Professional Documents
Culture Documents
CSIR
Dr Tobias Bischof-Niemz
Chief Engineer
CSIR delegation
2
Agenda
Background
Summary
3
World:
In 2016, 124 GW of new wind and solar PV capacity installed globally
Solar PV
Global annual new capacity in GW/yr
Wind
124
120
91
57 70
76 73
71
40
56 31
30 38 Total South African
46
17 power system
7
33 (approx. 45 GW)
22 7 63
17 51 54
3 39 39 41 45
8 9 9 13 2 35
7 1 27
4 0 70 1 1 12 15 20
4 0 7 8 8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
120 124
100%
91
57 70
76 73
71 65%
40
56 31
30 38
46
17 Total South African
33 7
power system
7 22 7 63 (approx. 45 GW)
4 9 13 17 51 54
0 9 3 39 39 41 45 22%
0 8 1 2 35
7 1 1 27
4 0 15 20
7 8 8 12
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Capacity
online in MW
(end of year)
+1 094
3 134
+520 Supply
1 474 Sources
+1 053 2 040
Solar PV
1 520
965 Wind
CSP
960
1 460
467 1 075
210 560
257 200
6 Notes: RSA = Republic of South Africa. Solar PV capacity = capacity at point of common coupling. Wind includes Eskoms Sere wind farm (100 MW)
Sources: Eskom; DoE IPP Office
South Africa:
In 2016, almost 7 TWh electricity produced from wind, solar PV & CSP
Annual energy
produced in TWh
6.9
Supply
2.6 Sources
4.7
Solar PV
2.2
Wind
CSP
2.2 3.7
1.1
2.5
0.01 0.1 0.05 1.1
0.5
Annual
electricity
in TWh
3.7 (1.6%) 2.6 (1.1%) 0.5 (0.2%) 238.2
231.3
Background
Summary
12
Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) aims for optimal electricity mix for RSA
In-principle process of IRP planning and implementation
Inputs Output
Planning / Demand forecast IRP Model Capacity exp. plan
Technology costs (PLEXOS) After policy
simulation assumptions adjustment: IRP
(techno-economical
world
Installed capacity
CO2 limits
Total installed
net capacity in GW
least-cost optimisation)
100
85.7
Solar PV
8.4
80
1.2 CSP
9.2
Wind
4.8
60 Hydro
Etc.
9.6
+1.8 Nuclear
42.2 7.3 Peaking
2.1 2.4
40 1.8 Gas
2.4
20 35.9
41.1 Coal
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Inputs Outcomes
Actuals / Procurement Preferred bidders
Ministerial
(competitive tender MW allocation
real world Determinations based
e.g. REIPPPP, coal IPPPP) Technology costs
on IRP capacities
actuals ( Tariffs)
13
Sources: CSIR analysis
IRP process as described in the Department of Energys Draft IRP 2016
document: least-cost Base Case is derived from technical planning facts
Scenario 1
Scenario 2
Constraint:
RE limits Case Cost
Constraint: 1) Public consultation
Forcing in Base Case Base on costed scenarios
Planning
Facts of nuclear, Scenario 1 Base + Rxx bn/yr
Least Cost
CSP, biogas, 2) Policy adjustment
Base Case Scenario 2 Base + Ryy bn/yr
hydro, others of Base Case
Scenario 3 Base + Rzz bn/yr
Constraint: 3) Final IRP
Advanced CO2
cap decline
Scenario 3
14
Sources: based on Department of Energys Draft IRP 2016, page 7; http://www.energy.gov.za/IRP/2016/Draft-IRP-2016-Assumptions-Base-Case-and-Observations-Revision1.pdf
The CSIR has embarked on power-system analyses to determine the
least-cost expansion path for the South African electricity system
The Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) is the expansion plan for the South African power system until 2050
Starting point of the IRP Base Case: pure techno-economic analysis to determine least-cost way to supply electricity
Later process steps: least-cost mix can be policy adjusted to cater for aspects not captured in techno-economic model
Draft IRP 2016 Base Case entails a limitation: Amount of wind and solar PV capacity that the model is allowed to build per
year is limited, which is neither technically nor economically justified/explained (no techno-economical reason provided)
The CSIR is therefore conducting a study to determine the Least Cost electricity mix in RSA until 2050
Majority of assumptions kept exactly as per the Draft IRP 2016 Base Case
First and most important deviation from IRP 2016: no new-build limits on renewables (wind/solar PV)
Second (smaller) deviation: costing for solar PV and wind until 2030 aligned with latest IPP tariff results
Scope of the CSIR study: purely techno-economical optimisation of the costs directly incurred in the power system
Two scenarios from the Draft IRP 2016 are compared with the Least Cost case
Draft IRP 2016 Base Case new coal, new nuclear
Draft IRP 2016 Carbon Budget significant new nuclear
Least Cost least-cost without constraints
An hourly capacity expansion and dispatch model (incl. unit commitment) using PLEXOS
15
is run for all scenarios to test for technical adequacy same software platform as by Eskom/DoE for the IRP
Sources: CSIR analysis
CSIR uses an industry standard software package for expansion
planning of the power system same package as used by DoE/Eskom
Commercial software used by DoE & CSIR covers all key cost drivers of a power system
Co-optimisation of long-term investment & operational Costs covered in the model include
decisions in hourly time resolution from today to 2050 All capacity-related costs of all power generators
What mix to build? CAPEX of new power plants (R/kW)
How to operate the mix once built? Fixed Operation and Maintenance (FOM)
Objective function: least cost, subject to an cost (R/kW/yr)
adequate (i.e. reliable) power system All energy-related costs of all power generators
Variable Operation and Maintenance (VOM)
cost (R/kWh)
Fuel cost (R/GJ)
Efficiency (heat rate) losses due to more flexible
operation
Reserves provision (included in capacity costs)
Key technical limitations of power generators covered
Maximum ramp rates (% of installed capacity/h) Costs not covered in the model currently used are
Minimum operating levels (% of installed capacity) Any grid-related costs (note: transmission-level
Minimum up & down times (h btw start/stop) grid costs typically ~10-15% of generation costs)
Start-up and shut-down profiles Costs related to add. system services (e.g. inertia
16 requirements, black-start and reactive power)
Sources: CSIR analysis
CSIR team has significant expertise from power system planning,
system operation and grid perspective
Background
Summary
18
Agenda
Background
Summary
19
IRP 2010 forecasted steep cost decline for solar PV from 2010 to 2030
Tariff in R/kWh
(Apr-2016-Rand)
4.0
Assumptions: IRP 2010 - high
3.5 Assumptions: IRP 2010 - low
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
22 Notes: REIPPPP = Renewable Energy Independant Power Producer Programme; BW = Bid Window; bid submissions for the different BWs: BW1 = Nov 2011; BW2 = Mar 2012; BW 3 = Aug 2013;
BW 4 = Aug 2014; BW 4 (Expedited) = Nov 2015 Sources: StatsSA for CPI; IRP 2010; South African Department of Energy (DoE); DoE IPP Office; CSIR analysis
Actual solar PV tariffs quickly moved below IRP 2010 cost assumptions
Tariff in R/kWh
(Apr-2016-Rand)
4.0
3.65 Assumptions: IRP 2010 - high
3.5 Assumptions: IRP 2010 - low
= 2.8 GW Actuals: REIPPPP (BW1-4Exp)
3.0
2.5 2.18
2.0
1.5 1.17
0.91
1.0
0.5
0.62
0.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
BW1 BW 4 (Expedited)
23 Notes: REIPPPP = Renewable Energy Independant Power Producer Programme; BW = Bid Window; bid submissions for the different BWs: BW1 = Nov 2011; BW2 = Mar 2012; BW 3 = Aug 2013;
BW 4 = Aug 2014; BW 4 (Expedited) = Nov 2015 Sources: StatsSA for CPI; IRP 2010; South African Department of Energy (DoE); DoE IPP Office; CSIR analysis
IRP 2016 increases cost assumptions for solar PV compared to IRP 2010
Tariff in R/kWh
(Apr-2016-Rand)
4.0
3.65 Assumptions: IRP 2010 - high
3.5 Assumptions: IRP 2010 - low
= 2.8 GW Assumptions: IRP 2016 - high
3.0
Assumptions: IRP 2016 - low
2.5 Actuals: REIPPPP (BW1-4Exp)
2.18
2.0
1.5 1.17
0.91
1.0
0.5
0.62
0.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
BW1 BW 4 (Expedited)
24 Notes: REIPPPP = Renewable Energy Independant Power Producer Programme; BW = Bid Window; bid submissions for the different BWs: BW1 = Nov 2011; BW2 = Mar 2012; BW 3 = Aug 2013;
BW 4 = Aug 2014; BW 4 (Expedited) = Nov 2015 Sources: StatsSA for CPI; IRP 2010; South African Department of Energy (DoE); DoE IPP Office; CSIR analysis
IRP 2010 forecasted small cost decline for wind from 2010 to 2030
Tariff in R/kWh
(Apr-2016-Rand)
1.75
Assumptions: IRP 2010
1.50
1.25
1.00
0.75
0.50
0.25
0.00
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
25 Notes: REIPPPP = Renewable Energy Independant Power Producer Programme; BW = Bid Window; bid submissions for the different BWs: BW1 = Nov 2011; BW2 = Mar 2012; BW 3 = Aug 2013;
BW 4 = Aug 2014; BW 4 (Expedited) = Nov 2015 Sources: StatsSA for CPI; IRP 2010; South African Department of Energy (DoE); DoE IPP Office; CSIR analysis
Actual wind tariffs quickly moved below IRP 2010 assumptions
Tariff in R/kWh
(Apr-2016-Rand)
1.75
Assumptions: IRP 2010
1.52
1.50 Actuals: REIPPPP (BW1-4Exp)
= 4.0 GW
1.25
1.19
1.00
0.87
0.75
0.69
0.50 0.62
0.25
0.00
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
BW1 BW 4 (Expedited)
26 Notes: REIPPPP = Renewable Energy Independant Power Producer Programme; BW = Bid Window; bid submissions for the different BWs: BW1 = Nov 2011; BW2 = Mar 2012; BW 3 = Aug 2013;
BW 4 = Aug 2014; BW 4 (Expedited) = Nov 2015 Sources: StatsSA for CPI; IRP 2010; South African Department of Energy (DoE); DoE IPP Office; CSIR analysis
IRP 2016 increases cost assumptions for wind compared to IRP 2010
Tariff in R/kWh
(Apr-2016-Rand)
1.75
Assumptions: IRP 2010
1.52
1.50 Assumptions: IRP 2016 - high
= 4.0 GW Assumptions: IRP 2016 - low
1.25 Actuals: REIPPPP (BW1-4Exp)
1.19
1.00
0.87
0.75
0.69
0.50 0.62
0.25
0.00
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
BW1 BW 4 (Expedited)
27 Notes: REIPPPP = Renewable Energy Independant Power Producer Programme; BW = Bid Window; bid submissions for the different BWs: BW1 = Nov 2011; BW2 = Mar 2012; BW 3 = Aug 2013;
BW 4 = Aug 2014; BW 4 (Expedited) = Nov 2015 Sources: StatsSA for CPI; IRP 2010; South African Department of Energy (DoE); DoE IPP Office; CSIR analysis
Agenda
Background
Summary
29
Draft IRP 2016 limits the annual build-out rates for solar PV and wind
The imposed new-build limits for solar PV and wind mean that the IRP model is not allowed in any given
year to add more solar PV and wind capacity to the system than these limits
No such limits are applied for any other technology. No techno-economical reason/justification is provided
for these limits. No explanation given why the limits are constant until 2050 while the power system grows
Year System Peak New-build limit Relative new-build New-build limit Wind Relative new-build
Load in MW (as Solar PV in MW/yr limit Solar PV in MW/yr limit Wind
per Draft IRP) (as per Draft IRP) (derived from IRP) (as per Draft IRP) (derived from IRP)
2020 44 916 1 000 2.2% 1 600 3.6%
31
Sources: SolarPowerEurope; CIGRE; websites of System Operators; IRP 2016 Draft; CSIR analysis
Today: Both leading and follower countries are installing more new
wind capacity per year than South Africas IRP limits for 2030/2050
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
32
Sources: GWEC; CIGRE; websites of System Operators; IRP 2016 Draft; CSIR analysis
Solar PV penetration in leading countries today is 2.5 times that of
South Africas Draft IRP 2016 Base Case for the year 2050
70%
Germany
Spain Leader
60%
relative to system peak load
Italy
Total solar PV capacity
UK
50%
Australia Follower
Japan
40%
China Follower
India 2nd wave
30%
South Africa
South Africa IRP 2016 Base Case
20%
10%
0%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
33 Year
Sources: SolarPowerEurope; CIGRE; websites of System Operators; IRP 2016 Draft; CSIR analysis
Wind penetration in leading countries today is 1.7-1.8 times that of
South Africas Draft IRP 2016 Base Case for the year 2050
70%
Germany
Spain Leader
60%
relative to system peak load
Ireland
China
50%
Total wind capacity
India Follower
Brazil
40%
South Africa
South Africa IRP 2016 Base Case
30%
20%
10%
0%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
34 Year
Sources: GWEC; CIGRE; websites of System Operators; IRP 2016 Draft; CSIR analysis
Agenda
Background
Summary
35
Agenda
Background
Summary
36
Input as per IRP 2016: Demand is forecasted to double by 2050
Forecasted demand for the South African electricity system from 2016 to 2050
Electricity
in TWh/yr
550 522
500
450 428 Note: by 2050 the electricity
Demand
demand per capita would still be
400 less than that of Australia today
344
350
300 280
244
250
200
150
100
50
0
2016 2020 2030 2040 2050
37
Sources: DoE (IRP 2016); Eskom MTSAO 2016-2021; StatsSA; World Bank; CSIR analysis
Input as per IRP 2016: Decommissioning schedule for existing plants
Decommissioning schedule for the South African electricity system from 2016 to 2050
Electricity
in TWh/yr
550
500
450 Demand All power plants considered for
existing fleet that are either:
400 Existing supply 1) Existing in 2016
350 Solar PV 2) Under construction
CSP 3) Procured (preferred bidder)
300
259 Wind
250
Other
200 174 Peaking
150 Gas (CCGT)
100 82 Hydro+PS
Decommissioning of Nuclear
50 Eskoms coal fleet Coal
0
2016 2020 2030 2040 2050
38
Sources: DoE (IRP 2016); Eskom MTSAO 2016-2021; StatsSA; World Bank; CSIR analysis
Demand grows, existing fleet phases out gap needs to be filled
Forecasted supply and demand balance for the South African electricity system from 2016 to 2050
Electricity
in TWh/yr
550 522
500
450 428 Demand The IRP model fills the supply
gap in the least-cost manner,
400 Supply gap subject to any constraints
344 Solar PV imposed on the model
350
CSP
300 84 254 439
Wind
250
Other
200 Peaking
150 Gas (CCGT)
100 Hydro+PS
Decommissioning of Nuclear
50 Eskoms coal fleet Coal
0
2016 2020 2030 2040 2050
39 Note: All power plants considered for existing fleet that are either Existing in 2016, Under construction, or Procured (preferred bidder)
Sources: DoE (IRP 2016); Eskom MTSAO 2016-2021; StatsSA; World Bank; CSIR analysis
Inputs as per IRP 2016:
Key resulting LCOE from cost assumptions for new supply technologies
Lifetime cost
3.69
per energy unit1
Same assumptions used Fixed
(LCOE) in R/kWh
(Apr-2016-R) as per IRP 2016 2.89 (Capital,
O&M)
1.41 1.41
1.09
Variable
1.00
(Fuel)
0.62 0.62
Solar PV Wind Baseload Nuclear Gas (CCGT) Mid-merit Coal Gas (OCGT) Diesel (OCGT)
Coal (PF)
CO2 in kg/MWh
0 0 1 000 0 400 1 000 600 600
Tariff in R/kWh
(Apr-2016-Rand)
4.0
3.65 Assumptions: IRP2010 - high
3.5 Assumptions: IRP2010 - low
= 2.8 GW Assumptions: IRP 2016 - high
3.0
Assumptions: IRP 2016 - low
2.5 Actuals: REIPPPP (BW1-4Exp)
2.18
2.0
1.5 1.17
0.91
1.0
0.5
0.62
0.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
BW1 BW 4 (Expedited)
43 Notes: REIPPPP = Renewable Energy Independant Power Producer Programme; BW = Bid Window; bid submissions for the different BWs: BW1 = Nov 2011; BW2 = Mar 2012; BW 3 = Aug 2013;
BW 4 = Aug 2014; BW 4 (Expedited) = Nov 2015 Sources: StatsSA for CPI; IRP 2010; South African Department of Energy (DoE); DoE IPP Office; CSIR analysis
CSIR study cost input assumptions for solar PV:
Future cost assumptions for solar PV aligned with IRP 2010
Tariff in R/kWh
(Apr-2016-Rand)
4.0
3.65 Assumptions: IRP2010 - high
3.5 Assumptions: IRP2010 - low
= 2.8 GW Assumptions: IRP 2016 - high
3.0
Assumptions: IRP 2016 - low
2.5 Assumptions for this study
2.18
Actuals: REIPPPP (BW1-4Exp)
2.0
1.5 1.17
0.91
1.0
Tariff in R/kWh
(Apr-2016-Rand)
1.75
Assumptions: IRP2010
1.52
1.50 Assumptions: IRP 2016 - high
= 4.0 GW Assumptions: IRP 2016 - low
1.25 Actuals: REIPPPP (BW1-4Exp)
1.19
1.00
0.87
0.75
0.69
0.50 0.62
0.25
0.00
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
BW1 BW 4 (Expedited)
45 Notes: REIPPPP = Renewable Energy Independant Power Producer Programme; BW = Bid Window; bid submissions for the different BWs: BW1 = Nov 2011; BW2 = Mar 2012; BW 3 = Aug 2013;
BW 4 = Aug 2014; BW 4 (Expedited) = Nov 2015 Sources: StatsSA for CPI; IRP 2010; South African Department of Energy (DoE); DoE IPP Office; CSIR analysis
CSIR study cost input assumptions for wind:
Future cost assumptions for wind aligned with results of Bid Window 4
Tariff in R/kWh
(Apr-2016-Rand)
1.75
Assumptions: IRP2010
1.52
1.50 Assumptions: IRP 2016 - high
= 4.0 GW Assumptions: IRP 2016 - low
1.25 Assumptions for this study
1.19
Actuals: REIPPPP (BW1-4Exp)
1.00
0.87
0.75
0.69
0.62
0.50 0.62 0.62 0.62
0.25
0.00
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
BW1 BW 4 (Expedited)
46 Notes: REIPPPP = Renewable Energy Independant Power Producer Programme; BW = Bid Window; bid submissions for the different BWs: BW1 = Nov 2011; BW2 = Mar 2012; BW 3 = Aug 2013;
BW 4 = Aug 2014; BW 4 (Expedited) = Nov 2015 Sources: StatsSA for CPI; IRP 2010; South African Department of Energy (DoE); DoE IPP Office; CSIR analysis
CSIR study cost input assumptions for CSP:
Todays latest tariff as starting point, same cost decline as per IRP 2010
Tariff in R/kWh
(Apr-2016-Rand) For bid window 3, 3.5 and 4 Exp,
weighted average tariff of base Assumptions: IRP2010 - high
4.0 and peak tariff calculated on the
Assumptions: IRP2010 - low
3.55 assumption of 64%/36%
3.32 base/peak tariff utilisation ratio Assumptions: IRP2016 - high
3.5
3.11 Assumptions: IRP2016 - low
2.90
3.0 Assumptions for this study
Actuals: REIPPPP (BW1-4Exp)
2.5
2.02
2.0
1.5
1.20 1.20 1.20
1.0
0.5
0.0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Year
BW1 BW 4 (Expedited)
47 Notes: REIPPPP = Renewable Energy Independant Power Producer Programme; BW = Bid Window; bid submissions for the different BWs: BW1 = Nov 2011; BW2 = Mar 2012; BW 3 = Aug 2013;
BW 4 = Aug 2014; BW 4 (Expedited) = Nov 2015 Sources: StatsSA for CPI; IRP 2010; South African Department of Energy (DoE); DoE IPP Office; CSIR analysis
CO2 emissions constrained by RSAs Peak-Plateau-Decline objective
PPD that constrains CO2 emission from electricity sector
150
100
50
0
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Background
Summary
49
Overview of scenarios available for comparison
Difference to
Scenario Source Draft IRP 2016 Base Case
Total electricity
produced in TWh/yr
550 523
28 Solar PV
500 (5%)
93
CSP
450 431
22
(18%) Wind
400 39 Peaking
344 66 (7%)
350 13 33 Gas (CCGT)
33 (6%)
300 36 Hydro+PS
34
248 23 165 Nuclear
250 13 35
17 (32%)
15 Coal
200
Scenarios of the Draft IRP 2016 show the annual 150
235 229
new installed capacity per year per technology 100 207 159
(30%)
50
0
2016 2030 2040 2050
51
Sources: Draft IRP 2016, http://www.energy.gov.za/IRP/irp-presentaions/IRP-Update-Presentation-22-Nov-2016.pdf; CSIR analysis
Draft IRP 2016 Base Case is a mix of roughly 1/3 coal, nuclear, RE each
Total electricity
produced in TWh/yr
550 523
28
500 (5%)
93
450 431
(18%)
22
400 39
344 66 (7%)
350 13 33
36 33 (6%)
300
34
248 23 165
250 13 35
17 (32%)
15
200
150
235 229
100 207 159
(30%)
50
0
More stringent
2016 2030 2040 2050 carbon limits
Draft IRP 2016 Base Case Draft IRP 2016 Carbon Budget
Draft IRP 2016 Base Case Draft IRP 2016 Carbon Budget Least Cost
Draft IRP 2016 Base Case Draft IRP 2016 Carbon Budget Least Cost
149
150 150 150 52
135
129 25
16
111 22 93 535 GW
12 30 98 36 100
100 85 100 100 60
13 34 19
7 21 13 10
11 12 20 16
51 22 51 8 51
8 17 10 33
50 8 50 19 50 22 31 37
5 3 2 6 5 3 8 5 3
5 8 20 7 8 8 2 5
37 39 37 34
17 26 37 34 5 7 2 18
33 25 5
19 10 19 10
0 0 0
More stringent
2016 2030 2040 2050 carbon limits 2016 2030 2040 2050 2016 2030 2040 2050
No RE limits, reduced wind/solar PV costing, warm water demand flexibility
Note: REDZ = Renewable Energy Development Zones Solar PV Wind Gas (CCGT) Nuclear Plus 25 GW demand
55 Current REDZ cover 7% of South Africas land mass CSP Peaking Hydro+PS Coal response from residential
Sources: DoE Draft IRP 2016; CSIR analysis warm water provision
On request by the Ministerial Advisory Council on Energy (MACE) the
DoE re-ran the IRP 2016 Base Case without constraining solar PV/wind
Source: MACEs presentation during the IRP public consultations on 7 December 2016 in Johannesburg
56
Sources: http://www.energy.gov.za/IRP/irp-presentaions/Comments-on-IRP-2016-Draft-KabiSolar.pdf
The DoEs Unconstrained Base Case is similar to the CSIRs Least Cost
Source: MACEs presentation during the IRP public consultations on 7 December 2016 in Johannesburg
57
Sources: http://www.energy.gov.za/IRP/irp-presentaions/Comments-on-IRP-2016-Draft-KabiSolar.pdf
Draft IRP 2016 Base Case:
Nuclear and coal dominate the supply mix in 2050
Demand and Exemplary Week under Draft IRP 2016 Base Case (2050)
Supply in GW
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
58
Sources: CSIR analysis, based on DoEs Draft IRP 2016
Draft IRP 2016 Carbon Budget:
Nuclear dominates the supply mix in 2050, gas required for balancing
Demand and Exemplary Week under Draft IRP 2016 Carbon Budget (2050)
Supply in GW
120
110
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
59
Sources: CSIR analysis, based on DoEs Draft IRP 2016
Least Cost:
Solar PV and wind dominate supply mix in 2050, with excess at times
60
Sources: CSIR analysis
Total cost of power generation: Draft IRP 2016 Base Case R86 bn/year
more expensive by 2050 than Least Cost (without cost of CO2)
350 286
300 359
300
250
262
200
150 132
100
Note: Medium-term from 2016 to 2030 not in the main focus of a long-term IRP study
50
and therefore only indicative. Will be investigated in more detail in a separate sub-study.
0
61 2010 2016 2020 2030 2040 2050
Sources: CSIR analysis
Average tariff (without cost of CO2):
Draft IRP Base Case tariff 17 cents/kWh higher than Least Cost by 2050
1.4 1.34
1.3 +0.20
1.2 1.14 (+17%)
1.1
1.0 0.95
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6 Draft IRP 2016 Base Case
0.5 Draft IRP 2016 Carbon Budget
0.4 Least Cost
0.3
0.2 Note: Medium-term from 2016 to 2030 not in the main focus of a long-term IRP study
0.1 and therefore only indicative. Will be investigated in more detail in a separate sub-study.
0.0
63 2010 2016 2020 2030 2040 2050
Note: Average tariff projections include 0.30 R/kWh for transmission, distribution and customer service (todays average cost for these items) Sources: Eskom on Tx, Dx cost; CSIR analysis
Least Cost without renewables limits is R82-86 billion/yr cheaper by
2050 than IRP 2016 Base Case and IRP 2016 Carbon Budget case
Draft IRP 2016 Base Case Draft IRP 2016 Carbon Budget Least Cost
64 Coal Nuclear Hydro + Pumped Storage Gas (CCGT) Peaking Other Wind CSP Solar PV
Note: Average tariff projections include 0.30 R/kWh for transmission, distribution and customer service (todays average cost for these items) Sources: Eskom on Tx, Dx cost; CSIR analysis
Sensitivity on cost difference: Even if RE were 50% more expensive
than assumed, Least Cost is still cheaper than Draft IRP 2016 Base Case
Relative 0.8 60
RE/nuclear cost
80
0.7 86
(Today:
RE = 0.62 R/kWh, 100
Nuclear = 1.09 R/kWh
0.57)
0.6 120
Today (2016)
140
0.5 Study assumptions (2020-2050) 160
180
0.4 Relative
RE/coal cost 200
0.3 (Today: 220
65 RE = 0.62 R/kWh,
0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 Coal = 1.00 R/kWh
Sources: CSIR analysis
0.62)
Agenda
Background
Summary
66
Summary:
A mix of solar PV, wind and flexible power generators is least cost
Solar PV, wind & flexible power generators (e.g. gas, CSP, hydro, biogas, demand res.) is the cheapest new-
build mix for the RSA power system. It is cost-optimal to aim for >70% renewable energy share by 2050
This Least Cost mix is > R80 billion per year cheaper by 2050 than the current Draft IRP 2016 Base Case
Additionally, Least Cost mix reduces CO2 emissions by 65% (-130 Mt/yr) over the Draft IRP 2016 Base Case
Therefore: Avoiding CO2 emissions and least-cost is not a trade-off anymore South Africa can de-
carbonise its electricity sector at negative carbon-avoidance cost
The IRP and this analysis factor in all first-order cost drivers within the boundaries of the electricity system,
but not external costs and benefits of certain electricity mixes that occur outside of the electricity system
Deviations from the Least Cost electricity mix can be quantified to inform policy adjustments
(e.g. forcing in of certain technologies not selected by the least-cost mix like
coal, nuclear, hydro, CSP, biogas, biomass, etc.)
67 Note: Wind and solar PV would have to be 50% more expensive than assumed before the IRP Base Case and the Least Cost case break even
Sources: CSIR analysis
Re a leboha
Ha Khensa
Enkosi
Siyathokoza
Thank you
Re a leboga
Ro livhuha
Dankie
Siyabonga
68
Note: Thank you in all official languages of the Republic of South Africa