Sustainable Cities and Society 29 (2017) 1222

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Sustainable Cities and Society

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Energy productivity evaluation of large scale building energy

efciency programs for Oman
Moncef Krarti a,b, , Kankana Dubey b
a
University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA
b
KAPSARC, Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: This paper outlines the benets of large scale energy efciency programs for new and existing buildings
Received 17 June 2016 in Oman. In particular, an energy productivity analysis for these programs is carried out to encompass
Received in revised form 4 November 2016 their overall impact for Omans economy. Over 75% of the total electricity consumed in Oman is attributed
Accepted 18 November 2016
to buildings with almost 50% is due to household. First, a comprehensive optimization analysis is carried
Available online 23 November 2016
out using whole-building energy simulation to determine the best energy efciency measures suitable
to improve the energy performance of buildings in Oman. The economic and environmental benets of
Keywords:
a wide range of energy efciency technologies are then evaluated. In particular, the impacts of differ-
Building retrots
Energy-efcient measures
ent energy efciency retrot levels of existing buildings are the estimated on the energy productivity
Energy productivity indicators for the building sector of Oman. The results of the analysis indicate that the implementation
Life cycle cost of a government funded large scale energy retrot program for the existing residential building stock is
Optimization highly cost-effective. In particular, it is found that a basic large scale energy efciency retrot program
Oman can provide a reduction of 957 GWh in annual electricity consumption and 214 MW in peak demand as
well as over 660 k-ton per year in carbon emissions.
2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
In order to assess the effectiveness of large scale energy ef-
ciency programs, energy productivity analysis approach has been
recently considered (KAPSARC, 2015). In particular, it has been
argued that energy productivity can provide better measure of
a countrys economy, energy, and environmental performance
(KAPSARC, 2014). The energy productivity for any sector of an econ-
omy such as the building sector, EPB , can be estimated as the ratio
of the value added, VAB , and the total nal energy consumption,
TFCB , attributed to the sector:
VAB
EPB =
TFCB
The energy productivity indicator, as dened by Eq. (1), can be
utilized to assess how energy resources can be allocated to optimize
the sector economic growth (KAPSARC, 2015). Based on combined
IEA and IMF data, Fig. 1 shows the annual variation of the energy
productivity of three sectors representing buildings, industry, and
transport sector in Oman (IEA, 2016; IMF, 2016). As indicated in
Corresponding author at: University of Colorado at Boulder, CO, USA.
E-mail address: krarti@colorado.edu (M. Krarti).
Fig. 1, the energy productivity for all three sectors in Oman and
thus the effectiveness of the energy resources utilization has been
generally decreasing especially since 2005.
The energy productivity metric has the advantage to account for
most of the benets attributed to energy efciency programs that
can be quantied. As outlined in Krarti (2015), signicant social,
economic, and environmental benets can incur from large scale
building energy efciency programs including savings in energy
consumption (avoided oil resources use), reduction in electrical
peak demand (avoided construction of power plants), decrease
in carbon emissions (mitigation of greenhouse gases), and cre-
ation of new job opportunities (investments that can be provided
(1) by the government initially and then can be supported by the
private sector). Moreover, enhancing energy efciency of build-
ings can provide additional non-energy benets such improved
thermal comfort, healthy indoor environment, and higher work
productivity. Recent reported studies have attempted to quantify
the non-energy benets of building energy efciency programs
(LeBaron, 2011; Hyland, Lyons, & Lyons, 2013; Skumatz, 2014;
WGBC, 2013; Russell, Baatz, Cluett, & Amann, 2015). The added
value of the non-energy benets, if it can be quantied, can fur-
ther enhance the cost effectiveness of building energy efciency
programs.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2016.11.009
2210-6707/ 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

6.0
5.0
Energy Producvity (Bn USD/Mtoe)
4.0
3.0
2.0
1.0
0.0
30,000
Annual Electricity Consumpon and Demand
25,000
GWh = 1900 (year-2008) + 13488
20,000
15,000
10,000
5,000
0 ets of clean power generation technologies including the use of
2009
Fig. 2. Variation of annual electrical consumption and peal demand between 2009
and 2014 in Oman.
Currently, there are no specic energy efciency mandatory reg-
ulations for buildings in Oman. Due to high population growth and
the lack of any comprehensive energy efciency program, electric-
ity consumption and peak demand have signicantly increased in
Oman especially during the last few years as noted in Fig. 2. In par-
ticular, the building sector consumes 77% of the total electricity
generated in Oman (OPWP, 2014). Specically, residential, com-
mercial, and governmental buildings account for respectively of
48%, 20%, and 9% of the total electricity consumed in Oman dur-
ing 2014. As illustrated in Fig. 2, a regression analysis of available
historical data indicates that there is a consistent growth of the
electrical demand over the last decade with an annual increase
of 1900 GWh for the electricity consumption and 365.7 MW for
the peak demand. If this growth remains unchanged, the annual
electricity consumption and peak demand are predicted to be
respectively, 55288 GWh and 11240 MW by 2030 (i.e., double the
current electricity demands).
In order to improve energy efciency in the building sector, the
Omani government has initiated some actions and pilot programs
to promote sustainability for the built environment (OBG, 2013;
TRC, 2014). However, very limited studies and analyses have been
published to assess the benets of improving current practices for
M. Krarti, K. Dubey / Sustainable Cities and Society 29 (2017) 1222 13
Energy Producvity - Oman
Industry Buildings Transport
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Year
Fig. 1. Annual energy productivity for three sectors for the Oman economy.
designing, constructing, and operating Omani buildings to increase
MW GWh
the energy performance of buildings. For instance, a reported anal-
ysis has investigated the potential of load management strategies
using gas cooling and ice storage systems to reduce electrical peak
R = 0.9886 demand as well as the impacts of introducing time-of-use tariffs
(JICA, 1998). Another study has indicated that implementation of
energy efcient air conditioning and lighting systems in commer-
cial and governmental buildings can reduce peak demand up to
596 MW and electricity consumption up to 44,000 GWh by 2024
(Malik, 2007). A simulation-based analysis has shown that sim-
MW = 365.66 (year-2008) + 3195.9 ple control strategies such as reducing lighting use by 25% and
R = 0.9605 increasing the cooling temperature from 20 C to 24 C can pro-
vide savings of 25.6% in annual energy consumption for an Omani
building (Mallela, Solanki, & Al-Harasi, 2010). Similarly, the ben-
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
renewable energy resources to generate electricity in Oman have
Year
been evaluated by few studies. In particular, potential energy sav-
ings of 335 GWh have been estimated from a large scale installation
of solar water heaters in the Seeb district (Gastli & Charabi, 2011).
In general, it is found that Oman has signicant solar and wind
energy resources that can be harnessed to generate enough elec-
tricity to meet all the national needs (Al-Badi, 2011a,b; Gastli &
Charabi, 2010; Malik & Al-Badi, 2009; Solanki, Mallela, & Zhou,
2013; Al Hatmi, Tan, AlBadi, & Charabi, 2014). However, the lack
of incentives and legal framework are the main barriers of the lim-
ited deployment of both energy efciency and renewable energy
technologies in Oman. Through a survey of the Omani construc-
tion stakeholders, the main challenges to promote energy efciency
technologies and practices in the building sector have been identi-
ed and include (Saleh & Alalouch, 2015):
1. Economic challenges due to higher costs associated with energy
efcient products including thermal insulation for building
envelope systems. Indeed, most of these products are not man-
ufactured locally and have to be imported. Moreover, the high
energy subsidies make any investment in energy efciency not
a cost-effective strategy for building owners or developers (Al-
Badi, Malik, & Gastli, 2015; Powmya & Abidin, 2014).
2. Lack of knowledge and expertise on sustainable construction
practices has been identied as one of the barriers in promot-
ing high performance buildings in Oman. In addition to lack of
any codes and standards to promote energy efciency in the
14 M. Krarti, K. Dubey / Sustainable Cities and Society 29 (2017) 1222

Fig. 3. (a) 3-D Rendering for energy model and (b) annual energy end-use distribution for a prototypical villa in Muscat, Oman.

building sector, the Omani construction industry relies on for-

eign workforce with limited knowledge of green technologies
and materials (Al-Badi et al., 2015; Powmya & Abidin, 2014).
3. Social challenges due to resistance from various building sector
stakeholders to change the conventional construction methods
in order to follow more sustainable practices. These challenges
are made more engrained due to the lack of any legal and eco-
nomic incentives to promote high energy performance buildings
(Al-Badi et al., 2015; Powmya & Abidin, 2014).

In this paper, the impacts of large scale building energy

efciency programs in Oman are evaluated using the energy pro-
ductivity analysis approach. Energy efciency programs targeting
both new and existing building are considered in the study. As part
of the analysis, the benets of implementing a wide range of energy
efciency measures are rst determined using a whole-building
energy simulation analysis applied to energy models representing
the Omani existing building stock. In particular, an optimization
analysis is carried out to determine the best energy efciency mea-
sures suitable to improve the energy performance for prototypical
building energy models in Oman. Economic and environmental
benets of a wide range of energy efciency programs are then
quantied for the Omani building stock using a bottom-up analy-
sis approach. In particular, the impacts of developing and enforcing
new building energy efciency codes are evaluated. In addition, dif-
ferent retrot levels of existing buildings are considered. Finally,
the implementation costs and the impacts of the energy efciency
programs on the energy productivity for Oman building sector are
evaluated.
Fig. 4. Monthly electricity consumption versus (a) monthly degree-days and (b)
monthly average ambient temperature for Oman in 2014.
2. Analysis of building energy efciency measures

2.1. Baseline energy models for prototypical buildings
Using the bottom-up approach to evaluate the impacts and ben-
ets of a wide range of energy efciency measures on the electricity
consumption of the building sector, energy models are developed
and utilized to represent the existing building stock in Oman.
Specically, three energy models for residential buildings are estab-
lished representing: a 2-story villa, a 5-story apartment building,
and a 1-story traditional house. Moreover, three energy models for
commercial and governmental buildings are considered: an ofce
building, a school, and a retail store. The characteristics of the
baseline energy models for all the building prototypes are dened
using data collected from reported energy audit studies (Alaidroos
& Krarti, 2015; Ameer & Krarti, 2016; Malik, 2007; Mallela et al.,
2010; Radhi, Eltrapolsi, & Sharples, 2009). The building specica-
tions for various prototypical building energy models are provided
in Table 1. The energy analysis to assess the impact of several energy
efciency measures on both annual energy consumption and peak
demands is carried using a whole-building simulation analysis and
hourly weather data for Muscat (EnergyPlus, 2015).
As expected air conditioning to maintain indoor thermal com-
fort is responsible for most of the electricity used in buildings.
For instance, cooling energy end-use represents 75% of the total
annual electricity consumed by the prototypical villa model located
in Muscat as noted in Fig. 3 based on the results of a whole-building
simulation analysis. Similar results are found for the other proto-
typical building energy models dened in Table 1.
Using monthly historical data for 2014, the impact of air condi-
tioning to cool buildings on the monthly total electricity consumed
in Oman can be established by using a regression analysis with
either cooling degree-days or average ambient outdoor temper-
atures as shown in Fig. 4(a) and (b), respectively (Krarti, 2012).
The monthly base-load electricity consumption associated to elec-
tricity needs for operating industrial facilities as well as buildings
 M. Krarti, K. Dubey / Sustainable Cities and Society 29 (2017) 1222 15

Table 1
Building construction specications for the prototypical villa.

Building Model Villa Apartment Traditional House Ofce Building School Retail Store
Building

Number of Floors 2 5 1 4 1 1
Total Floor Area 525 m2 3750 m2 200 m2 11600 m2 7000 m2 1400 m2
Wall Construction 20 mm plaster 200 mm light
outside + 200 mm concrete + 20 mm
concrete hollow plaster inside
block + 20 mm plaster
inside
Roof Construction 10 mm built-up 10 mm built-up
roong + 150 mm roong + 200 mm
concrete roof concrete roof
slab + 12.7 mm plaster slab + 12.7 mm plaster
inside inside
Glazing Single-Clear with Single-Clear With
Wood Frames Aluminum Frames
Window-to-Wall Rtio 10% 10% 10% 20% 10% 20%
Inltration 0.84 ACH 0.84 ACH 0.84 ACH 0.60 ACH 0.70 ACH 0.60 ACH
(Perimeter only) (Perimeter only)
Cooling Set Point 24 C 24 C 24 C 23 C 24 C 23 C
(75.2 F) (75.2 F) (75.2 F) (73.4 F) (78.8 F) (73.4 F)
HVAC System Split DX Roof-Top AC Window Central with VAV Roof-Top Roof-Top
HVAC COP/EER COP = 2.5 2.5 2.5 EER = 8.5 EER-4.5 4.5
Occupancy Period 24-h/day 24-h/day 24-h/day 8:0016:00 7:0017:00 8:0023:00
(week-days) (week-days) (daily)

equipment, appliances, and lighting is estimated to be 969 GWh
as illustrated in Fig. 4(a). Meanwhile, building air conditioning
energy consumption increases with outdoor air temperature espe-
cially during summer months. In particular, Fig. 4(b) indicates that
monthly electrical energy consumption tripled from 1000 GWh
observed in February to 3000 GWh set in July (OPWP, 2014).
2.2. Impact of individual EE measures
In order to determine the impacts of a wide range of design
and operating energy efciency measures on annual energy con-
sumption as well as on electrical peak demand for the prototypical
building energy models outlined in Table 1, a comprehensive para-
metric analysis is carried out using weather data of Muscat. As
an illustrative example of the analysis results, Figs. 5 and 6 show
the percent variations in respectively, annual energy consumption
and electrical peak demand associated with select energy ef-
ciency measures considered for the baseline villa energy model.
As expected, installing energy efcient air conditioning system has
the most signicant impact to reduce both annual energy consump-
tion and peak demand. The measure that has the second signicant
impact is (i) setting the cooling temperature at 26 C (79 F) instead
of 24 C (75 F) for reducing energy consumption and (ii) reducing
air inltration to make the building shell air tight for decreasing the
peak demand. Generally, measures that can reduce annual energy
consumption are also effective in lowering electrical peak demand.
2.3. Impact of combined EE measures
In order to determine the best energy efciency measures to
implement for residential and commercial buildings, life cycle
cost based optimization analysis is carried out for each building
energy model considered in Table 1. The optimization analysis
is performed using the sequential search technique described
by Alaidroos and Krarti (2015). The reported production cost of
$0.08347/kWh for generating electricity in Oman is considered in
the optimization analysis (AER, 2014). Implementation costs of var-
ious energy efciency measures are obtained from various sources
(Alaidroos & Krarti, 2015; Ameer & Krarti, 2016; Krarti & Ihm,
2016). Fig. 7 represents the Pareto graph obtained from the opti-
mization results indicating the optimal path to achieve net-zero
energy building design or retrot for the prototypical villa in Mus-
cat, Oman. For the analysis outlined in Fig. 7, the PV solar system
implementation cost is assumed to be $4.5/W (NREL, 2016). The
life-cycle cost optimization analysis results indicate that optimal
cost-effective designs or retrots can achieve reduction of about
61% in total energy consumption and 64% in peak electrical demand
for the prototypical 2-story villa. The optimal set of energy ef-
ciency measures as well as the associated savings in annual energy
consumption and peak demand for all the prototypical buildings
are summarized in Table 2. In particular, savings ranging from 53%
to 68% can be achieved for both annual energy consumption and
electrical peak demand for all residential and commercial building
energy models.
3. Evaluation of benets of energy efciency programs
3.1. Energy efciency programs for new buildings
3.1.1. Thermal insulation requirements
As noted earlier, there are no specic mandatory energy conser-
vation requirements for buildings in Oman. If thermal insulation for
walls and roofs as well as better glazing for windows are required
for new buildings, an estimated reduction of annual energy con-
sumption of at least 25% reduction in energy consumption and
electrical peak demand can be achieved based on the parametric
analysis results obtained for the buildings listed in Table 1. Using
the same bottom-up analysis carried by Krarti (2015), the economic
and environmental benets of the thermal insulation requirements
on new buildings can be estimated as summarized in Table 3.
The carbon emissions for generating electricity are assumed to be
0.690 kg CO2 /kWh and the cost of a power plan is estimated to be
$1700/kW. It is estimated that new buildings represent 6% of the
existing building stock estimated for 2014.
3.1.2. Comprehensive energy efciency requirements
Using the results of the optimization analysis illustrated in Fig. 7
and Table 2, a more stringent building energy efciency regula-
tions can be developed and adopted in Oman for all new buildings.
The impact of this stringent code is assumed to be 50% savings in
both energy consumption and peak demand associated with the
new building stock. These savings are set lower than the potential
16 M. Krarti, K. Dubey / Sustainable Cities and Society 29 (2017) 1222

Fig. 5. Impact of each EEM on energy savings for a villa located Muscat, Oman.

Fig. 6. Impact of each EEM on peak demand for a villa located in Muscat, Oman.
 M. Krarti, K. Dubey / Sustainable Cities and Society 29 (2017) 1222 17

Fig. 7. Optimization analysis showing energy savings vs. life cycle cost for a 2-story villa in Muscat, Oman.

Table 2
List of optimal design and operating strategies and potential energy use and peak demand savings for prototypical buildings in Muscat, Oman.

EEM 2-story Villa 5-story Apartment 1-story Traditional 4-story Ofce 1-story School 1-story Retail Store
(525 m2 ) Building House Building (7000 m2 ) (1400 m2 )
(3750 m2 ) (200 m2 ) (7000 m2 )

Wall insulation RSI-3.0 RSI-3.0 RSI-3.0 RSI-3.0 RSI-3.0 RSI-3.0

(R-17.0) (R-17.0) (R-17.0) (R-17.0) (R-17.0) (R-17.0)
Polystyrene Polystyrene Polystyrene Polystyrene Polystyrene Polystyrene
Roof insulation RSI-4.0 RSI-4.0 RSI-4.0 RSI-4.0 RSI-4.0 RSI-4.0
(R-22.7) (R-22.7) (R-22.7) (R-22.7) (R-22.7) (R-22.7)
Polystyrene Polystyrene Polystyrene Polystyrene Polystyrene Polystyrene
Glazing Double Low-e Double Low-e Double Low-e Double Low-e Double Low-e Double Low-e
Shading Projection 0.5 m Projection 0.5 m Projection 0.5 m Projection 0.5 m Projection 0.5 m Projection 0.5 m
Lighting 70% Reduction 70% Reduction 70% Reduction 50% Reduction 50% Reduction 50% Reduction
Daylighting No No No Dimming Controls No Dimming Controls
Inltration 75% 75% 75% 75% 75% 75%
Reduction = 0.21 Reduction = 0.21 Reduction = 0.21 Reduction = 0.21 Reduction = 0.21 Reduction = 0.21
ACH ACH ACH ACH ACH ACH
Cooling Set Point 26 C 26 C 26 C 26 C 26 C 26 C
(78.8 F) (78.8 F) (78.8 F) (78.8 F) (78.8 F) (78.8 F)
Appliances Efcient Efcient Efcient Energy Star Energy Star Efcient
Refrigerator Refrigerator Refrigerator Appliances Appliances Equipment
45% Reduction 45% Reduction 45% Reduction 40% Reduction 40% Reduction 35% Reduction
Air Economizer No No No Yes Yes Yes
HVAC COP 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5
Baseline Total Energy Use (kWh) 98,812 651,070 36,926 2,322,100 1,410,400 412,550
Total Energy Use (kWh) 38,214 263,040 13,849 1,028,400 610,030 141,720
Total Energy Savings 61.3% 59.6% 62.5% 55.7% 56.8% 65.7%
Baseline Peak Demand (kW) 38.0 214.4 13.2 1055 623 168
Case Peak Demand (kW) 11.1 80.3 4.2 491 284 66
Peak Demand Savings 64.2% 62.6% 68.1% 53.4% 54.3% 65.9%

Table 3
Economic and environmental benets for requiring better insulated building envelope systems for all new buildings in Oman based on 2014 building stock estimates.

Building Type Annual Energy Use Peak Demand Annual CO2 Emissions Annual Energy Cost Peak Demand Savings
Savings Savings Savings Savings ($ Million)
(GWh/yr) (MW) (103 Tons/yr) ($ Million/yr)

Residential Buildings 179 40 124 15 68

Commercial Buildings 76 17 37 6 29
Governmental Buildings 55 12 27 5 20

Total 310 69 188 26 117

Table 4
Economic and environmental benets for implementing a stringent building energy efciency code for all new buildings in Oman based on 2014 building stock estimates.

Building Type Annual Energy Use Peak Demand Annual CO2 Emissions Annual Energy Cost Peak Demand
Savings Savings Savings Savings Savings
(GWh/yr) (MW) (103 Tons/yr) ($ Million/yr) ($ Million)

Residential Buildings 359 80 248 30 136

Commercial Buildings 152 34 75 13 58
Governmental Buildings 109 24 54 9 41

Total 620 139 377 52 236

18 M. Krarti, K. Dubey / Sustainable Cities and Society 29 (2017) 1222

Table 5
Options for energy efciency measures specic to three retrot levels of Omani residential buildings.

RecommendedOptions Retrot Description (a) Retrot Level for Residential Buildings

Level-1 Level-2 Level-3

1. List of EEMs EEM-1 EEM-1, EEM-1, EEM-2, EEM-3, and

EEM-2, and EEM-3 EEM-4
Energy Use Savings 12% 28% 54%
Range of reduction in savings 06% 06% 06%
due to behavioral and rebound
effects (b)

2. List of EEMs EEM-2 EEM-4 EEM-2, EEM-3, and

EEM-6
Energy Use Savings 10.0% 29% 51.0%
Range of reduction in savings 04% 04% 04%
due to behavioral and rebound
effects (b)

3. List of EEMs EEM-3 EEM-5 EEM-5, and

EEM-6
Energy Use Savings 10% 28% 52%
Range of reduction in savings 04% 06% 06%
due to behavioral and rebound
effects (b)

Notes: (a) Description of EEMs:

EEM-1: Increase the cooling set from 21 C to 23 C, from 22 C to 24 C, or from 23 C to 25 C depending on the existing operating conditions.
EEM-2: Replace existing lighting xtures by LEDs.
EEM-3: Seal air leakage sources around building envelope (i.e., window and door frames so ACH = 0.21).
EEM-4: Replace the existing AC unit by high efciency system (COP = 4.0).
EEM-5: Better lighting controls including dimming daylighting and occupancy sensors for commercial buildings.
EEM-6: Insulate the roof using RSI-3.
(b) The behavioral and rebound effects are estimated based on previous studies. Typically, the effects are higher for measures that rely on temperature and lighting controls
(i.e., EEM-1 and EEM-5).

levels that could be achieved for all building prototypes as indi-
cated Table 2. The conservative values are considered to account
for behavioral variations including some rebound effects (Majcen,
Itard, & Visscher, 2013; Jacobsen & Kotchen, 2013). The benets of a
comprehensive building energy efciency code applied to the new
buildings are estimated and are summarized as shown in Table 4
3.2. Energy retrots for existing buildings
Three levels of energy efciency building retrots are suggested
for the Sultanate of Oman with different economic and environ-
mental benets (ASHRAE, 2011; Hong et al., 2015; Krarti, 2015):
Level-1 of energy efciency retrot: involving low-cost energy
efciency measures such installation of programmable ther-
mostats, use of CLF or LED lighting xtures, and weatherization
of building shell to reduce air inltration. As detailed in Table 5,
the estimated average savings from a level-1 retrot program
are 8% for all building types based on the simulation analysis car-
ried for this study as well as case studies reported for residential,
commercial, and governmental buildings.
Level-2 of energy efciency retrot: including use of energy
efcient cooling systems as well as temperature and lighting con-
trols. Based on the simulation results obtained in this study as
noted in Table 5 and conrmed by the reported ndings in the
exiting literature, average savings of 23% can be achieved for
level-2 retrots for all building types (Ameer & Krarti, 2016; Hong
et al., 2015).
Level-3 of energy efciency retrot: requiring the implemen-
tation of capital-intensive measures including addition of roof
thermal insulation, cooling system replacement, and installation
of daylighting control systems. While, deep retrots are typically
costly, they can provide signicant energy use savings exceeding
50% as noted in the simulation analysis results outlined in Table 5.
Table 5 provides specic packages of simple yet proven energy
efciency measures that can be considered for the three building
energy retrot levels using the results of the simulation analysis
carried out for this study. The potential annual energy use sav-
ings for each package is provided in Table 5. Moreover, ranges for
the rebound effects associated with changes in occupant behav-
iors are estimated for each energy efciency package and building
retrot level using results from reported analyses (Borenstein,
2015; Jacobsen & Kotchen, 2013; Majcen et al., 2013).
As noted earlier, the economic benets of the building energy
efciency retrot programs are estimated using the actual cost of
32.4 Bz/kWh required for generating and distributing electricity
(i.e., $0.08347/kWh) rather than the average subsidized price of
15.7 Bz/kWh (i.e., $0.040/KWh) using the reported AER data (AER,
2014). Moreover, the environmental benets are estimated using
an average carbon emission factor of 690 g CO2 /kWh for Oman
(Solanki et al., 2013). Table 6 summarizes the annual CO2 emis-
sions savings (associated with reducing the amount of fuel needed
to generate electricity), annual energy cost savings (associated with
using less fuel to generate electricity), and the peak demand savings
(associated with avoiding the construction of new power plants)
for level-1, level-2, and level-3 building energy efciency retrot
programs in Oman. As clearly shown in Table 6, signicant eco-
nomic and environmental benets can be achieved for all the levels
of the building energy retrot programs. While requiring higher
implementation costs, Higher benets can be achieved for level-2
and level-3 retrot programs can achieve larger savings and more
benets compared to level-1 retrot program. The economic and
environmental benets that can be realized for residential build-
ings are signicantly higher than those obtained for commercial or
governmental buildings for all energy retrot levels. Indeed, over
58% of the benets can be achieved by solely retrotting residential
buildings in Oman as indicated in Table 6.
It is expected that the implementation of the large scale building
energy efciency retrot programs to be gradual requiring several
years due to main reasons: (i) the signicant investments needed
 M. Krarti, K. Dubey / Sustainable Cities and Society 29 (2017) 1222 19

Table 6 Table 8
Economic and environmental benets for three levels of building energy efciency Average costs expressed in US$ for energy retrots of buildings in Oman.
retrot programs for Oman based on 2014 building stock estimates.
Building Type Level-1 Level-2 Level-3
Retrot Program Level-1 Level-2 Level-3
Residential Buildings 250 2500 5000
Annual Energy Savings (GWh/year) Commercial Buildings 5000 25,000 50,000
Residential Buildings 957 2751 5980 Governmental Buildings 10,000 50,000 100,000
Commercial Buildings 404 1162 2525
Governmental Buildings 291 836 1817
ing 2015 (AER, 2014). Overall, IMF has estimated that during 2015
Total Existing Building Stock 1652 4748 10322
the total energy subsidies amount to $7.27 billion or 8.9% of the
Peak Demand Savings (MW) Omani GDP (IMF, 2016).
Residential Buildings 214 616 1339
The cost-effectiveness of implementing large scale energy ef-
Commercial Buildings 90 260 565
Governmental Buildings 65 187 407 ciency programs for existing buildings are estimated in this study
from the perspective of the Omani government. Indeed, investing
Total Existing Building Stock 370 1063 2311 in energy efciency measures are generally not cost-effective for
Annual CO2 Savings (kilo-Tons/year) building owners due to highly subsidized energy prices. As dis-
Residential Buildings 660 1898 4126 cussed earlier, the overall economic, environmental, and social
Commercial Buildings 200 574 1247 benets of the energy retrot programs are signicant for Oman
Governmental Buildings 144 413 898
and therefore their cost-effectiveness should be evaluated from the
Total Existing Building Stock 1003 2885 6271 perspective of the government of Oman. First, the costs needed
to fully implement the three building energy efciency retrot
Annual Avoided Fuel Costs ($Million/year)
programs are estimated. Then, the cost-effectiveness analysis of
Residential Buildings 80 230 499
Commercial Buildings 34 97 211 the energy efciency retrot programs is carried out for various
Governmental Buildings 24 70 152 building types. Finally, the job creation potential required for the
implementation of the energy retrot programs is also determined
Total Existing Building Stock 138 396 862
and discussed in this section.
Avoided Power Plants Costs ($Million)
Residential Buildings 364 1047 2276
4.1. Cost-effectiveness analysis
Commercial Buildings 153 442 961
Governmental Buildings 111 318 692
The specic implementation costs for the building energy
Total Existing Building Stock 628 1807 3929 retrots depend on several factors including the building size and
the physical conditions of the building energy systems. Based on
various sources including cost of labor and materials in the GCC
Table 7
Electricity prices for Omani residential, governmental, and commercial buildings. region, the average costs of completing energy retrot for build-
ings are estimated (Ameer & Krarti, 2015; Krarti & Ihm, 2016; Krarti,
Commercial Buildings (Flat rate) 20 BZ/kWh ($0.05194/kWh)
2012, 2015). Table 8 summarizes the implementation costs for all
Residences/Government Buildings
three level of energy retrot programs specic to residential and
03000 kWh 10 Bz/kWh ($0.026/kWh) commercial buildings including costs for performing energy audits
30015000 kWh 15 Bz/kWh ($0.039/kWh)
50017000 kWh 20 Bz/kWh ($0.052/kWh)
as well as for installing any recommended energy efciency mea-
700110,000 kWh 25 Bz/kWh ($0.065/kWh) sures.
10,000+ kWh 30 Bz/kWh ($0.078/kWh) The cost benet analysis for the building energy efciency
retrot programs to upgrade the existing buildings in Oman are
estimated using the latest available building stock statistics (NCSI,
for renovating the entire existing building stock as estimated in 2015). The results, summarized in Table 9, indicate that the three
the Cost-Effectiveness Analysis section, and (ii) the lack of qualied levels of energy retrot programs are highly cost-effective when
energy efciency contractors in Oman as discussed in the Job Cre- deployed for the residential buildings. In fact, the implementa-
ation section. However, any of the three energy retrot programs tion costs for level-1 retrot program would be recovered from the
can result in signicant economic and environmental benets for avoided costs of building new power plants to generate electricity
Oman even when only a small fraction of the existing stock is tar- needed to meet the energy requirements of households if no energy
geted. efciency actions are taken. The payback periods for all three
retrot levels are found to be long for commercial and governmen-
4. Program implementation considerations tal buildings most likely due to the high estimated implementation
costs of energy efciency measures for these buildings. It is there-
Energy prices are highly subsidized in Oman. Table 7 shows the fore, highly recommended that a retrot program be developed
current electricity prices for residential, governmental, and com- rst by the Omani government to improve the energy efciency of
mercial customers in Oman. While the commercial customers have the existing residential building stock as summarized in Table 9.
a at rate of $0.05194/kWh, the residential and governmental cus-
tomers are charged based on the level of their consumption ranging 4.2. Estimation of job creation and market potential of EE
from a low of $0.026/kWh to $0.078/kWh. The Omani Authority for industry
Electricity Regulation has estimated that the average price charged
to all its customers is 15.7 Baiza/kWh ($0.0408/kWh) during 2014 The other economic impact of the building energy efciency
(AER, 2014). Since the minimal economic cost for generating elec- retrot programs is the potential to create new jobs in Oman. As
tricity is reported to be 25.3 Baiza/kWh (i.e., $0.0743/kWh) for 2014, outlined by Pollin, Heintz and Garrett-Peltier (2009), Hyland et al.
the Omani government provides subsidies of about 9.7 Baiza/kWh (2013) and Krarti (2015), the direct effects for retrotting buildings
($0.0252/kWh) or 38% the economic cost of generating electricity. include jobs needed to implement the energy efciency measures
The subsidies level is estimated to be even higher reaching 46% dur- while the indirect effects are associated with jobs needed to pro-
20 M. Krarti, K. Dubey / Sustainable Cities and Society 29 (2017) 1222

Table 9 Table 10
Cost-effectiveness analysis of three energy efciency retrot programs in Oman. Number of Job Years that can be created from a building energy retrot program in
Oman.
Retrot Program Level-1 Level-2 Level-3
Building Type Level-1 Level-2 Level-3
Implementation Program Costs ($Million)
Residential Buildings 174 1739 3477 Residential 2071 20694 41376
Commercial Buildings 581 2906 5881 Commercial 6914 34581 69984
Governmental Buildings 278 1391 2781 Governmental 3308 16553 33094

Total 12293 71817 143633

Total Existing Building Stock 1033 6035 12070

Annual Avoided Fuel Costs ($Million/year)

Residential Buildings 80 230 499 jobs. The direct jobs are those required to audit and implement
Commercial Buildings 34 97 211
energy efciency measures in the buildings while the indirect jobs
Governmental Buildings 24 70 152
are associated to producing and supplying energy efciency equip-
Total Existing Building Stock 138 396 862 ment and materials (Pollin et al., 2009). For the case of Oman, up to
Avoided Power Plants Costs ($Million)
41,376 new job-years can be created when renovating the existing
Residential Buildings 364 1047 2276 residential building stock using level-3 retrot option as illustrated
Commercial Buildings 153 442 961 in Table 10. When the entire building stock is considered, up to
Governmental Buildings 111 318 692 143,633 job-years would be created to implement level-3 retrot
program. In particular, if level-3 energy efciency retrot program
Total Existing Building Stock 628 1807 3929
is implemented during a 10-year period, 14,363 jobs per year can
Payback Period (years) be created.
Residential Buildings 0 3.0 2.4
Commercial Buildings 12.6 25.4 23.3
Governmental Buildings 7.0 15.3 13.7 5. Energy productivity analysis

Total Existing Building Stock
duce and supply energy efciency equipment and materials. Most
of the jobs created for building retrots are within the construction
and manufacturing industries with a wide range of pay level and
technical specialization including electricians, HVAC technicians,
insulation installers, energy auditors, building inspectors, and con-
struction managers.
Using the job creation model considered in the analysis per-
formed by Krarti (2015), $1.0 million investment in building energy
retrot can create 11.9 job-years with 7.0 direct and 4.9 indirect
2.9 10.7 9.4 In order to determine the cumulative impacts of the benets
that can be incurred from building energy efciency programs, the
monetary values of these benets are estimated and accounted for
as part of the energy productivity analysis outlined in the Introduc-
tion section. Specically, three main benets are considered for the
three levels of energy retrot programs proposed for the existing
building stock in Oman including:
Energy consumption reduction resulting in two impacts on the
energy productivity of the Omani building sector as dened by Eq.
(1): (i) the reduction in nal energy consumption, TFCB , and (ii)
the increase in value added, VAB , associated with the avoided cost

Building Sector Energy Producvity for Oman

Retrot Program for Enre Building Stock
4
Baseline Level-1 Retrot Level-2 Retrot Level-3 Retrot

3.5

3
Energy Producvity ($ Billions/TOE)

2.5

1.5

0.5

0
Reducon in Energy Avoided Oil Avoided Oil Avoided Oil All Benets Included
Consumpon with No Consumpon Consumpon and Consumpon, Carbon with Government
change in Value Added Carbon Emissions Emissions, and Power Funding Used
Plants

Fig. 8. Impact on Omani building sector energy productivity for three retrot programs of the entire building stock.

4
3.5
Energy Producvity (USD Bllion/MTOE)
3
2.5
1.5
0.5
0
2016
Fig. 9. Annual progression for Omani building sector energy productivity for three retrot programs of the entire building stock during a 20-year implementation period.
of oil required to generate electricity. To estimate the value added
of avoided oil consumption, oil price of $45/barre, oil production
cost in Oman of $5.3/barrel (Knoema, 2016), and an average ef-
ciency of 36% for electricity power plants (IEA, 2012) are utilized.
Electrical peak demand reduction lowering the number of power
plants required to deploy to meet future energy needs of the
building sector. An average cost of $1700/kW is considered to
estimate the increase in added value, VAB , due to the avoided
power plant capacities (ECRA, 2015).
Carbon emission reduction due to decreasing the need to com-
bust oil or gas to generate electricity in power plants. A value of
$10/ton is used to estimate the increase in added value, VAB , due
to the lower carbon emissions (EPA, 2016; Russell et al., 2015).
Fig. 8 shows the effects of the three levels of energy retrot pro-
grams, considered in this study, on the energy productivity for the
Omani building sector. The impacts of the benets outlined above
on the building sector energy productivity are evaluated gradually
for the three retrot programs. When accounting for only the sav-
ings in energy consumption, without accounting for the potential
monetary added value of avoided oil use, the energy productiv-
ity can be increased by up to 75% when level-3 retrot program is
applied to the building stock. However, when considering all the
benets and their added values assuming the private sector can
provide the necessary investments needed for the programs imple-
mentation, the energy productivity can be doubled when the entire
building stock is retrotted. When the government nances the
entire retrot programs, the energy productivity can be increased
by up to 160% for the entire building stock. Fig. 9 illustrates the
progression of the building sector energy productivity when all
the benets are considered for the three retrot levels when the
implementation period is set for 20 years (so that each year 5% of
the building stock is retrotted) with a 2-year start-up period for
building capacity of energy auditors and planning of the implemen-
tation phase. As shown in Fig. 9, level 3 retrot program provides
the best option to increase the energy productivity of the Omani
building sector. It should be noted that the sole implementation of
mandatory of building energy efciency codes for new buildings
M. Krarti, K. Dubey / Sustainable Cities and Society 29 (2017) 1222 21
Annual Building Sector Energy Producvity
Impact of Building Energy Retrot Programs
Level-1 Level-2 Level-3
2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036
Year
increases incrementally but slightly the energy productivity of the
Omani building sector by up to 4% when a comprehensive set of
requirements is considered and up to 2% when thermal insulation
is only required for walls and roofs.
6. Summary and conclusions
The analysis outlined in this paper indicates that improving
the energy efciency of the building stock in Oman has several
benets including reduction in electricity consumption, electrical
peak demands, carbon emissions, as well as the creation of a siz-
able number of employment opportunities. In particular, it is found
that a level 1 energy retrot of residential buildings is highly cost-
effective even when the Omani government has to nance the
implementation costs for all existing households. Indeed, level 1
energy retrot program when applied to the existing Omani res-
idential building stock could achieve savings of 957 GWh/year in
electricity consumption, 214 MW, in electrical peak demand, and
660 k-tons/year in carbon emissions. Moreover, the analysis sum-
marized in this paper indicates that a large scale energy retrot
program for the residential buildings can create signicant number
of jobs in Oman with up to 41,376 full time job-years. Over 143,633
job-years are estimated if all the building stock is retrotted. When
all the benets are considered, the analysis has indicated that level-
3 retrot program has the highest impact and can double the energy
productivity of the Omani building sector allowing to release signif-
icant funds from avoided oil revenues and power plant investments
that can be utilized for other government programs.
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