RISKRETURN 10

Current riskfree rate = 6.50% Risk premium for stocks= 5.50%

Number of periods of data= 53 Riskfree rate during period 6.00%
 RISKRETURN 11

Time period Index Price(Stock) DPS(Stock) Split Factor Index Level Return(Stock) Return(Mkt)
1 1 $30.75 1 179.63
2 1 $28.00 1 181.19 -8.94% 0.87%
3 1 $27.75 $0.00 1 180.66 -0.89% -0.29%
4 1 $27.50 1 179.83 -0.90% -0.46%
5 1 $26.38 1 189.55 -4.07% 5.41%
6 1 $26.00 $0.00 1 191.85 -1.44% 1.21%
7 1 $28.25 1 190.92 8.65% -0.48%
8 1 $26.00 1 188.63 -7.96% -1.20%
9 1 $25.75 $0.00 1 182.08 -0.96% -3.47%
10 1 $25.50 1 189.82 -0.97% 4.25%
11 1 $28.50 1 202.17 11.76% 6.51%
12 1 $29.25 $0.00 1 211.28 2.63% 4.51%
13 1 $28.25 1 211.78 -3.42% 0.24%
14 1 $27.75 1 226.92 -1.77% 7.15%
15 1 $26.00 $0.00 1 238.90 -6.31% 5.28%
16 1 $28.50 1 235.52 9.62% -1.41%
17 1 $27.25 1 247.35 -4.39% 5.02%
18 1 $23.00 $0.00 1 250.84 -15.60% 1.41%
19 1 $18.25 1 236.12 -20.65% -5.87%
20 1 $23.00 1 252.93 26.03% 7.12%
21 1 $19.50 $0.00 1 231.32 -15.22% -8.54%
22 1 $20.25 1 243.98 3.85% 5.47%
23 1 $23.00 1 249.22 13.58% 2.15%
24 1 $21.00 $0.00 1 242.17 -8.70% -2.83%
25 1 $31.25 1 274.08 48.81% 13.18%
26 1 $38.00 1 284.20 21.60% 3.69%
27 1 $38.50 $0.00 1 289.20 1.32% 1.76%
28 1 $47.00 1 288.36 22.08% -0.29%
29 1 $43.88 1 290.10 -6.64% 0.60%
30 1 $44.00 $0.00 1 304.10 0.27% 4.83%
31 1 $47.75 1 318.66 8.52% 4.79%
32 1 $52.75 1 329.80 10.47% 3.50%
33 1 $57.75 $0.00 1 321.83 9.48% -2.42%
34 1 $26.00 1.5 251.79 -32.47% -21.76%
 RISKRETURN 12

35 1 $21.50 1 230.30 -17.31% -8.53%

36 1 $26.50 $0.00 1 247.08 23.26% 7.29%
37 1 $25.50 1 257.07 -3.77% 4.04%
38 1 $28.25 1 267.82 10.78% 4.18%
39 1 $29.38 $0.00 1 258.89 4.00% -3.33%
40 1 $31.00 1 261.33 5.51% 0.94%
41 1 $30.75 1 262.16 -0.81% 0.32%
42 1 $36.13 $0.00 1 273.50 17.50% 4.33%
43 1 $34.75 1 272.02 -3.82% -0.54%
44 1 $28.00 1 261.52 -19.42% -3.86%
45 1 $27.50 $0.00 1 271.91 -1.79% 3.97%
46 1 $24.75 1 278.97 -10.00% 2.60%
47 1 $20.25 1 273.30 -18.18% -2.03%
48 1 $23.75 $0.00 1 277.72 17.28% 1.62%
49 1 $26.00 1 297.47 9.47% 7.11%
50 1 $25.75 1 288.86 -0.96% -2.89%
51 1 $26.25 $0.00 1 294.87 1.94% 2.08%
52 1 $29.00 1 309.64 10.48% 5.01%
53 1 $32.50 1 320.52 12.07% 3.51%
54 0 $29.00 $0.00 1 317.98 0.00% 0.00%
55 0 $30.50 1 346.08 0.00% 0.00%
56 0 $30.00 1 351.45 0.00% 0.00%
57 0 $32.25 $0.00 1 349.15 0.00% 0.00%
58 0 $33.75 1 340.36 0.00% 0.00%
59 0 $34.75 1 345.99 0.00% 0.00%
60 0 $34.50 $0.00 1 353.40 0.00% 0.00%
 RISKRETURN 13

REGRESSION STATISTICS AND RISK PARAMETERS

RISK AND PERFORMANCE MEASURES
Intercept (Alpha) = -0.45%
Slope (Beta)= 1.77880824
Rf(1- Beta) = -0.38%
Intercept-Rf(1-Beta)= -0.07%

VARIANCE STATISTICS
Variance of the stock= 0.01911051
Variance of the market = 0.00277992
Systematic variance= 0.0087961
Unsystematic variance= 0.01031441
R squared = 46.03%

USING BETA
In estimating expected returns:
Riskfree Rate = 6.50%
Historical return premium 5.50%
Expected return= 16.28%

In forecasting prices:
Current price= $35.00
Annualized DPS= $0.00
Predicted prices:
 RISKRETURN 14

- One year from now $40.70

- Two years from now $47.33
- Three years from now $55.03
- Four years from now $63.99
- Five years from now $74.41
 RISKRETURN 15

Current stock price $35.00

Current Annual DPS $0.00
 RISKRETURN 16

(R(jt)-Rj)^2 (R(mt)-R(m))^2 (R(jt)-R(j))

(R(mt)-R(m))
0.0110873483 6.005224244E-06 0.00025803
0.0006147501 0.0001976887 0.00034861
0.0006187454 0.0002474121 0.00039126
0.0032027514 0.0018417808 -0.00242874
0.0009162993 9.978561528E-07 -3.0238E-05
0.0049946557 0.0002554439 -0.00112954
0.009122466 0.0005349796 0.00220915
0.0006492797 0.0021030605 0.00116854
0.0006540459 0.0009843099 -0.00080236
0.0103594687 0.0029080742 0.00548873
0.0001092068 0.0011509744 0.00035453
0.0025053647 7.688740336E-05 0.0004389
0.001126589 0.0036426303 -0.00202577
0.0062297313 0.0017354608 -0.00328808
0.0064462051 0.0006392429 -0.00202995
0.0035671034 0.0015283569 -0.00233491
0.0295251662 8.847574513E-06 -0.0005111
0.0494561214 0.0048745391 0.01552662
0.0597354606 0.0036069081 0.01467857
0.0282372725 0.0093264859 0.0162282
0.0005105772 0.0019004634 0.00098505
0.0143848565 0.000106959 0.0012404
0.0105723854 0.0015541992 0.00405359
0.2230008465 0.0145520472 0.05696594
0.0400537846 0.0006650443 0.00516116
7.331579471E-06 0.000041708 -1.7487E-05
0.0419895987 0.0001971114 -0.00287691
0.006764826 2.601969161E-05 0.00041955
0.0001724193 0.0013782023 -0.00048747
0.0048110439 0.0013501151 0.00254862
0.0078936931 0.0005675742 0.00211666
0.0062285473 0.0012461772 -0.00278601
0.1159681103 0.052333654 0.07790401
 RISKRETURN 17

0.0356992709 0.0093091576 0.01822992

0.0469556638 0.0038101498 0.01337565
0.0028731136 0.0008583244 -0.00157037
0.0084598704 0.0009414054 0.00282209
0.0005824701 0.0019783249 -0.00107346
0.0015424445 2.9248587E-06 -6.7167E-05
0.0005726497 6.334589052E-05 0.00019046
0.0253108263 0.0010317556 0.00511024
0.0029225906 0.0002737836 0.00089452
0.0441462911 0.0024735878 0.01044987
0.0011372223 0.0008176283 -0.00096427
0.0134248335 0.0002199111 -0.00171822
0.0390788711 0.0009897215 0.0062191
0.0246408123 2.537771508E-05 0.00079078
0.0062206754 0.0035975665 0.00473068
0.0006492797 0.0016063398 0.00102126
1.261593705E-05 9.352539127E-05 3.43498E-05
0.0079025559 0.0015174761 0.00346294
0.010988086 0.0005761202 0.00251604
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0
0 0 0