Puzrin, A. M. et al. (2016). Gotechnique 66, No. 3, 188201 [http://dx.doi.org/10.1680/jgeot.15.LM.

002]

Shear band propagation analysis of submarine slope stability

A. M. PUZRIN
, L. N. GERMANOVICH and B. FRIEDLI

The paper summarises recent developments in the shear band propagation approach, which enables
simplified submarine slope stability analysis to account for catastrophic and progressive failure.
This approach covers a wide variety of potential failure mechanisms, such as slab failures, spreadings,
ploughings and run-outs, and provides analytical energy balance criteria for predicting their
occurrence. The simple form of the resulting criteria enabled their incorporation into deterministic
and probabilistic slope stability analysis of offshore developments within the geographical information
system. In contrast to conventional limiting equilibrium approaches used in such analysis, the shear
band propagation approach is capable of explaining enormous dimensions of observed palaeo-
landslides and predicting annual probabilities of failure that are orders of magnitude higher, as
validated by reconstructed historical frequencies.

KEYWORDS: failure; landslides; slopes

INTRODUCTION
A geographical informational system (GIS)-based determi-
nistic and probabilistic slope stability analysis (PSSA) for
offshore developments requires slope stability calculations
to be repeated millions of times (e.g. Dimmock et al., 2012),
thus excluding possible use of finite-element analysis and
relying mainly on analytical limiting equilibrium (LE) slope
failure criteria. In strain softening soils, however, the LE
approach assumes that the failure takes place simultaneously
along the entire sliding surface where the shear stress exceeds
the peak shear strength. It cannot explain the failure of the
parts of the slope, where the shear stress is lower than the
peak shear strength, frequently observed in gigantic sub-
marine landslides. It also cannot distinguish between differ-
ent landslide failure modes, such as slab failure, spreading,
ploughing and run-out (Fig. 1). There is a clear need for
an alternative approach, which would allow for overcoming
this limitation while maintaining the simplicity of the LE
analysis.
A potential candidate to fill this gap is the shear band
propagation (SBP) approach (Palmer & Rice, 1973; Puzrin &
Germanovich, 2005; Viesca & Rice, 2012), which in contrast
to the LE approach provides criteria for an initial slip surface,
in which the shear stress exceeds the peak shear strength, to
propagate into portions of the slope, where the shear stress is
lower than the peak shear strength but exceeds the residual
strength. This helps to explain the enormous dimensions of
some submarine landslides in nature.
Note that the slip surfaces in submarine landslides differ
from conventional shear bands in that they can have a finite,
problem-specific thickness d and not just a thickness of a few
soil grain diameters. Whereas the classical SBP approaches
assume zero thickness of the shear band and use the relative
displacement between the boundaries of the band as a state
parameter, they can also be applied to slip surfaces by taking
d, where is the shear strain within the slip surface.
Manuscript received 30 January 2015; revised manuscript accepted
25 June 2015. Published online ahead of print 22 December 2015.
Discussion on this paper closes on 1 August 2016, for further details
see p. ii.

Institute for Geotechnical Engineering, ETH, Zurich,
Switzerland.
School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Tech,
Atlanta, USA.
For consistency with the SBP approach, in this paper such
slip surfaces are termed shear bands.
For the initial shear band to propagate dynamically
parallel to the slope surface, its length should exceed some
critical length. In fact, in strain softening materials the shear
strength within the shear band drops from its peak to a resi-
dual value, and may become smaller than the gravitational
shear stress. This causes loading at the lower end and unload-
ing at the upper end of the sliding layer. The larger is the
length of the initial shear band, the larger are the load
increments acting at the ends of the layer. At a certain critical
value the loads become sufficiently large to enable the shear
band to overcome the peak shear strength in its end zones
and trigger strain softening in these zones. When this process
can take place under constant external forces, it leads to the
unstable catastrophic shear band propagation. The value
of this critical length is defined based on static analysis
using the energy balance, process zone or fracture mechanics
criteria (Palmer & Rice, 1973; Rice, 1973; Puzrin et al., 2004,
2010; Puzrin & Germanovich, 2005; Quinn et al., 2011, 2012;
Dey et al., 2012; Viesca & Rice, 2012; Zhang et al., 2015).
Using the energy balance approach, Puzrin & Germanovich
(2005) showed that, in an infinite slope with inclination
angle , where
the sliding surface is strain softening (Fig. 2(a)), with
undrained shear strength decreasing from peak p to resi-
dual r over the relative displacement r
the sliding layer is elasto-plastic (Fig. 2(b)) with different
plane strain deformation moduli (El and Eu) and passive/
active failure criteria ( pp and pa) in loading and unload-
ing, respectively
the shear band will propagate catastrophically (i.e. under
existing external forces) at the depth h parallel to the slope
surface once its length exceeds the critical value of
 r s
El 1 2Eu h
Lcr 1 1
Eu r p  r
where
g  r
r ; g h sin 2
p  r

188

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 SHEAR BAND PROPAGATION ANALYSIS OF SUBMARINE SLOPE STABILITY 189

Slab slide Run-out

Ploughing Spreading
(and ploughing)

Fig. 1. Typical failure modes in translational submarine landslides (courtesy of Dr Andy Mills)

p
pp
( r)d = (p r) El
p0
1 1
Eu
r pa

0
0 r 0
(a) (b)

Fig. 2. Constitutive behaviour: (a) in the shear band; (b) in the sliding layer

are the shear stress ratio and gravitational shear stresses,
respectively
r Another possible reason is that the SBP approach has been
0  r d 3
p  r
is the characteristic displacement, proportional to the area
below the softening curve, representing the energy dissipated
in the process zone of the shear band. This parameter is
the more
critical for the analysis of the SBP: the larger is ,
work has to be done to propagate the band. Because in
the energy balance approach the length of the end zone is
neglected, the above equations apply equally to different
shapes of the degradation curve. For a finite length of the end
zone, however, the critical length of the shear band will be
affected by the shape of the degradation curve (e.g. Zhang
et al., 2015).
Nucleation of the initial shear band can be triggered
by various mechanisms, such as earthquake loading, shear
strength degradation and liquefaction (Newmark, 1965;
Seed, 1979; Puzrin et al., 1995; Wright & Rathje, 2003;
Nadim et al., 2007; Strasser et al., 2007), methane hydrate
decomposition (Sultan et al., 2004; Masson et al., 2006; Xu
& Germanovich, 2006; Scholz et al., 2011), local fluid fluxes
(Screaton et al., 1990; Dugan and Flemings, 2000; Viesca &
Rice, 2012) and salt diapirism (Kovacevic et al., 2012).
In spite of the significant effort devoted to the SBP
approach in the last 10 years, its application to practical slope
stability analysis has remained challenging. One possible
reason for that is a lack of confidence in this approach within
the geotechnical research and engineering communities due
to insufficient experimental and numerical validation of the
phenomenon of a shear band propagation in a slope and of
the corresponding analytical criteria.
mainly developed for the case of an infinite slope. Although
many submarine slopes can be approximated as infinite
slopes reasonably well, this assumption creates a significant
limitation for the application of the SBP approach to
real-life landslide risk assessment. Indeed, the main chal-
lenge for the SBP application lies in the practical difficulties
of determining the length of the initial shear band. For local
triggers such as methane hydrate decomposition and local
fluid fluxes it is at least conceptually clear that their effect is
spatially limited. Reliable and accurate quantification of
the spatial scale of this effect is, however, extremely difficult.
For regional triggers, such as earthquakes or sedimentation,
which cause a practically uniform loading of the slope, the
situation is even more complicated. No rational explanation
can be found for why only a portion of an infinite slope, with
soil properties barely changing parallel to its surface, should
be weakened due to such uniform loading.
Additional limitation of the existing SBP approaches is
that most of them deal exclusively with the unstable
(catastrophic) shear band propagating into the quasi-stable
parts of the slope, where the gravitational and seismically
induced shear stresses are smaller than the peak but larger
than the residual shear strength of the soil. They do not con-
sider the possibility for propagation of the shear band into
the stable parts of the slope where driving forces are smaller
than the residual strength, as will be shown below to be the
case for spreading, ploughing and run-out failures in Fig. 1.
Finally, the existing studies focus mainly on criteria for the
initiation of the catastrophic SBP, with little attention paid to

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 190 PUZRIN, GERMANOVICH AND FRIEDLI
0<r<1
r<0
r>1
Primary failure
0<r<1
r<0
Secondary failure
L > Lcr
Tertiary failure
ha > ha,cr
p = pa
hp > hp,cr
p = pp
Fig. 3. Shear band propagation mechanisms of submarine landslide
evolution
the process of its dynamic propagation and conditions for its
arresting, defining the final dimensions of the affected slope
length and of the resulting landslide.
This paper proposes a novel approach to modelling
different stages of the submarine landslide evolution as
a single continuous process driven by catastrophic and
progressive shear band propagation. It will summarise the
recent advances in the SBP approach, addressing the existing
limitations and providing analytical criteria for the shear
band propagation and arrest in a two-dimensional (2D) slope
geometry. These simple criteria, validated against numerical
analysis and palaeo-landslide data, allowed for the SBP
approach to be incorporated into GIS based deterministic
and probabilistic slope stability analysis, confirming the
non-conservative nature of LE calculations.
SHEAR BAND PROPAGATION MECHANISMS OF
SUBMARINE LANDSLIDE EVOLUTION
For 2D and three-dimensional (3D) slope geometry, the
authors propose to treat the submarine landslide evolution
as a continuous sequence of catastrophic and progressive
SBP mechanisms (Fig. 3). Conventional slope stability
analysis assumes that slopes fail simultaneously along their
entire length. In contrast, the SBP mechanism is capable
of explaining the failure evolution from a relatively short
initial shear band, triggered (e.g. by an earthquake) in the
steepest part of the slope, where gravitational and seismic
forces exceed the peak shear strength (shear stress ratio r . 1,
primary failure in Fig. 3). If this initial shear band becomes
sufficiently long, it can propagate catastrophically parallel
to the slope surface, into those parts of the slope where
gravitational and seismic forces exceed the residual shear
strength (0 , r , 1), triggering a slab failure (secondary
failure in Fig. 3).
Once the slab fails in active or passive mode at its ends,
this causes changes in the seabed level, driving progressive
propagation of the shear band into those parts of the slope
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where gravitational and seismic forces are smaller than the
residual shear strength (r , 0) and triggering spreadings,
ploughings and run-outs (tertiary failure in Fig. 3). This
paper demonstrates the ability of the SBP approach to for-
mulate quantitative criteria for these post-failure evolution
scenarios and to explain the dimensions of some large sub-
marine landslides and the resulting geomorphological
features.
VALIDATION OF THE SBP IN A SLOPE
Recent experimental validation of the energy balance
approach has focused on progressive SBP in dry dense sands
in trap door (Saurer, 2010) and shear blade (Saurer & Puzrin,
2011) experiments. In order to obtain the experimental
evidence of the SBP in conditions close to observed sub-
marine landslides, a novel testing set-up has been built at the
ETH Zurich. A 3 cm thick layer of saturated kaolinite clay
has been consolidated in a 2 m long and 25 cm wide chute
with a steel bottom and glass walls (Fig. 4(a)). The slope was
then inclined by 10 and a miniature bulldozer applied a
gradually increasing static force on top of the sliding layer,
which was measured using a set of three load cells.
Displacements of the bulldozer were measured by a laser
displacement sensor. This experiment provided for the first
time direct measurements of the evolving length of the shear
band. The measurements were performed using a novel swept
wavelength interferometry fibre optic strain sensing technol-
ogy by installing two optical fibres parallel to the slope in the
sliding layer with the help of plate micro-anchors, spaced at
1 cm distance from each other, resulting in 400 individual
high-precision strain gauges along the slope. The cables were
pre-tensioned and the compressive strain distribution in the
sliding layer could be measured for different positions of the
bulldozer (Fig. 4(b)). Closer to the bulldozer, reliable strain
measurements could be taken only while the compressive
strain did not exceed the pre-tensioning. Fortunately, to
capture the SBP propagation the relevant measurements are
those further away from the bulldozer. Indeed, because the
layer only becomes compressed where the shear band has
already propagated, its length is determined by the length of
the strain profile in Fig. 3(b), identified with the unprece-
dented spatial resolution of 1 cm.
Analytical and numerical investigations of test conditions
required soil parameters, which were obtained from inde-
pendent interface shear, ring shear, oedometer and chute
stiffness tests. The interface tests are of particular interest
here, showing softening behaviour at the contact between
the sliding layer and the steel of the chute for both
normally (NC) and lightly overconsolidated (OCR 3)
clays (Fig. 4(c)). These softening curves have been used
directly as a constitutive relationship for the interface behav-
iour in Abaqus. Numerical simulation of the evolution of the
length of the shear band propagating progressively at the
bottom of an elastic layer (inclined by 10) is shown by
a dashed line in Fig. 4(d) as a function of the bulldozer
displacements.
The same test has been simulated analytically using the
energy balance approach, where the characteristic displace-
ment was calculated from the area below the softening
curves in Fig. 4(c). The length Lsb of the propagating shear
band is given as a function of the stress ratio r defined from
equation (2) and of the pressure pb, applied by the bulldozer
at the top of the slope
s
pb  p0 h 1 2El h
Lsb  4
p  r r r p  r
 SHEAR BAND PROPAGATION ANALYSIS OF SUBMARINE SLOPE STABILITY 191
12

322
10

Measured strain:
08 203

06

04 125
78

02 52
30
20
13
0
(a) 0 200 400 600 800
Cable coordinate: mm
(b)

05 30

Analytical energy balance

Shear stress at interface: kPa

Displacement at the top: mm

04 25
Experiment
OC Numerical calculation
20
03 NC
15
02
10

01
5

0 0
0 5 10 15 20 0 100 200 300 400
Relative displacement: mm Shear band length: mm
(c) (d)

Fig. 4. Shear band propagation in a kaolinite clay slope: (a) experimental set-up; (b) evolution of measured compressive strains in the sliding layer
for different levels of applied force (N); (c) strain softening in the interface tests; (d) evolution of the shear band length

where p0 is the initial lateral pressure (at rest). The bulldozer After exceeding the critical length, the catastrophic SBP took
displacement is given by place under practically constant bulldozer force and was
around 30 times faster than the progressive SBP, which, as
Lsb   mentioned above, was fully controlled by the rate of increase of
1 L2
ub x xdx pb Lsb  r  g sb 5 the bulldozer force.
El 2h
0

and eliminating pb between equations (4) and (5) gives the

parabolic relationship between ub and Lsb, shown as the solid SHEAR BAND PROPAGATION IN NON-LINEAR
line in Fig. 4(d). Analytical and numerical predictions in SLAB LANDSLIDES
Fig. 3(d) match within 10%, but more importantly, they both Landslide triggers and controls
fit reasonably well the measured shear band length (data Application of the SBP approach in a GIS-based determi-
points in Fig. 4(d)). nistic and probabilistic stability analysis of offshore projects
This example provides both direct experimental evidence of requires analytical criteria, which have to be validated experi-
the SBP in a slope built of saturated, normally to lightly mentally and numerically along the lines described in the
overconsolidated clay (relevant for submarine slides) and previous section. The validation is not, however, the only
confirmation that the energy balance approach is capable of obstacle to overcome. Existing criteria do not explicitly account
its quantification. It does, however, similarly to earlier experi- for common landslide triggers and controls, such as seismic
mental SBP studies (e.g. Saurer, 2010; Saurer & Puzrin, 2011), loads, cyclic shear strength degradation and existing excess
simulate progressive SBP that is, under gradually increasing pore water pressures. This, in fact, is relatively easy to achieve
external forces (in this case the weight of the bulldozer). This (Puzrin et al., 2015) through modifying the shear stress ratio
was achieved intentionally, by choosing the 10 inclination of
the chute, which was not sufficient for the gravitational shear g h  r s tan kh  1
r ; where
stress g to exceed the residual shear strength r (i.e. r , 0). p  r s1
Under such conditions propagation of the shear band can be 6
1
terminated at any moment by keeping the bulldozer load
constant, allowing for more accurate measurements of the d k1  ru
shear band length. Of primary interest for translational by adding to driving forces the pseudo-static earthquake-
submarine landslides is, however, the catastrophic SBP (i.e. induced shear stress, proportional to the peak ground accel-
under constant external forces) and not the progressive one. eration amax
By increasing inclination of the chute and making the
amax
gravitational shear stress larger than the residual shear strength h kh h cos C h cos 7
(i.e. 0 , r , 1), the catastrophic SBP has also been recorded. g

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 192 PUZRIN, GERMANOVICH AND FRIEDLI
r

0 1 Stable zone (r < 0)

Quasi-stable zone (0 < r < 1)

Failure initiation zone (r > 1)

(a)

z
i z = f(x)
z2 = f(x2)

h dx2

x1 0 x2
x

i
z1 = f(x1)
Li
dx1
(b)

Fig. 5. Shear band propagation in a curved slope: (a) slope zonation (courtesy of David Rushton, Fugro); (b) slope geometry

and making peak and residual strength proportional to
coefficients of seismic degradation d and excess pore water
pressure ru ue/h
p s r kn kd 1  ru h cos 8 slopes exhibiting an S-shaped Gaussian profile (Adams &
where kh is the pseudostatic coefficient; s is the ratio between
the peak and residual shear strength, referred to here as
sensitivity; and k 020030 is the undrained shear strength
coefficient for normally consolidated sediments.
Two earthquake-loading factors, d (the degradation index)
and kh (the pseudostatic coefficient), can be related to
the earthquake parameters amax, the peak horizontal ground
acceleration, and M, the earthquake magnitude (Boulanger &
Idriss, 2004). The factor C is recommended for earth dams
to be in a range around 05 (Hynes-Griffin & Franklin, 1984);
for submarine slopes, Dimmock et al. (2012) treated C as a
probabilistic value with a standard deviation of 008 around a
mean of 023 (specific values of C depend on the value of
the Newmark permanent slope displacement adopted as the
initiation of failure).
The existing SBP approaches have been developed for
a case of an infinite or semi-infinite slope. In submarine
settings, however, slopes can be typically characterised by
monotonically decreasing functions (Fig. 3), with many
Schlager, 2000), formed as a result, for example, of tectonic
regime, a drape-covered scarp or a pile of debris from a
previous landslide. In all these cases, it is logical to assume
that the initial weak zone would appear parallel to the slope
in its steepest part, where the combined action of the gravity
and seismic loads could overcome the degraded peak shear
resistance of the soil. It seems that an important prerequisite
for the applicability of the SBP approach lies in relaxing the
infinite slope assumption and moving towards the actual
non-linear slope geometry with varying angle of inclination
(x).
Indeed, for a non-linear geometry the varying shear stress
ratio r(x), defined by equation (6) by way of (x), appears
to be a rather powerful tool (Puzrin et al., 2015). It allows for
a slope to be mapped into three types of zones (Fig. 5(a))

(a) unstable zone (1  r), where driving forces are larger

Two-dimensional SBP initiation and arrest criteria
Taking care of the triggers is an important step enabling a
more realistic prediction of the critical length. This, however,
solves only a part of the problem. Indeed, the main challenge
for SBP application to real-life landslide risk assessment lies
in the practical difficulties in determining the length of the
initial weak zone (to be compared with the critical length).
As described in the introduction, in contrast to local triggers
such as methane hydrate decomposition and local fluid
fluxes, it is not clear how only a portion of an infinite slope
would be weakened by regional triggers, such as earthquakes
or sedimentation.
than the peak strength
(b) stable zone (r , 0), where driving forces are smaller than
the residual strength
(c) the intermediate quasi-stable zone (1 , r  0).
Within the LE approach the only zone which fails is the
unstable zone. In contrast, for the SBP stability analysis it can
be assumed that earthquake loading causes the gravitational
and seismic driving forces to overcome the degraded peak
shear strength at all the points of the sliding surface within
the unstable zone. This results in the shear stress ratio r  1
and the formation of the initial shear band of length Li,

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 SHEAR BAND PROPAGATION ANALYSIS OF SUBMARINE SLOPE STABILITY
Horizontal displacement: m
00
07
15
22
30
37
45
1200
Shear band length at arrest: m
1000
800
600
400
200
0
0 02
Characteristic displacement, : m
Fig. 6. Numerical validation of the 2D SBP initiation and arrest criteria: (a) numerical model of a slope with contours of horizontal displacements
after SBP arrest; (b) comparison of numerical and analytical predictions of final shear band length
where the shear strength drops to its residual value r. If
this length exceeds a critical value, the initial shear band
will propagate catastrophically into the quasi-stable zone
with 0  r , 1, and subsequently arrest somewhere within the
stable zone of r , 0, potentially causing a translational slab
landslide.
In contrast to the previous work, which focused on
an infinite slope, in the proposed approach the SBP is fully
controlled by the changing topography. On one hand, this is a
significant advantage bathymetry in modern offshore
projects is determined with an excellent spatial resolution.
On the other hand, the application of the SBP approach to
non-linear slopes requires a 2D propagation criterion, which
can be significantly more difficult to derive in a closed form
required by the GIS-based PSSA.
Submarine slopes are relatively mild and long, with the
curvature radii being much larger than the thickness of the
sliding layer (Puzrin et al., 2015). Furthermore, the slope
inclination and curvature in such slopes are changing very
slowly. Therefore, it can be assumed that the principal
normal stresses are acting in the sliding layer on the planes
normal to the sliding surface. Although the energy balance
calculations using equilibrium in curvilinear coordinates are
rather cumbersome (Puzrin et al., 2015), their outcome is
surprisingly simple: it follows that the one-dimensional (1D)
SBP criterion (1) for an infinite slope also gives a reasonably
conservative estimate for a 2D topography
rs loading kh 00057, decreasing the characteristic displace-

1 El s cos i 2Eu
Li  Lcr 1 9
r Eu s1
The only difference is that the 2D criterion uses an average
shear stress ratio r calculated based on the average gravita-
tional shear stress, which in turn is calculated using the
average slope of the initial shear band (Fig. 5(b))
s f f x2  f x1 =x2  x1  kh g  1
r 10
s1
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193
20 m
200 m
(a)
Numerical calculation
Analytical SBP approach
04 06 08
(b)
As the shear band grows, this average slope decreases and the
average r approaches zero, in which case the critical length
becomes infinite and the shear band should arrest. It follows
that while equation (9) gives a criterion for the initiation of
the SBP, condition
r 0 11
provides a static estimate for the SBP arrest, which has also
been found by Germanovich et al. (2016) to provide the exact
arrest criterion for a dynamic SBP.
Example
An example of the application of the SBP initiation and
arrest criteria is shown in Fig. 6. A 20 m thick sliding layer is
elastic (El Eu E in plane strain undrained loading) and
has a 200 m long steeper portion with a slope of 4, flanked
on both sides by 200 m long milder slopes of 2, ending with
horizontal surfaces (Fig. 6(a)). The parameters of the layer
and the interface are given in Table 1. For this set of
parameters, according to criteria (9) and (10), pseudo-static
acceleration defined by the coefficient kh 00057 results for
the steepest Li 200 m slope in the shear stress ratio r 102
and critical length Lcr 203 m . Li 200 m. That is, the
initial shear band would develop in the steepest part of the
slope at the bottom of the sliding layer, but would not pro-
pagate. It follows that, for the same set of parameters and
ment , 04 m would result in Lcr , Li 200 m and trigger
shear band propagation, which would continue dynamically
and arrest, according to criteria (11), when the shear stress
ratio drops to r 0. From equation (10) and the geometry
of the layer, the final length of the arrested shear band is
Lf 879 m.
These analytical predictions have been compared to finite-
element simulations of the same problem. A numerical finite-
element model was created within Abaqus Explicit using
Lagrangian plane strain elements. The elastic parameters of
 194 PUZRIN, GERMANOVICH AND FRIEDLI
Table 1. Parameters of the SBP example
Parameter E s
Units MPa kN/m3
Value 50 10 2 02
the sliding layer correspond to those in Table 1: 0498
and E E(1  2) 375 MPa. The zero thickness shear
interface at the bottom of the layer is rigid-plastic with
exponential strain (displacement) softening
r involves the steeper part of the slope failing as a result of
r p  r e3=r 12
3 the SBP initiated by the combination of the earthquake
with parameters derived from Table 1, using equation (8):
p 15 kPa; r 75 kPa. In Fig. 6(b) the final length of the
shear band Lf is plotted for different values of the charac-
For larger values of ,
teristic displacement . application of
the pseudo-static acceleration to the soil body (after applying
gravity) does not lead to the propagation of the shear band
and its length remains below Li 200 m. Below the thre-
shold value of , 035 m, however, the shear band propa-
gates dynamically and arrests within a final length range
of Lf 810990 m. The final contours of equal horizontal
displacements are shown in Fig. 6(a). In the presented
example, the simplified analytical criteria have been capable
of estimating the threshold value of the characteristic dis-
placement that will initiate the SBP and the final length of
the arrested shear band Lf within 15% of those calculated
using the finite-element analysis.
Palaeo-landslide validation
Gray et al. (2015) validated these SBP criteria against
geomorphological and seismic data from translational
palaeo-landslides observed in the sea floor of the Caspian
Sea (Fig. 7(a)). Using soil parameters defined on the basis of
the field and laboratory tests, the SBP criteria allowed for
back-calculation of seismic forces needed to cause a family of
1025 m deep translational palaeo-landslides all related to
the same seismic event, which took place around 5000 years
before present (BP). The available seismicity of the area
(amax 04 g, for the corresponding return period) appeared
to be sufficient to fail these slopes through the SBP mech-
anism, whereas the LE approach required much higher peak
ground accelerations (amax 06 g).
SHEAR BAND PROPAGATION IN SPREADING
FAILURES
The new criteria quantifying SBP initiation in the unstable
zone and its arrest in the stable zone provide an instrument
for assessing the final length of the shear band based on the
actual non-linear slope geometry. If at the up-/downslope
ends of the shear band the sliding layer reaches active/passive
pressure, the SBP will lead to a global slab failure resulting in
a translational landslide. The size of the failed slab, however,
may not necessarily represent the final dimensions of the area
affected by the landslide. In particular, at the upslope end of
the failed slab, where the sea-floor level drops due to the slab
movement, this unloading can cause development of spread-
ing failure block mechanisms retrogressively propagating
uphill into the stable zone (e.g. Kvalstad et al., 2005). For
onshore spreads, Locat et al. (2011) showed that horsts tip
angles are around 45 /2, confirming the active failure
conditions within the block mechanism.
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k d ru
m
075 05 1333 04
Traces of such enormous, 200 m deep submarine spread-
ing failures, which took place around 40 000 years BP, can
be recognised (Gray et al., 2015) in the Caspian Sea
sea-floor bathymetry (Fig. 7(a)) and its geophysical cross-
sections (Fig. 7(b)). The most likely scenario for these failures
and excess pore water pressures due to rapid sedimentation.
After the earthquake, the resulting slab failure removed
support from the stable milder part of the slope, causing
a retrogressive spreading failure. Curiously, the sliding
surface of the retrogressive spreading slide is located 40 m
above the translational sliding surface. Another curious
fact: at the same location in a later (5000 years BP)
and more shallow (20 m deep) event, the steeper part of
the slope also failed and removed support from the stable
part, but in this case no retrogressive spreading failure took
place.
It is tempting to explore the ability of the SBP approach to
explain and quantify these spreading failure phenomena
using simple analytical criteria. In fact, although Locat et al.
(2011, 2013) and Quinn et al. (2011, 2012) did propose that
onshore spreading landslides in sensitive clays can be linked
to the uphill SBP, previous analytical studies have focused
mainly on the problem of the shear band propagating
catastrophically (i.e. under constant external forces) uphill
from a cut in a slope (Palmer & Rice, 1973; Quinn et al.,
2011, 2012). This shear band propagates into the quasi-stable
zone, where the driving force (combination of gravitational
shear stress and initial normal pressure in the sliding layer)
is larger than the residual shear strength. In most cases
this implies that sub-horizontal normal stresses in the sliding
body may decrease uphill from the cut, that is, become
tensile, which is not always realistic for soft submarine
deposits and will not result in the active spreading failure
mechanism.
Within the context of the proposed SBP analysis of the
submarine slope stability, the conditions for the uphill SBP
leading to spreading failures are, however, quite different to
those studied in the literature. Once initiated in the unstable
zone and reaching a critical length, the shear band will
always propagate catastrophically through the entire quasi-
stable zone, and will arrest in the stable zone, eventually
causing a slab failure (Fig. 8(a)). It follows that the spreading
failure can only occur in the stable zone, uphill from the
quasi-stable zone, where further SBP will be driven by grad-
ual removal of the slab material at the bottom of the slope.
This unloading causes a decrease in the supporting pressure
at the bottom, leading to the progressive uphill (also called
retrogressive) propagation of the shear band. Unlike the
catastrophic SBP, which takes place under constant external
forces, retrogressive SBP is driven by changes in external
forces, which uniquely determine the shear band length. This
is similar to the bulldozer experiment, only in this case
the bulldozer would be placed at the bottom of the slope
and would move away from the sliding layer. Under such
conditions the pressures in the sliding body will always
remain compressive and will not drop below the active
earth pressure, allowing the length of the shear band to be
linked to the dimensions of the spreading failure block
mechanisms.
 SHEAR BAND PROPAGATION ANALYSIS OF SUBMARINE SLOPE STABILITY 195

AC
G
PS
A

MM700
head scarp
10 5 0 10 km

Geotechnical test type High: 135

Borehole
MM900
Box core Water depth: m
head scarp
Drop/Gravity core
Piston core Low: 400
Cone penetration test

AUV chirp profiler section line

3DHR section line
AUV survey extent

0 500 1000 2000 m

(a)

SW Main headwall NE
MM900 failure scarp (step- scarp
up of MM700 basal shear) Soil unit A
MM900
ploughing and
run-out zone

MM700

Older mega landslide

100 m
MM700
basal shear 1000 m
S Tension cracks Compression ridges N
MM900 blocky
zone

MM900 initiation
scarp MM900 Shallower shear surface of
shear surface contemporaneous landslide
MM900
ploughing and
run-out zone

20 m

500 m

(b)

Fig. 7. A section of the Caspian Sea floor, after Gray et al. (2015), with permission of OTC: (a) bathymetry and location; (b) geophysical
downslope cross-section

Kvalstad et al. (2005) proposed a spreading active failure results in analytical spreading failure criteria, in terms of
block mechanism for submarine landslides (Fig. 8(b)) the critical drop in the sea-floor level hacr, necessary to
driven by the drop ha of the sea-floor level due to a slab propagate a shear band progressively uphill at the depth hz
failure downslope. The mechanism postulates a drop of through the entire length of the active failure block
the shear strength to its residual level at the bottom of the L3  2hzcos23
block, which is impossible without the SBP cutting through
the entire block length. Using the energy balance approach, 
ba  0
Puzrin et al. (2016) derived a progressive SBP criterion, p 13
which in combination with the mechanism in Fig. 8(b) ha  hacr hz 1  ba

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 196 PUZRIN, GERMANOVICH AND FRIEDLI
r3 < 0
3
hz
1

1 L3
r3 < 0 3
LSB
hz
L3
(a) LSB

3 (a)

x(L)
hz ha pa
0 L3
LSB
(b)
Fig. 8. Spreading failure mechanism: (a) progressive uphill shear band
propagation into stable zone driven by drop in seabed level;
(b) schematic layout for derivation of spreading failure criteria
where
q slope from the top of the failed slab, it is interesting to explore
41  1=sr3 K0 =k  2 s  1kE =sh
ba
1=k  2
is the retrogressive SBP parameter; K0 is the at-rest earth
pressure coefficient
2Eu s tan 3  1
kE ; r3
p s1
If either one of the conditions (13) is not satisfied, spreading
failure is not possible.
In the example in Fig. 6, described by parameters in Table
1, for values of , 04 m the shear band propagates upslope
through the quasi-stable slope of 2, and arrests in the stable
horizontal zone. If the movement of the resulting slab is
sufficient for the sliding layer to reach active failure, criteria
(13) can be applied to explore the possibility of the spreading
failure. Using the additional parameters 3 0 and K0 08
and substituting parameters from Table 1 into criteria (13)
(15) shows that for  006 m the critical drop in the
sea-floor level hacr becomes smaller than the thickness of the
sliding layer hacr  hz 20 m, thus allowing for spreading to
occur, under the condition that a sufficient amount of
material can be removed downslope.
When applied to the observed deep spreading failures
in Fig. 7, using soil parameters defined on the basis of the
field and laboratory tests, these criteria allowed for back-
calculating the characteristic displacement (Puzrin et al.,
2015b). It appears that, for a rather narrow range of
1016 cm, spreading failure could indeed take place in
the deeper but not in the shallower events. This range is also
consistent with the observed 40 m step in the sliding surface
between the slab and spreading landslides. Combined with
the results of the field vane shear tests, the back-calculated
range of 1016 cm allowed for predicting the thickness of
the slip surface in a range of 35 cm, which was close to that
observed in the soil samples extracted from the correspond-
ing depth.
SHEAR BAND PROPAGATION IN PLOUGHING
FAILURES
With the proposed SBP approach capable of identifying
condition for failure spreading into the stable zone of the
hz
3
pp h z + hp
x(L) x
x hz
0
L3
LSB
(b)
Fig. 9. Ploughing failure mechanism: (a) progressive downhill shear
band propagation into stable zone driven by rise in seabed level;
(b) schematic layout for derivation of ploughing failure criteria
z cos 3 what happens at the bottom of the failed slab after the
catastrophic SBP has arrested in the stable zone. In other
words, what makes some of the landslides run out over the
14 top of the stable zone, while others plough into it?
The answer becomes obvious once it is realised that plough-
ing failure (Fig. 9(a)) has a direct analogy to spreading failure
(Fig. 8(a)). Germanovich et al. (2016) have demonstrated
that, due to dynamic unloading, passive failure in the sliding
15 layer is more likely to take place after the shear band arrest
than during its dynamic downhill propagation. Therefore,
similarly to spreading, ploughing occurs after the arrest of the
catastrophic SBP in the stable zone, only in this case followed
by the passive (as opposed to active) failure in the sliding layer,
downhill (as opposed to uphill) from the quasi-stable zone.
Further SBP in the stable zone is driven by gradual piling of
the slab material at the top of the stable zone. This loading
causes an increase in the pressure, leading to the progressive
downhill SBP and uniquely determining its length. These are
the exact conditions of the bulldozer experiment.
Similarly to the spreading failure analysis, a passive failure
block mechanism is postulated (Fig. 9(b)), driven by the rise
hp of the sea-floor level due to a slab failure taking place
above. For this mechanism to materialise, the shear band
should have the possibility to cut through the entire length of
the next passive failure block, before the previous block starts
crumbling and runs out over the top of the stable zone. Using
an energy balance approach similar to that in Puzrin et al.
(2016) the progressive SBP criterion can be combined with
the mechanism in Fig. 9(b) to produce analytical ploughing
failure criteria, in terms of the critical rise in the sea-floor
level, hpcr, necessary to propagate a shear band progressively
downhill at the depth hz through the entire length of the
passive failure block L3  2hzcos23

bp  1
bp , 1; or p  16
hp  hpcr hz bp  1
where
q
41  1=sr3  K0 =k  2 s  1kE =sh z cos 3
bp ;
1=k  2
2El
kE
p
17

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 SHEAR BAND PROPAGATION ANALYSIS OF SUBMARINE SLOPE STABILITY 197

Geomorphology
Scarp
Landslide outline
Internal boundary
(crack, ridge, shear)
Compression,
N ploughing and run-out
Debris flow
Exposed scarp/
pull apart window
Blocks/
0 500 1000 2000 m tension cracks
AUV survey extent Spreading

Fig. 10. Bathymetric hillshade (left) with geomorphological interpretation of the MM900 landslides (right), after Gray et al. (2015), with
permission of OTC

is the progressive SBP parameter. If either one of the
conditions (16) is not satisfied, the ploughing is not possible.
If the minimum rise of the sea-floor surface level hpcr at
which the ploughing can take place is larger than the maxi-
mum step in the sea-floor surface hmax at which the soil can
stand unsupported, the first passive failure block will start
crumbling over the top of the stable zone, causing the
landslide to run out. The corresponding run-out criterion
follows from equation (16)
 
1 hmax 2
bp  18
hz
where the maximum possible free-standing step in the sea-
floor surface can be estimated from static limit analysis as
4 av
p
hmax 
using the average undrained peak shear strength in
the layer av
p .
In the example in Fig. 6, described by parameters in
Table 1, for values of , 04 m the shear band propagates
downslope through the quasi-stable slope of 2, and arrests
in the stable horizontal zone. If the movement of the
resulting slab is sufficient for the sliding layer to reach
passive failure, criteria (16) can be applied to explore the
possibility of the ploughing/run-out. Using the additional
parameters 3 0 and K0 08 and substituting parameters
from Table 1 into equations (15)(17) shows that, for
 0015 m, the critical rise in the sea-floor level hpcr
becomes larger than zero, thus allowing for ploughing to
occur, under the condition that enough material can be piled
up at the top of the stable zone. This pile, however, can
support itself only up to the height of hmax 3 m, estimated
from expression (19) using the average undrained peak shear
strength in the layer av
p p =2 75 kPa. Substituting hmax
into the run-out criterion (18) shows that ploughing can only
take place for the values of 0015 m   0159 m. For
larger values of the slope will run out.
For the validation of the ploughing/run-out criteria, a
number of shallow (210 m deep) palaeo-landslides have
been identified within the sea-floor area shown in Fig. 10,
some of them with ploughing failures, others with run-outs.
Using soil parameters defined on the basis of the field and
laboratory tests, the criteria allowed for most of these failure
types to be predicted correctly.
SHEAR BAND PROPAGATION ANALYSIS OF
SUBMARINE SLOPE STABILITY
Landslide risk analysis of large underwater basins requires
determination of probabilities of failure for multiple seabed
locations, derived using probabilistic slope stability analysis.
19 This analysis applies stochastic procedures to GIS distri-
butions of deterministic safety factors calculated using LE.
This section proposes an alternative simple SBP approach to
calculating co- and post-seismic deterministic safety factors
for submarine slopes with a non-linear geometry, based on (a)
the slope zonation with respect to the shear stress ratio and (b)
the energy balance criteria for the progressive and catastrophic
SBP initiation and arrest defined in the previous sections.
Limiting equilibrium analysis
Consider a curved slope surface (Fig. 11(a)), with the
origin of the coordinate system chosen at the point of the zero
curvature with the maximum inclination angle 0. The
following two slope inclinations can be defined
1
tan i  kh 20
1
tan q  kh 21
s

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 198 PUZRIN, GERMANOVICH AND FRIEDLI
z
q z = f(x)

0
xL Hi 0 x x

i
q Li

Lq

(a)

z
z = f(x)

i
q
0
q x

i
Li

Lq

(b)

Fig. 11. SBP approach to the slope stability analysis for: (a) local and (b) average shear stress ratio

corresponding to the unity and zero values of the local shear It follows that for the slope inclination f(x)  tani from
stress ratio r in equation (6), respectively. equations (6) and (20) the local shear stress ratio is
In order to derive local safety factors for a particular
location on the sliding surface of a mild, long, non-linear s f x kh   1
rx 1 23
submarine slope, the practical LE approach (e.g. Dimmock s1
et al., 2012) treats this location as a part of an infinite slope
with the same inclination. Within this approach, the failure so that in the interval xi  Li  x  xi in Fig. 11(a) progressive
takes place simultaneously along the entire length of the failure can take place as a result of increasing seismic loading
slope once the driving forces exceed the peak shear strength. and degrading shear strength, and the slope is unstable with
Hence, for the slope in Fig. 11(a), it would produce the fol- the local safety factor calculated with respect to the residual
lowing local safety factors with respect to the peak strength strength

p 1 1 r 1 1
FSx 22 FSi x 1 24
g h f x kh g h s f x kh
From equations (20) and (21) it follows that in Fig. 11(a) For the slope inclination tanq  f(x) , tani the local shear
the slope is unstable inside and stable outside the interval stress ratio is
x i  L i  x  x i.
s f x kh   1
0  rx ,1 25
s1
Shear band propagation analysis using local shear stress ratio
In contrast to LE, which requires the peak shear strength that is, the slope in the intervals xq  Lq  x , xi  Li and
to be mobilised simultaneously at all of the points on the xi , x  xq in Fig. 11(a) is quasi-stable. If the length of the
sliding surface, the SBP approach allows for progressive and initial failure zone Li is larger than the critical length (9),
catastrophic failure, in which the peak strength is only calculated using the corresponding average shear stress ratio
mobilised locally and then softened by external forces, trans- over the unstable zone
ferring the load to the neighbouring soil. If this load becomes
sufficiently large to overcome the peak shear strength also s Hi =Li kh   1
r 26
in the neighbouring soil elements, they will in turn start s1
softening and the shear band will grow. It follows that at any
moment in time the peak strength is mobilised only in the the shear band will propagate catastrophically through the
relatively short end zones of the propagating shear band, entire quasi-stable zone resulting in the safety factor cal-
while the major part of the sliding surface has already fully culated with respect to the residual strength
softened. For the slope to remain stable under such con- r 1 1
ditions, the local driving forces should remain below the FSq x 1 27
residual strength, and not below the peak strength as in LE. g h s f x kh

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 SHEAR BAND PROPAGATION ANALYSIS OF SUBMARINE SLOPE STABILITY 199

Limit equilibrium Annual probability of failure Shear band propagation

<1/10 000 Increased probability of
failure through shear
band propagation into
the quasi-stable zone

<1/1000
Bathimetry contours (5 m)

N N

0 125 250 500 750 1000 0 125 250 500 750 1000
m m

Fig. 12. Annual probabilities of failure predicted using: LE (left) and SBP (right) approaches (after Rushton et al., 2015), with permission of
OTC

For the slope inclination f(x) , tanq Finally, for a run-out into the stable downslope zone
x , xq  Lq, the safety factor can be defined using
s f x kh   1 expression (18)
rx ,0 28
s1
that is, the slope in the intervals x , xq  Lq and xq , x in hmax hmax
FSs x p
; for bp x  1 32
Fig. 11(a) is stable with the safety factor calculated with hpcr hz bp x  1
respect to the peak strength
relating the minimum rise, hpcr, necessary for the ploughing
p 1 1
FSs x .1 29 failure, to the maximum step in the sea-floor surface, hmax, at
g h f x kh which the soil can stand unsupported.
If the length of the initial failure zone Li is smaller than the
critical length (9), the shear band will not propagate into the
quasi-stable zone; that is, this zone will remain stable and its Shear band propagation analysis using average shear stress
safety factor should also be calculated using expression (29). ratio
In the stable zone, equation (29) provides safety factors It follows that under relevant conditions the SBP approach
exclusively against translational failures. Analysis of the produces significantly lower safety factors over large areas of
SBP in non-linear slopes (Puzrin et al., 2015) allows for the slope than the LE approach. In the SBP approach, using
calculation of the normal stresses in the sliding layer. If at the local shear stress ratios may, however, still under-predict the
boundary of the stable upslope zone xq , x these normal actual size of the quasi-stable zone. Indeed, from equation
stresses reach active earth pressures, they could lead to post- (11) it follows that the shear band will arrest when the average
seismic spreading failure in this zone. Rigorous definition of shear stress ratio r defined by equation (10) becomes equal
the safety factor against spreading failure requires further to zero, that is, when it arrives at the average inclination of
study. As a simple first approximation it can, for instance, be tanq defined by equation (21). Because the shear band can
defined using equations (13)(15) propagate both upwards and downwards from the unstable
p
zone, the most conservative estimate of the size of the quasi-
hacr hz 1  ba x
FSs x ; for ba x  0 stable zone length is obtained when this average inclination is
ha ha measured from both sides of the unstable zone (Fig. 11(b)).
30 In this case, the average safety factor for the entire quasi-
stable zone is equal to unity. Subsequent analysis of the
relating the possible drop ha of the sea-floor level due to a possible spreading, ploughing and run-out in the stable zone,
downslope slab failure to the minimum drop, hacr, necessary outside the quasi-stable zone, can still be carried out using
to propagate a shear band progressively uphill at the depth hz safety factors (30)(32).
through the entire length of the active failure block.
Similarly, if at the boundary of the stable downslope zone
x , xq  Lq normal stresses reach passive earth pressures, the
safety factor against post-seismic ploughing failure in this Application of the SBP approach to GIS-based slope
zone can be defined using expressions (16) and (17) stability analysis
p
Rushton et al. (2015) incorporated the SBP approach,
hpcr hz bp x  1
FSs x ; for using local shear stress ratio, into GIS-based deterministic
hp hp 31 and probabilistic stability analysis and applied it to the area
bp x  1 of the Caspian Sea floor indicated in Fig. 7(a) and Fig. 10.
The resulting annual probability of failure predicted by
relating the possible rise hp of the sea-floor level due to an the SBP approach (Fig. 12) is an order of magnitude higher
upslope landslide to the minimum rise, hpcr, necessary to than the one predicted by the LE approach, approaching the
propagate a shear band progressively downhill at the depth hz observed historical landslide frequencies and contributing to
through the entire length of the passive failure block. landslide risk assessment (Hill et al., 2015).

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 200 PUZRIN, GERMANOVICH AND FRIEDLI
CONCLUSIONS
The paper summarises recent developments in the SBP
approach allowing for catastrophic and progressive failure
to be accounted for in simplified submarine slope stability
analysis. This approach covers a wide variety of potential
failure mechanisms: slab failures, spreadings, ploughings
and run-outs, and provides analytical criteria for predicting
their occurrence. The simple form of the resulting criteria
allowed for their incorporation into GIS-based deterministic
and probabilistic slope stability analysis for offshore devel-
opments. In contrast to conventional limiting equilibrium
approaches routinely used in such analysis, the SBP approach
was capable of explaining enormous dimensions of observed
palaeo-landslides and predicting annual probabilities of
failure that are orders of magnitude higher and, therefore,
closer to the observed historical frequencies.
Various components of the SBP approach to submarine
slope stability have been validated experimentally, numeri-
cally and against historical field data. The energy balance
approach used for the derivation of the proposed analytical
criteria is, however, based on rather restricting assumptions
and may not necessarily produce the most accurate results.
Several studies devoted to refining the criteria (e.g. Viesca,
personal communication, 2015; Zhang et al., 2015;
Germanovich et al., 2016) and validating them experimen-
tally and numerically (e.g. Friedli, personal communication,
2015) are currently in press, but much more work is still
required. It is, however, hoped that the proposed framework
of the SBP analysis of submarine slope stability will serve as
guidance for future developments in this area.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Valuable contributions of Thomas Gray (Gray
Geophysical), Andy Hill (BP), Brian Mackenzie (Fugro),
David Rushton (Fugro), Andreas Stcklin (ETHZ), Sihyun
Kim (Georgia Tech) and discussions with Ed Clukey (BP),
Robert Viesca (Tufts University), Jim Rice (Harvard
University), Denis Brunsden (Halcrow), Mark Lee (Ebor),
Andy Mills (AM Geomorphology) and Pavel Trapper
(ETHZ) are greatly appreciated.
NOTATION
amax peak ground acceleration
ba retrogressive shear band propagation parameter
bp progressive shear band propagation parameter
C pseudo-static seismic factor
d thickness of slip surface/shear band
El plane strain deformation modulus in loading
Eu plane strain deformation modulus in unloading
FS safety factor
f(x) slope surface geometry
g gravitational acceleration
Hi height of the stable zone
h thickness of sliding layer
ha drop of the sea-floor level
hacr critical drop in sea-floor level
hmax maximum possible free-standing step in sea-floor surface
hp rise in the sea-floor level
hpcr critical rise in sea-floor level
hz depth of slip surface
K0 earth pressure coefficient at rest
k undrained shear strength coefficient
kh pseudo-static coefficient
Lcr critical length of shear band
Lf final length of shear band
Li length of initial shear band
Lq length of the quasi-stable zone
Lsb length of shear band
L3 length of active/passive failure block
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M earthquake magnitude
p0 initial lateral pressure in sliding layer
pa active failure pressure in sliding layer
pp passive failure pressure in sliding layer
r shear stress ratio
r average shear stress ratio
ru normalised excess pore water pressure
s sensitivity, ratio between peak and residual shear strength
ub bulldozer displacement
ue excess pore water pressure
slope angle
i slope inclination at the boundary of the stable zone
q slope inclination at the boundary of the quasi-stable zone
shear strain within slip surface
submerged unit weight of soil
relative displacement between boundaries of shear band
characteristic displacement between boundaries of shear
band
d seismic degradation index
r slip weakening length/displacement
x lateral strain in sliding layer
g gravitational shear stress
h pseudo-static earthquake-induced shear stress
p undrained peak shear resistance of shear band
av
p average undrained peak shear strength in sliding layer
r undrained residual shear resistance of shear band
coefficient defined in equation (6)
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