hotter today, and the beach Im on is even more remote than the
last one.
The sea isnt just going out, its racing down the beach, with little girls in bonnets
disappearing after it for a paddle.
I splash through rock pools full of shrimps and starfish. Or lay on my towel as blood
red butterflies flutter round my knees.
Childhood memories play in the back of my mind, of gently levering up rocks with
the wrong end of a fishing net, hoping to spot hermit crabs or sea snails or tiny
darting fish.
There is innocence and beauty everywhere, an infants drawing of cloudless sunny

skies and the relentless roaring sea.
It all feels true and permanent.
I close my eyes and take off my sunglasses; and the sunlight strains at my
eyelashes, seemingly struggling to get in.
When I open them again, I can see children playing boules with their father. He
probably did the same with his..
It seems an affront to nature to be typing an article about betting.

But so I am.
I cant remember where I read it. But I came across the idea you should always
keep a crisp 20 note under your laptop whilst you trade. The idea being to keep it
real.
In a similar spirit, I hereby promise myself to take more breaks from betting.
To switch off the computer
Put my phone in airplane mode
To listen to the oceans hissing crash and drag.
I have a pile of trials to pick up again next week As I write this , they are either
paused, or being run by kind souls on my behalf.
I cant wait to see how the unheralded Racing Revolt is doing.
I am even keener to find out if Beaumonts Bets, with its 1000 tips a month, can live
up to its star billing.
But right here, right now, I know I must also remember these heady smells, this
gorgeous warmth, and the improbable dazzling brightness of the scene.
Keep it real folks, keep it real.
Modern betting is just so many electrons down a telephone wire.
Whereas in my childhood memory, a little girl is gingerly picking up a beached

starfish in her fat hand, before lowering it back into the water.
Lucy
Winning and losing, and loving life. The Great Horse
Racing Secret of Sir Clement Freud
2013-02-19 00:02:17 Lucy
Its so easy to become intense about this whole betting thing, and forget to
enjoy the ride.
I say this as much to myself as to anyone else, because I realise just how long it is
since I last went to the races, and how easily we can be swept along by the
electronic nature of modern punting.
And what a drab thing life is, if all we are doing is chasing profit. For if that is all we
are in it for, we will quickly lose our enthusiasm for our betting project when we hit
our first poor run.
There is a better way of course.
Ive been reading a rather wonderful book that Id heartily recommend to anyone with
a love of nostalgia and the sporting life.
Freud on Course: The Racing Lives of Clement Freud is really an anthology of the
great mans writings for the Racing Post. So I suppose my first thought was that it
might be fun to dip into occasionally, as a sort of a bathroom book.
But actually its far better written than most of the rubbish that gets left by the
average loo. And so extremely engaging, that its almost impossible to put down.
Freuds love of horse racing rolls off every page, so that although it may not at first
seem terribly practical, it packs a punch to flatten all those boring Dummies books
about Betfair.
Clearly, Freud was in it for the money as much as anyone. For instance, he never
misses an opportunity to ask a waiter for a racing tip, when the fish restaurant hes
dining in is full of indiscreet trainers whose mounts are due to go in the local meeting
that afternoon.
But he then writes with equal relish about the fish and chips they serve, celebrating
the John Dory (resplendent with freshness), the mushy peas (served with mint
sauce) and the after-dinner sweets (rich, heavy, black, bitter, walnut chocolate
nuggets to take your mind off the bill).
In short, its a book full of joie de vivre. About learning how to live, as well
as how to make a living.
Such wisdom and perspective help him celebrate his successes and endure his
defeats with common sense and humour.
For instance, one of his articles gradually reveals itself to be a letter to a horse he
owns that is about to be gelded!
I tell myself, he says, that no-one misses what they have not enjoyed, which
makes me feel better, and come 2005 I shall find a little race somewhere and back
you to win me bundles of dosh.
If you are a vengeful brute and want to get your own back, youll finish out of
the money.
Freud also reveals what is (for him) the true nature of the betting worlds charm
when explaining how much horse ownership was actually costing him. In his usual
self-deprecating style, he suggests that his huge, accumulated losses might yet be
recovered if his poorly performing filly cleans up at some big meeting. My
wife, an innocent woman, he says, asks whether I might clean up even more
comprehensively were I to abandon horse ownership and take up solitaire. I
changed the subject to quality of life. How much of that do you get on a solitaire
board?
Indeed.
And although I cannot claim to being able to remain quite as phlegmatic as Sir
Clement when things go awry, I absolutely aspire to doing so. Nothing in betting
really matters as much as we often think.
Lucy
ps As a footnote, I have noticed that Lee, who writes on my site, brings a similar
mixture of humour and perspective to his writing and betting. You can review Lees
often hilarious series of articles here. You might wish to start with this one, his
extraordinary first post, about Strategic Betting.
SECTION SEVEN
Final Thoughts A Guest Post From Stu
That You HAVE To Read!
Guest Post Lessons From A REAL Professional
Gambler.
2013-01-23 23:01:34 stu
Hi! My name is Stu, and Lucy has very kindly asked me to write a
short article Why? Well, the main reason is because in many ways,
Im a full time, professional gambler.
Not quite the same full time as you hear about on forums where people are
greening up their tennis trades on their laptop in their gardens. No I do this full time
at a well known international company. An enterprise scale gambling house if you
will, that brings in hundreds of millions in profit each year..
Except rather than gamble on horses, football or tennis, we gamble on

financial markets. And we dont call it gambling. At least not to our clients. We call
it investing, but its pretty much the same thing.
The slightly more banal truth is that I work for a financial investment company. We
take other peoples money, carefully invest it, and hopefully turn them a good profit.
We look after money for pension funds and charitable trusts. We might be looking
after some of your own hard earned cash in the guise of the funds in your ISA.
We are responsible.
We are heavily regulated.
We dont gamble.
Honest
Coming back to the question of why I am writing this, it is off the back of a
conversation I had with Lucy about her upcoming Rollingstone product. I mentioned
how I was intrigued by the way Lucy wrapped up sports gambling and presented it
using more traditional investment concepts. A portfolio of systems that spread your
risk around. Sensible, modest growth targets. Consideration to the psychology and
emotional response to bad results. This is all very much in agreement with my own
personal view that our degenerate hobby, if handled sensibly, can be a very sound
investment approach and a viable alternative to traditional investment philosophies.
Although it can be difficult to scale the sports gambling world to the same levels as
traditional investments due to issues such as stake limitations, account closures
and liquidity issues on exchanges, the sports markets can be quite appealing when
compared to financial markets.
The gambling industry is rough around the edges.
To use the investment vernacular, the markets are inefficient. The market
participants can be slow to react and equally, they often overreact on the spur of the
moment.
In the financial world, mis-pricing is seized upon in milliseconds by automated

systems. In the sporting world, arbitrage opportunities can be picked off by hand
hours later. There are cracks in the system that are unlikely to be rectified (see
Lucys Skewtrader Pro as an example). All of these inefficiencies lead to
opportunities that can be exploited for profit. Layer on top of this the plethora of
cashback, bonuses and refunds that get thrown about to entice the mug punter, and
the kicker that its all tax free, and you have quite an interesting investment vehicle. It
certainly looks more attractive than a 3.1%, 60 day notice cash ISA.
So, are there any lessons to be taken from the world of professional investment
that can be applied to sports investing?
Yes given the similarities, there are many, but the three that Ill
concentrate on are portfolio theory, value and behavioural biases.
Lesson 1 Portfolio Theory
There is no getting away from the underlying fact that the sports punter and the fund
manager are both essentially gambling. They are taking views on an uncertain future
and put their money where their mouth is. As hard as they try, they arent going to hit
winners every time. So, how can we make money despite this uncertainty?
Some people enjoy the highs of winning the big gambles, but if you are being paid to
look after somebody elses money, this probably isnt the most responsible strategy.
One fairly risk averse strategy, but one that works well in both the financial and
gambling world, is the concept of a pyramid based portfolio, with a large, solid, low
risk base at the bottom, and smaller more speculative layers on top. As you move
up the pyramid, each layer gets smaller, but adds more risk and the possibility of
higher returns. The intention is here that income from lower levels provides enough
upside to cover any losses on the more speculative layers. If you make 25 each
day on risk free offers, and then punt 15 a day on a speculative 12/1 shots, you can
only profit in the long run. There will be variance in your returns, but it will always be
heading in the right direction.
Another key idea when constructing your portfolio is that of risk management and
diversification. As well as evaluating each investment on its own merits (see the
section on value below), you should also consider its effect on your overall portfolio.
The fund manager will look at the correlation of one securitys returns against those
already in the portfolio in an attempt to diversify and reduce overall risk (variance).
You should do the same with your bets:
Evaluate the potential profit and loss on each possible outcome.

Assess how it would interact with your current open positions.
Are you already exposed to a particular result?
Does it increase the risk on a particular outcome or reduce it?
Dont put all your eggs in one basket and all that
Lesson 2 Value
No matter how you decide to structure your portfolio, when selecting individual
positions, you should always consider what something is worth versus what you pay
for it.
To quote Warren Buffett, Price is what you pay; value is what you get. Whether
were talking about socks or stocks, I like buying quality merchandise when it is
marked down.
In finance, this is emphasized most by the value investing strategy, which, in a

nutshell is buying something for less than it is (hopefully) worth (or, conversely,
selling something for more than what it is worth). Like the casino with its house edge
on the roulette table, or the bookmakers 110% book, if you are getting more in than
you are paying out, you are tilting the game in your favor, and despite not winning
every bet, you increase your chances of being up in the long term.
In the financial world, analysts concentrate on determining the intrinsic value of

securities. They scrutinize the companys financial results, their management plans,
and developments within the wider operating industry in order to try and find
something that hasnt been factored into the price by the market already. They make
forecasts on the sales, revenue and operating expenses of the company, and
perform what-if style scenario based analysis all with the aim of trying to
determining a fair value stock today based on what they believe will play out in the
future.
In reality, there is no correct answer when determining a securitys intrinsic value. It

is all a matter of opinion and as with gambling, the future is uncertain. To reflect this,
the analysts will include a margin of safety and set buy and sell targets either side of
their estimates. For instance, if they estimate a companys intrinsic value to be $12
per share, they may set a buy target at $10.50 and a sell target at $13. If the market
price still falls outside of this range, say at $10.28, it is a potential trade, and in this
case a buy.
In the sporting world you could do the work of an analyst, do the in depth research
and price up the market. If you can do a better job at this than the bookmakers and
enter into mispriced gambles, again, in the long term, you should be up. Admittedly
this is beyond most people, but there is many a good tipping service attempting just
this. If you do fancy trying your hand at it, The Definitive Guide to Betting on Football
is an interesting read.
One slightly easier route is to try and get an edge by responding to news before
others. If you can think one or two steps removed, much like the financial analyst
assessing how problems at a copper company impact the downstream technology
company that they supply, you start to see some great opportunities.
A common occurrence is that markets overreact to events that are happening right
now, as capitalized on by swing trading strategies on in-play Tennis and NFL, but
are slow to adjust prices on distant or correlated events. The evening I first drafted
this, Bradford were playing Aston Villa in the Capital One Cup semi final.
The moment Bradford scored an equalizer against Villa the news was rapidly
factored into the price of Bradford to qualify for the final. However, it also had a
secondary effect of shortening Chelsea and, in particular, Swanseas chances of
actually winning the cup outright. These kind of long term knock-on effects can
be easier to take advantage of than the frantic swings in the here-and-now
markets.
Another easy source of value is related to arbitrage pricing theory (APT), which is a
grand term that suggests you shouldnt be able to get money for nothing. Although
sentiment is a strong driver of prices, particularly in financial equity markets, other
markets are driven more by pure mathematics. The argument here goes that assets
that have identical cash flows should be priced exactly the same. Likewise,
something with a fixed future value (like a bond with known coupons every 6 months
and a return of face value at the end) should be priced today such that no advantage
is possible after discounting for costs of borrowing, storage, etc. If assets were mis-
priced, we could take advantage of this by endlessly buying the cheaper and selling
the higher.
Arbitrage opportunities in the financial markets are typically gone in milliseconds.

Thankfully, the sports markets are much less efficient and leave us with many
low risk opportunities. The most obvious is the straight arbitrage that can exist
between the bookmakers and the exchanges. As with the financial markets, you
should adjust for costs such as commission, the inconvenience of tying up your
money at a bookmaker, or the opportunity cost of possibly losing your bookmaker
account completely should you win on that side.
A dutch book is another such arbitrage opportunity where you take best price
(again, think value) on all outcomes and produce the equivalent of the bookmakers
over-round for yourself.
Finally, the bookmaker refund offers are also another analogy to APT. If you can
manufacture a 50 refund on an event that is priced at 3/1 on the exchange for a
qualifying 2 loss, then you have an arbitrage opportunity. You can buy it low from
the bookmaker and sell it high at the exchange for an arbitrage based profit, or
going back to what we discussed before, you could just treat it as a value gamble
and tilt the game further in your favour in the long term.
Lesson 3 Behavioural Biases

The final topic Ill discuss is related to psychology, and this is probably the hardest
aspect to master.
In reality, it is far easier to digest the various economic theories and master the
mathematics than it is to actually recognize and change your own behaviours.
Fundamentally, humans are quite irrational and our decision making processes are
often affected by a number of behavioral biases. Have a read through the list of
biases on Wikipedia and see how many you recognize in yourself.
Loss aversion is an interesting one in both the financial and gambling markets.
Somebody may claim that they are risk averse, when in reality they are loss
averse, and actually take on more risk in order to avoid a loss.
There is an asymmetric relationship between how we react to losses and how we

react to gains, such that we feel losses much more than gains. We see this
manifest itself where people will keep a losing position open in the hope that it will
turn around, but at risk of making a larger loss, yet the same person will close a
winning position early and lock in a reduced profit. Im not necessarily saying that
locking in small profits and risking large losses is always wrong, as things should be
evaluated on a case by case basis, but behaviours such as this can distort and
erode the value you find elsewhere.
Other biases to be careful of are overconfidence or optimism-based effects, and, if

you spend too much time on gambling forums, the fear of missing out which may
lead you to over-trade, entering into questionable positions and again eroding value.
Finally It Will Go Wrong!
Lastly, try to be aware of the probabilities and the real likelihood of both exceptionally
good and exceptionally bad runs. We are very good at misinterpreting
probabilities. The likelihood of losing a fair coin toss 5 times in a row is actually
greater than 3%. If you have a large sequence of coin tosses (say 100), the
likelihood of hitting 5 losers in a row gets quite large (Ill leave calculating the exact
probability as an exercise for the reader ).
Its interesting that faked experimental data can be identified by the absence of
sequences like this. We massively underestimate the likelihood of bad runs and
have trouble accepting them when they occur. They will happen and there is no
point getting depressed about it.
Aim to construct your portfolio so that you can weather the bad runs, concentrate
rigorously on finding value, try to be aware of any behavioural biases that may be
affecting your decisions, and try to develop a Zen-like attitude to the randomness,
and you will be well on the way to becoming a successful investor in both the world
of sport or finance.
Stu.
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CityMan Business Solutions Ltd

2. Arbitrage An Easy Place To Start

3. Betting Systems Getting Them For Free

4. Betting Systems Designing And Testing Your Own

5. The Importance Of Portfolio Betting & How To Do It

6. And Finally - Perspective On Betting

The articles are grouped into seven chapters as follows:

There are four articles in this section, trying to do just that:

Impostors and Gods The Things We Punters Have To Put Up With!

2. Arbitrage An Easy Place To Start

Sports arbitrage made easy

3. Betting Systems Getting Them For Free

5. The Importance Of Portfolio Betting, And How To Do It

6. And Finally - Perspective On Betting

in short theres more to life! But how easily we forget!

Sunshine, beach houses and perspective

Guest Post Lessons From A REAL Professional Gambler.

A famous line from Rudyard Kiplings poem If is written on the wall

If you can talk with crowds and keep your virtue,

Pretty much everything I touched just seemed to turn to gold.

Zerohype Banker levelled out after a wobble, then by Sunday returned

For somehow we sense that if we do so, we will almost certainly be tempting

I don't fancy being the Jonah in the boat !

Contrast then the way I was feeling about ZeroHype Banker in my

Just as today Triumph is telling me that Im on an unstoppable run.

So is it possible to stop this rollercoaster of emotions??

Sequences are just stories that we write in our minds.

So how to make sense of our results?

The answer has to be by assessing performance over the very long-term, in

And by just as systematically ignoring short sequences that mean absolutely

The fact is that sequences occur as an inherent feature of randomness, in

So do take a look. It really is very nice.

It is extremely easy to use and invaluable as a way of objectively assessing (and

Spreadsheet or no spreadsheet, youve gotta keep them smiling down, right?

The questionable collar aside, Frankies lyric suggests to me a rather deep-seated

Okay, w hat does Frankie Vallis love life have to do

Which in turn begs the question, w hat is an adequate

The more they claim, the less w e believe them?

So w hy exactly dont w e take action?

I propose that the answer to my conundrum is a combination of various cognitive

Belief bias a curious phenomenon where the way somebody evaluates a

One of the things that fascinates me about sports betting markets

Now, as suggested above, an obvious solution to this problem is not to bet on

There is something inherently more comfortable about backing a favourite to

Are you prepared to fly solo?

Big surprise he said he would put it on Germany to win.

His main reason?

To contemplate a bet on Italy even a lay bet would be to

And betting on favourites is all about joining the consensus.

My advice for tonights game?

Enjoy the game.

Major sporting events have a habit of producing a curious effect on fans.

Im referring to the concept of fan betting, when normally rational people

Fans Who Bet.

So Why The Cautionary Tale?

I mention it today because I sense a resurgence of this phenomenon may be

My advice therefore is, if you support a particular team such as England,

Exploiting Patriotic Bookies!

So Im 15 up, and looking forward to seeing how England perform against

Certainly not with an English bookmaker anyway!

Im conscious however that I might thoroughly have confused everyone, and

* edit *