!

7.#P%value#(proportion#more#extreme#value)#
"!!!!!A!way!of!describing!how!extreme!a!score!is!in!a!distribution.!A!p"value!is!the!proportion!of!a!distribution!more!extreme!than!a!given!
score.!
% One!tailed!P"Value:!Proportion!of!distribution!more!extreme!in!one!tail.!!
o Ex:!One"tailed!P"value!of!z!=!0.84:!0.20.!
% Two!tailed!P"Value:!Proportion!of!distribution!more!extreme!in!both!tails.!!
o Ex:!Two"tailed!P"value!of!z!=!0.84:!0.40.!
% Proportions!are!correct!only!for!normal!distributed!data!!!!
Distribution#of#Sample#Means#
% Populations!have!parameters.!Samples!have!estimates!(actually!estimations!of!the!parameters).!
% Sampling!Error:!The!discrepancy!(or!amount!of!error)!that!exists!between!a!sample!statistic!and!the!corresponding!population!
parameter.!
o Experiment:!Caffeine!group!statistics,!average!test!score!=!79.!No!caffeine!group!statistics,!average!test!score!=!75.!!
o Two!possible!explanations:!1)!There!is!no!effect!of!caffeine!on!test!scores!and!the!4"point!different!is!due!to!a!sampling!error.!
2)!There!is!a!real!effect!of!caffeine!on!test!performance.!
% Single!Sample!Study!Design!
o Population!parameters;!mu!=!100,!sigma!=!15.!Sample!statistics;!x!bar!=!106,!s!=!15.2.!Two!explanations:!1)!There!is!no!effect!
of!ginseng!on!IQ!scores!and!the!6"point!increase!is!due!to!sampling.!2)!There!is!a!real!effect!of!ginseng!on!IQ!scores.!!
% Distribution!of!Sample!Means!
o The!collection!of!sample!means!for!all!the!possible!random!samples!of!a!particular!size!(n).!
o Sampling!distribution!of!x!bar/sampling!distribution!of!M!
o Constructing!a!real!Sampling!Distribution!for!a!small!population!
! Choose!a!SMALL!population!
! Enumerate!every!possible!sample!of!size!n!
! Calculate!mean!for!each!sample!of!size!n!
! Plot!of!histogram!of!the!mean!calculated!
o Constructing!a!real!Sampling!Distribution!for!a!big!population!
! Choose!a!population!
! Take!a!random!sample!of!size!n!
! Calculate!the!mean!for!that!particular!sample!
! Record!the!mean!to!a!histogram!
! Go!back!to!#2!and!repeat!5000!times.!
***!THE!LARGER!THE!SAMPLE!SIZES,!THE!MORE!NARROW!THE!SAMPLE!MEAN!DISTRIBUTION,!VARIABILITY!
DECREASES.!Mean!is!also!an!unbiased!estimator,!so!itll!be!similar!for!all!sampling!distributions.!!
o Constructing!a!Sampling!Distribution!for!a!big!population!that!is!not!normally!distributed!
! Choose!a!population!(this!time!not!normal)!
! Take!a!random!sample!of!size!n!
! Calculate!the!mean!for!that!particular!sample!
! Recor!the!mean!to!a!histogram!
! Go!back!to!#2!and!repeat!5000!times!
o Difference!between!a!normal!population!and!a!weirdo!population!
! Normal!population:!Sample!distributions!are!all!normal.!
! Weirdo!population:!Sample!distributions!gradually!become!normal!as!sample!sizes!increase,!n!>!~30.!!
% Characteristics!of!the!Sampling!Distribution!of!X!bar!
o Sampling!distribution!has!a!mean!=!mu.!
o As!sample!size!(n)!increases,!the!variability!of!the!sampling!distribution!decreases.!The!standard!deviation!of!the!sampling!
distribution!decreases!by!the!square!root!of!n;!sigma/(n^1/2)!
o The!sampling!distribution!is!normally!distributed!when!population!is!normal!or!samples!are!large.!!
% The!Central!Limit!Theorem!
o The!distribution!of!the!mean!of!a!large!number!of!independent!random!variables!approaches!a!normal!distribution.!
o Implications:!For!any!population!with!mean,!mu,!and!the!standard!deviation,!
sigma,!the!distribution!of!sample!means!for!sample!size!n!will!have!a!mean,!mu,!
and!standard!deviation!of!sigma/(n^1/2),!and!will!approach!a!normal!
distribution!as!n!approaches!infinity.!
% Standard!(Sampling!Error)!
o Standard!deviation!of!the!sampling!distribution!of!sample!means.!Sigma!(xbar/M)!
=!(sigma^2/n)^(1/2)!
o Example:!Ginseng!treatment,!average!population!IQ!score!=!100.!!Standard!error!
calculated!=!3.!Average!sample!mean!=!xbar!=!106.!There!is!a!real!effect!of!ginseng!
on!IQ!scores,!because!sampling!error!only!accounts!for!100!+"!3.!
o Calculating!the!z"score!for!the!sample!mean:!Zxbar!=!xbar!!mu!/!sigmaxbar!=!2.!!
Two!standard!deviations!from!what!sampling!error!accounts.!!
!
8.#The#Logic#of#Hypothesis#Testing#
% A!hypothesis!test!is!a!statistical!method!that!uses!sample!data!to!evaluate!a!hypothesis!about!a!population.!!
% Four!Steps!to!Hypothesis!Testing:!1)!State!a!statistical!hypothesis!about!a!population,!usually!about!a!population!parameter.!2)!Use!the!
hypothesis!to!predict!the!characteristics!samples!from!that!population!should!have;!pick!criteria!to!decide!when!samples!do!not!support!
that!hypothesis.!3)!Obtain!a!random!sample!of!size!n!from!the!population!and!compute!a!test!statistic.!4.!Compare!obtained!sample!with!
the!prediction!made!by!the!statistical!hypothesis.!If!sample!is!consistent,!conclude!hypothesis!is!reasonable;!if!sample!is!very!
inconsistent,!conclude!hypothesis!is!unreasonable.!!
% Statistical!hypotheses:!Null!hypothesis!(H0).!Alternative!hypothesis!(H1).!!
 o H0:!In!the!population!there!is!no!change,!no!difference,!or!no!relationship.!For!an!experiment,!this!means!no!effect!of!
treatment.!The!difference!observed!is!due!to!sampling!error!only.!mutreatment!=!muw/otreatment!
o H1:!In!the!population!there!is!a!change,!a!difference,!or!relationship.!For!an!experiment,!this!means!an!effect!of!treatment.!The!
difference!observed!is!due!to!sampling!error!AND!a!real!effect.!!mutreatment!=/!muw/otreatment!
o Statistical!hypotheses!are!always!about!populations,!not!samples!!
% Alpha!level,!the!probability!value!that!is!used!to!define!which!sample!outcomes!are!considered!very!unlikely!if!the!null!hypothesis!is!
true.!!Most!common,!alpha!level!=!0.05.!
% Critical!region,!the!region!of!the!sampling!distribution!that!contains!the!sample!outcomes!that!are!considered!very!unlikely!if!the!null!
hypothesis!is!true.!If!alpha!level!!=!0.05,!each!critical!region!must!have!.0250!in!a!two"tailed!manner.!Zcritical!=!+"1.96.!
% Test!statistic:!A!numerical!summary!of!the!degree!to!which!a!sample!is!unlike!the!samples!predicted!by!the!null!hypothesis.!!
o Zxbar!=!xbar!!mu!/!sigmaxbar!!
o Suppose!zcritical!is!+"1.96.!The!test!statistic,!Zxbar!is!+"2.00.!We!shall!reject!the!null!hypothesis,!and!accept!the!alternative!
hypothesis.!|Zxbar|!>!|Zcritical|.!If!|Zxbar|!<!|Zcritical|,!we!retain!the!null!hypothesis.!!
% Simplified!Four!Steps!To!Hypothesis!Testing:!
o State!a!H0!and!H1.!
o Determine!the!criteria!for!rejecting!the!null!hypothesis.!
o Obtain!a!random!sample!of!size!n!from!the!population!and!compute!a!test!statistic.!
o Make!decision:!If!value!of!test!statistic!is!more!extreme!than!critical!values!of!test!statistic,!reject!H0;!otherwise,!fail!to!reject.!
% Statistically!Significant!
o A!result!is!said!to!be!statistically!significant!if!the!result!is!very!unlikely!to!occur!when!the!null!hypothesis!is!true;!akin!to!
saying!the!effect!is!real.!!
% Conveying!Results!
o The!effect!of!money!on!individuals!usage!of!Facebook!was!investigated.!Money!was!found!to!statistically!significantly!increase!
time!spent!on!Facebook,!z!=!2.0!(observed!value!of!the!test!statistic),!p!(likelihood!of!those!outcome!or!more!extreme)!<!0.05!
(alpha!value).!If!p!<!alpha!value,!reject!the!null!hypothesis.!
% Directional#Statistical#Hypotheses!
o H0:!mu!treatment!=>!mu!w/otreatment!OR!mu!treatment!<=!mu!w/otreatment!
o H1:!!mu!treatment!<!mu!w/otreatment!OR!mu!treatment!>!mu!w/o!treatment!
o ONE!TAILED,!if!alpha!value!=!0.05,!Zcritical!=!+"1.64.!
o Must!specify!before!running!study,!effects!in!the!other!
direction!must!be!unimportant!or!conceptually!unlikely.!
o Otherwise,!there!is!potential!for!abuse!by!researchers.!
!
The#Nature#of#Errors#in#Statistical#Decisions#
Two!possible!truths:!
% There!is!no!effect.!H0!is!true.!
% There!is!an!effect.!H1!is!true.!
Type!I!Error:!!
% When!no!effect!is!present,!but!the!researcher!rejects!the!null!!
hypothesis.!False!alarm!or!alpha!error.!
Type!II!Error:!!
% When!there!is!a!real!effect!present,!but!the!research!retains!the!!
null!hypothesis.!Miss!or!beta!error.!!
If!you!reject!the!null!hypothesis,!there!is!a!chance!that!you!could!have!made!a!TYPE!I!
error.!!If!you!retain!the!null!hypothesis,!there!is!a!chance!you!could!have!made!a!TYPE!
II!ERROR.!!
!
Probability!of!Type!I!Error:!
% p!(Type!I!Error!|!H0!true)!=!alpha!
% p!(Type!I!Error!|!H1!true)!=!0!
!
Probability!of!Type!II!Error:!
% p!(Type!II!Error!|!H0!true)!=!0!
% p!(Type!II!Error!|!H1!true)!=!beta.!
!
Statistical!Power:!The!power!of!a!test!is!the!probability!that!the!test!will!reject!a!false!
null!hypothesis.!Power!is!the!probability!of!detecting!a!real!effect.!
!
Effect#Sizes!
Statistical!Significance:!Whether!the!observed!effect!is!likely!or!unlikely!to!occur!when!
the!null!hypothesis!is!true.!
Practical!Significance:!Whether!the!observed!effect!is!meaningful!or!value.!
!
Standardized!Effect!Size!Indicators:!
% Cohens!d:!A!measure!of!effect!size!that!describes!the!effect!in!terms!of!
how!much!variability!scores!have!in!general.!!
% Cohens!d!=!mu!treated!!mu!untreated!/!sigma!(population!SD,!not!
standard!error)!
% How!big!was!the!effect!we!measured!in!terms!of!how!spread!out!people!
are!in!general.!
% d!=!0.2,!small!effect.!
% d!=!0.5,!medium!effect.!
 % d!=!0.8,!large!effect.!
!
!
!
T%Statistic!
Single!Sample!Experiment:!Population!">!Random!Sample!">!Treatment.!Population!variance!is!unknown.!!
% Z"test!was!a!one!sample!test,!requires!knowledge!of!population!mean!(mean!before!treatment)!and!population!standard!deviation.!
% Sample!variance!is!not!identical!to!the!population!variance.!The!sample!variance!is!an!unbiased!estimator!of!the!population!variance.!
% Population:!Sigmaxbar!(true!standard!error).!Sample:!Sxbar!(estimated!sample!error).!
o Sigma!xbar!=!(sigma^2/n)^(1/2).!S!xbar!=!(s^2/n)^(1/2).!
o SS!=!Summation!(Xi!!Xbar)^2.!s^2!=!SS!/!n"1!
o Best!estimate!of!the!standard!deviation!of!the!sampling!distribution!of!the!sample!means.!!
% T"statistic:!xbar!!mu!/!s!xbar!
% The!smaller!the!sample!size,!the!more!extreme!the!t"statistic.!!
Distribution!of!t!
% With!small!sample!sizes,!distribution!of!t!has!more!extreme!values!than!the!distribution!of!z.!
% As!n!increases,!distribution!of!t!looks!more!like!distribution!of!z.!
% When!sample!size!approaches!infinity,!distribution!of!t!is!identical!to!distribution!of!z.!!
% |txbar|!>!|Tcritical|!=!reject!H0.!|txbar|!<!|Tcritical|!=!fail!to!reject!H0.!!
% USE!T!TABLE,!KEEP!TRACK!OF!DEGREES!OF!FREEDOM!TO!FIGURE!OUT!THE!T"CRITICAL.!
% How!fat!the!tails!of!the!t"distribution!are!is!determined!by!degrees!of!freedom!!a!concept!closely!related!to!sample!size.!!
Degrees!of!Freedom!
% The!number!of!degrees!of!freedom!for!a!statistic!is!the!number!of!statistically!independent!values!going!into!the!final!calculation.!
% How!many!pieces!of!non"redundant!information!went!in!to!calculating!your!statistics.!(s^2,!which!is!our!estimate!of!sigma^2)!
% df!for!s^2!!=!(n"1).!
% When!calculating!estimated!sample!error,!we!dont!need!to!account!for!degrees!of!freedom,!because!we!already!did!that!for!sample!
variance.!!
% When!using!the!t"table!to!find!the!critical!t,!always!choose!the!smaller!df;!the!larger!critical!t.!
!
Hypothesis#Testing#using#t#
Four!Steps:!1)!State!H0!and!H1.!2)!Determine!criteria!for!rejecting!the!null!hypothesis.!3)!Obtain!a!random;!compute!test!statistic.!4)!Is!test!statistic!!
! more!extreme!than!critical!value?!
% 1)!Unchanged.!H0!=!mu!treatment!=!15.!H1!=!mu!treatment!=/!15.!2)!Distribution!of!our!test!statistic!if!the!null!is!true!is!more!spread!
out!than!it!would!have!been!for!the!z"test;!thus!our!critical!values!will!be!more!extreme!than!before.!3)!Calculate!estimated!sample!
error,!then!t"statistic.!4)!Make!decision.!|txbar|!>!|Tcritical|!=!reject!H0.!|txbar|!<!|Tcritical|!=!fail!to!reject!H0.!!
!
Independent#Samples#t%test!
Experimental!situation:!Two!samples!are!treated!differently.!There!are!conceptual!differences.!!
Hypothesis!testing!procedure:!Pooling!variance!estimates.!
!
Two!sample!experiment:!Population!">!Two!random!samples!">!Two!different!treatments!">!Two!different!sample!means!and!sample!variances.!
Example:!Blood!pressure!study.!Independent!variable:!Drugs!given!to!participants.!Dependent!variable:!Blood!pressure!after!two!weeks.!!

Sample!1:!Treatment!group.!Sample!2:!Placebo!group.!!
!
T"statistic!for!one!mean:!xbar!!mu!/!s!xbar!
T"statistic!for!two!mean!difference:!(sample!mean!difference!!population!
mean!difference)/(estimated!standard!error!of!the!mean!difference)!
!
Pooled!Estimate!of!Population!Variance!">!Estimated!Standard!Error!of!the!
Mean!Difference.!
!
Hypothesis!Testing:!!
1)!!H0!=!(mu1!!mu2)!=!0.!H1!=!(mu1!!mu2)!=/=!0.!
2)!Define!the!critical!regions.!Keep!in!mind!degrees!of!freedom.!Choose!
smaller!df/larger!tcritical!value.!!
3)!Calculate!test!statistic.!
4)!Make!decision.!
!
Conveying!Results:!
The!effect!of!a!drug!on!individuals!blood!pressure!was!investigated.!This!
drug!was!found!to!statistically!significantly!decrease!blood!pressure.!
t(198/DEGREES!OF!FREEDOM)=!"10.42,!p!<0.05.!
 Some Important Formulas from Before Midterm 1

Mean Sum of squares for sample

!Xi

!Xi !(X i " X ) 2
= X=
N

n

Standard deviation for population raw score to Z-score

From SS

Xi !
!=
SS zi =
N "

z-score to raw score

X i = + zi!
Standard deviation for sample
From SS


SS

s=

n !1





Sum of squares for population,
Definition form

!(X i " ) 2



 Some Important Formulas from After Midterm 1

Single Sample z-test: Single Sample t-test:

test statistic sample variance

X SS
zX = s =
2

X df


Single Sample z-test: Single Sample t-test:
standard error estimated Cohens d

2 Estimated Cohen's d =
X
X =
s

Single Sample t-test:

test statistic

X
tX =
sX
Single Sample t-test:
estimated standard error

s2
sX =
n



Independent samples t-test:
Pooled variance
Independent samples t-test:
test statistic
SS1 + SS2
s =
2

(X1 X2 ) p
df1 + df2
t(X1 X2 ) =
s(X1 X2 )
Independent samples t-test: estimated
standard error

s 2p s 2p
s( X1 X2 ) = +
n1 n2

Independent samples: estimated Cohens d

X1 X2
Estimated Cohen's d =
s 2p