Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Guwahati

URBAN CARRYING
CAPACITY
......concept & calculation
MoUD Sponsored Centre of Excellence for INTEGRATED LAND
USE PLANNING & WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
(ILPWRM)

2011-2012
 URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY 2011-2012

CONTENTS

Title Pg. No.

1. Introduction 3-5

1.1. Concept of carrying capacity 3

1.2. Sustainability and carrying capacity 4

1.3. Significance of carrying capacity 5

2. Urban carrying capacity 6-14

2.1. Urban area and carrying capacity 6

2.2. Concept of bioregion 7

2.3. Levels of carrying capacity evaluation in an urban area 7

2.4. Calculation of urban carrying capacity 9

3. SAFE carrying capacity model proposed by IIT Guwahati (CoE ILPWRM) 14-12

3.1. Introduction 14

3.2. Framework for calculation of carrying capacity 16

3.3. Application of the Concept to practical field: A case study of a pilot 17

Watershed in Guwahati City of Assam, India

References 23
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Chapter 1
INTRODUCTION

1.1. Concept of carrying capacity

The carrying capacity concept was pioneered by Thomas Malthus in the year 1798. He
predicted that the earth can only hold a definite amount of human growth for a definite
time. This concept holds a crucial position in determining the quality and state of an
ecosystem with respect to the pressures meted by the demands of the dwelling population.
It is basically an ecological concept that also embraces the socio-economic parameters.

If we go on defining carrying capacity then it will be a herculean task because the concept
itself is very vast and has different perspectives, like social, cultural, political, ecological etc.
In simple terms, the carrying capacity of an area can be defined as the maximum number of
people that can be supported by the environment of that area through optimum utilization
of the available resources.

In other words carrying capacity of an area refers to an extreme limit. This limit defines the
population carrying capacity of the area. If this limit is crossed then the nature will react by
imposing pressure to resist the abrupt growth and development of the people resulting
into equilibrium. These pressures can be in the form of floods, droughts, landslides, famine
etc.

Fig 1: Graph showing the relation between population rise & carrying capacity
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Carrying capacity is not fixed. It can increase or decrease phenomenally. There are many
factors that can influence the carrying capacity of a region. The pattern and extent of
resource usage serves to be the primary factor that affects the carrying capacity a lot. This
indeed depends highly on the socio-economic status of the people. Secondly, the use of
technology also influences the carrying capacity, i.e. if technology is used in a positive
manner than definitely the carrying capacity will get increased manifold or may be
degraded vice versa. Fig-1 shows the plot of population growth with time and various ways
that the population can reach the carrying capacity.

1.2. Sustainability & Carrying capacity

Ensuring sustainability of the resources is one of the biggest tasks of humankind for
humankind. The sustainability of an environment can be understood as its endurance
capability, i.e. making the resources available for usage forever. So, it can be well said that
sustainability can be measured by the carrying capacity. It is so because if the maximum
limit of resource is known then only an efficient usage policy could be formed that will
ensure future availability of the same.

Fig 2: Diagram showing the interaction between the three pillars of sustainability

Sustainability has three foundation bases; they are social, economic and environmental. So,
it is always advisable that the development people want should be sustainable or simply
sustainable development through adequate emphasis to all these three pillars and their
interactions so that an inherent balance can be maintained. Thus sustainable development
indirectly govern the carrying capacity.
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1.3. Significance of carrying capacity

The world is developing by leaps and bounds. Development is taking place at a faster pace.
As such the impact of this ever-increasing population-base combined with dangerously
depleted natural resources highlights the urgent need for changes in human lifestyles and
land-use patterns (Lane, 2009). However, it becomes imperative to know the limits up to
which development is feasible. The Ecological Footprint Atlas (2008) says, We cannot
make meaningful decisions about where we need to go before we know where we stand.
Thus there is an urgent need to locally estimate the carrying capacity. The carrying capacity
concept can be utilized in planning and development of urban areas to keep a balance
between built environment and natural environment which is currently a challenging task.
Under prevailing socio-economic conditions, the application of carrying capacity concept
enables to determine the optimum population that can be supported within a given area
with adequate infrastructure facilities so that development is environmentally hazard free
and sustainable.

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Chapter 2
URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY
2.1. Urban area & carrying capacity
An area is referred to be urban when it possesses features like high population density
coupled with great infrastructure facilities. The probable definition of an urban area varies
significantly between nations. In India, The Census of India, (1971) defines urban areas as:

i. all places with a Municipality Corporation or Cantonment or Notified Town

Area
ii. all other places which satisfied the following criteria:

a. A minimum population of 5,000.

b. At least 75% of the male working population should be non-agricultural.
c. Density of population is at least 400 per sq. Km. (i.e. 1000 per sq. Mile)

With an upsurge in economic growth, many rural areas, farmlands, country sides etc are
getting converted into Urban sprawls. Development is transforming natural sites into built
up area. The process of urbanization seems inevitable as cities and towns are growing
exponentially with increasing demand for urban area. The urban areas are the entities
which have great potential of exceeding the local carrying capacity because they require
enormous concentrations of food, water, and materials in a small area. The concentration
requirements may go far beyond the level provided by the local carrying capacity. Also this
high degree of consumption is associated with huge quantity of waste production and
sewage which cannot be properly assimilated within the local carrying capacity (Aspeslagh,
1994).

So, it is quite evident that urban ecosystems are the ones that are highly prone to these so
called, irreversible damages. To ensure more equitable and sustainable land-use patterns,
human ecologist Garrett Hardin (1986) recommends directly linking and limiting
populations to the regions which sustain them.

The urban carrying capacity can be defined as the level of human activities, population
growth, patterns & extent of land use, physical development, which can be sustained by the
urban environment without causing serious degradation and irreversible damage (Oh et.al.,
2002).
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2.2. Concept of Bioregion

A Bioregion is a cumulative term. Its a huge region that embraces an urban hub along
with its surrounding areas. According to Aspeslagh (1994), a bioregion is a distinct area
with coherent and interconnected human, plant and animal communities, and is defined by
a watershed or a set of interlinking watersheds.

Fig 3: Diagram of a bioregion (, CoE ILPWRM, IIT G)

This bioregion is continuously replenishing the ecological demands of the urban hub, thus
adding on to the overall urban carrying capacity. But with the prevailing scenario of urban
development, these bioregions are getting sparse and sparse day by day. So, there is an
urgent need to evaluate the urban carrying capacity by which a sustainable regime could be
planned.

2.3. Levels of carrying capacity evaluation in an urban area

The evaluation of urban carrying capacity is a pretty complex process. This complexity is
due to the fact that the capacity to support humans is determined not just by the basic food
requirements, but also by the various kinds of resources consumed, the many kinds of
wastes generated, different kinds of landuse conversions leading to ecological imbalance
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and the great variability in technology, institutions and lifestyles created. Aspeslagh (1994)
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defines six levels for evaluating carrying capacity of the urban areas. They are as follows:

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i. Infrastructural capacity level

ii. Institutional capacity level
iii. Perceptual capacity level
iv. Environmental capacity level
v. Sustainable capacity level
vi. Biocentric capacity level

Infrastructure capacity level: At this capacity level, the major factor of evaluation is the
infrastructure development. Here the intensity and pattern of resource usage is estimated
for the development of infrastructure like, water supply system, sewage system,
transportation system, waste disposal system, etc.

Institutional capacity level: The various legal and political frameworks that have been
made to limit urban activities are considered here. The level of enforcement of various acts
like Environment protection acts, Biodiversity conservations act, as well as zoning
regulations, building permits, landuse ordinances, etc are assessed to evaluate the carrying
capacity.

Perceptual carrying capacity: These constraints are generally perception based, i.e. they
reflect the idea of a common man towards its environment. The way of assessment is social
surveys whereby the basic thinking of people & their duties towards environment can be
evaluated.

Environmental capacity level: This level basically reflects the present state of the
environment with respect to productivity. One can easily understand the state of
productivity of the environment, e.g. agricultural productivity by evaluating the past data.
Another way of assessment is the availability of clean air & water, low pollution, etc.

Sustainable capacity level: The factors which are assessed at this level are long term
based. The basic resource flow through the urban area to its ultimate sink is evaluated at
this capacity level. Hence, an idea can be achieved corresponding to a particular resource as
how long it will be available for usage. If a resource is getting scarce then efficient steps
could be taken to sustain it for long.

Biocentric capacity level: This capacity level deal with ethics related to life on earth. At
this level the different threats are assessed which harm the integrity, stability and beauty of
the biotic community of an urban area. Unlike, the previous capacity levels that totally deal
with human & its need, this capacity level embraces all forms of life as well as their
requirements from the environment.
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2.4. Calculation of urban carrying capacity

Though it is evident that carrying capacity estimation serves to be one of the most crucial
answers to the question of sustainable development and thus to the very survival of
humankind, yet an irony remains. Carrying capacity is very difficult to estimate or calculate.
Arrow et.al. (1995) comment that carrying capacity is not static but is based on the
complex relation of preferences, application of technology and patterns of production &
consumption. They are also contingent on the state of interactions of the biotic and abiotic
environment. So the different workers have come up with various models which give an
idea about calculation of carrying capacity:

i. Graphical model
ii. Uni-constraint model
iii. IPAT equation
iv. Ecological footprint model
v. Energy analysis model
vi. Pressure-State-Response model

Graphical model:
This model is a graphical representation
where the population growth is plotted
against time. The population growth can be of
two types, i.e. exponential and logistic. If there
is no environmental resistance then the
population growth trend is always
exponential, which eventually leads to
population explosion and ecological
malfunctioning. The environmental resistance
comes into play when the population exceeds
the carrying capacity. Hence, due to the
property of resilience the environment tends
to stabilize. Thereby equilibrium is achieved
Fig 4: Graph showing the population growth forms
in the population growth form, i.e. logistic growth
form.

Based on demographic data the urban carrying capacity can be calculated using this model.
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Uni constraint model:

A constraint is an information key that tells us about the likelihood of limits. In this
particular model a single constraint is considered and the entire estimation is based on the
assumptions circling the considered constraint. The population constraints can be food,
shelter, clothing etc. But one at a time can be considered in this model. As for example, if
one considers the constraint of food, then the estimation of carrying capacity would involve
the amount of available farmland, the average yield of crops, the prevalent diet, and the
amount of calories to be provided to each person each day.

IPAT equation:

It is a multi constraint model that uses different factors in calculating the carrying capacity.
This mathematical equation is one of the most pioneering attempts to estimate the level of
environmental degradation by the dwelling population in an urban area that incorporates
the usage of multiple factors or constraints.

I=P x A x T

Here, I refers to the Impact on the environment, P refers to the size

of the human population, A refers to the affluence or the level of
consumption by that population and T refers to the processes used to
obtain resources and transform them into useful goods and wastes.

The IPAT equation, thus gives an idea about the cumulative or associated impacts of
the population, its resource usage patterns and technological interventions on the
environment. It does not give any information on the sustainable limits, i.e. optimum
carrying capacity but it surely gives a useful framework in thinking about ways of
reducing environmental impacts by reducing various types of throughput. Hence one
gets an indirect approach of estimation of carrying capacity by understanding the
level of environmental degradation.
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Ecological Footprint model:

This is one of the most accepted models to calculate carrying capacity of an urban
area. The model was developed by Mathis Wackernagel at the University of British
Columbia, Canada as PhD dissertation
(1990-94) under Prof. W.E.Rees. Initially
they called the concept appropriated
carrying capacity, which was later on
termed as ecological footprint to make
the concept more understandable and
accessible. The ecological footprint is a
measure of the human demands on the
biosphere. This model gives an idea about
the amount of biologically productive land
and water area required to produce all the
resources needed by the population for its Fig 5: Illustration of the ecological footprint concept
consumption and developmental activities
as well as to absorb the wastes generated.

The ecological foot print model is based on the data generated from resource
accounting. The different nations in the world are following a resource accounting
plan whereby they have categorized their total ecologically productive land into 6
areas. As such, six types of ecologically productive areas are distinguished in
calculating the ecological footprint:

Arable land

Pasture

Forest

Ocean

Built-up land &

Fossil energy land

An ecologically productive area can be define as an area that produces the resources
required by its dwelling population as well as absorbs the wastes generated by the
same. Since, ecological footprint and carrying capacity are both measured in the
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same units, they can be compared directly. If the ecological footprint of a region is
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larger than the carrying capacity, the region runs an ecological deficit. On the

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 URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY 2011-2012

contrary, if the carrying capacity of a region is larger than the ecological footprint,
the region runs an ecological remainder. At the end of the resource accounting
survey for ecological footprint determination, the values are converted into a
normalized measure of land area called global hectares (gha).

According to the Ecological footprint analysis done in the year 1997, the world
average of ecologically productive land per person is 2 ha without considering the
area required for reserved conservation lands. If we consider that then the figure
comes to about 1.7 ha/person.

For 2005, humanitys total ecological footprint was estimated at 1.3 planet Earths, i.e.
humanity uses ecological services 1.3 times as fast as earth can renew them.
(http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological foot print).

Fig 6: Graph showing the Ecological footprints of different nations along with the
available ecological capacity (from Campbell, 6th Ed.)

The above graphical representation reveals the condition of 13 countries and the
whole world with reference to their ecological footprints in 1997. USA was having a
larger ecological footprint with respect to its available ecological capacity, i.e. it was
facing an ecological deficit in the year 1997. However, New Zealand was having an
ecological remainder in the same year. Our country India was just at the threshold
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level in the same year.

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Energy analysis model:

This model was developed by Odum. It is a quantitative measure of the resources required
to develop a product, whether it is a mineral resource, a biological resource or a
commercial product; and it expresses the resources in units of one type of energy, usually
solar energy. It provides a bridge between ecological and economic systems. As a helpful
tool for evaluating rational use of natural resources, it provides a system for quantifying
facts for evaluating environmental resources (Zhao et.al. 2005)

Pressure-State-Response model:

The PSR model is a framework developed by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation
and Development (OECD) that provides a mechanism to monitor the environment. It is
basically a socio-economic concept that tends to investigate and analyze the processes
involved in environmental degradation. This framework is based on the fact that human
exert pressure on the environment by their activities which results in the radical change
of the state of the environment. This changed environment state puts impacts on the
human population in the form of some disasters that lead to the origin of responses
which intend to prevent, reduce or mitigate the environmental and socio-economic
damage. The PSR framework is based on some indicators that form an integral part of the
whole analysis.

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Fig 7: Diagrammatic representation of the Pressure-State-Response model

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Chapter 3
SAFE CARRYING CAPACITY MODEL PROPOSED BY COE (ILPWRM)
AT IIT GUWAHATI

3.1. Introduction
After reviewing all existing concepts and methods of evaluating carrying capacity, Center of
Excellence (CoE) for Integrated Landuse Planning and Water Resources Management
(ILPWRM) at IIT Guwahati has come up with a new method especially suitable for eco-
sensitive urban areas. The method was first developed for calculating carrying capacity of
hilly urban area that will ensure hazard free sustainable urban development. However the
concept can be applied to any urban area. Here, the basic concept of ecological footprint is
first used to decide a trial sustainable carrying capacity of a watershed or cluster of
watersheds covering the urban area or expected urban area under consideration.
Watershed boundary covering extent of potential urban expansion or the urban planning
area is considered here as system boundary and interaction with bioregion can indirectly
be included through concept of regional planning. Following this, a trial carrying capacity is
first determined by allocating population and infrastructures iteratively, so that the
infrastructures provided remain sufficient to cover the virtual footprint of the allocated
population. Feedback of the urban watershed is then analyzed through model study after
virtual accommodation of this trial carrying capacity in the model. Feedback can be
assessed in terms of several case-specific performance criteria to ensure that the area
remain hazard free. In case of inadequacy, technological intervention is first tried to make
it adequate. After ensuring that state of the art technological intervention is also
insufficient to meet the set performance criteria, the trial carrying capacity is adjusted
iteratively to arrive at an acceptable carrying capacity by reducing floor area ratio (FAR),
which also indirectly determines the actual and logical FAR for the urban area. For example
performance criteria can be accepted limiting values for sediment yield and water yield
from the urban watershed so that flooding at downstream can be eliminated. Putting these
limits as constraints one can arrive at the acceptable carrying capacity iteratively by
analyzing feedback of the urban watershed in terms of these performance criteria. As the
method finally accommodates a sustainable population iteratively through trial allocation
and feedback analysis, the method is named as Sustainable Accommodation through
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Feedback Evaluation (SAFE)

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3.2. Framework for calculation of carrying capacity using method of

Sustainable Accommodation through Feedback Evaluation (SAFE)
To elaborate the steps involved in calculation of carrying capacity by the proposed SAFE
method, step by step procedure is presented below with example of development of a hilly
urban watershed.

Step 1: Delineation of the urban watershed: In this step the hilly watersheds covering
the potential urban area are delineated from DEM or marked from the city master plan
following natural drainage network.

Step 2: Demarcation of the developable & non-developable area: The hills consist of
both developable areas & areas having less scope for development, i.e. non developable
areas. In this step, the non-developable areas of the delineated hilly region are demarcated
using latest geospatial tools. The non-developable areas mainly consist of land with high
slope, reserved forest areas, water bodies, stream lines, drainage channels, springs,
depressions, etc. Thus the usable areas with respect to various developmental activities can
be marked out.

So, AU= AD+AND ... (i)

Therefore, AD= AU - AND ............. (ii)

Here, AU is the total hilly urban area, AD is the net developable area and AND is
the net non developable area.

Step 3: Determination of area required for different infrastructure and facilities:

Now within the developable regions of the hilly urban areas, several sub-regions are
allotted for various urban infrastructure and facilities development like, water treatment
plants, sewage treatment plants, drainage, commercial hubs, heath centers, educational
institutions, recreational areas, transport facilities etc. For calculating these areas the
regional planning approach is adopted as a tool. For example, an urban centre with a
population of 1000 will not need a solid waste dumping site; rather a provision of solid
waste dumping can be kept by tying with the regional dumping site. Space required for
different infrastructure can be determined through site specific requirement. The standard
space requirement index of the UDPFI guidelines of the Ministry of Urban Development,
Government of India can also be used as a guideline for calculating the required space for
various infrastructure developments.

So, AD= AIF + AR ................ (iii)

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Here, AIF is the area for infrastructure development and AR is the area for
residential requirements.

Step 4: Calculation of the available residential area: The net residential area available
for settlement development can be calculated using the following equation:

From (i) & (iii) AU = AND + AIF + AR

Therefore, AR = AU (AND+ AIF)

Step 5: Socio economic survey of the urban region & calculation of the floor area
requirement of the people: A thorough demographic and socio economic survey of the
hilly urban area should be done to estimate an average floor area requirement per head of
the people dwelling there. In this regard the national floor area standard values (MoUD,
GOI) can be consulted to get an understanding of the same. The floor area requirement of
the people will greatly vary with respect to economy and lifestyle of the people living there.

Step 6: Determination of the Floor Area Ratio: Floor Area Ration is defined as:

FAR= AF/AP

Where, FAR is the Floor Area Ratio, AF is the total floor area and AP is the
area of the plot.

FAR need to be determined by considering various aspects like, provision of intended free
space, safe bearing capacity of soil, economy of people for affording earthquake resilient
structures, drainage and transportation requirement and so on. While the proposed SAFE
method itself will determine an acceptable FAR, one need to provide an initial value of FAR.
This value can be given from guidelines provided by different organization including ULB.
In absence of any such guidelines, a value of 1.5 can be used for initial trial value. This value
is suggested based on the general trend observed so far in Indian condition.

Step 7: Calculation of carrying capacity: Based on the overall study, the carrying capacity
of the area with respect to urban development can be calculated using the following
equation:

CC= AU (AND+ AIF) x FAR/S

Here, S is the Floor area requirement per head.

Based on the trend of population growth, the demands of the people with regards to
infrastructure and other facilities will also increase. Hence, it is advisable that the carrying
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capacity should be periodically calculated using the above relation so as to check

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haphazard, unplanned or illegal development which will harm the ecosystem in the long
run by calling hazards or natural calamities.

Step 8: Check for adequacy of drainage system, sewerage system, water quality etc which
were not explicitly considered during carrying capacity calculation. If inadequate, following
two options need to be tried in sequence:

i. Apply possible Ecological Management Practices or any other technological

interventions to bring sediment yield, peak discharge, sewerage volume and water
quality within permissible limit.

ii. In case of under achievement, reevaluate the carrying capacity by reducing FAR. In
case of over achievement there remains a chance of even increasing the FAR.

3.3 Application of the concept to practical field: A case study of a

pilot watershed in Guwahati City of Assam, India
The study watershed is located near the Games village area of Guwahati City of Assam,
India. The watershed has an area of 0.17sq.km. The process of delineation of the watershed
is done initially by using ASTER DEM data in ArcSwat and followed by refining of the
selection using the drainage line of SoI toposheets.

The TIN model for the area is developed by using 20 m contour interval obtained from SoI
toposheets (1:50000 scale). From the TIN, the slope and aspect map of the area was
developed. The area is located within an elevation range of 11m to 200m. The slope ranges
from 0 to 40%. The major soil type of this watershed is fine and coarse loamy type as
obtained from soil map of Assam Remote Sensing Application Centre (ARSAC).

Figure 8, 9 and 10 shows the GIS based maps of the study area.
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Fig.8. The maps of the study site

Fig. 9. The slope map of the study site Fig. 10. The demarcated watershed
showing the developable & non
developable areas

3.3.1 Computation of Carrying Capacity

A computer program developed for the purpose was used in order to produce an
appropriate value of carrying capacity. This value can be called as the calculated carrying
capacity. A socio economic survey is carried out in the area to understand the population
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status, land requirement, economic status, etc of the people residing there. The survey of
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the area has highlighted the absence of basic infrastructural amenities. Hence the following
infrastructures are being considered for the area:

Water treatment plant

Sewage treatment plant
Park/ open area
Health facility
Socio cultural facility
Postal services
Milk booth
Transportation
Business/ commerce area
Based on primary and secondary data collected on required area for different
infrastructure and also considering some minimum value for some of the infrastructures,
logical statistical relationship between infrastructure and population were developed.

The following constraints are taken for demarcating the non developable area in the study
area:
Stream buffer: 20 m
Slope: > 30% with 5 m buffer

The FAR of the area has been taken to be 1.5 following Master Plan for Guwahati
Metropolitan Area (GMDA, 2009). For example, if one decides to construct house by
covering 50% of his land area, then he can go maximum up to 3 storey building. However
acceptability of FAR=1.5 or possible scope of enhancement of FAR may be reviewed for
hilly area from consideration of maximum permissible surcharge load from slope stability
point of view.

The socio economic survey has shown that the people residing in the area are lower middle
class. Requirement of area for different infrastructural facilities for the study area was
determined by using standard norm. For the facilities, for which standard norms were not
available, effort was made to develop logical relationship between population and desired
infrastructural area based on data collected for such existing infrastructures in other areas.
While using such relation care has been taken that for essential facilities a minimum area is
assigned even if the population is quite low.

Based on analysis of socio-economic status of the present population and considering

future possible matrix of different classes, an average logical floor area requirement is
being considered at 0.002 ha per head.

The overall analysis gives the calculated carrying capacity to be 782 persons. The results
obtained regarding area of different infrastructure for this computed carrying capacity is
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given in the Table 1.

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One of the most distinct points which are being dramatically rendered unseen by the policy
makers and developers is the ecological disturbance induced by the growing population
leading to multiple hazards.

The development of infrastructure and other facilities in hilly area generally cause land
leveling and cutting of vegetation rendering open or barren land. As urban flood is a major
problem for the study area, and enhanced sediment yield and water yield adversely affect
the flooding scenario, these two factors have been taken as the performance criteria to
assess feedback of the watershed after accommodation of the calculated carrying capacity.
In the present study the total built up area requirement is projected to be 5.7ha resulting
into an additional barren land output of 1.8ha. The sediment and water yield scenario of
the watershed is estimated by using the RUSLE method and Rational method which is
presented in the given in Table 2: Table-2 shows that both the values cross the permissible
limits. As per the procedure of SAFE model, technical intervention was first attempted by
applying ecological management practices or simply EMPs, which nullify the dwindling
ecological status.

Table1: Calculation of land requirement for infrastructural facilities

Area of the watershed 17ha

Non developable area 8.4 ha
FAR 1.5
S 0.002 ha
Infrastructure Total area obtained (ha) Coverage (%)
water treatment plant 1.076 60
sewage treatment plant 1.076 60
health 0.010 60
parks 0.478 20
socio cultural facility 0.010 20
postal service 0.004 60
milk booth 0.004 60
Transportation with road side drain 1.700 100
Business & commerce 2.550 80
Open space 1.700 0
Total infrastructural area 7.558
Total residential area 1.042
Total cover area 5.7
CALCULATED CARRYING 782
CAPACITY(Person)
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Table 2: Calculation of sediment and water yield

Sediment Natural (without Disturbed

yield of build up area) (considering the
watershed (tones/yr) calculated carrying
(Using the capacity)
RUSLE (tones/yr)
method)
2117 6774
Water yield Natural (without Disturbed
of the build up area) (considering the
watershed Peak flow calculated carrying
(Using the (cumec) capacity)(cumec)
Rational
Method)
0.48 2.04

The projections derived after analyzing the models considering the estimated carrying
capacity direct towards a higher runoff and sediment yield when compared to natural or
undisturbed areas. Taking into consideration the ever increasing development regime of
the nation it becomes really difficult to control the runoff and sediment without
management practice. Moreover it is not desired to lower the population. So an
optimization model was developed to decide most economical and feasible combination of
EMPs to reduce sediment and water yield in an ecologically sustainable way. In this regard
an analysis is done using the OPTEMP-LS (OPTimal EMP model with linear programming
for a watershed having Single ownership) model developed for the purpose to estimate the
effectiveness of the EMPs in reducing the runoff and sediment yield. Based on the value of
sediment and water yield in natural condition and also considering the drainage capacity of
downstream the sediment yield and peak discharge should lie in the range of 0-2000
tones/yr and 0.5-1.5 cumec respectively.

Considering the economic status of the people, location of the plot and factor of cost
effectiveness, the EMPs like grass cover, garden (with ornamental or fruit plants) and
detention pond (with fishery, boating facility etc) are being considered. By employing these
EMPs the following benefits can be achieved:

The vegetative cover over the land will lower sediment yield and run off. Thus
minimizes the chances of flood and landslide hazards.
The people can get monetary benefits from the fruit gardens and fishery thus
enhances their economic status.
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The aesthetic beauty of the plot is increased which will enhance the scope of eco-
tourism.
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Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Guwahati | Centre of Excellence

 URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY 2011-2012

After implementing the desired EMPs in the optimization model the following results are
obtained [Table 3 and Table 4]:

Table 3: Results of the EMP optimization model

Grass Garden Detention pond

(Area in ha) (with fruit and (with fishery,
ornamental plants) boating facilities
(Area in ha) etc) (Area in ha)
0.2 0.623 0.05

Table 4: Peak discharge, sediment yield and optimal cost of EMPs considering the EMPs in
the study site

Peak discharge Sediment yield Optional cost

(with EMPs) (with EMPs) for the EMPs
(cumec) (tones/yr) ()
0.73 2000 2679222

The results of the optimization model clearly reflect the feasibility of EMPs from economic
and ecological point of view. It can thus be readily advised to allow the population up to the
calculated carrying capacity (782 nos.) and to develop the hilly area by employing EMPs to
control the hazards and conserve the ecosystem forever.

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Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Guwahati | Centre of Excellence

 URBAN CARRYING CAPACITY 2011-2012

REFERENCES

Oh K., Jeong Y., Lee D., Lee W. and Choic J. (2005). Determining Development
Density using the urban carrying capacity assessment system, Landscape and
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Rees W. (1992). Ecological footprints and appropriated carrying capacity: What
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Zhao S., Li Z. and Li W. (2005). A modified method of ecological footprint
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Lane M. (2009). The Carrying Capacity Imperative: Assessing Regional Carrying
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Annual Meeting of the International Society for the Systems Sciences, 1-20.

Ewing B., Goldfinger S., Wackernagel M., Stechbart M., Rizk S., Reed A., Kitzes
J.,(2008) Ecological foot print atlas .Global Footprint Network, 1-87.

Arrow K., Bolin B., Costanza R., Dasgupta P., Folke C., Holling C.S., Jansson B.O., Levin
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ecological footprint

http://smallstock,info/issues/psr.htm

http://corbettcares.com/sustainability/eco-footprint/

http://censusindia.gov.in/Data_Products/Library/Indian_perceptive_link/Census_T
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http://www.iucn.org/programme

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Department of Civil Engineering, IIT Guwahati | Centre of Excellence