Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Directions
Respond to the Election Prediction prompts in cohesive paragraphs.
Include an Introduction to the assignment, your predictions and your strategy for approaching the
predictions
Include a Conclusion that looks at the implications of this prediction for future elections
All claims should be supported by data or analysis from credible sources.
Make sure to provide proper in-text citations for the demographic data and quotations you use.
You may combine districts or use one district as exemplifying traits of another, but be sure to
discuss similarities and difference between them,.
Prompts
1. Explain how demographic factors (2) in your districts will influence voting in the presidential
election. Explain how these same factors will influence voting in the congressional elections.
2. Describe how two key issues will influence presidential voting in your districts. Explain how the
candidates stances on these key issues will affect the outcomes of the congressional races. This
may also be a section in which you discuss the role of the media in these issues.
3. Describe how voter turnout in your state has changed over time for two different demographic
groups. Explain how the turnout rates of these groups have impacted election results in the past.
How do you expect voter turnout rates of these groups will influence elections in your state this
year?
4. Explain how the presidential election will affect the congressional elections in your state.
Describe the most significant demographic difference between the 2 districts you chose. Explain
how this difference will influence voting patterns.
The upcoming 2016 election will be a test of how polarized the United States truly is. With two
candidates who are almost exact opposites; Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, citizens living in swing
states and the moderate or uninformed voter population will be defining factors of this election.
Oklahoma voters are an example of the more moderate Republicans who make up middle America,
however, its location below the Mason-Dixon line remains a huge influence on the ideologies of its
congresspeople. All five of Oklahomas congressional districts are almost identical demographically, but
there is one main difference that stands out between them, one that is common among southern states;
urbanization. All of these components will affect the outcome of both the presidential and congressional
Districts 1 and 5 both are set apart from the rest of Oklahoma with two demographics; education
and urbanization. They both have a higher education rate of 20.16% earning an associate's and 9.21%
earning a bachelor's degree in District 1, and 18.93% earning an associate's and 10.97% earning a
bachelor's in District 5 (Census Bureau). This is about 4% more people with associates degrees, and 7%
more with bachelors. There is also a higher percentage of college students in these districts, which is
often true in more urban areas of a state. District one is 89.63% urban, and District 5 is 87.53% urban,
whereas the state of Oklahoma is only 61.41% urban (Census Bureau). Urban areas with educated voters
Since District 1 has an incumbent Republican candidate with an independent opponent, however,
those votes will most likely be cast to Jim Bridenstine, due to lack of a Democrat running for House.
Some who strongly oppose Bridenstine will vote for Hullum, if not abstaining from voting altogether, but
Oklahoma polls have shown that an independent candidate has never (in recent years) gotten over 10% of
the vote. This means District 1 will vote like the other districts in the congressional elections, but not
necessarily for the presidential election. Although there will most likely be no change in Republican votes
for Congress because of an incumbent candidate with little opposition, this is not the case when it comes
to Republican candidate Donald Trump. Many educated voters may not want to vote for Trump because
of his known tendency to change his policy, or state inaccurate information. High profile conservative
leaders have been known to oppose Trump because of his rash thinking, so this may lower the percentage
Two big issues in both the presidential and Oklahoma congressional elections are immigration
and taxes. Since Oklahoma is close to the Mexican border, restrictions on immigration could benefit
certain districts more than other. Districts 2,3, and 4 are more rural than 1 and 5, therefore agriculture and
produce are a big part of their economy. Mexican immigrants usually take up jobs in construction,
farming, and factories when they first arrive, and jobs in farming are currently limited (Oklahoma
Historical Society). Blue collar workers in rural, non developing areas may choose congresspeople who
want to tighten border patrol, in order to save their jobs. This is essentially the core of Trumps argument
on immigration. In urban areas, however, there is constant need for new construction and factory workers,
so blue collar workers in those areas may either shift towards a , or a Democrat, or Republican
congressperson who doesnt believe in tighter borders. Those voters who pick a Democrat over any
candidate who advocates for mass deportation and strict border regulation is almost guaranteed to not
vote for Trump, whether this means voting for Clinton, or sitting out this years presidential election.
District 1s Republican voters have a little less reason to shift to the left of the spectrum, unlike
District 5, because of the issue of tax increases on the rich. Oklahoma as a whole state has an average
yearly income of $62,871, about $10,00 more than the country's average; $51,939 (Census Bureau). This
would make taxation on the rich a smaller issue for the state as a whole, but taking a closer look at
District 1s $72,939 average income (Census Bureau) changes the relevance of the topic. Voters with a
higher income seem to be focused in District 1, which also happens to have a higher urbanization rate and
education level. Higher educated citizens tend to be the ones who register and vote, and those with a
higher income, especially in southern states, are likely to register as Republicans. If all of these wealthier
Republicans vote, there will most like be a Republican congressperson selected. Trump, however, does
not appeal to a lot of high paid and educated voters, so these people may chose not to vote or to cast their
vote to Clinton.
Urbanization will be the main influence in the congressional elections, but voter turnout will be
the main influence in the presidential election. Although the entire state as well as all of the districts will
most likely vote Republican, the demographic groups that show up at the ballot will determine how
Republican Oklahoma will vote. There has been an increase of younger voters in the primaries, so this
may mean slightly more Democrat votes than normal, being that Donald Trump does not appeal to a lot of
younger voters (Tulsa World). These young voters have been proven to be much more involved in
presidential elections than congressional elections, so the Republican vote should remain unchanged in
This same trend is shown by data from the Oklahoma State Election Board. In 2026, there was a
6% increase in registered Democrats. Again, this may not have a huge affect on the more rural districts in
the congressional elections, but it will most likely raise the Democrat votes in future District 5 elections
(none this year). The votes for Clinton could increase by 4-10% in comparison to previous Democrat
candidates because of the recent increase of registered Democrats and 18-21 year olds, as well as
factoring in the skepticism surrounding Trumps campaign among some of Oklahomas wealthier
residents.
In summary, Oklahoma is usually a red state and will probably remain a red state unless
something drastic invalidates poll numbers. There will however be a higher number of Democrats voting,
and Republicans sitting out the election because of an opposition to Trumps policy. This will create a
higher percentage for Clinton, but it wont be nearly enough for her to win the election. Congressional
elections in Oklahoma are mostly Republican incumbents, so there wont be much change, except in fute
District 1 and 5 elections due to their urbanization and the rising importance of immigration. Oklahoma is
a southern state, which is certainly reflected in its poll numbers, but this critical election will cause a
significant shift toward the Democrat candidate, which the state hasnt seen in years.
Works Cited
Killman, Curtis. "Young Voters Showed up in Increasing Numbers for Oklahoma's Primary
"Oklahoma State Election Board - Voter Registration Statistics." Oklahoma State Election Board