Economic Effects of the Green Revolution

in Pakistan
By Ben Aaron

The Green Revolution was a watershed moment in the history of civilization. Just as the
development of agriculture in the Fertile Crescent permitted the development of sedentary society,
the Green Revolution enabled unprecedented population growth through advancements in
chemistry, industrial agriculture, and agricultural biotechnology. While much of the focus on the
green revolution is scientific in nature, asking what revolution means for the environment or
population dynamics, the social results of the revolution remain debated, with relatively little inquiry.
This paper seeks to examine the Green Revolutions effects on the prices of Labor and agricultural
products in South Asia.

First, this paper will seek to evaluate the pre-revolutionary economic condition of South Asia, as a
means of establishing a baseline. Second, this paper will examine the effects of the green revolution
on the supply and prices of agricultural products. Finally, this paper will examine the prices of labor
in south Asia as an effect of the green revolution, and examine the benefits and setbacks to the
region. To open this inquiry, this paper will begin by looking at the raw data from the green
revolution.

For comparison purposes we will begin by looking at the general Green Revolution changes in
Punjab and using developments in Mexico as a frame of reference. Punjab was the first state to
widely adopt the new wheat technologies associated width the green revolution of the late 1960s.
(Byerlee A 195). A key technology driving the early green revolution was high yielding varieties of
wheat (HYVs), introduced as a product of genetic engineering. Mexico experienced a parallel
agricultural boon, owed to the use of improved seeds introduced in the 1950s as well as
increases in the use of a irrigated land, fertilizer, pesticide, and feed. (Cornejo and Shumway 746).
The parallel lines of growth in Punjab and Mexico provide a well-studied example to work from when
examining South Asia. During the decade of the 1970s Mexico experienced a growth of 3.48%
output in wheat, and an 8.72% increase in livestock output (Cornejo and Shumway 746). From 1972
to 1987, Punjab experienced a wheat yield increase of 710 Kg/Hectare, or a 2.32% increase
(Byerlee A 160). These growths in agricultural production attributed to HYV wheat, coupled with
increased use of machine labor enabling the cutting of costs in other aspects of farm operation.
Machine labor was one of the many ways the industrial world manifested itself in third-world
agriculture. It is clear that machinery labour has rapidly substituted for human and animal labour
over the period under analysis [1972-1987] (Byerlee A 160). The reduced need for human labor
drove down demand, lowering wages. In addition, the growth of petrochemicals, primarily fertilizer
and herbicides stimulated higher wheat yields and reclaim land lost to weeds such as phalaryis
minor [which prove] difficult or impossible to control manually (Byerlee A 160). The Green
Revolution innovations brought about unprecedented growth in the agricultural sectors from the
period from the 1960s to the 1980s.

The coming of the green revolution brought about a handsome amount of surplus (Mohammad
107) in Pakistan. The growth in productivity was expected following the implementation of Green
Revolution innovations, and there was a fear of increased supply driving down prices, and farmers
profits (Mohammad 107). The fears of declining prices were packaged with an increase in
mechanization, lowering the demand for labor. With lower need for labor, many people sought jobs
elsewhere. The growth of non-field work is especially evident with the number of arhtis
[commissioned salesmen] (Mohammed 108), which increase[ed] 57% compared to 1965-66
figures (Mohammed 108) by 1969. The increase in number of brokers stirred competition in the
market, helping to counteract the supply boon with an increase of middleman buyers (Mohammed
108).

Another benefit of the Green Revolution in Pakistan was the increase and subsequent ubiquity of
power equipment such as tractors. Tractors widely replaced traditional and slow means of
transportation and made transport to the market faster and easier. (Mohammed 108). The effect of
more efficient transportation would serve to depress farm prices even further, given reduced
transportation effort and costs. The combined effects of increased supply, greater ease of transport,
and an increasing number of small scale salesmen meant that the post-Green Revolution markets
would have some flexibility to scale up. Despite the factors enabling market growth, the glut of
supply required new outlets to prevent surplus and stagnation.

The solution to Pakistans surplus came about as a direct result of increased supply to individual
farmers. The main reason for this change appears to be that with large marketable surplus the
farmer could afford to make extra search for a desired price (Mohammed 109). The increase in
surplus grain allowed smaller farmers to take advantage of economies of scale previously
unavailable to them, namely in the form of primary wholesale markets (Mohammed 109). By
scaling up from direct sales at local farmers markets, the farmers could secure higher, more stable
prices of grain from wholesalers, capable of reselling the grain in other parts of South Asia,
preventing surplus. The increase in surplus enabled small farmers to benefit from the differing levels
of markets in Pakistan (Mohammed 109), and opened more options to the large farmers, with their
larger production increases. What did sharp production increases mean for the small and large
farmers themselves?

The Green Revolutions effect on farmers incomes, and the distribution of income between small
farmers and agribusiness, has become a frequently criticized topic. The roots of unequal income
distribution lay in the technologies required for drastic increase of crop yields characteristic of the
Green Revolution. Innovations such as petro-chemical fertilizer and tractors are all capital-intensive,
requiring substantial savings or investment (Saini A-17). The nature of Green Revolution innovation
obviously placed larger farms, with increased usable capital, in a more advantageous position. By
the relative gains in Punjab are markedly confined to the last 10 per cent of the households (ie: the
big farmers). (Saini A-20). The change in farm income, unexpectedly, came independently of the
physical size of the farms (Saini A-20). It follows, that the increases in farm income distribution can
be attributed to larger farms having more capital, and thus a greater potential to implement new
innovations. These factors serve to [increase] the gap between the rich and the poor. (Saini A-
21). Indias experience of income distribution in the green revolution stems largely from the
technologies implemented, but how common is this phenomenon?

One would expect that Pakistans experience in the Green Revolution to be similar to India. Both
countries have a common history, only becoming separate states in 1947. One would also assume
that the basic principles of agriculture such as: changes in productivity will equal changes in farm
income. (Chaudhry 175) hold the same across national boundaries. Once again, as in India, market
stratification played a role: small farmers holding less than 12.5 acres of land applied 41 nutrient
pounds of chemical fertilizeragainst 62 nutrient pounds used by large farmers operating more than
25 acres. (Chaudhry 175). Once again, the larger farmers, in terms of land or available capital, were
able to make greater use of green revolution innovations. These ideas are reflected in the adoption
of high yielding varieties of wheat: Large farmershave reported 7-10 percent higher adoption
rates for HYVs (Chaudhry 176). Pakistan appears to develop along similar lines as India.

The influences of farm size and available capital were deciding factors in which farms became the
premiere beneficiaries of Green Revolution technologies. Because of past decisions, a
predetermined distribution of wealth, and so on, a wide disparity prevails in farm income levels.
(Srivastava, et al. A-166). Economic and Political Weekly recommends many methods to combat the
inequalities springing from the Green Revolution. Cheaper credit facilities for [small] farmers
(Srivastava A-171) and a de-emphasis on mechanization to keep the price of labor up (Srivastava A-
171) were advocated as solutions to combat income inequality.

The problems stemming from income inequality are heavily rooted in the rapid technological
developments and implementations characteristic of the green revolution. These issues stem from
the assertion: Green revolution technology tends to be monopolized by large commercial farmers
who have better access to new information and better financial capacity. (Hayami, 170). The
difficulty of small farmers taking up new technologies stems from the problems small farmers have
obtaining credit or capital to implement innovations. The ability of larger farms to monopolize
engineered seed and capital-intensive innovation served to cement income inequality. However,
long term increases in labor supply, stemming from population growth due to increased amounts of
food, will eventually require additional land to be cleared, or land saving innovations (Hayami 175).
Without increasing the availability or efficiency of land the labor supply will increase with a constant
demand, causing the prices to collapse (Hayami 175).

With the growing income inequality among farms one would wonder how the workers are affected. In
India, It has become part of the new orthodoxy in official circlesimproving the economic conditions
of the weaker sections of the [labourers] is to encourage fast economic growth through subsidization
of the chemical-biological breakthrough in production and through the promotion of agrarian
capitalism in the countryside. (Bardhan, 1239). The Indian ministry of food and agriculture found
that from 1960-1967, prices (of agricultural labourers went up by 93 per cent in Punjab
(Bardhan 1240). Despite the apparent growth,

National Sample Surveyreport[s] average daily wage rates for male agricultural labourers in
Punjabbetween 1956-57 and 1964-65 the average daily male wage went up by 17 per centthe
retail consumer price index (general) went up by 34 per cent in this region, pointing clearly to a fall in
the real wage rate.

Conflicting data regarding the change in wages hints at the complexity of the phenomenon at hand.
The effect on agricultural laborers was debated. However, when taking into account factors that the
green revolution placed on the lower rural classes: low demand for labor, decreased demand for
food, and swollen local markets, one can infer that the green revolution placed additional burden on
the lowest of the low in Indian and Pakistani society. By developing a landowning elite based
supported new technologies, pitted against the peasant laborers, class conflict is nearly inevitable.

Peasant revolts and agrarian conflicts were by no means unknown in India (Oommen, A-99).
The roots of agrarian conflict stem from the uneven distribution of income; larger farmers have more
ability to implement green revolution changes and reap the benefits. Thus, the small farmers and
peasants, The increased disparity leads to a sense of deprivationoccasionally leading to the
eruption of violence. (Oommen, A-99). The Green Revolution has a unique ability to catalyze these
conflicts, as the implementation of new techniques allows for rapid development of income
inequality. In addition to the Class Polarization (Oommen, A-99) Green Revolution India was
rapidly modernizing in other regards. Even when those at the lowest stratum feel deprived,
rationalisations such as the theory of Karma and Reincarnation may be effectively utilised to silence
them. (Oommen A-99). T K Oommen goes on to suggest that the lack of social mobility meeting
the aspirations of the deprived withoutdestroying the essentials of the system. (Oommen A-99).
The democratization of Indian society destabilized the old social boundaries, Adult Sufferage
andone-man-one-vote are revolutionary instruments of change when introduced into a closed
society. (Oommen A-99). The Green Revolution served a twofold function in India: One was a sharp
increase in agricultural production, while polarizing the class divisions in rural Indian society.

The Green Revolution served a complex function within South Asia. The introduction of modern
agricultural techniques and practices such as petrochemical fertilizers, mechanized labor, and high
yielding varieties of seed enabled sharp growths in productivity and farm output. Unfortunately, these
changes, as in many rapid economic developments, unevenly benefitted South Asia. The larger
landowners and wealthier farmers were able to implement Green Revolution innovations much more
effectively then smaller farms with less available capital. Ultimately, the effect of the green revolution
was positive in terms of production and food supply while social events of the period coupled with
Green Revolution trends to introduce instability into Indian society.

History: The Green Revolution in Pakistan

By Dustin Dwyer

The Green Revolution had effects and consequences spanning the entire globe. With an increase in
agricultural trade of about 4.3% a year between the years of 1960-1980 the Green Revolution
allowed for an increase in agricultural production in any country that employed it (Kaul 386). The
ability to produce crops at any time of the year in an increased capacity far exceeding previous
farming techniques was seen as an innovation of the ages. Yet the results of the Green Revolution
were always promising at the start, as years went on they rarely lived up to the hopes. This is the
case for the Green Revolution in Pakistan; it started out promising with high yields of production and
a boom to the economy that may actually have been worth the risk, but as time went on the Pakistan
government was unable to sustain this output. In this essay will be discussed the start of the Green
Revolution in Pakistan, its initial effects, the following decline of productivity, and the overall effects it
had on the economy.

First, the start of the Green Revolution in Pakistan. Pakistan adopted the technique of using dwarf
varieties of grain in the 1960s. These new types of grain were more responsive to fertilizer and thus
would be able to grow in harsh environments as long as there was a source of fertilizer (Child 275).
Using this new type of grain Pakistan was able to outperform most of South Asia in the starting years
of the Green Revolution, with an increase in productivity as well as being able to sell surplus crops to
neighboring countries. Pakistans main crop that they were able to better cultivate with the new
farming techniques was wheat; the production of wheat increased by 79 percent in the first couple
years (Child 275). Naturally with the ability to produce more crops the need for more workers to farm
these crops arose. Thus the agricultural economy grew and allowed for rural residents of Pakistan to
have an increase in income as well. The exact numbers and various other effects to the economy
will be discussed later, for now it is enough to say that the demand for workers increased. The
agricultural output changed dramatically, with a 3-6 percent annual increase during the period 1961-
1965 with the peak annual increase being 15 percent from 1967-1968 (Child 249). Along with an
increase in crops, there was an increase in the things that are necessary for farming. Pakistan saw
an increase in tube wells, supply water, and ground water supply during the period of 1967-1976,
these things allowing for the better irrigation of the farmland (Byerlee 1347).
(Evenson 361)

The above chart shows the average output of crops for countries during the Green Revolution era. It
can be seen from 1965-1980 the production of crops doubles and then the average increases slowly
from then on.

The increase in agricultural productivity made the production of more crops a priority to the Pakistan
government; as more crops meant more money. Wheat in particular was very profitable from 1967 to
1970 (Mohammad 495). The production of wheat nearly doubled from 1960 to 1970 as can be seen
in the chart below.

(Ahmad 93)
The government funded several developmental programs to make the production of crops easier for
the farmers. This included the creation of surface and ground water aquifers which allowed for better
irrigation systems in rural areas, the promotion of fertilizer and HYV (High Yielding Varieties of crops)
use, and the introduction of tractors to facilitate the increased production of crops (Chaudry 173).
The government also made policy changes which allowed small scale agricultural industries to thrive
(Child 275). Thus the Pakistan government nurtured its new source of income, trying to construct a
profitable agricultural system that would last. Unfortunately for Pakistan the Green Revolution would
fail in their country as it did in so many others.

Why the Green Revolution failed in Pakistan can be attributed to many reasons. The first would be
resource degradation, which is the decrease in fertility of the land producing a lower yield in crops.
Below is a chart showing the annual production of wheat in Pakistan. It can be seen as the Green
Revolution starts the annual growth rate is 5.1 percent yet by the year 1976 the rate drops to 1.4
percent. This was caused by several factors including resource degradation.

(Byerlee 1347)

Due to poor farming techniques the farmers of Pakistan overused the land thus rendering it less
fertile and unable to yield large amounts of crops. Overall the decrease in productivity was about a
third compared to the initial production rates (Murgai 214). Resource degradation was not a problem
for just Pakistan, many countries in South Asia and the Middle East had similar problems when they
started using the Green Revolution techniques. This problem however was not easily solved; to fix it
would require the introduction of new farming techniques and the creation of better irrigation systems
to keep the land fertile. Neither of these Pakistan was able to accomplish and thus resource
degradation was a major contributor to the decline of the crop yield in Pakistan (Murgai 208).

Another reason for the decline of the Green Revolution in Pakistan was due to the fact that Pakistan
was unable to use genetically engineered crops. In the 1980s when genetically engineered crops
were being used by other Southern Asian countries Pakistan was using hardier forms of crops but
not the genetically modified versions that produced even higher yields. This is because Pakistan was
not able to create the regulatory systems necessary to monitor the usage of genetically modified
crops along with the fact they were unable to create them. The obvious reasons for why this had a
negative effect is that these crops produced higher yields, but another impact of the inability to use
genetically modified crops was that neighboring countries did not have the same restrictions. In fact
most of the other countries in South Asia used genetically modified crops and were thus able to
produce and sell more, lowering the cost of these crops on the international market. The lower price
of crops affected Pakistan greatly because they were not able to produce at the same rate as their
neighbors. Thus the inability to use genetically modified crops contributed to the decline of the Green
Revolution in Pakistan (Evenson 3).

The final reason for the decline of the Green Revolution was the policies (or lack of policies)
implemented by the Pakistan government. As stated before poor irrigation and bad farming
techniques led to resource degradation in Pakistan. The Pakistan government could have easily
implemented policies to prevent this outcome yet they failed to do so. Another fault was the inability
of the government to introduce genetically modified crops that would allow for a greater yield. The
creation of regulatory policies to oversee the usage of genetically modified crops could have
increased production of crops greatly allowing Pakistan to compete with its neighboring countries on
the international market. The final failing of the government was the lack of investment in
infrastructure. In India the creation and advancement of their infrastructure allowed the facilitation of
agricultural and economic growth. If Pakistan had followed this example and expanded their
infrastructure then perhaps they would have seen a similar increase in the growth of their agricultural
production (Murgai 214).

The decline of the Green Revolution in Pakistan is not unique. In fact many third world countries
were unable to successfully maintain initial production rates due to similar problems that Pakistan
experienced, these problems relating to poor irrigation, bad farming techniques, and the lack of
government policies to facilitate growth. Most of these nations had hoped that the Green revolution
would be the key to creating a constant flow of money into their economies as well as increasing the
production of crops each year. Looking back now it is obvious that most countries did not obtain this
agricultural productivity. Though the agricultural productivity did not last as long as hoped, the Green
Revolution had positive effects in Pakistan that involved the economy and its increase in size, a
response to the increase of agricultural growth. It can be said that perhaps the positive effect the
Green Revolution had on the Pakistan economy was just as impressive as the impact it had on the
production of wheat.

The economy of Pakistan received a boost from the Green Revolution that was quite impressive. In
face the per capita income increased by 27 percent during the period of 1963-1972 (Guisinger
1272). This increase in income was seen mostly in the rural areas where farmers and farm hands
produced the new crops. The positive effects on the economy were of course a natural outcome of
the increase in the production of cash crops, which in the case of Pakistan was wheat. As Pakistans
crop yields soared in the 60s and 70s Pakistan sold its surplus goods allowing the economy to grow
as well (Landau 37).
(Ahmad 93)

From the chart it can be seen that due to the Green Revolution the income to the agricultural sector
doubled. It is thus proven with this data that the income of Pakistan as a whole was increased due to
the Green Revolution, whether or not that income was distributed evenly is another matter.

There has been dispute on whether or not the increase in income distribution was seen equally
throughout all income levels or whether only the rich landowners prospered from the Green
Revolution. Based on the information about income levels at the time it is more plausible that all
levels of society prospered from the growth in agriculture not just the rich. As seen from the chart
below which compares the increase of small landowning farmers compared to larger farmers it can
be seen that the Green revolution increased the small farmers income more than it did the large
farmer (by percentage).

(Ahmad 99)

Below is another chart that shows the relative income increase between a landlord and those who
work on his land. It can be seen that over the course of the Green Revolution the rate at which
income increased was greater for people who were considered to be lower class workers such as
peasants or tenants.
(Ahmad 99)

From the above two charts the result can be determined that the Green Revolution was not just
profitable for the wealthy by making them wealthier, its impact was spread to the lower class, to the
people who worked on the farms harvesting the crops. In fact based off these results the Green
Revolution helped close the income gap problem in Pakistan.

From these facts listed it can be said that the Green Revolution provided a short burst of large scale
production of various forms of crops. Along with this increase in crop yield and agriculture there was
also an increase to the economy especially to peasant farmers who acquired larger incomes from
the increased production of crops. Even after the Green Revolution started to falter in the mid 1970s
the effect it had on the economy lasted beyond that. The increase in per capita did not decline along
with the Green Revolution decline and the income gap which was lessened during the agricultural
boom was also not widened when it lulled. Thus I argue that the positive effects the Green
Revolution had on the Pakistan economy were not negated and in fact the effects on the economy
have prevailed long after the fire that spawned them puttered out. Finally, the Green Revolution
overall had a positive impact on Pakistan even though the movement failed agriculturally, the
economic aspect more then made up for this.