26/5/2017
The digitalization of
the energy sector will
provide the only sure-fire
route to decarbonization,
according to a leading
economist and energy
academic. Kelvin Ross
hears him explain why
28 Power Engineering International Moy 2017
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We IMll not solve climote chonge with hove to. because we are not making enough
\\ existing technologtes. So says Dieter
Helm. ProfessOf of Energy Policy at the
UK's Oxford Unive<~ty.
Prof Helm believes thot
d ig italization. robotics. artfficiol
intelligence and 30 printing IMll all chonge
the face of energy.
"These ore dromatic chonges. Everything
digital is electric. therefore the future of energy
is going to be much more about electricity
then it hos been in the past. The general trend
tells you thot if ycu want to address climote
change in particular. Of' energy usage or
energy policy. irs electricity ycu should start
\Mth."
Helm, who is on economist and a former
special advisor to the European Commissioner
for Energy. says that decorbonization "is
unstoppable" but is highly critical of many
decarbonization policies. "We have spent a
lot of money on addressing c limate change
- but we could do better. and indeed we
globol progress on c limote chonge."
He soys he is quite optimistic about haw
we crock decarbonizotion - but not in the
conventional way".
"Technology is what is going to drive
through decarbonization. Top level
ogieements like Paris - whether they're good
or bod - are not going to solve the problem."
But he adds thot we will not solve c limote
change with existing technologies. I don't
think technology is going to solve everything.
but I do think that ifs a bet thot we hove no
option but to pursue.
"The costs of R&D and the costs of
developing next-generation technolog""'
are pretty low compared with the cost of
deploying existing technologies. some of
them very e xpensive".
He says thot "there are only four ways of
doing low carbon": nuclear. hydropawer.
geothermal and solar.
He swiftly dismisses the first three. On
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26/5/2017 May2017PrintPages

European Energy Trends

nuclear: 1 doubt anyone believes we ore going to build several

hundred big nuclear reactors in the next 20 or 30 years - we ore
Kelvion
struggling to build just one or more in Britain and many other countnes
hove given up." On hydro: A lot of the best stuff hos been done and
a lot of the future hydro is quite questionable from on environmental
point of view." And geothermal potentially oould really help, on the
heating side in porticulor. but it's located where volcanoes and crocks
in the earth's crust tend to be. so it really requires other technologies".
That leaves solar. vou hove to soy that solar is where you would
wont to chuck some R&D money; said Helm. Why? Because it is Experts in Heat Exchange -
effectrvely infinite: He said further scientific research was clearly
since 1920
needed to be able to harness more of the sun's power.so we need a
scienoe budget. We hove to be able to do that if we ore going to hove
enough low carbon energy to make a difference to climate change. YOU GENERATE
Id throw a billion at that rather than a billion offshore any day:
Helm was speaking at on event in London to promote his latest ENERGY-
book. Bum Out - The Endgame for Fossil Fuels. in which he outtines the
energy industry of the future.
WE MAKE SURE
He has never subscribed to the notion of fossils fuels running dry
arry time soon: ~The peak oil idea is nonsense. There's more than
IT HAPPENS
enough oil and gas to fry the planet many times over. Whether it lasts
another 100 years or 1SOyears 1s irrelevant:
EFFICIENTLY
In the book. he is very bleak about the future prospects of the
Middle East - particularly Saudi Arabia - and very bullish about the Urbanization, the scarcity of resources, and
prospects for the US. He says Donald Trump is a very lucky president, climate change p resent major challenges when
in energy terms, it comes to even greater efficiency in generating
He orrrves otter Oboma presided over the largest increase in fossil
e nergy. Ke lvion is the experienced partner at
fuels that America hos seen since the Second World War. Obomo is the
your side for all heat exchange- related process
'Fossil Fuel President'. Cut the rhetoric - that's whet he presided over.
es in both conventional and alternative energy
America is nearly on course to having rough energy independence:
systems - with out standing reliability, availability,
it hos abundant gas. it con re-shcre the petrochemical industry: and
and an unyielding pursuit to cut your l ife- cycle
technology will bring bock companies anyway because no longer
costs to the core. www.kelvlon.com
they need cheap labour overseas because of digitalization."
Indeed, Helm cannot overstate the importonoe to the energy
landscape of new technologies.
These new robotic technologies.Al. 30 p rinting - all ore zero margin
oost. The electricity market in the wo~d I am describing is a capacity M eet the Experts in
world. net a wholesale variable oost world. Yet the entire structure of Heat Exchange:
the electricity industry and almost all the policy is based on the idea Power-Gen Europe,
Booth: J28
that what really matters is the wholesale prioe. And it doesn't as we go June 27 - 29, 2017
fol'\'v"Clrd. It won't go to zero. It still balances the market. But it becomes
less and less important:
He said a fixed-price oopocitywo~d "is a securitizotion utility world.
This is a very different model and vertical integration has no sense in
this model whotsoeve<. The strategies that may hove worked in the
post no longer work:
Therefore, he said utilities would continue to break themselves up
- they divest of components.And you get lots of new entrants coming
into the market. In five to ten years' time it will be a very quaint idea
that you just sell electricity and gas. It's a ll about new companies - the
game hos changed.
The most likely players on the energy pitch in ten to 15 years' time
ore oomponies that you've never heard of:

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