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A woman sits amongst what remains of her house. Hundreds of thousands of people have been
left homeless and without any possessions. Photo. Samira Shackle. New Statesman.

It was a study of fractals in Elliot Wave Principle and its applicability to the Theory of Chaos
that brought me back from a hiatus of putting my thoughts on disaster management and related
issues. Reflecting on natural disasters, the destruction they wreaked over the years, and the
emerging trends of increasingly extreme weather patterns pricked my curiosity that ³higher
degree fractals´ of disasters are playing out in 2010. As the world¶s attention got caught in the
frenzy of the FIFA battle of the best soccer teams, news about natural disasters (floods,
landslides, typhoons, etc) in the Asian region especially over the past two months received scarce
interest. The natural disasters which occurred in the past few years were apparently unwinding
a bigger spiral in the broader picture of chaos. This time around, the natural calamities are
getting worse and if perceived through the ³fractals´ looking glass, it¶s obvious the disasters are
of a higher degree.

As 2010 unfold, flash floods which previously were rare occurrences in Singapore started to
become a regular feature beginning April. In much localized incidents, houses affected by the
flash flood were under ankle- deep during the heavy downpour. Hardly three months later
before more rounds of heavy downpours in mid June caused further flash floods which wreaked
havoc in many parts of central Singapore. During the inter-monsoon season it is not unusual to
have heavier downpours than normal. That it happened more often of late raised a lot of
questions as to the underlying causes . (i)

A young survivor helps to carry belongings out of the flood water in Lahore, south western
Pakistan. Photo. Samira Shackle. New Statesman.

In neighboring Malaysia, during the same week prolonged and unusually heavy rains
caused flash floods in several parts of Malacca and Johor Bharu. Luckily for the historical city
of Malacca, flood mitigation measures were almost completed, and were it not so, the situation
would have been worse and may be catastrophic.
ÿver in southern China, similar extreme weather which coincided with the annual storm season
lashed out with ferocity, killing at least 132 people and displaced 800,000. In the worst hit areas
in Nanchang, Jiangxi province, streets turned into rivers and people abandoned their homes. The
region saw varying scale of extreme weather from the worst droughts in living memory in south-
east China to areas inundated with three times the average rain for this period. In the industrial
hubs of the China coast ±Guangdong and Fujian, thousands of houses were destroyed and
businesses and power lines put out of action. Economic damage was estimated to be USD 12
billion. Disaster broke loose when fast-flowing rivers burst their banks and the ensuing
mudslides which buried homes. The Chinese National Meteorological Centre warned that the
worst has yet to come while noting that the scope and intensity of the rains have increased.

Agricultural production took a bashing with an estimated 500,000

Local residents evacuate to safety in flood-hit area of Nowshera. There is still no access to some
of the worst affected areas. Photo. Samira Shackle. New Statesman.

hectares (1.24m acres) of crops destroyed. While flooding is a regular feature of summer, the
meteorological centre confirmed that extreme weather events have increased in recent years,
with longer droughts and more intense rainfalls with ³damaging bursts´. (ii)

Continuing rain hampered rescue efforts aimed at assisting 4.4 million people evacuated from
their homes. Landslides cut off transportation and about 368,000 houses destroyed. The June
2010 floods in southern China have been especially heavy spreading across 10 provinces and
regions in the south and along the eastern coast. (iii)

It evoked memories of severe flooding in China in 1998 and the discovery then that many flood-
prevention dykes were of shoddy quality, obviously weak links which require attention within
the ambit of mitigation measures.

Brazil. Entire villages have been washed away by the flood waters. Photo. Getty Images

The same period saw extreme weather triggered disasters manifesting elsewhere including heat
waves across eastern Canada and US which broke hundreds of temperature records, south-west
monsoon storms in India, severe drought and large wildfires in Bolivia, and extreme
temperatures in Russia with severe droughts which destroyed almost 20% of the nation¶s crops.
Russia experienced the hottest summer on record for the country and a state of emergency
declared after almost 1000 incidents of forest fires with some close to the Moscow region. The
natural disasters across the globe covered the full spectrum of extreme weather. Provinces in
northern China suffered heat waves in July while the southern provinces received the onslaught
of monsoon rains. In all these disasters there were people killed or displaced from their homes,
houses damaged or destroyed. Severe storms (Hurricane Alex) made landfall over northeastern
Mexico while in the Asia-Pacific region Typhoon Conson caused destruction in its path through
Luzon, Philippines, Hainan Island (China) and also Vietnam. South China again got battered
with Typhoon Chanthu which brought more rainfall to the already soaked region of Guangdong.
(iv)

In Latin America, floods in north-east Brazil engulfed two states forcing at

Recent floods in Brazil have engulfed two states in the north-east, leaving about 1,000 people
missing and forcing at least 100,000 to flee their homes. Photo. Getty Images.

least 100,000 to flee their homes. Some towns have been nearly 100% destroyed, basically
wiped off the map. ÿver in South Asia more than 1 million people were affected by the worst
floods in north-western Pakistan for 35 years, the disaster attributed to the heaviest monsoon
rains in a generation. The disaster which is the worst in memory in Pakistan have devastated the
lives of more than 3 million people and killed more than 1,400 people. Humanitarian efforts are
being geared to reach an estimated 1.8 million in dire need of water food and shelter. Wherever
natural disaster strikes, access remains a major hurdle in providing assistance to affected areas as
the infrastructural framework are significantly damaged or destroyed.

The 2010 natural disasters to date unfolded greater fury in their intensity of onslaught and
destruction and the overall nature of their characteristics point to unwinding spirals of disaster
fractals of higher degree. Some already attributed 2010 as the Year of Disasters and the level of
destruction and sufferings these past few months make it most disastrous year on record.

References:
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Tags: 2010 Year of Disasters, damage, disaster, Disaster Management, disaster preparedness,
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