Professional Documents
Culture Documents
com/capitalprojectsandinfrastructure
November 2013
Whats inside:
Impact management:
creating and sustaining
value.
p 10
Propensity to fly in
emerging economies:
Implications for
infrastructure investment.
p 27
Airport transactions:
Taking off around theglobe.
p 35
Airlines and airports today are
looking at an uncertain future.
As the global economy slowly emerges A clear theme of this updated do that, theyll have to deepen their
from the impact of the global financial compendium is an exploration of the understanding of the aviation sector
crisis, aviation sector players face a key impacts of the new normal and on several key frontsincluding what
new world where they can longer ideas for how best to cope with its government stakeholders want to get
count on cheap financing or cheap challenges. For example, youll read out of an airport; how to reduce costs
fuel. Equally challenging, it is difficult about how airlines are overhauling their and develop new business in an age of
to identify where the new sources business models to survive in a newly uncertainty and resource constraints;
of growth will be, whether it is the competitive and dynamic market and how to assess the nuanced risks
BRICS, or further afield, in markets and what that means for airports and and opportunities arising in emerging
such as Turkey or Indonesia. thus investors. And youll see how markets aviation sectors.
new players arising in the aviation
This world of uncertainty isnt just The good news is that the
infrastructure investment space may
a one-off experience that the sector opportunities are out there, despite
be better equipped for the game than
must get through before things can the worldwide economic downturn,
players of yesterday. The inputs of
return to previous trends. Its the new and that most airports are still making
growth are also examined, whether
normalhere to stay, for a while at money. By understanding the new
it be in the risks associated with new
least. And instead of planning for a new landscape, investors can identify the
airport projects, or the increasing
phase of constant straight line growth, most promising of those opportunities,
clarity of the governments approach to
sector players will need a strategy manage the risks, and shorten the
carbon and emissions.
for operating within this new set of odds of gaining the best returns.
conditions. Investors of all types will need to
Yours truly,
adjust their strategies to ink the
best deals in the new normal. To
Michael Burns
Partner, PwC
As the major western economies With strong growth outside the West
emerge from the turmoil of the global pushing up energy and energy and
financial crisis, we find ourselves in a commodity prices, we are living in
strange and uncertain world. a world of relatively high inflation.
And volatility in financial markets
Growth rates are disappointing,
is continuing to add to uncertainty
relative to the experience before
about economic prospects and access
2007. In the UK, economic growth
tofinance.
averaged 3% per annum from 1982
until 2007, more than doubling the These are all features of a new
size of our economy in 25 years. The normal economy which reflects
only comparable period of sustained three big changes in the economic
UK economic growth was the post-war environment from the world we were
golden age of the 1950s and 1960s. living in before the financial crisis.
But since the trough of the recession
The first change is in the financial
in 2009, UK economic growth has
system. From the 1980s until 2007,
averaged not much more than 1%
western economies enjoyed an era of
perannum.
easy money. The operation of a highly
Other major western economies are deregulated and liberalised global
also struggling. In the three years financial system provided consumers
20112013, US economic growth and businesses with relatively easy
is set to average under 2% and the access to finance and allowed a
euro area has struggled to register build-up of debt. Now, banks have
any growth at all. Emerging and become much more cautious and their
developing economiesby contrast reluctance to lend is being reinforced
are performing much more strongly. by new regulatory requirements.
Even though growth has slowed down
The second change is affecting the
in some of the emerging superpowers
cost of imports. From the mid-1980s
like China and India, the International
when oil prices fell sharplyuntil
Monetary Fund (IMF) is still projecting
the mid-2000s, western consumers
growth of 4.55% in the emerging and
benefited from an environment of
developing world this year and next.
cheap imports from the rest of the
world. Energy and other commodity
8
When airport proyects fly off course PwC | The new normal for airport investment
8
Its wise to include in the
contract the dispute resolution
mechanisms, such as mediation
or arbitration, which will be used
in case theres a conflict over
changes and increased costs.
even more complex by the extensive Its also wise to include in the contract Next steps
network of technologies within an the dispute resolution mechanisms, Airport operators and engineering
airport. So much technical change is such as mediation or arbitration, and construction firms will no doubt
possible during an airport construction which will be used in case theres a face more, not less change in the air
project that the risks can be quite conflict over changes and increased travel business in the coming years.
high and the likelihood of disputes costs. That way, the parties spend any They also will be working increasingly
much greater than with other types expense and time on resolving the in less developed countries, where
of infrastructure projects. While a conflict rather than figuring out the disputes are more likely than in mature
toll road involves some technologies, procedure for settling it. markets. Consequently, they need
its much less complicated than to become more flexible and more
Owners and contractors also may want
an airports host of technologies, sophisticated to thrive in this volatile
to select in advance an adviser that can
including navigation, radar, baggage climate. Simply put, the better they
do a thorough quantitative analysis
management, communication, can anticipate and plan for changes
in case of a dispute. When a new
reservation, and check-in systems. in air travel demand and shifts within
airport was being built in Hong Kong,
Finally, its usually preferable to build it turned out that the specifications the airline industry, the more likely
the kind of airport structures that for the terminals roof tiles were they are to avoid major adjustments to
have been done successfully in the extremely tight, causing problems projects and thorny, costly disputes.
past. One-of-a-kind terminals may with the construction tolerances and
About the author: Anthony Morgan leads
be visually exciting and add to an requiring reworking. That resulted in
PwCs construction dispute resolution practice
airports allure, but they also invite a a disruption claim against the owner in EMEA and regularly acts as an independent
multitude of potential problems and in which the contractor retained expert on the project management of large
disputes during construction. an adviser to conduct an extensive complex capital projects. The capital projects
analysis to quantify the impact of the team advises both owners and suppliers on
delivery, control and commercial issues that
tight tolerance on productivity and
Being prepared for costs and presented those findings to a
they face in implementing engineering and
construction projects.
possibledisputes mediator for settlement of the claim.
Information is power. Thats why its
so important that both airport owners From a cost and time standpoint, Contact: Anthony Morgan (anthony.j.morgan@
its clearly better to resolve disputes uk.pwc.com, +44(0) 20 7213 4178)
and contractors invest in top-notch
information technology systems to outside the courtroom. Taking legal
collect data about a project that can action also can raise questions about
be used later to support their case in which nations laws apply if the
the event of a dispute. Such thorough, contractors, operators, or financing
easily accessible records can help entities are from outside the airports
resolve a conflict more swiftly. home country.
75
2013; Canadian pension fund PSP
acquired the airport portfolio from 50
Hochtief group in third quarter of
2013. More recently, the Spanish 25
public body Aena acquired Luton
Airport from Abertis in August 2013. 0
Jan May Sep Jan May Sep Feb Jun Oct Jan Jun Dec Mar Jun Nov Feb May Oct
Given the continuing Eurozone 08 08 08 09 09 09 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 13
crisis and the need for investments
Kbenhavns Lufthavne A/S (CPSE:KBHL)
in key transport infrastructure in
Aeroports de Paris Societe Anonyme (ENXTPA:ADP)
the emerging markets, partial or full Flughafen Wien AG (WBAG:FLU)
privatisation of state-owned airports FTSEurofirst 300 IndexIndex Value
may remain popular. Furthermore, the Fraport AG (XTRA:FRA)
Flughafen Zuerich AG (SWX:FHZN)
Listed European airport average
Percentage growth
to trend to trend to trend
traffic (pax) since 1976, with ? years 60%
Pax (million)
150 45 years 56 years
the long-term passenger growth 50%
trendsuperimposed. 40%
100
30%
The graph shows that, up until 2008,
20%
it typically took four to six years for
50
traffic to return to the long-term 10%
EV/EBITDA multiple
Avg. 22.4x
emergence of low-cost carriers (LCCs).
Pax (million)
Discounted cash flow analysis. While transaction multiples provide useful valuation benchmarks, typically the
discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation methodology is used as the primary approach to value airports. This is because
airports generally have long-term projections that offer cash flow visibility. The DCF approach is also more appropriate
for differentiating between an airports revenue streams (aviation, retail, real estate, external operations) and the various
regulatory mechanisms under which airports operate.
Airport transaction multiples. There are clear challenges in comparing transaction multiples between airports. This
is due to each airports specific operations and individual growth prospects. In addition to market factors and competitive
bidding conditions at sale, key factors impacting airport value and transaction multiples include the following:
Maturity of the airport. Most large, mature airports Catchment area penetration. The extent to which
have less potential to increase traffic than smaller an airport has penetrated its primary and secondary
regional airports and may trade at a lower multiple. For catchment areas affects its passenger growth potential.
a small regional airport starting from a low passenger
Capacity constraints. Runway or terminal capacity
base, attracting two or three new airlines can transform
constraints tend to depress an airports traffic growth
the businessa prospect that is often reflected in
potential. Alleviating these constraints may require
transaction multiples. Conversely, larger airports
significant capital expenditure (capex) spend as well as
tend to have a broader airline base, so they are less
planning and regulatory approval.
vulnerable to customer concentration risk and volatility.
Airport traffic mix. The make-up of an airports
Potential for yield improvements. Airports
trafficthe mix of shortand long-haul as well as
with non-aeronautical revenues that are lower than
business, leisure, charter, and low-cost trafficaffects
those of comparable airports can boost their earnings
airport earnings. For example, traffic mix can strongly
by improving their retail offerings, increasing parking
determine an airports commercial revenue spend
fees, and making other similar enhancements. This
per passenger. Domestic passenger retail spending
potential for better earnings can also be reflected in
will tend to be lower than that of other leisure and
transactionmultiples.
business travellers, due to shorter airside dwell time.
Regulatory environment. Airports are typically Also, business traffic will likely stay steady during an
subject to regulation when regulators see them as economic slowdown, compared to other traffic types
holding substantial market power. Regulated airports such as charter.
risk/reward profile differs from those of unregulated
Airline customer dependence. The degree of
airportsfor example investors see regulated airports
airline concentration at an airport will impact value.
as more vulnerable to changes in regulatory regimes i.e.
If an airport is highly dependent on one or two key
regulatory risk). Airports are also subject to different
airline customers a reduction in aircraft capacity (due,
regulatory environments in different jurisdictions. In
for example, to reallocation of aircraft capacity across
the UK, for instance, regulated airports are allowed
an airlines network or airline bankruptcy) will have a
to earn a return on their regulated asset base (RAB).
material impact on the airport. Further, airports typically
RAB is therefore a key valuation metric, and the market
have to renegotiate tariff increases on a frequent basis
places significant emphasis on enterprise value to RAB
with their main carriers and single airline dominance at
multiples in assessing the value of regulated airports.
an airport will impact negotiating power.
Figure
Figure4:4:UK
UKairport traffic
airport and GDP growthto trend
trafficreversion
350 40%
35%
300 30%
Percentage growth
25%
Pax (million)
250 20%
15%
200 10%
5%
150 0%
-5%
100 -10%
1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024
1
Cyclicality should be built into long-term
2
cash flowprojections
When assessing the value of an airport it is
essential to recognise the cyclicality of the
industry, consider where we currently sit in the
economic cycle and build sensitivities into cash Airport transaction multiples are unlikely to
flow projections to reflect economic downturns reach pre-recession levels in the short term
and other risks. Recent evidence suggests that
Given current growth expectations and market
airport performance is not as immune to wider
uncertainty we do not expect to see a return to the
market volatility as perhaps once thought.
20+ times EV/EBITDA transaction multiples for
European airports in the short term. However, once
there is greater visibility around the strength and
pace of traffic recovery there is nothing to preclude
observing this level of multiples again in the medium
term, if there are asset specific reasons to justify this.
3
A comprehensive assessment of comparable transaction multiples
isrequired if used as valuation benchmarks
While airport transactions clearly provide useful valuation benchmarks, it is
imperative to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the comparability of
transactions and make appropriate adjustments if it becomes apparent that
they are incorporating different, or even unrealistic, growth expectations.
4
Reversion to the long-term passenger traffic trend
will take several years
An assessment of historical UK passenger traffic suggests
that growth rates are not constant. With potentially a 10-12
year period before traffic reverts to historical passenger
5
growth trends, it seems timely to revisit the premise that
traffic always reverts to long-term trends.
Q4 2012
Q3 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 1982
Q1 1983
Q4 1983
Q3 1984
Q2 1985
Q1 1986
Q4 1986
Q3 1987
Q2 1988
Q1 1989
Q4 1989
Q3 1990
Q2 1991
Q1 1992
Q4 1992
Q3 1993
Q2 1994
Q1 1995
Q4 1995
Q3 1996
Q2 1997
Q1 1998
Q4 1998
Q3 1999
Q2 2000
Q1 2001
Q4 2001
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Q4 2004
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Q2 2006
Q1 2007
Q4 2007
Q3 2008
Q2 2009
Q1 2010
Q4 2010
Q3 2011
Q2 2012
and competitive market
Historically, airlines have been the
least profitable link in the air transport
supply chain. Today, the situation is Source: Thomson Reuters
Economic health. Propensity to fly goes up when Geographical features. Propensity to fly is greater
peopleCyclicality
have enoughshould
personal income to afford
be built into long-termholidays within island nations, countries that are relatively
and when growth in the
cash flowprojections overall economy reflects isolated with limited land transport and large distances
growth in business and therefore the need for business between population centres, and countries with a
When assessing
trips. Having the value
enough money of an airport,
for travel requiresitaisstrong long, thin shape, which makes even high-speed rail a
economyessential to recognise
reflected in healthythe cyclicality
growth of the
in gross domestic challenging option for travel.
productindustry,
(GDP). consider where we currently sit in
the economic cycle, and build sensitivities Competition. The rise of amultiples
Airport transaction new business aremodel in a to
unlikely
Demographic
into cashchanges. A growing
flow projections population
to reflect can
economic marketsuch as low-costlevels
reach prerecession carriers
in(LCCs)can
the short term increase
increase propensity
downturns to other
and fly merely
risks.by raising
Recent the number
evidence propensity to fly if it makes air travel more affordable or
of people livingthat
within a particular economy. Anas Given current
appealing growth expectations
for consumers and market
and businesspeople.
suggests airport performance is not
expanding middle class can boost propensity as well, uncertainty, we do not expect to see a return to
immune to wider market volatility as perhaps Airport hub status. Countries with air connectivity
as more and more people have the incomes needed to the transaction multiples of more than 20 times far
was once thought. outEV/EBITDA
of proportion to their size, because of their airports
afford air travel. for European airports in the short
hubterm.
status, have a higher
However, propensity
once there to fly
is greater owing into
visibility to the
Market maturity. As with demographic changes, availability of air
the strength services.
and pace ofSingapore and thenothing
traffic recovery, United
propensity to fly doesnt increase indefinitely as an Arab Emiratesobserving
precludes are goodthis
examples
level ofofmultiples
this. again in
economy grows.1 In fact, it tapers off as a market the medium term, if there are asset-specific reasons
matures and approaches saturation. to justify this.
Crises. Unexpected crises, such as the 9/11 terrorist
attacks and the global financial crisis in Europe,
can temporarily decrease propensity to assessment
A comprehensive fly. Following of comparable transaction multiples
the crisis, propensity can revive strongly
isrequired if used as in avaluation
kind benchmarks
of catching-up pattern after several years of
suppressed growth.While airport transactions clearly provide useful valuation benchmarks, it is
imperative to undertake a comprehensive assessment of the comparability of
transactions and make appropriate adjustments if it becomes apparent that
they are incorporating different, or even unrealistic, growth expectations.
1 Theres still a limit to how many trips a person can reasonably take in a year,
given work and personal commitments. So demographic changes cant raise
propensity to fly indefinitely.
But propensity to fly is affected by a With that in mind, lets take a look Growth in number of air
lot of different, interrelated forces. at the forces affecting propensity to passengers
(See the sidebar above.) An economys fly. Well then compare how the most When it comes to growth in number
health (and therefore its personal powerful of these forces are changing of air passengers, our analysis of
income levels), demographic changes in several markets. And well consider the developed world presented no
and the affordability of air travel what our analysis suggests about surprises. Propensity to fly has been
are just a few examples. To identify investment opportunities. increasing rapidly in Europe, owing
the most promising opportunities to deregulation of the airline industry
for aviation infrastructure investing, and therefore increased competition
investors must understand how those Our analysis and the consumer benefits that have
forces are changing within particular We analysed trends in aviation markets ensued. But it will probably slow in
markets and compare their findings around the globe, with an eye toward the medium to long term, after the
across markets. Many investors are determining where the best investment effects of deregulation have worn off
already basing their investment opportunities might arise in the near and the market has reached a point
strategies at least in part on their and long term. Our analysis focused of saturation. The US has already
analysis of the aviation markets of on two factors: compound annual experienced this pattern.
the BRIC countries. But as well see, growth rates (CAGR) and correlations
between per-capita GDP and number Its the rapidly developing markets
that same configuration of markets
of air trips per capita, taking into account particularly newly industrialised
may not necessarily present the best
the various factors discussed above. economies2 like Brazil, China, India,
opportunities in the future.
Indonesia, the Philippines and
Turkeythat are seeing the biggest
jumps in the number of air passengers.
3 IATA 200711. markets (for example, small island Resident trips per country
nations, countries where other travel We used the relationships derived for
4 We excluded countries for which economic data
was unavailable as well as nations that have low modes are not available or competitive, isolated and non-isolated markets from
levels of outbound travel because of political or or countries with major air hubs the data in Figure 2 to forecast growth
social restrictions. Likewise, we didnt include
creating an inflated air travel market in resident trips for 2020 for each
countries that have a disproportionate share of
outbound passengers and that have incomplete due to connectivity). Figure 2 shows country in our study, given growth in
point-of-sale or point-of-origin data. that as GDP increases, propensity per-capita GDP and population over
5 Though air fares and exchange rates also to fly increases. It also suggests that the coming three decades.6 We then
contribute to the number of trips a person takes, it propensity to fly reaches saturation as compared these forecasts to resident
wasnt feasible to gather this level of detail for each
country. For this reason, our analysis doesnt reflect
GDP rises. trips for each country in 2012 and
these fares and rates.
Airport in Campinas, Guarulhos Transfer (BOT) Model in 1994. Since has also expressed an interest in
International Airport, Brasilia then, there has been private sector concessioning its 11 airports. Japanese
International Airport, started to occur involvement for development at airports present significant commercial
with these airports being auctioned to Antalya, Istanbul-Ataturk, Izmir- opportunities, as this area has
a consortium of private firms. Galeo Adnan Menderes, Dalaman and Milas- previously been underexploited.
International Airport in Rio de Janeiro, Bodrium airports. Turkish operator,
and Confins International Airport TAV holdings, not only is the largest
in Belo Horizonte are also set to be airport operator in Turkey, but also Considerations for
partially privatized in a second round operates airports abroad. investors
of concessions occurring later this We have outlined several emerging
A third airport with a final passenger markets that will see a major increase
year. Infraero, has also been investing
handling capacity of 150 million in their propensity to fly by 2020. Each
in facility improvements at these
passengers per year is planned to be of these markets needs significant
twoairports.
developed in Istanbul with the view of infrastructure upgrading.
Additional potential is identified replacing Ataturk Airport. The project In making investment decisions,
in retail expansion. In 2011, non- was contracted using the BOT model. investors will want to take into
aeronautical revenue accounted The 25 year tender was auctioned off account these markets unique
for about 32% of the total revenue, for euro 22billion (US$31 billion) in characteristics, including the
highlighting that there may be scope May to a consortium of five Turkish regulatory environment and the
for maximizing revenue generation companies. changing global aviation landscape.
generated through retail.
Expansion programs for Ataturk Lets consider the regulatory
With traffic volumes expected to Airport as well as Sabiha Gken environment first. Tax and investment
increase significantly in Brazil over the Airport are also underway in laws, along with other regulations,
next 10 years, Brazilian airports will a bid to provide for additional can put up barriers to investors in
likely remain attractive to investors. aviationcapacity. markets that look good because
theyre anticipating huge growth in
Turkey Japan their aviation industry. For example,
The Turkish economy has grown Air traffic growth in Japan is slowing China will see a big jump in air
robustly over the last decade, and its because of Japans ageing population. traffic growth, and (as we noted
air transport services have developed The resulting decline in population, above) its government is planning to
exceptionally as both its airlines and coupled with slow real growth in GDP, invest heavily in beefing up aviation
its infrastructure have modernised means that propensity to fly needs infrastructure. The government
successfully. Visitors to Turkey to work even harder for Japans air is also initiating reforms to raise
increased at an average annual rate of travel market to continue to grow and income levelsincluding increasing
over 10% over the last decade as well keep up with other markets. LCCs the minimum wage 40% by 2015,
as seeing a huge increase in resident are beginning to have a presence at expanding the government-funded
trips due to strong economic growth. Japanese airports, potentially leading social welfare and health care system,
New airport infrastructure and Turkish to stiffer competition and lower fares, and promoting labour-intensive service
Airlines aggressive growth has which could increase propensity to fly. industries. These moves could boost
allowed for this development. There Despite modest growth expectations, consumption as a percentage of GDP
has been increased private sector Japan still presents an opportunity for growth. All this suggests that China
involvement in airport development investors, as the Japanese government may represent a good opportunity for
since the government enacted a law on has announced plans to concession investment. But owing to regulations
the realisation of certain investments up to 27 airports between 2015 and restricting foreign investment, the
and services in the Build-Operate- 2019. In parallel, the state of Hokkaido door isnt necessarily open for outside
from one deal to the next. Now But during 201112, average multiples
rebounded to above precrisis levels,
many of them are looking at thanks to signs of economic recovery
airports as deals in themselves. and transactions in emerging markets
Consortium requirements will depend on the target airport and key characterics
e.g. Will major construction be required, can potential upside be captured through
expertise in commercial development
Construction
Experience in airport
construction projects
Knowledge of the market
Advisors
Financial Strategy/
Legal business planning
Capex Operations
Tax/accounting
Michael Burns
Tel +44 (0) 20 7804 4438
michael.h.burns@uk.pwc.com
2013 PwC. All rights reserved. PwC refers to the PwC network and/or one or more of its member firms, each
of which is a separate legal entity. Please see http://www.pwc.com/structure for further details. AT-14-0049