Trump 7

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.
edu>
Senttime: 05/05/201608:53:32AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:ElectionsPutin-style:"RussianInteriorministrybuys120portableFLAMETHROWERS,"themoscowtimes.com,5/5
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Thursday,May05,20168:53AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:ElectionsPutin-style:"RussianInteriorministrybuys120portableFLAMETHROWERS,"themoscowtimes.com,5/5
RussiasInteriorMinistryhavepurchased120Shmel[THERMOBARIC]portableflamethrowersused
bySoviettroopsinAfghanistanandbyRussiantroopsinChechnyaThemodelboughtsuggests
thattheweaponisdesignedforuseinurbanareasTheflamethrowerswerelikelypurchasedforthe
newlycreatedRussianNATIONALGUARD.
And:KremlinoperatesonitsmostdemoralizedpatienttheMEDIA,themoscotimes.com,5/5
And:Russianoppositionactivist[GarryKASPAROV]:TRUMPisPutinsbesthope,politico.eu,5/5
And:SergeiRODULGINarrivedinPalmira[Syria]asamemberofanofficial[Russian]delegation,
http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27717904.html
And:TheSpanishlistoftheRussianMAFIA,
8pagediscussionwithspecialists
And:PIONTKOVSKII:PutinisalreadygivingoffanodorofpoliticaldeathandtheJACKALSinhis
entouragesmellitperfectly,gordonua.com,5/411pagearticle
And:HowMikhailPROKHOROVattemptedtobecomeapoliticianandmediamagnate,meduza.io
[Russianedition],5/4OnthestruggleforcontroloverRBK(rosbalt,rbc.ru)
And:HackerssaytheybrokeintoemailandWhatsAPPaccountbelongingtoproKremlinTV
presenterDmitryKISELEV,meduza.io,4/30
And:Standard&Poors:Thedebtof[Russian]statecompaniescoulddrowntheRussian
government,http://www.rosbalt.ru/exussr/2016/05/1512175.html
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/02/201609:49:32AM
FW:"FivetakeawaysfromGermanAfD'SPARTYCONGRESS:Anti-Islam,PRO-PUTINandhighlyambitious:Germany'sAfDsetsitssightson
Subject:
MERKEL'sJOB,"politic.eu,5/2
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Monday,May02,20169:49AM
Subject:"FivetakeawaysfromGermanAfD'SPARTYCONGRESS:Anti-Islam,PRO-PUTINandhighlyambitious:Germany'sAfDsetsits
sightsonMERKEL'sJOB,"politic.eu,5/2
And:Lengthy(15page)reportdevotedtoTrumptopadvisorPaulMANAFORT:ThequietAmerican,
slate.com,4/2016
Manafortservedasakey,essentialadvisortoViktorYANYKOVYCHandtoRussianandUkrainian
oligarchswithlinkstoORGANIZEDCRIMEand(someofthem)withlinksalsotoVladimirPutin
TrumpandYanykovychhavesharedthesamePOLITICALBRAIN,anoperativenamedPaul
Manafort.WhywouldPaulManafortsoconsistentlydothebiddingofoligarchsloyaltoVladimir
Putin?
And:SWEDENwantsanswersfromRussiaafterLAVROVsTHREATS,uatoday.tv,5/2
And:HowfriendsofPutinandtheMoscowmayorcreatedanoilMOGUL,meduza.io,4/30
And:RussianbloggerorderedtopaynewschannelRUSSIATODAYhalfamillionrublesforsayingit
inventsnews,meduza.io,4/30
And:Schoolchildrenattackedby[Russian]nationalistprotestersinMoscow:Picketersaccusedof
dousingstudentsinammoniaanddisinfectantastheyarrivedatanawardsceremony[hostedbythe
humanrightsorganizationMemorial],theguardian.com,5/2
And:RussiansgivenFREELANDincountrysFarEast,themoscowtimes.com,5/2
From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/29/201606:22:55AM
To: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: WhyIsDonaldTrumpaPatsyforVladimirPutin?--NYMag
WhyIsDonaldTrumpaPatsyforVladimirPutin?
TheuniversalheadlinesummaryofDonaldTrumpspreparedforeign-policyspeechyesterdaywasthatitlackeddetails.
Trumpscampaignencouragedthisconclusionbyleakinginadvancethatitwouldcontainfewspecifics,andmedia
correctlyprimedtothinkofTrumpasanignorantblowhardcovereditassuch.Butthespeech,infact,containedan
importantandsomewhat-curiousidea:TheUnitedStatesshouldformacloserrelationship,evenanalliance,withRussia.
TogetthethrustofTrumpspoint,ithastobereadinfullcontext,whichhepresentedincounter-positionwithhispolicy
towardChina:
WedesiretolivepeacefullyandinfriendshipwithRussiaandChina.Wehaveseriousdifferenceswiththesetwo
nations,andmustregardthemwithopeneyes,butwearenotboundtobeadversaries.Weshouldseekcommon
groundbasedonsharedinterests.
Russia,forinstance,hasalsoseenthehorrorofIslamicterrorism.Ibelieveaneasingoftensions,andimproved
relationswithRussiafromapositionofstrengthonlyispossible,absolutelypossible.Commonsensesaysthiscycle,
thishorriblecycleofhostilitymustendandideallywillendsoon.Goodforbothcountries.
SomesaytheRussianswontbereasonable.Iintendtofindout.Ifwecantmakeadealundermyadministration,a
dealthatsgreatnotgood,greatforAmerica,butalsogoodforRussia,thenwewillquicklywalkfromthe
table.Itsassimpleasthat.Weregoingtofindout.
FixingourrelationswithChinaisanotherimportantstepandreallytowardcreatinganevenmoreprosperous
periodoftime.Chinarespectsstrengthandbylettingthemtakeadvantageofuseconomically,whichtheyaredoing
likeneverbefore,wehavelostalloftheirrespect.
WehaveamassivetradedeficitwithChina,adeficitthatwehavetofindawayquickly,andImeanquickly,to
balance.AstrongandsmartAmericaisanAmericathatwillfindabetterfriendinChina,betterthanwehaveright
now.LookatwhatChinaisdoingintheSouthChinaSea.Theyrenotsupposedtobedoingit.
Inthebroadthematicsense,TrumpistreatingRussiaandChinathesame:promisingvaguelytomakegreatdealswith
them.Aslightlycloserread,however,revealsthatheisproposingvirtuallyoppositepoliciestowardthem.Trumpidentifies
waysinwhichChinaisactingagainstAmericaninterests:byrunningatradesurpluswithus,andbyexpandingintothe
SouthChinaSea.TrumpproposestomendrelationswithChinabystandinguptothemandforcingthemtorespectus
asequals,aftertheyhavesuppliedunilateralconcessionstous.
HisdepictionofAmericanrelationswithRussiaiscompletelydifferent.TrumpdoesnotidentifyanyhostileRussian
behaviorthatmustchange.Thisistellingsince,havingsingledoutChinasmuscle-flexingintheSouthChinaSea,he
ignoresRussiasmuchmoreflagrantbullyingofitsneighbors,suchasUkraine,whoseterritoryithasgobbledup.Instead
heidentifiessharedinterestswithRussiaoppositiontoIslamicterrorismandproposestoendthishorriblecycle
ofhostility.DescribingAmerican-Russianrelationsasacycleofhostilityassignstheblametobothsides,ratherthanto
Putinsaggressiveness.
SoTrumpissignallingaclearturninAmericanpolicy,whichunderhisadministrationwouldrampuphostilitytoward
ChinaandwinddownhostilitytowardRussia.ThisisinkeepingwithTrumpslong-standingviewsonbothcountries(not
justChina,whichhehasmockedandtaunted,sometimesinpidgin,fromtheoutsetofhiscandidacy.)Trumphasdeep
affectionforRussiaanditscorrupt,misogynisticdictator.IthinkIwouldjustgetalongverywellwithVladimirPutin,
TrumpannouncedinJuly.LastDecember,afterPutinpraisedTrump,theRepublicanfront-runnerreturnedthefavor:Itis
alwaysagreathonortobesonicelycomplimentedbyamansohighlyrespectedwithinhisowncountryandbeyond.
Whenaskedabouthisembraceofadictatorwhohasmurderedjournalists,Trumprepliedlastyear,Itsneverbeen
proventhatheskilledanybody.So,youknow,youresupposedtobeinnocentuntilprovenguilty.
Commentslikethisaremerelythesuperficialmanifestationofadeepeningalliance.FranklinFoerhasalongand
fascinatingreportforSlateonPaulManafort,theTrumpcampaignmanager(andlong-standingconfidant)whohasalso
workedtounderminePutinsenemiesinUkraine.And,asMichaelCrowleydetailsinPoliticomagazine,RussiaToday,
theKremlinpropagandaorgan,routinelylionizesTrump.Bothstoriesdepictsidesofthesamephenomenon:Russias
campaigntocultivateinfluenceintheWestbycorruptingmembersoftheAmericanmediaandpoliticalEstablishment.
Tothedegreetheyhaveattackedhimonforeignpolicy,Trumpscriticsinbothpartieshavemostlyconfinedthemselvesto
thethemesthataredigestibleextensionsofhispersonalstyleheisignorant,inconsistent,temperamentallyunfittolead,
andadangertoblunderthecountryintowar.Allofthosechargesaretrue,yettheymanagetodenysomethingthat,ina
candidatewithoutsuchflamboyantdrawbacks,woulditselfbeacampaign-threateningscandal:TrumpisVladimirPutins
stooge.
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 04/28/201606:40:34AM
Subject: TrumponForeignPolicy
TrumponForeignPolicy
EditorsNote:RepublicanpresidentialcandidateDonaldTrumpdeliveredthefollowingspeechonforeignpolicy
ataneventhostedbytheNationalInterestonWednesday,April27.
Thankyoufortheopportunitytospeaktoyou,andthankyoutotheCenterfortheNationalInterestforhonoringmewith
thisinvitation.
Iwouldliketotalktodayabouthowtodevelopanewforeignpolicydirectionforourcountryonethatreplaces
randomnesswithpurpose,ideologywithstrategy,andchaoswithpeace.
ItistimetoshaketherustoffofAmericasforeignpolicy.It'stimetoinvitenewvoicesandnewvisionsintothefold.
ThedirectionIwilloutlinetodaywillalsoreturnustoatimelessprinciple.Myforeignpolicywillalwaysputtheinterestsof
theAmericanpeople,andAmericansecurity,aboveallelse.ThatwillbethefoundationofeverydecisionthatIwillmake.
AmericaFirstwillbethemajorandoverridingthemeofmyadministration.Buttochartourpathforward,wemustfirst
brieflylookback.
Wehavealottobeproudof.Inthe1940swesavedtheworld.TheGreatestGenerationbeatbacktheNazisandthe
JapaneseImperialists.Thenwesavedtheworldagain,thistimefromtotalitarianCommunism.TheColdWarlastedfor
decades,butwewon.DemocratsandRepublicansworkingtogethergotMr.GorbachevtoheedthewordsofPresident
Reaganwhenhesaid:teardownthiswall.Historywillnotforgetwhatwedid.
Unfortunately,aftertheColdWar,ourforeignpolicyveeredbadlyoffcourse.Wefailedtodevelopanewvisionforanew
time.Infact,astimewenton,ourforeignpolicybegantomakelessandlesssense.Logicwasreplacedwithfoolishness
andarrogance,andthisledtooneforeignpolicydisasterafteranother.WewentfrommistakesinIraqtoEgypttoLibya,
toPresidentObamaslineinthesandinSyria.Eachoftheseactionshavehelpedtothrowtheregionintochaos,andgave
ISISthespaceitneedstogrowandprosper.
ItallbeganwiththedangerousideathatwecouldmakeWesterndemocraciesoutofcountriesthathadnoexperienceor
interestinbecomingaWesterndemocracy.Wetoreupwhatinstitutionstheyhadandthenweresurprisedatwhatwe
unleashed.Civilwar,religiousfanaticismthousandsofAmericanlives,andmanytrillionsofdollars,werelostasaresult.
ThevacuumwascreatedthatISISwouldfill.Iran,too,wouldrushinandfillthevoid,muchtotheirunjustenrichment.
Ourforeignpolicyisacompleteandtotaldisaster.Novision,nopurpose,nodirection,nostrategy.
Today,Iwanttoidentifyfivemainweaknessesinourforeignpolicy.
First,OurResourcesAreOverextended
PresidentObamahasweakenedourmilitarybyweakeningoureconomy.Hescrippleduswithwastefulspending,
massivedebt,lowgrowth,ahugetradedeficitandopenborders.Ourmanufacturingtradedeficitwiththeworldisnow
approaching$1trillionayear.Wererebuildingothercountrieswhileweakeningourown.EndingthetheftofAmerican
jobswillgiveustheresourcesweneedtorebuildourmilitaryandregainourfinancialindependenceandstrength.Iamthe
onlypersonrunningforthePresidencywhounderstandsthisproblemandknowshowtofixit.
Secondly,ouralliesarenotpayingtheirfairshare.
Ouralliesmustcontributetowardthefinancial,politicalandhumancostsofourtremendoussecurityburden.Butmanyof
themaresimplynotdoingso.TheylookattheUnitedStatesasweakandforgivingandfeelnoobligationtohonortheir
agreementswithus.InNATO,forinstance,only4of28othermembercountries,besidesAmerica,arespendingthe
minimumrequired2percentofGDPondefense.
Wehavespenttrillionsofdollarsovertimeonplanes,missiles,ships,equipmentbuildingupourmilitarytoprovidea
strongdefenseforEuropeandAsia.Thecountrieswearedefendingmustpayforthecostofthisdefenseand,ifnot,the
U.S.mustbepreparedtoletthesecountriesdefendthemselves.Thewholeworldwillbesaferifouralliesdotheirpartto
supportourcommondefenseandsecurity.ATrumpadministrationwillleadafreeworldthatisproperlyarmedand
funded.
Thirdly,ourfriendsarebeginningtothinktheycantdependonus.
Wevehadapresidentwhodislikesourfriendsandbowstoourenemies.HenegotiatedadisastrousdealwithIran,and
thenwewatchedthemignoreitsterms,evenbeforetheinkwasdry.Irancannotbeallowedtohaveanuclearweapon
and,underaTrumpadministration,willneverbeallowedtohaveanuclearweapon.Allofthiswithoutevenmentioning
thehumiliationoftheUnitedStateswithIranstreatmentofourtencapturedsailors.
Innegotiation,youmustbewillingtowalk.TheIrandeal,likesomanyofourworstagreements,istheresultofnotbeing
willingtoleavethetable.Whentheothersideknowsyourenotgoingtowalk,itbecomesabsolutelyimpossibletowin.
Atthesametime,yourfriendsneedtoknowthatyouwillstickbytheagreementsthatyouhavewiththem.
PresidentObamaguttedourmissiledefenseprogram,thenabandonedourmissiledefenseplanswithPolandandthe
CzechRepublic.HesupportedtheousterofafriendlyregimeinEgyptthathadalongstandingpeacetreatywithIsrael
andthenhelpedbringtheMuslimBrotherhoodtopowerinitsplace.
Israel,ourgreatfriendandtheonetruedemocracyintheMiddleEast,hasbeensnubbedandcriticizedbyan
administrationthatlacksmoralclarity.Justafewdaysago,VicePresidentBidenagaincriticizedIsraelaforceforjustice
andpeaceforactingasanimpedimenttopeaceintheregion.PresidentObamahasnotbeenafriendtoIsrael.Hehas
treatedIranwithtenderloveandcareandmadeitagreatpowerintheMiddleEastallattheexpenseofIsrael,our
otheralliesintheregionand,critically,theUnitedStates.
Wevepickedfightswithouroldestfriends,andnowtheyrestartingtolookelsewhereforhelp.
Fourth,ourrivalsnolongerrespectus.
Infact,theyarejustasconfusedasourallies,butanevenbiggerproblemisthattheydonttakeusseriouslyanymore.
WhenPresidentObamalandedinCubaonAirForceOne,noleaderwastheretomeetorgreethimperhapsan
incidentwithoutprecedentinthelongandprestigioushistoryofAirForceOne.Then,amazingly,thesamethinghappened
inSaudiArabia--it'scallednorespect.DoyourememberwhenthePresidentmadealongandexpensivetripto
Copenhagen,DenmarktogettheOlympicsforourcountry,and,afterthisunprecedentedeffort,itwasannouncedthatthe
UnitedStatescameinfourthplace?Heshouldhaveknowntheresultbeforemakingsuchanembarrassingcommitment.
Thelistofhumiliationsgoesonandon.PresidentObamawatcheshelplesslyasNorthKoreaincreasesitsaggressionand
expandsevenfurtherwithitsnuclearreach.OurpresidenthasallowedChinatocontinueitseconomicassaulton
Americanjobsandwealth,refusingtoenforcetraderulesorapplytheleverageonChinanecessarytoreininNorth
Korea.HehasevenallowedChinatostealgovernmentsecretswithcyberattacksandengageinindustrialespionage
againsttheUnitedStatesanditscompanies.
Weveletourrivalsandchallengersthinktheycangetawaywithanything.IfPresidentObamasgoalhadbeentoweaken
America,hecouldnothavedoneabetterjob.
Finally,Americanolongerhasaclearunderstandingofourforeignpolicygoals.
SincetheendoftheColdWarandthebreak-upoftheSovietUnion,wevelackedacoherentforeignpolicy.Oneday
werebombingLibyaandgettingridofadictatortofosterdemocracyforcivilians,thenextdaywearewatchingthesame
civilianssufferwhilethatcountryfallsapart.
We'reahumanitariannation.ButthelegacyoftheObama-Clintoninterventionswillbeweakness,confusion,anddisarray.
WehavemadetheMiddleEastmoreunstableandchaoticthaneverbefore.WeleftChristianssubjecttointense
persecutionandevengenocide.OuractionsinIraq,LibyaandSyriahavehelpedunleashISIS.Andwereinawar
againstradicalIslam,butPresidentObamawontevennametheenemy!HillaryClintonalsorefusestosaythewords
radicalIslam,evenasshepushesforamassiveincreaseinrefugees.AfterSecretaryClintonsfailedinterventionin
Libya,IslamicterroristsinBenghazitookdownourconsulateandkilledourambassadorandthreebraveAmericans.
Then,insteadoftakingchargethatnight,HillaryClintondecidedtogohomeandsleep!Incredible.Clintonblamesitallon
avideo,anexcusethatwasatotallie.OurambassadorwasmurderedandourSecretaryofStatemisledthenationand
bytheway,shewasnotawaketotakethatcallat3o'clockinthemorning.AndnowISISismakingmillionsofdollarsa
weeksellingLibyanoil.
ThiswillchangewhenIampresident.
Toallourfriendsandallies,IsayAmericaisgoingtobestrongagain.Americaisgoingtobeareliablefriendandally
again.WeregoingtofinallyhaveacoherentforeignpolicybaseduponAmericaninterests,andthesharedinterestsofour
allies.Wearegettingoutofthenation-buildingbusiness,andinsteadfocusingoncreatingstabilityintheworld.Our
momentsofgreateststrengthcamewhenpoliticsendedatthewatersedge.Weneedanew,rationalAmericanforeign
policy,informedbythebestmindsandsupportedbybothparties,aswellasbyourcloseallies.Thisishowwewonthe
ColdWar,anditshowwewillwinournewandfuturestruggles.
First,weneedalong-termplantohaltthespreadandreachofradicalIslam.
ContainingthespreadofradicalIslammustbeamajorforeignpolicygoaloftheUnitedStates.Eventsmayrequirethe
useofmilitaryforce.Butitsalsoaphilosophicalstruggle,likeourlongstruggleintheColdWar.Inthisweregoingtobe
workingverycloselywithouralliesintheMuslimworld,allofwhichareatriskfromradicalIslamicviolence.
WeshouldworktogetherwithanynationintheregionthatisthreatenedbytheriseofradicalIslam.Butthishastobea
two-waystreettheymustalsobegoodtousandrememberusandallwearedoingforthem.Thestruggleagainst
radicalIslamalsotakesplaceinourhomeland.Therearescoresofrecentmigrantsinsideourborderschargedwith
terrorism.Foreverycaseknowntothepublic,therearedozensmore.Wemuststopimportingextremismthrough
senselessimmigrationpolicies.ApauseforreassessmentwillhelpustopreventthenextSanBernardinoorworseall
youhavetodoislookattheWorldTradeCenterandSeptember11.
AndthentheresISIS.Ihaveasimplemessageforthem.Theirdaysarenumbered.IwonttellthemwhereandIwont
tellthemhow.Wemustas,anation,bemoreunpredictable.Buttheyregoingtobegone.Andsoon.
Secondly,wehavetorebuildourmilitaryandoureconomy.
TheRussiansandChinesehaverapidlyexpandedtheirmilitarycapability,butlookwhatshappenedtous!Ournuclear
weaponsarsenalourultimatedeterrenthasbeenallowedtoatrophyandisdesperatelyinneedofmodernizationand
renewal.Ouractivedutyarmedforceshaveshrunkfrom2millionin1991toabout1.3milliontoday.TheNavyhas
shrunkfromover500shipsto272shipsduringthattime.TheAirForceisaboutone-thirdsmallerthan1991.Pilotsare
flyingB-52sincombatmissionstodaywhichareolderthanmostpeopleinthisroom.
Andwhatarewedoingaboutthis?PresidentObamahasproposeda2017defensebudgetthat,inrealdollars,cuts
nearly25percentfromwhatwewerespendingin2011.Ourmilitaryisdepleted,andwereaskingourgeneralsand
militaryleaderstoworryaboutglobalwarming.Wewillspendwhatweneedtorebuildourmilitary.Itisthecheapest
investmentwecanmake.Wewilldevelop,buildandpurchasethebestequipmentknowntomankind.Ourmilitary
dominancemustbeunquestioned.
Butwewilllookforsavingsandspendourmoneywisely.Inthistimeofmountingdebt,notonedollarcanbewasted.We
arealsogoingtohavetochangeourtrade,immigrationandeconomicpoliciestomakeoureconomystrongagainand
toputAmericansfirstagain.Thiswillensurethatourownworkers,righthereinAmerica,getthejobsandhigherpaythat
willgrowourtaxrevenueandincreaseoureconomicmightasanation.Weneedtothinksmarteraboutareaswhereour
technologicalsuperioritygivesusanedge.Thisincludes3-Dprinting,artificialintelligenceandcyberwarfare.
Agreatcountryalsotakescareofitswarriors.Ourcommitmenttothemisabsolute.ATrumpadministrationwillgiveour
servicemenandwomenthebestequipmentandsupportintheworldwhentheyserve,andthebestcareintheworld
whentheyreturnasveteranstocivilianlife.
Finally,wemustdevelopaforeignpolicybasedonAmericaninterests.
Businessesdonotsucceedwhentheylosesightoftheircoreinterestsandneitherdocountries.
Lookatwhathappenedinthe1990s.OurembassiesinKenyaandTanzaniawereattackedandseventeenbravesailors
werekilledontheUSSCole.Andwhatdidwedo?ItseemedweputmoreeffortintoaddingChinatotheWorldTrade
OrganizationwhichhasbeenadisasterfortheUnitedStatesthanintostoppingAlQaeda.Weevenhadan
opportunitytotakeoutOsamaBinLaden,anddidntdoit.Andthen,wegothitattheWorldTradeCenterandthe
Pentagon,theworstattackonourcountryinitshistory.
OurforeignpolicygoalsmustbebasedonAmericascorenationalsecurityinterests,andthefollowingwillbemy
priorities.IntheMiddleEast,ourgoalsmustbetodefeatterroristsandpromoteregionalstability,notradicalchange.We
needtobeclear-sightedaboutthegroupsthatwillneverbeanythingotherthanenemies.Andwemustonlybegenerous
tothosethatprovetheyareourfriends.
WedesiretolivepeacefullyandinfriendshipwithRussiaandChina.Wehaveseriousdifferenceswiththesetwonations,
andmustregardthemwithopeneyes.Butwearenotboundtobeadversaries.Weshouldseekcommongroundbased
onsharedinterests.Russia,forinstance,hasalsoseenthehorrorofIslamicterrorism.
IbelieveaneasingoftensionsandimprovedrelationswithRussiafromapositionofstrengthispossible.Common
sensesaysthiscycleofhostilitymustend.SomesaytheRussianswontbereasonable.Iintendtofindout.Ifwecant
makeagooddealforAmerica,thenwewillquicklywalkfromthetable.
FixingourrelationswithChinaisanotherimportantsteptowardsaprosperouscentury.Chinarespectsstrength,andby
lettingthemtakeadvantageofuseconomically,wehavelostalloftheirrespect.Wehaveamassivetradedeficitwith
China,adeficitwemustfindaway,quickly,tobalance.AstrongandsmartAmericaisanAmericathatwillfindabetter
friendinChina.Wecanbothbenefitorwecanbothgoourseparateways.
AfterIamelectedpresident,IwillalsocallforasummitwithourNATOallies,andaseparatesummitwithourAsian
allies.Inthesesummits,wewillnotonlydiscussarebalancingoffinancialcommitments,buttakeafreshlookathowwe
canadoptnewstrategiesfortacklingourcommonchallenges.Forinstance,wewilldiscusshowwecanupgradeNATOs
outdatedmissionandstructuregrownoutoftheColdWartoconfrontoursharedchallenges,includingmigrationand
Islamicterrorism.
Iwillnothesitatetodeploymilitaryforcewhenthereisnoalternative.ButifAmericafights,itmustfighttowin.Iwillnever
sendourfinestintobattleunlessnecessaryandwillonlydosoifwehaveaplanforvictory.Ourgoalispeaceand
prosperity,notwaranddestruction.Thebestwaytoachievethosegoalsisthroughadisciplined,deliberateandconsistent
foreignpolicy.
WithPresidentObamaandSecretaryClintonwevehadtheexactopposite:areckless,rudderlessandaimlessforeign
policyonethathasblazedapathofdestructioninitswake.Afterlosingthousandsoflivesandspendingtrillionsof
dollars,weareinfarworseshapenowintheMiddleEastthaneverbefore.Ichallengeanyonetoexplainthestrategic
foreignpolicyvisionofObama-Clintonithasbeenacompleteandtotaldisaster.Iwillalsobepreparedtodeploy
Americaseconomicresources.Financialleverageandsanctionscanbeverypersuasivebutweneedtousethem
selectivelyandwithdetermination.Ourpowerwillbeusedifothersdonotplaybytherules.Ourfriendsandenemies
mustknowthatifIdrawalineinthesand,Iwillenforceit.However,unlikeothercandidatesforthepresidency,warand
aggressionwillnotbemyfirstinstinct.Youcannothaveaforeignpolicywithoutdiplomacy.Asuperpowerunderstands
thatcautionandrestraintaresignsofstrength.
Althoughnotingovernmentservice,IwastotallyagainstthewarinIraq,sayingformanyyearsthatitwoulddestabilize
theMiddleEast.Sadly,Iwascorrect,andthebiggestbeneficiarywasIran,whoissystematicallytakingoverIraqand
gainingaccesstotheirrichoilreservessomethingithaswantedtodofordecades.Andnow,totopitalloff,wehave
ISIS.
Mygoalistoestablishaforeignpolicythatwillendureforseveralgenerations.ThatiswhyIwillalsolookfortalented
expertswithnewapproaches,andpracticalideas,ratherthansurroundingmyselfwiththosewhohaveperfectresumes
butverylittletobragaboutexceptresponsibilityforalonghistoryoffailedpoliciesandcontinuedlossesatwar.
Finally,IwillworkwithouralliestoreinvigorateWesternvaluesandinstitutions.Insteadoftryingtospreaduniversal
valuesthatnoteveryoneshares,weshouldunderstandthatstrengtheningandpromotingWesterncivilizationandits
accomplishmentswilldomoretoinspirepositivereformsaroundtheworldthanmilitaryinterventions.
Thesearemygoals,aspresident.
IwillseekaforeignpolicythatallAmericans,whatevertheirparty,cansupport,andwhichourfriendsandallieswill
respectandwelcome.Theworldmustknowthatwedonotgoabroadinsearchofenemies,thatwearealwayshappy
whenoldenemiesbecomefriends,andwhenoldfriendsbecomeallies.Toachievethesegoals,Americansmusthave
confidenceintheircountryanditsleadershipagain.ManyAmericansmustwonderwhyourpoliticiansseemmore
interestedindefendingthebordersofforeigncountriesthantheirown.Americansmustknowthatweareputtingthe
Americanpeoplefirstagain.Ontrade,onimmigration,onforeignpolicythejobs,incomesandsecurityoftheAmerican
workerwillalwaysbemyfirstpriority.Nocountryhaseverprosperedthatfailedtoputitsowninterestsfirst.Bothour
friendsandenemiesputtheircountriesaboveoursandwe,whilebeingfairtothem,mustdothesame.
Wewillnolongersurrenderthiscountry,oritspeople,tothefalsesongofglobalism.Thenation-stateremainsthetrue
foundationforhappinessandharmony.IamskepticalofinternationalunionsthattieusupandbringAmericadown,and
willneverenterAmericaintoanyagreementthatreducesourabilitytocontrolourownaffairs.NAFTA,asanexample,
hasbeenatotaldisasterfortheU.S.andhasemptiedourstatesofourmanufacturingandourjobs.Neveragain.Onlythe
reversewillhappen.Wewillkeepourjobsandbringinnewones.Theirwillbeconsequencesforcompaniesthatleave
theU.S.onlytoexploititlater.
UnderaTrumpadministration,noAmericancitizenwilleveragainfeelthattheirneedscomesecondtothecitizensof
foreigncountries.IwillviewtheworldthroughtheclearlensofAmericaninterests.IwillbeAmericasgreatestdefender
andmostloyalchampion.Wewillnotapologizeforbecomingsuccessfulagain,butwillinsteadembracetheunique
heritagethatmakesuswhoweare.
Theworldismostpeaceful,andmostprosperous,whenAmericaisstrongest.Americawillcontinuallyplaytheroleof
peacemaker.Wewillalwayshelptosavelivesand,indeed,humanityitself.Buttoplaythatrole,wemustmakeAmerica
strongagain.WemustmakeAmericarespectedagain.AndwemustmakeAmericagreatagain.Ifwedothat,perhaps
thiscenturycanbethemostpeacefulandprosperoustheworldhaseverknown.Thankyou.
DonaldJ.TrumpisaRepublicancandidateforpresident.Textsource:DonaldTrumpcampaignwebsite.
Image:Flickr/MichaelVadon.
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DonaldTrumpforeignpolicynationalsecurityNationalInterestPolitics
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 05/04/201608:44:53AM
Subject: FW:BrianWHITMORE,"PUTINFELLAS,"http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27713771.html
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Wednesday,May04,20168:45AM
Subject:BrianWHITMORE,"PUTINFELLAS,"http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27713771.html
AsdeputymayorofSt.Petersburginthe1990s,VladimirPutinspentalotoftimewithgangsters.He
collaboratedwiththeinfamousTambovandMalyshevorganizedcrimegroupstogaincontrolofSt.
Petersburgsgamblingindustry.Heusedhisofficetohelplaundermafiamoneyandtoarrangeforeign
travelforknownmobstersWhenhemovedtotheKremlin,Putinputhisoldmafiacontactstouseas
keytoolsofRussianstatecraft.
And:JamesKIRKCHICK,DonaldTRUMPsRussiaconnections:RealistswithMoscowtiesareliningup
behindtheRepublicanfrontrunner,politico.eu,4/27
And:IanTuttle,RussianPropagandamysteriouslystallsaHUMANRIGHTSBILLinCongress,
http://www.nationalreview.com/node/434849/print
OntheproKremlinactivitiesofCongressmanDanaROHRABACHER,RepublicanfromCalifornias48th
district.
And:POROSHENKOsignslawextendingINDEFINITELYmoratoriumonRussiandebtrepayment,
unian.info,5/4
And:RussiatoonlyallowSAVCHENKOdealifprisonsentenceupheld,themoscowtimes.com,5/4
And:RussiandefensespecialistIgorSUTYAGIN(whonowlivesinBritain)ontheexceptionally
dangerousstuntsofRussianhooliganfighterpilots:
And:Fontanka.ruonSpainsarrestwarrantsaimedattheRussianMAFIA:Spainhasreturned
BanditsPetersburghome,http://www.fontanka.ru/2016/05/04/150/print.html
And:PutinhasSECRETLYawardedtwoofShoigusdeputiestheHEROofRUSSIAmedalforthe
operationinSyria,http://www.newsru.com/rusia/04may2016/heroes_print.html
And:NewLEVADACenterpollTheprotestmoodandthedesiretoholdmeetingshasdeclinedamong
Russianssincethispastwinter:http://www.newsru.com/russia/04may2016/opros_print.html
And:OnhowPutinitepatrioticthugsarecleansingSiberiaofthosewhoopposethesloganCrimeais
ours!:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/society/72948.html?print=1

From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 04/28/201607:45:20PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:DonaldTrumpsforeignpolicyspeechwasanincoherentmess.
Largelyagree.
SentfrommyiPhone
OnApr29,2016,at2:00AM,Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/war_stories/2016/04/donald_trump_s_foreign_policy_speech_was_an_incoherent_mess.html
AMessofContradictions
DonaldTrumpdeliversaforeignpolicyspeechWednesdayattheMayflowerHotelinWashington,D.C.
ChipSomodevilla/GettyImages
Ididntthinkitpossible,butDonaldTrumpsmajorforeignpolicyaddressonWednesdayawrittenspeech,whichhereadoffa
teleprompterwasevenmoreincoherentthanhisimprompturamblingsofthepastseveralmonths.Infact,itmaystandasthemost
senseless,self-contradictingforeignpolicyspeechbyanymajorpartyspresidentialnomineeinmodernhistory.
Forexample,hesaidthat,becauseofPresidentObamaspolicies,ourfriendsand
alliesfeeltheycannolongerdependonusthensaidthataTrumpadministration
wouldquitNATOandabandonouralliesinAsiaentirelyunlesstheystartedspending
moreondefense.
FredKaplan HesaidthathisNo.1national-securitygoalwouldbetodefeatISISthensaidthat
hewouldworkwithothernationstodosoonlyiftheyappreciatewhatwevedone
forthem,becauseforustobegoodtothem,theyalsohavetobegoodtous.(Theressomethingchildish,evennarcissistic,aboutthis
demand,whichherecitedinthetoneofadesperatelyfirmparent.)
Hesaid,ashehasmanytimes,thatourtradedeficithasseverelyweakenedAmericaandstrengthenedChinathensaidthatwehave
enormouseconomicleverageoverChinaandthatweshoulduseittogetChinatoreininNorthKorea.
HesaidweshouldnothelpanycountrythatisntourfriendthenproposedeasingtensionswithRussia.(Itspossibletoholdoneviewor
theother,butnotboth.)
HesaidhewouldstrengthenAmericaseconomyinordertoshrinkthedeficitthensaidhewouldusetheextrawealthtoboostjobs,then
saidhewoulduseittoincreasethemilitarybudget,withouttheslightestrecognitionofpossibletrade-offsortheneedtosetpriorities.
Thentherearethestatements,manyofthemreprisedfromdebatesandcampaignspeeches,thataresimplyuntrue.HeclaimedthatIranhas
violatedthenuclearagreement,wheninfactitsabidedbytheterms.Headdedthat,becauseofthedeal,Iranhasbecomeagreat,great
powerwhichmustcomeasnewstoIransleaders,whoarefrustratedthat,despitetheliftingofsanctions,theystillcantgetmuchtrade
goingwiththeWest.HesaidObamahassnubbedIsrael,wheninfactmanyIsraelimilitaryandintelligenceofficerscreditObamawith
providingmoresecurityassistancethananyrecentpresident.
TrumpaddedthatObamahasletournucleararsenalatrophy,wheninfactthePentagonisspending$20billionayeartomaintainand
modernizeit.HesaidObamasproposeddefensebudgetfornextyear(which,bytheway,amountsto$608billion)is25percentsmaller
thanhisbudgetfor2011when,infact,itslarger.Hesaidthat,since1991,theactive-dutyU.S.Armyhasshrunkfrom2milliontroopsto
1.3million,thattheAirForceisone-thirdsmaller,andthattheNavysforceofshipshasdeclinedfrom500to272whichmaysound
alarming,untilyouconsider(whichTrumphasnt)thattheColdWarendedin1991:Itwouldbestrangeifthemilitaryhadntshrunksince
then.
Andtherewerethebombasticpronouncementswithnobasiswhatsoever.Theworldismoredangerousthanithaseverbeen.(Think
aboutthatclaimforoneminute,andyoullseehowabsurditis.)AboutISIS,hesaid,TheyregoingtobegoneifImelectedpresident,
andtheyllbegonevery,veryquickly.(Whatdoesthismean?Ishegoingtoscowlatthem?Nukethem?)Nooneknowshowtoreduce
debt,butIdo.(Onewayhereduceddebtintheprivatesectorwastobuydebt-riddencompanies,thenabandonthecreditorsoroffer
themdimesonthedollarornothing.Internationaldebtdoesntworkthisway.)Healsosaid,ashehasbefore,thatheopposedtheIraqwar
becauseitwoulddestabilizetheMiddleEastwhen,infact,hesupportedtheinvasionnotlongbeforeittookplace.
Finally,helentcredencetothesuspicionthathesneverreadahistorybook.Inwhatacynicmightinterpretasanactofspeechwriters
sabotage,heembracedthetagAmericaFirst,goingsofarastosayitwillbetheoverridingthemeofhisforeignpolicy.Hedoesntseem
torealizethatthiswasthesloganofCharlesLindberghinhis1940campaignagainstPresidentFranklinD.Roosevelttoremainneutral
andisolationistduringWorldWarII.IsLindberghTrumpswittingrolemodel?
Thiswas,Irepeat,apreparedspeech,notsomeramblingremarksbyacandidateinoverhishead.Idontknowwhowroteit,butitseems
toconfirmrumorsthatnoprominentRepublicannational-securityadvisersareassistingTrumpscampaign.Clearlythisisthespeechofan
unseriousmanwhohasntreadupontheissuesorthoughtthroughhisowninstincts.Thedangerousthingisnotsomuchthatheknows
nothingaboutforeignpolicyitsthathedoesntknowjusthowmuchhedoesntknow.
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 04/27/201602:10:18PM
Subject: DUGIN'SGUIDELINE-TrumpandClintonthebattlewillbebloody|Katehonthinktank.Geopolitics&Tradition
DUGIN'SGUIDELINE-TrumpandClintonthebattlewillbebloody
Hello!YouarewatchingDugin'sguideline.IfeelIhavegoodnewsaboutAmericaandtheAmericanprimaries.Nowwe
arecertainthatourheroDonaldTrumpandbloodyHilarywillbefightinginthefinaltouroftheUSelections.That'sgreat!
Iamgoingtoexplainwhy.
Withthesetwocandidateswecanbesuretohaveallthatwewantinthenearfuture.Bothofthemareexcellentchoices.
LetusimaginetheUSaftertheelections.Wehavebuttwopossibilities:nomore,orHilaryorTrump.Inbothinstances,
wewillwinandhumanitycanbehappy.
LetsimagineHilarywins.SheisnotObamasheismuchworsethanObama.Behindheraremadneoconsthatwilldo
anythingtoprolongtheagonyofAmericanimperialism.TheywillreinforcethebloodychaosintheMiddleEast,andthey
willbeaggressiveandarrogant.Andeverybodywillrealizethattheyhavehadenough-enoughwiththeUSandits
hegemony,intervention,andmorbidfinancialsystem.Obamawasseenasachanceforchange.WithHilary,thereisnot
evenadistantimageofthis.ShewillbringtheAmericanCenturytoadecisiveend.Thefamousimperialoverstretchwill
definitivelydestroyAmericatheabrogationoftheSecondAmendmentwillclosethecase.
HilaryClintonmeanstheendofAmericanruleoftheworld.Shewillstubbornlypersistincontinuingthestrategyofliberal
imperialism,blamingothers,andexportingbloodychaosintheformofcolorrevolutions.ButthiswillburyAmericaasa
Stateanditspeople.Soatthismomentwehaveachance.ThefalloftheWestisachancefortherest.Itisourwindowof
opportunity.PatrickBuchananpertinentlyoncesaid:Americahasgainedtheworldbuthaslostherself.Thistime,Hilarys
Americaisgoingtolosetheworldandloseherselfaswell.Bytryingtoretainhegemonyandprolongtheunipolarworld
system,theUSwillfinallycollapsebecauseitissimplyimpossible.Thiswillbetheagonyaverydangerousandrisky
time.ButafterwardswewillbefinallyfreefromtheAmericans.Nicejob,Hilary!Wearereadyforyourapocalyptic
show.
ButwhatifDonaldTrumpwins?Whatshouldweexpect?Trump,Isuppose,willleavetheworldaloneandputaside
hegemonicclaims.Maybehewill-atleasttemporarily-losetheworld,buthewillsaveAmerica.Judgingbyhis
declarations,Trumpisgoingtoreturntothepre-Wilsonianera,totheMonroedoctrine.Hewillconcentrateondomestic
affairs,savingresourcesforsolvinginnereconomicalandsocialproblems.Andtheyreallyarehuge.Heisgoingtofight
therealenemythatisinsideAmerica,notanimaginableonewhoisoutside.ThisenemyisthemodernAmericanpolitical
andfinancialWallStreetelitethathashijackedAmerica,whichhasdeprivedtheAmericanpeopleofitscountry.Thatis
whytodaysomeRepublicans-primarilyneocons-supportHilaryandnotTrump.Theyfeeltheirendisapproaching.So
ifTrumpwins,Americawillbesaved,notasanimperialisthegemony,butasanationalcountry.AmericanAmerica.
DonaldTrumpsAmericacanbeafriend,anallyor,atleastanindifferentpowerthatconcentratesonitselfandmindsits
ownbusiness.
Sowecansitbackandenjoytheshow.Bothcandidatesaregoodforus-fortheworld,forhumanity.Hilarywilldestroy
America,Trumpwillsaveher.ButtheAmericancenturyismanifestlyincleardecline.Theendisnigh.Andthatisa
refreshingthought.
Bestwishes,youhavebeenwatchingDuginsguideline.Somethingisgoingtohappen.Somethingisgoingtochange.So
goahead.Inbothofthemwetrust.
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 05/01/201612:20:57PM
FW:[ACASEOF"VLAD-O-RAMAMEETSDON-O-RAMA"???]Russians'barrelroll'overanotherU.S.AirForceplanePutin'sBikersTrying
Subject:
toGetIntoPolandAgain"DonaldTrump'sforeignpolicyspeechearnspraiseinRussia"NickBurnsinACReviewsDT'sForeig

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Friday,April29,20167:24PM
Subject:[ACASEOF"VLAD-O-RAMAMEETSDON-O-RAMA"???]Russians'barrelroll'overanotherU.S.AirForceplanePutin'sBikers
TryingtoGetIntoPolandAgain"DonaldTrump'sforeignpolicyspeechearnspraiseinRussia"NickBurnsinACReviewsDT'sForeign...
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Apr29,2016at10:15PM
Subject:[ACASEOF"VLAD-O-RAMAMEETSDON-O-RAMA"???]Russians'barrelroll'overanotherU.S.AirForce
plane
Putin'sBikersTryingtoGetIntoPolandAgain"DonaldTrump'sforeignpolicyspeechearnspraiseinRussia"NickBurnsin
ACReviewsDT'sForeignPolicyAndFindsitWanting
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>
From:VRT
Subject:NotGood:Russians'barrelroll'overanotherU.S.AirForceplane
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/29/politics/russians-barrel-roll-air-force-plane/
Russians'barrelroll'overanotherU.S.AirForceplane

TheU.S.considersthisaveryunsafeaerialmaneuverandisexpectedtovoiceitsconcernstotheRussians
ThisisthesecondbarrelrollmaneuveroveraU.S.aircraftbytheRussiansthismonth
Washington(CNN)ARussianSU-27conducteda"barrelroll"FridayoverthetopofaU.S.AirForceRC-135which
wasflyingareconnaissancemissionininternationalairspaceabovetheBalticSea,theDefenseDepartmentsaid.
TheRussianSU-27approachedalongsidewithin25feetoftheU.S.aircraftandthenflewinvertedoverthetopof
theplanetotheotherside,Lt.Col.MichelleL.Baldanza,aU.S.Armyspokesperson,saidinastatement.
"TheSU-27interceptedtheU.S.aircraftflyingaroutinerouteathighrateofspeedfromthesidethenproceeded
toperformanaggressivemaneuverthatposedathreattothesafetyoftheU.S.aircrewintheRC-135,"Baldanza
said.
READ:WhatcanU.S.doaboutRussianjetsbuzzingmilitary?
TheU.S.considersthisaveryunsafeaerialmaneuverandisexpectedtovoiceitsconcernstotheRussians,a
U.S.defenseofficialtoldCNN.
ThisisthesecondbarrelrollmaneuveroveraU.S.aircraftbytheRussiansthismonth.
OnApril14,aRussianjet"performederraticandaggressivemaneuvers"asitflew
within50feetofaU.S.aircraft'swingtip,DannyHernandez,aspokesmanforU.S.
EuropeanCommand,saidinaresponsetoaquestionfromCNN.
READ:Russiadenieswrongdoingafterjetbarrelroll
Inthatincident,anRC-135aircraftalsowasinterceptedbyaRussianSU-27.The
RussianSU-27beganthebarrelrollfromtheleftsideoftheU.S.RC-135andwent
AU.S.AirForceRC-135 overthetopofittoendontherightsideoftheaircraft,U.S.EuropeanCommandsaid.
ThisalsocomesaftertwoencountersearlierthismonthintheBalticSeabetweenthe
NavymissiledestroyerUSSDonaldCookandtwoRussianjets.Inoneofthose
incidents,aRussianjetflewwithin75feetoftheship.
From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Subject:Editors'Picks:Putin'sAngels[ED.....TryingtoIntimidatePolandAgain]
To:waz2102@columbia.edu
Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.
EDITORS'

PICKS

Friday,April29

WelcometoEditors'Picks,FP'sround-upoftheday'sbest
articles.
Today,welookatRussia'sstate-sponsoredbikergang,

4 PUTIN'SANGELS:TheRussianbikergang,theNight

Wolves,wereblockedfromridingthroughPolandto
celebratetheSovietUnion'sWorldWarIIvictoryforthe
secondyearinarow,writesFP'sMeganAlpert:Read
more

Pro-Putin Biker Gang Still Cant Get

Into Poland [ED: Though they keep
trying]
CheckinlaterwhenFPcontributorMichaelMorananalyzeshow
WashingtonsetupPuertoRicotofail,andotherdeveloping
storiesfromaroundtheworld.
ForeignPolicyMagazine
editorspicks@foreignpolicy.com

From:hunter@
Subject:"DonaldTrump'sforeignpolicyspeechearnspraiseinRussia"[ED:HowareUkrainianssupposedto
react???]
http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/28/politics/donald-trump-russia-putin/
DonaldTrump'sforeignpolicyspeechearnspraise
inRussia
ByFredPleitgen,CNN
Storyhighlights Moscow(CNN)AfterDonald
Trumpgaveamuch-anticipated
SomeanalyststhinkTrumpwouldhaveagoodworkingrelationshipwithPutin
foreignpolicyspeechWednesday,
someofthemostglowingreviews
Butothersaren'tsosure
thathereceivedwerefroma
placethatdoesn'toftenseeeye-
to-eyewithAmericanpoliticians.
Trump'sspeechwasmorethanwell-receivedinRussia.InMoscow'sRedSquare,passersbyspeakingto
CNNpraisedtheNewYorktycoon.AndRussianpoliticiansfromPresidentVladimirPutinondownhave
beenquotedsayingfavorablethingsabouttheGOPpresidentialfront-runner.
PutinrecentlycalledTrump"abrighterperson,talentedwithoutadoubt."Trumpreturnedthecompliment
saying:"Ilikehimbecausehecalledmeagenius.HesaidTrumpistherealleader."
AndinhisaddressinWashingtonWednesday,thebillionairebusinessmanexpressedhopeaboutthepotential
forimprovementinAmerican-Russianrelations.
"IbelieveaneasingoftensionsandimprovedrelationswithRussia,fromapositionofstrengthonly,is
possible,"Trumpsaid,thoughheaddedthattheUnitedStatesshouldbewillingtowalkawayfromthe
negotiatingtableifRussiaistoodemanding.
ThemessageisonethatiswarmlyreceivedonthestreetsofMoscow.
"ThekeythingabouthimishiswillingnessforabreakthroughinrelationswithRussia,maybetheywon'tget
closerbutatleasttherewillbeadialogue,"saidonemansaidfeetawayfromtheKremlin.
Anotheradded,"Firstofall,TrumpisapositiveguyandhespokeaboutPutininagoodway.Hewants
positivechangesinAmerica."
ManybelievethatTrumpandPutinwouldgetalongwellonapersonallevelandthatalonecouldhelpease
tensionsbetweentheU.S.andRussia,whichhavebeenbuildingupoverthepastyears.
FyodorLukyanov,theheadoftheRussianCouncilonForeignandDefensePolicy,saidhebelievesVladimir
PutinwouldlikeTrump'sstyle.
"Helikespeoplewhoarefrank,openandwhodisregardpoliticalcorrectness.Andthatisexactlythecase
withMr.Trump,"LukyanovtoldCNN.
Butofcourseabromancebetweenpoliticalleadersisnotenoughtoimprovebilateralrelations.
TheU.SandRussiahavehadmassivedisagreementsoverUkraineinparticular,whereAmericaaccuses
Russiaoffunding,equippingandprovidingcombatsupporttoseparatistrebelsanddemandsthereturnof
Crimea,whichRussiaannexedin2014.
Russia,foritspart,wantssanctionsleviedagainstitbytheinternationalcommunitybecauseofitsmeddling
inUkraine'saffairstobecanceled.
WhenTrumpspokeaboutimprovingrelationswithRussiahedidn'tmentionUkraineorCrimea.Top-level
RussianpoliticianshavecalledTrumpthemost"pragmatic"ofthecandidatesfortheWhiteHouse.
"HeexpressesreadinesstocometotermswiththeRussianPresidentinsteadofmakingconflictswithus,the
waytoday'sadministrationisdoing,"AlexeyPushkov,headoftheforeignrelationscommitteeofRussian
parliamentsaid,accordingtotheTassnewsagency.
SowouldaTrumppresidencyreallymeanbetterrelationsbetweentheU.S.andRussia?
Lukyanovdoubtsit.
"Whoeverwillbepresident,theexpertisewillbemadebythesamepeople.Andtheconclusionispretty
gloomy,"hesaid."There'snowaytofindpeopleinsideAmerica'sintellectualcommunitywhoarereadyto
takeonamoresaysympatheticpositiontowardsRussia."
From:AtlanticCouncilPressOffice<press@atlanticcouncil.org>
Date:Fri,Apr29,2016at9:33AM
Subject:NewAtlanticist:DonaldTrump:A'Dangerous'Man[ED:TheAuthorisnotexactlyaSanders-Clinton
supporter....buttakesapartDT'sforeignpolicypositionplankbyplank.....particularlytalkofapotentialententewith
RU.......hmmm???]
To:waz2102@columbia.edu
Toviewthisemailasawebpage,gohere.
SUBSCRIBE April29,2016
NEWSMAKERINTERVIEW
DonaldTrump:A'Dangerous'
Man
AshishKumarSen/ @AshishSen
Inhisforeignpolicyaddress,Donald
Trumpputforthideasthatare"dangerous
toAmericaandwhathisspeechrevealed
tomeisthatheisadangerousleader,"R.
NicholasBurns,anAtlanticCouncilboard
directorwhoservedastheState
Department'snumberthreeofficialinthe
GeorgeW.Bushadministration,saidina
searingcritiqueoftheRepublican
presidentialfrontrunner'sApril27speech.
READMORE
SHARE

Copyright2016,AtlanticCouncil
Thisemailwassentby:AtlanticCouncil
Senttime: 04/28/201606:40:34AM
Subject: TrumponForeignPolicy
TrumponForeignPolicy
EditorsNote:RepublicanpresidentialcandidateDonaldTrumpdeliveredthefollowingspeechonforeignpolicy
ataneventhostedbytheNationalInterestonWednesday,April27.
Thankyoufortheopportunitytospeaktoyou,andthankyoutotheCenterfortheNationalInterestforhonoringmewith
thisinvitation.
Iwouldliketotalktodayabouthowtodevelopanewforeignpolicydirectionforourcountryonethatreplaces
randomnesswithpurpose,ideologywithstrategy,andchaoswithpeace.
ItistimetoshaketherustoffofAmericasforeignpolicy.It'stimetoinvitenewvoicesandnewvisionsintothefold.
ThedirectionIwilloutlinetodaywillalsoreturnustoatimelessprinciple.Myforeignpolicywillalwaysputtheinterestsof
theAmericanpeople,andAmericansecurity,aboveallelse.ThatwillbethefoundationofeverydecisionthatIwillmake.
AmericaFirstwillbethemajorandoverridingthemeofmyadministration.Buttochartourpathforward,wemustfirst
brieflylookback.
Wehavealottobeproudof.Inthe1940swesavedtheworld.TheGreatestGenerationbeatbacktheNazisandthe
JapaneseImperialists.Thenwesavedtheworldagain,thistimefromtotalitarianCommunism.TheColdWarlastedfor
decades,butwewon.DemocratsandRepublicansworkingtogethergotMr.GorbachevtoheedthewordsofPresident
Reaganwhenhesaid:teardownthiswall.Historywillnotforgetwhatwedid.
Unfortunately,aftertheColdWar,ourforeignpolicyveeredbadlyoffcourse.Wefailedtodevelopanewvisionforanew
time.Infact,astimewenton,ourforeignpolicybegantomakelessandlesssense.Logicwasreplacedwithfoolishness
andarrogance,andthisledtooneforeignpolicydisasterafteranother.WewentfrommistakesinIraqtoEgypttoLibya,
toPresidentObamaslineinthesandinSyria.Eachoftheseactionshavehelpedtothrowtheregionintochaos,andgave
ISISthespaceitneedstogrowandprosper.
ItallbeganwiththedangerousideathatwecouldmakeWesterndemocraciesoutofcountriesthathadnoexperienceor
interestinbecomingaWesterndemocracy.Wetoreupwhatinstitutionstheyhadandthenweresurprisedatwhatwe
unleashed.Civilwar,religiousfanaticismthousandsofAmericanlives,andmanytrillionsofdollars,werelostasaresult.
ThevacuumwascreatedthatISISwouldfill.Iran,too,wouldrushinandfillthevoid,muchtotheirunjustenrichment.
Ourforeignpolicyisacompleteandtotaldisaster.Novision,nopurpose,nodirection,nostrategy.
Today,Iwanttoidentifyfivemainweaknessesinourforeignpolicy.
First,OurResourcesAreOverextended
PresidentObamahasweakenedourmilitarybyweakeningoureconomy.Hescrippleduswithwastefulspending,
massivedebt,lowgrowth,ahugetradedeficitandopenborders.Ourmanufacturingtradedeficitwiththeworldisnow
approaching$1trillionayear.Wererebuildingothercountrieswhileweakeningourown.EndingthetheftofAmerican
jobswillgiveustheresourcesweneedtorebuildourmilitaryandregainourfinancialindependenceandstrength.Iamthe
onlypersonrunningforthePresidencywhounderstandsthisproblemandknowshowtofixit.
Secondly,ouralliesarenotpayingtheirfairshare.
Ouralliesmustcontributetowardthefinancial,politicalandhumancostsofourtremendoussecurityburden.Butmanyof
themaresimplynotdoingso.TheylookattheUnitedStatesasweakandforgivingandfeelnoobligationtohonortheir
agreementswithus.InNATO,forinstance,only4of28othermembercountries,besidesAmerica,arespendingthe
minimumrequired2percentofGDPondefense.
Wehavespenttrillionsofdollarsovertimeonplanes,missiles,ships,equipmentbuildingupourmilitarytoprovidea
strongdefenseforEuropeandAsia.Thecountrieswearedefendingmustpayforthecostofthisdefenseand,ifnot,the
U.S.mustbepreparedtoletthesecountriesdefendthemselves.Thewholeworldwillbesaferifouralliesdotheirpartto
supportourcommondefenseandsecurity.ATrumpadministrationwillleadafreeworldthatisproperlyarmedand
funded.
Thirdly,ourfriendsarebeginningtothinktheycantdependonus.
Wevehadapresidentwhodislikesourfriendsandbowstoourenemies.HenegotiatedadisastrousdealwithIran,and
thenwewatchedthemignoreitsterms,evenbeforetheinkwasdry.Irancannotbeallowedtohaveanuclearweapon
and,underaTrumpadministration,willneverbeallowedtohaveanuclearweapon.Allofthiswithoutevenmentioning
thehumiliationoftheUnitedStateswithIranstreatmentofourtencapturedsailors.
Innegotiation,youmustbewillingtowalk.TheIrandeal,likesomanyofourworstagreements,istheresultofnotbeing
willingtoleavethetable.Whentheothersideknowsyourenotgoingtowalk,itbecomesabsolutelyimpossibletowin.
Atthesametime,yourfriendsneedtoknowthatyouwillstickbytheagreementsthatyouhavewiththem.
PresidentObamaguttedourmissiledefenseprogram,thenabandonedourmissiledefenseplanswithPolandandthe
CzechRepublic.HesupportedtheousterofafriendlyregimeinEgyptthathadalongstandingpeacetreatywithIsrael
andthenhelpedbringtheMuslimBrotherhoodtopowerinitsplace.
Israel,ourgreatfriendandtheonetruedemocracyintheMiddleEast,hasbeensnubbedandcriticizedbyan
administrationthatlacksmoralclarity.Justafewdaysago,VicePresidentBidenagaincriticizedIsraelaforceforjustice
andpeaceforactingasanimpedimenttopeaceintheregion.PresidentObamahasnotbeenafriendtoIsrael.Hehas
treatedIranwithtenderloveandcareandmadeitagreatpowerintheMiddleEastallattheexpenseofIsrael,our
otheralliesintheregionand,critically,theUnitedStates.
Wevepickedfightswithouroldestfriends,andnowtheyrestartingtolookelsewhereforhelp.
Fourth,ourrivalsnolongerrespectus.
Infact,theyarejustasconfusedasourallies,butanevenbiggerproblemisthattheydonttakeusseriouslyanymore.
WhenPresidentObamalandedinCubaonAirForceOne,noleaderwastheretomeetorgreethimperhapsan
incidentwithoutprecedentinthelongandprestigioushistoryofAirForceOne.Then,amazingly,thesamethinghappened
inSaudiArabia--it'scallednorespect.DoyourememberwhenthePresidentmadealongandexpensivetripto
Copenhagen,DenmarktogettheOlympicsforourcountry,and,afterthisunprecedentedeffort,itwasannouncedthatthe
UnitedStatescameinfourthplace?Heshouldhaveknowntheresultbeforemakingsuchanembarrassingcommitment.
Thelistofhumiliationsgoesonandon.PresidentObamawatcheshelplesslyasNorthKoreaincreasesitsaggressionand
expandsevenfurtherwithitsnuclearreach.OurpresidenthasallowedChinatocontinueitseconomicassaulton
Americanjobsandwealth,refusingtoenforcetraderulesorapplytheleverageonChinanecessarytoreininNorth
Korea.HehasevenallowedChinatostealgovernmentsecretswithcyberattacksandengageinindustrialespionage
againsttheUnitedStatesanditscompanies.
Weveletourrivalsandchallengersthinktheycangetawaywithanything.IfPresidentObamasgoalhadbeentoweaken
America,hecouldnothavedoneabetterjob.
Finally,Americanolongerhasaclearunderstandingofourforeignpolicygoals.
SincetheendoftheColdWarandthebreak-upoftheSovietUnion,wevelackedacoherentforeignpolicy.Oneday
werebombingLibyaandgettingridofadictatortofosterdemocracyforcivilians,thenextdaywearewatchingthesame
civilianssufferwhilethatcountryfallsapart.
We'reahumanitariannation.ButthelegacyoftheObama-Clintoninterventionswillbeweakness,confusion,anddisarray.
WehavemadetheMiddleEastmoreunstableandchaoticthaneverbefore.WeleftChristianssubjecttointense
persecutionandevengenocide.OuractionsinIraq,LibyaandSyriahavehelpedunleashISIS.Andwereinawar
againstradicalIslam,butPresidentObamawontevennametheenemy!HillaryClintonalsorefusestosaythewords
radicalIslam,evenasshepushesforamassiveincreaseinrefugees.AfterSecretaryClintonsfailedinterventionin
Libya,IslamicterroristsinBenghazitookdownourconsulateandkilledourambassadorandthreebraveAmericans.
Then,insteadoftakingchargethatnight,HillaryClintondecidedtogohomeandsleep!Incredible.Clintonblamesitallon
avideo,anexcusethatwasatotallie.OurambassadorwasmurderedandourSecretaryofStatemisledthenationand
bytheway,shewasnotawaketotakethatcallat3o'clockinthemorning.AndnowISISismakingmillionsofdollarsa
weeksellingLibyanoil.
ThiswillchangewhenIampresident.
Toallourfriendsandallies,IsayAmericaisgoingtobestrongagain.Americaisgoingtobeareliablefriendandally
again.WeregoingtofinallyhaveacoherentforeignpolicybaseduponAmericaninterests,andthesharedinterestsofour
allies.Wearegettingoutofthenation-buildingbusiness,andinsteadfocusingoncreatingstabilityintheworld.Our
momentsofgreateststrengthcamewhenpoliticsendedatthewatersedge.Weneedanew,rationalAmericanforeign
policy,informedbythebestmindsandsupportedbybothparties,aswellasbyourcloseallies.Thisishowwewonthe
ColdWar,anditshowwewillwinournewandfuturestruggles.
First,weneedalong-termplantohaltthespreadandreachofradicalIslam.
ContainingthespreadofradicalIslammustbeamajorforeignpolicygoaloftheUnitedStates.Eventsmayrequirethe
useofmilitaryforce.Butitsalsoaphilosophicalstruggle,likeourlongstruggleintheColdWar.Inthisweregoingtobe
workingverycloselywithouralliesintheMuslimworld,allofwhichareatriskfromradicalIslamicviolence.
WeshouldworktogetherwithanynationintheregionthatisthreatenedbytheriseofradicalIslam.Butthishastobea
two-waystreettheymustalsobegoodtousandrememberusandallwearedoingforthem.Thestruggleagainst
radicalIslamalsotakesplaceinourhomeland.Therearescoresofrecentmigrantsinsideourborderschargedwith
terrorism.Foreverycaseknowntothepublic,therearedozensmore.Wemuststopimportingextremismthrough
senselessimmigrationpolicies.ApauseforreassessmentwillhelpustopreventthenextSanBernardinoorworseall
youhavetodoislookattheWorldTradeCenterandSeptember11.
AndthentheresISIS.Ihaveasimplemessageforthem.Theirdaysarenumbered.IwonttellthemwhereandIwont
tellthemhow.Wemustas,anation,bemoreunpredictable.Buttheyregoingtobegone.Andsoon.
Secondly,wehavetorebuildourmilitaryandoureconomy.
TheRussiansandChinesehaverapidlyexpandedtheirmilitarycapability,butlookwhatshappenedtous!Ournuclear
weaponsarsenalourultimatedeterrenthasbeenallowedtoatrophyandisdesperatelyinneedofmodernizationand
renewal.Ouractivedutyarmedforceshaveshrunkfrom2millionin1991toabout1.3milliontoday.TheNavyhas
shrunkfromover500shipsto272shipsduringthattime.TheAirForceisaboutone-thirdsmallerthan1991.Pilotsare
flyingB-52sincombatmissionstodaywhichareolderthanmostpeopleinthisroom.
Andwhatarewedoingaboutthis?PresidentObamahasproposeda2017defensebudgetthat,inrealdollars,cuts
nearly25percentfromwhatwewerespendingin2011.Ourmilitaryisdepleted,andwereaskingourgeneralsand
militaryleaderstoworryaboutglobalwarming.Wewillspendwhatweneedtorebuildourmilitary.Itisthecheapest
investmentwecanmake.Wewilldevelop,buildandpurchasethebestequipmentknowntomankind.Ourmilitary
dominancemustbeunquestioned.
Butwewilllookforsavingsandspendourmoneywisely.Inthistimeofmountingdebt,notonedollarcanbewasted.We
arealsogoingtohavetochangeourtrade,immigrationandeconomicpoliciestomakeoureconomystrongagainand
toputAmericansfirstagain.Thiswillensurethatourownworkers,righthereinAmerica,getthejobsandhigherpaythat
willgrowourtaxrevenueandincreaseoureconomicmightasanation.Weneedtothinksmarteraboutareaswhereour
technologicalsuperioritygivesusanedge.Thisincludes3-Dprinting,artificialintelligenceandcyberwarfare.
Agreatcountryalsotakescareofitswarriors.Ourcommitmenttothemisabsolute.ATrumpadministrationwillgiveour
servicemenandwomenthebestequipmentandsupportintheworldwhentheyserve,andthebestcareintheworld
whentheyreturnasveteranstocivilianlife.
Finally,wemustdevelopaforeignpolicybasedonAmericaninterests.
Businessesdonotsucceedwhentheylosesightoftheircoreinterestsandneitherdocountries.
Lookatwhathappenedinthe1990s.OurembassiesinKenyaandTanzaniawereattackedandseventeenbravesailors
werekilledontheUSSCole.Andwhatdidwedo?ItseemedweputmoreeffortintoaddingChinatotheWorldTrade
OrganizationwhichhasbeenadisasterfortheUnitedStatesthanintostoppingAlQaeda.Weevenhadan
opportunitytotakeoutOsamaBinLaden,anddidntdoit.Andthen,wegothitattheWorldTradeCenterandthe
Pentagon,theworstattackonourcountryinitshistory.
OurforeignpolicygoalsmustbebasedonAmericascorenationalsecurityinterests,andthefollowingwillbemy
priorities.IntheMiddleEast,ourgoalsmustbetodefeatterroristsandpromoteregionalstability,notradicalchange.We
needtobeclear-sightedaboutthegroupsthatwillneverbeanythingotherthanenemies.Andwemustonlybegenerous
tothosethatprovetheyareourfriends.
WedesiretolivepeacefullyandinfriendshipwithRussiaandChina.Wehaveseriousdifferenceswiththesetwonations,
andmustregardthemwithopeneyes.Butwearenotboundtobeadversaries.Weshouldseekcommongroundbased
onsharedinterests.Russia,forinstance,hasalsoseenthehorrorofIslamicterrorism.
IbelieveaneasingoftensionsandimprovedrelationswithRussiafromapositionofstrengthispossible.Common
sensesaysthiscycleofhostilitymustend.SomesaytheRussianswontbereasonable.Iintendtofindout.Ifwecant
makeagooddealforAmerica,thenwewillquicklywalkfromthetable.
FixingourrelationswithChinaisanotherimportantsteptowardsaprosperouscentury.Chinarespectsstrength,andby
lettingthemtakeadvantageofuseconomically,wehavelostalloftheirrespect.Wehaveamassivetradedeficitwith
China,adeficitwemustfindaway,quickly,tobalance.AstrongandsmartAmericaisanAmericathatwillfindabetter
friendinChina.Wecanbothbenefitorwecanbothgoourseparateways.
AfterIamelectedpresident,IwillalsocallforasummitwithourNATOallies,andaseparatesummitwithourAsian
allies.Inthesesummits,wewillnotonlydiscussarebalancingoffinancialcommitments,buttakeafreshlookathowwe
canadoptnewstrategiesfortacklingourcommonchallenges.Forinstance,wewilldiscusshowwecanupgradeNATOs
outdatedmissionandstructuregrownoutoftheColdWartoconfrontoursharedchallenges,includingmigrationand
Islamicterrorism.
Iwillnothesitatetodeploymilitaryforcewhenthereisnoalternative.ButifAmericafights,itmustfighttowin.Iwillnever
sendourfinestintobattleunlessnecessaryandwillonlydosoifwehaveaplanforvictory.Ourgoalispeaceand
prosperity,notwaranddestruction.Thebestwaytoachievethosegoalsisthroughadisciplined,deliberateandconsistent
foreignpolicy.
WithPresidentObamaandSecretaryClintonwevehadtheexactopposite:areckless,rudderlessandaimlessforeign
policyonethathasblazedapathofdestructioninitswake.Afterlosingthousandsoflivesandspendingtrillionsof
dollars,weareinfarworseshapenowintheMiddleEastthaneverbefore.Ichallengeanyonetoexplainthestrategic
foreignpolicyvisionofObama-Clintonithasbeenacompleteandtotaldisaster.Iwillalsobepreparedtodeploy
Americaseconomicresources.Financialleverageandsanctionscanbeverypersuasivebutweneedtousethem
selectivelyandwithdetermination.Ourpowerwillbeusedifothersdonotplaybytherules.Ourfriendsandenemies
mustknowthatifIdrawalineinthesand,Iwillenforceit.However,unlikeothercandidatesforthepresidency,warand
aggressionwillnotbemyfirstinstinct.Youcannothaveaforeignpolicywithoutdiplomacy.Asuperpowerunderstands
thatcautionandrestraintaresignsofstrength.
Althoughnotingovernmentservice,IwastotallyagainstthewarinIraq,sayingformanyyearsthatitwoulddestabilize
theMiddleEast.Sadly,Iwascorrect,andthebiggestbeneficiarywasIran,whoissystematicallytakingoverIraqand
gainingaccesstotheirrichoilreservessomethingithaswantedtodofordecades.Andnow,totopitalloff,wehave
ISIS.
Mygoalistoestablishaforeignpolicythatwillendureforseveralgenerations.ThatiswhyIwillalsolookfortalented
expertswithnewapproaches,andpracticalideas,ratherthansurroundingmyselfwiththosewhohaveperfectresumes
butverylittletobragaboutexceptresponsibilityforalonghistoryoffailedpoliciesandcontinuedlossesatwar.
Finally,IwillworkwithouralliestoreinvigorateWesternvaluesandinstitutions.Insteadoftryingtospreaduniversal
valuesthatnoteveryoneshares,weshouldunderstandthatstrengtheningandpromotingWesterncivilizationandits
accomplishmentswilldomoretoinspirepositivereformsaroundtheworldthanmilitaryinterventions.
Thesearemygoals,aspresident.
IwillseekaforeignpolicythatallAmericans,whatevertheirparty,cansupport,andwhichourfriendsandallieswill
respectandwelcome.Theworldmustknowthatwedonotgoabroadinsearchofenemies,thatwearealwayshappy
whenoldenemiesbecomefriends,andwhenoldfriendsbecomeallies.Toachievethesegoals,Americansmusthave
confidenceintheircountryanditsleadershipagain.ManyAmericansmustwonderwhyourpoliticiansseemmore
interestedindefendingthebordersofforeigncountriesthantheirown.Americansmustknowthatweareputtingthe
Americanpeoplefirstagain.Ontrade,onimmigration,onforeignpolicythejobs,incomesandsecurityoftheAmerican
workerwillalwaysbemyfirstpriority.Nocountryhaseverprosperedthatfailedtoputitsowninterestsfirst.Bothour
friendsandenemiesputtheircountriesaboveoursandwe,whilebeingfairtothem,mustdothesame.
Wewillnolongersurrenderthiscountry,oritspeople,tothefalsesongofglobalism.Thenation-stateremainsthetrue
foundationforhappinessandharmony.IamskepticalofinternationalunionsthattieusupandbringAmericadown,and
willneverenterAmericaintoanyagreementthatreducesourabilitytocontrolourownaffairs.NAFTA,asanexample,
hasbeenatotaldisasterfortheU.S.andhasemptiedourstatesofourmanufacturingandourjobs.Neveragain.Onlythe
reversewillhappen.Wewillkeepourjobsandbringinnewones.Theirwillbeconsequencesforcompaniesthatleave
theU.S.onlytoexploititlater.
UnderaTrumpadministration,noAmericancitizenwilleveragainfeelthattheirneedscomesecondtothecitizensof
foreigncountries.IwillviewtheworldthroughtheclearlensofAmericaninterests.IwillbeAmericasgreatestdefender
andmostloyalchampion.Wewillnotapologizeforbecomingsuccessfulagain,butwillinsteadembracetheunique
heritagethatmakesuswhoweare.
Theworldismostpeaceful,andmostprosperous,whenAmericaisstrongest.Americawillcontinuallyplaytheroleof
peacemaker.Wewillalwayshelptosavelivesand,indeed,humanityitself.Buttoplaythatrole,wemustmakeAmerica
strongagain.WemustmakeAmericarespectedagain.AndwemustmakeAmericagreatagain.Ifwedothat,perhaps
thiscenturycanbethemostpeacefulandprosperoustheworldhaseverknown.Thankyou.
DonaldJ.TrumpisaRepublicancandidateforpresident.Textsource:DonaldTrumpcampaignwebsite.
Image:Flickr/MichaelVadon.
Tags
DonaldTrumpforeignpolicynationalsecurityNationalInterestPolitics
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FW:INTHE"NOTFUNNYANYMORE"CATEGORY:PUTIN'SPLAYSINTHEUSPOLITICALARENA[RIGHT&LEFT][From
Subject:
MH/POLITICO....PAULRG......ANTO/FAM.....MB/BBC......CLIFFK][TIMEFORTHE'USHROMADA'TOADDRESSTHEISSUE]
Sent:Thursday,April28,20168:45AM
Subject:Fwd:INTHE"NOTFUNNYANYMORE"CATEGORY:PUTIN'SPLAYSINTHEUSPOLITICALARENA[RIGHT&LEFT][From
Date:Thu,Apr28,2016at11:43AM
Subject:INTHE"NOTFUNNYANYMORE"CATEGORY:PUTIN'SPLAYSINTHEUSPOLITICALARENA[RIGHT&
LEFT][FromMH/POLITICO....PAULRG......ANTO/FAM.....MB/BBC......CLIFFK][TIMEFORTHE'USHROMADA'
TOADDRESSTHEISSUE]
From:MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>
Subject:didyouseethis?
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/donald-trump-2016-russia-today-rt-kremlin-media-vladimir-putin-213833
THEKREMLIN'SCANDIDATE
BACKWHENHEHOSTEDAPRIME-TIMETALKSHOWONMSNBC,EdSchultzdividedtheworldintoheroes
andvillains.TheheroesusuallyincludedDemocratslikeBarackObamaandHillaryClinton.The
villainsweremostRepublicans,andespeciallyDonaldJ.Trump.WhenTrumpobsessedover
Obamasbirthcertificateandacademiccredentialsin2011,Schultzbrandedhimaracist.When
Trumpflirtedwithrunningforpresidentthenextyear,Schultzridiculedhim.Whohasshownany
interestinDonaldTrumpbeingthenextpresidentoftheUnitedStatesotherthanDonaldTrump?
hefumed.Mr.Trump,stopembarrassingyourself!
AnotherbadguywasRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.Schultzdelightedinrippingconservatives
forwhathecalledtheirloveaffairwiththeRussianleaderandhisabilitytomakeObamalook
weakontheworldstage.TheyhateObamasomuchtheywillevenembracetheheadoftheKGB
...Putieistheirnewhero!Schultzsaidinone2013segment.Inanother,hesmuglyreminded
conservativesaboutPutinsnastyhumanrightsrecordandthewayhisrecklessbehaviorwas
cripplingRussia.Moregenerally,SchultzoftenframedGOPoppositiontoObamaasanti-
Americanorunpatriotic.
ThatwasallbeforelastJuly,whenMSNBCabruptlycanceledTheEdShowafterasix-yearrun
anddumpedthe62-year-oldprairiepopulistfromthenetwork.BythetimeSchultzresurfacedthis
January,hehadbeenreincarnatedinaverydifferentjournalisticform:asaprime-timehost,
reporterandpoliticalanalystforRTAmerica,theU.S.branchoftheglobalcablenetworkformerly
knownasRussiaToday,fundedbytheRussiangovernment.
GoneisthepraiseforObamaandClinton.Gone,too,arethemockingreferencestoPutie.And
gonearethejudgmentsaboutotherspatriotism.Schultzs8p.m.RTshow,TheNewswithEd
Schultz,nowfeaturesPutin-friendlydiscussionsaboutthefailingsofU.S.policyintheMiddle
East,AmericasbloateddefensebudgetandthefutilityofNATOstrategy.
EvenTrumpisgettinganewlookfromSchultz.SpeakingatvariouspointsonRTinrecent
months,SchultzhassaidthatTrumphastappedintoanangeramongworkingpeople,istalking
aboutthingsthepeoplecareabout,andeven,asSchultzrecentlydeclared,thatTrumpwould
easilybeabletofunctionaspresident.
Thosearestrangewordscomingfromanex-MSNBCliberalbetterknownforcastingTrumpasa
racistlout.ButRTisastrangeplace.ItstylesitselfasanedgyCNNorBBC,delivering
unvarnishednewsandcommentarywithamostlyhip,youngcast.Butjustunderthesurfaceisa
bought-and-paid-forpropagandavehicletryingtonudgeviewerstowardRussiassideofthestory
atatimewhenMoscowhasincreasinglybecomeaninternationalpariah,estrangedfromtheWest
overitsmilitaryaggressioninUkraine,Syriaandelsewhere,itselitessanctionedanditseconomy
strugglingwithisolation,decayinginfrastructureandcollapsingenergyprices.
Initsearlydays,RTmostlyofferedaKremlin-friendlydietofinternationalcoverage,feedingthe
Obama-bashing,America-in-declinenarrativewithC-listcommentatorswhocouldntgetanairing
elsewhereoncableTV.ButthatwasbeforeDonaldTrumpwhoseunlikelymutualadmirationfor
RussiasstrongmanpresidenthasbeenoneofthestrangersubplotsofthisAmericanpolitical
season.
TheblusterybillionairehaspraisedPutinasastrongleader,spokenofclosertieswithMoscowandmused
aboutwhetherNATOisobsolete.AttheforeignpolicyspeechTrumpdeliveredinWashingtononApril27,
theRussianambassadortotheUnitedStateswassittinginthefrontrow.AsTrumphasrisen,RThasgotten
muchmoreinterestedintheU.S.presidentialcampaign.TuneintoEdSchultzandhiscolleaguesthesedays
andyoullfindapresidentialracefeaturingHillaryClintonasamalevolentwarmonger,BernieSandersasan
insurgentheroandDonaldTrumpasaforeignpolicysavant.
AnetworkthatupuntilnowhasfoundlittletocelebrateaboutAmericahasfinallysettledonacandidateit
canbelievein.VladimirPutinsTVchannelisntjustcoveringthe2016campaign:Increasingly,itschoosing
sides.
***
TheRussianpresidentsfacewasafaintshadeofgreenashegazedupatagiantimageofLarryKing.It
wasDecember10,andVladimirPutinwastheguestofhonoratRTs10thanniversarydinner,atMoscows
MetropolHotelintheshadowoftheKremlin.Putinwasntgreenfromfoodpoisoningthehuecamefrom
lightingthatbathedtheroominthelimeofthenetworkslogo.
KingwasopeningtheceremoniesbyvideomessagefromLosAngeles,wherethe82-year-old
nowhostsadiminishedversionofhisoldCNNtalkshowforRT,joiningarosterofhoststhat
includesotherpast-their-primeU.S.celebritieslikeSchultzandJessetheBodyVentura,the
formerwrestlingchamp-turnedMinnesotagovernorwhoalsohasashowonRT.Inhistrademark
shirtsleevesandsuspenders,KingapologizedforhisabsenceandletPutinknowhedloveto
interviewhim.TheRussianleaderlookedvisiblypleased.
SittingnexttoPutinwasRTs36-year-oldeditor-in-chief,MargaritaSimonyan,araven-haired
formerstatetelevisionreporterwhotookoverRTwhenshewas25.Sheisafeistydefenderofher
network,oftenlashingoutagainstcriticsandtherearemanywhosayRTislittlemorethana
weaponinaRussianinformationwaragainsttheWest.SecretaryofStateJohnKerrycallsthe
networkapropagandabullhornforPutinithasbeenasubjectatHouseandSenateforeign
affairshearingsand,inmid-March,twoU.S.senatorsintroducedtheCounteringInformation
WarfareAct,whichisaimedinpartatthenetwork.SimonyanalmostseemstoenjoybattlingRTs
legionsofcritics.WhenaBuzzFeedreporteraskedherin2014aboutallegedKremlininfluence,
Simonyanunleashedamockingreply.[W]ejustreadthelatestKremlinpressreleasesoncamera.
Itismuchmoreefficientthatway,shewroteonRTswebsite,addingsardonicallythatthenetwork
unleash[es]theKGBonanyonewhodarestoleave.Andyet,Simonyandoesinfactkeepa
yellowtelephonewithnodialpadonherdesk,whichSimonyanconcededtoaTimereporterlast
yearisasecurelinetotheKremlin.
Inhisremarksatthedinner,Putinshowedobviousprideinthenetwork,sayingitseffortsreminded
himofthewayhardworkingRussiansailorsteartheshirtsofftheirbacks.Hemostdecidedly
wasntmentioningthathotlinetotheKremlinonSimonyansdeskorKerrysscathingdismissalof
hisbullhorn.Farfromit.Yourgreateststrengthispresentinginformationfreelyand
independently,Putintoldthecrowd,whosippedwineintranslucentchairsaroundwhite-clothed
tables.Wedonotcontrolyou.andwedonotmeddle,Putinsaid.HealsoboastedthatRThas
areachof700millionviewers,thoughheconcededtheyhadnoideahowmanypeopleactually
watchU.S.officialssaytheAmericanviewershipismuchlowerthanRTsestimateof8millionper
weekoncablesystemslikeComcast,TimeWarnerandDishNetwork.(Theyarealsoskepticalof
RTsclaimtohaveabudgetofonly$250millionworldwide.InMarch,RepublicanSenatorRob
PortmancitedreportssayingthecostofthenetworksWashingtonbureaualonecouldbe$400
million,thoughRTadamantlydeniesthat,andtheoriginalsourceofthereportisunclear.)
PutindidhintatRTsroleinthepoliticalwarRussiafindsitselfwagingwiththeWest,referringto
thecomplicatedstateofglobalpoliticsanddistortionsofevents,includinginUkraineandSyria,
andsayingthatRTcandescribethetrueeventstoagrowingglobalaudienceyearningfor
unbiasedfacts.
ButPutinscommentsareatoddswithhowthenetworkoperatesinpractice,accordingto
interviewswithpeoplewhocloselywatchorhaveworkedatRT,andmyownhoursofmonitoring
thenetworkanditswebsite.OneformerRTstafferinWashingtontoldmethatsheleftherjob,
alongwithotherswhohavealsospokentothemedia,afterseeingthenetworksMoscow-based
editorsinstructjournaliststomaketheircoveragehewtotheMoscow-approvedpoliticalline.Such
concernseruptedintofullviewacoupleyearsagowhenRussiamarchedintoneighboringUkraine
toannextheCrimeanPeninsula,leadinga28-year-oldRTpresenternamedLizWahltoquiton-
air,declaring,IcannotbeapartofanetworkfundedbytheRussiangovernmentthat
whitewashestheactionsofPutin.
Justunderthesurfaceisabought-and-paid-forpropagandavehicletryingtonudge
viewerstowardRussiassideofthestoryatatimewhenMoscowhasincreasingly
becomeaninternationalpariah.

Today,itsclearRToperateslessasthefreeandindependentnewssourcePutintouted,and
moreasavehiclethatincreasinglyusestheavailabletoolsofthedigitalrevolutionfromviral
videos(AnimatedGenitals,LawnmowerExplodes)toentertaininglysnarkytweetstopromote
Russiasmessage.ItspositioningitselfasascrappydissentertotheoldWesternmedias
monopolyoninformation,athemeSimonyanemphasizedtomeinastatementforthisstory.
Americans,shesaid,watchRTforstories,viewsandanalysistheywontfindinthemainstream
media.AsforcriticismofRTscoverageoftheUnitedStatesandthe2016campaign,she
soundedapositivelyTrumpiantheme,sayingRTscriticsaremostlymembersoftheU.S.political
establishment,whoareuncomfortablewithlosingthelongtimemonopolyoninformation.
SeatednexttoSimonyanatthedinnerandjusttwoseatsawayfromPutinhimselfwasperhapsthe
mostintriguingexampleofhowtheRussianshavegoneaboutrecruitingdisaffectedmembersof
thatestablishment:arugged-lookingmaninatuxedowholessthan18monthsearlierhadbeen
headoftheDefenseIntelligenceAgency,thePentagonspowerfulin-houseequivalentoftheCIA.
MichaelFlynn,nowaprivatecitizenafterareportedlydisgruntledretirement,wasnotthereto
gatherintelligence.HisattendanceattheRTgala,beforewhichhealsogaveatalkonworld
affairs,appearedtoinauguratearelationshipwiththenetworkpresumablyapaidone,though
neitherFlynnnorRTansweredqueriesonthesubject.Flynnnowmakessemi-regular
appearancesonRTasananalyst,inwhichheoftenarguesthattheU.S.andRussiashouldbe
workingmorecloselytogetheronissueslikefightingISILandendingSyriascivilwar.Russiahas
itsownnationalsecuritystrategy,andwehavetorespectthat,hesaidinonerecentappearance.
Andwehavetotrytofigureout:HowdowecombinetheUnitedStatesnationalsecuritystrategy
alongwithRussiasnationalsecuritystrategy,despiteallthechallengesthatweface?
Atamomentofsemi-hostilitybetweentheU.S.andRussia,thepresenceofsuchanimportant
figureatPutinstablestartledcurrentandformermembersoftheObamaadministration.Itwas
extremelyoddthatheshowedupinatuxedototheRussiangovernmentpropagandaarmsparty,
oneformerPentagonofficialtoldme.
Readmore:http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/donald-trump-2016-russia-today-rt-kremlin-media-
vladimir-putin-213833#ixzz476128h00
Followus:@politicoonTwitter|PoliticoonFacebook
From:VRT
Subject:PLEASENOTE---OLDERBUTSTILLVALID:"PutinFavorsTrumporSandersforPresident.HeresWhy
ThatMatterstoYou"
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>
Putin Favors Trump or Sanders for President. Heres Why

That Matters to You
BLAZE
PaulGregory
PaulGregoryisaspecialistonRussia,theSovietUnionandUkraine.HeisaCullenDistinguishedProfessorattheUniversityof
HoustonaResearchFellow,attheHooverInstitutionatStanfordUniversity
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RTs(RussiaToday,theKremlinsmediaarmtotheoutsideworld)presscoverageoftheU.S.
presidentialprimarieshasbeenuniformlyfavorabletowardsBernieSandersandDonaldTrump,
whileHillaryClintonandMarcoRubiohavebeenthebuttofnegativereporting.
TheotherRepublicancandidateshavereceivedlittlecoverage,eitherpositiveornegative.I
guesstheKremlindoesnotconsidertheminthemixoflikelywinners.
Despitebudgetwoes,VladimirPutindoesnotspareexpenseingettingouthismessage
throughRTanditssisteroutletSputnik.Bothaimforadegreeofrespectabilityandtryto
refrainfromtheoutrightoutlandish.ThereareallkindsofunofficialoutletsforKremlin
garbageinsocialmedia.
(APPhoto/AlexanderZemlianichenko)
RTportraysSandersasakindly,grandfatherlyfigure,anidealistdedicatedtoequality,justice,
fairness,socialdemocracyandafighteragainstcorporateinterests,themilitaryindustrial
complex,andthewealthy.Sandersfollowersarepicturedasidealistsstrugglingforajust
society.
RTsHillaryClintonisaflawedandunpopularfigurecompromisedbyemailscandals,flip-flops,
areputationfordishonesty,grubbingforcampaigncontributions,cheatingintownhall
meetings,futileattemptstodistanceherselffromWallStreet,andalosingbattleagainst
thehumble,regular-guySanders.
OntheRepublicanside,RTlabelsTrumpastheclearfrontrunner,anextraordinaryperson,
whoattractsenthusiasticandunprecedentedcrowds.RTheraldshisrejectionoftheIraqwar,
hismanytalents,hiscuttingdebatestyle,andhisrespectforanddefenseofVladimirPutin.
DonaldTrumpFavorabilityRatingOverTime|InsideGov
RT(anditssisterpublication,Sputnik)havelesskindwordsforMarcoRubio.Amongother
missteps,RubioissaidtohavedeclaredtheParismassacreanactofGod,histhugs
haveattackedprotesters,heisaWallStreetinsider,andwishestocanceltheIraniannuclear
deal.RTleavesittotheKremlinsbottomfeederstolabelRubioawarmonger,butthey
ridiculehimforwearinghighheelstomaskhisshortstature.
Inthemostrecentdebate,SanderspickedtinyparanoidNorthKoreaasthegreatestthreatto
America,versusClintonsbelligerentRussia.Russia,Clintonwarns,istryingtomovepost
WorldWarIIboundariesandtosetEuropeancountriesoneagainsttheother.Sanderscallfor
anewNATO-likeorganizationthatincludesRussiatocombatradicalIslamicterrorismmustbe
beautifulmusictoPutinsears.Putinshouldbeconfidenthecanruncirclesaroundtheother-
worldlySanders.PutinschoicesofSandersandTrumprequirenogeniustoanalyze.Sanderss
antiwarpacifismandinexperienceinworldpowerpoliticsmakehimaseasymarkforPutin.
BernieSandersFavorabilityRatingOverTime|InsideGov
PutinhasanevenstrongeraffinityforTrump.TrumpsatisfiesPutinspathologicalneedfor
praiseandrespect.TrumpcharacterizesPutinaleader(incontrasttoBarackObama)
anddefendshimagainstchargesofmurderingopponents:Putinkilledreporters?Proveit.
Inhisannual2015pressconference,PutincharacterizedTrumpasaverycolorfuland
talentedman,nodoubtaboutthat.Hesaysthathewantstomovetoanotherlevelof
relations,toadeeperlevelofrelationswithRussia.Howcanwenotwelcomethat?
TrumpsgreatestattractionforPutinishisapparentindifferencetowardsconflictsinwhich
Russiaisengaged.AccordingtoTrump,theyarenotAmericasbusiness:LetRussiafight
[IslamicState],iftheywanttofighttheminSyria.LetSyriaand[IslamicState]fight.Why
dowecare?
IfTrumpwantsotherstofightMiddleEasternwars,hemightdecide,toPutinsdelight,tolet
haplessandtoothlessGermanyorFrancedefendUkraineandtheBalticstatesfromRussian
aggression.
UnlikeTrumpsisolationismwithrespecttoEuropeanandMiddleEasternhotspots,Putin
understandsthatRubiohasstakedoutahawkishpositionwithrespecttoRussia.
RubiojoinedhisSenatecolleaguesinsupportingstrictersanctionsagainstRussiaandin
pushingforlethalmilitaryaidtoUkraine.Toaddinsulttoinjury,RubiohasdaredtocallPutin
agangsterleadingacriminalregimeandhasdredgedupthe1999apartment
bombingslikelyorderedbyPutintojustifytheSecondChechenWar.Russiacannotallowa
threatlikeRubiotobecomepresident.
AmericanvoterssupportTrumpandSandersbecausetheyareangrywithhowWashington
works.Theyareingoodcompany,andtheyhaveeveryreasontobeappalled.
TrumpandSanderssupportersmust,however,understandthattheirbackingofapie-in-the-
skysocialist/pacifistoranentertainer/businessmanputstheminthesamecampasRussias
corruptleader.VladimirPutinishopingAmericanvotersgivehimtheopportunitytoplaychess
againstcheckersamateursashepullsEuropeapart,strengthensunsavoryregimesinIranand
Syria,andseekstorestorelostSovietterritorybyforce.
TheBlazecontributorchannelsupportsanopendiscourseonarangeofviews.Theopinions
expressedinthischannelaresolelythoseofeachindividualauthor.
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Wed,Apr27,2016at11:40PM
Subject:TrumpsForeignPolicySpeech(transcript)/+WSJ
To:
WSJ"Mr.TrumprepeatedlysaidatopprioritywouldbeexpandingtheU.S.military,modernizingits
nuclearweaponsarsenalandgreatlyincreasingthenumberofU.S.troops,shipsandaircraft.Buthe
stoppedshortofdetailingwhatanewAmericanmilitarywoulddo,orwhattheroleofabeefed-uparmed
serviceswouldbe,orhowthatplanwouldcoexistwithavisionofagreatlyreducedU.S.footprint."
TrumpsAmericaFirstForeignPolicySpeech(transcript)
http://time.com/4309786/read-donald-trumps-america-first-foreign-policy-speech/
...WedesiretolivepeacefullyandinfriendshipwithRussiaandChina.Wehaveseriousdifferenceswith
thesetwonations,andmustregardthemwithopeneyes,butwearenotboundtobeadversaries.We
shouldseekcommongroundbasedonsharedinterests.
Russia,forinstance,hasalsoseenthehorrorofIslamicterrorism.Ibelieveaneasingoftensions,and
improvedrelationswithRussiafromapositionofstrengthonlyispossible,absolutelypossible.
Commonsensesaysthiscycle,thishorriblecycleofhostilitymustendandideallywillendsoon.Good
forbothcountries.
SomesaytheRussianswontbereasonable.Iintendtofindout.Ifwecantmakeadealundermy
administration,adealthatsgreatnotgood,greatforAmerica,butalsogoodforRussia,thenwe
willquicklywalkfromthetable.Itsassimpleasthat.Weregoingtofindout.
FixingourrelationswithChinaisanotherimportantstepandreallytowardcreatinganevenmore
prosperousperiodoftime.Chinarespectsstrengthandbylettingthemtakeadvantageofus
economically,whichtheyaredoinglikeneverbefore,wehavelostalloftheirrespect.
WehaveamassivetradedeficitwithChina,adeficitthatwehavetofindawayquickly,andImean
quickly,tobalance.AstrongandsmartAmericaisanAmericathatwillfindabetterfriendinChina,better
thanwehaverightnow.LookatwhatChinaisdoingintheSouthChinaSea.Theyrenotsupposedto
bedoingit.
Norespectforthiscountryorthispresident.Wecanbothbenefitorwecanbothgoourseparateways.If
needbe,thatswhatsgoingtohavetohappen.
AfterImelectedpresident,IwillalsocallforasummitwithourNATOalliesandaseparatesummitwith
ourAsianallies.Inthesesummits,wewillnotonlydiscussarebalancingoffinancialcommitments,but
takeafreshlookathowwecanadoptnewstrategiesfortacklingourcommonchallenges.Forinstance,
wewilldiscusshowwecanupgradeNATOsoutdatedmissionandstructure,grownoutoftheColdWar,
toconfrontoursharedchallenges,includingmigrationandIslamicterrorism.
...
DonaldTrumpCallsforDramaticBreakWithCurrentU.S.ForeignPolicy
GOPfront-runnercallsforexpandingthesizeofthemilitary,whilepullingbackfromglobalhotspots
http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-calls-for-dramatic-break-with-current-u-s-foreign-policy-
1461783848
Inararepolicyspeech,Republicanfront-runnerDonaldTrumpoutlinedhisforeignpolicyplanifelected
asthenextpresidentoftheUnitedStates.
ByDamianPalettaandPeterNicholas
UpdatedApril27,20169:48p.m.
821COMMENTS
Republicanpresidentialfront-runnerDonaldTrump,emboldenedbyfreshprimarywinsthisweekand
pivotingtowardalikelygeneral-electionfight,calledWednesdayfortheU.S.topullbackfromitsglobal
engagements,markingadecisivebreakfromrecentRepublicanorthodoxy.
Mr.Trumpsfirstmajorforeign-policyaddressoutlinedaseriesofbluntprinciples,someofthem
arguablycontradictory,andwasnotableforitswillingnesstoexcoriatethevisionofformerPresident
GeorgeW.Bush,aswellasPresidentBarackObama.
ThespeechcameadayafterMr.TrumpandDemocratHillaryClintontookall-but-irreversiblecontrolof
theirpartiesnominationprocesseswithsweepingprimaryvictoriesinNortheasternstates.Theirrivals
respondeddifferentlytotheirfadinghopesonWednesday.
Mr.Trumpsleadingrival,TexasSen.TedCruz,tooktheunusualstepofnaminghispotentialrunning
matethreemonthsbeforetheRepublicanconvention,choosingformerHewlett-PackardCo.Chief
ExecutiveCarlyFiorina.
VermontSen.BernieSanders,Mrs.Clintonsrival,islayingoffhundredsoffieldstaff,thecampaignsaid.
ThemovefollowedatoughstretchinwhichMr.SanderslostfiveofthelastsixprimaryconteststoMrs.
Clinton.
Thefront-runners,incontrast,spentthedaymostlyfocusedoneachotherandthegeneralelection.The
ClintoncampaignsoughttocapitalizeonMr.TrumpscommentinavictoryspeechTuesdaynightthatif
Mrs.Clintonwereaman,Idontthinkshedget5%ofthevote.Clintonaidessentoutafundraising
messageattackinghisabsurddiatribeagainstHillary,addingthatMrs.Clintonneededdonations
becauseshehadtobepreparedforMr.Trumpsunpredictablemessage.
Thenewlandscapepromptedrenewedscrutinyofthefront-runnerspositions,especiallywhenitcomes
toMr.Trump,whowouldbetheonlymajorpartynomineeinrecentmemorywithnogovernmentor
militaryexperience.Acentralaspectofhisforeign-policyaddress,attheMayflowerHotelafewblocks
fromtheWhiteHouse,wasitssolemndelivery,aftermonthsofraucousralliesandoftencoarse
comments.
Mr.TrumpsoverridingthemewasthattheU.S.mustresetitsrelationswithothercountries,easing
tensionswhenpossible,showingenemiesthattheU.S.meansbusiness,andguardingagainst
becominginvolvedintoomanypartsoftheworld.DespitedifferenceswithChinaandRussia,hesaid,
Wearenotboundtobeadversaries.
Strikinganationalisticandpopulisttone,Mr.Trumpwasunambiguousinsayinghewoulddemandthat
alliespaytheU.S.partofthebillfordefendingthemorelsetheywouldhavetodefendthemselves.
ManyofMr.TrumpscommentscontrastedwithrecentRepublicanforeignpolicy.GOPleaders,ledby
suchfiguresasMr.BushandSen.JohnMcCain(R.,Ariz.),haveoftencalledformuscularU.S.
engagementintheMiddleEast,Ukraineandelsewhere.
Thespeechwasmostlydevoidofnewproposals,butwasharshinitscriticismofMr.ObamaforwhatMr.
TrumpcalledanincoherentforeignpolicythatfavoredAmericasenemies,disappointeditsfriendsand
relegateditssecuritytoalowerpriority.
MyforeignpolicywillalwaysputtheinterestsoftheAmericanpeopleandAmericansecurityaboveall
else,Mr.Trumpsaid.Ithastobefirst.Hastobe.
WhiteHousespokesmanJoshEarnestdefendedMr.Obamasrecordandsaidvoterswouldhaveto
decideforthemselveswhotheywantasthenextcommanderinchief.
WhatistrueisthatPresidentObamaoverthecourseofhispresidencyhasworkedtounitethe
internationalcommunitytoconfrontawiderangeofthreats,hesaid.
Mr.TrumprepeatedlysaidatopprioritywouldbeexpandingtheU.S.military,modernizingitsnuclear
weaponsarsenalandgreatlyincreasingthenumberofU.S.troops,shipsandaircraft.
ButhestoppedshortofdetailingwhatanewAmericanmilitarywoulddo,orwhattheroleofabeefed-up
armedserviceswouldbe,orhowthatplanwouldcoexistwithavisionofagreatlyreducedU.S.
footprint.Mr.TrumpnotedthattheU.S.mustbewillingtostopdefendingEuropeanalliesthathesaid
dontcontributeenoughtotheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization,adding,TheU.S.mustbepreparedto
letthesecountriesdefendthemselves.
WhileMr.TrumpoutlinedgeneralprincipleslikemakingAmericaagreatandreliableallyagain,he
providedlittleindicationofhowthatmightplayoutinacomplexhotspotsuchasSyria.
Advocatingbothaggressivenessanddisengagement,Mr.TrumpdidnthesitatetogoafterMr.Bush,
sayinghis2003decisiontoinvadeIraqdestabilizedtheMiddleEastandthebiggestbeneficiaryhas
beenIran.AndhesaidMr.ObamasactionsintheMiddleEastgaverisetoIslamicState,aterror
networkthathesaidmustbedefeated,thoughhedidntspecifyhow.
Despitethegrandersetting,Mr.Trumpdidntretracthismorecontroversialforeign-policyideas,
reiterating,forexample,hiscallforapauseinallowingMuslimstoentertheU.S.
Buthealsodidntrepeatseveralproposalsthathavebeenpillarsofhisnational-securityplanformonths
andaregreetedwithroarsofapprovalathisrallies.Theseincludetheconstructionofa1,000-milewall
ontheU.S.-Mexicoborderandharsherinterrogationsofterrorsuspects.
Mr.TrumptriedtotetherMrs.ClintontoMr.Obamaherbosswhenshewassecretaryofstatesaying
thetwolettheU.S.loseinfluenceandalliesaroundtheworld.
Ourgoalispeaceandprosperity,notwaranddestruction,Mr.Trumpsaid.Thebestwaytoachieve
thosegoalsisthroughadisciplined,deliberateandconsistentforeignpolicy.WithPresidentObamaand
SecretaryClinton,wevehadtheexactoppositeareckless,rudderlessandaimlessforeignpolicy,one
thathasblazedapathofdestructioninitswake.
TheClintoncampaignwassharplycriticalofthespeech,sayingtheTrumpapproachwouldmakethe
worldmorechaoticanddangerous.Iveneverseensuchacombinationofsimplisticslogans,
contradictionsandmisstatementsinonespeech,saidformerSecretaryofStateMadeleineAlbrightina
callarrangedbytheClintoncampaign.
Ms.AlbrightalsocriticizedhisuseofthetermAmericaFirst,sayingitechoedtheAmericaFirst
CommitteethaturgedtheU.S.tostayoutofWorldWarII,despiteNaziGermanysaggressionin
Europe.Maybeheneverreadhistory,orhejustdoesntunderstandit,shesaid.
SeveralRepublicans,includingSen.LindseyGraham(R.,S.C.),anadvocateofstrongU.S.engagement,
alsoattackedthespeech.
Manynational-securityandforeign-policyadvisersfrombothpartieshaverejectedMr.Trumpspolicies,
sayingbanningtheentryofMuslimsandbuildinganewalliancewithRussiacouldbedangerous.
TherearesignsthatmoreRepublicansarewarmingtoMr.Trumpscandidacy,oratleastcomingto
termswiththefactthatheistheirlikelynominee.SenateForeignRelationsChairmanBobCorker(R.,
Tenn.),whosofarhaddeclinedtoweighinontheWhiteHouserace,said,DonaldTrumpdelivereda
verygoodforeign-policyspeechinwhichhelaidouthisvisionforAmericanengagementintheworld.
Atonepoint,Mr.TrumpsaidtheonlywaytocombatIslamicStatewastobecomemoreunpredictable
asanation.
Wearetotallypredictable,hesaid.Wetelleverything.Weresendingtroops.Wetellthem.Were
sendingsomethingelse.Wehaveanewsconference.Wehavetobeunpredictable.Andwehavetobe
unpredictablestartingnow.
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Subject:WhatdoRussiansthinkofDonaldTrump?-BBCNews
http://www.bbc.com/news/36155109
WhatdoRussiansthinkofDonaldTrump?
27April2016Lastupdatedat22:52BST
Ifthepopulationsoftherestoftheworld'sG20countriescouldvoteintheUSelection,they'doverwhelminglyvoteforHillary
ClintonoverDonaldTrump.
That'saccordingtoarecentpollbyGermany'sHandelsblattpublishinggroupandYouGov,theonlinepollster.
Butthere'sonecountrywheretheformerFirstLadytakesabackseattothebillionaireRepublicanfront-runnerfromNew
York,andthat'sRussia.
SteveRosenbergwenttoanAmerican-themeddinerinMoscowtofindoutwhy.
From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Subject:TrumpJumpsIntoBedWithPutin
TrumpJumpsIntoBedWithPutin
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/trump-jumps-into-bed-with-putin/
DonaldJ.Trumpsforeignpolicyaddresswasdeliveredwiththeaidofateleprompterandwrittenbyhispro-Russianadvisers.He
tooknoquestions.ItwasareplayofformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonsdisastrousRussianresetthatledtotheRussian
invasionofUkraine.Yet,TrumppretendstobeanopponentofMrs.Clintonsforeignpolicy.
WeclearlysawtheinfluenceofTrumpspro-Russianadvisersinthespeech.TherewasabsolutelynorecognitionoftheRussian
threattoEurope,includingitsinvasionandoccupationofUkraine.
Evenourmediacouldntignorethisblatantomission.CNNinternationalcorrespondentFrederickPleitgennotedafterthespeech
thatTrumpsomissionofUkrainewasgreatnewsforRussia,andthattheRussianswillbealmostecstaticoverthespeech.He
saidmanypeopleinRussiaareadmirersofTrump.
Ofcourse,TrumpadmiresVladimirPutin,andviceversa.Thatisamatterofrecord.Trumpdidntdisavowhispreviouspro-Putin
comments.
TrumpwasnavetotheextremeintalkingaboutcooperationwithRussia.Forexample,herepeatedlytalkedaboutthethreat
posedbyIran,withoutnotingthatIransmainsponsorisRussia.TrumpcannotbetoughwithIranwhileplayingnicewithRussia.
TrumpclaimstobeforIsrael,butheignoresRussianbackingfortheIraniannuclearweaponsprogram.Thismakesnosense,
exceptfromapro-Russianpointofview.TheIranianthreatismadepossiblebyPutin.
TrumpsaidhewantedtopressureChinatodosomethingaboutNorthKoreasnuclearprogram.ButChinaandNorthKoreaare
bothcommunistcountries.Theyhaveatreatytogether.NorthKoreaalsohasatreatywithRussia.Theinternationalcommunist
movementisaliveandwell.ChinabacksNorthKoreaforideologicalreasons.
SincetheendoftheColdWarandthebreakupoftheSovietUnion,wevelackedacoherentforeignpolicy,Trumpsaid.
PerhapstheSovietbreakupwasdesignedtoconfuseus.PerhapsthefactthatRussianPresidentPutinisaformerKGBofficeris
noaccident,andtheresareasonwhyRussianforeignpolicyresemblesthatoftheoldSovietUnion.
IfPresidentObamasgoalhadbeentoweakenAmerica,hecouldnothavedoneabetterjob,saidTrump.ButwhatisTrumps
goal?TrumpfailedtoarticulateapolicyofregimechangeinRussiathatwouldputPutinontrialforviolationsofinternationallaw
andcrimesagainsthumanityinUkraineandSyria.
MoscowhascreatedmuchoftheconflictintheMiddleEastandaroundtheworldthatthreatenstheU.S.,EuropeandIsrael.
TrumpseemsoblivioustoRussianaggression.
TrumpsayswecanjoinwithRussiaagainstIslamicterrorism.ButsomeexpertssaytheRussiansarebehindISIS,al-Qaedaand
otherIslamicterroristgroups,forthepurposeofdestabilizingtheregionandhelpingIranexpand.
TrumpsapproachisthesameattitudethatcharacterizedtheObama/Clintonadministration.AfterHillarysdisastrousresetwith
RussiacameRussianmembershipintheWorldTradeOrganizationandmoreWesterninvestmentinRussia.Then,Obamamocked
MittRomneyduringthe2012presidentialcampaignforcallingRussiaageopoliticalthreat.Now,Trumpproposestoignorethe
RussianinvasionofUkraineandengineeraresetofhisownwithPutin.PerhapsTrumpsattitudeisdrivenbyhishistoryoftryingto
dobusinessdealswithMoscow.
Inoneofhismostnavemoments,Trumpsaid,IbelieveaneasingoftensionsandimprovedrelationswithRussia,fromaposition
ofstrengthonly,ispossible,absolutelypossible.Commonsensesaysthiscycle,thishorriblecycleofhostilitymustend,andideally
willendsoon.Goodforbothcountries.ApositionofstrengthwouldseemtodictatethatweconfrontRussiainUkraineby
supportingthegovernmentandpeoplethere.TheywanttobefreeofRussiancontrol.TrumpsaysAmericashouldbetheleaderof
theFreeWorld.YetTrumpjusthiredanadviserwhowasamemberoftheteambackingthecommunistsinUkraine.Another
TrumpadviserworksforaRussiangascompany.
ThebillionairebusinessmanhasastrangeblindspotwhenitcomestoPutinsRussia.
ApositionofstrengthmeansconfrontingRussiaoveritssupportofIran.Trumpsaid,Wedesiretolivepeacefullyandinfriendship
withRussiaandChina.Wehaveseriousdifferenceswiththesetwonations,andmustregardthemwithopeneyes,butwearenot
boundtobeadversaries.Weshouldseekcommongroundbasedonsharedinterests.
Whatseriousdifferences?Ukraine?Trumpdidntmentionthat.WhatcommongroundistherewithRussia?
Trumpiscorrectthattheforeignpolicyestablishmenthasmadeamess.Butitseemsclearheisinbedwithsomemembersofthe
establishment.Forexample,hehaslookedtoRichardHaassoftheCouncilonForeignRelationsforforeignpolicyadvice.I
respectRichardHaass,Trumphassaid.AndIlikehimalot.
TheTrumpforeignpolicyspeechwassponsoredbyTheNationalInterest,apublicationoftheCouncilfortheNationalInterest,
whoseBoardofDirectorsincludesHenryKissingerasitsHonoraryChairman.OtherboardmembersincludeLeslieGelb,
PresidentEmeritusoftheCouncilonForeignRelations.
KissingerhasbeenpraisedbyHillaryClinton,whosays,Kissingerisafriend,andIreliedonhiscounselwhenIservedas
SecretaryofState.ButKissingersworkasSecretaryofState,andsubsequentlyasaconsultanttoforeigncompaniesand
governments,hasresultedinthebuildingupofRussiaandChinaatAmericanexpense.Kissingeralsoengineeredourdefeatin
Vietnam,withthehelpofaliberalCongress.
Today,ourtopgeneralssayRussiaisthegreatestthreattotheUnitedStates,anexistentialthreat,meaningtheRussianscan
incinerateournationbecauseoftheirnuclearweaponsadvantage.TrumptalksaboutmodernizingtheU.S.nucleararsenal,but
withoutbeingcriticalofthegrowingRussiannuclearthreat.ThisstrangedeferencetoRussiaranthroughouttheentirespeech.
Inthrowingoutsomeredmeattoconservatives,Trumpsaid,Wewillnolongersurrenderthiscountryoritspeopletothefalse
songofglobalism.Thenation-stateremainsthetruefoundationforhappinessandharmony.Iamskepticalofinternationalunions
thattieusupandbringAmericadownandwillneverenterAmericaintoanyagreementthatreducesourabilitytocontrolourown
affairs.
WillhegettheU.S.outoftheU.N.and/oritsmanyagencies?Thatstherealtestofbeingagainstglobalism.Butratherthangetus
outoftheU.N.,itlookslikeTrumpwillworkwithRussiaandChinaontheU.N.SecurityCouncil.
Despitethemediabuildupforthespeech,itsclearthatonthematteroftheU.S-RussianrelationshipTrumpdoesntrepresenta
realchangefromthepoliciesoftheObama/Hillaryadministration.AcontestbetweenHillaryandTheDonaldmeanstheRussians
emergeasthewinnersnomatterwhowins.AnotherRussianresetisinthecards,compoundingtheAmericanweaknessthat
Trumpsayshewantstodosomethingabout.
CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontacted
atcliff.kincaid@aim.org
From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 04/29/201601:36:23PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes29April2016
Attachments: IN29April16.docx
InternetNotes29April2016
MorefromRosbaltontheNemtsovmurderinvestigation(Khatayev)
EuropeanTVchannelholdsupairingNekrasovsfilmonMagnitskiy
KashinontheMagnitskiyaffair/Rolduginconnection
ZolotovandKudrin:WhatstheKremlinupto?
NovayaGazetaontheendofthedemocraticcoalition
AcrisisintheRussianopposition?(Kasyanov)
BelkovskiyonNavalniy/Yashinvs.Kasyanov
Consumerconfidenceatalowpoint
NODactivistsattackparticipantsatMemorialevent
LavrovonRussiasaimingforselfsufficiency
MorefromRosbaltontheNemtsovmurderinvestigation(Khatayev)
http://www.rosbalt.ru/moscow/2016/04/27/1510020.html
TheInvestigativeCommittee(SK)islookingforaChechenMVDofficer,AslambekKhatayev,whovisitedtheapartmentinMoscowwhereRuslanGeremeyevwasstayingandmetwithothersuspectsinMoscowhotelsKhatayevwasinMoscowonassignmentaspartofa
securitydetailforChechenofficials(Comment:Whichiswhatweheardaboutsomeoftheothersuspects),thoughitisnotclearwhotheofficialorofficialswere.InvestigatorsbelieveKhatayevleftMoscowforChechnyaInvestigatorsnowsaythatallofthesuspects
wereinvolvedindebtcollectingtheyreceivedhalfofrecovereddebts.Whenthedebtcollectorsencounteredadebtowedbysomeonewithconnections,theycalledinGeremeyevastheirheavyartilleryComment:Recalltheitemwesawbackinthe19February
notesonthebrutaltacticsemployedbydebtcollectorsandcomplaintsagainstthem.
Heresmore:
http://www.interpretermag.com/russia-update-april-27-2016/
AttorneysVadimProkhorovandOlgaMikhailovawhorepresentstheinterestsofZhannaNemtsova,daughterofslainoppositionleaderBorisNemtsovsayseveralmoreindividualswereinvolvedinNemtsov'smurderwhohavenotbeenindicted,RBC.rureports.
TheattorneyssubmittedastatementtodaytoNikolaiTutevich,theseniorspecialcasesinvestigatorassignedtoNemtsov'scase.NemtsovwasassassinatedFebruary27,2015andthecasehasnotyetcometotrial,althoughfoursuspectsareincustodyonchargesofperpetratingor
assistinginthemurder.
ThestatementreferencescasefilesthatindicatethatRussia'sInvestigativeCommitteebelievesthatRuslanGeremeyev,anofficeroftheSeverBattalionwithintheInteriorMinistryInternalTroposinChechnya,organizedthemurder,alongwithhisbrotherArtur.Thesetroopswererecently
reorganizedintotheNationalGuard,andsomehavespeculatedthatthisrestructuringwasmeanttoreininarmedforcesthathadcometoberegardedas"thepersonalarmy"ofChechenleaderRamzanKadyrov.
AccordingtotheRussianregistryofbusinesses,ArturGeremeyevistheownerofoneoftheapartmentsthatfiguresinthecase,no.46VeyernayaStreet.(Forourcompleteanalysisofthesuspects'movementsandlocations,seehereseealsoourtranslationofNovayaGazeta's"How
BorisNemtsovWasMurdered."
Theattorneys'petitionalsomentionsAlibekDelimkhanov,commanderoftheSovetBattalionandrelativeofthepowerfulChechenStateDumamemberAdamDelimkhanov,aswellastwoothersnotpreviouslymentioned:AslanbekKhatayev,anofficeroftheChechenInteriorMinistryand
ShamkhanTazabayev--apersonwiththisnameholdsapostasdeputydirectoroftheLeninDistrictCenterforPublicSocialServicesinChechnya).Finally,SuleymanGeremeyev,apowerfulChechensenatorrelatedtoRuslanGeremeyev,andVakhaGeremekhev,headoftheDistrict
DepartmentofInteriorAffairs[thepolice]forShelkovskyDistrictinChechnyaareindicatedinthestatementaswell.TheattorneyshaverepeatedlyaskedforSuleymanandVakhaGeremeyevtobeinterrogated.Investigatorshaverefused.
RBCsitessourcesthatsayinvestigatorsdidtrytoissuechargesinabsentiaagainstRuslanGeremeyev,butbothtimesAleksandrBastrykin,headoftheInvestigativeCommittee,turneddowntherequest,sayingtherewasinsufficientevidence.
NovayaGazetaobtainedascreenshotofasurveillancecameraatthePresidentHotelinMoscow,whereChechenassassinswithcontractsaresaidtogather,showingRuslanGeremeyevl,whoreportedlyfledRussiabutmayhavereturnednow,andasuspectwhoisalreadyincustody,
TamerlanEskerkhanov.
RBCiscurrentlyseekingclarificationfromtheInvestigativeCommittee.
AsRBCreportedearlier,inJanuary,Tutevichdecidedtoseparateoutfromthemainmurdercasethecaseofthesupposedorganizersoftheassassination,RuslanGeremeyevandhisdriver,RuslanMukhudinov,alongwithsixothersnotnamedwhoweresaidtoproposetoZaurDadayev,a
Severofficerdesignatedasthemainperpetrator,tokillNemtsovfor15millionrubles(about$229,000).
TheNemtsovfamilyattorneyshavecalledforkeepingthecasestogetherbecauseotherwiseitisnotclearwhytheperpetratorshadamotivationtokillNemtsov.Astheirstatementindictates(translationbyTheInterpreter):
"FromthematerialsofthecriminalcaseitfollowsthattheinvestigationavoidedaproperinvestigationofNemtsov'smurder,anddidnotestablishthemotivesforhismurderwhichguidedtheorganizers.Moreover,adecisionswasartificiallyandunlawfullymadebytheinvestigationtoend
thepreliminaryinvestigationonthemain,so-called"parentcase."
TheattorneysbelievetheinvestigatorsshouldhavekeptthecasesunitedandpursuedtheleadsmorevigorouslyinsteadofclosingacasethatpointstopowerfulindividualsintheentourageofChechenleaderRamzanKadyrov.
Basically,topintheorganizationofthemurderonanofficer'sdriverinaseparatecasethatwon'tbetried(becausehehasfledabroad),thenonlyfocusingontheimmediatefactsoftheperpetrationofthemurder--astheyhavedonewithsomanycasesinvolvingpubliccriticsbefore--the
InvestigativeCommitteeisindicatingonceagainthatitcan'ttakeonKadyrov.
ThusspeculationthattheNationalGuardreorganizationhas"reinedin"KadyrovmaynothavemeritunlesstheKremlinbelievesitcancontrolKadyrovgoingforwardbyclosingthebookonhispastcrimes.
--CatherineA.Fitzpatrick
EuropeanTVchannelholdsupairingNekrasovsfilmonMagnitskiy
Seeyesterdaysnotes.
http://www.rferl.mobi/a/magnitsky-film-on-hold-european-tv-channel-arte/27704772.html
BRUSSELS--AEuropeantelevisionchannelwillnotairacontroversialnewdocumentarynextweekonSergeiMagnitsky,thelawyerwhohelpeduncoveramassivetaxfraudcaseinRussiaandlaterdiedinaRussianjail,aspreviouslyplanned.
Claude-AnneSavin,aspokeswomanforARTEEuropean,saidtheFranco-Germanchannelisreviewingthefilminresponsetocomplaintsaboutitsaccuracyto"makesurethefilmisclean."
DespitethecancellationoftheMay3airingofthefilm,titledTheMagnitskyAct--BehindTheScenes,Savinsaidthechannelstillmightairit"inafewweeks."
ARTEpulledthepromotionalteaseforthefilmfromitswebsite.
LawyerSergeiMagnitsky
Thefilm,whichwasshotbyRussiandocumentaryfilmmakerAndreiNekrasov,wasscheduledtopremiereattheEuropeanParliamentonApril27.ThatshowingwascanceledfollowingcomplaintsfromMagnitsky'srelativesandformercolleagues.GermanparliamentarianMarieluiseBeckalsocomplainedthat
footageofherstaffwasusedwithoutpermission.
Magnitskyblewthewhistleona$230milliontax-fraudschemeanddiedin2009whilebeingheldonfraudchargesinaMoscowpretrialdetentionfacility.Hisfamilyandfriendssaythat,priortohisdeath,hewasbeaten,tortured,anddeniedmedicalcare.
WilliamBrowder,aU.S.-bornBritishinvestorwhoemployedMagnitskyandhasledtheinternationalcampaigntoholdMoscowaccountableforhisdeath,sayshesentARTEalistof"factualerrors"inthefilmandwarnedthemtheywouldbelegallyaccountableforknowinglybroadcastingfalsestatements.
"Itisonethingtohavefreespeech,butitisanotherthingtotrytomanipulateandtouselies,innuendo,andfabricationstomakeapointwhichisn'ttrue,"BrowdertoldRFE/RL."That'swhytherearelibellawsouttheretoprotectpeoplefromthistypeofthing."
WilliamBrowder
"Themovieisjustacollectionofliesandfabrications,whichdesecratesthememoryofSergeiMagnitskyandchangesthewholestoryofhowhedied,"Browderadded.
BrowderscampaignonbehalfofMagnitskyresultedintheU.S.Congresspassingalawin2012sanctioningseveralRussianofficialsfortheirallegedinvolvementinthelawyersdeath.ThelawdeeplyangeredMoscow.
NekrasovhasproducedseveralfilmshighlycriticalofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.HewasafriendofformerRussianFederalSecurityServiceofficerAleksandrLitvinenko,whowaskilledbyaradioactivesubstanceinLondonin2006.His2007documentaryaboutthatcasepremieredattheCannesFilm
FestivalandwasshowninMoscowattheSakharovCenterhumanrightsorganization.
His2010film,RussianLessons,aboutthe2008warbetweenRussiaandGeorgia,exposedfalsificationsandmanipulationsundertakenbyRussianstatetelevisionincoveringeventsbefore,during,andafterthatconflict.
ButhisMagnitskyfilmisdecidedlydifferent.NekrasovwroteanApril27blogpostthatthefilmchangedhis"consciousnessand,probably,mylife."
ThefilmassertsthatMagnitskywasnotbeatenwhileinpolicecustodyandthathedidnotmakeanyspecificallegationsagainstindividualsinhistestimonytoRussianauthorities,Nekrasovwrites.
InaninterviewwithRFE/RLonApril27,NekrasovsaidhebeganthefilmwiththeintentionoftellingthestoryofhowMagnitskyuncoveredthetaxfraudandwaskilledinordertosilencehim.
ThissequenceofeventshasbeenthoroughlydocumentedbyBrowderandothers--including,inpart,bytheKremlin'sownhumanrightscouncil.
Nekrasov,however,saysthatmakingthefilmchangedhismind.
"Ididn'tabandonthatnarrativeeasilybecauseIwasideologicallyveryclosetoBrowder,"hesaid."Iwasalsoaregimecritic,honestly,onalotofcounts.Butifwearenottellingthetruth,thenitmakesiteasierforthebadguystocarryondoingtheirbadthings."
TheabortedApril27screeningattheEuropeanParliamentwasorganizedbyFinnishlawmakerHeidiHautala,amemberoftheGreenParty.RebeccaHarms,presidentoftheGreensattheEuropeanParliament,wroteonTwitterthattheplannedscreeningwas"notaneventoftheGreens"groupinthelegislative
chamber.
Hautala,likeNekrasov,hasalongrecordofdefendinghumanrightsandofcriticizingRussia.Shewasasponsoroftheoriginal2010EuropeanParliamentresolutioncallingforEUmemberstatestoimposesanctionsagainstRussianofficialsinvolvedintheMagnitskycase,similartotheU.S.sanctions.
AccordingtoFinnishmedia,shehasalsobeenromanticallylinkedtoNekrasov.ShetoldtheEUObserverwebsiteonApril27that"weareclosefriendsI'veknownhim[for]manyyears."
"Itisveryimportanttoverifythefactsandlistentodifferentparties,"shesaidinaninterviewwithRFE/RL."I'mveryinterestedtoseewhattheconsequencesofthefilmofAndreiNekrasovwillbewhentheywillbeopenlydiscussed,openlyavailable,whenonedaytherewillbenoharassmentagainstthe
screeningofthisfilm."
AnotherorganizerofthecanceledBrusselspremierewasRussianlawyerNatalyaVeselnitskaya.SheisadefenselawyerforRussianbusinessmanDenisKatsyv,(Seethe28Aprilnotes)whoisthetargetofaU.S.federalcivilforfeiturecaseinNewYorkconcerningallegedmoneylaunderinglinkedtotheMagnitsky
case.
InNovember,aU.S.federalprosecutorsubmittedalettertothejudgeinthecasesayingthatVeselnitskaya,Katsyv,andothersinvolvedintheactionrackedupmorethan$50,000inexpensesontheU.S.governmentsdimeduringafour-daydepositioninNewYork.
Thecostsincludedatwo-nightstayatthePlazaHotel"ina$995/nightroomforNataliaVeselnitskaya,whowasnotdeposedanddidnotevenattendthedepositionsinperson,fortheweekendafterthedepositionshadconcluded,"U.S.AttorneyPreetBhararawroteintheletter.
"Ms.Veselnitskayaappearstohavestayedatalessexpensivehotelduringthedepositions,butmovedtothePlazaafterthedepositionsconcludedandonlyaftertheCourtorallystatedthattheGovernmentwouldberesponsibleforreimbursingDefendants'expenses,"Bhararaadded.
GermanlawmakerElmarBrok,chairmanoftheForeignAffairsCommitteeintheEuropeanParliament,toldRFE/RLtheefforttoshowthefilmattheparliamentwas"awrongidea."
"Thisisapieceofpropagandathatshouldnotbepartofourparliamentarywork,"hesaid.
Headdedthatheis"lookinginto"thematterofwhetherARTEshouldhavebeeninvolvedintheproject.Thechannelrelieson"financialsupportfromtheEuropeanUnion,"accordingtothechannel'swebsite,withthegoalto"producetelevisionprogramswhichareconducivetopromotingunderstandingand
cooperationbetweenEurope'snations."
PetrasAustrevicius,aLithuanianmemberoftheEuropeanParliamentwhoalsoservesontheForeignAffairsCommittee,toldRFE/RLthatthepushtoscreenthefilmforthechamberwasoneofseveralmoves"bytheRussianauthorities"inorder"toweakenWesternconfidenceinitspolicyline"andsecurea
reviewofEUsanctionsagainstRussialaterthisyear.
"AndIexpectmoreandmoreactionslikethisinthemonthstocome,"Austreviciusadded."Andprobablyinaverycreativeway."
KashinontheMagnitskiyaffair/Rolduginconnection
Seeyesterdaysnotes.
http://rus2web.ru/mneniya/gotovyi-li-myi-poverit-novoj-versii-ubijstva-magnitskog.html
ArewereadytobelievethatthemoneystolenintheMagnitskiyaffairwoundupinPutinspurse?TakeitastepfurtherarewereadytobelievethatthemoneywasstolenbyPutin?Thatsaquestionrightupthereinimportancewith,say,thequestionarewereadyto
believethattheFSBcarriedoutthe1999apartmentbombings?Insituationslikethisinthepast,RussianpublicopinionhassidedwithPutinjusttryandfindarespectablecriticofvlastwhoiswillingto,forinstance,saythatPutinblewuptheapartments.EkhoMoskvy,for
instance,maintainsapresumptionofinnocenceforPutinTheanswertothequestionabouttheMagnitskiyaffairmoneyandPutinwillbegivenbypeoplelikeSobchakandVenediktovAbetterquestionisarewereadytobelievethosewhowilldefendPutin?
ZolotovandKudrin:WhatstheKremlinupto?
http://www.wilsoncenter.org/article/the-kremlin-entrenching-itself?
mkt_tok=eyJpIjoiWldZME0yWTNNVFpqWmpjMiIsInQiOiJ2bUVUTWg2UnhEd0FcL0RaZkJWdERvaStuWnpKREwrZzBpNVl4SlwvS3RDaFlJQjI2djU0UFlyMGt3WGFXQlhXcXowQ1czTklqaXQ1K2d1NHB5YkFFcDY2aFV0MldpZ0FCdExoR2VZdEM1aVJzPSJ9
TheKremlinIsEntrenchingItself
ByMaximTrudolyubov
TraditionaloppositioninRussia,negligiblysmallandweak,isnolongeratargetoftheKremlinsdesigns.Putinisnowdealingwithchallengesthatareinvisibletothenakedeye.Theyear2017willmarkthecentennialoftheRussianRevolutionanoccasiontoosymbolictoignore.Theyear2018willsee
presidentialelections,andPutinwillannouncewhetherornothewilltrytoremainintheKremlinforyetanotherterm.
Twomajorpoliticalprojects,bothlaunchedinAprilandbothinvolvingmenclosetoVladimirPutin,mayhelpusunderstandtheKremlinsthinkingaboutitsfuture.Oneprojecthastodowithdomesticsecuritytheotherisaboutstrategicpolicyplanning.BothwerelonginthemakingandaretheKremlins
responsestomountingeconomicandpoliticalpressures.
ThefirstprojectisPutinsdecision,announcedinearlyApril,tocreateanewsecurityagency,theNationalGuardofRussia.PutinchoseViktorZolotov,thelong-timeheadofthepresidentspersonalsecurityunitwhoservedasCommanderoftheRussianInteriorTroopsforthepasttwoyears,toleadthenew
force.TheInteriorTroops,InteriorAviation,OMON(riotpolice),SOBR(theRussianequivalentofSWATforce),asecuritycorporationformerlyrunbytheInteriorMinistry,theweaponslicensingdepartmentoftheInteriorMinistryallofthesestructures,numberingupto400,000members(roughly200,000of
themprofessionalmilitaryservicepersonnel)havenowbecomepartoftheNationalGuardremit.
Thebodyguard-in-chief,Zolotov,hasthusbeenelevatedtoaSecurityTsarofRussia.Allweapon-wieldingforces,withtheexceptionoftheFederalGuardServicetaskedwithprotectingtopofficials,andFSBssmallspecialforces,willnowreporttoZolotov,whowillinturnreportdirectlytoPutin.Throughthe
weaponlicensingservicehewillalsohaveeffectivecontroloverallprivatemilitaryandsecurityfirmsinRussia.
AnewcorpsofgendarmesisbeingcreatedattheexpenseoftheInteriorMinistry.Twoformersecurityagencies,adrugenforcementadministrationandanimmigrationagencyarebeingcutinsizeandputunderthecommandoftheInteriorMinister.Grom,aspecialforceforanti-drugspecialoperations,willalso
likelymovefromtheInteriortotheNationalGuard.TheSpecialCorpsofGendarmessecuritypolicethatexistedinRussiainthe19t handearly20t hcenturies,maybeseenasaprecursortothenewlycreatedforce.ItalsomaybecomparedtotheFrenchgendarmerieortheItaliancarabinieriratherthantheU.S.
NationalGuard,whichisareservemilitaryforce.NovisibledomesticthreatsseemtowarrantsuchamassivesecuritycentralizationinRussia.
ThesecondtellingdecisionisthatofgivingAlexeiKudrin,whoservedasFinanceMinisterfor11yearsandwasalsothefirstDeputyPrimeMinister,aleadingroleinthedraftingofafuturereformprogram.JustlikeZolotov,KudrinworkedwithPutinforalongtime.BothKudrinandPutinmovedfromSt.
PetersburgtoMoscowin1996attheinvitationofAnatolyChubais,thenBorisYeltsinschiefofstaff.KudrinwillnowchairtheCenterforStrategicResearch,athinktankonceclosetotheKremlin.
Kudrinistreadingcarefully.Headvocatesinstitutionalreform,placingjudiciaryandlawenforcementreformsattheforefrontofhisagenda,butstopsshortofcallingthecurrentsystemaccountableformismanagementandcorruption.Heevenletslipthewordperestroika,ataboointheKremlin,butonlyin
passing.ThisiscomfortablepoliticsfortheKremlin,aswellasformostpro-modernizationforceswithinRussiansociety.LittleseemedtoprecludePutinfromelevatingKudrintotheroleofareformtsarbutthepresidentdecidednotto.Kudrinsnewpositionfeelsunderwhelming.
Kudrinwasforcedtoleavethegovernmentin2011afterapublicrowwithPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedevovermilitaryspending.In2012,KudrincreatedtheCommitteeofCivicInitiatives,anNGOwithamissiontohelpsocietyinfluencegovernmentdecisions.Between2012and2016,Kudrinretainedhis
influencewiththeKremlinwhileacquiringrespectasacivilsocietyplayer.HesponsoredanumberofresearchprojectsandpolicyproposalsthatweremetwithmuchinterestonbothsidesoftheKremlinwalls.AdraftoftheInteriorMinistryreformthatKudrinsponsoredandpresentedin2013wasbasedonanin-
depthstudyofRussianpolice,conductedoriginallybytheEuropeanUniversityinSt.Petersburg.NotraceoftheseproposalsisfoundinthereformsthatcreatedtheNationalGuard.
AsimilarfatemightawaittheeffortthatKudrinisexpectedtoleadattheCenterforStrategicResearch.Threemajorreform-draftingprojectswereundertakenunderPutinandnoneofthemeverbecameabindingdocument.IncontrasttoZolotov,Kudrinhasnotbeengivenanyauthority,onlyvaguepromises.
[Kudrin]wasinvitedtodraftaneconomicprogramthathasnoofficialstatusorfunding,thepoliticalanalystKirillRogovwroteinaMoscowTimesop-ed.HewasofferedundefinedpowersonthepresidentsEconomicCouncil,astrangeandpracticallynon-functioningbodythatPutinhasnotconsultedeven
oncethroughout18monthsofeconomiccrisis.
Eventhesemi-independentrolethatKudrinwasplayingbetween2011and2016seemstohavebecometoofraughtfromtheKremlinviewpoint.PutinclearlypreferstohaveKudrininamoredependentpositionthatwouldsymbolizetheKremlinscontrolofthereformistdiscourse.PutinwillownwhateverKudrins
teamproduces,andwillbefreetouseitortoshelveit.WhatKudrinwillnolongerbeabletodoinhisnewcapacityismoreimportantthanwhathemighthavedoneasStrategist-in-Chief.TheappointmentofKudrinisadefensivemove,ratherthanapolicyplanninginitiative.
BothcreatingaRussiangendarmerieandplacingKudrinatthedrawingboardofahypotheticalreformplan,areforward-lookingmeasures.Theyarenotmeantforjustoneelectoralseason,whichisaparliamentaryelectioncominglaterthisyear.TheNationalGuardisunlikelytobefullyoperationalbySeptember,
andKudrinsmaingoalispost-2018Russia(2018istheyearofapresidentialelection).Thesearemeasuresofentrenchmentandseemtobeaimedatmakingthingsclearerbetweentherulinggroupandallothergroups,includingelitesandthebroadersociety.
Putinisaddressingissuesthathavenotbecomeapparentyet,andistryingtoanticipateproblemsemanatingfrompreviouslyloyalquarters.Hehasjustcreatedasuper-strongmantodealwithallsecuritystrongmenwhomightgorogue.Hehasjustappointedareformer-designatetomakesurenoonewouldbe
abletoteamupwithAlexeiKudrinforpolicyprojectsalternativetothoseoftheKremlin.
NovayaGazetaontheendofthedemocraticcoalition
Fromthe14Aprilnotes:
[AcrisisintheRussianopposition?(Kasyanov)
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/crisisinrussianoppositionastwowithdrawfromelectionprimaries/565739.html
TwoofRussiasleadingoppositionpoliticiansannouncedWednesday13ApriltheirwithdrawalfromelectionprimariesbeingorganisedbythePARNASdemocraticcoalition.
IvanZhdanov.HeadofLawatAlexeyNavalny'sAnti-CorruptionFoundation(FBK)andIlyaYashin,PARNASpoliticalpartydeputychairman,announcedtheywouldnotbestandingwithinthespaceof24hours.
TheirreactioncomesafterPARNASleader,MikhailKasyanov,announcedhisrefusaltowithdrawfromthelistofproposedcandidates,despiterecentinvolvementinawell-publicisedscandal.
KasyanovwastheonlypoliticiantobeincludedonthelistofpotentialcandidatessincelastDecemberwhenthecoalitionwasformed.
IthinkthatKasyanov'spositiondestroysvoters'trustandscrapsusfromtheabilitytobeaneffectiveoppositioncoalition,Yashinsaid.
Zhdanov'scitedsimilarreasonstoYashin,butaddedthathewastoobusywithotherpoliticalprojects.
Thelistwouldhavebeenmuchmorerespectableifitsleaderwaselectedatprimaries.Opennessisthecorevalueoftheopposition,ZhdanovtoldTheMoscowTimes.Hestressedthatthewithdrawalwashispersonaldecisionandthathehadn'theardofanybodyelseplanningtoquittheircandidacy.
ThedecisiontogiveKasyanovtheprivilegeofheadingthelistofcandidateshadbeencontroversial.Thecoalitionwascriticisedforbeingnon-democraticandforgivingtheKremlinachancetoconcentrateanti-oppositionsmearsonasinglefigure.
Thatchancewasusedwhenstate-controlledtelevisionchannelNTVairedgrainyvideofootageofMikhailKasyanovandacolleague,NataliaPelevina,inbedtogether.Theyareheardcriticizingtheiroppositioncolleagues.
Givensuchcircumstances,wewouldbeansweringidioticquestionsaboutwhosleptwithwhomandwhocalledsomeonenamesinbedthroughoutthecourseofthewhole[StateDumaelection]campaign,Yashinexplained.
KasyanovtoldKommersantFMradiothathesawnoproblemswithYashin'schoice.It'shisdecisionandhehastherightforanydecisionandit'shisopinion,hesaid.
UnlikeYashin,Zhdanovhassaidthathisdecisionhadnothingtodowiththepublicationofthefilm.ThelawyerbelievethatPARNASstillhavegoodchancesattheparliamentaryelections,becausethere'snoalternative.
Democraticcoalitionmembersnowhavetochoosebetweenbadandworse,thepoliticalexpertAlexeyMakarkintoldTheMoscowTimes.
MakarkinbelievesthefilmscandalwillpushoppositionmembersawayfromKasyanov.Healsosaidthatvoteractivityattheprimariesappearedtobelow,andthatcancellingthemcouldbeanoption.
Atthesametime,Makarkinalsobelievesthatthescandalwillnotresultinanydramaticchanges:PARNASwillsurvive,andYashinwillprobablyentertheelectoralcampaigninasingle-memberdistrict.
Thesituationingeneralisaplustoeveryone,notaminus,GrigoryMelkonyants,co-chairofGolos,anindependentelectionsmonitor,toldTheMoscowTimes.Itisgoodwhensuchthingspassbeforetheelectioncampaign.Whenitstarts,nothingwilldistractthem.Itseemslikethey[theopposition]areat
astagewhentheyneedtoclarifytherelationship. ]
Fromthe15Aprilnotes:
[BelkovskiyonNavalniy/Yashinvs.Kasyanov
http://echo.msk.ru/programs/beseda/1747696-echo/
KasyanovsaysheplansonkeepingthefirstspotonthePARNASpartylistforhimself,scandalornoscandal,andregardlessoftheresultsoftheprimaries.SoYashinhasrefusedtotakepartinthepartyprimaries.Belkovskiy:whatweareseeingshowsthecontradictionsandconflictswithinthenon-systemic
opposition.ButthiswontmeanthetotalcollapseofthedemocraticcoalitionitsoftoomuchvaluetopeoplelikeKasyanovandNavalniy.YashinrepresentsNavalniysteam,whichwantstoseizecontroloftheoppositionandtakechargeofitandthereisareasontheythinkthatway.Acertainpartof
PARNASsassets,regionalstructures,considerNavalniytheirleadermorethanKasyanovandviewNavalniyashavingbetterpoliticalprospects.ThestruggleforpowerbetweenKasyanovandNavalniyiscertainlydamagingtothenon-systemicoppositionandcouldcauseasplitatatimetheoppositionneeds
toconsolidateWeunderstandthattheKremlinwilllikelynotallowalargemajorityofoppositioncandidatesintotheDumaandundersuchconditions,consolidationbecomesevenmoreimportant.Theresalsoabattlegoingonforthepolitical-morallegacyofBorisNemtsov.AlotofPARNASactivistsstill
considerhimasamoreauthoritativefigurethanKasyanov.IfNavalniyandYashincanconvinceactiviststhattheyrepresentNemtsovslegacybetterthanKasyanov,thenthatwouldbeatrumpcardinthestruggleovertheparty.
BelkovskiysaysheagreesthatNavalniyhasbetterprospectsasaleaderthanKasyanov,butmorallyhesupportsKasyanovonecantuseKremlinprovocationsasabasisforinfightingintheopposition]
NovayaGazeta(http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/72887.html)reportsthatNavalniysProgressPartyandVladimirMilovsDemocraticChoicepartyhaveannouncedtheirwithdrawalfromacoalitionwithKasyanovsPARNAS.Thepartiescouldnotreachagreement
onproceduresfortheprimaries,onformingapartylist,oronwhetherKasyanovshouldhavethe#1spotonthepartyelectorallist.Apartfromthat,KasyanovhasbeenaccusedoffailingtofinancepreparationsfortheelectionsElectorally,thissignifiescollapse.Without
Navalniyandhispeople,PARNASdoesntevenhaveatheoreticalchanceofbreakingthe5%barrierintheDumaelection.ButitsevenworseforNavalniyandcompanyandtheirunregisteredparty,whichcanttakepartinelectionswithoutcollectingsignaturesItfollowsthat
NavalniywilllikelysoondeclarethattheelectionsareashamandtheoppositionshouldboycottthemWhatthisallmeansisthatNavalniysteamisnotreadytotakepartinpolitics.ItshighpointwastheMoscowmayorselectionin2013WecanonlyhopethatYabloko,
whichistryingtoformitsowncoalition,doesnotrepeatthemistakesofPARNASLeonidVolkovoftheProgressPartysayshewouldbesurprisedifPARNASgarners1%ofthevoteinSeptemberLyubovSobol,alsooftheProgressParty,saysthateventhoughherparty
haswithdrawnfromthecoalition,candidatescanstillrunforindividualmandatesandshewillruninaMoscowdistrictDemocraticChoicesMilovsaysthemainargumentwasaboutKasyanovas#1onthepartylistwithouthavingtotakepartinprimaries.Kasyanovwas
namedpartychairmanbecauseofadesiretoholdthecoalitiontogether,buthehasnotbeenfulfillinghisobligationsasleaderbuthe(Kasyanov)couldstillcomearoundandchangehismindaboutcooperation.DemocraticChoicecandidatescanstillcompeteforsingle
mandatedistricts
Consumerconfidenceatalowpoint
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russian-consumer-confidence-falls-to-historic-lows/567532.html
ConsumerconfidenceinRussiafellto63pointsinthefirstquarterofthisyearonNielsen'sConsumerConfidenceIndex,thelowestlevelsincerecordsbeganin2005,theKommersantnewspaperreportedFriday.
Inthesameperiodlastyear,theindexstoodat72points,thenewspaperreported.
AccordingtoNielsen,arecordlownumberofpeoplenowhaveanyextramoneyaftercoveringbasicneedsandbills.
Atthesametime,theshareofRussiansforcedtoslashtheirspendingroseto76percentinthefirstquarteroftheyear.
Fifty-ninepercentofRussiancitizensnowhavetoabstainfromentertainmentexpensesand61percentputoffthepurchaseofnewclothes.Fifty-twopercentofRussiansswitchedtocheaperfoodproducts,accordingtodatafromNielsen.
AsRussiacontinuestoexperienceeconomicrecession,therealwagesofRussiansshrank9.5percentin2015.Thisyear,thetrendcontinuedwith3.9percentinrealwagesyear-on-yearinthefirstquarterof2016,accordingtotheRosstatstatestatisticsservice.
ThecontinuingdeclineinrealincomesmeansthatRussians'consumeractivitywillremainlowinthenearfuture,DilyaraIbragimova,anassociateprofessorattheHigherSchoolofEconomics'sociologydepartment,toldthenewspaper.
DeputyPrimeMinisterOlgaGolodetssaidFridaythatRussiahasbeenhitbyaconsumercrisis.Fifty-onepercentofpurchaseditemsinFebruarywerefoodproductswhiletheconsumptionofcertaintypesoflightindustryhasfallenby20percent,accordingtoGolodets.
NODactivistsattackparticipantsatMemorialevent
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/human-rights-event-attacked-in-moscow/567472.html
GuestsataneventorganizedbyRussia'sleadinghumanrightsgroupMemorialhavebeenattackedbynationalistactivists,theorganization'sexecutivedirectortoldtheMoscowTimesThursday.
Participantsattheawardceremonyforhigh-schoolstudentswerepeltedwithdisinfectantandammonia,saidexecutivedirectorYelenaZhemkova.
"MemorialwasholdingaveryimportanteventatDomKinoincentralMoscow,buttheguestsandtheparticipantswereattackedbyagroupofaggressiveprotesterswhothrewgreendisinfectantandammoniaatthemastheytriedtoenterthebuilding,"Zhemkovasaid.
TheprotestsinfrontoftheDomKinobuildingwereorganizedbythePeople'sLiberationFrontnationalistmovement(NOD),localmediasourcesreported.
Roughly20NODactivistscongregatedoutsideDomKino,holdingbannersreading"wedon'tneedalternativehistory,"andshouting"fascists."
AmongthoseattackedwasacclaimedRussiannovelistLyudmilaUlitskaya.Thewriter,whoheadedthejuryatthecompetition,wassprayedinthefacewithgreendisinfectant.
Anumberofinternationalguestswerealsopresent,includingtheGermanambassadortoRussiaRdigervonFritsch,theNovayaGazetanewspaperreported.Theactivistsalsoattackedtherepresentativefromthesimilarschool'shistorycontestinNorway.
TheNOD'syouthwingcoordinatorMariaKatasonovadeniedtheattackonUlitskayaintheinterviewwiththeGovoritMoskvaradiostation"Wedon'tknowwhosprayedUlitskaya,"shesaid."Ionlysawherturnaroundandshewasalreadycoveredingreendisinfectant.
Thehigh-schoolcompetition,"Apersoninthehistory:RussiaintheXXcentury"isanannualeventbyMemorial.Studentsfromaroundthecountryareencouragedtoresearchlocalhistorybystudyinghistoricalarchives,interviewingwitnessesandexaminingnewspapersandother
sources.
WinningstudentsaretheninvitedtoMoscowwheretheyattendanumberofplacesandeventsorganizedbyMemorial.TheculminationoftheirMoscowprogramistheawardsceremony.
Policearrivingonthescenesaidthattheprotestwasaone-manpicketandtooknoaction.
"Usually,evenit'sarealone-manprotest,thepolicewillcomeandputseverybodyinthebackofavan.Thistimenothinghappened,eventhoughourcollegehadaneyeinjury,"Zhemkovasaid.
TheexecutivedirectorsaidthatalthoughtherehadbeenpreviouslyprotestscarriedoutduringpreviousMemorialevents,itwasthefirsttimecounter-activistshadbeensoaggressive.
TherewasapickethadbeencarriedoutinfrontoftheSakharovCenterwhereMemorialheldanexhibitiondedicatedtothefirstChechenwarlastmonth,butnoonehadbeenattacked,shesaid.
Contacttheauthorata.bazenkova@imedia.ru.FollowtheauthoronTwitterat@a_bazenkova.
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/kremlin-calls-attack-on-human-rights-event-hooliganism/567490.html
TheKremlin'sspokesmanDmitryPeskovhascalledanattackonahumanrightseventbynationalistactivistshooliganism,theTASSnewsagencyreportedFriday.
Itishooliganism,itisadisgrace,Peskovsaid.Those,whohidebehindtheSt.Georgeribbon,discreditit.Hestressedthatitwasabsolutelyunacceptable,PeskovwasquotedassayingbyTASS.
OnThursday,activistsfromthePro-KremlinPeople'sLiberationFrontnationalistmovement(NOD)attackedtheawardceremonyforhigh-schoolstudentswhohadparticipatedinahistorycontest,organizedbytheprominenthumanrightsgroupMemorial.
TheNODactivistsgatheredinfrontoftheDomKino,wheretheMemorialceremonywasbeingheld,shoutinginsultsandsprayinggreendisinfectantandammoniaattheeventattendeesastheytriedtoenterthebuilding.
Amongthoseattackedwerethecompetitionparticipants,organizers,foreignandRussianguestsandacclaimedRussianwriterLyudmilaUlitskaya,theheadofthecompetition'sjury.
AccordingtorepresentativesofMemorial,whenpolicearrivedatthescene,theyfailedtotakeanyactionagainsttheNODactivists.
LateronThursday,Moscowpoliceannouncedthatoneoftheattackershadbeendetained,theInterfaxnewsagencyreported.Hehasbeenchargedwithpettyhooliganismandmayfaceupto15daysinprison.
Comment:Recalltheitemwesawinthe25AprilnotesondynamicandhermeticauthoritarianregimesandtheKremlinbeinguncomfortablewithanyspontaneousactions,evenbygroupsthatarepro-vlast.
LavrovonRussiasaimingforselfsufficiency
LavrovalsohadsomecommentsonNATOandSweden,NATOandRussia
http://www.rt.com/news/341378-lavrov-sweden-nato-russia/
NATO expansion to the East enables the alliance to deploy forces next to Russias borders and then accuse Moscow of carrying out dangerous maneuvers near the alliances bases, the Russian foreign minister told a Swedish media outlet.
This is a meanspirited attempt to turn the issue on its ears, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov told Swedens Dagens Nyheter daily.
NATO military infrastructure is inching closer and closer to Russias borders. But when Russia takes action to ensure its security, we are told that Russia is engaging in dangerous manoeuvres near NATO borders. In fact, NATO borders are getting closer to Russia, not the opposite, the Russian FM
pointed out.
Speaking about NATO as the EUs principal military alliance, Lavrov said its existence is an objective reality and therefore Moscow is ready for dialogue.
NATO deployments of AMD bases and troops near Russian borders have already violated the basic 1997 NATORussia Founding Act, the foreign minister noted. Today, NATO is different from what it used to be and Russia pays no attention to its soothing words, but instead reacts to
the alliances military potential massed near Russias borders, Lavrov added.
Russia is not interested in neutral Sweden entering NATO, yet If Sweden decides to join NATO, we (Russians) wont think that it intends to attack Russia, Lavrov said. However, he also mentioned that alliance infrastructure in Sweden would definitely arouse a reaction from the Russian
military.
Every state is free to choose its selfdefense strategy in consideration of its national interests, and its better to ask the people before making this decision, according to the Russian foreign minister.
The answer [why NATO needs new member states] is simple NATO seeks to cover as much geopolitical space as possible and surround the countries that somehow disagree with NATO, such as, for example, Russia and Serbia."
Selfreliance is Russias strategic course now
Russian foreign policy is subject to change because sanctions against Moscow have made business as usual absolutely impossible. Russia will have to rely on its own resources first and foremost, the minister told the Dagens Nyheter daily.
From now on we have to look to ourselves. We have everything we need for that. We are a selfsufficient country, Sergey Lavrov said, adding that Russians are prepared to work hard to avoid having to buy anything abroad.
This is a strategic course. It has nothing to do with selfisolation, Lavrov said. He expressed hope that when and ifWestern partners opt to revert to normal behavior, this would only mean additional opportunity for development and cooperation. But in basic things were going to paddle
our own canoe.
The EU will mature and come to an equitable respectful dialogue without ultimatums, Lavrov said, expressing hope that the ongoing situation in RussiaEU relations wont last long, because the European Union and Russia are not capable of competing in the modern world on their own.
Were destined to live and cooperate together, the Russian foreign minister stated.
Lavrov added that Moscow will speak with other European capitals as equal partners and defy any ideas prescribed by the EU to be taken for granted.
He went on to say that not everyone in Europe is happy with the outcome of the antiRussian sanctions, and it is no secret Brussels will have to discuss the issue.
Lets hope that common sense prevails, Lavrov said, noting that the European Union, of course, will head in the direction that Germany wishes to go.
Sergey Lavrov reiterated that Russia would rely on generating internal resources to avoid being dependent on Europe, which is currently putting politics ahead of economic expediency.
Senttime: 05/04/201609:23:45AM
FW:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE][TALESOFASHTON]UA/TODAY:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineFOX:CartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesBBC:CartertellsRUtostop'nuclearsabre-
Subject:
rattling''........[TALESOFTHEDON]Trump'sMan...
Sent:Tuesday,May03,20164:03PM
Subject:Fwd:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE][TALESOFASHTON]UA/TODAY:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineFOX:CartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesBBC:CartertellsRUto
stop'nuclearsabre-rattling''........[TALESOFTHEDON]Trump'sMan...
Date:Tue,May3,2016at6:59PM
Subject:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE][TALESOFASHTON]UA/TODAY:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineFOX:CartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesBBC:
CartertellsRUtostop'nuclearsabre-rattling''........[TALESOFTHEDON]Trump'sManManafort:AQuietAmerican(withstrangefriends)CK/AIM:Don-VladBud-shipcouldbe'campaign-
threatening'....
From:hunter@
Subject:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineCartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesCartertellsRUtostop'nuclearsabre-rattling'
To:
To:18:46May.3,2016
U.S.DefenceSecretarysaysheplanstovisitUkraine
U.S.andEuropewillmaintainalongtermpartnershipwithUkraineinsecuritysector,AshtonCarterhopes
DefenceSecretaryAshCarter(APPhoto)
DefenceSecretaryAshCarter(APPhoto) U.S.SecretaryofDefenceAshtonCartersaysheplanstovisitUkraineandissettocontinuetheircooperationinthemilitary
field.
HealsosaidthathepreviouslymetwithhisUkrainiancounterpartStepanPoltorak,andintendstodevelopthese
contacts,reportstheRussianstate-ownednewsagencyTASS.
0Facebook "Their(Ukraine's)DefenceMinister(StepanPoltorak)isaverygoodprofessional,"saidthePentagonchief."Icooperate
withhimagreatdeal,ImethimafewtimesinEuropeandIhopetogothere(toUkraine)."
Twitter
0Google+
Theministerdidnotspecifythedate.
ReadalsoRussiatopsUSsecuritythreatchallenges:DefenceChiefAshtonCarter
Sendviaemail
CarteralsosaidtheU.S.helpsUkrainetrainandequipitsarmedforcesunderthespecialprogram,whichisperformedin
theYavorivshootingrange(westernUkraine).
Accordingtohim,theUnitedStates"isalsopushingitsEuropeanalliestoensuretheydomoreinthisregard."
"IthinkthatweandEuropewillmaintainalongtermpartnershipwithUkraineinthefieldofsecurity",saidtheAmerican
Minister.
FOXNEWS/SECRETARYOFDEFENSE
CartersendsmessagetoMoscow:USreadyto
'defendourallies'

ByLucasTomlinson Facebook253Twitter410livefyre2750EmailPrint

PublishedMay03,2016

FoxNews.com

STUTTGART,GermanyDefenseSecretaryAshCarter,inGermanytousherinanewU.S.militarycommanderforEurope,usedtheopportunityTuesdayto
sendabluntwarningtoMoscownottoprovoketheNATOallianceafterrecentencountersintheairandonthehighseas.
"WedonotseektomakeRussiaanenemy.Butmakenomistakewewilldefendourallies,therules-basedinternationalorder,andthepositivefutureitaffords
us,"CartersaidattheU.S.military'sEuropeanCommandinStuttgart,Germany.
CarterexpressedadesirenottostartanewColdWarwithRussiaora"hot"one.
ButhesaidRussiaseeksto"erode"thepeacefulorderEuropeandtherestoftheWesthaveenjoyedsincetheendoftheColdWar.
Carter,invowingtheU.S.woulddefenditsallies,warnedRussiaisincreasingitssubmarinepatrolstotheNorthAtlantic.Hedidnotspecificallymentionthe
recent"barrelrolls"byRussianjetsoverU.S.militaryaircraftinthepastfewweeksbutaccusedRussia'sleadersof"nuclearsaber-rattling"andputtingtheworld
atriskintheprocess.
TheObamaadministrationsresolvetotakeonRussiaremainsamatterofdispute.PresidentObamawascaughtonanopenmicrophonein2012assuringthen-
PresidentDmitryMedvedevhedhavemoreflexibilityontheissueofmissiledefenseaftertheelection.Russia,underVladimirPutin,laterdefiedU.S.warnings
withitstakeoverofCrimeaandmilitaryinvolvementinEasternUkraineandhascomplicatedU.S.effortsinSyriawithitsinterventionthere.
CarterthisweektraveledtoGermanyfortheinstallationofGen.CurtisScaparrottiatthehelmofU.S.EuropeanCommand.Therearemorethan60,000U.S.
soldiersstationedinEurope,significantlylessthanduringtheColdWar,whenmorethan200,000soldierswerestationedmostlyinGermany.
CartersaidTuesdaythePentagonhaspledged$3.4billioninnextyear'sbudget,quadruplethespendingfromlastyear,tobeefupNATO'seasternflankwithits
allies.CartersaidanewarmoredbrigadewouldbeheadingtoEurope,thoughofficialstoldFoxNewsitwouldnotarriveuntiltheendof2017.
CartersaidtheincreaseinfundswouldsupportanadditionalU.S.AirForceF-15squadron,moreU.S.specialoperationsforcestotraininEurope,andmore
submarine-huntingaircrafttocounterincreasedRussiansubmarineactivity.
"Russiasaggressiveactionsonlyservetofurtheritsisolation,anduniteouralliance,"hesaid.
Russiadoesnotseeitthatway.OfficialsinMoscowbelievetheUnitedStateshasviolateda1997treatythatsaysNATOcannotamassforcesalongtheborder
withRussia.Thetreatydoesnotspecifyhowmanyforcesarepermissible.
EnroutetoGermanyonMonday,CartertoldreporterstheUnitedStatesisconsideringputtingmoreforcesinEasternEurope,butiswaitingtoconsultwith
NATOofficialsbeforeanyfinaldecisionsaremade.Cartersaiduptofourbattalions,orsome4,000soldiers,couldbeaddedtoEasternEurope.
AhandfulofNATOdefenseofficialswillbeonhandforacounter-IslamicStatemeetingWednesdaywithCarterinStuttgart.
DespitesometoughtalkaboutRussia,Carterindicatedheswillingtoworktogetherinthefuture:"WellkeepthedooropenforRussia.ButitsuptotheKremlin
todecide."
OneexampleCarterusedaboutpastU.S.-RussiancooperationwasMoscow'swillingnesstoallowtheUnitedStatesandNATOtouseasupplycorridorin
northernAfghanistanintheyearsfollowingthe9/11terroristattacksandthestartofcombatoperationsagainsttheTalibanandAlQaeda.
ThatcorridorhassincebeenclosedbyRussia.
Inhisremarks,theoutgoingU.S.commanderofEuropeanCommand,Gen.PhilipBreedlove,acareerfighterpilot,saidhiscareerisendingwhereitbegan,with
Russiainhissights.
"MycareerstartedhereinaColdWartryingtokeepthepeace.IthinkmycareerisnowendingheretryingtopreventaColdWarandcontinuetokeepthe
peace,"hesaid.
Hisreplacement,Scaparrotti,wasaskedaboutRussianjetsbuzzingU.S.Navyshipsandaircraft,whenhewasonCapitolHillafewweeksagobeforetheSenate
ArmedServicesCommittee.
"ShouldwemakeanannouncementtotheRussians,thatiftheyplacethelivesofourmenandwomenonboardNavyshipsindanger,thatwewilltake
appropriateaction?"committeeChairmanJohnMcCain,R-Ariz.,asked.
"Ibelievethatshouldbeknown,yes,"Scaparrottisaid.
LucasTomlinsonisthePentagonandStateDepartmentproducerforFoxNewsChannel.YoucanfollowhimonTwitter:@LucasFoxNews
BBC
USaccusesRussiaofnuclearsabre-rattling,amidNatotensions
5hoursago
FromthesectionEurope
ImagecopyrightGetty
ImagesImagecaptionTheUSSDonaldCookwasbuzzedbytwoRussianjetsovertheBalticSealastmonth
USDefenceSecretaryAshCarterhasaccusedRussiaof"nuclearsabre-rattling"andofbeingintentonerodinginternationalorder.
HesaidheregrettedstrainedrelationswithMoscowbutsaidtheUShadto"prioritisedeterrence"onNato'seasternflank.
US-RussiantieshavebeenstrainedbytheUkrainecrisisandrecentmilitaryencountersintheBalticSea.
RussiahasaccusedNatoofthreateningitsnationalsecurity.
SpeakingduringaceremonyattheUSEuropeanCommandHeadquartersinGermany,MrCartersaidRussiawas"goingbackwardsintime".
ButMrCartersaid:"Wedonotseekacold,letaloneahotwarwithRussia."
Nuclearthreats:AnalysisbyJonathanMarcus,BBCdefencecorrespondent
MrCarter'swarningaboutRussia'snuclearsabre-rattlingisameasureofhowpoorrelationsarebetweenNatoandMoscow.
AtrootisRussia'sannexationoftheCrimeaanditsmilitaryoperationsineasternUkraine.ButMoscowseesNato'sresponse-awholeseriesofreinforcedexercisesinPolandandthe
BalticrepublicsalongwithadditionalUSarmourstock-piledinEurope-asyetanotherexpansionofthealliance'sactivitiestowardsitsownborders.
RussiahasexplicitlywarnedDenmarkthatitswarshipscouldbecomethetargetofnuclearstrikesifitjoinsNato'sballisticmissiledefencesystemandsimilarthreatshavebeenmadeto
NorwayandPoland.
Russiaissignificantlymodernisingitsnucleararsenal.IthasalsodeployedIskander-MnuclearcapablemissilestoitsKaliningradenclave.This,alongwithincreasinglyaggressiveRussian
airpatrols,isonlyencouragingNatotoenhanceitsowndeterrentcapability.
"WedonotseektomakeRussiaanenemy.Butmakenomistake,wewilldefendourallies,therules-basedinternationalorder,andthepositivefutureitaffordsus."
Headded:"Moscow'snuclearsabre-rattlingraisestroublingquestionsaboutRussia'sleaders'commitmenttostrategicstability,theirrespectfornormsagainsttheuseofnuclearweapons,
andwhethertheyrespecttheprofoundcautionthatnuclear-ageleadersshowedwithregardtobrandishingnuclearweapons."
MrCarteroutlinedplanstodeployathirdUSArmycombatbrigadeinEuropeinthecomingyear.
Hesaiditwaspartofa$3.4bn(2.3bn)initiativetoreassureNatoalliesofUScommitmenttotheirsecurityandtodeterRussianaggression.
"Wehaven'thadtoprioritisedeterrenceonNato'seasternflankforthepast25years,butwhileIwishitwereotherwise,nowwehaveto,"hesaid.
ImagecopyrightGetty
ImagesImagecaptionTheUSsaysitistodeploymoretroopstoEuropetoworkalongsideNatoallies
RelationsbetweenRussiaandtheWestdeterioratedafterRussiaannexedUkraine'sCrimearegionin2014.
UkraineandtheWesthaveaccusedRussiaofcovertlybackingpro-RussianrebelswhonowcontrolmuchofeasternUkraine.Russiastronglydeniestheclaims.
Lastweek,theUSaccusedaRussianjetfighterofaggressivelyinterceptingaUSAirForcereconnaissanceplaneovertheBalticSea.ItsaidtheRussianjethadperformedabarrelroll.
Earlierlastmonth,twoRussianplanesflewclosetoaUSguidedmissiledestroyeralmostadozentimesintheBaltic.
Russia'senvoytoNatosaidthedestroyerhadsailedclosetotheRussianenclaveofKaliningradinanattempt"toexercisemilitarypressureonRussia".
Correspondentssaysuchencountershaveraisedfearsofafull-onconfrontation,beitdeliberateoraccidental,betweentheworld'stwogreatmilitarypowers.
---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:<sbabs52@verizon.net>
Subject:TheQuietAmerican
To:DOCKER50@aol.com,ozwdmytrenko@gmail.com,peterterr@yahoo.com,peterpolny@aol.com,PWolowacz@aol.com,wwilczak@msn.com,hryckowianstan@yahoo.com,
waz2102@caa.columbia.edu,george.woloszyn@rhmr.com,Andrika16@aol.com
InterestingreadingmaterialtyingManafortwithUkraine'sOligarchsandYanukovich,andManafort'sconnectionwithTrumpgoingbackto
theAtlanticCitycasinodays.(PublishedbySlateMagazine04-28-16)
TheQuietAmerican
PaulManafortmadeacareeroutofstealthilyreinventingtheworldsnastiesttyrantsasnoble 6.3k
defendersoffreedom.GettingDonaldTrumpelectedwillbeacinch. 1.1k
ByFranklinFoer 584
DonaldTrumpspoliticalstrategistPaulManafort,left,withformerpresidentialcandidateBenCarsonatacampaignreceptiononApril21in
Hollywood,Florida.
JoeRaedle/GettyImages
Mar-a-Lago,DonaldTrumpspalace,isimpressivebythestandardsofPalmBeachlesssowhenjudgedagainsttheabodesoftheworldsautocrats.Itdoesnt,
forinstance,quitecomparewithMezhyhirya,thegildedestateofdeposedUkrainianPresidentVictorYanukovych.Trumpmayhave33bathroomsandthreebomb
shelters,buthismansionlacksaherdofostrich,agalleonparkedinapond,andasetofgoldengolfclubs.Yetthetwopropertiesarelinked,notjustinostentatious
spirit,butbythepresenceofoneman.TrumpandYanukovychhavesharedthesamepoliticalbrain,anoperativenamedPaulManafort.
Ukrainiansusethetermpoliticaltechnologistasafavoredsynonymforelectoralconsultant.TrumpturnedtoManafortforwhatseemedatfirstatechnicaltask:
Manafortknowshowtobullwhipandwheedledelegatesatacontestedconvention.Hesdoneitbefore,assistingGeraldFordinstiflingRonaldReagans
insurgencyattheGOPssummerclassicof1976.Intheconventionsthatfollowed,theRepublicanPartyoftenhandedManafortcontroloftheprogramand
instructedhimtostage-managetheshow.Heproducedthemorning-in-Americaconventionof1984andtheBobDolenostalgia-thonof1996.
GivenManafortsexperienceandskillset,itnevermadesensethathewouldbelimitedtosuchanarrowalbeitcrucialtaskasdelegateaccumulation.Indeed,it
didnttakelongbeforeheattemptedtoseizecontroloftheTrumpoperationmanagingthebudget,buyingadvertising,steeringTrumptowardateleprompterand
awayfromflaminghisopponents,appearingonairasaprimarysurrogate.
SomesawthehiringofManafortasdesperate,asTrumpreachingforarelicfromthedistantpastinthebelatedhopeofcompensatingforahaphazardcampaign
infrastructure.Infact,securingManafortwasacoup.Heisamongthemostsignificantpoliticaloperativesofthepast40years,andoneofthemosteffective.He
hasrevolutionizedlobbyingseveraltimesover,thoughheself-consciouslyrefrainsfrombroadcastinghisinfluence.Unlikehisoldbusinesspartners,RogerStone
andLeeAtwater,youwouldneverdescribeManafortasflamboyant.Hestaysinluxuryhotels,butordersroomserviceandchurnsoutmemos.Whenhedoes
venturefromhissuitefordinnerwithagroup,hellsitattheendofthetableandsaynexttonothing,givingtheimpressionthathereserveshisexpensiveopinions
forprivateconversationswithhisclients.Manafortisapersonwhodoesntnecessarilyshowhimself.Theresnothingegotisticalabouthim,saystheeconomist
AndersAslund,whoadvisedtheUkrainiangovernment.ThelateWashingtonPostcolumnistMaryMcGrorydescribedhimashavingasmooth,noncommittal
manner,thoughshealsonotedhisaggrievedbrowneyes.DespitehisdecadesofamassinginfluenceinWashingtonandotherglobalcapitals,hesneverbeen
thesubjectofafullmagazineprofile.Hedistributesquotestothepressatthetimeandplaceofhischoosing,whichpriortohisarrivalontheTrumpcampaign,was
almostnever.(Indeed,hedidnotrespondtorequeststocommentforthisstory.)
Hisworknecessarilyentailssecrecy.AlthoughhisclientlisthasincludedchunksoftheFortune500,hehasalsobuiltaboomingbusinessworkingwithdictators.
AsRogerStonehasboastedabouttheirnow-disbandedfirm:Black,Manafort,Stone,andKelly,linedupmostofthedictatorsoftheworldwecouldfind.
Dictatorsareintheeyeofthebeholder.ManaforthadaspecialgiftforchanginghowdictatorsarebeheldbyAmericaneyes.Hewouldrecastthemasnoble
heroesveneratedbyWashingtonthinktanks,delugedwithmoneyfromCongress.
PlayingtenniswithYanukovychatMezhyhiryamighthavebeentheculminationofManafortslongcareer.HespentnearlysevenyearscommutingtoKiev.Overthat
stretch,heremadeUkrainianpoliticsandhelpedshiftthecountryintoVladimirPutinssphereofinfluence.Itwasanimpressiveachievement,atleastaccordingto
theethicalcalculusthatgovernsManafortsworld.ButthenalongcameDonaldTrumpanotheroligarchindesperateneedofhisservices.
***
ThegenesisofDonaldTrumpsrelationshipwithPaulManafortbeginswithRoyCohn.ThatRoyCohn:JoeMcCarthysheavy-liddedhenchman,lawyertothe
Genovesefamily.Duringthe70s,TrumpandhisfatherhiredCohnastheirlawyertodefendthefamilyagainstahousingdiscriminationsuit.(Cohnaccusedthe
FedsofusingGestapo-liketactics.)ButCohnandTrumpbecamegenuinepals,lunchingattheFourSeasonsandclubbingtogetheratStudio54.ItwasRoy
CohnwhointroducedStoneandManaforttoTrump.
Duringthosediscoyears,StoneandManafortweretetheredtogether.TheywerebothkidsfromConnecticut,attendingcollegesinWashington,thoughthey
couldnthavebeenmoredifferent.Stonelovedattentionandgarnereditwiththeatricalflair.Hewasabadboy,soi-disant.AsastudentatGeorgeWashington
University,StonemoonlightedfortheNixoncampaignandgravitatedtoJebMagruder,deputydirectoroftheCommitteetoRe-ElectthePresident.Dirtytricks
camenaturallytoStone.HeassumedapseudonymandmadecontributionsonbehalfoftheYoungSocialistAlliancetooneofNixonspotentialchallengers.He
hiredspiestoinfiltratetheMcGoverncampaign.Stonewasntshyabouthishandiwork.Infact,hewasntshyaboutanything.Helovedtositforinterviewsand
vamp.StoneisabodybuildingfanaticwhoposedshirtlessintheNewYorker.Thephotocapturedhisimplantedhair,butnotthetattooofRichardNixononhis
back.
Manaforthadaverydifferentmentor.Hestudiedunderthefuturesecretaryofstate,JamesA.BakerIII,whowieldedhisknifewiththedisciplineofaMarineandthe
polishofaPrincetonian.ItwasagoodfitforManafort,whosharedhismentorspragmaticconservatismandhisthirstforpolitics.(Hisfatherspentsixyearsasthe
mayorofNewBritain,Connecticut,aRepublicanwhoflourishedinDemocraticterrain.)Baker,anavidcollectorofyoungtalent,hadmanagedGeraldFordsre-
electioncampaign.ThatswherehespottedManafortandanointedhimaidedecamp.WhenBakerneededhisownmanagerforhis1978campaigntobecome
attorneygeneralofTexas,hetappedManafort.TheexperienceofwhisperinginBakersearleftalastingimpression.PaulmodeledhimselfafterBaker,oneofhis
friendstoldme.
DespitehisYankeestock,ManafortranReagansSouthernoperation,theraciallytingedappealthatinfamouslybeganinPhiladelphia,Mississippi,thehamlet
wherecivilrightsactivistsweremurderedin1964.Thesuccessofthe1980campaigngaveStoneandManafortcachet.Moreimportant,theyhelpedrunReagans
transitiontopower.Theystockedtheadministration,distributingjobsacrosstheagenciesandaccumulatingowedfavorsthatwouldprovidethebasisfortheirnew
lobbyingbusiness.Theyopenedtheirdoorsin1981.
ManafortandStonepioneeredanewstyleoffirm,whatKStreetwouldcometocalladouble-breastedoperation.Onewingoftheshopmanagedcampaigns,
electingagenerationofRepublicans,fromPhilGrammtoArlenSpector.Theotherwinglobbiedtheofficialstheyhelpedtovictoryonbehalfofitscorporateclients.
Overthecourseoftheirearlyyears,theyamassedaraftofblue-chipbenefactors,includingSalomonBrothersandRupertMurdochsNewsCorp.
AnotherearlyclientwasDonaldJ.Trump.WhatTrumpwantedwashelpfendingoffpotentialrivalstohisAtlanticCitycasinobusiness.Heespeciallyfearedtherise
ofIndiangaming.Asthe2016campaignhasgraphicallyillustrated,Trumpdoesnttreatrivalsgently.Testifyingbeforeacongressionalcommitteein1993,he
beganwithhisroteprotestationsoffriendship.NobodylikesIndiansasmuchasDonaldTrump.Hethenproceededtoworrythatthetribeswouldproveunableto
fendoffgangsters.ThereisnowayIndiansaregoingtoprotectthemselvesfromthemob...Itwillbethebiggestscandalever,thebiggestsinceAlCaponeAn
IndianchiefisgoingtotellJoeyKillertopleasegetoffhisreservation?Itsunbelievabletome.
TrumppouredmoneyintoashellgroupcalledtheNewYorkInstituteforLawandSociety.ThegroupexistedsolelytopublishadssmearinghispotentialIndian
competition.Underdarkphotosofneedlesandotherjunkieparaphernalia,thegroupasserted,TheSt.RegisMohawkIndianrecordofcriminalactivityiswell
documented.(Itwasnt.)Arethesethenewneighborswewant?WeknowthatTrumpandStonewerebehindtheNewYorkInstitutebecauseGov.GeorgePataki
investigateditsdoings.HeslappedTrumpandStonewitha$250,000fineandrequiredthemtopubliclyapologizeforrunningtheads.
ManafortdidntowntheTrumpaccountatthefirm.Butoneofhisformerpartnerstoldmethathewoulddispenseadviceandpitchin,winningTrumpstrust.When
ManaforttookanapartmentinTrumpTowersin2006,hewouldkibitzwithhisoldclientwhentheydrunintooneanotherontheelevator.Trumpknewthisguywas
topdrawer,saysoneRepublicanoperative.
***
ManafortandStonebuiltaglamourfirm.TheBlackinitsnamebelongedtoCharlesBlack,whoasa25-year-oldlaunchedtheSenatecareerofJesseHelms.Later,
theyluredLeeAtwater,theevilgeniuswhowoulddevisetheWillieHortongambitforGeorgeH.W.Bush.Thefirmhadswagger.Intheearly80s,thepartnersspoke
openlytotheWashingtonPostoftheirannual$450,000salaries.AccordingtotheconsultantEdRollins,Blackwouldlaterboastthatthefirmhadschemedtogain
cartel-likecontrolofthe1988Republicanpresidentialprimary.Theymanagedallofthemajorcampaigns.AtwatertookBushBlackranDoleStonehandledJack
Kemp.AcongressionalstafferjokedtoareporterfromTime,Whyhaveprimariesforthenomination?WhynothavethecandidatesgoovertoBlack,Manafortand
Stoneandargueitout?
Manafortactivelyavoidedthespotlight,thoughhehadaknackforgarneringunwantedattention.Hetookonclientsandcausesthatevenmostofhiscolleagueson
KStreetconsideredoutsidetheusualbounds.Black,Manafort,andStonehiredalumnioftheDepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopmentthenusedthose
connectionstowin$43millioninmoderaterehabilitationfundsforarenovationprojectinUpperDeerfield,NewJersey.Localofficialshadnointerestinthegrants,
astheyconsideredtheshambleofcinderblockslongpastthepointofrepair.ThemoneyflowedfromHUDregardless,anddeveloperspaidManafortsfirma
$326,000feeforitshandiwork.Helaterboughta20percentshareintheproject.Twoyearslater,rentsdoubledwithoutanysignofimprovement.Conditions
remained,inMaryMcGroryswords,strictlyThirdWorld.Itwassuchanoutrageousscamthatcongressmenflockedtomakeaspectacleofit.Manafortcalmly
tookhisflaying.Youmightcallitinfluence-peddling.Icallitlobbying,heexplainedinonehearing.Thatsadefinitionaldebate.
Strangely,theHUDscandalprovedamarketingboonforthefirm.AnaidetoMobutuSeseSekotoldthejournalistArtLevine,Thatonlyshowshowimportantthey
are!Indeed,ManafortenticedtheAfricandictatortohirethefirm.Manyoftheworldsdictatorseventuallybecamehisclients.NameadictatorandBlack,Manafort
willnametheaccount,Levinewrote.(Levinespiece,publishedinSpy,featuredasidebarrankingtheethicalbehaviorofWashingtonlobbyists:ItfoundBlack,
Manaforttheworstofthebunch.)TheclientlistincludedPhilippinestrongmanFerdinandMarcos(witha$900,000yearlycontract)andthedespotsofthe
DominicanRepublic,Nigeria,Kenya,EquatorialGuinea,andSomalia.WhentheCenterforPublicIntegritydetailedthefirmswork,ittitledthereportThe
TorturersLobby.
Indeed,thefirmwasanall-purposeimage-buffingoperation.AstheWashingtonPosthasreported,Manafortcouldbookhisclientson60MinutesorNightline
andcoachthemtomaketheirbestpitch.HelobbiedCongressforforeignaidthatflowedtohisclientscoffers.Hemightevenprovideafewchoicepiecesof
adviceabouttampingdowndomesticcritics.Manafortunderstoodthemindsetofthedictatorwasntsodifferentfromhiscorporateclients.Accordingtoone
proposalunearthedbycongressionalinvestigators,thefirmboastedofpersonalrelationshipswithadministrationofficialsandpromisedtoupgrade
backchannelstotheU.S.government.
Thiswasntemptyrhetoric.OnaFridayin1985,ChristopherLehmanlefthisjobattheNationalSecurityCouncil.ThefollowingMonday,hewasflyingwith
Manafort,hisnewboss,tothebushofAngolatopitchtheChinese-trainedguerillaJonasSavimbi,whowantedcovertassistancefromtheU.S.tobolsterhis
rebellionagainstAngolasMarxistgovernment.SavimbibrieflyleftabattleagainstCubanassaultforcesandsigneda$600,000contract.
ThemoneyboughtSavimbiarevisedreputation.DespitehisclientsMaoistbackground,Manafortreinventedhimasafreedomfighter.Heknewallthetricksfor
manipulatingright-wingopinion.SavimbiwassenttoaseminarattheAmericanEnterpriseInstitute,hostedbytheanticommuniststalwartJeanneKirkpatrick,a
receptionthrownbytheHeritageFoundation,andanotherconfabatFreedomHouse.(KirkpatrickintroducedSavimbi,whoconscriptedsoldiers,burnedenemies,
andindiscriminatelylaidlandmines,asalinguist,philosopher,poet,politician,warrior...oneofthefewauthenticheroesofourtime.)
Manafortscampaignworkedwonders.HislobbyinghelpedconvinceCongresstosendSavimbihundredsofmillionsincovertaid.Indeed,everytimeAngola
stoodontheprecipiceofpeacetalks,Manafort,Blackworkedtogenerateafreshroundofarmsshipmentsthatmanyexpertsbelieveextendedtheconflict.Sen.
BillBradleywasbluntinassigningblame.WhenGorbachevpulledtheplugonSovietaidtotheAngolangovernment,wehadabsolutelynoreasontopersistin
aidingSavimbi.ButbythenhehadhiredaneffectiveWashingtonlobbyingfirm,whichsuccessfullyobtainedfurtherfunding.OrasArtLevineconcluded,Sothe
warlastedanothertwomoreyearsandclaimedafewthousandmorelives!Sowhat?WhatcountstoaWashingtonlobbyististheabilitytodeliveratangiblevictory
andspruceuphisclientsimage.
***
PaulManafort,afterTrumpdeliveredhisforeignpolicyspeechattheMayflowerHotelinWashington,D.C.,April27,2016.
JimBourg/Reuters
WhopaysPaulManafort?Thequestioncanbedevilishlydifficulttoanswer.HedoesntalwaysfiletheformsdemandedbytheForeignAgentsRegistrationAct.
Andhemaynotevenneedtodisclosewhocutshischecks.Thelawisporous,andovertimerevisionsintheacthavecreatedvariouswaysforlobbyiststohide
theirdeeds.LikeHenryKissinger,Manafortcanclaimthathemerelyconsultswithforeigngovernments,relievinghimofthelegalburdenofannouncinghis
benefactors.
MoneyarrivestoManafortcircuitously,sometimesthroughthedodgiestofroutes.Weknowthisbecauseheadmittedoneinstancetoinvestigators.Iftheresone
placeontheplanetinhospitabletoAmericanpoliticalconsultants,itisFrance.SowhenManafortwroteacampaignstrategyforEduoardBalladurspresidential
campaignin1995,hisrolewaskeptfromthepublic.Paymentstraveledbeneaththetable.Infact,theFrenchinvestigationrevealed,themoneycamefromagood
friendandoldclientofManaforts,aLebanesearmsdealercalledAbdulRahmanal-Assir.(ManaforttookAssirtoGeorgeH.WBushsinaugurationin1989Assir
onceloanedManafort$250,000,astheWashingtonPostreportedthisweek).
Manafortsfeewasasmallpieceofalargerkickbackscheme.Atleast$200,000cametoManafort,someofitviaaccountsinMadrid.Itwaspartofadeal
brokeredbyAssir.HearrangedforFrancetosellPakistanthreeAgostasubmarineswithtensofmillionsofeurosincommissionsreturningtothecoffersofthe
Balladurcampaign.Thescandal,knowninFranceastheKarachiAffair,hashoveredoverthecountryspoliticseversinceitbrokein2010.(TheEnglishex-
wifeofanotherFranco-LebanesearmsdealerinvolvedinlaffairrevealedtheManafortpaymentstoaFrenchjudge.)
ItwasnttheonlytimethatManafortreceivedmoneyfromthePakistanis.MichaelIsikoffhasreportedthatManafortwaspaid$700,000bytheKashmiriAmerican
CouncilostensiblyagrassrootsorganizationadvocatingagainstIndiancontrolofthecontestedborderland.Fundingforthegroup,however,camefromPakistani
intelligence.TheassistantU.S.attorneywhoinvestigatedtheKashmiriAmericanCouncilhascalleditafalseflagoperation.Manafortflewhisownfalseflagsin
thenameofhisstealthclient.In1993,hetraveledtoKashmirtoobtainfootageforavideohisfirmwasproducingonbehalfofthePakistanis.Theworkentailed
interviewingIndianofficials,whowouldhavenevergrantedaccessifManafortannouncedhistruepurpose.Togetinthedoor,heliedabouthisidentity,tellingthe
IndiansthatheworkedforCNN.Manaforthasdeniedthatheevermisrepresentedhimself,buthesooffendedtheIndiangovernmentthataspokesmanforits
foreignministryissuedapublicrebuke:Thewholethingwasobviouslyablatantoperationofproducingtelevisionsoftwarewithadeliberateandparticularlyanti-
IndianslantbylobbyistshiredbyPakistanforthisverypurpose.
***
AmongtheRepublicanestablishment,thereshopethatManafortwillprovetheturnaroundartistwhofixesthemessoftheTrumpcampaign,givingita
professionalismthatnobodycouldhaveexpected.Indeed,hehasatrackrecordofsuccessfullymakingovercandidates,thoughhisgreatestsuccesscameinan
entirelydifferentpoliticalecosystem.
In2005,theUkrainianoligarchRinatAhmetovsummonedManaforttoKiev.AhmetovhailedfromDonetsk,theRussian-orientedheavy-industryeastofthecountry.
Ahmetovhadcauseforpanic.Thebestpoliticalhopeforhisregion,and,moretothepoint,hisownbusinessinterests,wasagruffpoliticiancalledVictor
Yanukovych.Asateen,Yanukovychspentthreeyearsinprisonforrobberyandassault.Afterhisrelease,hewasagainarrestedforassault.Noneofthispast
historytheseyouthfulmistakes,whichheonceinstructedtheKGBtoexpungefromhisrecordslowedhisrisethroughthepoliticalranks.In2002,heserveda
briefstintasprimeministerinascleroticpro-Russiangovernment,miredincorruptionscandals.
WhenAhmetovsummonedManafort,in2005,hiscandidatehadsufferedacrushingdefeat.YanukovychhadjustrunforpresidentofUkraine,acampaignthat
involvedrampantfraudandthepossiblepoisoningofhisopponentwithdioxin.Hisbidendedinmassiveprotestsagainsthimandhiscrudeattemptstooverturn
thewillofthepeople.Theprotests,theOrangeRevolution,wereaburstofoptimismthatUkrainemighttranscenditspastandtakeitsseatasaEuropean-style
democracy.TheyshouldhavedestroyedYanukovychscareer.
FormerprimeministerofUkraineViktorYanukovich,onApril2,2004.
SergeiSupinsky/AFP/GettyImages
Yanukovychseemedahopelesscase.Akleptocraticgoon,apigwhowouldnttakelipstickishowoneAmericanconsultantwhoworkedinUkrainedescribed
him.YetManafortsawhope,aswellasahandsomepaycheck.DespiteYanukovychsSovietstyle,Manafortconsideredhimpoliticalclaythatcouldbemolded.He
sawrawtalentwhereothersdidntandheshapeditbrilliantly,oneformerStateDepartmentofficialtoldme.ManafortsetaboutgivingYanukovychanewlook:well-
tailoredsuits,shirtsandtiesthatmatched,ahaircutthattamedhisragingbouffant.Manaforttaughtthepolafewsimplelessonsthathelpedsanddownhisedges.
Heshowedhimhowtowavetoacrowd,ratherthankeephisarmslockedtohissides.Heinstructedhimtorefrainfromspeakingoffthecuff.Hetaughthimhowto
displayamodicumofempathywhenlisteningtothestoriesofvoters.Ifeelyourpain,Yanukovychwouldnowexclaimathisrallies.OneUkrainiancolumnist
cheekilyaskedhisreaderstoidentifythe10elementsofYanukovychralliesthatManaforthadimportedfromtheRepublicanconventionshedrun.
Thebuffedimagewasbornfromopinionsurveys,conductedbyateamofpollstersManafortbroughttoKiev.HefoundthatthehopeoftheOrangeRevolutionhad
curdledintofrustrationwiththegovernmentsincompetence.SoManafortcraftedanewimageofYanukovychbusinesslike,notlikablebutpersistentthatstood
asapragmaticantidotetothehaplessOrangeRevolutionaries.PeoplebelievedthatwhenYanukovychwasprimeminister,therehadbeenanordertothings,
BrianMefford,aUkraine-basedconsultanttoldme.Thatsthesentimenttheytriedtorunon.
Atthesametime,ManafortunderstoodhowtoaccentuatedivisionsintheUkrainianelectorate.HehadoverseenReagansSouthernstrategyheunderstoodthe
powerofculturalpolarization.HispollingshowedthatYanukovychcouldconsolidatehisbasebystokingsubmergedgrievances.Eventhoughtherewaslittle
evidenceofthemistreatmentofRussianlanguagespeakersbytheUkrainianstate,heencouragedhiscandidatetomakeanissueofimaginedabusestorally
theirbase.Tothesameend,heinstructedYanukovychtorageagainstNATO,whichhedidbycondemningjointoperationsthealliancewasconductinginCrimea.
WhenAmericanAmbassadorWilliamTaylorarrivedinKievin2006,hesummonedManaforttoameetinginhisoffice.Manafortwouldbecomeafixtureinthe
officesofAmericanambassadorstoUkraine,theU.S.governmentsprimaryconduittoYanukovychandthepro-Russiancamp.AsTaylortoldagroupofAmerican
democracyactivistsjustafterthemeeting,hehadaskedManaforttotampdownYanukovychscriticismsofthejointoperationsNATOwasconductingwiththe
Ukrainians.Theimplicationsofhisaskwereclear:TheinterestsofAmericansecuritywerehurtbysuchrhetoric.AmericantoAmerican,Imaskingyoutotalkto
him.Manafortscoffedatthenotion.HebluntlyannouncedthathewouldntaskYanukovychtodialbacktherhetoric.Itpolledtoowell.
Tobefair,ManafortwashardlytheonlyAmericaninYanukovychsorbit.BernieSandersconsultantTadDevinewenttoworkforhimin2009.Ukrainiansspent
heavilyinWashington,hiringasmallarmyoftop-drawerRepublicanlobbyists,includingformercongressmenVinWeberandBillyTauzin,tobolsterYanukovychs
imageinWashingtonandultimatelystaveoffAmericansupportforUkrainiandemocracy.ButManafortsetupthelargestshopinKiev,housedinawell-guarded
officejustoffIndependenceSquare.Duringelections,hisoperationswelledtosixAmericanconsultants,inadditiontoUkrainiantranslatorsanddrivers.He
procuredaspecialroleintheYanukovychcamp.AndersAslundtoldme,ManafortbecameYanukovychsclosestpoliticaladvisor.
***
In2005,JohnMcCainreceivedacallfromastafferontheNationalSecurityCouncil.Therewasaproblem,thestaffertoldthesenator.Themanorchestrating
McCainspresidentialcampaignwasPaulManafortspartner,alobbyistnamedRickDavis.Theadministrationwantedthesenatorshelpdialingbacktheduos
workinUkraine,twotopMcCainaidestoldme.BypromotingenemiesoftheOrangeRevolution,theywereunderminingAmericanpolicy.
ThecallcameafterManafortandDavishadalreadydrawnMcCainintotheireasternescapades.ItwasntjustUkraine.Thatyear,thepairhadconsultedonbehalf
ofpro-independenceforcesinthetinyprincipalityofMontenegro,whichwantedtoexitSerbiaandbecomeitsownsovereignrepublic.Onthesurface,thissounded
nobleenough,sonoblethatMcCaincalledMontenegrosindependencethegreatestEuropeandemocracyprojectsincetheendoftheColdWar.
AreportintheNation,however,showedthattheMontenegrincampaignwasntremotelywhatMcCaindescribed.Theindependenceinitiativewaschampionedby
afantasticallywealthyRussianmogulcalledOlegDeripaska.Deripaskahadparochialreasonsforpromotingindependence.HehadjustpurchasedMontenegros
aluminumindustryandintendedtobuybroaderswathsofitseconomy.ButhewasalsodoingthebiddingofVladimirPutin,onwhosegoodgracesthefateofall
Russianbusinessultimatelyhangs.TheNationquotedDeripaskaboastingthattheKremlinwantedanareaofinfluenceintheMediterranean.
ManafortandDavisdidntjustsnookerMcCainintotrumpetingtheirclientscausetheyendangeredhimpolitically,byarrangingaseriesofmeetingswith
Deripaska,whotheU.S.hadbarredfromenteringthecountrybecauseofhistiestoorganizedcrime.In2006,theysteeredMcCaintoattendadinnerwiththe
oligarchatachaletnearDavos,whereDeripaskaspeechifiedforthe40orsoguests.(TheWashingtonPostreportedthattheoligarchsentDavisandManaforta
thank-younoteforarrangingtoseethesenatorinsuchanintimatesetting.)Sevenmonthslater,ManafortandDavistookMcCaintocelebratehis70thbirthday
withDeripaskaonayachtmooredintheAdriatic.
NoteveryonewithintheMcCaincampfeltcomfortablewiththisrelationship.OnegroupofaidespushedhardforMcCaintofireRickDavisforsullyingthesenator
withthefirmsmuck.McCainintendedtodojustthat.ThesenatorhadbackedthecauseofUkrainiandemocracyandhecouldntstomachhistopaidesfirm
workingtoundermineit.Whatsmore,aideshadcometoMcCainwiththerumorthatDeripaskahadpurchasedanapartmentinTrumpTowerforDavisand
Manafort.Butinthemoment,McCainlosthisnerve,ashisaideshaverecountedtheepisode.Davissuppliedatear-filledsoliloquythatsavedhisjob.Ricksplea
somehowworkedandthatwastherootofthedivisionsthattoreapartthecampaign,oneofMcCainstopadviserstoldme.
ItwasjustunsubstantiatedhearsaythatDeripaskahadpaidforManafortsflat.YetMcCainaideswererighttosuspecttherelationship.ManafortandDaviswere
hungryfortheoligarchscash.AstheWashingtonPostreported,theyevenconvincedDeripaskatoinvestina$200millionprivateequityfundtheycreated.For
theirefforts,DeripaskapaidDavis,Manafort,andanotheroneoftheirpartnersa$7.5millionmanagementfee.Butapparentlytheydidntdoverymuchmanaging,
orinvestingeither.WhenDeripaskaaskedforanauditofthefundin2008,ManafortandDavisneverdeliveredone.Infact,accordingtoacomplaintthat
Deripaskafiledincourt,DavisandManafortprovidednoadditionalupdates.Deripaskawasdesperatetogethismoneybackwhich,thePostnoted,coincided
withManafortsstrangedisappearancefrompublicview.Atthetime,RogerStonewrotefriendsacrypticemailtitled,WheresPaulManafort?Hesupplieda
multiple-choicesetofanswersincludingWasseenchauffeuringYanukovycharoundMoscowandWasseenloadinggoldbulliononanArmyTransportplanefrom
aremoteairstripoutsideKievandtakingoffsecondsbeforeamobarrivedatthesite.
DeripaskawasnttheonlydubiousoligarchtoinvestwithManafort.HeorchestratedamajordealwithaUkrainiancalledDmitryFirtash.Afiremanandsoldier,
Firtashfoundwaystoflourishinthepost-Sovieteconomyasamiddleman,sellingnaturalgasbyhisownadmission,hedidsothankstohisconnectionswith
SeymonMogilevich,theRussianMafiasbossofbosses.
ButhiscrucialconnectionwastoVladimirPutin.FirtashsgrandschemewasdetailedinathoroughinvestigationpublishedbyReuters.Gazprom,theRussian
state-ownednaturalgasconglomerate,wouldselltoFirtashatadeepdiscount.Firtash,inturn,resoldthegastotheUkrainiangovernment,investingtheprofitin
fundingforpro-Putinpoliticians,includingVictorYanukovych.
ReuterswasbluntindescribingtheperniciouseffectofFirtashsdealings:
ItdemonstrateshowPutinusesRussianstateassetstocreatestreamsofcashforpoliticalallies,andhowheexportedthismodeltoUkraineinanattempt
todominatehisneighbour,whichheseesasvitaltoRussiasstrategicinterests.WiththehelpofFirtash,Yanukovichwonpowerandwentontorule
Ukraineforfouryears.TherelationshiphadgreatgeopoliticalvalueforPutin:Yanukovichendedupsteeringthenationofmorethan44millionawayfrom
theWestsorbitandtowardsMoscowsuntilhewasoverthrowninFebruary.
AfterFirtashmadebillionsoffthescheme,heandManafortpartneredtobuythesiteoftheoldDrakeHotelonParkAvenue.WithalongtimeTrumpfamilyaide
andthedeveloperArthurCohen,ManafortandFirtashhatchedagrandplan.TheycalledtheirprojecttheBulgariTower,anditwouldfeatureamall,privateclub,
andspa.Oratleastthatswhattheydescribedintheirplans.In2008,Firtashwired$25milliontoNewYorktobankrolltheproject.Accordingtocourtdocuments,
healsosetupa$100millioninvestmentfund,payingManafortandhispartnersa$1.5millionfeeformanagingthemoney.
ItwasagoodmomentforFirtashtoparkhiscashinManhattan.Hisarch-enemyYuliaTymoshenko,anoldnaturalgasbrokerherself,hadcometopowerayear
earlier.ShemovedaggressivelyagainstFirtash,whosecompanyshedescribedasawartonthebody.ShecutherowndealwithPutinforthesupplyofenergy,
eliminatingFirtashfromthebusiness.Andsheseizedhismassivestockpileofgas,effectivelynationalizingthesourceofhisfortune.
DefeatingTymoshenkothusbecameFirtashsprimarygoalinlife.HespentheavilyonYanukovychscampaignagainstherin2010.FortunatelyforFirtash,
Manafortwasonthejob.WhentheconsultantfirstarrivedinKiev,Yanukovychwasthesubjectofnearuniversalderision.ButhisyearsofgroomingYanukovych,and
perfectinghispoliticalmachinery,carriedhimtovictoryanarrowwinrootedinthemisstepsofhisopponents,butonethatwouldhaveneverhappenedwithout
skilledreinvention.Marvelingatthisaccomplishment,theUkranianjournalistMustafaNayeemwrotethatManafortwastheonlypersonwhoreallyadaptedto
Ukrainianpoliticalreality.
AssoonasYanukovychcametopower,herestoredFirtashsbusiness.Mostimportant,thenewgovernmentsettledalawsuitthatFirtashhadfiledobjectingto
Tymoshenkosseizureofhisgas.Aspartofthesettlement,thegovernmenthanded$3billionworthofnaturalgastoFirtash:hisoldstashplusanextrabillioncubic
metersofgasthrownintothedealascompensationforhistroubles.DerSpiegel,whichreviewedthetextofthesettlement,concluded,ViktorYanukovych,the
presidentofUkraine,servedthecommercialinterestsofanoligarchwithwhomhehasclosetiesattheexpenseofhisowncountry.And,indoingso,healsodid
Moscowafavor.
AsforBulgariTower,theprojectsputteredandshutteredinJanuary2009.YuliaTymosehnkodidntlikethesmellofthings.ShesuedManafortandFirtashfor
racketeeringintheSouthernDistrictofNewYork.Themoneykeptgoinginandout,herlawyerKennethMcCalliontoldme.Realestatewastheostensiblereason
forsendingmoneytoNewYork.Buttheyneverwantedtocloseontheproject,theywantedtokeepthecashliquid,soitcouldkeepgoingbacktoUkraine.Thesuit
neverhadmuchofachance,becauseitdidntofferenoughsupportingevidencetojustifyitsgrandioseclaim:thatManafortandFirtashwerelaunderingmoneyto
financehumanrightsabusesonagrandscale.Buthercaseraisedallmanneroftroublingquestions,andreinforcedanoldone:WhywouldPaulManafortso
consistentlydothebiddingofoligarchsloyaltoVladimirPutin?
***
ThatshardlyaquestiontobotherDonaldTrump,whohasprofessedhisownadmirationforPutinsbare-chestedleadership.Overmonthsoftweetsandtaunts,
DonaldTrumphasterrifiedmostoftheRepublicanestablishment,whoviewhimasabrand-shatteringelectoraldebacleinthemaking.ButthatspreciselywhyPaul
Manaforthasgravitatedtowardhim,andwhatmakestheclientsuchaperfectmatchfortheconsultant.
TopComment
Myfencingcontractortoldmetodayhe'svotingforTrump.Abitironicsincehe'sHispanicandhisfathercamefromMexico.Alsoironicthathe'sbuildingmea
fence.NowifIcanonlymakehimpayforit.More...
584CommentsJoinIn
Manaforthasspentacareerworkingonbehalfofclientsthattherestofhisfellowlobbyistsandstrategistshavedeemedjustbelowtheirnot-so-highmoral
threshold.Manaforthasconsistentlygivenhisclientsapatinaofrespectabilitythathasallowedthemtomigrateintothemainstreamofopinion,orcloseenoughto
themainstream.Hehasaparticularknackfortakingautocratsandpresentingthemasdefendersofdemocracy.Ifhecouldconvincetherespectableworldthat
thugslikeSavimbiandMarcosarefriendsofAmerica,thenwhynotdothesameforTrump?Oneofhisfriendstoldme,Hewantedtodohisthingonhometurf.He
wantedonelastshotatthebigprize.
Subject:GeneralsWarnofRussianAggressionAsTrumpCoziesUpToPutin
To:"Zaryckyj,Walter"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
GeneralsWarnofRussianAggressionAsTrumpCoziesUpToPutin
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/generals-warn-of-russian-aggression-as-trump-cozies-up-to-putin/
WhileRepublicanpresidentialcandidateDonaldJ.TrumpistalkingaboutcooperationwithRussia,TheWallStreetJournalisreportingthatoneofAmericastopgenerals,NATO
SupremecommanderGeneralPhilipBreedlove,issayingthattheUnitedStatesanditsallieshavetoimmediatelyaddressRussianmilitaryaggression.
WeseethatRussiahasnotacceptedthehandofpartnershipbuthaschosenapathofbelligerence,Breedloveisquotedbythepaperassaying.Weneedtoreaddresswherewere
heading.BreedloveisretiringasNATOsupremecommanderandcommanderofU.S.EuropeanCommand.
Bycontrast,TrumprecentlygaveaforeignpolicyaddressthatcompletelyignoredRussianaggressioninUkraine,leadingtoawarmreceptioninMoscowfortheRepublicancandidate.
ThecuriousomissionbyTrumpisoneofseveralactionsorstatementshehasmadeonRussianaffairsthatledJonathanChaittowriteanarticleforNewYorkmagazineentitled,WhyIs
DonaldTrumpaPatsyforVladimirPutin?AttemptingtoexplainTrumpsstatementsofsupportforRussianPresidentPutin,hecitedevidenceofRussiascampaigntocultivateinfluence
intheWestbycorruptingmembersoftheAmericanmediaandpoliticalEstablishment.
InadditiontoRussianaggressioninEuropeandtheMiddleEast,Breedlovessuccessor,ArmyGeneralCurtisScaparrotti,saysthatU.S.militaryleadersshouldkeepeverythingonthe
table,includingamilitaryresponse,ifRussiaengagesinmoremilitaryprovocationsdirectlyagainstU.S.forces.SuchincidentshaveincludedRussianfighterjetsharassingU.S.Navy
ships.
ThegeneralsaidthatPutinisdeliberatelytryingtobreakupNATO,apro-AmericanalliancethatTrumphassuggestedisobsolete.
InitsstoryonhowU.S.militaryleadersaregettingincreasinglyconcernedaboutRussiasaggressiveintentions,theJournalexplained,InthewakeofRussiasstealthyinvasionand
annexationofCrimea,theU.S.intelligencecommunity,inparticularmilitaryintelligence,cameunderwitheringcriticismforhavingfailedtoadequatelywarnpolicymakersandmilitary
leaders.
ThetermmilitaryintelligenceismostlyareferencetotheDefenseIntelligenceAgency(DIA),whoseformerdirector,Lt.Gen.MichaelT.Flynn,hascomeunderfireforhisclose
relationshipwiththeRussiaToday(RT)propagandachannel.
AIMwasthefirsttoreportthatFlynn,aftersteppingdownfromDIA,wenttoMoscowtoparticipateinthe10thanniversarycelebrationoftheMoscow-fundedandEnglish-language
channelknowntoitscriticsasKGB-TV.HesatatadinnertablewithPutinandRTeditor-in-chiefMargaritaSimonyan.
InamajorembarrassmentforFlynn,arecentarticleinPoliticobyMichaelCrowleycitedFlynnsrelationshipwithRTasthemostintriguingexampleofhowtheRussianshavegone
aboutrecruitingdisaffectedmembersoftheWashington,D.C.foreignpolicyestablishment.
ThetermrecruitingsuggestsusingFlynnforanti-Americanpropagandapurposes.
Crowley,seniorforeignpolicywriteratPolitico,saidthatFlynnsattendanceattheRTgala,whichalsoincludedremarksonworldaffairs,appearedtoinauguratearelationshipwiththe
networkpresumablyapaidone,thoughneitherFlynnnorRTansweredqueriesonthesubject.Flynnnowmakessemi-regularappearancesonRTasananalyst,inwhichheoftenargues
thattheU.S.andRussiashouldbeworkingmorecloselytogetheronissueslikefightingISILandendingSyriascivilwar.
InadditiontohisrelationshipwithRT,FlynnhasdescribedhimselfasaninformaladvisertoTrump,whoalreadyhasseveralpro-Russianaidesandadvisers.
WewerentfocusedonRussiawhenIcameinthreeyearsagobecausewewerestilltryingtocastaparadigmthatbroughtRussiaintothefoldofWesternvalues,saidBreedlove,inan
attempttoexplainwhythePentagonwascaughtoff-guardbyRussia.Hesaid,Russiachoseadifferentpathortheywereonthatpathandwedidntrecognizeit.
WhatheisdescribingisamassiveintelligencefailurethatcouldstemfromtheworkofagentsofinfluenceforRussia,oractualRussianspies.
Trump,however,continuestopreachcooperationwithRussia.
ThescopeoftheintelligencefailureregardingRussiawasaddressedrecentlybythechairmanoftheHouseIntelligenceCommittee,Rep.DevinNunes(R-CA),whoadmittedtoCNNs
JakeTapperonApril12thattheU.S.governmenthasbadlymisjudgedtheintentionsofPutinformany,manyyears.Hedeclared,Thebiggestintelligencefailurethatwehavehad
since9/11hasbeentheinabilitytopredicttheleadershipplansandintentionsofthePutinregimeinRussia.
AftertheRussianinvasionofGeorgiain2008,Rep.Nunesnoted,theU.S.continuedtoengagediplomaticallywiththeRussians,andwecontinuedtotalktotheRussians,andthenthey
invadedEasternUkraine.Wemissedthat,hesaid.Andthenwecompletelymissedentirelywhentheyputanewbase,anewbasewithaircraftintotheMediterranean,intoSyria.We
justmissedit.Wewereblind.
WhileTrumpsspeechwasgiventoanaudienceofforeignpolicyexperts,includingRussia'sambassadortoWashington,SergeyKislyakwhowassittinginthefrontrowtheformer
DIAdirectorspro-Moscowactionsandstatementsarealsogeneratingcontroversy.ThePoliticoarticleonFlynnsvisittoMoscowsaid,Atamomentofsemi-hostilitybetweentheU.S.
andRussia,thepresenceofsuchanimportantfigureatPutinstablestartledcurrentandformermembersoftheObamaadministration.
PoliticosMichaelCrowleyquotedaformerPentagonofficialassayingaboutFlynn,ItwasextremelyoddthatheshowedupinatuxedototheRussiangovernmentpropagandaarms
party.
EvenmoresignificantistheverdictdeliveredbyNewYorkmagazinesChaitregardingTrumphimself.HesaysthatwhileTrumpsstyleandbombasticstatementsonforeignpolicyand
otherareasareconsideredcontroversialbysome,themuchbiggerscandalmaybethatTrumpisVladimirPutinsstooge.ThestorycarriedtheimplicationthatTrumpisactinglikean
agentofinfluenceforPutinsRussia.
ThefailuresintheintelligencecommunityregardingRussiaandtheallegedpenetrationoftheWashington,D.C.foreignpolicyestablishmentbyRussianagentsseemliketopicsthatneedto
beaddressedbytheHouseandSenateIntelligenceCommittees.
Ultimately,however,theAmericanpeoplemayhavetoweightheevidence,sincepresidentialcandidatesdonthavetopassFBIbackgroundcheckstodeterminetheirsuitabilityforpublic
office.
ChaitdescribedtheTrump-Putinrelationshipascampaign-threatening,achargethatcouldhandtheNovemberelectiontoformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonifTrumpsecuresthe
GOPnomination,andifheisperceivedtobefriendlywithaU.S.adversaryorenemy.
IfTrumpisperceivedasanagentofinfluenceforPutin,theRepublicanPartycouldbegreatlyembarrassedandMrs.Clintoncouldcomeacrossasmoresolidinherknowledgeand
conductofforeignaffairs,despiteherclassifiedemailscandalandforeignpolicyfailuressuchasBenghazi.
CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontactedatcliff.kincaid@aim.org
Senttime: 04/28/201610:28:26AM
FW:INTHE"NOTFUNNYANYMORE"CATEGORY:PUTIN'SPLAYSINTHEUSPOLITICALARENA[RIGHT&LEFT][From
Subject:
Sent:Thursday,April28,20168:45AM
Subject:Fwd:INTHE"NOTFUNNYANYMORE"CATEGORY:PUTIN'SPLAYSINTHEUSPOLITICALARENA[RIGHT&LEFT][From
Subject:INTHE"NOTFUNNYANYMORE"CATEGORY:PUTIN'SPLAYSINTHEUSPOLITICALARENA[RIGHT&
LEFT][FromMH/POLITICO....PAULRG......ANTO/FAM.....MB/BBC......CLIFFK][TIMEFORTHE'USHROMADA'
TOADDRESSTHEISSUE]
From:MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>
Subject:didyouseethis?
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/donald-trump-2016-russia-today-rt-kremlin-media-vladimir-putin-213833
THEKREMLIN'SCANDIDATE
BACKWHENHEHOSTEDAPRIME-TIMETALKSHOWONMSNBC,EdSchultzdividedtheworldintoheroes
andvillains.TheheroesusuallyincludedDemocratslikeBarackObamaandHillaryClinton.The
villainsweremostRepublicans,andespeciallyDonaldJ.Trump.WhenTrumpobsessedover
Obamasbirthcertificateandacademiccredentialsin2011,Schultzbrandedhimaracist.When
Trumpflirtedwithrunningforpresidentthenextyear,Schultzridiculedhim.Whohasshownany
interestinDonaldTrumpbeingthenextpresidentoftheUnitedStatesotherthanDonaldTrump?
hefumed.Mr.Trump,stopembarrassingyourself!
AnotherbadguywasRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.Schultzdelightedinrippingconservatives
forwhathecalledtheirloveaffairwiththeRussianleaderandhisabilitytomakeObamalook
weakontheworldstage.TheyhateObamasomuchtheywillevenembracetheheadoftheKGB
...Putieistheirnewhero!Schultzsaidinone2013segment.Inanother,hesmuglyreminded
conservativesaboutPutinsnastyhumanrightsrecordandthewayhisrecklessbehaviorwas
cripplingRussia.Moregenerally,SchultzoftenframedGOPoppositiontoObamaasanti-
Americanorunpatriotic.
ThatwasallbeforelastJuly,whenMSNBCabruptlycanceledTheEdShowafterasix-yearrun
anddumpedthe62-year-oldprairiepopulistfromthenetwork.BythetimeSchultzresurfacedthis
January,hehadbeenreincarnatedinaverydifferentjournalisticform:asaprime-timehost,
reporterandpoliticalanalystforRTAmerica,theU.S.branchoftheglobalcablenetworkformerly
knownasRussiaToday,fundedbytheRussiangovernment.
GoneisthepraiseforObamaandClinton.Gone,too,arethemockingreferencestoPutie.And
gonearethejudgmentsaboutotherspatriotism.Schultzs8p.m.RTshow,TheNewswithEd
Schultz,nowfeaturesPutin-friendlydiscussionsaboutthefailingsofU.S.policyintheMiddle
East,AmericasbloateddefensebudgetandthefutilityofNATOstrategy.
EvenTrumpisgettinganewlookfromSchultz.SpeakingatvariouspointsonRTinrecent
months,SchultzhassaidthatTrumphastappedintoanangeramongworkingpeople,istalking
aboutthingsthepeoplecareabout,andeven,asSchultzrecentlydeclared,thatTrumpwould
easilybeabletofunctionaspresident.
Thosearestrangewordscomingfromanex-MSNBCliberalbetterknownforcastingTrumpasa
racistlout.ButRTisastrangeplace.ItstylesitselfasanedgyCNNorBBC,delivering
unvarnishednewsandcommentarywithamostlyhip,youngcast.Butjustunderthesurfaceisa
bought-and-paid-forpropagandavehicletryingtonudgeviewerstowardRussiassideofthestory
atatimewhenMoscowhasincreasinglybecomeaninternationalpariah,estrangedfromtheWest
overitsmilitaryaggressioninUkraine,Syriaandelsewhere,itselitessanctionedanditseconomy
strugglingwithisolation,decayinginfrastructureandcollapsingenergyprices.
Initsearlydays,RTmostlyofferedaKremlin-friendlydietofinternationalcoverage,feedingthe
Obama-bashing,America-in-declinenarrativewithC-listcommentatorswhocouldntgetanairing
elsewhereoncableTV.ButthatwasbeforeDonaldTrumpwhoseunlikelymutualadmirationfor
RussiasstrongmanpresidenthasbeenoneofthestrangersubplotsofthisAmericanpolitical
season.
TheblusterybillionairehaspraisedPutinasastrongleader,spokenofclosertieswithMoscowandmused
aboutwhetherNATOisobsolete.AttheforeignpolicyspeechTrumpdeliveredinWashingtononApril27,
theRussianambassadortotheUnitedStateswassittinginthefrontrow.AsTrumphasrisen,RThasgotten
muchmoreinterestedintheU.S.presidentialcampaign.TuneintoEdSchultzandhiscolleaguesthesedays
andyoullfindapresidentialracefeaturingHillaryClintonasamalevolentwarmonger,BernieSandersasan
insurgentheroandDonaldTrumpasaforeignpolicysavant.
AnetworkthatupuntilnowhasfoundlittletocelebrateaboutAmericahasfinallysettledonacandidateit
canbelievein.VladimirPutinsTVchannelisntjustcoveringthe2016campaign:Increasingly,itschoosing
sides.
***
TheRussianpresidentsfacewasafaintshadeofgreenashegazedupatagiantimageofLarryKing.It
wasDecember10,andVladimirPutinwastheguestofhonoratRTs10thanniversarydinner,atMoscows
MetropolHotelintheshadowoftheKremlin.Putinwasntgreenfromfoodpoisoningthehuecamefrom
lightingthatbathedtheroominthelimeofthenetworkslogo.
KingwasopeningtheceremoniesbyvideomessagefromLosAngeles,wherethe82-year-old
nowhostsadiminishedversionofhisoldCNNtalkshowforRT,joiningarosterofhoststhat
includesotherpast-their-primeU.S.celebritieslikeSchultzandJessetheBodyVentura,the
formerwrestlingchamp-turnedMinnesotagovernorwhoalsohasashowonRT.Inhistrademark
shirtsleevesandsuspenders,KingapologizedforhisabsenceandletPutinknowhedloveto
interviewhim.TheRussianleaderlookedvisiblypleased.
SittingnexttoPutinwasRTs36-year-oldeditor-in-chief,MargaritaSimonyan,araven-haired
formerstatetelevisionreporterwhotookoverRTwhenshewas25.Sheisafeistydefenderofher
network,oftenlashingoutagainstcriticsandtherearemanywhosayRTislittlemorethana
weaponinaRussianinformationwaragainsttheWest.SecretaryofStateJohnKerrycallsthe
networkapropagandabullhornforPutinithasbeenasubjectatHouseandSenateforeign
affairshearingsand,inmid-March,twoU.S.senatorsintroducedtheCounteringInformation
WarfareAct,whichisaimedinpartatthenetwork.SimonyanalmostseemstoenjoybattlingRTs
legionsofcritics.WhenaBuzzFeedreporteraskedherin2014aboutallegedKremlininfluence,
Simonyanunleashedamockingreply.[W]ejustreadthelatestKremlinpressreleasesoncamera.
Itismuchmoreefficientthatway,shewroteonRTswebsite,addingsardonicallythatthenetwork
unleash[es]theKGBonanyonewhodarestoleave.Andyet,Simonyandoesinfactkeepa
yellowtelephonewithnodialpadonherdesk,whichSimonyanconcededtoaTimereporterlast
yearisasecurelinetotheKremlin.
Inhisremarksatthedinner,Putinshowedobviousprideinthenetwork,sayingitseffortsreminded
himofthewayhardworkingRussiansailorsteartheshirtsofftheirbacks.Hemostdecidedly
wasntmentioningthathotlinetotheKremlinonSimonyansdeskorKerrysscathingdismissalof
hisbullhorn.Farfromit.Yourgreateststrengthispresentinginformationfreelyand
independently,Putintoldthecrowd,whosippedwineintranslucentchairsaroundwhite-clothed
tables.Wedonotcontrolyou.andwedonotmeddle,Putinsaid.HealsoboastedthatRThas
areachof700millionviewers,thoughheconcededtheyhadnoideahowmanypeopleactually
watchU.S.officialssaytheAmericanviewershipismuchlowerthanRTsestimateof8millionper
weekoncablesystemslikeComcast,TimeWarnerandDishNetwork.(Theyarealsoskepticalof
RTsclaimtohaveabudgetofonly$250millionworldwide.InMarch,RepublicanSenatorRob
PortmancitedreportssayingthecostofthenetworksWashingtonbureaualonecouldbe$400
million,thoughRTadamantlydeniesthat,andtheoriginalsourceofthereportisunclear.)
PutindidhintatRTsroleinthepoliticalwarRussiafindsitselfwagingwiththeWest,referringto
thecomplicatedstateofglobalpoliticsanddistortionsofevents,includinginUkraineandSyria,
andsayingthatRTcandescribethetrueeventstoagrowingglobalaudienceyearningfor
unbiasedfacts.
ButPutinscommentsareatoddswithhowthenetworkoperatesinpractice,accordingto
interviewswithpeoplewhocloselywatchorhaveworkedatRT,andmyownhoursofmonitoring
thenetworkanditswebsite.OneformerRTstafferinWashingtontoldmethatsheleftherjob,
alongwithotherswhohavealsospokentothemedia,afterseeingthenetworksMoscow-based
editorsinstructjournaliststomaketheircoveragehewtotheMoscow-approvedpoliticalline.Such
concernseruptedintofullviewacoupleyearsagowhenRussiamarchedintoneighboringUkraine
toannextheCrimeanPeninsula,leadinga28-year-oldRTpresenternamedLizWahltoquiton-
air,declaring,IcannotbeapartofanetworkfundedbytheRussiangovernmentthat
whitewashestheactionsofPutin.
Justunderthesurfaceisabought-and-paid-forpropagandavehicletryingtonudge
viewerstowardRussiassideofthestoryatatimewhenMoscowhasincreasingly
becomeaninternationalpariah.

Today,itsclearRToperateslessasthefreeandindependentnewssourcePutintouted,and
moreasavehiclethatincreasinglyusestheavailabletoolsofthedigitalrevolutionfromviral
videos(AnimatedGenitals,LawnmowerExplodes)toentertaininglysnarkytweetstopromote
Russiasmessage.ItspositioningitselfasascrappydissentertotheoldWesternmedias
monopolyoninformation,athemeSimonyanemphasizedtomeinastatementforthisstory.
Americans,shesaid,watchRTforstories,viewsandanalysistheywontfindinthemainstream
media.AsforcriticismofRTscoverageoftheUnitedStatesandthe2016campaign,she
soundedapositivelyTrumpiantheme,sayingRTscriticsaremostlymembersoftheU.S.political
establishment,whoareuncomfortablewithlosingthelongtimemonopolyoninformation.
SeatednexttoSimonyanatthedinnerandjusttwoseatsawayfromPutinhimselfwasperhapsthe
mostintriguingexampleofhowtheRussianshavegoneaboutrecruitingdisaffectedmembersof
thatestablishment:arugged-lookingmaninatuxedowholessthan18monthsearlierhadbeen
headoftheDefenseIntelligenceAgency,thePentagonspowerfulin-houseequivalentoftheCIA.
MichaelFlynn,nowaprivatecitizenafterareportedlydisgruntledretirement,wasnotthereto
gatherintelligence.HisattendanceattheRTgala,beforewhichhealsogaveatalkonworld
affairs,appearedtoinauguratearelationshipwiththenetworkpresumablyapaidone,though
neitherFlynnnorRTansweredqueriesonthesubject.Flynnnowmakessemi-regular
appearancesonRTasananalyst,inwhichheoftenarguesthattheU.S.andRussiashouldbe
workingmorecloselytogetheronissueslikefightingISILandendingSyriascivilwar.Russiahas
itsownnationalsecuritystrategy,andwehavetorespectthat,hesaidinonerecentappearance.
Andwehavetotrytofigureout:HowdowecombinetheUnitedStatesnationalsecuritystrategy
alongwithRussiasnationalsecuritystrategy,despiteallthechallengesthatweface?
Atamomentofsemi-hostilitybetweentheU.S.andRussia,thepresenceofsuchanimportant
figureatPutinstablestartledcurrentandformermembersoftheObamaadministration.Itwas
extremelyoddthatheshowedupinatuxedototheRussiangovernmentpropagandaarmsparty,
oneformerPentagonofficialtoldme.
Readmore:http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/donald-trump-2016-russia-today-rt-kremlin-media-
vladimir-putin-213833#ixzz476128h00
Followus:@politicoonTwitter|PoliticoonFacebook
From:VRT
Subject:PLEASENOTE---OLDERBUTSTILLVALID:"PutinFavorsTrumporSandersforPresident.HeresWhy
ThatMatterstoYou"
Putin Favors Trump or Sanders for President. Heres Why

That Matters to You
BLAZE
PaulGregory
PaulGregoryisaspecialistonRussia,theSovietUnionandUkraine.HeisaCullenDistinguishedProfessorattheUniversityof
HoustonaResearchFellow,attheHooverInstitutionatStanfordUniversity
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RTs(RussiaToday,theKremlinsmediaarmtotheoutsideworld)presscoverageoftheU.S.
presidentialprimarieshasbeenuniformlyfavorabletowardsBernieSandersandDonaldTrump,
whileHillaryClintonandMarcoRubiohavebeenthebuttofnegativereporting.
TheotherRepublicancandidateshavereceivedlittlecoverage,eitherpositiveornegative.I
guesstheKremlindoesnotconsidertheminthemixoflikelywinners.
Despitebudgetwoes,VladimirPutindoesnotspareexpenseingettingouthismessage
throughRTanditssisteroutletSputnik.Bothaimforadegreeofrespectabilityandtryto
refrainfromtheoutrightoutlandish.ThereareallkindsofunofficialoutletsforKremlin
garbageinsocialmedia.
(APPhoto/AlexanderZemlianichenko)
RTportraysSandersasakindly,grandfatherlyfigure,anidealistdedicatedtoequality,justice,
fairness,socialdemocracyandafighteragainstcorporateinterests,themilitaryindustrial
complex,andthewealthy.Sandersfollowersarepicturedasidealistsstrugglingforajust
society.
RTsHillaryClintonisaflawedandunpopularfigurecompromisedbyemailscandals,flip-flops,
areputationfordishonesty,grubbingforcampaigncontributions,cheatingintownhall
meetings,futileattemptstodistanceherselffromWallStreet,andalosingbattleagainst
thehumble,regular-guySanders.
OntheRepublicanside,RTlabelsTrumpastheclearfrontrunner,anextraordinaryperson,
whoattractsenthusiasticandunprecedentedcrowds.RTheraldshisrejectionoftheIraqwar,
hismanytalents,hiscuttingdebatestyle,andhisrespectforanddefenseofVladimirPutin.
DonaldTrumpFavorabilityRatingOverTime|InsideGov
RT(anditssisterpublication,Sputnik)havelesskindwordsforMarcoRubio.Amongother
missteps,RubioissaidtohavedeclaredtheParismassacreanactofGod,histhugs
haveattackedprotesters,heisaWallStreetinsider,andwishestocanceltheIraniannuclear
deal.RTleavesittotheKremlinsbottomfeederstolabelRubioawarmonger,butthey
ridiculehimforwearinghighheelstomaskhisshortstature.
Inthemostrecentdebate,SanderspickedtinyparanoidNorthKoreaasthegreatestthreatto
America,versusClintonsbelligerentRussia.Russia,Clintonwarns,istryingtomovepost
WorldWarIIboundariesandtosetEuropeancountriesoneagainsttheother.Sanderscallfor
anewNATO-likeorganizationthatincludesRussiatocombatradicalIslamicterrorismmustbe
beautifulmusictoPutinsears.Putinshouldbeconfidenthecanruncirclesaroundtheother-
worldlySanders.PutinschoicesofSandersandTrumprequirenogeniustoanalyze.Sanderss
antiwarpacifismandinexperienceinworldpowerpoliticsmakehimaseasymarkforPutin.
BernieSandersFavorabilityRatingOverTime|InsideGov
PutinhasanevenstrongeraffinityforTrump.TrumpsatisfiesPutinspathologicalneedfor
praiseandrespect.TrumpcharacterizesPutinaleader(incontrasttoBarackObama)
anddefendshimagainstchargesofmurderingopponents:Putinkilledreporters?Proveit.
Inhisannual2015pressconference,PutincharacterizedTrumpasaverycolorfuland
talentedman,nodoubtaboutthat.Hesaysthathewantstomovetoanotherlevelof
relations,toadeeperlevelofrelationswithRussia.Howcanwenotwelcomethat?
TrumpsgreatestattractionforPutinishisapparentindifferencetowardsconflictsinwhich
Russiaisengaged.AccordingtoTrump,theyarenotAmericasbusiness:LetRussiafight
[IslamicState],iftheywanttofighttheminSyria.LetSyriaand[IslamicState]fight.Why
dowecare?
IfTrumpwantsotherstofightMiddleEasternwars,hemightdecide,toPutinsdelight,tolet
haplessandtoothlessGermanyorFrancedefendUkraineandtheBalticstatesfromRussian
aggression.
UnlikeTrumpsisolationismwithrespecttoEuropeanandMiddleEasternhotspots,Putin
understandsthatRubiohasstakedoutahawkishpositionwithrespecttoRussia.
RubiojoinedhisSenatecolleaguesinsupportingstrictersanctionsagainstRussiaandin
pushingforlethalmilitaryaidtoUkraine.Toaddinsulttoinjury,RubiohasdaredtocallPutin
agangsterleadingacriminalregimeandhasdredgedupthe1999apartment
bombingslikelyorderedbyPutintojustifytheSecondChechenWar.Russiacannotallowa
threatlikeRubiotobecomepresident.
AmericanvoterssupportTrumpandSandersbecausetheyareangrywithhowWashington
works.Theyareingoodcompany,andtheyhaveeveryreasontobeappalled.
TrumpandSanderssupportersmust,however,understandthattheirbackingofapie-in-the-
skysocialist/pacifistoranentertainer/businessmanputstheminthesamecampasRussias
corruptleader.VladimirPutinishopingAmericanvotersgivehimtheopportunitytoplaychess
againstcheckersamateursashepullsEuropeapart,strengthensunsavoryregimesinIranand
Syria,andseekstorestorelostSovietterritorybyforce.
TheBlazecontributorchannelsupportsanopendiscourseonarangeofviews.Theopinions
expressedinthischannelaresolelythoseofeachindividualauthor.
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Wed,Apr27,2016at11:40PM
Subject:TrumpsForeignPolicySpeech(transcript)/+WSJ
To:
WSJ"Mr.TrumprepeatedlysaidatopprioritywouldbeexpandingtheU.S.military,modernizingits
nuclearweaponsarsenalandgreatlyincreasingthenumberofU.S.troops,shipsandaircraft.Buthe
stoppedshortofdetailingwhatanewAmericanmilitarywoulddo,orwhattheroleofabeefed-uparmed
serviceswouldbe,orhowthatplanwouldcoexistwithavisionofagreatlyreducedU.S.footprint."
TrumpsAmericaFirstForeignPolicySpeech(transcript)
http://time.com/4309786/read-donald-trumps-america-first-foreign-policy-speech/
...WedesiretolivepeacefullyandinfriendshipwithRussiaandChina.Wehaveseriousdifferenceswith
thesetwonations,andmustregardthemwithopeneyes,butwearenotboundtobeadversaries.We
shouldseekcommongroundbasedonsharedinterests.
Russia,forinstance,hasalsoseenthehorrorofIslamicterrorism.Ibelieveaneasingoftensions,and
improvedrelationswithRussiafromapositionofstrengthonlyispossible,absolutelypossible.
Commonsensesaysthiscycle,thishorriblecycleofhostilitymustendandideallywillendsoon.Good
forbothcountries.
SomesaytheRussianswontbereasonable.Iintendtofindout.Ifwecantmakeadealundermy
administration,adealthatsgreatnotgood,greatforAmerica,butalsogoodforRussia,thenwe
willquicklywalkfromthetable.Itsassimpleasthat.Weregoingtofindout.
FixingourrelationswithChinaisanotherimportantstepandreallytowardcreatinganevenmore
prosperousperiodoftime.Chinarespectsstrengthandbylettingthemtakeadvantageofus
economically,whichtheyaredoinglikeneverbefore,wehavelostalloftheirrespect.
WehaveamassivetradedeficitwithChina,adeficitthatwehavetofindawayquickly,andImean
quickly,tobalance.AstrongandsmartAmericaisanAmericathatwillfindabetterfriendinChina,better
thanwehaverightnow.LookatwhatChinaisdoingintheSouthChinaSea.Theyrenotsupposedto
bedoingit.
Norespectforthiscountryorthispresident.Wecanbothbenefitorwecanbothgoourseparateways.If
needbe,thatswhatsgoingtohavetohappen.
AfterImelectedpresident,IwillalsocallforasummitwithourNATOalliesandaseparatesummitwith
ourAsianallies.Inthesesummits,wewillnotonlydiscussarebalancingoffinancialcommitments,but
takeafreshlookathowwecanadoptnewstrategiesfortacklingourcommonchallenges.Forinstance,
wewilldiscusshowwecanupgradeNATOsoutdatedmissionandstructure,grownoutoftheColdWar,
toconfrontoursharedchallenges,includingmigrationandIslamicterrorism.
...
DonaldTrumpCallsforDramaticBreakWithCurrentU.S.ForeignPolicy
GOPfront-runnercallsforexpandingthesizeofthemilitary,whilepullingbackfromglobalhotspots
http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-calls-for-dramatic-break-with-current-u-s-foreign-policy-
1461783848
Inararepolicyspeech,Republicanfront-runnerDonaldTrumpoutlinedhisforeignpolicyplanifelected
asthenextpresidentoftheUnitedStates.
ByDamianPalettaandPeterNicholas
UpdatedApril27,20169:48p.m.
821COMMENTS
Republicanpresidentialfront-runnerDonaldTrump,emboldenedbyfreshprimarywinsthisweekand
pivotingtowardalikelygeneral-electionfight,calledWednesdayfortheU.S.topullbackfromitsglobal
engagements,markingadecisivebreakfromrecentRepublicanorthodoxy.
Mr.Trumpsfirstmajorforeign-policyaddressoutlinedaseriesofbluntprinciples,someofthem
arguablycontradictory,andwasnotableforitswillingnesstoexcoriatethevisionofformerPresident
GeorgeW.Bush,aswellasPresidentBarackObama.
ThespeechcameadayafterMr.TrumpandDemocratHillaryClintontookall-but-irreversiblecontrolof
theirpartiesnominationprocesseswithsweepingprimaryvictoriesinNortheasternstates.Theirrivals
respondeddifferentlytotheirfadinghopesonWednesday.
Mr.Trumpsleadingrival,TexasSen.TedCruz,tooktheunusualstepofnaminghispotentialrunning
matethreemonthsbeforetheRepublicanconvention,choosingformerHewlett-PackardCo.Chief
ExecutiveCarlyFiorina.
VermontSen.BernieSanders,Mrs.Clintonsrival,islayingoffhundredsoffieldstaff,thecampaignsaid.
ThemovefollowedatoughstretchinwhichMr.SanderslostfiveofthelastsixprimaryconteststoMrs.
Clinton.
Thefront-runners,incontrast,spentthedaymostlyfocusedoneachotherandthegeneralelection.The
ClintoncampaignsoughttocapitalizeonMr.TrumpscommentinavictoryspeechTuesdaynightthatif
Mrs.Clintonwereaman,Idontthinkshedget5%ofthevote.Clintonaidessentoutafundraising
messageattackinghisabsurddiatribeagainstHillary,addingthatMrs.Clintonneededdonations
becauseshehadtobepreparedforMr.Trumpsunpredictablemessage.
Thenewlandscapepromptedrenewedscrutinyofthefront-runnerspositions,especiallywhenitcomes
toMr.Trump,whowouldbetheonlymajorpartynomineeinrecentmemorywithnogovernmentor
militaryexperience.Acentralaspectofhisforeign-policyaddress,attheMayflowerHotelafewblocks
fromtheWhiteHouse,wasitssolemndelivery,aftermonthsofraucousralliesandoftencoarse
comments.
Mr.TrumpsoverridingthemewasthattheU.S.mustresetitsrelationswithothercountries,easing
tensionswhenpossible,showingenemiesthattheU.S.meansbusiness,andguardingagainst
becominginvolvedintoomanypartsoftheworld.DespitedifferenceswithChinaandRussia,hesaid,
Wearenotboundtobeadversaries.
Strikinganationalisticandpopulisttone,Mr.Trumpwasunambiguousinsayinghewoulddemandthat
alliespaytheU.S.partofthebillfordefendingthemorelsetheywouldhavetodefendthemselves.
ManyofMr.TrumpscommentscontrastedwithrecentRepublicanforeignpolicy.GOPleaders,ledby
suchfiguresasMr.BushandSen.JohnMcCain(R.,Ariz.),haveoftencalledformuscularU.S.
engagementintheMiddleEast,Ukraineandelsewhere.
Thespeechwasmostlydevoidofnewproposals,butwasharshinitscriticismofMr.ObamaforwhatMr.
TrumpcalledanincoherentforeignpolicythatfavoredAmericasenemies,disappointeditsfriendsand
relegateditssecuritytoalowerpriority.
MyforeignpolicywillalwaysputtheinterestsoftheAmericanpeopleandAmericansecurityaboveall
else,Mr.Trumpsaid.Ithastobefirst.Hastobe.
WhiteHousespokesmanJoshEarnestdefendedMr.Obamasrecordandsaidvoterswouldhaveto
decideforthemselveswhotheywantasthenextcommanderinchief.
WhatistrueisthatPresidentObamaoverthecourseofhispresidencyhasworkedtounitethe
internationalcommunitytoconfrontawiderangeofthreats,hesaid.
Mr.TrumprepeatedlysaidatopprioritywouldbeexpandingtheU.S.military,modernizingitsnuclear
weaponsarsenalandgreatlyincreasingthenumberofU.S.troops,shipsandaircraft.
ButhestoppedshortofdetailingwhatanewAmericanmilitarywoulddo,orwhattheroleofabeefed-up
armedserviceswouldbe,orhowthatplanwouldcoexistwithavisionofagreatlyreducedU.S.
footprint.Mr.TrumpnotedthattheU.S.mustbewillingtostopdefendingEuropeanalliesthathesaid
dontcontributeenoughtotheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization,adding,TheU.S.mustbepreparedto
letthesecountriesdefendthemselves.
WhileMr.TrumpoutlinedgeneralprincipleslikemakingAmericaagreatandreliableallyagain,he
providedlittleindicationofhowthatmightplayoutinacomplexhotspotsuchasSyria.
Advocatingbothaggressivenessanddisengagement,Mr.TrumpdidnthesitatetogoafterMr.Bush,
sayinghis2003decisiontoinvadeIraqdestabilizedtheMiddleEastandthebiggestbeneficiaryhas
beenIran.AndhesaidMr.ObamasactionsintheMiddleEastgaverisetoIslamicState,aterror
networkthathesaidmustbedefeated,thoughhedidntspecifyhow.
Despitethegrandersetting,Mr.Trumpdidntretracthismorecontroversialforeign-policyideas,
reiterating,forexample,hiscallforapauseinallowingMuslimstoentertheU.S.
Buthealsodidntrepeatseveralproposalsthathavebeenpillarsofhisnational-securityplanformonths
andaregreetedwithroarsofapprovalathisrallies.Theseincludetheconstructionofa1,000-milewall
ontheU.S.-Mexicoborderandharsherinterrogationsofterrorsuspects.
Mr.TrumptriedtotetherMrs.ClintontoMr.Obamaherbosswhenshewassecretaryofstatesaying
thetwolettheU.S.loseinfluenceandalliesaroundtheworld.
Ourgoalispeaceandprosperity,notwaranddestruction,Mr.Trumpsaid.Thebestwaytoachieve
thosegoalsisthroughadisciplined,deliberateandconsistentforeignpolicy.WithPresidentObamaand
SecretaryClinton,wevehadtheexactoppositeareckless,rudderlessandaimlessforeignpolicy,one
thathasblazedapathofdestructioninitswake.
TheClintoncampaignwassharplycriticalofthespeech,sayingtheTrumpapproachwouldmakethe
worldmorechaoticanddangerous.Iveneverseensuchacombinationofsimplisticslogans,
contradictionsandmisstatementsinonespeech,saidformerSecretaryofStateMadeleineAlbrightina
callarrangedbytheClintoncampaign.
Ms.AlbrightalsocriticizedhisuseofthetermAmericaFirst,sayingitechoedtheAmericaFirst
CommitteethaturgedtheU.S.tostayoutofWorldWarII,despiteNaziGermanysaggressionin
Europe.Maybeheneverreadhistory,orhejustdoesntunderstandit,shesaid.
SeveralRepublicans,includingSen.LindseyGraham(R.,S.C.),anadvocateofstrongU.S.engagement,
alsoattackedthespeech.
Manynational-securityandforeign-policyadvisersfrombothpartieshaverejectedMr.Trumpspolicies,
sayingbanningtheentryofMuslimsandbuildinganewalliancewithRussiacouldbedangerous.
TherearesignsthatmoreRepublicansarewarmingtoMr.Trumpscandidacy,oratleastcomingto
termswiththefactthatheistheirlikelynominee.SenateForeignRelationsChairmanBobCorker(R.,
Tenn.),whosofarhaddeclinedtoweighinontheWhiteHouserace,said,DonaldTrumpdelivereda
verygoodforeign-policyspeechinwhichhelaidouthisvisionforAmericanengagementintheworld.
Atonepoint,Mr.TrumpsaidtheonlywaytocombatIslamicStatewastobecomemoreunpredictable
asanation.
Wearetotallypredictable,hesaid.Wetelleverything.Weresendingtroops.Wetellthem.Were
sendingsomethingelse.Wehaveanewsconference.Wehavetobeunpredictable.Andwehavetobe
unpredictablestartingnow.
Subject:WhatdoRussiansthinkofDonaldTrump?-BBCNews
http://www.bbc.com/news/36155109
WhatdoRussiansthinkofDonaldTrump?
27April2016Lastupdatedat22:52BST
Ifthepopulationsoftherestoftheworld'sG20countriescouldvoteintheUSelection,they'doverwhelminglyvoteforHillary
ClintonoverDonaldTrump.
That'saccordingtoarecentpollbyGermany'sHandelsblattpublishinggroupandYouGov,theonlinepollster.
Butthere'sonecountrywheretheformerFirstLadytakesabackseattothebillionaireRepublicanfront-runnerfromNew
York,andthat'sRussia.
SteveRosenbergwenttoanAmerican-themeddinerinMoscowtofindoutwhy.
Subject:TrumpJumpsIntoBedWithPutin
TrumpJumpsIntoBedWithPutin
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/trump-jumps-into-bed-with-putin/
DonaldJ.Trumpsforeignpolicyaddresswasdeliveredwiththeaidofateleprompterandwrittenbyhispro-Russianadvisers.He
tooknoquestions.ItwasareplayofformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonsdisastrousRussianresetthatledtotheRussian
invasionofUkraine.Yet,TrumppretendstobeanopponentofMrs.Clintonsforeignpolicy.
WeclearlysawtheinfluenceofTrumpspro-Russianadvisersinthespeech.TherewasabsolutelynorecognitionoftheRussian
threattoEurope,includingitsinvasionandoccupationofUkraine.
Evenourmediacouldntignorethisblatantomission.CNNinternationalcorrespondentFrederickPleitgennotedafterthespeech
thatTrumpsomissionofUkrainewasgreatnewsforRussia,andthattheRussianswillbealmostecstaticoverthespeech.He
saidmanypeopleinRussiaareadmirersofTrump.
Ofcourse,TrumpadmiresVladimirPutin,andviceversa.Thatisamatterofrecord.Trumpdidntdisavowhispreviouspro-Putin
comments.
TrumpwasnavetotheextremeintalkingaboutcooperationwithRussia.Forexample,herepeatedlytalkedaboutthethreat
posedbyIran,withoutnotingthatIransmainsponsorisRussia.TrumpcannotbetoughwithIranwhileplayingnicewithRussia.
TrumpclaimstobeforIsrael,butheignoresRussianbackingfortheIraniannuclearweaponsprogram.Thismakesnosense,
exceptfromapro-Russianpointofview.TheIranianthreatismadepossiblebyPutin.
TrumpsaidhewantedtopressureChinatodosomethingaboutNorthKoreasnuclearprogram.ButChinaandNorthKoreaare
bothcommunistcountries.Theyhaveatreatytogether.NorthKoreaalsohasatreatywithRussia.Theinternationalcommunist
movementisaliveandwell.ChinabacksNorthKoreaforideologicalreasons.
SincetheendoftheColdWarandthebreakupoftheSovietUnion,wevelackedacoherentforeignpolicy,Trumpsaid.
PerhapstheSovietbreakupwasdesignedtoconfuseus.PerhapsthefactthatRussianPresidentPutinisaformerKGBofficeris
noaccident,andtheresareasonwhyRussianforeignpolicyresemblesthatoftheoldSovietUnion.
IfPresidentObamasgoalhadbeentoweakenAmerica,hecouldnothavedoneabetterjob,saidTrump.ButwhatisTrumps
goal?TrumpfailedtoarticulateapolicyofregimechangeinRussiathatwouldputPutinontrialforviolationsofinternationallaw
andcrimesagainsthumanityinUkraineandSyria.
MoscowhascreatedmuchoftheconflictintheMiddleEastandaroundtheworldthatthreatenstheU.S.,EuropeandIsrael.
TrumpseemsoblivioustoRussianaggression.
TrumpsayswecanjoinwithRussiaagainstIslamicterrorism.ButsomeexpertssaytheRussiansarebehindISIS,al-Qaedaand
otherIslamicterroristgroups,forthepurposeofdestabilizingtheregionandhelpingIranexpand.
TrumpsapproachisthesameattitudethatcharacterizedtheObama/Clintonadministration.AfterHillarysdisastrousresetwith
RussiacameRussianmembershipintheWorldTradeOrganizationandmoreWesterninvestmentinRussia.Then,Obamamocked
MittRomneyduringthe2012presidentialcampaignforcallingRussiaageopoliticalthreat.Now,Trumpproposestoignorethe
RussianinvasionofUkraineandengineeraresetofhisownwithPutin.PerhapsTrumpsattitudeisdrivenbyhishistoryoftryingto
dobusinessdealswithMoscow.
Inoneofhismostnavemoments,Trumpsaid,IbelieveaneasingoftensionsandimprovedrelationswithRussia,fromaposition
ofstrengthonly,ispossible,absolutelypossible.Commonsensesaysthiscycle,thishorriblecycleofhostilitymustend,andideally
willendsoon.Goodforbothcountries.ApositionofstrengthwouldseemtodictatethatweconfrontRussiainUkraineby
supportingthegovernmentandpeoplethere.TheywanttobefreeofRussiancontrol.TrumpsaysAmericashouldbetheleaderof
theFreeWorld.YetTrumpjusthiredanadviserwhowasamemberoftheteambackingthecommunistsinUkraine.Another
TrumpadviserworksforaRussiangascompany.
ThebillionairebusinessmanhasastrangeblindspotwhenitcomestoPutinsRussia.
ApositionofstrengthmeansconfrontingRussiaoveritssupportofIran.Trumpsaid,Wedesiretolivepeacefullyandinfriendship
withRussiaandChina.Wehaveseriousdifferenceswiththesetwonations,andmustregardthemwithopeneyes,butwearenot
boundtobeadversaries.Weshouldseekcommongroundbasedonsharedinterests.
Whatseriousdifferences?Ukraine?Trumpdidntmentionthat.WhatcommongroundistherewithRussia?
Trumpiscorrectthattheforeignpolicyestablishmenthasmadeamess.Butitseemsclearheisinbedwithsomemembersofthe
establishment.Forexample,hehaslookedtoRichardHaassoftheCouncilonForeignRelationsforforeignpolicyadvice.I
respectRichardHaass,Trumphassaid.AndIlikehimalot.
TheTrumpforeignpolicyspeechwassponsoredbyTheNationalInterest,apublicationoftheCouncilfortheNationalInterest,
whoseBoardofDirectorsincludesHenryKissingerasitsHonoraryChairman.OtherboardmembersincludeLeslieGelb,
PresidentEmeritusoftheCouncilonForeignRelations.
KissingerhasbeenpraisedbyHillaryClinton,whosays,Kissingerisafriend,andIreliedonhiscounselwhenIservedas
SecretaryofState.ButKissingersworkasSecretaryofState,andsubsequentlyasaconsultanttoforeigncompaniesand
governments,hasresultedinthebuildingupofRussiaandChinaatAmericanexpense.Kissingeralsoengineeredourdefeatin
Vietnam,withthehelpofaliberalCongress.
Today,ourtopgeneralssayRussiaisthegreatestthreattotheUnitedStates,anexistentialthreat,meaningtheRussianscan
incinerateournationbecauseoftheirnuclearweaponsadvantage.TrumptalksaboutmodernizingtheU.S.nucleararsenal,but
withoutbeingcriticalofthegrowingRussiannuclearthreat.ThisstrangedeferencetoRussiaranthroughouttheentirespeech.
Inthrowingoutsomeredmeattoconservatives,Trumpsaid,Wewillnolongersurrenderthiscountryoritspeopletothefalse
songofglobalism.Thenation-stateremainsthetruefoundationforhappinessandharmony.Iamskepticalofinternationalunions
thattieusupandbringAmericadownandwillneverenterAmericaintoanyagreementthatreducesourabilitytocontrolourown
affairs.
WillhegettheU.S.outoftheU.N.and/oritsmanyagencies?Thatstherealtestofbeingagainstglobalism.Butratherthangetus
outoftheU.N.,itlookslikeTrumpwillworkwithRussiaandChinaontheU.N.SecurityCouncil.
Despitethemediabuildupforthespeech,itsclearthatonthematteroftheU.S-RussianrelationshipTrumpdoesntrepresenta
realchangefromthepoliciesoftheObama/Hillaryadministration.AcontestbetweenHillaryandTheDonaldmeanstheRussians
emergeasthewinnersnomatterwhowins.AnotherRussianresetisinthecards,compoundingtheAmericanweaknessthat
Trumpsayshewantstodosomethingabout.
CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontacted
atcliff.kincaid@aim.org
Senttime: 04/28/201605:00:13PM
Subject: DonaldTrumpsforeignpolicyspeechwasanincoherentmess.
AMessofContradictions
DonaldTrumpdeliversaforeignpolicyspeechWednesdayattheMayflowerHotelinWashington,D.C.
ChipSomodevilla/GettyImages
Ididntthinkitpossible,butDonaldTrumpsmajorforeignpolicyaddressonWednesdayawrittenspeech,whichhe
readoffateleprompterwasevenmoreincoherentthanhisimprompturamblingsofthepastseveralmonths.Infact,it
maystandasthemostsenseless,self-contradictingforeignpolicyspeechbyanymajorpartyspresidentialnomineein
modernhistory.
Forexample,hesaidthat,becauseofPresidentObamaspolicies,
ourfriendsandalliesfeeltheycannolongerdependonusthen
saidthataTrumpadministrationwouldquitNATOandabandonour
alliesinAsiaentirelyunlesstheystartedspendingmoreondefense.
FredKaplan
HesaidthathisNo.1national-securitygoalwouldbetodefeat
ISISthensaidthathewouldworkwithothernationstodosoonlyiftheyappreciatewhatwevedoneforthem,
becauseforustobegoodtothem,theyalsohavetobegoodtous.(Theressomethingchildish,evennarcissistic,about
thisdemand,whichherecitedinthetoneofadesperatelyfirmparent.)
Hesaid,ashehasmanytimes,thatourtradedeficithasseverelyweakenedAmericaandstrengthenedChinathensaid
thatwehaveenormouseconomicleverageoverChinaandthatweshoulduseittogetChinatoreininNorthKorea.
HesaidweshouldnothelpanycountrythatisntourfriendthenproposedeasingtensionswithRussia.(Itspossibleto
holdoneviewortheother,butnotboth.)
HesaidhewouldstrengthenAmericaseconomyinordertoshrinkthedeficitthensaidhewouldusetheextrawealthto
boostjobs,thensaidhewoulduseittoincreasethemilitarybudget,withouttheslightestrecognitionofpossibletrade-offs
ortheneedtosetpriorities.
Thentherearethestatements,manyofthemreprisedfromdebatesandcampaignspeeches,thataresimplyuntrue.He
claimedthatIranhasviolatedthenuclearagreement,wheninfactitsabidedbytheterms.Headdedthat,becauseofthe
deal,Iranhasbecomeagreat,greatpowerwhichmustcomeasnewstoIransleaders,whoarefrustratedthat,
despitetheliftingofsanctions,theystillcantgetmuchtradegoingwiththeWest.HesaidObamahassnubbedIsrael,
wheninfactmanyIsraelimilitaryandintelligenceofficerscreditObamawithprovidingmoresecurityassistancethan
anyrecentpresident.
TrumpaddedthatObamahasletournucleararsenalatrophy,wheninfactthePentagonisspending$20billionayearto
maintainandmodernizeit.HesaidObamasproposeddefensebudgetfornextyear(which,bytheway,amountsto$608
billion)is25percentsmallerthanhisbudgetfor2011when,infact,itslarger.Hesaidthat,since1991,theactive-duty
U.S.Armyhasshrunkfrom2milliontroopsto1.3million,thattheAirForceisone-thirdsmaller,andthattheNavys
forceofshipshasdeclinedfrom500to272whichmaysoundalarming,untilyouconsider(whichTrumphasnt)thatthe
ColdWarendedin1991:Itwouldbestrangeifthemilitaryhadntshrunksincethen.
Andtherewerethebombasticpronouncementswithnobasiswhatsoever.Theworldismoredangerousthanithasever
been.(Thinkaboutthatclaimforoneminute,andyoullseehowabsurditis.)AboutISIS,hesaid,Theyregoingtobe
goneifImelectedpresident,andtheyllbegonevery,veryquickly.(Whatdoesthismean?Ishegoingtoscowlat
them?Nukethem?)Nooneknowshowtoreducedebt,butIdo.(Onewayhereduceddebtintheprivatesector
wastobuydebt-riddencompanies,thenabandonthecreditorsorofferthemdimesonthedollarornothing.International
debtdoesntworkthisway.)Healsosaid,ashehasbefore,thatheopposedtheIraqwarbecauseitwoulddestabilize
theMiddleEastwhen,infact,hesupportedtheinvasionnotlongbeforeittookplace.
Finally,helentcredencetothesuspicionthathesneverreadahistorybook.Inwhatacynicmightinterpretasanactof
speechwriterssabotage,heembracedthetagAmericaFirst,goingsofarastosayitwillbetheoverridingthemeof
hisforeignpolicy.HedoesntseemtorealizethatthiswasthesloganofCharlesLindberghinhis1940campaignagainst
PresidentFranklinD.RoosevelttoremainneutralandisolationistduringWorldWarII.IsLindberghTrumpswitting
rolemodel?
Thiswas,Irepeat,apreparedspeech,notsomeramblingremarksbyacandidateinoverhishead.Idontknowwho
wroteit,butitseemstoconfirmrumorsthatnoprominentRepublicannational-securityadvisersareassistingTrumps
campaign.Clearlythisisthespeechofanunseriousmanwhohasntreadupontheissuesorthoughtthroughhisown
instincts.Thedangerousthingisnotsomuchthatheknowsnothingaboutforeignpolicyitsthathedoesntknowjust
howmuchhedoesntknow.
SentfrommyiPad
Senttime: 04/27/201612:38:21PM
Subject: FW:Update:"NamesofRussia'seliteVANISHfrompublicpropertyrecords,"http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27701919.html
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Wednesday,April27,201612:38PM
Subject:Update:"NamesofRussia'seliteVANISHfrompublicpropertyrecords,"http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27701919.html
PeculiarthingsareafootwithseniorRussianofficialsandtheirrelativestiedtopriceyrealestate:
TheirinformationkeepsDISAPPEARINGfrompublicpropertyrecords.
And:[Victoria]NULAND:NodeadlineforUkrainevote,SANCTIONStostayuntilMinskfulfilled,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27701280.html
And:TheOFFSHOREPATRIOT[DeputyRussianPrimeMinisterDmitriiROGOZIN],27pagereport,
http://www.compromat.ru/page_36833.htm
And:LEVADACenterpollonRussiansreactionstoPanamagate:RossiyanPanamoineudivish,
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2974769
56%ofRussianshaveheardnothingaboutPanamagate.
And:TRUMPvowstoIMPROVERELATIONSwithRussia,ChinaifelectedU.S.president,
huffingtonpost.com,newsreport,4/27
Senttime: 04/27/201609:51:12AM
FW:[MEGADIGEST/JD-OD][JDDD][V.NULAND]deniesreportofJulyDEADLINEforDonbaselections.......[ODDD]U.S.Diplomat
Subject:
NulandSaysOptimisticAboutUkraineReforms[14-15storiesinall]
From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Wednesday,April27,20169:44AM
To:RomaHadzewycz
Subject:[MEGADIGEST/JD-OD][JDDD][V.NULAND]deniesreportofJulyDEADLINEforDonbaselections.......[ODDD]U.S.Diplomat
NulandSaysOptimisticAboutUkraineReforms[14-15storiesinall]
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Wed,Apr27,2016at11:55AM
Subject:"[VictoriaNULAND]deniesreportofJulyDEADLINEforDonbaselections,"kyivpost.com,4/27
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
"[VictoriaNULAND]deniesreportofJulyDEADLINEforDonbaselections,"kyivpost.com,4/27
And:ViktorYANUKOVYCHisnowaRussiancitizen:Undertheumbrella,uatoday.tv,4/27
UkrainesoustedpresidentViktorYanykovychandhisally,formerUkrainianPrimeMinister,Mykola
AZAROVarenowofficiallyRussiancitizensand,consequently,areundertheprotectionoftheRussian
Federation.ThiswasreportedbyTransparencyInternationalinvestigators
And:ReportsclaimPutinallyRODULGINsoffshoretiedtoMagnitsycase,themoscowtimes.com,
4/27
And:Huge22-pagearticleonSergeiRODULGINandhisoffshoreholdings:TheSECRET
CARETAKER,http://www.occrp.org/en/panamapapers/the-secret-caretaker/
And:[RussianProcuratorGeneral]CHAIKAhascalledtheoffshorescandalanOPERATIONbythe
specialservicesofoneoftheWestern
countries,http://www.newsru.com/russia/27apr2016/4aikapanam_print.html
And:KsenyaSOBCHAK,RBKglazamilyaugushki,Intricatedetailsconcerningtheregimeseffortto
suppressRBK(rbc.ru,rosbalt),theboldestsiteexposingRussian
corruption:http://echo.msk.ru/blog/sobchak/1754690-echo/
EveryoneisawarethattheRussianpressisrequiredtosubmittotworuleswhichhavenotbeenmade
public:nottotouchPutinsfamilyandnottotouchKadyrovsChechnya.ButRBKhasconducteda
wholeseriesofreportsonTikhonova[Putinsdaughter],onherhusbandandsoon.Thelaststraw,as
farasIknow,wasthePanamainvestigation.,informationconcerningthePanamaoffshoreholdingswas
constantlyshownontelevision.
And:AnofficerofKADYROVsMVD,AslambekKHATAEV,isreportedtohavebeendirectlyinvolved
incoordinatingNEMTSOVsassassins:http://www.rosbalt.ru/msocow/2016/04/27/1510020.html
And:OnhowRussiaisbeingtransformedintoaPOLICE
STATEhttp://www.rosbalt.ru/piter/2016/04/26/1510097.html
And:RussiasTVRAIN[DozhdTV]swimsagainsttideinseaofKremlin
propaganda,http://www.voanews.com/articleprintview/3303338.html
And:SociologistDenisVOLKOV,Opinion:WhyRussiastoppedlovingAmerica,meduza.io,4/25
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Wed,Apr27,2016at11:15AM
Subject:Ukraine:NYT,FT,WP,Economist,StateDep't
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
TheNewYorkTimes
U.S.DiplomatNulandSaysOptimisticAboutUkraineReforms
ByREUTERSAPRIL27,2016,7:12A.M.E.D.T.
Continuereadingthemainstory
KIEVU.SAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandsaidonWednesdayshewasencouragedbysignsofcommitmentto
reformfromUkraine'snewgovernmentandurgedKievtostartjailingcorruptofficials.
Monthsofpoliticalturmoilintherun-uptothecabinetreshuffle-thebiggestsinceanuprisingin2014broughtinapro-Western
leadership-havederailedeffortstorootoutcorruption,delayingbillionsofdollarsinforeignloans.
"Overall,Igohomeencouragedbythecommitmentofallthepoliticalforcestocontinuingandacceleratingreform,economic
reform,anti-corruptionreform,inparticularjudicialreform,"shesaidattheendofherfirstofficialvisittoKievsincethepolitical
shakeupearlierinApril.
FormerprimeministerArsenyYatseniukresignedtwoweeksagoandwasreplacedbyVolodymyrGroysman,acloseallyof
PresidentPetroPoroshenko.
"Obviouslycorruptionisstillaverydeepproblem.It'stimetostartlockinguppeoplewhohaverippedofftheUkrainian
populationfortoolong,"shesaid.
Nulandcalledforgreaterpoliticalunity,insistingUkrainemust"staythecourse"witha$17.5billionbailoutprogramfromthe
InternationalMonetaryFund,whosethirdtrancheof$1.7billionhasbeendelayedsincelastOctober.
Pro-EuropeanreformistsinUkrainehavepreviouslyexpressedconcernthatthelatestpoliticalrebootwillnoteliminatethe
influenceofpowerfulbusinessinterestsonpolicymaking.
NulandsaidfurtherU.S.financialassistancetoUkraine-athird$1-billionloanguaranteeisintheoffing-woulddependonthe
governmentstickingtotheIMFprogram.
(ReportingbyMatthiasWilliamsWritingbyAlessandraPrenticeEditingbyTomHeneghan)
FinancialTimes
http://www.ft.com/fastft/2016/04/27/ukraine-cuts-energy-subsidies-in-bid-to-please-imf/
UkrainecutsenergysubsidiesinbidtopleaseIMF
Ukrainemovedtofurthereliminateunsustainableenergysubsidiesbyunifyinghouseholdandcommercialnaturalgastariffs,
markingthefirstbigmovebythecountrysnewgovernmentindemonstratingitscommitmenttounfreezea$17.5bnIMFloan
programmethatfellofftrackamidamonths-longpoliticalcrisis.
ThedecisionbyareshuffledgovernmentusheredinthismonthandledbypresidentialloyalistVolodymyrGroysmanbringstariffs
forhouseholds,whichhadlongpaidatinyshareofmarketprices,toabout$272per1,000cubicmetres,nearlydoublemorethan
somecustomerspaidthiswinter.
Theybroughtdomesticgaspricestoimportparity.Verypositivemove,saidOlenaBilan,aneconomistatKiev-basedinvestment
bankDragonCapital.
TheprimeministerstressedthatmillionsofUkrainiansinneedwillcontinuetobeprotectedbymoretargetedandeffective
subsidies,RomanOlearchykreportsfromKiev.
ThisisconsistentwiththeUkrainianobligationstotheInternationalMonetaryFund,MrGroysmansaidataCabinetmeetingon
Wednesday,stressingthattheoldsystemwaspronetorent-seekingdiversionsofsubsidisedgastovestedintereststhatdrained
budgetresources.
Thepolitically-chargedtariffhikeswasannouncedasUSAssistantSecretaryofStateVictoriaNulandwrappedupathree-day
visitfortalkswithKievspro-westernleadershipbynotingthatshewasencouragedbythecommitmentofallthepoliticalforces
tocontinuingandacceleratingreform,economicreform,anti-corruptionreform,inparticularjudicialreform.
Sheurgedthewar-torncountry,whichisstrugglingtocrawloutofadeeprecession,tomakereformsirreversiblebycontinuing
progressincludingoften-unpopularausteritymeasuresimplementedbythepastgovernment.
VisitingKievafterjoiningPresidentBarrackObamaduringtalkswithEuropeanleadersinHanover,Germany,MsNuland
announcedtheUSwouldaccelerateitsowndiplomacywithMoscowinparallelwithEuropeanleadersthroughtheso-called
Normandyformat.TheaimistofindalastingsettlementtoUkrainestwo-year,still-smoulderingwarwithRussian-backed
separatistscontrollingbreakawayeasternregions,asoutlinedinaceasefireagreedinMinsklastyear.
PointingtoaaunifiedcommitmenttokeepsanctionsonRussiainplaceuntilitmeetsitsobligations,MsNulandsaidtheUS
wantstoseeMinskimplemented.
TheWashingtonPost
Separatists:5civilianskilledineasternUkrainefighting
ByNataliyaVasilyeva|AP
April27at10:11AM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/5-civilians-killed-on-front-line-in-eastern-ukraine/2016/04/27/4a0e9738-0c70-
11e6-bc53-db634ca94a2a_story.html
MOSCOWAtleastfivepeopleincludingapregnantwomanwerekilledandmorethan10injuredearlyWednesdayonthe
frontlineineasternUkraineintheworstcivilianlossoflifethereinmonths,separatistofficialssaid.
FightingbetweenRussia-backedseparatistsandUkrainiangovernmentforceshasbeenragingfortwoyears,claimingmorethan
9,100lives.
ThehostilitieshaveleftlargeswathesofeasternUkraineinrebelhands.Boththegovernmentandtherebelshavesetup
checkpointsonthefrontline,leavingthousandsofpeoplequeuingforhoursifnotdaystocrossfromonesidetotheother.
Travelershavetoapplyforpermitsandaresubjecttochecks.Localresidentshavecomplainedofhold-upsonbothsidesaswell
ascorruptUkrainianofficialsmakingmoneyongivingtravelersafasttrack.
Self-proclaimedofficialsintheeastsaidonWednesdaythevictimswerespendingthenightintheircarsatthecheckpointoutside
thevillageofOlenivkahopingtocrossthelineinthemorning.
TherebelsDonetskNewsAgencyquoteddefensechiefEduardBasurinsayingthattherewasapregnantwomanamongthose
killed.BasurinclaimedthecivilianswerekilledbyartilleryfirefromtheUkrainianside.
Footagefromthesceneshowedcarsonthesideoftheroadriddledwithshrapnelandoneofthemoverturned.Unidentified
forensicexpertswereseenexaminingwhatappearedtobeacraterfromamortarshell.
Ukrainianofficialsdeniedresponsibility.TheindependentNewsofDonbasswebsiteonWednesdayquotedlocalborderguard
spokesmanAnatolyKotsurbaassayingthattherewasablastatthecheckpointbutnoartilleryfirefromtheirside.
Internationalobservershavedecriedthecreationofde-factoborderchecks,whichhaveleftthousandsofpedestriansand
motoristsqueuingonthefrontlineoftheconflict,andwarnedofrisksofholdingciviliansthere.
Officialsfrombothsideshavehadtoclosecheckpointsregularlyinthepastmonthsasfightingflaredupalongthefrontline.
TheWashingtonPost
ProminentjournalistdeniedworkpermitinUkraine
ByAssociatedPress
April26at12:03PM
http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/prominent-journalist-denied-work-permit-in-ukraine/2016/04/26/427db4a6-0bba-
11e6-bc53-db634ca94a2a_story.html
MOSCOWOneofthemostinfluentialjournalistsonUkrainiantelevisionwasdeniedaworkpermitonTuesday,authorities
said.
MigrationauthoritiessaidtheywouldntextendthepermitforSavikShuster,hostofapopularpoliticaltalkshow,becausehefailed
toinformthemofataxinvestigationagainsthim.
Shuster,whowasborninLithuaniawhenitwaspartoftheSovietUnion,holdsCanadianandItaliancitizenship.Withthetwo
passportsheholds,hecanstayinUkraineupto90dayswithoutavisa.
Theaward-winningjournalist,whohasinvitedrepresentativesofallpoliticalviewsontohisprogram,accusedthegovernmentof
goingafterhimforcriticizingauthorities.
Asitturnsoutthisgovernmentdoesnottolerateanycriticism,hetoldindependentTVnewsstation112.Thisisathreatnot
onlyforusbutalsotoallofus,dissentingpoliticiansandjournalistswhowanttocovereventsastheyarebutnotas(the
government)wantsthemtolooklike.
Intheearly2000s,Russian-speakingShusterhostedapopularpoliticaltalkshowonRussiasindependentNTV,whichwas
gaggedandgraduallydismantledduringPresidentVladimirPutinsfirstterminoffice.
IvebeenthroughthisbeforeinRussia,Shustersaid,vowingtodefythebanandbroadcastinUkraineevenwithoutthe
permit.
Shusterhasdeniedthetaxclaimshisproductioncompanyfacedearlierthisyearasabsolutelytrumpedup.
SeveralUkrainianspoliticianshavespokeninShusterssupport.
OppositionlawmakerSerhiyVlasenkosaidthedecisiontorevokeShustersworkpermitcouldnthavebeentakenwithoutthe
knowledgeofthecountrysleadership.
TheEconomist
http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21697741-chernobyl-led-thousands-deaths-including-soviet-union-nuclear-disaster?
cid1=cust/ddnew/n/n/n/20160426n/owned/n/n/nwl/n/n/n/email&etear=dailydispatch
30yearslater
Anucleardisasterthatbroughtdownanempire
Chernobylledtothousandsofdeaths,includingthatoftheSovietUnion
Apr26th2016|Europe
MYMOTHERLANDistheSovietUnion,readsasentencewrittenincursivescriptinoneoftheexercisebooksscatteredon
thefloorofanabandonedschoolinPripyat,aSovietghosttownnexttotheChernobylnuclearpowerstation,whichblewupon
April26th1986.Thetown,builtinthe1970sfortheplantsworkers,wasevacuatedontheafternoonofApril27th1986,some
36hoursaftertheworstnuclear-powerdisasterinhistory.
TodayPripyatisbeingreclaimedbynatureandtourists.Whatwereoncestreetshavebecomeforestpathsconcreteblocksof
flatsdecoratedwithSovietslogansandsymbolsarebarelyvisiblethroughthetrees.Some200pensionerseventuallyreturnedto
villagesinthearea,butPripyatitselfremainsdead,aSovietPompeii.Touristsandjournalistsstrollthroughsilentalleysdottedwith
rustingpropagandastands,takingphotographsofscatteredgasmasks,clothes,toysandtextbooksinabandonedschoolrooms.
Somemayhavebeenpositionedtheredeliberatelybytourorganisers.
ChernobylisalsoamonumenttotheextinctionofSovietcivilisation.AsMikhailGorbachev,thelastSovietleader,reflectedyears
later,themeltdown,evenmorethanmylaunchofperestroika,wasperhapstherealcauseofthecollapseoftheSovietUnionfive
yearslater.Itwasacatalystforglasnost,theopening-upoftheSovietmedia,whichexposedtheflawsoftheSovietsystemand
setoffthechainreactionthatledtoitsultimatedestruction.
MrGorbachevhadbeeninpowerjustoverayear,attemptingtograntthestrugglingSovietsystemanewleaseonlife.The
disasterwasabadomen.At1.23amonApril26ththesystemsufferedapowersurge.Theresultingexplosionreleased400times
asmuchradioactivematerialastheatomicbombdroppedonHiroshima.ItalsoblewthelidfromtheSoviettraditionoflies.
Theensuingcover-upwasmoredeplorablethantheerrorsthatledtotheexplosion.Sovietofficialsdidnotreporttheaccident.
ThefirstinformationcamefromsensorsinSweden,whichdetectedariseinradioactivity.WhilefirefightersfromKievwere
heroicallytryingtoputouttheblaze,receivingdeadlydosesofradiationintheprocess,childreninPripyatplayedfootballonthe
streetsandcouplescelebratedweddingsoutdoors.Familieswalkedontoabridgetolookatthefire,unawarethattheywere
exposingthemselvestotheworstoftheradioactivecloud.Throughoutthedaylocalofficialskeptsilent.Thedecisiontoevacuate
Pripyat'sresidentswasmadeintheeveningoftheApril26thandovernight1,100buseswerebroughtin.Thefollowingday,
residentsweregiventwohourstopacktheiressentials.Therestofthecountrywaskeptinthedark.
Finally,onApril28th,thegovernmentmadea15-secondstatementontheeveningnews:Therehasbeenanaccidentatthe
Chernobylnuclearpowerplant.Itnotedthatassistancehasbeenprovidedtothoseaffectedandthataninvestigative
commissionhasbeensetup.OnMay1st,whilelocalCommunistPartybosseswereevacuatingtheirownfamilies,hundredsof
thousandsofordinarypeopleattendedaMayDayparadeinKiev,whereradiationlevelswereseveral-foldhigherthannormal.
Manycamewithchildreninshort-sleevedshirts.
Insteadofprovidinginformation,theSovietpropagandawasbusybattlingtheforeignmedia.MoscowNews,apropagandasheet
publishedinadozenlanguages,rananarticleheadlinedAPoisonedCloudofAnti-Sovietism.Itdenouncedapremeditatedand
well-orchestratedcampaignaimingtocoverupcriminalactsofmilitarismbytheUSAandNATOagainstpeaceandsecurity.
IntheeyesofhistwomostimportantconstituenciestheSovietintelligentsiaandtheWestMrGorbachevspledgeofopenness
hadfaileditsfirstimportanttest.Infact,asatranscriptofanemergencyPolitburomeetingshows,Gorbachevhimselfwasfurious
overhislimitedaccesstoinformation:EverythingwaskeptsecretfromtheCentralCommittee.Thewholesystemwaspenetrated
bythespiritofboot-licking,persecutionofdissidents,clannishness,window-dressingandnepotism.Wewillputanendtoallthis.
MrGorbachevbelievedthattorenewtheSovietsystem,hehadtoopenupthechannelsofinformation.Within
weeksglasnostbeganinearnest.VitalyKorotich,apoetfromKievwhohadcondemnedtheChernobylcover-up,wasappointed
editorofOgonyok,anillustratedweeklywithacirculationof1.5mcopies.AlongwiththerevampedMoscowNews,itbecamea
mouthpieceofMrGorbachevsprogrammeofperestroika,orrestructuring.Thesepublications,andothersthatfollowedsuit,
underminedoneofthemainpillarsoftheSovietsystem:itsabilitytolie.FiveyearsaftertheexplosionatChernobyl,thatinabilityto
concealthetruthwouldbringdownthewholerottenconstruction.
[OfallofthememoriesIhaveofarivetingvisittoChornobylseveralyearsagoaspartofaCongressionaldelegation,
Pripyat,theSovietPompeiiasTheEconomistsoaptlyputsit,standsoutasthemostpoignantandhaunting.OD]
StateDepartment
The30thAnniversaryoftheChornobylDisaster
PressStatement
JohnKirby
AssistantSecretaryandDepartmentSpokesperson,BureauofPublicAffairs
Washington,DC
April25,2016
Onthis30thanniversaryoftheChornobyldisaster,ourthoughtsremainwiththevictims,fromtheemergencyworkerswhogave
theirlivestopreventanevengreaterdisaster,tothoselivingintheareaaffectedbythefallout.
TheUnitedStatesmarksthisanniversarywithapledgeofanadditional$10milliondollarstohelpensurethesafetyoffuture
generationswholiveintheaffectedarea.Thispledgecomesontopofthemorethan$400milliontheU.S.hasalreadycommitted
totheinternationalefforttohelpUkrainerestorethesiteoftheaccidenttoanenvironmentallysafeandsecurecondition.
AswereflectonthetragedyofChornobyl,sotoomustwerecognizetheprogressthathasbeenmadetocompleteanew
confinementstructureforthedestroyedreactor,whichshouldsoonbemovedintoplace.Thestructureisdesignedtoprotectthe
surroundingenvironmentforthenext100yearsandallowforthesafeclean-upofChornobyl.Welookforwardtocontinuingour
workwiththeUkrainianGovernmentandourinternationalpartnerstoimprovethelivesofUkrainiansthereandacrossUkraine.
Senttime: 05/04/201609:23:45AM
FW:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE][TALESOFASHTON]UA/TODAY:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineFOX:CartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesBBC:CartertellsRUtostop'nuclearsabre-
Subject:
rattling''........[TALESOFTHEDON]Trump'sMan...
Sent:Tuesday,May03,20164:03PM
Subject:Fwd:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE][TALESOFASHTON]UA/TODAY:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineFOX:CartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesBBC:CartertellsRUto
stop'nuclearsabre-rattling''........[TALESOFTHEDON]Trump'sMan...
Subject:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE][TALESOFASHTON]UA/TODAY:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineFOX:CartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesBBC:
CartertellsRUtostop'nuclearsabre-rattling''........[TALESOFTHEDON]Trump'sManManafort:AQuietAmerican(withstrangefriends)CK/AIM:Don-VladBud-shipcouldbe'campaign-
threatening'....
From:hunter@
Subject:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineCartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesCartertellsRUtostop'nuclearsabre-rattling'
To:
To:18:46May.3,2016
U.S.DefenceSecretarysaysheplanstovisitUkraine
U.S.andEuropewillmaintainalongtermpartnershipwithUkraineinsecuritysector,AshtonCarterhopes
DefenceSecretaryAshCarter(APPhoto)
DefenceSecretaryAshCarter(APPhoto) U.S.SecretaryofDefenceAshtonCartersaysheplanstovisitUkraineandissettocontinuetheircooperationinthemilitary
field.
HealsosaidthathepreviouslymetwithhisUkrainiancounterpartStepanPoltorak,andintendstodevelopthese
contacts,reportstheRussianstate-ownednewsagencyTASS.
0Facebook "Their(Ukraine's)DefenceMinister(StepanPoltorak)isaverygoodprofessional,"saidthePentagonchief."Icooperate
withhimagreatdeal,ImethimafewtimesinEuropeandIhopetogothere(toUkraine)."
Twitter
0Google+
Theministerdidnotspecifythedate.
ReadalsoRussiatopsUSsecuritythreatchallenges:DefenceChiefAshtonCarter
Sendviaemail
CarteralsosaidtheU.S.helpsUkrainetrainandequipitsarmedforcesunderthespecialprogram,whichisperformedin
theYavorivshootingrange(westernUkraine).
Accordingtohim,theUnitedStates"isalsopushingitsEuropeanalliestoensuretheydomoreinthisregard."
"IthinkthatweandEuropewillmaintainalongtermpartnershipwithUkraineinthefieldofsecurity",saidtheAmerican
Minister.
FOXNEWS/SECRETARYOFDEFENSE
CartersendsmessagetoMoscow:USreadyto
'defendourallies'

ByLucasTomlinson Facebook253Twitter410livefyre2750EmailPrint

PublishedMay03,2016

FoxNews.com

STUTTGART,GermanyDefenseSecretaryAshCarter,inGermanytousherinanewU.S.militarycommanderforEurope,usedtheopportunityTuesdayto
sendabluntwarningtoMoscownottoprovoketheNATOallianceafterrecentencountersintheairandonthehighseas.
"WedonotseektomakeRussiaanenemy.Butmakenomistakewewilldefendourallies,therules-basedinternationalorder,andthepositivefutureitaffords
us,"CartersaidattheU.S.military'sEuropeanCommandinStuttgart,Germany.
CarterexpressedadesirenottostartanewColdWarwithRussiaora"hot"one.
ButhesaidRussiaseeksto"erode"thepeacefulorderEuropeandtherestoftheWesthaveenjoyedsincetheendoftheColdWar.
Carter,invowingtheU.S.woulddefenditsallies,warnedRussiaisincreasingitssubmarinepatrolstotheNorthAtlantic.Hedidnotspecificallymentionthe
recent"barrelrolls"byRussianjetsoverU.S.militaryaircraftinthepastfewweeksbutaccusedRussia'sleadersof"nuclearsaber-rattling"andputtingtheworld
atriskintheprocess.
TheObamaadministrationsresolvetotakeonRussiaremainsamatterofdispute.PresidentObamawascaughtonanopenmicrophonein2012assuringthen-
PresidentDmitryMedvedevhedhavemoreflexibilityontheissueofmissiledefenseaftertheelection.Russia,underVladimirPutin,laterdefiedU.S.warnings
withitstakeoverofCrimeaandmilitaryinvolvementinEasternUkraineandhascomplicatedU.S.effortsinSyriawithitsinterventionthere.
CarterthisweektraveledtoGermanyfortheinstallationofGen.CurtisScaparrottiatthehelmofU.S.EuropeanCommand.Therearemorethan60,000U.S.
soldiersstationedinEurope,significantlylessthanduringtheColdWar,whenmorethan200,000soldierswerestationedmostlyinGermany.
CartersaidTuesdaythePentagonhaspledged$3.4billioninnextyear'sbudget,quadruplethespendingfromlastyear,tobeefupNATO'seasternflankwithits
allies.CartersaidanewarmoredbrigadewouldbeheadingtoEurope,thoughofficialstoldFoxNewsitwouldnotarriveuntiltheendof2017.
CartersaidtheincreaseinfundswouldsupportanadditionalU.S.AirForceF-15squadron,moreU.S.specialoperationsforcestotraininEurope,andmore
submarine-huntingaircrafttocounterincreasedRussiansubmarineactivity.
"Russiasaggressiveactionsonlyservetofurtheritsisolation,anduniteouralliance,"hesaid.
Russiadoesnotseeitthatway.OfficialsinMoscowbelievetheUnitedStateshasviolateda1997treatythatsaysNATOcannotamassforcesalongtheborder
withRussia.Thetreatydoesnotspecifyhowmanyforcesarepermissible.
EnroutetoGermanyonMonday,CartertoldreporterstheUnitedStatesisconsideringputtingmoreforcesinEasternEurope,butiswaitingtoconsultwith
NATOofficialsbeforeanyfinaldecisionsaremade.Cartersaiduptofourbattalions,orsome4,000soldiers,couldbeaddedtoEasternEurope.
AhandfulofNATOdefenseofficialswillbeonhandforacounter-IslamicStatemeetingWednesdaywithCarterinStuttgart.
DespitesometoughtalkaboutRussia,Carterindicatedheswillingtoworktogetherinthefuture:"WellkeepthedooropenforRussia.ButitsuptotheKremlin
todecide."
OneexampleCarterusedaboutpastU.S.-RussiancooperationwasMoscow'swillingnesstoallowtheUnitedStatesandNATOtouseasupplycorridorin
northernAfghanistanintheyearsfollowingthe9/11terroristattacksandthestartofcombatoperationsagainsttheTalibanandAlQaeda.
ThatcorridorhassincebeenclosedbyRussia.
Inhisremarks,theoutgoingU.S.commanderofEuropeanCommand,Gen.PhilipBreedlove,acareerfighterpilot,saidhiscareerisendingwhereitbegan,with
Russiainhissights.
"MycareerstartedhereinaColdWartryingtokeepthepeace.IthinkmycareerisnowendingheretryingtopreventaColdWarandcontinuetokeepthe
peace,"hesaid.
Hisreplacement,Scaparrotti,wasaskedaboutRussianjetsbuzzingU.S.Navyshipsandaircraft,whenhewasonCapitolHillafewweeksagobeforetheSenate
ArmedServicesCommittee.
"ShouldwemakeanannouncementtotheRussians,thatiftheyplacethelivesofourmenandwomenonboardNavyshipsindanger,thatwewilltake
appropriateaction?"committeeChairmanJohnMcCain,R-Ariz.,asked.
"Ibelievethatshouldbeknown,yes,"Scaparrottisaid.
LucasTomlinsonisthePentagonandStateDepartmentproducerforFoxNewsChannel.YoucanfollowhimonTwitter:@LucasFoxNews
BBC
USaccusesRussiaofnuclearsabre-rattling,amidNatotensions
5hoursago
FromthesectionEurope
ImagecopyrightGetty
ImagesImagecaptionTheUSSDonaldCookwasbuzzedbytwoRussianjetsovertheBalticSealastmonth
USDefenceSecretaryAshCarterhasaccusedRussiaof"nuclearsabre-rattling"andofbeingintentonerodinginternationalorder.
HesaidheregrettedstrainedrelationswithMoscowbutsaidtheUShadto"prioritisedeterrence"onNato'seasternflank.
US-RussiantieshavebeenstrainedbytheUkrainecrisisandrecentmilitaryencountersintheBalticSea.
RussiahasaccusedNatoofthreateningitsnationalsecurity.
SpeakingduringaceremonyattheUSEuropeanCommandHeadquartersinGermany,MrCartersaidRussiawas"goingbackwardsintime".
ButMrCartersaid:"Wedonotseekacold,letaloneahotwarwithRussia."
Nuclearthreats:AnalysisbyJonathanMarcus,BBCdefencecorrespondent
MrCarter'swarningaboutRussia'snuclearsabre-rattlingisameasureofhowpoorrelationsarebetweenNatoandMoscow.
AtrootisRussia'sannexationoftheCrimeaanditsmilitaryoperationsineasternUkraine.ButMoscowseesNato'sresponse-awholeseriesofreinforcedexercisesinPolandandthe
BalticrepublicsalongwithadditionalUSarmourstock-piledinEurope-asyetanotherexpansionofthealliance'sactivitiestowardsitsownborders.
RussiahasexplicitlywarnedDenmarkthatitswarshipscouldbecomethetargetofnuclearstrikesifitjoinsNato'sballisticmissiledefencesystemandsimilarthreatshavebeenmadeto
NorwayandPoland.
Russiaissignificantlymodernisingitsnucleararsenal.IthasalsodeployedIskander-MnuclearcapablemissilestoitsKaliningradenclave.This,alongwithincreasinglyaggressiveRussian
airpatrols,isonlyencouragingNatotoenhanceitsowndeterrentcapability.
"WedonotseektomakeRussiaanenemy.Butmakenomistake,wewilldefendourallies,therules-basedinternationalorder,andthepositivefutureitaffordsus."
Headded:"Moscow'snuclearsabre-rattlingraisestroublingquestionsaboutRussia'sleaders'commitmenttostrategicstability,theirrespectfornormsagainsttheuseofnuclearweapons,
andwhethertheyrespecttheprofoundcautionthatnuclear-ageleadersshowedwithregardtobrandishingnuclearweapons."
MrCarteroutlinedplanstodeployathirdUSArmycombatbrigadeinEuropeinthecomingyear.
Hesaiditwaspartofa$3.4bn(2.3bn)initiativetoreassureNatoalliesofUScommitmenttotheirsecurityandtodeterRussianaggression.
"Wehaven'thadtoprioritisedeterrenceonNato'seasternflankforthepast25years,butwhileIwishitwereotherwise,nowwehaveto,"hesaid.
ImagecopyrightGetty
ImagesImagecaptionTheUSsaysitistodeploymoretroopstoEuropetoworkalongsideNatoallies
RelationsbetweenRussiaandtheWestdeterioratedafterRussiaannexedUkraine'sCrimearegionin2014.
UkraineandtheWesthaveaccusedRussiaofcovertlybackingpro-RussianrebelswhonowcontrolmuchofeasternUkraine.Russiastronglydeniestheclaims.
Lastweek,theUSaccusedaRussianjetfighterofaggressivelyinterceptingaUSAirForcereconnaissanceplaneovertheBalticSea.ItsaidtheRussianjethadperformedabarrelroll.
Earlierlastmonth,twoRussianplanesflewclosetoaUSguidedmissiledestroyeralmostadozentimesintheBaltic.
Russia'senvoytoNatosaidthedestroyerhadsailedclosetotheRussianenclaveofKaliningradinanattempt"toexercisemilitarypressureonRussia".
Correspondentssaysuchencountershaveraisedfearsofafull-onconfrontation,beitdeliberateoraccidental,betweentheworld'stwogreatmilitarypowers.
---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:<sbabs52@verizon.net>
Subject:TheQuietAmerican
To:DOCKER50@aol.com,ozwdmytrenko@gmail.com,peterterr@yahoo.com,peterpolny@aol.com,PWolowacz@aol.com,wwilczak@msn.com,hryckowianstan@yahoo.com,
waz2102@caa.columbia.edu,george.woloszyn@rhmr.com,Andrika16@aol.com
InterestingreadingmaterialtyingManafortwithUkraine'sOligarchsandYanukovich,andManafort'sconnectionwithTrumpgoingbackto
theAtlanticCitycasinodays.(PublishedbySlateMagazine04-28-16)
TheQuietAmerican
PaulManafortmadeacareeroutofstealthilyreinventingtheworldsnastiesttyrantsasnoble 6.3k
defendersoffreedom.GettingDonaldTrumpelectedwillbeacinch. 1.1k
ByFranklinFoer 584
DonaldTrumpspoliticalstrategistPaulManafort,left,withformerpresidentialcandidateBenCarsonatacampaignreceptiononApril21in
Hollywood,Florida.
JoeRaedle/GettyImages
Mar-a-Lago,DonaldTrumpspalace,isimpressivebythestandardsofPalmBeachlesssowhenjudgedagainsttheabodesoftheworldsautocrats.Itdoesnt,
forinstance,quitecomparewithMezhyhirya,thegildedestateofdeposedUkrainianPresidentVictorYanukovych.Trumpmayhave33bathroomsandthreebomb
shelters,buthismansionlacksaherdofostrich,agalleonparkedinapond,andasetofgoldengolfclubs.Yetthetwopropertiesarelinked,notjustinostentatious
spirit,butbythepresenceofoneman.TrumpandYanukovychhavesharedthesamepoliticalbrain,anoperativenamedPaulManafort.
Ukrainiansusethetermpoliticaltechnologistasafavoredsynonymforelectoralconsultant.TrumpturnedtoManafortforwhatseemedatfirstatechnicaltask:
Manafortknowshowtobullwhipandwheedledelegatesatacontestedconvention.Hesdoneitbefore,assistingGeraldFordinstiflingRonaldReagans
insurgencyattheGOPssummerclassicof1976.Intheconventionsthatfollowed,theRepublicanPartyoftenhandedManafortcontroloftheprogramand
instructedhimtostage-managetheshow.Heproducedthemorning-in-Americaconventionof1984andtheBobDolenostalgia-thonof1996.
GivenManafortsexperienceandskillset,itnevermadesensethathewouldbelimitedtosuchanarrowalbeitcrucialtaskasdelegateaccumulation.Indeed,it
didnttakelongbeforeheattemptedtoseizecontroloftheTrumpoperationmanagingthebudget,buyingadvertising,steeringTrumptowardateleprompterand
awayfromflaminghisopponents,appearingonairasaprimarysurrogate.
SomesawthehiringofManafortasdesperate,asTrumpreachingforarelicfromthedistantpastinthebelatedhopeofcompensatingforahaphazardcampaign
infrastructure.Infact,securingManafortwasacoup.Heisamongthemostsignificantpoliticaloperativesofthepast40years,andoneofthemosteffective.He
hasrevolutionizedlobbyingseveraltimesover,thoughheself-consciouslyrefrainsfrombroadcastinghisinfluence.Unlikehisoldbusinesspartners,RogerStone
andLeeAtwater,youwouldneverdescribeManafortasflamboyant.Hestaysinluxuryhotels,butordersroomserviceandchurnsoutmemos.Whenhedoes
venturefromhissuitefordinnerwithagroup,hellsitattheendofthetableandsaynexttonothing,givingtheimpressionthathereserveshisexpensiveopinions
forprivateconversationswithhisclients.Manafortisapersonwhodoesntnecessarilyshowhimself.Theresnothingegotisticalabouthim,saystheeconomist
AndersAslund,whoadvisedtheUkrainiangovernment.ThelateWashingtonPostcolumnistMaryMcGrorydescribedhimashavingasmooth,noncommittal
manner,thoughshealsonotedhisaggrievedbrowneyes.DespitehisdecadesofamassinginfluenceinWashingtonandotherglobalcapitals,hesneverbeen
thesubjectofafullmagazineprofile.Hedistributesquotestothepressatthetimeandplaceofhischoosing,whichpriortohisarrivalontheTrumpcampaign,was
almostnever.(Indeed,hedidnotrespondtorequeststocommentforthisstory.)
Hisworknecessarilyentailssecrecy.AlthoughhisclientlisthasincludedchunksoftheFortune500,hehasalsobuiltaboomingbusinessworkingwithdictators.
AsRogerStonehasboastedabouttheirnow-disbandedfirm:Black,Manafort,Stone,andKelly,linedupmostofthedictatorsoftheworldwecouldfind.
Dictatorsareintheeyeofthebeholder.ManaforthadaspecialgiftforchanginghowdictatorsarebeheldbyAmericaneyes.Hewouldrecastthemasnoble
heroesveneratedbyWashingtonthinktanks,delugedwithmoneyfromCongress.
PlayingtenniswithYanukovychatMezhyhiryamighthavebeentheculminationofManafortslongcareer.HespentnearlysevenyearscommutingtoKiev.Overthat
stretch,heremadeUkrainianpoliticsandhelpedshiftthecountryintoVladimirPutinssphereofinfluence.Itwasanimpressiveachievement,atleastaccordingto
theethicalcalculusthatgovernsManafortsworld.ButthenalongcameDonaldTrumpanotheroligarchindesperateneedofhisservices.
***
ThegenesisofDonaldTrumpsrelationshipwithPaulManafortbeginswithRoyCohn.ThatRoyCohn:JoeMcCarthysheavy-liddedhenchman,lawyertothe
Genovesefamily.Duringthe70s,TrumpandhisfatherhiredCohnastheirlawyertodefendthefamilyagainstahousingdiscriminationsuit.(Cohnaccusedthe
FedsofusingGestapo-liketactics.)ButCohnandTrumpbecamegenuinepals,lunchingattheFourSeasonsandclubbingtogetheratStudio54.ItwasRoy
CohnwhointroducedStoneandManaforttoTrump.
Duringthosediscoyears,StoneandManafortweretetheredtogether.TheywerebothkidsfromConnecticut,attendingcollegesinWashington,thoughthey
couldnthavebeenmoredifferent.Stonelovedattentionandgarnereditwiththeatricalflair.Hewasabadboy,soi-disant.AsastudentatGeorgeWashington
University,StonemoonlightedfortheNixoncampaignandgravitatedtoJebMagruder,deputydirectoroftheCommitteetoRe-ElectthePresident.Dirtytricks
camenaturallytoStone.HeassumedapseudonymandmadecontributionsonbehalfoftheYoungSocialistAlliancetooneofNixonspotentialchallengers.He
hiredspiestoinfiltratetheMcGoverncampaign.Stonewasntshyabouthishandiwork.Infact,hewasntshyaboutanything.Helovedtositforinterviewsand
vamp.StoneisabodybuildingfanaticwhoposedshirtlessintheNewYorker.Thephotocapturedhisimplantedhair,butnotthetattooofRichardNixononhis
back.
Manaforthadaverydifferentmentor.Hestudiedunderthefuturesecretaryofstate,JamesA.BakerIII,whowieldedhisknifewiththedisciplineofaMarineandthe
polishofaPrincetonian.ItwasagoodfitforManafort,whosharedhismentorspragmaticconservatismandhisthirstforpolitics.(Hisfatherspentsixyearsasthe
mayorofNewBritain,Connecticut,aRepublicanwhoflourishedinDemocraticterrain.)Baker,anavidcollectorofyoungtalent,hadmanagedGeraldFordsre-
electioncampaign.ThatswherehespottedManafortandanointedhimaidedecamp.WhenBakerneededhisownmanagerforhis1978campaigntobecome
attorneygeneralofTexas,hetappedManafort.TheexperienceofwhisperinginBakersearleftalastingimpression.PaulmodeledhimselfafterBaker,oneofhis
friendstoldme.
DespitehisYankeestock,ManafortranReagansSouthernoperation,theraciallytingedappealthatinfamouslybeganinPhiladelphia,Mississippi,thehamlet
wherecivilrightsactivistsweremurderedin1964.Thesuccessofthe1980campaigngaveStoneandManafortcachet.Moreimportant,theyhelpedrunReagans
transitiontopower.Theystockedtheadministration,distributingjobsacrosstheagenciesandaccumulatingowedfavorsthatwouldprovidethebasisfortheirnew
lobbyingbusiness.Theyopenedtheirdoorsin1981.
ManafortandStonepioneeredanewstyleoffirm,whatKStreetwouldcometocalladouble-breastedoperation.Onewingoftheshopmanagedcampaigns,
electingagenerationofRepublicans,fromPhilGrammtoArlenSpector.Theotherwinglobbiedtheofficialstheyhelpedtovictoryonbehalfofitscorporateclients.
Overthecourseoftheirearlyyears,theyamassedaraftofblue-chipbenefactors,includingSalomonBrothersandRupertMurdochsNewsCorp.
AnotherearlyclientwasDonaldJ.Trump.WhatTrumpwantedwashelpfendingoffpotentialrivalstohisAtlanticCitycasinobusiness.Heespeciallyfearedtherise
ofIndiangaming.Asthe2016campaignhasgraphicallyillustrated,Trumpdoesnttreatrivalsgently.Testifyingbeforeacongressionalcommitteein1993,he
beganwithhisroteprotestationsoffriendship.NobodylikesIndiansasmuchasDonaldTrump.Hethenproceededtoworrythatthetribeswouldproveunableto
fendoffgangsters.ThereisnowayIndiansaregoingtoprotectthemselvesfromthemob...Itwillbethebiggestscandalever,thebiggestsinceAlCaponeAn
IndianchiefisgoingtotellJoeyKillertopleasegetoffhisreservation?Itsunbelievabletome.
TrumppouredmoneyintoashellgroupcalledtheNewYorkInstituteforLawandSociety.ThegroupexistedsolelytopublishadssmearinghispotentialIndian
competition.Underdarkphotosofneedlesandotherjunkieparaphernalia,thegroupasserted,TheSt.RegisMohawkIndianrecordofcriminalactivityiswell
documented.(Itwasnt.)Arethesethenewneighborswewant?WeknowthatTrumpandStonewerebehindtheNewYorkInstitutebecauseGov.GeorgePataki
investigateditsdoings.HeslappedTrumpandStonewitha$250,000fineandrequiredthemtopubliclyapologizeforrunningtheads.
ManafortdidntowntheTrumpaccountatthefirm.Butoneofhisformerpartnerstoldmethathewoulddispenseadviceandpitchin,winningTrumpstrust.When
ManaforttookanapartmentinTrumpTowersin2006,hewouldkibitzwithhisoldclientwhentheydrunintooneanotherontheelevator.Trumpknewthisguywas
topdrawer,saysoneRepublicanoperative.
***
ManafortandStonebuiltaglamourfirm.TheBlackinitsnamebelongedtoCharlesBlack,whoasa25-year-oldlaunchedtheSenatecareerofJesseHelms.Later,
theyluredLeeAtwater,theevilgeniuswhowoulddevisetheWillieHortongambitforGeorgeH.W.Bush.Thefirmhadswagger.Intheearly80s,thepartnersspoke
openlytotheWashingtonPostoftheirannual$450,000salaries.AccordingtotheconsultantEdRollins,Blackwouldlaterboastthatthefirmhadschemedtogain
cartel-likecontrolofthe1988Republicanpresidentialprimary.Theymanagedallofthemajorcampaigns.AtwatertookBushBlackranDoleStonehandledJack
Kemp.AcongressionalstafferjokedtoareporterfromTime,Whyhaveprimariesforthenomination?WhynothavethecandidatesgoovertoBlack,Manafortand
Stoneandargueitout?
Manafortactivelyavoidedthespotlight,thoughhehadaknackforgarneringunwantedattention.Hetookonclientsandcausesthatevenmostofhiscolleagueson
KStreetconsideredoutsidetheusualbounds.Black,Manafort,andStonehiredalumnioftheDepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopmentthenusedthose
connectionstowin$43millioninmoderaterehabilitationfundsforarenovationprojectinUpperDeerfield,NewJersey.Localofficialshadnointerestinthegrants,
astheyconsideredtheshambleofcinderblockslongpastthepointofrepair.ThemoneyflowedfromHUDregardless,anddeveloperspaidManafortsfirma
$326,000feeforitshandiwork.Helaterboughta20percentshareintheproject.Twoyearslater,rentsdoubledwithoutanysignofimprovement.Conditions
remained,inMaryMcGroryswords,strictlyThirdWorld.Itwassuchanoutrageousscamthatcongressmenflockedtomakeaspectacleofit.Manafortcalmly
tookhisflaying.Youmightcallitinfluence-peddling.Icallitlobbying,heexplainedinonehearing.Thatsadefinitionaldebate.
Strangely,theHUDscandalprovedamarketingboonforthefirm.AnaidetoMobutuSeseSekotoldthejournalistArtLevine,Thatonlyshowshowimportantthey
are!Indeed,ManafortenticedtheAfricandictatortohirethefirm.Manyoftheworldsdictatorseventuallybecamehisclients.NameadictatorandBlack,Manafort
willnametheaccount,Levinewrote.(Levinespiece,publishedinSpy,featuredasidebarrankingtheethicalbehaviorofWashingtonlobbyists:ItfoundBlack,
Manaforttheworstofthebunch.)TheclientlistincludedPhilippinestrongmanFerdinandMarcos(witha$900,000yearlycontract)andthedespotsofthe
DominicanRepublic,Nigeria,Kenya,EquatorialGuinea,andSomalia.WhentheCenterforPublicIntegritydetailedthefirmswork,ittitledthereportThe
TorturersLobby.
Indeed,thefirmwasanall-purposeimage-buffingoperation.AstheWashingtonPosthasreported,Manafortcouldbookhisclientson60MinutesorNightline
andcoachthemtomaketheirbestpitch.HelobbiedCongressforforeignaidthatflowedtohisclientscoffers.Hemightevenprovideafewchoicepiecesof
adviceabouttampingdowndomesticcritics.Manafortunderstoodthemindsetofthedictatorwasntsodifferentfromhiscorporateclients.Accordingtoone
proposalunearthedbycongressionalinvestigators,thefirmboastedofpersonalrelationshipswithadministrationofficialsandpromisedtoupgrade
backchannelstotheU.S.government.
Thiswasntemptyrhetoric.OnaFridayin1985,ChristopherLehmanlefthisjobattheNationalSecurityCouncil.ThefollowingMonday,hewasflyingwith
Manafort,hisnewboss,tothebushofAngolatopitchtheChinese-trainedguerillaJonasSavimbi,whowantedcovertassistancefromtheU.S.tobolsterhis
rebellionagainstAngolasMarxistgovernment.SavimbibrieflyleftabattleagainstCubanassaultforcesandsigneda$600,000contract.
ThemoneyboughtSavimbiarevisedreputation.DespitehisclientsMaoistbackground,Manafortreinventedhimasafreedomfighter.Heknewallthetricksfor
manipulatingright-wingopinion.SavimbiwassenttoaseminarattheAmericanEnterpriseInstitute,hostedbytheanticommuniststalwartJeanneKirkpatrick,a
receptionthrownbytheHeritageFoundation,andanotherconfabatFreedomHouse.(KirkpatrickintroducedSavimbi,whoconscriptedsoldiers,burnedenemies,
andindiscriminatelylaidlandmines,asalinguist,philosopher,poet,politician,warrior...oneofthefewauthenticheroesofourtime.)
Manafortscampaignworkedwonders.HislobbyinghelpedconvinceCongresstosendSavimbihundredsofmillionsincovertaid.Indeed,everytimeAngola
stoodontheprecipiceofpeacetalks,Manafort,Blackworkedtogenerateafreshroundofarmsshipmentsthatmanyexpertsbelieveextendedtheconflict.Sen.
BillBradleywasbluntinassigningblame.WhenGorbachevpulledtheplugonSovietaidtotheAngolangovernment,wehadabsolutelynoreasontopersistin
aidingSavimbi.ButbythenhehadhiredaneffectiveWashingtonlobbyingfirm,whichsuccessfullyobtainedfurtherfunding.OrasArtLevineconcluded,Sothe
warlastedanothertwomoreyearsandclaimedafewthousandmorelives!Sowhat?WhatcountstoaWashingtonlobbyististheabilitytodeliveratangiblevictory
andspruceuphisclientsimage.
***
PaulManafort,afterTrumpdeliveredhisforeignpolicyspeechattheMayflowerHotelinWashington,D.C.,April27,2016.
JimBourg/Reuters
WhopaysPaulManafort?Thequestioncanbedevilishlydifficulttoanswer.HedoesntalwaysfiletheformsdemandedbytheForeignAgentsRegistrationAct.
Andhemaynotevenneedtodisclosewhocutshischecks.Thelawisporous,andovertimerevisionsintheacthavecreatedvariouswaysforlobbyiststohide
theirdeeds.LikeHenryKissinger,Manafortcanclaimthathemerelyconsultswithforeigngovernments,relievinghimofthelegalburdenofannouncinghis
benefactors.
MoneyarrivestoManafortcircuitously,sometimesthroughthedodgiestofroutes.Weknowthisbecauseheadmittedoneinstancetoinvestigators.Iftheresone
placeontheplanetinhospitabletoAmericanpoliticalconsultants,itisFrance.SowhenManafortwroteacampaignstrategyforEduoardBalladurspresidential
campaignin1995,hisrolewaskeptfromthepublic.Paymentstraveledbeneaththetable.Infact,theFrenchinvestigationrevealed,themoneycamefromagood
friendandoldclientofManaforts,aLebanesearmsdealercalledAbdulRahmanal-Assir.(ManaforttookAssirtoGeorgeH.WBushsinaugurationin1989Assir
onceloanedManafort$250,000,astheWashingtonPostreportedthisweek).
Manafortsfeewasasmallpieceofalargerkickbackscheme.Atleast$200,000cametoManafort,someofitviaaccountsinMadrid.Itwaspartofadeal
brokeredbyAssir.HearrangedforFrancetosellPakistanthreeAgostasubmarineswithtensofmillionsofeurosincommissionsreturningtothecoffersofthe
Balladurcampaign.Thescandal,knowninFranceastheKarachiAffair,hashoveredoverthecountryspoliticseversinceitbrokein2010.(TheEnglishex-
wifeofanotherFranco-LebanesearmsdealerinvolvedinlaffairrevealedtheManafortpaymentstoaFrenchjudge.)
ItwasnttheonlytimethatManafortreceivedmoneyfromthePakistanis.MichaelIsikoffhasreportedthatManafortwaspaid$700,000bytheKashmiriAmerican
CouncilostensiblyagrassrootsorganizationadvocatingagainstIndiancontrolofthecontestedborderland.Fundingforthegroup,however,camefromPakistani
intelligence.TheassistantU.S.attorneywhoinvestigatedtheKashmiriAmericanCouncilhascalleditafalseflagoperation.Manafortflewhisownfalseflagsin
thenameofhisstealthclient.In1993,hetraveledtoKashmirtoobtainfootageforavideohisfirmwasproducingonbehalfofthePakistanis.Theworkentailed
interviewingIndianofficials,whowouldhavenevergrantedaccessifManafortannouncedhistruepurpose.Togetinthedoor,heliedabouthisidentity,tellingthe
IndiansthatheworkedforCNN.Manaforthasdeniedthatheevermisrepresentedhimself,buthesooffendedtheIndiangovernmentthataspokesmanforits
foreignministryissuedapublicrebuke:Thewholethingwasobviouslyablatantoperationofproducingtelevisionsoftwarewithadeliberateandparticularlyanti-
IndianslantbylobbyistshiredbyPakistanforthisverypurpose.
***
AmongtheRepublicanestablishment,thereshopethatManafortwillprovetheturnaroundartistwhofixesthemessoftheTrumpcampaign,givingita
professionalismthatnobodycouldhaveexpected.Indeed,hehasatrackrecordofsuccessfullymakingovercandidates,thoughhisgreatestsuccesscameinan
entirelydifferentpoliticalecosystem.
In2005,theUkrainianoligarchRinatAhmetovsummonedManaforttoKiev.AhmetovhailedfromDonetsk,theRussian-orientedheavy-industryeastofthecountry.
Ahmetovhadcauseforpanic.Thebestpoliticalhopeforhisregion,and,moretothepoint,hisownbusinessinterests,wasagruffpoliticiancalledVictor
Yanukovych.Asateen,Yanukovychspentthreeyearsinprisonforrobberyandassault.Afterhisrelease,hewasagainarrestedforassault.Noneofthispast
historytheseyouthfulmistakes,whichheonceinstructedtheKGBtoexpungefromhisrecordslowedhisrisethroughthepoliticalranks.In2002,heserveda
briefstintasprimeministerinascleroticpro-Russiangovernment,miredincorruptionscandals.
WhenAhmetovsummonedManafort,in2005,hiscandidatehadsufferedacrushingdefeat.YanukovychhadjustrunforpresidentofUkraine,acampaignthat
involvedrampantfraudandthepossiblepoisoningofhisopponentwithdioxin.Hisbidendedinmassiveprotestsagainsthimandhiscrudeattemptstooverturn
thewillofthepeople.Theprotests,theOrangeRevolution,wereaburstofoptimismthatUkrainemighttranscenditspastandtakeitsseatasaEuropean-style
democracy.TheyshouldhavedestroyedYanukovychscareer.
FormerprimeministerofUkraineViktorYanukovich,onApril2,2004.
SergeiSupinsky/AFP/GettyImages
Yanukovychseemedahopelesscase.Akleptocraticgoon,apigwhowouldnttakelipstickishowoneAmericanconsultantwhoworkedinUkrainedescribed
him.YetManafortsawhope,aswellasahandsomepaycheck.DespiteYanukovychsSovietstyle,Manafortconsideredhimpoliticalclaythatcouldbemolded.He
sawrawtalentwhereothersdidntandheshapeditbrilliantly,oneformerStateDepartmentofficialtoldme.ManafortsetaboutgivingYanukovychanewlook:well-
tailoredsuits,shirtsandtiesthatmatched,ahaircutthattamedhisragingbouffant.Manaforttaughtthepolafewsimplelessonsthathelpedsanddownhisedges.
Heshowedhimhowtowavetoacrowd,ratherthankeephisarmslockedtohissides.Heinstructedhimtorefrainfromspeakingoffthecuff.Hetaughthimhowto
displayamodicumofempathywhenlisteningtothestoriesofvoters.Ifeelyourpain,Yanukovychwouldnowexclaimathisrallies.OneUkrainiancolumnist
cheekilyaskedhisreaderstoidentifythe10elementsofYanukovychralliesthatManaforthadimportedfromtheRepublicanconventionshedrun.
Thebuffedimagewasbornfromopinionsurveys,conductedbyateamofpollstersManafortbroughttoKiev.HefoundthatthehopeoftheOrangeRevolutionhad
curdledintofrustrationwiththegovernmentsincompetence.SoManafortcraftedanewimageofYanukovychbusinesslike,notlikablebutpersistentthatstood
asapragmaticantidotetothehaplessOrangeRevolutionaries.PeoplebelievedthatwhenYanukovychwasprimeminister,therehadbeenanordertothings,
BrianMefford,aUkraine-basedconsultanttoldme.Thatsthesentimenttheytriedtorunon.
Atthesametime,ManafortunderstoodhowtoaccentuatedivisionsintheUkrainianelectorate.HehadoverseenReagansSouthernstrategyheunderstoodthe
powerofculturalpolarization.HispollingshowedthatYanukovychcouldconsolidatehisbasebystokingsubmergedgrievances.Eventhoughtherewaslittle
evidenceofthemistreatmentofRussianlanguagespeakersbytheUkrainianstate,heencouragedhiscandidatetomakeanissueofimaginedabusestorally
theirbase.Tothesameend,heinstructedYanukovychtorageagainstNATO,whichhedidbycondemningjointoperationsthealliancewasconductinginCrimea.
WhenAmericanAmbassadorWilliamTaylorarrivedinKievin2006,hesummonedManaforttoameetinginhisoffice.Manafortwouldbecomeafixtureinthe
officesofAmericanambassadorstoUkraine,theU.S.governmentsprimaryconduittoYanukovychandthepro-Russiancamp.AsTaylortoldagroupofAmerican
democracyactivistsjustafterthemeeting,hehadaskedManaforttotampdownYanukovychscriticismsofthejointoperationsNATOwasconductingwiththe
Ukrainians.Theimplicationsofhisaskwereclear:TheinterestsofAmericansecuritywerehurtbysuchrhetoric.AmericantoAmerican,Imaskingyoutotalkto
him.Manafortscoffedatthenotion.HebluntlyannouncedthathewouldntaskYanukovychtodialbacktherhetoric.Itpolledtoowell.
Tobefair,ManafortwashardlytheonlyAmericaninYanukovychsorbit.BernieSandersconsultantTadDevinewenttoworkforhimin2009.Ukrainiansspent
heavilyinWashington,hiringasmallarmyoftop-drawerRepublicanlobbyists,includingformercongressmenVinWeberandBillyTauzin,tobolsterYanukovychs
imageinWashingtonandultimatelystaveoffAmericansupportforUkrainiandemocracy.ButManafortsetupthelargestshopinKiev,housedinawell-guarded
officejustoffIndependenceSquare.Duringelections,hisoperationswelledtosixAmericanconsultants,inadditiontoUkrainiantranslatorsanddrivers.He
procuredaspecialroleintheYanukovychcamp.AndersAslundtoldme,ManafortbecameYanukovychsclosestpoliticaladvisor.
***
In2005,JohnMcCainreceivedacallfromastafferontheNationalSecurityCouncil.Therewasaproblem,thestaffertoldthesenator.Themanorchestrating
McCainspresidentialcampaignwasPaulManafortspartner,alobbyistnamedRickDavis.Theadministrationwantedthesenatorshelpdialingbacktheduos
workinUkraine,twotopMcCainaidestoldme.BypromotingenemiesoftheOrangeRevolution,theywereunderminingAmericanpolicy.
ThecallcameafterManafortandDavishadalreadydrawnMcCainintotheireasternescapades.ItwasntjustUkraine.Thatyear,thepairhadconsultedonbehalf
ofpro-independenceforcesinthetinyprincipalityofMontenegro,whichwantedtoexitSerbiaandbecomeitsownsovereignrepublic.Onthesurface,thissounded
nobleenough,sonoblethatMcCaincalledMontenegrosindependencethegreatestEuropeandemocracyprojectsincetheendoftheColdWar.
AreportintheNation,however,showedthattheMontenegrincampaignwasntremotelywhatMcCaindescribed.Theindependenceinitiativewaschampionedby
afantasticallywealthyRussianmogulcalledOlegDeripaska.Deripaskahadparochialreasonsforpromotingindependence.HehadjustpurchasedMontenegros
aluminumindustryandintendedtobuybroaderswathsofitseconomy.ButhewasalsodoingthebiddingofVladimirPutin,onwhosegoodgracesthefateofall
Russianbusinessultimatelyhangs.TheNationquotedDeripaskaboastingthattheKremlinwantedanareaofinfluenceintheMediterranean.
ManafortandDavisdidntjustsnookerMcCainintotrumpetingtheirclientscausetheyendangeredhimpolitically,byarrangingaseriesofmeetingswith
Deripaska,whotheU.S.hadbarredfromenteringthecountrybecauseofhistiestoorganizedcrime.In2006,theysteeredMcCaintoattendadinnerwiththe
oligarchatachaletnearDavos,whereDeripaskaspeechifiedforthe40orsoguests.(TheWashingtonPostreportedthattheoligarchsentDavisandManaforta
thank-younoteforarrangingtoseethesenatorinsuchanintimatesetting.)Sevenmonthslater,ManafortandDavistookMcCaintocelebratehis70thbirthday
withDeripaskaonayachtmooredintheAdriatic.
NoteveryonewithintheMcCaincampfeltcomfortablewiththisrelationship.OnegroupofaidespushedhardforMcCaintofireRickDavisforsullyingthesenator
withthefirmsmuck.McCainintendedtodojustthat.ThesenatorhadbackedthecauseofUkrainiandemocracyandhecouldntstomachhistopaidesfirm
workingtoundermineit.Whatsmore,aideshadcometoMcCainwiththerumorthatDeripaskahadpurchasedanapartmentinTrumpTowerforDavisand
Manafort.Butinthemoment,McCainlosthisnerve,ashisaideshaverecountedtheepisode.Davissuppliedatear-filledsoliloquythatsavedhisjob.Ricksplea
somehowworkedandthatwastherootofthedivisionsthattoreapartthecampaign,oneofMcCainstopadviserstoldme.
ItwasjustunsubstantiatedhearsaythatDeripaskahadpaidforManafortsflat.YetMcCainaideswererighttosuspecttherelationship.ManafortandDaviswere
hungryfortheoligarchscash.AstheWashingtonPostreported,theyevenconvincedDeripaskatoinvestina$200millionprivateequityfundtheycreated.For
theirefforts,DeripaskapaidDavis,Manafort,andanotheroneoftheirpartnersa$7.5millionmanagementfee.Butapparentlytheydidntdoverymuchmanaging,
orinvestingeither.WhenDeripaskaaskedforanauditofthefundin2008,ManafortandDavisneverdeliveredone.Infact,accordingtoacomplaintthat
Deripaskafiledincourt,DavisandManafortprovidednoadditionalupdates.Deripaskawasdesperatetogethismoneybackwhich,thePostnoted,coincided
withManafortsstrangedisappearancefrompublicview.Atthetime,RogerStonewrotefriendsacrypticemailtitled,WheresPaulManafort?Hesupplieda
multiple-choicesetofanswersincludingWasseenchauffeuringYanukovycharoundMoscowandWasseenloadinggoldbulliononanArmyTransportplanefrom
aremoteairstripoutsideKievandtakingoffsecondsbeforeamobarrivedatthesite.
DeripaskawasnttheonlydubiousoligarchtoinvestwithManafort.HeorchestratedamajordealwithaUkrainiancalledDmitryFirtash.Afiremanandsoldier,
Firtashfoundwaystoflourishinthepost-Sovieteconomyasamiddleman,sellingnaturalgasbyhisownadmission,hedidsothankstohisconnectionswith
SeymonMogilevich,theRussianMafiasbossofbosses.
ButhiscrucialconnectionwastoVladimirPutin.FirtashsgrandschemewasdetailedinathoroughinvestigationpublishedbyReuters.Gazprom,theRussian
state-ownednaturalgasconglomerate,wouldselltoFirtashatadeepdiscount.Firtash,inturn,resoldthegastotheUkrainiangovernment,investingtheprofitin
fundingforpro-Putinpoliticians,includingVictorYanukovych.
ReuterswasbluntindescribingtheperniciouseffectofFirtashsdealings:
ItdemonstrateshowPutinusesRussianstateassetstocreatestreamsofcashforpoliticalallies,andhowheexportedthismodeltoUkraineinanattempt
todominatehisneighbour,whichheseesasvitaltoRussiasstrategicinterests.WiththehelpofFirtash,Yanukovichwonpowerandwentontorule
Ukraineforfouryears.TherelationshiphadgreatgeopoliticalvalueforPutin:Yanukovichendedupsteeringthenationofmorethan44millionawayfrom
theWestsorbitandtowardsMoscowsuntilhewasoverthrowninFebruary.
AfterFirtashmadebillionsoffthescheme,heandManafortpartneredtobuythesiteoftheoldDrakeHotelonParkAvenue.WithalongtimeTrumpfamilyaide
andthedeveloperArthurCohen,ManafortandFirtashhatchedagrandplan.TheycalledtheirprojecttheBulgariTower,anditwouldfeatureamall,privateclub,
andspa.Oratleastthatswhattheydescribedintheirplans.In2008,Firtashwired$25milliontoNewYorktobankrolltheproject.Accordingtocourtdocuments,
healsosetupa$100millioninvestmentfund,payingManafortandhispartnersa$1.5millionfeeformanagingthemoney.
ItwasagoodmomentforFirtashtoparkhiscashinManhattan.Hisarch-enemyYuliaTymoshenko,anoldnaturalgasbrokerherself,hadcometopowerayear
earlier.ShemovedaggressivelyagainstFirtash,whosecompanyshedescribedasawartonthebody.ShecutherowndealwithPutinforthesupplyofenergy,
eliminatingFirtashfromthebusiness.Andsheseizedhismassivestockpileofgas,effectivelynationalizingthesourceofhisfortune.
DefeatingTymoshenkothusbecameFirtashsprimarygoalinlife.HespentheavilyonYanukovychscampaignagainstherin2010.FortunatelyforFirtash,
Manafortwasonthejob.WhentheconsultantfirstarrivedinKiev,Yanukovychwasthesubjectofnearuniversalderision.ButhisyearsofgroomingYanukovych,and
perfectinghispoliticalmachinery,carriedhimtovictoryanarrowwinrootedinthemisstepsofhisopponents,butonethatwouldhaveneverhappenedwithout
skilledreinvention.Marvelingatthisaccomplishment,theUkranianjournalistMustafaNayeemwrotethatManafortwastheonlypersonwhoreallyadaptedto
Ukrainianpoliticalreality.
AssoonasYanukovychcametopower,herestoredFirtashsbusiness.Mostimportant,thenewgovernmentsettledalawsuitthatFirtashhadfiledobjectingto
Tymoshenkosseizureofhisgas.Aspartofthesettlement,thegovernmenthanded$3billionworthofnaturalgastoFirtash:hisoldstashplusanextrabillioncubic
metersofgasthrownintothedealascompensationforhistroubles.DerSpiegel,whichreviewedthetextofthesettlement,concluded,ViktorYanukovych,the
presidentofUkraine,servedthecommercialinterestsofanoligarchwithwhomhehasclosetiesattheexpenseofhisowncountry.And,indoingso,healsodid
Moscowafavor.
AsforBulgariTower,theprojectsputteredandshutteredinJanuary2009.YuliaTymosehnkodidntlikethesmellofthings.ShesuedManafortandFirtashfor
racketeeringintheSouthernDistrictofNewYork.Themoneykeptgoinginandout,herlawyerKennethMcCalliontoldme.Realestatewastheostensiblereason
forsendingmoneytoNewYork.Buttheyneverwantedtocloseontheproject,theywantedtokeepthecashliquid,soitcouldkeepgoingbacktoUkraine.Thesuit
neverhadmuchofachance,becauseitdidntofferenoughsupportingevidencetojustifyitsgrandioseclaim:thatManafortandFirtashwerelaunderingmoneyto
financehumanrightsabusesonagrandscale.Buthercaseraisedallmanneroftroublingquestions,andreinforcedanoldone:WhywouldPaulManafortso
consistentlydothebiddingofoligarchsloyaltoVladimirPutin?
***
ThatshardlyaquestiontobotherDonaldTrump,whohasprofessedhisownadmirationforPutinsbare-chestedleadership.Overmonthsoftweetsandtaunts,
DonaldTrumphasterrifiedmostoftheRepublicanestablishment,whoviewhimasabrand-shatteringelectoraldebacleinthemaking.ButthatspreciselywhyPaul
Manaforthasgravitatedtowardhim,andwhatmakestheclientsuchaperfectmatchfortheconsultant.
TopComment
Myfencingcontractortoldmetodayhe'svotingforTrump.Abitironicsincehe'sHispanicandhisfathercamefromMexico.Alsoironicthathe'sbuildingmea
fence.NowifIcanonlymakehimpayforit.More...
584CommentsJoinIn
Manaforthasspentacareerworkingonbehalfofclientsthattherestofhisfellowlobbyistsandstrategistshavedeemedjustbelowtheirnot-so-highmoral
threshold.Manaforthasconsistentlygivenhisclientsapatinaofrespectabilitythathasallowedthemtomigrateintothemainstreamofopinion,orcloseenoughto
themainstream.Hehasaparticularknackfortakingautocratsandpresentingthemasdefendersofdemocracy.Ifhecouldconvincetherespectableworldthat
thugslikeSavimbiandMarcosarefriendsofAmerica,thenwhynotdothesameforTrump?Oneofhisfriendstoldme,Hewantedtodohisthingonhometurf.He
wantedonelastshotatthebigprize.
Subject:GeneralsWarnofRussianAggressionAsTrumpCoziesUpToPutin
To:"Zaryckyj,Walter"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
GeneralsWarnofRussianAggressionAsTrumpCoziesUpToPutin
ByCliffKincaid
http://www.aim.org/aim-column/generals-warn-of-russian-aggression-as-trump-cozies-up-to-putin/
WhileRepublicanpresidentialcandidateDonaldJ.TrumpistalkingaboutcooperationwithRussia,TheWallStreetJournalisreportingthatoneofAmericastopgenerals,NATO
SupremecommanderGeneralPhilipBreedlove,issayingthattheUnitedStatesanditsallieshavetoimmediatelyaddressRussianmilitaryaggression.
WeseethatRussiahasnotacceptedthehandofpartnershipbuthaschosenapathofbelligerence,Breedloveisquotedbythepaperassaying.Weneedtoreaddresswherewere
heading.BreedloveisretiringasNATOsupremecommanderandcommanderofU.S.EuropeanCommand.
Bycontrast,TrumprecentlygaveaforeignpolicyaddressthatcompletelyignoredRussianaggressioninUkraine,leadingtoawarmreceptioninMoscowfortheRepublicancandidate.
ThecuriousomissionbyTrumpisoneofseveralactionsorstatementshehasmadeonRussianaffairsthatledJonathanChaittowriteanarticleforNewYorkmagazineentitled,WhyIs
DonaldTrumpaPatsyforVladimirPutin?AttemptingtoexplainTrumpsstatementsofsupportforRussianPresidentPutin,hecitedevidenceofRussiascampaigntocultivateinfluence
intheWestbycorruptingmembersoftheAmericanmediaandpoliticalEstablishment.
InadditiontoRussianaggressioninEuropeandtheMiddleEast,Breedlovessuccessor,ArmyGeneralCurtisScaparrotti,saysthatU.S.militaryleadersshouldkeepeverythingonthe
table,includingamilitaryresponse,ifRussiaengagesinmoremilitaryprovocationsdirectlyagainstU.S.forces.SuchincidentshaveincludedRussianfighterjetsharassingU.S.Navy
ships.
ThegeneralsaidthatPutinisdeliberatelytryingtobreakupNATO,apro-AmericanalliancethatTrumphassuggestedisobsolete.
InitsstoryonhowU.S.militaryleadersaregettingincreasinglyconcernedaboutRussiasaggressiveintentions,theJournalexplained,InthewakeofRussiasstealthyinvasionand
annexationofCrimea,theU.S.intelligencecommunity,inparticularmilitaryintelligence,cameunderwitheringcriticismforhavingfailedtoadequatelywarnpolicymakersandmilitary
leaders.
ThetermmilitaryintelligenceismostlyareferencetotheDefenseIntelligenceAgency(DIA),whoseformerdirector,Lt.Gen.MichaelT.Flynn,hascomeunderfireforhisclose
relationshipwiththeRussiaToday(RT)propagandachannel.
AIMwasthefirsttoreportthatFlynn,aftersteppingdownfromDIA,wenttoMoscowtoparticipateinthe10thanniversarycelebrationoftheMoscow-fundedandEnglish-language
channelknowntoitscriticsasKGB-TV.HesatatadinnertablewithPutinandRTeditor-in-chiefMargaritaSimonyan.
InamajorembarrassmentforFlynn,arecentarticleinPoliticobyMichaelCrowleycitedFlynnsrelationshipwithRTasthemostintriguingexampleofhowtheRussianshavegone
aboutrecruitingdisaffectedmembersoftheWashington,D.C.foreignpolicyestablishment.
ThetermrecruitingsuggestsusingFlynnforanti-Americanpropagandapurposes.
Crowley,seniorforeignpolicywriteratPolitico,saidthatFlynnsattendanceattheRTgala,whichalsoincludedremarksonworldaffairs,appearedtoinauguratearelationshipwiththe
networkpresumablyapaidone,thoughneitherFlynnnorRTansweredqueriesonthesubject.Flynnnowmakessemi-regularappearancesonRTasananalyst,inwhichheoftenargues
thattheU.S.andRussiashouldbeworkingmorecloselytogetheronissueslikefightingISILandendingSyriascivilwar.
InadditiontohisrelationshipwithRT,FlynnhasdescribedhimselfasaninformaladvisertoTrump,whoalreadyhasseveralpro-Russianaidesandadvisers.
WewerentfocusedonRussiawhenIcameinthreeyearsagobecausewewerestilltryingtocastaparadigmthatbroughtRussiaintothefoldofWesternvalues,saidBreedlove,inan
attempttoexplainwhythePentagonwascaughtoff-guardbyRussia.Hesaid,Russiachoseadifferentpathortheywereonthatpathandwedidntrecognizeit.
WhatheisdescribingisamassiveintelligencefailurethatcouldstemfromtheworkofagentsofinfluenceforRussia,oractualRussianspies.
Trump,however,continuestopreachcooperationwithRussia.
ThescopeoftheintelligencefailureregardingRussiawasaddressedrecentlybythechairmanoftheHouseIntelligenceCommittee,Rep.DevinNunes(R-CA),whoadmittedtoCNNs
JakeTapperonApril12thattheU.S.governmenthasbadlymisjudgedtheintentionsofPutinformany,manyyears.Hedeclared,Thebiggestintelligencefailurethatwehavehad
since9/11hasbeentheinabilitytopredicttheleadershipplansandintentionsofthePutinregimeinRussia.
AftertheRussianinvasionofGeorgiain2008,Rep.Nunesnoted,theU.S.continuedtoengagediplomaticallywiththeRussians,andwecontinuedtotalktotheRussians,andthenthey
invadedEasternUkraine.Wemissedthat,hesaid.Andthenwecompletelymissedentirelywhentheyputanewbase,anewbasewithaircraftintotheMediterranean,intoSyria.We
justmissedit.Wewereblind.
WhileTrumpsspeechwasgiventoanaudienceofforeignpolicyexperts,includingRussia'sambassadortoWashington,SergeyKislyakwhowassittinginthefrontrowtheformer
DIAdirectorspro-Moscowactionsandstatementsarealsogeneratingcontroversy.ThePoliticoarticleonFlynnsvisittoMoscowsaid,Atamomentofsemi-hostilitybetweentheU.S.
andRussia,thepresenceofsuchanimportantfigureatPutinstablestartledcurrentandformermembersoftheObamaadministration.
PoliticosMichaelCrowleyquotedaformerPentagonofficialassayingaboutFlynn,ItwasextremelyoddthatheshowedupinatuxedototheRussiangovernmentpropagandaarms
party.
EvenmoresignificantistheverdictdeliveredbyNewYorkmagazinesChaitregardingTrumphimself.HesaysthatwhileTrumpsstyleandbombasticstatementsonforeignpolicyand
otherareasareconsideredcontroversialbysome,themuchbiggerscandalmaybethatTrumpisVladimirPutinsstooge.ThestorycarriedtheimplicationthatTrumpisactinglikean
agentofinfluenceforPutinsRussia.
ThefailuresintheintelligencecommunityregardingRussiaandtheallegedpenetrationoftheWashington,D.C.foreignpolicyestablishmentbyRussianagentsseemliketopicsthatneedto
beaddressedbytheHouseandSenateIntelligenceCommittees.
Ultimately,however,theAmericanpeoplemayhavetoweightheevidence,sincepresidentialcandidatesdonthavetopassFBIbackgroundcheckstodeterminetheirsuitabilityforpublic
office.
ChaitdescribedtheTrump-Putinrelationshipascampaign-threatening,achargethatcouldhandtheNovemberelectiontoformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonifTrumpsecuresthe
GOPnomination,andifheisperceivedtobefriendlywithaU.S.adversaryorenemy.
IfTrumpisperceivedasanagentofinfluenceforPutin,theRepublicanPartycouldbegreatlyembarrassedandMrs.Clintoncouldcomeacrossasmoresolidinherknowledgeand
conductofforeignaffairs,despiteherclassifiedemailscandalandforeignpolicyfailuressuchasBenghazi.
CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontactedatcliff.kincaid@aim.org
Senttime: 04/27/201608:35:48AM
To: Reynolds,NathanielL<ReynoldsNL@state.gov>
Cc: Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>Otto,Robert<OttoRC@state.gov>Curry,DennisL<CurryDL@state.gov>
Subject: Re:TrendingTodayinRussianSocialMedia
StepanovaworkedatTaxAuthority28,not29asNavalnyyhasit.
TheagentfreedomnonsensecamefrominsideRussiaKISELEVairedonlyasmallpartofit.Nekrasov,whosepreviousfilms
wereontheLitvinenkomurderandthe1999bombings,isno(obvious)regimetoollikePopov.
Meanwhile,aftertheChaykafilm,ChaykahimselfwentonaboutBrowderkillingMagnitskiy,itselfadistinctechoofaZavtra
piecein2011
http://zavtra.ru/content/view/2011-08-1621/
IthastobereadtobebelievedandtheZavtracrowdaskssomesharpquestionsattheend.DidBrowderknowStepanovaat
28,forexample?
SentfrommyiPad
OnApr27,2016,at6:40AM,Reynolds,NathanielL<ReynoldsNL@state.gov>wrote:
Yes,andmaybeexplainsBrowdersappearanceintheagentfreedompiecefromKiselev,whichwasfollowedby
BastrykinsdecisiontoopenacheckonBrowderslinktoMagnitskysmurder.
TheresalsoanewdocumentaryfromaRussianfilmmakerthatclaimstouncoverliesinBrowdersversionofwhat
happenedintheMagnitskycase.ItwasshownintheEuropeanParliamenttoday.Ihavetothinkthatwaswellinthe
worksbeforethePanamapapers.
From:Williams,JohnP
To:Otto,RobertReynolds,NathanielLCurry,DennisL
Cc:RobertOtto(robertotto25@gmail.com)
Subject:FW:TrendingTodayinRussianSocialMedia
MaybethishassomeconnectiontotheNBCreportersinvestigation
From:Hagengruber,MathewL
Subject:TrendingTodayinRussianSocialMedia
TrendingTodayinRussianSocialMedia

1.MagnitskymoneyinRolduginsaccounts
2.Extracredit
1.MorePanamaPapersfalloutthistimeitsMagnitskyandRoldugin:Itsa
complicatedpapertrailtofollow,butitappearsthatanoffshorecompanyownedbyPutin
friendandcellistSergeiRolduginreceivedmoneytiedtotheSergeiMagnitskytaxevasion
case.ThisOCCRParticlelaysitalloutingreatdetail.Liberal/independentmediaoutlets
quicklypickeduponthisstoryanditwasabigtopiconsocialmedialastnightandintotoday.
Theunanimousconclusionamongsocialmediainfluencers:Putinhimselfwoundupwiththe
moneyfromtheHermitageCapital/Magnitskycase.

(JournalistandprolificsocialmediacommenterOlegKashin)
Wowwowwowwow
Headline:MoneystolenfromHermitageCapitalwasfoundinPutinsbestfriendsoffshore.
<image001.jpg>
(MikhailKhodorkovsky)
Monstrousinformation.Realmafia?OCCRP:inRolduginsoffshoreswasthemoneyMagnitskywaslookingfor.
<image002.jpg>
(InvestigativejournalistRomanDobrokhotov)
Youvemisunderstood.RolduginsoldararecellotoMagnitsky.Themoneyhegotwasgiventochildren!No,notto
Putin'schildren,justordinarychildren.
<image003.jpg>
(OppositionDumaDeputyDmitryGudkov)
InthestorywithRoldugin,thestolentaxmoneybyBrowdersfirmsandMagnitsky'sdeath,thereisonepointthat
youshouldunderstand.ItwasthemurderofMagnitskythatbecamethefirstsignofthecurrentcrisisofpower.It
wasthefirsthigh-profilescandalabouttheRussianelite.WhentheywerelootingYukos,tryingtocoveritupwiththe
courtandthelaw.Hereitwasjustfraudandamurder.Therefore,fromthefirstcrimetheyincreasedthesanctions
againsttheRussianofficials.Therefore,afterthemurderofMagnitsky,theyforcedtheDumaintosubmission,
draggingthelawofscoundrels.Thiswasthebeginningandtheinternationalisolation,thefirstexperienceof"anti-
sanctions.ThatswhyforpropagandaandkleptocratsBrowderbecameanewTrotsky,thenumberoneenemy.
Thatshowthebenefitofpettycriminalscausedirreparableharmtothecountry.
<image004.jpg>
(Anti-corruptionactivistAlexeyNavalny)
Read,wereexplainingthesensationalcontinuationofthe"Panamadossier"investigationhttp://navalny.com/p/4845/
FromNavalnysblog:LetmeremindyouthemainplotofMagnitskycase:Theemployeesofthe29thtaxagency
hustledtheschemewiththeallegedovertaxreturnonincometaxandVAT.Theyprovidedforgeddocumentsand
withtheirhelp"returned"billionsfromthebudget.Severalcompanies,stolenduringpoliceraidsintheHermitagefund
(youcannotputbillionsintoshellcompanies),wereusedintheseschemes.SergeiMagnitskywastheauditorofthese
companies,hedetectedtheillegal"return"scheme,afterwhichhewasarrestedandtorturedtodeathinprison.Andit
wasabsolutelyunclearwhytheyredefendingthesewomenfromthetaxagency?TheyboughtvillasinDubaiand
housesonRublevkasoopenlyNowitisclearwhy.ThetaxschemesbyStepanovawerefeedinganothervery
famousVladimir.Todaycameupthecontinuationofthestoryof"Putin'spurse"cellistRolduginItwasthe
"Magnitskycase"figureswhotransferredthemoneyin"Putin'spurse".Anditwasnotjustthesamepeoplebutthe
samemoney.Almostonemilliondollarsoutofthestolen230millionwaspaidtothecompany,100%ownedby
Putin'sbestfriend.
<image005.jpg>
HowOlgaStepanovawasfillingVladimirPutinspursehttp://navalny.com/p/4845/
<image006.jpg>
(CartoonistSergeyElkinmanagedtoconnectthePanamaPaperstothenewseasonofGameofThrones)
Cartoontext:GameofCellos:newseason.
Usercomment:Rolduginswashingmachine:yourmoneylovesthismusic
<image007.jpg>

===============
2.Extracredit
Ruscpr(RussianPravda)FacebookcommunitypostedavideoofagingfemalevolunteersfromtheUnited
Russiapoliticalpartygettingrudimentarymartialartstraining,supposedlyinpreparationfortheUnifiedVotingDay.
ThevideohasmesmerizedRuNet,scoring2,300sharesandover200,000views.
<image008.jpg>
BloggerRustemAdagamovandotherssharedaphotoshowingafoodcollectionforpeoplelivingin
villages.
First,these(expletives)crushfoodwithbulldozersandthenbegintocollect"productsforthevillages."
<image009.jpg>
Bothpro-andanti-KremlinvoiceshavetakennoteofthehungerstrikeofSavikShuster,aCanadian-
UkrainianjournalistwhoisunderinvestigationinKyivonwhathecallstrumpeduppoliticalcharges.
(Pro-KremlinpoliticalactivistFilipMaslovskiy)
Shustersuddenlyrealizedthecriminalnatureofthejuntaregime,notbecauseofthemurderofhiscolleagueBuzina,
butbecauseofthelossofthejobasashepherdofsvidomits[anegative,post-SovietnicknameforUkrainians
usedbypro-Kremlintrolls]
<image010.jpg>
Andanothertweetfromhim:
Schustershouldnotbeoffendedhejustgotakickfromthechildrenofthosewho,withoutbattinganeye70years
ago,wouldveguttedhimforbeingajournalistnamedSavik.
<image011.jpg>

Webprogrammershavediscoveredthatthequasi-pro-KremlinmediaoutletGazeta.rublockssearcheson
itssiteforanyofitsmanyarticlesrelatedtothe2001Kursksubmarinetragedy.
(FormerLenta.runewmediaproducerIgorBelkin)
Theyveevenmodifiedtheirrobots.txtfile,realpros!)
<image012.jpg>
<image013.jpg>
LifeNewsandotherstate-runmediaoutletsreportedonthesuccessfullaunchofarocketatthenew
VostochnyCosmodrome,aRussianspacecenterintendedtoreduceRussiasdependenceonlaunching
fromKazakhstan.Exceptthelaunchwasntsuccessfulatallitwascancelledatthelastminute.Being
whotheyare,LifeNewsneverbotheredtotakedowntheirarticle,butaddedashortcorrectionattheend.
(TheStopfakepropagandadebunkingpage)
TypicalLifenewssection
<image014.jpg>
RussianmediaoutletsyesterdayquotedananonymousSwisssourcewhosaidthatAmericanofficialshad
toldWesterncountriestoavoidtheupcomingeconomicforuminSt.Petersburg.
(VKpublikNOVOROSS-DONETSK,YettoCome!)
[Americanexpletives]arebanning"free"EuropeansfromvisitingRussia
<image015.jpg>
JournalistLeonidRagozinandotherssharedapopularvideoaboutwhathappenstopeoplewhospeak
RussianinLviv,Ukraine[spoiler:theoldLvivbabushkashootstheRussianspeakeronthespot,andneo-
Nazinationalistsrunthroughthevideo]
IwasactuallyaskedbyacoupleofpeopleinMoscowwhatisthesituationwiththeRussianlanguageinLviv.Hereit
isallthetruth!J
<image016.jpg>
TrendingTodayisaquickdailyroundupofthehottopicsonRussiansocialmediaandisproducedby
thePressOfficeattheU.S.EmbassyinMoscow.
ThisemailisUNCLASSIFIED.
From: Reynolds,NathanielL<ReynoldsNL@state.gov>
Senttime: 04/27/201606:40:45AM
To: Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>Otto,Robert<OttoRC@state.gov>Curry,DennisL<CurryDL@state.gov>
Cc: RobertOtto(robertotto25@gmail.com)<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:TrendingTodayinRussianSocialMedia

Yes,andmaybeexplainsBrowdersappearanceintheagentfreedompiecefromKiselev,whichwasfollowedbyBastrykins
decisiontoopenacheckonBrowderslinktoMagnitskysmurder.
TheresalsoanewdocumentaryfromaRussianfilmmakerthatclaimstouncoverliesinBrowdersversionofwhathappenedin
theMagnitskycase.ItwasshownintheEuropeanParliamenttoday.Ihavetothinkthatwaswellintheworksbeforethe
Panamapapers.
From:Williams,JohnP
To:Otto,RobertReynolds,NathanielLCurry,DennisL
Cc:RobertOtto(robertotto25@gmail.com)
Subject:FW:TrendingTodayinRussianSocialMedia

MagnitskymoneyinRolduginsaccounts
Extracredit
1.MorePanamaPapersfalloutthistimeitsMagnitskyandRoldugin:Itsacomplicatedpaper
trailtofollow,butitappearsthatanoffshorecompanyownedbyPutinfriendandcellistSergeiRoldugin
receivedmoneytiedtotheSergeiMagnitskytaxevasioncase.ThisOCCRParticlelaysitalloutingreat
detail.Liberal/independentmediaoutletsquicklypickeduponthisstoryanditwasabigtopiconsocial
medialastnightandintotoday.Theunanimousconclusionamongsocialmediainfluencers:Putinhimself
woundupwiththemoneyfromtheHermitageCapital/Magnitskycase.

Wowwowwowwow
Youvemisunderstood.RolduginsoldararecellotoMagnitsky.Themoneyhegotwasgiventochildren!No,nottoPutin's
children,justordinarychildren.
InthestorywithRoldugin,thestolentaxmoneybyBrowdersfirmsandMagnitsky'sdeath,thereisonepointthatyoushould
understand.ItwasthemurderofMagnitskythatbecamethefirstsignofthecurrentcrisisofpower.Itwasthefirsthigh-profile
scandalabouttheRussianelite.WhentheywerelootingYukos,tryingtocoveritupwiththecourtandthelaw.Hereitwasjust
fraudandamurder.Therefore,fromthefirstcrimetheyincreasedthesanctionsagainsttheRussianofficials.Therefore,afterthe
murderofMagnitsky,theyforcedtheDumaintosubmission,draggingthelawofscoundrels.Thiswasthebeginningandthe
internationalisolation,thefirstexperienceof"anti-sanctions.ThatswhyforpropagandaandkleptocratsBrowderbecameanew
Trotsky,thenumberoneenemy.Thatshowthebenefitofpettycriminalscausedirreparableharmtothecountry.
FromNavalnysblog:LetmeremindyouthemainplotofMagnitskycase:Theemployeesofthe29thtaxagencyhustledthe
schemewiththeallegedovertaxreturnonincometaxandVAT.Theyprovidedforgeddocumentsandwiththeirhelp"returned"
billionsfromthebudget.Severalcompanies,stolenduringpoliceraidsintheHermitagefund(youcannotputbillionsintoshell
companies),wereusedintheseschemes.SergeiMagnitskywastheauditorofthesecompanies,hedetectedtheillegal"return"
scheme,afterwhichhewasarrestedandtorturedtodeathinprison.Anditwasabsolutelyunclearwhytheyredefendingthese
womenfromthetaxagency?TheyboughtvillasinDubaiandhousesonRublevkasoopenlyNowitisclearwhy.Thetax
schemesbyStepanovawerefeedinganotherveryfamousVladimir.Todaycameupthecontinuationofthestoryof"Putin'spurse"
cellistRolduginItwasthe"Magnitskycase"figureswhotransferredthemoneyin"Putin'spurse".Anditwasnotjustthesame
peoplebutthesamemoney.Almostonemilliondollarsoutofthestolen230millionwaspaidtothecompany,100%ownedby
Putin'sbestfriend.
===============
2.Extracredit
Ruscpr(RussianPravda)FacebookcommunitypostedavideoofagingfemalevolunteersfromtheUnitedRussiapolitical
partygettingrudimentarymartialartstraining,supposedlyinpreparationfortheUnifiedVotingDay.Thevideohasmesmerized
RuNet,scoring2,300sharesandover200,000views.
BloggerRustemAdagamovandotherssharedaphotoshowingafoodcollectionforpeoplelivinginvillages.
Bothpro-andanti-KremlinvoiceshavetakennoteofthehungerstrikeofSavikShuster,aCanadian-Ukrainian
journalistwhoisunderinvestigationinKyivonwhathecallstrumpeduppoliticalcharges.
Shustersuddenlyrealizedthecriminalnatureofthejuntaregime,notbecauseofthemurderofhiscolleagueBuzina,butbecauseof
thelossofthejobasashepherdofsvidomits[anegative,post-SovietnicknameforUkrainiansusedbypro-Kremlintrolls]
Schustershouldnotbeoffendedhejustgotakickfromthechildrenofthosewho,withoutbattinganeye70yearsago,
wouldveguttedhimforbeingajournalistnamedSavik.
Webprogrammershavediscoveredthatthequasi-pro-KremlinmediaoutletGazeta.rublockssearchesonitssitefor
anyofitsmanyarticlesrelatedtothe2001Kursksubmarinetragedy.

LifeNewsandotherstate-runmediaoutletsreportedonthesuccessfullaunchofarocketatthenewVostochny
Cosmodrome,aRussianspacecenterintendedtoreduceRussiasdependenceonlaunchingfromKazakhstan.Except
thelaunchwasntsuccessfulatallitwascancelledatthelastminute.Beingwhotheyare,LifeNewsnever
botheredtotakedowntheirarticle,butaddedashortcorrectionattheend.
RussianmediaoutletsyesterdayquotedananonymousSwisssourcewhosaidthatAmericanofficialshadtold
WesterncountriestoavoidtheupcomingeconomicforuminSt.Petersburg.
JournalistLeonidRagozinandotherssharedapopularvideoaboutwhathappenstopeoplewhospeakRussianin
Lviv,Ukraine[spoiler:theoldLvivbabushkashootstheRussianspeakeronthespot,andneo-Nazinationalistsrun
throughthevideo]
IwasactuallyaskedbyacoupleofpeopleinMoscowwhatisthesituationwiththeRussianlanguageinLviv.Hereitisallthe
truth!J
TrendingTodayisaquickdailyroundupofthehottopicsonRussiansocialmediaandisproducedbythePress
OfficeattheU.S.EmbassyinMoscow.
From: Williams,JohnP<WilliamsJP@state.gov>
Senttime: 04/27/201606:28:50AM
To: Otto,Robert<OttoRC@state.gov>Reynolds,NathanielL<ReynoldsNL@state.gov>Curry,DennisL<CurryDL@state.gov>
Cc: RobertOtto(robertotto25@gmail.com)<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: FW:TrendingTodayinRussianSocialMedia


MagnitskymoneyinRolduginsaccounts
Extracredit
1.MorePanamaPapersfalloutthistimeitsMagnitskyandRoldugin:Itsacomplicatedpaper
trailtofollow,butitappearsthatanoffshorecompanyownedbyPutinfriendandcellistSergeiRoldugin
receivedmoneytiedtotheSergeiMagnitskytaxevasioncase.ThisOCCRParticlelaysitalloutingreat
detail.Liberal/independentmediaoutletsquicklypickeduponthisstoryanditwasabigtopiconsocial
medialastnightandintotoday.Theunanimousconclusionamongsocialmediainfluencers:Putinhimself
woundupwiththemoneyfromtheHermitageCapital/Magnitskycase.

Wowwowwowwow
Youvemisunderstood.RolduginsoldararecellotoMagnitsky.Themoneyhegotwasgiventochildren!No,nottoPutin's
children,justordinarychildren.
InthestorywithRoldugin,thestolentaxmoneybyBrowdersfirmsandMagnitsky'sdeath,thereisonepointthatyoushould
understand.ItwasthemurderofMagnitskythatbecamethefirstsignofthecurrentcrisisofpower.Itwasthefirsthigh-profile
scandalabouttheRussianelite.WhentheywerelootingYukos,tryingtocoveritupwiththecourtandthelaw.Hereitwasjust
fraudandamurder.Therefore,fromthefirstcrimetheyincreasedthesanctionsagainsttheRussianofficials.Therefore,afterthe
murderofMagnitsky,theyforcedtheDumaintosubmission,draggingthelawofscoundrels.Thiswasthebeginningandthe
internationalisolation,thefirstexperienceof"anti-sanctions.ThatswhyforpropagandaandkleptocratsBrowderbecameanew
Trotsky,thenumberoneenemy.Thatshowthebenefitofpettycriminalscausedirreparableharmtothecountry.
FromNavalnysblog:LetmeremindyouthemainplotofMagnitskycase:Theemployeesofthe29thtaxagencyhustledthe
schemewiththeallegedovertaxreturnonincometaxandVAT.Theyprovidedforgeddocumentsandwiththeirhelp"returned"
billionsfromthebudget.Severalcompanies,stolenduringpoliceraidsintheHermitagefund(youcannotputbillionsintoshell
companies),wereusedintheseschemes.SergeiMagnitskywastheauditorofthesecompanies,hedetectedtheillegal"return"
scheme,afterwhichhewasarrestedandtorturedtodeathinprison.Anditwasabsolutelyunclearwhytheyredefendingthese
womenfromthetaxagency?TheyboughtvillasinDubaiandhousesonRublevkasoopenlyNowitisclearwhy.Thetax
schemesbyStepanovawerefeedinganotherveryfamousVladimir.Todaycameupthecontinuationofthestoryof"Putin'spurse"
cellistRolduginItwasthe"Magnitskycase"figureswhotransferredthemoneyin"Putin'spurse".Anditwasnotjustthesame
peoplebutthesamemoney.Almostonemilliondollarsoutofthestolen230millionwaspaidtothecompany,100%ownedby
Putin'sbestfriend.
===============
2.Extracredit
Ruscpr(RussianPravda)FacebookcommunitypostedavideoofagingfemalevolunteersfromtheUnitedRussiapolitical
partygettingrudimentarymartialartstraining,supposedlyinpreparationfortheUnifiedVotingDay.Thevideohasmesmerized
RuNet,scoring2,300sharesandover200,000views.
BloggerRustemAdagamovandotherssharedaphotoshowingafoodcollectionforpeoplelivinginvillages.
Bothpro-andanti-KremlinvoiceshavetakennoteofthehungerstrikeofSavikShuster,aCanadian-Ukrainian
journalistwhoisunderinvestigationinKyivonwhathecallstrumpeduppoliticalcharges.
Shustersuddenlyrealizedthecriminalnatureofthejuntaregime,notbecauseofthemurderofhiscolleagueBuzina,butbecauseof
thelossofthejobasashepherdofsvidomits[anegative,post-SovietnicknameforUkrainiansusedbypro-Kremlintrolls]
Schustershouldnotbeoffendedhejustgotakickfromthechildrenofthosewho,withoutbattinganeye70yearsago,
wouldveguttedhimforbeingajournalistnamedSavik.
Webprogrammershavediscoveredthatthequasi-pro-KremlinmediaoutletGazeta.rublockssearchesonitssitefor
anyofitsmanyarticlesrelatedtothe2001Kursksubmarinetragedy.

LifeNewsandotherstate-runmediaoutletsreportedonthesuccessfullaunchofarocketatthenewVostochny
Cosmodrome,aRussianspacecenterintendedtoreduceRussiasdependenceonlaunchingfromKazakhstan.Except
thelaunchwasntsuccessfulatallitwascancelledatthelastminute.Beingwhotheyare,LifeNewsnever
botheredtotakedowntheirarticle,butaddedashortcorrectionattheend.
RussianmediaoutletsyesterdayquotedananonymousSwisssourcewhosaidthatAmericanofficialshadtold
WesterncountriestoavoidtheupcomingeconomicforuminSt.Petersburg.
JournalistLeonidRagozinandotherssharedapopularvideoaboutwhathappenstopeoplewhospeakRussianin
Lviv,Ukraine[spoiler:theoldLvivbabushkashootstheRussianspeakeronthespot,andneo-Nazinationalistsrun
throughthevideo]
IwasactuallyaskedbyacoupleofpeopleinMoscowwhatisthesituationwiththeRussianlanguageinLviv.Hereitisallthe
truth!J
TrendingTodayisaquickdailyroundupofthehottopicsonRussiansocialmediaandisproducedbythePress
OfficeattheU.S.EmbassyinMoscow.
From: TheJamestownFoundation<pubs@jamestown.org>
Senttime: 04/22/201602:52:48PM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: NorthCaucasusWeekly--Volume17,Issue8
Viewthisemailinyourbrowser
April22,Volume17,Issue8
INTHISISSUE
*DagestaniwrestlersparksethnictensionsinKalmykiabydesecratingBuddhisttemple
*UnrestinAbkhaziamaycauseachangeingovernment
*SupportersofIslamicStatespreadtheiractivitiestootherpartsofRussia
*ThestrangeattackbysuicidebombersintheStavropolregion
*CreationofaRussianNationalGuardcouldunderminepowerofKadyrov
*RussiandraftinNorthCaucasussparksresentment
*DagestanigovernmentcontinuescrusadeagainstindependentMuslimcommunities
*Russianhit-menarechargedwithmurderofChecheninTurkey
*YevkurovplaysdownIslamicStatethreatinIngushetia

**DearJamestownSubscriber:
WehopeyouenjoythiscompendiumofarticlesontheNorthCaucasusandifyoudonotwish
tocontinuereceivingthispublicationpleaseupdateyoursubscriptionstatusontheJamestown
websiteorcontactusdirectlyatpubs@jamestown.org.

***VisittheJamestownwebsiteforNorthCaucasusAnalysis(www.jamestown.org/nc/)

KalmykAuthoritiesReactHarshlytoDesecrationofBuddhistSacredTemple

OnApril2,aconflicteruptedbetweenDagestanisandKalmyksinKalmykiascapitalElista.
ADagestaniwrestler,SaidOsmanov,whowasonavisittoKalmykiareportedlywentinside
aBuddhisttemple,urinated,andkickedthefaceofaBuddhastatue.Moreover,Osmanov
postedthecorrespondingimagesonline.Meanwhile,Elistaresidentsfoundoutaboutthe
wrestlersbehavior,andacrowdofindignantlocalscametothehotelwhereOsmanovwas
staying.Theprotestersreportedlyforcedhimtokneeldownandbegforforgiveness.The
policelatertookhiminforquestioninginordertoavoidfurtherdisturbances.Thewrestling
tournamentwascanceledfollowingtheincident(Lenta.ru,April3).

OsmanovsfatherreportedlysaidthathewasshockedbywhathissondidinKalmykia
(Kalmykia-online.ru,April4).TheheadofDagestansgovernment,AbdusamadGamidov,
traveledtoKalmykiatoapologizetoitspeople(Kalmykia-online.ru,April3).AcourtinElista
orderedthe22-year-oldOsmanovtobeplacedunderarrestfortwomonths.Thesuspect
mayfaceuptothreeyearsinprisonforthechargesbroughtagainsthim.Moreover,Dagestani
authoritiesbarredOsmanovfromwrestling,dismissedhiscoach,andissuedawarningto
DagestanssportsministerMagomedMagomedov.ThegovernorofKalmykia,Aleksei
Orlov,statedthathepersonallyspoketoDagestansgovernor,RamazanAbdulatipov,about
theincident.Orlovdeclared:Weareunitedinthiswecondemnthisactofvandalismand
agreeonthemainthingthatthemoralandspiritualfreakswhocommitsuchunlawfulactshave
nonationality(Vlasti.net,April4).
WhiletheDagestanislargelycondemnedtheactionsofSaidOsmanov,thepublicmood
startedtochangewhentheauthoritiesannouncedthattheperpetratorofvandalismwasfacing
anactualprisonterm.Moreover,accordingtosomeeyewitnessaccounts,Osmanovdidnot
gotoaBuddhisttempleanddidnotmocktheBuddhastatue.TheDagestanivisitorsto
KalmykiaallegedthatthepolicesidedwiththeKalmykmobanddidnoteventrytoprotect
themfromtherioters(NovoeDelo,April9).
SeveralDagestanipoliticiansissuedstatementscallingforrestrainttoavoidalargerscale
conflictbetweenDagestanandKalmykia.Dagestanipoliticiansquicklytransitionedfromtheir
initialapologeticattitudetodemandingequitabletreatmentofbothsidesoftheconflictthe
DagestanisandtheKalmyks.ThedividebetweentheBuddhistKalmyksandtheMuslim
Dagestanisquicklybecameoneofthehottopicsonsocialmediainbothrepublics
(Onkavkaz.com,April9).
KalmykiaisasparselypopulatedrepublictothenorthfromDagestan.About280,000people
resideinalargelyaridterritoryof76,000squarekilometers.Bycomparison,thepopulation
ofDagestanisaboutthreemillion,livinginanareaofabout50,000squarekilometers.Ethnic
Kalmykscompriseabout57percentofKalmykiaspopulation,withethnicRussiansthe
secondlargestgroup,comprisingabout30percentofthepopulation.ApluralityofKalmyks
isTibetanBuddhist,althoughsomepracticeRussianOrthodoxChristianityandShamanism.
TheDagestaniacademicKhabibMagomedovtoldthe KavkazskayaPolitikawebsitethat
OsmanovmayhavebeeninspiredbyMuslimattacksonhistoricalsitesabroad.Iguesshe
rememberedmediareportsthatsomewhereinAfghanistantheTalibanblewupmonumentsof
Buddha,whichhadbeenaroundforseveralthousandyears,hesaid.Thenhethoughtthat
hewasnoworsethantheTalibananddecidedtoshowoffhisherosidebyinsultingthestatue.
ThenhewasevensmartenoughtopublishthevideoontheInternet.Asaresult,wegeta
strongblowtoDagestaniidentity.However,MagomedovsaidthatDagestanisshouldnot
insultothersbutalsoshouldnotallowotherstoinsultthem.Inparticular,Magomedovwas
unhappywiththeDagestanigovernmentofficialwhosoundedasifheapologizedfortheentire
Dagestanipeopleinsteadofapologizingforoneconcreteindividual.Moreimportantly,
MagomedovpointedoutthattheKalmykshadattackedandburnedmosquesintheir
republic.Insomeinstances,themobattackedandbeatupDagestanisbutnooneapparently
apologizedtotheDagestanisforthat,andKalmykiasgovernmentdidnotseemtobe
concernedaboutsuchcases(KavkazskayaPolitika,April7).
Indeed,inJuly2014,agroupofmaskedmenattackedandburneddownaMuslimprayer
houseinElista.TheprayerhousewastheonlyofficialbuildinginKalmykiadesignatedforthe
prayerneedsofMuslimsoftherepublic.ThemajorityofKalmykiaspopulationisnon-
Muslim,butMuslimscomprisearound40,000people,about13percentoftherepublics
population(Newsru.com,July3,2014).TheMuslimpopulationofKalmykiaisincreasing,
whichprobablyunnervessomeamongitsnon-Muslimmajority.Kalmykiabordersnorthern
Dagestan,andmostMuslimsintherepublichaveconnectionswithDagestan.
Relationsbetweenthetwocommunitieshavebecomequitetense,andtheauthorities
attemptstopretendthatonlyonesideoftheconflictistoblameforallissuesseemstobe
backfiring.EvensuchexpertsasKhabibMagomedov,whospecializesinfightingextremism
amongDagestansMuslims,saysthatthestateshouldprotecttherightsofallitscitizens
equallyinordertoavoidthespreadofextremistideasbytheIslamicState.
--ValeryDzutsati
AbkhaziasPresidentFacesPublicCampaignCallingforHisResignation
AtthebeginningofMarch2016,alargecoalitionoforganizationsopposedtothepresidentof
thebreakawayGeorgianrepublicofAbkhazia,RaulKhajimba,startedgatheringsignatures
callingforareferendum.TheproposedquestionforthereferendumisDoyouconsiderit
necessarytoholdearlypresidentialelectionsintheRepublicofAbkhazia?AsofMarch29,
accordingtooneoftheactivistsofthecampaign,AstamurPachulia,theoppositionhad
gathered14,700signatures,whenonly10,000arerequiredbylaw.Thepowerfulorganization
ofveteransoftheAbkhaz-Georgianwarof19921993,Amtsakhara,isthemainbackerof
thereferendumtoforcetheregionspresidenttostepdown.Theoppositionisunhappymainly
withtheeconomicpoliciesofthecurrentgovernment(KavkazskayaPolitika,April1).
Khajimbasopponentsalsoaccusehimoffailingtoimplementthepoliticalreformshe
promised,themainonebeingtocurbthepoweroftheexecutivebranchwhileincreasingthe
powerofthelegislature(Kommersant,March24).
Anex-KGBofficer,KhajimbacametopowerinAbkhaziainSeptember2014,afterheled
thesuccessfulcampaigntooustthepreviousheadofthebreakawayrepublic,Alexander
Ankvab.NowtheoppositionaccusesKhajimbaofusurpingpower.Moscowhasgenerally
favoredhimoverotherpoliticalfiguresinAbkhazia.Thefirstlarge-scalepoliticalscandal
involvingKhajimbatookplaceduringthepresidentialelectionsinAbkhaziain2004,when
AbkhazianvoterssurprisedMoscowbyvotingforSergeiBagapshinsteadofKhajimba.In
2005,MoscowforcedBagapshandhissupporterstogivethepositionofvice-presidentof
therepublictoKhajimba,butittooktheex-KGBofficeranothernineyearstobecomethe
presidentofAbkhazia.
WhenMoscowslong-timeprotgcametopowerinAbkhazia,localsexpectedtheRussian
governmenttoincreaseitssupportforitssatellitestate.Thedealappearedtobesimple:
MoscowwouldreceivegreatercontroloverAbkhaziainreturnforincreasingitsfinancial
backingoftherepublic.However,evenwithKhajimbaastheheadofAbkhazia,Moscow
facedanuphillbattletoestablishtightercontroloverthebreakawayGeorgianterritory.In
October2014,onemonthafterKhajimbaofficiallybecameAbkhaziaspresident,theRussian
governmentunveiledanewtreatyoncooperationandintegrationwiththerepublic.Thetreaty
envisagedeliminatingtheAbkhazianarmybymergingitwiththeRussianmilitary.Thetreaty
alsoaimedatreplacingAbkhaziangovernmentinstitutionswithjointinstitutionsthatwould
obviouslybedominatedbytheRussianside.OnOctober22,2014,Khajimbasurprised
manybystatingthatthetreatywithRussiacouldnotbesignedasitwaspresentedbyRussia
andhadtoberewritten(KavkazskyUzel,November5,2014).
TheAbkhaziangovernmentalsodidnotshowmuchleniencyontheotherissuethatthe
Russiansregardedasvitalandquitevexingtheissueofcitizenshipandrealestate.Currently,
Abkhaziaslegislationprohibitnon-citizensfrombuyingrealestatepropertyintherepublic.
Eventhoughvariousillegalschemesexisttobypasstheselaws,theAbkhaziangovernmentis
adamantaboutpreventingforeignersfrombuyinguplucrativerealestateontheBlackSea
coast.Russiansarethemostlikelybuyersandthemostlikelytargetsoftherestrictions
(Sputnik-abkhazia.ru,October29,2015).
MoscowsrevengeonthegovernmentofRaulKhajimbaandalltheresidentsofAbkhazia
quicklyfollowed:sincethemiddleof2015,Moscowhaspracticallystoppedfinancing
Abkhazia.Giventhefactthatabouttwo-thirdsofAbkhaziasbudgetcomesfrommoneyit
receivesfromMoscow,itwasahardblowontherepublicaneconomy.Abkhazianofficials
pretendnothinghappenedbetweentherepublicandRussia,sayingthatRussiahadtocutaid
totherepublicbecauseofinternationalsanctions,theneedtosupportCrimeaandother
adversecircumstances.Moscowalsodoesnotcommentonthepressureitisputtingon
Abkhazia.However,expertswarnthattheabsenceofthepromisedRussianfinancial
injectionsistheprimaryfactorthatweakensthepositionsofthecurrentAbkhazauthorities
andstrengthensthesocialbaseoftheiropponents(KavkazskayaPolitika,April1).
Russiapromisedabout$120millioninfinancialaidforAbkhaziain2015,whichisa
substantialamountofmoneyforthebreakawayregions240,000residentsbutnotso
significantforRussia.WhateverhardshipsRussiafaces,itisunlikelythatitdidnothavethat
moneytosendtoAbkhazia.Instead,MoscowappearstobesendingKhajimba,itsprotg,
themessagethatheshouldliveuptotheexpectationsMoscowhasforhim.Russiahas
promisedtoincreaseaidforAbkhazia,butitisunclearhowmuchmoneytheregionwill
receive.In2015,outofthepromised$120million,Abkhaziaactuallyreceivedonlyabout
$40million(Kommersant,March24).
AgenuinedeclinealsoexistsinRussianresources,andifMoscowdoesnotmakeaneffortto
keepupthefinancingofitssatellitestates,theregimesithasinstalledtheremaystart
crumbling.ItcertainlyappearsthatAbkhaziamayundergoanotherchangeofgovernmentif
MoscowdoesnotincreaseitsfinancialbackingforKhajimbasadministration.
--ValeryDzutsati
OneYearLater:IslamicStateContinuestoExpandInsideRussia
Theso-calledIslamicState(IS)isincreasinglyinfiltratingRussia,threateningitssecurity
(Lenta.ru,June24,2015).IthasbeenlessthanoneyearsincetheISclaimedtohavea
provinceintheNorthCaucasus(Polit.ru,June24,2015),andnowtheorganizationclaims
tohaveexpandedbeyondtheCaucasusVelayat.TheISwentontoestablishitsown
networkofcellsinRussia.ThesameprocesstookplaceinIraqafter2006,whenthe
Islamistsgraduallyexpandedtheirinfluenceandbecamesostronginsomeareasthatthey
couldignoreauthoritiesinBaghdad.IntheNorthCaucasus,theISbaseditsexpansiononthe
existingstructuresoftheCaucasusEmirate,whichoperatedsince2007.Moscowquickly
realizedthedangerposedbytheIS,andtheRussianSupremeCourtdesignatedtheISand
Jabhatal-Nusra(theNusraFront)asterroristorganizationsbackinNovember2014(RIA
Novosti,December29,2014).Thus,RussianauthoritiesoutlawedtheISpriortoitscoming
toRussia,hopingthatthebanwouldhelptowardofftheMiddleEasternorganization.
However,atthispoint,itcanbesaidalreadythatthepreventivemeasurestakenbythe
RussiangovernmentwereinsufficientanddidnotchangetheIslamicStatesplanswithregard
totheCaucasusandRussia(Georgianpress.ru,June26,2015).TheISrecentlylaunched
severalattacksintheNorthCaucasus,althoughtheirscalewasprobablyfarsmallerthanthe
organizationsleadershipintheMiddleEastwouldhavehopedfor.Inasurprise
announcement,theFederalSecurityService(FSB)saiditdetainedfiveISsupporterswho
werepreparingaterroristattackintheVolgogradregion.Thesecurityservicesconfiscated
explosives,ammunitionandextremistliteraturefromthesuspects.AccordingtotheFSB,the
so-calledPallasovskyJamaatoperatedinthetownofPallasovka,intheVolgogradregion.
MembersofthejamaatreportedlyrecruitedlocalresidentsforthewarinSyria(TASS,April
8).
Pallasovkaisasmalltownof15,000residents,locatedonRussiasborderwithKazakhstan.
TheInvestigativeDepartmentoftheFSBlaunchedacriminalinvestigationonthebasisofthe
RussianCriminalCodestatutecoveringtheestablishmentofillegalarmedgroups.FSB
investigatorsalsoinvokedthestatutemandatingtheprosecutionofsupportforterrorist
activities.Ifthechargesareconfirmed,thesuspectscouldfaceuptotenyearsinprison.Itis
noteworthythatsuchajamaatwasestablishedinasmallprovincialtownlocatedinthearea
alongtheborderbetweenRussiaandKazakhstan.Thelocationofthecellindicatesthatitwas
probablytiedtonetworksnotonlyinRussiabutalsoinKazakhstan.Itisalsohighlylikelythe
jamaatinPallasovkahadtiestotheNorthCaucasusbecausemanyNorthCaucasians,in
particular,DagestanisandChechens,migratedtothatpartoftheVolgogradregioninsearch
ofemploymentandsettledthere.
ThearrestofthemembersofthePallasovkaJamaathighlightsothersimilarincidents,inwhich
ISsupportersorsympathizershavebeendetainedinRussia.Forexample,inOctober2015,
authoritiesinMoscowdetainedseveralChechenswhoallegedlyhadtiestotheIS.
Governmentofficialsbasedtheirdecisiontodetainthesuspectsonclaimsthatthesuspects
hadundergonemilitarytraininginSyriaandspreadmilitantpropaganda(Newsru.com,
October13,2015).
TheFSBalsoannouncedthearrestofsevensuspectedISmembersinoneofRussiaslargest
cities,Yekaterinburg.Officialssaidthatthesuspectswerepreparingterroristattacksin
Moscow,St.PetersburgandtheYekaterinburgarea,usingimprovisedexplosivedevices
(IED)(Rg.ru,February8).Alittlelater,thepolicedetainedabout20individualsaccusedof
havingtiestotheIS.However,sincenearlyallofthedetainedindividualswereTurkish
citizens,itwasprobablypartoftheongoinganti-TurkishcampaigninRussia(Lenta.ru,March
30).ThearrestsofISsympathizersandsupportersarealsoquitefrequentintheNorth
Caucasus(Peacekeeper.ru,March,17),whichindicatesthatRussiaisfacingaserious
challengeasradicalsaffiliatedwiththeISestablishcellsacrossthecountry.
ProbablyduetoconstantFSBpressureonIS-affiliatedradicalsinRussia,someRussian
citizensaremigratingtoUkrainetoestablishIslamistcellsthere.Ukrainianauthoritiesreported
thattheydetained25ISmembers,19ofwhomwereRussiancitizens(Mignews.com.ua,
March23).AccordingtotheUkrainiansecurityservices,RussianISsympathizersuse
UkraineandTurkeyastransitterritoriesfortravelingtoSyriaandback.
ThisevidencesuggeststhattheIslamicStateisspreadingitsinfluenceacrossRussiaandits
neighbors,includingUkraineandGeorgia,amongothers.GiventhefactthattheISstartedto
expanditspresenceinRussiaonlyinthesummerof2015,theMiddleEasternorganization
hasbeenquitesuccessful,whichispartlyRussiasownfault.IndealingwithMuslims,Russia
isbehavinglikeabullinachinashop,whichcreatesmoreoppositionamongMuslimsand
moreopportunitiesforISrecruiters.Theprocessislikelytocreategreatertensionsbetween
theRussiangovernmentandtheMuslimcommunitydowntheroad.
--MairbekVatchagaev
ReportsofISSuicideBombersTargetingPoliceinStavropolLackCredibility
OnApril11,theRussianstatenewsagency RIANovostiquotedagovernmentofficialas
sayingthataccordingtothepreliminaryinformation,threesuicidebombersblewthemselves
upneartheNovoselitskydistrictpolicestationinStavropolregion(RIANovosti,April11).
Thefirstsurprisingfactabouttheincidentwasthelocationoftheterroristattack.Novoselitsky
districtislocatedinthesteppesofeasternStavropolregion.Itspopulationis26,000people
18percentofwhomareNorthCaucasians,andthelargestgroupamongthelatterare
Dargins,whomakeupamere6.5percentofthedistrictstotalpopulation.Nomilitarybases,
strategicobjects,prisonsoranythingelseexistintheareathatcouldbeofinteresttothe
suicidebomberswhoreportedlycarriedoutanattackinNovoselitskydistrict.
ThreerebelsindeedattackedtheNovoselitskypolicestationinStavropolregiononthe
morningofApril11,butfortunatelytheattackfailed.Accordingtoinvestigators,theterrorists
werestoppedattheentrancetothepolicestation.Apoliceofficerreportedlydiscerned
somethingsuspiciousaboutthevisitors.Oneofthemilitantsblewhimselfup,andthepolice
shotandkilledtheothertwo.InvestigatorsassumethatIslamicState(IS)supporterswere
behindtheattack.OfficialRussianmediareportedthatseveralterroristsunsuccessfullytried
toinfiltratetheterritoryoftheMinistryofInteriorunit,andthreeblewthemselvesupwithin
fivetosixmetersfromthebuilding(Slon.ru,April11).
TheNovoselitskydistrictpolicestationisnothinglikethepolicestationinBudyonnovsk,
whichhasbeenunderheightenedprotectionsincethe1995attackbyShamilBasaevsgroup.
ThepolicestationinNovoselitskydistrictwasnotprotectedbyanyphysicalbarriers.The
authoritiesclaimthatIS-affiliatedmilitantstargetedanobscurepolicestationinStavropol
district,andweredestroyedbeforesuccessfullycarryingouttheattack,whichhardlystands
uptoscrutiny.Thepolicesofarhavefailedtoprovideeventhevideofootageoftheattackby
themilitants.
AccordingtoRussiasInvestigativeCommittee,threeresidentsofthevillageofKitaevskoe
32-year-oldZaurAkaev,24-year-oldRamazanKhaibulaevand19-year-oldIsai
AbdulatipovtookpartintheattackontheNovoselitskydistrictpolicestation.Investigators
saidthatallthreeindividualshadpreviouslybeenprosecutedforvariouscrimes,including,in
thecaseofoneofthem,themurderofhisbrother-in-law(NTV,April11).Khaibulaevwas
chargedwiththeft.Abdulatipovspenttimeunderarrestforillegalpossessionofdrugs.Itis
unclearwhyAkaevwenttosettlescoreswiththepolicewithahandgrenadesinsteadofa
suicidebombersvest(Lifenews.ru,April11).
ThegovernmentdispatchedalargepoliceforcetoNovoselitskydistrict,includingofficials
fromMoscow.Thepoliceturnedeverythingupsidedowninthedistrict,questionedthe
relatives,friends,andneighborsoftheattackers,andsearchedtheirhomes.Thepolicealso
questionedmembersoftheDagestanidiasporasincetheslainsuspectswerefromethnic
groupsindigenoustoDagestan.However,investigatorsfailedtoidentifywhetherthesuspects
attackedthepolicestationbythemselvesorifaterroristgrouporchestratedtheattack
(Kommersant,April12).
Thepolicecarriedoutover60searchesinvariouspartsofNovoselitskydistrict.They
questionedover100individuals,butonlymanagedtofindoutwheretheimprovisedexplosive
devices(IED)wereassembled(RIANovosti,April12).Afteraday,thegovernmentofficials
statedthatthepolicehaddetainedanaccompliceofthepeoplewhohadparticipatedinthe
attackonthepolicestationbutreleasednodetailsofhisinvolvementintheattack(Izvestia,
April13).
SomeexpertsontheNorthCaucasushastilystatedthatmilitantsreturningtotheregionfrom
Syriawerecausinganewwaveoftension(Svpressa.ru,April11).AnexpertwiththeFundof
ElectoralPolicies,AndreiSerenko,saidthattheexistenceofanIScellinStavropolproved
thattheorganizationhassuicidebombersandexplosivedevices.Inthenearfuture,theISwill
revealitspresenceinotherregionsofRussia,includingMoscow(KavkazskyUzel,April11).
However,jumpingtosuchfar-reachingconclusionsaftertheincidentinStavropolis
unjustified.TheRussianexpertsattemptstoseekouttiesbetweenallincidentsandtheIS
(Kommersant,April11)onlyreflectthecurrentfashioninRussia.AsMikhailRoshchin,a
RussianexpertandspecialistonIslam,said:Ofcourse,wecannowattributeeverythingto
theIslamicState.However,giventhefactthattheexplosiontookplaceinavillage,notina
largecity,theincidentlooksquiteabsurd(KavkazskyUzel,April11).
AnotherRussianexpertonIslam,AkhmetYarlykapov,agreeswithRoshchin.Yarlykapov
thinksthattheIslamicStatewouldnothavegivenitsconsenttolaunchariskyoperationwith
littlepotentialoutcome.Losingthreesuicidebombersinoneincidentistoomuchevenforthe
IS.TheIslamicundergroundmovementspendsmonthspreparingeverysuicidebomberforan
attack.Hence,itisunlikelythattheIScanaffordlosingitspeopleforadiversionaryshotin
theStavropolwilderness.
Thepolicemusthaverealizedthattheirstoryistoounbelievableandinthefirsthoursafterthe
newsabouttheattackinStavropolbroke,theofficialRussianmediasuddenlylostallinterest
intheattack.Withinthefirstfourhoursaftertheincident,theKremlinsignaledwhattowrite
andhowtocoverit.RussianpresidentialspokesmanDmitryPeskovsaiditwasnecessaryto
clearlyunderstandwhoorganizedit,whowasbehindit,inordertodeterminewhetheritwas
connectedtotheterroristthreatortoordinarycriminalviolence(Kommersant,April11).
Mostlikely,thepoliceofficerwasforsomereasonscaredofAkaevandhistwofriendsand
shotthem.Toconcealthisandmakethepolicecomeoutclean,thepoliceprobablydecided
todeclaretheslainindividualssuicidebombers.Theofficialsdidnotfindevenahandgunon
them,whichisquitestrangeformilitants.Thus,theincidentwasmostlikelyacriminalevent
ratherthanasuicidebombingattackontheStavropoldistrictpolicestation,andwasalmost
certainlynotanattackstagedbytheIslamicState.
--MairbekVatchagaev
CreationofRussianNationalGuardCouldAffectKremlinPoliciesintheNorth
Caucasus
OnApril5,RussianPresidentVladimirPutinsignedadecreeestablishinganewfederal
securityservice,theRussianNationalGuard,whichlargelyinheritsthetroopsfromthe
MinistryofInterior.ThedirectorofthenewfederalservicehasthestatusofaRussian
governmentministerandisentitledtosixdeputies(Kremlin.ru,April5).Thatsameday,Putin
appointedthelongtimeheadofhisbodyguardservice,ViktorZolotov,toleadthenewagency
(Kremlin.ru,April5).PutinalsoaddedZolotovtothegroupofpermanentmembersofthe
RussianSecurityCouncil(Kremlin.ru,April5).OnApril11,however,Putinsomewhat
correctedhimself,loweringZolotovsstatustoregular(non-permanent)memberofthe
SecurityCouncil(Publication.pravo.gov.ru,April11).
Putinsmovesurprisedmanyanalysts,andnumerousexplanationsforhisdecisionsprangto
life.Putinsownexplanationdidnothelpmuch,asheofferedoneoftheleastplausible
versionssofar.Athisannualcall-inTVshowonApril14,Putinrespondedtoaquestionon
thereasonsforcreatingtheNationalGuardbysayingthatthenewagencywasestablishedto
controlthecirculationofweaponsinthecountry(Kremlin.ru,April14).Russianofficials
havenotcitedthecirculationofweaponsasaparticularlysignificantproblemforthecountry
intherecentpast.
OneofthemostpopularexplanationsforthecreationoftheNationalGuardisthatthenew
servicewillbemorereliableforsuppressingpopulardiscontentinRussia.Astheeconomic
situationinsidethecountrycontinuestodeteriorateandisprojectedtodeclinefurther,Putin
reportedlyfearsthattheelitesmightsplitandusethecrowdstoorganizeriotsthatslowlyturn
intoacoup.ZolotovhastheadvantageofbeingespeciallyclosetoPutinand,atthesame
time,beingongoodtermswithChechenleaderRamzanKadyrov,whohasarelativelysmall,
butpotentmilitarizedforce,oftenreferredtoasthekadyrovtsy.Hence,theexplanation
goes,PutinwillbeabletousetheNationalGuard,includingthekadyrovtsy,todisruptany
massriotsthathiscompetitorsmayuseagainsthim.Atthesametime,Zolotovwillbeableto
controlKadyrovandhisforces,sincetheygetalongwitheachotherwell,unliketheother
RussiansecurityservicesliketheFederalSecurityService(FSB),whichhaslongbeen
viewedbysometovehementlydisliketheChechengovernor(NovayaGazeta,April8).
NovayaGazetaexpertPetrZaikinwentevenfurther,allegingthatthereorganizationofthe
Russianforcesthetransitionoftheinteriorministrystroopsintotheforcesunderthe
commandoftheNationalGuardwilleliminateKadyrovscontrolovertheso-called
kadyrovtsy,whowillbecomepartoftheall-Russianstateservice(NovayaGazeta,April9).
Accordingtosomereports,theNationalGuardwillweedformerrebelswhoturnedintothe
pro-RussiankadyrovtsyoutoftheChechenforces,andsomenon-Chechenswillbeincluded
intheChechengroups.Kadyrovwillbebarredfromoverseeingspecialoperationsbothin
Chechnyaandinnearbyregions.Kadyrov,meanwhile,didnotappeartobeworried.Instead,
hewelcomedtheestablishmentofthenewsecurityserviceandstatedthatthekadyrovtsy
wereexcitedtoserveinthenewgovernmentstructure(Onkavkaz.com,April13).Kadyrov
hassofarshowntheabilitytokeeppracticallyalltheRussiansecurityservicesintherepublic
atbay.ItisunclearwhyandhowhisfriendViktorZolotovwillmoveintostripChechnyas
governorofhispersonalmilitarizedforces.
Duringhisannualcall-in,PutinonceagainreiteratedhissupportforKadyrov.Respondingto
thequestionbythecontroversialRussianjournalistSergeiDorenkoconcerningKadyrovs
statementsaboutenemiesofpeople,PutinremindedhisaudiencethatKadyrovoncefought
Russianforcesbutlaterchangedhisattitudeandbecameaconvincedsupporterofthe
RussianstateandChechnyasreintegrationintoit.Atthesametime,Putinrecognizedthat
KadyrovmayhaveoverreachedinhiszealtocondemnRussiasdomesticenemies,but
emphasizedthatChechnyasgovernorwouldeventuallylearnhowtoavoidsuchexcesses.
PutinconcludedhisdefenseofKadyrovwithanunprecedentedphrasePossibly,thereis
alsomyroleinthis[KadyrovsoverreactiontotheRussianopposition](Kremlin.ru,April
14).
ItiswellknownthatPutinnevertakesblameforanythingnegativethathappensinRussia.Yet,
hepartiallyacknowledgedhisroleinturningKadyrovintoamoremilitantsupporterofthe
Russianstatethanheoughttobe.Inthisway,PutinshowedsolidaritywithKadyrov,
reaffirmedhispersonalconnectiontotheChechengovernorandtherebypracticallyshielded
himfromattackswithintheRussiangovernment,atleastforthetimebeing.Thisprobably
meansthatKadyrovandhismilitaryforcesarelikelytoremainintact,eventhoughthe
kadyrovtsymightchangeappearanceandformalaffiliation.
Meanwhile,thecascadeofchangesatthefederallevelinRussiaiscontinuingatalowerlevel.
Accordingtothe URA.ruinformationagency,theheadoftheNorthCaucasianFederal
District,SergeiMelikov,islikelytobeappointeddeputytoViktorZolotov.Melikovwas
reportedlyclosetoZolotovinthepast.Inaddition,Melikovwasahigh-rankinggeneralofthe
interiorministryforcesthatpreviouslyoperatedintheNorthCaucasus.Hencehis
appointmentasZolotovsdeputywouldallowthelattertomanagetheNationalGuards
forcesintheregion.Melikovsappointmentwouldalsoopenupthepostofpresidentialenvoy
toNorthCaucasianFederalDistrict.MinisterforNorthCaucasianAffairsLevKuznetsov,
RussianFederalAgencyforNationalitiesheadIgorBarinov,andViktorIvanov,theformer
headoftheabolishedFederalServiceforDrugControl,arereportedlyamongthepossible
candidatesfortheposition(URA.ru,April15).
ItappearsthatthecreationoftheNationalGuardisboundtohavesignificantimplicationsfor
theNorthCaucasusbecauseofthelargeroletheInteriorMinistryTroopsplayedinthe
region.ItisstilltooearlytosayhowexactlytheNationalGuardwillaffectthesituationinthe
NorthCaucasus,butthepositionofRamzanKadyrovstillappearstobesolid,despitesome
mediaattacksagainsthim.TherumorsaboutthecrackdownonKadyrovsforcesappearto
beratherasignalaimedatpacifyingRussiannationalists,includingthehawksinthe
governmentandinsomeportionsofthesecurityservices,whodespisetheChechengovernor.
--ValeryDzutsati
ResistancetoRe-ImpositionofRussianDraftinNorthCaucasusGrowing

NoregionoftheRussianFederationhasagreaternumberofyoungmenwhocouldqualifyto
serveintheRussianmilitarythandoestheNorthCaucasus,thecombinedresultofrapid
demographicgrowthandtheabsenceofaRussianmilitarydraftthereformostofthelast20
years.Chechenofficialssaythereare86,000youngChechensreadyandabletoserve.While
inmanyethnicallyRussianareas,officialsarestrugglingtomeettheirdraftquotas
(Kasparov.ru,April14).
NordoesanyRussianregionhavealeadershipmorecommittedtotheideathathavingtheir
youngmenserveinthemilitaryisagoodthing.Indeed,NorthCaucasianleaderstendtosee
thisnotonlyasasolutiontomassiveunemploymentbutalsoasameansofintegratingthe
restiveregionintotherestoftheRussianFederation.TheheadsofChechnya,Dagestanand
Ingushetiahaveallcampaignedforarevivalofthedraftforthosereasonsaswellasto
demonstratetheirpersonalloyaltytotheKremlin(seeEDM,September25,2014).
ButtherestartingoftheRussianmilitarydraftintherepublicsoftheNorthCaucasusoverthe
lasttwoyearsis,attimes,sparkingresistanceamongthepopulationthere,leadingmany
youngmentogointohidingoreventojoinmilitantgroupsratherthantoserve.Reportsare
evenbeginningtoproliferatethatthedraftcouldbesuspendedinChechnya.
Twoyearsago,Moscowendeditspost-Soviet-erapolicyofnotdraftingNorthCaucasians,a
policyithadfirstbeguntoimposeduringtheChechenwarsattheinsistenceofthemilitary,
concernedaboutethnicconflictswithintheservicesandabouttherisksofprovidingmilitary
trainingtopeoplewhomightusethoseskillsagainstRussianforcesinthefield(seeEDM,July
10,2012).VasilyTonkoshkruvo,theheadofthesectionoftheRussianGeneralStaff
responsibleformanpower,announcedinApril2014thattherewouldnolongerbeany
limitationsonthenumberofChechens,IngushandDagestaniswhomaybedrafted.Instead,
theywouldbetreatedjustlikeeveryoneelse(Bigcaucasus.com,April2,2014).
WhilethereisnoindicationthatRussiancommanderswereinfavorofthischange,political
leadersinbothMoscowandtheNorthCaucasusrecognizedthatthepreviouspolicyof
excludingNorthCaucasiansfromthedraftwascounterproductiveinatleastthreeways:First,
theearlierpolicysuggestedthatMoscowdidnotviewthemortheirregionasfullyequalto
anyotherRussianlocale,whichmadetheirintegrationmoredifficult.Second,itinfuriated
manyethnicRussianswhoresentedthefactthattheirsonshadtoservewhileNorth
Caucasiansdidnot,exacerbatinganti-Caucasianattitudesathome.Meanwhile,thisangered
manyNorthCaucasians,whofoundthemselvesexcludedfromjobsinthesecurityservices
thatrequiremilitarybackgrounds(seeEDM,November4,2015).Andthird,thispolicymade
itincreasinglydifficultforMoscowtomeetitsdraftquotasbecauseoftheever-smallerdraft-
agecohortsamongethnicRussians.
ButnowthatRussiahasbeguntodraftNorthCaucasiansagain,ithasfacedproblemsnot
onlywithintheRussianarmy,whereethnictensionsremainhigh(see EDM,November20,
2014),butalsointheNorthCaucasusrepublicsthemselves,wheretheRussiandraftisturning
outtobeasunpopularorevenmoresothanitisinRussianregions.
InChechnya,rumorshavebeencirculatingthattheRussianmilitarywillcancelthedraftthere.
TheauthoritiesinGroznyhavedisputedsuchassertions,butinwaysthatsuggestthereislocal
oppositiontoserviceintheRussianArmedForcesandangeraboutMoscowscontinuing
discriminationagainstChechens.AkhmedDzhairanov,therepublicsmilitarycommissarwho
overseesthedraft,impliedasmuchwhenhesaidtherumorswereincorrect,that500
Chechenswerealreadyservinginthemilitary,andthatthedraftinChechnyashouldtakein
notthatnumberbutrathertensofthousands,becausesomanyyoungmenhadnothadthe
chancetoserveearlier.Werethattohappen,Moscowwouldmeetitsdraftquotaeasilybutit
wouldlikelyfaceotherproblemswithChechensandwithRussians(Newizv.ru,April12).
Meanwhile,inDagestan,themilitarycommissariatannouncedthattheRussianmilitarywould
takeinapproximately1,800youngDagestanisinthespringdraft,athirdmorethanithad
draftedayearago.Butasthedrafthasreturnedandisnowexpanding,theMakhachkala
commissariatpointedoutthatso,too,hasresistance.Atpresent,anddespitetheenthusiastic
supportforthedraftbyDagestanileaders,morethan2,000mensubjecttothedraftcannot
befound:theyhavefledtheirhomes,anditisentirelypossiblethattheyhavejoinedtheanti-
Russianunderground(VestnikKavkaza,April5).
SuchreportssuggestthatMoscowisgoingtohavetomovecautiouslyinre-extendingthe
draftintheNorthCaucasuslestitprovokewhatitmostfearsanewroundofviolent
resistancetoRussianruleacrossthatregion.
--PaulGoble
ExpertsWarnDagestaniAuthoritiesCrackdownonSalafistsCouldBackfire
OnApril15,theDagestaninewspaperNovoeDeloreportedthatpolicehadcrackeddown
onmosqueparishionersinMakhachkala.Accordingtothenewspaperssourcesamongthe
congregationofthemosqueonVengerskikhBoitsovStreet,thepolicerandomlydetainedup
to200people.Dozensofpoliceofficersreportedlysurroundedthemosqueandarrested
peoplewithoutanyobviousreason(NovoeDelo,April15).
OnApril14,thepolicesearchedtheVostochnaya(Eastern)mosqueinKhasavyurt.They
confiscatedcomputersbutdidnotfindanyforbiddencontent,accordingtoparishioners
(KavkazskyUzel,April14).Earlier,onApril8,theimamofthemosqueinKhasavyurt,
MagomednabiMagomedov,wasplacedunderarrest.WitnessessaidthatMagomedovwent
tothelocalpolicestation,wherehedemandedthereleaseofBolnichnaya(Hospital)
mosqueparishionerswhohadbeendetainedearlier.Thepolicedetainedabouttenpersonson
April8,andlaterreleasedallbutone.Theparishionersofthemosqueclaimedthatthepolice
beatupsomeofthedetainees(KavkazskyUzel,April8).
SinceSeptember2015,twoimamshavebeenkilledinDagestanandthreeforciblyremoved
fromtheiroffices.TheDagestaniauthoritiessignaledthattheyintendtotreatallSalafistswith
suspicion,regardlessofhowmoderatetheyare.Theauthoritiesstartedtheprocessof
conspicuouslyshuttingdownmosquesandreplacingmosqueimamsin2015.Therepublican
governmentisapparentlyundertheimpressionthatlikethearmedinsurgency,theSalafist
movementinDagestanisalsowaningorcanbecurbedwithsufficienteffortbythestate.
However,expertswarnthisisadangerouspaththatcouldfurtherdestabilizetherepublic
ratherthanpacifyitandfinallyresolvetheinsurgencyissue.Besides,thegovernmentscrusade
againsttheMuslimswhodonotbelongtotheofficiallyapprovedbranchofIslamlookslikea
politicalpersecutioncampaignratherthanacounterinsurgencycampaign.
Russianhumanrightsactivistsareacutelyawareoftheshiftinthegovernmentspolicies.The
Moscow-basedMemorialhumanrightscenterstronglyspokeoutagainstthedetentionof
MagomednabiMagomedov.Theauthoritieschargedtheclericwithpubliccallstocarryout
terroristattacks,justifyingterrorismandincitinghatredandanimosity.OnApril9,acourtin
MakhachkalasentencedMagomedovtotwomonthsofpreliminarydetention.Memorialsaid
thattheauthoritiesactionsagainstthemoderateSalafistleaderwereaconscious
provocationthatwasdesignedtodestabilizethesituationintherepublic.Rightsactivistssaid
thatMagomedovhadconsistentlycondemnedviolenceandspokenoutagainstMuslims
joininginsurgenciesinDagestanorSyria.Memorialsstatementnotedthatalogicof
suppressionmaybeatwork.Apparently,thereareforcesamongthesecurityservicesof
Dagestanthatcanoperateonlyinextremecircumstances,andonlywithintheparadigmof
stateterror,Memorialsaid.Confrontation,repressionofanydissentcivilandreligiousis
afamiliaranddesirableoperatingenvironmentforthem.Theyrejecttheideaofa constructive
dialoguebetweentheauthoritiesandsociety.Asaresultinsaneactions,attemptstoshut
downanumberofmosques,repeatedmassarbitrarydetentionsofmosquecongregations
afterFridayprayers,andprisonsentencesofimamsontrumped-upcharges(EkhoMoskvy,
April10).
TheindependentDagestaninewspaper Chernovikwarnedthatcounterproductive
governmentactionscouldincreasetheradicalizationoftherepublicsMuslimcommunity.
AccordingtothenewspapersanalystIslamAbdullaev,theDagestaniauthoritiespaintas
SalafistsallMuslimswhodonotconformtothestandardsoftheofficialMuslimbodyinthe
republic.TheauthoralsoclaimsthatalargeportionoftheSalafiyouthdisliketheinsurgentsas
muchasgovernmentofficialsdo.ReferringtotheRussian-Caucasianwarofthe19thcentury,
AbdullaevpointsoutthatinthepastitwastheSufis,nottheSalafists,whofoughtthe
Russians.TheanalystwarnedthattheradicalizationofMuslimsintherepublichasbeenan
artificialprocessdrivenbytheMuslimsreactionandoverreactiontounjustifiedpressureby
governmentagencies.TherecentdeclineinviolenceinDagestanshouldnotbeoverestimated,
asitistiedtotheoutflowofDagestaniradicalstotheMiddleEast,accordingtoAbdullaev.
TheoutflowofDagestaniradicalstotheMiddleEasthasended,astheideaofan
instantaneouscaliphatetheIslamicStateislessappealingnow,andtheborderwith
Turkeyislesstransparentandhardertocross.Ifthegovernmentcontinuesitspolicies,they
willbackfire,causingasurgeinthedomesticinsurgency,theauthorwrote.Heassertedthat
theradicals,infact,disliketheSalafistmosquesbecausetheyteachtheircongregationstostay
awayfromviolentgroups.Abdullaevconcludedwitharhetoricalquestion,askingwhetherthe
policeinDagestanisactuallyinterestedinpeaceorifitisconsciouslyworkingtodestabilize
therepublic(Chernovik.net,April15).
AstheDagestaniauthoritiesrampuptheircampaignofintimidationagainstMuslim
communitiestheydonotcontrol,theiractionsessentiallyturnintopoliticalpersecution.Even
thoughthegovernmentofficialsclaimthattheyarefightingpotentialoractualterrorists,it
appearsthattheyare,infact,usingcounterterroristrhetorictoclampdownontheirpolitical
foes.
--ValeryDzutsati
MurderofChecheninTurkeyJustLatestinSeriesofApparentRussianKillings
Abroad
Accordingtoopenmediasources,overthepastfiveyears,fiverepresentativesofthe
ChechenRepublicofIchkeriaandtheCaucasusEmiratehavebeenkilledinTurkey.Allfive
wereactivelyinvolvedintheongoingarmedconflictintheNorthCaucasus(KavkazskyUzel,
April15).Afteronerecentsuchassassination,theTurkishauthoritiesdetainedanethnic
ChechenfromGeorgiasPankisi,TemurMakhauri.TheTurkishauthoritiessuspected
MakhaurioftiestoRussiasFederalSecurityService(FSB)andinvolvementinthe
assassinationofahigh-profilerepresentativeoftheCaucasusEmirateinTurkey,AliOsaev,
whowaskilledonFebruary26,2009(Lenta.ru,February19,2014).
TheTurkishsecurityservicesarrestedtwoRussians,52-year-oldYuriAnisimovand55-year-
oldAleksandrSmirnov,inIstanbul.TheauthoritiessuspectthetwoarrestedRussianmenof
killingaChechen,AbdulvakhidEdilgeriev,inTurkey,onNovember1,2015.Edilgerievwas
mostlyknownforhisroleastheadministratorofthewebsiteoftheNorthCaucasianmilitants,
Kavkazcenter.EdilgerievwasmarriedtoMovladiUdugovsniece,whichwastheprimary
reasonforthewidespreadmediacoverageofhiskillinginTurkey.Theauthoritiesarrestedthe
suspectsonApril8,butthemediareportedtheirarrestonlyfivedayslater,whichwas
probablynotanaccident.AgainstthebackdropofthestrainedrelationsbetweenRussiaand
Turkey,theTurkishsecurityservicesmostlikelyorganizedtheleakofinformationaboutthe
arrest(Informnapalm.org,April13).

RussianauthoritiesquicklyrespondedtothearrestsinTurkey.AccordingtotheRussianside,
AleksandrSmirnovisactuallyValidLurakhmaev,whoisnotaspybutaChechencriminal
wantedbytheRussianauthoritiesinconnectiontoaseriesofmurders.Thenewspaper
NovayaGazetareportedthatLurakhmaevhadtiestohigh-profileofficialsinRussia(Novaya
Gazeta,July9,2012).Thus,RussiaimmediatelysoughttoportrayLurakhmaevasanordinary
criminalratherthanapossiblespy.Atthesametime,theRussianconsulgeneralinIstanbul
showedanunusuallyhighinterestinthesuspects,havingmetthemthesamedaytheTurkish
authoritiesmadetheirarrestpublic.Moreover,theRussianconsulgeneralwaspresentatthe
preliminarycourthearingthedayafterhevisitedthem,andreportedthatthesuspectspleaded
notguiltyandrefusedtoanswertheinvestigatorsquestions(RIANovosti,April15).
Meanwhile,Turkishmediaareconvincedthatthesuspectshaveprovidedevidenceoftheir
spyingactivitiestotheTurkishauthorities(HurriyetDailyNews,April13).
ChechenimmigrantsdonotfeelsafeinTurkey.TheRussiansecurityservicescloselywatch
localactivistswhorepresenttheNorthCaucasusarmedIslamicundergroundmovementin
Turkey.ManymilitantswhofoughtinChechnyaandwentformedicaltreatmentinTurkey
oftenremaininthecountry.Thewivesandrelativesofformermilitants,theformerleadership
ofIchkeria,representativesoftheCaucasusEmirate,andsupportersofthevirtualcaliphateall
endedupinTurkey.TodaysChechencommunityinTurkeyismadeupofseveralthousand
peoplewhoaredividedintomultiplefactionsthatdonotcooperatebutcompetewitheach
other.AlargegroupalsoexistsofChechenbusinessmenwhoengageinlegitimatebusiness
activitiesbutwhodistancethemselvesfromthepoliticalrefugeesinTurkey.TheRussian
securityservicesareinterestedintheprocessesgoingoninsidetheChechendiasporain
Turkey.Hence,moreassassinationsandarrestsofkillersarelikelytofollow.
TheRussiansecurityserviceshavekilledChechensnotonlyinTurkey.Forexample,
ZelimkhanYandarbievwaskilledinQatarscapitalDohain2004(Newsru.com,February
13,2004).ThepoliceinQatarquicklyarrestedtheperpetratorstwoofficersoftheRussian
militarysMainIntelligenceDirectorate(GRU),AnatolyYablochkov,andVasilyPugachev.
MoscowmanagedtoconvinceQatartohandoverthesuspectstoRussia.ThenRussian
defenseministerSergeiIvanovpersonallymetthemonaredcarpetattheairport,andthey
wereimmediatelysetfree(Onkavkaz.com,April14).
AnothernotoriousmurderofaChechenabroadandoutsideTurkeytookplaceinAustria.In
January2009,aformerbodyguardofRamzanKadyrov,UmarIsrapilov,waskilledinbroad
daylightinVienna(Gazeta.ru,April26,2010).KadyrovsrivalSulimYamadaevwaskilledin
DubaiinMarch2009(Lenta.ru,January2012).FormerFSBofficerAlexanderLitvinenko,
whowascloselyconnectedtotheChechenissueandreceivedpoliticalasylumintheUnited
Kingdom,diedofalethaldoseofradioactivepolonium-210,inLondon,onNovember22,
2006(Vedomosti.ru,January21,2016).
UnlikethenotoriouskillingsinQatar,Russiansecurityservicesalmostalwaysuseethnic
ChechenstocarryouttheassassinationsofotherChechens,whileRussiandiplomatshave
practicallyalwaysprovidedsupporttothekillers(Rfi.fr,May19,2011).Themiddlemen
betweenthekillersandtheRussiangovernmentareusuallyethnicChechensemployedat
Russianembassies.Russiansusethemiddlementoestablishtrustamongmembersofthelocal
Chechendiasporas.TheRussiansusuallysacrificethekillers,whiletheChechenmiddlemen
areevacuatedtoRussia.
MoscowregardstheexistenceofaChechendiasporaabroadasathreatandwantsto
neutralizeitor,atleastmakeitapolitical.However,thetrendisthattheChechendiaspora,
especiallythatpartofitconnectedtotheChechenRepublicofIchkeria,isbecoming
increasinglyactiveinpolitics,whichattractsRussianattention.Thismeansthattherewilllikely
benewvictimsamongChechenswholiveabroad.
--MairbekVatchagaev
IngushAuthoritiesOfferRosyPictureofFightAgainstTerrorism
Inhisrecentspeech,theheadoftheRepublicofIngushetia,Yunus-BekYevkurov,saidthat
severalterrorism-relateddraftbillsareunderconsiderationintheRussianStateDuma.He
notedthatitwasimportanttoprovidealegaldefinitionofanewtypeofcrimeinternational
terrorism.Itisthetypeofthreatthatourcountryhasencounteredforthepast20years,but
wehavenotgivenitalegaldefinition,Yevkurovsaid(vestikavkaza.ru,April8).Thenew
legislationwillspecifythepenaltiesforhelpingterroristsandfinancingterrorism,whichwill
allowthegovernmenttousethelawonfightingterrorismmorewidely,includingthe
prosecutionofrelativesofthoseconvictedofterrorism.GivenRussiasrealities,the
governmentfrequentlyuseslegislationtopunishpoliticaloppositionalongwithactual
terrorists.Theauthorities,forexample,canspecifyanyactionbyrightsactivistsassupporting
terrorismandcrackdownonorganizationsthattrytoprotectpeoplefromviolationsoftheir
rightsbythegovernment.
Inanotherspeech,Yevkurovsaid:WehavenotseensignificantactivitiesoftheIslamicState
(IS)intherepublicyet.Twoyearsagowedestroyedonegroupofmilitants.Sincethen,we
havenotseenanynoteworthymanifestationsoftherebelgroupsandtheirmembersin
Ingushetia(tass.ru,April11).
AccordingtoYevkurov,therecruitmentofterroriststransitionedintoInternet-basedsocial
networks,withrecruiterstryingtoattractmoreyoungpeoplefromtheNorthCaucasus.
Ingushetiasgovernorsaidtherepublicssecurityserviceshadregistered97suspected
militants,ofwhom54havebeen,orare,ontheterritoryoftheIS,orwerekilled.The
securityservicescloselymonitortheremainingindividuals,Yevkurovasserted.Itisan
optimisticviewoftheproblem,becauseitishighlyunlikelythatthesecurityservicesmanaged
tolocateeveryonewhovisitedSyriafromIngushetia.Relativesofyoungpeoplewho
immigratedtoEuropeareforcedtoappearonSkypetoconvincetheauthoritiestheyarein
Europe,notinSyria.Todoso,theyshowthemselveswiththeEiffelTowerinthebackground
orholdupthelatestlocalnewspaperswhentalkingtoanFSB(FederalSecurityService)
officeronSkype.However,afterthegovernmenthasascertainedthatthepersontheyare
lookingforisinEurope,thatpersoncouldstilltraveltoSyriaandthegovernmentwillbe
unabletofollowhimthere.
Thefictitiousnatureofthefightagainstterrorismcanbeobservedeverywhere.Forexample,
AndreiStrizhov,actingdeputyoftheheadoftheMainInvestigativeDirectorateoftheRussian
InvestigativeCommittee,announcedwithgreatpompthatthenumberofcriminalcasesrelated
toIslamicStateincreasedalmosttwo-foldin2016comparedtotheprevious
year(gazeta.ru,April14).WhilesomemightassumethatmeanspolicestartedtosolveIS-
relatedcrimesattwicetherateasthepreviousyear,infact,investigatorshadthreesuchcases
in2015andlaunchedfivemoreduringthefirstthreemonthsof2016.Thisallowedthemto
speakofdoublingthecriminalcaseseventhoughtheytotalonlyfivecases.InNorth
CaucasianrepublicslikeIngushetia,therearedozensofIS-relatedcriminalcases.Attheend
ofMarch,Ingushetiasauthoritieslaunchedtwocriminalcasesagainstindividualssuspectedof
participatinginthewarinSyriaonthesideofIS(kavkaz-uzel.ru,March28).
RussiasInvestigativeCommitteeinIngushetiasaidinastatementthata22-year-oldresident
oftherepublichadvoluntarilyjoinedtheillegalarmedgroupQatibaAhmada,whichwaspart
ofIS,inJuly2013.Subsequently,thesuspectreportedlytookanactivepartintheclashes
withthegovernmentforcesofSyria.Theinvestigatorsapparentlyforgotthatitwasunlikely
thisresidentofIngushetiaparticipatedinthewarbackinthesummerof2013becausethefirst
NorthCaucasianfighterstoannouncetheirloyaltytoAbuBakralBaghdadididsoalittle
later,inthefallof2013.UmarShishani(TarkhanBatirashvili)wasamongthefirstto
leaveJaishalMuhajireenwalAnsar(theArmyofEmigrantsandHelpers)andjointheIS
(kavkaz-uzel.ru,March22).
IngushetiasauthoritieslaunchedaninvestigationtargetingoneofthebestknownChechen
commandersinSyria,MuslimShishani(MuradMargoshvili)(twitter.com,April16),whois
actuallyaGeorgiancitizen,notaRussiancitizen.Overall,inthepastseveralmonths,the
Ingushauthoritiesrampedupapublicrelationscampaigntrumpetingtheirfightagainst
terrorism.AWantedinIngushetiasectionhasbeenplacedoneveryknownsocialmedia
networkinRussia.Someoneidentifiedas25-year-oldTamerlanMankiev,whoreportedly
joinedtherebelgroupin2014,isalsoamongthepeoplewantedfortheirinvolvementwiththe
IS,asis30-year-oldOsmanDobriev(rozysk06.livejournal.com,April13).Officially,the
Ingushauthoritiesarelookingforthreepeople,buttheyhavealreadydetainedseveraldozen.
Evenwhenparticipantsofillegalarmedgroupsabroadvoluntarilyturnthemselvesin,theystill
faceupto10yearsbehindbars.Thus,Ingushetiaspoliceareunlikelytoconvinceanyoneto
giveuphisfreedomfor10yearsinaRussianprison.Thoserebelswhoreturnfromthe
MiddleEasttotheNorthCaucasususingforgedpassportsdonotexpecttobepardonedby
theauthoritiesbutarehopingtojoinlocalinsurgentgroups.Thatisthemainthreattheypose
toRussia.ThecurrentrelativecalmintheNorthCaucasuscouldendatanytimeifthosewho
returnfromSyriacontinuefightingintheregion.Theonlyquestioniswhethertheflowof
RussiancitizensfromSyriatotheNorthCaucasuswillbesufficientlylargeforthat.
--MairbekVatchagaev
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April22,Volume13,Issue79
INTHISISSUE
*RomaniabecomesanactivepoliticalplayerinMoldova
*YevkurovplaysdownIslamicStatethreatinIngushetia
*Georgia,Armenia,RussiaandIransignontojointregionalelectricitymarket
*Ukrainemovesforwardondefensesectorreforms

**VisittheJamestownBlogonRussiaandEurasia(http://www.jamestown.org/blog)

RomaniaBiddingForInfluenceInMoldova(PartOne)

ForthefirsttimesincethefallofcommunisminRomaniaandtheSovietUnion(1989,1991),
RomaniahasbecomeanactivecontestantforinfluenceinitsownrightintheRepublicof
Moldova.Thispolicyhascomeaboutsuddenly,buttheprerequisiteswereaccumulatingto
almostpredetermineamoreactiveandambitiousRomanianpolicyinMoldova.

Thispolicy(ascurrentlyshaped),however,isheavilybettingonthewronghorse:Vlad
Plahotniuc,thesymbolofMoldovaskleptocracy.OfallMoldovanpublicfigures,Plahotniuc
hastheworstnegativeratingatmorethan90percent(thedifferencebetweenapprovaland
disapprovalrates)inpublicopinionpolls.ButPlahotniucholdsthestate,lawenforcement,and
theeconomyofMoldovafirmlyinhisgrip,andhasdevelopedapervasivepoliticalapparatus
inthecountry.ThoseRomaniancircleswhostandbehindthispolicybelievethatworking
throughPlahotniucwouldbethemosteffectivewaytoincreaseRomanianinfluencein
Moldova,containandmitigateRussianinfluence,andcontinueMoldovasEuropean
orientation.ExponentsofthispolicyinBucharestdesignatePlahotniucsgovernmentaspro-
European,despitealltheevidencetothecontrary.

Suchrealpolitikisdefensibleaslongasitpromisestoachievethedesiredresults.Butitcan
boomerang,ifMoldovaspopulaceperceivesRomaniaasanallyofMoldovasemblematic
oligarch,andtheEuropeanorientationassynonymouswithPlahotniucscontrolofthe
stateinthenameofstability.Inthatcase,RomaniaandtheEuropeanUnionwilllosethe
contestinMoldovatothelocalpro-RussiapartiesandRussia.
ThispolicyhastheupperhandinBucharestpresently,buttheredoesnotseemtobea
whole-of-governmentapproachtoit.Policy-makingregardingMoldovausedtobefirmly
concentratedinthestatepresidencyduringTraianBasescustenure(2004-2014).Presentlyit
isnotclearwhetherthepolicyoriginatesfromasingledecision-makingcenterorotherwise.
PresidentBasescuspolicywassuffusedwithirredentistundertonesbutthecurrent
governmentandPresidentKlausIohannis(electedinlate2014)donotusesuchtones.Yet,
fromBasescutoIohannis,majorelementsofcontinuitypersistinRomaniaspolicytoward
Moldova:thepolicykeepswithinthegeneralboundsofaEuro-Atlanticconsensus,andit
avoidsanyappearanceofaRomania-versus-RussiacontestinMoldova.IfanythingRomania
addslegitimacytoitsMoldovapolicybycoordinatingitwithBrusselsand(whentheUSpays
attention)withWashington.
TheprerequisitestoamoreactivistRomanianpolicyarebothpositiveones,resultingfrom
Romaniasincreasinglysuccessfuldevelopment,andnegativeprerequisites,necessitating
responsestoseverechallengesinandaroundMoldovaandinEuropewritlarge.
Inthatsense,negativeprerequisitesinclude:theEuropeanUnionsmultipleinternalcrises,
alongwiththefailureoftheEUsEasternPartnershipmisuseofthepro-Europebrandby
thePlahotniuc-controlledgovernmentin2013-2015,tarnishingthatpoliticalbrandfull
suspensionofWesternloansandgrantstoMoldovasinceearly2015Moldovasfailureasa
stateandaneconomy,excepttheconcentrationofpowerinonepairofhandsthatprovides
stabilityrisingpopularityoftheEurasiaoption,currentlysurpassingpro-Europepreferences
inMoldovaspublicopinionpollssurgingpro-RussiapartiesinMoldova,faroutdistancingthe
pro-Westernpartiesatpresentinthepolls(Unimedia,April13,21)and,hypothetically,
RussiandestabilizationoperationsinMoldovaifUkrainessituationdeteriorates,a
contingencythatcannotberuledout.Theserecentdevelopmentscumulativelyrequire
Romaniatoassumeunprecedentedresponsibilitiesintermsofstabilizingandconsolidating
Moldova.
PositiveprerequisiteshavealsoaccumulatedrecentlytoenableanactivistRomanianrole.
Romaniasimage,traditionallyunedifyingwithmuchofMoldovaspopulace,issignificantly
improving.EconomicgrowthmakesRomaniamoreattractivetoMoldovascitizens.Romania
nowenjoysannualbudgetsurplusesandisofferinga150millioneuroloantoMoldova,on
conditionsagreedwiththeEUandIMF,butlessstringentthantheirs(Adevarul,April1).
Romaniascrackdownonhigh-levelcorruptionstronglyresonatesinMoldova,wherethe
issueofcorruptionhasalmostbecomeanationalobsession,andRomaniaisseenincreasingly
asamodeltofollow.WithgenerationalchangeinMoldova,theproportionofMoldovans
identifyingthemselvesasRomanianstillintheminorityhasrisentoatleast20percentin
recentpublicopinionpolls,doublethe10to12percentsharerecordedduringthelast25
years.Theserecentdevelopmentscreateafarstrongerresourcebaseandwiderscopefor
RomanianpoliciestowardMoldova.
Romaniascurrentpolicyobjectivesinclude,intheshortterm:ensuringpoliticalstability
throughPlahotniucsgovernment,hisparliamentarymajority,andtheadministrativeresources
andlawenforcementapparatusunderhiscontrolavoidingparliamentaryelectionsin
Moldova,aslongaspossibleandatallcost,forfearthatpro-Russiapartieswouldwinand
shiftMoldovatowardRussiadevelopRomaniasownpoliticalcontacts(whicharestillvery
limited)inMoldova,increasethepresenceofRomaniasmassmedia(alsoverylimited)in
Moldova,andencouragetheupgradingofMoldovaspartnershipwithNATO.Inthemedium
term,itenvisagesbuildingelectricityandnaturalgasinter-connectionsbetweenRomania(i.e.,
theEUsenergymarkets)andMoldova,soastofreeMoldovafromdependenceonRussian
gasandTransnistrian-suppliedelectricity.Andintheshort,mediumandlongterm,Bucharest
willundoubtedlypromoteRomaniannational-culturalawarenessintheRepublicofMoldova,
withoutofficiallyadvocatingRomania-Moldovaunification,butalsowithoutcurbingunofficial
unionistactivities.
--VladimirSocor
IngushAuthoritiesOfferRosyPictureofFightAgainstTerrorism
Inhisrecentspeech,theheadoftheRepublicofIngushetia,Yunus-BekYevkurov,saidthat
severalterrorism-relateddraftbillsareunderconsiderationintheRussianStateDuma.He
notedthatitwasimportanttoprovidealegaldefinitionofanewtypeofcrimeinternational
terrorism.Itisthetypeofthreatthatourcountryhasencounteredforthepast20years,but
wehavenotgivenitalegaldefinition,Yevkurovsaid(vestikavkaza.ru,April8).Thenew
legislationwillspecifythepenaltiesforhelpingterroristsandfinancingterrorism,whichwill
allowthegovernmenttousethelawonfightingterrorismmorewidely,includingthe
prosecutionofrelativesofthoseconvictedofterrorism.GivenRussiasrealities,the
governmentfrequentlyuseslegislationtopunishpoliticaloppositionalongwithactual
terrorists.Theauthorities,forexample,canspecifyanyactionbyrightsactivistsassupporting
terrorismandcrackdownonorganizationsthattrytoprotectpeoplefromviolationsoftheir
rightsbythegovernment.
Inanotherspeech,Yevkurovsaid:WehavenotseensignificantactivitiesoftheIslamicState
(IS)intherepublicyet.Twoyearsagowedestroyedonegroupofmilitants.Sincethen,we
havenotseenanynoteworthymanifestationsoftherebelgroupsandtheirmembersin
Ingushetia(tass.ru,April11).
AccordingtoYevkurov,therecruitmentofterroriststransitionedintoInternet-basedsocial
networks,withrecruiterstryingtoattractmoreyoungpeoplefromtheNorthCaucasus.
Ingushetiasgovernorsaidtherepublicssecurityserviceshadregistered97suspected
militants,ofwhom54havebeen,orare,ontheterritoryoftheIS,orwerekilled.The
securityservicescloselymonitortheremainingindividuals,Yevkurovasserted.Itisan
optimisticviewoftheproblem,becauseitishighlyunlikelythatthesecurityservicesmanaged
tolocateeveryonewhovisitedSyriafromIngushetia.Relativesofyoungpeoplewho
immigratedtoEuropeareforcedtoappearonSkypetoconvincetheauthoritiestheyarein
Europe,notinSyria.Todoso,theyshowthemselveswiththeEiffelTowerinthebackground
orholdupthelatestlocalnewspaperswhentalkingtoanFSB(FederalSecurityService)
officeronSkype.However,afterthegovernmenthasascertainedthatthepersontheyare
lookingforisinEurope,thatpersoncouldstilltraveltoSyriaandthegovernmentwillbe
unabletofollowhimthere.
Thefictitiousnatureofthefightagainstterrorismcanbeobservedeverywhere.Forexample,
AndreiStrizhov,actingdeputyoftheheadoftheMainInvestigativeDirectorateoftheRussian
InvestigativeCommittee,announcedwithgreatpompthatthenumberofcriminalcasesrelated
toIslamicStateincreasedalmosttwo-foldin2016comparedtotheprevious
year(gazeta.ru,April14).WhilesomemightassumethatmeanspolicestartedtosolveIS-
relatedcrimesattwicetherateasthepreviousyear,infact,investigatorshadthreesuchcases
in2015andlaunchedfivemoreduringthefirstthreemonthsof2016.Thisallowedthemto
speakofdoublingthecriminalcaseseventhoughtheytotalonlyfivecases.InNorth
CaucasianrepublicslikeIngushetia,therearedozensofIS-relatedcriminalcases.Attheend
ofMarch,Ingushetiasauthoritieslaunchedtwocriminalcasesagainstindividualssuspectedof
participatinginthewarinSyriaonthesideofIS(kavkaz-uzel.ru,March28).
RussiasInvestigativeCommitteeinIngushetiasaidinastatementthata22-year-oldresident
oftherepublichadvoluntarilyjoinedtheillegalarmedgroupQatibaAhmada,whichwaspart
ofIS,inJuly2013.Subsequently,thesuspectreportedlytookanactivepartintheclashes
withthegovernmentforcesofSyria.Theinvestigatorsapparentlyforgotthatitwasunlikely
thisresidentofIngushetiaparticipatedinthewarbackinthesummerof2013becausethefirst
NorthCaucasianfighterstoannouncetheirloyaltytoAbuBakralBaghdadididsoalittle
later,inthefallof2013.UmarShishani(TarkhanBatirashvili)wasamongthefirstto
leaveJaishalMuhajireenwalAnsar(theArmyofEmigrantsandHelpers)andjointheIS
(kavkaz-uzel.ru,March22).
IngushetiasauthoritieslaunchedaninvestigationtargetingoneofthebestknownChechen
commandersinSyria,MuslimShishani(MuradMargoshvili)(twitter.com,April16),whois
actuallyaGeorgiancitizen,notaRussiancitizen.Overall,inthepastseveralmonths,the
Ingushauthoritiesrampedupapublicrelationscampaigntrumpetingtheirfightagainst
terrorism.AWantedinIngushetiasectionhasbeenplacedoneveryknownsocialmedia
networkinRussia.Someoneidentifiedas25-year-oldTamerlanMankiev,whoreportedly
joinedtherebelgroupin2014,isalsoamongthepeoplewantedfortheirinvolvementwiththe
IS,asis30-year-oldOsmanDobriev(rozysk06.livejournal.com,April13).Officially,the
Ingushauthoritiesarelookingforthreepeople,buttheyhavealreadydetainedseveraldozen.
Evenwhenparticipantsofillegalarmedgroupsabroadvoluntarilyturnthemselvesin,theystill
faceupto10yearsbehindbars.Thus,Ingushetiaspoliceareunlikelytoconvinceanyoneto
giveuphisfreedomfor10yearsinaRussianprison.Thoserebelswhoreturnfromthe
MiddleEasttotheNorthCaucasususingforgedpassportsdonotexpecttobepardonedby
theauthoritiesbutarehopingtojoinlocalinsurgentgroups.Thatisthemainthreattheypose
toRussia.ThecurrentrelativecalmintheNorthCaucasuscouldendatanytimeifthosewho
returnfromSyriacontinuefightingintheregion.Theonlyquestioniswhethertheflowof
RussiancitizensfromSyriatotheNorthCaucasuswillbesufficientlylargeforthat.
--MairbekVatchagaev
RussiaAltersGeopoliticalBalanceinSouthCaucasusWithNewEnergyProject
OnApril13,theenergyministersofRussia,Georgia,ArmeniaandIranmetintheArmenian
capitalofYerevan,wheretheyagreedtocreateasingle,commonelectricitymarketamong
thesecountries.Forthispurpose,bilateralRussia-Georgia,Armenia-Georgia,andArmenia-
Iranprojectsarebeingplannedtoexpandthecapabilitiesofthefourneighborsenergy
systems(News.am,April13).
Specifically,theRussia-Georgiaprojectenvisagessynchronizingthetwocountrieselectricity
grids.TheGeorgia-Armeniaprojectaimstobuildtrans-borderpowerlinesandwillbe
completedbytheendof2018.TheArmenia-Iranprojectforeseesconstructionofa400-
kilovoltelectricitylinethatwillsupplyIranwithArmenianelectricityinexchangeforIranian
naturalgasbeingsenttotheYerevanThermalPowerPlant.Theprojectwillbefinishedbythe
endof2017.Oncealltheseprojectsarecompleted,theelectricitynetworksofthefour
countrieswillbeabletocoordinateanenergycapacityof1,200megawatts(MW),enough
forcommercial,barterandanyothertypeofsupply(Arka.am,April13).
Needlesstosay,theseenergyprojectswillundoubtedlybringthefourcountriescloser,
facilitatingnotonlyenergy,butalsooveralleconomiccooperationandintegrationinthe
Caucasusregion.Yet,whetherornotthisisapositivedevelopmentforitsparticipantswill
dependontheultimateresultsoftheaforementionedkeyenergyprojects.
Atfirstglance,theseprojectsappearinnocuousandeveneconomicallybeneficialforallsides.
Buteconomiccooperation,especiallyinaregionasgeopoliticallyvolatileastheCaucasus,
neverexistsinisolation.Ittendstobedrivenbydeeperoftenpoliticalcalculationsand
resultinfar-reachinggeopoliticalrepercussions,especiallywhensuchcooperationinvolvesa
revanchistpower.Undoubtedly,Russiaisandwillcontinuetouseanymeansatitsdisposalto
solidifyitsinfluenceintheCaucasusandbeyondinEurasia.Therecentlyagreed-to
quadrilateralenergymarketseemsdesignedtoadvancethisgoal.Firstandforemost,it
createsahugespaceforenergy(andhence,economic)cooperation,stretchingfromRussiato
Iran,inwhichRussia,simplybecauseofitssize,willalmostcertainlydominate.
Second,itlocksGeorgiaintoenergycooperation,andpossiblyfutureenergydependence,
withRussia,fromwhichthecountrymanagedtodetachitselfaftermuchhardshipfrom2004
2008.EconomicbenefitsofthisrenewedcooperationwithMoscowarefarfromclear,and
theGeorgiangovernmenthasyettoprovideanysatisfactoryexplanationsforthispolicy
coursetotheGeorgianpublic.Thepoliticalrationalealsoseemsratherperplexing,giventhat
20percentofGeorgiasterritoryremainsunderRussianmilitaryoccupation.Itisdifficultto
arguethatenergycooperationwithRussiawilldoanythingtorestoreGeorgiasterritorial
integrityinthemediumorlongterm.Aboveall,Russiaslong-standingrecordofbeingan
unreliableenergypartnertoGeorgiaandEuropemoregenerally(seeEDM,March23,2006
November9,2006January16,2009),givesnoguaranteethatthepastwillnotrepeatitself.
Moreover,theenergyprojectbringsRussiassatelliteArmeniaevenclosertoMoscow,asit
locksYerevanintoonemoreRussianarrangement.Againstthisbackground,recentpublic
protestsinYerevanoverRussianarmssalestoAzerbaijanand,moregenerally,against
MoscowsoverwhelminginfluenceinArmeniaseempowerless,atleastintheshortand
mediumterm(News.az,April16Lragir.am,April19).
Furthermore,thejointelectricityprojectsolidifiestheRussian-Iraniangeopoliticalaxisinthe
CaucasusandthewiderMiddleEast.IransaccesstotheArmenianenergymarketposesno
threattoMoscow,asArmeniaseemslockedsafelywithinRussiasorbit,whiletheprojectat
thesametimeprovidesadditionalincentivesandavenueforcooperationbetweentheregions
twomainanti-Westernpowers(IranandRussia).
Russia,Armenia,GeorgiaandIransenergycooperationfurthersidelinesAzerbaijan,a
participantineverymajorregionalenergyprojectsincethemid-1990s.Subsequently,it
furtherincreasesAzerbaijanssenseofregionalisolation,whichmayforceBakutoseek
closertieswithMoscow.Thefirstsignsofthisarealreadyevident:Azerbaijan,infact,
becameoneofthemajorpurchasersofRussianarmsinrecentyears(Azernews.az,March
18).Curiously,MoscowseesitspositionintheSouthCaucasusassounassailablethatitdoes
notseemparticularlyworriedabouthowArmenia,Russiaskeysatelliteintheregionand
Azerbaijansarchenemy,willreacttosuchintensemilitaryarmstradebetweenitsmainally
andenemy.Sofar,Moscowseemsdeterminedtoplayawin-wingame,wiringuptheregion
withanewelectricityinfrastructureproject,whiledealingsuccessfullywithoneofitsmain
losers,Azerbaijan.
Overall,Russiaisclearlyactivelyworkingtochangethegeopoliticalbalanceofpowerinthe
SouthCaucasus.ThelatestenergyprojectistheKremlinsmostrecentsteptowardthisgoal.
Astheprojectprogresses,itsgeopoliticalrepercussionswillgraduallybecomeclearer.
However,itisunlikelytobethelastvehicleofthistypedesignedtoboostMoscows
ambitionsintheregion.
--VasiliRukhadze
UkrainesNewConceptPaperonSecurityandDefenseReform
OnMarch16,UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkoapprovedtheConceptforthe
DevelopmentoftheSecurityandDefenseSector(President.gov.ua,March16).The
documentlaysouttheWesternvisionforUkrainessecurityanddefensesectorreformand
specifiesthegoalsforthisprocess.Theconceptpaperalsoshowsthatsecuritysectorreform
islikelytodevelopataslowpaceandthatitwilltakesubstantialtimetobeimplemented.The
paperfurtherdetailstheinherentriskstoreformfromproblemsarisingfromeconomic
solvencyandsustainability.
Theconceptpapersuggestsacentrallymanagedandcoordinatedsystemofreformsforthe
securityanddefensesector.Yet,somereformplansforspecificinstitutionslaidoutinthis
paperlookasiftheyhavedifferentdesigns,showingthattheoverallreformprocessisat
differentstagesacrossseveralinstitutions.Thedocumentitselfisalsouneveninitscoverage.
ItssectionontheMinistryofInteriorappearsmostcomprehensive,whilethepartscovering
theMinistryofDefenseandUkrainesintelligenceandcounterintelligenceinstitutionsappear
tobelessdeveloped.
TheslowpaceofUkrainesdefenseandsecuritysectorreformsisobvious.TheUkrainian
NationalGuardthemilitarylawenforcementdualforceundertheMinistryofInterior
leavesabetterimpressionofoverallreadinessthantheactualArmedForcesunderthe
MinistryofDefense.Thestumblingblocksthathavepoppedupalongthewaytoward
defensereformgenerallyincludeissuesofcultureandmentality,whichareslowtochange,as
wellasalackofpoliticalwillandseniorleadershipissuesinthegovernmentandpresidential
administration.
Ukrainesdefenseandsecurityreformprocesshasbeenrathersporadicsincethe20132014
RevolutionofDignity(EuroMaidan).Asearlyasspring2014,theemergentpost-Maidan
partiesthatformedtheEuropeanUkrainecoalitionjointlypledgedtoreformthesecurity
anddefensesector(Rada.gov.ua,November27,2014).Acomprehensivesecuritysector
reviewalsostartedthatspringbutsoonfellbehindschedule.Securityinstitutionsthus
proceededwithreformsontheirown.OnMarch3,2015,anewNationalSecurityStrategy
andMilitaryDoctrineofUkraine(NSDCU)cameintoforce,whichmentionedtheRussian
FederationasamilitarythreatandstatedthatUkrainesgoalistomeettheNorthAtlantic
TreatyOrganizations(NATO)specificmembershipcriteria(Razumkov.org.ua,2016).
ThenewconceptpaperrecentlyapprovedbyPresidentPoroshenko(President.gov.ua,
March16)buildsonlastyearsNSDCUinseveralways.First,itprovidesadetailedThreat
Assessmentssection,inwhichitidentifiesthemainsourcesofsecuritythreatstoUkraine.
Theseinclude:
Russiassubversiveeconomic,societal,militaryandhybridwarfaremeasures.
TemporaryoccupationofCrimeaandselectedareasinDonbas.
DestabilizationofthesituationintheBalticCaspianBlackSearegion.
SabotageandsubversiveoperationsbyRussiaandunspecifiedotherstatestostirup
interethnic,religious,social,separatistandterroristactivities.
MoscowssupportforthebreakawaystateletsinRussian-occupiedareasofDonbas.
MilitarizationofbordersandthepossibilityofRussiasdeploymentoftacticalnuclear
weaponstoCrimea.
UkrainesterritorybeingusedasabattlegroundforanarmedconflictbetweenNATO
andRussia.
Furthermore,theMarch2016documentdefinessecuritychallengesthatcurrentlyexistbelow
thelevelofathreat,butwhichcouldelevateintoamorerobustmilitarythreat.Mostofthese
challengesarealsorelatedtoRussiaandinclude:
ThedestabilizationoftheinternationalsecuritysystemduetotheRussianFederations
aggressiveactionsandtheinsufficienteffectivenessofworldsecuritystructures.
RussiassubversiveinterferenceinUkrainesdomesticaffairsandothersimilarissues.
UnfinishedborderdemarcationprocessesintheBlackSeaandtheSeaofAzovaswell
theunfinisheddelimitationofborderswithRussia,BelarusandMoldova.
Global-levelsecuritychallengessuchasterrorismandtransnationalcrime.
Aimingtoexplaintheneedforreform,theconceptpaperpinpointsseveralunresolved
issuesinthesecurityanddefensesector.Amongsuchissuesareinefficienciesinthe
mechanismofpreventionandneutralizationofcontemporarythreatstoUkrainesnational
security,alegacyofinsufficientresourcesdevotedtothissector,coordinationissues,aswell
asimperfectcrisismanagementanddefenseplanningamongcentralandlocalgovernments.
Importantly,thedocumentattemptstoclarifytherolesandchainsofcommandwithin
Ukrainessecurityanddefensesector.Inparticular,itseekstoaddresstheproblematic
idiosyncrasiesofUkrainesparliamentary-presidentialsysteminwhichtheCabinetof
Ministersalsohasautonomouscommandofportionsofthesecurityforcesmainlythrough
itscontrolovertheMinistryofInteriorthusforminganunwieldythree-headeddragon.
Theconceptpaperproposesovercomingtheseproblemsbyintroducingaunifiedsystemof
planningandresourcemanagement,basedonmodernEuropeanandEuro-Atlanticpractices.
Alsoimportantly,initsStrategicAnalysissection,theconceptpaperspecifiesthefollowing
strategicgoals,tobeaccomplishedinthemediumterm:therestorationofUkraines
territorialintegrityandthecreationofanationalcrisismanagementsystem.
ThereformofUkrainessecurityanddefensesectorhasbeenslow.Buttheever-present
Russianthreat,unrelentinglyhighexpectationsfromdomesticcivilsocietyandinternational
donorcountries,aswellastheneedtoreassuretheUkrainianpublicandmaintaininternal
securityallapplypressureonthegovernmenttokeepmovingforward.Meanwhile,financial
solvencyandthecontinuedsustainabilityofUkrainesreformeffortsremainindoubt.
Specifically,thegovernmenthasincreasedmilitaryexpendituresandlegallystipulatedtospend
nolessthan5percentofGDPonthesecuritysectorasawholeandthenewconceptpaper
callsfordefensespendingtoreach3percent.ButUkrainesGDPactuallyfellby10percent
in2015.Andtheeconomyisnotsettoresumesoundgrowththisyearduetopersistentlylow
globalcommodityprices,thecontinuedoccupationofDonbas,aswellasUkrainesmilitary
andeconomicconflictwithRussia.Fornow,thefiscalsituationisstillmanageable.Butrising
populistpoliticsinUkrainecould,atsomepoint,increasepressureonthegovernmentto
freezemilitaryexpendituresinfavorofsocialspending.
--MaksymBugriy
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Senttime: 04/22/201608:30:01AM
Subject: FW:"Putin'sNATIONALGUARDmaygainrighttoFIREatcrowds,"themoscowtimes.com,4/22
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,April22,20168:29AM
Subject:"Putin'sNATIONALGUARDmaygainrighttoFIREatcrowds,"themoscowtimes.com,4/22
Thenewlycreated[Russian]NationalGuardcouldbegiventhepowertoshootintocrowdsofpeople
underproposalsfromStateDumadeputies.The[Duma]Committeesproposaltoexpandthenew
armyspowerscanbeseenasanexpressionofthedeputiesdesiretoobligethenewheadofthe
NationalGuard,butitssuccessdependsonwhetherinterestedpartiesamongthesilovikiagreeor
not,saidYekaterinaShulman,apoliticalscientist
And:MustreadTimothySNYDER,TRUMPsPUTINFANTASY,
http://www.nybooks.com/daily/2016/04/19/trumpsputinfantasy/?printpage=true
And:U.S.[ObamaAdministration]SPLITdeepensoverPutinsintentionsinSyriacivilwar,
reuters.com,4/22
And:NewTSIMESPOLLWhatRussiansthinkofPutinsnewNationalGuard:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/72797.html?print=1
46.9%ofrespondentsTheGuardwasintroducedwiththegoalofdefendingthepresident
personallyaswellasthoseclosetohimandforthesuppressionofpotentialpopulardisturbances.
And:TheLONGHAULTRUCKERSarestillactivethoughtheyhavebeensplitintotwocompeting
organizations:http://www.ng.ru/politics/20160420/3_platon.html?print=Y
And:AcourtwilldecidethefateofthePLATONroadtaxwhichwentintoeffecton15April:
http://www.rosbalt.ru/piter/2016/04/15/1506835.html
And:DetailedeyewitnessaccountsoftheassassinationofBorisNEMTSOV(twokeywitnesseshave
notbeenfound):http://www.rosbalt.ru/moscow/2016/04/22/1508732.html
And:Twothirdsofthecountrys[Russias]populationareIMPOVERISHED,
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/economy/72760.html?print=1
And:PutinsaysthathehastoTHINKFURTHERaboutwhetherornottoincorporateSouthOssetia
intotheRussianFederation:http://www.rosbalt.ru/exussr/2016/04/20/1507849.html
And:NadezhdaSAVCHENKOwillbeexchangedfortwoRussianGRUofficersbeforetheendofMay:
http://www.newsru.com/russia/22apr2016/savchenko_obmen_print.html

Senttime: 04/19/201608:40:32AM
Subject: FW:"Ukraine'sPOROSHENKOhintsatdealwithRussiatoswappilotSAVCHENKO,"reuters.com,4/19
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,April19,20168:40AM
Subject:"Ukraine'sPOROSHENKOhintsatdealwithRussiatoswappilotSAVCHENKO,"reuters.com,4/19
And:SavchenkoagreestostopHUNGERSTRIKEPoroshenko,unian.info,4/19
And:ElectionsPutinstyle:Russianelectionwatchdog[GOLOS}finedaspartofintimidation
campaign,themoscowtimes.com,4/19
AMoscowcitycourthasfinedelectionmonitoringgroupGolos$18,000forfailingtoidentifyitselfas
aforeignagentonitswebsite.
And:MoscowpreparestoDOUBLEthesizeofRussiaslistofbannedundesirableorganizations,
meduza.io,4/18
Newundesirableorganizations:WorldCongressofUkrainians,theGlobalUkrainianCouncil,the
CrimeanHumanRightsFieldMission,andtheInternationalREPUBLICANInstitute(IRI)
And:DontwakeupBarvikha:theearlyelectionsinaMoscowProvincevillageareatestforthe
[new]chairwomanoftheCentralElectionsCommissionEllaPAMFILOVAfivemembersofNavalnyis
partyarerunningascandidatestobeelectedmunicipaldeputiesinBarvikha,atownof6,000:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/72745.html?print=1
And:TheblackandwhitewordofAleksandrBASTRYKIN[onhisKommersantVlastmanifesto],
http://wwwsvoboda.org/articleprintview/27682162.html
And:TherulesforlivingfromBASTRYKIN:Ifthesilovikiaregrantedtheirwish,thentheentiresocial
system[ofRussia]willbeconstructedinaccordwiththeirCORPORATEINTERESTS,
http://www.rosbalt.ru/federal/2016/;04/18/1507604.html
And:PESKOVreportedthatPutinhasnothadtimetofamiliarizehimselfwithBATRYKINsarticle,
http://www.newsru.com/russia/19apr2016/bastrykin_print.html
And:RussianswantTRUMP:PollshowsRussianswantTrumptowinUSpresidentialelection,
themoscowtimes.com,4/19
ThirtyonepercentofRussiansgaveTrumptheirfirstpreference.His[likely]opponent,Hillary
Clinton,gainedthesupportofamere10percentofRussianvoters.
From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/17/201605:00:45PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Re:ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.FormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduzaMeduza.News,reports,
Subject:
interviews,videosfromRussia
Mikeusesthefirstpersonsingularaninordinatenumberoftimes.
SentfrommyiPhone
OnApr17,2016,at11:53AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
http://meduza.io/en/feature/2016/04/16/but-i-love-russia-and-i-love-russians
ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.
FormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichael
McFaulspeakstoMeduzaMeduza.News,
reports,interviews,videosfromRussia
Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheardroughly
thesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwithAmerican
specialistsonRussia.Theleadingexpertsarethestill-livingSovietologistswho
suddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthistobethecase?
It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,in
academia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyof
Russia,becauseforthefirsttimeeveryoucouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.
Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydataonpublic
opinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesandonebookabout
Russianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweusetostudyAmerican
elections.
AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedin
Russia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,but
notthenewgenerationsomewhereinbetween).
Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthiscrisis[in
thefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences(economics,
politicalscienceI'minthedepartmentofpoliticalsciencehere[atStanford]),there's
atrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.Soifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpolitical
scienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaorChinaorCanadaorFrance
they'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationshipbetweendemocracyand
development,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsofcountries.Atmy
departmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholarsarethestars.
That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknow
individualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesinAmerica,
you'llfindfewerandfewerRussiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon'tteachgraduate
studentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemabout
moregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffofstudentsespeciallyyoung,
PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeepRussianstudiesalive.
Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenan
explosionofthinktanksinWashington.YouprobablynoticedtheminWashington,
right?
Yes,they'reeverywhere.
They'reeverywhere!
ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobsin
thosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,inmy
opinion,isthatthere'snotmuchqualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'maRussia
specialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'snodifferencebetweena
professoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankinWashingtoninthenoisethatis
theexperts.
AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackandforth.
Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopoliticalscience
professors.Thereareveryfewofus(likethreeorfourinthewholecountry).Ithink
that'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.
Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istartedaprogram
on[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsofstudentinterestin
thingsrelatedtoRussiaandEurope.Ithinkit'sincumbentonpeoplelikemetohelp
bringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughta
courseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeenteachingaboutRussiaI'vebeen
teachingaboutdemocratization,USforeignpolicy,democracydevelopment,andrule
oflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoing
togobacktoteachingRussia.
Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.And
they'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.
That'sright.
PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.
Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix
I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedingetting
involvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddleEast.
TherewillalwaysbebusinesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEastwillalways
beamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdobusiness,andit's
notawfulenoughallthetimetoguaranteeafuture,intermsofacareer.
Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,when
therewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontactwithRussia.
PresidentMedvedevcametoStanford.Hespokeherein2010,andwasgreetedby
thousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobe
something.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewerecompaniesinRussia.Lotsof
activity.
Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.Andsonow
theonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,butthose
jobsarenotinteresting,unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,
andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywould
youdoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthestreetandgoworkforGoogle?So
we'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.
ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappensin
theyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernmenthavea
problemtodayfindingqualifiedareaexperts?
I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'mavery
biasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhecampaignand
fiveinthegovernment)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasinthegovernment,that,inthe
seniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendousexpertise.
OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthepresidentat
theWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheStateDepartment,atmy
level,wehadalotofstrongpeople.WhenIworkedattheembassy,myseniorstaff
(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguy
namedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)HeknowsmoreaboutRussia
thananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.
Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelections
comingup.
Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-RussianrelationschangewithanewUS
president?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?
IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit's
ClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsaboutUS-
Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaidsomeveryuniquethingsaboutourrelationshipwith
ouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.
He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...
Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!
Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherofmy
oldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.Ihaveaprettygoodsenseof
herpositionsonRussiainfact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterIintroduced
her,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomethingaboutourlasttrip
together,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,makingeveryonelaugh,What
happensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.
BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodealwith
Putin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou'regoingto
haveadebateaboutUkraine.Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallin
Americanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,
whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,whenthere'sabigeventin
Russia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.Thistime,itwillbeRussian
interventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawhocarealotabout
Russianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:Latvians,Lithuanians,
Poles.
Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?
Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.Butthey
tendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthatsometimesgo
DemocraticandsometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,
Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensofthousandsofPolish-
AmericansinFlorida.
AndtheycareaboutRussia?
AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).Andthereare
lotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,thisis
goingtobeanissuewhereTrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.
Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.
SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwocandidates?
Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.
<YQN2gW0uSLOE2Z_j_5lgSw.jpg>
HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.
Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix
WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoid
theterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountriescan
onlytalkabouteachotherasenemies...
Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.Aboutonce
everytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.One,there's
abiginterestinRussia.I'msometimesspeakingto800peopleinstateslikeMontana.
EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiainMontana.Iwasinnorthern
Floridasixmonthsago.NinehundredpeopleshowedupforatalkonRussia.WhatI
meantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.
Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?
Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.
IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowofthe
newsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyourgeneral
thesisisabsolutelyright.There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbacktotheCold
War.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI'veseenthis.
Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprised
especiallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamongelites,
especiallyliberalelitesinAmerica.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownverystrongviews
onthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soIhavemyown
argument.
ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,as
well,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsayisthat
you'renotallowedinmyclassormylecturestosaythingslike,Russiathinksthisor
Russiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?
I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]
There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuch
morecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeansunderstand.
It'smuchmorenuanced.AndeventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinandhisregime
dealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou
[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.Andthatyou'renot
arrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.
Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.
Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkitis.
AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS?It
seemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.
I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedonpersonality
differencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It'sbecauseit'saview
sharedbyeveryoneintheObamaadministrationandmostAmericanforeignpolicy
elitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthenfomentedthisproxywar[in
theDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesoftheinternationalsystem.
I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbacktodoing
business?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,inmy
opinion.
ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmanymeetings
withPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasacompetitorandan
enemy.That'snotgoingtochange.He'shadthatviewforalongtime.Ifirstmethim
in1991.
1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?
Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.I've
seenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat'snot
goingtochange.
Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.Itwasa
programIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeigncontactsfor
Sobchak.
<jiOXMMBhRd33nHcjH_vuzQ.jpg>
VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.
Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant
DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?
Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpressionon
me.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.Hewasoneof
thefirstguysImetwhoopenlytoldmethattheyworkedforSovietintelligencethis
wasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknow
him[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.
YoutalkedinPortuguese?
Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagreeto
disagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.AndI
thinkthat'swhatObamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshoulddo,but
withnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithink
that'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.IwastheauthoroftheReset.I'mto
blame.
Whyareyoutoblame?
Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis[attempted
theReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritingabookrightnow
abouthowwewererighttohavedonewhatwedid.It'scalledTheReset.
ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseotherthings,
wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'msayingRussians
[thepeople].Tome,that'snotgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthinkit'sgoodfor
Russia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeepbordersopen,
keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...
Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?
Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponsetoRussia's
internationalisolation.
AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernmentdoing
that,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.Knockyourself
out.I'vehearditall.Iusedtobetheambassador,right?
Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,I'm
notgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwasvery
criticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthePutingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.AndIlove
Russians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaid
aboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofightagainst.
ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromthe
world?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?
Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussia
annexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.Ifsanctionsare
isolatingRussiangovernmentofficials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenexttime
theythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithinksanctionshave
beenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.
RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountrywill
resultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonlystate
thatchangestheruleshere,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraqand
America'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUSorits
coalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethisperceptioninRussia?
Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterriblepricefor
invadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,we
spentalotofmoneythere,andweachievedverylittleresults.Andwealienatedlots
ofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?
No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myanswerisyes.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongsdon't
makearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearighttostealyour
bicycletomorrow?That'sastrangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraqwaswrong,then
youshouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealsowrong.Ifyouthink
Krymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhavetosay,Oh,well,theIraq
warthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,Okay,wellwhatabout....
It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?WellwhataboutSyria?Whatabout
thisandwhataboutthat?
Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,or
you'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethose
analogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmyview)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussiaisif
youwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.Ifyou
wereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyourenthusiasmforCrimea
joining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthemajorityof
thepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbeforannexation.
That'sjustlogicallyinconsistent.
I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,butI
meanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014whereMr.
Putinsaidit'sagreatinjusticethatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,andWeneedthis
back.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,Doyouknowthattheethnic
RussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They'rebeingkilled.It'svery
unstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefendthem.Ifsomebodyhad
saidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefactthatit'sall
saidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,and
notaboutCrimea.
WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussian
presidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.Sohow
doestheWestandtheUSdealwiththenextRussianpresident,evenifhe's
democraticandmuchbetter?
Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.
Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.
MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'saDemocrat
orRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizetheannexationof
Crimea.Toholdontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]mightchangewouldbe
misguidedpolicy.
Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswouldlead
to...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbe
embraced.WhatIworryaboutisthatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecause
there'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangeinRussia
atall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.
Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggoodthat
canbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,isthereal
tendencyrightnow.It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeaktoRussians,they
thinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthinkaboutChtodelat's
Rossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwewonderwhatshouldwedoto
weakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworryaboutindifference.Iworry
aboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.
Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajorleaderon
theplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snotthere.
Hedecidednottocome.IworrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkaboutRussiaasnot
beingevenimportanttoengage.AndthatwouldbeatragedyforRussiaandatragedy
fortheUnitedStates.
So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternationalmeetings,
andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeitabundantly
clearthatthiscampaignwaspartofbringingRussiabacktoglobalpolitics.
Whytheparadox?
Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,right?
ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhispolicyin
Syria.Ithinkweshouldacknowledgethatthatheachievedhisobjective.Andhis
objectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.Hisobjectivewasnottodefeat
ISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnot
hisobjective.MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIStheywereagainstother
groupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhisobjective.
2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.
Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix
Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?
IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalot
morethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sasmart
policytosaynowthatAssadneedstobepartofthenegotiations,sowecanhavea
coalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleast
amongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththeRussians,andIknowmany
people)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreatactorinthewar!It's
morelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthisresult,andwehave
todealwiththem.
Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespectedpartner
Putiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcanbeatough
guy.Bulliesgetalotofattention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,butitdoesn'tmean
reintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsaboutMr.Putinasa
resultofSyria.
SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionis
Turkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.
He'sabully,too.SowhyishepartofAmerica'scoalition?
Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehavesimilar
objectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsomevery
particularissues,wehaveradicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.Hejustsaidthatinhis
speechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagreeabouttheroleofthe
KurdsinSyria.
AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.
Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodealwithhim
becauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimforwhatheisdoing.
HejustcametoWashingtonandthepresidentoftheUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeet
withhim.
You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenot
commonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.
RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.
Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix
Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUSand
othercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyof
pragmatism,whereyoucooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrent
interests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughouttheworld.
Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?
Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overourhistory,
fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Ourfirst
remember,goingallthewaybacktothebeginningoftheAmericanRepublicour
mostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.Theyarethereason
whywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthewaragainsttheBritish.
And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthathistory,thentherewasthe
FrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebateinWashingtonaboutwhetherwesupport
ouralliesandourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothetension
goesallthewaybacktothebeginning.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeen
democracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they're
democracies.Alloftheautocracieswithwhichwe'vehadalliancerelationshipshave
alwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmake
transitions.Throughoutourhistory.
Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocratic
stability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverourlong-
termalliesbecauseautocracieshavetheproblemofremaininginpower.SoIranwas
anincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,
oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensinautocracies.Itdoesn't
happenwithdemocraticalliances.
ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.
There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayortheother.
AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]alladministrations(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andall
thewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.
Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-termintereststhatwehaveto
pursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-termvaluesourlong-terminterestin
supportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmart
istheuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.
Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.
From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/17/201605:00:45PM
Re:ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.FormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduzaMeduza.News,reports,
Subject:
Mikeusesthefirstpersonsingularaninordinatenumberoftimes.
SentfrommyiPhone
OnApr17,2016,at11:53AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.
FormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichael
McFaulspeakstoMeduzaMeduza.News,
reports,interviews,videosfromRussia
Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheardroughly
thesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwithAmerican
specialistsonRussia.Theleadingexpertsarethestill-livingSovietologistswho
suddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthistobethecase?
Russia,becauseforthefirsttimeeveryoucouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.
Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydataonpublic
opinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesandonebookabout
Russianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweusetostudyAmerican
elections.
Russia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,but
notthenewgenerationsomewhereinbetween).
Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthiscrisis[in
thefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences(economics,
politicalscienceI'minthedepartmentofpoliticalsciencehere[atStanford]),there's
atrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.Soifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpolitical
scienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaorChinaorCanadaorFrance
they'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationshipbetweendemocracyand
development,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsofcountries.Atmy
individualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesinAmerica,
you'llfindfewerandfewerRussiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon'tteachgraduate
studentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemabout
moregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffofstudentsespeciallyyoung,
PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeepRussianstudiesalive.
explosionofthinktanksinWashington.YouprobablynoticedtheminWashington,
right?
They'reeverywhere!
ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobsin
thosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,inmy
opinion,isthatthere'snotmuchqualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'maRussia
specialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'snodifferencebetweena
professoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankinWashingtoninthenoisethatis
theexperts.
AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackandforth.
Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopoliticalscience
professors.Thereareveryfewofus(likethreeorfourinthewholecountry).Ithink
that'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.
Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istartedaprogram
on[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsofstudentinterestin
thingsrelatedtoRussiaandEurope.Ithinkit'sincumbentonpeoplelikemetohelp
bringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughta
courseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeenteachingaboutRussiaI'vebeen
teachingaboutdemocratization,USforeignpolicy,democracydevelopment,andrule
oflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoing
togobacktoteachingRussia.
That'sright.
I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedingetting
involvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddleEast.
TherewillalwaysbebusinesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEastwillalways
beamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdobusiness,andit's
notawfulenoughallthetimetoguaranteeafuture,intermsofacareer.
Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,when
therewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontactwithRussia.
PresidentMedvedevcametoStanford.Hespokeherein2010,andwasgreetedby
thousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobe
something.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewerecompaniesinRussia.Lotsof
activity.
Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.Andsonow
theonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,butthose
jobsarenotinteresting,unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,
andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywould
youdoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthestreetandgoworkforGoogle?So
we'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.
ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappensin
theyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernmenthavea
problemtodayfindingqualifiedareaexperts?
I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'mavery
biasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhecampaignand
fiveinthegovernment)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasinthegovernment,that,inthe
seniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendousexpertise.
OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthepresidentat
theWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheStateDepartment,atmy
level,wehadalotofstrongpeople.WhenIworkedattheembassy,myseniorstaff
(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguy
namedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)HeknowsmoreaboutRussia
thananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.
comingup.
Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-RussianrelationschangewithanewUS
president?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?
ClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsaboutUS-
Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaidsomeveryuniquethingsaboutourrelationshipwith
ouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.
Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherofmy
oldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.Ihaveaprettygoodsenseof
herpositionsonRussiainfact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterIintroduced
her,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomethingaboutourlasttrip
together,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,makingeveryonelaugh,What
happensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.
BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodealwith
Putin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou'regoingto
haveadebateaboutUkraine.Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallin
Americanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,
whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,whenthere'sabigeventin
Russia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.Thistime,itwillbeRussian
interventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawhocarealotabout
Russianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:Latvians,Lithuanians,
Poles.
Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.Butthey
tendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthatsometimesgo
DemocraticandsometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,
Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensofthousandsofPolish-
AmericansinFlorida.
AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).Andthereare
lotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,thisis
goingtobeanissuewhereTrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.
Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.
<YQN2gW0uSLOE2Z_j_5lgSw.jpg>
theterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountriescan
onlytalkabouteachotherasenemies...
Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.Aboutonce
everytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.One,there's
abiginterestinRussia.I'msometimesspeakingto800peopleinstateslikeMontana.
EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiainMontana.Iwasinnorthern
Floridasixmonthsago.NinehundredpeopleshowedupforatalkonRussia.WhatI
meantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.
IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowofthe
newsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyourgeneral
thesisisabsolutelyright.There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbacktotheCold
War.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI'veseenthis.
especiallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamongelites,
especiallyliberalelitesinAmerica.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownverystrongviews
onthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soIhavemyown
argument.
ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,as
well,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsayisthat
you'renotallowedinmyclassormylecturestosaythingslike,Russiathinksthisor
Russiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?
I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]
morecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeansunderstand.
It'smuchmorenuanced.AndeventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinandhisregime
dealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou
[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.Andthatyou'renot
arrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.
AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS?It
seemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.
I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedonpersonality
differencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It'sbecauseit'saview
sharedbyeveryoneintheObamaadministrationandmostAmericanforeignpolicy
elitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthenfomentedthisproxywar[in
theDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesoftheinternationalsystem.
I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbacktodoing
business?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,inmy
opinion.
ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmanymeetings
withPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasacompetitorandan
enemy.That'snotgoingtochange.He'shadthatviewforalongtime.Ifirstmethim
in1991.
Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.I've
seenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat'snot
goingtochange.
Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.Itwasa
programIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeigncontactsfor
Sobchak.
<jiOXMMBhRd33nHcjH_vuzQ.jpg>
Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpressionon
me.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.Hewasoneof
thefirstguysImetwhoopenlytoldmethattheyworkedforSovietintelligencethis
wasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknow
him[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.
Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagreeto
disagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.AndI
thinkthat'swhatObamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshoulddo,but
withnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithink
that'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.IwastheauthoroftheReset.I'mto
blame.
Whyareyoutoblame?
Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis[attempted
theReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritingabookrightnow
abouthowwewererighttohavedonewhatwedid.It'scalledTheReset.
ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseotherthings,
wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'msayingRussians
[thepeople].Tome,that'snotgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthinkit'sgoodfor
Russia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeepbordersopen,
keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...
Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponsetoRussia's
internationalisolation.
AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernmentdoing
that,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.Knockyourself
out.I'vehearditall.Iusedtobetheambassador,right?
Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,I'm
notgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwasvery
criticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthePutingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.AndIlove
Russians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaid
aboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofightagainst.
isolatingRussiangovernmentofficials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenexttime
theythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithinksanctionshave
beenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.
RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountrywill
resultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonlystate
thatchangestheruleshere,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraqand
America'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUSorits
coalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethisperceptioninRussia?
Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterriblepricefor
invadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,we
spentalotofmoneythere,andweachievedverylittleresults.Andwealienatedlots
ofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?
No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myanswerisyes.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongsdon't
makearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearighttostealyour
bicycletomorrow?That'sastrangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraqwaswrong,then
youshouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealsowrong.Ifyouthink
Krymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhavetosay,Oh,well,theIraq
warthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,Okay,wellwhatabout....
It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?WellwhataboutSyria?Whatabout
analogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmyview)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussiaisif
youwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.Ifyou
wereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyourenthusiasmforCrimea
joining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthemajorityof
thepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbeforannexation.
That'sjustlogicallyinconsistent.
I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,butI
meanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014whereMr.
Putinsaidit'sagreatinjusticethatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,andWeneedthis
back.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,Doyouknowthattheethnic
RussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They'rebeingkilled.It'svery
unstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefendthem.Ifsomebodyhad
saidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefactthatit'sall
saidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,and
notaboutCrimea.
MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'saDemocrat
orRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizetheannexationof
Crimea.Toholdontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]mightchangewouldbe
misguidedpolicy.
Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswouldlead
to...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbe
there'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangeinRussia
atall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.
Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggoodthat
canbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,isthereal
tendencyrightnow.It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeaktoRussians,they
thinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthinkaboutChtodelat's
Rossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwewonderwhatshouldwedoto
weakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworryaboutindifference.Iworry
aboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.
Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajorleaderon
theplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snotthere.
Hedecidednottocome.IworrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkaboutRussiaasnot
beingevenimportanttoengage.AndthatwouldbeatragedyforRussiaandatragedy
fortheUnitedStates.
So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternationalmeetings,
andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeitabundantly
clearthatthiscampaignwaspartofbringingRussiabacktoglobalpolitics.
Whytheparadox?
Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,right?
ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhispolicyin
Syria.Ithinkweshouldacknowledgethatthatheachievedhisobjective.Andhis
objectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.Hisobjectivewasnottodefeat
ISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnot
hisobjective.MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIStheywereagainstother
groupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhisobjective.
morethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sasmart
policytosaynowthatAssadneedstobepartofthenegotiations,sowecanhavea
coalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleast
amongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththeRussians,andIknowmany
people)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreatactorinthewar!It's
morelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthisresult,andwehave
todealwiththem.
Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespectedpartner
Putiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcanbeatough
guy.Bulliesgetalotofattention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,butitdoesn'tmean
reintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsaboutMr.Putinasa
resultofSyria.
Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehavesimilar
objectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsomevery
particularissues,wehaveradicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.Hejustsaidthatinhis
speechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagreeabouttheroleofthe
KurdsinSyria.
Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodealwithhim
becauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimforwhatheisdoing.
HejustcametoWashingtonandthepresidentoftheUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeet
withhim.
Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUSand
othercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyof
interests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughouttheworld.
Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?
Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overourhistory,
fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Ourfirst
remember,goingallthewaybacktothebeginningoftheAmericanRepublicour
mostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.Theyarethereason
whywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthewaragainsttheBritish.
And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthathistory,thentherewasthe
FrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebateinWashingtonaboutwhetherwesupport
ouralliesandourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothetension
goesallthewaybacktothebeginning.
democracies.Alloftheautocracieswithwhichwe'vehadalliancerelationshipshave
alwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmake
stability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverourlong-
termalliesbecauseautocracieshavetheproblemofremaininginpower.SoIranwas
anincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,
oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensinautocracies.Itdoesn't
happenwithdemocraticalliances.
There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayortheother.
AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]alladministrations(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andall
thewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.
Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-termintereststhatwehaveto
pursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-termvaluesourlong-terminterestin
supportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmart
istheuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.
Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/17/201608:53:42AM
To: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.FormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduzaMeduza.News,reports,
Subject:
ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.FormerUS
AmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeaksto
MeduzaMeduza.News,reports,interviews,
videosfromRussia
Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheardroughlythesame
thingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwithAmericanspecialistsonRussia.The
leadingexpertsarethestill-livingSovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneeded
again.Doyoufindthistobethecase?
It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,inacademia,after
theendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyofRussia,becauseforthefirsttime
everyoucouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.
Youcoulddosurveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemany
articlesandonebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweuseto
studyAmericanelections.
AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedinRussia,and
that'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,butnotthenewgeneration
somewhereinbetween).
Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthiscrisis[inthefieldof
Russianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences(economics,politicalscienceI'min
thedepartmentofpoliticalsciencehere[atStanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingone
country.SoifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistson
RussiaorChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationship
betweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsof
countries.AtmydepartmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholarsarethestars.
That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknowindividual
countries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesinAmerica,you'llfindfewerand
fewerRussiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon'tteachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsor
undergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoa
fallingoffofstudentsespeciallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotryto
keepRussianstudiesalive.
Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenanexplosionof
thinktanksinWashington.YouprobablynoticedtheminWashington,right?
They'reeverywhere!
ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobsinthosethink
tanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,inmyopinion,isthatthere'snot
muchqualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'maRussiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,and
writeablog.There'snodifferencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktank
inWashingtoninthenoisethatistheexperts.
AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackandforth.Therearen't
manypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopoliticalscienceprofessors.Thereareveryfew
ofus(likethreeorfourinthewholecountry).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisof
Russia.
Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istartedaprogramon[Russia]
recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsofstudentinterestinthingsrelatedto
RussiaandEurope.Ithinkit'sincumbentonpeoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbackto
theuniversity.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'teven
beenteachingaboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeignpolicy,
democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecided
thatnextyearI'mgoingtogobacktoteachingRussia.
Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.Andthey'rethere
becausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.
That'sright.
I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedingettinginvolved
withRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddleEast.Therewillalwaysbe
businesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEastwillalwaysbeamess.Butwhenitcomes
toRussia,youcan'talwaysdobusiness,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimeto
guaranteeafuture,intermsofacareer.
Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,whentherewere
newopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontactwithRussia.PresidentMedvedev
cametoStanford.Hespokeherein2010,andwasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwith
ourstudents,anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andthere
werecompaniesinRussia.Lotsofactivity.
Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.Andsonowtheonly
careerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,butthosejobsarenot
interesting,unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthe
mostprestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucan
justwalkdownthestreetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeople
interestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.
ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappensintheyears
tocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernmenthaveaproblemtoday
findingqualifiedareaexperts?
I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'maverybiased
personhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhecampaignandfiveinthe
government)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasinthegovernment,that,intheseniorpositions
dealingwithRussia,wehadtremendousexpertise.
OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthepresidentattheWhite
House.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheStateDepartment,atmylevel,wehadalotof
strongpeople.WhenIworkedattheembassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.
Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuania
now.)HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.
Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelectionscomingup.
Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-RussianrelationschangewithanewUSpresident?
IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?
IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit'sClintonversus
Trump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsaboutUS-Russianrelations.Andhe's
saidsomeveryuniquethingsaboutourrelationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreatea
debate.
Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherofmyoldbosses.
Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.IhaveaprettygoodsenseofherpositionsonRussia
infact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterIintroducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,
andthenImentionedsomethingaboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshe
said,makingeveryonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.
BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodealwithPutin.You're
goingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou'regoingtohaveadebateabout
Ukraine.Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it's
usuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresident
Obama,whenthere'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.This
time,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawhocarea
lotaboutRussianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:Latvians,Lithuanians,
Poles.
Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.Buttheytendtobe
concentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthatsometimesgoDemocraticand
sometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswing
state,andtherearetensofthousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.
AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).Andtherearelotsof
Ukrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,thisisgoingtobeanissue
whereTrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluence
ontheelection.
WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoidthe
terminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountriescanonlytalkabout
eachotherasenemies...
Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.Aboutonceeverytwo
weeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.One,there'sabiginterestin
Russia.I'msometimesspeakingto800peopleinstateslikeMontana.Eighthundredpeoplecame
tomytalkaboutRussiainMontana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundred
peopleshowedupforatalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.
IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowofthenews
interestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyourgeneralthesisisabsolutely
right.There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbacktotheColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonits
outcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI'veseenthis.
Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprisedespeciallyat
universitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamongelites,especiallyliberalelitesin
America.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownverystrongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactually
writingabookaboutit,soIhavemyownargument.
ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,aswell,isto
fightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsayisthatyou'renotallowedin
myclassormylecturestosaythingslike,RussiathinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...
I'venevermetMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.
[Laughs.]
There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuchmorecomplex
societythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeansunderstand.It'smuchmorenuanced.
AndeventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinandhisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmore
complex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthat
Meduzaexists.Andthatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.
AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS?Itseemslike
bothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.
I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedonpersonalitydifferences
betweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It'sbecauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryonein
theObamaadministrationandmostAmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryin
Ukraineandthenfomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesofthe
internationalsystem.
I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbacktodoingbusiness?
Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,inmyopinion.
ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmanymeetingswithPutin,
andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasacompetitorandanenemy.That'snotgoing
tochange.He'shadthatviewforalongtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.
Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.I'veseenhimtalk
withObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat'snotgoingtochange.
Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.ItwasaprogramI
wasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeigncontactsforSobchak.
Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpressiononme.Igor
Sechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.HewasoneofthefirstguysImet
whoopenlytoldmethattheyworkedforSovietintelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.
(Thiswasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.Weboth
speakPortuguese.
Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagreetodisagreeon
onesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.AndIthinkthat'swhat
Obamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshoulddo,butwithnoillusionsthat
cooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingto
happen.IwastheauthoroftheReset.I'mtoblame.
Whyareyoutoblame?
Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis[attemptedtheReset],
anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritingabookrightnowabouthowwewere
righttohavedonewhatwedid.It'scalledTheReset.
ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseotherthings,wecannot
isolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'msayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,
that'snotgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthinkit'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehaveto
makesurethatwetrytokeepbordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...
Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?Technically,
ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponsetoRussia'sinternationalisolation.
AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernmentdoingthat,notus.
Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.I
usedtobetheambassador,right?
Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,I'mnotgoing
togotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwasverycriticaloflotsofpolicies
thatthePutingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakeme
outtobeanti-RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwe
havetofightagainst.
ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromtheworld?The
Russiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?
Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussiaannexed
Crimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.IfsanctionsareisolatingRussian
governmentofficials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenexttimetheythinkaboutannexing
territory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithinksanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.
RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountrywillresultin
consequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonlystatethatchangestherules
here,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraqandAmerica'scampaignthere.Butthere
werenosanctionsagainsttheUSoritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethis
perceptioninRussia?
Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterriblepriceforinvading
Iraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,wespentalotofmoney
there,andweachievedverylittleresults.Andwealienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.
Wereformaleconomicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepricefor
that?Myanswerisyes.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongsdon'tmakea
right.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearighttostealyourbicycletomorrow?
That'sastrangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraqwaswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsof
unilateralusesofforcearealsowrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,
thenyouhavetosay,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.They
say,Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?Wellwhat
aboutSyria?Whataboutthisandwhataboutthat?
Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,oryou'refor
Syria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethoseanalogiesarealittlebitfalse,
inmyview)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussiaisifyouwereforChechenindependence.
People[there]wantedindependence.IfyouwereforChechenindependence,thenIcan
understandyourenthusiasmforCrimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,
eventhoughthemajorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbefor
annexation.That'sjustlogicallyinconsistent.
I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,butImeanabout
Crimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreat
injusticethatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecalla
speechwherehesaid,DoyouknowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminated
against?They'rebeingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefend
them.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefact
thatit'sallsaidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,and
notaboutCrimea.
WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussianpresidentwho
wouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.SohowdoestheWestandtheUS
dealwiththenextRussianpresident,evenifhe'sdemocraticandmuchbetter?
MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'saDemocrator
Republicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizetheannexationofCrimea.Tohold
ontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]mightchangewouldbemisguidedpolicy.
Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswouldleadto...ifthere
wereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbeembraced.WhatIworryabout
isthatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecausethere'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnow
thattherecanbepositivechangeinRussiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.
Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggoodthatcanbe
donethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,istherealtendencyrightnow.
It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeaktoRussians,theythinkthatAmericansgetup
everymorningandallwedoisthinkaboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(Whatdowedowith
Russia?)ThatwewonderwhatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.I
worryaboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.
Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajorleaderontheplanetin
Washington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snotthere.Hedecidednottocome.
IworrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkaboutRussiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.And
thatwouldbeatragedyforRussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.
So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternationalmeetings,andon
theotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeitabundantlyclearthatthis
campaignwaspartofbringingRussiabacktoglobalpolitics.Whytheparadox?
Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,right?ButIhave
adifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhispolicyinSyria.Ithinkweshould
acknowledgethatthatheachievedhisobjective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,
andhe'sdonethat.HisobjectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeen
said.It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIS
theywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhis
objective.
IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalotmorethanMr.
Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sasmartpolicytosaynowthat
Assadneedstobepartofthenegotiations,sowecanhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwith
ISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealing
withtheRussians,andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowa
greatactorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthis
result,andwehavetodealwiththem.
Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespectedpartnerPutinis
cominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcanbeatoughguy.Bulliesgetalot
ofattention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,butitdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthink
anybodyhaschangedtheirviewsaboutMr.PutinasaresultofSyria.
SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionisTurkey,which
weknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.He'sabully,too.Sowhyis
hepartofAmerica'scoalition?
Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehavesimilarobjectives.
Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsomeveryparticularissues,wehave
radicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.HejustsaidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashington
abouthowwetotallydisagreeabouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.
Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodealwithhimbecause
ofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimforwhatheisdoing.Hejustcameto
WashingtonandthepresidentoftheUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.
You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenotcommonvalues.
Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.
Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUSandother
countries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyofpragmatism,whereyou
cooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrentinterests,andthepolicyofwe're
spreadingdemocracythroughouttheworld.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?
Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overourhistory,fromthe
verybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Ourfirstremember,goingalltheway
backtothebeginningoftheAmericanRepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,a
monarchyandadictatorship.Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewould
havelostthewaragainsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthat
history,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebateinWashingtonabout
whetherwesupportouralliesandourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothe
tensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeendemocracies.If
youthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they'redemocracies.Allofthe
autocracieswithwhichwe'vehadalliancerelationshipshavealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonly
becomestablewhenthosecountriesmaketransitions.Throughoutourhistory.
Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocraticstability,whichis
tosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverourlong-termalliesbecauseautocracies
havetheproblemofremaininginpower.SoIranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStates
fordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonly
happensinautocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwithdemocraticalliances.
ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.There'sno
solution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayortheother.AndIwouldjustsay
that,[with]alladministrations(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrench
Revolution),thisisatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitisthey
saywehaveshort-termintereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-
termvaluesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat's
smart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartistheuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn't
work.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.
Senttime: 04/17/201608:53:42AM
To: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.FormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduzaMeduza.News,reports,
Subject:
ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.FormerUS
AmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeaksto
MeduzaMeduza.News,reports,interviews,
videosfromRussia
Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheardroughlythesame
thingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwithAmericanspecialistsonRussia.The
leadingexpertsarethestill-livingSovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneeded
It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,inacademia,after
theendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyofRussia,becauseforthefirsttime
everyoucouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.
Youcoulddosurveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemany
articlesandonebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweuseto
studyAmericanelections.
AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedinRussia,and
that'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,butnotthenewgeneration
Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthiscrisis[inthefieldof
Russianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences(economics,politicalscienceI'min
thedepartmentofpoliticalsciencehere[atStanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingone
country.SoifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistson
RussiaorChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationship
betweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsof
countries.AtmydepartmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholarsarethestars.
That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknowindividual
countries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesinAmerica,you'llfindfewerand
fewerRussiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon'tteachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsor
undergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoa
fallingoffofstudentsespeciallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotryto
keepRussianstudiesalive.
Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenanexplosionof
thinktanksinWashington.YouprobablynoticedtheminWashington,right?
They'reeverywhere!
ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobsinthosethink
tanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,inmyopinion,isthatthere'snot
muchqualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'maRussiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,and
writeablog.There'snodifferencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktank
inWashingtoninthenoisethatistheexperts.
AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackandforth.Therearen't
manypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopoliticalscienceprofessors.Thereareveryfew
ofus(likethreeorfourinthewholecountry).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisof
Russia.
Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istartedaprogramon[Russia]
recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsofstudentinterestinthingsrelatedto
RussiaandEurope.Ithinkit'sincumbentonpeoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbackto
theuniversity.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'teven
beenteachingaboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeignpolicy,
democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecided
thatnextyearI'mgoingtogobacktoteachingRussia.
Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.Andthey'rethere
becausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.
That'sright.
I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedingettinginvolved
withRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddleEast.Therewillalwaysbe
businesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEastwillalwaysbeamess.Butwhenitcomes
toRussia,youcan'talwaysdobusiness,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimeto
Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,whentherewere
newopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontactwithRussia.PresidentMedvedev
cametoStanford.Hespokeherein2010,andwasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwith
ourstudents,anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andthere
werecompaniesinRussia.Lotsofactivity.
Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.Andsonowtheonly
careerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,butthosejobsarenot
interesting,unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthe
mostprestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucan
justwalkdownthestreetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeople
interestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.
ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappensintheyears
tocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernmenthaveaproblemtoday
findingqualifiedareaexperts?
I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'maverybiased
personhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhecampaignandfiveinthe
government)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasinthegovernment,that,intheseniorpositions
dealingwithRussia,wehadtremendousexpertise.
OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthepresidentattheWhite
House.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheStateDepartment,atmylevel,wehadalotof
strongpeople.WhenIworkedattheembassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.
Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuania
now.)HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.
Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-RussianrelationschangewithanewUSpresident?
IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?
IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit'sClintonversus
Trump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsaboutUS-Russianrelations.Andhe's
saidsomeveryuniquethingsaboutourrelationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreatea
debate.
Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherofmyoldbosses.
Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.IhaveaprettygoodsenseofherpositionsonRussia
infact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterIintroducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,
andthenImentionedsomethingaboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshe
said,makingeveryonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.
BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodealwithPutin.You're
goingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou'regoingtohaveadebateabout
Ukraine.Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it's
usuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresident
Obama,whenthere'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.This
time,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawhocarea
lotaboutRussianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:Latvians,Lithuanians,
Poles.
Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.Buttheytendtobe
concentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthatsometimesgoDemocraticand
sometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswing
state,andtherearetensofthousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.
AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).Andtherearelotsof
Ukrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,thisisgoingtobeanissue
whereTrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluence
ontheelection.
WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoidthe
terminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountriescanonlytalkabout
eachotherasenemies...
Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.Aboutonceeverytwo
weeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.One,there'sabiginterestin
Russia.I'msometimesspeakingto800peopleinstateslikeMontana.Eighthundredpeoplecame
tomytalkaboutRussiainMontana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundred
peopleshowedupforatalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.
IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowofthenews
interestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyourgeneralthesisisabsolutely
right.There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbacktotheColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonits
outcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI'veseenthis.
Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprisedespeciallyat
universitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamongelites,especiallyliberalelitesin
America.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownverystrongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactually
ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,aswell,isto
fightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsayisthatyou'renotallowedin
myclassormylecturestosaythingslike,RussiathinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...
I'venevermetMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.
[Laughs.]
There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuchmorecomplex
societythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeansunderstand.It'smuchmorenuanced.
AndeventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinandhisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmore
complex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthat
Meduzaexists.Andthatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.
AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS?Itseemslike
bothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.
I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedonpersonalitydifferences
betweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It'sbecauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryonein
theObamaadministrationandmostAmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryin
Ukraineandthenfomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesofthe
I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbacktodoingbusiness?
Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,inmyopinion.
ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmanymeetingswithPutin,
andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasacompetitorandanenemy.That'snotgoing
tochange.He'shadthatviewforalongtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.
Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.I'veseenhimtalk
withObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat'snotgoingtochange.
Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.ItwasaprogramI
wasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeigncontactsforSobchak.
Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpressiononme.Igor
Sechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.HewasoneofthefirstguysImet
whoopenlytoldmethattheyworkedforSovietintelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.
(Thiswasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.Weboth
speakPortuguese.
Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagreetodisagreeon
onesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.AndIthinkthat'swhat
Obamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshoulddo,butwithnoillusionsthat
cooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingto
Whyareyoutoblame?
Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis[attemptedtheReset],
anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritingabookrightnowabouthowwewere
righttohavedonewhatwedid.It'scalledTheReset.
ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseotherthings,wecannot
isolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'msayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,
that'snotgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthinkit'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehaveto
makesurethatwetrytokeepbordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...
Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?Technically,
ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponsetoRussia'sinternationalisolation.
AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernmentdoingthat,notus.
Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.I
usedtobetheambassador,right?
Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,I'mnotgoing
togotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwasverycriticaloflotsofpolicies
thatthePutingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakeme
outtobeanti-RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwe
havetofightagainst.
ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromtheworld?The
Russiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?
Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussiaannexed
Crimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.IfsanctionsareisolatingRussian
governmentofficials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenexttimetheythinkaboutannexing
territory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithinksanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.
RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountrywillresultin
consequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonlystatethatchangestherules
here,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraqandAmerica'scampaignthere.Butthere
werenosanctionsagainsttheUSoritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethis
perceptioninRussia?
Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterriblepriceforinvading
Iraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,wespentalotofmoney
there,andweachievedverylittleresults.Andwealienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.
Wereformaleconomicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepricefor
that?Myanswerisyes.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongsdon'tmakea
right.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearighttostealyourbicycletomorrow?
That'sastrangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraqwaswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsof
unilateralusesofforcearealsowrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,
thenyouhavetosay,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.They
say,Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?Wellwhat
aboutSyria?Whataboutthisandwhataboutthat?
Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,oryou'refor
Syria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethoseanalogiesarealittlebitfalse,
inmyview)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussiaisifyouwereforChechenindependence.
People[there]wantedindependence.IfyouwereforChechenindependence,thenIcan
understandyourenthusiasmforCrimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,
eventhoughthemajorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbefor
I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,butImeanabout
Crimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreat
injusticethatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecalla
speechwherehesaid,DoyouknowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminated
against?They'rebeingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefend
them.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefact
thatit'sallsaidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,and
notaboutCrimea.
WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussianpresidentwho
wouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.SohowdoestheWestandtheUS
dealwiththenextRussianpresident,evenifhe'sdemocraticandmuchbetter?
MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'saDemocrator
Republicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizetheannexationofCrimea.Tohold
ontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]mightchangewouldbemisguidedpolicy.
Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswouldleadto...ifthere
wereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbeembraced.WhatIworryabout
isthatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecausethere'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnow
thattherecanbepositivechangeinRussiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.
Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggoodthatcanbe
donethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,istherealtendencyrightnow.
It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeaktoRussians,theythinkthatAmericansgetup
everymorningandallwedoisthinkaboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(Whatdowedowith
Russia?)ThatwewonderwhatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.I
worryaboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.
Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajorleaderontheplanetin
Washington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snotthere.Hedecidednottocome.
IworrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkaboutRussiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.And
thatwouldbeatragedyforRussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.
So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternationalmeetings,andon
theotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeitabundantlyclearthatthis
campaignwaspartofbringingRussiabacktoglobalpolitics.Whytheparadox?
Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,right?ButIhave
adifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhispolicyinSyria.Ithinkweshould
acknowledgethatthatheachievedhisobjective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,
andhe'sdonethat.HisobjectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeen
said.It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIS
theywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhis
objective.
IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalotmorethanMr.
Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sasmartpolicytosaynowthat
Assadneedstobepartofthenegotiations,sowecanhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwith
ISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealing
withtheRussians,andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowa
greatactorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthis
result,andwehavetodealwiththem.
Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespectedpartnerPutinis
cominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcanbeatoughguy.Bulliesgetalot
ofattention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,butitdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthink
anybodyhaschangedtheirviewsaboutMr.PutinasaresultofSyria.
SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionisTurkey,which
weknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.He'sabully,too.Sowhyis
Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehavesimilarobjectives.
Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsomeveryparticularissues,wehave
radicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.HejustsaidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashington
abouthowwetotallydisagreeabouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.
Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodealwithhimbecause
ofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimforwhatheisdoing.Hejustcameto
WashingtonandthepresidentoftheUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.
You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenotcommonvalues.
Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.
Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUSandother
countries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyofpragmatism,whereyou
cooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrentinterests,andthepolicyofwe're
spreadingdemocracythroughouttheworld.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?
Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overourhistory,fromthe
verybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Ourfirstremember,goingalltheway
backtothebeginningoftheAmericanRepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,a
monarchyandadictatorship.Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewould
havelostthewaragainsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthat
history,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebateinWashingtonabout
whetherwesupportouralliesandourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothe
tensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeendemocracies.If
youthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they'redemocracies.Allofthe
autocracieswithwhichwe'vehadalliancerelationshipshavealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonly
becomestablewhenthosecountriesmaketransitions.Throughoutourhistory.
Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocraticstability,whichis
tosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverourlong-termalliesbecauseautocracies
havetheproblemofremaininginpower.SoIranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStates
fordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonly
happensinautocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwithdemocraticalliances.
ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.There'sno
solution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayortheother.AndIwouldjustsay
that,[with]alladministrations(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrench
Revolution),thisisatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitisthey
saywehaveshort-termintereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-
termvaluesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat's
smart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartistheuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn't
work.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.
Senttime: 04/16/201612:36:52PM
FW:[A'HEALTHY'SATAFTERNOONRUN/CentralParkTime]UCMC:UkrainianArmedForcesincurrednolossesyesterdayKHRG:Ukrainian
Subject:
hostagefaces9yearsentenceinRussiaforwantofacrimePLFM:RussiaMoreDangerousThanISISOhLook...Putsta'is...
Sent:Saturday,April16,201610:19AM
Subject:Fwd:[A'HEALTHY'SATAFTERNOONRUN/CentralParkTime]UCMC:UkrainianArmedForcesincurrednolossesyesterday
KHRG:Ukrainianhostagefaces9yearsentenceinRussiaforwantofacrimePLFM:RussiaMoreDangerousThanISISOh
Look...Putsta'is...
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,Apr16,2016at1:18PM
Subject:[A'HEALTHY'SATAFTERNOONRUN/CentralParkTime]UCMC:UkrainianArmedForcesincurrednolosses
yesterdayKHRG:Ukrainianhostagefaces9yearsentenceinRussiaforwantofacrimePLFM:RussiaMoreDangerousThan
ISISOhLook...Putsta'isBlamingGoldmanSachsTooPutin'sGeopoliticalTrolling&theUSSCook(interestingread,including
takeonUA)
From:UkraineCrisisMediaCenter<press@uacrisis.org>
Date:Sat,Apr16,2016at8:32AM
Subject:AndriyLysenko:UkrainianArmedForcesincurnolossesyesterday
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
AndriyLysenko:UkrainianArmedForcesincurnolossesyesterday
Kyiv,April16,2016.Russia-backedmilitantgroupsshelledATOtroopspositions61timesyesterday.UkrainianArmed
Forcesincurrednolosses.MilitantsshelledUkrainianpositionsintheLuhansksectornearStanytsiaLuhanska,and
militantsarmoredpersonnelcarrierattackedATOtroopsbetweenTriokhizbenkaandKrymske.Anumberofmilitants
provocationsinvolvinguseofsmallarmswasregisterednearShchastia,KrymskevillageandPopasna,informed
ColonelAndriyLysenko,spokesmanofPresidentialAdministrationonATO-relatedissuesatapressbriefingatUkraine
CrisisMediaCenter.
Highresolutionfilecanbefoundhere
MilitantsactivityintheDonetskwasdownbymorethanhalf.ATOtroopsrecorded33attacks.Avdiivkaremainsthearea
withthehighestlevelofactivity,whereanumberofmortarattackstookplace.ThearmisticeheldinZaitseve.Nevertheless,
militantsarmoredpersonnelcarrierwasshellingUkrainianpositionsforhalfanhournorthwestofthetemporarily
occupiedHorlivka,nearLeninskesettlement.MilitantsinstigatedanumberofprovocationsnearVerkhniotoretskeandthe
Donetskairport.TheenemycontinuesshellingUkrainianpositionsnearKrasnohorivkaandMariinkaintheMariupolsector
withmortarfire.Militantsused82-mmmortarlaunchersinthevicinityofTaramchukandBerezovevillages
inMariinskyidistrictandlaunchedone120-mmbombateachpositionnearStarohnativkaandShyrokyne.Intotal,militants
violatedthearmistice20timesinthissector,saidthespokesman.TwoUkrainiantroopswerewoundedyesterdayin
combat.
Accordingtothespokesman,officersofSecurityServiceofUkrainedivulgedaservicewomaninLvivwhowaspropagating
separatistideasinRussiansocialmedia.ShehadaccesstosecretinformationandsimultaneouslyspreadRussian
propagandainthenetworks,calledupondismantlementofthestatehoodandpropagatedevasionfrommilitarydraft.
Moreover,UkrainiantroopsceasedillegalammunitionatacheckpointnearSloviansk,33cartridgesandtwogrenades,
carriedbyademobilizedservicemanoftheArmedForcesofUkraine.ItshouldbepointedoutthatIllegalhandlingof
weapons,ammunitionorexplosivesisanarticleoftheCriminalCodeofUkraineenvisagingpunishmentintheformof
imprisonmentofupo5years,summarizedCol.Lysenko.
ThecenterislocatedinTheUkrainianHouse(2Khreshchatykstreet),2ndfloor.Hotline + 3 8 0 5 0 1 5 7 8 1 5 9, + 3 8 0 9 3 5 8 4 6 6 2 4, e -
mailpress@uacrisis.org.Formoreinformationpleasevisituacrisis.org,andfollowusonTwitter,Facebook,YouTube.
UkraineCrisisMediaCenterisprovidingmediasupportona24/7basistoallthosecoveringeventsinUkraineandrunsadailyscheduleoflivepress
briefingsandmoderateddiscussionstotoprovidetheinternationalcommunitywithaccurateandup-to-dateinformationabouteventsinUkraineand
threatstonationalsecurity,particularlyinthemilitary,political,economic,energyandhumanitarianspheres.
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From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Subject:Ukrainianhostagefaces9yearsentenceinRussiaforwantofacrime::khpg.org
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1460767251
Ukrainianhostagefaces9yearsentenceinRussiaforwantofacrime
16.04.16|HalyaCoynash
printversion
ARussiancourtislikelyonApril20tosentenceUkrainianSerhiyLytvynovtoanythinguptothe9yearsinamaximum
securityprisondemandedbytheprosecutor.ForbeingUkrainian,effectively,sincehecommittednocrime.Thepoliticsin
thiscase,andthereislittleelse,liesinLytvynovsnationalityandRussiasundeclaredwaragainstUkraine.Russias
InvestigativeCommitteehadwantedahigh-profilewarcrimestrialbutwasdefeatedbyanhonestlawyerandthefacts.
Theycameupwithanequallysloppyandabsurdrobberycharge,anditisthattrialforwhichaverdictisawaited..
Lytvynovisa33-year-oldcowherdfromavillageintheLuhanskoblast.InAugust2014,hehadaninflamedtooththatbadly
neededtreatment,andtheclinicshewouldotherwisehavegonetoinUkrainewereunderKremlin-backedmilitantcontrol.
HewasadvisedtotryahospitalacrosstheborderintheRostovregioninRussia,wherehewasplacedinaRussianward
withmilitantsfightinginDonbas.Hewasseizedfromthereandsavagelytortured,untilhesignedconfessionstomultiple
warcrimeswhichhewassupposedtohavecommittedasamemberoftheDniprovolunteerbattalion.
JudgingbytheInvestigativeCommitteesannouncementofthechargesagainstLytvynovonOct12014,histrialwas
supposedtobeusedasproofofUkrainesgenocideagainsttheRussian-speakingpopulationinDonbas.
Lytvynovwasaccusedofhavingpersonallycarriedoutmurdersofcivilians,includingwomenandchildren.The
InvestigativeCommitteehadevendemonstratedavideowithLytvynovconfessing.Itisworthalsonotingthetestimony
givenincourtrecently,andhislawyerscommentsaboutLytvynov,whoisnotjustuneducated,butclearlyhaslearning
difficulties.Lytvynovsayshimselfthathewassimplyhandedpiecesofpapertosign.
LytvynovwasimmenselyfortunatethatViktorParshutkinagreedtorepresenthim.Parshutkinsucceededinprovingthat
theimpugnedwarcrimeshadnevertakenplaceandcouldnothavesinceneithertheallegedvictims,northeiraddresses,
actuallyexisted.
TheUkrainianhadalreadybeeninRussiandetentionforoverayearbythatstageandtheoriginalchargeshadbeenmuch
trumpetedinthepro-Kremlinmedia,sotheinvestigatorsdecidedtofindsomethingelsetopinonLytvynov.
ARussiannational,AlexanderLysenko,suddenlyappearedayearaftertheallegedeventsandclaimedthatLytvynov,
togetherwithtwounidentifiedindividuals,hadrobbedhimatgunpoint.
Accordingtothisnewstory,Lytvynovissupposedtohaveburstintoahouse,armedwithamachinegun,beatenup
Lysenkoandstolentwocars.
Theproblemsarelegion:
ThereisnorecordofLysenkohavingenteredUkraineviaapartoftheborderstillunderUkrainiancontrol.
NoristhereanythingtoindicatethatLysenkoownedthetwocars,infact,quitethecontrary.InformationfromtheUkrainian
ProsecutorGeneralsOffice,theTrafficPoliceandborderguardserviceindicatedthattheOpelFronterahadbelongedto
somebodyelseuntil1997whenitwastakenofftheregister.Itsregistrationnumber,however,washeldbyaZhiguliwhich
thepolicearesearchingfor.Theothercarwasregisteredunderadifferentnamealtogether(moredetailshere).
Parshutkintriedtogetthesechargesclassifiedaswarcrimessothattheycouldapplyfortrialbyjury.Jurymembersare
farmorelikelytobalkatpassinganobviouslyunjustverdict.Theapplicationwasunfortunatelyrejected.
Lytvynovisnopoliticalprisonerinanynormalsenseofthewordandwouldscarcelybeabletoexplainwhatishappeningin
thecountry.Hecan,however,andhasvividlydescribedthetorturehewassubjectedto.Heisequallyadamantthathe
hadneverseteyesonLysenkoorsetfootintheplacewherethisrobberyisallegedtohavetakenplace.
TherobberyofcarswhichdidnotbelongtoLysenkoandwhichheonlydecidedtoreportoverayearlater,afterthe
previouschargesagainstLysenkohadbeenproventobepurefiction.
seealso:
ZerocredibilitynoproblemforRussiaintrialoftorturedUkrainianhostage
WithalleyesonSavchenko,UkrainianhostageLytvynovsfarcicaltrialforgotten
NewchargesagainstUkrainianhostageassurrealasthoseRussiaforcedtoretract
UkrainianhostagedemandsRussiatryhimforwarcrimes
RussiaforcedtowithdrawinsanechargesagainstUkrainianhostage
FirstvictoryforUkraineagainstRussiastorture-basedjustice
MoscowsKafkaesqueUkrainianSpyCases
ArrestaUkrainianRussiasInvestigativeCommitteewilldotherest
MoscowshoutsabductionyetholdsUkrainianhostagesincommunicado
Russiaholds72-year-oldUkrainianhostageonabsurdspyingcharges
From:hunter@
Subject:RussiaismoredangerousthanIsis,saysPolishforeignminister
Russia is more dangerous than Isis, says Polish foreign minister

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/15/russia-more-dangerous-isis-polish-foreign-minister-witold-waszczykowski
Witold Waszczykowski describes Russian activity as an existential threat to Europe during a debate on
the future of Nato
The Polish foreign minister, Witold Waszczykowski, also called for Nato to approve the deployment of troops on the
alliances eastern border. Photograph: Jakub Kamiski/EPA
Russia is more dangerous than Islamic State, Polands foreign minister Witold Waszczykowski, told reporters
during a visit to Slovakia.
By all evidence, Russias activity is a sort of existential threat because this activity can destroy countries, said
Waszczykowski, who was speaking in a debate on the future of Nato at the annual Globsec security forum in
Bratislava on Friday.
We also have non-existential threats like terrorism, like the great waves of migrants, he added, according to
Polands PAP news agency.
He described Isis as a very serious threat but said it is not an existential threat for Europe.
Waszczykowski also called for Nato to approve the deployment of troops on the alliances eastern border at its
July summit due to be held in Warsaw.
This will be a symbol of the determination to defend the eastern flank, he said. We can discuss the scale of
this deployment.
The Czech defence minister, Martin Stropnick, said at the conference that strengthening the Natos collective
defence capability would be the main point on the agenda at the summer summit, while warning that Russia
should not be isolated.
He added that Russia was actively testing the defensive capabilities of Nato in the Baltic region where a
number of countries have come under pressure, the Czech news agency CTK reported.
Russia will use rare talks with Nato next week to protest the alliances absolutely unjustified military buildup
in the Baltic states, Moscows Belgian ambassador said on Friday, adding that the alliance was using the Ukraine
crisis as a pretext.
Russian and Nato ambassadors will meet in Brussels on 20 April for their first formal talks in nearly two years
to discuss security issues, including the crisis in Ukraine, where Moscow is accused of backing pro-Russia
rebels against the pro-western government in Kiev.
Subject:PanamaPapers:PutinsorryforSueddeutscheZeitungerror-BBCNews[ED:Oh,look.....Putsta'isinto
pickingonGoldmanSachstoo]
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36053524
PanamaPapers:PutinsorryforSueddeutsche
Zeitungerror
APThe
KremlinsaysVladimirPutinwasmisinformedbyaidesaboutthenewspaper'sownership
VladimirPutinhasapologisedforerroneouslyclaimingthatGermannewspaperSueddeutscheZeitungwas
ownedbytheUSbankGoldmanSachs.
TheRussianpresidentmadetheremarkinatelevisedphone-inonThursday.
Itconcernedwhowasresponsibleforthepublicationoftheso-calledPanamaPapers,whichwereleakedto
SueddeutscheZeitungandrevealedmassiveinternationaltaxevasion.
InanapologyissuedbytheKremlin,MrPutinsaidhewasmisinformedbyaides.
"Itismoretheerrorofthosewhopreparedthebriefingdocuments,myerror,"DmitryPeskov,aKremlinspokesman,
toldreporters.
"Therewasinformationtherethathadnotbeencheckedandrecheckedagainandwegaveittothepresident.Wehave
apologised[tothebank]andwewillalsoapologisetothepublication."
ThePanamaPapers,whichcontainedthenamesofpeopleallegedlyinvolvedintaxevasionschemes,revealeda
numberofoffshorecompaniesownedbycloseassociatesofMrPutin.
MrPutinhasdenied"anyelementofcorruption"overtheschemes,sayinghisopponentsaretryingtodestabilise
Russia.
SueddeutscheZeitungsharedthedocumentswithalargegroupofnewspapersandpublishers,includingtheBBC.
From:VRT
Subject:Putin'sgeopoliticaltrolling:thestrategybehindRussianjetsbuzzingaUSdestroyer-----Ukraineshowsthelimitsofthis
strategy
Putin'sgeopoliticaltrolling:the
strategybehindRussianjets
buzzingaUSdestroyer
UpdatedbyZackBeauchamponApril14,2016,3:10p.m.ET@zackbeauchampzack@vox.com
KeyQuote:
Ukraineshowsthelimitsofthisstrategy
WhenPutin'strolltheoryhasbeentestedinpractice,however,ithasbeenleftwanting.Ukraineisbyfarthe
clearestexample.
Thetwohighest-profileRussianforeignpolicymovesoflate,theinterventionsinUkraineandSyria,bothtestify
tothelimitsofPutin'strolldoctrinealbeitindifferentways.
InUkraine,PutinhassucceededinseizingeffectivecontrolofCrimea,aswellascreatinga"frozenconflict"in
theDonbasregionofeasternUkraine.Butit'snotactuallyclearwhythisisgoodforRussia.RetakingCrimea
hasbeenalongtimeideologicalgoalofRussiannationalists,andcontrollingtheterritorytheoreticallyhelps
securethevaluablenavalbaseinthecityofSevastopol.Butonthewhole,thesearen'texactlymassivestrategic
gains.
AndtheeasternUkraineconflicthasturnedintoanoutrightdebacle.Hundreds,ifnotthousands,ofRussian
soldiershavediedtheRussiangovernmentspends$40millionamonthonpensionsaloneforitsproxy
governmentinDonbas.
MaybethiswouldbeworthitifPutin'sintimidationcampaignhadconvincedWesterncountriestorolloverand
cedeUkrainetohim.Buttheoppositeisthecase.TheUSanditsEuropeanalliesrespondedwithpunishing
sanctions,deprivingRussianbusinessesofmuch-neededforeigncapital.AccordingtoInternationalMonetary
Fundestimates,thesanctionslikelyknockedoffsomewherebetween1and1.5percentofRussianGDPafter
theywereimplementedaprettyheftysum.
Andmorebroadly,neitherPutin'strollingexercisesnorhisUkraineinterventionhasweakenedWesternmilitary
resolve.AnewreportfromaconsortiumofEuropeanthinktanksfoundthatdefensespendingonthecontinent
willjump8.3percentin2016abreakwithaconsistentpostColdWarpatternofdecliningEuropeandefense
spending.Thethinktankssee"RussiasaggressivepostureepitomizedbyMoscowsillegalannexationofCrimea
andthecrisisinUkraine"asadirectcauseofthisspendinghike.
Thepoint,then,isthatPutin'sbrinkmanshiphasnotyieldedapliantEurope,onewillingtobendtoRussia's
interestsinUkraineandelsewhere.Inactuality,ithasledtosignificanteconomicpain,arenewedanti-Russian
allianceintheWest,andlittleinthewayofmeaningfulstrategicgains.
OnMondayandTuesday,Russianplanesandhelicoptersflewvery,verycloseto
theUSSDonaldCole,adestroyeroperatingintheBalticSea.
Howclose?Thisclose:
(EUCOM)
TheRussianplaneswereflyingattheUSshipinthesamewaytheywouldbeifthey
wereconductinganattackrun.Thankfully,theywereunarmedbuttheact
wasneedlessly,dangerouslyprovocative.What'smore,Russiahasbeendoing
thisforyears,evenbuzzingtheDonaldCookroughly12timestwoyearsago,when
itwasintheBlackSea.
Whydoesthiskeephappening?It'shardtoknowforsure,ofcourse,without
listeninginonRussianorders(whichunfortunatelyIhavesofarbeenunabletodo).
ButgivenwhatweknowaboutRussianforeignpolicyinthePutinera,these
overflightsmakealotofsense.
Putin,yousee,haselevatedaggressivegeopoliticaltrollingtothelevelofdoctrine.
Needlessprovocationsaimedatsignaling"strength"havebecomeahallmarkof
Russia'sforeignpolicyinthePutinyears.Theseactionsarebuzzyandgeneratealot
ofbreathlesscoverageintheAmericanpress,buttheyoftenofferlittleinthewayof
actualstrategicvalueforRussiaandindeedoftenriskscaryescalation.
Inotherwords,theUSSDonaldCookoverflightsaren'tanaberration.They'rea
perfectmetaphorformuchofRussianforeignpolicyunderPutin:loud,buzzy,
dangerous,andnotactuallyallthatgreatformostRussians.
Putin'strollyforeignpolicy
(SashaMordovets/GettyImages)
ExamplesofdangerousRussianprovocationsabound.InSeptember2014,Russian
soldiersabductedanEstonianintelligenceofficer.EstoniaisaNATOmemberthe
abductionhappenedjusttwodaysafterPresidentObamagaveaspeechvowingto
defendEstoniaandotherBalticNATOstatesfromaggression.
Thatsameyear,RussianwarshipsviolatedLatvianwaters(anotherBalticNATO
member)40times.Russiahasalsomadeahabitofflyingplanesnearoroverthe
Balticswiththeirtranspondersswitchedoffmakingithardtoascertainwhether
theirintentionswerepeaceful.Someofthoseplaneswerenuclear-capablestrategic
bombers.
We'veseensimilarbehaviorintheMiddleEast.DuringRussia'sinterventionin
Syria,RussianplanesrepeatedlyviolatedTurkishairspace.Thiscontinuedeven
afterTurkeyshotdownaRussianplaneinNovember2015.Turkeyisyou
guesseditaNATOmember.
Thepointisthatthesesortsoflow-levelmilitaryprovocationshavebecomeroutine
partsofRussianforeignpolicyit'sjustsomethingPutindoes.
Why?Putinappearstoseetheseprovocationsasawaytointimidatehis
adversariesintheWestnamely,theUSandNATO.Thebasictheoryisthatifhe
signalsawillingnesstoriskconflict,theWestwillbackdown.Goingtowarwith
Russiawouldbeobjectivelyinsane,sotheideaisthatifPutinseemscrazyand
eagertopickafight,hisadversarieswon'tbewillingtoriskitover,say,Ukraineor
SyriaissuesthatareimportantbutcertainlynotworthgoingtowarwithRussia
over.
"Hiscalculationappearstobethatthescarierheseems,themorepoliticaltraction
hehas,"MarkGaleotti,aprofessoratNYUwhostudiesRussia,wroteinaFebruary
pieceforVox."WhattheKremlindoeshaveisthewilltotakerisks,ignoretherules,
andhopethattheothersideismoresensible,morecautious,morewillingtomake
concessionsthanitistocallRussia'sbluff."
AccordingtoGaleotti,thisisanattempttodoasmuchasRussiacanwithwhatlittle
ithas.TheRussianmilitaryisweak,despiteasignificantPutin-directedinitiativeto
repairit.Itspoliticalinstitutionsaredeeplycorrupt.Itstroubledeconomyisoil-
dependentandhurtlingtowarddisaster.
Russiahasveryfewtoolstoadvanceitsinterests,inotherwordssoPutinhas
decidedthatflashytrollingisawaytomakethemostofit.
(VadimMassalimov/KommersantviaGettyImages)Russian-backedUkrainianseparatistsonatank.
WhenPutin'strolltheoryhasbeentestedinpractice,however,ithasbeenleft
wanting.Ukraineisbyfartheclearestexample.
Thetwohighest-profileRussianforeignpolicymovesoflate,theinterventionsin
UkraineandSyria,bothtestifytothelimitsofPutin'strolldoctrinealbeitindifferent
ways.
InUkraine,PutinhassucceededinseizingeffectivecontrolofCrimea,aswellas
creatinga"frozenconflict"intheDonbasregionofeasternUkraine.Butit'snot
actuallyclearwhythisisgoodforRussia.RetakingCrimeahasbeenalongtime
ideologicalgoalofRussiannationalists,andcontrollingtheterritorytheoretically
helpssecurethevaluablenavalbaseinthecityofSevastopol.Butonthewhole,
thesearen'texactlymassivestrategicgains.
AndtheeasternUkraineconflicthasturnedintoanoutrightdebacle.Hundreds,ifnot
thousands,ofRussiansoldiershavediedtheRussiangovernmentspends$40
millionamonthonpensionsaloneforitsproxygovernmentinDonbas.
MaybethiswouldbeworthitifPutin'sintimidationcampaignhadconvincedWestern
countriestorolloverandcedeUkrainetohim.Buttheoppositeisthecase.TheUS
anditsEuropeanalliesrespondedwithpunishingsanctions,deprivingRussian
businessesofmuch-neededforeigncapital.AccordingtoInternationalMonetary
Fundestimates,thesanctionslikelyknockedoffsomewherebetween1and1.5
percentofRussianGDPaftertheywereimplementedaprettyheftysum.
Andmorebroadly,neitherPutin'strollingexercisesnorhisUkraineinterventionhas
weakenedWesternmilitaryresolve.AnewreportfromaconsortiumofEuropean
thinktanksfoundthatdefensespendingonthecontinentwilljump8.3percentin
2016abreakwithaconsistentpostColdWarpatternofdecliningEuropean
defensespending.Thethinktankssee"Russiasaggressivepostureepitomizedby
MoscowsillegalannexationofCrimeaandthecrisisinUkraine"asadirectcauseof
thisspendinghike.
Thepoint,then,isthatPutin'sbrinkmanshiphasnotyieldedapliantEurope,one
willingtobendtoRussia'sinterestsinUkraineandelsewhere.Inactuality,ithasled
tosignificanteconomicpain,arenewedanti-RussianallianceintheWest,andlittle
inthewayofmeaningfulstrategicgains.
Russia'sSyriainterventionisanexception
(RussiaWorks.Ru)TanksfiringinJobar,atowninSyria,filmedbyaRussiandrone.
InSyria,Russialaunchedanintensecampaignthatlastedonlysixmonthsbefore
Putinannouncedadrawdown.Thetacticalgoaloftheescalationwasclear:
reversingthebattlefieldmomentumagainstRussia'sallyBasharal-Assad.Thisisthe
oppositeoftheUkraineintervention,anopen-endedcommitmentwithoutanobvious
tacticalendpoint.
Indeed,theSyriainterventionrepresentsanexceptiontoPutin'strollingpolicyin
general.Andthat'swhy,inaverylimitedsense,itkindofworked.
RussianbombingwasabsolutelyvitaltotheAssadregime'srecentgainsnear
Aleppo,Syria'slargestcity,nearLatakiainwesternSyria,andinthesouthernDaraa
province.Thesegainshaveflippedthebattlefieldmomentum,ensuringAssadwon't
collapseinthenearterm(asseemedplausiblejustbeforetheRussianintervention).
SoRussiaproppedupaclientregimethattheWesthatesandtheUSjustsat
thereandwatched.SeemslikeasuccessforPutin'strollingstrategy,no?
Notsofast.IfyoulookcloselyatRussia'sstrategyinSyria,itbecomesclearthatit's
insomewaysanabandonmentofthetrollingstrategyPutinhasusedagainstthe
West.
Firstoff,whilethemilitarygainsRussiasecuredforAssadwereimpressive,they
haven'tactuallysavedhim.
"TheRussianinterventiondoesnotbyitselfensureAssadslong-termfuture,"the
LevantineGroup,aMiddleEastintelligencefirmthatfocusesonSyria,writesina
recentreport.Assadisstilltooweaktowinthewaronhisown,forreasonsthe
reportexplains:
Theoverrelianceonauxiliaryandlargelyforeignforceshasdeepened,andwhile
theseforceshaveprovenefficientontheoffensive,theywontbesufficienttofill
thegapsinAssadsdefense:Theregimesgainsactuallyaccentuatethe
persistentmanpowerissue,asAssadneedstodefendawiderterritory.
FortheRussianstrategytoultimatelysucceed,itwillneedtosecure
apoliticalresolution,notjustamilitaryonethatis,anegotiatedendtotheconflict
inSyriathatsecuresRussia'sinterests,suchasmaintainingitsnavalportinthe
SyriancityofTartus.Andthatwon'thappenwithoutbeingabletoreachsomekindof
negotiatedsettlementwiththeUnitedStatesandotherregionalpowers.
Russiarecognizesthis.That'swhyRussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovworked
withSecretaryofStateJohnKerrytobrokeraceasefireafterward,whichhasat
leastsomewhatsucceededinreducingviolence.Thiswasn'taccomplishedby
intimidatingtheUnitedStatesintocapitulating,butratherbygoodold-fashioned
diplomacy,wherebothsidescometoagreeabletermsbasedonmutualinterests.
Putin'sgoalinSyria,it'snowprettyclear,wastostrengthenRussia'shandin
negotiationsbothwiththeWest,bystrengtheningthemilitarypositionofRussia's
ally,andwithAssadhimself,byshowingthathedependedonRussia'ssupportfor
survivalandtherebycreatingtheleveragetoeventuallyforcehimtoacceptapeace
dealonRussianterms.Inotherwords,thegoalistosecureRussianinterestsinany
peacedeal,nottointimidatetheWestintoacceptinganAssadvictory.
Hencewhy,inDecember,RussiavotedforaUNSecurityCouncilresolutioncalling
foratransitionalgovernmentinSyriatoreplacethecurrentregimesomething
RussiaobviouslywouldnothavedoneifthegoalweretokeepAssadinpower.
Thestrategyhere,then,istheoppositeoftheintimidationstrategyPutinispursuing
inEurope.ThetwosharesomecommonobjectivesgettingtheWesttorecognize
Russiaasaglobalpower,forexamplebutthisstrategyinvolvesleveragingfora
compromiseratherthanintimidatingtheWestintoacceptingRussiandemands.The
endsmaybesomewhatsimilar,butthemeansareradicallydifferent.
AndthatispreciselywhytheinterventioninSyriaworked.
WhyPutindoesthis:It'sgoodforhim
(AlexeyDruzhinin/RiaNovosti/AFP/GettyImages)
SoifPutin'sattempttouseprovocationstointimidatetheWesthasn'tbeenallthat
successful,andcomeswithrealcosts,whyishedoingit?
Therearemanyanswers,includingPutin'sownideologicalviewofRussiaandits
placeintheworld.Butakeypartofthestoryisself-interest:Loudprovocationswith
theWesthelpPutinathome.
Since2012,Putinhasfacedaseriouslegitimacyproblem.Hisreelectionbidthat
yearwasmarredbymassprotestsandangeratanallegedlyriggedgame,andthe
subsequentslowdownoftheRussianeconomyhasmadeitseemlikehehaslittleto
offerthepeople.
Thesolution,asmycolleagueMaxFisherexplains,isnationalismbuytheloyalty
oftheRussianpeoplebyassertingitspowerontheworldstage:
Putin'sanswerhasbeentoassertRussianpowerbeyonditsactualstrength
and,intheprocess,torecasthimselfasanationalheroguardingagainstforeign
enemies.Withoutaworld-power-classmilitaryoreconomyathisdisposal,heis
insteadwieldingconfusionanduncertaintywhichSovietleadersrightly
avoidedasexistentialdangersasweaponsagainsttheWest.
TrollingtheWestisacorepartofthat.SendingshipsintoLatvianwaters,abducting
anEstonianintelligenceofficer,andaboveallinterveninginUkraineareall
waysofassertingRussia'sgeopoliticaldominance,thusshowingtheRussianpeople
thattheircountryandtheirleaderisstrong.Indeed,Putin'spopularityinRussia
hasshotupsincetheUkraineintervention.(Interestingly,roughly69percentof
RussiansopposedtheSyriainterventionattheoutset.)
Now,thisisn'tallaboutpopularity:Itseemslikely,basedonwhatweknowabout
Putin,thathealsogenuinelybelievesRussiaisagreatpowerthatisowedrespect
fromWesterncountries.
Butit'stoughtomakesenseoftheflashy,high-profile,andultimately
ineffectivewayshe'schosentogoaboutassertingRussianinterestswithoutseeing
thematleastpartlythroughthelensofdomesticRussianpolitics.
Onceyouunderstandthis,then,Russia'strollingactivitiesincludingbuzzing
theUSSDonaldColebecomemorecomprehensible.They'renotactsof
dominance,showinghowmuchtougherPutinisthanObama.They'renotactsofa
madmanintentonstartingawar.
They'reactsofaninsecuredictator,equippedwithaweakmilitary,doingwhathecan
toasserthisplaceintheworld.They'reactsofweakness.
Senttime: 04/16/201612:36:52PM
FW:[A'HEALTHY'SATAFTERNOONRUN/CentralParkTime]UCMC:UkrainianArmedForcesincurrednolossesyesterdayKHRG:Ukrainian
Subject:
hostagefaces9yearsentenceinRussiaforwantofacrimePLFM:RussiaMoreDangerousThanISISOhLook...Putsta'is...
Sent:Saturday,April16,201610:19AM
Subject:Fwd:[A'HEALTHY'SATAFTERNOONRUN/CentralParkTime]UCMC:UkrainianArmedForcesincurrednolossesyesterday
KHRG:Ukrainianhostagefaces9yearsentenceinRussiaforwantofacrimePLFM:RussiaMoreDangerousThanISISOh
Look...Putsta'is...
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Subject:[A'HEALTHY'SATAFTERNOONRUN/CentralParkTime]UCMC:UkrainianArmedForcesincurrednolosses
yesterdayKHRG:Ukrainianhostagefaces9yearsentenceinRussiaforwantofacrimePLFM:RussiaMoreDangerousThan
ISISOhLook...Putsta'isBlamingGoldmanSachsTooPutin'sGeopoliticalTrolling&theUSSCook(interestingread,including
takeonUA)
From:UkraineCrisisMediaCenter<press@uacrisis.org>
Subject:AndriyLysenko:UkrainianArmedForcesincurnolossesyesterday
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu
AndriyLysenko:UkrainianArmedForcesincurnolossesyesterday
Kyiv,April16,2016.Russia-backedmilitantgroupsshelledATOtroopspositions61timesyesterday.UkrainianArmed
Forcesincurrednolosses.MilitantsshelledUkrainianpositionsintheLuhansksectornearStanytsiaLuhanska,and
militantsarmoredpersonnelcarrierattackedATOtroopsbetweenTriokhizbenkaandKrymske.Anumberofmilitants
provocationsinvolvinguseofsmallarmswasregisterednearShchastia,KrymskevillageandPopasna,informed
ColonelAndriyLysenko,spokesmanofPresidentialAdministrationonATO-relatedissuesatapressbriefingatUkraine
CrisisMediaCenter.
Highresolutionfilecanbefoundhere
MilitantsactivityintheDonetskwasdownbymorethanhalf.ATOtroopsrecorded33attacks.Avdiivkaremainsthearea
withthehighestlevelofactivity,whereanumberofmortarattackstookplace.ThearmisticeheldinZaitseve.Nevertheless,
militantsarmoredpersonnelcarrierwasshellingUkrainianpositionsforhalfanhournorthwestofthetemporarily
occupiedHorlivka,nearLeninskesettlement.MilitantsinstigatedanumberofprovocationsnearVerkhniotoretskeandthe
Donetskairport.TheenemycontinuesshellingUkrainianpositionsnearKrasnohorivkaandMariinkaintheMariupolsector
withmortarfire.Militantsused82-mmmortarlaunchersinthevicinityofTaramchukandBerezovevillages
inMariinskyidistrictandlaunchedone120-mmbombateachpositionnearStarohnativkaandShyrokyne.Intotal,militants
violatedthearmistice20timesinthissector,saidthespokesman.TwoUkrainiantroopswerewoundedyesterdayin
combat.
Accordingtothespokesman,officersofSecurityServiceofUkrainedivulgedaservicewomaninLvivwhowaspropagating
separatistideasinRussiansocialmedia.ShehadaccesstosecretinformationandsimultaneouslyspreadRussian
propagandainthenetworks,calledupondismantlementofthestatehoodandpropagatedevasionfrommilitarydraft.
Moreover,UkrainiantroopsceasedillegalammunitionatacheckpointnearSloviansk,33cartridgesandtwogrenades,
carriedbyademobilizedservicemanoftheArmedForcesofUkraine.ItshouldbepointedoutthatIllegalhandlingof
weapons,ammunitionorexplosivesisanarticleoftheCriminalCodeofUkraineenvisagingpunishmentintheformof
imprisonmentofupo5years,summarizedCol.Lysenko.
ThecenterislocatedinTheUkrainianHouse(2Khreshchatykstreet),2ndfloor.Hotline + 3 8 0 5 0 1 5 7 8 1 5 9, + 3 8 0 9 3 5 8 4 6 6 2 4, e -
mailpress@uacrisis.org.Formoreinformationpleasevisituacrisis.org,andfollowusonTwitter,Facebook,YouTube.
UkraineCrisisMediaCenterisprovidingmediasupportona24/7basistoallthosecoveringeventsinUkraineandrunsadailyscheduleoflivepress
briefingsandmoderateddiscussionstotoprovidetheinternationalcommunitywithaccurateandup-to-dateinformationabouteventsinUkraineand
threatstonationalsecurity,particularlyinthemilitary,political,economic,energyandhumanitarianspheres.
Copyright2016UkraineCrisisMediaCenter,Allrightsreserved.
Ourmailingaddressis:
UkraineCrisisMediaCenter
UkrainianHouse,2Khreshchatykstreet
Kyiv01001
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Addustoyouraddressbook
unsubscribefromthislistupdatesubscriptionpreferences
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Subject:Ukrainianhostagefaces9yearsentenceinRussiaforwantofacrime::khpg.org
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1460767251
Ukrainianhostagefaces9yearsentenceinRussiaforwantofacrime
16.04.16|HalyaCoynash
printversion
ARussiancourtislikelyonApril20tosentenceUkrainianSerhiyLytvynovtoanythinguptothe9yearsinamaximum
securityprisondemandedbytheprosecutor.ForbeingUkrainian,effectively,sincehecommittednocrime.Thepoliticsin
thiscase,andthereislittleelse,liesinLytvynovsnationalityandRussiasundeclaredwaragainstUkraine.Russias
InvestigativeCommitteehadwantedahigh-profilewarcrimestrialbutwasdefeatedbyanhonestlawyerandthefacts.
Theycameupwithanequallysloppyandabsurdrobberycharge,anditisthattrialforwhichaverdictisawaited..
Lytvynovisa33-year-oldcowherdfromavillageintheLuhanskoblast.InAugust2014,hehadaninflamedtooththatbadly
neededtreatment,andtheclinicshewouldotherwisehavegonetoinUkrainewereunderKremlin-backedmilitantcontrol.
HewasadvisedtotryahospitalacrosstheborderintheRostovregioninRussia,wherehewasplacedinaRussianward
withmilitantsfightinginDonbas.Hewasseizedfromthereandsavagelytortured,untilhesignedconfessionstomultiple
warcrimeswhichhewassupposedtohavecommittedasamemberoftheDniprovolunteerbattalion.
JudgingbytheInvestigativeCommitteesannouncementofthechargesagainstLytvynovonOct12014,histrialwas
supposedtobeusedasproofofUkrainesgenocideagainsttheRussian-speakingpopulationinDonbas.
Lytvynovwasaccusedofhavingpersonallycarriedoutmurdersofcivilians,includingwomenandchildren.The
InvestigativeCommitteehadevendemonstratedavideowithLytvynovconfessing.Itisworthalsonotingthetestimony
givenincourtrecently,andhislawyerscommentsaboutLytvynov,whoisnotjustuneducated,butclearlyhaslearning
difficulties.Lytvynovsayshimselfthathewassimplyhandedpiecesofpapertosign.
LytvynovwasimmenselyfortunatethatViktorParshutkinagreedtorepresenthim.Parshutkinsucceededinprovingthat
theimpugnedwarcrimeshadnevertakenplaceandcouldnothavesinceneithertheallegedvictims,northeiraddresses,
actuallyexisted.
TheUkrainianhadalreadybeeninRussiandetentionforoverayearbythatstageandtheoriginalchargeshadbeenmuch
trumpetedinthepro-Kremlinmedia,sotheinvestigatorsdecidedtofindsomethingelsetopinonLytvynov.
ARussiannational,AlexanderLysenko,suddenlyappearedayearaftertheallegedeventsandclaimedthatLytvynov,
togetherwithtwounidentifiedindividuals,hadrobbedhimatgunpoint.
Accordingtothisnewstory,Lytvynovissupposedtohaveburstintoahouse,armedwithamachinegun,beatenup
Lysenkoandstolentwocars.
Theproblemsarelegion:
ThereisnorecordofLysenkohavingenteredUkraineviaapartoftheborderstillunderUkrainiancontrol.
NoristhereanythingtoindicatethatLysenkoownedthetwocars,infact,quitethecontrary.InformationfromtheUkrainian
ProsecutorGeneralsOffice,theTrafficPoliceandborderguardserviceindicatedthattheOpelFronterahadbelongedto
somebodyelseuntil1997whenitwastakenofftheregister.Itsregistrationnumber,however,washeldbyaZhiguliwhich
thepolicearesearchingfor.Theothercarwasregisteredunderadifferentnamealtogether(moredetailshere).
Parshutkintriedtogetthesechargesclassifiedaswarcrimessothattheycouldapplyfortrialbyjury.Jurymembersare
farmorelikelytobalkatpassinganobviouslyunjustverdict.Theapplicationwasunfortunatelyrejected.
Lytvynovisnopoliticalprisonerinanynormalsenseofthewordandwouldscarcelybeabletoexplainwhatishappeningin
thecountry.Hecan,however,andhasvividlydescribedthetorturehewassubjectedto.Heisequallyadamantthathe
hadneverseteyesonLysenkoorsetfootintheplacewherethisrobberyisallegedtohavetakenplace.
TherobberyofcarswhichdidnotbelongtoLysenkoandwhichheonlydecidedtoreportoverayearlater,afterthe
previouschargesagainstLysenkohadbeenproventobepurefiction.
seealso:
ZerocredibilitynoproblemforRussiaintrialoftorturedUkrainianhostage
WithalleyesonSavchenko,UkrainianhostageLytvynovsfarcicaltrialforgotten
NewchargesagainstUkrainianhostageassurrealasthoseRussiaforcedtoretract
UkrainianhostagedemandsRussiatryhimforwarcrimes
RussiaforcedtowithdrawinsanechargesagainstUkrainianhostage
FirstvictoryforUkraineagainstRussiastorture-basedjustice
MoscowsKafkaesqueUkrainianSpyCases
ArrestaUkrainianRussiasInvestigativeCommitteewilldotherest
MoscowshoutsabductionyetholdsUkrainianhostagesincommunicado
Russiaholds72-year-oldUkrainianhostageonabsurdspyingcharges
From:hunter@
Subject:RussiaismoredangerousthanIsis,saysPolishforeignminister
Russia is more dangerous than Isis, says Polish foreign minister

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/apr/15/russia-more-dangerous-isis-polish-foreign-minister-witold-waszczykowski
Witold Waszczykowski describes Russian activity as an existential threat to Europe during a debate on
the future of Nato
The Polish foreign minister, Witold Waszczykowski, also called for Nato to approve the deployment of troops on the
alliances eastern border. Photograph: Jakub Kamiski/EPA
Russia is more dangerous than Islamic State, Polands foreign minister Witold Waszczykowski, told reporters
during a visit to Slovakia.
By all evidence, Russias activity is a sort of existential threat because this activity can destroy countries, said
Waszczykowski, who was speaking in a debate on the future of Nato at the annual Globsec security forum in
Bratislava on Friday.
We also have non-existential threats like terrorism, like the great waves of migrants, he added, according to
Polands PAP news agency.
He described Isis as a very serious threat but said it is not an existential threat for Europe.
Waszczykowski also called for Nato to approve the deployment of troops on the alliances eastern border at its
July summit due to be held in Warsaw.
This will be a symbol of the determination to defend the eastern flank, he said. We can discuss the scale of
this deployment.
The Czech defence minister, Martin Stropnick, said at the conference that strengthening the Natos collective
defence capability would be the main point on the agenda at the summer summit, while warning that Russia
should not be isolated.
He added that Russia was actively testing the defensive capabilities of Nato in the Baltic region where a
number of countries have come under pressure, the Czech news agency CTK reported.
Russia will use rare talks with Nato next week to protest the alliances absolutely unjustified military buildup
in the Baltic states, Moscows Belgian ambassador said on Friday, adding that the alliance was using the Ukraine
crisis as a pretext.
Russian and Nato ambassadors will meet in Brussels on 20 April for their first formal talks in nearly two years
to discuss security issues, including the crisis in Ukraine, where Moscow is accused of backing pro-Russia
rebels against the pro-western government in Kiev.
Subject:PanamaPapers:PutinsorryforSueddeutscheZeitungerror-BBCNews[ED:Oh,look.....Putsta'isinto
pickingonGoldmanSachstoo]
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36053524
PanamaPapers:PutinsorryforSueddeutsche
Zeitungerror
APThe
KremlinsaysVladimirPutinwasmisinformedbyaidesaboutthenewspaper'sownership
VladimirPutinhasapologisedforerroneouslyclaimingthatGermannewspaperSueddeutscheZeitungwas
ownedbytheUSbankGoldmanSachs.
TheRussianpresidentmadetheremarkinatelevisedphone-inonThursday.
Itconcernedwhowasresponsibleforthepublicationoftheso-calledPanamaPapers,whichwereleakedto
SueddeutscheZeitungandrevealedmassiveinternationaltaxevasion.
InanapologyissuedbytheKremlin,MrPutinsaidhewasmisinformedbyaides.
"Itismoretheerrorofthosewhopreparedthebriefingdocuments,myerror,"DmitryPeskov,aKremlinspokesman,
toldreporters.
"Therewasinformationtherethathadnotbeencheckedandrecheckedagainandwegaveittothepresident.Wehave
apologised[tothebank]andwewillalsoapologisetothepublication."
ThePanamaPapers,whichcontainedthenamesofpeopleallegedlyinvolvedintaxevasionschemes,revealeda
numberofoffshorecompaniesownedbycloseassociatesofMrPutin.
MrPutinhasdenied"anyelementofcorruption"overtheschemes,sayinghisopponentsaretryingtodestabilise
Russia.
SueddeutscheZeitungsharedthedocumentswithalargegroupofnewspapersandpublishers,includingtheBBC.
From:VRT
Subject:Putin'sgeopoliticaltrolling:thestrategybehindRussianjetsbuzzingaUSdestroyer-----Ukraineshowsthelimitsofthis
strategy
Putin'sgeopoliticaltrolling:the
strategybehindRussianjets
buzzingaUSdestroyer
UpdatedbyZackBeauchamponApril14,2016,3:10p.m.ET@zackbeauchampzack@vox.com
KeyQuote:
WhenPutin'strolltheoryhasbeentestedinpractice,however,ithasbeenleftwanting.Ukraineisbyfarthe
clearestexample.
Thetwohighest-profileRussianforeignpolicymovesoflate,theinterventionsinUkraineandSyria,bothtestify
tothelimitsofPutin'strolldoctrinealbeitindifferentways.
InUkraine,PutinhassucceededinseizingeffectivecontrolofCrimea,aswellascreatinga"frozenconflict"in
theDonbasregionofeasternUkraine.Butit'snotactuallyclearwhythisisgoodforRussia.RetakingCrimea
hasbeenalongtimeideologicalgoalofRussiannationalists,andcontrollingtheterritorytheoreticallyhelps
securethevaluablenavalbaseinthecityofSevastopol.Butonthewhole,thesearen'texactlymassivestrategic
gains.
AndtheeasternUkraineconflicthasturnedintoanoutrightdebacle.Hundreds,ifnotthousands,ofRussian
soldiershavediedtheRussiangovernmentspends$40millionamonthonpensionsaloneforitsproxy
governmentinDonbas.
MaybethiswouldbeworthitifPutin'sintimidationcampaignhadconvincedWesterncountriestorolloverand
cedeUkrainetohim.Buttheoppositeisthecase.TheUSanditsEuropeanalliesrespondedwithpunishing
sanctions,deprivingRussianbusinessesofmuch-neededforeigncapital.AccordingtoInternationalMonetary
Fundestimates,thesanctionslikelyknockedoffsomewherebetween1and1.5percentofRussianGDPafter
theywereimplementedaprettyheftysum.
Andmorebroadly,neitherPutin'strollingexercisesnorhisUkraineinterventionhasweakenedWesternmilitary
resolve.AnewreportfromaconsortiumofEuropeanthinktanksfoundthatdefensespendingonthecontinent
willjump8.3percentin2016abreakwithaconsistentpostColdWarpatternofdecliningEuropeandefense
spending.Thethinktankssee"RussiasaggressivepostureepitomizedbyMoscowsillegalannexationofCrimea
andthecrisisinUkraine"asadirectcauseofthisspendinghike.
Thepoint,then,isthatPutin'sbrinkmanshiphasnotyieldedapliantEurope,onewillingtobendtoRussia's
interestsinUkraineandelsewhere.Inactuality,ithasledtosignificanteconomicpain,arenewedanti-Russian
allianceintheWest,andlittleinthewayofmeaningfulstrategicgains.
OnMondayandTuesday,Russianplanesandhelicoptersflewvery,verycloseto
theUSSDonaldCole,adestroyeroperatingintheBalticSea.
Howclose?Thisclose:
(EUCOM)
TheRussianplaneswereflyingattheUSshipinthesamewaytheywouldbeifthey
wereconductinganattackrun.Thankfully,theywereunarmedbuttheact
wasneedlessly,dangerouslyprovocative.What'smore,Russiahasbeendoing
thisforyears,evenbuzzingtheDonaldCookroughly12timestwoyearsago,when
itwasintheBlackSea.
Whydoesthiskeephappening?It'shardtoknowforsure,ofcourse,without
listeninginonRussianorders(whichunfortunatelyIhavesofarbeenunabletodo).
ButgivenwhatweknowaboutRussianforeignpolicyinthePutinera,these
overflightsmakealotofsense.
Putin,yousee,haselevatedaggressivegeopoliticaltrollingtothelevelofdoctrine.
Needlessprovocationsaimedatsignaling"strength"havebecomeahallmarkof
Russia'sforeignpolicyinthePutinyears.Theseactionsarebuzzyandgeneratealot
ofbreathlesscoverageintheAmericanpress,buttheyoftenofferlittleinthewayof
actualstrategicvalueforRussiaandindeedoftenriskscaryescalation.
Inotherwords,theUSSDonaldCookoverflightsaren'tanaberration.They'rea
perfectmetaphorformuchofRussianforeignpolicyunderPutin:loud,buzzy,
dangerous,andnotactuallyallthatgreatformostRussians.
Putin'strollyforeignpolicy
(SashaMordovets/GettyImages)
ExamplesofdangerousRussianprovocationsabound.InSeptember2014,Russian
soldiersabductedanEstonianintelligenceofficer.EstoniaisaNATOmemberthe
abductionhappenedjusttwodaysafterPresidentObamagaveaspeechvowingto
defendEstoniaandotherBalticNATOstatesfromaggression.
Thatsameyear,RussianwarshipsviolatedLatvianwaters(anotherBalticNATO
member)40times.Russiahasalsomadeahabitofflyingplanesnearoroverthe
Balticswiththeirtranspondersswitchedoffmakingithardtoascertainwhether
theirintentionswerepeaceful.Someofthoseplaneswerenuclear-capablestrategic
bombers.
We'veseensimilarbehaviorintheMiddleEast.DuringRussia'sinterventionin
Syria,RussianplanesrepeatedlyviolatedTurkishairspace.Thiscontinuedeven
afterTurkeyshotdownaRussianplaneinNovember2015.Turkeyisyou
guesseditaNATOmember.
Thepointisthatthesesortsoflow-levelmilitaryprovocationshavebecomeroutine
partsofRussianforeignpolicyit'sjustsomethingPutindoes.
Why?Putinappearstoseetheseprovocationsasawaytointimidatehis
adversariesintheWestnamely,theUSandNATO.Thebasictheoryisthatifhe
signalsawillingnesstoriskconflict,theWestwillbackdown.Goingtowarwith
Russiawouldbeobjectivelyinsane,sotheideaisthatifPutinseemscrazyand
eagertopickafight,hisadversarieswon'tbewillingtoriskitover,say,Ukraineor
SyriaissuesthatareimportantbutcertainlynotworthgoingtowarwithRussia
over.
"Hiscalculationappearstobethatthescarierheseems,themorepoliticaltraction
hehas,"MarkGaleotti,aprofessoratNYUwhostudiesRussia,wroteinaFebruary
pieceforVox."WhattheKremlindoeshaveisthewilltotakerisks,ignoretherules,
andhopethattheothersideismoresensible,morecautious,morewillingtomake
concessionsthanitistocallRussia'sbluff."
AccordingtoGaleotti,thisisanattempttodoasmuchasRussiacanwithwhatlittle
ithas.TheRussianmilitaryisweak,despiteasignificantPutin-directedinitiativeto
repairit.Itspoliticalinstitutionsaredeeplycorrupt.Itstroubledeconomyisoil-
dependentandhurtlingtowarddisaster.
Russiahasveryfewtoolstoadvanceitsinterests,inotherwordssoPutinhas
decidedthatflashytrollingisawaytomakethemostofit.
(VadimMassalimov/KommersantviaGettyImages)Russian-backedUkrainianseparatistsonatank.
WhenPutin'strolltheoryhasbeentestedinpractice,however,ithasbeenleft
wanting.Ukraineisbyfartheclearestexample.
Thetwohighest-profileRussianforeignpolicymovesoflate,theinterventionsin
UkraineandSyria,bothtestifytothelimitsofPutin'strolldoctrinealbeitindifferent
ways.
InUkraine,PutinhassucceededinseizingeffectivecontrolofCrimea,aswellas
creatinga"frozenconflict"intheDonbasregionofeasternUkraine.Butit'snot
actuallyclearwhythisisgoodforRussia.RetakingCrimeahasbeenalongtime
ideologicalgoalofRussiannationalists,andcontrollingtheterritorytheoretically
helpssecurethevaluablenavalbaseinthecityofSevastopol.Butonthewhole,
thesearen'texactlymassivestrategicgains.
AndtheeasternUkraineconflicthasturnedintoanoutrightdebacle.Hundreds,ifnot
thousands,ofRussiansoldiershavediedtheRussiangovernmentspends$40
millionamonthonpensionsaloneforitsproxygovernmentinDonbas.
MaybethiswouldbeworthitifPutin'sintimidationcampaignhadconvincedWestern
countriestorolloverandcedeUkrainetohim.Buttheoppositeisthecase.TheUS
anditsEuropeanalliesrespondedwithpunishingsanctions,deprivingRussian
businessesofmuch-neededforeigncapital.AccordingtoInternationalMonetary
Fundestimates,thesanctionslikelyknockedoffsomewherebetween1and1.5
percentofRussianGDPaftertheywereimplementedaprettyheftysum.
Andmorebroadly,neitherPutin'strollingexercisesnorhisUkraineinterventionhas
weakenedWesternmilitaryresolve.AnewreportfromaconsortiumofEuropean
thinktanksfoundthatdefensespendingonthecontinentwilljump8.3percentin
2016abreakwithaconsistentpostColdWarpatternofdecliningEuropean
defensespending.Thethinktankssee"Russiasaggressivepostureepitomizedby
MoscowsillegalannexationofCrimeaandthecrisisinUkraine"asadirectcauseof
thisspendinghike.
Thepoint,then,isthatPutin'sbrinkmanshiphasnotyieldedapliantEurope,one
willingtobendtoRussia'sinterestsinUkraineandelsewhere.Inactuality,ithasled
tosignificanteconomicpain,arenewedanti-RussianallianceintheWest,andlittle
inthewayofmeaningfulstrategicgains.
Russia'sSyriainterventionisanexception
(RussiaWorks.Ru)TanksfiringinJobar,atowninSyria,filmedbyaRussiandrone.
InSyria,Russialaunchedanintensecampaignthatlastedonlysixmonthsbefore
Putinannouncedadrawdown.Thetacticalgoaloftheescalationwasclear:
reversingthebattlefieldmomentumagainstRussia'sallyBasharal-Assad.Thisisthe
oppositeoftheUkraineintervention,anopen-endedcommitmentwithoutanobvious
tacticalendpoint.
Indeed,theSyriainterventionrepresentsanexceptiontoPutin'strollingpolicyin
general.Andthat'swhy,inaverylimitedsense,itkindofworked.
RussianbombingwasabsolutelyvitaltotheAssadregime'srecentgainsnear
Aleppo,Syria'slargestcity,nearLatakiainwesternSyria,andinthesouthernDaraa
province.Thesegainshaveflippedthebattlefieldmomentum,ensuringAssadwon't
collapseinthenearterm(asseemedplausiblejustbeforetheRussianintervention).
SoRussiaproppedupaclientregimethattheWesthatesandtheUSjustsat
thereandwatched.SeemslikeasuccessforPutin'strollingstrategy,no?
Notsofast.IfyoulookcloselyatRussia'sstrategyinSyria,itbecomesclearthatit's
insomewaysanabandonmentofthetrollingstrategyPutinhasusedagainstthe
West.
Firstoff,whilethemilitarygainsRussiasecuredforAssadwereimpressive,they
haven'tactuallysavedhim.
"TheRussianinterventiondoesnotbyitselfensureAssadslong-termfuture,"the
LevantineGroup,aMiddleEastintelligencefirmthatfocusesonSyria,writesina
recentreport.Assadisstilltooweaktowinthewaronhisown,forreasonsthe
reportexplains:
Theoverrelianceonauxiliaryandlargelyforeignforceshasdeepened,andwhile
theseforceshaveprovenefficientontheoffensive,theywontbesufficienttofill
thegapsinAssadsdefense:Theregimesgainsactuallyaccentuatethe
persistentmanpowerissue,asAssadneedstodefendawiderterritory.
FortheRussianstrategytoultimatelysucceed,itwillneedtosecure
apoliticalresolution,notjustamilitaryonethatis,anegotiatedendtotheconflict
inSyriathatsecuresRussia'sinterests,suchasmaintainingitsnavalportinthe
SyriancityofTartus.Andthatwon'thappenwithoutbeingabletoreachsomekindof
negotiatedsettlementwiththeUnitedStatesandotherregionalpowers.
Russiarecognizesthis.That'swhyRussianForeignMinisterSergeiLavrovworked
withSecretaryofStateJohnKerrytobrokeraceasefireafterward,whichhasat
leastsomewhatsucceededinreducingviolence.Thiswasn'taccomplishedby
intimidatingtheUnitedStatesintocapitulating,butratherbygoodold-fashioned
diplomacy,wherebothsidescometoagreeabletermsbasedonmutualinterests.
Putin'sgoalinSyria,it'snowprettyclear,wastostrengthenRussia'shandin
negotiationsbothwiththeWest,bystrengtheningthemilitarypositionofRussia's
ally,andwithAssadhimself,byshowingthathedependedonRussia'ssupportfor
survivalandtherebycreatingtheleveragetoeventuallyforcehimtoacceptapeace
dealonRussianterms.Inotherwords,thegoalistosecureRussianinterestsinany
peacedeal,nottointimidatetheWestintoacceptinganAssadvictory.
Hencewhy,inDecember,RussiavotedforaUNSecurityCouncilresolutioncalling
foratransitionalgovernmentinSyriatoreplacethecurrentregimesomething
RussiaobviouslywouldnothavedoneifthegoalweretokeepAssadinpower.
Thestrategyhere,then,istheoppositeoftheintimidationstrategyPutinispursuing
inEurope.ThetwosharesomecommonobjectivesgettingtheWesttorecognize
Russiaasaglobalpower,forexamplebutthisstrategyinvolvesleveragingfora
compromiseratherthanintimidatingtheWestintoacceptingRussiandemands.The
endsmaybesomewhatsimilar,butthemeansareradicallydifferent.
AndthatispreciselywhytheinterventioninSyriaworked.
WhyPutindoesthis:It'sgoodforhim
(AlexeyDruzhinin/RiaNovosti/AFP/GettyImages)
SoifPutin'sattempttouseprovocationstointimidatetheWesthasn'tbeenallthat
successful,andcomeswithrealcosts,whyishedoingit?
Therearemanyanswers,includingPutin'sownideologicalviewofRussiaandits
placeintheworld.Butakeypartofthestoryisself-interest:Loudprovocationswith
theWesthelpPutinathome.
Since2012,Putinhasfacedaseriouslegitimacyproblem.Hisreelectionbidthat
yearwasmarredbymassprotestsandangeratanallegedlyriggedgame,andthe
subsequentslowdownoftheRussianeconomyhasmadeitseemlikehehaslittleto
offerthepeople.
Thesolution,asmycolleagueMaxFisherexplains,isnationalismbuytheloyalty
oftheRussianpeoplebyassertingitspowerontheworldstage:
Putin'sanswerhasbeentoassertRussianpowerbeyonditsactualstrength
and,intheprocess,torecasthimselfasanationalheroguardingagainstforeign
enemies.Withoutaworld-power-classmilitaryoreconomyathisdisposal,heis
insteadwieldingconfusionanduncertaintywhichSovietleadersrightly
avoidedasexistentialdangersasweaponsagainsttheWest.
TrollingtheWestisacorepartofthat.SendingshipsintoLatvianwaters,abducting
anEstonianintelligenceofficer,andaboveallinterveninginUkraineareall
waysofassertingRussia'sgeopoliticaldominance,thusshowingtheRussianpeople
thattheircountryandtheirleaderisstrong.Indeed,Putin'spopularityinRussia
hasshotupsincetheUkraineintervention.(Interestingly,roughly69percentof
RussiansopposedtheSyriainterventionattheoutset.)
Now,thisisn'tallaboutpopularity:Itseemslikely,basedonwhatweknowabout
Putin,thathealsogenuinelybelievesRussiaisagreatpowerthatisowedrespect
fromWesterncountries.
Butit'stoughtomakesenseoftheflashy,high-profile,andultimately
ineffectivewayshe'schosentogoaboutassertingRussianinterestswithoutseeing
thematleastpartlythroughthelensofdomesticRussianpolitics.
Onceyouunderstandthis,then,Russia'strollingactivitiesincludingbuzzing
theUSSDonaldColebecomemorecomprehensible.They'renotactsof
dominance,showinghowmuchtougherPutinisthanObama.They'renotactsofa
madmanintentonstartingawar.
They'reactsofaninsecuredictator,equippedwithaweakmilitary,doingwhathecan
toasserthisplaceintheworld.They'reactsofweakness.
From: MartinDewhirst<martin.dewhirst@googlemail.com>
Senttime: 04/24/201612:18:44PM
To: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:2016-#76-Johnson'sRussiaList
DearPeter,
Iknowyouhaveotherpriorities,butIthinkyoushouldreaditem3,
preferablyusingthelinktothefullversion.PetrovgivesPutinone
moreyearbeforehe'soverthrown,atmosttwoyears.IreadPetrov
regularly,andhaven'tcomeacrossanythinglikethisfromhimbefore.I
don'tcompletelyagreewithhim,andIsticktomyoriginalbetthat
Putinwillstillbetherein2020,butthisisthefirsttimeI'vehad
seriousdoubtsthatI'llwin.Ofcourse,someadditionalWestern
sanctionswouldhelptoincreasethechancesthatI'lllose,butIdon't
thinkeitheryourPresidentortheEUiswillingtohelpyoutowinourbet.
Best,
Martin
copy:ro
--------ForwardedMessage--------
Subject:2016-#76-Johnson'sRussiaList
Date:Thu,21Apr201611:27:52-0400(EDT)
From:DavidJohnson
Reply-To:davidjohnson@starpower.net
To:martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Havingtroubleviewingthisemail?Clickhere
Johnson'sRussiaList
2016-#76
21April2016
davidjohnson@starpower.net
AprojectsponsoredthroughtheInstituteforEuropean,Russian,and
EurasianStudies(IERES)atTheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity'sElliott
SchoolofInternationalAffairs*
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Youseewhatyouexpecttosee
"Thebiggestcommunicationproblemiswedonotlistentounderstand.We
listentoreply."*
*Inthisissue*
TODAY<#LETTER.BLOCK4>
1.RFE/RL:BrianWhitmore,OnMyMind.<#LETTER.BLOCK5>
2.RFE/RL:BrianWhitmore,TheDailyVertical:TheKremlin'sSpin,
NATO'sReality.<#LETTER.BLOCK6>
3.EuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations:NikolayPetrov,Putin's
downfall:ThecomingcrisisoftheRussianregime.Thecurrenttrajectory
oftheRussianregimeisunstableandwithoutdramaticchangeitwill
crumblewithinthenextyear,accordingtoaleadingRussiaspecialist.
<#LETTER.BLOCK7>
4.Newsweek.com:PUTINISA'SMARTBUTTRULYEVILMAN,'SAYSMADELEINE
ALBRIGHT.<#LETTER.BLOCK8>
5.Euromaidanpress.com:MadeleineAlbrightandRussia's"usefulidiots"
<#LETTER.BLOCK9>
6.MoscowTimes:KirillRogov,Putin'sEconomist:WhyKudrinTappedto
WriteNewReformsPlan.<#LETTER.BLOCK10>
7.MoscowTimes:SamGreene,TheMasksComeOffbutRussianOfficials
HaveNothingLefttoSay.<#LETTER.BLOCK11>
8.Vedomosti:Russiansseeparliamentashaving"symbolic"significance
-pollsterchief.(AlekseyLevinson)<#LETTER.BLOCK12>
9.MoscowTimes:MoreThanHalfofRussiansWantNewSovietState-
Poll.<#LETTER.BLOCK13>
10.PaulGoble:Russians'ApproachtoPoliticsInconsistentand
Paradoxical,SociologistSays.<#LETTER.BLOCK14>
11.Politkom.ru:MostRussiansnotinterestedingettingtruepictureof
world-analysis.<#LETTER.BLOCK15>
12.www.opendemocracy.net:BadmaByurchiev,Russia'sregions:federalism
anditsdiscontents.CreatingtheappearanceofstabilityistheRussian
politicalelite'sprimarygoal.Yetcolonial-likeruleoverthe
country'sregions,combinedwithalackofcivicactivity,harmsthe
Kremlin'slegitimacyontheground.<#LETTER.BLOCK16>
13.TheNewYorkReviewofBooks:TimothySnyder,Trump'sPutinFantasy.
<#LETTER.BLOCK17>
14.DeutscheWelle:HowNigeriangirlsareforcedintoprostitutionin
Russia.<#LETTER.BLOCK18>
15.TheGuardian(UK):Russia's'coldturkey'approachhighlightsglobal
divideoverdrugtreatmentatUN.Russianrepresentativesuggests
methadoneandheroinarethe'samenarcoticdrug'asoutsideexperts
condemncountry'stakeontreatment:'They'retheworldleaderin
denyingthescience'<#LETTER.BLOCK19>
16.RFE/RL:BarredFromHundredsOfOccupationsInRussia,AFewWomen
FightBack.<#LETTER.BLOCK20>
17.Time.com:WhyaWininaDutchCourtIsMakingVladimirPutinSo
Happy.AcourtintheHaguehasquasheda$50billionjudgmentagainst
theRussianstate.ButPresidentPutin'senemiesfromtheYukosaffair
aren'tgivingupanytimesoon.<#LETTER.BLOCK21>
18.www.foreignaffairs.com:GregoryFeifer,IncorruptiblePutin.Whythe
PanamaAllegationsWon'tStick.<#LETTER.BLOCK22>
19.KennanInstitute:MaximTrudolyubov,HardWorkvs.Magic.
<#LETTER.BLOCK23>
20.www.foreigpolicy.com:SitRep:Exclusive:PentagonSaysRussiaCan
FightinUkraineandSyriaAnotherTwoYears.<#LETTER.BLOCK24>
21.NewYorkTimes:RussiaBolstersItsSubmarineFleet,andTensions
WithU.S.Rise.<#LETTER.BLOCK25>
22.WallStreetJournal:JoshuaYaffa,Russia'sWilyMenandWomen.
Russiansholdviewsthatseemimpossibletoreconcile.Studentsata
reputableschoolofferacuriousmixofheroes:StalinandSteveJobs.
(rePUTINCOUNTRYbyAnneGarrels)<#LETTER.BLOCK26>
23.BulletinoftheAtomicScientists:InterviewwithFormerUS
ambassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaul.<#LETTER.BLOCK27>
24.TheAmericanInterest:LiliaShevtsova,HOWTHEWESTMISJUDGED
RUSSIAPART13.TheKremlin'sTriadastheMeansofSurvival.TheWest
needstounderstandthattheRussianSystemiswillingtofightforits
survival,andthatthisfightcouldtakemanydifferentforms.
<#LETTER.BLOCK28>
25.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:Atacrossroads:Theanxietiesofa
globalizedworld.InanRBTHexclusive,formerSovietleaderMikhail
Gorbachevwritesabouttheinternationalcrisisofleadershipandthe
challengesfacingpoliticiansaroundtheworldinatimeofmoral
uncertaintyandlackofunityandvisionforthefuture.<#LETTER.BLOCK29>
26.Irrussianality:PaulRobinson,LEGALBLOWBACK.<#LETTER.BLOCK30>
27.ChristianScienceMonitor:FredWeir,Revivalofdiplomacy?Ukraine,
Russiamakeprogressonprisonerswap.<#LETTER.BLOCK31>
28.BostonGlobe:LevGolinkin,PopeFrancis,askmoreforUkraine.
<#LETTER.BLOCK32>
29.Sputnik:Kremlin:RussiatoBeHappyIfUkraine'sAssociationWith
EUYieldsSuccess.<#LETTER.BLOCK33>
30.http://gordonhahn.com:GordonHahn,The20April2014Easter
Attack:AgainonRightSectorandtheMakingoftheUkrainianCivilWar.
<#LETTER.BLOCK34>
#1
RFE/RL
April21,2016
OnMyMind
ByBrianWhitmore
YouhavetowonderwhatdrivespeoplelikeAlekseiKudrinandElla
Pamfilova.Bothwereinthenewsthisweek.Kudrinacceptedanofferto
chairtheKremlin'stopeconomicsthinktank,theCenterforStrategic
Reform,andcalledforafundamentalrestructuringofRussia'seconomy
andpoliticalsystem.AndPamfilova,whowasrecentlyappointedheadof
theElectionCommission,raisedeyebrowsbycancelingelectionsinthe
MoscowsuburbofBarvikhaafterfouroppositioncandidatescomplainedof
fraud.PamfilovasaysshewillresignifthereisfraudinSeptember's
electionstotheStateDuma.Callmecynical(althoughIdon'tthinkI
am),butIjustdon'tthinkthekindofeconomicreformsKudrinis
proposingarepossibleunderthecurrentregime.Atbest,he'llbe
allowedtotinkeronthemargins.Andcallmecynicalagain(andagain,
Idon'tthinkIam),butIdon'texpectSeptember'selectiontobe
clean.RegimeliberalslikeKudrinandPamfilovaremainconvincedthat
thePutinregimecanbereformedandchangedfromwithin.Itcan't.
Becausereformingthisregimewouldmeanunderminingitscorrupt
foundations,whichwouldleadtoitsfall.AndthisisnotwhatPutin
hasinmind.
[returntoContents]<#n0>
#2
RFE/RL
April20,2016
TheDailyVertical:TheKremlin'sSpin,NATO'sReality
ByBrianWhitmore
TheKremlinanditssurrogatesarespinningtoday'smeetingofthe
NATO-RussiaCouncilastheendofMoscow'sisolation.
InBrussels,itisviewedasatechnicalmeetingtoputsafeguardsin
placetopreventanaccidentalconflictfrombreakingoutamidrising
tensions.
TheKremlinsaysrevivingtheNATO-RussiaCouncilafternearlytwoyears
isproofthatachastenedWesthasrealizedtheerrorofitswaysandis
nowreadytoengageMoscow.
InWesterncapitals,themeetingislargelyviewedasanecessaryevil
andanopportunitytocalloutRussiafortheprovocativeactionsofits
warplanesininternationalairspace--andtheircontinuedviolationsof
NATOairspace.
TheKremlinispresentingtheresurrectionoftheNATO-RussiaCouncilas
asignthattheUkrainecrisishaschangedtherulesofinternational
politicsinMoscow'sfavor.
NATOofficialsseeitasanopportunitytoreprimandRussiaforits
continuedeffortstodestabilizeUkraine,foritsfailuretoabideby
theMinskcease-fireagreement--andtoreinforcethemessagethatthis
behaviorhascostsandconsequences.
Today'smeetingamongNATOandRussianenvoyswillagainillustratethat
MoscowandtheWestliveincompletelydifferentcognitiverealities.
TheKremlin'spropagandamachinewillspinitasamajorvictoryfora
resurgentRussia.
Butopticsaside,itwillbenothingofthesort.
#3
EuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations
www.ecfr.eu
April19,2016
Putin'sdownfall:ThecomingcrisisoftheRussianregime
ByNikolayPetrov
NikolayPetrovisavisitingfellowattheEuropeanCouncilonForeign
Relations.HewaschairoftheCarnegieMoscowCenter'sSocietyand
RegionsProgram.HeworkedintheInstituteofGeographyattheRussian
AcademyofSciencesfrom1982to2006.Heservedaschieforganiserof
theAnalysisandForecastDivisionintheSupremeSoviet(1991-1992),
wasanadviserandanalystfortheRussianPresidentialAdministration
(1994-1995),andascholarattheKennanInstituteforAdvancedRussian
Studies(1993-1994)andtheInternationalFoundationforElectoral
Systems(1994).From1996to2000,PetrovworkedattheCarnegieMoscow
Centerasaseniorconsultantandscholar-in-residence.Petrovearned
hisPh.D.fromMoscowStateUniversity.MoscowTimescolumnist.
[Fulltexthere
http://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/putins_downfall_the_coming_crisis_of_the_russian_regime700
6
ThecurrenttrajectoryoftheRussianregimeisunstableandwithout
dramaticchangeitwillcrumblewithinthenextyear,accordingtoa
leadingRussiaspecialist.
"Putin'sdownfall:ThecomingcrisisoftheRussianregime"byNikolay
PetrovarguesthatRussia'spoliticalregimeisunsustainableandlacks
capacitytoreforminthefaceofeconomicturmoil.Hearguesthatthe
regimehaslittleroomformanoeuvre,asexcessivecentralisationmakes
thesystemunstableandinefficient.Followingpreviousdomestic
dissent,VladimirPutincentralisedallpowerinthepresidencyand
weakenedRussianpoliticalandstateinstitutionsintheprocess.Now,
theregimeneedstokeepdeliveringmilitaryvictoriesorfacealossof
support.
PetrovassertsthattheRussianregimehasonlytwowaysoutofits
comingcrisis,bothofwhichhavelimitations.Thefirstistoreconcile
withtheWestandsoimproveitsfinances,byreininginanti-Western
rhetoricandappointingprominentreformerstokeypositionsinthe
government.Petrovbelievesthisisunlikelygiventhedeeplyentrenched
hostilitybetweenRussiaandtheWest.
Thesecondwayout,accordingtoPetrov,istochangeleader.WithPutin
havingstakedhispoliticalpoweronthelegitimacyofmilitaryvictory,
thesystemwillbreakdownwhenRussiastopswinning.Thealternativeis
anewleaderwithadifferent-perhapsanelectoral-mandate.However,
thisoptiontooisfraughtwithdangers.Withnoclear'heir',the
current,highlycentralisedandhighlypersonalised,systemwouldneed
toberebuilt.
Thealternativetotheseexitstrategiesisariskycollapse.
UncontrolledregimechangewouldleaveRussiawithoutvisibleleadersor
effectivestateinstitutions.Inthisscenario,powercouldbeassumed
byacoalitionofcorporations,redistributedamongvariousbodies,
includinggovernmentagencies,largecompanies,andevencertain
regions,suchasTatarstanandChechnya.
Summary
-Russia'spoliticalregimeisunsustainable.Ithasnocapacityto
reform,andfacesgrowingeconomicwoes,crumblinginfrastructure,and
warringelites.
-Afterwidespreadprotestsandebbingofsupport,thegovernmentbegan
in2014tobaseitslegitimacyonwinningwars.Putincentralisedall
powerinthepresidency,suppressingdissentandweakeninginstitutions
intheprocess.
-Now,theregimeneedstokeepdeliveringmilitaryvictoriesorfacea
lossofsupport.Excessivecentralisationmakesthesystemunstableand
inefficient,focusedonsurvivalratherthanstrategy.Assanctionsbite
andfundsrunshort,theelitesaregrowingimpatient,andthechanceof
conflictisrisinginregionssuchastheCaucasus.
-TherearetwowaysoutfortheRussianregime:improveitsfinancesby
reconcilingwiththeWest,orregainlegitimacybyreplacingthe
president.Eventhesewillonlybuyittime,andmaynotpreventatotal
collapse.
-ThereisnoclearheirtoPutin,andcollapsecouldbefollowedbythe
redistributionofpowertovariousgovernmentbodies,companies,and
regions,includingChechnya.
Russia'scurrentregimewillnotlastlong.Thetumultuouseventsin
Ukrainein2014reducedthecountry'spossibletrajectoriestoasingle
one-apaththatwillquicklyleadtothecollapseofthePutin
governmentifthereisnoradicalchangeinitscourse.
BeforetheCrimea-Ukraineaffair,itlookedasthoughPresidentVladimir
Putin'spoliticalregimewasfairlystableandcouldlastforseveral
yearswithoutprofoundchange.However,therewasaqualitativeshiftin
theregime'scharacterafter2014.Now,itdrawsitslegitimacyfrom
militaryaction,ratherthanfromtheballotbox.Therootsofthis
shiftgobacktothepoliticalcrisisof2011-2012,whenmass
anti-governmentprotestsandpoorelectoralresultsfortherulingparty
showedthattheoldformofpoliticswascomingtoanend.
Today,theregimederivesitslegitimacynotfromthebottomup,through
elections,butfromthetopdown,byplacingthecountryonapermanent
warfooting.AlthoughPutinstayedinpower,hisrolechanged
fundamentally-now,heismorelikeatsarthanthechairofaboard.
Theregimehasmovedfromahybridsystemthatstillmaintainedthe
outwardtrappingsofademocracytoafull-scaleauthoritarianstate,
whiletheshiftingbalanceofpowerhasmadetheelitesmoredependent
onthepresident.
AlthoughPutin'spopularityskyrocketedaftertheannexationofCrimea,
hehasbeentrappedbyhischoices.Hisregimeisaddictedtomilitary
actionandnowneedsaseriesofever-strongerhitsofforeignconflict
inordertomaintainitslegitimacy.Thispositionisunsustainable,
givenshrinkingfinancialresources,thewaningpatienceofeliteswho
don'twanttoliveinamilitarycampforever,andRussia's
fast-deterioratingadministrativeandpoliticalsystems.Thecountryis
beingheldhostagebytheregimetheregimeisahostageofPutin,and
Putinisahostageofhisownactions,whichhavedrasticallynarrowed
hisrangeofoptions.
Givenallthis,Russia'scurrenttrajectoryisthatofaplaneina
tailspin.Therearethreepossibleoutcomes:
(A)Regimechange:Theplanecrashesintotheground,andthecurrent
Russianpoliticalregimeundergoesacompletecollapse,withbothleader
andinstitutionsremoved
(B)Exitstrategy1:Theplanepullsoutofthetailspin,withthepilot
stillinplace.ThiscouldinvolvereconciliationwiththeWest,ora
sharpincreaseintheoilprice
(C)Exitstrategy2:Thecrewselectsanewpilot,whopullstheplane
outofitstailspin.
Itisbynomeanscertainwhichofthesescenarioswillcometopass.
Theirrelativeprobabilitiesshiftaccordingtoeventsontheground,
andevenanattempttomaintainthestatusquowillaltertherangeof
possibleoutcomesinunpredictableways.Thispapersetsouttoassess
howlongtheRussianregimehasleft,settingoutthefivefactorsthat
havesentitintoitscurrenttailspin,beforeconsideringitspossible
exitstrategies,andwhattypeofregimemightcomenext.
Howlongcanitlast?
Putin'sregimecan'tlastforlonginitscurrentstate-eitherthe
planewillclimboutofthetailspin,oritwillcrash.Theconcrete
dangersfortheregimeincluderisingsocialtensionsduetocutsin
governmentspendingterroristattacksinresponsetoitsmilitary
actioninSyriaandthedilemma
ofeasternUkraine-whereitisunabletoescalate,forfearoftougher
sanctions,orretreat,forfearofbeingaccusedofbetrayingthe
nationalinterest.Underlyingallthisisthegeneralpolitical
instabilitythatcouldslideintochaosifsomethinghappenedtoPutin
himself,orifhisapproval
ratingswentintoasharpdecline.
Inaddition,thelikelihoodofanexplosionofconflictintheCaucasus
growsasfederalfundsshrink,becominginsufficienttoensurethe
loyaltyofethnicclanelites,andthustobuystabilityintheregion.
Russia'sageinginfrastructurecouldcauseatechnologicaldisasterat
anytime,andindeedthis
hashappenedseveraltimesintherecentpast.Theauthoritiesmaybe
abletodealwithindividualcrisesingovernmentinstitutionsifthey
strikeonebyone,butnotiftheytakeplaceinanavalanche,witheach
triggeringafurthercrisis.Thekeyissueistiming-howlongthe
regimecansurvivewithoutradicalchange.Predictionsvary:frommany
yearsofslowdecay,liketheRomanEmpire,toacompletetransformation
-imposedeitherfromaboveorfrombelow-bytheendof2016.
Intheviewofthisauthor,theregimehaslessthanayear:the
existentialthreatitfacesismadeupofseveraldynamics,eachof
which,takenalone,islikelytodestroytheregimeinlessthantwo
years.Whencombined,however,theyexacerbatetheturbulenceandmake
theregime'slifeexpectancyevenshorter.Byconsideringeachdynamic
separately,wecansystematicallyapproachthequestionofhowlongthe
regimehasleft....
#4
Newsweek.com
April20,2016
PUTINISA'SMARTBUTTRULYEVILMAN,'SAYSMADELEINEALBRIGHT
BYDAMIENSHARKOV
FormerU.S.SecretaryofStateMadeleineAlbrighthasincurredthewrath
ofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'salliesaftercallinghima"smart
buttrulyevilman."
InaninterviewwithAustriannewspaperDiePresse,Albrightdefended
theforeignpolicyofBillClinton'sadministration,inwhichshewas
SecretaryofStateduringClinton'sfirstterm.TheCzechRepublic,
PolandandHungarywerethefirstformerCommuniststatestojoinNATO
in1999,inwhatwouldbecomethefirststepofaneastwardexpansion
whichhasstronglyincensedMoscow.
"IamveryproudoftheNATOexpansion.Thenwemanagedtousethepower
ofWesternEuropeandhelptheBalkanstates,"Albrightsaid."The
UnitedStatessawitsroleasanindispensablenationwhichshoulddo
goodallovertheworld."
AlbrighttookalesspositiveviewofPutin,whomshemetduringavisit
totheKremlinin2000,shortlyafterhesucceededformerRussian
PresidentBorisYeltsin.Whenaskedwhatherlastingimpressionwasof
theyoungpresident,Albrightwascritical.
"Heissmart,butatrulyevilman,"shesaid,describinghimas"aKGB
officer,whowantstokeepeverythingundercontrolandbelievesthat
everyoneconspiresagainstRussia."
"Putinhadbadcards,buttheywereplayedwell,"shesaid."Atleast,
intheshort-term.IthinkhisgoalistoundermineandsplittheEU.He
wantstodriveNATOfromhissphereofinfluence."
Washington'sformertopdiplomatalsowarnedthattheBalticstates
shouldbeconcernedfromRussia'smilitarybuild-uponitsborders,
especiallybecauseofRussia'smethodof"asymmetricwarfare."
AlbrightalsodismissedRussiancriticismsthattheU.S.seeksto
provokeRussia,saying"theU.S.hasnoproblemwithRussia,exceptwhen
itoccupiesothercountries."
"OnealwayslooksforexcusesforRussiaandI'mfedupwithit,"
Albrightsaid."Russiaisacountrythatprovokesandthenfeelsinsulted."
Inresponse,Putin-allyandchairmanofRussianparliament's
InternationalRelationsCommitteeAlexeyPushkovtooktoTwitter.
"WhetherAlbrightisfedupornot,isnotimportant,"hewrote."The
U.S.anditsalliesareforcedtodealwithRussia.Theopinionofsome
forgottenSecretaryofState,isofnobody'sinterest."
[returntoContents<#n0>]
#5
Euromaidanpress.com
April20,2016
MadeleineAlbrightandRussia's"usefulidiots"
ByVitaliyPortnikov
VitaliyPortnikovisaUkrainianeditorandjournalist.BorninKyivin
1967.Since1989,heworksastheanalystoftheNezavisimayaGazeta,
specializinginpost-Sovietcountries,andcooperateswiththeRussian
andUkrainianservicesofRadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty.
TheformersecretaryofstateMadeleineAlbrighthasbecomethefocusof
Russianpropaganda.Well-knownhystericsarediscussinghervillainy.
CartoonistsaredepictingherinthetraditionoftheSoviet"portraits"
offoreignenemiesduringtheColdWar.
Andofcourseallofthem-thosewhowriteandthosewhodraw-never
tireofrepeatingthatAlbrightwhohasbeen"onthe"dustbinof
history"andwouldhaveremainedunnoticedbyallifnotforthefact
thatshehadoffended"GreatRussia"andthecountry'sinsaneleader
VladimirPutininaninterviewwiththeAustrianDiePresse.
WhenAlbrightcalledRussia"Bangladeshwithmissiles"sheremindedthe
RussianpropagandistsofthegoodoldnicknamefortheSovietUnion.The
Communistsstatewascalled"UpperVoltawithrockets"inthecivilized
world.And,incidentally,itwasnotfarfromthetruth.
Alreadyafewyearslater,whentheWestreachedthesameconclusion,
theUSSRdidnothavelongtoexist(?)IdonotdoubtthatPutin's
Russiawillfollowitsmalevolentpredecessor.ButinRussiatheytook
offenseatAlbrightnotonlyforthe"Bangladeshwithmissiles"andan
accuratepsychologicalcharacterizationofPutin,whomtheexperienced
diplomatcalleda"trulyevilman."
WhatwasmostimportantwasthatAlbrighthadjudgedthebehaviorofa
certainportionoftheWesternestablishment.
"I'mreallysickofthefactthatpeoplearealwaystryingtofind
excusesforRussia.Russiaisacountrythatprovokesandthenfeels
offended,"AlbrighttoldtheAustrianjournalists.
Shegaveatoughandaccuratedescriptionofthepoliticsofthosewho
arereadytoabandonUkrainetofendforitselfintheconflictwiththe
"offended"aggressor.
ThosewholookforjustificationsforMoscow'sactionsinRussia's
difficulthistoryandtheeternallyvictimized"Russiansoul"whichis
usuallysearchedforwiththehelpofmoneystolenfromtheRussians
themselves.Thosewhoarereadytosellinternationallawforthe
superfluoustankofoil.
ThereareplentyofsuchpeopleamongWesternpoliticians,diplomats,
andjournalists.Theyarethemainenemiesofthosevaluesuponwhich
thecivilizedworldisbased.Theyaretheenemies-notPutin.
BecausePutinisnothidinganything.Hesendsarmies.Heallowsthemto
kill,torture,rape,steal.Andthesepeoplepretendnottonotice
anything.Becausetheyareafraid.Becausetheywantmoney.Becausethey
arethe"usefulidiots"ofthenewFuhrer.Theparentsofmanyofthem
behavedinexactlythesamewayinthe1930s.
Theypreferrednottonotice.Theywereafraid.Theymadeexcuses.Or
theyadmiredthe"spirituality"-whetherNaziorBolshevik.Andthen
theywonderedwheretheGermantanksinParisorAmsterdamcamefromor
theSovietonesinRigaandTallinn.
Itisimportanttounderstandhowithappened!Perhapswehavenotfully
understood?OrhavenotgraspedtheAryansoul?AndthentheRussian
soulisacompletemystery.IfnotforHitler'sidioticattackonhis
allyStalin,ifnotfortheUSentryintothewar,Europewouldhave
losttotheReichandtheflagswiththeswastikascouldstillbewaving
overEuropeancapitals.
But,aswecansee,therehavebeennoconclusionsdrawnfromthis
inevitabledefeat,andwehavecontinuedtobeconfrontedwithstupidity
andbetrayaluntilthepresenttime.ThisissomethingthatMadeleine
Albrightwasnotafraidtosay.Andsomethingthatwe,too,mustnotforget.
#6
MoscowTimes
April21,2016
Putin'sEconomist:WhyKudrinTappedtoWriteNewReformsPlan
ByKirillRogov
KirillRogovisapoliticalanalyst.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasdecidedthatformerFinance
MinisterandDeputyPrimeMinisterAlexeiKudrinistodrawupanew
economicprogramforthecountry.
AnysensibleeconomicstrategyshouldbebaseduponRussia'sreturnto
regulartransfersofpowerintheKremlin.Noadministrationshould
servefor16years,andaconsiderablesegmentoftherulingelite
understandsthisalltoowell.
AlexeiKudrinhasbeencalledontorejectthatideaandinsteadto
writealiberaleconomicprogramforPutin.Itisdesignedtorevive
hopeamongtheelitethatPutinwilltakeamoreprogressivestance
duringhis19thyearinpower.
Kudrinhasinfactbeenbroughtintoplayanoldgame.Thiswillbethe
fourthsuchprogramofPutin'srule.
ThefirstwasdraftedbyGermanGrefbackin2000.Atthetime,Putin
wascultivatingtheimageofastrongman-reformer,amanwho
effortlesslyfulfilledthelongingoftheRussianpeopleforastrong
leaderalongsidethehopesoftheRussianeliteforaliberalmarket
economy.
Thegovernmentneverformallyadoptedtheprogram.Ministerstookthe
draft"intoconsideration,"allowingleaderstoimplementorignore
policiesastheypleased.
Imagineowningahorse-drawncart:Someonebringsyouplanstoconvert
itintoacarandyoupromiseto"takeitintoconsideration."Atsome
point,youattachsidemirrors,replacethetworearwheelswithalloy
rims,applymetallicpainttothesideboardsandinstallanair
conditionerforthedriver.Theresultisthatyouhaveostensibly
achieved35percentfulfillmentoftheplan.TheRussiangovernment
takesasimilarapproach.
Gref'ssuccessorasEconomicDevelopmentandTradeMinister,Elvira
Nabiullina,drewupthesecondeconomicprogram.Hereffortswereneeded
becausetherealitiesoftheoilboomhadderailedthemarketreforms
envisionedbyGref.Nabiullina'sprogramwasanattempttocarryout
somethingcalled"oilmodernization."Thatprojectwasapprovedin2008
butbecomeirrelevantafewmonthslaterwhenoilpricesfell.
Thethirdliberaleconomicprogramwasthefamous"Strategy2020,"
writtenbyformerPresidentDmitryMedvedev.Thatprogramwasprimarily
intendedtodemonstratePutin'sfirmcontroloverboth
conservative-strongmenandliberal-marketdiscoursesinRussiansociety.
Thisisoneofthemainpoliticalfunctionsoftheliberaleconomic
programsRussia'sseniorleadersperiodicallyorderup.Theyexistto
preventanyoneelsefromproposingpoliticaloreconomicalternatives.
Whateverhappensinreality,ifthegovernmentisrockedbytheYukos
affair,energywars,orthedrainingofpensionfunds,Putinmakessure
toalwayshaveaprogressivereformprogramonthetable.Hemakesit
clearthathejustmightimplementitatanymoment.
Thisfourthprogramwillapparentlyservethesamepurpose.Evenafter
leavingthegovernment,Kudrinhasmanagedtobuildwhatcouldserveas
thebasisforasystemicoppositionpartybyskillfullymaneuvering
betweenmoderatebutsteadyoppositionandpersonalloyaltytoPutin.Of
course,itwouldbemuchmorenaturalforKudrintoheadaprogressive
businessparty,standforelectionsandthenheadaStateDumafaction.
FortheKremlinthatisanunacceptableoption,asiseverynatural
occurrenceinpolitics.
Kudrinhasreceivedonlyvaguepromisesinhisnewpost.Hewasinvited
todraftaneconomicprogramthathasnoofficialstatusorfunding.He
wasofferedonlyindefinitepowersonthepresident'sEconomicCouncil,
astrangeandpracticallynon-functioningbodythatPutinhasnot
consultedevenoncethroughout18monthsofeconomiccrisis.
Kudrinhadbeenhopingtogainthestatusof"exclusivedeveloperof
Russia'snewreforms"and,accordingtorumors,winaseniorposition-
possiblyevendeputyheadofthepresidentialadministration.In
reality,hewasputonashortleashandwarnednottogotoofar.
ThisisdespitethefactthatPutinverymuchneedsKudrin.Bybringing
Kudrintothefore,Putinkillstwobirdswithonestone.First,he
maintainspressureonPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedev'sgovernment.
Second,inRussia,so-called"systemicliberals"fulfillcertain
paradoxicalpoliticalandfiscalfunctions.Inothercountries,itis
normalforeconomicliberalstoadvocatereductionsinpublicspending,
which,inturn,allowsthegovernmenttolowertaxesandspureconomic
growth.Russia's"systemicliberals"vociferouslycallforspendingcuts
whileneveradvocatingtaxcuts.Tothecontrary,theyevenvigorously
opposetaxcutsfromtimetotime.
Theauthoritieshavetypicallyjustifiedthisstrangepolicyonthe
groundsthattheyhaveneededtobuildupfiscalreserves.Overthelast
sevenyearswhilecofferswerefull,theworldsawjusthowthose
reserveswerespent.Thatexcesscashallowedthegovernmenttoavoid
implementingessentialreformsevenduringatimeofeconomiccrisis.It
wasspentonstaginghistory'scostliestOlympicGamesandawildly
expensiveAsia-PacificEconomicCooperation(APEC)summit,savingthe
Vneshekonombank(VEB)frombankruptcy,increasingdefenseandsecurity
spendingandcreatingtheNationalGuard.
Putindoesneeda"cost-cuttingparty"duringtheeconomiccrisis,and
itneedstobeabureaucratic,non-politicalpartythatwillnotexceed
acceptableboundaries.Thispartyshouldfocusonincreasingsupportfor
raisingtheretirementage:oneofthekeyfiscalmeasuresneededto
preservethe"Putinsystem"duringthiseconomiccrisis.Theexpectation
isthatKudrinwillagreetothisrolewithoutmakingexcessive
politicaldemandsofhisown.
Havingsomeonetofulfillthatroleseemstobetherationalebehindthe
currentmoveKudrinisproposingtodraftaneconomicprogramthat,just
likethepreviousthree,noonehasanyintentionofcarryingout.He
hasn'tbeenpromisedanythingandisexpectedtodoalotofdirtywork
inreturn.
[returntoContent<#n0>s]
#7
MoscowTimes
April21,2016
TheMasksComeOffbutRussianOfficialsHaveNothingLefttoSay
BySamGreene
SamGreeneisapoliticalanalyst.
IfRussianliberalsthinkthey'vegotitbad,theyshouldstopfora
momenttoconsidertheplightofAlexanderBastrykin.
Formally,Bastrykin'sroleasheadofRussia'sInvestigativeCommittee
istoinvestigatecrimewhilesimultaneouslycompetingforresourcesand
influencewithpoliceandprosecutors.Bynight,theludicrousnessof
thatposition-evidencedbytherunningbattlebetweenhiscommittee
andthefederalprosecutorsoverwhethertoremandbusinessmanDmitri
Kamenshchik-evidentlyleaksintohisalter-egoasabsurdistpolitical
theorist.
Littledidheknowhe'dbehavecompetitionintheformofElla
Pamfilova,thehumanrightsactivistturnedheadoftheRussianCentral
ElectionCommission.
WhyBastrykinfeltmovedtoenterintothepublicfraythisweek,
penninganessayintheKommersantVlastmagazinethatseemeddesigned
toconfirmeveryRussianliberal'sworstfears,wecannotknow.
Perhaps,assomehavesuggested,hewaslobbyingfornewpowersto
counterseditiononline,inuniversitiesandelsewhere.It'sunlikely,
though,thatthepagesofasemi-liberalmagazinearethebestvenuefor
that.Maybe,aftertherecentshakeupinRussia'slawenforcement
universe,hefeltunsureofhispositionanddecidedtotrytoprovehis
loyaltyandusefulnesswithadeclarationofideologicalfervor.That
tackdidn'tworksowellforoustedrailwayschiefVladimirYakunin.
Whatwedoknow,however,isthatBastrykinsaidnothingnew.The
proposalstomoretightlycontrolflowsofinformationandcapitalhave
beenaroundforyears.TaxpoliceandRoskomnadzoralreadyhavemostof
theextra-judicialpowersthatBastrykinsaysaresocritical.
Similarly,authoritiesclearlyseeideologyandhistoryasa
battleground,andhavelongarguedthattheiropponentsarebackedby
theWest.AndthefactthatMoscow'senforcershavelittlepatiencefor
thenicetiesofconstitutionalismshould,in2016,comeasasurpriseto
noone.
Andso,unableorunwillingtotellusanythingwedidn'talreadyknow,
Bastrykinfollowedinthefootstepsofcountlesspreacherswhohavebeen
abandonedbytheirmuse:Hesimplysaiditlouderandbrasher.
Whatcaughtreaders'attentionwasBastrykin'scallto"stopplayingat
falsedemocracy"andabandon"pseudo-liberalvalues."LikeDonaldTrump
intheUnitedStates,we'renotsurprisedBastrykinthinksthesethings,
butweallowourselvesamomentofrighteousindignationwhenhe
actuallysaysthem.
That'sthemirrorimageofliberals'reactiontoPamfilova.Shortly
afterBastrykinpublishedhisthesis,Pamfilovatoldopposition
candidateIvanZhdanov-whoisfacingprosecutiononevidentlytrumped
upcharges-thatheshouldhave"knownwhatwouldhappenwhenyouwent
intopolitics."ThataRussianelectionofficialwouldsaysuchathing
is,alas,parforthisparticularcoursethesurpriseisthat
Pamfilova,whospentherlifeinthehumanrightscommunity,might
actuallythinkit.
Liberals'doubtsaboutPamfilovaintensifiedwhensheinitiallyturneda
blindeyetoobviousfraudaroundlocalcouncilelectionsinthe
affluentMoscowsuburbofBarvikha.Zhdanovandotherssupportedby
AlexeiNavalny'sPartyofProgressdecidedtocontesttheelectionsas
anearlytestofhowtheKremlin-andPamfilova-wouldmanagethe
upcomingDumavote.Presentedwithevidenceoftheusualrepertoireof
early-voteballotstuffingandotherformsofmanipulation,Pamfilova
offeredtopasstheallegationsontoYuryChaika,theprosecutor
generalwhosefamily'sbusinessdealingshavebeensubjecttoarecent
investigationbyNavalnyandZhdanov.Theironywaslostonnoone.
Navalnyeventuallyyankedhiscandidatesfromtherace,passingjudgment
onPamfilovaintheprocess.Nodoubtspurredonbythecriticism,the
nextdaytheCentralElectionCommitteedemandedthatlocalofficials
cancelthevotewhatwillhappennextremainsunclear.
ImagineBastrykin'sfrustration:Herehewas,settingeverythingupfor
agood-cop-bad-coproutine,andPamfilovashowsup,wantingtoplaythe
badcoptoo.Butthecomedymasksadeepertragedy:Whenthereareno
otherwordstosayandnothoughtstothink,theabsurdityofitall
becomesbanal,boring,andtheplayers,trappedintheirroles,tireof
themasks.
#8
Vedomosti
April12,2016
Russiansseeparliamentashaving"symbolic"significance-pollsterchief
AlekseyLevinson,headoftheLevadaCentreSocialandCulturalStudies
Department,SocietySeesItselfOnlyasthe'Majority.'ForSucha
Society,theParliamentandPartiesHaveNoPracticalSignificance
LevadaCentreputseveralquestionstothefuturevotersabouttheir
attitudetopoliticalparties.Whatfollowsbelowisnotanelectoral
forecast,butadiscussionofwhatourpartysystemlookslikeinthe
eyesofRussiancitizens.
Onlyfivepartiesexistwhichoverhalfofvoterssaythey"know"(which
mostlikelymeans"recognize").TheseareUnitedRussia,theCPRF
[CommunistPartyoftheRussiaFederation],theLDPR[Liberal-Democratic
PartyofRussia],JustRussia,andYabloko.However,thereisa
differencebetweensuch"knowing"andareadinesstosupportaparty
withyourownvote.Thisdifferenceisseveral-foldevenforUnited
Russia,whileforotherpartiesitishuge.Itworksoutthatthe
citizenswillnotvoteforthemnotbecausetheydonotknowthem,but
actuallybecausetheydo.
Whatkindofparliamentdoweneed?Amultipartyone,onewithfew
parties,orjustaone-partyparliament?Only8percentofvotersare
infavourofaparliamentinwhich"amultitudeofrelativelysmall
parties"holdsittings.ADumawithonesoleparty(andwecanguess
whichone)wouldsuitone-fourthofRussiansperfectlywell.Butthe
followingopinionisthemostwidelyheld(45percent):Weneeda
systemof"twoorthreelargeparties."That,itwouldseem,iswhatthe
willoftheelectoratelookslike.Butenoughvotesfromthesesame
voterscannotbemusteredevenfortwolargeparties,nevermindthree.
UnitedRussiacanqualifyfortheterm"large,"andaround40percent
intendtosupportittoday,butthosewhoarepromisingtovoteforthe
CPRFandtheLDPRtogethercometolessthan20percent.
Ourpresentparliamentarismisacomplexphenomenon.Theexecutive,for
allitsinclinationforhegemony,undoubtedlyneedsaparliament.And
notonlyasadecoration,andnotonlyasa"printer."Yes,theDumais
notaplacefordiscussions,butithasreallybecomeoneofthe
platformswhere"issuesareresolved,"whereinterestscollideandfind
compromise.Theonlythingisthattheinterests--perceived,andthen
processed,havingobtainedtheirmouthpiece--bynomeansbelongtothe
"entirepeople,"northe"majority,"butonlytothe"minority,"such
as,inourcountry,businesses,corporations,andorganisations.There
isnothingunsoundinthis.Thetaskisthatallofsocietyshould
emergeasacomplexconglomerateof"minorities"--professional,
regional,social,andothers.Theirrepresentatives,throughthe
mediationofsomekindofpartysystem,wouldentertheparliamentto
coordinatetheirmostdiverseinterests.Letusnoteinpassingthat
thisinterweavingofminoritiesisstrongerandmoreviablethana
singlemonolithicmajority.Becausetheunityofthatisensuredbysome
kindofsingle,oneandonlyfactor,whereasinaconglomerateof
minoritiesthereisamultitudeoffactorsofinterdependenceand
connection.
Societycurrentlyseesitselfonlyasa"majority."Forsuchamajority,
whichhasnotmadesenseofitselfinternally,aparliamentandparties
arethingswithsymbolicratherthanpracticalsignificance.Thatiswhy
now(untilthetelevisionhasrousedthem)46percentstilldonothave
anymoreorlesssetdecisionsonparticipatingintheelections.And
thepublic'sexpectationsaboutwhethertheupcomingelectionsarea
"realfightforpowerandseatsintheDuma"orwhetherthis"willjust
beanimitationofafight,whilethedistributionofseatsintheDuma
willbedeterminedbytheauthorities'decision"aresplitexactly
half-and-half.
#9
MoscowTimes
April21,2016
MoreThanHalfofRussiansWantNewSovietState-Poll
MorethanhalfofRussianswouldliketoseetherestorationofthe
SovietUnion,accordingtoapollreleasedTuesday.
Although58percentofrespondentssaidtheywouldliketoseeanew
socialistsystem,only14percentbelievedthatitwaslikelytohappen,
thereportbytheindependentLevadacenterpollsterrevealed.
Thirty-onepercentofrespondentswereopposedtorestoringtheSoviet
Union,while10percentdidnotgiveanopinion.
Thenumbersshowlittlechangefromasimilarpollconductedadecade
ago,thepollsterreported.
ThenumberofRussianswhoregretthecollapseoftheSovietUnion-
currently56percent-remainsbelowtheall-timehighin2000when
PresidentVladimirPutincametopower.Atthetime,some75percentof
RussiansregrettedthefalloftheSovietUnion,accordingtoLevada
Centerpolls.
JustoverhalfofRussians,or51percent,thinktheSovietcollapse
couldhavebeenavoided,whileanother33percentbelieveitwas
inevitable,thelatestpollindicated.InMarch2000,thenumbersstood
at62percentand26percent,respectively.
ThelatestpollwasconductedattheendofMarchwith1,600adultsin
137citiesandtownsacrossRussia.
#10
Russians'ApproachtoPoliticsInconsistentandParadoxical,Sociologist
Says
PaulGoble
Staunton,April20-NewpollsshowingmorethanhalfofRussiansregret
thedemiseoftheUSSR
(vestikavkaza.ru/news/Bolee-poloviny-rossiyan-sozhaleyut-o-raspade-SSSR-opros.html)
andthat40percentofRussiansdonotbelievethestateismeetingits
obligationstothem(kasparov.ru/material.php?id=57172AB41357E)have
attractedagreatdealofattention.
ButathirdsurveyconductedbyIrinaVorobyovaoftheRussianState
HumanitiesUniversitymaybethemostimportantbecauseitfocuseson
theparadoxesandinternalinconsistencesoftheapproachofRussiansto
politics,politicalself-identification,andexpectations.
Herstudy,"ContradictionsandParadoxesofPoliticalOrientationsin
theStructureoftheWorldofRussians,"Sotsiologicheskiye
issledovaniya,no.1(2016),isavailableonlineat
socis.isras.ru/files/File/2016/2016_1/17_26_Vorobieva.pdfandhasjust
presentedindetailontheTolkovatelportalathttp://ttolk.ru/?p=26642.
Accordingtothesociologist,"only20percentofRussianstakean
activeinterestinpolitics,"butmuchlargersharesidentifyas
patriots,nationalistsorliberalist.Theusualexplanationforthis
divide,shesays,isthatRussians"delegate"politicstothe
governmentbutshereportsthatonly20percentbelievetheauthorities
arehonest.
Russians'interestinpoliticshasbeenfallingforageneration,
Vorobyovreports.In1987,54.4percentofRussianssaidtheywere
activelyinterestedinpoliticallife.Butby2013,thatfigurehad
fallento27.1andnowitisevenlower.Andoverthesameperiod,the
shareofthosewithnointerestinpoliticshasrisenalmost1200percent.
ThesociologistpointstoanotherparadoxinRussianviewsasexpressed
tosurveyresearchers.Ontheonehand,Russianvaluethedemocratic
rightsandfreedomstheyhaveacquiredbutontheother,"theyare
quiteskepticalabouttheinstitutionscalledtotransformdemocracy
intolife"andbelievethattheyneedastrongstatewithatoughleader.
AnotherparadoxVorobyovpointstoisthat"thepoliticalidentification
ofRussians"withthisorthattrend"doesnotalwaysdirectly
correspondtotheirelectoralchoices."Shearguesthatthisreflects
anincreasingdesireofRussianstosupportacenterasinthecentral
powerandthecenterofthespectrum.
YetanotherparadoxamongRussiansaboutpoliticsisthat"thehigh
levelofsupportforthepowersthatbe"iscombinedwithanequally
highlevelofalienationfromthestate,"alackoftrustinthe
majorityofgovernmentinstitutions,"andtheconvictionofthemajority
thatthestatedoesnotservetheirinterests.
Vorobyovconcludesthatthisleadstoasituationinwhich"the
populationsupportstheauthorities"notbecausethelattermeettheir
needsbutbecausethepopulationisafraidofchangesandthe
possibilitythathoweverbadthingsare,theycouldasaresultofany
changegetworse.
Thesociologistconcludesthat"inRussiansocietythereexistsmassive
supportfortheauthoritiesalongsidealowleveloftrustinspecific
governmentinstitutionsandasensethattheauthoritiesdonotsupport
ordinarypeople"andthat"thedesiretohavedemocraticrightsand
freedomsexistsinparallelwithsupportforastrongstate,afirm
hand,andpaternalism."
Itislikelythattheseparadoxes,whichreflectaspecificnationalset
ofexperiences,explainmanyoftheotherpollresultsoftencitied,
includingthosewhichappeartorepresentradicalbreakswithearlier
positionsbutinfactsimplymirrorthedivisionsandcontradictions
withinRussianminds.
#11
Politkom.ru
April6,2016
MostRussiansnotinterestedingettingtruepictureofworld-analysis
YelenaPozdnyakova,FlightfromDiversity:HowRussiansConsumeInformation
Despitealltherestrictions,theRussianinformationarenaremains
quitepluralistic,somethingthattheproliferationoftheInternetin
thecountryisfacilitating.However,Russiansocietyisfarfromfully
usingthispotential.Andworldpracticehasnotmovedforwardmuchin
thissenseeither.WehaveanalysedtheRussianmediaspaceandthe
informationpracticesofRussiansociety,andhavereachedconclusions
thatarenotthatoptimistic.
Sometimesinarticlesbycommentatorsandsociologiststheideais
automaticallyacceptedthatlearningthenews"fromthetelevision"is
thelotofthe"socialperiphery",whichisundiscriminatinginits
choiceofsources,andthe"graymasses"whoareremotefromany
progressiveideas.InRussiathisispartlytrue,despitethecontinuing
penetrationoftheInternetintotheeverydaylivesofRussiansandthe
presenceofothertypesofmedia:insmalltowns,televisionistheonly
windowontotheworld.Ontheotherhand,unbiaseddatashowthat
televisionisalsothemainsourceofinformationforthe"social
centre":peoplewhoprefertoreceivetheirnewsfromthetelevision,
themajority.Moreover,therearealmostasmanyoftheminEuropeas
well.Atthesametime,confidenceintelevisionandothermedia,
informationhabitsetc-allofthisdetermineshowpeopleinterpret
information.Thatiswhyitisextremelyinterestingtoexamine
Russians'attitudestowardsthemediabasedonstatisticsandopinionpolls.
OnlyRussiansbelongingtoastatisticallyinsignificantminoritycan
makethetruthfulstatement"Idonotwatchtelevision"or"Idonot
haveatelevision",accordingtodatafrombothLevada-CentreandTNS
andNielsen:inonewayoranother,anabsolutemajorityofourfellow
countrymenwatchtelevision.AccordingtodatafromLevada-Centre
obtainedinMarch2014(thereportRussianMediaLandscape:Television,
Press,Internet),90percentofRussiansnamedtelevisionastheirmain
(mostfrequent)sourceforobtainingnewsinthecountryandinthe
world.AboutaquarterofRussiansjustasfrequentlylearntnewsfrom
thosearoundthemandfromtheInternet(inMoscowtheshareofthese
meansofobtaininginformationissubstantiallyhigher-47percentand
42percentrespectively).Newspapers,radio,andthesocialnetworks
areusedbyfewerthanone-fifthofRussiansforobtainingthelatest
news,andmagazinesarereadbyjustfivepercent.Theresultsobtained
byNielsenforRussiaweresomewhatdifferent(TheNielsenGlobal
GenerationalAttitudesReport,2015):accordingtothesedata,just61
percentofRussianslearnthenewsfromtelevisionwhiletheshareof
"virtual"socialcommunicationsinformingapictureoftheworldis
muchhigherthanunderLevada'sdata:almost40percentofcitizens
learnthenewsfromfriendsandthesocialnetworks.Another46percent
usesearchenginesforthis.
Onthewhole,Nielsen'sdataareverysimilar(exceptforthefigureson
television)totheLevada-CentredataforMoscow.Atthesametime,
Russianresearcherspointtothefactthatinthebigcitiesa
significantnumberofcitizensseektodiversifytheirsourcesof
information.The"socialcentre"oftenusesthreeormorenewssources,
whilethe"socialperiphery"usesoneortwo,butthisperiphery
comprisesmorethan70percentofcitizensand55percentofthem
almostexclusivelywatchtelevision.Evenamongthosewhohavehigher
education,highconsumerstatus,usetheInternet,ordonotapproveof
theregime'sactivities,atleastthree-quarterswatchthenewsonTV.
Peoplebusywiththeirowndailylivesdonothavethetimetostudy
othersourcesintheirsearchofnews,andthismeansthatnewsdoesnot
haveahighvalueandtakesplaceinaworldremotefromtheir
interests.Thegapbetweenthenumberofpeoplewholearnnewsfromthe
televisionandtheproportionofthosewhousesocialnetworkstoobtain
informationshowsthatasignificantproportionofRussiansdonot
discussthestateofaffairsinthecountryandtheworldwiththose
aroundthem.
However,itwouldbeamistaketothinkthatthespreadofInternet
mediaandthediversificationofsourcesofinformationwillreducetoa
minimumtheexclusiveinfluenceoftelevisiononthemindsofourfellow
citizenswithinashortperiodoftime.Televisionremainsanimportant
sourceofinformationaboutthecountryandtheworldfor55percentof
Europeans(Nielsen'sdata).Amongtheoldergenerations(startingwith
generationX-35-49yearolds),thisfigureapproachesthenationalone
andexceedsit,butevenamonggenerationZ(upto20yearsold),half
watchtelevision.Admittedly,Europeansinallagecohortsareactively
diversifyingtheirsourcesofinformation,soalargegroupofpeople
learningnewsfromonlyonesourceisformedalmostnowhere.Andof
course,theInternetintheformofsearchenginesthatassemble
headlines,andintheformofon-lineversionsofthetraditionalmedia,
andintheformofthesocialnetworks,hasbecomefirmlyestablishedin
theinformationhabitsofEuropeans,particularlyofyoungpeople.The
disappearingformatforpresentingnewsis,asmightbeexpected,the
printedpress:attentiontoitamongtheagecohortsdecreasesasage
decreases.
Intheory,bydiversifyingsources,eachperson,likeacompetent
investor,isreducingrisks-inthiscasetherisksofdisinformation,
manipulation,andexternalinfluenceontheperson'sopinion.However,
judgingbyfurtheranalysis,fortheformationofanindependentand
moreorlessobjectiveopinionbytheconsumerofinformation,whatis
importantistheinitialhabitofworkingwithdifferentsources,a
greatdesiretounderstandtheagenda,andanunderstandingthatany
sourcescanbebiasedinonewayoranother.Otherwise,despitethe
extensiveopportunitiesforusingvariousmeansofobtaining
information,theindividualwill"adjust"theminsuchawaythatthe
spreadofpositionsinthemisminimal-tominimizetheirown
discomfortandeffortsto"digest"theinformation.Russiansareatthe
momentalongwayfromobjectivity,astheLevadaresearchshows:by
choosingoneortwosourcesofinformation,amongwhichtelevisionis
themostsignificant,citizenscondemnthemselvestodisinformation-
bothintermsofthestyleofthepresentationofthenewsandinterms
ofitsselection.Itisworthnotingthatwithsuchanapproachto
creatinganinformationpictureoftheworldbyeachcitizen,evenif
themediaweredependentnotonthestatebutonotherplayers(for
example,bigbusiness),citizenswouldstillnotbeabletoformamore
appropriatenotionofreality.
Insituationswherethemediadependontheregime,theemergenceofnew
waysofconveyinginformationtotheconsumeralongsidealowlevelof
interestamongcitizensthemselvesineventsinthecountryandthe
worldalsomeansanincreaseinopportunitiesfortheideologizationand
politicizationofthepopulation.Growingtiredoftheabundanceofnews
(orsimplynotinterestedinthe"outsideworld),peopleprefertobe
entertained,butifnotapoliticalthenattheveryleastavalue-based
connotationcanbegiventoanyentertainment.Thiscanbeclearlyseen
fromtheexampleofHollywood(thehighvalueloadoffilmsforthemass
audience)andtheexampleofRussiantelevisionprogrammes-for
example,theideological"transformation"ofKVN.
Television:Informationhegemon
AccordingtoLevada-Centredata,theadvantagesoftelevisionoverother
channelsforobtainingnewsaregraduallybeingreducedforRussiaifwe
lookatthelongterm.Thus,inarecentarticleforSlon.ru,the
centre'sdirector,LevGudkov,presentsthisinformation:in2009,94
percentofthosepollednamedtelevisionastheirmainsourceof
information,in2015-85percent,andthisisalongsideamajor
reductioninconfidenceintelevision.Admittedly,forthesakeof
fairnessitshouldbenotedthatconfidencealsofellinothersources
ofinformation,soTVwasstilltheleader.
Inanycase,thereareanumberofreasonsfortelevision'ssuccessasa
sourceofnewsinRussiaandinEurope.Amongthemisthefactorofthe
lackofneedforanyefforttoobtaininformation,whichisensuredby
itsclarity(thankstotheuseofbothaudioandvideoandtextualand
graphicinformation).Televisionnewsisalsoexceptionallyconvenient
becausesuchinformationcanbeconsumedwhiledoingotherthingsin
parallel.Thus,accordingtoNielsen'sdata,Russiansaloneandinthe
familycircleprefertodinewhilewatchingtelevisionprogrammes.
Asmightbeexpected,thestatechannelsarethemostpopularamong
Russians.AccordingtodatafromLevada-Centre(forJune2014),82per
centofRussianswatchednewsonFirstChannelmoreorlessregularly,
71percentonRussia-1,andfollowingthembyalargemarginNTV:48
percent.Russians'verylowlevelofinterestinreginalandlocal
television(around13percent)issignificant:apparently,itis
possibletoobtainthemainnewsatalocallevelthroughthe
"grapevine",theperceptionofregionalchannelsas"amateurish"by
comparisonwiththefederalonesissignificant,andinadditionthe
factorofquitealowlevelofinterestinthelocalagendaalsoexists.
ManyresearchershavenotedtherapidincreaseinRussians'interestin
televisionnewssincetheeventsinUkrainebut,surprisingly,themain
beneficiaryofthisprocessturnedouttobethechannelRussia-24:
twiceasmanycitizensthaninOctober2012startedtowatchitandthe
channeltookastrongfourthplaceinthespectrumofRussians'
preferences.FirstChannelandRussia-1alsowonanadditionalaudience
althoughonalesserscale.Butalltheeventsintheinformation
pictureshadnoinfluenceonNTV:itsaudiencedidnotchangeatall,
andthesamethingwasobservedwithRen-TV.Thesechannelsfirmly
occupiedtheirniches,andtheyarenotattractingnewviewersofnews
programmes.
Moreover,itispossibletocomparethetimeonairthatnewsprogrammes
occupyonthechannels.IfweignoreRussia-24,aspecialchannelwhere
anyonewhosodesirescanlearnthenewsatanytimeduringtheday,
thenthenextchannelprovidingthemaximumamountoftimetonews
programmeseverydaywillbeRussia-1.Admittedly,itneedstobetaken
intoaccountthatthischannelgivessomeairtimetoregionalandlocal
newsprogrammes.Nevertheless,viewersofthefederalchannelhavean
opportunityeverydaytogetinvolvedinpoliticalanalysisandon
Sundaytheycanenjoyitforasmuchastwo-and-a-halfhours-longer
thanonotherchannels.Russia-1'scompetitorshaveaboutthesame
amountoftime-betweentwo-and-a-halfandalmostthreehoursonairis
takenupbynews(i.e.atleast10percentofairtime).Theyalso
competeonanequalbasisintheproductionofanalyticalprogrammes-
thosethathelpcitizens"tocorrectlyinterpret"thenews.
Itispossibletotraceratingsfornewsandanalyticalprogrammeson
RussianchannelsfromdataprovidedbytheTNScompany.Onthewhole,
thesphereforratingtelevisioninRussiaturnedouttobethefield
foranumberofrowslinkedtothestrivingofthebigplayersonthe
televisionmarket(firstchannel,VGTRK,theGazprom-Mediaholding
company,theNationalMediaGroup,andSTS-Media[CTCMedia])tolimit
TNS'smonopolyonresearch.FirstChannelevenlauncheditsownproject
toevaluateratings,butitabandonedtheidea.Therewerealsoattempts
toinviteotherlargecompaniesforevaluation,andaccusationsof
unscrupulousnessagainstthemonopoly-holder.Theproblemisthe
difficultyofmeasuringtheaudience,andtheneedtomakelarge
investmentsinequipment.
Nevertheless,theinternationalcompanyisstillcontinuingtostudythe
audienceoftheRussiantelevisionchannels,whileadmittedly
restrictingitselftotheurbanpopulation(intownsofover100,000
people)andnotcountingchildrenuptofouryearsofage.Information
programmesfirmlyoccupytopplacesintheweeklysurveysandareinthe
topthreeofthechannel'smostpopularprogrammes.Thus,inDecember
2015newsandanalyticalprogrammesonTelevisionFirstChanneland
Russia-1werepresentinthe10mostpopularprogrammeswithratingsof
6-8percent(theshareofthosewhowatchedtheprogrammeoftheentire
targetaudience,which,ifweusedatafromthe2010census,comprises
around70millionpeople).Thismeansthataccordingtoroughestimates,
themostpopularnewsprogrammesarewatchedsimultaneouslybybetween
fourandsixmillionpeople.Itseemsthatthisisnotthatmany,
especiallyifyouimaginethescaleofthecountry.Forexample,the
Metronewspaperislookedatbynearlytwomillionpeopleaday,and
morethan20millionvisiteitherYandexorMail.ru.Buttelevision's
strengthisitsaround-the-clockbroadcastingandtherelativediversity
ofchannels,soeffectivelynewsonTVsucceedsduetothenumberof
broadcasts.
Theillusionofdiversityisalsosupportedbythechannelsthemselves
whochooseslightlydifferentstylesforpresentingnewsmaterial,not
tomentiontheobviousspecializationsoftheindividualchannels:the
"distortions"ofNTVandRen-TVserveasthebasisformanyjokes.But
therearenodifferencesintheessentialapproachtonewsandvalues
thatthestatechannels"promote",whichleavestheRussiancitizenwith
asinglepossibleinterpretationofwhatishappening.Initselfthis
hasanegativeeffectoninterestinthenewsagenda,whichisnotthat
greatanyway:peopledonottakeinthenewsthatisreallyimportant
fortheirlives(forexample,fromthesphereoffinancialregulationor
concerninglocalproblems),nottomentionpoliticalandforeignpolicy
problems.Viewingtelevisionnewsprogrammesisnolongersomuchaway
oflearningwhatishappeninginthecountryandtheworldasaritual,
aroutinepastime.
Internet:"Kitties"versuscivilposition
TheInternet,despiteasignificantproportionofhouseholdshaving
accesstoit(accordingtodatafromJ'son&PartnersConsulting29.7
millionhouseholdshadbroadbandaccesstotheInternetatthestartof
2015,andbytheendof2015thenumberofusers,ascalculatedbythe
GfKagency,comprised84million),isnotthemainsourceofinformation
abouttheworldandparticularlythemainsourceofnews.Atthesame
time,thehabitofusingtheInternetindailylifeisgraduallytaking
root,whichmakesthiscommunicationchannelthemainrivalfor
traditionaltelevisioninthelong-term.
ItisobviousthatRussiansusetheInternetdifferently.Thus,GfK
citesinformationthatamongRussiansbetweentheagesof16and29,97
percentusetheInternet-foryoungpeopleeveninsmalltownsithas
becomecommonplace.Itsaudiencecanonlybeexpandednowbyexpanding
theaudienceintheolderagegroupsandthis,ofcourse,ismoredifficult.
AccordingtoTNSRussia,thenumberofRussiansaccessingthewebdaily
comprisesslightlymorethan60percent.Butdataiscitedonlyfor
townswithpopulationsofatleast100,000andalsoamongthe12-54age
group.Accordingtodatafromthe2010census,theanalysiscallson
around40-45percentofthecitizensofRussia-thegroupofthemost
activeageandlivingincomparatively"civilized"conditions.Itwould
belogicaltoassumethattheremainingcitizensdonothavedaily
accesstotheweband,consequently,areunlikelytousetheInternetas
theirmainsourceofnews.Ifweweretoestimatetheproportionof
Russia'sgeneralpopulationaccessingtheInterneteveryday(andthe
estimateisveryrough),thentheywouldmakeuparoundone-thirdof
Russia'spopulationorabout50millionpeople.
Whatdothesenotional30percentluckypeopledoontheweb?A
significantnumberofthesepeoplefirstchecktheirmailonpopular
platforms:Yandex(27.75million),Mail.ru(22.63million),Google
(almost14million)asofDecember2015,theyoccupyfirst,secondand
fourthplacerespectivelyintheratingofvisitstoresources,
accordingtoTNSRussiadata.ThemainRussiansocialnetworkVKontakte
isinthirdplace.Itisvisitedbymorethan22millionoftheRussians
whoopenbrowserseveryday.ThepopularityofforeignFacebook,which
iswidelyseenasapoliticalplatform,issubstantiallylower-itis
openedeverydaybyapproximatelyjustthreepercentofthepopulation
-4.329millionpeople,evenfewerareinterestedinTwitter,fewerthan
one-and-a-halfmillionpeoplevisititeveryday.Thepopularityof
blogsontheLiveJournalsitehasnotyetwanedentirely:1.777million
peopleopenLiveJournaladay.Itturnsoutthattherearemore
connoisseursof"longreads"inRussiathanthosewhoprefershort
"tweets",andthereareevenmorewhoprefertolookat"photos"on
Instagram(thereare1.684millionofthem).
Thefirstmediaoutletthatcouldbecalledtraditional-theRBK
website-isactuallybetweenLiveJournalandInstagram,in15thplace
intherankingofdailyvisits.TheRIANovostisiteisalsopresent
amongthetop20mostpopular,itterminatestheranking.Itisvisited
by1.262millionusersaday,thatislessthanonepercentof
Russians.However,despitethefactthatitlooksverymodestinterms
oftheshareofvisits,thepopularresourcesontheInternetarereally
popularinabsolutefigures.Thus,Yandexastheleaderisaccessedby
morethan27millionpeopleaday,43.5millionaweek,and52.5million
peopleamonth-effectivelymorethanone-thirdoftheentire
populationofRussia.
TheYandexcompanyalsocarriesoutresearchintotheInternetaudience,
theresultsofwhichareofexceptionalinterestfromthepointofview
ofaportraitofInternetusers.Thus,thecompany'sstatisticsconfirm
theopinionthatuserschoosecertaingroupsofresourcesandrarely
readresourcesfromothergroups:theymanagedtomakeaclear
distinctionbetweentheaudiencesofthewebsitesofthetelevision
channels,bignewsagenciesetc,andtheaudiencesofthebusinesspress
andpublicationsforprofessionals(incidentally,RIANovostifallsinto
thefirstgroup,andRBKintothesecond).Agroupoffansofonline
publicationsofaliberalpersuasionemergedandalsoagroupofreaders
ofdailynewspapers,orrathertheirInternetversions.Finally,and
thisisinteresting,FirstChanneldidnotfallintothegroupthat
containedtheremainingtelevisionchannelsbutratherintoagroup
whereinthetraditionalsenseprimarily"women's"publicationswere
concentrated(Internetmagazinesabout"thestars",runningahousehold,
abouthowtolookafterafamilyetc).Evidently,FirstChannel's
websiteisusednottoobtainnewsbuttowatchprogrammesbroadcastby
thechannelonline.Thus,itturnsoutthatthegroups'audiencesreally
donotoverlapandthismeansthatsocialdialogueisnotconductedvia
themedia,andthedifferentsocial(orideological)groupslivein
theirownseparateworlds.Thisisclearlyseenfromtheexampleof
Facebookwheretheuser'sfeedisbasedontheirpreferences,ultimately
sealingthemintoarangeofmoreorlessthesamepeople,thoughtsand
events.
Nevertheless,ahugenumberofpeople,astheTNSdatashow,startto
browsewebpagesbyvisitingthewebsitesofYandexorMail.ru.Itcan
beassumed,incidentally,thatpeoplewhovisitoneoftheseportalsdo
notvisittheother(ortheydososignificantlylessfrequently).The
totalnumberofuserswhovisitoneoftheportalseachdaycomprises
slightlymorethan50million(which,althoughitisveryrough,is
stillmoreorlessinlinewithpreviousestimatesofthenumberof
dailyusersoftheInternet.Bothportals,inadditiontohostingmail,
alsooffertheirvisitorsaselectionofnews(createdautomatically),
whichreflectsthenewsattractingthemostmediaattention.Therange
ofnewsofferedonitsfirstpagebyMail.ruissignificantlybroader
thanthatofYandex.
AccordingtoTNSdata,Yandex'shomepage(withthetopfivenewsitems)
isopenedeverydaybymorethan20millionpeopleandslightlymore
thansixmillionvisititsnews(andonaverageview3.5pages).While
visitsofMail.rulookmuchmoremodestagainstthisbackdrop:thehome
pageisopenedby14millionpeopleandthenewsbyjust3.8million.
Admittedly,onaverageavisitorofMail.ruviewsslightlymorecontent
(3.9pages).Soitisnotsurprisingthattheprinciplesforselecting
Yandex'stopnewsstorieshaverepeatedlycausedrowswithapolitical
contextwhenithasbeenactivelydiscussedonthewebwhether
Yandex.Novostineedstoberecognizedasamediaoutletandthe
correspondingliabilitybeestablishedfortheservice.Despite
scandalousexamples-intheviewofpatriotsandconservatives-of
Yandex.Novosti's"anti-Russian"attitudetowardsinformingRussiansand
alsoattentiontotheproblemonthepartofVladimirPutin,therowwas
hushedup-orcametonothingitself.Possiblybecausethenewsthat
appearsonthehomepageisnotofgreatinteresttoawideaudience,
despitetheattimesextremelyflamboyantheadlines.Admittedly,
deputiesfromtheCPRF[CommunistPartyoftheRussianFederation]and
JustRussiahaverecentlystartedtolobbyforrestrictionsfornews
aggregators.
However,itisnotatallnecessarytobeamediaoutletforanInternet
resourcetoattractattention,particularlywithquiteanarrow
audience,anexampleofwhichisdemonstratedbythesocialnetworks.
VKontakteisapopularsourceofinformationfortheyoungaudience-to
suchanextentthatperhapstheabsolutemajorityofpeopleagedbetween
12and30haveapageonthissocialnetwork-thatinfactthelackof
suchapagegivesrisetoquestions.DespitethefactthatFacebookis
farbehindthisnetworkintermsofthenumberofhitsaday,weekand
month,itisalsooneofthemostvisitedprojectsinRussia.
Foralongtimenow,informationinthesocialnetworksspreadsnotonly
fromusertouserbutalsoviapublicpageswherecontentiscreated
likeinthemoretraditionalmedia.Publicpagesalsogeneratememesand
transmitthemtogetherwiththenews,enrichingitwithnewnuancesand
meanings,andinthissensethenewsthattheyprovideisassimilated
verywellbytheiraudience.Itmakessensetopayattentiontothemost
replicatedcontent.
ThelistoftoppublicpagesonVKontakteincludesmainlyentertainment
pages:publicpagescontainingjokes,pictures,"lifeadvice",reviews
ofmoviesandmusic,recipes,etc.So,essentially,notasinglepublic
pagethatpublishesnews.Andwhiletheaudienceofsubscribersofthe
mostpopularentertainmentpublicpagesexceedseightmillionpeople,it
doesnotevenreachonemillionforthemostpopularnewspage.Atthe
sametimethesocialnetworksaresocialnetworksinordertoprovide
peoplewithasemblanceofpersonalcontactwithnewsmakers.Themost
popularmanonVkontakte-PremierDmitriyMedvedev-hasmorethantwo
millionsubscribers.Butotherpopularindividualshavenothingtodo
withnewsinitssocio-politicalcontext,soitshouldbeacknowledged
thatVKontaktedoesnotperformanyfunctioninthecapacityofanews
source.
Facebookseemstobeaimedatanaudiencethatismoreinterestedinthe
political-economicandsocialagenda.But,firstly,theactualsizeof
thisaudienceissignificantlysmallerthanVKontakte'sand,secondly,
inactualfactthisisnotquitetrue.Brandpagesenjoythegreatest
(andreallyhuge)popularityonthissocialnetwork.Infirstplaceis
NikeFootballRussia-accordingtodatafromfacebook.ksan.comasof
March2015thispagehadbeenlikedby36millionusersfromRussia.But
whataboutthemedia?Infirstplaceintermsofthenumberoflikesis
AdMe,previouslyaportalaboutdesignandadvertising,andnowitis
moreofalifestyleblog.Thispagehasmorethan1.5millionuserswho
seenewsfromitintheirfeed.Bywayofcomparison,thesamenumberof
peopleseeupdatesfromthebrandEvianinRussia(20thplaceamong
brands).AndinsecondplaceistheVesti.rupublication,almost1.4
millionsubscribers.Interestinthispage,accordingtothesamedata,
increasedverygradually,startingin2012,sotherecanbenoquestion
ofarapidsurgeininterestinthewakeoftheUkrainianeventsin
2014:about300,000peoplelikedthepageforthefirsttimebetween
January2014andJanuary2015,thisisevenslightlylessthanbetween
January2013andJanuary2014.ApartfromAdMeandVesti,thetop10
mediapagesonRussianFacebookalsoincludeRIANovosti,thetelevision
channelDozhd,Vedomosti,Lenta.ru,Gazeta.ru,FirstChannel,National
GeographicRussia,andNaukaIZhizn[ScienceandLife].The
representationofsocio-politicalmediainthislistisverysignificant
anditsideologicalorientationhintsatthepolarizationofpolitical
discourseonFacebook,justlikeinsocietyasawhole.Inaddition,
thisdataprovesthatdespitetheexistenceofallthemeansfor
monitoringthenewsonthesocialnetwork,onlyasmallproportionof
usersusethistool.
Infact,asalsointhedatacitedaboveontheuseofInternetmediato
obtaininformationasawhole.Russianshavesufficientaccessto
informationontheInternet,anditisnotonlyaquestionof
information"imposed"bythestatebutalsoofotheropinionsoneach
problem.Theyalsohaveanopportunitytodiscussanynews.However,
thisisbecomingthelotonlyofaminorityinterestedinthe
socio-politicalagenda,whilemostcitizensprefertousetheInternet
forentertainmentandseekinginformationfortheirownneeds.
DespitethefactthatWesterncountriesseemtoustobesignificantly
moredevelopedfromthepointofviewofopportunitiestoconsume
informationontheInternet,itcannotbesaidthatcitizensinEurope
onthewholeusetheseopportunitiesactively,atleastdefinitelynot
inallcountries.Eurostatcitesinterestingstatisticsthatareevena
bitshocking:theorganizationisobservingasectionofpeoplein
variouscountrieswhohavenevergoneontotheInternetunderany
circumstancesintheirentirelives.Peopleagedbetween16and74are
beingstudiedandthelatestdataisfor2015.Theindicatorstypicalof
NorwayandLuxembourgseem"appropriate"tous:oneandtwopercentof
thepopulationrespectively.InsuccessfulGermanytherearealready10
percentsuchpeople,inFranceitis11percent.InPoland,Lithuania,
PortugalandItalymorethanonequarterofthepopulationisnot
personallyfamiliarwiththeInternet.InBulgariaandRomaniathereare
aroundone-thirdsuchcitizens.AndinTurkey,whichalsogotintothe
Europeansample-44percent.
Less"shocking"butstillusefulinformationisprovidedbyEurostat
withregardtowhichcountriesofEuropehavethelargestproportionof
peoplewhousetheInternet"often":thatis,atleastonceaquarter.
FromthisindicatoritcanbeclearlyseenhowtheInternethasbecome
commonplaceforNorthernEuropebutforthesouthitisnotyetan
importantpartofeverydaylife.Thisislinkedbothtothelevelof
urbanization,andtothestructureoftheeconomy,andtoeconomic
development,andtoculturalcharacteristics.Atthesametime,the
broadspreadoftheInternetenablesoldcommunicationhabitstobe
changed.Thus,Eurostatcitesdataabouthowmanypeopleusethe
Internetinvariouscountriesforcommunicatingwiththestateand
municipalpowerbodies.TheScandinaviancountrieswheremorethan50
percentofcitizensinteractwiththegovernmentonline,aswellas
NorthernandWesternEuropewheretheInternetisusedasa
communicationschannelinbothdirectionsbybetween30and40percent,
areverydifferentinthisrespecttothesouthandeast,whichare
closertoRussiaintermsofthisfigure.Ifthegovernmentistobe
believed,thenumberofcitizensregisteredontheGosuslugportalis
approaching14percent.Approximatelythesameproportionas
communicateswiththestateviatheInternetinGreece,Croatiaand
Bulgaria.TherateofgrowthintheInternetaudienceoftheGosuslug
portalisimpressivesincewewillovertakeItaly,Poland,Lithuania,
andPortugalwithregardtothisfigureinthenextfewyears.Thereis
alsoanoutsiderintermsofthisindicatorintheEU-Romania,where
onlysevenpercentofcitizenscommunicatewiththestateviatheInternet.
Nevertheless,interactingwiththestateviatheInternet,whichis
usualinthenorthofEurope,doesnotnecessarilymeanahighlevelof
interestinnewsalthoughthereisanecdotalevidencethatonlinenews
isattractingsignificantattentionamongtheaudience.Forexample,in
Germanyin2009abouthalfofallInternetusersstatedthattheyused
thewebtokeepupwithevents(datafromtheEuropeanJournalism
Centre).WhileinItalywhereInternetpenetrationisnotasmarkedas
intheNorth,thesituationin2009wasverysimilartotheRussianone:
thefirstfourplacesintherankingofpagevisitsweretakenbysearch
engines/mailservices/newsaggregators,andthentheInternetpageof
theLaRepubblicanewspaperwasinfifthplace.InNorway,oneofthe
countriesthatstartedtodeveloptheInternetearlierthanothers,by
2009theuseoftheworldwidewebtoobtainnewshadalreadyexceeded
figuresformediatypessuchasradioandnewspapers.
Printedpressandradio:Collectiveunconscious
Thesetypesofmediaarelogicallycombinedinasinglesectionsince
theyareintheprocessof"dyingout"aschannelsforobtainingnews.
Thisdoesnotmeanthattheyaregraduallyceasingtobeindemand,this
appliestoradioinparticular,buttheyareveryrarelyusedbypeople
forgettingacquaintedwiththeagenda.
Themassreadingofnewspapershasbecomeathingofthepast,andthis
hasbeenactivelyfacilitatedbythespreadoftheInternet.FromLevada
CentredatagatheredbetweenNovember2003andMarch2014,itcanbe
clearlyseenhowpeople'sinterestintheprintedpresshasfallen:the
numberofpeoplewhodonotreadnewspapersregularlyincreasedfrom59
percentto67percentandthenumberoffansofseveralpublications
almosthalved(to10percent).Typically,pollsinEuropeshowa
reductionininterestintheprintedpressfromgenerationto
generation,butinanumberofcountriestheprintedpressis
maintainingitsposition.ThusinGermany,accordingtodatafromthe
EuropeanJournalismCentre,interestintheprintedpresshasbeen
retainedandcitizensreadlocalandregionalpublicationsquiteoften.
Inprinciple,thestrongpresenceofregionalprintedmediainall
segmentsoffrequencyofpublicationisalsotypicaloftheRussianregions.
Whenchoosingwhattoreadfromnewspapersandmagazines,Russians
settleonpublicationswithbroad-basedtopics,moreoverthosethatmost
likelydonotincludepoliticalnews.Letuscomparetheratingsof
dailyandweeklynewspapersandmagazines:letustakedatathathas
beencollectedforRussiaasawholebythecompanyTNS.Thenumberof
newspaperreadersistheaveragenumberofreadersofasingleedition,
inthiscasetheaveragefortheperiodfromMaytoOctober2015.
Thedatashowedthatinthecaseofdailyandweeklynewspapers,
residentsofMoscowandStPetersburgmakeaverylargecontributionto
theaudience,andsometimestheproportionofreadersfromthetwo
capitalscomprisesmuchmorethanhalf.Thisisnotsurprisinginthe
situationwith,forexample,theMetronewspaper.Generallyspeaking,
thisnewspaperrepresentsagreatexampleofhowthemediahas
successfullyoccupieditsnichebyprovidingdiverseand"light"content
whenthereaderneedsthis.
RossiyskayaGazeta,whichisgenerallyspeakingamediaoutletofstate
importancebecauseoftheneedtopublishlegislativeacts,hasalmost
halfasmanyreaders.Weeklypublicationsarenotthatdifferentin
termsoftheirpopularityalthoughthegapbetweentheleader(Argumenty
iFakty)andthenumbertwo(KomsomolskayaPravda)ismorethana
quarterofthenumberofreadersofthelatter.
ItisworthnotingthatArgumentyiFaktyisapublicationthatfocusses
specificallyoncoveringsocio-politicalandeconomictopics,moreover
itkeepsthefocusonthepersonalconsequencesofthevariouseventsin
thecountryandtheworld.Thissame"genre"isalsoretainedinthe
paperversionofthenewspaper.Atthesametime,KomsomolskayaPravda
initsweeklyformatveryactivelyconcentratesonthe
political-economicagenda,whilethepaperweeklyversionhasmoreofan
entertainmentformat.Asaresult,KomsomolskayaPravdalosesthe
competitiontootherdailysuppliersofsocio-politicalnews(andfirst
andforemost,totelevision),andatthesametimecompetesinthe
entertainmentweeklysegmentwithsimilarpublications"witha
televisionguide".
Anotherinterestingphenomenonisthepresenceofthedailybusiness
newspaperKommersantintherankingofpublicationswiththelargest
audience.Kommersant'scompetitorsinthisnichearealongwaybehind.
Norarebusinessmagazinesandnewspaperspresenteitheramongthe
weekliesorthemonthlies.Thiscanbeexplained,meanwhile,notonlyby
readers'lackofinterestinananalysisofeventsbutalsobythefact
thatasignificantsectionoftheaudienceofthesepublicationsismore
usedtousingtheirInternetversion.
Whilethe"domination"ofentertainmentpublicationshasnotyet
completelysqueezedoutthesocio-politicalamongprintednewspapersand
magazines,thenamongtheradiostationsthisisalreadyafait
accompli.AccordingtoTNSdataforRussiaforthesecondhalfof2015,
theleadersintermsoftheaveragenumberoflistenerswere:Yevropa
Plyus,DorozhnoyeRadio,Avtoradio,RusskoyeRadio,andRetroFM.Allof
theseareexclusivelyentertainmentradiostations.Letuscomparetheir
audienceswiththoseofthesocio-politicalstations.Around11.325
millionpeoplelistentoYevropaPlyuseveryday.Mayak,RadioRussia
andVestiFMhavealmostthreetimesfewer,EkhoMoskvyfourtimes
fewer,andKomsomolskayaPravdaandBusinessFM10timesfewerormore.
EveninMoscow,despitethepresenceofEkhoMoskvy,theleadersinthe
firstfiveintermsoftheTNSdailyratings(fortheperiodof
October-December2015)werestillAvtoradio,RusskoyeRadio,Yevropa
Plyusand...RadioShanson.Allofthisconfirmsthepointthatradio
hasbecomeaspecificmediaoutletformotoristsandhascompletelylost
itspositionintheguiseofamediaoutletandhasturnedintoa
variantofamusicplaylist.Fromtimetotime,19percentof
Muscoviteslistentonewsonthemusicalradiostations-accordingto
datafromLevadaCenterforMarch2014.
Mainconclusions
Asthestatisticscitedaboveshow,theInternetisgraduallycatching
televisionup"intermsofviews",butbothnewssitesandradioand
printedpublicationsarestillalongwayfromthepopularityofnews
programmesonFirstChannelorRussia-1.Thesecretoftheirpopularity
ismostlikelynotthatcitizenslikethetopics,orstyle,orthe
presenterofthenewsbutthatviewingtelevisionontheirfavourite
channelsatacertaintimehasbecomeahabit.Inconnectionwiththis,
itcanbeassumedthatRussiansdonotpaythatmuchattentiontothe
contentofnewsprogrammes(withtheexception,ofcourse,ofthe
sensationalstories).
Atthesametime,personalcontactsplayaverybigroleasamechanism
forobtainingandinterpretinginformation:thediscussionofnewsin
thefamily,withfriends,acquaintancesandsoon.Thisisperhapsthe
simplestwayof"fencingoff"theirpictureoftheworldfrom
informationandopinionsthreatingtodestroythestereotypestheyhave
developed.Russiansminimizetheirinteractionwith"alien"information,
somethingthatcanbeseenveryclearlyfromtheexampleofvisitsto
newsresourcesontheInternet.Thewebdoesnotunitepeoplewith
differentviews,butjustemphasizestheirdifferences.
Moreover,thestatisticsfortheuseoftheInternetindicatethatnews
informationonlyinterestsacomparativelysmallnumberofcitizens-
andthisisdespitethefactthatInternetpublicationscurrently
possessgreaterfreedomofexpressionofanypositionthantelevision
does.Newshasnotbecomeaninanywaylarge-scalesubjectfor
discussiononthesocialnetworks(despitethefactthatasitseemsto
manyusersofFacebook:thisisjustinthefeedsofasmallgroupof
people)wherethereiseveryopportunitytocreatecontentand
relativelyfreeinterpretation.Themainsuppliersofnewsinthepast-
radioandtheprintedpress-havealmostcompletelylosttheir
importanceinthiscapacityhavingbecomemoreofareceptaclefor
entertainingcontent.Themainconclusionfromthis-thereisalackof
anyinterestamongtheoverwhelmingmajorityofpeopleinadetailed
studyofthenewsandobtainingatruepictureoftheworldonadaily
basis.
#12
www.opendemocracy.net
April21,2016
Russia'sregions:federalismanditsdiscontents
CreatingtheappearanceofstabilityistheRussianpoliticalelite's
primarygoal.Yetcolonial-likeruleoverthecountry'sregions,
combinedwithalackofcivicactivity,harmstheKremlin'slegitimacy
ontheground.
ByBadmaByurchiev
BadmaByurchievwasborninKalmykiain1973,andhasworkedasa
journalistsince2003.HecurrentlyworksforKavpolit,wherehecovers
DagestanandKalmykia.HehaspreviouslyworkedforBolshoyKavkazand
CaucasianKnot.
SinceVladimirPutin'srisetopowerin1999,theRussianauthorities
haverespondedtoanythreat,whetherrealorimagined,withrepressive
legislation.
Thehistoryofthepowerverticalisthusoneofthemethodical
restrictionofcitizen'srightsandfreedoms.
Meanwhile,Russia'sover-centralisedstateisincreasinglyisolating
itselffromthe"multinationalpeopleoftheRussianFederation",which
is,astheConstitutionstates,thesolesourceofauthorityinthecountry.
Thus,Russia'spoliticalelitesarenotonlylosingtheirso-called
"connectionwiththeland",buterodingpopularfaithintheelite's
legitimacyasrulers.
That'sbecauseinRussiatoday,relationsbetweenthecentreandthe
regionsarereminiscentmoreofanimperialmetropolisanditscolonies.
TheauthoritiesseeRussiaasanever-endingsourceofnaturalandhuman
resources.
Theelitesusurptheincomederivedfromtheseresourcesascolonisers:
themajorityofthepopulationarepaidenoughjusttosurvive.Andif
you'redissatisfied,there'salwaysanappropriatechargetobefoundin
theCriminalCode.
Self-determinationanddesecration
Theendof2015sawElista,thecapitalofKalmykia,hostacongressof
theKalmykianpeople.Forarepublicofthissize,thecongresswas
large.Butneithernationalmedia,northelocalofficialpresscovered
thiseventinanyway.
Perhapsthelackofcoveragewasamistake.
Theforum's200delegatesendedupvotingforaresolutionthatledwith
thedemandforanewconstitutionfortherepublic,onethatwould
reflectthe"inviolablerightoftheOirat-Kalmykpeopletodecidetheir
ownfate."Thisisimportant,becausewhenKalmykiafirstbecamea
subjectoftheRussianFederation,itslegislaturedidnotmention
self-determination-unlikethelegislaturesofothernationalrepublics
thatjoinedRussiaafterthefalloftheUSSR.
KalmykiareturnedtonationalnewsatthestartofApril2016whenan
athletefromneighbouringDagestanwasforcedtoapologisepubliclyfor
desecratingastatueoftheBuddha.
ThesestoriesrevealtheRussianmedia'spriorities.Russianviewers
findinterethnicconflictsfarmoreinterestingthanpeople'sattempts
toself-organiseanddefendtheirrights.
Theeventsthemselvesarealsorevealing.
TheKalmykpeople'scongressmayhavebeenrepresentative,butitwas
thesecondincident-whenanoffending"outsider"hadtobepunished-
thatturnedouttobemorepowerfulinbringingpeopletogether.
"Peopleonlyreacttostrong,directsourcesofdispleasure.However,
whenit'sacaseofotherimportantmatters,noonecomesoutto
protest,"aKalmykbloggercomplained,speakingofthelocal
population'spreference"tonotreacttotheauthoritiesatall"."After
all,youcanboilafrogaliveifyouraisethetemperatureinapan
slowly-itwon'tjumpout."
Theblogger'smetaphormightbeabitheavy-handed,butitreflectsthe
relationshipbetweenRussia'sauthoritiesandthepublicalltoowell.
Thereisonethingmissingfromthismetaphor,though:theabilityto
verygraduallyraisethetemperatureisagoodonetohaveifyou'rea
cook-butnotwhenyou'rerunningacountry.
Beneaththesurface
AweekbeforetheincidentinKalmykia'scapitalElista,IgorBarinov,
theheadofRussia'sFederalNationalitiesAgency(FADN),declaredthat
ethnicandreligioustensionsinthecountrywerelikelytoflareup.
AttheStateDuma'sQuestionTimeon23March,Barinovstatedthat,
"Nationalconflictsaredirectlyconnectedtoeconomicproblemsandthe
ineffectivenessoftheauthorities."
AccordingtoBarinov,certainregionsofRussiaareseeing"radicalised
religiousstructuresjoinwiththenon-systemicoppositiontocriticise
thestate".
"Forthemeantime,"Barinovsaid,"thiscriticismismainlyconnected
tosocialwelfareissues,housing,utilitiesandecology".Bythetime
theparliamentaryelectioncampaignstarts,though,thiscriticismwill
takeona"political,nationalandreligiousovertone",hewarned.
BarinovthuscalledonRussia'sregionsto"bereadytoreact
accordingly"andproposedlegislationforextrajudicialblockingof
websitesthat"donotformallycomeunderthedefinitionof'callsto
massdisorder',butthatfurtherescalateinterethnicandinterfaith
conflicts."
Thus,atoppublicofficialconfirmedthatpotentialmobilisationson
ethnicorreligiousgroundswillbedirectlyconnectedtoeconomic
problemsandthestate'slackofresponse-butchosetoampupRussia's
anti-extremismlegislationinsteadoftacklingtherootsoftheproblem.
Barinov'sactionplanisnotsurprising.Thestateisnotinvolvedin
solvingtheproblemsofhundredsofdifferentethnicgroupsinRussia.
Instead,theKremlinisbusycreatingtheappearanceofstability.In
particular,itiscreatingtherightconditionsforlocalauthoritiesto
deploythe"administrativeresources"atthisyear'selections,andthus
forestallanyunexpected(read:unpleasant)resultsforMoscow.
Barinovdoesn'thidethefactthatoneofhisministry'smaintasksis
to"buildapowerverticalintheregions".Indeed,theFADNbelieves
that"unifyingtheapproachtonationalityissuesinallregions"isan
importantstepinthisdirection.
Acolonisingpoliticalmentality
Itgoeswithoutsayingthat,intheseconditions,agenuinefederal
politicalstructurecannotexist.
AsarecentcourtdecisionfromKhanty-Mansiiskshows,theword
"federalisation"isnowbeingusedsynonymouslywith"stirringup
interfaithantagonism","changingthesystemof
administrative-territorialmanagement","separatism"and"subvertingthe
constitutionalorder".
Thefederalauthorities'colonisingmentalityisthusheavilyregulating
andevencriminalisinganysmallattemptsatself-determination.
InMarch,theMinistryofJusticedeclaredtheBataniFoundation,which
isdedicatedtosupportingindigenouspeoplesinRussia'snorth,Siberia
andtheFarEast,a"foreignagent".
AccordingtoPavelSulyandziga,Batani'schairman,therootofthe
conflictwiththebureaucracycomesdowntoindigenouspeoples'rights
totraditionalhuntinggrounds,fishingareasandterritoryforgrazing
theiranimals.
Suchconflictshaveledtoariseinthenumberofcriminalcasesopened
againstindigenouspeopleintheKhanty-Mansiautonomousregion.Rights
activistsstatethatmostresourcecompaniesprefernottonegotiate
withindigenousrepresentativesanymore,butactviathemostpowerful
stateministries.
NewsalongthisthemeregularlyappearsintheRussianpress.
Forexample-avillageleaderfromPrimorskykraireportedonthe
terriblesituationinRussia'sFarEastattheMoscowEconomicForumin
Marchofthisyear.
Adayafterthereport,newsbrokeofhowKursk'sregionalcouncil
publiclyobstructedOlgaLi,alocalcouncilwomanandnewspapereditor.
Li'ssharplycriticalvideoaddresstoPutin,whichwasdedicatedbyand
largetoregionalpolitics,hasnowresultedinacriminalcasefor
slander.
Nomassprotestsinsight
ButwhatisreallyhappeninginRussia'sregions?Canwetalkaboutany
signsofanti-colonialresistance?
Well,whileDumadeputieshavebeguntotalkaboutthepossibilityofa
"revolutionarysituation"inresponsetothegrowinggapbetween
Russia'srichandpoor,expertssuchasDenisVolkovandNatalia
Zubarevichagreethatwe'reunlikelytoseeanoutbreakofmassprotest
activityanytimesoon.
Withnationaltelevisionnetworksfirmlyundercontrol,theRussian
governmentismanagingtomaintainorder.Theoppositionisyettooffer
analternativeagendaonpoliticalorsocialissuesthatwouldattracta
significantsectionofthepopulation.Andtherisksassociatedwith
protestaresohigh,it'ssimplerjustadapttothefallingliving
standardsthanfightforabetterfuture.
Thatsaid,Zubarevich,theauthorofthe"FourRussias"concept,
believesthatRussia'sregionsare,byandlarge,conservative,anda
bulwarkofsupportforthecurrentregime.
ForZubarevich,theonlyexceptionsarethe"underdeveloped"regions
withamorevolatilepoliticalatmosphere,suchastheNorthCaucasus
andsouthernSiberia,wherepossiblefuturescenariosevenincludestate
violenceunleashedagainstthepopulace.
TheNorthCaucasus,inparticular,iswitnessingagrowingideological
dividebetweenstateandsociety,thoughregionalexpertsvaryintheir
estimationsofthethreatitmaypose.
AccordingtoNikolaiSilaevoftheCenteroftheProblemsofthe
CaucasusandRegionalSecurity,thethreatofnationalismdoesn'treally
workasatoolofpublicpoliticsinRussia.
"Thesingleideologicalbaseformovementsthatthreatenanopen
fragmentationofthestatecouldbecomepoliticalIslam,"writesSilaev.
However,hecontinuestosaythat"politicalIslamhasnorealistic
modelofthestateorclearspatialboundaries."Thiskindofpolitical
communitywillcometoformanetworked"parallelworld",onethatwill
bothfightthestateandtrytofindformsofintegration.
DenisSokolovislessoptimistic.Asheseesit,"theideologyofthe
secularstatehascompletelylosttoIslamintheeastoftheNorth
Caucasusduetoitsproblemswiththecourtsandsocialmobility".
Sokolovbelievesthat2016willsee"aconfrontationbetweenthe
securityservicesandasignificantnumberofMuslimslivinginthe
NorthCaucasusrisetothefore".
Societycompensatesforfailuresofthestate
SokolovisthefirstspecialistontheCaucasustoinvestigatethe
curiousnewsstoriescomingoutofDagestan.Here,jamaats(village
communities)havestartedtopaymedicalprofessionalstovisittheir
villagesattheirownexpense(asarule,thesevisitingdoctorsare
kinsmenwho'vebeenworkinginthebigcities.)Thisturnedouttobe
successful,andnowthispracticehasextendedtoteachingstaff.
Societyhasthusmadeheadwayinanareawherethestatehasfailedin
spiteofitsmulti-billionroubleprojects.Takingresponsibilityfor
theirowninfrastructure,villagershavesetupqualitymedicineand
educationforthemselves,atthesametimeaddressinganoftenemotional
issue-bringingbacktheirkintothemountains.
Ofcourse,we'retalkingaboutamaximumoftenvillageshere.Thisisa
localsuccessevenforDagestan.Butnothingisstoppingother
communitiesfromtryingthisout.
Still,themostimportantthinghereishowthisproblemisbeing
solved.Ifinvitingdoctorsisamatterofsurvival(itwaspromptedby
arisingdeathrate,includingofpatientsduringsimpleoperations),
thenfindinggoodteachersisasignalthateducationisindemand,an
investmentinlong-termdevelopment.
Anineffectivestatecanonlywelcometheseinitiatives-thestory
aboutDagestanwasshownonfederaltelevision.
Butifyoutakeintotheaccountthefactthatsecularideologyis
losingouttoIslaminDagestan,thenwecanassumethatsomething
biggerisbehindthesedevelopments.PerhapsitiswhatHannahArendt
describedastheelite'stemptationtosubstituteviolenceforpower
whenitbeginstoslipfromtheirgrasp.
Arendt'sdiagnosisisalltooreminiscentofthemodernRussian
Federation.Putin'sconceptsofthe"RussianWorld"andpatriotismas
theonlypossiblenationalideaarecloselyintertwinedwithhow
Russia'slawonseparatismandthelawonforeignagentsareapplied-
and,moreoftenthatnot,withanti-extremistandanti-terrorist
legislation.
Thewaytheyareappliedisevidenceofafull-blowncrisisinRussian
domesticpolicies.
Frustrationthatturnstoapathy
Socialmediaisanaptreflectionofthemoodofordinarypeople.Take
thisrecentquestionfromauserinaVKontaktegroupinKalmykia:"Can
youpointtoanypositiveresultsoftheheadofKalmykiaAlexeiOrlov,
who'sruledtherepublicforsixyearsnow?"
"Icanonlyseeone,"thesameuserstates,"Peopleintheregionsdon't
relyontheauthorities.Theysolvetheirproblemsthemselves."
Meanwhile,abloggerfromNorthOssetiaupdateshisstatus:"I'vehad
enough.Thehassle,intrigue,politics,money(anditsabsence),the
idiocyinsideandoutsidethesystem...Peoplehavehadtheirpriorities
wrongfortoolong."
Everyday,mynewsfeedisfullofthesekindsofposts.Apathyandthe
realisationthatyoucan'texpectanythingfromtheauthoritiesarethe
mainmotifsofdiscussionsonRussiasocialmedia.
Atthecoreofthissenseofemptiness,thisideologicalvacuumthat
becameobviousafterthefalloftheSovietUnion,liesnothingbuta
longingforthehomeland.Noonefeelsathomehere:neitherethnic
minorities,whoexperiencediscriminationduetotheirethnicity,nor
RussianSlavs,outragedatthecorruptionofpublicofficialsandthe
courtswillingtoaverttheirgazewhenso-called"peoplefromoutof
town"commitcrimes.
EmilPain,aprominentpoliticalscientistandethnographer,recently
spokeofRussiaas"acountrywithoutasociety,acountrywithouta
nation".
Yetthetransformationofapopulationintoanationisnotataskfor
thestate.Rulingelitesaremoreinterestedinsubjectsthancitizens.
Anationemergeswhenpeoplearereadytofightfortheirownrights.
It'seasierfornationalrepublicstoformacommonagendaonthis
issue.AlthoughthefactthatacongressofKalmykpeople,ratherthan
peoples,wasrecentlyheldsuggeststhattheideologyofethnic,rather
thancivicnationalism,iswhatbroughtpeopletogether.
MultiethnicDagestancould,inprinciple,overcomethesenarrowborders.
Whilelocalnationalismdividessociety,Islamoffersaplatformfor
consolidationinthefuture-toformthepoliticalnationofDagestan.
Butheretheauthoritieshavesuccessfullymaintainedtheartificial
confrontationbetween"traditional"and"non-traditional"Muslimsfora
longtime.
Inanover-centralisedpoliticalsystem,there'slittlepointtalkingof
society'schancetotakebackthestateinasingleregion.The
LeviathanthatisthestatewillreacttowhatArendtdescribedasthe
"slippingawayofpower"withanintensivebuild-upofthepower
ministries,whichremaincapableenoughtopreventanyattemptto
monopolisethecentre.
GiventhatPutin'snewNationalGuardissubordinateonlytotheheadof
state,wecanseehowtheverticalseesthesolutiontothenational
question.
Butistheresomethingthatwillpromptthepopulationtofightfor
theirrightsandthuscreateanationalongalternative,democratic
lines?LiahGreenfield,ascholarofnationalisms,believesthatanew
eliteisneededforthiskindoffuture-anelitethatwillfightnot
foritsownpower,butforthepeople'srespect,giventheconnection
betweenindividualdignityandnationalidentity
Unfortunately,astheKalmykpeople'scongressinElistashows,people
arealwaysreadyto"forceotherstorespectthem"onalocallevel,but
arefarlessreadytodefendtheirdignitywhenitcomestothe
arbitraryruleofpublicofficialsandlawenforcement.
Intoday'sRussia,it'smorerealistictowaitforthestatetoreach
thefinalstageofexhaustionandletpowerslipfromitsgrasp.Of
course,thenwe'llhavetodealwiththesamequestions:youcan'tbuild
anationwithoutcivicactivity.
#13
TheNewYorkReviewofBooks
April19,2016
Trump'sPutinFantasy
ByTimothySnyder
TimothySnyderistheHousumProfessorofHistoryatYale.
FewforeignleadersseementhusiasticabouttheprospectofaDonald
Trumppresidency.Butthereisonewhoshouldbepleased:Vladimir
Putin.OrsoTrumpseemstothink.MostprominentRepublicanscriticize
PresidentObamaforreactingtoofeeblytoRussiandomesticoppression,
theRussianinvasionofsouthernandsoutheasternUkraine,andRussia's
growingthreattoNATOinEasternEurope.Trump,ontheotherhand,has
praisedPutin's"strong"leadershipathome,calledNATO"obsoleteand
expensive,"andmadeapointofdescribinghisfriendshipwith
Putin-thoughitseemstobeentirelyimaginary.
Fromthebeginningofhiscandidacylastsummer,Trumphasrepeatedly
claimedthathewould"getalongverywellwithVladimirPutin."Last
fall,afterhewasinterviewedonthesamesegmentof60Minutesas
Putin,hewarmlyreferredtotheexperienceofbeing"stablemates"as
"goingwell."Thiswasstrikinglyatoddswithreality,sinceTrumpwas
intheUSandPutininRussiaduringtheinterviews,andthetwomendid
notinfactmeet.
Moreextraordinarystill,Trumphasindicated,inhisselectionlast
monthofCarterPageasaforeignpolicyadviser,thatAmericanpolicy
toEuropewillbeguidedbyRussianinterests.Page,heretoforeknownas
anadvisertoRussia'sstategascompany,hasbeenamongtheprominent
AmericansspreadingRussianpropagandaaboutUkraine'srevolutionin
2014andtheRussianinvasionthatfollowed.Inhiswritingshehas
questionedUkraine'sstatusasanindependentstate,whichisprecisely
thelinethatMoscowtooktojustifyitsinvasion.He
maintains-preposterously-thatUkraineislikeQuebecinsideaRussia
thatislikeCanada.QuebecisaprovinceandUkraineisacountry.He
hasreferredtoRussia'sannexationofUkraine'sCrimeanpeninsula,a
signalviolationofinternationallaw,asthe"so-calledannexation."
ItisnothardtoseewhyTrumpmightchoosePutinashisfantasy
friend.PutinistherealworldversionofthepersonTrumppretendsto
beontelevision.Trump'sfinancialsuccess(suchasitis)hasbeenas
aNewYorkrealestatespeculator,aworldofprivatedeal-makingthat
canseemroughandtough-untilyoucompareittotheRussiaofthe1990s
thatultimatelyproducedthePutinregime.Trumppresentshimselfasthe
makerofafinancialempirewhoiswillingtobreakalltherules,
whereasthatiswhatPutininfactis.ThusfarTrumpcanonlyverbally
abusehisopponentsatrallies,whereasPutin'sopponentsare
assassinated.ThusfarTrumpcanonlyhavehiscampaignmanagerroughup
journalistshedoesn'tlike.InRussiasomeofthebestjournalistsare
infactmurdered.
PresidentPutin,whoisanintelligentandpenetratingjudgeofmen,
especiallymenwithmasculinityissues,hasquicklydrawnthecorrect
conclusion.Inthepasthehasdonewellforhimselfbyrecruitingamong
politicianswhoexhibitgreatervanitythandecency,suchasSilvio
BerlusconiandGerhardSchrder.ThepremiseofRussianforeignpolicy
totheWestisthattheruleoflawisonebigjokethepracticeof
RussianforeignpolicyistofindprominentpeopleintheWestwho
agree.MoscowhasfoundsuchpeoplethroughoutEuropeuntiltheriseof
TrumptheideaofanAmericanwhowouldvolunteertobeaKremlinclient
wouldhaveseemedunlikely.Trumprepresentsanunprecedentedstandard
ofAmericanservility,andshouldthereforebecultivatedasafuture
Russianclient.
TrumpcorrectlysaysthatPutinrespectsstrength.ButofcoursePutin
prefersweakness,whichiswhatTrumpoffers.AsPutinunderstands
perfectlywell,thepresidentoftheUnitedStateshasstandingin
Russia,andenjoysfarsuperiorpowertothepresidentofRussia,only
insofarasheorshemobilizesthemoralandpoliticalresourcesofa
rule-of-lawstate.ItispreciselyTrump'sposeofstrengththatreveals
hiscrucialvulnerability.AsanyonefamiliarwithRussianpolitics
understands,anAmericanpresidentwhoshunsallianceswithfellow
democracies,praisesdictators,andprefers"deals"totheruleoflaw
wouldbeaveryeasymarkinMoscow.ItisunclearhowmuchmoneyTrump
has,butitisnotenoughtomatterinRussia.Ifhekeepsuphispose
asthetoughbillionaire,hewillbeflatteredbytheRussianmedia,
scornedbythosewhomatterinRussia,andtheneasilycrushedbymen
farricherandsmarterthanhe.
PutinhasbeenaccordinglycircumspectinhisreturnofTrump'swooing.
ForhimTrumpisasmallmanwhomightgaingreatpower.Thetrickisto
manipulatethesmallmanandtherebyneutralizethegreatpower.Inhis
annualpressconferencelastDecember,afterhearingsixmonthsof
praisefromTrump,PutinsaidthathewelcomedTrump'sideaofplacing
US-Russianrelationsonamoresolidbasis,andcharacterizedTrumpas
"flamboyant,talented,withoutadoubt."Itishardtomissthe
ambiguityof"flamboyant,"butTrumpchosetomissit.
ThenextdayTrumpseemedpleased.Perhapshavingbeenmisadvisedabout
whatPutinactuallysaid,Trumpsaidthat,"Whenpeoplecallyou
brilliantit'salwaysgood."Aftersuggestingthatkillingjournalists
wasnormal,heconcludedwarmlythat"I'vealwaysfeltfineaboutPutin,
Ithinkthat,youknow,he'sastrongleader,he'sapowerfulleader,
he'srepresentedhiscountry."Notlongafterthat,TrumpdefendedPutin
fromtheofficialBritishinquiryintotheassassinationofAlexander
Litvinenko.Trump'sreasoningwasthatPutin"saidhedidn'tdoit."In
MarchTrumpsaidthatPutinwasastrongerleaderthanthepresidentof
theUnitedStates.ForacrumbofpraisefromPutin,Trumphaspresented
criminalityasnormalandsoldouthisownheadofstate.
LetusimaginethefirstfewweeksofaTrumpadministration.Mostof
hisdomesticagendawillquicklyproveillegal,oratleastvery
complicatedtoimplement.Heisnotamanwhohasdisplayedmuch
patienceformanagement.Itseemsverylikelythathewouldquicklyturn
abroadforthatsurgeofapprovalthatheseemstofindsopleasurable.
Andtherewouldbenoeasierwaytogainsuchafeelingthancurrying
favorwithPutin.Itissomucheasiertoignoretraditionalalliesthan
tocultivatethem,andsomucheasiertoignoreaggressionthanto
maintainorder.ThelouchestylethatTrumpseemslikelytobringto
Americanforeignpolicyisallhewillneedtogarnerpraisefromthe
manheadmires.GivenwhatTrumphasdonethusfar,undernostressand
withlittleencouragement,itisterrifyingtocontemplatewhathewould
doasafrustratedAmericanpresidentlookingforlove.
EvenasPutincarefullycultivatesafutureclient,theRussian
population(aloneinthedevelopedworld)prefersTrumptoClinton,and
Russianelitesrevealtheirexcitementattheprospectofatame
America.Itisunusual,ofcourse,forRussianorotherpublicfigures
totakesidesinAmericanelections.Prudenceusuallyoverrides
preferenceeventhemostwillfulauthoritariansandmediafigures
usuallyhedgetheirbets,knowingthatendorsingalosingcandidatecan
bringeightyearsofbadluckwhileendorsingtheeventualwinnermay
bringverylittle.Inthisparticularelectioncycle,however,Russian
politiciansareinanunusualsituation.HillaryClintonhasbeenthe
targetofsuchcriticismfromRussiaanditscurrentpresidentthatit
isimpossibletocreatetheimpressionofevenhandedness.InDecember
2011,VladimirPutinpersonally(andabsurdly)blamedClinton,thenUS
secretaryofstate,forgivinga"signal"thatpromptedRussiansto
protestfakedparliamentaryelections.
Onceliberatedfromthenormalrulesofthegame,Russianpoliticians
havebeenabletogivevoicetowhatseemslikeheartfeltsympathyfor
Trump.VasilyLikhachev,aCommunistintheRussianparliament,
explicitlyexpressedhispreferenceforTrumpoverClinton.Dmitry
Kiselev,theRussiantalkshowstarbestknownintheWestforreminding
usthatRussiancanturntheUSinto"radioactiveash"andforadvising
thattheheartsofgaysbeburnedaftertheirdeaths,gushesthat"anew
starisrising-Trump."KonstantinRykov,amemberofPutin'sUnited
Russiapartyandaleadingmediamanager,opinesthatTrumpis"thevery
embodimentoftheAmericandream."AlekseiPushkov,thechairmanofthe
Russianparliament'sinternationalaffairscommittee,tweetsadmiringly
aboutTrumponaregularbasis.Mostrevealingly,hewrotethatTrump
"canleadtheWesternlocomotiverightofftherails."
TheexplicitendorsementofTrumpbyAleksandrDugin,theleading
RussianfascistideologueandaveryimportantmediapresenceinRussia,
isparticularlyalarming.ThepremiseofDugin's"Eurasian"movementis
thatRussiaandtheWestareartificiallyseparatedbyenlightenedideas
oftheruleoflawandindividualrights.OnceleadersoftheWest
understandthattheseareartificial(Jewish)implantations,theycan
joinRussiaintheembraceoffascism.Duginaccordinglypraisesthe
Americanpeople,callinguponthemtoshedtheir"oligarchic"elitesand
returntotheirtrue(fascist)values.IreadDugin'suseof
"oligarchic"tomean"Jewish"-asuspicionconfirmedbyDugin'sreaction
toanactualoligarchwhoenjoysthebackingofAmericanneo-Nazis:
"TrumpisthevoiceoftherealrightwinginAmerica,"hewrites."Vote
forTrump!"
TheRussianexpectationisthataTrumpvictorywouldberuinousfor
Americanpower,andthatsuchpowerasremainswillbedeployedto
supportRussianinterests.Trump'sfantasyfriendshipwithPutinisone
morereasontoexpectthataTrumpvictorywouldalsobedisastrousfor
Americanvaluesandinstitutions.Putincanbeexpected,ifthetwomen
actuallymeetaspresidents,toflatterTrump'svanityandurgehim
onwardtowardafullassaultontheConstitution.Russiaisina
downwardspiralofitsownwhatAmericansmustconsidernowisaweak
presidentialcandidatewhowantstofollowPutin'scharmwhereitleads,
whichmostlikelymeansstraighttothebottom.
#14
DeutscheWelle
April21,2016
HowNigeriangirlsareforcedintoprostitutioninRussia
ByEmmaBurrows
CriminalsappeartobetakingadvantageofRussia'sstudentvisasystem
toforcegirlsintoprostitution.DW'sEmmaBurrowshasbeen
investigatinghowNigerianscomeforuniversityanddisappearintothe
sextrade.
TwoyearsagoawomancametoBlessingOsakwe'shometowninthesouthof
NigeriaandtoldtheyoungwomantherewasworkforherinRussia.She
toldOsakweshewouldhaveajobinasupermarket,andthatitwould
taketheherjustfiveorsixmonthstoearnthemoneytoreimbursethe
costsofthevisaandthejourneytoRussia.Afterpayingbackthe
$40,000,Osakwecouldkeepallthemoneyshemade,thewomansaid.
Osakwesaidherparentsareverypoorandthattheideaofgoingto
Russiatohelpthemandtosavemoneyforhereducationappealedtoher.
Sheagreed.
Onlywhenshearrived,didshediscovereverythingthewomanhadsaid
wasalie.
Therewasnosupermarketjob.Instead,OsakwetoldDW,shewasforcedto
workasaprostitute.
ShewasdrivenaroundMoscowtohavesexwithmen.Onenight,shewas
takentoanapartmentbuildingwhereonemanwasapparentlywaitingfor
her.Whenshegotinside,shediscoveredtherewereeightmen.Shewas
forcedtosleepwithallofthem,shesaid.Whensherefusedtohavesex
withoutacondom,theytookbackthemoneytheyhadpaidandbeatand
molestedher,shesaid.
Thentheythrewherfromthefourthfloorofthebuilding.
Osakwebrokeherhipwhenshehittheground.Shespenttwo-dayson
life-supportinthehospitaluntilhertreatmentwasstoppedbecause,
shesaid,shecouldnotaffordtopay.Shenowcannotwalkproperlyand
isconfinedtoawheelchair.
Traffickedonstudentvisas
Osakwe'sstoryisnotuncommon,saidKennyKehinde,whoworkswith
severalMoscowNGOsfocusedonpreventinghumantrafficking.Around
2,000-3,000Nigeriangirls-manyfrompoor,remotevillages-are
broughttoRussiaeveryyearforsexwork,hesaid.
"Thisisinternationalmodern-dayslavery,wherethegirlsarebrought
herewiththehelpofsomeRussiangovernmentofficials,someNigerian
authoritiesandso-called'madams'[pimps]whoexploitthesegirlsfor
sexinRussia,"saidKehinde.
MostofthegirlsKehindedealtwithhadcometoRussiaonstudent
visas,hesaid.
Suchvisasarenoteasytoobtainasuniversitiesmustprovide
supportingmaterialfortheapplications.
UsmanGafai,headofmissionattheNigerianEmbassyinMoscow,saidhe,
too,wasawareofNigeriansbeingtraffickedforsextoRussia.
"Tenyearsago,itwasnotsuchahugeproblemasthis,"hetoldDW.
"Thoseinvolvedareaninternationalcartel.Onadailybasistheyare
growingandmakingmoneyoutofit."
TheRussiangovernmentneededto"carryoutproperscrutinyofvisa
applicantsbackinNigeria,"Gafaisaid."ThemajoritycometoRussiaon
astudentvisa,andIwanttoseemorescrutinyofthat."
Kehindesaidilliterateteenagerswerebeingtrafficked.
"Howcanyoubringagirlof14-or15-yearoldtostudyina
university,whenshecannotevenreadandwrite?"heasked.
Migrationviolations
DWwasabletoexaminepassportsandmigrationdocumentsbelongingto
sixNigeriangirls,includingBlessingOsakwe,thatshowedtheyhad
arrivedinRussiaonstudentvisas.
TheSmolnyInstituteoftheRussianAcademyofEducationinSaint
PetersburgtoldDWithadissuedvisasupportdocumentsin2014for
OsakwetostudyaRussian-languagecourseinpreparationforentering
university.However,inanemailedstatementtoDW,theuniversity's
rector,GaidarImanov,saidsheneverarrivedattheinstitute,andthe
universityhadnoknowledgeofwhethershehadenteredthecountry.
Similarly,theBalticHumanitarianInstitute,anotherSt.Petersburg
university,confirmedviaemailithadissueddocumentstoawould-be
studentfromNigeriawhohadnevermadecontacttobeginhercoursein
Russia.
Bothuniversitiesrejectedthenotionthattheirstaffmayhavebeen
paidtoprovidedocumentstostudentswhowerenotgenuineortotraffic
girlstoRussiaforsex,callingtheallegation"fiction"and
"absolutelybaseless."
TheRussianMinistryforForeignAffairs,whoseembassiesissuevisas,
toldDWinawrittenstatementthatallstudentsinNigeriaundergoan
interview"withoutfail."Italsosaidborderofficialsdonotallow
entryintothecountrywithoutconfirmationfromtheuniversitywhere
theyareduetostudy.Theministrysaidit"wantedtoemphasize"that
individualsare"personallyresponsibleforadheringtomigration
legislation."
Russia'sFederalMigrationServicetoldDWthatit"regularlychecks"
formigrationviolationsandthatimmigrationlawhadbeenbrokenin
morethan325,000casesinthefirsttwomonthsof2016.Despiteseveral
requests,theagencydidnotexplainhowBlessingOsakwe-andgirls
likeher-couldhaveenteredRussiaonstudentvisasandapparently
disappearedfromauthorities'sightforyearsintothesextrade.
Tacklingtrafficking
Despitelegislationmeanttopreventhumantrafficking,Russiahasnot
shownafullcommitmenttotacklingtheproblem,saidAndrewBograndof
theNGODemocracyInternational.
"Prosecution,althoughexistent,isverylimited,"hesaid."More
alarming,accordingtoRussia'sfewwomen'srightsNGOs,isthealmost
completelackofshelterspaceforwomenwhoarevictimsofsex
traffickingordomesticviolence.
"Corruptionandtraffickingareinextricablylinked-andRussiafares
poorlyinmostcorruptionindexes,"hecontinued."Aslongasthestate
continuestoturnablindeyetotheproblemofcorruption,trafficking
willflourish."
'Stayhome'
BlessingOsakwerecentlyreturnedtoNigeriaandhopestoresumeher
studies.ButhertimeinRussiahaschangedherlifeforever.Itremains
unclearwhethershewillbeabletowalkproperlyagain.
ShehasamessageforotherNigeriangirlswhoareofferedjobsabroad:
"Staybackhome,learntowork.Eventhoughthepayissmall,itismuch
betterthancomingheretosufferorloseyourlife."
#15
TheGuardian(UK)
April20,2016
Russia's'coldturkey'approachhighlightsglobaldivideoverdrug
treatmentatUN
Russianrepresentativesuggestsmethadoneandheroinarethe'same
narcoticdrug'asoutsideexpertscondemncountry'stakeontreatment:
'They'retheworldleaderindenyingthescience'
ByJessicaGlenzainNewYork
JessicaGlenzaisareporterattheGuardianUS
AsinternationalleadersdebatedglobaldruglawattheUnitedNations,
abizarrepanelonherointreatmentshowedjusthowdividedcountries
areoverhowtotreataddicts.
Thepanel,sponsoredbytheRussianFederation,beganwithan
internationalgroupofscientistsanddiplomatsexplainingthe
importanceofevidence-baseddrugtreatment,beforeaRussiandoctor
veeredintoaddictionsciencedenialism.
"Weprefertotreatpeopleinadrug-freesetting,"DrOxanaGuseva,a
medicalrepresentativeoftheRussianFederation,toldtheGuardian
afterward,"becausemethadoneisthesamenarcoticdrugasheroin."
InRussia,heroinaddictsaregiven"coldturkey"detoxification
treatmentusingthemedicationNaltrexone,whichblocksopioidreceptors
inthebrain.Typically,thismedicationisusedtostopoverdoses.
Then,Gusevasaid,Russianaddictsaregivensocialtherapyand
educationasasubstituteforconventionalopioidreplacementtherapies,
suchasmethadoneclinics,whicharecommonintheUnitedStates.
Whilepartofthedoctor'sstatementistrue-methadoneandheroinare
bothnarcoticpaintreatments-addictiontreatmentthatusesmethadone
inplaceofotheropioidsisdeliveredtothebodyinamuchdifferentway.
First,methadoneclinicsprovideoraldoses,meaningthatthebody
processesthedrugmoreslowlythanintravenousheroin.Thatremovesone
ofthemostaddictivecharacteristicsofheroin-therush.Methadone
alsostaysinthebodyforalongerperiodoftime.Heroinandopioid
painkillerssuchasOxycontinlasthours,butmethadonecanhaveeffects
fordays.
Treatmentthatusesdrugssuchasmethadone,called"replacement
therapies",preventformeraddictsfromgoingthroughpainful
withdrawals.Buttheyalsoaddressadisturbingaspectofaddiction-
howitchangesthebrain'sphysiologylong-termtoaccommodateneural
pathwaysforcravingandcompulsivedrug-seeking.
America'stopaddictionexpert,DrNoraVolkow,directoroftheNational
InstitutesofHealthonDrugAbuse,disputedtheRussiandoctor's
assertions.
"Thedataisshowingafterchronictreatment,someofthesepatients
[addictedtoopiates]areabletoslowlytaperoffthismedication,"
Volkow,referringtotherapiessuchasmethadone.However,shesaid,
"therealityisthatinsomeinstanceswejustcannotachieve[full
sobriety]-andit'snotanydifferentthansomeonewhohasdiabetes.
"Isitthatwearesubstitutingandmaking[diabetics]dependenton
insulin?"sheaskedrhetorically."Perhapswecouldsaythat,butwe
couldalsosayit'sawayforthemtohaveaperfectlynormallife."
ThepanelwaspartofthefirstUNsummitondruglawin18years,known
asUngass,ortheUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblySpecialSession.
Thethree-daysummitwasmeanttoaddressthe"globaldrugproblem"and
includedebateonhowinternationalauthoritiesshouldmovetreaties
forwardtoaddressdrugabuseasapublichealthissue.However,most
debateontheagreementadoptedtookplaceinViennainMarch,withouta
majorityofmemberstates,andthe"outcomedocument",astheagreement
isknown,wasadoptedimmediatelyafterthesessionopened.
Thedocument'simmediateadoptionlaidbarejusthowdividedthe
internationalcommunityisontheissueofdrugabuse.Indonesiacalled
thedeathpenaltyan"importantcomponent"ofthecountry'sdrugcontrol
policy,whileliberalstatessuchasUruguay,ColombiaandNorway
expresseddismaythattheUNfailedtocondemnsuchexecutions.
"Norwayintendstobeaclearvoiceforamoreprogressiveapproach,"
thenation'sdelegatetoldtheGeneralAssemblyonTuesday.
"It'stooironicforRussiatobethesponsoroftheevent,"saidDaniel
Wolfe,directoroftheInternationalHarmReductionProgramfortheOpen
SocietyFoundations."They'retheworldleaderindenyingthescience."
RussiandrugtreatmentmethodswererecentlytestedinCrimea,afterthe
countryannexedtheformerUkrainianregion.
Around800formerheroinaddictstherewerecutofffromreplacement
therapy,roughly100ofwhomhavedied,accordingtoadvocacygroupsand
theUN'sspecialenvoyMichelKazatchkine.
ManyhaveblamedRussia'sbanontreatmentsuchasmethadoneandlackof
cleansyringeprogramsforanuptickinnewHIVinfectionsevenas
infectionratesinotherareasofEuropefall.
"It'sreallystupid,"saidPavloSkala,associatedirectorforthe
AllianceforPublicHealth,aKiev-basedorganization,whoattendedthe
eventonWednesday."It'snotscientific,as[with]everythingrelated
totreatmentinRussia."
#16
RFE/RL
April17,2016
BarredFromHundredsOfOccupationsInRussia,AFewWomenFightBack
byTomBalmforth
MOSCOW--SvetlanaMedvedevacannotrisetothetopofherchosen
professionforaverysimplereason--sheisawoman.
Theambitionofthe30-year-oldmotheroftwoistoearnamuchbetter
wageasthecaptainofaboatontheVolgaRiver,whichrunsthroughher
hometownofSamara.Andwiththedegreesheearnedin2005fromSamara
RiverCollege,sheshouldbewellonherway--oralreadythere.
ButwiththesysteminplaceontheVolga,theoccupationofcaptain
requireshertohavepriorexperienceasashipmechanic.Andthatjob
isoneofhundredsthatareopentomenonlyinRussia,accordingtothe
law.
ARussiangovernmentresolutionpassedin2000prohibitswomenfrom38
industriesandover450jobsitdeemstobe"dangerous"or"arduous."
AdoptedduringPresidentVladimirPutin'sfirstyearinoffice,itwas
thelatestincarnationofSoviet-eraregulationsthatsoughttokeep
womeninwhattheCommunistPartyoncecalledtheir"traditional"role
ofbearingchildrenforthegreatergoodofsociety.
Tothisday,thebancoversaswatheofoccupationsincludingminer,
carpenter,firefighter,traindriver,blacksmith,diver,anddriverof
buseswithmorethan14seats.
ThatmakesRussia"thecountrywiththemostjob-relatedbarriers,"
accordingtoaSeptember2015WorldBankreportongenderequality.
OnMarch15,theUnitedNationscalledonRussiatoamendits
legislationandshortenthelistofbannedoccupations.Italsoformally
labeledMedvedevaavictimof"gender-baseddiscrimination"--a
hard-wontriumphinalegalbattleshebeganin2012,seekingtobypass
theban.
Thatyear,Medvedevawasactuallyhiredforamechanic'sjob,withsome
responsibilitiesattheboat'shelm,byaprivatecompanyinSamara.But
whenherworkwasduetostart,shewasturnedawaybecauseofthe
legislation.
"Everythingwassigned,andIwasmeanttostartworkonMonday,"she
says."Icame,hadalookattheengineandhowitworks.Iwasmeantto
startintwodays--andthentherewasthisresolutionbanningmefrom
work."
Medvedevabegancampaigningfordispensationtobypasstheban,firing
offletterstotheKremlin,LaborMinistry,andHealthMinistry.They
allreferredherbacktotheLaborCode,whichinturncitesjobslisted
asdangerousinthegovernmentresolution.
Shewenttocourttoseekanordertoforcethecompanytoensuresafe
workingconditionsinthejob,butherappealwasrejected.Shesaysthe
jobisconsidereddangerousbecauseoftheloudnoiseoftheengine,
whichcanbecanceledoutbywearingearplugs.
"Idon'tthinkthereshouldbeprofessionsthatarebannedforwomen,"
Medvedevasays."Inanycase,womenaren'tgoingenmassetogototake
upheavywork,andinthoseprofessionswhereitreallyisheavy,the
jobsshouldsimplybeimproved.Theyshouldbeimproved,notbanned."
Medvedevasaysshehadpracticallygivenupwhenshecameacrossthe
RussianhumanrightsorganizationMemorial,whichofferedtohelppress
hercaseinternationally.ShewenttotheUnitedNations,whose
CommitteefortheEliminationofDiscriminationAgainstWomenpronounced
heravictimofdiscriminationandcalledonRussiatoamenditsLabor
Codeandreducethenumberofjobsthatareclosedtowomenunderthe
governmentresolution.
"Noevidencehasbeenprovidedtothecommitteethattheinclusionof
thepositionofhelmperson-motoristinthelistofprohibitedjobsis
basedonanyscientificevidencethatitmaybeharmfultowomen's
reproductivehealth,"theUNcommittee'sexpertssaidintheMarch15
statement.
SovietLaw
Thelegislationharksbacktothecommunistera,andhasbeenmodified
slightlywiththepassageoftime.Itslatestincarnationwaspassedas
agovernmentresolutionin2000thatliststhebannedprofessions.The
LaborCodeadditionallysaysthatwomenareprohibitedfromworking
undergroundexceptiftheyaredoingnonphysicaltaskssuchascleaning.
Theyarealsonotallowedtodojobsinvolvingliftingormovingheavy
items.
"ThissystemisveryoldandgoesbacktoSoviettimes,"saysYelena
Gerasimova,directoroftheMoscow-basedCenterforSocialandLabor
Rights."Therestrictionshavechangedovertheyears--some
occupationshavebeenremoved,othersincluded.Ithasn'talwaysbeenin
thisform.Atvarioustimesitwasaddedto,butthegeneralapproach
wasalwaysthesame."
Ontheonehand,Sovietideologyexplicitlyespousedequalitybetween
menandwomen--andonthefaceofitdidsodemonstratively.Soviet
cosmonautValentinaTereshkovabecamethefirstwomaninspacein1963,
20yearsbeforeSallyRidebecamethefirstAmericanwomantomakethetrip.
Ontheground,itwasadifferentstory.DuringtheSovietUnion's
breakneckindustrializationandthereconstructionafterthedevastation
ofWorldWarII,whichleftthecountrywithadeficitofmen,women
wereactivelypushedintothelaborforce--butwerelargelykeptout
ofhigh-skilledjobs.
TheSovietLaborCodeof1922explicitlybannedwomenfrom"dangerous"
jobs.In1981,theyeartherulingCommunistPartycalledforthe
"reinforcementofthetraditionalmaternalrole,"thenumberofjobs
shuttowomenhit460.
'LadyMetro'
Perhapsthemostwell-knownbanwastheprohibitionintroducedinthe
1980sonwomendrivingtrains,includinginthemetro,orsubway.Until
then,femaledrivershadbeencommonplace-alegacyofthedearthof
menfollowingWorldWarII.Womenwerealsopreventedfromworkingas
trainassistantsinthefrontcar.
Womenweregraduallyphasedoutofthejob--withoneexception.Until
herreportedretirement,NatalyaKorniyenkowasknownastheonlyfemale
metrodriverinMoscow,andthetabloidMoskovskyKomsomoletsdubbedher
"LadyMetro"in2007.
TheMoscowMetropressservicesaidin2009thatKorniyenkowasableto
continueworkingbecausethebanonhiringwomenasmetrodriversdid
notsaywhattodowiththosealreadyworking,andshepredatedtheban.
Othershavesincetriedtogainemploymentinthedriver'sboothof
subwaytrains--buttonoavail.In2009,AnnaKlevets,thena
22-year-oldlawstudent,pressedadiscriminationsuitafterbeing
turneddownforajobasanassistantmetrooperatorinSt.Petersburg
onthegroundsofhergender.Shearguedthatitwasaviolationof
Russia'sconstitutionalguaranteeofequalrightsformenandwomen.The
SupremeCourtrejectedherappealinMay2009.
Lastyear,anonlinepetitionwasairedbyaresidentoftheSiberian
cityofNovokuznetskcallingfortherepealoftheblanketban,saying
itwasoutdatedprimarilyforeconomicreasons.
Theauthorofthepetitionarguedthattherestrictionsweretolerable
intheSovietUnionbecausewomenwereabletofindotherdecentworkin
asysteminwhicheverycitizenwasvirtuallyguaranteedajob,butthat
withunemploymentontheriseandrealincomesfalling,itisunfairin
today'sRussia.
"Nowthesituationhaschanged,"saysthepetition,whichhasgarnered
just650signatures."Thejobsthatwomenarebarredfromcouldbethe
bestoronlywayforthemtoearnmoneytolive."http://tinyurl.com/jctm39v
GerasimovasaysthatRussiahassixmonthstorespondtotheUN'scall
tochangethelegislation.Shesaidthat"severalyearsago"therehad
beensignsthattheLaborMinistrywasmakingmovestorepealthe
legislation,butthattherehasbeennoovertindicationofthatrecently.
TherestrictionsseemtofitinwiththepushesbyPutinandtheRussian
OrthodoxChurchtotoutwhattheycalltraditionalRussianvalues.
Forherpart,Medvedevaseesnogroundswellofsupportforachange.
Thelegislation"isaprobleminmycase,"shesays."Ifthiswasa
particularlybigproblem,someonewouldhaveraiseditbeforemeasthe
resolutionhasbeeninforcefor16yearssince2000.I'mtheonewitha
concreteproblemothersapparentlydon'thaveit."
#17
Time.com
April20,2016
WhyaWininaDutchCourtIsMakingVladimirPutinSoHappy
AcourtintheHaguehasquasheda$50billionjudgmentagainstthe
Russianstate.ButPresidentPutin'senemiesfromtheYukosaffair
aren'tgivingupanytimesoon
BySimonShuster
Inthesummerof2014,aninternationalcourtofarbitrationbasedin
theDutchcityoftheHagueissuedanastoundingruling.Thecourt
orderedthegovernmentofRussiatopay$50billionindamagestoformer
shareholdersoftheYukosoilcompany,whichtheRussianstatehad
forcedintobankruptcy,choppedintopiecesandsoldofftostate-run
firmsinthemid-2000s.Thatlegalassaulthadamountedto
expropriation,accordingtothecourt'sdecisionatthetime,byfarthe
biggestthecourtofarbitrationhadeverhandeddown,andamajorblow
toMoscow.
RussiaappealedtotheDistrictCourtintheHague-butitwasclearly
worriedabouttheoutcome.Topleaditscase,theKremlinhiredsomeof
thebestlawyersintheworld.ItspolicehadraidedhomesinMoscow
lookingforusefulevidence.Thestakeswerehigh.Ifthecourthad
ruledagainsttheKremlin,bailiffswouldbeabletocontinueseizing
Russianstateproperty,fromrealestateandbankaccountstoworksof
art,aspartofaglobalhunttocollectthedamages.
"Ourargumentsarewatertight,"AndreiKondakov,thecoordinatorofthe
legalteamrepresentingRussia,toldTIMEacoupleofdaysbeforethe
ruling."Butwecouldlose."
Instead,thecourtonWednesdayhandedRussiaaremarkablewin.It
overturnedtheoriginalrulingonatechnicality,thusgrantingRussia's
appeal."Wedon'thavetopayasinglepennytothisbunchofguys,"
Kondakovtoldreportersaftertheruling.Well,atleastnotuntilthe
Yukosshareholdersfileanothersetofappeals,asthey'vealready
promisedtodo.
"Thecourthasmisappliedthelaw,"TimOsborne,theheadoftheirlegal
team,saidatapressconferenceonWednesday.Butevenasthefight
overtheYukosfortunecontinuesinthecourts,Russiacanclaima
powerfulvictory,onethatcouldhelpthestatewinsimilarchallenges
toitswealth-anditsreputation-aroundtheworld.
BeforeWednesday'sruling,theKremlinhadbeenpreparingforamuch
moredifficultfight.Inresponsetothe$50billionjudgmentin2014,
itrefusedtopaythedamagestoYukosshareholders,whothenretaliated
bytryingtoseizeRussianstateassetsaroundtheworld.Lastsummer,
courtsinFranceandBelgiumagreedtofreezedozensofRussianbank
accountsandpropertiesasameansofcollectingthedebt.Moscowwas
furious.
Anythingbelongingtothestate,withtheexceptionofembassiesand
otherdiplomaticproperty,waspotentiallysubjecttoseizureonforeign
soil.SoRussiahadtothinktwiceaboutsendingplanestoforeignair
shows,forinstance,orlendingarttoforeignmuseums.Russiafought
back-aftertheassetfreezesinFranceandBelgium,Moscowthreatened
toretaliateagainstanycountrythattriedtoenforcethedebttoYukos
shareholders.InNovember,Putinevensignedanewlawthatwouldallow
hisgovernmenttocarryouttit-for-tatconfiscationsofforeignassets
onRussiansoil.
ButforPutin,thissagaisaboutmuchmorethanmoney.TheYukosaffair
isapersonalgrudge,onethatbegansoonafterhecametopowerin
2000.InoneofhisfirstactsasPresident,hesetouttocheckthe
powerofthebillionaireclassofplutocratsthathadeffectivelybought
upcontrolofthecountry'seconomyduringtheprivatizationwaveinthe
1990s.Putin'sarrivalmeanttherulesofbusinesswouldchange.During
aseriesofmeetings,hetoldtheoligarchsthattheycouldkeeptheoil
fields,minesandfactoriestheyhadpurchasedfromthestateonthe
cheapbeforehecametopower.ButtheyhadtorecognizePutin's
authorityasstandingwellabovetheirown.
"Hewasablackbox,nooneknewwhatwasinside,"recallsSergei
Pugachev,theoligarchwhohelpedarrangethefirstmeetingwithPutin.
Thebettertogethismessageacross,Putindecidedtoholdthatmeeting
attheformerdachaoftheSovietdictatorJosefStalin.Mostofthem
gotthemessage,Pugachev,whonowlivesinexileinLondon,toldTIME
in2014."'HetookustoStalin'sdacha,'"heremembersoneoftheother
guestssayingthatday."'It'senoughthatheletusleave.'"
Atthetime,thewealthiestamongtheoligarchswasMikhail
Khodorkovsky,whowasworthabout$15billion.Withthehelpofhis
connectionsintheyouthleagueoftheSovietCommunistParty,hehad
startedinbusinessearly,sellingpersonalcomputersbeforemostSoviet
citizenshadeverheardofthem.Aspost-SovietRussiatransitionedto
capitalismintheearly1990s,heamassedenoughmoneytostartbuying
upthechoicestoilfieldsthatthenearlybankruptRussianstatecould
offer.TheseformedthebasisoftheYukosoilempire-andsecuredhis
positionasthemostpowerfultycooninthecountrybythetimePutin
arrivedintheKremlin.
WhenTIMEinterviewedhimin2014,Khodorkovskyalsorecalledthatfirst
meetingwithPutin,thoughnotquitethesamewaythatPugachevdoes.
Foronething,Khodorkovskywasnotintimidated."Maybenow[Putin]
talksinthelanguageofultimatums.Butatthetimeitwasallvery
polite,"hetoldme."Still,weunderstoodthatweweredealingwiththe
headofthecountry,whohasalotmoreauthority[inRussia]thanthe
AmericanPresident.Andwe,thebigbusinessmen,mayhavesomepowers.
Butcomparedtothoseoftheheadofstate,theyarepracticallyzero."
Still,theheadofYukosdidnotbehaveasmodestly-orascautiously-
astheothers.IntheyearsthatfollowedPutin'sascenttopower,
Khodorkovskybegannegotiatingdealswithforeigncompanies,including
U.S.oilconcerns,thatwouldhavethreatenedthestate'seffective
monopolyontheexportofoil-byfarthemostvaluableofRussia's
naturalresources.Healsobeganfundingoppositionpartiesand
discussinganeventualrunforthepresidency.Putindidnottakekindly
tosuchambitions.
Theconflictbetweenthemcametoaheadin2003,whenRussiancommandos
arrestedKhodorkovskyonthetarmacofaSiberianairportandtookhim
tojailtofacechargesoffraud,whichhedenied.Hisoilcompanywas
hitwithsomanytaxclaimsthatitwasforcedtoenterbankruptcy.Over
thenextfewyears,theauthoritiessoldoffYukos'mostvaluableassets
andoilfieldstostate-controlledfirmsrunbyPutin'scloseassociates.
ThequestionnowatthecenterofthelawsuitsintheHagueiswhether
thatassaultonYukoswaslegal.Inawardingdamagesof$50billiontwo
yearsago,thetribunalruledthattheactionsoftheRussianstatewere
"equivalenttoexpropriation"intheYukoscase.Kondakov,thelawyer
representingtheRussianstate,deniesthatKhodorkovskyandhisfirm
were"singledoutandtargeted"bytheauthorities.
Inthe1990s,manyoftheoligarchsbecamevastlyrichthroughthe
purchaseofstateassets,Kondakovargues."Everyonegotawaywiththose
auctions,butthenyouweregivenachance,"hesaysbyphonefrom
Moscow,referringtotheopportunityPutingavetheoligarchstostart
payingtheirtaxesandfallingintoline."Soit'snotaboutothers
gettingaway.It'sabouthowyoubehaveafteryou'regivena
once-in-a-lifetime,uniquechancetoacquireaverypriceyassetfora
verynegligibleamountofmoney."
ButwhatevermoneyKhodorkovskymayhavesavedinthepurchaseofhis
oilwells,hepaidforitdearlyinprison.Atonepointin2006,his
cellmateinaSiberianpenalcolonytriedtostabhimintheeyewhile
hewassleeping.Hewasoftenheldinsolitaryconfinementandwas
forcedtoworksewinguniformsforthepolice.Onlyafter10yearsof
incarceration,whenKhodorkovsky'smotherwasgravelyill,Putinagreed
togranthimapardon-aslongashewentintoexile.
ItdidnottakelongforthePresidenttoregretthatunusualactof
clemency.WithinayearofhisreleaseinDecember2013,Khodorkovsky
beganopenlycallingforarevolutionagainstPutin'srule.Usingthe
moneyhehadstashedinforeignbanksbeforehisarrest,healsobegan
tosupporttheoppositionmovementinRussiaandbankrollcandidatesin
Russianelections.Withtheir$50billionjudgmentfromtheHague,his
formerpartnersintheoilbusinessbeganchasingRussianassetsaround
theworld."Wearenothidingfromanyone,"Kondakovinsistedatthe
time."Wearenotrunningfromanyregularoperationofthestate."
ButthestatedidstepupitshuntforevidenceagainstKhodorkovskyin
Russia.AfewdaysbeforeChristmas,policeraidedtheofficesofhis
activistgroupinMoscow,aswellasthehomesofhisspokeswoman,
severalofhisemployeesandtheirrelatives.Investigatorssaidthe
raidswerelinkedtoanothercaseof"illegalprivatization"ofassets
inthe1990s,thistimeinvolvingafertilizerandminingcompany.
Insomecases,though,suchevidencecanbeusefulindefendingRussia
againsttheYukosshareholders,saysKondakov."Thosethingsaredonein
parallel,"hesayswhenaskedabouttheapartmentsraidedinDecember.
Hewasnotawareofanyusefulmaterialgatheredbypoliceinthose
particularsearches.Butinfightingtheenforcementofthejudgmentin
theHague,Russiansecurityserviceshaveopenedtheirtrovesof
documentsonYukostothegovernment'slawyers-includingthe
high-pricedAmericanfirmWhite&Case."Wearethankfultoboththe
officeoftheprocuratorgeneralandtheRussianInvestigativeCommittee
foropeningtheirfiles,providingaccessforourlawyers,"Kondakov
tellsTIME.
Thosefilesmayyetcomeinhandy.AfterWednesday'srulinginthe
Hague,theYukosshareholderspledgedtoappealallthewayuptothe
DutchSupremeCourt,whichmayyetdecidetoupholdthe$50billionin
damages.TheirracetograbRussianstateassetswouldthenbebackon.
Khodorkovskywillbewatchingfromthesidelines.Soonafterhisarrest
in2003,hetransferredhisstakeintheYukosoilempiretohis
partners.Sohedoesn'thavemuchtogain,atleastfinancially,from
thelitigationintheHague."Evenwithoutme,noonewillgivethemany
peaceonthisissue,"hetoldmewithasmilesoonafterhisrelease.
Forhispart,heplanstocontinuehiscrusadeagainstPutinforaslong
asittakestounseathim."Myfriendswillcontinuetheirresistance,"
hewroteonTwitterafterWednesday'sruling,referringtotheYukos
shareholders."I'llkeepgoingforregimechangebyothermeans."
#18
www.foreignaffairs.com
April19,2016
IncorruptiblePutin
WhythePanamaAllegationsWon'tStick
ByGregoryFeifer
GREGORYFEIFERistheauthorofRussians:ThePeopleBehindthePower.
[Completetextherebehind
paywall:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-04-19/incorruptible-putin
ThebiggestsurpriseabouttheRussianreactiontothePanamaPapers
leakscameintheformofaposterthatdepictedRussianPresident
VladimirPutinasthedrug-addledprotagonistplayedbyJohnnyDeppin
themovieversionofHunterS.Thompson'sFearandLoathinginLas
Vegas-completewithPanamahat,aviatorsunglasses,andcigarette
holder.AdorningacentralMoscowbusstopforseveralhoursbeforethe
authoritieshaditremoved,theposterread,"WhatPanama?"
Therarepublicdisplayofdefiancemainlyservedtodrawattentionto
theapathyofthegeneralpublic-itcomesasnosurpriseinacountry
wherestatepropagandafuelswidespreadsuspicionthatmostforeign
developmentsareplotsagainstMotherRussia.EvenasWesternfiction,
however,revelationsfromtheleakeddocumentswouldstraincredulity
aboveall,informationrevealedthatthehandfulofindividualsfrom
Putin'sinnercirclewhomovedatleast$2billionthroughCaribbean
offshorecompaniesincludedSergeiRoldugin,anobscurecellistfromSt.
PetersburgwhoisthegodfatherofoneofPutin'sdaughters.
Thepresident'sresponsewasmoreincrediblestill.Dismissingthe
accusationsagainstRolduginaspartofaU.S.plottoundermineRussian
unitybyimpugningahumblemusician,hesaidhisoldfriendhadonly
depositedcashthathehadhonestlyearnedonthesideandintendedto
usetobuyinstrumentstodonatetocharity....
#19
KennanInstitute
April19,2016
HardWorkvs.Magic
ByMaximTrudolyubov
SeniorFellow,KennanInstitute.Editor-at-Large,VedomostiDaily
Russianofficialsstillreferto"conditionsfordoingbusiness"or
"qualityofgovernance"whendiscussingthecountry'seconomic
performance.Butthelackofgravitasintheseconversationsis
palpable.Russia'sofficialeconomicpolicymakerscommandanexcellent
understandingofthecountry'seconomicproblems,buttheylackthe
powertoadministertreatmentbasedontheirowndiagnosis.
Therealpolicymakers,thoseintheKremlin,consistentlyhavetheupper
handandareabletoturntheirthinkingintopolicies.Theproblemwith
thisisnotthefactthatthepresidentandhisinnercirclearemore
powerfulthantheministersoffinanceoreconomics.Technocrats
everywherearelessimperiousthanpoliticalheavyweights.Theproblem
isthattheeconomistsandtheKremlinplayersliveintwodifferentworlds.
Theheavyweights'andtechnocrats'understandingsofthereasonsbehind
eventsaresoprofoundlydifferentthatthepoliciesproposedbyeach
areincompatible.Thesedifferencesofopiniongobeyondtheusual
policydisagreementsandstrikeattheheartofthegoalsofpolicymaking.
Technocratsseereasonsfordomesticfailuresoriginatingindomestic
issuesandseektofindinternalcuresfortheeconomy'sailments.They
liveintheworldofglobaleconomicprocessesandwouldliketoseea
competitiveanddevelopedRussia.Heavyweightsstresstheimportanceof
externalfactorsandseemtobelievethatoncethedesignsofforeign
evildoersarerevealedandrebuffed,theeconomywillfixitself.They
operateunderawarmentalityandwouldliketostayinpoweratallcosts.
Whereaseconomictechnocratsspeakoftheinvestmentclimateandtaxes,
theKremlinpolicymakersspeakofinternationaldealsthatwouldpush
oilpricesbacktotheirformerhighs.Whereastechnocratsaretryingto
promotebusiness-friendlypoliciesandinternationalintegration,
heavyweightsseeeveryeconomicproblemasamanifestationoftheUnited
States'"hybridwar"againstRussiaandseekretaliation.
RussianFinanceMinisterAntonSiluanoveffectivelyconfirmedthiswhen
hespokeinfrontofallthetopbrassofRussia'seconomicpolicymaking
apparatusatarecentconference.Askedtonamethemostimportant
growthfactors,hesaiditwasoil,althoughitshouldnothavebeen.
"ThetopgrowthfactorinRussiaisoil:$20abarreladd0.8to1
percentagepointsofeconomicgrowth.Butdoweneedthiskindof
volatile,jerkygrowth?"Siluanovaskedhimself."Theconsequencesof
growthlikethisarethestrengtheningoftherubleandthelossof
competitiveness.Weneedaninvestment-basedgrowth...afewsectorsof
theeconomyshowedsomeprofitincreaseslastyearduetoexchangerate
differences.Butitallwentintodividends,notintocapitalinvestment
because,withthesehighlevelsofdeficit,economicagentswerenot
sureofpolicydirection.Theywerenotsureifthegovernmentwould
keepthecurrenttaxregimeinplaceorhiketaxes."
Macroeconomicpoliciesalonewon'tbeabletoreturntheeconomyto
growthbecauseofthelackofacompetitiveinvestmentclimateand
strongstateinvolvementinbusinessactivities,PyotrAven,theheadof
AlfaBank,Russia'slargestindependentlender,saidinarecentinterview.
Whilethesekindsofpoliciesrequireyearsofpoliticalhardwork,the
Kremlin'sfavoritepoliciescanbedecidedandputintoeffectquickly
andeasily."Russiaandsomeothercountrieshavebeenlivingina
situationoftheso-calledhybridwarunleashedbytheUnitedStates...
Internationallawisfrequentlyusedasaninstrumentofhybridwarfare
againstRussia,"AlexanderBastrykin,headoftheRussianInvestigative
Committee,wroteinapiecepublishedonMonday.Bastrykinwentonto
blameallRussia'seconomictrouble,includingthefallingrubleand
dwindlingincomes,onAmericanmischief.Eventhegrowingfiscalburden
thataffectsRussiandomesticcompanies,Bastrykinwrites,istheresult
ofAmericanpressure.Yes,sanctionsareinplace,butreducing
everythingtoaneffectofexternalpressureistantamounttomagical
thinking.
IfeverythingthatgoeswrongisaresultofAmerica's"hybrid"attack,
aretaliatoryattackisinorder.Isitgoingtobeanotherinvasionor
somedomesticcrackdown?Theanswerissupposedtoremainunknownuntil
everyonelearnsitfromthemorningnews.That'showagovernmentacts
whenitisatwar.Buttheveryunpredictabilityofthishighlyreactive
"wartime"policymakingisdeadlytomostkindsofbusiness.Sothe
economicpolicymakersarenottheproblem."Theproblemisthat
investors-bothforeignandRussian-don'treallytrustthemaninthe
bigchairnottodrivetheeconomydeliberatelyoffacliffjusttostay
inpower,"summarizesSamuelGreene,directorofRussiaInstituteat
King'sCollege,London.
Russiacanfollowtwopathstotryandclimboutoftheeconomicpitit
currentlyfindsitselfin.Itcanchampionprivateentrepreneurshipand
privateinvestmentandworktomakeitsbusinessclimatemore
competitive.Oritcantrustinitspoliticalwitchcraftandhopethat
oilpriceswillsomehowgrowbacktobeneficiallevels.Thislatterpath
hasfailedspectacularly.Russianofficialswereputtingalotofhope
intoapossibledealtofreezeoiloutput.ButasummitinDohaamong
theworld'slargestoilproducingcountriesendedwithoutanagreement
onSundayafterSaudiArabiainsistedthatIran,afierceregional
rival,hadtobepartofanyagreement.
RussiacouldfollowtheadviceofthelikesofBastrykinandintroduce
furtherrestrictivelegislation,bancertaintypesofcontent,and
censordomesticInternet.AllthesethingswillsomehowmakeRussia
betteroff,Bastrykinbelieves.GivenhisbackgroundasonetimeYoung
CommunistLeagueSecretaryofthecityofLeningrad,thiskindof
ideologicalapproachisunderstandable.Itisjustpuzzlingthatthese
attitudesandbeliefsstillconsistentlybeatoutprofessionaleconomic
policymakinginRussia.
#20
www.foreigpolicy.com
April21,2016
SitRep:Exclusive:PentagonSaysRussiaCanFightinUkraineandSyria
AnotherTwoYears
BYPAULMCLEARYandADAMRAWNSLEY
Stillcold.IthasbeentwoyearssinceNATOandRussiasatatthesame
tabletotalksecurityissues,andthetimeoffhasn'tdonemuchforthe
relationship.AmeetinginBrusselsWednesdaydesignedtobreaktheice
onissueslikeUkraine,Syria,andtensionsintheBalticsdidn'tget
veryfarbeforeallsidesagreedtheydon'tseeeye-to-eyeonmuch.
"Duringthemeetingitwasreconfirmedwedisagree,bothwhenitcomes
tothefacts,thenarrativesandtheresponsibilitiesforthecrisisin
andaroundUkraine,"NATOSecretary-GeneralJensStoltenbergsaidafter
thesitdown.
TheNATO-RussiaCouncilwasestablishedin2002tokeepupamonthly
dialoguebetweenMoscowandtheEuropeandefenseorganization,butties
werebrokenoffinJune2014aftertheinvasionofUkraine.
ThewarinUkraine'seastrageson,however,withoneseniorDefense
officialtellingSitRepthatthereare7,000Russiantroopsstillinside
Ukraine,advisingpro-Moscowrebelsandengaginginthefightingthemselves.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sinterventionintheSyrianconflict
topropuptheregimeofBasharal-Assadhasn'tmadeadentinthe
abilityofRussiatosendmoreequipmenttoUkraine,either.Overthe
pastyear,Russiahasshippednewrocketlaunchers,artillery,drones,
andadvancedelectronicwarfareequipmenttotheeasternDonbassregion.
"Ithinktheycansustainthisforaconsiderableperiodoftime,"the
officialsaid."Ourviewisthattheycouldsustainthiseasilyfor24
months"evenifoilpricesremainlowandtheRussianeconomycontinues
tostagnate.DespiteanannouncementlastmonththattheRussian
militarywouldbegintowithdrawforcesfromSyria,insteadMoscowsent
moreadvancedhelicopters,andthelevelofdailyairstrikeshas
remainedsteady.
TheNATOtalks,someanalystssay,likelywon'tamounttomuch.But
they'reastart.OlgaOliker,directoroftheRussiaandEurasiaProgram
attheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudiessaysthat"right
now,theRussiansareatthetableintheinterestofsimplybeingat
thetable.IdothinkapartoftheRussianpurposeinmeetingwithNATO
is'beawareofus,payattentiontous,andyoucan'tdiscountus,'"
andnotmuchmore.
#21
NewYorkTimes
April21,2016
RussiaBolstersItsSubmarineFleet,andTensionsWithU.S.Rise
ByERICSCHMITT
NAPLES,Italy-Russianattacksubmarines,themostintwodecades,are
prowlingthecoastlinesofScandinaviaandScotland,theMediterranean
SeaandtheNorthAtlanticinwhatWesternmilitaryofficialssayisa
significantlyincreasedpresenceaimedatcontestingAmericanandNATO
underseadominance.
Adm.MarkFerguson,theUnitedStatesNavy'stopcommanderinEurope,
saidlastfallthattheintensityofRussiansubmarinepatrolshadrisen
byalmost50percentoverthepastyear,citingpublicremarksbythe
RussianNavychief,Adm.ViktorChirkov.Analystssaythattempohasnot
changedsincethen.
Thepatrolsarethemostvisiblesignofarenewedinterestinsubmarine
warfarebyPresidentVladimirV.Putin,whosegovernmenthasspent
billionsofdollarsfornewclassesofdieselandnuclear-poweredattack
submarinesthatarequieter,betterarmedandoperatedbymore
proficientcrewsthaninthepast.
Thetensionsarepartofanexpandingrivalryandmilitarybuildup,with
echoesoftheColdWar,betweentheUnitedStatesandRussia.Moscowis
projectingforcenotonlyintheNorthAtlanticbutalsoinSyriaand
Ukraineandbuildingupitsnucleararsenalandcyberwarfarecapacities
inwhatAmericanmilitaryofficialssayisanattempttoproveits
relevanceafteryearsofeconomicdeclineandretrenchment.
IndependentAmericanmilitaryanalystsseetheincreasedRussian
submarinepatrolsasalegitimatechallengetotheUnitedStatesand
NATO.Evenshortoftensions,thereisthepossibilityofaccidentsand
miscalculations.Butwhateverthethreat,thePentagonisalsousingthe
stepped-upRussianpatrolsasanotherargumentforbiggerbudgetsfor
submarinesandanti-submarinewarfare.
Americannavalofficialssaythatintheshortterm,thegrowingnumber
ofRussiansubmarines,withtheirabilitytoshadowWesternvesselsand
Europeancoastlines,willrequiremoreships,planesandsubstomonitor
them.Inthelongterm,theDefenseDepartmenthasproposed$8.1billion
overthenextfiveyearsfor"underseacapabilities,"includingninenew
Virginia-classattacksubmarinesthatcancarryupto40Tomahawkcruise
missiles,morethantriplethecapacitynow.
"We'rebacktothegreatpowerscompetition,"Adm.JohnM.Richardson,
thechiefofnavaloperations,saidinaninterview.
Lastweek,unarmedRussianwarplanesrepeatedlybuzzedaNavydestroyer
intheBalticSeaandatonepointcamewithin30feetofthewarship,
Americanofficialssaid.LastyearsomeofRussia'snewdiesel
submarineslaunchedfourcruisemissilesattargetsinSyria.
Mr.Putin'smilitarymodernizationprogramalsoincludesnew
intercontinentalballisticmissilesaswellasaircraft,tanksandair
defensesystems.
Tobesure,thereishardlyparitybetweentheRussianandAmerican
submarinefleets.Russiahasabout45attacksubmarines-abouttwo
dozenarenuclear-poweredand20arediesel-whicharedesignedtosink
othersubmarinesorships,collectintelligenceandconductpatrols.But
Westernnavalanalystssaythatonlyabouthalfofthoseareableto
deployatanygiventime.Moststayclosertohomeandmaintainan
operationaltempofarbelowaColdWarpeak.
TheUnitedStateshas53attacksubmarines,allnuclear-powered,aswell
asfourothernuclear-poweredsubmarinesthatcarrycruisemissilesand
SpecialOperationsforces.Atanygiventime,roughlyathirdof
America'sattacksubmarinesareatsea,eitheronpatrolsortraining,
withtheothersundergoingmaintenance.AmericanNavyofficialsand
WesternanalystssaythatAmericanattacksubmarines,whicharemadefor
speed,enduranceandstealthtodeployfarfromAmericanshores,remain
superiortotheirRussiancounterparts.
ThePentagonisalsodevelopingsophisticatedtechnologytomonitor
encryptedcommunicationsfromRussiansubmarinesandnewkindsof
remotelycontrolledorautonomousvessels.MembersoftheNATOalliance,
includingBritain,GermanyandNorway,areatthesametimebuyingor
consideringbuyingnewsubmarinesinresponsetotheKremlin's
projectionofforceintheBalticandArctic.
ButMoscow'srecentlyrevisednationalsecurityandmaritimestrategies
emphasizetheneedforRussianmaritimeforcestoprojectpowerandto
haveaccesstothebroaderAtlanticOceanaswellastheArctic.
Russiansubmarinesandspyshipsnowoperatenearthevitalundersea
cablesthatcarryalmostallglobalInternetcommunications,raising
concernsamongsomeAmericanmilitaryandintelligenceofficialsthat
theRussianscouldattackthoselinesintimesoftensionorconflict.
Russiaisalsobuildinganunderseaunmanneddronecapableofcarryinga
small,tacticalnuclearweapontouseagainstharborsorcoastalareas,
Americanmilitaryandintelligenceanalystssaid.
And,liketheUnitedStates,Russiaoperateslargernuclear-powered
submarinesthatcarrylong-rangenuclearmissilesandspendmonthsata
timehidinginthedepthsoftheocean.Thosesubmarines,although
lethal,donotpatrolliketheattacksubmarinesdo,anddonotposethe
samedegreeofconcerntoAmericanNavalofficials.
AnalystssaythatMoscow'scontinuedinvestmentinattacksubmarinesis
incontrasttothequalityofmanyofRussia'slandandairforcesthat
frayedinthepost-ColdWarera.
"IntheRussiannavalstructure,submarinesarethecrownjewelsfor
navalcombatpower,"saidMagnusNordenman,directoroftheAtlantic
Council'strans-AtlanticsecurityinitiativeinWashington."TheU.S.
andNATOhaven'tfocusedonanti-submarineoperationslately,and
they'veletthatskilldeteriorate."
ThathasallowedforarapidRussianresurgence,WesternandAmerican
officialssay,partlyinresponsetowhattheysayisRussia'sfearof
beinghemmedin.
"Idon'tthinkmanypeopleunderstandthevisceralwayRussiaviewsNATO
andtheEuropeanUnionasanexistentialthreat,"AdmiralFergusonsaid
inaninterview.
InNaples,attheheadquartersoftheUnitedStatesNavy'sEuropean
operations,includingtheSixthFleet,commandersforthefirsttimein
decadesarehavingtocloselymonitorRussiansubmarinemovements
throughthemaritimechokepointsseparatingGreenland,Icelandandthe
UnitedKingdom,theG.I.U.K.Gap,whichduringtheColdWarwerecrucial
tothedefenseofEurope.
Thatstretchofocean,hundredsofmileswide,representedthelinethat
SovietnavalforceswouldhavehadtocrosstoreachtheAtlanticandto
stopUnitedStatesforcesheadingacrosstheseatoreinforceAmerica's
Europeanalliesintimeofconflict.
Americananti-submarineaircraftwerestationedfordecadesattheNaval
AirStationKeflavikinIceland-inthemiddleofthegap-butthey
withdrewin2006,yearsaftertheColdWar.TheNavyafterthatrelied
onP-3sub-hunterplanesrotatingperiodicallythroughthebase.
Now,theNavyispoisedtospendabout$20milliontoupgradehangars
andsupportsitesatKeflaviktohandleitsnew,moreadvancedP-8A
Poseidonmaritimepatrolaircraft.ThatmoneyispartofthePentagon's
new$3.4billionEuropeanReassuranceInitiative,aquadruplingoffunds
fromlastyeartodeployheavyweapons,armoredvehiclesandother
equipmenttoNATOcountriesinCentralandEasternEurope,todeter
Russianaggression.
NavyofficialsexpressconcernthatmoreRussiansubmarinepatrolswill
pushoutbeyondtheAtlanticintotheMediterraneanandtheBlackSea.
RussiahasoneMediterraneanportnow,inTartus,Syria,butNavy
officialsheresayMoscowwantstoestablishothers,perhapsinCyprus,
EgyptorevenLibya.
"IfyouhaveaRussiannuclearattacksubmarinewanderingaroundthe
Med,youwanttotrackit,"saidDmitryGorenburg,aRussianmilitary
specialistattheCenterforNavalAnalysesinWashington.
Thismonth,theDefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgencychristeneda
132-footprototypedroneseacraftpackedwithsensors,theSeaHunter,
whichismadewiththeintentionofhuntingautonomouslyforsubmarines
andminesforuptothreemonthsatatime.
Thealliesarealsoholdinghalfadozenanti-submarineexercisesthis
year,includingalargedrillscheduledlaterthisspringcalledDynamic
MongooseintheNorthSea.Theexerciseistoincludewarshipsand
submarinesfromBritain,France,Germany,theNetherlands,Norway,
PolandandtheUnitedStates.
"WearenotquitebackinaColdWar,"saidJamesG.Stavridis,a
retiredadmiralandtheformersupremealliedcommanderofNATO,whois
nowdeanoftheFletcherSchoolofLawandDiplomacyatTufts
University."ButIsurecanseeonefromwherewearestanding."
#22
WallStreetJournal
April18,2016
Russia'sWilyMenandWomen
ByJOSHUAYAFFA
Mr.Yaffa,ajournalistbasedinMoscow,isacontributortotheNew
Yorker.HeisalsoafellowatNewAmerica.
PUTINCOUNTRY
ByAnneGarrels
Farrar,StrausandGiroux,228pages,$26
In2000,atthedawnofRussia'sPutinepoch,thesociologistYuri
Levadapublishedanarticletitled"TheWilyMan."Init,Mr.Levada
drewaportraitofaparticularlyRussianspecies-apersonalitytype
forgedbyamixtureofdoublespeak,irresponsibilityandthesuspicion
thatmaterializedduringtheSovietUnionandwasleftdisorientedby
thecollapseofthatsystem.Thewilymanisnotparticularlyfooledby
propagandaheknowsthestate'sweaknessesandfoibleswell.Butthat
doesnotmakethewilymanopposedtotherulingsystem-hedependsonit
andfearsitsabsencemorethanwhateverhardshipsitsexistencemay
bring.Thewilyman,Mr.Levadawrites,"notonlytoleratesdeception,
butiswillingtobedeceived"and,what'smore,"requires
self-deceptionforthesakeofhisownself-preservation."
Althoughthenominalsubjectof"PutinCountry"isChelyabinsk-an
industrialcityofonemillionpeopleeastoftheUralMountainsandits
surrounding,mineral-richregionofcoalminesanddenseforests-the
book'sdeeperandmorerevelatorythemeisthatoftheRussianwilyman.
AnneGarrels,itsauthor,isalongtimecorrespondentforNPR,andshe
hasthereportorialadvantageofbeginningherobservationof
Chelyabinskin1993,whenthewoundoftheSovietcollapsewasstill
fresh.Ms.Garrelshasreturnedtotheregionmanytimesovertheyears,
includingalongstintduringMr.Putin'smomentousandcurrentthird
presidentialterm,whichbeganin2012.
OnhermorerecentvisitstoChelyabinsk,Ms.Garrelsfindsacity
transformed-Moscowwasn'ttheonlycitybeautifiedthankstothe
country'swindfallofoilandgasprofitsinthe2000s.ChanelandH&M
haveshopsintownvisitorshavetheirpickofaHolidayInnora
Radisson.Chelyabinskcanbeacosmopolitan,happeningplace-thoughnot
onepronetoliberalpoliticsoroppositionactivism.Hencethebook's
title.
YetadecadeandahalfintoMr.Putin'srule,therearefewplacesin
Russiauntouchedbythesystemhehasconstructedandnowlordsover:
It'sall"PutinCountry."Ms.Garrelsadmitsthatallthoseyearsago
shefirstchoseChelyabinskatrandom-theresultofliterallythrowinga
sharpenedpencilatamap-andinawaythatshows:Thereislittle
remarkableabouttheplace,thoughthatisalsowhatmakesthebook
worthwhile.ThiscouldbeanywhereinRussia.
WhatmakesChelyabinskcompellingisitspeople.Theyarelargelydecent
andundeniablyintelligent,protectiveofwhattheyhaveachieved,wary
oftheunknown,and,aboveall,cleverandflexibleatadaptingto
changingtimes.Inaword,theyarethewilymen(andwomen)ofMr.
Levada'sessay.Earlyinthebook,Ms.GarrelsintroducesIrina,a
magazineeditorinher30swhohasaSwisseducationandaEuropean
wardrobe.Yetsheharborsa"resentment,almostanoutrighthatred"for
theWest.Irina,Ms.Garrelswrites,islikemanyinChelyabinsk:"They
aresickofbeatinguponthemselves.Theyaresickoftheircountry's
beingseenasnothingmorethanamafia-riddenkleptocracy-eventhough
theyarethefirsttocomplainaboutcorruption.Theyaresickofthe
West'sbeatinguponthemfortheirsins,especiallynowtheyaremore
awareofWesternsins."
LaterwemeetNatalia,whowasawomen's-rightsadvocateinthe1990s
andisnowfocusedonincreasingRussia'sbirthrateasamemberofthe
politicallyloyalcitycouncil.Herinterestsmayberetrogradeand,at
times,illiberal,butforNataliaacertaincynicismisasignof
enlightenmenttobeoverlyearnestistobenave.The1990s,asa
familiarargumentgoes-repeatedsomanytimesbyRussianpoliticiansand
punditsastobecomeakindofmantra-werelessatimeoffreedomthan
ofchaos."Idon'twanttorepeatthatperiod....Wedestroyedas
muchaswedeveloped,"Nataliasays.
PerhapsmosttellingisAlexander,wholivesinavillagefivehours
fromthecity.HeadmiresMr.Putinandthesystemthepresidenthas
built,evenashecomplainsthatcorruptionisrife,governanceispoor,
andthelocaleconomyisheldbackbyanoverbearingandrapacious
state.Alexander'scriticismsmirrorthoseofthecitizensinthebook
whoconsiderthemselvesdissidentsandactivists,thoughAlexanderwould
neverconsiderhimselfeitherone."HeisproudofPutin,"Ms.Garrels
writes,"andbetweenhimandthosewhodreadtheircountry'scurrent
course,thereisanunbridgeabledivide."
Thissortofinternalcontradictionisn'tuniquetoAlexander.Manyof
theRussiansMs.Garrelsmeetsholdviewsthatseemimpossibleto
reconcile.Shecitespollsthatshowthattwo-thirdsofethnicRussians
callthemselvesOrthodoxbelievers,butmanyofthoseverysamepeople
saythattheydonotbelieveinGod.Atonepoint,theauthorvisitsa
prestigiousstatesecondaryschoolwherethestudentsofferacurious
mixofheroes:JosephStalin,SteveJobs,BillGatesandGandhi.The
searchforapost-Sovietideologyhas,inChelyabinskandacrossRussia,
ledtoastrangemishmash,atoncefaithfulandmystical,distrustful
andfatalistic.
Although"PutinCountry"offersatactilesenseoflifeinChelyabinsk,
itcanalsofeelshallowandimpressionistic:Localwomen,Ms.Garrels
writesatonepoint,area"farcryfromthebabushkasofyore."More
frustratingaretherathersensationalallegationsthatdropinoutof
nowhereandareleftunexplored,suchasherclaimthatprisoninmates
inChelyabinskwerereleasedtofightonthesideofpro-Russianrebels
inUkraineiftheyrefused,shewrites,theyfacedfurtherpunishment.
AccordingtodoomsayersintheWest,thePutinsystemwassupposedto
havemetitspoliticaldownfallmanytimes:aftertheglobalfinancial
crashof2008-09,aftertheseasonofanti-Putinprotestin2011-12and,
mostrecently,after2014,whenWesternsanctions,lowoilpricesanda
tankingrublepushedtheRussianeconomyintoarecession.Butthe
rulingarchitecturethatMr.Putinhasbuilt-nottomentiontheman
himself-hasproveddurableinplaceslikeChelyabinsk.Forhislong-term
politicalsurvival,Mr.Putinwillneedtheacquiescence,evenifonly
passive,ofthecountry'swilymenandwomen-somethingthat,fornow,he
continuestoenjoy.
#23
BulletinoftheAtomicScientists
April14,2016
Interview
FormerUSambassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaul
ByJohnMecklin
ABSTRACT
Inthisinterview,formerUSambassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaul
discussesUS-Russianrelationsandhowtheymightbeimproved,given
RussianPresidentVladimirPutin'ssuspiciousviewsofUSintentions.
UntilhisreturntotheUnitedStatesin2014,MichaelMcFaulwastheUS
ambassadortoRussia,servingfortwoyearsinthatpostasrelations
betweenthetwocountrieswentfromtensetodreadful.Duringhis
ambassadorship-andinthreeprecedingyearsasaspecialassistantto
thepresidentontheNationalSecurityCouncil-McFaulplayedamajor
roleintheObamaadministration'sapproachtoPutin'sRussia,first
helpingtodriveanattempted"reset"ofUS-Russianrelationsandthen
tryingtodealwitheventsthatessentiallymadetheresetobsolete:
Moscow'sannexationofCrimeaanditssemi-stealthyinvasionofEastern
Ukraine.
McFaulreturnedtoacademiain2014,butheremainsdeeplyengagedwith
US-Russianpolicy,servingasthedirectorandaseniorfellowat
StanfordUniversity'sFreemanSpogliInstituteforInternational
Studies,aseniorfellowattheHooverInstitution,andaprofessorof
politicalscience.He'salsobeenaninformaladviseronRussianand
EuropeanaffairstotheHillaryClintonpresidentialcampaign.
McFaulspokewithBulletineditorinchiefJohnMecklininJanuary,as
theUSpresidentialprimarieswerekickingoff,thesituationinSyria
continuedtobecomplexandappalling,andtheWestandRussiaremained
atloggerheadsoverUkraine.
BAS:WhatdoyouthinkisthebestwayforwardfortheUnitedStates,
theWest,NATO?Istherereallyanythingtodo?Orshouldwejustbe
waitingforPutintobeoutofthepicture,
McFaul:Well,Iwouldfirstsay,thebestwaytoimproveUS-Russian
relationsisforPutintorethinksomeoftheprovocativethingshe's
done,right?Attheendoftheday,he'stheguywhoannexedCrimea.We
didn'tcausethatconfrontation.He'sthepersonwhodecidedtosupport
theseseparatistsinEasternUkraine.Andtheseareviolationsof
internationallaw,severalofthem,bytheway,treatiesthatRussiahas
signed.Andthoushallnotannexterritory-that'skindofa21st
centurynorm.Itmayhavebeenapracticeahundredyearsago,butit
shouldn'tbeapracticeinthe21stcentury.
Andsotheactionreallycomesonhisside,itseemstome,beforeyou
haveachanceforamorecooperativerelationshipwithourcountry.And
atthesametime,Iwouldjustsaythat,whenthere'snotanaspiration
for"reset2.0,"butjustanaspirationtofocusonaconcreteproblem,
weofcoursecanandshouldcontinuetoworkwiththeRussianswhenit
servesournationalinterest.Andsotheprospectsfornegotiating
somethinginSyria,they'reprobablyprettylow,thoseprobabilities,
butweshouldengagewithRussia,astheObamaadministrationisdoing,
totrytomakethathappen.
SamewiththeimplementationoftheMinskagreement[tohaltthewarin
EasternUkraine].I'dactuallythinktheprobabilitiesforUkraineare
higherthantheyareforSyriarightnow.Butweshouldengageintalk
andtrytoseekthoseoutcomeswhentheybecomeavailable.
BAS:Well,I'mjustcuriousaboutthat.Onwhatdoyoubasewhatyou
justsaid,thenotionthattheRussiansmightactuallydosomething
aboutUkraine?Fromtheoutsideitlookslike,no,they'renotaboutto
giveCrimeaback,ordoanythingabouttheeasternpartofUkraine,
exceptwhatthey'vebeendoing.Doyouknowsomethingelse.
McFaul:We'reontherecord,right?
BAS:I'mrecording,yes.
McFaul:SoIwouldjustsaythis,thattheRussianeconomyhadoneof
itsworstyearsinadecadelastyear.Thereisasensethatit'snot
goingtobeeasytogetbackontrack.Andthereisadebatenow
unfoldinginRussia,quietly,notabigdebate,mostlyanelitedebate.
Butthereisadebate,andsomeprominentpeoplesometimesmakeit
public,likeHermanGrefofSberbank[Russia'slargestbank]didjust
lastweek,thatmaybewe'vegonetoofarhere,andthatwhatarewe
reallygetting?Hedidn'tsaythisexactlyIdon'twanttoputwords
intoHermanGref'smouth.ButwhatIwouldsay,lookingatthisdebate,
isthattherearesome[inRussia]whothinksanctionsreliefismore
importantthancontinuingtokeepthisfesteringquasi-civilwargoing
inEasternUkraine.
Idon'twanttojudgetheoutcome.Idon'twanttopretendIknowwhat
Putin'sthinkingabout.Butthefactthatthedebateishappening,that
atthehighestlevels,includingwithPutinfromtimetotime,USand
EuropeanofficialsaretalkingwithRussiansaboutthat.Otherlittle
thingsthathavehappenedrecently-where[USStateDepartment]
AssistantSecretaryVictoriaNulandmetinKaliningradwithValadislav
Surkov,aKremlinadvisor,totalkaboutthesethings.That'snew.That
wasn'thappeningjustsixmonthsago.
AndsoIdon'twanttogetaheadofmyskisandbetoooptimistic,butI
seeactivitywithrespecttotryingtoresolvetheconflictinEastern
Ukraine.NotCrimea-Iwanttopointthatout.Crimeaisreallynot
beingdiscussed.ButIseemoreactivitythanjustayearago,and
whetheritleadstoresultsornot,Ican'tpredict.Buttherearemore
attemptstotrytoresolveitthantherewerebefore.
BAS:WhatisyourgeneralassessmentofPutin?Ishesomebodywhowould
listentootherpeoplesuggestingthathechangepoliciesinUkraine?
Again,lookingfromoutside,itseemstomehe'sgotaworldviewthat
theWesthasbeenprogressivelytryingtoessentiallyoverthrowhis
government.Wouldhelistentootherssaying,"Yeah,butweneedtocalm
downtheUkrainethingformoney'ssake?"
McFaul:Well,hemostcertainlyhasthatworldview.Ithinkthat's
right.Imean,I'velistenedtohimpersonallydescribeit.Sohedoes
assignthismotivationtoWesternleaders,includingPresidentObama,
and,whenIwasambassador,tomepersonally.Justasweinhisview
havefomentedregimechangeintheArabworld,andthenthecolor
revolutionsbeforethat,andthenafterthatinRussiaandUkraine,he
seesusorheassignstousthatkindofbothambitionandcapability-
grosslyoverstatedandinaccurateinmymind,Ijustwanttomakethat
clear.It'sallinhismind,becausewewerenotfomentingrevolutionin
EgyptortheseotherplacesandmostcertainlynotinRussiaorUkraine.
Butthat'shisworldview,that'sright.Iagreewiththat.Andthat's
notgoingtochange.Nobody'sgoingtoconvincehimotherwiseatthis
stageinhispoliticalcareer.
Atthesametime,hedoesfaceeconomicchallenges.Andhe'sasmart
enoughguytospeakwiththosewhoworryabouttheeconomyinakindof
rationalpragmaticway.Andsoyou'vegottodealwiththat,
irrespectiveofwhatyouthinktheAmericansaredoingornotdoing.And
thatIthinkisthedebateunderwayinRussiarightnow.
BAS:SomehavesuggestedthatPutin'slostconnectionwithrealityI
thinkthosewere[GermanChancellor]AngelaMerkel'swords.Imean,you
don'tseemtohavethatviewofhim.Youthinkofhimasquiterational.
McFaul:No.Iwanttobeclearaboutthat.Ithinkyoucanhavetwo
impulsesatthesametime.First,tomakeeverybodyreallysimpleis-
frommyexperienceingovernment,it'sthebiggestflawthatwe
academicshave.Like,he'sarationalactor,orhe'snot.Itturnsout
thatmostpeople,includingmanyAmericanleadersthatIobserve,have
bothofthoseimpulses.We'renotjustrealistsandneocons.Youknow,
there'samixofthingsthatpeoplewant.Andsometimes[ideasin]the
mixofwhatyouwantclash,right?Andthefactthatyouhavetwodual
impulsesthatclashdoesn'tmakeyoucrazyitjustmeansyouhavetwo
differentpreferences,right?
Tomakethislessabstract:Igainedweightasanambassador,right?I
wanttoloseweight.ThatisanobjectiveIseek.Andyetifyouputa
cookieinfrontofme,I'mlikelytotakeabiteofit,evenifit's
contradictingthatothergrandgoalthatIhave.Thatdoesn'tmakeme
crazythat'skindofhumannature.AndIwouldsaythesameabout
Putin.PutincanbesuspiciousoftheWestandwillbealongthelines
wejusttalkedabout.Andattimes,whenhethinksitmeetsanother
objectivethathealsoseeks,hewillbewillingtoengageanddodeals
withus.Aswesawbefore,whenwewerehavinganincrediblyheated
debatewiththeRussianswhenIwasinthegovernmentaboutthenature
ofthechallengetotheAssadregime.Andhethoughtweweresupporting
regimechange.Andweweretryingtosupportapoliticalsolution.And
wenevercouldcometoagreementonthatquestion,atleastnotyet.And
evenamidstallthattension,wealsodidthedealonremovingchemical
weaponsfromSyria,right?
Sohe'scapableofthat-Idon'tknowwhatyouwouldcallit-
compartmentalization,maybe,whereyoucanstillhavethatviewbutalso
cooperateonsomething.Andlet'sjustbeclear.Ifheeverdidreally
leanintoenforcetheMinskAgreementanddothethingsthatRussiaand
theirsurrogatesinEasternUkrainewouldhavetodo,ofcoursehewould
frameitas,"Well,weachievedvictory,andsonowwecandothese
things."Hewouldnotsay,"BecauseObamaandMerkelputpressureonme,
I'venowchangedmypolicy."Hewouldneverspeakinthosetermstohis
peoplebackhome.
BAS:AretherethingstheUnitedStatescoulddotohelphimsaveface
inthatway?
McFaul:Youknow,Ithinkthepolicyhasbeenveryclearandconsistent.
AndIleftthegovernmentacoupleyearsago,butIthinktheideathat
ifyouannexacountryandyousupportaproxyindependencecampaignin
thecountry,thereshouldbeapricetopayforthat.AndI'mimpressed
bythefactthat[theObamaadministration]managedtogetsuch
comprehensivesanctionsandtoholdtheminplace.That'snotaneasy
diplomatictasktokeeptheminplace.
AndI'mimpressedbytheadministration'sveryrational,non-emotional
statementthatitrepeatedlymakes,whichis,"Ifthisaccordis
implemented,thenwewillliftthesanctionsthatweputinplacein
responsetothisinterventioninEasternUkraine."Ithinkthat'sthe
correctway.SoPutinknowsexactlywhathe'sgetting.
MypersonalassessmentoftheMinskaccordis-Ithinkthat'sapretty
weakdeal.Ithinkit'snotagreatdealfortheUkrainians,frankly.
But,youknow,itwasnegotiated.ThepresidentofUkrainesignedit,so
there'snotawaytorenegotiatethat.ButIsaythatbecauseIdon't
thinkitwillbethathardforPutintosellitbackhomeasan
achievementforRussia.
BAS:I'vehadalotofpeopleexpressconcerntomeaboutthenumberand
kindofmilitaryexercisesthatNATOandtheUnitedStatesandRussia
areengagedin.Andinreadingupforthisinterview,Inoticedyou've
advocatedthatsomedefensiveweaponsbeprovidedtoUkraine,andthat
moretroopsbestationedinNATOcountriesthatareundergreatest
threatfromRussia.Howdoyouseethedangerofanyofthisactually
escalating,becomingwhatwealldon'twant,somekindofshootingwar?
Whereisthebalancebetween,okay,weshouldshowtheRussiansthat
theycan'tjustwalkintotheBaltics,butatthesametimenotcreate
situationsthatcouldactuallyleadtowar.
McFaul:Well,thebestwaytopreventwarintheBalticstatesisto
makeitjustimpossibleforPutintoconsidergoingintoandinvadinga
NATOcountry.HereIagreewithRonaldReagan,peacethroughstrength.
Whichistosay,ifit'sambiguouswhatourcommitmentis,tome
ambiguityincreasestheprobabilityofconflictwithrespecttoourNATO
allies.It'snottheotherwayaround.Ithinkinadifferenttimeone
wouldarguedifferentthings,right?Therewasatimenottoolongago
whenIwasinthegovernmentwhereIdidn'tseetheneedforsomeof
theseexercisesbecausewewereinamuchmorecooperativetimewith
Russia.[Then-RussianPresidentDmitri]MedvedevcametotheNATOsummit
andlistenedin2010andsaidbasicallytheColdWar'sover,andwecan
cooperatewiththeNATOalliance.Thatwasjustfiveyearsago,bythe
way.Weweretalkingaboutcooperatingonmissiledefense.
Sointhatkindofera,theideaofmakingmorecredibleour[NATO]
Article5commitmentsdidnotseemnecessary.ButPutininvadeda
country.Imean,heannexedterritoryinEurope.Thatdemandsa
response.Sothattomemeansthatonehastomakethosecommitments
lookmorecredibleatatimewhenthey'vebeendrifting,andpeoplehave
beenuncertain.Withrespecttothealliance,Ithinkthatthat'sthe
wayweavoidwar.
Andbytheway,somepeopletalkaboutRussiacomingintotheBaltic
statesIthinkthat'saprettylowprobability.Gettingbackagainto
thethingswetalkedaboutearlier,Idon'tthinkPutin'sthatcrazy.
Butwewanttoreducetheambiguityasmuchaswecan.
BAS:YoutalkedearlieraboutevenwiththishugedivideoverUkraine
andtosomedegreeSyria,theremaybeotherareasthatRussiaandthe
UnitedStatescouldstilltalkandreachagreement.Howdoyouview
nucleararmscontrol?Isthatsomethingthatcancontinueatallbefore
Ukraineissolved?Ornot?
McFaul:Idon'tthinkithastodowithUkraine.WhenIwasinthe
government,wehadaveryclearpolicyofnolinkage,right?Very
controversialwithsomeofourcritics,Iknow,butwebelieved,again,
borrowingfromtheReaganadministration-that'swheretheseideas,at
leastforme,camefrom-thatifweweregoingtohaveprogressonarms
control,wehadtodelinkthatfromotherissues,whetherit'sUkraine
todayorbackthenitwouldhavebeensomeotherissues.Andthatwas
ourfirmpolicy.And,wegottheNewSTARTTreatydone.Iwaspartof
thatteam.Butwediditindependentlyofotherthingsgoingoninthe
relationship.Ithinkthatneedstobethestrategymovingforward.I
thinkitwouldbestrangetosaythatuntilyouleaveCrimea,we'renot
goingtodomorearmscontrol.Iwouldn'tsignuptothatkindoflinkage.
ButIwouldsaytheprobabilitiesofanewagreementanytimesoonare
nexttozero.That'sessentiallybecausetheRussiansdon'twantto
engage.They'rehappywiththenewSTARTtreaty."Happy"isastrong
word.Theyhavelearnedtolivewithitandhaveacquiescedtoit.But
theideaofgoingtolowernumbersandstartingnegotiations,theydon't
wanttodo.Infact,theymadeitclearwellbeforeUkraine,whenIwas
stillinthegovernment,thattheyweren'tinterestedinanotherround
ofnegotiations.Withonecaveat:Whattheywouldalwayssay,"Well,as
longaswebegintotalkaboutlimitsondefensiveweaponsandmissile
defenses,thenwecouldstarttohavethatconversation."
AndtheObamaadministrationwasnotwillingtoacceptthatkindof
precondition,andI'mnotthatoptimistic.Idon'tknowallthe
[presidential]candidates,butIwouldthinkit'dberatherdifficultin
2017tobeginasetofnegotiationsoveranewtreatythatwouldinclude
limitsonourmissiledefensesystemsatthismomentintime.
BAS:Wouldn'tthatmoreorlessprecludeanyarmscontrolagreements?
McFaul:Yes.That'swhatIsaid.It'snotbecauseofUkraine,that'smy
point.It'sbecauseoftheseotherdynamicsinthestrategicbilateral
relationship.
BAS:I'mgoingtoaskaquestionthatmayjustbetoopoliticalforyou
togetinto.Ifso,justsayso.Butwhatareyourthoughtsaboutsome
waytonudgetheAmericanpresidentialelectoralprocesstowardmore
realisticdiscussionsofmajorinternationalaffairsissues,suchas
US-Russianrelations?Oristhatjusthopingfortheimpossible,thatat
leastinageneralelectiontherecouldberealisticdiscussionofoptions?
McFaul:Well,italldependsonwhatyoumeanbytheworld"realistic,"
becausethere'sactuallyalotofvariation,ifyouaddTrumptothe
equation,abouthowtodealwithRussiainthedebate.Myassessmentis
thatwhatTrumpissayingabouthisstrategyvis-a-visPutinisvery
unrealistic.SoIdon'tknowwhereyoucomedownandthewayyoudefine
realistic,buttheideathathe'sjustgoingtoforgetaboutCrimea,and
we'regoingtogetalongwithPutin,andI'mgoingtododealsbecauseI
knowhowtododeals-thatdoesn'tsoundveryrealistictomeor
pragmaticintermsofthestrategy.
Conversely,theotherextreme-thatI'mnotgoingtotalktotheguy
becausehe'sathug-thatalsodoesn'tsoundrealistictome.That
doesn'tsoundlikeastrategythatadvancesAmericannationalinterests.
Iguessintermsofjusttactics,wheneverI'maskedbyjournalistswho
actuallyinteractwiththesecandidatesfromtimetotime-forme,when
Ilistentothedebate,Iwanttoknownotwhatthegoalis.That's
easy.Anybodycansetoutsomegoal.Therealquestionis,"Howareyou
goingtoachievethatoutcome?"Right?Andtothatend,youalways,in
myview,havetohavearealisticconversation:"Well,whatwouldyoudo
differentlythanwhatthecurrentadministrationisdoingthatwould
thengiveusanyreasontobelievethatyouwouldbemoresuccessful
withwhatyou'retryingtodo?"
ManycandidatestalkaboutISIS,right?"We'regoingtobombISIS.We're
goingtodefeatISIS."Well,tellmeexactlyhowyou'regoingtodefeat
ISIS.HowmanytimesareyougoingtoattackISIS?Doyouevenknowhow
manytimestheadministrationhas?I'llbetyoualotofpeopledon't
knowthattherehavebeenover10,000attacksagainstISISsofar.And
theprogram,OperationInherentResolve,ismeasuredinthebillions[of
dollars]already.Soyou'regoingtodoublethat?You'regoingtotriple
that?Andthentelluswhyyouthinkthatwillachievetheendsyouwant.
IwouldsaythesamethingaboutPutin.Soyou'regoingtobetoughwith
Putin?Well,whatdoesthatmean?Whatexactlydoesitmeantobetough
withPutin?TherearemoresanctionsonmoreRussiansandmoreRussian
companiestodaythanprobablyatanypointinthe200-yearhistoryof
US-Russianrelations.Soyou'regoingtotriplethat?Whatdoesitmean
tobetoughbeyondwherewe'reattoday?
ButamIoptimisticthatwe'regoingtohavethatconversation?No,I'm
notoptimistic.
BAS:Itsurewouldbenicetohaveinsomeofthesedebatesthe
moderatorsbeissueandareaexperts,asopposedtoacablenewstalking
head.Butthat'sprobablyafar-fetchedwishalso.
I'vetaken25minutesoutofyourlifealreadyhere.ButIwanttoask
onemorequestion.
McFaul:Allright,sir.
BAS:TheotherdayGeorgeShultzandBillPerrydidaBulletinevent
thereatStanford.Theywerebothdescribingasortoftrack-two
diplomacykindofthingthattheyweregoingtohavetheyhadhad
variouslevelsofRussianofficialscomevisitStanford,andtheywere
goingtohavemore.Andtheyweresuggestingthatonewaytoimprovethe
relationshipwas,ashappenedbackwhentheSovietUnionwasdissolving,
tohavemoretrack-twoactivity,moreexchangeattheexpertlevelin
academiaandatthescientistlevel.Whatdoyouthinkaboutthat?Does
thatactuallyeverhelpanything?
McFaul:I'malwaysabigfanoftracktwoengagements,orwhatIwould
callsociety-to-societyengagements.Tracktwooftentimeshassome
pretensionsthatwe'regoingtotalk,andthenwe'regoingtogotoour
governmentsandtellthemwhattodo.AndI'mallforthataswell.I
participatedinthosemeetingsthatGeorgeandBilljustorganizedlast
week.ButIjustthinkmoreconnectivitybetweensocietiesingeneralis
goodfortheAmericannationalinterests.Becausewe'regoingtohave
disagreementswiththeRussiangovernmentandwiththeRussianpeople
aboutsubstantiveissues.Ithinkwecouldreducethem,butwe're
inevitablygoingtohavesomeofthose,nomatterifPutin'sthereor
somebodyelse.
Whatwecan'tallowistohavedisagreementsbasedonbadinformationor
misperception.AndIseethatalotrightnowinUS-Russianrelations.I
witnesseditwhenIwasinthegovernment.IwitnesseditwhenIwas
ambassador.Anditdrovemenuts.Youknow,whenwe'rearguingabout
whethertwoplustwoequalsfiveorfour,that'snogood.Thatmakesthe
biggerproblemsthatweneedtosolvenearlyimpossible.Soanytime
therecanbemoreinteractionbetweenscientists,betweenstudents,
betweenformergovernmentofficialsinthekindoftracktwoway,I
thinkbothofoursocietiesinthelongrunwillbebetteroff.
#24
TheAmericanInterest
www.the-american-interest.com
April19,2016
HOWTHEWESTMISJUDGEDRUSSIAPART13
TheKremlin'sTriadastheMeansofSurvival
TheWestneedstounderstandthattheRussianSystemiswillingtofight
foritssurvival,andthatthisfightcouldtakemanydifferentforms.
ByLILIASHEVTSOVA
LiliaShevtsovaisanonresidentseniorfellowintheCenteronthe
UnitedStatesandEurope,partoftheForeignPolicyProgramatthe
BrookingsInstitution.FormerlywiththeCarnegieEndowmentfor
InternationalPeace.
Editor'sNote:HowdoRussiaandtheWestseeoneanother?Whatarethe
experts'viewsontheconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheWest?Howdo
thepunditsexplaintheRusso-UkrainianwarandRussia'sSyriangambit?
WhataretherootsofthemythologyaboutRussiaintheWest,andwhy
hastheWestfailedtopredictandunderstandRussia'strajectory?This
isthe13thandfinalessayinaseriesthatseekstoanswerthese
questions.
Civilizationsinastateofdecayhavetoimprovisetostayalive,but
theseimprovisationsoftenhavedramaticimplicationsfortherestof
theworldandcanevenacceleratedemiseratherthanpostponingit.
Russiatodayisexhibitingafunnellogicofakindonecouldciteasan
exampleofsuicidalstatecraft.First,theKremlincreatesaproblemand
then,intryingtodealwithit,provokesevenmoreseriousproblems.
TheCrimeaannexationinMarch2014wasthepointofdeparturefora
ruinous,seeminglypredestinedpathforRussiaunderthecurrent
politicalregimeithardlyseemspossiblethatRussiacanchangecourse.
TheannexationwasfollowedbyRussia'sundeclaredwaronUkraine,which
distractedtheworld'sattentionfromCrimeabutyieldedgrave(domestic
andinternational)consequencesforRussia.TheKremlinbegantolook
forexitfromtheUkrainiancrisisandsodraggedRussiaintotheSyrian
quagmire.
TheSyria"project"wasintendedtoreturnRussiatotheglobalMega
League.1Amarginalizedstatecan'tbeasuperpower,whichforRussia
constitutesoneofthekeypillarsofthepersonalizedpowersystem.
Timeisacriticalfactor:AEuropeconsumedwithitsownchallengesand
alameduckU.S.PresidentgavetheKremlinwhatitviewedasawindow
ofopportunity.TheKremlinpolicyof"coercivedating"-thatis,
rampinguppressureinordertoforcetheobjectofdesireintoa
dialogueorcooperation-hadtopersuadetheWesternleaderstoagreeto
anewbargaininordertostaveoffanotherroundofRussianbulldozing.
U.S.-RussiacooperationonIrancreatedanimpressionthatthesame
wouldbecontinuedonSyria.ZbigniewBrzezinskiwrote,
"Onemighthavethought...thatthenextphaseincopingwiththeSyrian
problemmightinvolvearenewedefforttoresolveit....Instead,Moscow
haschosentointervenemilitary,butwithoutpoliticalortactical
cooperationwiththeUS....AtbestitwasadisplayofRussianmilitary
incompetenceatworst,evidenceofadangerousdesiretohighlight
Americanpoliticalimpotence."
IwouldaddthattherewasonemorereasonforMoscow'sSyrianforay:
Obama'srejectionoftheKremlin's"GrandAnti-TerroristCoalition"
idea,whichforcedMoscowtoturnto"coercivedating."
TheKremlinwarinSyrianotonlyaddedtothedestabilizationofthe
MiddleEastbutalsoincreasedtheterroristthreatinRussiaandfor
Russia.AfterRussiagotitselfinvolvedinSyria,itsconfrontation
withTurkey,whichhasitsownpowerfulinterestsintheregion,was
unavoidable(thoughunexpectedfortheKremlinnonetheless).
InMarch2016Moscowannouncedthepulloutof"itsmainforces"from
Syria,anannouncementthatonceagainbaffledtheworld.TheRussian
militarycampaigndidnotachievetheKremlin'sproclaimedgoals:
strengtheningtheSyrianstateandpreventingIslamicradicalismfrom
spreading.ButtheKremlinhassucceeded,atleastpartially,withits
realagenda:Ithasbrokenitsinternationalisolationandforcedthe
Westtoacceptitasanactorthatcan'tbeignored,andithaspushed
theUkrainiancrisistotheperipheryoftheinternationalscene.
Moreover,Moscowhasreturnedtousingmilitaryleverageasan
instrumentofinternationalrelations.TheendoftheColdWarproved,
however,howdisastrousmilitaryescalationcanbeforasysteminan
advancedstateofdecay.ItcouldbeevenmoredevastatingforRussia,
whichisevenmoredependentontheWestthantheSovietUnion.
Hence,theoutcomeoftheKremlin'ssurvivalescapadesisuncertain.On
theonehand,itsforeignpolicyhasbeensuccessfulinbuildingnew
domesticlegitimacyatatimewhenitsinternalresourceshavebeen
crumbling.Ontheotherhand,ithasbecomeevidentthatthenexus
betweendomesticandforeignpoliciesistoocostlyandcouldsetoffa
timebomb.TheKremlintodayhastodealwithanundeclaredwarwith
Ukraine,anongoingwarinSyria,andaconfrontationwithTurkey.In
caseofendingtheseconflicts,theKremlinhastolookforanew
justificationforits"nationatwar"survivalmodel.Meanwhile,
Russians,whohaveturnedintoconsumerists,arenotgoingtosacrifice
theirlivingstandardsindefinitelyforwarsandasearchforenemies
thathavenoapparentconnectiontotheirinterests.The
military-patrioticdrughasstartedtowearoff.
Tryingtofindabalancebetweenconfrontationandcooperationwiththe
West,theKremlinoffersconflictingmessages.Fromtimetotimeit
appearstohavedecidedtoswitchtotheroleofPeacemaker."Wearenot
interestedinconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheWest"isoneof
Lavrov'sfavoriteslogans."DespitetheunfriendlystepsofourWestern
partnerswecontinuetofightagainstmovingdowntotheprimitive
confrontationalmodel,"theRussianForeignMinisterhasrepeatedagain
andagain,doinghisbesttoconvincethefewwhostillbelievethis
rhetoric.
OnehastolistentothewholeRussiansymphony,ofcourse.This
friendlyaccompanimentcan'toverpoweranothermuchlouderandmore
centralmelody:"Russiaisnotgoingtostepback."Russiarefusesto
live"inastateofsemi-occupation,"Putinhaswarned,startingwith
hisfamousFebruary2007speechinMunich.LavrovexplainswhyRussia
hasbeendissatisfied,
"OurWesterncolleagues[havesetonacourseof]preservingtheir
dominationinworldaffairsbyallpossiblemeans,onseizingthe
geopoliticalspaceinEurope....Ateachstageofthecrisis's
development,ourAmericancolleagues,andundertheirinfluence,also
theEuropeanUnion,havebeentakingstepsleadingtoescalation."
ChairmanoftheStateDumaSergeyNaryshkinechoesthis:"TheU.S.is
interestedininstabilitythatgivesthemthepossibilitytocontinue
oldandnewmischief."Peacefulstatements,aren'tthey?Russia'swarin
SyriaanditsconfrontationwithTurkeydemonstratethatMoscowcould
putonthewarhelmetanywhere,atanytime.Butconfrontationisnot
theKremlin'sgoal-notatall!TheRussianrulingteamisnotkamikaze,
evenifitsometimeslooksthisway.Confrontation,orratherthethreat
ofconfrontation,isthemeanstocreateafavorableinternational
environmentfortheRussianSystem,toforcetheWesttoacceptthe
Kremlin'sgameandtojustifytheanti-WesterninsulationofRussian
society.
HereishowPutinexplainshispolicy:Americaisguiltyofallevils
happeningtotheworld,butwearereadytoofferadialogueandgive
themachancetobehave.ThisistheusualPutinstatement:"Attempts
[byWashington,ofcourse]topromoteamodelofunilateral
domination...haveledtoanimbalanceinthesystemofinternationallaw
andglobalregulation,whichmeansthereisathreat,andpolitical,
economicormilitarycompetitionmaygetoutofcontrol...."Butthe
RussianPresidentgiveshopetotheworld:"Forallthedramaofits
currentsituation,Syriacanbecomeamodelforpartnershipinthename
ofcommoninterests,resolvingproblemsthataffecteveryone,and
developinganeffectiveriskmanagementsystem."InhisStateofthe
UnionmessagePutinsaid,"Weneedtostopallourargumentsand
overcomedifferences,andbuildpowerfulfist,aunitedanti-terrorist
front."
ThenewNationalSecurityStrategyofRussia,signedbythePresidenton
December31,2015,showstheverynatureoftheKremlin'spolitical
thinking.ThepriorityfortheRussianauthoritiesisnotthequalityof
lifeofRussiancitizens,butthedefenseofRussia.Butdefenseagainst
whom?Whoaretheenemiesthatforcethestatetospenditsshrinking
resourcesondefenseanddeterrencebutnotonsocialproblems?Itlooks
likethekeythreatis"unsustainabilityoftheglobalandregional
architecture,based,especiallyintheEuro-Atlanticregion,onlyonthe
NorthAtlanticAlliance."ThisisintheKremlin'sviewthekeythreat
toRussia.Whowoulddoubtit!ButtheKremlinisnotgoingtostartan
armsraceoranewColdwarwiththeWest.AstheNationalSecurity
Strategysays,Russia"issupportingstrengtheningoftheengagement
withtheEU"and"isreadyfordevelopmentofrelationswiththeNorth
Atlantictreaty,"andRussia'sgoalisthe"buildingofstrategic
partnershipwiththeUSonthebasisofequalityandcommoninterests."
Butwhatkindof"partnership"ispossiblebetweenRussiaandtheWest,
whoseexpansion"eastward"totheRussianborderallegedlyhasbrought
aboutthecurrentconfrontation?
Somecouldcallthisapproachpoliticalschizophrenia.Othersmayseeit
asdemonstrationofthecognitivedissonance.Iwouldrefrainfromthe
medicalterminologyandarguethatasoupofincompatibleingredientsis
thebestwaytoportraytheKremlin'sTriadparadigm:"Tobewiththe
WesttobeinsidetheWestandtobeagainsttheWest."ThisTriad,
withanemphasisonthefirsttwoelements,helpedtheKremlintoplay
theWest-andquitesuccessfully-duringtheprevious25years.Annexing
Crimea,theKremlinhadtobelievethattheWestwouldbeangrybutin
theendwouldbeabletostomachthenewgeographicallandscape.It
couldhavegonethisway,ifnotfortheaggressionagainstUkraine
Westernpatienceprovedlimited.
TheWorldofAmbiguity
TheKremlin'supdatedinternationalagendasoonrevealeditself.As
Putinsaid,the"Ukrainecrisis"isnotreallyaboutUkraineatall:"It
hasemergedinresponsetotheattemptsoftheUSAanditsWestern
allieswhoconsideredthemselves'winners'oftheColdWartoimpose
theirwilleverywhere."InMunichin2015,Lavrovacknowledgedthat
UkraineistheinstrumentthatshouldforcetheWestto"negotiateanew
securitysystemonthebasisofre-confirmingtheHelsinkiprinciples."
(Indeed,thereisanelementofhypocrisyinthesestatements:Ukraine
hasfortheKremlinanindependentvalueasanelementofRussia'sgalaxy.)
InDecember2015,intheinterviewforthemovieGlobalOrder,Putin
madeclearhispositiononthewarinSyria,statingthat"ISISisnota
crucialfactor"intheKremlin'sinternationalagenda.Thekeychallenge
fortheKremlin,Putindeclared,is"thegeopoliticalstruggle"andthe
needtoestablish"commonrules"basedon"internationallaw."(One
could,ofcourse,explorehisorhersenseofironybycontemplating
callstoobserveinternationallawfromtheRussianleader.)Hence,one
couldconcludethattheRussianauthoritiesthinkthatitistheright
momenttoforcetheWesttostartdiscussingthenewworldorder.To
debatetheepicdilemma-WarorPeace,orhowtodealwithGlobal
Disorder-isawell-knownSoviettrick.Itcouldtakedecadesbeforethe
Westernpartnersdiscoverthattheyhavebeenengagedwithsomeone
sellingair.Butthenagainperhapssomeofthemcouldfindthisprocess
profitabletoo.
AstheGermansocialistEdwardBernsteininthe19thcenturysaid,"The
processiseverythingandthegoalisnothing!"Leninlaterlikedto
paraphraseNapoleon("Ons'engageetpuitonvoit"):"Let'sgetfighting
andseewhathappens!"WeknowwhattheoutcomeofLenin'sprinciplewas
forRussiaandtheworldinthe20thcentury.Todaythisrecipeisthe
tacticofchoiceforapoliticalregimethatisnotreadytolosebut
hasnothingtooffer.
SomanytimestheRussianpoliticaleliteanditspunditscomplained
thatthecurrentorderisunjust,humiliatingforRussia,andprovoking
a"neo-Versaillessyndrome."TodaytheKremlindemandsareadjustmentto
theglobalrulessoastogiveRussiaamoredignifiedroleonthe
internationalscene.Thisisit!The"pivot"toChinaandallthefairy
talesabouttheBRICSbecominganalternativepolehavejustbeen
instrumentstopersuadetheWesterncapitalstorenewtheirengagement
withMoscow."Otherwisewe'lldoitwithBeijing!"theywarn,but
withoutmuchconvictionrecently.TheinterventioninSyriaandconflict
withTurkeyhavetogiveadditionalpersuasivenesstotheKremlinoffer.
Ofcourse,thenewdialoguehastobebuiltontheKremlin'sterms.The
Kremlin'sideaofdialogueisbasedonthebeliefthattheWesthas
historicallyexhausteditself,andthemomenthascomewhenRussiacan
suggestwhatLavrovrecentlydescribedas"movementtowardpartnership
ofcivilizations."True,hedoesnotexplainhowthispartnershipcanbe
achievediftheRussianleadershipcontinuesitsanti-Westerncrusade.
ButiftheWestisnotreadyfor"partnership",newattemptstopersuade
itwillfollow.
Butwhatistheblueprintofthe"newworldorder"suggestedbythe
Kremlin?Itisintentionallyvague.Putinhasbeenconstantlyreturning
toideaoftheYaltasettlement,whichlegitimizedareasofglobal
influence.Butdoeshereallybelieveinpossibilityofredrawingthe
bordersandreturningEasternEurope,togetherwiththepost-Soviet
space,intoMoscow'spocket?OrdoeshebelievethattheWest,together
withIranandtheSunnistates,willagreetodividetheMiddleEast
withRussia?Hardly.
Rhetoricmeansnothing.TheKremlinispursuinganexemplary
post-postmodernpolicycomprisedofincompatibleelementsandblurred
linesbetweenprinciplesandnorms,warandpeace,rightandwrong,
realityandimitation,allyandenemy,lawandlawlessness,andinternal
andexternalconflict.Thestate-intrudercouldeasilystartthe
struggleforpeace.Thetopicof2015Valdaiconferencewas"Societies
BetweenWarandPeace:OvercomingtheLogicofConflictinTomorrow's
World."TheKremlin,afterhavinginitiatedmilitaryconflict,has
decidedtoofferitsvisionofhowtoestablishalastingpeace.Very
Putinesque!(AndtheWesternpunditryreadilytookpartinthisKremlin
exercise.)
TheRussianSyrianwithdrawalisonemoreexampleoftheKremlin's
"post-postmoderntechnique."Itwasunexpected,anditcreated
uncertaintyastowhetheritwasatotalpullout,apartialone,oreven
notapulloutatall!2Hereyouare:theKremlinisenforcingits
versionoftheHobbesianworldorderithastobebasednoton
internationaltreatiesandtrust,butontheambiguity,uncertaintyas
totheintentionsoftheactors,andtheirreadinessforsurprise
breakthroughs.ThisorderhasnothingincommonwithYaltaorthe
EuropeanConcert!Inthosetimes,thearchitectsofthoseorders
followedtheiragreements,oratleasttheydidnotwanttobeblamed
fornotfollowingthem.3NowtheKremlinwantstohavetherightto
interprettherules.TheRussianrulingcorporationalsowantstohave
thepossibilityofinfluencingtheWestfrominsideoftheWestern
communityandusingallbenefitsofglobalizationandengagement.Global
OrderalaRusse!Machiavellilookslikeaschoolboycomparedtothe
Kremlin'stechnologists.
TheworldordertheKremlinofferstodayisevenmoreambivalentthan
thepost-communistworld,butthisisadifferenttypeofambivalence
thatreliesonthereadinessoftheilliberalactorforcoercive
pressure.ThefactthatMerkelandHollandetacitlyacceptedRussiaas
bothanintruderandamoderatorintheconflictoverUkrainegavethe
KremlintheimpressionthattheWestwouldsoonerorlaterendorsethe
approachithasbeenseeking.
Moscow'sSyrianadventuremerelyreinforcesthispattern,whichisbased
onanassumption(orbelief)thattheWest-especiallyEurope-willbe
forcedintheendtoplaytheKremlin'sgame.AsSergeiLavrovstressed
attheMunichSecurityconferenceinFebruary2016,theWesternpartners
aremoving"towardourunderstanding,"andthisis"veryencouraging."4
WelcometotheWorldofFuzziness!
Canthischimeralive?AsAndrewWoodwrote,anynewsecurity
architecture"wouldrequiresomecommonunderstandingoftheunderlying
facts".But"thatisnowabsentbetweenRussiaandtheWest".Besides,
Woodadds,suchconstruction"wouldalsorequiresomedegreeof
confidencebetweentheleadersofcountiestryingtobuildsucha
system,andthattooisnowabsent."
Butwhataboutthepragmatists'refrain,theonethattheyhavebeen
singingevenloudersinceRussia'sSyriaforay,about"common
interests"?BoboLo,associatefellowatChathamHouse,respondsto
thosewho"deludethemselves"thattheyshare"commoninterests"with
theKremlin:"Thedivergenceismuchmorefundamentalanddeeprooted.
NotonlyistheredisagreementoverRussia'sroleintheworld:Thereis
awideningchasmonglobalgovernance,internationallaw,andevenon
whatconstitutesstatebehavior."EventheWesternpragmatists,recently
staunchsupportersofjoint"strategicvision,"admit,"Weinterpret
differentlykeyprinciplessuchassovereignty,territorialintegrity,
andself-determination:wedifferoverwhatconstitutesthelegitimate
useofforcewedisagreeaboutlegitimacyofsphereofinfluence....
Toughcompetitionwasandremainsinevitable."Ithasbeenapparentfor
sometime,hasn'tit?
TheKremlin'stoolkithasmanyinstrumentstopursueitsagenda.One
hastobepreparedfortheKremlintosayonethingandmeananother,or
tomeannothingatall.Oldsymbolsandpatternsareinterpretedby
Moscowaccordingtoitscurrentgoals,aswithitsreferencestothe
"Yaltaarrangement."
Moreover,theKremlinisreadytobreakchina.ThisishowtheGerman
historianKarlSchlogelinterpretedPutin'sbehavior,"'Idon'twantto
acceptyouroldrulesofthegame'-andhehitsyouintheface."It's
enoughtoprovokeconsternationandshockamongWesternpartners
accustomedtopoliteness,correctness,anddiplomaticroutineoriented
towardcompromiseandmutualconcessions.
DoesPutinbelieveinfeasibilityofhisnew"GrandProject,"orishe
playingintheglobalcasino?Itdoesnotmatterwhathebelieves
anymorethepopularexercises,"WhatdoesPurtinthink"and"Whois
MisterPutin,"areawasteoftimebecausebothitsrhetoricandits
actionsaredesignedtoimitate,tomanipulate,andtohide
disorientationandhelplessness.I'llbettheKremlintechnologists
wouldloveustocontinueourendless"Putiniana"tryingtoguessthe
motivationsoftheKremlinbossinsteadofdeliberatingonthelogicof
theSystemandtheconsequencesofitsTriadsurvivaltactics.
Therearealotofvariablesthatremainunclear:thedegreetowhich
theKremlinunderstandsrealityandtheimplicationsofitsactionsits
readinessforself-restrainttheWest'sabilitytounderstandthe
Kremlin'sintentionsandputupaunitedfrontandfinally,thegravity
ofRussia'seconomicandsocialcrisisanditsdomesticimpact.Toomany
tippingpointsoreitherMoscow'sortheWest'sinabilitytodealwith
ambiguitycouldbringanotherconfrontationanymomentevenifthetwo
sidesinvolveddonotwantit.
Post-postmodernfuzzinesswouldbeacomfortableorderformanyinthe
West,too-forthosewholoathenormativedogmatism,orwhohavegrown
accustomedtotheseductive(andprofitable!)pragmatismofthepastfew
decades.ThisambiguousorderisthebestenvironmentforRussia's
rentierclasstomaintainitslinkswith"Londongrads"invarious
WesternstateswhilealsoinsulatingRussiansocietyfromWesternnorms
itwouldalsoallowtheRussianregimetobaseitsdomesticlegitimacy
onanti-WesternismwhilekeepingitsseatatthetableintheWest's
institutionsofinternationalgovernance.Thisambiguousworldwould
allowtheRussianSystemtocontaintheWestwithoutworryingaboutthe
threatofcontainmentandsubverttheWestfromwithin.Whatagreat
invention:lowcostsandhighrewards!TheColdWar,bycontrast,wasa
foolishstrategy.Muchbettertoblackmailyourfoeintoparticipating
inyoursurvivalproject.
True,therearetwotrapsintowhichRussiaandtheWestcouldfall
whilefollowingthisstrategy.Thefirstisthattherequirementsof
maintainingFortressRussiamaypreventtheKremlinfromachievinga
GrandBargainwiththeWest.Thesecondtrapis,fromtheWest'spoint
ofview,aCatch-22:AnybargainthatwouldallowtheKremlinto
interprettheglobalrulesofthegameasitchooseswouldunderminethe
coherenceandunityofWesternprinciples.Butrejectingthebargain
couldincitetheKremlinbulltowrecktheWesternChinashop.The
liberaldemocracieshardlyarereadyforaclashwithanuclearfoe.
Thisisadeadlock,andthereappeartobenowayout-atleastaslong
astheWestcontinuestodefendapost-ColdWarstatusquothatno
longerexists.
AreWeReadytoRethinkOutmodedIdeas?
IntheseessaysIhavetriedtopresentasnapshotofthestateof
expertopinioninstudiesofcontemporaryRussiaanditsrelationship
withtheWest,showinghowtheyrelatetoreality.Iregrettosaythat
25yearsagotheexpertsstruggledwithoutmuchsuccesstograspthenew
realitythesameistruetoday.
Thepragmatistshavesofarfailedtopredictandunderstandtheturn
thatRussiamadein2013-14anditsimplicationsforthecountry,for
internationalrelations,forEuropeansecurity,andevenforthe
trajectoryofliberalcivilization.We,thenormativists,havefailedto
alerttheworldofwhatwascoming."We'vebeensurprisedatevery
turn....WeweresurprisedwhentheywentintoCrimea,weweresurprised
whentheywentintoSyria,"saidSenateArmedServicesCommittee
ChairmanJohnMcCain(R-AZ).Iwouldadd:theworldwasequallybaffled
whentheKremlinannouncedthepulloutfromSyria.Surprisehasbeenthe
dominantcollectivereactiontoRussiasofar.FionaHill,directorof
theCenterontheU.S.andEuropeattheBrookingsInstitution:"Putin's
RussiapresentsauniquechallengetotheWestern-backedworldorder"
butrightnow"theWestdoesnotknowhowtorespond."
Weall(theRussianandtheWesternexperts)stillhaveavague
understandingofwhatthedeclineofRussia-thenuclearpetrostate,a
half-frozenempire,andoneofthearchitectsofglobalorder-might
bring.ItremainsunclearwhetherRussianrevisionismwilltriggerthe
creationofaglobalIlliberalInternational(therearesomesignsthat
wealreadyaredealingwithelementsofaglobalauthoritarian
offensive).5Ifitdoes,whatwilltheWesternresponsebe?Weareas
yetunpreparedforthecrisesofotherpost-Sovietsystemsandtheways
theywillaffectthesecurityandbalanceofforcesinEurasia.Itis
alsounclearhowunifiedandcapabletheWesternworldwillbewhenit
comestorespondingtothiscivilizationalandgeopoliticalchallenge.
Manyobserversseemtounderstandthatoldnarrativeshavebeen
exhausted.6Unfortunately,quiteafewamongusaretryingtoreinvent
themselvesmerelybyrecyclingoldrhetoric.We,thenormativists,have
beenunableasofyettofusethemoraldimensionandprincipleswith
thepoliticalinstrumentsapplicabletodecision-making-that,orwehave
beentootimidinourdebateswithopponents.
Fortheirpart,thepragmatistswhostilldominateRussianandEurasian
studiescontinuetobelievethatthemainactors-RussiaandtheWest-can
operatewithinthesamelogicalframeworkandcaninterpretthebalance
ofinterestsandviewconflictresolutionandcrisismanagementinthe
sameway.ButtheoperatorsoftheRussianSystemhaveanentirely
differentunderstandingofreality,andhavedifferentprioritiesand
meanstoachievethem.Asaresult,thepragmatistsfindthemselves
defendingeitherdefunctoroutdatedmodels,andtheiranalysisand
adviceoftenyieldtheoppositeofwhatthey'resupposedto.
Asamatteroffact,thepragmatistsnowfindthemselvesinamore
vulnerablepositionthanthatoftherealistsduringtheColdWar
period.Atthattime,theWestwaspreparedtocontaintheSovietsand
promoteitsprinciplesabroad,whiletheUSSR,atleastinitsfinal
stage,wasreadytoabidebyagreements.Today,however,the
pragmatists,whohaveborrowedtheconceptofbalanceofpowersand
otherrealistaxiomswhilerejectingthenormativedimension,arebeing
disarmedbyaRussianSystemthatisassertingitselfbybreaking
agreementsanddenyingthatithasdoneso,andbyimitatingprinciples.
Realismtodayinthepragmatists'handssoundslikeitcomesstraight
fromtheKremlin'splaybook.Infact,keypragmatistarguments-including
theirdogmason"commoninterests,"theneedtorespondtoRussia's
"grievances"andtheKremlin'sdemandsfor"equality",theirpivotto
geopolitics,theircallsto"accommodate"theKremlin"tosomedegree"
(towhatdegreeexactly?)andunderstanditsrighttohave"areasof
interests"-notonlyhavebeenhelpingtobuildafavorableenvironment
fortheRussianSystemofpersonalizedpowertheyhavealsobeen
disorientingtheKremlinandprovokingitsrecklessnessdomesticallyand
internationally,oftenendingindisasters(forRussiaaswell).Indeed,
thepragmatistsbearatleastpartialresponsibilityfortheKremlin's
latestactions,whicharebasedonthebeliefthattheWestwouldbe
readytoaccommodate-justasthepragmatistspromised!
Untilrecentlythepragmatistshavebeenbuildingtheirdiagnosisand
adviceonthebasisofRussianpollsthatshowskyrocketingapproval
ratingsforPutinandstrongsupportforhisanti-Westernpolicy.These
pollsaresupposedtojustifythepragmatistconclusion:"Youhaveto
takeRussia'asitis.'"ThismeansthatRussiansarehopelessandthey
can'taccepttheWesternnormsthatiswhytheWesthastoacquiesce.
ButhowwouldthepragmatistsexplainRussiatoday,whenRussiansare
growingrestlessandtheirsupportfortheauthoritieshasbegunto
wane?OneoutofeveryfourRussiansadmitstobeingafraidtovoicehis
(orher)truefeelingsaboutthesituationinRussia.Thiscouldmean
thatweshouldtaketheleader'shighapprovalratingswithagrainof
salt.ThepercentageofRussianswhothinkthatthecountryisheadedin
therightdirectionfellfrom64percentinJune2015to45percentin
January2016,andthenumberofRussianswhothinkthatRussiaisonthe
wrongtrackrosefrom22to34percent.Andthisisonlythebeginning
ofthetrend.Willthepragmatistscontinuetocallforaccommodatinga
regimethatislosingsupport?
Thepragmatistsstruggletoexplaintheparadoxes,orrathertraps,the
Kremlinhasbeenbuilding(oftenunexpectedlyforitself).Theyinsist
thatRussia'sactionsareultimatelygroundedinarationalbasis.But
how,then,doesoneexplaintheKremlin'spolitics,whichbrings
Russia'sisolationanddeepensitsinternalcrisis?Pragmatists
constantlyemphasize"theobjectivity"oftheirapproach.Buthowcan
oneclaimtoexplainRussia'sbehaviorifonedismissestheimpactof
norms,history,traditions,domesticdevelopments,andevolutionof
thought?Howusefulisthis"objectivity,"whichboilsdowntoa
descriptiveapproachandclumsyattemptstohideone'sownposition?And
howcanone'sclaimtoprovideaccurateassessmentswhensuch
assessmentsarebasedondatacherry-pickedfrompro-Kremlinsourcesand
fromthepro-Kremlinpunditcommunity?
Indeed,thepragmatistshavetounderstandthattheirtoolkithas
outliveditsusefulnessandisnolongerpersuasive.Buttheytryhard
toreinventshopwornaxioms,evenborrowingfromotherseeminglyalien
ideologicalandphilosophicalarsenals,creatinganunusualmix.The
latestexampleisthevoodoothatKissingerdemonstratedduringhislast
visittoMoscow,whenhehadhisritualmeetingwithPutinanddelivered
alecturethatwaswarmlyreceivedbythepro-Kremlingathering.7
TheRealpolitikgurupresentedtotallyfalseexplanationoftherootsof
thepresentconfrontation,whichallegedlywascausedby"thememoryof
thefirstpost-Sovietdecade,whenRussiasufferedastaggering
socio-economicandpoliticalcrisis,andtheU.S.enjoyeditslongest
periodofuninterruptedeconomicexpansion."This"memory"ofcrisis
duringtheAmericansuccessaccordingtoKissinger"causedallother
policydifferences."Ifthislogiciscorrect,thensoonweshould
anticipateaconfrontationbetweenEurope,whichisexperiencingthe
worstcrisisinitshistory,andAmerica,whichisdoingprettywell!
ButthejewelofKissingerianaisanotheridea.Kissingerarguesthat
thekeygoaltodayistofindacompromisebetweentheAmerican
(Western)perceptionoftheworld,whichreliesonlawsandrules,and
theRussianperception,whichhecalls"geopolitical,"avoidingany
mentionthatthisperceptionrejectstheruleoflaw."Thechallengeof
ourperiodistomergethetwoperspectives-thelegalandthe
geopolitical-inacoherentconcept,"arguestheguru.Thismeansmerging
ruleoflawprincipleswithsubjugationprinciples.Doestheauthorofa
new"philosophicalproblem"believeinthefeasibilityofhissolution?
HemayhaveforgottenhowtheattemptsofWesternandSoviet
intellectualstofindgroundsfortheirdreamof"convergence"of
capitalismandsocialisminthe1960sended.
Todaytheideaofnew"convergence"couldbringcertaindividendstothe
sidesimitatingthe"merger."Butwhatwoulditsstrategicconsequences
be?Itwoulddefinitelyhelptheilliberalsystemtolimpalongusing
theresourcesoftheWest,anditwouldalsounderminetheWest's
sustainabilityandresilience.Thatiswhythepro-Kremlinaudience
applaudedKissinger'slectureinMoscow.ThatiswhytheKremlinwill
continueits"coercivedating,"hopingthattheWestwillacceptthe
"merger."Willitreally?Iwouldremindyouthatthepreviousattempts
oftheWesternelitestoacquiescetotheRussianSystemhavenot
preventedthecurrentconfrontationbecausetheWestfailedto
understandonetruth:Intheilliberalmindset,everyconcessionmeans
backtracking,creatingadesiretopressthedemandsevenfurther.Do
thepragmatistsunderstandthattheirtacticsofacquiescenceerasethe
"redlines"forilliberalregimes,provokingrecklessbehaviorthat
otherwisetheywouldnotrisk?
TheWest'spunditclasshastorethinkquiteafewothermythsthatit
persistsinclingingto.OneofthemisthebeliefthattheWestern
expansionoftradeandeconomicrelationswithilliberalstateswill
bringabouttheirdemocraticchange(thepolicyGermanyhasbeen
pursuingfordecades).AsHannesAdomeit,aBoschPublicPolicyFellow
withtheTransatlanticAcademy,pointsout,thistradeandeconomic
expansion"canservetosolidifyanauthoritariansystemratherthanact
asdriverfordemocratizationandliberalization."
ExchangeanddialoguewiththeWestandslogansabout"engagement"also
helpilliberalactors,whoaremoreastuteaboutusingthemfortheir
ownpurposes.Maybethepragmatistsshouldtrytothinkaboutwhythis
happensbeforetheystartchantingtheirfavoritesong:Weneedto
broadentheexchange!Thistimetheexchangeagendaisdifferent:
insteadofbuildingacommon"strategicvision,"pragmatistssuggest
"managingtheRussia-Westernconflict"bymeansof"trustedindividuals
onbothsides"capableofengaginginconfidentialdialogueson
contentioustopics.Isn'tithilarious?Thosewhohavefailedtopredict
andunderstandtodaywantto"manage"theresultsoftheirfailures.
Finally,whenhavethepragmatistsaskedthemselveswhytheir
assessmentshavemissedthemark?Haveanyamongthemadmittedbeing
wrong?This"comingout"wouldbeveryhelpfulforrestoringthe
reputationoftheexpertcommunity.
Theinabilityofthepoliticalandexpertcommunitytorespondtonew
challengesoftencreatesanurgetomovethe"unsolvable"problemtothe
backburner,ortocomeupwithanimitationsolution.Thisiswhatis
happeningtodaywiththecrisisoverUkraine.Thiscrisis,despiteits
presentde-escalation,willcontinuetohaveatremendousimpacton
Europeansecurity,thegeopoliticallandscape,andthecivilizational
clashbetweentheWestandtheIlliberalInternational.Boththe
UkrainiansandtheWesthavebeenforcedtoreconcilethemselvestoa
illusorysolution(soasnottoirritateMoscow)thatdisorientsthe
world,undermineslegalframeworks,anddemoralizesWesternandglobal
institutions.Italsocreatesthepossibilitythatthesameprocessof
buildingamechanismforpretendingwillbeplayedoutelsewhere(some
pragmatistshavesuggestedthatweshouldusetheMinsk-2formulato
solvetheSyriacrisis),sincetheglobalsystemhasshownthatitis
notpreparedtoreacttogeopoliticalambiguityandimitation.
Duetoitscivilizational,normativedimension,theclashbetweenRussia
andtheWestinUkraineisboundtoinfluencetheapproachesthatboth
sidestaketofutureproblems.Let'snotdeceiveourselvesthatweare
dealingwithaphenomenonthatwillgoawayassoonPutincomestohis
sensesorleavesoffice,orwhenMoscowandtheWestbegintocooperate
somewhereelse.Letmereiterate:Wearedealingwiththelogicofa
particularcivilization-onewhosesurvivalresourcesaredwindlingand
whosepoliticalclassispowerlesstotransformthesystem-thatwill
continuetoreenergizeitselfthroughtheenemysearch(evenasit
cooperateswiththisenemy).
Let'sgivetheKremlinsomecredit:Today,bydemonstratingits
assertivenessandachievingtacticalgains,theRussianrulershave
shownusthattheWestneedstofocusmoreonitsownoutmoded
mechanismsandlackofstrategicvector.TheKremlinhasshowntheWest
thatitneedstorenewtheliberaldemocraticprinciplesthathavebeen
discreditedbyideologicalfuzzinessandaccommodation.
Giventhefailuresoftheexpertcommunity,canthenormativistsandthe
pragmatistsgettogetherforadiscussionaimedatclarifyingtheir
respectivepositions-iffornootherreason,thenatleastforthesake
ofsavingthereputationoftheexpertcommunity?Isthisarealistic
goal?Idon'thaveananswertothisquestionrightnow.
Inanycase,theWestneedstounderstandthattheRussianSystemis
willingtofightforitssurvival,andthatthisfightwilltakevarious
forms.Themosteffectiveformcouldbetotakeadvantageofthe
globalizationandintegrationoftheRussianrentierclassintothe
Westerncommunity,aswellasWesternpolitical,intellectual,and
expertweaknesses.It'stimefortheWesttowakeitselffromitsdreams
of"engagement."PullingoldColdWarrecipesoutoftheboxwon'thelp
eitherweliveinadifferentrealitytoday.Bydrudgingupobsolete
models,the"mythologists"couldtemporarilywintheday,butonlyat
thecostofbeingshockedbydevelopmentsitdidnotpredict.
Onethingisclear:arrivingatarealistic(notaccommodationist)
understandingofRussia'strajectory-perhapsthemainchallengeofthe
21stcentury-isimpossiblewithoutsomeseriousself-reflectiononthe
partoftheRussiaexpertcommunity.
Footnotes
1TheRussianpro-KremlinobserverVladimirFrolovadmitsthatPutin's
"SyrianGambit"wasaimedattransformingtherelationshipwiththeWest
andhelpingto"regainRussia'srightfulplaceasaglobalpower."But
evenapro-Kremlinobserverhastoacknowledgethata"newEntente
CordialebetweenRussiaandtheWestisunlikely."
2AfterPutinannouncedthepartialwithdrawal,thecommanderofthe
RussianforcesinSyria,GeneralAlexanderDvornikov,admittedthatthe
Russian"spetznaz"hasbeenoperatinginSyriaandwillcontinuetooperate.
3UlrichSpecksaysthattheinternationalsystemtheKremlinistrying
toenforce"recallsthe1930s,whenMussolini,Hitler,andStalinwere
tryingtoreplacetheexistinginternationalorderwithanewsystem
basedontheideathatonlymightmakesright-aDarwinistsystem
deprivedofeverytraditionalethicalorlegalconstraint."
4TheRussianparticipationintheAlepposiege,whichbroughtcollapse
oftheGenevapeaceprocess,wasenforcementoftheKremlin's"peace
plan"forSyria.
5Seediscussionofthe"AuthoritarianResurgence"intheJournalof
Democracy(January2015).
6SomeRussianpragmatistshavestartedtoexpressconcernsregarding
theKremlin'spolicy.FiodorLukianov,praisingRussiandiplomacy,says,
"[E]vengooddiplomatscan'tmasklackofpurposeintheforeignpolicy."
7AEI'sGaryJ.SchmittcommentedonKissinger'sapproachinhislecture
inMoscow,"Kissinger's'realist'approachisneitherrealisticinits
descriptionoftheproblemsintherelationshipnorinthepathto
addressthem."AlexMotyl,aprofessorofpoliticalscienceatRutgers
University-Newark,waseventougher,sayingthatKissinger'srecently
articulatedvisionforU.S.-Russiarelations"consistsoflargeswaths
ofboilerplatelanguageandseveraldisingenuousargumentsdemonstrating
thatthearchitectofdtentehasnoideahowtofixwhatPutinhasbroken."
#25
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines
www.rbth.ru
April21,2016
Atacrossroads:Theanxietiesofaglobalizedworld
InanRBTHexclusive,formerSovietleaderMikhailGorbachevwrites
abouttheinternationalcrisisofleadershipandthechallengesfacing
politiciansaroundtheworldinatimeofmoraluncertaintyandlackof
unityandvisionforthefuture.
MIKHAILGORBACHEV,SPECIALTORBTH
Whereistheglobalworldheadinginthe21stcentury?Peopleareasking
thisquestiontodaywithincreasinganxiety.AndIamoneofthem.
Withmyfriend,thelateHans-DietrichGenscher[foreignministerand
vicechancellorofGermanyfrom1974-1992-RBTH],weoftenaskedthe
followingquestion:Whatwentwrong?Ourgeneration-agenerationof
politicianswhosejointeffortscontributedtoendingtheColdWar-
carriedoutitsmission.Butthenwhyistoday'sworldunquiet,unjust
andmilitarized?
Itseemedthattheendoftheglobalconfrontationandtheunprecedented
possibilitiesofnewtechnologies,primarilyinformational,shouldhave
giventheworldanewbreath,makingeachindividual'slifebetter.But
realityhasturnedoutdifferently.
Thisdoesnothaveaneasyexplanation.Ioftenusedtosaythat
politicianswerenotuptopar.Thosewhodeclaredthevictoryofthe
WestintheColdWar,whorefusedtobuildanew,equitablesecurity
system,bearalargeportionoftheresponsibilityforthecurrentstate
oftheworld.Triumphalismisabadadvisorinworldaffairs.
Butthatisnottheonlyproblem.Thenewglobalworldisstillnot
understoodandinterpreted.Itneedsnewrulesofconduct,anew
morality.Buttheworldleaders,apparently,cannotgraspthis.
Ithinkthathereliesthemainreasonfortoday's"globaltroubles."
Whowonandwholostintheglobalworld?
Peopleareworriedaboutthetensionininternationalaffairs,butthey
arenolessworriedabouttheirownsituation,theirownfuture.Thisis
allinterrelated.
Eveninthemostdevelopedcountriesthemajority(themiddleclassis
thefoundationofeverysuccessfullydevelopingsociety)expressesits
dissatisfactionwithitslife.Votersaremorefrequentlysupporting
populistpoliticianswhoproposeapparentlysimplebutinreality
dangeroussolutions.
However,irresponsiblefinancialstructureshavewelladaptedtoand
benefitedfromglobalization,allblowing"soapbubbles"andmaking
billionsliterallyfromtheair.Thesebillionsfindtheirwayintoa
narrowcircleofpeoplewhohidethemfromtaxation.Wehavejustseen
newexamplesofthis.Butthisisjustthetipoftheiceberg.
Allthiswithoutmentioningthefactthatorganizedcrimestructures,
drugdealers,armsdealers,groupsprofitingfrommassivemigrantflows,
cybercriminalsandmostimportantly,terrorists,allfeelvery
comfortableintheglobalworld.
Politicalcrisis,leadershipcrisis
Worldpoliticshasstillnotfoundaneffectivesolutionforanyoneof
theseproblems.Meanwhile,anewroundofthearmsracehasbegun,the
ecologicalcrisisisgettingworseandthegapbetweenrichandpoor
countriesisgrowing,aswellasbetweentherichandthepoorwithin
individualcountries.Thesearetheproblemsthatmustbeonthetopof
theworld'sagenda.Buttheyarenotbeingsolved.Deadendsareeverywhere.
Andyetitwouldseemthattherearepossibilitiestoovercomethem,as
wellasmechanisms-thosethathaveexistedforalongtime,suchas
theUN,andnewones,suchastheG20,whichwascreatedtomeetthenew
challenges.Buthardlyanyonecansaythattheyhavebeensuccessful.
Theyarealwayslate,theyarealwaysbehind.
Wearefacedwithaleadershipcrisis,bothinternationalandnational.
Politiciansarejustoccupiedwith"puttingoutfires,"solvingthe
day'sproblems,crisesandconflicts.
Nooneisarguing.Theymustbesolved.Andinthelastweekstherehave
beensomepositivebreakthroughs.
ThereisdialogueonSyria.Eventhoughfornowitsbiggestparticipants
areexternalcountries,primarilytheU.S.andRussia.Butthishas
alreadyhelpedtoloosenthetensionsbetweenRussiaandtheWest.
Ifthistrendisdevelopeditcanthenbeappliedtootherspheresof
relations.Butthiswillbealengthyandcomplicatedprocess.Trusthas
beengreatlydamaged.
Ontheotherhand,therehavebeennobreakthroughstosolvingthe
Ukrainiancrisis.Thecurrentregulatorymechanismsareworkingpoorly.
Thereistheimpressionthatthemechanismsarebecomingaroutine.We
shouldnotabandonthemechanisms(theMinskagreements,theNormandy
Four).Butevidentlytheyneedtobecompletedandstimulatedtowork.
PossiblythroughdiscussionsintheUNSecurityCouncilorother
mechanismswiththeparticipationofRussiaandtheU.S.
WecannotleavetheUkrainiancrisisasanabscess,creatingafever
throughoutEuropeandtheworld.Europemaynotwithstandanotherfrozen
conflict.IagainaskpresidentsObamaandPutin(Ididthisforthe
firsttimein2014)tomeetanddiscussthiscontinuingcrisis.
Lookingfartherahead
Butevenifweareabletoovercometheacutecurrentcrisis,itwillbe
animportantbutonlyafirststeptosolvingamuchmorecomplex
problem:learninghowtoliveinaglobalworld.
Withoutaglobalcontextitisimpossibletounderstandthereasonsfor
andconsequencesofthecurrentconflictsanddeveloparenewedagenda
andresourcesforsolvingtheproblemsthatwillinevitablyariseinthe
world.
Intheworldpolicyagendathemostimportantthingistocorrectly
understandthepriorities.
TheRussell-EinsteinManifesto,[formerSwedishPrimeMinister]Olof
Palme'sideasoncontemporarysecurity,JohnKennedy'sspeechon"the
worldforeveryone,"theUSSRandtheU.S.GenevaDeclarationsin1985
(confirmedbyReykjavikandtheagreementstostopthenucleararms
race)-thesewereall"proposals"tocreatesuchanagenda,ontopof
whichwouldbeplacedhumanity'smainproblems.
Asoftodaytheseare:
-thecontinuousproblemofweaponsofmassdestruction,armsraces,the
militarizationofworldpolitics
-theproblemofpovertyandtheunderdevelopmentofanenormouspartof
humanity
-theecologicalchallenge,climatechange
-terrorism
Otheracuteproblemsaremassmigration,xenophobiaandreligious
intolerance,andtheproblemofco-existenceofvariouscivilizations.
Thecommondenominatorofalltheseproblems:notoneofthemcanbe
solvedmilitarily.
Tosaythatitisnecessarytouniteeffortswouldseemlikeanaxiom.
Butfornowdisunityandtheinabilitytoacttogetherareprevailing.
Governmentsandtheirleadersbearthemainresponsibilityforsucha
stateofaffairs.Theglobalworldnowhasotherparticipantsinworld
processes:civilsocietyorganizations,business,thescientific
community,religiousassociations.Buttheroleandresponsibilityof
governments,theirleadersandintergovernmentalorganizationsmust
remaindecisive.
Politicsandmorality:Therulesofconduct
Anotherimperativefortoday'sglobalworldisthenecessitytounite
politicsandmorality.
Thisisabiganddifficultproblem.Itcannotbesolvedinonefell
swoop.Butifwedonotfacethisproblemandworkassiduouslyto
solvingit,theworldwillbedestinedtoexperiencenewconflictsand
unsolvablecontradictions.
"Doublestandards"areespeciallydangerousintheglobalworld.All
possibilitiesforgovernmentstosupport(outoftheirinterests)
terroristandextremistgroupsmustbeexcluded,justlikesupportfor
anymovementpromoting"anarmedfight"tooverthrowlegalgovernments.
Relationsbetweengovernmentsintheglobalworldmustberegulatednot
onlybyinternationallegalnorms,butalsobycertainrulesofconduct
thatarebasedonprinciplesofhumanmorality.
These"rulesofconduct"mustincluderestraint,considerationof
interestsofallsides,consultationandmediationwhenthesituation
intensifiesandthereisathreatofacrisis.Iamconvincedthatit
couldhavebeenpossibletoavoidtheUkrainianandSyriancrisesif
theirdirectparticipantsandespeciallytheexternalpartieshadbeen
guidedbysuchrulesofconduct.
Ibelievethatrulesofconduct,asortofethicalcode,arealsoneeded
forthemassmedia.Theyarealsopartlytoblame.Oftentheyexcite
passionsandsullytheinformationalatmosphere.Insteadofhelpingto
preventandstopconflicts,theypracticallyparticipateinfuellingthem.
ThemostimportantthingthatIwanttosayisthatitisnecessaryto
puttheissuesoftherenewedagenda,thecombinationofmoralityand
politics,andtherulesofconductinaglobalworldatthecenterof
theattentionofgovernmentsandtheworld'scivilsociety.
Russia'srole
IamconvincedthatRussia'sroleinovercomingtheglobalpolitical
crisiscanandmustbeimportantandpositive.ItistimefortheWest
torenounceitsattemptstoisolateRussia.Thishasneverproduced
results."Personalsanctions"willdefinitelynotyieldanyfruit
either.Theyshouldbeliftedfirst.Otherwisetherewillbeno
dialogue,therewillbenochancestorestoretrust.
Nooneshouldexpectthatafterencounteringeconomicdifficulties
Russiawillacceptitssecondaryroleintheworld.Ifthishappenedno
onewouldbenefit.What'smore,everyonewouldonlylosefromanewCold
War.
Acoupleofdaysago,duringhis"DirectLine"ontelevision,Vladimir
PutinstatedhisintentiontonormalizerelationswiththeWest.But
willourpartnersbeabletoreadjusttoamoreconstructiveapproach?
Thisisstillunclear,butIcallonthemtodoso.
Currentlyweareinaverydelicatemoment.Wemustthrowawayour
emotionsandpropagandisticexcess.Seriousclaimscanberaisedagainst
today'sgenerationofimportantleaders.Butthisgenerationstillhas
theopportunitytobementionedwithdignityinthehistorybooks.And
itwouldbeabigmistakenottotakeadvantageofthisopportunity.
#26
Irrussianality
http://irrussianality.wordpress.com
LEGALBLOWBACK
ByPaulRobinson
UniversityofOttawa
Lawfare,accordingtoWikipedia,is'theillegitimateuseofdomesticor
internationallawwiththeintentionofdamaginganopponent,winninga
publicrelationsvictory,financiallycripplinganopponent,ortyingup
theopponent'stime.'Itishighlyquestionablewhatwouldconstitutean
'illegitimateuseofthelaw',butwhatistrueisthatcertainpeople
areturningtothecourtsasapoliticaltool,andthatsomecourtsseem
willingtohelpthembymakingwhatseemtobehighlypoliticized
judgements.
InMarchofthisyear,forinstance,aUScourtorderedIrantopay
$10.5billionindamagestorelativesofvictimsofthe11September
2001terroristattacksinNewYorkandWashington.AndtodaytheUS
SupremeCourtdeterminedthatIranmustpayalmost$2billionto
relativesofMarineswhodiedinanattackontheirbaseinBeirutin
1983.Yetinaninterviewthisweek,USpresidentBarackObamaopposed
attemptstosueSaudiArabiaforitsallegedroleinthe9/11attacks.
Obamadeclared:'Ifweopenupthepossibilitythatindividualsinthe
UnitedStatescanroutinelystartsuingothergovernments,thenweare
alsoopeninguptheUnitedStatestobeingcontinuallysuedby
individualsinothercountries.'Thusitiso.k.forAmericanstosue
Iranfor$10.5billionfor9/11,eventhoughIranwasnotresponsible,
butnoto.k.tosueSaudiArabia,eventhoughalinkismuchmorelikely.
ThisarbitrarinesshasnotpassedRussiansby.Russianofficialswere
particularlyriledbythe2014decisionofaDutchcourttoaward$50
billionindamagestoformershareholdersoftheoilfirmYukosforthe
allegedlyillegalseizureoftheirassets,despitethefactthatthe
RussianFederationhadnotratifiedthetreatywhichwasbeingusedto
passjudgementagainstit.Inamuchdiscussedarticlethisweek,
AleksandrBastrykin,headoftheInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussian
Federation,expressedhisfrustration,declaring:
"ClearexamplesarethedecisionsontheYukosaffair,thedecisionon
themurderofformerFSBofficerAleksandrLitvinenko,thereportofthe
Dutchsecuritycouncilontheresultsoftheresearchintotheshooting
downofMalaysianBoeingMH17,theinquirybytheAmericanFBIintothe
legitimacyoftheawardoftherighttoholdtheWorldCuptoRussiaand
Qatarin2018and2022,thekidnappingandforciblerenditiontotheUSA
andsentencingtoalongtermofimprisonmentofourcitizensViktor
BoutandKonstantinIaroshenko,etc."
Bastrykinisnotaloneinhisfrustration.Ina2014articleinthe
ReviewofCentralandEastEuropeanLaw,RussianlegalscholarMikhail
Antonovnotesthatdisenchantmentwiththeapplicationofinternational
humanitarianlawhasdrivenRussianjuriststobecomeincreasingly
conservativeanddeterminedtodefendRussiansovereignty.Thistrend
culminatedthisweekinadecisionbytheRussianConstitutionalCourt
toignoreademandbytheEuropeanCourtofHumanRights(ECHR)that
prisonersshouldbeallowedtovoteinelections.AccordingtoRT,this
'wasthefirstimplementationofalawintroducedinDecember2015.This
actallowstheConstitutionalCourttooverrulethedecisionsof
internationalcourtsifsuchdecisionscontradicttheprincipleof
supremacyoftheRussianConstitution.'
TodateRussiahashadanexcellentrecordinimplementingECHR
decisions-farbetterinfactthanmanyWesternEuropeancountries.
ThisreflectedtheimportancegiventotheruleoflawbytheRussian
authorities.IbelievethattheDecember2015lawmentionedaboveand
theConstitutionalCourt'sdecisionarethereforestepsinthewrong
direction.Buttheyareperhapsinevitableconsequencesofwhatisseen
asthebiasedimplementationofinternationallaw-legal'blowback',if
youlike.
Fortunately,asignthatthingsmightbechangingcamethisweekwith
anothercourtdecision-thistimebyanotherDutchcourt,overturning
theoutcomeofthe2014Yukoscase.TheUSSupremeCourt'sjudgement
againstIransuggeststhattheAmericansarelosingnoneoftheir
appetitefor'lawfare',buttheYukoscasesuggeststhatperhapsthe
Europeansare.
#27
ChristianScienceMonitor
April20,2016
Revivalofdiplomacy?Ukraine,Russiamakeprogressonprisonerswap.
TheexchangeofUkrainianhelicopterpilotNadiyaSavchenkofortwo
Russianservicemenappearstobemovingahead.Butthedealcouldalso
reopenthequestionofjusthowinvolvedRussiaiswithUkraine's
easternrebellion.
ByFredWeir,Correspondent
MOSCOW-AdealappearstobeintheworksbetweenMoscowandKievto
exchangecapturedUkrainianhelicopterpilotNadiyaSavchenko,recently
sentencedto22yearsinaRussianprison,fortwoRussianservicemen
convictedof"terrorism"inaKievcourtthisweek.
Butwhiletheapparentagreementoffersararepointoflightinthe
frayedrelationshipbetweenthetwocountries,italsocouldreignite
thequestionofjusthowinvolvedRussiahasbeenandcontinuestobein
therestiveDonbassregionofUkraine.
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkoannouncedthatan"algorithm"had
beenagreedtofacilitatethepossibleexchangeofMs.Savchenko,which
couldhappeninthenextfewdays.Mr.PoroshenkoandRussianPresident
VladimirPutinheldareportedlyconstructivetelephoneconversation
abouttheprospectiveswap,amarkedreturntodiplomacyinbilateral
relationsaftertwoyearsofwar,bothhotandcold.
TherepatriationofSavchenko,whosedefianceofherRussiancaptorshas
earnedhernationalherostatusandaplaceintheUkrainianparliament,
wouldremoveoneofthemostprominentirritantsinthe"information
war"betweenthetwo.ItmayalsohelptoimproveRussia'simagein
Europe,wheresupportforrenewinganti-MoscowsanctionsinJulyis
alreadylookingshaky.Butitcomesastheconflictisonceagain
escalatingalongthebattlefrontineasternUkraine.
Savchenko,ahelicopterpilotwholefttheUkrainianArmytofightwith
apro-Kievvolunteerbattaliontwoyearsago,saysshewascapturedon
thebattlefieldbyrebelforcesandillegallytransportedtoRussia,
whereshewaschargedwiththemurderoftwoRussianjournalists.She
deniedthecharges,putupasteadyshowofdefianceinthecourtroom
andliterallylaughedwhenthejudgereadouthersentence.Shealso
launchedahungerstrike,whichshesuspendedonTuesdaywhenMr.
Poroshenkopersonallycalledandaskedhertodoso.
RussiaintheDonbass
ThecircumstancesaroundthetwoRussians,AlexanderAlexandrovand
YevgenyYerofeyev,whowerecapturedincombatineastUkrainelast
year,aremurkierthanthosearoundSavchenko.
UkrainianexpertsinsistthattheKremlin'swillingnesstonegotiatefor
themisproofthattheywereregularRussiantroops,partofalarge
invadingforcethattoreUkraineapartfollowingtheMaidanRevolution
inearly2014,evenasMoscowdeniedanydirectinvolvement.Thetwomen
initiallyadmittedtobeingoperativesoftheGRU,Russianmilitary
intelligence,butlaterretractedthoseconfessionsandsaidtheywere
justex-military"volunteers"withtheUkrainianrebels.
TheirreturntoRussiaundertheproposeddealwillprobablyreignite
thatvexingquestion.WhilethestandardUkrainiannarrativearguesthat
separatismintheeasternregionofDonbassfollowingtheMaidan
RevolutionwasentirelyMoscow-made,theactualextentofRussian
interventionhasprovenextremelydifficulttopindown.AndRussian
expertsarguethatthecaseofMr.AlexandrovandMr.Yerofeyevisno
smokinggun.
"Ofcoursethereisnowaythatragtagrebelarmycouldhavedefeated
theUkrainianforcesinthosedecisivebattlesaroundDonetskin2014
andearly2015withoutRussianhelp,"saysSergeiStrokan,international
affairscolumnistfortheMoscowdailyKommersant."ButtheRussianside
hasdevelopedthislegalformula,whichsaysthatlotsofRussian
'volunteers'crossedovertohelptherebels,butnoregularRussian
troops."
"Youmaysayit'sadistinctionwithoutadifference,butitlets
Russianauthoritiesoffthehook,"saysMr.Strokan."Arguingoverit
hasalreadyproventobeadeadend."
Politicalwins
Bothcaseshaveprovenproblematicintheirexecution.TheSavchenko
trialwasperceivedaroundtheworldaspoliticallymotivated,andhuman
rightsexpertssayitwasriddledwithirregularities.Thetrialof
AlexandrovandYerofeyevwasmarredbythegrislyabductionandmurder
ofAlexandrov'slawyer,presumablybyUkrainianultra-nationalists.
Assuch,theresolutionsaswapwouldbringwilllikelybenefitboth
sides-atleastpolitically.
"PutinshouldbegladtogetridofSavchenko,becausehercase
attractedtoomuchattentionandshebecameasymbolofUkrainian
resistance,"saysViktorNebozhenko,directoroftheindependent
UkrainianBarometersociologicalagencyinKiev."Bothpresidentswill
gainabigPRvictoryfromthis.InRussiatheywilllaunchabig
campaigndeclaring'weneverleaveourpeoplebehind,'andthesame
thingwillhappenhere[inUkraine].Ontheeasternfront,however,it
won'tchangeathing.Peoplewillgoondyingeveryday."
#28
BostonGlobe
April20,2016
PopeFrancis,askmoreforUkraine
ByLevGolinkin
LevGolinkinistheauthorof"ABackpack,aBear,andEightCratesof
Vodka."
ThefewjournalistswhostillreportfromeasternUkraineinvariably
describeitasaninvisiblecatastrophe.It'sanaptoxymoron.First,a
regionthesizeofConnecticut,rightinthemiddleofEurope,was
turnedintoanapocalypticwastelandwhere3millionciviliansremain
cut-offfrombasicnecessities.Then,itwaspromptlyforgotten.
PopeFrancisdecidedtochangematters.OnApril3,thepontiffissueda
rareandfar-rangingcall,earmarkingmoneycollectedbyEuropean
churchesduringtheApril24Sundayservicesforhumanitarianaidfor
victimsofabrutalandongoingconflict.Yet,whiletheattentionis
direlyneeded,it'snotenough.CatholicsinNorthAmerica-reallyall
Americans-mustalsobecalledupontohelp.
Twoyearsagothismonth,warbrokeoutbetweenKievandRussian-backed
rebelsintheDonbassminingregionofeasternUkraine.Shortly
thereafter,Donbass'chiefexportwentfromcoaltowarcrimes.
Ukraine'sindustrialheartlandwastransformedintoadevelopingnation.
Theconditionsareunfathomable.Inthe21stcentury,thereare
outbreaksoftuberculosisandHIVbecauseKievbattalionsblocked
medicalsuppliesfromreachingtherebel-heldareaswhiletherebels
expelledDoctorsWithoutBordersonchargesofbeingspies.Inthe
middleofEurope,elementaryschoolsnowhaveclassesonrecognizing
explosives.NeithertherebelsnorKievforcesbotheredmarking
minefields,andchildrenkeepgettingblownapart.Indiscriminate
shellingofcivilianareasdestroyedinfrastructurefrompowerplantsto
watertreatmentfacilities,leavinghundredsofthousandswithout
drinkablewaterandelectricity.TheWorldFoodProgramjustadded
Ukraine-oncethebreadbasketofEurope-toitslistofcountriesin
desperateneedoffood.UkraineistheonlyEuropeannationonalist
dominatedbytheMiddleEastandsub-SaharanAfrica.
HighlyconservativeUnitedNationsestimatesplacethewar'stollat
morethan10,000casualties2millionrefugeesandinternally-displaced
personsandof3millionpeoplewhoremainintheconflictarea,nearly
halfareconsidered"highlyvulnerableandinneedofassistance."Many
areelderlyorthepoorwhohavenomeanstoflee.
Ordinarily,theeyesoftheWestwouldberivetedonUkraine,justas
theywereontheatrocitiesofYugoslaviainthe1990s.Butshortly
afterthewarbegan,afogofpropagandadescendedonDonbass,creating
achaosthatbecameimpenetrablefortheglobalmedia.
Kievofficiallydesignatedtheconflictan"anti-terroristoperation,"
orATO,andDonbassastheATOzone.MoscowpropagandapaintsallKiev
supportersas"neo-Nazis."Thetermseffectivelydehumanizedthe3
millioncivilianstrappedintheconflictzone:Neitherterroristsnor
neo-Nazisdeservemercy.
Accusationsandcounter-accusationsswirlingaroundUkrainetransformed
itfromaslaughteryardintoaquestionof"spheresofinfluence"
betweenRussiaandNATOora"standoff"betweenKievandMoscow.The
rareheadlinesoutofUkrainerecentlyfocusonwhichsideisviolating
thelatestcease-fireattempt,orthepoliticalsquabblesinKiev-not
theciviliansforwhomabduction,torture,landmines,starvation,and
murderarenowapartoflife.ItisasifMassachusettsandNewYork
engagedinascorched-earthwar,andnoonebotherstomentionthe
peopleofConnecticutcaughtin-between.
PopeFrancisaddressedthesituationintypicalJesuitfashion-he
quicklyslashedthroughthepolemicsofspheresandstandoffs,Nazisand
terrorists,andcalledonthefaithfultoaidthevictims.
Excepthecalledonthewrongcontinent.
ThepapalcollectionforUkraineextendstochurchesinEurope,butnot
NorthAmerica.Undernormalcircumstancesthiswouldmakesense,since
Europeanshaveageographicinterestinaidingtheirneighbors.The
problemtodayisthatCatholicstrongholdslikeItaly,France,and
AustriaarealreadystrainedtothebreakingpointbecauseoftheSyrian
migrantcrisis.It'shardtoexpectWesternEuropeanstofocuson
sufferinginUkrainewhentheyareconsumedbythebiggestinfluxof
humanitysinceWorldWarIIunfoldingintheirowncities.
TheparishesbestpoisedtocontributetotheVatican'sappealareon
thissideoftheAtlantic.Americanbishopshaveauniqueopportunityto
standinsolidaritywithEurope.AseparateUScollectionforUkraine
wouldallowBoston,Chicago,NewYork,andLosAngelestojoinPope
Francis'historicmissioncenteredonthatsacredtenetofbothreligion
andAmericandemocracy-protectingtheinnocent.Itwouldaidmillions
whoareneitherterroristsnorneo-Nazis,butcivilianswhoseonlysin
wasthemisfortuneoflivinginwhathasbecomeUkraine'smisery.
#29
Sputnik
April21,2016
Kremlin:RussiatoBeHappyIfUkraine'sAssociationWithEUYieldsSuccess
MOSCOW(Sputnik)-RussiawouldbehappyiftheEUAssociationAgreement
withUkraineyieldedanysortofsuccessforKiev,Kremlinspokesman
DmitryPeskovsaidThursday.
"OfcourseRussiaisinterestedthatitsneighborsarepredictable,
economicallyindependent,and,Iwouldsay,stableandflourishing.If
thisagreementhelpsUkrainetoreachsomesortofparameterinreaching
itsgoals,thenobviouslywewouldonlybehappy,"Peskovtoldjournalists.
However,iftheUkraine-EUAssociationAgreementhasnegativeeffectson
Russia,Moscowwilltakenecessarystepstobalancethesituation,
Peskovsaid.
"ThisisthetopicthatIthinkconcernstheEuropeanUnionandUkraine
toagreaterextent.Intheeconomicpart,asitcouldaffect
Russian-UkrainianrelationsandRussia'seconomicrelations,wewill,of
course,thoroughlymonitorpossiblenegativeimplications.Ifsuch
effectsappear,thenwewill,ofcourse,takethenecessarymeasuresof
balancingnature,"Peskovtoldreporters,speakingaboutthepossible
impactofEU-UkraineassociationontheirrelationswithRussia.
In2014,KievandBrusselssignedanagreementaimedatUkraine's
politicalassociationandeconomicintegrationintothebloc.The
agreementseekstocreateafreetradezonebetweenUkraineandthe28
EUmemberstates.
TheagreementhastoberatifiedbyalltheEUmemberstates.Bythe
momentithasbeenratifiedby27countriesexceptNetherlands.Dutch
citizensvotedagainstthedealattheadvisoryreferendum,however
country'slawmakersvotedagainstrefusingtoratifytheagreement.
#30
http://gordonhahn.com
April19,2016
The20April2014EasterAttack:AgainonRightSectorandtheMakingof
theUkrainianCivilWar
ByGordonM.Hahn
Theanti-MaidantakeoversofOGAsandothergovernmentbuildingsacross
DonetskandspreadingtoLuhanskfromApril12-14cameafterKievhad
beendiscussingpubliclyformorethanaweekitsintenttocarryoutan
'anti-terrorist'operationagainstwhatthenweremereprotestersin
restlessDonbass.Moreover,theanti-MaidantakeoversinMarchandearly
Apriltherewereinresponseto,andidenticalwiththepro-Maidan
takeoversofKievgovernmentbuildingsandregionalOGAsinwinter.The
Donbass'seventswereescalatinginresponsetoKiev'sactions.By
sundownon14April2014,actingUkrainianpresidentOleksandr
Turchynov'sdeadlineof6pmforthoseoccupyinggovernmentbuildingsin
theeasttoleavehadexpired.Donetsk'santi-Maidanprotestersand
armedrebelshadtakencontrolofsomegovernmentbuildingsinmany
citiesacrosstheoblast,includingArtemevsk,Druzhkivka(Druzhkovka),
Horlivka(Gorlovka),Kramatorsk,Makiivka(Makievka),Mariupol',
Slovyansk(Slavyansk),Yenakiieve(Yenakieve),andZhdanivka
(Zhdanovka).Bytheeveningofthe14thofAprilthefirstcasualtiesof
theATO-oneSBUofficerkilledandfivewoundedinSlavyansk-hadbeen
registeredwhenSBUspecialforcesattemptedtore-takesecurity
buildings.[1]ThousandsofUkrainianarmytroopsandlargely
neofascist-manned'volunteerbattalions'armedwithtanksandheavy
artilleryandsupportedbyairpowerwereonthemarcheast.Bythetime
Donbassiansawokeonthemorningofthe15th,Kiev's'anti-terroroist'
operation(ATO)wasalreadyinaction.Thatdayaforceof500Ukrainian
soldiers,20APCs,and2helicoptersdescendedonSlavyansk.[2]
Ukraine'scivilwarhadbegun.Certainly,MaidanKiev'scivilwaror
'ATO'couldnothavebeenareactiontoaRussianinvasionor
intervention.EventheSBUstatedthattheinfamousandover-credited
Girkin-StrelkovhadonlyarrivedinDonbassonthe12th.Evenasa
responsetotheDonbassrebels'firstviolenceinSlavyanskonthe14th,
Kievwasoverreactingtoevents.Theoverreactionwasdrivennotonlyby
theMaidan'sneofascistelement'sfervorforwar.Itwasalsodrivenby
fearofwhatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinmightbeplanningin
DonbassgivenhisactionsinCrimea.Uncertaintyisnotarecipefor
stability.
YettherewasonelastchancetoavertwarinDonbass.Itwouldbe
scuttledbythenewregime'sshocktroops-theneo-fascistRightSector
(RS)ledbyDmitroYarosh.
GenevaFailure
Withthesituationspinningoutofcontrolontheground,actorsonthe
internationallevelintervenedagain.Moscowhadwarnedthatanyattack
onDonbassianswouldputtalkswithWashingtonandBrusselsscheduled
forGenevalaterthenextweekatrisk.[3]OnApril16-17thetop
foreignaffairsofficialsoftheU.S.,EU,Ukraine,andRussiametin
Genevainalastditch,belatedefforttoavoidcivilwarinUkraine.
UnlikethetalksinKievthatproducedtheFebruary21stagreementand
includedthepro-Maidanoppositionpartyleaders,neithertheDonbass
rebelsnoranyrepresentativesfromDonbasstookpartinGeneva.On
April17ththesidessignedavagueceasefireagreement,a"joint
statement,"consistingofaspirationaldeclarationsforaceasefire,
withdrawalfrombuildings,andtheinitiationofa"nationaldialogue"
onanewconstitutionratherthanconcretestepsforimplementationand
support.Ifnotfortheletterhead,theentiredocumentwouldhavefit
easilyononepage.Itreadinfull:
"TheGenevameetingonthesituationinUkraineagreedoninitial
concretestepstode-escalatetensionsandrestoresecurityforall
citizens.Allsidesmustrefrainfromanyviolence,intimidationor
provocativeactions.Theparticipantsstronglycondemnedandrejected
allexpressionsofextremism,racismandreligiousintolerance,
includinganti-Semitism.Allillegalarmedgroupsmustbedisarmedall
illegallyseizedbuildingsmustbereturnedtolegitimateownersall
illegallyoccupiedstreets,squaresandotherpublicplacesinUkrainian
citiesandtownsmustbevacated.Amnestywillbegrantedtoprotesters
andtothosewhohaveleftbuildingsandotherpublicplacesand
surrenderedweapons,withtheexceptionofthosefoundguiltyofcapital
crimes.ItwasagreedthattheO.S.C.E.SpecialMonitoringMission
shouldplayaleadingroleinassistingUkrainianauthoritiesandlocal
communitiesintheimmediateimplementationofthesede-escalation
measureswherevertheyareneededmost,beginninginthecomingdays.
TheU.S.,E.U.andRussiacommittosupportthismission,includingby
providingmonitors.Theannouncedconstitutionalprocesswillbe
inclusive,transparentandaccountable.Itwillincludetheimmediate
establishmentofabroadnationaldialogue,withoutreachtoallof
Ukraine'sregionsandpoliticalconstituencies,andallowforthe
considerationofpubliccommentsandproposedamendments.The
participantsunderlinedtheimportanceofeconomicandfinancial
stabilityinUkraineandwouldbereadytodiscussadditionalsupportas
theabovestepsareimplemented."[4]
AtapressconferenceafterthesigningUSSecretaryofStateKerryput
theonusforcompliancewiththeagreementbytheDNRfullyonthe
Russianside,muchasheandPresidentObamahadwiththeFebruary21st
agreement:"Responsibility(forsuccessfulimplementation)willliewith
thosewhohaveorganisedtheirpresence,providedthemwiththeweapons,
puttheuniformsonthem,supportedthem,andhavebeenengagedinthe
processofguidingthemoverthecourseofthisoperation."[5]Butas
notedabove,therebelforceswereactingspontaneously,still
unorganized,andpoorlyarmedandequipped.Thiscouldnotbesaidfor
MaidanKiev.
OrthodoxEasterCeasefireandtheRSAttackatSlavyansk
TheonepositivethatcameoutoftheagreementwasanEasterceasefire,
butitwasimmediatelyunderminedbyafamiliarculprit.Fromthe
outset,theneofascistsofYarosh'sRSandOlehTyahnybok'sSvoboda
Party(SP)weredeterminedtowagewaragainsttheDonbass.Towardsthis
end,ontheverydaytheceasefireagreementwassigned,aRSmilitant
ofthevolunteerbattalionsjustmovingintoDonbassfromthewest
detonatedagrenadeinahazyincidentkillinghimselfandtwoDonbass
rebelswhoallegedlyattackedhimatarebelcheckpointnear
Slavyansk.[6]Dayslater,onApril20th,EasterSunday,RSmilitants
appeartohavecarriedoutacoordinatedattackonanotherSlavyansk
checkpoint,scuttlingtheceasefire.TheattackleftthreeSlavyansk
rebelsdeadandfourwoundedandoneRSfighterkilledandtwowounded.
Ukraine'sSBUintelliegenceservice,however,accusedMoscowandallied
"saboteurs"ofcarryingouta"cynicalprovocation,"while
simultaneouslydenyingthattherewereanyUkrainianorganizationsof
anykindinthearea:"Ithasbeenestablishedthatonthatnightin
Slavyansktherewasnotoneorganizationbesidessaboteursand
representativesofthecriminalswhotheGRUofthegeneralStaffofthe
ArmedForcesoftheRussianFederationsupportandarm.Thiswas
establishedbyoperationalinvestigativeactivityatthesiteby
Ukraine'slawenforcementagencies."[7]TheNationalSecurityand
DefenseCouncil'sdeputysecretaryViktoriyaSumarbrushedoffonher
FacebookpageanyRSinvolvementas"Russianpropaganda":"Reportsby
Russianjournalistsaboutashootoutbetweensupposedlythe'Right
Sector'and'self-defenders'beinginSlavyanskbasedonsome'business
cardsofYarosh'and'unknownweapons'andthenumberofkilledwhich
growsbythehourandsomeother'details',evidenceofwhichnoonehas
seen,isatypicalformofRussianpropagandawhichnotonlymany
Russianbutalsomanyotherforeignmassmediacirculatetoday."Sumar
addedthattheeventwasdesginedbyMoscowtogivetheappearanceofa
civilwarandjustifyaRussianinvasionofUkraine.[8]
TheMaidanregime'ssilovikiappearedtobecoordinatingthe
disinformationwiththeneofacists,sinceRSspokesmanArtemSkoropadsky
alsoissuedadenial,sayingSlavyanskwasa"blasphemousprovocation
fromRussia:blasphemousbecauseittookplaceonaholynightfor
Christians,onEasternight.ThiswasclearlycarriedoutbyRussian
specialforces."[9]InanofficialstatementonitsVKontakepage,RS
againdeniedhaving"anyrelationship"tothe"operation"inSlavyansk,
adding:"AnyattempttotietheseactionswithRightSectorhaveonly
onegoal-toprovokefearofRSactivistsamongtheinhabitantsof
EasternUkraine."Theparty,thestatementclaimed,had"runintoan
unprecedentedinformationattacksupportedbyfalsifications,intrigues,
andmanipulationsofthefactsbyRussianmassmediacontrolledbythe
Kremlin."Atthesametime,RSacknowledgedthatits'activists'were
"nowsubordinatedtothestate'sorgansofcoercion"(silovieorgany)
andthustheiractionswerewithinthelegallimits.[10]Inthisview,
theATOdeclaredbyUkraine'sgovernmentandtobecarriedoutbyits
silovikiprovideda'legal'frameworkforRStocarryoutthe
'operation'itsupposedlyhadnotcarriedout.
TheRussianForeignMinistryexpressedoutrageoverthekillingof
"innocent,peacefulcitizens,"regardeditasabreachoftheEaster
ceasefire,andblamedRightSector,addingthattheincident"testifies
toalackofdesireonthepartoftheauthoritiesinKievtoreinin
anddisarmnationalistsandextremists."[11]Ukraine'sforeignministry
inturnreproachedRussiaforrushingtojudgmentandfailingtofulfiil
itsobligationsundertheGenevadeal:"TheRussiansidemustbe
remindedabouttheirobligationsundertheGenevaagreementtobringall
necessaryinfluencetobearonseparatiststoclearillegallyheld
buildings,unblockroads,laydownarmsandpreventanybloodshed."[12]
YetdespitealltheofficialdenialsfromMaidanKievandtheRS,ayear
laterinaBBCinterview,Yaroshacknowledgedhetookpartincombaton
thatdayinSlavyansk.HealsoclaimedthatatthistimeRSalreadyhad
anunlikely10,000fightersinthevolunteerbattalionsofitsVolunteer
UkrainianCorps(DobrovolchiyUkrainskiyKorpus)orDUK.[13]Later,an
RS-affiliatedwebsiteincludedonitslistofheroicmemberskilled
duringtheATO,MikhailoStanislavenko,notinghewaskilledin
Slavyanskon20April2014.[14]Onthatdaytherewasonlyoneviolent
incidentinSlavyansk.
ForensicsevidencelateremergedfurtherconfirmingRSmilitants'
involvementintheincident.Forexample,two2016Ukrainiancourt
decisionsshowthatprosecutors'investigationshaddeterminedthattwo
RSfighterswerewoundedintheEasterattackandthattheyhadusedthe
verysamefirearmsusedonMaidanon18February2014tokilltwoMVD
troopsandwoundthreemore.Moreover,aneyewitnessreportedthatone
oftheSlavyanskseparatistskilledatthecheckpointwasshotbya
sniperand,forensicshasshownthesniperusedthesamekindof
expanding7.62mmcaliberbullets,whichwererecoveredatthesiteof
theattackatthecheckpoint,thatwereusedonMaidanandwiththesame
kindofAKMandhuntingcarbinesbasedontheKalashnikovassaultrifles
usedonMaidan.Also,Yarosh'sbusinesscard,alistwithnamesof
severalotherRSleaders,andanRSbattalion'sSecurityService
medallionnumber20wereseizedbyseparatistsduringthefight.Yetthe
involvementofRSintheattackwasimmediatelydeniednotjustbythe
RSbutbytheSBU,theMVD,theNationalSecurityandDefenseCouncil,
andpro-Maidanmedia,claimingagainwithoutanyevidencethatthe
Yaroshbusinesscardandotherevidencewerefabrications.[15]
Thus,severalfactssuggestthattheRSandultra-nationalistelements
intheSBUandtheNationalSecurityandDefenseCouncil,suchasits
chiefParubiy,stoodbehindtheEasterattack.First,thecouncil,the
SBUandotherstateorgansissuedwhatwasthenstillatleast
unverifiableanditappearsknowntobefalseinformationindesignating
theattackaRussianprovocationanddenyingRS'sinvolvement
involvementlateracknowledgedbytheRSitselfanddocumentedincourt
documents.ThisisconsistentwiththeMaidanUkraine'spracticeof
excessiveandnon-crediblestrategiccommunicationsanddisinformation,
usuallyblamingMoscow,suchaswasthecaseinthesnipers'massacre
andeventstocomeinOdessainMay.Second,theinvolvementofYarosh
andtheRSelementssuggestsaMaidan-styleprovocation,giventhe
historyoftheMaidansnipers'massacreandeventstocomeinOdessa.
Third,casualtiesweregreaterontherebelside,suggestingtheywere
attackedfirstbyYaroshandhisRSfighters.Indeed,Yaroshinthe
interviewayearlatermentionedabovedoesnotrefertotheclashasa
rebelorRussianattackorprovocation.WithKiev'sattackatSlavyansk,
theceasefireended.Ukraine'scivilwarwasabouttobegininearnest.
Luhansk:FromOblasttoInsurgency
TheRS'sApril20thEasterattackhadanimmediateeffectinLuhansk,
ignitingtheinsurgentflamethathadspreadinDonetsktoitsDonbass
neighbor.ThosewhoinearlyAprilstormedLuhansk'sgovernment
buildingsandothersremainedonthesquareneartheOGAforweeks,and
Kievundertooknoattempttonegotiatewiththem.Genevaofferedhope,
butnodialoguebeganandinsteadtheEasterattackescalatedthelevel
ofviolence,withthefirstcombatcasualtiesinDonbass.OnApril21st,
theprotestersorganizedaseriesofvechesacrosstheregiontoelect
delegatestoaregion-widevecheheldinLuhanskcitythesamedayand
attendedbyseveralthousand,chanting:"Russia!Referendum!"Some
protestersappearedtosupportUkraine'sfederalizationasapathto
regionalautonomywithinUkraine,whileotherssupportedUkraine's
reunificationwiththeRussianFederation.TheLuhanskvechedeclared
theLuhanskPeople'sRepublic(LNR)andtworeferenda.Onereferendum
wasscheduledforMay11thtodeterminewhethertheregionshouldseek
autonomousstatuswithinUkraine.Thesecond,scheduledforMay18th
wouldtodeterminewhethertheLNRshoulddeclareindependencefrom
UkraineorjointheRussianFederationshouldautonomywithinUkrainebe
rejectedonthe11th.[16]TheProsecutorGeneral'sOffice(GPO)deemed
therallies'separatist'innature:"Thedemonstrators'speeches,
insigniaandfederalizationslogans,aswellascallstoholdalocal
referendum,areexplicitlyseparatist.Theregionalprosecutor'soffice
seestheunrestintheLuhanskregionasillegalanditentered
informationonthemintothedatabaseofpre-trialinquiriestobe
controlledbytheLuhanskregionalprosecutor'soffice."[17]Aweek
latertheLNRwasofficiallydeclared,anditsleadersdemandedthat
KievrecognizetheauthorityoftheBolotovasthenewgovernor,provide
amnestytoallprotesters,codifyRussiaasastatelanguage,andholda
referendumonLuhansk'sstatusandtheMaidangovernmentleadershipdid
notmeetthesedemandsby14:00onApril29th,theywouldjoinwiththe
DNRinaninsurgencyagainsttheATO.[18]Kievneverreactedotherthan
todivertsomeATOforcestoLuhansk.Therewasnoturningback.RShad
ensuredtherewouldbeaDonbasscivilwar.
Footnotes
[1]"Mesyatsokkupatsii.Slavyansk"and"UkraineArmyLaunches
'Anti-Terror'Operation,"SkyNews,14April2014,
http://news.sky.com/story/1241376/ukraine-army-launches-anti-terror-operation.
[2]"Mesyatsokkupatsii.Slavyansk."
[3]"UkraineArmyLaunches'Anti-Terror'Operation."
[4]"GenevaStatementonUkraine,"EUExternalActionService,17April
2014,http://www.eeas.europa.eu/statements/docs/2014/140417_01_en.pdf.
[5]JulianBorgerandAlecLuhn,"Ukrainecrisis:Genevatalksagreement
ondefusingconflict,"TheGuardian,17April2014,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/ukraine-crisis-agreement-us-russia-eu.
[6]YekaterinaStulen',"Boets'Pravogosektora'vzorvalsebyaidvukh
'zelenikhchelovechkov,"VestiUkraina,17April2014,
http://vesti-ukr.com/donbass/48168-boec-pravogo-sektora-vzorval-sebja-i-dvuh-zelenyh-chelovechkov.
[7]SeetheSBUstatementat"ShchodozbroinoiprovokatsiiuPaskhal'nu
nichbilyam.Slov'yansk,"SluzhbabezopekiUkrainy,20April2014,
http://www.sbu.gov.ua/sbu/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=124389&cat_id=39574.
Seealso"SBU:Separatistysrossiiskimydiversantamiinstsenirovali
napadenienablokpostSlavyanska,"Gordonua.com,20April2014,
http://gordonua.com/news/separatism/sbu-separatisty-s-rossiyskimi-diversantami-inscenirovali-vnesh
nee-napadenie-na-blokpost-slavyanska-19184.html.
[8]"VSNBOraskritikovalilzhivyiesoobshcheniyaRossiiskoipressyo
perestrelkevSlavyanske,"TSN.ru,20April2014,
http://ru.tsn.ua/politika/v-snbo-raskritikovali-lzhivye-soobscheniya-rossiyskoy-pressy-o-perestrel
ke-v-slavyanske-361755.html.
[9]AleksandrVasovicandAlissaDeCarbonnell,"Deadlygunattackin
easternUkraineshakesfragileGenevaaccord,"Reuters,20April2014,
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA3A1B520140420.
[10]"Pravyisectorotritsaetsvoyuprichastnost'kperestrelkev
Slavyanske,"Korrespondent,20April2014,
http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/3352145-pravyi-sektor-otrytsaet-svoui-prychastnost-k-per
estrelke-v-slavianske.
Slavyanske."
[12]VasovicandDeCarbonnell,"DeadlygunattackineasternUkraine
shakesfragileGenevaaccord."
[13]"DmitroYarosh:namsheKrimpovertati,"BBC(Ukrainian),11
February2015,
http://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/politics/2015/02/150211_yarosh_interview_vs.
[14]"DUK5-IOkremiiBatal'ion,"VKontakte,12October2014,
http://archive.is/4a5bMcitedinIvanKatchanovski,"January26at
2:43,"Facebook,26January2016,
http://www.facebook.com/ivan.katchanovski/posts/1165670110129540.
[15]"UkhvalaimenemUkraini-SpravaNo.757/42824/15-k""Ukhvala
imenemUkraini-SpravaNo.757/47700/15-k"and"VSlavyanskePravyi
sektoratakovalblokpost,pogiblitroezhitelei,"YouTube,8April2015,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J3bp6Ml4agallcitedinKatchanovski,
"January26at2:43."
[16]"Luhanskprosecutorslaunchprobesintofederalizationsupport
rallies,"Interfax-Ukraine,21April2014,
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/201534.htmland"VLuganske
separatistyreshiliprovestidvareferenduma,"Ukrainskayapravda,21
April2014,http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2014/04/21/7023176/.
rallies."
[18]"LatestfromtheSpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraine-basedon
informationreceivedupuntil28April2014,19:00(Kyivtime),"
OrganizationonSecurityandCooperationinEurope,28April2014,
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/118153and"Federalizationsupportersin
Luhanskproclaimpeople'srepublic,"Tass,28April2014,
http://tass.ru/en/world/729768.
Johnson'sRussiaList,6368CircleDrive,Chincoteague,VA23336
SafeUnsubscribemartin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Forwardemail
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Tryitfreetoday
From: MartinDewhirst<martin.dewhirst@googlemail.com>
Senttime: 04/24/201612:18:44PM
To: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:2016-#76-Johnson'sRussiaList
DearPeter,
Iknowyouhaveotherpriorities,butIthinkyoushouldreaditem3,
preferablyusingthelinktothefullversion.PetrovgivesPutinone
moreyearbeforehe'soverthrown,atmosttwoyears.IreadPetrov
regularly,andhaven'tcomeacrossanythinglikethisfromhimbefore.I
don'tcompletelyagreewithhim,andIsticktomyoriginalbetthat
Putinwillstillbetherein2020,butthisisthefirsttimeI'vehad
seriousdoubtsthatI'llwin.Ofcourse,someadditionalWestern
sanctionswouldhelptoincreasethechancesthatI'lllose,butIdon't
thinkeitheryourPresidentortheEUiswillingtohelpyoutowinourbet.
Best,
Martin
copy:ro
--------ForwardedMessage--------
Subject:2016-#76-Johnson'sRussiaList
Date:Thu,21Apr201611:27:52-0400(EDT)
From:DavidJohnson
Reply-To:davidjohnson@starpower.net
To:martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Havingtroubleviewingthisemail?Clickhere
Johnson'sRussiaList
2016-#76
21April2016
davidjohnson@starpower.net
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*"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"*
*"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"
Youseewhatyouexpecttosee
"Thebiggestcommunicationproblemiswedonotlistentounderstand.We
listentoreply."*
*Inthisissue*
TODAY<#LETTER.BLOCK4>
1.RFE/RL:BrianWhitmore,OnMyMind.<#LETTER.BLOCK5>
2.RFE/RL:BrianWhitmore,TheDailyVertical:TheKremlin'sSpin,
NATO'sReality.<#LETTER.BLOCK6>
3.EuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations:NikolayPetrov,Putin's
downfall:ThecomingcrisisoftheRussianregime.Thecurrenttrajectory
oftheRussianregimeisunstableandwithoutdramaticchangeitwill
crumblewithinthenextyear,accordingtoaleadingRussiaspecialist.
<#LETTER.BLOCK7>
4.Newsweek.com:PUTINISA'SMARTBUTTRULYEVILMAN,'SAYSMADELEINE
ALBRIGHT.<#LETTER.BLOCK8>
5.Euromaidanpress.com:MadeleineAlbrightandRussia's"usefulidiots"
<#LETTER.BLOCK9>
6.MoscowTimes:KirillRogov,Putin'sEconomist:WhyKudrinTappedto
WriteNewReformsPlan.<#LETTER.BLOCK10>
7.MoscowTimes:SamGreene,TheMasksComeOffbutRussianOfficials
HaveNothingLefttoSay.<#LETTER.BLOCK11>
8.Vedomosti:Russiansseeparliamentashaving"symbolic"significance
-pollsterchief.(AlekseyLevinson)<#LETTER.BLOCK12>
9.MoscowTimes:MoreThanHalfofRussiansWantNewSovietState-
Poll.<#LETTER.BLOCK13>
10.PaulGoble:Russians'ApproachtoPoliticsInconsistentand
Paradoxical,SociologistSays.<#LETTER.BLOCK14>
11.Politkom.ru:MostRussiansnotinterestedingettingtruepictureof
world-analysis.<#LETTER.BLOCK15>
12.www.opendemocracy.net:BadmaByurchiev,Russia'sregions:federalism
anditsdiscontents.CreatingtheappearanceofstabilityistheRussian
politicalelite'sprimarygoal.Yetcolonial-likeruleoverthe
country'sregions,combinedwithalackofcivicactivity,harmsthe
Kremlin'slegitimacyontheground.<#LETTER.BLOCK16>
13.TheNewYorkReviewofBooks:TimothySnyder,Trump'sPutinFantasy.
<#LETTER.BLOCK17>
14.DeutscheWelle:HowNigeriangirlsareforcedintoprostitutionin
Russia.<#LETTER.BLOCK18>
15.TheGuardian(UK):Russia's'coldturkey'approachhighlightsglobal
divideoverdrugtreatmentatUN.Russianrepresentativesuggests
methadoneandheroinarethe'samenarcoticdrug'asoutsideexperts
condemncountry'stakeontreatment:'They'retheworldleaderin
denyingthescience'<#LETTER.BLOCK19>
16.RFE/RL:BarredFromHundredsOfOccupationsInRussia,AFewWomen
FightBack.<#LETTER.BLOCK20>
17.Time.com:WhyaWininaDutchCourtIsMakingVladimirPutinSo
Happy.AcourtintheHaguehasquasheda$50billionjudgmentagainst
theRussianstate.ButPresidentPutin'senemiesfromtheYukosaffair
aren'tgivingupanytimesoon.<#LETTER.BLOCK21>
18.www.foreignaffairs.com:GregoryFeifer,IncorruptiblePutin.Whythe
PanamaAllegationsWon'tStick.<#LETTER.BLOCK22>
19.KennanInstitute:MaximTrudolyubov,HardWorkvs.Magic.
<#LETTER.BLOCK23>
20.www.foreigpolicy.com:SitRep:Exclusive:PentagonSaysRussiaCan
FightinUkraineandSyriaAnotherTwoYears.<#LETTER.BLOCK24>
21.NewYorkTimes:RussiaBolstersItsSubmarineFleet,andTensions
WithU.S.Rise.<#LETTER.BLOCK25>
22.WallStreetJournal:JoshuaYaffa,Russia'sWilyMenandWomen.
(rePUTINCOUNTRYbyAnneGarrels)<#LETTER.BLOCK26>
23.BulletinoftheAtomicScientists:InterviewwithFormerUS
ambassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaul.<#LETTER.BLOCK27>
24.TheAmericanInterest:LiliaShevtsova,HOWTHEWESTMISJUDGED
RUSSIAPART13.TheKremlin'sTriadastheMeansofSurvival.TheWest
needstounderstandthattheRussianSystemiswillingtofightforits
survival,andthatthisfightcouldtakemanydifferentforms.
<#LETTER.BLOCK28>
25.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:Atacrossroads:Theanxietiesofa
globalizedworld.InanRBTHexclusive,formerSovietleaderMikhail
Gorbachevwritesabouttheinternationalcrisisofleadershipandthe
challengesfacingpoliticiansaroundtheworldinatimeofmoral
uncertaintyandlackofunityandvisionforthefuture.<#LETTER.BLOCK29>
26.Irrussianality:PaulRobinson,LEGALBLOWBACK.<#LETTER.BLOCK30>
27.ChristianScienceMonitor:FredWeir,Revivalofdiplomacy?Ukraine,
Russiamakeprogressonprisonerswap.<#LETTER.BLOCK31>
28.BostonGlobe:LevGolinkin,PopeFrancis,askmoreforUkraine.
<#LETTER.BLOCK32>
29.Sputnik:Kremlin:RussiatoBeHappyIfUkraine'sAssociationWith
EUYieldsSuccess.<#LETTER.BLOCK33>
30.http://gordonhahn.com:GordonHahn,The20April2014Easter
Attack:AgainonRightSectorandtheMakingoftheUkrainianCivilWar.
<#LETTER.BLOCK34>
#1
RFE/RL
April21,2016
OnMyMind
ByBrianWhitmore
YouhavetowonderwhatdrivespeoplelikeAlekseiKudrinandElla
Pamfilova.Bothwereinthenewsthisweek.Kudrinacceptedanofferto
chairtheKremlin'stopeconomicsthinktank,theCenterforStrategic
Reform,andcalledforafundamentalrestructuringofRussia'seconomy
andpoliticalsystem.AndPamfilova,whowasrecentlyappointedheadof
theElectionCommission,raisedeyebrowsbycancelingelectionsinthe
MoscowsuburbofBarvikhaafterfouroppositioncandidatescomplainedof
fraud.PamfilovasaysshewillresignifthereisfraudinSeptember's
electionstotheStateDuma.Callmecynical(althoughIdon'tthinkI
am),butIjustdon'tthinkthekindofeconomicreformsKudrinis
proposingarepossibleunderthecurrentregime.Atbest,he'llbe
allowedtotinkeronthemargins.Andcallmecynicalagain(andagain,
Idon'tthinkIam),butIdon'texpectSeptember'selectiontobe
clean.RegimeliberalslikeKudrinandPamfilovaremainconvincedthat
thePutinregimecanbereformedandchangedfromwithin.Itcan't.
Becausereformingthisregimewouldmeanunderminingitscorrupt
foundations,whichwouldleadtoitsfall.AndthisisnotwhatPutin
hasinmind.
#2
RFE/RL
April20,2016
TheDailyVertical:TheKremlin'sSpin,NATO'sReality
ByBrianWhitmore
TheKremlinanditssurrogatesarespinningtoday'smeetingofthe
NATO-RussiaCouncilastheendofMoscow'sisolation.
InBrussels,itisviewedasatechnicalmeetingtoputsafeguardsin
placetopreventanaccidentalconflictfrombreakingoutamidrising
tensions.
TheKremlinsaysrevivingtheNATO-RussiaCouncilafternearlytwoyears
isproofthatachastenedWesthasrealizedtheerrorofitswaysandis
nowreadytoengageMoscow.
InWesterncapitals,themeetingislargelyviewedasanecessaryevil
andanopportunitytocalloutRussiafortheprovocativeactionsofits
warplanesininternationalairspace--andtheircontinuedviolationsof
NATOairspace.
TheKremlinispresentingtheresurrectionoftheNATO-RussiaCouncilas
asignthattheUkrainecrisishaschangedtherulesofinternational
politicsinMoscow'sfavor.
NATOofficialsseeitasanopportunitytoreprimandRussiaforits
continuedeffortstodestabilizeUkraine,foritsfailuretoabideby
theMinskcease-fireagreement--andtoreinforcethemessagethatthis
behaviorhascostsandconsequences.
Today'smeetingamongNATOandRussianenvoyswillagainillustratethat
MoscowandtheWestliveincompletelydifferentcognitiverealities.
TheKremlin'spropagandamachinewillspinitasamajorvictoryfora
resurgentRussia.
Butopticsaside,itwillbenothingofthesort.
#3
EuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations
www.ecfr.eu
April19,2016
Putin'sdownfall:ThecomingcrisisoftheRussianregime
ByNikolayPetrov
NikolayPetrovisavisitingfellowattheEuropeanCouncilonForeign
Relations.HewaschairoftheCarnegieMoscowCenter'sSocietyand
RegionsProgram.HeworkedintheInstituteofGeographyattheRussian
AcademyofSciencesfrom1982to2006.Heservedaschieforganiserof
theAnalysisandForecastDivisionintheSupremeSoviet(1991-1992),
wasanadviserandanalystfortheRussianPresidentialAdministration
(1994-1995),andascholarattheKennanInstituteforAdvancedRussian
Studies(1993-1994)andtheInternationalFoundationforElectoral
Systems(1994).From1996to2000,PetrovworkedattheCarnegieMoscow
Centerasaseniorconsultantandscholar-in-residence.Petrovearned
hisPh.D.fromMoscowStateUniversity.MoscowTimescolumnist.
[Fulltexthere
http://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/putins_downfall_the_coming_crisis_of_the_russian_regime700
6
ThecurrenttrajectoryoftheRussianregimeisunstableandwithout
dramaticchangeitwillcrumblewithinthenextyear,accordingtoa
leadingRussiaspecialist.
"Putin'sdownfall:ThecomingcrisisoftheRussianregime"byNikolay
PetrovarguesthatRussia'spoliticalregimeisunsustainableandlacks
capacitytoreforminthefaceofeconomicturmoil.Hearguesthatthe
regimehaslittleroomformanoeuvre,asexcessivecentralisationmakes
thesystemunstableandinefficient.Followingpreviousdomestic
dissent,VladimirPutincentralisedallpowerinthepresidencyand
weakenedRussianpoliticalandstateinstitutionsintheprocess.Now,
theregimeneedstokeepdeliveringmilitaryvictoriesorfacealossof
support.
PetrovassertsthattheRussianregimehasonlytwowaysoutofits
comingcrisis,bothofwhichhavelimitations.Thefirstistoreconcile
withtheWestandsoimproveitsfinances,byreininginanti-Western
rhetoricandappointingprominentreformerstokeypositionsinthe
government.Petrovbelievesthisisunlikelygiventhedeeplyentrenched
hostilitybetweenRussiaandtheWest.
Thesecondwayout,accordingtoPetrov,istochangeleader.WithPutin
havingstakedhispoliticalpoweronthelegitimacyofmilitaryvictory,
thesystemwillbreakdownwhenRussiastopswinning.Thealternativeis
anewleaderwithadifferent-perhapsanelectoral-mandate.However,
thisoptiontooisfraughtwithdangers.Withnoclear'heir',the
current,highlycentralisedandhighlypersonalised,systemwouldneed
toberebuilt.
Thealternativetotheseexitstrategiesisariskycollapse.
UncontrolledregimechangewouldleaveRussiawithoutvisibleleadersor
effectivestateinstitutions.Inthisscenario,powercouldbeassumed
byacoalitionofcorporations,redistributedamongvariousbodies,
includinggovernmentagencies,largecompanies,andevencertain
regions,suchasTatarstanandChechnya.
Summary
-Russia'spoliticalregimeisunsustainable.Ithasnocapacityto
reform,andfacesgrowingeconomicwoes,crumblinginfrastructure,and
warringelites.
-Afterwidespreadprotestsandebbingofsupport,thegovernmentbegan
in2014tobaseitslegitimacyonwinningwars.Putincentralisedall
powerinthepresidency,suppressingdissentandweakeninginstitutions
intheprocess.
-Now,theregimeneedstokeepdeliveringmilitaryvictoriesorfacea
lossofsupport.Excessivecentralisationmakesthesystemunstableand
inefficient,focusedonsurvivalratherthanstrategy.Assanctionsbite
andfundsrunshort,theelitesaregrowingimpatient,andthechanceof
conflictisrisinginregionssuchastheCaucasus.
-TherearetwowaysoutfortheRussianregime:improveitsfinancesby
reconcilingwiththeWest,orregainlegitimacybyreplacingthe
president.Eventhesewillonlybuyittime,andmaynotpreventatotal
collapse.
-ThereisnoclearheirtoPutin,andcollapsecouldbefollowedbythe
redistributionofpowertovariousgovernmentbodies,companies,and
regions,includingChechnya.
Russia'scurrentregimewillnotlastlong.Thetumultuouseventsin
Ukrainein2014reducedthecountry'spossibletrajectoriestoasingle
one-apaththatwillquicklyleadtothecollapseofthePutin
governmentifthereisnoradicalchangeinitscourse.
BeforetheCrimea-Ukraineaffair,itlookedasthoughPresidentVladimir
Putin'spoliticalregimewasfairlystableandcouldlastforseveral
yearswithoutprofoundchange.However,therewasaqualitativeshiftin
theregime'scharacterafter2014.Now,itdrawsitslegitimacyfrom
militaryaction,ratherthanfromtheballotbox.Therootsofthis
shiftgobacktothepoliticalcrisisof2011-2012,whenmass
anti-governmentprotestsandpoorelectoralresultsfortherulingparty
showedthattheoldformofpoliticswascomingtoanend.
Today,theregimederivesitslegitimacynotfromthebottomup,through
elections,butfromthetopdown,byplacingthecountryonapermanent
warfooting.AlthoughPutinstayedinpower,hisrolechanged
fundamentally-now,heismorelikeatsarthanthechairofaboard.
Theregimehasmovedfromahybridsystemthatstillmaintainedthe
outwardtrappingsofademocracytoafull-scaleauthoritarianstate,
whiletheshiftingbalanceofpowerhasmadetheelitesmoredependent
onthepresident.
AlthoughPutin'spopularityskyrocketedaftertheannexationofCrimea,
hehasbeentrappedbyhischoices.Hisregimeisaddictedtomilitary
actionandnowneedsaseriesofever-strongerhitsofforeignconflict
inordertomaintainitslegitimacy.Thispositionisunsustainable,
givenshrinkingfinancialresources,thewaningpatienceofeliteswho
don'twanttoliveinamilitarycampforever,andRussia's
fast-deterioratingadministrativeandpoliticalsystems.Thecountryis
beingheldhostagebytheregimetheregimeisahostageofPutin,and
Putinisahostageofhisownactions,whichhavedrasticallynarrowed
hisrangeofoptions.
Givenallthis,Russia'scurrenttrajectoryisthatofaplaneina
tailspin.Therearethreepossibleoutcomes:
(A)Regimechange:Theplanecrashesintotheground,andthecurrent
Russianpoliticalregimeundergoesacompletecollapse,withbothleader
andinstitutionsremoved
(B)Exitstrategy1:Theplanepullsoutofthetailspin,withthepilot
stillinplace.ThiscouldinvolvereconciliationwiththeWest,ora
sharpincreaseintheoilprice
(C)Exitstrategy2:Thecrewselectsanewpilot,whopullstheplane
outofitstailspin.
Itisbynomeanscertainwhichofthesescenarioswillcometopass.
Theirrelativeprobabilitiesshiftaccordingtoeventsontheground,
andevenanattempttomaintainthestatusquowillaltertherangeof
possibleoutcomesinunpredictableways.Thispapersetsouttoassess
howlongtheRussianregimehasleft,settingoutthefivefactorsthat
havesentitintoitscurrenttailspin,beforeconsideringitspossible
exitstrategies,andwhattypeofregimemightcomenext.
Howlongcanitlast?
Putin'sregimecan'tlastforlonginitscurrentstate-eitherthe
planewillclimboutofthetailspin,oritwillcrash.Theconcrete
dangersfortheregimeincluderisingsocialtensionsduetocutsin
governmentspendingterroristattacksinresponsetoitsmilitary
actioninSyriaandthedilemma
ofeasternUkraine-whereitisunabletoescalate,forfearoftougher
sanctions,orretreat,forfearofbeingaccusedofbetrayingthe
nationalinterest.Underlyingallthisisthegeneralpolitical
instabilitythatcouldslideintochaosifsomethinghappenedtoPutin
himself,orifhisapproval
ratingswentintoasharpdecline.
Inaddition,thelikelihoodofanexplosionofconflictintheCaucasus
growsasfederalfundsshrink,becominginsufficienttoensurethe
loyaltyofethnicclanelites,andthustobuystabilityintheregion.
Russia'sageinginfrastructurecouldcauseatechnologicaldisasterat
anytime,andindeedthis
hashappenedseveraltimesintherecentpast.Theauthoritiesmaybe
abletodealwithindividualcrisesingovernmentinstitutionsifthey
strikeonebyone,butnotiftheytakeplaceinanavalanche,witheach
triggeringafurthercrisis.Thekeyissueistiming-howlongthe
regimecansurvivewithoutradicalchange.Predictionsvary:frommany
yearsofslowdecay,liketheRomanEmpire,toacompletetransformation
-imposedeitherfromaboveorfrombelow-bytheendof2016.
Intheviewofthisauthor,theregimehaslessthanayear:the
existentialthreatitfacesismadeupofseveraldynamics,eachof
which,takenalone,islikelytodestroytheregimeinlessthantwo
years.Whencombined,however,theyexacerbatetheturbulenceandmake
theregime'slifeexpectancyevenshorter.Byconsideringeachdynamic
separately,wecansystematicallyapproachthequestionofhowlongthe
regimehasleft....
#4
Newsweek.com
April20,2016
PUTINISA'SMARTBUTTRULYEVILMAN,'SAYSMADELEINEALBRIGHT
BYDAMIENSHARKOV
FormerU.S.SecretaryofStateMadeleineAlbrighthasincurredthewrath
ofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'salliesaftercallinghima"smart
buttrulyevilman."
InaninterviewwithAustriannewspaperDiePresse,Albrightdefended
theforeignpolicyofBillClinton'sadministration,inwhichshewas
SecretaryofStateduringClinton'sfirstterm.TheCzechRepublic,
PolandandHungarywerethefirstformerCommuniststatestojoinNATO
in1999,inwhatwouldbecomethefirststepofaneastwardexpansion
whichhasstronglyincensedMoscow.
"IamveryproudoftheNATOexpansion.Thenwemanagedtousethepower
ofWesternEuropeandhelptheBalkanstates,"Albrightsaid."The
UnitedStatessawitsroleasanindispensablenationwhichshoulddo
goodallovertheworld."
AlbrighttookalesspositiveviewofPutin,whomshemetduringavisit
totheKremlinin2000,shortlyafterhesucceededformerRussian
PresidentBorisYeltsin.Whenaskedwhatherlastingimpressionwasof
theyoungpresident,Albrightwascritical.
"Heissmart,butatrulyevilman,"shesaid,describinghimas"aKGB
officer,whowantstokeepeverythingundercontrolandbelievesthat
everyoneconspiresagainstRussia."
"Putinhadbadcards,buttheywereplayedwell,"shesaid."Atleast,
intheshort-term.IthinkhisgoalistoundermineandsplittheEU.He
wantstodriveNATOfromhissphereofinfluence."
Washington'sformertopdiplomatalsowarnedthattheBalticstates
shouldbeconcernedfromRussia'smilitarybuild-uponitsborders,
especiallybecauseofRussia'smethodof"asymmetricwarfare."
AlbrightalsodismissedRussiancriticismsthattheU.S.seeksto
provokeRussia,saying"theU.S.hasnoproblemwithRussia,exceptwhen
itoccupiesothercountries."
"OnealwayslooksforexcusesforRussiaandI'mfedupwithit,"
Albrightsaid."Russiaisacountrythatprovokesandthenfeelsinsulted."
Inresponse,Putin-allyandchairmanofRussianparliament's
InternationalRelationsCommitteeAlexeyPushkovtooktoTwitter.
"WhetherAlbrightisfedupornot,isnotimportant,"hewrote."The
U.S.anditsalliesareforcedtodealwithRussia.Theopinionofsome
forgottenSecretaryofState,isofnobody'sinterest."
#5
Euromaidanpress.com
April20,2016
MadeleineAlbrightandRussia's"usefulidiots"
ByVitaliyPortnikov
VitaliyPortnikovisaUkrainianeditorandjournalist.BorninKyivin
1967.Since1989,heworksastheanalystoftheNezavisimayaGazeta,
specializinginpost-Sovietcountries,andcooperateswiththeRussian
andUkrainianservicesofRadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty.
TheformersecretaryofstateMadeleineAlbrighthasbecomethefocusof
Russianpropaganda.Well-knownhystericsarediscussinghervillainy.
CartoonistsaredepictingherinthetraditionoftheSoviet"portraits"
offoreignenemiesduringtheColdWar.
Andofcourseallofthem-thosewhowriteandthosewhodraw-never
tireofrepeatingthatAlbrightwhohasbeen"onthe"dustbinof
history"andwouldhaveremainedunnoticedbyallifnotforthefact
thatshehadoffended"GreatRussia"andthecountry'sinsaneleader
VladimirPutininaninterviewwiththeAustrianDiePresse.
WhenAlbrightcalledRussia"Bangladeshwithmissiles"sheremindedthe
RussianpropagandistsofthegoodoldnicknamefortheSovietUnion.The
Communistsstatewascalled"UpperVoltawithrockets"inthecivilized
world.And,incidentally,itwasnotfarfromthetruth.
Alreadyafewyearslater,whentheWestreachedthesameconclusion,
theUSSRdidnothavelongtoexist(?)IdonotdoubtthatPutin's
Russiawillfollowitsmalevolentpredecessor.ButinRussiatheytook
offenseatAlbrightnotonlyforthe"Bangladeshwithmissiles"andan
accuratepsychologicalcharacterizationofPutin,whomtheexperienced
diplomatcalleda"trulyevilman."
WhatwasmostimportantwasthatAlbrighthadjudgedthebehaviorofa
certainportionoftheWesternestablishment.
"I'mreallysickofthefactthatpeoplearealwaystryingtofind
excusesforRussia.Russiaisacountrythatprovokesandthenfeels
offended,"AlbrighttoldtheAustrianjournalists.
Shegaveatoughandaccuratedescriptionofthepoliticsofthosewho
arereadytoabandonUkrainetofendforitselfintheconflictwiththe
"offended"aggressor.
ThosewholookforjustificationsforMoscow'sactionsinRussia's
difficulthistoryandtheeternallyvictimized"Russiansoul"whichis
usuallysearchedforwiththehelpofmoneystolenfromtheRussians
themselves.Thosewhoarereadytosellinternationallawforthe
superfluoustankofoil.
ThereareplentyofsuchpeopleamongWesternpoliticians,diplomats,
andjournalists.Theyarethemainenemiesofthosevaluesuponwhich
thecivilizedworldisbased.Theyaretheenemies-notPutin.
BecausePutinisnothidinganything.Hesendsarmies.Heallowsthemto
kill,torture,rape,steal.Andthesepeoplepretendnottonotice
anything.Becausetheyareafraid.Becausetheywantmoney.Becausethey
arethe"usefulidiots"ofthenewFuhrer.Theparentsofmanyofthem
behavedinexactlythesamewayinthe1930s.
Theypreferrednottonotice.Theywereafraid.Theymadeexcuses.Or
theyadmiredthe"spirituality"-whetherNaziorBolshevik.Andthen
theywonderedwheretheGermantanksinParisorAmsterdamcamefromor
theSovietonesinRigaandTallinn.
Itisimportanttounderstandhowithappened!Perhapswehavenotfully
understood?OrhavenotgraspedtheAryansoul?AndthentheRussian
soulisacompletemystery.IfnotforHitler'sidioticattackonhis
allyStalin,ifnotfortheUSentryintothewar,Europewouldhave
losttotheReichandtheflagswiththeswastikascouldstillbewaving
overEuropeancapitals.
But,aswecansee,therehavebeennoconclusionsdrawnfromthis
inevitabledefeat,andwehavecontinuedtobeconfrontedwithstupidity
andbetrayaluntilthepresenttime.ThisissomethingthatMadeleine
Albrightwasnotafraidtosay.Andsomethingthatwe,too,mustnotforget.
#6
MoscowTimes
April21,2016
Putin'sEconomist:WhyKudrinTappedtoWriteNewReformsPlan
ByKirillRogov
KirillRogovisapoliticalanalyst.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasdecidedthatformerFinance
MinisterandDeputyPrimeMinisterAlexeiKudrinistodrawupanew
economicprogramforthecountry.
AnysensibleeconomicstrategyshouldbebaseduponRussia'sreturnto
regulartransfersofpowerintheKremlin.Noadministrationshould
servefor16years,andaconsiderablesegmentoftherulingelite
understandsthisalltoowell.
AlexeiKudrinhasbeencalledontorejectthatideaandinsteadto
writealiberaleconomicprogramforPutin.Itisdesignedtorevive
hopeamongtheelitethatPutinwilltakeamoreprogressivestance
duringhis19thyearinpower.
Kudrinhasinfactbeenbroughtintoplayanoldgame.Thiswillbethe
fourthsuchprogramofPutin'srule.
ThefirstwasdraftedbyGermanGrefbackin2000.Atthetime,Putin
wascultivatingtheimageofastrongman-reformer,amanwho
effortlesslyfulfilledthelongingoftheRussianpeopleforastrong
leaderalongsidethehopesoftheRussianeliteforaliberalmarket
economy.
Thegovernmentneverformallyadoptedtheprogram.Ministerstookthe
draft"intoconsideration,"allowingleaderstoimplementorignore
policiesastheypleased.
Imagineowningahorse-drawncart:Someonebringsyouplanstoconvert
itintoacarandyoupromiseto"takeitintoconsideration."Atsome
point,youattachsidemirrors,replacethetworearwheelswithalloy
rims,applymetallicpainttothesideboardsandinstallanair
conditionerforthedriver.Theresultisthatyouhaveostensibly
achieved35percentfulfillmentoftheplan.TheRussiangovernment
takesasimilarapproach.
Gref'ssuccessorasEconomicDevelopmentandTradeMinister,Elvira
Nabiullina,drewupthesecondeconomicprogram.Hereffortswereneeded
becausetherealitiesoftheoilboomhadderailedthemarketreforms
envisionedbyGref.Nabiullina'sprogramwasanattempttocarryout
somethingcalled"oilmodernization."Thatprojectwasapprovedin2008
butbecomeirrelevantafewmonthslaterwhenoilpricesfell.
Thethirdliberaleconomicprogramwasthefamous"Strategy2020,"
writtenbyformerPresidentDmitryMedvedev.Thatprogramwasprimarily
intendedtodemonstratePutin'sfirmcontroloverboth
conservative-strongmenandliberal-marketdiscoursesinRussiansociety.
Thisisoneofthemainpoliticalfunctionsoftheliberaleconomic
programsRussia'sseniorleadersperiodicallyorderup.Theyexistto
preventanyoneelsefromproposingpoliticaloreconomicalternatives.
Whateverhappensinreality,ifthegovernmentisrockedbytheYukos
affair,energywars,orthedrainingofpensionfunds,Putinmakessure
toalwayshaveaprogressivereformprogramonthetable.Hemakesit
clearthathejustmightimplementitatanymoment.
Thisfourthprogramwillapparentlyservethesamepurpose.Evenafter
leavingthegovernment,Kudrinhasmanagedtobuildwhatcouldserveas
thebasisforasystemicoppositionpartybyskillfullymaneuvering
betweenmoderatebutsteadyoppositionandpersonalloyaltytoPutin.Of
course,itwouldbemuchmorenaturalforKudrintoheadaprogressive
businessparty,standforelectionsandthenheadaStateDumafaction.
FortheKremlinthatisanunacceptableoption,asiseverynatural
occurrenceinpolitics.
Kudrinhasreceivedonlyvaguepromisesinhisnewpost.Hewasinvited
todraftaneconomicprogramthathasnoofficialstatusorfunding.He
wasofferedonlyindefinitepowersonthepresident'sEconomicCouncil,
astrangeandpracticallynon-functioningbodythatPutinhasnot
consultedevenoncethroughout18monthsofeconomiccrisis.
Kudrinhadbeenhopingtogainthestatusof"exclusivedeveloperof
Russia'snewreforms"and,accordingtorumors,winaseniorposition-
possiblyevendeputyheadofthepresidentialadministration.In
reality,hewasputonashortleashandwarnednottogotoofar.
ThisisdespitethefactthatPutinverymuchneedsKudrin.Bybringing
Kudrintothefore,Putinkillstwobirdswithonestone.First,he
maintainspressureonPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedev'sgovernment.
Second,inRussia,so-called"systemicliberals"fulfillcertain
paradoxicalpoliticalandfiscalfunctions.Inothercountries,itis
normalforeconomicliberalstoadvocatereductionsinpublicspending,
which,inturn,allowsthegovernmenttolowertaxesandspureconomic
growth.Russia's"systemicliberals"vociferouslycallforspendingcuts
whileneveradvocatingtaxcuts.Tothecontrary,theyevenvigorously
opposetaxcutsfromtimetotime.
Theauthoritieshavetypicallyjustifiedthisstrangepolicyonthe
groundsthattheyhaveneededtobuildupfiscalreserves.Overthelast
sevenyearswhilecofferswerefull,theworldsawjusthowthose
reserveswerespent.Thatexcesscashallowedthegovernmenttoavoid
implementingessentialreformsevenduringatimeofeconomiccrisis.It
wasspentonstaginghistory'scostliestOlympicGamesandawildly
expensiveAsia-PacificEconomicCooperation(APEC)summit,savingthe
Vneshekonombank(VEB)frombankruptcy,increasingdefenseandsecurity
spendingandcreatingtheNationalGuard.
Putindoesneeda"cost-cuttingparty"duringtheeconomiccrisis,and
itneedstobeabureaucratic,non-politicalpartythatwillnotexceed
acceptableboundaries.Thispartyshouldfocusonincreasingsupportfor
raisingtheretirementage:oneofthekeyfiscalmeasuresneededto
preservethe"Putinsystem"duringthiseconomiccrisis.Theexpectation
isthatKudrinwillagreetothisrolewithoutmakingexcessive
politicaldemandsofhisown.
Havingsomeonetofulfillthatroleseemstobetherationalebehindthe
currentmoveKudrinisproposingtodraftaneconomicprogramthat,just
likethepreviousthree,noonehasanyintentionofcarryingout.He
hasn'tbeenpromisedanythingandisexpectedtodoalotofdirtywork
inreturn.
[returntoContent<#n0>s]
#7
MoscowTimes
April21,2016
TheMasksComeOffbutRussianOfficialsHaveNothingLefttoSay
BySamGreene
SamGreeneisapoliticalanalyst.
IfRussianliberalsthinkthey'vegotitbad,theyshouldstopfora
momenttoconsidertheplightofAlexanderBastrykin.
Formally,Bastrykin'sroleasheadofRussia'sInvestigativeCommittee
istoinvestigatecrimewhilesimultaneouslycompetingforresourcesand
influencewithpoliceandprosecutors.Bynight,theludicrousnessof
thatposition-evidencedbytherunningbattlebetweenhiscommittee
andthefederalprosecutorsoverwhethertoremandbusinessmanDmitri
Kamenshchik-evidentlyleaksintohisalter-egoasabsurdistpolitical
theorist.
Littledidheknowhe'dbehavecompetitionintheformofElla
Pamfilova,thehumanrightsactivistturnedheadoftheRussianCentral
ElectionCommission.
WhyBastrykinfeltmovedtoenterintothepublicfraythisweek,
penninganessayintheKommersantVlastmagazinethatseemeddesigned
toconfirmeveryRussianliberal'sworstfears,wecannotknow.
Perhaps,assomehavesuggested,hewaslobbyingfornewpowersto
counterseditiononline,inuniversitiesandelsewhere.It'sunlikely,
though,thatthepagesofasemi-liberalmagazinearethebestvenuefor
that.Maybe,aftertherecentshakeupinRussia'slawenforcement
universe,hefeltunsureofhispositionanddecidedtotrytoprovehis
loyaltyandusefulnesswithadeclarationofideologicalfervor.That
tackdidn'tworksowellforoustedrailwayschiefVladimirYakunin.
Whatwedoknow,however,isthatBastrykinsaidnothingnew.The
proposalstomoretightlycontrolflowsofinformationandcapitalhave
beenaroundforyears.TaxpoliceandRoskomnadzoralreadyhavemostof
theextra-judicialpowersthatBastrykinsaysaresocritical.
Similarly,authoritiesclearlyseeideologyandhistoryasa
battleground,andhavelongarguedthattheiropponentsarebackedby
theWest.AndthefactthatMoscow'senforcershavelittlepatiencefor
thenicetiesofconstitutionalismshould,in2016,comeasasurpriseto
noone.
Andso,unableorunwillingtotellusanythingwedidn'talreadyknow,
Bastrykinfollowedinthefootstepsofcountlesspreacherswhohavebeen
abandonedbytheirmuse:Hesimplysaiditlouderandbrasher.
Whatcaughtreaders'attentionwasBastrykin'scallto"stopplayingat
falsedemocracy"andabandon"pseudo-liberalvalues."LikeDonaldTrump
intheUnitedStates,we'renotsurprisedBastrykinthinksthesethings,
butweallowourselvesamomentofrighteousindignationwhenhe
actuallysaysthem.
That'sthemirrorimageofliberals'reactiontoPamfilova.Shortly
afterBastrykinpublishedhisthesis,Pamfilovatoldopposition
candidateIvanZhdanov-whoisfacingprosecutiononevidentlytrumped
upcharges-thatheshouldhave"knownwhatwouldhappenwhenyouwent
intopolitics."ThataRussianelectionofficialwouldsaysuchathing
is,alas,parforthisparticularcoursethesurpriseisthat
Pamfilova,whospentherlifeinthehumanrightscommunity,might
actuallythinkit.
Liberals'doubtsaboutPamfilovaintensifiedwhensheinitiallyturneda
blindeyetoobviousfraudaroundlocalcouncilelectionsinthe
affluentMoscowsuburbofBarvikha.Zhdanovandotherssupportedby
AlexeiNavalny'sPartyofProgressdecidedtocontesttheelectionsas
anearlytestofhowtheKremlin-andPamfilova-wouldmanagethe
upcomingDumavote.Presentedwithevidenceoftheusualrepertoireof
early-voteballotstuffingandotherformsofmanipulation,Pamfilova
offeredtopasstheallegationsontoYuryChaika,theprosecutor
generalwhosefamily'sbusinessdealingshavebeensubjecttoarecent
investigationbyNavalnyandZhdanov.Theironywaslostonnoone.
Navalnyeventuallyyankedhiscandidatesfromtherace,passingjudgment
onPamfilovaintheprocess.Nodoubtspurredonbythecriticism,the
nextdaytheCentralElectionCommitteedemandedthatlocalofficials
cancelthevotewhatwillhappennextremainsunclear.
ImagineBastrykin'sfrustration:Herehewas,settingeverythingupfor
agood-cop-bad-coproutine,andPamfilovashowsup,wantingtoplaythe
badcoptoo.Butthecomedymasksadeepertragedy:Whenthereareno
otherwordstosayandnothoughtstothink,theabsurdityofitall
becomesbanal,boring,andtheplayers,trappedintheirroles,tireof
themasks.
#8
Vedomosti
April12,2016
Russiansseeparliamentashaving"symbolic"significance-pollsterchief
AlekseyLevinson,headoftheLevadaCentreSocialandCulturalStudies
Department,SocietySeesItselfOnlyasthe'Majority.'ForSucha
Society,theParliamentandPartiesHaveNoPracticalSignificance
LevadaCentreputseveralquestionstothefuturevotersabouttheir
attitudetopoliticalparties.Whatfollowsbelowisnotanelectoral
forecast,butadiscussionofwhatourpartysystemlookslikeinthe
eyesofRussiancitizens.
Onlyfivepartiesexistwhichoverhalfofvoterssaythey"know"(which
mostlikelymeans"recognize").TheseareUnitedRussia,theCPRF
[CommunistPartyoftheRussiaFederation],theLDPR[Liberal-Democratic
PartyofRussia],JustRussia,andYabloko.However,thereisa
differencebetweensuch"knowing"andareadinesstosupportaparty
withyourownvote.Thisdifferenceisseveral-foldevenforUnited
Russia,whileforotherpartiesitishuge.Itworksoutthatthe
citizenswillnotvoteforthemnotbecausetheydonotknowthem,but
actuallybecausetheydo.
Whatkindofparliamentdoweneed?Amultipartyone,onewithfew
parties,orjustaone-partyparliament?Only8percentofvotersare
infavourofaparliamentinwhich"amultitudeofrelativelysmall
parties"holdsittings.ADumawithonesoleparty(andwecanguess
whichone)wouldsuitone-fourthofRussiansperfectlywell.Butthe
followingopinionisthemostwidelyheld(45percent):Weneeda
systemof"twoorthreelargeparties."That,itwouldseem,iswhatthe
willoftheelectoratelookslike.Butenoughvotesfromthesesame
voterscannotbemusteredevenfortwolargeparties,nevermindthree.
UnitedRussiacanqualifyfortheterm"large,"andaround40percent
intendtosupportittoday,butthosewhoarepromisingtovoteforthe
CPRFandtheLDPRtogethercometolessthan20percent.
Ourpresentparliamentarismisacomplexphenomenon.Theexecutive,for
allitsinclinationforhegemony,undoubtedlyneedsaparliament.And
notonlyasadecoration,andnotonlyasa"printer."Yes,theDumais
notaplacefordiscussions,butithasreallybecomeoneofthe
platformswhere"issuesareresolved,"whereinterestscollideandfind
compromise.Theonlythingisthattheinterests--perceived,andthen
processed,havingobtainedtheirmouthpiece--bynomeansbelongtothe
"entirepeople,"northe"majority,"butonlytothe"minority,"such
as,inourcountry,businesses,corporations,andorganisations.There
isnothingunsoundinthis.Thetaskisthatallofsocietyshould
emergeasacomplexconglomerateof"minorities"--professional,
regional,social,andothers.Theirrepresentatives,throughthe
mediationofsomekindofpartysystem,wouldentertheparliamentto
coordinatetheirmostdiverseinterests.Letusnoteinpassingthat
thisinterweavingofminoritiesisstrongerandmoreviablethana
singlemonolithicmajority.Becausetheunityofthatisensuredbysome
kindofsingle,oneandonlyfactor,whereasinaconglomerateof
minoritiesthereisamultitudeoffactorsofinterdependenceand
connection.
Societycurrentlyseesitselfonlyasa"majority."Forsuchamajority,
whichhasnotmadesenseofitselfinternally,aparliamentandparties
arethingswithsymbolicratherthanpracticalsignificance.Thatiswhy
now(untilthetelevisionhasrousedthem)46percentstilldonothave
anymoreorlesssetdecisionsonparticipatingintheelections.And
thepublic'sexpectationsaboutwhethertheupcomingelectionsarea
"realfightforpowerandseatsintheDuma"orwhetherthis"willjust
beanimitationofafight,whilethedistributionofseatsintheDuma
willbedeterminedbytheauthorities'decision"aresplitexactly
half-and-half.
#9
MoscowTimes
April21,2016
MoreThanHalfofRussiansWantNewSovietState-Poll
MorethanhalfofRussianswouldliketoseetherestorationofthe
SovietUnion,accordingtoapollreleasedTuesday.
Although58percentofrespondentssaidtheywouldliketoseeanew
socialistsystem,only14percentbelievedthatitwaslikelytohappen,
thereportbytheindependentLevadacenterpollsterrevealed.
Thirty-onepercentofrespondentswereopposedtorestoringtheSoviet
Union,while10percentdidnotgiveanopinion.
Thenumbersshowlittlechangefromasimilarpollconductedadecade
ago,thepollsterreported.
ThenumberofRussianswhoregretthecollapseoftheSovietUnion-
currently56percent-remainsbelowtheall-timehighin2000when
PresidentVladimirPutincametopower.Atthetime,some75percentof
RussiansregrettedthefalloftheSovietUnion,accordingtoLevada
Centerpolls.
JustoverhalfofRussians,or51percent,thinktheSovietcollapse
couldhavebeenavoided,whileanother33percentbelieveitwas
inevitable,thelatestpollindicated.InMarch2000,thenumbersstood
at62percentand26percent,respectively.
ThelatestpollwasconductedattheendofMarchwith1,600adultsin
137citiesandtownsacrossRussia.
#10
Russians'ApproachtoPoliticsInconsistentandParadoxical,Sociologist
Says
PaulGoble
Staunton,April20-NewpollsshowingmorethanhalfofRussiansregret
thedemiseoftheUSSR
(vestikavkaza.ru/news/Bolee-poloviny-rossiyan-sozhaleyut-o-raspade-SSSR-opros.html)
andthat40percentofRussiansdonotbelievethestateismeetingits
obligationstothem(kasparov.ru/material.php?id=57172AB41357E)have
attractedagreatdealofattention.
ButathirdsurveyconductedbyIrinaVorobyovaoftheRussianState
HumanitiesUniversitymaybethemostimportantbecauseitfocuseson
theparadoxesandinternalinconsistencesoftheapproachofRussiansto
politics,politicalself-identification,andexpectations.
Herstudy,"ContradictionsandParadoxesofPoliticalOrientationsin
theStructureoftheWorldofRussians,"Sotsiologicheskiye
issledovaniya,no.1(2016),isavailableonlineat
socis.isras.ru/files/File/2016/2016_1/17_26_Vorobieva.pdfandhasjust
presentedindetailontheTolkovatelportalathttp://ttolk.ru/?p=26642.
Accordingtothesociologist,"only20percentofRussianstakean
activeinterestinpolitics,"butmuchlargersharesidentifyas
patriots,nationalistsorliberalist.Theusualexplanationforthis
divide,shesays,isthatRussians"delegate"politicstothe
governmentbutshereportsthatonly20percentbelievetheauthorities
arehonest.
Russians'interestinpoliticshasbeenfallingforageneration,
Vorobyovreports.In1987,54.4percentofRussianssaidtheywere
activelyinterestedinpoliticallife.Butby2013,thatfigurehad
fallento27.1andnowitisevenlower.Andoverthesameperiod,the
shareofthosewithnointerestinpoliticshasrisenalmost1200percent.
ThesociologistpointstoanotherparadoxinRussianviewsasexpressed
tosurveyresearchers.Ontheonehand,Russianvaluethedemocratic
rightsandfreedomstheyhaveacquiredbutontheother,"theyare
quiteskepticalabouttheinstitutionscalledtotransformdemocracy
intolife"andbelievethattheyneedastrongstatewithatoughleader.
AnotherparadoxVorobyovpointstoisthat"thepoliticalidentification
ofRussians"withthisorthattrend"doesnotalwaysdirectly
correspondtotheirelectoralchoices."Shearguesthatthisreflects
anincreasingdesireofRussianstosupportacenterasinthecentral
powerandthecenterofthespectrum.
YetanotherparadoxamongRussiansaboutpoliticsisthat"thehigh
levelofsupportforthepowersthatbe"iscombinedwithanequally
highlevelofalienationfromthestate,"alackoftrustinthe
majorityofgovernmentinstitutions,"andtheconvictionofthemajority
thatthestatedoesnotservetheirinterests.
Vorobyovconcludesthatthisleadstoasituationinwhich"the
populationsupportstheauthorities"notbecausethelattermeettheir
needsbutbecausethepopulationisafraidofchangesandthe
possibilitythathoweverbadthingsare,theycouldasaresultofany
changegetworse.
Thesociologistconcludesthat"inRussiansocietythereexistsmassive
supportfortheauthoritiesalongsidealowleveloftrustinspecific
governmentinstitutionsandasensethattheauthoritiesdonotsupport
ordinarypeople"andthat"thedesiretohavedemocraticrightsand
freedomsexistsinparallelwithsupportforastrongstate,afirm
hand,andpaternalism."
Itislikelythattheseparadoxes,whichreflectaspecificnationalset
ofexperiences,explainmanyoftheotherpollresultsoftencitied,
includingthosewhichappeartorepresentradicalbreakswithearlier
positionsbutinfactsimplymirrorthedivisionsandcontradictions
withinRussianminds.
#11
Politkom.ru
April6,2016
MostRussiansnotinterestedingettingtruepictureofworld-analysis
YelenaPozdnyakova,FlightfromDiversity:HowRussiansConsumeInformation
Despitealltherestrictions,theRussianinformationarenaremains
quitepluralistic,somethingthattheproliferationoftheInternetin
thecountryisfacilitating.However,Russiansocietyisfarfromfully
usingthispotential.Andworldpracticehasnotmovedforwardmuchin
thissenseeither.WehaveanalysedtheRussianmediaspaceandthe
informationpracticesofRussiansociety,andhavereachedconclusions
thatarenotthatoptimistic.
Sometimesinarticlesbycommentatorsandsociologiststheideais
automaticallyacceptedthatlearningthenews"fromthetelevision"is
thelotofthe"socialperiphery",whichisundiscriminatinginits
choiceofsources,andthe"graymasses"whoareremotefromany
progressiveideas.InRussiathisispartlytrue,despitethecontinuing
penetrationoftheInternetintotheeverydaylivesofRussiansandthe
presenceofothertypesofmedia:insmalltowns,televisionistheonly
windowontotheworld.Ontheotherhand,unbiaseddatashowthat
televisionisalsothemainsourceofinformationforthe"social
centre":peoplewhoprefertoreceivetheirnewsfromthetelevision,
themajority.Moreover,therearealmostasmanyoftheminEuropeas
well.Atthesametime,confidenceintelevisionandothermedia,
informationhabitsetc-allofthisdetermineshowpeopleinterpret
information.Thatiswhyitisextremelyinterestingtoexamine
Russians'attitudestowardsthemediabasedonstatisticsandopinionpolls.
OnlyRussiansbelongingtoastatisticallyinsignificantminoritycan
makethetruthfulstatement"Idonotwatchtelevision"or"Idonot
haveatelevision",accordingtodatafrombothLevada-CentreandTNS
andNielsen:inonewayoranother,anabsolutemajorityofourfellow
countrymenwatchtelevision.AccordingtodatafromLevada-Centre
obtainedinMarch2014(thereportRussianMediaLandscape:Television,
Press,Internet),90percentofRussiansnamedtelevisionastheirmain
(mostfrequent)sourceforobtainingnewsinthecountryandinthe
world.AboutaquarterofRussiansjustasfrequentlylearntnewsfrom
thosearoundthemandfromtheInternet(inMoscowtheshareofthese
meansofobtaininginformationissubstantiallyhigher-47percentand
42percentrespectively).Newspapers,radio,andthesocialnetworks
areusedbyfewerthanone-fifthofRussiansforobtainingthelatest
news,andmagazinesarereadbyjustfivepercent.Theresultsobtained
byNielsenforRussiaweresomewhatdifferent(TheNielsenGlobal
GenerationalAttitudesReport,2015):accordingtothesedata,just61
percentofRussianslearnthenewsfromtelevisionwhiletheshareof
"virtual"socialcommunicationsinformingapictureoftheworldis
muchhigherthanunderLevada'sdata:almost40percentofcitizens
learnthenewsfromfriendsandthesocialnetworks.Another46percent
usesearchenginesforthis.
Onthewhole,Nielsen'sdataareverysimilar(exceptforthefigureson
television)totheLevada-CentredataforMoscow.Atthesametime,
Russianresearcherspointtothefactthatinthebigcitiesa
significantnumberofcitizensseektodiversifytheirsourcesof
information.The"socialcentre"oftenusesthreeormorenewssources,
whilethe"socialperiphery"usesoneortwo,butthisperiphery
comprisesmorethan70percentofcitizensand55percentofthem
almostexclusivelywatchtelevision.Evenamongthosewhohavehigher
education,highconsumerstatus,usetheInternet,ordonotapproveof
theregime'sactivities,atleastthree-quarterswatchthenewsonTV.
Peoplebusywiththeirowndailylivesdonothavethetimetostudy
othersourcesintheirsearchofnews,andthismeansthatnewsdoesnot
haveahighvalueandtakesplaceinaworldremotefromtheir
interests.Thegapbetweenthenumberofpeoplewholearnnewsfromthe
televisionandtheproportionofthosewhousesocialnetworkstoobtain
informationshowsthatasignificantproportionofRussiansdonot
discussthestateofaffairsinthecountryandtheworldwiththose
aroundthem.
However,itwouldbeamistaketothinkthatthespreadofInternet
mediaandthediversificationofsourcesofinformationwillreducetoa
minimumtheexclusiveinfluenceoftelevisiononthemindsofourfellow
citizenswithinashortperiodoftime.Televisionremainsanimportant
sourceofinformationaboutthecountryandtheworldfor55percentof
Europeans(Nielsen'sdata).Amongtheoldergenerations(startingwith
generationX-35-49yearolds),thisfigureapproachesthenationalone
andexceedsit,butevenamonggenerationZ(upto20yearsold),half
watchtelevision.Admittedly,Europeansinallagecohortsareactively
diversifyingtheirsourcesofinformation,soalargegroupofpeople
learningnewsfromonlyonesourceisformedalmostnowhere.Andof
course,theInternetintheformofsearchenginesthatassemble
headlines,andintheformofon-lineversionsofthetraditionalmedia,
andintheformofthesocialnetworks,hasbecomefirmlyestablishedin
theinformationhabitsofEuropeans,particularlyofyoungpeople.The
disappearingformatforpresentingnewsis,asmightbeexpected,the
printedpress:attentiontoitamongtheagecohortsdecreasesasage
decreases.
Intheory,bydiversifyingsources,eachperson,likeacompetent
investor,isreducingrisks-inthiscasetherisksofdisinformation,
manipulation,andexternalinfluenceontheperson'sopinion.However,
judgingbyfurtheranalysis,fortheformationofanindependentand
moreorlessobjectiveopinionbytheconsumerofinformation,whatis
importantistheinitialhabitofworkingwithdifferentsources,a
greatdesiretounderstandtheagenda,andanunderstandingthatany
sourcescanbebiasedinonewayoranother.Otherwise,despitethe
extensiveopportunitiesforusingvariousmeansofobtaining
information,theindividualwill"adjust"theminsuchawaythatthe
spreadofpositionsinthemisminimal-tominimizetheirown
discomfortandeffortsto"digest"theinformation.Russiansareatthe
momentalongwayfromobjectivity,astheLevadaresearchshows:by
choosingoneortwosourcesofinformation,amongwhichtelevisionis
themostsignificant,citizenscondemnthemselvestodisinformation-
bothintermsofthestyleofthepresentationofthenewsandinterms
ofitsselection.Itisworthnotingthatwithsuchanapproachto
creatinganinformationpictureoftheworldbyeachcitizen,evenif
themediaweredependentnotonthestatebutonotherplayers(for
example,bigbusiness),citizenswouldstillnotbeabletoformamore
appropriatenotionofreality.
Insituationswherethemediadependontheregime,theemergenceofnew
waysofconveyinginformationtotheconsumeralongsidealowlevelof
interestamongcitizensthemselvesineventsinthecountryandthe
worldalsomeansanincreaseinopportunitiesfortheideologizationand
politicizationofthepopulation.Growingtiredoftheabundanceofnews
(orsimplynotinterestedinthe"outsideworld),peopleprefertobe
entertained,butifnotapoliticalthenattheveryleastavalue-based
connotationcanbegiventoanyentertainment.Thiscanbeclearlyseen
fromtheexampleofHollywood(thehighvalueloadoffilmsforthemass
audience)andtheexampleofRussiantelevisionprogrammes-for
example,theideological"transformation"ofKVN.
Television:Informationhegemon
AccordingtoLevada-Centredata,theadvantagesoftelevisionoverother
channelsforobtainingnewsaregraduallybeingreducedforRussiaifwe
lookatthelongterm.Thus,inarecentarticleforSlon.ru,the
centre'sdirector,LevGudkov,presentsthisinformation:in2009,94
percentofthosepollednamedtelevisionastheirmainsourceof
information,in2015-85percent,andthisisalongsideamajor
reductioninconfidenceintelevision.Admittedly,forthesakeof
fairnessitshouldbenotedthatconfidencealsofellinothersources
ofinformation,soTVwasstilltheleader.
Inanycase,thereareanumberofreasonsfortelevision'ssuccessasa
sourceofnewsinRussiaandinEurope.Amongthemisthefactorofthe
lackofneedforanyefforttoobtaininformation,whichisensuredby
itsclarity(thankstotheuseofbothaudioandvideoandtextualand
graphicinformation).Televisionnewsisalsoexceptionallyconvenient
becausesuchinformationcanbeconsumedwhiledoingotherthingsin
parallel.Thus,accordingtoNielsen'sdata,Russiansaloneandinthe
familycircleprefertodinewhilewatchingtelevisionprogrammes.
Asmightbeexpected,thestatechannelsarethemostpopularamong
Russians.AccordingtodatafromLevada-Centre(forJune2014),82per
centofRussianswatchednewsonFirstChannelmoreorlessregularly,
71percentonRussia-1,andfollowingthembyalargemarginNTV:48
percent.Russians'verylowlevelofinterestinreginalandlocal
television(around13percent)issignificant:apparently,itis
possibletoobtainthemainnewsatalocallevelthroughthe
"grapevine",theperceptionofregionalchannelsas"amateurish"by
comparisonwiththefederalonesissignificant,andinadditionthe
factorofquitealowlevelofinterestinthelocalagendaalsoexists.
ManyresearchershavenotedtherapidincreaseinRussians'interestin
televisionnewssincetheeventsinUkrainebut,surprisingly,themain
beneficiaryofthisprocessturnedouttobethechannelRussia-24:
twiceasmanycitizensthaninOctober2012startedtowatchitandthe
channeltookastrongfourthplaceinthespectrumofRussians'
preferences.FirstChannelandRussia-1alsowonanadditionalaudience
althoughonalesserscale.Butalltheeventsintheinformation
pictureshadnoinfluenceonNTV:itsaudiencedidnotchangeatall,
andthesamethingwasobservedwithRen-TV.Thesechannelsfirmly
occupiedtheirniches,andtheyarenotattractingnewviewersofnews
programmes.
Moreover,itispossibletocomparethetimeonairthatnewsprogrammes
occupyonthechannels.IfweignoreRussia-24,aspecialchannelwhere
anyonewhosodesirescanlearnthenewsatanytimeduringtheday,
thenthenextchannelprovidingthemaximumamountoftimetonews
programmeseverydaywillbeRussia-1.Admittedly,itneedstobetaken
intoaccountthatthischannelgivessomeairtimetoregionalandlocal
newsprogrammes.Nevertheless,viewersofthefederalchannelhavean
opportunityeverydaytogetinvolvedinpoliticalanalysisandon
Sundaytheycanenjoyitforasmuchastwo-and-a-halfhours-longer
thanonotherchannels.Russia-1'scompetitorshaveaboutthesame
amountoftime-betweentwo-and-a-halfandalmostthreehoursonairis
takenupbynews(i.e.atleast10percentofairtime).Theyalso
competeonanequalbasisintheproductionofanalyticalprogrammes-
thosethathelpcitizens"tocorrectlyinterpret"thenews.
Itispossibletotraceratingsfornewsandanalyticalprogrammeson
RussianchannelsfromdataprovidedbytheTNScompany.Onthewhole,
thesphereforratingtelevisioninRussiaturnedouttobethefield
foranumberofrowslinkedtothestrivingofthebigplayersonthe
televisionmarket(firstchannel,VGTRK,theGazprom-Mediaholding
company,theNationalMediaGroup,andSTS-Media[CTCMedia])tolimit
TNS'smonopolyonresearch.FirstChannelevenlauncheditsownproject
toevaluateratings,butitabandonedtheidea.Therewerealsoattempts
toinviteotherlargecompaniesforevaluation,andaccusationsof
unscrupulousnessagainstthemonopoly-holder.Theproblemisthe
difficultyofmeasuringtheaudience,andtheneedtomakelarge
investmentsinequipment.
Nevertheless,theinternationalcompanyisstillcontinuingtostudythe
audienceoftheRussiantelevisionchannels,whileadmittedly
restrictingitselftotheurbanpopulation(intownsofover100,000
people)andnotcountingchildrenuptofouryearsofage.Information
programmesfirmlyoccupytopplacesintheweeklysurveysandareinthe
topthreeofthechannel'smostpopularprogrammes.Thus,inDecember
2015newsandanalyticalprogrammesonTelevisionFirstChanneland
Russia-1werepresentinthe10mostpopularprogrammeswithratingsof
6-8percent(theshareofthosewhowatchedtheprogrammeoftheentire
targetaudience,which,ifweusedatafromthe2010census,comprises
around70millionpeople).Thismeansthataccordingtoroughestimates,
themostpopularnewsprogrammesarewatchedsimultaneouslybybetween
fourandsixmillionpeople.Itseemsthatthisisnotthatmany,
especiallyifyouimaginethescaleofthecountry.Forexample,the
Metronewspaperislookedatbynearlytwomillionpeopleaday,and
morethan20millionvisiteitherYandexorMail.ru.Buttelevision's
strengthisitsaround-the-clockbroadcastingandtherelativediversity
ofchannels,soeffectivelynewsonTVsucceedsduetothenumberof
broadcasts.
Theillusionofdiversityisalsosupportedbythechannelsthemselves
whochooseslightlydifferentstylesforpresentingnewsmaterial,not
tomentiontheobviousspecializationsoftheindividualchannels:the
"distortions"ofNTVandRen-TVserveasthebasisformanyjokes.But
therearenodifferencesintheessentialapproachtonewsandvalues
thatthestatechannels"promote",whichleavestheRussiancitizenwith
asinglepossibleinterpretationofwhatishappening.Initselfthis
hasanegativeeffectoninterestinthenewsagenda,whichisnotthat
greatanyway:peopledonottakeinthenewsthatisreallyimportant
fortheirlives(forexample,fromthesphereoffinancialregulationor
concerninglocalproblems),nottomentionpoliticalandforeignpolicy
problems.Viewingtelevisionnewsprogrammesisnolongersomuchaway
oflearningwhatishappeninginthecountryandtheworldasaritual,
aroutinepastime.
Internet:"Kitties"versuscivilposition
TheInternet,despiteasignificantproportionofhouseholdshaving
accesstoit(accordingtodatafromJ'son&PartnersConsulting29.7
millionhouseholdshadbroadbandaccesstotheInternetatthestartof
2015,andbytheendof2015thenumberofusers,ascalculatedbythe
GfKagency,comprised84million),isnotthemainsourceofinformation
abouttheworldandparticularlythemainsourceofnews.Atthesame
time,thehabitofusingtheInternetindailylifeisgraduallytaking
root,whichmakesthiscommunicationchannelthemainrivalfor
traditionaltelevisioninthelong-term.
ItisobviousthatRussiansusetheInternetdifferently.Thus,GfK
citesinformationthatamongRussiansbetweentheagesof16and29,97
percentusetheInternet-foryoungpeopleeveninsmalltownsithas
becomecommonplace.Itsaudiencecanonlybeexpandednowbyexpanding
theaudienceintheolderagegroupsandthis,ofcourse,ismoredifficult.
AccordingtoTNSRussia,thenumberofRussiansaccessingthewebdaily
comprisesslightlymorethan60percent.Butdataiscitedonlyfor
townswithpopulationsofatleast100,000andalsoamongthe12-54age
group.Accordingtodatafromthe2010census,theanalysiscallson
around40-45percentofthecitizensofRussia-thegroupofthemost
activeageandlivingincomparatively"civilized"conditions.Itwould
belogicaltoassumethattheremainingcitizensdonothavedaily
accesstotheweband,consequently,areunlikelytousetheInternetas
theirmainsourceofnews.Ifweweretoestimatetheproportionof
Russia'sgeneralpopulationaccessingtheInterneteveryday(andthe
estimateisveryrough),thentheywouldmakeuparoundone-thirdof
Russia'spopulationorabout50millionpeople.
Whatdothesenotional30percentluckypeopledoontheweb?A
significantnumberofthesepeoplefirstchecktheirmailonpopular
platforms:Yandex(27.75million),Mail.ru(22.63million),Google
(almost14million)asofDecember2015,theyoccupyfirst,secondand
fourthplacerespectivelyintheratingofvisitstoresources,
accordingtoTNSRussiadata.ThemainRussiansocialnetworkVKontakte
isinthirdplace.Itisvisitedbymorethan22millionoftheRussians
whoopenbrowserseveryday.ThepopularityofforeignFacebook,which
iswidelyseenasapoliticalplatform,issubstantiallylower-itis
openedeverydaybyapproximatelyjustthreepercentofthepopulation
-4.329millionpeople,evenfewerareinterestedinTwitter,fewerthan
one-and-a-halfmillionpeoplevisititeveryday.Thepopularityof
blogsontheLiveJournalsitehasnotyetwanedentirely:1.777million
peopleopenLiveJournaladay.Itturnsoutthattherearemore
connoisseursof"longreads"inRussiathanthosewhoprefershort
"tweets",andthereareevenmorewhoprefertolookat"photos"on
Instagram(thereare1.684millionofthem).
Thefirstmediaoutletthatcouldbecalledtraditional-theRBK
website-isactuallybetweenLiveJournalandInstagram,in15thplace
intherankingofdailyvisits.TheRIANovostisiteisalsopresent
amongthetop20mostpopular,itterminatestheranking.Itisvisited
by1.262millionusersaday,thatislessthanonepercentof
Russians.However,despitethefactthatitlooksverymodestinterms
oftheshareofvisits,thepopularresourcesontheInternetarereally
popularinabsolutefigures.Thus,Yandexastheleaderisaccessedby
morethan27millionpeopleaday,43.5millionaweek,and52.5million
peopleamonth-effectivelymorethanone-thirdoftheentire
populationofRussia.
TheYandexcompanyalsocarriesoutresearchintotheInternetaudience,
theresultsofwhichareofexceptionalinterestfromthepointofview
ofaportraitofInternetusers.Thus,thecompany'sstatisticsconfirm
theopinionthatuserschoosecertaingroupsofresourcesandrarely
readresourcesfromothergroups:theymanagedtomakeaclear
distinctionbetweentheaudiencesofthewebsitesofthetelevision
channels,bignewsagenciesetc,andtheaudiencesofthebusinesspress
andpublicationsforprofessionals(incidentally,RIANovostifallsinto
thefirstgroup,andRBKintothesecond).Agroupoffansofonline
publicationsofaliberalpersuasionemergedandalsoagroupofreaders
ofdailynewspapers,orrathertheirInternetversions.Finally,and
thisisinteresting,FirstChanneldidnotfallintothegroupthat
containedtheremainingtelevisionchannelsbutratherintoagroup
whereinthetraditionalsenseprimarily"women's"publicationswere
concentrated(Internetmagazinesabout"thestars",runningahousehold,
abouthowtolookafterafamilyetc).Evidently,FirstChannel's
websiteisusednottoobtainnewsbuttowatchprogrammesbroadcastby
thechannelonline.Thus,itturnsoutthatthegroups'audiencesreally
donotoverlapandthismeansthatsocialdialogueisnotconductedvia
themedia,andthedifferentsocial(orideological)groupslivein
theirownseparateworlds.Thisisclearlyseenfromtheexampleof
Facebookwheretheuser'sfeedisbasedontheirpreferences,ultimately
sealingthemintoarangeofmoreorlessthesamepeople,thoughtsand
events.
Nevertheless,ahugenumberofpeople,astheTNSdatashow,startto
browsewebpagesbyvisitingthewebsitesofYandexorMail.ru.Itcan
beassumed,incidentally,thatpeoplewhovisitoneoftheseportalsdo
notvisittheother(ortheydososignificantlylessfrequently).The
totalnumberofuserswhovisitoneoftheportalseachdaycomprises
slightlymorethan50million(which,althoughitisveryrough,is
stillmoreorlessinlinewithpreviousestimatesofthenumberof
dailyusersoftheInternet.Bothportals,inadditiontohostingmail,
alsooffertheirvisitorsaselectionofnews(createdautomatically),
whichreflectsthenewsattractingthemostmediaattention.Therange
ofnewsofferedonitsfirstpagebyMail.ruissignificantlybroader
thanthatofYandex.
AccordingtoTNSdata,Yandex'shomepage(withthetopfivenewsitems)
isopenedeverydaybymorethan20millionpeopleandslightlymore
thansixmillionvisititsnews(andonaverageview3.5pages).While
visitsofMail.rulookmuchmoremodestagainstthisbackdrop:thehome
pageisopenedby14millionpeopleandthenewsbyjust3.8million.
Admittedly,onaverageavisitorofMail.ruviewsslightlymorecontent
(3.9pages).Soitisnotsurprisingthattheprinciplesforselecting
Yandex'stopnewsstorieshaverepeatedlycausedrowswithapolitical
contextwhenithasbeenactivelydiscussedonthewebwhether
Yandex.Novostineedstoberecognizedasamediaoutletandthe
correspondingliabilitybeestablishedfortheservice.Despite
scandalousexamples-intheviewofpatriotsandconservatives-of
Yandex.Novosti's"anti-Russian"attitudetowardsinformingRussiansand
alsoattentiontotheproblemonthepartofVladimirPutin,therowwas
hushedup-orcametonothingitself.Possiblybecausethenewsthat
appearsonthehomepageisnotofgreatinteresttoawideaudience,
despitetheattimesextremelyflamboyantheadlines.Admittedly,
deputiesfromtheCPRF[CommunistPartyoftheRussianFederation]and
JustRussiahaverecentlystartedtolobbyforrestrictionsfornews
aggregators.
However,itisnotatallnecessarytobeamediaoutletforanInternet
resourcetoattractattention,particularlywithquiteanarrow
audience,anexampleofwhichisdemonstratedbythesocialnetworks.
VKontakteisapopularsourceofinformationfortheyoungaudience-to
suchanextentthatperhapstheabsolutemajorityofpeopleagedbetween
12and30haveapageonthissocialnetwork-thatinfactthelackof
suchapagegivesrisetoquestions.DespitethefactthatFacebookis
farbehindthisnetworkintermsofthenumberofhitsaday,weekand
month,itisalsooneofthemostvisitedprojectsinRussia.
Foralongtimenow,informationinthesocialnetworksspreadsnotonly
fromusertouserbutalsoviapublicpageswherecontentiscreated
likeinthemoretraditionalmedia.Publicpagesalsogeneratememesand
transmitthemtogetherwiththenews,enrichingitwithnewnuancesand
meanings,andinthissensethenewsthattheyprovideisassimilated
verywellbytheiraudience.Itmakessensetopayattentiontothemost
replicatedcontent.
ThelistoftoppublicpagesonVKontakteincludesmainlyentertainment
pages:publicpagescontainingjokes,pictures,"lifeadvice",reviews
ofmoviesandmusic,recipes,etc.So,essentially,notasinglepublic
pagethatpublishesnews.Andwhiletheaudienceofsubscribersofthe
mostpopularentertainmentpublicpagesexceedseightmillionpeople,it
doesnotevenreachonemillionforthemostpopularnewspage.Atthe
sametimethesocialnetworksaresocialnetworksinordertoprovide
peoplewithasemblanceofpersonalcontactwithnewsmakers.Themost
popularmanonVkontakte-PremierDmitriyMedvedev-hasmorethantwo
millionsubscribers.Butotherpopularindividualshavenothingtodo
withnewsinitssocio-politicalcontext,soitshouldbeacknowledged
thatVKontaktedoesnotperformanyfunctioninthecapacityofanews
source.
Facebookseemstobeaimedatanaudiencethatismoreinterestedinthe
political-economicandsocialagenda.But,firstly,theactualsizeof
thisaudienceissignificantlysmallerthanVKontakte'sand,secondly,
inactualfactthisisnotquitetrue.Brandpagesenjoythegreatest
(andreallyhuge)popularityonthissocialnetwork.Infirstplaceis
NikeFootballRussia-accordingtodatafromfacebook.ksan.comasof
March2015thispagehadbeenlikedby36millionusersfromRussia.But
whataboutthemedia?Infirstplaceintermsofthenumberoflikesis
AdMe,previouslyaportalaboutdesignandadvertising,andnowitis
moreofalifestyleblog.Thispagehasmorethan1.5millionuserswho
seenewsfromitintheirfeed.Bywayofcomparison,thesamenumberof
peopleseeupdatesfromthebrandEvianinRussia(20thplaceamong
brands).AndinsecondplaceistheVesti.rupublication,almost1.4
millionsubscribers.Interestinthispage,accordingtothesamedata,
increasedverygradually,startingin2012,sotherecanbenoquestion
ofarapidsurgeininterestinthewakeoftheUkrainianeventsin
2014:about300,000peoplelikedthepageforthefirsttimebetween
January2014andJanuary2015,thisisevenslightlylessthanbetween
January2013andJanuary2014.ApartfromAdMeandVesti,thetop10
mediapagesonRussianFacebookalsoincludeRIANovosti,thetelevision
channelDozhd,Vedomosti,Lenta.ru,Gazeta.ru,FirstChannel,National
GeographicRussia,andNaukaIZhizn[ScienceandLife].The
representationofsocio-politicalmediainthislistisverysignificant
anditsideologicalorientationhintsatthepolarizationofpolitical
discourseonFacebook,justlikeinsocietyasawhole.Inaddition,
thisdataprovesthatdespitetheexistenceofallthemeansfor
monitoringthenewsonthesocialnetwork,onlyasmallproportionof
usersusethistool.
Infact,asalsointhedatacitedaboveontheuseofInternetmediato
obtaininformationasawhole.Russianshavesufficientaccessto
informationontheInternet,anditisnotonlyaquestionof
information"imposed"bythestatebutalsoofotheropinionsoneach
problem.Theyalsohaveanopportunitytodiscussanynews.However,
thisisbecomingthelotonlyofaminorityinterestedinthe
socio-politicalagenda,whilemostcitizensprefertousetheInternet
forentertainmentandseekinginformationfortheirownneeds.
DespitethefactthatWesterncountriesseemtoustobesignificantly
moredevelopedfromthepointofviewofopportunitiestoconsume
informationontheInternet,itcannotbesaidthatcitizensinEurope
onthewholeusetheseopportunitiesactively,atleastdefinitelynot
inallcountries.Eurostatcitesinterestingstatisticsthatareevena
bitshocking:theorganizationisobservingasectionofpeoplein
variouscountrieswhohavenevergoneontotheInternetunderany
circumstancesintheirentirelives.Peopleagedbetween16and74are
beingstudiedandthelatestdataisfor2015.Theindicatorstypicalof
NorwayandLuxembourgseem"appropriate"tous:oneandtwopercentof
thepopulationrespectively.InsuccessfulGermanytherearealready10
percentsuchpeople,inFranceitis11percent.InPoland,Lithuania,
PortugalandItalymorethanonequarterofthepopulationisnot
personallyfamiliarwiththeInternet.InBulgariaandRomaniathereare
aroundone-thirdsuchcitizens.AndinTurkey,whichalsogotintothe
Europeansample-44percent.
Less"shocking"butstillusefulinformationisprovidedbyEurostat
withregardtowhichcountriesofEuropehavethelargestproportionof
peoplewhousetheInternet"often":thatis,atleastonceaquarter.
FromthisindicatoritcanbeclearlyseenhowtheInternethasbecome
commonplaceforNorthernEuropebutforthesouthitisnotyetan
importantpartofeverydaylife.Thisislinkedbothtothelevelof
urbanization,andtothestructureoftheeconomy,andtoeconomic
development,andtoculturalcharacteristics.Atthesametime,the
broadspreadoftheInternetenablesoldcommunicationhabitstobe
changed.Thus,Eurostatcitesdataabouthowmanypeopleusethe
Internetinvariouscountriesforcommunicatingwiththestateand
municipalpowerbodies.TheScandinaviancountrieswheremorethan50
percentofcitizensinteractwiththegovernmentonline,aswellas
NorthernandWesternEuropewheretheInternetisusedasa
communicationschannelinbothdirectionsbybetween30and40percent,
areverydifferentinthisrespecttothesouthandeast,whichare
closertoRussiaintermsofthisfigure.Ifthegovernmentistobe
believed,thenumberofcitizensregisteredontheGosuslugportalis
approaching14percent.Approximatelythesameproportionas
communicateswiththestateviatheInternetinGreece,Croatiaand
Bulgaria.TherateofgrowthintheInternetaudienceoftheGosuslug
portalisimpressivesincewewillovertakeItaly,Poland,Lithuania,
andPortugalwithregardtothisfigureinthenextfewyears.Thereis
alsoanoutsiderintermsofthisindicatorintheEU-Romania,where
onlysevenpercentofcitizenscommunicatewiththestateviatheInternet.
Nevertheless,interactingwiththestateviatheInternet,whichis
usualinthenorthofEurope,doesnotnecessarilymeanahighlevelof
interestinnewsalthoughthereisanecdotalevidencethatonlinenews
isattractingsignificantattentionamongtheaudience.Forexample,in
Germanyin2009abouthalfofallInternetusersstatedthattheyused
thewebtokeepupwithevents(datafromtheEuropeanJournalism
Centre).WhileinItalywhereInternetpenetrationisnotasmarkedas
intheNorth,thesituationin2009wasverysimilartotheRussianone:
thefirstfourplacesintherankingofpagevisitsweretakenbysearch
engines/mailservices/newsaggregators,andthentheInternetpageof
theLaRepubblicanewspaperwasinfifthplace.InNorway,oneofthe
countriesthatstartedtodeveloptheInternetearlierthanothers,by
2009theuseoftheworldwidewebtoobtainnewshadalreadyexceeded
figuresformediatypessuchasradioandnewspapers.
Printedpressandradio:Collectiveunconscious
Thesetypesofmediaarelogicallycombinedinasinglesectionsince
theyareintheprocessof"dyingout"aschannelsforobtainingnews.
Thisdoesnotmeanthattheyaregraduallyceasingtobeindemand,this
appliestoradioinparticular,buttheyareveryrarelyusedbypeople
forgettingacquaintedwiththeagenda.
Themassreadingofnewspapershasbecomeathingofthepast,andthis
hasbeenactivelyfacilitatedbythespreadoftheInternet.FromLevada
CentredatagatheredbetweenNovember2003andMarch2014,itcanbe
clearlyseenhowpeople'sinterestintheprintedpresshasfallen:the
numberofpeoplewhodonotreadnewspapersregularlyincreasedfrom59
percentto67percentandthenumberoffansofseveralpublications
almosthalved(to10percent).Typically,pollsinEuropeshowa
reductionininterestintheprintedpressfromgenerationto
generation,butinanumberofcountriestheprintedpressis
maintainingitsposition.ThusinGermany,accordingtodatafromthe
EuropeanJournalismCentre,interestintheprintedpresshasbeen
retainedandcitizensreadlocalandregionalpublicationsquiteoften.
Inprinciple,thestrongpresenceofregionalprintedmediainall
segmentsoffrequencyofpublicationisalsotypicaloftheRussianregions.
Whenchoosingwhattoreadfromnewspapersandmagazines,Russians
settleonpublicationswithbroad-basedtopics,moreoverthosethatmost
likelydonotincludepoliticalnews.Letuscomparetheratingsof
dailyandweeklynewspapersandmagazines:letustakedatathathas
beencollectedforRussiaasawholebythecompanyTNS.Thenumberof
newspaperreadersistheaveragenumberofreadersofasingleedition,
inthiscasetheaveragefortheperiodfromMaytoOctober2015.
Thedatashowedthatinthecaseofdailyandweeklynewspapers,
residentsofMoscowandStPetersburgmakeaverylargecontributionto
theaudience,andsometimestheproportionofreadersfromthetwo
capitalscomprisesmuchmorethanhalf.Thisisnotsurprisinginthe
situationwith,forexample,theMetronewspaper.Generallyspeaking,
thisnewspaperrepresentsagreatexampleofhowthemediahas
successfullyoccupieditsnichebyprovidingdiverseand"light"content
whenthereaderneedsthis.
RossiyskayaGazeta,whichisgenerallyspeakingamediaoutletofstate
importancebecauseoftheneedtopublishlegislativeacts,hasalmost
halfasmanyreaders.Weeklypublicationsarenotthatdifferentin
termsoftheirpopularityalthoughthegapbetweentheleader(Argumenty
iFakty)andthenumbertwo(KomsomolskayaPravda)ismorethana
quarterofthenumberofreadersofthelatter.
ItisworthnotingthatArgumentyiFaktyisapublicationthatfocusses
specificallyoncoveringsocio-politicalandeconomictopics,moreover
itkeepsthefocusonthepersonalconsequencesofthevariouseventsin
thecountryandtheworld.Thissame"genre"isalsoretainedinthe
paperversionofthenewspaper.Atthesametime,KomsomolskayaPravda
initsweeklyformatveryactivelyconcentratesonthe
political-economicagenda,whilethepaperweeklyversionhasmoreofan
entertainmentformat.Asaresult,KomsomolskayaPravdalosesthe
competitiontootherdailysuppliersofsocio-politicalnews(andfirst
andforemost,totelevision),andatthesametimecompetesinthe
entertainmentweeklysegmentwithsimilarpublications"witha
televisionguide".
Anotherinterestingphenomenonisthepresenceofthedailybusiness
newspaperKommersantintherankingofpublicationswiththelargest
audience.Kommersant'scompetitorsinthisnichearealongwaybehind.
Norarebusinessmagazinesandnewspaperspresenteitheramongthe
weekliesorthemonthlies.Thiscanbeexplained,meanwhile,notonlyby
readers'lackofinterestinananalysisofeventsbutalsobythefact
thatasignificantsectionoftheaudienceofthesepublicationsismore
usedtousingtheirInternetversion.
Whilethe"domination"ofentertainmentpublicationshasnotyet
completelysqueezedoutthesocio-politicalamongprintednewspapersand
magazines,thenamongtheradiostationsthisisalreadyafait
accompli.AccordingtoTNSdataforRussiaforthesecondhalfof2015,
theleadersintermsoftheaveragenumberoflistenerswere:Yevropa
Plyus,DorozhnoyeRadio,Avtoradio,RusskoyeRadio,andRetroFM.Allof
theseareexclusivelyentertainmentradiostations.Letuscomparetheir
audienceswiththoseofthesocio-politicalstations.Around11.325
millionpeoplelistentoYevropaPlyuseveryday.Mayak,RadioRussia
andVestiFMhavealmostthreetimesfewer,EkhoMoskvyfourtimes
fewer,andKomsomolskayaPravdaandBusinessFM10timesfewerormore.
EveninMoscow,despitethepresenceofEkhoMoskvy,theleadersinthe
firstfiveintermsoftheTNSdailyratings(fortheperiodof
October-December2015)werestillAvtoradio,RusskoyeRadio,Yevropa
Plyusand...RadioShanson.Allofthisconfirmsthepointthatradio
hasbecomeaspecificmediaoutletformotoristsandhascompletelylost
itspositionintheguiseofamediaoutletandhasturnedintoa
variantofamusicplaylist.Fromtimetotime,19percentof
Muscoviteslistentonewsonthemusicalradiostations-accordingto
datafromLevadaCenterforMarch2014.
Mainconclusions
Asthestatisticscitedaboveshow,theInternetisgraduallycatching
televisionup"intermsofviews",butbothnewssitesandradioand
printedpublicationsarestillalongwayfromthepopularityofnews
programmesonFirstChannelorRussia-1.Thesecretoftheirpopularity
ismostlikelynotthatcitizenslikethetopics,orstyle,orthe
presenterofthenewsbutthatviewingtelevisionontheirfavourite
channelsatacertaintimehasbecomeahabit.Inconnectionwiththis,
itcanbeassumedthatRussiansdonotpaythatmuchattentiontothe
contentofnewsprogrammes(withtheexception,ofcourse,ofthe
sensationalstories).
Atthesametime,personalcontactsplayaverybigroleasamechanism
forobtainingandinterpretinginformation:thediscussionofnewsin
thefamily,withfriends,acquaintancesandsoon.Thisisperhapsthe
simplestwayof"fencingoff"theirpictureoftheworldfrom
informationandopinionsthreatingtodestroythestereotypestheyhave
developed.Russiansminimizetheirinteractionwith"alien"information,
somethingthatcanbeseenveryclearlyfromtheexampleofvisitsto
newsresourcesontheInternet.Thewebdoesnotunitepeoplewith
differentviews,butjustemphasizestheirdifferences.
Moreover,thestatisticsfortheuseoftheInternetindicatethatnews
informationonlyinterestsacomparativelysmallnumberofcitizens-
andthisisdespitethefactthatInternetpublicationscurrently
possessgreaterfreedomofexpressionofanypositionthantelevision
does.Newshasnotbecomeaninanywaylarge-scalesubjectfor
discussiononthesocialnetworks(despitethefactthatasitseemsto
manyusersofFacebook:thisisjustinthefeedsofasmallgroupof
people)wherethereiseveryopportunitytocreatecontentand
relativelyfreeinterpretation.Themainsuppliersofnewsinthepast-
radioandtheprintedpress-havealmostcompletelylosttheir
importanceinthiscapacityhavingbecomemoreofareceptaclefor
entertainingcontent.Themainconclusionfromthis-thereisalackof
anyinterestamongtheoverwhelmingmajorityofpeopleinadetailed
studyofthenewsandobtainingatruepictureoftheworldonadaily
basis.
#12
www.opendemocracy.net
April21,2016
Russia'sregions:federalismanditsdiscontents
CreatingtheappearanceofstabilityistheRussianpoliticalelite's
primarygoal.Yetcolonial-likeruleoverthecountry'sregions,
combinedwithalackofcivicactivity,harmstheKremlin'slegitimacy
ontheground.
ByBadmaByurchiev
BadmaByurchievwasborninKalmykiain1973,andhasworkedasa
journalistsince2003.HecurrentlyworksforKavpolit,wherehecovers
DagestanandKalmykia.HehaspreviouslyworkedforBolshoyKavkazand
CaucasianKnot.
SinceVladimirPutin'srisetopowerin1999,theRussianauthorities
haverespondedtoanythreat,whetherrealorimagined,withrepressive
legislation.
Thehistoryofthepowerverticalisthusoneofthemethodical
restrictionofcitizen'srightsandfreedoms.
Meanwhile,Russia'sover-centralisedstateisincreasinglyisolating
itselffromthe"multinationalpeopleoftheRussianFederation",which
is,astheConstitutionstates,thesolesourceofauthorityinthecountry.
Thus,Russia'spoliticalelitesarenotonlylosingtheirso-called
"connectionwiththeland",buterodingpopularfaithintheelite's
legitimacyasrulers.
That'sbecauseinRussiatoday,relationsbetweenthecentreandthe
regionsarereminiscentmoreofanimperialmetropolisanditscolonies.
TheauthoritiesseeRussiaasanever-endingsourceofnaturalandhuman
resources.
Theelitesusurptheincomederivedfromtheseresourcesascolonisers:
themajorityofthepopulationarepaidenoughjusttosurvive.Andif
you'redissatisfied,there'salwaysanappropriatechargetobefoundin
theCriminalCode.
Self-determinationanddesecration
Theendof2015sawElista,thecapitalofKalmykia,hostacongressof
theKalmykianpeople.Forarepublicofthissize,thecongresswas
large.Butneithernationalmedia,northelocalofficialpresscovered
thiseventinanyway.
Perhapsthelackofcoveragewasamistake.
Theforum's200delegatesendedupvotingforaresolutionthatledwith
thedemandforanewconstitutionfortherepublic,onethatwould
reflectthe"inviolablerightoftheOirat-Kalmykpeopletodecidetheir
ownfate."Thisisimportant,becausewhenKalmykiafirstbecamea
subjectoftheRussianFederation,itslegislaturedidnotmention
self-determination-unlikethelegislaturesofothernationalrepublics
thatjoinedRussiaafterthefalloftheUSSR.
KalmykiareturnedtonationalnewsatthestartofApril2016whenan
athletefromneighbouringDagestanwasforcedtoapologisepubliclyfor
desecratingastatueoftheBuddha.
ThesestoriesrevealtheRussianmedia'spriorities.Russianviewers
findinterethnicconflictsfarmoreinterestingthanpeople'sattempts
toself-organiseanddefendtheirrights.
Theeventsthemselvesarealsorevealing.
TheKalmykpeople'scongressmayhavebeenrepresentative,butitwas
thesecondincident-whenanoffending"outsider"hadtobepunished-
thatturnedouttobemorepowerfulinbringingpeopletogether.
"Peopleonlyreacttostrong,directsourcesofdispleasure.However,
whenit'sacaseofotherimportantmatters,noonecomesoutto
protest,"aKalmykbloggercomplained,speakingofthelocal
population'spreference"tonotreacttotheauthoritiesatall"."After
all,youcanboilafrogaliveifyouraisethetemperatureinapan
slowly-itwon'tjumpout."
Theblogger'smetaphormightbeabitheavy-handed,butitreflectsthe
relationshipbetweenRussia'sauthoritiesandthepublicalltoowell.
Thereisonethingmissingfromthismetaphor,though:theabilityto
verygraduallyraisethetemperatureisagoodonetohaveifyou'rea
cook-butnotwhenyou'rerunningacountry.
Beneaththesurface
AweekbeforetheincidentinKalmykia'scapitalElista,IgorBarinov,
theheadofRussia'sFederalNationalitiesAgency(FADN),declaredthat
ethnicandreligioustensionsinthecountrywerelikelytoflareup.
AttheStateDuma'sQuestionTimeon23March,Barinovstatedthat,
"Nationalconflictsaredirectlyconnectedtoeconomicproblemsandthe
ineffectivenessoftheauthorities."
AccordingtoBarinov,certainregionsofRussiaareseeing"radicalised
religiousstructuresjoinwiththenon-systemicoppositiontocriticise
thestate".
"Forthemeantime,"Barinovsaid,"thiscriticismismainlyconnected
tosocialwelfareissues,housing,utilitiesandecology".Bythetime
theparliamentaryelectioncampaignstarts,though,thiscriticismwill
takeona"political,nationalandreligiousovertone",hewarned.
BarinovthuscalledonRussia'sregionsto"bereadytoreact
accordingly"andproposedlegislationforextrajudicialblockingof
websitesthat"donotformallycomeunderthedefinitionof'callsto
massdisorder',butthatfurtherescalateinterethnicandinterfaith
conflicts."
Thus,atoppublicofficialconfirmedthatpotentialmobilisationson
ethnicorreligiousgroundswillbedirectlyconnectedtoeconomic
problemsandthestate'slackofresponse-butchosetoampupRussia's
anti-extremismlegislationinsteadoftacklingtherootsoftheproblem.
Barinov'sactionplanisnotsurprising.Thestateisnotinvolvedin
solvingtheproblemsofhundredsofdifferentethnicgroupsinRussia.
Instead,theKremlinisbusycreatingtheappearanceofstability.In
particular,itiscreatingtherightconditionsforlocalauthoritiesto
deploythe"administrativeresources"atthisyear'selections,andthus
forestallanyunexpected(read:unpleasant)resultsforMoscow.
Barinovdoesn'thidethefactthatoneofhisministry'smaintasksis
to"buildapowerverticalintheregions".Indeed,theFADNbelieves
that"unifyingtheapproachtonationalityissuesinallregions"isan
importantstepinthisdirection.
Acolonisingpoliticalmentality
Itgoeswithoutsayingthat,intheseconditions,agenuinefederal
politicalstructurecannotexist.
AsarecentcourtdecisionfromKhanty-Mansiiskshows,theword
"federalisation"isnowbeingusedsynonymouslywith"stirringup
interfaithantagonism","changingthesystemof
administrative-territorialmanagement","separatism"and"subvertingthe
constitutionalorder".
Thefederalauthorities'colonisingmentalityisthusheavilyregulating
andevencriminalisinganysmallattemptsatself-determination.
InMarch,theMinistryofJusticedeclaredtheBataniFoundation,which
isdedicatedtosupportingindigenouspeoplesinRussia'snorth,Siberia
andtheFarEast,a"foreignagent".
AccordingtoPavelSulyandziga,Batani'schairman,therootofthe
conflictwiththebureaucracycomesdowntoindigenouspeoples'rights
totraditionalhuntinggrounds,fishingareasandterritoryforgrazing
theiranimals.
Suchconflictshaveledtoariseinthenumberofcriminalcasesopened
againstindigenouspeopleintheKhanty-Mansiautonomousregion.Rights
activistsstatethatmostresourcecompaniesprefernottonegotiate
withindigenousrepresentativesanymore,butactviathemostpowerful
stateministries.
NewsalongthisthemeregularlyappearsintheRussianpress.
Forexample-avillageleaderfromPrimorskykraireportedonthe
terriblesituationinRussia'sFarEastattheMoscowEconomicForumin
Marchofthisyear.
Adayafterthereport,newsbrokeofhowKursk'sregionalcouncil
publiclyobstructedOlgaLi,alocalcouncilwomanandnewspapereditor.
Li'ssharplycriticalvideoaddresstoPutin,whichwasdedicatedbyand
largetoregionalpolitics,hasnowresultedinacriminalcasefor
slander.
Nomassprotestsinsight
ButwhatisreallyhappeninginRussia'sregions?Canwetalkaboutany
signsofanti-colonialresistance?
Well,whileDumadeputieshavebeguntotalkaboutthepossibilityofa
"revolutionarysituation"inresponsetothegrowinggapbetween
Russia'srichandpoor,expertssuchasDenisVolkovandNatalia
Zubarevichagreethatwe'reunlikelytoseeanoutbreakofmassprotest
activityanytimesoon.
Withnationaltelevisionnetworksfirmlyundercontrol,theRussian
governmentismanagingtomaintainorder.Theoppositionisyettooffer
analternativeagendaonpoliticalorsocialissuesthatwouldattracta
significantsectionofthepopulation.Andtherisksassociatedwith
protestaresohigh,it'ssimplerjustadapttothefallingliving
standardsthanfightforabetterfuture.
Thatsaid,Zubarevich,theauthorofthe"FourRussias"concept,
believesthatRussia'sregionsare,byandlarge,conservative,anda
bulwarkofsupportforthecurrentregime.
ForZubarevich,theonlyexceptionsarethe"underdeveloped"regions
withamorevolatilepoliticalatmosphere,suchastheNorthCaucasus
andsouthernSiberia,wherepossiblefuturescenariosevenincludestate
violenceunleashedagainstthepopulace.
TheNorthCaucasus,inparticular,iswitnessingagrowingideological
dividebetweenstateandsociety,thoughregionalexpertsvaryintheir
estimationsofthethreatitmaypose.
AccordingtoNikolaiSilaevoftheCenteroftheProblemsofthe
CaucasusandRegionalSecurity,thethreatofnationalismdoesn'treally
workasatoolofpublicpoliticsinRussia.
"Thesingleideologicalbaseformovementsthatthreatenanopen
fragmentationofthestatecouldbecomepoliticalIslam,"writesSilaev.
However,hecontinuestosaythat"politicalIslamhasnorealistic
modelofthestateorclearspatialboundaries."Thiskindofpolitical
communitywillcometoformanetworked"parallelworld",onethatwill
bothfightthestateandtrytofindformsofintegration.
DenisSokolovislessoptimistic.Asheseesit,"theideologyofthe
secularstatehascompletelylosttoIslamintheeastoftheNorth
Caucasusduetoitsproblemswiththecourtsandsocialmobility".
Sokolovbelievesthat2016willsee"aconfrontationbetweenthe
securityservicesandasignificantnumberofMuslimslivinginthe
NorthCaucasusrisetothefore".
Societycompensatesforfailuresofthestate
SokolovisthefirstspecialistontheCaucasustoinvestigatethe
curiousnewsstoriescomingoutofDagestan.Here,jamaats(village
communities)havestartedtopaymedicalprofessionalstovisittheir
villagesattheirownexpense(asarule,thesevisitingdoctorsare
kinsmenwho'vebeenworkinginthebigcities.)Thisturnedouttobe
successful,andnowthispracticehasextendedtoteachingstaff.
Societyhasthusmadeheadwayinanareawherethestatehasfailedin
spiteofitsmulti-billionroubleprojects.Takingresponsibilityfor
theirowninfrastructure,villagershavesetupqualitymedicineand
educationforthemselves,atthesametimeaddressinganoftenemotional
issue-bringingbacktheirkintothemountains.
Ofcourse,we'retalkingaboutamaximumoftenvillageshere.Thisisa
localsuccessevenforDagestan.Butnothingisstoppingother
communitiesfromtryingthisout.
Still,themostimportantthinghereishowthisproblemisbeing
solved.Ifinvitingdoctorsisamatterofsurvival(itwaspromptedby
arisingdeathrate,includingofpatientsduringsimpleoperations),
thenfindinggoodteachersisasignalthateducationisindemand,an
investmentinlong-termdevelopment.
Anineffectivestatecanonlywelcometheseinitiatives-thestory
aboutDagestanwasshownonfederaltelevision.
Butifyoutakeintotheaccountthefactthatsecularideologyis
losingouttoIslaminDagestan,thenwecanassumethatsomething
biggerisbehindthesedevelopments.PerhapsitiswhatHannahArendt
describedastheelite'stemptationtosubstituteviolenceforpower
whenitbeginstoslipfromtheirgrasp.
Arendt'sdiagnosisisalltooreminiscentofthemodernRussian
Federation.Putin'sconceptsofthe"RussianWorld"andpatriotismas
theonlypossiblenationalideaarecloselyintertwinedwithhow
Russia'slawonseparatismandthelawonforeignagentsareapplied-
and,moreoftenthatnot,withanti-extremistandanti-terrorist
legislation.
Thewaytheyareappliedisevidenceofafull-blowncrisisinRussian
domesticpolicies.
Frustrationthatturnstoapathy
Socialmediaisanaptreflectionofthemoodofordinarypeople.Take
thisrecentquestionfromauserinaVKontaktegroupinKalmykia:"Can
youpointtoanypositiveresultsoftheheadofKalmykiaAlexeiOrlov,
who'sruledtherepublicforsixyearsnow?"
"Icanonlyseeone,"thesameuserstates,"Peopleintheregionsdon't
relyontheauthorities.Theysolvetheirproblemsthemselves."
Meanwhile,abloggerfromNorthOssetiaupdateshisstatus:"I'vehad
enough.Thehassle,intrigue,politics,money(anditsabsence),the
idiocyinsideandoutsidethesystem...Peoplehavehadtheirpriorities
wrongfortoolong."
Everyday,mynewsfeedisfullofthesekindsofposts.Apathyandthe
realisationthatyoucan'texpectanythingfromtheauthoritiesarethe
mainmotifsofdiscussionsonRussiasocialmedia.
Atthecoreofthissenseofemptiness,thisideologicalvacuumthat
becameobviousafterthefalloftheSovietUnion,liesnothingbuta
longingforthehomeland.Noonefeelsathomehere:neitherethnic
minorities,whoexperiencediscriminationduetotheirethnicity,nor
RussianSlavs,outragedatthecorruptionofpublicofficialsandthe
courtswillingtoaverttheirgazewhenso-called"peoplefromoutof
town"commitcrimes.
EmilPain,aprominentpoliticalscientistandethnographer,recently
spokeofRussiaas"acountrywithoutasociety,acountrywithouta
nation".
Yetthetransformationofapopulationintoanationisnotataskfor
thestate.Rulingelitesaremoreinterestedinsubjectsthancitizens.
Anationemergeswhenpeoplearereadytofightfortheirownrights.
It'seasierfornationalrepublicstoformacommonagendaonthis
issue.AlthoughthefactthatacongressofKalmykpeople,ratherthan
peoples,wasrecentlyheldsuggeststhattheideologyofethnic,rather
thancivicnationalism,iswhatbroughtpeopletogether.
MultiethnicDagestancould,inprinciple,overcomethesenarrowborders.
Whilelocalnationalismdividessociety,Islamoffersaplatformfor
consolidationinthefuture-toformthepoliticalnationofDagestan.
Butheretheauthoritieshavesuccessfullymaintainedtheartificial
confrontationbetween"traditional"and"non-traditional"Muslimsfora
longtime.
Inanover-centralisedpoliticalsystem,there'slittlepointtalkingof
society'schancetotakebackthestateinasingleregion.The
LeviathanthatisthestatewillreacttowhatArendtdescribedasthe
"slippingawayofpower"withanintensivebuild-upofthepower
ministries,whichremaincapableenoughtopreventanyattemptto
monopolisethecentre.
GiventhatPutin'snewNationalGuardissubordinateonlytotheheadof
state,wecanseehowtheverticalseesthesolutiontothenational
question.
Butistheresomethingthatwillpromptthepopulationtofightfor
theirrightsandthuscreateanationalongalternative,democratic
lines?LiahGreenfield,ascholarofnationalisms,believesthatanew
eliteisneededforthiskindoffuture-anelitethatwillfightnot
foritsownpower,butforthepeople'srespect,giventheconnection
betweenindividualdignityandnationalidentity
Unfortunately,astheKalmykpeople'scongressinElistashows,people
arealwaysreadyto"forceotherstorespectthem"onalocallevel,but
arefarlessreadytodefendtheirdignitywhenitcomestothe
arbitraryruleofpublicofficialsandlawenforcement.
Intoday'sRussia,it'smorerealistictowaitforthestatetoreach
thefinalstageofexhaustionandletpowerslipfromitsgrasp.Of
course,thenwe'llhavetodealwiththesamequestions:youcan'tbuild
anationwithoutcivicactivity.
#13
TheNewYorkReviewofBooks
April19,2016
Trump'sPutinFantasy
ByTimothySnyder
TimothySnyderistheHousumProfessorofHistoryatYale.
FewforeignleadersseementhusiasticabouttheprospectofaDonald
Trumppresidency.Butthereisonewhoshouldbepleased:Vladimir
Putin.OrsoTrumpseemstothink.MostprominentRepublicanscriticize
PresidentObamaforreactingtoofeeblytoRussiandomesticoppression,
theRussianinvasionofsouthernandsoutheasternUkraine,andRussia's
growingthreattoNATOinEasternEurope.Trump,ontheotherhand,has
praisedPutin's"strong"leadershipathome,calledNATO"obsoleteand
expensive,"andmadeapointofdescribinghisfriendshipwith
Putin-thoughitseemstobeentirelyimaginary.
Fromthebeginningofhiscandidacylastsummer,Trumphasrepeatedly
claimedthathewould"getalongverywellwithVladimirPutin."Last
fall,afterhewasinterviewedonthesamesegmentof60Minutesas
Putin,hewarmlyreferredtotheexperienceofbeing"stablemates"as
"goingwell."Thiswasstrikinglyatoddswithreality,sinceTrumpwas
intheUSandPutininRussiaduringtheinterviews,andthetwomendid
notinfactmeet.
Moreextraordinarystill,Trumphasindicated,inhisselectionlast
monthofCarterPageasaforeignpolicyadviser,thatAmericanpolicy
toEuropewillbeguidedbyRussianinterests.Page,heretoforeknownas
anadvisertoRussia'sstategascompany,hasbeenamongtheprominent
AmericansspreadingRussianpropagandaaboutUkraine'srevolutionin
2014andtheRussianinvasionthatfollowed.Inhiswritingshehas
questionedUkraine'sstatusasanindependentstate,whichisprecisely
thelinethatMoscowtooktojustifyitsinvasion.He
maintains-preposterously-thatUkraineislikeQuebecinsideaRussia
thatislikeCanada.QuebecisaprovinceandUkraineisacountry.He
hasreferredtoRussia'sannexationofUkraine'sCrimeanpeninsula,a
signalviolationofinternationallaw,asthe"so-calledannexation."
ItisnothardtoseewhyTrumpmightchoosePutinashisfantasy
friend.PutinistherealworldversionofthepersonTrumppretendsto
beontelevision.Trump'sfinancialsuccess(suchasitis)hasbeenas
aNewYorkrealestatespeculator,aworldofprivatedeal-makingthat
canseemroughandtough-untilyoucompareittotheRussiaofthe1990s
thatultimatelyproducedthePutinregime.Trumppresentshimselfasthe
makerofafinancialempirewhoiswillingtobreakalltherules,
whereasthatiswhatPutininfactis.ThusfarTrumpcanonlyverbally
abusehisopponentsatrallies,whereasPutin'sopponentsare
assassinated.ThusfarTrumpcanonlyhavehiscampaignmanagerroughup
journalistshedoesn'tlike.InRussiasomeofthebestjournalistsare
infactmurdered.
PresidentPutin,whoisanintelligentandpenetratingjudgeofmen,
especiallymenwithmasculinityissues,hasquicklydrawnthecorrect
conclusion.Inthepasthehasdonewellforhimselfbyrecruitingamong
politicianswhoexhibitgreatervanitythandecency,suchasSilvio
BerlusconiandGerhardSchrder.ThepremiseofRussianforeignpolicy
totheWestisthattheruleoflawisonebigjokethepracticeof
RussianforeignpolicyistofindprominentpeopleintheWestwho
agree.MoscowhasfoundsuchpeoplethroughoutEuropeuntiltheriseof
TrumptheideaofanAmericanwhowouldvolunteertobeaKremlinclient
wouldhaveseemedunlikely.Trumprepresentsanunprecedentedstandard
ofAmericanservility,andshouldthereforebecultivatedasafuture
Russianclient.
TrumpcorrectlysaysthatPutinrespectsstrength.ButofcoursePutin
prefersweakness,whichiswhatTrumpoffers.AsPutinunderstands
perfectlywell,thepresidentoftheUnitedStateshasstandingin
Russia,andenjoysfarsuperiorpowertothepresidentofRussia,only
insofarasheorshemobilizesthemoralandpoliticalresourcesofa
rule-of-lawstate.ItispreciselyTrump'sposeofstrengththatreveals
hiscrucialvulnerability.AsanyonefamiliarwithRussianpolitics
understands,anAmericanpresidentwhoshunsallianceswithfellow
democracies,praisesdictators,andprefers"deals"totheruleoflaw
wouldbeaveryeasymarkinMoscow.ItisunclearhowmuchmoneyTrump
has,butitisnotenoughtomatterinRussia.Ifhekeepsuphispose
asthetoughbillionaire,hewillbeflatteredbytheRussianmedia,
scornedbythosewhomatterinRussia,andtheneasilycrushedbymen
farricherandsmarterthanhe.
PutinhasbeenaccordinglycircumspectinhisreturnofTrump'swooing.
ForhimTrumpisasmallmanwhomightgaingreatpower.Thetrickisto
manipulatethesmallmanandtherebyneutralizethegreatpower.Inhis
annualpressconferencelastDecember,afterhearingsixmonthsof
praisefromTrump,PutinsaidthathewelcomedTrump'sideaofplacing
US-Russianrelationsonamoresolidbasis,andcharacterizedTrumpas
"flamboyant,talented,withoutadoubt."Itishardtomissthe
ambiguityof"flamboyant,"butTrumpchosetomissit.
ThenextdayTrumpseemedpleased.Perhapshavingbeenmisadvisedabout
whatPutinactuallysaid,Trumpsaidthat,"Whenpeoplecallyou
brilliantit'salwaysgood."Aftersuggestingthatkillingjournalists
wasnormal,heconcludedwarmlythat"I'vealwaysfeltfineaboutPutin,
Ithinkthat,youknow,he'sastrongleader,he'sapowerfulleader,
he'srepresentedhiscountry."Notlongafterthat,TrumpdefendedPutin
fromtheofficialBritishinquiryintotheassassinationofAlexander
Litvinenko.Trump'sreasoningwasthatPutin"saidhedidn'tdoit."In
MarchTrumpsaidthatPutinwasastrongerleaderthanthepresidentof
theUnitedStates.ForacrumbofpraisefromPutin,Trumphaspresented
criminalityasnormalandsoldouthisownheadofstate.
LetusimaginethefirstfewweeksofaTrumpadministration.Mostof
hisdomesticagendawillquicklyproveillegal,oratleastvery
complicatedtoimplement.Heisnotamanwhohasdisplayedmuch
patienceformanagement.Itseemsverylikelythathewouldquicklyturn
abroadforthatsurgeofapprovalthatheseemstofindsopleasurable.
Andtherewouldbenoeasierwaytogainsuchafeelingthancurrying
favorwithPutin.Itissomucheasiertoignoretraditionalalliesthan
tocultivatethem,andsomucheasiertoignoreaggressionthanto
maintainorder.ThelouchestylethatTrumpseemslikelytobringto
Americanforeignpolicyisallhewillneedtogarnerpraisefromthe
manheadmires.GivenwhatTrumphasdonethusfar,undernostressand
withlittleencouragement,itisterrifyingtocontemplatewhathewould
doasafrustratedAmericanpresidentlookingforlove.
EvenasPutincarefullycultivatesafutureclient,theRussian
population(aloneinthedevelopedworld)prefersTrumptoClinton,and
Russianelitesrevealtheirexcitementattheprospectofatame
America.Itisunusual,ofcourse,forRussianorotherpublicfigures
totakesidesinAmericanelections.Prudenceusuallyoverrides
preferenceeventhemostwillfulauthoritariansandmediafigures
usuallyhedgetheirbets,knowingthatendorsingalosingcandidatecan
bringeightyearsofbadluckwhileendorsingtheeventualwinnermay
bringverylittle.Inthisparticularelectioncycle,however,Russian
politiciansareinanunusualsituation.HillaryClintonhasbeenthe
targetofsuchcriticismfromRussiaanditscurrentpresidentthatit
isimpossibletocreatetheimpressionofevenhandedness.InDecember
2011,VladimirPutinpersonally(andabsurdly)blamedClinton,thenUS
secretaryofstate,forgivinga"signal"thatpromptedRussiansto
protestfakedparliamentaryelections.
Onceliberatedfromthenormalrulesofthegame,Russianpoliticians
havebeenabletogivevoicetowhatseemslikeheartfeltsympathyfor
Trump.VasilyLikhachev,aCommunistintheRussianparliament,
explicitlyexpressedhispreferenceforTrumpoverClinton.Dmitry
Kiselev,theRussiantalkshowstarbestknownintheWestforreminding
usthatRussiancanturntheUSinto"radioactiveash"andforadvising
thattheheartsofgaysbeburnedaftertheirdeaths,gushesthat"anew
starisrising-Trump."KonstantinRykov,amemberofPutin'sUnited
Russiapartyandaleadingmediamanager,opinesthatTrumpis"thevery
embodimentoftheAmericandream."AlekseiPushkov,thechairmanofthe
Russianparliament'sinternationalaffairscommittee,tweetsadmiringly
aboutTrumponaregularbasis.Mostrevealingly,hewrotethatTrump
"canleadtheWesternlocomotiverightofftherails."
TheexplicitendorsementofTrumpbyAleksandrDugin,theleading
RussianfascistideologueandaveryimportantmediapresenceinRussia,
isparticularlyalarming.ThepremiseofDugin's"Eurasian"movementis
thatRussiaandtheWestareartificiallyseparatedbyenlightenedideas
oftheruleoflawandindividualrights.OnceleadersoftheWest
understandthattheseareartificial(Jewish)implantations,theycan
joinRussiaintheembraceoffascism.Duginaccordinglypraisesthe
Americanpeople,callinguponthemtoshedtheir"oligarchic"elitesand
returntotheirtrue(fascist)values.IreadDugin'suseof
"oligarchic"tomean"Jewish"-asuspicionconfirmedbyDugin'sreaction
toanactualoligarchwhoenjoysthebackingofAmericanneo-Nazis:
"TrumpisthevoiceoftherealrightwinginAmerica,"hewrites."Vote
forTrump!"
TheRussianexpectationisthataTrumpvictorywouldberuinousfor
Americanpower,andthatsuchpowerasremainswillbedeployedto
supportRussianinterests.Trump'sfantasyfriendshipwithPutinisone
morereasontoexpectthataTrumpvictorywouldalsobedisastrousfor
Americanvaluesandinstitutions.Putincanbeexpected,ifthetwomen
actuallymeetaspresidents,toflatterTrump'svanityandurgehim
onwardtowardafullassaultontheConstitution.Russiaisina
downwardspiralofitsownwhatAmericansmustconsidernowisaweak
presidentialcandidatewhowantstofollowPutin'scharmwhereitleads,
whichmostlikelymeansstraighttothebottom.
#14
DeutscheWelle
April21,2016
HowNigeriangirlsareforcedintoprostitutioninRussia
ByEmmaBurrows
CriminalsappeartobetakingadvantageofRussia'sstudentvisasystem
toforcegirlsintoprostitution.DW'sEmmaBurrowshasbeen
investigatinghowNigerianscomeforuniversityanddisappearintothe
sextrade.
TwoyearsagoawomancametoBlessingOsakwe'shometowninthesouthof
NigeriaandtoldtheyoungwomantherewasworkforherinRussia.She
toldOsakweshewouldhaveajobinasupermarket,andthatitwould
taketheherjustfiveorsixmonthstoearnthemoneytoreimbursethe
costsofthevisaandthejourneytoRussia.Afterpayingbackthe
$40,000,Osakwecouldkeepallthemoneyshemade,thewomansaid.
Osakwesaidherparentsareverypoorandthattheideaofgoingto
Russiatohelpthemandtosavemoneyforhereducationappealedtoher.
Sheagreed.
Onlywhenshearrived,didshediscovereverythingthewomanhadsaid
wasalie.
Therewasnosupermarketjob.Instead,OsakwetoldDW,shewasforcedto
workasaprostitute.
ShewasdrivenaroundMoscowtohavesexwithmen.Onenight,shewas
takentoanapartmentbuildingwhereonemanwasapparentlywaitingfor
her.Whenshegotinside,shediscoveredtherewereeightmen.Shewas
forcedtosleepwithallofthem,shesaid.Whensherefusedtohavesex
withoutacondom,theytookbackthemoneytheyhadpaidandbeatand
molestedher,shesaid.
Thentheythrewherfromthefourthfloorofthebuilding.
Osakwebrokeherhipwhenshehittheground.Shespenttwo-dayson
life-supportinthehospitaluntilhertreatmentwasstoppedbecause,
shesaid,shecouldnotaffordtopay.Shenowcannotwalkproperlyand
isconfinedtoawheelchair.
Traffickedonstudentvisas
Osakwe'sstoryisnotuncommon,saidKennyKehinde,whoworkswith
severalMoscowNGOsfocusedonpreventinghumantrafficking.Around
2,000-3,000Nigeriangirls-manyfrompoor,remotevillages-are
broughttoRussiaeveryyearforsexwork,hesaid.
"Thisisinternationalmodern-dayslavery,wherethegirlsarebrought
herewiththehelpofsomeRussiangovernmentofficials,someNigerian
authoritiesandso-called'madams'[pimps]whoexploitthesegirlsfor
sexinRussia,"saidKehinde.
MostofthegirlsKehindedealtwithhadcometoRussiaonstudent
visas,hesaid.
Suchvisasarenoteasytoobtainasuniversitiesmustprovide
supportingmaterialfortheapplications.
UsmanGafai,headofmissionattheNigerianEmbassyinMoscow,saidhe,
too,wasawareofNigeriansbeingtraffickedforsextoRussia.
"Tenyearsago,itwasnotsuchahugeproblemasthis,"hetoldDW.
"Thoseinvolvedareaninternationalcartel.Onadailybasistheyare
growingandmakingmoneyoutofit."
TheRussiangovernmentneededto"carryoutproperscrutinyofvisa
applicantsbackinNigeria,"Gafaisaid."ThemajoritycometoRussiaon
astudentvisa,andIwanttoseemorescrutinyofthat."
Kehindesaidilliterateteenagerswerebeingtrafficked.
"Howcanyoubringagirlof14-or15-yearoldtostudyina
university,whenshecannotevenreadandwrite?"heasked.
Migrationviolations
DWwasabletoexaminepassportsandmigrationdocumentsbelongingto
sixNigeriangirls,includingBlessingOsakwe,thatshowedtheyhad
arrivedinRussiaonstudentvisas.
TheSmolnyInstituteoftheRussianAcademyofEducationinSaint
PetersburgtoldDWithadissuedvisasupportdocumentsin2014for
OsakwetostudyaRussian-languagecourseinpreparationforentering
university.However,inanemailedstatementtoDW,theuniversity's
rector,GaidarImanov,saidsheneverarrivedattheinstitute,andthe
universityhadnoknowledgeofwhethershehadenteredthecountry.
Similarly,theBalticHumanitarianInstitute,anotherSt.Petersburg
university,confirmedviaemailithadissueddocumentstoawould-be
studentfromNigeriawhohadnevermadecontacttobeginhercoursein
Russia.
Bothuniversitiesrejectedthenotionthattheirstaffmayhavebeen
paidtoprovidedocumentstostudentswhowerenotgenuineortotraffic
girlstoRussiaforsex,callingtheallegation"fiction"and
"absolutelybaseless."
TheRussianMinistryforForeignAffairs,whoseembassiesissuevisas,
toldDWinawrittenstatementthatallstudentsinNigeriaundergoan
interview"withoutfail."Italsosaidborderofficialsdonotallow
entryintothecountrywithoutconfirmationfromtheuniversitywhere
theyareduetostudy.Theministrysaidit"wantedtoemphasize"that
individualsare"personallyresponsibleforadheringtomigration
legislation."
Russia'sFederalMigrationServicetoldDWthatit"regularlychecks"
formigrationviolationsandthatimmigrationlawhadbeenbrokenin
morethan325,000casesinthefirsttwomonthsof2016.Despiteseveral
requests,theagencydidnotexplainhowBlessingOsakwe-andgirls
likeher-couldhaveenteredRussiaonstudentvisasandapparently
disappearedfromauthorities'sightforyearsintothesextrade.
Tacklingtrafficking
Despitelegislationmeanttopreventhumantrafficking,Russiahasnot
shownafullcommitmenttotacklingtheproblem,saidAndrewBograndof
theNGODemocracyInternational.
"Prosecution,althoughexistent,isverylimited,"hesaid."More
alarming,accordingtoRussia'sfewwomen'srightsNGOs,isthealmost
completelackofshelterspaceforwomenwhoarevictimsofsex
traffickingordomesticviolence.
"Corruptionandtraffickingareinextricablylinked-andRussiafares
poorlyinmostcorruptionindexes,"hecontinued."Aslongasthestate
continuestoturnablindeyetotheproblemofcorruption,trafficking
willflourish."
'Stayhome'
BlessingOsakwerecentlyreturnedtoNigeriaandhopestoresumeher
studies.ButhertimeinRussiahaschangedherlifeforever.Itremains
unclearwhethershewillbeabletowalkproperlyagain.
ShehasamessageforotherNigeriangirlswhoareofferedjobsabroad:
"Staybackhome,learntowork.Eventhoughthepayissmall,itismuch
betterthancomingheretosufferorloseyourlife."
#15
TheGuardian(UK)
April20,2016
Russia's'coldturkey'approachhighlightsglobaldivideoverdrug
treatmentatUN
Russianrepresentativesuggestsmethadoneandheroinarethe'same
narcoticdrug'asoutsideexpertscondemncountry'stakeontreatment:
'They'retheworldleaderindenyingthescience'
ByJessicaGlenzainNewYork
JessicaGlenzaisareporterattheGuardianUS
AsinternationalleadersdebatedglobaldruglawattheUnitedNations,
abizarrepanelonherointreatmentshowedjusthowdividedcountries
areoverhowtotreataddicts.
Thepanel,sponsoredbytheRussianFederation,beganwithan
internationalgroupofscientistsanddiplomatsexplainingthe
importanceofevidence-baseddrugtreatment,beforeaRussiandoctor
veeredintoaddictionsciencedenialism.
"Weprefertotreatpeopleinadrug-freesetting,"DrOxanaGuseva,a
medicalrepresentativeoftheRussianFederation,toldtheGuardian
afterward,"becausemethadoneisthesamenarcoticdrugasheroin."
InRussia,heroinaddictsaregiven"coldturkey"detoxification
treatmentusingthemedicationNaltrexone,whichblocksopioidreceptors
inthebrain.Typically,thismedicationisusedtostopoverdoses.
Then,Gusevasaid,Russianaddictsaregivensocialtherapyand
educationasasubstituteforconventionalopioidreplacementtherapies,
suchasmethadoneclinics,whicharecommonintheUnitedStates.
Whilepartofthedoctor'sstatementistrue-methadoneandheroinare
bothnarcoticpaintreatments-addictiontreatmentthatusesmethadone
inplaceofotheropioidsisdeliveredtothebodyinamuchdifferentway.
First,methadoneclinicsprovideoraldoses,meaningthatthebody
processesthedrugmoreslowlythanintravenousheroin.Thatremovesone
ofthemostaddictivecharacteristicsofheroin-therush.Methadone
alsostaysinthebodyforalongerperiodoftime.Heroinandopioid
painkillerssuchasOxycontinlasthours,butmethadonecanhaveeffects
fordays.
Treatmentthatusesdrugssuchasmethadone,called"replacement
therapies",preventformeraddictsfromgoingthroughpainful
withdrawals.Buttheyalsoaddressadisturbingaspectofaddiction-
howitchangesthebrain'sphysiologylong-termtoaccommodateneural
pathwaysforcravingandcompulsivedrug-seeking.
America'stopaddictionexpert,DrNoraVolkow,directoroftheNational
InstitutesofHealthonDrugAbuse,disputedtheRussiandoctor's
assertions.
"Thedataisshowingafterchronictreatment,someofthesepatients
[addictedtoopiates]areabletoslowlytaperoffthismedication,"
Volkow,referringtotherapiessuchasmethadone.However,shesaid,
"therealityisthatinsomeinstanceswejustcannotachieve[full
sobriety]-andit'snotanydifferentthansomeonewhohasdiabetes.
"Isitthatwearesubstitutingandmaking[diabetics]dependenton
insulin?"sheaskedrhetorically."Perhapswecouldsaythat,butwe
couldalsosayit'sawayforthemtohaveaperfectlynormallife."
ThepanelwaspartofthefirstUNsummitondruglawin18years,known
asUngass,ortheUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblySpecialSession.
Thethree-daysummitwasmeanttoaddressthe"globaldrugproblem"and
includedebateonhowinternationalauthoritiesshouldmovetreaties
forwardtoaddressdrugabuseasapublichealthissue.However,most
debateontheagreementadoptedtookplaceinViennainMarch,withouta
majorityofmemberstates,andthe"outcomedocument",astheagreement
isknown,wasadoptedimmediatelyafterthesessionopened.
Thedocument'simmediateadoptionlaidbarejusthowdividedthe
internationalcommunityisontheissueofdrugabuse.Indonesiacalled
thedeathpenaltyan"importantcomponent"ofthecountry'sdrugcontrol
policy,whileliberalstatessuchasUruguay,ColombiaandNorway
expresseddismaythattheUNfailedtocondemnsuchexecutions.
"Norwayintendstobeaclearvoiceforamoreprogressiveapproach,"
thenation'sdelegatetoldtheGeneralAssemblyonTuesday.
"It'stooironicforRussiatobethesponsoroftheevent,"saidDaniel
Wolfe,directoroftheInternationalHarmReductionProgramfortheOpen
SocietyFoundations."They'retheworldleaderindenyingthescience."
RussiandrugtreatmentmethodswererecentlytestedinCrimea,afterthe
countryannexedtheformerUkrainianregion.
Around800formerheroinaddictstherewerecutofffromreplacement
therapy,roughly100ofwhomhavedied,accordingtoadvocacygroupsand
theUN'sspecialenvoyMichelKazatchkine.
ManyhaveblamedRussia'sbanontreatmentsuchasmethadoneandlackof
cleansyringeprogramsforanuptickinnewHIVinfectionsevenas
infectionratesinotherareasofEuropefall.
"It'sreallystupid,"saidPavloSkala,associatedirectorforthe
AllianceforPublicHealth,aKiev-basedorganization,whoattendedthe
eventonWednesday."It'snotscientific,as[with]everythingrelated
totreatmentinRussia."
#16
RFE/RL
April17,2016
BarredFromHundredsOfOccupationsInRussia,AFewWomenFightBack
byTomBalmforth
MOSCOW--SvetlanaMedvedevacannotrisetothetopofherchosen
professionforaverysimplereason--sheisawoman.
Theambitionofthe30-year-oldmotheroftwoistoearnamuchbetter
wageasthecaptainofaboatontheVolgaRiver,whichrunsthroughher
hometownofSamara.Andwiththedegreesheearnedin2005fromSamara
RiverCollege,sheshouldbewellonherway--oralreadythere.
ButwiththesysteminplaceontheVolga,theoccupationofcaptain
requireshertohavepriorexperienceasashipmechanic.Andthatjob
isoneofhundredsthatareopentomenonlyinRussia,accordingtothe
law.
ARussiangovernmentresolutionpassedin2000prohibitswomenfrom38
industriesandover450jobsitdeemstobe"dangerous"or"arduous."
AdoptedduringPresidentVladimirPutin'sfirstyearinoffice,itwas
thelatestincarnationofSoviet-eraregulationsthatsoughttokeep
womeninwhattheCommunistPartyoncecalledtheir"traditional"role
ofbearingchildrenforthegreatergoodofsociety.
Tothisday,thebancoversaswatheofoccupationsincludingminer,
carpenter,firefighter,traindriver,blacksmith,diver,anddriverof
buseswithmorethan14seats.
ThatmakesRussia"thecountrywiththemostjob-relatedbarriers,"
accordingtoaSeptember2015WorldBankreportongenderequality.
OnMarch15,theUnitedNationscalledonRussiatoamendits
legislationandshortenthelistofbannedoccupations.Italsoformally
labeledMedvedevaavictimof"gender-baseddiscrimination"--a
hard-wontriumphinalegalbattleshebeganin2012,seekingtobypass
theban.
Thatyear,Medvedevawasactuallyhiredforamechanic'sjob,withsome
responsibilitiesattheboat'shelm,byaprivatecompanyinSamara.But
whenherworkwasduetostart,shewasturnedawaybecauseofthe
legislation.
"Everythingwassigned,andIwasmeanttostartworkonMonday,"she
says."Icame,hadalookattheengineandhowitworks.Iwasmeantto
startintwodays--andthentherewasthisresolutionbanningmefrom
work."
Medvedevabegancampaigningfordispensationtobypasstheban,firing
offletterstotheKremlin,LaborMinistry,andHealthMinistry.They
allreferredherbacktotheLaborCode,whichinturncitesjobslisted
asdangerousinthegovernmentresolution.
Shewenttocourttoseekanordertoforcethecompanytoensuresafe
workingconditionsinthejob,butherappealwasrejected.Shesaysthe
jobisconsidereddangerousbecauseoftheloudnoiseoftheengine,
whichcanbecanceledoutbywearingearplugs.
"Idon'tthinkthereshouldbeprofessionsthatarebannedforwomen,"
Medvedevasays."Inanycase,womenaren'tgoingenmassetogototake
upheavywork,andinthoseprofessionswhereitreallyisheavy,the
jobsshouldsimplybeimproved.Theyshouldbeimproved,notbanned."
Medvedevasaysshehadpracticallygivenupwhenshecameacrossthe
RussianhumanrightsorganizationMemorial,whichofferedtohelppress
hercaseinternationally.ShewenttotheUnitedNations,whose
CommitteefortheEliminationofDiscriminationAgainstWomenpronounced
heravictimofdiscriminationandcalledonRussiatoamenditsLabor
Codeandreducethenumberofjobsthatareclosedtowomenunderthe
governmentresolution.
"Noevidencehasbeenprovidedtothecommitteethattheinclusionof
thepositionofhelmperson-motoristinthelistofprohibitedjobsis
basedonanyscientificevidencethatitmaybeharmfultowomen's
reproductivehealth,"theUNcommittee'sexpertssaidintheMarch15
statement.
SovietLaw
Thelegislationharksbacktothecommunistera,andhasbeenmodified
slightlywiththepassageoftime.Itslatestincarnationwaspassedas
agovernmentresolutionin2000thatliststhebannedprofessions.The
LaborCodeadditionallysaysthatwomenareprohibitedfromworking
undergroundexceptiftheyaredoingnonphysicaltaskssuchascleaning.
Theyarealsonotallowedtodojobsinvolvingliftingormovingheavy
items.
"ThissystemisveryoldandgoesbacktoSoviettimes,"saysYelena
Gerasimova,directoroftheMoscow-basedCenterforSocialandLabor
Rights."Therestrictionshavechangedovertheyears--some
occupationshavebeenremoved,othersincluded.Ithasn'talwaysbeenin
thisform.Atvarioustimesitwasaddedto,butthegeneralapproach
wasalwaysthesame."
Ontheonehand,Sovietideologyexplicitlyespousedequalitybetween
menandwomen--andonthefaceofitdidsodemonstratively.Soviet
cosmonautValentinaTereshkovabecamethefirstwomaninspacein1963,
20yearsbeforeSallyRidebecamethefirstAmericanwomantomakethetrip.
Ontheground,itwasadifferentstory.DuringtheSovietUnion's
breakneckindustrializationandthereconstructionafterthedevastation
ofWorldWarII,whichleftthecountrywithadeficitofmen,women
wereactivelypushedintothelaborforce--butwerelargelykeptout
ofhigh-skilledjobs.
TheSovietLaborCodeof1922explicitlybannedwomenfrom"dangerous"
jobs.In1981,theyeartherulingCommunistPartycalledforthe
"reinforcementofthetraditionalmaternalrole,"thenumberofjobs
shuttowomenhit460.
'LadyMetro'
Perhapsthemostwell-knownbanwastheprohibitionintroducedinthe
1980sonwomendrivingtrains,includinginthemetro,orsubway.Until
then,femaledrivershadbeencommonplace-alegacyofthedearthof
menfollowingWorldWarII.Womenwerealsopreventedfromworkingas
trainassistantsinthefrontcar.
Womenweregraduallyphasedoutofthejob--withoneexception.Until
herreportedretirement,NatalyaKorniyenkowasknownastheonlyfemale
metrodriverinMoscow,andthetabloidMoskovskyKomsomoletsdubbedher
"LadyMetro"in2007.
TheMoscowMetropressservicesaidin2009thatKorniyenkowasableto
continueworkingbecausethebanonhiringwomenasmetrodriversdid
notsaywhattodowiththosealreadyworking,andshepredatedtheban.
Othershavesincetriedtogainemploymentinthedriver'sboothof
subwaytrains--buttonoavail.In2009,AnnaKlevets,thena
22-year-oldlawstudent,pressedadiscriminationsuitafterbeing
turneddownforajobasanassistantmetrooperatorinSt.Petersburg
onthegroundsofhergender.Shearguedthatitwasaviolationof
Russia'sconstitutionalguaranteeofequalrightsformenandwomen.The
SupremeCourtrejectedherappealinMay2009.
Lastyear,anonlinepetitionwasairedbyaresidentoftheSiberian
cityofNovokuznetskcallingfortherepealoftheblanketban,saying
itwasoutdatedprimarilyforeconomicreasons.
Theauthorofthepetitionarguedthattherestrictionsweretolerable
intheSovietUnionbecausewomenwereabletofindotherdecentworkin
asysteminwhicheverycitizenwasvirtuallyguaranteedajob,butthat
withunemploymentontheriseandrealincomesfalling,itisunfairin
today'sRussia.
"Nowthesituationhaschanged,"saysthepetition,whichhasgarnered
just650signatures."Thejobsthatwomenarebarredfromcouldbethe
bestoronlywayforthemtoearnmoneytolive."http://tinyurl.com/jctm39v
GerasimovasaysthatRussiahassixmonthstorespondtotheUN'scall
tochangethelegislation.Shesaidthat"severalyearsago"therehad
beensignsthattheLaborMinistrywasmakingmovestorepealthe
legislation,butthattherehasbeennoovertindicationofthatrecently.
TherestrictionsseemtofitinwiththepushesbyPutinandtheRussian
OrthodoxChurchtotoutwhattheycalltraditionalRussianvalues.
Forherpart,Medvedevaseesnogroundswellofsupportforachange.
Thelegislation"isaprobleminmycase,"shesays."Ifthiswasa
particularlybigproblem,someonewouldhaveraiseditbeforemeasthe
resolutionhasbeeninforcefor16yearssince2000.I'mtheonewitha
concreteproblemothersapparentlydon'thaveit."
#17
Time.com
April20,2016
WhyaWininaDutchCourtIsMakingVladimirPutinSoHappy
AcourtintheHaguehasquasheda$50billionjudgmentagainstthe
Russianstate.ButPresidentPutin'senemiesfromtheYukosaffair
aren'tgivingupanytimesoon
BySimonShuster
Inthesummerof2014,aninternationalcourtofarbitrationbasedin
theDutchcityoftheHagueissuedanastoundingruling.Thecourt
orderedthegovernmentofRussiatopay$50billionindamagestoformer
shareholdersoftheYukosoilcompany,whichtheRussianstatehad
forcedintobankruptcy,choppedintopiecesandsoldofftostate-run
firmsinthemid-2000s.Thatlegalassaulthadamountedto
expropriation,accordingtothecourt'sdecisionatthetime,byfarthe
biggestthecourtofarbitrationhadeverhandeddown,andamajorblow
toMoscow.
RussiaappealedtotheDistrictCourtintheHague-butitwasclearly
worriedabouttheoutcome.Topleaditscase,theKremlinhiredsomeof
thebestlawyersintheworld.ItspolicehadraidedhomesinMoscow
lookingforusefulevidence.Thestakeswerehigh.Ifthecourthad
ruledagainsttheKremlin,bailiffswouldbeabletocontinueseizing
Russianstateproperty,fromrealestateandbankaccountstoworksof
art,aspartofaglobalhunttocollectthedamages.
"Ourargumentsarewatertight,"AndreiKondakov,thecoordinatorofthe
legalteamrepresentingRussia,toldTIMEacoupleofdaysbeforethe
ruling."Butwecouldlose."
Instead,thecourtonWednesdayhandedRussiaaremarkablewin.It
overturnedtheoriginalrulingonatechnicality,thusgrantingRussia's
appeal."Wedon'thavetopayasinglepennytothisbunchofguys,"
Kondakovtoldreportersaftertheruling.Well,atleastnotuntilthe
Yukosshareholdersfileanothersetofappeals,asthey'vealready
promisedtodo.
"Thecourthasmisappliedthelaw,"TimOsborne,theheadoftheirlegal
team,saidatapressconferenceonWednesday.Butevenasthefight
overtheYukosfortunecontinuesinthecourts,Russiacanclaima
powerfulvictory,onethatcouldhelpthestatewinsimilarchallenges
toitswealth-anditsreputation-aroundtheworld.
BeforeWednesday'sruling,theKremlinhadbeenpreparingforamuch
moredifficultfight.Inresponsetothe$50billionjudgmentin2014,
itrefusedtopaythedamagestoYukosshareholders,whothenretaliated
bytryingtoseizeRussianstateassetsaroundtheworld.Lastsummer,
courtsinFranceandBelgiumagreedtofreezedozensofRussianbank
accountsandpropertiesasameansofcollectingthedebt.Moscowwas
furious.
Anythingbelongingtothestate,withtheexceptionofembassiesand
otherdiplomaticproperty,waspotentiallysubjecttoseizureonforeign
soil.SoRussiahadtothinktwiceaboutsendingplanestoforeignair
shows,forinstance,orlendingarttoforeignmuseums.Russiafought
back-aftertheassetfreezesinFranceandBelgium,Moscowthreatened
toretaliateagainstanycountrythattriedtoenforcethedebttoYukos
shareholders.InNovember,Putinevensignedanewlawthatwouldallow
hisgovernmenttocarryouttit-for-tatconfiscationsofforeignassets
onRussiansoil.
ButforPutin,thissagaisaboutmuchmorethanmoney.TheYukosaffair
isapersonalgrudge,onethatbegansoonafterhecametopowerin
2000.InoneofhisfirstactsasPresident,hesetouttocheckthe
powerofthebillionaireclassofplutocratsthathadeffectivelybought
upcontrolofthecountry'seconomyduringtheprivatizationwaveinthe
1990s.Putin'sarrivalmeanttherulesofbusinesswouldchange.During
aseriesofmeetings,hetoldtheoligarchsthattheycouldkeeptheoil
fields,minesandfactoriestheyhadpurchasedfromthestateonthe
cheapbeforehecametopower.ButtheyhadtorecognizePutin's
authorityasstandingwellabovetheirown.
"Hewasablackbox,nooneknewwhatwasinside,"recallsSergei
Pugachev,theoligarchwhohelpedarrangethefirstmeetingwithPutin.
Thebettertogethismessageacross,Putindecidedtoholdthatmeeting
attheformerdachaoftheSovietdictatorJosefStalin.Mostofthem
gotthemessage,Pugachev,whonowlivesinexileinLondon,toldTIME
in2014."'HetookustoStalin'sdacha,'"heremembersoneoftheother
guestssayingthatday."'It'senoughthatheletusleave.'"
Atthetime,thewealthiestamongtheoligarchswasMikhail
Khodorkovsky,whowasworthabout$15billion.Withthehelpofhis
connectionsintheyouthleagueoftheSovietCommunistParty,hehad
startedinbusinessearly,sellingpersonalcomputersbeforemostSoviet
citizenshadeverheardofthem.Aspost-SovietRussiatransitionedto
capitalismintheearly1990s,heamassedenoughmoneytostartbuying
upthechoicestoilfieldsthatthenearlybankruptRussianstatecould
offer.TheseformedthebasisoftheYukosoilempire-andsecuredhis
positionasthemostpowerfultycooninthecountrybythetimePutin
arrivedintheKremlin.
WhenTIMEinterviewedhimin2014,Khodorkovskyalsorecalledthatfirst
meetingwithPutin,thoughnotquitethesamewaythatPugachevdoes.
Foronething,Khodorkovskywasnotintimidated."Maybenow[Putin]
talksinthelanguageofultimatums.Butatthetimeitwasallvery
polite,"hetoldme."Still,weunderstoodthatweweredealingwiththe
headofthecountry,whohasalotmoreauthority[inRussia]thanthe
AmericanPresident.Andwe,thebigbusinessmen,mayhavesomepowers.
Butcomparedtothoseoftheheadofstate,theyarepracticallyzero."
Still,theheadofYukosdidnotbehaveasmodestly-orascautiously-
astheothers.IntheyearsthatfollowedPutin'sascenttopower,
Khodorkovskybegannegotiatingdealswithforeigncompanies,including
U.S.oilconcerns,thatwouldhavethreatenedthestate'seffective
monopolyontheexportofoil-byfarthemostvaluableofRussia's
naturalresources.Healsobeganfundingoppositionpartiesand
discussinganeventualrunforthepresidency.Putindidnottakekindly
tosuchambitions.
Theconflictbetweenthemcametoaheadin2003,whenRussiancommandos
arrestedKhodorkovskyonthetarmacofaSiberianairportandtookhim
tojailtofacechargesoffraud,whichhedenied.Hisoilcompanywas
hitwithsomanytaxclaimsthatitwasforcedtoenterbankruptcy.Over
thenextfewyears,theauthoritiessoldoffYukos'mostvaluableassets
andoilfieldstostate-controlledfirmsrunbyPutin'scloseassociates.
ThequestionnowatthecenterofthelawsuitsintheHagueiswhether
thatassaultonYukoswaslegal.Inawardingdamagesof$50billiontwo
yearsago,thetribunalruledthattheactionsoftheRussianstatewere
"equivalenttoexpropriation"intheYukoscase.Kondakov,thelawyer
representingtheRussianstate,deniesthatKhodorkovskyandhisfirm
were"singledoutandtargeted"bytheauthorities.
Inthe1990s,manyoftheoligarchsbecamevastlyrichthroughthe
purchaseofstateassets,Kondakovargues."Everyonegotawaywiththose
auctions,butthenyouweregivenachance,"hesaysbyphonefrom
Moscow,referringtotheopportunityPutingavetheoligarchstostart
payingtheirtaxesandfallingintoline."Soit'snotaboutothers
gettingaway.It'sabouthowyoubehaveafteryou'regivena
once-in-a-lifetime,uniquechancetoacquireaverypriceyassetfora
verynegligibleamountofmoney."
ButwhatevermoneyKhodorkovskymayhavesavedinthepurchaseofhis
oilwells,hepaidforitdearlyinprison.Atonepointin2006,his
cellmateinaSiberianpenalcolonytriedtostabhimintheeyewhile
hewassleeping.Hewasoftenheldinsolitaryconfinementandwas
forcedtoworksewinguniformsforthepolice.Onlyafter10yearsof
incarceration,whenKhodorkovsky'smotherwasgravelyill,Putinagreed
togranthimapardon-aslongashewentintoexile.
ItdidnottakelongforthePresidenttoregretthatunusualactof
clemency.WithinayearofhisreleaseinDecember2013,Khodorkovsky
beganopenlycallingforarevolutionagainstPutin'srule.Usingthe
moneyhehadstashedinforeignbanksbeforehisarrest,healsobegan
tosupporttheoppositionmovementinRussiaandbankrollcandidatesin
Russianelections.Withtheir$50billionjudgmentfromtheHague,his
formerpartnersintheoilbusinessbeganchasingRussianassetsaround
theworld."Wearenothidingfromanyone,"Kondakovinsistedatthe
time."Wearenotrunningfromanyregularoperationofthestate."
ButthestatedidstepupitshuntforevidenceagainstKhodorkovskyin
Russia.AfewdaysbeforeChristmas,policeraidedtheofficesofhis
activistgroupinMoscow,aswellasthehomesofhisspokeswoman,
severalofhisemployeesandtheirrelatives.Investigatorssaidthe
raidswerelinkedtoanothercaseof"illegalprivatization"ofassets
inthe1990s,thistimeinvolvingafertilizerandminingcompany.
Insomecases,though,suchevidencecanbeusefulindefendingRussia
againsttheYukosshareholders,saysKondakov."Thosethingsaredonein
parallel,"hesayswhenaskedabouttheapartmentsraidedinDecember.
Hewasnotawareofanyusefulmaterialgatheredbypoliceinthose
particularsearches.Butinfightingtheenforcementofthejudgmentin
theHague,Russiansecurityserviceshaveopenedtheirtrovesof
documentsonYukostothegovernment'slawyers-includingthe
high-pricedAmericanfirmWhite&Case."Wearethankfultoboththe
officeoftheprocuratorgeneralandtheRussianInvestigativeCommittee
foropeningtheirfiles,providingaccessforourlawyers,"Kondakov
tellsTIME.
Thosefilesmayyetcomeinhandy.AfterWednesday'srulinginthe
Hague,theYukosshareholderspledgedtoappealallthewayuptothe
DutchSupremeCourt,whichmayyetdecidetoupholdthe$50billionin
damages.TheirracetograbRussianstateassetswouldthenbebackon.
Khodorkovskywillbewatchingfromthesidelines.Soonafterhisarrest
in2003,hetransferredhisstakeintheYukosoilempiretohis
partners.Sohedoesn'thavemuchtogain,atleastfinancially,from
thelitigationintheHague."Evenwithoutme,noonewillgivethemany
peaceonthisissue,"hetoldmewithasmilesoonafterhisrelease.
Forhispart,heplanstocontinuehiscrusadeagainstPutinforaslong
asittakestounseathim."Myfriendswillcontinuetheirresistance,"
hewroteonTwitterafterWednesday'sruling,referringtotheYukos
shareholders."I'llkeepgoingforregimechangebyothermeans."
#18
www.foreignaffairs.com
April19,2016
IncorruptiblePutin
WhythePanamaAllegationsWon'tStick
ByGregoryFeifer
GREGORYFEIFERistheauthorofRussians:ThePeopleBehindthePower.
[Completetextherebehind
paywall:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-04-19/incorruptible-putin
ThebiggestsurpriseabouttheRussianreactiontothePanamaPapers
leakscameintheformofaposterthatdepictedRussianPresident
VladimirPutinasthedrug-addledprotagonistplayedbyJohnnyDeppin
themovieversionofHunterS.Thompson'sFearandLoathinginLas
Vegas-completewithPanamahat,aviatorsunglasses,andcigarette
holder.AdorningacentralMoscowbusstopforseveralhoursbeforethe
authoritieshaditremoved,theposterread,"WhatPanama?"
Therarepublicdisplayofdefiancemainlyservedtodrawattentionto
theapathyofthegeneralpublic-itcomesasnosurpriseinacountry
wherestatepropagandafuelswidespreadsuspicionthatmostforeign
developmentsareplotsagainstMotherRussia.EvenasWesternfiction,
however,revelationsfromtheleakeddocumentswouldstraincredulity
aboveall,informationrevealedthatthehandfulofindividualsfrom
Putin'sinnercirclewhomovedatleast$2billionthroughCaribbean
offshorecompaniesincludedSergeiRoldugin,anobscurecellistfromSt.
PetersburgwhoisthegodfatherofoneofPutin'sdaughters.
Thepresident'sresponsewasmoreincrediblestill.Dismissingthe
accusationsagainstRolduginaspartofaU.S.plottoundermineRussian
unitybyimpugningahumblemusician,hesaidhisoldfriendhadonly
depositedcashthathehadhonestlyearnedonthesideandintendedto
usetobuyinstrumentstodonatetocharity....
#19
KennanInstitute
April19,2016
HardWorkvs.Magic
ByMaximTrudolyubov
SeniorFellow,KennanInstitute.Editor-at-Large,VedomostiDaily
Russianofficialsstillreferto"conditionsfordoingbusiness"or
"qualityofgovernance"whendiscussingthecountry'seconomic
performance.Butthelackofgravitasintheseconversationsis
palpable.Russia'sofficialeconomicpolicymakerscommandanexcellent
understandingofthecountry'seconomicproblems,buttheylackthe
powertoadministertreatmentbasedontheirowndiagnosis.
Therealpolicymakers,thoseintheKremlin,consistentlyhavetheupper
handandareabletoturntheirthinkingintopolicies.Theproblemwith
thisisnotthefactthatthepresidentandhisinnercirclearemore
powerfulthantheministersoffinanceoreconomics.Technocrats
everywherearelessimperiousthanpoliticalheavyweights.Theproblem
isthattheeconomistsandtheKremlinplayersliveintwodifferentworlds.
Theheavyweights'andtechnocrats'understandingsofthereasonsbehind
eventsaresoprofoundlydifferentthatthepoliciesproposedbyeach
areincompatible.Thesedifferencesofopiniongobeyondtheusual
policydisagreementsandstrikeattheheartofthegoalsofpolicymaking.
Technocratsseereasonsfordomesticfailuresoriginatingindomestic
issuesandseektofindinternalcuresfortheeconomy'sailments.They
liveintheworldofglobaleconomicprocessesandwouldliketoseea
competitiveanddevelopedRussia.Heavyweightsstresstheimportanceof
externalfactorsandseemtobelievethatoncethedesignsofforeign
evildoersarerevealedandrebuffed,theeconomywillfixitself.They
operateunderawarmentalityandwouldliketostayinpoweratallcosts.
Whereaseconomictechnocratsspeakoftheinvestmentclimateandtaxes,
theKremlinpolicymakersspeakofinternationaldealsthatwouldpush
oilpricesbacktotheirformerhighs.Whereastechnocratsaretryingto
promotebusiness-friendlypoliciesandinternationalintegration,
heavyweightsseeeveryeconomicproblemasamanifestationoftheUnited
States'"hybridwar"againstRussiaandseekretaliation.
RussianFinanceMinisterAntonSiluanoveffectivelyconfirmedthiswhen
hespokeinfrontofallthetopbrassofRussia'seconomicpolicymaking
apparatusatarecentconference.Askedtonamethemostimportant
growthfactors,hesaiditwasoil,althoughitshouldnothavebeen.
"ThetopgrowthfactorinRussiaisoil:$20abarreladd0.8to1
percentagepointsofeconomicgrowth.Butdoweneedthiskindof
volatile,jerkygrowth?"Siluanovaskedhimself."Theconsequencesof
growthlikethisarethestrengtheningoftherubleandthelossof
competitiveness.Weneedaninvestment-basedgrowth...afewsectorsof
theeconomyshowedsomeprofitincreaseslastyearduetoexchangerate
differences.Butitallwentintodividends,notintocapitalinvestment
because,withthesehighlevelsofdeficit,economicagentswerenot
sureofpolicydirection.Theywerenotsureifthegovernmentwould
keepthecurrenttaxregimeinplaceorhiketaxes."
Macroeconomicpoliciesalonewon'tbeabletoreturntheeconomyto
growthbecauseofthelackofacompetitiveinvestmentclimateand
strongstateinvolvementinbusinessactivities,PyotrAven,theheadof
AlfaBank,Russia'slargestindependentlender,saidinarecentinterview.
Whilethesekindsofpoliciesrequireyearsofpoliticalhardwork,the
Kremlin'sfavoritepoliciescanbedecidedandputintoeffectquickly
andeasily."Russiaandsomeothercountrieshavebeenlivingina
situationoftheso-calledhybridwarunleashedbytheUnitedStates...
Internationallawisfrequentlyusedasaninstrumentofhybridwarfare
againstRussia,"AlexanderBastrykin,headoftheRussianInvestigative
Committee,wroteinapiecepublishedonMonday.Bastrykinwentonto
blameallRussia'seconomictrouble,includingthefallingrubleand
dwindlingincomes,onAmericanmischief.Eventhegrowingfiscalburden
thataffectsRussiandomesticcompanies,Bastrykinwrites,istheresult
ofAmericanpressure.Yes,sanctionsareinplace,butreducing
everythingtoaneffectofexternalpressureistantamounttomagical
thinking.
IfeverythingthatgoeswrongisaresultofAmerica's"hybrid"attack,
aretaliatoryattackisinorder.Isitgoingtobeanotherinvasionor
somedomesticcrackdown?Theanswerissupposedtoremainunknownuntil
everyonelearnsitfromthemorningnews.That'showagovernmentacts
whenitisatwar.Buttheveryunpredictabilityofthishighlyreactive
"wartime"policymakingisdeadlytomostkindsofbusiness.Sothe
economicpolicymakersarenottheproblem."Theproblemisthat
investors-bothforeignandRussian-don'treallytrustthemaninthe
bigchairnottodrivetheeconomydeliberatelyoffacliffjusttostay
inpower,"summarizesSamuelGreene,directorofRussiaInstituteat
King'sCollege,London.
Russiacanfollowtwopathstotryandclimboutoftheeconomicpitit
currentlyfindsitselfin.Itcanchampionprivateentrepreneurshipand
privateinvestmentandworktomakeitsbusinessclimatemore
competitive.Oritcantrustinitspoliticalwitchcraftandhopethat
oilpriceswillsomehowgrowbacktobeneficiallevels.Thislatterpath
hasfailedspectacularly.Russianofficialswereputtingalotofhope
intoapossibledealtofreezeoiloutput.ButasummitinDohaamong
theworld'slargestoilproducingcountriesendedwithoutanagreement
onSundayafterSaudiArabiainsistedthatIran,afierceregional
rival,hadtobepartofanyagreement.
RussiacouldfollowtheadviceofthelikesofBastrykinandintroduce
furtherrestrictivelegislation,bancertaintypesofcontent,and
censordomesticInternet.AllthesethingswillsomehowmakeRussia
betteroff,Bastrykinbelieves.GivenhisbackgroundasonetimeYoung
CommunistLeagueSecretaryofthecityofLeningrad,thiskindof
ideologicalapproachisunderstandable.Itisjustpuzzlingthatthese
attitudesandbeliefsstillconsistentlybeatoutprofessionaleconomic
policymakinginRussia.
#20
www.foreigpolicy.com
April21,2016
SitRep:Exclusive:PentagonSaysRussiaCanFightinUkraineandSyria
AnotherTwoYears
BYPAULMCLEARYandADAMRAWNSLEY
Stillcold.IthasbeentwoyearssinceNATOandRussiasatatthesame
tabletotalksecurityissues,andthetimeoffhasn'tdonemuchforthe
relationship.AmeetinginBrusselsWednesdaydesignedtobreaktheice
onissueslikeUkraine,Syria,andtensionsintheBalticsdidn'tget
veryfarbeforeallsidesagreedtheydon'tseeeye-to-eyeonmuch.
"Duringthemeetingitwasreconfirmedwedisagree,bothwhenitcomes
tothefacts,thenarrativesandtheresponsibilitiesforthecrisisin
andaroundUkraine,"NATOSecretary-GeneralJensStoltenbergsaidafter
thesitdown.
TheNATO-RussiaCouncilwasestablishedin2002tokeepupamonthly
dialoguebetweenMoscowandtheEuropeandefenseorganization,butties
werebrokenoffinJune2014aftertheinvasionofUkraine.
ThewarinUkraine'seastrageson,however,withoneseniorDefense
officialtellingSitRepthatthereare7,000Russiantroopsstillinside
Ukraine,advisingpro-Moscowrebelsandengaginginthefightingthemselves.
RussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sinterventionintheSyrianconflict
topropuptheregimeofBasharal-Assadhasn'tmadeadentinthe
abilityofRussiatosendmoreequipmenttoUkraine,either.Overthe
pastyear,Russiahasshippednewrocketlaunchers,artillery,drones,
andadvancedelectronicwarfareequipmenttotheeasternDonbassregion.
"Ithinktheycansustainthisforaconsiderableperiodoftime,"the
officialsaid."Ourviewisthattheycouldsustainthiseasilyfor24
months"evenifoilpricesremainlowandtheRussianeconomycontinues
tostagnate.DespiteanannouncementlastmonththattheRussian
militarywouldbegintowithdrawforcesfromSyria,insteadMoscowsent
moreadvancedhelicopters,andthelevelofdailyairstrikeshas
remainedsteady.
TheNATOtalks,someanalystssay,likelywon'tamounttomuch.But
they'reastart.OlgaOliker,directoroftheRussiaandEurasiaProgram
attheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudiessaysthat"right
now,theRussiansareatthetableintheinterestofsimplybeingat
thetable.IdothinkapartoftheRussianpurposeinmeetingwithNATO
is'beawareofus,payattentiontous,andyoucan'tdiscountus,'"
andnotmuchmore.
#21
NewYorkTimes
April21,2016
RussiaBolstersItsSubmarineFleet,andTensionsWithU.S.Rise
ByERICSCHMITT
NAPLES,Italy-Russianattacksubmarines,themostintwodecades,are
prowlingthecoastlinesofScandinaviaandScotland,theMediterranean
SeaandtheNorthAtlanticinwhatWesternmilitaryofficialssayisa
significantlyincreasedpresenceaimedatcontestingAmericanandNATO
underseadominance.
Adm.MarkFerguson,theUnitedStatesNavy'stopcommanderinEurope,
saidlastfallthattheintensityofRussiansubmarinepatrolshadrisen
byalmost50percentoverthepastyear,citingpublicremarksbythe
RussianNavychief,Adm.ViktorChirkov.Analystssaythattempohasnot
changedsincethen.
Thepatrolsarethemostvisiblesignofarenewedinterestinsubmarine
warfarebyPresidentVladimirV.Putin,whosegovernmenthasspent
billionsofdollarsfornewclassesofdieselandnuclear-poweredattack
submarinesthatarequieter,betterarmedandoperatedbymore
proficientcrewsthaninthepast.
Thetensionsarepartofanexpandingrivalryandmilitarybuildup,with
echoesoftheColdWar,betweentheUnitedStatesandRussia.Moscowis
projectingforcenotonlyintheNorthAtlanticbutalsoinSyriaand
Ukraineandbuildingupitsnucleararsenalandcyberwarfarecapacities
inwhatAmericanmilitaryofficialssayisanattempttoproveits
relevanceafteryearsofeconomicdeclineandretrenchment.
IndependentAmericanmilitaryanalystsseetheincreasedRussian
submarinepatrolsasalegitimatechallengetotheUnitedStatesand
NATO.Evenshortoftensions,thereisthepossibilityofaccidentsand
miscalculations.Butwhateverthethreat,thePentagonisalsousingthe
stepped-upRussianpatrolsasanotherargumentforbiggerbudgetsfor
submarinesandanti-submarinewarfare.
Americannavalofficialssaythatintheshortterm,thegrowingnumber
ofRussiansubmarines,withtheirabilitytoshadowWesternvesselsand
Europeancoastlines,willrequiremoreships,planesandsubstomonitor
them.Inthelongterm,theDefenseDepartmenthasproposed$8.1billion
overthenextfiveyearsfor"underseacapabilities,"includingninenew
Virginia-classattacksubmarinesthatcancarryupto40Tomahawkcruise
missiles,morethantriplethecapacitynow.
"We'rebacktothegreatpowerscompetition,"Adm.JohnM.Richardson,
thechiefofnavaloperations,saidinaninterview.
Lastweek,unarmedRussianwarplanesrepeatedlybuzzedaNavydestroyer
intheBalticSeaandatonepointcamewithin30feetofthewarship,
Americanofficialssaid.LastyearsomeofRussia'snewdiesel
submarineslaunchedfourcruisemissilesattargetsinSyria.
Mr.Putin'smilitarymodernizationprogramalsoincludesnew
intercontinentalballisticmissilesaswellasaircraft,tanksandair
defensesystems.
Tobesure,thereishardlyparitybetweentheRussianandAmerican
submarinefleets.Russiahasabout45attacksubmarines-abouttwo
dozenarenuclear-poweredand20arediesel-whicharedesignedtosink
othersubmarinesorships,collectintelligenceandconductpatrols.But
Westernnavalanalystssaythatonlyabouthalfofthoseareableto
deployatanygiventime.Moststayclosertohomeandmaintainan
operationaltempofarbelowaColdWarpeak.
TheUnitedStateshas53attacksubmarines,allnuclear-powered,aswell
asfourothernuclear-poweredsubmarinesthatcarrycruisemissilesand
SpecialOperationsforces.Atanygiventime,roughlyathirdof
America'sattacksubmarinesareatsea,eitheronpatrolsortraining,
withtheothersundergoingmaintenance.AmericanNavyofficialsand
WesternanalystssaythatAmericanattacksubmarines,whicharemadefor
speed,enduranceandstealthtodeployfarfromAmericanshores,remain
superiortotheirRussiancounterparts.
ThePentagonisalsodevelopingsophisticatedtechnologytomonitor
encryptedcommunicationsfromRussiansubmarinesandnewkindsof
remotelycontrolledorautonomousvessels.MembersoftheNATOalliance,
includingBritain,GermanyandNorway,areatthesametimebuyingor
consideringbuyingnewsubmarinesinresponsetotheKremlin's
projectionofforceintheBalticandArctic.
ButMoscow'srecentlyrevisednationalsecurityandmaritimestrategies
emphasizetheneedforRussianmaritimeforcestoprojectpowerandto
haveaccesstothebroaderAtlanticOceanaswellastheArctic.
Russiansubmarinesandspyshipsnowoperatenearthevitalundersea
cablesthatcarryalmostallglobalInternetcommunications,raising
concernsamongsomeAmericanmilitaryandintelligenceofficialsthat
theRussianscouldattackthoselinesintimesoftensionorconflict.
Russiaisalsobuildinganunderseaunmanneddronecapableofcarryinga
small,tacticalnuclearweapontouseagainstharborsorcoastalareas,
Americanmilitaryandintelligenceanalystssaid.
And,liketheUnitedStates,Russiaoperateslargernuclear-powered
submarinesthatcarrylong-rangenuclearmissilesandspendmonthsata
timehidinginthedepthsoftheocean.Thosesubmarines,although
lethal,donotpatrolliketheattacksubmarinesdo,anddonotposethe
samedegreeofconcerntoAmericanNavalofficials.
AnalystssaythatMoscow'scontinuedinvestmentinattacksubmarinesis
incontrasttothequalityofmanyofRussia'slandandairforcesthat
frayedinthepost-ColdWarera.
"IntheRussiannavalstructure,submarinesarethecrownjewelsfor
navalcombatpower,"saidMagnusNordenman,directoroftheAtlantic
Council'strans-AtlanticsecurityinitiativeinWashington."TheU.S.
andNATOhaven'tfocusedonanti-submarineoperationslately,and
they'veletthatskilldeteriorate."
ThathasallowedforarapidRussianresurgence,WesternandAmerican
officialssay,partlyinresponsetowhattheysayisRussia'sfearof
beinghemmedin.
"Idon'tthinkmanypeopleunderstandthevisceralwayRussiaviewsNATO
andtheEuropeanUnionasanexistentialthreat,"AdmiralFergusonsaid
inaninterview.
InNaples,attheheadquartersoftheUnitedStatesNavy'sEuropean
operations,includingtheSixthFleet,commandersforthefirsttimein
decadesarehavingtocloselymonitorRussiansubmarinemovements
throughthemaritimechokepointsseparatingGreenland,Icelandandthe
UnitedKingdom,theG.I.U.K.Gap,whichduringtheColdWarwerecrucial
tothedefenseofEurope.
Thatstretchofocean,hundredsofmileswide,representedthelinethat
SovietnavalforceswouldhavehadtocrosstoreachtheAtlanticandto
stopUnitedStatesforcesheadingacrosstheseatoreinforceAmerica's
Europeanalliesintimeofconflict.
Americananti-submarineaircraftwerestationedfordecadesattheNaval
AirStationKeflavikinIceland-inthemiddleofthegap-butthey
withdrewin2006,yearsaftertheColdWar.TheNavyafterthatrelied
onP-3sub-hunterplanesrotatingperiodicallythroughthebase.
Now,theNavyispoisedtospendabout$20milliontoupgradehangars
andsupportsitesatKeflaviktohandleitsnew,moreadvancedP-8A
Poseidonmaritimepatrolaircraft.ThatmoneyispartofthePentagon's
new$3.4billionEuropeanReassuranceInitiative,aquadruplingoffunds
fromlastyeartodeployheavyweapons,armoredvehiclesandother
equipmenttoNATOcountriesinCentralandEasternEurope,todeter
Russianaggression.
NavyofficialsexpressconcernthatmoreRussiansubmarinepatrolswill
pushoutbeyondtheAtlanticintotheMediterraneanandtheBlackSea.
RussiahasoneMediterraneanportnow,inTartus,Syria,butNavy
officialsheresayMoscowwantstoestablishothers,perhapsinCyprus,
EgyptorevenLibya.
"IfyouhaveaRussiannuclearattacksubmarinewanderingaroundthe
Med,youwanttotrackit,"saidDmitryGorenburg,aRussianmilitary
specialistattheCenterforNavalAnalysesinWashington.
Thismonth,theDefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgencychristeneda
132-footprototypedroneseacraftpackedwithsensors,theSeaHunter,
whichismadewiththeintentionofhuntingautonomouslyforsubmarines
andminesforuptothreemonthsatatime.
Thealliesarealsoholdinghalfadozenanti-submarineexercisesthis
year,includingalargedrillscheduledlaterthisspringcalledDynamic
MongooseintheNorthSea.Theexerciseistoincludewarshipsand
submarinesfromBritain,France,Germany,theNetherlands,Norway,
PolandandtheUnitedStates.
"WearenotquitebackinaColdWar,"saidJamesG.Stavridis,a
retiredadmiralandtheformersupremealliedcommanderofNATO,whois
nowdeanoftheFletcherSchoolofLawandDiplomacyatTufts
University."ButIsurecanseeonefromwherewearestanding."
#22
WallStreetJournal
April18,2016
Russia'sWilyMenandWomen
ByJOSHUAYAFFA
Mr.Yaffa,ajournalistbasedinMoscow,isacontributortotheNew
Yorker.HeisalsoafellowatNewAmerica.
PUTINCOUNTRY
ByAnneGarrels
Farrar,StrausandGiroux,228pages,$26
In2000,atthedawnofRussia'sPutinepoch,thesociologistYuri
Levadapublishedanarticletitled"TheWilyMan."Init,Mr.Levada
drewaportraitofaparticularlyRussianspecies-apersonalitytype
forgedbyamixtureofdoublespeak,irresponsibilityandthesuspicion
thatmaterializedduringtheSovietUnionandwasleftdisorientedby
thecollapseofthatsystem.Thewilymanisnotparticularlyfooledby
propagandaheknowsthestate'sweaknessesandfoibleswell.Butthat
doesnotmakethewilymanopposedtotherulingsystem-hedependsonit
andfearsitsabsencemorethanwhateverhardshipsitsexistencemay
bring.Thewilyman,Mr.Levadawrites,"notonlytoleratesdeception,
butiswillingtobedeceived"and,what'smore,"requires
self-deceptionforthesakeofhisownself-preservation."
Althoughthenominalsubjectof"PutinCountry"isChelyabinsk-an
industrialcityofonemillionpeopleeastoftheUralMountainsandits
surrounding,mineral-richregionofcoalminesanddenseforests-the
book'sdeeperandmorerevelatorythemeisthatoftheRussianwilyman.
AnneGarrels,itsauthor,isalongtimecorrespondentforNPR,andshe
hasthereportorialadvantageofbeginningherobservationof
Chelyabinskin1993,whenthewoundoftheSovietcollapsewasstill
fresh.Ms.Garrelshasreturnedtotheregionmanytimesovertheyears,
includingalongstintduringMr.Putin'smomentousandcurrentthird
presidentialterm,whichbeganin2012.
OnhermorerecentvisitstoChelyabinsk,Ms.Garrelsfindsacity
transformed-Moscowwasn'ttheonlycitybeautifiedthankstothe
country'swindfallofoilandgasprofitsinthe2000s.ChanelandH&M
haveshopsintownvisitorshavetheirpickofaHolidayInnora
Radisson.Chelyabinskcanbeacosmopolitan,happeningplace-thoughnot
onepronetoliberalpoliticsoroppositionactivism.Hencethebook's
title.
YetadecadeandahalfintoMr.Putin'srule,therearefewplacesin
Russiauntouchedbythesystemhehasconstructedandnowlordsover:
It'sall"PutinCountry."Ms.Garrelsadmitsthatallthoseyearsago
shefirstchoseChelyabinskatrandom-theresultofliterallythrowinga
sharpenedpencilatamap-andinawaythatshows:Thereislittle
remarkableabouttheplace,thoughthatisalsowhatmakesthebook
worthwhile.ThiscouldbeanywhereinRussia.
WhatmakesChelyabinskcompellingisitspeople.Theyarelargelydecent
andundeniablyintelligent,protectiveofwhattheyhaveachieved,wary
oftheunknown,and,aboveall,cleverandflexibleatadaptingto
changingtimes.Inaword,theyarethewilymen(andwomen)ofMr.
Levada'sessay.Earlyinthebook,Ms.GarrelsintroducesIrina,a
magazineeditorinher30swhohasaSwisseducationandaEuropean
wardrobe.Yetsheharborsa"resentment,almostanoutrighthatred"for
theWest.Irina,Ms.Garrelswrites,islikemanyinChelyabinsk:"They
aresickofbeatinguponthemselves.Theyaresickoftheircountry's
beingseenasnothingmorethanamafia-riddenkleptocracy-eventhough
theyarethefirsttocomplainaboutcorruption.Theyaresickofthe
West'sbeatinguponthemfortheirsins,especiallynowtheyaremore
awareofWesternsins."
LaterwemeetNatalia,whowasawomen's-rightsadvocateinthe1990s
andisnowfocusedonincreasingRussia'sbirthrateasamemberofthe
politicallyloyalcitycouncil.Herinterestsmayberetrogradeand,at
times,illiberal,butforNataliaacertaincynicismisasignof
enlightenmenttobeoverlyearnestistobenave.The1990s,asa
familiarargumentgoes-repeatedsomanytimesbyRussianpoliticiansand
punditsastobecomeakindofmantra-werelessatimeoffreedomthan
ofchaos."Idon'twanttorepeatthatperiod....Wedestroyedas
muchaswedeveloped,"Nataliasays.
PerhapsmosttellingisAlexander,wholivesinavillagefivehours
fromthecity.HeadmiresMr.Putinandthesystemthepresidenthas
built,evenashecomplainsthatcorruptionisrife,governanceispoor,
andthelocaleconomyisheldbackbyanoverbearingandrapacious
state.Alexander'scriticismsmirrorthoseofthecitizensinthebook
whoconsiderthemselvesdissidentsandactivists,thoughAlexanderwould
neverconsiderhimselfeitherone."HeisproudofPutin,"Ms.Garrels
writes,"andbetweenhimandthosewhodreadtheircountry'scurrent
course,thereisanunbridgeabledivide."
Thissortofinternalcontradictionisn'tuniquetoAlexander.Manyof
theRussiansMs.Garrelsmeetsholdviewsthatseemimpossibleto
reconcile.Shecitespollsthatshowthattwo-thirdsofethnicRussians
callthemselvesOrthodoxbelievers,butmanyofthoseverysamepeople
saythattheydonotbelieveinGod.Atonepoint,theauthorvisitsa
prestigiousstatesecondaryschoolwherethestudentsofferacurious
mixofheroes:JosephStalin,SteveJobs,BillGatesandGandhi.The
searchforapost-Sovietideologyhas,inChelyabinskandacrossRussia,
ledtoastrangemishmash,atoncefaithfulandmystical,distrustful
andfatalistic.
Although"PutinCountry"offersatactilesenseoflifeinChelyabinsk,
itcanalsofeelshallowandimpressionistic:Localwomen,Ms.Garrels
writesatonepoint,area"farcryfromthebabushkasofyore."More
frustratingaretherathersensationalallegationsthatdropinoutof
nowhereandareleftunexplored,suchasherclaimthatprisoninmates
inChelyabinskwerereleasedtofightonthesideofpro-Russianrebels
inUkraineiftheyrefused,shewrites,theyfacedfurtherpunishment.
AccordingtodoomsayersintheWest,thePutinsystemwassupposedto
havemetitspoliticaldownfallmanytimes:aftertheglobalfinancial
crashof2008-09,aftertheseasonofanti-Putinprotestin2011-12and,
mostrecently,after2014,whenWesternsanctions,lowoilpricesanda
tankingrublepushedtheRussianeconomyintoarecession.Butthe
rulingarchitecturethatMr.Putinhasbuilt-nottomentiontheman
himself-hasproveddurableinplaceslikeChelyabinsk.Forhislong-term
politicalsurvival,Mr.Putinwillneedtheacquiescence,evenifonly
passive,ofthecountry'swilymenandwomen-somethingthat,fornow,he
continuestoenjoy.
#23
BulletinoftheAtomicScientists
April14,2016
Interview
FormerUSambassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaul
ByJohnMecklin
ABSTRACT
Inthisinterview,formerUSambassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaul
discussesUS-Russianrelationsandhowtheymightbeimproved,given
RussianPresidentVladimirPutin'ssuspiciousviewsofUSintentions.
UntilhisreturntotheUnitedStatesin2014,MichaelMcFaulwastheUS
ambassadortoRussia,servingfortwoyearsinthatpostasrelations
betweenthetwocountrieswentfromtensetodreadful.Duringhis
ambassadorship-andinthreeprecedingyearsasaspecialassistantto
thepresidentontheNationalSecurityCouncil-McFaulplayedamajor
roleintheObamaadministration'sapproachtoPutin'sRussia,first
helpingtodriveanattempted"reset"ofUS-Russianrelationsandthen
tryingtodealwitheventsthatessentiallymadetheresetobsolete:
Moscow'sannexationofCrimeaanditssemi-stealthyinvasionofEastern
Ukraine.
McFaulreturnedtoacademiain2014,butheremainsdeeplyengagedwith
US-Russianpolicy,servingasthedirectorandaseniorfellowat
StanfordUniversity'sFreemanSpogliInstituteforInternational
Studies,aseniorfellowattheHooverInstitution,andaprofessorof
politicalscience.He'salsobeenaninformaladviseronRussianand
EuropeanaffairstotheHillaryClintonpresidentialcampaign.
McFaulspokewithBulletineditorinchiefJohnMecklininJanuary,as
theUSpresidentialprimarieswerekickingoff,thesituationinSyria
continuedtobecomplexandappalling,andtheWestandRussiaremained
atloggerheadsoverUkraine.
BAS:WhatdoyouthinkisthebestwayforwardfortheUnitedStates,
theWest,NATO?Istherereallyanythingtodo?Orshouldwejustbe
waitingforPutintobeoutofthepicture,
McFaul:Well,Iwouldfirstsay,thebestwaytoimproveUS-Russian
relationsisforPutintorethinksomeoftheprovocativethingshe's
done,right?Attheendoftheday,he'stheguywhoannexedCrimea.We
didn'tcausethatconfrontation.He'sthepersonwhodecidedtosupport
theseseparatistsinEasternUkraine.Andtheseareviolationsof
internationallaw,severalofthem,bytheway,treatiesthatRussiahas
signed.Andthoushallnotannexterritory-that'skindofa21st
centurynorm.Itmayhavebeenapracticeahundredyearsago,butit
shouldn'tbeapracticeinthe21stcentury.
Andsotheactionreallycomesonhisside,itseemstome,beforeyou
haveachanceforamorecooperativerelationshipwithourcountry.And
atthesametime,Iwouldjustsaythat,whenthere'snotanaspiration
for"reset2.0,"butjustanaspirationtofocusonaconcreteproblem,
weofcoursecanandshouldcontinuetoworkwiththeRussianswhenit
servesournationalinterest.Andsotheprospectsfornegotiating
somethinginSyria,they'reprobablyprettylow,thoseprobabilities,
butweshouldengagewithRussia,astheObamaadministrationisdoing,
totrytomakethathappen.
SamewiththeimplementationoftheMinskagreement[tohaltthewarin
EasternUkraine].I'dactuallythinktheprobabilitiesforUkraineare
higherthantheyareforSyriarightnow.Butweshouldengageintalk
andtrytoseekthoseoutcomeswhentheybecomeavailable.
BAS:Well,I'mjustcuriousaboutthat.Onwhatdoyoubasewhatyou
justsaid,thenotionthattheRussiansmightactuallydosomething
aboutUkraine?Fromtheoutsideitlookslike,no,they'renotaboutto
giveCrimeaback,ordoanythingabouttheeasternpartofUkraine,
exceptwhatthey'vebeendoing.Doyouknowsomethingelse.
McFaul:We'reontherecord,right?
BAS:I'mrecording,yes.
McFaul:SoIwouldjustsaythis,thattheRussianeconomyhadoneof
itsworstyearsinadecadelastyear.Thereisasensethatit'snot
goingtobeeasytogetbackontrack.Andthereisadebatenow
unfoldinginRussia,quietly,notabigdebate,mostlyanelitedebate.
Butthereisadebate,andsomeprominentpeoplesometimesmakeit
public,likeHermanGrefofSberbank[Russia'slargestbank]didjust
lastweek,thatmaybewe'vegonetoofarhere,andthatwhatarewe
reallygetting?Hedidn'tsaythisexactlyIdon'twanttoputwords
intoHermanGref'smouth.ButwhatIwouldsay,lookingatthisdebate,
isthattherearesome[inRussia]whothinksanctionsreliefismore
importantthancontinuingtokeepthisfesteringquasi-civilwargoing
inEasternUkraine.
Idon'twanttojudgetheoutcome.Idon'twanttopretendIknowwhat
Putin'sthinkingabout.Butthefactthatthedebateishappening,that
atthehighestlevels,includingwithPutinfromtimetotime,USand
EuropeanofficialsaretalkingwithRussiansaboutthat.Otherlittle
thingsthathavehappenedrecently-where[USStateDepartment]
AssistantSecretaryVictoriaNulandmetinKaliningradwithValadislav
Surkov,aKremlinadvisor,totalkaboutthesethings.That'snew.That
wasn'thappeningjustsixmonthsago.
AndsoIdon'twanttogetaheadofmyskisandbetoooptimistic,butI
seeactivitywithrespecttotryingtoresolvetheconflictinEastern
Ukraine.NotCrimea-Iwanttopointthatout.Crimeaisreallynot
beingdiscussed.ButIseemoreactivitythanjustayearago,and
whetheritleadstoresultsornot,Ican'tpredict.Buttherearemore
attemptstotrytoresolveitthantherewerebefore.
BAS:WhatisyourgeneralassessmentofPutin?Ishesomebodywhowould
listentootherpeoplesuggestingthathechangepoliciesinUkraine?
Again,lookingfromoutside,itseemstomehe'sgotaworldviewthat
theWesthasbeenprogressivelytryingtoessentiallyoverthrowhis
government.Wouldhelistentootherssaying,"Yeah,butweneedtocalm
downtheUkrainethingformoney'ssake?"
McFaul:Well,hemostcertainlyhasthatworldview.Ithinkthat's
right.Imean,I'velistenedtohimpersonallydescribeit.Sohedoes
assignthismotivationtoWesternleaders,includingPresidentObama,
and,whenIwasambassador,tomepersonally.Justasweinhisview
havefomentedregimechangeintheArabworld,andthenthecolor
revolutionsbeforethat,andthenafterthatinRussiaandUkraine,he
seesusorheassignstousthatkindofbothambitionandcapability-
grosslyoverstatedandinaccurateinmymind,Ijustwanttomakethat
clear.It'sallinhismind,becausewewerenotfomentingrevolutionin
EgyptortheseotherplacesandmostcertainlynotinRussiaorUkraine.
Butthat'shisworldview,that'sright.Iagreewiththat.Andthat's
notgoingtochange.Nobody'sgoingtoconvincehimotherwiseatthis
stageinhispoliticalcareer.
Atthesametime,hedoesfaceeconomicchallenges.Andhe'sasmart
enoughguytospeakwiththosewhoworryabouttheeconomyinakindof
rationalpragmaticway.Andsoyou'vegottodealwiththat,
irrespectiveofwhatyouthinktheAmericansaredoingornotdoing.And
thatIthinkisthedebateunderwayinRussiarightnow.
BAS:SomehavesuggestedthatPutin'slostconnectionwithrealityI
thinkthosewere[GermanChancellor]AngelaMerkel'swords.Imean,you
don'tseemtohavethatviewofhim.Youthinkofhimasquiterational.
McFaul:No.Iwanttobeclearaboutthat.Ithinkyoucanhavetwo
impulsesatthesametime.First,tomakeeverybodyreallysimpleis-
frommyexperienceingovernment,it'sthebiggestflawthatwe
academicshave.Like,he'sarationalactor,orhe'snot.Itturnsout
thatmostpeople,includingmanyAmericanleadersthatIobserve,have
bothofthoseimpulses.We'renotjustrealistsandneocons.Youknow,
there'samixofthingsthatpeoplewant.Andsometimes[ideasin]the
mixofwhatyouwantclash,right?Andthefactthatyouhavetwodual
impulsesthatclashdoesn'tmakeyoucrazyitjustmeansyouhavetwo
differentpreferences,right?
Tomakethislessabstract:Igainedweightasanambassador,right?I
wanttoloseweight.ThatisanobjectiveIseek.Andyetifyouputa
cookieinfrontofme,I'mlikelytotakeabiteofit,evenifit's
contradictingthatothergrandgoalthatIhave.Thatdoesn'tmakeme
crazythat'skindofhumannature.AndIwouldsaythesameabout
Putin.PutincanbesuspiciousoftheWestandwillbealongthelines
wejusttalkedabout.Andattimes,whenhethinksitmeetsanother
objectivethathealsoseeks,hewillbewillingtoengageanddodeals
withus.Aswesawbefore,whenwewerehavinganincrediblyheated
debatewiththeRussianswhenIwasinthegovernmentaboutthenature
ofthechallengetotheAssadregime.Andhethoughtweweresupporting
regimechange.Andweweretryingtosupportapoliticalsolution.And
wenevercouldcometoagreementonthatquestion,atleastnotyet.And
evenamidstallthattension,wealsodidthedealonremovingchemical
weaponsfromSyria,right?
Sohe'scapableofthat-Idon'tknowwhatyouwouldcallit-
compartmentalization,maybe,whereyoucanstillhavethatviewbutalso
cooperateonsomething.Andlet'sjustbeclear.Ifheeverdidreally
leanintoenforcetheMinskAgreementanddothethingsthatRussiaand
theirsurrogatesinEasternUkrainewouldhavetodo,ofcoursehewould
frameitas,"Well,weachievedvictory,andsonowwecandothese
things."Hewouldnotsay,"BecauseObamaandMerkelputpressureonme,
I'venowchangedmypolicy."Hewouldneverspeakinthosetermstohis
peoplebackhome.
BAS:AretherethingstheUnitedStatescoulddotohelphimsaveface
inthatway?
McFaul:Youknow,Ithinkthepolicyhasbeenveryclearandconsistent.
AndIleftthegovernmentacoupleyearsago,butIthinktheideathat
ifyouannexacountryandyousupportaproxyindependencecampaignin
thecountry,thereshouldbeapricetopayforthat.AndI'mimpressed
bythefactthat[theObamaadministration]managedtogetsuch
comprehensivesanctionsandtoholdtheminplace.That'snotaneasy
diplomatictasktokeeptheminplace.
AndI'mimpressedbytheadministration'sveryrational,non-emotional
statementthatitrepeatedlymakes,whichis,"Ifthisaccordis
implemented,thenwewillliftthesanctionsthatweputinplacein
responsetothisinterventioninEasternUkraine."Ithinkthat'sthe
correctway.SoPutinknowsexactlywhathe'sgetting.
MypersonalassessmentoftheMinskaccordis-Ithinkthat'sapretty
weakdeal.Ithinkit'snotagreatdealfortheUkrainians,frankly.
But,youknow,itwasnegotiated.ThepresidentofUkrainesignedit,so
there'snotawaytorenegotiatethat.ButIsaythatbecauseIdon't
thinkitwillbethathardforPutintosellitbackhomeasan
achievementforRussia.
BAS:I'vehadalotofpeopleexpressconcerntomeaboutthenumberand
kindofmilitaryexercisesthatNATOandtheUnitedStatesandRussia
areengagedin.Andinreadingupforthisinterview,Inoticedyou've
advocatedthatsomedefensiveweaponsbeprovidedtoUkraine,andthat
moretroopsbestationedinNATOcountriesthatareundergreatest
threatfromRussia.Howdoyouseethedangerofanyofthisactually
escalating,becomingwhatwealldon'twant,somekindofshootingwar?
Whereisthebalancebetween,okay,weshouldshowtheRussiansthat
theycan'tjustwalkintotheBaltics,butatthesametimenotcreate
situationsthatcouldactuallyleadtowar.
McFaul:Well,thebestwaytopreventwarintheBalticstatesisto
makeitjustimpossibleforPutintoconsidergoingintoandinvadinga
NATOcountry.HereIagreewithRonaldReagan,peacethroughstrength.
Whichistosay,ifit'sambiguouswhatourcommitmentis,tome
ambiguityincreasestheprobabilityofconflictwithrespecttoourNATO
allies.It'snottheotherwayaround.Ithinkinadifferenttimeone
wouldarguedifferentthings,right?Therewasatimenottoolongago
whenIwasinthegovernmentwhereIdidn'tseetheneedforsomeof
theseexercisesbecausewewereinamuchmorecooperativetimewith
Russia.[Then-RussianPresidentDmitri]MedvedevcametotheNATOsummit
andlistenedin2010andsaidbasicallytheColdWar'sover,andwecan
cooperatewiththeNATOalliance.Thatwasjustfiveyearsago,bythe
way.Weweretalkingaboutcooperatingonmissiledefense.
Sointhatkindofera,theideaofmakingmorecredibleour[NATO]
Article5commitmentsdidnotseemnecessary.ButPutininvadeda
country.Imean,heannexedterritoryinEurope.Thatdemandsa
response.Sothattomemeansthatonehastomakethosecommitments
lookmorecredibleatatimewhenthey'vebeendrifting,andpeoplehave
beenuncertain.Withrespecttothealliance,Ithinkthatthat'sthe
wayweavoidwar.
Andbytheway,somepeopletalkaboutRussiacomingintotheBaltic
statesIthinkthat'saprettylowprobability.Gettingbackagainto
thethingswetalkedaboutearlier,Idon'tthinkPutin'sthatcrazy.
Butwewanttoreducetheambiguityasmuchaswecan.
BAS:YoutalkedearlieraboutevenwiththishugedivideoverUkraine
andtosomedegreeSyria,theremaybeotherareasthatRussiaandthe
UnitedStatescouldstilltalkandreachagreement.Howdoyouview
nucleararmscontrol?Isthatsomethingthatcancontinueatallbefore
Ukraineissolved?Ornot?
McFaul:Idon'tthinkithastodowithUkraine.WhenIwasinthe
government,wehadaveryclearpolicyofnolinkage,right?Very
controversialwithsomeofourcritics,Iknow,butwebelieved,again,
borrowingfromtheReaganadministration-that'swheretheseideas,at
leastforme,camefrom-thatifweweregoingtohaveprogressonarms
control,wehadtodelinkthatfromotherissues,whetherit'sUkraine
todayorbackthenitwouldhavebeensomeotherissues.Andthatwas
ourfirmpolicy.And,wegottheNewSTARTTreatydone.Iwaspartof
thatteam.Butwediditindependentlyofotherthingsgoingoninthe
relationship.Ithinkthatneedstobethestrategymovingforward.I
thinkitwouldbestrangetosaythatuntilyouleaveCrimea,we'renot
goingtodomorearmscontrol.Iwouldn'tsignuptothatkindoflinkage.
ButIwouldsaytheprobabilitiesofanewagreementanytimesoonare
nexttozero.That'sessentiallybecausetheRussiansdon'twantto
engage.They'rehappywiththenewSTARTtreaty."Happy"isastrong
word.Theyhavelearnedtolivewithitandhaveacquiescedtoit.But
theideaofgoingtolowernumbersandstartingnegotiations,theydon't
wanttodo.Infact,theymadeitclearwellbeforeUkraine,whenIwas
stillinthegovernment,thattheyweren'tinterestedinanotherround
ofnegotiations.Withonecaveat:Whattheywouldalwayssay,"Well,as
longaswebegintotalkaboutlimitsondefensiveweaponsandmissile
defenses,thenwecouldstarttohavethatconversation."
AndtheObamaadministrationwasnotwillingtoacceptthatkindof
precondition,andI'mnotthatoptimistic.Idon'tknowallthe
[presidential]candidates,butIwouldthinkit'dberatherdifficultin
2017tobeginasetofnegotiationsoveranewtreatythatwouldinclude
limitsonourmissiledefensesystemsatthismomentintime.
BAS:Wouldn'tthatmoreorlessprecludeanyarmscontrolagreements?
McFaul:Yes.That'swhatIsaid.It'snotbecauseofUkraine,that'smy
point.It'sbecauseoftheseotherdynamicsinthestrategicbilateral
relationship.
BAS:I'mgoingtoaskaquestionthatmayjustbetoopoliticalforyou
togetinto.Ifso,justsayso.Butwhatareyourthoughtsaboutsome
waytonudgetheAmericanpresidentialelectoralprocesstowardmore
realisticdiscussionsofmajorinternationalaffairsissues,suchas
US-Russianrelations?Oristhatjusthopingfortheimpossible,thatat
leastinageneralelectiontherecouldberealisticdiscussionofoptions?
McFaul:Well,italldependsonwhatyoumeanbytheworld"realistic,"
becausethere'sactuallyalotofvariation,ifyouaddTrumptothe
equation,abouthowtodealwithRussiainthedebate.Myassessmentis
thatwhatTrumpissayingabouthisstrategyvis-a-visPutinisvery
unrealistic.SoIdon'tknowwhereyoucomedownandthewayyoudefine
realistic,buttheideathathe'sjustgoingtoforgetaboutCrimea,and
we'regoingtogetalongwithPutin,andI'mgoingtododealsbecauseI
knowhowtododeals-thatdoesn'tsoundveryrealistictomeor
pragmaticintermsofthestrategy.
Conversely,theotherextreme-thatI'mnotgoingtotalktotheguy
becausehe'sathug-thatalsodoesn'tsoundrealistictome.That
doesn'tsoundlikeastrategythatadvancesAmericannationalinterests.
Iguessintermsofjusttactics,wheneverI'maskedbyjournalistswho
actuallyinteractwiththesecandidatesfromtimetotime-forme,when
Ilistentothedebate,Iwanttoknownotwhatthegoalis.That's
easy.Anybodycansetoutsomegoal.Therealquestionis,"Howareyou
goingtoachievethatoutcome?"Right?Andtothatend,youalways,in
myview,havetohavearealisticconversation:"Well,whatwouldyoudo
differentlythanwhatthecurrentadministrationisdoingthatwould
thengiveusanyreasontobelievethatyouwouldbemoresuccessful
withwhatyou'retryingtodo?"
ManycandidatestalkaboutISIS,right?"We'regoingtobombISIS.We're
goingtodefeatISIS."Well,tellmeexactlyhowyou'regoingtodefeat
ISIS.HowmanytimesareyougoingtoattackISIS?Doyouevenknowhow
manytimestheadministrationhas?I'llbetyoualotofpeopledon't
knowthattherehavebeenover10,000attacksagainstISISsofar.And
theprogram,OperationInherentResolve,ismeasuredinthebillions[of
dollars]already.Soyou'regoingtodoublethat?You'regoingtotriple
that?Andthentelluswhyyouthinkthatwillachievetheendsyouwant.
IwouldsaythesamethingaboutPutin.Soyou'regoingtobetoughwith
Putin?Well,whatdoesthatmean?Whatexactlydoesitmeantobetough
withPutin?TherearemoresanctionsonmoreRussiansandmoreRussian
companiestodaythanprobablyatanypointinthe200-yearhistoryof
US-Russianrelations.Soyou'regoingtotriplethat?Whatdoesitmean
tobetoughbeyondwherewe'reattoday?
ButamIoptimisticthatwe'regoingtohavethatconversation?No,I'm
notoptimistic.
BAS:Itsurewouldbenicetohaveinsomeofthesedebatesthe
moderatorsbeissueandareaexperts,asopposedtoacablenewstalking
head.Butthat'sprobablyafar-fetchedwishalso.
I'vetaken25minutesoutofyourlifealreadyhere.ButIwanttoask
onemorequestion.
McFaul:Allright,sir.
BAS:TheotherdayGeorgeShultzandBillPerrydidaBulletinevent
thereatStanford.Theywerebothdescribingasortoftrack-two
diplomacykindofthingthattheyweregoingtohavetheyhadhad
variouslevelsofRussianofficialscomevisitStanford,andtheywere
goingtohavemore.Andtheyweresuggestingthatonewaytoimprovethe
relationshipwas,ashappenedbackwhentheSovietUnionwasdissolving,
tohavemoretrack-twoactivity,moreexchangeattheexpertlevelin
academiaandatthescientistlevel.Whatdoyouthinkaboutthat?Does
thatactuallyeverhelpanything?
McFaul:I'malwaysabigfanoftracktwoengagements,orwhatIwould
callsociety-to-societyengagements.Tracktwooftentimeshassome
pretensionsthatwe'regoingtotalk,andthenwe'regoingtogotoour
governmentsandtellthemwhattodo.AndI'mallforthataswell.I
participatedinthosemeetingsthatGeorgeandBilljustorganizedlast
week.ButIjustthinkmoreconnectivitybetweensocietiesingeneralis
goodfortheAmericannationalinterests.Becausewe'regoingtohave
disagreementswiththeRussiangovernmentandwiththeRussianpeople
aboutsubstantiveissues.Ithinkwecouldreducethem,butwe're
inevitablygoingtohavesomeofthose,nomatterifPutin'sthereor
somebodyelse.
Whatwecan'tallowistohavedisagreementsbasedonbadinformationor
misperception.AndIseethatalotrightnowinUS-Russianrelations.I
witnesseditwhenIwasinthegovernment.IwitnesseditwhenIwas
ambassador.Anditdrovemenuts.Youknow,whenwe'rearguingabout
whethertwoplustwoequalsfiveorfour,that'snogood.Thatmakesthe
biggerproblemsthatweneedtosolvenearlyimpossible.Soanytime
therecanbemoreinteractionbetweenscientists,betweenstudents,
betweenformergovernmentofficialsinthekindoftracktwoway,I
thinkbothofoursocietiesinthelongrunwillbebetteroff.
#24
TheAmericanInterest
www.the-american-interest.com
April19,2016
HOWTHEWESTMISJUDGEDRUSSIAPART13
TheKremlin'sTriadastheMeansofSurvival
TheWestneedstounderstandthattheRussianSystemiswillingtofight
foritssurvival,andthatthisfightcouldtakemanydifferentforms.
ByLILIASHEVTSOVA
LiliaShevtsovaisanonresidentseniorfellowintheCenteronthe
UnitedStatesandEurope,partoftheForeignPolicyProgramatthe
BrookingsInstitution.FormerlywiththeCarnegieEndowmentfor
InternationalPeace.
Editor'sNote:HowdoRussiaandtheWestseeoneanother?Whatarethe
experts'viewsontheconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheWest?Howdo
thepunditsexplaintheRusso-UkrainianwarandRussia'sSyriangambit?
WhataretherootsofthemythologyaboutRussiaintheWest,andwhy
hastheWestfailedtopredictandunderstandRussia'strajectory?This
isthe13thandfinalessayinaseriesthatseekstoanswerthese
questions.
Civilizationsinastateofdecayhavetoimprovisetostayalive,but
theseimprovisationsoftenhavedramaticimplicationsfortherestof
theworldandcanevenacceleratedemiseratherthanpostponingit.
Russiatodayisexhibitingafunnellogicofakindonecouldciteasan
exampleofsuicidalstatecraft.First,theKremlincreatesaproblemand
then,intryingtodealwithit,provokesevenmoreseriousproblems.
TheCrimeaannexationinMarch2014wasthepointofdeparturefora
ruinous,seeminglypredestinedpathforRussiaunderthecurrent
politicalregimeithardlyseemspossiblethatRussiacanchangecourse.
TheannexationwasfollowedbyRussia'sundeclaredwaronUkraine,which
distractedtheworld'sattentionfromCrimeabutyieldedgrave(domestic
andinternational)consequencesforRussia.TheKremlinbegantolook
forexitfromtheUkrainiancrisisandsodraggedRussiaintotheSyrian
quagmire.
TheSyria"project"wasintendedtoreturnRussiatotheglobalMega
League.1Amarginalizedstatecan'tbeasuperpower,whichforRussia
constitutesoneofthekeypillarsofthepersonalizedpowersystem.
Timeisacriticalfactor:AEuropeconsumedwithitsownchallengesand
alameduckU.S.PresidentgavetheKremlinwhatitviewedasawindow
ofopportunity.TheKremlinpolicyof"coercivedating"-thatis,
rampinguppressureinordertoforcetheobjectofdesireintoa
dialogueorcooperation-hadtopersuadetheWesternleaderstoagreeto
anewbargaininordertostaveoffanotherroundofRussianbulldozing.
U.S.-RussiacooperationonIrancreatedanimpressionthatthesame
wouldbecontinuedonSyria.ZbigniewBrzezinskiwrote,
"Onemighthavethought...thatthenextphaseincopingwiththeSyrian
problemmightinvolvearenewedefforttoresolveit....Instead,Moscow
haschosentointervenemilitary,butwithoutpoliticalortactical
cooperationwiththeUS....AtbestitwasadisplayofRussianmilitary
incompetenceatworst,evidenceofadangerousdesiretohighlight
Americanpoliticalimpotence."
IwouldaddthattherewasonemorereasonforMoscow'sSyrianforay:
Obama'srejectionoftheKremlin's"GrandAnti-TerroristCoalition"
idea,whichforcedMoscowtoturnto"coercivedating."
TheKremlinwarinSyrianotonlyaddedtothedestabilizationofthe
MiddleEastbutalsoincreasedtheterroristthreatinRussiaandfor
Russia.AfterRussiagotitselfinvolvedinSyria,itsconfrontation
withTurkey,whichhasitsownpowerfulinterestsintheregion,was
unavoidable(thoughunexpectedfortheKremlinnonetheless).
InMarch2016Moscowannouncedthepulloutof"itsmainforces"from
Syria,anannouncementthatonceagainbaffledtheworld.TheRussian
militarycampaigndidnotachievetheKremlin'sproclaimedgoals:
strengtheningtheSyrianstateandpreventingIslamicradicalismfrom
spreading.ButtheKremlinhassucceeded,atleastpartially,withits
realagenda:Ithasbrokenitsinternationalisolationandforcedthe
Westtoacceptitasanactorthatcan'tbeignored,andithaspushed
theUkrainiancrisistotheperipheryoftheinternationalscene.
Moreover,Moscowhasreturnedtousingmilitaryleverageasan
instrumentofinternationalrelations.TheendoftheColdWarproved,
however,howdisastrousmilitaryescalationcanbeforasysteminan
advancedstateofdecay.ItcouldbeevenmoredevastatingforRussia,
whichisevenmoredependentontheWestthantheSovietUnion.
Hence,theoutcomeoftheKremlin'ssurvivalescapadesisuncertain.On
theonehand,itsforeignpolicyhasbeensuccessfulinbuildingnew
domesticlegitimacyatatimewhenitsinternalresourceshavebeen
crumbling.Ontheotherhand,ithasbecomeevidentthatthenexus
betweendomesticandforeignpoliciesistoocostlyandcouldsetoffa
timebomb.TheKremlintodayhastodealwithanundeclaredwarwith
Ukraine,anongoingwarinSyria,andaconfrontationwithTurkey.In
caseofendingtheseconflicts,theKremlinhastolookforanew
justificationforits"nationatwar"survivalmodel.Meanwhile,
Russians,whohaveturnedintoconsumerists,arenotgoingtosacrifice
theirlivingstandardsindefinitelyforwarsandasearchforenemies
thathavenoapparentconnectiontotheirinterests.The
military-patrioticdrughasstartedtowearoff.
Tryingtofindabalancebetweenconfrontationandcooperationwiththe
West,theKremlinoffersconflictingmessages.Fromtimetotimeit
appearstohavedecidedtoswitchtotheroleofPeacemaker."Wearenot
interestedinconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheWest"isoneof
Lavrov'sfavoriteslogans."DespitetheunfriendlystepsofourWestern
partnerswecontinuetofightagainstmovingdowntotheprimitive
confrontationalmodel,"theRussianForeignMinisterhasrepeatedagain
andagain,doinghisbesttoconvincethefewwhostillbelievethis
rhetoric.
OnehastolistentothewholeRussiansymphony,ofcourse.This
friendlyaccompanimentcan'toverpoweranothermuchlouderandmore
centralmelody:"Russiaisnotgoingtostepback."Russiarefusesto
live"inastateofsemi-occupation,"Putinhaswarned,startingwith
hisfamousFebruary2007speechinMunich.LavrovexplainswhyRussia
hasbeendissatisfied,
"OurWesterncolleagues[havesetonacourseof]preservingtheir
dominationinworldaffairsbyallpossiblemeans,onseizingthe
geopoliticalspaceinEurope....Ateachstageofthecrisis's
development,ourAmericancolleagues,andundertheirinfluence,also
theEuropeanUnion,havebeentakingstepsleadingtoescalation."
ChairmanoftheStateDumaSergeyNaryshkinechoesthis:"TheU.S.is
interestedininstabilitythatgivesthemthepossibilitytocontinue
oldandnewmischief."Peacefulstatements,aren'tthey?Russia'swarin
SyriaanditsconfrontationwithTurkeydemonstratethatMoscowcould
putonthewarhelmetanywhere,atanytime.Butconfrontationisnot
theKremlin'sgoal-notatall!TheRussianrulingteamisnotkamikaze,
evenifitsometimeslooksthisway.Confrontation,orratherthethreat
ofconfrontation,isthemeanstocreateafavorableinternational
environmentfortheRussianSystem,toforcetheWesttoacceptthe
Kremlin'sgameandtojustifytheanti-WesterninsulationofRussian
society.
HereishowPutinexplainshispolicy:Americaisguiltyofallevils
happeningtotheworld,butwearereadytoofferadialogueandgive
themachancetobehave.ThisistheusualPutinstatement:"Attempts
[byWashington,ofcourse]topromoteamodelofunilateral
domination...haveledtoanimbalanceinthesystemofinternationallaw
andglobalregulation,whichmeansthereisathreat,andpolitical,
economicormilitarycompetitionmaygetoutofcontrol...."Butthe
RussianPresidentgiveshopetotheworld:"Forallthedramaofits
currentsituation,Syriacanbecomeamodelforpartnershipinthename
ofcommoninterests,resolvingproblemsthataffecteveryone,and
developinganeffectiveriskmanagementsystem."InhisStateofthe
UnionmessagePutinsaid,"Weneedtostopallourargumentsand
overcomedifferences,andbuildpowerfulfist,aunitedanti-terrorist
front."
ThenewNationalSecurityStrategyofRussia,signedbythePresidenton
December31,2015,showstheverynatureoftheKremlin'spolitical
thinking.ThepriorityfortheRussianauthoritiesisnotthequalityof
lifeofRussiancitizens,butthedefenseofRussia.Butdefenseagainst
whom?Whoaretheenemiesthatforcethestatetospenditsshrinking
resourcesondefenseanddeterrencebutnotonsocialproblems?Itlooks
likethekeythreatis"unsustainabilityoftheglobalandregional
architecture,based,especiallyintheEuro-Atlanticregion,onlyonthe
NorthAtlanticAlliance."ThisisintheKremlin'sviewthekeythreat
toRussia.Whowoulddoubtit!ButtheKremlinisnotgoingtostartan
armsraceoranewColdwarwiththeWest.AstheNationalSecurity
Strategysays,Russia"issupportingstrengtheningoftheengagement
withtheEU"and"isreadyfordevelopmentofrelationswiththeNorth
Atlantictreaty,"andRussia'sgoalisthe"buildingofstrategic
partnershipwiththeUSonthebasisofequalityandcommoninterests."
Butwhatkindof"partnership"ispossiblebetweenRussiaandtheWest,
whoseexpansion"eastward"totheRussianborderallegedlyhasbrought
aboutthecurrentconfrontation?
Somecouldcallthisapproachpoliticalschizophrenia.Othersmayseeit
asdemonstrationofthecognitivedissonance.Iwouldrefrainfromthe
medicalterminologyandarguethatasoupofincompatibleingredientsis
thebestwaytoportraytheKremlin'sTriadparadigm:"Tobewiththe
WesttobeinsidetheWestandtobeagainsttheWest."ThisTriad,
withanemphasisonthefirsttwoelements,helpedtheKremlintoplay
theWest-andquitesuccessfully-duringtheprevious25years.Annexing
Crimea,theKremlinhadtobelievethattheWestwouldbeangrybutin
theendwouldbeabletostomachthenewgeographicallandscape.It
couldhavegonethisway,ifnotfortheaggressionagainstUkraine
Westernpatienceprovedlimited.
TheWorldofAmbiguity
TheKremlin'supdatedinternationalagendasoonrevealeditself.As
Putinsaid,the"Ukrainecrisis"isnotreallyaboutUkraineatall:"It
hasemergedinresponsetotheattemptsoftheUSAanditsWestern
allieswhoconsideredthemselves'winners'oftheColdWartoimpose
theirwilleverywhere."InMunichin2015,Lavrovacknowledgedthat
UkraineistheinstrumentthatshouldforcetheWestto"negotiateanew
securitysystemonthebasisofre-confirmingtheHelsinkiprinciples."
(Indeed,thereisanelementofhypocrisyinthesestatements:Ukraine
hasfortheKremlinanindependentvalueasanelementofRussia'sgalaxy.)
InDecember2015,intheinterviewforthemovieGlobalOrder,Putin
madeclearhispositiononthewarinSyria,statingthat"ISISisnota
crucialfactor"intheKremlin'sinternationalagenda.Thekeychallenge
fortheKremlin,Putindeclared,is"thegeopoliticalstruggle"andthe
needtoestablish"commonrules"basedon"internationallaw."(One
could,ofcourse,explorehisorhersenseofironybycontemplating
callstoobserveinternationallawfromtheRussianleader.)Hence,one
couldconcludethattheRussianauthoritiesthinkthatitistheright
momenttoforcetheWesttostartdiscussingthenewworldorder.To
debatetheepicdilemma-WarorPeace,orhowtodealwithGlobal
Disorder-isawell-knownSoviettrick.Itcouldtakedecadesbeforethe
Westernpartnersdiscoverthattheyhavebeenengagedwithsomeone
sellingair.Butthenagainperhapssomeofthemcouldfindthisprocess
profitabletoo.
AstheGermansocialistEdwardBernsteininthe19thcenturysaid,"The
processiseverythingandthegoalisnothing!"Leninlaterlikedto
paraphraseNapoleon("Ons'engageetpuitonvoit"):"Let'sgetfighting
andseewhathappens!"WeknowwhattheoutcomeofLenin'sprinciplewas
forRussiaandtheworldinthe20thcentury.Todaythisrecipeisthe
tacticofchoiceforapoliticalregimethatisnotreadytolosebut
hasnothingtooffer.
SomanytimestheRussianpoliticaleliteanditspunditscomplained
thatthecurrentorderisunjust,humiliatingforRussia,andprovoking
a"neo-Versaillessyndrome."TodaytheKremlindemandsareadjustmentto
theglobalrulessoastogiveRussiaamoredignifiedroleonthe
internationalscene.Thisisit!The"pivot"toChinaandallthefairy
talesabouttheBRICSbecominganalternativepolehavejustbeen
instrumentstopersuadetheWesterncapitalstorenewtheirengagement
withMoscow."Otherwisewe'lldoitwithBeijing!"theywarn,but
withoutmuchconvictionrecently.TheinterventioninSyriaandconflict
withTurkeyhavetogiveadditionalpersuasivenesstotheKremlinoffer.
Ofcourse,thenewdialoguehastobebuiltontheKremlin'sterms.The
Kremlin'sideaofdialogueisbasedonthebeliefthattheWesthas
historicallyexhausteditself,andthemomenthascomewhenRussiacan
suggestwhatLavrovrecentlydescribedas"movementtowardpartnership
ofcivilizations."True,hedoesnotexplainhowthispartnershipcanbe
achievediftheRussianleadershipcontinuesitsanti-Westerncrusade.
ButiftheWestisnotreadyfor"partnership",newattemptstopersuade
itwillfollow.
Butwhatistheblueprintofthe"newworldorder"suggestedbythe
Kremlin?Itisintentionallyvague.Putinhasbeenconstantlyreturning
toideaoftheYaltasettlement,whichlegitimizedareasofglobal
influence.Butdoeshereallybelieveinpossibilityofredrawingthe
bordersandreturningEasternEurope,togetherwiththepost-Soviet
space,intoMoscow'spocket?OrdoeshebelievethattheWest,together
withIranandtheSunnistates,willagreetodividetheMiddleEast
withRussia?Hardly.
Rhetoricmeansnothing.TheKremlinispursuinganexemplary
post-postmodernpolicycomprisedofincompatibleelementsandblurred
linesbetweenprinciplesandnorms,warandpeace,rightandwrong,
realityandimitation,allyandenemy,lawandlawlessness,andinternal
andexternalconflict.Thestate-intrudercouldeasilystartthe
struggleforpeace.Thetopicof2015Valdaiconferencewas"Societies
BetweenWarandPeace:OvercomingtheLogicofConflictinTomorrow's
World."TheKremlin,afterhavinginitiatedmilitaryconflict,has
decidedtoofferitsvisionofhowtoestablishalastingpeace.Very
Putinesque!(AndtheWesternpunditryreadilytookpartinthisKremlin
exercise.)
TheRussianSyrianwithdrawalisonemoreexampleoftheKremlin's
"post-postmoderntechnique."Itwasunexpected,anditcreated
uncertaintyastowhetheritwasatotalpullout,apartialone,oreven
notapulloutatall!2Hereyouare:theKremlinisenforcingits
versionoftheHobbesianworldorderithastobebasednoton
internationaltreatiesandtrust,butontheambiguity,uncertaintyas
totheintentionsoftheactors,andtheirreadinessforsurprise
breakthroughs.ThisorderhasnothingincommonwithYaltaorthe
EuropeanConcert!Inthosetimes,thearchitectsofthoseorders
followedtheiragreements,oratleasttheydidnotwanttobeblamed
fornotfollowingthem.3NowtheKremlinwantstohavetherightto
interprettherules.TheRussianrulingcorporationalsowantstohave
thepossibilityofinfluencingtheWestfrominsideoftheWestern
communityandusingallbenefitsofglobalizationandengagement.Global
OrderalaRusse!Machiavellilookslikeaschoolboycomparedtothe
Kremlin'stechnologists.
TheworldordertheKremlinofferstodayisevenmoreambivalentthan
thepost-communistworld,butthisisadifferenttypeofambivalence
thatreliesonthereadinessoftheilliberalactorforcoercive
pressure.ThefactthatMerkelandHollandetacitlyacceptedRussiaas
bothanintruderandamoderatorintheconflictoverUkrainegavethe
KremlintheimpressionthattheWestwouldsoonerorlaterendorsethe
approachithasbeenseeking.
Moscow'sSyrianadventuremerelyreinforcesthispattern,whichisbased
onanassumption(orbelief)thattheWest-especiallyEurope-willbe
forcedintheendtoplaytheKremlin'sgame.AsSergeiLavrovstressed
attheMunichSecurityconferenceinFebruary2016,theWesternpartners
aremoving"towardourunderstanding,"andthisis"veryencouraging."4
WelcometotheWorldofFuzziness!
Canthischimeralive?AsAndrewWoodwrote,anynewsecurity
architecture"wouldrequiresomecommonunderstandingoftheunderlying
facts".But"thatisnowabsentbetweenRussiaandtheWest".Besides,
Woodadds,suchconstruction"wouldalsorequiresomedegreeof
confidencebetweentheleadersofcountiestryingtobuildsucha
system,andthattooisnowabsent."
Butwhataboutthepragmatists'refrain,theonethattheyhavebeen
singingevenloudersinceRussia'sSyriaforay,about"common
interests"?BoboLo,associatefellowatChathamHouse,respondsto
thosewho"deludethemselves"thattheyshare"commoninterests"with
theKremlin:"Thedivergenceismuchmorefundamentalanddeeprooted.
NotonlyistheredisagreementoverRussia'sroleintheworld:Thereis
awideningchasmonglobalgovernance,internationallaw,andevenon
whatconstitutesstatebehavior."EventheWesternpragmatists,recently
staunchsupportersofjoint"strategicvision,"admit,"Weinterpret
differentlykeyprinciplessuchassovereignty,territorialintegrity,
andself-determination:wedifferoverwhatconstitutesthelegitimate
useofforcewedisagreeaboutlegitimacyofsphereofinfluence....
Toughcompetitionwasandremainsinevitable."Ithasbeenapparentfor
sometime,hasn'tit?
TheKremlin'stoolkithasmanyinstrumentstopursueitsagenda.One
hastobepreparedfortheKremlintosayonethingandmeananother,or
tomeannothingatall.Oldsymbolsandpatternsareinterpretedby
Moscowaccordingtoitscurrentgoals,aswithitsreferencestothe
"Yaltaarrangement."
Moreover,theKremlinisreadytobreakchina.ThisishowtheGerman
historianKarlSchlogelinterpretedPutin'sbehavior,"'Idon'twantto
acceptyouroldrulesofthegame'-andhehitsyouintheface."It's
enoughtoprovokeconsternationandshockamongWesternpartners
accustomedtopoliteness,correctness,anddiplomaticroutineoriented
towardcompromiseandmutualconcessions.
DoesPutinbelieveinfeasibilityofhisnew"GrandProject,"orishe
playingintheglobalcasino?Itdoesnotmatterwhathebelieves
anymorethepopularexercises,"WhatdoesPurtinthink"and"Whois
MisterPutin,"areawasteoftimebecausebothitsrhetoricandits
actionsaredesignedtoimitate,tomanipulate,andtohide
disorientationandhelplessness.I'llbettheKremlintechnologists
wouldloveustocontinueourendless"Putiniana"tryingtoguessthe
motivationsoftheKremlinbossinsteadofdeliberatingonthelogicof
theSystemandtheconsequencesofitsTriadsurvivaltactics.
Therearealotofvariablesthatremainunclear:thedegreetowhich
theKremlinunderstandsrealityandtheimplicationsofitsactionsits
readinessforself-restrainttheWest'sabilitytounderstandthe
Kremlin'sintentionsandputupaunitedfrontandfinally,thegravity
ofRussia'seconomicandsocialcrisisanditsdomesticimpact.Toomany
tippingpointsoreitherMoscow'sortheWest'sinabilitytodealwith
ambiguitycouldbringanotherconfrontationanymomentevenifthetwo
sidesinvolveddonotwantit.
Post-postmodernfuzzinesswouldbeacomfortableorderformanyinthe
West,too-forthosewholoathenormativedogmatism,orwhohavegrown
accustomedtotheseductive(andprofitable!)pragmatismofthepastfew
decades.ThisambiguousorderisthebestenvironmentforRussia's
rentierclasstomaintainitslinkswith"Londongrads"invarious
WesternstateswhilealsoinsulatingRussiansocietyfromWesternnorms
itwouldalsoallowtheRussianregimetobaseitsdomesticlegitimacy
onanti-WesternismwhilekeepingitsseatatthetableintheWest's
institutionsofinternationalgovernance.Thisambiguousworldwould
allowtheRussianSystemtocontaintheWestwithoutworryingaboutthe
threatofcontainmentandsubverttheWestfromwithin.Whatagreat
invention:lowcostsandhighrewards!TheColdWar,bycontrast,wasa
foolishstrategy.Muchbettertoblackmailyourfoeintoparticipating
inyoursurvivalproject.
True,therearetwotrapsintowhichRussiaandtheWestcouldfall
whilefollowingthisstrategy.Thefirstisthattherequirementsof
maintainingFortressRussiamaypreventtheKremlinfromachievinga
GrandBargainwiththeWest.Thesecondtrapis,fromtheWest'spoint
ofview,aCatch-22:AnybargainthatwouldallowtheKremlinto
interprettheglobalrulesofthegameasitchooseswouldunderminethe
coherenceandunityofWesternprinciples.Butrejectingthebargain
couldincitetheKremlinbulltowrecktheWesternChinashop.The
liberaldemocracieshardlyarereadyforaclashwithanuclearfoe.
Thisisadeadlock,andthereappeartobenowayout-atleastaslong
astheWestcontinuestodefendapost-ColdWarstatusquothatno
longerexists.
AreWeReadytoRethinkOutmodedIdeas?
IntheseessaysIhavetriedtopresentasnapshotofthestateof
expertopinioninstudiesofcontemporaryRussiaanditsrelationship
withtheWest,showinghowtheyrelatetoreality.Iregrettosaythat
25yearsagotheexpertsstruggledwithoutmuchsuccesstograspthenew
realitythesameistruetoday.
Thepragmatistshavesofarfailedtopredictandunderstandtheturn
thatRussiamadein2013-14anditsimplicationsforthecountry,for
internationalrelations,forEuropeansecurity,andevenforthe
trajectoryofliberalcivilization.We,thenormativists,havefailedto
alerttheworldofwhatwascoming."We'vebeensurprisedatevery
turn....WeweresurprisedwhentheywentintoCrimea,weweresurprised
whentheywentintoSyria,"saidSenateArmedServicesCommittee
ChairmanJohnMcCain(R-AZ).Iwouldadd:theworldwasequallybaffled
whentheKremlinannouncedthepulloutfromSyria.Surprisehasbeenthe
dominantcollectivereactiontoRussiasofar.FionaHill,directorof
theCenterontheU.S.andEuropeattheBrookingsInstitution:"Putin's
RussiapresentsauniquechallengetotheWestern-backedworldorder"
butrightnow"theWestdoesnotknowhowtorespond."
Weall(theRussianandtheWesternexperts)stillhaveavague
understandingofwhatthedeclineofRussia-thenuclearpetrostate,a
half-frozenempire,andoneofthearchitectsofglobalorder-might
bring.ItremainsunclearwhetherRussianrevisionismwilltriggerthe
creationofaglobalIlliberalInternational(therearesomesignsthat
wealreadyaredealingwithelementsofaglobalauthoritarian
offensive).5Ifitdoes,whatwilltheWesternresponsebe?Weareas
yetunpreparedforthecrisesofotherpost-Sovietsystemsandtheways
theywillaffectthesecurityandbalanceofforcesinEurasia.Itis
alsounclearhowunifiedandcapabletheWesternworldwillbewhenit
comestorespondingtothiscivilizationalandgeopoliticalchallenge.
Manyobserversseemtounderstandthatoldnarrativeshavebeen
exhausted.6Unfortunately,quiteafewamongusaretryingtoreinvent
themselvesmerelybyrecyclingoldrhetoric.We,thenormativists,have
beenunableasofyettofusethemoraldimensionandprincipleswith
thepoliticalinstrumentsapplicabletodecision-making-that,orwehave
beentootimidinourdebateswithopponents.
Fortheirpart,thepragmatistswhostilldominateRussianandEurasian
studiescontinuetobelievethatthemainactors-RussiaandtheWest-can
operatewithinthesamelogicalframeworkandcaninterpretthebalance
ofinterestsandviewconflictresolutionandcrisismanagementinthe
sameway.ButtheoperatorsoftheRussianSystemhaveanentirely
differentunderstandingofreality,andhavedifferentprioritiesand
meanstoachievethem.Asaresult,thepragmatistsfindthemselves
defendingeitherdefunctoroutdatedmodels,andtheiranalysisand
adviceoftenyieldtheoppositeofwhatthey'resupposedto.
Asamatteroffact,thepragmatistsnowfindthemselvesinamore
vulnerablepositionthanthatoftherealistsduringtheColdWar
period.Atthattime,theWestwaspreparedtocontaintheSovietsand
promoteitsprinciplesabroad,whiletheUSSR,atleastinitsfinal
stage,wasreadytoabidebyagreements.Today,however,the
pragmatists,whohaveborrowedtheconceptofbalanceofpowersand
otherrealistaxiomswhilerejectingthenormativedimension,arebeing
disarmedbyaRussianSystemthatisassertingitselfbybreaking
agreementsanddenyingthatithasdoneso,andbyimitatingprinciples.
Realismtodayinthepragmatists'handssoundslikeitcomesstraight
fromtheKremlin'splaybook.Infact,keypragmatistarguments-including
theirdogmason"commoninterests,"theneedtorespondtoRussia's
"grievances"andtheKremlin'sdemandsfor"equality",theirpivotto
geopolitics,theircallsto"accommodate"theKremlin"tosomedegree"
(towhatdegreeexactly?)andunderstanditsrighttohave"areasof
interests"-notonlyhavebeenhelpingtobuildafavorableenvironment
fortheRussianSystemofpersonalizedpowertheyhavealsobeen
disorientingtheKremlinandprovokingitsrecklessnessdomesticallyand
internationally,oftenendingindisasters(forRussiaaswell).Indeed,
thepragmatistsbearatleastpartialresponsibilityfortheKremlin's
latestactions,whicharebasedonthebeliefthattheWestwouldbe
readytoaccommodate-justasthepragmatistspromised!
Untilrecentlythepragmatistshavebeenbuildingtheirdiagnosisand
adviceonthebasisofRussianpollsthatshowskyrocketingapproval
ratingsforPutinandstrongsupportforhisanti-Westernpolicy.These
pollsaresupposedtojustifythepragmatistconclusion:"Youhaveto
takeRussia'asitis.'"ThismeansthatRussiansarehopelessandthey
can'taccepttheWesternnormsthatiswhytheWesthastoacquiesce.
ButhowwouldthepragmatistsexplainRussiatoday,whenRussiansare
growingrestlessandtheirsupportfortheauthoritieshasbegunto
wane?OneoutofeveryfourRussiansadmitstobeingafraidtovoicehis
(orher)truefeelingsaboutthesituationinRussia.Thiscouldmean
thatweshouldtaketheleader'shighapprovalratingswithagrainof
salt.ThepercentageofRussianswhothinkthatthecountryisheadedin
therightdirectionfellfrom64percentinJune2015to45percentin
January2016,andthenumberofRussianswhothinkthatRussiaisonthe
wrongtrackrosefrom22to34percent.Andthisisonlythebeginning
ofthetrend.Willthepragmatistscontinuetocallforaccommodatinga
regimethatislosingsupport?
Thepragmatistsstruggletoexplaintheparadoxes,orrathertraps,the
Kremlinhasbeenbuilding(oftenunexpectedlyforitself).Theyinsist
thatRussia'sactionsareultimatelygroundedinarationalbasis.But
how,then,doesoneexplaintheKremlin'spolitics,whichbrings
Russia'sisolationanddeepensitsinternalcrisis?Pragmatists
constantlyemphasize"theobjectivity"oftheirapproach.Buthowcan
oneclaimtoexplainRussia'sbehaviorifonedismissestheimpactof
norms,history,traditions,domesticdevelopments,andevolutionof
thought?Howusefulisthis"objectivity,"whichboilsdowntoa
descriptiveapproachandclumsyattemptstohideone'sownposition?And
howcanone'sclaimtoprovideaccurateassessmentswhensuch
assessmentsarebasedondatacherry-pickedfrompro-Kremlinsourcesand
fromthepro-Kremlinpunditcommunity?
Indeed,thepragmatistshavetounderstandthattheirtoolkithas
outliveditsusefulnessandisnolongerpersuasive.Buttheytryhard
toreinventshopwornaxioms,evenborrowingfromotherseeminglyalien
ideologicalandphilosophicalarsenals,creatinganunusualmix.The
latestexampleisthevoodoothatKissingerdemonstratedduringhislast
visittoMoscow,whenhehadhisritualmeetingwithPutinanddelivered
alecturethatwaswarmlyreceivedbythepro-Kremlingathering.7
TheRealpolitikgurupresentedtotallyfalseexplanationoftherootsof
thepresentconfrontation,whichallegedlywascausedby"thememoryof
thefirstpost-Sovietdecade,whenRussiasufferedastaggering
socio-economicandpoliticalcrisis,andtheU.S.enjoyeditslongest
periodofuninterruptedeconomicexpansion."This"memory"ofcrisis
duringtheAmericansuccessaccordingtoKissinger"causedallother
policydifferences."Ifthislogiciscorrect,thensoonweshould
anticipateaconfrontationbetweenEurope,whichisexperiencingthe
worstcrisisinitshistory,andAmerica,whichisdoingprettywell!
ButthejewelofKissingerianaisanotheridea.Kissingerarguesthat
thekeygoaltodayistofindacompromisebetweentheAmerican
(Western)perceptionoftheworld,whichreliesonlawsandrules,and
theRussianperception,whichhecalls"geopolitical,"avoidingany
mentionthatthisperceptionrejectstheruleoflaw."Thechallengeof
ourperiodistomergethetwoperspectives-thelegalandthe
geopolitical-inacoherentconcept,"arguestheguru.Thismeansmerging
ruleoflawprincipleswithsubjugationprinciples.Doestheauthorofa
new"philosophicalproblem"believeinthefeasibilityofhissolution?
HemayhaveforgottenhowtheattemptsofWesternandSoviet
intellectualstofindgroundsfortheirdreamof"convergence"of
capitalismandsocialisminthe1960sended.
Todaytheideaofnew"convergence"couldbringcertaindividendstothe
sidesimitatingthe"merger."Butwhatwoulditsstrategicconsequences
be?Itwoulddefinitelyhelptheilliberalsystemtolimpalongusing
theresourcesoftheWest,anditwouldalsounderminetheWest's
sustainabilityandresilience.Thatiswhythepro-Kremlinaudience
applaudedKissinger'slectureinMoscow.ThatiswhytheKremlinwill
continueits"coercivedating,"hopingthattheWestwillacceptthe
"merger."Willitreally?Iwouldremindyouthatthepreviousattempts
oftheWesternelitestoacquiescetotheRussianSystemhavenot
preventedthecurrentconfrontationbecausetheWestfailedto
understandonetruth:Intheilliberalmindset,everyconcessionmeans
backtracking,creatingadesiretopressthedemandsevenfurther.Do
thepragmatistsunderstandthattheirtacticsofacquiescenceerasethe
"redlines"forilliberalregimes,provokingrecklessbehaviorthat
otherwisetheywouldnotrisk?
TheWest'spunditclasshastorethinkquiteafewothermythsthatit
persistsinclingingto.OneofthemisthebeliefthattheWestern
expansionoftradeandeconomicrelationswithilliberalstateswill
bringabouttheirdemocraticchange(thepolicyGermanyhasbeen
pursuingfordecades).AsHannesAdomeit,aBoschPublicPolicyFellow
withtheTransatlanticAcademy,pointsout,thistradeandeconomic
expansion"canservetosolidifyanauthoritariansystemratherthanact
asdriverfordemocratizationandliberalization."
ExchangeanddialoguewiththeWestandslogansabout"engagement"also
helpilliberalactors,whoaremoreastuteaboutusingthemfortheir
ownpurposes.Maybethepragmatistsshouldtrytothinkaboutwhythis
happensbeforetheystartchantingtheirfavoritesong:Weneedto
broadentheexchange!Thistimetheexchangeagendaisdifferent:
insteadofbuildingacommon"strategicvision,"pragmatistssuggest
"managingtheRussia-Westernconflict"bymeansof"trustedindividuals
onbothsides"capableofengaginginconfidentialdialogueson
contentioustopics.Isn'tithilarious?Thosewhohavefailedtopredict
andunderstandtodaywantto"manage"theresultsoftheirfailures.
Finally,whenhavethepragmatistsaskedthemselveswhytheir
assessmentshavemissedthemark?Haveanyamongthemadmittedbeing
wrong?This"comingout"wouldbeveryhelpfulforrestoringthe
reputationoftheexpertcommunity.
Theinabilityofthepoliticalandexpertcommunitytorespondtonew
challengesoftencreatesanurgetomovethe"unsolvable"problemtothe
backburner,ortocomeupwithanimitationsolution.Thisiswhatis
happeningtodaywiththecrisisoverUkraine.Thiscrisis,despiteits
presentde-escalation,willcontinuetohaveatremendousimpacton
Europeansecurity,thegeopoliticallandscape,andthecivilizational
clashbetweentheWestandtheIlliberalInternational.Boththe
UkrainiansandtheWesthavebeenforcedtoreconcilethemselvestoa
illusorysolution(soasnottoirritateMoscow)thatdisorientsthe
world,undermineslegalframeworks,anddemoralizesWesternandglobal
institutions.Italsocreatesthepossibilitythatthesameprocessof
buildingamechanismforpretendingwillbeplayedoutelsewhere(some
pragmatistshavesuggestedthatweshouldusetheMinsk-2formulato
solvetheSyriacrisis),sincetheglobalsystemhasshownthatitis
notpreparedtoreacttogeopoliticalambiguityandimitation.
Duetoitscivilizational,normativedimension,theclashbetweenRussia
andtheWestinUkraineisboundtoinfluencetheapproachesthatboth
sidestaketofutureproblems.Let'snotdeceiveourselvesthatweare
dealingwithaphenomenonthatwillgoawayassoonPutincomestohis
sensesorleavesoffice,orwhenMoscowandtheWestbegintocooperate
somewhereelse.Letmereiterate:Wearedealingwiththelogicofa
particularcivilization-onewhosesurvivalresourcesaredwindlingand
whosepoliticalclassispowerlesstotransformthesystem-thatwill
continuetoreenergizeitselfthroughtheenemysearch(evenasit
cooperateswiththisenemy).
Let'sgivetheKremlinsomecredit:Today,bydemonstratingits
assertivenessandachievingtacticalgains,theRussianrulershave
shownusthattheWestneedstofocusmoreonitsownoutmoded
mechanismsandlackofstrategicvector.TheKremlinhasshowntheWest
thatitneedstorenewtheliberaldemocraticprinciplesthathavebeen
discreditedbyideologicalfuzzinessandaccommodation.
Giventhefailuresoftheexpertcommunity,canthenormativistsandthe
pragmatistsgettogetherforadiscussionaimedatclarifyingtheir
respectivepositions-iffornootherreason,thenatleastforthesake
ofsavingthereputationoftheexpertcommunity?Isthisarealistic
goal?Idon'thaveananswertothisquestionrightnow.
Inanycase,theWestneedstounderstandthattheRussianSystemis
willingtofightforitssurvival,andthatthisfightwilltakevarious
forms.Themosteffectiveformcouldbetotakeadvantageofthe
globalizationandintegrationoftheRussianrentierclassintothe
Westerncommunity,aswellasWesternpolitical,intellectual,and
expertweaknesses.It'stimefortheWesttowakeitselffromitsdreams
of"engagement."PullingoldColdWarrecipesoutoftheboxwon'thelp
eitherweliveinadifferentrealitytoday.Bydrudgingupobsolete
models,the"mythologists"couldtemporarilywintheday,butonlyat
thecostofbeingshockedbydevelopmentsitdidnotpredict.
Onethingisclear:arrivingatarealistic(notaccommodationist)
understandingofRussia'strajectory-perhapsthemainchallengeofthe
21stcentury-isimpossiblewithoutsomeseriousself-reflectiononthe
partoftheRussiaexpertcommunity.
Footnotes
1TheRussianpro-KremlinobserverVladimirFrolovadmitsthatPutin's
"SyrianGambit"wasaimedattransformingtherelationshipwiththeWest
andhelpingto"regainRussia'srightfulplaceasaglobalpower."But
evenapro-Kremlinobserverhastoacknowledgethata"newEntente
CordialebetweenRussiaandtheWestisunlikely."
2AfterPutinannouncedthepartialwithdrawal,thecommanderofthe
RussianforcesinSyria,GeneralAlexanderDvornikov,admittedthatthe
Russian"spetznaz"hasbeenoperatinginSyriaandwillcontinuetooperate.
3UlrichSpecksaysthattheinternationalsystemtheKremlinistrying
toenforce"recallsthe1930s,whenMussolini,Hitler,andStalinwere
tryingtoreplacetheexistinginternationalorderwithanewsystem
basedontheideathatonlymightmakesright-aDarwinistsystem
deprivedofeverytraditionalethicalorlegalconstraint."
4TheRussianparticipationintheAlepposiege,whichbroughtcollapse
oftheGenevapeaceprocess,wasenforcementoftheKremlin's"peace
plan"forSyria.
5Seediscussionofthe"AuthoritarianResurgence"intheJournalof
Democracy(January2015).
6SomeRussianpragmatistshavestartedtoexpressconcernsregarding
theKremlin'spolicy.FiodorLukianov,praisingRussiandiplomacy,says,
"[E]vengooddiplomatscan'tmasklackofpurposeintheforeignpolicy."
7AEI'sGaryJ.SchmittcommentedonKissinger'sapproachinhislecture
inMoscow,"Kissinger's'realist'approachisneitherrealisticinits
descriptionoftheproblemsintherelationshipnorinthepathto
addressthem."AlexMotyl,aprofessorofpoliticalscienceatRutgers
University-Newark,waseventougher,sayingthatKissinger'srecently
articulatedvisionforU.S.-Russiarelations"consistsoflargeswaths
ofboilerplatelanguageandseveraldisingenuousargumentsdemonstrating
thatthearchitectofdtentehasnoideahowtofixwhatPutinhasbroken."
#25
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines
www.rbth.ru
April21,2016
Atacrossroads:Theanxietiesofaglobalizedworld
InanRBTHexclusive,formerSovietleaderMikhailGorbachevwrites
abouttheinternationalcrisisofleadershipandthechallengesfacing
politiciansaroundtheworldinatimeofmoraluncertaintyandlackof
unityandvisionforthefuture.
MIKHAILGORBACHEV,SPECIALTORBTH
Whereistheglobalworldheadinginthe21stcentury?Peopleareasking
thisquestiontodaywithincreasinganxiety.AndIamoneofthem.
Withmyfriend,thelateHans-DietrichGenscher[foreignministerand
vicechancellorofGermanyfrom1974-1992-RBTH],weoftenaskedthe
followingquestion:Whatwentwrong?Ourgeneration-agenerationof
politicianswhosejointeffortscontributedtoendingtheColdWar-
carriedoutitsmission.Butthenwhyistoday'sworldunquiet,unjust
andmilitarized?
Itseemedthattheendoftheglobalconfrontationandtheunprecedented
possibilitiesofnewtechnologies,primarilyinformational,shouldhave
giventheworldanewbreath,makingeachindividual'slifebetter.But
realityhasturnedoutdifferently.
Thisdoesnothaveaneasyexplanation.Ioftenusedtosaythat
politicianswerenotuptopar.Thosewhodeclaredthevictoryofthe
WestintheColdWar,whorefusedtobuildanew,equitablesecurity
system,bearalargeportionoftheresponsibilityforthecurrentstate
oftheworld.Triumphalismisabadadvisorinworldaffairs.
Butthatisnottheonlyproblem.Thenewglobalworldisstillnot
understoodandinterpreted.Itneedsnewrulesofconduct,anew
morality.Buttheworldleaders,apparently,cannotgraspthis.
Ithinkthathereliesthemainreasonfortoday's"globaltroubles."
Whowonandwholostintheglobalworld?
Peopleareworriedaboutthetensionininternationalaffairs,butthey
arenolessworriedabouttheirownsituation,theirownfuture.Thisis
allinterrelated.
Eveninthemostdevelopedcountriesthemajority(themiddleclassis
thefoundationofeverysuccessfullydevelopingsociety)expressesits
dissatisfactionwithitslife.Votersaremorefrequentlysupporting
populistpoliticianswhoproposeapparentlysimplebutinreality
dangeroussolutions.
However,irresponsiblefinancialstructureshavewelladaptedtoand
benefitedfromglobalization,allblowing"soapbubbles"andmaking
billionsliterallyfromtheair.Thesebillionsfindtheirwayintoa
narrowcircleofpeoplewhohidethemfromtaxation.Wehavejustseen
newexamplesofthis.Butthisisjustthetipoftheiceberg.
Allthiswithoutmentioningthefactthatorganizedcrimestructures,
drugdealers,armsdealers,groupsprofitingfrommassivemigrantflows,
cybercriminalsandmostimportantly,terrorists,allfeelvery
comfortableintheglobalworld.
Politicalcrisis,leadershipcrisis
Worldpoliticshasstillnotfoundaneffectivesolutionforanyoneof
theseproblems.Meanwhile,anewroundofthearmsracehasbegun,the
ecologicalcrisisisgettingworseandthegapbetweenrichandpoor
countriesisgrowing,aswellasbetweentherichandthepoorwithin
individualcountries.Thesearetheproblemsthatmustbeonthetopof
theworld'sagenda.Buttheyarenotbeingsolved.Deadendsareeverywhere.
Andyetitwouldseemthattherearepossibilitiestoovercomethem,as
wellasmechanisms-thosethathaveexistedforalongtime,suchas
theUN,andnewones,suchastheG20,whichwascreatedtomeetthenew
challenges.Buthardlyanyonecansaythattheyhavebeensuccessful.
Theyarealwayslate,theyarealwaysbehind.
Wearefacedwithaleadershipcrisis,bothinternationalandnational.
Politiciansarejustoccupiedwith"puttingoutfires,"solvingthe
day'sproblems,crisesandconflicts.
Nooneisarguing.Theymustbesolved.Andinthelastweekstherehave
beensomepositivebreakthroughs.
ThereisdialogueonSyria.Eventhoughfornowitsbiggestparticipants
areexternalcountries,primarilytheU.S.andRussia.Butthishas
alreadyhelpedtoloosenthetensionsbetweenRussiaandtheWest.
Ifthistrendisdevelopeditcanthenbeappliedtootherspheresof
relations.Butthiswillbealengthyandcomplicatedprocess.Trusthas
beengreatlydamaged.
Ontheotherhand,therehavebeennobreakthroughstosolvingthe
Ukrainiancrisis.Thecurrentregulatorymechanismsareworkingpoorly.
Thereistheimpressionthatthemechanismsarebecomingaroutine.We
shouldnotabandonthemechanisms(theMinskagreements,theNormandy
Four).Butevidentlytheyneedtobecompletedandstimulatedtowork.
PossiblythroughdiscussionsintheUNSecurityCouncilorother
mechanismswiththeparticipationofRussiaandtheU.S.
WecannotleavetheUkrainiancrisisasanabscess,creatingafever
throughoutEuropeandtheworld.Europemaynotwithstandanotherfrozen
conflict.IagainaskpresidentsObamaandPutin(Ididthisforthe
firsttimein2014)tomeetanddiscussthiscontinuingcrisis.
Lookingfartherahead
Butevenifweareabletoovercometheacutecurrentcrisis,itwillbe
animportantbutonlyafirststeptosolvingamuchmorecomplex
problem:learninghowtoliveinaglobalworld.
Withoutaglobalcontextitisimpossibletounderstandthereasonsfor
andconsequencesofthecurrentconflictsanddeveloparenewedagenda
andresourcesforsolvingtheproblemsthatwillinevitablyariseinthe
world.
Intheworldpolicyagendathemostimportantthingistocorrectly
understandthepriorities.
TheRussell-EinsteinManifesto,[formerSwedishPrimeMinister]Olof
Palme'sideasoncontemporarysecurity,JohnKennedy'sspeechon"the
worldforeveryone,"theUSSRandtheU.S.GenevaDeclarationsin1985
(confirmedbyReykjavikandtheagreementstostopthenucleararms
race)-thesewereall"proposals"tocreatesuchanagenda,ontopof
whichwouldbeplacedhumanity'smainproblems.
Asoftodaytheseare:
-thecontinuousproblemofweaponsofmassdestruction,armsraces,the
militarizationofworldpolitics
-theproblemofpovertyandtheunderdevelopmentofanenormouspartof
humanity
-theecologicalchallenge,climatechange
-terrorism
Otheracuteproblemsaremassmigration,xenophobiaandreligious
intolerance,andtheproblemofco-existenceofvariouscivilizations.
Thecommondenominatorofalltheseproblems:notoneofthemcanbe
solvedmilitarily.
Tosaythatitisnecessarytouniteeffortswouldseemlikeanaxiom.
Butfornowdisunityandtheinabilitytoacttogetherareprevailing.
Governmentsandtheirleadersbearthemainresponsibilityforsucha
stateofaffairs.Theglobalworldnowhasotherparticipantsinworld
processes:civilsocietyorganizations,business,thescientific
community,religiousassociations.Buttheroleandresponsibilityof
governments,theirleadersandintergovernmentalorganizationsmust
remaindecisive.
Politicsandmorality:Therulesofconduct
Anotherimperativefortoday'sglobalworldisthenecessitytounite
politicsandmorality.
Thisisabiganddifficultproblem.Itcannotbesolvedinonefell
swoop.Butifwedonotfacethisproblemandworkassiduouslyto
solvingit,theworldwillbedestinedtoexperiencenewconflictsand
unsolvablecontradictions.
"Doublestandards"areespeciallydangerousintheglobalworld.All
possibilitiesforgovernmentstosupport(outoftheirinterests)
terroristandextremistgroupsmustbeexcluded,justlikesupportfor
anymovementpromoting"anarmedfight"tooverthrowlegalgovernments.
Relationsbetweengovernmentsintheglobalworldmustberegulatednot
onlybyinternationallegalnorms,butalsobycertainrulesofconduct
thatarebasedonprinciplesofhumanmorality.
These"rulesofconduct"mustincluderestraint,considerationof
interestsofallsides,consultationandmediationwhenthesituation
intensifiesandthereisathreatofacrisis.Iamconvincedthatit
couldhavebeenpossibletoavoidtheUkrainianandSyriancrisesif
theirdirectparticipantsandespeciallytheexternalpartieshadbeen
guidedbysuchrulesofconduct.
Ibelievethatrulesofconduct,asortofethicalcode,arealsoneeded
forthemassmedia.Theyarealsopartlytoblame.Oftentheyexcite
passionsandsullytheinformationalatmosphere.Insteadofhelpingto
preventandstopconflicts,theypracticallyparticipateinfuellingthem.
ThemostimportantthingthatIwanttosayisthatitisnecessaryto
puttheissuesoftherenewedagenda,thecombinationofmoralityand
politics,andtherulesofconductinaglobalworldatthecenterof
theattentionofgovernmentsandtheworld'scivilsociety.
Russia'srole
IamconvincedthatRussia'sroleinovercomingtheglobalpolitical
crisiscanandmustbeimportantandpositive.ItistimefortheWest
torenounceitsattemptstoisolateRussia.Thishasneverproduced
results."Personalsanctions"willdefinitelynotyieldanyfruit
either.Theyshouldbeliftedfirst.Otherwisetherewillbeno
dialogue,therewillbenochancestorestoretrust.
Nooneshouldexpectthatafterencounteringeconomicdifficulties
Russiawillacceptitssecondaryroleintheworld.Ifthishappenedno
onewouldbenefit.What'smore,everyonewouldonlylosefromanewCold
War.
Acoupleofdaysago,duringhis"DirectLine"ontelevision,Vladimir
PutinstatedhisintentiontonormalizerelationswiththeWest.But
willourpartnersbeabletoreadjusttoamoreconstructiveapproach?
Thisisstillunclear,butIcallonthemtodoso.
Currentlyweareinaverydelicatemoment.Wemustthrowawayour
emotionsandpropagandisticexcess.Seriousclaimscanberaisedagainst
today'sgenerationofimportantleaders.Butthisgenerationstillhas
theopportunitytobementionedwithdignityinthehistorybooks.And
itwouldbeabigmistakenottotakeadvantageofthisopportunity.
#26
Irrussianality
http://irrussianality.wordpress.com
LEGALBLOWBACK
ByPaulRobinson
UniversityofOttawa
Lawfare,accordingtoWikipedia,is'theillegitimateuseofdomesticor
internationallawwiththeintentionofdamaginganopponent,winninga
publicrelationsvictory,financiallycripplinganopponent,ortyingup
theopponent'stime.'Itishighlyquestionablewhatwouldconstitutean
'illegitimateuseofthelaw',butwhatistrueisthatcertainpeople
areturningtothecourtsasapoliticaltool,andthatsomecourtsseem
willingtohelpthembymakingwhatseemtobehighlypoliticized
judgements.
InMarchofthisyear,forinstance,aUScourtorderedIrantopay
$10.5billionindamagestorelativesofvictimsofthe11September
2001terroristattacksinNewYorkandWashington.AndtodaytheUS
SupremeCourtdeterminedthatIranmustpayalmost$2billionto
relativesofMarineswhodiedinanattackontheirbaseinBeirutin
1983.Yetinaninterviewthisweek,USpresidentBarackObamaopposed
attemptstosueSaudiArabiaforitsallegedroleinthe9/11attacks.
Obamadeclared:'Ifweopenupthepossibilitythatindividualsinthe
UnitedStatescanroutinelystartsuingothergovernments,thenweare
alsoopeninguptheUnitedStatestobeingcontinuallysuedby
individualsinothercountries.'Thusitiso.k.forAmericanstosue
Iranfor$10.5billionfor9/11,eventhoughIranwasnotresponsible,
butnoto.k.tosueSaudiArabia,eventhoughalinkismuchmorelikely.
ThisarbitrarinesshasnotpassedRussiansby.Russianofficialswere
particularlyriledbythe2014decisionofaDutchcourttoaward$50
billionindamagestoformershareholdersoftheoilfirmYukosforthe
allegedlyillegalseizureoftheirassets,despitethefactthatthe
RussianFederationhadnotratifiedthetreatywhichwasbeingusedto
passjudgementagainstit.Inamuchdiscussedarticlethisweek,
AleksandrBastrykin,headoftheInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussian
Federation,expressedhisfrustration,declaring:
"ClearexamplesarethedecisionsontheYukosaffair,thedecisionon
themurderofformerFSBofficerAleksandrLitvinenko,thereportofthe
Dutchsecuritycouncilontheresultsoftheresearchintotheshooting
downofMalaysianBoeingMH17,theinquirybytheAmericanFBIintothe
legitimacyoftheawardoftherighttoholdtheWorldCuptoRussiaand
Qatarin2018and2022,thekidnappingandforciblerenditiontotheUSA
andsentencingtoalongtermofimprisonmentofourcitizensViktor
BoutandKonstantinIaroshenko,etc."
Bastrykinisnotaloneinhisfrustration.Ina2014articleinthe
ReviewofCentralandEastEuropeanLaw,RussianlegalscholarMikhail
Antonovnotesthatdisenchantmentwiththeapplicationofinternational
humanitarianlawhasdrivenRussianjuriststobecomeincreasingly
conservativeanddeterminedtodefendRussiansovereignty.Thistrend
culminatedthisweekinadecisionbytheRussianConstitutionalCourt
toignoreademandbytheEuropeanCourtofHumanRights(ECHR)that
prisonersshouldbeallowedtovoteinelections.AccordingtoRT,this
'wasthefirstimplementationofalawintroducedinDecember2015.This
actallowstheConstitutionalCourttooverrulethedecisionsof
internationalcourtsifsuchdecisionscontradicttheprincipleof
supremacyoftheRussianConstitution.'
TodateRussiahashadanexcellentrecordinimplementingECHR
decisions-farbetterinfactthanmanyWesternEuropeancountries.
ThisreflectedtheimportancegiventotheruleoflawbytheRussian
authorities.IbelievethattheDecember2015lawmentionedaboveand
theConstitutionalCourt'sdecisionarethereforestepsinthewrong
direction.Buttheyareperhapsinevitableconsequencesofwhatisseen
asthebiasedimplementationofinternationallaw-legal'blowback',if
youlike.
Fortunately,asignthatthingsmightbechangingcamethisweekwith
anothercourtdecision-thistimebyanotherDutchcourt,overturning
theoutcomeofthe2014Yukoscase.TheUSSupremeCourt'sjudgement
againstIransuggeststhattheAmericansarelosingnoneoftheir
appetitefor'lawfare',buttheYukoscasesuggeststhatperhapsthe
Europeansare.
#27
ChristianScienceMonitor
April20,2016
Revivalofdiplomacy?Ukraine,Russiamakeprogressonprisonerswap.
TheexchangeofUkrainianhelicopterpilotNadiyaSavchenkofortwo
Russianservicemenappearstobemovingahead.Butthedealcouldalso
reopenthequestionofjusthowinvolvedRussiaiswithUkraine's
easternrebellion.
ByFredWeir,Correspondent
MOSCOW-AdealappearstobeintheworksbetweenMoscowandKievto
exchangecapturedUkrainianhelicopterpilotNadiyaSavchenko,recently
sentencedto22yearsinaRussianprison,fortwoRussianservicemen
convictedof"terrorism"inaKievcourtthisweek.
Butwhiletheapparentagreementoffersararepointoflightinthe
frayedrelationshipbetweenthetwocountries,italsocouldreignite
thequestionofjusthowinvolvedRussiahasbeenandcontinuestobein
therestiveDonbassregionofUkraine.
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkoannouncedthatan"algorithm"had
beenagreedtofacilitatethepossibleexchangeofMs.Savchenko,which
couldhappeninthenextfewdays.Mr.PoroshenkoandRussianPresident
VladimirPutinheldareportedlyconstructivetelephoneconversation
abouttheprospectiveswap,amarkedreturntodiplomacyinbilateral
relationsaftertwoyearsofwar,bothhotandcold.
TherepatriationofSavchenko,whosedefianceofherRussiancaptorshas
earnedhernationalherostatusandaplaceintheUkrainianparliament,
wouldremoveoneofthemostprominentirritantsinthe"information
war"betweenthetwo.ItmayalsohelptoimproveRussia'simagein
Europe,wheresupportforrenewinganti-MoscowsanctionsinJulyis
alreadylookingshaky.Butitcomesastheconflictisonceagain
escalatingalongthebattlefrontineasternUkraine.
Savchenko,ahelicopterpilotwholefttheUkrainianArmytofightwith
apro-Kievvolunteerbattaliontwoyearsago,saysshewascapturedon
thebattlefieldbyrebelforcesandillegallytransportedtoRussia,
whereshewaschargedwiththemurderoftwoRussianjournalists.She
deniedthecharges,putupasteadyshowofdefianceinthecourtroom
andliterallylaughedwhenthejudgereadouthersentence.Shealso
launchedahungerstrike,whichshesuspendedonTuesdaywhenMr.
Poroshenkopersonallycalledandaskedhertodoso.
RussiaintheDonbass
ThecircumstancesaroundthetwoRussians,AlexanderAlexandrovand
YevgenyYerofeyev,whowerecapturedincombatineastUkrainelast
year,aremurkierthanthosearoundSavchenko.
UkrainianexpertsinsistthattheKremlin'swillingnesstonegotiatefor
themisproofthattheywereregularRussiantroops,partofalarge
invadingforcethattoreUkraineapartfollowingtheMaidanRevolution
inearly2014,evenasMoscowdeniedanydirectinvolvement.Thetwomen
initiallyadmittedtobeingoperativesoftheGRU,Russianmilitary
intelligence,butlaterretractedthoseconfessionsandsaidtheywere
justex-military"volunteers"withtheUkrainianrebels.
TheirreturntoRussiaundertheproposeddealwillprobablyreignite
thatvexingquestion.WhilethestandardUkrainiannarrativearguesthat
separatismintheeasternregionofDonbassfollowingtheMaidan
RevolutionwasentirelyMoscow-made,theactualextentofRussian
interventionhasprovenextremelydifficulttopindown.AndRussian
expertsarguethatthecaseofMr.AlexandrovandMr.Yerofeyevisno
smokinggun.
"Ofcoursethereisnowaythatragtagrebelarmycouldhavedefeated
theUkrainianforcesinthosedecisivebattlesaroundDonetskin2014
andearly2015withoutRussianhelp,"saysSergeiStrokan,international
affairscolumnistfortheMoscowdailyKommersant."ButtheRussianside
hasdevelopedthislegalformula,whichsaysthatlotsofRussian
'volunteers'crossedovertohelptherebels,butnoregularRussian
troops."
"Youmaysayit'sadistinctionwithoutadifference,butitlets
Russianauthoritiesoffthehook,"saysMr.Strokan."Arguingoverit
hasalreadyproventobeadeadend."
Politicalwins
Bothcaseshaveprovenproblematicintheirexecution.TheSavchenko
trialwasperceivedaroundtheworldaspoliticallymotivated,andhuman
rightsexpertssayitwasriddledwithirregularities.Thetrialof
AlexandrovandYerofeyevwasmarredbythegrislyabductionandmurder
ofAlexandrov'slawyer,presumablybyUkrainianultra-nationalists.
Assuch,theresolutionsaswapwouldbringwilllikelybenefitboth
sides-atleastpolitically.
"PutinshouldbegladtogetridofSavchenko,becausehercase
attractedtoomuchattentionandshebecameasymbolofUkrainian
resistance,"saysViktorNebozhenko,directoroftheindependent
UkrainianBarometersociologicalagencyinKiev."Bothpresidentswill
gainabigPRvictoryfromthis.InRussiatheywilllaunchabig
campaigndeclaring'weneverleaveourpeoplebehind,'andthesame
thingwillhappenhere[inUkraine].Ontheeasternfront,however,it
won'tchangeathing.Peoplewillgoondyingeveryday."
#28
BostonGlobe
April20,2016
PopeFrancis,askmoreforUkraine
ByLevGolinkin
LevGolinkinistheauthorof"ABackpack,aBear,andEightCratesof
Vodka."
ThefewjournalistswhostillreportfromeasternUkraineinvariably
describeitasaninvisiblecatastrophe.It'sanaptoxymoron.First,a
regionthesizeofConnecticut,rightinthemiddleofEurope,was
turnedintoanapocalypticwastelandwhere3millionciviliansremain
cut-offfrombasicnecessities.Then,itwaspromptlyforgotten.
PopeFrancisdecidedtochangematters.OnApril3,thepontiffissueda
rareandfar-rangingcall,earmarkingmoneycollectedbyEuropean
churchesduringtheApril24Sundayservicesforhumanitarianaidfor
victimsofabrutalandongoingconflict.Yet,whiletheattentionis
direlyneeded,it'snotenough.CatholicsinNorthAmerica-reallyall
Americans-mustalsobecalledupontohelp.
Twoyearsagothismonth,warbrokeoutbetweenKievandRussian-backed
rebelsintheDonbassminingregionofeasternUkraine.Shortly
thereafter,Donbass'chiefexportwentfromcoaltowarcrimes.
Ukraine'sindustrialheartlandwastransformedintoadevelopingnation.
Theconditionsareunfathomable.Inthe21stcentury,thereare
outbreaksoftuberculosisandHIVbecauseKievbattalionsblocked
medicalsuppliesfromreachingtherebel-heldareaswhiletherebels
expelledDoctorsWithoutBordersonchargesofbeingspies.Inthe
middleofEurope,elementaryschoolsnowhaveclassesonrecognizing
explosives.NeithertherebelsnorKievforcesbotheredmarking
minefields,andchildrenkeepgettingblownapart.Indiscriminate
shellingofcivilianareasdestroyedinfrastructurefrompowerplantsto
watertreatmentfacilities,leavinghundredsofthousandswithout
drinkablewaterandelectricity.TheWorldFoodProgramjustadded
Ukraine-oncethebreadbasketofEurope-toitslistofcountriesin
desperateneedoffood.UkraineistheonlyEuropeannationonalist
dominatedbytheMiddleEastandsub-SaharanAfrica.
HighlyconservativeUnitedNationsestimatesplacethewar'stollat
morethan10,000casualties2millionrefugeesandinternally-displaced
personsandof3millionpeoplewhoremainintheconflictarea,nearly
halfareconsidered"highlyvulnerableandinneedofassistance."Many
areelderlyorthepoorwhohavenomeanstoflee.
Ordinarily,theeyesoftheWestwouldberivetedonUkraine,justas
theywereontheatrocitiesofYugoslaviainthe1990s.Butshortly
afterthewarbegan,afogofpropagandadescendedonDonbass,creating
achaosthatbecameimpenetrablefortheglobalmedia.
Kievofficiallydesignatedtheconflictan"anti-terroristoperation,"
orATO,andDonbassastheATOzone.MoscowpropagandapaintsallKiev
supportersas"neo-Nazis."Thetermseffectivelydehumanizedthe3
millioncivilianstrappedintheconflictzone:Neitherterroristsnor
neo-Nazisdeservemercy.
Accusationsandcounter-accusationsswirlingaroundUkrainetransformed
itfromaslaughteryardintoaquestionof"spheresofinfluence"
betweenRussiaandNATOora"standoff"betweenKievandMoscow.The
rareheadlinesoutofUkrainerecentlyfocusonwhichsideisviolating
thelatestcease-fireattempt,orthepoliticalsquabblesinKiev-not
theciviliansforwhomabduction,torture,landmines,starvation,and
murderarenowapartoflife.ItisasifMassachusettsandNewYork
engagedinascorched-earthwar,andnoonebotherstomentionthe
peopleofConnecticutcaughtin-between.
PopeFrancisaddressedthesituationintypicalJesuitfashion-he
quicklyslashedthroughthepolemicsofspheresandstandoffs,Nazisand
terrorists,andcalledonthefaithfultoaidthevictims.
Excepthecalledonthewrongcontinent.
ThepapalcollectionforUkraineextendstochurchesinEurope,butnot
NorthAmerica.Undernormalcircumstancesthiswouldmakesense,since
Europeanshaveageographicinterestinaidingtheirneighbors.The
problemtodayisthatCatholicstrongholdslikeItaly,France,and
AustriaarealreadystrainedtothebreakingpointbecauseoftheSyrian
migrantcrisis.It'shardtoexpectWesternEuropeanstofocuson
sufferinginUkrainewhentheyareconsumedbythebiggestinfluxof
humanitysinceWorldWarIIunfoldingintheirowncities.
TheparishesbestpoisedtocontributetotheVatican'sappealareon
thissideoftheAtlantic.Americanbishopshaveauniqueopportunityto
standinsolidaritywithEurope.AseparateUScollectionforUkraine
wouldallowBoston,Chicago,NewYork,andLosAngelestojoinPope
Francis'historicmissioncenteredonthatsacredtenetofbothreligion
andAmericandemocracy-protectingtheinnocent.Itwouldaidmillions
whoareneitherterroristsnorneo-Nazis,butcivilianswhoseonlysin
wasthemisfortuneoflivinginwhathasbecomeUkraine'smisery.
#29
Sputnik
April21,2016
Kremlin:RussiatoBeHappyIfUkraine'sAssociationWithEUYieldsSuccess
MOSCOW(Sputnik)-RussiawouldbehappyiftheEUAssociationAgreement
withUkraineyieldedanysortofsuccessforKiev,Kremlinspokesman
DmitryPeskovsaidThursday.
"OfcourseRussiaisinterestedthatitsneighborsarepredictable,
economicallyindependent,and,Iwouldsay,stableandflourishing.If
thisagreementhelpsUkrainetoreachsomesortofparameterinreaching
itsgoals,thenobviouslywewouldonlybehappy,"Peskovtoldjournalists.
However,iftheUkraine-EUAssociationAgreementhasnegativeeffectson
Russia,Moscowwilltakenecessarystepstobalancethesituation,
Peskovsaid.
"ThisisthetopicthatIthinkconcernstheEuropeanUnionandUkraine
toagreaterextent.Intheeconomicpart,asitcouldaffect
Russian-UkrainianrelationsandRussia'seconomicrelations,wewill,of
course,thoroughlymonitorpossiblenegativeimplications.Ifsuch
effectsappear,thenwewill,ofcourse,takethenecessarymeasuresof
balancingnature,"Peskovtoldreporters,speakingaboutthepossible
impactofEU-UkraineassociationontheirrelationswithRussia.
In2014,KievandBrusselssignedanagreementaimedatUkraine's
politicalassociationandeconomicintegrationintothebloc.The
agreementseekstocreateafreetradezonebetweenUkraineandthe28
EUmemberstates.
TheagreementhastoberatifiedbyalltheEUmemberstates.Bythe
momentithasbeenratifiedby27countriesexceptNetherlands.Dutch
citizensvotedagainstthedealattheadvisoryreferendum,however
country'slawmakersvotedagainstrefusingtoratifytheagreement.
#30
http://gordonhahn.com
April19,2016
The20April2014EasterAttack:AgainonRightSectorandtheMakingof
theUkrainianCivilWar
ByGordonM.Hahn
Theanti-MaidantakeoversofOGAsandothergovernmentbuildingsacross
DonetskandspreadingtoLuhanskfromApril12-14cameafterKievhad
beendiscussingpubliclyformorethanaweekitsintenttocarryoutan
'anti-terrorist'operationagainstwhatthenweremereprotestersin
restlessDonbass.Moreover,theanti-MaidantakeoversinMarchandearly
Apriltherewereinresponseto,andidenticalwiththepro-Maidan
takeoversofKievgovernmentbuildingsandregionalOGAsinwinter.The
Donbass'seventswereescalatinginresponsetoKiev'sactions.By
sundownon14April2014,actingUkrainianpresidentOleksandr
Turchynov'sdeadlineof6pmforthoseoccupyinggovernmentbuildingsin
theeasttoleavehadexpired.Donetsk'santi-Maidanprotestersand
armedrebelshadtakencontrolofsomegovernmentbuildingsinmany
citiesacrosstheoblast,includingArtemevsk,Druzhkivka(Druzhkovka),
Horlivka(Gorlovka),Kramatorsk,Makiivka(Makievka),Mariupol',
Slovyansk(Slavyansk),Yenakiieve(Yenakieve),andZhdanivka
(Zhdanovka).Bytheeveningofthe14thofAprilthefirstcasualtiesof
theATO-oneSBUofficerkilledandfivewoundedinSlavyansk-hadbeen
registeredwhenSBUspecialforcesattemptedtore-takesecurity
buildings.[1]ThousandsofUkrainianarmytroopsandlargely
neofascist-manned'volunteerbattalions'armedwithtanksandheavy
artilleryandsupportedbyairpowerwereonthemarcheast.Bythetime
Donbassiansawokeonthemorningofthe15th,Kiev's'anti-terroroist'
operation(ATO)wasalreadyinaction.Thatdayaforceof500Ukrainian
soldiers,20APCs,and2helicoptersdescendedonSlavyansk.[2]
Ukraine'scivilwarhadbegun.Certainly,MaidanKiev'scivilwaror
'ATO'couldnothavebeenareactiontoaRussianinvasionor
intervention.EventheSBUstatedthattheinfamousandover-credited
Girkin-StrelkovhadonlyarrivedinDonbassonthe12th.Evenasa
responsetotheDonbassrebels'firstviolenceinSlavyanskonthe14th,
Kievwasoverreactingtoevents.Theoverreactionwasdrivennotonlyby
theMaidan'sneofascistelement'sfervorforwar.Itwasalsodrivenby
fearofwhatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinmightbeplanningin
DonbassgivenhisactionsinCrimea.Uncertaintyisnotarecipefor
stability.
YettherewasonelastchancetoavertwarinDonbass.Itwouldbe
scuttledbythenewregime'sshocktroops-theneo-fascistRightSector
(RS)ledbyDmitroYarosh.
GenevaFailure
Withthesituationspinningoutofcontrolontheground,actorsonthe
internationallevelintervenedagain.Moscowhadwarnedthatanyattack
onDonbassianswouldputtalkswithWashingtonandBrusselsscheduled
forGenevalaterthenextweekatrisk.[3]OnApril16-17thetop
foreignaffairsofficialsoftheU.S.,EU,Ukraine,andRussiametin
Genevainalastditch,belatedefforttoavoidcivilwarinUkraine.
UnlikethetalksinKievthatproducedtheFebruary21stagreementand
includedthepro-Maidanoppositionpartyleaders,neithertheDonbass
rebelsnoranyrepresentativesfromDonbasstookpartinGeneva.On
April17ththesidessignedavagueceasefireagreement,a"joint
statement,"consistingofaspirationaldeclarationsforaceasefire,
withdrawalfrombuildings,andtheinitiationofa"nationaldialogue"
onanewconstitutionratherthanconcretestepsforimplementationand
support.Ifnotfortheletterhead,theentiredocumentwouldhavefit
easilyononepage.Itreadinfull:
"TheGenevameetingonthesituationinUkraineagreedoninitial
concretestepstode-escalatetensionsandrestoresecurityforall
citizens.Allsidesmustrefrainfromanyviolence,intimidationor
provocativeactions.Theparticipantsstronglycondemnedandrejected
allexpressionsofextremism,racismandreligiousintolerance,
includinganti-Semitism.Allillegalarmedgroupsmustbedisarmedall
illegallyseizedbuildingsmustbereturnedtolegitimateownersall
illegallyoccupiedstreets,squaresandotherpublicplacesinUkrainian
citiesandtownsmustbevacated.Amnestywillbegrantedtoprotesters
andtothosewhohaveleftbuildingsandotherpublicplacesand
surrenderedweapons,withtheexceptionofthosefoundguiltyofcapital
crimes.ItwasagreedthattheO.S.C.E.SpecialMonitoringMission
shouldplayaleadingroleinassistingUkrainianauthoritiesandlocal
communitiesintheimmediateimplementationofthesede-escalation
measureswherevertheyareneededmost,beginninginthecomingdays.
TheU.S.,E.U.andRussiacommittosupportthismission,includingby
providingmonitors.Theannouncedconstitutionalprocesswillbe
inclusive,transparentandaccountable.Itwillincludetheimmediate
establishmentofabroadnationaldialogue,withoutreachtoallof
Ukraine'sregionsandpoliticalconstituencies,andallowforthe
considerationofpubliccommentsandproposedamendments.The
participantsunderlinedtheimportanceofeconomicandfinancial
stabilityinUkraineandwouldbereadytodiscussadditionalsupportas
theabovestepsareimplemented."[4]
AtapressconferenceafterthesigningUSSecretaryofStateKerryput
theonusforcompliancewiththeagreementbytheDNRfullyonthe
Russianside,muchasheandPresidentObamahadwiththeFebruary21st
agreement:"Responsibility(forsuccessfulimplementation)willliewith
thosewhohaveorganisedtheirpresence,providedthemwiththeweapons,
puttheuniformsonthem,supportedthem,andhavebeenengagedinthe
processofguidingthemoverthecourseofthisoperation."[5]Butas
notedabove,therebelforceswereactingspontaneously,still
unorganized,andpoorlyarmedandequipped.Thiscouldnotbesaidfor
MaidanKiev.
OrthodoxEasterCeasefireandtheRSAttackatSlavyansk
TheonepositivethatcameoutoftheagreementwasanEasterceasefire,
butitwasimmediatelyunderminedbyafamiliarculprit.Fromthe
outset,theneofascistsofYarosh'sRSandOlehTyahnybok'sSvoboda
Party(SP)weredeterminedtowagewaragainsttheDonbass.Towardsthis
end,ontheverydaytheceasefireagreementwassigned,aRSmilitant
ofthevolunteerbattalionsjustmovingintoDonbassfromthewest
detonatedagrenadeinahazyincidentkillinghimselfandtwoDonbass
rebelswhoallegedlyattackedhimatarebelcheckpointnear
Slavyansk.[6]Dayslater,onApril20th,EasterSunday,RSmilitants
appeartohavecarriedoutacoordinatedattackonanotherSlavyansk
checkpoint,scuttlingtheceasefire.TheattackleftthreeSlavyansk
rebelsdeadandfourwoundedandoneRSfighterkilledandtwowounded.
Ukraine'sSBUintelliegenceservice,however,accusedMoscowandallied
"saboteurs"ofcarryingouta"cynicalprovocation,"while
simultaneouslydenyingthattherewereanyUkrainianorganizationsof
anykindinthearea:"Ithasbeenestablishedthatonthatnightin
Slavyansktherewasnotoneorganizationbesidessaboteursand
representativesofthecriminalswhotheGRUofthegeneralStaffofthe
ArmedForcesoftheRussianFederationsupportandarm.Thiswas
establishedbyoperationalinvestigativeactivityatthesiteby
Ukraine'slawenforcementagencies."[7]TheNationalSecurityand
DefenseCouncil'sdeputysecretaryViktoriyaSumarbrushedoffonher
FacebookpageanyRSinvolvementas"Russianpropaganda":"Reportsby
Russianjournalistsaboutashootoutbetweensupposedlythe'Right
Sector'and'self-defenders'beinginSlavyanskbasedonsome'business
cardsofYarosh'and'unknownweapons'andthenumberofkilledwhich
growsbythehourandsomeother'details',evidenceofwhichnoonehas
seen,isatypicalformofRussianpropagandawhichnotonlymany
Russianbutalsomanyotherforeignmassmediacirculatetoday."Sumar
addedthattheeventwasdesginedbyMoscowtogivetheappearanceofa
civilwarandjustifyaRussianinvasionofUkraine.[8]
TheMaidanregime'ssilovikiappearedtobecoordinatingthe
disinformationwiththeneofacists,sinceRSspokesmanArtemSkoropadsky
alsoissuedadenial,sayingSlavyanskwasa"blasphemousprovocation
fromRussia:blasphemousbecauseittookplaceonaholynightfor
Christians,onEasternight.ThiswasclearlycarriedoutbyRussian
specialforces."[9]InanofficialstatementonitsVKontakepage,RS
againdeniedhaving"anyrelationship"tothe"operation"inSlavyansk,
adding:"AnyattempttotietheseactionswithRightSectorhaveonly
onegoal-toprovokefearofRSactivistsamongtheinhabitantsof
EasternUkraine."Theparty,thestatementclaimed,had"runintoan
unprecedentedinformationattacksupportedbyfalsifications,intrigues,
andmanipulationsofthefactsbyRussianmassmediacontrolledbythe
Kremlin."Atthesametime,RSacknowledgedthatits'activists'were
"nowsubordinatedtothestate'sorgansofcoercion"(silovieorgany)
andthustheiractionswerewithinthelegallimits.[10]Inthisview,
theATOdeclaredbyUkraine'sgovernmentandtobecarriedoutbyits
silovikiprovideda'legal'frameworkforRStocarryoutthe
'operation'itsupposedlyhadnotcarriedout.
TheRussianForeignMinistryexpressedoutrageoverthekillingof
"innocent,peacefulcitizens,"regardeditasabreachoftheEaster
ceasefire,andblamedRightSector,addingthattheincident"testifies
toalackofdesireonthepartoftheauthoritiesinKievtoreinin
anddisarmnationalistsandextremists."[11]Ukraine'sforeignministry
inturnreproachedRussiaforrushingtojudgmentandfailingtofulfiil
itsobligationsundertheGenevadeal:"TheRussiansidemustbe
remindedabouttheirobligationsundertheGenevaagreementtobringall
necessaryinfluencetobearonseparatiststoclearillegallyheld
buildings,unblockroads,laydownarmsandpreventanybloodshed."[12]
YetdespitealltheofficialdenialsfromMaidanKievandtheRS,ayear
laterinaBBCinterview,Yaroshacknowledgedhetookpartincombaton
thatdayinSlavyansk.HealsoclaimedthatatthistimeRSalreadyhad
anunlikely10,000fightersinthevolunteerbattalionsofitsVolunteer
UkrainianCorps(DobrovolchiyUkrainskiyKorpus)orDUK.[13]Later,an
RS-affiliatedwebsiteincludedonitslistofheroicmemberskilled
duringtheATO,MikhailoStanislavenko,notinghewaskilledin
Slavyanskon20April2014.[14]Onthatdaytherewasonlyoneviolent
incidentinSlavyansk.
ForensicsevidencelateremergedfurtherconfirmingRSmilitants'
involvementintheincident.Forexample,two2016Ukrainiancourt
decisionsshowthatprosecutors'investigationshaddeterminedthattwo
RSfighterswerewoundedintheEasterattackandthattheyhadusedthe
verysamefirearmsusedonMaidanon18February2014tokilltwoMVD
troopsandwoundthreemore.Moreover,aneyewitnessreportedthatone
oftheSlavyanskseparatistskilledatthecheckpointwasshotbya
sniperand,forensicshasshownthesniperusedthesamekindof
expanding7.62mmcaliberbullets,whichwererecoveredatthesiteof
theattackatthecheckpoint,thatwereusedonMaidanandwiththesame
kindofAKMandhuntingcarbinesbasedontheKalashnikovassaultrifles
usedonMaidan.Also,Yarosh'sbusinesscard,alistwithnamesof
severalotherRSleaders,andanRSbattalion'sSecurityService
medallionnumber20wereseizedbyseparatistsduringthefight.Yetthe
involvementofRSintheattackwasimmediatelydeniednotjustbythe
RSbutbytheSBU,theMVD,theNationalSecurityandDefenseCouncil,
andpro-Maidanmedia,claimingagainwithoutanyevidencethatthe
Yaroshbusinesscardandotherevidencewerefabrications.[15]
Thus,severalfactssuggestthattheRSandultra-nationalistelements
intheSBUandtheNationalSecurityandDefenseCouncil,suchasits
chiefParubiy,stoodbehindtheEasterattack.First,thecouncil,the
SBUandotherstateorgansissuedwhatwasthenstillatleast
unverifiableanditappearsknowntobefalseinformationindesignating
theattackaRussianprovocationanddenyingRS'sinvolvement
involvementlateracknowledgedbytheRSitselfanddocumentedincourt
documents.ThisisconsistentwiththeMaidanUkraine'spracticeof
excessiveandnon-crediblestrategiccommunicationsanddisinformation,
usuallyblamingMoscow,suchaswasthecaseinthesnipers'massacre
andeventstocomeinOdessainMay.Second,theinvolvementofYarosh
andtheRSelementssuggestsaMaidan-styleprovocation,giventhe
historyoftheMaidansnipers'massacreandeventstocomeinOdessa.
Third,casualtiesweregreaterontherebelside,suggestingtheywere
attackedfirstbyYaroshandhisRSfighters.Indeed,Yaroshinthe
interviewayearlatermentionedabovedoesnotrefertotheclashasa
rebelorRussianattackorprovocation.WithKiev'sattackatSlavyansk,
theceasefireended.Ukraine'scivilwarwasabouttobegininearnest.
Luhansk:FromOblasttoInsurgency
TheRS'sApril20thEasterattackhadanimmediateeffectinLuhansk,
ignitingtheinsurgentflamethathadspreadinDonetsktoitsDonbass
neighbor.ThosewhoinearlyAprilstormedLuhansk'sgovernment
buildingsandothersremainedonthesquareneartheOGAforweeks,and
Kievundertooknoattempttonegotiatewiththem.Genevaofferedhope,
butnodialoguebeganandinsteadtheEasterattackescalatedthelevel
ofviolence,withthefirstcombatcasualtiesinDonbass.OnApril21st,
theprotestersorganizedaseriesofvechesacrosstheregiontoelect
delegatestoaregion-widevecheheldinLuhanskcitythesamedayand
attendedbyseveralthousand,chanting:"Russia!Referendum!"Some
protestersappearedtosupportUkraine'sfederalizationasapathto
regionalautonomywithinUkraine,whileotherssupportedUkraine's
reunificationwiththeRussianFederation.TheLuhanskvechedeclared
theLuhanskPeople'sRepublic(LNR)andtworeferenda.Onereferendum
wasscheduledforMay11thtodeterminewhethertheregionshouldseek
autonomousstatuswithinUkraine.Thesecond,scheduledforMay18th
wouldtodeterminewhethertheLNRshoulddeclareindependencefrom
UkraineorjointheRussianFederationshouldautonomywithinUkrainebe
rejectedonthe11th.[16]TheProsecutorGeneral'sOffice(GPO)deemed
therallies'separatist'innature:"Thedemonstrators'speeches,
insigniaandfederalizationslogans,aswellascallstoholdalocal
referendum,areexplicitlyseparatist.Theregionalprosecutor'soffice
seestheunrestintheLuhanskregionasillegalanditentered
informationonthemintothedatabaseofpre-trialinquiriestobe
controlledbytheLuhanskregionalprosecutor'soffice."[17]Aweek
latertheLNRwasofficiallydeclared,anditsleadersdemandedthat
KievrecognizetheauthorityoftheBolotovasthenewgovernor,provide
amnestytoallprotesters,codifyRussiaasastatelanguage,andholda
referendumonLuhansk'sstatusandtheMaidangovernmentleadershipdid
notmeetthesedemandsby14:00onApril29th,theywouldjoinwiththe
DNRinaninsurgencyagainsttheATO.[18]Kievneverreactedotherthan
todivertsomeATOforcestoLuhansk.Therewasnoturningback.RShad
ensuredtherewouldbeaDonbasscivilwar.
Footnotes
[1]"Mesyatsokkupatsii.Slavyansk"and"UkraineArmyLaunches
'Anti-Terror'Operation,"SkyNews,14April2014,
http://news.sky.com/story/1241376/ukraine-army-launches-anti-terror-operation.
[2]"Mesyatsokkupatsii.Slavyansk."
[3]"UkraineArmyLaunches'Anti-Terror'Operation."
[4]"GenevaStatementonUkraine,"EUExternalActionService,17April
2014,http://www.eeas.europa.eu/statements/docs/2014/140417_01_en.pdf.
[5]JulianBorgerandAlecLuhn,"Ukrainecrisis:Genevatalksagreement
ondefusingconflict,"TheGuardian,17April2014,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/ukraine-crisis-agreement-us-russia-eu.
[6]YekaterinaStulen',"Boets'Pravogosektora'vzorvalsebyaidvukh
'zelenikhchelovechkov,"VestiUkraina,17April2014,
http://vesti-ukr.com/donbass/48168-boec-pravogo-sektora-vzorval-sebja-i-dvuh-zelenyh-chelovechkov.
[7]SeetheSBUstatementat"ShchodozbroinoiprovokatsiiuPaskhal'nu
nichbilyam.Slov'yansk,"SluzhbabezopekiUkrainy,20April2014,
http://www.sbu.gov.ua/sbu/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=124389&cat_id=39574.
Seealso"SBU:Separatistysrossiiskimydiversantamiinstsenirovali
napadenienablokpostSlavyanska,"Gordonua.com,20April2014,
http://gordonua.com/news/separatism/sbu-separatisty-s-rossiyskimi-diversantami-inscenirovali-vnesh
nee-napadenie-na-blokpost-slavyanska-19184.html.
[8]"VSNBOraskritikovalilzhivyiesoobshcheniyaRossiiskoipressyo
perestrelkevSlavyanske,"TSN.ru,20April2014,
http://ru.tsn.ua/politika/v-snbo-raskritikovali-lzhivye-soobscheniya-rossiyskoy-pressy-o-perestrel
ke-v-slavyanske-361755.html.
[9]AleksandrVasovicandAlissaDeCarbonnell,"Deadlygunattackin
easternUkraineshakesfragileGenevaaccord,"Reuters,20April2014,
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA3A1B520140420.
Slavyanske,"Korrespondent,20April2014,
http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/3352145-pravyi-sektor-otrytsaet-svoui-prychastnost-k-per
estrelke-v-slavianske.
Slavyanske."
[12]VasovicandDeCarbonnell,"DeadlygunattackineasternUkraine
shakesfragileGenevaaccord."
[13]"DmitroYarosh:namsheKrimpovertati,"BBC(Ukrainian),11
February2015,
http://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/politics/2015/02/150211_yarosh_interview_vs.
[14]"DUK5-IOkremiiBatal'ion,"VKontakte,12October2014,
http://archive.is/4a5bMcitedinIvanKatchanovski,"January26at
2:43,"Facebook,26January2016,
http://www.facebook.com/ivan.katchanovski/posts/1165670110129540.
[15]"UkhvalaimenemUkraini-SpravaNo.757/42824/15-k""Ukhvala
imenemUkraini-SpravaNo.757/47700/15-k"and"VSlavyanskePravyi
sektoratakovalblokpost,pogiblitroezhitelei,"YouTube,8April2015,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J3bp6Ml4agallcitedinKatchanovski,
"January26at2:43."
rallies,"Interfax-Ukraine,21April2014,
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/201534.htmland"VLuganske
separatistyreshiliprovestidvareferenduma,"Ukrainskayapravda,21
April2014,http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2014/04/21/7023176/.
rallies."
[18]"LatestfromtheSpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraine-basedon
informationreceivedupuntil28April2014,19:00(Kyivtime),"
OrganizationonSecurityandCooperationinEurope,28April2014,
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/118153and"Federalizationsupportersin
Luhanskproclaimpeople'srepublic,"Tass,28April2014,
http://tass.ru/en/world/729768.
Johnson'sRussiaList,6368CircleDrive,Chincoteague,VA23336
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OnApr16,2016,at04:40,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
Photo:DmitryKostyukov/TheNewYorkTimes/Scanpix
ButIloveRussia,andIlove
RussiansFormerUSAmbassadortoRussia
MichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduza
19:25,15APRIL2016 MEDUZA
MichaelMcFaul,aformeradvisortoPresidentBarackObama,is
consideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattempted
inUS-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwastheUS
ambassadortoRussia.AfterleavingMoscow,heleftthediplomatic
serviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanford
University.AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdown
withMeduza'sIlyaKrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivide
RussiaandtheUStoday,howthetwocountries'leadersshould
structurerelations,andwhyAmericasuffersfromashortageof
expertsspecializinginRussia.
Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I've
heardroughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormous
problemwithAmericanspecialistsonRussia.Theleadingexpertsare
thestill-livingSovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneeded
It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,
inacademia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthe
studyofRussia,becauseforthefirsttimeeveryoucouldstudyRussialikea
normalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddo
surveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrote
manyarticlesandonebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthe
samemethodsthatweusetostudyAmericanelections.
AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademics
interestedinRussia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-
Wargeneration,butnotthenewgenerationsomewhereinbetween).
Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthis
crisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocial
sciences(economics,politicalscienceI'minthedepartmentofpolitical
sciencehere[atStanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.
SoifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renot
specialistsonRussiaorChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistson
generaltrends:therelationshipbetweendemocracyanddevelopment,and
soon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsofcountries.Atmy
That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethat
knowindividualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajor
universitiesinAmerica,you'llfindfewerandfewerRussiaspecialists,and
thatmeanswedon'tteachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsor
undergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.And
thathasledtoafallingoffofstudentsespeciallyyoung,PhDstudentswho
thenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeepRussianstudiesalive.
Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere's
beenanexplosionofthinktanksinWashington.Youprobablynoticedthem
inWashington,right?
They'reeverywhere!
ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocanget
jobsinthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebad
news,inmyopinion,isthatthere'snotmuchqualitycontrol.Anybodycan
say,I'maRussiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.
There'snodifferencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofa
thinktankinWashingtoninthenoisethatistheexperts.
AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igoback
andforth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalso
politicalscienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus(likethreeorfourin
thewholecountry).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.
Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istarteda
programon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlots
ofstudentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaandEurope.Ithinkit's
incumbentonpeoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktothe
university.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.
Ihaven'tevenbeenteachingaboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingabout
democratization,USforeignpolicy,democracydevelopment,andruleof
law.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'm
goingtogobacktoteachingRussia.
Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.
Andthey'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.
That'sright.
I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedin
gettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandthe
MiddleEast.TherewillalwaysbebusinesstodowithChina,andthe
MiddleEastwillalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,you
can'talwaysdobusiness,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimeto
Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,
whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemore
contactwithRussia.PresidentMedvedevcametoStanford.Hespokehere
in2010,andwasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,
anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,
andtherewerecompaniesinRussia.Lotsofactivity.
Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.
AndsonowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUS
government,butthosejobsarenotinteresting,unlessyougetinatthe
highestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemost
prestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,
whenyoucanjustwalkdownthestreetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe're
competingtogetthosepeopleinterestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'sa
problem.
ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhat
happensintheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUS
governmenthaveaproblemtodayfindingqualifiedareaexperts?
I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(and
I'maverybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twoin
thecampaignandfiveinthegovernment)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasin
thegovernment,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehad
tremendousexpertise.
OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthe
presidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)Atthe
StateDepartment,atmylevel,wehadalotofstrongpeople.WhenI
workedattheembassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.
Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(He
worksinLithuanianow.)HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyinthe
USknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.
Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegot
electionscomingup.
Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-Russianrelationschangewitha
newUSpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidential
election?
IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,
ifit'sClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...unique
thingsaboutUS-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaidsomeveryuniquethings
aboutourrelationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.
Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She's
anotherofmyoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.Ihave
aprettygoodsenseofherpositionsonRussiainfact,averygoodsense.
Bytheway,afterIintroducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenI
mentionedsomethingaboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.
Andshesaid,makingeveryonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,stays
inVladivostok.
BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowto
dealwithPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.
Andyou'regoingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.
Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallinAmericanpolitics.
Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,whenI
workedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,whenthere'sabigeventin
Russia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.Thistime,itwillbe
RussianinterventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawho
carealotaboutRussianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:
Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.
Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.
Buttheytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthat
sometimesgoDemocraticandsometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andthereare
tensofthousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.
AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).And
therearelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.For
thosegroups,thisisgoingtobeanissuewhereTrumpversusClintonisa
starkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceonthe
election.
SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwo
candidates?
WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisitto
avoidtheterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwo
countriescanonlytalkabouteachotherasenemies...
Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.
Aboutonceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacouple
ofthings.One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'msometimesspeakingto
800peopleinstateslikeMontana.Eighthundredpeoplecametomytalk
aboutRussiainMontana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Nine
hundredpeopleshowedupforatalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthat
thereisinterestinthistopic.
IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebband
flowofthenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsay
thatyourgeneralthesisisabsolutelyright.There'saverysimplifiedstory
thatgoesbacktotheColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhen
IgivemytalksI'veseenthis.
Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbe
surprisedespeciallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismore
contestedamongelites,especiallyliberalelitesinAmerica.Andthat'sfine.
Ihavemyownverystrongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactually
ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'm
onTV,aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.The
firstthingIsayisthatyou'renotallowedinmyclassormylecturestosay
thingslike,RussiathinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venever
metMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.
Russia.[Laughs.]
There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'sa
muchmorecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansand
Europeansunderstand.It'smuchmorenuanced.Andeventhewaythe
regimeMr.Putinandhisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmore
complex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericans
areshockedthatMeduzaexists.Andthatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflyto
Moscow.
Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeople
thinkitis.
AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaand
theUS?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.
I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedon
personalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.
It'sbecauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneintheObamaadministrationand
mostAmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraine
andthenfomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherules
oftheinternationalsystem.
I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetback
todoingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytime
soon,inmyopinion.
ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmany
meetingswithPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasa
competitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingtochange.He'shadthatviewfor
alongtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.
Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimas
president.I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthat
viewandthat'snotgoingtochange.
Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.
ItwasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeof
foreigncontactsforSobchak.
Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabigger
impressiononme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasvery
friendly.HewasoneofthefirstguysImetwhoopenlytoldmethatthey
workedforSovietintelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(This
wasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.
WebothspeakPortuguese.
Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecan
agreetodisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceon
otherissues.AndIthinkthat'swhatObamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthe
nextpresidentshoulddo,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriais
goingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingto
Whyareyoutoblame?
Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis
[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'm
writingabookrightnowabouthowwewererighttohavedonewhatwe
did.It'scalledTheReset.
ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementaboutthese
otherthings,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]
I'msayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that'snotgoodforourinterests.I
don'tthinkit'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethat
wetrytokeepbordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchanges
going...
Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolate
Russia?Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sin
responsetoRussia'sinternationalisolation.
AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheir
governmentdoingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizing
mypresident.Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iusedtobethe
ambassador,right?
Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,Becauseyourpresidentwassuchanidioton
Syria,I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikefor
me,IwasverycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthePutingovernmentdid,butI
loveRussia.AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-
RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatI
thinkwehavetofightagainst.
ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafrom
theworld?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?
Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,when
RussiaannexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.If
sanctionsareisolatingRussiangovernmentofficials,welltheyshouldthink
aboutthatthenexttimetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,
theyare!Ithinksanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.
RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanother
countrywillresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussia
isn'ttheonlystatethatchangestheruleshere,andtheKremlinpoints,
ofcourse,toIraqandAmerica'scampaignthere.Buttherewereno
sanctionsagainsttheUSoritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStates
handlethisperceptioninRussia?
Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterrible
priceforinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsof
Iraqisdied,wespentalotofmoneythere,andweachievedverylittle
results.Andwealienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformal
economicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterrible
priceforthat?Myanswerisyes.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:two
wrongsdon'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgive
mearighttostealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sastrangelogic.Right?If
youthoughtIraqwaswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateral
usesofforcearealsowrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]
wasright,thenyouhavetosay,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.But
peopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalled
whataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?WellwhataboutSyria?Whatabout
Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.Ifyouwereforthewarin
Iraq,oryou'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia
(becausethoseanalogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmyview)the[analogy]
that'sclosesttoRussiaisifyouwereforChechenindependence.People
[there]wantedindependence.IfyouwereforChechenindependence,thenI
canunderstandyourenthusiasmforCrimeajoining.Butifyouwereagainst
Chechenindependence,eventhoughthemajorityofthepeoplewantedto
leave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbeforannexation.That'sjust
logicallyinconsistent.
I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitfora
living,butImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeech
before2014whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjusticethatKhrushchevgave
awayCrimea,andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwhere
hesaid,DoyouknowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeing
discriminatedagainst?They'rebeingkilled.It'sveryunstableandvery
uncertainthere,andwehavetodefendthem.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthat
before2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefactthatit'sall
saidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedin
Maidan,andnotaboutCrimea.
presidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.So
howdoestheWestandtheUSdealwiththenextRussianpresident,
evenifhe'sdemocraticandmuchbetter?
MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'sa
DemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognize
theannexationofCrimea.Toholdontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]
mightchangewouldbemisguidedpolicy.
Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfronts
wouldleadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,that
thatwouldbeembraced.WhatIworryaboutisthatwewon'trecognize
thosemomentsbecausethere'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthat
therecanbepositivechangeinRussiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworry
aboutisolationism.
Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothing
goodthatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,to
me,istherealtendencyrightnow.It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenI
speaktoRussians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandall
wedoisthinkaboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(Whatdowedowith
Russia?)ThatwewonderwhatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That's
whatIworryabout.Iworryaboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenot
caring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.
Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajor
leaderontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].
Putin'snotthere.Hedecidednottocome.Iworrythatpeoplewillbeginto
thinkaboutRussiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.Andthatwouldbe
atragedyforRussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.
So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternational
meetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhas
madeitabundantlyclearthatthiscampaignwaspartofbringingRussia
backtoglobalpolitics.Whytheparadox?
Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernment
sells,right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquite
successfulinhispolicyinSyria.Ithinkweshouldacknowledgethatthat
heachievedhisobjective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,and
he'sdonethat.HisobjectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhatever
propagandahasbeensaid.It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.
MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIStheywereagainstothergroups
there.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhisobjective.
IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISIS
alotmorethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.I
thinkit'sasmartpolicytosaynowthatAssadneedstobepartofthe
negotiations,sowecanhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.
That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,
whoaredealingwiththeRussians,andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,
Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreatactorinthewar!It'smorelike
Russiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthisresult,andwehaveto
dealwiththem.
Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasa
respectedpartnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.I
getit.Youcanbeatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotofattention.Toughguysgeta
lotofattention,butitdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhas
changedtheirviewsaboutMr.PutinasaresultofSyria.
SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthis
coalitionisTurkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisa
toughguy,too.He'sabully,too.SowhyishepartofAmerica's
coalition?
Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehave
similarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Buton
someveryparticularissues,wehaveradicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.
HejustsaidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotally
disagreeabouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.
Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehaveto
dealwithhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespecting
himforwhatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashingtonandthepresidentof
theUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.
You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybe
notcommonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.
Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.Withthe
USandothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:the
policyofpragmatism,whereyoucooperatewithnationswhenit'sin
yourcurrentinterests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracy
throughouttheworld.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?
Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,over
ourhistory,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocratic
regimes.Ourfirstremember,goingallthewaybacktothebeginningofthe
AmericanRepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyanda
dictatorship.Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,we
wouldhavelostthewaragainsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougo
backandyoulookatthathistory,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,and
therewasadebateinWashingtonaboutwhetherwesupportouralliesand
ourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesall
thewaybacktothebeginning.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealways
beendemocracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersinthe
world,they'redemocracies.Alloftheautocracieswithwhichwe'vehad
alliancerelationshipshavealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestable
whenthosecountriesmaketransitions.Throughoutourhistory.
Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseof
autocraticstability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbut
they'reneverourlong-termalliesbecauseautocracieshavetheproblemof
remaininginpower.SoIranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnited
StatesfordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,oneyear,theybecameour
worstenemy.Thatonlyhappensinautocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwith
democraticalliances.
ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit's
real.There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,one
wayortheother.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]alladministrations
(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),this
isatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitis
theysaywehaveshort-termintereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealso
needtopursueourlong-termvaluesourlong-terminterestinsupporting
values.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartis
theuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itnever
has.Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.
IlyaKrasilshchik
PaloAlto,California
From: pmstronski@gmail.com
Senttime: 04/16/201610:50:09AM
Subject: Re:HeLovesRussia.....
Whatanass!
SentfrommyiPhone
OnApr16,2016,at04:40,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
consideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattempted
inUS-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwastheUS
serviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanford
University.AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdown
withMeduza'sIlyaKrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivide
RussiaandtheUStoday,howthetwocountries'leadersshould
structurerelations,andwhyAmericasuffersfromashortageof
expertsspecializinginRussia.
Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I've
heardroughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormous
problemwithAmericanspecialistsonRussia.Theleadingexpertsare
thestill-livingSovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneeded
It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,
inacademia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthe
studyofRussia,becauseforthefirsttimeeveryoucouldstudyRussialikea
normalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddo
surveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrote
manyarticlesandonebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthe
samemethodsthatweusetostudyAmericanelections.
AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademics
interestedinRussia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-
Wargeneration,butnotthenewgenerationsomewhereinbetween).
crisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocial
sciences(economics,politicalscienceI'minthedepartmentofpolitical
sciencehere[atStanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.
SoifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renot
specialistsonRussiaorChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistson
generaltrends:therelationshipbetweendemocracyanddevelopment,and
soon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsofcountries.Atmy
That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethat
knowindividualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajor
universitiesinAmerica,you'llfindfewerandfewerRussiaspecialists,and
thatmeanswedon'tteachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsor
undergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.And
thathasledtoafallingoffofstudentsespeciallyyoung,PhDstudentswho
thenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeepRussianstudiesalive.
Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere's
beenanexplosionofthinktanksinWashington.Youprobablynoticedthem
inWashington,right?
They'reeverywhere!
ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocanget
jobsinthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebad
news,inmyopinion,isthatthere'snotmuchqualitycontrol.Anybodycan
say,I'maRussiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.
There'snodifferencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofa
thinktankinWashingtoninthenoisethatistheexperts.
AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igoback
andforth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalso
politicalscienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus(likethreeorfourin
thewholecountry).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.
programon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlots
ofstudentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaandEurope.Ithinkit's
incumbentonpeoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktothe
university.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.
Ihaven'tevenbeenteachingaboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingabout
democratization,USforeignpolicy,democracydevelopment,andruleof
law.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'm
goingtogobacktoteachingRussia.
Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.
Andthey'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.
That'sright.
gettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandthe
MiddleEast.TherewillalwaysbebusinesstodowithChina,andthe
MiddleEastwillalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,you
can'talwaysdobusiness,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimeto
whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemore
contactwithRussia.PresidentMedvedevcametoStanford.Hespokehere
in2010,andwasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,
anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,
andtherewerecompaniesinRussia.Lotsofactivity.
Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.
AndsonowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUS
government,butthosejobsarenotinteresting,unlessyougetinatthe
highestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemost
prestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,
whenyoucanjustwalkdownthestreetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe're
competingtogetthosepeopleinterestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'sa
problem.
ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhat
happensintheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUS
governmenthaveaproblemtodayfindingqualifiedareaexperts?
I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(and
I'maverybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twoin
thecampaignandfiveinthegovernment)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasin
thegovernment,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehad
tremendousexpertise.
presidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)Atthe
StateDepartment,atmylevel,wehadalotofstrongpeople.WhenI
workedattheembassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.
Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(He
worksinLithuanianow.)HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyinthe
USknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.
Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegot
electionscomingup.
Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-Russianrelationschangewitha
newUSpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidential
election?
IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,
ifit'sClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...unique
thingsaboutUS-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaidsomeveryuniquethings
aboutourrelationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.
Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She's
anotherofmyoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.Ihave
aprettygoodsenseofherpositionsonRussiainfact,averygoodsense.
Bytheway,afterIintroducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenI
mentionedsomethingaboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.
Andshesaid,makingeveryonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,stays
inVladivostok.
BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowto
dealwithPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.
Andyou'regoingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.
Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallinAmericanpolitics.
Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,whenI
workedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,whenthere'sabigeventin
Russia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.Thistime,itwillbe
RussianinterventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawho
carealotaboutRussianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:
Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.
Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.
Buttheytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthat
Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andthereare
tensofthousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.
AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).And
therearelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.For
thosegroups,thisisgoingtobeanissuewhereTrumpversusClintonisa
starkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceonthe
election.
SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwo
candidates?
WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisitto
avoidtheterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwo
countriescanonlytalkabouteachotherasenemies...
Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.
Aboutonceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacouple
ofthings.One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'msometimesspeakingto
800peopleinstateslikeMontana.Eighthundredpeoplecametomytalk
aboutRussiainMontana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Nine
hundredpeopleshowedupforatalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthat
thereisinterestinthistopic.
IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebband
flowofthenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsay
thatyourgeneralthesisisabsolutelyright.There'saverysimplifiedstory
thatgoesbacktotheColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhen
IgivemytalksI'veseenthis.
Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbe
surprisedespeciallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismore
contestedamongelites,especiallyliberalelitesinAmerica.Andthat'sfine.
Ihavemyownverystrongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactually
ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'm
onTV,aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.The
firstthingIsayisthatyou'renotallowedinmyclassormylecturestosay
thingslike,RussiathinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venever
metMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.
Russia.[Laughs.]
There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'sa
muchmorecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansand
Europeansunderstand.It'smuchmorenuanced.Andeventhewaythe
regimeMr.Putinandhisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmore
complex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericans
areshockedthatMeduzaexists.Andthatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflyto
Moscow.
Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeople
thinkitis.
AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaand
theUS?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.
personalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.
It'sbecauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneintheObamaadministrationand
mostAmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraine
andthenfomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherules
oftheinternationalsystem.
I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetback
todoingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytime
soon,inmyopinion.
competitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingtochange.He'shadthatviewfor
alongtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.
Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimas
president.I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthat
viewandthat'snotgoingtochange.
Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.
ItwasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeof
foreigncontactsforSobchak.
Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabigger
impressiononme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasvery
friendly.HewasoneofthefirstguysImetwhoopenlytoldmethatthey
workedforSovietintelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(This
wasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.
WebothspeakPortuguese.
Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecan
agreetodisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceon
otherissues.AndIthinkthat'swhatObamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthe
nextpresidentshoulddo,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriais
goingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingto
Whyareyoutoblame?
[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'm
writingabookrightnowabouthowwewererighttohavedonewhatwe
did.It'scalledTheReset.
ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementaboutthese
otherthings,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]
I'msayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that'snotgoodforourinterests.I
don'tthinkit'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethat
wetrytokeepbordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchanges
going...
Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolate
Russia?Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sin
responsetoRussia'sinternationalisolation.
AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheir
governmentdoingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizing
mypresident.Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iusedtobethe
ambassador,right?
Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,Becauseyourpresidentwassuchanidioton
Syria,I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikefor
me,IwasverycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthePutingovernmentdid,butI
loveRussia.AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-
RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatI
thinkwehavetofightagainst.
ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafrom
theworld?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?
Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,when
RussiaannexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.If
sanctionsareisolatingRussiangovernmentofficials,welltheyshouldthink
aboutthatthenexttimetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,
theyare!Ithinksanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.
RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanother
countrywillresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussia
isn'ttheonlystatethatchangestheruleshere,andtheKremlinpoints,
ofcourse,toIraqandAmerica'scampaignthere.Buttherewereno
sanctionsagainsttheUSoritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStates
handlethisperceptioninRussia?
Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterrible
priceforinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsof
Iraqisdied,wespentalotofmoneythere,andweachievedverylittle
results.Andwealienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformal
economicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterrible
priceforthat?Myanswerisyes.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:two
wrongsdon'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgive
mearighttostealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sastrangelogic.Right?If
youthoughtIraqwaswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateral
usesofforcearealsowrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]
wasright,thenyouhavetosay,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.But
peopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalled
whataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?WellwhataboutSyria?Whatabout
Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.Ifyouwereforthewarin
Iraq,oryou'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia
(becausethoseanalogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmyview)the[analogy]
that'sclosesttoRussiaisifyouwereforChechenindependence.People
[there]wantedindependence.IfyouwereforChechenindependence,thenI
canunderstandyourenthusiasmforCrimeajoining.Butifyouwereagainst
Chechenindependence,eventhoughthemajorityofthepeoplewantedto
leave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbeforannexation.That'sjust
I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitfora
living,butImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeech
before2014whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjusticethatKhrushchevgave
awayCrimea,andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwhere
hesaid,DoyouknowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeing
discriminatedagainst?They'rebeingkilled.It'sveryunstableandvery
uncertainthere,andwehavetodefendthem.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthat
before2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefactthatit'sall
saidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedin
Maidan,andnotaboutCrimea.
presidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.So
howdoestheWestandtheUSdealwiththenextRussianpresident,
evenifhe'sdemocraticandmuchbetter?
DemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognize
theannexationofCrimea.Toholdontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]
mightchangewouldbemisguidedpolicy.
Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfronts
wouldleadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,that
thatwouldbeembraced.WhatIworryaboutisthatwewon'trecognize
thosemomentsbecausethere'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthat
therecanbepositivechangeinRussiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworry
aboutisolationism.
Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothing
goodthatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,to
me,istherealtendencyrightnow.It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenI
speaktoRussians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandall
wedoisthinkaboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(Whatdowedowith
Russia?)ThatwewonderwhatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That's
whatIworryabout.Iworryaboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenot
caring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.
Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajor
leaderontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].
Putin'snotthere.Hedecidednottocome.Iworrythatpeoplewillbeginto
thinkaboutRussiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.Andthatwouldbe
atragedyforRussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.
meetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhas
madeitabundantlyclearthatthiscampaignwaspartofbringingRussia
backtoglobalpolitics.Whytheparadox?
Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernment
sells,right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquite
successfulinhispolicyinSyria.Ithinkweshouldacknowledgethatthat
heachievedhisobjective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,and
he'sdonethat.HisobjectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhatever
propagandahasbeensaid.It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.
MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIStheywereagainstothergroups
there.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhisobjective.
IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISIS
alotmorethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.I
thinkit'sasmartpolicytosaynowthatAssadneedstobepartofthe
negotiations,sowecanhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.
That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,
whoaredealingwiththeRussians,andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,
Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreatactorinthewar!It'smorelike
Russiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthisresult,andwehaveto
dealwiththem.
Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasa
respectedpartnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.I
getit.Youcanbeatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotofattention.Toughguysgeta
lotofattention,butitdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhas
changedtheirviewsaboutMr.PutinasaresultofSyria.
SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthis
coalitionisTurkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisa
toughguy,too.He'sabully,too.SowhyishepartofAmerica's
coalition?
similarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Buton
someveryparticularissues,wehaveradicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.
HejustsaidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotally
disagreeabouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.
Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehaveto
dealwithhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespecting
himforwhatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashingtonandthepresidentof
theUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.
You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybe
notcommonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.
Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.Withthe
USandothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:the
policyofpragmatism,whereyoucooperatewithnationswhenit'sin
yourcurrentinterests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracy
throughouttheworld.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?
Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,over
ourhistory,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocratic
regimes.Ourfirstremember,goingallthewaybacktothebeginningofthe
AmericanRepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyanda
dictatorship.Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,we
wouldhavelostthewaragainsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougo
backandyoulookatthathistory,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,and
therewasadebateinWashingtonaboutwhetherwesupportouralliesand
ourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesall
thewaybacktothebeginning.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealways
beendemocracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersinthe
world,they'redemocracies.Alloftheautocracieswithwhichwe'vehad
alliancerelationshipshavealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestable
whenthosecountriesmaketransitions.Throughoutourhistory.
Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseof
autocraticstability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbut
they'reneverourlong-termalliesbecauseautocracieshavetheproblemof
remaininginpower.SoIranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnited
StatesfordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,oneyear,theybecameour
worstenemy.Thatonlyhappensinautocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwith
democraticalliances.
ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit's
real.There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,one
wayortheother.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]alladministrations
(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),this
isatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitis
theysaywehaveshort-termintereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealso
needtopursueourlong-termvaluesourlong-terminterestinsupporting
values.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartis
theuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itnever
has.Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.
IlyaKrasilshchik
PaloAlto,California
From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/16/201604:06:08AM
Subject: Re:L.M.A.O.
Indeed.
Apparentlynotaself-parody.
OnSat,Apr16,2016at4:43AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
%seo%
Ru
News
Stories
Likeitornot
1850
Photo:DmitryKostyukov/TheNewYorkTimes/ScanpixButIloveRussia,andIloveRussiansFormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduza
19:25,15April2016Meduza
MichaelMcFaul,aformeradvisortoPresidentBarackObama,isconsideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattemptedinUS-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwasthe
USambassadortoRussia.AfterleavingMoscow,heleftthediplomaticserviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanfordUniversity.AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdownwith
Meduza'sIlyaKrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivideRussiaandtheUStoday,howthetwocountries'leadersshouldstructurerelations,andwhyAmericasuffersfromashortageofexperts
specializinginRussia.
Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheardroughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwithAmericanspecialistsonRussia.The
leadingexpertsarethestill-livingSovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthistobethecase?
It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,inacademia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyofRussia,becauseforthefirsttimeever
youcouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesand
onebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweusetostudyAmericanelections.
AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedinRussia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,butnotthenewgeneration
Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthiscrisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences(economics,politicalscienceI'minthe
departmentofpoliticalsciencehere[atStanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.SoifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaor
ChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationshipbetweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsofcountries.Atmy
That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknowindividualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesinAmerica,you'llfindfewerandfewer
Russiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon'tteachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffof
studentsespeciallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeepRussianstudiesalive.
Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenanexplosionofthinktanksinWashington.YouprobablynoticedtheminWashington,right?
They'reeverywhere!
ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobsinthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,inmyopinion,isthatthere'snotmuch
qualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'maRussiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'snodifferencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankinWashington
inthenoisethatistheexperts.
AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackandforth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopoliticalscienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus
(likethreeorfourinthewholecountry).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.
Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istartedaprogramon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsofstudentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaand
Europe.Ithinkit'sincumbentonpeoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeenteaching
aboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeignpolicy,democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoingto
gobacktoteachingRussia.
Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.Andthey'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.
That'sright.
I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedingettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddleEast.Therewillalwaysbe
businesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEastwillalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdobusiness,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimetoguarantee
afuture,intermsofacareer.
Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontactwithRussia.PresidentMedvedevcameto
Stanford.Hespokeherein2010,andwasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewere
companiesinRussia.Lotsofactivity.
Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.AndsonowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,butthosejobsarenotinteresting,
unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthe
streetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.
ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappensintheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernmenthaveaproblemtodayfinding
qualifiedareaexperts?
I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'maverybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhecampaignandfiveinthegovernment)...It
wasmyview,whenIwasinthegovernment,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendousexpertise.
OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthepresidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheStateDepartment,atmylevel,wehadalotof
strongpeople.WhenIworkedattheembassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)
HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.
Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-RussianrelationschangewithanewUSpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?
IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit'sClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsaboutUS-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaid
someveryuniquethingsaboutourrelationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.
Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherofmyoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.IhaveaprettygoodsenseofherpositionsonRussiain
fact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterIintroducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomethingaboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,making
everyonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.
BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodealwithPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou'regoingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.
Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,when
there'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.Thistime,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawhocarealotaboutRussian
policy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.
Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.ButtheytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthatsometimesgoDemocraticandsometimesgo
Republican.So,Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensofthousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.
AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).AndtherearelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,thisisgoingtobeanissuewhere
TrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.
WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoidtheterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountriescanonlytalkabouteach
otherasenemies...
Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.Aboutonceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'm
sometimesspeakingto800peopleinstateslikeMontana.EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiainMontana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundredpeopleshowedup
foratalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.
IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowofthenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyourgeneralthesisisabsolutelyright.
There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbacktotheColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI'veseenthis.
Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprisedespeciallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamongelites,especiallyliberalelitesin
America.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownverystrongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soIhavemyownargument.
ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsayisthatyou'renotallowedinmy
classormylecturestosaythingslike,RussiathinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]
There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuchmorecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeansunderstand.It'smuchmorenuanced.And
eventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinandhisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.
Andthatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.
AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.
I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedonpersonalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It'sbecauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneinthe
ObamaadministrationandmostAmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthenfomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesoftheinternational
system.
I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbacktodoingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,inmyopinion.
ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmanymeetingswithPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasacompetitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingto
change.He'shadthatviewforalongtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.
Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat'snotgoingtochange.
Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.ItwasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeigncontactsforSobchak.
Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpressiononme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.HewasoneofthefirstguysImetwho
openlytoldmethattheyworkedforSovietintelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.
Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagreetodisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.AndIthinkthat'swhatObamais
doing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshoulddo,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.Iwastheauthor
oftheReset.I'mtoblame.
Whyareyoutoblame?
Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritingabookrightnowabouthowwewererightto
havedonewhatwedid.It'scalledTheReset.
ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseotherthings,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'msayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that's
notgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthinkit'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeepbordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...
Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponsetoRussia'sinternationalisolation.
AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernmentdoingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iused
tobetheambassador,right?
Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwasverycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthe
Putingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofight
against.
ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromtheworld?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?
Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussiaannexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.IfsanctionsareisolatingRussiangovernment
officials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenexttimetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithinksanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.
RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountrywillresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonlystatethatchangestherules
here,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraqandAmerica'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUSoritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethis
perceptioninRussia?
Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterriblepriceforinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,wespentalotofmoneythere,and
weachievedverylittleresults.Andwealienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myansweris
yes.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongsdon'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearighttostealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sa
strangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraqwaswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealsowrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhaveto
say,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?WellwhataboutSyria?Whataboutthis
andwhataboutthat?
Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,oryou'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethoseanalogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmy
view)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussiaisifyouwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.IfyouwereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyour
enthusiasmforCrimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthemajorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbeforannexation.That'sjust
I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,butImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjustice
thatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,DoyouknowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They're
beingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefendthem.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefactthatit'sallsaid
afterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,andnotaboutCrimea.
WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussianpresidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.SohowdoestheWestandtheUSdeal
withthenextRussianpresident,evenifhe'sdemocraticandmuchbetter?
MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'saDemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizetheannexationofCrimea.Toholdontothe
falseillusionthatthat[position]mightchangewouldbemisguidedpolicy.
Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswouldleadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbeembraced.WhatIworryaboutis
thatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecausethere'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangeinRussiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.
Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggoodthatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,istherealtendencyrightnow.It'snot
confrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeaktoRussians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthinkaboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwe
wonderwhatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworryaboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.
Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.WejusthadalmosteverymajorleaderontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snotthere.Hedecidednottocome.I
worrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkaboutRussiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.AndthatwouldbeatragedyforRussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.
So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternationalmeetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeitabundantlyclearthatthiscampaign
waspartofbringingRussiabacktoglobalpolitics.Whytheparadox?
Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhispolicyinSyria.Ithinkweshould
acknowledgethatthatheachievedhisobjective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.HisobjectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.
It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIStheywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhisobjective.
IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalotmorethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sasmartpolicytosaynowthatAssad
needstobepartofthenegotiations,sowecanhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththe
Russians,andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreatactorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthisresult,andwehave
todealwiththem.
Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespectedpartnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcanbeatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotof
attention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,butitdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsaboutMr.PutinasaresultofSyria.
SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionisTurkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.He'sabully,too.Sowhyis
Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehavesimilarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsomeveryparticularissues,wehaveradical
differenceswithMr.Erdoan.HejustsaidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagreeabouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.
Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodealwithhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimforwhatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashington
andthepresidentoftheUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.
You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenotcommonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.
Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUSandothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyofpragmatism,whereyou
cooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrentinterests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughouttheworld.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?
Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overourhistory,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Ourfirstremember,goingallthewaybackto
thebeginningoftheAmericanRepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthewar
againsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthathistory,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebateinWashingtonaboutwhetherwesupportourallies
andourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeendemocracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they'redemocracies.Alloftheautocracieswith
whichwe'vehadalliancerelationshipshavealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmaketransitions.Throughoutourhistory.
Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocraticstability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverourlong-termalliesbecauseautocracies
havetheproblemofremaininginpower.SoIranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensin
autocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwithdemocraticalliances.
ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayortheother.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]
alladministrations(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-term
intereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-termvaluesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartis
theuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.
IlyaKrasilshchik
PaloAlto,California
About
Advertise
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2016Meduza.Allrightsreserved.Design:Charmer.
From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/16/201604:06:08AM
Subject: Re:L.M.A.O.
Indeed.
Apparentlynotaself-parody.
OnSat,Apr16,2016at4:43AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
%seo%
Ru
News
Stories
Likeitornot
1850
youcouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesand
onebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweusetostudyAmericanelections.
They'reeverywhere!
That'sright.
otherasenemies...
system.
Whyareyoutoblame?
against.
perceptioninRussia?
yes.
andwhataboutthat?
todealwiththem.
IlyaKrasilshchik
PaloAlto,California
About
Advertise
Contacts
Senttime: 04/16/201601:43:38AM
To: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Subject: L.M.A.O.
Ru
News
Stories
Likeitornot
1850
youcouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesandone
bookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweusetostudyAmericanelections.
They'reeverywhere!
That'sright.
otherasenemies...
system.
Whyareyoutoblame?
against.
perceptioninRussia?
yes.
andwhataboutthat?
todealwiththem.
IlyaKrasilshchik
PaloAlto,California
Like 354
Tweet
About
Advertise
Contacts
Senttime: 04/16/201601:43:38AM
To: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Subject: L.M.A.O.
Ru
News
Stories
Likeitornot
1850
youcouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesandone
bookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweusetostudyAmericanelections.
They'reeverywhere!
That'sright.
otherasenemies...
system.
Whyareyoutoblame?
against.
perceptioninRussia?
yes.
andwhataboutthat?
todealwiththem.
IlyaKrasilshchik
PaloAlto,California
Like 354
Tweet
About
Advertise
Contacts
Senttime: 04/16/201601:39:11AM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: RESET
consideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattemptedin
US-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwastheUS
serviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanfordUniversity.
AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdownwithMeduza'sIlya
KrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivideRussiaandtheUStoday,
howthetwocountries'leadersshouldstructurerelations,andwhy
AmericasuffersfromashortageofexpertsspecializinginRussia.
Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheard
roughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwith
AmericanspecialistsonRussia.Theleadingexpertsarethestill-living
Sovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthis
tobethecase?
Russia,becauseforthefirsttimeeveryoucouldstudyRussialikeanormal
country.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydata
onpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesand
onebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweuse
tostudyAmericanelections.
Russia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,
butnotthenewgenerationsomewhereinbetween).
crisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences
(economics,politicalscienceI'minthedepartmentofpoliticalsciencehere[at
Stanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.Soifyoulookatthe
superstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaor
ChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationship
betweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatato
comparelotsofcountries.AtmydepartmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholars
arethestars.
individualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesin
America,you'llfindfewerandfewerRussiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon't
teachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.We
teachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffofstudents
especiallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeep
Russianstudiesalive.
explosionofthinktanksinWashington.Youprobablynoticedthemin
Washington,right?
They'reeverywhere!
ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobs
inthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,in
myopinion,isthatthere'snotmuchqualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'ma
Russiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'sno
differencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankin
Washingtoninthenoisethatistheexperts.
AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackand
forth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopolitical
scienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus(likethreeorfourinthewhole
country).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.
programon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsof
studentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaandEurope.Ithinkit'sincumbenton
peoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseI
myselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeen
teachingaboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeign
policy,democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeen
teaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoingtogobacktoteachingRussia.
That'sright.
gettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddle
East.TherewillalwaysbebusinesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEast
willalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdo
business,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimetoguaranteeafuture,in
termsofacareer.
whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontact
withRussia.PresidentMedvedevcametoStanford.Hespokeherein2010,and
wasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethis
wasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewerecompanies
inRussia.Lotsofactivity.
Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.Andso
nowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,
butthosejobsarenotinteresting,unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.Ata
placelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthe
countryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthe
streetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterested
inRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.
ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappens
intheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernment
haveaproblemtodayfindingqualifiedareaexperts?
I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'ma
verybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhe
campaignandfiveinthegovernment)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasinthe
government,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendous
expertise.
presidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheState
Department,atmylevel,wehadalotofstrongpeople.WhenIworkedatthe
embassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,
forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)
HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30
yearsago.
comingup.
Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-Russianrelationschangewithanew
USpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?
ClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsabout
US-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaidsomeveryuniquethingsaboutour
relationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.
Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherof
myoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.Ihaveaprettygood
senseofherpositionsonRussiainfact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterI
introducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomething
aboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,making
BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodeal
withPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou're
goingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportant
atallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asit
wasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,when
there'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.This
time,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.Thereisagroupofvotersin
AmericawhocarealotaboutRussianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropean
descent:Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.
Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.But
theytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthat
Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensof
thousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.
AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).Andthere
arelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,
thisisgoingtobeanissuewhereTrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit's
thosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.
theterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountries
canonlytalkabouteachotherasenemies...
Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.About
onceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.
One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'msometimesspeakingto800peoplein
stateslikeMontana.EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiain
Montana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundredpeopleshowed
upforatalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.
IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowof
thenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyour
generalthesisisabsolutelyright.There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbackto
theColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI've
seenthis.
especiallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamong
elites,especiallyliberalelitesinAmerica.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownvery
strongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soI
havemyownargument.
ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,
aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsay
isthatyou'renotallowedinmyclassormylecturestosaythingslike,Russia
thinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.Haveyou
metMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]
morecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeans
understand.It'smuchmorenuanced.AndeventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinand
hisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howthey
dealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.And
thatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.
Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkit
is.
AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandthe
US?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.
personalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It's
becauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneintheObamaadministrationandmost
AmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthen
fomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesofthe
I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbackto
doingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,
inmyopinion.
competitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingtochange.He'shadthatviewfora
longtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.
Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.
I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat's
notgoingtochange.
Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.It
wasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeign
contactsforSobchak.
Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpression
onme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.Hewas
oneofthefirstguysImetwhoopenlytoldmethattheyworkedforSoviet
intelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethe
collapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.
Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagree
todisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.
AndIthinkthat'swhatObamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshould
do,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanother
Reset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.Iwastheauthorofthe
Reset.I'mtoblame.
Whyareyoutoblame?
[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritinga
bookrightnowabouthowwewererighttohavedonewhatwedid.It'scalled
TheReset.
ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseother
things,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'm
sayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that'snotgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthink
it'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeep
bordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...
Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponseto
Russia'sinternationalisolation.
AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernment
doingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.
Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iusedtobetheambassador,right?
Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,
I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwas
verycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthePutingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.
AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-Russianjustbecause
ofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofight
against.
isolatingRussiangovernmentofficials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenext
timetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithink
sanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.
RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountry
willresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonly
statethatchangestheruleshere,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraq
andAmerica'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUS
oritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethisperceptionin
Russia?
Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterribleprice
forinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,
wespentalotofmoneythere,andweachievedverylittleresults.Andwe
alienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsput
inplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myansweris
yes.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongs
don'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearightto
stealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sastrangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraq
waswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealso
wrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhaveto
say,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,
Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?
WellwhataboutSyria?Whataboutthisandwhataboutthat?
analogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmyview)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussia
isifyouwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.If
youwereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyourenthusiasmfor
Crimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthe
majorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbefor
I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,but
ImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014
whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjusticethatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,
andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,Doyou
knowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They're
beingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefend
them.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemore
interesting.Butthefactthatit'sallsaidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisis
reallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,andnotaboutCrimea.
DemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizethe
annexationofCrimea.Toholdontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]might
changewouldbemisguidedpolicy.
Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswould
leadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbe
there'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangein
Russiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.
Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggood
thatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,isthe
realtendencyrightnow.It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeakto
Russians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthink
aboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwewonder
whatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworry
aboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn't
matter.
Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajorleader
ontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snot
there.Hedecidednottocome.Iworrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkabout
Russiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.Andthatwouldbeatragedyfor
RussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.
meetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeit
abundantlyclearthatthiscampaignwaspartofbringingRussiabackto
globalpolitics.Whytheparadox?
Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,
right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhis
policyinSyria.Ithinkweshouldacknowledgethatthatheachievedhis
objective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.His
objectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.It's
asclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.Mostoftheattackswerenot
againstISIStheywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcredit
thatheachievedhisobjective.
morethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sa
smartpolicytosaynowthatAssadneedstobepartofthenegotiations,sowe
canhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.But
nobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththeRussians,
andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreat
actorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadand
they'veachievedthisresult,andwehavetodealwiththem.
Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespected
partnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcan
beatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotofattention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,but
itdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsabout
Mr.PutinasaresultofSyria.
similarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsome
veryparticularissues,wehaveradicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.Hejust
saidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagree
abouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.
Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodeal
withhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimfor
whatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashingtonandthepresidentoftheUnited
Statesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.
Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUS
andothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyof
interests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughoutthe
world.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?
Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overour
history,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Our
firstremember,goingallthewaybacktothebeginningoftheAmerican
RepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.
Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthe
waragainsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthat
history,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebatein
Washingtonaboutwhetherwesupportouralliesandourinterestsorthesepeople
whowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.
democracies.Alloftheautocracieswithwhichwe'vehadalliancerelationships
havealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmake
stability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverour
long-termalliesbecauseautocracieshavetheproblemofremaininginpower.So
IranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.
Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensin
There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayorthe
other.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]alladministrations(Obama,Bush,
Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetween
interestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-
termintereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-term
valuesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithink
that'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartistheuseofmilitaryforcetopromote
democracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthat
business.
IlyaKrasilshchik
PaloAlto,California
Senttime: 04/16/201601:39:11AM
To: kramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: RESET
tobethecase?
arethestars.
Washington,right?
They'reeverywhere!
That'sright.
termsofacareer.
expertise.
yearsago.
comingup.
seenthis.
havemyownargument.
is.
inmyopinion.
notgoingtochange.
contactsforSobchak.
Reset.I'mtoblame.
Whyareyoutoblame?
TheReset.
against.
Russia?
yes.
matter.
business.
IlyaKrasilshchik
PaloAlto,California
Senttime: 04/16/201601:37:34AM
To: JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>GeneFishel<obolon78@yahoo.com>
Subject: MikeSpeaks(isthattitleredundant)
tobethecase?
arethestars.
Washington,right?
They'reeverywhere!
That'sright.
termsofacareer.
expertise.
yearsago.
comingup.
seenthis.
havemyownargument.
is.
inmyopinion.
notgoingtochange.
contactsforSobchak.
Reset.I'mtoblame.
Whyareyoutoblame?
TheReset.
against.
Russia?
yes.
matter.
business.
Senttime: 04/16/201601:37:34AM
To: JohnWilliams<willijp1@yahoo.com>GeneFishel<obolon78@yahoo.com>
Subject: MikeSpeaks(isthattitleredundant)
tobethecase?
arethestars.
Washington,right?
They'reeverywhere!
That'sright.
termsofacareer.
expertise.
yearsago.
comingup.
seenthis.
havemyownargument.
is.
inmyopinion.
notgoingtochange.
contactsforSobchak.
Reset.I'mtoblame.
Whyareyoutoblame?
TheReset.
against.
Russia?
yes.
matter.
business.
Senttime: 04/16/201601:35:28AM
To: ThomasGraham<tom.graham83@gmail.com>
Subject: McFaul
tobethecase?
arethestars.
Washington,right?
They'reeverywhere!
That'sright.
termsofacareer.
expertise.
yearsago.
comingup.
seenthis.
havemyownargument.
is.
inmyopinion.
notgoingtochange.
contactsforSobchak.
Reset.I'mtoblame.
Whyareyoutoblame?
TheReset.
against.
Russia?
yes.
matter.
business.
Senttime: 04/15/201608:55:36AM
FW:"Judge[TatyanaLeskinaofSaratovRegionalCourtofArbitration]FIREDafteracceptingPutinIMPEACHMENTlawsuit,"
Subject:
From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,April15,20168:55AM
Subject:"Judge[TatyanaLeskinaofSaratovRegionalCourtofArbitration]FIREDafteracceptingPutinIMPEACHMENTlawsuit,"
And:Worker[DmitryDudkinaworkeratafactoryinCHELYABINSK]isharassedbycompanysecurity
afterhischatwithPutinonLiveTV,medusa.io,4/15
And:Constructionworker[bridgebuildingemployeeAntonTyurishev]whoPutinpromisedtohelp[in
2015callin]isDETAINEDnightbeforePresidentsannuallivebroadcast,medusa.io,4/14
And:Westernanalysts[linksprovidedtoEnglishtexts]afterthecallinremarkachangeintheimage
ofPutinontheeveofthe[2016]elections,
http://newsru.com/world/15apr2016/softputin_print.html
FromantiWesternsaberrattlingPutinhasbecomeanIfeelyourpaincomforterfortheRussian
people.
And:Russiansocialmediacomment(veryinteresting)ontheregimesapparentattempttoforce
billionaireMikhailPROKHOROVtosellhisstakeinrbc.ruandrosbalt:
http://www.svoboda.org/content/article/27676295.html
And:TopofficialslikePutinandMedvedevhavehadtheirofficialsalariesincreasedwhilethesalaries
ofaverageRussianshavegoneDOWN:http://www.mk.ru/print/article/1424543/
And:DidSergeiIVANOVjustsufferasignificantsetback?See:
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2963744
And:Ukrainianprosecutordemands15yearSENTENCEforRussiansoldiers[capturedintheLugansk
conflictzoneineasternUkrainelastyear],themoscowtimes.com,4/15
And:ProRussianmilitantsSTORM[Ukrainian]ATOforcesinNovotroyitske,unian.info,4/15
And:OngroundinSyria,SCANTevidenceofdrawdowntrumpetedbyKremlin,reuters.com,4/15
And:FormerYANUKOVYCHaide[PaulMANAFORT]isnowoneofTRUMPstopadvisors:EliLake,
Trumpjusthiredhisnextscandal,Bloomberg.com,4/14
DavidKramer,aformerseniorStateDepartmentofficialwhoworkedonRussiaandUkrainetoldme
ManafortwasapersistentLOBBYISTforYanukovychwhenhewasingovernment.Someonewho
hassuchcloserelationswithnotoriouskleptocratsdoesntbelonganywherenearanyofour
presidentialcandidates,CharlesDavidson,executivedirectorofKleptocracyInitiativeatHudson
Institute,toldme.
From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 04/15/201602:14:51PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes15April2016
Attachments: IN15April16.docx
InternetNotes15April2016
Moreonthecall-in(DomesticaffairsoverforeignpolicyNomoregiftsfromPutin)
Thecall-inSMSmessages(Oncorruption)
Rapidresultsfromthecall-in
QuotesfromPutinscallin
Putinsincomeandproperty
SoloveyonRussianpropagandaabroadandthePanamaPapers
RossiyaTVonNavlaniysSecretcorrespondence
AcrisisintheRussianopposition?(Kasyanov)
Kamenshchikhousearrestextended
ChaykavsBastrykinonKamenshchik
Moreonthecall-in(DomesticaffairsoverforeignpolicyNomoregiftsfromPutin)
Seeyesterdaysnotes
StanovayanotednotlongagothatPutinwasturningbacktodomesticaffairsSeethe8Aprilnotes.
Putinanswered80questionsVedomostinotesthatdomesticissuesdominatedthecall-in:
http://www.vedomosti.ru/politics/articles/2016/04/15/637808-prezident-predpochel
Themajorityofthequestionswereabouteconomicandsocialmattersbadroads,wagearrears,thedeficitofaffordable
medicines,theenergybridgetoCrimea,reformingcommunalservices,aswellasmanualcontrolquestionsandrequestsfrom
citizens.Therewasacomplaintfromfishermenwhohadntbeenpaidandtowardstheendoftheprogram,itwasannounced
thatrepresentativesoftheProsecutorsoffice,Rostrud,andtheInvestigativeCommitteewereontheirwaytolookintothe
matterTheCarnegieCentersAleksandrBaunovsaysthatthefocusondomesticmattersmeansthattheKremlinisnotplanning
anyfurtherforeigninterventionstherewasmoretalkaboutproblemswithgarbagethanaboutUkraine.Lastyear,Putinseemed
boredandannoyedbydomesticissues,thisyearhewastryingtoshowhewastakingcareofmanagingthingsathome.
AnotheronefromVedomosti:http://www.vedomosti.ru/opinion/articles/2016/04/15/637818-krizisnaya-pryamaya
Lastyear,Putin,commentingondomesticaffairs,toldeveryonetobepatient,thatthegovernmenthadananti-crisisplan.Andthis
year?ThesameproblemscameupandPutinsaid,yes,medicineistooexpensive,communalservicesratesaretoohigh,the
roadsarebad,IunderstandInthepast,theclassiccall-informatwasusedtoconvincecitizensthattheplansinoperationand
wouldwork.Thistimearound,nobodygotanygiftsfromthepresident,eitherrealorsymbolicones(Comment:Thereasbit
yesterdayaboutPutingivingawayhiswatchtosomeoneinthepast.Hejokedaboutit,sayinghewasntwearinga
watch),nopromisesthistime(Comment:Therewereafew,justnotasmany,maybe)PolitilogAlekseyMakarkinsaysthat
Russiansocietyhasgonethroughadenialphaseonthecrisis,thenaphaseofbelievingitrepresentedanopportunityforchange,
andisnowinastateofdepression.Putindidntspendsomuchtimeonstressingpositivestatisticsthistimesocietyisatastage
ofnolongerbeingabletobearthedissonanceofthehappytalkwhilefacingtherealityofthecrisisintheireverydaylives
Thecall-inSMSmessages(Oncorruption)
Ane-mailfromareader:
Problem:Ican'tfindavideoonyoutubethatreplicatesthelivefeed.
But
Gotothe2:38:25markofthisone&listenastwobusinessguystalkaboutchecks&corruptionwithgreatbitterness.When
Putinansweredwegotsomethinglike"whenwillwebedonewithcorruption"flashedonthescreenandtheaudiencelaughs.Putin
referstothelaughter&pointsduringhisanswer:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K3hbgu4f3No
Rapidresultsfromthecall-in
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/five-rapid-results-from-putins-call-in-marathon/565961.html
ForhaplessofficialsacrossRussia,PresidentPutin'sannualcall-inmarathonisawake-upcalllikenoother.
Thisyear,thepresidentreceivedmorethan5millionquestions,manyaskingforhisassistance.Theshowlastedfor3hours40
minutes,withPutinanswering80questionsfromacrossthenation.
Afterpresentingtheirconcernstothegreatleaderhimself,Russiansalloverthecountryarenowseeingtheirproblemsbeingsolved.
HereisjustasmallselectionofthingsthathavealreadychangedforordinaryRussiancitizens,lessthan24hoursafterPutin's
televisionphone-inwiththenation.
BrokenRoadsinOmsk
OfficialsintheSiberiancityofOmskhavepromisedtorepair21roadsinthecityafteroneresidentcomplainedtoPutinduringthe
show'sveryfirstcall.
Lookattheconditionofourroads:oneholeafteranother.Ourcarsbreakdownandwheelsfalloff.Thegovernmentdoesnotrespondto
ourconcernsandrequests,OmskresidentYekaterinatoldthepresidentviaavideocall,evenshowinghimoneofthepot-holedroads.
Omskauthoritieshavereactedbeforetheprogramhadevenended.Beforethreehourswereout,onetelevisionpresenterannouncedthe
roadswouldbemendedbyMay1.
Children'sCampforYaroslavlWonderkid
Oneacademically-giftedeightyear-oldfromYaroslavl,IlyaRayevsky,complainedtothepresidentthathehadnotbeenacceptedinto
theprestigiousArteksummercampduetohisyoungage.
Thisisobviousneglect,saidPutin.Itmeansthatthosewhoareorganizingthiscampwerenotwonderkidsthemselves,andwe'llfix
that.
Yaroslavlofficialssteppedintosolvetheproblem,promisingthattheboywillattendArtekduringtheupcomingsummer.
Ilya,whoisalreadystudyinginthefifthgradeandisfondofscience,hasbeeninvitedtoMoscow'sSkolkovoinnovationfoundationto
sharehisideas.
CriminalcasesoverunpaidwagesinSakhalinandNorthOssetia
ComplaintsfromworkersatseveralRussianbusinessesthattheirwageshadbeendelayedsparkedPutin'soutrage-andquick
responsesfromofficials.
Russia'sInvestigativeCommitteeintheSakhalinregionopenedacriminalcaseintothedirectoroftheOstrovnoyfishplantonShikotan
islandminutesaftertheworkersturnedtothepresidenttohelpthemclaimunpaidwages.
WorkerstoldPutinthattheyfoundthemselvesinthepositionofslaves,thattheyhadn'treceivedwagesforseveralmonths,andthat
theydidn'tevenhavemoneytoleavetheisland.Theyalsosaidthatanappealtotheprosecutor'sofficehadbroughtnoresults.
Theplantcurrentlyowes53ofitsworkers6.8millionrubles($102,000)inunpaidwork.OnFriday,thecompany'sdirectorgeneral,
AlexeiPopov,apologizedtostaffforthedelaysandreimbursedthemwithpartoftheirowedwages.Heexplainedthatdelaysinwere
causedbyabadcatch.
AcriminalcasehasalsobeenopenedintoBPS-Gidrostroy,abuildingcompanyinRussia'srepublicofNorthOssetia,followingaphone-
incomplaint.BPS-Gidrostroyowesunpaidwagesworth63millionrubles($947,000)to750ofitsemployees.
Long-awaitedwagesforChelyabinskworkers
AnothercaseinvolvingdelayedpaymentsraisedduringPutin'scall-inshowhadahappierending.
EmployeesattheUralavtopritsepfactoryinChelyabinskreceivedtheirwagesinfullthreehoursafteraskingPutinforhelp.
FatheroffourDmitryDudkintoldPutinthatworkershadn'treceivedwagesforthreemonths.
AlthoughthePresidentnotedthattheautomotivesectorhadbeenbadlyaffectedbythecrisis,hetoldtheaudience,buttonotpay
wages-itshouldn'tbelikethis.
TheRussianInvestigativeCommitteebranchintheChelyabinskregionhasalsostartedthelookingintothecase.
Theplantpaiditsemployeesatotalof13millionrubles($195,000)inunpaidwages.
PlotsoflandforlargefamiliesintheStavropolregion
AmotherfromthetownofNevinnomysskintheStavropolregionwasgivenaplotoflandfromlocalauthoritiesaftershepleadedfor
Putintohelp.
Inherletter,MariaSolomatinasaidherfamilyhadbeengivenaplotoflandintheStavropolregionbuthadlaterlostitduetochangesin
regionallawthatreclassifiedlargefamilieslikeherstobenot'inneed.'
Solomatinasappealcouldmakethelifeofotherlargefamiliesintheregioneasiertoo.
GovernoroftheStavropolregion,VladimirVladimirov,hasannouncedthatthelocalgovernmentwillsimplifytheregistrationprocedurefor
largefamiliesinordertoimprovetheirlivingconditions.
Comment:Putinscallinislikeoneofthoseaudiencesakingmighthavehadinwhichthesubjectscometopleadfor
justiceandvoicecomplaintsaboutthelords.Agoodmonarchstepsintohelpthepeopleandconfirmhisstatusin
dispensingjustice.Putinsbeengoodatithiseffectivenessinplayingthatroleisonereasonforhisrelative
popularity.Russiansexpecttobemistreated,theyexpectchaos,buttheyalsoexpecttheleadertostepintocorrect
theworstinjusticesfromtimetotimeoratleastslaptheboyarsaroundalittle,givingthepeoplesomesatisfactionin
thatregard.Butwoetothemonarchwholosestheauraofpower.Thatstrouble.
QuotesfromPutinscallin
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putins-annual-call-in-brightest-quotes/565842.html
Putin's14thannualcall-inmarathonthisThursdaylastedthreeandahalfhours:enoughtimeforthepresidenttoanswer80questions
fromacrossRussia.
Ofcourse,theseasonedstatesmanwassuretousetheplatformtoshowcasehisskill,wit,andpoliticalknowledge.
Hereisashortwrapupofthesession'sbestquotes.
Ifsomeonehasdecidedtodrown,noonecanhelpthem.
Anunusualresponsetoaquestionfrom12-yearoldVaryaKuznetsova,whoaskedthePresidentwhichforeignleaderhewouldsave
fromawaterydeath:TurkishPresidentRecepErdogan,orUkraine'sPetroPoroshenko.Putinshowednofavorites,althoughhedidadd,
Russiawillgiveahelpinghandtoanypartnerwhowantsit.Earlier,Putinsaidthat:Turkeyhasbeen,andremains,afriendand
partnerofRussia.However,problemsarisewiththeleadersofcountrieswhoseresponsestosituationsareinadequate.
HereinRussia,wecanimaginethebribeintheformofgreyhoundspuppies,butviolinsandcellos?I'veneverheardofthat!
PutinusedtheshowtocommentonthePanamaPapers,aleakwhichexposedthesecretoffshoreaccountsofmanyfromPutin'sinner
circle.Inparticular,hisclosefriendcellistSergeiRolduginwastargeted.AccordingtoPutin,allthemoneyearnedbyRolduginwas
spentonthemusicalinstruments.
"Husbandandwifearethesamedevil."
PutinusedthisoldRussianproverbtorespondtoquestionsonU.S.PresidentialcandidateHillaryClinton.Putincouldn'thelpbutnote
howlongthesametwopartieshadbeeninpowerinthissupposedflagshipofdemocracy."ThereweretheBushes,hesaid,andnow
thewifeofBillClintonisrunningforpresident.Whereisthediversity?"
"Thefewerteethyouhave,themoreyoulikeporridge"
OnelittlegirlaskedPutinifhetoowasforcedtoeatporridgewhenhewasachild.Thepresidentsaidthathewasneverbeingforcedto
doanythinghedidn'twantto,althoughhehasalwayslikedporridgeandstilleatsiteachmorningwithpleasure.
"ThereissuchsininRussia,andwewillprayforforgiveness"
Putinwasaskedbyonecallerifhesworewhennotbeingfilmed."Sometimes,butIonlyswearatmyself,heconfessed.Ithappens
whenIamdissatisfiedwithmyself."
Putinsincomeandproperty
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putins-income-increased-to-89-million-rubles-in-2015/566004.html
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinsofficialincomeroseby1millionrubles(roughly$15,000)in2015,accordingtohisannualdeclarationof
propertyandearnings.Itbringshistotalannualpayto8.9millionrubles($133,000),theInterfaxnewsagencyreportedFriday.
TheRussianleaderalsodeclaredamodest1500squaremetersofland,a77squaremeterapartmentandagarage.Healsohastheuseofa
state-ownedapartmentwithitsownparkingspace.
Theamountofpropertyofficiallyownedbythepresidenthasnotchangedsince2014.Healsodeclaredthreevehicles:aSovietGAZ--21,a
'Niva'modelLada,andaSkiffboattrailer.
TherewasnomentionofPutin'sallegednew$1billionmansion,oranyincomefromsharesorinvestments.
In2007,aCIAreportestimatedPutin'swealthataround$40billionastatementonwhichhedeclinedtocomment.Hehasbeennamedas
Forbes'mostpowerfulmanforthethirdyearinarow.

SoloveyonRussianpropagandaabroadandthePanamaPapers
http://rus.postimees.ee/3655049/valerij-solovej-rossija-mstit-germanii-cherez-smi
CitingthestoryofLizawhoclaimedshewasrapedbymigrantsinGermany(Seeyesterdaysnotes),SoloveynotesthatRussian-
languageTVwasveryeffectiveatstirringupRussianslivinginGermany.Generallyspeaking,TVpropagandaiseffectiveamong
RussiansandmanyRussianspeakersintheformerUSSR(helaternotesthatLatviashutdownRussian-languageSputnikTV,
whichhethinksisanoverreactionalotofthosepeople,especiallytheyoungerones,preferlivinginLatviatoRussia)andin
Germany.RTisanotherstoryitsnotveryinfluentialinEurope.ItsmeantasanalternativetoAnglo-Saxonmediaaroundthe
world,especiallyinIndia,LatinAmerica,andSEAsia,butitdoesnthavemuchinfluenceinEurope.TheKremlinisusingTVto
tryandstrengthenitspositiononforeignpolicyissues.AsfarasGermany,theresanelementofpersonalvengeance:Putinthought
hehadaspecialpersonalrelationshipwithMerkelanditturnsoutthathedidnt.Butpropagandaisaimedatstrengtheningtieswith
somepoliticalforcesinEuropewhoarereadyforcooperationwithRussiapartiesontheright,conservativeparties,Euro
sceptics.TheKremlinsaimistoweakenanyanti-Russiancoalition
WhatkindofimpactdidthePanamaPapersscandalhaveonPutinsimageabroadandinRussia?
SoloveyanswersthatinRussia,itdidntchangeanythingthosewhoconsiderthemselvesinoppositionstillare,withmore
evidenceconfirmingtheirviews.Thosewhosupportvlastorareneutralstillare.Thescandalhadmoreimpactabroadit
representsaseriousprocessthatwillhaveveryimportantstrategicconsequences.Therewillbeademonizationofapartofthe
elite,notonlytheRussianelite,either.Stateofficialswereinvolved,thereisasuspicionofcorruptionSincetheAmericansthink
thatthewholeworldfallsundertheirjurisdiction,theyllopencriminalcases.TheAmericanstatemachineworkslikeabulldozer
slow,butinevitably,itwillfindyouanywhereOneconsequenceofthescandalwillbeRussiasselfisolation.Fromthepointof
viewoftheRussianelite,thescandalisdirectedatthetopoftheRussiansystemandtheUSstandsbehindit.Reachingagreement
withtheUSissimplynotpossible.Theconsequenceswillbeveryserious,buttheprocesswilltakeawhiletoplayout
RussianTVisnttalkingaboutthescandalandforalargepartofRussiansociety,thescandaldoesntexist.Somehaveheard
aboutit,buttheydontunderstandit.Iftheoffshorestorycomesup,itwillbeinconnectionwithPoroshenko,butnottheRussian
presidentThestoryisthattheoffshoreswereforstrategicreserves,skirtingsanctions,butthereareother,conspiratorialstories.
Therearemoredocumentsyettobeseenthescandalwillcontinueanditwontbepossibletohidefromit.
InvestigativeCommitteewantstoquestionBrowderaboutMagnitskiysdeath
Recallthisitemfromthe11Aprilnotes:
[RossiyaTVonNavlaniysSecretcorrespondence
Comment:ThefirstattackwasonKasyanov.NowitsNavalniysturn.TheaimiswhatBelkovskiymentionedpreventacolorrevolutionand
foreigninterferenceintheelections,controlthepoliticalprocess
http://www.vesti.ru/doc.html?id=2741466#
FromDmitriyKiselevsprogramItsaboutNavalniy(describedasacorruptrecidivist)e-mailing(andapparentlyinSkypeconversationswith)
anotherKremlinenemy,WilliamBrowder(aswindlerwhoinspiredtheMagnitskiylist),withVGTRKsYevgeniyPopovdescribingthesecret
correspondenceasrevealingchannelsbetweentheRussianoppositionandtheUSandUK.FormerBerezovskysecuritymanSergeySolokolov
(Comment:ImnotsurewherehecomesintothisstoryasaninformantongoingsonintheUK?)saysthecorrespondencewaspickedupoffof
serverssetupbytheCIAandtheMI6asachannelfortheiragents(FreedomNavalniyandSolomanBrowder)forplottingtheoverthrowof
theRussianconstitutionalsystem(OperationDrozhorTremor)ThespecialoperationDrozhdatesbackto1986andthen-CIADirector
WilliamCasey,whoplannedtheoverthrowofthesystemintheUSSRandEasternEurope.Partoftheplanwastogaincontroloverfinancialflows
andassets.
FormerMVDinvestigatorPavelKarpov(Comment:HewasinvolvedintheMagnitskiyaffair)saysthatBrowderandNavalniyworkparalleltoone
another,aswellastogetherTheyfirstmadecontactin2006,whenBrowderwasalreadybannedfromenteringRussiaandNavalniywasayoung
Yablokoactivist.BrowderwantedNavalniytohelphimwithgreenmailprojectsNavalniywasinitiallyskeptical.BrowdertoldNavalniyhewould
beaherooftheminorityshareholdersandwouldaccumulatereputationalcapitalEventuallyNavalniyagreedandBrowdersuggestedhe
startwithVTB.BrowderstargetlistincludedGazprom,Rosneft,Sberbank,LukoilandSurgutneftegaz.ButNavalniyneededmoney,soBrowder
gothimincontactwithbankerVladimirAshurkov(Comment:IthinkAshukrov,whoatonetimeworkedforAlfa,wasachannelforAlfamoneyto
thenon-systemicopposition.IthinkAlfasupportedtheprotestwavein2011-2012Seethenotesfrom11January17May201529
December2014and6November2014formoreonAshurkov).ThereportreproducescorrespondenceitclaimswasfromanMI6controllerwho
channeledR100milliontoNavalniyandcompany.
WhenMagnitskiy(portrayedhereasengaginginfraudhimself)wasarrested,BrowderaskedforNavalniyshelp.Navalniysuggestedthatthey
playupMagnitskiyssuffering,somethingRussianswouldrespondto.ButtheWesterncontroller(MI6AgentBelt)wasunhappythestory
wasntgeneratingenoughinterest,sothebestthingtodowasuseconnectionstoseetoitthatmedicalaidtoMagnitskiywascutoff.Then
Magnitskiydied.SergeyKurginyanchimesintosaythatthepersonmostinterestedinseeingMagnitskiydeadwasBrowder.Browder
subsequentlybeganhiscampaigntogettheUStosetupaMagnitskiylistNavalniyconductedtheinformationcampaigninRussia.
AnotherBrowder-NavalniyprojectwastheinformationattackonProsecutorGeneralChayka,beginningwiththeallegedlyillegalbusinessesofhis
son(See,forinstance,the7December2016notesComment:RecallthatChaykablamedBrowderforthekompromat)thisfollowed
investigatorssearchingtheofficesofBrowdersfirmsonCyprus.]
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article.php?id=565839
RussiasInvestigativeCommitteeintendstoquestionBritish-AmericaninvestorWilliamBrowderaboutthemurderofwhistleblowerSergei
Magnitsky,theCommittee'swebsitereportedThursday.
SpeculationontheinvolvementofWilliamBillBrowderanoutspokenPutincriticwasbroughttotheCommittee'sattentionbyformer
RussianInteriorMinistryinvestigator,PavelKarpov.
InalettertotheInvestigativeCommittee,KarpovsuggestedthatBrowder,Magnitsky'semployeratthecompanyHermitageCapital,mayhave
beeninvolvedinhisdeath.HealsospeculatedontheinvolvementofMI6agents.
Magnitskydiedin2009undersuspiciouscircumstanceswhileinpolicecustody.Heallegedlyhadjustuncoveredataxfraudinvolvingseveral
Russianofficials.
OnDec.14,2012,theU.S.introducedtheMagnitskyAct,whichbannedcertainRussiansinvolvedinhumanrightsviolationsfromenteringthe
U.S.Thelistcurrentlyincludes39individuals,RIANovostireported.
Fromyesterdaysnotes:
[AcrisisintheRussianopposition?(Kasyanov)
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/crisisinrussianoppositionastwowithdrawfromelectionprimaries/565739.html
TwoofRussiasleadingoppositionpoliticiansannouncedWednesday13Apriltheirwithdrawalfromelectionprimariesbeingorganisedbythe
PARNASdemocraticcoalition.
IvanZhdanov.HeadofLawatAlexeyNavalny'sAnti-CorruptionFoundation(FBK)andIlyaYashin,PARNASpoliticalpartydeputychairman,
announcedtheywouldnotbestandingwithinthespaceof24hours.
TheirreactioncomesafterPARNASleader,MikhailKasyanov,announcedhisrefusaltowithdrawfromthelistofproposedcandidates,despite
recentinvolvementinawell-publicisedscandal.
KasyanovwastheonlypoliticiantobeincludedonthelistofpotentialcandidatessincelastDecemberwhenthecoalitionwasformed.
IthinkthatKasyanov'spositiondestroysvoters'trustandscrapsusfromtheabilitytobeaneffectiveoppositioncoalition,Yashinsaid.
Zhdanov'scitedsimilarreasonstoYashin,butaddedthathewastoobusywithotherpoliticalprojects.
Thelistwouldhavebeenmuchmorerespectableifitsleaderwaselectedatprimaries.Opennessisthecorevalueoftheopposition,Zhdanov
toldTheMoscowTimes.Hestressedthatthewithdrawalwashispersonaldecisionandthathehadn'theardofanybodyelseplanningtoquit
theircandidacy.
ThedecisiontogiveKasyanovtheprivilegeofheadingthelistofcandidateshadbeencontroversial.Thecoalitionwascriticisedforbeingnon-
democraticandforgivingtheKremlinachancetoconcentrateanti-oppositionsmearsonasinglefigure.
Thatchancewasusedwhenstate-controlledtelevisionchannelNTVairedgrainyvideofootageofMikhailKasyanovandacolleague,Natalia
Pelevina,inbedtogether.Theyareheardcriticizingtheiroppositioncolleagues.
Givensuchcircumstances,wewouldbeansweringidioticquestionsaboutwhosleptwithwhomandwhocalledsomeonenamesinbed
throughoutthecourseofthewhole[StateDumaelection]campaign,Yashinexplained.
KasyanovtoldKommersantFMradiothathesawnoproblemswithYashin'schoice.It'shisdecisionandhehastherightforanydecisionand
it'shisopinion,hesaid.
UnlikeYashin,Zhdanovhassaidthathisdecisionhadnothingtodowiththepublicationofthefilm.ThelawyerbelievethatPARNASstillhave
goodchancesattheparliamentaryelections,becausethere'snoalternative.
Democraticcoalitionmembersnowhavetochoosebetweenbadandworse,thepoliticalexpertAlexeyMakarkintoldTheMoscowTimes.
MakarkinbelievesthefilmscandalwillpushoppositionmembersawayfromKasyanov.Healsosaidthatvoteractivityattheprimariesappeared
tobelow,andthatcancellingthemcouldbeanoption.
Atthesametime,Makarkinalsobelievesthatthescandalwillnotresultinanydramaticchanges:PARNASwillsurvive,andYashinwillprobably
entertheelectoralcampaigninasingle-memberdistrict.
Thesituationingeneralisaplustoeveryone,notaminus,GrigoryMelkonyants,co-chairofGolos,anindependentelectionsmonitor,toldThe
MoscowTimes.Itisgoodwhensuchthingspassbeforetheelectioncampaign.Whenitstarts,nothingwilldistractthem.Itseemslikethey[the
opposition]areatastagewhentheyneedtoclarifytherelationship.]
KasyanovsaysheplansonkeepingthefirstspotonthePARNASpartylistforhimself,scandalornoscandal,andregardlessof
theresultsoftheprimaries.SoYashinhasrefusedtotakepartinthepartyprimaries.Belkovskiy:whatweareseeingshowsthe
contradictionsandconflictswithinthenon-systemicopposition.Butthiswontmeanthetotalcollapseofthedemocraticcoalition
itsoftoomuchvaluetopeoplelikeKasyanovandNavalniy.YashinrepresentsNavalniysteam,whichwantstoseizecontrolof
theoppositionandtakechargeofitandthereisareasontheythinkthatway.AcertainpartofPARNASsassets,regional
structures,considerNavalniytheirleadermorethanKasyanovandviewNavalniyashavingbetterpoliticalprospects.Thestruggle
forpowerbetweenKasyanovandNavalniyiscertainlydamagingtothenon-systemicoppositionandcouldcauseasplitatatime
theoppositionneedstoconsolidateWeunderstandthattheKremlinwilllikelynotallowalargemajorityofoppositioncandidates
intotheDumaandundersuchconditions,consolidationbecomesevenmoreimportant.Theresalsoabattlegoingonforthe
political-morallegacyofBorisNemtsov.AlotofPARNASactivistsstillconsiderhimasamoreauthoritativefigurethan
Kasyanov.IfNavalniyandYashincanconvinceactiviststhattheyrepresentNemtsovslegacybetterthanKasyanov,thenthat
wouldbeatrumpcardinthestruggleovertheparty.
BelkovskiysaysheagreesthatNavalniyhasbetterprospectsasaleaderthanKasyanov,butmorallyhesupportsKasyanovone
cantuseKremlinprovocationsasabasisforinfightingintheopposition
Kamenshchikhousearrestextended
RecallthattheProsecutorsofficehastriedtohaveKamenshchikreleasedfrompre-trialcustody,whiletherivalInvestigative
Committee(SK)hasresistedthat.
Fromthe29Marchnotes:
[ChaykavsBastrykinonKamenshchik
Comment:Yesterday,wereadthatDeputyProsecutorGeneralVladimirMalinovskiyhadrecentlymadesomedemandstotheInvestigative
CommitteesBastrykinregardinglegalviolationsduringtheinvestigationofacaseagainstDomodedovoownerDmitriyKamenshchikanddid
notgetanyreply.WevebeenreadingthatRotenbergwantstotakecontrolofDomodedovoandwasbehindthecaseagainstKamenshchiksee,
forinstance,the26Februarynotes.Ofcourse,aswrittenupinthesenotesmanytimes,BastrykinandChaykahavebeenrivalsforalongtime
andhaveclashedfrequently.
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/72416.html
DeputyProsecutorGeneralVladimirMalinovskiyhasnotedthathisoffice,actinginitsoversightcapacity,hadearliercalledontheSKtoclosethe
caseandreleaseKamenshchikfromhousearrest,butwasignored(Kommersantreportedthestoryon22March:
http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/2944051ChaykavsBastrykinregardingKamenshchikalsocameupinthe26Februarynotes).Nowthe
ProsecutorsofficeisthreateningtotaketheSKtocourtoverthecase.]
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/moscow-court-extends-house-arrest-of-domodedovo-airport-owner/565959.html
AMoscowcourthasextendedthehousearrestofDomodedovoairportownerDmitryKamenshchikuntilJuly28,theInterfaxnews
agencyreportedFriday.
TheBasmannycourtgrantedapreliminaryinvestigationintochargesconnectedtoterrorattacksattheairportin2011.
RussiasInvestigativeCommitteeannouncedthearrestofKamenshchikinFebruaryunderArticle238oftheCriminalCode,forproviding
servicesthatdonotmeetsafetyrequirements,resultinginthedeathoftwoormorepeople.
Hewasdenieda50millionrublebail.
TheDomodedovobombattackin2011killed37peopleandinjured170attheairport'sinternationalarrivalsloungeonJan.24,2011.
MilitantIslamistgroupCaucasusEmirate,aterroristgroupbannedinRussia,claimedresponsibilityfortheincident.
Senttime: 04/16/201601:35:28AM
To: ThomasGraham<tom.graham83@gmail.com>
Subject: McFaul
tobethecase?
arethestars.
Washington,right?
They'reeverywhere!
That'sright.
termsofacareer.
expertise.
yearsago.
comingup.
seenthis.
havemyownargument.
is.
inmyopinion.
notgoingtochange.
contactsforSobchak.
Reset.I'mtoblame.
Whyareyoutoblame?
TheReset.
against.
Russia?
yes.
matter.
business.

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