IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 14, No.

5; October 2007 1183

Component Reliability Modeling of Distribution Systems

Based on the Evaluation of Failure Statistics
Xiang Zhang and Ernst Gockenbach
Institute of Electric Power Systems, Division of High Voltage Engineering
Department of Electrical Engineering, University of Hanover
Callin Avenue 25A
D-30167 Hanover, Germany

ABSTRACT
The procedures of asset-management have been developed into a central element of
network operation and planning in liberalised electric markets of power supply for the
present. The method of asset management considers all relevant life cycle cost related
to the network equipment and provides strategies for reinvestment, maintenance and
fault elimination. However, the method requires practical information about the
available failure statistic from distribution networks, as well as about the reliability
evaluation of equipment installed in distribution network. For the quantitative
evaluation we collect failure record data of distribution networks in the special failure
statistic. Furthermore, this paper represents the first attempt at modeling the
component reliability for representative electrical components due to electrical stress,
mechanical stress, temperature and time, which takes general aging mechanisms of
insulating materials into consideration. Thus the proposed models provide reliability
estimates, e.g. failure probability and failure rate for distribution systems. These
models can be not only parameterized with a great deal of statistical data but also
determined by aging tests and breakdown tests being available for the probabilistic
assessment. Our results imply that the assessment approach for component reliability
will motivate a need for reasonable and accurate data at an early decision-making
stage in future deregulation of electric power market.
Index Terms Component reliability, distribution network, electrical component,
evaluation approach, failure statistic, modeling.

1 INTRODUCTION and time-consuming. The special aspect has such an adverse

IN liberalized markets, an optimized asset management
should consider the reliability of supply and other power
quality aspects as well as the reduction of maintenance and
capital costs. This is of great importance for operators of
distribution networks, since distribution networks have a
significant influence on both quality and costs of power
supply. In this area of conflict between supply quality and
cost effectiveness, a comprehensive asset management
procedure provides technical and economical information on
the equipment and on the entire network especially for
distribution networks that form the basis for planning and
entrepreneurial decisions.
The method of asset management in distribution networks
is required to consider a special aspect: the number of
installed equipment is far larger in distribution systems than in
transmission systems. Therefore, the individual monitoring
process for all equipment would be very costly
Manuscript received on 17 March 2006, in final form 5 April 2007.
impact on distribution systems that a considerable cost of
diagnosis would reach approximately 20 billion Euros in
Germany [1]. In general, the application of statistical method
is so necessary that numerous similar devices are assigned to
the same type of class. The quality characteristics of these
class types are considered in the input and output data on
outages and on availability of distribution networks.
It is often taken for granted that the lifetime of installed
electrical equipment is less than 40 years. Reaching the
moderate age of the electrical equipment, the reinvestment
of maintenance and replacement has to be considered. The
life span of 40 years for an electrical equipment means that
an annual ratio of the total reinvestment amounts to 2.5%.
However, in many enterprises, the annual expenditures for
maintenance and replacement average only 1%, which
corresponds to an expected lifetime for 100 years of the
electrical equipment. Owing to the limited reinvestments,
the age of the electrical equipment will increase. It is
indisputable that the age of electrical equipment endangers
the safety and reliability of power systems.

1070-9878/07/$25.00 2007 IEEE

1184 X. Zhang and E. Gockenbach: Component Reliability Modeling of Distribution Systems Based on the Evaluation of Failure Statistics

The aging phenomena and aging process of typical Table 1. The failure statistic [1]
insulating materials have been extensively detected under test electrical mechanical random
or working conditions [2-7]. However, most of these studies component failure location
failure failure failure
have been performed at the experimental level, only overhead
conductor (67%) 3% 64 % 33 %
considering specific failure mechanisms of insulating line
paper-cable (26%) 60 % 1% 39 %
materials. Moreover, they are performed in a fixed case
cable VPE-cable (16%) 35 % 1% 64 %
without any knowledge of the target application. Thus, sparse system joint (21%) 93 % 2% 5%
analysis of the experiment would produce incomplete aging termination (14%) 96 % 1% 3%
behaviors of electrical components for the distribution secondary
housing(28%) 1% 86 % 13 %
D-transformer (21%) 32 % 48 % 20 %
networks. substation
interrupter (20%) 48 % 41 % 11 %
To the best of our knowledge, this paper represents the circuit-breaker (37%) 9% 85 % 6%
primary evaluation of the historical failure data from T-transformer (25%) 20 % 67 % 13 %
switchgear
distribution networks. Subsequently we develop a reliability station
model of component by coupling the life model with the disconnector (14%) 4% 94 % 2%
probabilistic failure model. Therefore, our work should focus
not only on reflecting and responding to the way electrical
equipment fail but also on deducing the failure consequences The failure location is an equipment type such as circuit-
by connecting statistical data to durable evaluation models. breaker, transformer, cable, conductor etc. At every failure
Once the achieved evaluation of the failure statistic location, circuit-breakers, hausings, conductors, and paper-
contributes to a model of component reliability, the potential insulated populate the failure probabilities of 37%, 28%, 67%,
failure distributions will be determined by different equipment and 26% on their own component systems such as switchgear
types and service conditions. stations, secondary substations, overhead lines, and cable
systems respectively.
The information about the failure cause is of special
2 EVALUATION OF THE FAILURE importance since the consequences of failure can be
STATISTIC prophesied and the appropriate measures of maintenance may
The evaluation level of failure statistics depends heavily on be devised by evaluating it. The failure cause may identify the
quantity and quality of the acquired data. Up-to-date origin of detrimental effects, contributing to the failure of
documents [8] have collected lots of failure record data, being electrical components. In distribution networks, the primary
dependent more on the calendar year than on the component causes for failure are the decrease of electrical strength,
age. Moreover, operational experiences are not sufficient for thermal strength, mechanical strength and random failure.
these increasingly old components. Furthermore, certain Circuit-breakers, transmission transformers (abbreviation T-
information on specific damage data, especially without transformer) and disconnectors cause the primary failures in
disturbance of network operation, is often hard to acquire or switchgear stations, thus they are very maintenance-relevant.
even not available at all. Therefore, this research work is For circuit-breakers, more than 80% of failures are caused by
initiated to collect nearly 120.000 failure data of historical the decrease of mechanical strength whereas small-oil-volume
events in the special failure statistic from the year 1920 to circuit-breakers are primarily concerned with the leakage of
2005. The detailed failure statistic can provide information insulating oil. Except for the oil leakage, the contact erosion as
about the actual conditions of all electrical equipment whose well as defective protection & control system result in a bit
failure probability can be modeled as a function of operating decrease in circuit-breakers reliability. For T-transformers, the
history, operational stresses and component type. decrease of mechanical strength is the most frequent cause of
The information on each component is grouped into two failure, also yielding to the leakage of oil or the damage of metal
data fields: failure location and failure cause. As the evaluated shells to a large extent. The mechanical cycling of operation has
results of the failure statistic, failure location and failure cause a detrimental effect on disconnectors.
of distribution networks, detected during operation or Housings, distribution-transformers (abbreviation D-
maintenance activities, are presented in Table 1. In switchgear transformer) and load-interrupters are the main equipment for
stations and secondary substations, a majority of failure failure in secondary substations. The mechanical destruction,
causes, leading to events without disturbance of operation, can owing to the worse material of housing, is most commonly
be diagnosed at early stages during maintenance. In many found to occur at housings. As significant equipment, D-
cases, failures can therefore be prevented from spreading out transformers are affected in three ways by the degradation
to disturbances. Cable systems correspond to a special case stress. First, there is 48% of failure, mostly due to the leakage
that we can make repair or replacement only after each failure, of oil. Second, there is 32% of failure, due to electrical faults
and do no preventive maintenance at periodic times. Thus the during the normal operation of on-load tap changers. Third,
failure of cables is usually associated with disturbance. For there is an accidental voltage impulse on component. Load-
overhead lines, the analysis of failure data relates only to interrupters suffer from the contact erosion and contact
failures with disturbance of operation. deformation.
IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 14, No. 5; October 2007
Failures in cable systems happen mostly on cables
themselves and 21% on cable joints as well as 14% on
terminations. Of course, most of these events, which were
detected exclusively by experience, lead to disturbance of
operation. Both, cables and joints, are damaged by the
worsening of insulating materials. Cables also get often
troubled with excavation activities. Both paper-insulated
cables and VPE cables can be taken as an example.
The failures in overhead lines occur frequently on the
conductors. It is due to the fact that conductors are exposed to
the environment. Failures for conductors are often caused by
vegetation and also by atmospheric influences. Storms,
lightning and animals are also the major cause of stochastic
accidents for interrupters, transformers and housings.
3 MODELING OF THE COMPONENT
RELIABILITY
From the general degradation properties of electrical
components, it is known that the aging of electrical
components are often contribute to the failure due to the
presence of degradation stresses such as electrical, thermal,
mechanical and environmental stresses. The typical aging
processes of insulating materials are considered to be partial
discharge, formation of water trees and electrical and thermo-
chemical processes as well as wear-out processes.
In cable systems, the character of tree growth and the aging
of solid materials follow the inverse-power relationship [2,9].
Due to overheating, the failure may occur as a result of the
increased losses inside insulating materials [10,11]. The
behavior of a chemical-bond-breaking reaction can be expressed
by using the Arrhenius Model [9,12]. In oil-impregnated
transformers, much attention has been paid to the condition
diagnosis of the cellulose insulating materials (paper and
pressboard). The insulating paper around the conductors decays
if it has been previously aged due to the heat dissipation of
windings, the loss induced by eddy-current or the presence of
water [3, 4]. Thus, the effects of temperature and water on the
actual conditions of paper-insulated transformers can be
approximated by the Arrhenius Model, and by the Inverse
Power Model, respectively. For the development of the life
model, aging mechanisms of insulating gas and of solid
insulators used in gas-insulated switchgear, are reviewed. When
conducting particles are present in gas-insulated switchgears,
the dielectric strength of insulating gases and of solid insulators
tends to decrease with time if a voltage is applied [5,9]. This is
named the voltage-time characteristic of insulating gases, which
satisfies the empirical Inverse Power Model [5]. Corrosion is the
most adverse consequence of aging for conductors of overhead
lines. The amount of corrosion depends mainly on the
environmental conditions due to wind, storm or ice [6]. The
influences of mechanical stress and temperature on conductors
can be also described by the Inverse Power Model, and by the
Arrhenius Model [12, 13].
On the basis of the investigations, a thorough electro-
thermo-mechanical life model derives from a suitable
1185
combination of single-stress models, e.g. the Inverse-Power-
Model and the Arrhenius-Model. This can be simply done by
assuming that the aging rate under these combined stresses is
the product of the aging rates under each single stress:
L = L0 ( E / E0 ) (n bT ) (M / M 0 )m e BT , T = 1 / 0 1 / (1)
where E, M, T and L are the electrical, mechanical, thermal
stresses and lifetime, respectively. E0 and M0 are the scale-
parameters for the lower limit of electrical and mechanical
stresses respectively (below which the aging can be neglected)
and L0 is the corresponding lifetime. n, m and B are the
voltage-endurance coefficient, the mechanical stress-
endurance coefficient and the activation energy of thermal
degradation reaction, respectively. b is the correct coefficient
which takes into account the reaction of materials due to
combined stress application. and 0 are the absolute
temperature and the reference temperature.
Statistical treatment of aging test data is a fundamental
topic that the material endurance can be estimated by single or
multiple stresses. With regarding to the aging of insulating
materials, subjected to combined electrical, mechanical and
thermal stresses, the Weibull-function is generally used to
treat failure time obtained from aging tests. Therefore, an
accepted statistical model of determining the likelihood of
failure P at given stresses is compared with a shape parameter
and can be well described by
[
P( L) = 1 exp (L / L63% ) ] (2)
where L63% is the failure time for the failure probability of
63% as a function of the lifetime L, at which a fraction (1-
e 1 ) equal to 63% of the electrical components have failed.
The scale-parameter represents the component dispersion in
time-to-failure.
The Weibull-function for the probabilistic failure model
correlates well with stochastic accidents. The environmental
influences also have an exponential impact on the failure
probability, and chances of their appearance are assumed to be
constant. The only difference in the probabilistic failure model
arises from the choice of value.
A criterion for the aging of electrical components is
consistent with the electrical, thermal or mechanical stress.
The failure of an electrical component may occur if over-
voltage or mechanical stress is applied, or if the electrical
component is aged by temperature or time. Thus the lifetime
L63% can be explained by equation (1). For the estimation of
L63% in equation (2), the lifetime L for the failure probability
of 63% in equation (1) is substituted to determine the failure
probability of an electrical component under the influences of
aging and electrical, mechanical stresses:
E (n bT ) m
M L
P ( L ) = 1 exp e BT (3)
E0 M0 L0
1186 X. Zhang and E. Gockenbach: Component Reliability Modeling of Distribution Systems Based on the Evaluation of Failure Statistics

In this way, equation (3) becomes the probabilistic failure In our models, the other parameters of equation (1) may be
model for combined stresses. That is, a functional relationship significantly modified by different equipment types and
between the failure distribution and the applied stresses provides service conditions. For this purpose, the specific failure
life lines at different probabilities. It exhibits that temperature statistic [1] has been especially evaluated whereas the
has an exponential detrimental impact on failure probability - probability densities of failure are compared with the original
more than exponential results from temperature itself and less statistic for accurate and correct representation. In this way,
than exponential results from electric field strength. The failure the other parameters of equation (1) can be optimized as
probability is also detrimentally influenced by electric field reported in Table 3. If the actual data are derived from
strength and mechanical stress, and adversely affected by practical operations, these parameters of equation (1) may be
increasing lifetime. Finally, a positive effect of temperature is carefully chosen to match up with them.
observed in failure probability owing to the electrical threshold
stress for elevated temperatures. In this case, the electrical stress Table 3. The parameters of equation (3).
is not an aging factor but simply becomes the failure cause for
insulating materials extremely aged by temperature. component E M
It has to be mentioned that the statistical failure data of
Table 1 has been collected in such a way that various failure conductor 8.1 2.6 E0 22.5 M0 25 0C
causes can be traced back to the failure consequence on the housing 9.3 1.0 E0 22.5 M0 25 0C
failure location of their occurrence. For example, the failure of disconnector 7.1 1.0 E0 24.2 M0 25 0C
paper-insulated cables is caused by a random failure of 39% T-transformer 11.6 2.2 E0 6.8 M0 40 0C
and an electrical failure of 60%. Therefore, the resulting D-transformer 9.9 2.0 E0 7.4 M0 40 0C
failure probability of electrical components is derived from interrupter 13.3 2.1 E0 7.0 M0 40 0C
each pair of these elementary and independent failure causes. circuit-breaker 8.3 2.0 E0 7.2 M0 40 0C
The total failure probability Pl with l failure causes can be termination 9.2 1.3 E0 1.0 M0 60 0C
obtained by a simple mixture of the failure probabilities Pi for paper-cable 8.2 1.3 E0 1.0 M0 60 0C
i = 1, 2, ..., l, corresponding to each failure cause VPE-cable 6.6 1.5 E0 1.0 M0 60 0C

l l joint 4.5 1.3 E0 1.0 M0 60 0C

Pl = a
i =1
i Pi , a
i =1
i =1 (4)

Some external effects are also the major cause of the

where ai is the percentage of the i-th failure cause resulting
from Table 1.
4 APPLICATION OF THE MODELS
It is a more reliable approach to determine the parameters n
and m of equation (1) and of equation (2) directly through
aging tests and breakdown testes, respectively. On the basis of
the known parameter n, the thermal coefficient B and the
correct coefficient b of (1) can be obtained by aging tests at
two different temperatures. This can be realized by the
application of electrical stress, leading to failure if the
electrical component is aged by temperature.
One part of the parameters of equation (1) can be accepted
as shown in Table 2. Although these parameters depend on the
aging mechanism of insulating materials, every component
type has wide characteristic ranges which are hard to address
explicitly the component type. This reflects the ranges found
in a broad literature search [2,5, 14-26] which forms the basis
of Table 2.
random failure for cables, conductors, transformers and
housings, etc. This kind of failure is almost independent
from the aging of electrical components. Hence, the
frequency of its appearance is assumed to be constant. In
this case, the parameters of equation (3) are optimized at
= 1, = 25C, E = E0 and shown in Table 4. The Weibull-
function (3) can be oversimplified as an exponential
function by the parameters.
Having combined the operating conditions and the
typical parameters given by Tables 1 to 4, the calculated
probability densities of failure for different equipment in
overhead lines, cable systems, substations and switchgear
stations are shown in Figures 1 to 11, respectively. These
figures both present the results of the theoretical modeling
as described above and of the operating experience
documented in the specific statistic [1]. The double peaks,
especially for T-transformers and D-transformers, can be
observed in Figures 7 and 10. It is recognized from Tables
1 and 3 that this phenomenon is caused by the combined
mechanical and electrical effects.

Table 2. The parameters of equation (1). Table 4. The parameters of equation (3).

n m b (K) B (K) interrupter joint D-transformer VPE-cable

7.0 2.3 6000 17000 39 M0 39 M0 35 M0 31 M0

L0 (year) 0 (K) E0 (kV/mm) M0 (N/mm2) T-transformer housing paper-cable conductor

4.5104 298 5.0 2.410-4 29 M0 29 M0 25 M0 23 M0

IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 14, No. 5; October 2007 1187

0.08
0.12

probability density

probability density
0.04
0.06

0 25 50 75 100
0 15 30 45 60
year year
Figure 1. Conductor in overhead line: calculated (full line) and statistical
Figure 5. Termination in cable system: calculated (full line) and statistical
probability densities of failure.
probability densities of failure.

0.08
0.12
probability density

probability density
0.04
0.06

0 15 30 45 60
0 15 30 45 60
year
year
Figure 2. Paper-cable in cable system: calculated (full line) and statistical
Figure 6. Housing in secondary substation: calculated (full line) and statistical
probability densities of failure.
probability densities of failure.

0.1
0.08
probability density

probability density

0.05
0.04

0 15 30 45 60
0 15 30 45 60
year year
Figure 3. VPE-Cable in cable system: calculated (full line) and statistical Figure 7. D-transformer in secondary substation: calculated (full line) and
probability densities of failure. statistical probability densities of failure.

0.08 0.15
probability density
probability density

0.04 0.075

0 15 30 45 60 0 15 30 45 60
year year
Figure 4. Joint in cable system: calculated (full line) and statistical Figure 8. Load-interrupter in secondary substation: calculated (full line) and
probability densities of failure. statistical probability densities of failure.
1188 X. Zhang and E. Gockenbach: Component Reliability Modeling of Distribution Systems Based on the Evaluation of Failure Statistics
Table 5. Failure probabilities of electrical components.
0.1

probability density
failure probability failure probability
component
for 15 years for 30 years

termination 0.04 % 22 %
0.05
circuit-breaker 0.2 % 43 %
disconnector 0.8 % 66 %
housing 6% 28 %

0 15 30 45 60 interrupter 6% 46 %
T-transformer 7% 41 %
year
conductor 9% 21 %
Figure 9. Circuit-breaker in switchgear station: calculated (full line) and
joint 11% 76 %
statistical probability densities of failure.
D-transformer 14 % 53 %
paper-cable 17 % 64 %
VPE-cable 64% 100 %
0.08
probability density

It is known from [27,28] that the probabilistic failure

density f(t) and the failure rate h(t) can be determined by the
0.04 failure probability P(L):

f (t ) = d P (t > L ) / d t (5)

0 15 30 45 60
h ( t ) = d P ( t > L ) / [ 1 P ( t > L ) ] d t (6)
year
Figure 10. T-transformer in switchgear station: calculated (full line) and under the assumption that failures will immediately occur as
statistical probability densities of failure.
long as the variable t is larger than the lifetime L.
The mean time to failure is directly proportional to the
probability density of failure. According to [27], the expected
lifetime (L), standard deviation (L) and variation coefficient
0.1
(L) can be obtained by
probability density

0.05 ( L) =
Lf (L)dL
0
(7)

0 15 30 45 60
2 ( L) = [ L ( L)]2 f ( L)dL (8)
year 0
Figure 11. Disconnector in switchgear station: calculated (full line) and
statistical probability densities of failure. ( L) = ( L ) ( L ) (9)

and shown in Table 6. This is in line with the findings which

For many practical problems the Weibull-distribution is
considered as an appropriate model for describing the
accidental failures of electrical components. The Weibull-
distribution represents accurately the uncertainty of failure, at
least if failure records result from a large number of
independent failure events. For instance, the maximum failure
probabilities of electrical components for the first 15 and 30
years of operation are listed in Table 5. At early stages of
operation, VPE-cables, paper-insulated cables, D-
transformers, joints and conductors have higher failure
probabilities and are problematic in networks. Of course, these
problems are remedied quickly with technology changes by
the manufacturers.
are based on considerations of the critical physical
phenomena and on investigations of the statistical long-term
performance.
All failure rates are calculated regardless of the structure
of network, as the dimension of network is not considered
for calculation. Otherwise, it is hard to assess various
components among different electric power systems. At the
beginning of components lifetime, circuit-breakers,
disconnectors and terminations have an extremely low
failure rate shown in Figure 12. In accordance with a typical
wear-out failure mechanism, their failure rates will grow as
the component ages up to 20 years. This is a phenomenon
IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 14, No. 5; October 2007 1189

that circuit-breakers, disconnectors and terminations are

1
aged by the material fatigue under cyclic load. Mechanical
4 3 2 1
failure is considered to have occurred when the formed void

failure rate (1/year)

grows above the threshold value. Hence, the curves show
the rising characteristic so that the distinct dependency on
age is observable. For circuit-breakers, the leakage of oil is 0.5
most pronounced in hydraulic drive by way of normal
vibration or frequent operation. After a first peak, the failure
rate is brought down from 27.5% by rectifying the
protection & control systems and alternating the arc
chamber. Permanent damage is increasingly accumulated to 0
0 15 30 45 60
drives, eventually leading to failure. At ages higher than 40
year
years, circuit-breakers might not reliably operate as a further
rise in failure rate. Figure 12. Calculated failure rates for the different components. 1-circuit-
breaker; 2-VPE-cable; 3-termination; 4-disconnector.
Table 6. Expected Failure Rates and Lifetimes of the Electrical Components
as well as Standard Deviation and Variation Coefficient As displayed in Figure 14, the failure behavior of
expected
lifetime standard variation conductors and of paper-insulated cables differs from the
component failure rate
(year) deviation coefficient increasing failure rate. As a consequence of Table 1, paper-
(failures/year)
termination 0.25 33 4.32 0.13 insulated cables and conductors have such dependence on the
circuit-breaker 0.16 31 5.58 0.18 random failure that the failure rates are evenly distributed over
disconnector 0.23 28 4.58 0.16 the total operating time. In this case, conductors and paper-
housing 0.19 32 9.07 0.29
insulated cables have the minimum expected failure rates of
0.09 and 0.1 failures per year. Vegetative growth is the most
interrupter 0.25 29 7.04 0.24
adverse consequence of aging for conductors in overhead line.
T-transformer 0.18 29 9.82 0.33
conductor 0.09 25 18.98 0.57
joint 0.14 24 7.83 0.32
1.2
D-transformer 0.12 28 11.12 0.39
paper-cable 0.10 28 17.86 0.63 2
failure rate (1/year)

VPE-cable 0.25 22 12.27 0.55

Figure 13 exhibits the failure characteristics for T-
transformers, housings, D-transformers and load-
interrupters which have the obvious dependence on
component age. For transformers, the mechanical cycling
fatigue includes the leakage of oil on the one hand. On the
other hand, much attention has been paid to the condition
diagnosis of the cellulose insulating materials (paper and
pressboard). Due to the heat dissipation of windings, an
excessive electrical loading combined with temperature
may increase the dissipation factor of insulating materials.
Furthermore, on-load tap changers and load-interrupters are
aged by charge particles, existing in insulating materials. If
the electrical stress continues for a long time, partial
discharges produce so much decomposition that the
conductive paths are formed in dielectric materials and the
dielectric strength of insulating materials tends to wear
down with time. From Figure 13, the influence of
corrective maintenance can be clearly seen that the failure
rate increases until maintenance activities are made. By
exchanging the insulating oil, the failure rates of
transformers may be improved for a certain time. This
means that maintenance can decrease the failure rate,
resulting in the beneficial impact on reliability.
0.6 3
1
4
0
0 15 30 45 60
year
Figure 13. Calculated failure rates for the different components. 1-D-
transformer; 2- interrupter; 3-housing; 4-T-transformer.
It is recognized from Figure 12 that those VPE-cables of the
old generation from the year 1970 to 1980 are affected by the
rapid ageing. This reflects clearly on the worse failure rate of
VPE-cables than other types of cable. As shown in Figures 12
and 14 as well as Table 6, VPE cables demonstrate the
expected failure rate of 0.25 failures per year, a fourth of
which amounts to paper-insulated cables failure rate. For
medium-voltage cables, the development of water trees as a
major degradation phenomenon has become well-known, and
extensive research has been performed on modeling its
effects. In the presence of water, the corrosion of reinforcing
tapes and the change in the crystalline structure are the
1190 X. Zhang and E. Gockenbach: Component Reliability Modeling of Distribution Systems Based on the Evaluation of Failure Statistics
dominant aging factors of cables. When the current starts to
flow, the water tree can change finally into an electrical tree
and the dielectric strength rapidly decreases. By the
replacement of one piece of cable, the failure rate of VPE
cables can be improved after 20 or 25 years.
0.5
failure rate (1/year)
1 failures are stimulated due to the aging phenomena and the
2 decrease of reliability is very sharp. With declining stress and
0.25
3 rates are evenly distributed in the accidental events.
0 work attempts to integrate so sufficient failure data into the
0 15 30 45
year
Figure 14. Calculated failure rates for the different components. 1-joint; 2-
paper-cable; 3-conductor.
To investigate the influences of stress on the failure rate, we
choose four electrical equipment - VPE-cable, termination,
circuit-breaker and disconnector with the increasing failure
rate. As can be seen from Table 3, the characteristic
parameters for application correlate well with the temperature.
Therefore, the applied temperature may be divided into 60, 40
or 25 C respectively. At each temperature, electrical
components are influenced by the electrical stress, mechanical
stress or the combined interaction between both electrical and
mechanical stresses. At = 60C, VPE-cables with E = 1.5E0
and terminations with a = 96% (96% of failures is the
electrical failure) have the increasing failure rates as the result
of the high electrical stress. The deterioration of the materials
with inferior adhesive properties increases susceptibility to
thermal cycling failure. Even though circuit-breakers have the
lower electrical and mechanical stresses with E = 2.0E0 and M
= 7.2M0 than transformers, regular maintenances avoid
increasing the failure rate of transformers. The other reason to
remember is that more than 85% of accidental occurrences
result from mechanical faults as can be seen in Table 1. With
the distinctive parameter M = 24.2M0, the mechanical stress
has more significant impact on disconnectors.
5 CONCLUSION
On the basis of the aging mechanisms occurring in different
materials, simple phenomenological and statistical reliability
models are proposed in this work. The models provide a
means of connecting physical and statistical processes of
component failures. This approach appears to be a useful tool
to assess the component reliability, as it can clarify how those
consequences of failure result from different kinds of failure
cause.
Of the component reliability that is modeled, time-
dependent failure rate demonstrates the most significant result.
These results clearly show the dependency of the failure rate
on component age and on the maintenance history. Our results
also illustrate how the typical or worst-case operating
conditions influence the component reliability.
For disconnectors, terminations, VPE-cables and circuit-
breakers, the increasing failure rate proves that all future
low temperature the failure rates are lower for transformers
and housings. From the failure behaviors of overhead lines
and paper-insulated cables it can be concluded that the failure
The insignificant desire for choice of the model parameters
is to apply the reliability models. In light of this goal, this
60
reliability models that the model parameters have been
optimized with adequate accuracy. The aim of this paper is to
establish a reference system of the reliability models which
may also be applied for other utilities. It is not practical to
specify all the parameters for every example. If experiences
are obtained from other power systems, it may prove desirable
to supplement or modify the model parameters needed in a
particular application.
In practice however, each possible failure can be activated
in a defined usage interval and a component may have
different failure modes at different times. Therefore, a time-
step mixture of the reliability models could well result in a
fitting pattern of the failure rate.
ACKNOWLEDGMENT
This work is supported by the National Research Council of
Germany. The authors gratefully acknowledge assistance from
Research Institute for Electric System and Power Economy in
Mannheim, Germany for supplying the statistical data.
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Xiang Zhang received the B.Sc. and M.Sc. degrees in electrical
engineering from Xian Jiaotong University, Xian, China, in 1989 and
1992, respectively and the Ph.D. degree from the Aachen University of
Technology, Germany, in 2002. From 1992 to 1997 she was a research
engineer at Xian High Voltage Apparatus Research Institute, Xian,
China. Currently she is a research fellow working on asset management of
networks of the Schering-Institute of High Voltage Technology at the
University of Hanover, Germany. Her main areas of interest include high
voltage apparatus, gas discharge, arc modeling and asset management of
network.
Ernst Gockenbach (M83SM88F01) received the diploma and Ph.D.
degrees in electrical engineering from the Technical University of
Darmstadt, Germany, in 1974, and 1979, respectively. From 1979 to 1982,
he worked at Siemens AG, Berlin, Germany. From 1982 to 1990, he
worked with E. Haefely AG, Basel, Switzerland. Since 1990, he has been
professor and director of the Schering-Institute of High Voltage
Technology at the University of Hanover, Germany. He is member of
VDE and CIGRE, chairman of CIGRE Study Committee D1 Materials
and Emerging Technologies for Electrotechnology, and a member of
national and international Working Groups (IEC, IEEE) for
Standardization of High Voltage Test and Measuring Procedures.