15/07/2017 Illinois "Budget Deal" Is Likely The Death Knell For The State's $130 Billion Underfunded Pensions

funded Pensions | Zero Hedge

Illinois "Budget Deal" Is Likely The Death Knell For The State's $130 Billion
Underfunded Pensions

by Tyler Durden
Jul 14, 2017 10:16 PM

273
SHARES

Last August, in a post that attempted to explain why public pensions are really about $8 trillion underfunded, as opposed to the
$3-$5 trillion that you frequently see tossed around in the press, we described pensions in the following way:

Defined Benefit Pension Plans are, in many cases, a ponzi scheme. Current assets are used to pay current claims in full
in spite of insufficient funding to pay future liabilities... classic Ponzi. But unlike wall street and corporate ponzi
schemes no one goes to jail here because the establishment is complicit. Everyone from government officials to union
bosses are incentivized to maintain the status quo...public employees get to sleep better at night thinking they have a
"retirement plan," public legislators get to be re-elected by union membership while pretending their states are solvent
and union bosses get to keep their jobs while hiding the truth from employees.

And while we weren't specifically writing about Illinois at the time, that state's recent "budget deal" perfectly mimics our
point and illustrates precisely why America's underfunded pension ponzi schemes continue to grow at alarming rates, despite
going largely unnoticed by soaring equity markets, and will ultimately be the catalyst for a major correction in the U.S.

So, what are we talking about? As Bloomberg points out today, one of the ways that Illinois managed to "fix" its budget
crisis, was by simply "kicking the can down the road" on their future pension funding requirements...pensions which are
already only ~35% funded as it is.

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So, how did they do it? Well, they simply decided to continue modeling future returns at a much higher rate than they'll ever be
able to reasonably achieve. By leaving their discount rate at 7% they manage to reduce the present value of future liabilities and
thus reduce current funding requirements. In short, tweak one simple number and, like magic, your whole funding crisis
"disappears."

That spending plan, pushed through by lawmakers eager to keep Illinoiss bond rating from being cut to junk, allows the
state to sink deeper into the hole by giving it five years to phase in hundreds of millions of dollars in increased
contributions to four of its five retirement plans. Those extra payments stem from the funds decisions to roll back

forecasts for what they expect to make on their investments, which means Illinois will need to set aside more money to
ensure it can cover pension checks due in the decades ahead.

The phase-in of the actuarial assumption is another exercise in kicking the can down the road, but were not sure
how far the can travels, said Dave Urbanek, spokesman for the Illinois Teachers Retirement System, the states largest
pension, which has $73 billion of unfunded liabilities. You pay less now, pay more later.

After the stock market stumbled in 2015, Illinoiss four pension systems for teachers, state workers, judges and
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lawmakers all lowered their assumed investment rates of return, according to a March report from the Commission on
Government Forecasting and Accountability. That, along with other accounting changes, added $9.67 billion to their
unfunded liabilities, since they could no longer count on making as much on stocks, bonds and other holdings. The
teachers and state employees systems dropped their rates of return to 7 percent, while the plans for judges and
general assembly members cut their rates to 6.75 percent.

All four had negative investment returns in the 2016 budget year, according to the commission. The state university
retirement system was the only one with positive returns, eking out a gain of just 0.2 percent, the report showed.

Of course, as we recently pointed out, the silly fake math games only work so long as you have enough cash to prop up the
ponzi scheme. Remember, Madoff's ponzi only came crumbling down when he could no longer raise enough money from
new investors to fund withdraws from redeeming investors. Unfortunately, at least for Illinois pensioners who think they
have a retirement waiting for them, Illinois' ponzi is about to run out of cash and meet the same fate as Madoff's ponzi.

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For those who missed, below is a post in which we explained why Illinois' pensions could run out of money in as little as 4 years.
***

Chicago's pension funds, along with several other large public pensions around the country, are in serious trouble (we
recently discussed the destruction awaiting our financial markets here: "Are Collapsing Pensions "About To Bring Hell To
America"?").
The problem is that the pending doom surrounding these massive public pension obligations often get clouded over by
complicated actuarial math with a plan's funded status heavily influenced by discount rates applied to future liability streams.

Take Chicago's largest pension fund, the Municipal Employees Annuity and Benefit Fund of Chicago (MEABF), as an example.
Most people focus on a funds 'net funded status', which for the MEABF is a paltry 20.3%. But the problem with focusing on
'funded status' is that it can be easily manipulated by pension administrators who get to simply pick the rate at which
they discount future liabilities out of thin air.

So, rather than lend any credence to some made up pension math, we prefer to focus on actual pension cash flows which can't
be manipulated quite so easily.
And a quick look at MEABF's cash flows quickly reveals the ponzi-ish nature of the fund. In both 2015 and 2014, the fund
didn't even come close to generating enough cash flow from investment returns and contributions to cover it's $800mm
in annual benefit payments...which basically means they're slowing liquidating assets to pay out liabilities.

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Of course, like all ponzi schemes, liquidating assets to pay current claims can only go on for so long before you simply
run out of assets.
So we decided to take a look at when Chicago's largest pension fund would likely run out of money.

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On the expense side, annual benefit payments are currently just over $800 million and are growing at a fairly consistent pace
due to an increasing number of retirees and inflation adjustments guaranteed to workers. Assuming payouts continue to grow
at the same pace observed over the past 15 years, the fund will be making annual cash payments to retirees of around $1.3
billion by 2023.

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Investment returns, on the other hand, are much more volatile but have averaged 5.5% over the past 15 years. That said, the
fund took big hits in 2002 (-9.3%) and 2008 (-27.1%) following the dotcom and housing bubble crashes.
But, just to keep it simple, lets assume that today's market is not a massive fed-induced bubble and that the MEABF is able to
produce consistent 5.5% (their 15-year average) returns every year in perpetuity. Even then, the fund will only generate
roughly $500mm per year in income compared to benefit payments growing to $1.3 billion...see the problem?

Which, of course, means that the fund has likely just entered a period of perpetual cash outflows which will not stop until either
(i) the city decides to cut back retiree payments or (ii) the fund runs out of money.

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And, putting it all together, even if Chicago's largest pension generates consistent positive returns for the foreseeable future, it
will literally run out of cash in roughly 6 years.

And while we hate to be pessimistic, lets just take a look at what happens if, by some small chance, today's market gets
exposed as a massive bubble and we have another big correction in 2018.

Such a correction would force the fund to liquidate over $1.5 billion in assets in 2018 alone....

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....and the system would run out of cash completely within 4 years.

The risk associated with America's pension ponzi schemes have largely been overlooked by investors to date because so long as
they can meet annual benefit payments then plan administrators can just continue to 'kick the can down the road' and pretend
that nothing is wrong.
Of course, that strategy ceases to work when the pensions actually run out of cash...which could happen sooner than you
think...and when it does, America's retirees will suddenly find themselves about $5 trillion poorer than they thought they
were.

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VWAndy Jul 14, 2017 2:08 PM

Door to door searches for assets.

Jim Sampson VWAndy Jul 14, 2017 2:09 PM

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Sounds like some people are getting dead fish.

bamawatson Jim Sampson Jul 14, 2017 2:13 PM

they worked for scale

froze25 bamawatson Jul 14, 2017 2:20 PM

Half of my Counties budget goes to "Health and Human Services" aka Bull Shit benefit programs for Junkies, Unwed
mothers (usually Junkies too) HIV positive (junkies) and welfare queens.

38BWD22 froze25 Jul 14, 2017 2:24 PM

Illinois elected, for decades, these idiots. The citizenry will pay, no matter whom they voted for. Smart IL
residents should consider leaving ASAP. But do not bring any liberal values to your new destinations!

Scrimpy 38BWD22 Jul 14, 2017 2:29 PM

Shooting treasonous politicians is a right given to all Americans in the Bill of Rights.

It's what the 2nd Amendment is there for.....Act now, of be slaves to the jew world order, and wash a jew's
smelly feet!

pods Scrimpy Jul 14, 2017 3:01 PM

Pssst, nothing was "given" in the BOR.

(understand what you are saying though)

pods

Creepy_Azz_Crackaah pods Jul 14, 2017 3:30 PM

Just raise taxes to 125% of income. Problem solved...
Isn't progressive "math" neat?

Oh, and don't forget to build a wall with many, many weaponized security guards (jobs, jobs, jobs!) to keep
everyone in.

google_whiz Creepy_Azz_Crackaah Jul 14, 2017 3:45 PM

m making over $7k a month working part time. I kept hearing other people tell me how much money they can
make online so I decided to look into it. Well, it was all true and has totally changed my life. This is what I do..,
www.jobproplan.com Go this web and start you

JSBach1 google_whiz Jul 14, 2017 4:09 PM

"Go this web and start you"

Hey bot, it seems your algorithm has some bugs in it.

peopledontwanttruth google_whiz Jul 14, 2017 5:19 PM

I'm making $0 per month posting on ZH but having fun doing it.

Al Bendova peopledontwanttruth Jul 14, 2017 9:48 PM

Illinois can just shift all retirees to the "part time $7,000/month" job, advertised incessantly here on ZH.
Problem solved!

JamesBond Al Bendova Jul 15, 2017 9:35 AM

The stock market has been on a tear since 2009. How the hell have these funds not been making money?!?

jb

dizzyfingers JamesBond Jul 15, 2017 10:46 AM

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dizzyfingers JamesBond Jul 15, 2017 10:46 AM
Read up on this: http://cafr1.com/

JSBach1 pods Jul 14, 2017 3:59 PM

And of course, in a few years time, just before the funds start to run out of money, Illinois Speaker of the
hollowed-out House Michael Madigan and his band of avaricious pillagers will cash-out their holdings and go
quietly into retirement in a far-off land to feast, like the vultures that they are, on the swindled bloodied carcasses
whilst quenching their voracious thirst for blood first filling the golden challace from an oozing orifice the dark
red blood of its host only to so nonchalantly wash it down their gluttonous goiters where the remnants of the few
nutrients are once again absorbed by their carnivorous enzymes all the while they let out a loud and putrid belch
that sends out noxious nebulous fumes only to be absorbed back into their skin first by the protruding hairy
flagella spreading their thieving tentacles ready to once again take, and take, and then take some more.

Creative_Destruct JSBach1 Jul 14, 2017 4:29 PM

Would somebody PLEASE just take this state out behind the barn and SHOOT it !!!

tbd108 Creative_Destruct Jul 14, 2017 4:41 PM

Don't worry. The inflation rate (plus or minus 10%) will do the shooting for us. In a few short years (about 5/6)
the dollar will be worthless and all of these ponzi schemes will meet the same fate (meaning the defined pension
plans will have zero value).

FreeNewEnergy tbd108 Jul 15, 2017 7:27 AM

Completely untrue. Deflation is the biggest problem. Why do you see worried faces of Fed officials? They can't
get inflation up over their 2% goal. They're fucked, as is the global economy. It was only papered over by massive
liquidity injections from 2009 forward and inflation never occurred. They're now desperate, or, righly so, more
desperate than ever.
You and I may not see it now, because the deflation is starting at the top tier: luxury real estate, commercial
assets. For those of us in the "general public" sphere, keep an eye on food prices. They are the last line of
defense, but, at least where I live, they're stable to declining. Stores around here mark down unsold, perishable
items after holidays. For instance, a store had a freezer bin full of hot dogs (good ones, white, all pork) that
usually sell for $3-4, for one dollar on July 5. Guess all the rednecks out here were eating steak instead.
The Fed and the banks would love to see real price inflation, but it's not happening because most people are
tapped out. The only place there's asset inflation is on Wall Street and that will come crashing down at some
point. Got gold (or silver or real estate)?

ultraticum JSBach1 Jul 14, 2017 5:28 PM

Johann,
+1 to you good Sir for a vivid description of the ghoulish parasites.

Son of Loki ultraticum Jul 14, 2017 5:35 PM

Jumping off the plundred boat is a carefully timed move. I remember the dozens of execs who jumped off ENRON
just before if went bankrupt. One exec cashed out their options, etc and bought 6,000 acres in Colorado. Others
did similar.

Skinning and Lay for some reason failed to jump and got caught holding the bag of doo doo they created. Also,
for some reason the feds didn't go after all these other embezzlers and fraudsters.

Forest for the Trees pods Jul 14, 2017 10:12 PM

Thank you for pointing that out, pods. It never ceases to amaze me that people think their rights come from a
piece of paper. If someone can hand you a document that supposedly'givesyou rights', it won't take long
before someone else crumples up the documentand takes them away. Easy come, easy go. We have
rightsbecause we were born human beings, plain and simple.

August 38BWD22 Jul 14, 2017 7:13 PM

South Dakota, Baby!

rwe2late froze25 Jul 14, 2017 2:54 PM

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But the roots of the problem have nothing to do with the phoney "drug war"(aka price support),
the lack of infrastructure investment, the job-destroying wage arbitage/outsourcing?

Better to blame human frailties for not being upstanding citizens doubtless like yourself.

Scuba Steve rwe2late Jul 14, 2017 3:57 PM

They are not mutually exclusive, but if I/You have to pick something that can booted overnight and it can be
compared to me (working like a dog) ... Guess who's getting the boot?

Not "Common tax-paying man" fault that these folks with issues are most of the time snowflakes that dont
believe in God any more .... too bad, should be believe in the church, they were where the destitute went.
Have an inkling not to far down the road, this country will get back to that ... the destitute population is going to
grow. Mark it down.

Shinebama froze25 Jul 14, 2017 5:01 PM

Article in Tribune a couple of weeks ago talking about the soda pop tax indirectly let a good fact slip out. It
mentioned the fact people on food stamps in Cook County would not have to pay the tax, which amounts to a
staggering 875,000 people. In a county with 5.2 million residents, that means damned near 17% are on food
stamps. That's the group that keeps voting these numb nuts into office. Yet these same numb nuts pass tax
increases that drive taxpayers and tax paying businesses out of the county and out of the state.

peopledontwanttruth Shinebama Jul 14, 2017 5:21 PM

Did you see this about Cook County out just two days ago from their soda tax. Should of asked Philadelphia how
that's working out.
http://abc7chicago.com/food/cook-county-to-cut-1100-jobs-due-to-soda-tax...

HalinCA peopledontwanttruth Jul 14, 2017 8:16 PM

1000 of 6000 cops laid off ... and only the gangs have guns?
What a hoot ...

Forest for the Trees HalinCA Jul 14, 2017 10:05 PM

After reading your comment, thetheme song to RoboCop started playing in my head ... not sure why.

(Now it's playing in your head, to, isn't it?) ;)

Freddie Shinebama Jul 14, 2017 6:01 PM

17%? I bet 40% are on food stamps.

Forest for the Trees Freddie Jul 15, 2017 9:49 AM

They used to call this sort of thing a 'bread line', but EBT has a much more dissociative (less stigmatizing) ring to
it.

Erek Jim Sampson Jul 14, 2017 2:15 PM

When the government is extorting citizens for victimless "crimes", to pay for services not rendered, all the while
spending trillions on useless wars and racking up trillions in debt which can never be repaid, perhaps it's time to
realize that this shit needs a revolutionary change.

GeezerGeek Erek Jul 14, 2017 2:56 PM

Sounds like you've been reading that pesky Declaration of Independence again.

shovelhead Erek Jul 14, 2017 3:15 PM

Fuckin Illinois...
Always at war with somebody.

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drendebe10 Jim Sampson Jul 15, 2017 8:38 AM

Pensions? Pensions? I don't got to show u no sinkin pensions.

CRM114 VWAndy Jul 14, 2017 2:20 PM

Should be amusing in rural areas.
Back to the olden days of the bailiffs being found face down in a ditch, empty-handed, I suspect.

VWAndy CRM114 Jul 14, 2017 2:24 PM

Then they will just grab ur kids from school.

gregga777 VWAndy Jul 14, 2017 2:38 PM

They might want to give that kind of activity some second thoughts. In the age of the Internet and freely available
software programs that can identify and locate the political parasites and their hired goons from video footage will
make it a whole lot easier to find and eliminate them.

SumTing Wong VWAndy Jul 14, 2017 4:24 PM

Yet another reason to homeschool.
Dumb asses think we can't figure this shit out. We'll show them. My kids would likely shoot the assholes if they
tried to take them, anyhow.

GeezerGeek CRM114 Jul 14, 2017 2:54 PM

In Florida we can just feed the gators.

Hal n back VWAndy Jul 14, 2017 2:22 PM

if the market decline was 50% and did not reverse for 3 years then the pensions-across teh country,generaly "tap
out" in 2-3 years. The problem is they not only decline by "x"%, but their assumed roi is replaced by the loss.

GUS100CORRINA VWAndy Jul 14, 2017 2:23 PM

Illinois "Budget Deal" Is Likely The Death Knell For The State's $130 Billion Underfunded Pensions

My response: Truly sad. Text below which I constructed months ago appears to fit the situation in Illinois very well
at this time. What a tragedy for the Land of OBAMA ... oops I meant to say Land of LINCOLN. President LINCOLN
now turning over in his grave.
====

In a society where all lies, all deceptions, all corruptions are accepted, that society will lose control of everything.
Chaos will begin to take over, and the only way that chaos will be slowed down will be when dictatorial control, or
maybe even a police state is formed, where thought and behavior is fixed, and anybody out of bounds is punished.
Eventually, the chaos has to be controlled. Were not headed toward socialism; we could very well be headed toward
a dictatorship in our world. Is this hard to grasp?

August GUS100CORRINA Jul 14, 2017 7:21 PM

>>> Is this hard to grasp?
No. That's why Simon Black is still in business.

mathew913 GUS100CORRINA Jul 14, 2017 8:05 PM

heading towards armed civil unrest sadly

SilverRoofer VWAndy Jul 14, 2017 2:58 PM

I Say Fuck em

No tax payer bail out nothing

Let it crash and Burn

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mathew913 SilverRoofer Jul 14, 2017 8:08 PM

like a junkie or alcoholic hitting rock-bottom do they wake up and change

AmadausVoltaire VWAndy Jul 14, 2017 7:34 PM

Actual quote by communist:

Communism would work if everyone was doing it (worldwide), because people wouldn't have anything to compare it
to.

Offthebeach AmadausVoltaire Jul 14, 2017 8:35 PM

Lenin tried that. Couldn't fugure out how to plan without knowing costs of things and services. So they picked out
if their hat that if 15% of the economy was "free" that would provide enough information.
Didn't work.

Katos VWAndy Jul 14, 2017 9:06 PM

What's going to be interesting to see, is if all these policeman who have been protecting the elites thinking that the elites
were looking OUT for them realize they've been screwed AND their pensions aren't worth shit? Who will be left to protect
the elites?

waspwench Katos Jul 15, 2017 2:42 AM

Don't be silly. The elite employ their own private security. The police are just there to keep us proles in line.

Deep In Vocal E... Jul 14, 2017 2:09 PM

i'm not an expert.

the gangsters run the show, they fuck you all over and laugh in your face...you won't do shit....

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