Clinton 3

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.
edu>
Senttime: 06/28/201609:11:57AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:"USambassadortoRussia[JohnTEFFT]:NATO'mosteffectivedefensivealliance'inhistory,"
Subject:
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27824043.html
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,June28,20169:11AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"USambassadortoRussia[JohnTEFFT]:NATO'mosteffectivedefensivealliance'inhistory,"
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27824043.html
HiscommentscomeaheadoftheJuly89summitinWarsawwhereNATOleadersareexpectedto
endorseasubstantialincreaseinforcesinPolandandtheBalticstates
And:LITHUANIA[ForeignMinisterLinkevicius]warnsabouteasingantiRussianSANCTIONSafter
Brexit,themoscowtimes.com,6/28
And:RussiasaysUSwarship[USSGRAVELY]inNEARMISSwithRussianvessel[Russiannavyfrigate
YaroslavMudry]inMediterranean,reuters.com,6/28
And:UNIAN:PoroshenkoexpectspositivesanctionsagainstRussiaatEUsummit[onJune2829],
kyivpost.com,6/28
And:LeadinginvestigativejournalistOlegKASHIN,Anew1937[Stalinstylegreatpurge]:whydid
theyarrest[Governor]NikitaBELYKH?http://slon.ru/posts/70007
And:KonstantinREMCHUKOV,PutinhassentaSIGNALtothesystemicopposition,indicatingwho
couldbeworsethanatraitordetailedinterviewontheupcomingDumaelections,thearrestof
NikitaBelykhandmuchmore:ng.ru,6/28[originalpostedonEkhoMoskvywebsite]
And:PutindentsTURKISHhopesforquickrestorationofrelations,reuters.com,6/28
And:HillaryCLINTONisinterviewedbyEkhoMoskvy:http://echo.msk.ru/blog/echomsk/1792040
echo/
And:Bizarre:Trumplawyer[MichaelCOHEN]accusesClintonofMURDERintweet,
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/trumplawyerclintonmurder224876
DonaldTrumpslawyeraccusedHillaryClintonofmurderinganambassadorandsellingURANIUM
toRUSSIAthroughherfalsecharity
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 06/30/201609:40:48AM
FW:[6-29EVEITEMSOFINTEREST][ANT/F]Dutchwants'binding'assurancesoverUkrainedeal/NATOSummitSpecialSeries:Poland/USv
Subject:
RUontheHighSeas.[ODDDII]Ukraine:WP,AC(2)+ODNote[ED:DaveKandJohnHACDebateandODReflectionson...
From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Wednesday,June29,20167:42PM
Subject:Fwd:[6-29EVEITEMSOFINTEREST][ANT/F]Dutchwants'binding'assurancesoverUkrainedeal/NATOSummitSpecial
Series:Poland/USvRUontheHighSeas.[ODDDII]Ukraine:WP,AC(2)+ODNote[ED:DaveKandJohnHACDebateandOD
Reflectionson...
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Wed,Jun29,2016at8:55PM
Subject:[6-29EVEITEMSOFINTEREST][ANT/F]Dutchwants'binding'assurancesoverUkrainedeal/NATOSummit
SpecialSeries:Poland/USvRUontheHighSeas.[ODDDII]Ukraine:WP,AC(2)+ODNote[ED:DaveKandJohnH
ACDebateandODReflectionsontheDebate.all"ThoughtfulReads"]..[JDDDII]JoshR:USDIPLOMATBEATEN
UPBYFSBOUTSIDEUSEMBASSYINMOSCOW[AgreewithGH:"Unbelievable"]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Wed,Jun29,2016at10:24AM
Subject:Dutchwants'binding'assurancesoverUkrainedeal/NATOSummitSpecialSeries:Poland/
To:
DutchPMRuttewants'binding'assurancesoverEU'sUkrainedeal
http://in.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-eu-idINKCN0ZF07P
...
"Whatweneedisalegallybindingsolution,whichwilladdressthemanyworriesandelementsofthediscussioninthe
Netherlandsleadinguptothereferendum,"RuttesaidafteranEUleaders'summitinBrusselstodiscussthe
aftermathofBritain'svotelastweektoleavethebloc.
ThedebatearoundthereferendumintheNetherlands,whichshoweddissatisfactionwithRutte'sgovernmentand
policy-makinginBrussels,zeroedinonwhethertheagreementwithKievwouldheraldEUmembershipfor
Ukraineandits45millionpeople.
"Theexactform-Idon'tknowyet,"Ruttesaid."Itcouldbethatwehavetochangethetext,itcouldbethatwecan
findasolutionwhichwillnotinvolvechangingthetextoftheassociationagreement.Idon'tknowyet.
"IfIamnotabletoachievethat...wewillnotsign,"hesaid."Wewilltrytofindasolution,itwillbedifficult,the
chancesaresmallthatwewillgettherebutIthinkweshouldtry."
ThewholedealcouldbederailedshouldTheHaguerefusetoratifyit
June28,2016
NATOSummitSpecialSeries:Poland
ByIanBrzezinski
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/nato-summit-special-series-poland
NATOsmeetingofheadsofstateonJuly8thinWarsawwillbetheAlliancesmostimportantsummitsincethefallof
theBerlinWall.
...PolandwantstheAlliancetodeepenitsrelationshipwithUkraine.Polandwasamongthefirstalliestoinsistthatthe
WarsawsummitincludeaheadsofstatemeetingwithUkrainetounderscoreNATOsolidaritywithKiev.Warsaw
supportsexpandingtheAlliancessecurityassistancetoUkraine,sothatthereinforcementofNATOseastern
frontierdoesnotinadvertentlysignalWesternacceptanceofanewgreyzoneinEuropeopentoRussianhegemony
andoccupation...
EnsuringStabilityintheOSCERegionwithRespecttoUkraine:StatementataSpecial
Session
http://osce.usmission.gov/ensuring-stability-osce-region-respect-ukraine-statement-special-session-2016-asrc/
...RussiaclaimsthattheconflictineasternUkraineisinternal.Russiacontinuestosupplypersonnelandequipment
tocombined-Russian-separatistmilitaryforcesinDonbas.TheOSCEandUkrainianmilitaryhavedocumented
RussianshipmentstocombinedRussian-separatistforcesshipmentsofsophisticatedhardwarethatdoesnotexistin
Ukrainianarsenals,includingtheso-calledelectronicwarfareChristmastrees,theMRO-Aman-portable
thermobaricrocketlaunchers,andSA-15Gauntletmissiles.
Atthesametime,Moscowhassoughttoconcealthisinvolvementbypursuingastrategyofblindingthe
OSCEsSpecialMonitoringMissionbyrestrictingmonitorsaccesstoseparatist-controlledterritory,employing
threatsandintimidation,andsystematicallydestroyingOSCEcamerasandUAVs.
JasonHealey
RUfrigatesignaled"restrictedabilitytomaneuver"butmatchedUSdestroyertointerferew/USSTrumaninEast
Med
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense-news/2016/06/28/russia-navy-destroyer-frigate-gravely-yaroslav-mudry-
neustrashimy-mediterranean-truman-carrier-collision-encounter/86481616/
TheincidenttookplaceJune17intheeasternMediterraneanSea,andinvolvedtheUSdestroyerGravelyand
theRussianfrigateYaroslavMudry.
[ED:TheRU-sskiescouldn'tusesometubnamedIvanGroznyorKaterynaBolshoyaorevenJosefStalinnothey
insistedononebearingthenameofaKyivanmonarchwhosedaughtersbecomequeensinWestern,Centraland
NorthernEurope]
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Subject:Ukraine:WP,AC(2)+ODNote[ED:DaveKandJohnHandOD.all"ThoughtfulReads"]
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
TheWashingtonPost
Music
OperaticbaritonekilledinUkrainefighting
ByAssociatedPress
June29at9:37AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/entertainment/music/operatic-baritone-killed-in-ukraine-fighting/2016/06/29/d32f03ac-3dfa-
11e6-9e16-4cf01a41decb_story.html
MOSCOWAUkrainianbaritonewhoperformedinFrenchoperaproductionsfornearlytwodecadesbeforejoininga
volunteerbattalioninwarringeasternUkrainehasbeenkilledinthefighting.
UkrainiannewsreportscitedthenationalistgroupPravySektorassayingWassylSlipakwaskilledonWednesdaybyasniper.
ThereportssaidSlipakhadabandonedhissingingcareertwoyearsagotojointhefightofUkrainiansoldiersandvolunteers
againstRussia-backedrebels.Nearly9,500peoplehavebeenkilledintheconflict,accordingtoU.N.figures.
SlipakhadperformedattheParisNationalOperaandproductionsthroughoutFrance,accordingtohiswebpage.
InastatementonWednesday,IvanSimonovic,headoftheU.N.HumanRightschiefsofficeinNewYork,saidthedeathtollof
early9,500includesupto2,000civilians.
Simonovicsaidinthepastmonthhalfofallciviliancasualtieswerecausedbyshellingfrommortarsandhowitzers-weapons
whichuseintheconflictzoneareprohibitedbytheMinskAgreements.
Simonovicwarnedofapossiblere-escalationofwide-scalehostilitiesifurgentactionisnottakentoseparatesidesandremove
heavyweaponry.
AtlanticCouncil(2)
JUNE28,2016
It'sTimetoScraptheMinskAgreement
BYDAVIDJ.KRAMER
EditorsNote:OnJune22,AmbassadorJohnHerbstandDavidKramerdebatedwhetherweshouldburytheMinsk
agreement,thetroubledceasefireagreementinUkraine,atanAtlanticCouncileventinWashington,DC.Their
remarkshavebeenadaptedfromthedebate.
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/it-s-time-to-scrap-the-minsk-agreement
TheMinskceasefireagreement,signedFebruary15,2015,bytheleadersofRussia,Ukraine,Germany,andFrance,alongwith
representativesfromtheOSCEandfromRussian-occupiedareasofDonetskandLuhansk(DNRandLNR,respectively),is
simplynotworking.ItistimetoscrapitandmakecleartoRussia,throughadeclarationfromWesternnations,thatsanctionswill
remaininplaceandwillbeincreasedovertimeunlessRussiameetsseveralkeyconditions.Theseincludewithdrawalofits
forcesandweaponsfromUkraine(includingCrimea),respectofUkraine'ssovereigntyandterritorialintegrity,controlofthe
borderrestoredtoUkrainianauthorities,andthereturntoUkraineofthosecitizensitkidnappedfromUkrainianterritory.Further
negotiationswithMoscowarepointlessgiventhatRussianofficialswontevenacknowledgethepresenceoftheirforceson
Ukrainiansoil.
TherehavenotbeenanynewsanctionsimposedonRussiadespiteitsfailuretoliveuptoasingleconditionundertheMinsk
accord.Instead,anumberofEuropeanleaders,ledbyGermanForeignMinisterFrank-WalterSteinmeierandViceChancellor
SigmarGabriel,alongwiththeFrenchparliamentandothers,haveirresponsiblycalledforaneasingifnotoutrightliftingof
sanctions.WithoutGermanChancellorAngelaMerkel,renewalofEUsanctionswouldbeinjeopardy.
DefendersofMinskargueithasreducedthefighting.Infact,morethanfourthousandUkrainianshavebeenkilledsincethe
secondMinskdealwassignedlastyear,almosthalfthenumberoftotalcasualtiessinceRussiainvadedUkraineinlateFebruary
2014.AseriousuptickinfightinginthepasttwomonthsfurtherbeliestheclaimthatMinskhaspreservedthepeace.
Inaddition,defendersofthedealclaimitistheonlyactintown.ThesamecouldhavebeensaidafterthefirstMinskdealwas
signedinSeptember2014,butfivemonthslateritwasreplacedwithanevenworsedeal.Infact,suchclaimsareexcusesfornot
engaginginthenecessary,albeitdifficult,workofcomingupwithaninnovativealternativetoMinsk.Thiswouldrequire
involvementatthepresidentiallevelintheUnitedStates,andPresidentBarackObama,regrettably,hasshownlittleinterestinsuch
engagement,delegatinginsteadresponsibilityforresolvingthecrisistoMerkel.
UkrainesignedMinskandthereforemustabidebyit,thedealsdefendersfurtherclaim.Ofcourse,theUnitedStatesandUnited
Kingdom,aswellasRussia,signedthe1994BudapestMemorandumadealthatactuallyworkedinconvincingUkraineto
relinquishitsSoviet-inheritednuclearweaponsinexchangefortheothersignatoriesrespectforitssovereigntyandterritorial
integrity.ButnobodyinofficialpositionsotherthanUkrainiansraisestheBudapestMemorandumthesedays.
Moreover,MinskforcedUkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenko,undertremendouspressureasRussianforcesweresurrounding
Debaltseve,tocommittosomethingthatonlytheUkrainianparliamentcandonamely,passaconstitutionalamendmentand
legislativereformpavingthewayforlocalelectionsintheDNRandLNR.PoroshenkosimplydoesnthavethevotesintheRada
topasstheconstitutionalamendment,whichrequiresthreehundredvotes.Fourpeoplewerekilleddemonstratingagainstthe
RadasconsiderationofsuchlegislationlastAugust,reflectingthehighlysensitiveissuethisisforUkraine.
ThemostcogentargumentformaintainingMinskisthattheonlywaytokeeptheEuropeansonboardwithsanctionsisby
demonstratingRussiannoncompliancewiththeaccordsprovisions.Theproblemwiththisargument,however,isthatMinskisalso
beingusedtopressureUkraineintopassingthelegislationandamendmentsforlocalelectionsintheDNRandLNR.ThisWestern
pressureonKyivshouldcease.
UkrainedoesnotcontroltheDNRandLNRregionshowcanitpossiblypasslegislation,evenprovisionally,callingforlocal
electionsthere?Whataboutthe1.7milliondisplacedpeoplewilltheygetanopportunitytoparticipateintheelections?
AccordingtotheMinskdeal,electionsintheseregionsaretobeconductedinaccordancewithUkrainianlegislationandin
accordancewithrelevantOSCEstandardsandmonitoredbyOSCE/ODIHR.HowcanthisbewhenRussiacontrolsthisregion
andthefightinghasntstopped?
EveniftheWestweretostoppressuringUkraineaboutthelocalelections,theMinskdealstillsuffersfromfatalflaws.For
example,it:
Callsforwithdrawalofallforeignarmedformations,butnevermentionsRussianforcesspecifically.SincetheKremlinlies
abouthavingnoforcesinUkraine,Russiacanarguethatthisclausedoesnotapplytoit
Lacksclarityonthesequencingofthemeasuresthatmustbemet,whichenablesPutintoargue,ashedidattheSt.Petersburg
EconomicForumonJune17,thattheonusforfulfillingMinskliesinKyiv,notMoscow
NeglectstomentionCrimeaatall.
FifteenmonthsislongenoughtoconcludethattheMinskdealisnotworkingtoendtheviolenceorresolvetheconflict,andnew
waysshouldbefoundtokeeptheEuropeansonboardwithsanctionsor,failingthat,tomoveaheadunilaterallywithadditional
USsanctions.ThatwouldrequirestrongerAmericanpresidentialleadership,however,andthatisunlikelyuntilnextJanuary,at
best.
DavidJ.KrameristheseniordirectorforhumanrightsanddemocracyattheMcCainInstituteforInternational
LeadershipinWashington,DC,andwasAssistantSecretaryofStateforDemocracy,HumanRightsandLaborinthe
GeorgeW.Bushadministration.
AtlanticCouncil
JUNE28,2016
NowIsNottheTimetoScraptheMinskAgreement
AReplytoDavidJ.Kramer
BYJOHNE.HERBST
EditorsNote:OnJune22,AmbassadorJohnHerbstandDavidJ.Kramerdebatedwhetherweshouldburythe
Minskagreement,thetroubledceasefireagreementinUkraine,atanAtlanticCouncileventinWashington,DC.
Theirremarkshavebeenadaptedfromthedebate.
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/now-is-not-the-time-to-scrap-the-minsk-agreement
UkrainesdiscussionofthewarwithRussiaoftenfocusesonthefailingsoftwodiplomaticinstruments:theBudapestMemorandum
andtheMinskagreements.Whilemuchcommentaryaboutthesedocumentsisintelligentandinsightful,thereisalittle-noticedbut
essentialconnectionbetweenthem.First,theinadequaciesofthesedocumentsreflectthepoliticalweaknessoftheWestern
powersthatsignedthem.Second,theMinskagreementsandthebroaderprocesstheygeneratedareanimportantpartofthe
WestsresponsetofulfillingitsBudapestcommitments.Correctlyunderstood,theMinskprocessisessentialtostoppingMoscow
intheDonbas.
Inthe1994BudapestMemorandum,UkraineagreedtogiveupitsnuclearweaponsinexchangeforassurancesfromRussia,the
UnitedKingdom,andtheUnitedStatestoconsultincaseofthreatstoitsterritorialintegrityandsovereignty.WhenRussiaannexed
CrimeainMarch2014,UkrainewassorelydisappointedtodiscoverthatBudapestMemorandumconsultationsproduceda
ratherweakWesternresponsesimplyanumberofsmallsanctions.EvenMoscowshybridwarintheDonbasproducedonly
limitedsanctions.OnlyaftertheJuly2015shoot-downoftheMalaysianairlinerbyaRussianmissiledidtheEUfollowthe
AmericanleadandimposepunishingsanctionsonMoscowsenergyandfinancialsectors.
TheMinskagreementshavealsoseverelydisappointedUkraine.ThefirstMinskceasefireinSeptember2014didpreventthe
destructionofUkrainianarmedforcesaroundthetownofIlovaisk,butitwasalsosupposedtoproduceanendtothefightingthat
nevermaterialized.BetweenthefirstandsecondMinskagreements,Ukrainedidnotenjoyadayofpeace:inthatperiod,
hundredsofUkrainiansoldiersdied,andMoscowseizedmoreUkrainianterritory.
Moscow'sJanuary2015offensivetotakethetownofDebaltsevespurredtheEUtoanewroundofdiplomacy,whichledtothe
secondceasefireinFebruary2015.However,thetermsoftheagreementwerenotablyworse.First,MinskIIgivestheauthorities
inthe"DonetskPeople'sRepublic"(DNR)andthe"LuhanskPeople'sRepublic"(LNR)therighttoretaintheirownarmedforces.
Second,itcallsforconstitutionalreforminUkrainethatwouldgrantautonomytotheDNRandLNRinambiguouslanguagethat
MoscowinterpretsasgivingthoseregionsavetooverUkrainesnationalsecuritypolicy.(UkraineandtheWestdonotsharethat
interpretation.)Third,itcallsforelectionsintheKremlin-dominatedareasbeforeUkraineregainscontrolofitsborderwithRussia.
Inshort,MoscowwasrewardedforitsdailyviolationsofMinskI.Insteadoffacingadditionalsanctionsforincreasingaggression,
itwasgrantedmorefavorableterms.AndeversinceMinskIIwassigned,fightinghasbeenongoing,andtheDNRandLNRhave
addedovertwohundredsquarekilometersofterritory.Andwhilethisishappening,theEUhaspressuredUkrainetopassan
electionslawfortheLNRandDNR.
Inaddition,MinskexcludestheUnitedStatesfromthediplomaticprocessdesignedtoendthewar.Soitisnotsurprisingthat
manyinUkrainebelievethatMinskisfatallyflawed,thatUkrainehasnoobligationtopassalocalelectionslaw,andthatUkraine
shouldwalkawayfromMinskanddemandanewframework.
Thatapproach,however,wouldbeaseriousmistake.Perhapshistoriansandcommentatorshavetheluxuryoffocusingtheir
attentionontheweaknessesofWesterndiplomacy,butUkraine'sleadershavenosuchoption.
Ukraine'sleadersneedtounderstandthelimitsontheirpartnersinEurope.GermanChancellorAngelaMerkelhasbeenthepillar
ofEUsanctionspolicy.MerkelhaskeptFrenchPresidentFrancoisHollandeandtherestoftheEUonboardwithsanctions.Her
continuedsuccess,however,cannotbetakenforgranted.TheDutchreferenduminAprilopposingtheEU'stradeagreementwith
Ukraine,andthevotesbytheFrenchNationalAssemblyinAprilandtheFrenchSenateinJuneonliftingthesanctionsonRussia,
alldemonstratethattheEUisnotinapositiontopursueastrongerpolicy.BritainsexitfromtheEUhasalsoweakenedthepro-
sanctionscampintheEU.
Fortunately,thesanctionspolicyoftheEUandtheUScoupledwiththegrowingmilitaryassistancecomingfromsomeWestern
countriesmaybesufficienttohelpUkraineultimatelywinintheeast.Betweenthedropinhydrocarbonpricesandsanctions,
MoscowsGNPdropped3.7percentin2015and1.4percentinthefirstthreemonthsof2016.AccordingtotheIMF,the
sanctionswereresponsiblefor1-1.5percentofthe2016decline.TheRussianstandardoflivingdropped9.5percentin2015and
alargedropisexpectedthisyear.AfterinsistingforwelloverayearthatWesternsanctionswerehavingnoimpact,Moscownow
acknowledgestheimpactandiscallingfortheirremoval.
TherearealsoindicationsthatMoscowunderstandsitsUkrainepolicyisfailing.SinceRussiasinterventioninSyria,Ukrainehas
ceasedtobetheprincipalstoryintheRussianmedia,andthisgivestheKremlinmoreflexibilityinmanagingthecrisis.Inaddition
totheMinsknegotiatingprocess,topKremlinaideVyacheslavSurkovhasbeenmeetingregularlywithUSAssistantSecretaryof
StateVictoriaNulandsinceJanuary.Reportedly,thosemeetingshaveavoidedmuchofthecantthatfillstheMinsknegotiationsand
haveinvolvedtheexchangeofseriousideasthatcouldcontributetoendingthewarintheDonbas.
TheObamaadministration,whichhadpreviouslydescribedtheKremlinswarinUkraineasaregionalcrisis,hasalsoshownan
increasedinterestinfindingasolution.USNationalSecurityAdvisorSusanRicesaidearlierthismonththatperhapsthisconflict
canberesolvedbeforetheendoftheObamaadministration.ThissuggeststhatseniorlevelsinWashingtonaregivingmorebacking
tothediplomaticeffortsoftheindefatigableNuland.
NoneofthismeansthatMoscowhasmadeanydecisionstostepback.ButtheypointtoaMinskprocesswhichisbetterthanthe
termsofthefirstMinskagreement:WesternsanctionsareholdingfirmWesternleadersstilldemandKremlinimplementationofits
MinskcommitmentsinexchangeforsanctionsreliefdomesticproblemsaregrowingforPutinandtheAmericanrolein
negotiationsisbecomingmoreprominent.
UkrainesleaderssurelyunderstandthattheyshouldnotupendthisfavorablemomentumbywalkingawayfromMinsk.They
understandtoothattokeepsanctionsinplacetheymustbeopentopassinganelectionslawfortheLNRandtheDNRthat
protectsUkrainesinterests.OnehopesthatthosepoliticiansnotdirectlyresponsibleforUkrainesforeignpolicyunderstandthis
aswell.
JohnE.HerbstisDirectoroftheDinuPatriciuEurasiaCenterattheAtlanticCouncil.HeservedasUSAmbassadorto
Ukrainefrom2003to2006.
[ODthoughts:AgreatdiscussionaboutMinskbytwogenuinesupportersofUkraineandanexamplewherethereare
compellingargumentstobothsidesofthedebate.Heresmytwohryvni,forwhatitsworth.Obviously,nobodyis
naveabouttheseriousshortcomingsofMinskoritslong-termprospects.AsDavidandIhavediscussedon
occasion,IleanmoretoJohnsarguments,perhapsstemmingfrommyownprofessionalexperienceswithcertainkey
Europeancountriesoverthedecadeswheremyexpectationsofthemonthesekindsofissuesareoftenratherlow.IfI
thought,asDavidrightlycallsfor,thatafterscrappingMinsk,WesternnationswouldmakecleartoRussiathat
sanctionswouldremaininplaceandevenbeincreasedovertime,IwouldbeinfavorofdoingawaywithMinsk
pronto!Alas,Isimplyhaveahardtimeseeingthathappen,atleastinthenear-term,givenpoliticalweaknessin
Europe.DumpingMinskwouldremovetheprimaryjustificationformaintainingsanctions,akeyperhapsthekey-
-sourceofleverageoverMoscowandevenotherwisereduceEUsupportforUkraine.Weakeningsanctionscould
emboldenPutininextremelydangerouswayswhilecontinuingthemmight,justmight,givesomehopefora
resolution.IagreewithDavidinnotputtingpressureonKyiv(oratleastnottoomuch),giventhatsomeofthe
decisionstheymightneedtotakearepoliticallydifficult,ifnotimpossible.Imnotsure,however,thatanelection
lawfallsintothatcategory.Afterall,MinskcallsforanyelectionsintheDonbastobeconsistentwithboth
UkrainianelectionlawandOSCEelectionstandards.ImveryskepticalastowhetherDonbaselectionscantake
placeunlessthereisaradicalchangeinstatusquo--eveninthehighlyunlikelyeventthatthesecuritysituation
weretostabilizetoallowforsuchelections.Fordemocraticelections,youneedanenvironmentwherethereisalevel
playingfieldforallpartiesandcandidates,andforthatyouneedbasicfreedomsofassociation,assembly,expression,
mediaandsemblanceofruleoflaw,whichsimplyisnotpossiblegiventhethuggish,criminalotamanyrunning
theso-calledDNRandLNR.IdoubtthattheOSCEwouldobserve,muchlessblesssuchanelection.So,giventhat,
whatstheharmdoneinpassingadecentelectionlawwhichwouldprovidefordemocraticelections,includingIDP
votingalaw,asJohnsays,thatprotectsUkrainesinterests--ifthathelpskeeptosomeofoursquishyEuropean
friendsonboardwithsanctionsandsupportforUkraine,and,dareIsay,evensomeatthehighestlevelsofourown
Administration.Inotherwords,whatstheharmdoneinUkraineshowingitselftobeasflexibleasitreasonably
canbewithoutdamagingitsinterests?Irealizethatmineisnotapopularviewamongsome(includingsomeRada
membersrepresentingseveralpartiesthatIhavemetwithoverthelastfewmonths),butIthinkitisimportantto
considertheachievable,andnotjusttheaspirational.Onelastpoint:Asregularreadersknow,Istronglybelievein
keepingtheheatontheRussiansandtheirseparatistsatrapsonalloftheirmultitudeongoingviolationsofMinsk.
Andweneedtokeepresolutelyrejectingtheabsurdfalseequivalencenarrativethatsuggeststhatbothsidesareto
blameequally.]
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Subject:FW:USDIPLOMATBEATENUPBYFSBOUTSIDEUSEMBASSYINMOSCOW
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
Sent:Wednesday,June29,201611:46AM
To:PaulGobleJonasBernsteimJohnBDunlopTraininblankIanBrzezinskiSENDERSWIMBUSHMatthewCzekajJonChickyTemuri
YakobashviliMamukaTsereteliMamukaKudavaVladimir,SocorAldenWahlstromClintonSmullyanJrJamesG.GidwitzWillemde
VogelMichelleVanCleaveMichaelWSRyanBrianWilliamsNickHerasMargaritaAssenovaZaurShiriyevNihatAlizcanSaban
KardasMatthewBryza
Subject:RE:USDIPLOMATBEATENUPBYFSBOUTSIDEUSEMBASSYINMOSCOW

Unbelievable.....
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russian-fsb-guard-attacks-us-diplomat-outside-moscow-
embassy/2016/06/28/2c42c98c-3d7f-11e6-a66f-aa6c1883b6b1_story.html?wpisrc=nl_most-draw7&wpmm=1
--
Glen
ByJoshRoginJune29at7:01AM
IntheearlymorningofJune6,auniformedRussianFederalSecurityService(FSB)guard
stationedoutsidetheU.S.EmbassyinMoscowattackedandbeatupaU.S.diplomatwhowas
tryingtoenterthecompound,accordingtofourU.S.officialswhowerebriefedontheincident.
ThispreviouslyunreportedattackoccurredjuststepsfromtheentrancetotheU.S.Embassy
complex,whichislocatedinthePresnenskyDistrictinMoscowscitycenter.Afterbeingtackledby
theFSBguard,thediplomatsufferedabrokenshoulder,amongotherinjuries.Hewaseventually
abletoentertheembassyandwasthenflownoutofRussiatoreceiveurgentmedicalattention,
administrationofficialsconfirmedtome.HeremainsoutsideofRussia.
Theattackcausedadiplomaticepisodebehindthescenesthathasnotsurfaceduntilnow.The
StateDepartmentinWashingtoncalledinRussianAmbassadorSergeyI.Kislyaktocomplainabout
theincident,anadministrationofficialsaid.
Themotivefortheattackremainsunclear.OneU.S.officialtoldmethatthediplomatwasseeking
refugeintheembassycomplextoavoidbeingdetainedbytheRussianintelligenceservices.A
differentU.S.officialtoldmethediplomatmayhavebeenworkingasaspyinRussiaunderwhats
knownasdiplomaticcover,whichmeanshewaspretendingtobeaStateDepartmentemployee.
SpokesmenfortheboththeStateDepartmentandtheCIAdeclinedtocommentontheincidentor
whetherornotthediplomatwasinfactanundercoverU.S.spy.
Putin:Russiadoesn'twantanewColdWar
PlayVideo0:55
DuringaquestionandanswersessionattheSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,PresidentVladimirPutinsaidRussia
didnotwantanewColdwarwiththeWestanddidnotliketothinkitwasslippingintoone.(Reuters)
In2013,RussianintelligenceservicesarrestedU.S.diplomatRyanC.Fogle,whomtheyaccusedof
secretlyworkingfortheCIA.Fogle,whowasworkingasathirdsecretaryinthepoliticalsectionof
theU.S.EmbassyinMoscow,wasarrestedcarryingvariousdisguisesandothertoolsofspycraft.
RussiaaccusedhimoftryingtorecruitRussianintelligenceofficers.
AfterinterrogatingFogle,theRussiangovernmentreleasedhimtoU.S.officials,butnot
beforehumiliatinghimintheRussianmediaandchastisingtheU.S.governmentforspyinginside
Russia.FoglewasforcedtoleaveRussia.
IftheU.S.diplomatattackedonJune6wasnotaspy,U.S.officialshavenootherexplanationfor
whytheFSBguardwastryingtostophimfromenteringtheembassy.FSBguardsarestationed
outsidetheU.S.Embassyregularly,administrationofficialssaid.
Opinionsnewsletter AsIreportedthisweek,Russian
Thought-provokingopinionsandcommentary,inyourinboxdaily.harassmentofU.S.diplomatsinRussia
andseveralotherEuropeancountrieshas
Signup
increasedsignificantlysinceU.S.sanctions
wereleviedonRussianofficialsand
PresidentVladimirPutinsassociatesin2014.
OnTuesday,theRussianforeignministrysspokeswoman,MariaZakharova,respondeddirectlyto
mycolumnatapressconferenceandonTwitterandaccusedtheU.S.governmentofdeliberately
underminingbilateralties.
Diplomacyisbasedonreciprocity.ThemoretheUSdamagesrelations,theharderitwillbeforUS
diplomatstoworkinRussia,shesaid.
Eitherway,thefactthattheFSBiswillingtoattackaU.S.diplomatandbeathimuprightinfront
oftheAmericanEmbassyreflectsthattheRussiansecurityservicesarebecomingincreasingly
brash,saidEvelynFarkas,whoservedasdeputyassistantsecretaryofdefenseforRussia,Ukraine
andEurasiafortheObamaadministration.
Ifthisistrue,itsanotherexampleoftheRussiansecurityservicesdemonstratingawillingnessto
breaktaboos,shesaid.Thefactthattheyareusingthesebrutaltacticsagainstforeignersistaking
thingstoawholeotherlevel.
Readmoreaboutthistopic:
JoshRogin:RussiaisharassingU.S.diplomatsalloverEurope
From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 07/06/201612:24:51PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume13,Issue121
Viewthisemailinyourbrowser
July6,2016--Volume13,Issue121
INTHISISSUE
*Moscow,WashingtonconsidernextstepsonUkraine
*whileObamaadministrationlookstocementitslegacywithaUkrainedeal
*Russiadismisses50officersandtopcommandersofBalticSeaFleet
*Karachaevo-CherkessiangovernorsfatemayhingeonUnitedRussiaselectoralfortunes

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)
US,RussiaReactivateBilateralNegotiationsonUkraine

(PartOne)

USAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandcompletedanotherroundofshuttle
diplomacyinKyivandMoscow(June2224),followinguponhervisitstothetwocapitalsin
AprilandMay,ondirectinstructionsfromtheWhiteHouse.Thiseffortwillundoubtedly
continueafterthetimeoutnecessitatedbytheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizations(NATO)
summitinWarsaw(July89).

ForWashington,theambitionistoworkoutwithMoscowthebasicpremisesofapolitical
compromisebetweentheUkrainiangovernmentandthedefactoauthoritiesinDonetskand
Luhansk:ineffect,freezingthiscrisisbyUS-Russiaconsensus,perhapswithsomejoint
documenttoshow.Sucharesult,ifachieved,mightcreatethesemblanceofUS-Russia
cooperationonthisandothercrisisfronts,book-endingBarackObamaspresidencywitha
secondresetacounterparttotheoriginalObamaHillaryClintonresetofrelationswith
Russia.TheUnitedStates,however,isnegotiatingundertimepressure,seekingresultsbefore
theNovemberpresidentialelection.

AtleastsomeKremlinconsultantsrecommendaninterimdealwhilethelame-duckObama
administrationisstillinoffice.Thus,accordingtoDmitrySuslov(TheValdaiPapers,no.49,
June2016),anynewUSpresidentwilllikelyadoptamoreideologicallybased,more
aggressive,strongerattitudetowardRussia,atleastrhetorically,thantheObama
administrationhas.Moreover,iftheMinskagreementsarenotimplementedbythattime,
WashingtonwillfinditdifficulttoresistcallsforsupplyingKyivwithlethalweapons.
Consequently,MoscowshouldcooperateinpartiallyimplementingtheMinskagreements
[]soastoshowsomemovementintheconflict-settlementprocess,reducingtheriskofits
derailmentwiththearrivalofanewUSadministration.But,inparallel,Moscowshouldwork
withEuropeangovernmentstogenerateseriouspressuresonKyivandWashingtontofulfill
thosepointsoftheMinskagreementthatapplytoUkraine,partiallyimplementingMinskand
partiallyliftingtheEuropeanUnionssanctionsbytheendofthisyear,Suslovargues.
Atthisstage,MoscowsminimalrequirementsarethatUkraineadoptaconstitutional
amendmentonthespecialstatusoftheRussian-controlledterritory,anamnestyofthecrimes
ofRussiasarmedproxies,andaspeciallawonelectionsinthatterritory,allinapackagewith
localelectionstobeheldthere.ThatwouldamounttothefirststageinUkrainesfulfillingits
obligationsundertheMinskagreements.Thiswouldpavethewayforthenextstageof
Moscowsagenda,withdirectnegotiationsbetweenKyivandDonetsk-Luhanskontheterms
ofthelattersquasi-sovereignty.
BeyondtheMinsktextitselfasDmitrySimes,thepresidentoftheUSCenterforthe
NationalInterestandacrediblecommunicatorofKremlinperspectivesinWashington,
suggestsMoscowclearlywantstointerprettheMinskagreementsinawaythatnotonly
providestheDonbas[Donetsk-Luhanskpeoplesrepublics]withmeaningfulautonomy,but
alsoallowsregionalgovernmentsineasternUkrainetopreventthecountryfromjoining
NATODoesAmericaevenintendtopermitUkrainetojoinNATO?Ifnot,whycreatethe
impressioninRussiathatthismaybeWashingtonslong-termobjective?(TheNational
Interest,June26).
Atthepresentstage,however,Russiasshort-termobjectives(seeabove)necessitate
acceleratingthepoliticalnegotiationsintheNormandyformatandtheMinskContactGroup.
AsPresidentVladimirPutintoldtheconferenceofRussiasambassadorsaccreditedabroad,
justheldinMoscow,good-neighborlyrelationsbetweenRussiaandUkrainenecessitate
thatKyivatlonglastcomprehendtheinevitabilityofadirectdialoguewithDonetskand
Luhansk,infulfillmentofitsMinskobligations(Interfax,June30).
TopressureUkraineintothatkindofpoliticalprocess,Russiaisresortingtoattritionwarfare
throughitsproxiesinDonetsk-Luhansk.Thistactic,however,turnsRussiaintoasystematic
violatoroftheceasefire,thusblockingthepoliticalprocessthatMoscowitselfaimsto
accelerate.Ukraineiscitingthoseceasefirebreachesasprecludinganypoliticalnegotiations
withRussiasproxies.TosomeWesterndiplomats,however,thefightinganditspossible
escalationbyRussiaareargumentsfordefusingthesituationatthecostofpiecemeal
concessionsbyUkraine.Thus,Ukraineisbeingaskedtostartimplementingthepolitical
clausesofMinsk(seeabove)ifRussiarespectstheceasefirefortwomonthscontinuously,as
atestofgoodfaith.Thatwouldsupposedlyfulfillthemainprerequisitetothestartofthe
politicalprocesstowardlegitimizingtheDonetsk-Luhanskauthorities.
Outsidethelegal-politicalframeworkwereittobenegotiatedandagreedtheDonetsk
andLuhanskproto-states,withtheirRussian-ledmilitaryforces,wouldundoubtedlycontinue
toexistdefacto.TheMinskarmisticewhosefullimplementationallsidestheoretically
seekallowsthosetwoMoscow-supportedstateletstoexistastheyare,withorwithout
Ukrainesconsent.ThearmisticeestablishescertainproceduresforKyivtoconsent,butit
alsogivesDonetskandLuhanskthelatitudetoretainanddeveloptheirexistingstructuresde
factowithoutUkrainesconsent.
TheKremlincanbeexpectedtoofferapartial,interimdealthatwouldcompromiseUkraines
positioninallfuturenegotiationse.g.,KyivlegalizingDonetsk-LuhanskasRussian
protectoratesinexchangeforalastingceasefireandapoliticalfreezeontheunresolved
conflict.MoscowmaywellconsiderthetimingofsuchaproposalinrelationtotheUS
presidentialcampaign.

--VladimirSocor
(PartTwo)
PresidentBarackObamasadministrationseemstopursuetwocontradictorygoals:support
Ukrainessovereigntyandsecurityingeneraltermsbut,atthesametime,seekashort-term
compromisethatmightsatisfyRussiainUkraineseast.Preoccupiedwithlegacyissuesin
foreignpolicyasObamassecondandfinaltermcomestoaclose,administrationofficials
apparentlyaimtoshowsomeresultsintheircrisis-managementeffortsUkraineseastbeing
aneasiercasethanSyria,forexamplebeforeNovemberspresidentialelection.The
administrationhasswitchedfromtherhetoricofisolatingMoscowtodirectengagementwith
theKremlinonUkraine.
USAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandhasresumedtheshuttlediplomacyinKyiv
andMoscow(June2224).AlthoughtheUnitedStatesgovernmenthaddeclinedto
participateinnegotiatingtheMinskarmistice,andneverjoinedthefollow-upMinskprocess
directly,itnowaimsforaquickagreementbilaterallywithRussiaonthebasislaiddownin
Minsk.
AccordingtotheUSPresidentsnationalsecurityadvisor,SusanRice,asignificantstart
towardimplementingMinskissomethingthatcouldgetdonebetweennowandtheendof
theadministration,iftheRussiansinparticularexhibitsufficientpoliticalwillWearehopeful,
iftheRussianswanttoresolvethisandwehavesomereasontobelievetheymight.Rice,
whowasspeakingata WashingtonPostevent,acknowledgedatthesametimethatthe
UkrainianparliamentmightnotadoptthelegislativepackagerequiredofUkrainebythe
Minskarmistice(UNIAN,June10).Thatlegislation(seebelow)iswhattheObama
administrationseeksyetagaintogetdoneinKyiv,providedthatMoscowstopsbreaching
theceasefire.Washingtonspreviousattemptstoensurethelegislationispassed(e.g.,inMay
andAugust2015),however,backfiredpoliticallyinKyivandwentunrewardedbyMoscow.
TheUSambassador-designatetoUkraine,MarieYovanovitch,hasoutlinedthecurrentpolicy
inherSenateconfirmationhearing:TheUnitedStatesworksforfullimplementationofthe
Minskagreement,untilwhichtimesanctionsonRussiawillcontinue.Sheadded,A
sustainedimprovementinsecurity[alongthemilitarydemarcationlines]willallowUkraineto
passaDonbas[DPR-LPR]electionlaw,holdlocalelectionsinportionsofeasternUkraine,
andimplementspecialstatusandamnesty.Thesestepsshould[sic]leadtoRussias
withdrawalfromUkraineandrestorationofUkrainescontroloveritssideoftheinternational
border[withRussia](Ukraine.usembassy.gov,June21).
Thetermshould,noncommittalandhortatory,basicallyaspirational,isalsorevealinginthis
context.Indeed,theMinskarmisticedoesnotrequireRussiatowithdrawitsforcesfrom
UkrainesterritoryitdoesnotevenmentionRussiainthatcontext.NordoesMinskstipulate
therestorationofUkrainescontroloveritssideofthe400kilometersectionoftheUkraine-
Russiaborder,nowcontrolledbyRussianandproxyforces.Thearmisticeonlystipulatesthat
KyivcannegotiatewithDonetsk-Luhanskaboutsharingcontrolofthatborder,andonlyafter
KyivlegalizesRussiasproxyauthoritiesthere.ThearmisticeallowsDonetsk-Luhanskto
maintaintheirarmedforces(dubbedirregularonpaper,butRussian-ledandamply
equippedwitharmorandartillery)aspartofawould-bespecialstatusoftheseenclaves
(UNIAN,Osce,org,February12,2015).
ThisarmisticedemandsUkrainianconcessionstoDonetskandLuhanskintheconstitutional
andlegalfield,withoutRussianreciprocationinthemilitaryandsecurityfield.Nosuch
tradeoffexistsinthisarmistice.Instead,itcastsRussiaasarbiterofaninner-Ukrainian
conflict,inlinewithRussiasdefinitionsofitsroleandofthatconflict.Ukrainesconcessions,if
made,wouldbegratis.MoscowsdemandsforlegalandconstitutionalchangesinUkraineare
actuallyinfullconformitywiththetextoftheMinskarmistice(UNIAN,Osce.org,February
12,2015).
TheUnitedStateshadnohandinthatarmisticeandhasdeclinedtojoinanynegotiations
format,suchastheNormandyquartet(Germany,France,UkraineandRussia),chargedwith
implementingtheMinskarmistice.NeverthelesstheUShelpedenshrinetheMinskdocument
promptlyinaUnitedNationsSecurityCouncilresolution(see EDM,February23,2015),
whichMoscowisfondofcontinuallyreferencingashavingtheforceofinternationallaw.
Thosearmisticestipulationsanditsloopholes,allinRussiasfavor,areworthrecallingwhen
USorEuropeanofficialscallfortheimplementationofthatdocument.Forexample,State
DepartmentspokesmanJohnKirby,introducingNulandslatestmission,declared,witha
senseofurgency:Aswevesaidmanytimes,wewanttoseeMinskfullyimplemented,as
soonaspossible.ItwillbegoodforpeaceandsecurityinUkraine,goodforrelations
betweenRussiaandUkraine,goodforrelationsbetweentheUSandouralliesandRussia
(State.gov,June22).Similarly,theUSambassadorinMoscow,JohnTefft,referencing
PresidentObamasinstructions,explainedthatthesituationinUS-Russiarelationswould
significantlychangeiftheMinskdocumentsimplementationproceedsbeforetheUS
presidentialelection(Interfax,June20,27).
Suchstatementsevinceagrowingsenseofurgencytodealwiththisproblemunderthetime
constraintsoftheUSpresidentialelectioncalendar.Theyalsoshowarethinkingoftheoverall
policytowardRussia,viewingthesituationinUkraineseastincreasinglythroughtheprismof
US-Russiarelations.AsimilarshiftisproceedingevenfasterinEurope.TheWestscollective
setbacksonmultipleinternationalfrontsgeneratetheperceptionthatRussiacanhelpmitigate
thosecrises,evenasRussiainfactexploitsandexacerbatesthoseconflicts.
--VladimirSocor
TheRussianBalticSeaFleetANestofCrime?
RussianMinisterofDefenseSergeiShoigusackedthecommanderoftheBalticSeaFleet
(basedoutofBaltiysk,Kaliningradoblast),ViceAdmiralViktorKravchuk,andhischiefof
staff,ViceAdmiralSergeyPopov,onJune29(Vesti.ru,June29).Dayslater,newsemerged
thatanumberofotherBalticFleetofficersabout50accordingtoRussianmediahavealso
beendismissedandforcedtoleavetheArmedForcesorweretransferredtootherfleetsand
demoted(Flot.com,July1).Thereasonsfortheseharshmeasuressurgerywithout
anesthesiaasRussianmediasourcescharacterizeditwereseriousdeficienciesinthe
organizationoftrainingandtheday-to-dayactivitiesoftheunits,nottakingallnecessary
measurestoimprovethelivingconditionsofthepersonnel,alackofconcernforsubordinates,
aswellasdistortionsinthereportsoftheactualstateofaffairs(RIANovosti,June29).
Thesepublicsackingswereunprecedented:inthepast,instancesofhigh-rankingofficers
forcedoutoftheirpositionsweregenerallyexplainedawaybyageorbadhealth.
Followingthedismissals,ViceAdmiralAleksanderNosatovhastemporarilybeenappointed
commanderoftheBalticFleetandtaskedwithputtingthingsinorder,whileViceAdmiralIgor
Mukhametshinwill,fornow,actastheFleetschiefofstaff(Mil.ru,July1).Withinsixmonths,
anewinspectionwilltakeplacebutitremainsanopenquestionastowhether,bythen,the
BalticFleetwillhaverisenfromtheasheslikeaPhoenix.
ViceAdmiralKravchukservedassecondincommandwithintheBalticFleetsince2009and,
from2012,asitscommander.Apparently,duringhistenure,thecircumstancessurrounding
theFleetwentfrombadtoworse(Lenta.ru,June30 Fontanka.ru,June29).Kravchukis
reportedlyclosetotheformercommanderoftheRussianNavy,AdmiralViktorChirkov.His
othernotablefriendsandcloseassociatesincludetheso-calledamberbaron,Viktor
Bogdan,whohasallegedlysoldfuelstolenfromtheBalticSeaFleetandcontrolsthe
smugglingofamberfromKaliningradoblasttoPoland(Fontanka.ruJune29Radiopolsha.pl
July1).
MikhailNenashev,thechairmanoftheAll-RussianMovementforSupportoftheNavy,
believesthemassdismissalofBalticFleetofficersisanabsurdcoincidenceoramistake
(Fontanka.ruJune29).HetruststhatthenewheadoftheRussianNavy,AdmiralVladimir
Korolev,willlookintothematterandpresentanobjectiveassessmentofhowthingsstandin
theBalticFleet.Nenashevlikelydoesnothaveaccesstoallthefactsorissimplytryingto
protecthisown.Whatheseesasamistakewasapparentlyanythingbutindeed,the
dismissalofKravchukandtheothernavalofficersresulteddirectlyfromaMay11June10
inspectionoftheBalticSeaFleetbytheRussianGeneralStaff.Whatinitiatedthisinspectionis
unclear.ButmilitaryprosecutorsintheBalticFleethad,timeandagain,calledAdmiral
Kravchuksattentiontoanumberofirregularities.Andyet,noactionswereevertakenbythe
Fleetshighcommand,sosuchrequestsforaninvestigationmayhave,instead,been
redirectedathigherauthorities(Interfax,July1).Otherpossibilitiesthatcannotbeexcluded
arethatawhistleblowerwasinvolved,orperhapstheRussianministerofdefensehimself
sensedthatsomethingwaswrongduringhisvisittoKaliningradoblastlastMarch.Onesource
claimsthatapurportedcollisionbetweenaRussianmilitarysubmarineandaPolishnaval
vesselinMarchanincidenttheBalticFleetcommandhastriedtohideordownplay
triggeredtherecentmonth-longinspection(Fontanka.ruJune29).
TojudgefromtheoutstandingproblemsreportedlyplaguingtheBalticFleet,thereisreasonto
assumethattheofficiallydeclaredmotivesfortheshakeupsintheFleetshighcommand
correspondwithreality.Specifically(Fontanka.ru,June29 Lenta.ru,June30 Ruwest.ru,
June27):
Seventy-threefamiliesofofficersintheBalticFleetarelivinginbuildingsindangerof
collapsing.Andthesestructuresadditionallylackwarmwaterandtoiletfacilities.
AftertheJuly2015tragedyinOmsk,whereafour-storyarmybarrackscollapsed,
killing23servicemen,allRussianmilitarybuildingswereinspected.Nobuildings
sufferingfromsimilarstructuralproblemswerereportedlyfoundintheBalticFleet,but
infactthepersonnelweretoldtokeepquietabouttherealsituation.
Accidents,includingfires,haveperiodicallyoccurredaboardBalticFleetships.
InAugust2015,amine-clearingexerciseintheBalticSeaendedwithabominable
resultsfortheparticipatingvessels.Yet,officialreportsstatedthatalltaskswere
completedsatisfactorily.
Theillegalextractionofamberwasfoundinconnectionwiththerebuildingofthe
ChkalovsknavalairbaseinKaliningradoblast.
Thelocaleconomyhasbeenseriouslymismanaged.
Thedismissalofmorethantwodozenhigh-rankingofficersinresponsetotheBalticSea
FleetsshortcomingsshouldbeseeninlightofhowMoscowperceivesincreasedactivityin
theBalticregionbytheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO).Russiaisfocusingonits
westernstrategicdirectionandasDefenseMinisterShoiguhasstated,strengtheningthe
countrysmilitarycapabilitiesinthatdirectionisanappropriateanswertoNATO
(Tvzvezda.ru,June30).Inthiscontext,theBalticFleetandKaliningradoblastasawholeplay
acrucialrole.Assuch,fromamilitarypointofview,theareaisbeinggivenhighprioritybutin
comparisonwiththeArcticandCrimea,notmuchhadbeentangiblyachievedinKaliningrad
sofar.ItremainstobeseenwhethertherecentdrasticshakeupintheBalticFleetscommand
willhaveanegativeimpactintheshortterm.Butalmostcertainly,themilitaryunitsstationedin
theBalticSearegionwillnowbereceivingmuchgreaterinterestfromMoscowforalongtime
tocome.
--JrgenElfving
Karachaevo-CherkessiasGovernorFacesToughChallengeinUpcomingElection
Period
WithRussiasSeptember2016parliamentaryelectionsfastapproaching,thepoliticalelitesin
theNorthCaucasusarebecomingincreasinglynervous.Thecountrycontinuestobe
embroiledinaneconomiccrisis,whichisforcingachangeintherelationsbetweenMoscow
andregionalgovernors,whiletheoverallpoliticalsituationbecomesevermorefluid.Although
theRussiangovernmentwilllikelytrytorigthevote,asusual,nationalelectionsarestillseen
asalegitimizationritualfortherulingUnitedRussiaparty.Hence,governorswhodonot
deliverasufficientlylargenumberofvotesforUnitedRussiacouldfaceseriousrepercussions.
ThegovernorofKarachaevo-Cherkessia,RashidTemrezov,isoneoftheNorthCaucasus
governorsmostatrisk.HispositionisprecariousbecauseUnitedRussiafacesformidable
oppositioninKarachaevo-Cherkessia,andTemrezovhasmanagedtomakemanypowerful
enemiesintherepublic.PresidentVladimirPutinconfirmedTemrezovsstatusas
Karachaevo-CherkessiasactinggovernorjustdaysbeforeTemrezovsfirsttermasgovernor
wassettoexpireonMarch1.KeepingKarachaevo-Cherkessiaselitesinsuspenseindicated
thattheKremlinwasconsideringothercandidatesforgovernor.Thefactthatelectionstothe
regionalparliamentandtheRussianStateDumawillbeheldsimultaneouslyinSeptember
providedMoscowwiththepretexttoremovethoseNorthCaucasusgovernorswhofailto
electasufficientnumberofUnitedRussiadeputies,accordingtolocalobservers.Aspartof
itsstrategytoensureUnitedRussiawinsintheNorthCaucasus,Moscowappointedregional
governorsasinterimleadersofUnitedRussia,whorunforparliamentascandidatesonparty
lists.However,oncetheelectionsareover,thegovernorssimplyrefusetotaketheir
parliamentaryseatandalowerrankingUnitedRussia apparatchik(loyalbureaucratic
functionary)isdelegatedinstead.Sincegovernorsarewellknownintherepublicsandhave
de-factocontrolofthelocalelectoralcommissions,therulingpartyinvariablywinselections
therebyalargemargin(Onkavkaz.com,June28).
Thistried-and-truescheme,however,doesnotalwayswork.Itisespeciallylikelytofailin
suchamultiethnicandpoliticallydividedrepublicasKarachaevo-Cherkessia.Turkic-speaking
Karachays,forexample,compriseapluralityintherepublicandcontrolmuchofthe
governmentapparatus.However,theCherkess(Circassians)andtheAbazaalsohavestrong
andwell-organizedstructures,eventhoughtheyareintheminority.Moreover,severalgroups
inKarachaevo-Cherkessiahavetheirownautonomousstatuswithintherepublic,which
makesiteasierforthemtoorganizeforpoliticalaction.Apartfromthedisgruntledminorities,
theKarachaysthemselvesalsoappeartobequitedividedoverTemrezovsleadership.
Karachaevo-Cherkessiahasafewpoliticallystrongcivilsocietyorganizationsthatare
normallyarrangedalongethniclines.Toshieldthemselvesfromcriticism,republicanofficials
organizedtheirownparallelcivilorganizationsthatdothegovernmentsbidding.For
example,therearetwomaincivilsocietyorganizationsofethnicKarachaysanindependent
CongressoftheKarachayPeopleandagovernment-sponsoredorganizationcalledKarachay
AlanKhalk.Thedeputyspeakeroftherepublicanparliament,RuslanKhabov,alsoleads
KarachayAlanKhalk.KarachayswereamongtheethnicgroupsoftheformerSovietUnion
thatweredeportedtoKazakhstanenmassebyJosephStalinforallegedcollaborationwith
theGermansduringtheSecondWorldWar.Now,Karachayactivistssaythatthegovernment
hasfailedtorehabilitatethemfully.Karachayvillageslackbasicfacilitiesandjoblessnessis
rampant.Karachaevo-CherkessiaistheonlyNorthCaucasianrepublicthathasnodirect
connectiontoMoscoweitherviaanairlinkorbyrailway.Peoplecryandareontheir
knees,saidAzimSalpagarov,theeditoroftheregionalnewspaperKubanskieVesti.Many
bureaucratsareinvolvedinbusinessactivitiesandworkforthemselves.Thosepeoplesimply
makemoney,andtheydonotcarethatordinarypeopleintherepublicfaceenormous
problemsduetothepricehikesandcreditdebts(Yug.svpressa.ru,June24).
TemrezovwasconnectedtoMustafaBatdyev,whowasKarachaevo-Cherkessiaspresident
from2003to2008.Afterascandalinvolvingthegruesomemurderofagroupofbusinessmen
byBatdyevsson-in-law,AliKaitov,andanensuinguprisingintherepublic,Batdyevwas
removedfromoffice.TemrezovunexpectedlycametopowerinKarachaevo-Cherkessiain
2011,aftertheprematureresignationofthepreviousgovernoroftherepublic,BorisEbzeyev.
AfterTemrezovcametopower,however,heandBatdyevreportedlyhadafallingout
(Onkavkaz.com,June18,2015).
Morerecently,TemrezovhasfacedoppositionfromAliyTotorkulov,apopularand
charismaticpoliticalfigurewhoattemptedtoparticipateinUnitedRussiasprimaryelections,
butwassidelined.TotorkulovpromisedtofighthiswaytotheRussianStateDumaas
Karachaevo-CherkessiasrepresentativedespiteTemrezovsopposition.However,
TotorkulovwasappointeddeputychairmanoftheCouncilforNationalitiesinMoscow
(Kuban.kp.ru,June27).Thegesturewasapparentlymeanttoappeasetheambitious
independentKarachaevo-Cherkessianpoliticianandhelprepublicanauthorities.
DespiteTotorkulovsretreat,thereareotherfiguresandforcesinKarachaevo-Cherkessia
thatcanstillchallengeTemrezovsrulebyvotingagainsttheUnitedRussiaparty.Finally,the
economichurdlesthattheregionisfacingcouldeasilyupendthesituationintherepublic,
whichhaspersistentlylackedeithergovernmentorprivateinvestmentinrecentdecades.
--ValeryDzutsati
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Senttime: 06/30/201609:40:48AM
FW:[6-29EVEITEMSOFINTEREST][ANT/F]Dutchwants'binding'assurancesoverUkrainedeal/NATOSummitSpecialSeries:Poland/USv
Subject:
RUontheHighSeas.[ODDDII]Ukraine:WP,AC(2)+ODNote[ED:DaveKandJohnHACDebateandODReflectionson...
Sent:Wednesday,June29,20167:42PM
Subject:Fwd:[6-29EVEITEMSOFINTEREST][ANT/F]Dutchwants'binding'assurancesoverUkrainedeal/NATOSummitSpecial
Series:Poland/USvRUontheHighSeas.[ODDDII]Ukraine:WP,AC(2)+ODNote[ED:DaveKandJohnHACDebateandOD
Reflectionson...
Subject:[6-29EVEITEMSOFINTEREST][ANT/F]Dutchwants'binding'assurancesoverUkrainedeal/NATOSummit
SpecialSeries:Poland/USvRUontheHighSeas.[ODDDII]Ukraine:WP,AC(2)+ODNote[ED:DaveKandJohnH
ACDebateandODReflectionsontheDebate.all"ThoughtfulReads"]..[JDDDII]JoshR:USDIPLOMATBEATEN
UPBYFSBOUTSIDEUSEMBASSYINMOSCOW[AgreewithGH:"Unbelievable"]
Date:Wed,Jun29,2016at10:24AM
Subject:Dutchwants'binding'assurancesoverUkrainedeal/NATOSummitSpecialSeries:Poland/
To:
DutchPMRuttewants'binding'assurancesoverEU'sUkrainedeal
http://in.reuters.com/article/ukraine-crisis-eu-idINKCN0ZF07P
...
"Whatweneedisalegallybindingsolution,whichwilladdressthemanyworriesandelementsofthediscussioninthe
Netherlandsleadinguptothereferendum,"RuttesaidafteranEUleaders'summitinBrusselstodiscussthe
aftermathofBritain'svotelastweektoleavethebloc.
ThedebatearoundthereferendumintheNetherlands,whichshoweddissatisfactionwithRutte'sgovernmentand
policy-makinginBrussels,zeroedinonwhethertheagreementwithKievwouldheraldEUmembershipfor
Ukraineandits45millionpeople.
"Theexactform-Idon'tknowyet,"Ruttesaid."Itcouldbethatwehavetochangethetext,itcouldbethatwecan
findasolutionwhichwillnotinvolvechangingthetextoftheassociationagreement.Idon'tknowyet.
"IfIamnotabletoachievethat...wewillnotsign,"hesaid."Wewilltrytofindasolution,itwillbedifficult,the
chancesaresmallthatwewillgettherebutIthinkweshouldtry."
ThewholedealcouldbederailedshouldTheHaguerefusetoratifyit
June28,2016
NATOSummitSpecialSeries:Poland
ByIanBrzezinski
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/nato-summit-special-series-poland
NATOsmeetingofheadsofstateonJuly8thinWarsawwillbetheAlliancesmostimportantsummitsincethefallof
theBerlinWall.
...PolandwantstheAlliancetodeepenitsrelationshipwithUkraine.Polandwasamongthefirstalliestoinsistthatthe
WarsawsummitincludeaheadsofstatemeetingwithUkrainetounderscoreNATOsolidaritywithKiev.Warsaw
supportsexpandingtheAlliancessecurityassistancetoUkraine,sothatthereinforcementofNATOseastern
frontierdoesnotinadvertentlysignalWesternacceptanceofanewgreyzoneinEuropeopentoRussianhegemony
andoccupation...
EnsuringStabilityintheOSCERegionwithRespecttoUkraine:StatementataSpecial
Session
http://osce.usmission.gov/ensuring-stability-osce-region-respect-ukraine-statement-special-session-2016-asrc/
...RussiaclaimsthattheconflictineasternUkraineisinternal.Russiacontinuestosupplypersonnelandequipment
tocombined-Russian-separatistmilitaryforcesinDonbas.TheOSCEandUkrainianmilitaryhavedocumented
RussianshipmentstocombinedRussian-separatistforcesshipmentsofsophisticatedhardwarethatdoesnotexistin
Ukrainianarsenals,includingtheso-calledelectronicwarfareChristmastrees,theMRO-Aman-portable
thermobaricrocketlaunchers,andSA-15Gauntletmissiles.
Atthesametime,Moscowhassoughttoconcealthisinvolvementbypursuingastrategyofblindingthe
OSCEsSpecialMonitoringMissionbyrestrictingmonitorsaccesstoseparatist-controlledterritory,employing
threatsandintimidation,andsystematicallydestroyingOSCEcamerasandUAVs.
JasonHealey
RUfrigatesignaled"restrictedabilitytomaneuver"butmatchedUSdestroyertointerferew/USSTrumaninEast
Med
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense-news/2016/06/28/russia-navy-destroyer-frigate-gravely-yaroslav-mudry-
neustrashimy-mediterranean-truman-carrier-collision-encounter/86481616/
TheincidenttookplaceJune17intheeasternMediterraneanSea,andinvolvedtheUSdestroyerGravelyand
theRussianfrigateYaroslavMudry.
[ED:TheRU-sskiescouldn'tusesometubnamedIvanGroznyorKaterynaBolshoyaorevenJosefStalinnothey
insistedononebearingthenameofaKyivanmonarchwhosedaughtersbecomequeensinWestern,Centraland
NorthernEurope]
Subject:Ukraine:WP,AC(2)+ODNote[ED:DaveKandJohnHandOD.all"ThoughtfulReads"]
TheWashingtonPost
Music
OperaticbaritonekilledinUkrainefighting
ByAssociatedPress
June29at9:37AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/entertainment/music/operatic-baritone-killed-in-ukraine-fighting/2016/06/29/d32f03ac-3dfa-
11e6-9e16-4cf01a41decb_story.html
MOSCOWAUkrainianbaritonewhoperformedinFrenchoperaproductionsfornearlytwodecadesbeforejoininga
volunteerbattalioninwarringeasternUkrainehasbeenkilledinthefighting.
UkrainiannewsreportscitedthenationalistgroupPravySektorassayingWassylSlipakwaskilledonWednesdaybyasniper.
ThereportssaidSlipakhadabandonedhissingingcareertwoyearsagotojointhefightofUkrainiansoldiersandvolunteers
againstRussia-backedrebels.Nearly9,500peoplehavebeenkilledintheconflict,accordingtoU.N.figures.
SlipakhadperformedattheParisNationalOperaandproductionsthroughoutFrance,accordingtohiswebpage.
InastatementonWednesday,IvanSimonovic,headoftheU.N.HumanRightschiefsofficeinNewYork,saidthedeathtollof
early9,500includesupto2,000civilians.
Simonovicsaidinthepastmonthhalfofallciviliancasualtieswerecausedbyshellingfrommortarsandhowitzers-weapons
whichuseintheconflictzoneareprohibitedbytheMinskAgreements.
Simonovicwarnedofapossiblere-escalationofwide-scalehostilitiesifurgentactionisnottakentoseparatesidesandremove
heavyweaponry.
AtlanticCouncil(2)
JUNE28,2016
It'sTimetoScraptheMinskAgreement
BYDAVIDJ.KRAMER
EditorsNote:OnJune22,AmbassadorJohnHerbstandDavidKramerdebatedwhetherweshouldburytheMinsk
agreement,thetroubledceasefireagreementinUkraine,atanAtlanticCouncileventinWashington,DC.Their
remarkshavebeenadaptedfromthedebate.
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/it-s-time-to-scrap-the-minsk-agreement
TheMinskceasefireagreement,signedFebruary15,2015,bytheleadersofRussia,Ukraine,Germany,andFrance,alongwith
representativesfromtheOSCEandfromRussian-occupiedareasofDonetskandLuhansk(DNRandLNR,respectively),is
simplynotworking.ItistimetoscrapitandmakecleartoRussia,throughadeclarationfromWesternnations,thatsanctionswill
remaininplaceandwillbeincreasedovertimeunlessRussiameetsseveralkeyconditions.Theseincludewithdrawalofits
forcesandweaponsfromUkraine(includingCrimea),respectofUkraine'ssovereigntyandterritorialintegrity,controlofthe
borderrestoredtoUkrainianauthorities,andthereturntoUkraineofthosecitizensitkidnappedfromUkrainianterritory.Further
negotiationswithMoscowarepointlessgiventhatRussianofficialswontevenacknowledgethepresenceoftheirforceson
Ukrainiansoil.
TherehavenotbeenanynewsanctionsimposedonRussiadespiteitsfailuretoliveuptoasingleconditionundertheMinsk
accord.Instead,anumberofEuropeanleaders,ledbyGermanForeignMinisterFrank-WalterSteinmeierandViceChancellor
SigmarGabriel,alongwiththeFrenchparliamentandothers,haveirresponsiblycalledforaneasingifnotoutrightliftingof
sanctions.WithoutGermanChancellorAngelaMerkel,renewalofEUsanctionswouldbeinjeopardy.
DefendersofMinskargueithasreducedthefighting.Infact,morethanfourthousandUkrainianshavebeenkilledsincethe
secondMinskdealwassignedlastyear,almosthalfthenumberoftotalcasualtiessinceRussiainvadedUkraineinlateFebruary
2014.AseriousuptickinfightinginthepasttwomonthsfurtherbeliestheclaimthatMinskhaspreservedthepeace.
Inaddition,defendersofthedealclaimitistheonlyactintown.ThesamecouldhavebeensaidafterthefirstMinskdealwas
signedinSeptember2014,butfivemonthslateritwasreplacedwithanevenworsedeal.Infact,suchclaimsareexcusesfornot
engaginginthenecessary,albeitdifficult,workofcomingupwithaninnovativealternativetoMinsk.Thiswouldrequire
involvementatthepresidentiallevelintheUnitedStates,andPresidentBarackObama,regrettably,hasshownlittleinterestinsuch
engagement,delegatinginsteadresponsibilityforresolvingthecrisistoMerkel.
UkrainesignedMinskandthereforemustabidebyit,thedealsdefendersfurtherclaim.Ofcourse,theUnitedStatesandUnited
Kingdom,aswellasRussia,signedthe1994BudapestMemorandumadealthatactuallyworkedinconvincingUkraineto
relinquishitsSoviet-inheritednuclearweaponsinexchangefortheothersignatoriesrespectforitssovereigntyandterritorial
integrity.ButnobodyinofficialpositionsotherthanUkrainiansraisestheBudapestMemorandumthesedays.
Moreover,MinskforcedUkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenko,undertremendouspressureasRussianforcesweresurrounding
Debaltseve,tocommittosomethingthatonlytheUkrainianparliamentcandonamely,passaconstitutionalamendmentand
legislativereformpavingthewayforlocalelectionsintheDNRandLNR.PoroshenkosimplydoesnthavethevotesintheRada
topasstheconstitutionalamendment,whichrequiresthreehundredvotes.Fourpeoplewerekilleddemonstratingagainstthe
RadasconsiderationofsuchlegislationlastAugust,reflectingthehighlysensitiveissuethisisforUkraine.
ThemostcogentargumentformaintainingMinskisthattheonlywaytokeeptheEuropeansonboardwithsanctionsisby
demonstratingRussiannoncompliancewiththeaccordsprovisions.Theproblemwiththisargument,however,isthatMinskisalso
beingusedtopressureUkraineintopassingthelegislationandamendmentsforlocalelectionsintheDNRandLNR.ThisWestern
pressureonKyivshouldcease.
UkrainedoesnotcontroltheDNRandLNRregionshowcanitpossiblypasslegislation,evenprovisionally,callingforlocal
electionsthere?Whataboutthe1.7milliondisplacedpeoplewilltheygetanopportunitytoparticipateintheelections?
AccordingtotheMinskdeal,electionsintheseregionsaretobeconductedinaccordancewithUkrainianlegislationandin
accordancewithrelevantOSCEstandardsandmonitoredbyOSCE/ODIHR.HowcanthisbewhenRussiacontrolsthisregion
andthefightinghasntstopped?
EveniftheWestweretostoppressuringUkraineaboutthelocalelections,theMinskdealstillsuffersfromfatalflaws.For
example,it:
Callsforwithdrawalofallforeignarmedformations,butnevermentionsRussianforcesspecifically.SincetheKremlinlies
abouthavingnoforcesinUkraine,Russiacanarguethatthisclausedoesnotapplytoit
Lacksclarityonthesequencingofthemeasuresthatmustbemet,whichenablesPutintoargue,ashedidattheSt.Petersburg
EconomicForumonJune17,thattheonusforfulfillingMinskliesinKyiv,notMoscow
NeglectstomentionCrimeaatall.
FifteenmonthsislongenoughtoconcludethattheMinskdealisnotworkingtoendtheviolenceorresolvetheconflict,andnew
waysshouldbefoundtokeeptheEuropeansonboardwithsanctionsor,failingthat,tomoveaheadunilaterallywithadditional
USsanctions.ThatwouldrequirestrongerAmericanpresidentialleadership,however,andthatisunlikelyuntilnextJanuary,at
best.
DavidJ.KrameristheseniordirectorforhumanrightsanddemocracyattheMcCainInstituteforInternational
LeadershipinWashington,DC,andwasAssistantSecretaryofStateforDemocracy,HumanRightsandLaborinthe
GeorgeW.Bushadministration.
AtlanticCouncil
JUNE28,2016
NowIsNottheTimetoScraptheMinskAgreement
AReplytoDavidJ.Kramer
BYJOHNE.HERBST
EditorsNote:OnJune22,AmbassadorJohnHerbstandDavidJ.Kramerdebatedwhetherweshouldburythe
Minskagreement,thetroubledceasefireagreementinUkraine,atanAtlanticCouncileventinWashington,DC.
Theirremarkshavebeenadaptedfromthedebate.
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/now-is-not-the-time-to-scrap-the-minsk-agreement
UkrainesdiscussionofthewarwithRussiaoftenfocusesonthefailingsoftwodiplomaticinstruments:theBudapestMemorandum
andtheMinskagreements.Whilemuchcommentaryaboutthesedocumentsisintelligentandinsightful,thereisalittle-noticedbut
essentialconnectionbetweenthem.First,theinadequaciesofthesedocumentsreflectthepoliticalweaknessoftheWestern
powersthatsignedthem.Second,theMinskagreementsandthebroaderprocesstheygeneratedareanimportantpartofthe
WestsresponsetofulfillingitsBudapestcommitments.Correctlyunderstood,theMinskprocessisessentialtostoppingMoscow
intheDonbas.
Inthe1994BudapestMemorandum,UkraineagreedtogiveupitsnuclearweaponsinexchangeforassurancesfromRussia,the
UnitedKingdom,andtheUnitedStatestoconsultincaseofthreatstoitsterritorialintegrityandsovereignty.WhenRussiaannexed
CrimeainMarch2014,UkrainewassorelydisappointedtodiscoverthatBudapestMemorandumconsultationsproduceda
ratherweakWesternresponsesimplyanumberofsmallsanctions.EvenMoscowshybridwarintheDonbasproducedonly
limitedsanctions.OnlyaftertheJuly2015shoot-downoftheMalaysianairlinerbyaRussianmissiledidtheEUfollowthe
AmericanleadandimposepunishingsanctionsonMoscowsenergyandfinancialsectors.
TheMinskagreementshavealsoseverelydisappointedUkraine.ThefirstMinskceasefireinSeptember2014didpreventthe
destructionofUkrainianarmedforcesaroundthetownofIlovaisk,butitwasalsosupposedtoproduceanendtothefightingthat
nevermaterialized.BetweenthefirstandsecondMinskagreements,Ukrainedidnotenjoyadayofpeace:inthatperiod,
hundredsofUkrainiansoldiersdied,andMoscowseizedmoreUkrainianterritory.
Moscow'sJanuary2015offensivetotakethetownofDebaltsevespurredtheEUtoanewroundofdiplomacy,whichledtothe
secondceasefireinFebruary2015.However,thetermsoftheagreementwerenotablyworse.First,MinskIIgivestheauthorities
inthe"DonetskPeople'sRepublic"(DNR)andthe"LuhanskPeople'sRepublic"(LNR)therighttoretaintheirownarmedforces.
Second,itcallsforconstitutionalreforminUkrainethatwouldgrantautonomytotheDNRandLNRinambiguouslanguagethat
MoscowinterpretsasgivingthoseregionsavetooverUkrainesnationalsecuritypolicy.(UkraineandtheWestdonotsharethat
interpretation.)Third,itcallsforelectionsintheKremlin-dominatedareasbeforeUkraineregainscontrolofitsborderwithRussia.
Inshort,MoscowwasrewardedforitsdailyviolationsofMinskI.Insteadoffacingadditionalsanctionsforincreasingaggression,
itwasgrantedmorefavorableterms.AndeversinceMinskIIwassigned,fightinghasbeenongoing,andtheDNRandLNRhave
addedovertwohundredsquarekilometersofterritory.Andwhilethisishappening,theEUhaspressuredUkrainetopassan
electionslawfortheLNRandDNR.
Inaddition,MinskexcludestheUnitedStatesfromthediplomaticprocessdesignedtoendthewar.Soitisnotsurprisingthat
manyinUkrainebelievethatMinskisfatallyflawed,thatUkrainehasnoobligationtopassalocalelectionslaw,andthatUkraine
shouldwalkawayfromMinskanddemandanewframework.
Thatapproach,however,wouldbeaseriousmistake.Perhapshistoriansandcommentatorshavetheluxuryoffocusingtheir
attentionontheweaknessesofWesterndiplomacy,butUkraine'sleadershavenosuchoption.
Ukraine'sleadersneedtounderstandthelimitsontheirpartnersinEurope.GermanChancellorAngelaMerkelhasbeenthepillar
ofEUsanctionspolicy.MerkelhaskeptFrenchPresidentFrancoisHollandeandtherestoftheEUonboardwithsanctions.Her
continuedsuccess,however,cannotbetakenforgranted.TheDutchreferenduminAprilopposingtheEU'stradeagreementwith
Ukraine,andthevotesbytheFrenchNationalAssemblyinAprilandtheFrenchSenateinJuneonliftingthesanctionsonRussia,
alldemonstratethattheEUisnotinapositiontopursueastrongerpolicy.BritainsexitfromtheEUhasalsoweakenedthepro-
sanctionscampintheEU.
Fortunately,thesanctionspolicyoftheEUandtheUScoupledwiththegrowingmilitaryassistancecomingfromsomeWestern
countriesmaybesufficienttohelpUkraineultimatelywinintheeast.Betweenthedropinhydrocarbonpricesandsanctions,
MoscowsGNPdropped3.7percentin2015and1.4percentinthefirstthreemonthsof2016.AccordingtotheIMF,the
sanctionswereresponsiblefor1-1.5percentofthe2016decline.TheRussianstandardoflivingdropped9.5percentin2015and
alargedropisexpectedthisyear.AfterinsistingforwelloverayearthatWesternsanctionswerehavingnoimpact,Moscownow
acknowledgestheimpactandiscallingfortheirremoval.
TherearealsoindicationsthatMoscowunderstandsitsUkrainepolicyisfailing.SinceRussiasinterventioninSyria,Ukrainehas
ceasedtobetheprincipalstoryintheRussianmedia,andthisgivestheKremlinmoreflexibilityinmanagingthecrisis.Inaddition
totheMinsknegotiatingprocess,topKremlinaideVyacheslavSurkovhasbeenmeetingregularlywithUSAssistantSecretaryof
StateVictoriaNulandsinceJanuary.Reportedly,thosemeetingshaveavoidedmuchofthecantthatfillstheMinsknegotiationsand
haveinvolvedtheexchangeofseriousideasthatcouldcontributetoendingthewarintheDonbas.
TheObamaadministration,whichhadpreviouslydescribedtheKremlinswarinUkraineasaregionalcrisis,hasalsoshownan
increasedinterestinfindingasolution.USNationalSecurityAdvisorSusanRicesaidearlierthismonththatperhapsthisconflict
canberesolvedbeforetheendoftheObamaadministration.ThissuggeststhatseniorlevelsinWashingtonaregivingmorebacking
tothediplomaticeffortsoftheindefatigableNuland.
NoneofthismeansthatMoscowhasmadeanydecisionstostepback.ButtheypointtoaMinskprocesswhichisbetterthanthe
termsofthefirstMinskagreement:WesternsanctionsareholdingfirmWesternleadersstilldemandKremlinimplementationofits
MinskcommitmentsinexchangeforsanctionsreliefdomesticproblemsaregrowingforPutinandtheAmericanrolein
negotiationsisbecomingmoreprominent.
UkrainesleaderssurelyunderstandthattheyshouldnotupendthisfavorablemomentumbywalkingawayfromMinsk.They
understandtoothattokeepsanctionsinplacetheymustbeopentopassinganelectionslawfortheLNRandtheDNRthat
protectsUkrainesinterests.OnehopesthatthosepoliticiansnotdirectlyresponsibleforUkrainesforeignpolicyunderstandthis
aswell.
JohnE.HerbstisDirectoroftheDinuPatriciuEurasiaCenterattheAtlanticCouncil.HeservedasUSAmbassadorto
Ukrainefrom2003to2006.
[ODthoughts:AgreatdiscussionaboutMinskbytwogenuinesupportersofUkraineandanexamplewherethereare
compellingargumentstobothsidesofthedebate.Heresmytwohryvni,forwhatitsworth.Obviously,nobodyis
naveabouttheseriousshortcomingsofMinskoritslong-termprospects.AsDavidandIhavediscussedon
occasion,IleanmoretoJohnsarguments,perhapsstemmingfrommyownprofessionalexperienceswithcertainkey
Europeancountriesoverthedecadeswheremyexpectationsofthemonthesekindsofissuesareoftenratherlow.IfI
thought,asDavidrightlycallsfor,thatafterscrappingMinsk,WesternnationswouldmakecleartoRussiathat
sanctionswouldremaininplaceandevenbeincreasedovertime,IwouldbeinfavorofdoingawaywithMinsk
pronto!Alas,Isimplyhaveahardtimeseeingthathappen,atleastinthenear-term,givenpoliticalweaknessin
Europe.DumpingMinskwouldremovetheprimaryjustificationformaintainingsanctions,akeyperhapsthekey-
-sourceofleverageoverMoscowandevenotherwisereduceEUsupportforUkraine.Weakeningsanctionscould
emboldenPutininextremelydangerouswayswhilecontinuingthemmight,justmight,givesomehopefora
resolution.IagreewithDavidinnotputtingpressureonKyiv(oratleastnottoomuch),giventhatsomeofthe
decisionstheymightneedtotakearepoliticallydifficult,ifnotimpossible.Imnotsure,however,thatanelection
lawfallsintothatcategory.Afterall,MinskcallsforanyelectionsintheDonbastobeconsistentwithboth
UkrainianelectionlawandOSCEelectionstandards.ImveryskepticalastowhetherDonbaselectionscantake
placeunlessthereisaradicalchangeinstatusquo--eveninthehighlyunlikelyeventthatthesecuritysituation
weretostabilizetoallowforsuchelections.Fordemocraticelections,youneedanenvironmentwherethereisalevel
playingfieldforallpartiesandcandidates,andforthatyouneedbasicfreedomsofassociation,assembly,expression,
mediaandsemblanceofruleoflaw,whichsimplyisnotpossiblegiventhethuggish,criminalotamanyrunning
theso-calledDNRandLNR.IdoubtthattheOSCEwouldobserve,muchlessblesssuchanelection.So,giventhat,
whatstheharmdoneinpassingadecentelectionlawwhichwouldprovidefordemocraticelections,includingIDP
votingalaw,asJohnsays,thatprotectsUkrainesinterests--ifthathelpskeeptosomeofoursquishyEuropean
friendsonboardwithsanctionsandsupportforUkraine,and,dareIsay,evensomeatthehighestlevelsofourown
Administration.Inotherwords,whatstheharmdoneinUkraineshowingitselftobeasflexibleasitreasonably
canbewithoutdamagingitsinterests?Irealizethatmineisnotapopularviewamongsome(includingsomeRada
membersrepresentingseveralpartiesthatIhavemetwithoverthelastfewmonths),butIthinkitisimportantto
considertheachievable,andnotjusttheaspirational.Onelastpoint:Asregularreadersknow,Istronglybelievein
keepingtheheatontheRussiansandtheirseparatistsatrapsonalloftheirmultitudeongoingviolationsofMinsk.
Andweneedtokeepresolutelyrejectingtheabsurdfalseequivalencenarrativethatsuggeststhatbothsidesareto
blameequally.]
Subject:FW:USDIPLOMATBEATENUPBYFSBOUTSIDEUSEMBASSYINMOSCOW
To:"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
From:GlenHoward[mailto:howard@jamestown.org]
To:PaulGobleJonasBernsteimJohnBDunlopTraininblankIanBrzezinskiSENDERSWIMBUSHMatthewCzekajJonChickyTemuri
YakobashviliMamukaTsereteliMamukaKudavaVladimir,SocorAldenWahlstromClintonSmullyanJrJamesG.GidwitzWillemde
VogelMichelleVanCleaveMichaelWSRyanBrianWilliamsNickHerasMargaritaAssenovaZaurShiriyevNihatAlizcanSaban
KardasMatthewBryza
Subject:RE:USDIPLOMATBEATENUPBYFSBOUTSIDEUSEMBASSYINMOSCOW

Unbelievable.....
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/russian-fsb-guard-attacks-us-diplomat-outside-moscow-
embassy/2016/06/28/2c42c98c-3d7f-11e6-a66f-aa6c1883b6b1_story.html?wpisrc=nl_most-draw7&wpmm=1
--
Glen
ByJoshRoginJune29at7:01AM
IntheearlymorningofJune6,auniformedRussianFederalSecurityService(FSB)guard
stationedoutsidetheU.S.EmbassyinMoscowattackedandbeatupaU.S.diplomatwhowas
tryingtoenterthecompound,accordingtofourU.S.officialswhowerebriefedontheincident.
ThispreviouslyunreportedattackoccurredjuststepsfromtheentrancetotheU.S.Embassy
complex,whichislocatedinthePresnenskyDistrictinMoscowscitycenter.Afterbeingtackledby
theFSBguard,thediplomatsufferedabrokenshoulder,amongotherinjuries.Hewaseventually
abletoentertheembassyandwasthenflownoutofRussiatoreceiveurgentmedicalattention,
administrationofficialsconfirmedtome.HeremainsoutsideofRussia.
Theattackcausedadiplomaticepisodebehindthescenesthathasnotsurfaceduntilnow.The
StateDepartmentinWashingtoncalledinRussianAmbassadorSergeyI.Kislyaktocomplainabout
theincident,anadministrationofficialsaid.
Themotivefortheattackremainsunclear.OneU.S.officialtoldmethatthediplomatwasseeking
refugeintheembassycomplextoavoidbeingdetainedbytheRussianintelligenceservices.A
differentU.S.officialtoldmethediplomatmayhavebeenworkingasaspyinRussiaunderwhats
knownasdiplomaticcover,whichmeanshewaspretendingtobeaStateDepartmentemployee.
SpokesmenfortheboththeStateDepartmentandtheCIAdeclinedtocommentontheincidentor
whetherornotthediplomatwasinfactanundercoverU.S.spy.
Putin:Russiadoesn'twantanewColdWar
PlayVideo0:55
DuringaquestionandanswersessionattheSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,PresidentVladimirPutinsaidRussia
didnotwantanewColdwarwiththeWestanddidnotliketothinkitwasslippingintoone.(Reuters)
In2013,RussianintelligenceservicesarrestedU.S.diplomatRyanC.Fogle,whomtheyaccusedof
secretlyworkingfortheCIA.Fogle,whowasworkingasathirdsecretaryinthepoliticalsectionof
theU.S.EmbassyinMoscow,wasarrestedcarryingvariousdisguisesandothertoolsofspycraft.
RussiaaccusedhimoftryingtorecruitRussianintelligenceofficers.
AfterinterrogatingFogle,theRussiangovernmentreleasedhimtoU.S.officials,butnot
beforehumiliatinghimintheRussianmediaandchastisingtheU.S.governmentforspyinginside
Russia.FoglewasforcedtoleaveRussia.
IftheU.S.diplomatattackedonJune6wasnotaspy,U.S.officialshavenootherexplanationfor
whytheFSBguardwastryingtostophimfromenteringtheembassy.FSBguardsarestationed
outsidetheU.S.Embassyregularly,administrationofficialssaid.
Opinionsnewsletter AsIreportedthisweek,Russian
Thought-provokingopinionsandcommentary,inyourinboxdaily.harassmentofU.S.diplomatsinRussia
andseveralotherEuropeancountrieshas
Signup
increasedsignificantlysinceU.S.sanctions
wereleviedonRussianofficialsand
PresidentVladimirPutinsassociatesin2014.
OnTuesday,theRussianforeignministrysspokeswoman,MariaZakharova,respondeddirectlyto
mycolumnatapressconferenceandonTwitterandaccusedtheU.S.governmentofdeliberately
underminingbilateralties.
Diplomacyisbasedonreciprocity.ThemoretheUSdamagesrelations,theharderitwillbeforUS
diplomatstoworkinRussia,shesaid.
Eitherway,thefactthattheFSBiswillingtoattackaU.S.diplomatandbeathimuprightinfront
oftheAmericanEmbassyreflectsthattheRussiansecurityservicesarebecomingincreasingly
brash,saidEvelynFarkas,whoservedasdeputyassistantsecretaryofdefenseforRussia,Ukraine
andEurasiafortheObamaadministration.
Ifthisistrue,itsanotherexampleoftheRussiansecurityservicesdemonstratingawillingnessto
breaktaboos,shesaid.Thefactthattheyareusingthesebrutaltacticsagainstforeignersistaking
thingstoawholeotherlevel.
Readmoreaboutthistopic:
JoshRogin:RussiaisharassingU.S.diplomatsalloverEurope
From: BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>
Senttime: 06/30/201603:08:01AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Cc: BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>
Subject: Re:FriendsWithBenefits?Russian-ChineseRelationsAftertheUkraineCrisis-CarnegieMoscowCenter-CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace
DearBob,
Thankyouforthis.It'sallverytimely,giventhatIamfinalizingthefirstdraftofmyforthcomingmonographonSino-Russianrelations(LowyInstituteand
PenguinAustralia).
Gabuevisverygood,butisclearlylaboringunderconsiderable(andcontradictory)pressures.Sometimes,hetalksuptherelationship,butmoreoften
thannothelamentsitsinadequacies.There'sabitofbothinhislatestpiece!
Iwonderwhetherhewasunderpressuretopushtheline,sometimespromotedbyDmitriTrenin,thattheWestneedstobemoreflexibletowardRussia
inordertopreventitseastwarddrifttoChina.
Ihopeeverythingiswellwithyouandyours.
Warmregards,Bobo
OnThursday,30June2016,10:34,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://carnegie.ru/2016/06/29/friends-with-benefits-russian-chinese-relations-after-ukraine-crisis/j2m2
FriendsWithBenefits?Russian-ChineseRelations
AftertheUkraineCrisis
FacingsanctionsfromtheWestaftertheannexationofCrimea,RussiahasreorienteditseconomytowardChina.Inmakingthe
pivot,itsoughttobreakitsdiplomaticisolation,secureamarketforitsenergyresources,andgaingreateraccesstoChinese
creditandtechnology.Theresultsoftheshiftaremixed,butiftrendscontinue,MoscowislikelytodriftfurtherintoBeijings
embrace.Anasymmetricalinterdependenceisemerging,withglobalimplications.
AnIncreasinglyUnbalancedRelationship
RussiaseconomicoutreachtoChinapredatesitsannexationofCrimeaandtheimpositionofWesternsanctions,butit
hasintensifiedfollowingtheUkrainecrisis.

Intryingtoreorientitseconomyquickly,MoscowhaseasedinformalbarrierstoChineseinvestment.

TherewasasharpdeclineintradebetweenChinaandRussiain2015anddifficultiesinnegotiatingnewmegadeals.
Still,therapprochementhasacceleratedprojectsthathavebeenunderdiscussionfordecades,resultinginagreements
onanaturalgaspipelineandcross-borderinfrastructure,amongotherdeals.

ChinesefinancialinstitutionsarereluctanttoignoreWesternsanctions,butMoscowandBeijingaredevelopingparallel
financialinfrastructurethatwillbeimmunetosanctions.

Newdealsintherailwayandtelecommunicationssectorsmaysetimportantprecedentsforbilateralrelations.These
projectscouldreduceRussiastechnologicallinkswiththeWestandincreaseitsdependenceonChina.

TheRussian-Chineserelationshipisincreasinglyunequal,withRussiatheneedierpartner.Withoutviablealternatives,
Moscowmaybewillingtoaccepttheimbalance.
LessonsforWesternLeaders
RussiaandChinaarenotenteringintoananti-Westernalliance.BeijingdoesnotwanttoconfronttheWestoverissues
itseesasalowpriority,suchasUkraine.MoscowprefersnottobedraggedintogrowingU.S.-Chinarivalryorterritorial
disputesintheAsia-Pacific.

Still,MoscowsgrowingdependenceonChinaanditstendencytoseeconflictthroughananti-Americanlensisforcingit
tosupportBeijinginsomedisputesitwouldprefertoavoid.

Russiasmilitary-industrialcomplexisopeningupmoretotheChinesemarket.Thisshiftmayaffectthestrategicbalance
inTaiwan,theEastChinaSea,andtheSouthChinaSeaastheChinesemilitarygainsaccesstoadvancedequipment.

CentralAsiaisapotentialarenaforrivalrybetweenMoscowandBeijing.Attemptstocoordinatethecountriesregional
economicintegrationprojectshavebeenunsuccessful.YetMoscowhopesitcanserveasregionalsecurityprovider
whileChinapresidesovereconomicdevelopmentadeparturefromapreviouscollisioncourse.

MoscowandBeijingarelearningfromeachothersexperiencelimitingWesterninfluence,providingexamplesforother
authoritariancountries.
RussiaEmbracesChina:TurningFearsIntoHopes
WhenthecrisisinUkraineeruptedin2014,nooneintheKremlinwasexpectingaprolongedconfrontation.Butassoonas
sanctionswerementionedforthefirsttimeintheWest,theRussiangovernmentorganizedaseriesofbrainstormingsessions
toanalyzehowdifferentscenariosmighthurttheRussianeconomy.Theconclusionwasclear:RussiasAchillesheelwasits
near-totaldependenceonWesternmarketsforitshydrocarbonexports,capital,andtechnology.1Thehistoricalcasesof
sanctionsregimespresentedbyRussiananalystsatthesediscussions,rangingfromNorthKoreatoIran,suggestedthatin
ordertowithstandWesternpressureacountryneededastrongexternalpartner.2Theonlyobviouscandidatethatfitthebill
wasChinathelargesteconomythatdidnotplantoimposesanctionsonRussia.
Thiswasthecontextinwhich,inMay2014,theRussianleadershipembarkedonanewandmoreambitiouspivottoChina.The
strategicgoalwasnotonlytodeepenthepoliticalrelationshipbutalsotoreorienttheRussianeconomytowardtheEast.Itwas
hopedthatChinawouldbecomeamajorbuyerofSiberianhydrocarbons,ShanghaiandHongKongwouldbecomethenew
LondonandNewYorkforRussiancompaniesseekingcapital,andChineseinvestorswouldflocktobuyRussianassets,
providingbadlyneededcash,upgradingthecountrysaginginfrastructure,andsharingtechnology.3Putsimply,thenewpivot
wouldkeeptheRussianeconomyafloatandspurnewsourcesofgrowth.
Foritspart,ChinaneithersupportedRussiasactionsinUkrainenordirectlycriticizedthem.ButitwelcomedMoscowspolicyof
goingEast.TherupturebetweenRussiaandtheWestoverUkrainewasseenassomethingthatwouldhelpChinatosecurea
RussiamoreaccommodatingtoBeijingscommercialdemandsandmorewillingtogiveuponambitionsofdeepintegrationwith
theWestanightmarescenarioforChinesestrategists.
Withsomeexceptions,4thisnewapparentrapprochementwasgreetedwithconsiderableskepticismintheWest.5The
dominantviewinWesterncapitalswasthatrelationsbetweenMoscowandBeijingwouldalwaysremainanaxisof
convenience.6RelationswiththeWestandwiththeUnitedStatesinparticular,itwasargued,aremoreimportantforChina
thanitstiestoRussia,giventhatU.S.-ChinesetradevolumesweresixtimesgreaterthanRussian-Chinesetradeflowsin2014
andtentimesgreaterin2015.Moreimportantly,Westernanalystspredictedthatdeepmistrustbetweenthecountrieselites,
historicalterritorialdisputes,anunbalancedstructureoftrade,theChineseeconomicanddemographicthreattoSiberiaand
theFarEast,competitionforinfluenceinCentralAsia,andtheoverallgrowinginequalitybetweenthetwocountrieswould
precludeanymeaningfulpartnership.
TwoyearsafterMoscowbeganitsChinapivot,somedevelopmentsconfirmthisskepticalview.Westerncommentarieshave
oftenadoptedamockingtoneabouttheexaggeratedhopesthatMoscowhasplacedonBeijing.Mr.Putinmayhopethatsuch
arrangements[withChina]canhelpshieldRussiafromwesternsanctions.Yet,inhisheartofhearts,hemustknowthatBeijing
isnotgoingtodoMoscowanyfavours,arguedaMay2015editorialintheFinancialTimes.7ThomasS.EderandMikko
HuotarifromtheBerlin-basedMercatorInstituteforChinaStudieswroteinForeignAffairsthat
WhatonefindstimeandagainwithSinoRussiancooperationareloftyannouncementsthatfailtocorrespondwiththereality
ofalessthanrobustrelationship.Asaresult,thecurrentstateofSinoRussianrelationsdo[sic]littletoprovideMoscowwith
anygeopoliticalleverageagainstEurope.Infact,itistheotherwayaround.Europehasbeenmoresuccessfulatplayingthe
diversificationgame,aswellasattractinginvestmentsandincreasingtradewithChina.8
Yet,thenewRussian-Chineserapprochementmaybemoreseriousthanthislineofreasoningsuggests.Inthewakeofthe
Ukrainecrisis,theRussianleadershiptookafreshlookatmanyissuesthathadbeenblockingcooperationwithBeijingfor
years.Thisprocessresultedintheremovalofthreekeyinformalbarriers.First,Moscowdecidedithadbeentooreticentabout
sellingadvancedweaponrytoChina.Second,MoscowchosetoreviewadefactobanonChineseparticipationinlarge
infrastructureandnatural-resourceprojects.Third,theKremlinreassesseditsrelationshipwithChinainCentralAsia,which
hadhithertobeendefinedaslargelycompetitivewithverylimitedopportunitiesforcollaboration.
ThenewapproachthattheKremlinadoptedyieldedfewsuccessesin2014and2015.Butthedealsconcludedorunder
discussionmaypresagemoremeaningfuldevelopmentsinthefuture,puttingRussiaonapathwhereitendsupacceptingthe
roleofajuniorpartnerinanincreasinglyasymmetricalrelationship.Moscowmayendupprovidingcrucialresourcesthat
Beijingneeds(suchasmilitarytechnology,naturalresources,andaccesstonewmarkets)toboostthelattersambitiontobe
thenextglobalsuperpowerinexchangeforaneconomicandfinanciallifeline.
OneofthecentralfactorsthatispropellingthenewRussian-Chineserelationshipisthepersonalconnectionbetweenthetwo
countriesleaders,VladimirPutinandXiJinping.
BorisYeltsinsrelationshipwithhisChinesecounterpart,JiangZemin,wasgood.TheyspokeinRussian,whichfacilitateddirect
conversation,buttheRussianpresidentnevercalledhisChinesecolleaguefriend,asheaddressedformerU.S.presidentBill
ClintonandformerJapaneseprimeministerRyutaroHashimoto.PutinsexperiencewithJiangwasfruitfulbutbrief.Both
leadersmanagedtosignthe2001FriendshipTreaty,whichpavedthewayforthesettlementofRussian-Chineseborder
disputes.JiangssuccessorHuJintaowastenyearsolderthanPutinandunemotional.VariousinterlocutorsdescribeHuas
wearingthesameinscrutablefaceinallsituations.
Xihasbeenverydifferentfrombothhispredecessors.JustsixmonthsyoungerthanPutin,Xicouldbedescribedasthe
Russianpresidentssoulmateastrongleaderwithavisionofhiscountrybecomingagreatpoweragain.Xisremarksin
Mexicoin2009aboutsomeforeignerswithfullbelliesandnothingbettertodo[than]engageinfinger-pointingatusdidnot
gounnoticedinMoscow.9ExtendedprofilesofhimbearalotofsimilaritiestowhatispubliclyknownaboutPutin.10Thetwo
menhavedevelopeddeeppersonaltiesdespitethelanguagebarrier,accordingtothosewhohaveobservedtherelationship
upclose.
ThefirstpersonalmeetingbetweenthetwotookplaceinMarch2010inMoscow,whenPutinwasprimeministerandXiwasvice
presidentofthePeoplesRepublicofChina(PRC).11ButitwasonOctober7,2013,thattherelationshipbecametruly
personal.ThetwoleadersmetonthesidelinesoftheAsia-PacificEconomicCooperation(APEC)summitinBaliitwasPutins
birthdayandthelastmeetingofthedayforbothleaders.Negotiationsturnedintoaprivatebirthdaypartywithveryfewpeople
presentandmanycelebratorytoasts,whichhelpedcementthebondbetweenthem.GiventheimportancePutinattachesto
personaldiplomacy,thisnewlevelofcontactwiththeChineseleaderwasanimportantfactorbehindMoscowschanged
approach.
In2014,followinginternaldeliberations,theKremlindecidedtoreachouttoChinatofosteraneconomicpartnershipinamore
directfashionthanbefore.InformalpoliticalbarrierslimitingChineseinvestmentinRussiawereeased.AttheKrasnoyarsk
EconomicForuminFebruary2015,DeputyPrimeMinisterArkadyDvorkovichannouncedthatChinesecompanieswouldnow
bewelcometobuyassetsinthenatural-resourcesector.Theyalsowerepermittedtobidoninfrastructurecontractsin
sensitiveindustrieslikeroadsandrailways,whichforadecadehadbeencarefullyprotectedfromcompetitionbypowerful
Russianlobbies.ChinesefinancialinstitutionswereinformallyencouragedtoexpandtheirpresenceintheRussianmarkettofill
agapvacatedbyWesternfirms.High-levelRussianofficialsdeliveredthesemessagesthroughaseriesofunannouncedvisits
toAsianfinancialcapitals,whiletheywereexploringopportunitiesforRussiandebtandequitylistings.12
MoscowalsosignificantlyupgradeditsmechanismsforcommunicatingwithBeijing.WhileWashingtonhasmaintainedvarious
channelsofcorrespondencewithChineseelitesandpoliticalleadersformanyyears,Russiaslinkshadremainedprimitive.
Nowinadditiontotheexistingintergovernmentalcommissionforpreparingprimeministersmeetings(co-chairedbyRussian
DeputyPrimeMinisterDmitriRogozinandChineseVicePremierWangYang)andanalready-establishedstrategicdialogueon
energyissues(co-chairedbyDeputyPrimeMinisterDvorkovichandChinashighest-rankingvicepremier,ZhangGaoli),anew
intergovernmentalcommissionwasformed.Thenewcommissionisco-chairedbyRussianFirstDeputyPrimeMinisterIgor
Shuvalov,Putinspowerfulpointmanforeconomictroubleshooting,andZhang,whoisalsooneofsevenmembersofthe
ChineseCommunistPartys(CCP)powerfulPolitburoStandingCommittee.Shuvalovscommissionhasbecomethekey
institutionfornegotiatinglarge-scalebilateralprojects.Inadditiontothesebodies,PutinappointedhislongtimefriendGennady
TimchenkotochairtheRussian-ChineseBusinessCouncil.13TimchenkoranksfifthontheForbeslistofwealthiestRussian
citizens,14andwasaddedtotheU.S.TreasuryDepartmentsanctionslistaftertheannexationofCrimea.Byputtinginplacea
capablebureaucratandapersonalfriendwithdirectaccesstotheRussianleaderhimself,Putinhasmovedthebilateral
businessagendatoanewlevel.
Asidefromthesepragmaticbusinessmatters,anattemptbytheKremlintoforgeemotionalbondswithChineseelitesonthe
basisofacommonworldoutlookconstitutedakindofgrouppsychotherapyfortheRussianleadershipafterthetraumaofthe
Ukrainecrisis.AnuneasysenseofisolationandfeelingsofrageaboutwhatwasviewedasbetrayalbytheWestwascombined
withthesenseofbelongingtoaresurgentgreatpoweraftertheincorporationofCrimeaintoRussia,andthiscreatedastrong
needforinternationalsoulmates.15PressurefromtheWest,itwasbelieved,wouldbringRussianandChineseelitesmuch
closertogetherthanbefore.Anation-buildingnarrativecenteredonprideandtherevivalofthegloriouspasthasbeenstrong
inChinasinceapatrioticeducationcampaignwaslaunchedinthe1990s.16ThisnationalstorybecamedominantinChina
afterXiaccededtopowerandpromotedhisambiguousChinaDreamconcept.Asimilarnarrativebecameincreasingly
importantintheRussiancontext,particularlyafterthetakeoverofCrimea.17
Bothregimeshaveinvestedalotincommemoratinghistoricevents,especiallythevictoryinWorldWarII.FormodernRussia,
thevictoryinwhatitcallstheGreatPatrioticWarformsthemoralfoundationofmanyRussiansidentity.FortheCCP,memories
ofthewaragainstJapan,itsenormoushumancost,andtheroleoftheCommunistsinthenationalresistancestillformoneof
thepillarsofthepartyslegitimacy.AttemptstoquestionordownplaytheroleofeithercountryduringWorldWarIIareviewedin
MoscowandBeijingasattacksontheirprestigeandonthecoreideologicalfoundationsoftheregimes.18Butthispatriotismis
morethanjustcold-bloodedcalculation:ithasdeeprootsinthegenuinepersonalemotionsoftheleaders.Afterall,Xisfather,
XiZhongxun(19132002),tookpartinthewaragainstJapan,andPutinsfather,VladimirSpiridonovichPutin(19111999),
foughtinthewaragainstGermany.
ItthereforecameasnosurprisewhenXiJinpingwastheguestofhonoratthe2015VictoryDayparadeinMoscow,anevent
boycottedbyU.S.PresidentBarackObamaandotherWesternleaders.Putinreturnedthefavorandwastheguestofhonor
duringthecelebrationsinBeijingonSeptember3,2015,thefirstparadeinPRChistorytocommemoratethevictoryover
Japan.ThedecisionofWesternleaderstoskipboththeseimportanteventsinprotestofRussiasannexationofCrimeaand
growingChineseassertivenessintheSouthChinaSeawasperceivedinMoscowandBeijingasacoordinatedplottodeny
bothcountriestheirrightfulplaceinhistory.
Throughout2014and2015,attemptsweremadetobringbothsocietiesclosertogetherandtoovercomelingeringmistrust
throughthecarefuluseofbothgovernmentpropagandaandstate-controlledmedia.Since2006,Russianstate-runtelevision
channelshaveobservedaninformalbanonnegativecoverageofChina.ThereisgrowingevidencethatXihasauthorizedthe
samepolicyvis--visRussia.TheCCPPropagandaDepartmenttellseditorsatChinesestate-controllednewsagencieslike
XinhuaandtelevisionchannelslikeChinaCentralTelevision(CCTV)tobecarefulinhowtheycoverRussiaingeneralandto
avoidcriticizingPutinpersonally.ThisstancewasevidentduringthecoverageofthePanamaPapersscandal,whenmainland
ChinesemediaavoidedmentioningbothChineseandRussianleadersthatwereimplicated.Searchresultswerealsoerased
fromWeibo,Chinasmostpopularmicrobloggingplatform.
Theseeffortshaveyieldedresults,atleastinRussia.AccordingtopollsconductedbytheindependentLevadaCenter,19
RussianspositiveattitudestowardChinapeakedinMay2014,with77percentofrespondentsviewingChinapositivelyand
only15percentseeingitinanegativelight(seefigure1).Thisisastarkcontrastnotonlytothefiguresoftwodecadesago
(48percentpositiveand21percentnegative,respectively,inMarch1995)butalsotothefiguresfromjustayearbeforethe
Ukrainecrisis.InNovember2013,only55percentofrespondentsviewedChinapositivelyand31percentsawitnegatively.
Thespeedandintensityofthesemoodswingsdemonstratetheconsiderableinfluenceofmassmediaandtheknock-onimpact
ofaverageRussiansangertowardmajorWesternpowersasaresultoftheUkrainecrisis.SomeWesterncommentatorscite
conventionalwisdomthataverageRussiansharbornegativefeelingstowardChina,20butempiricalevidencethatsupports
suchassertionsishardtocomeby.Russianeliteslong-standingcautiousattitudestowardChinaareaseparatematter,but
thismind-sethasundergonesignificantchangesasadirectresultoftheUkrainecrisis.
ChinasRussiaGambit:AnyTakers?
Beijingspre-2014RussiapolicywasmadesignificantlymorecomplicatedbytheUkrainecrisis.PolicydebatesinBeijingabout
thecrisis,Russiaseastwarddrift,andthedramaticchangesintheglobalstrategicenvironmentcreatedbythese
developmentsunfoldedquickly,astheChineseleadershipwatchedthesuddendepartureofUkrainesthenpresidentViktor
Yanukovych,andthenPutinsboldstepofannexingCrimeaoutright.Theseevents,accordingtoChineseforeignpolicyexperts
advisingthecountrystopofficialsinZhongnanhai,caughtChinasleadersoffguardjustastheydidWesternleaders.The
majorchallengeforBeijingintheinitialstageofthecrisiswastocarefullynavigateasensitiveissue,whichinvolvedmanyof
Chinasimportantpoliticalandeconomicpartners,eventhoughitdidnotaffectChinadirectly.
ThepublicstancethatBeijingtookwaspredictableenough.TheChineseMinistryofForeignAffairsstucktoitsusualmantra
aboutrespectforinternationallawandresolvingtheconflictbypeacefulmeans.Yanukovychsabruptdepartureafter
demonstrationsontheMaidanturnedviolentalarmedBeijing,stirringupChinesesuspicionsaboutU.S.involvementinsupport
ofcolorrevolutionsaroundtheworld.RussiasaggressiveresponsetowhatwasviewedasWesternintrusiongarnered
sympathyamongsomeChineseelites.EarlycommentsbyaChineseMinistryofForeignAffairsspokesperson,HongLei,
followingthetopplingofYanukovych,reflectedthispointofview.21
AsMoscowlatermovedtoannexCrimea,thesituationbecamedecidedlymorecomplicatedforBeijing.Chinahasanegative
viewoftheveryideaofoutsideforcessupportingseparatismonethnicgroundsinlightoflingeringethnictensionsinthe
countryswesternregionsofTibetandXinjiangnottomentiontheTaiwanissue.Chinaspropagandadepartmentissueda
warningtodomesticmediathattheymaynotconnectthe...[Crimeaissue]toourowncountrysissueswithTaiwan,Tibet,or
Xinjiang.22BeijingsstanceonUkraineduringthisperiodamountedtocarefulmaneuveringandaconcertedeffortnottotake
sidesintheconflict.ChinaabstainedfromvotingonaWestern-backedUNSecurityCouncilresolutionthatcondemnedthe
Crimeareferendum,supportedUkrainesterritorialintegrity,andcalledforthenon-useofforce.23Atthesametime,Chinese
officialswerecarefultoavoiddirectcriticismofRussiawhileconsistentlycondemningtheWestssanctionspolicy.
InternaldiscussionsontheconsequencesforChinaofRussiasrupturewiththeWestweremoreintense,accordingtoopen-
sourceinformationandconversationswithChineseofficialsandexperts.ThedominantviewintheChineseleadershipwasthat
theUkrainecrisispresentedbothchallengesandopportunities.ChineseleadersweresurprisedbythedegreeoftheKremlins
unpredictability.ThedecisiontoannexCrimeaandtodirectlychallengetheU.S.-ledinternationalorderandtopayahuge
economicpricefordoingsowas,inBeijingsview,irrationalandagainstRussiaslong-terminterests.ConcernsthatRussia
wasworryinglyunpredictablewerelaterconfirmedbyMoscowsdirectinvolvementinSyriaandtherapidescalationoftensions
withTurkey,neitherofwhichChineseexpertsanticipated.AnotherriskwasthatthetensionsbetweenRussiaandtheWest
wouldescalateandputgreaterpressureonChinatotakesides.
However,itwastheopportunitiessideoftheledgerthatwasreportedlyhighlightedduringtheCCPsForeignAffairsLeading
SmallGroupmeetingsinApril2014.IsolatedfromtheWest,RussiawasexpectedtoreachouttoBeijingandbecomemore
eagertoopenupitseconomytoChinesecompanies.Also,itwashopedthatWashingtonspreoccupationwiththeRussia
challengewouldshiftU.S.attentionawayfromitsownpivottoAsiaandgiveBeijingadditionalbreathingroom.Thisviewwas
particularlystronginthemilitary,ascouldbeseenfrompubliccommentsbyPeoplesLiberationArmy(PLA)Major-General
WangHaiyun,aformerdefenseattachinMoscow.24InfluentialscholarslikeYanXuetongofTsinghuaUniversity,retired
generalslikeWang,andevenretiredseniordiplomatspubliclycalledontheChineseleadershiptousethesituationtoforgea
closerquasi-alliancewithMoscow.25Wang,oneofthemostvocaladvocatesofacloserpartnership,calledforthetwo
countriestopooltheireconomicandforeignpolicyresourcesandtakeadvantageoftheirinherentcomplementarity.Russiais
amasterinboxing,whileChinaisskilledintaichi,hewroteinaChinese-languageop-edfortheGlobalTimes.26
Thetopleadershipformulatedamorecautiousposition.AccordingtoseveralChineseinterlocutors,beforePutinsvisitto
ShanghaiinMay2014,XigavepersonalinstructionstokeymembersoftheStateCouncilandthetopmanagersofkeystate-
ownedenterprises(SOEs).HismainmessagewasthatcorporateplayersshouldactivelyseeknewopportunitiesinRussiabut
avoidovertlyexploitingRussiasdifficultsituationorseekingone-sideddealsatknockdownprices.InBeijingsview,the
oversizedappetitesandaggressivenessofChineseinvestorscouldcontributetoundesirabletensionsinthefutureand
eventuallyencourageRussiatomakeanotherU-turninordertomendrelationswiththeWest.Atthesametime,SOEswere
toldthattheyshouldnotengageinprojectsthatmadenoeconomicsense.
ThiscautionaryadvicefromZhongnanhaicamejustasthelargestChineseSOEswerebeginningtofeeltheaftermathofthree
simultaneousshocks.ChinasongoinganticorruptioncampaignwhichbeganasaninvestigationintoZhouYongkang,a
formermemberofthePolitburoStandingCommitteeandChinasenergyczareventuallywipedoutmanyofthetopmanagers
ofleadingenergycompanies.Theirreplacementsneededtimetocatchuponthedetailsofwhathadalreadybeendiscussed
withtheirRussiancounterparts.Theanticorruptioncampaignsooneliminatedanyincentivesforproactiveinitiativeonthepart
ofmanagersandbureaucratsintimesofbigpurges,passivityisobviouslythesafeststrategy.New,stricterrequirementsfor
SOEefficiency,establishedattheCCPCentralCommitteesThirdPlenummeetinginNovember2013,presentedanadditional
obstacletogreaterinvolvementinRussia.TheslowdownoftheChineseeconomyfurthercomplicatedmatters.Thescaleof
ChinaseconomicchallengeswasnotwidelyapparentduringtheinitialstageofRussiaspivottoAsiainmid-2014.Yetwithina
fewmonths,theslackeningdemandfornaturalresourcesandsharppricedeclinesinmajorglobalcommoditiesmarketspulled
therugoutfromunderpotentialprojects,includingintheenergysector,whichhistoricallyhasbeenthemostcrucialspherefor
bilateraleconomiccooperation.27
FuelingtheDragon
EnergyformsthebackboneofRussian-Chinesetrade,butattemptstoradicallyincreasethevolumeofenergytradebetween
thetwocountriesoverthepasttwoyearshavehadmixedresults.Energyexports,ofcourse,areofvitalimportancefor
sustainingPutinsregimeandRussiasoveralleconomicprospects.Directandindirectearningsfromhydrocarbonsaccountfor
upwardof70percentofRussiasbudgetrevenue,accordingtosomeestimates.28Chinabecameanetimporterofoilin1994,
andthecountryhasworkedassiduouslytosecureaccesstonewenergysourcestopoweritseconomicgrowth,preferringto
dosothroughland-basedpipelines.29Priortotheeconomicslowdown,accesstoRussiannaturalgasbecameincreasingly
importantamidprojectionsofincreasedChinesedomesticdemand,attemptstoreducedependenceoncoal,andmounting
politicalconcernsaboutpollutioninbigcitiesaswellasotherilleffectsofChinasrapidmodernization.
Gas
Inthegassector,therearetentativesignsofprogress,butthesituationisstillfarfromrosy.Thetwosidesmanagedtosigna
long-awaitedgasdealduringPutinsvisittoShanghaiinMay2014.Thegaswillbedeliveredfromtwoas-yetundeveloped
fieldsinEasternSiberia,KovyktaandChayanda,viathenewPowerofSiberia(orSilaSibiri)pipeline,whichwillpump38billion
cubicmetersofgasannuallyuntil2030.WhilethepartiesdidnotdisclosethepriceatwhichRussiawillbesellingthisgas,the
reportedtotalvalueofthecontractwas$400billion.Atthetimethedealwassigned,thepriceofoilwasover$109perbarrel.
TodaythepricefortheBrentcrudeoilbenchmarkislessthanhalfthat,whichmattersgreatlygiventheuseofoil-indexpricing
inthecontract.AlexeyMiller,thechiefexecutiveofficer(CEO)ofthemajorRussiannatural-gasfirmGazprom,expressedhis
pleasurewiththedeal,declaringattheSeptember2014SochiInternationalInvestmentForumthatinjustonedayour
esteemedChinesepartnerscamenearGermany,ourmajorgasconsumer.30
Twoyearslater,thisprojectisfacingmajorchallenges.TheChinesesidehasrefusedtoprovideaplanned$25billionloan
neededforpipelineconstruction,andRussianofficialshavecomplainedthattheconditionsonofferfromBeijingrequiringthe
participationofChinesecompaniesintheconstructionphaseareunacceptable.31SeveralGazpromtendersforthepipeline
werecanceledin2015attherequestofRussiasFederalAntimonopolyService.32Moreimportantly,thosefamiliarwith
GazpromsfinancingmodelsforthePowerofSiberiapipelinesaythattheprojectmayremainunprofitableiftheoilpricedoes
notincreasesignificantlyinthenextfifteenyears33thepipelinecouldbeusedforanothercontractafter2030,allowing
Gazpromtoactuallyturnaprofit.TheSovietUnionfollowedthesamelogicin1970whenitsignedagas-for-pipesagreement
withWestGermany.Thefirstcontractwasusedtofinancetheconstructionofexpensiveinfrastructure,whichallowedthe
SovietUniontoearnhardcurrencylateron,aftertheconstructioncostshadbeenfullypaidoff.34
Allthesame,officialsonbothsidesremainconfidentthatthepipelinewillbebuilt,thoughperhapswithdelays.Construction
hasbegunonbothRussianandChineseterritory.35ThefactthatthemaincontractorsontheRussiansideincludecompanies
ownedbyGennadyTimchenko(Stroytransgaz)andArkadyRotenberg(Stroygazmontazh),membersofPutinsinnercircle,has
furtherboostedconfidenceintheproject.36AfterGazpromabandoneditsmassiveSouthStreamandTurkishStreamprojects
inEurope,freed-upcashflowscouldbedivertedtothePowerofSiberiapipeline,whichwillreceiveactivegovernmentsupport
intheformoftaxexemptionsandotherincentives.However,whilesomeChinesesourcesarecertainthatthepipelinewill
eventuallybecommissioned,thereisstillnoclarityonthematteroftheChineseloan.IfcreditisneededandChinacontinues
todemandtheinvolvementofitsconstructioncompanies,itispossiblethatRotenbergsandTimchenkosfirmsmayultimately
beforcedtoformconsortiumswithChinesecompanies.37
Fornow,prospectsforotherGazpromprojectstargetedattheChinesemarketremainbleak.Moscowofferedtobuildapipeline
acrosstheAltaiMountainstoXinjiang(theso-calledWesternRouteorthePowerofSiberiaIIpipeline),whichwouldhavea
capacityof30billioncubicmetersofgasperyear.UnlikethefirstPowerofSiberia,thispipelinecouldbebuiltonexisting
infrastructure,requiringlessconstructionwork,andwouldallowGazpromtopumpgastoChinafromexistingfieldsinWestern
Siberia.MoscowseekstopititsWesternandEasterncustomersagainsteachotherwhilesupplyinggasfromthesamefieldsto
bothsides.Followingyearsofnegotiations,adetailedframeworkagreementwassignedduringXisMay2015visitto
Moscow,38butacommercialcontractbetweenGazpromandtheChinaNationalPetroleumCorporation(CNPC)settingaprice
fortheprojectsgasdoesnotappeartobeimminent.
Themainreasonforthedelayisadisagreementovertheprice:RussiaandChinaareusingdifferentbenchmarks.Gazpromis
basingitsdesiredpriceonitsexistingcontractswithGermanyorpossiblythePowerofSiberiapriceitsettledonwithChina.But
fortheCNPC,thepreferredbenchmarkisfarcheaperTurkmengaspumpedintoXinjiangthroughapipelinecommissionedin
2010.RussiangaswouldrequireexpensiveinfrastructuretocarryitfromanentrypointinXinjiangtomajorconsumptionhubs
inChinaseasternprovinces.Giventheabundanceofimportedliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)andthescaling-backofprojected
demandforimportedgasduetotheeconomicslowdownandmoreefficientcoalusebyanewgenerationofChinesepower
plants,thewesternroutenowappearstobeanonstarter,asdoGazpromsplanstobuildathirdpipelineforSakhalingasto
ChinaviaVladivostok.AlthoughthecompanysignedamemorandumofunderstandingwiththeCNPC,andan8-billion-cubic-
meterpipelinebetweenSakhalinandVladivostok,whichwasbuiltbeforethe2012APECsummit,isalreadyoperational,there
arelingeringproblemswiththeresourcebase.39
Oil
TheRussiansectorthatmadethemostsignificantgainsintheChinesemarketin2014and2015wasoil,despitethecollapse
inprices.Thefoundationsforapartnershipwereestablishedin2005,whenRussiasstate-ownedRosneftbegansupplyingoil
toChinaviarailwaytoservicecrucialChineseloans,whichhadenabledthefirmtobuyYuganskneftegaz,akeypartofanother
Russianoilcompany,Yukos,whichwasnationalizedfollowingthejailingoffallenoligarchMikhailKhodorkovsky.(Western
bankshadrefusedtoprovideloanstocoverthetransactionamidfearsthatYukossshareholderswouldusethecourtsto
presstheirclaimtotheirformerassets.)
The2009pipelinedealpavedthewayforamassiveincreaseinRussianoilexportstoChina,despitepricedisputesbetween
RosneftandtheCNPC,whichresultedina$3billionlossinrevenuefortheRussiancompany.Moreover,in2013,IgorSechin,
thepowerfulchairofRosneftandacloseallyofPresidentPutin,agreedtoaccept$60billioninloansfromChinesecompanies
aspartofwhatwastermedaprepaymentschemebackedbyfutureoildeliveries.ThemoneywasthenusedforRosnefts
domesticexpansion,includingitslandmarkpurchaseofRussiasthirdlargestproducer,TNK-BP,in2013.Now,withoilprices50
percentbelow2013levels,Rosneftisstrugglingfinanciallytocontendwiththesechallengingnewrealitiesevenasitfulfillsits
obligationsanddeliversthepromisedoiltotheChinese.InadditiontoincreasingthecapacityoftheSkovorodino-Mohe
pipeline,RosnefthasbegunsellingoiloutoftheKozminoportonthePacificCoastwith60percentofitnowgoingtoChina40
aswellasthroughKazakhstan,41whichhasincreasedRussiasshareofChineseoilimports(seefigures2and3).Atvarious
pointsin2015and2016,RussiaactuallysurpassedSaudiArabiaasChinasleadsupplier.42
Increaseddeliveriesnotwithstanding,theRussianoilindustrywasdealtahugeblowwhenoilpricesplummetedin2015.The
collapsewasimmediatelyreflectedintheoveralltradevolumebetweenChinaandRussiajustasthesurgeinglobaloilprices
inthe2000splayedasignificantroleinarapidtradeexpansion.Between2003and2012,tradebetweenthetwocountries
grewatanaverageof26.4percentperyear.In2011,thenpresidentsDmitryMedvedevandHuJintaoannouncedtheirgoals
ofachieving$100billioninbilateraltradeby2015and$200billionby2020.Initially,thesetargetsseemedattainable.In2014,
tradegrewby6.8percent,reachingatotalof$95.3billion,butin2015itcollapsedby28.6percent,totalingjust$68billion.
RussiadroppedfrombeingChinasninth-largesttradepartnerin2014tosixteenthplacein2015.Thedeclinewasnot
attributedsolelytothedropincommoditypricesthedropintradewithChinasothercommoditysuppliers,suchasAustralia
andBrazil,wasnotnearlyassteep.43ThekeyfactorappearstohavebeentheeconomicdeclineinRussiathatsameyear,as
GDPdecreasedby3.4percent,andthesubsequentlowpurchasingpowerofRussiancompaniesandhouseholdsseenin
thesharpdropinRussianimportsfromChina.TheonlysilverliningforRussiawastheeffectivedisappearanceofan
imbalancebetweenitsexportstoandimportsfromChina(seefigure4).
Theplungeinoilpricesin2015alsocreatednewobstaclesforcooperationoninvestmentprojects.RosneftofferedtheCNPC
a10percentstakeinitsflagshipoilfield,Vankor,themajorresourcebasefortheEasternSiberiaPacificOcean(ESPO)
pipeline.InNovember2014,theRussianMinisterofEnergyAlexanderNovaksuggestedthatRosneftmightacceptpaymentfor
thestakeinChineserenminbi.44Meanwhile,PutintoldtheTASSnewsagencythatRussiawasreadytoswitchtradeinVankor
oilfromU.S.dollarstonationalcurrencies.45However,theRussiansappearedtohaveunrealisticexpectationsaboutthe
potentialpricefortheminoritystakeinVankor,andtheChineseeventuallysuspendednegotiations.TheOilandNaturalGas
CorporationLimited,anIndiancompany,isasofmid-2016intheprocessofacquiringthestakeinVankor,provokingadditional
dissatisfactionfromBeijing.ChineseinvestorshavealsoexpressedinterestinstakesinotherRussianoilcompanies,according
toRussianFinanceMinisterAntonSiluanov.46TherehavebeenunconfirmedsuggestionsinChineseanalyticalcirclesthat
RussiamightultimatelysellalargestakeinRosnefttoaChineseoilcompanyorfinancialinstitutionforasymbolicprice,and
thatsuchapurchasemightprovideRosneftwithahelpfulwrite-downofitsdebtundertheprepaymentagreementandother
loanarrangements.TheRussiangovernmentcurrentlyisdiscussingthesaleofa19.7percentstakeinRosnefttovarious
foreigninvestors,includingthepossibilitythattheCNPCmaypurchase7percentofit.AccordingtoCNPCFirstVicePresident
WangZhongcai,thecompanyisactivelylookingintothedealandhasformedastudygrouptoexploretheopportunity.47
Thoughthepracticesarestillintheirinfancy,theuseofChinesetechnologyinoffshoredrillingandrenminbi-denominatedoil
contractsrepresenttwoimportantrecentdevelopmentsintheoilsector.ThefirstexperimentinthisareawasRosnefts
September2015contractwithChinaOilfieldServicesLimited,asubsidiaryoftheChinaNationalOffshoreOilCompany,
involvingthedrillingoftwooilwellsintheSeaofOkhotsk.48Atthedrillingsite,theseahasadepthofonly150meters(around
500feet),whichmeansitdoesnotqualifyasdeep-seadrillingundertheprovisionsofU.S.-andEU-ledsanctions.Asmany
internationaloil-servicecompanieshavebecomecautiousaboutRussianprojectsintheareascoveredbysanctions,the
introductionofadvancedChinesetechnologiescouldincreaseRussianoilcompaniesrelianceonChinaintheoil-service
sector,whichisalreadydominatedbyChineseproducersinsomesubsectorssuchasdrillingplatforms.Thedependenceon
China,however,isexpectedtoremainlimited,giventhattheRussianoil-serviceindustryisdominatedbylocalchampionslike
EurasiaDrillingandthesubsidiariesofmajorinternationalenergyfirms.Forthetimebeing,Chineseservicecompaniesclearly
cannotmatchthetechnologiesorcapabilitiesofmajorglobaloilcompaniesorleadingoil-servicefirmssuchasHalliburtonand
Schlumberger.
Thesecond,morepromising,experimentwaslaunchedbyGazprom-Neft,Gazpromsoilsubsidiary,whichannouncedthatitwill
selloilfromtheESPOpipelinetoChinesecustomersforrenminbi.49Despitethehypedclaimthatthistransactionwill
underminetheglobaldominanceofdollar-basedtransactions,thepricingofoilisstilltiedtothedollar-denominatedBrent
benchmark.AccordingtointerviewswithmanagersofRussianoilcompanies,thelogicbehindthismoveisthattheuseof
renminbitopurchaseChineseequipmentwillpreventconversionlossesandhedgeagainstcurrencyrisks,thussaving
Russiansabout5to7percentofthecontractprice,aswellasmovepaymentsoutoftheorbitoftheU.S.bankingsystem.If
thisschemebecomeswidespread,itcouldhelpimmunizetheRussian-Chineseoiltradeagainstrisksassociatedwithpossible
futureWesternsanctions.
AnyMarketforaBear?
AcentralgoalofMoscowspivottoChinawasgreateraccesstoChinesecredit.Hopesthatthisobjectivewouldbeobtained
werefueledbyBeijingscriticalstancetowardtheU.S.-andEU-ledsanctionsregime.ChineseVicePremierZhangGaolitold
PresidentPutinonSeptember1,2014,thathewant[ed]tomakeitclearthatChinacategoricallyopposesthesanctionsthe
UnitedStatesandWesterncountrieshavetakenagainstRussia.50However,Russiancompaniesquicklydiscoveredthat
ChinesefinancialinstitutionscouldbeasstrictasorevenstricterthansomeWesternbanksaboutcompliancewiththe
sanctionsregime.
PubliccomplaintsaboutChinesepartnersambiguouspositionregardingRussianbanksinthewakeofUSandEUsanctions,
asRussianbankerYuriSolovievputit,begantobevoicedinthesummerof2015,ayearafterPutinstriumphantvisitto
Shanghai.51Soloviev,thefirstdeputypresidentandchairmanofthesecond-largestbankinRussiastate-ownedJSCVTB
Bankusedthefollowingwords,inaJune16,2015,op-edinFinanceAsia:MostChinesebankswillcurrentlynotexecute
interbanktransactionswiththeirRussianpeers.Inaddition,Chinesebankshavesignificantlycurtailedtheirinvolvementin
interbankforeigntradedeals,suchasprovidingtradefinance.52Later,inSeptember2015,SolovievscolleagueVasilyTitov
complainedthatChinesebanksweretoorigorousinobservingWesternsanctionsandthatittooktwoweekstoclear
paymentsthroughChinesebankswhenithadtakenjustthreedaysbeforethesanctionswereintroduced.53
Publiclyavailabledataindicatethatsanctionshaveindeedhadanegativeeffect.In2014and2015,noRussiancompanies
managedtoissuedebtorequityonChinesestockexchangesincludingHongKong.Localregulatorsandfinancialinstitutions
appeartoharborbadmemoriesofRusalsill-starredinitialpublicoffering.Inaddition,thisnegativesentimentwasreportedly
strengthenedbyfriendlywordsofcautionfromU.S.TreasuryandStateDepartmentofficials.54Russianinvestorswerealso
waryofShanghaiaftertheequityroutthatbeganinthesummerof2015.Creditlinesamountingto9billionrenminbithat
RussiasSberbank,theJSCVTBBank,andChineselenderssignedinMayarebarelybeingusedbecausethereisnodemand
inRussiaforloansinrenminbi,accordingtoMaximPoletaev,thefirstdeputychairmanofSberbanksexecutiveboard.55Atthe
sametime,Chinesebankshavebeenreluctanttoprovideloansinmuch-neededU.S.dollarsoreuros.Inrarecaseswhen
ChinesecredithasbeenextendedtoRussiancompanies,thesetransactionshavelargelybeensyndicatedloansinvolving
Chinasfourlargestbanksworkingincoordinationwithotherinternationalplayers.Thisfundingisofferedonlytowell-regarded
corporateborrowerslikeNovolipetskSteel,56whicharenotundersanctionsandcontinuetoenjoyaccesstoWesterncredit.57
Otherraresuccessstoriesincludethe$2billioncreditlinethattheLondonsubsidiaryoftheBankofChinaprovidedto
Gazprom.58ThisdealappearstobeagoodwillgestureconnectedtothePowerofSiberiapipelineconstructionaheadof
PutinsvisittoChinainJune2016.DatafromtheCentralBankofRussiashowthatthenumberofloansoriginatingfromChina
rosethroughout2014and2015fromaverylowbaseline,butthetotalamountissmallandcaninnowayreplaceprevious
flowsofcreditfromWesternfinancialinstitutions(seefigure5).59
Broadlyspeaking,therearethreemainreasonsforChinesebankersreticenceabouttheRussianmarket.
First,thereisnooverlookingthefactthatWesternmarketsarefarmoredevelopedandattractivetoChinesebanksevenwhen
thosebanksarepresentedwithfavorabletermstotapintotheRussianmarketmoredeeply.In2015,Chinastradeingoods
withtheUnitedStateswas$598billion,60whileChinesetradewithEuropeingoodsforthesameyeartotaled520.9billion
euros(about$583.4billion).61Chinesestate-ownedbankswerealsorecentlyallowedtobuystakesinU.S.andEuropean
banksafteryearsofsuspicionandlong-standingbans.InRussia,Chinasfourlargestbankshaveneverbeenallowedtobuy
localplayers,andtheformersexpansionintotheretailsectorwassubjecttoadditionallevelsofscrutinyatatimewhen
investmentbyFrench,British,andItaliancompetitorswasencouraged.Moreover,Beijinghasrecentlyembarkedonaquestto
promotetherenminbiasaglobalcurrency,andChinasfourmajorbanksaretryingtocarveoutsignificantrolesintermsof
clearingpaymentsandmakingmarketsinEuropeandtheUnitedStates.Thechoicebetweenjeopardizingrelationswiththe
regulatorsoflarge,profitableprospectivemarketsandenteringtherelativelytiny,risky,andoverregulatedRussianmarketwas
aneasyoneformajorChinesefinancialplayers.
Second,ChinasbankingsectorlacksexpertiseonRussia.WhileChinesebankshavecapableteamsonthegroundinMoscow
andtheFarEast,thesearenomatchforthepoolofRussiaexpertsthatEuropeanandU.S.bankshaveattheirdisposal.As
riskcompliancegrowsincreasinglysynonymouswithnavigatingtheU.S.andEUsanctionsregimeandcircumventingwhat
couldbetermedtoxicgrayareas,thecostofoperatinginRussiaisprohibitiveformanyChinesebanks.Thefirstbankstocut
backonbusinesswithRussiaweresmalleronessuchasPingAnBank,theBankofCommunications,andChinaMerchants
Bank,whichwereservicingtheaccountsofcompaniesfromoffshorejurisdictionsusedtoclearpaymentswithRussia.The
bankshaveaskedsomecustomerstoclosetheiraccountsbecausetheywereengagedinsomeactivitieswithRussia,
accordingtoaRosbaltnewsreport.62RussianandChinesebankingrepresentativesindicateprivatelythatthesamesituation
hastakenholdinHongKong,wherelocalbankshavebecomeextremelyreticentaboutopeningbankaccountsforRussianas
wellasUkrainiancitizens.
Lastbutnotleast,thepoliticalenvironmentinwhichstate-ownedbanksarenowoperatinginthewakeoftheanticorruption
campaigndoesnotencouragetakingadditionalrisksinRussia.
WiththelionsshareofChinesecommercialbanksmaintainingacautiousstancetowardRussia,theonlytwoChinesefinancial
institutionsthathavebeenaggressivelysigningagreementswithRussianpartnersarethetwopoliticalbankstheChina
DevelopmentBank(CDB)andtheExport-ImportBankofChina(orChinaEximBank).63Thesebankswhichserveasthe
politicalpocketsoftheChinesegovernment,sotospeakarelessconnectedtotheinternationalfinancialsystem,andthus
cantakegreaterrisksintermsoftheirexposuretotheRussianmarket.64BothbankshavebeenactiveinRussiandealsthat
rangefrombuildingsteelplantstoprovidingcreditlinesforRussiassanctionedstate-ownedbanks.65Themostrecent
exampleoftheirinvolvementintheRussianeconomywasthelate-April2016announcementthattheCDBandtheChinaExim
Bankwillprovidemuch-neededloansfortheYamalLNGprojecttotaling$12billionoverfifteenyears,whichmeansthatthe
projecthaslockedinalltheexternalfinancingitneeds($27billionintotal).ThedealisalandmarknotonlybecauseYamal
LNGisakeypartofRussiasbroaderstrategyintheArcticandaflagshipLNGprojectbutalsobecauseNovatek(alongwith
majorshareholderGennadyTimchenko)isatargetofU.S.andEUsanctions.Total,aFrenchnatural-gasproduceranda
Yamalshareholder,hastriedtosecureEuropeanandJapanesefinancingfortheproject,accordingtoTotalCEOPatrick
PouyannsinterviewswithKommersantandAsiaNikkei,buttheseeffortsfailed.66ThesamelogicappliedtoaMarch15,
2016,dealinwhicha9.9percentstakeinYamalLNGwassoldtotheSilkRoadFund(SRF)fornearly$1.1billiontheSRFis
a$40billioninvestmentfundthatChinaestablishedin2014tosupportPresidentXisSilkRoadEconomicBeltinitiative.67
Amidsluggishdemandanddepressedglobalgasprices,manyinternationalmajorsaredelayingorshelvingbig-ticketLNG
projects,whichmakesthetimingoftheChineseinterestintheYamalprojectparticularlycurious.68AccordingtoChinese
interlocutors,bothdealswerepersonallyblessedbyXiandintendedasagestureofgoodwilltotheKremlin,givenTimchenkos
roleasamemberofPutinsinnercircleandhispointpersonforChina.Whilethepersonalinvolvementofthetwocountries
leadershelpsexplaintheimpetusbehindtheYamalLNGdeal,italsoseemslikelythattheselectiveuseoffinancialinstitutions
withlimitedexposuretointernationalmarketswillbecomethepreferredmethodforfuturebilateralventures.Therearealready
callsbyRussianexpertstoestablishaspecializedjointRussian-Chinesefinancialunitwhichshouldbeimmunetoany
pressurefromtheUnitedStatesortheEU,asVasilyKashinputit.69
AnotherimportantdirectionforRussian-Chinesecooperationisthecreationofnewmechanismsforraisingdebtinnational
currencies.InJuly2015,beforethestartoftheBRICSsummitinUfa,Chineseinvestorsbought$1billioninRussian
governmentbonds.70AccordingtoRussianDeputyFinanceMinisterAlexeyMoiseev,bothcountriesMinistriesofFinance,
alongwiththeCentralBankofRussiaandthePeoplesBankofChina,areworkingonmechanismsthatwillallowRussiato
issuerenminbi-denominatedgovernmentbondsinMoscowtargetingmainland-basedChineseinvestors.71Ifsuccessful,this
initiativewillcreateaframeworkforthepossiblefutureissuanceofso-calledpandabondsbyRussiancorporateplayers.The
firstpotentialissuancemaybeunderwrittenbytheIndustrialandCommercialBankofChina,theBankofChina,and
Gazprombank.72SucheffortsarenotdirectlyprohibitedbyU.S.andEUsanctions.Finally,BeijingisurgingRussiatojoinits
ChinaInternationalPaymentSystem,analternativetotheSocietyforWorldwideInterbankFinancialTelecommunication
(SWIFT).73Thesemoveswillhelptolaythegroundworkforbilateraltransactionsthatarecenteredaroundtherenminbiand
lesstiedtointernationalmarkets,includingtheU.S.bankingsystem.
OtherpiecesofthepuzzleincludeanagreementbetweentheChineseUnionPaycreditcardsystemandtheRussianMir
paymentsystemduetotakeeffectin2017,andapacttorecognizeeachothersauditingstandardsandcreditratings.This
collaborationbetweenUnionPayandMirandtheauditingandratingsmovesreflectMoscowsdesiretobreakthedomination
thatMasterCard,Visa,andinternationalratingsagenciesenjoyoveritspaymentssystem.ManyRussianbankshaverushedto
getChineselocalratingsissuedbyDagongGlobalCreditRating,whichrathercuriouslyratedRussiassovereigndebtasless
riskythanU.S.notes.74
Lastbutnotleast,inordertoprovideliquidity,bothcountrieswanttoboostaccesstoeachotherscurrencies.Thethree-year
currency-swapagreementfor150billionrenminbi(about$24.5billion)announcedinOctober2014duringChinesePremierLi
KeqiangsvisittoMoscowwasnotactivatedduetorubleandrenminbivolatility.Theinstabilityofthetwocurrenciescanbe
explainedbylowtradevolumesandthesmallshareofbilateraltradeclearedthroughnationalcurrencies.AccordingtoaMay
2015statementbyPresidentPutin,suchtransactionsaccountedforonly7percentofbilateraltradevolumein2014.75
Onbalance,RussianeliteshopesthatChinesefinancingwouldmakeupforthelossofWesterncapitalmarketsappear
exaggerated.ThelasttwoyearshaveshownthatevenChinesestate-ownedbanksarereluctanttorunafoulofU.S.andEU
sanctions,forfearofjeopardizingtheirrelationswiththeregulatorsoftheirmostsignificantinternationalmarkets.Still,Russia
andChinahavefoundwaystofinancehigh-prioritydealsthroughspecialchannels,andhaveembarkedonanattemptto
createtherudimentsofabilateralfinancialinfrastructurethatwillbeimmunetointernationalpressure.Chinawillbeplayingthe
dominantroleinthesearrangements,whichcouldhelpcementitsplaceasthefinancialcenterofgravityacrossEurasia.
TechnologicalLinks
TheRussian-Chineserelationshipisalsoexperiencingmajorshiftsincooperationoninfrastructureandtechnology.Previously,
ChinesecompanieswereinformallybannedfrombiddingonlargeinfrastructureprojectsinRussia,mostlikelyduetothe
KremlinsdesiretoprotectlocalcompaniesfromcompetitionincludingthosewithwhichithadstrongtiesaswellasRussian
fearsofaninfluxofChinesemigrantworkers.InMay2015,aconsortiumcomposedofaChinaRailwayGroupsubsidiarycalled
theChinaRailwayEryuanEngineeringGroup,theNationalTransportationEngineeringDesignInstituteofMoscow,andNizhny
NovgorodMetroDesignAGwastheonlybidderfora$400millioncontracttodesignahigh-speedraillinebetweenMoscow
andKazan.76OnApril29,2016,RussianrailwaysreportedthatChinawasreadytoprovideupto$6billioninloansandthata
concessionagreementwouldbesignedbytheendoftheyear.77TheChinesesidehasalsoagreednottoseekformal
Russiangovernmentloanguarantees,reportedlyatthedirectinstructionofPresidentXi,accordingtoseveralChinese
interlocutors.78Previousexperiencesuggeststhattheprojectcouldencountersignificantdelays,astheChinesepartnersare
demandingthatthelionsshareofequipmentbeproducedinChina.Yetthetoneoftheconversationmarksanimportantshift
inRussiasattitudetowardChineseparticipationinthedevelopmentofitsinfrastructure.
Oneareaofbilateraltechnologicalcooperationthatisboomingisinformationtechnology(IT)andhardware.Russian
companieshaddiscoveredtheadvantagesofworkingwithChinesetelecommunicationsgiantslikeZTEandHuaweias
opposedtotheirWesternrivalslongbeforetheUkrainecrisis.Discussionsaboutthepossibilityofshiftingtheprocurementof
RussianITnetworkassetsusedbygovernmentbodiesfromU.S.-producedtoChinese-producedequipmentintensifiedin2013
afterEdwardSnowdensdisclosuresaboutsurveillanceunderU.S.NationalSecurityAgencyprograms.InMay2014,Russias
MinistryofTelecomandMassCommunicationsestablishedataskforcetostudywhethersuchashiftwasfeasible,andbythe
endof2015theprocessoftransitioningtoChineseequipmentwaswellunderway.InOctober2014,theVoskhodResearch
InstitutewhichisadministereddirectlybyRussiasMinistryofTelecomandMassCommunicationsandprovideshardwareand
ITsolutionstostateinstitutions,includingmanycriticalsystemssuchasthevote-countingplatformusedinnationalandlocal
electionsagreedtobuyserversfromInspur,aChinesecompany.79Manyfinancialinstitutions,includingWestern-sanctioned
bankssuchasSberbankandJSCVTBBank,stateagencies,andstate-ownedcompanieshavestartedexpensive
modernizationprogramstoreplaceU.S.-madeequipment.80
Otherdealsaresmallinmonetarytermsbutlargeintheirsymbolicsignificance,suchastheJiangsuHengtongPowerCable
CompanyLimitedsagreementtosupplyhigh-voltagecablefortheanenergybridgethatisintendedtosupplyelectricityto
Crimea.81(WesternfirmsarepreventedfromparticipatingduetotheU.S.andEUsanctionsprogramagainstCrimea.)Faced
withovercapacityandfiercecompetitionathome,manyChinesefirmsaredirectingtheireffortstowardoverseasexpansion
andarewillingtoprovidesignificantdiscountsinordertosecurethefirst-moveradvantageinnewmarkets.Frompassenger
vehiclestocomplexITsystems,RussiasprocessoftransferringitstechnologicalpartnershipsfromtheWesttoChinahas
alreadybeguninearnest.
ComradesinArms
ThebiggesttectonicshiftcausedbytheUkrainecrisisishappeninginthemostsensitiveareaoftechnologicalcooperation
betweenRussiaandChinathemilitarysector.Fortenyears,Russiahadaninformalbanonsellingitsmostadvanced
technologytoChina.MoscowsconcernswerebothmilitaryitfearedthatweaponssoldmightonedaybeusedagainstRussia
andalsocommercial.TheChinesehadareputationwithintheRussianmilitary-industrialcomplexforcopyingRussian
equipment,producingtheirownversions,andthencompetingwithRussianarmsmanufacturersinwhatcouldbecalledtheir
naturalmarketslikeMyanmarandEgypt.
AftertheUkrainecrisis,theKremlintookafreshlookatitsoldpolicyandthepossibleimplicationsofexpandingbilateralarms
tradewithChinatoincludethemostsophisticatedsystems.Thereweretwolinesofreasoninginsupportofrelaxingthe
restrictions.First,RussiananalysisofChinasmilitaryindustryindicatedthatthesectorwasfarmoreadvancedthanpreviously
believed,leadingRussiandefenseofficialstoworrylessabouttheriskthattechnologytransferwouldprovideaboostto
Chinesecompetitorsintheglobalarmsmarket.Inaddition,MoscowlearnedthatmanyofthesystemsthattheChinesehad
allegedlystolenwereactuallydevelopedbyRussianengineersinthe1990sthroughcontractswithChinesemilitarySOEs.
Militarytechnologytransferwaspoorlyregulatedandlackedpropersupervisionatthattime,andBeijing,likemanyothers,was
simplytakingadvantageofthechaoticenvironment.Infact,thesecontractshelpedmanyRussianmilitaryenterprisesand
engineeringteamstosurvivetheseveredisruptionsofthe1990s.82
ThesecondargumentrevolvedaroundChinasactualdemographicandeconomicfootprintinSiberiaandtheFarEast.
Realisticofficialfigures,alongwithindependentstudies,haveshownthatChinesemigrationismarginal:atanygivenmoment,
therearenomorethan300,000ChineseinSiberiaandtheFarEast,includingtourists,exchangestudents,andlegal
temporaryworkers.Illegalmigrationwascurtailedtowardtheendofthe2000s,andundercurrenteconomicconditionspeople
inChineseborderprovincesprefertomigratetotherichcoastalregionsoftheirmotherland,nottoRussiasFarEast.This
trendhasacceleratedsincetherubledevaluation,asmanyChinesebusinesspeopleinRussia,whowerepreviouslysending
moneybackhome,reportedlyareleavingthecountryandaregoingbacktothePRC.83
ThesefactorshaveallowedMoscowtoreverseitslong-standingpolicyandresumesalesofadvancedweaponrytoChina.One
ofthemostimportantdealssofaristhesaleoftheS-400Triumphairdefensemissilecomplex,whichNATOcallstheSA-21
Growler.Thedeal,signedinSeptember2014,wasannouncedbyAnatolyIsaykintheCEOofRosoboronexport,theRussian
arms-exportmonopolyinanApril2015interviewwithKommersant.IfweworkinChinasinterests,thatmeanswealsoworkin
ourinterests,Isaykinsaid.84ChinawillstartreceivingthefirstoffourtosixconsignmentsofS-400snoearlierthan2018,85
andthepriceofthecontractcouldreach$3billion.86AsVasilyKashin,aRussianexpertonmilitarytieswithChina,wroteina
Carnegie.rucommentary,itwouldbenavetosupposethattheChinesecancopytheS-400systemswithinashortperiod
suchataskwouldrequiremanyyearsofeffort.Meanwhile,Almaz-Antey,theRussianproducerofairdefensesystems,is
alreadywellonitswaytodevelopingthenext-generationsystem(theS-500).87Thus,thedealmakesalotofcommercial
sense.
ThemilitaryandpoliticalconsequencesofthedealaremuchmoreimportantastheyincreasethePLAscapabilities.TheS-
400hasagreaterrangeforidentifyingtargetsandagreatermaximumfiringrange(upto400kilometersoraround250miles)
thanprevious-generationsystemsliketheS-300.Thiswillbringsignificantchangestothemilitarybalanceintheskiesover
TaiwanandtheDiaoyu(Senkaku)Islands.ThePLAnowwillbebetter-positionedtocontrolairspaceabovetheseregionsfrom
mainlandpositionsinFujianandShandongProvinces.ForJapan,thetaskofdefendingtheislandswillbecomemuchmore
difficult.ForTaiwan,theS-400maybeagamechanger,sincethePLAwouldbeabletoshootdownTaiwanesefighterplanes
assoonastheytakeoff.Chinacouldalsousethenewsystemtoestablishanairdefenseidentificationzoneoverthe
contestedwatersoftheSouthChinaSea.NegotiationsonthesaleoftheS-400toChinastartedseveralyearsago,butwere
significantlyacceleratedbytheUkrainecrisis.RussiasconfrontationwiththeWestanditsreassessmentofthestrategic
contextofRussian-ChineserelationspushedtheKremlintogiveitsfinalblessingtothedeal.
AnotherlandmarktransactioninfluencedbytheUkrainecrisiswasChinaspurchaseof24Su-35fighterjets,whichNATOcalls
theFlankerEthis$2billiondealwassignedinlate2015.88ItisnotablethatBeijingwasthefirstforeigncustomerforthis
advancedsystem.AccordingtoVasilyKashinscommentaryonCarnegie.ru,purchasingtheSu-35swillallowtheChineseAir
ForcetogaugeitssuccessindevelopingtheindigenousJ-11fighterjetandbecomefamiliarwithRussiansolutionstotechnical
problems.89TheSu-35s,whichareexpectedtobedeliveredbeginningattheendof2016,willalsohavemilitarysignificance,
reinforcingChinesedominanceinskiesoverTaiwanaswellasstrengtheningtheircombatpositionsinotherpotentialhotspots.
RussianofficialsandexpertsdifferastowhetherMoscowandBeijingshouldgoaheadwithmoreS-400orSu-35deals.But
RussiasreenergizedmilitarycooperationwithChinaisnotlimitedtothesetwosystems.TherearereportsthatMoscowmay
authorizesalesofitsnewlydevelopedLada-classsubmarinetoChina.90Reversesalesarealsotakingplace.Forexample,
afterGermanydeclinedtosellRussiadieselenginesforitsnewProject21631Buyan-Mcorvettesduetosanctions,Moscow
turnedtoBeijingtopurchaseChineseengines.AnotherareaofincreasedcooperationisthepurchaseofChineseelectronic
componentsforRussiasspaceprogram.91NoneofthesedealswouldhavebeenpossiblewithouttheruptureinRussias
relationswiththeWest,andallofthemwillhavefar-rangingconsequencesforthemilitarybalanceintheAsia-Pacific.
RegionalCooperation:TowardaGreaterEurasia?
MoscowsandBeijingsapproachestoregionalcooperationinCentralAsiaarealsoundergoingaprofoundchange.Inthe
decadessincethecollapseoftheSovietUnion,RussiahasviewedthefiveCentralAsianstatesasbelongingtoitsself-
proclaimedexclusivesphereofinfluence.AccordingtoofficialRussianthinking,CentralAsiaisanareawhereRussianotonly
hascenturies-longties,butalsopressingsecurityandeconomicinterests.TheKremlinhasviewedtherapidincreasein
Chinaseconomicandpoliticalpenetrationoftheresource-richregion,usuallyatRussiasexpense,withgreatunease.Beijing
hasbeenatpainstostressitsrespectforMoscowsexclusiveinterestsinCentralAsia,butclearlyperceivesaneedtosecure
firmtieswiththecountriesborderingtheunstableXinjiangregionandastrongincentivetogetaccesstotheregionsvast
energyresources.
XifirstunveiledChinasSilkRoadEconomicBeltprojectona2013triptoKazakhstan,anditwaslatercomplementedbya
maritimecomponent,leadingtoitsbeingrenamedtheOneBeltOneRoad(OBOR)initiative.OBORrepresentsBeijingsfirst
multidimensionalattempttotransformcountriesaroundChinausingacombinationoftargetedfinancialandinvestment
incentives,softpower,andmilitarytools.Inprivateconversations,Chineseofficialsacknowledgethattheyhadmajorconcerns
aboutRussiasreactiontotheunveilingofOBOR,astheKremlinwasinitiallyreluctanttonegotiategroundrulesfortheco-
existenceofXisinitiativeandPutinspetproject,theEurasianEconomicUnion(EEU).BeijingsfearwasthatMoscow,anxious
aboutitsownstatusastheleadingyetgreatlydiminishedregionalpower,wouldregardOBORasanintrusionintoRussias
sphereofinfluenceandthereforepressurethestatesofCentralAsianottotakepartintheChineseproject.Chineseleaders
werethereforebothsurprisedandrelievedwhenFirstDeputyPrimeMinisterShuvalovfirstannouncedattheBoaoForumin
March2015thattheEEUmemberswerereadytocooperatewithOBOR.Shuvalovthenpersonallyembarkedonnegotiatinga
frameworkdocumentwithBeijingonPutinsbehalf.
FortheRussianleadership,thiswastheresultofpainfulinternaldiscussions,inwhichtheeconomicteamledbyShuvalov
withsupportfromRussianexpertsandmembersofthebusinesscommunitysoughttowinPutinssupportandovercomethe
concernsofthesecurityestablishment.Intheend,theKremlinconcludedthatthebenefitsofcoordinatingtheEEUwiththe
Chineseinitiativeoutweighedtherisks.ItisnowunderstoodthatChinawillinevitablybecomethemajorinvestorinCentralAsia
andthemajormarketforitsvastnaturalresources,duetothecomplementarynatureoftheChineseandregionaleconomies.
AccordingtoRussianofficials,MoscowandBeijingwillstrivetoachieveastabledivisionoflaborinCentralAsia.China,withits
deeppocketsandhungerforresources,willbethemajordriverofeconomicdevelopmentintheregionthroughOBORand
otherprojects,whileMoscowwillremainthedominanthard-securityproviderthroughitsCollectiveSecurityTreatyOrganization
(CSTO),whilealsocementingtheEEUsroleasasourceofnormsfortheimplementationofChineseinvestmentprojects.The
KremlinhopesthisformulawillsatisfybothBeijingwhichisstilluncomfortabledeployingtroopsoutsideitsbordersandthe
CentralAsianstates,whichareanxiousaboutarisingChinaandmoreaccustomedtoRussiaslong-standingmilitarypresence
intheregion.
OnMay8,2015,PutinandXisignedajointdeclarationoncooperationincoordinatingthedevelopmentoftheEEUandthe
SilkRoadEconomicBelt.92MoscowandBeijingdeclaredtheirdesiretocoordinatethetwoprojectsinordertobuildacommon
economicspaceinEurasiafeaturingafreetradeagreementbetweenEEUmembersandChina.Althoughthelanguageisstill
somewhatambiguous,thedocumentmarkedamajordeparturefromtheKremlinspreviouscourseofcompetitionand
suspicion.BeijingformallyrecognizedtheEEUasapotentialnegotiatingpartneronthefreetradezoneandonrulesforthe
implementationoftransnationalinfrastructureprojects.TheEurasianEconomicCommission,thesupranationalbodyofthe
EEU,receivedamandatefromitsmemberstatestostartnegotiationsonatradeandinvestmentagreementwithChina.This
issue,whichisastumblingblockforbothRussiaandtheCentralAsianstatesgiventheirhighlevelsofprotectionism,was
declaredadistantgoalandeffectivelyrelegatedtoanundeterminedpointinthefuture.
Ofcourse,therealityhasproventobemorecomplicatedthantheseambitioushopes.Bysigningthedeclarationbilaterallywith
China,MoscowoffendeditsEEUpartners,mostnotablyKazakhstan.Thus,Astanaandothercapitalscontinuetohavegood
reasontoreachouttoBeijingdirectlyinordertoseekinvestment,bypassingboththeEEUbureaucracyandtheKremlin.China
alsostayedtruetoitsoldhabitofdoingbusinesswithCentralAsianleadersonapurelybilateralbasis,withoutinvolving
Moscow.DuringhisSeptember2015visittoBeijing,KazakhPresidentNursultanNazarbaevsignedadeclarationof
coordinationbetweenOBORandKazakhstansnationalinfrastructuredevelopmentprogram,NurlyZhol.Kazakhstanwasthe
firstCentralAsianstatetoactivelypitchitsinvestmentprojectstoChina,whichcausedtensionswithMoscow.InOctober2015,
EEUleadersagreedtocoordinatetheirbilateralarrangementswithChinaundertheunionsumbrella,butsofarnotmuchhas
happened.ItwasonlyinMarch2016attheBoaoForumthatRussianDeputyPrimeMinisterDvorkovichpromisedChinese
PremierLithatRussiawouldprovidealistofEEUproposalsforinvestmentprojectsthatcouldhelptolinkupthetwoinitiatives.
ThefirstanniversaryoftheostensiblyhistoricdeclarationwasthuscelebratedquietlyinBeijingandMoscowwithasilent
consensusthatthefirstyearoftheagreementhadbasicallybeenafailure.TheMay31EEUsummitinAstanaalsobroughtno
majornewsregardingEEU-OBORcoordination.
Despitemutualdissatisfactionoverthelackofprogressonthesecoordinationefforts,theoverlappinginterestsofthetwogreat
powersmayoutweightheirdifferences.BothRussiaandChinashareavisionofaregionrunbysecularauthoritarianleaders
withnomajorinterstateconflictsandnooutsideinvolvement,particularlyoftheUnitedStatesanditsallies.Giventheextentof
U.S.disengagementfromtheregionasthedrawdownfromAfghanistancontinues,andRussiasrelativedeclineasan
economiccenterofgravity,overthelongrunMoscowandBeijingmayfindwaystoaccommodatetheirmutualinterestsoutside
theframeworkofEEU-OBORcooperation,especiallyasthefutureofbothprojectslooksdim.
However,rivalrybetweenRussiaandChinainCentralAsiaisquitepossibleandcouldevenacceleratewhenthelong-expected
leadershiptransitionsinKazakhstanandUzbekistan,thetwomostimportantcountriesintheregion,finallytakeplace.Moscow
andBeijinglackcoordinationmechanismsorintensivediplomaticdialogueonCentralAsia.Anyabruptdepartureofleadersin
AstanaorTashkentcouldconceivablytriggerasuccessioncrisis.Rivalfactionsoflocalelitesmayendupreachingoutto
MoscowandBeijingforsupport.Whilesuchdynamicsareunpredictable,itisnothardtoconceiveofdestabilizingscenarios,
whichcouldspuramajorrupturebetweenthetwopowers.
Inasimilarvein,tensionsbetweenMoscowandBeijinginCentralAsiamayariseifthelattercontestsRussiasself-proclaimed
roleastheleadsecurityprovidertotheregion.SofarChinaofficiallyhasavoidedstepsthatmightundercutRussiasposition
asthepreeminentregionalmilitarysuperpower,astatusthatRussiaenjoysthankstoitsroleinCentralAsiathroughCSTOand
itsmilitarypresenceinTajikistanandKyrgyzstan.ThemainvenueforBeijingsparticipationinregionalsecurityarrangements
forthepreviousdecadehasbeentheShanghaiCooperationOrganization,whichhasprovidedaplatformforjointRussian-
Chinesemilitarydrills.However,ChinasgrowingtradeandinvestmentpresenceinCentralAsiaisstartingtotriggeran
evolutioninBeijingslong-standingposition.Theregionsmineralresourcesarelikelytoplayanincreasinglyimportantrolein
thePRCsoverallenergysecurity.Likewise,risksofinstabilityaregrowingduetothedeterioratingsecuritysituationin
neighboringAfghanistanandthepotentialriseofIslamicextremism.Asofthiswriting,thecircumstancesbehindthedeadly
June2016attacksintheKazakhcityofAktoberemainfarfromclear,butmayprovideanotherindicationthateventhemost
stablecountriesinCentralAsiafacethisthreat.Takentogether,theChineseleadershipwillprobablystarttothinkabouthowto
protectitsregionaleconomicinterests.OBOR-relatedinfrastructureprojectsandinvestmentsmayprovideyetanotherreason
forChinatothinkaboutassumingamoreactiveroleinprovidingregionalsecurityandphysicalprotectionforcritical
infrastructure.
AccordingtoChineseexpertsadvisingZhongnanhaionRussianandCentralAsianaffairs,Beijinghistoricallyhasbeenhappy
withtheestablisheddivisionoflaborwithMoscow.Chineseattemptstoforgebilateralsecuritytieswithcountriesoftheregion
wereseenascounterproductivesincetheycouldpotentiallyjeopardizetieswithMoscoworraisesuspicionsinlocalcapitals
aboutChineseintentions.Thislineofthinkingisslowlystartingtochange,asBeijingbecomesincreasinglyworriedabout
Moscowsunpredictability,andalsotheKremlinsabilitytomaintainpromisedlevelsofinvestmentinCSTOanditsmilitary
installationsinCentralAsia.
InternaldiscussionontherolethatChinacouldplayasaregionalsecurityproviderarestillintheirinfancyandrarely
mentioned,ifatall,inChineseopensources.93However,accordingtoChineseacademics,differentideasarebeingfloated,
suchasestablishingspecialChineseprivatemilitarycompaniesordevelopingclosertieswithregionalarmies.Notablerecent
developmentsincludeaMarch2016visittoTajikistanandAfghanistanbyFangFenghui,thechiefofthePLAsGeneralStaff
andamemberoftheCentralMilitaryCommission,todiscussbilateralmilitary-to-militarytieswithbothcountries,aswellasthe
establishmentofanewsecuritycoordinationmechanismforintelligencesharingandconsultationsamongBeijing,Dushanbe,
Kabul,andIslamabad.ThesedevelopmentshavestirredanxietyinMoscow,withsomeexpertslabelingthesemovesanattempt
tocreateanalternative,Beijing-centeredsecurityframeworkintheregionthatwillputRussiaatadisadvantage.94Fangstrip
wasalsoatopicfordiscussionbetweentheRussianandChineseenvoysonissuespertainingtoAfghanistan,ZamirKabulov
andDengXijun,duringtheirMarch2016talksinMoscow.
TheKremlinsofficialreactiontoBeijingsmovesremainscalm,asisseeninKabulovsremarkstotheRussiangovernment
newspaperIzvestia.95NeverthelessfurtherChineseattemptstoboostitssecurityroleinCentralAsiaattheexpenseofRussia
mayerodefragiletrustthathasbeenfosteredbetweenthetwocountriesnationalsecurityestablishments.Overtime,such
movescouldunderminetheoverallrelationshipand,conceivably,triggermisunderstandings,miscalculations,andrenewed
feelingsofgeopoliticalrivalry.
TowardAsymmetricInterdependence
TwoyearsafterPutinsMay2014visittoShanghai,RussianhopesofaquickandstableChinesealternativetoEuropean
energyandcapitalmarketsaregoingthroughapainfulrealitycheck.BilateraltradewithChinaplungedby28percentin2015
duetothefalloutfromlowercommoditypricesandtheknock-oneffectsofthecontinueddeclineoftheRussianeconomyand
thedevaluationoftheruble.ManyoftheRussian-Chinesedealsinauguratedwithmuchfanfareoverthelasttwenty-four
monthshaveremainedonpaper.LeadingChinesebankshavesurprisedtheKremlinwiththeirrigorousadherencetoWestern
sanctions.CapitalmarketsinShanghaiandHongKonghaveremainedlargelyclosedtoRussianissuersaswell.Thefew
existingchannelsofaccesstoChinesemoneythroughpoliticalbanksremainopenonlyforahandfulofstrategicstate-owned
companiesandmembersofPutinsinnercircle.
GrowingdisillusionmentwithMoscowspivottoChinaisstartingtocometothesurface,airedinpublicforumsbythemostwell-
connectedandwealthyRussiancitizens.96SimilardisillusionmentiswidespreadinBeijing,whereofficialsandbusinesspeople
complainaboutRussiansbeingstubborn,arrogant,andshort-sightedmissingagoldenopportunitytoopenuptoChinaasa
result.
Still,temporarysetbacksnotwithstanding,MoscowandBeijingaredriftingclosertogether.Thefundamentalconditionsfor
Russian-ChineserapprochementwerepresentlongbeforetheUkrainecrisis.Theseincludethecomplementaryand
increasinglyinterdependentnatureofthetwocountrieseconomiesasharedcommitmenttomaintainingauthoritarianpolitical
systemsandlimitingforeigninfluenceathome,aswellastoupholdingprinciplesofsovereigntyandnoninterventionineach
othersaffairstraditionalistsocialnormsandvaluesfueledbythegreat-powerambitionsoflargeswathesoftheirpopulations
andacommoneliteandpopularresentmentoftheWestsglobaldominance.Themutualdistrustbetweentheelitesofboth
countries,particularlyontheRussianside,andtheveryambivalentpersonalstanceofmanypowerfulofficialsandtycoonsin
bothcountriestowardtheWest,meantformanyyearsthatthetwocountriesonlysawmarginalimprovementsinrelations
despitetheirmanysharedinterests.NowthepersonalchemistrybetweenPutinandXiandtheWesternsanctionscampaign
againstRussiahavegalvanizedthepartnershipandmaybringittoanewandhigherlevelthanbefore.
ThisnewRussian-Chineserelationshipmayturnouttobemoremeaningfulthanpreviouslywasthecase,butitishardto
overlookthedegreeofinequalitybetweenthetwopartners.ThebasictrendisoneofRussiaandChinamovingtowarda
deeperasymmetricalinterdependence,withBeijingenjoyingafarstrongerposition.Thebiggestnewdevelopmentisthatthis
economicinequalitymaynolongerbeabarriertogreatercooperation.RussiafacescontinuedestrangementfromtheWestin
theformofthesanctionsregime,whichwillimpactMoscowsabilitytobuildclosertiestoU.S.alliessuchasJapanandSouth
Korea.Russialacksthepoliticalwilltomodernizeitseconomyandinstitutions,whichwouldrequirechallengingvariouspillarsof
thecurrentregimeandvestedinterests.Inthatcontext,MoscowmaybemostcomfortablewithChinaasitskeypartner,
especiallyasChinaiswillingtoacceptRussiaasitis.Beijingis,ofcourse,unlikelytocriticizeRussiaslackofprogresson
economicreformsorthepoorstateofitsdemocracy.Inreturn,Russiamaybecomemoreaccommodatingonitstermsfor
commercialcooperationwithChina.
IffuturegasandoilpipelinesoriginatinginSiberiaendupleadingtoChinaonly,Russiawilldenyitselfoptionstobranchoutto
otherpotentialmarketsinotherAsianeconomiesviathePacificOcean.Gazpromssuggestionthatitmayscrapthe
VladivostokLNGprojectinfavorofyetanotherpipelinetoChinasuggestsMoscowmayalreadybemovinginthisdirection.
BeforetheUkrainecrisis,RussiawastryingtocreatepipelineinfrastructureleadingtothePacificCoast,whilebranchpipelines
toChinawereseenasnecessarypreconditionsforreceivingChinesefunding(thiswasthecasewiththeESPOoilpipeline).
Now,directpipelinestoChinamaybecomeendsinthemselves,particularlyifcommoditypricesremainlowandRussia
continuestolackthetechnologyitneedstobuildLNGplants.
AsecondmajoroutcomecouldbeMoscowsacceptanceofChinesecompaniesownershipofsubstantialstakes(includingjoint
controlwithRussianminoritystakeholders)instrategicdepositsofnaturalresources.AsremarksmadebyRussianDeputy
PrimeMinisterDvorkovichinKrasnoyarskin2015show,thisideaisalreadycirculatingwithintheRussianelitecommunity.So
farmarketconditionsandhopesforaspeedyremovalfromWesternsanctionshaveallowedRussianstodriveahardbargain
whendiscussingpotentialsalesoftheseassets.However,ifcurrentconditionspersist,Russiasappetiteforhardcashmay
growinthemediumterm,andtheChinesemaybeabletobuyassetsatmuchcheaperprices.Athirdformofsymbiosiscould
taketheshapeofjointventuresbetweenChinesecompaniesandRussianbusinesspeopleclosetotheKremlin,inwhichthe
ChinesewouldprovidetechnologyandfinancingwhiletheRussianswouldensureMoscowsapprovalofprojectsandbids.
Ofcourse,ifWesternsanctionsareeventuallyliftedorrelaxed,commoditypricesrecover,orRussiaembarksonmeaningful
structuralreformsthatdramaticallyimproveitsattractivenesstoforeigninvestors,thingscouldgobacktotheirpre-Ukraine
state.Butallthreeofthesescenariosseemratherfar-fetchedatthemoment.Russiaappearsmorelikelytocontinuetoslip
furtherintoChinasembrace,atleastintheeconomicsphere.Inthisnewscheme,themutualbenefitsthatbothsidesderive
willcompensateforthegrowinginequalitybetweenthem.ChinawillofferMoscowaneconomiclifeline,whileRussiawillprovide
vitalresources(militaryandciviliantechnology,naturalresources,anddiplomaticsupport,includingintheUNSecurityCouncil)
topropelChinasriseasaglobalpowerhousethatcancompetewiththeUnitedStates.ThebitterpillofRussiascontinued
declinewillbelesspainfulamidBeijingseffortstoshowsymbolicdeferencetoRussiasstatusasagreatpower.Thetoneof
theirofficialdialoguewilldiffersharplyfromwhatMoscowhearsfromWesterninterlocutors,asthevaluesofthetworegimes
convergemuchmoreclosely.
Westernexpectationsthatdifferencesbetweenthetwocountrieswillinevitablyleadtorivalry,aswiththesplitbetweenChina
andtheSovietUnioninthe1960s,couldprovehollow.RussiahasindeedbeenfrustratedinitshopesthatChinawouldquickly
fillthevoidleftbytheWest,buthasneverthelessembarkedonatrajectoryofgrowingdependenceonBeijing.The
consequencesfortheWestwillbefar-rangingandlong-lasting,giventhewealthofresourcesthatRussiacanofferChinato
supportitsgloballeadershipaspirations.ThemostimmediaterepercussionswilllikelyconcerngrowingChinesemilitary
capabilitiesinthecomingyears:sophisticatedRussianweaponrycouldbeagamechangerinconflictsoverTaiwan,theSouth
ChinaSea,andtheEastChinaSea.RussiasdiplomaticsupportforChinaalsowillbeimportant.Inthelongrun,itwillbecome
moreandmoredifficultforMoscowtoremainneutralonissueslikedisputesintheSouthChinaSea,anditwillnotbeeasyfor
RussiatokeepupmilitarytieswithcountriessuchasVietnam.Othercountriesshouldtakenoteandrethinktheirassumptions
abouttheRussian-Chineserelationship.ThefalloutfromtheUkrainecrisisistriggeringfundamentalchangesinrelations
betweenthelargestpowersinEurasia,whichwillleavefewunaffected.
Notes
1Foramoredetaileddiscussion,seeAlexanderGabuev,ASoftAlliance?:Russia-ChinaRelationsAftertheUkraineCrisis,
EuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations,February10,2015,http://www.ecfr.eu/page/-/ECFR126_-_A_Soft_Alliance_Russia-
China_Relations_After_the_Ukraine_Crisis.pdf.
2ThisobservationisbasedonprivatemeetingswithseveralindependentRussianexpertsfamiliarwiththematter.
3ThisstudyisbasedonaseriesofinterviewswithRussianandChineseofficials,businesspeople,andexperts.Interviewswere
conductedfromFebruary2014toApril2016inMoscow,Vladivostok,Beijing,andHongKong.Theauthorwouldliketothankall
whowerereadytosharetheirinsights.Mostoftheinterlocutors,forunderstandablereasons,haverequestedanonymitydue
tothesensitivenatureoftheirwork.TheauthorwouldalsoliketothankVitaSpivakandNataliaDobrynina,hisresearch
assistantsattheCarnegieMoscowCenter.
4See,forexample,GilbertRozman,AsiafortheAsians:WhyChinese-RussianFriendshipIsHeretoStay,ForeignAffairs,
October29,2014,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/east-asia/2014-10-29/asia-asians.
5DmitriTreninusestheFrenchwordententetodescribethenewstateofRussian-Chineserelations,inwhichBeijingand
MoscowsupporteachotherintheirstruggleagainstU.S.dominancebutarentengagedinaformalalliance.SeeDmitriTrenin,
FromGreaterEuropetoGreaterAsia?TheSino-RussianEntente,CarnegieMoscowCenter,April9,2015,
http://carnegie.ru/2015/04/09/from-greater-europe-to-greater-asia-sino-russian-entente/i64a.
6ThistermwascoinedbyformerAustraliandiplomatBoboLoinhisbookofthesametitle.SeeBoboLo,AxisofConvenience:
Moscow,Beijing,andtheNewGeopolitics(Washington,DC:BrookingsInstitution,2008).
7PutinandXi:NotQuitetheAlliesTheySeem,FinancialTimes,May7,2015,http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cd637c7e-f4a8-
11e4-8a42-00144feab7de.html#axzz4AxH2WeWF.
8ThomasS.EderandMikkoHuotari,MoscowsFailedPivottoChina,ForeignAffairs,April17,2016,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2016-04-17/moscow-s-failed-pivot-china.
9BenBlanchard,XiJinpingsJourneyFromChinaPartyElitetoPartyLeader,Reuters,November15,2012,
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-congress-xi-idUSBRE8AE0BZ20121115.
10EvanOsnos,BornRed,NewYorker,April6,2015,http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/04/06/born-red.
11AreadoutofthemeetingbetweenPrimeMinisterVladimirPutinandChineseVicePresidentXiJinpingisavailableat:Prime
MinsiterPutinMeetsWithChineseVicePresidentXiJinping,ArchiveoftheOfficialSiteofthe20082012PrimeMinisterofthe
RussianFederationVladimirPutin,March23,2012,http://archive.premier.gov.ru/eng/events/news/9884/.
12EvidenceofthischangeofcoursecanbefoundinpubliclyavailabledocumentssuchasaMay2014speechbyPrime
MinisterDmitryMedvedev:SoveschaniyeorazvitiisotrudnichestvasostranamiAziatsko-Tihookeanskogoregiona
[ConsultationonthedevelopmentofcooperationwithAsiaPacificcountries],RussianGovernment,May12,2014,
http://government.ru/news/12293/.
13Reuters,PutinMakesSanctionedBillionaireTimchenkoHeadofRussia-ChinaBusinessCouncil,MoscowTimes,May22,
2014,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/putin-makes-sanctioned-billionaire-timchenko-head-of-russia-china-
business-council/500731.html.
14AprofileofGennadyTimchenkocanbefoundat:GennadiyTimchenko[GennadyTimchenko],Forbes,May3,2016,
http://www.forbes.ru/profile/gennadii-timchenko.
15DenisVolkov,RussianEliteOpinionAfterCrimea,CarnegieMoscowCenter,March23,2016,
http://carnegie.ru/2016/03/23/russian-elite-opinion-after-crimea/iwdo.
16SeethedetaileddiscussioninPeterHaysGries,ChinasNewNationalism:Pride,Politics,andDiplomacy(Berkeley,CA:
UniversityofCaliforniaPress,2004).
17AndreyKolesnikov,RussianIdeologyAferCrimea,CarnegieMoscowCenter,September22,2015,
http://carnegie.ru/2015/09/22/russian-ideology-after-crimea/ihzq.
18MariaRepnikova,WhenXiWenttoMoscowandPutinWenttoBeijing,JournalofAsianStudies74,no.4(November
2015):1318.
19Levada-Center,MonitoringPublicAttitudesTowardsOtherCountries,September2015
http://www.levada.ru/2015/09/22/monitoring-otnosheniya-rossiyan-k-drugim-stranam-sentyabr/.
20Forexample,anarticlethatJosephNyewroteforProjectSyndicateinJanuary2015statesthatwithitseconomic,military,
anddemographicheftChinageneratesconsiderableuneaseinRussia.Considerthedemographicsituationineastern
Siberia,wheresixmillionRussiansliveacrosstheborderfromupto120millionChinese.See:JosephS.Nye,ANewSino-
RussianAlliance?,ProjectSyndicate,January12,2015,http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia-china-alliance-by-
joseph-s--nye-2015-01?barrier=true.
21AsummarycanbefoundinShannonTiezzi,ChinaBacksRussiaonUkraine,Diplomat,March4,2014,
http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/china-backs-russia-on-ukraine/.
22ThemessagewasrepublishedbytheChinaDigitalTimesprojectswebsite:Minitrue:CrimeaVotestoJoinRussia,China
DigitalTimes,March17,2014,http://chinadigitaltimes.net/2014/03/minitrue-crimea-votes-join-russia/.
23DetailedanalysisofChinesebehaviorcanbefoundinShannonTiezzi,ChinaReactstotheCrimeaReferendum,Diplomat,
March18,2014,http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/china-reacts-to-the-crimea-referendum/.
24WangHaiyun,WuweijhuogeiZhongguodailaishiniankuansongqi[UkrainecrisiscanbringChina10yearsofrelaxation],
HuanqiuShibao,April23,2014,http://opinion.huanqiu.com/opinion_world/2014-04/4978486.html.
25PrivatemeetinginBeijinginMarch2016.
26WangHaiyun,ChangshuaiEzhongguanxishizhanlueshangfanhutu[ItsstrategicallyblindtotreatSino-Russianrelations
likemud],HuanqiuShibao,April2,2015,http://opinion.huanqiu.com/opinion_world/2015-02/5587490.html.
27See,forexample,ElenaMazneva,ChinaGasDemandForecastCutbyCNPCResearcherAmidSlowdown,Bloomberg,
September30,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-30/china-gas-demand-forecast-cut-by-cnpc-researcher-
amid-slowdown.
28AndreyMovchan,JustanOilCompany?TheTrueExtentofRussiasDependencyonOilandGas,CarnegieMoscow
Center,September14,2015,http://carnegie.ru/2015/09/14/just-oil-company-true-extent-of-russia-s-dependency-on-oil-and-
gas/ijra.
29EricaStreckerDowns,ChinasQuestforEnergySecurity(SantaMonica,CA:RANDCorporation,2000),2429.
30MessageontheGazpromswebsitepostedonSeptember19,2014:AddressbyGazpromManagementCommittee
ChairmanAlexeyMillerat13thInternationalInvestmentForumSochi-2014,Gazprom,September19,2014,
http://www.gazprom.com/press/miller-journal/335371/.
31MikhailSerov,Rossiyazhdetavansa[Russiawaitsforaprepayment],Vedomosti,May22,2014,
http://www.vedomosti.ru/newspaper/articles/2014/05/22/rossiya-zhdet-avansa.
32GazpromCancels$2.15BlnTenderforConstructionofPowerofSiberiaGasPipelineStretch,TASS,December29,2015,
http://tass.ru/en/economy/847697.
33MikhailKrutikhin,KakGazpromustalonekudadevatgaz[HowGazpromendedupwithnoonetosellitsgasto],Carnegie
MoscowCenter,June24,2015,http://carnegie.ru/2015/06/24/ru-60480/iaz0.
34JonathanStern,GasPipelineCooperationBetweenPoliticalAdversaries:ExamplesFromEurope,ChathamHouse,
January2005,
http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/files/chathamhouse/public/Research/Energy,%20Environment%20and%20Development/jsjan05.pdf.
35AlexandraGalaktionovaandElenaMyazina,RotenbergbezkonkursapoluchilkontraktiGazpromapochtina200mlrdrub
[Rotenbergreceivesa200billionrubleGazpromcontractswithoutformalbid],RBC,December23,2015,
http://www.rbc.ru/business/23/12/2015/567adfee9a79471210b50252KitajnachalstroitprodolzhenieSiliSibiri[Chinabegins
constructconstructionofPowerofSiberiaextension],Vedomosti,June2,2015,
http://www.vedomosti.ru/business/news/2015/06/02/594774-kitai-nachal-stroit-prodolzhenie-sili-sibiri.
36NataliaDerbyzheva,KompaniyaTimchenkobezkonkursapoluchilavtoroypodryadpoSileSibiri[Timchenkoscompany
hasgainedsecondcontractforPowerofSiberiawithoutatender],RBC,May20,2016,
http://www.rbc.ru/business/20/05/2016/573f1d949a794729a502994c.
37PrivatemeetingswithRussianofficials.
38MessageonGazpromwebsitepostedonMay8,2015:GazpromandCNPCSignHeadsofAgreementforGasSupplyVia
WesternRoute,pressrelease,Gazprom,May8,2015,http://www.gazprom.com/press/news/2015/may/article226167/.
39RosneftResumesTalksWithGazpromonSalesofGasFromSakhalin-1ProjectReport,TASS,May18,2016,
40Kitaystalkrupneyshimimporteromrossiyskoynefti[ChinabecamethelargerimporterofRussianoil],Vedomosti,March11,
2016,http://www.vedomosti.ru/business/news/2016/03/11/633217-kitai-nefti.
41OlgaMordyushenko,RosneftneidetvKitaiposuhu[RosneftdoesntgotoChinatroughland-basedroutes],
Kommersant,January14,2016,http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2890833.
42MengMengandChenAizhu,RussiaPipsSaudiArabiaAgainasTopChinaCrudeSupplierinMarch,Reuters,April21,
2016,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-crude-imports-idUSKCN0XI0VD.
43SeethisanalyticalreportonRussian-Chinesetradecooperationin2015:Analiticheskayaspravkaorossiisko-kitaiskom
torgovomsotrudnichestvev2015godu[AnalyticalreportonRussian-Chinesetradecooperationin2015],IntegratedForeign
EconomicInformationPortal,February2,2016,http://www.ved.gov.ru/exportcountries/cn/cn_ru_relations/cn_ru_trade/.
44SellingStakeinVankorOilandGasFieldtoChinaforYuanPossibleEnergyMinister,TASS,November18,2014,
45TheKremlinstrancriptofthisinterviewwaspostedonlineonNovember14,2014:InterviewtoTASSAgency,Official
InternetResourcesofthePresidentofRussia,November14,2014,http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47009.
46AlinaFadeeva,MinfingotopprodatRosneft[MinistryofFinancereadytosellRosneft],Vedomosti,December16,2015,
http://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2015/12/16/621264-minfin-rosneft.
47YuliaKotovaandMaximTovkailo,KitayskuyuCNPCzainteresovalaprivatizatsiyaRosnefti[ChineseCNPCisinterestedin
Rosneftprivatization],RBC,April21,2016,http://www.rbc.ru/business/21/04/2016/5718bd919a7947743d4115f6.
48AlinaFadeeva,RosneftvperviyeprivlekaetkitaiskuyukompaniyudlyabureniyanashelfeOhotskogomoray[Forthefirst
time,RosneftinvitesaChinesecompanytodrillontheOkhotskSeashelf],Vedomosti,September2,2015,
http://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2015/09/03/607298-rosneft-vpervie-privlekaet-kitaiskuyu-kompaniyu-dlya-bureniya-
shelfe-ohotskogo-morya.
49JackFarchy,GazpromNeftSellsOiltoChinainRenminbiRatherThanDollars,FinancialTimes,June1,2015,
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/8e88d464-0870-11e5-85de-00144feabdc0.html#axzz4AjYW0EYt.
50TranscriptoftheSeptember1,2014,meetingbetweenPutinandZhangGaolicanbeaccessedat:MeetingWithVice
PremierofChinaZhangGaoli,OfficialInternetResourcesofthePresidentofRussia,September1,2014,
http://en.kremlin.ru/catalog/countries/CN/events/46530.
51YuriSoloviev,UnlockingthePotentialofRussia-AsiaCooperation,FinanceAsia,June16,2015,
http://www.financeasia.com/News/398460,unlocking-the-potential-of-russia-asia-cooperation.aspx.
52Ibid.
53AlexandraTerentyeva,Kitaiskiyebankislishkomtshatelnopodhodiatksankciyam-VTB[VTB:Chinesebankstoostricton
sanctions],Vedomosti,September5,2015,http://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2015/09/05/607669-kitaiskie-baki-
slishkom-tschatelno-podhodyat-sanktsiyam.
54AccordingtoasetofinterviewswithHongKongbankersconductedinSeptember2015.
55YuliyaFedorinova,ElenaMazneva,andAnnaBaraulina,PutinsGotaNewProblemWithChina,Bloomberg,September2,
2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-01/putin-s-china-turn-hits-potholes-as-trade-drops-markets-slide.
56NLMKsNovember2,2015,corporateannouncementcanbeaccessedat:NLMKGroupClosesUSD400MillionPre-Export
Facility,pressrelease,LondonStockExchange,November2,2015,
http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/news/market-news/market-news-detail/NLMK/12564244.html.
57SandrineBradley,Update1-LPC-RussiasNLMKSigns250MlnEuroLoanWithInternationalBanks,Reuters,April30,
2015,http://www.reuters.com/article/nlmk-loans-idUSL4N0XR6QL20150430.
58JackFarchy,GazpromSecures2bnLoanFromBankofChina,FinancialTimes,March3,2016,
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ac5b1ee4-e159-11e5-9217-6ae3733a2cd1.html#axzz47mLAFUVa.
59PleaseseeExternalSectorStatistics,CentralBankoftheRussianFederation,http://www.cbr.ru/eng/statistics/?PrtId=svs.
60DatacanbeaccessedattheOfficeoftheUnitedStatesTradeRepresentativesofficialwebpage:ThePeoplesRepublicof
China:U.S.-ChinaTradeFacts,OfficeoftheUnitedStatesTradeRepresenative,http://ustr.gov/countries-regions/china-
mongolia-taiwan/peoples-republic-china.
61DatacanbeaccesedattheEuropeanCommisionsofficialwebsite:China,EuropeanCommissionTrade,April29,2016,
http://ec.europa.eu/trade/policy/countries-and-regions/countries/china/.
62BankiKitayaotkazivayutsyaobsluzhivatoffshornieschetarossiyskihklientov[ChinesebanksrefusetoworkwithRussians
offshoreaccounts],Rosbalt,September24,2014,http://www.rosbalt.ru/business/2014/09/24/1318906.html.
63EricaDowns,InsideChina,Inc:ChinaDevelopmentBanksCross-BorderEnergyDeals,JohnL.ThorntonChinaCenter
MonographSeriesNo.3,BrookingsInstitution,March2011,http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/3/21-
china-energy-downs/0321_china_energy_downs.pdf.
64Ibid.
65DvakitayskihbankaotkrilikreditoSberbanku,VTBIVEBu[TwoChinesebankshaveprovidedcreditlinestoSberbank,
VTBandVEB],TASS,May8,2015,http://tass.ru/ekonomika/1956850VEBsofficialstatementcanbeaccessedat:VEBand
theChinaDevelopmentBankSignCreditAgreement,VEBBankforDevelopment,December17,2015,
http://www.veb.ru/en/press/news/arch_news/index.php?id_19=101631RussiasVTB,VEBRosselkhazbankAgreeOnLoans
withChinaEximBank,Reuters,October13,2014,http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-china-banks-
idUSL6N0S81HT20141013.
66YuriBarsukov,Ugazasvetloebudushee[Gashasabrightfuture],Kommersant,July17,2015,
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2769183TotalCEOEyesCuttingCosts,ContinuingYamalLNGProject,NikkeiAsianReview,
October7,2015,http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Total-CEO-eyes-cutting-costs-continuing-Yamal-LNG-project.
67RussiasNovatekCompletesDealtoSellYamalLNGStaketoChinasSilkRoad,Reuters,March15,2016,
http://af.reuters.com/article/commoditiesNews/idAFR4N0ZC01H.
68OlgaMordushenkoandJuriBarsukov,Soporoinasobstvenniesily[Relyingononesownstrength],Kommersant,April30,
2016,http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2978177.
69VasilyKashin,IndustrialCooperation:PathtoConfluenceofRussianandChineseEconomies,ValdaiPapers#4(44),
ValdaiDiscussionClub,March2016,http://valdaiclub.com/files/10377/.
70VladimirKuznetsov,RussianBondsClimbasChinaPurchases$1BillionofRubleDebt,Bloomberg,July9,2015,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-07-09/china-buys-1-billion-of-ruble-debt-as-russia-touts-local-market.
71CharlesClover,WesternSanctionsPushingRussiaTowardsCloserTiesWithChina,FinancialTimes,April17,2016,
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/470d6052-02d7-11e6-99cb-83242733f755.html#axzz46BcotTk9.
72LizMak,ICBCandBankofChinatoHelpUnderwriteRussiasIssuanceofLargestYuan-DenominatedForeignSovereign
Bond,SouthChinaMorningPost,April27,2016,http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/1939043/icbc-and-bank-china-
help-underwrite-russias-issuance-largest-yuan.
73SofiaOkunandSapozhkovOleg.Kitaiskayafinansovayagramota[Chinesefinancialgrammar],Kommersant,October23,
2015,http://www.kommersant.ru/Doc/2838059.
74RussianDebtSaferThanU.S.?SoSaysChinaRatingHouseDagong,Bloomberg,January8,2015,
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-01-08/russian-debt-safer-than-u-s-so-says-china-rating-house-dagong.
75PutinsMay8,2015statementonthisissuecanbeaccessedat:PressStatementsFollowingRussian-ChineseTalks,
OfficialInternetResourcesofthePresidentofRussia,May8,2015,http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/49433.
76UPDATE1ChinaRailwayGroupWins$390MlnRussianHigh-SpeedRailContract,Reuters,May13,2015,
http://www.reuters.com/article/china-russia-idUSL3N0Y44E620150513.
77ChinatoLendOver$6BlnforRussiasMoscowKazanHighSpeedRail,SputnikNews,April29,2016,
http://sputniknews.com/business/20160429/1038854457/railway-money-china-russia.html.
78NataliaSkorlyginaandAnastasiaVedeneeva,YuanidoKazani[RMBtoKazan],Kommersant,May24,2016,
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2995577.
79PavelKantishev,NIIVoskhodzakluchilsoglashenieskitaiskimInspurna$225mln[Voskhodresearchinstitutesignedsigns
dealwithChineseInspurfor$225mln],Vedomosti,October15,2014,
http://www.vedomosti.ru/technology/articles/2014/10/15/voshod-kitajskogo-servera.
80SberbankscorporateannouncementofOctober13,2014,canbeaccessedat:SberbankofRussiaandHuaweiSigna
CollaborationAgreement,pressrelease,Sberbank,October13,2014,http://sberbank.ru/en/press_center/all/article?
newsID=200004787-1-2&blockID=1539&regionID=77&lang=enVTBscorporateannouncementofNovember10,2014,canbe
accessedat:VTBBeginsCollaborationWithHuawei,VTBGroup,November10,2014,
http://www.vtb.com/group/press/news/releases/412003/.
81NataliyaSkorligina,Kabelorangakh[Cableofranks],Kommersant,April28,2015,http://kommersant.ru/doc/2718391.
82VassilyKashin,SellingS-400stoChina:ANewFrontintheColdWar?,CarnegieMoscowCenter,April27,2015,
http://carnegie.ru/2015/04/27/selling-s-400s-to-china-new-front-in-cold-war/ik1m.
83Thesametrendscanbeobservedincross-bordertradein2014and2015,withChinesebordercitieslosingupto90
percentoftheirRussiantourists.InsteadChinesecitizensarecrossingthebordertobuyseeminglycheapRussiangoods,
mostlyagriculturalproducts.In2015,RussianfoodexportstoChinagrewby200percent.
84IvanSafronov,EslimirabotaemvinteresakhKNR,torabotaemvsvoikhinteresakh[IfweworkintheinterestsofthePRC,
weworkinourowninterests],Kommersant,April13,2015,http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2707945.
85RussianArmsExportersTradePortfolioStandsat$48BillionOfficial,TASS,June3,2016,
http://tass.ru/en/defense/879864.
86ChinaMakesAdvancePaymentforS-400AirDefenseSystemDelivery,TASS,March11,2016,
87Kashin,SellingS-400s.
88RussiaInksContractWithChinaonSu-35Deliveries,TASS,November19,2015,http://tass.ru/en/defense/837662.
89VassilyKashin,WhyIsChinaBuyingRussianFighterJets?,CarnegieMoscowCenter,February9,2016,
http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2016/02/09/why-is-china-buying-russian-fighter-jets-su-35/itoe.
90ZacharyKeck,RussiaMaySellChinaNewAdvancedSubmarines,Diplomat,March28,2014,
http://thediplomat.com/2014/03/russia-may-sell-china-new-advanced-submarines/.
91Kashin,IndustrialCooperation.
92Thetextofthejointstatementcanbeaccessedat:SovmestnoyezayavleniyeRossiisoiFederaziiiKitaiskoiNarodnoi
RespublikiosotrudnichestveposopryazheniyustroitrlstvaEvraziiskogoEkonomicheskogosoyuzaiEkonomicheskogopoyasa
Shelkovogoputi[JointstatementoftheRussianFederationandPeoplesRepublicofChinaoncopperationonthe
constructionofJointEurasianEconomicUnionandtheSilkRoadProjects],OfficialInternetResourcesofthePresidentof
Russia,March8,2015,http://kremlin.ru/supplement/4971.
93FengYujun,GeoeconomicsinEurasia:AViewFromChina,November2015.
94AndreyKnyazev,Kart-blansh:KitaypristupaetksozdaniyuvoennogoalyansavZentralnoyAzii[Carte-blanche:Chinato
createamilitaryallianceinCentralAsia],NezavisimayaGazeta,March15,2016,http://www.ng.ru/world/2016-03-
15/3_kartblansh.html.
95TatyanaBaykoba,KitaytesnitRossiyuvZentralnoyAzii[ChinaisjostlingRussiainCentralAsia],Izvestia,March16,2016,
http://izvestia.ru/news/606469.
96RemarksbyVictorVekselberg,oneoftherichestmeninRussia,areillustrative.Therewasacertainlevelofoptimism
regardingChinesecompanies.ItwasthoughttheywerecomingtotheRussianmarkettospendbigmoney.ButtheChinese
turnedouttobeveryrationalandverygoodbusinesspeople,sotheywouldntgivemoneyawayfornothing,hesaidata
March2016businessconferenceinMoscow.Seemorein:AlexanderGabuev,APivottoNowhere:TheRealitiesofRussias
AsiaPolicy,CarnegieMoscowCenter,April22,2016,http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2016/04/22/pivot-to-nowhere-realities-of-
russia-s-asia-policy/ixfw.
From: rumereugene@gmail.com
Senttime: 07/06/201610:30:27PM
To: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.comChrisBort<chrisjb1@ucia.gov>
Subject: Re:RussiaandtheSecurityofEurope-CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace
Thanks.Hollerifsomethingoutrageous.Bobwillprobablyfindsomething.
SentfrommyiPad
OnJul7,2016,at3:10AM,ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>wrote:
Apologiesifyouvealreadyseenthis...
http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/06/30/russia-and-security-of-europe-pub-63990
RussiaandtheSecurityofEurope
RussiasannexationofCrimeainMarch2014wasthelateststepinMoscowslongprocessofrejectionofthe
postColdWarEuro-Atlanticsecurityorder,reflectingadeeplyheldviewthatisunlikelytochangeanytime
soon.WesternstrategywillneedtoadjusttoRussiasconceptionofitsinterestsandprioritiesinandaround
Europe.
TheReturnofGeopolitics
Russianelitesareguidedbyadeep-seatedsenseofvulnerabilityvis--vistheWestandfearWestern
encroachmentonthecountryssecurity,economic,andgeopoliticalinterests,aswellasontheirholdon
powerinRussia.
Theperceptionofvulnerabilityvis--vistheWestincludeseveryaspectofRussiaseconomy,politics,and
defense.ItisreinforcedbyRussianelitesconcernsabouttheinternalweaknessofthecountryandits
direction.Italsoservesasatoolfortheelitestomobilizethepopulationinthefaceofexternalthreats.The
elitesrecognizethatthecountryisinasystemiccrisisbutfearthatsolutionscouldprovedestabilizing.
ThelackofconfidenceintheirdefensecapabilitieshasledRussianmilitaryexpertstoconsiderstrategies
forearlynuclearescalationasadeterrentandcountermeasuretotheWestsperceivedconventional
superiority.TheWestsplansforimprovingconventionalcapabilitiesandmissiledefensesareeroding
Russianmilitaryplannersconfidenceintheirnucleardeterrent.
AsseenbyRussiasnationalsecurityestablishmentandpoliticalelites,thesecurityenvironmentalongthe
peripheryofRussiaisprecariousandaddstotheinternalchallengesfacingthecountry.Russianplanners
arebeingconfrontedwitharegionrifewithinstability,localconflicts,andforeignpowerstheyviewas
competingwithoropenlyhostiletoRussiaineverystrategicdirection.
Inthisenvironment,Russiaisresortingtoanarrayoftoolsfromnuclearsaberrattlingtointimidationof
smaller,weakerneighborstoinformationwarfare,cyberoperations,subversion,bribery,andotherpolitical
andeconomicmeasuresasmeansofhybridwarfareorcontinuationofpoliticsbyallavailablemeans.
ImplicationsforWesternPolicy
TheexperiencesofUkraineandGeorgiahaveprofoundimplicationsfornotonlythosecountriesbutalso
Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,andMoldova.LackingtheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizations(NATOs)
securityguarantee,thesesixbattlegroundstatesremaininwhatMoscowperceivesasitssphereof
privilegedinterests.Itispreparedtousemilitaryforcetokeeptheminit.AstheWestisnotpreparedto
consignthesestatestotheRussiansphere,theybecomethearenaforEast-Westcompetition.
Russianactionsbefore,during,andsincetheaggressionagainstUkrainesuggestthatMoscowstilltakes
NATOsArticle5securityguaranteeofitsmembersseriously,andthatitisnotpreparedtotestthat
guaranteedirectly.RussianleaderswenttowartwicetopreventGeorgiaandUkrainefromeventually
astheysawitjoiningNATO.RatherthanchallengeNATOdirectly,Moscowwillcontinuetorelyonits
widearrayofhybridwarfaremethodstounderminememberstatesconfidenceinthealliance.
Westernpolicymakersshouldhavenoillusionsthatthebuildupofdefenseanddeterrentcapabilitiesinthe
frontlinestateswillhaveastabilizingeffectonthestandoffbetweenNATOandRussia.NATOsactionsin
theaftermathoftheUkrainecrisis,intendedtoshoreupthefrontlinestates,havetriggered
disproportionateRussianresponses,includingdeploymentofanti-accessandarea-denial(A2/AD)
capabilitiestoCrimeaandKaliningradaswellasthreatstodeploynuclearweaponsthere.
AbsentmajorchangesinRussias(orNATOs)outlook,thisadversarialrelationshipwillremainakey
featureoftheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderfortheforeseeablefuture.Eventually,itwilltakeapolitical,not
amilitary,solutiontoresolvethisstandoff.
Introduction
TheannexationofCrimeabyRussiainMarch2014andtheundeclaredwaragainstUkrainethatfollowed
markedtheendofthepostColdWarperiodinEuropeanhistory.Russianactionshavedestroyedkeyelements
ofboththepostColdWarsecuritysystemandthepostWorldWarIIsecuritysysteminEuropethathad
survivedfornearlythree-quartersofacentury.ThedamagedonebyRussianactionsisdeepandlasting,with
pre-andpost-UkraineembodyingacleardividinglineinEuropeansecurityaffairs.Anewgeopoliticaldivisionof
Europehasemergedaswell.PuttingthepiecesbacktogetherinUkraineandshoringupaunitedEuropewill
stretchU.S.capabilities.ThesetwinchallengeswillremainastrategicimperativeforU.S.policymakersabsenta
majorshiftinRussianpositionswithrespecttoEuropeansecurityahighlyunlikelyoccurrencewithoutachange
inthecountrysleadershipandgoverningideology.
RussianactionsinUkraineandelsewhereinEuropehaveshockedbothEuropeanandU.S.nationalsecurityand
foreignpolicyestablishments.Few,ifany,analystsoneithersideoftheAtlantichadpredictedthatMoscow
wouldmovetodestroywhatwasenvisionedattheendoftheColdWarasEuropewhole,free,andatpeace
withitselfanditsneighbors.1RussianactionsagainstUkrainecameasasurpriseevenformanyseasoned
Russianforeignpolicyobservers.2ThedecisiontoseizeandsubsequentlyannexCrimeaandtolaunchthewarin
easternUkraineinsupportofRussian-inspiredseparatistswasmostlikelypartofaspontaneous,panicky
responsebyMoscowtotherapidlychangingpoliticalenvironmentinUkraineratherthananelementofalong-
term,well-thought-out,deliberatestrategy.3
However,acarefulexaminationofRussiasownnarrativeaboutEuropeanandEurasiansecurity,andits
evolutionsincetheendoftheColdWar,suggeststhatRussianactionsinUkrainewereentirelylogical,perhaps
eveninevitable,asanextensionofRussianthreatperceptions.AsseenfromMoscow,therapidchangesin
UkrainianpoliticsthecollapseofthepresidencyofViktorYanukovychandthecomingtopowerofapolitical
coalitionadvocatingUkrainespro-EuropeanandEuro-Atlanticorientation,includingeventualmembershipinthe
EuropeanUnion(EU)andtheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)carriedwiththemprofound
geopoliticalconsequencesforRussia:theysignaledtheemergenceofnewthreatstoRussiassecurityrightatits
doorstep,threatsthatnoRussianleaderislikelytotoleratewithoutawholesalechangeinthecountrysideology
andunderstandingofitsnationalsecurity.
FromMoscowsperspective,itsactionsinUkrainerepresentedquintessentiallyaseriesofnecessarydefensive,
ratherthanoffensiveandexpansionist,measuresthatwereintendedtopreventanevenmoreseveregeopolitical
imbalanceonthecontinentresultingfromNATOandEUexpansionintoCentralandEasternEurope.Attheroot
oftheseactionswasasenseofvulnerabilityratherthanconfidenceinMoscowsrelationswiththeWest.
Ironically,thesecurityenvironmentaroundtheperipheryofRussiathathasemergedasaresultoftheannexation
ofCrimeaandthesubsequentaggressionagainstUkraineundoubtedlyleavesRussianmilitaryplannerswitha
greatersenseofvulnerability.
EuropeWhole,Free,andatPeaceWithItselfandItsNeighbors?
ThepeacefulendoftheColdWaranddissolutionoftheSovietUnionin1991signaledthedawnofanewerain
Europeansecurity.Aftertheideologicalandmilitarystandoffthathaddividedthecontinentformorethanfour
decades,EuropeincludingRussiawascomingtogetheronthebasisofanewvision,embracedbyallasthe
foundationforanewsecurityorder.
Thatsecurityorder,describedbyWesternleadersasEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfandits
neighbors,wouldnotrelyonsuchfamiliarconceptsasbalanceofpowerorbalanceofintereststomaintain
peaceonthecontinent.ItwouldinsteadrelyonallEuropeannationsincludingRussiamaintaininga
commitmenttosharedvaluesandadherencetoasetofkeyprinciplestoguidetheirforeignandsecuritypolicies.
Theseprincipleswererespectingtheindependence,sovereignty,andterritorialintegrityofallnationsrefraining
fromusingforcetosettleinternationaldisputesallowingfreedomofchoicebyallstatestopursuetheirforeign
policiesandenterintoalliancesanddemonstratingrespectforfundamentalhumanrightsandpersonalfreedoms
instatesdomesticpoliticalarrangements.
NoneofthesecommitmentsundertakenbyallEuropeannationsincludingRussiawerenew.Theyhadtheir
antecedentsintheUnitedNations(UN)charterattheendofWorldWarII,aswellasmorerecentlyinthe1975
HelsinkiFinalAct.4Asiftounderscoretheircommitmentsandrenewthemforthenewera,theheadsofstateor
governmentofallEuropeannations,Canada,andtheUnitedStatescametogetherin1990tosigntheCharterof
ParisforaNewEurope.5Inthatdocument,theywelcomedtheneweraofdemocracy,peaceandunityin
Europeand,amongotherthings,pledgedtosettledisputesbypeacefulmeansanddefenddemocratic
institutionsagainstactivitieswhichviolatetheindependence,sovereignequalityorterritorialintegrityofthe
participatingStates.
TheCharterofPariswasjoinedbytheSovietUnion,whosecommitmentswereassumedbyRussiauponits
dissolutionin1991.UkraineandotherformerSovietstatesalsojoinedtheOrganizationforSecurityand
CooperationinEurope,whichwasestablishedtoimplementthevisionoftheCharterofParis.
AnothermajorstepintheevolutionofEuropewasthesigningin1992oftheMaastrichtTreaty.6Itwasa
milestoneintheprocessofEuropeanintegrationalsoonthebasisofsharedvaluesthattransformedthe
EuropeanCommunityintotheEuropeanUnion.TheEUwouldpursuethegoalsofpromotingandstrengthening
democraticinstitutions,establishingamonetaryunion,anddevelopingacommonforeignandsecuritypolicy.
TheSovietUnionandsubsequentlyRussiaplayedessentialrolesinthistransformationoftheEuropeansecurity
landscape,havingconsentedtoshedtheouterandinnerempirespeacefullyinthelate1980sandearly1990s.
Atthetime,boththeSovietgovernmentandthegovernmentofthenewRussianstatedeclaredand
demonstratedindeedtheircommitmenttoupholdtheunderlyingprinciplesofEuropeansecurityandstability.
EarlySignsofTrouble
However,whiletherestofthecontinentcelebratedthedawnofanewpeacefulandharmoniouserainEuropean
historyandembracedthevisionofEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors,Russiawas
havingsecondthoughts.TheideaofaEuropeansecuritysystembasedonavagueconceptofsharedvaluesdid
notsitwellwiththeRussianforeignpolicyandsecurityestablishment.Thus,speakingataforeignministry
conferencedevotedtoadiscussionofanewforeignpolicyconceptoftheRussianFederation,thenforeign
ministerAndreyKozyrevdeclaredthatRussiamustbecomeanormalgreatpower.7Thechairmanofthe
ForeignAffairsCommitteeoftheRussianDuma,YevgeniyAmbartsumov,welcomedtheforeignministers
proposalandwentfurther,declaringthatthetimehadcometoabandonidealisticdeclarationsinfavorof
realpolitik.8
AlthoughtheRussiangovernmentwaspreoccupiedatthetimewithaseeminglyendlesssuccessionofdomestic
crisesthatfollowedthedissolutionoftheSovietUnion,includingacollapsingeconomyandfiercepolitical
struggleintheRussianparliament,wherethereformagendaranintostrongopposition,theRussianforeignpolicy
establishmentarticulatedamoreambitiousvisionofthestatesintereststhanthedirestateofRussiasdomestic
politicsandeconomymighthavesuggested.Insharpcontrasttohisearlierconciliatorystatements,
AmbartsumovexplicitlylaidclaimtoRussiasspecialrights,evenresponsibilities,throughouttheterritoriesofthe
formerSovietstatesandsuggestedthatRussianintereststranscendedthebordersofthesenewlyindependent
states.9SergeyKaraganov,aleadingforeignpolicyscholarandfounderoftheCouncilonForeignandDefense
Policy,wroteinasimilarveinthatRussiahadnotjustasetofinterests,butaspecialmissionaheavycrossto
bearintheterritoriesoftheformerSovietUnion.10
RussiahadinheriteditsnationalsecurityestablishmentfromtheSovietUnion.Ambartsumov,Kozyrev,and
Karaganovrepresentedanewgenerationofforeignpolicythinkersandpractitionerswithrelativelyprogressive
attitudeswhocouldhavebeenexpectedtoholdmoreenlightenedviewsonrelationswithneighboringstatesand
thepostColdWarsecurityarrangementsinEurope.ButtheRussianmilitary,securityservices,anddiplomatic
establishmentwereallproductsoftheColdWarinwhichmistrustoftheWestwasdeepandnoteasilyovercome
bydeclarationsofpeacefulintentionsbyEuropeanandU.S.leaders.11
TheseearlysignalsthatsharedvaluesmaynotbesufficientforRussiaasthebasisforEuropeansecurityand
stabilitycouldhaveremainedalargelyinconsequentialdiscourseintherelativelynarrowandself-contained
communityofRussianforeignpolicyexperts.Foreignpolicyinthe1990stookabackseattodomesticaffairs,
especiallytheeconomy,whichwasthedominantconcernofthecountryselitesandthegeneralpublic.However,
thedebatewasbroughttotheforeofRussiandomesticpoliticsandEuropeandiscussionsaboutthecontinents
securityarchitecturebytwocriticallyimportantprocesses:enlargementoftheEUandNATO.
Thefirstmajorencountersignalingfuturetroublestookplacein1993.DuringanAugustmeetingwiththenPolish
presidentLechWasainWarsaw,thenRussianpresidentBorisYeltsininawrittenstatementexpressedhis
understandingofPolandsdesiretojoinNATO.12Kozyrevreportedlyechoedthatsentimentdespitehaving
beenopposedtotheideapreviously.However,justafewweekslater,inOctober1993,theRussianpresident
sentalettertothenU.S.presidentBillClintonstatinghisstrongoppositiontomembershipinthealliancefor
PolandoranyotherCentralorEasternEuropeancountry.13Yeltsinsapparentchangeofpositionwasreportedly
duetopressurefromtheRussianmilitaryestablishment,whichstillconsideredNATOathreat.14
ThelaunchofanactivediscussioninEuropeandtheUnitedStatesaboutNATOenlargementtransformedthe
initialcracksintheEuropeansecuritylandscapeintoamajordividebetweenRussiaandmostoftherestof
Europe.NATOalliesandaspirantsmaintainedthatexpandingthealliancewasintendednotasahostilestep
againstRussia,butthatbringingthezoneofstabilityandsecurityclosertoRussiasborderwouldonlybenefit
Moscow.Russiancounterargumentswerepreciselytheopposite,stressingthemilitarycapabilitiesthatNATO
expansionwouldinevitablybringclosertoRussianborders.(SeeRussiangovernmentthinktankmapsshowing
NATOenlargementinfigures1and2.)
<Figure_1_NATO_19902.jpg>
<Figure_2_NATO_Post20141.jpg>
RussianoppositiontoNATOenlargementwassharedbypoliticiansacrossthepoliticalspectrum.The
conservativewingofRussianpoliticsrepresentedbythenationalistsandtheCommunistsopposedthealliances
expansionforgeopoliticalandideologicalreasons.Theliberalsandreformersopposeditbecausetheysawitas
damagingtotheiralreadytenuouspositioninRussiandomesticpolitics,vulnerabletocriticismfromopponents
whoaccusedthemofbetrayingRussiannationalinterestandbeingagentsoftheWest.15
Thevalues-basedapproachtoEuropeansecuritywasfailingtogetrecognitioninRussiaforseveralreasons:
afternearlythree-quartersofacenturyunderanideologicallydrivenandfailedregime,thepopulationhadlittle
confidenceinideasingeneralthismistrustwasreinforcedbythenewRussiangovernmentsfailuretodeliverand
demonstratetothepublicthetangiblebenefitsofthenewrulingideologyofthemarketanddemocracy,asthe
countrylimpedfromonecrisistothenext.
AfterbeingcutofffromWesternpoliticalsciencefordecades,Russianinternationalrelationsscholarswere
avidlyabsorbingideasputforthbyleadingWesternpoliticalscientists.Themostprominentamongthemwere
SamuelHuntingtonandZbigniewBrzezinski,whosebooksTheClashofCivilizationsandtheRemakingof
WorldOrderandTheGrandChessboardrespectivelyapproachedcontemporaryinternationalrelationsfrom
pointsofviewthatrejectedtheveryideaofavalues-basedsecuritysysteminEuropeandEurasia.16
Huntingtonsvolume,asthetitlesuggests,predictedaconflictpittingWesterncivilizationanditsliberalideology
againstothercivilizationsguidedbyotherideas.BrzezinskiarguedthatitwasimportantfortheUnitedStatesto
preventanothermajorpowerreadRussiafromdominatingtheEurasianlandmass.
TheRussiangovernmentvehementlyopposedNATOs
interventioninYugoslaviaas,amongotherreasons,apotential
precedentforsimilaractionbyNATOinRussiaoraroundits
periphery.18
InlightofthesetwobooksbyleadingAmericanforeignpolicythinkerswidelyregardedinRussiaasspeakingfor
Washingtonsforeignpolicyestablishment,itwaseasyforRussianforeignandnationalsecuritypolicymakers,
manyofthemproductsoftheColdWar,tobeskepticalofU.S.andalliesreassurancesaboutvalues-based
securityarrangementsforEuropeandEurasia.WhiletheideaofNATOextendingitsmembershipbeyond
Europewasnotbroughtupeveninthemostambitiousdiscussionsofthealliancesfutureatthetime,NATOdid
extenditsreachintoCentralAsiathroughitsPartnershipforPeaceprogram.17Thatcouldhavebeeninterpreted
byRussianmilitaryplannersasamaneuvertoencircleRussia,notwithstandingthefactthatRussiaitselfhad
joinedthePartnershipforPeace.
AnotherfactorshapingRussianthreatperceptionswithrespecttoNATOandEuropeansecuritywastheconflict
intheformerYugoslavia.ForRussia,stillreelingfromthedissolutionoftheSovietUnionandstrugglingto
overcomemultiplepoliticalandeconomicchallenges,theviolentbreakupofYugoslaviawasacontinuing
reminderofthedangersithadbarelyescaped.TheRussiangovernmentvehementlyopposedNATOs
interventioninYugoslaviaas,amongotherreasons,apotentialprecedentforsimilaractionbyNATOinRussia
orarounditsperiphery.18TheRussianmilitarysbrutaltacticsduringthe19941996warinChechnyadrew
widespreadcondemnationfromtheWest.ThepossibilityofaNATOinterventioninthebreakawayrepublic,no
matterhowimprobabletomostseasonedobservers,wasnonethelesswidelydiscussedinRussia.19
TheargumentputforthbytheWestthatNATOsinterventioninYugoslaviawasmotivatedbyhumanitarian
considerationsonlyreinforcedRussianoppositiontothecampaignandresistancetoNATOsenlargement.From
thestandpointofRussiannationalsecurityplanners,theextraditionandtrialoftheformerYugoslavstrongman
SlobodanMiloeviundoubtedlyservedasareminderthatatsomefuturetimeaweakenedRussiangovernment
couldbeforcedtosurrendertheleadersofthemilitarycampaigninChechnyaandthattheywouldfind
themselvesontrialforwarcrimesbeforeaninternationaltribunal.20
FromthestandpointofRussiannationalsecurityplanners,theonlyguaranteeagainstsucheventswasthevast
nucleararsenalRussiahadinheritedfromtheSovietUnion.Russiannationalsecuritydocumentsfromthe1990s
onwardhavestressedtheuniqueroleofnuclearweaponsastheultimateperhapseventheonlyguaranteeof
Russiansovereigntyandstrategicindependence.21
ButalthoughnuclearweaponswereindispensableasaguaranteeagainstWesterninterventioninRussia,they
werefarlessusefulwhenitcametointerveningincrisesbeyondRussiasbordersandprojectingMoscows
interestsbeyondtheborders.ThenucleararsenalwasoflittleusewhenitcametodeterringNATOenlargement
everclosertoRussianbordersandsecuringasphereofinfluenceforRussiaarounditsperipheryalong-
standingRussianobjectivearticulatedasearlyas1992byleadingRussianforeignpolicythinkersand
practitioners.Forthat,Russiawouldhavetorebuilditsconventionalcapabilities,whichinturnwouldrequirea
commitmentofsignificanteconomicresources.
AStrongWarning
Duringthefirstdecadeofthetwenty-firstcentury,Russiaenjoyedamajoreconomicrebound.Inthedecade
fromthefinancialcollapseof1998totheendofVladimirPutinssecondpresidentialtermin2008,Russiangross
domesticproduct(GDP)grewfromjustunder$300billiontonearly$1.7trillionincurrentprices.22Asthe
economyreboundedanddomesticpoliticsstabilized,theRussiangovernmentassumedafarmoreprominent
positionintheinternationalarenathanduringthe1990s.Russiabecameafull-fledgedmemberoftheG8
industrializedeconomiesandasserteditselfasastrongandindependentvoiceonmajorissues,fromEuropean
securitytothewarinIraq.
ThemostnotableandforcefulstatementonforeignandsecuritypolicyfromthatperiodcamefromPutin
personally,deliveredattheMunichSecurityConferencein2007.Thespeech,describedbysomeinthe
audienceasColdWarlike,clearlylaidoutRussianrejectionofthepostColdWarsecurityorderinEurope.23
TheRussianpresidentcharacterizedNATOenlargementasaprovocativeunilaterallandgrabbytheU.S.-led
allianceseekingtoexpanditssphereofinfluence.InputtingitsmilitaryforcesrightuptoRussiasborder,Putin
said,NATOwasinviolationofassurancesgiventoRussiaattheendoftheColdWar.Thisunilateral,unipolar,
U.S.-centricsecuritymodel,heconcluded,wasunacceptable.
Moreover,accordingtothenarrativewidelyheldinRussiasnationalsecurityestablishment,NATOenlargement
wasnotonlyalandgrabthatupsetthegeopoliticalbalanceinEurope,butitalsoconstitutedaviolationof
assurancesgivenbyWesternleaderstothenSovietpresidentMikhailGorbachevthatinexchangeforGermanys
reunificationandNATOmembership,thealliancewouldnotexpandeastward.24Thenatureofthisclaimhas
beenrepeatedlydisputed.25Anddocumentaryevidencetosupportithasbeenambiguousatbesttosay
nothingofitspracticalirrelevance,fornobody,notevenRussianofficials,proposestoundoNATOenlargement.
Still,theideathattheWestbrokeitspromisehasbecomeanintegralpartofRussiandiscussionsaboutpost
ColdWarsecurityinEurope.
TheRussianpresidentcharacterizedNATOenlargementasa
provocativeunilaterallandgrabbytheU.S.-ledalliance
seekingtoexpanditssphereofinfluence.
RussianleadersopposedEuropespostColdWarsecurityorderalsoonideologicalgrounds.Theycriticized
U.S.andEuropeaneffortstopromotedemocracyaroundtheperipheryofRussiaasathinlydisguisedpursuitof
theWestsexpandedsphereofinfluence.26Theyalsoviewedtheeffortsasadeeplydestabilizingundertaking
thatthreatenedthestabilityandsecurityofneighboringstatesandevenheldoutthepossibilityofundermining
Russiasownhard-wondomesticstability.Beyondthat,thepushbytheWesttopromotedemocracyinside
RussiawasdeclaredbyRussianleadersasaviolationofRussiansovereigntyandpotentiallydestabilizingand
deeplythreateningtothePutinadministrationitself.
AsRussiasowndomesticpoliticstookonamoreauthoritarianturnandPutinconsolidatedmorepower,he
cameundercriticismfromWesternleaders.27CombinedwithenthusiasticWesternexpressionsofsupportforthe
RoseRevolutioninGeorgiain2003andtheOrangeRevolutioninUkrainein20042005bothcrisesinwhich
RussiaandtheWestwerepittedagainsteachotherthroughproxyfactionstheWestssupportfordemocracy
throughtheever-expandingreachoftheEUandNATOemergedasthemostcontentiousissueinrelationswith
Russia.BuildingonthemajorthemeofhisMunichaddress,PutindeliveredafurtherwarningtoNATOatthe
alliances2008Bucharestsummit.NATOspromiseoffuturemembershiptoGeorgiaandUkraine,hesaid,
constitutedadirectthreattoRussiansecurity.Inanominouspreviewoffutureevents,hespokeofthehistoric
tiesbetweenRussiaandtheethnicRussianpopulationsofeasternUkraineandCrimeaandthepopulations
desireforclosetieswiththemotherland.28
AsiftheRussianpresidentstwowarningswerenotenough,thewarwithGeorgiain2008sentafurther
messagetotheWest,aswellastoRussiasneighbors,thatPutinmeantwhathesaid.InastatementonRussian
televisionintheimmediateaftermathofthewarinGeorgia,thenpresidentDmitryMedvedevdeclaredcountries
aroundRussiasperipheryasasphereofRussiasprivilegedinterests.29NostatementdeliveredbyaRussian
leaderpriortothewarof2008hadsignaledwithgreaterclarityMoscowsrejectionofavalues-basedsecurity
systeminEurope.Medvedevwoulddividethecontinentintospheresofinterestsandinfluence,andhewasfully
committedtodefendRussiasspherefromencroachmentbyotherpowers.
ThewarinGeorgiadeliveredtwoverydistinctmessagestotwodifferentaudiences.TotheWest,themessage
wastostayoutofthesphereofRussiasprivilegedinterests.ToRussia,themessagewasthatdespitethe
successfulcampaignagainstitstinyneighbor,theRussianmilitarywasinneedoffar-reachingreform.30Russia
neededthecapabilitybeyonditsnucleararsenaltodefenditsinterestsanddeterthosewhomightconsider
infringingonthem.ThemilitaryreformlaunchedintheaftermathofthewarinGeorgiaandaprogramofmilitary
modernizationwereintendedtogiveRussiathecapabilitytodojustthat.31
TheBreak
The20082012interregnumbetweenPutinssecondandthirdtermsaspresidentwasaperiodofrelativecalm
inRussiasrelationswiththeWest.CombinedwiththeresetwithRussiabeginningin2009bytheadministration
ofU.S.PresidentBarackObama,otherimperativesthewarinAfghanistan,Iransnuclearprogram,thecrisis
inLibyatookprecedenceoverNATOenlargement.Atthesametime,newlylauncheddebatesinsideRussia
aboutdomesticpoliticalandeconomicmodernizationheldouttheprospectofRussiareturningtothepathof
democratizationandamorecooperativerelationshipwiththeWest.32Inaddition,NATOlackedthenecessary
consensustopushforGeorgiasmembershipintheallianceintheaftermathofthewarof2008.Andin2010,
UkraineremovedNATOmembershipfromitslistofnationalsecurityprioritiesaltogether.33
ThecalmwasbrokenbydevelopmentsinsideRussia.PutinsdecisiontoreclaimthepresidencyfromMedvedev
wasmetwithlarge-scaleprotestsunprecedentedinthehistoryofmodernRussiabyproponentsoffurther
politicalandeconomicreformsthathadbeendebatedduringMedvedevspresidency.34Theprotestswere
greetedintheWestasamanifestationofRussiasdemocraticspiritandpoliticalreawakening.35
TheresponsefromthePutinadministrationwasharsh.Itincludedaseriesofnewlegislativestepstolimitthe
Russianpublicsspaceforpoliticalprotestscourtactionsagainstprotestersandamediacampaignaccusingthe
WestofinstigatingprotestsinRussiatoundermineandweakenit.36TheWestwaspromotinginRussiavalues
thatwerealientoRussiansociety,theKremlincharged,embracingthesloganRussiaisnotEurope.37Putins
thirdtermbeganwithaclearjuxtapositionofRussiavs.theWestasaconflictdrivenbydifferentvaluessystems.
TwodecadesaftersigningontothevisionofEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors,
Russiafinallyabandonedit.
PutinsthirdtermbeganwithaclearjuxtapositionofRussia
vs.theWestasaconflictdrivenbydifferentvaluessystems.
ThisbreakalsomanifesteditselfinRussianforeignpolicy,particularlyinrelationswiththeformerSovietstates.
BuildingonearlierRussianpronouncementsaboutasphereofinfluenceandinterests,andthedangerposedby
theWestsgeopoliticalexpansion,PutinelevatedEurasianintegrationthegatheringoftheformerSovietstates
aroundRussiatothetopofhisforeignpolicyagendaforhisthirdterm.38BuildingontheRussia-Kazakhstan-
Belaruscustomsunionestablishedin2000,PutinproposedtomovetowardaCommonEconomicSpace,
eventuallyproceedingtoapoliticalEurasianunion,allvaguelypatternedontheEUandrathertransparently
intendedtocreatearegionalcounterweighttoit.InPutinswords,theEurasianunionwouldbecomeapowerful
supranationalassociationcapableofbecomingoneofthepolesinthemodernworldareferencetothelong-
standingRussianpreferenceforamultipolarinternationalsystemandrejectionoftheU.S.-dominatedunipolar
world.39
PutinspolicyofEurasianintegrationstoodindirectconflictwiththeEUsEuropeanNeighborhoodPolicy,which
isintendedtobringcountriesontheEUseasternbordersclosertoitbyofferingthemAssociation
Agreements.40Theseagreementsaredesignedtopromotepolitical,economic,andrule-of-lawreformsin
countriesofEasternEuropeandencouragetheircloserpoliticalandcommercialtiestotheEU.SeveralEastern
EuropeancountriesArmenia,Georgia,Moldova,andUkrainewereintheprocessofnegotiatingAssociation
AgreementswiththeEUwhenPutinannouncedhisvisionofEurasianintegration.Ukrainewasthelargestamong
themandstrategicallythemostimportantforRussia.
ThegovernmentofUkrainethesecondmostpopulousformerSovietrepublicandthecriticalbridgebetween
RussiaandEuropewasengagedintwosimultaneousnegotiations.OnewaswithRussiaaboutjoiningits
economicintegrationprojecttheotherwaswiththeEUaboutanAssociationAgreement.Withthetwodeemed
incompatible,Kyivwouldeventuallyhavetochooseoneortheother.41
ForRussia,forPutinpersonally,thelossofUkrainetotheEUwouldnotbeatolerableoutcome.Thiswasdue
toseveralreasons.In2004,PutinscandidateforthepresidencyofUkraine,ViktorYanukovych,wasdefeated
bytheOrangeRevolutionencouragedbytheWest.AnotherdefeatofsimilarmagnitudeatthehandsoftheEU
wasnotanoptionfortheRussianpresidentafterhehadelevatedEurasianintegrationtothetopofhispolicy
agendaasacounterweighttotheUnitedStatesandtheEU.
Moreover,allformerSovietsatellitesthathadjoinedtheEUalsojoinedNATO.UkrainesAssociation
AgreementwiththeEUwasundoubtedlyseenbytheKremlinasasteptowardmembershipintheEUand,
eventually,inNATO.ThiswouldallowNATOspresencewithin300milesofMoscow.AsseenfromMoscow,
thiswouldalsomeanthatkeyUkrainiandefenseenterprisesthatsuppliedtheRussianmilitarywithcritical
componentswouldbelocatedonNATOterritory.42
AnothersignificantdependenceofRussiaonUkrainehastodowithenergysuppliestoEurope.Ukraineisthe
criticaltransitcountry,withasmuchashalfofRussiangasexportedtoEuropedeliveredthroughtheDruzhba
pipelinethatcrossesUkraine.43U.S.andEuropeanleadershavelongcomplainedaboutEuropesdependence
onRussiangasandtheinfluenceitgivesMoscowoverthecontinent.SomehavearguedforNATOtotakeon
themissionofsecuringEuropesenergysupply.44ForRussia,theprospectofUkrainejoiningNATOor
becomingasatelliteoftheEUwouldtranslateintoanunacceptablelossofpowerandinfluence.
Notwithstandingallthesestrategicconsiderations,thecrisisinUkraineapparentlycameasasurpriseforthe
Kremlin.45TheseverityofitsresponsetothecrisistheannexationofCrimea,thewarineasternUkraine,the
virulentpoliticalpropagandacampaignagainstthenewgovernmentofUkraineandtheWestforsupportingit,
andthedestructionoftheentirepostColdWarEuropeansecuritysystemreflecttheperceptionsofthreat
associatedbyRussiannationalsecurityelitewiththepotentiallossofUkrainetoNATOandtheEU.
TheNewOldThreat
TheshockwavesinEurope,intheUnitedStates,andaroundtheperipheryofRussiafromRussianactionsin
Ukraine(andsubsequentlyinSyria)haveamountedtoafundamentalreassessmentofRussia,itsmilitary
capabilities,anditsresolvetousethem.46TheperceptionofRussiaasasecond-ratepower,whosemilitary
capabilitieswerebadlydamagedbytheimplosionoftheSovietstateandneverrecovered,hasbeenreplaced
withnewlyalarmedassessmentsoftheRussianmilitarythreatnotseenbyWesternpublicsinageneration.47
EventheRussianNavy,longwrittenofffordeadasapresenceinthehighseas,isthesubjectofanew,widely
publicizedreportbytheU.S.OfficeofNavalIntelligence.48
Indeed,theswiftandapparentlyefficienttakeoverofCrimea,themilitaryinterventionandcovertoperationin
easternUkraine,andmostrecentlythemissioninSyriahavehadatransformationaleffectontheimageofthe
Russianmilitaryabroadandathome.However,withtheseaccomplishmentsonandoffthebattlefieldcamea
seriesofsoberingRussianreassessmentsofthenewsecurityenvironmentsurroundingRussiainpost-postCold
WarEuropeandEurasia.
Paradoxically,Russianmilitarysuccesseshaveresultedinnewthreatsandnewchallenges,andtheyhave
generatedaprofoundfeelingofuneaseamongRussianmilitaryexperts.Threatassessmentsfoundinofficial
Russiandocuments,statementsoftopofficials,andprivate-sectorcommentatorsdescribeauniformlybleak
picture.Inthewordsofoneauthoritativeobserver,Europesfailuretosecureitselfbehindabufferzone
establishedwiththehelpoftheEUsEasternPartnership,whichincludesArmenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia,
Moldova,andUkraine,hasmeantthatRussiacannothidebehindabufferzoneeither.49Russiacannolonger
countonthesecountriesasfriendlyandcapableofshieldingRussiaswesternandsouthernborders.
ThebreakinrelationswiththeWestNATOscontinuingplansforexpansion,itssupportforUkraine,itsmilitary
deploymentsalongitsEasternflankandplansformoresuchdeployments,anditslong-standingnuclearthreatto
RussiaandcentersforcybersecurityandinformationwarfareintheBalticstatesmakeupthenewthreat
environmentRussiandefenseplannersarehavingtoconfront.Andthatisnoteventhecompletelist,whichomits
awiderangeofrealandpotentialthreatsfromtheself-proclaimedIslamicStatespresenceinIraqandSyriato
JapansnewlegislationgoverningtheuseofitsSelf-DefenseForcesabroad.Thisisthenewthreatenvironment
inwhichthearmedforcesoftheRussianstatehavetocarryouttheirmissionofdefendingandprotectingthe
sovereigntyoftheRussianstate,notedDefenseMinisterSergeiShoigu,appearingbeforetheyear-endmeeting
ofseniorMinistryofDefenseofficialsattendedbyPutin.50
ThenewNationalSecurityStrategythatPutinsignedintolawonDecember31,2015,echoedmanyofthesame
themes.51ThedocumentidentifiedtheUnitedStatesanditsalliesastheprincipalthreattoRussia,astheWest
seekstohangontoitsdominantpositionintheworld.NATOenlargementcontinuesapace,withthealliance
aspiringtoaglobalmission.NATO,accordingtothenewdocument,underminesinternationalsecurity,
internationallaw,andarms-controltreatiesacquiresnewmilitarycapabilitiesanddeploysitsmilitary
infrastructureeverclosertotheterritoryoftheRussianFederation,threateningitssecurity.InUkraine,the
documentcontinues,NATOandtheEUhavesupportedanunconstitutionalcoupthattriggeredaprofoundsplit
inUkrainiansocietyandresultedinanewsourceofinstabilityinEurope.
ThisisallpartandparcelofU.S.strategyinEurasia,accordingtothenowdeceasedheadofRussianmilitary
intelligence,GeneralIgorSergun.52Writingin2015,heassertedthatthelong-termU.S.goalwastoencircle
RussiaandChinawitharingofregimesloyaltotheUnitedStatesandflashpointsthatwouldreliablyprevent
RussiafromcarryingoutitsEurasianintegrationproject.
FromthepointofviewofMoscow,NATOsreinforcementsoftheBalticstatesandPolandtodateandinthe
futurehavebrokenyetanotherkeypromisegiventoRussiabythealliesnottostationpermanentlysubstantial
combatforcesontheterritoriesofnewmembers.Regardlessofthecaveatthatthepromisewasconditioned
onthecurrentandforeseeablesecurityenvironment,whichwasupendedbytheannexationofCrimeaand
aggressionineasternUkrainetherecanbelittledoubtthatthereinforcementsareperceivedbyRussias
nationalsecurityestablishmentasitsworstexpectationscomingtrue.53Whetherthesereinforcementswill
constituteapermanentorpersistentpresenceislikelytobeoflittleconsequenceforRussiananalysts,foreither
onewouldconstituteacontinuousandineffectpermanentmilitarypresenceofNATOtroopsintheseforward
areas.
ItstheEconomy...
ThechallengeRussiaisfacinginthenewinternationalthreatenvironment,intheviewofofficialandunofficial
spokesmen,iscompoundedbytheunenviablestateofitseconomy.54Gonearethehighratesofgrowthtypical
ofthefirsttwotermsofthePutinpresidencythatmadepossibletherecoveryofthecountryseconomichealthas
wellasitsinternationalstandingandmilitarycapabilities.TheinabilityoftheRussianeconomytocompeteinthe
globalmarketplaceanditsrelianceontheoldmodelofdevelopmentbasedonexportsofrawmaterialshave
beenelevatedinthenewnationalsecuritystrategytotherankofthemainstrategicthreatsto[Russias]national
securityinthesphereoftheeconomy.55ThetasknowbeforeRussianpolicymakersistodevelopanewmodel
ofeconomicgrowth,fortheoldonehasoutliveditsusefulness.Thisthemehasbeenstressedbytopofficialsin
Russia,includingKremlinChiefofStaffSergeiIvanov,who,withcandorrareforaseniorKremlinofficial,
admittedthatthecountryseconomicwoeswereduelargelytofailuretoreformduringthefatyears.56Security
CouncilSecretaryNikolaiPatrushev,too,hasstressedtheneedtojump-starttheRussianeconomyasamatter
ofnationalsecurity.57
FromthepointofviewofMoscow,NATOsreinforcements
oftheBalticstatesandPolandhavebrokenyetanotherkey
promisegiventoRussiabytheallies.
Russianforeignpolicyandnationalsecurityexpertsfromresearchinstitutesandacademiahaveechoedthesame
senseofalarmaboutnewchallengesfacingRussiaasfoundinofficialgovernmentstatementsanddocuments.
Theyhavestressedtheincreasinglychaotic,seeminglyall-against-allnatureoftheinternationalsystemandthe
weakeningofthemaincentersofglobalpower,includingtheUnitedStatesandEurope.58However,thatis
hardlyacauseforcelebration,forRussiaisfindingitselfwithoutreliablepartnersinthissituation(therelationship
withChinaistreatedwithcautioninthiscontexttimewilltellhowitturnsout).59AsaresultoftheUkraine
crisisandthebreakwiththeWest,Russiahasbeenleft,asCarnegiesDmitriTreninputit,aloneagainstall.60
Furthermore,Russiananalystshavearguedthatbytheendof2015,Russiawasinanall-encompassing,systemic
crisis.61Thebiggestblowwasdealtbythecollapseinoilpricesandtheendoftheglobalcommoditiesboom.
MakingmattersworsewasacombinationofshrinkingGDP,chroniclackofinvestment,currencydevaluation,
lossofaccesstoWesterncapitalmarkets,andhighinflation.Thepoliticalenvironmentwasnobetter,duetothe
escalationofmilitaryactivitiesabroad,theintensifyingcrackdownontheopposition,andthemurderof
oppositionpoliticianBorisNemtsov.
Takentogether,thesewereallsignsoffundamentalproblemsforapoliticalleadershipthatwassteadfastly
resistingcomprehensivereforms.Stagnationandthefailuretocarryoutfar-reachingeconomic,political,and
technologicalmodernizationcouldhavemajorsecurityimplications.Withoutreforms,Karaganovwarnedatthe
gatheringoftheestablishmentCouncilonForeignandDefensePolicy,defeatawaits[Russia]inthefuture
political,economic,andmilitary-strategiccompetitionofthetwenty-firstcentury.62HermanGref,theheadof
themajoritystate-ownedbiggestRussianbankSberbank,echoedthesewordsinearly2016,when,speakingat
apublicgatheringofeconomistsandseniorgovernmentofficials,hedescribedRussiaasalosercountry.63
NoLightattheEnd
TheseandothersimilarlygloomyassessmentsthathavepermeatedtheentirespectrumofRussianpolitical
opinion,fromofficialgovernmentdocumentsandestablishmentfigurestoscholarsatresearchinstitutionsto
oppositionfigures,pointtoaprofoundsenseofinsecurityinRussiasestablishmentcircles.64Goneisthe
confidenceofthefirsttwopresidentialtermsofVladimirPutin.TheearlybravuraresponsetoWesternsanctions
anddeclarationsthatRussianindustrycanmorethanmakeupforthelossofimportedgoodsandgrowthanksto
importsubstitutionandthecheaperRussianrublehavebeenderidedasdelusional.65Someofthemostalarmist
commentatorsgosofarastoclaimthattheRussianeconomyisbackslidingintothecategoryofindustrialand
evenpreindustrialeconomies,rapidlyfallingbehindtothepointwhereonedayitcouldceasetobean
independentactorintheinternationalarena.66AsasignoftheprevailinggloomamongRussianeconomic
analysts,includingseniorgovernmentofficials,theendofthecurrenteconomiccrisis,whichsomebelieveRussia
isalreadyapproaching,maynotleadtogrowthinstead,inthewordsofthefirstdeputychairoftheCentral
BankofRussia,XeniaYudayeva,itwillmarkthebeginningofeternalorlong-termstagnation.67
ThisbriefoverviewofthenarrativeinofficialRussianoutletsandsocietaldiscoursepointstoalackofconfidence
onthepartofRussianelitesintheirleadership,intheirownabilities,andinthecountrysfuture.Thetimesof
trouble,whichmanyifnotmostRussiansoncethoughtwereleftbehindinthe1990s,appeartobeanythingbut
safelybehindthem.RussianassessmentsofthepresentsituationinandaroundRussiacanbesummarizedina
fewshortsentences:
TheRussianeconomyhasoutliveditsmodelofdevelopmentandcanatbeststagnateandstayfirmly
lodgedinthemiddle-incometrapthepoliticalsystemisnotabletoaddressthetensionsthatarebuilding
withinsociety.
Theleadershiphasyettoofferacrediblestrategyforleadingthecountryoutofitscrisis.
Theinternationalenvironmentischaoticandhostile.
Russiahasnoreliablepartnersandisfacingavastlysuperioradversarywhoseeconomyismuchbigger
andbetterperformingthanRussiasandwhosemilitaryandtechnologicalcapabilitiesaretheenvyandthe
targetofRussiasownmilitaryreformanddefensemodernizationplans.
MilitaryInferiorityVis--VistheWest
NotwithstandingtheimpressiverevivalofRussianmilitarycapabilitiesandthebattlefieldvictoriesinUkraine,
RussianassessmentsoftheRussianmilitaryhavebeenpermeatedbyadeepsenseofinferiorityvis--visNATO.
AnauthoritativeassessmentofferedbyaleadingRussianmilitaryanalystintheaftermathoftheactivephaseof
theconflictineasternUkrainedescribedthemilitaryconfrontationbetweenRussiaandUkraineasabattle
betweentwoobsoletemilitaries,oneofwhich(Russias)wasbettertrained,equipped,andled.68
Ahypotheticalsimilarconflict,theanalysiscontinued,withparticipationbyvolunteersfromNATOcountries
wouldfollowaverydifferentscenario.TheRussianmilitarywouldfaceafarsuperiorenemy,onethatisbetter
equipped,bettertrained,betterled,andbettersustained.FromthesizeofNATOsgroundforcetosmart
weaponsinitsarsenaltoitselectronicwarfarecapabilities,theRussianmilitarywouldbeoutnumbered,
outgunned,outdone.Russiasonlyrecourseinsuchcircumstances,theanalysisconcludes,istothreatenthe
adversarywithtacticalnuclearweapons.Thecountry,thearmy,andthenavyarenotyetreadyforalarge-scale
conventional-onlywar.69
ThissenseofvulnerabilitypermeatesRussianmilitarythinkingaboutfutureconflictsandthreatassessmentsas
theypertaintoeverysphereofmilitaryactivityconventional,nuclear,cyberwar,andinformationwarfare.None
ofthisisnewandreflectslong-standingRussianandearlierSovietconcernsaboutthecountrysinferiormilitary
capabilitieswhenstackedagainstNATOs.
NuclearWeaponsLastResort.AndFirst?
Inrecentyears,noRussianstatementaboutsecuritypolicyhasgeneratedmorealarmintheWestthanhigh-level
pronouncementsaboutRussiannuclearmodernizationandthereadinesstousenuclearweaponsintheeventofa
conflictinEurope.70WidelyinterpretedinpubliccommentaryintheWestasevidenceofRussianaggressiveness
andmilitaristicambitions,thesestatementshavebeenechoedindomesticRussiandiscussionsabouttheroleof
nuclearweaponsinafuturewar.71
ThatwarwouldbefoughtagainsttheWest.Russia,writesSergeyBrezkun,professoroftheAcademyof
MilitarySciences,needstodevelopitsownde-escalationladderinordertolimitafutureregionalconflict
atanearlystageandpreventitfromblowingupintoalarge-scalewar.72Russianleaders,helaments,havenot
adequatelyaddressedtheproblemofregionaldeterrence,whichisbecomingallthemoreurgentbecauseof
whathecharacterizedastheweakeningofthepolitical-militarypositionsoftheRussianFederation,
proliferationontheperipheryofRussiaofhostileregimesmanipulatedbytheWest,andthedeclineofRussias
conventionalcapabilities.Inthesecircumstances,theideaofmassivenuclearretaliationinresponsetoaregional
crisisisirrationalandimpractical.Russianeedsoptionsforde-escalatingthecrisisinitsbeginningphasewiththe
helpoflimitednuclearstrikesagainstkeyassetsoftheenemy,butwithoutcatastrophicconsequences,aswell
asnuclearweaponsspecificallydesignedforthispurpose.Suchlimitednuclearstrikes,Brezkunargues,willhave
asoberingeffectontheenemy,whichwillthenceaseanddesist.
Intheworstpossiblecase,whichtoRussianplannersisnot
unimaginable,acombinationofNATOsconventional,
nuclear,andmissiledefensecapabilitiescouldprove
devastatingtoRussiasnucleararsenalanddenyittheability
todeliveraretaliatorystrike.
Russianmilitarystrategistslackofconfidenceintheirconventionalcapabilitiesisalong-standingphenomenon
thatpredateseventhebreakupoftheSovietUnionandtheimplosionoftheRussianeconomyanditsdefense-
industrialsector.OneoftheearliestvoicestosoundalarmabouttheWestsemergingsuperiorconventional
capabilitiesinthe1970sand1980swasMarshalNikolayOgarkov,thechiefoftheGeneralStaff.73Thislackof
confidencemayappearsurprisingintheaftermathofRussianmilitaryreform,inthemidstofaten-yeardefense
modernizationprogram,increaseddefensespending,andtheRussianarmysstringofsuccessfuloperations.Still,
U.S.andotherNATOcountriesconventionalcapabilitiescontinuetoimpressRussianmilitaryobserversand
feedtheirinsecuritywithrespecttotheirown.
Butthisdeep-seatedfeelingofinsecuritycomparedwithNATOapparentlygoesbeyondtheconventionalsphere
andappliestoRussiasstrategicandtacticalnuclearcapabilitiesaswell.Intheworstpossiblecase,whichto
Russianplannersisnotunimaginable,acombinationofNATOsconventional,nuclear,andmissiledefense
capabilitiescouldprovedevastatingtoRussiasnucleararsenalanddenyittheabilitytodeliveraretaliatory
strike.Facedwiththishighlyimprobableprospect,Russianmilitaryplannershavetoconsiderfirst-useoptionsas
ade-escalatorymeasurethatwillpersuadetheenemyofthefutilityofitsactions.Otherwise,ifnuclearweapons
arenotusedearlyinaconflictforthepurposeofendingit,Russiamaynotbeabletousethematallandbe
defeated.
ThesamelackofconfidenceinRussianretaliatorycapabilitiesisapparentinRussiandiscussionsabouttheneed
foradoomsdaymachinelikeschemetoensureamassiveretaliatorystrikeintheeventofadevastatingattack
onRussiadiscussionsreminiscentofStanleyKubricksDr.Strangelovecharacter.74Inanapparently
deliberateleak,Russianmediarevealedtheexistenceofahigh-yieldunmannednucleartorpedothatcouldbe
launchedasaretaliatoryweaponagainstamajorU.S.coastalurbancenterandwouldresultinmassivehuman
lossandeconomicdevastation.75AnotherproposalcalledforRussiatousemassivenuclearchargestotrigger
catastrophictsunamis,volcaniceruptions,orearthquakesthatwouldcausedevastationoflargeareasofthe
UnitedStatesalongtheWestcoast.76
RussianmilitaryplannersconcernsaboutthethreatofU.S.missiledefensestotheirretaliatorycapabilitieslong
predatethedecisionsbytheadministrationsofObamaandhispredecessorasU.S.president,GeorgeW.Bush,
todeploymissiledefensesintheUnitedStatesandEurope.Someanalystshavegonesofarastosaythatformer
presidentRonaldReagansStrategicDefenseInitiative(commonlycalledStarWars)inthe1980swas
responsibleforconvincingtheSovietPolitburothattheUnitedStatesenjoyedvastmilitary-technological
superiority.NotonlycouldtheUnitedStateslaunchasurpriseattackontheSovietUnion,theseanalysts
concluded,butitcouldalsoacquirethemeansofdenyingtheSovietUnionthecapabilityofdeliveringa
retaliatorystrike.77Thearmsrace,inotherwords,couldnotbewon,andthatinturnledtotheendoftheCold
War.78
RussianconcernsaboutU.S.missiledefensecapabilitiesthusappeartohavedeeproots.Theyhavebeen
restatedwithsurprisingcandorbyRussianofficials.RussianMinistryofForeignAffairsSpecialEnvoyGrigory
Berdennikov,replyingtoaquestioninFebruary2015aboutfuturearmscontrol,said,
Onehastounderstandthatnuclearweaponsarenotsomethingthatstandsalone,theyarepartofthe
strategicbalance.Tomoveaheadwithnuclearweaponsreductions,itisnecessarytotakeintoaccount
otherfactorsfirstofall,thefactoroftheglobalmissiledefensesystem,whichtheAmericans,despite
all[our]arguments,stubbornlydonotwanttodiscusswithus....
Theentiresystemofmutualrelationsinthenuclearsphereisbasedondeterrence.Inotherwords,you
havetohavethecapability,havingsurvivedthefirststrike,toretaliate,andinsuchawaythatthe
retaliatorystrikeissoterriblethatnobodywoulddaretolaunchthefirstone.Ifaneffectivemissile
defensesystemappears,thensomeonemayhavetheillusionthatmostoftheweaponsoftheenemycan
bedestroyedinthefirststrikeandtherestcanbemoreorlessintercepted.Thesmalleryourarsenal,the
easieritistointerceptwhatsleftafterthefirststrike.Andwearebeingtold[bytheAmericans],Well
continuetodevelopthesedefensivesystems,butletusreducefurthertheoffensivesystems.Forwhat?
Tohaveafirmguaranteethatthesecondstrikewillbeintercepted,tohavethefreedomtolaunchthe
firststrike?Isthatwhywearedoingallthis?79
Russianconcernsandcandorarenotlimitedtothenuclearsphere.Continuinghispointaboutthefallacyof
treatingnuclearweaponsasastand-alonecapability,Berdennikovsaid,
Wearepreparedforadialogueaboutfurthernucleardisarmamentsteps.Atthesametime,weare
convincedthattheyareimpossiblewithoutsolvingsuchproblemsastheunlimitedgrowthofglobalU.S.
missiledefenses,theprojectofusingstrategicweaponswithconventionalwarheadswithintheconcept
ofglobalstrike,...therefusaloftheUnitedStatestopledgenottodeployweaponsinspace,[and]
thegrowthofqualitativeandquantitativeconventionalimbalances.80
ThisstatementandothersbyseniorRussianofficialsandprominentanalystsunderscorethevitalfunctionnuclear
weaponscontinuetoperforminthedefenseoftheRussianstate.81Athreattothoseweaponsisathreattothe
survivalofanindependentandsovereignRussianstate.
NewThreats
TheexpandingrangeofU.S.strategiccapabilitiesnuclear,high-precisionandlong-rangeconventional,and
missiledefensehasbeenamajorpreoccupationofRussianmilitaryanalysts.82Russianconcernaboutthese
capabilitiesisreflectedincandidstatementsaboutthethreattheypose,aswellasreassurancesthatRussian
strategicsystemsarerobust,reliable,andimpervioustoU.S.offensiveordefensivearsenals.83
Theconversationaboutthechangingnatureofwarfare,therolesofnuclearandnon-nuclearweapons,and
deterrencehasbeenunderwayamongRussianexpertsandmilitaryofficialsfordecades,beginningwiththe
writingsofOgarkov.ThisconversationreflectsthedeepconvictionamongRussiananalystsandplannersthat
RussiahasfallenfarbehindtheUnitedStatesinthedevelopmentofhigh-precisionconventionalweaponryand
non-nucleardeterrentcapabilities.84Italsoreflectstheirviewthatgradually,theperformancecharacteristicsof
non-nuclear,high-precisionweaponsareimprovingsomuchthattheycouldbegintotakeonthefunctionsthat
untilnowhavebeenassignedexclusivelytonuclearweapons.85Asaresult,thetaskfacingtheRussianmilitaryof
deterringsuperioradversariesequippedwithsuchsystemsisincreasinglychallenging.86
Despitebravuraassurancesthatthenationsnuclearshieldis
invincibleandcapableofreliablydefendingagainstand
deterringanyenemy,Russiandefenseexpertsappearto
harbordoubts.
TheranksofRussianmilitaryanalystsincludeanumberofskepticswhodoubtnotsomuchtherelativestateof
affairsinthedevelopmentofU.S.andRussianarsenalsasthepropositionthatconventionalhigh-precision
systemswillbeabletotakeovermissionsassignedtonuclearsystems.87Theseskepticsbelievethatthe
principalthreattoRussiasnucleardeterrentandretaliatorycapabilitiesisposedbyU.S.nuclearsystemsand
thatpriorityshouldbegiventoprogramsintendedtocounterthosesystems.However,eventheseskeptics
concludethatalthoughnon-nuclear,precision-guidedweaponscannotsupplantnuclearweapons,theycanaffect
thestrategicbalanceinsignificantways.88
Tomeetthischallenge,Russiandefenseexpertscontinuetoemphasizenuclearweapons.Althoughmuchhas
beenmadeoftheseriesofRussianconventionalshipbornecruisemissilestrikesfromtheCaspianSeaagainst
targetsinSyria,thesemuch-toutedcapabilitiesintheeyesofRussianexpertsareapparentlynotyetsufficientto
deterNATOthreatstoRussiainEurope.89
InSeptember2014,DmitryRogozin,thedeputyprimeministerinchargeofdefenseindustries,pledgedto
modernizetheentireRussianstrategicnuclearforcesby2020,notmerely70percentaspreviouslyplanned.90
AccordingtoShoigu,56percentofRussiannuclearweaponsarenew.91ThechiefoftheGeneralStaff,General
ValeryGerasimov,echoedRogozinsvowandreferredtoprioritydevelopmentofstrategicnuclearforcesasthe
MinistryofDefensesmostimportanttask.92
However,despitetheseacceleratedprogramsandbravuraassurancesthatthenationsnuclearshieldisinvincible
andcapableofreliablydefendingagainstanddeterringanyenemy,Russiandefenseexpertsappeartoharbor
doubtsthatthesemeasuresaresufficient.93Thus,somehavesuggestedthatevendeployingIskandershort-range
ballisticmissiles,capableofcarryingnuclearwarheads,toCrimeaandKaliningradmayproveinsufficientto
deterpotentialenemies.94Instead,toaccomplishthatgoal,RussiamayhavetowithdrawfromtheIntermediate-
RangeNuclearForcesTreatyandreintroducethatclassofweaponsintoitsarsenal.95Russiancommentators
maintainthatsuchastepisbeingcontemplatedbecauseofthecombinedthreatofNATOmissiledefensein
Europeandtheacquisitionofintermediate-rangemissilesbyPakistan,India,andIran.96
NuclearweaponscertainlyarethecriticalelementofRussian
defensepolicyandwillremainsoforalongtime.
OfficialstatementsofferassurancesthatRussiawillusenuclearweaponsonlyintwocircumstances:inretaliation
forastrikeagainstitoritsalliesusingnuclearweaponsorsomeotherformofweaponsofmassdestructionorif
RussiaisavictimofanaggressionthatusesconventionalweaponsbutthreatenstheverysurvivaloftheRussian
state.97However,RussiandefensepolicydiscussionsrevealthatseniorRussiandefenseplannersalso
contemplateanothercontingency:launchingpreventivenuclearstrikes,whetherofalimitednatureintendedto
de-escalateaconflictoronalargerscale.98ThiscouldamounttoyetanothertacitadmissionofRussiandefense
plannerslackofconfidenceintheirsecond-strikecapability.Iftheydontusetheirnuclearweapons,inother
words,theylosethem.
NuclearweaponscertainlyarethecriticalelementofRussiandefensepolicyandwillremainsoforalongtime.
Russiandefenseexpertsandofficialsreadilyadmitthattheirindustrialandtechnologicalinferioritywillprevent
themfrommatchingU.S.advancedmilitarytechnologiesintheforeseeablefuture.99Thisundoubtedlyfeedstheir
alreadydeeplyheldfeelingofinsecurityandinferiorityvis--vistheWest,whichisonlyreinforcedbythe
proliferationofnewtechnologiesandcapabilitiesfordifferentformsofwarfare.
CyberwartheNewUltimateWeapon
AsifU.S.nuclear,high-precisionconventional,andmissiledefensetechnologieshavenotbeenenoughtofuel
anxietiesofRussiandefenseplanners,theadventofcyberwarfarehasaddedtotheirsenseofinsecurity.Thisis
nottosaythatRussiahasnotsustaineditsownvastcyberwarfareeffortorinvestedpriortotheadventof
cybertechnologyinwhatRussiandefenseexpertscallradio-electronicwarfareorinformationwarfare.Ithas.
However,theinformationrevolutionanduniversalcomputerizationofeverysphereofstateandsocietalactivity
hascreatedamultitudeofnewthreats.
Theworldisenteringanewphaseofwarfare,accordingtoRussiandefenseexperts,whoassertthat
cyberwarfareisnolongerawarofthefuture.100Itistakingplacenowanew,fifthdomain,alongwithland,air,
sea,andspace,inwhichwarcanandwillbewaged.Cyberwarfaretakesprecedenceoverkineticwarfareandis
beingundertakenbystatescontinuously.Theboundarybetweenwarandpeaceisbeinggraduallyerased.
CyberwarfarecanthreatenRussiainawidevarietyofways,fromparalyzinganddestroyingitsinfrastructureto
disablingitscomputernetworksorinsertingdeliberatelyfalseinformationanddisseminatingittothepopulation.
AccordingtoRussianexperts,thedestructivepotentialofcyberweaponsiscomparabletothatofnuclear
weapons.101Cyberweaponscancreatepanic,plungesocietiesintochaos,underminelegitimategovernments,
suppressanationswilltoresistaggression,andparalyzeitsarmedforces.Theycanwinwarsbeforeeventhe
firstshotisfired.102Understandingtheconsequencesofthisformofwarfareisofutmostimportanceforthe
Russianmilitary,whichhasalreadybegunthiseffort.103
InformationwarfarehaslongbeenamajorareaofinterestandconcernforRussiannationalsecurityofficials.
TheRussianSecurityCounciladoptedtheDoctrineofInformationSecurityofRussianFederationasearlyas
2000andsincethenhasdevelopedawholelibraryofsupportingdocumentstoguideRussianpolicyinthis
sphere.104Sincethen,Russianconcernsaboutthreatsposedbyoffensiveoperationsofcyberwarand
informationwarhaveincreasedmanifold,andtheissuehasbeenactivelydiscussedamongdefenseandsecurity
experts.105The2016NationalSecurityStrategystatesthatintheinterestofprotectingstateandpublicsecurity,
thegovernmentwillundertakethenecessarystepstoimprovetheprotectionofcitizensandsocietyfromthe
effectsofdestructiveinformationpropagatedbyextremistsandterroristorganizations,foreignintelligence
services,andpropagandaoutlets.106
ThesensitivityandurgencyofthepotentialthreattoRussiafromthecyberdomainwasunderscoredin2014
whenPutindeclaredGoogleaspecialprojectoftheU.S.CentralIntelligenceAgencyandurgedRussiansto
avoidusingit.TheRussianleaderscommentsaboutU.S.controloftheInternet,combinedwiththeRussian
governmentslong-termpursuittoestablishsovereigncontroloverRussiasportionoftheInternet,reflectthe
insecuritynotonlyoftheelitesbutalsoofthegeneralpublicaboutthecountrysvulnerabilitytocyberattacksand
informationattacksfromadversaries,bothrealandimagined.107Thisinsecuritygoessofarastomotivatethe
RussiangovernmenttoseekwaystocontroltheRussianInternetandevenconsiderwaystoineffectunplug
RussiafromtheInternetinanemergency.108SovereigncontroloverRussiasportionoftheInternethasbeena
long-standinggoaloftheRussiangovernmentspositionininternationalforumsdealingwithInternetgovernance
agoalthathasservedasanelementofRussian-ChinesepartnershipinoppositiontoU.S.andotherWestern
nationspursuitofthefreeflowofinformationwithoutborders.109Inthefuture,theRussiangovernmentspursuit
ofcapabilitiestoregulateand,ifnecessary,switchofftheInternetisexpectedtointensifyasitconsidersafree
andunimpededInternetasoneofitsbiggestthreats.110
IntheviewofRussiannationalsecurityexperts,thefuturehasarrived.TheeffectonRussiahasbeento
aggravateitssenseofencirclement,compounditsvulnerabilities,andmultiplythreatstoit.
WarbyOtherMeans
ThedeteriorationofthisperceivedthreatenvironmentintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisishasspawneda
discussionamongRussiannationalsecurityexpertsaboutvariousformsofnonkinetic,nonstopwarfarewagedby
theWestagainstRussiaeveninpeacetime.Inadditiontoinformationwarandcyberwarfare,theyhavefocused
onWesterneconomicsanctionsagainstRussiaasaformofcontinuous,undeclaredwarfare.
TheKremlinsresponsetosanctionscanbesummedupasamovetowardeconomicnationalismand
isolationism.WhenVisaandMasterCardcutoffservicestotwoRussianbanksthatweresanctionedbythe
UnitedStates,themovehighlightedfortheRussiangovernmenttheeconomysheavyrelianceonWestern
paymentsystemsanditsresultingvulnerabilitytofurtherWesternsanctions.Inresponse,theCentralBankof
RussiahasannouncedaplantocreateanationalpaymentsystemtoinsulateRussiafromWesternpressureinthe
eventofanewroundofsanctions.111ThemorerecentthreattocutoffRussianaccesstoSWIFT(Societyfor
WorldwideInterbankFinancialTelecommunication)hasledtheRussiangovernmenttoconsideroptionsfor
settingupanalternativeinpartnershipwithChina.112
Thedefense-industrialsectorhasbeendirectedtodiminishandeventuallyeliminateitsrelianceonforeign
suppliers.113Thedesiretoenddependenceonforeignsuppliersisnotlimitedtothedefensesector,forinMay
2016,Putintaskedthecabinetwithstimulatingdomesticmanufacturinganddevelopingsubstitutesforforeign
importsthroughouttheeconomy.Inafurthermovetoinsulatetheeconomyfromforeigninfluence,Putinordered
thegovernmenttodevelopandimplementstepsfordeoffshorizationofmajorindustrialenterprisesbydeveloping
tax,accounting,andcriminallegislationaimedatdiscouragingcompaniesfromlocatingfacilitiesoffshore.114
Theideathatsanctionsrepresentaformofwarfareoraninstrumentofcoercionishardlyneworuniqueto
Russia.Ithasalonghistory,andrecordeddiplomacyandwarfarearerepletewithexamplesofitdatingallthe
waytoancientGreece.115Nonetheless,Westernsanctionsandtheeconomicslumpthathasfollowedtheir
impositionalthoughcausednotonlybythemundoubtedlyhaveunderscoredRussiasvulnerabilitytooutside
forcesandthehostileenvironmentaroundit.
HybridWarfareOldWine,OldSkins
ThetakeoverofCrimeabytheRussianmilitaryand,subsequently,theoperationsineasternUkrainehave
focusedtheattentionofforeignandRussianobserversonso-calledhybridwarfare.Thisterm,whichreferstoa
widerangeofkineticandnonkineticactivitiesbymilitarypersonnelandcivilians,hasbeenthesubjectof
extensivediscussionsinRussiaasbothathreattoRussiansecurityandRussiasresponsetothreatstoitposed
byhostilepowers.
WesternofficialsandanalystshavefocusedonhybridwarfareprimarilyasaresultofRussiasundeclaredwarin
Ukraine,whichentailsamixofspecialforces,civilians,informationoperations,cyberattacks,and,onsome
occasions,uniformedmilitarypersonnel.116Presumably,acombinationofthesecapabilitiesinacrisis
environmentcanbeusedtoachievesurpriseandconfusetheadversaryandtoaccomplishpoliticalandmilitary
objectiveswithoutresortingtolarge-scalekineticwarfareandanoutrightwardeclaration,whichinturncan
presentanadversarywithafaitaccompliandavoidunnecessarycasualtiesandescalationofhostilitiesfor
Russia.CountriesthatshareborderswithRussia,especiallytheBalticstates,someofwhichhavelargeRussian
populations,areespeciallyvulnerabletothistypeofwarfare,Westernofficialshavewarned.117
Russianrelianceonsuchformsofwarfarehastheadditionalimportantbenefitofambiguity.Intheabsenceofan
outrightmilitaryinterventionbyRussiainoneormoreBalticstates,NATOwouldlackclearevidenceofRussian
aggression,thusrunningtheriskofconfusionandcontroversyamongtheallieswithrespecttomilitaryactionin
defenseoftheBalticstatesinaccordancewiththealliancesArticle5guarantees.
RussiandefenseexpertsalsochargethattheWestisconductinghybridwarfareagainstRussiathrougha
combinationofmilitaryandothermeans,includingsanctionsandinformationwarfare.118Theirinterpretationof
hybridwarfareunderscoresthedestabilizingfunctionoftheWestsdemocracypromotionactivitiesspecifically
thecolorrevolutionsinthecountriessurroundingRussia.InRussiasview,thoseactivities,throughmeasureswell
shortofwar,createazoneofinstabilityaroundRussia,encircleitwithWesternagentsofinfluence,andcreate
opportunitiesforWesternintervention.119Moreover,instabilitythreatensnotonlyRussiasneighborsbutalso
Russiaitself,becausesupportforgroupsinsideRussiaopposedtotheRussiangovernmentcanalsobe
interpretedasanelementofhybridwarfare.120Large-scalewarfarehasbecomedangerous,evensuicidal,for
thepartiesinvolved,duetothedestructionassociatedwithitwithorwithoutnuclearweapons.Andthatinturn
necessitatesresortingtootherformsofwarfarethatcarrysmallerrisksofcatastrophicconsequences.
SomeRussiandefenseanalystshavearguedthatdespitethepublicitysurroundingthetermhybridwarfare
sincethestartoftheconflictinUkraine,theconceptisneithernewnorparticularlytransformative.121For
example,theynote,informationoperationshavelongbeenacriticalelementofstatesactivitiesintendedto
misleadanadversaryanddemoralizeitspopulationandcombatants.Deploymentofmilitarypersonnelwithout
nationalinsigniaisalong-standingpracticeinwarfare,asistheuseofproxiesandregularforcesundertheguise
ofvolunteers.Theargumentaboutthenoveltyofhybridwarfarethusdoesnotstanduptoscrutinyandis
contradictedbyalongandrichhistoricalrecordofvariousconflicts.122
TheRussiangovernmentsapproachtodealingwithUkraine-relatedsanctionsimposedbytheUnitedStatesand
theEuropeanUnionisindicativeofwhatRussianbehaviorcanbeexpectedtobelikeinfuturecrises.By
focusingonsomeoftheweakerandpoorerEUandNATOmembersGreeceorBulgaria,forinstance
Russianofficialshaveapparentlysoughttounderminebothorganizationsconsensusonsanctionsagainst
Russia.123Similarly,thereportedfinancialtiesbetweenFrancesfar-rightNationalFrontandaMoscow-based
bankarelikelyintendedtosecureaRussianfootholdinFrenchdomesticpoliticsandtoseektoinfluenceFrench
policy.124PoliticalpartiesandindividualpoliticiansandofficialsintheCzechRepublic,Germany,andLatviahave
allbeentargetedbytheRussiangovernment.125
Inacrisissituation,theuseofdisinformation,awiderangeofinformationoperations,diplomaticmaneuvering,
diversionarytroopmovements,activationofsleeperagentsandfriendlylocals,infiltrationofspecialforces,
reconnaissance,andvariousothermilitary,paramilitary,andcivilianpersonnelareallfairgame.Corruption,
blackmail,relianceoncriminalnetworks,andoverteconomicassistanceareallfairgameasmeansofpreparing
thebattlefieldorachievingpoliticalobjectivesbeforethefirstshotisfired.
ABleakOutlook
TheprofoundsenseofinsecuritythatpermeatesRussiandiscussionsaboutthecountryspositioninEuropeand
Eurasiaiswelljustified.TherearemanyuncertaintiesinRussiasfuture,aswellasinthoseofitsneighbors,
potentialpartners,allies,andadversaries.However,thoseuncertaintiesdisappearwhenitcomestothis
prediction:theabilitiesofRussianleaders,militaryplanners,anddiplomatswillbethoroughlytestedintheyears
anddecadestocomeasafunctionofthedifficultgeopoliticalenvironmentandmultiplechallengesthecountryis
facingathome.
PredictingthetrajectoryofRussiaisaninherentlydifficulttask.FewpredictedthebreakupoftheSovietUnion
beforeitunraveledrapidly.Fewpredictedthatthecountrywoulddissolverelativelypeacefully.Fewpredicted
theeconomiccalamitythatfollowed,therecoveryofRussiaadecadelater,theeconomicboomthatfollowed,
theprotestsof2012,thewarwithUkraine,andthevirulentlyanti-WesternturninRussiandomesticandforeign
policies.Allofthesemajorshiftsoccurredintheshorthistoricallyspeakingspanoftwenty-fiveyears.
Acomparableseriesofeventsinthenextdecadeordecadeandahalfcouldtheoreticallyresultinthebreakupof
Russiaintoaseriesofsmallerstates,someofthemwithnuclearweaponsontheirterritoriesanotherwarinthe
SouthCaucasusanewrapprochementwiththeWestnecessitatedbytheneedformodernization,economicaid,
andhelpconsolidatingnuclearweaponsinwhatsleftofRussiaproper.Andallofthesecouldbefollowedbythe
riseofanationalistRussianregimebentongatheringthelostempireandreconstitutingthegreatRussianstate,
triggeringyetanotherconflictwithbothimmediateneighborsandtheWest.
Insum,noforecastofRussiasfuturecanbereducedtoastraightline.Russiahastoexploremultiple
possibilities.Ithastoconsiderpossibilitiesthatareliterallystrangerthanfiction.Andthenithastocautionthe
readertotakeallwithabiggrainofsalt.
AnEstablishedPoliticalSystem
ConsideringthemanychangesinRussiainthepastquartercentury,itiseasytooverlookthefactthateven
thoughthecountryunderwentamajorpoliticalshockwhentheSovietUnionbrokeup,itspoliticalsystemis
quitewellestablished.DespitesignificantdifferencesbetweentheYeltsinera,thePutinpresidency,andthe
Medvedevinterregnum,thepoliticalsystemchangedlittle.DescribedearlyinitsdevelopmentbylongtimeRussia
expertThomasGraham,ithasremainedessentiallyanoligarchywithallthetrappingsofamoderndemocracy,
butwithoutinternalideologicaldifferencesandmotivatedonlybycompetitionforpropertyamongoligarchic
groupsorclans.126Atthecenterofthisarrangementstandsapowerfulpresidentwhosemissionistomanage
competitionamongclansandthusmaintaindomesticstability.
EstablishedearlyduringtheYeltsinpresidency,thissystemhassurvivedlargelyintact.Someclansandoligarchs
havedeparted,andothershavereplacedthem.Thepowerofthepresidencyhasincreasedordecreased
dependingonthepersonalityoftheincumbent.Butthroughitall,thesysteminitsessencehasremainedintact.
Keyfeaturesofthissystemapowerfulexecutive,thecloserelationshipbetweenpowerandproperty,their
concentrationinthehandsofarelativelysmallelite,thelackofarepresentativegovernment,andtheprevalence
oftherulingideologypredatethecurrentRussianregimeandhavetheirrootsintheSovietandimperial
Russianperiods.Littleonthecountryspoliticallandscapesuggeststhatthesystemislikelytoundergosignificant
changesintheforeseeablefuture.Itmayundergosomechangesonthemargins,butthereisnothinginRussian
domesticpoliticstoindicatethatamorerepresentativeformofgovernmentislikelytoemergeinthenexttento
fifteenyears.Yet,changemayberequiredforthecountrytoovercomethemanyobstaclesfacingit.
StagnationLooms
In2016,wellintoPutinsthirdpresidentialterm,Russiafindsitselfconfrontedbyincreasinglybleakprospects.
AsnotedbymanyRussianobserversquotedinthispaper,theproblemisnotjustthatthepriceofoilislowor
thatthesanctionsimposedbytheEUandtheUnitedStateshavehurttheRussianeconomy.Theentiremodelof
economicdevelopmentpursuedbyRussiainthepastdecadeandahalf,theobserversconclude,hasoutlived
itself.
SomeRussiananalystshavenotedthesimilaritybetweenPutinsRussia,nowintheseventeenthyearofthe
Russianpresidentstenureatthehelm,andtheSovietUnionduringtheeraofLeonidBrezhnev,wholedthe
countryforeighteenyearsfrom1964to1982.127Then,too,theSovietUnionhadreachedadeadendandhad
toradicallychangecourseindomesticandforeignaffairs.
Russiasnextpresidentialelectionisscheduledin2018.Putin,whowillthenbesixty-fiveyearsold,willendhis
thirdpresidentialtermandwilleitherrunforyetanothersix-yeartermorstepasideeitherasatacticalmeasure
orasamovetowardretirement.ThelikelihoodofPutinsteppingasideretiring,ratherthanasatacticalmove
appearslowatthetimeofthiswriting.128
Moreover,Putinsdeparturefromthepoliticalstageshouldnotbeequatedwithimprovedprospectsforpolitical
oreconomicmodernizationinRussia.Theupperechelonofthecountryspoliticaleliteiscomposedofpeople
whoseoutlooksandbackgroundsaresimilartoPutins.Theirprospectsforimplementingmajorchangesinthe
countryspoliticalsystemoreconomyappearequallymodestatbest
IfPutinLeaves
Nonetheless,theconsequencesofPutinsdeparturefromthepoliticalsceneareworthconsideringifonlyasan
intellectualenterprise.TheRussianpresidentsretirementattheendofhiscurrenttermwouldbefollowedbyan
electioninwhichanewleaderwouldbechosen.Thatishowtheprocessissupposedtoworkformally,and
thereislittlechancethatitwillnot.
Inreality,PutinsdeparturewouldholdthepossibilityofasignificantdestabilizationofRussianpolitics.He
occupiesauniquelypowerfulplaceinthecountryspoliticalsystem,actingasthecentralfigureamongvarious
interestsgroupsandclans,balancingtheircompetingdemandsandadjudicatingtheirdisputes.129Noother
politiciancomesclosetoPutinsstandinginthatsystem.Hehasnopoliticalheirorsecond-in-command.The
primeministercurrentlyDmitryMedvedevstepsintemporarilyifthepresidentisincapacitatedordiesin
office,untilanewpresidentiselectedwithinninetydays.Few,ifany,politicalanalystswouldarguethat
MedvedevisacrediblecandidateforthepresidencytosucceedPutinorapowerfulfigureinRussiandomestic
politics.
Intheabsenceofadesignatedpoliticalsuccessor,theprocessofnominatingacandidatefromthepoliticalelite
so-calledthepartyofpowerwouldbehighlycontested,almostcertainlymoresothantheelectionitself.Such
intra-elitestrugglestookplaceduringthe20072008period,whenPutinssecondtermwasduetoexpirebuthe
hadnotyetdesignatedhissuccessorormadeclearhisownplans.Similarly,in2011,Russianeliteswere
unsettledbythelackofclarityaboutthefutureoftheMedvedev-Putintandem.
ShouldPutindepartthepoliticalscenewithoutdesignatingasuccessor,therulingelitewouldhaveapowerful
incentiveinpreservingtheexistingsystemandavoidinganinternalsplit,thusincreasingthelikelihoodof
coalescingaroundasinglecandidate.Buttheprocessofselectingthatsinglecandidateislikelytobecontentious,
resultinginafiercecompetitionamongclansandinterestgroups.
Thenomineewouldbevirtuallycertaintowintheelection.Russiasbeleagueredpoliticaloppositionhasbeen
decimatedasaresultofaseriesofsystematicmeasuresbythePutinadministrationtolimittheabilityof
oppositionpartiesandcivilsocietyatlargetoorganize,recruitmembers,raisefunds,orinanyotherway
participateinthepoliticallifeofthecountry.Noseriouscontenderforthepresidencyabletocompetewiththe
onenominatedbythepartyofpowerislikelytoemergefromtheranksoftheopposition.
However,theelectionwouldnotmarktheendofpoliticalinstabilityinRussia.Thenewleaderwouldhaveto
workhardtoconsolidatehis(mostlikelynother)powerandrestoretheequilibriumamongclansdisruptedby
Putinsdeparture.Thiswouldalmostcertainlybeaprocessthatwouldtakeyears,giventhesizeofthecountry,
themultitudeofitsclansandinterestgroups,regionalinterests,andthesorrystateoftheeconomythatwould
almostcertainlyleadtofiercecompetitionamongclansforalargershareoftheshrinkingpie.
Howlikelyisthecountrysnewpresidenttointroducemajorreformsindomesticorforeignaffairsinthat
environment?SuchreformsnotunliketheGorbachev-eradtentewiththeWestinforeignpolicyand
movementtowardderegulationandmarketcapitalismwouldundoubtedlyprovecontroversialandpolitically
difficult,fortheywouldaffectinterestsofvariousclansvestedinthestatusquo.Anynewleaderwouldhaveto
takethatintoaccount.AnewleaderwouldalsohavetotakeintoaccountthefragilityoftheRussianeconomy
andprobablybemindfulthatGorbachevsreformsendedincatastrophethebreakupofthecountry.Withthis
baggage,anynewleaderwouldlikelyproceedwithextremecaution,ifatall.Thelikelyoutcomeofthisscenario
wouldbeacontinuationofPutinism,butwithoutPutin,fortheremainderofthisdecade,ifnotlonger.Change
wouldhavetowaituntillater,perhapsuntilthesuccessorssecondpresidentialterm.
Oncechangecomes,itcouldprovedestabilizing.AfutureRussianleaderlaunchingmajorreformsinthemiddle
ofthethirddecadeofthetwenty-firstcenturywouldhavetocontendwithamultitudeofchallenges,including
anadversedemographicsituationinRussia
astagnanteconomy
technologicalbackwardnessofRussianindustry
highbarrierstodomesticandforeigninvestmentexcessivegovernmentregulation,weakruleoflaw,
corruption,andpoorinfrastructureand
ahighlycompetitiveinternationalenvironment.
Thegeographicexpanseofthecountryandproximityofitsvariousregionstoothereconomicandgeopolitical
gravitationalpolesChina,Turkey,Europewillcreatepowerfulcentrifugalforcesandgreatlycomplicatethe
taskofthefederalgovernmentofmanagingtheeconomyandpoliticalsystem.Russia,whichisorganizedasa
federation,couldfacesomeofthesameseparatisttendenciesthattheSovietUnionencounteredamongits
constituentrepublicsinitsfinalyears.Alternatively,thiscouldresultinasignificantdelegationofpowerand
authoritytotheregions.ThepossibilityoffurtherfragmentationoftheRussianstatehastobeconsideredasone
ofrealcontingenciestofaceRussiaattheendofthe2020s.
Putinsdeparturefromthepoliticalsceneattheendofthecurrenttermdoesnotguaranteethathissuccessor
wouldundertakesignificantreformsindomesticorforeignpolicy.However,shouldsuchreformsbeattempted,
theycouldresultinasignificantdestabilizationofRussia.
IfPutinStays
TheprospectofPutinsreelectiontoafourthpresidentialtermin2018raisesthecriticalquestionofwhetherhe
iscapableofchange.Putinsreturntothepresidencyin2012provedasetbackforRussiasreformersand
advocatesofmodernizationafteraperiodwhenprospectsforeconomicandpoliticalmodernizationlooked
relativelybright.Since2012,theyhavedimmedconsiderably,andintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisisthey
appeartobenearlyextinguished.
Theneedforchangeinthecountryseconomicandpoliticallifecloselyrelatedtoeachotheriswidely
understoodandacknowledgedinRussiansociety.Itisequallywidelyunderstoodthatsignificantchangecould
provedestabilizingfortheestablishedpoliticalsystem.Asmentioned,theexperienceoftheGorbachev-era
reformscontinuestoserveasapotentcautionaryreminderofthedangersassociatedwithradicalchange.
Russiaisfacingadifficultdecadeoradecadeandahalf,
regardlessofPutinscourse.
Putinhasfirmlyandrepeatedlyrejectedtheideaofpoliticalmodernizationasathreattothecountrysstability.
Hisentirethirdtermcanbedescribedasantimodernization,includingsuppressionofcivilsociety,isolationof
RussiafromEuropeandtheUnitedStates,propagandaofso-calledtraditionalRussianvaluesasdifferentfrom
Europeanvaluesandnorms,prouddeclarationsthatRussiaisnotEurope,andapushtoautarkyineconomic
developmenttoinoculatethecountryfromthethreatofWesternsanctions.MovesbytheKremlintoassertthe
supremacyofRussianlawsoverinternationaltreatiessignedbyRussiaanddisconnectthecountryfromthe
InternetaresymbolicoftheantimodernizationspiritthathaspermeatedRussianpoliticsandpolicymakingsince
Putinsreturntothepresidency.
Putinhasraisedtheissueofeconomicmodernizationinhisspeechesrepeatedly.However,hisrecordinoffice
sincehisaccessiontothepresidencyin2000ofconsistent,step-by-step,deliberateconsolidationofpolitical
powerandeconomicleversinthehandsofthestateorasmallgroupofassociatescloselytiedtothestate
speaksmuchlouderthanhiswords.Ifheweretobecomeamodernizerlateinhispoliticalcareer,itwouldbea
radicaldeparturefromeverythinghehasdoneuntilnow.
Increasingly,economicmodernizationinRussiarequirespoliticalmodernizationaswell,andashiftfromthe
small,Kremlin-centeredoligarchytoamoreopeneconomicsystemwithstrongerruleoflaw,transparency,and
adegreeofcompetitiveness.Thatwillrequirereformsthatwouldchallengetheverypoliticalorderthatforthe
pastdecadeandahalfhasservedasthefoundationofRussiandomesticstabilityandPutinspersonalpowerand
hasitsrootsinthesystemthatemergedsoonafterthebreakupoftheSovietUnion.Theoutlookforachangeof
suchmagnitudeisnotencouragingfortheforeseeablefuture.
Underthepresentconstitutionalarrangement,andassumingPutinisreelectedin2018,hewillremaininoffice
until2024.Hewillbeseventy-onethenstillrelativelyyoungandquiteplausiblynotreadytodepartthepolitical
stage.TheprospectofPutinremainingatthehelmasfaras2030isquitereal,justastheprospectofhis
changingcourseisquiteremote.
ThisisnottosaythatRussiawillcontinueindefinitelyalongitspresentglidepath.Theabsenceofreformsand
lackofprogresstowardmodernizingthecountryspoliticalsystemandeconomyareboundtotaketheirtollon
itseconomy,itspolitics,anditsinternationalstanding.Thisisalmostcertaintotriggerdiscontinuitiespolitical,
security,andeconomic.Thatsaid,anyattemptbyPutinorhissuccessortotacklethischallengeisfraughtwith
significantrisksofdiscontinuity.Inshort,Russiaisfacingadifficultdecadeoradecadeandahalf,regardlessof
Putinscourse.
Theweaknessofandsevererestrictionsonoppositionpoliticalpartiesandcivicorganizationsvirtuallypreclude
thepossibilityofapowerfulstructuredchallengetothePutinregime.However,therestrictionsonorganized
politicalactivitiescandolittletolimitspontaneousmanifestationsofdiscontentandgrassrootsactionsinresponse
toadecliningstandardofliving,actionsoflocalauthorities,orintercommunal,interracial,orinterconfessional
tensions.130Thegrowthofsuchprotestactivitiescould,overtime,developintoapersistentpattern,creating
opportunitiesforpoliticalchallengestotheregime.Theregimesinabilityorunwillingnesstotackletheunderlying
economicpoliticalandeconomicproblemscouldexacerbatethechallengeandthethreattothecountrys
domesticstability.
Inadditiontothechallengetothecountryspoliticalstability,thelonglistofproblemsfacingtheRussian
governmentintheconditionsofastagnanteconomyandshrinkingresourcesincludesthethreatofyetanother
destabilizationintheNorthCaucasus,whererelativepeaceandstabilityhavebeenmaintainedthroughmassive
federaltransfersandcutsindefensespending,socialprograms,science,education,andotherprograms.131
Combinedwithlackofinvestmenteveninthecriticalenergysector,thesecutsthreatencascadinglong-term
effectsontheeconomy,furtherunderminingitsabilitytoinnovate,diversify,andgrow,allofwhichpointtothe
systemiccrisis.132
ChallengesAbroad
TomakemattersworseforRussianpolicymakers,theexternalenvironmenttheyarelikelytofacealongthe
immediateperipheryofRussiaandbeyondpromisestobeequallychallenging.TheUkrainecrisishas
compoundedthechallengesRussiannationalsecurityexpertshavelongfearedintheEuro-Atlantictheater.At
thesametime,thebreakinrelationswithEuropeandtheUnitedStateshasnotresultedinnewpartnershipsor
alliancesforRussiaelsewhere.Thishasoccurredatatimeofmajornewinstabilityintheinternationalarenain
generalandinregionsnearRussiainparticular.
ASelf-FulfillingProphecyinEurope
InEurope,RussianthreatperceptionsandconcernsaboutNATOslowlymovingitsmilitarycapabilitiestoward
itsbordersarebecomingaself-fulfillingprophecyintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisis.If,priortotheannexation
ofCrimeaandthewarineasternUkraine,Russiawasconsideredbytheallianceasapossible,albeitincreasingly
unlikely,partner,thenRussianactionsinUkrainehaveputanendtosuchhopesforpartnershipandtransformed
therelationshipintoonethatisopenlyadversarial.133Thealliancescommitmentnottopermanentlystation
substantialcombatforcesontheterritoriesofnewmembersinthecurrentandforeseeablesecurityenvironment
disappearedwiththeannexationofCrimea,theaggressionineasternUkraine,andRussianthreatsagainstthe
BalticstatesandotherNATOmembers.
TheUkrainecrisishasspurredNATOtoproceedwithactionspreviouslyconsideredonlyremoteandunlikely
possibilities.InresponsetowhatseniorNATOofficialsdescribeasthemostdangerousthreattoEurope,
NATOisundertakingaseriesofstepsthatincludethestationingofU.S.andotherNATOtroopsandpre-
positioningofequipment,includingheavyU.S.equipment,inthefrontlinestatesfromtheBaltictotheBlackSea
planningforandtrainingtodefendagainstRussianaggressionandestablishmentofrapidresponseandbroader
responseforces.134AndnowSweden,neutralfornearlytwocenturies,andFinland,neutralsince1948,are
havingactivedebatesaboutjoiningthealliance.135
Further,theUkrainecrisishaspromptedcallsfromWesternmilitaryanalyststocounterRussianthreatsto
EuropewiththeverysystemsthatRussianassessmentshavelonghighlightedasdestabilizingandmost
threateningintheeventofacrisis.136Acombinationoflong-range,stealth,andprecisiontechnologies,if
deployedbyNATOalliesinacrisis,wouldbethefulfillmentofRussiandefenseplannersworstexpectations.
However,asidefromthepurelymilitarythreats,moreuncertaintyandpossiblyturmoilarelikelytoconfront
RussiainitsWesternstrategicdirection.ThebiggestchallengefacingRussiaalongitswesternfrontieristhe
unsettledconflictwithUkraine.RussianactionsinvolvingUkrainehaveservedasasourceoflong-term,deep
enmitybetweentwocountriesthatpreviouslyhadexperiencednone.Furthermore,theyhavecreatedalong-term
sourceofinstabilityinlieuofthepredictable,ifstagnant,relationshipthathadexistedbetweenRussiaand
UkraineforthequartercenturyfromthebreakupoftheSovietUniontotheannexationofCrimea.
UkraineaProblemNeighbor
Ukrainesoutlookfortheforeseeablefuturecanbestbedescribedalongtwouneasytrajectoriesmuddling
throughorreturningtoRussiasorbit.Thisbleakprospectisaproductofseveralcircumstances:thelegacyof
SovietrulecombinedwiththemisruleofthefirstquartercenturyofindependencethatleftUkraineacorrupt
oligarchythedepletedeconomybadlydamagedbytheconflictineasternUkraineandreformsthatwerenever
implementedandthelackofinterestintheWesttosupportUkrainewiththesamecommitmentEuropeandthe
UnitedStatesmadetointegratetheformerWarsawPactcountriesandBalticstatesintotheWesternpolitical,
economic,andsecuritystructures.Inaddition,theconflictineasternUkraineislikelytobesettledonlyasfrozen
ratherthanresolved,thusleavingapermanentwoundinUkrainesdomesticpolitics,economy,andsecurity.
Themuddling-throughscenariohasUkrainestayingonitspresentcourseofdifficult,haltingpoliticaland
economicreformsforthedurationofPresidentPetroPoroshenkostermuntil2019.ThisscenariohasUkraine
makingintermittentprogressinthefollowingareas:someimprovementinitsinvestmentclimategradualstructural
reformsoftheeconomy,especiallytheenergysectorandheavyindustrydecentralizationandsomecurbingof
thepowerofoligarchs.Allofthesechangespromisetobedifficultandpoliticallychallenging,threateningto
underminethegovernmentsprecariousstandinginthepollsandpossiblyleadingtoearlyparliamentaryelections,
furthercomplicatingthegovernmentstask.Thisscenarioalsoentailsimplementingadifficultsecurity-sector
reform,reequippingthearmedforces,andadaptingtoahostofEU-mandatedrequirementsthatmakeup
UkrainesAssociationAgreementandfree-tradeagreementwiththeEU.Thisisahighlyambitiousagendathat
atbestcanbeonlypartlyfulfilled,evenbythemostambitiousreformersandwiththehelpofgenerousaid,which
isunlikelytomaterialize.Allthewhile,UkrainewouldbeunderseverepressurefromRussia.
Thealternativescenarioentailsastalledreformeffort,growingpopulardiscontent,andgridlockintheparliament.
Together,thesewouldhaveaparalyzingeffectontheabilityofthegovernmenttofunction.TheInternational
MonetaryFund(IMF)agreementwouldthenbejeopardized,leadingtoahaltinIMFassistancetoUkraine.
OtherdonorassistanceconditionedoncompliancewithIMFrequirementswouldalsobeimperiled.Thisturnof
eventswouldprecipitateanothercrisis,afailureoftherulingcoalitionandearlyparliamentaryandpossibly
presidentialelectionsrestoringtopoweralessreform-mindedleadershipandreturningUkrainetothe
dysfunctionaloligarch-dominatedstateithadbeeninpriortotheEuromaidanantigovernmentuprisingin2013
2014.ThisscenarioalsoentailsthenewgovernmentsgradualaccommodationwithRussiainexchangefor
financialsubsidiesintheformoffavorabletermsforgastradeorloans.TheaccommodationwithRussiawould
provecontroversialwithmanyinUkraine,leadingtoadividedpolityandpermanentpoliticaltensions,
polarization,andgovernmentdysfunction.
Ineitherscenario,fortheforeseeablefuture,Ukraineislikelytoremainafragilestatestrugglingwithdomestic
reformsandcaughtinatug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWest.NeitherRussianorEuropeandtheUnited
StatesislikelytocountonUkraineasareliablepartner.ForbothRussiaandtheWest,Ukrainepromisestobea
sourceofeconomicandsecuritychallengesaswellasamajorsubjectoflong-termtensionsanddiscordintheir
bilateralrelations.
BelarusanUnreliableAlly
Similarlycaughtinatug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWestisUkrainesnorthernneighborBelarus.Ruledbya
wilyauthoritarianleader,AleksandrLukashenko,formorethantwodecades,thecountryhassurvivedinlarge
measurethankstoitsspecialrelationshipwithRussiaandhugesubsidiesfromMoscow,coupledwitha
repressiveregimethathassucceededineliminatingormarginalizingallopposition.
SincethecrisisinUkraine,LukashenkohassoughttodistancehimselfsomewhatfromMoscowandrebuild
bridgestotheWest.HiseffortshavemetwithreciprocalstepsonthepartoftheEU.137Someofthisoutreachto
theWestisnodoubtduetothediminishingeconomicprospectsinrelationswithRussiaandtheneedfor
economicassistancetokeeptheregimeafloat.138
Lukashenko,whoissixty-one,couldremaininofficeforanotherdecadeorlonger.Withhisskillatnavigating
betweenRussiaandtheWestprovedoverthecourseoftwodecadesandhisholdonpowerunchallenged,he
couldcontinuetomaneuverbetweenthetwoopposingsidesforanequallylongtime.
ThegreatestriskforLukashenkoorhissuccessorisinarapprochementwiththeWestthatRussiawouldfind
threateningtoitsinterests.TheBelarusianborderisbarely300milesfromMoscow.Apro-Westerngovernment
inMinskwouldundoubtedlybeseenbytheKremlininequallythreateningtermsasUkrainespursuitofan
AssociationAgreementwiththeEU,ifnotmoreso.BelarusiscloselyintegratedinRussiandefenseplansto
counterNATORussiahasambitionsforfurtherintegrationandexpansionofitsmilitarypresencethere.139
LukashenkosstatedoppositiontoaRussianairbaseinBelarusislikelytobeseeninMoscowasasignthatthe
Belarusianleaderisnotareliableallyandcannotbetrusted.140
AchangeinBelarussstrategicorientation,eitherasaresultofadeliberatedecisionbyLukashenkoorhis
successor,orasaconsequenceofadomesticupheaval,couldforcetheKremlinshandtolaunchyetanother
militaryintervention.ThistimeitwouldbedirectlyonRussiasborderwiththreeNATOmemberstatesLatvia,
Lithuania,andPoland.
MoldovaMoreoftheSame?
Impoverished,smallMoldovahasneverrecoveredfromthelegacyofitsconflictfrozensince1992withthe
RussianminorityinbreakawayTransnistria.Thecountryhasbeenshakenbyrepeatedscandalsandpolitical
proteststhathaveincapacitateditsgovernment.Moldovaremainsdividedbetweenthosewhoadvocatecloser
tieswithRomania,fromwhichitslargepartwassplitoffin1940asaresultoftheMolotov-RibbentropPact,
andthosewhowantclosertieswithRussia.141
Moldovaspoliticshasbeendysfunctionalformostofitshistoryasanindependentstate.Thereislittleinthe
countryscurrentpoliticaloreconomiclandscapeandoutlooktosuggestthatthenear-permanentgridlockis
likelytochangeandbereplacedbyabetter-functioninggovernmentthatwouldmovethecountryclosereitherto
RomaniaandtheEUortoRussia.Thepoliticalparalysisandeconomicstagnationarethereforelikelytocontinue
indefinitely,astheyhaveformuchofthepastquartercentury.
AnotherpossiblescenarioforMoldovaoverthenextdecadeoradecadeandahalfentailsagradualmigration
ofMoldovancitizenstoRomania,takingadvantageofRomaniasofferofpassports.Thiswouldeffectively
continuethetrendofworking-ageMoldovansleavingtheirhomelandasguestworkerselsewhereinEuropeorin
Russia.AccordingtoWorldBankdata,between2011and2015,personalremittancesamountedtomorethan
25percentofMoldovasGDP.142RussiaseconomicslowdownislikelytoaffectMoldovanguestworkers
there,increasingpressurestomigratetoEurope.RussiansanctionsagainstMoldovainretributionforitssigning
anAssociationAgreementwiththeEUarelikelytofurtherrestrictMoldovanguestworkersaccesstoRussia,
thusincreasingpressuresformigrationtoRomania.143Thiswouldineffectstimulateagradualhollowingoutof
MoldovaanditsdefactointegrationwithRomania.Aslongasthisprocessdoesnottriggeractionsleadingtoa
moreformalintegrationandanadversereactionfromRussia,thestatusquoinMoldovawouldremain.
FromaBuddingPartnershiptoHostilityWithTurkey
OneofRussiasmajorbreakthroughrelationshipsaftertheColdWarwaswithTurkey.Thetwohistoricalrivals
builtanewrelationshipbasedonrecognitionofmutualbenefits.144Turkeyquicklyemergedasamajor
destinationforRussiantraders,tourists,andenergycompanies.Turkishcompaniesestablishedthemselvesinthe
Russianrealestatedevelopmentindustry,andTurkishagriculturalproducersfoundareadymarketfortheir
exportsinRussia.145
DefyingthelegacyoftheColdWarandcenturiesofgeopoliticalrivalrypriortothat,RussiaandTurkey
developedapartnershipthatseemeddestinedtogetstronger.Theirpartnershipwasbuoyedbytwoimportant
factors.First,bothcountriesstruggledtofindtheirplaceinEurope,which,despitepromisesofpartnership,kept
thematarmslength.Theotherfactorwastheblossomingpersonalrelationshipbetweenthetwocountries
presidents,PutinandRecepTayyipErdoan.Bothproudoftheirreputationsasstrongleaderstransformingtheir
countries,bothincreasinglyaccusedofauthoritarianbehaviorathomeandcriticizedforitabroad,thetwo
presidentsweredescribedinaWashingtonPostarticlesheadlineasmadeforeachother.146Thecivilwarin
Syria,inwhichRussiahassupportedthegovernmentofSyrianPresidentBasharal-AssadandTurkeyhas
soughttooverthrowit,hasintroducedfrictionsintherelationshipbetweenAnkaraandMoscowbutdidnot
changewhatPutindescribedasitsfriendlyandcooperativenature.147
TheRussian-Turkishrelationship,whichhadbeenfullof
promiseanddeliveredmuchtobothcountries,almost
instantlyrevertedtoitsoldadversarialrootswithnoprospect
ofimprovementintheforeseeablefuture.
ThemajorshiftinrelationsbetweenTurkeyandRussia,rekindlingtalkabouttheircenturies-oldgeopolitical
rivalry,occurredinlateNovember2015,whenaTurkishF-16fightershotdownaRussianSu-24groundattack
aircraft.148TheTurkishgovernmentsaidatthetimethattheRussianaircrafthadviolatedTurkishairspacea
claimdisputedbytheRussiangovernment.PutindescribedTurkishactionsasastabinthebackandreferred
totheTurkishgovernmentasaccomplicesofterrorism.149PutinreportedlyrefusedtheTurkishpresidents
outreachattempts,andtheRussiangovernmentproceededtoimposeeconomicsanctionsonTurkey.150A
relationshipthathadbeenfullofpromiseforbothcountriesanddeliveredsomuchtobothalmostinstantly
revertedtoitsoldadversarialrootswithnoprospectofimprovementintheforeseeablefuture.151
InstabilityintheSouthCaucasus
HavingregainedCrimea,andwithitsecureditsholdontheBlackSeaFleetbaseinSevastopol,Russiahas
sealedthetransformationoftheBlackSeaintoalong-termhostileenvironment.NoneoftheBlackSealittoral
statescanbecountedonasapartnerbyRussianmilitaryplanners.AllexceptforUkraineandGeorgiaare
NATOmembers.KyivandTbilisiviewRussiaasanaggressorandthebiggestthreattotheirsurvivalas
independentandsovereignstates,andbothhavemademembershipinthealliancethekeygoaloftheirnational
securitypolicies.ThesituationintheBlackSearegionisfurtheraggravatedfromMoscowsstandpointbythe
breakdowninRussian-TurkishrelationsfollowingRussiasmilitarydeploymenttoSyriaandtheshootingdownof
theRussianaircraftbyTurkey.
ThesituationintheSouthCaucasusishardlymorereassuringforRussiandefenseplanners,albeitfordifferent
reasons,largelyunconnectedtoNATO.Theregion,hometothreefrozenconflictsinNagorno-Karabakh,
Abkhazia,andSouthOssetia,ishighlylikelytoundergomajorchangesasafunctionofitsinternaldynamicsand
developmentsarounditinthenextfivetotenyears.
AmajordriverofchangeintheSouthCaucasuspromisestobeAzerbaijan.Hailedinthe1990sasasecular
Islamiccountrywithamoderateauthoritarianregimepresidedoverbyarelativelytolerantpro-Westernleader,
Azerbaijanalsohadvasteconomicpotentialthankstoitsoilwealthandopennesstoforeignoilcompanies
investment.Little,ifany,ofthatpromisehasmaterialized.Therelativelybenignandconfidentdictatorshipof
HeydarAliyevwasreplacedin2003bythekleptocratic,increasinglyinsecure,andhighlyintolerantregimeofhis
sonIlham.Theregimesappealtothepublicbasedonitsclaimofdeliveringameasureofwell-beinghasbeen
erodedbythedeclineinthepriceofoilthathasdealtasevereblowtoAzerbaijanseconomy.152Moreover,the
prospectofdepletingitsmajoroildepositsthreatensthecountrywiththelossofitscriticalsourceofrevenueata
timewhenitsalternativestrategyofpositioningitselfasakeysupplierandtransithubofnaturalgashasto
contendwiththesamefalloutfromthelowoilpriceenvironment.153
Theproteststhathaverockedthecountryastheeconomysputtersraisequestionsabouttheregimeslongevity
andabilitytosustaindomesticstability.Intheeventofaprolongedeconomicslumpcausedbylowoilprices,
IlhamAliyevsregimewouldhaveseveraloptions,noneofthemmutuallyexclusive:tocontinuetotightenthe
restrictionsontheoppositionandcivilsocietytotrytouseitsdecliningfinancialresourcestoaddressthemost
pressingneedsandtoappealtonationalunityandpatriotismbyexploitingthethemeofNagorno-Karabakhand
launchingamilitarycampaigntoregaintheoccupiedterritories.154
TheoutlookforAzerbaijancontainsbleakalternatives.Oneofthemisaninternaldestabilizationandlossof
controlbytheregime.AnotherwouldberenewedconflictwithArmeniaoverNagorno-Karabakh.Athird
possibilityentailsboth.
IlhamAliyevssuppressionofnotjustalloppositionbutnearlyallcivicorganizationsandmanifestationsof
independentopinionhasunderminedAzerbaijanstieswithEuropeandtheUnitedStates.Asaresult,theWest
wouldnothavethenecessaryleveragetomoderatetheregimesbehaviordomesticallyorinternationally.155
ThefightingthatbrokeoutbetweenArmeniaandAzerbaijaninApril2016servedasagrimreminderofhow
fragilethesituationisalongtheirlineofcontact.Tomakemattersworse,acrisisinvolvingAzerbaijanand
Armeniacoulddrawintoitthreecriticalexternalactors:Russia,Turkey,andIran.Allthreehavemajorstakesin
theregion.RussiaandTurkeywouldverylikelybepittedagainsteachotherinthenewconflictsupportingtheir
respectiveclientstates.InternalturmoilinAzerbaijanevenwithoutaconflictwithArmeniawouldalmostcertainly
involvemeddlingbyallthreeneighboringpowers,eachforitsownreasonsseekingtoexpanditsinfluenceinthe
country,whichtheyconsidertobeofcriticalgeopoliticalimportance.
AcrisisinvolvingAzerbaijanandArmeniacoulddrawintoit
threecriticalexternalactors:Russia,Turkey,andIran.
WithRussia,Turkey,andIrancompetingforinfluenceinAzerbaijan,thecountryandthesurroundingregion
couldexperiencespilloversfromtheconflictandtheneighborsreactionstoit.Thesewouldalmostcertainly
affectArmeniaandGeorgia,consideringtheboundarylinesdrawnwithoutregardtoethnicdivisions,and
infrastructureandsupplyroutesthattraversetheentireregion.
Predictingtheoutcomeofthisturmoilisaninherentlydifficulttask.Russia,Iran,andTurkeyallhaveadvantages
anddisadvantagesintheirpursuitofinfluenceoverAzerbaijan.RussiaandIranhavetheadvantageofshared
borderswithAzerbaijan,whileTurkeyhastheadvantageofethnickinshipandlong-terminvestmentinthe
relationshipwithAzerbaijan.However,RussiahashadtodealwithitsowntroubledNorthCaucasusIranhasto
bemindfulofitsownAzerbaijaniTurkishpopulationandTurkeywouldhavetocrossGeorgianorArmenian
territorytogettoAzerbaijan.Allofthesearelikelytobecomplicatingfactorsfortheirinvolvementthere,though
eachofthesecomplicatingfactorscouldserveasarationaleforinterveninginAzerbaijaniturmoil.
TheturmoilcouldlastforyearsandbecomepartofthelargerturmoilintheMiddleEast,withIranandTurkey
pittedagainsteachotherinSyria,Russian-TurkishrelationsattheirworstsincetheColdWar,andweapons,
refugees,militants,andillicitgoodscrossinginalldirections.TheCaucasusregionmaynotseestabilityreturnfor
adecadeorlonger.
Onceameasureofstabilityisrestored,theregion,boththeNorthandtheSouthCaucasus,maynotbe
recognizable,withnewbordersandpossiblyevensomestatesdisappearingfromthemap.Theshapeofthe
regionislikelytobedeterminedbydevelopmentsaroundtheregionRussiasowntrajectoryandabilityto
securetheNorthCaucasusTurkeysabilitytohandleitsKurdishproblemthefutureofIraqandtheconflictin
Syria.AllofthesewillhaveabearingontheCaucasusregion,whichisnolongerseparated,asitoncewas,from
theGreaterMiddleEast.Whatisclear,however,isthattheregionisheadingintoanuncertainfuturefullof
dangersallofthatonRussiasdoorstep.
ATransitioninCentralAsia
CentralAsiaisinthemidstofabiggeopoliticalchangewhoseconsequencesforRussiaandEurasiaarelikelyto
befeltinthenextdecadeandbeyond.Thefirstquartercenturyofindependenceforthefivestatesofformerly
SovietCentralAsiawasatimeofestablishingtheirownstatehood,securingtheirsovereignty,andbuildinglinks
totheoutsideworld.Formuchofthatperiod,theWest,andespeciallytheUnitedStates,playedakeyroleasa
supporterofthefivestatesindependence,sovereignty,andintegrationintotheinternationalarena.156
WiththeUnitedStatesandEuropelargelyout,Russian
influencedown,andChinaascendantinCentralAsia,the
regionisallbutcertaintoshiftitsgeopoliticalorientationfrom
theWesttotheEast.
DuringthepostColdWarperiodoftheWestsdominance,thenewstatesintegrationintotheinternational
arenawastoaverylargeextentequatedwithbuildingtiestoWesternstructurestheOrganizationforSecurity
andCooperationinEurope,theWorldBank,andtheIMF,aswellasNATOandtheEU.Moreover,thanksto
theU.S.-ledcampaigninAfghanistan,theWestservedasamajorsecurityprovidertoCentralAsiafornearlya
decadeandahalfaftertheSeptember11,2001,terroristattacks.Insum,forthefirstquartercenturyofCentral
Asiasindependence,theWestplayedakeyroleinensuringtheregionssecurity.EvenRussia,asaEuropean
power,albeitnotcontenttoseetheUnitedStatesanditsNATOalliesinvolvedinitsjealouslyguarded
backyard,ineffectservedasaconnectiontoEuropeforCentralAsia.
Thatisnowchanging.TheUnitedStatesisactivelylookingtodisengagefromAfghanistan,orattheveryleastto
minimizeitsrolethere,whilemanyU.S.allieshavepulledtheirforcesoutofAfghanistanaltogether.TheWests
roleasasecurityproviderforCentralAsiaisending.
Tradeandinvestmentflows,too,aredrivingCentralAsiatowardadifferentgravitationalpolefromtheWest
China.ChinastradewithCentralAsiahasincreasedmorethanahundredfoldinthepastquartercenturyand
passedthe$50billionmarkin2013.Chineseinvestmentinpipelines,roads,andenergyexplorationismeasured
inthetensofbillionsofdollarsandisprojectedtogrowfurther,asChinaplansambitiousnewprojectsforthe
regioninthenextdecade.RussiahasbeenlosingtheeconomiccompetitionwithChinainCentralAsia,whilethe
UnitedStatesandEuropebarelyregisterastradepartners.157
WiththeUnitedStatesandEuropelargelyout,Russianinfluencedown,andChinaascendantinCentralAsia,the
regionisallbutcertainfortheforeseeablefuturetoshiftitsgeopoliticalorientationfromtheWest,towhichitwas
leaningduringthefirstquartercenturyofitsindependence,totheEast.Thisisboundtohavefar-reaching
consequencesforallinvolved.
FortheCentralAsianstates,aswellasforRussiaandChina,thismeansthattheUnitedStateswillnolongerbe
providingsecurityfortheregion.AgreaterburdeninthisrespectwillfallontheCentralAsiastatesthemselves,
aswellasontheirimmediateneighbors,especiallyRussiaandChina.ThisraisesthequestionofRussiasability
toactastheregionssecuritymanagerforCentralAsiainlightofMoscowslimitedcapabilitiesandchallenges
elsewhere,andofChinaswilltoengageintheregioninaroleithasbeenreluctanttoassume.Theresultofthis
changewillbegreateruncertaintyandpotentiallygreaterinstabilityfacingRussianplannersastheycontemplate
thefutureoftheregionthattheyhavelongviewedasamajorvulnerabilityontheirperiphery.Itseemsnothingis
stableandsecureonRussiasthresholdanywhere,initsfrontyardoritsbackyard.
Conclusion
AttheendofthefirstquartercenturyafterthebreakupoftheSovietUnion,Russiaisathreattoitsneighbors
andfeelsdeeplythreatenedbythem.Itssenseofvulnerabilityandinferiorityvis--vistheWestislong-standing
anddeep,anditissurroundedbyavast,diverse,andturbulentregionwithamultitudeofpotentialcrisesthat
holdoutthepossibilityofescalatingintolargerconflicts.ThisunstablesituationinEuropesEastandEurasiaisa
productoftheinterplayoverthepasttwenty-fiveyearsofmultiplefactors,bothindigenoustotheirhomeregions
andresultingfromactionsofoutsidepowersandexternaldevelopments.
ChiefamongthesefactorsisRussiasownevolutionfromaquietlydissenting,grumbling,butnonethelesslargely
passivebystanderindevelopmentofthepostColdWarEuro-Atlanticsecurityarchitectureintoitsactive
opponentandastatecapableofprojectingpowerarounditsperipheryandassertingitselfbeyonditsimmediate
neighborhoodindefenseofitsinterests.Aseriesofeventsthe2008Russian-GeorgianWar,the2014
annexationofCrimeaandthewarineasternUkraine,theemergenceofsecuritythreatstotheBaltics,the
economicstormsbuffetingRussiasneighborsfromMoldovatoTajikistanillustrateshowmuchswayRussia
continuestoholdoverthesecurityandwell-beingofthepost-Sovietstates,nomatterhowmuchtheyhavetried
toleavethatlabelbehindandbreakoutoftheRussiansphereofinfluence.
Russia,inotherwords,remainstheessentialsecuritypillarinEasternEuropeandEurasia.Astable,prosperous,
secure,andfriendlyRussiaisfarmorelikelytobeasourceofthesametoitsneighborsthanthealternativean
insecure,unstable,andstrugglingRussia,whichhascastalonganddarkshadowoverthem.
UnfortunatelyforRussiasneighborsandfortheirfriends,allies,andpartners,theprospectofastable,
prosperous,secure,andfriendlyRussiaisremote.Theoutlookforthecountryfortheforeseeablefutureisbleak
absentmajorreforms,whereassuchreformsappearunlikely.
NowhereisthesenseofpessimismaboutRussiasprospectsmoreacutethaninsideRussiaitself.Itpermeates
Russianassessmentsofthecountryseconomicconditionandprospects,itspoliticalstability,anditsmilitaryin
relationtothethreatsandchallengestoitssecurity.Foremostamongthesesecuritythreats,intheviewofRussian
defenseexperts,isNATO,followedcloselybyfragilestatesaroundRussiasperiphery.
Thetransatlanticsecurityorderintendedasaframeworkforbringingunity,security,andstabilitytoallofEurope,
includingRussia,isseenbyitssecurityestablishmentastheprincipalchallengetoitssecurityandstability,
intendedtoexploititsmanyvulnerabilities.ThisassessmentofWesternmotivesandactionsresultingfromthem
hasenduredwithremarkableconsistencyintheRussiannationalsecuritynarrativesincetheearliestdaysofthe
post-SovietRussianstatetothepresent.ItisthedominantviewinMoscowsnationalsecurityestablishmentwith
nodissentingvoicesofanyconsequence.
EquallyenduringandwidespreadamongRussianelitesandexpertsistheperceptionofRussiasdeepinferiority
economically,militarilyvis--vistheWest.ThecombinationofRussiasinsecurityanditsperceptionofthe
WestshostilitytoithasbeentheprincipaldriverofRussiansecuritypolicy.TherejectionofexpansionbyNATO
andtheEUintocountriesapparentlygenuinelyviewedbyRussianpolicymakersaswithintheirsphereof
privilegedinterests,coupledwiththefearoftheWesternsecurityandpoliticalorderapproachingRussias
borders,wasthekeymotivatorbehindthewarwithGeorgiaandtheundeclaredwaragainstUkraine.This
underlyingRussianworldviewisunlikelytochangeintheforeseeablefuture.
TheemergingnewsecurityorderwithNATOrethinkingitspostColdWarpostureforthefirsttimeina
quartercenturyandrebuildingitsdeterrentcapabilitiesandwithRussiabuildingupitsmilitarycapabilitiesalong
itswesternborderisunstableandunpredictable.BothRussiaandtheWestfeelinsecureandcompelledtodo
more,raisingtherisksofanescalatorydynamicinthenameofdefenseanddeterrence.
NothingjustifiesRussiasundeclaredwaragainstUkraine,whichviolatedmultipleRussianinternational
commitmentsandhastriggeredtheworstpoliticalandsecuritycrisisinEuropeinageneration.However,in
devisingtheirresponsetoRussianactions,Westernpolicymakersshouldbeclearaboutthedriversand
motivationsofRussianactionstheinsecurityandperceptionofvulnerabilityasregardstheWest,ingrainedin
Russiasnationalsecurityestablishmentforageneration.Westernpolicymakersshouldalsobeclearthat
MoscowhasneveracceptedtheargumentthattheexpansionofWesterninstitutionswasmeantasamove
towarditratherthanagainstit.
WesterndiscussionsaboutthenewlydiscoveredvulnerabilityofNATOalliesthatborderRussia,especiallythe
Balticstates,mustnotoverlookthefactthattheBalticstatesmembershipinNATOhasmeanttoRussian
militaryplannersthatNATO,stillseenasahostilealliance,isnowonly100milesfromSaintPetersburg,andthat
thecurrentbuildupofNATOcapabilitiesintheBalticstatesisoccurringlessthanatwo-hourdrivefromRussias
secondmostimportantcity.Westernpolicymakersshouldhavenoillusionsthatthebuildupofdefenseand
deterrentcapabilitiesinthefrontlinestateswillhaveastabilizingeffectonthestandoffbetweenNATOand
Russia.ThebuildupofRussiananti-accessandarea-denial(A2/AD)capabilitiesinCrimeaandKaliningradand
threatstodeploynuclearweaponstherearestrongindicatorsthattensionswillincreaseratherthansubsidein
theseregions.158
Inthiscontext,themostdisturbingaspectofthisrenewedadversarialrelationshipisthereturnofthespecterof
nuclearwartotheEuropeancontinent.Russiaslong-standingperceivedinferiorityvis--visNATOs
conventionalcapabilitiesandtheirproximitytotheRussianheartlandhavegivenrisetoamilitarystrategythat
assignsacriticalroletolimitednuclearstrikesearlyinaconflictasameansofthwartingNATOsconventional
dominanceandendingtheconflictbeforeitresultsindevastatinglossestotheheartland.Defenseofthe
homelandhastakenonenhancedprioritybecauseafterthelossoftheouterandinnerempiresandtheexpansion
ofNATO,ithasbecometheforwardareainanyfutureconflictbetweenRussiaandNATO.
Needlesstosay,anyuseofnuclearweaponswillbeadecisionmadebyRussiaspoliticalleadership,andexpert
writingsaboutearlynuclearuseshouldnotbetreatedasareliableindicatoroffutureRussianactions.
Nonetheless,theprominenceofnuclearweaponsinRussianstrategicthoughtisindicativeofthecountrys
perceivedvulnerabilitiesandintensityoftheadversarialrelationshipwiththeWest.
FortheUnitedStatesanditsallies,thisposesadauntingchallengehowtorespondtoRussianactionsina
mannerthatensuresacredible,robustdeterrentposturethatisstabilizinganddoesnotfeedRussiasworst
perceptionsofitsownvulnerabilities.Relianceonnucleardeterrenceinthiscontextcouldproveescalatoryand
reinforceRussianmilitaryplannersnuclearleanings,whilerelianceonconventionalmeanswouldunderscore
Russiasperceivedvulnerabilities.
NowherewilltheadversarialrelationshipbetweenRussiaand
theWestplayoutwithgreaterintensitythaninEastern
Europe.
NowherewilltheadversarialrelationshipbetweenRussiaandtheWestplayoutwithgreaterintensitythanin
EasternEuropethestatesoftheformerSovietUnionthathavenotjoinedtheEuro-Atlanticpolitical,
economic,andsecurityinstitutionsandareunwillingtojointheRussian-dominatedcounterpartEurasian
structures.Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia,Moldova,andUkrainehavebecomethebattlegroundstates,
toonedegreeoranotherpulledindifferentdirectionsinthegeopoliticaltug-of-warbetweenRussiaandthe
West.
Much,ifnotmost,oftheattentionfollowingRussiasaggressionagainstUkrainehasbeenfocusedontheBaltic
statesastheNATOalliesmostexposedandvulnerabletoRussianattack.Balticdefenseisundoubtedlyamajor
challengeforthealliance.However,Russianactionsbefore,during,andsincetheaggressionagainstUkraine
suggestthatMoscowstilltakesNATOsArticle5securityguaranteeofitsmembersseriouslyandthatitisnot
preparedtotestthatguaranteedirectly.Rather,itsactionsinformationandcyberoperations,airspace
violations,nuclearsaberrattling,andthelikeappearaimedatcreatinganairofuncertaintyaboutthat
guaranteeandunderminingmemberstatesconfidenceinit.Russianleadershavedemonstratedtwicebytheir
actionsinGeorgiain2008andinUkrainesince2014thattheytakethatguaranteeseriously.Russianleaders
wenttowartwicetopreventthetwocountriesfrommovingclosertotheWestandeventuallyastheysawit
joiningNATO.
TheexperiencesofUkraineandGeorgiahaveprofoundimplicationsforthesixbattlegroundstates.Lacking
NATOssecurityguarantee,theyremaininwhatMoscowperceivesasitssphereofprivilegedinterests.Itis
preparedtouseallavailablemeans,includingmilitaryforce,tokeeptheminthatsphere.AslongastheWestis
notpreparedtoconsignthesestatestotheRussiansphere,theybecomethearenaforEast-Westcompetition.
Despitethisadversarialrelationship,inmanyinstances,theUnitedStatesanditsallieswillhavenochoicebutto
cooperatewithRussia,oratleastseekitsconsenttopursuetheirinterestsinEurasia.Besidestheobvious
examplesofSyria,Afghanistan,ornucleartalkswithIran,inallofwhichRussiahasplayedanimportantpart,
futureexamplesofsuchsituationsmayinvolvecontingenciesinEasternEurope,theSouthCaucasus,orCentral
Asia.Inallofthoselocations,whetherforreasonsofgeography,politics,oreconomics,theUnitedStatesandits
allieswillneedtogetRussiaonboardtobeabletorespondtonaturaldisasters,humanitariancrises,regional
conflicts,orotherunforeseenevents.
AbsentmajorchangesinoutlookonthepartofeitherRussia
orNATO,thisadversarialrelationshipwillremainthekey
featureoftheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderfortheforeseeable
future.
Moreover,evenintimeswhencircumstancesforceRussiaandtheWesttocooperate,Russiaislikelytosustain
itsotherdestabilizingbehaviors.Theuseofmeasuresshortofwareconomicleversinstatesthatarevulnerable,
suchasBulgaria,Cyprus,orGreeceandbribery,blackmail,infiltrationofintelligenceoperatives,andan
assortmentofothertacticswillbepartofthetoolkitdeployedbyRussianpolicymakersintimesofcrisis,aswell
asinpeacetimeaspartofthenormalcontinuationofwarfarebyothermeans.
Russiasrelianceontheseformsofcompetitionshortofoutrightwarfareisfullyjustifiedintheeyesofthe
countryssecurityestablishmentasasymmetricmeanswarrantedbytheperceivedRussia-NATOimbalance.
RussianrelianceonthemandtheintensityofitsoppositiontotheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderareunlikelyto
diminishifitseconomicprospectsordomesticstabilityerode.Onthecontrary,suchreliancemaybecomeeven
greaterasotherinstrumentsinitstoolkitbecomescarcer.
AsseenfromRussia,theenvironmentinEuropeandEurasiahasleftMoscowwithoutreliablepartners,letalone
allies.NATOsexpansionhaspositionedthealliance,viewedbyRussianelitesasadversarial,onthecountrys
doorstep,farcloserthanithaseverbeen.TheothersideofthiscoinisthatRussiaisonNATOsdoorstepasit
hasneverbeenbefore.Theresultisastateofprofoundmutualinsecurity.Absentmajorchangesinoutlookon
thepartofeitherRussiaorNATO,thisadversarialrelationshipwillremainthekeyfeatureoftheEuro-Atlantic
securityorderfortheforeseeablefuture.Eventually,itwilltakeapolitical,notamilitary,solutiontoaddressthese
tensions.
Notes
1AEuropeWholeandFree,transcriptofremarksbyPresidentGeorgeH.W.BushtothecitizensinMainz,
FederalRepublicofGermany,U.S.DiplomaticMissiontoGermany,May31,1989,
http://usa.usembassy.de/etexts/ga6-890531.htm.
2DmitriTrenin,TheCrisisinCrimeaCouldLeadtheWorldIntoaSecondColdWar,Guardian,March2,
2014,http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/02/crimea-crisis-russia-ukraine-cold-war.
3ThisissueisdiscussedindetailinRajanMenonandEugeneRumer,ConflictinUkraine:TheUnwinding
ofthePostColdWarOrder(Cambridge,MA:MITPress,2015).
4OrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope(OSCE),HelsinkiFinalAct,August1,1975,
http://www.osce.org/mc/39501.
5OSCE,CharterofParisforaNewEurope,November21,1990,http://www.osce.org/node/39516.
6EuropeanUnion,TreatyofMaastrichtonEuropeanUnion,February7,1992,http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal-
content/EN/TXT/?uri=uriserv:xy0026.
7,:,
,281992,http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/31532.
8Ibid.
9YevgeniyAmbartsumov,InteresyRossiiNeZnayutGranits[Russianinterestsknownoborders],
Megapolis-Express,May6,1992.
10AleksandrVladislavlevandSergeyKaraganov,TyazhkiyKrestRossii[Russiasheavycross],
NezavisimayaGazeta,November11,1992.
11TimothyHeritage,Grachev:NATOGrowthaThreat,MoscowTimes,March28,1996,
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/grachev-nato-growth-a-threat/326450.html.
12JanePerlez,YeltsinUnderstandsPolishBidforaRoleinNATO,NewYorkTimes,August26,1993,
http://www.nytimes.com/1993/08/26/world/yeltsin-understands-polish-bid-for-a-role-in-nato.html.
13RogerCohen,YeltsinOpposesExpansionofNATOinEasternEurope,NewYorkTimes,October2,
1993,http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/02/world/yeltsin-opposes-expansion-of-nato-in-eastern-europe.html.
14Ibid.
15JamestownFoundation,ChubaisDemandsCompensationforNATOEnlargement,Monitor3,no.84
(April1997).
16SamuelHuntington,TheClashofCivilizationsandtheRemakingofWorldOrder(NewYork:Simon&
Schuster,1996)ZbigniewBrzezinski,TheGrandChessboard:AmericanPrimacyandItsGeostrategic
Imperatives(NewYork:BasicBooks,1997).
17DouglasJ.Gillert,AfterJumping,BattalionLearnstoCrawl,DoDNews,U.S.DepartmentofDefense,
October1,1997.
18ModestKolerov,BezSSSR[WithouttheUSSR](Moscow:Regnum,2008).
19Http://www.pressarchive.ru/nijegorodskie-novosti/1999/08/21/135100.html(pagediscontinued).
20:,
,,172015,http://glavred.info/mir/zhurnalist-rf-o-motivacii-putina-pomnit-sudby-
miloshevicha-kaddafi-i-dedushki-pinocheta-323242.html.
21CelesteA.Wallander,RussianNationalSecurityPolicyin2000(PONARS[ProgramonNewApproaches
toRussianSecurity]PolicyMemo102,DavisCenterforRussianStudies,HarvardUniversity,2000)Nikolai
Sokov,TheViewsoftheMilitaryLeadership,inModernizationofStrategicNuclearWeaponsinRussia:The
EmergingNewPosture(PONARSWorkingPaperNo.6,DavisCenterforRussianStudies,Harvard
University,May1998).
22GrossDomesticProduct:Russia19902014,WorldMacroeconomicResearch,19702014,
http://www.kushnirs.org/macroeconomics_/en/russia__gdp.html.
23PutinsPreparedRemarksat43rdMunichConferenceonSecurityPolicy,WashingtonPost,February12,
2007,http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/12/AR2007021200555.html.
24UweKlumann,MatthiasSchepp,andKlausWiegrefe,NATOsEastwardExpansion:DidtheWestBreak
ItsPromisetoMoscow?,SpiegelOnline,November26,2009,
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-s-eastward-expansion-did-the-west-break-its-promise-to-
moscow-a-663315.html.
25MaryEliseSarotte,ABrokenPromise?WhattheWestReallyToldMoscowAboutNATOExpansion,
ForeignAffairs,September/October2014,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2014-08-
11/broken-promise.
26SergeyLavrov,Democracy,InternationalGovernance,andtheFutureWorldOrder,RussiainGlobal
Affairs,no.1(February9,2005):http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/n_4422.
27CheneyChidesRussiaonDemocracy,BBC,May4,2006,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4972464.stm.
28StevenErlanger,Putin,atNATOMeeting,CurbsCombativeRhetoric,NewYorkTimes,April5,2008,
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/05/world/europe/05nato.htmlTextofPutinsSpeechatNATOSummit
(Bucharest,April2,2008),UnianInformationAgency,April18,2008,http://www.unian.info/world/111033-
text-of-putins-speech-at-nato-summit-bucharest-april-2-2008.html.
29MedvedevonRussiasInterests,Economist,September1,2008,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/certainideasofeurope/2008/09/medvedev_on_russias_interests.
30ChristianLowe,GeorgiaWarShowsRussianArmyStrongbutFlawed,Reuters,August20,2008,
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-georgia-ossetia-military-idUSLK23804020080820.
31RussianMilitaryCapability,FOI(SwedishDefenceResearchAgency),http://www.foi.se/en/Our-
Knowledge/Security-policy-studies/Russia/Russian-Military-Capability/.
32DmitryMedvedevsBuildingProject,Economist,November26,2009,
http://www.economist.com/node/14973198.
33UkrainesParliamentVotestoAbandonNatoAmbitions,BBC,June3,2010,
http://www.bbc.com/news/10229626.
34DavidM.HerszenhornandEllenBarry,LargeAnti-PutinProtestSignalsGrowingResolve,NewYork
Times,June12,2012,http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/world/europe/anti-putin-demonstrators-gather-in-
moscow.htmlHundredsDetainedAfterMoscowAnti-PutinProtest,Guardian,March5,2012,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2012/mar/05/russian-election-reaction-putin-liveRussianPresident
DmitryMedvedevAdmitsPoliticalReformNecessary,Telegraph,December22,2011,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8972807/Russian-President-Dmitry-Medvedev-
admits-political-reform-necessary.html.
35Russia,SovietStyle,NewYorkTimes,June12,2012,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/opinion/russia-soviet-style.html.
36KarounDemirjian,MeanwhileinRussia,PutinPassesLawAgainstProtests,WashingtonPost,July22,
2014,http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/07/22/meanwhile-in-russia-putin-passes-
law-against-protests/MiriamElder,RussiansFearCrackdownasHundredsAreArrestedAfterAnti-Putin
Protest,Guardian,March6,2012,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/mar/06/russians-crackdown-anti-
putin-protestKathyLallyandKarenDeYoung,PutinAccusesClinton,U.S.ofFomentingElectionProtests,
WashingtonPost,December8,2011,http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/putin-accuses-clinton-us-
of-stirring-election-protests/2011/12/08/gIQA0MUDfO_story.html.
37D.GarrisonGolubock,CultureMinistryAffirmsRussiaIsNotEurope,MoscowTimes,April7,2014,
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/arts_n_ideas/article/culture-ministry-affirms-russia-is-not-europe/497658.html.
38VladimirPutin,ANewIntegrationProjectforEurasia:TheFutureintheMaking,Izvestia,October3,
2011,asreprintedbythePermanentMissionoftheRussianFederationtotheEuropeanUnion,
http://www.russianmission.eu/en/news/article-prime-minister-vladimir-putin-new-integration-project-eurasia-
future-making-izvestia-3-.
39Ibid.
40EuropeanNeighbourhoodPolicy(ENP),EuropeanUnionexternalaction,http://eeas.europa.eu/enp/.
41OleksandrSushko,AForkintheRoad?UkraineBetweenEUAssociationandtheEurasianCustoms
Union(PONARSEurasiaPolicyMemoNo.293,September2013)tefanFle,StatementonthePressure
ExercisedbyRussiaonCountriesoftheEasternPartnership,pressrelease,EuropeanCommission,September
11,2013.
42AlexandraMcLeesandEugeneRumer,SavingUkrainesDefenseIndustry,CarnegieEndowmentfor
InternationalPeace,July30,2014,http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/07/30/saving-ukraine-s-defense-
industry.
4316%ofNaturalGasConsumedinEuropeFlowsThroughUkraine,U.S.EnergyInformation
Administration,March14,2014,http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=15411.
44JudyDempsey,U.S.SenatorUrgesUseofNATODefenseClauseforEnergy,InternationalHerald
Tribune,November28,2006,http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/28/world/europe/28iht-nato.3702073.html.
45Formoreonthis,seeMenonandRumer,ConflictinUkraine.
46DanLamothe,RussiaIsGreatestThreattotheU.S.,SaysJointChiefsChairmanNomineeGen.Joseph
Dunford,WashingtonPost,July9,2015,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/07/09/russia-is-greatest-threat-to-the-u-s-says-
joint-chiefs-chairman-nominee-gen-joseph-dunford/.
47JulianE.Barnes,NATOsBreedloveCallsforSharperFocusonRussiaAheadofDeparture,WallStreet
Journal,May1,2016,http://www.wsj.com/articles/natos-breedlove-calls-for-sharper-focus-on-russia-ahead-
of-departure-1462115561TheodoreSchleiferandJimSciutto,TopArmyLeader:RussiaIsMost
DangerousThreatFacingU.S.,CNN,August12,2015,http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/russia-
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48TheRussianNavy:AHistoricTransition,OfficeofNavalIntelligence,December18,2015,
http://news.usni.org/2015/12/18/document-office-of-naval-intelligence-report-on-russian-navy.
49,,,,,15
2016,http://www.ng.ru/courier/2016-02-15/9_friends.html.
50,,11
2015,http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50913.
51,,31
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52,:
,,102015,http://www.ng.ru/news/519934.html?
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53NATO-RussiaRelations:TheFacts,NorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization,lastupdatedDecember17,2015,
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54,,,23
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55RussianNationalSecurityStrategy,December2015Full-TextTranslation,InstitutoEspaoldeEstudios
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56Transcript:InterviewWithSergeiIvanov,FinancialTimes,June21,2015,
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57,,,222015,
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58,:,
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59,,.,29,2015,
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.
60,.
61,.
,,302015,http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2015-12-
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62,:.
63,:,,15
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64,2023-:,
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66,:,
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67:,,
222016,http://tass.ru/ekonomika/3303885,,,
292016,http://kommersant.ru/doc/2975531.
68,,,182015,http://vpk-
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69Ibid.
70NATOCondemnsPutinsNuclearSabre-Rattling,BBC,June16,2015,
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71DavidLermanandTerryAtlas,RussiasSaber-RattlingThreatensStability,U.S.Says,Bloomberg,June
25,2015,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-threatens-denmark-with-nuclear-weapons-
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72,,,
,272015,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2015-11-27/1_stairway.html.
73MaryC.Fitzgerald,MarshalOgarkovonModernWar:19771985,ProfessionalPaper443.10,Center
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74DoctorStrangeloveDoomsdayMachine,YouTubevideo,postedbyliberalartist6,July31,2010,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2yfXgu37iyI.
75RussiaRevealsGiantNuclearTorpedoinStateTVLeak,BBC,November12,2015,
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76,,-,252015,
http://vpk-news.ru/articles/24405.
77DavidE.Hoffman,In1983WarScare,SovietLeadershipFearedNuclearSurpriseAttackbyU.S.,
WashingtonPost,October24,2015,http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-1983-war-
scare-soviet-leadership-feared-nuclear-surprise-attack-by-us/2015/10/24/15a289b4-7904-11e5-a958-
d889faf561dc_story.html.
78Forathoroughdiscussionofthis,seePavelPodvig,DidStarWarsHelpEndtheColdWar?Soviet
ResponsetotheSDIProgram(workingpaper,RussianNuclearForcesProject,March17,2013).
79:,
,182015,http://ria.ru/interview/20150218/1048334517.html.
80Ibid.
81,,-,13
2014,http://www.vko.ru/strategiya/v-poiskah-strategicheskoy-stabilnosti.
82,,
,282012,http://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2012-09-
28/11_satan.html.
83,-,282013,http://vpk-
news.ru/news/16557.
84Ibid,,.,18
2004,http://polit.ru/article/2004/11/18/slipch/,
,,2013,http://www.intertrends.ru/thirty-
second/Volodin.pdf...
,Viperson.ru,302012,http://viperson.ru/wind.php?ID=652675.
85,
,:
,-,,,20
2020.,http://www.armscontrol.ru/pubs/em092012.htm.
86,,,-
,132014,http://www.vko.ru/geopolitika/ugrozy-bezopasnosti-rossii.
87,,,-,-
,212015,http://vpk-news.ru/articles/27617.
88Ibid.
89RussiaHasDeliveredOver1,000AirstrikesinSyriaSinceStartofYearGeneral,TASS,January11,
2016,http://tass.ru/en/defense/848749.
90,,,23
2014,http://www.ng.ru/armies/2014-09-23/1_rogozin.html.
91StepanKravchenko,PutinTellsDefenseChiefstoStrengthenRussianNuclearForces,Bloomberg,
December11,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-11/putin-tells-defense-chiefs-to-
strengthen-russian-nuclear-forces.
92,
,,122014,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-09-
12/1_oborona.html.
93,:4202,
,,222015,
http://www.mk.ru/politics/2015/07/22/istochnik-rossiya-ispytyvaet-giperzvukovoy-obekt-4202-kotoryy-
obescenit-amerikanskuyu-pro.html.
94,-.,
,162014,http://www.ng.ru/armies/2014-12-16/3_kartblansh.html.
95,:4202,
,,222015,
96PetrTopychkanov,IsRussiaAfraidofChineseandIndianMissiles?CarnegieMoscowCenter,November
3,2014,http://carnegie.ru/2014/11/03/is-russia-afraid-of-chinese-and-indian-missiles.
97,Newsru.com,4
2015,http://www.newsru.com/russia/04jul2015/midnukes.html.
98,,,3
2014,http://nvo.ng.ru/nvo/2014-10-03/1_strike.html.
99,,,-
100:,
-,282013,http://file-rf.ru/context/2324.
101Ibid.
102,,
,152016,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2016-01-15/10_infowar.html.
103:,
104ThedoctrineoftheRussianFederationInformationSecurity(inRussian),
http://www.scrf.gov.ru/documents/6/5.html.
105:,,13
2013,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2001-12-26/1_war.html.
106,,31
107AgenceFrance-Presse,VladimirPutinWarnsRussianstoAvoidGoogle:TheInternetIsaCIASpecial
Project,RawStory,April24,2014,http://www.rawstory.com/2014/04/vladimir-putin-warns-russians-to-
avoid-google-the-internet-is-a-cia-special-project/RussiaandChinaWantMoreControlOvertheInternet,
Stratfor,August14,2015,http://www.stratfor.com/sample/analysis/russia-and-china-want-more-control-over-
internet.
108,:,
,212016,http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2016/04/21/ru-63383/ixdw,
,,32015,
109,,122016,
http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-02-12/2_red.htmlRussiasChiefInternetCensorEnlistsChinasKnow-How,
FinancialTimes,April27,2016.
110,.,,1
2016,http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2016/02/01/ru-62632/itei.
111MasterCard,VisaNowProcessRussianPaymentsThroughSanction-ProofSystem,MoscowTimes,May
28,2015,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/mastercard-visa-now-process-russian-payments-
through-sanction-proof-system/522576.html.
112TASS,RussiaMayUseChinasPaymentInfrastructureInsteadofSWIFTVTBBankHead,Russia
BeyondtheHeadlines,March11,2015,
http://in.rbth.com/news/2015/03/11/russia_may_use_chinas_payment_infrastructure_instead_of_swift_vtb_bank_h_41911.
113RussiaBrainstormsStrategytoReplaceBannedWesternDefenseImports,MoscowTimes,August14,
2014,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-brainstorms-strategy-to-replace-banned-
western-defense-imports/505133.html.
114PutinsDeoffshorizationBringsMajorFirmsBacktoTaxman,MoscowTimes,December20,2013,
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/putins-deoffshorization-brings-major-firms-back-to-
taxman/491910.html.
115UriFriedman,SmartSanctions:AShortHistory,ForeignPolicy,April23,2012,
http://foreignpolicy.com/2012/04/23/smart-sanctions-a-short-history/.
116RobinNiblett,NATOMustFocusontheHybridWarsBeingWagedontheWest,FinancialTimes,July
17,2014,http://next.ft.com/content/3192c7a0-0cd2-11e4-bf1e-00144feabdc0JohnVandiver,SACEUR:
AlliesMustPrepareforRussiaHybridWar,StarsandStripes,September4,2014,
http://www.stripes.com/news/saceur-allies-must-prepare-for-russia-hybrid-war-1.301464.
117Vandiver,HybridWar.
118,(:,2015),
http://lib100.com/book/other/hybrid_war/_%D0%9C%D0%B0%D1%80%D0%BA%D0%BE%D0%B2
%D0%A1.%D0%90.,
%D0%93%D0%B8%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8F
%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D0%B0
%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B2
%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8.pdf,
,-,182016,
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2961578:
,.,242015,http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2529147.
119,,,142014,http://topwar.ru/56079-
gibridnaya-voyna.html,:
(II),,132015,
http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2015-03-13/1_gybrid2.html,:
,,222016,
http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-10-10/1_nato.html.
120,:,
,222016,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-10-10/1_nato.html.
121,,,302015,
http://topwar.ru/75928-mif-o-gibridnoy-voyne.html.
122Ibid.
123ShaunWalker,AlexisTsiprasinMoscowAsksEuropetoEndSanctionsAgainstRussia,Guardian,April
8,2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/08/alexis-tsipras-in-moscow-asks-europe-to-end-
sanctions-against-russiaGeorgiGotev,BulgarianParliamentAlmostRejectedtheEUSanctionsAgainst
Russia,EurActiv,October8,2015,http://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/bulgarian-
parliament-almost-rejected-the-eu-sanctions-against-russia/.
124IvoOliveira,NationalFrontSeeksRussianCashforElectionFight,PoliticoEurope,February19,2016,
http://www.politico.eu/article/le-pen-russia-crimea-putin-money-bank-national-front-seeks-russian-cash-for-
election-fight/.
125MelanieAmannetal.,TheHybridWar:RussiasPropagandaCampaignAgainstGermany,Spiegel
Online,January30,2016,http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/putin-wages-hybrid-war-on-germany-
and-west-a-1075483.htmlTheCzechsandRussia:SpyVersusPolitician,Economist,October29,2014,
http://www.economist.com/blogs/easternapproaches/2014/10/czechs-and-russiaGregoryFeiferandBrian
Whitmore,CzechPowerGames:HowRussiaIsRebuildingInfluenceintheFormerSovietBloc,RadioFree
Europe/RadioLiberty,September25,2010,
http://www.rferl.org/content/Czech_Mate_How_Russia_Is_Rebuilding_Influence_In_The_Former_Soviet_Bloc/2168090.html
AleksTapinsh,LatviaSeesGoodandBadasRussianMoneyHaven,Reuters,October23,2012,
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-latvia-russia-banks-idUSBRE89M0S120121023.
126,,,231995,
http://medium.com/@OpenUni/--1995-23------
-9785d26186b2#.byb71wmzt.
127DmitryZhdannikovandGuyFaulconbridge,KhodorkovskySaysPutinIsLeadingRussiaToward
Stagnation,Collapse,Reuters,November27,2015,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-khodorkovsky-
west-idUSKBN0TF23920151126.
128Forthepurposesofthisanalysis,atacticalmovebyPutintotheprimeministersofficewouldnotconstitutea
meaningfulbreakwithPutinism.ThisanalysisalsoassumesthatPutinremainshealthyandthattherewillbeno
coupagainsthimfortheremainderofhiscurrentterm.
129Politburo2.0andPost-CrimeanRussia,MinchenkoConsulting,October22,2014,
http://www.minchenko.ru/netcat_files/File/Politburo_2014_ENG1_pre_final1.pdfRussia:TheStrugglesWithin
PartI,Stratfor,January9,2008,http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russia-struggles-within-part-i.
130NeilMacFarquhar,RussiansAnxietySwellsasOilPricesCollapse,NewYorkTimes,January22,2016,
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/23/world/europe/russians-anxiety-swells-as-oil-prices-collapse.htmlTom
Balmforth,SacredGround:MuscovitesProtestChurchConstructioninPark,RadioFreeEurope/Free
Liberty,June26,2015,http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-moscow-church-protest-torfyanka-
park/27095836.htmlAlexeyMalashenko,DivisionsandDefianceAmongRussiasMuslims,Carnegie
MoscowCenter,November20,2015,http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2015/11/20/divisions-and-defiance-
among-russia-s-muslims/im56MiriamElder,MoscowRiotsExposeRacismattheHeartofRussianFootball,
Guardian,December18,2010,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/19/spartak-moscow-race-riots-
ultranationalistAlexeyMalashenkoandAlexeyStarostin,TheRiseofNontraditionalIslamintheUrals,
CarnegieMoscowCenter,September30,2015,http://carnegie.ru/2015/09/30/rise-of-nontraditional-islam-in-
urals/iie6.
131BenJudah,PutinsMedievalPeacePactinChechnya,Bloomberg,April25,2013,
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2013-04-25/putin-s-medieval-peace-pact-in-chechnyaMichael
Schwirtz,RussianAngerGrowsOverChechnyaSubsidies,NewYorkTimes,October8,2011,
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/world/europe/chechnyas-costs-stir-anger-as-russia-approaches-
elections.htmlEx-MinisterSaysRussiaWillCutDefenseBudgetin23Years,TASS,January13,2016,
http://tass.ru/en/defense/849380RussiatoCutSocialSpendingin2016,RT,January14,2016,
http://www.rt.com/business/328915-russia-social-spending-2016/MoscowProtestersRallyAgainstBudget
CutsinScience,Education,RT,June6,2015,http://www.rt.com/news/265495-moscow-protest-science-
education/EugeneVorotnikov,GovernmentPlanstoCut10%OffUniversityFunding,UniversityWorld
News,February20,2015,http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20150220085025625.
132MikhailKrutikhin,GrabandShare:NewTaxProposalsforRussiasOilIndustry,CarnegieMoscow
Center,October15,2015,http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=61623,
,,242015,
http://www.rbc.ru/society/24/03/2015/551134c29a7947727d49866d,
,,30
2015,http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2015-12-30/1_otredaktora.html.
133RobertBurns(AssociatedPress),NATOOfficial:RussiaNowanAdversary,YahooNews,May1,2014,
http://www.yahoo.com/news/nato-official-russia-now-adversary-150211090--politics.html?ref=gs.
134NATOLeaderSaysRussiaBuildingArcofSteelinEurope,U.S.DepartmentofDefense,October6,
2015,http://www.defense.gov/News-Article-View/Article/622080/nato-leader-says-russia-building-arc-of-
steel-in-europeNaftaliBendavid,NATORampsUpResponsetoRussia,WallStreetJournal,June24,
2015,http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-ramps-up-response-to-russia-1435174136.
135NeutralEuropeanCountries:Austria,Switzerland,Sweden,Finland,Ireland,SloveniaandNATO,
http://nato.gov.si/eng/topic/national-security/neutral-status/neutral-countries/TheEffectsofFinlandsPossible
NATOMembership,MinistryofForeignAffairsofFinland,April29,2016,
http://formin.finland.fi/public/default.aspx?contentid=345685TomasBertelman,JohanMolander,andSven-Olof
Peterson,APowerfulCaseforSwedishMembershipinNATO,NATOSource(blog),AtlanticCouncil,
August21,2015,http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/a-powerful-case-for-swedish-membership-in-
nato.
136RichardFontaineandJulianneSmith,Anti-Access/AreaDenialIsntJustforAsiaAnymore,DefenseOne,
April2,2015,http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2015/04/anti-accessarea-denial-isnt-just-asia-
anymore/109108/.
137AgenceFrance-Presse,BelarusPoll:EULiftsSanctionsonLukashenkoEuropesLastDictator,
Guardian,October12,2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/13/belarus-poll-eu-lifts-sanctions-
on-lukashenko-europes-last-dictator.
138SabraAyres,AsBelarusEconomyFalters,LukashenkoLooksWest,AlJazeeraAmerica,January3,
2016,http://america.aljazeera.com/multimedia/2016/1/as-belarus-economy-falters-lukashenko-looks-west.html.
139AnasMarin,TradingOffSovereignty.TheOutcomeofBelarussIntegrationWithRussiaintheSecurity
andDefenceField,OrodekStudiwWschodnich,April29,2013,
http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2013-04-29/trading-sovereignty-outcome-belaruss-
integration-russiaChrisBiggers,RussianAirbaseinBelarusRemainsinLimbo,Bellingcat,December27,
2015,http://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2015/12/27/russian-airbase-belarus-remains-limbo/.
140YurasKarmanau(AssociatedPress),BelarusPresidentSaysHeDoesntWantRussianAirBase,Voice
ofAmerica,October6,2015,http://www.voanews.com/content/belarus-president-says-he-does-not-want-
russian-air-base/2993864.htmlChristopherHarress,ScaredbyUkraineWar,BelarusStrongmanLukashenko
MullsDitchingRussia,InternationalBusinessTimes,January31,2015,http://www.ibtimes.com/scared-
ukraine-war-belarus-strongman-lukashenko-mulls-ditching-russia-1801070MikalaiAnishchanka,IsBelarus
andRussiasBrotherlyLoveComingtoanEnd?Guardian,May29,2015,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/28/belarus-russia-brotherly-love-ukraine-crisis.
141KitGillet,OppositionGroupsinMoldovaUnitetoProtestNewGovernment,NewYorkTimes,January
25,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/26/world/europe/oppositions-groups-in-moldova-unite-to-protest-
new-government.html.
142PersonalRemittances,Received(%ofGDP),database,WorldBank,
http://data.worldbank.org/indicator/BX.TRF.PWKR.DT.GD.ZS.
143MoldovanMigrantsDeniedRe-EntrytoRussia,DeutscheWelle,December21,2014,
http://www.dw.com/en/moldovan-migrants-denied-re-entry-to-russia/a-18144394.
144JeffreyMankoff,WhyRussiaandTurkeyFight:AHistoryofAntagonism,ForeignAffairs,February24,
2016,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2016-02-24/why-russia-and-turkey-fight.
145SelinGirit,TurkeyFacesBigLossesasRussiaSanctionsBite,BBC,January2,2016,
146IshaanTharoor,HowRussiasPutinandTurkeysErdoganWereMadeforEachOther,WashingtonPost,
December2,2014,http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/12/02/how-russias-putin-and-
turkeys-erdogan-were-made-for-each-other/.
147Cengizandar,PutinSupportsErdoganinTurkey,butNotinSyria,Al-Monitor,September24,2015,
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/09/turkey-russia-putin-not-supports-erdogan-in-syria.html
NewsConferenceFollowingStateVisittoTurkey,OfficialInternetResourcesofthePresidentofRussia,
December1,2014,http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47126.
148Mankoff,WhyRussiaandTurkeyFightTurkeysDowningofRussianWarplaneWhatWeKnow,
BBC,December1,2015,http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34912581.
149AndreyBiryukov,PutinSaysTurkishStabinBackCausedRussianWarplaneCrash,Bloomberg,
November24,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-24/putin-says-turkish-stab-in-back-
caused-russian-warplane-crash.
150RaziyeAkkocandRolandOliphant,VladimirPutinRefusestoSpeaktoTurkishPresidentOverAnkaras
LackofApology,Telegraph,November27,2015,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/12020980/Vladimir-Putin-refuses-to-speak-to-
Turkish-president-over-Ankaras-lack-of-apology.html.
151WorstinDecades,NoWaytoImproveforNowKremlinonRussia-TurkeyRelations,RT,February9,
2016,http://www.rt.com/news/331878-russia-turkey-relations-worst/.
152AzerbaijansEconomyinDireStraitsasOilPricesKeepTanking,Oilprice.com,January14,2016,
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Azerbaijans-Economy-In-Dire-Straits-As-Oil-Prices-
Keep-Tanking.html.
153JackFarchy,BakuSeeksAlternativesasAzerbaijanOilProductionDeclines,FinancialTimes,March
12,2015,http://next.ft.com/content/b86cb5b4-be99-11e4-8036-00144feab7deAzerbaijancountryreport,
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=AZE.
154RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty,AzerbaijanForcedtoCutBreadTaxesAfterWidespreadProtests,
Guardian,January15,2016,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/15/azerbaijan-forced-to-cut-bread-
taxes-after-widespread-protests.
155AzerbaijanCancelsEUDelegationVisitAfterCriticismofRightsRecord,Reuters,September11,2015,
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-azerbaijan-europe-idUSKCN0RB1U920150911U.S.CriticizesAzerbaijan
Crackdown,RadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty,December2,2014,http://www.rferl.org/content/journalists-in-
trouble-us-criticizes-azerbaijan-crackdown/26720682.html.
156Formoreonthis,seeEugeneRumer,RichardSokolsky,andPaulStronski,U.S.PolicyTowardCentral
Asia3.0,CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,January25,2016.
http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/01/25/u.s.-policy-toward-central-asia-3.0/it2s.
157Ibid.
158SydneyJ.FreedbergJr.,RussiansinSyriaBuildingA2/ADBubbleOverRegion:Breedlove,Breaking
Defense,September28,2015,http://breakingdefense.com/2015/09/russians-in-syria-building-a2ad-bubble-
over-region-breedlove/StevenPifer,RussianNukesinCrimea?ABetterWaytoRespond,Brookings
Institution,February2,2015,http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/02/02-russia-nuclear-
weapons-crimea-better-us-response-piferStevenErlanger,NATORatchetsUpMissileDefenseDespite
RussianCriticism,NewYorkTimes,May5,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/world/europe/nato-
russia-poland.html.
From: rumereugene@gmail.com
Senttime: 07/06/201610:30:27PM
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.comChrisBort<chrisjb1@ucia.gov>
Subject: Re:RussiaandtheSecurityofEurope-CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace
Thanks.Hollerifsomethingoutrageous.Bobwillprobablyfindsomething.
SentfrommyiPad
OnJul7,2016,at3:10AM,ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>wrote:
RussiasannexationofCrimeainMarch2014wasthelateststepinMoscowslongprocessofrejectionofthe
postColdWarEuro-Atlanticsecurityorder,reflectingadeeplyheldviewthatisunlikelytochangeanytime
soon.WesternstrategywillneedtoadjusttoRussiasconceptionofitsinterestsandprioritiesinandaround
Europe.
encroachmentonthecountryssecurity,economic,andgeopoliticalinterests,aswellasontheirholdon
powerinRussia.
defense.ItisreinforcedbyRussianelitesconcernsabouttheinternalweaknessofthecountryandits
direction.Italsoservesasatoolfortheelitestomobilizethepopulationinthefaceofexternalthreats.The
elitesrecognizethatthecountryisinasystemiccrisisbutfearthatsolutionscouldprovedestabilizing.
ThelackofconfidenceintheirdefensecapabilitieshasledRussianmilitaryexpertstoconsiderstrategies
forearlynuclearescalationasadeterrentandcountermeasuretotheWestsperceivedconventional
superiority.TheWestsplansforimprovingconventionalcapabilitiesandmissiledefensesareeroding
Russianmilitaryplannersconfidenceintheirnucleardeterrent.
peripheryofRussiaisprecariousandaddstotheinternalchallengesfacingthecountry.Russianplanners
arebeingconfrontedwitharegionrifewithinstability,localconflicts,andforeignpowerstheyviewas
competingwithoropenlyhostiletoRussiaineverystrategicdirection.
Inthisenvironment,Russiaisresortingtoanarrayoftoolsfromnuclearsaberrattlingtointimidationof
smaller,weakerneighborstoinformationwarfare,cyberoperations,subversion,bribery,andotherpolitical
andeconomicmeasuresasmeansofhybridwarfareorcontinuationofpoliticsbyallavailablemeans.
securityguarantee,thesesixbattlegroundstatesremaininwhatMoscowperceivesasitssphereof
privilegedinterests.Itispreparedtousemilitaryforcetokeeptheminit.AstheWestisnotpreparedto
consignthesestatestotheRussiansphere,theybecomethearenaforEast-Westcompetition.
NATOsArticle5securityguaranteeofitsmembersseriously,andthatitisnotpreparedtotestthat
guaranteedirectly.RussianleaderswenttowartwicetopreventGeorgiaandUkrainefromeventually
astheysawitjoiningNATO.RatherthanchallengeNATOdirectly,Moscowwillcontinuetorelyonits
widearrayofhybridwarfaremethodstounderminememberstatesconfidenceinthealliance.
frontlinestateswillhaveastabilizingeffectonthestandoffbetweenNATOandRussia.NATOsactionsin
theaftermathoftheUkrainecrisis,intendedtoshoreupthefrontlinestates,havetriggered
disproportionateRussianresponses,includingdeploymentofanti-accessandarea-denial(A2/AD)
capabilitiestoCrimeaandKaliningradaswellasthreatstodeploynuclearweaponsthere.
AbsentmajorchangesinRussias(orNATOs)outlook,thisadversarialrelationshipwillremainakey
featureoftheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderfortheforeseeablefuture.Eventually,itwilltakeapolitical,not
amilitary,solutiontoresolvethisstandoff.
Introduction
TheannexationofCrimeabyRussiainMarch2014andtheundeclaredwaragainstUkrainethatfollowed
markedtheendofthepostColdWarperiodinEuropeanhistory.Russianactionshavedestroyedkeyelements
ofboththepostColdWarsecuritysystemandthepostWorldWarIIsecuritysysteminEuropethathad
survivedfornearlythree-quartersofacentury.ThedamagedonebyRussianactionsisdeepandlasting,with
pre-andpost-UkraineembodyingacleardividinglineinEuropeansecurityaffairs.Anewgeopoliticaldivisionof
Europehasemergedaswell.PuttingthepiecesbacktogetherinUkraineandshoringupaunitedEuropewill
stretchU.S.capabilities.ThesetwinchallengeswillremainastrategicimperativeforU.S.policymakersabsenta
majorshiftinRussianpositionswithrespecttoEuropeansecurityahighlyunlikelyoccurrencewithoutachange
inthecountrysleadershipandgoverningideology.
foreignpolicyestablishments.Few,ifany,analystsoneithersideoftheAtlantichadpredictedthatMoscow
wouldmovetodestroywhatwasenvisionedattheendoftheColdWarasEuropewhole,free,andatpeace
withitselfanditsneighbors.1RussianactionsagainstUkrainecameasasurpriseevenformanyseasoned
Russianforeignpolicyobservers.2ThedecisiontoseizeandsubsequentlyannexCrimeaandtolaunchthewarin
easternUkraineinsupportofRussian-inspiredseparatistswasmostlikelypartofaspontaneous,panicky
responsebyMoscowtotherapidlychangingpoliticalenvironmentinUkraineratherthananelementofalong-
term,well-thought-out,deliberatestrategy.3
However,acarefulexaminationofRussiasownnarrativeaboutEuropeanandEurasiansecurity,andits
evolutionsincetheendoftheColdWar,suggeststhatRussianactionsinUkrainewereentirelylogical,perhaps
eveninevitable,asanextensionofRussianthreatperceptions.AsseenfromMoscow,therapidchangesin
UkrainianpoliticsthecollapseofthepresidencyofViktorYanukovychandthecomingtopowerofapolitical
coalitionadvocatingUkrainespro-EuropeanandEuro-Atlanticorientation,includingeventualmembershipinthe
EuropeanUnion(EU)andtheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)carriedwiththemprofound
geopoliticalconsequencesforRussia:theysignaledtheemergenceofnewthreatstoRussiassecurityrightatits
doorstep,threatsthatnoRussianleaderislikelytotoleratewithoutawholesalechangeinthecountrysideology
andunderstandingofitsnationalsecurity.
FromMoscowsperspective,itsactionsinUkrainerepresentedquintessentiallyaseriesofnecessarydefensive,
ratherthanoffensiveandexpansionist,measuresthatwereintendedtopreventanevenmoreseveregeopolitical
imbalanceonthecontinentresultingfromNATOandEUexpansionintoCentralandEasternEurope.Attheroot
oftheseactionswasasenseofvulnerabilityratherthanconfidenceinMoscowsrelationswiththeWest.
Ironically,thesecurityenvironmentaroundtheperipheryofRussiathathasemergedasaresultoftheannexation
ofCrimeaandthesubsequentaggressionagainstUkraineundoubtedlyleavesRussianmilitaryplannerswitha
greatersenseofvulnerability.
Europeansecurity.Aftertheideologicalandmilitarystandoffthathaddividedthecontinentformorethanfour
decades,EuropeincludingRussiawascomingtogetheronthebasisofanewvision,embracedbyallasthe
foundationforanewsecurityorder.
Thatsecurityorder,describedbyWesternleadersasEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfandits
neighbors,wouldnotrelyonsuchfamiliarconceptsasbalanceofpowerorbalanceofintereststomaintain
peaceonthecontinent.ItwouldinsteadrelyonallEuropeannationsincludingRussiamaintaininga
commitmenttosharedvaluesandadherencetoasetofkeyprinciplestoguidetheirforeignandsecuritypolicies.
Theseprincipleswererespectingtheindependence,sovereignty,andterritorialintegrityofallnationsrefraining
fromusingforcetosettleinternationaldisputesallowingfreedomofchoicebyallstatestopursuetheirforeign
policiesandenterintoalliancesanddemonstratingrespectforfundamentalhumanrightsandpersonalfreedoms
instatesdomesticpoliticalarrangements.
governmentofallEuropeannations,Canada,andtheUnitedStatescametogetherin1990tosigntheCharterof
ParisforaNewEurope.5Inthatdocument,theywelcomedtheneweraofdemocracy,peaceandunityin
Europeand,amongotherthings,pledgedtosettledisputesbypeacefulmeansanddefenddemocratic
institutionsagainstactivitieswhichviolatetheindependence,sovereignequalityorterritorialintegrityofthe
participatingStates.
TheCharterofPariswasjoinedbytheSovietUnion,whosecommitmentswereassumedbyRussiauponits
dissolutionin1991.UkraineandotherformerSovietstatesalsojoinedtheOrganizationforSecurityand
CooperationinEurope,whichwasestablishedtoimplementthevisionoftheCharterofParis.
AnothermajorstepintheevolutionofEuropewasthesigningin1992oftheMaastrichtTreaty.6Itwasa
milestoneintheprocessofEuropeanintegrationalsoonthebasisofsharedvaluesthattransformedthe
EuropeanCommunityintotheEuropeanUnion.TheEUwouldpursuethegoalsofpromotingandstrengthening
democraticinstitutions,establishingamonetaryunion,anddevelopingacommonforeignandsecuritypolicy.
landscape,havingconsentedtoshedtheouterandinnerempirespeacefullyinthelate1980sandearly1990s.
Atthetime,boththeSovietgovernmentandthegovernmentofthenewRussianstatedeclaredand
demonstratedindeedtheircommitmenttoupholdtheunderlyingprinciplesofEuropeansecurityandstability.
EarlySignsofTrouble
However,whiletherestofthecontinentcelebratedthedawnofanewpeacefulandharmoniouserainEuropean
historyandembracedthevisionofEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors,Russiawas
havingsecondthoughts.TheideaofaEuropeansecuritysystembasedonavagueconceptofsharedvaluesdid
notsitwellwiththeRussianforeignpolicyandsecurityestablishment.Thus,speakingataforeignministry
conferencedevotedtoadiscussionofanewforeignpolicyconceptoftheRussianFederation,thenforeign
ministerAndreyKozyrevdeclaredthatRussiamustbecomeanormalgreatpower.7Thechairmanofthe
ForeignAffairsCommitteeoftheRussianDuma,YevgeniyAmbartsumov,welcomedtheforeignministers
proposalandwentfurther,declaringthatthetimehadcometoabandonidealisticdeclarationsinfavorof
realpolitik.8
AlthoughtheRussiangovernmentwaspreoccupiedatthetimewithaseeminglyendlesssuccessionofdomestic
crisesthatfollowedthedissolutionoftheSovietUnion,includingacollapsingeconomyandfiercepolitical
struggleintheRussianparliament,wherethereformagendaranintostrongopposition,theRussianforeignpolicy
establishmentarticulatedamoreambitiousvisionofthestatesintereststhanthedirestateofRussiasdomestic
politicsandeconomymighthavesuggested.Insharpcontrasttohisearlierconciliatorystatements,
AmbartsumovexplicitlylaidclaimtoRussiasspecialrights,evenresponsibilities,throughouttheterritoriesofthe
formerSovietstatesandsuggestedthatRussianintereststranscendedthebordersofthesenewlyindependent
states.9SergeyKaraganov,aleadingforeignpolicyscholarandfounderoftheCouncilonForeignandDefense
Policy,wroteinasimilarveinthatRussiahadnotjustasetofinterests,butaspecialmissionaheavycrossto
bearintheterritoriesoftheformerSovietUnion.10
RussiahadinheriteditsnationalsecurityestablishmentfromtheSovietUnion.Ambartsumov,Kozyrev,and
Karaganovrepresentedanewgenerationofforeignpolicythinkersandpractitionerswithrelativelyprogressive
attitudeswhocouldhavebeenexpectedtoholdmoreenlightenedviewsonrelationswithneighboringstatesand
thepostColdWarsecurityarrangementsinEurope.ButtheRussianmilitary,securityservices,anddiplomatic
establishmentwereallproductsoftheColdWarinwhichmistrustoftheWestwasdeepandnoteasilyovercome
bydeclarationsofpeacefulintentionsbyEuropeanandU.S.leaders.11
TheseearlysignalsthatsharedvaluesmaynotbesufficientforRussiaasthebasisforEuropeansecurityand
stabilitycouldhaveremainedalargelyinconsequentialdiscourseintherelativelynarrowandself-contained
communityofRussianforeignpolicyexperts.Foreignpolicyinthe1990stookabackseattodomesticaffairs,
especiallytheeconomy,whichwasthedominantconcernofthecountryselitesandthegeneralpublic.However,
thedebatewasbroughttotheforeofRussiandomesticpoliticsandEuropeandiscussionsaboutthecontinents
securityarchitecturebytwocriticallyimportantprocesses:enlargementoftheEUandNATO.
understandingofPolandsdesiretojoinNATO.12Kozyrevreportedlyechoedthatsentimentdespitehaving
beenopposedtotheideapreviously.However,justafewweekslater,inOctober1993,theRussianpresident
sentalettertothenU.S.presidentBillClintonstatinghisstrongoppositiontomembershipinthealliancefor
PolandoranyotherCentralorEasternEuropeancountry.13Yeltsinsapparentchangeofpositionwasreportedly
duetopressurefromtheRussianmilitaryestablishment,whichstillconsideredNATOathreat.14
ThelaunchofanactivediscussioninEuropeandtheUnitedStatesaboutNATOenlargementtransformedthe
initialcracksintheEuropeansecuritylandscapeintoamajordividebetweenRussiaandmostoftherestof
Europe.NATOalliesandaspirantsmaintainedthatexpandingthealliancewasintendednotasahostilestep
againstRussia,butthatbringingthezoneofstabilityandsecurityclosertoRussiasborderwouldonlybenefit
Moscow.Russiancounterargumentswerepreciselytheopposite,stressingthemilitarycapabilitiesthatNATO
expansionwouldinevitablybringclosertoRussianborders.(SeeRussiangovernmentthinktankmapsshowing
NATOenlargementinfigures1and2.)
<Figure_1_NATO_19902.jpg>
<Figure_2_NATO_Post20141.jpg>
RussianoppositiontoNATOenlargementwassharedbypoliticiansacrossthepoliticalspectrum.The
conservativewingofRussianpoliticsrepresentedbythenationalistsandtheCommunistsopposedthealliances
expansionforgeopoliticalandideologicalreasons.Theliberalsandreformersopposeditbecausetheysawitas
damagingtotheiralreadytenuouspositioninRussiandomesticpolitics,vulnerabletocriticismfromopponents
whoaccusedthemofbetrayingRussiannationalinterestandbeingagentsoftheWest.15
Thevalues-basedapproachtoEuropeansecuritywasfailingtogetrecognitioninRussiaforseveralreasons:
afternearlythree-quartersofacenturyunderanideologicallydrivenandfailedregime,thepopulationhadlittle
confidenceinideasingeneralthismistrustwasreinforcedbythenewRussiangovernmentsfailuretodeliverand
demonstratetothepublicthetangiblebenefitsofthenewrulingideologyofthemarketanddemocracy,asthe
countrylimpedfromonecrisistothenext.
AfterbeingcutofffromWesternpoliticalsciencefordecades,Russianinternationalrelationsscholarswere
avidlyabsorbingideasputforthbyleadingWesternpoliticalscientists.Themostprominentamongthemwere
SamuelHuntingtonandZbigniewBrzezinski,whosebooksTheClashofCivilizationsandtheRemakingof
WorldOrderandTheGrandChessboardrespectivelyapproachedcontemporaryinternationalrelationsfrom
pointsofviewthatrejectedtheveryideaofavalues-basedsecuritysysteminEuropeandEurasia.16
Huntingtonsvolume,asthetitlesuggests,predictedaconflictpittingWesterncivilizationanditsliberalideology
againstothercivilizationsguidedbyotherideas.BrzezinskiarguedthatitwasimportantfortheUnitedStatesto
preventanothermajorpowerreadRussiafromdominatingtheEurasianlandmass.
periphery.18
Washingtonsforeignpolicyestablishment,itwaseasyforRussianforeignandnationalsecuritypolicymakers,
manyofthemproductsoftheColdWar,tobeskepticalofU.S.andalliesreassurancesaboutvalues-based
securityarrangementsforEuropeandEurasia.WhiletheideaofNATOextendingitsmembershipbeyond
Europewasnotbroughtupeveninthemostambitiousdiscussionsofthealliancesfutureatthetime,NATOdid
extenditsreachintoCentralAsiathroughitsPartnershipforPeaceprogram.17Thatcouldhavebeeninterpreted
byRussianmilitaryplannersasamaneuvertoencircleRussia,notwithstandingthefactthatRussiaitselfhad
joinedthePartnershipforPeace.
AnotherfactorshapingRussianthreatperceptionswithrespecttoNATOandEuropeansecuritywastheconflict
intheformerYugoslavia.ForRussia,stillreelingfromthedissolutionoftheSovietUnionandstrugglingto
overcomemultiplepoliticalandeconomicchallenges,theviolentbreakupofYugoslaviawasacontinuing
reminderofthedangersithadbarelyescaped.TheRussiangovernmentvehementlyopposedNATOs
interventioninYugoslaviaas,amongotherreasons,apotentialprecedentforsimilaractionbyNATOinRussia
orarounditsperiphery.18TheRussianmilitarysbrutaltacticsduringthe19941996warinChechnyadrew
widespreadcondemnationfromtheWest.ThepossibilityofaNATOinterventioninthebreakawayrepublic,no
matterhowimprobabletomostseasonedobservers,wasnonethelesswidelydiscussedinRussia.19
considerationsonlyreinforcedRussianoppositiontothecampaignandresistancetoNATOsenlargement.From
thestandpointofRussiannationalsecurityplanners,theextraditionandtrialoftheformerYugoslavstrongman
SlobodanMiloeviundoubtedlyservedasareminderthatatsomefuturetimeaweakenedRussiangovernment
couldbeforcedtosurrendertheleadersofthemilitarycampaigninChechnyaandthattheywouldfind
themselvesontrialforwarcrimesbeforeaninternationaltribunal.20
FromthestandpointofRussiannationalsecurityplanners,theonlyguaranteeagainstsucheventswasthevast
nucleararsenalRussiahadinheritedfromtheSovietUnion.Russiannationalsecuritydocumentsfromthe1990s
onwardhavestressedtheuniqueroleofnuclearweaponsastheultimateperhapseventheonlyguaranteeof
Russiansovereigntyandstrategicindependence.21
ButalthoughnuclearweaponswereindispensableasaguaranteeagainstWesterninterventioninRussia,they
werefarlessusefulwhenitcametointerveningincrisesbeyondRussiasbordersandprojectingMoscows
interestsbeyondtheborders.ThenucleararsenalwasoflittleusewhenitcametodeterringNATOenlargement
everclosertoRussianbordersandsecuringasphereofinfluenceforRussiaarounditsperipheryalong-
standingRussianobjectivearticulatedasearlyas1992byleadingRussianforeignpolicythinkersand
practitioners.Forthat,Russiawouldhavetorebuilditsconventionalcapabilities,whichinturnwouldrequirea
commitmentofsignificanteconomicresources.
AStrongWarning
Duringthefirstdecadeofthetwenty-firstcentury,Russiaenjoyedamajoreconomicrebound.Inthedecade
fromthefinancialcollapseof1998totheendofVladimirPutinssecondpresidentialtermin2008,Russiangross
domesticproduct(GDP)grewfromjustunder$300billiontonearly$1.7trillionincurrentprices.22Asthe
economyreboundedanddomesticpoliticsstabilized,theRussiangovernmentassumedafarmoreprominent
positionintheinternationalarenathanduringthe1990s.Russiabecameafull-fledgedmemberoftheG8
industrializedeconomiesandasserteditselfasastrongandindependentvoiceonmajorissues,fromEuropean
securitytothewarinIraq.
ThemostnotableandforcefulstatementonforeignandsecuritypolicyfromthatperiodcamefromPutin
personally,deliveredattheMunichSecurityConferencein2007.Thespeech,describedbysomeinthe
audienceasColdWarlike,clearlylaidoutRussianrejectionofthepostColdWarsecurityorderinEurope.23
TheRussianpresidentcharacterizedNATOenlargementasaprovocativeunilaterallandgrabbytheU.S.-led
allianceseekingtoexpanditssphereofinfluence.InputtingitsmilitaryforcesrightuptoRussiasborder,Putin
said,NATOwasinviolationofassurancesgiventoRussiaattheendoftheColdWar.Thisunilateral,unipolar,
U.S.-centricsecuritymodel,heconcluded,wasunacceptable.
Moreover,accordingtothenarrativewidelyheldinRussiasnationalsecurityestablishment,NATOenlargement
wasnotonlyalandgrabthatupsetthegeopoliticalbalanceinEurope,butitalsoconstitutedaviolationof
assurancesgivenbyWesternleaderstothenSovietpresidentMikhailGorbachevthatinexchangeforGermanys
reunificationandNATOmembership,thealliancewouldnotexpandeastward.24Thenatureofthisclaimhas
beenrepeatedlydisputed.25Anddocumentaryevidencetosupportithasbeenambiguousatbesttosay
nothingofitspracticalirrelevance,fornobody,notevenRussianofficials,proposestoundoNATOenlargement.
Still,theideathattheWestbrokeitspromisehasbecomeanintegralpartofRussiandiscussionsaboutpost
ColdWarsecurityinEurope.
provocativeunilaterallandgrabbytheU.S.-ledalliance
seekingtoexpanditssphereofinfluence.
RussianleadersopposedEuropespostColdWarsecurityorderalsoonideologicalgrounds.Theycriticized
U.S.andEuropeaneffortstopromotedemocracyaroundtheperipheryofRussiaasathinlydisguisedpursuitof
theWestsexpandedsphereofinfluence.26Theyalsoviewedtheeffortsasadeeplydestabilizingundertaking
thatthreatenedthestabilityandsecurityofneighboringstatesandevenheldoutthepossibilityofundermining
Russiasownhard-wondomesticstability.Beyondthat,thepushbytheWesttopromotedemocracyinside
RussiawasdeclaredbyRussianleadersasaviolationofRussiansovereigntyandpotentiallydestabilizingand
deeplythreateningtothePutinadministrationitself.
AsRussiasowndomesticpoliticstookonamoreauthoritarianturnandPutinconsolidatedmorepower,he
cameundercriticismfromWesternleaders.27CombinedwithenthusiasticWesternexpressionsofsupportforthe
RoseRevolutioninGeorgiain2003andtheOrangeRevolutioninUkrainein20042005bothcrisesinwhich
RussiaandtheWestwerepittedagainsteachotherthroughproxyfactionstheWestssupportfordemocracy
throughtheever-expandingreachoftheEUandNATOemergedasthemostcontentiousissueinrelationswith
Russia.BuildingonthemajorthemeofhisMunichaddress,PutindeliveredafurtherwarningtoNATOatthe
alliances2008Bucharestsummit.NATOspromiseoffuturemembershiptoGeorgiaandUkraine,hesaid,
constitutedadirectthreattoRussiansecurity.Inanominouspreviewoffutureevents,hespokeofthehistoric
tiesbetweenRussiaandtheethnicRussianpopulationsofeasternUkraineandCrimeaandthepopulations
desireforclosetieswiththemotherland.28
AsiftheRussianpresidentstwowarningswerenotenough,thewarwithGeorgiain2008sentafurther
messagetotheWest,aswellastoRussiasneighbors,thatPutinmeantwhathesaid.InastatementonRussian
televisionintheimmediateaftermathofthewarinGeorgia,thenpresidentDmitryMedvedevdeclaredcountries
aroundRussiasperipheryasasphereofRussiasprivilegedinterests.29NostatementdeliveredbyaRussian
leaderpriortothewarof2008hadsignaledwithgreaterclarityMoscowsrejectionofavalues-basedsecurity
systeminEurope.Medvedevwoulddividethecontinentintospheresofinterestsandinfluence,andhewasfully
committedtodefendRussiasspherefromencroachmentbyotherpowers.
ThewarinGeorgiadeliveredtwoverydistinctmessagestotwodifferentaudiences.TotheWest,themessage
wastostayoutofthesphereofRussiasprivilegedinterests.ToRussia,themessagewasthatdespitethe
successfulcampaignagainstitstinyneighbor,theRussianmilitarywasinneedoffar-reachingreform.30Russia
neededthecapabilitybeyonditsnucleararsenaltodefenditsinterestsanddeterthosewhomightconsider
infringingonthem.ThemilitaryreformlaunchedintheaftermathofthewarinGeorgiaandaprogramofmilitary
modernizationwereintendedtogiveRussiathecapabilitytodojustthat.31
TheBreak
The20082012interregnumbetweenPutinssecondandthirdtermsaspresidentwasaperiodofrelativecalm
inRussiasrelationswiththeWest.CombinedwiththeresetwithRussiabeginningin2009bytheadministration
ofU.S.PresidentBarackObama,otherimperativesthewarinAfghanistan,Iransnuclearprogram,thecrisis
inLibyatookprecedenceoverNATOenlargement.Atthesametime,newlylauncheddebatesinsideRussia
aboutdomesticpoliticalandeconomicmodernizationheldouttheprospectofRussiareturningtothepathof
democratizationandamorecooperativerelationshipwiththeWest.32Inaddition,NATOlackedthenecessary
consensustopushforGeorgiasmembershipintheallianceintheaftermathofthewarof2008.Andin2010,
UkraineremovedNATOmembershipfromitslistofnationalsecurityprioritiesaltogether.33
ThecalmwasbrokenbydevelopmentsinsideRussia.PutinsdecisiontoreclaimthepresidencyfromMedvedev
wasmetwithlarge-scaleprotestsunprecedentedinthehistoryofmodernRussiabyproponentsoffurther
politicalandeconomicreformsthathadbeendebatedduringMedvedevspresidency.34Theprotestswere
greetedintheWestasamanifestationofRussiasdemocraticspiritandpoliticalreawakening.35
TheresponsefromthePutinadministrationwasharsh.Itincludedaseriesofnewlegislativestepstolimitthe
Russianpublicsspaceforpoliticalprotestscourtactionsagainstprotestersandamediacampaignaccusingthe
WestofinstigatingprotestsinRussiatoundermineandweakenit.36TheWestwaspromotinginRussiavalues
thatwerealientoRussiansociety,theKremlincharged,embracingthesloganRussiaisnotEurope.37Putins
thirdtermbeganwithaclearjuxtapositionofRussiavs.theWestasaconflictdrivenbydifferentvaluessystems.
TwodecadesaftersigningontothevisionofEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors,
Russiafinallyabandonedit.
PutinsthirdtermbeganwithaclearjuxtapositionofRussia
vs.theWestasaconflictdrivenbydifferentvaluessystems.
ThisbreakalsomanifesteditselfinRussianforeignpolicy,particularlyinrelationswiththeformerSovietstates.
BuildingonearlierRussianpronouncementsaboutasphereofinfluenceandinterests,andthedangerposedby
theWestsgeopoliticalexpansion,PutinelevatedEurasianintegrationthegatheringoftheformerSovietstates
aroundRussiatothetopofhisforeignpolicyagendaforhisthirdterm.38BuildingontheRussia-Kazakhstan-
Belaruscustomsunionestablishedin2000,PutinproposedtomovetowardaCommonEconomicSpace,
eventuallyproceedingtoapoliticalEurasianunion,allvaguelypatternedontheEUandrathertransparently
intendedtocreatearegionalcounterweighttoit.InPutinswords,theEurasianunionwouldbecomeapowerful
supranationalassociationcapableofbecomingoneofthepolesinthemodernworldareferencetothelong-
standingRussianpreferenceforamultipolarinternationalsystemandrejectionoftheU.S.-dominatedunipolar
world.39
PutinspolicyofEurasianintegrationstoodindirectconflictwiththeEUsEuropeanNeighborhoodPolicy,which
isintendedtobringcountriesontheEUseasternbordersclosertoitbyofferingthemAssociation
Agreements.40Theseagreementsaredesignedtopromotepolitical,economic,andrule-of-lawreformsin
countriesofEasternEuropeandencouragetheircloserpoliticalandcommercialtiestotheEU.SeveralEastern
EuropeancountriesArmenia,Georgia,Moldova,andUkrainewereintheprocessofnegotiatingAssociation
AgreementswiththeEUwhenPutinannouncedhisvisionofEurasianintegration.Ukrainewasthelargestamong
themandstrategicallythemostimportantforRussia.
ThegovernmentofUkrainethesecondmostpopulousformerSovietrepublicandthecriticalbridgebetween
RussiaandEuropewasengagedintwosimultaneousnegotiations.OnewaswithRussiaaboutjoiningits
economicintegrationprojecttheotherwaswiththeEUaboutanAssociationAgreement.Withthetwodeemed
incompatible,Kyivwouldeventuallyhavetochooseoneortheother.41
ForRussia,forPutinpersonally,thelossofUkrainetotheEUwouldnotbeatolerableoutcome.Thiswasdue
toseveralreasons.In2004,PutinscandidateforthepresidencyofUkraine,ViktorYanukovych,wasdefeated
bytheOrangeRevolutionencouragedbytheWest.AnotherdefeatofsimilarmagnitudeatthehandsoftheEU
wasnotanoptionfortheRussianpresidentafterhehadelevatedEurasianintegrationtothetopofhispolicy
agendaasacounterweighttotheUnitedStatesandtheEU.
Moreover,allformerSovietsatellitesthathadjoinedtheEUalsojoinedNATO.UkrainesAssociation
AgreementwiththeEUwasundoubtedlyseenbytheKremlinasasteptowardmembershipintheEUand,
eventually,inNATO.ThiswouldallowNATOspresencewithin300milesofMoscow.AsseenfromMoscow,
thiswouldalsomeanthatkeyUkrainiandefenseenterprisesthatsuppliedtheRussianmilitarywithcritical
componentswouldbelocatedonNATOterritory.42
AnothersignificantdependenceofRussiaonUkrainehastodowithenergysuppliestoEurope.Ukraineisthe
criticaltransitcountry,withasmuchashalfofRussiangasexportedtoEuropedeliveredthroughtheDruzhba
pipelinethatcrossesUkraine.43U.S.andEuropeanleadershavelongcomplainedaboutEuropesdependence
onRussiangasandtheinfluenceitgivesMoscowoverthecontinent.SomehavearguedforNATOtotakeon
themissionofsecuringEuropesenergysupply.44ForRussia,theprospectofUkrainejoiningNATOor
becomingasatelliteoftheEUwouldtranslateintoanunacceptablelossofpowerandinfluence.
Notwithstandingallthesestrategicconsiderations,thecrisisinUkraineapparentlycameasasurpriseforthe
Kremlin.45TheseverityofitsresponsetothecrisistheannexationofCrimea,thewarineasternUkraine,the
virulentpoliticalpropagandacampaignagainstthenewgovernmentofUkraineandtheWestforsupportingit,
andthedestructionoftheentirepostColdWarEuropeansecuritysystemreflecttheperceptionsofthreat
associatedbyRussiannationalsecurityelitewiththepotentiallossofUkrainetoNATOandtheEU.
TheNewOldThreat
TheshockwavesinEurope,intheUnitedStates,andaroundtheperipheryofRussiafromRussianactionsin
Ukraine(andsubsequentlyinSyria)haveamountedtoafundamentalreassessmentofRussia,itsmilitary
capabilities,anditsresolvetousethem.46TheperceptionofRussiaasasecond-ratepower,whosemilitary
capabilitieswerebadlydamagedbytheimplosionoftheSovietstateandneverrecovered,hasbeenreplaced
withnewlyalarmedassessmentsoftheRussianmilitarythreatnotseenbyWesternpublicsinageneration.47
EventheRussianNavy,longwrittenofffordeadasapresenceinthehighseas,isthesubjectofanew,widely
publicizedreportbytheU.S.OfficeofNavalIntelligence.48
Indeed,theswiftandapparentlyefficienttakeoverofCrimea,themilitaryinterventionandcovertoperationin
easternUkraine,andmostrecentlythemissioninSyriahavehadatransformationaleffectontheimageofthe
Russianmilitaryabroadandathome.However,withtheseaccomplishmentsonandoffthebattlefieldcamea
seriesofsoberingRussianreassessmentsofthenewsecurityenvironmentsurroundingRussiainpost-postCold
WarEuropeandEurasia.
Paradoxically,Russianmilitarysuccesseshaveresultedinnewthreatsandnewchallenges,andtheyhave
generatedaprofoundfeelingofuneaseamongRussianmilitaryexperts.Threatassessmentsfoundinofficial
Russiandocuments,statementsoftopofficials,andprivate-sectorcommentatorsdescribeauniformlybleak
picture.Inthewordsofoneauthoritativeobserver,Europesfailuretosecureitselfbehindabufferzone
establishedwiththehelpoftheEUsEasternPartnership,whichincludesArmenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia,
Moldova,andUkraine,hasmeantthatRussiacannothidebehindabufferzoneeither.49Russiacannolonger
countonthesecountriesasfriendlyandcapableofshieldingRussiaswesternandsouthernborders.
RussiaandcentersforcybersecurityandinformationwarfareintheBalticstatesmakeupthenewthreat
environmentRussiandefenseplannersarehavingtoconfront.Andthatisnoteventhecompletelist,whichomits
awiderangeofrealandpotentialthreatsfromtheself-proclaimedIslamicStatespresenceinIraqandSyriato
JapansnewlegislationgoverningtheuseofitsSelf-DefenseForcesabroad.Thisisthenewthreatenvironment
inwhichthearmedforcesoftheRussianstatehavetocarryouttheirmissionofdefendingandprotectingthe
sovereigntyoftheRussianstate,notedDefenseMinisterSergeiShoigu,appearingbeforetheyear-endmeeting
ofseniorMinistryofDefenseofficialsattendedbyPutin.50
themes.51ThedocumentidentifiedtheUnitedStatesanditsalliesastheprincipalthreattoRussia,astheWest
seekstohangontoitsdominantpositionintheworld.NATOenlargementcontinuesapace,withthealliance
aspiringtoaglobalmission.NATO,accordingtothenewdocument,underminesinternationalsecurity,
internationallaw,andarms-controltreatiesacquiresnewmilitarycapabilitiesanddeploysitsmilitary
infrastructureeverclosertotheterritoryoftheRussianFederation,threateningitssecurity.InUkraine,the
documentcontinues,NATOandtheEUhavesupportedanunconstitutionalcoupthattriggeredaprofoundsplit
inUkrainiansocietyandresultedinanewsourceofinstabilityinEurope.
intelligence,GeneralIgorSergun.52Writingin2015,heassertedthatthelong-termU.S.goalwastoencircle
RussiaandChinawitharingofregimesloyaltotheUnitedStatesandflashpointsthatwouldreliablyprevent
RussiafromcarryingoutitsEurasianintegrationproject.
FromthepointofviewofMoscow,NATOsreinforcementsoftheBalticstatesandPolandtodateandinthe
futurehavebrokenyetanotherkeypromisegiventoRussiabythealliesnottostationpermanentlysubstantial
combatforcesontheterritoriesofnewmembers.Regardlessofthecaveatthatthepromisewasconditioned
onthecurrentandforeseeablesecurityenvironment,whichwasupendedbytheannexationofCrimeaand
aggressionineasternUkrainetherecanbelittledoubtthatthereinforcementsareperceivedbyRussias
nationalsecurityestablishmentasitsworstexpectationscomingtrue.53Whetherthesereinforcementswill
constituteapermanentorpersistentpresenceislikelytobeoflittleconsequenceforRussiananalysts,foreither
onewouldconstituteacontinuousandineffectpermanentmilitarypresenceofNATOtroopsintheseforward
areas.
ItstheEconomy...
spokesmen,iscompoundedbytheunenviablestateofitseconomy.54Gonearethehighratesofgrowthtypical
ofthefirsttwotermsofthePutinpresidencythatmadepossibletherecoveryofthecountryseconomichealthas
wellasitsinternationalstandingandmilitarycapabilities.TheinabilityoftheRussianeconomytocompeteinthe
globalmarketplaceanditsrelianceontheoldmodelofdevelopmentbasedonexportsofrawmaterialshave
beenelevatedinthenewnationalsecuritystrategytotherankofthemainstrategicthreatsto[Russias]national
securityinthesphereoftheeconomy.55ThetasknowbeforeRussianpolicymakersistodevelopanewmodel
ofeconomicgrowth,fortheoldonehasoutliveditsusefulness.Thisthemehasbeenstressedbytopofficialsin
Russia,includingKremlinChiefofStaffSergeiIvanov,who,withcandorrareforaseniorKremlinofficial,
admittedthatthecountryseconomicwoeswereduelargelytofailuretoreformduringthefatyears.56Security
CouncilSecretaryNikolaiPatrushev,too,hasstressedtheneedtojump-starttheRussianeconomyasamatter
ofnationalsecurity.57
FromthepointofviewofMoscow,NATOsreinforcements
oftheBalticstatesandPolandhavebrokenyetanotherkey
Russianforeignpolicyandnationalsecurityexpertsfromresearchinstitutesandacademiahaveechoedthesame
senseofalarmaboutnewchallengesfacingRussiaasfoundinofficialgovernmentstatementsanddocuments.
Theyhavestressedtheincreasinglychaotic,seeminglyall-against-allnatureoftheinternationalsystemandthe
weakeningofthemaincentersofglobalpower,includingtheUnitedStatesandEurope.58However,thatis
hardlyacauseforcelebration,forRussiaisfindingitselfwithoutreliablepartnersinthissituation(therelationship
withChinaistreatedwithcautioninthiscontexttimewilltellhowitturnsout).59AsaresultoftheUkraine
crisisandthebreakwiththeWest,Russiahasbeenleft,asCarnegiesDmitriTreninputit,aloneagainstall.60
crisis.61Thebiggestblowwasdealtbythecollapseinoilpricesandtheendoftheglobalcommoditiesboom.
MakingmattersworsewasacombinationofshrinkingGDP,chroniclackofinvestment,currencydevaluation,
lossofaccesstoWesterncapitalmarkets,andhighinflation.Thepoliticalenvironmentwasnobetter,duetothe
escalationofmilitaryactivitiesabroad,theintensifyingcrackdownontheopposition,andthemurderof
oppositionpoliticianBorisNemtsov.
Takentogether,thesewereallsignsoffundamentalproblemsforapoliticalleadershipthatwassteadfastly
resistingcomprehensivereforms.Stagnationandthefailuretocarryoutfar-reachingeconomic,political,and
technologicalmodernizationcouldhavemajorsecurityimplications.Withoutreforms,Karaganovwarnedatthe
gatheringoftheestablishmentCouncilonForeignandDefensePolicy,defeatawaits[Russia]inthefuture
political,economic,andmilitary-strategiccompetitionofthetwenty-firstcentury.62HermanGref,theheadof
themajoritystate-ownedbiggestRussianbankSberbank,echoedthesewordsinearly2016,when,speakingat
apublicgatheringofeconomistsandseniorgovernmentofficials,hedescribedRussiaasalosercountry.63
NoLightattheEnd
TheseandothersimilarlygloomyassessmentsthathavepermeatedtheentirespectrumofRussianpolitical
opinion,fromofficialgovernmentdocumentsandestablishmentfigurestoscholarsatresearchinstitutionsto
oppositionfigures,pointtoaprofoundsenseofinsecurityinRussiasestablishmentcircles.64Goneisthe
confidenceofthefirsttwopresidentialtermsofVladimirPutin.TheearlybravuraresponsetoWesternsanctions
anddeclarationsthatRussianindustrycanmorethanmakeupforthelossofimportedgoodsandgrowthanksto
importsubstitutionandthecheaperRussianrublehavebeenderidedasdelusional.65Someofthemostalarmist
commentatorsgosofarastoclaimthattheRussianeconomyisbackslidingintothecategoryofindustrialand
evenpreindustrialeconomies,rapidlyfallingbehindtothepointwhereonedayitcouldceasetobean
independentactorintheinternationalarena.66AsasignoftheprevailinggloomamongRussianeconomic
analysts,includingseniorgovernmentofficials,theendofthecurrenteconomiccrisis,whichsomebelieveRussia
isalreadyapproaching,maynotleadtogrowthinstead,inthewordsofthefirstdeputychairoftheCentral
BankofRussia,XeniaYudayeva,itwillmarkthebeginningofeternalorlong-termstagnation.67
ThisbriefoverviewofthenarrativeinofficialRussianoutletsandsocietaldiscoursepointstoalackofconfidence
onthepartofRussianelitesintheirleadership,intheirownabilities,andinthecountrysfuture.Thetimesof
trouble,whichmanyifnotmostRussiansoncethoughtwereleftbehindinthe1990s,appeartobeanythingbut
safelybehindthem.RussianassessmentsofthepresentsituationinandaroundRussiacanbesummarizedina
fewshortsentences:
TheRussianeconomyhasoutliveditsmodelofdevelopmentandcanatbeststagnateandstayfirmly
lodgedinthemiddle-incometrapthepoliticalsystemisnotabletoaddressthetensionsthatarebuilding
withinsociety.
Russiahasnoreliablepartnersandisfacingavastlysuperioradversarywhoseeconomyismuchbigger
andbetterperformingthanRussiasandwhosemilitaryandtechnologicalcapabilitiesaretheenvyandthe
targetofRussiasownmilitaryreformanddefensemodernizationplans.
NotwithstandingtheimpressiverevivalofRussianmilitarycapabilitiesandthebattlefieldvictoriesinUkraine,
RussianassessmentsoftheRussianmilitaryhavebeenpermeatedbyadeepsenseofinferiorityvis--visNATO.
AnauthoritativeassessmentofferedbyaleadingRussianmilitaryanalystintheaftermathoftheactivephaseof
theconflictineasternUkrainedescribedthemilitaryconfrontationbetweenRussiaandUkraineasabattle
betweentwoobsoletemilitaries,oneofwhich(Russias)wasbettertrained,equipped,andled.68
Ahypotheticalsimilarconflict,theanalysiscontinued,withparticipationbyvolunteersfromNATOcountries
wouldfollowaverydifferentscenario.TheRussianmilitarywouldfaceafarsuperiorenemy,onethatisbetter
equipped,bettertrained,betterled,andbettersustained.FromthesizeofNATOsgroundforcetosmart
weaponsinitsarsenaltoitselectronicwarfarecapabilities,theRussianmilitarywouldbeoutnumbered,
outgunned,outdone.Russiasonlyrecourseinsuchcircumstances,theanalysisconcludes,istothreatenthe
adversarywithtacticalnuclearweapons.Thecountry,thearmy,andthenavyarenotyetreadyforalarge-scale
conventional-onlywar.69
ThissenseofvulnerabilitypermeatesRussianmilitarythinkingaboutfutureconflictsandthreatassessmentsas
theypertaintoeverysphereofmilitaryactivityconventional,nuclear,cyberwar,andinformationwarfare.None
ofthisisnewandreflectslong-standingRussianandearlierSovietconcernsaboutthecountrysinferiormilitary
capabilitieswhenstackedagainstNATOs.
conflictinEurope.70WidelyinterpretedinpubliccommentaryintheWestasevidenceofRussianaggressiveness
andmilitaristicambitions,thesestatementshavebeenechoedindomesticRussiandiscussionsabouttheroleof
nuclearweaponsinafuturewar.71
ThatwarwouldbefoughtagainsttheWest.Russia,writesSergeyBrezkun,professoroftheAcademyof
MilitarySciences,needstodevelopitsownde-escalationladderinordertolimitafutureregionalconflict
atanearlystageandpreventitfromblowingupintoalarge-scalewar.72Russianleaders,helaments,havenot
adequatelyaddressedtheproblemofregionaldeterrence,whichisbecomingallthemoreurgentbecauseof
whathecharacterizedastheweakeningofthepolitical-militarypositionsoftheRussianFederation,
proliferationontheperipheryofRussiaofhostileregimesmanipulatedbytheWest,andthedeclineofRussias
conventionalcapabilities.Inthesecircumstances,theideaofmassivenuclearretaliationinresponsetoaregional
crisisisirrationalandimpractical.Russianeedsoptionsforde-escalatingthecrisisinitsbeginningphasewiththe
helpoflimitednuclearstrikesagainstkeyassetsoftheenemy,butwithoutcatastrophicconsequences,aswell
asnuclearweaponsspecificallydesignedforthispurpose.Suchlimitednuclearstrikes,Brezkunargues,willhave
asoberingeffectontheenemy,whichwillthenceaseanddesist.
unimaginable,acombinationofNATOsconventional,
nuclear,andmissiledefensecapabilitiescouldprove
devastatingtoRussiasnucleararsenalanddenyittheability
todeliveraretaliatorystrike.
Russianmilitarystrategistslackofconfidenceintheirconventionalcapabilitiesisalong-standingphenomenon
thatpredateseventhebreakupoftheSovietUnionandtheimplosionoftheRussianeconomyanditsdefense-
industrialsector.OneoftheearliestvoicestosoundalarmabouttheWestsemergingsuperiorconventional
capabilitiesinthe1970sand1980swasMarshalNikolayOgarkov,thechiefoftheGeneralStaff.73Thislackof
confidencemayappearsurprisingintheaftermathofRussianmilitaryreform,inthemidstofaten-yeardefense
modernizationprogram,increaseddefensespending,andtheRussianarmysstringofsuccessfuloperations.Still,
U.S.andotherNATOcountriesconventionalcapabilitiescontinuetoimpressRussianmilitaryobserversand
feedtheirinsecuritywithrespecttotheirown.
Butthisdeep-seatedfeelingofinsecuritycomparedwithNATOapparentlygoesbeyondtheconventionalsphere
andappliestoRussiasstrategicandtacticalnuclearcapabilitiesaswell.Intheworstpossiblecase,whichto
Russianplannersisnotunimaginable,acombinationofNATOsconventional,nuclear,andmissiledefense
capabilitiescouldprovedevastatingtoRussiasnucleararsenalanddenyittheabilitytodeliveraretaliatory
strike.Facedwiththishighlyimprobableprospect,Russianmilitaryplannershavetoconsiderfirst-useoptionsas
ade-escalatorymeasurethatwillpersuadetheenemyofthefutilityofitsactions.Otherwise,ifnuclearweapons
arenotusedearlyinaconflictforthepurposeofendingit,Russiamaynotbeabletousethematallandbe
defeated.
ThesamelackofconfidenceinRussianretaliatorycapabilitiesisapparentinRussiandiscussionsabouttheneed
foradoomsdaymachinelikeschemetoensureamassiveretaliatorystrikeintheeventofadevastatingattack
onRussiadiscussionsreminiscentofStanleyKubricksDr.Strangelovecharacter.74Inanapparently
deliberateleak,Russianmediarevealedtheexistenceofahigh-yieldunmannednucleartorpedothatcouldbe
launchedasaretaliatoryweaponagainstamajorU.S.coastalurbancenterandwouldresultinmassivehuman
lossandeconomicdevastation.75AnotherproposalcalledforRussiatousemassivenuclearchargestotrigger
catastrophictsunamis,volcaniceruptions,orearthquakesthatwouldcausedevastationoflargeareasofthe
UnitedStatesalongtheWestcoast.76
RussianmilitaryplannersconcernsaboutthethreatofU.S.missiledefensestotheirretaliatorycapabilitieslong
predatethedecisionsbytheadministrationsofObamaandhispredecessorasU.S.president,GeorgeW.Bush,
todeploymissiledefensesintheUnitedStatesandEurope.Someanalystshavegonesofarastosaythatformer
presidentRonaldReagansStrategicDefenseInitiative(commonlycalledStarWars)inthe1980swas
responsibleforconvincingtheSovietPolitburothattheUnitedStatesenjoyedvastmilitary-technological
superiority.NotonlycouldtheUnitedStateslaunchasurpriseattackontheSovietUnion,theseanalysts
concluded,butitcouldalsoacquirethemeansofdenyingtheSovietUnionthecapabilityofdeliveringa
retaliatorystrike.77Thearmsrace,inotherwords,couldnotbewon,andthatinturnledtotheendoftheCold
War.78
RussianconcernsaboutU.S.missiledefensecapabilitiesthusappeartohavedeeproots.Theyhavebeen
restatedwithsurprisingcandorbyRussianofficials.RussianMinistryofForeignAffairsSpecialEnvoyGrigory
Berdennikov,replyingtoaquestioninFebruary2015aboutfuturearmscontrol,said,
Onehastounderstandthatnuclearweaponsarenotsomethingthatstandsalone,theyarepartofthe
strategicbalance.Tomoveaheadwithnuclearweaponsreductions,itisnecessarytotakeintoaccount
otherfactorsfirstofall,thefactoroftheglobalmissiledefensesystem,whichtheAmericans,despite
all[our]arguments,stubbornlydonotwanttodiscusswithus....
Theentiresystemofmutualrelationsinthenuclearsphereisbasedondeterrence.Inotherwords,you
havetohavethecapability,havingsurvivedthefirststrike,toretaliate,andinsuchawaythatthe
retaliatorystrikeissoterriblethatnobodywoulddaretolaunchthefirstone.Ifaneffectivemissile
defensesystemappears,thensomeonemayhavetheillusionthatmostoftheweaponsoftheenemycan
bedestroyedinthefirststrikeandtherestcanbemoreorlessintercepted.Thesmalleryourarsenal,the
easieritistointerceptwhatsleftafterthefirststrike.Andwearebeingtold[bytheAmericans],Well
continuetodevelopthesedefensivesystems,butletusreducefurthertheoffensivesystems.Forwhat?
Tohaveafirmguaranteethatthesecondstrikewillbeintercepted,tohavethefreedomtolaunchthe
firststrike?Isthatwhywearedoingallthis?79
Russianconcernsandcandorarenotlimitedtothenuclearsphere.Continuinghispointaboutthefallacyof
treatingnuclearweaponsasastand-alonecapability,Berdennikovsaid,
Wearepreparedforadialogueaboutfurthernucleardisarmamentsteps.Atthesametime,weare
convincedthattheyareimpossiblewithoutsolvingsuchproblemsastheunlimitedgrowthofglobalU.S.
missiledefenses,theprojectofusingstrategicweaponswithconventionalwarheadswithintheconcept
ofglobalstrike,...therefusaloftheUnitedStatestopledgenottodeployweaponsinspace,[and]
thegrowthofqualitativeandquantitativeconventionalimbalances.80
weaponscontinuetoperforminthedefenseoftheRussianstate.81Athreattothoseweaponsisathreattothe
survivalofanindependentandsovereignRussianstate.
NewThreats
TheexpandingrangeofU.S.strategiccapabilitiesnuclear,high-precisionandlong-rangeconventional,and
missiledefensehasbeenamajorpreoccupationofRussianmilitaryanalysts.82Russianconcernaboutthese
capabilitiesisreflectedincandidstatementsaboutthethreattheypose,aswellasreassurancesthatRussian
strategicsystemsarerobust,reliable,andimpervioustoU.S.offensiveordefensivearsenals.83
Theconversationaboutthechangingnatureofwarfare,therolesofnuclearandnon-nuclearweapons,and
deterrencehasbeenunderwayamongRussianexpertsandmilitaryofficialsfordecades,beginningwiththe
writingsofOgarkov.ThisconversationreflectsthedeepconvictionamongRussiananalystsandplannersthat
RussiahasfallenfarbehindtheUnitedStatesinthedevelopmentofhigh-precisionconventionalweaponryand
non-nucleardeterrentcapabilities.84Italsoreflectstheirviewthatgradually,theperformancecharacteristicsof
non-nuclear,high-precisionweaponsareimprovingsomuchthattheycouldbegintotakeonthefunctionsthat
untilnowhavebeenassignedexclusivelytonuclearweapons.85Asaresult,thetaskfacingtheRussianmilitaryof
deterringsuperioradversariesequippedwithsuchsystemsisincreasinglychallenging.86
invincibleandcapableofreliablydefendingagainstand
deterringanyenemy,Russiandefenseexpertsappearto
harbordoubts.
TheranksofRussianmilitaryanalystsincludeanumberofskepticswhodoubtnotsomuchtherelativestateof
affairsinthedevelopmentofU.S.andRussianarsenalsasthepropositionthatconventionalhigh-precision
systemswillbeabletotakeovermissionsassignedtonuclearsystems.87Theseskepticsbelievethatthe
principalthreattoRussiasnucleardeterrentandretaliatorycapabilitiesisposedbyU.S.nuclearsystemsand
thatpriorityshouldbegiventoprogramsintendedtocounterthosesystems.However,eventheseskeptics
concludethatalthoughnon-nuclear,precision-guidedweaponscannotsupplantnuclearweapons,theycanaffect
thestrategicbalanceinsignificantways.88
Tomeetthischallenge,Russiandefenseexpertscontinuetoemphasizenuclearweapons.Althoughmuchhas
beenmadeoftheseriesofRussianconventionalshipbornecruisemissilestrikesfromtheCaspianSeaagainst
targetsinSyria,thesemuch-toutedcapabilitiesintheeyesofRussianexpertsareapparentlynotyetsufficientto
deterNATOthreatstoRussiainEurope.89
InSeptember2014,DmitryRogozin,thedeputyprimeministerinchargeofdefenseindustries,pledgedto
modernizetheentireRussianstrategicnuclearforcesby2020,notmerely70percentaspreviouslyplanned.90
AccordingtoShoigu,56percentofRussiannuclearweaponsarenew.91ThechiefoftheGeneralStaff,General
ValeryGerasimov,echoedRogozinsvowandreferredtoprioritydevelopmentofstrategicnuclearforcesasthe
MinistryofDefensesmostimportanttask.92
However,despitetheseacceleratedprogramsandbravuraassurancesthatthenationsnuclearshieldisinvincible
andcapableofreliablydefendingagainstanddeterringanyenemy,Russiandefenseexpertsappeartoharbor
doubtsthatthesemeasuresaresufficient.93Thus,somehavesuggestedthatevendeployingIskandershort-range
ballisticmissiles,capableofcarryingnuclearwarheads,toCrimeaandKaliningradmayproveinsufficientto
deterpotentialenemies.94Instead,toaccomplishthatgoal,RussiamayhavetowithdrawfromtheIntermediate-
RangeNuclearForcesTreatyandreintroducethatclassofweaponsintoitsarsenal.95Russiancommentators
maintainthatsuchastepisbeingcontemplatedbecauseofthecombinedthreatofNATOmissiledefensein
Europeandtheacquisitionofintermediate-rangemissilesbyPakistan,India,andIran.96
OfficialstatementsofferassurancesthatRussiawillusenuclearweaponsonlyintwocircumstances:inretaliation
forastrikeagainstitoritsalliesusingnuclearweaponsorsomeotherformofweaponsofmassdestructionorif
RussiaisavictimofanaggressionthatusesconventionalweaponsbutthreatenstheverysurvivaloftheRussian
state.97However,RussiandefensepolicydiscussionsrevealthatseniorRussiandefenseplannersalso
contemplateanothercontingency:launchingpreventivenuclearstrikes,whetherofalimitednatureintendedto
de-escalateaconflictoronalargerscale.98ThiscouldamounttoyetanothertacitadmissionofRussiandefense
plannerslackofconfidenceintheirsecond-strikecapability.Iftheydontusetheirnuclearweapons,inother
words,theylosethem.
NuclearweaponscertainlyarethecriticalelementofRussiandefensepolicyandwillremainsoforalongtime.
Russiandefenseexpertsandofficialsreadilyadmitthattheirindustrialandtechnologicalinferioritywillprevent
themfrommatchingU.S.advancedmilitarytechnologiesintheforeseeablefuture.99Thisundoubtedlyfeedstheir
alreadydeeplyheldfeelingofinsecurityandinferiorityvis--vistheWest,whichisonlyreinforcedbythe
proliferationofnewtechnologiesandcapabilitiesfordifferentformsofwarfare.
AsifU.S.nuclear,high-precisionconventional,andmissiledefensetechnologieshavenotbeenenoughtofuel
anxietiesofRussiandefenseplanners,theadventofcyberwarfarehasaddedtotheirsenseofinsecurity.Thisis
nottosaythatRussiahasnotsustaineditsownvastcyberwarfareeffortorinvestedpriortotheadventof
cybertechnologyinwhatRussiandefenseexpertscallradio-electronicwarfareorinformationwarfare.Ithas.
However,theinformationrevolutionanduniversalcomputerizationofeverysphereofstateandsocietalactivity
hascreatedamultitudeofnewthreats.
Theworldisenteringanewphaseofwarfare,accordingtoRussiandefenseexperts,whoassertthat
cyberwarfareisnolongerawarofthefuture.100Itistakingplacenowanew,fifthdomain,alongwithland,air,
sea,andspace,inwhichwarcanandwillbewaged.Cyberwarfaretakesprecedenceoverkineticwarfareandis
beingundertakenbystatescontinuously.Theboundarybetweenwarandpeaceisbeinggraduallyerased.
CyberwarfarecanthreatenRussiainawidevarietyofways,fromparalyzinganddestroyingitsinfrastructureto
disablingitscomputernetworksorinsertingdeliberatelyfalseinformationanddisseminatingittothepopulation.
AccordingtoRussianexperts,thedestructivepotentialofcyberweaponsiscomparabletothatofnuclear
weapons.101Cyberweaponscancreatepanic,plungesocietiesintochaos,underminelegitimategovernments,
suppressanationswilltoresistaggression,andparalyzeitsarmedforces.Theycanwinwarsbeforeeventhe
firstshotisfired.102Understandingtheconsequencesofthisformofwarfareisofutmostimportanceforthe
Russianmilitary,whichhasalreadybegunthiseffort.103
InformationwarfarehaslongbeenamajorareaofinterestandconcernforRussiannationalsecurityofficials.
TheRussianSecurityCounciladoptedtheDoctrineofInformationSecurityofRussianFederationasearlyas
2000andsincethenhasdevelopedawholelibraryofsupportingdocumentstoguideRussianpolicyinthis
sphere.104Sincethen,Russianconcernsaboutthreatsposedbyoffensiveoperationsofcyberwarand
informationwarhaveincreasedmanifold,andtheissuehasbeenactivelydiscussedamongdefenseandsecurity
experts.105The2016NationalSecurityStrategystatesthatintheinterestofprotectingstateandpublicsecurity,
thegovernmentwillundertakethenecessarystepstoimprovetheprotectionofcitizensandsocietyfromthe
effectsofdestructiveinformationpropagatedbyextremistsandterroristorganizations,foreignintelligence
services,andpropagandaoutlets.106
ThesensitivityandurgencyofthepotentialthreattoRussiafromthecyberdomainwasunderscoredin2014
whenPutindeclaredGoogleaspecialprojectoftheU.S.CentralIntelligenceAgencyandurgedRussiansto
avoidusingit.TheRussianleaderscommentsaboutU.S.controloftheInternet,combinedwiththeRussian
governmentslong-termpursuittoestablishsovereigncontroloverRussiasportionoftheInternet,reflectthe
insecuritynotonlyoftheelitesbutalsoofthegeneralpublicaboutthecountrysvulnerabilitytocyberattacksand
informationattacksfromadversaries,bothrealandimagined.107Thisinsecuritygoessofarastomotivatethe
RussiangovernmenttoseekwaystocontroltheRussianInternetandevenconsiderwaystoineffectunplug
RussiafromtheInternetinanemergency.108SovereigncontroloverRussiasportionoftheInternethasbeena
long-standinggoaloftheRussiangovernmentspositionininternationalforumsdealingwithInternetgovernance
agoalthathasservedasanelementofRussian-ChinesepartnershipinoppositiontoU.S.andotherWestern
nationspursuitofthefreeflowofinformationwithoutborders.109Inthefuture,theRussiangovernmentspursuit
ofcapabilitiestoregulateand,ifnecessary,switchofftheInternetisexpectedtointensifyasitconsidersafree
andunimpededInternetasoneofitsbiggestthreats.110
IntheviewofRussiannationalsecurityexperts,thefuturehasarrived.TheeffectonRussiahasbeento
aggravateitssenseofencirclement,compounditsvulnerabilities,andmultiplythreatstoit.
WarbyOtherMeans
ThedeteriorationofthisperceivedthreatenvironmentintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisishasspawneda
discussionamongRussiannationalsecurityexpertsaboutvariousformsofnonkinetic,nonstopwarfarewagedby
theWestagainstRussiaeveninpeacetime.Inadditiontoinformationwarandcyberwarfare,theyhavefocused
onWesterneconomicsanctionsagainstRussiaasaformofcontinuous,undeclaredwarfare.
TheKremlinsresponsetosanctionscanbesummedupasamovetowardeconomicnationalismand
isolationism.WhenVisaandMasterCardcutoffservicestotwoRussianbanksthatweresanctionedbythe
UnitedStates,themovehighlightedfortheRussiangovernmenttheeconomysheavyrelianceonWestern
paymentsystemsanditsresultingvulnerabilitytofurtherWesternsanctions.Inresponse,theCentralBankof
RussiahasannouncedaplantocreateanationalpaymentsystemtoinsulateRussiafromWesternpressureinthe
eventofanewroundofsanctions.111ThemorerecentthreattocutoffRussianaccesstoSWIFT(Societyfor
WorldwideInterbankFinancialTelecommunication)hasledtheRussiangovernmenttoconsideroptionsfor
settingupanalternativeinpartnershipwithChina.112
Thedefense-industrialsectorhasbeendirectedtodiminishandeventuallyeliminateitsrelianceonforeign
suppliers.113Thedesiretoenddependenceonforeignsuppliersisnotlimitedtothedefensesector,forinMay
2016,Putintaskedthecabinetwithstimulatingdomesticmanufacturinganddevelopingsubstitutesforforeign
importsthroughouttheeconomy.Inafurthermovetoinsulatetheeconomyfromforeigninfluence,Putinordered
thegovernmenttodevelopandimplementstepsfordeoffshorizationofmajorindustrialenterprisesbydeveloping
tax,accounting,andcriminallegislationaimedatdiscouragingcompaniesfromlocatingfacilitiesoffshore.114
Theideathatsanctionsrepresentaformofwarfareoraninstrumentofcoercionishardlyneworuniqueto
Russia.Ithasalonghistory,andrecordeddiplomacyandwarfarearerepletewithexamplesofitdatingallthe
waytoancientGreece.115Nonetheless,Westernsanctionsandtheeconomicslumpthathasfollowedtheir
impositionalthoughcausednotonlybythemundoubtedlyhaveunderscoredRussiasvulnerabilitytooutside
forcesandthehostileenvironmentaroundit.
ThetakeoverofCrimeabytheRussianmilitaryand,subsequently,theoperationsineasternUkrainehave
focusedtheattentionofforeignandRussianobserversonso-calledhybridwarfare.Thisterm,whichreferstoa
widerangeofkineticandnonkineticactivitiesbymilitarypersonnelandcivilians,hasbeenthesubjectof
extensivediscussionsinRussiaasbothathreattoRussiansecurityandRussiasresponsetothreatstoitposed
byhostilepowers.
Ukraine,whichentailsamixofspecialforces,civilians,informationoperations,cyberattacks,and,onsome
occasions,uniformedmilitarypersonnel.116Presumably,acombinationofthesecapabilitiesinacrisis
environmentcanbeusedtoachievesurpriseandconfusetheadversaryandtoaccomplishpoliticalandmilitary
objectiveswithoutresortingtolarge-scalekineticwarfareandanoutrightwardeclaration,whichinturncan
presentanadversarywithafaitaccompliandavoidunnecessarycasualtiesandescalationofhostilitiesfor
Russia.CountriesthatshareborderswithRussia,especiallytheBalticstates,someofwhichhavelargeRussian
populations,areespeciallyvulnerabletothistypeofwarfare,Westernofficialshavewarned.117
aggression,thusrunningtheriskofconfusionandcontroversyamongtheallieswithrespecttomilitaryactionin
defenseoftheBalticstatesinaccordancewiththealliancesArticle5guarantees.
RussiandefenseexpertsalsochargethattheWestisconductinghybridwarfareagainstRussiathrougha
combinationofmilitaryandothermeans,includingsanctionsandinformationwarfare.118Theirinterpretationof
hybridwarfareunderscoresthedestabilizingfunctionoftheWestsdemocracypromotionactivitiesspecifically
thecolorrevolutionsinthecountriessurroundingRussia.InRussiasview,thoseactivities,throughmeasureswell
shortofwar,createazoneofinstabilityaroundRussia,encircleitwithWesternagentsofinfluence,andcreate
opportunitiesforWesternintervention.119Moreover,instabilitythreatensnotonlyRussiasneighborsbutalso
Russiaitself,becausesupportforgroupsinsideRussiaopposedtotheRussiangovernmentcanalsobe
interpretedasanelementofhybridwarfare.120Large-scalewarfarehasbecomedangerous,evensuicidal,for
thepartiesinvolved,duetothedestructionassociatedwithitwithorwithoutnuclearweapons.Andthatinturn
necessitatesresortingtootherformsofwarfarethatcarrysmallerrisksofcatastrophicconsequences.
SomeRussiandefenseanalystshavearguedthatdespitethepublicitysurroundingthetermhybridwarfare
sincethestartoftheconflictinUkraine,theconceptisneithernewnorparticularlytransformative.121For
example,theynote,informationoperationshavelongbeenacriticalelementofstatesactivitiesintendedto
misleadanadversaryanddemoralizeitspopulationandcombatants.Deploymentofmilitarypersonnelwithout
nationalinsigniaisalong-standingpracticeinwarfare,asistheuseofproxiesandregularforcesundertheguise
ofvolunteers.Theargumentaboutthenoveltyofhybridwarfarethusdoesnotstanduptoscrutinyandis
contradictedbyalongandrichhistoricalrecordofvariousconflicts.122
TheRussiangovernmentsapproachtodealingwithUkraine-relatedsanctionsimposedbytheUnitedStatesand
theEuropeanUnionisindicativeofwhatRussianbehaviorcanbeexpectedtobelikeinfuturecrises.By
focusingonsomeoftheweakerandpoorerEUandNATOmembersGreeceorBulgaria,forinstance
Russianofficialshaveapparentlysoughttounderminebothorganizationsconsensusonsanctionsagainst
Russia.123Similarly,thereportedfinancialtiesbetweenFrancesfar-rightNationalFrontandaMoscow-based
bankarelikelyintendedtosecureaRussianfootholdinFrenchdomesticpoliticsandtoseektoinfluenceFrench
policy.124PoliticalpartiesandindividualpoliticiansandofficialsintheCzechRepublic,Germany,andLatviahave
allbeentargetedbytheRussiangovernment.125
reconnaissance,andvariousothermilitary,paramilitary,andcivilianpersonnelareallfairgame.Corruption,
blackmail,relianceoncriminalnetworks,andoverteconomicassistanceareallfairgameasmeansofpreparing
thebattlefieldorachievingpoliticalobjectivesbeforethefirstshotisfired.
ABleakOutlook
TheprofoundsenseofinsecuritythatpermeatesRussiandiscussionsaboutthecountryspositioninEuropeand
Eurasiaiswelljustified.TherearemanyuncertaintiesinRussiasfuture,aswellasinthoseofitsneighbors,
potentialpartners,allies,andadversaries.However,thoseuncertaintiesdisappearwhenitcomestothis
prediction:theabilitiesofRussianleaders,militaryplanners,anddiplomatswillbethoroughlytestedintheyears
anddecadestocomeasafunctionofthedifficultgeopoliticalenvironmentandmultiplechallengesthecountryis
facingathome.
PredictingthetrajectoryofRussiaisaninherentlydifficulttask.FewpredictedthebreakupoftheSovietUnion
beforeitunraveledrapidly.Fewpredictedthatthecountrywoulddissolverelativelypeacefully.Fewpredicted
theeconomiccalamitythatfollowed,therecoveryofRussiaadecadelater,theeconomicboomthatfollowed,
theprotestsof2012,thewarwithUkraine,andthevirulentlyanti-WesternturninRussiandomesticandforeign
policies.Allofthesemajorshiftsoccurredintheshorthistoricallyspeakingspanoftwenty-fiveyears.
Russiaintoaseriesofsmallerstates,someofthemwithnuclearweaponsontheirterritoriesanotherwarinthe
SouthCaucasusanewrapprochementwiththeWestnecessitatedbytheneedformodernization,economicaid,
andhelpconsolidatingnuclearweaponsinwhatsleftofRussiaproper.Andallofthesecouldbefollowedbythe
riseofanationalistRussianregimebentongatheringthelostempireandreconstitutingthegreatRussianstate,
triggeringyetanotherconflictwithbothimmediateneighborsandtheWest.
Insum,noforecastofRussiasfuturecanbereducedtoastraightline.Russiahastoexploremultiple
possibilities.Ithastoconsiderpossibilitiesthatareliterallystrangerthanfiction.Andthenithastocautionthe
readertotakeallwithabiggrainofsalt.
ConsideringthemanychangesinRussiainthepastquartercentury,itiseasytooverlookthefactthateven
thoughthecountryunderwentamajorpoliticalshockwhentheSovietUnionbrokeup,itspoliticalsystemis
quitewellestablished.DespitesignificantdifferencesbetweentheYeltsinera,thePutinpresidency,andthe
Medvedevinterregnum,thepoliticalsystemchangedlittle.DescribedearlyinitsdevelopmentbylongtimeRussia
expertThomasGraham,ithasremainedessentiallyanoligarchywithallthetrappingsofamoderndemocracy,
butwithoutinternalideologicaldifferencesandmotivatedonlybycompetitionforpropertyamongoligarchic
groupsorclans.126Atthecenterofthisarrangementstandsapowerfulpresidentwhosemissionistomanage
competitionamongclansandthusmaintaindomesticstability.
EstablishedearlyduringtheYeltsinpresidency,thissystemhassurvivedlargelyintact.Someclansandoligarchs
havedeparted,andothershavereplacedthem.Thepowerofthepresidencyhasincreasedordecreased
dependingonthepersonalityoftheincumbent.Butthroughitall,thesysteminitsessencehasremainedintact.
Keyfeaturesofthissystemapowerfulexecutive,thecloserelationshipbetweenpowerandproperty,their
concentrationinthehandsofarelativelysmallelite,thelackofarepresentativegovernment,andtheprevalence
oftherulingideologypredatethecurrentRussianregimeandhavetheirrootsintheSovietandimperial
Russianperiods.Littleonthecountryspoliticallandscapesuggeststhatthesystemislikelytoundergosignificant
changesintheforeseeablefuture.Itmayundergosomechangesonthemargins,butthereisnothinginRussian
domesticpoliticstoindicatethatamorerepresentativeformofgovernmentislikelytoemergeinthenexttento
fifteenyears.Yet,changemayberequiredforthecountrytoovercomethemanyobstaclesfacingit.
StagnationLooms
In2016,wellintoPutinsthirdpresidentialterm,Russiafindsitselfconfrontedbyincreasinglybleakprospects.
AsnotedbymanyRussianobserversquotedinthispaper,theproblemisnotjustthatthepriceofoilislowor
thatthesanctionsimposedbytheEUandtheUnitedStateshavehurttheRussianeconomy.Theentiremodelof
economicdevelopmentpursuedbyRussiainthepastdecadeandahalf,theobserversconclude,hasoutlived
itself.
SomeRussiananalystshavenotedthesimilaritybetweenPutinsRussia,nowintheseventeenthyearofthe
Russianpresidentstenureatthehelm,andtheSovietUnionduringtheeraofLeonidBrezhnev,wholedthe
countryforeighteenyearsfrom1964to1982.127Then,too,theSovietUnionhadreachedadeadendandhad
toradicallychangecourseindomesticandforeignaffairs.
Russiasnextpresidentialelectionisscheduledin2018.Putin,whowillthenbesixty-fiveyearsold,willendhis
thirdpresidentialtermandwilleitherrunforyetanothersix-yeartermorstepasideeitherasatacticalmeasure
orasamovetowardretirement.ThelikelihoodofPutinsteppingasideretiring,ratherthanasatacticalmove
appearslowatthetimeofthiswriting.128
Moreover,Putinsdeparturefromthepoliticalstageshouldnotbeequatedwithimprovedprospectsforpolitical
oreconomicmodernizationinRussia.Theupperechelonofthecountryspoliticaleliteiscomposedofpeople
whoseoutlooksandbackgroundsaresimilartoPutins.Theirprospectsforimplementingmajorchangesinthe
countryspoliticalsystemoreconomyappearequallymodestatbest
IfPutinLeaves
electioninwhichanewleaderwouldbechosen.Thatishowtheprocessissupposedtoworkformally,and
thereislittlechancethatitwillnot.
Inreality,PutinsdeparturewouldholdthepossibilityofasignificantdestabilizationofRussianpolitics.He
occupiesauniquelypowerfulplaceinthecountryspoliticalsystem,actingasthecentralfigureamongvarious
interestsgroupsandclans,balancingtheircompetingdemandsandadjudicatingtheirdisputes.129Noother
politiciancomesclosetoPutinsstandinginthatsystem.Hehasnopoliticalheirorsecond-in-command.The
primeministercurrentlyDmitryMedvedevstepsintemporarilyifthepresidentisincapacitatedordiesin
office,untilanewpresidentiselectedwithinninetydays.Few,ifany,politicalanalystswouldarguethat
MedvedevisacrediblecandidateforthepresidencytosucceedPutinorapowerfulfigureinRussiandomestic
politics.
Intheabsenceofadesignatedpoliticalsuccessor,theprocessofnominatingacandidatefromthepoliticalelite
so-calledthepartyofpowerwouldbehighlycontested,almostcertainlymoresothantheelectionitself.Such
intra-elitestrugglestookplaceduringthe20072008period,whenPutinssecondtermwasduetoexpirebuthe
hadnotyetdesignatedhissuccessorormadeclearhisownplans.Similarly,in2011,Russianeliteswere
unsettledbythelackofclarityaboutthefutureoftheMedvedev-Putintandem.
ShouldPutindepartthepoliticalscenewithoutdesignatingasuccessor,therulingelitewouldhaveapowerful
incentiveinpreservingtheexistingsystemandavoidinganinternalsplit,thusincreasingthelikelihoodof
coalescingaroundasinglecandidate.Buttheprocessofselectingthatsinglecandidateislikelytobecontentious,
resultinginafiercecompetitionamongclansandinterestgroups.
decimatedasaresultofaseriesofsystematicmeasuresbythePutinadministrationtolimittheabilityof
oppositionpartiesandcivilsocietyatlargetoorganize,recruitmembers,raisefunds,orinanyotherway
participateinthepoliticallifeofthecountry.Noseriouscontenderforthepresidencyabletocompetewiththe
onenominatedbythepartyofpowerislikelytoemergefromtheranksoftheopposition.
However,theelectionwouldnotmarktheendofpoliticalinstabilityinRussia.Thenewleaderwouldhaveto
workhardtoconsolidatehis(mostlikelynother)powerandrestoretheequilibriumamongclansdisruptedby
Putinsdeparture.Thiswouldalmostcertainlybeaprocessthatwouldtakeyears,giventhesizeofthecountry,
themultitudeofitsclansandinterestgroups,regionalinterests,andthesorrystateoftheeconomythatwould
almostcertainlyleadtofiercecompetitionamongclansforalargershareoftheshrinkingpie.
Howlikelyisthecountrysnewpresidenttointroducemajorreformsindomesticorforeignaffairsinthat
environment?SuchreformsnotunliketheGorbachev-eradtentewiththeWestinforeignpolicyand
movementtowardderegulationandmarketcapitalismwouldundoubtedlyprovecontroversialandpolitically
difficult,fortheywouldaffectinterestsofvariousclansvestedinthestatusquo.Anynewleaderwouldhaveto
takethatintoaccount.AnewleaderwouldalsohavetotakeintoaccountthefragilityoftheRussianeconomy
andprobablybemindfulthatGorbachevsreformsendedincatastrophethebreakupofthecountry.Withthis
baggage,anynewleaderwouldlikelyproceedwithextremecaution,ifatall.Thelikelyoutcomeofthisscenario
wouldbeacontinuationofPutinism,butwithoutPutin,fortheremainderofthisdecade,ifnotlonger.Change
wouldhavetowaituntillater,perhapsuntilthesuccessorssecondpresidentialterm.
Oncechangecomes,itcouldprovedestabilizing.AfutureRussianleaderlaunchingmajorreformsinthemiddle
ofthethirddecadeofthetwenty-firstcenturywouldhavetocontendwithamultitudeofchallenges,including
astagnanteconomy
highbarrierstodomesticandforeigninvestmentexcessivegovernmentregulation,weakruleoflaw,
corruption,andpoorinfrastructureand
gravitationalpolesChina,Turkey,Europewillcreatepowerfulcentrifugalforcesandgreatlycomplicatethe
taskofthefederalgovernmentofmanagingtheeconomyandpoliticalsystem.Russia,whichisorganizedasa
federation,couldfacesomeofthesameseparatisttendenciesthattheSovietUnionencounteredamongits
constituentrepublicsinitsfinalyears.Alternatively,thiscouldresultinasignificantdelegationofpowerand
authoritytotheregions.ThepossibilityoffurtherfragmentationoftheRussianstatehastobeconsideredasone
ofrealcontingenciestofaceRussiaattheendofthe2020s.
Putinsdeparturefromthepoliticalsceneattheendofthecurrenttermdoesnotguaranteethathissuccessor
wouldundertakesignificantreformsindomesticorforeignpolicy.However,shouldsuchreformsbeattempted,
theycouldresultinasignificantdestabilizationofRussia.
IfPutinStays
TheprospectofPutinsreelectiontoafourthpresidentialtermin2018raisesthecriticalquestionofwhetherhe
iscapableofchange.Putinsreturntothepresidencyin2012provedasetbackforRussiasreformersand
advocatesofmodernizationafteraperiodwhenprospectsforeconomicandpoliticalmodernizationlooked
relativelybright.Since2012,theyhavedimmedconsiderably,andintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisisthey
appeartobenearlyextinguished.
Theneedforchangeinthecountryseconomicandpoliticallifecloselyrelatedtoeachotheriswidely
understoodandacknowledgedinRussiansociety.Itisequallywidelyunderstoodthatsignificantchangecould
provedestabilizingfortheestablishedpoliticalsystem.Asmentioned,theexperienceoftheGorbachev-era
reformscontinuestoserveasapotentcautionaryreminderofthedangersassociatedwithradicalchange.
Putinhasfirmlyandrepeatedlyrejectedtheideaofpoliticalmodernizationasathreattothecountrysstability.
Hisentirethirdtermcanbedescribedasantimodernization,includingsuppressionofcivilsociety,isolationof
RussiafromEuropeandtheUnitedStates,propagandaofso-calledtraditionalRussianvaluesasdifferentfrom
Europeanvaluesandnorms,prouddeclarationsthatRussiaisnotEurope,andapushtoautarkyineconomic
developmenttoinoculatethecountryfromthethreatofWesternsanctions.MovesbytheKremlintoassertthe
supremacyofRussianlawsoverinternationaltreatiessignedbyRussiaanddisconnectthecountryfromthe
InternetaresymbolicoftheantimodernizationspiritthathaspermeatedRussianpoliticsandpolicymakingsince
Putinsreturntothepresidency.
Putinhasraisedtheissueofeconomicmodernizationinhisspeechesrepeatedly.However,hisrecordinoffice
sincehisaccessiontothepresidencyin2000ofconsistent,step-by-step,deliberateconsolidationofpolitical
powerandeconomicleversinthehandsofthestateorasmallgroupofassociatescloselytiedtothestate
speaksmuchlouderthanhiswords.Ifheweretobecomeamodernizerlateinhispoliticalcareer,itwouldbea
radicaldeparturefromeverythinghehasdoneuntilnow.
Increasingly,economicmodernizationinRussiarequirespoliticalmodernizationaswell,andashiftfromthe
small,Kremlin-centeredoligarchytoamoreopeneconomicsystemwithstrongerruleoflaw,transparency,and
adegreeofcompetitiveness.Thatwillrequirereformsthatwouldchallengetheverypoliticalorderthatforthe
pastdecadeandahalfhasservedasthefoundationofRussiandomesticstabilityandPutinspersonalpowerand
hasitsrootsinthesystemthatemergedsoonafterthebreakupoftheSovietUnion.Theoutlookforachangeof
suchmagnitudeisnotencouragingfortheforeseeablefuture.
Underthepresentconstitutionalarrangement,andassumingPutinisreelectedin2018,hewillremaininoffice
until2024.Hewillbeseventy-onethenstillrelativelyyoungandquiteplausiblynotreadytodepartthepolitical
stage.TheprospectofPutinremainingatthehelmasfaras2030isquitereal,justastheprospectofhis
changingcourseisquiteremote.
ThisisnottosaythatRussiawillcontinueindefinitelyalongitspresentglidepath.Theabsenceofreformsand
lackofprogresstowardmodernizingthecountryspoliticalsystemandeconomyareboundtotaketheirtollon
itseconomy,itspolitics,anditsinternationalstanding.Thisisalmostcertaintotriggerdiscontinuitiespolitical,
security,andeconomic.Thatsaid,anyattemptbyPutinorhissuccessortotacklethischallengeisfraughtwith
significantrisksofdiscontinuity.Inshort,Russiaisfacingadifficultdecadeoradecadeandahalf,regardlessof
Putinscourse.
Theweaknessofandsevererestrictionsonoppositionpoliticalpartiesandcivicorganizationsvirtuallypreclude
thepossibilityofapowerfulstructuredchallengetothePutinregime.However,therestrictionsonorganized
politicalactivitiescandolittletolimitspontaneousmanifestationsofdiscontentandgrassrootsactionsinresponse
toadecliningstandardofliving,actionsoflocalauthorities,orintercommunal,interracial,orinterconfessional
tensions.130Thegrowthofsuchprotestactivitiescould,overtime,developintoapersistentpattern,creating
opportunitiesforpoliticalchallengestotheregime.Theregimesinabilityorunwillingnesstotackletheunderlying
economicpoliticalandeconomicproblemscouldexacerbatethechallengeandthethreattothecountrys
domesticstability.
Inadditiontothechallengetothecountryspoliticalstability,thelonglistofproblemsfacingtheRussian
governmentintheconditionsofastagnanteconomyandshrinkingresourcesincludesthethreatofyetanother
destabilizationintheNorthCaucasus,whererelativepeaceandstabilityhavebeenmaintainedthroughmassive
federaltransfersandcutsindefensespending,socialprograms,science,education,andotherprograms.131
Combinedwithlackofinvestmenteveninthecriticalenergysector,thesecutsthreatencascadinglong-term
effectsontheeconomy,furtherunderminingitsabilitytoinnovate,diversify,andgrow,allofwhichpointtothe
systemiccrisis.132
ChallengesAbroad
TomakemattersworseforRussianpolicymakers,theexternalenvironmenttheyarelikelytofacealongthe
immediateperipheryofRussiaandbeyondpromisestobeequallychallenging.TheUkrainecrisishas
compoundedthechallengesRussiannationalsecurityexpertshavelongfearedintheEuro-Atlantictheater.At
thesametime,thebreakinrelationswithEuropeandtheUnitedStateshasnotresultedinnewpartnershipsor
alliancesforRussiaelsewhere.Thishasoccurredatatimeofmajornewinstabilityintheinternationalarenain
generalandinregionsnearRussiainparticular.
InEurope,RussianthreatperceptionsandconcernsaboutNATOslowlymovingitsmilitarycapabilitiestoward
itsbordersarebecomingaself-fulfillingprophecyintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisis.If,priortotheannexation
ofCrimeaandthewarineasternUkraine,Russiawasconsideredbytheallianceasapossible,albeitincreasingly
unlikely,partner,thenRussianactionsinUkrainehaveputanendtosuchhopesforpartnershipandtransformed
therelationshipintoonethatisopenlyadversarial.133Thealliancescommitmentnottopermanentlystation
substantialcombatforcesontheterritoriesofnewmembersinthecurrentandforeseeablesecurityenvironment
disappearedwiththeannexationofCrimea,theaggressionineasternUkraine,andRussianthreatsagainstthe
BalticstatesandotherNATOmembers.
possibilities.InresponsetowhatseniorNATOofficialsdescribeasthemostdangerousthreattoEurope,
NATOisundertakingaseriesofstepsthatincludethestationingofU.S.andotherNATOtroopsandpre-
positioningofequipment,includingheavyU.S.equipment,inthefrontlinestatesfromtheBaltictotheBlackSea
planningforandtrainingtodefendagainstRussianaggressionandestablishmentofrapidresponseandbroader
responseforces.134AndnowSweden,neutralfornearlytwocenturies,andFinland,neutralsince1948,are
havingactivedebatesaboutjoiningthealliance.135
Further,theUkrainecrisishaspromptedcallsfromWesternmilitaryanalyststocounterRussianthreatsto
EuropewiththeverysystemsthatRussianassessmentshavelonghighlightedasdestabilizingandmost
threateningintheeventofacrisis.136Acombinationoflong-range,stealth,andprecisiontechnologies,if
deployedbyNATOalliesinacrisis,wouldbethefulfillmentofRussiandefenseplannersworstexpectations.
However,asidefromthepurelymilitarythreats,moreuncertaintyandpossiblyturmoilarelikelytoconfront
RussiainitsWesternstrategicdirection.ThebiggestchallengefacingRussiaalongitswesternfrontieristhe
unsettledconflictwithUkraine.RussianactionsinvolvingUkrainehaveservedasasourceoflong-term,deep
enmitybetweentwocountriesthatpreviouslyhadexperiencednone.Furthermore,theyhavecreatedalong-term
sourceofinstabilityinlieuofthepredictable,ifstagnant,relationshipthathadexistedbetweenRussiaand
UkraineforthequartercenturyfromthebreakupoftheSovietUniontotheannexationofCrimea.
Ukrainesoutlookfortheforeseeablefuturecanbestbedescribedalongtwouneasytrajectoriesmuddling
throughorreturningtoRussiasorbit.Thisbleakprospectisaproductofseveralcircumstances:thelegacyof
SovietrulecombinedwiththemisruleofthefirstquartercenturyofindependencethatleftUkraineacorrupt
oligarchythedepletedeconomybadlydamagedbytheconflictineasternUkraineandreformsthatwerenever
implementedandthelackofinterestintheWesttosupportUkrainewiththesamecommitmentEuropeandthe
UnitedStatesmadetointegratetheformerWarsawPactcountriesandBalticstatesintotheWesternpolitical,
economic,andsecuritystructures.Inaddition,theconflictineasternUkraineislikelytobesettledonlyasfrozen
ratherthanresolved,thusleavingapermanentwoundinUkrainesdomesticpolitics,economy,andsecurity.
Themuddling-throughscenariohasUkrainestayingonitspresentcourseofdifficult,haltingpoliticaland
economicreformsforthedurationofPresidentPetroPoroshenkostermuntil2019.ThisscenariohasUkraine
makingintermittentprogressinthefollowingareas:someimprovementinitsinvestmentclimategradualstructural
reformsoftheeconomy,especiallytheenergysectorandheavyindustrydecentralizationandsomecurbingof
thepowerofoligarchs.Allofthesechangespromisetobedifficultandpoliticallychallenging,threateningto
underminethegovernmentsprecariousstandinginthepollsandpossiblyleadingtoearlyparliamentaryelections,
furthercomplicatingthegovernmentstask.Thisscenarioalsoentailsimplementingadifficultsecurity-sector
reform,reequippingthearmedforces,andadaptingtoahostofEU-mandatedrequirementsthatmakeup
UkrainesAssociationAgreementandfree-tradeagreementwiththeEU.Thisisahighlyambitiousagendathat
atbestcanbeonlypartlyfulfilled,evenbythemostambitiousreformersandwiththehelpofgenerousaid,which
isunlikelytomaterialize.Allthewhile,UkrainewouldbeunderseverepressurefromRussia.
Together,thesewouldhaveaparalyzingeffectontheabilityofthegovernmenttofunction.TheInternational
MonetaryFund(IMF)agreementwouldthenbejeopardized,leadingtoahaltinIMFassistancetoUkraine.
OtherdonorassistanceconditionedoncompliancewithIMFrequirementswouldalsobeimperiled.Thisturnof
eventswouldprecipitateanothercrisis,afailureoftherulingcoalitionandearlyparliamentaryandpossibly
presidentialelectionsrestoringtopoweralessreform-mindedleadershipandreturningUkrainetothe
dysfunctionaloligarch-dominatedstateithadbeeninpriortotheEuromaidanantigovernmentuprisingin2013
2014.ThisscenarioalsoentailsthenewgovernmentsgradualaccommodationwithRussiainexchangefor
financialsubsidiesintheformoffavorabletermsforgastradeorloans.TheaccommodationwithRussiawould
provecontroversialwithmanyinUkraine,leadingtoadividedpolityandpermanentpoliticaltensions,
polarization,andgovernmentdysfunction.
Ineitherscenario,fortheforeseeablefuture,Ukraineislikelytoremainafragilestatestrugglingwithdomestic
reformsandcaughtinatug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWest.NeitherRussianorEuropeandtheUnited
StatesislikelytocountonUkraineasareliablepartner.ForbothRussiaandtheWest,Ukrainepromisestobea
sourceofeconomicandsecuritychallengesaswellasamajorsubjectoflong-termtensionsanddiscordintheir
bilateralrelations.
Similarlycaughtinatug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWestisUkrainesnorthernneighborBelarus.Ruledbya
wilyauthoritarianleader,AleksandrLukashenko,formorethantwodecades,thecountryhassurvivedinlarge
measurethankstoitsspecialrelationshipwithRussiaandhugesubsidiesfromMoscow,coupledwitha
repressiveregimethathassucceededineliminatingormarginalizingallopposition.
SincethecrisisinUkraine,LukashenkohassoughttodistancehimselfsomewhatfromMoscowandrebuild
bridgestotheWest.HiseffortshavemetwithreciprocalstepsonthepartoftheEU.137Someofthisoutreachto
theWestisnodoubtduetothediminishingeconomicprospectsinrelationswithRussiaandtheneedfor
economicassistancetokeeptheregimeafloat.138
Lukashenko,whoissixty-one,couldremaininofficeforanotherdecadeorlonger.Withhisskillatnavigating
betweenRussiaandtheWestprovedoverthecourseoftwodecadesandhisholdonpowerunchallenged,he
couldcontinuetomaneuverbetweenthetwoopposingsidesforanequallylongtime.
threateningtoitsinterests.TheBelarusianborderisbarely300milesfromMoscow.Apro-Westerngovernment
inMinskwouldundoubtedlybeseenbytheKremlininequallythreateningtermsasUkrainespursuitofan
AssociationAgreementwiththeEU,ifnotmoreso.BelarusiscloselyintegratedinRussiandefenseplansto
counterNATORussiahasambitionsforfurtherintegrationandexpansionofitsmilitarypresencethere.139
LukashenkosstatedoppositiontoaRussianairbaseinBelarusislikelytobeseeninMoscowasasignthatthe
Belarusianleaderisnotareliableallyandcannotbetrusted.140
AchangeinBelarussstrategicorientation,eitherasaresultofadeliberatedecisionbyLukashenkoorhis
successor,orasaconsequenceofadomesticupheaval,couldforcetheKremlinshandtolaunchyetanother
militaryintervention.ThistimeitwouldbedirectlyonRussiasborderwiththreeNATOmemberstatesLatvia,
Lithuania,andPoland.
RussianminorityinbreakawayTransnistria.Thecountryhasbeenshakenbyrepeatedscandalsandpolitical
proteststhathaveincapacitateditsgovernment.Moldovaremainsdividedbetweenthosewhoadvocatecloser
tieswithRomania,fromwhichitslargepartwassplitoffin1940asaresultoftheMolotov-RibbentropPact,
andthosewhowantclosertieswithRussia.141
Moldovaspoliticshasbeendysfunctionalformostofitshistoryasanindependentstate.Thereislittleinthe
countryscurrentpoliticaloreconomiclandscapeandoutlooktosuggestthatthenear-permanentgridlockis
likelytochangeandbereplacedbyabetter-functioninggovernmentthatwouldmovethecountryclosereitherto
RomaniaandtheEUortoRussia.Thepoliticalparalysisandeconomicstagnationarethereforelikelytocontinue
indefinitely,astheyhaveformuchofthepastquartercentury.
AnotherpossiblescenarioforMoldovaoverthenextdecadeoradecadeandahalfentailsagradualmigration
ofMoldovancitizenstoRomania,takingadvantageofRomaniasofferofpassports.Thiswouldeffectively
continuethetrendofworking-ageMoldovansleavingtheirhomelandasguestworkerselsewhereinEuropeorin
Russia.AccordingtoWorldBankdata,between2011and2015,personalremittancesamountedtomorethan
25percentofMoldovasGDP.142RussiaseconomicslowdownislikelytoaffectMoldovanguestworkers
there,increasingpressurestomigratetoEurope.RussiansanctionsagainstMoldovainretributionforitssigning
anAssociationAgreementwiththeEUarelikelytofurtherrestrictMoldovanguestworkersaccesstoRussia,
thusincreasingpressuresformigrationtoRomania.143Thiswouldineffectstimulateagradualhollowingoutof
MoldovaanditsdefactointegrationwithRomania.Aslongasthisprocessdoesnottriggeractionsleadingtoa
moreformalintegrationandanadversereactionfromRussia,thestatusquoinMoldovawouldremain.
OneofRussiasmajorbreakthroughrelationshipsaftertheColdWarwaswithTurkey.Thetwohistoricalrivals
builtanewrelationshipbasedonrecognitionofmutualbenefits.144Turkeyquicklyemergedasamajor
destinationforRussiantraders,tourists,andenergycompanies.Turkishcompaniesestablishedthemselvesinthe
Russianrealestatedevelopmentindustry,andTurkishagriculturalproducersfoundareadymarketfortheir
exportsinRussia.145
DefyingthelegacyoftheColdWarandcenturiesofgeopoliticalrivalrypriortothat,RussiaandTurkey
developedapartnershipthatseemeddestinedtogetstronger.Theirpartnershipwasbuoyedbytwoimportant
factors.First,bothcountriesstruggledtofindtheirplaceinEurope,which,despitepromisesofpartnership,kept
thematarmslength.Theotherfactorwastheblossomingpersonalrelationshipbetweenthetwocountries
presidents,PutinandRecepTayyipErdoan.Bothproudoftheirreputationsasstrongleaderstransformingtheir
countries,bothincreasinglyaccusedofauthoritarianbehaviorathomeandcriticizedforitabroad,thetwo
presidentsweredescribedinaWashingtonPostarticlesheadlineasmadeforeachother.146Thecivilwarin
Syria,inwhichRussiahassupportedthegovernmentofSyrianPresidentBasharal-AssadandTurkeyhas
soughttooverthrowit,hasintroducedfrictionsintherelationshipbetweenAnkaraandMoscowbutdidnot
changewhatPutindescribedasitsfriendlyandcooperativenature.147
TheRussian-Turkishrelationship,whichhadbeenfullof
promiseanddeliveredmuchtobothcountries,almost
instantlyrevertedtoitsoldadversarialrootswithnoprospect
ofimprovementintheforeseeablefuture.
ThemajorshiftinrelationsbetweenTurkeyandRussia,rekindlingtalkabouttheircenturies-oldgeopolitical
rivalry,occurredinlateNovember2015,whenaTurkishF-16fightershotdownaRussianSu-24groundattack
aircraft.148TheTurkishgovernmentsaidatthetimethattheRussianaircrafthadviolatedTurkishairspacea
claimdisputedbytheRussiangovernment.PutindescribedTurkishactionsasastabinthebackandreferred
totheTurkishgovernmentasaccomplicesofterrorism.149PutinreportedlyrefusedtheTurkishpresidents
outreachattempts,andtheRussiangovernmentproceededtoimposeeconomicsanctionsonTurkey.150A
relationshipthathadbeenfullofpromiseforbothcountriesanddeliveredsomuchtobothalmostinstantly
revertedtoitsoldadversarialrootswithnoprospectofimprovementintheforeseeablefuture.151
HavingregainedCrimea,andwithitsecureditsholdontheBlackSeaFleetbaseinSevastopol,Russiahas
sealedthetransformationoftheBlackSeaintoalong-termhostileenvironment.NoneoftheBlackSealittoral
statescanbecountedonasapartnerbyRussianmilitaryplanners.AllexceptforUkraineandGeorgiaare
NATOmembers.KyivandTbilisiviewRussiaasanaggressorandthebiggestthreattotheirsurvivalas
independentandsovereignstates,andbothhavemademembershipinthealliancethekeygoaloftheirnational
securitypolicies.ThesituationintheBlackSearegionisfurtheraggravatedfromMoscowsstandpointbythe
breakdowninRussian-TurkishrelationsfollowingRussiasmilitarydeploymenttoSyriaandtheshootingdownof
theRussianaircraftbyTurkey.
ThesituationintheSouthCaucasusishardlymorereassuringforRussiandefenseplanners,albeitfordifferent
reasons,largelyunconnectedtoNATO.Theregion,hometothreefrozenconflictsinNagorno-Karabakh,
Abkhazia,andSouthOssetia,ishighlylikelytoundergomajorchangesasafunctionofitsinternaldynamicsand
developmentsarounditinthenextfivetotenyears.
AmajordriverofchangeintheSouthCaucasuspromisestobeAzerbaijan.Hailedinthe1990sasasecular
Islamiccountrywithamoderateauthoritarianregimepresidedoverbyarelativelytolerantpro-Westernleader,
Azerbaijanalsohadvasteconomicpotentialthankstoitsoilwealthandopennesstoforeignoilcompanies
investment.Little,ifany,ofthatpromisehasmaterialized.Therelativelybenignandconfidentdictatorshipof
HeydarAliyevwasreplacedin2003bythekleptocratic,increasinglyinsecure,andhighlyintolerantregimeofhis
sonIlham.Theregimesappealtothepublicbasedonitsclaimofdeliveringameasureofwell-beinghasbeen
erodedbythedeclineinthepriceofoilthathasdealtasevereblowtoAzerbaijanseconomy.152Moreover,the
prospectofdepletingitsmajoroildepositsthreatensthecountrywiththelossofitscriticalsourceofrevenueata
timewhenitsalternativestrategyofpositioningitselfasakeysupplierandtransithubofnaturalgashasto
contendwiththesamefalloutfromthelowoilpriceenvironment.153
Theproteststhathaverockedthecountryastheeconomysputtersraisequestionsabouttheregimeslongevity
andabilitytosustaindomesticstability.Intheeventofaprolongedeconomicslumpcausedbylowoilprices,
IlhamAliyevsregimewouldhaveseveraloptions,noneofthemmutuallyexclusive:tocontinuetotightenthe
restrictionsontheoppositionandcivilsocietytotrytouseitsdecliningfinancialresourcestoaddressthemost
pressingneedsandtoappealtonationalunityandpatriotismbyexploitingthethemeofNagorno-Karabakhand
launchingamilitarycampaigntoregaintheoccupiedterritories.154
TheoutlookforAzerbaijancontainsbleakalternatives.Oneofthemisaninternaldestabilizationandlossof
controlbytheregime.AnotherwouldberenewedconflictwithArmeniaoverNagorno-Karabakh.Athird
possibilityentailsboth.
IlhamAliyevssuppressionofnotjustalloppositionbutnearlyallcivicorganizationsandmanifestationsof
independentopinionhasunderminedAzerbaijanstieswithEuropeandtheUnitedStates.Asaresult,theWest
wouldnothavethenecessaryleveragetomoderatetheregimesbehaviordomesticallyorinternationally.155
ThefightingthatbrokeoutbetweenArmeniaandAzerbaijaninApril2016servedasagrimreminderofhow
fragilethesituationisalongtheirlineofcontact.Tomakemattersworse,acrisisinvolvingAzerbaijanand
Armeniacoulddrawintoitthreecriticalexternalactors:Russia,Turkey,andIran.Allthreehavemajorstakesin
theregion.RussiaandTurkeywouldverylikelybepittedagainsteachotherinthenewconflictsupportingtheir
respectiveclientstates.InternalturmoilinAzerbaijanevenwithoutaconflictwithArmeniawouldalmostcertainly
involvemeddlingbyallthreeneighboringpowers,eachforitsownreasonsseekingtoexpanditsinfluenceinthe
country,whichtheyconsidertobeofcriticalgeopoliticalimportance.
AcrisisinvolvingAzerbaijanandArmeniacoulddrawintoit
threecriticalexternalactors:Russia,Turkey,andIran.
WithRussia,Turkey,andIrancompetingforinfluenceinAzerbaijan,thecountryandthesurroundingregion
couldexperiencespilloversfromtheconflictandtheneighborsreactionstoit.Thesewouldalmostcertainly
affectArmeniaandGeorgia,consideringtheboundarylinesdrawnwithoutregardtoethnicdivisions,and
infrastructureandsupplyroutesthattraversetheentireregion.
Predictingtheoutcomeofthisturmoilisaninherentlydifficulttask.Russia,Iran,andTurkeyallhaveadvantages
anddisadvantagesintheirpursuitofinfluenceoverAzerbaijan.RussiaandIranhavetheadvantageofshared
borderswithAzerbaijan,whileTurkeyhastheadvantageofethnickinshipandlong-terminvestmentinthe
relationshipwithAzerbaijan.However,RussiahashadtodealwithitsowntroubledNorthCaucasusIranhasto
bemindfulofitsownAzerbaijaniTurkishpopulationandTurkeywouldhavetocrossGeorgianorArmenian
territorytogettoAzerbaijan.Allofthesearelikelytobecomplicatingfactorsfortheirinvolvementthere,though
eachofthesecomplicatingfactorscouldserveasarationaleforinterveninginAzerbaijaniturmoil.
TheturmoilcouldlastforyearsandbecomepartofthelargerturmoilintheMiddleEast,withIranandTurkey
pittedagainsteachotherinSyria,Russian-TurkishrelationsattheirworstsincetheColdWar,andweapons,
refugees,militants,andillicitgoodscrossinginalldirections.TheCaucasusregionmaynotseestabilityreturnfor
adecadeorlonger.
Onceameasureofstabilityisrestored,theregion,boththeNorthandtheSouthCaucasus,maynotbe
recognizable,withnewbordersandpossiblyevensomestatesdisappearingfromthemap.Theshapeofthe
regionislikelytobedeterminedbydevelopmentsaroundtheregionRussiasowntrajectoryandabilityto
securetheNorthCaucasusTurkeysabilitytohandleitsKurdishproblemthefutureofIraqandtheconflictin
Syria.AllofthesewillhaveabearingontheCaucasusregion,whichisnolongerseparated,asitoncewas,from
theGreaterMiddleEast.Whatisclear,however,isthattheregionisheadingintoanuncertainfuturefullof
dangersallofthatonRussiasdoorstep.
CentralAsiaisinthemidstofabiggeopoliticalchangewhoseconsequencesforRussiaandEurasiaarelikelyto
befeltinthenextdecadeandbeyond.Thefirstquartercenturyofindependenceforthefivestatesofformerly
SovietCentralAsiawasatimeofestablishingtheirownstatehood,securingtheirsovereignty,andbuildinglinks
totheoutsideworld.Formuchofthatperiod,theWest,andespeciallytheUnitedStates,playedakeyroleasa
supporterofthefivestatesindependence,sovereignty,andintegrationintotheinternationalarena.156
WiththeUnitedStatesandEuropelargelyout,Russian
influencedown,andChinaascendantinCentralAsia,the
regionisallbutcertaintoshiftitsgeopoliticalorientationfrom
theWesttotheEast.
DuringthepostColdWarperiodoftheWestsdominance,thenewstatesintegrationintotheinternational
arenawastoaverylargeextentequatedwithbuildingtiestoWesternstructurestheOrganizationforSecurity
andCooperationinEurope,theWorldBank,andtheIMF,aswellasNATOandtheEU.Moreover,thanksto
theU.S.-ledcampaigninAfghanistan,theWestservedasamajorsecurityprovidertoCentralAsiafornearlya
decadeandahalfaftertheSeptember11,2001,terroristattacks.Insum,forthefirstquartercenturyofCentral
Asiasindependence,theWestplayedakeyroleinensuringtheregionssecurity.EvenRussia,asaEuropean
power,albeitnotcontenttoseetheUnitedStatesanditsNATOalliesinvolvedinitsjealouslyguarded
backyard,ineffectservedasaconnectiontoEuropeforCentralAsia.
minimizeitsrolethere,whilemanyU.S.allieshavepulledtheirforcesoutofAfghanistanaltogether.TheWests
roleasasecurityproviderforCentralAsiaisending.
Tradeandinvestmentflows,too,aredrivingCentralAsiatowardadifferentgravitationalpolefromtheWest
China.ChinastradewithCentralAsiahasincreasedmorethanahundredfoldinthepastquartercenturyand
passedthe$50billionmarkin2013.Chineseinvestmentinpipelines,roads,andenergyexplorationismeasured
inthetensofbillionsofdollarsandisprojectedtogrowfurther,asChinaplansambitiousnewprojectsforthe
regioninthenextdecade.RussiahasbeenlosingtheeconomiccompetitionwithChinainCentralAsia,whilethe
UnitedStatesandEuropebarelyregisterastradepartners.157
WiththeUnitedStatesandEuropelargelyout,Russianinfluencedown,andChinaascendantinCentralAsia,the
regionisallbutcertainfortheforeseeablefuturetoshiftitsgeopoliticalorientationfromtheWest,towhichitwas
leaningduringthefirstquartercenturyofitsindependence,totheEast.Thisisboundtohavefar-reaching
consequencesforallinvolved.
providingsecurityfortheregion.AgreaterburdeninthisrespectwillfallontheCentralAsiastatesthemselves,
aswellasontheirimmediateneighbors,especiallyRussiaandChina.ThisraisesthequestionofRussiasability
toactastheregionssecuritymanagerforCentralAsiainlightofMoscowslimitedcapabilitiesandchallenges
elsewhere,andofChinaswilltoengageintheregioninaroleithasbeenreluctanttoassume.Theresultofthis
changewillbegreateruncertaintyandpotentiallygreaterinstabilityfacingRussianplannersastheycontemplate
thefutureoftheregionthattheyhavelongviewedasamajorvulnerabilityontheirperiphery.Itseemsnothingis
stableandsecureonRussiasthresholdanywhere,initsfrontyardoritsbackyard.
Conclusion
AttheendofthefirstquartercenturyafterthebreakupoftheSovietUnion,Russiaisathreattoitsneighbors
andfeelsdeeplythreatenedbythem.Itssenseofvulnerabilityandinferiorityvis--vistheWestislong-standing
anddeep,anditissurroundedbyavast,diverse,andturbulentregionwithamultitudeofpotentialcrisesthat
holdoutthepossibilityofescalatingintolargerconflicts.ThisunstablesituationinEuropesEastandEurasiaisa
productoftheinterplayoverthepasttwenty-fiveyearsofmultiplefactors,bothindigenoustotheirhomeregions
andresultingfromactionsofoutsidepowersandexternaldevelopments.
ChiefamongthesefactorsisRussiasownevolutionfromaquietlydissenting,grumbling,butnonethelesslargely
passivebystanderindevelopmentofthepostColdWarEuro-Atlanticsecurityarchitectureintoitsactive
opponentandastatecapableofprojectingpowerarounditsperipheryandassertingitselfbeyonditsimmediate
neighborhoodindefenseofitsinterests.Aseriesofeventsthe2008Russian-GeorgianWar,the2014
annexationofCrimeaandthewarineasternUkraine,theemergenceofsecuritythreatstotheBaltics,the
economicstormsbuffetingRussiasneighborsfromMoldovatoTajikistanillustrateshowmuchswayRussia
continuestoholdoverthesecurityandwell-beingofthepost-Sovietstates,nomatterhowmuchtheyhavetried
toleavethatlabelbehindandbreakoutoftheRussiansphereofinfluence.
Russia,inotherwords,remainstheessentialsecuritypillarinEasternEuropeandEurasia.Astable,prosperous,
secure,andfriendlyRussiaisfarmorelikelytobeasourceofthesametoitsneighborsthanthealternativean
insecure,unstable,andstrugglingRussia,whichhascastalonganddarkshadowoverthem.
UnfortunatelyforRussiasneighborsandfortheirfriends,allies,andpartners,theprospectofastable,
prosperous,secure,andfriendlyRussiaisremote.Theoutlookforthecountryfortheforeseeablefutureisbleak
absentmajorreforms,whereassuchreformsappearunlikely.
NowhereisthesenseofpessimismaboutRussiasprospectsmoreacutethaninsideRussiaitself.Itpermeates
Russianassessmentsofthecountryseconomicconditionandprospects,itspoliticalstability,anditsmilitaryin
relationtothethreatsandchallengestoitssecurity.Foremostamongthesesecuritythreats,intheviewofRussian
defenseexperts,isNATO,followedcloselybyfragilestatesaroundRussiasperiphery.
includingRussia,isseenbyitssecurityestablishmentastheprincipalchallengetoitssecurityandstability,
intendedtoexploititsmanyvulnerabilities.ThisassessmentofWesternmotivesandactionsresultingfromthem
hasenduredwithremarkableconsistencyintheRussiannationalsecuritynarrativesincetheearliestdaysofthe
post-SovietRussianstatetothepresent.ItisthedominantviewinMoscowsnationalsecurityestablishmentwith
nodissentingvoicesofanyconsequence.
economically,militarilyvis--vistheWest.ThecombinationofRussiasinsecurityanditsperceptionofthe
WestshostilitytoithasbeentheprincipaldriverofRussiansecuritypolicy.TherejectionofexpansionbyNATO
andtheEUintocountriesapparentlygenuinelyviewedbyRussianpolicymakersaswithintheirsphereof
privilegedinterests,coupledwiththefearoftheWesternsecurityandpoliticalorderapproachingRussias
borders,wasthekeymotivatorbehindthewarwithGeorgiaandtheundeclaredwaragainstUkraine.This
underlyingRussianworldviewisunlikelytochangeintheforeseeablefuture.
TheemergingnewsecurityorderwithNATOrethinkingitspostColdWarpostureforthefirsttimeina
quartercenturyandrebuildingitsdeterrentcapabilitiesandwithRussiabuildingupitsmilitarycapabilitiesalong
itswesternborderisunstableandunpredictable.BothRussiaandtheWestfeelinsecureandcompelledtodo
more,raisingtherisksofanescalatorydynamicinthenameofdefenseanddeterrence.
NothingjustifiesRussiasundeclaredwaragainstUkraine,whichviolatedmultipleRussianinternational
commitmentsandhastriggeredtheworstpoliticalandsecuritycrisisinEuropeinageneration.However,in
devisingtheirresponsetoRussianactions,Westernpolicymakersshouldbeclearaboutthedriversand
motivationsofRussianactionstheinsecurityandperceptionofvulnerabilityasregardstheWest,ingrainedin
Russiasnationalsecurityestablishmentforageneration.Westernpolicymakersshouldalsobeclearthat
MoscowhasneveracceptedtheargumentthattheexpansionofWesterninstitutionswasmeantasamove
towarditratherthanagainstit.
WesterndiscussionsaboutthenewlydiscoveredvulnerabilityofNATOalliesthatborderRussia,especiallythe
Balticstates,mustnotoverlookthefactthattheBalticstatesmembershipinNATOhasmeanttoRussian
militaryplannersthatNATO,stillseenasahostilealliance,isnowonly100milesfromSaintPetersburg,andthat
thecurrentbuildupofNATOcapabilitiesintheBalticstatesisoccurringlessthanatwo-hourdrivefromRussias
secondmostimportantcity.Westernpolicymakersshouldhavenoillusionsthatthebuildupofdefenseand
deterrentcapabilitiesinthefrontlinestateswillhaveastabilizingeffectonthestandoffbetweenNATOand
Russia.ThebuildupofRussiananti-accessandarea-denial(A2/AD)capabilitiesinCrimeaandKaliningradand
threatstodeploynuclearweaponstherearestrongindicatorsthattensionswillincreaseratherthansubsidein
theseregions.158
Inthiscontext,themostdisturbingaspectofthisrenewedadversarialrelationshipisthereturnofthespecterof
nuclearwartotheEuropeancontinent.Russiaslong-standingperceivedinferiorityvis--visNATOs
conventionalcapabilitiesandtheirproximitytotheRussianheartlandhavegivenrisetoamilitarystrategythat
assignsacriticalroletolimitednuclearstrikesearlyinaconflictasameansofthwartingNATOsconventional
dominanceandendingtheconflictbeforeitresultsindevastatinglossestotheheartland.Defenseofthe
homelandhastakenonenhancedprioritybecauseafterthelossoftheouterandinnerempiresandtheexpansion
ofNATO,ithasbecometheforwardareainanyfutureconflictbetweenRussiaandNATO.
writingsaboutearlynuclearuseshouldnotbetreatedasareliableindicatoroffutureRussianactions.
Nonetheless,theprominenceofnuclearweaponsinRussianstrategicthoughtisindicativeofthecountrys
perceivedvulnerabilitiesandintensityoftheadversarialrelationshipwiththeWest.
FortheUnitedStatesanditsallies,thisposesadauntingchallengehowtorespondtoRussianactionsina
mannerthatensuresacredible,robustdeterrentposturethatisstabilizinganddoesnotfeedRussiasworst
perceptionsofitsownvulnerabilities.Relianceonnucleardeterrenceinthiscontextcouldproveescalatoryand
reinforceRussianmilitaryplannersnuclearleanings,whilerelianceonconventionalmeanswouldunderscore
Russiasperceivedvulnerabilities.
NowherewilltheadversarialrelationshipbetweenRussiaand
theWestplayoutwithgreaterintensitythaninEastern
Europe.
NowherewilltheadversarialrelationshipbetweenRussiaandtheWestplayoutwithgreaterintensitythanin
EasternEuropethestatesoftheformerSovietUnionthathavenotjoinedtheEuro-Atlanticpolitical,
economic,andsecurityinstitutionsandareunwillingtojointheRussian-dominatedcounterpartEurasian
structures.Armenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia,Moldova,andUkrainehavebecomethebattlegroundstates,
toonedegreeoranotherpulledindifferentdirectionsinthegeopoliticaltug-of-warbetweenRussiaandthe
West.
Much,ifnotmost,oftheattentionfollowingRussiasaggressionagainstUkrainehasbeenfocusedontheBaltic
statesastheNATOalliesmostexposedandvulnerabletoRussianattack.Balticdefenseisundoubtedlyamajor
challengeforthealliance.However,Russianactionsbefore,during,andsincetheaggressionagainstUkraine
suggestthatMoscowstilltakesNATOsArticle5securityguaranteeofitsmembersseriouslyandthatitisnot
preparedtotestthatguaranteedirectly.Rather,itsactionsinformationandcyberoperations,airspace
violations,nuclearsaberrattling,andthelikeappearaimedatcreatinganairofuncertaintyaboutthat
guaranteeandunderminingmemberstatesconfidenceinit.Russianleadershavedemonstratedtwicebytheir
actionsinGeorgiain2008andinUkrainesince2014thattheytakethatguaranteeseriously.Russianleaders
wenttowartwicetopreventthetwocountriesfrommovingclosertotheWestandeventuallyastheysawit
joiningNATO.
TheexperiencesofUkraineandGeorgiahaveprofoundimplicationsforthesixbattlegroundstates.Lacking
NATOssecurityguarantee,theyremaininwhatMoscowperceivesasitssphereofprivilegedinterests.Itis
preparedtouseallavailablemeans,includingmilitaryforce,tokeeptheminthatsphere.AslongastheWestis
notpreparedtoconsignthesestatestotheRussiansphere,theybecomethearenaforEast-Westcompetition.
cooperatewithRussia,oratleastseekitsconsenttopursuetheirinterestsinEurasia.Besidestheobvious
examplesofSyria,Afghanistan,ornucleartalkswithIran,inallofwhichRussiahasplayedanimportantpart,
futureexamplesofsuchsituationsmayinvolvecontingenciesinEasternEurope,theSouthCaucasus,orCentral
Asia.Inallofthoselocations,whetherforreasonsofgeography,politics,oreconomics,theUnitedStatesandits
allieswillneedtogetRussiaonboardtobeabletorespondtonaturaldisasters,humanitariancrises,regional
conflicts,orotherunforeseenevents.
AbsentmajorchangesinoutlookonthepartofeitherRussia
orNATO,thisadversarialrelationshipwillremainthekey
featureoftheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderfortheforeseeable
future.
Moreover,evenintimeswhencircumstancesforceRussiaandtheWesttocooperate,Russiaislikelytosustain
itsotherdestabilizingbehaviors.Theuseofmeasuresshortofwareconomicleversinstatesthatarevulnerable,
suchasBulgaria,Cyprus,orGreeceandbribery,blackmail,infiltrationofintelligenceoperatives,andan
assortmentofothertacticswillbepartofthetoolkitdeployedbyRussianpolicymakersintimesofcrisis,aswell
asinpeacetimeaspartofthenormalcontinuationofwarfarebyothermeans.
Russiasrelianceontheseformsofcompetitionshortofoutrightwarfareisfullyjustifiedintheeyesofthe
countryssecurityestablishmentasasymmetricmeanswarrantedbytheperceivedRussia-NATOimbalance.
RussianrelianceonthemandtheintensityofitsoppositiontotheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderareunlikelyto
diminishifitseconomicprospectsordomesticstabilityerode.Onthecontrary,suchreliancemaybecomeeven
greaterasotherinstrumentsinitstoolkitbecomescarcer.
AsseenfromRussia,theenvironmentinEuropeandEurasiahasleftMoscowwithoutreliablepartners,letalone
allies.NATOsexpansionhaspositionedthealliance,viewedbyRussianelitesasadversarial,onthecountrys
doorstep,farcloserthanithaseverbeen.TheothersideofthiscoinisthatRussiaisonNATOsdoorstepasit
hasneverbeenbefore.Theresultisastateofprofoundmutualinsecurity.Absentmajorchangesinoutlookon
thepartofeitherRussiaorNATO,thisadversarialrelationshipwillremainthekeyfeatureoftheEuro-Atlantic
securityorderfortheforeseeablefuture.Eventually,itwilltakeapolitical,notamilitary,solutiontoaddressthese
tensions.
Notes
2DmitriTrenin,TheCrisisinCrimeaCouldLeadtheWorldIntoaSecondColdWar,Guardian,March2,
2014,http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/02/crimea-crisis-russia-ukraine-cold-war.
3ThisissueisdiscussedindetailinRajanMenonandEugeneRumer,ConflictinUkraine:TheUnwinding
ofthePostColdWarOrder(Cambridge,MA:MITPress,2015).
7,:,
8Ibid.
9YevgeniyAmbartsumov,InteresyRossiiNeZnayutGranits[Russianinterestsknownoborders],
Megapolis-Express,May6,1992.
10AleksandrVladislavlevandSergeyKaraganov,TyazhkiyKrestRossii[Russiasheavycross],
NezavisimayaGazeta,November11,1992.
13RogerCohen,YeltsinOpposesExpansionofNATOinEasternEurope,NewYorkTimes,October2,
1993,http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/02/world/yeltsin-opposes-expansion-of-nato-in-eastern-europe.html.
14Ibid.
15JamestownFoundation,ChubaisDemandsCompensationforNATOEnlargement,Monitor3,no.84
(April1997).
17DouglasJ.Gillert,AfterJumping,BattalionLearnstoCrawl,DoDNews,U.S.DepartmentofDefense,
October1,1997.
20:,
,,172015,http://glavred.info/mir/zhurnalist-rf-o-motivacii-putina-pomnit-sudby-
miloshevicha-kaddafi-i-dedushki-pinocheta-323242.html.
21CelesteA.Wallander,RussianNationalSecurityPolicyin2000(PONARS[ProgramonNewApproaches
toRussianSecurity]PolicyMemo102,DavisCenterforRussianStudies,HarvardUniversity,2000)Nikolai
Sokov,TheViewsoftheMilitaryLeadership,inModernizationofStrategicNuclearWeaponsinRussia:The
EmergingNewPosture(PONARSWorkingPaperNo.6,DavisCenterforRussianStudies,Harvard
University,May1998).
23PutinsPreparedRemarksat43rdMunichConferenceonSecurityPolicy,WashingtonPost,February12,
2007,http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/12/AR2007021200555.html.
24UweKlumann,MatthiasSchepp,andKlausWiegrefe,NATOsEastwardExpansion:DidtheWestBreak
ItsPromisetoMoscow?,SpiegelOnline,November26,2009,
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-s-eastward-expansion-did-the-west-break-its-promise-to-
moscow-a-663315.html.
25MaryEliseSarotte,ABrokenPromise?WhattheWestReallyToldMoscowAboutNATOExpansion,
ForeignAffairs,September/October2014,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2014-08-
11/broken-promise.
26SergeyLavrov,Democracy,InternationalGovernance,andtheFutureWorldOrder,RussiainGlobal
Affairs,no.1(February9,2005):http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/n_4422.
27CheneyChidesRussiaonDemocracy,BBC,May4,2006,
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4972464.stm.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/05/world/europe/05nato.htmlTextofPutinsSpeechatNATOSummit
(Bucharest,April2,2008),UnianInformationAgency,April18,2008,http://www.unian.info/world/111033-
text-of-putins-speech-at-nato-summit-bucharest-april-2-2008.html.
34DavidM.HerszenhornandEllenBarry,LargeAnti-PutinProtestSignalsGrowingResolve,NewYork
Times,June12,2012,http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/world/europe/anti-putin-demonstrators-gather-in-
moscow.htmlHundredsDetainedAfterMoscowAnti-PutinProtest,Guardian,March5,2012,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2012/mar/05/russian-election-reaction-putin-liveRussianPresident
DmitryMedvedevAdmitsPoliticalReformNecessary,Telegraph,December22,2011,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8972807/Russian-President-Dmitry-Medvedev-
admits-political-reform-necessary.html.
35Russia,SovietStyle,NewYorkTimes,June12,2012,
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/opinion/russia-soviet-style.html.
36KarounDemirjian,MeanwhileinRussia,PutinPassesLawAgainstProtests,WashingtonPost,July22,
2014,http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/07/22/meanwhile-in-russia-putin-passes-
law-against-protests/MiriamElder,RussiansFearCrackdownasHundredsAreArrestedAfterAnti-Putin
Protest,Guardian,March6,2012,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/mar/06/russians-crackdown-anti-
putin-protestKathyLallyandKarenDeYoung,PutinAccusesClinton,U.S.ofFomentingElectionProtests,
WashingtonPost,December8,2011,http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/putin-accuses-clinton-us-
of-stirring-election-protests/2011/12/08/gIQA0MUDfO_story.html.
38VladimirPutin,ANewIntegrationProjectforEurasia:TheFutureintheMaking,Izvestia,October3,
2011,asreprintedbythePermanentMissionoftheRussianFederationtotheEuropeanUnion,
http://www.russianmission.eu/en/news/article-prime-minister-vladimir-putin-new-integration-project-eurasia-
future-making-izvestia-3-.
39Ibid.
41OleksandrSushko,AForkintheRoad?UkraineBetweenEUAssociationandtheEurasianCustoms
Union(PONARSEurasiaPolicyMemoNo.293,September2013)tefanFle,StatementonthePressure
ExercisedbyRussiaonCountriesoftheEasternPartnership,pressrelease,EuropeanCommission,September
11,2013.
InternationalPeace,July30,2014,http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/07/30/saving-ukraine-s-defense-
industry.
4316%ofNaturalGasConsumedinEuropeFlowsThroughUkraine,U.S.EnergyInformation
Administration,March14,2014,http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=15411.
44JudyDempsey,U.S.SenatorUrgesUseofNATODefenseClauseforEnergy,InternationalHerald
Tribune,November28,2006,http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/28/world/europe/28iht-nato.3702073.html.
46DanLamothe,RussiaIsGreatestThreattotheU.S.,SaysJointChiefsChairmanNomineeGen.Joseph
Dunford,WashingtonPost,July9,2015,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/07/09/russia-is-greatest-threat-to-the-u-s-says-
joint-chiefs-chairman-nominee-gen-joseph-dunford/.
Journal,May1,2016,http://www.wsj.com/articles/natos-breedlove-calls-for-sharper-focus-on-russia-ahead-
of-departure-1462115561TheodoreSchleiferandJimSciutto,TopArmyLeader:RussiaIsMost
DangerousThreatFacingU.S.,CNN,August12,2015,http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/russia-
army-leader-dangerous-odierno/.
49,,,,,15
2016,http://www.ng.ru/courier/2016-02-15/9_friends.html.
50,,11
2015,http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50913.
51,,31
52,:
,,102015,http://www.ng.ru/news/519934.html?
print=Y.
54,,,23
2014,http://rg.ru/2014/04/23/karaganov-site.html.
Estratgicos,December31,2015,
http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/OtrasPublicaciones/Internacional/2016/Russian-National-Security-Strategy-
31Dec2015.pdf.
56Transcript:InterviewWithSergeiIvanov,FinancialTimes,June21,2015,
http://next.ft.com/content/b81bbd70-17f0-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996.
57,,,222015,
http://m.rg.ru/2015/12/22/patrushev-site.html.
58,:,
59,,.,29,2015,
.
60,.
61,.
62,:.
63,:,,15
64,2023-:,
,212015,http://www.rbc.ru/opinions/economics/21/12/2015/567799949a79478889fd54ee
,http://svop.ru.
653.,,302015,
66,:,
,,252015,http://vpk-news.ru/articles/28148.
67:,,
222016,http://tass.ru/ekonomika/3303885,,,
68,,,182015,http://vpk-
69Ibid.
70NATOCondemnsPutinsNuclearSabre-Rattling,BBC,June16,2015,
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-33153703AdamWithnall,RussiaThreatensDenmarkWithNuclear
WeaponsifItTriestoJoinNATODefenceShield,Independent,March22,2015.
71DavidLermanandTerryAtlas,RussiasSaber-RattlingThreatensStability,U.S.Says,Bloomberg,June
25,2015,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-threatens-denmark-with-nuclear-weapons-
if-it-tries-to-join-nato-defence-shield-10125529.html.
72,,,
73MaryC.Fitzgerald,MarshalOgarkovonModernWar:19771985,ProfessionalPaper443.10,Center
forNavalAnalyses,revisedNovember1986.
76,,-,252015,
http://vpk-news.ru/articles/24405.
WashingtonPost,October24,2015,http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-1983-war-
scare-soviet-leadership-feared-nuclear-surprise-attack-by-us/2015/10/24/15a289b4-7904-11e5-a958-
78Forathoroughdiscussionofthis,seePavelPodvig,DidStarWarsHelpEndtheColdWar?Soviet
ResponsetotheSDIProgram(workingpaper,RussianNuclearForcesProject,March17,2013).
79:,
,182015,http://ria.ru/interview/20150218/1048334517.html.
80Ibid.
81,,-,13
82,,
,282012,http://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2012-09-
28/11_satan.html.
83,-,282013,http://vpk-
news.ru/news/16557.
84Ibid,,.,18
2004,http://polit.ru/article/2004/11/18/slipch/,
,,2013,http://www.intertrends.ru/thirty-
second/Volodin.pdf...
,Viperson.ru,302012,http://viperson.ru/wind.php?ID=652675.
85,
,:
,-,,,20
2020.,http://www.armscontrol.ru/pubs/em092012.htm.
86,,,-
,132014,http://www.vko.ru/geopolitika/ugrozy-bezopasnosti-rossii.
87,,,-,-
88Ibid.
89RussiaHasDeliveredOver1,000AirstrikesinSyriaSinceStartofYearGeneral,TASS,January11,
2016,http://tass.ru/en/defense/848749.
90,,,23
2014,http://www.ng.ru/armies/2014-09-23/1_rogozin.html.
91StepanKravchenko,PutinTellsDefenseChiefstoStrengthenRussianNuclearForces,Bloomberg,
December11,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-11/putin-tells-defense-chiefs-to-
strengthen-russian-nuclear-forces.
92,
,,122014,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-09-
12/1_oborona.html.
93,:4202,
,,222015,
94,-.,
,162014,http://www.ng.ru/armies/2014-12-16/3_kartblansh.html.
95,:4202,
,,222015,
96PetrTopychkanov,IsRussiaAfraidofChineseandIndianMissiles?CarnegieMoscowCenter,November
3,2014,http://carnegie.ru/2014/11/03/is-russia-afraid-of-chinese-and-indian-missiles.
97,Newsru.com,4
2015,http://www.newsru.com/russia/04jul2015/midnukes.html.
98,,,3
99,,,-
100:,
101Ibid.
102,,
103:,
105:,,13
106,,31
107AgenceFrance-Presse,VladimirPutinWarnsRussianstoAvoidGoogle:TheInternetIsaCIASpecial
Project,RawStory,April24,2014,http://www.rawstory.com/2014/04/vladimir-putin-warns-russians-to-
avoid-google-the-internet-is-a-cia-special-project/RussiaandChinaWantMoreControlOvertheInternet,
Stratfor,August14,2015,http://www.stratfor.com/sample/analysis/russia-and-china-want-more-control-over-
internet.
108,:,
,,32015,
109,,122016,
http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-02-12/2_red.htmlRussiasChiefInternetCensorEnlistsChinasKnow-How,
FinancialTimes,April27,2016.
110,.,,1
111MasterCard,VisaNowProcessRussianPaymentsThroughSanction-ProofSystem,MoscowTimes,May
28,2015,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/mastercard-visa-now-process-russian-payments-
through-sanction-proof-system/522576.html.
112TASS,RussiaMayUseChinasPaymentInfrastructureInsteadofSWIFTVTBBankHead,Russia
BeyondtheHeadlines,March11,2015,
113RussiaBrainstormsStrategytoReplaceBannedWesternDefenseImports,MoscowTimes,August14,
2014,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-brainstorms-strategy-to-replace-banned-
western-defense-imports/505133.html.
taxman/491910.html.
116RobinNiblett,NATOMustFocusontheHybridWarsBeingWagedontheWest,FinancialTimes,July
17,2014,http://next.ft.com/content/3192c7a0-0cd2-11e4-bf1e-00144feabdc0JohnVandiver,SACEUR:
AlliesMustPrepareforRussiaHybridWar,StarsandStripes,September4,2014,
http://www.stripes.com/news/saceur-allies-must-prepare-for-russia-hybrid-war-1.301464.
118,(:,2015),
%D0%A1.%D0%90.,
%D0%93%D0%B8%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8F
%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D0%B0
%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B2
%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8.pdf,
,-,182016,
119,,,142014,http://topwar.ru/56079-
(II),,132015,
http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2015-03-13/1_gybrid2.html,:
,,222016,
http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-10-10/1_nato.html.
120,:,
121,,,302015,
http://topwar.ru/75928-mif-o-gibridnoy-voyne.html.
122Ibid.
123ShaunWalker,AlexisTsiprasinMoscowAsksEuropetoEndSanctionsAgainstRussia,Guardian,April
8,2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/08/alexis-tsipras-in-moscow-asks-europe-to-end-
sanctions-against-russiaGeorgiGotev,BulgarianParliamentAlmostRejectedtheEUSanctionsAgainst
Russia,EurActiv,October8,2015,http://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/bulgarian-
parliament-almost-rejected-the-eu-sanctions-against-russia/.
http://www.politico.eu/article/le-pen-russia-crimea-putin-money-bank-national-front-seeks-russian-cash-for-
election-fight/.
125MelanieAmannetal.,TheHybridWar:RussiasPropagandaCampaignAgainstGermany,Spiegel
Online,January30,2016,http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/putin-wages-hybrid-war-on-germany-
and-west-a-1075483.htmlTheCzechsandRussia:SpyVersusPolitician,Economist,October29,2014,
126,,,231995,
-9785d26186b2#.byb71wmzt.
127DmitryZhdannikovandGuyFaulconbridge,KhodorkovskySaysPutinIsLeadingRussiaToward
Stagnation,Collapse,Reuters,November27,2015,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-khodorkovsky-
west-idUSKBN0TF23920151126.
meaningfulbreakwithPutinism.ThisanalysisalsoassumesthatPutinremainshealthyandthattherewillbeno
coupagainsthimfortheremainderofhiscurrentterm.
http://www.minchenko.ru/netcat_files/File/Politburo_2014_ENG1_pre_final1.pdfRussia:TheStrugglesWithin
PartI,Stratfor,January9,2008,http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russia-struggles-within-part-i.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/23/world/europe/russians-anxiety-swells-as-oil-prices-collapse.htmlTom
Balmforth,SacredGround:MuscovitesProtestChurchConstructioninPark,RadioFreeEurope/Free
Liberty,June26,2015,http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-moscow-church-protest-torfyanka-
park/27095836.htmlAlexeyMalashenko,DivisionsandDefianceAmongRussiasMuslims,Carnegie
MoscowCenter,November20,2015,http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2015/11/20/divisions-and-defiance-
among-russia-s-muslims/im56MiriamElder,MoscowRiotsExposeRacismattheHeartofRussianFootball,
Guardian,December18,2010,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/19/spartak-moscow-race-riots-
ultranationalistAlexeyMalashenkoandAlexeyStarostin,TheRiseofNontraditionalIslamintheUrals,
CarnegieMoscowCenter,September30,2015,http://carnegie.ru/2015/09/30/rise-of-nontraditional-islam-in-
urals/iie6.
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2013-04-25/putin-s-medieval-peace-pact-in-chechnyaMichael
Schwirtz,RussianAngerGrowsOverChechnyaSubsidies,NewYorkTimes,October8,2011,
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/world/europe/chechnyas-costs-stir-anger-as-russia-approaches-
elections.htmlEx-MinisterSaysRussiaWillCutDefenseBudgetin23Years,TASS,January13,2016,
http://www.rt.com/business/328915-russia-social-spending-2016/MoscowProtestersRallyAgainstBudget
CutsinScience,Education,RT,June6,2015,http://www.rt.com/news/265495-moscow-protest-science-
education/EugeneVorotnikov,GovernmentPlanstoCut10%OffUniversityFunding,UniversityWorld
News,February20,2015,http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20150220085025625.
132MikhailKrutikhin,GrabandShare:NewTaxProposalsforRussiasOilIndustry,CarnegieMoscow
Center,October15,2015,http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=61623,
,,242015,
,,30
2015,http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2015-12-30/1_otredaktora.html.
134NATOLeaderSaysRussiaBuildingArcofSteelinEurope,U.S.DepartmentofDefense,October6,
2015,http://www.defense.gov/News-Article-View/Article/622080/nato-leader-says-russia-building-arc-of-
steel-in-europeNaftaliBendavid,NATORampsUpResponsetoRussia,WallStreetJournal,June24,
2015,http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-ramps-up-response-to-russia-1435174136.
http://nato.gov.si/eng/topic/national-security/neutral-status/neutral-countries/TheEffectsofFinlandsPossible
NATOMembership,MinistryofForeignAffairsofFinland,April29,2016,
http://formin.finland.fi/public/default.aspx?contentid=345685TomasBertelman,JohanMolander,andSven-Olof
Peterson,APowerfulCaseforSwedishMembershipinNATO,NATOSource(blog),AtlanticCouncil,
August21,2015,http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/a-powerful-case-for-swedish-membership-in-
nato.
136RichardFontaineandJulianneSmith,Anti-Access/AreaDenialIsntJustforAsiaAnymore,DefenseOne,
April2,2015,http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2015/04/anti-accessarea-denial-isnt-just-asia-
anymore/109108/.
137AgenceFrance-Presse,BelarusPoll:EULiftsSanctionsonLukashenkoEuropesLastDictator,
Guardian,October12,2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/13/belarus-poll-eu-lifts-sanctions-
on-lukashenko-europes-last-dictator.
138SabraAyres,AsBelarusEconomyFalters,LukashenkoLooksWest,AlJazeeraAmerica,January3,
2016,http://america.aljazeera.com/multimedia/2016/1/as-belarus-economy-falters-lukashenko-looks-west.html.
139AnasMarin,TradingOffSovereignty.TheOutcomeofBelarussIntegrationWithRussiaintheSecurity
andDefenceField,OrodekStudiwWschodnich,April29,2013,
http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-commentary/2013-04-29/trading-sovereignty-outcome-belaruss-
integration-russiaChrisBiggers,RussianAirbaseinBelarusRemainsinLimbo,Bellingcat,December27,
2015,http://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-europe/2015/12/27/russian-airbase-belarus-remains-limbo/.
140YurasKarmanau(AssociatedPress),BelarusPresidentSaysHeDoesntWantRussianAirBase,Voice
ofAmerica,October6,2015,http://www.voanews.com/content/belarus-president-says-he-does-not-want-
russian-air-base/2993864.htmlChristopherHarress,ScaredbyUkraineWar,BelarusStrongmanLukashenko
MullsDitchingRussia,InternationalBusinessTimes,January31,2015,http://www.ibtimes.com/scared-
ukraine-war-belarus-strongman-lukashenko-mulls-ditching-russia-1801070MikalaiAnishchanka,IsBelarus
andRussiasBrotherlyLoveComingtoanEnd?Guardian,May29,2015,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/28/belarus-russia-brotherly-love-ukraine-crisis.
141KitGillet,OppositionGroupsinMoldovaUnitetoProtestNewGovernment,NewYorkTimes,January
25,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/26/world/europe/oppositions-groups-in-moldova-unite-to-protest-
new-government.html.
144JeffreyMankoff,WhyRussiaandTurkeyFight:AHistoryofAntagonism,ForeignAffairs,February24,
2016,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2016-02-24/why-russia-and-turkey-fight.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/09/turkey-russia-putin-not-supports-erdogan-in-syria.html
NewsConferenceFollowingStateVisittoTurkey,OfficialInternetResourcesofthePresidentofRussia,
December1,2014,http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47126.
148Mankoff,WhyRussiaandTurkeyFightTurkeysDowningofRussianWarplaneWhatWeKnow,
BBC,December1,2015,http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34912581.
149AndreyBiryukov,PutinSaysTurkishStabinBackCausedRussianWarplaneCrash,Bloomberg,
November24,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-24/putin-says-turkish-stab-in-back-
caused-russian-warplane-crash.
150RaziyeAkkocandRolandOliphant,VladimirPutinRefusestoSpeaktoTurkishPresidentOverAnkaras
LackofApology,Telegraph,November27,2015,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/12020980/Vladimir-Putin-refuses-to-speak-to-
Turkish-president-over-Ankaras-lack-of-apology.html.
151WorstinDecades,NoWaytoImproveforNowKremlinonRussia-TurkeyRelations,RT,February9,
2016,http://www.rt.com/news/331878-russia-turkey-relations-worst/.
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Azerbaijans-Economy-In-Dire-Straits-As-Oil-Prices-
Keep-Tanking.html.
153JackFarchy,BakuSeeksAlternativesasAzerbaijanOilProductionDeclines,FinancialTimes,March
12,2015,http://next.ft.com/content/b86cb5b4-be99-11e4-8036-00144feab7deAzerbaijancountryreport,
U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=AZE.
Guardian,January15,2016,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/15/azerbaijan-forced-to-cut-bread-
taxes-after-widespread-protests.
156Formoreonthis,seeEugeneRumer,RichardSokolsky,andPaulStronski,U.S.PolicyTowardCentral
Asia3.0,CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,January25,2016.
http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/01/25/u.s.-policy-toward-central-asia-3.0/it2s.
157Ibid.
Defense,September28,2015,http://breakingdefense.com/2015/09/russians-in-syria-building-a2ad-bubble-
over-region-breedlove/StevenPifer,RussianNukesinCrimea?ABetterWaytoRespond,Brookings
Institution,February2,2015,http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/02/02-russia-nuclear-
weapons-crimea-better-us-response-piferStevenErlanger,NATORatchetsUpMissileDefenseDespite
RussianCriticism,NewYorkTimes,May5,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/world/europe/nato-
russia-poland.html.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 06/30/201603:04:35AM
To: loywil@gmail.com
Subject: FriendsWithBenefits?Russian-ChineseRelationsAftertheUkraineCrisis-CarnegieMoscowCenter-CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace
FacingsanctionsfromtheWestaftertheannexationofCrimea,RussiahasreorienteditseconomytowardChina.Inmakingthe
pivot,itsoughttobreakitsdiplomaticisolation,secureamarketforitsenergyresources,andgaingreateraccesstoChinese
creditandtechnology.Theresultsoftheshiftaremixed,butiftrendscontinue,MoscowislikelytodriftfurtherintoBeijings
embrace.Anasymmetricalinterdependenceisemerging,withglobalimplications.


TherewasasharpdeclineintradebetweenChinaandRussiain2015anddifficultiesinnegotiatingnewmegadeals.Still,
therapprochementhasacceleratedprojectsthathavebeenunderdiscussionfordecades,resultinginagreementsona
naturalgaspipelineandcross-borderinfrastructure,amongotherdeals.



RussiaandChinaarenotenteringintoananti-Westernalliance.BeijingdoesnotwanttoconfronttheWestoverissuesit
seesasalowpriority,suchasUkraine.MoscowprefersnottobedraggedintogrowingU.S.-Chinarivalryorterritorial

Still,MoscowsgrowingdependenceonChinaanditstendencytoseeconflictthroughananti-Americanlensisforcingit
tosupportBeijinginsomedisputesitwouldprefertoavoid.

Russiasmilitary-industrialcomplexisopeningupmoretotheChinesemarket.Thisshiftmayaffectthestrategicbalance
inTaiwan,theEastChinaSea,andtheSouthChinaSeaastheChinesemilitarygainsaccesstoadvancedequipment.

economicintegrationprojectshavebeenunsuccessful.YetMoscowhopesitcanserveasregionalsecurityproviderwhile
Chinapresidesovereconomicdevelopmentadeparturefromapreviouscollisioncourse.

sanctionswerementionedforthefirsttimeintheWest,theRussiangovernmentorganizedaseriesofbrainstormingsessionsto
analyzehowdifferentscenariosmighthurttheRussianeconomy.Theconclusionwasclear:RussiasAchillesheelwasitsnear-
totaldependenceonWesternmarketsforitshydrocarbonexports,capital,andtechnology.1Thehistoricalcasesofsanctions
regimespresentedbyRussiananalystsatthesediscussions,rangingfromNorthKoreatoIran,suggestedthatinorderto
withstandWesternpressureacountryneededastrongexternalpartner.2TheonlyobviouscandidatethatfitthebillwasChina
thelargesteconomythatdidnotplantoimposesanctionsonRussia.
Thiswasthecontextinwhich,inMay2014,theRussianleadershipembarkedonanewandmoreambitiouspivottoChina.
ThestrategicgoalwasnotonlytodeepenthepoliticalrelationshipbutalsotoreorienttheRussianeconomytowardtheEast.It
washopedthatChinawouldbecomeamajorbuyerofSiberianhydrocarbons,ShanghaiandHongKongwouldbecomethe
newLondonandNewYorkforRussiancompaniesseekingcapital,andChineseinvestorswouldflocktobuyRussianassets,
Foritspart,ChinaneithersupportedRussiasactionsinUkrainenordirectlycriticizedthem.ButitwelcomedMoscowspolicy
ofgoingEast.TherupturebetweenRussiaandtheWestoverUkrainewasseenassomethingthatwouldhelpChinatosecurea
RussiamoreaccommodatingtoBeijingscommercialdemandsandmorewillingtogiveuponambitionsofdeepintegrationwith
theWestanightmarescenarioforChinesestrategists.
Withsomeexceptions,4thisnewapparentrapprochementwasgreetedwithconsiderableskepticismintheWest.5Thedominant
viewinWesterncapitalswasthatrelationsbetweenMoscowandBeijingwouldalwaysremainanaxisofconvenience.6
RelationswiththeWestandwiththeUnitedStatesinparticular,itwasargued,aremoreimportantforChinathanitstiesto
Russia,giventhatU.S.-ChinesetradevolumesweresixtimesgreaterthanRussian-Chinesetradeflowsin2014andtentimes
greaterin2015.Moreimportantly,Westernanalystspredictedthatdeepmistrustbetweenthecountrieselites,historical
territorialdisputes,anunbalancedstructureoftrade,theChineseeconomicanddemographicthreattoSiberiaandtheFarEast,
competitionforinfluenceinCentralAsia,andtheoverallgrowinginequalitybetweenthetwocountrieswouldprecludeany
meaningfulpartnership.
isnotgoingtodoMoscowanyfavours,arguedaMay2015editorialintheFinancialTimes.7ThomasS.EderandMikko
WhatonefindstimeandagainwithSinoRussiancooperationareloftyannouncementsthatfailtocorrespondwiththe
realityofalessthanrobustrelationship.Asaresult,thecurrentstateofSinoRussianrelationsdo[sic]littletoprovide
MoscowwithanygeopoliticalleverageagainstEurope.Infact,itistheotherwayaround.Europehasbeenmore
successfulatplayingthediversificationgame,aswellasattractinginvestmentsandincreasingtradewithChina.8
infrastructureandnatural-resourceprojects.Third,theKremlinreassesseditsrelationshipwithChinainCentralAsia,whichhad
hithertobeendefinedaslargelycompetitivewithverylimitedopportunitiesforcollaboration.
roleofajuniorpartnerinanincreasinglyasymmetricalrelationship.MoscowmayendupprovidingcrucialresourcesthatBeijing
needs(suchasmilitarytechnology,naturalresources,andaccesstonewmarkets)toboostthelattersambitiontobethenext
globalsuperpowerinexchangeforaneconomicandfinanciallifeline.
BorisYeltsinsrelationshipwithhisChinesecounterpart,JiangZemin,wasgood.TheyspokeinRussian,whichfacilitateddirect
conversation,buttheRussianpresidentnevercalledhisChinesecolleaguefriend,asheaddressedformerU.S.presidentBill
ClintonandformerJapaneseprimeministerRyutaroHashimoto.PutinsexperiencewithJiangwasfruitfulbutbrief.Both
leadersmanagedtosignthe2001FriendshipTreaty,whichpavedthewayforthesettlementofRussian-Chineseborder
disputes.JiangssuccessorHuJintaowastenyearsolderthanPutinandunemotional.VariousinterlocutorsdescribeHuas
wearingthesameinscrutablefaceinallsituations.
Xihasbeenverydifferentfrombothhispredecessors.JustsixmonthsyoungerthanPutin,XicouldbedescribedastheRussian
presidentssoulmateastrongleaderwithavisionofhiscountrybecomingagreatpoweragain.XisremarksinMexicoin
2009aboutsomeforeignerswithfullbelliesandnothingbettertodo[than]engageinfinger-pointingatusdidnotgo
unnoticedinMoscow.9ExtendedprofilesofhimbearalotofsimilaritiestowhatispubliclyknownaboutPutin.10Thetwomen
havedevelopeddeeppersonaltiesdespitethelanguagebarrier,accordingtothosewhohaveobservedtherelationshipup
close.
ThefirstpersonalmeetingbetweenthetwotookplaceinMarch2010inMoscow,whenPutinwasprimeministerandXiwas
vicepresidentofthePeoplesRepublicofChina(PRC).11ButitwasonOctober7,2013,thattherelationshipbecametruly
personal.ThetwoleadersmetonthesidelinesoftheAsia-PacificEconomicCooperation(APEC)summitinBaliitwas
Putinsbirthdayandthelastmeetingofthedayforbothleaders.Negotiationsturnedintoaprivatebirthdaypartywithveryfew
peoplepresentandmanycelebratorytoasts,whichhelpedcementthebondbetweenthem.GiventheimportancePutinattaches
topersonaldiplomacy,thisnewlevelofcontactwiththeChineseleaderwasanimportantfactorbehindMoscowschanged
approach.
EconomicForuminFebruary2015,DeputyPrimeMinisterArkadyDvorkovichannouncedthatChinesecompanieswould
nowbewelcometobuyassetsinthenatural-resourcesector.Theyalsowerepermittedtobidoninfrastructurecontractsin
Russianlobbies.ChinesefinancialinstitutionswereinformallyencouragedtoexpandtheirpresenceintheRussianmarkettofilla
gapvacatedbyWesternfirms.High-levelRussianofficialsdeliveredthesemessagesthroughaseriesofunannouncedvisitsto
Asianfinancialcapitals,whiletheywereexploringopportunitiesforRussiandebtandequitylistings.12
channelsofcorrespondencewithChineseelitesandpoliticalleadersformanyyears,Russiaslinkshadremainedprimitive.Now
inadditiontotheexistingintergovernmentalcommissionforpreparingprimeministersmeetings(co-chairedbyRussianDeputy
PrimeMinisterDmitriRogozinandChineseVicePremierWangYang)andanalready-establishedstrategicdialogueonenergy
issues(co-chairedbyDeputyPrimeMinisterDvorkovichandChinashighest-rankingvicepremier,ZhangGaoli),anew
intergovernmentalcommissionwasformed.Thenewcommissionisco-chairedbyRussianFirstDeputyPrimeMinisterIgor
Shuvalov,Putinspowerfulpointmanforeconomictroubleshooting,andZhang,whoisalsooneofsevenmembersofthe
capablebureaucratandapersonalfriendwithdirectaccesstotheRussianleaderhimself,Putinhasmovedthebilateralbusiness
agendatoanewlevel.
closertogetherthanbefore.Anation-buildingnarrativecenteredonprideandtherevivalofthegloriouspasthasbeenstrongin
Chinasinceapatrioticeducationcampaignwaslaunchedinthe1990s.16ThisnationalstorybecamedominantinChinaafterXi
accededtopowerandpromotedhisambiguousChinaDreamconcept.Asimilarnarrativebecameincreasinglyimportantinthe
Russiancontext,particularlyafterthetakeoverofCrimea.17
thevictoryinwhatitcallstheGreatPatrioticWarformsthemoralfoundationofmanyRussiansidentity.FortheCCP,
memoriesofthewaragainstJapan,itsenormoushumancost,andtheroleoftheCommunistsinthenationalresistancestillform
oneofthepillarsofthepartyslegitimacy.AttemptstoquestionordownplaytheroleofeithercountryduringWorldWarIIare
viewedinMoscowandBeijingasattacksontheirprestigeandonthecoreideologicalfoundationsoftheregimes.18Butthis
patriotismismorethanjustcold-bloodedcalculation:ithasdeeprootsinthegenuinepersonalemotionsoftheleaders.Afterall,
Xisfather,XiZhongxun(19132002),tookpartinthewaragainstJapan,andPutinsfather,VladimirSpiridonovichPutin
(19111999),foughtinthewaragainstGermany.
growingChineseassertivenessintheSouthChinaSeawasperceivedinMoscowandBeijingasacoordinatedplottodeny
bothcountriestheirrightfulplaceinhistory.
only15percentseeingitinanegativelight(seefigure1).Thisisastarkcontrastnotonlytothefiguresoftwodecadesago(48
percentpositiveand21percentnegative,respectively,inMarch1995)butalsotothefiguresfromjustayearbeforethe
conventionalwisdomthataverageRussiansharbornegativefeelingstowardChina,20butempiricalevidencethatsupportssuch
assertionsishardtocomeby.Russianeliteslong-standingcautiousattitudestowardChinaareaseparatematter,butthismind-
sethasundergonesignificantchangesasadirectresultoftheUkrainecrisis.
thecrisis,Russiaseastwarddrift,andthedramaticchangesintheglobalstrategicenvironmentcreatedbythesedevelopments
unfoldedquickly,astheChineseleadershipwatchedthesuddendepartureofUkrainesthenpresidentViktorYanukovych,and
thenPutinsboldstepofannexingCrimeaoutright.Theseevents,accordingtoChineseforeignpolicyexpertsadvisingthe
countrystopofficialsinZhongnanhai,caughtChinasleadersoffguardjustastheydidWesternleaders.Themajorchallenge
forBeijingintheinitialstageofthecrisiswastocarefullynavigateasensitiveissue,whichinvolvedmanyofChinasimportant
politicalandeconomicpartners,eventhoughitdidnotaffectChinadirectly.
warningtodomesticmediathattheymaynotconnectthe...[Crimeaissue]toourowncountrysissueswithTaiwan,Tibet,or
Xinjiang.22BeijingsstanceonUkraineduringthisperiodamountedtocarefulmaneuveringandaconcertedeffortnottotake
sidesintheconflict.ChinaabstainedfromvotingonaWestern-backedUNSecurityCouncilresolutionthatcondemnedthe
Crimeareferendum,supportedUkrainesterritorialintegrity,andcalledforthenon-useofforce.23Atthesametime,Chinese
officialswerecarefultoavoiddirectcriticismofRussiawhileconsistentlycondemningtheWestssanctionspolicy.
wasworryinglyunpredictablewerelaterconfirmedbyMoscowsdirectinvolvementinSyriaandtherapidescalationof
tensionswithTurkey,neitherofwhichChineseexpertsanticipated.AnotherriskwasthatthetensionsbetweenRussiaandthe
WestwouldescalateandputgreaterpressureonChinatotakesides.
countriestopooltheireconomicandforeignpolicyresourcesandtakeadvantageoftheirinherentcomplementarity.Russiaisa
masterinboxing,whileChinaisskilledintaichi,hewroteinaChinese-languageop-edfortheGlobalTimes.26
oversizedappetitesandaggressivenessofChineseinvestorscouldcontributetoundesirabletensionsinthefutureandeventually
encourageRussiatomakeanotherU-turninordertomendrelationswiththeWest.Atthesametime,SOEsweretoldthatthey
shouldnotengageinprojectsthatmadenoeconomicsense.
simultaneousshocks.ChinasongoinganticorruptioncampaignwhichbeganasaninvestigationintoZhouYongkang,aformer
memberofthePolitburoStandingCommitteeandChinasenergyczareventuallywipedoutmanyofthetopmanagersof
leadingenergycompanies.Theirreplacementsneededtimetocatchuponthedetailsofwhathadalreadybeendiscussedwith
theirRussiancounterparts.Theanticorruptioncampaignsooneliminatedanyincentivesforproactiveinitiativeonthepartof
managersandbureaucratsintimesofbigpurges,passivityisobviouslythesafeststrategy.New,stricterrequirementsforSOE
efficiency,establishedattheCCPCentralCommitteesThirdPlenummeetinginNovember2013,presentedanadditional
therugoutfromunderpotentialprojects,includingintheenergysector,whichhistoricallyhasbeenthemostcrucialspherefor
bilateraleconomiccooperation.27
FuelingtheDragon
sustainingPutinsregimeandRussiasoveralleconomicprospects.Directandindirectearningsfromhydrocarbonsaccountfor
upwardof70percentofRussiasbudgetrevenue,accordingtosomeestimates.28Chinabecameanetimporterofoilin1994,
andthecountryhasworkedassiduouslytosecureaccesstonewenergysourcestopoweritseconomicgrowth,preferringto
dosothroughland-basedpipelines.29Priortotheeconomicslowdown,accesstoRussiannaturalgasbecameincreasingly
importantamidprojectionsofincreasedChinesedomesticdemand,attemptstoreducedependenceoncoal,andmounting
politicalconcernsaboutpollutioninbigcitiesaswellasotherilleffectsofChinasrapidmodernization.
Gas
fieldsinEasternSiberia,KovyktaandChayanda,viathenewPowerofSiberia(orSilaSibiri)pipeline,whichwillpump38
billioncubicmetersofgasannuallyuntil2030.WhilethepartiesdidnotdisclosethepriceatwhichRussiawillbesellingthisgas,
thereportedtotalvalueofthecontractwas$400billion.Atthetimethedealwassigned,thepriceofoilwasover$109per
barrel.TodaythepricefortheBrentcrudeoilbenchmarkislessthanhalfthat,whichmattersgreatlygiventheuseofoil-index
pricinginthecontract.AlexeyMiller,thechiefexecutiveofficer(CEO)ofthemajorRussiannatural-gasfirmGazprom,
expressedhispleasurewiththedeal,declaringattheSeptember2014SochiInternationalInvestmentForumthatinjustoneday
ouresteemedChinesepartnerscamenearGermany,ourmajorgasconsumer.30
Allthesame,officialsonbothsidesremainconfidentthatthepipelinewillbebuilt,thoughperhapswithdelays.Constructionhas
begunonbothRussianandChineseterritory.35ThefactthatthemaincontractorsontheRussiansideincludecompaniesowned
byGennadyTimchenko(Stroytransgaz)andArkadyRotenberg(Stroygazmontazh),membersofPutinsinnercircle,hasfurther
boostedconfidenceintheproject.36AfterGazpromabandoneditsmassiveSouthStreamandTurkishStreamprojectsin
Europe,freed-upcashflowscouldbedivertedtothePowerofSiberiapipeline,whichwillreceiveactivegovernmentsupportin
theformoftaxexemptionsandotherincentives.However,whilesomeChinesesourcesarecertainthatthepipelinewill
eventuallybecommissioned,thereisstillnoclarityonthematteroftheChineseloan.IfcreditisneededandChinacontinuesto
demandtheinvolvementofitsconstructioncompanies,itispossiblethatRotenbergsandTimchenkosfirmsmayultimatelybe
forcedtoformconsortiumswithChinesecompanies.37
Fornow,prospectsforotherGazpromprojectstargetedattheChinesemarketremainbleak.Moscowofferedtobuilda
pipelineacrosstheAltaiMountainstoXinjiang(theso-calledWesternRouteorthePowerofSiberiaIIpipeline),whichwould
haveacapacityof30billioncubicmetersofgasperyear.UnlikethefirstPowerofSiberia,thispipelinecouldbebuilton
existinginfrastructure,requiringlessconstructionwork,andwouldallowGazpromtopumpgastoChinafromexistingfieldsin
WesternSiberia.MoscowseekstopititsWesternandEasterncustomersagainsteachotherwhilesupplyinggasfromthesame
fieldstobothsides.Followingyearsofnegotiations,adetailedframeworkagreementwassignedduringXisMay2015visitto
Moscow,38butacommercialcontractbetweenGazpromandtheChinaNationalPetroleumCorporation(CNPC)settinga
pricefortheprojectsgasdoesnotappeartobeimminent.
basingitsdesiredpriceonitsexistingcontractswithGermanyorpossiblythePowerofSiberiapriceitsettledonwithChina.
ButfortheCNPC,thepreferredbenchmarkisfarcheaperTurkmengaspumpedintoXinjiangthroughapipelinecommissioned
in2010.RussiangaswouldrequireexpensiveinfrastructuretocarryitfromanentrypointinXinjiangtomajorconsumption
hubsinChinaseasternprovinces.Giventheabundanceofimportedliquefiednaturalgas(LNG)andthescaling-backof
projecteddemandforimportedgasduetotheeconomicslowdownandmoreefficientcoalusebyanewgenerationofChinese
powerplants,thewesternroutenowappearstobeanonstarter,asdoGazpromsplanstobuildathirdpipelineforSakhalin
gastoChinaviaVladivostok.AlthoughthecompanysignedamemorandumofunderstandingwiththeCNPC,andan8-billion-
cubic-meterpipelinebetweenSakhalinandVladivostok,whichwasbuiltbeforethe2012APECsummit,isalreadyoperational,
therearelingeringproblemswiththeresourcebase.39
Oil
TheRussiansectorthatmadethemostsignificantgainsintheChinesemarketin2014and2015wasoil,despitethecollapsein
prices.Thefoundationsforapartnershipwereestablishedin2005,whenRussiasstate-ownedRosneftbegansupplyingoilto
ChinaviarailwaytoservicecrucialChineseloans,whichhadenabledthefirmtobuyYuganskneftegaz,akeypartofanother
bankshadrefusedtoprovideloanstocoverthetransactionamidfearsthatYukossshareholderswouldusethecourtstopress
theirclaimtotheirformerassets.)
RosneftandtheCNPC,whichresultedina$3billionlossinrevenuefortheRussiancompany.Moreover,in2013,IgorSechin,
thepowerfulchairofRosneftandacloseallyofPresidentPutin,agreedtoaccept$60billioninloansfromChinesecompanies
aspartofwhatwastermedaprepaymentschemebackedbyfutureoildeliveries.ThemoneywasthenusedforRosnefts
domesticexpansion,includingitslandmarkpurchaseofRussiasthirdlargestproducer,TNK-BP,in2013.Now,withoilprices
50percentbelow2013levels,Rosneftisstrugglingfinanciallytocontendwiththesechallengingnewrealitiesevenasitfulfillsits
obligationsanddeliversthepromisedoiltotheChinese.InadditiontoincreasingthecapacityoftheSkovorodino-Mohe
pipeline,RosnefthasbegunsellingoiloutoftheKozminoportonthePacificCoastwith60percentofitnowgoingtoChina40
aswellasthroughKazakhstan,41whichhasincreasedRussiasshareofChineseoilimports(seefigures2and3).Atvarious
pointsin2015and2016,RussiaactuallysurpassedSaudiArabiaasChinasleadsupplier.42
inthe2000splayedasignificantroleinarapidtradeexpansion.Between2003and2012,tradebetweenthetwocountries
grewatanaverageof26.4percentperyear.In2011,thenpresidentsDmitryMedvedevandHuJintaoannouncedtheirgoals
ofachieving$100billioninbilateraltradeby2015and$200billionby2020.Initially,thesetargetsseemedattainable.In2014,
GDPdecreasedby3.4percent,andthesubsequentlowpurchasingpowerofRussiancompaniesandhouseholdsseeninthe
sharpdropinRussianimportsfromChina.TheonlysilverliningforRussiawastheeffectivedisappearanceofanimbalance
betweenitsexportstoandimportsfromChina(seefigure4).
pipeline.InNovember2014,theRussianMinisterofEnergyAlexanderNovaksuggestedthatRosneftmightacceptpayment
forthestakeinChineserenminbi.44Meanwhile,PutintoldtheTASSnewsagencythatRussiawasreadytoswitchtradein
VankoroilfromU.S.dollarstonationalcurrencies.45However,theRussiansappearedtohaveunrealisticexpectationsabout
thepotentialpricefortheminoritystakeinVankor,andtheChineseeventuallysuspendednegotiations.TheOilandNaturalGas
CorporationLimited,anIndiancompany,isasofmid-2016intheprocessofacquiringthestakeinVankor,provoking
additionaldissatisfactionfromBeijing.ChineseinvestorshavealsoexpressedinterestinstakesinotherRussianoilcompanies,
accordingtoRussianFinanceMinisterAntonSiluanov.46TherehavebeenunconfirmedsuggestionsinChineseanalyticalcircles
thatRussiamightultimatelysellalargestakeinRosnefttoaChineseoilcompanyorfinancialinstitutionforasymbolicprice,and
thatsuchapurchasemightprovideRosneftwithahelpfulwrite-downofitsdebtundertheprepaymentagreementandother
loanarrangements.TheRussiangovernmentcurrentlyisdiscussingthesaleofa19.7percentstakeinRosnefttovariousforeign
investors,includingthepossibilitythattheCNPCmaypurchase7percentofit.AccordingtoCNPCFirstVicePresidentWang
Zhongcai,thecompanyisactivelylookingintothedealandhasformedastudygrouptoexploretheopportunity.47
involvingthedrillingoftwooilwellsintheSeaofOkhotsk.48Atthedrillingsite,theseahasadepthofonly150meters(around
500feet),whichmeansitdoesnotqualifyasdeep-seadrillingundertheprovisionsofU.S.-andEU-ledsanctions.Asmany
internationaloil-servicecompanieshavebecomecautiousaboutRussianprojectsintheareascoveredbysanctions,the
introductionofadvancedChinesetechnologiescouldincreaseRussianoilcompaniesrelianceonChinaintheoil-servicesector,
whichisalreadydominatedbyChineseproducersinsomesubsectorssuchasdrillingplatforms.ThedependenceonChina,
however,isexpectedtoremainlimited,giventhattheRussianoil-serviceindustryisdominatedbylocalchampionslikeEurasia
Drillingandthesubsidiariesofmajorinternationalenergyfirms.Forthetimebeing,Chineseservicecompaniesclearlycannot
matchthetechnologiesorcapabilitiesofmajorglobaloilcompaniesorleadingoil-servicefirmssuchasHalliburtonand
Schlumberger.
Thesecond,morepromising,experimentwaslaunchedbyGazprom-Neft,Gazpromsoilsubsidiary,whichannouncedthatit
willselloilfromtheESPOpipelinetoChinesecustomersforrenminbi.49Despitethehypedclaimthatthistransactionwill
renminbitopurchaseChineseequipmentwillpreventconversionlossesandhedgeagainstcurrencyrisks,thussavingRussians
about5to7percentofthecontractprice,aswellasmovepaymentsoutoftheorbitoftheU.S.bankingsystem.Ifthisscheme
becomeswidespread,itcouldhelpimmunizetheRussian-ChineseoiltradeagainstrisksassociatedwithpossiblefutureWestern
sanctions.
AnyMarketforaBear?
ChinesefinancialinstitutionscouldbeasstrictasorevenstricterthansomeWesternbanksaboutcompliancewiththesanctions
regime.
RussiasSberbank,theJSCVTBBank,andChineselenderssignedinMayarebarelybeingusedbecausethereisnodemand
inRussiaforloansinrenminbi,accordingtoMaximPoletaev,thefirstdeputychairmanofSberbanksexecutiveboard.55Atthe
ChinesecredithasbeenextendedtoRussiancompanies,thesetransactionshavelargelybeensyndicatedloansinvolvingChinas
fourlargestbanksworkingincoordinationwithotherinternationalplayers.Thisfundingisofferedonlytowell-regarded
corporateborrowerslikeNovolipetskSteel,56whicharenotundersanctionsandcontinuetoenjoyaccesstoWesterncredit.57
Otherraresuccessstoriesincludethe$2billioncreditlinethattheLondonsubsidiaryoftheBankofChinaprovidedto
Gazprom.58ThisdealappearstobeagoodwillgestureconnectedtothePowerofSiberiapipelineconstructionaheadof
andtheFarEast,thesearenomatchforthepoolofRussiaexpertsthatEuropeanandU.S.bankshaveattheirdisposal.As
riskcompliancegrowsincreasinglysynonymouswithnavigatingtheU.S.andEUsanctionsregimeandcircumventingwhat
couldbetermedtoxicgrayareas,thecostofoperatinginRussiaisprohibitiveformanyChinesebanks.Thefirstbankstocut
backonbusinesswithRussiaweresmalleronessuchasPingAnBank,theBankofCommunications,andChinaMerchants
Bank,whichwereservicingtheaccountsofcompaniesfromoffshorejurisdictionsusedtoclearpaymentswithRussia.The
bankshaveaskedsomecustomerstoclosetheiraccountsbecausetheywereengagedinsomeactivitieswithRussia,
accordingtoaRosbaltnewsreport.62RussianandChinesebankingrepresentativesindicateprivatelythatthesamesituationhas
takenholdinHongKong,wherelocalbankshavebecomeextremelyreticentaboutopeningbankaccountsforRussianaswell
asUkrainiancitizens.
politicalpocketsoftheChinesegovernment,sotospeakarelessconnectedtotheinternationalfinancialsystem,andthuscan
takegreaterrisksintermsoftheirexposuretotheRussianmarket.64BothbankshavebeenactiveinRussiandealsthatrange
frombuildingsteelplantstoprovidingcreditlinesforRussiassanctionedstate-ownedbanks.65Themostrecentexampleof
theirinvolvementintheRussianeconomywasthelate-April2016announcementthattheCDBandtheChinaEximBankwill
providemuch-neededloansfortheYamalLNGprojecttotaling$12billionoverfifteenyears,whichmeansthattheprojecthas
lockedinalltheexternalfinancingitneeds($27billionintotal).ThedealisalandmarknotonlybecauseYamalLNGisakey
partofRussiasbroaderstrategyintheArcticandaflagshipLNGprojectbutalsobecauseNovatek(alongwithmajor
shareholderGennadyTimchenko)isatargetofU.S.andEUsanctions.Total,aFrenchnatural-gasproducerandaYamal
shareholder,hastriedtosecureEuropeanandJapanesefinancingfortheproject,accordingtoTotalCEOPatrickPouyanns
interviewswithKommersantandAsiaNikkei,buttheseeffortsfailed.66ThesamelogicappliedtoaMarch15,2016,dealin
whicha9.9percentstakeinYamalLNGwassoldtotheSilkRoadFund(SRF)fornearly$1.1billiontheSRFisa$40
billioninvestmentfundthatChinaestablishedin2014tosupportPresidentXisSilkRoadEconomicBeltinitiative.67
interlocutors,bothdealswerepersonallyblessedbyXiandintendedasagestureofgoodwilltotheKremlin,givenTimchenkos
roleasamemberofPutinsinnercircleandhispointpersonforChina.Whilethepersonalinvolvementofthetwocountries
leadershelpsexplaintheimpetusbehindtheYamalLNGdeal,italsoseemslikelythattheselectiveuseoffinancialinstitutions
withlimitedexposuretointernationalmarketswillbecomethepreferredmethodforfuturebilateralventures.Therearealready
callsbyRussianexpertstoestablishaspecializedjointRussian-Chinesefinancialunitwhichshouldbeimmunetoany
pressurefromtheUnitedStatesortheEU,asVasilyKashinputit.69
andChinahavefoundwaystofinancehigh-prioritydealsthroughspecialchannels,andhaveembarkedonanattempttocreate
therudimentsofabilateralfinancialinfrastructurethatwillbeimmunetointernationalpressure.Chinawillbeplayingthe
TechnologicalLinks
KremlinsdesiretoprotectlocalcompaniesfromcompetitionincludingthosewithwhichithadstrongtiesaswellasRussian
fearsofaninfluxofChinesemigrantworkers.InMay2015,aconsortiumcomposedofaChinaRailwayGroupsubsidiary
calledtheChinaRailwayEryuanEngineeringGroup,theNationalTransportationEngineeringDesignInstituteofMoscow,and
NizhnyNovgorodMetroDesignAGwastheonlybidderfora$400millioncontracttodesignahigh-speedraillinebetween
MoscowandKazan.76OnApril29,2016,RussianrailwaysreportedthatChinawasreadytoprovideupto$6billioninloans
andthataconcessionagreementwouldbesignedbytheendoftheyear.77TheChinesesidehasalsoagreednottoseekformal
Russiangovernmentloanguarantees,reportedlyatthedirectinstructionofPresidentXi,accordingtoseveralChinese
interlocutors.78Previousexperiencesuggeststhattheprojectcouldencountersignificantdelays,astheChinesepartnersare
demandingthatthelionsshareofequipmentbeproducedinChina.Yetthetoneoftheconversationmarksanimportantshiftin
RussiasattitudetowardChineseparticipationinthedevelopmentofitsinfrastructure.
Oneareaofbilateraltechnologicalcooperationthatisboomingisinformationtechnology(IT)andhardware.Russiancompanies
haddiscoveredtheadvantagesofworkingwithChinesetelecommunicationsgiantslikeZTEandHuaweiasopposedtotheir
WesternrivalslongbeforetheUkrainecrisis.DiscussionsaboutthepossibilityofshiftingtheprocurementofRussianITnetwork
assetsusedbygovernmentbodiesfromU.S.-producedtoChinese-producedequipmentintensifiedin2013afterEdward
SnowdensdisclosuresaboutsurveillanceunderU.S.NationalSecurityAgencyprograms.InMay2014,RussiasMinistryof
TelecomandMassCommunicationsestablishedataskforcetostudywhethersuchashiftwasfeasible,andbytheendof2015
theprocessoftransitioningtoChineseequipmentwaswellunderway.InOctober2014,theVoskhodResearchInstitute
whichisadministereddirectlybyRussiasMinistryofTelecomandMassCommunicationsandprovideshardwareandIT
solutionstostateinstitutions,includingmanycriticalsystemssuchasthevote-countingplatformusedinnationalandlocal
electionsagreedtobuyserversfromInspur,aChinesecompany.79Manyfinancialinstitutions,includingWestern-sanctioned
bankssuchasSberbankandJSCVTBBank,stateagencies,andstate-ownedcompanieshavestartedexpensive
withovercapacityandfiercecompetitionathome,manyChinesefirmsaredirectingtheireffortstowardoverseasexpansionand
arewillingtoprovidesignificantdiscountsinordertosecurethefirst-moveradvantageinnewmarkets.Frompassengervehicles
tocomplexITsystems,RussiasprocessoftransferringitstechnologicalpartnershipsfromtheWesttoChinahasalreadybegun
inearnest.
ComradesinArms
technologytoChina.Moscowsconcernswerebothmilitaryitfearedthatweaponssoldmightonedaybeusedagainst
Russiaandalsocommercial.TheChinesehadareputationwithintheRussianmilitary-industrialcomplexforcopyingRussian
ThesecondargumentrevolvedaroundChinasactualdemographicandeconomicfootprintinSiberiaandtheFarEast.Realistic
officialfigures,alongwithindependentstudies,haveshownthatChinesemigrationismarginal:atanygivenmoment,thereareno
morethan300,000ChineseinSiberiaandtheFarEast,includingtourists,exchangestudents,andlegaltemporaryworkers.
Illegalmigrationwascurtailedtowardtheendofthe2000s,andundercurrenteconomicconditionspeopleinChineseborder
provincesprefertomigratetotherichcoastalregionsoftheirmotherland,nottoRussiasFarEast.Thistrendhasaccelerated
sincetherubledevaluation,asmanyChinesebusinesspeopleinRussia,whowerepreviouslysendingmoneybackhome,
reportedlyareleavingthecountryandaregoingbacktothePRC.83
arms-exportmonopolyinanApril2015interviewwithKommersant.IfweworkinChinasinterests,thatmeanswealso
workinourinterests,Isaykinsaid.84ChinawillstartreceivingthefirstoffourtosixconsignmentsofS-400snoearlierthan
2018,85andthepriceofthecontractcouldreach$3billion.86AsVasilyKashin,aRussianexpertonmilitarytieswithChina,
wroteinaCarnegie.rucommentary,itwouldbenavetosupposethattheChinesecancopytheS-400systemswithinashort
periodsuchataskwouldrequiremanyyearsofeffort.Meanwhile,Almaz-Antey,theRussianproducerofairdefensesystems,
isalreadywellonitswaytodevelopingthenext-generationsystem(theS-500).87Thus,thedealmakesalotofcommercial
sense.
ThemilitaryandpoliticalconsequencesofthedealaremuchmoreimportantastheyincreasethePLAscapabilities.TheS-400
hasagreaterrangeforidentifyingtargetsandagreatermaximumfiringrange(upto400kilometersoraround250miles)than
previous-generationsystemsliketheS-300.ThiswillbringsignificantchangestothemilitarybalanceintheskiesoverTaiwan
andtheDiaoyu(Senkaku)Islands.ThePLAnowwillbebetter-positionedtocontrolairspaceabovetheseregionsfrom
assoonastheytakeoff.Chinacouldalsousethenewsystemtoestablishanairdefenseidentificationzoneoverthecontested
watersoftheSouthChinaSea.NegotiationsonthesaleoftheS-400toChinastartedseveralyearsago,butweresignificantly
acceleratedbytheUkrainecrisis.RussiasconfrontationwiththeWestanditsreassessmentofthestrategiccontextofRussian-
ChineserelationspushedtheKremlintogiveitsfinalblessingtothedeal.
AnotherlandmarktransactioninfluencedbytheUkrainecrisiswasChinaspurchaseof24Su-35fighterjets,whichNATO
callstheFlankerEthis$2billiondealwassignedinlate2015.88ItisnotablethatBeijingwasthefirstforeigncustomerforthis
authorizesalesofitsnewlydevelopedLada-classsubmarinetoChina.90Reversesalesarealsotakingplace.Forexample,after
GermanydeclinedtosellRussiadieselenginesforitsnewProject21631Buyan-Mcorvettesduetosanctions,Moscowturned
toBeijingtopurchaseChineseengines.AnotherareaofincreasedcooperationisthepurchaseofChineseelectronic
hascenturies-longties,butalsopressingsecurityandeconomicinterests.TheKremlinhasviewedtherapidincreaseinChinas
economicandpoliticalpenetrationoftheresource-richregion,usuallyatRussiasexpense,withgreatunease.Beijinghasbeen
atpainstostressitsrespectforMoscowsexclusiveinterestsinCentralAsia,butclearlyperceivesaneedtosecurefirmties
withthecountriesborderingtheunstableXinjiangregionandastrongincentivetogetaccesstotheregionsvastenergy
resources.
incentives,softpower,andmilitarytools.Inprivateconversations,Chineseofficialsacknowledgethattheyhadmajorconcerns
aboutRussiasreactiontotheunveilingofOBOR,astheKremlinwasinitiallyreluctanttonegotiategroundrulesfortheco-
existenceofXisinitiativeandPutinspetproject,theEurasianEconomicUnion(EEU).BeijingsfearwasthatMoscow,
anxiousaboutitsownstatusastheleadingyetgreatlydiminishedregionalpower,wouldregardOBORasanintrusioninto
RussiassphereofinfluenceandthereforepressurethestatesofCentralAsianottotakepartintheChineseproject.Chinese
leaderswerethereforebothsurprisedandrelievedwhenFirstDeputyPrimeMinisterShuvalovfirstannouncedattheBoao
ForuminMarch2015thattheEEUmemberswerereadytocooperatewithOBOR.Shuvalovthenpersonallyembarkedon
negotiatingaframeworkdocumentwithBeijingonPutinsbehalf.
FortheRussianleadership,thiswastheresultofpainfulinternaldiscussions,inwhichtheeconomicteamledbyShuvalovwith
supportfromRussianexpertsandmembersofthebusinesscommunitysoughttowinPutinssupportandovercomethe
Chineseinitiativeoutweighedtherisks.ItisnowunderstoodthatChinawillinevitablybecomethemajorinvestorinCentralAsia
andthemajormarketforitsvastnaturalresources,duetothecomplementarynatureoftheChineseandregionaleconomies.
AccordingtoRussianofficials,MoscowandBeijingwillstrivetoachieveastabledivisionoflaborinCentralAsia.China,with
itsdeeppocketsandhungerforresources,willbethemajordriverofeconomicdevelopmentintheregionthroughOBORand
otherprojects,whileMoscowwillremainthedominanthard-securityproviderthroughitsCollectiveSecurityTreaty
Organization(CSTO),whilealsocementingtheEEUsroleasasourceofnormsfortheimplementationofChineseinvestment
projects.TheKremlinhopesthisformulawillsatisfybothBeijingwhichisstilluncomfortabledeployingtroopsoutsideits
bordersandtheCentralAsianstates,whichareanxiousaboutarisingChinaandmoreaccustomedtoRussiaslong-standing
militarypresenceintheregion.
SilkRoadEconomicBelt.92MoscowandBeijingdeclaredtheirdesiretocoordinatethetwoprojectsinordertobuilda
commoneconomicspaceinEurasiafeaturingafreetradeagreementbetweenEEUmembersandChina.Althoughthelanguage
isstillsomewhatambiguous,thedocumentmarkedamajordeparturefromtheKremlinspreviouscourseofcompetitionand
firstCentralAsianstatetoactivelypitchitsinvestmentprojectstoChina,whichcausedtensionswithMoscow.InOctober
2015,EEUleadersagreedtocoordinatetheirbilateralarrangementswithChinaundertheunionsumbrella,butsofarnotmuch
hashappened.ItwasonlyinMarch2016attheBoaoForumthatRussianDeputyPrimeMinisterDvorkovichpromised
ChinesePremierLithatRussiawouldprovidealistofEEUproposalsforinvestmentprojectsthatcouldhelptolinkupthetwo
initiatives.ThefirstanniversaryoftheostensiblyhistoricdeclarationwasthuscelebratedquietlyinBeijingandMoscowwitha
silentconsensusthatthefirstyearoftheagreementhadbasicallybeenafailure.TheMay31EEUsummitinAstanaalso
broughtnomajornewsregardingEEU-OBORcoordination.
U.S.disengagementfromtheregionasthedrawdownfromAfghanistancontinues,andRussiasrelativedeclineasaneconomic
centerofgravity,overthelongrunMoscowandBeijingmayfindwaystoaccommodatetheirmutualinterestsoutsidethe
frameworkofEEU-OBORcooperation,especiallyasthefutureofbothprojectslooksdim.
roleastheleadsecurityprovidertotheregion.SofarChinaofficiallyhasavoidedstepsthatmightundercutRussiaspositionas
thepreeminentregionalmilitarysuperpower,astatusthatRussiaenjoysthankstoitsroleinCentralAsiathroughCSTOandits
militarypresenceinTajikistanandKyrgyzstan.ThemainvenueforBeijingsparticipationinregionalsecurityarrangementsfor
thepreviousdecadehasbeentheShanghaiCooperationOrganization,whichhasprovidedaplatformforjointRussian-Chinese
militarydrills.However,ChinasgrowingtradeandinvestmentpresenceinCentralAsiaisstartingtotriggeranevolutionin
Beijingslong-standingposition.TheregionsmineralresourcesarelikelytoplayanincreasinglyimportantroleinthePRCs
overallenergysecurity.Likewise,risksofinstabilityaregrowingduetothedeterioratingsecuritysituationinneighboring
AfghanistanandthepotentialriseofIslamicextremism.Asofthiswriting,thecircumstancesbehindthedeadlyJune2016
attacksintheKazakhcityofAktoberemainfarfromclear,butmayprovideanotherindicationthateventhemoststable
countriesinCentralAsiafacethisthreat.Takentogether,theChineseleadershipwillprobablystarttothinkabouthowto
infrastructure.
InternaldiscussionontherolethatChinacouldplayasaregionalsecurityproviderarestillintheirinfancyandrarelymentioned,
ifatall,inChineseopensources.93However,accordingtoChineseacademics,differentideasarebeingfloated,suchas
establishingspecialChineseprivatemilitarycompaniesordevelopingclosertieswithregionalarmies.Notablerecent
andamemberoftheCentralMilitaryCommission,todiscussbilateralmilitary-to-militarytieswithbothcountries,aswellasthe
establishmentofanewsecuritycoordinationmechanismforintelligencesharingandconsultationsamongBeijing,Dushanbe,
Kabul,andIslamabad.ThesedevelopmentshavestirredanxietyinMoscow,withsomeexpertslabelingthesemovesanattempt
tocreateanalternative,Beijing-centeredsecurityframeworkintheregionthatwillputRussiaatadisadvantage.94Fangstrip
wasalsoatopicfordiscussionbetweentheRussianandChineseenvoysonissuespertainingtoAfghanistan,ZamirKabulov
andDengXijun,duringtheirMarch2016talksinMoscow.
newspaperIzvestia.95NeverthelessfurtherChineseattemptstoboostitssecurityroleinCentralAsiaattheexpenseofRussia
thedevaluationoftheruble.ManyoftheRussian-Chinesedealsinauguratedwithmuchfanfareoverthelasttwenty-fourmonths
haveremainedonpaper.LeadingChinesebankshavesurprisedtheKremlinwiththeirrigorousadherencetoWestern
GrowingdisillusionmentwithMoscowspivottoChinaisstartingtocometothesurface,airedinpublicforumsbythemost
well-connectedandwealthyRussiancitizens.96SimilardisillusionmentiswidespreadinBeijing,whereofficialsand
businesspeoplecomplainaboutRussiansbeingstubborn,arrogant,andshort-sightedmissingagoldenopportunitytoopenup
toChinaasaresult.
Russian-ChineserapprochementwerepresentlongbeforetheUkrainecrisis.Theseincludethecomplementaryandincreasingly
interdependentnatureofthetwocountrieseconomiesasharedcommitmenttomaintainingauthoritarianpoliticalsystemsand
limitingforeigninfluenceathome,aswellastoupholdingprinciplesofsovereigntyandnoninterventionineachothersaffairs
traditionalistsocialnormsandvaluesfueledbythegreat-powerambitionsoflargeswathesoftheirpopulationsandacommon
eliteandpopularresentmentoftheWestsglobaldominance.Themutualdistrustbetweentheelitesofbothcountries,
particularlyontheRussianside,andtheveryambivalentpersonalstanceofmanypowerfulofficialsandtycoonsinboth
countriestowardtheWest,meantformanyyearsthatthetwocountriesonlysawmarginalimprovementsinrelationsdespite
theirmanysharedinterests.NowthepersonalchemistrybetweenPutinandXiandtheWesternsanctionscampaignagainst
Russiahavegalvanizedthepartnershipandmaybringittoanewandhigherlevelthanbefore.
Korea.Russialacksthepoliticalwilltomodernizeitseconomyandinstitutions,whichwouldrequirechallengingvariouspillars
ofthecurrentregimeandvestedinterests.Inthatcontext,MoscowmaybemostcomfortablewithChinaasitskeypartner,
otherpotentialmarketsinotherAsianeconomiesviathePacificOcean.GazpromssuggestionthatitmayscraptheVladivostok
LNGprojectinfavorofyetanotherpipelinetoChinasuggestsMoscowmayalreadybemovinginthisdirection.Beforethe
Ukrainecrisis,RussiawastryingtocreatepipelineinfrastructureleadingtothePacificCoast,whilebranchpipelinestoChina
wereseenasnecessarypreconditionsforreceivingChinesefunding(thiswasthecasewiththeESPOoilpipeline).Now,direct
pipelinestoChinamaybecomeendsinthemselves,particularlyifcommoditypricesremainlowandRussiacontinuestolackthe
technologyitneedstobuildLNGplants.
AsecondmajoroutcomecouldbeMoscowsacceptanceofChinesecompaniesownershipofsubstantialstakes(including
jointcontrolwithRussianminoritystakeholders)instrategicdepositsofnaturalresources.AsremarksmadebyRussianDeputy
PrimeMinisterDvorkovichinKrasnoyarskin2015show,thisideaisalreadycirculatingwithintheRussianelitecommunity.So
farmarketconditionsandhopesforaspeedyremovalfromWesternsanctionshaveallowedRussianstodriveahardbargain
whendiscussingpotentialsalesoftheseassets.However,ifcurrentconditionspersist,Russiasappetiteforhardcashmaygrow
inthemediumterm,andtheChinesemaybeabletobuyassetsatmuchcheaperprices.Athirdformofsymbiosiscouldtake
theshapeofjointventuresbetweenChinesecompaniesandRussianbusinesspeopleclosetotheKremlin,inwhichtheChinese
wouldprovidetechnologyandfinancingwhiletheRussianswouldensureMoscowsapprovalofprojectsandbids.
furtherintoChinasembrace,atleastintheeconomicsphere.Inthisnewscheme,themutualbenefitsthatbothsidesderivewill
compensateforthegrowinginequalitybetweenthem.ChinawillofferMoscowaneconomiclifeline,whileRussiawillprovide
vitalresources(militaryandciviliantechnology,naturalresources,anddiplomaticsupport,includingintheUNSecurityCouncil)
topropelChinasriseasaglobalpowerhousethatcancompetewiththeUnitedStates.ThebitterpillofRussiascontinued
declinewillbelesspainfulamidBeijingseffortstoshowsymbolicdeferencetoRussiasstatusasagreatpower.Thetoneof
theirofficialdialoguewilldiffersharplyfromwhatMoscowhearsfromWesterninterlocutors,asthevaluesofthetworegimes
convergemuchmoreclosely.
abouttheRussian-Chineserelationship.ThefalloutfromtheUkrainecrisisistriggeringfundamentalchangesinrelationsbetween
thelargestpowersinEurasia,whichwillleavefewunaffected.
Notes
3ThisstudyisbasedonaseriesofinterviewswithRussianandChineseofficials,businesspeople,andexperts.Interviewswere
conductedfromFebruary2014toApril2016inMoscow,Vladivostok,Beijing,andHongKong.Theauthorwouldliketo
thankallwhowerereadytosharetheirinsights.Mostoftheinterlocutors,forunderstandablereasons,haverequested
anonymityduetothesensitivenatureoftheirwork.TheauthorwouldalsoliketothankVitaSpivakandNataliaDobrynina,his
researchassistantsattheCarnegieMoscowCenter.
6ThistermwascoinedbyformerAustraliandiplomatBoboLoinhisbookofthesametitle.SeeBoboLo,Axisof
Convenience:Moscow,Beijing,andtheNewGeopolitics(Washington,DC:BrookingsInstitution,2008).
7PutinandXi:NotQuitetheAlliesTheySeem,FinancialTimes,May7,2015,http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/cd637c7e-
f4a8-11e4-8a42-00144feab7de.html#axzz4AxH2WeWF.
MinsiterPutinMeetsWithChineseVicePresidentXiJinping,ArchiveoftheOfficialSiteofthe20082012PrimeMinisterof
theRussianFederationVladimirPutin,March23,2012,http://archive.premier.gov.ru/eng/events/news/9884/.
2015):1318.
anddemographicheftChinageneratesconsiderableuneaseinRussia.ConsiderthedemographicsituationineasternSiberia,
wheresixmillionRussiansliveacrosstheborderfromupto120millionChinese.See:JosephS.Nye,ANewSino-Russian
Alliance?,ProjectSyndicate,January12,2015,http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/russia-china-alliance-by-
26WangHaiyun,ChangshuaiEzhongguanxishizhanlueshangfanhutu[ItsstrategicallyblindtotreatSino-Russianrelationslike
mud],HuanqiuShibao,April2,2015,http://opinion.huanqiu.com/opinion_world/2015-02/5587490.html.
September30,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-30/china-gas-demand-forecast-cut-by-cnpc-
researcher-amid-slowdown.
gas/ijra.
32GazpromCancels$2.15BlnTenderforConstructionofPowerofSiberiaGasPipelineStretch,TASS,December29,
2015,http://tass.ru/en/economy/847697.
33MikhailKrutikhin,KakGazpromustalonekudadevatgaz[HowGazpromendedupwithnoonetosellitsgasto],
CarnegieMoscowCenter,June24,2015,http://carnegie.ru/2015/06/24/ru-60480/iaz0.
34JonathanStern,GasPipelineCooperationBetweenPoliticalAdversaries:ExamplesFromEurope,ChathamHouse,
January2005,
35AlexandraGalaktionovaandElenaMyazina,RotenbergbezkonkursapoluchilkontraktiGazpromapochtina200mlrd
rub[Rotenbergreceivesa200billionrubleGazpromcontractswithoutformalbid],RBC,December23,2015,
http://www.rbc.ru/business/23/12/2015/567adfee9a79471210b50252KitajnachalstroitprodolzhenieSiliSibiri[China
beginsconstructconstructionofPowerofSiberiaextension],Vedomosti,June2,2015,
36NataliaDerbyzheva,KompaniyaTimchenkobezkonkursapoluchilavtoroypodryadpoSileSibiri[Timchenkos
companyhasgainedsecondcontractforPowerofSiberiawithoutatender],RBC,May20,2016,
40Kitaystalkrupneyshimimporteromrossiyskoynefti[ChinabecamethelargerimporterofRussianoil],Vedomosti,March
11,2016,http://www.vedomosti.ru/business/news/2016/03/11/633217-kitai-nefti.
47YuliaKotovaandMaximTovkailo,KitayskuyuCNPCzainteresovalaprivatizatsiyaRosnefti[ChineseCNPCisinterested
inRosneftprivatization],RBC,April21,2016,http://www.rbc.ru/business/21/04/2016/5718bd919a7947743d4115f6.
http://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2015/09/03/607298-rosneft-vpervie-privlekaet-kitaiskuyu-kompaniyu-dlya-
bureniya-shelfe-ohotskogo-morya.
52Ibid.
53AlexandraTerentyeva,Kitaiskiyebankislishkomtshatelnopodhodiatksankciyam-VTB[VTB:Chinesebankstoostrict
onsanctions],Vedomosti,September5,2015,http://www.vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2015/09/05/607669-kitaiskie-baki-
55YuliyaFedorinova,ElenaMazneva,andAnnaBaraulina,PutinsGotaNewProblemWithChina,Bloomberg,September
2,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-09-01/putin-s-china-turn-hits-potholes-as-trade-drops-markets-slide.
56NLMKsNovember2,2015,corporateannouncementcanbeaccessedat:NLMKGroupClosesUSD400MillionPre-
ExportFacility,pressrelease,LondonStockExchange,November2,2015,
62BankiKitayaotkazivayutsyaobsluzhivatoffshornieschetarossiyskihklientov[ChinesebanksrefusetoworkwithRussians
offshoreaccounts],Rosbalt,September24,2014,http://www.rosbalt.ru/business/2014/09/24/1318906.html.
MonographSeriesNo.3,BrookingsInstitution,March2011,
http://www.brookings.edu/~/media/research/files/papers/2011/3/21-china-energy-downs/0321_china_energy_downs.pdf.
64Ibid.
VTBandVEB],TASS,May8,2015,http://tass.ru/ekonomika/1956850VEBsofficialstatementcanbeaccessedat:VEB
andtheChinaDevelopmentBankSignCreditAgreement,VEBBankforDevelopment,December17,2015,
http://www.veb.ru/en/press/news/arch_news/index.php?id_19=101631RussiasVTB,VEBRosselkhazbankAgreeOn
LoanswithChinaEximBank,Reuters,October13,2014,http://www.reuters.com/article/russia-china-banks-
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2769183TotalCEOEyesCuttingCosts,ContinuingYamalLNGProject,NikkeiAsian
Review,October7,2015,http://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Companies/Total-CEO-eyes-cutting-costs-continuing-Yamal-LNG-
project.
68OlgaMordushenkoandJuriBarsukov,Soporoinasobstvenniesily[Relyingononesownstrength],Kommersant,April
30,2016,http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2978177.
69VasilyKashin,IndustrialCooperation:PathtoConfluenceofRussianandChineseEconomies,ValdaiPapers#4(44),
ValdaiDiscussionClub,March2016,http://valdaiclub.com/files/10377/.
Bond,SouthChinaMorningPost,April27,2016,http://www.scmp.com/business/markets/article/1939043/icbc-and-bank-
china-help-underwrite-russias-issuance-largest-yuan.
73SofiaOkunandSapozhkovOleg.Kitaiskayafinansovayagramota[Chinesefinancialgrammar],Kommersant,October
23,2015,http://www.kommersant.ru/Doc/2838059.
79PavelKantishev,NIIVoskhodzakluchilsoglashenieskitaiskimInspurna$225mln[Voskhodresearchinstitutesigned
signsdealwithChineseInspurfor$225mln],Vedomosti,October15,2014,
newsID=200004787-1-2&blockID=1539&regionID=77&lang=enVTBscorporateannouncementofNovember10,2014,
canbeaccessedat:VTBBeginsCollaborationWithHuawei,VTBGroup,November10,2014,
83Thesametrendscanbeobservedincross-bordertradein2014and2015,withChinesebordercitieslosingupto90
percentoftheirRussiantourists.InsteadChinesecitizensarecrossingthebordertobuyseeminglycheapRussiangoods,mostly
agriculturalproducts.In2015,RussianfoodexportstoChinagrewby200percent.
84IvanSafronov,EslimirabotaemvinteresakhKNR,torabotaemvsvoikhinteresakh[Ifweworkintheinterestsofthe
PRC,weworkinourowninterests],Kommersant,April13,2015,http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2707945.
Shelkovogoputi[JointstatementoftheRussianFederationandPeoplesRepublicofChinaoncopperationontheconstruction
ofJointEurasianEconomicUnionandtheSilkRoadProjects],OfficialInternetResourcesofthePresidentofRussia,March8,
2015,http://kremlin.ru/supplement/4971.
95TatyanaBaykoba,KitaytesnitRossiyuvZentralnoyAzii[ChinaisjostlingRussiainCentralAsia],Izvestia,March16,
2016,http://izvestia.ru/news/606469.
AsiaPolicy,CarnegieMoscowCenter,April22,2016,http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2016/04/22/pivot-to-nowhere-realities-
of-russia-s-asia-policy/ixfw.
Senttime: 06/30/201603:07:11AM
To: RobertOtto<OttoRC@state.gov>
BCc: swallen@1scom.netchris.bort@gmail.comnaterey80@gmail.comdonald.jensen8@gmail.com
FacingsanctionsfromtheWestaftertheannexationofCrimea,RussiahasreorienteditseconomytowardChina.Inmaking
thepivot,itsoughttobreakitsdiplomaticisolation,secureamarketforitsenergyresources,andgaingreateraccessto
Chinesecreditandtechnology.Theresultsoftheshiftaremixed,butiftrendscontinue,Moscowislikelytodriftfurtherinto
Beijingsembrace.Anasymmetricalinterdependenceisemerging,withglobalimplications.






Still,MoscowsgrowingdependenceonChinaanditstendencytoseeconflictthroughananti-Americanlensisforcing
ittosupportBeijinginsomedisputesitwouldprefertoavoid.

Russiasmilitary-industrialcomplexisopeningupmoretotheChinesemarket.Thisshiftmayaffectthestrategic
balanceinTaiwan,theEastChinaSea,andtheSouthChinaSeaastheChinesemilitarygainsaccesstoadvanced
equipment.


ofgoingEast.TherupturebetweenRussiaandtheWestoverUkrainewasseenassomethingthatwouldhelpChinatosecure
aRussiamoreaccommodatingtoBeijingscommercialdemandsandmorewillingtogiveuponambitionsofdeepintegration
withtheWestanightmarescenarioforChinesestrategists.
historicalterritorialdisputes,anunbalancedstructureoftrade,theChineseeconomicanddemographicthreattoSiberiaandthe
FarEast,competitionforinfluenceinCentralAsia,andtheoverallgrowinginequalitybetweenthetwocountrieswould
isnotgoingtodoMoscowanyfavours,arguedaMay2015editorialintheFinancialTimes. 7ThomasS.EderandMikko
BorisYeltsinsrelationshipwithhisChinesecounterpart,JiangZemin,wasgood.TheyspokeinRussian,whichfacilitated
directconversation,buttheRussianpresidentnevercalledhisChinesecolleaguefriend,asheaddressedformerU.S.
presidentBillClintonandformerJapaneseprimeministerRyutaroHashimoto.PutinsexperiencewithJiangwasfruitfulbut
brief.Bothleadersmanagedtosignthe2001FriendshipTreaty,whichpavedthewayforthesettlementofRussian-Chinese
borderdisputes.JiangssuccessorHuJintaowastenyearsolderthanPutinandunemotional.VariousinterlocutorsdescribeHu
aswearingthesameinscrutablefaceinallsituations.
menhavedevelopeddeeppersonaltiesdespitethelanguagebarrier,accordingtothosewhohaveobservedtherelationshipup
close.
approach.
energyissues(co-chairedbyDeputyPrimeMinisterDvorkovichandChinashighest-rankingvicepremier,ZhangGaoli),a
newintergovernmentalcommissionwasformed.Thenewcommissionisco-chairedbyRussianFirstDeputyPrimeMinister
IgorShuvalov,Putinspowerfulpointmanforeconomictroubleshooting,andZhang,whoisalsooneofsevenmembersofthe
memoriesofthewaragainstJapan,itsenormoushumancost,andtheroleoftheCommunistsinthenationalresistancestill
formoneofthepillarsofthepartyslegitimacy.AttemptstoquestionordownplaytheroleofeithercountryduringWorldWar
IIareviewedinMoscowandBeijingasattacksontheirprestigeandonthecoreideologicalfoundationsoftheregimes.18But
thispatriotismismorethanjustcold-bloodedcalculation:ithasdeeprootsinthegenuinepersonalemotionsoftheleaders.
Afterall,Xisfather,XiZhongxun(19132002),tookpartinthewaragainstJapan,andPutinsfather,VladimirSpiridonovich
Putin(19111999),foughtinthewaragainstGermany.
growingChineseassertivenessintheSouthChinaSeawasperceivedinMoscowandBeijingasacoordinatedplottodenyboth
countriestheirrightfulplaceinhistory.
assertionsishardtocomeby.Russianeliteslong-standingcautiousattitudestowardChinaareaseparatematter,butthis
mind-sethasundergonesignificantchangesasadirectresultoftheUkrainecrisis.
warningtodomesticmediathattheymaynotconnectthe...[Crimeaissue]toourowncountrysissueswithTaiwan,Tibet,
orXinjiang.22BeijingsstanceonUkraineduringthisperiodamountedtocarefulmaneuveringandaconcertedeffortnotto
takesidesintheconflict.ChinaabstainedfromvotingonaWestern-backedUNSecurityCouncilresolutionthatcondemned
theCrimeareferendum,supportedUkrainesterritorialintegrity,andcalledforthenon-useofforce.23Atthesametime,
ChineseofficialswerecarefultoavoiddirectcriticismofRussiawhileconsistentlycondemningtheWestssanctionspolicy.
amasterinboxing,whileChinaisskilledintaichi,hewroteinaChinese-languageop-edfortheGlobalTimes. 26
therugoutfromunderpotentialprojects,includingintheenergysector,whichhistoricallyhasbeenthemostcrucialsphere
forbilateraleconomiccooperation.27
FuelingtheDragon
sustainingPutinsregimeandRussiasoveralleconomicprospects.Directandindirectearningsfromhydrocarbonsaccount
forupwardof70percentofRussiasbudgetrevenue,accordingtosomeestimates.28Chinabecameanetimporterofoilin
1994,andthecountryhasworkedassiduouslytosecureaccesstonewenergysourcestopoweritseconomicgrowth,
preferringtodosothroughland-basedpipelines.29Priortotheeconomicslowdown,accesstoRussiannaturalgasbecame
increasinglyimportantamidprojectionsofincreasedChinesedomesticdemand,attemptstoreducedependenceoncoal,and
mountingpoliticalconcernsaboutpollutioninbigcitiesaswellasotherilleffectsofChinasrapidmodernization.
Gas
billioncubicmetersofgasannuallyuntil2030.WhilethepartiesdidnotdisclosethepriceatwhichRussiawillbesellingthis
gas,thereportedtotalvalueofthecontractwas$400billion.Atthetimethedealwassigned,thepriceofoilwasover$109
perbarrel.TodaythepricefortheBrentcrudeoilbenchmarkislessthanhalfthat,whichmattersgreatlygiventheuseofoil-
indexpricinginthecontract.AlexeyMiller,thechiefexecutiveofficer(CEO)ofthemajorRussiannatural-gasfirmGazprom,
expressedhispleasurewiththedeal,declaringattheSeptember2014SochiInternationalInvestmentForumthatinjustone
dayouresteemedChinesepartnerscamenearGermany,ourmajorgasconsumer.30
ownedbyGennadyTimchenko(Stroytransgaz)andArkadyRotenberg(Stroygazmontazh),membersofPutinsinnercircle,
hasfurtherboostedconfidenceintheproject.36AfterGazpromabandoneditsmassiveSouthStreamandTurkishStream
projectsinEurope,freed-upcashflowscouldbedivertedtothePowerofSiberiapipeline,whichwillreceiveactive
governmentsupportintheformoftaxexemptionsandotherincentives.However,whilesomeChinesesourcesarecertainthat
thepipelinewilleventuallybecommissioned,thereisstillnoclarityonthematteroftheChineseloan.Ifcreditisneededand
Chinacontinuestodemandtheinvolvementofitsconstructioncompanies,itispossiblethatRotenbergsandTimchenkos
firmsmayultimatelybeforcedtoformconsortiumswithChinesecompanies.37
existinginfrastructure,requiringlessconstructionwork,andwouldallowGazpromtopumpgastoChinafromexistingfields
inWesternSiberia.MoscowseekstopititsWesternandEasterncustomersagainsteachotherwhilesupplyinggasfromthe
samefieldstobothsides.Followingyearsofnegotiations,adetailedframeworkagreementwassignedduringXisMay2015
visittoMoscow,38butacommercialcontractbetweenGazpromandtheChinaNationalPetroleumCorporation(CNPC)setting
apricefortheprojectsgasdoesnotappeartobeimminent.
Oil
RosneftandtheCNPC,whichresultedina$3billionlossinrevenuefortheRussiancompany.Moreover,in2013,Igor
Sechin,thepowerfulchairofRosneftandacloseallyofPresidentPutin,agreedtoaccept$60billioninloansfromChinese
companiesaspartofwhatwastermedaprepaymentschemebackedbyfutureoildeliveries.Themoneywasthenusedfor
Rosneftsdomesticexpansion,includingitslandmarkpurchaseofRussiasthirdlargestproducer,TNK-BP,in2013.Now,with
oilprices50percentbelow2013levels,Rosneftisstrugglingfinanciallytocontendwiththesechallengingnewrealitiesevenas
itfulfillsitsobligationsanddeliversthepromisedoiltotheChinese.InadditiontoincreasingthecapacityoftheSkovorodino-
Mohepipeline,RosnefthasbegunsellingoiloutoftheKozminoportonthePacificCoastwith60percentofitnowgoingto
China40aswellasthroughKazakhstan,41whichhasincreasedRussiasshareofChineseoilimports(seefigures2and3).At
variouspointsin2015and2016,RussiaactuallysurpassedSaudiArabiaasChinasleadsupplier.42
inthe2000splayedasignificantroleinarapidtradeexpansion.Between2003and2012,tradebetweenthetwocountriesgrew
atanaverageof26.4percentperyear.In2011,thenpresidentsDmitryMedvedevandHuJintaoannouncedtheirgoalsof
achieving$100billioninbilateraltradeby2015and$200billionby2020.Initially,thesetargetsseemedattainable.In2014,
VankoroilfromU.S.dollarstonationalcurrencies.45However,theRussiansappearedtohaveunrealisticexpectationsaboutthe
accordingtoRussianFinanceMinisterAntonSiluanov.46TherehavebeenunconfirmedsuggestionsinChineseanalytical
circlesthatRussiamightultimatelysellalargestakeinRosnefttoaChineseoilcompanyorfinancialinstitutionforasymbolic
price,andthatsuchapurchasemightprovideRosneftwithahelpfulwrite-downofitsdebtundertheprepaymentagreement
andotherloanarrangements.TheRussiangovernmentcurrentlyisdiscussingthesaleofa19.7percentstakeinRosneftto
variousforeigninvestors,includingthepossibilitythattheCNPCmaypurchase7percentofit.AccordingtoCNPCFirstVice
PresidentWangZhongcai,thecompanyisactivelylookingintothedealandhasformedastudygrouptoexplorethe
opportunity.47
involvingthedrillingoftwooilwellsintheSeaofOkhotsk.48Atthedrillingsite,theseahasadepthofonly150meters
(around500feet),whichmeansitdoesnotqualifyasdeep-seadrillingundertheprovisionsofU.S.-andEU-ledsanctions.As
manyinternationaloil-servicecompanieshavebecomecautiousaboutRussianprojectsintheareascoveredbysanctions,the
Schlumberger.
about5to7percentofthecontractprice,aswellasmovepaymentsoutoftheorbitoftheU.S.bankingsystem.Ifthis
schemebecomeswidespread,itcouldhelpimmunizetheRussian-Chineseoiltradeagainstrisksassociatedwithpossiblefuture
Westernsanctions.
AnyMarketforaBear?
sanctionsregime.
RussiasSberbank,theJSCVTBBank,andChineselenderssignedinMayarebarelybeingusedbecausethereisnodemandin
Russiaforloansinrenminbi,accordingtoMaximPoletaev,thefirstdeputychairmanofSberbanksexecutiveboard.55Atthe
Chinasfourlargestbanksworkingincoordinationwithotherinternationalplayers.Thisfundingisofferedonlytowell-
regardedcorporateborrowerslikeNovolipetskSteel,56whicharenotundersanctionsandcontinuetoenjoyaccesstoWestern
credit.57Otherraresuccessstoriesincludethe$2billioncreditlinethattheLondonsubsidiaryoftheBankofChinaprovided
toGazprom.58ThisdealappearstobeagoodwillgestureconnectedtothePowerofSiberiapipelineconstructionaheadof
andtheFarEast,thesearenomatchforthepoolofRussiaexpertsthatEuropeanandU.S.bankshaveattheirdisposal.Asrisk
compliancegrowsincreasinglysynonymouswithnavigatingtheU.S.andEUsanctionsregimeandcircumventingwhatcould
betermedtoxicgrayareas,thecostofoperatinginRussiaisprohibitiveformanyChinesebanks.Thefirstbankstocutback
onbusinesswithRussiaweresmalleronessuchasPingAnBank,theBankofCommunications,andChinaMerchantsBank,
whichwereservicingtheaccountsofcompaniesfromoffshorejurisdictionsusedtoclearpaymentswithRussia.Thebanks
haveaskedsomecustomerstoclosetheiraccountsbecausetheywereengagedinsomeactivitieswithRussia,accordingto
aRosbaltnewsreport.62RussianandChinesebankingrepresentativesindicateprivatelythatthesamesituationhastakenhold
inHongKong,wherelocalbankshavebecomeextremelyreticentaboutopeningbankaccountsforRussianaswellas
Ukrainiancitizens.
whicha9.9percentstakeinYamalLNGwassoldtotheSilkRoadFund(SRF)fornearly$1.1billiontheSRFisa$40billion
investmentfundthatChinaestablishedin2014tosupportPresidentXisSilkRoadEconomicBeltinitiative.67
interlocutors,bothdealswerepersonallyblessedbyXiandintendedasagestureofgoodwilltotheKremlin,given
TimchenkosroleasamemberofPutinsinnercircleandhispointpersonforChina.Whilethepersonalinvolvementofthe
twocountriesleadershelpsexplaintheimpetusbehindtheYamalLNGdeal,italsoseemslikelythattheselectiveuseof
financialinstitutionswithlimitedexposuretointernationalmarketswillbecomethepreferredmethodforfuturebilateral
ventures.TherearealreadycallsbyRussianexpertstoestablishaspecializedjointRussian-Chinesefinancialunitwhich
shouldbeimmunetoanypressurefromtheUnitedStatesortheEU,asVasilyKashinputit.69
TechnologicalLinks
Kremlinsdesiretoprotectlocalcompaniesfromcompetitionincludingthosewithwhichithadstrongtiesaswellas
RussianfearsofaninfluxofChinesemigrantworkers.InMay2015,aconsortiumcomposedofaChinaRailwayGroup
subsidiarycalledtheChinaRailwayEryuanEngineeringGroup,theNationalTransportationEngineeringDesignInstituteof
Moscow,andNizhnyNovgorodMetroDesignAGwastheonlybidderfora$400millioncontracttodesignahigh-speedrail
linebetweenMoscowandKazan.76OnApril29,2016,RussianrailwaysreportedthatChinawasreadytoprovideupto$6
billioninloansandthataconcessionagreementwouldbesignedbytheendoftheyear.77TheChinesesidehasalsoagreednot
toseekformalRussiangovernmentloanguarantees,reportedlyatthedirectinstructionofPresidentXi,accordingtoseveral
Chineseinterlocutors.78Previousexperiencesuggeststhattheprojectcouldencountersignificantdelays,astheChinese
partnersaredemandingthatthelionsshareofequipmentbeproducedinChina.Yetthetoneoftheconversationmarksan
importantshiftinRussiasattitudetowardChineseparticipationinthedevelopmentofitsinfrastructure.
InstitutewhichisadministereddirectlybyRussiasMinistryofTelecomandMassCommunicationsandprovideshardware
andITsolutionstostateinstitutions,includingmanycriticalsystemssuchasthevote-countingplatformusedinnationaland
localelectionsagreedtobuyserversfromInspur,aChinesecompany.79Manyfinancialinstitutions,includingWestern-
sanctionedbankssuchasSberbankandJSCVTBBank,stateagencies,andstate-ownedcompanieshavestartedexpensive
ComradesinArms
officialfigures,alongwithindependentstudies,haveshownthatChinesemigrationismarginal:atanygivenmoment,thereare
nomorethan300,000ChineseinSiberiaandtheFarEast,includingtourists,exchangestudents,andlegaltemporaryworkers.
periodsuchataskwouldrequiremanyyearsofeffort.Meanwhile,Almaz-Antey,theRussianproducerofairdefense
systems,isalreadywellonitswaytodevelopingthenext-generationsystem(theS-500).87Thus,thedealmakesalotof
commercialsense.
acceleratedbytheUkrainecrisis.RussiasconfrontationwiththeWestanditsreassessmentofthestrategiccontextof
Russian-ChineserelationspushedtheKremlintogiveitsfinalblessingtothedeal.
resources.
incentives,softpower,andmilitarytools.Inprivateconversations,Chineseofficialsacknowledgethattheyhadmajor
concernsaboutRussiasreactiontotheunveilingofOBOR,astheKremlinwasinitiallyreluctanttonegotiategroundrulesfor
theco-existenceofXisinitiativeandPutinspetproject,theEurasianEconomicUnion(EEU).BeijingsfearwasthatMoscow,
Chineseinitiativeoutweighedtherisks.ItisnowunderstoodthatChinawillinevitablybecomethemajorinvestorinCentral
Asiaandthemajormarketforitsvastnaturalresources,duetothecomplementarynatureoftheChineseandregional
economies.
economiccenterofgravity,overthelongrunMoscowandBeijingmayfindwaystoaccommodatetheirmutualinterests
outsidetheframeworkofEEU-OBORcooperation,especiallyasthefutureofbothprojectslooksdim.
infrastructure.
andamemberoftheCentralMilitaryCommission,todiscussbilateralmilitary-to-militarytieswithbothcountries,aswellas
theestablishmentofanewsecuritycoordinationmechanismforintelligencesharingandconsultationsamongBeijing,
Dushanbe,Kabul,andIslamabad.ThesedevelopmentshavestirredanxietyinMoscow,withsomeexpertslabelingthesemoves
anattempttocreateanalternative,Beijing-centeredsecurityframeworkintheregionthatwillputRussiaatadisadvantage.94
FangstripwasalsoatopicfordiscussionbetweentheRussianandChineseenvoysonissuespertainingtoAfghanistan,Zamir
KabulovandDengXijun,duringtheirMarch2016talksinMoscow.
newspaperIzvestia. 95NeverthelessfurtherChineseattemptstoboostitssecurityroleinCentralAsiaattheexpenseofRussia
toChinaasaresult.
jointcontrolwithRussianminoritystakeholders)instrategicdepositsofnaturalresources.AsremarksmadebyRussian
DeputyPrimeMinisterDvorkovichinKrasnoyarskin2015show,thisideaisalreadycirculatingwithintheRussianelite
community.SofarmarketconditionsandhopesforaspeedyremovalfromWesternsanctionshaveallowedRussianstodrive
ahardbargainwhendiscussingpotentialsalesoftheseassets.However,ifcurrentconditionspersist,Russiasappetiteforhard
cashmaygrowinthemediumterm,andtheChinesemaybeabletobuyassetsatmuchcheaperprices.Athirdformof
symbiosiscouldtaketheshapeofjointventuresbetweenChinesecompaniesandRussianbusinesspeopleclosetotheKremlin,
inwhichtheChinesewouldprovidetechnologyandfinancingwhiletheRussianswouldensureMoscowsapprovalofprojects
andbids.
willcompensateforthegrowinginequalitybetweenthem.ChinawillofferMoscowaneconomiclifeline,whileRussiawill
providevitalresources(militaryandciviliantechnology,naturalresources,anddiplomaticsupport,includingintheUNSecurity
Council)topropelChinasriseasaglobalpowerhousethatcancompetewiththeUnitedStates.ThebitterpillofRussias
continueddeclinewillbelesspainfulamidBeijingseffortstoshowsymbolicdeferencetoRussiasstatusasagreatpower.
ThetoneoftheirofficialdialoguewilldiffersharplyfromwhatMoscowhearsfromWesterninterlocutors,asthevaluesofthe
tworegimesconvergemuchmoreclosely.
Notes
3ThisstudyisbasedonaseriesofinterviewswithRussianandChineseofficials,businesspeople,andexperts.Interviews
wereconductedfromFebruary2014toApril2016inMoscow,Vladivostok,Beijing,andHongKong.Theauthorwouldliketo
2015):1318.
gas/ijra.
34JonathanStern,GasPipelineCooperationBetweenPoliticalAdversaries:ExamplesFromEurope,ChathamHouse,January
2005,
52Ibid.
62BankiKitayaotkazivayutsyaobsluzhivatoffshornieschetarossiyskihklientov[Chinesebanksrefusetoworkwith
Russiansoffshoreaccounts],Rosbalt,September24,2014,http://www.rosbalt.ru/business/2014/09/24/1318906.html.
64Ibid.
project.
69VasilyKashin,IndustrialCooperation:PathtoConfluenceofRussianandChineseEconomies,ValdaiPapers#4(44),Valdai
DiscussionClub,March2016,http://valdaiclub.com/files/10377/.
newsID=200004787-1-2&blockID=1539&regionID=77&lang=enVTBscorporateannouncementofNovember10,2014,can
beaccessedat:VTBBeginsCollaborationWithHuawei,VTBGroup,November10,2014,
83Thesametrendscanbeobservedincross-bordertradein2014and2015,withChinesebordercitieslosingupto90percent
oftheirRussiantourists.InsteadChinesecitizensarecrossingthebordertobuyseeminglycheapRussiangoods,mostly
ofJointEurasianEconomicUnionandtheSilkRoadProjects],OfficialInternetResourcesofthePresidentofRussia,March
8,2015,http://kremlin.ru/supplement/4971.
From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/06/201606:10:40PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.comChrisBort<chrisjb1@ucia.gov>
Cc: EugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
Subject: RussiaandtheSecurityofEurope-CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace
RussiasannexationofCrimeainMarch2014wasthelateststepinMoscowslongprocessofrejectionofthepost
ColdWarEuro-Atlanticsecurityorder,reflectingadeeplyheldviewthatisunlikelytochangeanytimesoon.Western
strategywillneedtoadjusttoRussiasconceptionofitsinterestsandprioritiesinandaroundEurope.
encroachmentonthecountryssecurity,economic,andgeopoliticalinterests,aswellasontheirholdonpowerin
Russia.
defense.ItisreinforcedbyRussianelitesconcernsabouttheinternalweaknessofthecountryanditsdirection.
Italsoservesasatoolfortheelitestomobilizethepopulationinthefaceofexternalthreats.Theelitesrecognize
thatthecountryisinasystemiccrisisbutfearthatsolutionscouldprovedestabilizing.
ThelackofconfidenceintheirdefensecapabilitieshasledRussianmilitaryexpertstoconsiderstrategiesfor
earlynuclearescalationasadeterrentandcountermeasuretotheWestsperceivedconventionalsuperiority.The
WestsplansforimprovingconventionalcapabilitiesandmissiledefensesareerodingRussianmilitaryplanners
confidenceintheirnucleardeterrent.
peripheryofRussiaisprecariousandaddstotheinternalchallengesfacingthecountry.Russianplannersare
beingconfrontedwitharegionrifewithinstability,localconflicts,andforeignpowerstheyviewascompeting
withoropenlyhostiletoRussiaineverystrategicdirection.
Inthisenvironment,Russiaisresortingtoanarrayoftoolsfromnuclearsaberrattlingtointimidationofsmaller,
weakerneighborstoinformationwarfare,cyberoperations,subversion,bribery,andotherpoliticalandeconomic
measuresasmeansofhybridwarfareorcontinuationofpoliticsbyallavailablemeans.
securityguarantee,thesesixbattlegroundstatesremaininwhatMoscowperceivesasitssphereofprivileged
interests.Itispreparedtousemilitaryforcetokeeptheminit.AstheWestisnotpreparedtoconsignthese
statestotheRussiansphere,theybecomethearenaforEast-Westcompetition.
NATOsArticle5securityguaranteeofitsmembersseriously,andthatitisnotpreparedtotestthatguarantee
directly.RussianleaderswenttowartwicetopreventGeorgiaandUkrainefromeventuallyastheysawit
joiningNATO.RatherthanchallengeNATOdirectly,Moscowwillcontinuetorelyonitswidearrayofhybrid
warfaremethodstounderminememberstatesconfidenceinthealliance.
frontlinestateswillhaveastabilizingeffectonthestandoffbetweenNATOandRussia.NATOsactionsinthe
aftermathoftheUkrainecrisis,intendedtoshoreupthefrontlinestates,havetriggereddisproportionateRussian
responses,includingdeploymentofanti-accessandarea-denial(A2/AD)capabilitiestoCrimeaandKaliningrad
aswellasthreatstodeploynuclearweaponsthere.
AbsentmajorchangesinRussias(orNATOs)outlook,thisadversarialrelationshipwillremainakeyfeatureof
theEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderfortheforeseeablefuture.Eventually,itwilltakeapolitical,notamilitary,
solutiontoresolvethisstandoff.
Introduction
TheannexationofCrimeabyRussiainMarch2014andtheundeclaredwaragainstUkrainethatfollowedmarkedthe
endofthepostColdWarperiodinEuropeanhistory.Russianactionshavedestroyedkeyelementsofboththepost
ColdWarsecuritysystemandthepostWorldWarIIsecuritysysteminEuropethathadsurvivedfornearlythree-
quartersofacentury.ThedamagedonebyRussianactionsisdeepandlasting,withpre-andpost-Ukraineembodying
acleardividinglineinEuropeansecurityaffairs.AnewgeopoliticaldivisionofEuropehasemergedaswell.Puttingthe
piecesbacktogetherinUkraineandshoringupaunitedEuropewillstretchU.S.capabilities.Thesetwinchallengeswill
remainastrategicimperativeforU.S.policymakersabsentamajorshiftinRussianpositionswithrespecttoEuropean
securityahighlyunlikelyoccurrencewithoutachangeinthecountrysleadershipandgoverningideology.
foreignpolicyestablishments.Few,ifany,analystsoneithersideoftheAtlantichadpredictedthatMoscowwould
movetodestroywhatwasenvisionedattheendoftheColdWarasEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfandits
neighbors.1RussianactionsagainstUkrainecameasasurpriseevenformanyseasonedRussianforeignpolicy
observers.2ThedecisiontoseizeandsubsequentlyannexCrimeaandtolaunchthewarineasternUkraineinsupport
ofRussian-inspiredseparatistswasmostlikelypartofaspontaneous,panickyresponsebyMoscowtotherapidly
changingpoliticalenvironmentinUkraineratherthananelementofalong-term,well-thought-out,deliberatestrategy.3
However,acarefulexaminationofRussiasownnarrativeaboutEuropeanandEurasiansecurity,anditsevolutionsince
theendoftheColdWar,suggeststhatRussianactionsinUkrainewereentirelylogical,perhapseveninevitable,asan
extensionofRussianthreatperceptions.AsseenfromMoscow,therapidchangesinUkrainianpoliticsthecollapse
ofthepresidencyofViktorYanukovychandthecomingtopowerofapoliticalcoalitionadvocatingUkrainespro-
EuropeanandEuro-Atlanticorientation,includingeventualmembershipintheEuropeanUnion(EU)andtheNorth
AtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)carriedwiththemprofoundgeopoliticalconsequencesforRussia:theysignaled
theemergenceofnewthreatstoRussiassecurityrightatitsdoorstep,threatsthatnoRussianleaderislikelytotolerate
withoutawholesalechangeinthecountrysideologyandunderstandingofitsnationalsecurity.
FromMoscowsperspective,itsactionsinUkrainerepresentedquintessentiallyaseriesofnecessarydefensive,rather
thanoffensiveandexpansionist,measuresthatwereintendedtopreventanevenmoreseveregeopoliticalimbalanceon
thecontinentresultingfromNATOandEUexpansionintoCentralandEasternEurope.Attherootoftheseactions
wasasenseofvulnerabilityratherthanconfidenceinMoscowsrelationswiththeWest.Ironically,thesecurity
environmentaroundtheperipheryofRussiathathasemergedasaresultoftheannexationofCrimeaandthe
subsequentaggressionagainstUkraineundoubtedlyleavesRussianmilitaryplannerswithagreatersenseof
vulnerability.
Europeansecurity.Aftertheideologicalandmilitarystandoffthathaddividedthecontinentformorethanfourdecades,
EuropeincludingRussiawascomingtogetheronthebasisofanewvision,embracedbyallasthefoundationfora
newsecurityorder.
Thatsecurityorder,describedbyWesternleadersasEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors,
wouldnotrelyonsuchfamiliarconceptsasbalanceofpowerorbalanceofintereststomaintainpeaceonthecontinent.
ItwouldinsteadrelyonallEuropeannationsincludingRussiamaintainingacommitmenttosharedvaluesand
adherencetoasetofkeyprinciplestoguidetheirforeignandsecuritypolicies.Theseprincipleswererespectingthe
independence,sovereignty,andterritorialintegrityofallnationsrefrainingfromusingforcetosettleinternational
disputesallowingfreedomofchoicebyallstatestopursuetheirforeignpoliciesandenterintoalliancesand
demonstratingrespectforfundamentalhumanrightsandpersonalfreedomsinstatesdomesticpoliticalarrangements.
governmentofallEuropeannations,Canada,andtheUnitedStatescametogetherin1990tosigntheCharterofParis
foraNewEurope.5Inthatdocument,theywelcomedtheneweraofdemocracy,peaceandunityinEuropeand,
amongotherthings,pledgedtosettledisputesbypeacefulmeansanddefenddemocraticinstitutionsagainstactivities
whichviolatetheindependence,sovereignequalityorterritorialintegrityoftheparticipatingStates.
TheCharterofPariswasjoinedbytheSovietUnion,whosecommitmentswereassumedbyRussiauponitsdissolution
in1991.UkraineandotherformerSovietstatesalsojoinedtheOrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope,
whichwasestablishedtoimplementthevisionoftheCharterofParis.
AnothermajorstepintheevolutionofEuropewasthesigningin1992oftheMaastrichtTreaty.6Itwasamilestonein
theprocessofEuropeanintegrationalsoonthebasisofsharedvaluesthattransformedtheEuropeanCommunity
intotheEuropeanUnion.TheEUwouldpursuethegoalsofpromotingandstrengtheningdemocraticinstitutions,
establishingamonetaryunion,anddevelopingacommonforeignandsecuritypolicy.
landscape,havingconsentedtoshedtheouterandinnerempirespeacefullyinthelate1980sandearly1990s.Atthe
time,boththeSovietgovernmentandthegovernmentofthenewRussianstatedeclaredanddemonstratedindeedtheir
commitmenttoupholdtheunderlyingprinciplesofEuropeansecurityandstability.
EarlySignsofTrouble
However,whiletherestofthecontinentcelebratedthedawnofanewpeacefulandharmoniouserainEuropeanhistory
andembracedthevisionofEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors,Russiawashavingsecond
thoughts.TheideaofaEuropeansecuritysystembasedonavagueconceptofsharedvaluesdidnotsitwellwiththe
Russianforeignpolicyandsecurityestablishment.Thus,speakingataforeignministryconferencedevotedtoa
discussionofanewforeignpolicyconceptoftheRussianFederation,thenforeignministerAndreyKozyrevdeclared
thatRussiamustbecomeanormalgreatpower.7ThechairmanoftheForeignAffairsCommitteeoftheRussian
Duma,YevgeniyAmbartsumov,welcomedtheforeignministersproposalandwentfurther,declaringthatthetimehad
cometoabandonidealisticdeclarationsinfavorofrealpolitik.8
AlthoughtheRussiangovernmentwaspreoccupiedatthetimewithaseeminglyendlesssuccessionofdomesticcrises
thatfollowedthedissolutionoftheSovietUnion,includingacollapsingeconomyandfiercepoliticalstruggleinthe
Russianparliament,wherethereformagendaranintostrongopposition,theRussianforeignpolicyestablishment
articulatedamoreambitiousvisionofthestatesintereststhanthedirestateofRussiasdomesticpoliticsandeconomy
mighthavesuggested.Insharpcontrasttohisearlierconciliatorystatements,Ambartsumovexplicitlylaidclaimto
Russiasspecialrights,evenresponsibilities,throughouttheterritoriesoftheformerSovietstatesandsuggestedthat
Russianintereststranscendedthebordersofthesenewlyindependentstates.9SergeyKaraganov,aleadingforeign
policyscholarandfounderoftheCouncilonForeignandDefensePolicy,wroteinasimilarveinthatRussiahadnotjust
asetofinterests,butaspecialmissionaheavycrosstobearintheterritoriesoftheformerSovietUnion.10
RussiahadinheriteditsnationalsecurityestablishmentfromtheSovietUnion.Ambartsumov,Kozyrev,andKaraganov
representedanewgenerationofforeignpolicythinkersandpractitionerswithrelativelyprogressiveattitudeswhocould
havebeenexpectedtoholdmoreenlightenedviewsonrelationswithneighboringstatesandthepostColdWar
securityarrangementsinEurope.ButtheRussianmilitary,securityservices,anddiplomaticestablishmentwereall
productsoftheColdWarinwhichmistrustoftheWestwasdeepandnoteasilyovercomebydeclarationsofpeaceful
intentionsbyEuropeanandU.S.leaders.11
TheseearlysignalsthatsharedvaluesmaynotbesufficientforRussiaasthebasisforEuropeansecurityandstability
couldhaveremainedalargelyinconsequentialdiscourseintherelativelynarrowandself-containedcommunityof
Russianforeignpolicyexperts.Foreignpolicyinthe1990stookabackseattodomesticaffairs,especiallytheeconomy,
whichwasthedominantconcernofthecountryselitesandthegeneralpublic.However,thedebatewasbroughttothe
foreofRussiandomesticpoliticsandEuropeandiscussionsaboutthecontinentssecurityarchitecturebytwocritically
importantprocesses:enlargementoftheEUandNATO.
understandingofPolandsdesiretojoinNATO.12Kozyrevreportedlyechoedthatsentimentdespitehavingbeen
opposedtotheideapreviously.However,justafewweekslater,inOctober1993,theRussianpresidentsentaletter
tothenU.S.presidentBillClintonstatinghisstrongoppositiontomembershipintheallianceforPolandoranyother
CentralorEasternEuropeancountry.13Yeltsinsapparentchangeofpositionwasreportedlyduetopressurefromthe
Russianmilitaryestablishment,whichstillconsideredNATOathreat.14
ThelaunchofanactivediscussioninEuropeandtheUnitedStatesaboutNATOenlargementtransformedtheinitial
cracksintheEuropeansecuritylandscapeintoamajordividebetweenRussiaandmostoftherestofEurope.NATO
alliesandaspirantsmaintainedthatexpandingthealliancewasintendednotasahostilestepagainstRussia,butthat
bringingthezoneofstabilityandsecurityclosertoRussiasborderwouldonlybenefitMoscow.Russian
counterargumentswerepreciselytheopposite,stressingthemilitarycapabilitiesthatNATOexpansionwouldinevitably
bringclosertoRussianborders.(SeeRussiangovernmentthinktankmapsshowingNATOenlargementinfigures1
and2.)
RussianoppositiontoNATOenlargementwassharedbypoliticiansacrossthepoliticalspectrum.Theconservative
wingofRussianpoliticsrepresentedbythenationalistsandtheCommunistsopposedthealliancesexpansionfor
geopoliticalandideologicalreasons.Theliberalsandreformersopposeditbecausetheysawitasdamagingtotheir
alreadytenuouspositioninRussiandomesticpolitics,vulnerabletocriticismfromopponentswhoaccusedthemof
betrayingRussiannationalinterestandbeingagentsoftheWest.15
Thevalues-basedapproachtoEuropeansecuritywasfailingtogetrecognitioninRussiaforseveralreasons:after
nearlythree-quartersofacenturyunderanideologicallydrivenandfailedregime,thepopulationhadlittleconfidencein
ideasingeneralthismistrustwasreinforcedbythenewRussiangovernmentsfailuretodeliveranddemonstratetothe
publicthetangiblebenefitsofthenewrulingideologyofthemarketanddemocracy,asthecountrylimpedfromone
crisistothenext.
AfterbeingcutofffromWesternpoliticalsciencefordecades,Russianinternationalrelationsscholarswereavidly
absorbingideasputforthbyleadingWesternpoliticalscientists.ThemostprominentamongthemwereSamuel
HuntingtonandZbigniewBrzezinski,whosebooksTheClashofCivilizationsandtheRemakingofWorldOrder
andTheGrandChessboardrespectivelyapproachedcontemporaryinternationalrelationsfrompointsofviewthat
rejectedtheveryideaofavalues-basedsecuritysysteminEuropeandEurasia.16Huntingtonsvolume,asthetitle
suggests,predictedaconflictpittingWesterncivilizationanditsliberalideologyagainstothercivilizationsguidedby
otherideas.BrzezinskiarguedthatitwasimportantfortheUnitedStatestopreventanothermajorpowerreadRussia
fromdominatingtheEurasianlandmass.
periphery.18
Washingtonsforeignpolicyestablishment,itwaseasyforRussianforeignandnationalsecuritypolicymakers,manyof
themproductsoftheColdWar,tobeskepticalofU.S.andalliesreassurancesaboutvalues-basedsecurity
arrangementsforEuropeandEurasia.WhiletheideaofNATOextendingitsmembershipbeyondEuropewasnot
broughtupeveninthemostambitiousdiscussionsofthealliancesfutureatthetime,NATOdidextenditsreachinto
CentralAsiathroughitsPartnershipforPeaceprogram.17ThatcouldhavebeeninterpretedbyRussianmilitary
plannersasamaneuvertoencircleRussia,notwithstandingthefactthatRussiaitselfhadjoinedthePartnershipfor
Peace.
AnotherfactorshapingRussianthreatperceptionswithrespecttoNATOandEuropeansecuritywastheconflictinthe
formerYugoslavia.ForRussia,stillreelingfromthedissolutionoftheSovietUnionandstrugglingtoovercomemultiple
politicalandeconomicchallenges,theviolentbreakupofYugoslaviawasacontinuingreminderofthedangersithad
barelyescaped.TheRussiangovernmentvehementlyopposedNATOsinterventioninYugoslaviaas,amongother
reasons,apotentialprecedentforsimilaractionbyNATOinRussiaorarounditsperiphery.18TheRussianmilitarys
brutaltacticsduringthe19941996warinChechnyadrewwidespreadcondemnationfromtheWest.Thepossibilityof
aNATOinterventioninthebreakawayrepublic,nomatterhowimprobabletomostseasonedobservers,was
nonethelesswidelydiscussedinRussia.19
considerationsonlyreinforcedRussianoppositiontothecampaignandresistancetoNATOsenlargement.Fromthe
standpointofRussiannationalsecurityplanners,theextraditionandtrialoftheformerYugoslavstrongmanSlobodan
MiloeviundoubtedlyservedasareminderthatatsomefuturetimeaweakenedRussiangovernmentcouldbeforced
tosurrendertheleadersofthemilitarycampaigninChechnyaandthattheywouldfindthemselvesontrialforwar
crimesbeforeaninternationaltribunal.20
FromthestandpointofRussiannationalsecurityplanners,theonlyguaranteeagainstsucheventswasthevastnuclear
arsenalRussiahadinheritedfromtheSovietUnion.Russiannationalsecuritydocumentsfromthe1990sonwardhave
stressedtheuniqueroleofnuclearweaponsastheultimateperhapseventheonlyguaranteeofRussiansovereignty
andstrategicindependence.21
ButalthoughnuclearweaponswereindispensableasaguaranteeagainstWesterninterventioninRussia,theywerefar
lessusefulwhenitcametointerveningincrisesbeyondRussiasbordersandprojectingMoscowsinterestsbeyondthe
borders.ThenucleararsenalwasoflittleusewhenitcametodeterringNATOenlargementeverclosertoRussian
bordersandsecuringasphereofinfluenceforRussiaarounditsperipheryalong-standingRussianobjective
articulatedasearlyas1992byleadingRussianforeignpolicythinkersandpractitioners.Forthat,Russiawouldhaveto
rebuilditsconventionalcapabilities,whichinturnwouldrequireacommitmentofsignificanteconomicresources.
AStrongWarning
Duringthefirstdecadeofthetwenty-firstcentury,Russiaenjoyedamajoreconomicrebound.Inthedecadefromthe
financialcollapseof1998totheendofVladimirPutinssecondpresidentialtermin2008,Russiangrossdomestic
product(GDP)grewfromjustunder$300billiontonearly$1.7trillionincurrentprices.22Astheeconomyrebounded
anddomesticpoliticsstabilized,theRussiangovernmentassumedafarmoreprominentpositionintheinternational
arenathanduringthe1990s.Russiabecameafull-fledgedmemberoftheG8industrializedeconomiesandasserted
itselfasastrongandindependentvoiceonmajorissues,fromEuropeansecuritytothewarinIraq.
ThemostnotableandforcefulstatementonforeignandsecuritypolicyfromthatperiodcamefromPutinpersonally,
deliveredattheMunichSecurityConferencein2007.Thespeech,describedbysomeintheaudienceasColdWar
like,clearlylaidoutRussianrejectionofthepostColdWarsecurityorderinEurope.23TheRussianpresident
characterizedNATOenlargementasaprovocativeunilaterallandgrabbytheU.S.-ledallianceseekingtoexpandits
sphereofinfluence.InputtingitsmilitaryforcesrightuptoRussiasborder,Putinsaid,NATOwasinviolationof
assurancesgiventoRussiaattheendoftheColdWar.Thisunilateral,unipolar,U.S.-centricsecuritymodel,he
concluded,wasunacceptable.
Moreover,accordingtothenarrativewidelyheldinRussiasnationalsecurityestablishment,NATOenlargementwas
notonlyalandgrabthatupsetthegeopoliticalbalanceinEurope,butitalsoconstitutedaviolationofassurancesgiven
byWesternleaderstothenSovietpresidentMikhailGorbachevthatinexchangeforGermanysreunificationand
NATOmembership,thealliancewouldnotexpandeastward.24Thenatureofthisclaimhasbeenrepeatedly
disputed.25Anddocumentaryevidencetosupportithasbeenambiguousatbesttosaynothingofitspractical
irrelevance,fornobody,notevenRussianofficials,proposestoundoNATOenlargement.Still,theideathattheWest
brokeitspromisehasbecomeanintegralpartofRussiandiscussionsaboutpostColdWarsecurityinEurope.
provocativeunilaterallandgrabbytheU.S.-ledallianceseeking
toexpanditssphereofinfluence.
RussianleadersopposedEuropespostColdWarsecurityorderalsoonideologicalgrounds.TheycriticizedU.S.and
EuropeaneffortstopromotedemocracyaroundtheperipheryofRussiaasathinlydisguisedpursuitoftheWests
expandedsphereofinfluence.26Theyalsoviewedtheeffortsasadeeplydestabilizingundertakingthatthreatenedthe
stabilityandsecurityofneighboringstatesandevenheldoutthepossibilityofunderminingRussiasownhard-won
domesticstability.Beyondthat,thepushbytheWesttopromotedemocracyinsideRussiawasdeclaredbyRussian
leadersasaviolationofRussiansovereigntyandpotentiallydestabilizinganddeeplythreateningtothePutin
administrationitself.
AsRussiasowndomesticpoliticstookonamoreauthoritarianturnandPutinconsolidatedmorepower,hecame
undercriticismfromWesternleaders.27CombinedwithenthusiasticWesternexpressionsofsupportfortheRose
RevolutioninGeorgiain2003andtheOrangeRevolutioninUkrainein20042005bothcrisesinwhichRussiaand
theWestwerepittedagainsteachotherthroughproxyfactionstheWestssupportfordemocracythroughtheever-
expandingreachoftheEUandNATOemergedasthemostcontentiousissueinrelationswithRussia.Buildingonthe
majorthemeofhisMunichaddress,PutindeliveredafurtherwarningtoNATOatthealliances2008Bucharest
summit.NATOspromiseoffuturemembershiptoGeorgiaandUkraine,hesaid,constitutedadirectthreatto
Russiansecurity.Inanominouspreviewoffutureevents,hespokeofthehistorictiesbetweenRussiaandtheethnic
RussianpopulationsofeasternUkraineandCrimeaandthepopulationsdesireforclosetieswiththemotherland.28
AsiftheRussianpresidentstwowarningswerenotenough,thewarwithGeorgiain2008sentafurthermessagetothe
West,aswellastoRussiasneighbors,thatPutinmeantwhathesaid.InastatementonRussiantelevisioninthe
immediateaftermathofthewarinGeorgia,thenpresidentDmitryMedvedevdeclaredcountriesaroundRussias
peripheryasasphereofRussiasprivilegedinterests.29NostatementdeliveredbyaRussianleaderpriortothewar
of2008hadsignaledwithgreaterclarityMoscowsrejectionofavalues-basedsecuritysysteminEurope.Medvedev
woulddividethecontinentintospheresofinterestsandinfluence,andhewasfullycommittedtodefendRussiassphere
fromencroachmentbyotherpowers.
ThewarinGeorgiadeliveredtwoverydistinctmessagestotwodifferentaudiences.TotheWest,themessagewasto
stayoutofthesphereofRussiasprivilegedinterests.ToRussia,themessagewasthatdespitethesuccessfulcampaign
againstitstinyneighbor,theRussianmilitarywasinneedoffar-reachingreform.30Russianeededthecapabilitybeyond
itsnucleararsenaltodefenditsinterestsanddeterthosewhomightconsiderinfringingonthem.Themilitaryreform
launchedintheaftermathofthewarinGeorgiaandaprogramofmilitarymodernizationwereintendedtogiveRussia
thecapabilitytodojustthat.31
TheBreak
The20082012interregnumbetweenPutinssecondandthirdtermsaspresidentwasaperiodofrelativecalmin
RussiasrelationswiththeWest.CombinedwiththeresetwithRussiabeginningin2009bytheadministrationofU.S.
PresidentBarackObama,otherimperativesthewarinAfghanistan,Iransnuclearprogram,thecrisisinLibyatook
precedenceoverNATOenlargement.Atthesametime,newlylauncheddebatesinsideRussiaaboutdomesticpolitical
andeconomicmodernizationheldouttheprospectofRussiareturningtothepathofdemocratizationandamore
cooperativerelationshipwiththeWest.32Inaddition,NATOlackedthenecessaryconsensustopushforGeorgias
membershipintheallianceintheaftermathofthewarof2008.Andin2010,UkraineremovedNATOmembership
fromitslistofnationalsecurityprioritiesaltogether.33
ThecalmwasbrokenbydevelopmentsinsideRussia.PutinsdecisiontoreclaimthepresidencyfromMedvedevwas
metwithlarge-scaleprotestsunprecedentedinthehistoryofmodernRussiabyproponentsoffurtherpoliticaland
economicreformsthathadbeendebatedduringMedvedevspresidency.34TheprotestsweregreetedintheWestasa
manifestationofRussiasdemocraticspiritandpoliticalreawakening.35
TheresponsefromthePutinadministrationwasharsh.ItincludedaseriesofnewlegislativestepstolimittheRussian
publicsspaceforpoliticalprotestscourtactionsagainstprotestersandamediacampaignaccusingtheWestof
instigatingprotestsinRussiatoundermineandweakenit.36TheWestwaspromotinginRussiavaluesthatwerealiento
Russiansociety,theKremlincharged,embracingthesloganRussiaisnotEurope.37Putinsthirdtermbeganwitha
clearjuxtapositionofRussiavs.theWestasaconflictdrivenbydifferentvaluessystems.Twodecadesaftersigningon
tothevisionofEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors,Russiafinallyabandonedit.
PutinsthirdtermbeganwithaclearjuxtapositionofRussiavs.
theWestasaconflictdrivenbydifferentvaluessystems.
ThisbreakalsomanifesteditselfinRussianforeignpolicy,particularlyinrelationswiththeformerSovietstates.Building
onearlierRussianpronouncementsaboutasphereofinfluenceandinterests,andthedangerposedbytheWests
geopoliticalexpansion,PutinelevatedEurasianintegrationthegatheringoftheformerSovietstatesaroundRussiato
thetopofhisforeignpolicyagendaforhisthirdterm.38BuildingontheRussia-Kazakhstan-Belaruscustomsunion
establishedin2000,PutinproposedtomovetowardaCommonEconomicSpace,eventuallyproceedingtoa
politicalEurasianunion,allvaguelypatternedontheEUandrathertransparentlyintendedtocreatearegional
counterweighttoit.InPutinswords,theEurasianunionwouldbecomeapowerfulsupranationalassociationcapable
ofbecomingoneofthepolesinthemodernworldareferencetothelong-standingRussianpreferencefora
multipolarinternationalsystemandrejectionoftheU.S.-dominatedunipolarworld.39
PutinspolicyofEurasianintegrationstoodindirectconflictwiththeEUsEuropeanNeighborhoodPolicy,whichis
intendedtobringcountriesontheEUseasternbordersclosertoitbyofferingthemAssociationAgreements.40These
agreementsaredesignedtopromotepolitical,economic,andrule-of-lawreformsincountriesofEasternEuropeand
encouragetheircloserpoliticalandcommercialtiestotheEU.SeveralEasternEuropeancountriesArmenia,Georgia,
Moldova,andUkrainewereintheprocessofnegotiatingAssociationAgreementswiththeEUwhenPutin
announcedhisvisionofEurasianintegration.Ukrainewasthelargestamongthemandstrategicallythemostimportant
forRussia.
ThegovernmentofUkrainethesecondmostpopulousformerSovietrepublicandthecriticalbridgebetweenRussia
andEuropewasengagedintwosimultaneousnegotiations.OnewaswithRussiaaboutjoiningitseconomic
integrationprojecttheotherwaswiththeEUaboutanAssociationAgreement.Withthetwodeemedincompatible,
Kyivwouldeventuallyhavetochooseoneortheother.41
ForRussia,forPutinpersonally,thelossofUkrainetotheEUwouldnotbeatolerableoutcome.Thiswasdueto
severalreasons.In2004,PutinscandidateforthepresidencyofUkraine,ViktorYanukovych,wasdefeatedbythe
OrangeRevolutionencouragedbytheWest.AnotherdefeatofsimilarmagnitudeatthehandsoftheEUwasnotan
optionfortheRussianpresidentafterhehadelevatedEurasianintegrationtothetopofhispolicyagendaasa
counterweighttotheUnitedStatesandtheEU.
Moreover,allformerSovietsatellitesthathadjoinedtheEUalsojoinedNATO.UkrainesAssociationAgreementwith
theEUwasundoubtedlyseenbytheKremlinasasteptowardmembershipintheEUand,eventually,inNATO.This
wouldallowNATOspresencewithin300milesofMoscow.AsseenfromMoscow,thiswouldalsomeanthatkey
UkrainiandefenseenterprisesthatsuppliedtheRussianmilitarywithcriticalcomponentswouldbelocatedonNATO
territory.42
AnothersignificantdependenceofRussiaonUkrainehastodowithenergysuppliestoEurope.Ukraineisthecritical
transitcountry,withasmuchashalfofRussiangasexportedtoEuropedeliveredthroughtheDruzhbapipelinethat
crossesUkraine.43U.S.andEuropeanleadershavelongcomplainedaboutEuropesdependenceonRussiangasand
theinfluenceitgivesMoscowoverthecontinent.SomehavearguedforNATOtotakeonthemissionofsecuring
Europesenergysupply.44ForRussia,theprospectofUkrainejoiningNATOorbecomingasatelliteoftheEUwould
translateintoanunacceptablelossofpowerandinfluence.
Notwithstandingallthesestrategicconsiderations,thecrisisinUkraineapparentlycameasasurprisefortheKremlin.45
TheseverityofitsresponsetothecrisistheannexationofCrimea,thewarineasternUkraine,thevirulentpolitical
propagandacampaignagainstthenewgovernmentofUkraineandtheWestforsupportingit,andthedestructionofthe
entirepostColdWarEuropeansecuritysystemreflecttheperceptionsofthreatassociatedbyRussiannational
securityelitewiththepotentiallossofUkrainetoNATOandtheEU.
TheNewOldThreat
TheshockwavesinEurope,intheUnitedStates,andaroundtheperipheryofRussiafromRussianactionsinUkraine
(andsubsequentlyinSyria)haveamountedtoafundamentalreassessmentofRussia,itsmilitarycapabilities,andits
resolvetousethem.46TheperceptionofRussiaasasecond-ratepower,whosemilitarycapabilitieswerebadly
damagedbytheimplosionoftheSovietstateandneverrecovered,hasbeenreplacedwithnewlyalarmedassessments
oftheRussianmilitarythreatnotseenbyWesternpublicsinageneration.47EventheRussianNavy,longwrittenofffor
deadasapresenceinthehighseas,isthesubjectofanew,widelypublicizedreportbytheU.S.OfficeofNaval
Intelligence.48
Indeed,theswiftandapparentlyefficienttakeoverofCrimea,themilitaryinterventionandcovertoperationineastern
Ukraine,andmostrecentlythemissioninSyriahavehadatransformationaleffectontheimageoftheRussianmilitary
abroadandathome.However,withtheseaccomplishmentsonandoffthebattlefieldcameaseriesofsoberingRussian
reassessmentsofthenewsecurityenvironmentsurroundingRussiainpost-postColdWarEuropeandEurasia.
Paradoxically,Russianmilitarysuccesseshaveresultedinnewthreatsandnewchallenges,andtheyhavegenerateda
profoundfeelingofuneaseamongRussianmilitaryexperts.ThreatassessmentsfoundinofficialRussiandocuments,
statementsoftopofficials,andprivate-sectorcommentatorsdescribeauniformlybleakpicture.Inthewordsofone
authoritativeobserver,EuropesfailuretosecureitselfbehindabufferzoneestablishedwiththehelpoftheEUs
EasternPartnership,whichincludesArmenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia,Moldova,andUkraine,hasmeantthat
Russiacannothidebehindabufferzoneeither.49Russiacannolongercountonthesecountriesasfriendlyandcapable
ofshieldingRussiaswesternandsouthernborders.
RussiaandcentersforcybersecurityandinformationwarfareintheBalticstatesmakeupthenewthreatenvironment
Russiandefenseplannersarehavingtoconfront.Andthatisnoteventhecompletelist,whichomitsawiderangeofreal
andpotentialthreatsfromtheself-proclaimedIslamicStatespresenceinIraqandSyriatoJapansnewlegislation
governingtheuseofitsSelf-DefenseForcesabroad.Thisisthenewthreatenvironmentinwhichthearmedforcesof
theRussianstatehavetocarryouttheirmissionofdefendingandprotectingthesovereigntyoftheRussianstate,noted
DefenseMinisterSergeiShoigu,appearingbeforetheyear-endmeetingofseniorMinistryofDefenseofficialsattended
byPutin.50
themes.51ThedocumentidentifiedtheUnitedStatesanditsalliesastheprincipalthreattoRussia,astheWestseeksto
hangontoitsdominantpositionintheworld.NATOenlargementcontinuesapace,withtheallianceaspiringtoaglobal
mission.NATO,accordingtothenewdocument,underminesinternationalsecurity,internationallaw,andarms-control
treatiesacquiresnewmilitarycapabilitiesanddeploysitsmilitaryinfrastructureeverclosertotheterritoryofthe
RussianFederation,threateningitssecurity.InUkraine,thedocumentcontinues,NATOandtheEUhavesupportedan
unconstitutionalcoupthattriggeredaprofoundsplitinUkrainiansocietyandresultedinanewsourceofinstabilityin
Europe.
intelligence,GeneralIgorSergun.52Writingin2015,heassertedthatthelong-termU.S.goalwastoencircleRussia
andChinawitharingofregimesloyaltotheUnitedStatesandflashpointsthatwouldreliablypreventRussiafrom
carryingoutitsEurasianintegrationproject.
FromthepointofviewofMoscow,NATOsreinforcementsoftheBalticstatesandPolandtodateandinthefuture
havebrokenyetanotherkeypromisegiventoRussiabythealliesnottostationpermanentlysubstantialcombat
forcesontheterritoriesofnewmembers.Regardlessofthecaveatthatthepromisewasconditionedonthecurrent
andforeseeablesecurityenvironment,whichwasupendedbytheannexationofCrimeaandaggressionineastern
UkrainetherecanbelittledoubtthatthereinforcementsareperceivedbyRussiasnationalsecurityestablishmentas
itsworstexpectationscomingtrue.53Whetherthesereinforcementswillconstituteapermanentorpersistentpresenceis
likelytobeoflittleconsequenceforRussiananalysts,foreitheronewouldconstituteacontinuousandineffect
permanentmilitarypresenceofNATOtroopsintheseforwardareas.
ItstheEconomy...
spokesmen,iscompoundedbytheunenviablestateofitseconomy.54Gonearethehighratesofgrowthtypicalofthe
firsttwotermsofthePutinpresidencythatmadepossibletherecoveryofthecountryseconomichealthaswellasits
internationalstandingandmilitarycapabilities.TheinabilityoftheRussianeconomytocompeteintheglobal
marketplaceanditsrelianceontheoldmodelofdevelopmentbasedonexportsofrawmaterialshavebeenelevatedin
thenewnationalsecuritystrategytotherankofthemainstrategicthreatsto[Russias]nationalsecurityinthesphereof
theeconomy.55ThetasknowbeforeRussianpolicymakersistodevelopanewmodelofeconomicgrowth,forthe
oldonehasoutliveditsusefulness.ThisthemehasbeenstressedbytopofficialsinRussia,includingKremlinChiefof
StaffSergeiIvanov,who,withcandorrareforaseniorKremlinofficial,admittedthatthecountryseconomicwoes
wereduelargelytofailuretoreformduringthefatyears.56SecurityCouncilSecretaryNikolaiPatrushev,too,has
stressedtheneedtojump-starttheRussianeconomyasamatterofnationalsecurity.57
FromthepointofviewofMoscow,NATOsreinforcementsof
theBalticstatesandPolandhavebrokenyetanotherkey
Russianforeignpolicyandnationalsecurityexpertsfromresearchinstitutesandacademiahaveechoedthesamesense
ofalarmaboutnewchallengesfacingRussiaasfoundinofficialgovernmentstatementsanddocuments.Theyhave
stressedtheincreasinglychaotic,seeminglyall-against-allnatureoftheinternationalsystemandtheweakeningofthe
maincentersofglobalpower,includingtheUnitedStatesandEurope.58However,thatishardlyacausefor
celebration,forRussiaisfindingitselfwithoutreliablepartnersinthissituation(therelationshipwithChinaistreatedwith
cautioninthiscontexttimewilltellhowitturnsout).59AsaresultoftheUkrainecrisisandthebreakwiththeWest,
Russiahasbeenleft,asCarnegiesDmitriTreninputit,aloneagainstall.60
crisis.61Thebiggestblowwasdealtbythecollapseinoilpricesandtheendoftheglobalcommoditiesboom.Making
mattersworsewasacombinationofshrinkingGDP,chroniclackofinvestment,currencydevaluation,lossofaccessto
Westerncapitalmarkets,andhighinflation.Thepoliticalenvironmentwasnobetter,duetotheescalationofmilitary
activitiesabroad,theintensifyingcrackdownontheopposition,andthemurderofoppositionpoliticianBorisNemtsov.
Takentogether,thesewereallsignsoffundamentalproblemsforapoliticalleadershipthatwassteadfastlyresisting
comprehensivereforms.Stagnationandthefailuretocarryoutfar-reachingeconomic,political,andtechnological
modernizationcouldhavemajorsecurityimplications.Withoutreforms,Karaganovwarnedatthegatheringofthe
establishmentCouncilonForeignandDefensePolicy,defeatawaits[Russia]inthefuturepolitical,economic,and
military-strategiccompetitionofthetwenty-firstcentury.62HermanGref,theheadofthemajoritystate-ownedbiggest
RussianbankSberbank,echoedthesewordsinearly2016,when,speakingatapublicgatheringofeconomistsand
seniorgovernmentofficials,hedescribedRussiaasalosercountry.63
NoLightattheEnd
TheseandothersimilarlygloomyassessmentsthathavepermeatedtheentirespectrumofRussianpoliticalopinion,
fromofficialgovernmentdocumentsandestablishmentfigurestoscholarsatresearchinstitutionstooppositionfigures,
pointtoaprofoundsenseofinsecurityinRussiasestablishmentcircles.64Goneistheconfidenceofthefirsttwo
presidentialtermsofVladimirPutin.TheearlybravuraresponsetoWesternsanctionsanddeclarationsthatRussian
industrycanmorethanmakeupforthelossofimportedgoodsandgrowthankstoimportsubstitutionandthecheaper
Russianrublehavebeenderidedasdelusional.65Someofthemostalarmistcommentatorsgosofarastoclaimthatthe
Russianeconomyisbackslidingintothecategoryofindustrialandevenpreindustrialeconomies,rapidlyfallingbehindto
thepointwhereonedayitcouldceasetobeanindependentactorintheinternationalarena.66Asasignofthe
prevailinggloomamongRussianeconomicanalysts,includingseniorgovernmentofficials,theendofthecurrent
economiccrisis,whichsomebelieveRussiaisalreadyapproaching,maynotleadtogrowthinstead,inthewordsofthe
firstdeputychairoftheCentralBankofRussia,XeniaYudayeva,itwillmarkthebeginningofeternalorlong-term
stagnation.67
ThisbriefoverviewofthenarrativeinofficialRussianoutletsandsocietaldiscoursepointstoalackofconfidenceon
thepartofRussianelitesintheirleadership,intheirownabilities,andinthecountrysfuture.Thetimesoftrouble,which
manyifnotmostRussiansoncethoughtwereleftbehindinthe1990s,appeartobeanythingbutsafelybehindthem.
RussianassessmentsofthepresentsituationinandaroundRussiacanbesummarizedinafewshortsentences:
TheRussianeconomyhasoutliveditsmodelofdevelopmentandcanatbeststagnateandstayfirmlylodgedin
themiddle-incometrapthepoliticalsystemisnotabletoaddressthetensionsthatarebuildingwithinsociety.
Russiahasnoreliablepartnersandisfacingavastlysuperioradversarywhoseeconomyismuchbiggerand
betterperformingthanRussiasandwhosemilitaryandtechnologicalcapabilitiesaretheenvyandthetargetof
Russiasownmilitaryreformanddefensemodernizationplans.
NotwithstandingtheimpressiverevivalofRussianmilitarycapabilitiesandthebattlefieldvictoriesinUkraine,Russian
assessmentsoftheRussianmilitaryhavebeenpermeatedbyadeepsenseofinferiorityvis--visNATO.An
authoritativeassessmentofferedbyaleadingRussianmilitaryanalystintheaftermathoftheactivephaseoftheconflict
ineasternUkrainedescribedthemilitaryconfrontationbetweenRussiaandUkraineasabattlebetweentwoobsolete
militaries,oneofwhich(Russias)wasbettertrained,equipped,andled.68
Ahypotheticalsimilarconflict,theanalysiscontinued,withparticipationbyvolunteersfromNATOcountrieswould
followaverydifferentscenario.TheRussianmilitarywouldfaceafarsuperiorenemy,onethatisbetterequipped,
bettertrained,betterled,andbettersustained.FromthesizeofNATOsgroundforcetosmartweaponsinitsarsenal
toitselectronicwarfarecapabilities,theRussianmilitarywouldbeoutnumbered,outgunned,outdone.Russiasonly
recourseinsuchcircumstances,theanalysisconcludes,istothreatentheadversarywithtacticalnuclearweapons.The
country,thearmy,andthenavyarenotyetreadyforalarge-scaleconventional-onlywar.69
ThissenseofvulnerabilitypermeatesRussianmilitarythinkingaboutfutureconflictsandthreatassessmentsasthey
pertaintoeverysphereofmilitaryactivityconventional,nuclear,cyberwar,andinformationwarfare.Noneofthisis
newandreflectslong-standingRussianandearlierSovietconcernsaboutthecountrysinferiormilitarycapabilities
whenstackedagainstNATOs.
conflictinEurope.70WidelyinterpretedinpubliccommentaryintheWestasevidenceofRussianaggressivenessand
militaristicambitions,thesestatementshavebeenechoedindomesticRussiandiscussionsabouttheroleofnuclear
weaponsinafuturewar.71
ThatwarwouldbefoughtagainsttheWest.Russia,writesSergeyBrezkun,professoroftheAcademyofMilitary
Sciences,needstodevelopitsownde-escalationladderinordertolimitafutureregionalconflictatanearlystage
andpreventitfromblowingupintoalarge-scalewar.72Russianleaders,helaments,havenotadequatelyaddressedthe
problemofregionaldeterrence,whichisbecomingallthemoreurgentbecauseofwhathecharacterizedasthe
weakeningofthepolitical-militarypositionsoftheRussianFederation,proliferationontheperipheryofRussiaof
hostileregimesmanipulatedbytheWest,andthedeclineofRussiasconventionalcapabilities.Inthesecircumstances,
theideaofmassivenuclearretaliationinresponsetoaregionalcrisisisirrationalandimpractical.Russianeedsoptions
forde-escalatingthecrisisinitsbeginningphasewiththehelpoflimitednuclearstrikesagainstkeyassetsoftheenemy,
butwithoutcatastrophicconsequences,aswellasnuclearweaponsspecificallydesignedforthispurpose.Such
limitednuclearstrikes,Brezkunargues,willhaveasoberingeffectontheenemy,whichwillthenceaseanddesist.
unimaginable,acombinationofNATOsconventional,nuclear,
andmissiledefensecapabilitiescouldprovedevastatingto
Russiasnucleararsenalanddenyittheabilitytodelivera
retaliatorystrike.
Russianmilitarystrategistslackofconfidenceintheirconventionalcapabilitiesisalong-standingphenomenonthat
predateseventhebreakupoftheSovietUnionandtheimplosionoftheRussianeconomyanditsdefense-industrial
sector.OneoftheearliestvoicestosoundalarmabouttheWestsemergingsuperiorconventionalcapabilitiesinthe
1970sand1980swasMarshalNikolayOgarkov,thechiefoftheGeneralStaff.73Thislackofconfidencemayappear
surprisingintheaftermathofRussianmilitaryreform,inthemidstofaten-yeardefensemodernizationprogram,
increaseddefensespending,andtheRussianarmysstringofsuccessfuloperations.Still,U.S.andotherNATO
countriesconventionalcapabilitiescontinuetoimpressRussianmilitaryobserversandfeedtheirinsecuritywithrespect
totheirown.
Butthisdeep-seatedfeelingofinsecuritycomparedwithNATOapparentlygoesbeyondtheconventionalsphereand
appliestoRussiasstrategicandtacticalnuclearcapabilitiesaswell.Intheworstpossiblecase,whichtoRussian
plannersisnotunimaginable,acombinationofNATOsconventional,nuclear,andmissiledefensecapabilitiescould
provedevastatingtoRussiasnucleararsenalanddenyittheabilitytodeliveraretaliatorystrike.Facedwiththishighly
improbableprospect,Russianmilitaryplannershavetoconsiderfirst-useoptionsasade-escalatorymeasurethatwill
persuadetheenemyofthefutilityofitsactions.Otherwise,ifnuclearweaponsarenotusedearlyinaconflictforthe
purposeofendingit,Russiamaynotbeabletousethematallandbedefeated.
ThesamelackofconfidenceinRussianretaliatorycapabilitiesisapparentinRussiandiscussionsabouttheneedfora
doomsdaymachinelikeschemetoensureamassiveretaliatorystrikeintheeventofadevastatingattackonRussia
discussionsreminiscentofStanleyKubricksDr.Strangelovecharacter.74Inanapparentlydeliberateleak,Russian
mediarevealedtheexistenceofahigh-yieldunmannednucleartorpedothatcouldbelaunchedasaretaliatoryweapon
againstamajorU.S.coastalurbancenterandwouldresultinmassivehumanlossandeconomicdevastation.75Another
proposalcalledforRussiatousemassivenuclearchargestotriggercatastrophictsunamis,volcaniceruptions,or
earthquakesthatwouldcausedevastationoflargeareasoftheUnitedStatesalongtheWestcoast.76
RussianmilitaryplannersconcernsaboutthethreatofU.S.missiledefensestotheirretaliatorycapabilitieslongpredate
thedecisionsbytheadministrationsofObamaandhispredecessorasU.S.president,GeorgeW.Bush,todeploy
missiledefensesintheUnitedStatesandEurope.Someanalystshavegonesofarastosaythatformerpresident
RonaldReagansStrategicDefenseInitiative(commonlycalledStarWars)inthe1980swasresponsiblefor
convincingtheSovietPolitburothattheUnitedStatesenjoyedvastmilitary-technologicalsuperiority.Notonlycouldthe
UnitedStateslaunchasurpriseattackontheSovietUnion,theseanalystsconcluded,butitcouldalsoacquirethe
meansofdenyingtheSovietUnionthecapabilityofdeliveringaretaliatorystrike.77Thearmsrace,inotherwords,
couldnotbewon,andthatinturnledtotheendoftheColdWar.78
RussianconcernsaboutU.S.missiledefensecapabilitiesthusappeartohavedeeproots.Theyhavebeenrestatedwith
surprisingcandorbyRussianofficials.RussianMinistryofForeignAffairsSpecialEnvoyGrigoryBerdennikov,replying
toaquestioninFebruary2015aboutfuturearmscontrol,said,
Onehastounderstandthatnuclearweaponsarenotsomethingthatstandsalone,theyarepartofthestrategic
balance.Tomoveaheadwithnuclearweaponsreductions,itisnecessarytotakeintoaccountotherfactors
firstofall,thefactoroftheglobalmissiledefensesystem,whichtheAmericans,despiteall[our]arguments,
stubbornlydonotwanttodiscusswithus....
Theentiresystemofmutualrelationsinthenuclearsphereisbasedondeterrence.Inotherwords,youhaveto
havethecapability,havingsurvivedthefirststrike,toretaliate,andinsuchawaythattheretaliatorystrikeis
soterriblethatnobodywoulddaretolaunchthefirstone.Ifaneffectivemissiledefensesystemappears,then
someonemayhavetheillusionthatmostoftheweaponsoftheenemycanbedestroyedinthefirststrikeand
therestcanbemoreorlessintercepted.Thesmalleryourarsenal,theeasieritistointerceptwhatsleftafter
thefirststrike.Andwearebeingtold[bytheAmericans],Wellcontinuetodevelopthesedefensivesystems,
butletusreducefurthertheoffensivesystems.Forwhat?Tohaveafirmguaranteethatthesecondstrikewill
beintercepted,tohavethefreedomtolaunchthefirststrike?Isthatwhywearedoingallthis?79
Russianconcernsandcandorarenotlimitedtothenuclearsphere.Continuinghispointaboutthefallacyoftreating
nuclearweaponsasastand-alonecapability,Berdennikovsaid,
Wearepreparedforadialogueaboutfurthernucleardisarmamentsteps.Atthesametime,weareconvinced
thattheyareimpossiblewithoutsolvingsuchproblemsastheunlimitedgrowthofglobalU.S.missiledefenses,
theprojectofusingstrategicweaponswithconventionalwarheadswithintheconceptofglobalstrike,...
therefusaloftheUnitedStatestopledgenottodeployweaponsinspace,[and]thegrowthofqualitativeand
quantitativeconventionalimbalances.80
weaponscontinuetoperforminthedefenseoftheRussianstate.81Athreattothoseweaponsisathreattothesurvival
ofanindependentandsovereignRussianstate.
NewThreats
TheexpandingrangeofU.S.strategiccapabilitiesnuclear,high-precisionandlong-rangeconventional,andmissile
defensehasbeenamajorpreoccupationofRussianmilitaryanalysts.82Russianconcernaboutthesecapabilitiesis
reflectedincandidstatementsaboutthethreattheypose,aswellasreassurancesthatRussianstrategicsystemsare
robust,reliable,andimpervioustoU.S.offensiveordefensivearsenals.83
Theconversationaboutthechangingnatureofwarfare,therolesofnuclearandnon-nuclearweapons,anddeterrence
hasbeenunderwayamongRussianexpertsandmilitaryofficialsfordecades,beginningwiththewritingsofOgarkov.
ThisconversationreflectsthedeepconvictionamongRussiananalystsandplannersthatRussiahasfallenfarbehindthe
UnitedStatesinthedevelopmentofhigh-precisionconventionalweaponryandnon-nucleardeterrentcapabilities.84It
alsoreflectstheirviewthatgradually,theperformancecharacteristicsofnon-nuclear,high-precisionweaponsare
improvingsomuchthattheycouldbegintotakeonthefunctionsthatuntilnowhavebeenassignedexclusivelyto
nuclearweapons.85Asaresult,thetaskfacingtheRussianmilitaryofdeterringsuperioradversariesequippedwithsuch
systemsisincreasinglychallenging.86
invincibleandcapableofreliablydefendingagainstanddeterring
anyenemy,Russiandefenseexpertsappeartoharbordoubts.
TheranksofRussianmilitaryanalystsincludeanumberofskepticswhodoubtnotsomuchtherelativestateofaffairsin
thedevelopmentofU.S.andRussianarsenalsasthepropositionthatconventionalhigh-precisionsystemswillbeable
totakeovermissionsassignedtonuclearsystems.87TheseskepticsbelievethattheprincipalthreattoRussiasnuclear
deterrentandretaliatorycapabilitiesisposedbyU.S.nuclearsystemsandthatpriorityshouldbegiventoprograms
intendedtocounterthosesystems.However,eventheseskepticsconcludethatalthoughnon-nuclear,precision-guided
weaponscannotsupplantnuclearweapons,theycanaffectthestrategicbalanceinsignificantways.88
Tomeetthischallenge,Russiandefenseexpertscontinuetoemphasizenuclearweapons.Althoughmuchhasbeen
madeoftheseriesofRussianconventionalshipbornecruisemissilestrikesfromtheCaspianSeaagainsttargetsin
Syria,thesemuch-toutedcapabilitiesintheeyesofRussianexpertsareapparentlynotyetsufficienttodeterNATO
threatstoRussiainEurope.89
InSeptember2014,DmitryRogozin,thedeputyprimeministerinchargeofdefenseindustries,pledgedtomodernize
theentireRussianstrategicnuclearforcesby2020,notmerely70percentaspreviouslyplanned.90Accordingto
Shoigu,56percentofRussiannuclearweaponsarenew.91ThechiefoftheGeneralStaff,GeneralValeryGerasimov,
echoedRogozinsvowandreferredtoprioritydevelopmentofstrategicnuclearforcesastheMinistryofDefenses
mostimportanttask.92
However,despitetheseacceleratedprogramsandbravuraassurancesthatthenationsnuclearshieldisinvincibleand
capableofreliablydefendingagainstanddeterringanyenemy,Russiandefenseexpertsappeartoharbordoubtsthat
thesemeasuresaresufficient.93Thus,somehavesuggestedthatevendeployingIskandershort-rangeballisticmissiles,
capableofcarryingnuclearwarheads,toCrimeaandKaliningradmayproveinsufficienttodeterpotentialenemies.94
Instead,toaccomplishthatgoal,RussiamayhavetowithdrawfromtheIntermediate-RangeNuclearForcesTreaty
andreintroducethatclassofweaponsintoitsarsenal.95Russiancommentatorsmaintainthatsuchastepisbeing
contemplatedbecauseofthecombinedthreatofNATOmissiledefenseinEuropeandtheacquisitionofintermediate-
rangemissilesbyPakistan,India,andIran.96
OfficialstatementsofferassurancesthatRussiawillusenuclearweaponsonlyintwocircumstances:inretaliationfora
strikeagainstitoritsalliesusingnuclearweaponsorsomeotherformofweaponsofmassdestructionorifRussiaisa
victimofanaggressionthatusesconventionalweaponsbutthreatenstheverysurvivaloftheRussianstate.97However,
RussiandefensepolicydiscussionsrevealthatseniorRussiandefenseplannersalsocontemplateanothercontingency:
launchingpreventivenuclearstrikes,whetherofalimitednatureintendedtode-escalateaconflictoronalargerscale.98
ThiscouldamounttoyetanothertacitadmissionofRussiandefenseplannerslackofconfidenceintheirsecond-strike
capability.Iftheydontusetheirnuclearweapons,inotherwords,theylosethem.
NuclearweaponscertainlyarethecriticalelementofRussiandefensepolicyandwillremainsoforalongtime.Russian
defenseexpertsandofficialsreadilyadmitthattheirindustrialandtechnologicalinferioritywillpreventthemfrom
matchingU.S.advancedmilitarytechnologiesintheforeseeablefuture.99Thisundoubtedlyfeedstheiralreadydeeply
heldfeelingofinsecurityandinferiorityvis--vistheWest,whichisonlyreinforcedbytheproliferationofnew
technologiesandcapabilitiesfordifferentformsofwarfare.
AsifU.S.nuclear,high-precisionconventional,andmissiledefensetechnologieshavenotbeenenoughtofuelanxieties
ofRussiandefenseplanners,theadventofcyberwarfarehasaddedtotheirsenseofinsecurity.Thisisnottosaythat
Russiahasnotsustaineditsownvastcyberwarfareeffortorinvestedpriortotheadventofcybertechnologyinwhat
Russiandefenseexpertscallradio-electronicwarfareorinformationwarfare.Ithas.However,theinformation
revolutionanduniversalcomputerizationofeverysphereofstateandsocietalactivityhascreatedamultitudeofnew
threats.
Theworldisenteringanewphaseofwarfare,accordingtoRussiandefenseexperts,whoassertthatcyberwarfareis
nolongerawarofthefuture.100Itistakingplacenowanew,fifthdomain,alongwithland,air,sea,andspace,in
whichwarcanandwillbewaged.Cyberwarfaretakesprecedenceoverkineticwarfareandisbeingundertakenby
statescontinuously.Theboundarybetweenwarandpeaceisbeinggraduallyerased.CyberwarfarecanthreatenRussia
inawidevarietyofways,fromparalyzinganddestroyingitsinfrastructuretodisablingitscomputernetworksor
insertingdeliberatelyfalseinformationanddisseminatingittothepopulation.AccordingtoRussianexperts,the
destructivepotentialofcyberweaponsiscomparabletothatofnuclearweapons.101Cyberweaponscancreatepanic,
plungesocietiesintochaos,underminelegitimategovernments,suppressanationswilltoresistaggression,and
paralyzeitsarmedforces.Theycanwinwarsbeforeeventhefirstshotisfired.102Understandingtheconsequencesof
thisformofwarfareisofutmostimportancefortheRussianmilitary,whichhasalreadybegunthiseffort.103
InformationwarfarehaslongbeenamajorareaofinterestandconcernforRussiannationalsecurityofficials.The
RussianSecurityCounciladoptedtheDoctrineofInformationSecurityofRussianFederationasearlyas2000and
sincethenhasdevelopedawholelibraryofsupportingdocumentstoguideRussianpolicyinthissphere.104Sincethen,
Russianconcernsaboutthreatsposedbyoffensiveoperationsofcyberwarandinformationwarhaveincreased
manifold,andtheissuehasbeenactivelydiscussedamongdefenseandsecurityexperts.105The2016NationalSecurity
Strategystatesthatintheinterestofprotectingstateandpublicsecurity,thegovernmentwillundertakethenecessary
stepstoimprovetheprotectionofcitizensandsocietyfromtheeffectsofdestructiveinformationpropagatedby
extremistsandterroristorganizations,foreignintelligenceservices,andpropagandaoutlets.106
ThesensitivityandurgencyofthepotentialthreattoRussiafromthecyberdomainwasunderscoredin2014whenPutin
declaredGoogleaspecialprojectoftheU.S.CentralIntelligenceAgencyandurgedRussianstoavoidusingit.The
RussianleaderscommentsaboutU.S.controloftheInternet,combinedwiththeRussiangovernmentslong-term
pursuittoestablishsovereigncontroloverRussiasportionoftheInternet,reflecttheinsecuritynotonlyoftheelites
butalsoofthegeneralpublicaboutthecountrysvulnerabilitytocyberattacksandinformationattacksfromadversaries,
bothrealandimagined.107ThisinsecuritygoessofarastomotivatetheRussiangovernmenttoseekwaystocontrol
theRussianInternetandevenconsiderwaystoineffectunplugRussiafromtheInternetinanemergency.108Sovereign
controloverRussiasportionoftheInternethasbeenalong-standinggoaloftheRussiangovernmentspositionin
internationalforumsdealingwithInternetgovernanceagoalthathasservedasanelementofRussian-Chinese
partnershipinoppositiontoU.S.andotherWesternnationspursuitofthefreeflowofinformationwithoutborders.109
Inthefuture,theRussiangovernmentspursuitofcapabilitiestoregulateand,ifnecessary,switchofftheInternetis
expectedtointensifyasitconsidersafreeandunimpededInternetasoneofitsbiggestthreats.110
IntheviewofRussiannationalsecurityexperts,thefuturehasarrived.TheeffectonRussiahasbeentoaggravateits
senseofencirclement,compounditsvulnerabilities,andmultiplythreatstoit.
WarbyOtherMeans
ThedeteriorationofthisperceivedthreatenvironmentintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisishasspawnedadiscussion
amongRussiannationalsecurityexpertsaboutvariousformsofnonkinetic,nonstopwarfarewagedbytheWestagainst
Russiaeveninpeacetime.Inadditiontoinformationwarandcyberwarfare,theyhavefocusedonWesterneconomic
sanctionsagainstRussiaasaformofcontinuous,undeclaredwarfare.
TheKremlinsresponsetosanctionscanbesummedupasamovetowardeconomicnationalismandisolationism.
WhenVisaandMasterCardcutoffservicestotwoRussianbanksthatweresanctionedbytheUnitedStates,themove
highlightedfortheRussiangovernmenttheeconomysheavyrelianceonWesternpaymentsystemsanditsresulting
vulnerabilitytofurtherWesternsanctions.Inresponse,theCentralBankofRussiahasannouncedaplantocreatea
nationalpaymentsystemtoinsulateRussiafromWesternpressureintheeventofanewroundofsanctions.111The
morerecentthreattocutoffRussianaccesstoSWIFT(SocietyforWorldwideInterbankFinancial
Telecommunication)hasledtheRussiangovernmenttoconsideroptionsforsettingupanalternativeinpartnershipwith
China.112
Thedefense-industrialsectorhasbeendirectedtodiminishandeventuallyeliminateitsrelianceonforeignsuppliers.113
Thedesiretoenddependenceonforeignsuppliersisnotlimitedtothedefensesector,forinMay2016,Putintasked
thecabinetwithstimulatingdomesticmanufacturinganddevelopingsubstitutesforforeignimportsthroughoutthe
economy.Inafurthermovetoinsulatetheeconomyfromforeigninfluence,Putinorderedthegovernmenttodevelop
andimplementstepsfordeoffshorizationofmajorindustrialenterprisesbydevelopingtax,accounting,andcriminal
legislationaimedatdiscouragingcompaniesfromlocatingfacilitiesoffshore.114
TheideathatsanctionsrepresentaformofwarfareoraninstrumentofcoercionishardlyneworuniquetoRussia.It
hasalonghistory,andrecordeddiplomacyandwarfarearerepletewithexamplesofitdatingallthewaytoancient
Greece.115Nonetheless,Westernsanctionsandtheeconomicslumpthathasfollowedtheirimpositionalthough
causednotonlybythemundoubtedlyhaveunderscoredRussiasvulnerabilitytooutsideforcesandthehostile
environmentaroundit.
ThetakeoverofCrimeabytheRussianmilitaryand,subsequently,theoperationsineasternUkrainehavefocusedthe
attentionofforeignandRussianobserversonso-calledhybridwarfare.Thisterm,whichreferstoawiderangeof
kineticandnonkineticactivitiesbymilitarypersonnelandcivilians,hasbeenthesubjectofextensivediscussionsin
RussiaasbothathreattoRussiansecurityandRussiasresponsetothreatstoitposedbyhostilepowers.
Ukraine,whichentailsamixofspecialforces,civilians,informationoperations,cyberattacks,and,onsomeoccasions,
uniformedmilitarypersonnel.116Presumably,acombinationofthesecapabilitiesinacrisisenvironmentcanbeusedto
achievesurpriseandconfusetheadversaryandtoaccomplishpoliticalandmilitaryobjectiveswithoutresortingto
large-scalekineticwarfareandanoutrightwardeclaration,whichinturncanpresentanadversarywithafaitaccompli
andavoidunnecessarycasualtiesandescalationofhostilitiesforRussia.CountriesthatshareborderswithRussia,
especiallytheBalticstates,someofwhichhavelargeRussianpopulations,areespeciallyvulnerabletothistypeof
warfare,Westernofficialshavewarned.117
aggression,thusrunningtheriskofconfusionandcontroversyamongtheallieswithrespecttomilitaryactionindefense
oftheBalticstatesinaccordancewiththealliancesArticle5guarantees.
RussiandefenseexpertsalsochargethattheWestisconductinghybridwarfareagainstRussiathroughacombinationof
militaryandothermeans,includingsanctionsandinformationwarfare.118Theirinterpretationofhybridwarfare
underscoresthedestabilizingfunctionoftheWestsdemocracypromotionactivitiesspecificallythecolorrevolutions
inthecountriessurroundingRussia.InRussiasview,thoseactivities,throughmeasureswellshortofwar,createazone
ofinstabilityaroundRussia,encircleitwithWesternagentsofinfluence,andcreateopportunitiesforWestern
intervention.119Moreover,instabilitythreatensnotonlyRussiasneighborsbutalsoRussiaitself,becausesupportfor
groupsinsideRussiaopposedtotheRussiangovernmentcanalsobeinterpretedasanelementofhybridwarfare.120
Large-scalewarfarehasbecomedangerous,evensuicidal,forthepartiesinvolved,duetothedestructionassociated
withitwithorwithoutnuclearweapons.Andthatinturnnecessitatesresortingtootherformsofwarfarethatcarry
smallerrisksofcatastrophicconsequences.
SomeRussiandefenseanalystshavearguedthatdespitethepublicitysurroundingthetermhybridwarfaresincethe
startoftheconflictinUkraine,theconceptisneithernewnorparticularlytransformative.121Forexample,theynote,
informationoperationshavelongbeenacriticalelementofstatesactivitiesintendedtomisleadanadversaryand
demoralizeitspopulationandcombatants.Deploymentofmilitarypersonnelwithoutnationalinsigniaisalong-standing
practiceinwarfare,asistheuseofproxiesandregularforcesundertheguiseofvolunteers.Theargumentaboutthe
noveltyofhybridwarfarethusdoesnotstanduptoscrutinyandiscontradictedbyalongandrichhistoricalrecordof
variousconflicts.122
TheRussiangovernmentsapproachtodealingwithUkraine-relatedsanctionsimposedbytheUnitedStatesandthe
EuropeanUnionisindicativeofwhatRussianbehaviorcanbeexpectedtobelikeinfuturecrises.Byfocusingonsome
oftheweakerandpoorerEUandNATOmembersGreeceorBulgaria,forinstanceRussianofficialshave
apparentlysoughttounderminebothorganizationsconsensusonsanctionsagainstRussia.123Similarly,thereported
financialtiesbetweenFrancesfar-rightNationalFrontandaMoscow-basedbankarelikelyintendedtosecurea
RussianfootholdinFrenchdomesticpoliticsandtoseektoinfluenceFrenchpolicy.124Politicalpartiesandindividual
politiciansandofficialsintheCzechRepublic,Germany,andLatviahaveallbeentargetedbytheRussian
government.125
reconnaissance,andvariousothermilitary,paramilitary,andcivilianpersonnelareallfairgame.Corruption,blackmail,
relianceoncriminalnetworks,andoverteconomicassistanceareallfairgameasmeansofpreparingthebattlefieldor
achievingpoliticalobjectivesbeforethefirstshotisfired.
ABleakOutlook
TheprofoundsenseofinsecuritythatpermeatesRussiandiscussionsaboutthecountryspositioninEuropeandEurasia
iswelljustified.TherearemanyuncertaintiesinRussiasfuture,aswellasinthoseofitsneighbors,potentialpartners,
allies,andadversaries.However,thoseuncertaintiesdisappearwhenitcomestothisprediction:theabilitiesofRussian
leaders,militaryplanners,anddiplomatswillbethoroughlytestedintheyearsanddecadestocomeasafunctionofthe
difficultgeopoliticalenvironmentandmultiplechallengesthecountryisfacingathome.
PredictingthetrajectoryofRussiaisaninherentlydifficulttask.FewpredictedthebreakupoftheSovietUnionbefore
itunraveledrapidly.Fewpredictedthatthecountrywoulddissolverelativelypeacefully.Fewpredictedtheeconomic
calamitythatfollowed,therecoveryofRussiaadecadelater,theeconomicboomthatfollowed,theprotestsof2012,
thewarwithUkraine,andthevirulentlyanti-WesternturninRussiandomesticandforeignpolicies.Allofthesemajor
shiftsoccurredintheshorthistoricallyspeakingspanoftwenty-fiveyears.
Russiaintoaseriesofsmallerstates,someofthemwithnuclearweaponsontheirterritoriesanotherwarintheSouth
CaucasusanewrapprochementwiththeWestnecessitatedbytheneedformodernization,economicaid,andhelp
consolidatingnuclearweaponsinwhatsleftofRussiaproper.Andallofthesecouldbefollowedbytheriseofa
nationalistRussianregimebentongatheringthelostempireandreconstitutingthegreatRussianstate,triggeringyet
anotherconflictwithbothimmediateneighborsandtheWest.
Insum,noforecastofRussiasfuturecanbereducedtoastraightline.Russiahastoexploremultiplepossibilities.Ithas
toconsiderpossibilitiesthatareliterallystrangerthanfiction.Andthenithastocautionthereadertotakeallwithabig
grainofsalt.
ConsideringthemanychangesinRussiainthepastquartercentury,itiseasytooverlookthefactthateventhoughthe
countryunderwentamajorpoliticalshockwhentheSovietUnionbrokeup,itspoliticalsystemisquitewellestablished.
DespitesignificantdifferencesbetweentheYeltsinera,thePutinpresidency,andtheMedvedevinterregnum,the
politicalsystemchangedlittle.DescribedearlyinitsdevelopmentbylongtimeRussiaexpertThomasGraham,ithas
remainedessentiallyanoligarchywithallthetrappingsofamoderndemocracy,butwithoutinternalideological
differencesandmotivatedonlybycompetitionforpropertyamongoligarchicgroupsorclans.126Atthecenterofthis
arrangementstandsapowerfulpresidentwhosemissionistomanagecompetitionamongclansandthusmaintain
domesticstability.
EstablishedearlyduringtheYeltsinpresidency,thissystemhassurvivedlargelyintact.Someclansandoligarchshave
departed,andothershavereplacedthem.Thepowerofthepresidencyhasincreasedordecreaseddependingonthe
personalityoftheincumbent.Butthroughitall,thesysteminitsessencehasremainedintact.Keyfeaturesofthissystem
apowerfulexecutive,thecloserelationshipbetweenpowerandproperty,theirconcentrationinthehandsofa
relativelysmallelite,thelackofarepresentativegovernment,andtheprevalenceoftherulingideologypredatethe
currentRussianregimeandhavetheirrootsintheSovietandimperialRussianperiods.Littleonthecountryspolitical
landscapesuggeststhatthesystemislikelytoundergosignificantchangesintheforeseeablefuture.Itmayundergo
somechangesonthemargins,butthereisnothinginRussiandomesticpoliticstoindicatethatamorerepresentative
formofgovernmentislikelytoemergeinthenexttentofifteenyears.Yet,changemayberequiredforthecountryto
overcomethemanyobstaclesfacingit.
StagnationLooms
In2016,wellintoPutinsthirdpresidentialterm,Russiafindsitselfconfrontedbyincreasinglybleakprospects.As
notedbymanyRussianobserversquotedinthispaper,theproblemisnotjustthatthepriceofoilisloworthatthe
sanctionsimposedbytheEUandtheUnitedStateshavehurttheRussianeconomy.Theentiremodelofeconomic
developmentpursuedbyRussiainthepastdecadeandahalf,theobserversconclude,hasoutliveditself.
SomeRussiananalystshavenotedthesimilaritybetweenPutinsRussia,nowintheseventeenthyearoftheRussian
presidentstenureatthehelm,andtheSovietUnionduringtheeraofLeonidBrezhnev,wholedthecountryfor
eighteenyearsfrom1964to1982.127Then,too,theSovietUnionhadreachedadeadendandhadtoradicallychange
courseindomesticandforeignaffairs.
Russiasnextpresidentialelectionisscheduledin2018.Putin,whowillthenbesixty-fiveyearsold,willendhisthird
presidentialtermandwilleitherrunforyetanothersix-yeartermorstepasideeitherasatacticalmeasureorasamove
towardretirement.ThelikelihoodofPutinsteppingasideretiring,ratherthanasatacticalmoveappearslowatthe
timeofthiswriting.128
Moreover,Putinsdeparturefromthepoliticalstageshouldnotbeequatedwithimprovedprospectsforpoliticalor
economicmodernizationinRussia.Theupperechelonofthecountryspoliticaleliteiscomposedofpeoplewhose
outlooksandbackgroundsaresimilartoPutins.Theirprospectsforimplementingmajorchangesinthecountrys
politicalsystemoreconomyappearequallymodestatbest
IfPutinLeaves
electioninwhichanewleaderwouldbechosen.Thatishowtheprocessissupposedtoworkformally,andthereis
littlechancethatitwillnot.
Inreality,PutinsdeparturewouldholdthepossibilityofasignificantdestabilizationofRussianpolitics.Heoccupiesa
uniquelypowerfulplaceinthecountryspoliticalsystem,actingasthecentralfigureamongvariousinterestsgroupsand
clans,balancingtheircompetingdemandsandadjudicatingtheirdisputes.129NootherpoliticiancomesclosetoPutins
standinginthatsystem.Hehasnopoliticalheirorsecond-in-command.TheprimeministercurrentlyDmitry
Medvedevstepsintemporarilyifthepresidentisincapacitatedordiesinoffice,untilanewpresidentiselectedwithin
ninetydays.Few,ifany,politicalanalystswouldarguethatMedvedevisacrediblecandidateforthepresidencyto
succeedPutinorapowerfulfigureinRussiandomesticpolitics.
Intheabsenceofadesignatedpoliticalsuccessor,theprocessofnominatingacandidatefromthepoliticaleliteso-
calledthepartyofpowerwouldbehighlycontested,almostcertainlymoresothantheelectionitself.Suchintra-elite
strugglestookplaceduringthe20072008period,whenPutinssecondtermwasduetoexpirebuthehadnotyet
designatedhissuccessorormadeclearhisownplans.Similarly,in2011,Russianeliteswereunsettledbythelackof
clarityaboutthefutureoftheMedvedev-Putintandem.
ShouldPutindepartthepoliticalscenewithoutdesignatingasuccessor,therulingelitewouldhaveapowerfulincentive
inpreservingtheexistingsystemandavoidinganinternalsplit,thusincreasingthelikelihoodofcoalescingarounda
singlecandidate.Buttheprocessofselectingthatsinglecandidateislikelytobecontentious,resultinginafierce
competitionamongclansandinterestgroups.
decimatedasaresultofaseriesofsystematicmeasuresbythePutinadministrationtolimittheabilityofopposition
partiesandcivilsocietyatlargetoorganize,recruitmembers,raisefunds,orinanyotherwayparticipateinthepolitical
lifeofthecountry.Noseriouscontenderforthepresidencyabletocompetewiththeonenominatedbythepartyof
powerislikelytoemergefromtheranksoftheopposition.
However,theelectionwouldnotmarktheendofpoliticalinstabilityinRussia.Thenewleaderwouldhavetowork
hardtoconsolidatehis(mostlikelynother)powerandrestoretheequilibriumamongclansdisruptedbyPutins
departure.Thiswouldalmostcertainlybeaprocessthatwouldtakeyears,giventhesizeofthecountry,themultitudeof
itsclansandinterestgroups,regionalinterests,andthesorrystateoftheeconomythatwouldalmostcertainlyleadto
fiercecompetitionamongclansforalargershareoftheshrinkingpie.
Howlikelyisthecountrysnewpresidenttointroducemajorreformsindomesticorforeignaffairsinthatenvironment?
SuchreformsnotunliketheGorbachev-eradtentewiththeWestinforeignpolicyandmovementtoward
deregulationandmarketcapitalismwouldundoubtedlyprovecontroversialandpoliticallydifficult,fortheywould
affectinterestsofvariousclansvestedinthestatusquo.Anynewleaderwouldhavetotakethatintoaccount.Anew
leaderwouldalsohavetotakeintoaccountthefragilityoftheRussianeconomyandprobablybemindfulthat
Gorbachevsreformsendedincatastrophethebreakupofthecountry.Withthisbaggage,anynewleaderwould
likelyproceedwithextremecaution,ifatall.ThelikelyoutcomeofthisscenariowouldbeacontinuationofPutinism,
butwithoutPutin,fortheremainderofthisdecade,ifnotlonger.Changewouldhavetowaituntillater,perhapsuntilthe
successorssecondpresidentialterm.
Oncechangecomes,itcouldprovedestabilizing.AfutureRussianleaderlaunchingmajorreformsinthemiddleofthe
thirddecadeofthetwenty-firstcenturywouldhavetocontendwithamultitudeofchallenges,including
astagnanteconomy
highbarrierstodomesticandforeigninvestmentexcessivegovernmentregulation,weakruleoflaw,corruption,
andpoorinfrastructureand
gravitationalpolesChina,Turkey,Europewillcreatepowerfulcentrifugalforcesandgreatlycomplicatethetaskof
thefederalgovernmentofmanagingtheeconomyandpoliticalsystem.Russia,whichisorganizedasafederation,could
facesomeofthesameseparatisttendenciesthattheSovietUnionencounteredamongitsconstituentrepublicsinitsfinal
years.Alternatively,thiscouldresultinasignificantdelegationofpowerandauthoritytotheregions.Thepossibilityof
furtherfragmentationoftheRussianstatehastobeconsideredasoneofrealcontingenciestofaceRussiaattheendof
the2020s.
Putinsdeparturefromthepoliticalsceneattheendofthecurrenttermdoesnotguaranteethathissuccessorwould
undertakesignificantreformsindomesticorforeignpolicy.However,shouldsuchreformsbeattempted,theycould
resultinasignificantdestabilizationofRussia.
IfPutinStays
TheprospectofPutinsreelectiontoafourthpresidentialtermin2018raisesthecriticalquestionofwhetherheis
capableofchange.Putinsreturntothepresidencyin2012provedasetbackforRussiasreformersandadvocatesof
modernizationafteraperiodwhenprospectsforeconomicandpoliticalmodernizationlookedrelativelybright.Since
2012,theyhavedimmedconsiderably,andintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisistheyappeartobenearlyextinguished.
Theneedforchangeinthecountryseconomicandpoliticallifecloselyrelatedtoeachotheriswidelyunderstood
andacknowledgedinRussiansociety.Itisequallywidelyunderstoodthatsignificantchangecouldprovedestabilizing
fortheestablishedpoliticalsystem.Asmentioned,theexperienceoftheGorbachev-erareformscontinuestoserveasa
potentcautionaryreminderofthedangersassociatedwithradicalchange.
Putinhasfirmlyandrepeatedlyrejectedtheideaofpoliticalmodernizationasathreattothecountrysstability.His
entirethirdtermcanbedescribedasantimodernization,includingsuppressionofcivilsociety,isolationofRussiafrom
EuropeandtheUnitedStates,propagandaofso-calledtraditionalRussianvaluesasdifferentfromEuropeanvalues
andnorms,prouddeclarationsthatRussiaisnotEurope,andapushtoautarkyineconomicdevelopmenttoinoculate
thecountryfromthethreatofWesternsanctions.MovesbytheKremlintoassertthesupremacyofRussianlawsover
internationaltreatiessignedbyRussiaanddisconnectthecountryfromtheInternetaresymbolicofthe
antimodernizationspiritthathaspermeatedRussianpoliticsandpolicymakingsincePutinsreturntothepresidency.
Putinhasraisedtheissueofeconomicmodernizationinhisspeechesrepeatedly.However,hisrecordinofficesincehis
accessiontothepresidencyin2000ofconsistent,step-by-step,deliberateconsolidationofpoliticalpowerand
economicleversinthehandsofthestateorasmallgroupofassociatescloselytiedtothestatespeaksmuchlouder
thanhiswords.Ifheweretobecomeamodernizerlateinhispoliticalcareer,itwouldbearadicaldeparturefrom
everythinghehasdoneuntilnow.
Increasingly,economicmodernizationinRussiarequirespoliticalmodernizationaswell,andashiftfromthesmall,
Kremlin-centeredoligarchytoamoreopeneconomicsystemwithstrongerruleoflaw,transparency,andadegreeof
competitiveness.Thatwillrequirereformsthatwouldchallengetheverypoliticalorderthatforthepastdecadeanda
halfhasservedasthefoundationofRussiandomesticstabilityandPutinspersonalpowerandhasitsrootsinthe
systemthatemergedsoonafterthebreakupoftheSovietUnion.Theoutlookforachangeofsuchmagnitudeisnot
encouragingfortheforeseeablefuture.
Underthepresentconstitutionalarrangement,andassumingPutinisreelectedin2018,hewillremaininofficeuntil
2024.Hewillbeseventy-onethenstillrelativelyyoungandquiteplausiblynotreadytodepartthepoliticalstage.The
prospectofPutinremainingatthehelmasfaras2030isquitereal,justastheprospectofhischangingcourseisquite
remote.
ThisisnottosaythatRussiawillcontinueindefinitelyalongitspresentglidepath.Theabsenceofreformsandlackof
progresstowardmodernizingthecountryspoliticalsystemandeconomyareboundtotaketheirtollonitseconomy,its
politics,anditsinternationalstanding.Thisisalmostcertaintotriggerdiscontinuitiespolitical,security,andeconomic.
Thatsaid,anyattemptbyPutinorhissuccessortotacklethischallengeisfraughtwithsignificantrisksofdiscontinuity.
Inshort,Russiaisfacingadifficultdecadeoradecadeandahalf,regardlessofPutinscourse.
Theweaknessofandsevererestrictionsonoppositionpoliticalpartiesandcivicorganizationsvirtuallyprecludethe
possibilityofapowerfulstructuredchallengetothePutinregime.However,therestrictionsonorganizedpolitical
activitiescandolittletolimitspontaneousmanifestationsofdiscontentandgrassrootsactionsinresponsetoadeclining
standardofliving,actionsoflocalauthorities,orintercommunal,interracial,orinterconfessionaltensions.130The
growthofsuchprotestactivitiescould,overtime,developintoapersistentpattern,creatingopportunitiesforpolitical
challengestotheregime.Theregimesinabilityorunwillingnesstotackletheunderlyingeconomicpoliticaland
economicproblemscouldexacerbatethechallengeandthethreattothecountrysdomesticstability.
Inadditiontothechallengetothecountryspoliticalstability,thelonglistofproblemsfacingtheRussiangovernmentin
theconditionsofastagnanteconomyandshrinkingresourcesincludesthethreatofyetanotherdestabilizationinthe
NorthCaucasus,whererelativepeaceandstabilityhavebeenmaintainedthroughmassivefederaltransfersandcutsin
defensespending,socialprograms,science,education,andotherprograms.131Combinedwithlackofinvestmenteven
inthecriticalenergysector,thesecutsthreatencascadinglong-termeffectsontheeconomy,furtherunderminingits
abilitytoinnovate,diversify,andgrow,allofwhichpointtothesystemiccrisis.132
ChallengesAbroad
TomakemattersworseforRussianpolicymakers,theexternalenvironmenttheyarelikelytofacealongtheimmediate
peripheryofRussiaandbeyondpromisestobeequallychallenging.TheUkrainecrisishascompoundedthechallenges
RussiannationalsecurityexpertshavelongfearedintheEuro-Atlantictheater.Atthesametime,thebreakinrelations
withEuropeandtheUnitedStateshasnotresultedinnewpartnershipsoralliancesforRussiaelsewhere.Thishas
occurredatatimeofmajornewinstabilityintheinternationalarenaingeneralandinregionsnearRussiainparticular.
InEurope,RussianthreatperceptionsandconcernsaboutNATOslowlymovingitsmilitarycapabilitiestowardits
bordersarebecomingaself-fulfillingprophecyintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisis.If,priortotheannexationof
CrimeaandthewarineasternUkraine,Russiawasconsideredbytheallianceasapossible,albeitincreasinglyunlikely,
partner,thenRussianactionsinUkrainehaveputanendtosuchhopesforpartnershipandtransformedtherelationship
intoonethatisopenlyadversarial.133Thealliancescommitmentnottopermanentlystationsubstantialcombatforces
ontheterritoriesofnewmembersinthecurrentandforeseeablesecurityenvironmentdisappearedwiththeannexation
ofCrimea,theaggressionineasternUkraine,andRussianthreatsagainsttheBalticstatesandotherNATOmembers.
possibilities.InresponsetowhatseniorNATOofficialsdescribeasthemostdangerousthreattoEurope,NATOis
undertakingaseriesofstepsthatincludethestationingofU.S.andotherNATOtroopsandpre-positioningof
equipment,includingheavyU.S.equipment,inthefrontlinestatesfromtheBaltictotheBlackSeaplanningforand
trainingtodefendagainstRussianaggressionandestablishmentofrapidresponseandbroaderresponseforces.134
AndnowSweden,neutralfornearlytwocenturies,andFinland,neutralsince1948,arehavingactivedebatesabout
joiningthealliance.135
Further,theUkrainecrisishaspromptedcallsfromWesternmilitaryanalyststocounterRussianthreatstoEuropewith
theverysystemsthatRussianassessmentshavelonghighlightedasdestabilizingandmostthreateningintheeventofa
crisis.136Acombinationoflong-range,stealth,andprecisiontechnologies,ifdeployedbyNATOalliesinacrisis,would
bethefulfillmentofRussiandefenseplannersworstexpectations.
However,asidefromthepurelymilitarythreats,moreuncertaintyandpossiblyturmoilarelikelytoconfrontRussiainits
Westernstrategicdirection.ThebiggestchallengefacingRussiaalongitswesternfrontieristheunsettledconflictwith
Ukraine.RussianactionsinvolvingUkrainehaveservedasasourceoflong-term,deepenmitybetweentwocountries
thatpreviouslyhadexperiencednone.Furthermore,theyhavecreatedalong-termsourceofinstabilityinlieuofthe
predictable,ifstagnant,relationshipthathadexistedbetweenRussiaandUkraineforthequartercenturyfromthe
breakupoftheSovietUniontotheannexationofCrimea.
Ukrainesoutlookfortheforeseeablefuturecanbestbedescribedalongtwouneasytrajectoriesmuddlingthroughor
returningtoRussiasorbit.Thisbleakprospectisaproductofseveralcircumstances:thelegacyofSovietrule
combinedwiththemisruleofthefirstquartercenturyofindependencethatleftUkraineacorruptoligarchythe
depletedeconomybadlydamagedbytheconflictineasternUkraineandreformsthatwereneverimplementedandthe
lackofinterestintheWesttosupportUkrainewiththesamecommitmentEuropeandtheUnitedStatesmadeto
integratetheformerWarsawPactcountriesandBalticstatesintotheWesternpolitical,economic,andsecurity
structures.Inaddition,theconflictineasternUkraineislikelytobesettledonlyasfrozenratherthanresolved,thus
leavingapermanentwoundinUkrainesdomesticpolitics,economy,andsecurity.
Themuddling-throughscenariohasUkrainestayingonitspresentcourseofdifficult,haltingpoliticalandeconomic
reformsforthedurationofPresidentPetroPoroshenkostermuntil2019.ThisscenariohasUkrainemaking
intermittentprogressinthefollowingareas:someimprovementinitsinvestmentclimategradualstructuralreformsofthe
economy,especiallytheenergysectorandheavyindustrydecentralizationandsomecurbingofthepowerofoligarchs.
Allofthesechangespromisetobedifficultandpoliticallychallenging,threateningtounderminethegovernments
precariousstandinginthepollsandpossiblyleadingtoearlyparliamentaryelections,furthercomplicatingthe
governmentstask.Thisscenarioalsoentailsimplementingadifficultsecurity-sectorreform,reequippingthearmed
forces,andadaptingtoahostofEU-mandatedrequirementsthatmakeupUkrainesAssociationAgreementandfree-
tradeagreementwiththeEU.Thisisahighlyambitiousagendathatatbestcanbeonlypartlyfulfilled,evenbythemost
ambitiousreformersandwiththehelpofgenerousaid,whichisunlikelytomaterialize.Allthewhile,Ukrainewouldbe
underseverepressurefromRussia.
Together,thesewouldhaveaparalyzingeffectontheabilityofthegovernmenttofunction.TheInternationalMonetary
Fund(IMF)agreementwouldthenbejeopardized,leadingtoahaltinIMFassistancetoUkraine.Otherdonor
assistanceconditionedoncompliancewithIMFrequirementswouldalsobeimperiled.Thisturnofeventswould
precipitateanothercrisis,afailureoftherulingcoalitionandearlyparliamentaryandpossiblypresidentialelections
restoringtopoweralessreform-mindedleadershipandreturningUkrainetothedysfunctionaloligarch-dominatedstate
ithadbeeninpriortotheEuromaidanantigovernmentuprisingin20132014.Thisscenarioalsoentailsthenew
governmentsgradualaccommodationwithRussiainexchangeforfinancialsubsidiesintheformoffavorabletermsfor
gastradeorloans.TheaccommodationwithRussiawouldprovecontroversialwithmanyinUkraine,leadingtoa
dividedpolityandpermanentpoliticaltensions,polarization,andgovernmentdysfunction.
Ineitherscenario,fortheforeseeablefuture,Ukraineislikelytoremainafragilestatestrugglingwithdomesticreforms
andcaughtinatug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWest.NeitherRussianorEuropeandtheUnitedStatesislikelyto
countonUkraineasareliablepartner.ForbothRussiaandtheWest,Ukrainepromisestobeasourceofeconomic
andsecuritychallengesaswellasamajorsubjectoflong-termtensionsanddiscordintheirbilateralrelations.
Similarlycaughtinatug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWestisUkrainesnorthernneighborBelarus.Ruledbyawily
authoritarianleader,AleksandrLukashenko,formorethantwodecades,thecountryhassurvivedinlargemeasure
thankstoitsspecialrelationshipwithRussiaandhugesubsidiesfromMoscow,coupledwitharepressiveregimethat
hassucceededineliminatingormarginalizingallopposition.
SincethecrisisinUkraine,LukashenkohassoughttodistancehimselfsomewhatfromMoscowandrebuildbridgesto
theWest.HiseffortshavemetwithreciprocalstepsonthepartoftheEU.137SomeofthisoutreachtotheWestisno
doubtduetothediminishingeconomicprospectsinrelationswithRussiaandtheneedforeconomicassistancetokeep
theregimeafloat.138
Lukashenko,whoissixty-one,couldremaininofficeforanotherdecadeorlonger.Withhisskillatnavigatingbetween
RussiaandtheWestprovedoverthecourseoftwodecadesandhisholdonpowerunchallenged,hecouldcontinueto
maneuverbetweenthetwoopposingsidesforanequallylongtime.
threateningtoitsinterests.TheBelarusianborderisbarely300milesfromMoscow.Apro-Westerngovernmentin
MinskwouldundoubtedlybeseenbytheKremlininequallythreateningtermsasUkrainespursuitofanAssociation
AgreementwiththeEU,ifnotmoreso.BelarusiscloselyintegratedinRussiandefenseplanstocounterNATORussia
hasambitionsforfurtherintegrationandexpansionofitsmilitarypresencethere.139Lukashenkosstatedoppositionto
aRussianairbaseinBelarusislikelytobeseeninMoscowasasignthattheBelarusianleaderisnotareliableallyand
cannotbetrusted.140
AchangeinBelarussstrategicorientation,eitherasaresultofadeliberatedecisionbyLukashenkoorhissuccessor,or
asaconsequenceofadomesticupheaval,couldforcetheKremlinshandtolaunchyetanothermilitaryintervention.
ThistimeitwouldbedirectlyonRussiasborderwiththreeNATOmemberstatesLatvia,Lithuania,andPoland.
RussianminorityinbreakawayTransnistria.Thecountryhasbeenshakenbyrepeatedscandalsandpoliticalprotests
thathaveincapacitateditsgovernment.Moldovaremainsdividedbetweenthosewhoadvocateclosertieswith
Romania,fromwhichitslargepartwassplitoffin1940asaresultoftheMolotov-RibbentropPact,andthosewho
wantclosertieswithRussia.141
Moldovaspoliticshasbeendysfunctionalformostofitshistoryasanindependentstate.Thereislittleinthecountrys
currentpoliticaloreconomiclandscapeandoutlooktosuggestthatthenear-permanentgridlockislikelytochangeand
bereplacedbyabetter-functioninggovernmentthatwouldmovethecountryclosereithertoRomaniaandtheEUorto
Russia.Thepoliticalparalysisandeconomicstagnationarethereforelikelytocontinueindefinitely,astheyhavefor
muchofthepastquartercentury.
AnotherpossiblescenarioforMoldovaoverthenextdecadeoradecadeandahalfentailsagradualmigrationof
MoldovancitizenstoRomania,takingadvantageofRomaniasofferofpassports.Thiswouldeffectivelycontinuethe
trendofworking-ageMoldovansleavingtheirhomelandasguestworkerselsewhereinEuropeorinRussia.According
toWorldBankdata,between2011and2015,personalremittancesamountedtomorethan25percentofMoldovas
GDP.142RussiaseconomicslowdownislikelytoaffectMoldovanguestworkersthere,increasingpressurestomigrate
toEurope.RussiansanctionsagainstMoldovainretributionforitssigninganAssociationAgreementwiththeEUare
likelytofurtherrestrictMoldovanguestworkersaccesstoRussia,thusincreasingpressuresformigrationto
Romania.143ThiswouldineffectstimulateagradualhollowingoutofMoldovaanditsdefactointegrationwith
Romania.Aslongasthisprocessdoesnottriggeractionsleadingtoamoreformalintegrationandanadversereaction
fromRussia,thestatusquoinMoldovawouldremain.
OneofRussiasmajorbreakthroughrelationshipsaftertheColdWarwaswithTurkey.Thetwohistoricalrivalsbuilta
newrelationshipbasedonrecognitionofmutualbenefits.144TurkeyquicklyemergedasamajordestinationforRussian
traders,tourists,andenergycompanies.TurkishcompaniesestablishedthemselvesintheRussianrealestate
developmentindustry,andTurkishagriculturalproducersfoundareadymarketfortheirexportsinRussia.145
DefyingthelegacyoftheColdWarandcenturiesofgeopoliticalrivalrypriortothat,RussiaandTurkeydevelopeda
partnershipthatseemeddestinedtogetstronger.Theirpartnershipwasbuoyedbytwoimportantfactors.First,both
countriesstruggledtofindtheirplaceinEurope,which,despitepromisesofpartnership,keptthematarmslength.The
otherfactorwastheblossomingpersonalrelationshipbetweenthetwocountriespresidents,PutinandRecepTayyip
Erdoan.Bothproudoftheirreputationsasstrongleaderstransformingtheircountries,bothincreasinglyaccusedof
authoritarianbehaviorathomeandcriticizedforitabroad,thetwopresidentsweredescribedinaWashingtonPost
articlesheadlineasmadeforeachother.146ThecivilwarinSyria,inwhichRussiahassupportedthegovernmentof
SyrianPresidentBasharal-AssadandTurkeyhassoughttooverthrowit,hasintroducedfrictionsintherelationship
betweenAnkaraandMoscowbutdidnotchangewhatPutindescribedasitsfriendlyandcooperativenature.147
TheRussian-Turkishrelationship,whichhadbeenfullofpromise
anddeliveredmuchtobothcountries,almostinstantlyrevertedto
itsoldadversarialrootswithnoprospectofimprovementinthe
foreseeablefuture.
ThemajorshiftinrelationsbetweenTurkeyandRussia,rekindlingtalkabouttheircenturies-oldgeopoliticalrivalry,
occurredinlateNovember2015,whenaTurkishF-16fightershotdownaRussianSu-24groundattackaircraft.148
TheTurkishgovernmentsaidatthetimethattheRussianaircrafthadviolatedTurkishairspaceaclaimdisputedbythe
Russiangovernment.PutindescribedTurkishactionsasastabinthebackandreferredtotheTurkishgovernmentas
accomplicesofterrorism.149PutinreportedlyrefusedtheTurkishpresidentsoutreachattempts,andtheRussian
governmentproceededtoimposeeconomicsanctionsonTurkey.150Arelationshipthathadbeenfullofpromisefor
bothcountriesanddeliveredsomuchtobothalmostinstantlyrevertedtoitsoldadversarialrootswithnoprospectof
improvementintheforeseeablefuture.151
HavingregainedCrimea,andwithitsecureditsholdontheBlackSeaFleetbaseinSevastopol,Russiahassealedthe
transformationoftheBlackSeaintoalong-termhostileenvironment.NoneoftheBlackSealittoralstatescanbe
countedonasapartnerbyRussianmilitaryplanners.AllexceptforUkraineandGeorgiaareNATOmembers.Kyiv
andTbilisiviewRussiaasanaggressorandthebiggestthreattotheirsurvivalasindependentandsovereignstates,and
bothhavemademembershipinthealliancethekeygoaloftheirnationalsecuritypolicies.ThesituationintheBlackSea
regionisfurtheraggravatedfromMoscowsstandpointbythebreakdowninRussian-Turkishrelationsfollowing
RussiasmilitarydeploymenttoSyriaandtheshootingdownoftheRussianaircraftbyTurkey.
ThesituationintheSouthCaucasusishardlymorereassuringforRussiandefenseplanners,albeitfordifferentreasons,
largelyunconnectedtoNATO.Theregion,hometothreefrozenconflictsinNagorno-Karabakh,Abkhazia,and
SouthOssetia,ishighlylikelytoundergomajorchangesasafunctionofitsinternaldynamicsanddevelopmentsaround
itinthenextfivetotenyears.
AmajordriverofchangeintheSouthCaucasuspromisestobeAzerbaijan.Hailedinthe1990sasasecularIslamic
countrywithamoderateauthoritarianregimepresidedoverbyarelativelytolerantpro-Westernleader,Azerbaijanalso
hadvasteconomicpotentialthankstoitsoilwealthandopennesstoforeignoilcompaniesinvestment.Little,ifany,of
thatpromisehasmaterialized.TherelativelybenignandconfidentdictatorshipofHeydarAliyevwasreplacedin2003
bythekleptocratic,increasinglyinsecure,andhighlyintolerantregimeofhissonIlham.Theregimesappealtothe
publicbasedonitsclaimofdeliveringameasureofwell-beinghasbeenerodedbythedeclineinthepriceofoilthathas
dealtasevereblowtoAzerbaijanseconomy.152Moreover,theprospectofdepletingitsmajoroildepositsthreatens
thecountrywiththelossofitscriticalsourceofrevenueatatimewhenitsalternativestrategyofpositioningitselfasa
keysupplierandtransithubofnaturalgashastocontendwiththesamefalloutfromthelowoilpriceenvironment.153
Theproteststhathaverockedthecountryastheeconomysputtersraisequestionsabouttheregimeslongevityand
abilitytosustaindomesticstability.Intheeventofaprolongedeconomicslumpcausedbylowoilprices,IlhamAliyevs
regimewouldhaveseveraloptions,noneofthemmutuallyexclusive:tocontinuetotightentherestrictionsonthe
oppositionandcivilsocietytotrytouseitsdecliningfinancialresourcestoaddressthemostpressingneedsandto
appealtonationalunityandpatriotismbyexploitingthethemeofNagorno-Karabakhandlaunchingamilitarycampaign
toregaintheoccupiedterritories.154
TheoutlookforAzerbaijancontainsbleakalternatives.Oneofthemisaninternaldestabilizationandlossofcontrolby
theregime.AnotherwouldberenewedconflictwithArmeniaoverNagorno-Karabakh.Athirdpossibilityentailsboth.
IlhamAliyevssuppressionofnotjustalloppositionbutnearlyallcivicorganizationsandmanifestationsofindependent
opinionhasunderminedAzerbaijanstieswithEuropeandtheUnitedStates.Asaresult,theWestwouldnothavethe
necessaryleveragetomoderatetheregimesbehaviordomesticallyorinternationally.155
ThefightingthatbrokeoutbetweenArmeniaandAzerbaijaninApril2016servedasagrimreminderofhowfragilethe
situationisalongtheirlineofcontact.Tomakemattersworse,acrisisinvolvingAzerbaijanandArmeniacoulddraw
intoitthreecriticalexternalactors:Russia,Turkey,andIran.Allthreehavemajorstakesintheregion.Russiaand
Turkeywouldverylikelybepittedagainsteachotherinthenewconflictsupportingtheirrespectiveclientstates.
InternalturmoilinAzerbaijanevenwithoutaconflictwithArmeniawouldalmostcertainlyinvolvemeddlingbyallthree
neighboringpowers,eachforitsownreasonsseekingtoexpanditsinfluenceinthecountry,whichtheyconsidertobe
ofcriticalgeopoliticalimportance.
AcrisisinvolvingAzerbaijanandArmeniacoulddrawintoitthree
criticalexternalactors:Russia,Turkey,andIran.
WithRussia,Turkey,andIrancompetingforinfluenceinAzerbaijan,thecountryandthesurroundingregioncould
experiencespilloversfromtheconflictandtheneighborsreactionstoit.ThesewouldalmostcertainlyaffectArmenia
andGeorgia,consideringtheboundarylinesdrawnwithoutregardtoethnicdivisions,andinfrastructureandsupply
routesthattraversetheentireregion.
Predictingtheoutcomeofthisturmoilisaninherentlydifficulttask.Russia,Iran,andTurkeyallhaveadvantagesand
disadvantagesintheirpursuitofinfluenceoverAzerbaijan.RussiaandIranhavetheadvantageofsharedborderswith
Azerbaijan,whileTurkeyhastheadvantageofethnickinshipandlong-terminvestmentintherelationshipwith
Azerbaijan.However,RussiahashadtodealwithitsowntroubledNorthCaucasusIranhastobemindfulofitsown
AzerbaijaniTurkishpopulationandTurkeywouldhavetocrossGeorgianorArmenianterritorytogettoAzerbaijan.
Allofthesearelikelytobecomplicatingfactorsfortheirinvolvementthere,thougheachofthesecomplicatingfactors
couldserveasarationaleforinterveninginAzerbaijaniturmoil.
TheturmoilcouldlastforyearsandbecomepartofthelargerturmoilintheMiddleEast,withIranandTurkeypitted
againsteachotherinSyria,Russian-TurkishrelationsattheirworstsincetheColdWar,andweapons,refugees,
militants,andillicitgoodscrossinginalldirections.TheCaucasusregionmaynotseestabilityreturnforadecadeor
longer.
Onceameasureofstabilityisrestored,theregion,boththeNorthandtheSouthCaucasus,maynotberecognizable,
withnewbordersandpossiblyevensomestatesdisappearingfromthemap.Theshapeoftheregionislikelytobe
determinedbydevelopmentsaroundtheregionRussiasowntrajectoryandabilitytosecuretheNorthCaucasus
TurkeysabilitytohandleitsKurdishproblemthefutureofIraqandtheconflictinSyria.Allofthesewillhavea
bearingontheCaucasusregion,whichisnolongerseparated,asitoncewas,fromtheGreaterMiddleEast.Whatis
clear,however,isthattheregionisheadingintoanuncertainfuturefullofdangersallofthatonRussiasdoorstep.
CentralAsiaisinthemidstofabiggeopoliticalchangewhoseconsequencesforRussiaandEurasiaarelikelytobefelt
inthenextdecadeandbeyond.ThefirstquartercenturyofindependenceforthefivestatesofformerlySovietCentral
Asiawasatimeofestablishingtheirownstatehood,securingtheirsovereignty,andbuildinglinkstotheoutsideworld.
Formuchofthatperiod,theWest,andespeciallytheUnitedStates,playedakeyroleasasupporterofthefivestates
independence,sovereignty,andintegrationintotheinternationalarena.156
WiththeUnitedStatesandEuropelargelyout,Russianinfluence
down,andChinaascendantinCentralAsia,theregionisallbut
certaintoshiftitsgeopoliticalorientationfromtheWesttothe
East.
DuringthepostColdWarperiodoftheWestsdominance,thenewstatesintegrationintotheinternationalarenawas
toaverylargeextentequatedwithbuildingtiestoWesternstructurestheOrganizationforSecurityandCooperation
inEurope,theWorldBank,andtheIMF,aswellasNATOandtheEU.Moreover,thankstotheU.S.-ledcampaignin
Afghanistan,theWestservedasamajorsecurityprovidertoCentralAsiafornearlyadecadeandahalfafterthe
September11,2001,terroristattacks.Insum,forthefirstquartercenturyofCentralAsiasindependence,theWest
playedakeyroleinensuringtheregionssecurity.EvenRussia,asaEuropeanpower,albeitnotcontenttoseethe
UnitedStatesanditsNATOalliesinvolvedinitsjealouslyguardedbackyard,ineffectservedasaconnectionto
EuropeforCentralAsia.
minimizeitsrolethere,whilemanyU.S.allieshavepulledtheirforcesoutofAfghanistanaltogether.TheWestsroleas
asecurityproviderforCentralAsiaisending.
Tradeandinvestmentflows,too,aredrivingCentralAsiatowardadifferentgravitationalpolefromtheWestChina.
ChinastradewithCentralAsiahasincreasedmorethanahundredfoldinthepastquartercenturyandpassedthe$50
billionmarkin2013.Chineseinvestmentinpipelines,roads,andenergyexplorationismeasuredinthetensofbillionsof
dollarsandisprojectedtogrowfurther,asChinaplansambitiousnewprojectsfortheregioninthenextdecade.Russia
hasbeenlosingtheeconomiccompetitionwithChinainCentralAsia,whiletheUnitedStatesandEuropebarely
registerastradepartners.157
WiththeUnitedStatesandEuropelargelyout,Russianinfluencedown,andChinaascendantinCentralAsia,theregion
isallbutcertainfortheforeseeablefuturetoshiftitsgeopoliticalorientationfromtheWest,towhichitwasleaning
duringthefirstquartercenturyofitsindependence,totheEast.Thisisboundtohavefar-reachingconsequencesforall
involved.
providingsecurityfortheregion.AgreaterburdeninthisrespectwillfallontheCentralAsiastatesthemselves,aswell
asontheirimmediateneighbors,especiallyRussiaandChina.ThisraisesthequestionofRussiasabilitytoactasthe
regionssecuritymanagerforCentralAsiainlightofMoscowslimitedcapabilitiesandchallengeselsewhere,andof
Chinaswilltoengageintheregioninaroleithasbeenreluctanttoassume.Theresultofthischangewillbegreater
uncertaintyandpotentiallygreaterinstabilityfacingRussianplannersastheycontemplatethefutureoftheregionthat
theyhavelongviewedasamajorvulnerabilityontheirperiphery.ItseemsnothingisstableandsecureonRussias
thresholdanywhere,initsfrontyardoritsbackyard.
Conclusion
AttheendofthefirstquartercenturyafterthebreakupoftheSovietUnion,Russiaisathreattoitsneighborsandfeels
deeplythreatenedbythem.Itssenseofvulnerabilityandinferiorityvis--vistheWestislong-standinganddeep,andit
issurroundedbyavast,diverse,andturbulentregionwithamultitudeofpotentialcrisesthatholdoutthepossibilityof
escalatingintolargerconflicts.ThisunstablesituationinEuropesEastandEurasiaisaproductoftheinterplayoverthe
pasttwenty-fiveyearsofmultiplefactors,bothindigenoustotheirhomeregionsandresultingfromactionsofoutside
powersandexternaldevelopments.
ChiefamongthesefactorsisRussiasownevolutionfromaquietlydissenting,grumbling,butnonethelesslargelypassive
bystanderindevelopmentofthepostColdWarEuro-Atlanticsecurityarchitectureintoitsactiveopponentandastate
capableofprojectingpowerarounditsperipheryandassertingitselfbeyonditsimmediateneighborhoodindefenseof
itsinterests.Aseriesofeventsthe2008Russian-GeorgianWar,the2014annexationofCrimeaandthewarin
easternUkraine,theemergenceofsecuritythreatstotheBaltics,theeconomicstormsbuffetingRussiasneighborsfrom
MoldovatoTajikistanillustrateshowmuchswayRussiacontinuestoholdoverthesecurityandwell-beingofthe
post-Sovietstates,nomatterhowmuchtheyhavetriedtoleavethatlabelbehindandbreakoutoftheRussiansphere
ofinfluence.
Russia,inotherwords,remainstheessentialsecuritypillarinEasternEuropeandEurasia.Astable,prosperous,secure,
andfriendlyRussiaisfarmorelikelytobeasourceofthesametoitsneighborsthanthealternativeaninsecure,
unstable,andstrugglingRussia,whichhascastalonganddarkshadowoverthem.
UnfortunatelyforRussiasneighborsandfortheirfriends,allies,andpartners,theprospectofastable,prosperous,
secure,andfriendlyRussiaisremote.Theoutlookforthecountryfortheforeseeablefutureisbleakabsentmajor
reforms,whereassuchreformsappearunlikely.
NowhereisthesenseofpessimismaboutRussiasprospectsmoreacutethaninsideRussiaitself.ItpermeatesRussian
assessmentsofthecountryseconomicconditionandprospects,itspoliticalstability,anditsmilitaryinrelationtothe
threatsandchallengestoitssecurity.Foremostamongthesesecuritythreats,intheviewofRussiandefenseexperts,is
NATO,followedcloselybyfragilestatesaroundRussiasperiphery.
includingRussia,isseenbyitssecurityestablishmentastheprincipalchallengetoitssecurityandstability,intendedto
exploititsmanyvulnerabilities.ThisassessmentofWesternmotivesandactionsresultingfromthemhasenduredwith
remarkableconsistencyintheRussiannationalsecuritynarrativesincetheearliestdaysofthepost-SovietRussianstate
tothepresent.ItisthedominantviewinMoscowsnationalsecurityestablishmentwithnodissentingvoicesofany
consequence.
economically,militarilyvis--vistheWest.ThecombinationofRussiasinsecurityanditsperceptionoftheWests
hostilitytoithasbeentheprincipaldriverofRussiansecuritypolicy.TherejectionofexpansionbyNATOandtheEU
intocountriesapparentlygenuinelyviewedbyRussianpolicymakersaswithintheirsphereofprivilegedinterests,
coupledwiththefearoftheWesternsecurityandpoliticalorderapproachingRussiasborders,wasthekeymotivator
behindthewarwithGeorgiaandtheundeclaredwaragainstUkraine.ThisunderlyingRussianworldviewisunlikelyto
changeintheforeseeablefuture.
TheemergingnewsecurityorderwithNATOrethinkingitspostColdWarpostureforthefirsttimeinaquarter
centuryandrebuildingitsdeterrentcapabilitiesandwithRussiabuildingupitsmilitarycapabilitiesalongitswestern
borderisunstableandunpredictable.BothRussiaandtheWestfeelinsecureandcompelledtodomore,raisingthe
risksofanescalatorydynamicinthenameofdefenseanddeterrence.
NothingjustifiesRussiasundeclaredwaragainstUkraine,whichviolatedmultipleRussianinternationalcommitments
andhastriggeredtheworstpoliticalandsecuritycrisisinEuropeinageneration.However,indevisingtheirresponseto
Russianactions,WesternpolicymakersshouldbeclearaboutthedriversandmotivationsofRussianactionsthe
insecurityandperceptionofvulnerabilityasregardstheWest,ingrainedinRussiasnationalsecurityestablishmentfora
generation.WesternpolicymakersshouldalsobeclearthatMoscowhasneveracceptedtheargumentthatthe
expansionofWesterninstitutionswasmeantasamovetowarditratherthanagainstit.
WesterndiscussionsaboutthenewlydiscoveredvulnerabilityofNATOalliesthatborderRussia,especiallytheBaltic
states,mustnotoverlookthefactthattheBalticstatesmembershipinNATOhasmeanttoRussianmilitaryplanners
thatNATO,stillseenasahostilealliance,isnowonly100milesfromSaintPetersburg,andthatthecurrentbuildupof
NATOcapabilitiesintheBalticstatesisoccurringlessthanatwo-hourdrivefromRussiassecondmostimportantcity.
Westernpolicymakersshouldhavenoillusionsthatthebuildupofdefenseanddeterrentcapabilitiesinthefrontline
stateswillhaveastabilizingeffectonthestandoffbetweenNATOandRussia.ThebuildupofRussiananti-accessand
area-denial(A2/AD)capabilitiesinCrimeaandKaliningradandthreatstodeploynuclearweaponstherearestrong
indicatorsthattensionswillincreaseratherthansubsideintheseregions.158
Inthiscontext,themostdisturbingaspectofthisrenewedadversarialrelationshipisthereturnofthespecterofnuclear
wartotheEuropeancontinent.Russiaslong-standingperceivedinferiorityvis--visNATOsconventionalcapabilities
andtheirproximitytotheRussianheartlandhavegivenrisetoamilitarystrategythatassignsacriticalroletolimited
nuclearstrikesearlyinaconflictasameansofthwartingNATOsconventionaldominanceandendingtheconflict
beforeitresultsindevastatinglossestotheheartland.Defenseofthehomelandhastakenonenhancedprioritybecause
afterthelossoftheouterandinnerempiresandtheexpansionofNATO,ithasbecometheforwardareainanyfuture
conflictbetweenRussiaandNATO.
writingsaboutearlynuclearuseshouldnotbetreatedasareliableindicatoroffutureRussianactions.Nonetheless,the
prominenceofnuclearweaponsinRussianstrategicthoughtisindicativeofthecountrysperceivedvulnerabilitiesand
intensityoftheadversarialrelationshipwiththeWest.
FortheUnitedStatesanditsallies,thisposesadauntingchallengehowtorespondtoRussianactionsinamanner
thatensuresacredible,robustdeterrentposturethatisstabilizinganddoesnotfeedRussiasworstperceptionsofits
ownvulnerabilities.RelianceonnucleardeterrenceinthiscontextcouldproveescalatoryandreinforceRussianmilitary
plannersnuclearleanings,whilerelianceonconventionalmeanswouldunderscoreRussiasperceivedvulnerabilities.
NowherewilltheadversarialrelationshipbetweenRussiaandthe
WestplayoutwithgreaterintensitythaninEasternEurope.
NowherewilltheadversarialrelationshipbetweenRussiaandtheWestplayoutwithgreaterintensitythaninEastern
EuropethestatesoftheformerSovietUnionthathavenotjoinedtheEuro-Atlanticpolitical,economic,andsecurity
institutionsandareunwillingtojointheRussian-dominatedcounterpartEurasianstructures.Armenia,Azerbaijan,
Belarus,Georgia,Moldova,andUkrainehavebecomethebattlegroundstates,toonedegreeoranotherpulledin
differentdirectionsinthegeopoliticaltug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWest.
Much,ifnotmost,oftheattentionfollowingRussiasaggressionagainstUkrainehasbeenfocusedontheBalticstates
astheNATOalliesmostexposedandvulnerabletoRussianattack.Balticdefenseisundoubtedlyamajorchallengefor
thealliance.However,Russianactionsbefore,during,andsincetheaggressionagainstUkrainesuggestthatMoscow
stilltakesNATOsArticle5securityguaranteeofitsmembersseriouslyandthatitisnotpreparedtotestthatguarantee
directly.Rather,itsactionsinformationandcyberoperations,airspaceviolations,nuclearsaberrattling,andthelike
appearaimedatcreatinganairofuncertaintyaboutthatguaranteeandunderminingmemberstatesconfidenceinit.
RussianleadershavedemonstratedtwicebytheiractionsinGeorgiain2008andinUkrainesince2014thatthey
takethatguaranteeseriously.Russianleaderswenttowartwicetopreventthetwocountriesfrommovingclosertothe
WestandeventuallyastheysawitjoiningNATO.
TheexperiencesofUkraineandGeorgiahaveprofoundimplicationsforthesixbattlegroundstates.LackingNATOs
securityguarantee,theyremaininwhatMoscowperceivesasitssphereofprivilegedinterests.Itispreparedtouseall
availablemeans,includingmilitaryforce,tokeeptheminthatsphere.AslongastheWestisnotpreparedtoconsign
thesestatestotheRussiansphere,theybecomethearenaforEast-Westcompetition.
cooperatewithRussia,oratleastseekitsconsenttopursuetheirinterestsinEurasia.Besidestheobviousexamplesof
Syria,Afghanistan,ornucleartalkswithIran,inallofwhichRussiahasplayedanimportantpart,futureexamplesof
suchsituationsmayinvolvecontingenciesinEasternEurope,theSouthCaucasus,orCentralAsia.Inallofthose
locations,whetherforreasonsofgeography,politics,oreconomics,theUnitedStatesanditsallieswillneedtoget
Russiaonboardtobeabletorespondtonaturaldisasters,humanitariancrises,regionalconflicts,orotherunforeseen
events.
AbsentmajorchangesinoutlookonthepartofeitherRussiaor
NATO,thisadversarialrelationshipwillremainthekeyfeatureof
theEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderfortheforeseeablefuture.
Moreover,evenintimeswhencircumstancesforceRussiaandtheWesttocooperate,Russiaislikelytosustainits
otherdestabilizingbehaviors.Theuseofmeasuresshortofwareconomicleversinstatesthatarevulnerable,suchas
Bulgaria,Cyprus,orGreeceandbribery,blackmail,infiltrationofintelligenceoperatives,andanassortmentofother
tacticswillbepartofthetoolkitdeployedbyRussianpolicymakersintimesofcrisis,aswellasinpeacetimeaspartof
thenormalcontinuationofwarfarebyothermeans.
Russiasrelianceontheseformsofcompetitionshortofoutrightwarfareisfullyjustifiedintheeyesofthecountrys
securityestablishmentasasymmetricmeanswarrantedbytheperceivedRussia-NATOimbalance.Russianrelianceon
themandtheintensityofitsoppositiontotheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderareunlikelytodiminishifitseconomic
prospectsordomesticstabilityerode.Onthecontrary,suchreliancemaybecomeevengreaterasotherinstrumentsin
itstoolkitbecomescarcer.
AsseenfromRussia,theenvironmentinEuropeandEurasiahasleftMoscowwithoutreliablepartners,letaloneallies.
NATOsexpansionhaspositionedthealliance,viewedbyRussianelitesasadversarial,onthecountrysdoorstep,far
closerthanithaseverbeen.TheothersideofthiscoinisthatRussiaisonNATOsdoorstepasithasneverbeen
before.Theresultisastateofprofoundmutualinsecurity.AbsentmajorchangesinoutlookonthepartofeitherRussia
orNATO,thisadversarialrelationshipwillremainthekeyfeatureoftheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderfortheforeseeable
future.Eventually,itwilltakeapolitical,notamilitary,solutiontoaddressthesetensions.
Notes
2DmitriTrenin,TheCrisisinCrimeaCouldLeadtheWorldIntoaSecondColdWar,Guardian,March2,2014,
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/02/crimea-crisis-russia-ukraine-cold-war.
3ThisissueisdiscussedindetailinRajanMenonandEugeneRumer,ConflictinUkraine:TheUnwindingofthe
PostColdWarOrder(Cambridge,MA:MITPress,2015).
7,:,
8Ibid.
9YevgeniyAmbartsumov,InteresyRossiiNeZnayutGranits[Russianinterestsknownoborders],Megapolis-
Express,May6,1992.
10AleksandrVladislavlevandSergeyKaraganov,TyazhkiyKrestRossii[Russiasheavycross],Nezavisimaya
Gazeta,November11,1992.
13RogerCohen,YeltsinOpposesExpansionofNATOinEasternEurope,NewYorkTimes,October2,1993,
http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/02/world/yeltsin-opposes-expansion-of-nato-in-eastern-europe.html.
14Ibid.
15JamestownFoundation,ChubaisDemandsCompensationforNATOEnlargement,Monitor3,no.84(April
1997).
17DouglasJ.Gillert,AfterJumping,BattalionLearnstoCrawl,DoDNews,U.S.DepartmentofDefense,October
1,1997.
20:,,
,172015,http://glavred.info/mir/zhurnalist-rf-o-motivacii-putina-pomnit-sudby-miloshevicha-kaddafi-i-
dedushki-pinocheta-323242.html.
21CelesteA.Wallander,RussianNationalSecurityPolicyin2000(PONARS[ProgramonNewApproachesto
RussianSecurity]PolicyMemo102,DavisCenterforRussianStudies,HarvardUniversity,2000)NikolaiSokov,
TheViewsoftheMilitaryLeadership,inModernizationofStrategicNuclearWeaponsinRussia:TheEmergingNew
Posture(PONARSWorkingPaperNo.6,DavisCenterforRussianStudies,HarvardUniversity,May1998).
23PutinsPreparedRemarksat43rdMunichConferenceonSecurityPolicy,WashingtonPost,February12,2007,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/12/AR2007021200555.html.
24UweKlumann,MatthiasSchepp,andKlausWiegrefe,NATOsEastwardExpansion:DidtheWestBreakIts
PromisetoMoscow?,SpiegelOnline,November26,2009,http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-s-
eastward-expansion-did-the-west-break-its-promise-to-moscow-a-663315.html.
25MaryEliseSarotte,ABrokenPromise?WhattheWestReallyToldMoscowAboutNATOExpansion,Foreign
Affairs,September/October2014,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2014-08-11/broken-promise.
26SergeyLavrov,Democracy,InternationalGovernance,andtheFutureWorldOrder,RussiainGlobalAffairs,
no.1(February9,2005):http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/n_4422.
27CheneyChidesRussiaonDemocracy,BBC,May4,2006,http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4972464.stm.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/05/world/europe/05nato.htmlTextofPutinsSpeechatNATOSummit(Bucharest,
April2,2008),UnianInformationAgency,April18,2008,http://www.unian.info/world/111033-text-of-putins-
speech-at-nato-summit-bucharest-april-2-2008.html.
34DavidM.HerszenhornandEllenBarry,LargeAnti-PutinProtestSignalsGrowingResolve,NewYorkTimes,
June12,2012,http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/world/europe/anti-putin-demonstrators-gather-in-moscow.html
HundredsDetainedAfterMoscowAnti-PutinProtest,Guardian,March5,2012,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2012/mar/05/russian-election-reaction-putin-liveRussianPresidentDmitry
MedvedevAdmitsPoliticalReformNecessary,Telegraph,December22,2011,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8972807/Russian-President-Dmitry-Medvedev-admits-
political-reform-necessary.html.
35Russia,SovietStyle,NewYorkTimes,June12,2012,http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/opinion/russia-
soviet-style.html.
36KarounDemirjian,MeanwhileinRussia,PutinPassesLawAgainstProtests,WashingtonPost,July22,2014,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/07/22/meanwhile-in-russia-putin-passes-law-against-
protests/MiriamElder,RussiansFearCrackdownasHundredsAreArrestedAfterAnti-PutinProtest,Guardian,
March6,2012,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/mar/06/russians-crackdown-anti-putin-protestKathyLally
andKarenDeYoung,PutinAccusesClinton,U.S.ofFomentingElectionProtests,WashingtonPost,December8,
2011,http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/putin-accuses-clinton-us-of-stirring-election-
protests/2011/12/08/gIQA0MUDfO_story.html.
38VladimirPutin,ANewIntegrationProjectforEurasia:TheFutureintheMaking,Izvestia,October3,2011,as
reprintedbythePermanentMissionoftheRussianFederationtotheEuropeanUnion,
http://www.russianmission.eu/en/news/article-prime-minister-vladimir-putin-new-integration-project-eurasia-future-
making-izvestia-3-.
39Ibid.
41OleksandrSushko,AForkintheRoad?UkraineBetweenEUAssociationandtheEurasianCustomsUnion
(PONARSEurasiaPolicyMemoNo.293,September2013)tefanFle,StatementonthePressureExercisedby
RussiaonCountriesoftheEasternPartnership,pressrelease,EuropeanCommission,September11,2013.
InternationalPeace,July30,2014,http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/07/30/saving-ukraine-s-defense-industry.
4316%ofNaturalGasConsumedinEuropeFlowsThroughUkraine,U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,
March14,2014,http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=15411.
44JudyDempsey,U.S.SenatorUrgesUseofNATODefenseClauseforEnergy,InternationalHeraldTribune,
November28,2006,http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/28/world/europe/28iht-nato.3702073.html.
46DanLamothe,RussiaIsGreatestThreattotheU.S.,SaysJointChiefsChairmanNomineeGen.JosephDunford,
WashingtonPost,July9,2015,http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/07/09/russia-is-greatest-
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departure-1462115561TheodoreSchleiferandJimSciutto,TopArmyLeader:RussiaIsMostDangerousThreat
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odierno/.
49,,,,,152016,
http://www.ng.ru/courier/2016-02-15/9_friends.html.
50,,112015,
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50913.
51,,312015,
http://kremlin.ru/acts/news/51129.
52,:
,,102015,http://www.ng.ru/news/519934.html?print=Y.
54,,,232014,
http://rg.ru/2014/04/23/karaganov-site.html.
Estratgicos,December31,2015,http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/OtrasPublicaciones/Internacional/2016/Russian-
National-Security-Strategy-31Dec2015.pdf.
56Transcript:InterviewWithSergeiIvanov,FinancialTimes,June21,2015,http://next.ft.com/content/b81bbd70-
17f0-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996.
57,,,222015,http://m.rg.ru/2015/12/22/patrushev-
site.html.
58,:,
59,,.,29,2015,
.
60,.
61,.
62,:.
63,:,,15
64,2023-:,,21
2015,http://www.rbc.ru/opinions/economics/21/12/2015/567799949a79478889fd54ee
,http://svop.ru.
653.,,302015,
66,:,,
67:,,22
2016,http://tass.ru/ekonomika/3303885,,,29
68,,,182015,http://vpk-news.ru/articles/24284.
69Ibid.
70NATOCondemnsPutinsNuclearSabre-Rattling,BBC,June16,2015,http://www.bbc.com/news/world-
europe-33153703AdamWithnall,RussiaThreatensDenmarkWithNuclearWeaponsifItTriestoJoinNATO
DefenceShield,Independent,March22,2015.
71DavidLermanandTerryAtlas,RussiasSaber-RattlingThreatensStability,U.S.Says,Bloomberg,June25,
2015,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-threatens-denmark-with-nuclear-weapons-if-it-tries-
to-join-nato-defence-shield-10125529.html.
72,,,
73MaryC.Fitzgerald,MarshalOgarkovonModernWar:19771985,ProfessionalPaper443.10,Centerfor
NavalAnalyses,revisedNovember1986.
76,,-,252015,http://vpk-
WashingtonPost,October24,2015,http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-1983-war-scare-
soviet-leadership-feared-nuclear-surprise-attack-by-us/2015/10/24/15a289b4-7904-11e5-a958-
78Forathoroughdiscussionofthis,seePavelPodvig,DidStarWarsHelpEndtheColdWar?SovietResponseto
theSDIProgram(workingpaper,RussianNuclearForcesProject,March17,2013).
79:,,18
2015,http://ria.ru/interview/20150218/1048334517.html.
80Ibid.
81,,-,13
82,,
,282012,http://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2012-09-28/11_satan.html.
83,-,282013,http://vpk-
news.ru/news/16557.
84Ibid,,.,182004,
http://polit.ru/article/2004/11/18/slipch/,
,,2013,http://www.intertrends.ru/thirty-second/Volodin.pdf
...,Viperson.ru,30
2012,http://viperson.ru/wind.php?ID=652675.
85,
,:
,-,,,202020.,
http://www.armscontrol.ru/pubs/em092012.htm.
86,,,-,13
2014,http://www.vko.ru/geopolitika/ugrozy-bezopasnosti-rossii.
87,,,-,-
88Ibid.
89RussiaHasDeliveredOver1,000AirstrikesinSyriaSinceStartofYearGeneral,TASS,January11,2016,
90,,,232014,
http://www.ng.ru/armies/2014-09-23/1_rogozin.html.
91StepanKravchenko,PutinTellsDefenseChiefstoStrengthenRussianNuclearForces,Bloomberg,December
11,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-11/putin-tells-defense-chiefs-to-strengthen-russian-
nuclear-forces.
92,,
,122014,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-09-12/1_oborona.html.
93,:4202,
,,222015,
http://www.mk.ru/politics/2015/07/22/istochnik-rossiya-ispytyvaet-giperzvukovoy-obekt-4202-kotoryy-obescenit-
amerikanskuyu-pro.html.
94,-.,,
162014,http://www.ng.ru/armies/2014-12-16/3_kartblansh.html.
95,:4202,
,,222015,
96PetrTopychkanov,IsRussiaAfraidofChineseandIndianMissiles?CarnegieMoscowCenter,November3,
2014,http://carnegie.ru/2014/11/03/is-russia-afraid-of-chinese-and-indian-missiles.
97,Newsru.com,42015,
http://www.newsru.com/russia/04jul2015/midnukes.html.
98,,,3
99,,,-,27
2016,http://vpk-news.ru/articles/30420.
100:,
101Ibid.
102,,
103:,
105:,,13
106,,312015,
107AgenceFrance-Presse,VladimirPutinWarnsRussianstoAvoidGoogle:TheInternetIsaCIASpecialProject,
RawStory,April24,2014,http://www.rawstory.com/2014/04/vladimir-putin-warns-russians-to-avoid-google-the-
internet-is-a-cia-special-project/RussiaandChinaWantMoreControlOvertheInternet,Stratfor,August14,2015,
http://www.stratfor.com/sample/analysis/russia-and-china-want-more-control-over-internet.
108,:,
,,32015,http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2781186.
109,,122016,http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-
02-12/2_red.htmlRussiasChiefInternetCensorEnlistsChinasKnow-How,FinancialTimes,April27,2016.
110,.,,1
111MasterCard,VisaNowProcessRussianPaymentsThroughSanction-ProofSystem,MoscowTimes,May28,
2015,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/mastercard-visa-now-process-russian-payments-through-
sanction-proof-system/522576.html.
112TASS,RussiaMayUseChinasPaymentInfrastructureInsteadofSWIFTVTBBankHead,RussiaBeyond
theHeadlines,March11,2015,
113RussiaBrainstormsStrategytoReplaceBannedWesternDefenseImports,MoscowTimes,August14,2014,
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-brainstorms-strategy-to-replace-banned-western-defense-
imports/505133.html.
taxman/491910.html.
116RobinNiblett,NATOMustFocusontheHybridWarsBeingWagedontheWest,FinancialTimes,July17,
2014,http://next.ft.com/content/3192c7a0-0cd2-11e4-bf1e-00144feabdc0JohnVandiver,SACEUR:AlliesMust
PrepareforRussiaHybridWar,StarsandStripes,September4,2014,http://www.stripes.com/news/saceur-allies-
must-prepare-for-russia-hybrid-war-1.301464.
118,(:,2015),
%D0%A1.%D0%90.,%D0%93%D0%B8%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8F
%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B2
%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8.pdf,
,-,182016,
119,,,142014,http://topwar.ru/56079-
(II),,132015,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2015-
03-13/1_gybrid2.html,:,
120,:,,22
2016,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-10-10/1_nato.html.
121,,,302015,http://topwar.ru/75928-mif-
o-gibridnoy-voyne.html.
122Ibid.
123ShaunWalker,AlexisTsiprasinMoscowAsksEuropetoEndSanctionsAgainstRussia,Guardian,April8,
2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/08/alexis-tsipras-in-moscow-asks-europe-to-end-sanctions-
against-russiaGeorgiGotev,BulgarianParliamentAlmostRejectedtheEUSanctionsAgainstRussia,EurActiv,
October8,2015,http://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/bulgarian-parliament-almost-rejected-the-eu-
sanctions-against-russia/.
http://www.politico.eu/article/le-pen-russia-crimea-putin-money-bank-national-front-seeks-russian-cash-for-election-
fight/.
125MelanieAmannetal.,TheHybridWar:RussiasPropagandaCampaignAgainstGermany,SpiegelOnline,
January30,2016,http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/putin-wages-hybrid-war-on-germany-and-west-a-
1075483.htmlTheCzechsandRussia:SpyVersusPolitician,Economist,October29,2014,
126,,,231995,
-9785d26186b2#.byb71wmzt.
127DmitryZhdannikovandGuyFaulconbridge,KhodorkovskySaysPutinIsLeadingRussiaTowardStagnation,
Collapse,Reuters,November27,2015,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-khodorkovsky-west-
idUSKBN0TF23920151126.
meaningfulbreakwithPutinism.ThisanalysisalsoassumesthatPutinremainshealthyandthattherewillbenocoup
againsthimfortheremainderofhiscurrentterm.
http://www.minchenko.ru/netcat_files/File/Politburo_2014_ENG1_pre_final1.pdfRussia:TheStrugglesWithinPart
I,Stratfor,January9,2008,http://www.stratfor.com/analysis/russia-struggles-within-part-i.
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/23/world/europe/russians-anxiety-swells-as-oil-prices-collapse.htmlTomBalmforth,
SacredGround:MuscovitesProtestChurchConstructioninPark,RadioFreeEurope/FreeLiberty,June26,2015,
http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-moscow-church-protest-torfyanka-park/27095836.htmlAlexeyMalashenko,
DivisionsandDefianceAmongRussiasMuslims,CarnegieMoscowCenter,November20,2015,
http://carnegie.ru/commentary/2015/11/20/divisions-and-defiance-among-russia-s-muslims/im56MiriamElder,
MoscowRiotsExposeRacismattheHeartofRussianFootball,Guardian,December18,2010,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/19/spartak-moscow-race-riots-ultranationalistAlexeyMalashenkoand
AlexeyStarostin,TheRiseofNontraditionalIslamintheUrals,CarnegieMoscowCenter,September30,2015,
http://carnegie.ru/2015/09/30/rise-of-nontraditional-islam-in-urals/iie6.
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2013-04-25/putin-s-medieval-peace-pact-in-chechnyaMichaelSchwirtz,
RussianAngerGrowsOverChechnyaSubsidies,NewYorkTimes,October8,2011,
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/world/europe/chechnyas-costs-stir-anger-as-russia-approaches-elections.html
Ex-MinisterSaysRussiaWillCutDefenseBudgetin23Years,TASS,January13,2016,
http://www.rt.com/business/328915-russia-social-spending-2016/MoscowProtestersRallyAgainstBudgetCutsin
Science,Education,RT,June6,2015,http://www.rt.com/news/265495-moscow-protest-science-education/Eugene
Vorotnikov,GovernmentPlanstoCut10%OffUniversityFunding,UniversityWorldNews,February20,2015,
http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20150220085025625.
132MikhailKrutikhin,GrabandShare:NewTaxProposalsforRussiasOilIndustry,CarnegieMoscowCenter,
October15,2015,http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=61623,
,,242015,
,,302015,
http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2015-12-30/1_otredaktora.html.
134NATOLeaderSaysRussiaBuildingArcofSteelinEurope,U.S.DepartmentofDefense,October6,2015,
http://www.defense.gov/News-Article-View/Article/622080/nato-leader-says-russia-building-arc-of-steel-in-europe
NaftaliBendavid,NATORampsUpResponsetoRussia,WallStreetJournal,June24,2015,
http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-ramps-up-response-to-russia-1435174136.
http://nato.gov.si/eng/topic/national-security/neutral-status/neutral-countries/TheEffectsofFinlandsPossibleNATO
Membership,MinistryofForeignAffairsofFinland,April29,2016,http://formin.finland.fi/public/default.aspx?
contentid=345685TomasBertelman,JohanMolander,andSven-OlofPeterson,APowerfulCaseforSwedish
MembershipinNATO,NATOSource(blog),AtlanticCouncil,August21,2015,
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/a-powerful-case-for-swedish-membership-in-nato.
136RichardFontaineandJulianneSmith,Anti-Access/AreaDenialIsntJustforAsiaAnymore,DefenseOne,April
2,2015,http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2015/04/anti-accessarea-denial-isnt-just-asia-anymore/109108/.
137AgenceFrance-Presse,BelarusPoll:EULiftsSanctionsonLukashenkoEuropesLastDictator,Guardian,
October12,2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/13/belarus-poll-eu-lifts-sanctions-on-lukashenko-
europes-last-dictator.
138SabraAyres,AsBelarusEconomyFalters,LukashenkoLooksWest,AlJazeeraAmerica,January3,2016,
http://america.aljazeera.com/multimedia/2016/1/as-belarus-economy-falters-lukashenko-looks-west.html.
139AnasMarin,TradingOffSovereignty.TheOutcomeofBelarussIntegrationWithRussiaintheSecurityand
DefenceField,OrodekStudiwWschodnich,April29,2013,http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-
commentary/2013-04-29/trading-sovereignty-outcome-belaruss-integration-russiaChrisBiggers,RussianAirbasein
BelarusRemainsinLimbo,Bellingcat,December27,2015,http://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-
europe/2015/12/27/russian-airbase-belarus-remains-limbo/.
140YurasKarmanau(AssociatedPress),BelarusPresidentSaysHeDoesntWantRussianAirBase,Voiceof
America,October6,2015,http://www.voanews.com/content/belarus-president-says-he-does-not-want-russian-air-
base/2993864.htmlChristopherHarress,ScaredbyUkraineWar,BelarusStrongmanLukashenkoMullsDitching
Russia,InternationalBusinessTimes,January31,2015,http://www.ibtimes.com/scared-ukraine-war-belarus-
strongman-lukashenko-mulls-ditching-russia-1801070MikalaiAnishchanka,IsBelarusandRussiasBrotherly
LoveComingtoanEnd?Guardian,May29,2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/28/belarus-
russia-brotherly-love-ukraine-crisis.
141KitGillet,OppositionGroupsinMoldovaUnitetoProtestNewGovernment,NewYorkTimes,January25,
2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/26/world/europe/oppositions-groups-in-moldova-unite-to-protest-new-
government.html.
144JeffreyMankoff,WhyRussiaandTurkeyFight:AHistoryofAntagonism,ForeignAffairs,February24,2016,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2016-02-24/why-russia-and-turkey-fight.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/09/turkey-russia-putin-not-supports-erdogan-in-syria.htmlNews
ConferenceFollowingStateVisittoTurkey,OfficialInternetResourcesofthePresidentofRussia,December1,
2014,http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47126.
148Mankoff,WhyRussiaandTurkeyFightTurkeysDowningofRussianWarplaneWhatWeKnow,BBC,
December1,2015,http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34912581.
149AndreyBiryukov,PutinSaysTurkishStabinBackCausedRussianWarplaneCrash,Bloomberg,November
24,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-24/putin-says-turkish-stab-in-back-caused-russian-
warplane-crash.
150RaziyeAkkocandRolandOliphant,VladimirPutinRefusestoSpeaktoTurkishPresidentOverAnkarasLackof
Apology,Telegraph,November27,2015,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/12020980/Vladimir-Putin-refuses-to-speak-to-Turkish-
president-over-Ankaras-lack-of-apology.html.
151WorstinDecades,NoWaytoImproveforNowKremlinonRussia-TurkeyRelations,RT,February9,2016,
http://www.rt.com/news/331878-russia-turkey-relations-worst/.
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Azerbaijans-Economy-In-Dire-Straits-As-Oil-Prices-Keep-
Tanking.html.
153JackFarchy,BakuSeeksAlternativesasAzerbaijanOilProductionDeclines,FinancialTimes,March12,
2015,http://next.ft.com/content/b86cb5b4-be99-11e4-8036-00144feab7deAzerbaijancountryreport,U.S.Energy
InformationAdministration,http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=AZE.
Guardian,January15,2016,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/15/azerbaijan-forced-to-cut-bread-taxes-
after-widespread-protests.
156Formoreonthis,seeEugeneRumer,RichardSokolsky,andPaulStronski,U.S.PolicyTowardCentralAsia
3.0,CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,January25,2016.http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/01/25/u.s.-
policy-toward-central-asia-3.0/it2s.
157Ibid.
Defense,September28,2015,http://breakingdefense.com/2015/09/russians-in-syria-building-a2ad-bubble-over-
region-breedlove/StevenPifer,RussianNukesinCrimea?ABetterWaytoRespond,BrookingsInstitution,
February2,2015,http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/02/02-russia-nuclear-weapons-crimea-better-
us-response-piferStevenErlanger,NATORatchetsUpMissileDefenseDespiteRussianCriticism,NewYork
Times,May5,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/world/europe/nato-russia-poland.html.
Senttime: 06/30/201602:30:39AM
To: AndrewWood<andrewood40@gmail.com>
Cc: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>







equipment.


close.
approach.
FuelingtheDragon
Gas
Oil
opportunity.47
Schlumberger.
Westernsanctions.
AnyMarketforaBear?
sanctionsregime.
Ukrainiancitizens.
TechnologicalLinks
ComradesinArms
commercialsense.
resources.
economies.
infrastructure.
toChinaasaresult.
andbids.
Notes
2015):1318.
gas/ijra.
2005,
52Ibid.
64Ibid.
project.
Senttime: 07/06/201606:10:40PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.comChrisBort<chrisjb1@ucia.gov>
Cc: EugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
Subject: RussiaandtheSecurityofEurope-CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace
RussiasannexationofCrimeainMarch2014wasthelateststepinMoscowslongprocessofrejectionofthepost
ColdWarEuro-Atlanticsecurityorder,reflectingadeeplyheldviewthatisunlikelytochangeanytimesoon.Western
strategywillneedtoadjusttoRussiasconceptionofitsinterestsandprioritiesinandaroundEurope.
encroachmentonthecountryssecurity,economic,andgeopoliticalinterests,aswellasontheirholdonpowerin
Russia.
defense.ItisreinforcedbyRussianelitesconcernsabouttheinternalweaknessofthecountryanditsdirection.
Italsoservesasatoolfortheelitestomobilizethepopulationinthefaceofexternalthreats.Theelitesrecognize
thatthecountryisinasystemiccrisisbutfearthatsolutionscouldprovedestabilizing.
ThelackofconfidenceintheirdefensecapabilitieshasledRussianmilitaryexpertstoconsiderstrategiesfor
earlynuclearescalationasadeterrentandcountermeasuretotheWestsperceivedconventionalsuperiority.The
WestsplansforimprovingconventionalcapabilitiesandmissiledefensesareerodingRussianmilitaryplanners
confidenceintheirnucleardeterrent.
peripheryofRussiaisprecariousandaddstotheinternalchallengesfacingthecountry.Russianplannersare
beingconfrontedwitharegionrifewithinstability,localconflicts,andforeignpowerstheyviewascompeting
withoropenlyhostiletoRussiaineverystrategicdirection.
Inthisenvironment,Russiaisresortingtoanarrayoftoolsfromnuclearsaberrattlingtointimidationofsmaller,
weakerneighborstoinformationwarfare,cyberoperations,subversion,bribery,andotherpoliticalandeconomic
measuresasmeansofhybridwarfareorcontinuationofpoliticsbyallavailablemeans.
securityguarantee,thesesixbattlegroundstatesremaininwhatMoscowperceivesasitssphereofprivileged
interests.Itispreparedtousemilitaryforcetokeeptheminit.AstheWestisnotpreparedtoconsignthese
statestotheRussiansphere,theybecomethearenaforEast-Westcompetition.
NATOsArticle5securityguaranteeofitsmembersseriously,andthatitisnotpreparedtotestthatguarantee
directly.RussianleaderswenttowartwicetopreventGeorgiaandUkrainefromeventuallyastheysawit
joiningNATO.RatherthanchallengeNATOdirectly,Moscowwillcontinuetorelyonitswidearrayofhybrid
warfaremethodstounderminememberstatesconfidenceinthealliance.
frontlinestateswillhaveastabilizingeffectonthestandoffbetweenNATOandRussia.NATOsactionsinthe
aftermathoftheUkrainecrisis,intendedtoshoreupthefrontlinestates,havetriggereddisproportionateRussian
responses,includingdeploymentofanti-accessandarea-denial(A2/AD)capabilitiestoCrimeaandKaliningrad
aswellasthreatstodeploynuclearweaponsthere.
AbsentmajorchangesinRussias(orNATOs)outlook,thisadversarialrelationshipwillremainakeyfeatureof
theEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderfortheforeseeablefuture.Eventually,itwilltakeapolitical,notamilitary,
solutiontoresolvethisstandoff.
Introduction
TheannexationofCrimeabyRussiainMarch2014andtheundeclaredwaragainstUkrainethatfollowedmarkedthe
endofthepostColdWarperiodinEuropeanhistory.Russianactionshavedestroyedkeyelementsofboththepost
ColdWarsecuritysystemandthepostWorldWarIIsecuritysysteminEuropethathadsurvivedfornearlythree-
quartersofacentury.ThedamagedonebyRussianactionsisdeepandlasting,withpre-andpost-Ukraineembodying
acleardividinglineinEuropeansecurityaffairs.AnewgeopoliticaldivisionofEuropehasemergedaswell.Puttingthe
piecesbacktogetherinUkraineandshoringupaunitedEuropewillstretchU.S.capabilities.Thesetwinchallengeswill
remainastrategicimperativeforU.S.policymakersabsentamajorshiftinRussianpositionswithrespecttoEuropean
securityahighlyunlikelyoccurrencewithoutachangeinthecountrysleadershipandgoverningideology.
foreignpolicyestablishments.Few,ifany,analystsoneithersideoftheAtlantichadpredictedthatMoscowwould
movetodestroywhatwasenvisionedattheendoftheColdWarasEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfandits
neighbors.1RussianactionsagainstUkrainecameasasurpriseevenformanyseasonedRussianforeignpolicy
observers.2ThedecisiontoseizeandsubsequentlyannexCrimeaandtolaunchthewarineasternUkraineinsupport
ofRussian-inspiredseparatistswasmostlikelypartofaspontaneous,panickyresponsebyMoscowtotherapidly
changingpoliticalenvironmentinUkraineratherthananelementofalong-term,well-thought-out,deliberatestrategy.3
However,acarefulexaminationofRussiasownnarrativeaboutEuropeanandEurasiansecurity,anditsevolutionsince
theendoftheColdWar,suggeststhatRussianactionsinUkrainewereentirelylogical,perhapseveninevitable,asan
extensionofRussianthreatperceptions.AsseenfromMoscow,therapidchangesinUkrainianpoliticsthecollapse
ofthepresidencyofViktorYanukovychandthecomingtopowerofapoliticalcoalitionadvocatingUkrainespro-
EuropeanandEuro-Atlanticorientation,includingeventualmembershipintheEuropeanUnion(EU)andtheNorth
AtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO)carriedwiththemprofoundgeopoliticalconsequencesforRussia:theysignaled
theemergenceofnewthreatstoRussiassecurityrightatitsdoorstep,threatsthatnoRussianleaderislikelytotolerate
withoutawholesalechangeinthecountrysideologyandunderstandingofitsnationalsecurity.
FromMoscowsperspective,itsactionsinUkrainerepresentedquintessentiallyaseriesofnecessarydefensive,rather
thanoffensiveandexpansionist,measuresthatwereintendedtopreventanevenmoreseveregeopoliticalimbalanceon
thecontinentresultingfromNATOandEUexpansionintoCentralandEasternEurope.Attherootoftheseactions
wasasenseofvulnerabilityratherthanconfidenceinMoscowsrelationswiththeWest.Ironically,thesecurity
environmentaroundtheperipheryofRussiathathasemergedasaresultoftheannexationofCrimeaandthe
subsequentaggressionagainstUkraineundoubtedlyleavesRussianmilitaryplannerswithagreatersenseof
vulnerability.
Europeansecurity.Aftertheideologicalandmilitarystandoffthathaddividedthecontinentformorethanfourdecades,
EuropeincludingRussiawascomingtogetheronthebasisofanewvision,embracedbyallasthefoundationfora
newsecurityorder.
Thatsecurityorder,describedbyWesternleadersasEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors,
wouldnotrelyonsuchfamiliarconceptsasbalanceofpowerorbalanceofintereststomaintainpeaceonthecontinent.
ItwouldinsteadrelyonallEuropeannationsincludingRussiamaintainingacommitmenttosharedvaluesand
adherencetoasetofkeyprinciplestoguidetheirforeignandsecuritypolicies.Theseprincipleswererespectingthe
independence,sovereignty,andterritorialintegrityofallnationsrefrainingfromusingforcetosettleinternational
disputesallowingfreedomofchoicebyallstatestopursuetheirforeignpoliciesandenterintoalliancesand
demonstratingrespectforfundamentalhumanrightsandpersonalfreedomsinstatesdomesticpoliticalarrangements.
governmentofallEuropeannations,Canada,andtheUnitedStatescametogetherin1990tosigntheCharterofParis
foraNewEurope.5Inthatdocument,theywelcomedtheneweraofdemocracy,peaceandunityinEuropeand,
amongotherthings,pledgedtosettledisputesbypeacefulmeansanddefenddemocraticinstitutionsagainstactivities
whichviolatetheindependence,sovereignequalityorterritorialintegrityoftheparticipatingStates.
TheCharterofPariswasjoinedbytheSovietUnion,whosecommitmentswereassumedbyRussiauponitsdissolution
in1991.UkraineandotherformerSovietstatesalsojoinedtheOrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope,
whichwasestablishedtoimplementthevisionoftheCharterofParis.
AnothermajorstepintheevolutionofEuropewasthesigningin1992oftheMaastrichtTreaty.6Itwasamilestonein
theprocessofEuropeanintegrationalsoonthebasisofsharedvaluesthattransformedtheEuropeanCommunity
intotheEuropeanUnion.TheEUwouldpursuethegoalsofpromotingandstrengtheningdemocraticinstitutions,
establishingamonetaryunion,anddevelopingacommonforeignandsecuritypolicy.
landscape,havingconsentedtoshedtheouterandinnerempirespeacefullyinthelate1980sandearly1990s.Atthe
time,boththeSovietgovernmentandthegovernmentofthenewRussianstatedeclaredanddemonstratedindeedtheir
commitmenttoupholdtheunderlyingprinciplesofEuropeansecurityandstability.
EarlySignsofTrouble
However,whiletherestofthecontinentcelebratedthedawnofanewpeacefulandharmoniouserainEuropeanhistory
andembracedthevisionofEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors,Russiawashavingsecond
thoughts.TheideaofaEuropeansecuritysystembasedonavagueconceptofsharedvaluesdidnotsitwellwiththe
Russianforeignpolicyandsecurityestablishment.Thus,speakingataforeignministryconferencedevotedtoa
discussionofanewforeignpolicyconceptoftheRussianFederation,thenforeignministerAndreyKozyrevdeclared
thatRussiamustbecomeanormalgreatpower.7ThechairmanoftheForeignAffairsCommitteeoftheRussian
Duma,YevgeniyAmbartsumov,welcomedtheforeignministersproposalandwentfurther,declaringthatthetimehad
cometoabandonidealisticdeclarationsinfavorofrealpolitik.8
AlthoughtheRussiangovernmentwaspreoccupiedatthetimewithaseeminglyendlesssuccessionofdomesticcrises
thatfollowedthedissolutionoftheSovietUnion,includingacollapsingeconomyandfiercepoliticalstruggleinthe
Russianparliament,wherethereformagendaranintostrongopposition,theRussianforeignpolicyestablishment
articulatedamoreambitiousvisionofthestatesintereststhanthedirestateofRussiasdomesticpoliticsandeconomy
mighthavesuggested.Insharpcontrasttohisearlierconciliatorystatements,Ambartsumovexplicitlylaidclaimto
Russiasspecialrights,evenresponsibilities,throughouttheterritoriesoftheformerSovietstatesandsuggestedthat
Russianintereststranscendedthebordersofthesenewlyindependentstates.9SergeyKaraganov,aleadingforeign
policyscholarandfounderoftheCouncilonForeignandDefensePolicy,wroteinasimilarveinthatRussiahadnotjust
asetofinterests,butaspecialmissionaheavycrosstobearintheterritoriesoftheformerSovietUnion.10
RussiahadinheriteditsnationalsecurityestablishmentfromtheSovietUnion.Ambartsumov,Kozyrev,andKaraganov
representedanewgenerationofforeignpolicythinkersandpractitionerswithrelativelyprogressiveattitudeswhocould
havebeenexpectedtoholdmoreenlightenedviewsonrelationswithneighboringstatesandthepostColdWar
securityarrangementsinEurope.ButtheRussianmilitary,securityservices,anddiplomaticestablishmentwereall
productsoftheColdWarinwhichmistrustoftheWestwasdeepandnoteasilyovercomebydeclarationsofpeaceful
intentionsbyEuropeanandU.S.leaders.11
TheseearlysignalsthatsharedvaluesmaynotbesufficientforRussiaasthebasisforEuropeansecurityandstability
couldhaveremainedalargelyinconsequentialdiscourseintherelativelynarrowandself-containedcommunityof
Russianforeignpolicyexperts.Foreignpolicyinthe1990stookabackseattodomesticaffairs,especiallytheeconomy,
whichwasthedominantconcernofthecountryselitesandthegeneralpublic.However,thedebatewasbroughttothe
foreofRussiandomesticpoliticsandEuropeandiscussionsaboutthecontinentssecurityarchitecturebytwocritically
importantprocesses:enlargementoftheEUandNATO.
understandingofPolandsdesiretojoinNATO.12Kozyrevreportedlyechoedthatsentimentdespitehavingbeen
opposedtotheideapreviously.However,justafewweekslater,inOctober1993,theRussianpresidentsentaletter
tothenU.S.presidentBillClintonstatinghisstrongoppositiontomembershipintheallianceforPolandoranyother
CentralorEasternEuropeancountry.13Yeltsinsapparentchangeofpositionwasreportedlyduetopressurefromthe
Russianmilitaryestablishment,whichstillconsideredNATOathreat.14
ThelaunchofanactivediscussioninEuropeandtheUnitedStatesaboutNATOenlargementtransformedtheinitial
cracksintheEuropeansecuritylandscapeintoamajordividebetweenRussiaandmostoftherestofEurope.NATO
alliesandaspirantsmaintainedthatexpandingthealliancewasintendednotasahostilestepagainstRussia,butthat
bringingthezoneofstabilityandsecurityclosertoRussiasborderwouldonlybenefitMoscow.Russian
counterargumentswerepreciselytheopposite,stressingthemilitarycapabilitiesthatNATOexpansionwouldinevitably
bringclosertoRussianborders.(SeeRussiangovernmentthinktankmapsshowingNATOenlargementinfigures1
and2.)
RussianoppositiontoNATOenlargementwassharedbypoliticiansacrossthepoliticalspectrum.Theconservative
wingofRussianpoliticsrepresentedbythenationalistsandtheCommunistsopposedthealliancesexpansionfor
geopoliticalandideologicalreasons.Theliberalsandreformersopposeditbecausetheysawitasdamagingtotheir
alreadytenuouspositioninRussiandomesticpolitics,vulnerabletocriticismfromopponentswhoaccusedthemof
betrayingRussiannationalinterestandbeingagentsoftheWest.15
Thevalues-basedapproachtoEuropeansecuritywasfailingtogetrecognitioninRussiaforseveralreasons:after
nearlythree-quartersofacenturyunderanideologicallydrivenandfailedregime,thepopulationhadlittleconfidencein
ideasingeneralthismistrustwasreinforcedbythenewRussiangovernmentsfailuretodeliveranddemonstratetothe
publicthetangiblebenefitsofthenewrulingideologyofthemarketanddemocracy,asthecountrylimpedfromone
crisistothenext.
AfterbeingcutofffromWesternpoliticalsciencefordecades,Russianinternationalrelationsscholarswereavidly
absorbingideasputforthbyleadingWesternpoliticalscientists.ThemostprominentamongthemwereSamuel
HuntingtonandZbigniewBrzezinski,whosebooksTheClashofCivilizationsandtheRemakingofWorldOrder
andTheGrandChessboardrespectivelyapproachedcontemporaryinternationalrelationsfrompointsofviewthat
rejectedtheveryideaofavalues-basedsecuritysysteminEuropeandEurasia.16Huntingtonsvolume,asthetitle
suggests,predictedaconflictpittingWesterncivilizationanditsliberalideologyagainstothercivilizationsguidedby
otherideas.BrzezinskiarguedthatitwasimportantfortheUnitedStatestopreventanothermajorpowerreadRussia
fromdominatingtheEurasianlandmass.
periphery.18
Washingtonsforeignpolicyestablishment,itwaseasyforRussianforeignandnationalsecuritypolicymakers,manyof
themproductsoftheColdWar,tobeskepticalofU.S.andalliesreassurancesaboutvalues-basedsecurity
arrangementsforEuropeandEurasia.WhiletheideaofNATOextendingitsmembershipbeyondEuropewasnot
broughtupeveninthemostambitiousdiscussionsofthealliancesfutureatthetime,NATOdidextenditsreachinto
CentralAsiathroughitsPartnershipforPeaceprogram.17ThatcouldhavebeeninterpretedbyRussianmilitary
plannersasamaneuvertoencircleRussia,notwithstandingthefactthatRussiaitselfhadjoinedthePartnershipfor
Peace.
AnotherfactorshapingRussianthreatperceptionswithrespecttoNATOandEuropeansecuritywastheconflictinthe
formerYugoslavia.ForRussia,stillreelingfromthedissolutionoftheSovietUnionandstrugglingtoovercomemultiple
politicalandeconomicchallenges,theviolentbreakupofYugoslaviawasacontinuingreminderofthedangersithad
barelyescaped.TheRussiangovernmentvehementlyopposedNATOsinterventioninYugoslaviaas,amongother
reasons,apotentialprecedentforsimilaractionbyNATOinRussiaorarounditsperiphery.18TheRussianmilitarys
brutaltacticsduringthe19941996warinChechnyadrewwidespreadcondemnationfromtheWest.Thepossibilityof
aNATOinterventioninthebreakawayrepublic,nomatterhowimprobabletomostseasonedobservers,was
nonethelesswidelydiscussedinRussia.19
considerationsonlyreinforcedRussianoppositiontothecampaignandresistancetoNATOsenlargement.Fromthe
standpointofRussiannationalsecurityplanners,theextraditionandtrialoftheformerYugoslavstrongmanSlobodan
MiloeviundoubtedlyservedasareminderthatatsomefuturetimeaweakenedRussiangovernmentcouldbeforced
tosurrendertheleadersofthemilitarycampaigninChechnyaandthattheywouldfindthemselvesontrialforwar
crimesbeforeaninternationaltribunal.20
FromthestandpointofRussiannationalsecurityplanners,theonlyguaranteeagainstsucheventswasthevastnuclear
arsenalRussiahadinheritedfromtheSovietUnion.Russiannationalsecuritydocumentsfromthe1990sonwardhave
stressedtheuniqueroleofnuclearweaponsastheultimateperhapseventheonlyguaranteeofRussiansovereignty
andstrategicindependence.21
ButalthoughnuclearweaponswereindispensableasaguaranteeagainstWesterninterventioninRussia,theywerefar
lessusefulwhenitcametointerveningincrisesbeyondRussiasbordersandprojectingMoscowsinterestsbeyondthe
borders.ThenucleararsenalwasoflittleusewhenitcametodeterringNATOenlargementeverclosertoRussian
bordersandsecuringasphereofinfluenceforRussiaarounditsperipheryalong-standingRussianobjective
articulatedasearlyas1992byleadingRussianforeignpolicythinkersandpractitioners.Forthat,Russiawouldhaveto
rebuilditsconventionalcapabilities,whichinturnwouldrequireacommitmentofsignificanteconomicresources.
AStrongWarning
Duringthefirstdecadeofthetwenty-firstcentury,Russiaenjoyedamajoreconomicrebound.Inthedecadefromthe
financialcollapseof1998totheendofVladimirPutinssecondpresidentialtermin2008,Russiangrossdomestic
product(GDP)grewfromjustunder$300billiontonearly$1.7trillionincurrentprices.22Astheeconomyrebounded
anddomesticpoliticsstabilized,theRussiangovernmentassumedafarmoreprominentpositionintheinternational
arenathanduringthe1990s.Russiabecameafull-fledgedmemberoftheG8industrializedeconomiesandasserted
itselfasastrongandindependentvoiceonmajorissues,fromEuropeansecuritytothewarinIraq.
ThemostnotableandforcefulstatementonforeignandsecuritypolicyfromthatperiodcamefromPutinpersonally,
deliveredattheMunichSecurityConferencein2007.Thespeech,describedbysomeintheaudienceasColdWar
like,clearlylaidoutRussianrejectionofthepostColdWarsecurityorderinEurope.23TheRussianpresident
characterizedNATOenlargementasaprovocativeunilaterallandgrabbytheU.S.-ledallianceseekingtoexpandits
sphereofinfluence.InputtingitsmilitaryforcesrightuptoRussiasborder,Putinsaid,NATOwasinviolationof
assurancesgiventoRussiaattheendoftheColdWar.Thisunilateral,unipolar,U.S.-centricsecuritymodel,he
concluded,wasunacceptable.
Moreover,accordingtothenarrativewidelyheldinRussiasnationalsecurityestablishment,NATOenlargementwas
notonlyalandgrabthatupsetthegeopoliticalbalanceinEurope,butitalsoconstitutedaviolationofassurancesgiven
byWesternleaderstothenSovietpresidentMikhailGorbachevthatinexchangeforGermanysreunificationand
NATOmembership,thealliancewouldnotexpandeastward.24Thenatureofthisclaimhasbeenrepeatedly
disputed.25Anddocumentaryevidencetosupportithasbeenambiguousatbesttosaynothingofitspractical
irrelevance,fornobody,notevenRussianofficials,proposestoundoNATOenlargement.Still,theideathattheWest
brokeitspromisehasbecomeanintegralpartofRussiandiscussionsaboutpostColdWarsecurityinEurope.
provocativeunilaterallandgrabbytheU.S.-ledallianceseeking
toexpanditssphereofinfluence.
RussianleadersopposedEuropespostColdWarsecurityorderalsoonideologicalgrounds.TheycriticizedU.S.and
EuropeaneffortstopromotedemocracyaroundtheperipheryofRussiaasathinlydisguisedpursuitoftheWests
expandedsphereofinfluence.26Theyalsoviewedtheeffortsasadeeplydestabilizingundertakingthatthreatenedthe
stabilityandsecurityofneighboringstatesandevenheldoutthepossibilityofunderminingRussiasownhard-won
domesticstability.Beyondthat,thepushbytheWesttopromotedemocracyinsideRussiawasdeclaredbyRussian
leadersasaviolationofRussiansovereigntyandpotentiallydestabilizinganddeeplythreateningtothePutin
administrationitself.
AsRussiasowndomesticpoliticstookonamoreauthoritarianturnandPutinconsolidatedmorepower,hecame
undercriticismfromWesternleaders.27CombinedwithenthusiasticWesternexpressionsofsupportfortheRose
RevolutioninGeorgiain2003andtheOrangeRevolutioninUkrainein20042005bothcrisesinwhichRussiaand
theWestwerepittedagainsteachotherthroughproxyfactionstheWestssupportfordemocracythroughtheever-
expandingreachoftheEUandNATOemergedasthemostcontentiousissueinrelationswithRussia.Buildingonthe
majorthemeofhisMunichaddress,PutindeliveredafurtherwarningtoNATOatthealliances2008Bucharest
summit.NATOspromiseoffuturemembershiptoGeorgiaandUkraine,hesaid,constitutedadirectthreatto
Russiansecurity.Inanominouspreviewoffutureevents,hespokeofthehistorictiesbetweenRussiaandtheethnic
RussianpopulationsofeasternUkraineandCrimeaandthepopulationsdesireforclosetieswiththemotherland.28
AsiftheRussianpresidentstwowarningswerenotenough,thewarwithGeorgiain2008sentafurthermessagetothe
West,aswellastoRussiasneighbors,thatPutinmeantwhathesaid.InastatementonRussiantelevisioninthe
immediateaftermathofthewarinGeorgia,thenpresidentDmitryMedvedevdeclaredcountriesaroundRussias
peripheryasasphereofRussiasprivilegedinterests.29NostatementdeliveredbyaRussianleaderpriortothewar
of2008hadsignaledwithgreaterclarityMoscowsrejectionofavalues-basedsecuritysysteminEurope.Medvedev
woulddividethecontinentintospheresofinterestsandinfluence,andhewasfullycommittedtodefendRussiassphere
fromencroachmentbyotherpowers.
ThewarinGeorgiadeliveredtwoverydistinctmessagestotwodifferentaudiences.TotheWest,themessagewasto
stayoutofthesphereofRussiasprivilegedinterests.ToRussia,themessagewasthatdespitethesuccessfulcampaign
againstitstinyneighbor,theRussianmilitarywasinneedoffar-reachingreform.30Russianeededthecapabilitybeyond
itsnucleararsenaltodefenditsinterestsanddeterthosewhomightconsiderinfringingonthem.Themilitaryreform
launchedintheaftermathofthewarinGeorgiaandaprogramofmilitarymodernizationwereintendedtogiveRussia
thecapabilitytodojustthat.31
TheBreak
The20082012interregnumbetweenPutinssecondandthirdtermsaspresidentwasaperiodofrelativecalmin
RussiasrelationswiththeWest.CombinedwiththeresetwithRussiabeginningin2009bytheadministrationofU.S.
PresidentBarackObama,otherimperativesthewarinAfghanistan,Iransnuclearprogram,thecrisisinLibyatook
precedenceoverNATOenlargement.Atthesametime,newlylauncheddebatesinsideRussiaaboutdomesticpolitical
andeconomicmodernizationheldouttheprospectofRussiareturningtothepathofdemocratizationandamore
cooperativerelationshipwiththeWest.32Inaddition,NATOlackedthenecessaryconsensustopushforGeorgias
membershipintheallianceintheaftermathofthewarof2008.Andin2010,UkraineremovedNATOmembership
fromitslistofnationalsecurityprioritiesaltogether.33
ThecalmwasbrokenbydevelopmentsinsideRussia.PutinsdecisiontoreclaimthepresidencyfromMedvedevwas
metwithlarge-scaleprotestsunprecedentedinthehistoryofmodernRussiabyproponentsoffurtherpoliticaland
economicreformsthathadbeendebatedduringMedvedevspresidency.34TheprotestsweregreetedintheWestasa
manifestationofRussiasdemocraticspiritandpoliticalreawakening.35
TheresponsefromthePutinadministrationwasharsh.ItincludedaseriesofnewlegislativestepstolimittheRussian
publicsspaceforpoliticalprotestscourtactionsagainstprotestersandamediacampaignaccusingtheWestof
instigatingprotestsinRussiatoundermineandweakenit.36TheWestwaspromotinginRussiavaluesthatwerealiento
Russiansociety,theKremlincharged,embracingthesloganRussiaisnotEurope.37Putinsthirdtermbeganwitha
clearjuxtapositionofRussiavs.theWestasaconflictdrivenbydifferentvaluessystems.Twodecadesaftersigningon
tothevisionofEuropewhole,free,andatpeacewithitselfanditsneighbors,Russiafinallyabandonedit.
PutinsthirdtermbeganwithaclearjuxtapositionofRussiavs.
theWestasaconflictdrivenbydifferentvaluessystems.
ThisbreakalsomanifesteditselfinRussianforeignpolicy,particularlyinrelationswiththeformerSovietstates.Building
onearlierRussianpronouncementsaboutasphereofinfluenceandinterests,andthedangerposedbytheWests
geopoliticalexpansion,PutinelevatedEurasianintegrationthegatheringoftheformerSovietstatesaroundRussiato
thetopofhisforeignpolicyagendaforhisthirdterm.38BuildingontheRussia-Kazakhstan-Belaruscustomsunion
establishedin2000,PutinproposedtomovetowardaCommonEconomicSpace,eventuallyproceedingtoa
politicalEurasianunion,allvaguelypatternedontheEUandrathertransparentlyintendedtocreatearegional
counterweighttoit.InPutinswords,theEurasianunionwouldbecomeapowerfulsupranationalassociationcapable
ofbecomingoneofthepolesinthemodernworldareferencetothelong-standingRussianpreferencefora
multipolarinternationalsystemandrejectionoftheU.S.-dominatedunipolarworld.39
PutinspolicyofEurasianintegrationstoodindirectconflictwiththeEUsEuropeanNeighborhoodPolicy,whichis
intendedtobringcountriesontheEUseasternbordersclosertoitbyofferingthemAssociationAgreements.40These
agreementsaredesignedtopromotepolitical,economic,andrule-of-lawreformsincountriesofEasternEuropeand
encouragetheircloserpoliticalandcommercialtiestotheEU.SeveralEasternEuropeancountriesArmenia,Georgia,
Moldova,andUkrainewereintheprocessofnegotiatingAssociationAgreementswiththeEUwhenPutin
announcedhisvisionofEurasianintegration.Ukrainewasthelargestamongthemandstrategicallythemostimportant
forRussia.
ThegovernmentofUkrainethesecondmostpopulousformerSovietrepublicandthecriticalbridgebetweenRussia
andEuropewasengagedintwosimultaneousnegotiations.OnewaswithRussiaaboutjoiningitseconomic
integrationprojecttheotherwaswiththeEUaboutanAssociationAgreement.Withthetwodeemedincompatible,
Kyivwouldeventuallyhavetochooseoneortheother.41
ForRussia,forPutinpersonally,thelossofUkrainetotheEUwouldnotbeatolerableoutcome.Thiswasdueto
severalreasons.In2004,PutinscandidateforthepresidencyofUkraine,ViktorYanukovych,wasdefeatedbythe
OrangeRevolutionencouragedbytheWest.AnotherdefeatofsimilarmagnitudeatthehandsoftheEUwasnotan
optionfortheRussianpresidentafterhehadelevatedEurasianintegrationtothetopofhispolicyagendaasa
counterweighttotheUnitedStatesandtheEU.
Moreover,allformerSovietsatellitesthathadjoinedtheEUalsojoinedNATO.UkrainesAssociationAgreementwith
theEUwasundoubtedlyseenbytheKremlinasasteptowardmembershipintheEUand,eventually,inNATO.This
wouldallowNATOspresencewithin300milesofMoscow.AsseenfromMoscow,thiswouldalsomeanthatkey
UkrainiandefenseenterprisesthatsuppliedtheRussianmilitarywithcriticalcomponentswouldbelocatedonNATO
territory.42
AnothersignificantdependenceofRussiaonUkrainehastodowithenergysuppliestoEurope.Ukraineisthecritical
transitcountry,withasmuchashalfofRussiangasexportedtoEuropedeliveredthroughtheDruzhbapipelinethat
crossesUkraine.43U.S.andEuropeanleadershavelongcomplainedaboutEuropesdependenceonRussiangasand
theinfluenceitgivesMoscowoverthecontinent.SomehavearguedforNATOtotakeonthemissionofsecuring
Europesenergysupply.44ForRussia,theprospectofUkrainejoiningNATOorbecomingasatelliteoftheEUwould
translateintoanunacceptablelossofpowerandinfluence.
Notwithstandingallthesestrategicconsiderations,thecrisisinUkraineapparentlycameasasurprisefortheKremlin.45
TheseverityofitsresponsetothecrisistheannexationofCrimea,thewarineasternUkraine,thevirulentpolitical
propagandacampaignagainstthenewgovernmentofUkraineandtheWestforsupportingit,andthedestructionofthe
entirepostColdWarEuropeansecuritysystemreflecttheperceptionsofthreatassociatedbyRussiannational
securityelitewiththepotentiallossofUkrainetoNATOandtheEU.
TheNewOldThreat
TheshockwavesinEurope,intheUnitedStates,andaroundtheperipheryofRussiafromRussianactionsinUkraine
(andsubsequentlyinSyria)haveamountedtoafundamentalreassessmentofRussia,itsmilitarycapabilities,andits
resolvetousethem.46TheperceptionofRussiaasasecond-ratepower,whosemilitarycapabilitieswerebadly
damagedbytheimplosionoftheSovietstateandneverrecovered,hasbeenreplacedwithnewlyalarmedassessments
oftheRussianmilitarythreatnotseenbyWesternpublicsinageneration.47EventheRussianNavy,longwrittenofffor
deadasapresenceinthehighseas,isthesubjectofanew,widelypublicizedreportbytheU.S.OfficeofNaval
Intelligence.48
Indeed,theswiftandapparentlyefficienttakeoverofCrimea,themilitaryinterventionandcovertoperationineastern
Ukraine,andmostrecentlythemissioninSyriahavehadatransformationaleffectontheimageoftheRussianmilitary
abroadandathome.However,withtheseaccomplishmentsonandoffthebattlefieldcameaseriesofsoberingRussian
reassessmentsofthenewsecurityenvironmentsurroundingRussiainpost-postColdWarEuropeandEurasia.
Paradoxically,Russianmilitarysuccesseshaveresultedinnewthreatsandnewchallenges,andtheyhavegenerateda
profoundfeelingofuneaseamongRussianmilitaryexperts.ThreatassessmentsfoundinofficialRussiandocuments,
statementsoftopofficials,andprivate-sectorcommentatorsdescribeauniformlybleakpicture.Inthewordsofone
authoritativeobserver,EuropesfailuretosecureitselfbehindabufferzoneestablishedwiththehelpoftheEUs
EasternPartnership,whichincludesArmenia,Azerbaijan,Belarus,Georgia,Moldova,andUkraine,hasmeantthat
Russiacannothidebehindabufferzoneeither.49Russiacannolongercountonthesecountriesasfriendlyandcapable
ofshieldingRussiaswesternandsouthernborders.
RussiaandcentersforcybersecurityandinformationwarfareintheBalticstatesmakeupthenewthreatenvironment
Russiandefenseplannersarehavingtoconfront.Andthatisnoteventhecompletelist,whichomitsawiderangeofreal
andpotentialthreatsfromtheself-proclaimedIslamicStatespresenceinIraqandSyriatoJapansnewlegislation
governingtheuseofitsSelf-DefenseForcesabroad.Thisisthenewthreatenvironmentinwhichthearmedforcesof
theRussianstatehavetocarryouttheirmissionofdefendingandprotectingthesovereigntyoftheRussianstate,noted
DefenseMinisterSergeiShoigu,appearingbeforetheyear-endmeetingofseniorMinistryofDefenseofficialsattended
byPutin.50
themes.51ThedocumentidentifiedtheUnitedStatesanditsalliesastheprincipalthreattoRussia,astheWestseeksto
hangontoitsdominantpositionintheworld.NATOenlargementcontinuesapace,withtheallianceaspiringtoaglobal
mission.NATO,accordingtothenewdocument,underminesinternationalsecurity,internationallaw,andarms-control
treatiesacquiresnewmilitarycapabilitiesanddeploysitsmilitaryinfrastructureeverclosertotheterritoryofthe
RussianFederation,threateningitssecurity.InUkraine,thedocumentcontinues,NATOandtheEUhavesupportedan
unconstitutionalcoupthattriggeredaprofoundsplitinUkrainiansocietyandresultedinanewsourceofinstabilityin
Europe.
intelligence,GeneralIgorSergun.52Writingin2015,heassertedthatthelong-termU.S.goalwastoencircleRussia
andChinawitharingofregimesloyaltotheUnitedStatesandflashpointsthatwouldreliablypreventRussiafrom
carryingoutitsEurasianintegrationproject.
FromthepointofviewofMoscow,NATOsreinforcementsoftheBalticstatesandPolandtodateandinthefuture
havebrokenyetanotherkeypromisegiventoRussiabythealliesnottostationpermanentlysubstantialcombat
forcesontheterritoriesofnewmembers.Regardlessofthecaveatthatthepromisewasconditionedonthecurrent
andforeseeablesecurityenvironment,whichwasupendedbytheannexationofCrimeaandaggressionineastern
UkrainetherecanbelittledoubtthatthereinforcementsareperceivedbyRussiasnationalsecurityestablishmentas
itsworstexpectationscomingtrue.53Whetherthesereinforcementswillconstituteapermanentorpersistentpresenceis
likelytobeoflittleconsequenceforRussiananalysts,foreitheronewouldconstituteacontinuousandineffect
permanentmilitarypresenceofNATOtroopsintheseforwardareas.
ItstheEconomy...
spokesmen,iscompoundedbytheunenviablestateofitseconomy.54Gonearethehighratesofgrowthtypicalofthe
firsttwotermsofthePutinpresidencythatmadepossibletherecoveryofthecountryseconomichealthaswellasits
internationalstandingandmilitarycapabilities.TheinabilityoftheRussianeconomytocompeteintheglobal
marketplaceanditsrelianceontheoldmodelofdevelopmentbasedonexportsofrawmaterialshavebeenelevatedin
thenewnationalsecuritystrategytotherankofthemainstrategicthreatsto[Russias]nationalsecurityinthesphereof
theeconomy.55ThetasknowbeforeRussianpolicymakersistodevelopanewmodelofeconomicgrowth,forthe
oldonehasoutliveditsusefulness.ThisthemehasbeenstressedbytopofficialsinRussia,includingKremlinChiefof
StaffSergeiIvanov,who,withcandorrareforaseniorKremlinofficial,admittedthatthecountryseconomicwoes
wereduelargelytofailuretoreformduringthefatyears.56SecurityCouncilSecretaryNikolaiPatrushev,too,has
stressedtheneedtojump-starttheRussianeconomyasamatterofnationalsecurity.57
FromthepointofviewofMoscow,NATOsreinforcementsof
theBalticstatesandPolandhavebrokenyetanotherkey
Russianforeignpolicyandnationalsecurityexpertsfromresearchinstitutesandacademiahaveechoedthesamesense
ofalarmaboutnewchallengesfacingRussiaasfoundinofficialgovernmentstatementsanddocuments.Theyhave
stressedtheincreasinglychaotic,seeminglyall-against-allnatureoftheinternationalsystemandtheweakeningofthe
maincentersofglobalpower,includingtheUnitedStatesandEurope.58However,thatishardlyacausefor
celebration,forRussiaisfindingitselfwithoutreliablepartnersinthissituation(therelationshipwithChinaistreatedwith
cautioninthiscontexttimewilltellhowitturnsout).59AsaresultoftheUkrainecrisisandthebreakwiththeWest,
Russiahasbeenleft,asCarnegiesDmitriTreninputit,aloneagainstall.60
crisis.61Thebiggestblowwasdealtbythecollapseinoilpricesandtheendoftheglobalcommoditiesboom.Making
mattersworsewasacombinationofshrinkingGDP,chroniclackofinvestment,currencydevaluation,lossofaccessto
Westerncapitalmarkets,andhighinflation.Thepoliticalenvironmentwasnobetter,duetotheescalationofmilitary
activitiesabroad,theintensifyingcrackdownontheopposition,andthemurderofoppositionpoliticianBorisNemtsov.
Takentogether,thesewereallsignsoffundamentalproblemsforapoliticalleadershipthatwassteadfastlyresisting
comprehensivereforms.Stagnationandthefailuretocarryoutfar-reachingeconomic,political,andtechnological
modernizationcouldhavemajorsecurityimplications.Withoutreforms,Karaganovwarnedatthegatheringofthe
establishmentCouncilonForeignandDefensePolicy,defeatawaits[Russia]inthefuturepolitical,economic,and
military-strategiccompetitionofthetwenty-firstcentury.62HermanGref,theheadofthemajoritystate-ownedbiggest
RussianbankSberbank,echoedthesewordsinearly2016,when,speakingatapublicgatheringofeconomistsand
seniorgovernmentofficials,hedescribedRussiaasalosercountry.63
NoLightattheEnd
TheseandothersimilarlygloomyassessmentsthathavepermeatedtheentirespectrumofRussianpoliticalopinion,
fromofficialgovernmentdocumentsandestablishmentfigurestoscholarsatresearchinstitutionstooppositionfigures,
pointtoaprofoundsenseofinsecurityinRussiasestablishmentcircles.64Goneistheconfidenceofthefirsttwo
presidentialtermsofVladimirPutin.TheearlybravuraresponsetoWesternsanctionsanddeclarationsthatRussian
industrycanmorethanmakeupforthelossofimportedgoodsandgrowthankstoimportsubstitutionandthecheaper
Russianrublehavebeenderidedasdelusional.65Someofthemostalarmistcommentatorsgosofarastoclaimthatthe
Russianeconomyisbackslidingintothecategoryofindustrialandevenpreindustrialeconomies,rapidlyfallingbehindto
thepointwhereonedayitcouldceasetobeanindependentactorintheinternationalarena.66Asasignofthe
prevailinggloomamongRussianeconomicanalysts,includingseniorgovernmentofficials,theendofthecurrent
economiccrisis,whichsomebelieveRussiaisalreadyapproaching,maynotleadtogrowthinstead,inthewordsofthe
firstdeputychairoftheCentralBankofRussia,XeniaYudayeva,itwillmarkthebeginningofeternalorlong-term
stagnation.67
ThisbriefoverviewofthenarrativeinofficialRussianoutletsandsocietaldiscoursepointstoalackofconfidenceon
thepartofRussianelitesintheirleadership,intheirownabilities,andinthecountrysfuture.Thetimesoftrouble,which
manyifnotmostRussiansoncethoughtwereleftbehindinthe1990s,appeartobeanythingbutsafelybehindthem.
RussianassessmentsofthepresentsituationinandaroundRussiacanbesummarizedinafewshortsentences:
TheRussianeconomyhasoutliveditsmodelofdevelopmentandcanatbeststagnateandstayfirmlylodgedin
themiddle-incometrapthepoliticalsystemisnotabletoaddressthetensionsthatarebuildingwithinsociety.
Russiahasnoreliablepartnersandisfacingavastlysuperioradversarywhoseeconomyismuchbiggerand
betterperformingthanRussiasandwhosemilitaryandtechnologicalcapabilitiesaretheenvyandthetargetof
Russiasownmilitaryreformanddefensemodernizationplans.
NotwithstandingtheimpressiverevivalofRussianmilitarycapabilitiesandthebattlefieldvictoriesinUkraine,Russian
assessmentsoftheRussianmilitaryhavebeenpermeatedbyadeepsenseofinferiorityvis--visNATO.An
authoritativeassessmentofferedbyaleadingRussianmilitaryanalystintheaftermathoftheactivephaseoftheconflict
ineasternUkrainedescribedthemilitaryconfrontationbetweenRussiaandUkraineasabattlebetweentwoobsolete
militaries,oneofwhich(Russias)wasbettertrained,equipped,andled.68
Ahypotheticalsimilarconflict,theanalysiscontinued,withparticipationbyvolunteersfromNATOcountrieswould
followaverydifferentscenario.TheRussianmilitarywouldfaceafarsuperiorenemy,onethatisbetterequipped,
bettertrained,betterled,andbettersustained.FromthesizeofNATOsgroundforcetosmartweaponsinitsarsenal
toitselectronicwarfarecapabilities,theRussianmilitarywouldbeoutnumbered,outgunned,outdone.Russiasonly
recourseinsuchcircumstances,theanalysisconcludes,istothreatentheadversarywithtacticalnuclearweapons.The
country,thearmy,andthenavyarenotyetreadyforalarge-scaleconventional-onlywar.69
ThissenseofvulnerabilitypermeatesRussianmilitarythinkingaboutfutureconflictsandthreatassessmentsasthey
pertaintoeverysphereofmilitaryactivityconventional,nuclear,cyberwar,andinformationwarfare.Noneofthisis
newandreflectslong-standingRussianandearlierSovietconcernsaboutthecountrysinferiormilitarycapabilities
whenstackedagainstNATOs.
conflictinEurope.70WidelyinterpretedinpubliccommentaryintheWestasevidenceofRussianaggressivenessand
militaristicambitions,thesestatementshavebeenechoedindomesticRussiandiscussionsabouttheroleofnuclear
weaponsinafuturewar.71
ThatwarwouldbefoughtagainsttheWest.Russia,writesSergeyBrezkun,professoroftheAcademyofMilitary
Sciences,needstodevelopitsownde-escalationladderinordertolimitafutureregionalconflictatanearlystage
andpreventitfromblowingupintoalarge-scalewar.72Russianleaders,helaments,havenotadequatelyaddressedthe
problemofregionaldeterrence,whichisbecomingallthemoreurgentbecauseofwhathecharacterizedasthe
weakeningofthepolitical-militarypositionsoftheRussianFederation,proliferationontheperipheryofRussiaof
hostileregimesmanipulatedbytheWest,andthedeclineofRussiasconventionalcapabilities.Inthesecircumstances,
theideaofmassivenuclearretaliationinresponsetoaregionalcrisisisirrationalandimpractical.Russianeedsoptions
forde-escalatingthecrisisinitsbeginningphasewiththehelpoflimitednuclearstrikesagainstkeyassetsoftheenemy,
butwithoutcatastrophicconsequences,aswellasnuclearweaponsspecificallydesignedforthispurpose.Such
limitednuclearstrikes,Brezkunargues,willhaveasoberingeffectontheenemy,whichwillthenceaseanddesist.
unimaginable,acombinationofNATOsconventional,nuclear,
andmissiledefensecapabilitiescouldprovedevastatingto
Russiasnucleararsenalanddenyittheabilitytodelivera
retaliatorystrike.
Russianmilitarystrategistslackofconfidenceintheirconventionalcapabilitiesisalong-standingphenomenonthat
predateseventhebreakupoftheSovietUnionandtheimplosionoftheRussianeconomyanditsdefense-industrial
sector.OneoftheearliestvoicestosoundalarmabouttheWestsemergingsuperiorconventionalcapabilitiesinthe
1970sand1980swasMarshalNikolayOgarkov,thechiefoftheGeneralStaff.73Thislackofconfidencemayappear
surprisingintheaftermathofRussianmilitaryreform,inthemidstofaten-yeardefensemodernizationprogram,
increaseddefensespending,andtheRussianarmysstringofsuccessfuloperations.Still,U.S.andotherNATO
countriesconventionalcapabilitiescontinuetoimpressRussianmilitaryobserversandfeedtheirinsecuritywithrespect
totheirown.
Butthisdeep-seatedfeelingofinsecuritycomparedwithNATOapparentlygoesbeyondtheconventionalsphereand
appliestoRussiasstrategicandtacticalnuclearcapabilitiesaswell.Intheworstpossiblecase,whichtoRussian
plannersisnotunimaginable,acombinationofNATOsconventional,nuclear,andmissiledefensecapabilitiescould
provedevastatingtoRussiasnucleararsenalanddenyittheabilitytodeliveraretaliatorystrike.Facedwiththishighly
improbableprospect,Russianmilitaryplannershavetoconsiderfirst-useoptionsasade-escalatorymeasurethatwill
persuadetheenemyofthefutilityofitsactions.Otherwise,ifnuclearweaponsarenotusedearlyinaconflictforthe
purposeofendingit,Russiamaynotbeabletousethematallandbedefeated.
ThesamelackofconfidenceinRussianretaliatorycapabilitiesisapparentinRussiandiscussionsabouttheneedfora
doomsdaymachinelikeschemetoensureamassiveretaliatorystrikeintheeventofadevastatingattackonRussia
discussionsreminiscentofStanleyKubricksDr.Strangelovecharacter.74Inanapparentlydeliberateleak,Russian
mediarevealedtheexistenceofahigh-yieldunmannednucleartorpedothatcouldbelaunchedasaretaliatoryweapon
againstamajorU.S.coastalurbancenterandwouldresultinmassivehumanlossandeconomicdevastation.75Another
proposalcalledforRussiatousemassivenuclearchargestotriggercatastrophictsunamis,volcaniceruptions,or
earthquakesthatwouldcausedevastationoflargeareasoftheUnitedStatesalongtheWestcoast.76
RussianmilitaryplannersconcernsaboutthethreatofU.S.missiledefensestotheirretaliatorycapabilitieslongpredate
thedecisionsbytheadministrationsofObamaandhispredecessorasU.S.president,GeorgeW.Bush,todeploy
missiledefensesintheUnitedStatesandEurope.Someanalystshavegonesofarastosaythatformerpresident
RonaldReagansStrategicDefenseInitiative(commonlycalledStarWars)inthe1980swasresponsiblefor
convincingtheSovietPolitburothattheUnitedStatesenjoyedvastmilitary-technologicalsuperiority.Notonlycouldthe
UnitedStateslaunchasurpriseattackontheSovietUnion,theseanalystsconcluded,butitcouldalsoacquirethe
meansofdenyingtheSovietUnionthecapabilityofdeliveringaretaliatorystrike.77Thearmsrace,inotherwords,
couldnotbewon,andthatinturnledtotheendoftheColdWar.78
RussianconcernsaboutU.S.missiledefensecapabilitiesthusappeartohavedeeproots.Theyhavebeenrestatedwith
surprisingcandorbyRussianofficials.RussianMinistryofForeignAffairsSpecialEnvoyGrigoryBerdennikov,replying
toaquestioninFebruary2015aboutfuturearmscontrol,said,
Onehastounderstandthatnuclearweaponsarenotsomethingthatstandsalone,theyarepartofthestrategic
balance.Tomoveaheadwithnuclearweaponsreductions,itisnecessarytotakeintoaccountotherfactors
firstofall,thefactoroftheglobalmissiledefensesystem,whichtheAmericans,despiteall[our]arguments,
stubbornlydonotwanttodiscusswithus....
Theentiresystemofmutualrelationsinthenuclearsphereisbasedondeterrence.Inotherwords,youhaveto
havethecapability,havingsurvivedthefirststrike,toretaliate,andinsuchawaythattheretaliatorystrikeis
soterriblethatnobodywoulddaretolaunchthefirstone.Ifaneffectivemissiledefensesystemappears,then
someonemayhavetheillusionthatmostoftheweaponsoftheenemycanbedestroyedinthefirststrikeand
therestcanbemoreorlessintercepted.Thesmalleryourarsenal,theeasieritistointerceptwhatsleftafter
thefirststrike.Andwearebeingtold[bytheAmericans],Wellcontinuetodevelopthesedefensivesystems,
butletusreducefurthertheoffensivesystems.Forwhat?Tohaveafirmguaranteethatthesecondstrikewill
beintercepted,tohavethefreedomtolaunchthefirststrike?Isthatwhywearedoingallthis?79
Russianconcernsandcandorarenotlimitedtothenuclearsphere.Continuinghispointaboutthefallacyoftreating
nuclearweaponsasastand-alonecapability,Berdennikovsaid,
Wearepreparedforadialogueaboutfurthernucleardisarmamentsteps.Atthesametime,weareconvinced
thattheyareimpossiblewithoutsolvingsuchproblemsastheunlimitedgrowthofglobalU.S.missiledefenses,
theprojectofusingstrategicweaponswithconventionalwarheadswithintheconceptofglobalstrike,...
therefusaloftheUnitedStatestopledgenottodeployweaponsinspace,[and]thegrowthofqualitativeand
quantitativeconventionalimbalances.80
weaponscontinuetoperforminthedefenseoftheRussianstate.81Athreattothoseweaponsisathreattothesurvival
ofanindependentandsovereignRussianstate.
NewThreats
TheexpandingrangeofU.S.strategiccapabilitiesnuclear,high-precisionandlong-rangeconventional,andmissile
defensehasbeenamajorpreoccupationofRussianmilitaryanalysts.82Russianconcernaboutthesecapabilitiesis
reflectedincandidstatementsaboutthethreattheypose,aswellasreassurancesthatRussianstrategicsystemsare
robust,reliable,andimpervioustoU.S.offensiveordefensivearsenals.83
Theconversationaboutthechangingnatureofwarfare,therolesofnuclearandnon-nuclearweapons,anddeterrence
hasbeenunderwayamongRussianexpertsandmilitaryofficialsfordecades,beginningwiththewritingsofOgarkov.
ThisconversationreflectsthedeepconvictionamongRussiananalystsandplannersthatRussiahasfallenfarbehindthe
UnitedStatesinthedevelopmentofhigh-precisionconventionalweaponryandnon-nucleardeterrentcapabilities.84It
alsoreflectstheirviewthatgradually,theperformancecharacteristicsofnon-nuclear,high-precisionweaponsare
improvingsomuchthattheycouldbegintotakeonthefunctionsthatuntilnowhavebeenassignedexclusivelyto
nuclearweapons.85Asaresult,thetaskfacingtheRussianmilitaryofdeterringsuperioradversariesequippedwithsuch
systemsisincreasinglychallenging.86
invincibleandcapableofreliablydefendingagainstanddeterring
anyenemy,Russiandefenseexpertsappeartoharbordoubts.
TheranksofRussianmilitaryanalystsincludeanumberofskepticswhodoubtnotsomuchtherelativestateofaffairsin
thedevelopmentofU.S.andRussianarsenalsasthepropositionthatconventionalhigh-precisionsystemswillbeable
totakeovermissionsassignedtonuclearsystems.87TheseskepticsbelievethattheprincipalthreattoRussiasnuclear
deterrentandretaliatorycapabilitiesisposedbyU.S.nuclearsystemsandthatpriorityshouldbegiventoprograms
intendedtocounterthosesystems.However,eventheseskepticsconcludethatalthoughnon-nuclear,precision-guided
weaponscannotsupplantnuclearweapons,theycanaffectthestrategicbalanceinsignificantways.88
Tomeetthischallenge,Russiandefenseexpertscontinuetoemphasizenuclearweapons.Althoughmuchhasbeen
madeoftheseriesofRussianconventionalshipbornecruisemissilestrikesfromtheCaspianSeaagainsttargetsin
Syria,thesemuch-toutedcapabilitiesintheeyesofRussianexpertsareapparentlynotyetsufficienttodeterNATO
threatstoRussiainEurope.89
InSeptember2014,DmitryRogozin,thedeputyprimeministerinchargeofdefenseindustries,pledgedtomodernize
theentireRussianstrategicnuclearforcesby2020,notmerely70percentaspreviouslyplanned.90Accordingto
Shoigu,56percentofRussiannuclearweaponsarenew.91ThechiefoftheGeneralStaff,GeneralValeryGerasimov,
echoedRogozinsvowandreferredtoprioritydevelopmentofstrategicnuclearforcesastheMinistryofDefenses
mostimportanttask.92
However,despitetheseacceleratedprogramsandbravuraassurancesthatthenationsnuclearshieldisinvincibleand
capableofreliablydefendingagainstanddeterringanyenemy,Russiandefenseexpertsappeartoharbordoubtsthat
thesemeasuresaresufficient.93Thus,somehavesuggestedthatevendeployingIskandershort-rangeballisticmissiles,
capableofcarryingnuclearwarheads,toCrimeaandKaliningradmayproveinsufficienttodeterpotentialenemies.94
Instead,toaccomplishthatgoal,RussiamayhavetowithdrawfromtheIntermediate-RangeNuclearForcesTreaty
andreintroducethatclassofweaponsintoitsarsenal.95Russiancommentatorsmaintainthatsuchastepisbeing
contemplatedbecauseofthecombinedthreatofNATOmissiledefenseinEuropeandtheacquisitionofintermediate-
rangemissilesbyPakistan,India,andIran.96
OfficialstatementsofferassurancesthatRussiawillusenuclearweaponsonlyintwocircumstances:inretaliationfora
strikeagainstitoritsalliesusingnuclearweaponsorsomeotherformofweaponsofmassdestructionorifRussiaisa
victimofanaggressionthatusesconventionalweaponsbutthreatenstheverysurvivaloftheRussianstate.97However,
RussiandefensepolicydiscussionsrevealthatseniorRussiandefenseplannersalsocontemplateanothercontingency:
launchingpreventivenuclearstrikes,whetherofalimitednatureintendedtode-escalateaconflictoronalargerscale.98
ThiscouldamounttoyetanothertacitadmissionofRussiandefenseplannerslackofconfidenceintheirsecond-strike
capability.Iftheydontusetheirnuclearweapons,inotherwords,theylosethem.
NuclearweaponscertainlyarethecriticalelementofRussiandefensepolicyandwillremainsoforalongtime.Russian
defenseexpertsandofficialsreadilyadmitthattheirindustrialandtechnologicalinferioritywillpreventthemfrom
matchingU.S.advancedmilitarytechnologiesintheforeseeablefuture.99Thisundoubtedlyfeedstheiralreadydeeply
heldfeelingofinsecurityandinferiorityvis--vistheWest,whichisonlyreinforcedbytheproliferationofnew
technologiesandcapabilitiesfordifferentformsofwarfare.
AsifU.S.nuclear,high-precisionconventional,andmissiledefensetechnologieshavenotbeenenoughtofuelanxieties
ofRussiandefenseplanners,theadventofcyberwarfarehasaddedtotheirsenseofinsecurity.Thisisnottosaythat
Russiahasnotsustaineditsownvastcyberwarfareeffortorinvestedpriortotheadventofcybertechnologyinwhat
Russiandefenseexpertscallradio-electronicwarfareorinformationwarfare.Ithas.However,theinformation
revolutionanduniversalcomputerizationofeverysphereofstateandsocietalactivityhascreatedamultitudeofnew
threats.
Theworldisenteringanewphaseofwarfare,accordingtoRussiandefenseexperts,whoassertthatcyberwarfareis
nolongerawarofthefuture.100Itistakingplacenowanew,fifthdomain,alongwithland,air,sea,andspace,in
whichwarcanandwillbewaged.Cyberwarfaretakesprecedenceoverkineticwarfareandisbeingundertakenby
statescontinuously.Theboundarybetweenwarandpeaceisbeinggraduallyerased.CyberwarfarecanthreatenRussia
inawidevarietyofways,fromparalyzinganddestroyingitsinfrastructuretodisablingitscomputernetworksor
insertingdeliberatelyfalseinformationanddisseminatingittothepopulation.AccordingtoRussianexperts,the
destructivepotentialofcyberweaponsiscomparabletothatofnuclearweapons.101Cyberweaponscancreatepanic,
plungesocietiesintochaos,underminelegitimategovernments,suppressanationswilltoresistaggression,and
paralyzeitsarmedforces.Theycanwinwarsbeforeeventhefirstshotisfired.102Understandingtheconsequencesof
thisformofwarfareisofutmostimportancefortheRussianmilitary,whichhasalreadybegunthiseffort.103
InformationwarfarehaslongbeenamajorareaofinterestandconcernforRussiannationalsecurityofficials.The
RussianSecurityCounciladoptedtheDoctrineofInformationSecurityofRussianFederationasearlyas2000and
sincethenhasdevelopedawholelibraryofsupportingdocumentstoguideRussianpolicyinthissphere.104Sincethen,
Russianconcernsaboutthreatsposedbyoffensiveoperationsofcyberwarandinformationwarhaveincreased
manifold,andtheissuehasbeenactivelydiscussedamongdefenseandsecurityexperts.105The2016NationalSecurity
Strategystatesthatintheinterestofprotectingstateandpublicsecurity,thegovernmentwillundertakethenecessary
stepstoimprovetheprotectionofcitizensandsocietyfromtheeffectsofdestructiveinformationpropagatedby
extremistsandterroristorganizations,foreignintelligenceservices,andpropagandaoutlets.106
ThesensitivityandurgencyofthepotentialthreattoRussiafromthecyberdomainwasunderscoredin2014whenPutin
declaredGoogleaspecialprojectoftheU.S.CentralIntelligenceAgencyandurgedRussianstoavoidusingit.The
RussianleaderscommentsaboutU.S.controloftheInternet,combinedwiththeRussiangovernmentslong-term
pursuittoestablishsovereigncontroloverRussiasportionoftheInternet,reflecttheinsecuritynotonlyoftheelites
butalsoofthegeneralpublicaboutthecountrysvulnerabilitytocyberattacksandinformationattacksfromadversaries,
bothrealandimagined.107ThisinsecuritygoessofarastomotivatetheRussiangovernmenttoseekwaystocontrol
theRussianInternetandevenconsiderwaystoineffectunplugRussiafromtheInternetinanemergency.108Sovereign
controloverRussiasportionoftheInternethasbeenalong-standinggoaloftheRussiangovernmentspositionin
internationalforumsdealingwithInternetgovernanceagoalthathasservedasanelementofRussian-Chinese
partnershipinoppositiontoU.S.andotherWesternnationspursuitofthefreeflowofinformationwithoutborders.109
Inthefuture,theRussiangovernmentspursuitofcapabilitiestoregulateand,ifnecessary,switchofftheInternetis
expectedtointensifyasitconsidersafreeandunimpededInternetasoneofitsbiggestthreats.110
IntheviewofRussiannationalsecurityexperts,thefuturehasarrived.TheeffectonRussiahasbeentoaggravateits
senseofencirclement,compounditsvulnerabilities,andmultiplythreatstoit.
WarbyOtherMeans
ThedeteriorationofthisperceivedthreatenvironmentintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisishasspawnedadiscussion
amongRussiannationalsecurityexpertsaboutvariousformsofnonkinetic,nonstopwarfarewagedbytheWestagainst
Russiaeveninpeacetime.Inadditiontoinformationwarandcyberwarfare,theyhavefocusedonWesterneconomic
sanctionsagainstRussiaasaformofcontinuous,undeclaredwarfare.
TheKremlinsresponsetosanctionscanbesummedupasamovetowardeconomicnationalismandisolationism.
WhenVisaandMasterCardcutoffservicestotwoRussianbanksthatweresanctionedbytheUnitedStates,themove
highlightedfortheRussiangovernmenttheeconomysheavyrelianceonWesternpaymentsystemsanditsresulting
vulnerabilitytofurtherWesternsanctions.Inresponse,theCentralBankofRussiahasannouncedaplantocreatea
nationalpaymentsystemtoinsulateRussiafromWesternpressureintheeventofanewroundofsanctions.111The
morerecentthreattocutoffRussianaccesstoSWIFT(SocietyforWorldwideInterbankFinancial
Telecommunication)hasledtheRussiangovernmenttoconsideroptionsforsettingupanalternativeinpartnershipwith
China.112
Thedefense-industrialsectorhasbeendirectedtodiminishandeventuallyeliminateitsrelianceonforeignsuppliers.113
Thedesiretoenddependenceonforeignsuppliersisnotlimitedtothedefensesector,forinMay2016,Putintasked
thecabinetwithstimulatingdomesticmanufacturinganddevelopingsubstitutesforforeignimportsthroughoutthe
economy.Inafurthermovetoinsulatetheeconomyfromforeigninfluence,Putinorderedthegovernmenttodevelop
andimplementstepsfordeoffshorizationofmajorindustrialenterprisesbydevelopingtax,accounting,andcriminal
legislationaimedatdiscouragingcompaniesfromlocatingfacilitiesoffshore.114
TheideathatsanctionsrepresentaformofwarfareoraninstrumentofcoercionishardlyneworuniquetoRussia.It
hasalonghistory,andrecordeddiplomacyandwarfarearerepletewithexamplesofitdatingallthewaytoancient
Greece.115Nonetheless,Westernsanctionsandtheeconomicslumpthathasfollowedtheirimpositionalthough
causednotonlybythemundoubtedlyhaveunderscoredRussiasvulnerabilitytooutsideforcesandthehostile
environmentaroundit.
ThetakeoverofCrimeabytheRussianmilitaryand,subsequently,theoperationsineasternUkrainehavefocusedthe
attentionofforeignandRussianobserversonso-calledhybridwarfare.Thisterm,whichreferstoawiderangeof
kineticandnonkineticactivitiesbymilitarypersonnelandcivilians,hasbeenthesubjectofextensivediscussionsin
RussiaasbothathreattoRussiansecurityandRussiasresponsetothreatstoitposedbyhostilepowers.
Ukraine,whichentailsamixofspecialforces,civilians,informationoperations,cyberattacks,and,onsomeoccasions,
uniformedmilitarypersonnel.116Presumably,acombinationofthesecapabilitiesinacrisisenvironmentcanbeusedto
achievesurpriseandconfusetheadversaryandtoaccomplishpoliticalandmilitaryobjectiveswithoutresortingto
large-scalekineticwarfareandanoutrightwardeclaration,whichinturncanpresentanadversarywithafaitaccompli
andavoidunnecessarycasualtiesandescalationofhostilitiesforRussia.CountriesthatshareborderswithRussia,
especiallytheBalticstates,someofwhichhavelargeRussianpopulations,areespeciallyvulnerabletothistypeof
warfare,Westernofficialshavewarned.117
aggression,thusrunningtheriskofconfusionandcontroversyamongtheallieswithrespecttomilitaryactionindefense
oftheBalticstatesinaccordancewiththealliancesArticle5guarantees.
RussiandefenseexpertsalsochargethattheWestisconductinghybridwarfareagainstRussiathroughacombinationof
militaryandothermeans,includingsanctionsandinformationwarfare.118Theirinterpretationofhybridwarfare
underscoresthedestabilizingfunctionoftheWestsdemocracypromotionactivitiesspecificallythecolorrevolutions
inthecountriessurroundingRussia.InRussiasview,thoseactivities,throughmeasureswellshortofwar,createazone
ofinstabilityaroundRussia,encircleitwithWesternagentsofinfluence,andcreateopportunitiesforWestern
intervention.119Moreover,instabilitythreatensnotonlyRussiasneighborsbutalsoRussiaitself,becausesupportfor
groupsinsideRussiaopposedtotheRussiangovernmentcanalsobeinterpretedasanelementofhybridwarfare.120
Large-scalewarfarehasbecomedangerous,evensuicidal,forthepartiesinvolved,duetothedestructionassociated
withitwithorwithoutnuclearweapons.Andthatinturnnecessitatesresortingtootherformsofwarfarethatcarry
smallerrisksofcatastrophicconsequences.
SomeRussiandefenseanalystshavearguedthatdespitethepublicitysurroundingthetermhybridwarfaresincethe
startoftheconflictinUkraine,theconceptisneithernewnorparticularlytransformative.121Forexample,theynote,
informationoperationshavelongbeenacriticalelementofstatesactivitiesintendedtomisleadanadversaryand
demoralizeitspopulationandcombatants.Deploymentofmilitarypersonnelwithoutnationalinsigniaisalong-standing
practiceinwarfare,asistheuseofproxiesandregularforcesundertheguiseofvolunteers.Theargumentaboutthe
noveltyofhybridwarfarethusdoesnotstanduptoscrutinyandiscontradictedbyalongandrichhistoricalrecordof
variousconflicts.122
TheRussiangovernmentsapproachtodealingwithUkraine-relatedsanctionsimposedbytheUnitedStatesandthe
EuropeanUnionisindicativeofwhatRussianbehaviorcanbeexpectedtobelikeinfuturecrises.Byfocusingonsome
oftheweakerandpoorerEUandNATOmembersGreeceorBulgaria,forinstanceRussianofficialshave
apparentlysoughttounderminebothorganizationsconsensusonsanctionsagainstRussia.123Similarly,thereported
financialtiesbetweenFrancesfar-rightNationalFrontandaMoscow-basedbankarelikelyintendedtosecurea
RussianfootholdinFrenchdomesticpoliticsandtoseektoinfluenceFrenchpolicy.124Politicalpartiesandindividual
politiciansandofficialsintheCzechRepublic,Germany,andLatviahaveallbeentargetedbytheRussian
government.125
reconnaissance,andvariousothermilitary,paramilitary,andcivilianpersonnelareallfairgame.Corruption,blackmail,
relianceoncriminalnetworks,andoverteconomicassistanceareallfairgameasmeansofpreparingthebattlefieldor
achievingpoliticalobjectivesbeforethefirstshotisfired.
ABleakOutlook
TheprofoundsenseofinsecuritythatpermeatesRussiandiscussionsaboutthecountryspositioninEuropeandEurasia
iswelljustified.TherearemanyuncertaintiesinRussiasfuture,aswellasinthoseofitsneighbors,potentialpartners,
allies,andadversaries.However,thoseuncertaintiesdisappearwhenitcomestothisprediction:theabilitiesofRussian
leaders,militaryplanners,anddiplomatswillbethoroughlytestedintheyearsanddecadestocomeasafunctionofthe
difficultgeopoliticalenvironmentandmultiplechallengesthecountryisfacingathome.
PredictingthetrajectoryofRussiaisaninherentlydifficulttask.FewpredictedthebreakupoftheSovietUnionbefore
itunraveledrapidly.Fewpredictedthatthecountrywoulddissolverelativelypeacefully.Fewpredictedtheeconomic
calamitythatfollowed,therecoveryofRussiaadecadelater,theeconomicboomthatfollowed,theprotestsof2012,
thewarwithUkraine,andthevirulentlyanti-WesternturninRussiandomesticandforeignpolicies.Allofthesemajor
shiftsoccurredintheshorthistoricallyspeakingspanoftwenty-fiveyears.
Russiaintoaseriesofsmallerstates,someofthemwithnuclearweaponsontheirterritoriesanotherwarintheSouth
CaucasusanewrapprochementwiththeWestnecessitatedbytheneedformodernization,economicaid,andhelp
consolidatingnuclearweaponsinwhatsleftofRussiaproper.Andallofthesecouldbefollowedbytheriseofa
nationalistRussianregimebentongatheringthelostempireandreconstitutingthegreatRussianstate,triggeringyet
anotherconflictwithbothimmediateneighborsandtheWest.
Insum,noforecastofRussiasfuturecanbereducedtoastraightline.Russiahastoexploremultiplepossibilities.Ithas
toconsiderpossibilitiesthatareliterallystrangerthanfiction.Andthenithastocautionthereadertotakeallwithabig
grainofsalt.
ConsideringthemanychangesinRussiainthepastquartercentury,itiseasytooverlookthefactthateventhoughthe
countryunderwentamajorpoliticalshockwhentheSovietUnionbrokeup,itspoliticalsystemisquitewellestablished.
DespitesignificantdifferencesbetweentheYeltsinera,thePutinpresidency,andtheMedvedevinterregnum,the
politicalsystemchangedlittle.DescribedearlyinitsdevelopmentbylongtimeRussiaexpertThomasGraham,ithas
remainedessentiallyanoligarchywithallthetrappingsofamoderndemocracy,butwithoutinternalideological
differencesandmotivatedonlybycompetitionforpropertyamongoligarchicgroupsorclans.126Atthecenterofthis
arrangementstandsapowerfulpresidentwhosemissionistomanagecompetitionamongclansandthusmaintain
domesticstability.
EstablishedearlyduringtheYeltsinpresidency,thissystemhassurvivedlargelyintact.Someclansandoligarchshave
departed,andothershavereplacedthem.Thepowerofthepresidencyhasincreasedordecreaseddependingonthe
personalityoftheincumbent.Butthroughitall,thesysteminitsessencehasremainedintact.Keyfeaturesofthissystem
apowerfulexecutive,thecloserelationshipbetweenpowerandproperty,theirconcentrationinthehandsofa
relativelysmallelite,thelackofarepresentativegovernment,andtheprevalenceoftherulingideologypredatethe
currentRussianregimeandhavetheirrootsintheSovietandimperialRussianperiods.Littleonthecountryspolitical
landscapesuggeststhatthesystemislikelytoundergosignificantchangesintheforeseeablefuture.Itmayundergo
somechangesonthemargins,butthereisnothinginRussiandomesticpoliticstoindicatethatamorerepresentative
formofgovernmentislikelytoemergeinthenexttentofifteenyears.Yet,changemayberequiredforthecountryto
overcomethemanyobstaclesfacingit.
StagnationLooms
In2016,wellintoPutinsthirdpresidentialterm,Russiafindsitselfconfrontedbyincreasinglybleakprospects.As
notedbymanyRussianobserversquotedinthispaper,theproblemisnotjustthatthepriceofoilisloworthatthe
sanctionsimposedbytheEUandtheUnitedStateshavehurttheRussianeconomy.Theentiremodelofeconomic
developmentpursuedbyRussiainthepastdecadeandahalf,theobserversconclude,hasoutliveditself.
SomeRussiananalystshavenotedthesimilaritybetweenPutinsRussia,nowintheseventeenthyearoftheRussian
presidentstenureatthehelm,andtheSovietUnionduringtheeraofLeonidBrezhnev,wholedthecountryfor
eighteenyearsfrom1964to1982.127Then,too,theSovietUnionhadreachedadeadendandhadtoradicallychange
courseindomesticandforeignaffairs.
Russiasnextpresidentialelectionisscheduledin2018.Putin,whowillthenbesixty-fiveyearsold,willendhisthird
presidentialtermandwilleitherrunforyetanothersix-yeartermorstepasideeitherasatacticalmeasureorasamove
towardretirement.ThelikelihoodofPutinsteppingasideretiring,ratherthanasatacticalmoveappearslowatthe
timeofthiswriting.128
Moreover,Putinsdeparturefromthepoliticalstageshouldnotbeequatedwithimprovedprospectsforpoliticalor
economicmodernizationinRussia.Theupperechelonofthecountryspoliticaleliteiscomposedofpeoplewhose
outlooksandbackgroundsaresimilartoPutins.Theirprospectsforimplementingmajorchangesinthecountrys
politicalsystemoreconomyappearequallymodestatbest
IfPutinLeaves
electioninwhichanewleaderwouldbechosen.Thatishowtheprocessissupposedtoworkformally,andthereis
littlechancethatitwillnot.
Inreality,PutinsdeparturewouldholdthepossibilityofasignificantdestabilizationofRussianpolitics.Heoccupiesa
uniquelypowerfulplaceinthecountryspoliticalsystem,actingasthecentralfigureamongvariousinterestsgroupsand
clans,balancingtheircompetingdemandsandadjudicatingtheirdisputes.129NootherpoliticiancomesclosetoPutins
standinginthatsystem.Hehasnopoliticalheirorsecond-in-command.TheprimeministercurrentlyDmitry
Medvedevstepsintemporarilyifthepresidentisincapacitatedordiesinoffice,untilanewpresidentiselectedwithin
ninetydays.Few,ifany,politicalanalystswouldarguethatMedvedevisacrediblecandidateforthepresidencyto
succeedPutinorapowerfulfigureinRussiandomesticpolitics.
Intheabsenceofadesignatedpoliticalsuccessor,theprocessofnominatingacandidatefromthepoliticaleliteso-
calledthepartyofpowerwouldbehighlycontested,almostcertainlymoresothantheelectionitself.Suchintra-elite
strugglestookplaceduringthe20072008period,whenPutinssecondtermwasduetoexpirebuthehadnotyet
designatedhissuccessorormadeclearhisownplans.Similarly,in2011,Russianeliteswereunsettledbythelackof
clarityaboutthefutureoftheMedvedev-Putintandem.
ShouldPutindepartthepoliticalscenewithoutdesignatingasuccessor,therulingelitewouldhaveapowerfulincentive
inpreservingtheexistingsystemandavoidinganinternalsplit,thusincreasingthelikelihoodofcoalescingarounda
singlecandidate.Buttheprocessofselectingthatsinglecandidateislikelytobecontentious,resultinginafierce
competitionamongclansandinterestgroups.
decimatedasaresultofaseriesofsystematicmeasuresbythePutinadministrationtolimittheabilityofopposition
partiesandcivilsocietyatlargetoorganize,recruitmembers,raisefunds,orinanyotherwayparticipateinthepolitical
lifeofthecountry.Noseriouscontenderforthepresidencyabletocompetewiththeonenominatedbythepartyof
powerislikelytoemergefromtheranksoftheopposition.
However,theelectionwouldnotmarktheendofpoliticalinstabilityinRussia.Thenewleaderwouldhavetowork
hardtoconsolidatehis(mostlikelynother)powerandrestoretheequilibriumamongclansdisruptedbyPutins
departure.Thiswouldalmostcertainlybeaprocessthatwouldtakeyears,giventhesizeofthecountry,themultitudeof
itsclansandinterestgroups,regionalinterests,andthesorrystateoftheeconomythatwouldalmostcertainlyleadto
fiercecompetitionamongclansforalargershareoftheshrinkingpie.
Howlikelyisthecountrysnewpresidenttointroducemajorreformsindomesticorforeignaffairsinthatenvironment?
SuchreformsnotunliketheGorbachev-eradtentewiththeWestinforeignpolicyandmovementtoward
deregulationandmarketcapitalismwouldundoubtedlyprovecontroversialandpoliticallydifficult,fortheywould
affectinterestsofvariousclansvestedinthestatusquo.Anynewleaderwouldhavetotakethatintoaccount.Anew
leaderwouldalsohavetotakeintoaccountthefragilityoftheRussianeconomyandprobablybemindfulthat
Gorbachevsreformsendedincatastrophethebreakupofthecountry.Withthisbaggage,anynewleaderwould
likelyproceedwithextremecaution,ifatall.ThelikelyoutcomeofthisscenariowouldbeacontinuationofPutinism,
butwithoutPutin,fortheremainderofthisdecade,ifnotlonger.Changewouldhavetowaituntillater,perhapsuntilthe
successorssecondpresidentialterm.
Oncechangecomes,itcouldprovedestabilizing.AfutureRussianleaderlaunchingmajorreformsinthemiddleofthe
thirddecadeofthetwenty-firstcenturywouldhavetocontendwithamultitudeofchallenges,including
astagnanteconomy
highbarrierstodomesticandforeigninvestmentexcessivegovernmentregulation,weakruleoflaw,corruption,
andpoorinfrastructureand
gravitationalpolesChina,Turkey,Europewillcreatepowerfulcentrifugalforcesandgreatlycomplicatethetaskof
thefederalgovernmentofmanagingtheeconomyandpoliticalsystem.Russia,whichisorganizedasafederation,could
facesomeofthesameseparatisttendenciesthattheSovietUnionencounteredamongitsconstituentrepublicsinitsfinal
years.Alternatively,thiscouldresultinasignificantdelegationofpowerandauthoritytotheregions.Thepossibilityof
furtherfragmentationoftheRussianstatehastobeconsideredasoneofrealcontingenciestofaceRussiaattheendof
the2020s.
Putinsdeparturefromthepoliticalsceneattheendofthecurrenttermdoesnotguaranteethathissuccessorwould
undertakesignificantreformsindomesticorforeignpolicy.However,shouldsuchreformsbeattempted,theycould
resultinasignificantdestabilizationofRussia.
IfPutinStays
TheprospectofPutinsreelectiontoafourthpresidentialtermin2018raisesthecriticalquestionofwhetherheis
capableofchange.Putinsreturntothepresidencyin2012provedasetbackforRussiasreformersandadvocatesof
modernizationafteraperiodwhenprospectsforeconomicandpoliticalmodernizationlookedrelativelybright.Since
2012,theyhavedimmedconsiderably,andintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisistheyappeartobenearlyextinguished.
Theneedforchangeinthecountryseconomicandpoliticallifecloselyrelatedtoeachotheriswidelyunderstood
andacknowledgedinRussiansociety.Itisequallywidelyunderstoodthatsignificantchangecouldprovedestabilizing
fortheestablishedpoliticalsystem.Asmentioned,theexperienceoftheGorbachev-erareformscontinuestoserveasa
potentcautionaryreminderofthedangersassociatedwithradicalchange.
Putinhasfirmlyandrepeatedlyrejectedtheideaofpoliticalmodernizationasathreattothecountrysstability.His
entirethirdtermcanbedescribedasantimodernization,includingsuppressionofcivilsociety,isolationofRussiafrom
EuropeandtheUnitedStates,propagandaofso-calledtraditionalRussianvaluesasdifferentfromEuropeanvalues
andnorms,prouddeclarationsthatRussiaisnotEurope,andapushtoautarkyineconomicdevelopmenttoinoculate
thecountryfromthethreatofWesternsanctions.MovesbytheKremlintoassertthesupremacyofRussianlawsover
internationaltreatiessignedbyRussiaanddisconnectthecountryfromtheInternetaresymbolicofthe
antimodernizationspiritthathaspermeatedRussianpoliticsandpolicymakingsincePutinsreturntothepresidency.
Putinhasraisedtheissueofeconomicmodernizationinhisspeechesrepeatedly.However,hisrecordinofficesincehis
accessiontothepresidencyin2000ofconsistent,step-by-step,deliberateconsolidationofpoliticalpowerand
economicleversinthehandsofthestateorasmallgroupofassociatescloselytiedtothestatespeaksmuchlouder
thanhiswords.Ifheweretobecomeamodernizerlateinhispoliticalcareer,itwouldbearadicaldeparturefrom
everythinghehasdoneuntilnow.
Increasingly,economicmodernizationinRussiarequirespoliticalmodernizationaswell,andashiftfromthesmall,
Kremlin-centeredoligarchytoamoreopeneconomicsystemwithstrongerruleoflaw,transparency,andadegreeof
competitiveness.Thatwillrequirereformsthatwouldchallengetheverypoliticalorderthatforthepastdecadeanda
halfhasservedasthefoundationofRussiandomesticstabilityandPutinspersonalpowerandhasitsrootsinthe
systemthatemergedsoonafterthebreakupoftheSovietUnion.Theoutlookforachangeofsuchmagnitudeisnot
encouragingfortheforeseeablefuture.
Underthepresentconstitutionalarrangement,andassumingPutinisreelectedin2018,hewillremaininofficeuntil
2024.Hewillbeseventy-onethenstillrelativelyyoungandquiteplausiblynotreadytodepartthepoliticalstage.The
prospectofPutinremainingatthehelmasfaras2030isquitereal,justastheprospectofhischangingcourseisquite
remote.
ThisisnottosaythatRussiawillcontinueindefinitelyalongitspresentglidepath.Theabsenceofreformsandlackof
progresstowardmodernizingthecountryspoliticalsystemandeconomyareboundtotaketheirtollonitseconomy,its
politics,anditsinternationalstanding.Thisisalmostcertaintotriggerdiscontinuitiespolitical,security,andeconomic.
Thatsaid,anyattemptbyPutinorhissuccessortotacklethischallengeisfraughtwithsignificantrisksofdiscontinuity.
Inshort,Russiaisfacingadifficultdecadeoradecadeandahalf,regardlessofPutinscourse.
Theweaknessofandsevererestrictionsonoppositionpoliticalpartiesandcivicorganizationsvirtuallyprecludethe
possibilityofapowerfulstructuredchallengetothePutinregime.However,therestrictionsonorganizedpolitical
activitiescandolittletolimitspontaneousmanifestationsofdiscontentandgrassrootsactionsinresponsetoadeclining
standardofliving,actionsoflocalauthorities,orintercommunal,interracial,orinterconfessionaltensions.130The
growthofsuchprotestactivitiescould,overtime,developintoapersistentpattern,creatingopportunitiesforpolitical
challengestotheregime.Theregimesinabilityorunwillingnesstotackletheunderlyingeconomicpoliticaland
economicproblemscouldexacerbatethechallengeandthethreattothecountrysdomesticstability.
Inadditiontothechallengetothecountryspoliticalstability,thelonglistofproblemsfacingtheRussiangovernmentin
theconditionsofastagnanteconomyandshrinkingresourcesincludesthethreatofyetanotherdestabilizationinthe
NorthCaucasus,whererelativepeaceandstabilityhavebeenmaintainedthroughmassivefederaltransfersandcutsin
defensespending,socialprograms,science,education,andotherprograms.131Combinedwithlackofinvestmenteven
inthecriticalenergysector,thesecutsthreatencascadinglong-termeffectsontheeconomy,furtherunderminingits
abilitytoinnovate,diversify,andgrow,allofwhichpointtothesystemiccrisis.132
ChallengesAbroad
TomakemattersworseforRussianpolicymakers,theexternalenvironmenttheyarelikelytofacealongtheimmediate
peripheryofRussiaandbeyondpromisestobeequallychallenging.TheUkrainecrisishascompoundedthechallenges
RussiannationalsecurityexpertshavelongfearedintheEuro-Atlantictheater.Atthesametime,thebreakinrelations
withEuropeandtheUnitedStateshasnotresultedinnewpartnershipsoralliancesforRussiaelsewhere.Thishas
occurredatatimeofmajornewinstabilityintheinternationalarenaingeneralandinregionsnearRussiainparticular.
InEurope,RussianthreatperceptionsandconcernsaboutNATOslowlymovingitsmilitarycapabilitiestowardits
bordersarebecomingaself-fulfillingprophecyintheaftermathoftheUkrainecrisis.If,priortotheannexationof
CrimeaandthewarineasternUkraine,Russiawasconsideredbytheallianceasapossible,albeitincreasinglyunlikely,
partner,thenRussianactionsinUkrainehaveputanendtosuchhopesforpartnershipandtransformedtherelationship
intoonethatisopenlyadversarial.133Thealliancescommitmentnottopermanentlystationsubstantialcombatforces
ontheterritoriesofnewmembersinthecurrentandforeseeablesecurityenvironmentdisappearedwiththeannexation
ofCrimea,theaggressionineasternUkraine,andRussianthreatsagainsttheBalticstatesandotherNATOmembers.
possibilities.InresponsetowhatseniorNATOofficialsdescribeasthemostdangerousthreattoEurope,NATOis
undertakingaseriesofstepsthatincludethestationingofU.S.andotherNATOtroopsandpre-positioningof
equipment,includingheavyU.S.equipment,inthefrontlinestatesfromtheBaltictotheBlackSeaplanningforand
trainingtodefendagainstRussianaggressionandestablishmentofrapidresponseandbroaderresponseforces.134
AndnowSweden,neutralfornearlytwocenturies,andFinland,neutralsince1948,arehavingactivedebatesabout
joiningthealliance.135
Further,theUkrainecrisishaspromptedcallsfromWesternmilitaryanalyststocounterRussianthreatstoEuropewith
theverysystemsthatRussianassessmentshavelonghighlightedasdestabilizingandmostthreateningintheeventofa
crisis.136Acombinationoflong-range,stealth,andprecisiontechnologies,ifdeployedbyNATOalliesinacrisis,would
bethefulfillmentofRussiandefenseplannersworstexpectations.
However,asidefromthepurelymilitarythreats,moreuncertaintyandpossiblyturmoilarelikelytoconfrontRussiainits
Westernstrategicdirection.ThebiggestchallengefacingRussiaalongitswesternfrontieristheunsettledconflictwith
Ukraine.RussianactionsinvolvingUkrainehaveservedasasourceoflong-term,deepenmitybetweentwocountries
thatpreviouslyhadexperiencednone.Furthermore,theyhavecreatedalong-termsourceofinstabilityinlieuofthe
predictable,ifstagnant,relationshipthathadexistedbetweenRussiaandUkraineforthequartercenturyfromthe
breakupoftheSovietUniontotheannexationofCrimea.
Ukrainesoutlookfortheforeseeablefuturecanbestbedescribedalongtwouneasytrajectoriesmuddlingthroughor
returningtoRussiasorbit.Thisbleakprospectisaproductofseveralcircumstances:thelegacyofSovietrule
combinedwiththemisruleofthefirstquartercenturyofindependencethatleftUkraineacorruptoligarchythe
depletedeconomybadlydamagedbytheconflictineasternUkraineandreformsthatwereneverimplementedandthe
lackofinterestintheWesttosupportUkrainewiththesamecommitmentEuropeandtheUnitedStatesmadeto
integratetheformerWarsawPactcountriesandBalticstatesintotheWesternpolitical,economic,andsecurity
structures.Inaddition,theconflictineasternUkraineislikelytobesettledonlyasfrozenratherthanresolved,thus
leavingapermanentwoundinUkrainesdomesticpolitics,economy,andsecurity.
Themuddling-throughscenariohasUkrainestayingonitspresentcourseofdifficult,haltingpoliticalandeconomic
reformsforthedurationofPresidentPetroPoroshenkostermuntil2019.ThisscenariohasUkrainemaking
intermittentprogressinthefollowingareas:someimprovementinitsinvestmentclimategradualstructuralreformsofthe
economy,especiallytheenergysectorandheavyindustrydecentralizationandsomecurbingofthepowerofoligarchs.
Allofthesechangespromisetobedifficultandpoliticallychallenging,threateningtounderminethegovernments
precariousstandinginthepollsandpossiblyleadingtoearlyparliamentaryelections,furthercomplicatingthe
governmentstask.Thisscenarioalsoentailsimplementingadifficultsecurity-sectorreform,reequippingthearmed
forces,andadaptingtoahostofEU-mandatedrequirementsthatmakeupUkrainesAssociationAgreementandfree-
tradeagreementwiththeEU.Thisisahighlyambitiousagendathatatbestcanbeonlypartlyfulfilled,evenbythemost
ambitiousreformersandwiththehelpofgenerousaid,whichisunlikelytomaterialize.Allthewhile,Ukrainewouldbe
underseverepressurefromRussia.
Together,thesewouldhaveaparalyzingeffectontheabilityofthegovernmenttofunction.TheInternationalMonetary
Fund(IMF)agreementwouldthenbejeopardized,leadingtoahaltinIMFassistancetoUkraine.Otherdonor
assistanceconditionedoncompliancewithIMFrequirementswouldalsobeimperiled.Thisturnofeventswould
precipitateanothercrisis,afailureoftherulingcoalitionandearlyparliamentaryandpossiblypresidentialelections
restoringtopoweralessreform-mindedleadershipandreturningUkrainetothedysfunctionaloligarch-dominatedstate
ithadbeeninpriortotheEuromaidanantigovernmentuprisingin20132014.Thisscenarioalsoentailsthenew
governmentsgradualaccommodationwithRussiainexchangeforfinancialsubsidiesintheformoffavorabletermsfor
gastradeorloans.TheaccommodationwithRussiawouldprovecontroversialwithmanyinUkraine,leadingtoa
dividedpolityandpermanentpoliticaltensions,polarization,andgovernmentdysfunction.
Ineitherscenario,fortheforeseeablefuture,Ukraineislikelytoremainafragilestatestrugglingwithdomesticreforms
andcaughtinatug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWest.NeitherRussianorEuropeandtheUnitedStatesislikelyto
countonUkraineasareliablepartner.ForbothRussiaandtheWest,Ukrainepromisestobeasourceofeconomic
andsecuritychallengesaswellasamajorsubjectoflong-termtensionsanddiscordintheirbilateralrelations.
Similarlycaughtinatug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWestisUkrainesnorthernneighborBelarus.Ruledbyawily
authoritarianleader,AleksandrLukashenko,formorethantwodecades,thecountryhassurvivedinlargemeasure
thankstoitsspecialrelationshipwithRussiaandhugesubsidiesfromMoscow,coupledwitharepressiveregimethat
hassucceededineliminatingormarginalizingallopposition.
SincethecrisisinUkraine,LukashenkohassoughttodistancehimselfsomewhatfromMoscowandrebuildbridgesto
theWest.HiseffortshavemetwithreciprocalstepsonthepartoftheEU.137SomeofthisoutreachtotheWestisno
doubtduetothediminishingeconomicprospectsinrelationswithRussiaandtheneedforeconomicassistancetokeep
theregimeafloat.138
Lukashenko,whoissixty-one,couldremaininofficeforanotherdecadeorlonger.Withhisskillatnavigatingbetween
RussiaandtheWestprovedoverthecourseoftwodecadesandhisholdonpowerunchallenged,hecouldcontinueto
maneuverbetweenthetwoopposingsidesforanequallylongtime.
threateningtoitsinterests.TheBelarusianborderisbarely300milesfromMoscow.Apro-Westerngovernmentin
MinskwouldundoubtedlybeseenbytheKremlininequallythreateningtermsasUkrainespursuitofanAssociation
AgreementwiththeEU,ifnotmoreso.BelarusiscloselyintegratedinRussiandefenseplanstocounterNATORussia
hasambitionsforfurtherintegrationandexpansionofitsmilitarypresencethere.139Lukashenkosstatedoppositionto
aRussianairbaseinBelarusislikelytobeseeninMoscowasasignthattheBelarusianleaderisnotareliableallyand
cannotbetrusted.140
AchangeinBelarussstrategicorientation,eitherasaresultofadeliberatedecisionbyLukashenkoorhissuccessor,or
asaconsequenceofadomesticupheaval,couldforcetheKremlinshandtolaunchyetanothermilitaryintervention.
ThistimeitwouldbedirectlyonRussiasborderwiththreeNATOmemberstatesLatvia,Lithuania,andPoland.
RussianminorityinbreakawayTransnistria.Thecountryhasbeenshakenbyrepeatedscandalsandpoliticalprotests
thathaveincapacitateditsgovernment.Moldovaremainsdividedbetweenthosewhoadvocateclosertieswith
Romania,fromwhichitslargepartwassplitoffin1940asaresultoftheMolotov-RibbentropPact,andthosewho
wantclosertieswithRussia.141
Moldovaspoliticshasbeendysfunctionalformostofitshistoryasanindependentstate.Thereislittleinthecountrys
currentpoliticaloreconomiclandscapeandoutlooktosuggestthatthenear-permanentgridlockislikelytochangeand
bereplacedbyabetter-functioninggovernmentthatwouldmovethecountryclosereithertoRomaniaandtheEUorto
Russia.Thepoliticalparalysisandeconomicstagnationarethereforelikelytocontinueindefinitely,astheyhavefor
muchofthepastquartercentury.
AnotherpossiblescenarioforMoldovaoverthenextdecadeoradecadeandahalfentailsagradualmigrationof
MoldovancitizenstoRomania,takingadvantageofRomaniasofferofpassports.Thiswouldeffectivelycontinuethe
trendofworking-ageMoldovansleavingtheirhomelandasguestworkerselsewhereinEuropeorinRussia.According
toWorldBankdata,between2011and2015,personalremittancesamountedtomorethan25percentofMoldovas
GDP.142RussiaseconomicslowdownislikelytoaffectMoldovanguestworkersthere,increasingpressurestomigrate
toEurope.RussiansanctionsagainstMoldovainretributionforitssigninganAssociationAgreementwiththeEUare
likelytofurtherrestrictMoldovanguestworkersaccesstoRussia,thusincreasingpressuresformigrationto
Romania.143ThiswouldineffectstimulateagradualhollowingoutofMoldovaanditsdefactointegrationwith
Romania.Aslongasthisprocessdoesnottriggeractionsleadingtoamoreformalintegrationandanadversereaction
fromRussia,thestatusquoinMoldovawouldremain.
OneofRussiasmajorbreakthroughrelationshipsaftertheColdWarwaswithTurkey.Thetwohistoricalrivalsbuilta
newrelationshipbasedonrecognitionofmutualbenefits.144TurkeyquicklyemergedasamajordestinationforRussian
traders,tourists,andenergycompanies.TurkishcompaniesestablishedthemselvesintheRussianrealestate
developmentindustry,andTurkishagriculturalproducersfoundareadymarketfortheirexportsinRussia.145
DefyingthelegacyoftheColdWarandcenturiesofgeopoliticalrivalrypriortothat,RussiaandTurkeydevelopeda
partnershipthatseemeddestinedtogetstronger.Theirpartnershipwasbuoyedbytwoimportantfactors.First,both
countriesstruggledtofindtheirplaceinEurope,which,despitepromisesofpartnership,keptthematarmslength.The
otherfactorwastheblossomingpersonalrelationshipbetweenthetwocountriespresidents,PutinandRecepTayyip
Erdoan.Bothproudoftheirreputationsasstrongleaderstransformingtheircountries,bothincreasinglyaccusedof
authoritarianbehaviorathomeandcriticizedforitabroad,thetwopresidentsweredescribedinaWashingtonPost
articlesheadlineasmadeforeachother.146ThecivilwarinSyria,inwhichRussiahassupportedthegovernmentof
SyrianPresidentBasharal-AssadandTurkeyhassoughttooverthrowit,hasintroducedfrictionsintherelationship
betweenAnkaraandMoscowbutdidnotchangewhatPutindescribedasitsfriendlyandcooperativenature.147
TheRussian-Turkishrelationship,whichhadbeenfullofpromise
anddeliveredmuchtobothcountries,almostinstantlyrevertedto
itsoldadversarialrootswithnoprospectofimprovementinthe
foreseeablefuture.
ThemajorshiftinrelationsbetweenTurkeyandRussia,rekindlingtalkabouttheircenturies-oldgeopoliticalrivalry,
occurredinlateNovember2015,whenaTurkishF-16fightershotdownaRussianSu-24groundattackaircraft.148
TheTurkishgovernmentsaidatthetimethattheRussianaircrafthadviolatedTurkishairspaceaclaimdisputedbythe
Russiangovernment.PutindescribedTurkishactionsasastabinthebackandreferredtotheTurkishgovernmentas
accomplicesofterrorism.149PutinreportedlyrefusedtheTurkishpresidentsoutreachattempts,andtheRussian
governmentproceededtoimposeeconomicsanctionsonTurkey.150Arelationshipthathadbeenfullofpromisefor
bothcountriesanddeliveredsomuchtobothalmostinstantlyrevertedtoitsoldadversarialrootswithnoprospectof
improvementintheforeseeablefuture.151
HavingregainedCrimea,andwithitsecureditsholdontheBlackSeaFleetbaseinSevastopol,Russiahassealedthe
transformationoftheBlackSeaintoalong-termhostileenvironment.NoneoftheBlackSealittoralstatescanbe
countedonasapartnerbyRussianmilitaryplanners.AllexceptforUkraineandGeorgiaareNATOmembers.Kyiv
andTbilisiviewRussiaasanaggressorandthebiggestthreattotheirsurvivalasindependentandsovereignstates,and
bothhavemademembershipinthealliancethekeygoaloftheirnationalsecuritypolicies.ThesituationintheBlackSea
regionisfurtheraggravatedfromMoscowsstandpointbythebreakdowninRussian-Turkishrelationsfollowing
RussiasmilitarydeploymenttoSyriaandtheshootingdownoftheRussianaircraftbyTurkey.
ThesituationintheSouthCaucasusishardlymorereassuringforRussiandefenseplanners,albeitfordifferentreasons,
largelyunconnectedtoNATO.Theregion,hometothreefrozenconflictsinNagorno-Karabakh,Abkhazia,and
SouthOssetia,ishighlylikelytoundergomajorchangesasafunctionofitsinternaldynamicsanddevelopmentsaround
itinthenextfivetotenyears.
AmajordriverofchangeintheSouthCaucasuspromisestobeAzerbaijan.Hailedinthe1990sasasecularIslamic
countrywithamoderateauthoritarianregimepresidedoverbyarelativelytolerantpro-Westernleader,Azerbaijanalso
hadvasteconomicpotentialthankstoitsoilwealthandopennesstoforeignoilcompaniesinvestment.Little,ifany,of
thatpromisehasmaterialized.TherelativelybenignandconfidentdictatorshipofHeydarAliyevwasreplacedin2003
bythekleptocratic,increasinglyinsecure,andhighlyintolerantregimeofhissonIlham.Theregimesappealtothe
publicbasedonitsclaimofdeliveringameasureofwell-beinghasbeenerodedbythedeclineinthepriceofoilthathas
dealtasevereblowtoAzerbaijanseconomy.152Moreover,theprospectofdepletingitsmajoroildepositsthreatens
thecountrywiththelossofitscriticalsourceofrevenueatatimewhenitsalternativestrategyofpositioningitselfasa
keysupplierandtransithubofnaturalgashastocontendwiththesamefalloutfromthelowoilpriceenvironment.153
Theproteststhathaverockedthecountryastheeconomysputtersraisequestionsabouttheregimeslongevityand
abilitytosustaindomesticstability.Intheeventofaprolongedeconomicslumpcausedbylowoilprices,IlhamAliyevs
regimewouldhaveseveraloptions,noneofthemmutuallyexclusive:tocontinuetotightentherestrictionsonthe
oppositionandcivilsocietytotrytouseitsdecliningfinancialresourcestoaddressthemostpressingneedsandto
appealtonationalunityandpatriotismbyexploitingthethemeofNagorno-Karabakhandlaunchingamilitarycampaign
toregaintheoccupiedterritories.154
TheoutlookforAzerbaijancontainsbleakalternatives.Oneofthemisaninternaldestabilizationandlossofcontrolby
theregime.AnotherwouldberenewedconflictwithArmeniaoverNagorno-Karabakh.Athirdpossibilityentailsboth.
IlhamAliyevssuppressionofnotjustalloppositionbutnearlyallcivicorganizationsandmanifestationsofindependent
opinionhasunderminedAzerbaijanstieswithEuropeandtheUnitedStates.Asaresult,theWestwouldnothavethe
necessaryleveragetomoderatetheregimesbehaviordomesticallyorinternationally.155
ThefightingthatbrokeoutbetweenArmeniaandAzerbaijaninApril2016servedasagrimreminderofhowfragilethe
situationisalongtheirlineofcontact.Tomakemattersworse,acrisisinvolvingAzerbaijanandArmeniacoulddraw
intoitthreecriticalexternalactors:Russia,Turkey,andIran.Allthreehavemajorstakesintheregion.Russiaand
Turkeywouldverylikelybepittedagainsteachotherinthenewconflictsupportingtheirrespectiveclientstates.
InternalturmoilinAzerbaijanevenwithoutaconflictwithArmeniawouldalmostcertainlyinvolvemeddlingbyallthree
neighboringpowers,eachforitsownreasonsseekingtoexpanditsinfluenceinthecountry,whichtheyconsidertobe
ofcriticalgeopoliticalimportance.
AcrisisinvolvingAzerbaijanandArmeniacoulddrawintoitthree
criticalexternalactors:Russia,Turkey,andIran.
WithRussia,Turkey,andIrancompetingforinfluenceinAzerbaijan,thecountryandthesurroundingregioncould
experiencespilloversfromtheconflictandtheneighborsreactionstoit.ThesewouldalmostcertainlyaffectArmenia
andGeorgia,consideringtheboundarylinesdrawnwithoutregardtoethnicdivisions,andinfrastructureandsupply
routesthattraversetheentireregion.
Predictingtheoutcomeofthisturmoilisaninherentlydifficulttask.Russia,Iran,andTurkeyallhaveadvantagesand
disadvantagesintheirpursuitofinfluenceoverAzerbaijan.RussiaandIranhavetheadvantageofsharedborderswith
Azerbaijan,whileTurkeyhastheadvantageofethnickinshipandlong-terminvestmentintherelationshipwith
Azerbaijan.However,RussiahashadtodealwithitsowntroubledNorthCaucasusIranhastobemindfulofitsown
AzerbaijaniTurkishpopulationandTurkeywouldhavetocrossGeorgianorArmenianterritorytogettoAzerbaijan.
Allofthesearelikelytobecomplicatingfactorsfortheirinvolvementthere,thougheachofthesecomplicatingfactors
couldserveasarationaleforinterveninginAzerbaijaniturmoil.
TheturmoilcouldlastforyearsandbecomepartofthelargerturmoilintheMiddleEast,withIranandTurkeypitted
againsteachotherinSyria,Russian-TurkishrelationsattheirworstsincetheColdWar,andweapons,refugees,
militants,andillicitgoodscrossinginalldirections.TheCaucasusregionmaynotseestabilityreturnforadecadeor
longer.
Onceameasureofstabilityisrestored,theregion,boththeNorthandtheSouthCaucasus,maynotberecognizable,
withnewbordersandpossiblyevensomestatesdisappearingfromthemap.Theshapeoftheregionislikelytobe
determinedbydevelopmentsaroundtheregionRussiasowntrajectoryandabilitytosecuretheNorthCaucasus
TurkeysabilitytohandleitsKurdishproblemthefutureofIraqandtheconflictinSyria.Allofthesewillhavea
bearingontheCaucasusregion,whichisnolongerseparated,asitoncewas,fromtheGreaterMiddleEast.Whatis
clear,however,isthattheregionisheadingintoanuncertainfuturefullofdangersallofthatonRussiasdoorstep.
CentralAsiaisinthemidstofabiggeopoliticalchangewhoseconsequencesforRussiaandEurasiaarelikelytobefelt
inthenextdecadeandbeyond.ThefirstquartercenturyofindependenceforthefivestatesofformerlySovietCentral
Asiawasatimeofestablishingtheirownstatehood,securingtheirsovereignty,andbuildinglinkstotheoutsideworld.
Formuchofthatperiod,theWest,andespeciallytheUnitedStates,playedakeyroleasasupporterofthefivestates
independence,sovereignty,andintegrationintotheinternationalarena.156
WiththeUnitedStatesandEuropelargelyout,Russianinfluence
down,andChinaascendantinCentralAsia,theregionisallbut
certaintoshiftitsgeopoliticalorientationfromtheWesttothe
East.
DuringthepostColdWarperiodoftheWestsdominance,thenewstatesintegrationintotheinternationalarenawas
toaverylargeextentequatedwithbuildingtiestoWesternstructurestheOrganizationforSecurityandCooperation
inEurope,theWorldBank,andtheIMF,aswellasNATOandtheEU.Moreover,thankstotheU.S.-ledcampaignin
Afghanistan,theWestservedasamajorsecurityprovidertoCentralAsiafornearlyadecadeandahalfafterthe
September11,2001,terroristattacks.Insum,forthefirstquartercenturyofCentralAsiasindependence,theWest
playedakeyroleinensuringtheregionssecurity.EvenRussia,asaEuropeanpower,albeitnotcontenttoseethe
UnitedStatesanditsNATOalliesinvolvedinitsjealouslyguardedbackyard,ineffectservedasaconnectionto
EuropeforCentralAsia.
minimizeitsrolethere,whilemanyU.S.allieshavepulledtheirforcesoutofAfghanistanaltogether.TheWestsroleas
asecurityproviderforCentralAsiaisending.
Tradeandinvestmentflows,too,aredrivingCentralAsiatowardadifferentgravitationalpolefromtheWestChina.
ChinastradewithCentralAsiahasincreasedmorethanahundredfoldinthepastquartercenturyandpassedthe$50
billionmarkin2013.Chineseinvestmentinpipelines,roads,andenergyexplorationismeasuredinthetensofbillionsof
dollarsandisprojectedtogrowfurther,asChinaplansambitiousnewprojectsfortheregioninthenextdecade.Russia
hasbeenlosingtheeconomiccompetitionwithChinainCentralAsia,whiletheUnitedStatesandEuropebarely
registerastradepartners.157
WiththeUnitedStatesandEuropelargelyout,Russianinfluencedown,andChinaascendantinCentralAsia,theregion
isallbutcertainfortheforeseeablefuturetoshiftitsgeopoliticalorientationfromtheWest,towhichitwasleaning
duringthefirstquartercenturyofitsindependence,totheEast.Thisisboundtohavefar-reachingconsequencesforall
involved.
providingsecurityfortheregion.AgreaterburdeninthisrespectwillfallontheCentralAsiastatesthemselves,aswell
asontheirimmediateneighbors,especiallyRussiaandChina.ThisraisesthequestionofRussiasabilitytoactasthe
regionssecuritymanagerforCentralAsiainlightofMoscowslimitedcapabilitiesandchallengeselsewhere,andof
Chinaswilltoengageintheregioninaroleithasbeenreluctanttoassume.Theresultofthischangewillbegreater
uncertaintyandpotentiallygreaterinstabilityfacingRussianplannersastheycontemplatethefutureoftheregionthat
theyhavelongviewedasamajorvulnerabilityontheirperiphery.ItseemsnothingisstableandsecureonRussias
thresholdanywhere,initsfrontyardoritsbackyard.
Conclusion
AttheendofthefirstquartercenturyafterthebreakupoftheSovietUnion,Russiaisathreattoitsneighborsandfeels
deeplythreatenedbythem.Itssenseofvulnerabilityandinferiorityvis--vistheWestislong-standinganddeep,andit
issurroundedbyavast,diverse,andturbulentregionwithamultitudeofpotentialcrisesthatholdoutthepossibilityof
escalatingintolargerconflicts.ThisunstablesituationinEuropesEastandEurasiaisaproductoftheinterplayoverthe
pasttwenty-fiveyearsofmultiplefactors,bothindigenoustotheirhomeregionsandresultingfromactionsofoutside
powersandexternaldevelopments.
ChiefamongthesefactorsisRussiasownevolutionfromaquietlydissenting,grumbling,butnonethelesslargelypassive
bystanderindevelopmentofthepostColdWarEuro-Atlanticsecurityarchitectureintoitsactiveopponentandastate
capableofprojectingpowerarounditsperipheryandassertingitselfbeyonditsimmediateneighborhoodindefenseof
itsinterests.Aseriesofeventsthe2008Russian-GeorgianWar,the2014annexationofCrimeaandthewarin
easternUkraine,theemergenceofsecuritythreatstotheBaltics,theeconomicstormsbuffetingRussiasneighborsfrom
MoldovatoTajikistanillustrateshowmuchswayRussiacontinuestoholdoverthesecurityandwell-beingofthe
post-Sovietstates,nomatterhowmuchtheyhavetriedtoleavethatlabelbehindandbreakoutoftheRussiansphere
ofinfluence.
Russia,inotherwords,remainstheessentialsecuritypillarinEasternEuropeandEurasia.Astable,prosperous,secure,
andfriendlyRussiaisfarmorelikelytobeasourceofthesametoitsneighborsthanthealternativeaninsecure,
unstable,andstrugglingRussia,whichhascastalonganddarkshadowoverthem.
UnfortunatelyforRussiasneighborsandfortheirfriends,allies,andpartners,theprospectofastable,prosperous,
secure,andfriendlyRussiaisremote.Theoutlookforthecountryfortheforeseeablefutureisbleakabsentmajor
reforms,whereassuchreformsappearunlikely.
NowhereisthesenseofpessimismaboutRussiasprospectsmoreacutethaninsideRussiaitself.ItpermeatesRussian
assessmentsofthecountryseconomicconditionandprospects,itspoliticalstability,anditsmilitaryinrelationtothe
threatsandchallengestoitssecurity.Foremostamongthesesecuritythreats,intheviewofRussiandefenseexperts,is
NATO,followedcloselybyfragilestatesaroundRussiasperiphery.
includingRussia,isseenbyitssecurityestablishmentastheprincipalchallengetoitssecurityandstability,intendedto
exploititsmanyvulnerabilities.ThisassessmentofWesternmotivesandactionsresultingfromthemhasenduredwith
remarkableconsistencyintheRussiannationalsecuritynarrativesincetheearliestdaysofthepost-SovietRussianstate
tothepresent.ItisthedominantviewinMoscowsnationalsecurityestablishmentwithnodissentingvoicesofany
consequence.
economically,militarilyvis--vistheWest.ThecombinationofRussiasinsecurityanditsperceptionoftheWests
hostilitytoithasbeentheprincipaldriverofRussiansecuritypolicy.TherejectionofexpansionbyNATOandtheEU
intocountriesapparentlygenuinelyviewedbyRussianpolicymakersaswithintheirsphereofprivilegedinterests,
coupledwiththefearoftheWesternsecurityandpoliticalorderapproachingRussiasborders,wasthekeymotivator
behindthewarwithGeorgiaandtheundeclaredwaragainstUkraine.ThisunderlyingRussianworldviewisunlikelyto
changeintheforeseeablefuture.
TheemergingnewsecurityorderwithNATOrethinkingitspostColdWarpostureforthefirsttimeinaquarter
centuryandrebuildingitsdeterrentcapabilitiesandwithRussiabuildingupitsmilitarycapabilitiesalongitswestern
borderisunstableandunpredictable.BothRussiaandtheWestfeelinsecureandcompelledtodomore,raisingthe
risksofanescalatorydynamicinthenameofdefenseanddeterrence.
NothingjustifiesRussiasundeclaredwaragainstUkraine,whichviolatedmultipleRussianinternationalcommitments
andhastriggeredtheworstpoliticalandsecuritycrisisinEuropeinageneration.However,indevisingtheirresponseto
Russianactions,WesternpolicymakersshouldbeclearaboutthedriversandmotivationsofRussianactionsthe
insecurityandperceptionofvulnerabilityasregardstheWest,ingrainedinRussiasnationalsecurityestablishmentfora
generation.WesternpolicymakersshouldalsobeclearthatMoscowhasneveracceptedtheargumentthatthe
expansionofWesterninstitutionswasmeantasamovetowarditratherthanagainstit.
WesterndiscussionsaboutthenewlydiscoveredvulnerabilityofNATOalliesthatborderRussia,especiallytheBaltic
states,mustnotoverlookthefactthattheBalticstatesmembershipinNATOhasmeanttoRussianmilitaryplanners
thatNATO,stillseenasahostilealliance,isnowonly100milesfromSaintPetersburg,andthatthecurrentbuildupof
NATOcapabilitiesintheBalticstatesisoccurringlessthanatwo-hourdrivefromRussiassecondmostimportantcity.
Westernpolicymakersshouldhavenoillusionsthatthebuildupofdefenseanddeterrentcapabilitiesinthefrontline
stateswillhaveastabilizingeffectonthestandoffbetweenNATOandRussia.ThebuildupofRussiananti-accessand
area-denial(A2/AD)capabilitiesinCrimeaandKaliningradandthreatstodeploynuclearweaponstherearestrong
indicatorsthattensionswillincreaseratherthansubsideintheseregions.158
Inthiscontext,themostdisturbingaspectofthisrenewedadversarialrelationshipisthereturnofthespecterofnuclear
wartotheEuropeancontinent.Russiaslong-standingperceivedinferiorityvis--visNATOsconventionalcapabilities
andtheirproximitytotheRussianheartlandhavegivenrisetoamilitarystrategythatassignsacriticalroletolimited
nuclearstrikesearlyinaconflictasameansofthwartingNATOsconventionaldominanceandendingtheconflict
beforeitresultsindevastatinglossestotheheartland.Defenseofthehomelandhastakenonenhancedprioritybecause
afterthelossoftheouterandinnerempiresandtheexpansionofNATO,ithasbecometheforwardareainanyfuture
conflictbetweenRussiaandNATO.
writingsaboutearlynuclearuseshouldnotbetreatedasareliableindicatoroffutureRussianactions.Nonetheless,the
prominenceofnuclearweaponsinRussianstrategicthoughtisindicativeofthecountrysperceivedvulnerabilitiesand
intensityoftheadversarialrelationshipwiththeWest.
FortheUnitedStatesanditsallies,thisposesadauntingchallengehowtorespondtoRussianactionsinamanner
thatensuresacredible,robustdeterrentposturethatisstabilizinganddoesnotfeedRussiasworstperceptionsofits
ownvulnerabilities.RelianceonnucleardeterrenceinthiscontextcouldproveescalatoryandreinforceRussianmilitary
plannersnuclearleanings,whilerelianceonconventionalmeanswouldunderscoreRussiasperceivedvulnerabilities.
NowherewilltheadversarialrelationshipbetweenRussiaandthe
WestplayoutwithgreaterintensitythaninEasternEurope.
NowherewilltheadversarialrelationshipbetweenRussiaandtheWestplayoutwithgreaterintensitythaninEastern
EuropethestatesoftheformerSovietUnionthathavenotjoinedtheEuro-Atlanticpolitical,economic,andsecurity
institutionsandareunwillingtojointheRussian-dominatedcounterpartEurasianstructures.Armenia,Azerbaijan,
Belarus,Georgia,Moldova,andUkrainehavebecomethebattlegroundstates,toonedegreeoranotherpulledin
differentdirectionsinthegeopoliticaltug-of-warbetweenRussiaandtheWest.
Much,ifnotmost,oftheattentionfollowingRussiasaggressionagainstUkrainehasbeenfocusedontheBalticstates
astheNATOalliesmostexposedandvulnerabletoRussianattack.Balticdefenseisundoubtedlyamajorchallengefor
thealliance.However,Russianactionsbefore,during,andsincetheaggressionagainstUkrainesuggestthatMoscow
stilltakesNATOsArticle5securityguaranteeofitsmembersseriouslyandthatitisnotpreparedtotestthatguarantee
directly.Rather,itsactionsinformationandcyberoperations,airspaceviolations,nuclearsaberrattling,andthelike
appearaimedatcreatinganairofuncertaintyaboutthatguaranteeandunderminingmemberstatesconfidenceinit.
RussianleadershavedemonstratedtwicebytheiractionsinGeorgiain2008andinUkrainesince2014thatthey
takethatguaranteeseriously.Russianleaderswenttowartwicetopreventthetwocountriesfrommovingclosertothe
WestandeventuallyastheysawitjoiningNATO.
TheexperiencesofUkraineandGeorgiahaveprofoundimplicationsforthesixbattlegroundstates.LackingNATOs
securityguarantee,theyremaininwhatMoscowperceivesasitssphereofprivilegedinterests.Itispreparedtouseall
availablemeans,includingmilitaryforce,tokeeptheminthatsphere.AslongastheWestisnotpreparedtoconsign
thesestatestotheRussiansphere,theybecomethearenaforEast-Westcompetition.
cooperatewithRussia,oratleastseekitsconsenttopursuetheirinterestsinEurasia.Besidestheobviousexamplesof
Syria,Afghanistan,ornucleartalkswithIran,inallofwhichRussiahasplayedanimportantpart,futureexamplesof
suchsituationsmayinvolvecontingenciesinEasternEurope,theSouthCaucasus,orCentralAsia.Inallofthose
locations,whetherforreasonsofgeography,politics,oreconomics,theUnitedStatesanditsallieswillneedtoget
Russiaonboardtobeabletorespondtonaturaldisasters,humanitariancrises,regionalconflicts,orotherunforeseen
events.
AbsentmajorchangesinoutlookonthepartofeitherRussiaor
NATO,thisadversarialrelationshipwillremainthekeyfeatureof
theEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderfortheforeseeablefuture.
Moreover,evenintimeswhencircumstancesforceRussiaandtheWesttocooperate,Russiaislikelytosustainits
otherdestabilizingbehaviors.Theuseofmeasuresshortofwareconomicleversinstatesthatarevulnerable,suchas
Bulgaria,Cyprus,orGreeceandbribery,blackmail,infiltrationofintelligenceoperatives,andanassortmentofother
tacticswillbepartofthetoolkitdeployedbyRussianpolicymakersintimesofcrisis,aswellasinpeacetimeaspartof
thenormalcontinuationofwarfarebyothermeans.
Russiasrelianceontheseformsofcompetitionshortofoutrightwarfareisfullyjustifiedintheeyesofthecountrys
securityestablishmentasasymmetricmeanswarrantedbytheperceivedRussia-NATOimbalance.Russianrelianceon
themandtheintensityofitsoppositiontotheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderareunlikelytodiminishifitseconomic
prospectsordomesticstabilityerode.Onthecontrary,suchreliancemaybecomeevengreaterasotherinstrumentsin
itstoolkitbecomescarcer.
AsseenfromRussia,theenvironmentinEuropeandEurasiahasleftMoscowwithoutreliablepartners,letaloneallies.
NATOsexpansionhaspositionedthealliance,viewedbyRussianelitesasadversarial,onthecountrysdoorstep,far
closerthanithaseverbeen.TheothersideofthiscoinisthatRussiaisonNATOsdoorstepasithasneverbeen
before.Theresultisastateofprofoundmutualinsecurity.AbsentmajorchangesinoutlookonthepartofeitherRussia
orNATO,thisadversarialrelationshipwillremainthekeyfeatureoftheEuro-Atlanticsecurityorderfortheforeseeable
future.Eventually,itwilltakeapolitical,notamilitary,solutiontoaddressthesetensions.
Notes
2DmitriTrenin,TheCrisisinCrimeaCouldLeadtheWorldIntoaSecondColdWar,Guardian,March2,2014,
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/02/crimea-crisis-russia-ukraine-cold-war.
3ThisissueisdiscussedindetailinRajanMenonandEugeneRumer,ConflictinUkraine:TheUnwindingofthe
PostColdWarOrder(Cambridge,MA:MITPress,2015).
7,:,
8Ibid.
9YevgeniyAmbartsumov,InteresyRossiiNeZnayutGranits[Russianinterestsknownoborders],Megapolis-
Express,May6,1992.
10AleksandrVladislavlevandSergeyKaraganov,TyazhkiyKrestRossii[Russiasheavycross],Nezavisimaya
Gazeta,November11,1992.
13RogerCohen,YeltsinOpposesExpansionofNATOinEasternEurope,NewYorkTimes,October2,1993,
http://www.nytimes.com/1993/10/02/world/yeltsin-opposes-expansion-of-nato-in-eastern-europe.html.
14Ibid.
15JamestownFoundation,ChubaisDemandsCompensationforNATOEnlargement,Monitor3,no.84(April
1997).
17DouglasJ.Gillert,AfterJumping,BattalionLearnstoCrawl,DoDNews,U.S.DepartmentofDefense,October
1,1997.
20:,,
,172015,http://glavred.info/mir/zhurnalist-rf-o-motivacii-putina-pomnit-sudby-miloshevicha-kaddafi-i-
dedushki-pinocheta-323242.html.
21CelesteA.Wallander,RussianNationalSecurityPolicyin2000(PONARS[ProgramonNewApproachesto
RussianSecurity]PolicyMemo102,DavisCenterforRussianStudies,HarvardUniversity,2000)NikolaiSokov,
TheViewsoftheMilitaryLeadership,inModernizationofStrategicNuclearWeaponsinRussia:TheEmergingNew
Posture(PONARSWorkingPaperNo.6,DavisCenterforRussianStudies,HarvardUniversity,May1998).
23PutinsPreparedRemarksat43rdMunichConferenceonSecurityPolicy,WashingtonPost,February12,2007,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2007/02/12/AR2007021200555.html.
24UweKlumann,MatthiasSchepp,andKlausWiegrefe,NATOsEastwardExpansion:DidtheWestBreakIts
PromisetoMoscow?,SpiegelOnline,November26,2009,http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/nato-s-
eastward-expansion-did-the-west-break-its-promise-to-moscow-a-663315.html.
25MaryEliseSarotte,ABrokenPromise?WhattheWestReallyToldMoscowAboutNATOExpansion,Foreign
Affairs,September/October2014,http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russia-fsu/2014-08-11/broken-promise.
26SergeyLavrov,Democracy,InternationalGovernance,andtheFutureWorldOrder,RussiainGlobalAffairs,
no.1(February9,2005):http://eng.globalaffairs.ru/number/n_4422.
27CheneyChidesRussiaonDemocracy,BBC,May4,2006,http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/4972464.stm.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/04/05/world/europe/05nato.htmlTextofPutinsSpeechatNATOSummit(Bucharest,
April2,2008),UnianInformationAgency,April18,2008,http://www.unian.info/world/111033-text-of-putins-
speech-at-nato-summit-bucharest-april-2-2008.html.
34DavidM.HerszenhornandEllenBarry,LargeAnti-PutinProtestSignalsGrowingResolve,NewYorkTimes,
June12,2012,http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/world/europe/anti-putin-demonstrators-gather-in-moscow.html
HundredsDetainedAfterMoscowAnti-PutinProtest,Guardian,March5,2012,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/blog/2012/mar/05/russian-election-reaction-putin-liveRussianPresidentDmitry
MedvedevAdmitsPoliticalReformNecessary,Telegraph,December22,2011,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/8972807/Russian-President-Dmitry-Medvedev-admits-
political-reform-necessary.html.
35Russia,SovietStyle,NewYorkTimes,June12,2012,http://www.nytimes.com/2012/06/13/opinion/russia-
soviet-style.html.
36KarounDemirjian,MeanwhileinRussia,PutinPassesLawAgainstProtests,WashingtonPost,July22,2014,
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2014/07/22/meanwhile-in-russia-putin-passes-law-against-
protests/MiriamElder,RussiansFearCrackdownasHundredsAreArrestedAfterAnti-PutinProtest,Guardian,
March6,2012,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2012/mar/06/russians-crackdown-anti-putin-protestKathyLally
andKarenDeYoung,PutinAccusesClinton,U.S.ofFomentingElectionProtests,WashingtonPost,December8,
2011,http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/putin-accuses-clinton-us-of-stirring-election-
protests/2011/12/08/gIQA0MUDfO_story.html.
38VladimirPutin,ANewIntegrationProjectforEurasia:TheFutureintheMaking,Izvestia,October3,2011,as
reprintedbythePermanentMissionoftheRussianFederationtotheEuropeanUnion,
http://www.russianmission.eu/en/news/article-prime-minister-vladimir-putin-new-integration-project-eurasia-future-
making-izvestia-3-.
39Ibid.
41OleksandrSushko,AForkintheRoad?UkraineBetweenEUAssociationandtheEurasianCustomsUnion
(PONARSEurasiaPolicyMemoNo.293,September2013)tefanFle,StatementonthePressureExercisedby
RussiaonCountriesoftheEasternPartnership,pressrelease,EuropeanCommission,September11,2013.
InternationalPeace,July30,2014,http://carnegieendowment.org/2014/07/30/saving-ukraine-s-defense-industry.
4316%ofNaturalGasConsumedinEuropeFlowsThroughUkraine,U.S.EnergyInformationAdministration,
March14,2014,http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.cfm?id=15411.
44JudyDempsey,U.S.SenatorUrgesUseofNATODefenseClauseforEnergy,InternationalHeraldTribune,
November28,2006,http://www.nytimes.com/2006/11/28/world/europe/28iht-nato.3702073.html.
46DanLamothe,RussiaIsGreatestThreattotheU.S.,SaysJointChiefsChairmanNomineeGen.JosephDunford,
WashingtonPost,July9,2015,http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/checkpoint/wp/2015/07/09/russia-is-greatest-
threat-to-the-u-s-says-joint-chiefs-chairman-nominee-gen-joseph-dunford/.
Journal,May1,2016,http://www.wsj.com/articles/natos-breedlove-calls-for-sharper-focus-on-russia-ahead-of-
departure-1462115561TheodoreSchleiferandJimSciutto,TopArmyLeader:RussiaIsMostDangerousThreat
FacingU.S.,CNN,August12,2015,http://www.cnn.com/2015/08/12/politics/russia-army-leader-dangerous-
odierno/.
49,,,,,152016,
http://www.ng.ru/courier/2016-02-15/9_friends.html.
50,,112015,
http://kremlin.ru/events/president/news/50913.
51,,312015,
52,:
,,102015,http://www.ng.ru/news/519934.html?print=Y.
54,,,232014,
http://rg.ru/2014/04/23/karaganov-site.html.
Estratgicos,December31,2015,http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/OtrasPublicaciones/Internacional/2016/Russian-
National-Security-Strategy-31Dec2015.pdf.
56Transcript:InterviewWithSergeiIvanov,FinancialTimes,June21,2015,http://next.ft.com/content/b81bbd70-
17f0-11e5-a130-2e7db721f996.
57,,,222015,http://m.rg.ru/2015/12/22/patrushev-
site.html.
58,:,
59,,.,29,2015,
.
60,.
61,.
62,:.
63,:,,15
64,2023-:,,21
2015,http://www.rbc.ru/opinions/economics/21/12/2015/567799949a79478889fd54ee
,http://svop.ru.
653.,,302015,
66,:,,
67:,,22
2016,http://tass.ru/ekonomika/3303885,,,29
68,,,182015,http://vpk-news.ru/articles/24284.
69Ibid.
70NATOCondemnsPutinsNuclearSabre-Rattling,BBC,June16,2015,http://www.bbc.com/news/world-
europe-33153703AdamWithnall,RussiaThreatensDenmarkWithNuclearWeaponsifItTriestoJoinNATO
DefenceShield,Independent,March22,2015.
71DavidLermanandTerryAtlas,RussiasSaber-RattlingThreatensStability,U.S.Says,Bloomberg,June25,
2015,http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-threatens-denmark-with-nuclear-weapons-if-it-tries-
to-join-nato-defence-shield-10125529.html.
72,,,
73MaryC.Fitzgerald,MarshalOgarkovonModernWar:19771985,ProfessionalPaper443.10,Centerfor
NavalAnalyses,revisedNovember1986.
76,,-,252015,http://vpk-
WashingtonPost,October24,2015,http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/in-1983-war-scare-
soviet-leadership-feared-nuclear-surprise-attack-by-us/2015/10/24/15a289b4-7904-11e5-a958-
78Forathoroughdiscussionofthis,seePavelPodvig,DidStarWarsHelpEndtheColdWar?SovietResponseto
theSDIProgram(workingpaper,RussianNuclearForcesProject,March17,2013).
79:,,18
2015,http://ria.ru/interview/20150218/1048334517.html.
80Ibid.
81,,-,13
82,,
,282012,http://nvo.ng.ru/armament/2012-09-28/11_satan.html.
83,-,282013,http://vpk-
news.ru/news/16557.
84Ibid,,.,182004,
http://polit.ru/article/2004/11/18/slipch/,
,,2013,http://www.intertrends.ru/thirty-second/Volodin.pdf
...,Viperson.ru,30
2012,http://viperson.ru/wind.php?ID=652675.
85,
,:
,-,,,202020.,
http://www.armscontrol.ru/pubs/em092012.htm.
86,,,-,13
2014,http://www.vko.ru/geopolitika/ugrozy-bezopasnosti-rossii.
87,,,-,-
88Ibid.
89RussiaHasDeliveredOver1,000AirstrikesinSyriaSinceStartofYearGeneral,TASS,January11,2016,
90,,,232014,
http://www.ng.ru/armies/2014-09-23/1_rogozin.html.
91StepanKravchenko,PutinTellsDefenseChiefstoStrengthenRussianNuclearForces,Bloomberg,December
11,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-11/putin-tells-defense-chiefs-to-strengthen-russian-
nuclear-forces.
92,,
,122014,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-09-12/1_oborona.html.
93,:4202,
,,222015,
94,-.,,
162014,http://www.ng.ru/armies/2014-12-16/3_kartblansh.html.
95,:4202,
,,222015,
96PetrTopychkanov,IsRussiaAfraidofChineseandIndianMissiles?CarnegieMoscowCenter,November3,
2014,http://carnegie.ru/2014/11/03/is-russia-afraid-of-chinese-and-indian-missiles.
97,Newsru.com,42015,
http://www.newsru.com/russia/04jul2015/midnukes.html.
98,,,3
99,,,-,27
2016,http://vpk-news.ru/articles/30420.
100:,
101Ibid.
102,,
103:,
105:,,13
106,,312015,
107AgenceFrance-Presse,VladimirPutinWarnsRussianstoAvoidGoogle:TheInternetIsaCIASpecialProject,
RawStory,April24,2014,http://www.rawstory.com/2014/04/vladimir-putin-warns-russians-to-avoid-google-the-
internet-is-a-cia-special-project/RussiaandChinaWantMoreControlOvertheInternet,Stratfor,August14,2015,
http://www.stratfor.com/sample/analysis/russia-and-china-want-more-control-over-internet.
108,:,
,,32015,http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2781186.
109,,122016,http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-
02-12/2_red.htmlRussiasChiefInternetCensorEnlistsChinasKnow-How,FinancialTimes,April27,2016.
110,.,,1
111MasterCard,VisaNowProcessRussianPaymentsThroughSanction-ProofSystem,MoscowTimes,May28,
2015,http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/mastercard-visa-now-process-russian-payments-through-
sanction-proof-system/522576.html.
112TASS,RussiaMayUseChinasPaymentInfrastructureInsteadofSWIFTVTBBankHead,RussiaBeyond
theHeadlines,March11,2015,
113RussiaBrainstormsStrategytoReplaceBannedWesternDefenseImports,MoscowTimes,August14,2014,
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russia-brainstorms-strategy-to-replace-banned-western-defense-
imports/505133.html.
taxman/491910.html.
116RobinNiblett,NATOMustFocusontheHybridWarsBeingWagedontheWest,FinancialTimes,July17,
2014,http://next.ft.com/content/3192c7a0-0cd2-11e4-bf1e-00144feabdc0JohnVandiver,SACEUR:AlliesMust
PrepareforRussiaHybridWar,StarsandStripes,September4,2014,http://www.stripes.com/news/saceur-allies-
must-prepare-for-russia-hybrid-war-1.301464.
118,(:,2015),
%D0%A1.%D0%90.,%D0%93%D0%B8%D0%B1%D1%80%D0%B8%D0%B4%D0%BD%D0%B0%D1%8F
%D0%B2%D0%BE%D0%B9%D0%BD%D0%B0%D0%BF%D1%80%D0%BE%D1%82%D0%B8%D0%B2
%D0%A0%D0%BE%D1%81%D1%81%D0%B8%D0%B8.pdf,
,-,182016,
119,,,142014,http://topwar.ru/56079-
(II),,132015,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2015-
03-13/1_gybrid2.html,:,
120,:,,22
2016,http://nvo.ng.ru/concepts/2014-10-10/1_nato.html.
121,,,302015,http://topwar.ru/75928-mif-
o-gibridnoy-voyne.html.
122Ibid.
123ShaunWalker,AlexisTsiprasinMoscowAsksEuropetoEndSanctionsAgainstRussia,Guardian,April8,
2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/apr/08/alexis-tsipras-in-moscow-asks-europe-to-end-sanctions-
against-russiaGeorgiGotev,BulgarianParliamentAlmostRejectedtheEUSanctionsAgainstRussia,EurActiv,
October8,2015,http://www.euractiv.com/section/europe-s-east/news/bulgarian-parliament-almost-rejected-the-eu-
sanctions-against-russia/.
http://www.politico.eu/article/le-pen-russia-crimea-putin-money-bank-national-front-seeks-russian-cash-for-election-
fight/.
125MelanieAmannetal.,TheHybridWar:RussiasPropagandaCampaignAgainstGermany,SpiegelOnline,
January30,2016,http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/putin-wages-hybrid-war-on-germany-and-west-a-
1075483.htmlTheCzechsandRussia:SpyVersusPolitician,Economist,October29,2014,
126,,,231995,
-9785d26186b2#.byb71wmzt.
127DmitryZhdannikovandGuyFaulconbridge,KhodorkovskySaysPutinIsLeadingRussiaTowardStagnation,
Collapse,Reuters,November27,2015,http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-khodorkovsky-west-
idUSKBN0TF23920151126.
meaningfulbreakwithPutinism.ThisanalysisalsoassumesthatPutinremainshealthyandthattherewillbenocoup
againsthimfortheremainderofhiscurrentterm.
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http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-moscow-church-protest-torfyanka-park/27095836.htmlAlexeyMalashenko,
DivisionsandDefianceAmongRussiasMuslims,CarnegieMoscowCenter,November20,2015,
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MoscowRiotsExposeRacismattheHeartofRussianFootball,Guardian,December18,2010,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2010/dec/19/spartak-moscow-race-riots-ultranationalistAlexeyMalashenkoand
AlexeyStarostin,TheRiseofNontraditionalIslamintheUrals,CarnegieMoscowCenter,September30,2015,
http://carnegie.ru/2015/09/30/rise-of-nontraditional-islam-in-urals/iie6.
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2013-04-25/putin-s-medieval-peace-pact-in-chechnyaMichaelSchwirtz,
RussianAngerGrowsOverChechnyaSubsidies,NewYorkTimes,October8,2011,
http://www.nytimes.com/2011/10/09/world/europe/chechnyas-costs-stir-anger-as-russia-approaches-elections.html
Ex-MinisterSaysRussiaWillCutDefenseBudgetin23Years,TASS,January13,2016,
http://www.rt.com/business/328915-russia-social-spending-2016/MoscowProtestersRallyAgainstBudgetCutsin
Science,Education,RT,June6,2015,http://www.rt.com/news/265495-moscow-protest-science-education/Eugene
Vorotnikov,GovernmentPlanstoCut10%OffUniversityFunding,UniversityWorldNews,February20,2015,
http://www.universityworldnews.com/article.php?story=20150220085025625.
132MikhailKrutikhin,GrabandShare:NewTaxProposalsforRussiasOilIndustry,CarnegieMoscowCenter,
October15,2015,http://carnegie.ru/publications/?fa=61623,
,,242015,
,,302015,
http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2015-12-30/1_otredaktora.html.
134NATOLeaderSaysRussiaBuildingArcofSteelinEurope,U.S.DepartmentofDefense,October6,2015,
http://www.defense.gov/News-Article-View/Article/622080/nato-leader-says-russia-building-arc-of-steel-in-europe
NaftaliBendavid,NATORampsUpResponsetoRussia,WallStreetJournal,June24,2015,
http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-ramps-up-response-to-russia-1435174136.
http://nato.gov.si/eng/topic/national-security/neutral-status/neutral-countries/TheEffectsofFinlandsPossibleNATO
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contentid=345685TomasBertelman,JohanMolander,andSven-OlofPeterson,APowerfulCaseforSwedish
MembershipinNATO,NATOSource(blog),AtlanticCouncil,August21,2015,
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/natosource/a-powerful-case-for-swedish-membership-in-nato.
136RichardFontaineandJulianneSmith,Anti-Access/AreaDenialIsntJustforAsiaAnymore,DefenseOne,April
2,2015,http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2015/04/anti-accessarea-denial-isnt-just-asia-anymore/109108/.
137AgenceFrance-Presse,BelarusPoll:EULiftsSanctionsonLukashenkoEuropesLastDictator,Guardian,
October12,2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/13/belarus-poll-eu-lifts-sanctions-on-lukashenko-
europes-last-dictator.
138SabraAyres,AsBelarusEconomyFalters,LukashenkoLooksWest,AlJazeeraAmerica,January3,2016,
http://america.aljazeera.com/multimedia/2016/1/as-belarus-economy-falters-lukashenko-looks-west.html.
139AnasMarin,TradingOffSovereignty.TheOutcomeofBelarussIntegrationWithRussiaintheSecurityand
DefenceField,OrodekStudiwWschodnich,April29,2013,http://www.osw.waw.pl/en/publikacje/osw-
commentary/2013-04-29/trading-sovereignty-outcome-belaruss-integration-russiaChrisBiggers,RussianAirbasein
BelarusRemainsinLimbo,Bellingcat,December27,2015,http://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-and-
europe/2015/12/27/russian-airbase-belarus-remains-limbo/.
140YurasKarmanau(AssociatedPress),BelarusPresidentSaysHeDoesntWantRussianAirBase,Voiceof
America,October6,2015,http://www.voanews.com/content/belarus-president-says-he-does-not-want-russian-air-
base/2993864.htmlChristopherHarress,ScaredbyUkraineWar,BelarusStrongmanLukashenkoMullsDitching
Russia,InternationalBusinessTimes,January31,2015,http://www.ibtimes.com/scared-ukraine-war-belarus-
strongman-lukashenko-mulls-ditching-russia-1801070MikalaiAnishchanka,IsBelarusandRussiasBrotherly
LoveComingtoanEnd?Guardian,May29,2015,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/28/belarus-
russia-brotherly-love-ukraine-crisis.
141KitGillet,OppositionGroupsinMoldovaUnitetoProtestNewGovernment,NewYorkTimes,January25,
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government.html.
144JeffreyMankoff,WhyRussiaandTurkeyFight:AHistoryofAntagonism,ForeignAffairs,February24,2016,
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/turkey/2016-02-24/why-russia-and-turkey-fight.
http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2015/09/turkey-russia-putin-not-supports-erdogan-in-syria.htmlNews
ConferenceFollowingStateVisittoTurkey,OfficialInternetResourcesofthePresidentofRussia,December1,
2014,http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/47126.
148Mankoff,WhyRussiaandTurkeyFightTurkeysDowningofRussianWarplaneWhatWeKnow,BBC,
December1,2015,http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34912581.
149AndreyBiryukov,PutinSaysTurkishStabinBackCausedRussianWarplaneCrash,Bloomberg,November
24,2015,http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-11-24/putin-says-turkish-stab-in-back-caused-russian-
warplane-crash.
150RaziyeAkkocandRolandOliphant,VladimirPutinRefusestoSpeaktoTurkishPresidentOverAnkarasLackof
Apology,Telegraph,November27,2015,
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/turkey/12020980/Vladimir-Putin-refuses-to-speak-to-Turkish-
president-over-Ankaras-lack-of-apology.html.
151WorstinDecades,NoWaytoImproveforNowKremlinonRussia-TurkeyRelations,RT,February9,2016,
http://www.rt.com/news/331878-russia-turkey-relations-worst/.
http://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Azerbaijans-Economy-In-Dire-Straits-As-Oil-Prices-Keep-
Tanking.html.
153JackFarchy,BakuSeeksAlternativesasAzerbaijanOilProductionDeclines,FinancialTimes,March12,
2015,http://next.ft.com/content/b86cb5b4-be99-11e4-8036-00144feab7deAzerbaijancountryreport,U.S.Energy
InformationAdministration,http://www.eia.gov/beta/international/analysis.cfm?iso=AZE.
Guardian,January15,2016,http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/15/azerbaijan-forced-to-cut-bread-taxes-
after-widespread-protests.
156Formoreonthis,seeEugeneRumer,RichardSokolsky,andPaulStronski,U.S.PolicyTowardCentralAsia
3.0,CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeace,January25,2016.http://carnegieendowment.org/2016/01/25/u.s.-
policy-toward-central-asia-3.0/it2s.
157Ibid.
Defense,September28,2015,http://breakingdefense.com/2015/09/russians-in-syria-building-a2ad-bubble-over-
region-breedlove/StevenPifer,RussianNukesinCrimea?ABetterWaytoRespond,BrookingsInstitution,
February2,2015,http://www.brookings.edu/research/opinions/2015/02/02-russia-nuclear-weapons-crimea-better-
us-response-piferStevenErlanger,NATORatchetsUpMissileDefenseDespiteRussianCriticism,NewYork
Times,May5,2016,http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/world/europe/nato-russia-poland.html.
From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 07/06/201612:24:51PM
Subject: EurasiaDailyMonitor--Volume13,Issue121
Viewthisemailinyourbrowser
July6,2016--Volume13,Issue121
INTHISISSUE
*Moscow,WashingtonconsidernextstepsonUkraine
*whileObamaadministrationlookstocementitslegacywithaUkrainedeal
*Russiadismisses50officersandtopcommandersofBalticSeaFleet
*Karachaevo-CherkessiangovernorsfatemayhingeonUnitedRussiaselectoralfortunes

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)

(PartOne)

USAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandcompletedanotherroundofshuttle
diplomacyinKyivandMoscow(June2224),followinguponhervisitstothetwocapitalsin
AprilandMay,ondirectinstructionsfromtheWhiteHouse.Thiseffortwillundoubtedly
continueafterthetimeoutnecessitatedbytheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizations(NATO)
summitinWarsaw(July89).

ForWashington,theambitionistoworkoutwithMoscowthebasicpremisesofapolitical
compromisebetweentheUkrainiangovernmentandthedefactoauthoritiesinDonetskand
Luhansk:ineffect,freezingthiscrisisbyUS-Russiaconsensus,perhapswithsomejoint
documenttoshow.Sucharesult,ifachieved,mightcreatethesemblanceofUS-Russia
cooperationonthisandothercrisisfronts,book-endingBarackObamaspresidencywitha
secondresetacounterparttotheoriginalObamaHillaryClintonresetofrelationswith
Russia.TheUnitedStates,however,isnegotiatingundertimepressure,seekingresultsbefore
theNovemberpresidentialelection.

AtleastsomeKremlinconsultantsrecommendaninterimdealwhilethelame-duckObama
administrationisstillinoffice.Thus,accordingtoDmitrySuslov(TheValdaiPapers,no.49,
June2016),anynewUSpresidentwilllikelyadoptamoreideologicallybased,more
aggressive,strongerattitudetowardRussia,atleastrhetorically,thantheObama
administrationhas.Moreover,iftheMinskagreementsarenotimplementedbythattime,
WashingtonwillfinditdifficulttoresistcallsforsupplyingKyivwithlethalweapons.
Consequently,MoscowshouldcooperateinpartiallyimplementingtheMinskagreements
[]soastoshowsomemovementintheconflict-settlementprocess,reducingtheriskofits
derailmentwiththearrivalofanewUSadministration.But,inparallel,Moscowshouldwork
withEuropeangovernmentstogenerateseriouspressuresonKyivandWashingtontofulfill
thosepointsoftheMinskagreementthatapplytoUkraine,partiallyimplementingMinskand
partiallyliftingtheEuropeanUnionssanctionsbytheendofthisyear,Suslovargues.
Atthisstage,MoscowsminimalrequirementsarethatUkraineadoptaconstitutional
amendmentonthespecialstatusoftheRussian-controlledterritory,anamnestyofthecrimes
ofRussiasarmedproxies,andaspeciallawonelectionsinthatterritory,allinapackagewith
localelectionstobeheldthere.ThatwouldamounttothefirststageinUkrainesfulfillingits
obligationsundertheMinskagreements.Thiswouldpavethewayforthenextstageof
Moscowsagenda,withdirectnegotiationsbetweenKyivandDonetsk-Luhanskontheterms
ofthelattersquasi-sovereignty.
BeyondtheMinsktextitselfasDmitrySimes,thepresidentoftheUSCenterforthe
NationalInterestandacrediblecommunicatorofKremlinperspectivesinWashington,
suggestsMoscowclearlywantstointerprettheMinskagreementsinawaythatnotonly
providestheDonbas[Donetsk-Luhanskpeoplesrepublics]withmeaningfulautonomy,but
alsoallowsregionalgovernmentsineasternUkrainetopreventthecountryfromjoining
NATODoesAmericaevenintendtopermitUkrainetojoinNATO?Ifnot,whycreatethe
impressioninRussiathatthismaybeWashingtonslong-termobjective?(TheNational
Interest,June26).
Atthepresentstage,however,Russiasshort-termobjectives(seeabove)necessitate
acceleratingthepoliticalnegotiationsintheNormandyformatandtheMinskContactGroup.
AsPresidentVladimirPutintoldtheconferenceofRussiasambassadorsaccreditedabroad,
justheldinMoscow,good-neighborlyrelationsbetweenRussiaandUkrainenecessitate
thatKyivatlonglastcomprehendtheinevitabilityofadirectdialoguewithDonetskand
Luhansk,infulfillmentofitsMinskobligations(Interfax,June30).
TopressureUkraineintothatkindofpoliticalprocess,Russiaisresortingtoattritionwarfare
throughitsproxiesinDonetsk-Luhansk.Thistactic,however,turnsRussiaintoasystematic
violatoroftheceasefire,thusblockingthepoliticalprocessthatMoscowitselfaimsto
accelerate.Ukraineiscitingthoseceasefirebreachesasprecludinganypoliticalnegotiations
withRussiasproxies.TosomeWesterndiplomats,however,thefightinganditspossible
escalationbyRussiaareargumentsfordefusingthesituationatthecostofpiecemeal
concessionsbyUkraine.Thus,Ukraineisbeingaskedtostartimplementingthepolitical
clausesofMinsk(seeabove)ifRussiarespectstheceasefirefortwomonthscontinuously,as
atestofgoodfaith.Thatwouldsupposedlyfulfillthemainprerequisitetothestartofthe
politicalprocesstowardlegitimizingtheDonetsk-Luhanskauthorities.
Outsidethelegal-politicalframeworkwereittobenegotiatedandagreedtheDonetsk
andLuhanskproto-states,withtheirRussian-ledmilitaryforces,wouldundoubtedlycontinue
toexistdefacto.TheMinskarmisticewhosefullimplementationallsidestheoretically
seekallowsthosetwoMoscow-supportedstateletstoexistastheyare,withorwithout
Ukrainesconsent.ThearmisticeestablishescertainproceduresforKyivtoconsent,butit
alsogivesDonetskandLuhanskthelatitudetoretainanddeveloptheirexistingstructuresde
factowithoutUkrainesconsent.
TheKremlincanbeexpectedtoofferapartial,interimdealthatwouldcompromiseUkraines
positioninallfuturenegotiationse.g.,KyivlegalizingDonetsk-LuhanskasRussian
protectoratesinexchangeforalastingceasefireandapoliticalfreezeontheunresolved
conflict.MoscowmaywellconsiderthetimingofsuchaproposalinrelationtotheUS
presidentialcampaign.

--VladimirSocor
(PartTwo)
PresidentBarackObamasadministrationseemstopursuetwocontradictorygoals:support
Ukrainessovereigntyandsecurityingeneraltermsbut,atthesametime,seekashort-term
compromisethatmightsatisfyRussiainUkraineseast.Preoccupiedwithlegacyissuesin
foreignpolicyasObamassecondandfinaltermcomestoaclose,administrationofficials
apparentlyaimtoshowsomeresultsintheircrisis-managementeffortsUkraineseastbeing
aneasiercasethanSyria,forexamplebeforeNovemberspresidentialelection.The
administrationhasswitchedfromtherhetoricofisolatingMoscowtodirectengagementwith
theKremlinonUkraine.
USAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandhasresumedtheshuttlediplomacyinKyiv
andMoscow(June2224).AlthoughtheUnitedStatesgovernmenthaddeclinedto
participateinnegotiatingtheMinskarmistice,andneverjoinedthefollow-upMinskprocess
directly,itnowaimsforaquickagreementbilaterallywithRussiaonthebasislaiddownin
Minsk.
AccordingtotheUSPresidentsnationalsecurityadvisor,SusanRice,asignificantstart
towardimplementingMinskissomethingthatcouldgetdonebetweennowandtheendof
theadministration,iftheRussiansinparticularexhibitsufficientpoliticalwillWearehopeful,
iftheRussianswanttoresolvethisandwehavesomereasontobelievetheymight.Rice,
whowasspeakingata WashingtonPostevent,acknowledgedatthesametimethatthe
UkrainianparliamentmightnotadoptthelegislativepackagerequiredofUkrainebythe
Minskarmistice(UNIAN,June10).Thatlegislation(seebelow)iswhattheObama
administrationseeksyetagaintogetdoneinKyiv,providedthatMoscowstopsbreaching
theceasefire.Washingtonspreviousattemptstoensurethelegislationispassed(e.g.,inMay
andAugust2015),however,backfiredpoliticallyinKyivandwentunrewardedbyMoscow.
TheUSambassador-designatetoUkraine,MarieYovanovitch,hasoutlinedthecurrentpolicy
inherSenateconfirmationhearing:TheUnitedStatesworksforfullimplementationofthe
Minskagreement,untilwhichtimesanctionsonRussiawillcontinue.Sheadded,A
sustainedimprovementinsecurity[alongthemilitarydemarcationlines]willallowUkraineto
passaDonbas[DPR-LPR]electionlaw,holdlocalelectionsinportionsofeasternUkraine,
andimplementspecialstatusandamnesty.Thesestepsshould[sic]leadtoRussias
withdrawalfromUkraineandrestorationofUkrainescontroloveritssideoftheinternational
border[withRussia](Ukraine.usembassy.gov,June21).
Thetermshould,noncommittalandhortatory,basicallyaspirational,isalsorevealinginthis
context.Indeed,theMinskarmisticedoesnotrequireRussiatowithdrawitsforcesfrom
UkrainesterritoryitdoesnotevenmentionRussiainthatcontext.NordoesMinskstipulate
therestorationofUkrainescontroloveritssideofthe400kilometersectionoftheUkraine-
Russiaborder,nowcontrolledbyRussianandproxyforces.Thearmisticeonlystipulatesthat
KyivcannegotiatewithDonetsk-Luhanskaboutsharingcontrolofthatborder,andonlyafter
KyivlegalizesRussiasproxyauthoritiesthere.ThearmisticeallowsDonetsk-Luhanskto
maintaintheirarmedforces(dubbedirregularonpaper,butRussian-ledandamply
equippedwitharmorandartillery)aspartofawould-bespecialstatusoftheseenclaves
(UNIAN,Osce,org,February12,2015).
ThisarmisticedemandsUkrainianconcessionstoDonetskandLuhanskintheconstitutional
andlegalfield,withoutRussianreciprocationinthemilitaryandsecurityfield.Nosuch
tradeoffexistsinthisarmistice.Instead,itcastsRussiaasarbiterofaninner-Ukrainian
conflict,inlinewithRussiasdefinitionsofitsroleandofthatconflict.Ukrainesconcessions,if
made,wouldbegratis.MoscowsdemandsforlegalandconstitutionalchangesinUkraineare
actuallyinfullconformitywiththetextoftheMinskarmistice(UNIAN,Osce.org,February
12,2015).
TheUnitedStateshadnohandinthatarmisticeandhasdeclinedtojoinanynegotiations
format,suchastheNormandyquartet(Germany,France,UkraineandRussia),chargedwith
implementingtheMinskarmistice.NeverthelesstheUShelpedenshrinetheMinskdocument
promptlyinaUnitedNationsSecurityCouncilresolution(see EDM,February23,2015),
whichMoscowisfondofcontinuallyreferencingashavingtheforceofinternationallaw.
Thosearmisticestipulationsanditsloopholes,allinRussiasfavor,areworthrecallingwhen
USorEuropeanofficialscallfortheimplementationofthatdocument.Forexample,State
DepartmentspokesmanJohnKirby,introducingNulandslatestmission,declared,witha
senseofurgency:Aswevesaidmanytimes,wewanttoseeMinskfullyimplemented,as
soonaspossible.ItwillbegoodforpeaceandsecurityinUkraine,goodforrelations
betweenRussiaandUkraine,goodforrelationsbetweentheUSandouralliesandRussia
(State.gov,June22).Similarly,theUSambassadorinMoscow,JohnTefft,referencing
PresidentObamasinstructions,explainedthatthesituationinUS-Russiarelationswould
significantlychangeiftheMinskdocumentsimplementationproceedsbeforetheUS
presidentialelection(Interfax,June20,27).
Suchstatementsevinceagrowingsenseofurgencytodealwiththisproblemunderthetime
constraintsoftheUSpresidentialelectioncalendar.Theyalsoshowarethinkingoftheoverall
policytowardRussia,viewingthesituationinUkraineseastincreasinglythroughtheprismof
US-Russiarelations.AsimilarshiftisproceedingevenfasterinEurope.TheWestscollective
setbacksonmultipleinternationalfrontsgeneratetheperceptionthatRussiacanhelpmitigate
thosecrises,evenasRussiainfactexploitsandexacerbatesthoseconflicts.
--VladimirSocor
TheRussianBalticSeaFleetANestofCrime?
RussianMinisterofDefenseSergeiShoigusackedthecommanderoftheBalticSeaFleet
(basedoutofBaltiysk,Kaliningradoblast),ViceAdmiralViktorKravchuk,andhischiefof
staff,ViceAdmiralSergeyPopov,onJune29(Vesti.ru,June29).Dayslater,newsemerged
thatanumberofotherBalticFleetofficersabout50accordingtoRussianmediahavealso
beendismissedandforcedtoleavetheArmedForcesorweretransferredtootherfleetsand
demoted(Flot.com,July1).Thereasonsfortheseharshmeasuressurgerywithout
anesthesiaasRussianmediasourcescharacterizeditwereseriousdeficienciesinthe
organizationoftrainingandtheday-to-dayactivitiesoftheunits,nottakingallnecessary
measurestoimprovethelivingconditionsofthepersonnel,alackofconcernforsubordinates,
aswellasdistortionsinthereportsoftheactualstateofaffairs(RIANovosti,June29).
Thesepublicsackingswereunprecedented:inthepast,instancesofhigh-rankingofficers
forcedoutoftheirpositionsweregenerallyexplainedawaybyageorbadhealth.
Followingthedismissals,ViceAdmiralAleksanderNosatovhastemporarilybeenappointed
commanderoftheBalticFleetandtaskedwithputtingthingsinorder,whileViceAdmiralIgor
Mukhametshinwill,fornow,actastheFleetschiefofstaff(Mil.ru,July1).Withinsixmonths,
anewinspectionwilltakeplacebutitremainsanopenquestionastowhether,bythen,the
BalticFleetwillhaverisenfromtheasheslikeaPhoenix.
ViceAdmiralKravchukservedassecondincommandwithintheBalticFleetsince2009and,
from2012,asitscommander.Apparently,duringhistenure,thecircumstancessurrounding
theFleetwentfrombadtoworse(Lenta.ru,June30 Fontanka.ru,June29).Kravchukis
reportedlyclosetotheformercommanderoftheRussianNavy,AdmiralViktorChirkov.His
othernotablefriendsandcloseassociatesincludetheso-calledamberbaron,Viktor
Bogdan,whohasallegedlysoldfuelstolenfromtheBalticSeaFleetandcontrolsthe
smugglingofamberfromKaliningradoblasttoPoland(Fontanka.ruJune29Radiopolsha.pl
July1).
MikhailNenashev,thechairmanoftheAll-RussianMovementforSupportoftheNavy,
believesthemassdismissalofBalticFleetofficersisanabsurdcoincidenceoramistake
(Fontanka.ruJune29).HetruststhatthenewheadoftheRussianNavy,AdmiralVladimir
Korolev,willlookintothematterandpresentanobjectiveassessmentofhowthingsstandin
theBalticFleet.Nenashevlikelydoesnothaveaccesstoallthefactsorissimplytryingto
protecthisown.Whatheseesasamistakewasapparentlyanythingbutindeed,the
dismissalofKravchukandtheothernavalofficersresulteddirectlyfromaMay11June10
inspectionoftheBalticSeaFleetbytheRussianGeneralStaff.Whatinitiatedthisinspectionis
unclear.ButmilitaryprosecutorsintheBalticFleethad,timeandagain,calledAdmiral
Kravchuksattentiontoanumberofirregularities.Andyet,noactionswereevertakenbythe
Fleetshighcommand,sosuchrequestsforaninvestigationmayhave,instead,been
redirectedathigherauthorities(Interfax,July1).Otherpossibilitiesthatcannotbeexcluded
arethatawhistleblowerwasinvolved,orperhapstheRussianministerofdefensehimself
sensedthatsomethingwaswrongduringhisvisittoKaliningradoblastlastMarch.Onesource
claimsthatapurportedcollisionbetweenaRussianmilitarysubmarineandaPolishnaval
vesselinMarchanincidenttheBalticFleetcommandhastriedtohideordownplay
triggeredtherecentmonth-longinspection(Fontanka.ruJune29).
TojudgefromtheoutstandingproblemsreportedlyplaguingtheBalticFleet,thereisreasonto
assumethattheofficiallydeclaredmotivesfortheshakeupsintheFleetshighcommand
correspondwithreality.Specifically(Fontanka.ru,June29 Lenta.ru,June30 Ruwest.ru,
June27):
Seventy-threefamiliesofofficersintheBalticFleetarelivinginbuildingsindangerof
collapsing.Andthesestructuresadditionallylackwarmwaterandtoiletfacilities.
AftertheJuly2015tragedyinOmsk,whereafour-storyarmybarrackscollapsed,
killing23servicemen,allRussianmilitarybuildingswereinspected.Nobuildings
sufferingfromsimilarstructuralproblemswerereportedlyfoundintheBalticFleet,but
infactthepersonnelweretoldtokeepquietabouttherealsituation.
Accidents,includingfires,haveperiodicallyoccurredaboardBalticFleetships.
InAugust2015,amine-clearingexerciseintheBalticSeaendedwithabominable
resultsfortheparticipatingvessels.Yet,officialreportsstatedthatalltaskswere
completedsatisfactorily.
Theillegalextractionofamberwasfoundinconnectionwiththerebuildingofthe
ChkalovsknavalairbaseinKaliningradoblast.
Thelocaleconomyhasbeenseriouslymismanaged.
Thedismissalofmorethantwodozenhigh-rankingofficersinresponsetotheBalticSea
FleetsshortcomingsshouldbeseeninlightofhowMoscowperceivesincreasedactivityin
theBalticregionbytheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization(NATO).Russiaisfocusingonits
westernstrategicdirectionandasDefenseMinisterShoiguhasstated,strengtheningthe
countrysmilitarycapabilitiesinthatdirectionisanappropriateanswertoNATO
(Tvzvezda.ru,June30).Inthiscontext,theBalticFleetandKaliningradoblastasawholeplay
acrucialrole.Assuch,fromamilitarypointofview,theareaisbeinggivenhighprioritybutin
comparisonwiththeArcticandCrimea,notmuchhadbeentangiblyachievedinKaliningrad
sofar.ItremainstobeseenwhethertherecentdrasticshakeupintheBalticFleetscommand
willhaveanegativeimpactintheshortterm.Butalmostcertainly,themilitaryunitsstationedin
theBalticSearegionwillnowbereceivingmuchgreaterinterestfromMoscowforalongtime
tocome.
--JrgenElfving
Karachaevo-CherkessiasGovernorFacesToughChallengeinUpcomingElection
Period
WithRussiasSeptember2016parliamentaryelectionsfastapproaching,thepoliticalelitesin
theNorthCaucasusarebecomingincreasinglynervous.Thecountrycontinuestobe
embroiledinaneconomiccrisis,whichisforcingachangeintherelationsbetweenMoscow
andregionalgovernors,whiletheoverallpoliticalsituationbecomesevermorefluid.Although
theRussiangovernmentwilllikelytrytorigthevote,asusual,nationalelectionsarestillseen
asalegitimizationritualfortherulingUnitedRussiaparty.Hence,governorswhodonot
deliverasufficientlylargenumberofvotesforUnitedRussiacouldfaceseriousrepercussions.
ThegovernorofKarachaevo-Cherkessia,RashidTemrezov,isoneoftheNorthCaucasus
governorsmostatrisk.HispositionisprecariousbecauseUnitedRussiafacesformidable
oppositioninKarachaevo-Cherkessia,andTemrezovhasmanagedtomakemanypowerful
enemiesintherepublic.PresidentVladimirPutinconfirmedTemrezovsstatusas
Karachaevo-CherkessiasactinggovernorjustdaysbeforeTemrezovsfirsttermasgovernor
wassettoexpireonMarch1.KeepingKarachaevo-Cherkessiaselitesinsuspenseindicated
thattheKremlinwasconsideringothercandidatesforgovernor.Thefactthatelectionstothe
regionalparliamentandtheRussianStateDumawillbeheldsimultaneouslyinSeptember
providedMoscowwiththepretexttoremovethoseNorthCaucasusgovernorswhofailto
electasufficientnumberofUnitedRussiadeputies,accordingtolocalobservers.Aspartof
itsstrategytoensureUnitedRussiawinsintheNorthCaucasus,Moscowappointedregional
governorsasinterimleadersofUnitedRussia,whorunforparliamentascandidatesonparty
lists.However,oncetheelectionsareover,thegovernorssimplyrefusetotaketheir
parliamentaryseatandalowerrankingUnitedRussia apparatchik(loyalbureaucratic
functionary)isdelegatedinstead.Sincegovernorsarewellknownintherepublicsandhave
de-factocontrolofthelocalelectoralcommissions,therulingpartyinvariablywinselections
therebyalargemargin(Onkavkaz.com,June28).
Thistried-and-truescheme,however,doesnotalwayswork.Itisespeciallylikelytofailin
suchamultiethnicandpoliticallydividedrepublicasKarachaevo-Cherkessia.Turkic-speaking
Karachays,forexample,compriseapluralityintherepublicandcontrolmuchofthe
governmentapparatus.However,theCherkess(Circassians)andtheAbazaalsohavestrong
andwell-organizedstructures,eventhoughtheyareintheminority.Moreover,severalgroups
inKarachaevo-Cherkessiahavetheirownautonomousstatuswithintherepublic,which
makesiteasierforthemtoorganizeforpoliticalaction.Apartfromthedisgruntledminorities,
theKarachaysthemselvesalsoappeartobequitedividedoverTemrezovsleadership.
Karachaevo-Cherkessiahasafewpoliticallystrongcivilsocietyorganizationsthatare
normallyarrangedalongethniclines.Toshieldthemselvesfromcriticism,republicanofficials
organizedtheirownparallelcivilorganizationsthatdothegovernmentsbidding.For
example,therearetwomaincivilsocietyorganizationsofethnicKarachaysanindependent
CongressoftheKarachayPeopleandagovernment-sponsoredorganizationcalledKarachay
AlanKhalk.Thedeputyspeakeroftherepublicanparliament,RuslanKhabov,alsoleads
KarachayAlanKhalk.KarachayswereamongtheethnicgroupsoftheformerSovietUnion
thatweredeportedtoKazakhstanenmassebyJosephStalinforallegedcollaborationwith
theGermansduringtheSecondWorldWar.Now,Karachayactivistssaythatthegovernment
hasfailedtorehabilitatethemfully.Karachayvillageslackbasicfacilitiesandjoblessnessis
rampant.Karachaevo-CherkessiaistheonlyNorthCaucasianrepublicthathasnodirect
connectiontoMoscoweitherviaanairlinkorbyrailway.Peoplecryandareontheir
knees,saidAzimSalpagarov,theeditoroftheregionalnewspaperKubanskieVesti.Many
bureaucratsareinvolvedinbusinessactivitiesandworkforthemselves.Thosepeoplesimply
makemoney,andtheydonotcarethatordinarypeopleintherepublicfaceenormous
problemsduetothepricehikesandcreditdebts(Yug.svpressa.ru,June24).
TemrezovwasconnectedtoMustafaBatdyev,whowasKarachaevo-Cherkessiaspresident
from2003to2008.Afterascandalinvolvingthegruesomemurderofagroupofbusinessmen
byBatdyevsson-in-law,AliKaitov,andanensuinguprisingintherepublic,Batdyevwas
removedfromoffice.TemrezovunexpectedlycametopowerinKarachaevo-Cherkessiain
2011,aftertheprematureresignationofthepreviousgovernoroftherepublic,BorisEbzeyev.
AfterTemrezovcametopower,however,heandBatdyevreportedlyhadafallingout
(Onkavkaz.com,June18,2015).
Morerecently,TemrezovhasfacedoppositionfromAliyTotorkulov,apopularand
charismaticpoliticalfigurewhoattemptedtoparticipateinUnitedRussiasprimaryelections,
butwassidelined.TotorkulovpromisedtofighthiswaytotheRussianStateDumaas
Karachaevo-CherkessiasrepresentativedespiteTemrezovsopposition.However,
TotorkulovwasappointeddeputychairmanoftheCouncilforNationalitiesinMoscow
(Kuban.kp.ru,June27).Thegesturewasapparentlymeanttoappeasetheambitious
independentKarachaevo-Cherkessianpoliticianandhelprepublicanauthorities.
DespiteTotorkulovsretreat,thereareotherfiguresandforcesinKarachaevo-Cherkessia
thatcanstillchallengeTemrezovsrulebyvotingagainsttheUnitedRussiaparty.Finally,the
economichurdlesthattheregionisfacingcouldeasilyupendthesituationintherepublic,
whichhaspersistentlylackedeithergovernmentorprivateinvestmentinrecentdecades.
--ValeryDzutsati
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AzerbaijanandtheNewEnergyGeopoliticsofSoutheasternEurope
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Topurchaseacopy,pleaseclickhere.
InConflictZones,JanuszBugajskienhancesourunderstandingofthe
causesandconsequencesofthecurrentconflictsintheNorth
Caucasusandextrapolateslikelyscenariosintheregionsdevelopment.
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structurethatcouldnotcontaininternallygeneratedpoliticalandethnic
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To: BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>







equipment.


close.
approach.
FuelingtheDragon
Gas
Oil
opportunity.47
Schlumberger.
Westernsanctions.
AnyMarketforaBear?
sanctionsregime.
Ukrainiancitizens.
TechnologicalLinks
ComradesinArms
commercialsense.
resources.
economies.
infrastructure.
toChinaasaresult.
andbids.
Notes
2015):1318.
gas/ijra.
2005,
52Ibid.
64Ibid.
project.
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 06/25/201610:43:24AM
To: RobertOtto<ottorc@state.gov>
Subject: GlobalBeat:FormerPolicy-MakersVoiceConcernOverNATOExpansion
GlobalBeat:FormerPolicy-MakersVoiceConcernOverNATOExpansion
FormerPolicy-MakersVoiceConcernOverNATOExpansion
June26,1997
InanopenlettertoPresidentClintonreleasedtodaymorethanfortyformersenators,cabinetsecretariesand
ambassadors,aswellasarmscontrolandforeignpolicyanalysts,havecalledforapostponementofNATOexpansion
whileotheroptionsforEuropeansecurityareexplored.Thegrouprecommendsmakingitaprioritytoopenthedoorsof
theEuropeanUniontoCentralandEasternEurope,enhancethePartnershipforPeaceprogram,andvigorouslycontinue
thearmsreductionprocess.
NATOexpansion,asitiscurrentlyenvisioned,risksunderminingtheallianceitselfandcouldrequirean"indeterminate,but
certainlyhigh,cost"thelettersays.AndcontinuedfailuretoarticulatethescopeofthefutureNATOcouldseriously
jeopardizetheabilityofthealliance"tocarryoutitsprimarymission."
Thesignersalsoexpressedconcernaboutdrawing"anewlineofdivisioninEurope,betweenthe'ins'andthe'outs'ofa
newNATO,"whichcould"fosterinstability,andultimatelydiminishthesecurityofthosecountrieswhicharenotincluded."
"Wehopethatourletterwillencouragethepublicandourelectedofficialstoasksomehardquestions,andgetthe
answerstheyneed,beforetheratificationprocessissetinmotion,"saidSusanEisenhower,whoplayedakeyrolein
organizingtheeffort."AnenhanceddebateontheimplicationsofenlargingNATOiscrucialatatimewhenweare
contemplatinggreatercommitmentswhilefundingresourcesfordefenseandnationalsecurityarediminishing."
Theletter,organizedbyagroupofindividualsinvolvedinforeignpolicyanalysis,reflectsonlyafractionofthosewho
opposetheadministration'scurrentapproach."Thelistwasinnowayintendedtobeacomprehensiveattempttopollthe
Washingtonforeignpolicycommunity,"saidJackMendelsohn,whoalsohelpedtoorganizethelist."Rather,thelistis
representativeofadiversegroupofthoughtfulandknowledgeablepeoplewhohavedeepconcernsabouttheopen-
endednatureofthispolicy."
Thebipartisangroupconsistsofmanywell-knownandhighlyrespectedindividuals,includingformerDemocraticSenators
SamNunn(oneoftheSenate'sforemostdefenseexperts),GaryHart,andBennettJohnston,aswellasformerSenate
RepublicansMarkHatfieldandGordonHumphrey.TworecentambassadorstotheSovietUnion,JackF.Matlock,Jr.
andArthurHartmanalsosignedtheletter.
Othersignatoriesinclude:AmbassadorPaulNitze,PresidentReagan'schiefarmscontrolnegotiatorRobertMcNamara,
formerSecretaryofDefenseintheKennedyandJohnsonadministrations,AdmiralJamesWatkins,SecretaryofEnergy
duringtheBushyearsandPresidentCarter'sDirectoroftheCIA,AdmiralStansfieldTurner.FormerNATOAssistant
SecretaryGeneralPhilipMerrillisalsoamongthoselisted.Thesignatoriesalsoincludemanydistinguishedarmscontrol
negotiatorsandacademics,manyofwhom--liketheReaganadministration'sProfessorRichardPipesandCarter
administration'sProfessorMarshallShulman--alsoservedingovernment.
OPENLETTERTOPRESIDENTCLINTON
PLEASENOTE:Thismaterialisembargoeduntil9:30a.m.Thursday,June26
We,theundersigned,believethatthecurrentU.S.-ledefforttoexpandNATO,thefocusoftherecentHelsinkiandParis
Summits,isapolicyerrorofhistoricproportions.WebelievethatNATOexpansionwilldecreasealliedsecurityand
unsettleEuropeanstabilityforthefollowingreasons:
InRussia,NATOexpansion,whichcontinuestobeopposedacrosstheentirepoliticalspectrum,willstrengthenthenon-
democraticopposition,undercutthosewhofavorreformandcooperationwiththeWest,bringtheRussianstoquestion
theentirepost-ColdWarsettlement,andgalvanizeresistanceintheDumatotheSTARTIIandIIItreaties
InEurope,NATOexpansionwilldrawanewlineofdivisionbetweenthe"ins"andthe"outs,"fosterinstability,and
ultimatelydiminishthesenseofsecurityofthosecountrieswhicharenotincluded
InNATO,expansion,whichtheAlliancehasindicatedisopen-ended,willinevitablydegradeNATO'sabilitytocarryout
itsprimarymissionandwillinvolveU.S.securityguaranteestocountrieswithseriousborderandnationalminority
problems,andunevenlydevelopedsystemsofdemocraticgovernment
IntheU.S.,NATOexpansionwilltriggeranextendeddebateoveritsindeterminate,butcertainlyhigh,costandwillcall
intoquestiontheU.S.commitmenttotheAlliance,traditionallyandrightlyregardedasacenterpieceofU.S.foreign
policy.
Becauseoftheseseriousobjections,andintheabsenceofanyreasonforarapiddecision,westronglyurgethatthe
NATOexpansionprocessbesuspendedwhilealternativeactionsarepursued.Theseinclude:
openingtheeconomicandpoliticaldoorsoftheEuropeanUniontoCentralandEasternEurope
developinganenhancedPartnershipforPeaceprogram
supportingacooperativeNATO-Russianrelationshipand
continuingthearmsreductionandtransparencyprocess,particularlywithrespecttonuclearweaponsand
materials,themajorthreattoU.S.security,andwithrespecttoconventionalmilitaryforcesinEurope.
RussiadoesnotnowposeathreattoitswesternneighborsandthenationsofCentralandEasternEuropearenotin
danger.Forthisreason,andtheotherscitedabove,webelievethatNATOexpansionisneithernecessarynordesirable
andthatthisill-conceivedpolicycanandshouldbeputonhold.
LISTOFSIGNATORIES
AmbassadorGeorgeBunn
(IISConsultingProfessor,CenterforInternationalSecurityandArmsControl,Stanford,University)
TheHonorableRobertBowie
(FormerDirector,PolicyPlanningStaff,andCounselor,DepartmentofStateformerDeputyDirectorforIntelligence,
C.I.A.)
SenatorBillBradley
(U.S.Senator(1979-1996))
ProfessorDavidCalleo
(DirectorofEuropeanStudies,NitzeSchoolofAdvancedInternationalStudies,JohnsHopkinsUniversity)
AmbassadorRichardT.Davies
(FormerAmbassadortoPoland(1973-1978)PoliticalOfficer,NATOInternationalStaffDeputyAssistantSecretaryof
StateforEuropeanAffairs)
AmbassadorJonathanDean
(FormerAmbassadorheadingU.S.DelegationtoNATOWarsawPactNegotiationsonMutualandBalancedForce
ReductionsDeputyU.S.Negotiator,FourPowerAgreementonBerlinAdviserforInternationalSecurityIssues,Union
ofConcernedScientists)
ProfessorPaulDoty
(EmeritusDirector,CenterforScienceandInternationalAffairs,JohnF.KennedySchoolofGovernment,Harvard
University)
SusanEisenhower
(Chairman,CenterforPoliticalandStrategicStudies)
DavidM.Evans
(FormerSeniorAdvisertoHelsinkiCommission(1990-1995)President,IntegratedStrategiesInternational)
AmbassadorDavidFischer
(President,WorldAffairsCouncilofNorthernCalifornia)
AmbassadorRaymondGarthoff
(FormerAmbassadortoBulgaria(1977-1979)SeniorFellow,BrookingsInstitution)
Dr.MortonH.Halperin
(FormerNationalSecurityCouncilandDepartmentofDefenseOfficial)
OwenHarries
(Editor,TheNationalInterest)
SenatorGaryHart
(U.S.Senator(1975-1987))
AmbassadorArthurHartman
(FormerAmbassadortoTheSovietUnion(1981-1987))
SenatorMarkHatfield
(U.S.Senator(1967-1987))
ProfessorJohnP.Holdren
(Chairman,NationalAcademyofSciencesCommitteeonInternationalSecurityandArmsControlProfessor,Harvard
University)
TheHonorableTownsendHoopes
(FormerUndersecretaryoftheU.S.AirForce)
SenatorGordonHumphrey
(U.S.Senator(1979-1991))
TheHonorableFredIkle
(FormerUndersecretaryofDefenseforPolicy(1981-1988))
SenatorBennettJohnston
(U.S.Senator(1972-1996))
ProfessorCarlKaysen
(ProfessorofPoliticalEconomy,HarvardUniversity)
TheHonorableSpurgeonKeeny
(FormerDeputyDirectorArmsControlandDisarmamentAgencySeniorStaffMember,NationalSecurityCouncil
President,ArmsControlAssociation)
AmbassadorJamesLeonard
(FormerAssistantDirector,ArmsControlandDisarmamentAgencyformerDeputyPermanentRepresentativetothe
UnitedNations)
Dr.EdwardLuttwak
(SeniorFellow,CenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies)
ProfessorMichaelMandelbaum
(Professor,NitzeSchoolofAdvancedInternationalStudies,JohnsHopkinsUniversity)
AmbassadorJackMatlock
(FormerAmbassadortotheSovietUnion(1987-1991))
TheHonorableC.WilliamMaynes
(FormerEditor,ForeignPolicyFormerAssistantSecretaryofStateforInternationalOrganizationsAffairs(1977-1980))

AmbassadorRichardMcCormack
(FormerUndersecretaryofStateforEconomicAffairs(1989-1991))
TheHonorableDavidMcGiffert
(AssistantSecretaryforInternationalSecurityAffairs(1977-1981))
TheHonorableRobertS.McNamara
(SecretaryofDefense(1961-1968)PresidentoftheWorldBank(1968-1991))
JackMendelsohn
(FormerSeniorForeignServiceOfficerDeputyDirector,ArmsControlAssociation)
PhilipMerrill
(FormerNATOAssistantSecretaryGeneral)
AmbassadorPaulH.Nitze
(FormerSpecialAdvisertoPresidentReaganandSecretaryofStateShultzforArmsControlformerDeputySecretary
ofDefenseformerSecretaryoftheNavy)
SenatorSamNunn
(U.S.Senator(1972-1996))
AmbassadorHerbertS.Okun
(AmbassadortoEastGermany(1980-1983)AmbassadortotheUnitedNations(1985-1989))
ProfessorW.K.H.Panofsky
(EmeritusProfessor,StanfordUniversity)
MajorGeneralChristianPatte(ret.)
(FormerDirectorofNATOLogisitics(1990-1996))
ProfessorRichardPipes
(Director,EastEuropeanandSovietAffairsforNationalSecurityCouncil)
Lt.GeneralRobertE.Pursley(ret.)
(LieutenantGeneral,U.S.AirForce)
ProfessorGeorgeRathjens
(Professor,MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology)
TheHonorableStanleyResor
(FormerSecretaryoftheArmyAmbassadortotheMutualBalancedForceReductionNegotiation)
TheHonorableJohnB.Rhinelander
(FormerLegalAdvisertoU.S.SALTIDelegationDeputyLegalAdviser,DepartmentofState)
ViceAdmiralJohnJ.Shanahan(ret.)
(FormerMilitaryAdvisortotheU.S.AmbassadortoNATODirector,CenterforDefenseInformation)
TheHonorableMarshallShulman
(ProfessorEmeritus,ColumbiaUniversity)
Dr.JohnSteinbruner
(SeniorFellowandformerDirector,ForeignPolicyStudies,BrookingsInstitution)
AdmiralStansfieldTurner(ret.)
(FormerDirectoroftheC.I.A.)
AmbassadorRichardViets
(FormerAmbassadortoTanzaniaandJordan)
TheHonorablePaulWarnke
(FormerDirector,ArmsControlandDisarmamentAgencyAssistantSecretaryofDefenseforInternationalSecurity
Affairs)
AdmiralJamesD.Watkins(ret.)
(FormerSecretaryofEnergyformerChiefofNavalOperations)
FORMOREINFORMATIONCALL:KRISTINNEWMEYER,CenterforPoliticalandStrategicStudies,301-652-
8181
TheCenterforPoliticalandStrategicStudies
2WisconsinCircle,Suite410
ChevyChase,MD20815USA
T:301-652-8181,F:301-652-8451
http://www.cpss.org
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SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 06/22/201601:12:23PM
To: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Cc: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Re:IsPutinseekingtokinockHillaryCLINTONoutofthepresidentialrace?"ClintonFoundationsaidtobeBREACHEDbyRussian
Subject:
HACKERS,"bloomberg.com,6/27
ThismorningsKommersantclaimedthefinalvotewasscheduledfor6/24,butittookplacetoday.
ThedocumentnowgoestotheFederationCouncil
OnJun22,2016,at12:55PM,JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>wrote:

From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:IsPutinseekingtokinockHillaryCLINTONoutofthepresidentialrace?"ClintonFoundationsaidtobeBREACHED
byRussianHACKERS,"bloomberg.com,6/27

TheClintonFoundationwasamongtheorganizationsbreachedbysuspectedRussian
hackersinadragnetoftheUSpoliticalapparatusaheadoftheNovemberelection,
accordingtothreepeoplefamiliarwiththematter.Theattacksofthefoundationsnetwork,
aswellasthoseoftheDemocraticPartyandHillaryClintonspresidentialcampaign,
compoundconcernsaboutherdigitalsecurityTheRepublicanPartyandtheTrump
campaignhavebeenmostlysilentonthecomputerattacks.

And:TheStateDumahasadoptedafinalversionoflawscreatingtheNATIONAL
GUARD:http://www.rosbalt.ru/russia/2016/0622/1525484.html[Avoteonthe
controversialArticle21isscheduledforJune24]

And:RussiaisPREPARINGFORWAR,KommersantcitesamajorJunereportby
CanadianIntelligence:kommersant.ru,6/21

And:FortheCanadianIntelligenceServiceReport,see2018SecurityOutlookPotential
RisksandThreats,www.csis.sers.gc.ca,June2016ChapterThreeisentitled:Russian
Futuresto2018.

And:[Victoria]NULANDarrivesinKyiv[today]todiscussMINSKACCORDS,unian.info,
6/22

And:USCommander[Lt.GeneralBenHodges]:NATOcouldntstopRussianattackon
BALTICS,http://rferl.org/articlprintview/27813839.html

And:PavelFELGENHAUER,WhatistheHomeland[i.e.,Russia]defendingitself
against?http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/273557.html?print=1

And:ThespecialoperationsoftheSILOVIKIoftheKremlinchef[EvgeniiPRIGOZHIN]
againstdisloyalPetersburgjournalistsandbloggers,Fontanka.ru,reposted
at:http://www.compromat.ru/page_37036.htm
And:WhatsgoingonatRussiasKGBSUCCESSOR?InterviewwithAndreiSOLDATOV
ofAgentua.ru,meduza.io,6/21[InEnglish]
And:PutinpraisesDumaforworktointegrateCRIMEA,themsocowtimes.com,6/22
Senttime: 06/22/201609:55:28AM
FW:IsPutinseekingtokinockHillaryCLINTONoutofthepresidentialrace?"ClintonFoundationsaidtobeBREACHEDbyRussian
Subject:
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:IsPutinseekingtokinockHillaryCLINTONoutofthepresidentialrace?"ClintonFoundationsaidtobeBREACHEDbyRussian
TheClintonFoundationwasamongtheorganizationsbreachedbysuspectedRussianhackersina
dragnetoftheUSpoliticalapparatusaheadoftheNovemberelection,accordingtothreepeople
familiarwiththematter.Theattacksofthefoundationsnetwork,aswellasthoseoftheDemocratic
PartyandHillaryClintonspresidentialcampaign,compoundconcernsaboutherdigitalsecurityThe
RepublicanPartyandtheTrumpcampaignhavebeenmostlysilentonthecomputerattacks.
And:TheStateDumahasadoptedafinalversionoflawscreatingtheNATIONALGUARD:
http://www.rosbalt.ru/russia/2016/0622/1525484.html[AvoteonthecontroversialArticle21is
scheduledforJune24]
And:RussiaisPREPARINGFORWAR,KommersantcitesamajorJunereportbyCanadian
Intelligence:kommersant.ru,6/21
And:FortheCanadianIntelligenceServiceReport,see2018SecurityOutlookPotentialRisksand
Threats,www.csis.sers.gc.ca,June2016ChapterThreeisentitled:RussianFuturesto2018.
And:[Victoria]NULANDarrivesinKyiv[today]todiscussMINSKACCORDS,unian.info,6/22
And:USCommander[Lt.GeneralBenHodges]:NATOcouldntstopRussianattackonBALTICS,
http://rferl.org/articlprintview/27813839.html
And:PavelFELGENHAUER,WhatistheHomeland[i.e.,Russia]defendingitselfagainst?
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/273557.html?print=1
And:ThespecialoperationsoftheSILOVIKIoftheKremlinchef[EvgeniiPRIGOZHIN]against
disloyalPetersburgjournalistsandbloggers,Fontanka.ru,repostedat:
http://www.compromat.ru/page_37036.htm
And:WhatsgoingonatRussiasKGBSUCCESSOR?InterviewwithAndreiSOLDATOVofAgentua.ru,
meduza.io,6/21[InEnglish]
And:PutinpraisesDumaforworktointegrateCRIMEA,themsocowtimes.com,6/22
From: Gottemoeller,RoseE<GottemoellerRE@state.gov>
Senttime: 06/20/201601:37:05PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>Handler,JoshuaM<HandlerJM@state.gov>
Cc: Otto,Robert<OttoRC@state.gov>
Subject: RE:MD,ABM,INF,PGS-Putin'sCommentsattheSt.PeteEconomicForumonFriday-TranscriptfromKremlinWebsite
Yes, I read both in Russian. Was interested in the lack of nuclear saber rattling and other threats, for
a change. Thoughtful commentaryif from Russian perspective. RG
From:Handler,JoshuaM
Sent:Monday,June20,20164:01PM
To:Gottemoeller,RoseE'Bob'
Cc:Otto,Robert
Subject:RE:MD,ABM,INF,PGS-Putin'sCommentsattheSt.PeteEconomicForumonFriday-TranscriptfromKremlinWebsite
Rose,YesinthesensetheyarefromtheKremlinwebsiteandseeminglyfollowtheRussiantranscript.WhethertheKremlins
translationgoteverynuanceoftheoriginalRussianIcantquitesay,butBobsenttheexcerptsfrombothpresentationsinhisearlier
e-mail.Seeattached.Thanks,
ThisemailisUNCLASSIFIED.
From:Gottemoeller,RoseE
To:Handler,JoshuaM'Bob'
Sorry, Josh, should have read on: are these complete translations? Thanks, R
Sent:Monday,June20,20169:58AM
To:Gottemoeller,RoseEAVCManagersPlusAVC-ESA-DLAVC-ESC-DLAVC-NRRC-StaffAVC-Press-DLAVC-SSD-DLBallas,Spiro
Bell,AlexandraFBoggs,PhillipWBorges,ManoelaGBurgess,JoshuaCCarhart,RobertNJrCope,AaronMDean,PaulBDodge,
SimonPDoell,CynthiaDolliff,PhillipRDonoho,GideonTEUR-PRA-AVCEUR-RPM-PMD-DLEUR-RUS-POL-DLFaithful,FrederickL
Fetter,SteveA.EOP/OSTPGelman,JeffreyDGodfrey,AnthonyFGoldstein,StephanieEGreaney,BrianEHalupka,NicholasA
Handler,JoshuaMHolmes,StephanieEHornbostel,CharlesPJensen,DanaEJonWolfsthalKavalec,KathleenAKile,JeffreyK
Lacey,EdwardLawson,KevinJMikulsky,AlexJ(Geneva)Nelson,RobertWOtto,RobertPark,RebeccaC.Parrish,ScottDPearce,
StacyL(London)Phelan,DonnaARoraff,BrianRRuss,LauraW(London)Rusten,LynnFSmilansky,GeneSolomon,HowardT
(Vilnius)Spykerman,JohnDTarar,Humza(Zed)Tefft,JohnFterHaar,MiaFTierney,JenniferMTratensek,AlexanderWright,
JaneyF
Subject:MD,ABM,INF,PGS-Putin'sCommentsattheSt.PeteEconomicForumonFriday-TranscriptfromKremlinWebsite
PutinmaderemarksaboutmissiledefenseandstrategicstabilityintwovenuesattheSt.Petersburg
InternationalEconomicFormthatmadeheadlinesovertheweekend.
AtthePlenarysessioninresponsetoFareedZakariasquestionherelatedthenegativeconsequencesof
theU.S.withdrawingfromtheABMTreaty.Laterinameetingwithmembersoftheinternationalpresshe
elaboratedfurther,mentioninghowtheyfeltdeceivedbyUSactions,andtalkedaboutthepotential
deploymentof1,000kmoffensivemissilesintheAegisashore(thoughdidntmentionINFbyname)and
USPGSprograms.Hiscommentsareworthacloseread.Somepressstoriesmergedthereportingon
thetwoevents.SeehighlightsandRFE/RLarticlebelow.
InthePlenarysessionhealsospokeabouttheU.S.beingtheonlysuperpower,andhisviewsontheU.S.
Presidentialcandidates.Tackedonthelatterattheendasitisrevealing.LinkstoEnglishlanguage
transcriptonKremlinsiteareprovidedasthewholepresentationisworthaskim.Anynumberoftopics
ontheinternationalagendaarecovered.
Thanks,
PlenarysessionofStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum
VladimirPutinspokeattheplenarysessionoftheStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum.
June17,201616:20StPetersburg
Plenarysessionmoderator,CNNhostFareedZakaria:Thankyoutoallthreeofyou:twopresidents,one
primeminister,thoughinItaly,youareallowedtosayPresidentRenzialso.Bytheformatwehave
agreedupon,whatIwilldoiswewillbeginthisdiscussionfirstwithourhostpresident,PresidentPutin,
andthenIwillwidenthatconversationtoincludePrimeMinisterRenziandPresidentNazarbayev.We
startedalittlebitlate,sowewillgoalittlebitlonger.
PresidentPutin,letmeaskyouaverysimplequestion.Since2014,youhavehadEuropeanUnion
sanctionsandUSsanctionsagainstRussia.NATOhasannouncedjustthisweekthatitisgoingtobuildup
forcesinstatesthatborderRussia.Russiahasannounceditsownbuildup.Arewesettlingintoalow-
grade,lower-levelcoldwarbetweentheWestandRussia?
VladimirPutin:IdonotwanttobelievethatwearemovingtowardsanotherColdWar,andIamsure
nobodywantsthis.Wecertainlydonot.Thereisnoneedforthis.Themainlogicbehindinternational
relationsdevelopmentisthatnomatterhowdramaticitmightseem,itisnotthelogicofglobal
confrontation.Whatistherootoftheproblem?
Iwilltellyou.Iwillhavetotakeyoubackintime.AfterthecollapseoftheSovietUnion,weexpected
overallprosperityandoveralltrust.Unfortunately,Russiahadtofacenumerouschallenges,speaking
inmodernterms:economic,socialanddomesticpolicy.Wecameupagainstseparatism,radicalism,
aggressionofinternationalterror,becauseundoubtedlywewerefightingagainstAlQaedamilitants
intheCaucasus,itisanobviousfact,andtherecanbenosecondthoughtsaboutit.Butinsteadofsupport
fromourpartnersinourstrugglewiththeseproblems,wesadlycameacrosssomethingdifferentsupport
fortheseparatists.Weweretold,Wedonotacceptyourseparatistsatthetoppoliticallevel,only
atthetechnological.
Verywell.Weappreciateit.Butwealsosawinformationsupport,financialsupportandadministrative
backup.
Later,afterwetackledthoseproblems,wentthroughserioushardships,wecametofaceanotherthing.
TheSovietUnionwasnomoretheWarsawPacthadceasedtoexist.Butforsomereason,NATO
continuestoexpanditsinfrastructuretowardsRussiasborders.Itstartedlongbeforeyesterday.
Montenegroisbecominga[NATO]member.WhoisthreateningMontenegro?Yousee,ourpositionis
beingtotallyignored.
Another,equallyimportant,orperhaps,themostimportantissueistheunilateralwithdrawal[oftheUS]
fromtheABMTreaty.TheABMTreatywasonceconcludedbetweentheSovietUnionandtheUnited
Statesforagoodreason.TworegionswereallowedtostayMoscowandthesiteofUSICBMsilos.
Thetreatywasdesignedtoprovideastrategicbalanceintheworld.However,theyunilaterallyquit
thetreaty,sayinginafriendlymanner,Thisisnotaimedagainstyou.Youwanttodevelopyouroffensive
arms,andweassumeitisnotaimedagainstus.
Youknowwhytheysaidso?Itissimple:nobodyexpectedRussiaintheearly2000s,whenitwas
strugglingwithitsdomesticproblems,tornapartbyinternalconflicts,politicalandeconomicproblems,
torturedbyterrorists,torestoreitsdefencesector.Clearly,nobodyexpectedustobeabletomaintainour
arsenals,letalonehavenewstrategicweapons.Theythoughttheywouldbuilduptheirmissiledefence
forcesunilaterallywhileourarsenalswouldbeshrinking.
AllofthiswasdoneunderthepretextofcombattingtheIraniannuclearthreat.Whathasbecome
oftheIraniannuclearthreatnow?Thereisnone,buttheprojectcontinues.Thisisthewayitis,step
bystep,oneafteranother,andsoon.
Thentheybegantosupportallkindsofcolourrevolutions,includingtheso-calledArabSpring.They
ferventlysupportedit.Howmanypositivetakesdidwehearonwhatwasgoingon?Whatdiditleadto?
Chaos.
Iamnotinterestedinlayingblamenow.Isimplywanttosaythatifthispolicyofunilateralactionscontinues
andifstepsintheinternationalarenathatareverysensitivetotheinternationalcommunityarenot
coordinatedthensuchconsequencesareinevitable.Conversely,ifwelistentooneanotherandseekout
abalanceofinterests,thiswillnothappen.Yes,itisadifficultprocess,theprocessofreachingagreement,
butitistheonlypathtoacceptablesolutions.
Ibelievethatifweensuresuchcooperation,therewillbenotalkofacoldwar.Afterall,sincetheArab
Spring,theyhavealreadyapproachedourborders.WhydidtheyhavetosupportthecoupinUkraine?
Ihaveoftenspokenaboutthis.Theinternalpoliticalsituationthereiscomplicatedandtheoppositionthatis
inpowernowwouldmostlikelyhavecometopowerdemocratically,throughelections.Thatsit.We
wouldhaveworkedwiththemaswehadwiththegovernmentthatwasinpowerbeforePresident
Yanukovych.
Butno,theyhadtoproceedwithacoup,casualties,unleashbloodshed,acivilwar,andscaretheRussian-
speakingpopulationofsoutheasternUkraineandCrimea.Allforthesakeofwhat?Andafterwehadto,
simplyhadtotakemeasurestoprotectcertainsocialgroups,theybegantoescalatethesituation,
ratchetinguptensions.Inmyopinion,thisisbeingdone,amongotherthings,tojustifytheexistence
oftheNorthAtlanticbloc.Theyneedanexternaladversary,anexternalenemyotherwisewhyisthis
organisationnecessaryinthefirstplace?ThereisnoWarsawPact,noSovietUnionwhoisitdirected
against?
Ifwecontinuetoactaccordingtothislogic,escalating[tensions]andredoublingeffortstoscareeach
other,thenonedayitwillcometoacoldwar.Ourlogicistotallydifferent.Itisfocusedoncooperation
andthesearchforcompromise.(Applause.)
FareedZakaria:Soletmeaskyou,MrPresident,thenwhatisthewayout?BecauseIsawaninterview
ofyoursthatyoudidwithDieWelt,theGermannewspaper,inwhichyousaid,thekeyproblemisthat
theMinskAccordshavenotbeenimplementedbytheGovernmentinUkraine,byKiev,theconstitutional
reforms.TheysayontheothersidethatinEasternUkraine,theviolencehasnotcomedown,
andtheseparatistsarenotrestrainingthemselves,andtheybelieveRussiashouldhelp.Sosinceneither
sideseemstobackdown,willthesanctionsjustcontinue,willthislow-gradecoldwarjustcontinue?What
isthewayout?
VladimirPutin:Anditisallaboutpeople,nomatterwhatyoucallthem.Itisaboutpeopletryingtoprotect
theirlegalrightsandinterests,whofearrepressioniftheseinterestsarenotupheldatthepoliticallevel.
IfwelookattheMinskagreements,thereareonlyafewpoints,andwediscussedthemallthrough
thenight.Whatwastheboneofcontention?Whataspectisofprimaryimportance?Andweagreed
ultimatelythatpoliticalsolutionsthatensurethesecurityofpeoplelivinginDonbasswerethepriority.
Whatarethesepoliticalsolutions?Theyarelaiddownindetailintheagreements.Constitutional
amendmentsthathadtobeadoptedbytheendof2015.Butwherearethey?Theyarenowheretobe
seen.Thelawonaspecialstatusoftheseterritories,whichwecallunrecognizedrepublics,shouldhave
beenputintopractice.Thelawhasbeenpassedbythecountrysparliamentbutstillhasntcomeinto
effect.Thereshouldhavebeenanamnestylaw.ItwaspassedbytheUkrainianparliamentbutwasnever
signedbythepresident,ithasnoeffect.
Whatkindofelectionsarewetalkingabout?Whatsortofelectionprocesscanbeorganisedduring
ananti-terroristoperation?Doanycountriesdothat?Wedonottalkaboutit,butdoesanyothercountry
holdelectioncampaignswhenananti-terroristoperationistakingplaceonitsterritory?
They[elections]havetobecancelledandourworkshouldfocusoneconomicandhumanitarian
restoration.Nothingisbeingdone,nothingatall.Postponingtheseproblemsoveron-goingviolence
onthefrontlinesisjustanexcuse.Whatishappeninginrealityisthatbothsidesareaccusingeachother
ofopeningfire.Whydoyouthinkitisseparatistswhoareshooting?Ifyouaskthem,theysay,Itis
Ukrainiangovernmentforces,theUkrainianarmy.
Onesideopensfire,theothersiderespondsthatswhatexchangingfiremeans.Doyouthinkthisis
agoodenoughreasontodelaypoliticalreforms?Onthecontrary,politicalreformsthatwillconstitute
thefoundationofafinalsettlementonsecurityareapressingpriority.
Somethingshavetobedoneinparallel.IagreewithMrPoroshenkothattheOSCEmissionhastobe
reinforcedtothepointofauthorizingOSCEobserverstocarryfirearms.Otherthingscanbedone
toimprovesecurity.Butwecannotaffordtocontinueputtingoffkeypoliticaldecisionbycitingthelack
ofsecurityinthearea.Thatsit.(Applause.)
..
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/52178
Meetingwithheadsofinternationalnewsagencies
VladimirPutinhadameetingwithheadsofleadinginternationalnewsagencies.
SergeiMikhailov:LetusnowgobacktotheAmericancontinent.MalcolmKirkhasbeenrepresenting
CanadianPress,Canadasnationalnewsagency,forthreeyearsatourmeetings.OnSeptember1,
theagencywillcelebrateits100thanniversary,andIhopethatbeingahugefanofhockeyMrKirkwilluse
thiscentenaryasanopportunitytoplayhockey,andmaybeyouwouldeveninvitehimtoplayintheNight
HockeyLeague.
VladimirPutin:Withpleasure,butonlyifheplaysonmyteam,sinceCanadiansaresogoodaticehockey.
MalcolmKirk:Thankyou.WelookforwardtowelcomingRussiaandothercountriestoToronto
andtoCanadalaterthissummerfortheWorldCupofHockeysoitshouldbeagreatevent.Iveseen
afewofyourhockeymoves.Youknowhowtoscoreafewgoals,MrPresident.Soyourstatsarepretty
good.Thankyouagainforinvitingustothismeetingwithyou.Itisaprivilegeandwecertainlyappreciate
theopportunitytospendsometimewithyou.Iamgoingtoaskyou:therearesomereportsthatCanadais
underpressurefromtheUnitedStatestojoinBritain,GermanyandtheUSintheNATOinitiativethat
wouldseefourtroopbattalionsstationedinPolandandotherBalticstates.Thesecountriesmayfeelthisis
perhapsanactofdeterrenceintheeventthatRussiawastoperhapsinvadetheirterritory.Howwouldyou
viewCanadasparticipationinNATOplansshouldtheCanadiangovernmentmakethedecisiontodoso?
AndIguessgenerallyhowwouldyoucharacteriseRussiasrelationswithCanadanowthatwehaveanew
government?Thankyou.
VladimirPutin:Letmestartwiththelastpartofyourquestion.SincethenewPrimeMinistertookoffice
inCanada,therehasbeenachancethatrelationsbetweenRussiaandCanadacouldimprove.Thisiswhat
thePrimeMinistertoldmeinpersonattheG20SummitinAntalya.Hesaidhewantedtothinkofways
tofullyrestoreourrelations.Wewelcomeinitiativesofthiskindandarereadytocombineourefforts
indeliveringonthisobjective.Wewillworktogether,buttherearespecificstepsthatshouldbetaken
bybothsidesbeforewegetthere.
Asforthemissiledefencesystem,look,peopleinthisaudiencearealladultsandareveryexperienced.
IamnotaskingyoutomirroreverythingIamabouttosaywordforwordinyourcoverageortoinfluence
presscoverage.Ijustwanttotellyousomethinginperson,andremindyouofsomethings.Afterall,
theworldisfreeoflarge-scalewarsormilitaryconflict,andweallknowthat.Thisisduetotheso-called
strategicbalancethatemergedwhentwonuclearsuperpowersagreedtolimittheiroffensiveandmissile-
defencearsenals.Everyoneunderstandsthatifonesideismoresuccessfulindevelopingitsmissiledefence
thantheother,itgainsanedgeandhasthetemptationtobethefirsttousetheseweapons.Itisforthis
reasonthatmissiledefenceandagreementsinthisregardareoneofthecornerstonesofinternational
security.
Itisnotatallmyintentiontoberateoraccuseanyoneofanything,butwhenourUSpartnersunilaterally
withdrew[fromtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty],thiswasamajorblow.Infact,thiswasthefirstblow
tointernationalstabilityintermsofupsettingthestrategicbalanceofpower.Isaidbackthen,Weare
currentlyunabletodevelopthistechnologyduetothehighcosts,andsecondly,ithasyettobeseenhowit
willwork.Insteadofsimplysiphoningoffmoney,wewillgotheotherwaybyimprovingRussiasoffensive
weaponsinordertomaintainthebalance.Thiswastheonlypurpose,andithadnothingtodowith
threateninganyone.Hereiswhatweheardinresponse:Itistruethatourmissiledefencesystemisnot
intendedtoopposeRussia,andweassumethatwhatyoudoisnotagainstus,soyoumaydoasyou
please.
Icanexplainthisbysaying,asIdidattheplenarysessiontoday,thatitwastheearly2000swhenRussia
wasinaverycomplicatedsituation,witharuinedeconomy,anactualcivilwarandthefightagainst
terrorismintheCaucasus,thedefenceindustrycollapsingandtheArmedForcesdramaticallyweakened.
WhocouldimaginethenthatRussiawouldbuildupitsstrategicweapons?Theyprobablythoughtthat
theweaponsRussiainheritedfromtheSovietUnionwouldeventuallybecomedegraded.Andsotheytold
ustogoaheadanddowhatwewanted.However,weinformedthemaboutourplans,whichweare
implementing.Trustme:Russiahasmovedalongwayonthispath.Iwillnotreadouttheentirelist,but
Icantellyouthatwehavemodernisedourweaponsandarecreatingnew-generationsystems,not
tomentiontheweaponsthataredesignedtopenetrateballisticmissiledefencesystems.
Despiteallourobjectionsandoffersofrealcooperation,ourpartnersdonotwanttocooperatewithus
theyhaverejectedallofourproposalsandareworkingtotheirownplans.Ibelieveitinappropriatetosay
certainthingsinpublic,butIcanassureyou,andyoucanchoosetobelievemeornot,thatweoffered
practicalcooperationalternativesthatwererejected.
Eventually,theybuiltaBMDsysteminRomania.Theykeptsayingthattheyweredoingthistoprotect
themselvesagainstanIraniannuclearthreat.Butwhereisthisthreatnow?Itdoesnotexist.Wehave
signedatreatywithIran,anditwastheUnitedStatesthatinitiatedit.Wedidourbest,helpingasmuch
aswecould,butthetreatywasonlymadepossiblethroughthepositionoftheUS.Thissuccessshouldbe
creditedtoPresidentObama.Ibelieveitisagoodtreaty,whichhaseasedtensionsaroundIran,
andPresidentObamashoulddefinitelygivehimselfthecreditforthis.
Anyway,thereisnoIranianthreat,buttheBMDsystemisbeingbuiltnevertheless.Thismightmeanthat
wewererightwhenwesuspectedourpartnersofbeinginsincere,ofdeceivinguswithreferences
toanallegedIraniannuclearthreat.Yes,thisishowitwastheyattemptedtocheatusagain.
Theyhavebuiltthissystemandarenowdeliveringmissilesthere.Youprobablyknowthatthelaunch
systemsoftheTomahawksea-launchedintermediate-rangemissileswillbeusedtolaunchanti-missiles
withaneffectiverangeof500kilometres.However,technologydoesnotstandstill,andweknowmore
orlesspreciselywhentheAmericanswillcreateanewmissilethatwillhavearangeof1,000
kilometresormore.Fromthattimeon,theywillbeathreattoournucleararsenals.
Weknowwhatwillhappenandinwhichyear,andtheyknowweknowit.Theyarejustthrowingdust
inoureyes,asthesayinggoes,andyouinturnarethrowingdustintheeyesofyourpeople.Whatbothers
meisthatpeoplearenotawareofthedanger.Wefailtounderstandthatwearedraggingtheworldinto
acompletelynewdimension.Thisiswhatthisisallabout.Theyarepretendingasifnothingisgoing
on.Idonotevenknowhowtoputmymessageacross.
Wearebeingtoldthatthisispartofadefensive,notoffensive,capability,thatthesesystemsareintended
toensuredefenceagainstaggression.Thisisnottrue.Thisisnotthewaythingsare.Astrategicmissile
defencesystemispartofanoffensivestrategiccapability,andistightlylinkedtooffensivemissilestrike
systems.Somehigh-precisionweaponsareusedtocarryoutapre-emptivestrike,whileothers
serveasashieldagainstaretaliatorystrike,andstillotherscarryoutnuclearstrikes.Allthese
objectivesarerelated,andgohandinhandwiththeuseofhigh-precisionconventionalweapons.
Allright,evenifweputasidetheinterceptormissilesthatwillbedevelopedinthefuture,increasingly
threateningRussia,butthelaunchtubeswherethesemissilesarestored,asIsaid,arethesamethatare
usedonnavyshipstocarryTomahawkmissiles.Youcanreplaceinterceptormissileswith
Tomahawksinamatterofhoursandthesetubeswillnolongerbeusedtointerceptmissiles.
Howdoweknowwhatisinsidethem?Alltheyneedistochangethesoftware.Thiscanbedone
seamlesslyeventheRomanianswouldnotknowwhatisgoingon,sincetheycannotaccess
thesefacilities,right?Noonewillknow,neithertheRomanians,northePoles.Iknowhowthisis
done.Inmyopinion,thisisamajorthreat.
WhenwediscussedthiswithourUSpartners,theyhadtheideaofcreatingnonnuclearballistic
missiles.Wesaid,Listen,doyouunderstandwhatthiswouldbe?Imaginethatyoufire
asubmarine-launchorland-basedmissile.Aballisticmissileislaunched.Howdoweknow
whetheritiscarryinganuclearwarheadornot?Doyouunderstandthekindofthreatthiswould
create?Asfarasweknow,thisprogrammeiscurrentlysuspended.Theyhavestoppedit
fornow.However,theyarestillworkingonit.
Idonotknowwherethiswilltakeus.However,Russiawilldefinitelyhavetoretaliate.Iknowalreadythat
wewillbeaccusedofactingaggressively,eventhoughallwedoisrespond.Itisclearthatwewillhave
toensuresecurity,andnotjustinRussia,sinceensuringthestrategicbalanceofpowergloballyisamatter
ofgreatimportanceforus.
IwouldliketoconcludemyanswerwithwhatIstartedwith:itisthestrategicbalancethatensured
andguaranteedpeaceontheplanet,sparingusfrommajormilitaryconflictoverthelast70years.This
shouldbeviewedasgood,eventhoughitisbasedonmutualthreat.However,thismutualthreatbrought
aboutglobalpeacefordecades.Idonotknowhowanyonecouldwanttodestroyit.Ibelievethatthis
wouldbeverydangerous.NotonlydoIbelieveit,Iamcertainofit.
IfCanadawantstojoin,goahead,whatcanwesay?Wecannotorderyou.Doasyouplease,andwewill
doaswedeemnecessaryintermsofensuringoursecurity.
SergeiMikhailov:Thankyou,MrPresident.
PutinCallsU.S.MissileShield'GreatDanger,'VowsRussian
Response
June18,2016RFE/RL
RussianPresidentVladimirPutincalledtheU.S.missileshieldinEasternEuropea"greatdanger"andsaid
Russiawillrespond.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascalledtheU.S.missileshieldinEasternEuropea"greatdanger"and
vowedthatMoscowwillrespondbyenhancingitsownmissilestrikecapability.
WhileNATOinsiststheshieldisadefensivesystemaimedinpartatthwartingpossibleIranianmissile
strikes,PutinsaiditcanbeeasilyturnedintoanoffensivesystemthatcouldbeusedagainstRussia.
"Thosetubes,thosesiloswheremissilesareputareusedforTomahawks.TheseTomahawkscanbeput
thereinjustafewhours,andthenthesewillbenotmissileinterceptors,"Putintoldinternationalnews
leadersinSt.PetersburgonJune17.
"Youhaveonlytochangethesoftware,andthat'sit.Thisworkisabsolutelyinvisible.TheRomanianswon't
knowwhat'shappeningthere,"hesaid."Nobodywillknow,eitherRomaniansorPoles.Iknowhowit's
done."
"Inmyview,thisisreallydangerous,"hesaid,addingthat"weknowapproximatelywhichyearthe
Americanswillgetanewmissilethatwillhavearangeofnot500kilometersbut1,000kilometers,and
fromthatmomenttheywillstartthreateningournuclearpotential."
Putinaddedthat"wewillhavetorespond"tothethreats,although"Iknowinadvancethatwewillagainbe
accusedofaggressivebehavior"whenRussiaresponds.
"Wewillperfectourmissilestrikecapability,"toensurethat"strategicbalance"ismaintainedinEurope,he
said."Wewillhavetoensurenotonlyourownsecurity.Itisvitalforustoensurestrategicbalanceinthe
world."
PutinaddedthatheworriesthatthegrowingmilitaryconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheUnitedStates
"isdraggingtheworldintoanewdimension."
"Peoplefeelnodanger,andthatisalarmingforme.Canweseethatwearedraggingtheworldintoan
utterlynewdimension?"
Putinsaidhedidn'tknowhowto"bringthishome"toleadersfromothercountries.
WithreportingbyReuters,Interfax,andTASS
http://www.rferl.mobi/a/putin-calls-us-missile-shield-eastern-europe-great-danger-vows-russian-
response/27806039.html
FareedZakaria:Letmeaskyou,MrPresident,aboutanotherdemocracythatishavingaverydifferent
kindofdrama.YoumadesomecommentsabouttheAmericanRepublicanpresumptivenominee,Donald
Trump.Youcalledhimbrilliant,outstanding,talented.Thesecommentswerereportedaroundtheworld.
Iwaswondering,whatinhimledyoutothatjudgement,anddoyoustillholdthatjudgement?
VladimirPutin:Youarewellknowninourcountry,youpersonally.NotonlyasahostofamajorTV
corporation,butalsoasanintellectual.Whyareyoudistortingeverything?Thejournalistinyouisgetting
thebetteroftheanalyst.Look,whatdidIsay?IsaidinpassingthatTrumpisavividpersonality.Ishenot?
Heis.Ididnotascribeanyothercharacteristicstohim.However,whatIdefinitelynoteandwhat
IdefinitelywelcomeandIseenothingwrongaboutthis,justtheoppositeisthatMrTrumpsaidthathe
isreadyforthefull-scalerestorationofRussian-USrelations.Whatiswrongwiththat?Weallwelcome
this!Dontyou?
Weneverinterfereintheinternalpoliticsofothercountries,especiallytheUnitedStates.However,wewill
workwithanypresidentthattheUSpeoplevotefor.AlthoughIdonotthink,bytheway,thatWell,they
lectureeveryoneonhowtoliveandondemocracy.Now,doyoureallythinkpresidentialelectionsthere
aredemocratic?Look,twiceinUShistoryapresidentwaselectedbyamajorityofelectors,butstanding
behindthoseelectorswasasmallernumberofvoters.Isthatdemocracy?Andwhen(sometimeswehave
debateswithourcolleaguesweneveraccuseanyoneofanything,wesimplyhavedebates)wearetold:
Donotmeddleinouraffairs.Mindyourownbusiness.Thisishowwedothings,wefeellikesaying:
Wellthen,donotmeddleinouraffairs.Whydoyou?Putyourownhouseinorderfirst.
But,toreiterate,indeed,thisisnoneofourbusinessalthough,inmyopinion,evenprosecutorstherechase
internationalobserversawayfrompollingstationsduringelectioncampaigns.USprosecutorsthreaten
tojailthem.However,thesearetheirownproblemsthisishowtheydothingsandtheylikeit.Americais
agreatpower,todayperhapstheonlysuperpower.Weacceptthis.WewanttoworkwiththeUnited
Statesandwearepreparedto.Nomatterhowtheseelectionsgo,eventuallytheywilltakeplace.There
willbea[new]headofstatewithextensivepowers.Therearecomplicatedinternalpoliticalandeconomic
processesatworkintheUnitedStates.TheworldneedsapowerfulcountryliketheUnitedStates,
andwealsoneedit.Butwedonotneedittocontinuouslyinterfereinouraffairs,tellingushowtolive,
andpreventingEuropefrombuildingarelationshipwithus.
HowarethesanctionsthatyouhavementionedaffectingtheUnitedStates?Innowaywhatsoever.It
couldnotcarelessaboutthesesanctionsbecausetheconsequencesofouractionsinresponsehaveno
impactonit.TheyimpactEuropebutnottheUnitedStates.Zeroeffect.However,theAmericansare
tellingtheirpartners:Bepatient.Whyshouldthey?Idonotunderstand.Iftheywantto,letthem.
Matteo,whyshouldtheybepatient?NowMatteowillexplainwhytheyshould.Heisabrilliantorator,
wereseeingitnow.Hisremarkswereexcellent.Iamsayingthissincerely,honestly.Italycanbeproud
ofitsPrimeMinister,really.Justbeautiful.
Wedonotlavishpraiseonanybody.Itsnoneofourbusiness.AsGermanssay,thisisnotourbeer.
Becausewhentheymaketheirchoice,wewillworkwithanypresidentwhohasreceivedthesupport
oftheAmericanpeople,inthehopethatitwillbeapersonwhoseekstodeveloprelationswithour
countryandhelpbuildamoresecureworld.
FareedZakaria:Justtobeclear,MrPresident,thewordbrilliantwasintheInterfaxtranslation,Irealize
thatothertranslationsmightsaybright,butIusedtheofficialInterfaxtranslation.Butletmeaskyou
aboutanotherpersonyouhavedealtwithagreatdeal.MrTrump,you'venevermet.HillaryClintonwas
SecretaryofState.InyourverylongquestionsandanswerswiththeRussianpeople,youmadeajoke
whensomebodyaskedyouaboutheryousaid,IthinkthattheRussiaidiomis,thehusbandandwifeis
thesamedevil.AndwhatitmeansintheEnglishversionis,it'stwosidesofthesamecoin.Whatdidyou
meanbythat,andhowdidshedoasSecretaryofState?Youdealtwithherextensively.
VladimirPutin:Ididnotworkwithher,Lavrovdid.Askhim.Heissittinghere.
Iwasnotaforeignminister,butSergeiLavrovwas.Hewillsoontie[SovietForeignMinisterAndrei]
Gromyko.(AddressingSergeiLavrov.)Howlonghaveyoubeeninoffice?
IworkedwithBillClinton,althoughforaveryshorttime,andwehadaverygoodrelationship.Icaneven
saythatIamgratefultohimforcertainmomentsasIwasenteringthebigstageinpolitics.Onseveral
occasions,heshowedsignsofattention,respectformepersonally,aswellasforRussia.Iremember
thisandIamgratefultohim.
AboutMsClinton.PerhapsshehasherownviewonthedevelopmentofRussian-USrelations.Youknow,
thereissomethingIwouldliketodraw[your]attentionto,whichhasnothingtodowithRussian-US
relationsorwithnationalpolitics.Itisrelated,rather,topersonnelpolicy.
Inmyexperience,Ihaveoftenseenwhathappenswithpeoplebeforetheytakeonacertainjob
andafterward.Often,youcannotrecognisethem,becauseoncetheyreachanewlevelofresponsibility
theybegintotalkandthinkdifferently,theyevenlookdifferent.Weactontheassumptionthatthesense
ofresponsibilityoftheUSheadofstate,theheadofthecountryonwhichagreatdealintheworld
dependstoday,thatthissenseofresponsibilitywillencouragethenewlyelectedpresidenttocooperate
withRussiaand,Iwouldliketorepeat,buildamoresecureworld.
Senttime: 06/30/201602:29:25AM
To: ThomasGraham<tom.graham83@gmail.com>







equipment.


close.
approach.
FuelingtheDragon
Gas
Oil
opportunity.47
Schlumberger.
Westernsanctions.
AnyMarketforaBear?
sanctionsregime.
Ukrainiancitizens.
TechnologicalLinks
ComradesinArms
commercialsense.
resources.
economies.
infrastructure.
toChinaasaresult.
andbids.
Notes
2015):1318.
gas/ijra.
2005,
52Ibid.
64Ibid.
project.
From: Handler,JoshuaM<HandlerJM@state.gov>
Senttime: 06/20/201601:01:25PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>Gottemoeller,RoseE<GottemoellerRE@state.gov>
Cc: Otto,Robert<OttoRC@state.gov>
Attachments: RE:PutinonABMTreaty/MissileDefenseatStPEconomicForum6/17.eml
Rose,YesinthesensetheyarefromtheKremlinwebsiteandseeminglyfollowtheRussiantranscript.WhethertheKremlins
translationgoteverynuanceoftheoriginalRussianIcantquitesay,butBobsenttheexcerptsfrombothpresentationsinhisearlier
e-mail.Seeattached.Thanks,
From:Gottemoeller,RoseE
To:Handler,JoshuaM'Bob'
JaneyF
Thanks,
atthetechnological.
backup.
Chaos.
Yanukovych.
against?
isthewayout?
..
HockeyLeague.
security.
please.
Response
June18,2016RFE/RL
Russiawillrespond.
done."
world."
this!Dontyou?
Senttime: 06/20/201610:33:21AM
JaneyF
Thanks,
atthetechnological.
backup.
Chaos.
Yanukovych.
against?
isthewayout?
..
HockeyLeague.
security.
please.
Response
June18,2016RFE/RL
Russiawillrespond.
done."
world."
this!Dontyou?
Senttime: 06/20/201608:55:35AM
Subject: FW:"RussianinvestigatorsCLOSENEMTSOVMURDERCASE,"themoscowtimes.com,6/20
From:JohnBDunlop
Subject:"RussianinvestigatorsCLOSENEMTSOVMURDERCASE,"themoscowtimes.com,6/20
Fivedefendants[allChechens]arenowtostandtrialonchargesofcommittingmurderforpayment
andtheillegalacquisition,transportationandstorageoffirearmsProsecutorsclaimthatRuslan
MIKHDINOV,alowrankingofficerinChechnyasSeverBattalion,hadofferedthemen$234,000to
carryoutNemtsovsmurder.Mukhdinov,whoiscurrentlyontherun,isbelievedtohave
mastermindedtheplot
And:TheinvestigationintoNemtsovskillinghasbeensolved,
http://newsru.com/russia/20jun2016/nemtsov_print.html
ThelawyerfortheNemtsovfamilyVadimPROKHOROV:Therealmastermindofthekillinghasnot
beennamed.
And:DavidAXE,USandRussianjetsCLASHoverSyria:AmericanandRussianfighterjetshadatense
showdownintheskiesaboveSyria,thedailybeast.com,6/19
And:RussianstatetelevisionaccidentallybroadcastsevidencethatMoscowusesCLUSTERBOMBSin
Syria,meduza.io,6/20Englishedition
And:IntheStateDumatheyhaveadoptedanamendmenttothelawontheROSGVARDIYA[National
Guard]permittingtroopstoFIREATCROWDS,
http://newsru.com/russia/20jun2016/gosdm_print.html
And:MichaelRikey,JordanRoberson,HackerstargetingCLINTONAIDESstruckacrossUSpolitics,
Bloomberg.com,6/17
TheRussianhackerswhohittheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandHillaryClintonscampaign
burrowedmuchfurtherintotheUSpoliticalsystem,sweepinginlawfirms,lobbyists,consultants,
foundationsandthepolicygroupsknownasthinktanks.
And:RussianPROXIESattackUkraine31timesinlastday,unian.info,6/20
And:TherealincomeofRussiansFELL11.5%inMay,
http://www.rosbalt.ru/business/2016/06/20/1524703.html
And:Starsofcontraband,onthewaroftheFSBwithRussianCustomsforthecontrolof
contrabandflows:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73510.html?print=1
13pageinvestigation
And:ArchivesofthewarinSLAVYANSK,
http://www.gazeta.ru/politics/2016/06/10_a_8290745.shtml
ThearchivesofSTRELKOVinthenowUkrainiancontrolledcityofSlavyanskhavebeenopenedandthe
crimesoftherebelsarebeingrevealed.
And:RussianStateDumaELECTIONSbegins,themoscowtimes.com,6/20
Senttime: 06/18/201610:48:09AM
Subject: FW:Ofpossibleinterest:"HackerstargetingClintonaidesstruckacrossUSpolitics,"bloomberg.com,6/17
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Saturday,June18,201610:48AM
To:'pgregory@stanford.edu'
Subject:Ofpossibleinterest:"HackerstargetingClintonaidesstruckacrossUSpolitics,"bloomberg.com,6/17
TheRussianhackerswhohittheDNCandHillaryClintonscampaignburrowedmuchfurtherintotheUSpoliticalsystem,
sweepinginlawfirms,lobbyists,consultants,foundationsandthepolicygroupsknownasthinktanksAlmost4,000Google
accountsweretargetedfromOctoberthroughmidMay
Senttime: 06/20/201609:33:31AM
FW:[BB..resendingitemtothisbccsec][ALATESATEVENINGPOST'COMPARE&CONTRAST'][FantasyFactory][ANT/F]BBC:
Subject:
DE/FMSteinmeierhaswarnedNatoagainst"warmongering"(callingEEexercisesprovocative)..[HarshHarshReality][MK][byJSinObser
Sent:Saturday,June18,20167:53PM
Subject:[BB..resendingitemtothisbccsec][ALATESATEVENINGPOST'COMPARE&CONTRAST'][FantasyFactory][ANT/F]BBC:
DE/FMSteinmeierhaswarnedNatoagainst"warmongering"(callingEEexercisesprovocative)..[HarshHarshReality][MK][byJSin
Observ...
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,Jun18,2016at10:05PM
Subject:[ALATESATEVENINGPOST'COMPARE&CONTRAST'][FantasyFactory][ANT/F]BBC:DE/FMSteinmeier
haswarnedNatoagainst"warmongering"(callingEEexercisesprovocative)..[HarshHarshReality][MK][byJSinObserver]
FalseFlags:TheKremlinsHiddenCyberHand[intheCyberCaliphatethreat](.speakingofprovocative)
Subject:SteinmeierhaswarnedNatoagainst"warmongering"[ED:IstheoldDE/SDFMfollowinginthefootstepsof
hisBoss,Gazprom'sGerrySchroeder??.orisheishisownman--ie--thegrandarchitectofadisastrousUA&GE
NATOMAPrefusalattheBucharestSummitof2008??]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
NordStream2insteadofmilitaryexercises,isthathisidea?("makelove,notwar")
SteinmeierhaswarnedNatoagainst"warmongering",afteritconductedmilitaryexercisesin
EasternEurope.MrSteinmeiersaidthatextensiveNatomanoeuvreslaunchedthismonthwerecounterproductiveto
regionalsecurityandcouldinflametensionswithRussia.
HeurgedtheNatomilitaryalliancetoreplacetheexerciseswithmoredialogueandco-operationwithRussia.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36566422
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Subject:FalseFlags:TheKremlinsHiddenCyberHand|Observer[ED/Notethesub-title:"TheIslamicStates
hackingarmydoesntactuallyworkforISISItspartofthesecretRussianonlineespionageeffortagainstthe
West"]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
FalseFlags:TheKremlinsHiddenCyberHand|Observer
http://observer.com/2016/06/false-flags-the-kremlins-hidden-cyber-hand/
OPINION
FalseFlags:TheKremlinsHiddenCyberHand
TheIslamicStateshackingarmydoesntactuallyworkforISISItspartofthesecret
RussianonlineespionageeffortagainsttheWest
ByJohnR.Schindler06/18/1612:15pm
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinattheKremlininMoscow.(Photo:YURIKOCHETKOV/AFP/GettyImages)
Fortwoyearstheso-calledCyberCaliphatehasbeentheonlineweaponbrandishedbytheIslamicState
againstitsenemies.Itshackingoffensive,includingaggressiveuseofsocialmedia,madefront-pagenews
aroundtheworld,heraldinganewfrontinthatmurderousgroupsworldwidejihadagainstinfidels.
PledgingsupporttoISIS,theCyberCaliphatehackedanddefacedU.S.Governmentwebsitesandsocial
mediafeeds,includingthoseofCentralCommand,thePentagonsMiddleEastheadquarters.Numerous
smallercyber-attacksfollowed.TheyalsohackedintoDepartmentofDefensedatabasesandpostedthe
personalinformationof1,400Americanmilitaryaffiliatesonline.
TheCyberCaliphatehasattackedtargetsinmanycountries,includingallegedlyaccessingtopsecretemails
belongingtoseniorBritishgovernmentofficials.ThemostpublicoftheirattackswastheApril
2015hijackingofseveralfeedsbelongingtotheFrenchchannelTV5Monde,whichincludeddefacingits
websitewiththesloganJesuisISIS.Thisassault,seenbymillionsofpeopleworldwide,gavethegroup
thenotorietyitcraved
TheAmerican-ledcoalitionagainstISIShastakentheCyberCaliphatethreatseriously,devotingsignificant
intelligenceresourcestotrackingandstudyingthegroup.WesternfearsincreasedthisAprilwith
theannouncementthatdisparateISIShackersweremerging,creatinganewUnitedCyberCaliphate,
designedtobeamajorexpansionoftheexistingCyberCaliphate.Drawingtogetherjihadisthackersfrom
manycountries,thiswouldconstituteamajoronlinethreat.
Inresponse,thePentagoninlateFebruaryannouncedtheunleashingofrealcyber-waragainstISIS,
includingattacksbyU.S.CyberCommandagainsttheIslamicstatescommunications,inanefforttodisrupt
theiractivitiesbothkineticandonline.NeitherarethePentagonseffortstoshutdowntheIslamicStates
onlineanticslimitedtotheInternet.InAugust2015,adrone-strikeatRaqqa,ISISsSyrianstronghold,
killedJunaidHussain,a21-year-oldBritishjihadistofPakistanioriginwhowasthegroupsbest-known
hacker.
However,therehavelongbeenwhispersthattheCyberCaliphateisnotwhatitclaimstobe.French
intelligenceexaminedthegroupcloselyaftertheTV5Mondeattackandconcludedthatthehackersinvolved
actuallyhadnothingtodowiththeIslamicState.Rather,theywereaffiliatesofahackingcollectiveknown
tobeaffiliatedwiththeKremlin,inparticularAPT28,anotoriousgroupthatsasecretarmofMoscow,
accordingtoWesternsecurityexperts.Inotherwords,theCyberCaliphateisaRussianintelligence
operationworkingthroughwhatspiestermacut-out.
CyberCaliphateisaRussianfalse-flagoperationnastier
intelligenceserviceswillmasqueradeasterroriststofurther
theiragenda.
U.S.secretagencies,includingtheNationalSecurityAgency,whichcontrolsAmericancyber-espionageand
workscloselywithCYBERCOM,cametosimilarconclusions.APT28isRussianintelligence,itsthat
simple,explainedanNSAexperttomerecently.Hencethemid-2015StateDepartmentsecurityreportthat,
whileassessingthejihadisthackersasaformidablethreat,neverthelessconcluded,AlthoughCyber
Caliphatedeclarestosupport[theIslamicState],therearenoindicationstechnicalorotherwisethatthe
groupsaretied.
ThishasbecometheconsensusviewamongWesternintelligenceservicesthathavecloselyexaminedISIS
hackingefforts.FromthenewsmagazineDerSpiegelwenowlearnthatGermanspyservicestoohave
concludedthattheCyberCaliphateisreallyasecretRussianoperation.Germanintelligenceassessesthatthe
Kremlinhassome4,000hackersonthepayrollofitssecurityagencies,includingtheGeneralStaffsMain
IntelligenceDirectorateorGRU,theForeignIntelligenceServiceorSVR,andtheFederalSecurityService
orFSB.Together,thisisaformidableoffensivecyberforcethatoperatesthroughfrontsandcut-outsto
attackWesterninterests.
Inotherwords,theCyberCaliphateisaRussianfalse-flagoperation.Althoughthatloadedtermhasbeen
hijackedbytinfoil-hatwearersandfringewebsites,includinglunaticswhothinkhorrificschoolshootings
didntactuallyhappen,itsaperfectlylegitimateespionagemethodofvenerablevintage.Spyagencies
routinelyposeasthirdpartiesforoperationalpurposessuchasagentrecruitmentandcovertaction.The
nastierintelligenceserviceswillevenmasqueradeasterroriststofurthertheiragenda.
NobodyismoreadeptatthisdodgypracticethantheRussians,whohavebeenusingfalse-flagsintheirspy
workformorethanacentury.Indeed,fortheKremlin,thiscommonplacepracticeconstitutesakeyelement
ofwhattheytermprovocation(provokatsiyainRussian),meaningtheuseofspiesandtheiragentstocause
secretpoliticaleffectsthatarehelpfultoMoscowandhurtfultoMoscowsenemies.
TheideathatVladimirPutinauthorizedhisintelligenceagenciestogotocyberwaragainsttheWestunderan
ISIScloakisanythingbutshockingtoanybodyinformedaboutlongstandingRussianespionagetradecraft,
whattheytellinglyrefertoaskonspiratsiya(yes,conspiracy).Theonlyinnovationhereistheonline
aspect.EverythingelsereflectsacenturyoflessonslearnedinKremlinspywork.Thesearethesortsof
clandestinethingsPutinwastrainedinandactuallydidasaKGBofficer.Andtherearenoformer
intelligenceofficers,astheRussianpresidenthasstated.
ThishasimplicationsfarbeyondtheIslamicState.NewsthisweekthatRussian-affiliatedhackershave
pillagedWashington,DC,includingraidingtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandHillaryClintons
campaign,oughtnotsurprise.AmongtheitemspilferedfromtheDNCincludeoppositionresearchon
DonaldTrump,thepresumptiveRepublicanpresidentialnominee.
Americahasneglectedcounterintelligenceforsolongthatwe
haveallowedRussianintelligenceintotheheartofnotjustour
securityservicesbutofourdemocracyitself.
NowwelearnthattheseKremlinhackingeffortsextendfarbeyondtheDNC.TargetsinrecentRussian
cyber-attacksincludenumerousthink-tanks,lawfirms,lobbyists,andconsultants.Therewerealsoalmost
4,000Googleaccountstargetedinaspear-phishingcampaigntostealpersonalandprivilegedinformation.
Itsclearthatthiscoordinatedoffensiveaimedattheheartofournationscapitalstoleagreatdealofinside
knowledgeaboutAmericaspoliticalelitethatwouldbeofhighvaluetoanyforeignintelligenceservice.
InsideinformationabouthowAmericanpoliticsactuallyworksincludingsecretdealsbetweenpoliticians,
lobbyists,lawyers,andconsultantswoulddefinitelybesomethingPutinwouldwanttoknowashis
governmentseekstounderstandandinfluenceourpoliticalelite,includingwhoeveriselectedournext
president.
AmericahasneglectedcounterintelligenceforsolongthatwehaveallowedRussianintelligenceintotheheart
ofnotjustoursecurityservicesbutofourdemocracyitself.Aidedbytopsecretinformationstolenbytheir
guestEdwardSnowdenfromNSAabouthowU.S.cybersecurityworks,Kremlinspiesarenowfeastingon
whatevertheylikeinWashington.
IpreviouslyexplainedinthiscolumnhowHillaryClintonsemailshenaniganshelpedourenemies,including
Russia,whileharmingournationalsecurity.Nowitsevidentthatourpoliticalsystemhasbeenpenetrated
top-to-bottombyRussianspies.WhoevermovesintotheWhiteHouseinJanuarywillfacediggingoutfrom
asecuritydebacleofunprecedentedproportions,withtheKremlinholdingtheupperhandacrosstheboard.
SEEALSO:VLADIMIRPUTINHASEVERYTHINGHENEEDSTOBLACKMAILHILLARY
CLINTON
JohnSchindlerisasecurityexpertandformerNationalSecurityAgencyanalystandcounterintelligence
officer.Aspecialistinespionageandterrorism,hesalsobeenaNavyofficerandaWarCollegeprofessor.
HespublishedfourbooksandisonTwitterat@20committee.
From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 06/18/201610:02:27AM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes18June2016
Attachments: IN18June16.docx
InternetNotes18June2016
MoreontheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum(PutinsspeechandQ&A:Russia/NATO/AnewColdWar?Ukraine/the
MinskagreementsSyria/Assad/ElectionsUSpresidentialelections/Russia-USThedopingscandal/Russiansoccer
fans)
StanovayaontheEconomicForumandforeignbusiness
SoloveyongesturestoAmerica
GermanforeignministeronNATOwarmongering
fans)
Seeyesterdaysnotes.
IdidabriefsummaryofPutinsspeechandincludedalinktotheRussianinyesterdaysnotes.HereareexcerptsfromanEnglish
versionofthespeech:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52178
Thestructuralproblemsaccumulatedbytheglobaleconomystillpersist,andwehavenotyetputoureconomyonthegrowthtrajectory.
Incidentally,currentgeopoliticaltensionsarerelated,tosomeextent,toeconomicuncertainty
andtheexhaustingoftheoldsourcesofgrowth.Thereisariskitmayincreaseorevenbeartificiallyprovoked.
Itisourcommoninteresttofindacreativeandconstructivewayoutofthissituation.
Theworldsleadingeconomiesarelookingforsourcesofgrowth,andtheyarelookingtocapitalise
ontheenormousexistingandgrowingpotentialofdigitalandindustrialtechnologies,robotics,energy,
biotechnology,medicineandotherfields.Discoveriesintheseareascanleadtotruetechnologicalrevolutions,
toanexplosivegrowthoflabourproductivity.Thisisalreadyhappeningandwillhappeninevitablythereis
impendingrestructuringofentireindustries,thedevaluationofmanyfacilitiesandassets.Thiswillalter
thedemandforskillsandcompetencies,andcompetitionwillescalateinbothtraditionalandemerging
markets.
Infact,eventodaywecanseeattemptstosecureorevenmonopolisethebenefitsofnextgeneration
technologies.This,Ithink,isthemotivebehindthecreationofrestrictedareaswithregulatorybarriers
toreducethecross-flowofbreakthroughtechnologiestootherregionsoftheworldwithfairlytightcontrolover
cooperationchainsformaximumgainfromtechnologicaladvances.Wehavediscussedthiswithour
colleaguessomesayitispossible.Ithinknot.Onecancontrolthespreadofcertaintechnologiesforawhile,
butintoday'sworlditwouldbenexttoimpossibletokeeptheminacontainedarea,evenalargearea.Yet,
theseeffortscouldleadtobasicsciences,nowopentosharingofknowledgeandinformationthroughjoint
projects,gettingclosedtoo,withseparationbarrierscomingup.
Over40statesandinternationalorganisationshaveexpressedthedesiretoestablishafreetradezonewith
theEurasianEconomicUnion.OurpartnersandwethinkthattheEAEUcanbecomeoneofthecentres
ofagreateremergentintegrationarea.Amongotherbenefits,wecanaddressambitioustechnological
problemswithinitsframework,promotetechnologicalprogressandattractnewmembers.Wediscussedthis
inAstanaquiterecently.NowweproposeconsideringtheprospectsformoreextensiveEurasianpartnership
involvingtheEAEUandcountrieswithwhichwealreadyhaveclosepartnershipChina,India,Pakistan
andIranandcertainlyourCISpartners,andotherinterestedcountriesandassociations.
AsearlyasJunewe,alongwithourChinesecolleagues,areplanningtostartofficialtalksontheformation
ofcomprehensivetradeandeconomicpartnershipinEurasiawiththeparticipationoftheEuropeanUnion
statesandChina.IexpectthatthiswillbecomeoneofthefirststepstowardtheformationofamajorEurasian
partnership.WewillcertainlyresumethediscussionofthismajorprojectattheEasternEconomicForum
inVladivostokinearlySeptember.Colleagues,Iwouldliketotakethisopportunitytoinviteallofyoutotake
partinit.
Friends,theprojectIhavejustmentionedthegreaterEurasiaprojectis,ofcourse,openforEurope,
andIamconvincedthatsuchcooperationmaybemutuallybeneficial.Despiteallofthewell-knownproblems
inourrelations,theEuropeanUnionremainsRussiaskeytradeandeconomicpartner.Itisournext-door
neighbourandwearenotindifferenttowhatishappeninginthelivesofourneighbours,Europeancountries
andtheEuropeaneconomy.
ThechallengeofthetechnologicalrevolutionandstructuralchangesarenolessurgentfortheEUthan
forRussia.IalsounderstandourEuropeanpartnerswhentheytalkaboutthecomplicateddecisionsforEurope
thatweremadeatthetalksontheformationoftheTrans-Atlanticpartnership.Obviously,Europehasavast
potentialandastakeonjustoneregionalassociationclearlynarrowsitsopportunities.Under
thecircumstances,itisdifficultforEuropetomaintainbalanceandpreservespaceforagainfulmanoeuvre.
AstherecentmeetingswithrepresentativesoftheGermanandFrenchbusinesscircleshaveshowed,
Europeanbusinessiswillingandreadytocooperatewiththiscountry.Politiciansshouldmeetbusinesses
halfwaybydisplayingwisdom,andafar-sightedandflexibleapproach.WemustreturntrusttoRussian-
Europeanrelationsandrestorethelevelofourcooperation.
Werememberhowitallstarted.Russiadidnotinitiatethecurrentbreakdown,disruption,problems
andsanctions.Allouractionshavebeenexclusivelyreciprocal.Butwedontholdagrudge,astheysay,
andarereadytomeetourEuropeanpartnershalfway.However,thiscanbynomeansbeaone-waystreet.
LetmerepeatthatweareinterestedinEuropeansjoiningtheprojectforamajorEurasianpartnership.Inthis
contextwewelcometheinitiativeofthePresidentofKazakhstanonholdingconsultationsbetween
theEurasianEconomicUnionandtheEU.Yesterdaywediscussedthisissueatthemeetingwith
thePresidentoftheEuropeanCommission.
Russiahasmanagedtoresolvethemosturgentcurrentproblemsintheeconomy.Wehopegrowthwill
resumeinthenearfuture.Wehavemaintainedreservesandsubstantiallyreducedcapitaldrainbyfivetimes
comparedwiththefirstquarterof2016.Inflationisgoingdownaswell.Ithasfallenalmostinhalfifwecompare
severalmonthsin20142015withthesameperiodin20152016.Ibelievethatitispossibletobringinflation
downto45percentasearlyasinthemid-termperspective.
Inaddition,itisnecessarytograduallydecreasethebudgetdeficitandthedependenceonrevenuesfrom
hydrocarbonsandotherrawmaterials.Thisincludescuttingournon-oilandgasdeficitatleastinhalf
inthenext5to7years.
Thecurrentslowdownisaglobaltrend.
Akeyfactorthatpredeterminestheoverallcompetitivenessoftheeconomy,marketdynamics,GDPgrowth
andhigherwagesislaborproductivity.Weneedhigherlaborproductivityatlargeandmedium-sized
enterprises:inindustry,intheconstructionandthetransportsectorsandinagriculturenolessthan5
percentayear.Thisappearstobeachallengingandevenunattainablegoal,ifwelookatwhatishappening
heretoday.Atthesametime,theexamplesofnumerousenterprises,aswellasofentiremanufacturing
sectors,suchastheaircraftindustry,thechemicalindustry,pharmaceuticsandagriculture,showthatthis
goalisquitefeasibleandrealistic.
Wewilldeveloplegislation,taxregulatorsandtechnicalstandardstoincentivisecompaniestoraiselabour
productivityandintroducelabourandenergysavingtechnology.Withthegrowthoflabourproductivity,
inefficientemploymentwillinevitablyshrink,whichmeanswewillneedtosubstantiallyincreasethelabour
marketsflexibility,toofferpeoplenewopportunities.Wewillbeabletoresolvethisproblemprimarily
bycreatingmorejobsatsmallandmedium-sizedbusinesses.Thenumberofpeople(whatIamgoingtosayis
veryimportant)employedatsmallandmedium-sizedbusinessesshouldgrowfromtoday's18million
byatleast1.4millionby2020andbymorethan3millionby2025.Itwillbedifficulttoincreasesupport
forsmallandmedium-sizedbusinesses,andstillhardertoconsistentlybuildanicheforitsoperation.Butit
needstobedone.
Ishouldaddthatourimportreplacementprogrammeisalsoaimedatmanufacturinggoodsthatare
competitiveontheglobalmarket.Andinthissense,Iwouldalsoliketostressthatimportreplacementis
animportantstageforexpandingexportsinsectorsotherthanrawmaterialsandfindingaplaceforour
companiesinglobalmanufacturingandtechnologicalalliancesandnotinsecondaryroles,butasstrong
andeffectivepartners.
Friends,wewillcontinuetofurtherliberaliseandimprovethebusinessclimate.Iknowagreatdealhasbeen
saidaboutthisatforumeventstodayandyesterday.Wewilltacklesystemicproblems,ofwhichwestillhave
plenty.Thisincludesimprovingtransparencyandbalancingrelationsbetweengovernmentagencies
andbusinesses.Theserelationsshouldbebuiltonunderstandingandmutualresponsibility,meticulous
observanceandcompliancewithlawsandrespectfortheinterestsofthestateandsociety,
andtheunconditionalvalueoftheinstitutionofprivateproperty.
Itisessentialtodrasticallyreduceillegalcriminalprosecutions.Furthermore,representativesofsecurity
andlawenforcementagenciesshouldbemadepersonallyliableforunjustifiedactionsleading
tothedestructionofabusinessenterprise.Ibelievethatthisliabilitycanbecriminal.
Irealizethatthisisaverysensitiveissue.Wecannotandshouldnotbindourlawenforcementagencieshand
andfoot.However,withoutadoubt,thereisaneedforbalancehere,forafirmbarriertoanyabusesofpower.
TheleadershipoftheProsecutorGeneralsOffice,theInvestigativeCommittee,theInteriorMinistry
andtheFederalSecurityServiceshouldcontinuouslymonitorthesituationonthegroundand,ifnecessary,
takemeasurestoimprovelegislation.
Iasktheworkinggrouponlawenforcementinentrepreneurialactivity,whichisheadedbyChiefofStaff
ofthePresidentialExecutiveOfficeSergeiIvanov,tofocusontheseissuesaswell.IshouldaddthatIhave
alreadysubmittedtoparliamentapackageofdraftlawspreparedbytheworkinggroup,designedtohumanise
theso-calledeconomicstatutes[oftheCriminalCode].Thatsaid,itisalsoimportanttoguaranteebusinesses
andallcitizenstherighttofairandimpartialdefenceincourt.
TheRussianjudicialcommunityhasdoneagooddealrecentlytoimprovethequalityofthecourtsystem.
ThemergingoftheSupremeandtheHigherArbitrationcourtshasplayedapositiveroleinensuring
theuniformityoflawenforcement.Ibelieveitisnecessarytomovefurthertowardenhancingtheresponsibility
ofjudgesandmakingthejudicialprocessmoretransparent.
Amajorroleincreatingafavorablebusinessenvironment,withoutadoubt,belongstoRussianregions.Iknow
thatthiswasdiscussedatforumeventsinthemorning,andtheresultsoftheannualnationalinvestment
climateratingswereannounced.Iwouldliketojoinincongratulatingthewinnersandremindyouthattheseare
TatarstanandtheBelgorodandKalugaregions.Iwouldalsoliketonotethesignificantprogressmade
bytheTula,Vladimir,Tyumen,Kirov,LipetskandOrelregions,andthecityofMoscow.
Whatstandsouthere?Judgingbytheresults,acoregroupofleadershasalreadyemerged,whoareinvariably
atthetopofrankings.Thenaturalquestionis:Wherearetheothers?IasktheGovernment,inconjunctionwith
businesscommunities,toconsideradditionalmechanismstorewardthebestregionaladministrativeteams.
Ontheotherhand,wewilltakeseriousmeasures,includingdismissals,withregardtoregionalleaderswhodo
notunderstandthatbusinesssupportisamajorresourceforregionalandnationaldevelopment.Iwouldlike
mycolleaguesintheregions,aboveall,regionalleaderstohearme.Wewillseriouslyanalysewhatis
happeninginthissphereineachRussianregionanddiscusstheissueindepthintheautumn.
Ladiesandgentlemen,IhavealreadytalkedaboutRussiasparticipationincooperativescientificresearch
projects,inparticularwithEuropeancountries.Itisessentialtoaddthatwehaveacoreadvantages
inphysics,mathematicsandchemistry.Asyouknow,recentlywehonouredscientistswhowontheNational
Award,whohavemadebrilliantbreakthroughsinbiology,geneticsandmedicine.Russianmicrobiologistshave
developed,forexample,aneffectivevaccineagainstEbola.Nationalcompaniesaregoingtobringanentireline
ofunmannedvehiclestothemarketandareworkingonenergydistributionandstorage,anddigitalsea
navigationsystems.Wehavepracticallyputinplaceatechnologicaldevelopmentmanagementsystem.What
doesthisentailandwhatwouldIliketosayinthiscontext?
First.TherecentlyformedTechnologyDevelopmentAgencywillhelpapplycurrentresearchtoreal
manufacturingandsetupjointventureswithforeignpartners.
Second.Anothermechanismwillbeinusestartingin2019.Majormanufacturerswillbemadelegallybound
tousethemostadvancedtechnologiesmeetingthehighestenvironmentalstandards.Hopefully,thiswillgive
aseriousboosttoindustrialmodernisation.Manyneighbouringcountriesintroducedsuchrequirementslong
ago.Wehavehadtoputoffthesechangesduetoproblemsintherealeconomicsectors,butwecantkeep
postponingitanymore.Ourbusinesscolleaguesknowthisandmustbeprepared.
Andfinally,third.TheNationalTechnologyInitiativecoversprojectsofthefuturebasedontechnologiesthatwill
createfundamentallynewmarketsinadecadeortwo.IwouldliketoasktheGovernmenttopromptlyremove
administrative,legislativeandotherobstaclesblockingthedevelopmentoffuturemarkets.Itisessential
tobackuptechnologicaldevelopmentwithfinancialresources.Therefore,thekeytaskfacingtheoverhauled
Vnesheconombankwillbetosupportlong-termprojects,attractiveprojectsinthishigh-techsector.
Weclearlyunderstandthatitispeoplewhocreateandusetechnologies.Talentedresearchers,qualified
engineersandworkersplayacrucialroleinmakingthenationaleconomycompetitive.Thereforeeducationis
somethingweshouldpayparticularattentiontointhenextfewyears.
Colleagues,obviouslytheissuesthatwearefacingcallfornewapproachestowarddevelopment
management,andherewearedeterminedtomakeactiveuseoftheprojectprinciple.Apresidentialcouncil
forstrategicdevelopmentandpriorityprojectswillbecreatedinthenearfuture.Itwillbeheadedbyyour
humbleservant,whilethecouncilpresidiumwillbeledbyPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedev.
Thecouncilwilldealwithkeyprojectsaimedateffectingstructuralchangesintheeconomyandthesocial
sphere,andincreasinggrowthrates.Ihavespokenaboutsomeoftheseprojectstoday:raisinglabour
productivity,thebusinessclimate,supportforsmallandmedium-sizedbusiness,andexportsupport,among
others.
primeminister,thoughinItaly,youareallowedtosayPresidentRenzialso.Bytheformatwehaveagreed
upon,whatIwilldoiswewillbeginthisdiscussionfirstwithourhostpresident,PresidentPutin,andthenIwill
widenthatconversationtoincludePrimeMinisterRenziandPresidentNazarbayev.Westartedalittlebitlate,
sowewillgoalittlebitlonger.
PresidentPutin,letmeaskyouaverysimplequestion.Since2014,youhavehadEuropeanUnionsanctions
andUSsanctionsagainstRussia.NATOhasannouncedjustthisweekthatitisgoingtobuildupforces
instatesthatborderRussia.Russiahasannounceditsownbuildup.Arewesettlingintoalow-grade,lower-
levelcoldwarbetweentheWestandRussia?
Iwilltellyou.Iwillhavetotakeyoubackintime.AfterthecollapseoftheSovietUnion,weexpectedoverall
prosperityandoveralltrust.Unfortunately,Russiahadtofacenumerouschallenges,speakinginmodernterms:
economic,socialanddomesticpolicy.Wecameupagainstseparatism,radicalism,aggressionofinternational
terror,becauseundoubtedlywewerefightingagainstAlQaedamilitantsintheCaucasus,itisanobviousfact,
andtherecanbenosecondthoughtsaboutit.Butinsteadofsupportfromourpartnersinourstrugglewith
theseproblems,wesadlycameacrosssomethingdifferentsupportfortheseparatists.Weweretold,Wedo
notacceptyourseparatistsatthetoppoliticallevel,onlyatthetechnological.
Verywell.Weappreciateit.Butwealsosawinformationsupport,financialsupportandadministrativebackup.
TheSovietUnionwasnomoretheWarsawPacthadceasedtoexist.Butforsomereason,NATOcontinues
toexpanditsinfrastructuretowardsRussiasborders.Itstartedlongbeforeyesterday.Montenegroisbecoming
a[NATO]member.WhoisthreateningMontenegro?Yousee,ourpositionisbeingtotallyignored.
Another,equallyimportant,orperhaps,themostimportantissueistheunilateralwithdrawal[oftheUS]from
theABMTreaty.TheABMTreatywasonceconcludedbetweentheSovietUnionandtheUnitedStates
foragoodreason.TworegionswereallowedtostayMoscowandthesiteofUSICBMsilos.
Thetreatywasdesignedtoprovideastrategicbalanceintheworld.However,theyunilaterallyquitthetreaty,
sayinginafriendlymanner,Thisisnotaimedagainstyou.Youwanttodevelopyouroffensivearms,andwe
assumeitisnotaimedagainstus.
Youknowwhytheysaidso?Itissimple:nobodyexpectedRussiaintheearly2000s,whenitwasstruggling
withitsdomesticproblems,tornapartbyinternalconflicts,politicalandeconomicproblems,tortured
byterrorists,torestoreitsdefencesector.Clearly,nobodyexpectedustobeabletomaintainourarsenals,let
alonehavenewstrategicweapons.Theythoughttheywouldbuilduptheirmissiledefenceforcesunilaterally
whileourarsenalswouldbeshrinking.
AllofthiswasdoneunderthepretextofcombattingtheIraniannuclearthreat.WhathasbecomeoftheIranian
nuclearthreatnow?Thereisnone,buttheprojectcontinues.Thisisthewayitis,stepbystep,oneafter
another,andsoon.
Thentheybegantosupportallkindsofcolourrevolutions,includingtheso-calledArabSpring.Theyfervently
supportedit.Howmanypositivetakesdidwehearonwhatwasgoingon?Whatdiditleadto?Chaos.
andifstepsintheinternationalarenathatareverysensitivetotheinternationalcommunityarenotcoordinated
thensuchconsequencesareinevitable.Conversely,ifwelistentooneanotherandseekoutabalance
ofinterests,thiswillnothappen.Yes,itisadifficultprocess,theprocessofreachingagreement,butitis
theonlypathtoacceptablesolutions.
Ibelievethatifweensuresuchcooperation,therewillbenotalkofacoldwar.Afterall,sincetheArabSpring,
theyhavealreadyapproachedourborders.WhydidtheyhavetosupportthecoupinUkraine?Ihaveoften
spokenaboutthis.Theinternalpoliticalsituationthereiscomplicatedandtheoppositionthatisinpowernow
wouldmostlikelyhavecometopowerdemocratically,throughelections.Thatsit.Wewouldhaveworkedwith
themaswehadwiththegovernmentthatwasinpowerbeforePresidentYanukovych.
speakingpopulationofsoutheasternUkraineandCrimea.Allforthesakeofwhat?Andafterwehadto,simply
hadtotakemeasurestoprotectcertainsocialgroups,theybegantoescalatethesituation,ratchetingup
tensions.Inmyopinion,thisisbeingdone,amongotherthings,tojustifytheexistenceoftheNorthAtlantic
bloc.Theyneedanexternaladversary,anexternalenemyotherwisewhyisthisorganisationnecessary
inthefirstplace?ThereisnoWarsawPact,noSovietUnionwhoisitdirectedagainst?
Ifwecontinuetoactaccordingtothislogic,escalating[tensions]andredoublingeffortstoscareeachother,
thenonedayitwillcometoacoldwar.Ourlogicistotallydifferent.Itisfocusedoncooperationandthesearch
forcompromise.(Applause.)
isthewayout?
IfwelookattheMinskagreements,thereareonlyafewpoints,andwediscussedthemallthroughthenight.
Whatwastheboneofcontention?Whataspectisofprimaryimportance?Andweagreedultimatelythat
politicalsolutionsthatensurethesecurityofpeoplelivinginDonbasswerethepriority.
Whatarethesepoliticalsolutions?Theyarelaiddownindetailintheagreements.Constitutionalamendments
thathadtobeadoptedbytheendof2015.Butwherearethey?Theyarenowheretobeseen.Thelaw
onaspecialstatusoftheseterritories,whichwecallunrecognizedrepublics,shouldhavebeenputinto
practice.Thelawhasbeenpassedbythecountrysparliamentbutstillhasntcomeintoeffect.Thereshould
havebeenanamnestylaw.ItwaspassedbytheUkrainianparliamentbutwasneversignedbythepresident,it
hasnoeffect.
Whatkindofelectionsarewetalkingabout?Whatsortofelectionprocesscanbeorganisedduringananti-
terroristoperation?Doanycountriesdothat?Wedonottalkaboutit,butdoesanyothercountryholdelection
campaignswhenananti-terroristoperationistakingplaceonitsterritory?
They[elections]havetobecancelledandourworkshouldfocusoneconomicandhumanitarianrestoration.
Nothingisbeingdone,nothingatall.Postponingtheseproblemsoveron-goingviolenceonthefrontlinesisjust
anexcuse.Whatishappeninginrealityisthatbothsidesareaccusingeachotherofopeningfire.Whydoyou
thinkitisseparatistswhoareshooting?Ifyouaskthem,theysay,ItisUkrainiangovernmentforces,
theUkrainianarmy.
Onesideopensfire,theothersiderespondsthatswhatexchangingfiremeans.Doyouthinkthisisagood
enoughreasontodelaypoliticalreforms?Onthecontrary,politicalreformsthatwillconstitutethefoundation
ofafinalsettlementonsecurityareapressingpriority.
reinforcedtothepointofauthorizingOSCEobserverstocarryfirearms.Otherthingscanbedonetoimprove
security.Butwecannotaffordtocontinueputtingoffkeypoliticaldecisionbycitingthelackofsecurity
inthearea.Thatsit.(Applause.)
FareedZakaria:Therearesomanyareastocoverwithyou,MrPresident,soletmegototheMiddle
East,whereRussiahashadaforcefulinterventiontobolstertheAssadregime.PresidentAssadnowsays
thathisgoalistotakebackeverysquareinchofhisterritory.DoyoubelievethatthesolutioninSyriais
thattheAssadregimeshouldtakebackandgoverneverysquareinchofSyria?
VladimirPutin:IthinkthattheproblemsofSyria,ofcourse,concernprimarilytheanti-terroriststruggle,
butthereismoretoit.ItgoeswithoutsayingthattheSyrianconflictisrootedincontradictionswithin
Syriansociety,andPresidentBasharal-Assadunderstandsthisverywell.Thetaskisnotjusttoexpand
controlovervariousterritories,althoughthisisveryimportant.Thepointistoensuretheconfidence
oftheentiresocietyandtrustbetweendifferentpartsofthissociety,andtoestablishonthisfoundation
amodernandefficientgovernmentthatwillbetrustedbythecountrysentirepopulation.Andpolitical
negotiationsaretheonlyroadtothis.Wehaveurgedthismorethanonce.Presidental-Assadalsospoke
aboutthisheacceptsthisprocess.
Whatneedstobedonetoday?ItisnecessarytojoinmoreactivelytheprocessofformingthenewConstitution
andtoconduct,onthisbasis,futureelections,bothpresidentialandparliamentary.WhenPresidental-Assad
wasinMoscow,wespokeaboutthiswithhimandhefullyagreedwiththis.Moreover,itisextremelyimportant
toconducttheelectionsunderstrictinternationalcontrol,withtheparticipationoftheUnitedNations.
YesterdaywediscussedthisissueindetailwithMrdeMisturaandtheUNSecretary-General.Theyallagree
withthis,butweneedaction.Wehopeverymuchthatourpartners,primarilyfromtheUnitedStates,willwork
withtheiralliesthatsupporttheoppositiontoencourageconstructivecooperationwiththeSyrianauthorities.
Whatdowemeanbythis?Ingeneral,whenIaskmycolleagues:Whyareyoudoingthis?theyreply:
Toasserttheprinciplesofdemocracy.Presidental-Assadsregimeisnotdemocraticandthetriumph
ofdemocracymustbeensured.Fine.Isdemocracyeverywherethere?No,notyetbutdemocracyshould
existinSyria.Ok.Andhowdoyoumakesocietydemocratic?Isitonlypossibletoachievethisbyforce
ofarmsorsimplybyforce?No,thismaybedoneonlywiththehelpofdemocraticinstitutions
andprocedures.Andwhataretheyallabout?Thereisnomoredemocraticwayofformingagovernmentthan
electionsonthebasisoffundamentallaw:aConstitutionthatisformulatedinaclearway,thatistransparent
andacceptedbytheoverwhelmingmajorityofsociety.PasstheConstitutionandholdelectionsonitsbasis.
Whatsbadaboutthis,especiallyiftheyareheldunderinternationalcontrol?
Occasionallywehearthatsomecountriesoftheregiondonotfullyunderstandwhatdemocracyis.Dowe
wanttoreplaceoneundemocraticregimewithanotherundemocraticone?Andifwestillwanttopromote
theprincipleofdemocracyletsdothisbydemocraticmeans.Butconsideringthisisacomplicatedprocess
andresultswillnotcometomorroworthedayaftertomorrowbutwillrequiretime,whilewestillneedtodo
somethingtoday,Iagreewiththeproposalsofourpartners,primarilyourAmericanpartnersthatsuggest
(Idontknow,maybeImsayingtoomuchalthough,ontheotherhand,thisUSproposalisknownintheregion,
andthenegotiatorsofbothsidesthegovernmentandtheoppositionarefamiliarwithitandIconsiderit
absolutelyacceptable),theysuggestedconsideringthepossibilityofbringingrepresentativesoftheopposition
intoexistingpowerstructures,forinstance,theGovernment.Itisnecessarytothinkaboutwhatpowersthis
Governmentwillhave.
However,itisimportantnottogotoofar.Itisnecessarytoproceedfromthecurrentrealitiesandtorefrainfrom
declaringunfeasible,unrealisticgoals.ManyofourpartnersaresayingthatAssadshouldgo.Todaytheyare
sayingno,letsrestructuregoverninginstitutionsinsuchandsuchaway,butinpracticaltermsitwillalso
meanhisdeparture.Butthisisalsounrealistic.Therefore,itisnecessarytoactcarefully,stepbystep,
graduallywinningtheconfidenceofallsidestotheconflict.
Ifthishappens,andIthinkthiswillhappeninanyeventandthesoonerthebetter,itwillbepossibletogo
furtherandspeakbothaboutsubsequentelectionsandafinalsettlement.Themainpointistoprevent
thecountryscollapse.Andifthingscontinuetogoastheyaretoday,collapsewillbecomeinevitable.Andthis
istheworst-casescenariobecausewecannotassumethatafterthecountryscollapsesomequasi-state
formationswillco-existinpeaceandharmony.No,thiswillbeadestabilisingfactorfortheregionandtherest
oftheworld.
this!Dontyou?
Weneverinterfereintheinternalpoliticsofothercountries,especiallytheUnitedStates.However,wewillwork
withanypresidentthattheUSpeoplevotefor.AlthoughIdonotthink,bytheway,thatWell,theylecture
everyoneonhowtoliveandondemocracy.Now,doyoureallythinkpresidentialelectionsthereare
democratic?Look,twiceinUShistoryapresidentwaselectedbyamajorityofelectors,butstandingbehind
thoseelectorswasasmallernumberofvoters.Isthatdemocracy?Andwhen(sometimeswehavedebates
withourcolleaguesweneveraccuseanyoneofanything,wesimplyhavedebates)wearetold:Donot
meddleinouraffairs.Mindyourownbusiness.Thisishowwedothings,wefeellikesaying:Wellthen,do
notmeddleinouraffairs.Whydoyou?Putyourownhouseinorderfirst.
internationalobserversawayfrompollingstationsduringelectioncampaigns.USprosecutorsthreatentojail
them.However,thesearetheirownproblemsthisishowtheydothingsandtheylikeit.Americaisagreat
power,todayperhapstheonlysuperpower.Weacceptthis.WewanttoworkwiththeUnitedStatesandwe
arepreparedto.Nomatterhowtheseelectionsgo,eventuallytheywilltakeplace.Therewillbea[new]head
ofstatewithextensivepowers.Therearecomplicatedinternalpoliticalandeconomicprocessesatwork
intheUnitedStates.TheworldneedsapowerfulcountryliketheUnitedStates,andwealsoneedit.Butwe
donotneedittocontinuouslyinterfereinouraffairs,tellingushowtolive,andpreventingEuropefrombuilding
arelationshipwithus.
HowarethesanctionsthatyouhavementionedaffectingtheUnitedStates?Innowaywhatsoever.Itcouldnot
carelessaboutthesesanctionsbecausetheconsequencesofouractionsinresponsehavenoimpactonit.
TheyimpactEuropebutnottheUnitedStates.Zeroeffect.However,theAmericansaretellingtheirpartners:
Bepatient.Whyshouldthey?Idonotunderstand.Iftheywantto,letthem.
oftheAmericanpeople,inthehopethatitwillbeapersonwhoseekstodeveloprelationswithourcountry
andhelpbuildamoresecureworld.
Iwasnotaforeignminister,butSergeiLavrovwas.Hewillsoontie[SovietForeignMinisterAndrei]Gromyko.
(AddressingSergeiLavrov.)Howlonghaveyoubeeninoffice?
IworkedwithBillClinton,althoughforaveryshorttime,andwehadaverygoodrelationship.Icanevensay
thatIamgratefultohimforcertainmomentsasIwasenteringthebigstageinpolitics.Onseveraloccasions,
heshowedsignsofattention,respectformepersonally,aswellasforRussia.IrememberthisandIam
gratefultohim.
AboutMsClinton.PerhapsshehasherownviewonthedevelopmentofRussian-USrelations.Youknow,there
issomethingIwouldliketodraw[your]attentionto,whichhasnothingtodowithRussian-USrelationsorwith
nationalpolitics.Itisrelated,rather,topersonnelpolicy.
Inmyexperience,Ihaveoftenseenwhathappenswithpeoplebeforetheytakeonacertainjobandafterward.
Often,youcannotrecognisethem,becauseoncetheyreachanewlevelofresponsibilitytheybegintotalk
andthinkdifferently,theyevenlookdifferent.Weactontheassumptionthatthesenseofresponsibility
oftheUSheadofstate,theheadofthecountryonwhichagreatdealintheworlddependstoday,thatthis
senseofresponsibilitywillencouragethenewlyelectedpresidenttocooperatewithRussiaand,Iwouldlike
torepeat,buildamoresecureworld.
FareedZakaria:PresidentPutin,letmefinallyaskyouonequestionaboutnewsreportsaboutRussian
athletes.TherearenowtwomajorinvestigationsthathaveshownthatRussianathleteshaveengaged
indopingonamassivescale,andthattherehasbeenasystematicevasionanddoctoringoftestingandlab
samples.AndIwasjustwonderingwhatyoureactiontothesereportsis.
VladimirPutin:Ididnotunderstandwhatkindofprogrammeitistotamperwiththesamplesthatwere
collectedfortests?Ifsamplesarecollectedtheyareimmediatelytransferredtointernationalorganisations
forstorageandwehavenothingtodowiththem.Samplesarecollectedandtakensomewhere,
toLausanneorwherever,Idonotknowwhere,buttheyarenotonRussianterritory.Theycanbe
opened,re-checked,andthisiswhatspecialistsaredoingnow.
DopingisnotonlyaRussianproblem.Itisaproblemoftheentiresportsworld.Ifsomebodytriestopoliticise
somethinginthissphere,Ithinkthisisabigmistake,becausejustlikeculture,forexample,sportcannotbe
politicised.Thesearethebridgesthatbringpeople,nationsandstatesclosertogether.Thisistheway
toapproachit,nottrytoforgesomeanti-Russianoranti-whateverpolicyonthisbasis.
AsfortheRussianauthorities,Icanassureyou,wearecategoricallyagainstalldopingforseveralreasons.
First,asaformeramateurathlete,Icantellyou,andIthinkthattheoverwhelmingmajorityofpeoplewillagree
withthis:ifweknowthereisdoping,itsnotinterestingtowatchtheeventmillionsoffansloseinterest
inthesport.
Second,nolessimportant,andmaybeevenmostimportant,thereisthehealthoftheathletesthemselves.
Youcantjustifyanythingthatdamageshealth.Thisiswhywehavecombatedandwillcontinuetocombat
dopinginsportonthenationallevel.
Furthermore,asfarasIknow,theProsecutorGeneralsOfficeandtheInvestigativeCommitteehavebeen
closelylookingintoallfactsreportedinthemedia,amongothers.Simply,thismustnotbeturnedinto
acampaign,especiallyacampaigndisparagingsport,includingRussiansport.
Next,thethirdpointIwouldliketomake.Thereisalegalconceptthatsaysresponsibilitycanonlybe
individual.Collectiveresponsibilitycannotbeimposedonallathletesorathletesofacertainsportsfederationif
certainindividualshavebeencaughtdoping.Anentireteamcannotbeheldresponsibleforthosewhohave
committedthisviolation.Ibelievethatthisisanabsolutelynatural,correctapproach.
However,dopingisnottheonlyproblemtoday.Thereareplentyofproblemsinsport.Euro2016isunderway.
Ibelievethatlessattentionisbeingpaidtofootballthantobrawlingbetweenfans.ThisisverysadandIregret
this,butheretooweshouldalwaysproceedfromsomegeneralcriteria.Toreiterate,responsibility
formisconductshouldbeindividualisedasmuchaspossibleandtheapproachtowardperpetratorsshouldbe
thesame.
Euro2016beganwithahigh-profilecase:afightbetweenRussianandBritishfans.Thisisabsolutely
outrageous.Granted,Idonotknowhow200RussianfanswereabletopummelseveralthousandBritons.Ido
notunderstand.Butinanycase,lawenforcementagenciesshouldtakethesameapproachtowardall
perpetrators.
Thisisthewaywehaveorganisedthisworkandwillcontinuetocombatdopingandenforcedisciplineamong
fans.Wewillworkwiththesefanassociations.Iverymuchhopethatthereareplentyofintelligent,sensible
peopleamongthefans,whoreallylovesportandwhounderstandthatviolationsdonothingtosupporttheir
teambut,onthecontrary,causedamagetotheteamandtosport.However,agreatdealhasyettobedone
here,includinginconjunctionwithour[foreign]colleagues.
Iwouldliketostressthattherehasbeenabsolutelynosupportandcanbeabsolutelynosupportforviolations
insport,letalonedopingviolations,atthestatelevel.Wehaveworkedandwillcontinuetoworkwithall
internationalorganisationsinthissphere.
<>
http://slon.ru/posts/69481
ThisisthefirstSt.PetersburgforumnotshunnedbyWesternpoliticalelitesinacoupleofyearsRussiawantstoshowWestern
businessthattherearepossibilitiesforreformThesanctionshavenotbeenremoved,theMinskagreementsnotfulfilled,butthere
hasbeenacertainloweringoftensionsTheKremliniscautiouslyrehabilitatingthesystemicliberalsKudrinhasinformalstatus
asthemainreformer,withassistancefromGrefVlast,notveryconvincingly,ismakingnoisesaboutimprovingconditionsfor
privatebusinessGestureshavebeenmadetoeasetensionswiththeWestSavchenko,forexample,wasreleasedtheresa
certainwearinesswithconfrontationTherehasbeensomemovementawayfromtheconservativetrenddomestically
Pavlenskiyhasbeenreleased(http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-pavlensky-artist-fined-cultural-site-fsb/27786266.html)...The
messagetoWesterninvestorsisclearRussiadoesnotwanttobeNorthKoreaorevenBelarusRussianeedsdirectinvestment
andbudgetproblemsarepushingvlasttowardmakingapoliticaldecisiononstructuralreforms
ThewearinessofbothRussiaandtheWestwithsanctionsinthemid-termcouldatleastleadtotheirweakening.Thedeclineofthe
economyhassloweddownandsomeoptimistsexpectgrowthbytheendoftheyearTheUkrainecrisiscouldberoutinized,
pushedtothebackburnerinfavorofcooperatingoncombattingterrorismPutinwantstolowertensionswiththeAmericans
Yetthearbitrarybehaviorofcourts,taxterrorism,corruption,andnightmaringbusinesseshaveonlybecomeworseAverage
investorswithoutspecialconnectionsarewaitingforasignofvlastsintensionsandofamoretransparenteconomicpolicyIts
doubtfulthatwillhappenandforeignbusinesssurelyunderstandsthatForeigninvestorswanttoknowaboutconcrete
economicdevelopmentplans,taxpolicy,aboutwhetherGlazyevistakenseriouslyandwhetherKudrinisaroundjustforwindow
dressing.Arethesilovikytakingpartindiscussionsoneconomicpolicytemporarilyoristheyheretostay?
Putinwantstheeconomytoimprove,butwithoutchanginganythinginstitutionallyThewaytohaveinfluenceinRussiais
througharelationshipwithoneofPutinsfriends,whooftenhavemoreinfluencethanministers.Soinvestorswanttoknowwhata
particularpersonsaccesstoPutinreallyis,whatkindofinfluenceapersonmighthaveonaministerAndinvestorsseeasociety
thatisdistrustful,evenhatefultowardtheWest,onewhereoppositionpoliticalfiguresareindanger,whereonehastobewaryof
provocationsbycompetitorsAndtheYukoscase,theMagnitskiyaffair,andthecaseagainsttheownersandmanagersof
Domodedovoairportarestillverymuchonthemindsofforeigninvestors
InRussia,ifyoumoveoneway,youloseyourbusiness,anotherandyouloseyourlife.Ifyoumovejustright,youcanbecomea
billionaire
http://vk.com/id244477574?w=wall244477574_18809/all
RussiasconciliatorygesturestoAmericaarebeingmadefortworeasons:One,becauseitistheAmericansblockingEuropean
revisionismregardingRussiaandtwo,becauseMoscowisworriedaboutreputationalscandalstheremaybemoretocome,
provokingaspiltintheRussianelite
HTTP://WWW.YAHOO.COM/NEWS/GERMANY-SLAMS-NATO-WARMONGERING-RUSSIA-115515814.HTML?REF=GS
GermanForeignMinisterFrank-WalterSteinmeierhascriticisedNATOforhavingabellicosepolicytowardsRussia,describingitas
"warmongering",theGermandailyBildreported.
SteinmeierpointedtothedeploymentofNATOtroopsnearborderswithRussiainthemilitaryalliance'sBalticandeastEuropean
memberstates.
"Whatweshouldavoidtodayisinflamingthesituationbywarmongeringandstompingboots,"SteinmeiertoldBildinaninterviewto
bepublishedSunday.
"Anyonewhothinksyoucanincreasesecurityinthealliancewithsymbolicparadesoftanksneartheeasternborders,ismistaken,"
Germany'stopdiplomatadded.
NATOhadannouncedonMondaythatitwoulddeployfourbattalionstoEstonia,Latvia,LithuaniaandPolandtocounteramore
assertiveRussia,aheadofalandmarksummitinWarsawnextmonth.
AllfourcountrieswereonceruledfromMoscowandremaindeeplysuspiciousofRussianintentions,especiallyafterRussia's
annexationofCrimeafromUkrainein2014.
InaninterviewwithBildonThursday,NATOchiefJensStoltenbergsaidRussiaisseekingtocreate"azoneofinfluencethrough
militarymeans".
"WeareobservingmassivemilitarisationatNATOborders--intheArctic,intheBaltic,fromtheBlackSeatotheMediterranean
Sea,"hetoldthenewspaper.
StoltenberghasstressedthatNATOdoesnotseekconfrontationwithRussiaandwantsaconstructivedialoguebutthatitwould
defendthe28alliesagainstanythreat
RussiabitterlyopposesNATO'sexpansionintoitsSoviet-erasatellitesandlastmonthsaiditwouldcreatethreenewdivisionsinits
southwestregiontomeetwhatitdescribedasadangerousmilitarybuild-upalongitsborders.
Senttime: 06/17/201601:12:04PM
To: Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>
Subject: Re:PutinsaysacceptsU.S.issolesuperpower,dilutesTrumppraise|Reuters
SentfrommyiPad
OnJun17,2016,at4:11PM,Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>wrote:
FranciscoaskedthatJoshbeputonyourlist.Isaidno.
From:Bob[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Friday,June17,20164:02PM
To:Williams,JohnPFishel,Eugene
Subject:PutinsaysacceptsU.S.issolesuperpower,dilutesTrumppraise|Reuters
http://redirect.state.sbu/?url=http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-forum-putin-usa-idUSKCN0Z31G4
RELATEDCOVERAGE
PresidentVladimirPutinsaidonFridayheacceptedtheUnitedStateswasprobablystilltheworld'ssolesuperpower
andhewasreadytoworkwithwhoeverwonthepresidency,butdidn'twanttobetoldhowtolivebyAmericans.
Putin'scommentsfollowarockyperiodinU.S.-Russiarelations,whichhavebeenunderminedbydisagreementsover
issuessuchasUkraineandSyria.
PutinreiteratedcriticismofwhathesaidwasthemisguidedroleoftheUnitedStatesinUkraine'saffairsandsaidhe
opposedwhathecastasU.S.effortstopreventRussiarepairingitsrelationswiththeEuropeanUnion.
Buthehadsomepositivewordstoo.
"Americaisagreatpower-todayprobablytheonlysuperpower.Weacceptthat,"PutinsaidattheStPetersburg
InternationalEconomicForum."WewanttoandarereadytoworkwiththeUnitedStates."
AskedaboutDonaldTrump,PutinappearedtoplaydownpositivecommentshehadmadeabouttheRepublican
contenderinthepast,sayingthosehadbeenmisinterpreted.
InDecember,PutindescribedTrumpas"veryflamboyant","verytalented"and"anabsoluteleaderinthepresidential
race".
Thosecomments,alongwithwarmwordsfromTrumpaboutPutin,havefueledspeculationtheKremlinwouldbe
pleasedtoseeTrumpintheWhiteHouse.
ButonFridayPutinsaidhehadonlydescribedTrumpas"flamboyant".
"Heis,isn'the?"saidPutinwithasmile."Ididnotgiveanyotherassessmentofhim."
PutinsaidhewelcomedTrump'sdesiretorestoreU.S.-Russiaties."What'swrongwiththat?"Putinasked,drawing
applausefromtheaudience.
HeappearedkeenhowevertohedgeRussia'sbetsbyavoidingtheimpressionhewastakingsides,andalso
emphasizedhis"warmrelations"withformerU.S.PresidentBillClinton,whosewifeHillaryisrunningfortheWhite
House.
PutinsaidhewasgratefulfortheattentionandrespectBillClintonhadshowntoRussiaandPutinpersonally.
HehadlesstosayaboutHillaryClintonthough,sayinghehadneverworkedwithherdirectly.
(ReportingbyChristianLowe,AlexanderWinning,KatyaGolubkovaandElenaFabrichnayaWritingbyJasonBush
andPolinaDevittEditingbyAndrewOsborn)
SentfrommyiPad
IN18June16.docx
Internet Notes 18 June 2016

More on the St. Petersburg Economic Forum (Putins speech and Q&A: Russia/NATO/ A new Cold
War?; Ukraine/the Minsk agreements; Syria/Assad/Elections; US presidential elections/Russia-US;
The doping scandal/Russian soccer fans).................................................................................................. 1
Stanovaya on the Economic Forum and foreign business .............................................................. 14
Solovey on gestures to America .......................................................................................................... 15
German foreign minister on NATO warmongering .................................................................... 15
More on the St. Petersburg Economic Forum (Putins speech and Q&A: Russia/NATO/ A
new Cold War?; Ukraine/the Minsk agreements; Syria/Assad/Elections; US presidential
elections/Russia-US; The doping scandal/Russian soccer fans)
See yesterdays notes.
I did a brief summary of Putins speech and included a link to the Russian in yesterdays notes.
Here are excerpts from an English version of the speech:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52178
The structural problems accumulated by the global economy still persist, and we have not yet put our
economy on the growth trajectory.
Incidentally, current geopolitical tensions are related, to some extent, to economic uncertainty
and the exhausting of the old sources of growth. There is a risk it may increase or even be artificially
provoked. It is our common interest to find a creative and constructive way out of this situation.
The worlds leading economies are looking for sources of growth, and they are looking to capitalise
on the enormous existing and growing potential of digital and industrial technologies, robotics, energy,
biotechnology, medicine and other fields. Discoveries in these areas can lead to true technological
revolutions, to an explosive growth of labour productivity. This is already happening and will happen
inevitably; there is impending restructuring of entire industries, the devaluation of many facilities
and assets. This will alter the demand for skills and competencies, and competition will escalate in both
traditional and emerging markets.
In fact, even today we can see attempts to secure or even monopolise the benefits of next generation
technologies. This, I think, is the motive behind the creation of restricted areas with regulatory barriers
to reduce the cross-flow of breakthrough technologies to other regions of the world with fairly tight control
over cooperation chains for maximum gain from technological advances. We have discussed this with our
colleagues; some say it is possible. I think not. One can control the spread of certain technologies
for a while, but in today's world it would be next to impossible to keep them in a contained area, even
IN18June16.docx
a large area. Yet, these efforts could lead to basic sciences, now open to sharing of knowledge
and information through joint projects, getting closed too, with separation barriers coming up.
Over 40 states and international organisations have expressed the desire to establish a free trade zone
with the Eurasian Economic Union. Our partners and we think that the EAEU can become one
of the centres of a greater emergent integration area. Among other benefits, we can address ambitious
technological problems within its framework, promote technological progress and attract new members.
We discussed this in Astana quite recently. Now we propose considering the prospects for more
extensive Eurasian partnership involving the EAEU and countries with which we already have close
partnership China, India, Pakistan and Iran and certainly our CIS partners, and other interested
countries and associations.
As early as June we, along with our Chinese colleagues, are planning to start official talks
on the formation of comprehensive trade and economic partnership in Eurasia with the participation
of the European Union states and China. I expect that this will become one of the first steps toward
the formation of a major Eurasian partnership. We will certainly resume the discussion of this major
project at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok in early September. Colleagues, I would like
to take this opportunity to invite all of you to take part in it.
Friends, the project I have just mentioned the greater Eurasia project is, of course, open for Europe,
and I am convinced that such cooperation may be mutually beneficial. Despite all of the well-known
problems in our relations, the European Union remains Russias key trade and economic partner. It is our
next-door neighbour and we are not indifferent to what is happening in the lives of our neighbours,
European countries and the European economy.
The challenge of the technological revolution and structural changes are no less urgent for the EU than
for Russia. I also understand our European partners when they talk about the complicated decisions
for Europe that were made at the talks on the formation of the Trans-Atlantic partnership. Obviously,
Europe has a vast potential and a stake on just one regional association clearly narrows its opportunities.
Under the circumstances, it is difficult for Europe to maintain balance and preserve space for a gainful
manoeuvre.
As the recent meetings with representatives of the German and French business circles have showed,
European business is willing and ready to cooperate with this country. Politicians should meet businesses
halfway by displaying wisdom, and a far-sighted and flexible approach. We must return trust to Russian-
European relations and restore the level of our cooperation.
We remember how it all started. Russia did not initiate the current breakdown, disruption, problems
and sanctions. All our actions have been exclusively reciprocal. But we dont hold a grudge, as they say,
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and are ready to meet our European partners halfway. However, this can by no means be a one-way
street.
Let me repeat that we are interested in Europeans joining the project for a major Eurasian partnership.
In this context we welcome the initiative of the President of Kazakhstan on holding consultations between
the Eurasian Economic Union and the EU. Yesterday we discussed this issue at the meeting with
the President of the European Commission.
Russia has managed to resolve the most urgent current problems in the economy. We hope growth
will resume in the near future. We have maintained reserves and substantially reduced capital drain
by five times compared with the first quarter of 2016. Inflation is going down as well. It has fallen almost
in half if we compare several months in 20142015 with the same period in 20152016. I believe that it is
possible to bring inflation down to 45 percent as early as in the mid-term perspective.
In addition, it is necessary to gradually decrease the budget deficit and the dependence on revenues from
hydrocarbons and other raw materials. This includes cutting our non-oil and gas deficit at least in half
in the next 5 to 7 years.
The current slowdown is a global trend.
A key factor that predetermines the overall competitiveness of the economy, market dynamics, GDP
growth and higher wages is labor productivity. We need higher labor productivity at large and medium-
sized enterprises: in industry, in the construction and the transport sectors and in agriculture no less
than 5 percent a year. This appears to be a challenging and even unattainable goal, if we look at what is
happening here today. At the same time, the examples of numerous enterprises, as well as of entire
manufacturing sectors, such as the aircraft industry, the chemical industry, pharmaceutics and agriculture,
show that this goal is quite feasible and realistic.
We will develop legislation, tax regulators and technical standards to incentivise companies to raise
labour productivity and introduce labour and energy saving technology. With the growth of labour
productivity, inefficient employment will inevitably shrink, which means we will need to substantially
increase the labour markets flexibility, to offer people new opportunities. We will be able to resolve this
problem primarily by creating more jobs at small and medium-sized businesses. The number of people
(what I am going to say is very important) employed at small and medium-sized businesses should grow
from today's 18 million by at least 1.4 million by 2020 and by more than 3 million by 2025. It will be difficult
to increase support for small and medium-sized businesses, and still harder to consistently build a niche
for its operation. But it needs to be done.
I should add that our import replacement programme is also aimed at manufacturing goods that are
competitive on the global market. And in this sense, I would also like to stress that import replacement is
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an important stage for expanding exports in sectors other than raw materials and finding a place for our
companies in global manufacturing and technological alliances and not in secondary roles, but
as strong and effective partners.
Friends, we will continue to further liberalise and improve the business climate. I know a great deal has
been said about this at forum events today and yesterday. We will tackle systemic problems, of which we
still have plenty. This includes improving transparency and balancing relations between government
agencies and businesses. These relations should be built on understanding and mutual responsibility,
meticulous observance and compliance with laws and respect for the interests of the state and society,
and the unconditional value of the institution of private property.
It is essential to drastically reduce illegal criminal prosecutions. Furthermore, representatives of security
and law enforcement agencies should be made personally liable for unjustified actions leading
to the destruction of a business enterprise. I believe that this liability can be criminal.
I realize that this is a very sensitive issue. We cannot and should not bind our law enforcement agencies
hand and foot. However, without a doubt, there is a need for balance here, for a firm barrier to any
abuses of power. The leadership of the Prosecutor Generals Office, the Investigative Committee,
the Interior Ministry and the Federal Security Service should continuously monitor the situation
on the ground and, if necessary, take measures to improve legislation.
I ask the working group on law enforcement in entrepreneurial activity, which is headed by Chief of Staff
of the Presidential Executive Office Sergei Ivanov, to focus on these issues as well. I should add that
I have already submitted to parliament a package of draft laws prepared by the working group, designed
to humanise the so-called economic statutes [of the Criminal Code]. That said, it is also important
to guarantee businesses and all citizens the right to fair and impartial defence in court.
The Russian judicial community has done a good deal recently to improve the quality of the court system.
The merging of the Supreme and the Higher Arbitration courts has played a positive role in ensuring
the uniformity of law enforcement. I believe it is necessary to move further toward enhancing
the responsibility of judges and making the judicial process more transparent.
A major role in creating a favorable business environment, without a doubt, belongs to Russian regions.
I know that this was discussed at forum events in the morning, and the results of the annual national
investment climate ratings were announced. I would like to join in congratulating the winners and remind
you that these are Tatarstan and the Belgorod and Kaluga regions. I would also like to note the significant
progress made by the Tula, Vladimir, Tyumen, Kirov, Lipetsk and Orel regions, and the city of Moscow.
What stands out here? Judging by the results, a core group of leaders has already emerged, who are
invariably at the top of rankings. The natural question is: Where are the others? I ask the Government,
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in conjunction with business communities, to consider additional mechanisms to reward the best regional
administrative teams. On the other hand, we will take serious measures, including dismissals, with regard
to regional leaders who do not understand that business support is a major resource for regional
and national development. I would like my colleagues in the regions, above all, regional leaders to hear
me. We will seriously analyse what is happening in this sphere in each Russian region and discuss
the issue in depth in the autumn.
Ladies and gentlemen, I have already talked about Russias participation in cooperative scientific
research projects, in particular with European countries. It is essential to add that we have a core
advantages in physics, mathematics and chemistry. As you know, recently we honoured scientists who
won the National Award, who have made brilliant breakthroughs in biology, genetics and medicine.
Russian microbiologists have developed, for example, an effective vaccine against Ebola. National
companies are going to bring an entire line of unmanned vehicles to the market and are working
on energy distribution and storage, and digital sea navigation systems. We have practically put in place
a technological development management system. What does this entail and what would I like to say
in this context?
First. The recently formed Technology Development Agency will help apply current research to real
manufacturing and set up joint ventures with foreign partners.
Second. Another mechanism will be in use starting in 2019. Major manufacturers will be made legally
bound to use the most advanced technologies meeting the highest environmental standards. Hopefully,
this will give a serious boost to industrial modernisation. Many neighbouring countries introduced such
requirements long ago. We have had to put off these changes due to problems in the real economic
sectors, but we cant keep postponing it any more. Our business colleagues know this and must be
prepared.
And finally, third. The National Technology Initiative covers projects of the future based on technologies
that will create fundamentally new markets in a decade or two. I would like to ask the Government
to promptly remove administrative, legislative and other obstacles blocking the development of future
markets. It is essential to back up technological development with financial resources. Therefore, the key
task facing the overhauled Vnesheconombank will be to support long-term projects, attractive projects
in this high-tech sector.
We clearly understand that it is people who create and use technologies. Talented researchers, qualified
engineers and workers play a crucial role in making the national economy competitive. Therefore
education is something we should pay particular attention to in the next few years.
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Colleagues, obviously the issues that we are facing call for new approaches toward development
management, and here we are determined to make active use of the project principle. A presidential
council for strategic development and priority projects will be created in the near future. It will be headed
by your humble servant, while the council presidium will be led by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.
The council will deal with key projects aimed at effecting structural changes in the economy and the social
sphere, and increasing growth rates. I have spoken about some of these projects today: raising labour
productivity, the business climate, support for small and medium-sized business, and export support,
among others.
Plenary session moderator, CNN host Fareed Zakaria: Thank you to all three of you: two presidents,
one prime minister, though in Italy, you are allowed to say President Renzi also. By the format we have
agreed upon, what I will do is we will begin this discussion first with our host president, President Putin,
and then I will widen that conversation to include Prime Minister Renzi and President Nazarbayev. We
started a little bit late, so we will go a little bit longer.
President Putin, let me ask you a very simple question. Since 2014, you have had European Union
sanctions and US sanctions against Russia. NATO has announced just this week that it is going to build
up forces in states that border Russia. Russia has announced its own buildup. Are we settling into a low-
grade, lower-level cold war between the West and Russia?
Vladimir Putin: I do not want to believe that we are moving towards another Cold War, and I am sure
nobody wants this. We certainly do not. There is no need for this. The main logic behind international
relations development is that no matter how dramatic it might seem, it is not the logic of global
confrontation. What is the root of the problem?
I will tell you. I will have to take you back in time. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we expected
overall prosperity and overall trust. Unfortunately, Russia had to face numerous challenges, speaking
in modern terms: economic, social and domestic policy. We came up against separatism, radicalism,
aggression of international terror, because undoubtedly we were fighting against Al Qaeda militants
in the Caucasus, it is an obvious fact, and there can be no second thoughts about it. But instead
of support from our partners in our struggle with these problems, we sadly came across something
different support for the separatists. We were told, We do not accept your separatists at the top political
level, only at the technological.
Very well. We appreciate it. But we also saw information support, financial support and administrative
backup.
Later, after we tackled those problems, went through serious hardships, we came to face another thing.
The Soviet Union was no more; the Warsaw Pact had ceased to exist. But for some reason, NATO
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continues to expand its infrastructure towards Russias borders. It started long before yesterday.
Montenegro is becoming a [NATO] member. Who is threatening Montenegro? You see, our position is
being totally ignored.
Another, equally important, or perhaps, the most important issue is the unilateral withdrawal [of the US]
from the ABM Treaty. The ABM Treaty was once concluded between the Soviet Union and the United
States for a good reason. Two regions were allowed to stay Moscow and the site of US ICBM silos.
The treaty was designed to provide a strategic balance in the world. However, they unilaterally quit
the treaty, saying in a friendly manner, This is not aimed against you. You want to develop your offensive
arms, and we assume it is not aimed against us.
You know why they said so? It is simple: nobody expected Russia in the early 2000s, when it was
struggling with its domestic problems, torn apart by internal conflicts, political and economic problems,
tortured by terrorists, to restore its defence sector. Clearly, nobody expected us to be able to maintain our
arsenals, let alone have new strategic weapons. They thought they would build up their missile defence
forces unilaterally while our arsenals would be shrinking.
All of this was done under the pretext of combatting the Iranian nuclear threat. What has become
of the Iranian nuclear threat now? There is none, but the project continues. This is the way it is, step
by step, one after another, and so on.
Then they began to support all kinds of colour revolutions, including the so-called Arab Spring. They
fervently supported it. How many positive takes did we hear on what was going on? What did it lead to?
Chaos.
I am not interested in laying blame now. I simply want to say that if this policy of unilateral actions
continues and if steps in the international arena that are very sensitive to the international community are
not coordinated then such consequences are inevitable. Conversely, if we listen to one another and seek
out a balance of interests, this will not happen. Yes, it is a difficult process, the process of reaching
agreement, but it is the only path to acceptable solutions.
I believe that if we ensure such cooperation, there will be no talk of a cold war. After all, since the Arab
Spring, they have already approached our borders. Why did they have to support the coup in Ukraine?
I have often spoken about this. The internal political situation there is complicated and the opposition that
is in power now would most likely have come to power democratically, through elections. Thats it. We
would have worked with them as we had with the government that was in power before President
Yanukovych.
But no, they had to proceed with a coup, casualties, unleash bloodshed, a civil war, and scare
the Russian-speaking population of southeastern Ukraine and Crimea. All for the sake of what? And after
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we had to, simply had to take measures to protect certain social groups, they began to escalate
the situation, ratcheting up tensions. In my opinion, this is being done, among other things, to justify
the existence of the North Atlantic bloc. They need an external adversary, an external enemy otherwise
why is this organisation necessary in the first place? There is no Warsaw Pact, no Soviet Union who is it
directed against?
If we continue to act according to this logic, escalating [tensions] and redoubling efforts to scare each
other, then one day it will come to a cold war. Our logic is totally different. It is focused on cooperation
and the search for compromise. (Applause.)
Fareed Zakaria: So let me ask you, Mr President, then what is the way out? Because I saw an interview
of yours that you did with Die Welt, the German newspaper, in which you said, the key problem is that
the Minsk Accords have not been implemented by the Government in Ukraine, by Kiev, the constitutional
reforms. They say on the other side that in Eastern Ukraine, the violence has not come down,
and the separatists are not restraining themselves, and they believe Russia should help. So since neither
side seems to back down, will the sanctions just continue, will this low-grade cold war just continue? What
is the way out?
Vladimir Putin: And it is all about people, no matter what you call them. It is about people trying to protect
their legal rights and interests, who fear repression if these interests are not upheld at the political level.
If we look at the Minsk agreements, there are only a few points, and we discussed them all through
the night. What was the bone of contention? What aspect is of primary importance? And we agreed
ultimately that political solutions that ensure the security of people living in Donbass were the priority.
What are these political solutions? They are laid down in detail in the agreements. Constitutional
amendments that had to be adopted by the end of 2015. But where are they? They are nowhere to be
seen. The law on a special status of these territories, which we call unrecognized republics, should have
been put into practice. The law has been passed by the countrys parliament but still hasnt come into
effect. There should have been an amnesty law. It was passed by the Ukrainian parliament but was never
signed by the president, it has no effect.
What kind of elections are we talking about? What sort of election process can be organised during
an anti-terrorist operation? Do any countries do that? We do not talk about it, but does any other country
hold election campaigns when an anti-terrorist operation is taking place on its territory?
They [elections] have to be cancelled and our work should focus on economic and humanitarian
restoration. Nothing is being done, nothing at all. Postponing these problems over on-going violence
on the frontlines is just an excuse. What is happening in reality is that both sides are accusing each other
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of opening fire. Why do you think it is separatists who are shooting? If you ask them, they say, It is
Ukrainian government forces, the Ukrainian army.
One side opens fire, the other side responds thats what exchanging fire means. Do you think this is
a good enough reason to delay political reforms? On the contrary, political reforms that will constitute
the foundation of a final settlement on security are a pressing priority.
Some things have to be done in parallel. I agree with Mr Poroshenko that the OSCE mission has to be
reinforced to the point of authorizing OSCE observers to carry firearms. Other things can be done
to improve security. But we cannot afford to continue putting off key political decision by citing the lack
of security in the area. Thats it. (Applause.)
Fareed Zakaria: There are so many areas to cover with you, Mr President, so let me go to the Middle
East, where Russia has had a forceful intervention to bolster the Assad regime. President Assad now
says that his goal is to take back every square inch of his territory. Do you believe that the solution
in Syria is that the Assad regime should take back and govern every square inch of Syria?
Vladimir Putin: I think that the problems of Syria, of course, concern primarily the anti-terrorist struggle,
but there is more to it. It goes without saying that the Syrian conflict is rooted in contradictions within
Syrian society, and President Bashar al-Assad understands this very well. The task is not just to expand
control over various territories, although this is very important. The point is to ensure the confidence
of the entire society and trust between different parts of this society, and to establish on this foundation
a modern and efficient government that will be trusted by the countrys entire population. And political
negotiations are the only road to this. We have urged this more than once. President al-Assad also spoke
about this he accepts this process.
What needs to be done today? It is necessary to join more actively the process of forming the new
Constitution and to conduct, on this basis, future elections, both presidential and parliamentary. When
President al-Assad was in Moscow, we spoke about this with him and he fully agreed with this. Moreover,
it is extremely important to conduct the elections under strict international control, with the participation
of the United Nations. Yesterday we discussed this issue in detail with Mr de Mistura and the UN
Secretary-General. They all agree with this, but we need action. We hope very much that our partners,
primarily from the United States, will work with their allies that support the opposition to encourage
constructive cooperation with the Syrian authorities.
What do we mean by this? In general, when I ask my colleagues: Why are you doing this? they reply:
To assert the principles of democracy. President al-Assads regime is not democratic and the triumph
of democracy must be ensured. Fine. Is democracy everywhere there? No, not yet but democracy
should exist in Syria. Ok. And how do you make society democratic? Is it only possible to achieve this
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by force of arms or simply by force? No, this may be done only with the help of democratic institutions
and procedures. And what are they all about? There is no more democratic way of forming a government
than elections on the basis of fundamental law: a Constitution that is formulated in a clear way, that is
transparent and accepted by the overwhelming majority of society. Pass the Constitution and hold
elections on its basis. Whats bad about this, especially if they are held under international control?
Occasionally we hear that some countries of the region do not fully understand what democracy is. Do we
want to replace one undemocratic regime with another undemocratic one? And if we still want to promote
the principle of democracy lets do this by democratic means. But considering this is a complicated
process and results will not come tomorrow or the day after tomorrow but will require time, while we still
need to do something today, I agree with the proposals of our partners, primarily our American partners
that suggest (I dont know, maybe Im saying too much although, on the other hand, this US proposal is
known in the region, and the negotiators of both sides the government and the opposition are familiar
with it and I consider it absolutely acceptable), they suggested considering the possibility of bringing
representatives of the opposition into existing power structures, for instance, the Government. It is
necessary to think about what powers this Government will have.
However, it is important not to go too far. It is necessary to proceed from the current realities
and to refrain from declaring unfeasible, unrealistic goals. Many of our partners are saying that Assad
should go. Today they are saying no, lets restructure governing institutions in such and such a way, but
in practical terms it will also mean his departure. But this is also unrealistic. Therefore, it is necessary
to act carefully, step by step, gradually winning the confidence of all sides to the conflict.
If this happens, and I think this will happen in any event and the sooner the better, it will be possible to go
further and speak both about subsequent elections and a final settlement. The main point is to prevent
the countrys collapse. And if things continue to go as they are today, collapse will become inevitable.
And this is the worst-case scenario because we cannot assume that after the countrys collapse some
quasi-state formations will co-exist in peace and harmony. No, this will be a destabilising factor
for the region and the rest of the world.
Fareed Zakaria: Let me ask you, Mr President, about another democracy that is having a very different
kind of drama. You made some comments about the American Republican presumptive nominee, Donald
Trump. You called him brilliant, outstanding, talented. These comments were reported around the world.
I was wondering, what in him led you to that judgement, and do you still hold that judgement?
Vladimir Putin: You are well known in our country, you personally. Not only as a host of a major TV
corporation, but also as an intellectual. Why are you distorting everything? The journalist in you is getting
the better of the analyst. Look, what did I say? I said in passing that Trump is a vivid personality. Is he
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not? He is. I did not ascribe any other characteristics to him. However, what I definitely note and what
I definitely welcome and I see nothing wrong about this, just the opposite is that Mr Trump said that
he is ready for the full-scale restoration of Russian-US relations. What is wrong with that? We all welcome
this! Dont you?
We never interfere in the internal politics of other countries, especially the United States. However, we will
work with any president that the US people vote for. Although I do not think, by the way, that Well, they
lecture everyone on how to live and on democracy. Now, do you really think presidential elections there
are democratic? Look, twice in US history a president was elected by a majority of electors, but standing
behind those electors was a smaller number of voters. Is that democracy? And when (sometimes we
have debates with our colleagues; we never accuse anyone of anything, we simply have debates) we are
told: Do not meddle in our affairs. Mind your own business. This is how we do things, we feel like saying:
Well then, do not meddle in our affairs. Why do you? Put your own house in order first.
But, to reiterate, indeed, this is none of our business although, in my opinion, even prosecutors there
chase international observers away from polling stations during election campaigns. US prosecutors
threaten to jail them. However, these are their own problems; this is how they do things and they like it.
America is a great power, today perhaps the only superpower. We accept this. We want to work with
the United States and we are prepared to. No matter how these elections go, eventually they will take
place. There will be a [new] head of state with extensive powers. There are complicated internal political
and economic processes at work in the United States. The world needs a powerful country like the United
States, and we also need it. But we do not need it to continuously interfere in our affairs, telling us how
to live, and preventing Europe from building a relationship with us.
How are the sanctions that you have mentioned affecting the United States? In no way whatsoever. It
could not care less about these sanctions because the consequences of our actions in response have no
impact on it. They impact Europe but not the United States. Zero effect. However, the Americans are
telling their partners: Be patient. Why should they? I do not understand. If they want to, let them.
We do not lavish praise on anybody. Its none of our business. As Germans say, this is not our beer.
Because when they make their choice, we will work with any president who has received the support
of the American people, in the hope that it will be a person who seeks to develop relations with our
country and help build a more secure world.
Fareed Zakaria: Just to be clear, Mr President, the word brilliant was in the Interfax translation, I realize
that other translations might say bright, but I used the official Interfax translation. But let me ask you
about another person you have dealt with a great deal. Mr Trump, you've never met. Hillary Clinton was
Secretary of State. In your very long questions and answers with the Russian people, you made a joke
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when somebody asked you about her you said, I think that the Russia idiom is, the husband and wife is
the same devil. And what it means in the English version is, it's two sides of the same coin. What did you
mean by that, and how did she do as Secretary of State? You dealt with her extensively.
Vladimir Putin: I did not work with her, Lavrov did. Ask him. He is sitting here.
I was not a foreign minister, but Sergei Lavrov was. He will soon tie [Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei]
Gromyko. (Addressing Sergei Lavrov.) How long have you been in office?
I worked with Bill Clinton, although for a very short time, and we had a very good relationship. I can even
say that I am grateful to him for certain moments as I was entering the big stage in politics. On several
occasions, he showed signs of attention, respect for me personally, as well as for Russia. I remember this
and I am grateful to him.
About Ms Clinton. Perhaps she has her own view on the development of Russian-US relations. You
know, there is something I would like to draw [your] attention to, which has nothing to do with Russian-US
relations or with national politics. It is related, rather, to personnel policy.
In my experience, I have often seen what happens with people before they take on a certain job
and afterward. Often, you cannot recognise them, because once they reach a new level of responsibility
they begin to talk and think differently, they even look different. We act on the assumption that the sense
of responsibility of the US head of state, the head of the country on which a great deal in the world
depends today, that this sense of responsibility will encourage the newly elected president to cooperate
with Russia and, I would like to repeat, build a more secure world.
Fareed Zakaria: President Putin, let me finally ask you one question about news reports about Russian
athletes. There are now two major investigations that have shown that Russian athletes have engaged
in doping on a massive scale, and that there has been a systematic evasion and doctoring of testing
and lab samples. And I was just wondering what you reaction to these reports is.
Vladimir Putin: I did not understand what kind of programme it is to tamper with the samples that were
collected for tests? If samples are collected they are immediately transferred to international
organisations for storage and we have nothing to do with them. Samples are collected and taken
somewhere, to Lausanne or wherever, I do not know where, but they are not on Russian territory. They
can be opened, re-checked, and this is what specialists are doing now.
Doping is not only a Russian problem. It is a problem of the entire sports world. If somebody tries
to politicise something in this sphere, I think this is a big mistake, because just like culture, for example,
sport cannot be politicised. These are the bridges that bring people, nations and states closer together.
This is the way to approach it, not try to forge some anti-Russian or anti-whatever policy on this basis.
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As for the Russian authorities, I can assure you, we are categorically against all doping for several
reasons. First, as a former amateur athlete, I can tell you, and I think that the overwhelming majority
of people will agree with this: if we know there is doping, its not interesting to watch the event; millions
of fans lose interest in the sport.
Second, no less important, and maybe even most important, there is the health of the athletes
themselves. You cant justify anything that damages health. This is why we have combated and will
continue to combat doping in sport on the national level.
Furthermore, as far as I know, the Prosecutor Generals Office and the Investigative Committee have
been closely looking into all facts reported in the media, among others. Simply, this must not be turned
into a campaign, especially a campaign disparaging sport, including Russian sport.
Next, the third point I would like to make. There is a legal concept that says responsibility can only be
individual. Collective responsibility cannot be imposed on all athletes or athletes of a certain sports
federation if certain individuals have been caught doping. An entire team cannot be held responsible
for those who have committed this violation. I believe that this is an absolutely natural, correct approach.
However, doping is not the only problem today. There are plenty of problems in sport. Euro 2016 is
underway. I believe that less attention is being paid to football than to brawling between fans. This is very
sad and I regret this, but here too we should always proceed from some general criteria. To reiterate,
responsibility for misconduct should be individualised as much as possible and the approach toward
perpetrators should be the same.
Euro 2016 began with a high-profile case: a fight between Russian and British fans. This is absolutely
outrageous. Granted, I do not know how 200 Russian fans were able to pummel several thousand
Britons. I do not understand. But in any case, law enforcement agencies should take the same approach
toward all perpetrators.
This is the way we have organised this work and will continue to combat doping and enforce discipline
among fans. We will work with these fan associations. I very much hope that there are plenty
of intelligent, sensible people among the fans, who really love sport and who understand that violations
do nothing to support their team but, on the contrary, cause damage to the team and to sport. However,
a great deal has yet to be done here, including in conjunction with our [foreign] colleagues.
I would like to stress that there has been absolutely no support and can be absolutely no support
for violations in sport, let alone doping violations, at the state level. We have worked and will continue
to work with all international organisations in this sphere.
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Stanovaya on the Economic Forum and foreign business
https://slon.ru/posts/69481
This is the first St. Petersburg forum not shunned by Western political elites in a couple of
yearsRussia wants to show Western business that there are possibilities for reformThe
sanctions have not been removed, the Minsk agreements not fulfilled, but there has been a
certain lowering of tensionsThe Kremlin is cautiously rehabilitating the systemic liberals
Kudrin has informal status as the main reformer, with assistance from GrefVlast, not very
convincingly, is making noises about improving conditions for private business Gestures have
been made to ease tensions with the WestSavchenko, for example, was releasedtheres a
certain weariness with confrontationThere has been some movement away from the
conservative trend domesticallyPavlenskiy has been released
(http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-pavlensky-artist-fined-cultural-site-fsb/27786266.html
)...The message to Western investors is clearRussia does not want to be North Korea or even
BelarusRussia needs direct investment and budget problems are pushing vlast toward making
a political decision on structural reforms
The weariness of both Russia and the West with sanctions in the mid-term could at least lead to
their weakening. The decline of the economy has slowed down and some optimists expect
growth by the end of the year The Ukraine crisis could be routinized, pushed to the back
burner in favor of cooperating on combatting terrorismPutin wants to lower tensions with the
Americans
Yet the arbitrary behavior of courts, tax terrorism, corruption, and nightmaring businesses
have only become worseAverage investors without special connections are waiting for a sign
of vlasts intensions and of a more transparent economic policyIts doubtful that will
happenand foreign business surely understands thatForeign investors want to know about
concrete economic development plans, tax policy, about whether Glazyev is taken seriously and
whether Kudrin is around just for window dressing. Are the siloviky taking part in discussions on
economic policy temporarily or is they here to stay?
IN18June16.docx
Putin wants the economy to improve, but without changing anything institutionallyThe way
to have influence in Russia is through a relationship with one of Putins friends, who often have
more influence than ministers. So investors want to know what a particular persons access to
Putin really is, what kind of influence a person might have on a ministerAnd investors see a
society that is distrustful, even hateful toward the West, one where opposition political figures
are in danger, where one has to be wary of provocations by competitorsAnd the Yukos case,
the Magnitskiy affair, and the case against the owners and managers of Domodedovo airport are
still very much on the minds of foreign investors
In Russia, if you move one way, you lose your business, another and you lose your life. If you
move just right, you can become a billionaire
Solovey on gestures to America
Russias conciliatory gestures to America are being made for two reasons: One, because it is the
Americans blocking European revisionism regarding Russia; and two, because Moscow is
worried about reputational scandalsthere may be more to come, provoking a spilt in the
Russian elite
German foreign minister on NATO warmongering
HTTPS://WWW.YAHOO.COM/NEWS/GERMANY-SLAMS-NATO-WARMONGERING-RUSSIA-
115515814.HTML?REF=GS
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has criticised NATO for having a bellicose policy
towards Russia, describing it as "warmongering", the German daily Bild reported.
Steinmeier pointed to the deployment of NATO troops near borders with Russia in the military alliance's
Baltic and east European member states.
IN18June16.docx
"What we should avoid today is inflaming the situation by warmongering and stomping boots,"
Steinmeier told Bild in an interview to be published Sunday.
"Anyone who thinks you can increase security in the alliance with symbolic parades of tanks near the
eastern borders, is mistaken," Germany's top diplomat added.
NATO had announced on Monday that it would deploy four battalions to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and
Poland to counter a more assertive Russia, ahead of a landmark summit in Warsaw next month.
All four countries were once ruled from Moscow and remain deeply suspicious of Russian intentions,
especially after Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.
In an interview with Bild on Thursday, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said Russia is seeking to create "a
zone of influence through military means".
"We are observing massive militarisation at NATO borders -- in the Arctic, in the Baltic, from the Black
Sea to the Mediterranean Sea," he told the newspaper.
Stoltenberg has stressed that NATO does not seek confrontation with Russia and wants a constructive
dialogue but that it would defend the 28 allies against any threat
Russia bitterly opposes NATO's expansion into its Soviet-era satellites and last month said it would
create three new divisions in its southwest region to meet what it described as a dangerous military
build-up along its borders.
From: Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>
Senttime: 06/17/201601:11:10PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:PutinsaysacceptsU.S.issolesuperpower,dilutesTrumppraise|Reuters
FranciscoaskedthatJoshbeputonyourlist.Isaidno.
Sent:Friday,June17,20164:02PM
To:Williams,JohnPFishel,Eugene
Subject:PutinsaysacceptsU.S.issolesuperpower,dilutesTrumppraise|Reuters
http://redirect.state.sbu/?url=http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-forum-putin-usa-idUSKCN0Z31G4
RELATEDCOVERAGE
PresidentVladimirPutinsaidonFridayheacceptedtheUnitedStateswasprobablystilltheworld'ssolesuperpowerandhewas
readytoworkwithwhoeverwonthepresidency,butdidn'twanttobetoldhowtolivebyAmericans.
Putin'scommentsfollowarockyperiodinU.S.-Russiarelations,whichhavebeenunderminedbydisagreementsoverissuessuch
asUkraineandSyria.
PutinreiteratedcriticismofwhathesaidwasthemisguidedroleoftheUnitedStatesinUkraine'saffairsandsaidheopposedwhat
hecastasU.S.effortstopreventRussiarepairingitsrelationswiththeEuropeanUnion.
"Americaisagreatpower-todayprobablytheonlysuperpower.Weacceptthat,"PutinsaidattheStPetersburgInternational
EconomicForum."WewanttoandarereadytoworkwiththeUnitedStates."
AskedaboutDonaldTrump,PutinappearedtoplaydownpositivecommentshehadmadeabouttheRepublicancontenderinthe
past,sayingthosehadbeenmisinterpreted.
InDecember,PutindescribedTrumpas"veryflamboyant","verytalented"and"anabsoluteleaderinthepresidentialrace".
Thosecomments,alongwithwarmwordsfromTrumpaboutPutin,havefueledspeculationtheKremlinwouldbepleasedtosee
TrumpintheWhiteHouse.
PutinsaidhewelcomedTrump'sdesiretorestoreU.S.-Russiaties."What'swrongwiththat?"Putinasked,drawingapplausefrom
theaudience.
HeappearedkeenhowevertohedgeRussia'sbetsbyavoidingtheimpressionhewastakingsides,andalsoemphasizedhis"warm
relations"withformerU.S.PresidentBillClinton,whosewifeHillaryisrunningfortheWhiteHouse.
(ReportingbyChristianLowe,AlexanderWinning,KatyaGolubkovaandElenaFabrichnayaWritingbyJasonBushandPolina
DevittEditingbyAndrewOsborn)
SentfrommyiPad
From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 06/18/201610:02:27AM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes18June2016
Attachments: IN18June16.docx
InternetNotes18June2016
fans)
fans)
Seeyesterdaysnotes.
IdidabriefsummaryofPutinsspeechandincludedalinktotheRussianinyesterdaysnotes.HereareexcerptsfromanEnglish
versionofthespeech:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52178
Thestructuralproblemsaccumulatedbytheglobaleconomystillpersist,andwehavenotyetputoureconomyonthegrowthtrajectory.
Incidentally,currentgeopoliticaltensionsarerelated,tosomeextent,toeconomicuncertainty
andtheexhaustingoftheoldsourcesofgrowth.Thereisariskitmayincreaseorevenbeartificiallyprovoked.
Itisourcommoninteresttofindacreativeandconstructivewayoutofthissituation.
Theworldsleadingeconomiesarelookingforsourcesofgrowth,andtheyarelookingtocapitalise
ontheenormousexistingandgrowingpotentialofdigitalandindustrialtechnologies,robotics,energy,
biotechnology,medicineandotherfields.Discoveriesintheseareascanleadtotruetechnologicalrevolutions,
toanexplosivegrowthoflabourproductivity.Thisisalreadyhappeningandwillhappeninevitablythereis
impendingrestructuringofentireindustries,thedevaluationofmanyfacilitiesandassets.Thiswillalter
thedemandforskillsandcompetencies,andcompetitionwillescalateinbothtraditionalandemerging
markets.
Infact,eventodaywecanseeattemptstosecureorevenmonopolisethebenefitsofnextgeneration
technologies.This,Ithink,isthemotivebehindthecreationofrestrictedareaswithregulatorybarriers
toreducethecross-flowofbreakthroughtechnologiestootherregionsoftheworldwithfairlytightcontrolover
cooperationchainsformaximumgainfromtechnologicaladvances.Wehavediscussedthiswithour
colleaguessomesayitispossible.Ithinknot.Onecancontrolthespreadofcertaintechnologiesforawhile,
butintoday'sworlditwouldbenexttoimpossibletokeeptheminacontainedarea,evenalargearea.Yet,
theseeffortscouldleadtobasicsciences,nowopentosharingofknowledgeandinformationthroughjoint
projects,gettingclosedtoo,withseparationbarrierscomingup.
Over40statesandinternationalorganisationshaveexpressedthedesiretoestablishafreetradezonewith
theEurasianEconomicUnion.OurpartnersandwethinkthattheEAEUcanbecomeoneofthecentres
ofagreateremergentintegrationarea.Amongotherbenefits,wecanaddressambitioustechnological
problemswithinitsframework,promotetechnologicalprogressandattractnewmembers.Wediscussedthis
inAstanaquiterecently.NowweproposeconsideringtheprospectsformoreextensiveEurasianpartnership
involvingtheEAEUandcountrieswithwhichwealreadyhaveclosepartnershipChina,India,Pakistan
andIranandcertainlyourCISpartners,andotherinterestedcountriesandassociations.
AsearlyasJunewe,alongwithourChinesecolleagues,areplanningtostartofficialtalksontheformation
ofcomprehensivetradeandeconomicpartnershipinEurasiawiththeparticipationoftheEuropeanUnion
statesandChina.IexpectthatthiswillbecomeoneofthefirststepstowardtheformationofamajorEurasian
partnership.WewillcertainlyresumethediscussionofthismajorprojectattheEasternEconomicForum
inVladivostokinearlySeptember.Colleagues,Iwouldliketotakethisopportunitytoinviteallofyoutotake
partinit.
Friends,theprojectIhavejustmentionedthegreaterEurasiaprojectis,ofcourse,openforEurope,
andIamconvincedthatsuchcooperationmaybemutuallybeneficial.Despiteallofthewell-knownproblems
inourrelations,theEuropeanUnionremainsRussiaskeytradeandeconomicpartner.Itisournext-door
neighbourandwearenotindifferenttowhatishappeninginthelivesofourneighbours,Europeancountries
andtheEuropeaneconomy.
ThechallengeofthetechnologicalrevolutionandstructuralchangesarenolessurgentfortheEUthan
forRussia.IalsounderstandourEuropeanpartnerswhentheytalkaboutthecomplicateddecisionsforEurope
thatweremadeatthetalksontheformationoftheTrans-Atlanticpartnership.Obviously,Europehasavast
potentialandastakeonjustoneregionalassociationclearlynarrowsitsopportunities.Under
thecircumstances,itisdifficultforEuropetomaintainbalanceandpreservespaceforagainfulmanoeuvre.
AstherecentmeetingswithrepresentativesoftheGermanandFrenchbusinesscircleshaveshowed,
Europeanbusinessiswillingandreadytocooperatewiththiscountry.Politiciansshouldmeetbusinesses
halfwaybydisplayingwisdom,andafar-sightedandflexibleapproach.WemustreturntrusttoRussian-
Europeanrelationsandrestorethelevelofourcooperation.
Werememberhowitallstarted.Russiadidnotinitiatethecurrentbreakdown,disruption,problems
andsanctions.Allouractionshavebeenexclusivelyreciprocal.Butwedontholdagrudge,astheysay,
andarereadytomeetourEuropeanpartnershalfway.However,thiscanbynomeansbeaone-waystreet.
LetmerepeatthatweareinterestedinEuropeansjoiningtheprojectforamajorEurasianpartnership.Inthis
contextwewelcometheinitiativeofthePresidentofKazakhstanonholdingconsultationsbetween
theEurasianEconomicUnionandtheEU.Yesterdaywediscussedthisissueatthemeetingwith
thePresidentoftheEuropeanCommission.
Russiahasmanagedtoresolvethemosturgentcurrentproblemsintheeconomy.Wehopegrowthwill
resumeinthenearfuture.Wehavemaintainedreservesandsubstantiallyreducedcapitaldrainbyfivetimes
comparedwiththefirstquarterof2016.Inflationisgoingdownaswell.Ithasfallenalmostinhalfifwecompare
severalmonthsin20142015withthesameperiodin20152016.Ibelievethatitispossibletobringinflation
downto45percentasearlyasinthemid-termperspective.
Inaddition,itisnecessarytograduallydecreasethebudgetdeficitandthedependenceonrevenuesfrom
hydrocarbonsandotherrawmaterials.Thisincludescuttingournon-oilandgasdeficitatleastinhalf
inthenext5to7years.
Thecurrentslowdownisaglobaltrend.
Akeyfactorthatpredeterminestheoverallcompetitivenessoftheeconomy,marketdynamics,GDPgrowth
andhigherwagesislaborproductivity.Weneedhigherlaborproductivityatlargeandmedium-sized
enterprises:inindustry,intheconstructionandthetransportsectorsandinagriculturenolessthan5
percentayear.Thisappearstobeachallengingandevenunattainablegoal,ifwelookatwhatishappening
heretoday.Atthesametime,theexamplesofnumerousenterprises,aswellasofentiremanufacturing
sectors,suchastheaircraftindustry,thechemicalindustry,pharmaceuticsandagriculture,showthatthis
goalisquitefeasibleandrealistic.
Wewilldeveloplegislation,taxregulatorsandtechnicalstandardstoincentivisecompaniestoraiselabour
productivityandintroducelabourandenergysavingtechnology.Withthegrowthoflabourproductivity,
inefficientemploymentwillinevitablyshrink,whichmeanswewillneedtosubstantiallyincreasethelabour
marketsflexibility,toofferpeoplenewopportunities.Wewillbeabletoresolvethisproblemprimarily
bycreatingmorejobsatsmallandmedium-sizedbusinesses.Thenumberofpeople(whatIamgoingtosayis
veryimportant)employedatsmallandmedium-sizedbusinessesshouldgrowfromtoday's18million
byatleast1.4millionby2020andbymorethan3millionby2025.Itwillbedifficulttoincreasesupport
forsmallandmedium-sizedbusinesses,andstillhardertoconsistentlybuildanicheforitsoperation.Butit
needstobedone.
Ishouldaddthatourimportreplacementprogrammeisalsoaimedatmanufacturinggoodsthatare
competitiveontheglobalmarket.Andinthissense,Iwouldalsoliketostressthatimportreplacementis
animportantstageforexpandingexportsinsectorsotherthanrawmaterialsandfindingaplaceforour
companiesinglobalmanufacturingandtechnologicalalliancesandnotinsecondaryroles,butasstrong
andeffectivepartners.
Friends,wewillcontinuetofurtherliberaliseandimprovethebusinessclimate.Iknowagreatdealhasbeen
saidaboutthisatforumeventstodayandyesterday.Wewilltacklesystemicproblems,ofwhichwestillhave
plenty.Thisincludesimprovingtransparencyandbalancingrelationsbetweengovernmentagencies
andbusinesses.Theserelationsshouldbebuiltonunderstandingandmutualresponsibility,meticulous
observanceandcompliancewithlawsandrespectfortheinterestsofthestateandsociety,
andtheunconditionalvalueoftheinstitutionofprivateproperty.
Itisessentialtodrasticallyreduceillegalcriminalprosecutions.Furthermore,representativesofsecurity
andlawenforcementagenciesshouldbemadepersonallyliableforunjustifiedactionsleading
tothedestructionofabusinessenterprise.Ibelievethatthisliabilitycanbecriminal.
Irealizethatthisisaverysensitiveissue.Wecannotandshouldnotbindourlawenforcementagencieshand
andfoot.However,withoutadoubt,thereisaneedforbalancehere,forafirmbarriertoanyabusesofpower.
TheleadershipoftheProsecutorGeneralsOffice,theInvestigativeCommittee,theInteriorMinistry
andtheFederalSecurityServiceshouldcontinuouslymonitorthesituationonthegroundand,ifnecessary,
takemeasurestoimprovelegislation.
Iasktheworkinggrouponlawenforcementinentrepreneurialactivity,whichisheadedbyChiefofStaff
ofthePresidentialExecutiveOfficeSergeiIvanov,tofocusontheseissuesaswell.IshouldaddthatIhave
alreadysubmittedtoparliamentapackageofdraftlawspreparedbytheworkinggroup,designedtohumanise
theso-calledeconomicstatutes[oftheCriminalCode].Thatsaid,itisalsoimportanttoguaranteebusinesses
andallcitizenstherighttofairandimpartialdefenceincourt.
TheRussianjudicialcommunityhasdoneagooddealrecentlytoimprovethequalityofthecourtsystem.
ThemergingoftheSupremeandtheHigherArbitrationcourtshasplayedapositiveroleinensuring
theuniformityoflawenforcement.Ibelieveitisnecessarytomovefurthertowardenhancingtheresponsibility
ofjudgesandmakingthejudicialprocessmoretransparent.
Amajorroleincreatingafavorablebusinessenvironment,withoutadoubt,belongstoRussianregions.Iknow
thatthiswasdiscussedatforumeventsinthemorning,andtheresultsoftheannualnationalinvestment
climateratingswereannounced.Iwouldliketojoinincongratulatingthewinnersandremindyouthattheseare
TatarstanandtheBelgorodandKalugaregions.Iwouldalsoliketonotethesignificantprogressmade
bytheTula,Vladimir,Tyumen,Kirov,LipetskandOrelregions,andthecityofMoscow.
Whatstandsouthere?Judgingbytheresults,acoregroupofleadershasalreadyemerged,whoareinvariably
atthetopofrankings.Thenaturalquestionis:Wherearetheothers?IasktheGovernment,inconjunctionwith
businesscommunities,toconsideradditionalmechanismstorewardthebestregionaladministrativeteams.
Ontheotherhand,wewilltakeseriousmeasures,includingdismissals,withregardtoregionalleaderswhodo
notunderstandthatbusinesssupportisamajorresourceforregionalandnationaldevelopment.Iwouldlike
mycolleaguesintheregions,aboveall,regionalleaderstohearme.Wewillseriouslyanalysewhatis
happeninginthissphereineachRussianregionanddiscusstheissueindepthintheautumn.
Ladiesandgentlemen,IhavealreadytalkedaboutRussiasparticipationincooperativescientificresearch
projects,inparticularwithEuropeancountries.Itisessentialtoaddthatwehaveacoreadvantages
inphysics,mathematicsandchemistry.Asyouknow,recentlywehonouredscientistswhowontheNational
Award,whohavemadebrilliantbreakthroughsinbiology,geneticsandmedicine.Russianmicrobiologistshave
developed,forexample,aneffectivevaccineagainstEbola.Nationalcompaniesaregoingtobringanentireline
ofunmannedvehiclestothemarketandareworkingonenergydistributionandstorage,anddigitalsea
navigationsystems.Wehavepracticallyputinplaceatechnologicaldevelopmentmanagementsystem.What
doesthisentailandwhatwouldIliketosayinthiscontext?
First.TherecentlyformedTechnologyDevelopmentAgencywillhelpapplycurrentresearchtoreal
manufacturingandsetupjointventureswithforeignpartners.
Second.Anothermechanismwillbeinusestartingin2019.Majormanufacturerswillbemadelegallybound
tousethemostadvancedtechnologiesmeetingthehighestenvironmentalstandards.Hopefully,thiswillgive
aseriousboosttoindustrialmodernisation.Manyneighbouringcountriesintroducedsuchrequirementslong
ago.Wehavehadtoputoffthesechangesduetoproblemsintherealeconomicsectors,butwecantkeep
postponingitanymore.Ourbusinesscolleaguesknowthisandmustbeprepared.
Andfinally,third.TheNationalTechnologyInitiativecoversprojectsofthefuturebasedontechnologiesthatwill
createfundamentallynewmarketsinadecadeortwo.IwouldliketoasktheGovernmenttopromptlyremove
administrative,legislativeandotherobstaclesblockingthedevelopmentoffuturemarkets.Itisessential
tobackuptechnologicaldevelopmentwithfinancialresources.Therefore,thekeytaskfacingtheoverhauled
Vnesheconombankwillbetosupportlong-termprojects,attractiveprojectsinthishigh-techsector.
Weclearlyunderstandthatitispeoplewhocreateandusetechnologies.Talentedresearchers,qualified
engineersandworkersplayacrucialroleinmakingthenationaleconomycompetitive.Thereforeeducationis
somethingweshouldpayparticularattentiontointhenextfewyears.
Colleagues,obviouslytheissuesthatwearefacingcallfornewapproachestowarddevelopment
management,andherewearedeterminedtomakeactiveuseoftheprojectprinciple.Apresidentialcouncil
forstrategicdevelopmentandpriorityprojectswillbecreatedinthenearfuture.Itwillbeheadedbyyour
humbleservant,whilethecouncilpresidiumwillbeledbyPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedev.
Thecouncilwilldealwithkeyprojectsaimedateffectingstructuralchangesintheeconomyandthesocial
sphere,andincreasinggrowthrates.Ihavespokenaboutsomeoftheseprojectstoday:raisinglabour
productivity,thebusinessclimate,supportforsmallandmedium-sizedbusiness,andexportsupport,among
others.
primeminister,thoughinItaly,youareallowedtosayPresidentRenzialso.Bytheformatwehaveagreed
upon,whatIwilldoiswewillbeginthisdiscussionfirstwithourhostpresident,PresidentPutin,andthenIwill
widenthatconversationtoincludePrimeMinisterRenziandPresidentNazarbayev.Westartedalittlebitlate,
sowewillgoalittlebitlonger.
PresidentPutin,letmeaskyouaverysimplequestion.Since2014,youhavehadEuropeanUnionsanctions
andUSsanctionsagainstRussia.NATOhasannouncedjustthisweekthatitisgoingtobuildupforces
instatesthatborderRussia.Russiahasannounceditsownbuildup.Arewesettlingintoalow-grade,lower-
levelcoldwarbetweentheWestandRussia?
Iwilltellyou.Iwillhavetotakeyoubackintime.AfterthecollapseoftheSovietUnion,weexpectedoverall
prosperityandoveralltrust.Unfortunately,Russiahadtofacenumerouschallenges,speakinginmodernterms:
economic,socialanddomesticpolicy.Wecameupagainstseparatism,radicalism,aggressionofinternational
terror,becauseundoubtedlywewerefightingagainstAlQaedamilitantsintheCaucasus,itisanobviousfact,
andtherecanbenosecondthoughtsaboutit.Butinsteadofsupportfromourpartnersinourstrugglewith
theseproblems,wesadlycameacrosssomethingdifferentsupportfortheseparatists.Weweretold,Wedo
notacceptyourseparatistsatthetoppoliticallevel,onlyatthetechnological.
Verywell.Weappreciateit.Butwealsosawinformationsupport,financialsupportandadministrativebackup.
TheSovietUnionwasnomoretheWarsawPacthadceasedtoexist.Butforsomereason,NATOcontinues
toexpanditsinfrastructuretowardsRussiasborders.Itstartedlongbeforeyesterday.Montenegroisbecoming
a[NATO]member.WhoisthreateningMontenegro?Yousee,ourpositionisbeingtotallyignored.
Another,equallyimportant,orperhaps,themostimportantissueistheunilateralwithdrawal[oftheUS]from
theABMTreaty.TheABMTreatywasonceconcludedbetweentheSovietUnionandtheUnitedStates
foragoodreason.TworegionswereallowedtostayMoscowandthesiteofUSICBMsilos.
Thetreatywasdesignedtoprovideastrategicbalanceintheworld.However,theyunilaterallyquitthetreaty,
sayinginafriendlymanner,Thisisnotaimedagainstyou.Youwanttodevelopyouroffensivearms,andwe
assumeitisnotaimedagainstus.
Youknowwhytheysaidso?Itissimple:nobodyexpectedRussiaintheearly2000s,whenitwasstruggling
withitsdomesticproblems,tornapartbyinternalconflicts,politicalandeconomicproblems,tortured
byterrorists,torestoreitsdefencesector.Clearly,nobodyexpectedustobeabletomaintainourarsenals,let
alonehavenewstrategicweapons.Theythoughttheywouldbuilduptheirmissiledefenceforcesunilaterally
whileourarsenalswouldbeshrinking.
AllofthiswasdoneunderthepretextofcombattingtheIraniannuclearthreat.WhathasbecomeoftheIranian
nuclearthreatnow?Thereisnone,buttheprojectcontinues.Thisisthewayitis,stepbystep,oneafter
another,andsoon.
Thentheybegantosupportallkindsofcolourrevolutions,includingtheso-calledArabSpring.Theyfervently
supportedit.Howmanypositivetakesdidwehearonwhatwasgoingon?Whatdiditleadto?Chaos.
andifstepsintheinternationalarenathatareverysensitivetotheinternationalcommunityarenotcoordinated
thensuchconsequencesareinevitable.Conversely,ifwelistentooneanotherandseekoutabalance
ofinterests,thiswillnothappen.Yes,itisadifficultprocess,theprocessofreachingagreement,butitis
theonlypathtoacceptablesolutions.
Ibelievethatifweensuresuchcooperation,therewillbenotalkofacoldwar.Afterall,sincetheArabSpring,
theyhavealreadyapproachedourborders.WhydidtheyhavetosupportthecoupinUkraine?Ihaveoften
spokenaboutthis.Theinternalpoliticalsituationthereiscomplicatedandtheoppositionthatisinpowernow
wouldmostlikelyhavecometopowerdemocratically,throughelections.Thatsit.Wewouldhaveworkedwith
themaswehadwiththegovernmentthatwasinpowerbeforePresidentYanukovych.
speakingpopulationofsoutheasternUkraineandCrimea.Allforthesakeofwhat?Andafterwehadto,simply
hadtotakemeasurestoprotectcertainsocialgroups,theybegantoescalatethesituation,ratchetingup
tensions.Inmyopinion,thisisbeingdone,amongotherthings,tojustifytheexistenceoftheNorthAtlantic
bloc.Theyneedanexternaladversary,anexternalenemyotherwisewhyisthisorganisationnecessary
inthefirstplace?ThereisnoWarsawPact,noSovietUnionwhoisitdirectedagainst?
Ifwecontinuetoactaccordingtothislogic,escalating[tensions]andredoublingeffortstoscareeachother,
thenonedayitwillcometoacoldwar.Ourlogicistotallydifferent.Itisfocusedoncooperationandthesearch
forcompromise.(Applause.)
isthewayout?
IfwelookattheMinskagreements,thereareonlyafewpoints,andwediscussedthemallthroughthenight.
Whatwastheboneofcontention?Whataspectisofprimaryimportance?Andweagreedultimatelythat
politicalsolutionsthatensurethesecurityofpeoplelivinginDonbasswerethepriority.
Whatarethesepoliticalsolutions?Theyarelaiddownindetailintheagreements.Constitutionalamendments
thathadtobeadoptedbytheendof2015.Butwherearethey?Theyarenowheretobeseen.Thelaw
onaspecialstatusoftheseterritories,whichwecallunrecognizedrepublics,shouldhavebeenputinto
practice.Thelawhasbeenpassedbythecountrysparliamentbutstillhasntcomeintoeffect.Thereshould
havebeenanamnestylaw.ItwaspassedbytheUkrainianparliamentbutwasneversignedbythepresident,it
hasnoeffect.
Whatkindofelectionsarewetalkingabout?Whatsortofelectionprocesscanbeorganisedduringananti-
terroristoperation?Doanycountriesdothat?Wedonottalkaboutit,butdoesanyothercountryholdelection
campaignswhenananti-terroristoperationistakingplaceonitsterritory?
They[elections]havetobecancelledandourworkshouldfocusoneconomicandhumanitarianrestoration.
Nothingisbeingdone,nothingatall.Postponingtheseproblemsoveron-goingviolenceonthefrontlinesisjust
anexcuse.Whatishappeninginrealityisthatbothsidesareaccusingeachotherofopeningfire.Whydoyou
thinkitisseparatistswhoareshooting?Ifyouaskthem,theysay,ItisUkrainiangovernmentforces,
theUkrainianarmy.
Onesideopensfire,theothersiderespondsthatswhatexchangingfiremeans.Doyouthinkthisisagood
enoughreasontodelaypoliticalreforms?Onthecontrary,politicalreformsthatwillconstitutethefoundation
ofafinalsettlementonsecurityareapressingpriority.
reinforcedtothepointofauthorizingOSCEobserverstocarryfirearms.Otherthingscanbedonetoimprove
security.Butwecannotaffordtocontinueputtingoffkeypoliticaldecisionbycitingthelackofsecurity
inthearea.Thatsit.(Applause.)
FareedZakaria:Therearesomanyareastocoverwithyou,MrPresident,soletmegototheMiddle
East,whereRussiahashadaforcefulinterventiontobolstertheAssadregime.PresidentAssadnowsays
thathisgoalistotakebackeverysquareinchofhisterritory.DoyoubelievethatthesolutioninSyriais
thattheAssadregimeshouldtakebackandgoverneverysquareinchofSyria?
VladimirPutin:IthinkthattheproblemsofSyria,ofcourse,concernprimarilytheanti-terroriststruggle,
butthereismoretoit.ItgoeswithoutsayingthattheSyrianconflictisrootedincontradictionswithin
Syriansociety,andPresidentBasharal-Assadunderstandsthisverywell.Thetaskisnotjusttoexpand
controlovervariousterritories,althoughthisisveryimportant.Thepointistoensuretheconfidence
oftheentiresocietyandtrustbetweendifferentpartsofthissociety,andtoestablishonthisfoundation
amodernandefficientgovernmentthatwillbetrustedbythecountrysentirepopulation.Andpolitical
negotiationsaretheonlyroadtothis.Wehaveurgedthismorethanonce.Presidental-Assadalsospoke
aboutthisheacceptsthisprocess.
Whatneedstobedonetoday?ItisnecessarytojoinmoreactivelytheprocessofformingthenewConstitution
andtoconduct,onthisbasis,futureelections,bothpresidentialandparliamentary.WhenPresidental-Assad
wasinMoscow,wespokeaboutthiswithhimandhefullyagreedwiththis.Moreover,itisextremelyimportant
toconducttheelectionsunderstrictinternationalcontrol,withtheparticipationoftheUnitedNations.
YesterdaywediscussedthisissueindetailwithMrdeMisturaandtheUNSecretary-General.Theyallagree
withthis,butweneedaction.Wehopeverymuchthatourpartners,primarilyfromtheUnitedStates,willwork
withtheiralliesthatsupporttheoppositiontoencourageconstructivecooperationwiththeSyrianauthorities.
Whatdowemeanbythis?Ingeneral,whenIaskmycolleagues:Whyareyoudoingthis?theyreply:
Toasserttheprinciplesofdemocracy.Presidental-Assadsregimeisnotdemocraticandthetriumph
ofdemocracymustbeensured.Fine.Isdemocracyeverywherethere?No,notyetbutdemocracyshould
existinSyria.Ok.Andhowdoyoumakesocietydemocratic?Isitonlypossibletoachievethisbyforce
ofarmsorsimplybyforce?No,thismaybedoneonlywiththehelpofdemocraticinstitutions
andprocedures.Andwhataretheyallabout?Thereisnomoredemocraticwayofformingagovernmentthan
electionsonthebasisoffundamentallaw:aConstitutionthatisformulatedinaclearway,thatistransparent
andacceptedbytheoverwhelmingmajorityofsociety.PasstheConstitutionandholdelectionsonitsbasis.
Whatsbadaboutthis,especiallyiftheyareheldunderinternationalcontrol?
Occasionallywehearthatsomecountriesoftheregiondonotfullyunderstandwhatdemocracyis.Dowe
wanttoreplaceoneundemocraticregimewithanotherundemocraticone?Andifwestillwanttopromote
theprincipleofdemocracyletsdothisbydemocraticmeans.Butconsideringthisisacomplicatedprocess
andresultswillnotcometomorroworthedayaftertomorrowbutwillrequiretime,whilewestillneedtodo
somethingtoday,Iagreewiththeproposalsofourpartners,primarilyourAmericanpartnersthatsuggest
(Idontknow,maybeImsayingtoomuchalthough,ontheotherhand,thisUSproposalisknownintheregion,
andthenegotiatorsofbothsidesthegovernmentandtheoppositionarefamiliarwithitandIconsiderit
absolutelyacceptable),theysuggestedconsideringthepossibilityofbringingrepresentativesoftheopposition
intoexistingpowerstructures,forinstance,theGovernment.Itisnecessarytothinkaboutwhatpowersthis
Governmentwillhave.
However,itisimportantnottogotoofar.Itisnecessarytoproceedfromthecurrentrealitiesandtorefrainfrom
declaringunfeasible,unrealisticgoals.ManyofourpartnersaresayingthatAssadshouldgo.Todaytheyare
sayingno,letsrestructuregoverninginstitutionsinsuchandsuchaway,butinpracticaltermsitwillalso
meanhisdeparture.Butthisisalsounrealistic.Therefore,itisnecessarytoactcarefully,stepbystep,
graduallywinningtheconfidenceofallsidestotheconflict.
Ifthishappens,andIthinkthiswillhappeninanyeventandthesoonerthebetter,itwillbepossibletogo
furtherandspeakbothaboutsubsequentelectionsandafinalsettlement.Themainpointistoprevent
thecountryscollapse.Andifthingscontinuetogoastheyaretoday,collapsewillbecomeinevitable.Andthis
istheworst-casescenariobecausewecannotassumethatafterthecountryscollapsesomequasi-state
formationswillco-existinpeaceandharmony.No,thiswillbeadestabilisingfactorfortheregionandtherest
oftheworld.
this!Dontyou?
Weneverinterfereintheinternalpoliticsofothercountries,especiallytheUnitedStates.However,wewillwork
withanypresidentthattheUSpeoplevotefor.AlthoughIdonotthink,bytheway,thatWell,theylecture
everyoneonhowtoliveandondemocracy.Now,doyoureallythinkpresidentialelectionsthereare
democratic?Look,twiceinUShistoryapresidentwaselectedbyamajorityofelectors,butstandingbehind
thoseelectorswasasmallernumberofvoters.Isthatdemocracy?Andwhen(sometimeswehavedebates
withourcolleaguesweneveraccuseanyoneofanything,wesimplyhavedebates)wearetold:Donot
meddleinouraffairs.Mindyourownbusiness.Thisishowwedothings,wefeellikesaying:Wellthen,do
notmeddleinouraffairs.Whydoyou?Putyourownhouseinorderfirst.
internationalobserversawayfrompollingstationsduringelectioncampaigns.USprosecutorsthreatentojail
them.However,thesearetheirownproblemsthisishowtheydothingsandtheylikeit.Americaisagreat
power,todayperhapstheonlysuperpower.Weacceptthis.WewanttoworkwiththeUnitedStatesandwe
arepreparedto.Nomatterhowtheseelectionsgo,eventuallytheywilltakeplace.Therewillbea[new]head
ofstatewithextensivepowers.Therearecomplicatedinternalpoliticalandeconomicprocessesatwork
intheUnitedStates.TheworldneedsapowerfulcountryliketheUnitedStates,andwealsoneedit.Butwe
donotneedittocontinuouslyinterfereinouraffairs,tellingushowtolive,andpreventingEuropefrombuilding
arelationshipwithus.
HowarethesanctionsthatyouhavementionedaffectingtheUnitedStates?Innowaywhatsoever.Itcouldnot
carelessaboutthesesanctionsbecausetheconsequencesofouractionsinresponsehavenoimpactonit.
TheyimpactEuropebutnottheUnitedStates.Zeroeffect.However,theAmericansaretellingtheirpartners:
Bepatient.Whyshouldthey?Idonotunderstand.Iftheywantto,letthem.
oftheAmericanpeople,inthehopethatitwillbeapersonwhoseekstodeveloprelationswithourcountry
andhelpbuildamoresecureworld.
Iwasnotaforeignminister,butSergeiLavrovwas.Hewillsoontie[SovietForeignMinisterAndrei]Gromyko.
(AddressingSergeiLavrov.)Howlonghaveyoubeeninoffice?
IworkedwithBillClinton,althoughforaveryshorttime,andwehadaverygoodrelationship.Icanevensay
thatIamgratefultohimforcertainmomentsasIwasenteringthebigstageinpolitics.Onseveraloccasions,
heshowedsignsofattention,respectformepersonally,aswellasforRussia.IrememberthisandIam
gratefultohim.
AboutMsClinton.PerhapsshehasherownviewonthedevelopmentofRussian-USrelations.Youknow,there
issomethingIwouldliketodraw[your]attentionto,whichhasnothingtodowithRussian-USrelationsorwith
nationalpolitics.Itisrelated,rather,topersonnelpolicy.
Inmyexperience,Ihaveoftenseenwhathappenswithpeoplebeforetheytakeonacertainjobandafterward.
Often,youcannotrecognisethem,becauseoncetheyreachanewlevelofresponsibilitytheybegintotalk
andthinkdifferently,theyevenlookdifferent.Weactontheassumptionthatthesenseofresponsibility
oftheUSheadofstate,theheadofthecountryonwhichagreatdealintheworlddependstoday,thatthis
senseofresponsibilitywillencouragethenewlyelectedpresidenttocooperatewithRussiaand,Iwouldlike
torepeat,buildamoresecureworld.
FareedZakaria:PresidentPutin,letmefinallyaskyouonequestionaboutnewsreportsaboutRussian
athletes.TherearenowtwomajorinvestigationsthathaveshownthatRussianathleteshaveengaged
indopingonamassivescale,andthattherehasbeenasystematicevasionanddoctoringoftestingandlab
samples.AndIwasjustwonderingwhatyoureactiontothesereportsis.
VladimirPutin:Ididnotunderstandwhatkindofprogrammeitistotamperwiththesamplesthatwere
collectedfortests?Ifsamplesarecollectedtheyareimmediatelytransferredtointernationalorganisations
forstorageandwehavenothingtodowiththem.Samplesarecollectedandtakensomewhere,
toLausanneorwherever,Idonotknowwhere,buttheyarenotonRussianterritory.Theycanbe
opened,re-checked,andthisiswhatspecialistsaredoingnow.
DopingisnotonlyaRussianproblem.Itisaproblemoftheentiresportsworld.Ifsomebodytriestopoliticise
somethinginthissphere,Ithinkthisisabigmistake,becausejustlikeculture,forexample,sportcannotbe
politicised.Thesearethebridgesthatbringpeople,nationsandstatesclosertogether.Thisistheway
toapproachit,nottrytoforgesomeanti-Russianoranti-whateverpolicyonthisbasis.
AsfortheRussianauthorities,Icanassureyou,wearecategoricallyagainstalldopingforseveralreasons.
First,asaformeramateurathlete,Icantellyou,andIthinkthattheoverwhelmingmajorityofpeoplewillagree
withthis:ifweknowthereisdoping,itsnotinterestingtowatchtheeventmillionsoffansloseinterest
inthesport.
Second,nolessimportant,andmaybeevenmostimportant,thereisthehealthoftheathletesthemselves.
Youcantjustifyanythingthatdamageshealth.Thisiswhywehavecombatedandwillcontinuetocombat
dopinginsportonthenationallevel.
Furthermore,asfarasIknow,theProsecutorGeneralsOfficeandtheInvestigativeCommitteehavebeen
closelylookingintoallfactsreportedinthemedia,amongothers.Simply,thismustnotbeturnedinto
acampaign,especiallyacampaigndisparagingsport,includingRussiansport.
Next,thethirdpointIwouldliketomake.Thereisalegalconceptthatsaysresponsibilitycanonlybe
individual.Collectiveresponsibilitycannotbeimposedonallathletesorathletesofacertainsportsfederationif
certainindividualshavebeencaughtdoping.Anentireteamcannotbeheldresponsibleforthosewhohave
committedthisviolation.Ibelievethatthisisanabsolutelynatural,correctapproach.
However,dopingisnottheonlyproblemtoday.Thereareplentyofproblemsinsport.Euro2016isunderway.
Ibelievethatlessattentionisbeingpaidtofootballthantobrawlingbetweenfans.ThisisverysadandIregret
this,butheretooweshouldalwaysproceedfromsomegeneralcriteria.Toreiterate,responsibility
formisconductshouldbeindividualisedasmuchaspossibleandtheapproachtowardperpetratorsshouldbe
thesame.
Euro2016beganwithahigh-profilecase:afightbetweenRussianandBritishfans.Thisisabsolutely
outrageous.Granted,Idonotknowhow200RussianfanswereabletopummelseveralthousandBritons.Ido
notunderstand.Butinanycase,lawenforcementagenciesshouldtakethesameapproachtowardall
perpetrators.
Thisisthewaywehaveorganisedthisworkandwillcontinuetocombatdopingandenforcedisciplineamong
fans.Wewillworkwiththesefanassociations.Iverymuchhopethatthereareplentyofintelligent,sensible
peopleamongthefans,whoreallylovesportandwhounderstandthatviolationsdonothingtosupporttheir
teambut,onthecontrary,causedamagetotheteamandtosport.However,agreatdealhasyettobedone
here,includinginconjunctionwithour[foreign]colleagues.
Iwouldliketostressthattherehasbeenabsolutelynosupportandcanbeabsolutelynosupportforviolations
insport,letalonedopingviolations,atthestatelevel.Wehaveworkedandwillcontinuetoworkwithall
internationalorganisationsinthissphere.
<>
http://slon.ru/posts/69481
ThisisthefirstSt.PetersburgforumnotshunnedbyWesternpoliticalelitesinacoupleofyearsRussiawantstoshowWestern
businessthattherearepossibilitiesforreformThesanctionshavenotbeenremoved,theMinskagreementsnotfulfilled,butthere
hasbeenacertainloweringoftensionsTheKremliniscautiouslyrehabilitatingthesystemicliberalsKudrinhasinformalstatus
asthemainreformer,withassistancefromGrefVlast,notveryconvincingly,ismakingnoisesaboutimprovingconditionsfor
privatebusinessGestureshavebeenmadetoeasetensionswiththeWestSavchenko,forexample,wasreleasedtheresa
certainwearinesswithconfrontationTherehasbeensomemovementawayfromtheconservativetrenddomestically
Pavlenskiyhasbeenreleased(http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-pavlensky-artist-fined-cultural-site-fsb/27786266.html)...The
messagetoWesterninvestorsisclearRussiadoesnotwanttobeNorthKoreaorevenBelarusRussianeedsdirectinvestment
andbudgetproblemsarepushingvlasttowardmakingapoliticaldecisiononstructuralreforms
ThewearinessofbothRussiaandtheWestwithsanctionsinthemid-termcouldatleastleadtotheirweakening.Thedeclineofthe
economyhassloweddownandsomeoptimistsexpectgrowthbytheendoftheyearTheUkrainecrisiscouldberoutinized,
pushedtothebackburnerinfavorofcooperatingoncombattingterrorismPutinwantstolowertensionswiththeAmericans
Yetthearbitrarybehaviorofcourts,taxterrorism,corruption,andnightmaringbusinesseshaveonlybecomeworseAverage
investorswithoutspecialconnectionsarewaitingforasignofvlastsintensionsandofamoretransparenteconomicpolicyIts
doubtfulthatwillhappenandforeignbusinesssurelyunderstandsthatForeigninvestorswanttoknowaboutconcrete
economicdevelopmentplans,taxpolicy,aboutwhetherGlazyevistakenseriouslyandwhetherKudrinisaroundjustforwindow
dressing.Arethesilovikytakingpartindiscussionsoneconomicpolicytemporarilyoristheyheretostay?
Putinwantstheeconomytoimprove,butwithoutchanginganythinginstitutionallyThewaytohaveinfluenceinRussiais
througharelationshipwithoneofPutinsfriends,whooftenhavemoreinfluencethanministers.Soinvestorswanttoknowwhata
particularpersonsaccesstoPutinreallyis,whatkindofinfluenceapersonmighthaveonaministerAndinvestorsseeasociety
thatisdistrustful,evenhatefultowardtheWest,onewhereoppositionpoliticalfiguresareindanger,whereonehastobewaryof
provocationsbycompetitorsAndtheYukoscase,theMagnitskiyaffair,andthecaseagainsttheownersandmanagersof
Domodedovoairportarestillverymuchonthemindsofforeigninvestors
InRussia,ifyoumoveoneway,youloseyourbusiness,anotherandyouloseyourlife.Ifyoumovejustright,youcanbecomea
billionaire
RussiasconciliatorygesturestoAmericaarebeingmadefortworeasons:One,becauseitistheAmericansblockingEuropean
revisionismregardingRussiaandtwo,becauseMoscowisworriedaboutreputationalscandalstheremaybemoretocome,
provokingaspiltintheRussianelite
HTTP://WWW.YAHOO.COM/NEWS/GERMANY-SLAMS-NATO-WARMONGERING-RUSSIA-115515814.HTML?REF=GS
GermanForeignMinisterFrank-WalterSteinmeierhascriticisedNATOforhavingabellicosepolicytowardsRussia,describingitas
"warmongering",theGermandailyBildreported.
SteinmeierpointedtothedeploymentofNATOtroopsnearborderswithRussiainthemilitaryalliance'sBalticandeastEuropean
memberstates.
"Whatweshouldavoidtodayisinflamingthesituationbywarmongeringandstompingboots,"SteinmeiertoldBildinaninterviewto
bepublishedSunday.
"Anyonewhothinksyoucanincreasesecurityinthealliancewithsymbolicparadesoftanksneartheeasternborders,ismistaken,"
Germany'stopdiplomatadded.
NATOhadannouncedonMondaythatitwoulddeployfourbattalionstoEstonia,Latvia,LithuaniaandPolandtocounteramore
assertiveRussia,aheadofalandmarksummitinWarsawnextmonth.
AllfourcountrieswereonceruledfromMoscowandremaindeeplysuspiciousofRussianintentions,especiallyafterRussia's
annexationofCrimeafromUkrainein2014.
InaninterviewwithBildonThursday,NATOchiefJensStoltenbergsaidRussiaisseekingtocreate"azoneofinfluencethrough
militarymeans".
"WeareobservingmassivemilitarisationatNATOborders--intheArctic,intheBaltic,fromtheBlackSeatotheMediterranean
Sea,"hetoldthenewspaper.
StoltenberghasstressedthatNATOdoesnotseekconfrontationwithRussiaandwantsaconstructivedialoguebutthatitwould
defendthe28alliesagainstanythreat
RussiabitterlyopposesNATO'sexpansionintoitsSoviet-erasatellitesandlastmonthsaiditwouldcreatethreenewdivisionsinits
southwestregiontomeetwhatitdescribedasadangerousmilitarybuild-upalongitsborders.
Senttime: 06/17/201601:02:16PM
To: JohnP.Williams<williamsjp@state.gov>FishelE@state.gov
Subject: PutinsaysacceptsU.S.issolesuperpower,dilutesTrumppraise|Reuters
RELATEDCOVERAGE
PresidentVladimirPutinsaidonFridayheacceptedtheUnitedStateswasprobablystilltheworld'ssolesuperpowerand
hewasreadytoworkwithwhoeverwonthepresidency,butdidn'twanttobetoldhowtolivebyAmericans.
race".
Thosecomments,alongwithwarmwordsfromTrumpaboutPutin,havefueledspeculationtheKremlinwouldbepleased
toseeTrumpintheWhiteHouse.
HeappearedkeenhowevertohedgeRussia'sbetsbyavoidingtheimpressionhewastakingsides,andalsoemphasized
his"warmrelations"withformerU.S.PresidentBillClinton,whosewifeHillaryisrunningfortheWhiteHouse.
(ReportingbyChristianLowe,AlexanderWinning,KatyaGolubkovaandElenaFabrichnayaWritingbyJasonBushand
PolinaDevittEditingbyAndrewOsborn)
SentfrommyiPad
IN18June16_0001.docx
Internet Notes 18 June 2016

More on the St. Petersburg Economic Forum (Putins speech and Q&A: Russia/NATO/ A new Cold
War?; Ukraine/the Minsk agreements; Syria/Assad/Elections; US presidential elections/Russia-US;
The doping scandal/Russian soccer fans).................................................................................................. 1
Stanovaya on the Economic Forum and foreign business .............................................................. 14
Solovey on gestures to America .......................................................................................................... 15
German foreign minister on NATO warmongering .................................................................... 15
More on the St. Petersburg Economic Forum (Putins speech and Q&A: Russia/NATO/ A
new Cold War?; Ukraine/the Minsk agreements; Syria/Assad/Elections; US presidential
elections/Russia-US; The doping scandal/Russian soccer fans)
See yesterdays notes.
I did a brief summary of Putins speech and included a link to the Russian in yesterdays notes.
Here are excerpts from an English version of the speech:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52178
The structural problems accumulated by the global economy still persist, and we have not yet put our
economy on the growth trajectory.
Incidentally, current geopolitical tensions are related, to some extent, to economic uncertainty
and the exhausting of the old sources of growth. There is a risk it may increase or even be artificially
provoked. It is our common interest to find a creative and constructive way out of this situation.
The worlds leading economies are looking for sources of growth, and they are looking to capitalise
on the enormous existing and growing potential of digital and industrial technologies, robotics, energy,
biotechnology, medicine and other fields. Discoveries in these areas can lead to true technological
revolutions, to an explosive growth of labour productivity. This is already happening and will happen
inevitably; there is impending restructuring of entire industries, the devaluation of many facilities
and assets. This will alter the demand for skills and competencies, and competition will escalate in both
traditional and emerging markets.
In fact, even today we can see attempts to secure or even monopolise the benefits of next generation
technologies. This, I think, is the motive behind the creation of restricted areas with regulatory barriers
to reduce the cross-flow of breakthrough technologies to other regions of the world with fairly tight control
over cooperation chains for maximum gain from technological advances. We have discussed this with our
colleagues; some say it is possible. I think not. One can control the spread of certain technologies
for a while, but in today's world it would be next to impossible to keep them in a contained area, even
a large area. Yet, these efforts could lead to basic sciences, now open to sharing of knowledge
and information through joint projects, getting closed too, with separation barriers coming up.
Over 40 states and international organisations have expressed the desire to establish a free trade zone
with the Eurasian Economic Union. Our partners and we think that the EAEU can become one
of the centres of a greater emergent integration area. Among other benefits, we can address ambitious
technological problems within its framework, promote technological progress and attract new members.
We discussed this in Astana quite recently. Now we propose considering the prospects for more
extensive Eurasian partnership involving the EAEU and countries with which we already have close
partnership China, India, Pakistan and Iran and certainly our CIS partners, and other interested
countries and associations.
As early as June we, along with our Chinese colleagues, are planning to start official talks
on the formation of comprehensive trade and economic partnership in Eurasia with the participation
of the European Union states and China. I expect that this will become one of the first steps toward
the formation of a major Eurasian partnership. We will certainly resume the discussion of this major
project at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok in early September. Colleagues, I would like
to take this opportunity to invite all of you to take part in it.
Friends, the project I have just mentioned the greater Eurasia project is, of course, open for Europe,
and I am convinced that such cooperation may be mutually beneficial. Despite all of the well-known
problems in our relations, the European Union remains Russias key trade and economic partner. It is our
next-door neighbour and we are not indifferent to what is happening in the lives of our neighbours,
European countries and the European economy.
The challenge of the technological revolution and structural changes are no less urgent for the EU than
for Russia. I also understand our European partners when they talk about the complicated decisions
for Europe that were made at the talks on the formation of the Trans-Atlantic partnership. Obviously,
Europe has a vast potential and a stake on just one regional association clearly narrows its opportunities.
Under the circumstances, it is difficult for Europe to maintain balance and preserve space for a gainful
manoeuvre.
As the recent meetings with representatives of the German and French business circles have showed,
European business is willing and ready to cooperate with this country. Politicians should meet businesses
halfway by displaying wisdom, and a far-sighted and flexible approach. We must return trust to Russian-
European relations and restore the level of our cooperation.
We remember how it all started. Russia did not initiate the current breakdown, disruption, problems
and sanctions. All our actions have been exclusively reciprocal. But we dont hold a grudge, as they say,
and are ready to meet our European partners halfway. However, this can by no means be a one-way
street.
Let me repeat that we are interested in Europeans joining the project for a major Eurasian partnership.
In this context we welcome the initiative of the President of Kazakhstan on holding consultations between
the Eurasian Economic Union and the EU. Yesterday we discussed this issue at the meeting with
the President of the European Commission.
Russia has managed to resolve the most urgent current problems in the economy. We hope growth
will resume in the near future. We have maintained reserves and substantially reduced capital drain
by five times compared with the first quarter of 2016. Inflation is going down as well. It has fallen almost
in half if we compare several months in 20142015 with the same period in 20152016. I believe that it is
possible to bring inflation down to 45 percent as early as in the mid-term perspective.
In addition, it is necessary to gradually decrease the budget deficit and the dependence on revenues from
hydrocarbons and other raw materials. This includes cutting our non-oil and gas deficit at least in half
in the next 5 to 7 years.
The current slowdown is a global trend.
A key factor that predetermines the overall competitiveness of the economy, market dynamics, GDP
growth and higher wages is labor productivity. We need higher labor productivity at large and medium-
sized enterprises: in industry, in the construction and the transport sectors and in agriculture no less
than 5 percent a year. This appears to be a challenging and even unattainable goal, if we look at what is
happening here today. At the same time, the examples of numerous enterprises, as well as of entire
manufacturing sectors, such as the aircraft industry, the chemical industry, pharmaceutics and agriculture,
show that this goal is quite feasible and realistic.
We will develop legislation, tax regulators and technical standards to incentivise companies to raise
labour productivity and introduce labour and energy saving technology. With the growth of labour
productivity, inefficient employment will inevitably shrink, which means we will need to substantially
increase the labour markets flexibility, to offer people new opportunities. We will be able to resolve this
problem primarily by creating more jobs at small and medium-sized businesses. The number of people
(what I am going to say is very important) employed at small and medium-sized businesses should grow
from today's 18 million by at least 1.4 million by 2020 and by more than 3 million by 2025. It will be difficult
to increase support for small and medium-sized businesses, and still harder to consistently build a niche
for its operation. But it needs to be done.
I should add that our import replacement programme is also aimed at manufacturing goods that are
competitive on the global market. And in this sense, I would also like to stress that import replacement is
an important stage for expanding exports in sectors other than raw materials and finding a place for our
companies in global manufacturing and technological alliances and not in secondary roles, but
as strong and effective partners.
Friends, we will continue to further liberalise and improve the business climate. I know a great deal has
been said about this at forum events today and yesterday. We will tackle systemic problems, of which we
still have plenty. This includes improving transparency and balancing relations between government
agencies and businesses. These relations should be built on understanding and mutual responsibility,
meticulous observance and compliance with laws and respect for the interests of the state and society,
and the unconditional value of the institution of private property.
It is essential to drastically reduce illegal criminal prosecutions. Furthermore, representatives of security
and law enforcement agencies should be made personally liable for unjustified actions leading
to the destruction of a business enterprise. I believe that this liability can be criminal.
I realize that this is a very sensitive issue. We cannot and should not bind our law enforcement agencies
hand and foot. However, without a doubt, there is a need for balance here, for a firm barrier to any
abuses of power. The leadership of the Prosecutor Generals Office, the Investigative Committee,
the Interior Ministry and the Federal Security Service should continuously monitor the situation
on the ground and, if necessary, take measures to improve legislation.
I ask the working group on law enforcement in entrepreneurial activity, which is headed by Chief of Staff
of the Presidential Executive Office Sergei Ivanov, to focus on these issues as well. I should add that
I have already submitted to parliament a package of draft laws prepared by the working group, designed
to humanise the so-called economic statutes [of the Criminal Code]. That said, it is also important
to guarantee businesses and all citizens the right to fair and impartial defence in court.
The Russian judicial community has done a good deal recently to improve the quality of the court system.
The merging of the Supreme and the Higher Arbitration courts has played a positive role in ensuring
the uniformity of law enforcement. I believe it is necessary to move further toward enhancing
the responsibility of judges and making the judicial process more transparent.
A major role in creating a favorable business environment, without a doubt, belongs to Russian regions.
I know that this was discussed at forum events in the morning, and the results of the annual national
investment climate ratings were announced. I would like to join in congratulating the winners and remind
you that these are Tatarstan and the Belgorod and Kaluga regions. I would also like to note the significant
progress made by the Tula, Vladimir, Tyumen, Kirov, Lipetsk and Orel regions, and the city of Moscow.
What stands out here? Judging by the results, a core group of leaders has already emerged, who are
invariably at the top of rankings. The natural question is: Where are the others? I ask the Government,
in conjunction with business communities, to consider additional mechanisms to reward the best regional
administrative teams. On the other hand, we will take serious measures, including dismissals, with regard
to regional leaders who do not understand that business support is a major resource for regional
and national development. I would like my colleagues in the regions, above all, regional leaders to hear
me. We will seriously analyse what is happening in this sphere in each Russian region and discuss
the issue in depth in the autumn.
Ladies and gentlemen, I have already talked about Russias participation in cooperative scientific
research projects, in particular with European countries. It is essential to add that we have a core
advantages in physics, mathematics and chemistry. As you know, recently we honoured scientists who
won the National Award, who have made brilliant breakthroughs in biology, genetics and medicine.
Russian microbiologists have developed, for example, an effective vaccine against Ebola. National
companies are going to bring an entire line of unmanned vehicles to the market and are working
on energy distribution and storage, and digital sea navigation systems. We have practically put in place
a technological development management system. What does this entail and what would I like to say
in this context?
First. The recently formed Technology Development Agency will help apply current research to real
manufacturing and set up joint ventures with foreign partners.
Second. Another mechanism will be in use starting in 2019. Major manufacturers will be made legally
bound to use the most advanced technologies meeting the highest environmental standards. Hopefully,
this will give a serious boost to industrial modernisation. Many neighbouring countries introduced such
requirements long ago. We have had to put off these changes due to problems in the real economic
sectors, but we cant keep postponing it any more. Our business colleagues know this and must be
prepared.
And finally, third. The National Technology Initiative covers projects of the future based on technologies
that will create fundamentally new markets in a decade or two. I would like to ask the Government
to promptly remove administrative, legislative and other obstacles blocking the development of future
markets. It is essential to back up technological development with financial resources. Therefore, the key
task facing the overhauled Vnesheconombank will be to support long-term projects, attractive projects
in this high-tech sector.
We clearly understand that it is people who create and use technologies. Talented researchers, qualified
engineers and workers play a crucial role in making the national economy competitive. Therefore
education is something we should pay particular attention to in the next few years.
Colleagues, obviously the issues that we are facing call for new approaches toward development
management, and here we are determined to make active use of the project principle. A presidential
council for strategic development and priority projects will be created in the near future. It will be headed
by your humble servant, while the council presidium will be led by Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.
The council will deal with key projects aimed at effecting structural changes in the economy and the social
sphere, and increasing growth rates. I have spoken about some of these projects today: raising labour
productivity, the business climate, support for small and medium-sized business, and export support,
among others.
Plenary session moderator, CNN host Fareed Zakaria: Thank you to all three of you: two presidents,
one prime minister, though in Italy, you are allowed to say President Renzi also. By the format we have
agreed upon, what I will do is we will begin this discussion first with our host president, President Putin,
and then I will widen that conversation to include Prime Minister Renzi and President Nazarbayev. We
started a little bit late, so we will go a little bit longer.
President Putin, let me ask you a very simple question. Since 2014, you have had European Union
sanctions and US sanctions against Russia. NATO has announced just this week that it is going to build
up forces in states that border Russia. Russia has announced its own buildup. Are we settling into a low-
grade, lower-level cold war between the West and Russia?
Vladimir Putin: I do not want to believe that we are moving towards another Cold War, and I am sure
nobody wants this. We certainly do not. There is no need for this. The main logic behind international
relations development is that no matter how dramatic it might seem, it is not the logic of global
confrontation. What is the root of the problem?
I will tell you. I will have to take you back in time. After the collapse of the Soviet Union, we expected
overall prosperity and overall trust. Unfortunately, Russia had to face numerous challenges, speaking
in modern terms: economic, social and domestic policy. We came up against separatism, radicalism,
aggression of international terror, because undoubtedly we were fighting against Al Qaeda militants
in the Caucasus, it is an obvious fact, and there can be no second thoughts about it. But instead
of support from our partners in our struggle with these problems, we sadly came across something
different support for the separatists. We were told, We do not accept your separatists at the top political
level, only at the technological.
Very well. We appreciate it. But we also saw information support, financial support and administrative
backup.
Later, after we tackled those problems, went through serious hardships, we came to face another thing.
The Soviet Union was no more; the Warsaw Pact had ceased to exist. But for some reason, NATO
continues to expand its infrastructure towards Russias borders. It started long before yesterday.
Montenegro is becoming a [NATO] member. Who is threatening Montenegro? You see, our position is
being totally ignored.
Another, equally important, or perhaps, the most important issue is the unilateral withdrawal [of the US]
from the ABM Treaty. The ABM Treaty was once concluded between the Soviet Union and the United
States for a good reason. Two regions were allowed to stay Moscow and the site of US ICBM silos.
The treaty was designed to provide a strategic balance in the world. However, they unilaterally quit
the treaty, saying in a friendly manner, This is not aimed against you. You want to develop your offensive
arms, and we assume it is not aimed against us.
You know why they said so? It is simple: nobody expected Russia in the early 2000s, when it was
struggling with its domestic problems, torn apart by internal conflicts, political and economic problems,
tortured by terrorists, to restore its defence sector. Clearly, nobody expected us to be able to maintain our
arsenals, let alone have new strategic weapons. They thought they would build up their missile defence
forces unilaterally while our arsenals would be shrinking.
All of this was done under the pretext of combatting the Iranian nuclear threat. What has become
of the Iranian nuclear threat now? There is none, but the project continues. This is the way it is, step
by step, one after another, and so on.
Then they began to support all kinds of colour revolutions, including the so-called Arab Spring. They
fervently supported it. How many positive takes did we hear on what was going on? What did it lead to?
Chaos.
I am not interested in laying blame now. I simply want to say that if this policy of unilateral actions
continues and if steps in the international arena that are very sensitive to the international community are
not coordinated then such consequences are inevitable. Conversely, if we listen to one another and seek
out a balance of interests, this will not happen. Yes, it is a difficult process, the process of reaching
agreement, but it is the only path to acceptable solutions.
I believe that if we ensure such cooperation, there will be no talk of a cold war. After all, since the Arab
Spring, they have already approached our borders. Why did they have to support the coup in Ukraine?
I have often spoken about this. The internal political situation there is complicated and the opposition that
is in power now would most likely have come to power democratically, through elections. Thats it. We
would have worked with them as we had with the government that was in power before President
Yanukovych.
But no, they had to proceed with a coup, casualties, unleash bloodshed, a civil war, and scare
the Russian-speaking population of southeastern Ukraine and Crimea. All for the sake of what? And after
we had to, simply had to take measures to protect certain social groups, they began to escalate
the situation, ratcheting up tensions. In my opinion, this is being done, among other things, to justify
the existence of the North Atlantic bloc. They need an external adversary, an external enemy otherwise
why is this organisation necessary in the first place? There is no Warsaw Pact, no Soviet Union who is it
directed against?
If we continue to act according to this logic, escalating [tensions] and redoubling efforts to scare each
other, then one day it will come to a cold war. Our logic is totally different. It is focused on cooperation
and the search for compromise. (Applause.)
Fareed Zakaria: So let me ask you, Mr President, then what is the way out? Because I saw an interview
of yours that you did with Die Welt, the German newspaper, in which you said, the key problem is that
the Minsk Accords have not been implemented by the Government in Ukraine, by Kiev, the constitutional
reforms. They say on the other side that in Eastern Ukraine, the violence has not come down,
and the separatists are not restraining themselves, and they believe Russia should help. So since neither
side seems to back down, will the sanctions just continue, will this low-grade cold war just continue? What
is the way out?
Vladimir Putin: And it is all about people, no matter what you call them. It is about people trying to protect
their legal rights and interests, who fear repression if these interests are not upheld at the political level.
If we look at the Minsk agreements, there are only a few points, and we discussed them all through
the night. What was the bone of contention? What aspect is of primary importance? And we agreed
ultimately that political solutions that ensure the security of people living in Donbass were the priority.
What are these political solutions? They are laid down in detail in the agreements. Constitutional
amendments that had to be adopted by the end of 2015. But where are they? They are nowhere to be
seen. The law on a special status of these territories, which we call unrecognized republics, should have
been put into practice. The law has been passed by the countrys parliament but still hasnt come into
effect. There should have been an amnesty law. It was passed by the Ukrainian parliament but was never
signed by the president, it has no effect.
What kind of elections are we talking about? What sort of election process can be organised during
an anti-terrorist operation? Do any countries do that? We do not talk about it, but does any other country
hold election campaigns when an anti-terrorist operation is taking place on its territory?
They [elections] have to be cancelled and our work should focus on economic and humanitarian
restoration. Nothing is being done, nothing at all. Postponing these problems over on-going violence
on the frontlines is just an excuse. What is happening in reality is that both sides are accusing each other
of opening fire. Why do you think it is separatists who are shooting? If you ask them, they say, It is
Ukrainian government forces, the Ukrainian army.
One side opens fire, the other side responds thats what exchanging fire means. Do you think this is
a good enough reason to delay political reforms? On the contrary, political reforms that will constitute
the foundation of a final settlement on security are a pressing priority.
Some things have to be done in parallel. I agree with Mr Poroshenko that the OSCE mission has to be
reinforced to the point of authorizing OSCE observers to carry firearms. Other things can be done
to improve security. But we cannot afford to continue putting off key political decision by citing the lack
of security in the area. Thats it. (Applause.)
Fareed Zakaria: There are so many areas to cover with you, Mr President, so let me go to the Middle
East, where Russia has had a forceful intervention to bolster the Assad regime. President Assad now
says that his goal is to take back every square inch of his territory. Do you believe that the solution
in Syria is that the Assad regime should take back and govern every square inch of Syria?
Vladimir Putin: I think that the problems of Syria, of course, concern primarily the anti-terrorist struggle,
but there is more to it. It goes without saying that the Syrian conflict is rooted in contradictions within
Syrian society, and President Bashar al-Assad understands this very well. The task is not just to expand
control over various territories, although this is very important. The point is to ensure the confidence
of the entire society and trust between different parts of this society, and to establish on this foundation
a modern and efficient government that will be trusted by the countrys entire population. And political
negotiations are the only road to this. We have urged this more than once. President al-Assad also spoke
about this he accepts this process.
What needs to be done today? It is necessary to join more actively the process of forming the new
Constitution and to conduct, on this basis, future elections, both presidential and parliamentary. When
President al-Assad was in Moscow, we spoke about this with him and he fully agreed with this. Moreover,
it is extremely important to conduct the elections under strict international control, with the participation
of the United Nations. Yesterday we discussed this issue in detail with Mr de Mistura and the UN
Secretary-General. They all agree with this, but we need action. We hope very much that our partners,
primarily from the United States, will work with their allies that support the opposition to encourage
constructive cooperation with the Syrian authorities.
What do we mean by this? In general, when I ask my colleagues: Why are you doing this? they reply:
To assert the principles of democracy. President al-Assads regime is not democratic and the triumph
of democracy must be ensured. Fine. Is democracy everywhere there? No, not yet but democracy
should exist in Syria. Ok. And how do you make society democratic? Is it only possible to achieve this
by force of arms or simply by force? No, this may be done only with the help of democratic institutions
and procedures. And what are they all about? There is no more democratic way of forming a government
than elections on the basis of fundamental law: a Constitution that is formulated in a clear way, that is
transparent and accepted by the overwhelming majority of society. Pass the Constitution and hold
elections on its basis. Whats bad about this, especially if they are held under international control?
Occasionally we hear that some countries of the region do not fully understand what democracy is. Do we
want to replace one undemocratic regime with another undemocratic one? And if we still want to promote
the principle of democracy lets do this by democratic means. But considering this is a complicated
process and results will not come tomorrow or the day after tomorrow but will require time, while we still
need to do something today, I agree with the proposals of our partners, primarily our American partners
that suggest (I dont know, maybe Im saying too much although, on the other hand, this US proposal is
known in the region, and the negotiators of both sides the government and the opposition are familiar
with it and I consider it absolutely acceptable), they suggested considering the possibility of bringing
representatives of the opposition into existing power structures, for instance, the Government. It is
necessary to think about what powers this Government will have.
However, it is important not to go too far. It is necessary to proceed from the current realities
and to refrain from declaring unfeasible, unrealistic goals. Many of our partners are saying that Assad
should go. Today they are saying no, lets restructure governing institutions in such and such a way, but
in practical terms it will also mean his departure. But this is also unrealistic. Therefore, it is necessary
to act carefully, step by step, gradually winning the confidence of all sides to the conflict.
If this happens, and I think this will happen in any event and the sooner the better, it will be possible to go
further and speak both about subsequent elections and a final settlement. The main point is to prevent
the countrys collapse. And if things continue to go as they are today, collapse will become inevitable.
And this is the worst-case scenario because we cannot assume that after the countrys collapse some
quasi-state formations will co-exist in peace and harmony. No, this will be a destabilising factor
for the region and the rest of the world.
Fareed Zakaria: Let me ask you, Mr President, about another democracy that is having a very different
kind of drama. You made some comments about the American Republican presumptive nominee, Donald
Trump. You called him brilliant, outstanding, talented. These comments were reported around the world.
I was wondering, what in him led you to that judgement, and do you still hold that judgement?
Vladimir Putin: You are well known in our country, you personally. Not only as a host of a major TV
corporation, but also as an intellectual. Why are you distorting everything? The journalist in you is getting
the better of the analyst. Look, what did I say? I said in passing that Trump is a vivid personality. Is he
not? He is. I did not ascribe any other characteristics to him. However, what I definitely note and what
I definitely welcome and I see nothing wrong about this, just the opposite is that Mr Trump said that
he is ready for the full-scale restoration of Russian-US relations. What is wrong with that? We all welcome
this! Dont you?
We never interfere in the internal politics of other countries, especially the United States. However, we will
work with any president that the US people vote for. Although I do not think, by the way, that Well, they
lecture everyone on how to live and on democracy. Now, do you really think presidential elections there
are democratic? Look, twice in US history a president was elected by a majority of electors, but standing
behind those electors was a smaller number of voters. Is that democracy? And when (sometimes we
have debates with our colleagues; we never accuse anyone of anything, we simply have debates) we are
told: Do not meddle in our affairs. Mind your own business. This is how we do things, we feel like saying:
Well then, do not meddle in our affairs. Why do you? Put your own house in order first.
But, to reiterate, indeed, this is none of our business although, in my opinion, even prosecutors there
chase international observers away from polling stations during election campaigns. US prosecutors
threaten to jail them. However, these are their own problems; this is how they do things and they like it.
America is a great power, today perhaps the only superpower. We accept this. We want to work with
the United States and we are prepared to. No matter how these elections go, eventually they will take
place. There will be a [new] head of state with extensive powers. There are complicated internal political
and economic processes at work in the United States. The world needs a powerful country like the United
States, and we also need it. But we do not need it to continuously interfere in our affairs, telling us how
to live, and preventing Europe from building a relationship with us.
How are the sanctions that you have mentioned affecting the United States? In no way whatsoever. It
could not care less about these sanctions because the consequences of our actions in response have no
impact on it. They impact Europe but not the United States. Zero effect. However, the Americans are
telling their partners: Be patient. Why should they? I do not understand. If they want to, let them.
We do not lavish praise on anybody. Its none of our business. As Germans say, this is not our beer.
Because when they make their choice, we will work with any president who has received the support
of the American people, in the hope that it will be a person who seeks to develop relations with our
country and help build a more secure world.
Fareed Zakaria: Just to be clear, Mr President, the word brilliant was in the Interfax translation, I realize
that other translations might say bright, but I used the official Interfax translation. But let me ask you
about another person you have dealt with a great deal. Mr Trump, you've never met. Hillary Clinton was
Secretary of State. In your very long questions and answers with the Russian people, you made a joke
when somebody asked you about her you said, I think that the Russia idiom is, the husband and wife is
the same devil. And what it means in the English version is, it's two sides of the same coin. What did you
mean by that, and how did she do as Secretary of State? You dealt with her extensively.
Vladimir Putin: I did not work with her, Lavrov did. Ask him. He is sitting here.
I was not a foreign minister, but Sergei Lavrov was. He will soon tie [Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei]
Gromyko. (Addressing Sergei Lavrov.) How long have you been in office?
I worked with Bill Clinton, although for a very short time, and we had a very good relationship. I can even
say that I am grateful to him for certain moments as I was entering the big stage in politics. On several
occasions, he showed signs of attention, respect for me personally, as well as for Russia. I remember this
and I am grateful to him.
About Ms Clinton. Perhaps she has her own view on the development of Russian-US relations. You
know, there is something I would like to draw [your] attention to, which has nothing to do with Russian-US
relations or with national politics. It is related, rather, to personnel policy.
In my experience, I have often seen what happens with people before they take on a certain job
and afterward. Often, you cannot recognise them, because once they reach a new level of responsibility
they begin to talk and think differently, they even look different. We act on the assumption that the sense
of responsibility of the US head of state, the head of the country on which a great deal in the world
depends today, that this sense of responsibility will encourage the newly elected president to cooperate
with Russia and, I would like to repeat, build a more secure world.
Fareed Zakaria: President Putin, let me finally ask you one question about news reports about Russian
athletes. There are now two major investigations that have shown that Russian athletes have engaged
in doping on a massive scale, and that there has been a systematic evasion and doctoring of testing
and lab samples. And I was just wondering what you reaction to these reports is.
Vladimir Putin: I did not understand what kind of programme it is to tamper with the samples that were
collected for tests? If samples are collected they are immediately transferred to international
organisations for storage and we have nothing to do with them. Samples are collected and taken
somewhere, to Lausanne or wherever, I do not know where, but they are not on Russian territory. They
can be opened, re-checked, and this is what specialists are doing now.
Doping is not only a Russian problem. It is a problem of the entire sports world. If somebody tries
to politicise something in this sphere, I think this is a big mistake, because just like culture, for example,
sport cannot be politicised. These are the bridges that bring people, nations and states closer together.
This is the way to approach it, not try to forge some anti-Russian or anti-whatever policy on this basis.
As for the Russian authorities, I can assure you, we are categorically against all doping for several
reasons. First, as a former amateur athlete, I can tell you, and I think that the overwhelming majority
of people will agree with this: if we know there is doping, its not interesting to watch the event; millions
of fans lose interest in the sport.
Second, no less important, and maybe even most important, there is the health of the athletes
themselves. You cant justify anything that damages health. This is why we have combated and will
continue to combat doping in sport on the national level.
Furthermore, as far as I know, the Prosecutor Generals Office and the Investigative Committee have
been closely looking into all facts reported in the media, among others. Simply, this must not be turned
into a campaign, especially a campaign disparaging sport, including Russian sport.
Next, the third point I would like to make. There is a legal concept that says responsibility can only be
individual. Collective responsibility cannot be imposed on all athletes or athletes of a certain sports
federation if certain individuals have been caught doping. An entire team cannot be held responsible
for those who have committed this violation. I believe that this is an absolutely natural, correct approach.
However, doping is not the only problem today. There are plenty of problems in sport. Euro 2016 is
underway. I believe that less attention is being paid to football than to brawling between fans. This is very
sad and I regret this, but here too we should always proceed from some general criteria. To reiterate,
responsibility for misconduct should be individualised as much as possible and the approach toward
perpetrators should be the same.
Euro 2016 began with a high-profile case: a fight between Russian and British fans. This is absolutely
outrageous. Granted, I do not know how 200 Russian fans were able to pummel several thousand
Britons. I do not understand. But in any case, law enforcement agencies should take the same approach
toward all perpetrators.
This is the way we have organised this work and will continue to combat doping and enforce discipline
among fans. We will work with these fan associations. I very much hope that there are plenty
of intelligent, sensible people among the fans, who really love sport and who understand that violations
do nothing to support their team but, on the contrary, cause damage to the team and to sport. However,
a great deal has yet to be done here, including in conjunction with our [foreign] colleagues.
I would like to stress that there has been absolutely no support and can be absolutely no support
for violations in sport, let alone doping violations, at the state level. We have worked and will continue
to work with all international organisations in this sphere.
<>
Stanovaya on the Economic Forum and foreign business
https://slon.ru/posts/69481
This is the first St. Petersburg forum not shunned by Western political elites in a couple of
yearsRussia wants to show Western business that there are possibilities for reformThe
sanctions have not been removed, the Minsk agreements not fulfilled, but there has been a
certain lowering of tensionsThe Kremlin is cautiously rehabilitating the systemic liberals
Kudrin has informal status as the main reformer, with assistance from GrefVlast, not very
convincingly, is making noises about improving conditions for private business Gestures have
been made to ease tensions with the WestSavchenko, for example, was releasedtheres a
certain weariness with confrontationThere has been some movement away from the
conservative trend domesticallyPavlenskiy has been released
(http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-pavlensky-artist-fined-cultural-site-fsb/27786266.html
)...The message to Western investors is clearRussia does not want to be North Korea or even
BelarusRussia needs direct investment and budget problems are pushing vlast toward making
a political decision on structural reforms
The weariness of both Russia and the West with sanctions in the mid-term could at least lead to
their weakening. The decline of the economy has slowed down and some optimists expect
growth by the end of the year The Ukraine crisis could be routinized, pushed to the back
burner in favor of cooperating on combatting terrorismPutin wants to lower tensions with the
Americans
Yet the arbitrary behavior of courts, tax terrorism, corruption, and nightmaring businesses
have only become worseAverage investors without special connections are waiting for a sign
of vlasts intensions and of a more transparent economic policyIts doubtful that will
happenand foreign business surely understands thatForeign investors want to know about
concrete economic development plans, tax policy, about whether Glazyev is taken seriously and
whether Kudrin is around just for window dressing. Are the siloviky taking part in discussions on
economic policy temporarily or is they here to stay?
Putin wants the economy to improve, but without changing anything institutionallyThe way
to have influence in Russia is through a relationship with one of Putins friends, who often have
more influence than ministers. So investors want to know what a particular persons access to
Putin really is, what kind of influence a person might have on a ministerAnd investors see a
society that is distrustful, even hateful toward the West, one where opposition political figures
are in danger, where one has to be wary of provocations by competitorsAnd the Yukos case,
the Magnitskiy affair, and the case against the owners and managers of Domodedovo airport are
still very much on the minds of foreign investors
In Russia, if you move one way, you lose your business, another and you lose your life. If you
move just right, you can become a billionaire
Solovey on gestures to America
Russias conciliatory gestures to America are being made for two reasons: One, because it is the
Americans blocking European revisionism regarding Russia; and two, because Moscow is
worried about reputational scandalsthere may be more to come, provoking a spilt in the
Russian elite
German foreign minister on NATO warmongering
HTTPS://WWW.YAHOO.COM/NEWS/GERMANY-SLAMS-NATO-WARMONGERING-RUSSIA-
115515814.HTML?REF=GS
German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier has criticised NATO for having a bellicose policy
towards Russia, describing it as "warmongering", the German daily Bild reported.
Steinmeier pointed to the deployment of NATO troops near borders with Russia in the military alliance's
Baltic and east European member states.
"What we should avoid today is inflaming the situation by warmongering and stomping boots,"
Steinmeier told Bild in an interview to be published Sunday.
"Anyone who thinks you can increase security in the alliance with symbolic parades of tanks near the
eastern borders, is mistaken," Germany's top diplomat added.
NATO had announced on Monday that it would deploy four battalions to Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and
Poland to counter a more assertive Russia, ahead of a landmark summit in Warsaw next month.
All four countries were once ruled from Moscow and remain deeply suspicious of Russian intentions,
especially after Russia's annexation of Crimea from Ukraine in 2014.
In an interview with Bild on Thursday, NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg said Russia is seeking to create "a
zone of influence through military means".
"We are observing massive militarisation at NATO borders -- in the Arctic, in the Baltic, from the Black
Sea to the Mediterranean Sea," he told the newspaper.
Stoltenberg has stressed that NATO does not seek confrontation with Russia and wants a constructive
dialogue but that it would defend the 28 allies against any threat
Russia bitterly opposes NATO's expansion into its Soviet-era satellites and last month said it would
create three new divisions in its southwest region to meet what it described as a dangerous military
build-up along its borders.
Senttime: 06/17/201601:02:00PM
To: ChristopherBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
BCc: ottorc@state.gov
Subject: PutinsaysacceptsU.S.issolesuperpower,dilutesTrumppraise|Reuters
RELATEDCOVERAGE
PresidentVladimirPutinsaidonFridayheacceptedtheUnitedStateswasprobablystilltheworld'ssolesuperpowerand
hewasreadytoworkwithwhoeverwonthepresidency,butdidn'twanttobetoldhowtolivebyAmericans.
race".
Thosecomments,alongwithwarmwordsfromTrumpaboutPutin,havefueledspeculationtheKremlinwouldbepleased
toseeTrumpintheWhiteHouse.
HeappearedkeenhowevertohedgeRussia'sbetsbyavoidingtheimpressionhewastakingsides,andalsoemphasized
his"warmrelations"withformerU.S.PresidentBillClinton,whosewifeHillaryisrunningfortheWhiteHouse.
(ReportingbyChristianLowe,AlexanderWinning,KatyaGolubkovaandElenaFabrichnayaWritingbyJasonBushand
PolinaDevittEditingbyAndrewOsborn)
SentfrommyiPad
From: eugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
Senttime: 06/16/201604:27:50PM
Subject: Re:Really,Trenin-Lukyanov?RussiadeniesDNChackandsaysmaybesomeoneforgotthepassword-TheWashingtonPost
Hmmm...Polozhenieobyazyvaet
SentfrommyiPhone
OnJun16,2016,at6:50PM,ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/pb/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/15/russias-unusual-response-to-
charges-it-hacked-research-on-trump/
RussiadeniesDNChackandsaysmaybe
someoneforgotthepassword
<imrs.php>
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinduringameetingofASEAN-RussiaBusinessForummembersin
Sochi,Russia,onMay20,2016.(PoolphotobyHostPhotoAgencyviaEPA)
MOSCOWWhenRussiafacesuncomfortableaccusationsfromabroad,theKremlinnormally
lashesbackwithofficialdeclarationsandscornfulcommentsonstatetelevision.
ButwhentheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandcybersecurityexpertstoldTheWashingtonPostthat
Russiangovernmenthackershadstolenanentiredatabaseofoppositionresearchonpresumptive
GOPpresidentialnomineeDonaldTrump,officialsheremettheaccusationswithlittlemorethana
simpledenialandashrug.
"Usuallythesekindsofleakstakeplacenotbecausehackersbrokein,but,asanyprofessionalwilltell
you,becausesomeonesimplyforgotthepasswordorsetthesimplepassword123456,"German
Klimenko,Putin'stopInternetadviser,saidinremarkscarriedbytheRIANovostistatenewsagency.
"Well,it'salwayssimplertoexplainthisawayastheintriguesofenemies,ratherthanone'sown
incompetence."
"Iabsolutelyruleoutthepossibilitythatthegovernmentorgovernmentagencieswereinvolvedinthis,"
DmitryPeskov,aspokesmanforPresidentVladimirPutin,toldjournalistsinacurtstatement.
[RussiangovernmenthackerspenetratedDNC,stoleoppositionresearchonTrump]
WesternofficialshaveaccusedRussiaofconductingacampaignofhigh-profilehackingattacksthat
haveincludedcyberattacksin2007againstEstonia,a2014assaultonUkraine'spowergridanda
breachoftheWhiteHouse'sunclassifiedemailserverlastyear.Thelatestrevelationsriskedplungingthe
KremlinintothemidstofaheatedU.S.electioncyclethathascapturedtheattentionofaMoscow
eliteeagerforchangeinWashington.
Overtheyears,theKremlinhasgrownusedtobrushingoffthesekindsofaccusations.Reportsof
hackinghavebecome"ubiquitous,"DmitriTrenin,directoroftheCarnegieMoscowCenteranda
formerRussianarmyofficer,saidbytelephone."Idon'tthinkthatit'ssomethingtheywillbereallytalking
muchaboutorworriedabout."
Moststatetelevisionchannels,throughwhichthevastmajorityofRussiansgettheirinformation,didnot
airreportsontheallegations.Someofthefewofficialcomments,postedonlinebyRussiannews
agencies,weredismissive.
WorldViewsnewsletter
Importantstoriesfromaroundtheworld.
RussianofficialshaveaddressedtheU.S.electionssparingly.Putinhasofferedguardedpraise
forTrump,callinghim"lively"and"talented"duringanationallytelevisednewsconferenceinDecember.
But,onthewhole,theRussianleaderhasstayedsilentontheU.S.presidentialrace.
FyodorLukyanov,awell-connectedpoliticalanalystinMoscowandtheeditorofRussiainGlobal
Affairs,aforeignpolicyjournal,saidthatthereisgreatinterestintheU.S.electionsamongRussianelites
andthatmanyseeTrumpaspotentiallyabetterpartnerforRussiathanHillaryClinton.
"Idon'tseewhytheywouldbeinterestedindoingthis,whichwouldjustelectrifythecampaignofthe
Democraticcandidate,"Lukyanovsaid,notingthathewasn'tbriefedonthespecificsofthe
hackingcase."Ithinkinthecaseofthesereportsthatmanypeoplearejustusedtoseeingthescary
ghostofMr.Putin."
Treninechoedthatthought."Iwouldbesuspiciousthatthatwouldbeatargetofimportancetoforeign
intelligence,"hesaid.TheDNCisa"soft"targetcomparedwiththeNationalSecurityCouncil,he
added."Theywouldlikelyspendtheirresourceselsewhere.Thenagain,Idon'tknow."
Readmore:
JustbecauseRussianslikePutindoesntmeantheyrehappyabouttheeconomy
ThePutin-Trumpkissbeingsharedaroundtheworld
Thenot-completely-crazytheorythatRussialeakedthePanamaPapers
Senttime: 06/16/201603:50:10PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.comEugeneRumer<rumereugene@gmail.com>
Subject: Really,Trenin-Lukyanov?RussiadeniesDNChackandsaysmaybesomeoneforgotthepassword-TheWashingtonPost
http://www.washingtonpost.com/pb/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/15/russias-unusual-response-to-charges-it-hacked-
research-on-trump/
RussiadeniesDNChackandsaysmaybesomeone
forgotthepassword
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinduringameetingofASEAN-RussiaBusinessForummembersinSochi,Russia,onMay
20,2016.(PoolphotobyHostPhotoAgencyviaEPA)
MOSCOWWhenRussiafacesuncomfortableaccusationsfromabroad,theKremlinnormallylashesbackwithofficial
declarationsandscornfulcommentsonstatetelevision.
ButwhentheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandcybersecurityexpertstoldTheWashingtonPostthatRussian
governmenthackershadstolenanentiredatabaseofoppositionresearchonpresumptiveGOPpresidential
nomineeDonaldTrump,officialsheremettheaccusationswithlittlemorethanasimpledenialandashrug.
"Usuallythesekindsofleakstakeplacenotbecausehackersbrokein,but,asanyprofessionalwilltellyou,because
someonesimplyforgotthepasswordorsetthesimplepassword123456,"GermanKlimenko,Putin'stopInternet
adviser,saidinremarkscarriedbytheRIANovostistatenewsagency."Well,it'salwayssimplertoexplainthisawayasthe
intriguesofenemies,ratherthanone'sownincompetence."
"Iabsolutelyruleoutthepossibilitythatthegovernmentorgovernmentagencieswereinvolvedinthis,"DmitryPeskov,a
spokesmanforPresidentVladimirPutin,toldjournalistsinacurtstatement.
[RussiangovernmenthackerspenetratedDNC,stoleoppositionresearchonTrump]
WesternofficialshaveaccusedRussiaofconductingacampaignofhigh-profilehackingattacksthathaveincluded
cyberattacksin2007againstEstonia,a2014assaultonUkraine'spowergridandabreachoftheWhiteHouse's
unclassifiedemailserverlastyear.ThelatestrevelationsriskedplungingtheKremlinintothemidstofaheated
U.S.electioncyclethathascapturedtheattentionofaMoscoweliteeagerforchangeinWashington.
Overtheyears,theKremlinhasgrownusedtobrushingoffthesekindsofaccusations.Reportsofhackinghavebecome
"ubiquitous,"DmitriTrenin,directoroftheCarnegieMoscowCenterandaformerRussianarmyofficer,saidbytelephone.
"Idon'tthinkthatit'ssomethingtheywillbereallytalkingmuchaboutorworriedabout."
Moststatetelevisionchannels,throughwhichthevastmajorityofRussiansgettheirinformation,didnotairreportsonthe
allegations.Someofthefewofficialcomments,postedonlinebyRussiannewsagencies,weredismissive.
WorldViewsnewsletter
Importantstoriesfromaroundtheworld.
RussianofficialshaveaddressedtheU.S.electionssparingly.PutinhasofferedguardedpraiseforTrump,callinghim"lively"
and"talented"duringanationallytelevisednewsconferenceinDecember.But,onthewhole,theRussianleaderhasstayed
silentontheU.S.presidentialrace.
FyodorLukyanov,awell-connectedpoliticalanalystinMoscowandtheeditorofRussiainGlobalAffairs,aforeignpolicy
journal,saidthatthereisgreatinterestintheU.S.electionsamongRussianelitesandthatmanyseeTrumpaspotentiallya
betterpartnerforRussiathanHillaryClinton.
"Idon'tseewhytheywouldbeinterestedindoingthis,whichwouldjustelectrifythecampaignoftheDemocratic
candidate,"Lukyanovsaid,notingthathewasn'tbriefedonthespecificsofthehackingcase."Ithinkinthecaseofthese
reportsthatmanypeoplearejustusedtoseeingthescaryghostofMr.Putin."
Treninechoedthatthought."Iwouldbesuspiciousthatthatwouldbeatargetofimportancetoforeignintelligence,"hesaid.
TheDNCisa"soft"targetcomparedwiththeNationalSecurityCouncil,headded."Theywouldlikelyspendtheir
resourceselsewhere.Thenagain,Idon'tknow."
Readmore:
JustbecauseRussianslikePutindoesntmeantheyrehappyabouttheeconomy
ThePutin-Trumpkissbeingsharedaroundtheworld
Thenot-completely-crazytheorythatRussialeakedthePanamaPapers
Senttime: 06/17/201611:24:14PM
To: RobertOtto<OttoRC@state.gov>
BCc: swallen@1scom.netchris.bort@gmail.comnaterey80@gmail.comdonald.jensen8@gmail.com
PutinatStPForum(economic&geopoliticalcrisesconnectednotofortressRussia(technology)?EESChina&BigEurasianewgrowth?SME
Subject: Siloviki&criminalresponsibility(asubtlething)newapproachesMedvedevCouncilsanctions/coldwarMDOPKcoupinUkraineNATO
MinskAsadTrump&Clinton
http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52178
172016 16:20 -
00:00/00:00
XX
***
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message.html
Senttime: 06/20/201610:30:52AM
Subject: RE:PutinonABMTreaty/MissileDefenseatStPEconomicForum6/17

Very interesting, both these pieces. Thanks a lot, Bob.
Josh, do you know if theyre being translated into English? Theyre the most detailed and sophisticated
analysis Ive seen of the Kremlin point of view, without
the overlay of the threat discourse, i.e. what they plan to do to threaten us in return. Would be useful to
have in English.
RG
Sent:Sunday,June19,20169:13AM
To:Gottemoeller,RoseE
Subject:Re:PutinonABMTreaty/MissileDefenseatStPEconomicForum6/17
Laterhesamedaywithnewsagencies.http://redirect.state.sbu/?url=http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52183
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message.html
SentfrommyiPad
OnJun19,2016,at8:16AM,Gottemoeller,RoseE<GottemoellerRE@state.gov>wrote:
ThanksBob.RG
SentfrommyBlackBerry10smartphone.
From:RobertOtto
To:Gottemoeller,RoseE
Cc:JoshHandler
Subject:PutinonABMTreaty/MissileDefenseatStPEconomicForum6/17
Rose:
ImsurebynowPutinsremarksontheABMTreaty/MissileDefenseareknowntoyou,buthavingtheentire
Russianmightbeofuse.
Itcomesupintheq&aafterhisopeningremarks(andthoseofRenziandNazarbayev).
http://redirect.state.sbu/?url=http://redirect.state.sbu/?url=http://redirect.state.sbu/?
url=http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52178
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message.html
Senttime: 06/15/201611:58:30AM
FW:[BB.RESENTTOTHISBCCSEC]Fwd:[EARLYLATENITERUN][NICMND]FightinginE/UAUAforcesRUforcesRUstrategy
Subject:
CyberBalticsNATOCentralAsiaNuclearRUeconomyBlackSeaSEFRTRPrisonersFootballMH17..[MARIUSL'stakeonAN
From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Tuesday,June14,20166:37PM
Subject:[BB.RESENTTOTHISBCCSEC]Fwd:[EARLYLATENITERUN][NICMND]FightinginE/UAUAforcesRUforcesRU
strategyCyberBalticsNATOCentralAsiaNuclearRUeconomyBlackSeaSEFRTRPrisonersFootballMH17..[MARIUSL's
takeonAND...
Date:Tue,Jun14,2016at9:33PM
Subject:[EARLYLATENITERUN][NICMND]FightinginE/UAUAforcesRUforcesRUstrategyCyberBaltics
NATOCentralAsiaNuclearRUeconomyBlackSeaSEFRTRPrisonersFootballMH17..[MARIUSL'stakeon
ANDREINEKRASOV]Putin'sapologist.recentconvertorlongstandingsympathizer[StefL]Fwd:[Reviewof]East
WestStreet-OntheOriginsof"Genocide"and"CrimesAgainstHumanity"byPhilippeSands(onsloppy...or
ignorant.journalism)
To:
Subject:[EARLYLATENITERUN][NICMND]FightinginE/UAUAforcesRUforcesRUstrategyCyberBaltics
NATOCentralAsiaNuclearRUeconomyBlackSeaSEFRTRPrisonersFootballMH17..[MARIUSL'stakeon
ANDREINEKRASOV]Putin'sapologist.recentconvertorlongstandingsympathizer[StefL]Fwd:[Reviewof]East
WestStreet-OntheOriginsof"Genocide"and"CrimesAgainstHumanity"byPhilippeSands(onsloppy...or
ignorant.journalism)
From:NicMarsh<nic@prio.no>
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineUkraineforcesRussianforcesRussianstrategyCyberBalticsNATOCentralAsia
NuclearRussianeconomyBlackSeaSwedenFranceTurkeyPrisonersFootballMH17
To:
FightinginEasternUkraine
LatestfromOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)toUkraine,basedoninformationreceivedasof19:30,13June2016
TheSMMobservedmoreceasefireviolationsinbothDonetskandLuhanskregionscomparedwith11and12June.TheMission
conductedcrateranalysisandobserveddamagestocivilianhousescausedbyshelling.TheSMMcontinuedtomonitorthe
withdrawalofweapons.
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/246731

SixUkrainiansoldierswoundedinDonbasinlastday
http://www.unian.info/war/1375063-six-ukrainian-soldiers-wounded-in-donbas-in-last-day.html
Ukraineforces
NATOstandardstobeguidebookfor70%ofUkrainesDefenseMinistrybyyear-end
http://www.unian.info/war/1375648-nato-standards-to-be-guidebook-for-70-of-ukraines-defense-ministry-by-year-end.html
Russianforces
RussiaBeefsUpMilitaryPotentialintheCountrysWesternAreas
http://www.pism.pl/publications/bulletin/no-35-885#
[SentbyMiltonLeitenbergandStefanForss]
PutinorderedasuddenauditofRussianmilitaryinventories.
http://newsru.com/russia/14jun2016/prov.html
Russianstrategy
MoscowPromisesResponsestoUSandNATOActivities
Russiasambivalentself-restraintinthelastcoupleofmonthsisprobablyanattemptatsuchde-escalation,buttherearefew
reasonstobelievethatitwillpayanydividends.TheresonanceintheWestofRussiasgrossviolationsofthenormsofinternational
behaviorfaroutweighsanyimpressionmadebyapauseinRussianmilitaryexercisesparticularlysincethehostilityofMoscows
anti-Westernrhetorichasremainedsevere.Putinmaywishtoincreasehisspaceformaneuver,buttheKremlinspromisesto
forcefullyrespondtoNATOsstrengtheningcontainmentcapabilitiesandtotheimaginaryencroachmentsonRussiassecurity
frontierskeepmultiplying.AlthoughnobodyisgoingtoholdPutintothesepromises,heknowsthathecandemandloyaltyfromthe
disgruntledandsquabblingsiloviki(securityservicespersonnel)onlyaslongashekeepsprovingthefirmnessofhisrulinghand.As
longasthedemonstratedprudenceservesthepurposeofdeceptionandmaskirovka(Russianmilitarydeception),itisperfectly
fine,butgoingforrealcompromisesrisksshowingweakness.Attemptinganotherproactivemovemightbeasaferoption,but
Putinneedstoscoreonthecheapandthebillsfortheearliervictorieskeeppilingup.
http://www.jamestown.org/programs/edm/single/?
tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45502&tx_ttnews%5BbackPid%5D=27&cHash=a4293c7ceb9697d1ab0e22643ca2d857#.V1-
1hbt96Ul
Cyber
RussiansstealresearchonTrumpinhackofU.S.DemocraticParty
HackersbelievedtobeworkingfortheRussiangovernmentbrokeintotheDemocraticNationalCommittee'scomputernetwork,
spiedoninternalcommunicationsandaccessedresearchonpresumptiveRepublicanpresidentialnomineeDonaldTrump,the
committeeandsecurityexpertssaidonTuesday.
TwoseparategroupsenteredtheDNC'ssystem,andonereademailandchatcommunicationsfornearlyayearbeforebeing
detected,accordingtothecommitteeandCrowdStrike,thecyberfirmthathelpedcleanupthebreach.
RussianspiesalsotargetedthenetworksofTrumpandDemocraticpresidentialcandidateHillaryClinton,aswellasthecomputers
ofsomeRepublicanpoliticalactioncommittees,theWashingtonPostquotedU.S.officialsassaying,althoughdetailswerenot
available.
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-hack-idUSKCN0Z0205
RussiangovernmenthackerspenetratedDNC,stoleoppositionresearchonTrump
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/national-security/russian-government-hackers-penetrated-dnc-stole-opposition-research-
on-trump/2016/06/14/cf006cb4-316e-11e6-8ff7-7b6c1998b7a0_story.html

HackBrief:RussiasBreachoftheDNCIsAboutMoreThanTrumpsDirt
http://www.wired.com/2016/06/hack-brief-russias-breach-dnc-trumps-dirt/
Report:RussiaBehindCyberattacksOnMh17InvestigationTeam
http://www.nltimes.nl/2016/06/10/report-russia-behind-cyberattacks-mh17-investigation-team/
Baltics
InDefenseOfAWargame:BolsteringDeterrenceOnNATOsEasternFlank
http://warontherocks.com/2016/06/in-defense-of-a-wargame-bolstering-deterrence-on-natos-eastern-flank/
[SentbyMiltonLeitenberg]
NATO
NATODefenceMinistersagreetoenhancecollectivedefenceanddeterrence
Mr.StoltenbergunderlinedthatNATOhasnowfullyimplementedtheReadinessActionPlan,adoptedattheWalesSummittwo
yearsago.Today,headded,Alliesaretakingthenextsteps.Ministersalsoagreedontailoredmeasurestoenhancedefenceand
deterrenceintheBlackSearegion.Therewillalsobemorepre-positionedequipmentandsupplies,hesaid.
TheSecretaryGeneralstressedthatNATOsdefenceanddeterrencepostureisfull-spectrum,fromresilienceandnational
defence,toconventionalcapabilities,tothenucleardimension.Today,ministersmetintheNuclearPlanningGroup,toconsiderthe
safety,securityandeffectivenessofNATOsnucleardeterrent.Turningtocyberdefence,ministersagreedtorecognisecyberspace
asanoperationaldomainattheWarsawSummit.Treatingcyberasanoperationaldomainwouldenableustobetterprotectour
missionsandoperations,saidMr.Stoltenberg.
NATODefenceMinistersalsodiscussedthefreedomofmovementofNATOforcesacrossEurope.Itisvitalthatourtroopsand
equipmentcanmovewithoutdelay.Forexercisesinpeacetime,forreinforcementsinanemergingcrisis,timeisoftheessence,
saidtheSecretaryGeneral.HestressedthatNATOAllieshavecutredtapeandupdatedcomplexprocedurestoimprovethe
Alliancesabilitytodeployforcesatspeed.
Mr.StoltenbergnotedthatNATOseffortstoboostitsdeterrenceanddefencedependontherightcapabilitiesandresources.He
underlinedthat,aftermanyyearsofconstantcutsindefencespending,theAllianceisnowbackontherighttrack.In2015we
sawasmallincreaseindefencespendingacrossEuropeanAlliesandCanada.Andourestimatesindicateafurtherincreasein
defencespendingin2016,hesaid.TheSecretaryGeneraladdedthatAlliesmustsustainthismomentumandreviewprogressat
theWarsawSummit.
http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_132356.htm
NATO'sNextActHowtoHandleRussiaandOtherThreats
ByPhilipM.Breedlove
asRussiasinterventioninSyriahasdemonstrated,Moscowwillseekoutallopportunitiestoexpanditsinfluenceabroad.
BecausetheKremlinviewstheUnitedStatesandotherNATOmembersasitsprimaryadversaries,itconsidersitsrelationship
withtheWestazero-sumgame.Itwillcontinuetodosofortheforeseeablefuture.
[]
DespiteRussiasgrowingbelligerence,neithertheUnitedStatesmilitarynorthoseofitsalliesareadequatelypreparedtorapidly
respondtoovertmilitaryaggression.NoraretheysufficientlyreadytocounterthekindofhybridwarfarethatMoscowhaswaged
ineasternUkraine.
http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/europe/2016-06-13/natos-next-act?cid=soc-tw-rdr
NATOtosendtroopstodeterRussia,someallieswantmore
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-russia-idUSKCN0Z01BC
CentralAsia

U.S.SignalsGreaterFocusOnCentralAsianSecurity
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/79201
Some100militaryunitsdeliveredtoRussianmilitarybaseinTajikistan
http://tass.ru/en/defense/881741
Nuclear
High-LevelMeetingUrgesNukeTestBanTreatyRatification
AseniorAmericanofficialonMondayreaffirmedWhiteHousesupportforatreatybanningnucleartestingworldwideandurged
othercountriestomoveittowarditslong-delayedenactmentdespitethe"domesticpoliticalobstacles"keepinghercountryfrom
ratifyingit.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2016/06/13/world/middleeast/ap-un-nuclear-test-ban.html
Russianeconomy
TheEmperorHasNoClothes
AsanctionedfriendofVladimirPutin,thebusinessmanArkadyRotenberg,hasfrozenconstructionontheKerchchannelbridge,
duetoalackoffinancing.ForbesRussiareportsthecontractingcompany,RotenbergsStroygazmontazh,didnotreceivea
scheduledmoneytransferfromthebudgetanddoesnthavethecapitaltocontinueconstructingthebridgethatwouldconnect
annexedCrimeatoitsnewhomelandsterrafirma.
[]
RussiasPresidenthasbeendoinghisbesttohelphisfriendsout,butthesourceoffundingthathasallowedhimtodosomightbe
dryingupsoon.RBCaskedanumberofRussianeconomistshowsoonRussiasReservefundwouldbeexhausted.14outof32
economistsassumeitmighthappenassoonas2017.Theyconcludethatifoilpriceskeepataround$40-50perbarrel,bythe
beginningofnextyeartherewillbenomorethan1.1trillionrubles($16.6billion)intheFund.Andifoilpricesdontcomebackto
over$50,bytheendofnextyear,RussiasReserveFundmightbeemptiedcompletely.
Putinstronglydisagreeswiththispointofview.Duringhisannualcall-inshowinApril,heproudlysaidthattheReserveFundand
RussiasNationalWealthFundtogetherwouldallowthecountrytonotdoanythingatalleveryonecouldstopworkingforfour
months.(Hedidnotclarifywhatwouldhappennext,though.)IfRussiajustcontinuedonitspresentcourse,Putinargued,thetwo
Fundswouldstaysolventforfouryears.
DuringhisinterviewwithGermanysBild,Putinappearedtoeithernotknowtheactualsumscontainedinthetwofunds,orwas
willinglyexaggeratingthem.RussiasPresidentsaidtheCentralBanksinternationalreservesexceed$300billionwhilethereare
thetwomorefundsbesidesthat,theReserveFundandRussiasNationalWealthFund,worth$150billion.Therealityisthatthe
ReserveFundandRussiasNationalWealthFundarecountedaspartoftheCentralBanksinternationalreserves.
TheReserveFundismeanttocoverRussiasbudgetdeficit,whiletheRussiasNationalWealthFund,originallyintendedtokeep
Russiaspensionsystemsolvent,wastappedforanambitiousbailoutprograminearly2015,meanttohelpthecountryslargest
banksandcorporationsweatherthecombinationoflowoilpricesandWesternsanctions.(Putinsfriendssitatopmanyofthe
companiesthatstoodtohavebenefitted.)
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/06/09/the-emperor-has-no-clothes/
MinistryofFinanceoftheRussianFederation'sbudgetdeficitforthefirstfivemonthsin2016amountedto4.6%ofGDP,inMay-
5.5%ofGDP
:2016.4,6%,-5,5%
http://tass.ru/ekonomika/3362680
BlackSea
Report:AthreatbasedstrategyforNATOsSouthernFlank
KeyThreatsandPolicyResponses
Hybridwarfare:Thisthreatrequiresmultidimensionalstrategiesforterritorialdefense,cooperativesecurity,andcrisismanagement.
Russiasanti-accessandarea-denial(A2/AD)buildup:NATOshoulddevelopanewmaritimestrategyfortheSouthernflank,
enhancingthecapabilitiesofitsStandingMaritimeGroup2.NATOsdeep-strike,precision-strike,andstealthcapabilitiesshould
beleveragedthroughadvancedairplatformsandmunitionsintheEasternMediterranean.
Iransballistic-missileproliferation:Aneffectiveresponsewouldcombineenhancedmissile-defensecapabilitieswithdeploymentof
F-22fighterplanesinTurkey.
Statefailure:NATOshouldmitigatetheconsequencesofsecuritythreatspresentedbyArabcountriesfacingstatefailureandhelp
partnersaddresstheirgovernancechallenges.
Radicalandviolentnonstateactors:AkeypriorityforNATOsresponsetoviolentextremismshouldbetodevelopamore
effectivecounterterrorismstrategy.
Proliferationofweaponsofmassdestructionamongnonstateactors:NATOshouldseektoupgradeitsWMDproliferation
surveillancecapabilitiesandimproveitsawarenessofchemicalandbiologicalthreats.
StrategicDilemmasFacingtheAlliance
Givenitsbudgetaryimpact,aSouthernflankstrategywouldrequireapotentiallydifficult-to-forgepoliticalconsensusamong
NATOmembers.
WhendevotingmoreresourcestotheSouthernflankrequiresassigningfewerresourcestotheEast,differencesbetweenNATO
alliesthreatperceptionscancreateabottleneck.NATOsJuly2016Warsawsummitwillprovideauniqueopportunityforthe
alliancetoovercomethisstrategicvulnerabilityanddealconstructivelywiththepotentiallydivisiveissueofpriorities.
Thisstrategywillrequireburdensharing,apolarizingissueinthetransatlanticrelationship.Tomovebeyondthis,European
policymakersshouldreshapetheirdomesticstrategiccommunicationsandunderlinetheneedforEuropetostartreinvestinginits
ownsecurity.
TheriseofpopulismintheWestwillimpacttheabilityofthetransatlanticalliancetoprojectpeaceandstabilityintheworld.Thisis
thekeyobstacletotheelaborationofaforward-lookingstrategytoaddressthesecuritychallengesofEuropesSouth.NATO
leadersmustavoidenteringintoadomesticallydriveneraofinternationalpolicyinertia.
http://carnegieeurope.eu/2016/06/10/threat-based-strategy-for-nato-s-southern-flank/j1oz
http://carnegieendowment.org/files/NATO_Southern_Flank.pdf
Sweden
AtutorialonSwedishsecurityandDefensepolicy
GoWestSverigeefteralliansfriheten
http://kvartal.se/artiklar/efter-alliansfriheten
[SentbyStefanForss]
France
ExtendingLeclerclongevity
http://www.janes.com/article/61307/extending-leclerc-longevity-es2016d2
Turkey
Turkey'sShipbuildingSetforaBoost
TheTurkishgovernmenthassaidthatitintendstobuyscoresofnavalassetsinthenextyears,potentiallygivingamajorboostto
thecountrysflourishingshipyardsandtheirforeignpartners.
http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense-news/2016/06/14/turkish-shipbuilding-boost/85860442/
Prisoners
PutinpardonedtwoUkrainianprisonersinexchangefortwoOdesaprisoners
http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52155
MH17
HackofRussianTVchannelshowsnewinfoonMH17
.2:17
http://informnapalm.org/23880-mh17-forbidden-interview/
Football
RussiahandedsuspendedEuro2016disqualificationandfined150,00
http://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/jun/14/russia-handed-suspended-euro-2016-disqualification-fined-150000-uefa
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
PeaceResearchInstituteOslo(PRIO)
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
telephone:+4722547772
skype:nicholas.james.marsh
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio
From:MariusLaurinavicius<marius.laurinavicius@cepa.org>
Subject:mytakeonANDREINEKRASOV[Ed:Astoryaboutsomeonechallengingthefundamentalpremisesbehind
theMagnitskyAct]
To:MariusLaurinavicius<marius.laurinavicius@cepa.org>
DearAll,
Ithoughtyoumightbeinterestedinmytakeonwell-knownRussianfilmmakersAndreiNekrasovrecenttransformationintothe
toolofPutinspropaganda.InthearticlepublishedbyTheAmericanInteresthttp://www.the-american-
interest.com/2016/06/14/the-many-faces-of-putinism/IarguethatitmightbethatnotransformationtookplaceandNekrasovhas
beenjustadifferentfaceofPutinsregimeforalongtime.OntopofthatNekrasovstransformationmightbeaneye-openerthat
noteverybodywhoopposesPutinpersonallyisactuallyanenemyofregimeassuch.Andwecantcountonallofthemasdriving
forcesforregimechange.
Bestwishes,
Marius
MariusLaurinaviius
SENIORFELLOW-IN-RESIDENCE
BAFFSECURITYRESEARCHSCHOLAR
P:(202)5519208
E:marius.laurinavicius@cepa.org
CenterforEuropeanPolicyAnalysis
122519thStreet,Suite450
Washington,DC20036
cepa.org| |
From:StefanLemieszewski<lemistefan@gmail.com>
Subject:EastWestStreet-OntheOriginsof"Genocide"and"CrimesAgainstHumanity"byPhilippeSands[ED:An
"Oops"MomentSloppyJournalism]
To:CherMadden<lesia.chernihivska@gmail.com>
Cc:RomanKarpishka<karpishka@yahoo.com>,Nicholas<cambat@earthlink.net>,WyattEmail
<vegasuclawrma@earthlink.net>,AlexMotyl<ajmotyl@andromeda.rutgers.edu>,MDAndrijBaran
<LITZARS@msn.com>,Yaromyr@aol.com,AlexanderKuzma<abkuzma@ucef.org>,30MORE
image
SotheworldisbeginningtorealizethatbothtermsGenocideandCrimesAgainstHumanityhadtheiroriginsinthecityofLviv.
AndyetwehaveCullenMurphywritinginVanityFairaboutthetiestowhatisnowthePolishcityofLww.
WherearetheeditorchecksandfactreviewersatVanityFair?
Stefan
P.S.TheNewYorkTimesalsohasareviewofPhilippeSandsEastWestStreet:OntheOriginsof"Genocide"and"Crimes
AgainstHumanity"
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/29/books/review/east-west-street-by-philippe-sands.html
http://www.amazon.com/East-West-Street-Genocide-Humanity/dp/0385350716?
ie=UTF8&keywords=East%20West%20Street&qid=1464568908&ref_=sr_1_1&sr=8-1
===========================================
http://www.vanityfair.com/culture/2016/05/phillipe-sands-east-west-street-nazi-genocide
VanityFair
27May2016
CrimesAgainstHumanity
5QuestionsforPhilippeSandsAheadofHisNazi-EraSagaEastWestStreet
TheprominentBritishlawyer'snewbookfocusesonfourmen,includinghisgrandfather,withtiestowhatisnowthePolishcityof
Lww.TwoofthemwouldassisttheprosecutionofNazileadersatNurembergandchangethewaywethinkaboutwarcrimes.Here,
Sandstalkstoeditor-at-largeCullenMurphyaboutgenocide,crimesagainsthumanity,andhisownancestry.
byCullenMurphy
[...]
==========================
Senttime: 06/12/201605:29:14AM
To: JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>GeneFishel<obolon78@yahoo.com>
Subject: Mike,PhilandHRC
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/10/inside-hillary-clintons-massive-foreign-policy-brain-trust/
Ideologically,thearmyofadvisorsincludesamixofbothhawksanddovesand
longtimeacolytesofbothClintonandObama.
ThecampaignsMiddleEastworkinggroupisledbysenioradvisorsWittesand
DerekChollet,aformerObamaadministrationofficial,andcoordinatorPrem
Kumar,aseniorvicepresidentattheAlbrightStonebridgeGroup.Abroad
scatteringofMiddleEastexpertsworkunderthisgroup,includingBruce
Jentleson,aformerStateDepartmentofficialBernadetteMeehan,adiplomat
andformerspokeswomanfortheNationalSecurityCouncilandBrianKatulis,a
seniorfellowattheCenterforAmericanProgress.
ThecampaignscounterterrorismworkinggroupisledbyRandBeers,aformer
HomelandSecurityofficialDanBenjamin,aformerStateDepartmentofficial
andcoordinatorMattSpence,aformerPentagonofficial.Thehumanrights
workinggroupisledbyformerStateDepartmentofficialsHaroldKohandMike
Posner.TheEuropeandRussiaworkinggroupisledbyMichaelMcFaul,the
formerU.S.ambassadortoRussiaPhilGordon,aformerObamaWhiteHouse
officialandJulieSmith,formerdeputynationalsecurityadvisortoVice
PresidentJoeBiden.
Otherindividuals,suchasDanKurtz-Phelan,afellowattheNewAmericathink
tank,helpRosenbergercoordinatewiththevastswathofadvisors.
Senttime: 06/12/201610:35:14AM
FW:[SATEVENINGPOST/EST][HU]TELEGRAPH/DavidB:UkraineisagreatEuropeanstate.Lestweforget,itisstillatwar..[ANT/F]Brexit/NordStream2/"".[SAMO]"BigDayTomorrow...Euro-
Subject:
Cup...Ukes"[ANT/F]Lomachenko...
Subject:Fwd:[SATEVENINGPOST/EST][HU]TELEGRAPH/DavidB:UkraineisagreatEuropeanstate.Lestweforget,itisstillatwar..[ANT/F]Brexit/NordStream2/"".[SAMO]"Big
DayTomorrow...Euro-Cup...Ukes"[ANT/F]Lomachenko...
Subject:[SATEVENINGPOST/EST][HU]TELEGRAPH/DavidB:UkraineisagreatEuropeanstate.Lestweforget,itisstillatwar..[ANT/F]Brexit/NordStream2/"
".[SAMO]"BigDayTomorrow...Euro-Cup...Ukes"...[ANT/F]Lomachenkovs.MartinezOnlineMaterial..[VRT][CLASSICRUDEZINFORM]RobertParry:RiskingNuclearWarforAl
Qaeda?
From:hunter@
Subject:UkraineisagreatEuropeanstate.Lestweforget,itisstillatwar
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/11/ukraine-is-a-great-european-state-lest-we-forget-it-is-still-at/
UkraineisagreatEuropeanstate.Lestweforget,itisstillatwar
DAVIDBLAIR
11JUNE20167:00PM/DAILYTELEGRAPH

StSophiaCathedralinKievwasbuiltbyYaroslavtheWisealmost1,000yearsago.CREDIT:AP
Formuchofthe20thcentury,Europewasfilledwithcapitalcitiesatwar.Asrecentlyasthe1990s,placeslikeBelgrade,SarajevoandZagreballfellintothistragiccategory.Buttodaythereisonlyone:Kievin
Ukraine.
ThankstothepredatoryambitionsofVladimirPutin,UkraineisthesoleEuropeancountrythatiswagingwaronitsownsoil.AndKievhasavery20thcenturyritual:thedailyannouncementofthecommuniqu
fromthefront.At12.30precisely,ColonelAndriyLysenko,alantern-jawedmilitaryspokesman,readsoutthelatestnewsfromtheeast,whereUkrainiantroopsarefightingbattlesofattritionwithRussianforces
andtheirlocalallies,whooccupyabouthalfoftheneighbouringregionsofDonetskandLuhansk.
ThefrontlineineasternUkrainenolongermoves,butthedailybloodshedseemsunstoppable
ColLysenkoappearsonastagedesignedtosendamessageallofitsown.Behindhimisapatternoftrianglespaintedyellowandbluethenationalcoloursandallpointedleftward:inthedirectionoftheWest
andUkrainesdestinytobecomeanormalEuropeancountry,notaRussiansatellite.
ThestagealsocarriesanunusuallybanalbutfitforpurposesayingofTarasShevchenko,thepoetandauthorregardedastheChaucerofUkrainianliterature,whoapparentlysaid:Battleonandwinyour
battles!
OnthedayIvisited,ColLysenkostoodbeforethisdisplayandreadoutthegrimtidings.Duringthelast24hours,therewerenocalmareasofthefrontline,hesaid.InDonetsktherewasintensiveshelling.
TheRussianshadfired150mortarbombsorartilleryshellsin14separateincidents,hesaid,killingoneUkrainiansoldierandwoundinganothernine.
SomuchfortheMinskceasefireagreements.ThefrontlineineasternUkrainenolongermoves,butthedailybloodshedseemsunstoppable.
OneothertraditionalfeatureofawartimeEuropeancapitalistherecruitmentbanner.Sureenough,picturesofresolutesoldierstotingfearsomemachine-gunsarefoundacrossKiev.Theslogansontheselatter-day
KitchenerposterswouldnotgodownwellinareasofEuropethatliketothinkofthemselvesasenlightened.
Menswork!readsonebanner,aboveapictureofasoldiermountedonatank.Signacontracttobecomearealman!declaresanother,illustratingapictureoftwoburlyvolunteers.
Thereisnodoubtabouttheintensityoffighting,northescaleofthesuffering.Thewarintheeasthasclaimedmorethan9,000livessince2014anddrivenasmanyas1.7millionpeoplefromtheirhomes.
Today,anareathatcontainsUkrainesindustrialheartlandandmostofitscoalreserveshasslippedoutofthehandsofKievandintoapost-Soviettwilightzone.
Inourowntime,KievhasbeenunjustlyovershadowedbyMoscowandBerlin
ThepeoplesrepublicsofDonetskandLuhanskaretheunrecognisedorphansofEurope.Russiapropsthemupwithweapons,troopsandmoney,buthasdeclinedtofollowitsownexampleinCrimeaand
actuallyannexthem.MrPutindoesnotwanttobearthefullcostofthebankruptstateletshehascreatedbyforceofarms.
Meanwhile,Ukrainesarmycanpreventthepeoplesrepublicsfromexpanding,butitlacksthemilitarystrengthtorecapturethem.
Forallthebravado,Ukrainemayalsolackthewill.Despitethestridentpostersandthedailycommuniqusfromthefront,thereisnotmuchsignthatthepeopleofKievareyearningfortherecoveryofthelost
territorieslikethe19thcenturyFrenchyearnedforthereturnofAlsaceandLorraine.DonetskandLuhanskarelikeadifferentcountry,saysonefriend.
StSophiaCathedralisanarchitecturalgemmodelledonHagiaSophiabesidetheBosphorus.PrinceYaroslavtheWisebuiltKievalmostathousandyearsagoinconsciousimitationofConstantinople.Today,his
stonesarcophagusliesbeneaththegoldendomesofthecathedralthathecreatedalthoughwithouthisremains,whichappeartohavebeenlostduringtheturmoilofthe20thcentury.
YaroslavskingdomwasalliedtotheByzantineEmpireinConstantinopleandhisdaughter,Anne,marriedKingHenryIofFrance.YaroslavhimselfmarriedthedaughteroftheKingofSweden.Allthisgoesto
showthatKievwasattheheartoftheEuropeanstatessystemforcenturies.Inourowntime,KievhasbeenunjustlyovershadowedbyMoscowandBerlin.Buthavenodoubt:thisisagreatEuropeancapitalinits
ownright.
Subject:Brexit/NordStream2/""
To:
Britain'sEUreferendumcouldleadtothebreak-upoftheEUitself,Sweden'sforeignministerhaswarned.
MargotWallstromtoldtheBBCadominoeffectofdemandsforreferendumsandrequestsforpreferentialtermsbymemberstatescouldfollow.
"Thespill-overeffectwillbeunfortunatelyfelt,deeplyfelt,"shesaid."Itwouldbebadeitherway,"sheadded.
ThereferendumintheUKwilltakeplaceon23June.
ApollfortheIndependentnewspaper,publishedonFridayevening,suggestedthattheLeavecampaignhad10-pointlead...
SupportforaDanishreferendumonEUmembershipisontherise.
http://euobserver.com/institutional/133738
FortytwopercentofDanesnowwantavoteonwhetherDenmarkshouldcontinuetobeamemberoftheEU.Thatisfivepercentmorethanjustthreemonthsago.
InFebruary,only37percentsaidtheywantedaUK-typereferendum.
EUlikelytoextendRussiasanctionsbeforesummit
http://euobserver.com/foreign/133731
NordStream2:Businessunusual
http://euobserver.com/business/133720
...ThefirmsbuildingNordStream2areGermanysBASFandE.ON,Engie(France),OMV(Austria)andShell(Anglo-Dutch)togetherwithGazprom,theRussianenergychampionwhichhas
themajoritystake.
Theventureisunusualinseveralways.
Itrisksbeingblockedbysanctions,byEUlaworbypolitics.Itriskslackofdemand.Itispricierthanalternativeoptions.ItalsotiestheEUfirmsmorecloselytoapartner,Gazprom,thatis
controlledbyRussiansecurityservicesandthatisbleedingvalueatarapidrate.
ForJensMueller,aSwissPRmanwhoworksforNordStream2theconsortiumisbasedintheSwisstownofZugtheEUsanctionsdonotposeaproblem.MuellertoldEUobserverthatthe
sanctionsweredesignedtoletNordStream2goahead...
ByEricMaurice
Prague,8.Jun,10:22TheFrenchgovernmentistryingtopassalawthatwouldhelpRussiatoprotectitsassetsfrombeingfrozeninbusiness
conflicts.
:""
http://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2016/06/11/7050619/
From:roman<samoklaus@hotmail.com>
Subject:BigDayTomorrow...Euro-Cup...Ukes[ED:It'stheEuro-Championship.anditisbig!!!]
To:Denny<drdenny324@gmail.com>,alexander<lesykb@hotmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,PeterChoma<pchoma2@verizon.net>,roman<samoklaus@hotmail.com>,
"yurijazz@gmail.com"<yurijazz@gmail.com>,ArthurHryhorowych<anh@nyc.rr.com>,IhorPaluch<ipaluch@verizon.net>,"Mishkaof2ndAvenue."<lycholat@earthlink.net>,20MORE
AsmanyknowSoccerisOurCountry'smostbelovedGame(Our'Pidhahra')
WefacepowerhouseGermanyinouropener...Theexpertsgive(us)asmallchancetowintomorrowbutourlasttwowarmupswebeatRomania2-0thenAlbania3-1...Weareonanupswing
...TrustmewehavesomeWorldClassplayersonthepitch
OurdearUkeBroArtieisonhiswaytoFrancetowatchtheUkeslive...Let'swishhimandCountryWell..
InourgroupwewillfacePolandandNorthernIrelandaswell...Toptwomoveon...
Asweallknow...OurCountryisinabiggerfightforsurvival

ButtomorrowisatimefortheCountrytofeelapositivespiritasweputourmindonourNationalgame..
"
~S
Subject:FW:-:-(today)
To:
today:
-:-
http://dt.ua/SPORT/lomachenko-martines-video-onlayn-translyaciya-boyu-210948_.html
(youcanwatchina"privatew/indow"iftranslationiscountryrestricted)
VasylLomachenkoHighlights
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgVvvX2T418
PublishedonMay30,2016
From:VRT
Subject:[ED:INTHERUDEZINFORMHALLOFFAME]RobertParry:RiskingNuclearWarforAlQaeda?
RiskingNuclearWarforAlQaeda?
Exclusive:Theriskthatthemulti-sidedSyrianwarcouldsparkWorldWarIIIcontinuesasTurkey,SaudiArabiaandU.S.neoconsseekaninvasionthatcouldkillRussiantroopsandpossiblyescalate
theSyriancrisisintoanuclearshowdown,amazinglytoprotectAlQaedaterrorists,reportsRobertParry.
ByRobertParry
WhenPresidentBarackObamatookquestionsfromreportersonTuesday,theonethatneededtobeaskedbutwasntwaswhetherhehadforbiddenTurkeyandSaudiArabiatoinvadeSyria,because
onthatquestioncouldhingewhethertheuglySyriancivilwarcouldspinoffintoWorldWarIIIandpossiblyanuclearshowdown.
IfTurkey(withhundredsofthousandsoftroopsmassedneartheSyrianborder)andSaudiArabia(withitssophisticatedairforce)followthroughonthreatsandintervenemilitarilytosavetheirrebel
clients,whoincludeAlQaedasNusraFront,fromapowerfulRussian-backedSyriangovernmentoffensive,thenRussiawillhavetodecidewhattodotoprotectits20,000orsomilitarypersonnelinside
Syria.
AsourceclosetoRussianPresidentVladimirPutintoldmethattheRussians
havewarnedTurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdoganthatMoscowisprepared
tousetacticalnuclearweaponsifnecessarytosavetheirtroopsinthefaceofa
Turkish-Saudionslaught.SinceTurkeyisamemberofNATO,anysuchconflict
couldquicklyescalateintoafull-scalenuclearconfrontation.
GivenErdogansmegalomaniaormentalinstabilityandtheaggressivenessand
inexperienceofSaudiPrinceMohammadbinSalman(defenseministerandsonofKing
Salman),theonlypersonwhoprobablycanstopaTurkish-SaudiinvasionisPresident
Obama.ButImtoldthathehasbeenunwillingtoflatlyprohibitsuchanintervention,
thoughhehassoughttocalmErdogandownandmadeclearthattheU.S.militarywould
notjointheinvasion. PresidentBarackObamameetswithVicePresidentJoeBidenandotheradvisersintheOvalOfficeonFeb.2,2016.[WhiteHousephoto]
Sofar,ErdoganhaslimitedTurkeysdirectmilitaryattacksonSyriatocross-border
shellingagainstU.S.-backedKurdishforcesthathaveseizedterritoryfromtheIslamicState(alsoknownasISIS)innorthernSyria.TurkeyconsiderstheKurdishfighters,knownasYPG,tobeterrorists
buttheU.S.governmentseesthemasvaluablealliesinthefightagainstIslamicStateterrorists,anAlQaedaspinoffthatcontrolslargeswathsofSyriaandIraq.
ButErdogansshortfusemayhavegrownshorteronWednesdaywhenapowerfulcarbombkilledatleast28peopleinTurkeyscapitalofAnkara.Thebombapparentlytargetedamilitaryconvoyand
TurkishofficialscastsuspiciononKurdishmilitantswhoalsohavebeenunderassaultfromTurkishforcesinsideTurkey.
Thoughshowingnoevidence,TurkishofficialssuggestedtheattackmayhavebeensponsoredbyIranorRussia,anothersignofhowcomplicatedthegeopoliticalmorassinSyriahasbecome.Those
whothinktheycansteerourcountryawayfromourgoalsbyusingterroristorganizationswillseethattheyhavefailed,declaredErdogan,accordingtoTheWallStreetJournal.
(OnWednesdaynight,TurkeyretaliatedfortheAnkarabombingbylaunchingairstrikesagainstKurdishtargetsinnorthernIraq.)
ThedilemmaforObamaisthatmanytraditionalU.S.allies,suchasTurkey,SaudiArabiaandQatar,havebeentheprincipalbackersandfundersofSunniterrorgroupsinsideSyria,includingAlQaedas
NusraFrontandtoalesserdegreetheIslamicState.Now,theallieswanttheUnitedStatestoriskanuclearconfrontationwithRussiato,ineffect,protectAlQaeda.
BidenBlurtsOutTruth
ThetwistedrealitywasacknowledgedbynolessanauthoritythanVicePresidentJoeBidenduringatalkatHarvardin2014.Bidenansweredastudents
questionbysayingTurkey,SaudiArabiaandtheUnitedArabEmirateshadpouredhundredsofmillionsofdollarsandtens,thousandsoftonsofweaponsinto
anyonewhowouldfightagainst[SyrianPresidentBasharal-]Assad.Theresult,Bidensaid,wasthatthepeoplewhowerebeingsuppliedwereAlNusraand
AlQaedaandtheextremistelementsofjihadiscomingfromotherpartsoftheworld.
TherisksfromthesetangledallianceswerealsohighlightedbyaDefenseIntelligenceAgencyreportinAugust2012,warningtheObamaadministrationthat
thegrowingstrengthofAlQaedaandotherSunnijihadistsinSyriacouldleadtothecreationofanIslamicstatewhosemilitantscouldmovebackintoIraq
wherethethreatoriginatedaftertheU.S.invasionofIraq.
TheDIAsaidAlQaedasgrowingstrengthinSyriacreatestheidealatmosphereforAQI[AlQaedainIraq]toreturntoitsoldpocketsinMosulandRamadiand
willprovidearenewedmomentumunderthepresumptionofunifyingthejihadamongSunniIraqandSyriaandtherestoftheSunnisintheArabworldagainst
whatitconsidersoneenemy,thedissenters[i.e.theShiites].
ISI[IslamicStateofIraq,forerunnerofISIS,alsoknownastheIslamicState]couldalsodeclareanIslamicstatethroughitsunionwithotherterrorist
organizationsinIraqandSyria,whichwillcreategravedangerinregardstounifyingIraqandtheprotectionofitsterritory. TurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdogan.
DespitetheprescientDIAreportandBidensbluntadmission(forwhichhequicklyapologized),PresidentObamafailedtoputastoptothestrategyof
supportingAssadsopponents.HeletSaudiArabia,QatarandTurkeycontinuefunnelingweaponstothemostextremeelementsoftherebellion.Meanwhile,theU.S.governmentinsistedthatitwas
onlyarmingmoderaterebels,butthosegroupswerelargelysubsumedorcontrolledbyAlQaedasNusraand/orISIS,ahyper-violentspinofffromAlQaeda.
InSyria,ratherthancooperatewithRussiaandIraninhelpingAssadsmilitarydefeatthejihadists,theObamaadministrationhascontinuedplayingitcute,insistingasSecretaryofStateJohnKerryhas
saidrecentlythatarmedlegitimateoppositiongroupsexistseparatelyfromAlQaedasNusraFront.
Inreality,however,theso-calledmoderaterebelsaroundAleppoandIdlibareAlQaedasjuniorpartners
whosevaluetothecauseisthattheyqualifyforCIAweaponrythatcanthenbepassedontoNusraaswell
asNusraskeyallyAhraral-Shamandotherjihadistfighters.
NusraandAhraral-Sham,thechiefelementsoftheSaudi-createdArmyofConquest,deployedU.S.TOW
missilestodevastatingeffectagainsttheSyrianarmyinthejihadistsvictorylastyearinIdlibprovince,a
successthatfinallypromptedPutintocommitRussianairpowertodefendtheSyriangovernmentlast
September.
HelpingtheIslamicState
SecretaryofStateJohnKerryaddressesreportersinGenevaonNov.8,2013,(Photocredit:StateDepartment)
Meanwhile,Turkeyhasleftabout100kilometersofitsborderopenforvariousjihadistgroupstobringin
reinforcementsandweaponswhilelettingtheIslamicStatesmuggleoutoilforsaleontheblackmarket.Last
fall,afterRussia(andareluctantUnitedStates)beganbombingISISoil-truckconvoys,TurkeyshotdownaRussianbombernearTurkeysborder,leadingtothedeathsofthepilotandarescuer.
Now,astheRussian-backedSyrianarmymakesmajorgainsagainsttheNusra-dominatedrebelsaroundAleppoandencroachesonIslamicStateterritorynearRaqqaandasU.S.-backedKurdishforces
alsoadvanceagainstISISTurkeysErdoganhasgrownfranticovertheprospectsthathisfive-yearprojectofaidingSyrianjihadistsmaybecollapsing.
Amidthisdesperation,TurkeyhasbeenurgingPresidentObamatosupportalimitedinvasionofSyriatocreateasafezone,supposedlytoprotectSyrianrebelsandciviliansinnorthernSyria.Butthat
humanitarian-soundingplanmaywellbeacoverforamoreambitiousplantomarchtoDamascusandforciblyremovePresidentAssadfrompower.
ThatisagoalsharedbyTurkey,SaudiArabiaandotherSunnistatesalongwithIsraelandAmericasinfluentialneoconservativesandtheirliberalinterventionistsidekicks.Forhispart,Obamahas
calledonAssadtogobuthasfavoreddiplomaticnegotiationstoachievethatend.RussiahasadvocatedapoliticalsettlementwithfreeelectionssotheSyrianpeoplecandecideAssadsfuture
themselves.
TheRussiansalsokeenlyremembertheWestssubterfugeregardingLibyain2011whentheU.S.anditsNATOalliespushedahumanitarianresolutionthroughtheUnitedNationsSecurityCouncil
supposedlytoprotectLibyanciviliansbutthenusedittoachieveviolentregimechange,aclassiccaseofthecamelgettingitsnoseintothetent.
OnSyria,RussiawatchedforyearsastheUnitedStates,Turkey,SaudiArabia,QatarandotherSunnistatessupportedvariousSunnirebelgroupsseekingtooverthrowAssad,anAlawite,representing
abranchofShiiteIslam.ThoughAssadhasbeenwidelycriticizedfortheharshresponsetotheuprising,hemaintainsaseculargovernmentthathasprotectedChristians,Alawites,Shiitesandother
minorities.
BesidesbeingatargetofSunniregionalpowers,AssadhaslongbeenontheIsraeli-neoconhitlistbecausehesseenasthecenterpieceoftheShiitecrescentstretchingfromIranthroughIraqand
SyriatoLebanon.SinceIsraelileaders(andthustheAmericanneocons)seeIranasIsraelsgreatestenemy,thegoalofcollapsingtheShiitecrescenthasconcentratedonbringingdownAssad
evenifhisousterwouldcreateapolitical/militaryvacuumthatAlQaedaand/orIslamicStatemightfill.
MakingSyriathesiteforthisproxywarhasinflictedparticularlysavageresultsontheSyrians.Forfiveyearstheviolencebyboththerebelsandthearmyhas
destroyedmuchofthecountryandkilledmorethan250,000peoplewhilealsosendingwavesofdesperaterefugeescrashingintoEurope,nowdestabilizingthe
EuropeanUnion.
However,astheU.S.anditsMideastalliesespeciallySaudiArabiaandTurkeyescalatedtheconflictlastyearbysupplyingtherebels,includingAlQaedasNusra
Front,withAmericanTOWmissilesandothersophisticatedweapons,RussianPresidentPutindecideditwastimetohelpSyriasgovernmentstopthespreadof
Sunniterrorism,athreatthathasalsoplaguedRussia.
MockingRussia
Initially,OfficialWashingtonmockedtheRussianeffortasincapableofaccomplishingmuch,buttheSyrianmilitarysrecentvictorieshaveturnedthatderisive
laughterintoshockedfury.Forone,theneoconservativeflagshipWashingtonPosthasunleashedastreamofeditorialsandop-edsdecryingtheSyrian-Russian
victories.
Russia,IranandtheSyriangovernmentareconductingamajoroffensiveaimedatrecapturingthecityofAleppoandtherebel-heldterritorythatconnectsitto
theborderwithTurkey,thePostlamented.Theyhavecutonesupplyroutetothecityandareclosetoseveringanother,trappingrebelforcesalongwith
hundredsofthousandsofcivilians. SyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.
ThoughonemightthinkthatdrivingAlQaedasforcesoutofamajorurbancenterlikeAleppowouldbeagoodthing,thePostsneoconeditorspretendthatthe
rebelscontrollingthatareaareonlynoblemoderateswhomustbeprotectedbytheUnitedStates.NomentionismadeofAlQaedasNusraFront,soasnottospoilthedesiredpropagandatheme.
ThePostthenbadgeredObamatodosomething:Inthefaceofthisonslaught,whichpromisestodestroyanychanceofanacceptableendtotheSyriancivilwar,theObamaadministrationhasbeena
studyinpassivityandmoralconfusion.PresidentObamaissilent.
Inanotherhystericaleditorial,thePostseditorsconjuredupwhattheycalledtherealworldwherethebest-casescenarioafterfiveyearsofU.S.inactionisapartialpeacethatleavesSyriapartitioned
intozonescontrolledbythe[Assad]regimeandtheIslamicState,withafewoppositionandKurdishenclavessqueezedin.EventhatwouldrequiretheObamaadministrationtoaggressivelystepupits
militarysupportforrebelgroups,andconfrontRussiawithmorethanrhetoric.
However,intheactualrealworld,theObamaadministrationhasbeenfunnelingmilitaryequipmenttorebelsseekingtooverthrowaninternationallyrecognizedgovernmentforyears.Thatassistance
hasincludedavertingU.S.eyesfromthefactthatmanyofthoserebelgroupswerecollaboratingwithAlQaedasNusraFrontand/ortheIslamicState.
AsMideastexpertGareth
Porterreported,The
Russianairstrikesinquestion
areaimedatcuttingoff
Aleppocity,whichisnowthe
primarycenterofNusras
powerinSyria,fromthe
Turkishborder.Tosucceed
inthataim,Russian,Syrian
andIranianforcesare
IranianPresidentHassanRouhani(left)shakeshandswithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinattheShanghaiCooperationOrganizationsummitintheKyrgyzcapitalofBishkekonSept.13,2013.(Photocredit:PressTV)
attackingrebeltroops
deployedintownsallalong
theroutesfromAleppototheborder.ThoserebelsincludeunitsbelongingtoNusra,theircloseallyAhraral-Sham,andotherarmedoppositiongroupssomeofwhomhavegottenweaponsfromtheCIA
inthepast.
Informationfromawiderangeofsources,includingsomeofthosetheUnitedStateshasbeenexplicitlysupporting,makesitclearthateveryarmedanti-Assadorganizationunitinthoseprovincesis
engagedinamilitarystructurecontrolledbyNusramilitants.AlloftheserebelgroupsfightalongsidetheNusraFrontandcoordinatetheirmilitaryactivitieswithit.
ButTheWashingtonPostanditsmainstreamU.S.cohortsdontwantyoutoknowtherealrealworldrealitythatSyriassaintedmoderaterebelsarefightingsidebysidewithAlQaeda,whichwas
responsibleforkillingnearly3,000Americanson9/11andfordrawingtheU.S.militaryintoaseriesofMideastconflictsthathaveclaimedthelivesofabout8,000U.S.soldiers.
ThebizarregoalofsavingAlQaedasskinpresumablywouldnotbeaverygoodsellingpointtogetAmericansbehindanewwarthatcouldpitnuclear-armedRussiaagainstnuclear-armedAmericawith
allthehorrorsthatsuchaconflictcouldentail.
Still,theinconvenienttruthaboutAlQaedasroleoccasionallyslipsintomainstreamnewsaccounts,albeitonlyinpassing.Forinstance,NewYorkTimescorrespondentAnneBarnardreportedlast
SaturdayaboutaproposedSyriancease-fire,writing:WiththeprovisothattheNusraFront,AlQaedasbranchinSyria,canstillbebombed,RussiaputstheUnitedStatesinadifficultpositionthe
insurgentgroupsitsupportscooperateinsomeplaceswiththewell-armed,well-financedNusrainwhattheysayisatacticalallianceofnecessityagainstgovernmentforces.
ObamasQuandary
So,thequandarythatObamafacesiswhethertheUnitedStatesshouldjoinwithTurkeyandSaudiArabiainablatantinvasionofSyriatosalvageAlQaedascause.Ofcourse,thatsnothowitwouldbe
soldtotheAmericanpeople.TheprojectwouldbecouchedinprettywordsabouthumanitarianismandtheneedtomaintainU.S.credibility.
ButObamaseemstorecognizeenoughoftheactualrealitythathehassofarresistedthefranticcriesofOfficialWashingtonsneoconsandliberalhawks.ImtoldObamaalsohasdiscouragedTurkey
andSaudiArabiafromtakingmattersintotheirownhands.
Afterall,afull-scaleinvasionbyTurkeyandSaudiArabiainsupportofAlQaedaandotherSunnirebelswouldpittheinvadingforceagainstnotonlytheSyrianarmybutitsIranianandHezbollah(Shiite)
alliesandmostdangerouslyRussia,whichlacksthemanpowerinsideSyriatomatchupwiththeTurkisharmybutcoulddeploytacticalnuclearweaponsifnecessarytosavethelivesofRussiansoldiers.
So,hereisasignificantdifferencebetweenObamaandformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClinton.ShehaspubliclycalledfortheU.S.militarytoestablishasafezoneinsideSyriaalongwithano-fly
zone.Whileallthatsoundsveryniceandpeaceful,itwouldactuallyrequirethesameinvasionthatTurkeyisnowseekinganditwouldrequiretheU.S.airforcetoeliminatemuchoftheSyrianairforce
andairdefenses.Itwouldbeamajoractofwar.
OnTuesday,ObamawasaskedabouttheSyrianconflictatanewsconferencebutitwaswithinthe
typicalmainstreamframeofsuggestingthatObamaistooweakindealingwithPutin.Forfiveyears,the
mainstreamU.S.mediacantgetbeyondgoadingObamatoincreaseU.S.interventioninSyriaandthus
bringaboutanotherregimechange.
Despitethecontraryevidence,ithasremainedabelovedWashingtondelusionthatsomemoderate
oppositionistswouldreplaceAssadandbringahappydemocracytoSyria.Similardelusionspreceded
thecatastrophesofregimechangeinIraqandLibyaandonecouldevengobacktotheReagan
administrationsregimechangegoalinAfghanistanthatledtotheemergenceoftheTaliban,AlQaeda
andmodernjihadisminthefirstplace.
U.S.SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonandRussianForeignMinisterSergeyLavrov.(Photocredit:DepartmentofState)
ButtodaythestakesincludeapotentialnuclearshowdownwithRussiawiththeUnitedStatesbeing
urgedtotakeonthatexistentialriskforallhumankindonbehalfofpreservingAlQaedashopesfor
raisingitsblackflagoverDamascus.IftherehaseverbeenacrazierdemandbymajorforeignpolicyplayersinOfficialWashington,itishardtoimaginewhatitmighthavebeen.
[Formoreonthistopic,seeConsortiumnews.comsTangledThreadsofUSFalseNarratives,HiddenOriginsofSyriasCivilWar,andObamasMostMomentousDecision.]
InvestigativereporterRobertParrybrokemanyoftheIran-ContrastoriesforTheAssociatedPressandNewsweekinthe1980s.Youcanbuyhislatestbook,AmericasStolen
Narrative,eitherinprinthereorasane-book(fromAmazonandbarnesandnoble.com).
From: OfficialPTPPoll<admin@turnoutpac.org>
Senttime: 06/10/201602:02:05PM
Subject: YOUTRUMP
NAME:robertotto25@gmail.com|SUPPORTERID:#954882
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Senttime: 06/06/201610:33:32AM
FW:[LATESUNNITERUN][NICMDC]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPolandFinlandSweden
Subject:
RussianforcesNovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17RussianpolityB
Sent:Sunday,June05,20169:12PM
Subject:[LATESUNNITERUN][NICMDC]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPolandFinland
SwedenRussianforcesNovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17Russianpolity
Bu...
From:VolodymyrZarycky<cusurwaz@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Jun6,2016at12:06AM
Subject:[LATESUNNITERUN][NICMDC]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPoland
FinlandSwedenRussianforcesNovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17
RussianpolityBulgariaMediaHumanrightsHybridmore[PB]JeffreySachisGivingOutAdviceAgain..Hide
theValuables!!
Date:Sun,Jun5,2016at4:38PM
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPolandFinlandSwedenRussianforces
NovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17Russianpolity
BulgariaMediaHumanrightsHybridmore
To:
TheSMMobservedalowerlevelofviolenceinDonetskregionandmoreceasefireviolationsinLuhanskregioncomparedwith
thepreviousday.TheMissioncontinuedtomonitorthewithdrawalofheavyweaponsitnotedalsoarmouredcombatvehiclesand
otherhardwareinthesecurityzone.
SpotReportbyOSCESpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraine(SMM):SMMlosesunmannedaerialvehicleoverKorsun
AT18:16(EET)on2JunetheSMMlostallcommunicationwithanSMMlong-rangeunmannedaerialvehicle(UAV)whileit
wasflyingatanaltitudeof9,000ftintheareabetweenDPR-controlledKorsun(31kmnorth-eastofDonetsk)andDPR-
controlledShevchenko(28kmnorth-eastofDonetsk)
UkrainianPresident:NewRussianspecialforcesunitsarrivedintheDonbas
http://uawire.org/news/ukrainian-president-new-units-of-russian-special-forces-arrived-in-the-donbass
OSCEconsidersarmedpolicemissiontoDonbasamidviolenceescalation
http://uatoday.tv/opinion/osce-considers-armed-police-mission-to-donbas-amid-violence-escalation-666357.html
UNSeesThreatofProtractedWarinEastUkraineConflict
ThelatestU.N.figuresshownearly9,400peoplehavebeenkilledandmorethan21,500otherswoundedsincetheconflict
beganinmid-April2014.
U.N.monitorssaidactivefightinghasdecreasedbut,theywarn,theMinskpeaceagreementisfragileandthesituationcould
developintoaprotractedconflictorescalateagain.
Theysaidbothscenarioswouldhavedireconsequencesforthecivilianpopulationandbeharmfultohumanrightsformanyyears.
U.N.HumanRightsspokeswomanRavinaShamdasanitoldVOAthereisaworryingincreaseinheavyweaponrynearthecontact
line,whichborderstheDonetskregionineasternUkraineandthegovernment-controlledarea.
TherehavebeenstronglycrediblereportsofservicemenfromacrosstheborderfromRussiacomingintoandoutofUkrainian
territory,"shesaid."And,thesamegoesforheavyweaponryaswell.Therehavebeenverycrediblereports.
ThereportaccusesthearmedrulersofeasternUkraineofwidespreadhumanrightsviolationsandabuses.Itsays2.7million
civilianslivingundertheircontrolhavenofreedomofexpression,assemblyandassociation.
http://www.voanews.com/content/un-sees-threat-protracted-war-east-ukraine-conflict/3360739.html
Historyoftheconflict
RussianunitsspottedinEasternUkraine
200-.2/1
http://sled-vzayt.livejournal.com/4624.html
Baltics
MerkelannouncesGermanbattaliongroupforBaltics
GermanywillcommitabattalionsworthoftroopstoNATOsmissionintheBalticsaspartofaplantobeefuptheallied
presenceintheregionwhilemaintainingapost-ColdWarpledgenottopositionpermanentforcesalongRussiasborder,German
ChancellorAngelaMerkelsaidThursday.
Wewillcontributealsototherotatingpresencethere,andwewanttodosoparticularlyinregardtoLithuania,Merkelsaid
duringanewsconferenceinBerlin.
http://www.stripes.com/news/merkel-announces-german-battalion-group-for-baltics-1.412730
Balticarmsbuildupwill'preventconflict,'saysNATOchiefStoltenberg
SpeakingwithGermanChancellorAngelaMerkel,NATOchiefStoltenberghassaidtheblocisreinforcingitsBalticbattalionsto
preventaconflictwithRussia.Hedeniedbeingina"newColdWar"withMoscow.
http://www.dw.com/en/baltic-arms-buildup-will-prevent-conflict-says-nato-chief-stoltenberg/a-19300734
'Russiaisbackwith19th-centurygoalsand21st-centurymeans'-Estoniapresident
http://uatoday.tv/politics/ra-russia-is-back-with-19th-century-goals-and-21st-century-means-665197.html
TheFinnishNavytotakepartinBALTOPS16
http://merivoimat.fi/en/article/-/asset_publisher/merivoimat-mukana-baltops16-harjoituksessa
Poland
PolandToRecruit35,000ForParamilitaryForceToCounterRussia
PolandsaysitwillstartrecruitinginSeptemberforanew35,000-strongparamilitaryforceamidtensionswithRussia.
DefenseMinisterAntoniMacierewiczsaidonJune2thattheforce'scommandstructureandseniorappointmentshadalready
beendecided.
PriorityindeploymentwillbegiventoeasternprovincesdeemedtobethemostexposedtoRussianpressure.
Comprisingcivilianvolunteerstrainedinmilitaryskills,officialssaidtheforceisaimedatcountering"hybridwarfareofthekind
thatWesternofficialssayRussiausedtoseizeUkraine'sCrimeanPeninsulaandsupportseparatistsinthecountry'seast.
InApril,MacierewiczsaidthenewparamilitaryforcewasneededbecausePoland"isthreatenedbytheactionsofourneighbor
Russia,whichmakesnosecretofitsaggressiveintentions.
http://www.rferl.org/content/poland-paramilitary-force-countering--russia/27777031.html
Polandplansparamilitaryforceof35,000tocounterRussia
Volunteerswillundergoabout30days'militarytrainingayearandthefirstthreebrigadesarescheduledtobeoperationalin
easternPolandbythestartofnextyear,withtheremaining14intherestofthecountryexpectedtobereadyin2019.
OneofthefirstthreebrigadeswilldefendPoland'sborderwithKaliningrad.ThewarinUkrainetriggereddiscussionaboutthe
territorialunitsinbothPolandandtheBalticstates,whichalreadyhavethem.
Finland
PutintovisitFinlandinthesummer
PutintillFinlandisommar
http://svenska.yle.fi/artikel/2016/06/03/putin-till-finland-i-sommar
Sweden
Swedishdefenceministerstatesthatcollaborationistopreventcrisesandwars.
Hultqvist:Samverkanskerfrattundvikakriserochkrig
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/hultqvist-samverkan-sker-for-att-undvika-kriser-och-krig/
[SentbyStefanForss]
Russianforces
TheFourthBattleoftheAtlantic
WithmoreactivityfromRussiansubmarinesthanweveseensincethedaysoftheColdWar,animprovedEuropeanforce
posturebecomesvitalfortheU.S.NavyandNATO.
http://www.usni.org/node/87164
Russiatodeploytwobrigadestoitswesternborder
http://uawire.org/news/russia-to-deploy-two-brigades-to-its-western-border
RussiantoDeployMoreForceAtWesternBordertoCounterNATO
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/571269.html
[SendbyStefanForss]
IntelligenceBriefing:LatestDevelopmentsinRussianArmouredFightingVehicles
http://www.janes.com/article/60778/extract-intelligence-briefing-latest-developments-in-russian-armoured-fighting-vehicles
Borei-ClassSSBNJoinsRussianNavysPermanentReadinessForce
http://www.conflict-news.com/articles/borei-class-ssbn-joins-russian-navys-permanent-readiness-force
[StefanForss]
Novorossiya
Russia's'valianthero'inUkraineturnshisfireonVladimirPutin
IgorStrelkov,RussianmilitaryheroofthewarinUkraine,stepsoutoftheshadowstofiresalvoatPresidentPutinandpredict
upheavalinRussia
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/05/russias-valiant-hero-in-ukraine-turns-his-fire-on-vladimir-putin
DonetskfacesacreepingRussification
ManyfearcityswideningsplitfromrestofUkrainecouldcomplicatereintegration
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1425647c-297f-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89.html#axzz4AjR9g2KN
[SentbyStefanForss]

NATO
NATOMovingtoCreateNewIntelligenceChiefPost
http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-considers-new-intelligence-chief-post-1464968453
EstonianPM:WeexpectNATOtoestablishafirmpositioninrelationtoRussia'sactions
http://uawire.org/news/estonian-pm-we-expect-nato-to-establish-a-firm-position-in-relation-to-russia-s-actions
PISMReport:NATOandtheFutureofPeaceinEurope:TowardsaTailoredApproach
http://www.pism.pl/Publications/PISM_Report/NATO-and-the-Future-of-Peace-in-Europe
MissileDefence
MissiledefenseWouldtheKremlinpitchadeal?
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2016/06/02-missile-defense-russia-pifer
[SentbyStefanForss,whowrites:
TheRS-26Rubezh,formallyanICBMbecauseitonceflew5800kmwithaverylightoremptypayload-butinrealitythenew
Russianflagshipamongthenew"eurostrategic"missilesisbetterthantheSS-20eliminatedinINF.RubezhisessentiallyanRS-24
Yarswithonestagestrippedoff.
MyassessmentisthattherangeoftheIskander-Mis700+km,somethingconfirmedbyotherexperts.Admittedly,wedon'thave
officialproofthatIskanderhasbeentestedtosuchranges.Ontheotherhandweknow,thattheRussianshavebeenverycareful
preparingtheirflighttests.Theydoitindarknesstocomplicatemonitoringbyopticalimagingsatellites,theychoosetimeslots
carefullytoavoidhavingothertypesofsatellites,suchassyntheticapertureradar(SAR)imagingsatellitesoverhead.Afairguessis
thattheRussiansknowfullywhichthecapabilitiesoftheirmissilesare.AnotherfactortokeepinmindisthefactthattheRussian
militarywouldbereluctanttoacceptonlypartiallytestedweaponsystemsinfullspectrumoperationaluse.
Given,thatanimprovedversionofIskander-Mhaspotentialtofly1000km,Russiawouldindeedhavereplacedallweapons
systemslostinINF:SS-20Saber,SS-12Scaleboard,SS-23Spiderandtheground-launchedcruisemissileSSC-X-4.
TheseRussiandevelopmentswon'tgoawayjustbyturningablindeye.Theyneedtoberecognizedandpoliticaldecisionsneedto
betakenaccordingly.
Thesituationisrathersimilartotheonethatbeganinthesecondhalfofthe1970s.Aseconddual-trackdecisionastheone
adoptedin1979isanon-starter.Sub-strategicnucleardeterrencewillhavetobeupheldwithmoresubtlemeans.B61-12isakey
projectinthisregard.Thatis,however,farfromenough.Thereforesub-strategicmissiledefenseissorelyneeded.It'stechnical
prospectsarenotbad,justlookatwhatIsraelhasachieved.Unfortunatelythegeneraldebatehasbecomeutterlybiased.Strong
voicessayNATOshouldrefrainfrommissiledefense,forthesimplereasonthatRussiadoesn'tlikeit.Hasanybodyheard
objectionsagainstIskander,Kalibrandotherdual-useweaponsthreateningus?Ok,someRussianambassadorshaveoccasionally
beensummonedtohearformalcomplaintsafterincidentsordeplorableofficialstatements,butthat'saboutit.]
GermanyFrance
GermanyandFrancearerevivingmilitarycooperationbuttherearestillnoplansforanEUarmy
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-germany-france-to-revive-eu-defense-but-no-plans-for-eu-army-2016-6?r=US&IR=T&IR=T
Brexit
Militarythink-tanksaysBrexitwillcausedefenceshock
http://next.ft.com/content/149dfe72-28d1-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89

WouldaNewSDSRBeNeededAfteraBrexitVote?
http://rusi.org/publication/briefing-papers/SDSR-Brexit
Sanctions
U.S.SendsEnvoyToUrgeEuropeToMaintainRussianSanctions
http://www.rferl.mobi/a/us-treasury-sends-szubin-europe-urge-maintain-russian-sanctions-iran-nuclear-deal-
implementation/27778918.html
USPolicy
Americaistiredofbeingtheworldsprotector.Wehavebeenwarned
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/02/america-is-tired-of-being-the-worlds-protector-we-have-been-warn/
NATO'stopsoldiersaysTrumpcommentsplayintohandsofPutin
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-asia-security-nato-idUKKCN0YP1SC
MH17
MH17crash:ProsecutorsincreasepressureonRussia
MH17investigationat'advancedstage'
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-mh-idUSKCN0YP1YQ
Russianpolity
UnitedRussia,dividedPutin
Thepresidenthascrushedtheopposition,buttechnocratsandsecurityhawksarefightingforhisfavour
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21699944-president-has-crushed-opposition-technocrats-and-security-hawks-are-
fighting-his
Bulgaria
BulgariarequestssurplusF-16sfromPortugal
http://www.janes.com/article/60955/bulgaria-requests-surplus-f-16s-from-portugal
Media
Ukrainianpresidentcondemnsleakofjournalistdata
http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-ukrainian-president-condemns-leak-of-journalist-data-2016-6?r=US&IR=T&IR=T
Humanrights
TheUnitedNationsonFridayaccusedboththeUkrainianauthoritiesandpro-Russianrebelsoftorturingfightersandtheir
sympathiserscapturedintheseparatisteast.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/31761835/un-accuses-ukrainian-authorities-and-rebels-of-torture/
SBUrefutesUNallegationsoftortureofdetaineesfrom"LPR-DPR"
http://www.unian.info/politics/1365472-sbu-refutes-un-allegations-of-torture-of-detainees-from-lpr-dpr.html
Hybridwar
EuropeStillinDenialasRussiaUshersintheAgeofHybridHostilities
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/europe-still-in-denial-as-russia-ushers-in-the-age-of-hybrid-hostilities
PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAllies,FDDStudyFinds
http://www.defenddemocracy.org/media-hit/joe-dougherty-putin-using-hybrid-warfare-to-challenge-united-states-and-allies-fdd-
study/#sthash.NSJyXKXn.dpuf
[SentbyStefanForss]
Caucuses
AngeredAtArmsSalesToAzerbaijan,ArmeniansPushAwayFromRussiasEmbrace
RussianforcesinSyria
RussianTu-142appearsoverSyriaforthefirsttime(thedayaftertheUSNlaunchedfirststrikesfromtheMedSea)
http://theaviationist.com/2016/06/05/russian-tu-142-appears-over-syria-for-the-first-time-the-day-after-the-usn-launched-first-
strikes-from-the-med-sea/
Syriacivilwar:ThemessagefromMoscow
FactsonthegroundshowMoscowmaybejustifyingandpavingthewayforalarge-scaleoffensiveagainstal-Nusra.
http://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/middleeast/2016/06/syria-civil-war-message-moscow-nusra-160604163154005.html
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Subject:Clinton'sSpeechShowsThatOnlySandersIsFitforthePresidency[ED:AgreewithPeter..Checkthisout
ol'JeffreySachs,thearchitectof'oligarchic'Russia,isgivingadviceagain..OHBOY!!!]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>
Thisfromthe"genius"whogavebirthtoRussia'sOligarchs.LookslikethelatterdayDr.Frankensteincontinuestoworkforthe
monstershecreated.Well,nodoubt,thepayisbetternow.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-sachs/-clintons-speech-shows-th_b_10306592.html
Senttime: 06/12/201610:35:14AM
FW:[SATEVENINGPOST/EST][HU]TELEGRAPH/DavidB:UkraineisagreatEuropeanstate.Lestweforget,itisstillatwar..[ANT/F]Brexit/NordStream2/"".[SAMO]"BigDayTomorrow...Euro-
Subject:
Cup...Ukes"[ANT/F]Lomachenko...
Subject:Fwd:[SATEVENINGPOST/EST][HU]TELEGRAPH/DavidB:UkraineisagreatEuropeanstate.Lestweforget,itisstillatwar..[ANT/F]Brexit/NordStream2/"".[SAMO]"Big
DayTomorrow...Euro-Cup...Ukes"[ANT/F]Lomachenko...
Subject:[SATEVENINGPOST/EST][HU]TELEGRAPH/DavidB:UkraineisagreatEuropeanstate.Lestweforget,itisstillatwar..[ANT/F]Brexit/NordStream2/"
".[SAMO]"BigDayTomorrow...Euro-Cup...Ukes"...[ANT/F]Lomachenkovs.MartinezOnlineMaterial..[VRT][CLASSICRUDEZINFORM]RobertParry:RiskingNuclearWarforAl
Qaeda?
From:hunter@
Subject:UkraineisagreatEuropeanstate.Lestweforget,itisstillatwar
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/11/ukraine-is-a-great-european-state-lest-we-forget-it-is-still-at/
UkraineisagreatEuropeanstate.Lestweforget,itisstillatwar
DAVIDBLAIR
11JUNE20167:00PM/DAILYTELEGRAPH

StSophiaCathedralinKievwasbuiltbyYaroslavtheWisealmost1,000yearsago.CREDIT:AP
Formuchofthe20thcentury,Europewasfilledwithcapitalcitiesatwar.Asrecentlyasthe1990s,placeslikeBelgrade,SarajevoandZagreballfellintothistragiccategory.Buttodaythereisonlyone:Kievin
Ukraine.
ThankstothepredatoryambitionsofVladimirPutin,UkraineisthesoleEuropeancountrythatiswagingwaronitsownsoil.AndKievhasavery20thcenturyritual:thedailyannouncementofthecommuniqu
fromthefront.At12.30precisely,ColonelAndriyLysenko,alantern-jawedmilitaryspokesman,readsoutthelatestnewsfromtheeast,whereUkrainiantroopsarefightingbattlesofattritionwithRussianforces
andtheirlocalallies,whooccupyabouthalfoftheneighbouringregionsofDonetskandLuhansk.
ThefrontlineineasternUkrainenolongermoves,butthedailybloodshedseemsunstoppable
ColLysenkoappearsonastagedesignedtosendamessageallofitsown.Behindhimisapatternoftrianglespaintedyellowandbluethenationalcoloursandallpointedleftward:inthedirectionoftheWest
andUkrainesdestinytobecomeanormalEuropeancountry,notaRussiansatellite.
ThestagealsocarriesanunusuallybanalbutfitforpurposesayingofTarasShevchenko,thepoetandauthorregardedastheChaucerofUkrainianliterature,whoapparentlysaid:Battleonandwinyour
battles!
OnthedayIvisited,ColLysenkostoodbeforethisdisplayandreadoutthegrimtidings.Duringthelast24hours,therewerenocalmareasofthefrontline,hesaid.InDonetsktherewasintensiveshelling.
TheRussianshadfired150mortarbombsorartilleryshellsin14separateincidents,hesaid,killingoneUkrainiansoldierandwoundinganothernine.
SomuchfortheMinskceasefireagreements.ThefrontlineineasternUkrainenolongermoves,butthedailybloodshedseemsunstoppable.
OneothertraditionalfeatureofawartimeEuropeancapitalistherecruitmentbanner.Sureenough,picturesofresolutesoldierstotingfearsomemachine-gunsarefoundacrossKiev.Theslogansontheselatter-day
KitchenerposterswouldnotgodownwellinareasofEuropethatliketothinkofthemselvesasenlightened.
Menswork!readsonebanner,aboveapictureofasoldiermountedonatank.Signacontracttobecomearealman!declaresanother,illustratingapictureoftwoburlyvolunteers.
Thereisnodoubtabouttheintensityoffighting,northescaleofthesuffering.Thewarintheeasthasclaimedmorethan9,000livessince2014anddrivenasmanyas1.7millionpeoplefromtheirhomes.
Today,anareathatcontainsUkrainesindustrialheartlandandmostofitscoalreserveshasslippedoutofthehandsofKievandintoapost-Soviettwilightzone.
Inourowntime,KievhasbeenunjustlyovershadowedbyMoscowandBerlin
ThepeoplesrepublicsofDonetskandLuhanskaretheunrecognisedorphansofEurope.Russiapropsthemupwithweapons,troopsandmoney,buthasdeclinedtofollowitsownexampleinCrimeaand
actuallyannexthem.MrPutindoesnotwanttobearthefullcostofthebankruptstateletshehascreatedbyforceofarms.
Meanwhile,Ukrainesarmycanpreventthepeoplesrepublicsfromexpanding,butitlacksthemilitarystrengthtorecapturethem.
Forallthebravado,Ukrainemayalsolackthewill.Despitethestridentpostersandthedailycommuniqusfromthefront,thereisnotmuchsignthatthepeopleofKievareyearningfortherecoveryofthelost
territorieslikethe19thcenturyFrenchyearnedforthereturnofAlsaceandLorraine.DonetskandLuhanskarelikeadifferentcountry,saysonefriend.
StSophiaCathedralisanarchitecturalgemmodelledonHagiaSophiabesidetheBosphorus.PrinceYaroslavtheWisebuiltKievalmostathousandyearsagoinconsciousimitationofConstantinople.Today,his
stonesarcophagusliesbeneaththegoldendomesofthecathedralthathecreatedalthoughwithouthisremains,whichappeartohavebeenlostduringtheturmoilofthe20thcentury.
YaroslavskingdomwasalliedtotheByzantineEmpireinConstantinopleandhisdaughter,Anne,marriedKingHenryIofFrance.YaroslavhimselfmarriedthedaughteroftheKingofSweden.Allthisgoesto
showthatKievwasattheheartoftheEuropeanstatessystemforcenturies.Inourowntime,KievhasbeenunjustlyovershadowedbyMoscowandBerlin.Buthavenodoubt:thisisagreatEuropeancapitalinits
ownright.
Subject:Brexit/NordStream2/""
To:
Britain'sEUreferendumcouldleadtothebreak-upoftheEUitself,Sweden'sforeignministerhaswarned.
MargotWallstromtoldtheBBCadominoeffectofdemandsforreferendumsandrequestsforpreferentialtermsbymemberstatescouldfollow.
"Thespill-overeffectwillbeunfortunatelyfelt,deeplyfelt,"shesaid."Itwouldbebadeitherway,"sheadded.
ThereferendumintheUKwilltakeplaceon23June.
ApollfortheIndependentnewspaper,publishedonFridayevening,suggestedthattheLeavecampaignhad10-pointlead...
SupportforaDanishreferendumonEUmembershipisontherise.
http://euobserver.com/institutional/133738
FortytwopercentofDanesnowwantavoteonwhetherDenmarkshouldcontinuetobeamemberoftheEU.Thatisfivepercentmorethanjustthreemonthsago.
InFebruary,only37percentsaidtheywantedaUK-typereferendum.
EUlikelytoextendRussiasanctionsbeforesummit
NordStream2:Businessunusual
http://euobserver.com/business/133720
...ThefirmsbuildingNordStream2areGermanysBASFandE.ON,Engie(France),OMV(Austria)andShell(Anglo-Dutch)togetherwithGazprom,theRussianenergychampionwhichhas
themajoritystake.
Theventureisunusualinseveralways.
Itrisksbeingblockedbysanctions,byEUlaworbypolitics.Itriskslackofdemand.Itispricierthanalternativeoptions.ItalsotiestheEUfirmsmorecloselytoapartner,Gazprom,thatis
controlledbyRussiansecurityservicesandthatisbleedingvalueatarapidrate.
ForJensMueller,aSwissPRmanwhoworksforNordStream2theconsortiumisbasedintheSwisstownofZugtheEUsanctionsdonotposeaproblem.MuellertoldEUobserverthatthe
sanctionsweredesignedtoletNordStream2goahead...
ByEricMaurice
Prague,8.Jun,10:22TheFrenchgovernmentistryingtopassalawthatwouldhelpRussiatoprotectitsassetsfrombeingfrozeninbusiness
conflicts.
:""
http://www.eurointegration.com.ua/news/2016/06/11/7050619/
From:roman<samoklaus@hotmail.com>
Subject:BigDayTomorrow...Euro-Cup...Ukes[ED:It'stheEuro-Championship.anditisbig!!!]
To:Denny<drdenny324@gmail.com>,alexander<lesykb@hotmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,PeterChoma<pchoma2@verizon.net>,roman<samoklaus@hotmail.com>,
"yurijazz@gmail.com"<yurijazz@gmail.com>,ArthurHryhorowych<anh@nyc.rr.com>,IhorPaluch<ipaluch@verizon.net>,"Mishkaof2ndAvenue."<lycholat@earthlink.net>,20MORE
AsmanyknowSoccerisOurCountry'smostbelovedGame(Our'Pidhahra')
WefacepowerhouseGermanyinouropener...Theexpertsgive(us)asmallchancetowintomorrowbutourlasttwowarmupswebeatRomania2-0thenAlbania3-1...Weareonanupswing
...TrustmewehavesomeWorldClassplayersonthepitch
OurdearUkeBroArtieisonhiswaytoFrancetowatchtheUkeslive...Let'swishhimandCountryWell..
InourgroupwewillfacePolandandNorthernIrelandaswell...Toptwomoveon...
Asweallknow...OurCountryisinabiggerfightforsurvival

ButtomorrowisatimefortheCountrytofeelapositivespiritasweputourmindonourNationalgame..
"
~S
Subject:FW:-:-(today)
To:
today:
-:-
http://dt.ua/SPORT/lomachenko-martines-video-onlayn-translyaciya-boyu-210948_.html
(youcanwatchina"privatew/indow"iftranslationiscountryrestricted)
VasylLomachenkoHighlights
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EgVvvX2T418
PublishedonMay30,2016
From:VRT
Subject:[ED:INTHERUDEZINFORMHALLOFFAME]RobertParry:RiskingNuclearWarforAlQaeda?
RiskingNuclearWarforAlQaeda?
Exclusive:Theriskthatthemulti-sidedSyrianwarcouldsparkWorldWarIIIcontinuesasTurkey,SaudiArabiaandU.S.neoconsseekaninvasionthatcouldkillRussiantroopsandpossiblyescalate
theSyriancrisisintoanuclearshowdown,amazinglytoprotectAlQaedaterrorists,reportsRobertParry.
ByRobertParry
WhenPresidentBarackObamatookquestionsfromreportersonTuesday,theonethatneededtobeaskedbutwasntwaswhetherhehadforbiddenTurkeyandSaudiArabiatoinvadeSyria,because
onthatquestioncouldhingewhethertheuglySyriancivilwarcouldspinoffintoWorldWarIIIandpossiblyanuclearshowdown.
IfTurkey(withhundredsofthousandsoftroopsmassedneartheSyrianborder)andSaudiArabia(withitssophisticatedairforce)followthroughonthreatsandintervenemilitarilytosavetheirrebel
clients,whoincludeAlQaedasNusraFront,fromapowerfulRussian-backedSyriangovernmentoffensive,thenRussiawillhavetodecidewhattodotoprotectits20,000orsomilitarypersonnelinside
Syria.
AsourceclosetoRussianPresidentVladimirPutintoldmethattheRussians
havewarnedTurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdoganthatMoscowisprepared
tousetacticalnuclearweaponsifnecessarytosavetheirtroopsinthefaceofa
Turkish-Saudionslaught.SinceTurkeyisamemberofNATO,anysuchconflict
couldquicklyescalateintoafull-scalenuclearconfrontation.
GivenErdogansmegalomaniaormentalinstabilityandtheaggressivenessand
inexperienceofSaudiPrinceMohammadbinSalman(defenseministerandsonofKing
Salman),theonlypersonwhoprobablycanstopaTurkish-SaudiinvasionisPresident
Obama.ButImtoldthathehasbeenunwillingtoflatlyprohibitsuchanintervention,
thoughhehassoughttocalmErdogandownandmadeclearthattheU.S.militarywould
notjointheinvasion. PresidentBarackObamameetswithVicePresidentJoeBidenandotheradvisersintheOvalOfficeonFeb.2,2016.[WhiteHousephoto]
Sofar,ErdoganhaslimitedTurkeysdirectmilitaryattacksonSyriatocross-border
shellingagainstU.S.-backedKurdishforcesthathaveseizedterritoryfromtheIslamicState(alsoknownasISIS)innorthernSyria.TurkeyconsiderstheKurdishfighters,knownasYPG,tobeterrorists
buttheU.S.governmentseesthemasvaluablealliesinthefightagainstIslamicStateterrorists,anAlQaedaspinoffthatcontrolslargeswathsofSyriaandIraq.
ButErdogansshortfusemayhavegrownshorteronWednesdaywhenapowerfulcarbombkilledatleast28peopleinTurkeyscapitalofAnkara.Thebombapparentlytargetedamilitaryconvoyand
TurkishofficialscastsuspiciononKurdishmilitantswhoalsohavebeenunderassaultfromTurkishforcesinsideTurkey.
Thoughshowingnoevidence,TurkishofficialssuggestedtheattackmayhavebeensponsoredbyIranorRussia,anothersignofhowcomplicatedthegeopoliticalmorassinSyriahasbecome.Those
whothinktheycansteerourcountryawayfromourgoalsbyusingterroristorganizationswillseethattheyhavefailed,declaredErdogan,accordingtoTheWallStreetJournal.
(OnWednesdaynight,TurkeyretaliatedfortheAnkarabombingbylaunchingairstrikesagainstKurdishtargetsinnorthernIraq.)
ThedilemmaforObamaisthatmanytraditionalU.S.allies,suchasTurkey,SaudiArabiaandQatar,havebeentheprincipalbackersandfundersofSunniterrorgroupsinsideSyria,includingAlQaedas
NusraFrontandtoalesserdegreetheIslamicState.Now,theallieswanttheUnitedStatestoriskanuclearconfrontationwithRussiato,ineffect,protectAlQaeda.
BidenBlurtsOutTruth
ThetwistedrealitywasacknowledgedbynolessanauthoritythanVicePresidentJoeBidenduringatalkatHarvardin2014.Bidenansweredastudents
questionbysayingTurkey,SaudiArabiaandtheUnitedArabEmirateshadpouredhundredsofmillionsofdollarsandtens,thousandsoftonsofweaponsinto
anyonewhowouldfightagainst[SyrianPresidentBasharal-]Assad.Theresult,Bidensaid,wasthatthepeoplewhowerebeingsuppliedwereAlNusraand
AlQaedaandtheextremistelementsofjihadiscomingfromotherpartsoftheworld.
TherisksfromthesetangledallianceswerealsohighlightedbyaDefenseIntelligenceAgencyreportinAugust2012,warningtheObamaadministrationthat
thegrowingstrengthofAlQaedaandotherSunnijihadistsinSyriacouldleadtothecreationofanIslamicstatewhosemilitantscouldmovebackintoIraq
wherethethreatoriginatedaftertheU.S.invasionofIraq.
TheDIAsaidAlQaedasgrowingstrengthinSyriacreatestheidealatmosphereforAQI[AlQaedainIraq]toreturntoitsoldpocketsinMosulandRamadiand
willprovidearenewedmomentumunderthepresumptionofunifyingthejihadamongSunniIraqandSyriaandtherestoftheSunnisintheArabworldagainst
whatitconsidersoneenemy,thedissenters[i.e.theShiites].
ISI[IslamicStateofIraq,forerunnerofISIS,alsoknownastheIslamicState]couldalsodeclareanIslamicstatethroughitsunionwithotherterrorist
organizationsinIraqandSyria,whichwillcreategravedangerinregardstounifyingIraqandtheprotectionofitsterritory. TurkishPresidentRecepTayyipErdogan.
DespitetheprescientDIAreportandBidensbluntadmission(forwhichhequicklyapologized),PresidentObamafailedtoputastoptothestrategyof
supportingAssadsopponents.HeletSaudiArabia,QatarandTurkeycontinuefunnelingweaponstothemostextremeelementsoftherebellion.Meanwhile,theU.S.governmentinsistedthatitwas
onlyarmingmoderaterebels,butthosegroupswerelargelysubsumedorcontrolledbyAlQaedasNusraand/orISIS,ahyper-violentspinofffromAlQaeda.
InSyria,ratherthancooperatewithRussiaandIraninhelpingAssadsmilitarydefeatthejihadists,theObamaadministrationhascontinuedplayingitcute,insistingasSecretaryofStateJohnKerryhas
saidrecentlythatarmedlegitimateoppositiongroupsexistseparatelyfromAlQaedasNusraFront.
Inreality,however,theso-calledmoderaterebelsaroundAleppoandIdlibareAlQaedasjuniorpartners
whosevaluetothecauseisthattheyqualifyforCIAweaponrythatcanthenbepassedontoNusraaswell
asNusraskeyallyAhraral-Shamandotherjihadistfighters.
NusraandAhraral-Sham,thechiefelementsoftheSaudi-createdArmyofConquest,deployedU.S.TOW
missilestodevastatingeffectagainsttheSyrianarmyinthejihadistsvictorylastyearinIdlibprovince,a
successthatfinallypromptedPutintocommitRussianairpowertodefendtheSyriangovernmentlast
September.
HelpingtheIslamicState
SecretaryofStateJohnKerryaddressesreportersinGenevaonNov.8,2013,(Photocredit:StateDepartment)
Meanwhile,Turkeyhasleftabout100kilometersofitsborderopenforvariousjihadistgroupstobringin
reinforcementsandweaponswhilelettingtheIslamicStatesmuggleoutoilforsaleontheblackmarket.Last
fall,afterRussia(andareluctantUnitedStates)beganbombingISISoil-truckconvoys,TurkeyshotdownaRussianbombernearTurkeysborder,leadingtothedeathsofthepilotandarescuer.
Now,astheRussian-backedSyrianarmymakesmajorgainsagainsttheNusra-dominatedrebelsaroundAleppoandencroachesonIslamicStateterritorynearRaqqaandasU.S.-backedKurdishforces
alsoadvanceagainstISISTurkeysErdoganhasgrownfranticovertheprospectsthathisfive-yearprojectofaidingSyrianjihadistsmaybecollapsing.
Amidthisdesperation,TurkeyhasbeenurgingPresidentObamatosupportalimitedinvasionofSyriatocreateasafezone,supposedlytoprotectSyrianrebelsandciviliansinnorthernSyria.Butthat
humanitarian-soundingplanmaywellbeacoverforamoreambitiousplantomarchtoDamascusandforciblyremovePresidentAssadfrompower.
ThatisagoalsharedbyTurkey,SaudiArabiaandotherSunnistatesalongwithIsraelandAmericasinfluentialneoconservativesandtheirliberalinterventionistsidekicks.Forhispart,Obamahas
calledonAssadtogobuthasfavoreddiplomaticnegotiationstoachievethatend.RussiahasadvocatedapoliticalsettlementwithfreeelectionssotheSyrianpeoplecandecideAssadsfuture
themselves.
TheRussiansalsokeenlyremembertheWestssubterfugeregardingLibyain2011whentheU.S.anditsNATOalliespushedahumanitarianresolutionthroughtheUnitedNationsSecurityCouncil
supposedlytoprotectLibyanciviliansbutthenusedittoachieveviolentregimechange,aclassiccaseofthecamelgettingitsnoseintothetent.
OnSyria,RussiawatchedforyearsastheUnitedStates,Turkey,SaudiArabia,QatarandotherSunnistatessupportedvariousSunnirebelgroupsseekingtooverthrowAssad,anAlawite,representing
abranchofShiiteIslam.ThoughAssadhasbeenwidelycriticizedfortheharshresponsetotheuprising,hemaintainsaseculargovernmentthathasprotectedChristians,Alawites,Shiitesandother
minorities.
BesidesbeingatargetofSunniregionalpowers,AssadhaslongbeenontheIsraeli-neoconhitlistbecausehesseenasthecenterpieceoftheShiitecrescentstretchingfromIranthroughIraqand
SyriatoLebanon.SinceIsraelileaders(andthustheAmericanneocons)seeIranasIsraelsgreatestenemy,thegoalofcollapsingtheShiitecrescenthasconcentratedonbringingdownAssad
evenifhisousterwouldcreateapolitical/militaryvacuumthatAlQaedaand/orIslamicStatemightfill.
MakingSyriathesiteforthisproxywarhasinflictedparticularlysavageresultsontheSyrians.Forfiveyearstheviolencebyboththerebelsandthearmyhas
destroyedmuchofthecountryandkilledmorethan250,000peoplewhilealsosendingwavesofdesperaterefugeescrashingintoEurope,nowdestabilizingthe
EuropeanUnion.
However,astheU.S.anditsMideastalliesespeciallySaudiArabiaandTurkeyescalatedtheconflictlastyearbysupplyingtherebels,includingAlQaedasNusra
Front,withAmericanTOWmissilesandothersophisticatedweapons,RussianPresidentPutindecideditwastimetohelpSyriasgovernmentstopthespreadof
Sunniterrorism,athreatthathasalsoplaguedRussia.
MockingRussia
Initially,OfficialWashingtonmockedtheRussianeffortasincapableofaccomplishingmuch,buttheSyrianmilitarysrecentvictorieshaveturnedthatderisive
laughterintoshockedfury.Forone,theneoconservativeflagshipWashingtonPosthasunleashedastreamofeditorialsandop-edsdecryingtheSyrian-Russian
victories.
Russia,IranandtheSyriangovernmentareconductingamajoroffensiveaimedatrecapturingthecityofAleppoandtherebel-heldterritorythatconnectsitto
theborderwithTurkey,thePostlamented.Theyhavecutonesupplyroutetothecityandareclosetoseveringanother,trappingrebelforcesalongwith
hundredsofthousandsofcivilians. SyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad.
ThoughonemightthinkthatdrivingAlQaedasforcesoutofamajorurbancenterlikeAleppowouldbeagoodthing,thePostsneoconeditorspretendthatthe
rebelscontrollingthatareaareonlynoblemoderateswhomustbeprotectedbytheUnitedStates.NomentionismadeofAlQaedasNusraFront,soasnottospoilthedesiredpropagandatheme.
ThePostthenbadgeredObamatodosomething:Inthefaceofthisonslaught,whichpromisestodestroyanychanceofanacceptableendtotheSyriancivilwar,theObamaadministrationhasbeena
studyinpassivityandmoralconfusion.PresidentObamaissilent.
Inanotherhystericaleditorial,thePostseditorsconjuredupwhattheycalledtherealworldwherethebest-casescenarioafterfiveyearsofU.S.inactionisapartialpeacethatleavesSyriapartitioned
intozonescontrolledbythe[Assad]regimeandtheIslamicState,withafewoppositionandKurdishenclavessqueezedin.EventhatwouldrequiretheObamaadministrationtoaggressivelystepupits
militarysupportforrebelgroups,andconfrontRussiawithmorethanrhetoric.
However,intheactualrealworld,theObamaadministrationhasbeenfunnelingmilitaryequipmenttorebelsseekingtooverthrowaninternationallyrecognizedgovernmentforyears.Thatassistance
hasincludedavertingU.S.eyesfromthefactthatmanyofthoserebelgroupswerecollaboratingwithAlQaedasNusraFrontand/ortheIslamicState.
AsMideastexpertGareth
Porterreported,The
Russianairstrikesinquestion
areaimedatcuttingoff
Aleppocity,whichisnowthe
primarycenterofNusras
powerinSyria,fromthe
Turkishborder.Tosucceed
inthataim,Russian,Syrian
andIranianforcesare
IranianPresidentHassanRouhani(left)shakeshandswithRussianPresidentVladimirPutinattheShanghaiCooperationOrganizationsummitintheKyrgyzcapitalofBishkekonSept.13,2013.(Photocredit:PressTV)
attackingrebeltroops
deployedintownsallalong
theroutesfromAleppototheborder.ThoserebelsincludeunitsbelongingtoNusra,theircloseallyAhraral-Sham,andotherarmedoppositiongroupssomeofwhomhavegottenweaponsfromtheCIA
inthepast.
Informationfromawiderangeofsources,includingsomeofthosetheUnitedStateshasbeenexplicitlysupporting,makesitclearthateveryarmedanti-Assadorganizationunitinthoseprovincesis
engagedinamilitarystructurecontrolledbyNusramilitants.AlloftheserebelgroupsfightalongsidetheNusraFrontandcoordinatetheirmilitaryactivitieswithit.
ButTheWashingtonPostanditsmainstreamU.S.cohortsdontwantyoutoknowtherealrealworldrealitythatSyriassaintedmoderaterebelsarefightingsidebysidewithAlQaeda,whichwas
responsibleforkillingnearly3,000Americanson9/11andfordrawingtheU.S.militaryintoaseriesofMideastconflictsthathaveclaimedthelivesofabout8,000U.S.soldiers.
ThebizarregoalofsavingAlQaedasskinpresumablywouldnotbeaverygoodsellingpointtogetAmericansbehindanewwarthatcouldpitnuclear-armedRussiaagainstnuclear-armedAmericawith
allthehorrorsthatsuchaconflictcouldentail.
Still,theinconvenienttruthaboutAlQaedasroleoccasionallyslipsintomainstreamnewsaccounts,albeitonlyinpassing.Forinstance,NewYorkTimescorrespondentAnneBarnardreportedlast
SaturdayaboutaproposedSyriancease-fire,writing:WiththeprovisothattheNusraFront,AlQaedasbranchinSyria,canstillbebombed,RussiaputstheUnitedStatesinadifficultpositionthe
insurgentgroupsitsupportscooperateinsomeplaceswiththewell-armed,well-financedNusrainwhattheysayisatacticalallianceofnecessityagainstgovernmentforces.
ObamasQuandary
So,thequandarythatObamafacesiswhethertheUnitedStatesshouldjoinwithTurkeyandSaudiArabiainablatantinvasionofSyriatosalvageAlQaedascause.Ofcourse,thatsnothowitwouldbe
soldtotheAmericanpeople.TheprojectwouldbecouchedinprettywordsabouthumanitarianismandtheneedtomaintainU.S.credibility.
ButObamaseemstorecognizeenoughoftheactualrealitythathehassofarresistedthefranticcriesofOfficialWashingtonsneoconsandliberalhawks.ImtoldObamaalsohasdiscouragedTurkey
andSaudiArabiafromtakingmattersintotheirownhands.
Afterall,afull-scaleinvasionbyTurkeyandSaudiArabiainsupportofAlQaedaandotherSunnirebelswouldpittheinvadingforceagainstnotonlytheSyrianarmybutitsIranianandHezbollah(Shiite)
alliesandmostdangerouslyRussia,whichlacksthemanpowerinsideSyriatomatchupwiththeTurkisharmybutcoulddeploytacticalnuclearweaponsifnecessarytosavethelivesofRussiansoldiers.
So,hereisasignificantdifferencebetweenObamaandformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClinton.ShehaspubliclycalledfortheU.S.militarytoestablishasafezoneinsideSyriaalongwithano-fly
zone.Whileallthatsoundsveryniceandpeaceful,itwouldactuallyrequirethesameinvasionthatTurkeyisnowseekinganditwouldrequiretheU.S.airforcetoeliminatemuchoftheSyrianairforce
andairdefenses.Itwouldbeamajoractofwar.
OnTuesday,ObamawasaskedabouttheSyrianconflictatanewsconferencebutitwaswithinthe
typicalmainstreamframeofsuggestingthatObamaistooweakindealingwithPutin.Forfiveyears,the
mainstreamU.S.mediacantgetbeyondgoadingObamatoincreaseU.S.interventioninSyriaandthus
bringaboutanotherregimechange.
Despitethecontraryevidence,ithasremainedabelovedWashingtondelusionthatsomemoderate
oppositionistswouldreplaceAssadandbringahappydemocracytoSyria.Similardelusionspreceded
thecatastrophesofregimechangeinIraqandLibyaandonecouldevengobacktotheReagan
administrationsregimechangegoalinAfghanistanthatledtotheemergenceoftheTaliban,AlQaeda
andmodernjihadisminthefirstplace.
U.S.SecretaryofStateHillaryClintonandRussianForeignMinisterSergeyLavrov.(Photocredit:DepartmentofState)
ButtodaythestakesincludeapotentialnuclearshowdownwithRussiawiththeUnitedStatesbeing
urgedtotakeonthatexistentialriskforallhumankindonbehalfofpreservingAlQaedashopesfor
raisingitsblackflagoverDamascus.IftherehaseverbeenacrazierdemandbymajorforeignpolicyplayersinOfficialWashington,itishardtoimaginewhatitmighthavebeen.
[Formoreonthistopic,seeConsortiumnews.comsTangledThreadsofUSFalseNarratives,HiddenOriginsofSyriasCivilWar,andObamasMostMomentousDecision.]
InvestigativereporterRobertParrybrokemanyoftheIran-ContrastoriesforTheAssociatedPressandNewsweekinthe1980s.Youcanbuyhislatestbook,AmericasStolen
Narrative,eitherinprinthereorasane-book(fromAmazonandbarnesandnoble.com).
Senttime: 06/06/201610:33:32AM
FW:[LATESUNNITERUN][NICMDC]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPolandFinlandSweden
Subject:
RussianforcesNovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17RussianpolityB
Sent:Sunday,June05,20169:12PM
Subject:[LATESUNNITERUN][NICMDC]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPolandFinland
SwedenRussianforcesNovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17Russianpolity
Bu...
Date:Mon,Jun6,2016at12:06AM
Subject:[LATESUNNITERUN][NICMDC]Fwd:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPoland
FinlandSwedenRussianforcesNovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17
RussianpolityBulgariaMediaHumanrightsHybridmore[PB]JeffreySachisGivingOutAdviceAgain..Hide
theValuables!!
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineHistoryoftheconflictBalticsPolandFinlandSwedenRussianforces
NovorossiyaNATOMissileDefenceGermanyFranceBrexitSanctionsUSPolicyMH17Russianpolity
BulgariaMediaHumanrightsHybridmore
To:
TheSMMobservedalowerlevelofviolenceinDonetskregionandmoreceasefireviolationsinLuhanskregioncomparedwith
thepreviousday.TheMissioncontinuedtomonitorthewithdrawalofheavyweaponsitnotedalsoarmouredcombatvehiclesand
otherhardwareinthesecurityzone.
SpotReportbyOSCESpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraine(SMM):SMMlosesunmannedaerialvehicleoverKorsun
AT18:16(EET)on2JunetheSMMlostallcommunicationwithanSMMlong-rangeunmannedaerialvehicle(UAV)whileit
wasflyingatanaltitudeof9,000ftintheareabetweenDPR-controlledKorsun(31kmnorth-eastofDonetsk)andDPR-
controlledShevchenko(28kmnorth-eastofDonetsk)
UkrainianPresident:NewRussianspecialforcesunitsarrivedintheDonbas
http://uawire.org/news/ukrainian-president-new-units-of-russian-special-forces-arrived-in-the-donbass
OSCEconsidersarmedpolicemissiontoDonbasamidviolenceescalation
http://uatoday.tv/opinion/osce-considers-armed-police-mission-to-donbas-amid-violence-escalation-666357.html
UNSeesThreatofProtractedWarinEastUkraineConflict
ThelatestU.N.figuresshownearly9,400peoplehavebeenkilledandmorethan21,500otherswoundedsincetheconflict
beganinmid-April2014.
U.N.monitorssaidactivefightinghasdecreasedbut,theywarn,theMinskpeaceagreementisfragileandthesituationcould
developintoaprotractedconflictorescalateagain.
Theysaidbothscenarioswouldhavedireconsequencesforthecivilianpopulationandbeharmfultohumanrightsformanyyears.
U.N.HumanRightsspokeswomanRavinaShamdasanitoldVOAthereisaworryingincreaseinheavyweaponrynearthecontact
line,whichborderstheDonetskregionineasternUkraineandthegovernment-controlledarea.
TherehavebeenstronglycrediblereportsofservicemenfromacrosstheborderfromRussiacomingintoandoutofUkrainian
territory,"shesaid."And,thesamegoesforheavyweaponryaswell.Therehavebeenverycrediblereports.
ThereportaccusesthearmedrulersofeasternUkraineofwidespreadhumanrightsviolationsandabuses.Itsays2.7million
civilianslivingundertheircontrolhavenofreedomofexpression,assemblyandassociation.
http://www.voanews.com/content/un-sees-threat-protracted-war-east-ukraine-conflict/3360739.html
Historyoftheconflict
RussianunitsspottedinEasternUkraine
200-.2/1
http://sled-vzayt.livejournal.com/4624.html
Baltics
MerkelannouncesGermanbattaliongroupforBaltics
GermanywillcommitabattalionsworthoftroopstoNATOsmissionintheBalticsaspartofaplantobeefuptheallied
presenceintheregionwhilemaintainingapost-ColdWarpledgenottopositionpermanentforcesalongRussiasborder,German
ChancellorAngelaMerkelsaidThursday.
Wewillcontributealsototherotatingpresencethere,andwewanttodosoparticularlyinregardtoLithuania,Merkelsaid
duringanewsconferenceinBerlin.
http://www.stripes.com/news/merkel-announces-german-battalion-group-for-baltics-1.412730
Balticarmsbuildupwill'preventconflict,'saysNATOchiefStoltenberg
SpeakingwithGermanChancellorAngelaMerkel,NATOchiefStoltenberghassaidtheblocisreinforcingitsBalticbattalionsto
preventaconflictwithRussia.Hedeniedbeingina"newColdWar"withMoscow.
http://www.dw.com/en/baltic-arms-buildup-will-prevent-conflict-says-nato-chief-stoltenberg/a-19300734
'Russiaisbackwith19th-centurygoalsand21st-centurymeans'-Estoniapresident
http://uatoday.tv/politics/ra-russia-is-back-with-19th-century-goals-and-21st-century-means-665197.html
TheFinnishNavytotakepartinBALTOPS16
http://merivoimat.fi/en/article/-/asset_publisher/merivoimat-mukana-baltops16-harjoituksessa
Poland
PolandToRecruit35,000ForParamilitaryForceToCounterRussia
PolandsaysitwillstartrecruitinginSeptemberforanew35,000-strongparamilitaryforceamidtensionswithRussia.
DefenseMinisterAntoniMacierewiczsaidonJune2thattheforce'scommandstructureandseniorappointmentshadalready
beendecided.
PriorityindeploymentwillbegiventoeasternprovincesdeemedtobethemostexposedtoRussianpressure.
Comprisingcivilianvolunteerstrainedinmilitaryskills,officialssaidtheforceisaimedatcountering"hybridwarfareofthekind
thatWesternofficialssayRussiausedtoseizeUkraine'sCrimeanPeninsulaandsupportseparatistsinthecountry'seast.
InApril,MacierewiczsaidthenewparamilitaryforcewasneededbecausePoland"isthreatenedbytheactionsofourneighbor
Russia,whichmakesnosecretofitsaggressiveintentions.
http://www.rferl.org/content/poland-paramilitary-force-countering--russia/27777031.html
Polandplansparamilitaryforceof35,000tocounterRussia
Volunteerswillundergoabout30days'militarytrainingayearandthefirstthreebrigadesarescheduledtobeoperationalin
easternPolandbythestartofnextyear,withtheremaining14intherestofthecountryexpectedtobereadyin2019.
OneofthefirstthreebrigadeswilldefendPoland'sborderwithKaliningrad.ThewarinUkrainetriggereddiscussionaboutthe
territorialunitsinbothPolandandtheBalticstates,whichalreadyhavethem.
Finland
PutintovisitFinlandinthesummer
PutintillFinlandisommar
http://svenska.yle.fi/artikel/2016/06/03/putin-till-finland-i-sommar
Sweden
Swedishdefenceministerstatesthatcollaborationistopreventcrisesandwars.
Hultqvist:Samverkanskerfrattundvikakriserochkrig
http://www.dn.se/nyheter/sverige/hultqvist-samverkan-sker-for-att-undvika-kriser-och-krig/
[SentbyStefanForss]
Russianforces
TheFourthBattleoftheAtlantic
WithmoreactivityfromRussiansubmarinesthanweveseensincethedaysoftheColdWar,animprovedEuropeanforce
posturebecomesvitalfortheU.S.NavyandNATO.
http://www.usni.org/node/87164
Russiatodeploytwobrigadestoitswesternborder
http://uawire.org/news/russia-to-deploy-two-brigades-to-its-western-border
RussiantoDeployMoreForceAtWesternBordertoCounterNATO
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/571269.html
[SendbyStefanForss]
IntelligenceBriefing:LatestDevelopmentsinRussianArmouredFightingVehicles
http://www.janes.com/article/60778/extract-intelligence-briefing-latest-developments-in-russian-armoured-fighting-vehicles
Borei-ClassSSBNJoinsRussianNavysPermanentReadinessForce
http://www.conflict-news.com/articles/borei-class-ssbn-joins-russian-navys-permanent-readiness-force
[StefanForss]
Novorossiya
Russia's'valianthero'inUkraineturnshisfireonVladimirPutin
IgorStrelkov,RussianmilitaryheroofthewarinUkraine,stepsoutoftheshadowstofiresalvoatPresidentPutinandpredict
upheavalinRussia
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/05/russias-valiant-hero-in-ukraine-turns-his-fire-on-vladimir-putin
DonetskfacesacreepingRussification
ManyfearcityswideningsplitfromrestofUkrainecouldcomplicatereintegration
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/1425647c-297f-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89.html#axzz4AjR9g2KN
[SentbyStefanForss]

NATO
NATOMovingtoCreateNewIntelligenceChiefPost
http://www.wsj.com/articles/nato-considers-new-intelligence-chief-post-1464968453
EstonianPM:WeexpectNATOtoestablishafirmpositioninrelationtoRussia'sactions
http://uawire.org/news/estonian-pm-we-expect-nato-to-establish-a-firm-position-in-relation-to-russia-s-actions
PISMReport:NATOandtheFutureofPeaceinEurope:TowardsaTailoredApproach
http://www.pism.pl/Publications/PISM_Report/NATO-and-the-Future-of-Peace-in-Europe
MissileDefence
MissiledefenseWouldtheKremlinpitchadeal?
http://www.brookings.edu/blogs/order-from-chaos/posts/2016/06/02-missile-defense-russia-pifer
[SentbyStefanForss,whowrites:
TheRS-26Rubezh,formallyanICBMbecauseitonceflew5800kmwithaverylightoremptypayload-butinrealitythenew
Russianflagshipamongthenew"eurostrategic"missilesisbetterthantheSS-20eliminatedinINF.RubezhisessentiallyanRS-24
Yarswithonestagestrippedoff.
MyassessmentisthattherangeoftheIskander-Mis700+km,somethingconfirmedbyotherexperts.Admittedly,wedon'thave
officialproofthatIskanderhasbeentestedtosuchranges.Ontheotherhandweknow,thattheRussianshavebeenverycareful
preparingtheirflighttests.Theydoitindarknesstocomplicatemonitoringbyopticalimagingsatellites,theychoosetimeslots
carefullytoavoidhavingothertypesofsatellites,suchassyntheticapertureradar(SAR)imagingsatellitesoverhead.Afairguessis
thattheRussiansknowfullywhichthecapabilitiesoftheirmissilesare.AnotherfactortokeepinmindisthefactthattheRussian
militarywouldbereluctanttoacceptonlypartiallytestedweaponsystemsinfullspectrumoperationaluse.
Given,thatanimprovedversionofIskander-Mhaspotentialtofly1000km,Russiawouldindeedhavereplacedallweapons
systemslostinINF:SS-20Saber,SS-12Scaleboard,SS-23Spiderandtheground-launchedcruisemissileSSC-X-4.
TheseRussiandevelopmentswon'tgoawayjustbyturningablindeye.Theyneedtoberecognizedandpoliticaldecisionsneedto
betakenaccordingly.
Thesituationisrathersimilartotheonethatbeganinthesecondhalfofthe1970s.Aseconddual-trackdecisionastheone
adoptedin1979isanon-starter.Sub-strategicnucleardeterrencewillhavetobeupheldwithmoresubtlemeans.B61-12isakey
projectinthisregard.Thatis,however,farfromenough.Thereforesub-strategicmissiledefenseissorelyneeded.It'stechnical
prospectsarenotbad,justlookatwhatIsraelhasachieved.Unfortunatelythegeneraldebatehasbecomeutterlybiased.Strong
voicessayNATOshouldrefrainfrommissiledefense,forthesimplereasonthatRussiadoesn'tlikeit.Hasanybodyheard
objectionsagainstIskander,Kalibrandotherdual-useweaponsthreateningus?Ok,someRussianambassadorshaveoccasionally
beensummonedtohearformalcomplaintsafterincidentsordeplorableofficialstatements,butthat'saboutit.]
GermanyFrance
GermanyandFrancearerevivingmilitarycooperationbuttherearestillnoplansforanEUarmy
http://www.businessinsider.com/r-germany-france-to-revive-eu-defense-but-no-plans-for-eu-army-2016-6?r=US&IR=T&IR=T
Brexit
Militarythink-tanksaysBrexitwillcausedefenceshock
http://next.ft.com/content/149dfe72-28d1-11e6-8ba3-cdd781d02d89

WouldaNewSDSRBeNeededAfteraBrexitVote?
http://rusi.org/publication/briefing-papers/SDSR-Brexit
Sanctions
U.S.SendsEnvoyToUrgeEuropeToMaintainRussianSanctions
http://www.rferl.mobi/a/us-treasury-sends-szubin-europe-urge-maintain-russian-sanctions-iran-nuclear-deal-
implementation/27778918.html
USPolicy
NATO'stopsoldiersaysTrumpcommentsplayintohandsofPutin
http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-asia-security-nato-idUKKCN0YP1SC
MH17
MH17crash:ProsecutorsincreasepressureonRussia
MH17investigationat'advancedstage'
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-mh-idUSKCN0YP1YQ
Russianpolity
UnitedRussia,dividedPutin
Thepresidenthascrushedtheopposition,buttechnocratsandsecurityhawksarefightingforhisfavour
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21699944-president-has-crushed-opposition-technocrats-and-security-hawks-are-
fighting-his
Bulgaria
BulgariarequestssurplusF-16sfromPortugal
http://www.janes.com/article/60955/bulgaria-requests-surplus-f-16s-from-portugal
Media
Ukrainianpresidentcondemnsleakofjournalistdata
http://www.businessinsider.com/ap-ukrainian-president-condemns-leak-of-journalist-data-2016-6?r=US&IR=T&IR=T
Humanrights
TheUnitedNationsonFridayaccusedboththeUkrainianauthoritiesandpro-Russianrebelsoftorturingfightersandtheir
sympathiserscapturedintheseparatisteast.
http://au.news.yahoo.com/world/a/31761835/un-accuses-ukrainian-authorities-and-rebels-of-torture/
SBUrefutesUNallegationsoftortureofdetaineesfrom"LPR-DPR"
http://www.unian.info/politics/1365472-sbu-refutes-un-allegations-of-torture-of-detainees-from-lpr-dpr.html
Hybridwar
EuropeStillinDenialasRussiaUshersintheAgeofHybridHostilities
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/europe-still-in-denial-as-russia-ushers-in-the-age-of-hybrid-hostilities
PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAllies,FDDStudyFinds
study/#sthash.NSJyXKXn.dpuf
[SentbyStefanForss]
Caucuses
AngeredAtArmsSalesToAzerbaijan,ArmeniansPushAwayFromRussiasEmbrace
RussianforcesinSyria
RussianTu-142appearsoverSyriaforthefirsttime(thedayaftertheUSNlaunchedfirststrikesfromtheMedSea)
http://theaviationist.com/2016/06/05/russian-tu-142-appears-over-syria-for-the-first-time-the-day-after-the-usn-launched-first-
strikes-from-the-med-sea/
Syriacivilwar:ThemessagefromMoscow
FactsonthegroundshowMoscowmaybejustifyingandpavingthewayforalarge-scaleoffensiveagainstal-Nusra.
http://www.aljazeera.com/blogs/middleeast/2016/06/syria-civil-war-message-moscow-nusra-160604163154005.html
____________________________
NicholasMarsh
ResearchFellow
HausmansGate7
0186Oslo
Norway
email:nic@prio.no
web:www.nisat.org
twitter:@NisatPrio
Subject:Clinton'sSpeechShowsThatOnlySandersIsFitforthePresidency[ED:AgreewithPeter..Checkthisout
ol'JeffreySachs,thearchitectof'oligarchic'Russia,isgivingadviceagain..OHBOY!!!]
Thisfromthe"genius"whogavebirthtoRussia'sOligarchs.LookslikethelatterdayDr.Frankensteincontinuestoworkforthe
monstershecreated.Well,nodoubt,thepayisbetternow.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jeffrey-sachs/-clintons-speech-shows-th_b_10306592.html
Senttime: 06/05/201611:14:20AM
FW:[+][B/B---RESENDINGTOTHISBCC/SEC]Fwd:[SUNAFTERNOONREAD/THREE"MUSTNOTE"ITEMS][WD]Fwd:podcastRussia2030.FromPAULRG:
Subject:
ArePutin'strollsplayingmindgameswithHillary'semails?[MOJO]SAVCHENKOISHOMEBUTPRESSUREONRUSSIASHOULD
Subject:[+][B/B---RESENDINGTOTHISBCC/SEC]Fwd:[SUNAFTERNOONREAD/THREE"MUSTNOTE"ITEMS][WD]Fwd:podcastRussia2030.FromPAULR
G:ArePutin'strollsplayingmindgameswithHillary'semails?[MOJO]SAVCHENKOISHOMEBUTPRESSUREONRUSSIASHOULD...
Subject:[SUNAFTERNOONREAD/THREE"MUSTNOTE"ITEMS][WD]Fwd:podcastRussia2030.FromPAULRG:ArePutin'strollsplaying
mindgameswithHillary'semails?[MOJO]SAVCHENKOISHOMEBUTPRESSUREONRUSSIASHOULDREMAIN.
From:WalterDerzko<wderzko@pathcom.com>
Date:Sun,Jun5,2016at11:50AM
Subject:podcastRussia2030
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>,walter.derzko@utoronto.ca
http://ukrainereport.tk/index.php/war-conflict-ur-19/1896-podcast-russia-2030.html
Podcast:Russia2030
Published:-Jun04,2016
RussiaPowerVertical
ViewComments

W hatwillRussiaanditsneighborhoodlooklikein2030?HowwillMoscow'srelationswiththeWestplayoutoverthenext14years?Whatdo
currenttrendstellusaboutfuturedevelopments?Andarethesetrendsreversible?
TheseweresomeofthequestionsraisedinawidelydiscussednewreportbyAndrewWilsonandFredrikWesslaufortheEuropeanCouncilon
ForeignRelationstitledRussia2030:AStoryOfGreatPowerDreamsAndSmallVictoriousWars.
From:paulroderickgregory<pgregory@stanford.edu>
Subject:ArePutin'strollsplayingmindgameswithHillary'semails?
To:JohnBatchelor<tippaine@gmail.com>,JoelWeickgenant<jweickgenant@realclearworld.com>,BrianBonner<bribonner@gmail.com>,BrianMefford
<brian@brianmefford.net>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/06/05/putinsarmyofinternettrollsisinfluencingthehillaryclintonemail
scandal/#5735fd5f3b99
Inwhatlookslikeatrolloperation(thatfooledFoxNewsandMediaMatters)thetrollarmyletitbeknownthattheKremlinhastheClintonemails
(gottenbylegitimatemeans)andthattheCIAhadtofabricatethePanamaPaperstokeeptheKremlniquiet.
From:jm200p<jm200p@mac.com>
Date:Sun,Jun5,2016at8:17AM
Subject:SavchenkoisHomeButPressureonRussiaShouldRemain
To:waz<waz2102@columbia.edu>
http://www.newsweek.com/savchenko-home-pressure-russia-should-remain-russia-ukraine-466128?rx=us
OPINION
SAVCHENKOISHOMEBUTPRESSUREON
RUSSIASHOULDREMAIN
BY IRYNAGERASHCHENKOO N 6 / 5 / 1 6 A T 2 : 0 0 A M
ThereleaseofNadiyaSavchenkotransformedintoasophisticatedspecialoperation.Asmallteamofhigh-rankingofficialshad
beenpreparingitforseveralmonths,tryingtopreventanyleaksthatcouldinstantlyunderminethewholeenterprise.
PresidentPoroshenkosucceededinunitingeffortsofinternationalleaderstoapplypressureonRussiawithademandtofreeSavchenko.
Savchenkosreleasewouldbeinconceivablewithoutsupportofthewholeinternationalcommunity.Ontheotherhand,RussianGRU
officers,whowerecapturedinUkraineinMay2015werecompletelyabandonedbytheirhomeland.Throughoutpoliticalnegotiationsin
Minsk,Ukrainesdelegationrepeatedlyraisedthequestionastowhatthesearmedpeopleweredoingonourterritorysilenceandhidden
gazesweretheonlyreply.
TryNewsweekforonly$1.25perweek
ByreleasingSavchenko,Russianowtriestolifteconomicsanctionsintroducedbytheworld.TodaywehearRussianofficialstalkof
tremendousprogressanddiscussionsofreturnoftheRussiandelegationtotheParliamentaryAssemblyoftheCouncilofEurope(PACE).
Clearly,theKremlinwasgoingtomakesomereconciliatorystepstosilencediscussionsaboutextensionofeconomicsanctionsagainst
RussiainJune,switchingthemtothetalksofso-calledrapprochement.
Butletsseewhatisreallyhappening.MilitaryactionsintensifiedonthefrontlineineasternUkraine.FourteenUkrainiansoldierswere
killedinactionthisMayalone,whileRussia-backedmilitantsresumedfiringfromGradmultiplerocketlaunchersoncivilians.
UkrainianpilotandMPNadiyaSavchenkoaddressesdeputiesduringherfirstsessionintheparliamentafterbeingfreedfrom
confinementinRussiaasapartofaprisonerswapinKiev,Ukraine,May31.G L E B G A R A N I C H / R E U T E R S
Granted,itmaybedifficulttounderstandUkraine,ifyouarenotlosingsomeonedeartoyoueveryday,orwhenyourchildrenandhousehold
aresafe.Unfortunately,thisisnotthecasefordozensofcitiesandhundredsofvillagesinUkraineseast.
ItisveryimportantfortheWesttoupholditsownvaluesfundamentalforthewholecivilizedworld.Therulesareclearandsimplerespect
ofhumanrightsandterritorialintegrityofotherpeopleslands.
ThestoryofNadiyaSavchenkoclearlyillustratedtheworldsattitudetowardthehumanitarianfactoroftheMinskaccords.Everyone
remembersthesecurityandpoliticalnegotiationsneededtoachieveapeaceprocess.However,politicalreconciliationisimpossible
withoutsolvinghumanitarianissues.UkraineremainsintheminoritywhenitconsistentlyemphasizesthatRussiaanditsproxyforcesin
easternUkrainedonotadheretothesecriticalissues.
Wecannotforgetabouthumanrights.Shouldwenotinsistonreleasingthe114Ukrainianpoliticalprisonerstreatedasslavesbypro-
Russianmilitants?Shouldwenotbringbackthe11UkrainiancitizensabductedinCrimeaandDonbassandtorturedinRussianprisons?Why
arenthumanitarianmissionsallowedtoinspectthetemporarilyoccupiedterritories?WhyistheInternationalCommitteeoftheRedCross
stillnotallowedtolookforthepeoplewhowentmissing?
Hostagereleasesandsearchesforthosemissingareissuesthatshouldberesolvedassoonaspossible.Ukraineisreadyforbig
compromisestoreachtheresolutiononhumanitarianissuesthereisnoroomforpoliticking.TheKremlinshouldnotbeallowedtoresort
tousingthefateofinjuredandsickpeopleheldcaptiveforoverayeartogetamnestyformilitants.Thisisthepoliticsofthelikesof
SomalipiratesormilitantgroupIslamicState.
IhopetheworldwillhearSavchenkosvoice.Russiawouldprobablyuseherreleasetoargueforliftingeconomicsanctions.However,ifthe
Kremlinsucceeds,thiswouldruinfundamentalEuropeanvaluesanddeteriorateinfluenceofthemajorinternationalorganizationsthat
defenddemocraticvaluesandhumanrights.
RussiahavenotcompliedwithanyPACEresolution.ThefunctioningoftheU.N.SecurityCouncilhasbeensignificantlyundermineddueto
Russiasirresponsibleactions.IfthereleaseofonepersonallowsthewouldtoturnablindeyetothedeathsofotherUkrainiancitizens,to
violationofterritorialintegrityofthestateandtoaforeigninvasionthenweshouldntbesurprisedtoseeRussiaslittlegreenmen
breakintosomeoneelsesdoorprettysoon.
IdonotknowhowNadiyaSavchenkosreleasewillaffecttheworld,butIamcertainhowitwillinfluenceUkraine.Wewilluniteandfight
forourterritoryandEuropeanvalues.Wewanttofindapoliticalanddiplomaticsolutiontothisconflictwithoutresortingtothepathofwar
anddestruction.
Weexpectthatthewholecivilizedworldislookingforarealsolutiontotheconflictinsteadofcoveringthewholeconflictwithafigleaf.
Sinceundereverysuchleaftherearethousandsofhumanlivesthatwecanstillsave.
IrynaGerashchenkoisfirstvice-speakerofUkrainesparliamentandenvoyofthepresidentofUkraineforapeacefulsettlementofthe
conflictintheDonetskandLuhanskregions.
Senttime: 06/05/201611:11:43AM
Subject: FW:ArePutin'strollsplayingmindgameswithHillary'semails?
From:paulroderickgregory[mailto:pgregory@stanford.edu]
To:JohnBatchelorJoelWeickgenantBrianBonnerBrianMeffordWalterZaryckyj
Subject:ArePutin'strollsplayingmindgameswithHillary'semails?
http://www.forbes.com/sites/paulroderickgregory/2016/06/05/putinsarmyofinternettrollsisinfluencingthehillary
clintonemailscandal/#5735fd5f3b99
Inwhatlookslikeatrolloperation(thatfooledFoxNewsandMediaMatters)thetrollarmyletitbeknownthatthe
KremlinhastheClintonemails(gottenbylegitimatemeans)andthattheCIAhadtofabricatethePanamaPapersto
keeptheKremlniquiet.
Senttime: 06/03/201602:51:02PM
To: JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Subject: Re:SheAlwaysWasaJerk...........
IwillneverforgethertestifyingbeforeCongressonNATOexpansion,arguingitwasOKbecausepollsshowedtheRussian
populationwasn'topposed.Somecriterion.
SentfrommyiPad
OnJun3,2016,at4:22PM,JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>wrote:
wasinwayoverherhead,butdidn't(doesn't)realizeit.
OnFriday,June3,20163:20PM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/madeleine-albright-clinton-email-223861
Albright:'Nobodyisgoingtodie'from
Clintonemails
Albright:'Nobodyisgoingtodie'from
Clintonemails
HillaryClinton'suseofaprivateemailserverwhileattheStateDepartmentwillnotkill
anyone,formerSecretaryofStateMadeleineAlbrightsaidFriday.ButDonaldTrump's
rhetoricmight,theClintonallysuggested.
"Shehassaidshemadeamistake,andnobodyisgoingtodieasaresultofanythingthat
happenedonemails,"AlbrighttoldCNN'sChrisCuomoon"NewDay,"afterthehost
broachedthemultifacetedcriticismandconcernsaboutClinton'sforeignpolicyfrom
opponentsandsupportersalike.
CuomoreferencedClinton'suseofprivateemails,alongwiththeinfamousfailedresetwith
RussiaandherroleinorchestratingthenucleardealwithahostileIranianregime,aday
afterAlbright'sDemocraticsuccessoratFoggyBottomdeliveredablisteringspeech
rippingTrump'sforeignpolicycredentials.
"IamconcernedaboutsomeofthestatementsthatDonaldTrumphasmadethatare
dangerous,"Albrightsaid."OntheissueofRussia,thefactthatDonaldTrumpadmires
PutinisoneofthereasonsthatIcan'tagreewithawordhesaysbecausetheresettakes
twotoreset."
AlbrightblamedMoscowforthereset'sfailure,remarkingthatVladimirPutin"istheone
thathasmadeveryaggressivemovesagainstUkraineandpushedEuropearound,which
iswhyweneedastrongNATO."
"AndtheIrannucleardealhasmadeitclearthatIranwillnothaveanuclearweapon.Thatis
positive.SoIthinkpeoplethesearevery,verydifficultandcomplicatedissuesthatneed
tobeexplained.AndIthoughtSecretaryClinton'sspeechwentalongwaytolayingout
whatwasarationalnationalsecuritypolicy,"shesaid."AndIwouldhopeandIwouldbeso
happytoparticipateinthis,ishavingreallyanin-depthdiscussionoftheissuesthatareout
theresothatAmericawillbesafe.Andthat'swhatweneedtotalkaboutinsteadofname-
calling,frankly."
Authors:
ShowComments
From: JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>
Senttime: 06/03/201601:22:13PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:SheAlwaysWasaJerk...........
wasinwayoverherhead,butdidn't(doesn't)realizeit.
OnFriday,June3,20163:20PM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/madeleine-albright-clinton-email-223861
Albright:'Nobodyisgoingtodie'fromClinton
emails
Albright:'Nobodyisgoingtodie'fromClinton
emails
HillaryClinton'suseofaprivateemailserverwhileattheStateDepartmentwillnotkillanyone,former
SecretaryofStateMadeleineAlbrightsaidFriday.ButDonaldTrump'srhetoricmight,theClintonally
suggested.
"Shehassaidshemadeamistake,andnobodyisgoingtodieasaresultofanythingthathappened
onemails,"AlbrighttoldCNN'sChrisCuomoon"NewDay,"afterthehostbroachedthemultifaceted
criticismandconcernsaboutClinton'sforeignpolicyfromopponentsandsupportersalike.
CuomoreferencedClinton'suseofprivateemails,alongwiththeinfamousfailedresetwithRussiaand
herroleinorchestratingthenucleardealwithahostileIranianregime,adayafterAlbright's
DemocraticsuccessoratFoggyBottomdeliveredablisteringspeechrippingTrump'sforeignpolicy
credentials.
"IamconcernedaboutsomeofthestatementsthatDonaldTrumphasmadethataredangerous,"
Albrightsaid."OntheissueofRussia,thefactthatDonaldTrumpadmiresPutinisoneofthereasons
thatIcan'tagreewithawordhesaysbecausetheresettakestwotoreset."
AlbrightblamedMoscowforthereset'sfailure,remarkingthatVladimirPutin"istheonethathasmade
veryaggressivemovesagainstUkraineandpushedEuropearound,whichiswhyweneedastrong
NATO."
"AndtheIrannucleardealhasmadeitclearthatIranwillnothaveanuclearweapon.Thatispositive.
SoIthinkpeoplethesearevery,verydifficultandcomplicatedissuesthatneedtobeexplained.AndI
thoughtSecretaryClinton'sspeechwentalongwaytolayingoutwhatwasarationalnationalsecurity
policy,"shesaid."AndIwouldhopeandIwouldbesohappytoparticipateinthis,ishavingreallyanin-
depthdiscussionoftheissuesthatareouttheresothatAmericawillbesafe.Andthat'swhatweneed
totalkaboutinsteadofname-calling,frankly."
Authors:
ShowComments
Senttime: 06/03/201608:58:11AM
Subject: FW:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27777016.html
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,June03,20168:58AM
Subject:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27777016.html
And:18pageinterviewwithformerRussianpresidentialeconomicsadvisorAndreiILLARIONOV,
PutinismorSanctions,http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27760793.html
And:NATOstopsoldier[GeneralPETRPAVEL]saysTRUMPcommentsplayintohandsofPUTIN,
reuters.com,6/35pagearticle
And:PutinappearstobecarryingoutaPURGEofanumberofsilovikiandtopofficialsusing
CORRUPTIONasabludgeon:PESKOVrevealedthethemesdiscussedatPutinsSecurityCouncil
meeting,http://slon.ru/posts/68943
And:PutinsentintoretirementseveralsilovikiappointedunderMedvedev,rbc.ru,6/2
And:TheheadoftheFSBsDepartmentK(Serviceofeconomicsecurity),ViktorVORONIN,hasbeen
retired:http://echo.msk.ru/news/1777408echo.html
And:Thefatigueofthecloseentourage:TheoldcadresarebeingPURGEDfromtheRussian
Politburo:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73335.html?print=1
And:WhatexplainsthesharpactivizationoftheanticorruptionunitsoftheFSBandMVD?
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73329.html?print=1
And:POLANDtorecruit35,000strongparamilitaryforcetocombatthreatfromRussia,
telegraph.co.uk,6/3
And:PutinhasansweredCLINTON:intheKremlintheydonotp0lantocelebrateanyones[i.e.,
TRUMPs]victoryintheUSelections,
http://www.newsru.com/russia/03jun2016/peskov_print.html
Senttime: 06/03/201610:24:54AM
FW:[BouncedBack.ResendingtoThisBccSec]Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOFREADING][JDDD]
Subject: Fwd:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[ODDD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.[PB
SPD]PutinU...
Subject:Fwd:[BouncedBack.ResendingtoThisBccSec]Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOFREADING][JD
DD]Fwd:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[ODDD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.
[PBSPD]PutinU...
Date:Fri,Jun3,2016at1:17PM
Subject:[BouncedBack.ResendingtoThisBccSec]Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOF
READING][JDDD]Fwd:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[OD
DD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.[PBSPD]PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAlliesPolandplans
paramilitaryforceof35,000tocounterRussia[ABNewsUpdate]ED:ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStories
No.34.plusseveralmoreitem]
To:
Subject:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOFREADING][JDDD]Fwd:"Chafingat
SANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[ODDD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.
[PBSPD]PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAlliesPolandplansparamilitaryforceof35,000tocounter
Russia[ABNewsUpdate]ED:ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.34.plusseveralmoreitem]
Date:Fri,Jun3,2016at11:57AM
Subject:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEU
UNITY,"http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27777016.html
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEU
And:18-pageinterviewwithformerRussianpresidentialeconomicsadvisorAndreiILLARIONOV,
And:NATOstopsoldier[GeneralPETRPAVEL]saysTRUMPcommentsplayintohandsof
PUTIN,reuters.com,6/35-pagearticle
And:TheheadoftheFSBsDepartmentK(Serviceofeconomicsecurity),ViktorVORONIN,has
beenretired:http://echo.msk.ru/news/1777408-echo.html
And:Whatexplainsthesharpactivizationoftheanti-corruptionunitsoftheFSBand
MVD?http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73329.html?print=1
And:POLANDtorecruit35,000strongparamilitaryforcetocombatthreatfrom
Russia,telegraph.co.uk,6/3
And:PutinhasansweredCLINTON:intheKremlintheydonotp/lantocelebrateanyones[i.e.,
TRUMPs]victoryintheUSelections,http://www.newsru.com/russia/03jun2016/peskov_print.html
Subject:Ukraine:USOSCE,USEKyiv,NYT(2),Economist,USNews,Politico[ED:THEOSCEMaterialIs
Invaluable][TheEconomistPieceonKharkivisaBitof"StinkyWinky"..possiblyreflectinga'Londongrad'
perspective]
Especiallyimportanttoread,process,disseminate,utilizeintherun-uptotheEUdecisiononRussiasanctions.And
DanBaersRightofReply(item2)totheRussianambassadorisoneforthebooks:
USMissiontotheOSCE
http://osce.usmission.gov/russias-ongoing-violations-ukraine-statement-pc-4-3/
OnRussiasOngoingViolationsinUkraine:StatementtothePC
June2,2016
TheUnitedStatesisdeeplyconcernedaboutthedeterioratingsituationintheconflictzoneineasternUkraine.CombinedRussian-
separatistforceshavesteppeduptheviolence,firedbannedheavyweaponsfromcivilianareas,andhavecontinuedtoobstructthe
workoftheOSCESpecialMonitoringMission,includingthreateningmonitors,shootingdownanSMMUAV,anddisablingSMM
surveillancecameras.Thesituationisparticularlytroublingbecausejustoneweekago,Ukraineproposedadetailed
disengagementplan,which,haditbeenimplemented,wouldhavecontributedtoasignificantde-escalationoftheconflict.Instead,
Russiarefusedtoengageinnegotiationsonde-escalationinaMay25meetingoftheJointCenterforCoordinationandControl,
andcombinedRussian-separatistforcesdramaticallyescalatedthefighting,causingUkrainetosufferitsworstcasualtiessince
August2015.Infact,thefightinghasgrowndeadliereverymonththisyear:oneUkrainiansoldierwaskilledinactioninJanuary,
sixinFebruary,twelveinMarch,fifteeninApril,andtwenty-seveninMay.Thissteadyescalationinviolencemustbereversed.
CombinedRussian-separatistforceshavesimultaneouslyincreasedattackswhilerestrictingtheSMMfromfulfillingitsmandate.
OnMay27,theSMMscamerainShyrokynerecordedmachinegunfirefromseparatistareasbeforeUkrainianforcesreturned
fire.AlsoonMay27,combinedRussian-separatistforcescarriedoutanincursionacrossthecontactlineintogovernment-
controlledAvdiivka,leavingthreecasualtiesingovernment-controlledterritoryasproofofthisaggressiveact.Residentsof
DonetskcitytoldtheSMMthatDPRmembersfiredfromrooftopsbeforewithdrawing,andhadevenaskedtofiremortars
fromtheroofofahouse.SuchtacticsputciviliansindangerbyprovokingUkrainianforcestoreturnfire.Asaresultofsuch
actions,theSMMreportedanincreaseintheshellingofcivilianareasbybothsidesintheconflict.Thenumberofexplosionsin
Donetskaloneincreasedbyalmost75percentoverthepastweekascombinedRussian-separatistforcesresumedfiring
proscribed,destructive152mmartillery,reversingthedeclineinheavyweaponsuseinadeliberateescalation.
Thesurgeinceasefireviolationscorrelates,onceagain,withactsofviolence,intimidationanddenialofaccessagainsttheSMM.
TheSMMmusthavefull,safe,andunfetteredaccessthroughouttheentireconflictarea.WecondemntheincidentonMay27in
whichaseparatistfighterfiredwarningshotsintheairbeforetakingaimwithhisassaultrifleataSMMvehicletoforceaSMM
patroltoturnaround.Wealsocondemnanotherincident,onMay28,inwhichaSMMfootpatrolatthecontactlinecameunder
fire,apparentlyfromforcesingovernment-controlledterritory.WeregretthattheJointCenterforCoordinationandControlhas
failedtoinvestigateanysuchincidents.
Colleagues,inthePermanentCouncil,weheartheRussianFederationcallfor24/7monitoringofhotspots,buttheactionsofthe
combinedRussian-separatistforcesstandinstarkcontrasttothewordsspokenhere.Theseforcesappeartobepreparingthe
battlefieldforfurtheractionwhiletryingtopreventtheSMMfromobservingthesituationandreportingonittotheinternational
community.AsourUkrainiancolleaguesharedwithusafewmomentsago:theSMMreportedintodaysreportanunusualbuild-
upandamassingofheavyweaponsandpersonnelcarriersinDonetskandLuhanskcities,including24tanksinDonetskcityalone.
TheSMMcamerathatcombinedRussian-separatistforcesdisablednearDonetskonMay20remainsinoperabledueto
separatistinterference.OnMay27,combinedRussian-separatistforcesshotdowntheSMMslong-rangeUAVjustafterit
recordedaStrela-10surface-to-airmissileinDPR-controlledterritory.
TheStrela-10surface-to-airmissilethattheSMMsUAVrecorded,thekindofweaponunavailabletoseparatistswithoutRussian
support,isevenmoreevidenceofdirectRussianinvolvementintheconflict.Similarly,theOrlan-10UAVphotographedflyingover
UkrainianterritorytheweekbeforewouldnotbeavailabletoseparatistforceswithoutRussianhelp.Russiansupplies,equipment,
andpersonnelcontinuetoflowfromRussiaintoUkraine.AttheIzavarynecrossing,alongthepartofUkrainesinternational
borderwithRussiathatUkrainedoesnotcontrol,theSMMobservedalargenumberofpersonnelwhowerewellequipped,
armedandworeadistinctivegreenuniformwithoutinsignia.
TheseindividualsrefusedtospeaktotheSMM.WenotetheSMMstillhasnotreceivedfromtheseparatiststhesecurity
assurancesneededtoallowtheSMMtoopennewforwardpatrolbasesneartheinternationalborderandbeabletoeffectively
monitortheflowoffighters,weaponsandequipmentintoUkraine.
Colleagues,thewayforwardisclear:Stoppingtheviolencemustbethefirstprioritysowecanmakefurtherprogresson
implementingthepoliticalaspectsoftheMinskagreements.TheremustbeimmediateworkondisengagementintheTrilateral
ContactGroupanditssecurityworkinggroupandthepoliticalwilltocarryoutfullyanynewagreements.Russiamustcompel
theseparatistsitbackstoendtheviolenceonthecontactline,whichitdemonstratedtheabilitytodowhentheSeptember1,
2015,ceasefirewentintoeffect.
Asfightingworsens,itisthepeopleofUkrainewhobearthehighestcost.Wenotetherisingnumberofciviliancasualtiesfrom
landminesandunexplodedordnance.Theproblemseemsespeciallyacuteinseparatist-heldareas,wheretheSMMreported
tragicincidentsinwhichchildrenwereinjuredwhileplayingcatchwithananti-tankroundandbysteppingonalandmine.In
contraventionofacommitmentmadetoopentheciviliancrossingpointatZolote,Russia-backedseparatistshaveinsteadplaced
sixnewanti-tankminesthere.
TheexchangeandreleaseofdetaineesonthebasisoftheallforallprincipleintheMinskPackageofMeasuresisamuch-
neededconfidencebuildingmeasure.ItisalsoimperativethattheRussianFederationputanendtoimprisoningUkrainiancitizens
ontrumpedup,politically-motivatedcharges.ThereleaseofNadiyaSavchenkodoesnotrelievetheRussianFederationofits
responsibilitytofreeStanislavKlikh,MykolaKarpyuk,AkhtemCiygoz,OlegSentsov,AleksanderKolchenko,YuriySoloshenko,
OlexandrKostenkoandallotherUkrainiancitizensithaswrongfullyimprisoned.
RussiamustalsoputanendtoitsmistreatmentoftheCrimeanTatarpeopleandallotherswhorefusetorecognizeRussias
attemptedannexationofCrimea.TheoccupationauthoritieshaveharassedandintimidatedCrimeanTataractivists,conducted
intrusiveandunwarrantedsearchesatTatarmosques,schools,anddozensofhomes,andinitiatedadministrativeandcriminal
proceedingsagainstscoresofCrimeanTatarsontrumpedupcharges.WeareconcernedbyreportsthatErwinIbrahimov,aboard
memberoftheCoordinationCounciloftheWorldCongressofCrimeanTatars,hasgonemissinginCrimea.Weremindthe
RussianFederationthateconomicsanctionsagainstitwillcontinueuntilitendsitsoccupation.
SanctionsimposedfortheRussianFederationsaggressionineasternUkrainewillalsoremaininplaceuntilRussiafullyimplements
itscommitmentsintheMinskagreements,includingareal,comprehensive,andsustainedceasefireineasternUkrainefullaccess
fortheOSCEtotheareaaffectedbytheconflictelectionsunderUkrainianlawthatmeetOSCEstandardsandaremonitoredby
theOSCEOfficeforDemocraticInstitutionsandHumanRightsthewithdrawalofforeignforcesandequipmentandthereturnto
Ukraineoffullcontroloveritsinternationalborder.
Thankyou,Mr.Chair.
AsdeliveredbyAmbassadorDanielB.BaertothePermanentCouncil,Vienna
RightofReplytoRussiaonitsOngoingViolationsinUkraine|StatementtothePC
http://osce.usmission.gov/right-reply-russia-ongoing-violations-ukraine-statement-pc/
June2,2016
IjustwantedtorespondtoonepartofthedistinguishedRussiancolleaguesstatementwherehesaidthatseveralcolleagues
aroundthistabledontcareaboutanythinghappeninginUkraineotherthanRussiasfuelingoftheongoingconflict.
Justtoremind,thetopicunderwhichtheUnitedStatesspeaksisTheongoingviolationsofinternationallawanddefianceof
OSCEprinciplesandcommitmentsbytheRussianFederationinUkraine,andsowearespeakingexclusivelyonthattopicunder
thisitem.ButwehavespokenbothinthisforumandfromthepodiuminWashingtonaboutothereventsinUkraineincludingthe
hackofjournalistsinformation,asIreportedafewweeksago,whichwasdiscussedfromthepodiumbyourStateDepartment
spokesperson.AndgiventhatthedistinguishedRussianambassadorhasraisedthisagaintoday,andourallegednon-concernfor
otherthingshappeningUkraine,IdliketotakethisopportunitytocongratulatetheVerkhovnaRadatodayforpassingnotonlythe
constitutionalprovisionsforjudicialreform,butalsotheimplementinglegislation.Obviouslythisisonehuge,positive,forwardstep,
andithastobefollowedupbymoreforwardsteps,notleasttheimplementationoftheactuallegislationandthereform,butIthink
thisisareallyimportantstepforwardinreformingUkrainesjudiciaryindeliveringonthepromiseoftheRevolutionofDignity,and
whatpeoplewereontheMaidandemanding:agovernmentthatrespectsthehumanrightsofitspeople,andismovingtowardsa
trulyindependentjudiciary.
AndIlookforwardtothedaythatsuchreformsaretakeninRussiaaswell.
USEmbassyKyiv
U.S.SignsLoanGuaranteeAgreementForUkraine
FORIMMEDIATERELEASE
Friday,June3,2016
TheUnitedStatesandUkrainesignedtodaya$1billionloanguaranteeagreement,thethird$1billionloanguaranteeprovidedby
theU.S.toUkrainesinceMay2014.ThisguaranteereinforcestheUnitedStatesstrongcommitmenttothepeopleofUkraineby
strengtheningtheGovernmentofUkraineasitcontinuestoinstitutereformsthatreducecorruption,improvethebusinessclimate,
stabilizetheeconomy,andmakethegovernmentmoreresponsivetothepeople.
"The$1billionloanguaranteewillhelpsupporttheGovernmentofUkraineasitcontinuestoimplementitseconomicreform
agenda,"U.S.AmbassadorGeoffreyPyattsaid."TheguaranteesendsastrongsignaloftheUnitedStatescontinuedsupportfor
UkraineasitpursuesreformsthatfulfilltheUkrainianpeople'saspirationsforaprosperousanddemocraticfuture."
TheU.S.loanguaranteeispartofacomprehensiveinternationalfinancialpackage.Whenissued,theloanguaranteewillprovide
theGovernmentofUkrainewithaccesstoaffordablefinancingfrominternationalcapitalmarkets,enablingittoprovidecritical
servicesandprotectthemostvulnerableUkrainiansfromtheimpactofnecessaryeconomicadjustmentsasitimplementskey
reforms.
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenko,UkrainianPrimeMinisterVolodymyrGroysman,UkrainianMinisterofFinanceOleksandr
Danylyuk,AmbassadorPyatt,andActingMissionDirectorfortheU.S.AgencyforInternationalDevelopmentJoelSandefur
participatedinthesigningceremonyinKyiv,Ukraine.
Alsoread:
StatementbyTreasurySecretaryJacobJ.LewonUkraineLoanGuaranteeAgreement,06.03.2016
RemarksbyAmbassadorPyattatSigningCeremonyforLoanGuaranteeforUkraine,06.03.2016(especiallynotelast
para)
TheNewYorktimes
U.S.SignsThird$1BillionLoanGuaranteeAgreementforUkraine
ByREUTERSJUNE3,2016,5:45A.M.E.D.T.
Continuereadingthemainstory
KIEVTheUnitedStatesandUkrainesigneda$1billionloanguaranteeagreementonFriday,thethirdsuchagreement
providedbyWashingtontoKievsinceMay2014.
WashingtonhadpromisedtheaidlastNovemberbutmadeitcontingentonKievcontinuingtopushreforms,whichhadbeen
derailedbymonthsofpoliticalturmoil.
ThesigningcomesadayaftertheUkrainianparliamentpassedlegislationaimedattacklingentrenchedcorruptioninthejudicial
system.
agenda,"U.S.AmbassadorGeoffreyPyattsaidinastatement.
UkraineisstillinnegotiationswiththeInternationalMonetaryFundforthethirdtrancheofabailoutdealworth$1.7billion.
(ReportingbyMatthiasWilliamsEditingbyGarethJones)
TheNewYorkTimes
UkrainianPresidentCondemnsLeakofJournalistData
ByTHEASSOCIATEDPRESSJUNE3,2016,9:54A.M.E.D.T.
KIEV,UkraineUkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkohascondemnedtheleakofthenamesandcontactinformationfor
thousandsofjournalistswhohavereportedfromrebel-controlledeasternUkraine.
TheMaypublicationbyhackersfromagroupcalledMyrotvoretshasraisedconcernsaboutthesafetyofthejournalists,manyof
themfrominternationalmediaorganizations.
SomeUkrainianofficials,includingtheinteriorminister,havewelcomedthepublicationandhaveaccusedthejournalistsof
accessorytoterrorism.
PoroshenkoonFridaytoldreportersthatthepublicationwasa"bigmistake"andcalledforaprobeintotheleak.Poroshenko,
however,calledonjournalistsnottowrite"negativearticles"aboutUkraineandsaidsomeRussianreportersfromthelistsmade
"criminalthings."
AmbassadorstoUkrainefromtheGroupofSevencountriesonThursdayexpressedconcernaboutthepublication.
TheEconomist
Thecitybeta-testingUkrainesrevolution
InRussian-speakingKharkiv,theITindustryisoneofthefewthingsthatisthriving
May27th2016|Europe
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21699545-russian-speaking-kharkiv-it-industry-one-few-things-thriving-city
MYKOLARIDNIYisayoungvideoartistinKharkiv,thesecond-largestcityinUkraine,justfortykilometresfromtheRussian
border.Hislatestvideo,featuringpeacefulstreetscenessettoasoundtrackofriots,recallstheeventsoftwoyearsago,whenthe
citynearlyfelltotheRussian-backedseparatistswhonowcontrolothercitiesinthesouth-east,DonetskandLuhansk.Today,
KharkivremainsalitmustestforwhetherUkrainecansatisfyitsRussian-speakingpeopleandturnitselfintoafunctionalcountry.
OpinionsdifferonhowcloseKharkivcametobecomeanotherbreakawaypeoplesrepublic.Mostresidentsliketothinkthe
violencewasimposedfromoutside,bywhoeverpaidforthethugswhoarrivedinbusesfromovertheRussianbordertoattack
supportersofthepro-EuropeanMaidan.Others,likeMrRydniy,pointoutthatplentyoflocalsbackedRussiatoo.Peopleknow
thattheirneighboursweresupportingtheRussianside,hesays.
Kharkivhasalwaysbeenabitgranderthanitscoal-dustedneighbours.Inthelate1800s,localcoalmagnatesbuiltflamboyant
mansionshere.UndertheSovietUnionthecitybecameacentreforadvancedengineering.Aproudlittlemuseumwithinthe
KharkivAviationInstituteshowsphotographsoftheKhAI-1,thefirstEuropeanpassengerplanewithretractablelandinggear,and
ofValentinaGrizodubeva,apioneeraviatrixwhobrokeworldrecordsinthe1930s,andledanall-womenRedAirForce
squadronduringthewar.
Today,thoughtheInstituteswell-keptcampusbustleswithstudents(aquarterofthemfromoverseas),theattachedaircraft
factorystandssilent.Productionhaltedseveralyearsago.ThelossoftheRussianmarkethasdealtaneardeath-blowtostate-
ownedmonolithsthatwereinneedofmodernisationanyway.TheKharkivTractorPlanthasvirtuallyceasedproduction
Turboatom,amakerofturbinesfornuclearpowerstations,haslostthebulkofitssales,ashasMalyshev,atankmanufacturer.Itis
hardtoseewherenewinvestmentmightcomefrom.
ForeignersarefrightenedoffbyKharkivsproximitytothefrontline,andtheUkrainiannewrichprefertomakequickerbucksin
propertyorcommodities.
Fortheyoungengineersstillpouringoutofthecitysinstitutes,thebignewindustryisinformationtechnology.Morethan200IT
firmsemploysome14,000softwaredevelopers,andboastarosterofbig-nameAmericanandEuropeanclients.Aco-working
spaceforstart-upsinthedilapidatedtowncentreticksalltheboxes:exposedbrickwork,boardgames,amanwithpinkhair
strummingaukulele.PavelNaumenko,formerdirectoroftheaviationplantwhonowproduceselectronicsfordrones,sees
Kharkivasatechnologicalmagnetcityforthewholecountry,promisingUkraineabrightfuture.

Themainroadblockisbadgovernment,andthemayor,GennadyKernes,isaprimeexample.Convictedoffraudintheearly
1990s,MrKernesnowcommandsamurkyfortuneintelevision,telecomsandrealestate.Heenjoysputtingphotosofhimself
cuddlingpuppiesandblondesonsocialmedia,andhehaslocalpoliticssewnup.Thanksinparttosplashyspendingaglittering
newOrthodoxcathedralandalavishchildrensamusementparkhewon66%ofthevoteatlastOctoberslocalelections.His
rivals,oppositionactivistDmitriDrobotsays,weretechnicalcandidatesputuptodividethevote,apartfromonegenuinebut
little-knownopponentwhotookjust12%.
Therealpoliticstakesplacebehindthescenes,andbecomesvisibleonlywhenitleadstoviolence.Duringthecrisistwoyearsago
MrKernesinitiallybackedtheRussiansbeforeswitchingsides.Soonafter,hewasshotwhilejogging.Henowusesawheelchair.
InFebruaryofthisyearoneofhisoldestfriends,reputedlyhismoneymanager,wasshotdeadinalocalcemetery.
Asthroughoutthecountry,reforminitiativesarehamperedbycorruption.StaffattheKharkivHumanRightsProtectionGroup,an
NGOthatprovideslegalaid,saysthatatleasthalfofalljudgesshouldbereplaced,andevenmoreprosecutors.Thedirectorofa
German-fundedprogrammeforrefugees(thereare111,000inthecity)saysherelderlyclientsarepreyeduponbybribe-taking
doctors,andthereislittleshecando:ifsheexposescorruption,maybeourclientwontgettreatmentinthefuture.AWestern-
fundedanti-corruptionwatchdogsaysitisplayingaconstantgameofcatch-up:Weexposeonescheme,andtheythinkupanew,
moreelaborateone.
NobodythinksaKharkivpeoplesrepublicisintheoffing.TheseparatistswarhasdestroyedtheeconomiesofDonetskand
LuganskasMrDrobotsays,Peopleknowtheresnofuturethere.Ontheotherhand,Kharkivhasneverbeenasidealisticas
KievabouttheboldpromisesoftheMaidanrevolution.Itnowseesitsscepticismvindicated.Disillusioned,fullofpotentialbut
heldbackbybadleaders,KharkivisinmanywaysUkraineinminiature.In2014,cheeringcrowdsusedacranetopulldownits
giantcentralLeninstatue,leavingonlyhisbroken-offfeet.Kievsnewrevolutionarieswillneedtodobetteriftheywanttoescape
thesamesortofcontempt.
U.S.NewsandWorldReport
Russia'sGreatPowerChoice
ByWilliamCourtneyandDonaldJensen
June1,2016
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-06-01/russias-occupation-of-eastern-ukraine-is-hurting-its-world-power-status
Moscowseeksacoercivesphereofinfluenceoverneighborsandgreatpowerstatusbeyond,butthesegoalsareincompatible.
OnlybypullingoutofeasternUkraineandreformingitseconomycanRussiagainbroaderacceptanceandreachitspotentialasa
greatpower.Inasimilarvein,lastweekatararemeetingofPresidentVladimirPutinwithhiseconomiccouncil,formerFinance
MinisterAlexeiKudrin,Russianmediareportssay,urgedaneasingofgeopoliticaltensionstohelptheeconomy.
TheKremlinhasfacedasimilarchoicebefore.Inthe1980s,theUSSRwasboggeddowninAfghanistanandisolated.China,Iran
andAmerica,amongothers,boycottedthe1980summerOlympicsinMoscow.TheSovieteconomy,burdenedbywasteandlow
oilprices,wasweakened.Technologylagged.Inthelate1980s,theKremlinfinallysoughtrelief.Sothathecouldfocusonfixing
theSovietsystem,PresidentMikhailGorbacheveasedforeignpressuresbylettinggoofWarsawPactalliesandconcludingarms
controlaccordswiththeWest.
Moscownowfaceslessbutstillsignificantpressure.TheRussian-backedarmedrebellioninDonbashasledtoWesternsanctions
neverbeforeimagined.ManysourcesofinternationalfinancingtoRussia'scapital-starvedeconomyareclosed.Thebuyingpower
offamilies,sappedbyinflationandrubledepreciation,isfalling.Inadditiontosanctions,lowoilpricesandstructuralinefficiencies
arebleedingtheeconomy.Dropsinconstructionandinvestmentdarkenthefuture.Creationofa400,000-strongnationalguard,
reportingdirectlytoPutin,hintsatconcernaboutpopularunrest.
ThequickestwayforRussiatorelievesomeoftheaccumulatingstrainistowithdrawitsforcesfromDonbasandendsupportfor
itsproxies,theso-calledseparatists.UkrainewouldregaincontrolofitsborderwithRussia,withmonitoringfromtheOrganization
forSecurityandCooperationinEurope.AninternationalefforttorebuildeasternUkrainecouldfollow,includingcontributions
fromRussiaandtheWest.AlthoughatpresentaRussianwithdrawalseemsimprobable,itwouldendthemostonerousWestern
sanctionsandbrighteneconomicprospects.
TheFebruary2015MinskaccordsestablishedapartialceasefireinDonbasandprovidedtermstofacilitateapoliticalsettlement.
Fightinghasdeclinedfromitspeak,butMoscowstillwagesalow-levelproxywar.Contrarytotheaccords,Russiarefusesto
allowOSCEmonitorstocontroltheborder.Donbaslackssecurityforfreeandfairelections,andUkraine'sgovernmentmaybe
tooweaktoconductthem.
Economicreformcanalsoeasepressure.Asinthe1980s,declininglivingstandardsaredispiriting.Disgruntlementoverdelayed
anderodingpayisrising.Yetreformstoboostproductivityandcreatenewsourcesofeconomicgrowthareopposedby
entrenchedandstate-connectedinterests,andbymanyRussians.IfMoscowdelaysreform,itwillloseinternationalheft.Russiais
barelyaneconomicgreatpowerlastyearitsGDPwas10thinsizeamongG-20countries.
Despiteitschallenges,Russiaplayssomegreatpowerroles.True,asPresidentBarackObamahaspointedout,Russiadoesnot
"settheagendaaroundanyoftheissuesthatareimportant"inG-20meetings.Nonetheless,Moscow'scooperationintheP5+1
formatthefivepermanentmembersoftheU.N.SecurityCouncilandGermanyhelpedachievethehistoricnucleardealwith
Iran.RussiaandAmericateameduptodestroySyrianchemicalweapons.Russiamayhaveanothergreatpoweropportunityifit
helpstoresolvetheSyriacrisis.
AslongasitoccupiesDonbas,however,Russiacanhopeonlyforlimitedgains.Againthe1980sareillustrative.Evenasthe
USSRandtheWestagreedinGenevatoslashnuclearweaponry,WashingtonwasarmingmujahedeenfightersinAfghanistan.
Moscowlackedwideinternationalsupportuntilitwithdrewfromthere,beganmovingtroopsoutofEasternEuropeandended
communistruleathome.
Agreatpowerhasaportfolioofinterestsandsometimeshastoabandonanunproductiveventure.ItwaspainfulfortheUSSRto
cedeAfghanistanin1989,asitwasforAmericatoleaveVietnamin1975andIraqin2011.Thesedecade-longinvestments
yieldedpoorreturnsandlostpopularsupport.
AnotherriskforRussiaisthatifitdelaysinexitingDonbas,Westernattitudesmayharden.Thismightalreadybehappening.In
February,WashingtonwarnedU.S.investmentbanksnottohelpunderwriteMoscow'sfirstinternationalsovereignbondoffering
sincetheseizureofCrimea.DayslaterBrusselscautionedEuropeaninvestmentbanks.Moscowabandoneditsplan.TheWest
wasworriedthatMoscowwoulddivertsomebondsaleproceedstosanctionedentities.MostWesternbanksinRussiaare
reducingoperationsorleaving.LargeChineseandotherinternationalbanksarealsowary.Theyfearcompromisingtheirlarger
interestsintheWest,orinfringingsanctionsoranti-money-launderinglaws.
MountingfrustrationisalsoreflectedinanewbillbeforetheU.S.Congress.Itwoulddenythepresidenttheauthoritytolift
Donbas-relatedsanctionsunlessthepresident"certified"thatUkrainehadregainedcontroloverCrimea,anunlikelyprospect.

IfRussiadoesdecidetocutitslossesandpulloutofDonbas,arrangementsmaynotbehardtofindonsuchissuesasrefugees,
amnestyformostfightersandaid.SomeinDonbasmightwanttosettlescores,butethnicUkrainiansandRussianstherehavelong
livedtogether.Internationalpeacekeepers,policeandmonitorscouldcontainrisks.
IfRussianaggressioninDonbaspersists,however,workingtogetherconstructivelywillbemoredifficult.AndtheWestwillneither
acceptMoscow'sannexationofCrimeanoroverlookpersecutionofitsTatarminority.
WilliamCourtneyisanadjunctseniorfellowattheRANDCorporationandwasU.S.ambassadortoKazakhstanand
Georgia.DonaldJensenisaseniorfellowattheCenterforTransatlanticRelationsintheSchoolofAdvanced
InternationalStudiesatTheJohnsHopkinsUniversity
Andforadifferentperspectivefromwhatmanyofushavebeenhearingandreading:
Politico
UkrainianinnocentcaughtinPanamaPapersweb
For20years,PetroPoroshenkowasatax-compliantbusinessman.NowUkrainespresidentisunderfireforgraft.
ByAdrianKaratnyckyandAlanRiley
6/3/16,5:30AMCET
Read:http://www.politico.eu/article/panama-papers-defending-ukraine-president-petro-poroshenko-corruption-tax-finance-
evasion/
Subject:PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAllies,FDDStudyFinds|FoundationforDefenseof
Democracies
Idon'tthinkRussia'sgoalistore-estalishtheparitythatemergedafterWWII.Rather,it'stoturnthetablesandestablishRussia
asthesoleworldpowerabletodictatetermsoflifeandexistencetoall.TheonlypotentialchallengewouldbeChina,withwhom
Russiaispresentlyifnotallied,thenatleastcollaboratingonanullaostabasis.Inthefuture,whoknows?MaybePutinwilloffer
theChinesestatusasHonoraryRusskijMirists,muchasHitlerofferJapanstatusasHonoraryArians.ForRussiait'sonlya
questionofwhichoneofthemwilldominatetheWestitbeingunderstoodthatthesunhassetontheWest(US/EU)andtheWest
needstogetusedtoitsnewstatusassecondrategeopoliticalpowers.
study/
Subject:Polandplansparamilitaryforceof35,000tocounterRussia-BBCNews
It'sanimportantstart.EveryoneinPolandshouldhavemilitarytrainingaswellasbepreparedtodealwithtacticalnuclearattacks
byRussia.KaliningradneedstobereturnedtoEurope.PolandandUkraineshouldhaveaworkablemilitaryalliance.
From:alexander<lesykb@hotmail.com>
Subject:UkeNewsUpdate#863[ED:ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.34.plusseveralmoreitem]
To:wazWAZ<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,"drdenny324@gmail.com"<drdenny324@gmail.com>,"nestory@juno.com"
<nestory@juno.com>,PeterChoma<pchoma2@verizon.net>,SAMO<samoklaus@hotmail.com>,"yurijazz@gmail.com"
<yurijazz@gmail.com>,"anh@nyc.rr.com",31MORE
Friday,June3,2016
ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.34
PaulGoble
Staunton,June3--Thefloodofnewsstoriesfromacountryaslarge,diverseandstrangeastheRussianFederationoften
appearstobeisfartoolargeforanyonetokeepupwith.Butthereneedstobeawaytomarkthosewhichcantbediscussedin
detailbutwhicharetooindicativeofbroaderdevelopmentstoignore.
Consequently,WindowsonEurasiapresentsaselectionof13oftheseotherandtypicallyneglectedstoriesattheendof
eachweek.Thisisthe34thsuchcompilation.Itisonlysuggestiveandfarfromcompleteindeed,onceagain,onecouldhaveput
outsuchalistingeveryday--butperhapsoneormoreofthesestorieswillproveofbroaderinterest.
1.JustHowManyPutinsareThere?ThedifferencesinVladimirPutinsappearanceatvariouspublicfunctionsisso
greatthatmanysuspectthatage,exerciseandBotoxcannotexplainthevariation.Oneanalysthastriedtoestimatejust
howmanydoublestheRussianpresidentmayhave.Whatisclearisthateventheoriginalisonetoomany(forum-
msk.org/material/politic/11849107.html).

2.AnotherLetThemEatCakeMoment.AfterDmitryMedvedevsremarkthatthereisnomoneybuthaveanice
day,itdidnotseemlikelythatanyRussianofficialwouldapproachthelevelofMarieAntoinettesinfamouscomment.But
onehas.FacedwiththefactthatRussiansarebeingforcedtocutbackonfood,oneofficialhasobservedthatitisa
Russiancustomtoeatpoorly(slon.ru/posts/68733).
3.MoscowWantsPollsterstoStopFocusingonPovertybutGovernmentStatisticsTelltheTale.TheRussian
governmentwantspollsterstostopaskingaboutpovertybecausetheKremlinisinsistingthatlifeisgettingbetterandmore
joyous(ng.ru/economics/2016-06-01/1_vciom.html).Buttheregimesownstatisticsshowhowwidespreadpovertyisin
Russia:oneinfourlivesinhousingwithsewerconnectionsandoneinthreelivesinhousingwithoutconnectiontonatural
gaslines(gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/population/housing/#).Andthisweekbroughtnewand
damningindicationsofhowthingsaregettingworse:Forthefirsttimeever,Russianspurchasedfewermedicinesinthefirst
quarterofthisyear,evenasreportsspreadabouthospitalsrunningoutofcriticalvaccines
(vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2016/06/01/643167-prodazhi-lekarstvandsobkorr.ru/news/574D492917C6A.html).
4.UralsPoliceTraintoDisperseWorkerProtests.IfinMoscow,thepoliceappearmostconcernedabout
demonstrationsbymiddleclassgroups,intheUrals,thepolicearenowtrainingspecificallytocounteranyworkingclass
revolts(politsovet.ru/51980-policiya-uchitsya-razgonyat-protesty-uralskih-rabochih.html).Atthesametime,theKremlinis
seekingtomakesureofitsgenerals:theyandtheirwivesarebeingpaidmoreandarericherthaneverbefore,accordingto
anRBCstudy(rbc.ru/photoreport/26/05/2016/5745e00b9a79472b77806b0f).
5.ChelyabinskPoliceProposeBurningHarmfulBooksandThoseWhoReadThem.PoliceinChelyabinskhave
calledforburningallharmfulbooksandthosewhoreadthem(ura.ru/news/1052251365),ataskthatmayposea
challengegiventhatRussians,shortofcash,areshiftingfromrealbookstoonlineversions(ng.ru/economics/2016-06-
01/4_income.html).
6.WestsInformationWarStrongerNowthanDuringColdWar,MoscowHistorianSays.ARussianhistoriansays
thattheWestsinformationcampaignagainstRussiaisnowstrongerthanitwasduringtheColdWar,forcingMoscowin
hiswordstocomeupwithwaysofcounteringit(izvestia.ru/news/615828).HisremarkscomeasWashingtonended
RadioLibertysshortwavebroadcastingtoRussia(svoboda.org/content/article/27769319.html).
7.OneWrongPostCanScrewUpYourWholeLife,RussianOfficialSays.ThereasonthatMoscowappearstobe
huntingdownthosewhopostarticlesandpicturesorlikesthattheKremlindoesntlikeisthatgivingpeopleacriminal
recordmeansthatyourentirelifewillbescrewedup(graniru.org/Politics/Russia/FSB/m.251741.html).Givenhowmany
arebeingroundedupbythiscampaign,Moscowmaybecreatingitsownnemesis
(bigstory.ap.stfi.re/article/0274242811894097a9d79f789002aab0/dozens-russia-imprisoned-social-media-likes-reposts?
nc=1464707919310&sf=xdlwvew).
8.RussiaGetsItsOwnRenamingControversies.DecisionsbyofficialstonameabridgeinSt.Petersburgafter
AkhmetKadyrov,aneighborhoodinIrkutskafterRamzannotAkhmet,andastreetinYekaterinburgwherethelasttsar
andhisfamilyweremurderedTsaristhavecreatedaseriousproblemwithrenaminginRussiaandsparkedwidespread
debateoverwhatitmeansandwhethertheRussianauthoritiesplantorenametheNevatheTerek,ariverintheNorth
Caucasus(politsovet.ru/51972-v-ekaterinburge-poyavilas-carskaya-
ulica.html,rufabula.com/news/2016/05/31/kadyriya,rosbalt.ru/piter/2016/05/30/1518905.html,
andecho.msk.ru/programs/personalnovash/1773276-echo/).
9.RISIBlamesUSforSpreadofHIV/AIDSinRussia,SaysCondomsDontWorkAgainstIt.TheRussianInstitute
forStrategicStudieswhichisattachedtotheofficeoftheRussianpresidentandfrequentlygivesVladimirPutinadvicesays
theUSisresponsibleforthespreadofHIV/AIDSinRussiaandthatcondomsdonotprovideprotectionagainstitsspread
(kommersant.ru/doc/3000818andkasparov.ru/material.php?id=574E7E95071A1).
10.MoscowCallsforaRussianInternetbutRussiansNowUseGoogleMorethanYandex.Russianofficialswantto
createaRussianversionofalmosteverythingincludingtheInternetaspartoftheKremlinsimportsubstitutioneffort,but
evenastheyaremakingsuchdemands,RussiansareincreasinglyusingWesternsearchenginesratherthanRussianones.
InApril,forthefirsttime,RussiansusedGooglemorethanYandexwhentheywentonline
(slon.ru/posts/68761andnovayagazeta.ru/economy/73262.html).
11.RussiaMustMakePlanstoDestroyMerchantShippingofNATOCountries,AnalystSays.Aleksandr
Verkhoturov,aRussiananalystwithclosetiestotheRussiangovernment,saysthatRussiandefenseplannershavefocused
toomuchondestroyingNATOaircraftcarriersandshoulddevotemoreattentiontosinkingtheshipsofthemerchant
marineofNATOcountries.ThatwillleaveRussiainastrongerpositionafteranywar,heargues
(apn.ru/publications/article35056.htm).
12.YakutskNewspaperWarnsofDisinformationonMoscowTVStation.AnewspaperintheSakhacapitalhasputa
warningatthetopofitsTVschedulelistingswarningviewersthatNTVisfullofdisinformationandthusshouldbe
approachedcautiously(business-gazeta.ru/article/312157).
13.MoreRevenantsfromtheSovietPast.Increasingly,attacksonWesternauthorsresemblethebourgeoisfalsifier
articlesofSoviettimes,somethingthatmeanstheWesternargumentsaregettingthroughbecausetheyarerepeated,albeit
inadistortedway,tomakeMoscowspoints(nr2.com.ua/blogs/Ksenija_Kirillova/Ukraine-pytayutsya-vnushit-chto-ona-
spyativshaya-nedostrana-120062.html).CollectivefarmsareslatedtoreturninIrkutskoblastwhichhasaKPRF
governor(rbc.ru/business/27/05/2016/574803e29a7947b6a1787f8f?from=main).CossacksareagainguardingRussian
borders(nazaccent.ru/content/20832-stanichniki-pogranichniki.html).Andthewordimperialisevermoreoftenfoundin
thenamesofRussianstores,restaurants,andhotels(holywarium.com/3835/our-empire).
AndsixmorefromcountriesneighboringRussia:
14.TajikGastarbeitersIncreasinglyMarryingRussians.InatrendthatpeopleinTajikistansaytheydonotopposebut
thatsomeRussiannationalistsareupsetby,evermoreTajikgastarbeitersinRussiancitiesaremarryinglocalRussian
women(dw.com/p/1Iwzp).
15.Anti-PutinSlogansNowMoreWidespreadinDonetsthaninUkraine.Accordingtooneobserver,visitorsare
morelikelytoencounteranti-PutinslogansamongthepopulationoftheDNRandLNRthantheyaretoseeorhearthem
inUkraineitself(politobzor.net/show-94346-antiputinskie-lozungi-v-donecke-skoro-budut-populyarnee-chem-na-
ukraine.html).
16.DneprWasAlwaysWhatLocalResidentsCalledDneprpetrovsk.ManyintheUkrainiancitynowknownasDnepr
alwayscalleditthatinformallyandareonlysurprisedthatofficialsshouldwanttomakewhathadbeenakindofidentifier
oflocalresidentsintoanofficialname(nv.ua/opinion/turkova/mesta-zvat-nado-134115.html).
17.ChinaNowInvestingMoreinKazakhstanthaninRussia.MoscowmayhaveturnedtowardBeijingpolitically,but
ChinesebusinessinterestsarenowinvestingfarmoreinKazakhstanthanintheRussianFederation(ng.ru/world/2016-06-
02/7_china.html).

18.DefendersofAnti-RussianGroupEmergeinKazakhstan.AfterAstanabegantorepressanorganizationthatwas
openlypro-Kazakhandanti-Russian,agroupdefendingthatorganizationhasemergedandthusspreadthemessageofthe
group(fergananews.com/news/24825).
19.BalticAmazonsBackThisTimeinUkraine.Somepropagandatropesarejusttoogoodtogiveup.Now,25
yearsafterMoscowblamedthemforallsortsofanti-Sovietandanti-Russianactivities,Russianpropagandistsareagain
talkingaboutBalticamazonsandsuggestingthattheyareactivelyworkingagainstMoscowinUkraine
(rubaltic.ru/article/politika-i-obshchestvo/020616-pribaltika-ukraina/).
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/a-bakers-dozen-of-neglected-russian.html
15:46Jun.2,2016
WarinEastbroughtmodernslaverytoUkraine
WalkFreeFoundation
Ukraineoccupies33rdplaceforthenumberofslaves,accordingtotheresearch
InUkraine,thereareover210,000slaves.ThisisaccordingtotheWalkFreeFoundation,ananti-slavery
organization.ItclaimsUkrainenotonlyoccupies33rdplaceinGlobalSlaveryIndex,butalsogoesfaraheadofthe
neighboringPoland,RomaniaandMoldova.
ThewarineasternUkraine,wheretheleadersoftheself-proclaimedrepublicsarerecruitingchildren,is
amongthemainreasonsofthemodernslaveryinUkraine.Russian-backedseparatistforceswerealso
reportedtomakelocalsworkfortheso-calledpunitiveforces'aspenaltymeasuresevenforminor
violationsoftheregimerulesintheoccupiedterritories.
http://uatoday.tv/society/war-in-east-brought-modern-slavery-to-ukraine-walk-free-foundation-665808.html
Ex-SeparatistLeaderLaunchesPartyAimedatRestoringRussiasEmpire
MOSCOW-IgorGirkin,aformercommanderandself-declareddefenseministerofUkraines
separatistDonetskPeoplesRepublic,hasofficiallyannouncedthecreationofanultra-
nationalist,irredentistpoliticalpartyknownastheRussianNationalMovement.
AformerFSBcolonelandveteranofseveralpost-Sovietwars,Girkinrosetoprominenceinthe
earlystagesofUkraineswarintheeasternDonbassregion.Knownforhisstridentlyanti-
WesternrhetoricandRussianchauvinism,Girkinsaidhismovementwouldjoinwithotherlike-
mindednationalistpoliticalgroupstocreateapartythatwouldreassertMoscowsauthority
overitsformerimperialdominions.
ThemovementhelditsfirstpartycongressinMoscowonMay28whereitunveiledapolitical
platformthataimstorestoreRussiasimperialglory.
"ThelandswhereRussianslive,whicharesoakedinthebloodoftheRussianpeople,have
therighttobecomeapartofRussia.WewillunitetheRussianFederation,Ukraine,Belarus
andotherhistoricRussianlandsintoasingleall-Russiansuperstateandtransformtheentire
territoryoftheformerSovietUnionintoanunconditionalRussiansphereofinfluence,"the
partysmanifestosays.
http://georgiatoday.ge/news/3927/Ex-Separatist-Leader-Launches-Party-Aimed-at-Restoring-Russia%E2%80%99s-Empire

Wednesday,June1,2016
RussiaRemainsaByzantineStateandthatMayDoomIt,GazetaEditorsSay
PaulGoble
Staunton,June1ThephotographsofVladimirPutinsittingonwhatmanyfalselysupposedwasthe
throneofByzantineemperorshavepromptedmanytolaughbutotherstonotethatRussiaeventodayin
manywaysremainsanheiroftheByzantineempire,accordingtotheeditorsofMoscowsGazeta.
Russiansborrowedfromthislostempirenotonlytheirmainreligionbutalsoitspoliticalhabitsinboth
foreignanddomesticpolicy,thepapersays,notingthattheseincludesayingonething,thinkinganotherand
doingathirdtherebymakingtherelationshipofwordsandactionsextremelyproblematic
RussianshaveheldontotheByzantinetraditioneventhoughtheyhavepassedthroughataminimum
fourdifferentstatestheMoscowprincipality,theRussianEmpire,theUSSRandnowpost-SovietRussia.
TheydonotappeartohavereflectedonwhatthatmeansoronthefactthatByzantiumisnotthemost
successfulofmodels.
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/russia-remains-byzantine-state-and-that.html
IsaNewIronCurtainFallingOverRussia?
ByOlaCichowlas
May.26201614:06
ThefalloftheSovietUniongaveRussiansatasteforseveralfreedoms.Some,likefreedomofexpressionandassembly,
arenolongertakenforgranted.Others,likefreedomoftravel,areatleastbythemoniedandmobile.Inrecentyears,
however,authoritieshavemadeitclearthatthisfreedomwasnolongerautomaticforthoseitseesasundesirable.New
proposalstoamendRussia'sexistingterrorismlaws,publishedthismonth,raisetheprospectofsuchbansbeinggiven
evenwiderapplication.
"Everyyear,afewhundredRussiansarechargedforthesimplematterofhavinganopinion,"saysAlexanderVerkhovsky,
thedirectorofMoscow'sSOVACenter,whichmonitorsabusesofanti-extremismlegislation.Verkhovskybelievesthis
particularbillwouldbeaclearlimitationofrights,asitwouldenableauthoritiestopunishanindividualpriortoacourt
decision.
Theno-flylistnowalsoincludesdebtorsthoseavoidingpayingbackloansorwhoarebehindintheirtaxpayments.
Duringacrisis,anestimated4millionpeopleareatriskoffallingintothiscategory.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/is-a-new-iron-curtain-falling-over-russia/570259.html
Thursday,June2,2016
RussiaBecomingaCountrywith15MegalopolisesSurroundedbyEmptyLand,
YasinSays
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/russia-becoming-country-with-15.html
RussiasmainpeaceinstrumentiswarSerhyTaran
Moscowhasnootherinstrumentsofpeacebutfanningarmedconflicts.ForRussia,itisabasicpeacetool,arenownedexpert
SerhyTaransaysJune1.
"EachtimetheprolongationofsanctionsisontheWestsagenda,Russiaresortstodoublepolitics.Ontheonehand,itbeatsits
breastssayingitfavorsapeacefulsettlementandimplementationoftheMinskagreements.Ontheotherhand,Moscowstepsup
militaryactivitiesinDonbas,pushingUkrainetoagreetoitstermstoavoidthelossesofitsservicemen.
Itsakindofagood/badcopgame,withDonbasrebelsplayingtheroleofbadcopsforUkraineandPutinbeingtheviceversa.
:http://zik.ua/en/news/2016/06/01/russias_main_peace_instrument_is_war__serhy_taran_704317
TheUnravelingOfMoscow's'Novorossia'Dream
Aleksandr traveled to the Crimean capital, Simferopol, in February 2014 to work for the Russian Unity party
of Sergei Aksyonov, who went on to become Crimea's de facto governor following Russias annexation of the
Ukrainian region. After the annexation, Aleksandr worked within Aksyonovs administration.
'Little Green Men'
His main duties involved organizing Crimeas local defense volunteers. These hastily assembled and poorly
equipped groups were tasked with standing between the Ukrainian military and the infamous little green
men Russian military forces operating in masks without insignias.
Initially, Aleksandr said, there was no money for arms or equipment. But on March 3, the Russiabacked
insurgents managed to take over local branches of several Ukrainian banks. Money started coming in by the
bagful every day, Aleksandr said.
Soon, he was able to offer volunteers up to 800 rubles (roughly $22.40 at the time) a day, and the number
of recruits skyrocketed. After Russian intelligence forces took over the regional Supreme Soviet on February
28, Ukrainian police forces across Crimea seemingly melted away, and Aleksandrs selfdefense forces
scrambled to replace them.
He remembers the first week of March as particularly tense, as proRussia Crimeans waited nervously for any
sign from Moscow.
Until March 6, it was forbidden to speak about unification with Russia or to hang the Russian flag, he says.
Everyone was waiting for a final decision to be made in Moscow.
Aleksandr believes Moscow was waiting to see how Ukraines military would respond to the unfolding
situation. Only after it became apparent that Kyiv was not ready for a confrontation did the Kremlin give the
final goahead.
Russian flags that had been shipped in by the ton were unfurled, and a referendum on independence was
scheduled. Aleksandrs selfdefense forces began arming themselves with weapons taken from Ukrainian
armories
At the same time, more and more representatives of Moscow were appearing in the offices of the de
facto Crimean government. One day a man showed up at Aleksandrs office and said, Im Sasha, a PR
specialist from Moscow.
http://www.rferl.org/content/unraveling-moscow-novorossia-dream/27772641.html

UsingRussianFacebookIsaBadIdea
UnlessYouThinktheAnnexationof
CrimeaIsReallyGreat
Roughlyhalfofthe233peopleconvictedofhatespeechlastyearinRussiawere
usingthepopularFacebookcloneVKontakte.Buthatespeechisntalwayshate
speech.Sometimesyoucouldgotojailfortwoyearsforsharingamemeabout
toothpasteandCrimeatoyourtwelveonlinefriends,theAPreports.
http://gawker.com/using-russian-facebook-is-a-bad-idea-unless-you-think-t-1779614952
CrimeaforRussians:faceoffproject
JustafterCrimeaaccessiontoRussiatherewerealotoftalksaboutthemultiple-vectorCrimea
development.Russiangovernmentlaiddownplansregardingtourism,medicine,winemaking,
infrastructure,energeticdevelopment.Alotofpromiseswereheardtosolvetheproblemswithwater
supplyandpurification,withtransportconnection,etc.Theplanofestablishingarecreation,
entertainmentandgamblingarea,inotherwords,ofturningtheislandintomodernLasVegas,was
seriouslydiscussed.ThefreeeconomiczonewasconsideredtobecreatedinCrimea.Allinall,itwas
theperiodofcommitmentsanddreamingforCrimeans.Atthattimeoccupationalauthoritiesdrew
brightprospectsforthefuture.
ThoughtwoyearsafterCrimeaoccupationitispossibletosayforsurethatnopromiseswerefulfilled.
StillKremlinsuccessfullycopeswiththeonlyonetaskimplementationoftheprojectofpowerful
multipurposemilitarybasebuildup.Today,alltheresourcesaredirectedtoachievethisgoal.Noone
stillreferstoCrimeapeacefuldevelopmentplans,thesocialcomponentfellintotheshade.Moreover,it
becomesclearthatCrimeamilitarizationeliminatesthepossibilityoftourismandresortbusiness
development.
TheRussianauthoritiesaimatdeployingpowerfulmilitaryalignmentof100120thousandofmilitary
menintotalatthepeninsula.Itisplannedtolocatemorethan40newregiment-orbrigade-sized
formationsandmilitaryunits.CurrentlythenumberofsoldiersinCrimeaisalreadyabout5060
thousand.Toholdthesituationandpreventpossibleprotestactions,Russianauthoritieshave
substantiallyincreasedthenumberofspecialservicestaff.InCrimeatheirnumberisthreetimesas
muchasinotherRussiaregions.Itseasytoassumethatmajorityofmilitarymenexpecttostayhere
afterretirement.
Thus,thelifeofcivilianssuffersseriouschanges.Militarizationplansregardingthepeninsulainvolve
implementationoftheCrimeaforRussiansonlyproject.Itisevidencedbyquitefrankstatementsof
occupationalauthoritiesrepresentatives.Thus,forexample,thespokesmanofCrimeanstatecouncil
VladimirKonstantinovhasexpresslystatedthatoverthefollowing10yearsCrimeawillremaina
migrationproject.TheRussianauthoritiesencourageRussiancivilservantsandformermilitarymento
movetoCrimea.AllthemanagementofenterprisesandorganizationsisalreadyreplacedbyRussian
specialists.Andthenumberofsuchmigrantsatthepeninsulaisabove100thousand.Allofthemare
followedbymembersoftheirfamilieswives,childrenandoftentheirparentsmovingtothepermanent
placeofresidence.Theygetjobsonaprioritybasisaswellasschoolandkindergartensfortheir
children.Indigenouspeopleappeartobedefeatedinrightsaswellasundesirableswerebyhookor
crookforcedoutofCrimea.TheywerereplacedbyRussians(asarule,fromthedepthofthecountry)
usedtoRussianrealities,whowillnotposeaproblemfortheauthoritiesinfuture.
Asitisknown,tomaintainthemilitarybaseoptimalservicemen/civiliansratioshouldbe1:4,i.e.,four
civiliansserveonemilitaryman.Thus,itiseasytocalculatethat480500thousandofciviliansare
requiredtoserve120thousandstrongmilitaryalignment.Thepartsofthemaremembersofmilitary
mensfamilies.Eveniftodoublethenumberofcivilians,itwillrequirenomorethan1millionofcivilians
toservethemilitarybaseonpeninsulasterritory.Alltheothersareofnoneed.
http://www.groundreport.com/crimea-russians-face-off-project/
Russiannationalist:AnnexingCrimea,Putin
openedthewayforthedisintegrationofRussia
TheleaderoftheRussiannationalistmovementRussiansDmitryDemushkinfindsahugemistakethe
annexationofCrimeabyRussia.
IthinkthatPutinmadeanepicmistakeandriskyundertaking.RevisingthebordersofEuropeisunlawful,
especiallyforRussia,fortheRussianFederationisthelargestandthemostunoccupiedstateintheworld.
FromBaikaltoKamchatkathereisnopeopleandnothingatall.Andrevisingtheworldandbordersbyright
ofthestrongisaTrojanhorse,whichcouldnotbetouched.Theprecedentofrevisingbordersis
dangerousespeciallyfortheRussianFederation,becausethenotionoftheRussianlandisveryrelative,
hesaidinaninterview.
Accordingtohim,suchaprecedentcouldleadtothelossoftheterritoriesofRussiaitself.Reasonably
discussingwhereandwhoselandhistoricallyis,theKurilIslandsmaybeJapanese,FarEastandSiberia
Chinese,KareliaisFinnishandKaliningradGerman,etc.Putinmadeaverydangerousprecedent,andit
isnotintheinterestsoftheRussiansfortomorrowtheChinesecanentertheirgreenmeninSiberiaand
holdareferendumthere.Itwasabigmistaketogiveupontheinternationallawsopublicly.Ibelievethat
bigeventsarewaitingforus.Alotofbloodwillbespilled.Wearestandingonthevergeofsomethingbig
andbloody,concludedDemushkin.
http://en.sobytiya.info/russian-nationalist-annexing-crimea-putin-opened-the-way-for-the-disintegration-of-russia.html
Senttime: 06/03/201610:24:54AM
FW:[BouncedBack.ResendingtoThisBccSec]Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOFREADING][JDDD]
Subject: Fwd:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[ODDD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.[PB
SPD]PutinU...
Subject:Fwd:[BouncedBack.ResendingtoThisBccSec]Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOFREADING][JD
DD]Fwd:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[ODDD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.
[PBSPD]PutinU...
Subject:[BouncedBack.ResendingtoThisBccSec]Fwd:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOF
READING][JDDD]Fwd:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[OD
DD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.[PBSPD]PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAlliesPolandplans
paramilitaryforceof35,000tocounterRussia[ABNewsUpdate]ED:ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStories
No.34.plusseveralmoreitem]
To:
Subject:[MEGADIGESTOFDIGESTS..WEEKENDS'WORTHOFREADING][JDDD]Fwd:"Chafingat
SANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEUUNITY,"+10MoreStories[ODDD]OSCEMaterialisInvaluable.
[PBSPD]PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAlliesPolandplansparamilitaryforceof35,000tocounter
Russia[ABNewsUpdate]ED:ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.34.plusseveralmoreitem]
Subject:"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEU
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
"ChafingatSANCTIONS,MoscowpokesandpriesatEU
And:18-pageinterviewwithformerRussianpresidentialeconomicsadvisorAndreiILLARIONOV,
And:NATOstopsoldier[GeneralPETRPAVEL]saysTRUMPcommentsplayintohandsof
PUTIN,reuters.com,6/35-pagearticle
And:TheheadoftheFSBsDepartmentK(Serviceofeconomicsecurity),ViktorVORONIN,has
beenretired:http://echo.msk.ru/news/1777408-echo.html
And:Whatexplainsthesharpactivizationoftheanti-corruptionunitsoftheFSBand
MVD?http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73329.html?print=1
And:POLANDtorecruit35,000strongparamilitaryforcetocombatthreatfrom
Russia,telegraph.co.uk,6/3
And:PutinhasansweredCLINTON:intheKremlintheydonotp/lantocelebrateanyones[i.e.,
TRUMPs]victoryintheUSelections,http://www.newsru.com/russia/03jun2016/peskov_print.html
Subject:Ukraine:USOSCE,USEKyiv,NYT(2),Economist,USNews,Politico[ED:THEOSCEMaterialIs
Invaluable][TheEconomistPieceonKharkivisaBitof"StinkyWinky"..possiblyreflectinga'Londongrad'
perspective]
Especiallyimportanttoread,process,disseminate,utilizeintherun-uptotheEUdecisiononRussiasanctions.And
DanBaersRightofReply(item2)totheRussianambassadorisoneforthebooks:
USMissiontotheOSCE
http://osce.usmission.gov/russias-ongoing-violations-ukraine-statement-pc-4-3/
OnRussiasOngoingViolationsinUkraine:StatementtothePC
June2,2016
TheUnitedStatesisdeeplyconcernedaboutthedeterioratingsituationintheconflictzoneineasternUkraine.CombinedRussian-
separatistforceshavesteppeduptheviolence,firedbannedheavyweaponsfromcivilianareas,andhavecontinuedtoobstructthe
workoftheOSCESpecialMonitoringMission,includingthreateningmonitors,shootingdownanSMMUAV,anddisablingSMM
surveillancecameras.Thesituationisparticularlytroublingbecausejustoneweekago,Ukraineproposedadetailed
disengagementplan,which,haditbeenimplemented,wouldhavecontributedtoasignificantde-escalationoftheconflict.Instead,
Russiarefusedtoengageinnegotiationsonde-escalationinaMay25meetingoftheJointCenterforCoordinationandControl,
andcombinedRussian-separatistforcesdramaticallyescalatedthefighting,causingUkrainetosufferitsworstcasualtiessince
August2015.Infact,thefightinghasgrowndeadliereverymonththisyear:oneUkrainiansoldierwaskilledinactioninJanuary,
sixinFebruary,twelveinMarch,fifteeninApril,andtwenty-seveninMay.Thissteadyescalationinviolencemustbereversed.
CombinedRussian-separatistforceshavesimultaneouslyincreasedattackswhilerestrictingtheSMMfromfulfillingitsmandate.
OnMay27,theSMMscamerainShyrokynerecordedmachinegunfirefromseparatistareasbeforeUkrainianforcesreturned
fire.AlsoonMay27,combinedRussian-separatistforcescarriedoutanincursionacrossthecontactlineintogovernment-
controlledAvdiivka,leavingthreecasualtiesingovernment-controlledterritoryasproofofthisaggressiveact.Residentsof
DonetskcitytoldtheSMMthatDPRmembersfiredfromrooftopsbeforewithdrawing,andhadevenaskedtofiremortars
fromtheroofofahouse.SuchtacticsputciviliansindangerbyprovokingUkrainianforcestoreturnfire.Asaresultofsuch
actions,theSMMreportedanincreaseintheshellingofcivilianareasbybothsidesintheconflict.Thenumberofexplosionsin
Donetskaloneincreasedbyalmost75percentoverthepastweekascombinedRussian-separatistforcesresumedfiring
proscribed,destructive152mmartillery,reversingthedeclineinheavyweaponsuseinadeliberateescalation.
Thesurgeinceasefireviolationscorrelates,onceagain,withactsofviolence,intimidationanddenialofaccessagainsttheSMM.
TheSMMmusthavefull,safe,andunfetteredaccessthroughouttheentireconflictarea.WecondemntheincidentonMay27in
whichaseparatistfighterfiredwarningshotsintheairbeforetakingaimwithhisassaultrifleataSMMvehicletoforceaSMM
patroltoturnaround.Wealsocondemnanotherincident,onMay28,inwhichaSMMfootpatrolatthecontactlinecameunder
fire,apparentlyfromforcesingovernment-controlledterritory.WeregretthattheJointCenterforCoordinationandControlhas
failedtoinvestigateanysuchincidents.
Colleagues,inthePermanentCouncil,weheartheRussianFederationcallfor24/7monitoringofhotspots,buttheactionsofthe
combinedRussian-separatistforcesstandinstarkcontrasttothewordsspokenhere.Theseforcesappeartobepreparingthe
battlefieldforfurtheractionwhiletryingtopreventtheSMMfromobservingthesituationandreportingonittotheinternational
community.AsourUkrainiancolleaguesharedwithusafewmomentsago:theSMMreportedintodaysreportanunusualbuild-
upandamassingofheavyweaponsandpersonnelcarriersinDonetskandLuhanskcities,including24tanksinDonetskcityalone.
TheSMMcamerathatcombinedRussian-separatistforcesdisablednearDonetskonMay20remainsinoperabledueto
separatistinterference.OnMay27,combinedRussian-separatistforcesshotdowntheSMMslong-rangeUAVjustafterit
recordedaStrela-10surface-to-airmissileinDPR-controlledterritory.
TheStrela-10surface-to-airmissilethattheSMMsUAVrecorded,thekindofweaponunavailabletoseparatistswithoutRussian
support,isevenmoreevidenceofdirectRussianinvolvementintheconflict.Similarly,theOrlan-10UAVphotographedflyingover
UkrainianterritorytheweekbeforewouldnotbeavailabletoseparatistforceswithoutRussianhelp.Russiansupplies,equipment,
andpersonnelcontinuetoflowfromRussiaintoUkraine.AttheIzavarynecrossing,alongthepartofUkrainesinternational
borderwithRussiathatUkrainedoesnotcontrol,theSMMobservedalargenumberofpersonnelwhowerewellequipped,
armedandworeadistinctivegreenuniformwithoutinsignia.
TheseindividualsrefusedtospeaktotheSMM.WenotetheSMMstillhasnotreceivedfromtheseparatiststhesecurity
assurancesneededtoallowtheSMMtoopennewforwardpatrolbasesneartheinternationalborderandbeabletoeffectively
monitortheflowoffighters,weaponsandequipmentintoUkraine.
Colleagues,thewayforwardisclear:Stoppingtheviolencemustbethefirstprioritysowecanmakefurtherprogresson
implementingthepoliticalaspectsoftheMinskagreements.TheremustbeimmediateworkondisengagementintheTrilateral
ContactGroupanditssecurityworkinggroupandthepoliticalwilltocarryoutfullyanynewagreements.Russiamustcompel
theseparatistsitbackstoendtheviolenceonthecontactline,whichitdemonstratedtheabilitytodowhentheSeptember1,
2015,ceasefirewentintoeffect.
Asfightingworsens,itisthepeopleofUkrainewhobearthehighestcost.Wenotetherisingnumberofciviliancasualtiesfrom
landminesandunexplodedordnance.Theproblemseemsespeciallyacuteinseparatist-heldareas,wheretheSMMreported
tragicincidentsinwhichchildrenwereinjuredwhileplayingcatchwithananti-tankroundandbysteppingonalandmine.In
contraventionofacommitmentmadetoopentheciviliancrossingpointatZolote,Russia-backedseparatistshaveinsteadplaced
sixnewanti-tankminesthere.
TheexchangeandreleaseofdetaineesonthebasisoftheallforallprincipleintheMinskPackageofMeasuresisamuch-
neededconfidencebuildingmeasure.ItisalsoimperativethattheRussianFederationputanendtoimprisoningUkrainiancitizens
ontrumpedup,politically-motivatedcharges.ThereleaseofNadiyaSavchenkodoesnotrelievetheRussianFederationofits
responsibilitytofreeStanislavKlikh,MykolaKarpyuk,AkhtemCiygoz,OlegSentsov,AleksanderKolchenko,YuriySoloshenko,
OlexandrKostenkoandallotherUkrainiancitizensithaswrongfullyimprisoned.
RussiamustalsoputanendtoitsmistreatmentoftheCrimeanTatarpeopleandallotherswhorefusetorecognizeRussias
attemptedannexationofCrimea.TheoccupationauthoritieshaveharassedandintimidatedCrimeanTataractivists,conducted
intrusiveandunwarrantedsearchesatTatarmosques,schools,anddozensofhomes,andinitiatedadministrativeandcriminal
proceedingsagainstscoresofCrimeanTatarsontrumpedupcharges.WeareconcernedbyreportsthatErwinIbrahimov,aboard
memberoftheCoordinationCounciloftheWorldCongressofCrimeanTatars,hasgonemissinginCrimea.Weremindthe
RussianFederationthateconomicsanctionsagainstitwillcontinueuntilitendsitsoccupation.
SanctionsimposedfortheRussianFederationsaggressionineasternUkrainewillalsoremaininplaceuntilRussiafullyimplements
itscommitmentsintheMinskagreements,includingareal,comprehensive,andsustainedceasefireineasternUkrainefullaccess
fortheOSCEtotheareaaffectedbytheconflictelectionsunderUkrainianlawthatmeetOSCEstandardsandaremonitoredby
theOSCEOfficeforDemocraticInstitutionsandHumanRightsthewithdrawalofforeignforcesandequipmentandthereturnto
Ukraineoffullcontroloveritsinternationalborder.
Thankyou,Mr.Chair.
RightofReplytoRussiaonitsOngoingViolationsinUkraine|StatementtothePC
http://osce.usmission.gov/right-reply-russia-ongoing-violations-ukraine-statement-pc/
June2,2016
IjustwantedtorespondtoonepartofthedistinguishedRussiancolleaguesstatementwherehesaidthatseveralcolleagues
aroundthistabledontcareaboutanythinghappeninginUkraineotherthanRussiasfuelingoftheongoingconflict.
Justtoremind,thetopicunderwhichtheUnitedStatesspeaksisTheongoingviolationsofinternationallawanddefianceof
OSCEprinciplesandcommitmentsbytheRussianFederationinUkraine,andsowearespeakingexclusivelyonthattopicunder
thisitem.ButwehavespokenbothinthisforumandfromthepodiuminWashingtonaboutothereventsinUkraineincludingthe
hackofjournalistsinformation,asIreportedafewweeksago,whichwasdiscussedfromthepodiumbyourStateDepartment
spokesperson.AndgiventhatthedistinguishedRussianambassadorhasraisedthisagaintoday,andourallegednon-concernfor
otherthingshappeningUkraine,IdliketotakethisopportunitytocongratulatetheVerkhovnaRadatodayforpassingnotonlythe
constitutionalprovisionsforjudicialreform,butalsotheimplementinglegislation.Obviouslythisisonehuge,positive,forwardstep,
andithastobefollowedupbymoreforwardsteps,notleasttheimplementationoftheactuallegislationandthereform,butIthink
thisisareallyimportantstepforwardinreformingUkrainesjudiciaryindeliveringonthepromiseoftheRevolutionofDignity,and
whatpeoplewereontheMaidandemanding:agovernmentthatrespectsthehumanrightsofitspeople,andismovingtowardsa
trulyindependentjudiciary.
AndIlookforwardtothedaythatsuchreformsaretakeninRussiaaswell.
USEmbassyKyiv
U.S.SignsLoanGuaranteeAgreementForUkraine
FORIMMEDIATERELEASE
Friday,June3,2016
TheUnitedStatesandUkrainesignedtodaya$1billionloanguaranteeagreement,thethird$1billionloanguaranteeprovidedby
theU.S.toUkrainesinceMay2014.ThisguaranteereinforcestheUnitedStatesstrongcommitmenttothepeopleofUkraineby
strengtheningtheGovernmentofUkraineasitcontinuestoinstitutereformsthatreducecorruption,improvethebusinessclimate,
stabilizetheeconomy,andmakethegovernmentmoreresponsivetothepeople.
agenda,"U.S.AmbassadorGeoffreyPyattsaid."TheguaranteesendsastrongsignaloftheUnitedStatescontinuedsupportfor
UkraineasitpursuesreformsthatfulfilltheUkrainianpeople'saspirationsforaprosperousanddemocraticfuture."
TheU.S.loanguaranteeispartofacomprehensiveinternationalfinancialpackage.Whenissued,theloanguaranteewillprovide
theGovernmentofUkrainewithaccesstoaffordablefinancingfrominternationalcapitalmarkets,enablingittoprovidecritical
servicesandprotectthemostvulnerableUkrainiansfromtheimpactofnecessaryeconomicadjustmentsasitimplementskey
reforms.
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenko,UkrainianPrimeMinisterVolodymyrGroysman,UkrainianMinisterofFinanceOleksandr
Danylyuk,AmbassadorPyatt,andActingMissionDirectorfortheU.S.AgencyforInternationalDevelopmentJoelSandefur
participatedinthesigningceremonyinKyiv,Ukraine.
Alsoread:
StatementbyTreasurySecretaryJacobJ.LewonUkraineLoanGuaranteeAgreement,06.03.2016
RemarksbyAmbassadorPyattatSigningCeremonyforLoanGuaranteeforUkraine,06.03.2016(especiallynotelast
para)
TheNewYorktimes
U.S.SignsThird$1BillionLoanGuaranteeAgreementforUkraine
ByREUTERSJUNE3,2016,5:45A.M.E.D.T.
KIEVTheUnitedStatesandUkrainesigneda$1billionloanguaranteeagreementonFriday,thethirdsuchagreement
providedbyWashingtontoKievsinceMay2014.
WashingtonhadpromisedtheaidlastNovemberbutmadeitcontingentonKievcontinuingtopushreforms,whichhadbeen
derailedbymonthsofpoliticalturmoil.
ThesigningcomesadayaftertheUkrainianparliamentpassedlegislationaimedattacklingentrenchedcorruptioninthejudicial
system.
agenda,"U.S.AmbassadorGeoffreyPyattsaidinastatement.
UkraineisstillinnegotiationswiththeInternationalMonetaryFundforthethirdtrancheofabailoutdealworth$1.7billion.
(ReportingbyMatthiasWilliamsEditingbyGarethJones)
TheNewYorkTimes
UkrainianPresidentCondemnsLeakofJournalistData
ByTHEASSOCIATEDPRESSJUNE3,2016,9:54A.M.E.D.T.
KIEV,UkraineUkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkohascondemnedtheleakofthenamesandcontactinformationfor
thousandsofjournalistswhohavereportedfromrebel-controlledeasternUkraine.
TheMaypublicationbyhackersfromagroupcalledMyrotvoretshasraisedconcernsaboutthesafetyofthejournalists,manyof
themfrominternationalmediaorganizations.
SomeUkrainianofficials,includingtheinteriorminister,havewelcomedthepublicationandhaveaccusedthejournalistsof
accessorytoterrorism.
PoroshenkoonFridaytoldreportersthatthepublicationwasa"bigmistake"andcalledforaprobeintotheleak.Poroshenko,
however,calledonjournalistsnottowrite"negativearticles"aboutUkraineandsaidsomeRussianreportersfromthelistsmade
"criminalthings."
AmbassadorstoUkrainefromtheGroupofSevencountriesonThursdayexpressedconcernaboutthepublication.
TheEconomist
Thecitybeta-testingUkrainesrevolution
InRussian-speakingKharkiv,theITindustryisoneofthefewthingsthatisthriving
May27th2016|Europe
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21699545-russian-speaking-kharkiv-it-industry-one-few-things-thriving-city
MYKOLARIDNIYisayoungvideoartistinKharkiv,thesecond-largestcityinUkraine,justfortykilometresfromtheRussian
border.Hislatestvideo,featuringpeacefulstreetscenessettoasoundtrackofriots,recallstheeventsoftwoyearsago,whenthe
citynearlyfelltotheRussian-backedseparatistswhonowcontrolothercitiesinthesouth-east,DonetskandLuhansk.Today,
KharkivremainsalitmustestforwhetherUkrainecansatisfyitsRussian-speakingpeopleandturnitselfintoafunctionalcountry.
OpinionsdifferonhowcloseKharkivcametobecomeanotherbreakawaypeoplesrepublic.Mostresidentsliketothinkthe
violencewasimposedfromoutside,bywhoeverpaidforthethugswhoarrivedinbusesfromovertheRussianbordertoattack
supportersofthepro-EuropeanMaidan.Others,likeMrRydniy,pointoutthatplentyoflocalsbackedRussiatoo.Peopleknow
thattheirneighboursweresupportingtheRussianside,hesays.
Kharkivhasalwaysbeenabitgranderthanitscoal-dustedneighbours.Inthelate1800s,localcoalmagnatesbuiltflamboyant
mansionshere.UndertheSovietUnionthecitybecameacentreforadvancedengineering.Aproudlittlemuseumwithinthe
KharkivAviationInstituteshowsphotographsoftheKhAI-1,thefirstEuropeanpassengerplanewithretractablelandinggear,and
ofValentinaGrizodubeva,apioneeraviatrixwhobrokeworldrecordsinthe1930s,andledanall-womenRedAirForce
squadronduringthewar.
Today,thoughtheInstituteswell-keptcampusbustleswithstudents(aquarterofthemfromoverseas),theattachedaircraft
factorystandssilent.Productionhaltedseveralyearsago.ThelossoftheRussianmarkethasdealtaneardeath-blowtostate-
ownedmonolithsthatwereinneedofmodernisationanyway.TheKharkivTractorPlanthasvirtuallyceasedproduction
Turboatom,amakerofturbinesfornuclearpowerstations,haslostthebulkofitssales,ashasMalyshev,atankmanufacturer.Itis
hardtoseewherenewinvestmentmightcomefrom.
ForeignersarefrightenedoffbyKharkivsproximitytothefrontline,andtheUkrainiannewrichprefertomakequickerbucksin
propertyorcommodities.
Fortheyoungengineersstillpouringoutofthecitysinstitutes,thebignewindustryisinformationtechnology.Morethan200IT
firmsemploysome14,000softwaredevelopers,andboastarosterofbig-nameAmericanandEuropeanclients.Aco-working
spaceforstart-upsinthedilapidatedtowncentreticksalltheboxes:exposedbrickwork,boardgames,amanwithpinkhair
strummingaukulele.PavelNaumenko,formerdirectoroftheaviationplantwhonowproduceselectronicsfordrones,sees
Kharkivasatechnologicalmagnetcityforthewholecountry,promisingUkraineabrightfuture.

Themainroadblockisbadgovernment,andthemayor,GennadyKernes,isaprimeexample.Convictedoffraudintheearly
1990s,MrKernesnowcommandsamurkyfortuneintelevision,telecomsandrealestate.Heenjoysputtingphotosofhimself
cuddlingpuppiesandblondesonsocialmedia,andhehaslocalpoliticssewnup.Thanksinparttosplashyspendingaglittering
newOrthodoxcathedralandalavishchildrensamusementparkhewon66%ofthevoteatlastOctoberslocalelections.His
rivals,oppositionactivistDmitriDrobotsays,weretechnicalcandidatesputuptodividethevote,apartfromonegenuinebut
little-knownopponentwhotookjust12%.
Therealpoliticstakesplacebehindthescenes,andbecomesvisibleonlywhenitleadstoviolence.Duringthecrisistwoyearsago
MrKernesinitiallybackedtheRussiansbeforeswitchingsides.Soonafter,hewasshotwhilejogging.Henowusesawheelchair.
InFebruaryofthisyearoneofhisoldestfriends,reputedlyhismoneymanager,wasshotdeadinalocalcemetery.
Asthroughoutthecountry,reforminitiativesarehamperedbycorruption.StaffattheKharkivHumanRightsProtectionGroup,an
NGOthatprovideslegalaid,saysthatatleasthalfofalljudgesshouldbereplaced,andevenmoreprosecutors.Thedirectorofa
German-fundedprogrammeforrefugees(thereare111,000inthecity)saysherelderlyclientsarepreyeduponbybribe-taking
doctors,andthereislittleshecando:ifsheexposescorruption,maybeourclientwontgettreatmentinthefuture.AWestern-
fundedanti-corruptionwatchdogsaysitisplayingaconstantgameofcatch-up:Weexposeonescheme,andtheythinkupanew,
moreelaborateone.
NobodythinksaKharkivpeoplesrepublicisintheoffing.TheseparatistswarhasdestroyedtheeconomiesofDonetskand
LuganskasMrDrobotsays,Peopleknowtheresnofuturethere.Ontheotherhand,Kharkivhasneverbeenasidealisticas
KievabouttheboldpromisesoftheMaidanrevolution.Itnowseesitsscepticismvindicated.Disillusioned,fullofpotentialbut
heldbackbybadleaders,KharkivisinmanywaysUkraineinminiature.In2014,cheeringcrowdsusedacranetopulldownits
giantcentralLeninstatue,leavingonlyhisbroken-offfeet.Kievsnewrevolutionarieswillneedtodobetteriftheywanttoescape
thesamesortofcontempt.
U.S.NewsandWorldReport
Russia'sGreatPowerChoice
ByWilliamCourtneyandDonaldJensen
June1,2016
http://www.usnews.com/opinion/articles/2016-06-01/russias-occupation-of-eastern-ukraine-is-hurting-its-world-power-status
Moscowseeksacoercivesphereofinfluenceoverneighborsandgreatpowerstatusbeyond,butthesegoalsareincompatible.
OnlybypullingoutofeasternUkraineandreformingitseconomycanRussiagainbroaderacceptanceandreachitspotentialasa
greatpower.Inasimilarvein,lastweekatararemeetingofPresidentVladimirPutinwithhiseconomiccouncil,formerFinance
MinisterAlexeiKudrin,Russianmediareportssay,urgedaneasingofgeopoliticaltensionstohelptheeconomy.
TheKremlinhasfacedasimilarchoicebefore.Inthe1980s,theUSSRwasboggeddowninAfghanistanandisolated.China,Iran
andAmerica,amongothers,boycottedthe1980summerOlympicsinMoscow.TheSovieteconomy,burdenedbywasteandlow
oilprices,wasweakened.Technologylagged.Inthelate1980s,theKremlinfinallysoughtrelief.Sothathecouldfocusonfixing
theSovietsystem,PresidentMikhailGorbacheveasedforeignpressuresbylettinggoofWarsawPactalliesandconcludingarms
controlaccordswiththeWest.
Moscownowfaceslessbutstillsignificantpressure.TheRussian-backedarmedrebellioninDonbashasledtoWesternsanctions
neverbeforeimagined.ManysourcesofinternationalfinancingtoRussia'scapital-starvedeconomyareclosed.Thebuyingpower
offamilies,sappedbyinflationandrubledepreciation,isfalling.Inadditiontosanctions,lowoilpricesandstructuralinefficiencies
arebleedingtheeconomy.Dropsinconstructionandinvestmentdarkenthefuture.Creationofa400,000-strongnationalguard,
reportingdirectlytoPutin,hintsatconcernaboutpopularunrest.
ThequickestwayforRussiatorelievesomeoftheaccumulatingstrainistowithdrawitsforcesfromDonbasandendsupportfor
itsproxies,theso-calledseparatists.UkrainewouldregaincontrolofitsborderwithRussia,withmonitoringfromtheOrganization
forSecurityandCooperationinEurope.AninternationalefforttorebuildeasternUkrainecouldfollow,includingcontributions
fromRussiaandtheWest.AlthoughatpresentaRussianwithdrawalseemsimprobable,itwouldendthemostonerousWestern
sanctionsandbrighteneconomicprospects.
TheFebruary2015MinskaccordsestablishedapartialceasefireinDonbasandprovidedtermstofacilitateapoliticalsettlement.
Fightinghasdeclinedfromitspeak,butMoscowstillwagesalow-levelproxywar.Contrarytotheaccords,Russiarefusesto
allowOSCEmonitorstocontroltheborder.Donbaslackssecurityforfreeandfairelections,andUkraine'sgovernmentmaybe
tooweaktoconductthem.
Economicreformcanalsoeasepressure.Asinthe1980s,declininglivingstandardsaredispiriting.Disgruntlementoverdelayed
anderodingpayisrising.Yetreformstoboostproductivityandcreatenewsourcesofeconomicgrowthareopposedby
entrenchedandstate-connectedinterests,andbymanyRussians.IfMoscowdelaysreform,itwillloseinternationalheft.Russiais
barelyaneconomicgreatpowerlastyearitsGDPwas10thinsizeamongG-20countries.
Despiteitschallenges,Russiaplayssomegreatpowerroles.True,asPresidentBarackObamahaspointedout,Russiadoesnot
"settheagendaaroundanyoftheissuesthatareimportant"inG-20meetings.Nonetheless,Moscow'scooperationintheP5+1
formatthefivepermanentmembersoftheU.N.SecurityCouncilandGermanyhelpedachievethehistoricnucleardealwith
Iran.RussiaandAmericateameduptodestroySyrianchemicalweapons.Russiamayhaveanothergreatpoweropportunityifit
helpstoresolvetheSyriacrisis.
AslongasitoccupiesDonbas,however,Russiacanhopeonlyforlimitedgains.Againthe1980sareillustrative.Evenasthe
USSRandtheWestagreedinGenevatoslashnuclearweaponry,WashingtonwasarmingmujahedeenfightersinAfghanistan.
Moscowlackedwideinternationalsupportuntilitwithdrewfromthere,beganmovingtroopsoutofEasternEuropeandended
communistruleathome.
Agreatpowerhasaportfolioofinterestsandsometimeshastoabandonanunproductiveventure.ItwaspainfulfortheUSSRto
cedeAfghanistanin1989,asitwasforAmericatoleaveVietnamin1975andIraqin2011.Thesedecade-longinvestments
yieldedpoorreturnsandlostpopularsupport.
AnotherriskforRussiaisthatifitdelaysinexitingDonbas,Westernattitudesmayharden.Thismightalreadybehappening.In
February,WashingtonwarnedU.S.investmentbanksnottohelpunderwriteMoscow'sfirstinternationalsovereignbondoffering
sincetheseizureofCrimea.DayslaterBrusselscautionedEuropeaninvestmentbanks.Moscowabandoneditsplan.TheWest
wasworriedthatMoscowwoulddivertsomebondsaleproceedstosanctionedentities.MostWesternbanksinRussiaare
reducingoperationsorleaving.LargeChineseandotherinternationalbanksarealsowary.Theyfearcompromisingtheirlarger
interestsintheWest,orinfringingsanctionsoranti-money-launderinglaws.
MountingfrustrationisalsoreflectedinanewbillbeforetheU.S.Congress.Itwoulddenythepresidenttheauthoritytolift
Donbas-relatedsanctionsunlessthepresident"certified"thatUkrainehadregainedcontroloverCrimea,anunlikelyprospect.

IfRussiadoesdecidetocutitslossesandpulloutofDonbas,arrangementsmaynotbehardtofindonsuchissuesasrefugees,
amnestyformostfightersandaid.SomeinDonbasmightwanttosettlescores,butethnicUkrainiansandRussianstherehavelong
livedtogether.Internationalpeacekeepers,policeandmonitorscouldcontainrisks.
IfRussianaggressioninDonbaspersists,however,workingtogetherconstructivelywillbemoredifficult.AndtheWestwillneither
acceptMoscow'sannexationofCrimeanoroverlookpersecutionofitsTatarminority.
WilliamCourtneyisanadjunctseniorfellowattheRANDCorporationandwasU.S.ambassadortoKazakhstanand
Georgia.DonaldJensenisaseniorfellowattheCenterforTransatlanticRelationsintheSchoolofAdvanced
InternationalStudiesatTheJohnsHopkinsUniversity
Andforadifferentperspectivefromwhatmanyofushavebeenhearingandreading:
Politico
UkrainianinnocentcaughtinPanamaPapersweb
For20years,PetroPoroshenkowasatax-compliantbusinessman.NowUkrainespresidentisunderfireforgraft.
ByAdrianKaratnyckyandAlanRiley
6/3/16,5:30AMCET
Read:http://www.politico.eu/article/panama-papers-defending-ukraine-president-petro-poroshenko-corruption-tax-finance-
evasion/
Subject:PutinUsingHybridWarfaretoChallengeUnitedStatesandAllies,FDDStudyFinds|FoundationforDefenseof
Democracies
Idon'tthinkRussia'sgoalistore-estalishtheparitythatemergedafterWWII.Rather,it'stoturnthetablesandestablishRussia
asthesoleworldpowerabletodictatetermsoflifeandexistencetoall.TheonlypotentialchallengewouldbeChina,withwhom
Russiaispresentlyifnotallied,thenatleastcollaboratingonanullaostabasis.Inthefuture,whoknows?MaybePutinwilloffer
theChinesestatusasHonoraryRusskijMirists,muchasHitlerofferJapanstatusasHonoraryArians.ForRussiait'sonlya
questionofwhichoneofthemwilldominatetheWestitbeingunderstoodthatthesunhassetontheWest(US/EU)andtheWest
needstogetusedtoitsnewstatusassecondrategeopoliticalpowers.
study/
Subject:Polandplansparamilitaryforceof35,000tocounterRussia-BBCNews
It'sanimportantstart.EveryoneinPolandshouldhavemilitarytrainingaswellasbepreparedtodealwithtacticalnuclearattacks
byRussia.KaliningradneedstobereturnedtoEurope.PolandandUkraineshouldhaveaworkablemilitaryalliance.
From:alexander<lesykb@hotmail.com>
Subject:UkeNewsUpdate#863[ED:ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.34.plusseveralmoreitem]
To:wazWAZ<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,"drdenny324@gmail.com"<drdenny324@gmail.com>,"nestory@juno.com"
<nestory@juno.com>,PeterChoma<pchoma2@verizon.net>,SAMO<samoklaus@hotmail.com>,"yurijazz@gmail.com"
<yurijazz@gmail.com>,"anh@nyc.rr.com",31MORE
Friday,June3,2016
ABakersDozenofNeglectedRussianStoriesNo.34
PaulGoble
Staunton,June3--Thefloodofnewsstoriesfromacountryaslarge,diverseandstrangeastheRussianFederationoften
appearstobeisfartoolargeforanyonetokeepupwith.Butthereneedstobeawaytomarkthosewhichcantbediscussedin
detailbutwhicharetooindicativeofbroaderdevelopmentstoignore.
Consequently,WindowsonEurasiapresentsaselectionof13oftheseotherandtypicallyneglectedstoriesattheendof
eachweek.Thisisthe34thsuchcompilation.Itisonlysuggestiveandfarfromcompleteindeed,onceagain,onecouldhaveput
outsuchalistingeveryday--butperhapsoneormoreofthesestorieswillproveofbroaderinterest.
1.JustHowManyPutinsareThere?ThedifferencesinVladimirPutinsappearanceatvariouspublicfunctionsisso
greatthatmanysuspectthatage,exerciseandBotoxcannotexplainthevariation.Oneanalysthastriedtoestimatejust
howmanydoublestheRussianpresidentmayhave.Whatisclearisthateventheoriginalisonetoomany(forum-
msk.org/material/politic/11849107.html).

2.AnotherLetThemEatCakeMoment.AfterDmitryMedvedevsremarkthatthereisnomoneybuthaveanice
day,itdidnotseemlikelythatanyRussianofficialwouldapproachthelevelofMarieAntoinettesinfamouscomment.But
onehas.FacedwiththefactthatRussiansarebeingforcedtocutbackonfood,oneofficialhasobservedthatitisa
Russiancustomtoeatpoorly(slon.ru/posts/68733).
3.MoscowWantsPollsterstoStopFocusingonPovertybutGovernmentStatisticsTelltheTale.TheRussian
governmentwantspollsterstostopaskingaboutpovertybecausetheKremlinisinsistingthatlifeisgettingbetterandmore
joyous(ng.ru/economics/2016-06-01/1_vciom.html).Buttheregimesownstatisticsshowhowwidespreadpovertyisin
Russia:oneinfourlivesinhousingwithsewerconnectionsandoneinthreelivesinhousingwithoutconnectiontonatural
gaslines(gks.ru/wps/wcm/connect/rosstat_main/rosstat/ru/statistics/population/housing/#).Andthisweekbroughtnewand
damningindicationsofhowthingsaregettingworse:Forthefirsttimeever,Russianspurchasedfewermedicinesinthefirst
quarterofthisyear,evenasreportsspreadabouthospitalsrunningoutofcriticalvaccines
(vedomosti.ru/business/articles/2016/06/01/643167-prodazhi-lekarstvandsobkorr.ru/news/574D492917C6A.html).
4.UralsPoliceTraintoDisperseWorkerProtests.IfinMoscow,thepoliceappearmostconcernedabout
demonstrationsbymiddleclassgroups,intheUrals,thepolicearenowtrainingspecificallytocounteranyworkingclass
revolts(politsovet.ru/51980-policiya-uchitsya-razgonyat-protesty-uralskih-rabochih.html).Atthesametime,theKremlinis
seekingtomakesureofitsgenerals:theyandtheirwivesarebeingpaidmoreandarericherthaneverbefore,accordingto
anRBCstudy(rbc.ru/photoreport/26/05/2016/5745e00b9a79472b77806b0f).
5.ChelyabinskPoliceProposeBurningHarmfulBooksandThoseWhoReadThem.PoliceinChelyabinskhave
calledforburningallharmfulbooksandthosewhoreadthem(ura.ru/news/1052251365),ataskthatmayposea
challengegiventhatRussians,shortofcash,areshiftingfromrealbookstoonlineversions(ng.ru/economics/2016-06-
01/4_income.html).
6.WestsInformationWarStrongerNowthanDuringColdWar,MoscowHistorianSays.ARussianhistoriansays
thattheWestsinformationcampaignagainstRussiaisnowstrongerthanitwasduringtheColdWar,forcingMoscowin
hiswordstocomeupwithwaysofcounteringit(izvestia.ru/news/615828).HisremarkscomeasWashingtonended
RadioLibertysshortwavebroadcastingtoRussia(svoboda.org/content/article/27769319.html).
7.OneWrongPostCanScrewUpYourWholeLife,RussianOfficialSays.ThereasonthatMoscowappearstobe
huntingdownthosewhopostarticlesandpicturesorlikesthattheKremlindoesntlikeisthatgivingpeopleacriminal
recordmeansthatyourentirelifewillbescrewedup(graniru.org/Politics/Russia/FSB/m.251741.html).Givenhowmany
arebeingroundedupbythiscampaign,Moscowmaybecreatingitsownnemesis
(bigstory.ap.stfi.re/article/0274242811894097a9d79f789002aab0/dozens-russia-imprisoned-social-media-likes-reposts?
nc=1464707919310&sf=xdlwvew).
8.RussiaGetsItsOwnRenamingControversies.DecisionsbyofficialstonameabridgeinSt.Petersburgafter
AkhmetKadyrov,aneighborhoodinIrkutskafterRamzannotAkhmet,andastreetinYekaterinburgwherethelasttsar
andhisfamilyweremurderedTsaristhavecreatedaseriousproblemwithrenaminginRussiaandsparkedwidespread
debateoverwhatitmeansandwhethertheRussianauthoritiesplantorenametheNevatheTerek,ariverintheNorth
Caucasus(politsovet.ru/51972-v-ekaterinburge-poyavilas-carskaya-
ulica.html,rufabula.com/news/2016/05/31/kadyriya,rosbalt.ru/piter/2016/05/30/1518905.html,
andecho.msk.ru/programs/personalnovash/1773276-echo/).
9.RISIBlamesUSforSpreadofHIV/AIDSinRussia,SaysCondomsDontWorkAgainstIt.TheRussianInstitute
forStrategicStudieswhichisattachedtotheofficeoftheRussianpresidentandfrequentlygivesVladimirPutinadvicesays
theUSisresponsibleforthespreadofHIV/AIDSinRussiaandthatcondomsdonotprovideprotectionagainstitsspread
(kommersant.ru/doc/3000818andkasparov.ru/material.php?id=574E7E95071A1).
10.MoscowCallsforaRussianInternetbutRussiansNowUseGoogleMorethanYandex.Russianofficialswantto
createaRussianversionofalmosteverythingincludingtheInternetaspartoftheKremlinsimportsubstitutioneffort,but
evenastheyaremakingsuchdemands,RussiansareincreasinglyusingWesternsearchenginesratherthanRussianones.
InApril,forthefirsttime,RussiansusedGooglemorethanYandexwhentheywentonline
(slon.ru/posts/68761andnovayagazeta.ru/economy/73262.html).
11.RussiaMustMakePlanstoDestroyMerchantShippingofNATOCountries,AnalystSays.Aleksandr
Verkhoturov,aRussiananalystwithclosetiestotheRussiangovernment,saysthatRussiandefenseplannershavefocused
toomuchondestroyingNATOaircraftcarriersandshoulddevotemoreattentiontosinkingtheshipsofthemerchant
marineofNATOcountries.ThatwillleaveRussiainastrongerpositionafteranywar,heargues
(apn.ru/publications/article35056.htm).
12.YakutskNewspaperWarnsofDisinformationonMoscowTVStation.AnewspaperintheSakhacapitalhasputa
warningatthetopofitsTVschedulelistingswarningviewersthatNTVisfullofdisinformationandthusshouldbe
approachedcautiously(business-gazeta.ru/article/312157).
13.MoreRevenantsfromtheSovietPast.Increasingly,attacksonWesternauthorsresemblethebourgeoisfalsifier
articlesofSoviettimes,somethingthatmeanstheWesternargumentsaregettingthroughbecausetheyarerepeated,albeit
inadistortedway,tomakeMoscowspoints(nr2.com.ua/blogs/Ksenija_Kirillova/Ukraine-pytayutsya-vnushit-chto-ona-
spyativshaya-nedostrana-120062.html).CollectivefarmsareslatedtoreturninIrkutskoblastwhichhasaKPRF
governor(rbc.ru/business/27/05/2016/574803e29a7947b6a1787f8f?from=main).CossacksareagainguardingRussian
borders(nazaccent.ru/content/20832-stanichniki-pogranichniki.html).Andthewordimperialisevermoreoftenfoundin
thenamesofRussianstores,restaurants,andhotels(holywarium.com/3835/our-empire).
AndsixmorefromcountriesneighboringRussia:
14.TajikGastarbeitersIncreasinglyMarryingRussians.InatrendthatpeopleinTajikistansaytheydonotopposebut
thatsomeRussiannationalistsareupsetby,evermoreTajikgastarbeitersinRussiancitiesaremarryinglocalRussian
women(dw.com/p/1Iwzp).
15.Anti-PutinSlogansNowMoreWidespreadinDonetsthaninUkraine.Accordingtooneobserver,visitorsare
morelikelytoencounteranti-PutinslogansamongthepopulationoftheDNRandLNRthantheyaretoseeorhearthem
inUkraineitself(politobzor.net/show-94346-antiputinskie-lozungi-v-donecke-skoro-budut-populyarnee-chem-na-
ukraine.html).
16.DneprWasAlwaysWhatLocalResidentsCalledDneprpetrovsk.ManyintheUkrainiancitynowknownasDnepr
alwayscalleditthatinformallyandareonlysurprisedthatofficialsshouldwanttomakewhathadbeenakindofidentifier
oflocalresidentsintoanofficialname(nv.ua/opinion/turkova/mesta-zvat-nado-134115.html).
17.ChinaNowInvestingMoreinKazakhstanthaninRussia.MoscowmayhaveturnedtowardBeijingpolitically,but
ChinesebusinessinterestsarenowinvestingfarmoreinKazakhstanthanintheRussianFederation(ng.ru/world/2016-06-
02/7_china.html).

18.DefendersofAnti-RussianGroupEmergeinKazakhstan.AfterAstanabegantorepressanorganizationthatwas
openlypro-Kazakhandanti-Russian,agroupdefendingthatorganizationhasemergedandthusspreadthemessageofthe
group(fergananews.com/news/24825).
19.BalticAmazonsBackThisTimeinUkraine.Somepropagandatropesarejusttoogoodtogiveup.Now,25
yearsafterMoscowblamedthemforallsortsofanti-Sovietandanti-Russianactivities,Russianpropagandistsareagain
talkingaboutBalticamazonsandsuggestingthattheyareactivelyworkingagainstMoscowinUkraine
(rubaltic.ru/article/politika-i-obshchestvo/020616-pribaltika-ukraina/).
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/a-bakers-dozen-of-neglected-russian.html
15:46Jun.2,2016
WarinEastbroughtmodernslaverytoUkraine
WalkFreeFoundation
Ukraineoccupies33rdplaceforthenumberofslaves,accordingtotheresearch
InUkraine,thereareover210,000slaves.ThisisaccordingtotheWalkFreeFoundation,ananti-slavery
organization.ItclaimsUkrainenotonlyoccupies33rdplaceinGlobalSlaveryIndex,butalsogoesfaraheadofthe
neighboringPoland,RomaniaandMoldova.
ThewarineasternUkraine,wheretheleadersoftheself-proclaimedrepublicsarerecruitingchildren,is
amongthemainreasonsofthemodernslaveryinUkraine.Russian-backedseparatistforceswerealso
reportedtomakelocalsworkfortheso-calledpunitiveforces'aspenaltymeasuresevenforminor
violationsoftheregimerulesintheoccupiedterritories.
http://uatoday.tv/society/war-in-east-brought-modern-slavery-to-ukraine-walk-free-foundation-665808.html
Ex-SeparatistLeaderLaunchesPartyAimedatRestoringRussiasEmpire
MOSCOW-IgorGirkin,aformercommanderandself-declareddefenseministerofUkraines
separatistDonetskPeoplesRepublic,hasofficiallyannouncedthecreationofanultra-
nationalist,irredentistpoliticalpartyknownastheRussianNationalMovement.
AformerFSBcolonelandveteranofseveralpost-Sovietwars,Girkinrosetoprominenceinthe
earlystagesofUkraineswarintheeasternDonbassregion.Knownforhisstridentlyanti-
WesternrhetoricandRussianchauvinism,Girkinsaidhismovementwouldjoinwithotherlike-
mindednationalistpoliticalgroupstocreateapartythatwouldreassertMoscowsauthority
overitsformerimperialdominions.
ThemovementhelditsfirstpartycongressinMoscowonMay28whereitunveiledapolitical
platformthataimstorestoreRussiasimperialglory.
"ThelandswhereRussianslive,whicharesoakedinthebloodoftheRussianpeople,have
therighttobecomeapartofRussia.WewillunitetheRussianFederation,Ukraine,Belarus
andotherhistoricRussianlandsintoasingleall-Russiansuperstateandtransformtheentire
territoryoftheformerSovietUnionintoanunconditionalRussiansphereofinfluence,"the
partysmanifestosays.
http://georgiatoday.ge/news/3927/Ex-Separatist-Leader-Launches-Party-Aimed-at-Restoring-Russia%E2%80%99s-Empire

Wednesday,June1,2016
RussiaRemainsaByzantineStateandthatMayDoomIt,GazetaEditorsSay
PaulGoble
Staunton,June1ThephotographsofVladimirPutinsittingonwhatmanyfalselysupposedwasthe
throneofByzantineemperorshavepromptedmanytolaughbutotherstonotethatRussiaeventodayin
manywaysremainsanheiroftheByzantineempire,accordingtotheeditorsofMoscowsGazeta.
Russiansborrowedfromthislostempirenotonlytheirmainreligionbutalsoitspoliticalhabitsinboth
foreignanddomesticpolicy,thepapersays,notingthattheseincludesayingonething,thinkinganotherand
doingathirdtherebymakingtherelationshipofwordsandactionsextremelyproblematic
RussianshaveheldontotheByzantinetraditioneventhoughtheyhavepassedthroughataminimum
fourdifferentstatestheMoscowprincipality,theRussianEmpire,theUSSRandnowpost-SovietRussia.
TheydonotappeartohavereflectedonwhatthatmeansoronthefactthatByzantiumisnotthemost
successfulofmodels.
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/russia-remains-byzantine-state-and-that.html
IsaNewIronCurtainFallingOverRussia?
ByOlaCichowlas
May.26201614:06
ThefalloftheSovietUniongaveRussiansatasteforseveralfreedoms.Some,likefreedomofexpressionandassembly,
arenolongertakenforgranted.Others,likefreedomoftravel,areatleastbythemoniedandmobile.Inrecentyears,
however,authoritieshavemadeitclearthatthisfreedomwasnolongerautomaticforthoseitseesasundesirable.New
proposalstoamendRussia'sexistingterrorismlaws,publishedthismonth,raisetheprospectofsuchbansbeinggiven
evenwiderapplication.
"Everyyear,afewhundredRussiansarechargedforthesimplematterofhavinganopinion,"saysAlexanderVerkhovsky,
thedirectorofMoscow'sSOVACenter,whichmonitorsabusesofanti-extremismlegislation.Verkhovskybelievesthis
particularbillwouldbeaclearlimitationofrights,asitwouldenableauthoritiestopunishanindividualpriortoacourt
decision.
Theno-flylistnowalsoincludesdebtorsthoseavoidingpayingbackloansorwhoarebehindintheirtaxpayments.
Duringacrisis,anestimated4millionpeopleareatriskoffallingintothiscategory.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/is-a-new-iron-curtain-falling-over-russia/570259.html
Thursday,June2,2016
RussiaBecomingaCountrywith15MegalopolisesSurroundedbyEmptyLand,
YasinSays
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/russia-becoming-country-with-15.html
RussiasmainpeaceinstrumentiswarSerhyTaran
Moscowhasnootherinstrumentsofpeacebutfanningarmedconflicts.ForRussia,itisabasicpeacetool,arenownedexpert
SerhyTaransaysJune1.
"EachtimetheprolongationofsanctionsisontheWestsagenda,Russiaresortstodoublepolitics.Ontheonehand,itbeatsits
breastssayingitfavorsapeacefulsettlementandimplementationoftheMinskagreements.Ontheotherhand,Moscowstepsup
militaryactivitiesinDonbas,pushingUkrainetoagreetoitstermstoavoidthelossesofitsservicemen.
Itsakindofagood/badcopgame,withDonbasrebelsplayingtheroleofbadcopsforUkraineandPutinbeingtheviceversa.
:http://zik.ua/en/news/2016/06/01/russias_main_peace_instrument_is_war__serhy_taran_704317
TheUnravelingOfMoscow's'Novorossia'Dream
Aleksandr traveled to the Crimean capital, Simferopol, in February 2014 to work for the Russian Unity party
of Sergei Aksyonov, who went on to become Crimea's de facto governor following Russias annexation of the
Ukrainian region. After the annexation, Aleksandr worked within Aksyonovs administration.
'Little Green Men'
His main duties involved organizing Crimeas local defense volunteers. These hastily assembled and poorly
equipped groups were tasked with standing between the Ukrainian military and the infamous little green
men Russian military forces operating in masks without insignias.
Initially, Aleksandr said, there was no money for arms or equipment. But on March 3, the Russiabacked
insurgents managed to take over local branches of several Ukrainian banks. Money started coming in by the
bagful every day, Aleksandr said.
Soon, he was able to offer volunteers up to 800 rubles (roughly $22.40 at the time) a day, and the number
of recruits skyrocketed. After Russian intelligence forces took over the regional Supreme Soviet on February
28, Ukrainian police forces across Crimea seemingly melted away, and Aleksandrs selfdefense forces
scrambled to replace them.
He remembers the first week of March as particularly tense, as proRussia Crimeans waited nervously for any
sign from Moscow.
Until March 6, it was forbidden to speak about unification with Russia or to hang the Russian flag, he says.
Everyone was waiting for a final decision to be made in Moscow.
Aleksandr believes Moscow was waiting to see how Ukraines military would respond to the unfolding
situation. Only after it became apparent that Kyiv was not ready for a confrontation did the Kremlin give the
final goahead.
Russian flags that had been shipped in by the ton were unfurled, and a referendum on independence was
scheduled. Aleksandrs selfdefense forces began arming themselves with weapons taken from Ukrainian
armories
At the same time, more and more representatives of Moscow were appearing in the offices of the de
facto Crimean government. One day a man showed up at Aleksandrs office and said, Im Sasha, a PR
specialist from Moscow.
http://www.rferl.org/content/unraveling-moscow-novorossia-dream/27772641.html

UsingRussianFacebookIsaBadIdea
UnlessYouThinktheAnnexationof
CrimeaIsReallyGreat
Roughlyhalfofthe233peopleconvictedofhatespeechlastyearinRussiawere
usingthepopularFacebookcloneVKontakte.Buthatespeechisntalwayshate
speech.Sometimesyoucouldgotojailfortwoyearsforsharingamemeabout
toothpasteandCrimeatoyourtwelveonlinefriends,theAPreports.
http://gawker.com/using-russian-facebook-is-a-bad-idea-unless-you-think-t-1779614952
CrimeaforRussians:faceoffproject
JustafterCrimeaaccessiontoRussiatherewerealotoftalksaboutthemultiple-vectorCrimea
development.Russiangovernmentlaiddownplansregardingtourism,medicine,winemaking,
infrastructure,energeticdevelopment.Alotofpromiseswereheardtosolvetheproblemswithwater
supplyandpurification,withtransportconnection,etc.Theplanofestablishingarecreation,
entertainmentandgamblingarea,inotherwords,ofturningtheislandintomodernLasVegas,was
seriouslydiscussed.ThefreeeconomiczonewasconsideredtobecreatedinCrimea.Allinall,itwas
theperiodofcommitmentsanddreamingforCrimeans.Atthattimeoccupationalauthoritiesdrew
brightprospectsforthefuture.
ThoughtwoyearsafterCrimeaoccupationitispossibletosayforsurethatnopromiseswerefulfilled.
StillKremlinsuccessfullycopeswiththeonlyonetaskimplementationoftheprojectofpowerful
multipurposemilitarybasebuildup.Today,alltheresourcesaredirectedtoachievethisgoal.Noone
stillreferstoCrimeapeacefuldevelopmentplans,thesocialcomponentfellintotheshade.Moreover,it
becomesclearthatCrimeamilitarizationeliminatesthepossibilityoftourismandresortbusiness
development.
TheRussianauthoritiesaimatdeployingpowerfulmilitaryalignmentof100120thousandofmilitary
menintotalatthepeninsula.Itisplannedtolocatemorethan40newregiment-orbrigade-sized
formationsandmilitaryunits.CurrentlythenumberofsoldiersinCrimeaisalreadyabout5060
thousand.Toholdthesituationandpreventpossibleprotestactions,Russianauthoritieshave
substantiallyincreasedthenumberofspecialservicestaff.InCrimeatheirnumberisthreetimesas
muchasinotherRussiaregions.Itseasytoassumethatmajorityofmilitarymenexpecttostayhere
afterretirement.
Thus,thelifeofcivilianssuffersseriouschanges.Militarizationplansregardingthepeninsulainvolve
implementationoftheCrimeaforRussiansonlyproject.Itisevidencedbyquitefrankstatementsof
occupationalauthoritiesrepresentatives.Thus,forexample,thespokesmanofCrimeanstatecouncil
VladimirKonstantinovhasexpresslystatedthatoverthefollowing10yearsCrimeawillremaina
migrationproject.TheRussianauthoritiesencourageRussiancivilservantsandformermilitarymento
movetoCrimea.AllthemanagementofenterprisesandorganizationsisalreadyreplacedbyRussian
specialists.Andthenumberofsuchmigrantsatthepeninsulaisabove100thousand.Allofthemare
followedbymembersoftheirfamilieswives,childrenandoftentheirparentsmovingtothepermanent
placeofresidence.Theygetjobsonaprioritybasisaswellasschoolandkindergartensfortheir
children.Indigenouspeopleappeartobedefeatedinrightsaswellasundesirableswerebyhookor
crookforcedoutofCrimea.TheywerereplacedbyRussians(asarule,fromthedepthofthecountry)
usedtoRussianrealities,whowillnotposeaproblemfortheauthoritiesinfuture.
Asitisknown,tomaintainthemilitarybaseoptimalservicemen/civiliansratioshouldbe1:4,i.e.,four
civiliansserveonemilitaryman.Thus,itiseasytocalculatethat480500thousandofciviliansare
requiredtoserve120thousandstrongmilitaryalignment.Thepartsofthemaremembersofmilitary
mensfamilies.Eveniftodoublethenumberofcivilians,itwillrequirenomorethan1millionofcivilians
toservethemilitarybaseonpeninsulasterritory.Alltheothersareofnoneed.
http://www.groundreport.com/crimea-russians-face-off-project/
Russiannationalist:AnnexingCrimea,Putin
openedthewayforthedisintegrationofRussia
TheleaderoftheRussiannationalistmovementRussiansDmitryDemushkinfindsahugemistakethe
annexationofCrimeabyRussia.
IthinkthatPutinmadeanepicmistakeandriskyundertaking.RevisingthebordersofEuropeisunlawful,
especiallyforRussia,fortheRussianFederationisthelargestandthemostunoccupiedstateintheworld.
FromBaikaltoKamchatkathereisnopeopleandnothingatall.Andrevisingtheworldandbordersbyright
ofthestrongisaTrojanhorse,whichcouldnotbetouched.Theprecedentofrevisingbordersis
dangerousespeciallyfortheRussianFederation,becausethenotionoftheRussianlandisveryrelative,
hesaidinaninterview.
Accordingtohim,suchaprecedentcouldleadtothelossoftheterritoriesofRussiaitself.Reasonably
discussingwhereandwhoselandhistoricallyis,theKurilIslandsmaybeJapanese,FarEastandSiberia
Chinese,KareliaisFinnishandKaliningradGerman,etc.Putinmadeaverydangerousprecedent,andit
isnotintheinterestsoftheRussiansfortomorrowtheChinesecanentertheirgreenmeninSiberiaand
holdareferendumthere.Itwasabigmistaketogiveupontheinternationallawsopublicly.Ibelievethat
bigeventsarewaitingforus.Alotofbloodwillbespilled.Wearestandingonthevergeofsomethingbig
andbloody,concludedDemushkin.
http://en.sobytiya.info/russian-nationalist-annexing-crimea-putin-opened-the-way-for-the-disintegration-of-russia.html
Senttime: 06/02/201603:01:24PM
To: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:2016-#100-Johnson'sRussiaList
It'saninterestingreadthatGrahamessay.AlotofwordstostatethatfolksMcFaultypifiesarereallystupid.
SentfrommyiPad
OnJun2,2016,at5:54PM,KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>wrote:
My'obsessive'friendonafavouredtheme.
SentfrommyiPad
Beginforwardedmessage:
From:JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
Date:2June201613:44:19AEST
To:"'wilsonkyle81@gmail.com'"<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>,"Wall,David(David.Wall@ona.gov.au)"
<David.Wall@ona.gov.au>,"'dantebbutt@yahoo.com'"<dantebbutt@yahoo.com>,Elizabeth
Buchanan<elizabeth.buchanan@anu.edu.au>,"RobertHorvath(rghorvath@yahoo.com)"
<rghorvath@yahoo.com>
Subject:FW:2016-#100-Johnson'sRussiaList
FortheumpteenthtimethisisalmostpureKremlinpropaganda,withsomehighlyselectiveand
prejudicialWesternmaterial,plusPaulGobleasapointofrebuttal.WhydoWesternuniversities
fundthisstuff?Itsgenerouslyfundedbythepetrostateitself.

From:DavidJohnson[mailto:david@cdi.ccsend.com]OnBehalfOfDavidJohnson
Sent:Thursday,2June20162:59AM
To:JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
Subject:2016#100Johnson'sRussiaList

Havingtroubleviewingthisemail?Clickhere
Johnson'sRussiaList
2016-#100
1June2016
davidjohnson@starpower.net
AprojectsponsoredthroughtheInstituteforEuropean,Russian,andEurasianStudies(IERES)atThe
GeorgeWashingtonUniversity'sElliottSchoolofInternationalAffairs*
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donotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofIERESortheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity.
"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"
"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"
Youseewhatyouexpecttosee
"Thebiggestcommunicationproblemiswedonotlistentounderstand.We
listentoreply."
Inthisissue
TODAY
1.RethinkingRussia:ThinkTankAtlas:RussianStudiesAbroad.(Withintroductory
remarksbyRichardSakwa,ThomasGraham,andYanVaslavskiy)
2.RussianMinistryofForeignAffairs:ForeignMinisterSergeyLavrov'sinterviewto
KomsomolskayaPravdanewspaperandradio,Moscow,May31,2016.
3.RossiyskayaGazeta:SergeiKaraganov,Russianforeignpolicy:newstage?-Groupof
establishedexpertshavepresentedtheirviewoftheprioritiesofRussianforeignpolicy.
4.www.rt.com:MedvedevcallsformajorefforttoimproveRussians'attitudetoward
businesspeople.
5.US-RussiaBusinessCouncil:Medvedev:EconomicGrowthWillDependOnChanging
PerceptionsOfBusiness.
6.UPI.com:Russiaexpectseconomicgrowthinayear.
7.RussiaDirect:DmitryDokuchaev,WhenwilltheRussianeconomyfinallyemergefrom
recession?DespitesomepositiveindicatorsintheRussianeconomy,itbadlyneeds
structuralreformstoresumestableeconomicgrowth.
8.www.rt.com:RussiagivesawayfirstfreelandinFarEast.
9.Izvestia:SergeiMarkov,PrimariesinRussia:Adifficultdevelopmentalstage.Onthe
needtoreducethegapbetweendeputiesandvoters.
10.Politkom.ru:InterviewwithpoliticalanalystKonstantinKalachev,byAleksandrIvakhnik:
KonstantinKalachev:'ObjectivesofPrimariesHaveGenerallyBeenAchieved.Meanwhile,
ProblemsinIndividualRegionsAllowPartyToPinCertainAlarmLightsonMapofRussia'
11.Meduza:ThestrangedeathofRussia's'DemocraticCoalition'
12.Vedomosti:RussianpapersayspressureonNGOleadersincreasing.
13.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:'Putin'speople':Themysteriousagencythatguardsthe
president'slife.TheheadofRussia'sFederalProtectionService(FSO),responsiblefor
protectingthelifeofthepresident,hasbeenreplaced.RBTHlooksintowhatthischange
meansandwhatthismostmysteriousofallRussianspecialservicesdoestoday.
14.www.rt.com:'Exemplaryintlrelations:'Russia-ChinatiesattheirpeakdespiteWestern
sanctions.
15.Sputnik:DiplomaticTightrope:WillRussiaSolveYetAnotherSyrianProblem.
16.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:BryanMacDonald,PoliticaldivisionoverUkrainesets
sceneforthawinRussia-EUrelations.ThereleaseofUkrainianpilotNadiyaSavchenkoby
MoscowandhintsinGermanyofarelaxationonsanctions,aswellaspositiveovertures
towardRussiabyEUCommissionPresidentJean-ClaudeJuncker,haveraisedrealhopes
thatRussiaandtheEUmaybereadytostartrebuildingtheirrelationship.
17.NewYorkTimes:IanBateson,UkraineDeclaresWaronJournalism.
18.TheTimesofIsrael:Ukrainehonorsnationalistwhosetroopskilled50,000Jews.
19.RussiaInsider:ladislavSotirovic,WhoAretheUkrainians?DoesUkrainestillputyour
headinaspin?ASerbo-Lithuanianacademicgivesaclearbreakdownofexactlywhat
'Ukraine'and'Ukrainians'are.
20.PaulGoble:RussiaRemainsaByzantineStateandthatMayDoomIt,'Gazeta'Editors
Say.
21.VineyardoftheSaker:EugeniaVGurevich,DmitriOrlov,andTheSaker(A.Raevsky),A
RussianWarning.
#1
RethinkingRussia
http://rethinkingrussia.ru
June1,2016
ThinkTankAtlas:RussianStudiesAbroad.(WithintroductoryremarksbyRichardSakwa,
ThomasGraham,andYanVaslavskiy)
RethinkingRussiaishonoredtopresentthefindingsofitslatestresearchproject"Think
TankAtlas:RussianStudiesAbroad."Thisreportthatisbasedonauniquedatabaseof
researchinstituteswhosesphereofinterestisRussiashedslightonthecurrentpositionof
RussianStudiesindifferentcornersoftheworld.http://rethinkingrussia.ru/en/wp-
content/uploads/2016/03/Think-Tank-Atlas.pdf
TheColdWarperiodwitnessedagreatinterestofWesternexpertsintheSovietUnion.
ThatlaidthegroundworkfortheemergenceanddevelopmentofSovietandCommunist
studiesasaspecificinterdisciplinaryfieldwhichfocusedontheSovietUnion,itssocio-
politicalregime,economyandculture.
WhereasduetothebackgroundoftheclosedcharacteroftheSovietsystemsovietologists
lackedaccesstoinformation,whichhadanadverseeffectonresearchpotential,nowadays
expertsonRussianstudieshaveawiderangeofinstrumentsattheirdisposal.
Paradoxically,inthe1990sandthe2000stheWesterninterestinRussiaasasuccessorof
theUSSR,whichcollapsedintheearly1990s,startedtowane.Theend-of-historyeffect,
illusionsabouttheeffectivenessoftheunipolarworldorder,aswellasthemyopicexclusion
ofRussiafromtheranksofkeyinternationalplayers,polarizedtheacademiccommunity:
thedemandforspecialistsonCommunistStudiesfellconsiderably,andyoungand
prospectivescholarsdecidedtochooseotherregionsastheirareastudies.
TTatlascover
Overtherecent25yearsthreeseriousproblemsrelatedtotheabovementionedtrends
havebeenbroughttothefore.Firstly,"oldschool"sovietologistshaveloststimulito
advancetheirskillsandsustaintheirresearchpotential.Todaymostofthemaremore
cognizantofMoscow'sinternalandexternalpoliciesincomparisonwithforeignjournalists,
tryingtolookatRussiathroughtheprismofstereotypesandclichs.Secondly,amidthe
absenceofyoungspecialiststheyawninggapbetweenscientificgenerationshasbecome
muchmoreevident.ThereisalackofrelativelyyoungspecialistsonRussiawhosecareer
tookoffinthe1990sand2000s.
Thirdly,itisinevitabletohighlightthatthecrisisofthisdisciplinehashadatremendous
impactonthedevelopmentofinternationalrelation,especially,amongkeypowers.Ithas
manifesteditselfinalowerqualityofexpertiseindecision-makingintherealmofforeign
policy,undermininghumanpotentialofthinktanks,governmentalbodies,themassmedia
etc.Inotherwords,thecausesofcurrentdifferencesarealsolinkedwithless
understandingtheinterestsofeachother.
However,thegrowingconfrontationintheworldhaspreparedthegroundfortherevivalof
theinterestinRussia,whichhasbeenevidentduringlast3or4years.Nowadaysthe
desireofWesternelitestounderstandRussia,aswellasitssocioeconomicdevelopment
anddecision-making,isratherclear.Yetthisaspirationisnotalwaysunderpinnedby
researchandexpertresources,competentpeopleandeffectivecooperationwithRussian
academiccircles.Inthecontextoftheglobalizationineducation,scienceandexpertisethe
lastelementplaysaseminalroleinreestablishingthepositionsofRussianstudiesabroad.
Onlytheconstructivedialogueontheinternationalstateandtheconstantexpertopinion
exchangewillenableustofaceahigherlevelofunderstandingbetweencountries,ruling
elitesandresearchcommunities.
----
INTRODUCTION
RichardSakwa
Professor,UniversityofKentatCanterbury
Atatimeofintensifiedglobalcompetitionandthedeteriorationinthequalityofpolitical
relationships,ithasbecomemoreimportantthanevertohaveimpartialandaccurate
information.Inthiscontext,thinktanksoccupyanindeterminateposition.Theyareboth
generatorsofknowledge,buttheyalsofocusoninterpretation.Althoughmanypride
themselvesontheirimpartialityandindependence,othersarepartisananddedicatedto
advancingapredeterminedposition.Inotherwords,thinktankshaveallthevarietytypical
ofcitizensinademocraticcommunity.Someareinformedanddedicatedtothepursuitof
justiceandtruth,whileothersarecommittedtothedefenseofthestatusquo,privilegeor
someothergoal.Thethinktankcommunitythusconstitutesadistinctivesortofpublic
sphere,wheredebateanddiscussionisconductedonaglobalscale.
Thisvarietyanddiversityofambitionisgoalsarepowerfullycapturedinthisimpressive
studybyRethinkingRussia.Thinktanksareplacedbetweenconsultingcompanies,whose
dependenceonthemarketnexusisacknowledged,anduniversities,whichhave
traditionallybeendedicatedtothepursuitofimpartialunderstanding,ifnotwisdom.This
studyrevealsthewaythat'knowledge'isgeneratedbyanetworkoforganizationsthathave
aprivilegedrelationshipinsociety.Thinktanksarenodalpointsthatconcentrateexpertise
andadvocacy.TheyarebothEnlightenmentbodiesandatthesametimepost-
Enlightenment.Liketheintelligentsiaasawholeinthemodernworld,somearethe
equivalentsofwhatAntonioGramscicalled'traditionalintellectuals',committedtothe
independentstudyofsocialphenomena,whileothersare'organicintellectuals',reflecting
thepowerstructuresofagivensociety.
WhenitcomestothestudyofRussia,thisdistinctionbecomesallthemoreimportant.
RussiahaslongstoodinanorthogonalrelationshiptoWesternmodernity-certainlynot
rejectingtheachievementsofthatmodernity,butalwayslookingforamodeofintegration
intothatmodernitythatcanretaincertainsocially-definedelementsoftraditionand
difference.ThisreservedpositionmakesthestudyofRussiamultivalentandsusceptibleto
themostvaried-andpolarized-ofinterpretations.
WiththedeclineofRussia'sgreatpowerstatusafter1991,Russiawasnolessfascinating
asanobjectofstudy,butitwasnolongerperceivedtobeso
important.
ThiswasreflectedinthesharpdeclineinthenumberofintelligenceanalystsintheUS,
whichattheheightoftheColdWarnumberedsome13,000,andthenfelltonomorethan
1000in2012.Thenumberisnowanticipatedonceagaintorisesharplyaselementsof
whatsomecallanewColdWarbecomeestablished.Thispatternisreflectedmore
broadly,withthenumberofcoursesinRussianstudiesdecliningprecipitouslyafterthe
ColdWar.NowthatRussiaisonceagainperceivedasachallenge,ifnotathreat,interest
inthestudyofthecountryisonceagainrising.Thetraditionof'knowyourenemy'was
neverentirelytransformedintoaprogramof'knowyourfriend'.
Inthatcontext,thinktankshaveanimportantroletoplay.Theyarehybridgeneratorsof
socialknowledge.Thisstudydefinesthinktanksas'independentorautonomousentities,
thataimtoprovideexpertiseforgovernmentdecision-makingondomesticandinternational
issues'(p.8).Thisisagooddescription,butdoesnotcoverthewaythatmanythinktanks
seektoshapenotjustgovernmentpolicybutalsosocialattitudesandpublicorientations.
TheproblemofthestudyofRussiaisexacerbatedbythegeneraldeclineinareastudies.
Thiswastraditionallyoneofthepillarsinthestudyofindividualcountriesandregions,
encompassingthestudyoflanguages,literatureandculturecombinedwiththeanalysisof
historyandpolitics.Inpart,thistraditionalholisticapproachisunderminedbythedrastic
declineinthestudyofforeignlanguages,atleastintheAnglo-Saxonworld.Thedeclinein
linguisticskillsisoneofthegreatestthreatstoachievingadeepunderstandingofaforeign
country,andnowheremoresothaninthestudyofRussia.
Thisstudyfocusesontheanalysisof637thinktanksin85countries.Themethodologyis
robustinarrivingatthisfigure.
Independentanalysisiscriticalforeffectivepolicy-making,butasthestudyshows,fromthe
veryearliestdaystherehasbeencriticism.Thefirstthinktankwasestablishedin1831by
theDukeofWellington,andstillcontinuesastheRoyalUnitedServicesInstitute(RUSI),
andisthustheoldestthinktankintheworld.Theearliestthinktanks,asthestudyargues,
werecriticizedfortryingtoimpose'expertocracy'onsociety,andthusundermining
democracy.Thecritiqueofthetechnocraticmanagementofsocietycontinuestothisday,
althoughthestickhasnowbeenbentrathertoomuchtheotherway,andtoomuchpolicyin
conditionsofcontemporarycapitalistmodernityisdrivenbyideologyratherthanexpertise.
Thisstudyshowstherichdiversityofthethinktankworld.Thosefoundedinthesecond
decadeofthetwentiethcenturyorsoonafterhavenowbecomeglobalbrands.The
CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeacewasestablishedin1910,anditsvarious
manifestationsarenowbecomingagenuinelyglobalpresence,withofficesinBrussels,
Indiaandsomeotherplaces,butaboveallinMoscow.TheMoscowCarnegieCentreisone
ofthemostrespectedsourcesofindependentanalysisinRussiaaboutRussia,althoughit
remainstrappedinaveritablemaelstromofpoliticalpressures,rangingfromtheradical
liberalsontheonesidetoneo-traditionalistconservativesontheother,accompaniedby
bureaucraticpressuresfromabove.TheRoyalInstituteofInternationalAffairs-Chatham
Housewasestablishedin1920,anditsRussiaandEurasiaProgram(withwhichIproudto
beaffiliatedasanAssociateFellow)hasanimpressiveprogramofpublicationsand
meetingsonRussiaandthewiderregion,yetittooisnotimmunetotheintensepolitical
polarizationtowhichthestudyofRussiatodayisprey.Thelineofdivisionisbetweenthose
whoargueforengagementwiththepresentsystemonthegroundsthatthereremainsan
evolutionarypotentialtoacomplexsocialandpoliticalorganism,andthosewhocondemn
theregimeandallofitsworks.
Thestudynoteshowsome'thinktankshavemorphedintoinstitutesofthemostbiased
politics'(p.16),andthisisindeedthecase.Thestudyprovidessomenotableexamples,
butperhapsdoesnotgofarenough.
Therearenowawholerangeofthinktanksthatarededicatedtofightingthe'newCold
War',andthuseffectivelycreatetheconditionsforarenewalof
conflict.
Theseareclassic'organic'bodies,reflectingandpropagatingthevirtuesofaradicalized
Atlanticsecuritycommunity.Theseareindeedinstrumentsof'softpower',intheclassic
andoriginaldefinitionofthetermbyJosephNye-astheconsolidationofhegemonicpower
bynon-coercivemeans.AsNyearguedlater,inadoptingtheterm,bothRussiaandChina
failedreallytounderstandwhatNyehadinmind.Thechapterinthisstudyonsoftpower
adoptsaprudentlycriticalstanceontheterm.
Overall,thisisasophisticatedandimportantstudythattakesusintothecontemporary
thinktankworld.Asoneofthemostimportantactorsindemocratic
society,itisimportantthatweunderstandhowthinktanksworkandhowtheirrolein
societyandcontemporarypoliticsischanging.Aspoliticalpartiesundergoarelativedecline
astheaggregatorsandmobilizesofpoliticalpreferences,thinktankshavebecome
increasinglyimportantasthearticulatorsofsocialandpoliticaldemands.Thisstudythus
doesanimportantjobinhelpingusunderstandoneofthecriticalactorsincontemporary
politicalsociety.
---
ThomasGraham
ManagingDirectoratKissingerAssociates
Atatimeofgreatfluxinglobalaffairs,asRussiareassertsitselfagreatpower,itiscritical
thatRussiansgainabetterunderstandingofhowtherestoftheworldviewstheircountry.
ForRussia,asforothercountries,successinforeignpolicydependsinnosmallmeasure
onappreciatinghowothercountrieswillperceiveitsactionsandrespond.Whatdoother
governmentsknowaboutRussiaanditspriorities?WhatdotheybelieveRussia'sgoals
areintheworld,anddotheyseethemascompatiblewithorcontrarytotheirown?Howdo
theyassessRussia'scapabilities,bothnowandinthelongrun?WhatcanRussiadoto
shapetheviewsofothergovernmentsinwaysthatarefavorabletotheadvanceofRussian
interests?ThosearethequestionsthattheKremlinshouldbeasking.
Inthiscontext,thecurrentvolume,ThinkTankAtlas:RussianStudiesAbroad,makesa
majorcontributiontotheunderstandingoftheroleofnon-Russianthinktanksinshaping
publicopinionandgovernmentpolicyintheUnitedStatesandkeycountriesinEuropeand
Asia.ItthrowslightonwhatothergovernmentsthinkofRussia,whytheythinkthatway,and
whoprovidesthemanalyticalinsightforthosejudgments.
Astheauthorsnote,expertiseonRussiaintheUnitedStateshashollowedoutsincethe
endoftheColdWaragenerationago.
Inthepasttwotothreeyears,manyintheUnitedStates,policy-makers,businessleaders,
andacademicsalike,havebemoanedtheseemingdearthofRussiaexpertsandthe
foreignpolicycommunity'sfailureasawholetopredictrecentRussianactionsinUkraine
andSyria.Muchdiscussionisnowbeingdevotedtohowtorebuildthatexpertiseonthe
assumptionthatRussiawillcontinuetobeamajorplayerontheglobalsceneforyearsto
come.Whatconcretelythesediscussionswillleadstoremainstobeseen.
ThedeclineinRussianstudies,however,wasnotinthefirstinstanceaconsequenceofa
declineofinterestinRussia,asisgenerallyassumed.Rather,itwasamatterofachange
inthecharacterofthatinterest.DuringtheColdWar,theSovietUnionwasseenasanalien
system,espousinganideologyfundamentallyhostiletoAmericanvaluesandchallenging
theUnitedStatesforglobalsupremacy.Inallthebigissuesofthetime,ofwarandpeace,
ofnuclearweaponsandstrategy,ofeconomicdevelopmentandprosperity,ofstateand
society,theSovietUnionwasaplayerandmoreoftenthannotofferedanswers
diametricallyopposedtoAmericanones.Lockedinaglobal(withregardtobothterritory
andissues),existentialstruggle,theAmericanexpertcommunityfacedcomplexquestions
abouttheorigins,strengthsandvulnerabilities,thoughtanddecision-makingprocesses,
andfuturedirectionsandpossibilitiesoftheSovietsystem.Tofashionappropriate
responses,decisionmakersneededexpertswithprofoundknowledgeofRussia,orthe
SovietUnion.TheinterestinRussiaquaRussiawasintense.
UltimatelymillionsofdollarswerespentintheeducationoftensofthousandsofRussia
experts.ThiswasthetimewhenthegreatRussianresearchcenterswerefoundedat
HarvardandColumbia,whenRANDwascreatedwithafocusonSovietstudies,and
Russianlanguagestudieswererichlyfunded.
WiththeendoftheColdWar,theinterestinRussiadidnotfade.Indeed,theClinton
AdministrationputRussiaattheverycenterofitsforeignpolicy.
Thepresidenthimselfspokeofa"strategicalliancewithRussianreform."Butinasense
theUnitedStatesproceededasifitknewtheanswerstothebigquestionsofthepost-Cold
Warworld.WiththedemiseofMarxism-Leninism,Russiawasontheinevitablepathto
becomingafree-marketdemocracyalongAmericanlines.Thatwasthebasicmeaningof
the"endofhistory."AndsotheinterestwasnotinRussiaquaRussiabutintheknowledge
AmericansshouldbringtoRussianstofacilitateandacceleratethatinevitabletransition.
LittlethoughtwasgiventohowthedeepstructuresofRussianthought,history,orculture
wouldaffectthetrajectoryfewwouldadmitthatRussiacouldtakeanotherpath.Theexpert
community,supportedbythegovernmentandthemedia,wasinterestedinfindingthe
evidencetoprovethatitwasrightaboutthetransition.Littleattentionwaspaidtowhatwas
actuallyhappeninginsideRussia,andalmostnonewaspaidtoRussianforeignpolicy
(becauseRussiawaswrittenoffasamajorglobalactor).TheoryblindedAmericansto
reality.
Afterthefinancialcollapseof1998andthefirstyearsofPutin'spresidency,however,itwas
clearthatRussiawasnotmakingthetransitionthathadbeenanticipated.Amongother
things,PresidentPutinsoughttolinkcurrentdevelopments,particularlyinthepoliticalfield,
toRussia'srichtradition.Russia,hesaid,wouldnotblindlycopytheWestinrebuildingits
politicalsystemRussiandemocracywouldhaveitsownuniquecharacteristics.Expertsin
"transitology"werenotintellectuallypreparedtoacceptthisdevelopment-forthemitwas
littlemorethanadeviationfromtheappropriatereformcourse-andtheynevermadean
efforttostudyitonitsownterms.AndsotheUnitedStateswasleftwithanexpert
communitythatdidnotunderstandRussiandomesticdevelopmentsevenifitworkedon
Russia,whileitlargelyignoredRussiaasamajorplayerontheglobalstage.Formuchof
thepast25years,theproblemhasbeennotsomuchthedeclineofinterestinRussian
studies-althoughtherecertainlyhasbeenlessinterestandfewerfundsasattention
shiftedtoChinaandtheMiddleEast-asithasbeentheremovalofRussiafromRussian
studies.
Today,asRussiafiguresprominentlyagainasaglobalactorwithadistinctivepolitical
system,thechallengebeforetheUnitedStatesisnotonlyprovidingmorefundstoRussian
studiesbutputtingRussiabackintothosestudies.
TheUnitedStatesneedsRussiaexpertswhoareinfactexpertinRussianmatters.Much
canbedoneintheUnitedStatesitself,butcriticaltotheeffortisinternationalcooperation,
withthinktanksandinstitutionsinEuropeandAsia,andofcourseinRussiaitself,ifonly
becauseRussiahasplayeddifferentrolesinvariouspartsoftheworldandthoseroles
haveinfluencedlocalperceptions.Theintellectualinteractionwillenrichdiscussionand
leadtowardsamorecomprehensiveunderstandingofRussia.Itwillalsohelpusidentify
thebigquestionsaboutRussiaitself,aboutitsessenceasapoliticalsystemandglobal
actor.Inthisregard,thevolumeyouhavebeforeyouprovidesawealthofinformationfor
thinktanksandotherinstitutions
intendonbuildingatrulyinternationalnetworkforRussiastudies.Thereisnobetterplace
tostart.
---
YanVaslavskiy,PhDinPoliticalScience,
DirectoratRethinkingRussia
TheColdWarperiodwitnessedagreatinterestofWesternexpertsintheSovietUniondue
togoodhistoricalreasons.Thatlaidthegroundworkfortheemergenceanddevelopmentof
SovietandCommuniststudiesasaspecificinterdisciplinaryfieldwhichfocusedonthe
SovietUnion,itssocio-politicalregime,economyandculture.
Theend-of-historyeffect,illusionsabouttheeffectivenessoftheunipolarworldorder,as
wellasthemyopicexclusionofRussiafromtheranksofkey
internationalplayers,polarizedtheacademiccommunity.
Paradoxically,inthe1990sand2000stheWesterninterestinRussiaasasuccessortothe
USSR,whichcollapsedintheearly1990s,startedtowane.
wellasthemyopicexclusionofRussiafromtheranksofkeyinternationalplayers,
polarizedtheacademiccommunity:thedemandforspecialistsonCommunistStudiesfell
considerably,andyoungandprospectivescholarsdecidedtochooseotherregionsastheir
areastudies.
NowadaysthedesireofWesternelitestounderstandRussia,aswellasitssocioeconomic
developmentanddecision-making,isratherclear.
Giventheabovementionedchallenges,theInternationalAnalyticalCenter"Rethinking
Russia"considersthe"ThinkTankAtlas"tobehighlyrelevant.This
report,basedontheuniquedatabaseofresearchinstituteswhosespheresofinterest
includeRussia,shedslightonthecurrentpositionofRussianStudiesindifferentcornersof
theworld.
[returntoContents]
#3
RussianMinistryofForeignAffairs
ForeignMinisterSergeyLavrov'sinterviewtoKomsomolskayaPravdanewspaperand
radio,Moscow,May31,2016
Question:Let'sgrabthebullbythehorns.Wehavereceivedhundredsofdifferent
messagesandquestions.Manyofthemshowoutrightconcerninconnectionwithavery
difficultsituationregardingthiscountry.Theyhavetriedtocrushuswithsanctions,NATOis
movingclosertoourborders,andamissiledefencesystemisbeingdeveloped.Our
countryisundergoingunprecedenteddemonisationbyinternationalmedia.Theydon'twant
tohearus.TheUnitedStatesisleadingthisprocess.USPresidentBarackObamasaid
thattheAmericannationisexceptional,andothercountriesmustplaybytherulessetby
theUnitedStates.Theroleofavassalisclearlyinappropriateforus.Arewedoomedto
eternalrivalryandconflictwiththeconsolidatedWestledbytheUnitedStates,whichatany
momentcouldslipintoconfrontation,nottomentionadarkerscenario?Thepeopleare
increasinglysayingthattherewillbewar.Howsubstantiatedaretheseconcerns?
SergeyLavrov:Therewillbeno"worldwar".PresidentPutinsaidthisinVladimirSolovyov's
filmWorldOrder.IamconvincedthatresponsiblepoliticiansintheWestwillnotallowthis
tohappeneither,becausetheystillrememberwellthehorrorsoftheFirstandtheSecond
WorldWars.RussiasufferedthegreatestlossesduringthewarinEurope,Chinasuffered
thegreatestlossesinthePacificasitfoughtJapanesemilitarism.Again,thepoliticians
cannotletthathappen.
Ofcourse,wecanrelyonothers,butaboveall,weneedtothinkaboutusbeingprepared
topreventanotherwar.Suchattemptsarebeingmadeinregardtobuildingexcessive
militarycapabilitiesandinviolationofinternationaltreaties.
Youmentionedtheairdefencesystem.In2001,theUnitedStateswithdrewfromtheAnti-
BallisticMissileTreaty.Backthen,USPresidentGeorgeW.Bushsaid,inresponseto
concernsexpressedbyPresidentVladimirPutin,thatMoscowneednottoworryaboutit,
asitisnotaimedtowardRussia,andtheUnitedStatesunderstandsthatRussiawillbe
forcedtorespond.HealsosaidthatMoscowcouldtakeanystepsanddowhatitwants.
OurpeacefulneighboursfromEasternEuropeshouldalsokeepthisinmind.Weare
issuingcalmwarningmessagesthatwewilltakeretaliatorystepsifNATOmilitary
infrastructuremovesclosertoourborders.Theytendtoforgetaboutthisandblame
Russia.
We,asamatterofcourse,arebeingblamedfortheUkrainecrisisandtheSyriacrisis.
Theykeeptellinguswhatweshouldandmustdo.Nowtheywantustoprovideassistance
withregardtotheLibyacrisis.Soon,perhaps,wewillbeaccusedofwhat'shappeningin
Yemen.Thisisapremeditatedpolicy,Ihavenodoubtaboutit.Frankly,fromthebeginning
ofthe20thcentury,andevenearlier,fromthetimeofIvantheTerrible,noonewantedto
seeastrongandconfidentRussia.Throughoutthelastcentury,theBritishandthe
AmericanshavedonetheirbesttopreventEurasiafrommaintainingitsintegrity,meaning
theRussianEmpire,theSovietUnionandwhatishappeningnowintermsoftheeffortsto
promoteintegrationprocessesinthepost-Sovietspace.Allofthisfitsintotheconceptthat
theAmericanpoliticalscientistZbigniewBrzezinskioutlinedinhisbook,TheGrand
Chessboard,wherehedirectlysetthetaskofnotallowingthebarbarianstounite.That's
howhephrasedit.Clearly,thisisafigureofspeech,butitshowsclearlyenoughthe
underlyingtrainofthought.
Now,asforwhatweneedtodo.Clearly,Russiaisbeingdemonised,andthat'sokay,
becauseweshouldhavegottenusedtothis:withrareexceptions,ourpartnershavenever
beenopenwithusthroughouthistory.RemembertheFultonspeechdeliveredafew
monthsfollowingtheendofWorldWarII,afterthegreatvictoryoftheAllies?Duringthe
war,WinstonChurchillpubliclyadmiredStalin,sayingtheSovietUnionwasasolidpartner
andally,andthenmaderemarksthatstartedtheColdWar.I'mnoteventalkingabout
informationforwhichIcouldbeaccusedofparanoia.InthewakeoftheG7meetingsin
HiroshimaandaspartofPresidentObama'svisittoJapan,ourmediaandpublichadmajor
discussionsaboutthereasonsbehindthedecisiontodropatomicbombsonHiroshima
andNagasaki.ItisknownthatPresidentTrumanseriouslyconsideredconsigningabout20
Sovietcitiestothesamefate.
Letmerepeatthatitisnecessarytobefriendsandhavegoodrelationswitheveryone.This
isourprinciple.Russia'sforeignpolicyismulti-directionalandweareopentopartnership
andcooperationwithallthosewhoarepreparedtoworktogetheronthebasisofequity,
mutualadvantageandconsiderationofeachother'sinterests.However,inpromotingthis
policyweshouldrememberthatourmainalliesarestilltheArmy,theNavyandnowalso
theAerospaceForces.
Yourquestionwasveryexpansive-ittouchedonmanythings.Asforsanctions,inthe
contextofwhatIhavesaidUkrainewasonlyapretexttoratchetupsanctions.Thepolicyof
containingRussiabeganmuchearlier.AssoonastheyunderstoodthatPresidentVladimir
Putintakingofficein2000meantRussiawantedtobeindependentinforeignaffairs,
domesticaffairsandeconomicpolicy,theystartedlookingforwaystocontainus.Afterall,
theMagnitskyActwasadoptedlongbeforetheeventsinUkraine.Alotoffactshavebeen
revealed,includingindocumentariesthatarebannedinEuropeforsomereason.These
filmsandthefactstheydepictshowthatSergeyMagnitsky'sdeathistheresultofahuge
scambyWilliamBrowderwhoisnothingbutasleazycrook,which,Iamsure,many
peoplewhohavedealtwithhimknow.Sanctionswereimposed.LaterPresidentBarrack
ObamacancelledhisvisittoMoscowontheeveoftheG20summitinStPetersburgin
September2013becausehetookoffenceoverEdwardSnowden,whohadfledfromthe
USNationalSecurityAgencyandaskedRussiaforasylum.Wehadtograntitoutof
humanitarianconsiderations-oneofthereasonswassimplyhislackofapassport-hedid
nothavethedocumentsallowinghimtoleaveRussia.Theyalsotookoffence,started
bullyingandthreateningusalbeitnotasstronglyasinUkraine'scase.
Weperceivethecurrenteconomicrestrictionsimposedonusasawindowofopportunity
thatweshouldmakethemostofinordertostrengthenourfoodandtechnologicalsecurity,
continuediversifyingtheeconomyandforeigneconomictiesandfinallycreatealternative
effectivefinancialmechanismsandpaymentssystems.
Iwouldsayitisnotsoimportantforuswhentheanti-Russiansanctionsarelifted-we
haven'timposedthemandwon'tdiscussanycriteriaortermsfortheirremovalbutonly
howwecanmaximiseourcurrentpositionintheinterestsofourowneconomyand
development.
Question:Whywouldacountrythatwonthewarbegacountrythatlostthewartosigna
peacetreaty?WeshouldgiveJapanhalfofRussia'sterritorytogetittosignapeacetreaty
withus?WhydowehavetosurrendertheKurilIslandsandbegJapantosignapeace
treatywithus?
SergeyLavrov:Wedonotneedtodothis,wearenotdoingthis,andwillnotdothisinthe
future.WearenotsurrenderingtheKurilIslands,norarewebeggingJapantosignapeace
treaty.AsareliableandresponsiblepowerandthesuccessortotheSovietUnion,Russia
atsomepointconfirmedthatwearecommittedtoallobligationsassumedbytheSoviet
Union.TheseobligationsincludetheSoviet-JapaneseDeclarationof1956,whichwas
signedandratifiedbytheparliamentsoftheSovietUnionandJapan.Thedeclarationstates
thatthepartiesundertaketoconcludeapeacetreaty,andonlyafterthat,theSovietUnion,
asithadpledgedtodobackthen,may,asagestureofgoodwillandbasedonexpectations
oftheJapanesepeople,transfertheJapaneseislandsofShikotanandHabomaitoJapan.
Aboveall,thismoveispredicatedonourJapaneseneighboursunconditionallyrecognising
theoutcomeofWorldWarII.Unfortunately,notonlyinconnectionwiththeislands,but
morelikely,regardlessofit,ourJapanesepartnersarenotwillingtodoso.Japanremains,
infact,theonlyUNmembercountrythathasnotconfirmedtheprovisionsoftheUN
Charterthatsayseverythingthatwasdonebythevictoriouspowersisimmutable.
WearewillingtolookforwaystocooperatewithourJapaneseneighbours.Japanisagreat
country,agreatnationthathasacomplicatedhistory,includingahistory,toputitmildly,of
badrelationswithitsneighbours.However,weareallinterestedinhavingtheJapaneseand
theRussianpeople,aswellasthepeopleofallothercountries,liveinharmonyandbenefit
fromcooperation.Talkingaboutamutuallyacceptablesolutiontotheterritorialdispute
withoutrecognisingtheoutcomeofWorldWarIIisimpossible.Thisiswhatwekeeptelling
ourJapanesepartnerseverytimewetalkwiththem.Wearealsosayingthatthereare
manyopportunitiestoimprovethissituation.Inparticular,duringthelastroundof
consultations,weproposedconsideringthehistoricalaspectofthisissue,sothateveryone
isclearthatWorldWarIIputanendtothestoryoftheseislandschanginghands.
WedorealisethatthegravesoftherelativesofJapanesepeopleareontheseislands.
Somepeoplewhousedtoliveontheseislandsarestillalive.Wehavespecialvisa-free
travelprogrammesforJapanesepeoplevisitingtheSouthKurilIslands.Theresidentsof
theSakhalinRegion,bytheway,canalsogotoJapanaspartofvisa-freegroups.Wehave
foralongtimenowbeeninvitingourJapaneseneighbourstoengageineconomicactivity
ontheseislandstogetherwithus.Theycanmakeinvestmentsandcreatespecial
economicareas.Theycandoallofthis.IhopethatourJapanesecolleagueswillfocus
preciselyontheseactivities.Atleast,wehavemadesuchinvitationsavailabletothem.I
thinkthatthiswillclearmanyissuesfromtheagenda.Ifwhatmattersisthattheseislands
areopentoJapanesevisitorsandbusinessmen,Japan-sponsoredhumanitarianactions,
theneverythingelseisprobablynotasfundamental.
Question:Whatistheessenceofthenewapproachtotheso-called"northernterritories"
issue,whichwasspelledoutbyJapanesePrimeMinisterShinzoAbeinSochinotlong
ago?
SergeyLavrov:Thereisnothinginitthathasnotbeendiscussedbefore.This,infact,
meansthatourdialogueisreturningtothetrackoutlinedbackin2003duringaRussian-
Japanesesummitandreaffirmedin2013whenJapanesePrimeMinisterShinzoAbewas
inRussiaonanofficialvisit.
Theideaisthatinordertoaddressanyproblemsthatemergeoroldproblems,weneedto
stepupourpartnershipinalldirectionsandmakeitfullyfledgedandstrategic.This
concernstradeandeconomicties,particularlytheinvestmentfield(mutualinvestment)and
thehumanitarianexchangesthatarestronglydesiredbyourpeoples.Andthisrelatesinno
smallparttoourcooperationinmattersregardingsecurityandstrategicstability.Wewould
verymuchlikeourJapanesecolleaguestosettheirforeignpoliticalcourseontheirown.
Question:Whoarehardertodealwith,WesternorEasterndiplomats?
SergeyLavrov:Asforwhatit'sliketodealwithWesternandEasterndiplomats,ifby
EasternyoumeanAsiaandAfrica,Iwouldsaythateverythingdependsontheperson.
ThereareWesterncolleagueswhopretendtobeunawarewhentheyhavenothingtosay,
oractverystraightforwardly,andthereareourChineseorJapanesepartners,whoare
morewell-versedandbetterprepared.Italldependsontheperson.
ThestyleofdiplomacyinAsiaslightlydiffers,ofcourse,fromthatintheWest.Itismore
delicate,subtle,refinedandlessrude.Earlier,onlytheUnitedStatesdictateditswillto
everyoneandstilldoes.Notlongago,USPresidentBarackObamasaidthattheUnited
Statesshoulddetermineallglobalrulesbyitself,whiletherest,includingChina,whichhe
singledout(butevidentlyRussiaaswell),shouldobeythoserules.Unfortunately,thislong-
standingdiseasewillbehardtocure,butitwillpass.Regrettably,Europeisfollowingsuit,
resortingtosimilarmethodsandadoptingsimilarhabits,goingstraighttosanctionsatthe
firstsignoftrouble.Earlier,thiswascharacteristiconlyoftheUS.Itwillallsortitselfout
overtime.
Question:Onefifthofthemorethanathousandquestionswehavereceivedfromour
audiencesconcernsUkraine.TheMinskprocesswaslaunchedoverayearago.Many
believethatitisslippingandwillnotproduceanypositiveresults.Isthereanyhopeforthe
MinskPackagetobeimplemented?
SergeyLavrov:Ofcourse,thereisstillhope.Moreover,wemustdemandits
implementation,justaswehavebeendoing.TheMinskAgreementswerecoordinated
throughverydifficulttop-leveltalksandweresubsequentlysignedbyKiev,Donetsk,
Lugansk,Russia,FranceandGermany.Theyaretheonlydocumentsthatspelloutthe
conflictingsides'obligationsandtheguaranteesofEuropeansandRussia.Wemustnot
allowtheseagreementstofollowthepathoftheagreementsignedbyViktorYanukovych,
ArsenyYatsenyuk,VitalyKlitschkoandOlegTyagnibokthenightofFebruary21,2014,in
thepresenceofandwitnessedbyrepresentativesofFrance,GermanyandPoland,onlyto
beviolatedtheverynextmorning.OurFrench,GermanandPolishcolleaguesshamefully
keptsilent.Ifweallowthosewhostagedthestatecoupandcurrentlyconstitutetheprimary
politicalforceintheUkrainianestablishmenttofollowsuitwiththeMinskPackage,allofus
willloseface,includingtheUNSecurityCouncil,whichapprovedthesignedMinsk
Agreementsintheircurrentform,withoutsuggestinganyamendments.
PresidentofUkrainePetrPoroshenkoandForeignMinisterPavelKlimkinmakeconflicting
statementsregardingtheircommitmenttotheMinskPackage,sayingonethingtotheir
peopleandtryingtoactmoreconstructivelyatmeetingswiththeirforeignpartners.We
hopethatatleastpartofthesestatementswillbeactedupon.Thesituationisverysimple.
Theyareagaindebatingwhatcamefirst,thehenortheegg,andwhatstepsshouldbe
takennext.SecurityhasunexpectedlybecomethekeyissueforPresidentPoroshenko.He
isnowtalkingnotonlyabouttheceasefirebutalsoaboutsomeinternationalforces
ensuringsecuritythroughoutDonbass.ThelatterisnotstipulatedintheMinskAgreements.
Donbasswillneveragree,andundertheMinskAgreements,absolutelyallstepstowardsa
settlementmustbecoordinatedwithDonbass.
Regardingsecurityonthedividingline,westandfirmlyforstrengtheningtheroleand
responsibilityoftheOSCEmission,forincreasingthenumberofitsobserverssothatthey
overseethecreationofasafedistancebetweentheconflictingparties,aswasagreed,and
alsomonitorthesides'permanentsiteswhereheavyweaponsarestored.Ultimately,you
candelaytheprocessindefinitelybytalkingendlesslyaboutinsufficientsecurity.Kiev
insiststhatpoliticalreformwillonlybeginwhensecurityismaintainedat100percentfor
severalweeksorevenmonths.Thisisunrealistic.Nothingofthekindhaseverbeen
achievedinanyotherconflict,withoutfirstsettlingallpoliticalaspects.Regardingthe
politicalaspects,alltheproverbialballsareinUkraine'scourt.Iamreferringprimarilytothe
specialstatusofDonbass,whichwassetforthintheMinskAgreementsandwhichnow
needstobeformalisedinalawandprotectedbytheconstitution.Thereisalsotheissueof
amnesty,becauseamnestymustbepartofthesettlementnowthatthetideintheconflict
hasturned.AlawonamnestyhasbeendraftedandadoptedbytheVerkhovnaRada
(parliament),butPresidentPoroshenkohasnotsignedit.Idon'tknowwhy.Wearetoldthat
amnestycanonlybeapprovedbasedonthe1996law,underwhichallsuspectsareto
applyforamnestyindividuallyandtheirapplicationswillbeheardbyUkrainiancourts
individually.Thisisnotwhatwehaveagreedupon,andthiswillcertainlypreventthe
implementationoftheMinskAgreements.Andlastly,electionsaretobeheldafter
Donbass'sspecialstatusisformalisedintheconstitutioninkeepingwiththelawon
amnesty.Alltheseissues-theelections,thelawonthisspecialstatusandtheamendment
totheconstitutioninkeepingwiththeMinskPackage,whichclearlystipulatesthis-mustbe
coordinatedwiththeconflict-affectedareasintheDonetskandLuganskregions.
Noneoftheabovehasbeendone,despitetheeffortsmadewithintheContactGroupwhere
directdialoguebetweenKiev,DonetskandLuganskisonlypossible,andwithinthe
NormandyFormat,whichcannotreplacetheContactGroupnomatterhowmuchKiev,or
evenBerlinandParis,maywantthis.Weareawareoftheirmoodandhaveheard
proposalsthatthefourparties-France,Germany,RussiaandUkraine-negotiatea
settlement,afterwhichRussiawillbeexpectedtoconvinceDonbasstojointhe
negotiations.WhenweexplainthatadirectdialoguebetweenDonbassandKieviswhatis
needed,aGermanrepresentativeaskedcynicallyandratherinsolently,whydoweinsiston
directdialogueifitwouldtakeRussia15minutestobendDonbasstoitswill.Thisis
preciselywhathesaid.
Question:ItwouldbebetteriftheybentKiev.
SergeyLavrov:ThisisexactlywhatIplannedtosayinconclusionofmyanswertoyour
question.IbelievethatnotonlytheGermans,French,manyothersinEuropeandthe
UnitedStatesseethatKievisavoidingthecommitmentsmadebythePresidentofUkraine.
Question:IhavebeenworkinginDonbasssincethebeginningandwitnessedtheMay11
referendum.ItisveryhardtoexplaintopeoplewhytheCrimeareferendumwasrecognised
andnotthereferendumintheDonetskandLuganskrepublicsthatwasasfairandsincere
asinCrimeaandtookplaceinthepresenceofjournalists.
Wehavereceivedphonecallsonthissubject:
WhyhasRussiabeenpayinglessattentiontoUkraine'ssoutheast?IsdevastatedDonbass
notasgoodastheblossomingCrimea?
I'mcallingfromDonetsk.Don'tgiveuponDonbass.ThisisRussianlandwhereRussian
peoplelive.Wearefacingahardship,andarewaitingforyourhelp.Wewon'tsurvive
withoutit.Please,don'tgiveuponus.
Whydoesn'tRussiamakeastatementtotheeffectthatifUkrainecontinuestosabotage
theMinskAgreements,RussiawillhavetoofficiallyrecognisetheDonetskandLugansk
people'srepublicsandenterintotreatieswiththem,aswithAbkhaziaandSouthOssetia?
SergeyLavrov:First,wehaven'tgivenuponsoutheastUkraine,andalwaysrememberit.
Weareproactiveinsupportingit,andnotjustpolitically.Theseeffortsincludehumanitarian
aidandinitiativestoresolveeconomicissuesandtoensureadequatelivingconditions,
includingissuesthatFranceandGermanyhadpromisedtoaddress.Theyofferedtomake
thebankingsystemoperational,butwereunabletodoso,andacknowledgedit.Thisgoes
tosaythatyoushouldputyourtrustinpartners,butrelyonyourself.Russiaisinvolvedin
resolvingthisandotherissuesrelatedtothelivingconditionsinDonbass,andwillcontinue
doingso.
AmongtheprovisionsoftheMinskAgreementsonspecialstatusforDonbass,thereisthe
righttodirectandunrestrictedeconomicandotherrelationswiththeRussianFederation.
ThisisakeycomponentthatenabledbothRussiaandDonetsktosupporttheMinsk
Agreements.
Asforthereferendums,youareawareoftheconditionsinwhichthereferendumwasheld
inCrimeaandhowithappenedintheDonetskandLuganskregions.AftertheDonbass
referendum,theleadersoftheseself-proclaimedrepublicsdidnotrefusetohavea
dialoguewithKiev.ItwasthisdialoguethatledtotheMinskPackage.
Question:Theyweretalkingaboutindependence.
SergeyLavrov:LetmereiteratethattheyhaveneverrefusedtotalktoKiev.Itistruethat
theyproclaimedindependence,whilesayingthattheywereopentonegotiations.Russia,
GermanyandFrancesupportedthisconversation,whichpavedthewayfortheMinsk
Agreements.Youcanslamthedoorandfollowtheexampleofthosewhothreaten
recognition,sanctionsandthelikewhilebeingunabletousediplomaticandpoliticaltools.I
stronglybelieveanapproachlikethistobecounterproductive.Thiswouldprovideapretext
totheWesttostoppressuringKiev,beitverymoderately.Kievisunderpressure.Theyare
noteagertosaysoinpublic,butwhentheytalktoUkrainiansbehindcloseddoors(we
knowthisforsure),theyarequitetoughindemandingthatalltheagreementsreachedin
Minskbehonoured.
Ithinkthatitisveryimportanttoensurethatthedocumentsthatweresignedandapproved
bytheSecurityCouncilareimplemented,evenifitservesnootherpurposethandiscipline.
Weareinauniquesituation.Thereiscurrentlynowaythatthisdocumentcanbe
challengedbyanythingelse,andnooneistryingtocounteritwithanyotherdocument.It
cannotbecontested.Ifwenowsaythatourpatienceisupandthatwe'llgotheotherway,
theywilljustsay:fine,goahead.Inthatcase,theWestwouldstopexertingpressureonthe
Ukrainianauthorities.
DonbassisnottheonlyreasonforpressuringUkraine.TheOSCEmissionmandate
extendstoallofUkraine.Russiaregularlyinsiststhatthemissionissuereportsnotjust
aboutDonbassandthedemarcationline,butalsoonotherUkrainianregions.Horrible
thingsarehappeningthere.EventhoughourOSCEcolleaguesmakethingslookbetter
thantheyactuallyare,theystillacknowledgeviolationsofminorityrights,includingof
Hungarians,andmafiapermeatingregionslikeTranscarpatie.InmanycasesVerkhovna
RadaMPsarebehindtheorganisedcrime,eventhoughthereportsfailtomentionit.
Itisforthatreasonthatweneedtopreservethislegalandinternationalframeworkand
safeguarditinallpossiblewaysfromattemptstoundermineitfromwithinorfromthe
outside.
Question:IwouldliketocontinueaboutMaidan.IworkedinUkraineforeightyearsandsaw
theMaidaneventsunfoldwithmyowneyes.Ithinkitwasanoutrightfailureasfaras
Russiandiplomacyisconcerned.BackinApril2013,KomsomolskayaPravdawrotethat
thegeneralmoodinGaliciawastogotowaragainsttheRussians.Theydidnothingto
concealtheirplans.Wewroteaboutit,butnobodypaidattention.Allpro-Russianpolitical
observersthatworkedinUkrainebackthensaidthattheywereunabletoinfluenceinany
wayRussia'sAmbassadortoUkraineMikhailZurabovormeetwithhim.Meetingswiththe
Ambassadorareheldonceayear,onJune12,duringRussiaDaycelebrations,usually
accompaniedbyvodkaandbears.Therearenootheropportunities.Russiawasnotready
whenMaidanbrokeout,andjustlostoutinthissituation.Wehavereceivedmany
questionsonwhyRussia'sAmbassadortoUkraineMikhailZurabovisstillinoffice.
SergeyLavrov:Idon'tthinkthatthisisamatterthatcanbediscussedinpublic.
Question:Whynot?ItconcernsRussia'sinternationaldiplomacy.
SergeyLavrov:AmbassadorMikhailZurabovcanandwillreporttotheRussianForeign
MinistryandtheStateDumaoftheRussianFederalAssembly.I'mnotsurethatI
understandtheessenceofyourquestion.
Question:WhatIwanttosayisthatwewerenotreadyforMaidan.
SergeyLavrov:ThisiswhatI'mtalkingabout.YousaythatwelostatMaidan.Ifyouareso
sureaboutthisandifitisoftensaidthatRussiandiplomacyfailed,whatalternativesare
implied?Whatshouldwehavedone,ifpeoplearesosurethatthiswasourfailure?
Question:TheUSEmbassydidnotscrimponpropagandaagainstusandpaidforsites
costingathousanddollarseach(peanutsforsuchalargecountryasours).Thesesites
trashedourreputationforadecade.TheAmericansdidnotconcealthattheyspent$5
billionforpropagandaagainstRussiaandostensiblyforfreedomofspeech.Our
embassieslackinitiativeingeneral.ThevoiceofanAmericanambassadorisalwaysheard
andthevoiceofoursisalwayssilent-withfewexceptions.IcanciteLebanonasan
examplewhereRussianAmbassadorAlexanderZasypkinisdoingagreatjob.Thesituation
inLebanonchangeddramaticallywhenhewastherebecausepeoplecontinuouslylistened
tohisinterviews.Ourambassadorsandembassiesarelikebunkerstheyliveintheirown
littleworldsanddonotleave.
Ortakeanotherexample.ThecurrentUkrainianambassadortoCroatiasimply"raped"the
localmedia.HewasevengivenacolumninanewspaperwherehesmearsRussiaona
dailybasis.
Ourpeopledonotspeakout.Wherearethey?Whyaretheyhiding?Whydon'ttheyofferto
dointerviews?Thisisabigproblem.IworkinallkindsofcountriesandeverywhereIgoI
amtoldaboutgatheringsdevotedtoAlexanderPushkinandPyotrTchaikovsky.Whois
interestedinthemnow?
SergeyLavrov:IcannotagreewiththisbecauseRussianambassadorsintheUnited
States,Lebanon,IraqandSyriaandRussia'sspecialenvoysattheUNinNewYorkandthe
UNOfficeinGenevaareknownasnotjustpeoplewhoregularlyappearonTVbutwho
workextremelyhard.
Youshouldunderstandonething:appearingonthefrontpagesofnewspapers,television
andradioisfarfromalltheydo,andinmostcasesit'snotthemainpartoftheirwork.You
mentionedpayingfordifferentsites.AsfortheUSEmbassyinKiev,therewerenotjust
paymentsbutawholefloorofthesecurityservicewasandisstilloccupiedbyFBIorCIA
employeesorbothplustheNationalSecurityAgency.
Whatwasthealternative?Werewealsosupposedtopaypoliticalscientistsforworkingon
somesites?WhenthethugsshowedupontheMaidanwedemandedthattheyobeythe
UkrainianConstitution.Theydidn'twanttoandasaresultreachedanagreementwith
ViktorYanukovychthroughoppositionfigures.ThisagreementwassignedonFebruary21
andactuallyrequiredthatYanukovychgiveuphispresidentialpowerstouseforceandhis
monopolyontheuseofforce,andagreetoearlyelections.Inotherwords,hadthis
agreementbeencarriedout,hewouldhavebeenremoveddemocraticallyalongtimeago
(needlesstosay,hewouldn'thavebeenre-electedaseveryoneassumes),andsimilar
peoplewouldhavebeeninpowernowbutwithoutsomanyvictimsandsomuch
destruction.Whatareyousuggesting?Whenthesethugsbegantocommitexcesseson
theMaidan,shouldwehavesentintroopsorwhat?Pleaseexplain.
Question:Wewereholdingallthecards.
SergeyLavrov:Whatdoyoumean?
Question:AdulyelectedpresidentfledtoRussia.Amilitarycouptookplaceinacountry
thatisclosetous,afriendofours.Thepresidentaskedustohelp.Wehadeveryrightto
helpgetthingsundercontrol..Abunchofthugsseizedpower-thisisanarmedcoup.Why
didn'twedothis?
Iwilltellyouwhy-becausewekeepclingingtoatheoryofstatesovereigntythatbindsour
hands.TheAmericanshavedevisedatheoryofhumanitarianintervention,whichimpliesan
obligationtointervene.Meanwhile,wekeeptalkingaboutsovereigntyandhavealready
becomeentrappedbyit.Wedonotproduceideologies.Wealsohavetherightto
intervene.
SergeyLavrov:Letusavoidjargon.Tellmedirectly,doyouthinkweshouldhavesentin
troops?
Question:Yes,weshouldhave.Itwasourdutytogetinvolved,throughhumanitarian
intervention.
SergeyLavrov:Idisagree.DoyouwantwarbetweenRussiansandUkrainians?
Question:Itwouldn'tbewar.
SergeyLavrov:Waragainsttheirownpeoplewasengineeredbythosewhomthecoup
d'etatbroughttothetop.IthinkthatRussiansandUkrainiansareasinglepeople.Ifyou
thinkweshouldmakewaronourownpeople,Icategoricallydisagree.
Question:Itwouldn'tbeunleashingwar,butdealingwithagangthatseizedpower.
SergeyLavrov:Nowthisganghasthesupportofahugenumberofpeople,someofthem
wearingmilitaryuniforms,othersnotsufficeittomentionthenationalbattalions,whatever
youmightthinkofthem.Therearetensofthousandsofsuchpeople.Soyouare
suggestingthatwedealwithtensofthousandsofUkrainians?
Question:Theygatheredtensofthousandsonlyafterwegavethematterupandletthings
takecareofthemselves.
SergeyLavrov:Thearmysworeallegiancetothenewregime,andthenewregimemight
haveorderedthisarmytofighttheRussianArmy?That'sanawfulidea,Ican'tevenbring
myselftoimagineit.
Question:Therewasnewslastweek,whichalarmedmanyofourreadersandlisteners,
concerningNadezhdaSavchenko.Readersaskwhatyouthinkofthereleaseofacriminal
whokilledourjournalists.TheythinkshewillsnatcheveryopportunitytoprovokeRussia.
Havewedonetherightthing?
SergeyLavrov:Ithinkwehave.Wehadtobringourcitizensback,andwedid.Itisour
principledpositiontoexchangeallforall,notonlyinsuchsituationsasthatofSavchenko
andourcitizens,butalso,andmoreimportantly,fortheimplementationoftheMinsk
Agreements.IthinkitshouldbeUkraine'sownheadacheifSavchenkoplaysdirtytrickson
us(butthen,whowouldnotplaydirtytricksonusinUkraine?Therearepracticallyno
Ukrainianpoliticiansleftwhowouldspeakwithusnormally).
Question:It'strue.
SergeyLavrov:Sheisaveryparticularwoman.Shelookswell-nourished,forthatmatter.I
thinkeveryoneseesnowwhatherhystericalhungerstrikeswereworth.Shewantsto
becomepresident,makewaronus,andshewantssomethingelsetoo.
Question:Meanwhile,shewalksaroundeverywherebarefoot.
Question:AllcountriesoftheMiddleEastarecloselymonitoringtheRussian-Turkish
confrontation.LocalpoliticalexpertsrememberwellRussianPresidentVladimirPutin's
warningthatthey"wouldnotgetawaywithtomatoes."Now,however,thingshavetakenan
unexpectedturn.Afewdaysagowewerethefirsttosaythatwewouldliketoresume
contacts.ThismightbeveryChristianbutwhatabouttheprincipleof"aneyeforaneyeand
atoothforatooth?"MyEasternfriendsandpoliticalexpertsaskthefollowing.Youwerenot
theonewhobeganthewarwithTurkeyandyouarenottoblameforit.TheSovietUnion
wouldneverhaveletanyonegounpunishedforoneofitsplanesbeingshotdown.Whyare
theRussiansnowthefirsttooffertheolivebranch?Orientalpoliticalscientistsseethisas
RussiabeinghumiliatedbyIslam.
SergeyLavrov:Let'snottakethisanyfurther.Itislikescoringagoalonyourself.Youor
yourcorrespondentsmakeassessmentsthatarefundamentallyuntrue,andproceeding
fromtheirownerror,drawconclusionsonhowtoevaluateouractions.
WehaveneversaidthatwewouldofferTurkeytheolivebranchoranythingelse.Why
wouldwe?WesaidthatTurkeyshouldapologiseandcompensatethelossesincurredasa
resultofthiscriminalact,thismilitarycrime.WhenPresidentVladimirPutinwasasked
whetherTurkeywastakinganysteps,hesaidthattheyareadvancingalongdifferent
channels.
Question:Arewereadytorestorerelations?
SergeyLavrov:No,PresidentVladimirPutinsaidthatwearereadytoreviewthepossibility.
But,first,Turkeyshoulddowhatit'ssupposedtodo.Butwhyisthisbroughtupoutof
context?
Ifyouonlywanttoseeapanicky,defeatistmoodamongRussianleadersthenit'llbea
difficultconversation.See,youdon'thavetobeinsultingtoshowthatyoudisapproveof
yourpartner'sactions,andthisiswhatwasdone.And,ofcourse,theydidn'tjustgetaway
withatomatobanthereismuchmoretoit.Sonowtheyaretryingtocontactusthrough
varioussecurechannelsandaresuggestingthatcertaincommitteesbeestablished.In
December,whentheTurkishForeignMinistermetwithmeinpassingattheOSCE,he
suggestedthatweestablishacommitteeoragroupthatwouldincludediplomats,military
expertsandintelligenceofficers,andIdon'tknowwhomelse.
Question:Havetheymadeanyheadwayoverthepastsixmonths?
SergeyLavrov:Ofcoursenot.Soourstanceremainsunchanged.
Question:Wearedemandingthreethings-anofficialapology,liabilityforthoseresponsible
andcompensationfordamages,right?
SergeyLavrov:Ofcourse.
Question:RegardingSyria,IhavevisitedSyrianKurdistan.Syrian,IraqiandTurkishKurds
wanttoknowwhetherRussiahascometostayorwhetherthiswillbeatemporary
operation.TheywantRussiatostay,soasecondcentreofpowercanemergeintheMiddle
East.Arewetheretostay?
SergeyLavrov:AcentreofpowerhasalreadybeenestablishedintheMiddleEast.Idon't
knowwhetherthisisthesecondor,maybefirstcentreofpower.Yousee,theUS-led
coalitionwhichisperceivedbymanyasthefirstcentreofpowerissimplymarkingtime.I
spokewithUSSecretaryofStateJohnKerrytheotherdayandaskedwhytheyhave
stoppedbombingtheterroristsandwhytheyhavenotflownasinglecombatmissionto
preventtheillegalshipmentofoiltoTurkey.
Question:Andwhatdidhesay?
SergeyLavrov:Hesaidtheyweredoingthis.Theyareonceagainguidedbythefaultylogic
thatterroristsaremixedwithfriendlyoppositionforces,thatyouhitthisfriendlyopposition,
whileattackingterrorists,andthatthisshouldbeavoided.ButIremindedhimthat,inlate
February,theyhadpledgedtousthatunitsconsideredpatrioticandloyalbythemand
cooperatingwiththemwouldberemovedfrompositionsoccupiedbyJabhatal-Nusra.Over
threemonthshavepassed,andnothinghasbeendone.Theyhavenowaskedusfor
severalmoredaysbeforetheirplan,underwhicheveryonewhohasnotjoinedthe
ceasefireisalegitimatetarget,regardlessofwhethertheyarelistedamongtheterroristsor
not,swingsintoaction.Theyaskedforseveralmoredaysinordertorespond,andthese
severaldaysexpirethisweek.
Atthispoint,thecoalitionisalmostidle,withmilitantsandequipmentcontinuingtomovevia
theTurkishborder.AnoffensivewhichisbannedbyvariousagreementsandUNSecurity
Councilresolutionsisobviouslybeingprepared.Theyaretellingusthattheso-called
"good"unitsarereadytostopviolatingtheceasefirebutthatapoliticalprocessshouldbe
launchedforthispurpose.Membersofadelegationthathasbeenestablishedprimarilywith
Turkishsupport-theso-calledHighNegotiationCommittee-aresayingthattheycannot
takepartinthetalksbecauseSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadhasnotresigned.This
circusacthasbeendraggingonforalongtime.
Itoldmycolleaguethat,honestly,inouropinion,theyaresimplytryingtomisleadus.He
swearsthatthisisnotso,andthatthemilitaryauthoritieswill,atlast,startcoordinatingtheir
operations.Irepeat,wehavealreadytoldthemstraightthatthisdoesn'tsuitus,andthatwe
cannolongerlistentothesestories.WehaveobligationswiththelegitimateSyrian
Governmentandauthorities,wearethereattheirrequest,andnooneinvitedthecoalition.
TheUS-ledcoalitionwasinvitedtoIraq,anditwasnotinvitedtoSyria.ButSyrianleaders
havesaid(andtheUSwasinformedaboutthis)that,ifthecoalitioncoordinatesits
operationswiththeRussianAerospaceForces,thentheywouldnotofficiallyprotestand
wouldconsiderthemtobeourpartnersinthefightagainstterrorism.Tobehonest,thisis
theonly,althoughfragile,legalfoundationforthecoalition'spresence.
EveryoneadmitsthattheinitialRussianoperationanditsfirstfewmonthsdrastically
improvedthesituation.TurkeyandourWesterncolleagueswantthistidetostopand
probablytoreverseitself.Theydon'twanttoseeSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadremain
inpowersimplybecausetheysaidfiveyearsagothathemuststepdown,andtheynow
carenothingaboutthepeopleofSyria.Buteveryonenowunderstandsthattherewillbeno
politicalprocesswithoutal-Assad.TheUNSecurityCouncilresolutionandvarious
decisionsonSyria,adoptedsince2012withourproactiveinvolvement,containnodemand
orhintthatSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadmustresign.Onthecontrary,theysaythat
thepeopleofSyriaalonehavearighttodecidetheirfuture,andthatthepoliticalprocess
shouldinvolveallforcesofSyriansocietywithoutexception,includingethnic,political
forces,religiousdenominationsandalloppositiongroups.
Twomonthsago,PresidentVladimirPutinannouncedadecisiontoscaledownRussia's
militarypresenceinSyriaafterobjectives,aimingtopreventthestate'sgradual
disintegrationthatwasleadingtotheseizureofDamascusbyterrorists,hadbeenmostly
accomplished.Iassureyouthatthereareenoughforcesandresourcesinthecountryto
neutralisethecurrentterroristthreats.Weareaddressingthisissue.Itisonlyimportant
thatourUScolleaguescomprehendtheirresponsibility.Ibelievethatweareseriously
pressingthemagainstthewall.Butitistruethattheyarecapable,craftyandevasive
people.
IfyouwatchnewsreportsaboutthedeploymentofRussianmilitaryunitsthere,youwillsee
thattheydidnotjustarrive,pitchtents,dosomeshooting,removetheirtentsandleave.
Thisshouldansweryourquestionastowhetherwehavecometostayornot.
Question:SoisUSSecretaryofStateJohnKerryabletogiveyouananswertoour
president'squestion:"Doyourealisenowwhatyou'vedone?"
SergeyLavrov:YouknowI'vespokentohimquitealotaboutit.USSecretaryofStateJohn
Kerryisaverynicepersontotalkto.SinceJanuary,wehavehadover30telephone
conversationsandmetfourtimesinperson.Iamsuretherewillbemoremeetingsand
telephonetalks.
ButwhenwehavetheopportunitytodiscussthesituationinSyria,heinsiststhat
somethinghastobedonenow.Iinturnneedtoremindhimofthestepstakenthusfar:in
June2012,USSecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,European,Chinese,ArabandTurkish
representativesandIsignedtheGenevaCommunique.Thedocumentstipulatedtheneed
tolaunchatransitionalpoliticalprocesstoformajointgovernment-and-oppositionstructure
basedontheirmutualconsent.ThenRussiabroughtthispapertotheUNSecurityCouncil
forapprovalbuttheAmericansdeclinedtosanctionitbecauseitdidn'tcontainaprovision
allowingthemtooustSyrianPresidentBasharAssadorintroducesanctionsagainsthimif
hefailstoleave.Iaskedhim:"Wasitsupposedtobeincluded?Wespentsevenhoursin
Genevadiscussingit?!"ThentheAmericansbluntlyrefusedtoapprovetheCommunique.A
yearlater,thechemicalweaponsthreatturnedup.Wehelpedtoresolvethesituationand
insistedthattheresolutionestablishingtheRussian-Americanplan,withtheconsentofthe
Syriangovernment,toremoveandeliminatechemicalweaponsshouldincludeasection
approvingtheGenevaCommunique.NowtheysaySyrianPresidentBasharAssadis
violatingtheCommunique.ItisexactlylikeinDonbass-aprincipleofdirectdialogue.But
theyprefertoavoidit.InDonbass,theauthoritiesevadethedialoguewhileherethe
oppositionavoidsit.ThisisourWesterncolleaguesforyou.
DuringthediscussionswithUSSecretaryofStateJohnKerry,Iaskedhimwhytheywere
makingthesamemistakesastheydidinIraqin2003.Hesaidhewasasenatorthenand
votedagainstthemove.Great,fine.BarackObamaalsovotedagainst.Yes,Iraqwasa
mistake.AndwhataboutLibya?ItwasunderHillaryClintonandwasalsoamistake.They
violatedtheUNSecurityCouncil'smandatethatsealedtheairspacetopreventairstrikes-
buttheystillbombedthecountryfromtheairandeventuallybrutallymurderedLibyan
PresidentMuammarGaddafi,nomatterwhatsortofpersonhewas.Thiswasalsoawar
crime.AndnowLibyaisfloodedwithterroristssupplyingmilitants,weaponsallthewayup
toMali,theCentralAfricanRepublicandChad.Butthemistakewas,Kerrysaid,notin
violatingtheUNmandatebutinfailingtodeploylandtroopsinthewakeoftheairstrikes,to
consolidatethesituationandsuppresstheterrorists.Iremindedhimofhowtroopswere
broughtintoAfghanistanandIraqearliertocombatterroristsandhowtheyhadtopullout,
leavingthesecountriesindisarray,asZhvanevskywouldsay,likeawomanwhohasbeen
leftindistress.AfghanistanandIraqwereabandonedinafarworsesituation:theformeris
onthebrinkofdisintegration,whilethelatterhasbeentornapartbythecivilwar.The
Americansagreeitwasamistakebutprefertoletbygonesbebygones.Theywantusto
followtheiragendabutwealsohaveourownagendainSyria.Itisclearthatwemusttryto
coordinateourapproacheswithatleastsomerespectforthelessonshistoryhastaught
us.
Question:TheTurkishKurdshaveurgedRussiatomakepublicitspositionontheongoing
Kurdishgenocide.Forexample,thecityofDiyarbakirhasbeenfullydestroyed,alongwith
manyothercities.AcivilwarisunderwayinTurkey,yetRussiahasnotinterceded.
TheSyrianKurdswonderwhyRussiaissupplyingarmsto[IraqiKurdishleader]Massoud
BarzanibutnottotheSyrianKurdswhoarereallyfightingISIS.IraqiKurdistanistheUS
playground,andMassoudBarzaniisapro-TurkeypoliticianwhohasallowedTurkishtroops
toenterIraqiKurdistan.
GuerrillasfromtheKurdistanWorkers'Party,whoarefightingintheQandilMountains,have
alsoaskedforassistance,attheleastbydiplomaticmeansastheSovietUniondid,ifwe
can'thelpthemmilitarily.
SergeyLavrov:Weareprovidingthiskindofassistance.Itispossiblethatweshouldspeak
aboutthismoreoften,althoughtheForeignMinistry'sspokesperson,MariaZakharova,
regularlymentionstheissueoftheKurdishgenocideinTurkeyduringherbriefings.
Inprinciple,weoftenspeakaboutTurkey'spositionontheKurds.Weonlydemandone
thing-thatTurkeywithdrawthetroopsitsenttoIraqallegedlytostrengthenIraq's
sovereignty,asformerTurkishPrimeMinisterAhmetDavutogluclaimed.Thisis
unacceptable.IbelievethatwhatTurkeyisdoingdeservesbroaderpublicattentionfromour
Westernpartners.Theybelievethatthe"allies"willsettletheproblembetweenthemselves.
Thisisnotagoodposition.WhenTurkeyviolatedGreece'sairspace,followingwhich
Russiamadeseveraltoughstatements,NATOSecretaryGeneralJensStoltenbergsaid
that"bothareNATOallies"whocansettletheirproblemthemselves.First,whatabout
Cyprus,whichisnotaNATOmemberandwhoseairspaceTurkeyregularlyviolates?
Second,whatkindofapositionisthis?Doesitmeanthatyouarefreetodoanythingyou
wantifyouareaNATOmember?TheEUhasthesameproblem:EUmembersarenot
accountabletotheCouncilofEurope.Theysaytheywillonlyconsiderhumanrights
violationsofthenon-EUmembersbecausetheyhaveaspecialprocedureforviolations
withintheEUcountries.
WewillcontinuetoinsistthatTurkeystopitsarbitraryactivitiesinIraq,primarilywithregard
totheKurds.Apartfromobviousneo-Ottomanaspirations,therearealsoeconomic
considerations:Turkeyisseekingtogainafoothold[inIraqiKurdistan]andwaitforthe
outcomeofthebattleforMosulinordertotakecontrolofitsoilfields.AndthenTurkeywill
waitfortheinternationalcommunity'sreaction.Iraqcouldfallapartbythen,butTurkeywill
alreadybeentrenchedthere.Thisisobvious.Therefore,Ifullyagreewithyouandyour
Kurdishdialoguepartners.
AsforIraqiKurdistan,wesendweaponstofightagainstterroriststoIraqandIraqiKurdistan
withtheagreementandconsentoftheIraqigovernment.Thisistheonlyprinciplebywhich
weoperate.
TheSyrianKurdsarereceivingairsupportandotherkindsofassistance.Frankly,wehave
beenactively,andnotentirelyunsuccessfully,workingtoconvincetheSyriangovernment
tocooperatewiththeKurdsinsteadoftryingtorestricttheKurds'futureroleintheSyrian
state.
Ofcourse,nobodywashappywhentheDemocraticUnionParty(PYD)declaredafederal
region,butitwastheKurds'reactiontoTurkey'sposition.WehaveagreedthattheGeneva
talksonSyriamustbeinclusiveintermsofparticipants.However,thePYD,which
represents15percentofSyria'spopulation,hasbeenbannedformthetalksbecauseone
country-Turkey-vetoeditsparticipation.Whenweexpressedouroutrageoverthematter,
sayingthattheKurdsshouldbeallowedtoattendthetalks,ourAmericanandother
partnersandtheUNSecretary-General'sSpecialEnvoyforSyria,StaffandeMistura,told
usthatiftheKurdscometoGenevatheRiyadhgroup(HighNegotiationsCommittee)
wouldleaveandstopcooperating.Butthatgroupdidn'tcooperatebutwalkedoutofthe
talksanyway.AndMrStaffandeMisturadidnotprotestagainstthis,althoughwehad
instructedhimtoholdthenextroundoftalksbeforeRamadan.Heplanstoresumethe
talksintwoweeks,orevenafterRamadan,becauseofultimatumsadvancedbythiswilful
party.TheythoughttheKurds'presenceatthetalkswouldhaveanegativeeffect,butthe
effectwasthesameevenwithouttheKurds.The[opposition]hasshownitstruecolours.
Therehasbeenasecondcaseofdesertion:MohammedAlloushfromJayshal-Islamhas
walkedoutofthepeacetalks.Jayshal-Islamisaterroristandanextremistgroup.However,
attemptshavebeenmadetojustifyitsactions,possiblybecauseJayshal-Islam's
operationswereexpectedtoweakenPresidentBasharAssad'spositions.Thetacticof
usingterroriststoattainone'sgoalsanddecidingtheirfateaftertheyhavedonetheirbitisa
dead-endstrategy.Also,severalmembersoftheHighNegotiationsCommitteewho
representedthemoderateoppositionhaveleftthepeacetalks,too.Ibelievethatallthe
radicaloppositionnegotiatorswilleventuallyleavethetalks.Yetweneedtoactfast,andthe
KurdsmustparticipateintheGenevaprocess.Discussingtheconstitutionoranyother
structurethatshouldbeformedbytheSyriangovernmentjointlywiththeoppositionwithout
theKurdswillresultinthecollapseofthetalks.
Question:YouareoneofthethreemostrespectedpoliticalfiguresinRussia.Whatare
yourplansforthefuture?
SergeyLavrov:Tobehonest,Ihavenevermadeplansformylife,rather,thingshavejust
happenedoftheirownaccord.Iwasofferedworkinvariousplaces,butallthroughthe
ForeignMinistry.First,IhadaproposaltoworkinSriLanka,thenitwasintheDepartment
forInternationalEconomicOrganisations.WhenAndreiKozyrevleftfortheRSFSRForeign
Ministry,thelatedeputyminister,VladimirPetrovsky,offeredmethepostofheadoftheUN
Departmentin1990.Afterthe[August1991]coupandbeforetheBelavezhaAccords,
AndreiKozyrevinvitedmetojointheRSFSRForeignMinistryandbecomehisdeputy.This
isnotasecretnowandIdon'tthinkhewillmindmyspeakingofit.IsaidthenthatIwasnot
readyforsuchamoveanddidnothavethedesireinanycase.Heaskedmewhynot.I
saidthatIhadonlybeendepartmentheadforayearandhadbroughtwithmepeoplewhom
IknewandonwhomIcouldrely.HeproposedthatIbringthemallwithmeintotheRSFSR
ForeignMinistry.Isaidthattheywouldn'tleave.Heaskedwhynot,andIsaidthattheyhad
swornanoathtoservetheircountry.Inquiteemotionaltones,hesaidthatwewereall
hidingourselvesbehindtheSovietUnion'ssign,sittingthere,scared,withnoideaofwhat
mighthappennext,andmeanwhile,hehadallthesedelegationscoming.Youmightrecall
thatvariousWesternvisitorswerebusydoingtheroundsforalltheSovietrepublicsback
then.IremindedhimofthejointagreementbetweenMikhailGorbachevandBorisYeltsin
thattheSovietForeignMinistrywouldprovideassistancetotheSovietrepublics'foreign
ministries.Wehelpedthemiftheyneededinterpreters,helpedthemwiththeirtransport
needs.Theforeignministriesinthedifferentrepublicswerestilljusttinyatthattimeand
couldnotcopewithallthetasksathand,butwehelpedthemout.
Ilefttheoffice.AndreiKozyrevwasupset,unhappy,butevenso,noonefiredmeafter
thoseevents,andinApril1992,VitalyChurkinandIwereappointeddeputyforeign
ministersovernightwithoutourhavingtoaskforanything.
TheonlytimethatIturneddownanofferwaswhenYevgenyPrimakovsuggestedthatI
movetoWashington.Ihadalreadyspent18monthsinNewYorkatthatmoment.Hewasa
greatman,butIhadnochoicebuttoarguewithhimthen.WhenItriedtoturndownthe
offer,hesaidIwaspoliticallyignorantandsimplydidnotunderstandthesituation.Iasked
himwhyhewassoinsistentIshouldtakethisjob.HesaidhethoughtIwasthebest
person.IaskedhimwhatwassospecialaboutWashingtonthatIoughttogothere.Hesaid
Washingtonwasthemostimportantplace.IaskedpermissiontoquoteYevgenyPrimakov
thegreatthinker,theonewhosaidthat"weareseeingtheemergenceofamultipolarworld,
whichwillbecomeacounterbalancetotheunipolarworld".Isaidthatthismultipolarworld
wasindeedtakingshape,butnotinWashington,whereifyouneededtodosomething,you
firsthadtomakeanappointment,withoutbeingsurethatyou'dactuallygetone,butinNew
York,whereyoujusthavetoentertheUNbuildingforeveryonetocomerunningyourway,
bringingyouinformation,peopleyouneedtotalktoandwhoneedtotalktoyou.Thereis
roomtomanoeuvreintheUN,becauseyouhave15peopleintheSecurityCouncil(five
permanentmembersand10non-permanentmembers),andyouhavetheGeneral
Assembly,whereyoucanthrowideasarounddirectly,withouthavingtogothrough
someoneelsefirst.YevgenyPrimakovreallywasagreatmanandheagreedwithmeinthe
endandleftmeinNewYork.
Question:Howcanwetranslateforeignpolicysuccessestothedomesticpoliticalstage?
DoyouthinkweshoulderectamonumenttoYevgenyPrimakov?PerhapsnotinMoscow,
butinoneoftheregions,inPerm,say?
SergeyLavrov:Asfarascombiningandinterlinkingforeignanddomesticpolicygoes,the
priorityistoguaranteesecurityandthebestpossibleeconomicconditionsforRussia's
development.ThisisourForeignPolicyConcept'smainpriorityandwearekeepingthis
sameobjectiveinplaceinthenewdraftoftheForeignPolicyConceptthatwearecurrently
preparingonPresidentVladimirPutin'sinstruction.Thismeansthatwemustensurean
environmentinwhichourbusinessdoesnotfacediscriminationandourcitizenscantravel
aroundtheworldwithoutfearofdiscriminationorunlawfulactsagainstthem.Sadly,wedo
notalwaysmanagetoguaranteethis.TheAmericans,forexample,literally'steal'our
peopleinviolationofthelawsofthecountriesonwhosesoiltheseabductionstakeplace.
ThiswasthecaseofViktorBout,KonstantinYaroshenko,RomanSeleznevanddozensof
otherpeople'snatched'fromEuropeandothercountries.
ButIamsurethatthisworkwillbringresults,andindeed,wearealreadystartingtoseethe
fruits.Ifsomecybercriminalisarrested,wewouldbethelasttotrytoprotecthim.Afterall,
thesepeoplestealmoneyinRussiaandabroad.Butheshouldbeputontrialhere.We
havetheRussian-USconsularconventionandotheragreementsthatprovideforthe
reciprocaltransferofsuspectsincriminalcases.Butthishasbecomeabigproblemnow.
Weareconcernedingeneralforthesafetyofourcitizenstravellingabroadfortourismor
simplyonprivatebusiness.Thisisanimportantaspectofourwork.
Anotheraspectofourworkistodoallwecantoensurethatgovernmentsincountries
wherewehaveintereststreatRussianbusinesswithgoodwillandfairness.Wealsohave
someconcreteresultsinthisarea.Ofcourse,thismustbereciprocalandbusinesshasto
beactiveintheseeffortstoo.Rosatom,forexample,worksveryactivelyinmanypartsof
theworldandhasarecordnumberoforders.Thisimmediatelyhelpstocreatealong-term,
stableandsolidbasefordevelopingstrategicrelationswiththecountryinquestion.The
nuclearenergysectorisalong-termsectorinvolvingbigprojectsandcovering
construction,training,andstorageandtreatmentofspentnuclearmaterial.
Weseeinthisworkachancetomakeuseofourcapabilitiesandourpossibilitiesfor
helpingwithdomesticreform,butofcourse,itisultimatelynottheForeignMinistry'sjobto
carryoutdomesticreformanddevelopment.
AsforYevgenyPrimakov,wealreadyhaveaprojectforerectingamonumenttohim.We
startedthinkingaboutthisideaimmediatelyafterthesadeventofhispassing.Inadditionto
thedecisionsPresidentVladimirPutinhasalreadytakenaboutimmortalisingMrPrimakov's
memory(thereistheYevgenyPrimakovmedalandtheYevgenyPrimakovscholarshipsfor
studyattheMoscowStateInstituteofInternationalRelations(MGIMO)andMoscowState
University,andhisnamehasbeengiventotheInstituteofWorldEconomyandInternational
Relations),wethinkthatitwouldbegoodtoraiseamonumenttohim,andIplantomake
thisproposaltothePresident.
Asforwheretodothis,MrPrimakovwasprimeminister,directoroftheForeignIntelligence
Service,foreignminister,andanacademician.Thereisthebuildingwherehelived,butwe
wouldratherseeamonumentonSmolenskayaSquare,inthesquarebetweenthe
BelgradeHotelandtheForeignMinistrybuilding.Thisisaplacewherepeoplewouldalways
betoseethemonumentandpayMrPrimakov'smemorytheirrespects.AsIsaythough,
thismatterhasnotbeenexaminedyet.ThisisthefirsttimeIhaveformulatedthisproposal
outloud.Perhapsitwouldhavebeenbettertomaketheofficialproposalfirst.
Tobecontinued...
[returntoContents]
#3
RossiyskayaGazeta
May25,2016
Russianexpertoutlinesforeignpolicyproposals
SergeiKaraganov,Russianforeignpolicy:newstage?-Groupofestablishedexpertshave
presentedtheirviewoftheprioritiesofRussianforeignpolicy
In2016itwillbe25yearssincethedisintegrationoftheSovietUnionandtheemergenceof
thenewRussiafromitsruins.Itispossibletosumuptheresults,andtheroadtothefuture
needstobeplanned.
AgroupofmembersoftheCouncilonForeignandDefencePolicy(SVOP)hasdecidedto
presenttothestateandsocietyitsvisionofRussia'snewforeignpolicy.Wealsoconsider
therevivalofacreativeforeignpolicydiscussiontobeuseful.Inaworldoftotal
propaganda,itiseasytobecomehostagetootherpeople'sandyourownmyths.Thekeen
Russiandebateofforeignpolicythatwasmaintainedinthe1990shelpedtopreventan
irrevocablesurrenderofpositionsoranattemptatsuicidalrevenge,anditpavedtheway
forareturntomorerealisticandnationallyorientedpolicies.Werememberwith"legitimate
satisfaction"thatourSVOP,"liberalinternationalists"asourveteranswerethencalled,
playedaprominentroleinthedebates.
SVOPhaspreparedpropositions,whichwearealsopresentingnow(seewww.svop.ru,
www.globalaffairs.ru).Thepropositionsconsistofananalysisofglobalandregionaltrends
andtheachievementsandfailuresofRussianpolicy,andtheycontainproposalsonforeign
policy,whichwethinkarebeneficial.Thearticlepresentsaverybriefsummaryofthelast
twosectionsofthepropositions.
Policyresults
Russianforeignpolicyofthepastdecadehasonthewholebeensuccessful,andithasat
timesbeenbrilliant.Ithasmettheworld'schallenges.Theweaklinkisthestagnationofthe
economy.Sofarforeignpolicyhascompensatedforthisweakness.Butthereservesof
suchcompensationareclosetodepletion.Militarymighthasbeenreconstitutedatanew
qualitativelevelandsofarwithtolerableexpenditure.Theresultisthat,albeitatahighcost,
theexpansionofWesternallianceshasbeenhaltedonterritoriesthatRussiaconsiders
vitallyimportantfromthepointofviewofsecurity.TheWesthasstarted,asdesired,to
adapttotheneedtotakeRussia'sinterestsintoaccount.Andthismeansthatafoundation
hasbeenlaidforahealthierandfairerrelationshipinthefuture.
BelatedlyandslowlytheeconomicandpartiallypoliticalturntowardsgrowingAsiahas
started,includingviathedevelopmentofSiberiaandtheFarEast.Arelationshipof
friendshipanddeepstrategicpartnershipwithChinahasbeenestablished.Rivalryin
CentralAsiahasbeensuccessfullyavoidedviaanagreementontheSilkRoadEconomic
Belt(EPShP)andtheYeAES[EurasianEconomicUnion].Greateropportunitieshavebeen
createdforextendingcooperationwiththeASEANcountries,Japan,andSouthKorea.
Asaresult,Russiahasadecentgeopoliticalpositionaheadofthenewroundof
development(ifandwhenitstarts).TheSovietUnionwasopposedbytheWestthroughout
theworldandbyChinaintheEast,andithadtomaintaintheexpensivesocialistcampand
the"socialist-orientedcountries"inthe"thirdworld".Russiaisfacinginevitable,butinthe
longtermlessacute,oppositiononlyintheWest.
IncomparisonwiththelateUSSRandearlyRussia,themoralandpoliticalconditionof
Russiansocietyhasalsochanged.InsteadofunbeliefandthedyingCommunistideology
ofthe1980s,andthesituationofthe1990swhenarevolutionaryminorityproposedtothe
majority"liberal"valuesthat,asitlaterturnedout,werestillunviablehere,patriotismhas
comealong,statenationalism,andmoreorlessnormaltraditionalvalues.Thesame
valuesaresharedbythemajorityofhumanity,andtheyhavepossiblyalsostartedtoreturn
totheWesternworldwhoseelitehastriedtorejectthem.Itisveryimportantthatthe
majorityoftheRussianpopulationandelitefeelthatthenewpoliciesaremorallyright.This
isafundamentalchangeincomparisonwiththeshameandthedesiretopleaseoftheend
ofthe1980sand1990s.Therewerealsoforeignpolicyfailures.Majorunsolvedproblems
remain.
Wedidnotsucceedinconstructingamutuallybeneficialandthusstablerelationshipin
Europe,oraviablesystemofEuropeansecurity.Wedidnotsucceedinpreventingthe
fratricidalconflictinUkraine.Includingbecauseoftheeffectiveabsenceofaserious
strategicpolicytowardsthiscountryforaquarterofacentury.Itwillremainafactor
complicatingaconstructiverelationshipwithEuropeformanyyears,andasourceof"black
swans"-unpredictablechallengesandprovocations.Averyimportantdangeristhe
diversionofpolitical,intellectual,administrativeandeconomicresourcesintoasituation
thatwillbehopelessfortheyearstocome.TherelianceontheRusso-American"reset"
thatwasbasedonanalreadysecondaryproblem-reducingstrategicoffensiveweapons-
wasamistake.Moscowdidnotinsistonresolvingafundamentalissue-haltingthe
expansionofWesternalliances.
TheeconomicandpoliticalturntotheEastisgoingslowly.TheSCOishalfasleep
althoughithasexpanded,noresultsoftheaccordon"linking"theEPShPandtheYeAES
havebeenseenforalmostayearnow.TheveryimportantproblemsofRussianpolitics
includeitsfocusonthepast.Wearestillcorrectingthemistakes.TheRussianelitehas
stillnotdrawnupanationaldevelopmentstrategyfocusingonthefuture,includinga
relevantforeignpolicy.
Themainconclusion:thesuccessesachievedinforeignpolicy,thestrengtheningofthe
country'sstrategicpositionanditssecurity,Russia'sreturntothestatusdesiredbythe
majorityoftheeliteandthepeopleofafirst-classgreatpower,permit,andthenewandold
globalchallengesurgentlydemand,themovingofthevectorofthestate'sandsociety's
attentiontothetasksofinternaleconomicdevelopment,andthepreservationand
developmentofthenation'shumancapital.Itisdishearteningthatthemajorityoftheelite
arenotreadyforsuchalongoverdueturninpolicy.
Foreignpolicyaimedatthefuture
Russianforeignpolicyinthenewworldshouldevidentlyproceedfromthefollowing
principlesandaims(inadditiontoandindevelopmentofthoseofficiallystated):preventing
anewglobalmilitaryconflictall-roundsupportforthecountry'stechnologicaland
economicdevelopment,andthepreservationandaugmentationofhumancapital.
Developmentcannotbeachievedwithoutactiveinvolvementininternationalcooperation.
Weneedtofocusonrestoringandsupportingthesupremacyofinternationallaw,firstand
foremosttheUNCharter.Russianeedstoregainleadership,includingasalegitimate
power.
Thepositionsoughtinthefutureworld:Russiaasabulwarkofinternationalstabilityand
peace,guaranteeingfreedomofdevelopmentforallcountriesandpeoples,andpreventing
theimpositionofalienproceduresandvaluesonthemfromtheoutside,particularlyby
force.
TheidealforeignpolicyandeconomicpositionforRussiainthefuture-agreat,
economicallydeveloping,Atlantic-PacificOceanstate,whichplaysacentralroleinthe
greaterEurasiancommunity,intheeconomic,logisticalandmilitary-politicalintegrationof
AsiaandEurope,aguarantorofinternationalpeace,andanexporterofmilitaryandpolitical
stabilityforEurasia.
Thefollowingtasksareseentobeprioritiesinthespecificpolicy:
-Maintainingthehighlevelofcombatreadinessandflexibilityofthearmedandparticularly
thenuclearforces
-AttachingrealprojectstotheturntotheEast.Themovetowardscreating,togetherwith
China,India,Iran,andprobablytheASEANcountries,SouthKorea,YeAESallies,andother
countries,aGreaterEurasiaCommunityopentotheworldandaimingatcooperationwith
theEUcountries.ThecentralorganisationforthefutureoftheRussianpolitical-economic
orientationisamoreactiveSCO.ThemovetowardscreatingaGreaterEurasian
CommunitywillenabletheincreaseinChina'smighttobeoffsetandtobeplacedwithina
broadframework.ThisisevidentlyalsototheadvantageofChinaitself,anditwillenable
theassociationagainstitofneighboursconcernedaboutitsmighttobeavoided.
Theorientationofforeignpolicyprimarilytowardstheentirepost-Sovietspaceshould
graduallybeleftinthepast.Twenty-fiveyearshavepassedsincethecollapseoftheUSSR.
Itispointlesstocontinuetobenostalgicaboutit.Theworldhaschanged.Newpoliciesare
needed.
AfurthersteppingupofthepolicyofsupportingRussiancultureandtheRussianlanguage
abroadandofestablishinglinkswiththeRussiandiasporasisneeded.Russiancitizens
abroadshouldknowforcertainthattheirmotherlandwillstandupfirmlyintheirdefenceif
necessary.Buttheuseoftheslogan"protectionoftheRussianworld"tojustifythe
expediencyoftheuseofmilitaryforcebeyondtheboundariesofRussiaisunrealisticand
counterproductive.Butthisdoesnotmeancallingfortheabandonmentoftheuseof
militaryforceabroadintheeventofaclearthreattoimportantinterestsofthecountry.
Finally,whileturningtowardsthesoutheast,whichisrisingintheworld,weshould
maintainastrategicfocusonrestoringanddevelopinggood-neighbourlyrelationswiththe
countriesofEurope.RecreatingasystemofEuropeansecurityontheoldfoundationsis
impossible.Weneednowtodevelopthebroadestpossiblepragmatic,cultural,economic,
scientific,educational,andhumancooperation.Consideringthelong-termstateofthe
EuropeanUnion,aYeAES-EUdialogueisunlikelytobeproductive.WithNATO,a
professionaldialoguebetweenthemilitaryisusefulonmattersofmaintainingpeaceand
preventinganescalationofconflicts,buttherestorationstartedinthepastoftheuseless
andpartiallyevenharmfulpoliticaldialogueintheNATO-RussianCouncilisunlikely.
ItisprobablyusefultokeeptheOSCEduringtheperiodofuncertaintyandturbulence,but
theorganisationshouldbere-orientedprimarilytowardsmodernisedandextended"primary
goals"-securityaimedatpreventingandsettlingconflicts,drawingupajointpolicyonthe
fightagainstterrorism,andoncooperationtoensurebordersecurity,regulatingimmigration
fromneighbouringregions,andalsofightingcybercrime.
WeshouldevidentlyproceedinrelationswithEuropeoverthecomingdecadesfromthe
factthatitisnolongeramodel,butalsoevenlessathreat.Asimilarcultureandapartner
ineconomicandhumancooperation.Forthemomentweareinconflict,butanew
rapprochementisdesirableandperhapsalsopossible.
TheUkrainianandsimilarcasesshouldberesolvedinthefutureonthebasisofa
negotiatedconstantneutrality,andanimmersioninnewformatsforcooperationand
security.Inthefirstinstance-Eurasian.
Takingintoaccountthenewrealities-inthefirstinstance,China'smovementtowardsthe
West,weshouldcountonreplacingthefailedunilateralEuropeangeopoliticalorientationof
RussiawithaEurasianone,withamovementawayfromthefailedGreaterEuropetoa
GreaterEurasia,oreveninthelongterm-towardsacommunityofGreaterEurasia,from
SingaporetoLisbon.TheaimofrelationswithAmericaisafirmdeterrencefromdangerous
actions,especiallyduringtheperiodofitsadaptationtothenewrealities,andencouraging
theirabandonmentofrevolutionarydemocraticmessianism.Butthemostimportantthingis
thelongtermpolicyofcooperationtopreventandsettlecrises,theirdevelopmenttoa
globallevel.Themaintoolisanintensive,includingmultilateral,dialoguetopreventthe
underminingofinternationalstrategicstability.
Westress,themaintaskofRussianforeignpolicy,aswellasthetoppriorityofRussia's
entirestrategy,mustbeensuringarapidemergencefromthedevelopmentcrisis,inwhich
thecountryfindsitself,andwhichthreatensitslong-termpositionintheworld,andits
sovereignty.Foreignpolicyshouldhelptomobilisesociety,butnotdistractitfromitsmain
aim-economicandscientificandtechnicalregeneration,helpingtodevelopthecountryin
promisingareas,andthismeansthesouth-eastoverthenextfiveto10years,andnotto
allowittobedistractedbyexpensiveandunpromisingones.
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#4
www.rt.com
June1,2016
MedvedevcallsformajorefforttoimproveRussians'attitudetowardbusinesspeople
PrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevhassaidthatmembersoftherulingUnitedRussiaparty
shouldtrytochangeordinaryRussians'attitudetoentrepreneursandmakesuccessful
businessmenrolemodelsforthepublic.
"Itisveryimportantforusthatourpeople,commoncitizens,perceiveentrepreneursnotas
ahostileclass,butasanexampletheyshouldfollow,aspeoplewhohavebuiltsuccessful
careersthroughtheirownworkandthroughagreatdealofeffort,"Medvedevsaidata
meetingwithmembersofUnitedRussia'sbusinessplatform,agroupsetupwithinthe
partytopromotetheinterestsofbusinesspeople.
Theprimeministeraddedthatthemostlikelyreasonforthecontinuingnegativeattitude
towardbusinesspeopleinRussiawasthe"complicatedideologicallegacy"oftheSoviet
era.
Medvedevsuggestedthatactivistsshouldusesuccessstoriestopromotionapro-
businessagenda,notingthatsuchmeasurescouldbothimprovetheattitudetoward
entrepreneursinsideRussiaandimprovethecountry'simageinternationally.Ifthis
campaignissuccessful,theprofessionofentrepreneurwouldbecomeoneofthemost
respectedinRussia,hesaid.
UnitedRussia'sBusinessPlatformgroupwascreatedthankstoaproposalbyMedvedevin
February.Thepartyhasthreemoregroupstargetingthemostimportantissues:the
patriotic,liberalandsocialplatforms.InApril,theplatformdetailedsomeproposalsfor
improvingthebusinessclimateinthecountry,includingtheliberalizationoflawstomake
registrationandrunningofcompanieseasier,campaignsthatwouldimprove
entrepreneurs'imagewithchildrenandtheproposaltoawardtopstatedecorationsto
exceptionallysuccessfulbusinesspeople.
AlsoinFebruary,UnitedRussiaheldaconventiondedicatedtoitsstrategyinthe
forthcomingSeptemberparliamentarypolls.Itsmajorprinciplesdemonstratedashiftfrom
social-orientedpoliciessuccessfullyusedbythepartytogainpopularityduringtherecent
economicboomtopro-businessstepsandmeasuresthatwouldhelptomaintainsocial
peaceintimesofeconomiccrisis.Forthis,UnitedRussialaunchedaseparateinitiative
group,orplatform,withinitsranksthatwouldconcentrateonsupporttovarious
entrepreneurialinitiatives.
Atthetime,Medvedev,whoservesasUnitedRussia'schairman,stronglydenouncedany
attemptstocallforchangestopropertyrightsintheelections,sayingthatsuchextreme
ideascouldleadthenationtocatastrophictimessimilartothosethatfollowedthe1917
BolshevikRevolution.
[returntoContents]
#5
US-RussiaBusinessCouncil
May31,2016
Medvedev:EconomicGrowthWillDependOnChangingPerceptionsOfBusiness
PrimeMinisterMedvedevtoldameetingoftheUnitedRussiapartyandbusinessleaders
todaythattheaverageRussianmustchangetheirperceptionofentrepreneursand
businessmeninordertosuccessfullydiversifytheeconomyandcreaterealgrowth.He
saidthatRussiais"adevelopingeconomywithacomplexideologicalheritage"andthat"it
isimportantthatourcitizensperceivetheentrepreneurialclassnotashostile,butasan
exampletofollow,aspeoplewhohaveasuccessfulcareerthroughtheirownhardwork."
Medvedevnotedthatthecurrentsituationintheeconomyis"verydifficult"andstressedto
theUnitedRussiamembersthat"thetaskofthestateistocreatethemostcomfortable
conditionsforbusinesstoworkandtodevelopandtoreducetheabundantadministrative
restrictions."
Atthesametime,Medvedevdecriedtheslowresponseofthestateapparatusinmany
instances,notingthatitsometimestakemonthsorayearforthegovernmentbureaucracy
toimplementpoliciesmeanttosupporttheeconomy.Medvedevpreviouslydiscussedthe
needtochangeperceptionsofentrepreneurshipinhis2009op-ed"RussiaForward!,"
writtenduringhistenureaspresident.AnewVTsIOMlongitudinalsurveyfoundthatattitudes
towardentrepreneursareslowlychanginginsomeways.Thepercentageofrespondents
whosaidtheywouldnotstartabusinessrosefrom49percentin1991to60percentin
2016,butmorethan60percentofyoungpeoplesaidthattheywanttostartabusiness.
However,havingmoneywascitedasthetopprerequisiteforbusinesssuccess(by34
percentofrespondents)ratherthanhardworkandinitiative(27percent).
Sources:GovernmentoftheRussianFederation,May31,2016VTsIOM,May30,2016.
[returntoContents]
#6
UPI.com
June1,2016
Russiaexpectseconomicgrowthinayear
Ministerswarnedearlythisyearareturnto$50perbarreloilcouldcreateheadwinds.
ByDanielJ.Graeber
STUTTGART,Germany,June1(UPI)--ItmaybeanotheryearbeforetheRussian
economyrecoversfromdeeprecessionandreturnstogrowth,thecountry'seconomic
developmentministersaid.
Witha3.7percentdeclineingrossdomesticproductlastyear,RussianEconomic
DevelopmentMinisterAlexeiUlyukayevsaidthecountrywasinadeeprecession.The
RussianCentralBank,however,saidearlierthisweekthatinflationwasstabilizingandthe
economywasmovingtothestartingpointofrecovery.
UlyukayevsaidfirstquarterGDPshrankby1.2percent,butrecoveredtoaboutnegative0.7
percentbyApril.
"Weexpectthatsomewhereinthemiddleoftheyearwewillreachzeroandafterthatwe
willgraduallyrestorepositiveeconomicgrowth,"hesaidfromGermany.
TheCentralBanksaidthat,unlessthereareexternalshocksbeyonditscontrol,the
Russianeconomyisonpaceforslowgrowth.Therecoveryincrudeoilprices,coupled
withamorestablecurrency,iscreatingfavorableconditionsintheRussianeconomy.
"Consumerinflationisgraduallysettlingdownonthepathtowardstheannuallevelof6.5
percentand4percentfor2017,"thebankreportedthisweek.
ADecemberreviewfromtheCentralBankofRussiasaidoilpricesshouldreturnto$50per
barrelbythefirsthalfof2016,butstaythereuntilatleastlate2018.Loweroilpricesare
expectedtolimitRussia'seconomicrecovery,buttheeconomymaybecomelessexposed
tocommoditypricesasitshiftstomoreproductiveindustries.
RussianenergyofficialswarnedinMarchthatapriceabove$50perbarrelofoilmight
skewmarketsheavilytowardthesupplysideasenergyinvestorslooktocapitalizeonthe
forwardmomentum.
Crudeoilpricesaretestingthe$50mark,upfromlowsbelow$30perbarrelearlythisyear.
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#7
RussiaDirect
www.russia-direct.org
May31,2016
WhenwilltheRussianeconomyfinallyemergefromrecession?
DespitesomepositiveindicatorsintheRussianeconomy,itbadlyneedsstructuralreforms
toresumestableeconomicgrowth.
ByDmitryDokuchaev
DmitryDokuchaevisaRussianjournalistandcolumnist,whodealswitheconomicissues.
HehasextensiveexperienceindifferentRussianmedia,includingIzvestia,MoscowNews,
TheNewTimes,TheEchoofPlanet.
Fornearlytwoyears,theRussianeconomyhasbeeninrecession.Duringthistime,
domesticandforeignthinktankshavecompetedwitheachothertoseewhocouldpredict
themostdramaticdeclineoftheRussianeconomyagainstthebackdropoffallingoilprices
andinternationalsanctions.
However,bytheendofspring2016,thesituationhaschanged.Manyfiguresthatmeasure
economicperformanceofthecountryhavechangedfromnegativetopositive.That,inturn,
hasalsochangedthenatureoftheforecasts,whichnolongersoundsoapocalyptic.
Onthecontrary,manyexpertsquiteconfidentlyseetheproverbiallightattheendofthe
tunnel,andpredictthattheRussianeconomywillresumeitsgrowth.
SignsofhopeforRussianeconomicgrowth
EconomicofficialswithinthegovernmentinsistthatthedownturnintheRussianeconomy
hasbeenstopped.InthesecondhalfofMay,theMinisterofEconomicDevelopmentAlexey
UlyukayevannouncedthattheRussianeconomyhademergedfromrecessioninthethird
quarterof2015,andthereisnoreasontobelievethatitwillre-enterit.
Earlier,theMinistryofEconomicDevelopmentreportedthat,accordingtopreliminary
estimates,Russia'sgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)inthefirstquarterof2016decreased
by0.2percent(excludingseasonalfactors),comparedtothefourthquarterof2015.
AccordingtoRosstat(Russia'sstatestatisticsagency),Russia'sGDPfellby1.2percentin
thefirstquarterof2016onayear-over-yearbasis.
Ofparticularsignificanceisthattheseindicatorsaresignificantlybetterthananalysts
expected,andevenbetterthanthegovernmentofficialspredicted.InitiallytheMinistryof
EconomicDevelopmentpredictedthatRussia'sGDPwouldcontractby1.4percentinthe
firstquarterof2016.Similarly,theconsensusforecastproducedbyBloombergpredicteda
negativeGDPgrowthrateof2percentforthesameperiod.
Giventhat,itcanbearguedtodaythatifsuchatrendcontinuesduring2016,GDPgrowth
ratecouldbezero,orevenitcanseeaslightincreasebytheendoftheyear.Afterthe
Russianeconomycontractedby3.7percentin2015,thiswouldbeabigstepforward.
ManyindependentexpertshavealsostartedtogivepositiveforecastsfortheRussian
economy.Forexample,analystsatCapitalEconomicsaresayingthattheRussian
economyhasalreadypassedthroughthehardestperiod,basedontheirevaluationsofthe
firstquarterof2016.
Whattoexpectfortherestof2016?
ThecurrentdynamicofRussia'smacroeconomicindicatorsallowsmakingveryoptimistic
forecastsgiventhetrendofthelasttwoyears.EconomistsatSberbankCIBYevgeny
Gavrilenkov,AntonStruchenevsky,andSergeyKonyginhavenotedthat,"Thelocal
economyhasreacheditsbottom."EvenifGDPremainsatthecurrentlevel,itsannual
dynamicsintheperiodfromApriltoDecember2016willfluctuatearoundthezeromark,
theysaid.ItisverylikelythatGDPin2016willnotbenegative.
Moreover,someanalystsareexpectingthat"theactualresultswillbeevenbetter."There
areseveralreasonsforthat.AmongthemajorsectorsoftheRussianeconomy,onlythe
retailsegmentcontractedinthefirstquarterofthecurrentyear(comparedtotheyear-
earlierperiod).Constructionandtransportsectorsremainunchanged,whilemanufacturing
andagriculturegrowthratesincreased,comparedwiththepreviousquarter.
So,ifthedeclineinretailtradewillstopandthecurrentdynamicinothersectorsofthe
economyremainsthesame,quarterlyGDPmightstartgrowing.
Foritspart,Russia'sMinistryofEconomicDevelopmentbelievesthatindustrialproduction
fortheyearwilldeliverpositiveresults.Rosstatdataforthefirstmonthsoftheyearshows
thatanumberofindustriesintherealsectoroftheeconomyarealreadyshowingpositive
results,suchasfoodprocessing,chemicals,gasandpetrochemicalindustry,productionof
fertilizers,andcertaintypesofequipment.
Ingeneral,industrialproductionroseby0.5percentinAprilof2016,comparedtothesame
monthin2015,accordingtoRosstat.However,thisisnotyetgrowth,butalreadynota
decline.
IMFandEBRDforecastsfortheRussianeconomy
AccordingtotherecentassessmentmadebytheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)
missioninRussia,thecountry'sGDPshouldgrowby1percentnextyear.TheIMFexpects
stabilizationofoilpricesandimprovementinthecountry'sfinancialsituation,whichwillhelp
toresumeeconomicgrowth.
Accordingtothereport,theeconomiccontractionwassmallerthaninthepreviousperiods,
duetothepackageofmeasuresimplementedbythegovernment-includingthetransition
toaflexibleforeigncurrencyexchangerate,increasingliquidityinthebankingsector,limited
fiscalstimulus,andtheabandonmentofstrictregulation.TheIMFmissionnoteda
significantslowdownininflation,duetotheweakeningofeconomicactivity,andtight
monetarypolicydesignedtolimitthegrowthofincomes.
TheEuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopment(EBRD)isalsolookingwith
optimismattheRussianeconomy.TheheadoftheEBRDSumaChakrabartirecently
notedthatthedeclineintheRussianeconomymightwellbereplacedbygrowthinthenext
eighteenmonths.
FourpercentGDPgrowthby2020?
Meanwhile,theMinistryofEconomicDevelopmenthasfinalizedthedraftofits
macroeconomicforecastfor2016-2020.Accordingtotheministry'sestimates,GDPis
expectedtogrowby4to4.5percentannuallyby2019.Thegovernmentversionofthe
forecastwaspresentedbytheChairmanoftheCounciloftheCenterforStrategic
Research,ex-FinanceMinisterAlexeyKudrinandMinisterofEconomicDevelopment
AlexeyUlyukaev.
Botheconomistsbelievethat,giventheloweroilandgasrevenues,thegovernment
expensesshouldbecut.Thegoalistoachieveanannualreductionoffederalspendingby
aminimum5percentinrealtermsthrough2019.Simultaneously,wageswillriseat50
percentoftheinflationlevel.
Additionally,themobilizationofallpossibleadditionalresourcesmustbeaccomplished,
suchasattractingdomesticandforeigncreditfinancing,andprivatizationofstateproperty.
Asalways,implementationofallthosestepsisquitechallenging.
Wheretogetmoneyforinvestment?
Thekeyquestionremains:WherewillinvestmentsintotheRussianeconomycomefrom,
giventhatthegovernmentisrunningoutofbudgetaryfundswhileinternationalsanctions
arerestrictingfinancialactivitiesofdomesticcompaniesandbanksintheglobalmarkets.
AlexeyKudrinconfidentlysuggestsusingtheinternalresourcesofthecompanies.
Accordingtohim,Russiancompanieshaveaccumulatedfreecapitalintheirbank
accountscomparablewiththeirannualinvestmentneeds."Thatmoneyisevencheaper
thanbankloans,becausetheybelongtothecompanies,buttheyarenotinvested,"he
says.
Kudrin'sopinionissharedbypresidentialaideAndreyBelousov,thewell-knowneconomist
AbelAganbegyan,andmanyothereconomists,whoallagreethatcompanieshaveenough
fundstoallocateforneededinvestments.
In2015,thenetfinancialresult(profitsminuslosses)ofRussiandomesticenterprises
(excludingsmallbusinesses,banks,insurancecompaniesandstatebudgetinstitutions)
increasedby53.1percent,climbingto8.4trillionrubles(about$127.3billionattoday's
exchangerate).Thus,infact,areserveofseveraltrillionrubleshasbeencreatedinthe
Russianeconomy.Thisyearthetrendcontinues.
Butwillthismoneybedirectedtobusinessdevelopment,orremaininbankaccounts
earninginterest?Theanswerdependsonhowbusinessleaderswillevaluatethenear
future.Today,judgingbyexpertcommentsandthestateofmindofbusinessmen,bankers
andinvestors,theirexpectationsarebecomingmorepositive.
Structuralreformsarebadlyneeded
FortheRussianeconomytomovetosustainablegrowth,theIMFrecommendscarrying
outstructuralreforms,inordertoensurethenecessaryinflowofinvestment.
AccordingtoIMFexperts,thenecessaryinstitutionalimprovementsshouldbemade,
aimingatreducingtheadministrativeburdenonbusinessandtheprotectionofproperty
rights.
TheIMFalsoconsidersitwouldbebeneficialforRussiatoimprovethestructureofthe
domesticlabormarket,byincreasingthemobilityofthepopulationandachievingabalance
betweensupplyanddemand,aswellasraisingtheretirementage.Besides,theIMF
recommendscontinuinginvestingintotheinnovativesectorsoftheeconomy,intoenergy
systemsandthetransportinfrastructure.
TalkingtoRussiaDirect,NikitaMaslennikov,advisertotheInstituteofContemporary
Development,alsomentionedtheneedtocarryoutstructuralreforms."Qualitynotquantity
ofthegrowthisimportantforeconomy.Ifwedonotimplementstructuralreformswewillbe
lockedinthe1.5-2percentGDPgrowthrateformanyyears,"heargues.
"Shouldoilpricesremainat$45-50perbarrel,whilethecountrylaunchesstructural
reformstoimproveinvestmentclimateandstimulateinvestmentgrowth,theRussian
economycouldshowpositivegrowtheventhisyear,"suggestsYaroslavLissovolik,chief
economistoftheEurasianDevelopmentBank.
Accordingtohim,theimprovedexpectationshavebecomepossiblenotonlyduetoarisein
oilpriceto$50perbarrel,butalsothankstocertainsuccessachievedinthegovernment's
declaredpolicyofimportsubstitution,especiallyinagricultureandfoodproduction.
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#8
www.rt.com
June1,2016
RussiagivesawayfirstfreelandinFarEast
ThefirstthreefamiliesinRussia'sAmurregionhavereceivedtheirfreehectaresofland
undertheprogramaimingtodevelopthecountry'sFarEast.Theregion'sArkharinsky
district,whichbordersChina,waschosenasthepilotareafortheinitiative.
"Thefirstthreeapplicationswerereceivedfromresidentsinthearea,whichformanyyears
engagedinbeekeeping.Districtauthoritieshavealreadyapprovedthelayoutoftheland,
andpropertyboundarieshavebeenregistered,"aspokespersonforthelocalproperty
authoritiestoldInterfax.
Anothertwoapplicationsarebeingprocessedoneofthemisacollectiveapplicationfrom
threefamiliesalsoinvolvedinbeekeeping.
TheArkharinskydistrictislocatedatthejunctionoftheborderwithChinaandwithRussia's
JewishAutonomousRegion.ThedistrictiscrossedbytheTrans-Siberianrailroadandthe
Chita-Khabarovskfederalhighway.
Theareahas50,000hectaresofagriculturallandand500,000hectaresofforest.
ThegovernorofYakutia,anotherregionincludedintheprogram,announcedthatinaddition
tothehectareoflandofferedbythestate,hisregionwillprovideanother2.5hectaresto
anyoneinterested.Yakutiaisknownforitssevereclimateandthecoldesttemperatures
recordedintheNorthernHemisphereat71.2C(96.2F)in1926.
InApril,theRussianStateDumaadoptedalawallowingRussianstherighttoclaimafree
hectare(10,000squaremeters)oflandintheFarEast.TheareasincludeYakutia,
Kamchatka,Chukotka,Primorye,Khabarovsk,Amur,Magadan,SakhalinandtheJewish
AutonomousRegions.Thelandcanbeusedforanylawfulpurposeandthenewowners
cannotrent,sell,orgiveawaythelandforfiveyears.
[returntoContents]
#9
Izvestia
May23,2016
PublicChambermemberSergeiMarkov,directorofthePoliticalResearchInstitute,
PrimariesinRussia:Adifficultdevelopmentalstage.Ontheneedtoreducethegap
betweendeputiesandvoters
TheleadershipoftheUnitedRussiapartyprobablyharbouredgreatdoubtsastowhetherit
wasactuallyworthwhiletoentertheragingwatersoftheprimaries,beingperfectlyawareof
howmanyproblemsanddifficultiesthisdecisionwouldentail.Nevertheless,itwasnot
afraidtoassumethisresponsibility.
PrimariesarepartofthesystemicevolutionofRussianpoliticallife,theimpetustowhich
wasgivenbythepoliticalturbulenceof2011-2.Thegenerallogicofthisevolutionisto
increasecitizens'trustinthepoliticalsystemasawholeandinelectionsinparticular.The
objectiveinthisistobringcandidatesclosertothevoters,aprocessthatoccursasa
resultofthedivisionoftheDumaelectionsintoproportionalandfirst-past-the-postballots,
throughincreasingcompetitionbetweentheestablishmentparties,andviathereductionof
theuseoftheadministrativeresource.
TheprimariesbeingheldbyUnitedRussiaareoneofthewaysofbringingcandidates,and
thendeputies,closertothevoters.Thelogicissimple:ThecandidatefromUnitedRussia,
naturally,hasacertainadvantageoverothercandidates,becausethepartyissupportedby
thecountry'smostpopularpolitician-PresidentVladimirPutin.Thusacandidatefrom
UnitedRussiahasprettygoodchancesofbeingelected,hypotheticallyspeaking,onthe
strengthofthepopularityofVladimirPutin.
Inordernotto"ride"intotheDumaonVladimirPutin'spopularity,candidatesmustwinthe
righttorunforelectiononbehalfofUnitedRussiainabattlewithoneanother.Moreover,
thisbattleshouldnotbeinaclosedroomwheredecisionsaremadebytheparty
apparatus,butinopenauditoriumswherevoterscanexpresstheirownopinion.
Itisassumedthattheframeworkoftheprimarieswillthrowupnewfaces,thedemandfor
whichtodayisextremelyclearlyexpressedinRussiansociety.Inaddition,certain"old"
facesmayleave.Theywillgoeitherbecausetheyhaveoptednottoconductanintensive
dialoguewiththevoters,beingunabletofindtherightwordsortherightapproachor
becausevotershaverejectedthemonthebasisoftheresultsoftheiractivity,observing
contradictionsbetweenactionscarriedoutandnewpromises.
Itiswellknownthatmanycountriesoftheworldinwhichverystrongdominantpartiesor
broadcoalitionsexisttaketheprimariespath.UnitedRussiaispreciselysuchadominant
party.
Votersreacthighlypositivelytotheseelections,rightlyseeinginthemmoreopportunitiesto
influencetheadoptionofpoliticaldecisionsandwhoendsupintheStateDuma.Actual
voterturnout,however,isinfactoneoftheproblems.
Afterall,theprimariesareastrawpollandanunusualelementforRussia.Overthecourse
ofdecades,everyonehasbecomeaccustomedtogoingtothepolls-toparliamentary,
presidential,localelectionsbutsofarthereisnohabitofparticipatinginpartyelections.
Moreover,peoplearepoorlyinformedaboutthem.Thisiswhyitwasverydifficulttoattain
eventhelevelindicatedbyVTsIOM[All-RussiaCentrefortheStudyofPublicOpinionon
SocialandEconomicQuestions]-32percentexpressingthedesiretotakepartinthe
primaries.Buttherealproportionofpeoplewhovotewillmostlikelybemanytimeslower.
Thesmallnumberofthoseparticipatingintheprimariescreatesanotherproblem-possible
manipulations.Afterall,thefewerpeoplewhoparticipateinthevotingprocess,theeasierit
istoinfluenceitsoutcomewiththeaidofasmall,close-knitgroupofpeople.Wherethere
are100,000peoplecastingavote,1,000peopledonothaveagreatinfluencebutwhere
thereare10,000voting,anextra1,000peopleaffordsalreadyahighprobabilityofvictory.
Hencethedistortionoftheresultsofelectionsbyorganisedclose-knitgroupsisanobvious
problem.
Whethertheaimofbringingpartycandidatesclosertothevotersthoughtheprimarieswill
orwillnotsucceedisabigquestion.
Variousattemptsatfalsificationandtoexertadministrativepressureatlocallevelcouldbe
aseriousdangeronthispath.Itispossiblethatinsomeregionstheresultsofprimarieswill
beannulled.Moreover,theydefinitelyshouldbeannulledifsignificantviolationsare
discovered.Whereafairbattlehasnottakenplace,thereshouldbenopretencethat
everythingisokay.
Thesupportofthevotersisfarmoreimportantthanattemptsnottowashdirtylinenin
public,andtohidethisdirtylinenisimpossibleinthehyper-informationsocietyanyway.The
cancellationofprimariesevenin10percentofregionswouldnotmeanthefailureofthe
ideaofpreliminaryelectionsitself,butthattheyweregoingthroughadifficultprocessof
developmentinRussia.
Problemsandscandalsduringtheprimariesareanormalandwidespreadthinginall
countriesinwhichtheyareheld.TheclassicexampleistheUnitedStates.Andweshould
bepreparedforthis.Nowhere,however,donumerousscandalscallintoquestionthe
principleandneedforpreliminaryelectionsitself.
Thepartyleadershipwellunderstandsthesepotentialdifficulties,however,andthisis
evidentlywhyithasdecidednottoannouncetheresultsoftheprimariesrightaway,butto
allowsufficienttimefortheexaminationoftheappealsoflosingcandidates.Itisvery
importantforthepartythatthepartyelectionsdonotleadtothesplittingawayofaggrieved
losingparticipantsandforUnitedRussiatoemergefromthemconsolidated.
Thisproblem,however,istypicalforallpartiesoftheworldthatholdprimaries.Wecansee
whatabitterstruggleisgoingonintheUnitedStates,forexample.Butstrictpartydiscipline
makesallthecandidatesmakepeaceandconsolidateagainafterward.Butonthewhole,
thepresenceofconflictsofthiskindisnotaweaknessoftheparty.Itisactuallythe
manifestationofthevitalforcesexistinginsidetheparty.Ifaggrievedcandidateslodgean
appeal,thismeansthattheyfeelthemselvestobenotpuppetsofthepartyapparatus,but
independentpublicfigureswhoarefightingfortheinterestsoftheseorthosesocialgroups.
Intheframeworkoftheseprimaries,participantspassthroughtheordealoffiercedebates
ontheentirespectrumofproblemsofconcerntovoters.Thiswillmakethecandidates
fromUnitedRussiabetterpreparedforthebattleagainstrepresentativesofotherpartiesin
theframeworkoftheactualparliamentaryelectioncampaign.
Onthewhole,theappearanceofprimariescanonlybewelcomed,because,intheeventof
competentimplementation,preliminaryelectionswillhelptostrengthenpoliticalpartiesand
theirlinkstothevotersandtoextendthepublicdialoguethatissonecessaryforanystate
inordertoreconcilesocialconflictsandtoadoptdecisionsintheinterestsofthemajorityof
citizens.
[returntoContents]
#10
Politkom.ru
May25,2016
InterviewwithpoliticalanalystKonstantinKalachev,byAleksandrIvakhnik:Konstantin
Kalachev:'ObjectivesofPrimariesHaveGenerallyBeenAchieved.Meanwhile,Problemsin
IndividualRegionsAllowPartyToPinCertainAlarmLightsonMapofRussia'
ApopularvotetoselectUnitedRussiacandidatesfortheStateDumaelectionstookplace
acrossthecountryon22May.This[primaries]procedure,whichthepartyhasbeenusing
forthepastfewyears,hasforthefirsttimebecomenationwideandopen.Politkom.ruhas
talkedwithKonstantinKalachev,awell-knownpoliticalanalystandheadofthePolitical
ExpertGroup,aboutwhatworkedwellandwhatdidnot,andaboutwinnersandlosers.
[Ivakhnik]What,inyouview,wasbehindUnitedRussia'sdecisiontoholdsuchlarge-scale
primariesthatwereopentoeveryone,andwhatweretheaims?
[Kalachev]IthinkthisisaconsequenceofthenaturalevolutionofUnitedRussia,which
usedtheprimariesprocedureforthefirsttimein2007,duringlocalandregionalelections.
Then,theprimarieswereopenonlytopartymembers.Thenextstepwastoswitchtoan
openmodel--thatistoallowcandidateswhoarenotpartymemberstorunaswellandto
holdapopularvote.Inthenineyearssince2007,thepartyleadershiphasrealizedthatthe
primariesdowork,soIunderstandthedesireofUnitedRussia,inasituationwhereits
approvalratingsarenotincreasing,totrytoturnthissituationroundaheadoftheelections
throughapreliminarypopularvoteprocedure.ItenablesUnitedRussia,first,togetahead
startonotherparties,second,tokeepcandidatesingoodformandrenewitslistof
candidateswiththosewhoarehighlyelectable,and,third,toexposeinternalconflictseven
beforetheyhavestarted.Conflictsstemmingfromaclashofambitions,conflictsbetween
influencegroups,anddisagreementswithintheelitethatcouldaffecttheSeptember
electionsarebeingexposedasearlyasMay,thusmakingitpossibletoconductsome
preventionwork.
Thereisanotherimportantpoint:Asustainedmediastoryisbeingcreated,withcandidates
acquiringthecharacteristicsofpeople'scandidates.Asforwhythishappenednow,Ithinkit
isquiteclear.The2011electionsinvolved[party]listsalone,butnowthereisamixed
system.Moreover,thoseelectionsendedinanembarrassmentintheformofBolotnaya
[referencetoclashesbetweenpoliceandprotestersinandaroundMoscow'sBolotnaya
Squareon6May2012,ontheeveofPresidentVladimirPutinbeingsworninforhisthird
presidentialterm].Theprimariesarearesponsetoallchallengesandthreatsconnected
withthemovetoamixedsystemofvotingandthepossibilityoftheSeptemberresultbeing
delegitimized.Inreality,thisispreciselytherealizationofacourseforcompetitiveness,
openness,andlegitimacy,abetterqualityofthelistofcandidates,ahigher[media]
quotationindexfortheparty,theexposureandresolutionofconflicts,keepingtheentire
partyorganizationingoodform,andenablingthecampaigntogetofftoastrongstart.
[Ivakhnik]Asfarastheattainmentoftheobjectivesyouhavementionedisconcerned,how
wouldyouassesstheactualresultsoftheprimariesprocessandthevotethatwasheldon
Sunday[22May]?Havetheexpectationsofthepartyleadershipbeenmet,andwhathave
theprimariesgiventherulingpartyinpractice?
[Kalachev]Russiaisabigcountry,whichiswhythesituationshouldbeviewednotjustas
awhole,butalsoinindividualregions.Ithinkthattheprimarieshavegenerallylivedupto
expectations,thepartyleadershipshouldbepleased,andtheobjectiveshavebeen
achieved.Meanwhile,thedifficultiesandproblemsthepartyencounteredinindividual
regionsallowittopincertainalarmlightsonthemapofRussia,sothatthepartyandits
supervisorsarenowawarewhichregionsrequirespecialattention.Infact,ifallthethings
thathappenedareviewedfromthestandpointofenhancingtheparty'smobilization
readiness,thenithascertainlyincreasedandeverythingwasorganizedquitewell.And,by
theway,this,atthesametime,wasareviewofthecapabilitiesofeachregionalparty
branch,sothatcertainconclusionscannowbedrawn.Ialsothinkthatstereotypesand
clichesaresometimesbrokenhere.Forexample,inmyview,absolutelymodelprimaries
tookplaceinYaroslavskayaOblast.UnitedRussia'spositiontherewasalwaysconsidered
tobeweak.
[Ivakhnik]Yousaidthatsomeproblemregionsorproblempartsofregionshavebeen
identified.Canyouelaborateonthispoint?
[Kalachev]Theseareterritorieswithextremelylowturnouts.Ontheotherhand,itisof
coursegoodthattheydidnotherdpoorpublicsectorworkersintopollingplacesanddidnot
artificiallyincreasetheturnout.Forexample,theturnoutwasverylowinSaintPetersburg
andArkhangel'skayaOblast.Itisclearthatintheseregionseitherthecandidatesdidnot
stirupmuchpublicinterest,ortheparty'sratingsarenothighenough,ororganizational
capacityisbelowpar.Itseemstomethatregionswiththehighestturnoutsshouldalsobe
viewedasproblemones.BecauseitisclearthatthehighturnoutsinDagestanand
Mordoviyawereartificiallyinflated.Itisregionswithaverageresultsthatyoushould
probablynotworryabouttoomuch,especiallyifduringtheprimariestherewereno
situationsinvolvingscandals,bribery,votersbeingbussedintopollingplaces,multiple
voting,andsoon.Insomeplaces,therewereindeedscandals.Itisclearthat,forexample,
therewillbealotofattentiononMoskovskayaOblastintheSeptemberelections.Thistime
round,therewereallegationsofbriberyandmultiplevotinginvolvingspeciallytrainedvoters.
[Ivakhnik]NotjustMoskovskayaOblast,butalsoPrimorskiyKray,SaintPetersburg,
KhabarovskiyKray,Bashkortostan,andVolgogradskayaOblasthavebeenmentionedin
connectionwithscandals.SergeyNeverov[secretaryoftheUnitedRussiaGeneral
Council]hassaidthattherewereatotalof426complaints,whichisafairlylargefigure.
What,inyouropinion,isbehindthesescandals?
[Kalachev]Ithinkthatbehindthemarethepeculiaritiesofourmasspsychology.Your
primariesareasgoodasyourelectionswhileyourelectionsareasgoodasyourvoters.In
otherwords,iftherearepeoplereadytovote[inacertainway]for10roubles,itmeansthat
someonewilltakeadvantageofthat.Iftherearepeoplewhocanimmediatelybebussed
intoapollingplace,itmeansthatsomeonewilltakeadvantageofthat.Ingeneral,any
electionsandanyprimariesareaccompaniedbyconflictandscandal,whichisnobigdeal.
Internationalexperienceshowsthatprimariesneverpassoffwithoutscandalbecause
scandalispartandparcelofthis"show."
Thenatureofscandalsisadifferentmatter.Itisonethingwhencandidatescomplainabout
eachother,whichispartofcompetition.Butitisadifferentthingwhenvotersstart
complainingaboutpressurebeingexertedonthem,bribesbeingpaidtothem,andsoon.
So,complaintsfromcandidatesareinevitablebecausethelosingcandidatewillalways
complain.Itiscomplaintsfromvotersthatgivefoodforthought.Thatiswhycasesof
administrativepressurebeingappliedinordertoforcevoterstotakepartintheprimaries
maybackfireinSeptember.Or,forexample,voterbriberybysomecandidatesmayalso
backfireontheparty,andnotformoralorethnicreasons,butbecausevoterswhotook
moneytotakepartintheprimarieswillnolongervoteforfreeintheelections.
Thatiswhyscandalsinvolvingbriberyoradministrativepressurebeingexertedonvoters
requirecloseattention.Forexample,inVolgogradskayaOblast,thedirectorofayouth
centrewhorefusedtobeinvolvedinsomefraudconnectedwiththevotehasbeen
dismissed.Thisisoutrageous,andsuchthingsdiscredittheprocedure.However,for
candidates,itisnormaltocomplain.
[Ivakhnik]Speakingoftheturnout,yousaidthattherewereabnormallylowandhigh
turnouts,buttheturnoutinthecountryasawholewas9percent.DoyouthinkUnited
Russiawashopingforahigherturnoutoristhatanormalfigure?
[Kalachev]Ithinkthattheydreamedof10percent.IhavejustarrivedbackfromYaroslavl'.
Everythingwasfair,clean,andbeautifulthere,withaturnoutofaround7percent.Infact,7-
8percentisnormal.Ithinkthat10percentisalsoquitepossible,providingprimariesare
competitive.Whenwehaveacompetitivescenario,thenthereisaclearreasonforahigh
turnout.Idonotquiteunderstandhighturnoutsinreferendum-likescenarioswherea
candidatehasnoopponentsand,moreover,isnotsufficientlywellknownandpopular.
[Ivakhnik]JudgingbyyourYaroslavl'impressions,whoturnedouttovoteintheprimaries
there?
[Kalachev]Allkindsofpeople.Inthemorning,therewerepensioners,andthenmiddle-aged
peopleandevenyoungpeople.Infact,everythingdependsonthesupportbaseofa
particularcandidate.Forexample,thewinnerinoneoftheprecincts,AleksandrGribov,
chairmanoftheoblastPublicChamber(hehasjustturned30),hasaverydiversesupport
base.ThelocalPublicChamberisveryactive,perhapsthemostactiveinthecountry.
Therefore,hissupportbaseincludesbothpensionersandyoungpeople.Butingeneral,I
think,itisolderpeopleandperhapswomen,ratherthanmen,thataremorelikelytovote.
[Ivakhnik]Andhowdidvoterslearnabouttheprimaries?Didanyonespeciallyinvitethem?
[Kalachev]Thatisagoodquestion.Earlier,IvisitedIrkutskayaOblast,wheretheturnout
waslow--5percent.Manypeopletherecomplainedthatitwasimpossibletofindpolling
places.Indeed,nospecialworkwascarriedouttomaketheaddressesofpollingplaces
widelyavailable,whichaffectedtheturnout.MeanwhileinYaroslavl',ontheUnitedRussia
websiteandoncandidates'pagesonsocialnetworks,itwaspossibletoobtaininformation
ontheaddressesofpollingplaces.InMoscow,thedetailsofpollingplacelocationswere
postedinapartmentblockhallways.Thismaynotbetheeasiestmethodofnotification,but
itisthemostsensibleone.
[Ivakhnik]Letusgobackalittle.Judgingbyyourimpressions,whatwastheimportanceof
theprocessofpublicdebatesbetweencandidatesthatprecededtheprimaries?Didithelp
revealnewoutstandingpublicfigures?
[Kalachev]Thedebateformatitselfdoesnotallowanythingtoberevealed.Athemeisset,
butthereisnodiscussionassuch.Thisismorelikespeechesandquestion-and-answer
sessions.Suchaformatfordebatesdoesnotallowcandidatestorevealtheircompetitive
advantage.However,itdoesbecomeclearwhoistongue-tiedandwhoisnot.Bytheway,
thedebates,aswellastheprimaries,wereheldindifferentways--insomeplacesformally
andinothersinformally.Insomecasestheyattractedmanypeople.Forexample,in
Yaroslavl',therewerehighattendances.Inotherplaces,veryfewpeoplewouldbepresent.
Insomeplaces,participantswouldtalkrubbish.But,inanycase,theirstupiditywas
apparent.Allinall,peoplehaveatleaststartedtoappreciateproblemsassociatedwith
publicspeaking.Theyhavestartedgettingpreparedandworkingtoimprovetheiroratory
skills.
[Ivakhnik]Andhowactively,inyourview,werecandidatescampaigningintheprimaries?Do
younotthinkthatgenerallytheywerenotveryactive?
[Kalachev]Thisdifferedfromcandidatetocandidate.Someofthemwereveryactiveand
publishedmanythousandsofcopiesofelectionliterature.Theproblemisthattherewere
fewwhoconductedacomprehensivecampaign.Thereisacrisisinthecountry.Thereis
lessmoneyavailable,andyoualsoneedtokeepsomethingfortheSeptemberelections.
Forexample,inPermskiyKray,LegislativeAssemblymemberDmitriySkrivanovconducted
acomprehensivecampaignandcamefirst.Ingeneral,thepictureacrossthecountrywas
highlyvaried.
[Ivakhnik]Howwouldyouassessthelevelofcompetitionintheprimaries?
[Kalachev]Therewascompetitionat40percentofsingle-seatdistricts.However,thereis
competitionandthereiscompetition,Iwouldsay.Therewascompetition,butinthe
majorityofcases,therewaspredictability.Althoughtherewereunpredictablescenariosas
well,insuchcasesadministrativepressureprevailed.Letustake,forexample,the
KrasnoarmeyskiydistrictinVolgograd,whereStateDumamemberOlegSavchenkoran
againstoblastDumamemberTatyanaTsybizova.Savchenkoeventuallylostand
bombardedeveryonewithcomplaints.Inreality,terriblethingshappened.Thefullmightof
theadministrativemachinewasusedagainstSavchenko,andthesituationcouldnotbe
reversed.Buttheremaywellbeoppositeexamplessomewhereelse.
[Ivakhnik]Towhatextent,inyouropinion,havetheprimariesrevealeddisagreements
betweenUnitedRussia'sfederalleadershipandtheinterestsofgovernorsandinfluential
groupsintheregionalelites?
[Kalachev]Ofcourse,therehavebeensuchcases,especiallyinplacescontestedbyONF
[All-RussiaPeople'sFront]candidates.AclearexampleisIrkutskayaOblast,which
featuredMuscoviteNikolayNikolayev,headoftheONFPeople'sTestcentreforthe
independentmonitoringofimplementationofthepresident'sedicts,andapersonfrom
Irkutsk,SergeyBrilka,speakeroftheoblastLegislativeAssemblyandsecretaryofthe
regionalbranchofUnitedRussia.Intheend,Nikolayevcamesecondontheregionallist
whileBrilkawasfirst.ButIthinkthatMoscowwantedadifferentoutcome--forthesimple
reasonthattheheadoftheregionalbranchisaccountablefortheparty'sdefeatsin
IrkutskayaOblastatmayoralandgubernatorialelections.Itisclearthatthereneedstobe
somebreathoffreshair,whichiswhytheyallowedanONFcandidatethere.Hedidwellby
comingsecond,butfellshortofwinningbecausethepoliticalcounciloftheregionalbranch
putupacertainresistance.
TheIrkutskstoryisnottheonlyoneofitskind.However,inthemajorityofcases,ONF
candidateswoninlargecities,andthiswasthetriumphofthefederalcentrebecauseitis
clearwhoisbehindthesepeopleandwhattheirpurposeis.Therewereofcoursecases
wheregovernorsorlocalinfluencegroupstriedtopushthroughtheirownpeopleandwhere
runningagainstthemwerepeoplewho,owingtotheirservicesandlinks,weretreatedas
thepowersthatbe.Inprinciple,thisisanormalprocess.Thatishowitshouldbe.
[returntoContents]
#11
Meduza
http://meduza.io
May31,2016
ThestrangedeathofRussia's'DemocraticCoalition'
The"PartyofPeople'sFreedom,"betterknowas"Parnas,"isoneofthefewpoliticalparties
inRussiathatrepresentswhatiscalledthe"nonsystemicopposition"-Russia'sgenerally
anti-Kremlin,typicallyWestern-leaningactivistsanddisaffectedformergovernment
officials.Earlierthismonth,Parnastriedandfailedtocarryoutaprimarytodetermineits
candidatelistforparliamentaryelectionslaterthisyear.Thepartywasmeanttobethe
vehicleforalarger"DemocraticCoalition,"butthatprojectsufferedamajorblowwhenanti-
corruptionactivistAlexeyNavalny's"PartyofProgress"pulledoutfromthealliance.Parnas
wentaheadwiththeprimary,anyway,butvotingwashaltedabruptlywhenhackersleaked
theelectorate'spersonaldata.Meduzatakesacloserlookathowtheprimaryflopped.
InApril2015,ahandfulofRussianoppositionpoliticalpartiesbandedtogetherandformed
theso-called"DemocraticCoalition."ThegroupconsistedofParnasandseveralother
unregisteredparties,includingAlexeyNavalny'sPartyofProgress.Theunregisteredparties
neededParnastofieldcandidatesinthecominggeneralelections,inordertoavoid
requirementsforcollectingmasssignaturestoqualifyforplacementontheballot.(Parnas
has"parliamentarypartystatus,"thankstooneofitsformerleaders,thelateBoris
Nemtsov,whohadaseatintheYaroslavlregionalDuma.)In2015,theDemocratic
Coalitionheldprimariestodeterminethegroup'scandidatesinregionalelectionsthatyear.
Thecampaignsallfailed,insomeplacesthankstointerferencefromtheauthorities,andin
otherplacestheycollapsedwithoutanyoutsidehelp.
TheDemocraticCoalitionwascreatedwiththe2016Dumaelectionsinmind,soRussia's
"nonsystemicopposition"couldoffervotersasinglelistofparliamentarycandidates.In
December2015,thegroup'svariouspartiesagreedthatformerPrimeMinisterMikhail
Kasyanov,thechairmanofParnas,wouldleadthecoalition'sticket.Thiswouldbe
Kasyanov'sfirsttimeparticipatinginelections.AlexeyNavalny,whowon27percentofthe
voteinthe2013Moscowmayoralrace,isunabletorunforelectedoffice,becauseofhis
criminalrecord.(Navalnyhasbeenconvictedandimplicatedinmultiplecasesthatare
widelyregardedoutsideRussiatobepoliticized.)
InearlyApril2016,thepro-KremlintelevisionnetworkNTVairedafilmaboutMikhail
KasyanovandParnasmemberNataliaPelevinathatcontainedfootageofanintimate
nature,filmedbyhiddencamera.Afterthereleaseofthisfilm,severalmembersofthe
DemocraticCoalition,includingAlexeyNavalnyandoppositionistIlyaYashin,calledon
Kasyanovtoremovehimselffromthetopofthecoalition'sticket,arguingthattheprimary
shoulddetermineallspotsonthelist.(TheDecember2015agreementstipulatedthatthe
primaryvotewoulddeterminethecoalition'sticket,exceptforthemanuallyassignedtop
threespots.)WhenKasyanovignoredthesedemands,YashinandNavalnyrespondedby
withdrawingtheirsupportfortheprimary,alsopersuadingVladimirMilovandhisparty
"DemocraticChoice"todropout.ThiseffectivelybroughtanendtotheDemocratic
Coalition.
Parnaswentaheadwiththeprimary,regardless.Thevotingwasscheduledtotakeplace
betweenMay28and29,hostedatParnas'websiteandatahandfulofphysicalvoting
stationsinselectcitiesacrossRussia.OnSunday,May29,afileappearedonParnas'
websitecontainingthepersonalinformationofeveryonewho'dvotedintheprimary.There
wereroughly7,000names,alongwiththeirloginsandpasswords.Parnaslaterdeclared
thatthiswastheworkofhackers(thoughitfirstsaidthedatahadappearedduetoan
"administrativeerror").Theparty'sbiggestmistakeappearstohavebeenstoringvoters'
personaldatawithoutanyencryption.
Beforehackersinterruptedtheprocess,thecandidateleadingthevotingwasamanfrom
SaratovnamedVyacheslavMaltsev.LittleknowninMoscow,Maltsevsaysheconsiders
himselfthe"bestreplacement"forthepresident'scurrentfirstdeputychiefofstaff,
VyacheslavVolodin(thetwowereborninthesamecity).Maltsevisalsoopenlyanti-
Semitic.Heusedtohaveaseatintheregionalparliament,buttodayhe'sbusymostlywith
hisvideo-blog,everyepisodeofwhichtypicallyattractstensofthousandsofviews.Parnas'
topfiveprimarywinners,beforevotingwassuspended,includedbetterknownpoliticians,
aswell,suchasKonstantinYankauskas,aMoscowcitycouncilman,who'salsoasuspect
inaninvestigationintoillegalcampaignfinancingforAlexeyNavalny's2013mayoral
campaign.Eventheselimitedprimaryresultsappeartobecompromised,however.Inthe
leakeddata,therewereroughly80voteraccountswiththesamepassword,suggesting
thatthesewerebotsoperatingtoinflatesupportforparticularcandidates.Whobenefitted
fromthesebotsisunclear.
ThePartyofProgresshasharshlycriticizedParnasforhowit'shandledpreparationsfor
the2016election,andNavalnyhimselfhaspersonallyaskedKasyanovtostepdownfrom
hispositionaschairmanofParnas.IlyaYashinsaysthegovernment'ssecurityforcesare
behindthecyberattackontheParnasprimary,buthebelievestheyhadhelpfromsomeof
thewebsite'sadministrators,whohesayshavetiestoKasyanov'sformermistress,Natalia
Pelevina.Kasyanov,meanwhile,hasrefusedtoresign.Parnaswillgoaheadwithits
campaign,shapingitspartyticketwithoutconsideringtheresultsoftheinterruptedprimary.
[returntoContents]
#12
Vedomosti
May27,2016
RussianpapersayspressureonNGOleadersincreasing
ElenaMukhametshina,Agentsunderpressure-expertsconsiderallheadsofindependent
NGOstobeatriskofcriminalprosecution
Inthewakeoftheshutting-offofforeignfundingfornon-governmentalorganisations
(NGOs)andthereductioninthenumberofindependenthumanrightsandenvironmental
NGOsinRussia,anewstagehasbegun:Theauthoritiesaresteppinguptheindividual
pressureonNGOleadersandactivists,saystheannualreportfromtheClubofNGO
Lawyersontheactivitiesoforganisationsdeemedtobeforeignagents.Thosesubjectto
suchpressureincludeGolosfounderLiliaShibanova,Golos-PovolzhyeheadLyudmila
Kuzmina,andValentinaCherevatenko,headoftheZhenshchinyDona[Womenoftheriver
Don]union,whomaybecomethefirstNGOheadtobeprosecutedforwillfulrefusalto
implementthelawonforeignagents.
ThelegislationonforeignagentscurtailedtheactivitiesofindependentNGOs,andthelaw
onundesirableorganisationsledtoforeigndonors(eventhosenotonthelistof
undesirables)refusingtofundRussianNGOs,whiletheNGOsthemselvesalsoare
returningmoneypreviouslydonatedtothem,thereportsays.Businessesarerefusingto
supportindependentNGOs,butstatesupportforNGOsloyaltotheauthoritieshasdoubled
-fromR2.3bnin2013toR4.6bnin2016.
Humanrightscampaignershavehighlightedthemainproblemslinkedtotheincreased
statemonitoringofNGOs.Forexample,severalofthemhavehadtorequesttheirown
inclusionontheregisterofagentsinordertoavoidfines(in2013-2014twoNGOs
voluntarilyjoinedtheregister,andin2015-2016eighthavedonesoalready).Normallysuch
suggestionscomefromtheregulatorybodiesandthisisleadingtoanexpansionofthe
conceptofpoliticalactivity:Forexample,in2015theSibaltorganization,whichdealswith
HIVissues,voluntarilybecameanagent,eventhoughpreviouslysuchactivityhadnotbeen
consideredpolitical.ThepressureonNGOshasalsobeenincreasedbyimposingfinesfor
failingtomarktheirworkwiththelabel"foreignagent".
ThirteenpercentoftheNGOsontheregisterofagentshaveceasedtoexist--theyare
usingself-closureasawayofremovingthemselvesfromtheregister,theexpertsexplain
(17NGOshavedonethis).MeanwhilenotasingleNGOhasbeenremovedfromthe
registerinconnectionwithendingitspoliticalactivity,andthecourtshaveneveroncefound
infavourofanNGOinadisputeaboutitsdesignationasanagent.Ontheotherhand,the
SupremeCourtforthefirsttimein2015begantocancelfinesimposedonNGOsfor
refusingtovoluntarilysignuptotheregister,andithasnotalwaysagreedwiththeJustice
Ministry'sconclusionsaboutpoliticalactivity.Thehumanrightscampaignersalsonotethat,
despitethepressure,thenumberofsmall,localgrassrootsinitiatives(themajority
concernedwithcharitablegiving)isincreasingandtheyaremanagingtoattractfunding.
MaksimOlenichev,headofthelegalserviceoftheClubofNGOLawyers,saysthatthe
authoritieshavebegunusingpreviouslyinactiveprovisionsofthelaw,forexample,fining
agentsforfailingtosubmitaccountsontime--thesefinesare60timesgreaterthanthose
forordinaryNGOs:"Aprocessofreplacingcivilsocietyisunderway--independent
organisationsaretodieout,whilemoreandmorepresidentialgrantsareallocatedto
NGOsthatimitatecivilsociety."UntiltheJusticeMinistryreceivestheorderfromthe
president'sadministrationtostanddown,thepressureonNGOswillcontinue,butfornowit
isnotclearwhetheritwillincreaseorstayatthesamelevel,saysAgorainternationalgroup
headPavelChikov:"Thegeneralmoodinthesectoristhatnooneexpectsanythingfrom
thisregime.Thesectorisworking,adaptingtotheaggressiveenvironmentwhichdoesnot
allowdevelopment."ChikovthinksthatalltheleadersofindependentNGOsareatriskof
criminalprosecution.ThepressureisaimedatthoseactivistswhoseNGOsareincludedin
theregister,MemoriallawyerKirillKoroteyevsays:"Theclosureoforganisationscontinues,
althoughsomeofthemwillremainontheregister.Afterall,itiseasiertogoafterNGOs
thanrealcriminals--thepersecutedthemselvessubmitthedocumentsusedfor
persecution,whileterrorists'fundingstreamsdonotpassthroughRosfinmonitoring
[FederalFinancialMonitoringService]."
[returntoContents]
#13
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines
www.rbth.ru
June1,2016
'Putin'speople':Themysteriousagencythatguardsthepresident'slife
TheheadofRussia'sFederalProtectionService(FSO),responsibleforprotectingthelife
ofthepresident,hasbeenreplaced.RBTHlooksintowhatthischangemeansandwhat
thismostmysteriousofallRussianspecialservicesdoestoday.
YEKATERINASINELSCHIKOVA,RBTH
TheFederalProtectionService(FSO)isapowerful,multi-purposeandextremelysecretive
agency.ThereishardlyamoreclosedRussiansecurityforce-onlyassumptionscanbe
madeaboutitsactivities.Thereisnopublicdataaboutitsoperations,therearenopublicly
availablereports.
For16years,itwasheadedbyGeneralYevgenyMurov,alongtimeallyofPresident
VladimirPutin,who,liketheRussianleader,emergedfromtheLeningradpowerstructures
ofthelateSovietperiod.ButonMay26,PutinacceptedMurov'sresignationandappointed
hisdeputy,MuscoviteDmitryKochnev,tothepost.
Murov'sresignationisbelievedtobedowntohisage.Heturned70lastNovember,
reachingtheagelimitforcivilservants,andRussianmediahadlongbeenpredictinghis
imminentresignation.Oneofthecountry'smostinfluentialpeople,GeneralMurovtookup
thepositionofFSOhead11daysafterPutinbecamepresidentand,sotheysay,haskepta
tightholdonhispositioneversince.
Verylittleisknownaboutthenewappointee.Kochnevisamanwithoutabiographythereis
notawordtobefoundabouthimontheKremlin'sandtheFSO'swebsites.Itisonlyknown
thatheledthePresidentialSecurityService(partoftheFSO)fromtheendof2015,and
thathiswife,accordingtotheincomestatement,earned58.1millionrubles(about
$830,000)in2015-morethananyotheremployeeinthedepartment.
'Bodynumberone'
TherootsoftheFSOgobacktooneofthedirectoratesoftheKGB-theSoviet-erastate
agencywithveryextensivepowers.Thisdirectoratewasresponsibleforthesafetyoftop
officials,justastheFSOisnow.Therearemanylegendsabouttheirmissiontoprotect
"bodynumberone."For15years,rumorshavecirculatedthatFSOofficersusea
presidentialbodydoubleforPutin'sriskiestperformances-likesubmersibledivestothe
bottomofLakeBaikalorflyingafighterjet.
Sometimes,theFSOofficersaredressedinblacksuitswithamicrophoneintheear
sometimes,theywearcivilianclothesandgetlostinthecrowd.Onlythemosttrustedwork
there.Evenso,theyhavebeenknowntofallintotemptationandpostaworkselfieonsocial
networks-reportershaverepeatedlystumbledonsuchphotos,aswellasonpersonal
informationaboutFSOguards.
TheFSOofficersprotectnotonlythepresidentbutalsojudges,witnesses,officials,and
officialsitessuchastheKremlinandtheStateDuma.However,thisisonlyoneoftheir
manytasks(andopportunities).UnderGeneralMurov,theFSOdesperatelyfoughtformore
powersandthestatusofRussia'smainsecurityserviceagainstitsmainrival-theFSB
(FederalSecurityService).Anditseemstohavewon.
Controloverbillions
Inthemid-2000s,theFSO,alongwithotherspecialservices,wasinvolvedinatough
confrontationwithinthepowerstructuresfromtheRussianpresident'sinnercircle.The
infightingwasnotonlyfortheproximityto"objectnumberone,"butalsoforthecontrolof
cashflows,assetsandresources.
In2007,theconflictwasbroughtoutintheopenwhennotonlythecountry'sleadingmedia,
butalsotheheadsofthedepartmentsthemselves,startedtalkingabouta"feud"between
thesecretagencies.
TheFSOhadclasheswithbothwiththeFSB(whichdidnotendinfavorofthelatter),and
thePresidentialPropertyManagementDepartment.Thebattlerevolvedaroundtheproperty
ofthestate-thePropertyManagementDepartmentwasinchargeofsanatoriums,
constructionandtransportorganizations,andthefederalgovernment'sfoodplants,aswell
asforeignpropertyofthestateanddozensofdevelopmentprojects.
Ultimatelyitwas"Putin'sguards"whoprevailedinthis"battleofthesecurityforces."
AccordingtotheUnifiedStateRegister,theRussiannewsserviceRBKwrites,nosingle
presidentialresidenceismanagedtodaybythePropertyManagementDepartment,butis
underthesupervisionofeithertheRussianFederationitselfortheFSO.
TheFSO'scountlessassetsalsoincludethecompanyAteks,whichisaffiliatedwiththe
agency.ThesubsidiarywasestablishedontheordersofMurovin2003andisinvolvedin
theconstructionoffederalfacilities,aswellasinchargeofthestatebudget,distributing
statecontractsandplacingtendersformillionsandbillions(forexample,fortherestoration
ofthewallsandtowersoftheKremlin,Lenin'sMausoleum,ortheTchaikovsky
Conservatory).
Sociologyforthepresident
Butbillionsarenotall.TheFSOasaspecialserviceisalmostomnipotent-indeed,its
peoplehavetherighttocarryoutoperationalandinvestigativeactivities,conduct
wiretappingandopencorrespondence,detaincitizens,searchhomesandconfiscatecars.
Whileprotectingstateagencybuildingsandothersensitivesites,theFSOofficers,of
course,arealsoresponsibleforroutestothefacilities.Theyhavecontrolofevery12th
streetinMoscow,andtraditionallykeepdossiersonthosewhohappenedtolivethere.
Alongtheway,theFSOisengagedinsociologicalresearchprojects.Closedones,of
course.Thisdataiscollectedforthecountry'sleadership,anditisbelievedthatitistheir
reportsthatthepresident,theSecurityCouncilandthegovernmentrelyontomake
decisions.
Theagencypreparesrankingsofpartyandoppositionleadersandmonitorsthesocio-
economicsituationintheregions.Ifoneofthegovernorsresignsduetoalossof
confidenceintheirabilities,thechancesarethattheFSOhaveprovidedsomeassistance
inthematter.
OneoftherecentextensionsoftheFSO'spowersisthecreationanddevelopmentofthe
internet'sRussiansegmentforpublicservants.Thesepeoplewillalsobeinchargefor
encryptedcommunicationchannels.
[returntoContents]
#14
www.rt.com
June1,2016
'Exemplaryintlrelations:'Russia-ChinatiesattheirpeakdespiteWesternsanctions
RussiaandChinahavestrengthenedtheircooperationandprovedtheirpartnershipisvital
despiteWesternsanctionsandWashington'sdisapprovaloftheirstrategicalliance,
participantsoftheRussia-ChinaforuminMoscowtoldRT.
"Togetherwecanbecomeacenterthatcaninfluenceglobalprocesses,"BorisTitov,co-
chairmanoftheRussian-ChineseFriendshipcommitteeandRussia'sombudsmanfor
entrepreneurs'rights,toldRTonTuesday.
WhilesecuringfundingintheWesthasbecomemoredifficult,thesanctionsthemselves
donotposeagreatchallengeforRussia-Chinacooperation,astheydonotaffectmutual
projectsinvolvingmid-sizedandsmallbusinesses,accordingtoTitov.
"Weviewsanctionsasoflittleimportancetotheeconomy,"stressedtheombudsman.
HugemarketsforRussiangoodshavebeencreatedinChina,especiallyenvironment-
friendlyproducts,whicharehighindemand.
"Politicsalwayscontradictseconomicinterests,businessisfarawayfrompolitics,we
needhonestanddirectrelations,"theco-chairmannoted,addingthatoneofthemain
obstaclestoclosercooperationisthesprawlingredtapeafflictingbothcountries.
TakingintoaccountChina'svastexperiencelivingundersanctions,RussiaandChina"will
beabletogothroughthisperiodsignificantlybettertogether."
ForRussia,theexpansionofeconomicactivitiesintoAsia,andEastAsiainparticular,isof
crucialimportance,astheregionprovides"significantopportunities"intermsofinvestment
andtrade,YaroslavLisovolik,chiefeconomistattheEurasianDevelopmentBank,said.
Lisovoliksaid,giventheWest'sapparentreluctancetoremedyrelationswithRussiaand
Beijing,itwill"simplystarttoloseinvestmentandtradeflows"tosanctions,seriouslycalling
theirlong-termeffectivenessintoquestion.
Countriesimposingindiscriminaterestrictivemeasuresthathurtmostlythebroadmasses,
andnottargetedatelites,"shouldbereadytotakethepriceofsanctions"ontheirown
economies,saidNandanUnnikrishnan,VicePresidentandSeniorFellowattheObserver
ResearchFoundationinNewDelhi.
"Ifyousanctionmeyoucannotbemypartner,"theresearcherstressed,addingthathe
thinksthatsanctionsremain"animpedimenttothegrowthofclosereconomicties"
betweenChinaandRussia.
TheintertwinednatureofUS-ChinaeconomicrelationsisforcingChineseleadersto
carefullyexaminealloftheconsequencesbefore"thestrategicembracetakesplace
betweenChinaandRussia,"heobserved.
DespitethecomplexityofrelationsintheUS-China-Russiatriangle,thepotentialforChina-
Russiacooperationisstill"huge,"astheyshareacommonmultipolarapproachto
internationalrelations.
"Neitherofthetwocountrieswanthegemonyintheworld-thiscombinesRussianand
Chineseinterestsatthisstage,"Unnikrishnanconcluded.
Infact,thisstrategyhasbornefruitintheAsiaPacificregionasawhole,arguesLi
Yongquan,DirectoroftheInstituteofRussian,EastEuropeanandCentralAsianStudiesat
theChineseAcademyofSocialSciences(CASS).
"ThedevelopmentofChina-Russiatiesensuredstabilityintheregion"forthepast20
years,whichshouldserveastheexample"foreveryoneelseintheworld"intermsof
Commentingondestabilizingfactorsintheregion,theresearcherblamedtheUSforthe
risingtensionsovertheSouthChinaSea,someareasofwhicharecontestedbetween
ChinaandWashington'sallies.
"Inthepast,SouthChinaSeawasneveranissue.Somecountriesinthepastrecognizing
China'ssovereigntyintheregionhaverecentlychangedtheirstance,"hesaid,notingthat
thisisa"man-madeproblem"forgedbytheUS.
TitovsaidthatclosecooperationbetweenRussiaandChinaisanirritantfortheUS,which
hasprompteditsattemptstothwartaRussia-Chinastrategicalliance.
However,"bothChineseandRussianleadershipunderstandthatwearebettertogether
andwearenotsoworriedaboutAmericaanditsattitudetothisissue."
Earlierattheforum,RussiaandChinaagreedtoincreasetradefrom$90billionthisyearto
$200billionwithinthenextfouryears.RussianDeputyPrimeMinisterArkadyDvorkovich
describedtheambitiousgoalas"challengingbutrealistic."ChinaisRussia'ssecond
largesttradepartneraftertheEU.
[returntoContents]
#15
Sputnik
June1,2016
DiplomaticTightrope:WillRussiaSolveYetAnotherSyrianProblem
WiththepeaceprocessinSyriastalling,theinternationaltalksslowlyfallingintosleep
modeandthebloodshedstillraginginthecountry'snorthernpart,Moscowisproposinga
remarkablediplomaticsolutiontothecountry'sseethingethnictensions.
Russia,whichbyitsownadmissionhaseliminatedover28,000terroristssincethestartof
theSyrianoperationlastSeptember,isnowattemptingtotakeovertheleadingrolein
negotiationsonthefutureofSyria,theDanishnewspaperPolitikensuggested.
SurprisinglytotheWest,whichmainlyseesRussiaasasupporterofAssad,Moscow,has
recentlymadeanumberofproposalsforanewconstitution,whichmaygreatlyrestrictand
decentralizeAssad'spower.Oneofthemisaproposaltolimitthepresident'stermofoffice
tosevenyears,Politikenwrote.Accordingtoathink-tankundertheRussianForeign
Ministry,theRussianproposalaimsatsubstantiallylimitingtheSyrianpresident'spowerto
makeAssad'sresignationunnecessarybecausehisroleafteratransitionperiodwillbe
nothingbutmarginal.
Russiaproposesthatthepresidentshouldbeincreasinglyresponsibletotheelected
parliament.Thepresidentwillthereforelackanylegislativepowers,whichshallinsteadbe
vestedintheparliament.TheRussiandraftconstitutionalsoomitstheformerlycrucial
principlethattheSyrianpresidentmustbeaMuslim,Politikenwrote.
InthedraftofanewSyrianconstitution,whichwasrecentlyleakedtothemediainthe
MiddleEast,RussiasuggestedthatSyriashouldchangeitsofficialnamefromtheSyrian
ArabRepublictotheRepublicofSyria,inordertoappealtoethnicminoritiessuchasKurds
andTurkmen,Politikenreported,citingGulfNews.
Besides,theRussiandraftwillsupposedlygivetheSyrianKurdsaconstitutionalrightto
speaktheirownlanguageonparwithArabic.However,theKurdishautonomymustnotbe
politicaloreconomic,butrathercultural,theLebanesenewspaperal-Akhbarwrote.
OnegoalthatKurdsandArabscurrentlyhaveincommonthesedaysistooutDaeshfrom
thetownofRaqqa.However,reconciliationbetweenthetwoethniccommunitiesmayprove
atoughtaskinthefuture,accordingtothelatestpoll,Politikenwrote,quotingtheSyrian
Observer.
IntheautonomousKurdishregionneartheborderwithTurkey,awhole79.6percentofthe
populationspokeinfavoroffederalism,whichinfuturecanguaranteethemautonomy.At
thesametime,roughlyasmanynon-Kurds(78.1percent)opposeanyautonomyfor
minorities.Inthegovernment-controlledareas,65.6percentofthepopulationareagainst
decentralizationandpreferasinglegovernmentwithallthepower.However,55.3percent
ofthepopulationinareasunderrebelcontrolareinfavorofdecentralization.
Alawites,theethnicgroupfromwhichAssadhimselfcomesfrom,areknownasthe
fiercestopponentsofanyautonomy,which,accordingtoPolitiken,maybeperceivedasa
"reluctancetoshareSyria."
Earlier,RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovsaidRussiawouldsupportSyria's
federalization,aslongasitisbackedbythecountry'sinhabitants.
"Whicheverformofgovernment,beitfederalization,decentralizationoraunitarystate,
mustbeapprovedbyallSyrians,"LavrovsaidasquotedbyRIANovosti."Wehavenever
triedtomakedecisionsonbehalfoftheSyrianpeople,"hestressed.
Priortothewar,SyriahadanArabmajorityof74percentofthepopulation.TheKurds
madeupsome9percent,whereastheTurkmennumberedsome100,000.
[returntoContents]
#16
www.rbth.ru
May31,2016
PoliticaldivisionoverUkrainesetssceneforthawinRussia-EUrelations
ThereleaseofUkrainianpilotNadiyaSavchenkobyMoscowandhintsinGermanyofa
relaxationonsanctions,aswellaspositiveoverturestowardRussiabyEUCommission
PresidentJean-ClaudeJuncker,haveraisedrealhopesthatRussiaandtheEUmaybe
readytostartrebuildingtheirrelationship.
ByBryanMacDonald
BryanMacDonaldisaMoscow-basedcommentator.
ThoseexperiencingaSiberianwinterforthefirsttimeusuallyagreeononething.Thatit
feelslikeitwillneverend.OftenthefirstsnowcomesinlateOctoberand,incertain
regions,canendureuntilthefollowingMay.ByMarch,mostnewarrivalsarestartingto
questiontheirmove.Andsanity.Nevertheless,whenthethawarrives,itactsquicklyanda
glorioussummerusuallyfollows.
Inrecentyears,Russian-EUrelationsbeenstuckinadeepfreezeofSiberianproportions.
FromBrussels'pointofview,Moscowhasbehavedappallinglyin"annexing"Crimeaand
sponsoringrebelswhohavecausedmayheminUkraine.
Infact,NATObelievesthattheKremlin'ssupporthasgonemuchfurtherandthatactual
Russiansoldiershavebeencovertlyoperatingthere.Atthesametime,someEurocrats
haveaccusedMoscowof"weaponizing"everythingfrominformationtomigrationina
"hybridwar"againstEUstates.
ViewedfromtheKremlin,thesituationlooksdifferent.Russianofficialsareadamantthat
EurocratsdestabilizedUkrainebyforcingthedividedcountryintomakingadefinitivechoice
betweenMoscowandBrussels.
Indeed,theyareconvincedthatthe"EasternPartnership"programwasdesigned
specificallytoweakenRussia.Additionally,someRussianapparatchikshaveopenlystated
theirconvictionthattheEUhasturnedintothe"politicalwing"ofNATOandisultimately
controlledbytheUnitedStates.
Glacialwinter
WhenitcomestoCrimea,RussiansinsistthatMoscow's"reabsorption"ofthepeninsula
wasthefreeanddemocraticchoiceoflocalresidents.Interestingly,thisstanceisbacked
upbysomeWesternopinionpollfirms,asForbesmagazinereportedinMarch2015.
Despitethis,manyWesterngovernmentsstillmaintainthattheywillneverrecognisethe
legitimacyofRussiancontrolinCrimea.Fearofsettingaprecedentthatcouldlaterbe
usedtowreakhavocontheBalticstatesisprobablyasignificantfactorinthisthinking.
Thus,whilemanybusinessandpersonalconnectionsremainstrong,atpoliticallevel
Russian/EUrelationshavebeenglacial.Worryingly,signsofasofteninghaveoften
seemedveryfarawayasrhetoricfrombothsideshasebbedandflowed.However,this
pastweek,thingshavechanged.Andthey'vefollowedthepatternofalate-arrivingSiberian
springbybrisklydefrosting.
Herecomesthesun?
TheprocessseemedtobeginonthemorningofMay25whenRussianPresidentVladimir
PutinpardonedUkraine'sNadiyaSavchenko,whosedetentionandconvictionhadcaused
Westernoutrage.Immediately,EUofficialswerefallingoverthemselvestocelebratethe
move.
Bytheweekend,theGermannewsweeklyDerSpiegel,whichisoftenregardedasthe
housejournalofAngelaMerkel'sCDUparty,wasreportingthatBerlinwasconsideringthe
relaxationofsanctionsagainstRussia.
Ofcourse,themotivesheremightnotbetotallybenevolent.Afterall,someEUleaders-
mostnotablyinFrance,ItalyandGreece-haveexpresseddissatisfactionwiththepolicy.
Asaresult,Merkelmayfeelthatretainingunityontheissue,asthingsstand,isimpossible
andthatcompromiseisneededtopreserveEUconsensus.
Whateverthereasons,thefactthatDerSpiegelcarriedthestoryalmostcertainlymeans
thatitreflectsGermangovernmentthinking.Andtalkofsanctionsrollbackismusicto
Moscow'searsrightnow.
Then,justwhentheKremlinwasdigestingthenotionoftheembargoeasing,uppopped
Jean-ClaudeJunckerwithevenbetternews.OnMay30,theEUCommissionpresident
revealedthathewillattendnextmonth'sSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,
widelyknownasthe"RussianDavos."Hisspokeswomansaidthat"hewillusethis
opportunitytoconveytotheRussianleadershipaswellastoawideraudiencetheEU's
perspectiveregardingthecurrentstateofEU-Russiarelations."
LeonardCohenoncewrotethat"there'sacrackineverything.That'showthelightgetsin."
Yet,ithastakenalongtimeforBrusselsandMoscowtouncoveraluminouscrevice.
Russianswillnowhopethatthisdiplomaticwinterisfinallyover.Sowillmanyofthe
EuropeanbusinessesthathavesufferedunderMoscow'scounter-sanctions.
[returntoContents]
#17
NewYorkTimes
June1,2016
UkraineDeclaresWaronJournalism
ByIANBATESON
IanBatesonisworkingonabookaboutUkrainianidentityaftertheMaidanrevolution.
KIEV,Ukraine-InJuly2014,IwenttoDonetsk,aseparatist-controlledregionineastern
Ukraine,tocovertheshootingdownofMalaysiaAirlinesFlight17.Itwasadangerousplace
atthetime.TheUkrainianmilitaryandtherebelswereshellingeachother,and
temperamentalmenwithKalashnikovswhohadbeenknowntokidnapjournalistswere
everywhere.
Likemanyforeignreporters,Iwastheretorelaywhatwashappeningtotheremainsofthe
downedflight's298passengersandcrewmembers.BeforeIwenttothecrashsite,I
obtainedaccreditationfromtheseparatists.ThisdidnotguaranteethatIwouldbesafe,but
itwastheonlywaytogetpastthearmedcheckpoints.
NowUkrainehaslabeledmeanaccompliceinterrorism.
OnMay7,thewebsiteMirotvorets("Peacemaker"),courtesyofanonymoushackers,
publishedpartoftheseparatists'accreditationrecords.Myname,emailaddressandphone
numberwereamongthoseofmorethan4,000journalists,includingfreelancerslikeme,as
wellascorrespondentsfromthisnewspaper,Reuters,theBBCandotheroutlets.Wewere
collectivelylabeled"terroristcollaborators"forgainingaccreditationfromtheseparatists.
Thelist'spublishersclaimednottoknowwhattheconsequenceswouldbeofreleasingthis
information,butitseemedclearthattheintentwastoencouragepeopletotakeaction
againstthejournalistsontheirown.
AntonGerashchenko,amemberofUkraine'sParliamentandanadvisertotheMinistryof
Interior,praisedthepublicationofthelistandcalledforjournaliststoassistUkraineinits
"informationwar"withRussia.Condemnationofthelistfollowedfromorganizations
includingtheOrganizationforSecurityandCo-operationinEuropeandtheCommitteeto
ProtectJournalists.Ukraine'sombudsmancalledforthewebsitetobeblocked.Ascriticism
built,thepeoplerunningMirotvoretssaidtheywouldtaketheirwebsiteofflineandtheKiev
prosecutor'sofficebegananinvestigationintowhetherornotthoserunningthesitehad
committedacrime.
Inresponse,theinteriorminister,ArsenAvakov,declaredhissupportforMirotvoretsand
accusedthosewhocriticizedthepublicationofthelistofharboringseparatistsympathies.
HisFacebookpostreceivedover3,000likes,andthepublicationofthelistisstrongly
supportedbythepublic.AfteranofficialfromtheMinistryofInformationPolicysaidonTV
thatthelistthreatenedthelivesofjournalistsherboss,YuriyStets,postedanapologyon
socialmedia,sayingthattheofficialdidnotrepresenttheministry'sposition.
Emboldenedbythesupport,thewebsiteisnowbackonlineandhaspostedadditional
journalists'contactinformation.Theeditorsstatedthattheywouldnotlistentothe
"whimpering"about"freedomofspeech."AnadvisertotheheadoftheUkrainianSecurity
Serviceannouncedthatthejournalistsonthelistswerebeinginvestigatedaspotential
spies.
Theselistsarenominallyaboutwhohasinteractedwiththeseparatistrebels,butthey
createawider-andmoredangerous-precedent.Thewebsiteanditssupportersin
governmentaresuggestingthatjournalistscanbedividedintotwocamps:thosewho
supportthestateandthosewhoareagainstit,withtheimplicationthatjournalistswho
criticizethegovernmentshouldbesilenced.
Thisisdangerousinanysociety,butespeciallyinUkrainerightnow,wherecritical
journalismisespeciallynecessary.Fewreformshavegonefullyintoeffectandthecountry
hasrecentlytakenahardturnbacktowardcronyism.PresidentPetroO.Poroshenko
installedacloseallyasprimeminister,breakingthedivisionoflegislativeandexecutive
powerestablishedaftertheMaidanSquareprotestsin2014thatledtotheousterofhis
predecessor.Healsonamedacronywithnolawdegreeasgeneralprosecutor.As
corruptionandnepotismthreatenthehopeofUkraine'srevolution,journalistsarebeingtold
thattheyarehelpingtheenemyjustbydoingtheirjobs.
UkrainehaslongfeltoutgunnedbyRussia'spropagandamachine.Moscow'sstate-
sponsoredTVchannelsandInternettrollshavetriedtodivideUkraineandturnglobal
sentimentagainstit.Kievlacksthebudgettomatchthosepropagandaprojects,butmany
Ukrainianpublicationsandjournalistsavoidreportingnewsthatlooksbadfortheircountry
orcouldserveRussianpropaganda.Ukrainianofficialsrecognizedthisreluctanceasa
usefulpoliticaltool.TheynowseektoexplainawayanycriticismasRussian"hybrid
warfare."ThatishowMr.PoroshenkodismissedaNewYorkTimeseditorialcriticizinghis
failuretotacklecorruption.
Intryingtoencourage"patriotic"journalism,inwhichthestatealwaysreceivesthebenefit
ofthedoubt,Ukrainianofficialsareactuallyfosteringajournalismculturesimilarto
Russia's.Russia,too,chastisesreportersandpublicationsthatpublishstoriescriticalof
thegovernmentfornotbeingpatriotic.Andthat'swhynotmanydosoanymore.Recently,
theeditorialstaffofoneofthefewremainingindependentnewsorganizationsinRussia,
RBC,wasdismissedfollowinggovernmentpressure.Therearealsodarkerchaptersof
silencingcriticaljournalists,includingaccusationsofmurder.
MostseniorUkrainianofficialshaveavoidedcommentingonthereleaseofjournalists'
namesandinformation.ButtheyshouldnowactinaccordancewiththeWesternvalues
thattheyclaimtobelieve,andcondemnthedefamationofjournalistsjustforworkingin
separatist-controlledareas.Theymustalsoensurethattheoffendingwebsiteisshutdown
andthattheinvestigationintowhopublishedthelistresultsincriminalcharges.Thisalone
willnotensurethatthecountry'snewsmediaisfreeandfair,butitwillhelpsettheright
tone.Ukrainemustnotsacrificepressfreedominitsstruggletosurvivewar.
[returntoContents]
#18
TheTimesofIsrael
May31,2016
Ukrainehonorsnationalistwhosetroopskilled50,000Jews
CountryforthefirsttimeobservesaminuteofsilenceinmemoryofSymonPetliura,a
1920sstatesmankilledbyaRussia-bornJew
AmidadivisivedebateinUkraineonstatehonorsfornationalistsviewedasresponsiblefor
anti-Semiticpogroms,thecountryforthefirsttimeobservedaminuteofsilenceinmemory
ofSymonPetliura,a1920sstatesmanblamedforthemurderof50,000Jewish
compatriots.
TheminutewasobservedonMay25,the90thanniversaryofPetliura'sassassinationin
Paris.Nationaltelevisionchannelsinterruptedtheirprogramsandbroadcasttheimageofa
burningcandlefor60seconds,Ukraine'sFederalNewsAgencyreported.
AFrenchcourtacquittedSholomSchwartzbard,aRussia-bornJew,ofthemurdereven
thoughheadmittedtoitafterthecourtfoundthatPetliurahadbeeninvolvedinorknewof
pogromsbymembersofhismilitiafightingforUkrainianindependencefromRussiainthe
years1917-1921.FifteenofSchwartzbard'srelativesperishedinthepogroms.
Separately,thedirectorofUkraine'sInstituteofNationalRemembrance,Vladimir
Vyatrovich,saidinastatementonMondaythatKievwillsoonnameastreetfortwoother
Ukrainiannationalists-StepanBanderaandRomanShukhevych-whoarewidelybelieved
toberesponsibleforlethalviolenceagainstJews.AnotherstreetistobenamedforJanusz
Korczak,thepennameofHenrykGoldszmit,aPolishJewishteacherwhowasmurdered
inAuschwitz.
BanderaandShukhevychcollaboratedwithNaziforcesthatoccupiedwhatisnowUkraine
andarebelievedtohavecommandedtroopsthatkilledthousandsofJews.Onceregarded
byUkrainianauthoritiesasillegitimatetoserveasnationalrolemodelsbecauseoftheirwar
crimesagainstJewsandPoles,Petliura,BanderaandShukhevycharenowopenly
honoredinUkrainefollowingarevolutionspearheadedbynationalistsin2014.
EduardDolinsky,directoroftheUkrainianJewishCommittee,condemnedtheplantoname
streetsforBanderaandShukhevych.
"MycountrymenshouldknowthatBanderaandShukhevychconsideredmeandallofthe
UkrainianJews-children,women,theelderly-enemiesofUkrainians,"hewroteon
Facebook.
Inthe2014upheaval,streetprotestersbroughtdownthegovernmentofPresidentViktor
Yanukovych,whomcriticsperceivedasacorruptRussianstooge.Therevolution
unleashedawaveofnationalistsentimentandwithitthenamingofstreetsandmemorial
eventsforthethreemenandtheirpeersacrossUkraine,wheretheyarehonoredfor
fightingRussiandomination.
TheissueisdivisiveamongJewsandnon-JewsinUkraine,where40percentofthe
populationareethnicRussians,andwherethousandshavediedsinceRussian-backed
separatistssparkedaconflictin2014betweenUkraineandRussia.
EfraimZuroff,theIsraeldirectoroftheSimonWiesenthalCenter,andsomeUkrainian
Jewishleadershaveprotestedthistrend,callingitawhitewashingofinvolvementinanti-
SemiticmurdersbyUkrainiansandNazis.
ButotherUkrainianJewishleaders,includingJosefZissels,chairmantheVaadorganization
ofUkrainianJews,arguethatthepreoccupationwiththissubject"leadstounnecessary
assignmentofblamethatservesonlyretrospectionbutfailstoofferavisionforthefuture"
inacountrywhereJewsenjoyequalrightsandsufferfeweranti-Semiticassaultsthanin
manyotherEuropeanstates,ZisselstoldJTAlastmonth.
DuringadebateonthesubjectlastweekinKiev,Zisselssaidhedoubted"thatJewish
booksdescribewhatsomeJewsdidtoUkrainians"thewaytheydescribeUkrainian
atrocitiesagainstJews.InUkraine,manybelievecommunistJewsbeararesponsibilityfor
Sovietoppression.
DolinskycondemnedZissels'statement,sayingitcreatesafalsemoralequivalenceand
perpetuatesanti-Semiticstereotypes.SovietJews,hearguedonFacebook,oppressed
UkrainiansnotasJewsbutasSovietsalongwithofficialsofvariousethnicities,while
UkrainiannationalistsmurderedJewswhileflyingtheUkrainiannationalistbanner.
[returntoContents]
#19
RussiaInsider
www.russia-insider.com
June1,2016
WhoAretheUkrainians?
DoesUkrainestillputyourheadinaspin?ASerbo-Lithuanianacademicgivesaclear
breakdownofexactlywhat'Ukraine'and'Ukrainians'are
ByVladislavSotirovi
[Graphicsherehttp://russia-insider.com/en/politics/who-are-ukrainians/ri14726]
TheauthorisaprofessorattheInstituteofPoliticalSciences,MykolasRomerisUniversity,
Vilnius,Lithuania.HewrotethisarticleespeciallyforRI.
UkraineisaterritoryinEastEuropethatwaspartofthewesternRussianEmpirefromthe
mid-17thcentury.Todayitisaanindependentstateandaseparateethnolinguisticnation,a
typicalexampleofBenedictAnderson'smodelofan"imaginedcommunity"-aself-
constructedideaofanartificialethnicandlinguistic-culturalidentity.
Before2014,Ukrainewashometosome46millioninhabitantsofwhom,accordingto
officialdata,around77percentdeclaredthemselvesasUkrainians.YetmanyRussiansdo
notconsidertheUkrainiansortheBelarusas"foreign"butratherasregionalbranchesof
theRussiannationality.
UnlikeRussia,thenationalidentityoftheBelarusortheUkrainianswasneverfirmlyfixed,
butalwayschangingandevolving.(OnUkrainianself-identityconstruction,see:KarinaV.
Korostelina,ConstructingtheNarrativesofIdentityandPower:Self-ImaginationinaYoung
UkrainianNation,Lanham,Maryland:LexingtonBooks,2014).
UkrainebetweenPolandandRussia
Theself-constructingidentityoftheUkrainiansafter1991isbasicallyseenvis--vis
Ukraine'stwomostpowerfulneighbors:PolandandRussia.Inotherwords,theself-
constructingUkrainianidentity(liketheMontenegrinortheBelarus)isonlyabletoclaimthat
UkrainiansareneitherPolesnorRussians.Whattheyreallyareisdebatable.The
existenceofanindependentUkraineasthenationalstateoftheUkrainiansisdoubtfulfrom
boththehistoricalandethnolinguisticperspectives.
TheSlavonictermUkraine,forinstance,intheSerbo-CroatKrajina,meansaBorderlandin
English-aprovincialterritorysituatedontheborderbetweenatleasttwopoliticalentities,in
thisparticularhistoricalcase,betweentheKingdomofPolandandtheGrandDuchyof
Lithuania,orRzeczpospolita,theRepublicofBothNations(15691795),andtheRussian
Empire.AGermanhistoricaltermforUkrainewouldbemark-meaningastate'sborderland
fromthetimeofCharlemagne,whichmostlycameintouseafterthe1667Treatyof
AndrussovobetweenRussiaandthePolish/LithuanianCommonwealth.
Inotherwords,UkraineandtheUkrainiansasanaturalobjective-historical-culturalidentity
neverexisted,sincetheywereconsideredasageo-politicalterritorybetweentwoother
natural-historicalentities(PolandandRussia).
All(quasi)historiographicalmentioningofthislandandthepeopleasUkraine/Ukrainians
beforethemid-17thcenturyarescientificallyincorrectandinmostcasespoliticallyinspired
forthepurposeofpresentingthemascruciallydifferentfromthehistoricalRussianethnic
genus(forinstance:AlfredasBumblauskas,GenuteKirkiene,FeliksasSabuldo
(sudarytojai),Ukraina:Lietuvosepocha,13201569,Vilnius:Moksloirenciklopediju
leidyboscentras,2010).
TheRoleoftheVatican
ItwastheVaticanthatwasbehindthecreationofthe"imaginedcommunity"of
"Ukrainians",forthepurposeofseparatingthepeopleofthisborderlandterritoryfromthe
OrthodoxRussianEmpire.
TheVatican'sclientAustria-Hungarydidthesamewithrespecttothenationalidentityofthe
Bosnian-HerzegovinianpopulationwhenitwasruledbytheAustro-HungarianMonarchy
from1878to1918,creatingatotallyartificialethnolinguisticidentity-the"Bosnians",as
opposedtothe(Orthodox)Serbs,whowereatthattimeastrongmajorityoftheprovincial
population)(.,-,
:,2000.)
ThecreationofanartificialethnolinguisticUkrainiannationalidentity,followedbyaseparate
nationality,waspartofawiderVaticanpolitical-confessionalprojectinitsstruggleagainst
EasternOrthodoxChristianity(theeastern"schism"),aspartofthePope'straditionalpolicy
ofproselytizing"infidels"withaviewtotheirreconversion.Oneofthemostsuccessful
instrumentsofsoft-reconversionusedbytheVaticanwastoforcepartoftheOrthodox
populationtosigntheRomanCatholicChurch'sUnionAct,thusrecognizingthesupreme
powerofthePopeandthedogmaticFilioque("andfromtheSon",i.e.,theHolySpirit
proceedsfromtheFatherandtheSon).
FormerOrthodoxbelieversbecameUniateBrothers,orGreekOrthodoxbelievers,then
pureRomanCatholics,changingalsotheiroriginalOrthodoxethnolinguisticidentity.For
instance,it'sclearinthecaseoftheOrthodoxSerbsintheZhumberakareaofCroatia,who
wentfrombeingOrthodoxSerbstoGreekOrthodox,thenRomanCatholicsandfinally
today"Croats".
TheBrestUnion
SomethingsimilaroccurredinUkraine.OnOctober9th,1596theVaticanannouncedthe
BrestUnionwithpartoftheOrthodoxpopulationwithinthebordersoftheRomanCatholic
Lithuanian-PolishCommonwealth(todayUkraine).(ArunasGumuliauskas,Lietuvosistorija:
vykiaiirdatos,Siauliai:SiauresLietuva,2009,44Didysisistorijosatlasasmokyklai:Nuo
pasaulioirLietuvospriesistorsikinaujausijulaiku,Vilnius:LeidyklaBriedis,(withoutyearof
publishing)108.).
Thecrucialissueinthismatteristhattoday,Ukraine'sUniatesandRomanCatholicshave
mostlyanti-Russian,Ukrainiannationalidenitities.Basically,boththepresent-dayUkrainian
andBelarusethnolinguisticandnationalidentitiesarehistoricallyfoundedontheanti-
OrthodoxpolicyoftheVaticanwithintheterritoryoftheformerPolish-Lithuanian
Commonwealththatwasinessenceanti-Russian.
LithuanianhistoriographyontheChurchUnionofBrestin1596clearlyconfirmsthat:
"...theCatholicChurchmoreandmorestronglypenetratedthezoneoftheOrthodox
Church,givinganewimpetustotheidea,whichhadbeencherishedsincethetimeof
JogailaandVytautasandformulatedintheprinciplesoftheUnionofFlorencein1439,but
neverputintoeffect-thesubordinationoftheGrandDuchyofLithuaniaOrthodoxChurch
tothePope'srule"[(ZigmantasKiaupaetal,TheHistoryofLithuaniaBefore1795,Vilnius:
LithuanianInstituteofHistory,2000,288]).
Inotherwords,therulersoftheRomanCatholicGrandDuchyofLithuania(theGDL)from
thetimeofLithuania'sbaptizingin13871413bytheVatican,plannedtoconvertall
OrthodoxbelieversoftheGDL,whoseoverwhelmingmajoritywereSlavs.Relationswith
Moscowbecameveryhostile,sinceRussiaassumedtheroleofprotectorofOrthodox
believers,makingtheBrestChurchUnionseemlikeacriminalactbyRomeanditsclient-
state,theRepublicofTwoNations(Poland-Lithuania).
learDivide
Today,itisindisputablethatthemostpro-westernandanti-RussianpartofUkraineisWest
Ukraine-thelandsthatwerehistoricallyundertheruleoftheRomanCatholicformer
Polish-LithuanianCommonwealthandtheformerHabsburgMonarchy.Itisobviousfrom
thepresidentialvotingresultsin2010,whenthepro-westernregionsvotedforJ.
Tymoshenko,whilethepro-RussianregionswentforV.Yanukovych.Itreflectsthepost-
SovietUkrainianidentitydilemmabetween"Europe"and"Eurasia"-adilemmathatapplies
toalltheCentralandEastEuropeannationswhohavehistoricallybeenbufferzones
betweentheGermanMittelEuropaprojectandtheRussianprojectofpan-Slavonicunity
andreciprocity.
Ingeneral,thewesternterritoriesofpresent-dayUkrainearemainlypopulatedbyRoman
Catholics,EasternOrthodoxandUniates,andtendtobenationalisticandpro-western.
EasternUkraineisinessenceRussophoneandsubsequently"tendstolooktocloser
relationswithRussia"[JohnS.Dryzek,LeslieTemplemanHolmes,Post-Communist
Democratization:PoliticalDiscoursesAcrossThirteenCountries,CambridgeNewYork:
CambridgeUniversityPress,2002,114].
[returntoContents]
#20
RussiaRemainsaByzantineStateandthatMayDoomIt,'Gazeta'EditorsSay
PaulGoble
Staunton,June1-ThephotographsofVladimirPutinsittingonwhatmanyfalsely
supposedwasthethroneofByzantineemperorshavepromptedmanytolaughbutothers
tonotethat"RussiaeventodayinmanywaysremainsanheiroftheByzantineempire,"
accordingtotheeditorsofMoscow's"Gazeta."
Russians"borrowedfromthislostempirenotonlytheirmainreligionbutalsoits
politicalhabits"inbothforeignanddomesticpolicy,"thepapersays,notingthatthese
include"sayingonething,thinkinganotheranddoingathird"therebymakingthe
relationshipofwordsandactionsextremelyproblematic
(gazeta.ru/comments/2016/05/30_e_8271917.shtml).
Butitalsomeansthatwhenevertheauthoritiesact,peopleimmediatelyask
themselveswhattheaction"really"meansbecausenoonecanbesurethatthereasons
theauthoritiesgivearetherealones.Andthisformofdoubletalk,thepapersays,israpidly
becoming"thenormofourpresent-dayliferatherthananexception."
"Byzantinepolitics,"theeditorssay,"iswhencriminalprosecutionscanservenot
onlyasaneffectivemeansofsharingoutpropertybutalsocanbeusedforremovingan
unsuitablepolitician."Buttheyhavetheeffectofmakinganyhonestdiscussionofwhat
shouldbedonealmostimpossible.
Thatisbecausesuchpoliticsare"impossiblewithoutacultoftheabstract,"aswas
shownbytherecentexchangebetweenAlekseyKudrinandVladimirPutin.Kudrin,thefirst
inseveralyearstochallengePutin'sforeignpoliciesofisolation,wasputinhisplacebythe
Kremlinrulerbecauseofthelatter'sideologicalunderstandingofsovereignty.
PutintoldKudrinthatRussiawouldnotbethefirsttoworktolessen"tensions"with
theWestbecausetodosowouldbetocallintoquestionits"millenniumofhistory"and
representakindof"'trading[away]ofsovereignty.'"
"Byzantiumbythewayalsoconstantlyappealedtoitsgreathistoryasthepreserver
oftheHellenicworld,""Gazeta"says.Itexistedintheendfor1058years,alongtimebut
"farfromarecordamongempires."
ButthemainthingabouttheexchangebetweenKudrinandPutinisthequestionit
raises:whyshouldpoliticalandeconomiccooperationwithothercountriesnecessarily
"leadto'thesellingoffofsovereignty?'"Inreality,nooneistryingtotakeitawayfrom
Russiaortobuyitasthisexchangemightsuggest.
"If,however,"oneunderstandsundersovereigntyonlytherighttodowhateverone
wantsregardlessofothers,thenitisextremelystrangetoconstantlycomplainthat'the
WestistryingtocontainRussia,'"thepapersays."Eveninordinarylife,ifsomeone
violatestheacceptedsocialorder,peopletrytosomehowstophim."
Moreover,"ifyouconsidersovereigntythestrengthofbordersandstatepower,then
thecurrentpolicyofisolationandconfrontationismaking[Russia]weakerandthus
strategicallyweakening[its]sovereignty."Cooperationcanbethebasisforstrengthening
both,somethingthatinwordsatleast,Putinbelievesis"thehighestvalue."
RussianshaveheldontotheByzantinetraditioneventhoughtheyhavepassed
through"ataminimum"fourdifferentstates-theMoscowprincipality,theRussianEmpire,
theUSSRand"nowpost-SovietRussia."Theydonotappeartohavereflectedonwhat
thatmeansoronthefactthat"Byzantiumisnotthemostsuccessful"ofmodels.
"Intheend,"theeditorssay,"inlargemeasurethankstoits'Byzantinepolicy,'itlost
sovereignty"anditscapitalbecameacityinTurkey.Andthathappened,theycontinue,
becausetheByzantinerulersremainedtoosuspiciousofthetradersandmerchantswho
couldhavebuiltupanddefendedthestate.
ManyByzantinesurvivalsattractvisitors-theicons,thechurches,andthe
pompousceremonies-butnoneofthemoffersanyguarantees.WhenPutinsatonwhat
hethoughtwastheByzantinethrone,heforgotthatin2012ViktorYanukovichhaddonethe
same-andnowUkraineisfighting"arealwarforthepreservationofitssovereigntyinthe
mostliteralsense."
[returntoContents]
#21
VineyardoftheSaker
http://thesaker.is
June1,2016
ARussianwarning
EugeniaVGurevich,PhD
http://thesaker.ru/
DmitriOrlov
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com
TheSaker(A.Raevsky)
http://thesaker.is
We,theundersigned,areRussianslivingandworkingintheUSA.Wehavebeenwatching
withincreasinganxietyasthecurrentUSandNATOpolicieshavesetusonanextremely
dangerouscollisioncoursewiththeRussianFederation,aswellaswithChina.Many
respected,patrioticAmericans,suchasPaulCraigRoberts,StephenCohen,PhilipGiraldi,
RayMcGovernandmanyothershavebeenissuingwarningsofaloomingaThirdWorld
War.Buttheirvoiceshavebeenallbutlostamongthedinofamassmediathatisfullof
deceptiveandinaccuratestoriesthatcharacterizetheRussianeconomyasbeingin
shamblesandtheRussianmilitaryasweak-allbasedonnoevidence.Butwe-knowingboth
RussianhistoryandthecurrentstateofRussiansocietyandtheRussianmilitary,cannot
swallowtheselies.Wenowfeelthatitisourduty,asRussianslivingintheUS,towarnthe
Americanpeoplethattheyarebeingliedto,andtotellthemthetruth.Andthetruthissimply
this:
IfthereisgoingtobeawarwithRussia,thentheUnitedStateswillmostcertainlybe
destroyed,andmostofuswillendupdead.
Letustakeastepbackandputwhatishappeninginahistoricalcontext.Russiahas
sufferedagreatdealatthehandsofforeigninvaders,losing22millionpeopleinWorldWar
II.Mostofthedeadwerecivilians,becausethecountrywasinvaded,andtheRussians
havevowedtoneverletsuchadisasterhappenagain.EachtimeRussiahadbeen
invaded,sheemergedvictorious.In1812NapoleoninvadedRussiain1814Russian
cavalryrodeintoParis.OnJune22,1941,Hitler'sLuftwaffebombedKievOnMay8,1945,
SoviettroopsrolledintoBerlin.
Buttimeshavechangedsincethen.IfHitlerweretoattackRussiatoday,hewouldbedead
20to30minuteslater,hisbunkerreducedtoglowingrubblebyastrikefromaKalibr
supersoniccruisemissilelaunchedfromasmallRussiannavyshipsomewhereinthe
BalticSea.TheoperationalabilitiesofthenewRussianmilitaryhavebeenmost
persuasivelydemonstratedduringtherecentactionagainstISIS,AlNusraandother
foreign-fundedterroristgroupsoperatinginSyria.AlongtimeagoRussiahadtorespondto
provocationsbyfightinglandbattlesonherownterritory,thenlaunchingacounter-invasion
butthisisnolongernecessary.Russia'snewweaponsmakeretaliationinstant,
undetectable,unstoppableandperfectlylethal.
Thus,iftomorrowawarweretobreakoutbetweentheUSandRussia,itisguaranteedthat
theUSwouldbeobliterated.Ataminimum,therewouldnolongerbeanelectricgrid,no
Internet,nooilandgaspipelines,nointerstatehighwaysystem,noairtransportationor
GPS-basednavigation.Financialcenterswouldlieinruins.Governmentateverylevel
wouldceasetofunction.USarmedforces,stationedallaroundtheglobe,wouldnolonger
beresupplied.Atamaximum,theentirelandmassoftheUSwouldbecoveredbyalayerof
radioactiveash.Wetellyouthisnottobealarmist,butbecause,basedoneverythingwe
know,weareourselvesalarmed.Ifattacked,Russiawillnotbackdownshewillretaliate,
andshewillutterlyannihilatetheUnitedStates.
TheUSleadershiphasdoneeverythingitcouldtopushthesituationtothebrinkofdisaster.
First,itsanti-RussianpolicieshaveconvincedtheRussianleadershipthatmaking
concessionsornegotiatingwiththeWestisfutile.IthasbecomeapparentthattheWest
willalwayssupportanyindividual,movementorgovernmentthatisanti-Russian,beittax-
cheatingRussianoligarchs,convictedUkrainianwarcriminals,Saudi-supportedWahhabi
terroristsinChechnyaorcathedral-desecratingpunksinMoscow.NowthatNATO,in
violationofitspreviouspromises,hasexpandedrightuptotheRussianborder,withUS
forcesdeployedintheBalticstates,withinartilleryrangeofSt.Petersburg,Russia's
second-largestcity,theRussianshavenowherelefttoretreat.Theywillnotattacknorwill
theybackdownorsurrender.TheRussianleadershipenjoysover80%ofpopularsupport
theremaining20%seemstofeelthatitisbeingtoosoftinopposingWestern
encroachment.ButRussiawillretaliate,andaprovocationorasimplemistakecould
triggerasequenceofeventsthatwillendwithmillionsofAmericansdeadandtheUSin
ruins.
UnlikemanyAmericans,whoseewarasanexciting,victoriousforeignadventure,the
Russianshateandfearwar.Buttheyarealsoreadyforit,andtheyhavebeenpreparingfor
warforseveralyearsnow.Theirpreparationshavebeenmosteffective.UnliketheUS,
whichsquandersuntoldbillionsondubiousoverpricedarmsprogramssuchastheF-35
jointtaskfighter,theRussiansareextremelystingywiththeirdefenserubles,gettingas
muchas10timesthebangforthebuckcomparedtothebloatedUSdefenseindustry.
WhileitistruethattheRussianeconomyhassufferedfromlowenergyprices,itisfarfrom
beinginshambles,andareturntogrowthisexpectedasearlyasnextyear.SenatorJohn
McCainoncecalledRussia"Agasstationmasqueradingasacountry."Well,helied.Yes,
Russiaistheworld'slargestoilproducerandsecond-largestoilexporter,butitisalso
world'slargestexporterofgrainandnuclearpowertechnology.Itisasadvancedand
sophisticatedasocietyastheUnitedStates.Russia'sarmedforces,bothconventionaland
nuclear,arenowreadytofight,andtheyaremorethanamatchfortheUSandNATO,
especiallyifawareruptsanywhereneartheRussianborder.
Butsuchafightwouldbesuicidalforallsides.Westronglybelievethataconventionalwar
inEuroperunsastrongchanceofturningnuclearveryrapidly,andthatanyUS/NATO
nuclearstrikeonRussianforcesorterritorywillautomaticallytriggeraretaliatoryRussian
nuclearstrikeonthecontinentalUS.Contrarytoirresponsiblestatementsmadebysome
Americanpropagandists,Americanantiballisticmissilesystemsareincapableofshielding
theAmericanpeoplefromaRussiannuclearstrike.Russiahasthemeanstostrikeat
targetsintheUSAwithlong-rangenuclearaswellasconventionalweapons.
ThesolereasonwhytheUSAandRussiahavefoundthemselvesonacollisioncourse,
insteadofdefusingtensionsandcooperatingonawiderangeofinternationalproblems,is
thestubbornrefusalbytheUSleadershiptoacceptRussiaasanequalpartner:
Washingtonisdeadsetonbeingthe"worldleader"andthe"indispensablenation,"evenas
itsinfluencesteadilydwindlesinthewakeofastringofforeignpolicyandmilitarydisasters
suchasIraq,Afghanistan,Libya,Syria,YemenandtheUkraine.ContinuedAmericanglobal
leadershipissomethingthatneitherRussia,norChina,normostoftheothercountriesare
willingtoaccept.ThisgradualbutapparentlossofpowerandinfluencehascausedtheUS
leadershiptobecomehystericalanditisbutasmallstepfromhystericaltosuicidal.
America'spoliticalleadersneedtobeplacedundersuicidewatch.
Firstandforemost,weareappealingtothecommandersoftheUSArmedForcestofollow
theexampleofAdmiralWilliamFallon,who,whenaskedaboutawarwithIran,reportedly
replied"notonmywatch."Weknowthatyouarenotsuicidal,andthatyoudonotwishto
dieforthesakeofout-of-touchimperialhubris.Ifpossible,pleasetellyourstaff,colleagues
and,especially,yourciviliansuperiorsthatawarwithRussiawillnothappenonyourwatch.
Attheveryleast,takethatpledgetoyourself,and,shouldthedayevercomewhenthe
suicidalorderisissued,simplyrefusetoexecuteitonthegroundsthatitiscriminal.
RememberthataccordingtotheNurembergTribunal"Toinitiateawarofaggression...is
notonlyaninternationalcrimeitisthesupremeinternationalcrimedifferingonlyfromother
warcrimesinthatitcontainswithinitselftheaccumulatedevilofthewhole."Since
Nuremberg,"Iwasjustfollowingorders"isnolongeravaliddefensepleasedon'tbewar
criminals.
WealsoappealtotheAmericanpeopletotakepeacefulbutforcefulactiontoopposeany
politicianorpartythatengagesinirresponsible,provocativeRussia-baiting,andthat
condonesandsupportsapolicyofneedlessconfrontationwithanuclearsuperpowerthat
iscapableofdestroyingtheUSinaboutanhour.Speakup,breakthroughthebarrierof
massmediapropaganda,andmakeyourfellowAmericansawareoftheimmensedanger
ofaconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheUS.
ThereisnoobjectivereasonwhyUSandRussiashouldconsidereachotheras
adversaries.Thecurrentconfrontationisentirelytheresultoftheextremistviewsofthe
neoconservativemovement,whosemembershaveinfiltratedtheUSFederalgovernment,
andwhoconsideranycountrythatrefusestoobeytheirdictatesasanenemytobe
crushed.Thankstotheirtirelessefforts,overamillioninnocentpeoplehavealreadydiedin
theformerYugoslavia,inAfghanistan,inIraq,Libya,Syria,Pakistan,theUkraine,Yemen,
Somaliaandinmanyothercountries-allbecauseoftheirmaniacalinsistencethattheUSA
mustbeaworldempire,notajustaregular,normalcountry,andthateverynationalleader
musteitherbowdownbeforeit,orbeoverthrown.InRussia,theirresistibleforcethatisthe
neoconmovementhasfinallyencounteredtheimmovableobject.Theymustbeforcedto
backdownbeforetheydestroyusall.
WeareabsolutelyandcategoricallycertainthatRussiawillneverattacktheUS,norany
EUmemberstate,thatRussiaisnotatallinterestedinrecreatingtheUSSR,andthatthere
isno"Russianthreat"or"Russianaggression."MuchofRussia'srecenteconomic
successhasalottodowiththesheddingofformerSovietdependencies,allowingherto
pursuea"Russiafirst"policy.ButwearejustascertainthatifRussiaisattacked,oreven
threatenedwithattack,shewillnotbackdown,andthattheRussianleadershipwillnot
"blink."Withgreatsadnessandaheavyhearttheywilldotheirsworndutyandunleasha
nuclearbarragefromwhichtheUnitedStateswillneverrecover.EveniftheentireRussian
leadershipiskilledinafirststrike,theso-called"DeadHand"(the"Perimetr"system)will
automaticallylaunchenoughnukestowipetheUSAoffthepoliticalmap.Wefeelthatitis
ourdutytodoallwecantopreventsuchacatastrophe.
[returntoContents]
Johnson'sRussiaList,6368CircleDrive,Chincoteague,VA23336
SafeUnsubscribejohn.besemeres@anu.edu.au
Forwardemail|Aboutourserviceprovider
Sentbydavidjohnson@starpower.netincollaborationwith
Tryitfreetoday
Senttime: 06/02/201603:01:24PM
To: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:2016-#100-Johnson'sRussiaList
It'saninterestingreadthatGrahamessay.AlotofwordstostatethatfolksMcFaultypifiesarereallystupid.
SentfrommyiPad
OnJun2,2016,at5:54PM,KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>wrote:
My'obsessive'friendonafavouredtheme.
SentfrommyiPad
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Date:2June201613:44:19AEST
To:"'wilsonkyle81@gmail.com'"<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>,"Wall,David(David.Wall@ona.gov.au)"
<David.Wall@ona.gov.au>,"'dantebbutt@yahoo.com'"<dantebbutt@yahoo.com>,Elizabeth
Buchanan<elizabeth.buchanan@anu.edu.au>,"RobertHorvath(rghorvath@yahoo.com)"
<rghorvath@yahoo.com>
Subject:FW:2016-#100-Johnson'sRussiaList
FortheumpteenthtimethisisalmostpureKremlinpropaganda,withsomehighlyselectiveand
prejudicialWesternmaterial,plusPaulGobleasapointofrebuttal.WhydoWesternuniversities
fundthisstuff?Itsgenerouslyfundedbythepetrostateitself.

From:DavidJohnson[mailto:david@cdi.ccsend.com]OnBehalfOfDavidJohnson
Sent:Thursday,2June20162:59AM
To:JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
Subject:2016#100Johnson'sRussiaList

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Johnson'sRussiaList
2016-#100
1June2016
davidjohnson@starpower.net
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"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"
"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"
Youseewhatyouexpecttosee
"Thebiggestcommunicationproblemiswedonotlistentounderstand.We
listentoreply."
Inthisissue
TODAY
1.RethinkingRussia:ThinkTankAtlas:RussianStudiesAbroad.(Withintroductory
remarksbyRichardSakwa,ThomasGraham,andYanVaslavskiy)
2.RussianMinistryofForeignAffairs:ForeignMinisterSergeyLavrov'sinterviewto
KomsomolskayaPravdanewspaperandradio,Moscow,May31,2016.
3.RossiyskayaGazeta:SergeiKaraganov,Russianforeignpolicy:newstage?-Groupof
establishedexpertshavepresentedtheirviewoftheprioritiesofRussianforeignpolicy.
4.www.rt.com:MedvedevcallsformajorefforttoimproveRussians'attitudetoward
businesspeople.
5.US-RussiaBusinessCouncil:Medvedev:EconomicGrowthWillDependOnChanging
PerceptionsOfBusiness.
6.UPI.com:Russiaexpectseconomicgrowthinayear.
7.RussiaDirect:DmitryDokuchaev,WhenwilltheRussianeconomyfinallyemergefrom
recession?DespitesomepositiveindicatorsintheRussianeconomy,itbadlyneeds
structuralreformstoresumestableeconomicgrowth.
8.www.rt.com:RussiagivesawayfirstfreelandinFarEast.
9.Izvestia:SergeiMarkov,PrimariesinRussia:Adifficultdevelopmentalstage.Onthe
needtoreducethegapbetweendeputiesandvoters.
10.Politkom.ru:InterviewwithpoliticalanalystKonstantinKalachev,byAleksandrIvakhnik:
KonstantinKalachev:'ObjectivesofPrimariesHaveGenerallyBeenAchieved.Meanwhile,
ProblemsinIndividualRegionsAllowPartyToPinCertainAlarmLightsonMapofRussia'
11.Meduza:ThestrangedeathofRussia's'DemocraticCoalition'
12.Vedomosti:RussianpapersayspressureonNGOleadersincreasing.
13.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:'Putin'speople':Themysteriousagencythatguardsthe
president'slife.TheheadofRussia'sFederalProtectionService(FSO),responsiblefor
protectingthelifeofthepresident,hasbeenreplaced.RBTHlooksintowhatthischange
meansandwhatthismostmysteriousofallRussianspecialservicesdoestoday.
14.www.rt.com:'Exemplaryintlrelations:'Russia-ChinatiesattheirpeakdespiteWestern
sanctions.
15.Sputnik:DiplomaticTightrope:WillRussiaSolveYetAnotherSyrianProblem.
16.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:BryanMacDonald,PoliticaldivisionoverUkrainesets
sceneforthawinRussia-EUrelations.ThereleaseofUkrainianpilotNadiyaSavchenkoby
MoscowandhintsinGermanyofarelaxationonsanctions,aswellaspositiveovertures
towardRussiabyEUCommissionPresidentJean-ClaudeJuncker,haveraisedrealhopes
thatRussiaandtheEUmaybereadytostartrebuildingtheirrelationship.
17.NewYorkTimes:IanBateson,UkraineDeclaresWaronJournalism.
18.TheTimesofIsrael:Ukrainehonorsnationalistwhosetroopskilled50,000Jews.
19.RussiaInsider:ladislavSotirovic,WhoAretheUkrainians?DoesUkrainestillputyour
headinaspin?ASerbo-Lithuanianacademicgivesaclearbreakdownofexactlywhat
'Ukraine'and'Ukrainians'are.
20.PaulGoble:RussiaRemainsaByzantineStateandthatMayDoomIt,'Gazeta'Editors
Say.
21.VineyardoftheSaker:EugeniaVGurevich,DmitriOrlov,andTheSaker(A.Raevsky),A
RussianWarning.
#1
RethinkingRussia
http://rethinkingrussia.ru
June1,2016
ThinkTankAtlas:RussianStudiesAbroad.(WithintroductoryremarksbyRichardSakwa,
ThomasGraham,andYanVaslavskiy)
RethinkingRussiaishonoredtopresentthefindingsofitslatestresearchproject"Think
TankAtlas:RussianStudiesAbroad."Thisreportthatisbasedonauniquedatabaseof
researchinstituteswhosesphereofinterestisRussiashedslightonthecurrentpositionof
RussianStudiesindifferentcornersoftheworld.http://rethinkingrussia.ru/en/wp-
content/uploads/2016/03/Think-Tank-Atlas.pdf
TheColdWarperiodwitnessedagreatinterestofWesternexpertsintheSovietUnion.
ThatlaidthegroundworkfortheemergenceanddevelopmentofSovietandCommunist
studiesasaspecificinterdisciplinaryfieldwhichfocusedontheSovietUnion,itssocio-
politicalregime,economyandculture.
Paradoxically,inthe1990sandthe2000stheWesterninterestinRussiaasasuccessorof
theUSSR,whichcollapsedintheearly1990s,startedtowane.Theend-of-historyeffect,
illusionsabouttheeffectivenessoftheunipolarworldorder,aswellasthemyopicexclusion
ofRussiafromtheranksofkeyinternationalplayers,polarizedtheacademiccommunity:
thedemandforspecialistsonCommunistStudiesfellconsiderably,andyoungand
prospectivescholarsdecidedtochooseotherregionsastheirareastudies.
TTatlascover
----
INTRODUCTION
RichardSakwa
Professor,UniversityofKentatCanterbury
Atatimeofintensifiedglobalcompetitionandthedeteriorationinthequalityofpolitical
relationships,ithasbecomemoreimportantthanevertohaveimpartialandaccurate
information.Inthiscontext,thinktanksoccupyanindeterminateposition.Theyareboth
generatorsofknowledge,buttheyalsofocusoninterpretation.Althoughmanypride
themselvesontheirimpartialityandindependence,othersarepartisananddedicatedto
advancingapredeterminedposition.Inotherwords,thinktankshaveallthevarietytypical
ofcitizensinademocraticcommunity.Someareinformedanddedicatedtothepursuitof
justiceandtruth,whileothersarecommittedtothedefenseofthestatusquo,privilegeor
someothergoal.Thethinktankcommunitythusconstitutesadistinctivesortofpublic
sphere,wheredebateanddiscussionisconductedonaglobalscale.
Thisvarietyanddiversityofambitionisgoalsarepowerfullycapturedinthisimpressive
studybyRethinkingRussia.Thinktanksareplacedbetweenconsultingcompanies,whose
dependenceonthemarketnexusisacknowledged,anduniversities,whichhave
traditionallybeendedicatedtothepursuitofimpartialunderstanding,ifnotwisdom.This
studyrevealsthewaythat'knowledge'isgeneratedbyanetworkoforganizationsthathave
aprivilegedrelationshipinsociety.Thinktanksarenodalpointsthatconcentrateexpertise
andadvocacy.TheyarebothEnlightenmentbodiesandatthesametimepost-
Enlightenment.Liketheintelligentsiaasawholeinthemodernworld,somearethe
equivalentsofwhatAntonioGramscicalled'traditionalintellectuals',committedtothe
independentstudyofsocialphenomena,whileothersare'organicintellectuals',reflecting
thepowerstructuresofagivensociety.
WhenitcomestothestudyofRussia,thisdistinctionbecomesallthemoreimportant.
RussiahaslongstoodinanorthogonalrelationshiptoWesternmodernity-certainlynot
rejectingtheachievementsofthatmodernity,butalwayslookingforamodeofintegration
intothatmodernitythatcanretaincertainsocially-definedelementsoftraditionand
difference.ThisreservedpositionmakesthestudyofRussiamultivalentandsusceptibleto
themostvaried-andpolarized-ofinterpretations.
WiththedeclineofRussia'sgreatpowerstatusafter1991,Russiawasnolessfascinating
asanobjectofstudy,butitwasnolongerperceivedtobeso
important.
ThiswasreflectedinthesharpdeclineinthenumberofintelligenceanalystsintheUS,
whichattheheightoftheColdWarnumberedsome13,000,andthenfelltonomorethan
1000in2012.Thenumberisnowanticipatedonceagaintorisesharplyaselementsof
whatsomecallanewColdWarbecomeestablished.Thispatternisreflectedmore
broadly,withthenumberofcoursesinRussianstudiesdecliningprecipitouslyafterthe
ColdWar.NowthatRussiaisonceagainperceivedasachallenge,ifnotathreat,interest
inthestudyofthecountryisonceagainrising.Thetraditionof'knowyourenemy'was
neverentirelytransformedintoaprogramof'knowyourfriend'.
Inthatcontext,thinktankshaveanimportantroletoplay.Theyarehybridgeneratorsof
socialknowledge.Thisstudydefinesthinktanksas'independentorautonomousentities,
thataimtoprovideexpertiseforgovernmentdecision-makingondomesticandinternational
issues'(p.8).Thisisagooddescription,butdoesnotcoverthewaythatmanythinktanks
seektoshapenotjustgovernmentpolicybutalsosocialattitudesandpublicorientations.
TheproblemofthestudyofRussiaisexacerbatedbythegeneraldeclineinareastudies.
Thiswastraditionallyoneofthepillarsinthestudyofindividualcountriesandregions,
encompassingthestudyoflanguages,literatureandculturecombinedwiththeanalysisof
historyandpolitics.Inpart,thistraditionalholisticapproachisunderminedbythedrastic
declineinthestudyofforeignlanguages,atleastintheAnglo-Saxonworld.Thedeclinein
linguisticskillsisoneofthegreatestthreatstoachievingadeepunderstandingofaforeign
country,andnowheremoresothaninthestudyofRussia.
Thisstudyfocusesontheanalysisof637thinktanksin85countries.Themethodologyis
robustinarrivingatthisfigure.
Independentanalysisiscriticalforeffectivepolicy-making,butasthestudyshows,fromthe
veryearliestdaystherehasbeencriticism.Thefirstthinktankwasestablishedin1831by
theDukeofWellington,andstillcontinuesastheRoyalUnitedServicesInstitute(RUSI),
andisthustheoldestthinktankintheworld.Theearliestthinktanks,asthestudyargues,
werecriticizedfortryingtoimpose'expertocracy'onsociety,andthusundermining
democracy.Thecritiqueofthetechnocraticmanagementofsocietycontinuestothisday,
althoughthestickhasnowbeenbentrathertoomuchtheotherway,andtoomuchpolicyin
conditionsofcontemporarycapitalistmodernityisdrivenbyideologyratherthanexpertise.
Thisstudyshowstherichdiversityofthethinktankworld.Thosefoundedinthesecond
decadeofthetwentiethcenturyorsoonafterhavenowbecomeglobalbrands.The
CarnegieEndowmentforInternationalPeacewasestablishedin1910,anditsvarious
manifestationsarenowbecomingagenuinelyglobalpresence,withofficesinBrussels,
Indiaandsomeotherplaces,butaboveallinMoscow.TheMoscowCarnegieCentreisone
ofthemostrespectedsourcesofindependentanalysisinRussiaaboutRussia,althoughit
remainstrappedinaveritablemaelstromofpoliticalpressures,rangingfromtheradical
liberalsontheonesidetoneo-traditionalistconservativesontheother,accompaniedby
bureaucraticpressuresfromabove.TheRoyalInstituteofInternationalAffairs-Chatham
Housewasestablishedin1920,anditsRussiaandEurasiaProgram(withwhichIproudto
beaffiliatedasanAssociateFellow)hasanimpressiveprogramofpublicationsand
meetingsonRussiaandthewiderregion,yetittooisnotimmunetotheintensepolitical
polarizationtowhichthestudyofRussiatodayisprey.Thelineofdivisionisbetweenthose
whoargueforengagementwiththepresentsystemonthegroundsthatthereremainsan
evolutionarypotentialtoacomplexsocialandpoliticalorganism,andthosewhocondemn
theregimeandallofitsworks.
Thestudynoteshowsome'thinktankshavemorphedintoinstitutesofthemostbiased
politics'(p.16),andthisisindeedthecase.Thestudyprovidessomenotableexamples,
butperhapsdoesnotgofarenough.
Therearenowawholerangeofthinktanksthatarededicatedtofightingthe'newCold
War',andthuseffectivelycreatetheconditionsforarenewalof
conflict.
Theseareclassic'organic'bodies,reflectingandpropagatingthevirtuesofaradicalized
Atlanticsecuritycommunity.Theseareindeedinstrumentsof'softpower',intheclassic
andoriginaldefinitionofthetermbyJosephNye-astheconsolidationofhegemonicpower
bynon-coercivemeans.AsNyearguedlater,inadoptingtheterm,bothRussiaandChina
failedreallytounderstandwhatNyehadinmind.Thechapterinthisstudyonsoftpower
adoptsaprudentlycriticalstanceontheterm.
Overall,thisisasophisticatedandimportantstudythattakesusintothecontemporary
thinktankworld.Asoneofthemostimportantactorsindemocratic
society,itisimportantthatweunderstandhowthinktanksworkandhowtheirrolein
societyandcontemporarypoliticsischanging.Aspoliticalpartiesundergoarelativedecline
astheaggregatorsandmobilizesofpoliticalpreferences,thinktankshavebecome
increasinglyimportantasthearticulatorsofsocialandpoliticaldemands.Thisstudythus
doesanimportantjobinhelpingusunderstandoneofthecriticalactorsincontemporary
politicalsociety.
---
ThomasGraham
ManagingDirectoratKissingerAssociates
Atatimeofgreatfluxinglobalaffairs,asRussiareassertsitselfagreatpower,itiscritical
thatRussiansgainabetterunderstandingofhowtherestoftheworldviewstheircountry.
ForRussia,asforothercountries,successinforeignpolicydependsinnosmallmeasure
onappreciatinghowothercountrieswillperceiveitsactionsandrespond.Whatdoother
governmentsknowaboutRussiaanditspriorities?WhatdotheybelieveRussia'sgoals
areintheworld,anddotheyseethemascompatiblewithorcontrarytotheirown?Howdo
theyassessRussia'scapabilities,bothnowandinthelongrun?WhatcanRussiadoto
shapetheviewsofothergovernmentsinwaysthatarefavorabletotheadvanceofRussian
interests?ThosearethequestionsthattheKremlinshouldbeasking.
Inthiscontext,thecurrentvolume,ThinkTankAtlas:RussianStudiesAbroad,makesa
majorcontributiontotheunderstandingoftheroleofnon-Russianthinktanksinshaping
publicopinionandgovernmentpolicyintheUnitedStatesandkeycountriesinEuropeand
Asia.ItthrowslightonwhatothergovernmentsthinkofRussia,whytheythinkthatway,and
whoprovidesthemanalyticalinsightforthosejudgments.
Astheauthorsnote,expertiseonRussiaintheUnitedStateshashollowedoutsincethe
endoftheColdWaragenerationago.
Inthepasttwotothreeyears,manyintheUnitedStates,policy-makers,businessleaders,
andacademicsalike,havebemoanedtheseemingdearthofRussiaexpertsandthe
foreignpolicycommunity'sfailureasawholetopredictrecentRussianactionsinUkraine
andSyria.Muchdiscussionisnowbeingdevotedtohowtorebuildthatexpertiseonthe
assumptionthatRussiawillcontinuetobeamajorplayerontheglobalsceneforyearsto
come.Whatconcretelythesediscussionswillleadstoremainstobeseen.
ThedeclineinRussianstudies,however,wasnotinthefirstinstanceaconsequenceofa
declineofinterestinRussia,asisgenerallyassumed.Rather,itwasamatterofachange
inthecharacterofthatinterest.DuringtheColdWar,theSovietUnionwasseenasanalien
system,espousinganideologyfundamentallyhostiletoAmericanvaluesandchallenging
theUnitedStatesforglobalsupremacy.Inallthebigissuesofthetime,ofwarandpeace,
ofnuclearweaponsandstrategy,ofeconomicdevelopmentandprosperity,ofstateand
society,theSovietUnionwasaplayerandmoreoftenthannotofferedanswers
diametricallyopposedtoAmericanones.Lockedinaglobal(withregardtobothterritory
andissues),existentialstruggle,theAmericanexpertcommunityfacedcomplexquestions
abouttheorigins,strengthsandvulnerabilities,thoughtanddecision-makingprocesses,
andfuturedirectionsandpossibilitiesoftheSovietsystem.Tofashionappropriate
responses,decisionmakersneededexpertswithprofoundknowledgeofRussia,orthe
SovietUnion.TheinterestinRussiaquaRussiawasintense.
UltimatelymillionsofdollarswerespentintheeducationoftensofthousandsofRussia
experts.ThiswasthetimewhenthegreatRussianresearchcenterswerefoundedat
HarvardandColumbia,whenRANDwascreatedwithafocusonSovietstudies,and
Russianlanguagestudieswererichlyfunded.
WiththeendoftheColdWar,theinterestinRussiadidnotfade.Indeed,theClinton
AdministrationputRussiaattheverycenterofitsforeignpolicy.
Thepresidenthimselfspokeofa"strategicalliancewithRussianreform."Butinasense
theUnitedStatesproceededasifitknewtheanswerstothebigquestionsofthepost-Cold
Warworld.WiththedemiseofMarxism-Leninism,Russiawasontheinevitablepathto
becomingafree-marketdemocracyalongAmericanlines.Thatwasthebasicmeaningof
the"endofhistory."AndsotheinterestwasnotinRussiaquaRussiabutintheknowledge
AmericansshouldbringtoRussianstofacilitateandacceleratethatinevitabletransition.
LittlethoughtwasgiventohowthedeepstructuresofRussianthought,history,orculture
wouldaffectthetrajectoryfewwouldadmitthatRussiacouldtakeanotherpath.Theexpert
community,supportedbythegovernmentandthemedia,wasinterestedinfindingthe
evidencetoprovethatitwasrightaboutthetransition.Littleattentionwaspaidtowhatwas
actuallyhappeninginsideRussia,andalmostnonewaspaidtoRussianforeignpolicy
(becauseRussiawaswrittenoffasamajorglobalactor).TheoryblindedAmericansto
reality.
Afterthefinancialcollapseof1998andthefirstyearsofPutin'spresidency,however,itwas
clearthatRussiawasnotmakingthetransitionthathadbeenanticipated.Amongother
things,PresidentPutinsoughttolinkcurrentdevelopments,particularlyinthepoliticalfield,
toRussia'srichtradition.Russia,hesaid,wouldnotblindlycopytheWestinrebuildingits
politicalsystemRussiandemocracywouldhaveitsownuniquecharacteristics.Expertsin
"transitology"werenotintellectuallypreparedtoacceptthisdevelopment-forthemitwas
littlemorethanadeviationfromtheappropriatereformcourse-andtheynevermadean
efforttostudyitonitsownterms.AndsotheUnitedStateswasleftwithanexpert
communitythatdidnotunderstandRussiandomesticdevelopmentsevenifitworkedon
Russia,whileitlargelyignoredRussiaasamajorplayerontheglobalstage.Formuchof
thepast25years,theproblemhasbeennotsomuchthedeclineofinterestinRussian
studies-althoughtherecertainlyhasbeenlessinterestandfewerfundsasattention
shiftedtoChinaandtheMiddleEast-asithasbeentheremovalofRussiafromRussian
studies.
Today,asRussiafiguresprominentlyagainasaglobalactorwithadistinctivepolitical
system,thechallengebeforetheUnitedStatesisnotonlyprovidingmorefundstoRussian
studiesbutputtingRussiabackintothosestudies.
TheUnitedStatesneedsRussiaexpertswhoareinfactexpertinRussianmatters.Much
canbedoneintheUnitedStatesitself,butcriticaltotheeffortisinternationalcooperation,
withthinktanksandinstitutionsinEuropeandAsia,andofcourseinRussiaitself,ifonly
becauseRussiahasplayeddifferentrolesinvariouspartsoftheworldandthoseroles
haveinfluencedlocalperceptions.Theintellectualinteractionwillenrichdiscussionand
leadtowardsamorecomprehensiveunderstandingofRussia.Itwillalsohelpusidentify
thebigquestionsaboutRussiaitself,aboutitsessenceasapoliticalsystemandglobal
actor.Inthisregard,thevolumeyouhavebeforeyouprovidesawealthofinformationfor
thinktanksandotherinstitutions
intendonbuildingatrulyinternationalnetworkforRussiastudies.Thereisnobetterplace
tostart.
---
YanVaslavskiy,PhDinPoliticalScience,
DirectoratRethinkingRussia
TheColdWarperiodwitnessedagreatinterestofWesternexpertsintheSovietUniondue
togoodhistoricalreasons.Thatlaidthegroundworkfortheemergenceanddevelopmentof
SovietandCommuniststudiesasaspecificinterdisciplinaryfieldwhichfocusedonthe
SovietUnion,itssocio-politicalregime,economyandculture.
wellasthemyopicexclusionofRussiafromtheranksofkey
internationalplayers,polarizedtheacademiccommunity.
Paradoxically,inthe1990sand2000stheWesterninterestinRussiaasasuccessortothe
USSR,whichcollapsedintheearly1990s,startedtowane.
wellasthemyopicexclusionofRussiafromtheranksofkeyinternationalplayers,
polarizedtheacademiccommunity:thedemandforspecialistsonCommunistStudiesfell
considerably,andyoungandprospectivescholarsdecidedtochooseotherregionsastheir
areastudies.
NowadaysthedesireofWesternelitestounderstandRussia,aswellasitssocioeconomic
developmentanddecision-making,isratherclear.
Giventheabovementionedchallenges,theInternationalAnalyticalCenter"Rethinking
Russia"considersthe"ThinkTankAtlas"tobehighlyrelevant.This
report,basedontheuniquedatabaseofresearchinstituteswhosespheresofinterest
includeRussia,shedslightonthecurrentpositionofRussianStudiesindifferentcornersof
theworld.
[returntoContents]
#3
RussianMinistryofForeignAffairs
ForeignMinisterSergeyLavrov'sinterviewtoKomsomolskayaPravdanewspaperand
radio,Moscow,May31,2016
Question:Let'sgrabthebullbythehorns.Wehavereceivedhundredsofdifferent
messagesandquestions.Manyofthemshowoutrightconcerninconnectionwithavery
difficultsituationregardingthiscountry.Theyhavetriedtocrushuswithsanctions,NATOis
movingclosertoourborders,andamissiledefencesystemisbeingdeveloped.Our
countryisundergoingunprecedenteddemonisationbyinternationalmedia.Theydon'twant
tohearus.TheUnitedStatesisleadingthisprocess.USPresidentBarackObamasaid
thattheAmericannationisexceptional,andothercountriesmustplaybytherulessetby
theUnitedStates.Theroleofavassalisclearlyinappropriateforus.Arewedoomedto
eternalrivalryandconflictwiththeconsolidatedWestledbytheUnitedStates,whichatany
momentcouldslipintoconfrontation,nottomentionadarkerscenario?Thepeopleare
increasinglysayingthattherewillbewar.Howsubstantiatedaretheseconcerns?
SergeyLavrov:Therewillbeno"worldwar".PresidentPutinsaidthisinVladimirSolovyov's
filmWorldOrder.IamconvincedthatresponsiblepoliticiansintheWestwillnotallowthis
tohappeneither,becausetheystillrememberwellthehorrorsoftheFirstandtheSecond
WorldWars.RussiasufferedthegreatestlossesduringthewarinEurope,Chinasuffered
thegreatestlossesinthePacificasitfoughtJapanesemilitarism.Again,thepoliticians
cannotletthathappen.
Ofcourse,wecanrelyonothers,butaboveall,weneedtothinkaboutusbeingprepared
topreventanotherwar.Suchattemptsarebeingmadeinregardtobuildingexcessive
militarycapabilitiesandinviolationofinternationaltreaties.
Youmentionedtheairdefencesystem.In2001,theUnitedStateswithdrewfromtheAnti-
BallisticMissileTreaty.Backthen,USPresidentGeorgeW.Bushsaid,inresponseto
concernsexpressedbyPresidentVladimirPutin,thatMoscowneednottoworryaboutit,
asitisnotaimedtowardRussia,andtheUnitedStatesunderstandsthatRussiawillbe
forcedtorespond.HealsosaidthatMoscowcouldtakeanystepsanddowhatitwants.
OurpeacefulneighboursfromEasternEuropeshouldalsokeepthisinmind.Weare
issuingcalmwarningmessagesthatwewilltakeretaliatorystepsifNATOmilitary
infrastructuremovesclosertoourborders.Theytendtoforgetaboutthisandblame
Russia.
We,asamatterofcourse,arebeingblamedfortheUkrainecrisisandtheSyriacrisis.
Theykeeptellinguswhatweshouldandmustdo.Nowtheywantustoprovideassistance
withregardtotheLibyacrisis.Soon,perhaps,wewillbeaccusedofwhat'shappeningin
Yemen.Thisisapremeditatedpolicy,Ihavenodoubtaboutit.Frankly,fromthebeginning
ofthe20thcentury,andevenearlier,fromthetimeofIvantheTerrible,noonewantedto
seeastrongandconfidentRussia.Throughoutthelastcentury,theBritishandthe
AmericanshavedonetheirbesttopreventEurasiafrommaintainingitsintegrity,meaning
theRussianEmpire,theSovietUnionandwhatishappeningnowintermsoftheeffortsto
promoteintegrationprocessesinthepost-Sovietspace.Allofthisfitsintotheconceptthat
theAmericanpoliticalscientistZbigniewBrzezinskioutlinedinhisbook,TheGrand
Chessboard,wherehedirectlysetthetaskofnotallowingthebarbarianstounite.That's
howhephrasedit.Clearly,thisisafigureofspeech,butitshowsclearlyenoughthe
underlyingtrainofthought.
Now,asforwhatweneedtodo.Clearly,Russiaisbeingdemonised,andthat'sokay,
becauseweshouldhavegottenusedtothis:withrareexceptions,ourpartnershavenever
beenopenwithusthroughouthistory.RemembertheFultonspeechdeliveredafew
monthsfollowingtheendofWorldWarII,afterthegreatvictoryoftheAllies?Duringthe
war,WinstonChurchillpubliclyadmiredStalin,sayingtheSovietUnionwasasolidpartner
andally,andthenmaderemarksthatstartedtheColdWar.I'mnoteventalkingabout
informationforwhichIcouldbeaccusedofparanoia.InthewakeoftheG7meetingsin
HiroshimaandaspartofPresidentObama'svisittoJapan,ourmediaandpublichadmajor
discussionsaboutthereasonsbehindthedecisiontodropatomicbombsonHiroshima
andNagasaki.ItisknownthatPresidentTrumanseriouslyconsideredconsigningabout20
Sovietcitiestothesamefate.
Letmerepeatthatitisnecessarytobefriendsandhavegoodrelationswitheveryone.This
isourprinciple.Russia'sforeignpolicyismulti-directionalandweareopentopartnership
andcooperationwithallthosewhoarepreparedtoworktogetheronthebasisofequity,
mutualadvantageandconsiderationofeachother'sinterests.However,inpromotingthis
policyweshouldrememberthatourmainalliesarestilltheArmy,theNavyandnowalso
theAerospaceForces.
Yourquestionwasveryexpansive-ittouchedonmanythings.Asforsanctions,inthe
contextofwhatIhavesaidUkrainewasonlyapretexttoratchetupsanctions.Thepolicyof
containingRussiabeganmuchearlier.AssoonastheyunderstoodthatPresidentVladimir
Putintakingofficein2000meantRussiawantedtobeindependentinforeignaffairs,
domesticaffairsandeconomicpolicy,theystartedlookingforwaystocontainus.Afterall,
theMagnitskyActwasadoptedlongbeforetheeventsinUkraine.Alotoffactshavebeen
revealed,includingindocumentariesthatarebannedinEuropeforsomereason.These
filmsandthefactstheydepictshowthatSergeyMagnitsky'sdeathistheresultofahuge
scambyWilliamBrowderwhoisnothingbutasleazycrook,which,Iamsure,many
peoplewhohavedealtwithhimknow.Sanctionswereimposed.LaterPresidentBarrack
ObamacancelledhisvisittoMoscowontheeveoftheG20summitinStPetersburgin
September2013becausehetookoffenceoverEdwardSnowden,whohadfledfromthe
USNationalSecurityAgencyandaskedRussiaforasylum.Wehadtograntitoutof
humanitarianconsiderations-oneofthereasonswassimplyhislackofapassport-hedid
nothavethedocumentsallowinghimtoleaveRussia.Theyalsotookoffence,started
bullyingandthreateningusalbeitnotasstronglyasinUkraine'scase.
Weperceivethecurrenteconomicrestrictionsimposedonusasawindowofopportunity
thatweshouldmakethemostofinordertostrengthenourfoodandtechnologicalsecurity,
continuediversifyingtheeconomyandforeigneconomictiesandfinallycreatealternative
effectivefinancialmechanismsandpaymentssystems.
Iwouldsayitisnotsoimportantforuswhentheanti-Russiansanctionsarelifted-we
haven'timposedthemandwon'tdiscussanycriteriaortermsfortheirremovalbutonly
howwecanmaximiseourcurrentpositionintheinterestsofourowneconomyand
development.
Question:Whywouldacountrythatwonthewarbegacountrythatlostthewartosigna
peacetreaty?WeshouldgiveJapanhalfofRussia'sterritorytogetittosignapeacetreaty
withus?WhydowehavetosurrendertheKurilIslandsandbegJapantosignapeace
treatywithus?
SergeyLavrov:Wedonotneedtodothis,wearenotdoingthis,andwillnotdothisinthe
future.WearenotsurrenderingtheKurilIslands,norarewebeggingJapantosignapeace
treaty.AsareliableandresponsiblepowerandthesuccessortotheSovietUnion,Russia
atsomepointconfirmedthatwearecommittedtoallobligationsassumedbytheSoviet
Union.TheseobligationsincludetheSoviet-JapaneseDeclarationof1956,whichwas
signedandratifiedbytheparliamentsoftheSovietUnionandJapan.Thedeclarationstates
thatthepartiesundertaketoconcludeapeacetreaty,andonlyafterthat,theSovietUnion,
asithadpledgedtodobackthen,may,asagestureofgoodwillandbasedonexpectations
oftheJapanesepeople,transfertheJapaneseislandsofShikotanandHabomaitoJapan.
Aboveall,thismoveispredicatedonourJapaneseneighboursunconditionallyrecognising
theoutcomeofWorldWarII.Unfortunately,notonlyinconnectionwiththeislands,but
morelikely,regardlessofit,ourJapanesepartnersarenotwillingtodoso.Japanremains,
infact,theonlyUNmembercountrythathasnotconfirmedtheprovisionsoftheUN
Charterthatsayseverythingthatwasdonebythevictoriouspowersisimmutable.
WearewillingtolookforwaystocooperatewithourJapaneseneighbours.Japanisagreat
country,agreatnationthathasacomplicatedhistory,includingahistory,toputitmildly,of
badrelationswithitsneighbours.However,weareallinterestedinhavingtheJapaneseand
theRussianpeople,aswellasthepeopleofallothercountries,liveinharmonyandbenefit
fromcooperation.Talkingaboutamutuallyacceptablesolutiontotheterritorialdispute
withoutrecognisingtheoutcomeofWorldWarIIisimpossible.Thisiswhatwekeeptelling
ourJapanesepartnerseverytimewetalkwiththem.Wearealsosayingthatthereare
manyopportunitiestoimprovethissituation.Inparticular,duringthelastroundof
consultations,weproposedconsideringthehistoricalaspectofthisissue,sothateveryone
isclearthatWorldWarIIputanendtothestoryoftheseislandschanginghands.
WedorealisethatthegravesoftherelativesofJapanesepeopleareontheseislands.
Somepeoplewhousedtoliveontheseislandsarestillalive.Wehavespecialvisa-free
travelprogrammesforJapanesepeoplevisitingtheSouthKurilIslands.Theresidentsof
theSakhalinRegion,bytheway,canalsogotoJapanaspartofvisa-freegroups.Wehave
foralongtimenowbeeninvitingourJapaneseneighbourstoengageineconomicactivity
ontheseislandstogetherwithus.Theycanmakeinvestmentsandcreatespecial
economicareas.Theycandoallofthis.IhopethatourJapanesecolleagueswillfocus
preciselyontheseactivities.Atleast,wehavemadesuchinvitationsavailabletothem.I
thinkthatthiswillclearmanyissuesfromtheagenda.Ifwhatmattersisthattheseislands
areopentoJapanesevisitorsandbusinessmen,Japan-sponsoredhumanitarianactions,
theneverythingelseisprobablynotasfundamental.
Question:Whatistheessenceofthenewapproachtotheso-called"northernterritories"
issue,whichwasspelledoutbyJapanesePrimeMinisterShinzoAbeinSochinotlong
ago?
SergeyLavrov:Thereisnothinginitthathasnotbeendiscussedbefore.This,infact,
meansthatourdialogueisreturningtothetrackoutlinedbackin2003duringaRussian-
Japanesesummitandreaffirmedin2013whenJapanesePrimeMinisterShinzoAbewas
inRussiaonanofficialvisit.
Theideaisthatinordertoaddressanyproblemsthatemergeoroldproblems,weneedto
stepupourpartnershipinalldirectionsandmakeitfullyfledgedandstrategic.This
concernstradeandeconomicties,particularlytheinvestmentfield(mutualinvestment)and
thehumanitarianexchangesthatarestronglydesiredbyourpeoples.Andthisrelatesinno
smallparttoourcooperationinmattersregardingsecurityandstrategicstability.Wewould
verymuchlikeourJapanesecolleaguestosettheirforeignpoliticalcourseontheirown.
Question:Whoarehardertodealwith,WesternorEasterndiplomats?
SergeyLavrov:Asforwhatit'sliketodealwithWesternandEasterndiplomats,ifby
EasternyoumeanAsiaandAfrica,Iwouldsaythateverythingdependsontheperson.
ThereareWesterncolleagueswhopretendtobeunawarewhentheyhavenothingtosay,
oractverystraightforwardly,andthereareourChineseorJapanesepartners,whoare
morewell-versedandbetterprepared.Italldependsontheperson.
ThestyleofdiplomacyinAsiaslightlydiffers,ofcourse,fromthatintheWest.Itismore
delicate,subtle,refinedandlessrude.Earlier,onlytheUnitedStatesdictateditswillto
everyoneandstilldoes.Notlongago,USPresidentBarackObamasaidthattheUnited
Statesshoulddetermineallglobalrulesbyitself,whiletherest,includingChina,whichhe
singledout(butevidentlyRussiaaswell),shouldobeythoserules.Unfortunately,thislong-
standingdiseasewillbehardtocure,butitwillpass.Regrettably,Europeisfollowingsuit,
resortingtosimilarmethodsandadoptingsimilarhabits,goingstraighttosanctionsatthe
firstsignoftrouble.Earlier,thiswascharacteristiconlyoftheUS.Itwillallsortitselfout
overtime.
Question:Onefifthofthemorethanathousandquestionswehavereceivedfromour
audiencesconcernsUkraine.TheMinskprocesswaslaunchedoverayearago.Many
believethatitisslippingandwillnotproduceanypositiveresults.Isthereanyhopeforthe
MinskPackagetobeimplemented?
SergeyLavrov:Ofcourse,thereisstillhope.Moreover,wemustdemandits
implementation,justaswehavebeendoing.TheMinskAgreementswerecoordinated
throughverydifficulttop-leveltalksandweresubsequentlysignedbyKiev,Donetsk,
Lugansk,Russia,FranceandGermany.Theyaretheonlydocumentsthatspelloutthe
conflictingsides'obligationsandtheguaranteesofEuropeansandRussia.Wemustnot
allowtheseagreementstofollowthepathoftheagreementsignedbyViktorYanukovych,
ArsenyYatsenyuk,VitalyKlitschkoandOlegTyagnibokthenightofFebruary21,2014,in
thepresenceofandwitnessedbyrepresentativesofFrance,GermanyandPoland,onlyto
beviolatedtheverynextmorning.OurFrench,GermanandPolishcolleaguesshamefully
keptsilent.Ifweallowthosewhostagedthestatecoupandcurrentlyconstitutetheprimary
politicalforceintheUkrainianestablishmenttofollowsuitwiththeMinskPackage,allofus
willloseface,includingtheUNSecurityCouncil,whichapprovedthesignedMinsk
Agreementsintheircurrentform,withoutsuggestinganyamendments.
PresidentofUkrainePetrPoroshenkoandForeignMinisterPavelKlimkinmakeconflicting
statementsregardingtheircommitmenttotheMinskPackage,sayingonethingtotheir
peopleandtryingtoactmoreconstructivelyatmeetingswiththeirforeignpartners.We
hopethatatleastpartofthesestatementswillbeactedupon.Thesituationisverysimple.
Theyareagaindebatingwhatcamefirst,thehenortheegg,andwhatstepsshouldbe
takennext.SecurityhasunexpectedlybecomethekeyissueforPresidentPoroshenko.He
isnowtalkingnotonlyabouttheceasefirebutalsoaboutsomeinternationalforces
ensuringsecuritythroughoutDonbass.ThelatterisnotstipulatedintheMinskAgreements.
Donbasswillneveragree,andundertheMinskAgreements,absolutelyallstepstowardsa
settlementmustbecoordinatedwithDonbass.
Regardingsecurityonthedividingline,westandfirmlyforstrengtheningtheroleand
responsibilityoftheOSCEmission,forincreasingthenumberofitsobserverssothatthey
overseethecreationofasafedistancebetweentheconflictingparties,aswasagreed,and
alsomonitorthesides'permanentsiteswhereheavyweaponsarestored.Ultimately,you
candelaytheprocessindefinitelybytalkingendlesslyaboutinsufficientsecurity.Kiev
insiststhatpoliticalreformwillonlybeginwhensecurityismaintainedat100percentfor
severalweeksorevenmonths.Thisisunrealistic.Nothingofthekindhaseverbeen
achievedinanyotherconflict,withoutfirstsettlingallpoliticalaspects.Regardingthe
politicalaspects,alltheproverbialballsareinUkraine'scourt.Iamreferringprimarilytothe
specialstatusofDonbass,whichwassetforthintheMinskAgreementsandwhichnow
needstobeformalisedinalawandprotectedbytheconstitution.Thereisalsotheissueof
amnesty,becauseamnestymustbepartofthesettlementnowthatthetideintheconflict
hasturned.AlawonamnestyhasbeendraftedandadoptedbytheVerkhovnaRada
(parliament),butPresidentPoroshenkohasnotsignedit.Idon'tknowwhy.Wearetoldthat
amnestycanonlybeapprovedbasedonthe1996law,underwhichallsuspectsareto
applyforamnestyindividuallyandtheirapplicationswillbeheardbyUkrainiancourts
individually.Thisisnotwhatwehaveagreedupon,andthiswillcertainlypreventthe
implementationoftheMinskAgreements.Andlastly,electionsaretobeheldafter
Donbass'sspecialstatusisformalisedintheconstitutioninkeepingwiththelawon
amnesty.Alltheseissues-theelections,thelawonthisspecialstatusandtheamendment
totheconstitutioninkeepingwiththeMinskPackage,whichclearlystipulatesthis-mustbe
coordinatedwiththeconflict-affectedareasintheDonetskandLuganskregions.
Noneoftheabovehasbeendone,despitetheeffortsmadewithintheContactGroupwhere
directdialoguebetweenKiev,DonetskandLuganskisonlypossible,andwithinthe
NormandyFormat,whichcannotreplacetheContactGroupnomatterhowmuchKiev,or
evenBerlinandParis,maywantthis.Weareawareoftheirmoodandhaveheard
proposalsthatthefourparties-France,Germany,RussiaandUkraine-negotiatea
settlement,afterwhichRussiawillbeexpectedtoconvinceDonbasstojointhe
negotiations.WhenweexplainthatadirectdialoguebetweenDonbassandKieviswhatis
needed,aGermanrepresentativeaskedcynicallyandratherinsolently,whydoweinsiston
directdialogueifitwouldtakeRussia15minutestobendDonbasstoitswill.Thisis
preciselywhathesaid.
Question:ItwouldbebetteriftheybentKiev.
SergeyLavrov:ThisisexactlywhatIplannedtosayinconclusionofmyanswertoyour
question.IbelievethatnotonlytheGermans,French,manyothersinEuropeandthe
UnitedStatesseethatKievisavoidingthecommitmentsmadebythePresidentofUkraine.
Question:IhavebeenworkinginDonbasssincethebeginningandwitnessedtheMay11
referendum.ItisveryhardtoexplaintopeoplewhytheCrimeareferendumwasrecognised
andnotthereferendumintheDonetskandLuganskrepublicsthatwasasfairandsincere
asinCrimeaandtookplaceinthepresenceofjournalists.
Wehavereceivedphonecallsonthissubject:
WhyhasRussiabeenpayinglessattentiontoUkraine'ssoutheast?IsdevastatedDonbass
notasgoodastheblossomingCrimea?
I'mcallingfromDonetsk.Don'tgiveuponDonbass.ThisisRussianlandwhereRussian
peoplelive.Wearefacingahardship,andarewaitingforyourhelp.Wewon'tsurvive
withoutit.Please,don'tgiveuponus.
Whydoesn'tRussiamakeastatementtotheeffectthatifUkrainecontinuestosabotage
theMinskAgreements,RussiawillhavetoofficiallyrecognisetheDonetskandLugansk
people'srepublicsandenterintotreatieswiththem,aswithAbkhaziaandSouthOssetia?
SergeyLavrov:First,wehaven'tgivenuponsoutheastUkraine,andalwaysrememberit.
Weareproactiveinsupportingit,andnotjustpolitically.Theseeffortsincludehumanitarian
aidandinitiativestoresolveeconomicissuesandtoensureadequatelivingconditions,
includingissuesthatFranceandGermanyhadpromisedtoaddress.Theyofferedtomake
thebankingsystemoperational,butwereunabletodoso,andacknowledgedit.Thisgoes
tosaythatyoushouldputyourtrustinpartners,butrelyonyourself.Russiaisinvolvedin
resolvingthisandotherissuesrelatedtothelivingconditionsinDonbass,andwillcontinue
doingso.
AmongtheprovisionsoftheMinskAgreementsonspecialstatusforDonbass,thereisthe
righttodirectandunrestrictedeconomicandotherrelationswiththeRussianFederation.
ThisisakeycomponentthatenabledbothRussiaandDonetsktosupporttheMinsk
Agreements.
Asforthereferendums,youareawareoftheconditionsinwhichthereferendumwasheld
inCrimeaandhowithappenedintheDonetskandLuganskregions.AftertheDonbass
referendum,theleadersoftheseself-proclaimedrepublicsdidnotrefusetohavea
dialoguewithKiev.ItwasthisdialoguethatledtotheMinskPackage.
Question:Theyweretalkingaboutindependence.
SergeyLavrov:LetmereiteratethattheyhaveneverrefusedtotalktoKiev.Itistruethat
theyproclaimedindependence,whilesayingthattheywereopentonegotiations.Russia,
GermanyandFrancesupportedthisconversation,whichpavedthewayfortheMinsk
Agreements.Youcanslamthedoorandfollowtheexampleofthosewhothreaten
recognition,sanctionsandthelikewhilebeingunabletousediplomaticandpoliticaltools.I
stronglybelieveanapproachlikethistobecounterproductive.Thiswouldprovideapretext
totheWesttostoppressuringKiev,beitverymoderately.Kievisunderpressure.Theyare
noteagertosaysoinpublic,butwhentheytalktoUkrainiansbehindcloseddoors(we
knowthisforsure),theyarequitetoughindemandingthatalltheagreementsreachedin
Minskbehonoured.
Ithinkthatitisveryimportanttoensurethatthedocumentsthatweresignedandapproved
bytheSecurityCouncilareimplemented,evenifitservesnootherpurposethandiscipline.
Weareinauniquesituation.Thereiscurrentlynowaythatthisdocumentcanbe
challengedbyanythingelse,andnooneistryingtocounteritwithanyotherdocument.It
cannotbecontested.Ifwenowsaythatourpatienceisupandthatwe'llgotheotherway,
theywilljustsay:fine,goahead.Inthatcase,theWestwouldstopexertingpressureonthe
Ukrainianauthorities.
DonbassisnottheonlyreasonforpressuringUkraine.TheOSCEmissionmandate
extendstoallofUkraine.Russiaregularlyinsiststhatthemissionissuereportsnotjust
aboutDonbassandthedemarcationline,butalsoonotherUkrainianregions.Horrible
thingsarehappeningthere.EventhoughourOSCEcolleaguesmakethingslookbetter
thantheyactuallyare,theystillacknowledgeviolationsofminorityrights,includingof
Hungarians,andmafiapermeatingregionslikeTranscarpatie.InmanycasesVerkhovna
RadaMPsarebehindtheorganisedcrime,eventhoughthereportsfailtomentionit.
Itisforthatreasonthatweneedtopreservethislegalandinternationalframeworkand
safeguarditinallpossiblewaysfromattemptstoundermineitfromwithinorfromthe
outside.
Question:IwouldliketocontinueaboutMaidan.IworkedinUkraineforeightyearsandsaw
theMaidaneventsunfoldwithmyowneyes.Ithinkitwasanoutrightfailureasfaras
Russiandiplomacyisconcerned.BackinApril2013,KomsomolskayaPravdawrotethat
thegeneralmoodinGaliciawastogotowaragainsttheRussians.Theydidnothingto
concealtheirplans.Wewroteaboutit,butnobodypaidattention.Allpro-Russianpolitical
observersthatworkedinUkrainebackthensaidthattheywereunabletoinfluenceinany
wayRussia'sAmbassadortoUkraineMikhailZurabovormeetwithhim.Meetingswiththe
Ambassadorareheldonceayear,onJune12,duringRussiaDaycelebrations,usually
accompaniedbyvodkaandbears.Therearenootheropportunities.Russiawasnotready
whenMaidanbrokeout,andjustlostoutinthissituation.Wehavereceivedmany
questionsonwhyRussia'sAmbassadortoUkraineMikhailZurabovisstillinoffice.
SergeyLavrov:Idon'tthinkthatthisisamatterthatcanbediscussedinpublic.
Question:Whynot?ItconcernsRussia'sinternationaldiplomacy.
SergeyLavrov:AmbassadorMikhailZurabovcanandwillreporttotheRussianForeign
MinistryandtheStateDumaoftheRussianFederalAssembly.I'mnotsurethatI
understandtheessenceofyourquestion.
Question:WhatIwanttosayisthatwewerenotreadyforMaidan.
SergeyLavrov:ThisiswhatI'mtalkingabout.YousaythatwelostatMaidan.Ifyouareso
sureaboutthisandifitisoftensaidthatRussiandiplomacyfailed,whatalternativesare
implied?Whatshouldwehavedone,ifpeoplearesosurethatthiswasourfailure?
Question:TheUSEmbassydidnotscrimponpropagandaagainstusandpaidforsites
costingathousanddollarseach(peanutsforsuchalargecountryasours).Thesesites
trashedourreputationforadecade.TheAmericansdidnotconcealthattheyspent$5
billionforpropagandaagainstRussiaandostensiblyforfreedomofspeech.Our
embassieslackinitiativeingeneral.ThevoiceofanAmericanambassadorisalwaysheard
andthevoiceofoursisalwayssilent-withfewexceptions.IcanciteLebanonasan
examplewhereRussianAmbassadorAlexanderZasypkinisdoingagreatjob.Thesituation
inLebanonchangeddramaticallywhenhewastherebecausepeoplecontinuouslylistened
tohisinterviews.Ourambassadorsandembassiesarelikebunkerstheyliveintheirown
littleworldsanddonotleave.
Ortakeanotherexample.ThecurrentUkrainianambassadortoCroatiasimply"raped"the
localmedia.HewasevengivenacolumninanewspaperwherehesmearsRussiaona
dailybasis.
Ourpeopledonotspeakout.Wherearethey?Whyaretheyhiding?Whydon'ttheyofferto
dointerviews?Thisisabigproblem.IworkinallkindsofcountriesandeverywhereIgoI
amtoldaboutgatheringsdevotedtoAlexanderPushkinandPyotrTchaikovsky.Whois
interestedinthemnow?
SergeyLavrov:IcannotagreewiththisbecauseRussianambassadorsintheUnited
States,Lebanon,IraqandSyriaandRussia'sspecialenvoysattheUNinNewYorkandthe
UNOfficeinGenevaareknownasnotjustpeoplewhoregularlyappearonTVbutwho
workextremelyhard.
Youshouldunderstandonething:appearingonthefrontpagesofnewspapers,television
andradioisfarfromalltheydo,andinmostcasesit'snotthemainpartoftheirwork.You
mentionedpayingfordifferentsites.AsfortheUSEmbassyinKiev,therewerenotjust
paymentsbutawholefloorofthesecurityservicewasandisstilloccupiedbyFBIorCIA
employeesorbothplustheNationalSecurityAgency.
Whatwasthealternative?Werewealsosupposedtopaypoliticalscientistsforworkingon
somesites?WhenthethugsshowedupontheMaidanwedemandedthattheyobeythe
UkrainianConstitution.Theydidn'twanttoandasaresultreachedanagreementwith
ViktorYanukovychthroughoppositionfigures.ThisagreementwassignedonFebruary21
andactuallyrequiredthatYanukovychgiveuphispresidentialpowerstouseforceandhis
monopolyontheuseofforce,andagreetoearlyelections.Inotherwords,hadthis
agreementbeencarriedout,hewouldhavebeenremoveddemocraticallyalongtimeago
(needlesstosay,hewouldn'thavebeenre-electedaseveryoneassumes),andsimilar
peoplewouldhavebeeninpowernowbutwithoutsomanyvictimsandsomuch
destruction.Whatareyousuggesting?Whenthesethugsbegantocommitexcesseson
theMaidan,shouldwehavesentintroopsorwhat?Pleaseexplain.
Question:Wewereholdingallthecards.
SergeyLavrov:Whatdoyoumean?
Question:AdulyelectedpresidentfledtoRussia.Amilitarycouptookplaceinacountry
thatisclosetous,afriendofours.Thepresidentaskedustohelp.Wehadeveryrightto
helpgetthingsundercontrol..Abunchofthugsseizedpower-thisisanarmedcoup.Why
didn'twedothis?
Iwilltellyouwhy-becausewekeepclingingtoatheoryofstatesovereigntythatbindsour
hands.TheAmericanshavedevisedatheoryofhumanitarianintervention,whichimpliesan
obligationtointervene.Meanwhile,wekeeptalkingaboutsovereigntyandhavealready
becomeentrappedbyit.Wedonotproduceideologies.Wealsohavetherightto
intervene.
SergeyLavrov:Letusavoidjargon.Tellmedirectly,doyouthinkweshouldhavesentin
troops?
Question:Yes,weshouldhave.Itwasourdutytogetinvolved,throughhumanitarian
intervention.
SergeyLavrov:Idisagree.DoyouwantwarbetweenRussiansandUkrainians?
Question:Itwouldn'tbewar.
SergeyLavrov:Waragainsttheirownpeoplewasengineeredbythosewhomthecoup
d'etatbroughttothetop.IthinkthatRussiansandUkrainiansareasinglepeople.Ifyou
thinkweshouldmakewaronourownpeople,Icategoricallydisagree.
Question:Itwouldn'tbeunleashingwar,butdealingwithagangthatseizedpower.
SergeyLavrov:Nowthisganghasthesupportofahugenumberofpeople,someofthem
wearingmilitaryuniforms,othersnotsufficeittomentionthenationalbattalions,whatever
youmightthinkofthem.Therearetensofthousandsofsuchpeople.Soyouare
suggestingthatwedealwithtensofthousandsofUkrainians?
Question:Theygatheredtensofthousandsonlyafterwegavethematterupandletthings
takecareofthemselves.
SergeyLavrov:Thearmysworeallegiancetothenewregime,andthenewregimemight
haveorderedthisarmytofighttheRussianArmy?That'sanawfulidea,Ican'tevenbring
myselftoimagineit.
Question:Therewasnewslastweek,whichalarmedmanyofourreadersandlisteners,
concerningNadezhdaSavchenko.Readersaskwhatyouthinkofthereleaseofacriminal
whokilledourjournalists.TheythinkshewillsnatcheveryopportunitytoprovokeRussia.
Havewedonetherightthing?
SergeyLavrov:Ithinkwehave.Wehadtobringourcitizensback,andwedid.Itisour
principledpositiontoexchangeallforall,notonlyinsuchsituationsasthatofSavchenko
andourcitizens,butalso,andmoreimportantly,fortheimplementationoftheMinsk
Agreements.IthinkitshouldbeUkraine'sownheadacheifSavchenkoplaysdirtytrickson
us(butthen,whowouldnotplaydirtytricksonusinUkraine?Therearepracticallyno
Ukrainianpoliticiansleftwhowouldspeakwithusnormally).
Question:It'strue.
SergeyLavrov:Sheisaveryparticularwoman.Shelookswell-nourished,forthatmatter.I
thinkeveryoneseesnowwhatherhystericalhungerstrikeswereworth.Shewantsto
becomepresident,makewaronus,andshewantssomethingelsetoo.
Question:Meanwhile,shewalksaroundeverywherebarefoot.
Question:AllcountriesoftheMiddleEastarecloselymonitoringtheRussian-Turkish
confrontation.LocalpoliticalexpertsrememberwellRussianPresidentVladimirPutin's
warningthatthey"wouldnotgetawaywithtomatoes."Now,however,thingshavetakenan
unexpectedturn.Afewdaysagowewerethefirsttosaythatwewouldliketoresume
contacts.ThismightbeveryChristianbutwhatabouttheprincipleof"aneyeforaneyeand
atoothforatooth?"MyEasternfriendsandpoliticalexpertsaskthefollowing.Youwerenot
theonewhobeganthewarwithTurkeyandyouarenottoblameforit.TheSovietUnion
wouldneverhaveletanyonegounpunishedforoneofitsplanesbeingshotdown.Whyare
theRussiansnowthefirsttooffertheolivebranch?Orientalpoliticalscientistsseethisas
RussiabeinghumiliatedbyIslam.
SergeyLavrov:Let'snottakethisanyfurther.Itislikescoringagoalonyourself.Youor
yourcorrespondentsmakeassessmentsthatarefundamentallyuntrue,andproceeding
fromtheirownerror,drawconclusionsonhowtoevaluateouractions.
WehaveneversaidthatwewouldofferTurkeytheolivebranchoranythingelse.Why
wouldwe?WesaidthatTurkeyshouldapologiseandcompensatethelossesincurredasa
resultofthiscriminalact,thismilitarycrime.WhenPresidentVladimirPutinwasasked
whetherTurkeywastakinganysteps,hesaidthattheyareadvancingalongdifferent
channels.
Question:Arewereadytorestorerelations?
SergeyLavrov:No,PresidentVladimirPutinsaidthatwearereadytoreviewthepossibility.
But,first,Turkeyshoulddowhatit'ssupposedtodo.Butwhyisthisbroughtupoutof
context?
Ifyouonlywanttoseeapanicky,defeatistmoodamongRussianleadersthenit'llbea
difficultconversation.See,youdon'thavetobeinsultingtoshowthatyoudisapproveof
yourpartner'sactions,andthisiswhatwasdone.And,ofcourse,theydidn'tjustgetaway
withatomatobanthereismuchmoretoit.Sonowtheyaretryingtocontactusthrough
varioussecurechannelsandaresuggestingthatcertaincommitteesbeestablished.In
December,whentheTurkishForeignMinistermetwithmeinpassingattheOSCE,he
suggestedthatweestablishacommitteeoragroupthatwouldincludediplomats,military
expertsandintelligenceofficers,andIdon'tknowwhomelse.
Question:Havetheymadeanyheadwayoverthepastsixmonths?
SergeyLavrov:Ofcoursenot.Soourstanceremainsunchanged.
Question:Wearedemandingthreethings-anofficialapology,liabilityforthoseresponsible
andcompensationfordamages,right?
SergeyLavrov:Ofcourse.
Question:RegardingSyria,IhavevisitedSyrianKurdistan.Syrian,IraqiandTurkishKurds
wanttoknowwhetherRussiahascometostayorwhetherthiswillbeatemporary
operation.TheywantRussiatostay,soasecondcentreofpowercanemergeintheMiddle
East.Arewetheretostay?
SergeyLavrov:AcentreofpowerhasalreadybeenestablishedintheMiddleEast.Idon't
knowwhetherthisisthesecondor,maybefirstcentreofpower.Yousee,theUS-led
coalitionwhichisperceivedbymanyasthefirstcentreofpowerissimplymarkingtime.I
spokewithUSSecretaryofStateJohnKerrytheotherdayandaskedwhytheyhave
stoppedbombingtheterroristsandwhytheyhavenotflownasinglecombatmissionto
preventtheillegalshipmentofoiltoTurkey.
Question:Andwhatdidhesay?
SergeyLavrov:Hesaidtheyweredoingthis.Theyareonceagainguidedbythefaultylogic
thatterroristsaremixedwithfriendlyoppositionforces,thatyouhitthisfriendlyopposition,
whileattackingterrorists,andthatthisshouldbeavoided.ButIremindedhimthat,inlate
February,theyhadpledgedtousthatunitsconsideredpatrioticandloyalbythemand
cooperatingwiththemwouldberemovedfrompositionsoccupiedbyJabhatal-Nusra.Over
threemonthshavepassed,andnothinghasbeendone.Theyhavenowaskedusfor
severalmoredaysbeforetheirplan,underwhicheveryonewhohasnotjoinedthe
ceasefireisalegitimatetarget,regardlessofwhethertheyarelistedamongtheterroristsor
not,swingsintoaction.Theyaskedforseveralmoredaysinordertorespond,andthese
severaldaysexpirethisweek.
Atthispoint,thecoalitionisalmostidle,withmilitantsandequipmentcontinuingtomovevia
theTurkishborder.AnoffensivewhichisbannedbyvariousagreementsandUNSecurity
Councilresolutionsisobviouslybeingprepared.Theyaretellingusthattheso-called
"good"unitsarereadytostopviolatingtheceasefirebutthatapoliticalprocessshouldbe
launchedforthispurpose.Membersofadelegationthathasbeenestablishedprimarilywith
Turkishsupport-theso-calledHighNegotiationCommittee-aresayingthattheycannot
takepartinthetalksbecauseSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadhasnotresigned.This
circusacthasbeendraggingonforalongtime.
Itoldmycolleaguethat,honestly,inouropinion,theyaresimplytryingtomisleadus.He
swearsthatthisisnotso,andthatthemilitaryauthoritieswill,atlast,startcoordinatingtheir
operations.Irepeat,wehavealreadytoldthemstraightthatthisdoesn'tsuitus,andthatwe
cannolongerlistentothesestories.WehaveobligationswiththelegitimateSyrian
Governmentandauthorities,wearethereattheirrequest,andnooneinvitedthecoalition.
TheUS-ledcoalitionwasinvitedtoIraq,anditwasnotinvitedtoSyria.ButSyrianleaders
havesaid(andtheUSwasinformedaboutthis)that,ifthecoalitioncoordinatesits
operationswiththeRussianAerospaceForces,thentheywouldnotofficiallyprotestand
wouldconsiderthemtobeourpartnersinthefightagainstterrorism.Tobehonest,thisis
theonly,althoughfragile,legalfoundationforthecoalition'spresence.
EveryoneadmitsthattheinitialRussianoperationanditsfirstfewmonthsdrastically
improvedthesituation.TurkeyandourWesterncolleagueswantthistidetostopand
probablytoreverseitself.Theydon'twanttoseeSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadremain
inpowersimplybecausetheysaidfiveyearsagothathemuststepdown,andtheynow
carenothingaboutthepeopleofSyria.Buteveryonenowunderstandsthattherewillbeno
politicalprocesswithoutal-Assad.TheUNSecurityCouncilresolutionandvarious
decisionsonSyria,adoptedsince2012withourproactiveinvolvement,containnodemand
orhintthatSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assadmustresign.Onthecontrary,theysaythat
thepeopleofSyriaalonehavearighttodecidetheirfuture,andthatthepoliticalprocess
shouldinvolveallforcesofSyriansocietywithoutexception,includingethnic,political
forces,religiousdenominationsandalloppositiongroups.
Twomonthsago,PresidentVladimirPutinannouncedadecisiontoscaledownRussia's
militarypresenceinSyriaafterobjectives,aimingtopreventthestate'sgradual
disintegrationthatwasleadingtotheseizureofDamascusbyterrorists,hadbeenmostly
accomplished.Iassureyouthatthereareenoughforcesandresourcesinthecountryto
neutralisethecurrentterroristthreats.Weareaddressingthisissue.Itisonlyimportant
thatourUScolleaguescomprehendtheirresponsibility.Ibelievethatweareseriously
pressingthemagainstthewall.Butitistruethattheyarecapable,craftyandevasive
people.
IfyouwatchnewsreportsaboutthedeploymentofRussianmilitaryunitsthere,youwillsee
thattheydidnotjustarrive,pitchtents,dosomeshooting,removetheirtentsandleave.
Thisshouldansweryourquestionastowhetherwehavecometostayornot.
Question:SoisUSSecretaryofStateJohnKerryabletogiveyouananswertoour
president'squestion:"Doyourealisenowwhatyou'vedone?"
SergeyLavrov:YouknowI'vespokentohimquitealotaboutit.USSecretaryofStateJohn
Kerryisaverynicepersontotalkto.SinceJanuary,wehavehadover30telephone
conversationsandmetfourtimesinperson.Iamsuretherewillbemoremeetingsand
telephonetalks.
ButwhenwehavetheopportunitytodiscussthesituationinSyria,heinsiststhat
somethinghastobedonenow.Iinturnneedtoremindhimofthestepstakenthusfar:in
June2012,USSecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,European,Chinese,ArabandTurkish
representativesandIsignedtheGenevaCommunique.Thedocumentstipulatedtheneed
tolaunchatransitionalpoliticalprocesstoformajointgovernment-and-oppositionstructure
basedontheirmutualconsent.ThenRussiabroughtthispapertotheUNSecurityCouncil
forapprovalbuttheAmericansdeclinedtosanctionitbecauseitdidn'tcontainaprovision
allowingthemtooustSyrianPresidentBasharAssadorintroducesanctionsagainsthimif
hefailstoleave.Iaskedhim:"Wasitsupposedtobeincluded?Wespentsevenhoursin
Genevadiscussingit?!"ThentheAmericansbluntlyrefusedtoapprovetheCommunique.A
yearlater,thechemicalweaponsthreatturnedup.Wehelpedtoresolvethesituationand
insistedthattheresolutionestablishingtheRussian-Americanplan,withtheconsentofthe
Syriangovernment,toremoveandeliminatechemicalweaponsshouldincludeasection
approvingtheGenevaCommunique.NowtheysaySyrianPresidentBasharAssadis
violatingtheCommunique.ItisexactlylikeinDonbass-aprincipleofdirectdialogue.But
theyprefertoavoidit.InDonbass,theauthoritiesevadethedialoguewhileherethe
oppositionavoidsit.ThisisourWesterncolleaguesforyou.
DuringthediscussionswithUSSecretaryofStateJohnKerry,Iaskedhimwhytheywere
makingthesamemistakesastheydidinIraqin2003.Hesaidhewasasenatorthenand
votedagainstthemove.Great,fine.BarackObamaalsovotedagainst.Yes,Iraqwasa
mistake.AndwhataboutLibya?ItwasunderHillaryClintonandwasalsoamistake.They
violatedtheUNSecurityCouncil'smandatethatsealedtheairspacetopreventairstrikes-
buttheystillbombedthecountryfromtheairandeventuallybrutallymurderedLibyan
PresidentMuammarGaddafi,nomatterwhatsortofpersonhewas.Thiswasalsoawar
crime.AndnowLibyaisfloodedwithterroristssupplyingmilitants,weaponsallthewayup
toMali,theCentralAfricanRepublicandChad.Butthemistakewas,Kerrysaid,notin
violatingtheUNmandatebutinfailingtodeploylandtroopsinthewakeoftheairstrikes,to
consolidatethesituationandsuppresstheterrorists.Iremindedhimofhowtroopswere
broughtintoAfghanistanandIraqearliertocombatterroristsandhowtheyhadtopullout,
leavingthesecountriesindisarray,asZhvanevskywouldsay,likeawomanwhohasbeen
leftindistress.AfghanistanandIraqwereabandonedinafarworsesituation:theformeris
onthebrinkofdisintegration,whilethelatterhasbeentornapartbythecivilwar.The
Americansagreeitwasamistakebutprefertoletbygonesbebygones.Theywantusto
followtheiragendabutwealsohaveourownagendainSyria.Itisclearthatwemusttryto
coordinateourapproacheswithatleastsomerespectforthelessonshistoryhastaught
us.
Question:TheTurkishKurdshaveurgedRussiatomakepublicitspositionontheongoing
Kurdishgenocide.Forexample,thecityofDiyarbakirhasbeenfullydestroyed,alongwith
manyothercities.AcivilwarisunderwayinTurkey,yetRussiahasnotinterceded.
TheSyrianKurdswonderwhyRussiaissupplyingarmsto[IraqiKurdishleader]Massoud
BarzanibutnottotheSyrianKurdswhoarereallyfightingISIS.IraqiKurdistanistheUS
playground,andMassoudBarzaniisapro-TurkeypoliticianwhohasallowedTurkishtroops
toenterIraqiKurdistan.
GuerrillasfromtheKurdistanWorkers'Party,whoarefightingintheQandilMountains,have
alsoaskedforassistance,attheleastbydiplomaticmeansastheSovietUniondid,ifwe
can'thelpthemmilitarily.
SergeyLavrov:Weareprovidingthiskindofassistance.Itispossiblethatweshouldspeak
aboutthismoreoften,althoughtheForeignMinistry'sspokesperson,MariaZakharova,
regularlymentionstheissueoftheKurdishgenocideinTurkeyduringherbriefings.
Inprinciple,weoftenspeakaboutTurkey'spositionontheKurds.Weonlydemandone
thing-thatTurkeywithdrawthetroopsitsenttoIraqallegedlytostrengthenIraq's
sovereignty,asformerTurkishPrimeMinisterAhmetDavutogluclaimed.Thisis
unacceptable.IbelievethatwhatTurkeyisdoingdeservesbroaderpublicattentionfromour
Westernpartners.Theybelievethatthe"allies"willsettletheproblembetweenthemselves.
Thisisnotagoodposition.WhenTurkeyviolatedGreece'sairspace,followingwhich
Russiamadeseveraltoughstatements,NATOSecretaryGeneralJensStoltenbergsaid
that"bothareNATOallies"whocansettletheirproblemthemselves.First,whatabout
Cyprus,whichisnotaNATOmemberandwhoseairspaceTurkeyregularlyviolates?
Second,whatkindofapositionisthis?Doesitmeanthatyouarefreetodoanythingyou
wantifyouareaNATOmember?TheEUhasthesameproblem:EUmembersarenot
accountabletotheCouncilofEurope.Theysaytheywillonlyconsiderhumanrights
violationsofthenon-EUmembersbecausetheyhaveaspecialprocedureforviolations
withintheEUcountries.
WewillcontinuetoinsistthatTurkeystopitsarbitraryactivitiesinIraq,primarilywithregard
totheKurds.Apartfromobviousneo-Ottomanaspirations,therearealsoeconomic
considerations:Turkeyisseekingtogainafoothold[inIraqiKurdistan]andwaitforthe
outcomeofthebattleforMosulinordertotakecontrolofitsoilfields.AndthenTurkeywill
waitfortheinternationalcommunity'sreaction.Iraqcouldfallapartbythen,butTurkeywill
alreadybeentrenchedthere.Thisisobvious.Therefore,Ifullyagreewithyouandyour
Kurdishdialoguepartners.
AsforIraqiKurdistan,wesendweaponstofightagainstterroriststoIraqandIraqiKurdistan
withtheagreementandconsentoftheIraqigovernment.Thisistheonlyprinciplebywhich
weoperate.
TheSyrianKurdsarereceivingairsupportandotherkindsofassistance.Frankly,wehave
beenactively,andnotentirelyunsuccessfully,workingtoconvincetheSyriangovernment
tocooperatewiththeKurdsinsteadoftryingtorestricttheKurds'futureroleintheSyrian
state.
Ofcourse,nobodywashappywhentheDemocraticUnionParty(PYD)declaredafederal
region,butitwastheKurds'reactiontoTurkey'sposition.WehaveagreedthattheGeneva
talksonSyriamustbeinclusiveintermsofparticipants.However,thePYD,which
represents15percentofSyria'spopulation,hasbeenbannedformthetalksbecauseone
country-Turkey-vetoeditsparticipation.Whenweexpressedouroutrageoverthematter,
sayingthattheKurdsshouldbeallowedtoattendthetalks,ourAmericanandother
partnersandtheUNSecretary-General'sSpecialEnvoyforSyria,StaffandeMistura,told
usthatiftheKurdscometoGenevatheRiyadhgroup(HighNegotiationsCommittee)
wouldleaveandstopcooperating.Butthatgroupdidn'tcooperatebutwalkedoutofthe
talksanyway.AndMrStaffandeMisturadidnotprotestagainstthis,althoughwehad
instructedhimtoholdthenextroundoftalksbeforeRamadan.Heplanstoresumethe
talksintwoweeks,orevenafterRamadan,becauseofultimatumsadvancedbythiswilful
party.TheythoughttheKurds'presenceatthetalkswouldhaveanegativeeffect,butthe
effectwasthesameevenwithouttheKurds.The[opposition]hasshownitstruecolours.
Therehasbeenasecondcaseofdesertion:MohammedAlloushfromJayshal-Islamhas
walkedoutofthepeacetalks.Jayshal-Islamisaterroristandanextremistgroup.However,
attemptshavebeenmadetojustifyitsactions,possiblybecauseJayshal-Islam's
operationswereexpectedtoweakenPresidentBasharAssad'spositions.Thetacticof
usingterroriststoattainone'sgoalsanddecidingtheirfateaftertheyhavedonetheirbitisa
dead-endstrategy.Also,severalmembersoftheHighNegotiationsCommitteewho
representedthemoderateoppositionhaveleftthepeacetalks,too.Ibelievethatallthe
radicaloppositionnegotiatorswilleventuallyleavethetalks.Yetweneedtoactfast,andthe
KurdsmustparticipateintheGenevaprocess.Discussingtheconstitutionoranyother
structurethatshouldbeformedbytheSyriangovernmentjointlywiththeoppositionwithout
theKurdswillresultinthecollapseofthetalks.
Question:YouareoneofthethreemostrespectedpoliticalfiguresinRussia.Whatare
yourplansforthefuture?
SergeyLavrov:Tobehonest,Ihavenevermadeplansformylife,rather,thingshavejust
happenedoftheirownaccord.Iwasofferedworkinvariousplaces,butallthroughthe
ForeignMinistry.First,IhadaproposaltoworkinSriLanka,thenitwasintheDepartment
forInternationalEconomicOrganisations.WhenAndreiKozyrevleftfortheRSFSRForeign
Ministry,thelatedeputyminister,VladimirPetrovsky,offeredmethepostofheadoftheUN
Departmentin1990.Afterthe[August1991]coupandbeforetheBelavezhaAccords,
AndreiKozyrevinvitedmetojointheRSFSRForeignMinistryandbecomehisdeputy.This
isnotasecretnowandIdon'tthinkhewillmindmyspeakingofit.IsaidthenthatIwasnot
readyforsuchamoveanddidnothavethedesireinanycase.Heaskedmewhynot.I
saidthatIhadonlybeendepartmentheadforayearandhadbroughtwithmepeoplewhom
IknewandonwhomIcouldrely.HeproposedthatIbringthemallwithmeintotheRSFSR
ForeignMinistry.Isaidthattheywouldn'tleave.Heaskedwhynot,andIsaidthattheyhad
swornanoathtoservetheircountry.Inquiteemotionaltones,hesaidthatwewereall
hidingourselvesbehindtheSovietUnion'ssign,sittingthere,scared,withnoideaofwhat
mighthappennext,andmeanwhile,hehadallthesedelegationscoming.Youmightrecall
thatvariousWesternvisitorswerebusydoingtheroundsforalltheSovietrepublicsback
then.IremindedhimofthejointagreementbetweenMikhailGorbachevandBorisYeltsin
thattheSovietForeignMinistrywouldprovideassistancetotheSovietrepublics'foreign
ministries.Wehelpedthemiftheyneededinterpreters,helpedthemwiththeirtransport
needs.Theforeignministriesinthedifferentrepublicswerestilljusttinyatthattimeand
couldnotcopewithallthetasksathand,butwehelpedthemout.
Ilefttheoffice.AndreiKozyrevwasupset,unhappy,butevenso,noonefiredmeafter
thoseevents,andinApril1992,VitalyChurkinandIwereappointeddeputyforeign
ministersovernightwithoutourhavingtoaskforanything.
TheonlytimethatIturneddownanofferwaswhenYevgenyPrimakovsuggestedthatI
movetoWashington.Ihadalreadyspent18monthsinNewYorkatthatmoment.Hewasa
greatman,butIhadnochoicebuttoarguewithhimthen.WhenItriedtoturndownthe
offer,hesaidIwaspoliticallyignorantandsimplydidnotunderstandthesituation.Iasked
himwhyhewassoinsistentIshouldtakethisjob.HesaidhethoughtIwasthebest
person.IaskedhimwhatwassospecialaboutWashingtonthatIoughttogothere.Hesaid
Washingtonwasthemostimportantplace.IaskedpermissiontoquoteYevgenyPrimakov
thegreatthinker,theonewhosaidthat"weareseeingtheemergenceofamultipolarworld,
whichwillbecomeacounterbalancetotheunipolarworld".Isaidthatthismultipolarworld
wasindeedtakingshape,butnotinWashington,whereifyouneededtodosomething,you
firsthadtomakeanappointment,withoutbeingsurethatyou'dactuallygetone,butinNew
York,whereyoujusthavetoentertheUNbuildingforeveryonetocomerunningyourway,
bringingyouinformation,peopleyouneedtotalktoandwhoneedtotalktoyou.Thereis
roomtomanoeuvreintheUN,becauseyouhave15peopleintheSecurityCouncil(five
permanentmembersand10non-permanentmembers),andyouhavetheGeneral
Assembly,whereyoucanthrowideasarounddirectly,withouthavingtogothrough
someoneelsefirst.YevgenyPrimakovreallywasagreatmanandheagreedwithmeinthe
endandleftmeinNewYork.
Question:Howcanwetranslateforeignpolicysuccessestothedomesticpoliticalstage?
DoyouthinkweshoulderectamonumenttoYevgenyPrimakov?PerhapsnotinMoscow,
butinoneoftheregions,inPerm,say?
SergeyLavrov:Asfarascombiningandinterlinkingforeignanddomesticpolicygoes,the
priorityistoguaranteesecurityandthebestpossibleeconomicconditionsforRussia's
development.ThisisourForeignPolicyConcept'smainpriorityandwearekeepingthis
sameobjectiveinplaceinthenewdraftoftheForeignPolicyConceptthatwearecurrently
preparingonPresidentVladimirPutin'sinstruction.Thismeansthatwemustensurean
environmentinwhichourbusinessdoesnotfacediscriminationandourcitizenscantravel
aroundtheworldwithoutfearofdiscriminationorunlawfulactsagainstthem.Sadly,wedo
notalwaysmanagetoguaranteethis.TheAmericans,forexample,literally'steal'our
peopleinviolationofthelawsofthecountriesonwhosesoiltheseabductionstakeplace.
ThiswasthecaseofViktorBout,KonstantinYaroshenko,RomanSeleznevanddozensof
otherpeople'snatched'fromEuropeandothercountries.
ButIamsurethatthisworkwillbringresults,andindeed,wearealreadystartingtoseethe
fruits.Ifsomecybercriminalisarrested,wewouldbethelasttotrytoprotecthim.Afterall,
thesepeoplestealmoneyinRussiaandabroad.Butheshouldbeputontrialhere.We
havetheRussian-USconsularconventionandotheragreementsthatprovideforthe
reciprocaltransferofsuspectsincriminalcases.Butthishasbecomeabigproblemnow.
Weareconcernedingeneralforthesafetyofourcitizenstravellingabroadfortourismor
simplyonprivatebusiness.Thisisanimportantaspectofourwork.
Anotheraspectofourworkistodoallwecantoensurethatgovernmentsincountries
wherewehaveintereststreatRussianbusinesswithgoodwillandfairness.Wealsohave
someconcreteresultsinthisarea.Ofcourse,thismustbereciprocalandbusinesshasto
beactiveintheseeffortstoo.Rosatom,forexample,worksveryactivelyinmanypartsof
theworldandhasarecordnumberoforders.Thisimmediatelyhelpstocreatealong-term,
stableandsolidbasefordevelopingstrategicrelationswiththecountryinquestion.The
nuclearenergysectorisalong-termsectorinvolvingbigprojectsandcovering
construction,training,andstorageandtreatmentofspentnuclearmaterial.
Weseeinthisworkachancetomakeuseofourcapabilitiesandourpossibilitiesfor
helpingwithdomesticreform,butofcourse,itisultimatelynottheForeignMinistry'sjobto
carryoutdomesticreformanddevelopment.
AsforYevgenyPrimakov,wealreadyhaveaprojectforerectingamonumenttohim.We
startedthinkingaboutthisideaimmediatelyafterthesadeventofhispassing.Inadditionto
thedecisionsPresidentVladimirPutinhasalreadytakenaboutimmortalisingMrPrimakov's
memory(thereistheYevgenyPrimakovmedalandtheYevgenyPrimakovscholarshipsfor
studyattheMoscowStateInstituteofInternationalRelations(MGIMO)andMoscowState
University,andhisnamehasbeengiventotheInstituteofWorldEconomyandInternational
Relations),wethinkthatitwouldbegoodtoraiseamonumenttohim,andIplantomake
thisproposaltothePresident.
Asforwheretodothis,MrPrimakovwasprimeminister,directoroftheForeignIntelligence
Service,foreignminister,andanacademician.Thereisthebuildingwherehelived,butwe
wouldratherseeamonumentonSmolenskayaSquare,inthesquarebetweenthe
BelgradeHotelandtheForeignMinistrybuilding.Thisisaplacewherepeoplewouldalways
betoseethemonumentandpayMrPrimakov'smemorytheirrespects.AsIsaythough,
thismatterhasnotbeenexaminedyet.ThisisthefirsttimeIhaveformulatedthisproposal
outloud.Perhapsitwouldhavebeenbettertomaketheofficialproposalfirst.
Tobecontinued...
[returntoContents]
#3
RossiyskayaGazeta
May25,2016
Russianexpertoutlinesforeignpolicyproposals
SergeiKaraganov,Russianforeignpolicy:newstage?-Groupofestablishedexpertshave
presentedtheirviewoftheprioritiesofRussianforeignpolicy
In2016itwillbe25yearssincethedisintegrationoftheSovietUnionandtheemergenceof
thenewRussiafromitsruins.Itispossibletosumuptheresults,andtheroadtothefuture
needstobeplanned.
AgroupofmembersoftheCouncilonForeignandDefencePolicy(SVOP)hasdecidedto
presenttothestateandsocietyitsvisionofRussia'snewforeignpolicy.Wealsoconsider
therevivalofacreativeforeignpolicydiscussiontobeuseful.Inaworldoftotal
propaganda,itiseasytobecomehostagetootherpeople'sandyourownmyths.Thekeen
Russiandebateofforeignpolicythatwasmaintainedinthe1990shelpedtopreventan
irrevocablesurrenderofpositionsoranattemptatsuicidalrevenge,anditpavedtheway
forareturntomorerealisticandnationallyorientedpolicies.Werememberwith"legitimate
satisfaction"thatourSVOP,"liberalinternationalists"asourveteranswerethencalled,
playedaprominentroleinthedebates.
SVOPhaspreparedpropositions,whichwearealsopresentingnow(seewww.svop.ru,
www.globalaffairs.ru).Thepropositionsconsistofananalysisofglobalandregionaltrends
andtheachievementsandfailuresofRussianpolicy,andtheycontainproposalsonforeign
policy,whichwethinkarebeneficial.Thearticlepresentsaverybriefsummaryofthelast
twosectionsofthepropositions.
Policyresults
Russianforeignpolicyofthepastdecadehasonthewholebeensuccessful,andithasat
timesbeenbrilliant.Ithasmettheworld'schallenges.Theweaklinkisthestagnationofthe
economy.Sofarforeignpolicyhascompensatedforthisweakness.Butthereservesof
suchcompensationareclosetodepletion.Militarymighthasbeenreconstitutedatanew
qualitativelevelandsofarwithtolerableexpenditure.Theresultisthat,albeitatahighcost,
theexpansionofWesternallianceshasbeenhaltedonterritoriesthatRussiaconsiders
vitallyimportantfromthepointofviewofsecurity.TheWesthasstarted,asdesired,to
adapttotheneedtotakeRussia'sinterestsintoaccount.Andthismeansthatafoundation
hasbeenlaidforahealthierandfairerrelationshipinthefuture.
BelatedlyandslowlytheeconomicandpartiallypoliticalturntowardsgrowingAsiahas
started,includingviathedevelopmentofSiberiaandtheFarEast.Arelationshipof
friendshipanddeepstrategicpartnershipwithChinahasbeenestablished.Rivalryin
CentralAsiahasbeensuccessfullyavoidedviaanagreementontheSilkRoadEconomic
Belt(EPShP)andtheYeAES[EurasianEconomicUnion].Greateropportunitieshavebeen
createdforextendingcooperationwiththeASEANcountries,Japan,andSouthKorea.
Asaresult,Russiahasadecentgeopoliticalpositionaheadofthenewroundof
development(ifandwhenitstarts).TheSovietUnionwasopposedbytheWestthroughout
theworldandbyChinaintheEast,andithadtomaintaintheexpensivesocialistcampand
the"socialist-orientedcountries"inthe"thirdworld".Russiaisfacinginevitable,butinthe
longtermlessacute,oppositiononlyintheWest.
IncomparisonwiththelateUSSRandearlyRussia,themoralandpoliticalconditionof
Russiansocietyhasalsochanged.InsteadofunbeliefandthedyingCommunistideology
ofthe1980s,andthesituationofthe1990swhenarevolutionaryminorityproposedtothe
majority"liberal"valuesthat,asitlaterturnedout,werestillunviablehere,patriotismhas
comealong,statenationalism,andmoreorlessnormaltraditionalvalues.Thesame
valuesaresharedbythemajorityofhumanity,andtheyhavepossiblyalsostartedtoreturn
totheWesternworldwhoseelitehastriedtorejectthem.Itisveryimportantthatthe
majorityoftheRussianpopulationandelitefeelthatthenewpoliciesaremorallyright.This
isafundamentalchangeincomparisonwiththeshameandthedesiretopleaseoftheend
ofthe1980sand1990s.Therewerealsoforeignpolicyfailures.Majorunsolvedproblems
remain.
Wedidnotsucceedinconstructingamutuallybeneficialandthusstablerelationshipin
Europe,oraviablesystemofEuropeansecurity.Wedidnotsucceedinpreventingthe
fratricidalconflictinUkraine.Includingbecauseoftheeffectiveabsenceofaserious
strategicpolicytowardsthiscountryforaquarterofacentury.Itwillremainafactor
complicatingaconstructiverelationshipwithEuropeformanyyears,andasourceof"black
swans"-unpredictablechallengesandprovocations.Averyimportantdangeristhe
diversionofpolitical,intellectual,administrativeandeconomicresourcesintoasituation
thatwillbehopelessfortheyearstocome.TherelianceontheRusso-American"reset"
thatwasbasedonanalreadysecondaryproblem-reducingstrategicoffensiveweapons-
wasamistake.Moscowdidnotinsistonresolvingafundamentalissue-haltingthe
expansionofWesternalliances.
TheeconomicandpoliticalturntotheEastisgoingslowly.TheSCOishalfasleep
althoughithasexpanded,noresultsoftheaccordon"linking"theEPShPandtheYeAES
havebeenseenforalmostayearnow.TheveryimportantproblemsofRussianpolitics
includeitsfocusonthepast.Wearestillcorrectingthemistakes.TheRussianelitehas
stillnotdrawnupanationaldevelopmentstrategyfocusingonthefuture,includinga
relevantforeignpolicy.
Themainconclusion:thesuccessesachievedinforeignpolicy,thestrengtheningofthe
country'sstrategicpositionanditssecurity,Russia'sreturntothestatusdesiredbythe
majorityoftheeliteandthepeopleofafirst-classgreatpower,permit,andthenewandold
globalchallengesurgentlydemand,themovingofthevectorofthestate'sandsociety's
attentiontothetasksofinternaleconomicdevelopment,andthepreservationand
developmentofthenation'shumancapital.Itisdishearteningthatthemajorityoftheelite
arenotreadyforsuchalongoverdueturninpolicy.
Foreignpolicyaimedatthefuture
Russianforeignpolicyinthenewworldshouldevidentlyproceedfromthefollowing
principlesandaims(inadditiontoandindevelopmentofthoseofficiallystated):preventing
anewglobalmilitaryconflictall-roundsupportforthecountry'stechnologicaland
economicdevelopment,andthepreservationandaugmentationofhumancapital.
Developmentcannotbeachievedwithoutactiveinvolvementininternationalcooperation.
Weneedtofocusonrestoringandsupportingthesupremacyofinternationallaw,firstand
foremosttheUNCharter.Russianeedstoregainleadership,includingasalegitimate
power.
Thepositionsoughtinthefutureworld:Russiaasabulwarkofinternationalstabilityand
peace,guaranteeingfreedomofdevelopmentforallcountriesandpeoples,andpreventing
theimpositionofalienproceduresandvaluesonthemfromtheoutside,particularlyby
force.
TheidealforeignpolicyandeconomicpositionforRussiainthefuture-agreat,
economicallydeveloping,Atlantic-PacificOceanstate,whichplaysacentralroleinthe
greaterEurasiancommunity,intheeconomic,logisticalandmilitary-politicalintegrationof
AsiaandEurope,aguarantorofinternationalpeace,andanexporterofmilitaryandpolitical
stabilityforEurasia.
Thefollowingtasksareseentobeprioritiesinthespecificpolicy:
-Maintainingthehighlevelofcombatreadinessandflexibilityofthearmedandparticularly
thenuclearforces
-AttachingrealprojectstotheturntotheEast.Themovetowardscreating,togetherwith
China,India,Iran,andprobablytheASEANcountries,SouthKorea,YeAESallies,andother
countries,aGreaterEurasiaCommunityopentotheworldandaimingatcooperationwith
theEUcountries.ThecentralorganisationforthefutureoftheRussianpolitical-economic
orientationisamoreactiveSCO.ThemovetowardscreatingaGreaterEurasian
CommunitywillenabletheincreaseinChina'smighttobeoffsetandtobeplacedwithina
broadframework.ThisisevidentlyalsototheadvantageofChinaitself,anditwillenable
theassociationagainstitofneighboursconcernedaboutitsmighttobeavoided.
Theorientationofforeignpolicyprimarilytowardstheentirepost-Sovietspaceshould
graduallybeleftinthepast.Twenty-fiveyearshavepassedsincethecollapseoftheUSSR.
Itispointlesstocontinuetobenostalgicaboutit.Theworldhaschanged.Newpoliciesare
needed.
AfurthersteppingupofthepolicyofsupportingRussiancultureandtheRussianlanguage
abroadandofestablishinglinkswiththeRussiandiasporasisneeded.Russiancitizens
abroadshouldknowforcertainthattheirmotherlandwillstandupfirmlyintheirdefenceif
necessary.Buttheuseoftheslogan"protectionoftheRussianworld"tojustifythe
expediencyoftheuseofmilitaryforcebeyondtheboundariesofRussiaisunrealisticand
counterproductive.Butthisdoesnotmeancallingfortheabandonmentoftheuseof
militaryforceabroadintheeventofaclearthreattoimportantinterestsofthecountry.
Finally,whileturningtowardsthesoutheast,whichisrisingintheworld,weshould
maintainastrategicfocusonrestoringanddevelopinggood-neighbourlyrelationswiththe
countriesofEurope.RecreatingasystemofEuropeansecurityontheoldfoundationsis
impossible.Weneednowtodevelopthebroadestpossiblepragmatic,cultural,economic,
scientific,educational,andhumancooperation.Consideringthelong-termstateofthe
EuropeanUnion,aYeAES-EUdialogueisunlikelytobeproductive.WithNATO,a
professionaldialoguebetweenthemilitaryisusefulonmattersofmaintainingpeaceand
preventinganescalationofconflicts,buttherestorationstartedinthepastoftheuseless
andpartiallyevenharmfulpoliticaldialogueintheNATO-RussianCouncilisunlikely.
ItisprobablyusefultokeeptheOSCEduringtheperiodofuncertaintyandturbulence,but
theorganisationshouldbere-orientedprimarilytowardsmodernisedandextended"primary
goals"-securityaimedatpreventingandsettlingconflicts,drawingupajointpolicyonthe
fightagainstterrorism,andoncooperationtoensurebordersecurity,regulatingimmigration
fromneighbouringregions,andalsofightingcybercrime.
WeshouldevidentlyproceedinrelationswithEuropeoverthecomingdecadesfromthe
factthatitisnolongeramodel,butalsoevenlessathreat.Asimilarcultureandapartner
ineconomicandhumancooperation.Forthemomentweareinconflict,butanew
rapprochementisdesirableandperhapsalsopossible.
TheUkrainianandsimilarcasesshouldberesolvedinthefutureonthebasisofa
negotiatedconstantneutrality,andanimmersioninnewformatsforcooperationand
security.Inthefirstinstance-Eurasian.
Takingintoaccountthenewrealities-inthefirstinstance,China'smovementtowardsthe
West,weshouldcountonreplacingthefailedunilateralEuropeangeopoliticalorientationof
RussiawithaEurasianone,withamovementawayfromthefailedGreaterEuropetoa
GreaterEurasia,oreveninthelongterm-towardsacommunityofGreaterEurasia,from
SingaporetoLisbon.TheaimofrelationswithAmericaisafirmdeterrencefromdangerous
actions,especiallyduringtheperiodofitsadaptationtothenewrealities,andencouraging
theirabandonmentofrevolutionarydemocraticmessianism.Butthemostimportantthingis
thelongtermpolicyofcooperationtopreventandsettlecrises,theirdevelopmenttoa
globallevel.Themaintoolisanintensive,includingmultilateral,dialoguetopreventthe
underminingofinternationalstrategicstability.
Westress,themaintaskofRussianforeignpolicy,aswellasthetoppriorityofRussia's
entirestrategy,mustbeensuringarapidemergencefromthedevelopmentcrisis,inwhich
thecountryfindsitself,andwhichthreatensitslong-termpositionintheworld,andits
sovereignty.Foreignpolicyshouldhelptomobilisesociety,butnotdistractitfromitsmain
aim-economicandscientificandtechnicalregeneration,helpingtodevelopthecountryin
promisingareas,andthismeansthesouth-eastoverthenextfiveto10years,andnotto
allowittobedistractedbyexpensiveandunpromisingones.
[returntoContents]
#4
www.rt.com
June1,2016
MedvedevcallsformajorefforttoimproveRussians'attitudetowardbusinesspeople
PrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevhassaidthatmembersoftherulingUnitedRussiaparty
shouldtrytochangeordinaryRussians'attitudetoentrepreneursandmakesuccessful
businessmenrolemodelsforthepublic.
"Itisveryimportantforusthatourpeople,commoncitizens,perceiveentrepreneursnotas
ahostileclass,butasanexampletheyshouldfollow,aspeoplewhohavebuiltsuccessful
careersthroughtheirownworkandthroughagreatdealofeffort,"Medvedevsaidata
meetingwithmembersofUnitedRussia'sbusinessplatform,agroupsetupwithinthe
partytopromotetheinterestsofbusinesspeople.
Theprimeministeraddedthatthemostlikelyreasonforthecontinuingnegativeattitude
towardbusinesspeopleinRussiawasthe"complicatedideologicallegacy"oftheSoviet
era.
Medvedevsuggestedthatactivistsshouldusesuccessstoriestopromotionapro-
businessagenda,notingthatsuchmeasurescouldbothimprovetheattitudetoward
entrepreneursinsideRussiaandimprovethecountry'simageinternationally.Ifthis
campaignissuccessful,theprofessionofentrepreneurwouldbecomeoneofthemost
respectedinRussia,hesaid.
UnitedRussia'sBusinessPlatformgroupwascreatedthankstoaproposalbyMedvedevin
February.Thepartyhasthreemoregroupstargetingthemostimportantissues:the
patriotic,liberalandsocialplatforms.InApril,theplatformdetailedsomeproposalsfor
improvingthebusinessclimateinthecountry,includingtheliberalizationoflawstomake
registrationandrunningofcompanieseasier,campaignsthatwouldimprove
entrepreneurs'imagewithchildrenandtheproposaltoawardtopstatedecorationsto
exceptionallysuccessfulbusinesspeople.
AlsoinFebruary,UnitedRussiaheldaconventiondedicatedtoitsstrategyinthe
forthcomingSeptemberparliamentarypolls.Itsmajorprinciplesdemonstratedashiftfrom
social-orientedpoliciessuccessfullyusedbythepartytogainpopularityduringtherecent
economicboomtopro-businessstepsandmeasuresthatwouldhelptomaintainsocial
peaceintimesofeconomiccrisis.Forthis,UnitedRussialaunchedaseparateinitiative
group,orplatform,withinitsranksthatwouldconcentrateonsupporttovarious
entrepreneurialinitiatives.
Atthetime,Medvedev,whoservesasUnitedRussia'schairman,stronglydenouncedany
attemptstocallforchangestopropertyrightsintheelections,sayingthatsuchextreme
ideascouldleadthenationtocatastrophictimessimilartothosethatfollowedthe1917
BolshevikRevolution.
[returntoContents]
#5
US-RussiaBusinessCouncil
May31,2016
Medvedev:EconomicGrowthWillDependOnChangingPerceptionsOfBusiness
PrimeMinisterMedvedevtoldameetingoftheUnitedRussiapartyandbusinessleaders
todaythattheaverageRussianmustchangetheirperceptionofentrepreneursand
businessmeninordertosuccessfullydiversifytheeconomyandcreaterealgrowth.He
saidthatRussiais"adevelopingeconomywithacomplexideologicalheritage"andthat"it
isimportantthatourcitizensperceivetheentrepreneurialclassnotashostile,butasan
exampletofollow,aspeoplewhohaveasuccessfulcareerthroughtheirownhardwork."
Medvedevnotedthatthecurrentsituationintheeconomyis"verydifficult"andstressedto
theUnitedRussiamembersthat"thetaskofthestateistocreatethemostcomfortable
conditionsforbusinesstoworkandtodevelopandtoreducetheabundantadministrative
restrictions."
Atthesametime,Medvedevdecriedtheslowresponseofthestateapparatusinmany
instances,notingthatitsometimestakemonthsorayearforthegovernmentbureaucracy
toimplementpoliciesmeanttosupporttheeconomy.Medvedevpreviouslydiscussedthe
needtochangeperceptionsofentrepreneurshipinhis2009op-ed"RussiaForward!,"
writtenduringhistenureaspresident.AnewVTsIOMlongitudinalsurveyfoundthatattitudes
towardentrepreneursareslowlychanginginsomeways.Thepercentageofrespondents
whosaidtheywouldnotstartabusinessrosefrom49percentin1991to60percentin
2016,butmorethan60percentofyoungpeoplesaidthattheywanttostartabusiness.
However,havingmoneywascitedasthetopprerequisiteforbusinesssuccess(by34
percentofrespondents)ratherthanhardworkandinitiative(27percent).
Sources:GovernmentoftheRussianFederation,May31,2016VTsIOM,May30,2016.
[returntoContents]
#6
UPI.com
June1,2016
Russiaexpectseconomicgrowthinayear
Ministerswarnedearlythisyearareturnto$50perbarreloilcouldcreateheadwinds.
ByDanielJ.Graeber
STUTTGART,Germany,June1(UPI)--ItmaybeanotheryearbeforetheRussian
economyrecoversfromdeeprecessionandreturnstogrowth,thecountry'seconomic
developmentministersaid.
Witha3.7percentdeclineingrossdomesticproductlastyear,RussianEconomic
DevelopmentMinisterAlexeiUlyukayevsaidthecountrywasinadeeprecession.The
RussianCentralBank,however,saidearlierthisweekthatinflationwasstabilizingandthe
economywasmovingtothestartingpointofrecovery.
UlyukayevsaidfirstquarterGDPshrankby1.2percent,butrecoveredtoaboutnegative0.7
percentbyApril.
"Weexpectthatsomewhereinthemiddleoftheyearwewillreachzeroandafterthatwe
willgraduallyrestorepositiveeconomicgrowth,"hesaidfromGermany.
TheCentralBanksaidthat,unlessthereareexternalshocksbeyonditscontrol,the
Russianeconomyisonpaceforslowgrowth.Therecoveryincrudeoilprices,coupled
withamorestablecurrency,iscreatingfavorableconditionsintheRussianeconomy.
"Consumerinflationisgraduallysettlingdownonthepathtowardstheannuallevelof6.5
percentand4percentfor2017,"thebankreportedthisweek.
ADecemberreviewfromtheCentralBankofRussiasaidoilpricesshouldreturnto$50per
barrelbythefirsthalfof2016,butstaythereuntilatleastlate2018.Loweroilpricesare
expectedtolimitRussia'seconomicrecovery,buttheeconomymaybecomelessexposed
tocommoditypricesasitshiftstomoreproductiveindustries.
RussianenergyofficialswarnedinMarchthatapriceabove$50perbarrelofoilmight
skewmarketsheavilytowardthesupplysideasenergyinvestorslooktocapitalizeonthe
forwardmomentum.
Crudeoilpricesaretestingthe$50mark,upfromlowsbelow$30perbarrelearlythisyear.
[returntoContents]
#7
RussiaDirect
www.russia-direct.org
May31,2016
WhenwilltheRussianeconomyfinallyemergefromrecession?
DespitesomepositiveindicatorsintheRussianeconomy,itbadlyneedsstructuralreforms
toresumestableeconomicgrowth.
ByDmitryDokuchaev
DmitryDokuchaevisaRussianjournalistandcolumnist,whodealswitheconomicissues.
HehasextensiveexperienceindifferentRussianmedia,includingIzvestia,MoscowNews,
TheNewTimes,TheEchoofPlanet.
Fornearlytwoyears,theRussianeconomyhasbeeninrecession.Duringthistime,
domesticandforeignthinktankshavecompetedwitheachothertoseewhocouldpredict
themostdramaticdeclineoftheRussianeconomyagainstthebackdropoffallingoilprices
andinternationalsanctions.
However,bytheendofspring2016,thesituationhaschanged.Manyfiguresthatmeasure
economicperformanceofthecountryhavechangedfromnegativetopositive.That,inturn,
hasalsochangedthenatureoftheforecasts,whichnolongersoundsoapocalyptic.
Onthecontrary,manyexpertsquiteconfidentlyseetheproverbiallightattheendofthe
tunnel,andpredictthattheRussianeconomywillresumeitsgrowth.
SignsofhopeforRussianeconomicgrowth
EconomicofficialswithinthegovernmentinsistthatthedownturnintheRussianeconomy
hasbeenstopped.InthesecondhalfofMay,theMinisterofEconomicDevelopmentAlexey
UlyukayevannouncedthattheRussianeconomyhademergedfromrecessioninthethird
quarterof2015,andthereisnoreasontobelievethatitwillre-enterit.
Earlier,theMinistryofEconomicDevelopmentreportedthat,accordingtopreliminary
estimates,Russia'sgrossdomesticproduct(GDP)inthefirstquarterof2016decreased
by0.2percent(excludingseasonalfactors),comparedtothefourthquarterof2015.
AccordingtoRosstat(Russia'sstatestatisticsagency),Russia'sGDPfellby1.2percentin
thefirstquarterof2016onayear-over-yearbasis.
Ofparticularsignificanceisthattheseindicatorsaresignificantlybetterthananalysts
expected,andevenbetterthanthegovernmentofficialspredicted.InitiallytheMinistryof
EconomicDevelopmentpredictedthatRussia'sGDPwouldcontractby1.4percentinthe
firstquarterof2016.Similarly,theconsensusforecastproducedbyBloombergpredicteda
negativeGDPgrowthrateof2percentforthesameperiod.
Giventhat,itcanbearguedtodaythatifsuchatrendcontinuesduring2016,GDPgrowth
ratecouldbezero,orevenitcanseeaslightincreasebytheendoftheyear.Afterthe
Russianeconomycontractedby3.7percentin2015,thiswouldbeabigstepforward.
ManyindependentexpertshavealsostartedtogivepositiveforecastsfortheRussian
economy.Forexample,analystsatCapitalEconomicsaresayingthattheRussian
economyhasalreadypassedthroughthehardestperiod,basedontheirevaluationsofthe
firstquarterof2016.
Whattoexpectfortherestof2016?
ThecurrentdynamicofRussia'smacroeconomicindicatorsallowsmakingveryoptimistic
forecastsgiventhetrendofthelasttwoyears.EconomistsatSberbankCIBYevgeny
Gavrilenkov,AntonStruchenevsky,andSergeyKonyginhavenotedthat,"Thelocal
economyhasreacheditsbottom."EvenifGDPremainsatthecurrentlevel,itsannual
dynamicsintheperiodfromApriltoDecember2016willfluctuatearoundthezeromark,
theysaid.ItisverylikelythatGDPin2016willnotbenegative.
Moreover,someanalystsareexpectingthat"theactualresultswillbeevenbetter."There
areseveralreasonsforthat.AmongthemajorsectorsoftheRussianeconomy,onlythe
retailsegmentcontractedinthefirstquarterofthecurrentyear(comparedtotheyear-
earlierperiod).Constructionandtransportsectorsremainunchanged,whilemanufacturing
andagriculturegrowthratesincreased,comparedwiththepreviousquarter.
So,ifthedeclineinretailtradewillstopandthecurrentdynamicinothersectorsofthe
economyremainsthesame,quarterlyGDPmightstartgrowing.
Foritspart,Russia'sMinistryofEconomicDevelopmentbelievesthatindustrialproduction
fortheyearwilldeliverpositiveresults.Rosstatdataforthefirstmonthsoftheyearshows
thatanumberofindustriesintherealsectoroftheeconomyarealreadyshowingpositive
results,suchasfoodprocessing,chemicals,gasandpetrochemicalindustry,productionof
fertilizers,andcertaintypesofequipment.
Ingeneral,industrialproductionroseby0.5percentinAprilof2016,comparedtothesame
monthin2015,accordingtoRosstat.However,thisisnotyetgrowth,butalreadynota
decline.
IMFandEBRDforecastsfortheRussianeconomy
AccordingtotherecentassessmentmadebytheInternationalMonetaryFund(IMF)
missioninRussia,thecountry'sGDPshouldgrowby1percentnextyear.TheIMFexpects
stabilizationofoilpricesandimprovementinthecountry'sfinancialsituation,whichwillhelp
toresumeeconomicgrowth.
Accordingtothereport,theeconomiccontractionwassmallerthaninthepreviousperiods,
duetothepackageofmeasuresimplementedbythegovernment-includingthetransition
toaflexibleforeigncurrencyexchangerate,increasingliquidityinthebankingsector,limited
fiscalstimulus,andtheabandonmentofstrictregulation.TheIMFmissionnoteda
significantslowdownininflation,duetotheweakeningofeconomicactivity,andtight
monetarypolicydesignedtolimitthegrowthofincomes.
TheEuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopment(EBRD)isalsolookingwith
optimismattheRussianeconomy.TheheadoftheEBRDSumaChakrabartirecently
notedthatthedeclineintheRussianeconomymightwellbereplacedbygrowthinthenext
eighteenmonths.
FourpercentGDPgrowthby2020?
Meanwhile,theMinistryofEconomicDevelopmenthasfinalizedthedraftofits
macroeconomicforecastfor2016-2020.Accordingtotheministry'sestimates,GDPis
expectedtogrowby4to4.5percentannuallyby2019.Thegovernmentversionofthe
forecastwaspresentedbytheChairmanoftheCounciloftheCenterforStrategic
Research,ex-FinanceMinisterAlexeyKudrinandMinisterofEconomicDevelopment
AlexeyUlyukaev.
Botheconomistsbelievethat,giventheloweroilandgasrevenues,thegovernment
expensesshouldbecut.Thegoalistoachieveanannualreductionoffederalspendingby
aminimum5percentinrealtermsthrough2019.Simultaneously,wageswillriseat50
percentoftheinflationlevel.
Additionally,themobilizationofallpossibleadditionalresourcesmustbeaccomplished,
suchasattractingdomesticandforeigncreditfinancing,andprivatizationofstateproperty.
Asalways,implementationofallthosestepsisquitechallenging.
Wheretogetmoneyforinvestment?
Thekeyquestionremains:WherewillinvestmentsintotheRussianeconomycomefrom,
giventhatthegovernmentisrunningoutofbudgetaryfundswhileinternationalsanctions
arerestrictingfinancialactivitiesofdomesticcompaniesandbanksintheglobalmarkets.
AlexeyKudrinconfidentlysuggestsusingtheinternalresourcesofthecompanies.
Accordingtohim,Russiancompanieshaveaccumulatedfreecapitalintheirbank
accountscomparablewiththeirannualinvestmentneeds."Thatmoneyisevencheaper
thanbankloans,becausetheybelongtothecompanies,buttheyarenotinvested,"he
says.
Kudrin'sopinionissharedbypresidentialaideAndreyBelousov,thewell-knowneconomist
AbelAganbegyan,andmanyothereconomists,whoallagreethatcompanieshaveenough
fundstoallocateforneededinvestments.
In2015,thenetfinancialresult(profitsminuslosses)ofRussiandomesticenterprises
(excludingsmallbusinesses,banks,insurancecompaniesandstatebudgetinstitutions)
increasedby53.1percent,climbingto8.4trillionrubles(about$127.3billionattoday's
exchangerate).Thus,infact,areserveofseveraltrillionrubleshasbeencreatedinthe
Russianeconomy.Thisyearthetrendcontinues.
Butwillthismoneybedirectedtobusinessdevelopment,orremaininbankaccounts
earninginterest?Theanswerdependsonhowbusinessleaderswillevaluatethenear
future.Today,judgingbyexpertcommentsandthestateofmindofbusinessmen,bankers
andinvestors,theirexpectationsarebecomingmorepositive.
Structuralreformsarebadlyneeded
FortheRussianeconomytomovetosustainablegrowth,theIMFrecommendscarrying
outstructuralreforms,inordertoensurethenecessaryinflowofinvestment.
AccordingtoIMFexperts,thenecessaryinstitutionalimprovementsshouldbemade,
aimingatreducingtheadministrativeburdenonbusinessandtheprotectionofproperty
rights.
TheIMFalsoconsidersitwouldbebeneficialforRussiatoimprovethestructureofthe
domesticlabormarket,byincreasingthemobilityofthepopulationandachievingabalance
betweensupplyanddemand,aswellasraisingtheretirementage.Besides,theIMF
recommendscontinuinginvestingintotheinnovativesectorsoftheeconomy,intoenergy
systemsandthetransportinfrastructure.
TalkingtoRussiaDirect,NikitaMaslennikov,advisertotheInstituteofContemporary
Development,alsomentionedtheneedtocarryoutstructuralreforms."Qualitynotquantity
ofthegrowthisimportantforeconomy.Ifwedonotimplementstructuralreformswewillbe
lockedinthe1.5-2percentGDPgrowthrateformanyyears,"heargues.
"Shouldoilpricesremainat$45-50perbarrel,whilethecountrylaunchesstructural
reformstoimproveinvestmentclimateandstimulateinvestmentgrowth,theRussian
economycouldshowpositivegrowtheventhisyear,"suggestsYaroslavLissovolik,chief
economistoftheEurasianDevelopmentBank.
Accordingtohim,theimprovedexpectationshavebecomepossiblenotonlyduetoarisein
oilpriceto$50perbarrel,butalsothankstocertainsuccessachievedinthegovernment's
declaredpolicyofimportsubstitution,especiallyinagricultureandfoodproduction.
[returntoContents]
#8
www.rt.com
June1,2016
RussiagivesawayfirstfreelandinFarEast
ThefirstthreefamiliesinRussia'sAmurregionhavereceivedtheirfreehectaresofland
undertheprogramaimingtodevelopthecountry'sFarEast.Theregion'sArkharinsky
district,whichbordersChina,waschosenasthepilotareafortheinitiative.
"Thefirstthreeapplicationswerereceivedfromresidentsinthearea,whichformanyyears
engagedinbeekeeping.Districtauthoritieshavealreadyapprovedthelayoutoftheland,
andpropertyboundarieshavebeenregistered,"aspokespersonforthelocalproperty
authoritiestoldInterfax.
Anothertwoapplicationsarebeingprocessedoneofthemisacollectiveapplicationfrom
threefamiliesalsoinvolvedinbeekeeping.
TheArkharinskydistrictislocatedatthejunctionoftheborderwithChinaandwithRussia's
JewishAutonomousRegion.ThedistrictiscrossedbytheTrans-Siberianrailroadandthe
Chita-Khabarovskfederalhighway.
Theareahas50,000hectaresofagriculturallandand500,000hectaresofforest.
ThegovernorofYakutia,anotherregionincludedintheprogram,announcedthatinaddition
tothehectareoflandofferedbythestate,hisregionwillprovideanother2.5hectaresto
anyoneinterested.Yakutiaisknownforitssevereclimateandthecoldesttemperatures
recordedintheNorthernHemisphereat71.2C(96.2F)in1926.
InApril,theRussianStateDumaadoptedalawallowingRussianstherighttoclaimafree
hectare(10,000squaremeters)oflandintheFarEast.TheareasincludeYakutia,
Kamchatka,Chukotka,Primorye,Khabarovsk,Amur,Magadan,SakhalinandtheJewish
AutonomousRegions.Thelandcanbeusedforanylawfulpurposeandthenewowners
cannotrent,sell,orgiveawaythelandforfiveyears.
[returntoContents]
#9
Izvestia
May23,2016
PublicChambermemberSergeiMarkov,directorofthePoliticalResearchInstitute,
PrimariesinRussia:Adifficultdevelopmentalstage.Ontheneedtoreducethegap
betweendeputiesandvoters
TheleadershipoftheUnitedRussiapartyprobablyharbouredgreatdoubtsastowhetherit
wasactuallyworthwhiletoentertheragingwatersoftheprimaries,beingperfectlyawareof
howmanyproblemsanddifficultiesthisdecisionwouldentail.Nevertheless,itwasnot
afraidtoassumethisresponsibility.
PrimariesarepartofthesystemicevolutionofRussianpoliticallife,theimpetustowhich
wasgivenbythepoliticalturbulenceof2011-2.Thegenerallogicofthisevolutionisto
increasecitizens'trustinthepoliticalsystemasawholeandinelectionsinparticular.The
objectiveinthisistobringcandidatesclosertothevoters,aprocessthatoccursasa
resultofthedivisionoftheDumaelectionsintoproportionalandfirst-past-the-postballots,
throughincreasingcompetitionbetweentheestablishmentparties,andviathereductionof
theuseoftheadministrativeresource.
TheprimariesbeingheldbyUnitedRussiaareoneofthewaysofbringingcandidates,and
thendeputies,closertothevoters.Thelogicissimple:ThecandidatefromUnitedRussia,
naturally,hasacertainadvantageoverothercandidates,becausethepartyissupportedby
thecountry'smostpopularpolitician-PresidentVladimirPutin.Thusacandidatefrom
UnitedRussiahasprettygoodchancesofbeingelected,hypotheticallyspeaking,onthe
strengthofthepopularityofVladimirPutin.
Inordernotto"ride"intotheDumaonVladimirPutin'spopularity,candidatesmustwinthe
righttorunforelectiononbehalfofUnitedRussiainabattlewithoneanother.Moreover,
thisbattleshouldnotbeinaclosedroomwheredecisionsaremadebytheparty
apparatus,butinopenauditoriumswherevoterscanexpresstheirownopinion.
Itisassumedthattheframeworkoftheprimarieswillthrowupnewfaces,thedemandfor
whichtodayisextremelyclearlyexpressedinRussiansociety.Inaddition,certain"old"
facesmayleave.Theywillgoeitherbecausetheyhaveoptednottoconductanintensive
dialoguewiththevoters,beingunabletofindtherightwordsortherightapproachor
becausevotershaverejectedthemonthebasisoftheresultsoftheiractivity,observing
contradictionsbetweenactionscarriedoutandnewpromises.
Itiswellknownthatmanycountriesoftheworldinwhichverystrongdominantpartiesor
broadcoalitionsexisttaketheprimariespath.UnitedRussiaispreciselysuchadominant
party.
Votersreacthighlypositivelytotheseelections,rightlyseeinginthemmoreopportunitiesto
influencetheadoptionofpoliticaldecisionsandwhoendsupintheStateDuma.Actual
voterturnout,however,isinfactoneoftheproblems.
Afterall,theprimariesareastrawpollandanunusualelementforRussia.Overthecourse
ofdecades,everyonehasbecomeaccustomedtogoingtothepolls-toparliamentary,
presidential,localelectionsbutsofarthereisnohabitofparticipatinginpartyelections.
Moreover,peoplearepoorlyinformedaboutthem.Thisiswhyitwasverydifficulttoattain
eventhelevelindicatedbyVTsIOM[All-RussiaCentrefortheStudyofPublicOpinionon
SocialandEconomicQuestions]-32percentexpressingthedesiretotakepartinthe
primaries.Buttherealproportionofpeoplewhovotewillmostlikelybemanytimeslower.
Thesmallnumberofthoseparticipatingintheprimariescreatesanotherproblem-possible
manipulations.Afterall,thefewerpeoplewhoparticipateinthevotingprocess,theeasierit
istoinfluenceitsoutcomewiththeaidofasmall,close-knitgroupofpeople.Wherethere
are100,000peoplecastingavote,1,000peopledonothaveagreatinfluencebutwhere
thereare10,000voting,anextra1,000peopleaffordsalreadyahighprobabilityofvictory.
Hencethedistortionoftheresultsofelectionsbyorganisedclose-knitgroupsisanobvious
problem.
Whethertheaimofbringingpartycandidatesclosertothevotersthoughtheprimarieswill
orwillnotsucceedisabigquestion.
Variousattemptsatfalsificationandtoexertadministrativepressureatlocallevelcouldbe
aseriousdangeronthispath.Itispossiblethatinsomeregionstheresultsofprimarieswill
beannulled.Moreover,theydefinitelyshouldbeannulledifsignificantviolationsare
discovered.Whereafairbattlehasnottakenplace,thereshouldbenopretencethat
everythingisokay.
Thesupportofthevotersisfarmoreimportantthanattemptsnottowashdirtylinenin
public,andtohidethisdirtylinenisimpossibleinthehyper-informationsocietyanyway.The
cancellationofprimariesevenin10percentofregionswouldnotmeanthefailureofthe
ideaofpreliminaryelectionsitself,butthattheyweregoingthroughadifficultprocessof
developmentinRussia.
Problemsandscandalsduringtheprimariesareanormalandwidespreadthinginall
countriesinwhichtheyareheld.TheclassicexampleistheUnitedStates.Andweshould
bepreparedforthis.Nowhere,however,donumerousscandalscallintoquestionthe
principleandneedforpreliminaryelectionsitself.
Thepartyleadershipwellunderstandsthesepotentialdifficulties,however,andthisis
evidentlywhyithasdecidednottoannouncetheresultsoftheprimariesrightaway,butto
allowsufficienttimefortheexaminationoftheappealsoflosingcandidates.Itisvery
importantforthepartythatthepartyelectionsdonotleadtothesplittingawayofaggrieved
losingparticipantsandforUnitedRussiatoemergefromthemconsolidated.
Thisproblem,however,istypicalforallpartiesoftheworldthatholdprimaries.Wecansee
whatabitterstruggleisgoingonintheUnitedStates,forexample.Butstrictpartydiscipline
makesallthecandidatesmakepeaceandconsolidateagainafterward.Butonthewhole,
thepresenceofconflictsofthiskindisnotaweaknessoftheparty.Itisactuallythe
manifestationofthevitalforcesexistinginsidetheparty.Ifaggrievedcandidateslodgean
appeal,thismeansthattheyfeelthemselvestobenotpuppetsofthepartyapparatus,but
independentpublicfigureswhoarefightingfortheinterestsoftheseorthosesocialgroups.
Intheframeworkoftheseprimaries,participantspassthroughtheordealoffiercedebates
ontheentirespectrumofproblemsofconcerntovoters.Thiswillmakethecandidates
fromUnitedRussiabetterpreparedforthebattleagainstrepresentativesofotherpartiesin
theframeworkoftheactualparliamentaryelectioncampaign.
Onthewhole,theappearanceofprimariescanonlybewelcomed,because,intheeventof
competentimplementation,preliminaryelectionswillhelptostrengthenpoliticalpartiesand
theirlinkstothevotersandtoextendthepublicdialoguethatissonecessaryforanystate
inordertoreconcilesocialconflictsandtoadoptdecisionsintheinterestsofthemajorityof
citizens.
[returntoContents]
#10
Politkom.ru
May25,2016
InterviewwithpoliticalanalystKonstantinKalachev,byAleksandrIvakhnik:Konstantin
Kalachev:'ObjectivesofPrimariesHaveGenerallyBeenAchieved.Meanwhile,Problemsin
IndividualRegionsAllowPartyToPinCertainAlarmLightsonMapofRussia'
ApopularvotetoselectUnitedRussiacandidatesfortheStateDumaelectionstookplace
acrossthecountryon22May.This[primaries]procedure,whichthepartyhasbeenusing
forthepastfewyears,hasforthefirsttimebecomenationwideandopen.Politkom.ruhas
talkedwithKonstantinKalachev,awell-knownpoliticalanalystandheadofthePolitical
ExpertGroup,aboutwhatworkedwellandwhatdidnot,andaboutwinnersandlosers.
[Ivakhnik]What,inyouview,wasbehindUnitedRussia'sdecisiontoholdsuchlarge-scale
primariesthatwereopentoeveryone,andwhatweretheaims?
[Kalachev]IthinkthisisaconsequenceofthenaturalevolutionofUnitedRussia,which
usedtheprimariesprocedureforthefirsttimein2007,duringlocalandregionalelections.
Then,theprimarieswereopenonlytopartymembers.Thenextstepwastoswitchtoan
openmodel--thatistoallowcandidateswhoarenotpartymemberstorunaswellandto
holdapopularvote.Inthenineyearssince2007,thepartyleadershiphasrealizedthatthe
primariesdowork,soIunderstandthedesireofUnitedRussia,inasituationwhereits
approvalratingsarenotincreasing,totrytoturnthissituationroundaheadoftheelections
throughapreliminarypopularvoteprocedure.ItenablesUnitedRussia,first,togetahead
startonotherparties,second,tokeepcandidatesingoodformandrenewitslistof
candidateswiththosewhoarehighlyelectable,and,third,toexposeinternalconflictseven
beforetheyhavestarted.Conflictsstemmingfromaclashofambitions,conflictsbetween
influencegroups,anddisagreementswithintheelitethatcouldaffecttheSeptember
electionsarebeingexposedasearlyasMay,thusmakingitpossibletoconductsome
preventionwork.
Thereisanotherimportantpoint:Asustainedmediastoryisbeingcreated,withcandidates
acquiringthecharacteristicsofpeople'scandidates.Asforwhythishappenednow,Ithinkit
isquiteclear.The2011electionsinvolved[party]listsalone,butnowthereisamixed
system.Moreover,thoseelectionsendedinanembarrassmentintheformofBolotnaya
[referencetoclashesbetweenpoliceandprotestersinandaroundMoscow'sBolotnaya
Squareon6May2012,ontheeveofPresidentVladimirPutinbeingsworninforhisthird
presidentialterm].Theprimariesarearesponsetoallchallengesandthreatsconnected
withthemovetoamixedsystemofvotingandthepossibilityoftheSeptemberresultbeing
delegitimized.Inreality,thisispreciselytherealizationofacourseforcompetitiveness,
openness,andlegitimacy,abetterqualityofthelistofcandidates,ahigher[media]
quotationindexfortheparty,theexposureandresolutionofconflicts,keepingtheentire
partyorganizationingoodform,andenablingthecampaigntogetofftoastrongstart.
[Ivakhnik]Asfarastheattainmentoftheobjectivesyouhavementionedisconcerned,how
wouldyouassesstheactualresultsoftheprimariesprocessandthevotethatwasheldon
Sunday[22May]?Havetheexpectationsofthepartyleadershipbeenmet,andwhathave
theprimariesgiventherulingpartyinpractice?
[Kalachev]Russiaisabigcountry,whichiswhythesituationshouldbeviewednotjustas
awhole,butalsoinindividualregions.Ithinkthattheprimarieshavegenerallylivedupto
expectations,thepartyleadershipshouldbepleased,andtheobjectiveshavebeen
achieved.Meanwhile,thedifficultiesandproblemsthepartyencounteredinindividual
regionsallowittopincertainalarmlightsonthemapofRussia,sothatthepartyandits
supervisorsarenowawarewhichregionsrequirespecialattention.Infact,ifallthethings
thathappenedareviewedfromthestandpointofenhancingtheparty'smobilization
readiness,thenithascertainlyincreasedandeverythingwasorganizedquitewell.And,by
theway,this,atthesametime,wasareviewofthecapabilitiesofeachregionalparty
branch,sothatcertainconclusionscannowbedrawn.Ialsothinkthatstereotypesand
clichesaresometimesbrokenhere.Forexample,inmyview,absolutelymodelprimaries
tookplaceinYaroslavskayaOblast.UnitedRussia'spositiontherewasalwaysconsidered
tobeweak.
[Ivakhnik]Yousaidthatsomeproblemregionsorproblempartsofregionshavebeen
identified.Canyouelaborateonthispoint?
[Kalachev]Theseareterritorieswithextremelylowturnouts.Ontheotherhand,itisof
coursegoodthattheydidnotherdpoorpublicsectorworkersintopollingplacesanddidnot
artificiallyincreasetheturnout.Forexample,theturnoutwasverylowinSaintPetersburg
andArkhangel'skayaOblast.Itisclearthatintheseregionseitherthecandidatesdidnot
stirupmuchpublicinterest,ortheparty'sratingsarenothighenough,ororganizational
capacityisbelowpar.Itseemstomethatregionswiththehighestturnoutsshouldalsobe
viewedasproblemones.BecauseitisclearthatthehighturnoutsinDagestanand
Mordoviyawereartificiallyinflated.Itisregionswithaverageresultsthatyoushould
probablynotworryabouttoomuch,especiallyifduringtheprimariestherewereno
situationsinvolvingscandals,bribery,votersbeingbussedintopollingplaces,multiple
voting,andsoon.Insomeplaces,therewereindeedscandals.Itisclearthat,forexample,
therewillbealotofattentiononMoskovskayaOblastintheSeptemberelections.Thistime
round,therewereallegationsofbriberyandmultiplevotinginvolvingspeciallytrainedvoters.
[Ivakhnik]NotjustMoskovskayaOblast,butalsoPrimorskiyKray,SaintPetersburg,
KhabarovskiyKray,Bashkortostan,andVolgogradskayaOblasthavebeenmentionedin
connectionwithscandals.SergeyNeverov[secretaryoftheUnitedRussiaGeneral
Council]hassaidthattherewereatotalof426complaints,whichisafairlylargefigure.
What,inyouropinion,isbehindthesescandals?
[Kalachev]Ithinkthatbehindthemarethepeculiaritiesofourmasspsychology.Your
primariesareasgoodasyourelectionswhileyourelectionsareasgoodasyourvoters.In
otherwords,iftherearepeoplereadytovote[inacertainway]for10roubles,itmeansthat
someonewilltakeadvantageofthat.Iftherearepeoplewhocanimmediatelybebussed
intoapollingplace,itmeansthatsomeonewilltakeadvantageofthat.Ingeneral,any
electionsandanyprimariesareaccompaniedbyconflictandscandal,whichisnobigdeal.
Internationalexperienceshowsthatprimariesneverpassoffwithoutscandalbecause
scandalispartandparcelofthis"show."
Thenatureofscandalsisadifferentmatter.Itisonethingwhencandidatescomplainabout
eachother,whichispartofcompetition.Butitisadifferentthingwhenvotersstart
complainingaboutpressurebeingexertedonthem,bribesbeingpaidtothem,andsoon.
So,complaintsfromcandidatesareinevitablebecausethelosingcandidatewillalways
complain.Itiscomplaintsfromvotersthatgivefoodforthought.Thatiswhycasesof
administrativepressurebeingappliedinordertoforcevoterstotakepartintheprimaries
maybackfireinSeptember.Or,forexample,voterbriberybysomecandidatesmayalso
backfireontheparty,andnotformoralorethnicreasons,butbecausevoterswhotook
moneytotakepartintheprimarieswillnolongervoteforfreeintheelections.
Thatiswhyscandalsinvolvingbriberyoradministrativepressurebeingexertedonvoters
requirecloseattention.Forexample,inVolgogradskayaOblast,thedirectorofayouth
centrewhorefusedtobeinvolvedinsomefraudconnectedwiththevotehasbeen
dismissed.Thisisoutrageous,andsuchthingsdiscredittheprocedure.However,for
candidates,itisnormaltocomplain.
[Ivakhnik]Speakingoftheturnout,yousaidthattherewereabnormallylowandhigh
turnouts,buttheturnoutinthecountryasawholewas9percent.DoyouthinkUnited
Russiawashopingforahigherturnoutoristhatanormalfigure?
[Kalachev]Ithinkthattheydreamedof10percent.IhavejustarrivedbackfromYaroslavl'.
Everythingwasfair,clean,andbeautifulthere,withaturnoutofaround7percent.Infact,7-
8percentisnormal.Ithinkthat10percentisalsoquitepossible,providingprimariesare
competitive.Whenwehaveacompetitivescenario,thenthereisaclearreasonforahigh
turnout.Idonotquiteunderstandhighturnoutsinreferendum-likescenarioswherea
candidatehasnoopponentsand,moreover,isnotsufficientlywellknownandpopular.
[Ivakhnik]JudgingbyyourYaroslavl'impressions,whoturnedouttovoteintheprimaries
there?
[Kalachev]Allkindsofpeople.Inthemorning,therewerepensioners,andthenmiddle-aged
peopleandevenyoungpeople.Infact,everythingdependsonthesupportbaseofa
particularcandidate.Forexample,thewinnerinoneoftheprecincts,AleksandrGribov,
chairmanoftheoblastPublicChamber(hehasjustturned30),hasaverydiversesupport
base.ThelocalPublicChamberisveryactive,perhapsthemostactiveinthecountry.
Therefore,hissupportbaseincludesbothpensionersandyoungpeople.Butingeneral,I
think,itisolderpeopleandperhapswomen,ratherthanmen,thataremorelikelytovote.
[Ivakhnik]Andhowdidvoterslearnabouttheprimaries?Didanyonespeciallyinvitethem?
[Kalachev]Thatisagoodquestion.Earlier,IvisitedIrkutskayaOblast,wheretheturnout
waslow--5percent.Manypeopletherecomplainedthatitwasimpossibletofindpolling
places.Indeed,nospecialworkwascarriedouttomaketheaddressesofpollingplaces
widelyavailable,whichaffectedtheturnout.MeanwhileinYaroslavl',ontheUnitedRussia
websiteandoncandidates'pagesonsocialnetworks,itwaspossibletoobtaininformation
ontheaddressesofpollingplaces.InMoscow,thedetailsofpollingplacelocationswere
postedinapartmentblockhallways.Thismaynotbetheeasiestmethodofnotification,but
itisthemostsensibleone.
[Ivakhnik]Letusgobackalittle.Judgingbyyourimpressions,whatwastheimportanceof
theprocessofpublicdebatesbetweencandidatesthatprecededtheprimaries?Didithelp
revealnewoutstandingpublicfigures?
[Kalachev]Thedebateformatitselfdoesnotallowanythingtoberevealed.Athemeisset,
butthereisnodiscussionassuch.Thisismorelikespeechesandquestion-and-answer
sessions.Suchaformatfordebatesdoesnotallowcandidatestorevealtheircompetitive
advantage.However,itdoesbecomeclearwhoistongue-tiedandwhoisnot.Bytheway,
thedebates,aswellastheprimaries,wereheldindifferentways--insomeplacesformally
andinothersinformally.Insomecasestheyattractedmanypeople.Forexample,in
Yaroslavl',therewerehighattendances.Inotherplaces,veryfewpeoplewouldbepresent.
Insomeplaces,participantswouldtalkrubbish.But,inanycase,theirstupiditywas
apparent.Allinall,peoplehaveatleaststartedtoappreciateproblemsassociatedwith
publicspeaking.Theyhavestartedgettingpreparedandworkingtoimprovetheiroratory
skills.
[Ivakhnik]Andhowactively,inyourview,werecandidatescampaigningintheprimaries?Do
younotthinkthatgenerallytheywerenotveryactive?
[Kalachev]Thisdifferedfromcandidatetocandidate.Someofthemwereveryactiveand
publishedmanythousandsofcopiesofelectionliterature.Theproblemisthattherewere
fewwhoconductedacomprehensivecampaign.Thereisacrisisinthecountry.Thereis
lessmoneyavailable,andyoualsoneedtokeepsomethingfortheSeptemberelections.
Forexample,inPermskiyKray,LegislativeAssemblymemberDmitriySkrivanovconducted
acomprehensivecampaignandcamefirst.Ingeneral,thepictureacrossthecountrywas
highlyvaried.
[Ivakhnik]Howwouldyouassessthelevelofcompetitionintheprimaries?
[Kalachev]Therewascompetitionat40percentofsingle-seatdistricts.However,thereis
competitionandthereiscompetition,Iwouldsay.Therewascompetition,butinthe
majorityofcases,therewaspredictability.Althoughtherewereunpredictablescenariosas
well,insuchcasesadministrativepressureprevailed.Letustake,forexample,the
KrasnoarmeyskiydistrictinVolgograd,whereStateDumamemberOlegSavchenkoran
againstoblastDumamemberTatyanaTsybizova.Savchenkoeventuallylostand
bombardedeveryonewithcomplaints.Inreality,terriblethingshappened.Thefullmightof
theadministrativemachinewasusedagainstSavchenko,andthesituationcouldnotbe
reversed.Buttheremaywellbeoppositeexamplessomewhereelse.
[Ivakhnik]Towhatextent,inyouropinion,havetheprimariesrevealeddisagreements
betweenUnitedRussia'sfederalleadershipandtheinterestsofgovernorsandinfluential
groupsintheregionalelites?
[Kalachev]Ofcourse,therehavebeensuchcases,especiallyinplacescontestedbyONF
[All-RussiaPeople'sFront]candidates.AclearexampleisIrkutskayaOblast,which
featuredMuscoviteNikolayNikolayev,headoftheONFPeople'sTestcentreforthe
independentmonitoringofimplementationofthepresident'sedicts,andapersonfrom
Irkutsk,SergeyBrilka,speakeroftheoblastLegislativeAssemblyandsecretaryofthe
regionalbranchofUnitedRussia.Intheend,Nikolayevcamesecondontheregionallist
whileBrilkawasfirst.ButIthinkthatMoscowwantedadifferentoutcome--forthesimple
reasonthattheheadoftheregionalbranchisaccountablefortheparty'sdefeatsin
IrkutskayaOblastatmayoralandgubernatorialelections.Itisclearthatthereneedstobe
somebreathoffreshair,whichiswhytheyallowedanONFcandidatethere.Hedidwellby
comingsecond,butfellshortofwinningbecausethepoliticalcounciloftheregionalbranch
putupacertainresistance.
TheIrkutskstoryisnottheonlyoneofitskind.However,inthemajorityofcases,ONF
candidateswoninlargecities,andthiswasthetriumphofthefederalcentrebecauseitis
clearwhoisbehindthesepeopleandwhattheirpurposeis.Therewereofcoursecases
wheregovernorsorlocalinfluencegroupstriedtopushthroughtheirownpeopleandwhere
runningagainstthemwerepeoplewho,owingtotheirservicesandlinks,weretreatedas
thepowersthatbe.Inprinciple,thisisanormalprocess.Thatishowitshouldbe.
[returntoContents]
#11
Meduza
http://meduza.io
May31,2016
ThestrangedeathofRussia's'DemocraticCoalition'
The"PartyofPeople'sFreedom,"betterknowas"Parnas,"isoneofthefewpoliticalparties
inRussiathatrepresentswhatiscalledthe"nonsystemicopposition"-Russia'sgenerally
anti-Kremlin,typicallyWestern-leaningactivistsanddisaffectedformergovernment
officials.Earlierthismonth,Parnastriedandfailedtocarryoutaprimarytodetermineits
candidatelistforparliamentaryelectionslaterthisyear.Thepartywasmeanttobethe
vehicleforalarger"DemocraticCoalition,"butthatprojectsufferedamajorblowwhenanti-
corruptionactivistAlexeyNavalny's"PartyofProgress"pulledoutfromthealliance.Parnas
wentaheadwiththeprimary,anyway,butvotingwashaltedabruptlywhenhackersleaked
theelectorate'spersonaldata.Meduzatakesacloserlookathowtheprimaryflopped.
InApril2015,ahandfulofRussianoppositionpoliticalpartiesbandedtogetherandformed
theso-called"DemocraticCoalition."ThegroupconsistedofParnasandseveralother
unregisteredparties,includingAlexeyNavalny'sPartyofProgress.Theunregisteredparties
neededParnastofieldcandidatesinthecominggeneralelections,inordertoavoid
requirementsforcollectingmasssignaturestoqualifyforplacementontheballot.(Parnas
has"parliamentarypartystatus,"thankstooneofitsformerleaders,thelateBoris
Nemtsov,whohadaseatintheYaroslavlregionalDuma.)In2015,theDemocratic
Coalitionheldprimariestodeterminethegroup'scandidatesinregionalelectionsthatyear.
Thecampaignsallfailed,insomeplacesthankstointerferencefromtheauthorities,andin
otherplacestheycollapsedwithoutanyoutsidehelp.
TheDemocraticCoalitionwascreatedwiththe2016Dumaelectionsinmind,soRussia's
"nonsystemicopposition"couldoffervotersasinglelistofparliamentarycandidates.In
December2015,thegroup'svariouspartiesagreedthatformerPrimeMinisterMikhail
Kasyanov,thechairmanofParnas,wouldleadthecoalition'sticket.Thiswouldbe
Kasyanov'sfirsttimeparticipatinginelections.AlexeyNavalny,whowon27percentofthe
voteinthe2013Moscowmayoralrace,isunabletorunforelectedoffice,becauseofhis
criminalrecord.(Navalnyhasbeenconvictedandimplicatedinmultiplecasesthatare
widelyregardedoutsideRussiatobepoliticized.)
InearlyApril2016,thepro-KremlintelevisionnetworkNTVairedafilmaboutMikhail
KasyanovandParnasmemberNataliaPelevinathatcontainedfootageofanintimate
nature,filmedbyhiddencamera.Afterthereleaseofthisfilm,severalmembersofthe
DemocraticCoalition,includingAlexeyNavalnyandoppositionistIlyaYashin,calledon
Kasyanovtoremovehimselffromthetopofthecoalition'sticket,arguingthattheprimary
shoulddetermineallspotsonthelist.(TheDecember2015agreementstipulatedthatthe
primaryvotewoulddeterminethecoalition'sticket,exceptforthemanuallyassignedtop
threespots.)WhenKasyanovignoredthesedemands,YashinandNavalnyrespondedby
withdrawingtheirsupportfortheprimary,alsopersuadingVladimirMilovandhisparty
"DemocraticChoice"todropout.ThiseffectivelybroughtanendtotheDemocratic
Coalition.
Parnaswentaheadwiththeprimary,regardless.Thevotingwasscheduledtotakeplace
betweenMay28and29,hostedatParnas'websiteandatahandfulofphysicalvoting
stationsinselectcitiesacrossRussia.OnSunday,May29,afileappearedonParnas'
websitecontainingthepersonalinformationofeveryonewho'dvotedintheprimary.There
wereroughly7,000names,alongwiththeirloginsandpasswords.Parnaslaterdeclared
thatthiswastheworkofhackers(thoughitfirstsaidthedatahadappearedduetoan
"administrativeerror").Theparty'sbiggestmistakeappearstohavebeenstoringvoters'
personaldatawithoutanyencryption.
Beforehackersinterruptedtheprocess,thecandidateleadingthevotingwasamanfrom
SaratovnamedVyacheslavMaltsev.LittleknowninMoscow,Maltsevsaysheconsiders
himselfthe"bestreplacement"forthepresident'scurrentfirstdeputychiefofstaff,
VyacheslavVolodin(thetwowereborninthesamecity).Maltsevisalsoopenlyanti-
Semitic.Heusedtohaveaseatintheregionalparliament,buttodayhe'sbusymostlywith
hisvideo-blog,everyepisodeofwhichtypicallyattractstensofthousandsofviews.Parnas'
topfiveprimarywinners,beforevotingwassuspended,includedbetterknownpoliticians,
aswell,suchasKonstantinYankauskas,aMoscowcitycouncilman,who'salsoasuspect
inaninvestigationintoillegalcampaignfinancingforAlexeyNavalny's2013mayoral
campaign.Eventheselimitedprimaryresultsappeartobecompromised,however.Inthe
leakeddata,therewereroughly80voteraccountswiththesamepassword,suggesting
thatthesewerebotsoperatingtoinflatesupportforparticularcandidates.Whobenefitted
fromthesebotsisunclear.
ThePartyofProgresshasharshlycriticizedParnasforhowit'shandledpreparationsfor
the2016election,andNavalnyhimselfhaspersonallyaskedKasyanovtostepdownfrom
hispositionaschairmanofParnas.IlyaYashinsaysthegovernment'ssecurityforcesare
behindthecyberattackontheParnasprimary,buthebelievestheyhadhelpfromsomeof
thewebsite'sadministrators,whohesayshavetiestoKasyanov'sformermistress,Natalia
Pelevina.Kasyanov,meanwhile,hasrefusedtoresign.Parnaswillgoaheadwithits
campaign,shapingitspartyticketwithoutconsideringtheresultsoftheinterruptedprimary.
[returntoContents]
#12
Vedomosti
May27,2016
RussianpapersayspressureonNGOleadersincreasing
ElenaMukhametshina,Agentsunderpressure-expertsconsiderallheadsofindependent
NGOstobeatriskofcriminalprosecution
Inthewakeoftheshutting-offofforeignfundingfornon-governmentalorganisations
(NGOs)andthereductioninthenumberofindependenthumanrightsandenvironmental
NGOsinRussia,anewstagehasbegun:Theauthoritiesaresteppinguptheindividual
pressureonNGOleadersandactivists,saystheannualreportfromtheClubofNGO
Lawyersontheactivitiesoforganisationsdeemedtobeforeignagents.Thosesubjectto
suchpressureincludeGolosfounderLiliaShibanova,Golos-PovolzhyeheadLyudmila
Kuzmina,andValentinaCherevatenko,headoftheZhenshchinyDona[Womenoftheriver
Don]union,whomaybecomethefirstNGOheadtobeprosecutedforwillfulrefusalto
implementthelawonforeignagents.
ThelegislationonforeignagentscurtailedtheactivitiesofindependentNGOs,andthelaw
onundesirableorganisationsledtoforeigndonors(eventhosenotonthelistof
undesirables)refusingtofundRussianNGOs,whiletheNGOsthemselvesalsoare
returningmoneypreviouslydonatedtothem,thereportsays.Businessesarerefusingto
supportindependentNGOs,butstatesupportforNGOsloyaltotheauthoritieshasdoubled
-fromR2.3bnin2013toR4.6bnin2016.
Humanrightscampaignershavehighlightedthemainproblemslinkedtotheincreased
statemonitoringofNGOs.Forexample,severalofthemhavehadtorequesttheirown
inclusionontheregisterofagentsinordertoavoidfines(in2013-2014twoNGOs
voluntarilyjoinedtheregister,andin2015-2016eighthavedonesoalready).Normallysuch
suggestionscomefromtheregulatorybodiesandthisisleadingtoanexpansionofthe
conceptofpoliticalactivity:Forexample,in2015theSibaltorganization,whichdealswith
HIVissues,voluntarilybecameanagent,eventhoughpreviouslysuchactivityhadnotbeen
consideredpolitical.ThepressureonNGOshasalsobeenincreasedbyimposingfinesfor
failingtomarktheirworkwiththelabel"foreignagent".
ThirteenpercentoftheNGOsontheregisterofagentshaveceasedtoexist--theyare
usingself-closureasawayofremovingthemselvesfromtheregister,theexpertsexplain
(17NGOshavedonethis).MeanwhilenotasingleNGOhasbeenremovedfromthe
registerinconnectionwithendingitspoliticalactivity,andthecourtshaveneveroncefound
infavourofanNGOinadisputeaboutitsdesignationasanagent.Ontheotherhand,the
SupremeCourtforthefirsttimein2015begantocancelfinesimposedonNGOsfor
refusingtovoluntarilysignuptotheregister,andithasnotalwaysagreedwiththeJustice
Ministry'sconclusionsaboutpoliticalactivity.Thehumanrightscampaignersalsonotethat,
despitethepressure,thenumberofsmall,localgrassrootsinitiatives(themajority
concernedwithcharitablegiving)isincreasingandtheyaremanagingtoattractfunding.
MaksimOlenichev,headofthelegalserviceoftheClubofNGOLawyers,saysthatthe
authoritieshavebegunusingpreviouslyinactiveprovisionsofthelaw,forexample,fining
agentsforfailingtosubmitaccountsontime--thesefinesare60timesgreaterthanthose
forordinaryNGOs:"Aprocessofreplacingcivilsocietyisunderway--independent
organisationsaretodieout,whilemoreandmorepresidentialgrantsareallocatedto
NGOsthatimitatecivilsociety."UntiltheJusticeMinistryreceivestheorderfromthe
president'sadministrationtostanddown,thepressureonNGOswillcontinue,butfornowit
isnotclearwhetheritwillincreaseorstayatthesamelevel,saysAgorainternationalgroup
headPavelChikov:"Thegeneralmoodinthesectoristhatnooneexpectsanythingfrom
thisregime.Thesectorisworking,adaptingtotheaggressiveenvironmentwhichdoesnot
allowdevelopment."ChikovthinksthatalltheleadersofindependentNGOsareatriskof
criminalprosecution.ThepressureisaimedatthoseactivistswhoseNGOsareincludedin
theregister,MemoriallawyerKirillKoroteyevsays:"Theclosureoforganisationscontinues,
althoughsomeofthemwillremainontheregister.Afterall,itiseasiertogoafterNGOs
thanrealcriminals--thepersecutedthemselvessubmitthedocumentsusedfor
persecution,whileterrorists'fundingstreamsdonotpassthroughRosfinmonitoring
[FederalFinancialMonitoringService]."
[returntoContents]
#13
www.rbth.ru
June1,2016
'Putin'speople':Themysteriousagencythatguardsthepresident'slife
TheheadofRussia'sFederalProtectionService(FSO),responsibleforprotectingthelife
ofthepresident,hasbeenreplaced.RBTHlooksintowhatthischangemeansandwhat
thismostmysteriousofallRussianspecialservicesdoestoday.
YEKATERINASINELSCHIKOVA,RBTH
TheFederalProtectionService(FSO)isapowerful,multi-purposeandextremelysecretive
agency.ThereishardlyamoreclosedRussiansecurityforce-onlyassumptionscanbe
madeaboutitsactivities.Thereisnopublicdataaboutitsoperations,therearenopublicly
availablereports.
For16years,itwasheadedbyGeneralYevgenyMurov,alongtimeallyofPresident
VladimirPutin,who,liketheRussianleader,emergedfromtheLeningradpowerstructures
ofthelateSovietperiod.ButonMay26,PutinacceptedMurov'sresignationandappointed
hisdeputy,MuscoviteDmitryKochnev,tothepost.
Murov'sresignationisbelievedtobedowntohisage.Heturned70lastNovember,
reachingtheagelimitforcivilservants,andRussianmediahadlongbeenpredictinghis
imminentresignation.Oneofthecountry'smostinfluentialpeople,GeneralMurovtookup
thepositionofFSOhead11daysafterPutinbecamepresidentand,sotheysay,haskepta
tightholdonhispositioneversince.
Verylittleisknownaboutthenewappointee.Kochnevisamanwithoutabiographythereis
notawordtobefoundabouthimontheKremlin'sandtheFSO'swebsites.Itisonlyknown
thatheledthePresidentialSecurityService(partoftheFSO)fromtheendof2015,and
thathiswife,accordingtotheincomestatement,earned58.1millionrubles(about
$830,000)in2015-morethananyotheremployeeinthedepartment.
'Bodynumberone'
TherootsoftheFSOgobacktooneofthedirectoratesoftheKGB-theSoviet-erastate
agencywithveryextensivepowers.Thisdirectoratewasresponsibleforthesafetyoftop
officials,justastheFSOisnow.Therearemanylegendsabouttheirmissiontoprotect
"bodynumberone."For15years,rumorshavecirculatedthatFSOofficersusea
presidentialbodydoubleforPutin'sriskiestperformances-likesubmersibledivestothe
bottomofLakeBaikalorflyingafighterjet.
Sometimes,theFSOofficersaredressedinblacksuitswithamicrophoneintheear
sometimes,theywearcivilianclothesandgetlostinthecrowd.Onlythemosttrustedwork
there.Evenso,theyhavebeenknowntofallintotemptationandpostaworkselfieonsocial
networks-reportershaverepeatedlystumbledonsuchphotos,aswellasonpersonal
informationaboutFSOguards.
TheFSOofficersprotectnotonlythepresidentbutalsojudges,witnesses,officials,and
officialsitessuchastheKremlinandtheStateDuma.However,thisisonlyoneoftheir
manytasks(andopportunities).UnderGeneralMurov,theFSOdesperatelyfoughtformore
powersandthestatusofRussia'smainsecurityserviceagainstitsmainrival-theFSB
(FederalSecurityService).Anditseemstohavewon.
Controloverbillions
Inthemid-2000s,theFSO,alongwithotherspecialservices,wasinvolvedinatough
confrontationwithinthepowerstructuresfromtheRussianpresident'sinnercircle.The
infightingwasnotonlyfortheproximityto"objectnumberone,"butalsoforthecontrolof
cashflows,assetsandresources.
In2007,theconflictwasbroughtoutintheopenwhennotonlythecountry'sleadingmedia,
butalsotheheadsofthedepartmentsthemselves,startedtalkingabouta"feud"between
thesecretagencies.
TheFSOhadclasheswithbothwiththeFSB(whichdidnotendinfavorofthelatter),and
thePresidentialPropertyManagementDepartment.Thebattlerevolvedaroundtheproperty
ofthestate-thePropertyManagementDepartmentwasinchargeofsanatoriums,
constructionandtransportorganizations,andthefederalgovernment'sfoodplants,aswell
asforeignpropertyofthestateanddozensofdevelopmentprojects.
Ultimatelyitwas"Putin'sguards"whoprevailedinthis"battleofthesecurityforces."
AccordingtotheUnifiedStateRegister,theRussiannewsserviceRBKwrites,nosingle
presidentialresidenceismanagedtodaybythePropertyManagementDepartment,butis
underthesupervisionofeithertheRussianFederationitselfortheFSO.
TheFSO'scountlessassetsalsoincludethecompanyAteks,whichisaffiliatedwiththe
agency.ThesubsidiarywasestablishedontheordersofMurovin2003andisinvolvedin
theconstructionoffederalfacilities,aswellasinchargeofthestatebudget,distributing
statecontractsandplacingtendersformillionsandbillions(forexample,fortherestoration
ofthewallsandtowersoftheKremlin,Lenin'sMausoleum,ortheTchaikovsky
Conservatory).
Sociologyforthepresident
Butbillionsarenotall.TheFSOasaspecialserviceisalmostomnipotent-indeed,its
peoplehavetherighttocarryoutoperationalandinvestigativeactivities,conduct
wiretappingandopencorrespondence,detaincitizens,searchhomesandconfiscatecars.
Whileprotectingstateagencybuildingsandothersensitivesites,theFSOofficers,of
course,arealsoresponsibleforroutestothefacilities.Theyhavecontrolofevery12th
streetinMoscow,andtraditionallykeepdossiersonthosewhohappenedtolivethere.
Alongtheway,theFSOisengagedinsociologicalresearchprojects.Closedones,of
course.Thisdataiscollectedforthecountry'sleadership,anditisbelievedthatitistheir
reportsthatthepresident,theSecurityCouncilandthegovernmentrelyontomake
decisions.
Theagencypreparesrankingsofpartyandoppositionleadersandmonitorsthesocio-
economicsituationintheregions.Ifoneofthegovernorsresignsduetoalossof
confidenceintheirabilities,thechancesarethattheFSOhaveprovidedsomeassistance
inthematter.
OneoftherecentextensionsoftheFSO'spowersisthecreationanddevelopmentofthe
internet'sRussiansegmentforpublicservants.Thesepeoplewillalsobeinchargefor
encryptedcommunicationchannels.
[returntoContents]
#14
www.rt.com
June1,2016
'Exemplaryintlrelations:'Russia-ChinatiesattheirpeakdespiteWesternsanctions
RussiaandChinahavestrengthenedtheircooperationandprovedtheirpartnershipisvital
despiteWesternsanctionsandWashington'sdisapprovaloftheirstrategicalliance,
participantsoftheRussia-ChinaforuminMoscowtoldRT.
"Togetherwecanbecomeacenterthatcaninfluenceglobalprocesses,"BorisTitov,co-
chairmanoftheRussian-ChineseFriendshipcommitteeandRussia'sombudsmanfor
entrepreneurs'rights,toldRTonTuesday.
WhilesecuringfundingintheWesthasbecomemoredifficult,thesanctionsthemselves
donotposeagreatchallengeforRussia-Chinacooperation,astheydonotaffectmutual
projectsinvolvingmid-sizedandsmallbusinesses,accordingtoTitov.
"Weviewsanctionsasoflittleimportancetotheeconomy,"stressedtheombudsman.
HugemarketsforRussiangoodshavebeencreatedinChina,especiallyenvironment-
friendlyproducts,whicharehighindemand.
"Politicsalwayscontradictseconomicinterests,businessisfarawayfrompolitics,we
needhonestanddirectrelations,"theco-chairmannoted,addingthatoneofthemain
obstaclestoclosercooperationisthesprawlingredtapeafflictingbothcountries.
TakingintoaccountChina'svastexperiencelivingundersanctions,RussiaandChina"will
beabletogothroughthisperiodsignificantlybettertogether."
ForRussia,theexpansionofeconomicactivitiesintoAsia,andEastAsiainparticular,isof
crucialimportance,astheregionprovides"significantopportunities"intermsofinvestment
andtrade,YaroslavLisovolik,chiefeconomistattheEurasianDevelopmentBank,said.
Lisovoliksaid,giventheWest'sapparentreluctancetoremedyrelationswithRussiaand
Beijing,itwill"simplystarttoloseinvestmentandtradeflows"tosanctions,seriouslycalling
theirlong-termeffectivenessintoquestion.
Countriesimposingindiscriminaterestrictivemeasuresthathurtmostlythebroadmasses,
andnottargetedatelites,"shouldbereadytotakethepriceofsanctions"ontheirown
economies,saidNandanUnnikrishnan,VicePresidentandSeniorFellowattheObserver
ResearchFoundationinNewDelhi.
"Ifyousanctionmeyoucannotbemypartner,"theresearcherstressed,addingthathe
thinksthatsanctionsremain"animpedimenttothegrowthofclosereconomicties"
betweenChinaandRussia.
TheintertwinednatureofUS-ChinaeconomicrelationsisforcingChineseleadersto
carefullyexaminealloftheconsequencesbefore"thestrategicembracetakesplace
betweenChinaandRussia,"heobserved.
DespitethecomplexityofrelationsintheUS-China-Russiatriangle,thepotentialforChina-
Russiacooperationisstill"huge,"astheyshareacommonmultipolarapproachto
"Neitherofthetwocountrieswanthegemonyintheworld-thiscombinesRussianand
Chineseinterestsatthisstage,"Unnikrishnanconcluded.
Infact,thisstrategyhasbornefruitintheAsiaPacificregionasawhole,arguesLi
Yongquan,DirectoroftheInstituteofRussian,EastEuropeanandCentralAsianStudiesat
theChineseAcademyofSocialSciences(CASS).
"ThedevelopmentofChina-Russiatiesensuredstabilityintheregion"forthepast20
years,whichshouldserveastheexample"foreveryoneelseintheworld"intermsof
Commentingondestabilizingfactorsintheregion,theresearcherblamedtheUSforthe
risingtensionsovertheSouthChinaSea,someareasofwhicharecontestedbetween
ChinaandWashington'sallies.
"Inthepast,SouthChinaSeawasneveranissue.Somecountriesinthepastrecognizing
China'ssovereigntyintheregionhaverecentlychangedtheirstance,"hesaid,notingthat
thisisa"man-madeproblem"forgedbytheUS.
TitovsaidthatclosecooperationbetweenRussiaandChinaisanirritantfortheUS,which
hasprompteditsattemptstothwartaRussia-Chinastrategicalliance.
However,"bothChineseandRussianleadershipunderstandthatwearebettertogether
andwearenotsoworriedaboutAmericaanditsattitudetothisissue."
Earlierattheforum,RussiaandChinaagreedtoincreasetradefrom$90billionthisyearto
$200billionwithinthenextfouryears.RussianDeputyPrimeMinisterArkadyDvorkovich
describedtheambitiousgoalas"challengingbutrealistic."ChinaisRussia'ssecond
largesttradepartneraftertheEU.
[returntoContents]
#15
Sputnik
June1,2016
DiplomaticTightrope:WillRussiaSolveYetAnotherSyrianProblem
WiththepeaceprocessinSyriastalling,theinternationaltalksslowlyfallingintosleep
modeandthebloodshedstillraginginthecountry'snorthernpart,Moscowisproposinga
remarkablediplomaticsolutiontothecountry'sseethingethnictensions.
Russia,whichbyitsownadmissionhaseliminatedover28,000terroristssincethestartof
theSyrianoperationlastSeptember,isnowattemptingtotakeovertheleadingrolein
negotiationsonthefutureofSyria,theDanishnewspaperPolitikensuggested.
SurprisinglytotheWest,whichmainlyseesRussiaasasupporterofAssad,Moscow,has
recentlymadeanumberofproposalsforanewconstitution,whichmaygreatlyrestrictand
decentralizeAssad'spower.Oneofthemisaproposaltolimitthepresident'stermofoffice
tosevenyears,Politikenwrote.Accordingtoathink-tankundertheRussianForeign
Ministry,theRussianproposalaimsatsubstantiallylimitingtheSyrianpresident'spowerto
makeAssad'sresignationunnecessarybecausehisroleafteratransitionperiodwillbe
nothingbutmarginal.
Russiaproposesthatthepresidentshouldbeincreasinglyresponsibletotheelected
parliament.Thepresidentwillthereforelackanylegislativepowers,whichshallinsteadbe
vestedintheparliament.TheRussiandraftconstitutionalsoomitstheformerlycrucial
principlethattheSyrianpresidentmustbeaMuslim,Politikenwrote.
InthedraftofanewSyrianconstitution,whichwasrecentlyleakedtothemediainthe
MiddleEast,RussiasuggestedthatSyriashouldchangeitsofficialnamefromtheSyrian
ArabRepublictotheRepublicofSyria,inordertoappealtoethnicminoritiessuchasKurds
andTurkmen,Politikenreported,citingGulfNews.
Besides,theRussiandraftwillsupposedlygivetheSyrianKurdsaconstitutionalrightto
speaktheirownlanguageonparwithArabic.However,theKurdishautonomymustnotbe
politicaloreconomic,butrathercultural,theLebanesenewspaperal-Akhbarwrote.
OnegoalthatKurdsandArabscurrentlyhaveincommonthesedaysistooutDaeshfrom
thetownofRaqqa.However,reconciliationbetweenthetwoethniccommunitiesmayprove
atoughtaskinthefuture,accordingtothelatestpoll,Politikenwrote,quotingtheSyrian
Observer.
IntheautonomousKurdishregionneartheborderwithTurkey,awhole79.6percentofthe
populationspokeinfavoroffederalism,whichinfuturecanguaranteethemautonomy.At
thesametime,roughlyasmanynon-Kurds(78.1percent)opposeanyautonomyfor
minorities.Inthegovernment-controlledareas,65.6percentofthepopulationareagainst
decentralizationandpreferasinglegovernmentwithallthepower.However,55.3percent
ofthepopulationinareasunderrebelcontrolareinfavorofdecentralization.
Alawites,theethnicgroupfromwhichAssadhimselfcomesfrom,areknownasthe
fiercestopponentsofanyautonomy,which,accordingtoPolitiken,maybeperceivedasa
"reluctancetoshareSyria."
Earlier,RussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovsaidRussiawouldsupportSyria's
federalization,aslongasitisbackedbythecountry'sinhabitants.
"Whicheverformofgovernment,beitfederalization,decentralizationoraunitarystate,
mustbeapprovedbyallSyrians,"LavrovsaidasquotedbyRIANovosti."Wehavenever
triedtomakedecisionsonbehalfoftheSyrianpeople,"hestressed.
Priortothewar,SyriahadanArabmajorityof74percentofthepopulation.TheKurds
madeupsome9percent,whereastheTurkmennumberedsome100,000.
[returntoContents]
#16
www.rbth.ru
May31,2016
PoliticaldivisionoverUkrainesetssceneforthawinRussia-EUrelations
ThereleaseofUkrainianpilotNadiyaSavchenkobyMoscowandhintsinGermanyofa
relaxationonsanctions,aswellaspositiveoverturestowardRussiabyEUCommission
PresidentJean-ClaudeJuncker,haveraisedrealhopesthatRussiaandtheEUmaybe
readytostartrebuildingtheirrelationship.
ByBryanMacDonald
BryanMacDonaldisaMoscow-basedcommentator.
ThoseexperiencingaSiberianwinterforthefirsttimeusuallyagreeononething.Thatit
feelslikeitwillneverend.OftenthefirstsnowcomesinlateOctoberand,incertain
regions,canendureuntilthefollowingMay.ByMarch,mostnewarrivalsarestartingto
questiontheirmove.Andsanity.Nevertheless,whenthethawarrives,itactsquicklyanda
glorioussummerusuallyfollows.
Inrecentyears,Russian-EUrelationsbeenstuckinadeepfreezeofSiberianproportions.
FromBrussels'pointofview,Moscowhasbehavedappallinglyin"annexing"Crimeaand
sponsoringrebelswhohavecausedmayheminUkraine.
Infact,NATObelievesthattheKremlin'ssupporthasgonemuchfurtherandthatactual
Russiansoldiershavebeencovertlyoperatingthere.Atthesametime,someEurocrats
haveaccusedMoscowof"weaponizing"everythingfrominformationtomigrationina
"hybridwar"againstEUstates.
ViewedfromtheKremlin,thesituationlooksdifferent.Russianofficialsareadamantthat
EurocratsdestabilizedUkrainebyforcingthedividedcountryintomakingadefinitivechoice
betweenMoscowandBrussels.
Indeed,theyareconvincedthatthe"EasternPartnership"programwasdesigned
specificallytoweakenRussia.Additionally,someRussianapparatchikshaveopenlystated
theirconvictionthattheEUhasturnedintothe"politicalwing"ofNATOandisultimately
controlledbytheUnitedStates.
Glacialwinter
WhenitcomestoCrimea,RussiansinsistthatMoscow's"reabsorption"ofthepeninsula
wasthefreeanddemocraticchoiceoflocalresidents.Interestingly,thisstanceisbacked
upbysomeWesternopinionpollfirms,asForbesmagazinereportedinMarch2015.
Despitethis,manyWesterngovernmentsstillmaintainthattheywillneverrecognisethe
legitimacyofRussiancontrolinCrimea.Fearofsettingaprecedentthatcouldlaterbe
usedtowreakhavocontheBalticstatesisprobablyasignificantfactorinthisthinking.
Thus,whilemanybusinessandpersonalconnectionsremainstrong,atpoliticallevel
Russian/EUrelationshavebeenglacial.Worryingly,signsofasofteninghaveoften
seemedveryfarawayasrhetoricfrombothsideshasebbedandflowed.However,this
pastweek,thingshavechanged.Andthey'vefollowedthepatternofalate-arrivingSiberian
springbybrisklydefrosting.
Herecomesthesun?
TheprocessseemedtobeginonthemorningofMay25whenRussianPresidentVladimir
PutinpardonedUkraine'sNadiyaSavchenko,whosedetentionandconvictionhadcaused
Westernoutrage.Immediately,EUofficialswerefallingoverthemselvestocelebratethe
move.
Bytheweekend,theGermannewsweeklyDerSpiegel,whichisoftenregardedasthe
housejournalofAngelaMerkel'sCDUparty,wasreportingthatBerlinwasconsideringthe
relaxationofsanctionsagainstRussia.
Ofcourse,themotivesheremightnotbetotallybenevolent.Afterall,someEUleaders-
mostnotablyinFrance,ItalyandGreece-haveexpresseddissatisfactionwiththepolicy.
Asaresult,Merkelmayfeelthatretainingunityontheissue,asthingsstand,isimpossible
andthatcompromiseisneededtopreserveEUconsensus.
Whateverthereasons,thefactthatDerSpiegelcarriedthestoryalmostcertainlymeans
thatitreflectsGermangovernmentthinking.Andtalkofsanctionsrollbackismusicto
Moscow'searsrightnow.
Then,justwhentheKremlinwasdigestingthenotionoftheembargoeasing,uppopped
Jean-ClaudeJunckerwithevenbetternews.OnMay30,theEUCommissionpresident
revealedthathewillattendnextmonth'sSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,
widelyknownasthe"RussianDavos."Hisspokeswomansaidthat"hewillusethis
opportunitytoconveytotheRussianleadershipaswellastoawideraudiencetheEU's
perspectiveregardingthecurrentstateofEU-Russiarelations."
LeonardCohenoncewrotethat"there'sacrackineverything.That'showthelightgetsin."
Yet,ithastakenalongtimeforBrusselsandMoscowtouncoveraluminouscrevice.
Russianswillnowhopethatthisdiplomaticwinterisfinallyover.Sowillmanyofthe
EuropeanbusinessesthathavesufferedunderMoscow'scounter-sanctions.
[returntoContents]
#17
NewYorkTimes
June1,2016
UkraineDeclaresWaronJournalism
ByIANBATESON
IanBatesonisworkingonabookaboutUkrainianidentityaftertheMaidanrevolution.
KIEV,Ukraine-InJuly2014,IwenttoDonetsk,aseparatist-controlledregionineastern
Ukraine,tocovertheshootingdownofMalaysiaAirlinesFlight17.Itwasadangerousplace
atthetime.TheUkrainianmilitaryandtherebelswereshellingeachother,and
temperamentalmenwithKalashnikovswhohadbeenknowntokidnapjournalistswere
everywhere.
Likemanyforeignreporters,Iwastheretorelaywhatwashappeningtotheremainsofthe
downedflight's298passengersandcrewmembers.BeforeIwenttothecrashsite,I
obtainedaccreditationfromtheseparatists.ThisdidnotguaranteethatIwouldbesafe,but
itwastheonlywaytogetpastthearmedcheckpoints.
NowUkrainehaslabeledmeanaccompliceinterrorism.
OnMay7,thewebsiteMirotvorets("Peacemaker"),courtesyofanonymoushackers,
publishedpartoftheseparatists'accreditationrecords.Myname,emailaddressandphone
numberwereamongthoseofmorethan4,000journalists,includingfreelancerslikeme,as
wellascorrespondentsfromthisnewspaper,Reuters,theBBCandotheroutlets.Wewere
collectivelylabeled"terroristcollaborators"forgainingaccreditationfromtheseparatists.
Thelist'spublishersclaimednottoknowwhattheconsequenceswouldbeofreleasingthis
information,butitseemedclearthattheintentwastoencouragepeopletotakeaction
againstthejournalistsontheirown.
AntonGerashchenko,amemberofUkraine'sParliamentandanadvisertotheMinistryof
Interior,praisedthepublicationofthelistandcalledforjournaliststoassistUkraineinits
"informationwar"withRussia.Condemnationofthelistfollowedfromorganizations
includingtheOrganizationforSecurityandCo-operationinEuropeandtheCommitteeto
ProtectJournalists.Ukraine'sombudsmancalledforthewebsitetobeblocked.Ascriticism
built,thepeoplerunningMirotvoretssaidtheywouldtaketheirwebsiteofflineandtheKiev
prosecutor'sofficebegananinvestigationintowhetherornotthoserunningthesitehad
committedacrime.
Inresponse,theinteriorminister,ArsenAvakov,declaredhissupportforMirotvoretsand
accusedthosewhocriticizedthepublicationofthelistofharboringseparatistsympathies.
HisFacebookpostreceivedover3,000likes,andthepublicationofthelistisstrongly
supportedbythepublic.AfteranofficialfromtheMinistryofInformationPolicysaidonTV
thatthelistthreatenedthelivesofjournalistsherboss,YuriyStets,postedanapologyon
socialmedia,sayingthattheofficialdidnotrepresenttheministry'sposition.
Emboldenedbythesupport,thewebsiteisnowbackonlineandhaspostedadditional
journalists'contactinformation.Theeditorsstatedthattheywouldnotlistentothe
"whimpering"about"freedomofspeech."AnadvisertotheheadoftheUkrainianSecurity
Serviceannouncedthatthejournalistsonthelistswerebeinginvestigatedaspotential
spies.
Theselistsarenominallyaboutwhohasinteractedwiththeseparatistrebels,butthey
createawider-andmoredangerous-precedent.Thewebsiteanditssupportersin
governmentaresuggestingthatjournalistscanbedividedintotwocamps:thosewho
supportthestateandthosewhoareagainstit,withtheimplicationthatjournalistswho
criticizethegovernmentshouldbesilenced.
Thisisdangerousinanysociety,butespeciallyinUkrainerightnow,wherecritical
journalismisespeciallynecessary.Fewreformshavegonefullyintoeffectandthecountry
hasrecentlytakenahardturnbacktowardcronyism.PresidentPetroO.Poroshenko
installedacloseallyasprimeminister,breakingthedivisionoflegislativeandexecutive
powerestablishedaftertheMaidanSquareprotestsin2014thatledtotheousterofhis
predecessor.Healsonamedacronywithnolawdegreeasgeneralprosecutor.As
corruptionandnepotismthreatenthehopeofUkraine'srevolution,journalistsarebeingtold
thattheyarehelpingtheenemyjustbydoingtheirjobs.
UkrainehaslongfeltoutgunnedbyRussia'spropagandamachine.Moscow'sstate-
sponsoredTVchannelsandInternettrollshavetriedtodivideUkraineandturnglobal
sentimentagainstit.Kievlacksthebudgettomatchthosepropagandaprojects,butmany
Ukrainianpublicationsandjournalistsavoidreportingnewsthatlooksbadfortheircountry
orcouldserveRussianpropaganda.Ukrainianofficialsrecognizedthisreluctanceasa
usefulpoliticaltool.TheynowseektoexplainawayanycriticismasRussian"hybrid
warfare."ThatishowMr.PoroshenkodismissedaNewYorkTimeseditorialcriticizinghis
failuretotacklecorruption.
Intryingtoencourage"patriotic"journalism,inwhichthestatealwaysreceivesthebenefit
ofthedoubt,Ukrainianofficialsareactuallyfosteringajournalismculturesimilarto
Russia's.Russia,too,chastisesreportersandpublicationsthatpublishstoriescriticalof
thegovernmentfornotbeingpatriotic.Andthat'swhynotmanydosoanymore.Recently,
theeditorialstaffofoneofthefewremainingindependentnewsorganizationsinRussia,
RBC,wasdismissedfollowinggovernmentpressure.Therearealsodarkerchaptersof
silencingcriticaljournalists,includingaccusationsofmurder.
MostseniorUkrainianofficialshaveavoidedcommentingonthereleaseofjournalists'
namesandinformation.ButtheyshouldnowactinaccordancewiththeWesternvalues
thattheyclaimtobelieve,andcondemnthedefamationofjournalistsjustforworkingin
separatist-controlledareas.Theymustalsoensurethattheoffendingwebsiteisshutdown
andthattheinvestigationintowhopublishedthelistresultsincriminalcharges.Thisalone
willnotensurethatthecountry'snewsmediaisfreeandfair,butitwillhelpsettheright
tone.Ukrainemustnotsacrificepressfreedominitsstruggletosurvivewar.
[returntoContents]
#18
TheTimesofIsrael
May31,2016
Ukrainehonorsnationalistwhosetroopskilled50,000Jews
CountryforthefirsttimeobservesaminuteofsilenceinmemoryofSymonPetliura,a
1920sstatesmankilledbyaRussia-bornJew
AmidadivisivedebateinUkraineonstatehonorsfornationalistsviewedasresponsiblefor
anti-Semiticpogroms,thecountryforthefirsttimeobservedaminuteofsilenceinmemory
ofSymonPetliura,a1920sstatesmanblamedforthemurderof50,000Jewish
compatriots.
TheminutewasobservedonMay25,the90thanniversaryofPetliura'sassassinationin
Paris.Nationaltelevisionchannelsinterruptedtheirprogramsandbroadcasttheimageofa
burningcandlefor60seconds,Ukraine'sFederalNewsAgencyreported.
AFrenchcourtacquittedSholomSchwartzbard,aRussia-bornJew,ofthemurdereven
thoughheadmittedtoitafterthecourtfoundthatPetliurahadbeeninvolvedinorknewof
pogromsbymembersofhismilitiafightingforUkrainianindependencefromRussiainthe
years1917-1921.FifteenofSchwartzbard'srelativesperishedinthepogroms.
Separately,thedirectorofUkraine'sInstituteofNationalRemembrance,Vladimir
Vyatrovich,saidinastatementonMondaythatKievwillsoonnameastreetfortwoother
Ukrainiannationalists-StepanBanderaandRomanShukhevych-whoarewidelybelieved
toberesponsibleforlethalviolenceagainstJews.AnotherstreetistobenamedforJanusz
Korczak,thepennameofHenrykGoldszmit,aPolishJewishteacherwhowasmurdered
inAuschwitz.
BanderaandShukhevychcollaboratedwithNaziforcesthatoccupiedwhatisnowUkraine
andarebelievedtohavecommandedtroopsthatkilledthousandsofJews.Onceregarded
byUkrainianauthoritiesasillegitimatetoserveasnationalrolemodelsbecauseoftheirwar
crimesagainstJewsandPoles,Petliura,BanderaandShukhevycharenowopenly
honoredinUkrainefollowingarevolutionspearheadedbynationalistsin2014.
EduardDolinsky,directoroftheUkrainianJewishCommittee,condemnedtheplantoname
streetsforBanderaandShukhevych.
"MycountrymenshouldknowthatBanderaandShukhevychconsideredmeandallofthe
UkrainianJews-children,women,theelderly-enemiesofUkrainians,"hewroteon
Facebook.
Inthe2014upheaval,streetprotestersbroughtdownthegovernmentofPresidentViktor
Yanukovych,whomcriticsperceivedasacorruptRussianstooge.Therevolution
unleashedawaveofnationalistsentimentandwithitthenamingofstreetsandmemorial
eventsforthethreemenandtheirpeersacrossUkraine,wheretheyarehonoredfor
fightingRussiandomination.
TheissueisdivisiveamongJewsandnon-JewsinUkraine,where40percentofthe
populationareethnicRussians,andwherethousandshavediedsinceRussian-backed
separatistssparkedaconflictin2014betweenUkraineandRussia.
EfraimZuroff,theIsraeldirectoroftheSimonWiesenthalCenter,andsomeUkrainian
Jewishleadershaveprotestedthistrend,callingitawhitewashingofinvolvementinanti-
SemiticmurdersbyUkrainiansandNazis.
ButotherUkrainianJewishleaders,includingJosefZissels,chairmantheVaadorganization
ofUkrainianJews,arguethatthepreoccupationwiththissubject"leadstounnecessary
assignmentofblamethatservesonlyretrospectionbutfailstoofferavisionforthefuture"
inacountrywhereJewsenjoyequalrightsandsufferfeweranti-Semiticassaultsthanin
manyotherEuropeanstates,ZisselstoldJTAlastmonth.
DuringadebateonthesubjectlastweekinKiev,Zisselssaidhedoubted"thatJewish
booksdescribewhatsomeJewsdidtoUkrainians"thewaytheydescribeUkrainian
atrocitiesagainstJews.InUkraine,manybelievecommunistJewsbeararesponsibilityfor
Sovietoppression.
DolinskycondemnedZissels'statement,sayingitcreatesafalsemoralequivalenceand
perpetuatesanti-Semiticstereotypes.SovietJews,hearguedonFacebook,oppressed
UkrainiansnotasJewsbutasSovietsalongwithofficialsofvariousethnicities,while
UkrainiannationalistsmurderedJewswhileflyingtheUkrainiannationalistbanner.
[returntoContents]
#19
RussiaInsider
www.russia-insider.com
June1,2016
WhoAretheUkrainians?
DoesUkrainestillputyourheadinaspin?ASerbo-Lithuanianacademicgivesaclear
breakdownofexactlywhat'Ukraine'and'Ukrainians'are
ByVladislavSotirovi
[Graphicsherehttp://russia-insider.com/en/politics/who-are-ukrainians/ri14726]
TheauthorisaprofessorattheInstituteofPoliticalSciences,MykolasRomerisUniversity,
Vilnius,Lithuania.HewrotethisarticleespeciallyforRI.
UkraineisaterritoryinEastEuropethatwaspartofthewesternRussianEmpirefromthe
mid-17thcentury.Todayitisaanindependentstateandaseparateethnolinguisticnation,a
typicalexampleofBenedictAnderson'smodelofan"imaginedcommunity"-aself-
constructedideaofanartificialethnicandlinguistic-culturalidentity.
Before2014,Ukrainewashometosome46millioninhabitantsofwhom,accordingto
officialdata,around77percentdeclaredthemselvesasUkrainians.YetmanyRussiansdo
notconsidertheUkrainiansortheBelarusas"foreign"butratherasregionalbranchesof
theRussiannationality.
UnlikeRussia,thenationalidentityoftheBelarusortheUkrainianswasneverfirmlyfixed,
butalwayschangingandevolving.(OnUkrainianself-identityconstruction,see:KarinaV.
Korostelina,ConstructingtheNarrativesofIdentityandPower:Self-ImaginationinaYoung
UkrainianNation,Lanham,Maryland:LexingtonBooks,2014).
UkrainebetweenPolandandRussia
Theself-constructingidentityoftheUkrainiansafter1991isbasicallyseenvis--vis
Ukraine'stwomostpowerfulneighbors:PolandandRussia.Inotherwords,theself-
constructingUkrainianidentity(liketheMontenegrinortheBelarus)isonlyabletoclaimthat
UkrainiansareneitherPolesnorRussians.Whattheyreallyareisdebatable.The
existenceofanindependentUkraineasthenationalstateoftheUkrainiansisdoubtfulfrom
boththehistoricalandethnolinguisticperspectives.
TheSlavonictermUkraine,forinstance,intheSerbo-CroatKrajina,meansaBorderlandin
English-aprovincialterritorysituatedontheborderbetweenatleasttwopoliticalentities,in
thisparticularhistoricalcase,betweentheKingdomofPolandandtheGrandDuchyof
Lithuania,orRzeczpospolita,theRepublicofBothNations(15691795),andtheRussian
Empire.AGermanhistoricaltermforUkrainewouldbemark-meaningastate'sborderland
fromthetimeofCharlemagne,whichmostlycameintouseafterthe1667Treatyof
AndrussovobetweenRussiaandthePolish/LithuanianCommonwealth.
Inotherwords,UkraineandtheUkrainiansasanaturalobjective-historical-culturalidentity
neverexisted,sincetheywereconsideredasageo-politicalterritorybetweentwoother
natural-historicalentities(PolandandRussia).
All(quasi)historiographicalmentioningofthislandandthepeopleasUkraine/Ukrainians
beforethemid-17thcenturyarescientificallyincorrectandinmostcasespoliticallyinspired
forthepurposeofpresentingthemascruciallydifferentfromthehistoricalRussianethnic
genus(forinstance:AlfredasBumblauskas,GenuteKirkiene,FeliksasSabuldo
(sudarytojai),Ukraina:Lietuvosepocha,13201569,Vilnius:Moksloirenciklopediju
leidyboscentras,2010).
TheRoleoftheVatican
ItwastheVaticanthatwasbehindthecreationofthe"imaginedcommunity"of
"Ukrainians",forthepurposeofseparatingthepeopleofthisborderlandterritoryfromthe
OrthodoxRussianEmpire.
TheVatican'sclientAustria-Hungarydidthesamewithrespecttothenationalidentityofthe
Bosnian-HerzegovinianpopulationwhenitwasruledbytheAustro-HungarianMonarchy
from1878to1918,creatingatotallyartificialethnolinguisticidentity-the"Bosnians",as
opposedtothe(Orthodox)Serbs,whowereatthattimeastrongmajorityoftheprovincial
population)(.,-,
:,2000.)
ThecreationofanartificialethnolinguisticUkrainiannationalidentity,followedbyaseparate
nationality,waspartofawiderVaticanpolitical-confessionalprojectinitsstruggleagainst
EasternOrthodoxChristianity(theeastern"schism"),aspartofthePope'straditionalpolicy
ofproselytizing"infidels"withaviewtotheirreconversion.Oneofthemostsuccessful
instrumentsofsoft-reconversionusedbytheVaticanwastoforcepartoftheOrthodox
populationtosigntheRomanCatholicChurch'sUnionAct,thusrecognizingthesupreme
powerofthePopeandthedogmaticFilioque("andfromtheSon",i.e.,theHolySpirit
proceedsfromtheFatherandtheSon).
FormerOrthodoxbelieversbecameUniateBrothers,orGreekOrthodoxbelievers,then
pureRomanCatholics,changingalsotheiroriginalOrthodoxethnolinguisticidentity.For
instance,it'sclearinthecaseoftheOrthodoxSerbsintheZhumberakareaofCroatia,who
wentfrombeingOrthodoxSerbstoGreekOrthodox,thenRomanCatholicsandfinally
today"Croats".
TheBrestUnion
SomethingsimilaroccurredinUkraine.OnOctober9th,1596theVaticanannouncedthe
BrestUnionwithpartoftheOrthodoxpopulationwithinthebordersoftheRomanCatholic
Lithuanian-PolishCommonwealth(todayUkraine).(ArunasGumuliauskas,Lietuvosistorija:
vykiaiirdatos,Siauliai:SiauresLietuva,2009,44Didysisistorijosatlasasmokyklai:Nuo
pasaulioirLietuvospriesistorsikinaujausijulaiku,Vilnius:LeidyklaBriedis,(withoutyearof
publishing)108.).
Thecrucialissueinthismatteristhattoday,Ukraine'sUniatesandRomanCatholicshave
mostlyanti-Russian,Ukrainiannationalidenitities.Basically,boththepresent-dayUkrainian
andBelarusethnolinguisticandnationalidentitiesarehistoricallyfoundedontheanti-
OrthodoxpolicyoftheVaticanwithintheterritoryoftheformerPolish-Lithuanian
Commonwealththatwasinessenceanti-Russian.
LithuanianhistoriographyontheChurchUnionofBrestin1596clearlyconfirmsthat:
"...theCatholicChurchmoreandmorestronglypenetratedthezoneoftheOrthodox
Church,givinganewimpetustotheidea,whichhadbeencherishedsincethetimeof
JogailaandVytautasandformulatedintheprinciplesoftheUnionofFlorencein1439,but
neverputintoeffect-thesubordinationoftheGrandDuchyofLithuaniaOrthodoxChurch
tothePope'srule"[(ZigmantasKiaupaetal,TheHistoryofLithuaniaBefore1795,Vilnius:
LithuanianInstituteofHistory,2000,288]).
Inotherwords,therulersoftheRomanCatholicGrandDuchyofLithuania(theGDL)from
thetimeofLithuania'sbaptizingin13871413bytheVatican,plannedtoconvertall
OrthodoxbelieversoftheGDL,whoseoverwhelmingmajoritywereSlavs.Relationswith
Moscowbecameveryhostile,sinceRussiaassumedtheroleofprotectorofOrthodox
believers,makingtheBrestChurchUnionseemlikeacriminalactbyRomeanditsclient-
state,theRepublicofTwoNations(Poland-Lithuania).
learDivide
Today,itisindisputablethatthemostpro-westernandanti-RussianpartofUkraineisWest
Ukraine-thelandsthatwerehistoricallyundertheruleoftheRomanCatholicformer
Polish-LithuanianCommonwealthandtheformerHabsburgMonarchy.Itisobviousfrom
thepresidentialvotingresultsin2010,whenthepro-westernregionsvotedforJ.
Tymoshenko,whilethepro-RussianregionswentforV.Yanukovych.Itreflectsthepost-
SovietUkrainianidentitydilemmabetween"Europe"and"Eurasia"-adilemmathatapplies
toalltheCentralandEastEuropeannationswhohavehistoricallybeenbufferzones
betweentheGermanMittelEuropaprojectandtheRussianprojectofpan-Slavonicunity
andreciprocity.
Ingeneral,thewesternterritoriesofpresent-dayUkrainearemainlypopulatedbyRoman
Catholics,EasternOrthodoxandUniates,andtendtobenationalisticandpro-western.
EasternUkraineisinessenceRussophoneandsubsequently"tendstolooktocloser
relationswithRussia"[JohnS.Dryzek,LeslieTemplemanHolmes,Post-Communist
Democratization:PoliticalDiscoursesAcrossThirteenCountries,CambridgeNewYork:
CambridgeUniversityPress,2002,114].
[returntoContents]
#20
RussiaRemainsaByzantineStateandthatMayDoomIt,'Gazeta'EditorsSay
PaulGoble
Staunton,June1-ThephotographsofVladimirPutinsittingonwhatmanyfalsely
supposedwasthethroneofByzantineemperorshavepromptedmanytolaughbutothers
tonotethat"RussiaeventodayinmanywaysremainsanheiroftheByzantineempire,"
accordingtotheeditorsofMoscow's"Gazeta."
Russians"borrowedfromthislostempirenotonlytheirmainreligionbutalsoits
politicalhabits"inbothforeignanddomesticpolicy,"thepapersays,notingthatthese
include"sayingonething,thinkinganotheranddoingathird"therebymakingthe
relationshipofwordsandactionsextremelyproblematic
(gazeta.ru/comments/2016/05/30_e_8271917.shtml).
Butitalsomeansthatwhenevertheauthoritiesact,peopleimmediatelyask
themselveswhattheaction"really"meansbecausenoonecanbesurethatthereasons
theauthoritiesgivearetherealones.Andthisformofdoubletalk,thepapersays,israpidly
becoming"thenormofourpresent-dayliferatherthananexception."
"Byzantinepolitics,"theeditorssay,"iswhencriminalprosecutionscanservenot
onlyasaneffectivemeansofsharingoutpropertybutalsocanbeusedforremovingan
unsuitablepolitician."Buttheyhavetheeffectofmakinganyhonestdiscussionofwhat
shouldbedonealmostimpossible.
Thatisbecausesuchpoliticsare"impossiblewithoutacultoftheabstract,"aswas
shownbytherecentexchangebetweenAlekseyKudrinandVladimirPutin.Kudrin,thefirst
inseveralyearstochallengePutin'sforeignpoliciesofisolation,wasputinhisplacebythe
Kremlinrulerbecauseofthelatter'sideologicalunderstandingofsovereignty.
PutintoldKudrinthatRussiawouldnotbethefirsttoworktolessen"tensions"with
theWestbecausetodosowouldbetocallintoquestionits"millenniumofhistory"and
representakindof"'trading[away]ofsovereignty.'"
"Byzantiumbythewayalsoconstantlyappealedtoitsgreathistoryasthepreserver
oftheHellenicworld,""Gazeta"says.Itexistedintheendfor1058years,alongtimebut
"farfromarecordamongempires."
ButthemainthingabouttheexchangebetweenKudrinandPutinisthequestionit
raises:whyshouldpoliticalandeconomiccooperationwithothercountriesnecessarily
"leadto'thesellingoffofsovereignty?'"Inreality,nooneistryingtotakeitawayfrom
Russiaortobuyitasthisexchangemightsuggest.
"If,however,"oneunderstandsundersovereigntyonlytherighttodowhateverone
wantsregardlessofothers,thenitisextremelystrangetoconstantlycomplainthat'the
WestistryingtocontainRussia,'"thepapersays."Eveninordinarylife,ifsomeone
violatestheacceptedsocialorder,peopletrytosomehowstophim."
Moreover,"ifyouconsidersovereigntythestrengthofbordersandstatepower,then
thecurrentpolicyofisolationandconfrontationismaking[Russia]weakerandthus
strategicallyweakening[its]sovereignty."Cooperationcanbethebasisforstrengthening
both,somethingthatinwordsatleast,Putinbelievesis"thehighestvalue."
RussianshaveheldontotheByzantinetraditioneventhoughtheyhavepassed
through"ataminimum"fourdifferentstates-theMoscowprincipality,theRussianEmpire,
theUSSRand"nowpost-SovietRussia."Theydonotappeartohavereflectedonwhat
thatmeansoronthefactthat"Byzantiumisnotthemostsuccessful"ofmodels.
"Intheend,"theeditorssay,"inlargemeasurethankstoits'Byzantinepolicy,'itlost
sovereignty"anditscapitalbecameacityinTurkey.Andthathappened,theycontinue,
becausetheByzantinerulersremainedtoosuspiciousofthetradersandmerchantswho
couldhavebuiltupanddefendedthestate.
ManyByzantinesurvivalsattractvisitors-theicons,thechurches,andthe
pompousceremonies-butnoneofthemoffersanyguarantees.WhenPutinsatonwhat
hethoughtwastheByzantinethrone,heforgotthatin2012ViktorYanukovichhaddonethe
same-andnowUkraineisfighting"arealwarforthepreservationofitssovereigntyinthe
mostliteralsense."
[returntoContents]
#21
VineyardoftheSaker
http://thesaker.is
June1,2016
ARussianwarning
EugeniaVGurevich,PhD
http://thesaker.ru/
DmitriOrlov
http://cluborlov.blogspot.com
TheSaker(A.Raevsky)
http://thesaker.is
We,theundersigned,areRussianslivingandworkingintheUSA.Wehavebeenwatching
withincreasinganxietyasthecurrentUSandNATOpolicieshavesetusonanextremely
dangerouscollisioncoursewiththeRussianFederation,aswellaswithChina.Many
respected,patrioticAmericans,suchasPaulCraigRoberts,StephenCohen,PhilipGiraldi,
RayMcGovernandmanyothershavebeenissuingwarningsofaloomingaThirdWorld
War.Buttheirvoiceshavebeenallbutlostamongthedinofamassmediathatisfullof
deceptiveandinaccuratestoriesthatcharacterizetheRussianeconomyasbeingin
shamblesandtheRussianmilitaryasweak-allbasedonnoevidence.Butwe-knowingboth
RussianhistoryandthecurrentstateofRussiansocietyandtheRussianmilitary,cannot
swallowtheselies.Wenowfeelthatitisourduty,asRussianslivingintheUS,towarnthe
Americanpeoplethattheyarebeingliedto,andtotellthemthetruth.Andthetruthissimply
this:
IfthereisgoingtobeawarwithRussia,thentheUnitedStateswillmostcertainlybe
destroyed,andmostofuswillendupdead.
Letustakeastepbackandputwhatishappeninginahistoricalcontext.Russiahas
sufferedagreatdealatthehandsofforeigninvaders,losing22millionpeopleinWorldWar
II.Mostofthedeadwerecivilians,becausethecountrywasinvaded,andtheRussians
havevowedtoneverletsuchadisasterhappenagain.EachtimeRussiahadbeen
invaded,sheemergedvictorious.In1812NapoleoninvadedRussiain1814Russian
cavalryrodeintoParis.OnJune22,1941,Hitler'sLuftwaffebombedKievOnMay8,1945,
SoviettroopsrolledintoBerlin.
Buttimeshavechangedsincethen.IfHitlerweretoattackRussiatoday,hewouldbedead
20to30minuteslater,hisbunkerreducedtoglowingrubblebyastrikefromaKalibr
supersoniccruisemissilelaunchedfromasmallRussiannavyshipsomewhereinthe
BalticSea.TheoperationalabilitiesofthenewRussianmilitaryhavebeenmost
persuasivelydemonstratedduringtherecentactionagainstISIS,AlNusraandother
foreign-fundedterroristgroupsoperatinginSyria.AlongtimeagoRussiahadtorespondto
provocationsbyfightinglandbattlesonherownterritory,thenlaunchingacounter-invasion
butthisisnolongernecessary.Russia'snewweaponsmakeretaliationinstant,
undetectable,unstoppableandperfectlylethal.
Thus,iftomorrowawarweretobreakoutbetweentheUSandRussia,itisguaranteedthat
theUSwouldbeobliterated.Ataminimum,therewouldnolongerbeanelectricgrid,no
Internet,nooilandgaspipelines,nointerstatehighwaysystem,noairtransportationor
GPS-basednavigation.Financialcenterswouldlieinruins.Governmentateverylevel
wouldceasetofunction.USarmedforces,stationedallaroundtheglobe,wouldnolonger
beresupplied.Atamaximum,theentirelandmassoftheUSwouldbecoveredbyalayerof
radioactiveash.Wetellyouthisnottobealarmist,butbecause,basedoneverythingwe
know,weareourselvesalarmed.Ifattacked,Russiawillnotbackdownshewillretaliate,
andshewillutterlyannihilatetheUnitedStates.
TheUSleadershiphasdoneeverythingitcouldtopushthesituationtothebrinkofdisaster.
First,itsanti-RussianpolicieshaveconvincedtheRussianleadershipthatmaking
concessionsornegotiatingwiththeWestisfutile.IthasbecomeapparentthattheWest
willalwayssupportanyindividual,movementorgovernmentthatisanti-Russian,beittax-
cheatingRussianoligarchs,convictedUkrainianwarcriminals,Saudi-supportedWahhabi
terroristsinChechnyaorcathedral-desecratingpunksinMoscow.NowthatNATO,in
violationofitspreviouspromises,hasexpandedrightuptotheRussianborder,withUS
forcesdeployedintheBalticstates,withinartilleryrangeofSt.Petersburg,Russia's
second-largestcity,theRussianshavenowherelefttoretreat.Theywillnotattacknorwill
theybackdownorsurrender.TheRussianleadershipenjoysover80%ofpopularsupport
theremaining20%seemstofeelthatitisbeingtoosoftinopposingWestern
encroachment.ButRussiawillretaliate,andaprovocationorasimplemistakecould
triggerasequenceofeventsthatwillendwithmillionsofAmericansdeadandtheUSin
ruins.
UnlikemanyAmericans,whoseewarasanexciting,victoriousforeignadventure,the
Russianshateandfearwar.Buttheyarealsoreadyforit,andtheyhavebeenpreparingfor
warforseveralyearsnow.Theirpreparationshavebeenmosteffective.UnliketheUS,
whichsquandersuntoldbillionsondubiousoverpricedarmsprogramssuchastheF-35
jointtaskfighter,theRussiansareextremelystingywiththeirdefenserubles,gettingas
muchas10timesthebangforthebuckcomparedtothebloatedUSdefenseindustry.
WhileitistruethattheRussianeconomyhassufferedfromlowenergyprices,itisfarfrom
beinginshambles,andareturntogrowthisexpectedasearlyasnextyear.SenatorJohn
McCainoncecalledRussia"Agasstationmasqueradingasacountry."Well,helied.Yes,
Russiaistheworld'slargestoilproducerandsecond-largestoilexporter,butitisalso
world'slargestexporterofgrainandnuclearpowertechnology.Itisasadvancedand
sophisticatedasocietyastheUnitedStates.Russia'sarmedforces,bothconventionaland
nuclear,arenowreadytofight,andtheyaremorethanamatchfortheUSandNATO,
especiallyifawareruptsanywhereneartheRussianborder.
Butsuchafightwouldbesuicidalforallsides.Westronglybelievethataconventionalwar
inEuroperunsastrongchanceofturningnuclearveryrapidly,andthatanyUS/NATO
nuclearstrikeonRussianforcesorterritorywillautomaticallytriggeraretaliatoryRussian
nuclearstrikeonthecontinentalUS.Contrarytoirresponsiblestatementsmadebysome
Americanpropagandists,Americanantiballisticmissilesystemsareincapableofshielding
theAmericanpeoplefromaRussiannuclearstrike.Russiahasthemeanstostrikeat
targetsintheUSAwithlong-rangenuclearaswellasconventionalweapons.
ThesolereasonwhytheUSAandRussiahavefoundthemselvesonacollisioncourse,
insteadofdefusingtensionsandcooperatingonawiderangeofinternationalproblems,is
thestubbornrefusalbytheUSleadershiptoacceptRussiaasanequalpartner:
Washingtonisdeadsetonbeingthe"worldleader"andthe"indispensablenation,"evenas
itsinfluencesteadilydwindlesinthewakeofastringofforeignpolicyandmilitarydisasters
suchasIraq,Afghanistan,Libya,Syria,YemenandtheUkraine.ContinuedAmericanglobal
leadershipissomethingthatneitherRussia,norChina,normostoftheothercountriesare
willingtoaccept.ThisgradualbutapparentlossofpowerandinfluencehascausedtheUS
leadershiptobecomehystericalanditisbutasmallstepfromhystericaltosuicidal.
America'spoliticalleadersneedtobeplacedundersuicidewatch.
Firstandforemost,weareappealingtothecommandersoftheUSArmedForcestofollow
theexampleofAdmiralWilliamFallon,who,whenaskedaboutawarwithIran,reportedly
replied"notonmywatch."Weknowthatyouarenotsuicidal,andthatyoudonotwishto
dieforthesakeofout-of-touchimperialhubris.Ifpossible,pleasetellyourstaff,colleagues
and,especially,yourciviliansuperiorsthatawarwithRussiawillnothappenonyourwatch.
Attheveryleast,takethatpledgetoyourself,and,shouldthedayevercomewhenthe
suicidalorderisissued,simplyrefusetoexecuteitonthegroundsthatitiscriminal.
RememberthataccordingtotheNurembergTribunal"Toinitiateawarofaggression...is
notonlyaninternationalcrimeitisthesupremeinternationalcrimedifferingonlyfromother
warcrimesinthatitcontainswithinitselftheaccumulatedevilofthewhole."Since
Nuremberg,"Iwasjustfollowingorders"isnolongeravaliddefensepleasedon'tbewar
criminals.
WealsoappealtotheAmericanpeopletotakepeacefulbutforcefulactiontoopposeany
politicianorpartythatengagesinirresponsible,provocativeRussia-baiting,andthat
condonesandsupportsapolicyofneedlessconfrontationwithanuclearsuperpowerthat
iscapableofdestroyingtheUSinaboutanhour.Speakup,breakthroughthebarrierof
massmediapropaganda,andmakeyourfellowAmericansawareoftheimmensedanger
ofaconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheUS.
ThereisnoobjectivereasonwhyUSandRussiashouldconsidereachotheras
adversaries.Thecurrentconfrontationisentirelytheresultoftheextremistviewsofthe
neoconservativemovement,whosemembershaveinfiltratedtheUSFederalgovernment,
andwhoconsideranycountrythatrefusestoobeytheirdictatesasanenemytobe
crushed.Thankstotheirtirelessefforts,overamillioninnocentpeoplehavealreadydiedin
theformerYugoslavia,inAfghanistan,inIraq,Libya,Syria,Pakistan,theUkraine,Yemen,
Somaliaandinmanyothercountries-allbecauseoftheirmaniacalinsistencethattheUSA
mustbeaworldempire,notajustaregular,normalcountry,andthateverynationalleader
musteitherbowdownbeforeit,orbeoverthrown.InRussia,theirresistibleforcethatisthe
neoconmovementhasfinallyencounteredtheimmovableobject.Theymustbeforcedto
backdownbeforetheydestroyusall.
WeareabsolutelyandcategoricallycertainthatRussiawillneverattacktheUS,norany
EUmemberstate,thatRussiaisnotatallinterestedinrecreatingtheUSSR,andthatthere
isno"Russianthreat"or"Russianaggression."MuchofRussia'srecenteconomic
successhasalottodowiththesheddingofformerSovietdependencies,allowingherto
pursuea"Russiafirst"policy.ButwearejustascertainthatifRussiaisattacked,oreven
threatenedwithattack,shewillnotbackdown,andthattheRussianleadershipwillnot
"blink."Withgreatsadnessandaheavyhearttheywilldotheirsworndutyandunleasha
nuclearbarragefromwhichtheUnitedStateswillneverrecover.EveniftheentireRussian
leadershipiskilledinafirststrike,theso-called"DeadHand"(the"Perimetr"system)will
automaticallylaunchenoughnukestowipetheUSAoffthepoliticalmap.Wefeelthatitis
ourdutytodoallwecantopreventsuchacatastrophe.
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From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.

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Internet Notes 18 June 2016

Stanovaya on the Economic Forum and foreign business

Solovey on gestures to America

German foreign minister on NATO warmongering

Internet Notes 18 June 2016

Stanovaya on the Economic Forum and foreign business

Solovey on gestures to America

German foreign minister on NATO warmongering

Very interesting, both these pieces. Thanks a lot, Bob.

'Little Green Men'

'Little Green Men'

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