Solutions - Problems in Probability (Student Version) : HT T, HT H, HHT, HHH, T T T, T T H, T HT, T HH

Solutions - Problems in Probability (Student Version)
Section 1 Events, Sample Spaces and Probability
1. If three coins are ipped, the outcomes are
HT T, HT H, HHT, HHH, T T T, T T H, T HT, T HH.
There are eight outcomes. We can also count these outcomes as follows.
An outcomes has the form (x, y, z), where each of x, y and z is an H
or a T , independently. There are two possibilities for x, and for each,
two for y for four possibilities from the rst two ips. There are also two
possibilities for z, with each of these four possibilities from the rst two
ips, making 8 outcomes in all.
(a) There are three outcomes with exactly two heads, so
3
Pr(exactly two heads) = .
8
(b) For at least two heads, we could have exactly two heads (three out-
comes) or all three heads (one outcome), for four ways this can happen.
Then
4 1
Pr(at least two heads) = = .
8 2
3. Three dice are rolled. With six possibilities independently for each die
(the number that comes up on one die does not inuence what comes up
on another), there are 6 6 6 = 216 outcomes.
(a) The dice can come up the same in six ways, namely:
(1, 1, 1), (2, 2, 2), (3, 3, 3), (4, 4, 4), (5, 5, 5), (6, 6, 6).
Then
6
Pr(all dice come up the same) = .
216
(b) The outcomes with the dice totalling 15 are
(6, 6, 3), (6, 5, 4), (6, 4, 5), (6, 3, 6),

(5, 6, 4), (5, 5, 3), (5, 4, 6),
(4, 6, 5), (4, 5, 6),
(3, 6, 6).
These have been displayed in a way to suggest the systematic way they
were listed. In counting objects by enumerating them, it is helpful to have
a scheme in mind to avoid duplications or omissions. In this case, we
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started with outcomes having 6 on the rst die, then those having 5, and
so on.
There are 10 outcomes with the dice totaling 15. Then
10
Pr(the dice total )15 = .
216
(c) Suppose the rst die comes up 1 and the third comes up 4. This leaves
six outcomes, since the second die can come up 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 or 6. Therefore
6
Pr(rst die 1, second die 4) =
216
(d) Suppose the rst two dice come up even. There are now three ways
the rst die can come up, and, independently, three ways the second die
can come up, and, independent of these two tosses, six ways the third die
can come up. This is a total of 3 3 6, or 54 outcomes. Then
54 1
Pr(rst two dice come up even) = = .
216 4
5. Flip two coins and then roll a die. We can record an outcome as (x, y, z),
with x and y can independently be H or T and z can be any integer
1, 2, , 6. There are 2 possibilities for each coin and 6 for the dice,
yielding 2(2)(6) = 24 outcomes.
(a) Suppose one head, one tail and an even number come up. If the head
comes up rst, then the other coin is T and there are three possibilities
for the die (2, 4 or 6). If the tail comes up rst, there are also three
possibilities for the two coins and the die. There are therefore 6 outcomes
with one head, one tail and an even number on the die. Then
6 1
Pr(one H, one T , and an even number) = = .
24 4
(b) There are two outcomes with both coins heads and the die a 1 or 4.
These outcomes are (H, H, 1) and (H, H, 4). Then
2 1
Pr(both heads, 1 or 4 on the die) = = .
24 12
(c) Suppose at least one tail comes up, with a 4, 5 or 6 on the die. Now
the outcomes all have the form
(T, H, x), (H, T, x) or (T, T, x)
in which x can be 4, 5 or 6. This yields 9 outcomes. Therefore

9 3
Pr(at least one tail, and 4, 5 or 6) = = .
24 8
Section 2 Four Counting Principles
1. The fact that these are letters of the alphabet that we are arranging in
order is irrelevant. The issue is that there are nine distinct objects. The
number of arrangements is 9!, which is 362, 880.
3. Since any of the nine integers can be used in any of the nine places of
the ID number, there are 9 ways the rst digit can be chosen, 9 ways the
second digit can be chosen, and so on. The total number of codes is 99 ,
or
3.87420489(10)8 .
5. These 7 symbols have 7! = 5, 040 permutations or arrangements.

If a is xed as the rst symbol, then there are six symbols to choose in
any order for the other six places, and the number of choices is 6! = 720.
If a is xed as the rst symbol, and g as the fth, then we have ve symbols
left to choose in any order for the remaining ve places. The number of
ways of doing this is 5! = 120.
7. There are 12! = 479, 001, 600 outcomes.
9. We want to pick 7 objects from 25, taking order into account. The number
of ways to do this is
25!
25 P7 = = (19)(20)(21)(22)(23)(24)(25) = 2, 422, 728, 000.
18!
11. Because order is important, the number of possibilities is

22!
22 P6 = = 53, 721, 360.
16!
12. (a) The number of choices is

20!
20 P3 = = 6, 840.
17!
(b) If the list begins with 4, there are only two numbers to choose from
the remaining nineteen numbers. There are
19!
19 P 2 = = (18)(19) = 342
17!
ways to do this. This result does not depend on which number is xed in
the rst position. The percentage of choices beginning with 4 is 100(342/6, 840),
or 5 percent. This is reasonable from a common sense point of view, since,
with 20 number to choose from, we would expect 5 percent to begin with
any particular one of the numbers.
(c) This question is really the same as the question in (b), since it does
not matter which number is xed. The answer is that 5 percent of the
choices ends in 9.
(d) If two places are xed at 3 and 15, then there are eighteen numbers
left, from which we want to choose one. There are 18 such choices.
13. Without order (and, we assume, without replacement), the number of ten
card hands is
52!
52 C10 = = 15, 820, 024, 220.
10!42!
15. The number of combinations is
20!
20 C4 = = 4, 845.
4!16!
17. The number of outcomes of ipping ve coins is 25 = 32.

(a) The number of ways of getting exactly two heads from the ve ips
is 5 C2 = 5!/(2!3!) = 10. The probability of getting exactly two heads (or
exactly two tails) is
10 5
Pr(exactly two heads) = = .
32 16
(b) We get at least two heads if we get exactly two, or exactly three, or
exactly four, or exactly ve heads. The sum of the number of ways of
doing each of these is
5 C2 +5 C3 +5 C4 +5 C5 = 10 + 10 + 5 + 1 = 26.
Therefore
26 13
Pr(at least two heads) = = .
32 16
19. The number of ways of drawing two cards out of 52 cards, without regard
to order, is 52 C2 = 1, 326.
(a) We get two kings if we happen to get two of the four kings, and there
are 4 C2 = 6 ways of doing this. Then
6 1
Pr(two kings are drawn) = = .
1326 221
(b) The aces and face cards constitute 16 of the 52 cards. If none of the
two cards is drawn from these sixteen cards, then the two cards are drawn
from the remaining 36 cards. Disregarding order, there are 36 C2 = 630
ways to do this. Therefore
630 105
Pr(no ace or face card) = = .
1326 221
21. The number of ways of choosing, without order, three of the eight bowling
balls is 8 C3 = 56.
(a) For none of the balls to be defective, they had to come from the six
nondefective ones. There are 6 C3 = 20 ways to do this. Then
20 5
Pr(none defective) = = .
56 14
(b) There are two ways to take one defective ball. The other two would
have to be taken from the six nondefective ones, which can be done in
6 C2 = 15 ways. Then
30 15
Pr(exactly one defective ball) = = .
56 28
(c) In choosing three bowling balls, there are 3 ways of picking the two
defective ones. Then there are six ways of choosing the third ball as
nondefective. Therefore
6(3) 9
Pr(both defective balls are chosen) = = .
56 28
23. Taking order into account, there are

20!
20 P5 = = (16)(17)(18)(19)(20) = 1, 860, 480
15!
ways to choose 5 of the balls.
(a) There is only one way to choose the balls numbered 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 in this
order. the probability is
1
Pr(select 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 in this order) = .
1860480
(b) We want the probability that ball number 3 was drawn (somewhere in
the ve drawings). We therefore need the number of ordered choices of ve
of the twenty numbers, that include the number 3. We can think of this
as choosing, in order, four of the nineteen numbers 1, 2, 4, 5, , 18, 19, 20,
and then inserting 3 in any of the positions from the rst through fth
numbers of the drawing. This will result in all ordered sequences of length
ve from the twenty numbers, and containing the number 3 in some posi-
tion. There are therefore 5(19 P4 ) = 465, 120 such sequences. Therefore
465120 1
Pr(selecting a 3) = = .
1860480 4
(c) We must count all the drawings (sequences) that contain at least one
even number. This could mean the sequence contains one, two, three,
four or ve even numbers. This is a complicated counting problem if
approached directly. It is easier to count the sequences that have no even
number, hence are formed just from the ten even integers from 1 through
20. If this number is N0 , then the number X of sequences having an even
number is
X = 1, 860, 480 N0 .
Now N0 is easy to compute, since this is the number of ordered ve-term
sequences of the ten odd numbers. Thus
N0 =10 P5 = 30, 240.
Then X = 1860480 - 30240 = 1830240.

Then
1830240
Pr(an even number was drawn) = .
1860480
This is approximately 0.984, so it is very likely that an even numbered
ball was drawn.
25. The number of ve-card hands (disregarding the order of the deal) is
52 C5 = 2, 598, 960.
(a) The number of hands containing exactly one jack and exactly one king
is
4(4)(44 C3 ) = 211, 904.
This is because there are four ways of getting one jack, four ways of get-
ting one king, and then we choose (without order) three cards from the
remaining 44 cards. Thus
211904
Pr(exactly one jack and exactly one king) = .
2598960
This is approximately 0.082, so this event is quite likely.
(b) The hand will contain at least two aces if it has exactly two aces,
exactly three aces, or exactly four aces. The number of such hands is
(4 C2 )(48 C3 ) + (4 C3 )(48 C2 ) + (4 C4 )(48 C1 ) = 108, 336.
For the rst term, choose two aces out of four, then three cards from
the remaining forty-eight cards, and similarly for the other two terms for
drawing three aces or drawing four aces. Then
108336
Pr(draw at least two aces) = .
2598960
This is approximately 0.042. As we might expect, a hand with at least
two aces is not very likely.
Section 3 Complementary Events
1. There are many ways seven dice can come up with at least two fours (call
this event E). We can count these, but it may be easier to look at the
complementary event E C , which is that fewer than two dice come up 4.
This is the event that exactly one die comes up 4, or none of them do.
If no 4 comes up, then each of the seven dice has ve possible numbers
showing, for 57 possibilities. If exactly one die comes up with a four, then
the other dice have ve possible numbers showing, and this can occur in
7(56 ) ways. This means that E C has
57 + 7(56 ) = 187, 500
outcomes. Then, since the total number of outcomes of seven rolls is

67 = 279, 939, we have
187500
Pr(E C ) = .
279936
The probability we are interested in is
187500
Pr(E) = Pr(at least one 4) = 1 .
279936
This is approximately 0.330.
3. Draw 5 cards from the deck. Without regard to the order of the draw,
there are 52 C5 = 2, 598, 960 hands that can occur. Consider the event E
that at least one card is a face card, or is numbered 4 or higher. E will take
some work to enumerate. Thus look at the smaller complementary event
E C , which is the event that the hand has no ace, jack, king or queen, and
every card numbers 2 or 3. This leaves just twos and threes to form the
hand. With these eight cards, the number of possible hands is 8 C5 = 56.
Then
56
Pr(E C ) = .
2598960
Then
56
Pr(E) = 1 ,
2598960
which is approximately 0.999.
5. Let E be the event that at least one of the four numbers selected from
1, 2, , 55 is greater than 4. To compute Pr(E) we must count the out-
comes in E, and this is tedious.
Look at the apparently simpler event E C , which is the event that all four
numbers chosen are less than or equal to 4, hence must be chosen from the
numbers 1, 2, 3, 4. Since we are choosing four numbers, there is only one
way to do this (without regard to order) from these four numbers. Since
the total number of ways of choosing four numbers from fty-ve numbers
is 55 C4 , then
1 1
Pr(E C ) = = .
C
55 4 341055
Then
1
Pr(E) = 1 ,
341055
which is nearly 1, as we might expect intuitively.
Section 4 Conditional Probability
1. (a) The experiment has four outcomes. Let E be the event that the rst
coin comes up heads. Then E = {HH, HT }, and
1
Pr(E) = .
2
(b) Let U be the event that at least one coin came up heads. Then
U = {HH, HT, T H} and E U = {HH, HT }.
The conditional probability of E knowing U is
number of outcomes inE U 2
Pr(E|U ) = = .
number of outcomes in U 3
Alternatively, we could compute
Pr(E U ) 2/4 2
Pr(E|U ) = = = .
Pr(U ) 3/4 3
3. Flip four coins. There are 24 = 16 outcomes.

(a) Let E be the event that at least three come up tails. Then E has ve
outcomes, namely T T T H, T T HT, T HT T, HT T T, T T T T . Then
5
Pr(E) = .
16
(b) We want the probability that at least three come up tails, having seen
two come up tails. This means we know that there were at least two tails.
Let U be the event that at leat two tails come up. Then U consists of the
outcomes
HHT T, HT HT, T HHT, T HT H, T T HH,
HT T H, T T T H, T T HT, T HT T, HT T T, T T T T.
Then Pr(U ) = 11/16. Further, E U = E, so
Pr(E U ) Pr(E) 5 5
Pr(E|U ) = = = = .
Pr(U ) Pr(U ) 16 11
5. Roll dice four times. First we want the probability that the dice total
exactly 19.
The number of outcomes of the four rolls is 64 = 1, 296. Now we want the
number of outcomes in the event E that the dice total 19. Here are the
ways the dice can total 19:
6, 6, 6, 1 ( four ways), 6, 6, 5, 2 (twelve ways)
6, 6, 4, 3 ( twelve ways), 6, 5, 5, 3 ( twelve ways)
6, 5, 4, 4 ( twelve ways), 5, 5, 5, 4 ( four ways).
E has 56 outcomes in it, and
56
Pr(E) = ,
1296
which is about 0.043.
Now suppose we want the probability that the dice total exactly 19, given
that one die came up 1 (let this event be U ). Consistent with this, we
could have one, two, three or four dice come up 1. We need to count the
number of outcomes in U . But U consists of all outcomes except those in
which no die came up 1. There are 54 = 625 such outcomes. Therefore U
has
65 54 = 1296 625 = 671
outcomes. Further E U consists of outcomes totalling 19 and having at
least one 1, and there are only four such outcomes. Therefore
4
Pr(E|U ) = ,
671
7. Deal a ve card hand without regard to order. We want the probability
that the hand has four aces, knowing that a four of spades was dealt.
Let E be the event that the hand has four aces, and U the event that a
four of spades was dealt. Now E U consists of all outcomes in which
there are four aces and a four of spades.
Disregarding order, there is one ve card hand having four aces and a four
of spades, hence one outcome in E U . We need to count the outcomes
in U . If one card is a four of spades, the other four can be any four of the
remaining fty-one cards. There are therefore
51 C4 = 249, 900
unordered hands having the four of spades. Then
1
Pr(E|U ) = ,
249, 900
which is very nearly zero.
9. Toss four dice. We want the probability that all four come up an odd
number. This probability is
34 1
Pr(all odd in four tosses) = = .
64 16
Now let E be the event that all four dice come up odd and let U be the
event that one die came up 1 and another, 5. We want Pr(E|U ).
The number of outcomes in U is 2(4 C2 )(6)(6), or 432. Next, E U consists
of all outcomes in which it is know that one die comes up 1 and one comes
up 5, and all four come up odd. this means we roll 1, 5, odd, and odd,
and there are 2(4 C2 )(3)(3) = 108 ways to do this. Then
108 1
Pr(E|U ) = = .
432 4
Finally, suppose we know that the second die came up 6. Now the outcome
that all four dice came up odd is not in the conditional sample space, and
may be thought of as having probability 0.
Section 5 Independent Events
1. Flip four coins. E is the event that exactly one coin comes up heads, and
U is the event that at least three come up tails.
Now, E U consists of the outcomes in which one coin comes up heads
and the others are all tails. This can happen in four ways, so
4 1
Pr(E U ) = = .
24 4
But Pr(E) = 1/4 and Pr(U ) = 5/16. Since
Pr(E U ) = Pr(E)Pr(U ),
then E and U are not independent. This is intuitively apparent, since the
knowledge that exactly one coin comes up heads inuences the probability
that at least three come up tails, by removing one possible way this can
happen.
3. Two dice are rolled and E is the event that they total more than 11. U is
the event that at least one die comes up even.
E can happen only one way (they both come up 6), so
1 1
Pr(E) = = .
62 36
10
And U consists of all outcomes with exactly one die coming up even (eigh-
teen ways this can happen) and all outcomes with both even (nine ways).
Therefore
27 3
Pr(U ) = = .
36 4
Finally, E U consists of all outcomes with at least one even, and totalling
more than 11. This can happen in one way (both dice 6), so
1
Pr(E U ) = .
36
Since
Pr(E U ) = Pr(E)Pr(U ),
these events are not independent.
5. Flip two coins and roll two dice. E is the event that at least one head
comes up. U is the event that at least one 6 comes up. E U is the event
that at least one coin comes up heads and at least one die comes up 6.
The number of outcomes in E is (3)(36), which is 108. Then
108 3
Pr(E) = = .
22 62 4
The number of outcomes in U is 4(11), so
44 11
Pr(U ) = = .
4(36) 36
Finally, E U consists of all outcomes with at least one head and at least
one 6. There are 3(11) = 33 outcomes in this event. Therefore
33 11
Pr(E U ) = = .
4(36) 48
Now observe that

3 11 11
Pr(E)Pr(U ) = = = Pr(E U ),
4 36 48
so E and U are independent.
7. Deal two cards from a 52 card deck, without replacement. E is the event
that the rst card drawn was a jack of diamonds. U is the event that the
second card was a club or spade. E U is the event that the rst card
was a jack of diamonds and the second card a club or spade.
E can happen in 51 ways, since the deal is without replacement. then
51 1
Pr(E) = = .
52(51) 52
11
We must count the outcomes in U . If the rst card drawn was a club or
spade, there are 26 choices for this card, and then 25 for the second, for
(26)(25) outcomes. If the rst card drawn was not a club or spade, then
there are 26 choices for the rst card and 26 for the second as well for 262
outcomes. Then U has 26(25 + 26), or (26)(51) outcomes. Then
26(51) 1
Pr(U ) = = .
52)(51) 2
Finally, E U has 26 outcomes in it, so

26 1
Pr(E U ) = = .
52(51) 102
Now compute
1 1 1
Pr(E)Pr(U ) = = ,
52 2 104
so E and U are not independent.
9. There are 24 = 16 outcomes of four ips. The following have at least two
heads:
HHHH, HHHT, HHT H, HT HH, T HHH, HHT T,

HT HT, HT T H, T T HH, T HT H, T HHT.
The probability of a head is 0.4, so the probability of a tail must be 0.6.

Then
Pr(at least two heads) = (0.4)4 + 3(0.4)3 (0.6)

+ 6(0.4)2 (0.6)2 = 0.4864.
The probability of getting exactly two heads is
Pr(exactly two heads) = 6(0.4)2 (0.6)2 ,

11. Let r be the probability of drawing a red, g the probability of a green,
and b the probability of a blue marble. Since any drawn marble must be
blue, green or red, then
r + b + g = 1.
But b = 2g = 3r, so
2 11
r + 3r + r = r=1
3 2
so
2 3 2 3 6
r= ,g = = , and b = .
11 2 11 11 11
12
Now we know the probability of picking any particular color of a marble
out of the jar. Imagine picking three marbles. We want the probability
of picking exactly two red ones. The possible draws with exactly two red
marbles are
rrb, rbr, brr, rrg, rgr, grr.
Then
Pr(exactly two red marbles in three draws)

2 2
2 6 2 3 108
=3 +3 = .
11 11 11 11 1331
This is approximately 0.081.
Section 6 Tree Diagrams
1. The tree diagram in Figure 1 shows the outcomes. We get the probabilities
by multiplying numbers on edges of paths. the outcomes are payos of 0,
5, 10, 50 and 1200 dollars. From the edges of the tree, read:

1 1 1
Pr(0) = = ,
4 2 8

1 1 1
Pr(5) = = ,
4 2 8

1 1 1
Pr(10) = 4 = ,
4 2 2

1 1 1
Pr(50) = = ,
4 2 8

1 1 1
Pr(1200) = = .
4 2 8
As a check, notice that these probabilities sum to 1.
13
50
5
1/2
1/2 10
1/2
1/4
1/2 10
1/4
10
1/4
1/2
1/4 1/2 10
10
1/2
1/2
1200
Figure 1: Tree diagram for Problem 1, Section 6.
14
3. From the tree diagram in Figure 2, obtain

1 1 1
Pr(Ford) = 2 = ,
6 3 9

1 1 1
Pr(Chevrolet) = = ,
6 3 18

1 1 1
Pr(VW) = = ,
6 2 12

1 1 1
Pr(Porsche) = 2 = ,
6 2 6

1 1 1
Pr(Lamborghini) = = ,
6 2 12

1 1 1
Pr(tricycle) = = ,
6 2 12

1 1 1
Pr(Mercedes) = 2 = ,
6 3 9

1 1 1
Pr(Honda) = = ,
6 3 18

1 1 1
Pr(tank) = = ,
6 2 12

1 1 1
Pr(bicycle) = 3 = ,
6 4 8

1 1 1
Pr(Stanley Steamer) = = .
6 4 24
15
Ford Chevrolet
VW
Ford 1/3
1/3 Porsche
1/2
1/3 1/2
Lamborghini
1/6 1/6
1/2
1/2
1/6 tricycle
Mercedes
1/6
1/3
Mercedes
1/3
1/6
1/3
1/6 Civic
1/2
bicycle tank
1/4 bicycle 1/2

Porsche
1/4
bicycle
1/4
1/4
Stanley Steamer
16
years experience per cent of time products defective per cent as a decimal
10 1 0.01
5 to 10 years exp. 3 0.03
1 to 5 years exp. 5.7 0.057
< 1 year experience 11.3 0.113
Table 1: Information for Problem 1, Section 7.
5. From the tree diagram in Figure 3, we read the following probabilities:

1 1 1
Pr(0) = 5 = ,
5 4 4

1 1 1
Pr(20) = 2 = ,
5 4 10

1 1 1
Pr(nickel) = = ,
5 4 20

1 1 1
Pr(chair) = = ,
5 4 20

1 1 1
Pr(500) = 4 = ,
5 4 5

1 1 1
Pr(1000) = = ,
5 4 20

1 1 1
Pr(1500) = 4 = ,
5 4 5

1 1 1
Pr(lion) = 2 = .
5 4 10
Section 7 Bayess Theorem
1. The company hired people in four groupings. The table displays the given
information.
The table below displays these groupings by work experience, and, for
each, the percentage this group constitutes of the total work force (written
as a decimal), and a reiteration of the percentage (as a decimal) of products
that are defective. By writing these percentages as decimals, they can be
thought of as probabilities. For example, if 45 percent of the workforce is
in one category, then the probability that a worker is in that category is
taken to be 0.45.
17
0
0
0 1/4
1/4
chair
1/4
house 1 1/4
0
1000
0 1/4 1/4
1/5 1/4
house 2
1/4
1/5 .05
500
500
1/5 1/4 1/4
500
house 3 1/4
1/5 1/4
1/5 500
1500
1/4 1500
1500
1/4
house 4 1/4
house 5
1500
1/4 1/4 1/4
20
1/4 lion
1/4 20
lion
group per cent of work force (Ej ) per cent of time products defective
10 0.45 0.01
5 to 10 years exp. 0.37 0.03
1 to 5 years exp. 0.07 0.057
< 1 year experience 0.11 0.113
Table 2: Percentages of workforce and products defective, by group (Problem

1, Section 7).
18
For each category or grouping, we want the probability that a worker is
in this grouping, knowing that an item is defective. Let U be the event
that an item is defective, and Ej the event that a worker is in grouping j
(column two of Table 2). We will use the equation
Pr(Ej |U )
Pr(Ej )Pr(U |Ej )
=
Pr(E1 )Pr(U |E1 ) + Pr(E2 )Pr(U |E2 ) + Pr(E3 )Pr(U |E3 ) + Pr(E4 )Pr(U |E4 )
for j = 1, 2, 3, 4. The numbers Pr(U |Ej ) are read from column three of
the last table. Now compute
Pr(E1 |U ) =
(0.45)(0.01)
(0.45)(0.01) + (0.37)(0.03) + (0.07)(0.057) + (0.11)(0.113)
= 0.141.
This is the probability that a worker was in the ten or more years experi-
ence group, knowing that a product was defective.
For j = 2, 3, 4, the denominator in the Bayes formula is the same and we
need only adjust the numerator (which is one term of the denominator).
Compute
Pr(E2 |U ) =
(0.37)(0.03)
(0.45)(0.01) + (0.37)(0.03) + (0.07)(0.057) + (0.11)(0.113)
= 0.347,
Pr(E3 |U ) =
(0.07)(0.057
(0.45)(0.01) + (0.37)(0.03) + (0.07)(0.057) + (0.11)(0.113)
= 0.125
and
Pr(E4 |U ) =
(0.11)(0.0113)
(0.45)(0.01) + (0.37)(0.03) + (0.07)(0.057) + (0.11)(0.113)
= 0.039.
3. Display the information of the problem:

(a) Suppose a patient is selected. We want the probability that this patient
is an adult man, if we are told that he or she survived at least two more
years. Thus we want to compute
Pr(adult man | survived 2 years).
19
group survive < 1 year survive 2 years total group pop.
adult men 619 257 876
adult women 471 320 791
boys 155 104 155
girls 190 152 190
Table 3: Information for Problem 3, Section 7.
The total number of patients is 876 + 791 + 155 + 190 = 2012. The proba-
bility of choosing an adult man is therefore (to the best of our information)
approximately 876/2012. Arguing similarly for the other probabilities in
the general Bayes formula, we rst obtain
Pr(adult man was chosen | survived 2 years)
(190/2012)(35/190)
(876/2012)(257/876) + (791/2012)(320/791) + (155/2012)(104/155) + (190/2012)(152/190)
= 0.309.
(b) Now compute

Pr(girl was chosen | survived < 1 year)
(190/2012)(38/190)
(190/2012)(38/190) + (155/2012)(51/155) + (791/2012)(471/791) + (876/2012)(619/876)
= 0.032.
5. Let Ej be the event that the gun is from city j in the table. Let U be
the event that the gun explodes. The denominator in the general Bayes
formula for this problem is
(0.15)(0.02) + (0.07)(0.01) + (0.21)(0.06)
+ (0.05)(0.02) + (0.09)(0.03) + (0.44)(0.09) = 0.0594.
Then
(0.15)(0.02)
Pr(E1 |U ) = = 0.0505,
0.0594
(0.07)(0.01)
Pr(E2 |U ) = = 0.0118,
0.0594
(0.21)(0.06)
Pr(E3 |U ) = = 0.2125,
0.0594
(0.04)(0.02)
Pr(E4 |U ) = = 0.0135,
0.0594
(0.09)(0.03)
Pr(E5 |U ) = = 0.0455,
0.0594
(0.44)(0.09)
Pr(E6 |U ) = = 0.666.
0.0594
20
Section 8 Expected Value
1. First compute the probability that at least three heads come up in seven
ips. It is easier to work with the complementary event that fewer than
three heads come up, which occurs if no heads, exactly one head, or exactly
two heads come up. The number of ways this can happen is
7 C2 +7 C1 +7 C0 = 29.
Since there are 27 = 128 outcomes, then

29
Pr(fewer than three heads) =
128
and
29 99
Pr(at least three heads) = 1 = .
128 128
The player wins ve dollars if there are at least three heads. Therefore
the players expected value is
99 29
(5) (9),
128 128
which works out to about one dollar, eighty three cents. On average the
play expects to win this amount each time the game is played.
3. Deal six cards, without regard to order. There are 52 C6 = 20, 358, 520
hands (assuming a 52 card deck). The number of hands with no aces is
48 C6 = 12, 271, 512. Therefore
12271512
Pr(no ace) = .
20358520
which is approximately 0.603. Then
12271512
Pr(at least one ace) = 1 ,
20358520
which is approximately 0.397. For the player, the expected value is ap-
proximately
(0.397)(45) (0.603)(30),
which is approximately 0.225. The player can expect on average to lose
between 22 and 23 cents per game.
5. There are 20 C3 = 1140 ways to draw three marbles from the jar, disre-
garding the order of the draw. We need the probability that at least two
are even-numbered. This happens if exactly two or all three have even
numbers. For exactly two even, we can pick two of the ten even num-
bers in 10 C2 ways, and with each choice, any of the ten odd numbers,
21
for 10(10 C2 ) ways of picking exactly two even-numbered marbles. We can
pick exactly three even in 10 C3 ways. Therefore the number of ways of
picking two or three even numbered marbles is
(10)(10 C2 ) +10 C3 = 570.
Therefore
570 1
Pr(two or three even numbered marbles come up) = = .
1140 2
The expected value to the player is

1 1
3 7 = 2.
2 2
On average, the player can expect to lose two dollars per game.
7. We need the probability that, in choosing four of the hats (without regard
to order), we draw at least three red hats (meaning exactly two or exactly
three red hats). If we draw all three red hats, then we must draw one blue
hat, and there are four ways to do this. If we draw exactly two red hats,
there are three ways to do this with the three red hats available, and then
there are 4 C2 ways of picking the other two hats from the four blue hats.
This means that there are 3(6) = 18 ways of picking exactly two red hats.
Therefore there are 22 ways of drawing at least two red hats, and
22
Pr( 2 red hats) = .
35
The payo for the player is

22 22
(10) 1 (5),
35 35
which is about 4.42. The player can expect on average to win four dollars
and forty two cents per game.
22

Solutions - Problems in Probability (Student Version) : HT T, HT H, HHT, HHH, T T T, T T H, T HT, T HH

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Solutions - Problems in Probability (Student Version)

Section 1 Events, Sample Spaces and Probability

1. If three coins are ipped, the outcomes are

HT T, HT H, HHT, HHH, T T T, T T H, T HT, T HH.

(6, 6, 3), (6, 5, 4), (6, 4, 5), (6, 3, 6),

(T, H, x), (H, T, x) or (T, T, x)

in which x can be 4, 5 or 6. This yields 9 outcomes. Therefore

5. These 7 symbols have 7! = 5, 040 permutations or arrangements.

11. Because order is important, the number of possibilities is

12. (a) The number of choices is

17. The number of outcomes of ipping ve coins is 25 = 32.

23. Taking order into account, there are

N0 =10 P5 = 30, 240.

Then X = 1860480 - 30240 = 1830240.

(4 C2 )(48 C3 ) + (4 C3 )(48 C2 ) + (4 C4 )(48 C1 ) = 108, 336.

57 + 7(56 ) = 187, 500

outcomes. Then, since the total number of outcomes of seven rolls is

Section 4 Conditional Probability

3. Flip four coins. There are 24 = 16 outcomes.

Section 5 Independent Events

Now observe that

Finally, E U has 26 outcomes in it, so

HHHH, HHHT, HHT H, HT HH, T HHH, HHT T,

The probability of a head is 0.4, so the probability of a tail must be 0.6.

Pr(at least two heads) = (0.4)4 + 3(0.4)3 (0.6)

The probability of getting exactly two heads is

Pr(exactly two heads) = 6(0.4)2 (0.6)2 ,

which is approximately 0.3456.

Pr(exactly two red marbles in three draws)

This is approximately 0.081.

Section 6 Tree Diagrams

As a check, notice that these probabilities sum to 1.

Figure 1: Tree diagram for Problem 1, Section 6.

1/4 bicycle 1/2

Figure 2: Tree diagram for Problem 3, Section 6.

Table 1: Information for Problem 1, Section 7.

5. From the tree diagram in Figure 3, we read the following probabilities:

Section 7 Bayess Theorem

Figure 3: Tree diagram for Problem 5, Section 6.

Table 2: Percentages of workforce and products defective, by group (Problem

3. Display the information of the problem:

Table 3: Information for Problem 3, Section 7.

(b) Now compute

Since there are 27 = 128 outcomes, then

(10)(10 C2 ) +10 C3 = 570.

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