Consequence Modelling

COWI has substantial expertise in

carrying out advanced and cost-effi-
cient consequence modelling. Our Density Temperature Velocity Ice/dew Concentration
services typically start with defining
representative release scenarios and kg/m3 K m/s g/kg ppm
initial release conditions. The effect of
mitigating measures such as auto- Propane 1,322 270.1 5.23 0.000 26,618
matic closing of emergency shut-off
Air 1,238 284.5 1.89
valves and the time they take to close
can be taken into account in our
models. Atmospheric dispersion of
harmful substances can be modelled
using an array of computing tools.
The effect of fires and explosions on
humans and the environment or pos-
sible domino effects can be esti-
mated.
We provide credible results to com-
plex problems such as the estimation
of concentration profiles as a function 0.0 m 30.0 m
GReAT

Dense gasjet dispersion

Fields of application
Quantification of risk reduction by
emergency shut-down systems
activation of isolation valves
blow-down of process pressure
to safe location
improving natural ventilation in
confined areas
minimising hot work
Decision support in design phase
location and activation sequence
of emergency shut-down valves
effects of reducing inventories or
making process conditions less
severe
domino effects
emergency planning
0232-1302-017e-04c
of time or the influence of complex
building geometry on atmospheric
dispersion patterns.
We focus on client needs and tailor
our solutions in a cost-effective man-
ner. Our services range from simple
first-estimate models, through stand-
ard commercial software packages,
to state-of-the-art CDF modelling of
for example smoke dispersion pat-
terns in tunnels.
Environmental Consequences
We specialise in environmental model-
ling of emissions from industrial instal-
lations to the air, the sea, water-
courses and ground water.
Release, dispersion and ignition
Our specialists can model the physi-
cal conditions such as:
Vapour fraction in a hydrocarbon
mixture if accidentally released,
Flow rate of a liquefied gas if acci-
dentally released, where vapour
fraction increases as the pressure
falls,
Dispersion of accidentally released
dense gas, taking jet effects and at-
mospheric dispersion into account,
Time dependent ignition probability,
Heat radiation from a burning gas
cloud,
Effects of explosions on structures.

Decision support in land-use

planning
safety distances
spacing of process equipment

turn
Individual and Societal Risk

Estimates of the individual risk to the

most exposed person inside and out-

side a plant, and of the societal risk
to the population in general are used

by COWI for decision-making at and

near plants handling hazardous sub-
stances.
Both these estimates involve:

Frequency - the estimated

frequency with which an accident
may be expected to occur, Individual risk level close to a natural gas installation.

Consequence area - the area sur-

rounding an accident, that could be
effected by its consequences,
Ignition probability due to equip- Computational Fluid Dynamics
ment and personnel, (CFD)
Explosion probability and size of CFD is particularly useful when re- between the elements in the grid is
explosive gas clouds, leases may take place in areas with used to estimate the consequences
Vulnerability exposure to an effect obstructions such as buildings, pro- of an accident. The preparation of a
that would be sufficient to cause cess vessels or piping. CFD requires CFD model is time consuming and
fatality. a model of a finite volume of space to other methods of consequence cal-
be constructed and subdivided into a culation may be more appropriate un-
Probit equations estimate vulnerability grid of smaller elements or cells. The less the effects of obstructions are of
by predicting the fraction of fatalities flow of heat, mass and momentum critical importance.
expected in a sample population ex-
posed to a specified effect. The
specified effect may be exposure to
heat radiation, smoke or toxic gas.
The effect is expressed in terms of a
dose. This combines the exposure
time and level of exposure, i.e. toxic
gas concentration or heat radiation
level. CDF modelling of toxic release

HYSYS Process simulation and estimation of the physical properties of any mixture of chemical sub-stances.

FLOWmaster Modelling of transient release rates of leaks and ruptures in liquid and gas pipelines and piping systems.

FLASHLIQ Modelling of transient releases of liquified gases from pressure vessels.

STAR-CD CFD (computational fluid dynamics) modelling of flow with complex boundary conditions.

PHAST Modelling of releases of flammable and toxic substances, and the potential accidents that could result (e.g. fi-
res, explosion, dispersion of toxic gas clouds).

GReAT Modelling dispersion of heavy gas or flashing liquid jet releases and modelling the toxic or flammable limits for
neutral gas dispersion as a function of release rate, height, weather conditions etc.

JET-FLAME Modelling the flammable limits of a gas jet and the distances from the flame to critical heat radiation intensi-
ties.

CONFINEX Calculation of explosion overpressure in confined or ventilated spaces.

Consequence calculations software