ADMS 3330 Test II Formula Sheets and Table

Forecasting
Slope of the trend line:
Forecast error: et = Yt - Ft n n n

n tYt t Yt / n
e b1 = t =1 t =1 t =1
t 2
n
n
Mean Forecast Error: MFE = t t / n
t = k +1 2
nk t =1 t =1
n

| e t | Decision Analysis
Mean Absolute Error: MAE = t = k +1
Minimax Regret Approach: Rij V j* Vij
nk
N
Expected Value: EV (d1 ) = P( s j )Vij
n

e 2
t
j =1
Mean Squared Error: MSE = t = k +1

nk Expected value of perfect information:

Mean Absolute Percentage Error: EVPI = EVwPI EVwoPI
n
et
Y
t = k +1 t
100 Expected value of sample information:
MAPE = EVSI = EVwSI EVwoSI
nk
Moving Averages:
t

(most recent k data values) Y i

Table for Calculation of Posterior Probabilities
Ft +1 = = i =t k +1

k k
States Prior Conditional Joint Posterior
of Prob- Probabilities Probabilities Probabilities
Y + ... + Yt 1 + Yt
= t k +1 Nature abilities
k
s P(s) P(X|s) = P (X and s) P(s|X) =
Weighted Moving Averages:
Ft +1 = wt Yt + wt 1Yt 1 + ... + wt k +1Yt k +1 P( X and s) = P( X and s)
P( s) P( X )
P(X|s)*P(s)
Exponential Smoothing:

Efficiency of Sample Information

Trend projection:
Ft = b0 + b1t

Intercept of the trend line:

_
b0 = Y b1 t

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 ADMS 3330 Test II Formula Sheets and Table

Project Scheduling: PERT/CPM

EF = ES + t
LS = LF t
Slack = LS ES = LF EF

Expected activity time:

a + 4m + b
t=
6
Variance of activity time:

ba
2

=
2

6
Standard Normal Transformation:
X
Z=

Note: The variance 2 in the project completion
time is the sum of the variances of the critical path

activities and 2 =

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 ADMS 3330 Test II Formula Sheets and Table

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 ADMS 3330 Test II Formula Sheets and Table

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