JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH, VOL. 100,NO.

A9, PAGES 16,999-17,013,SEPTEMBER 1, 1995

Coronal massejectionand stream interaction region characteristics

and their potential geomagneticeffectiveness

G. M. Lindsay, C. T. Russell,and J. G. Luhmann

hstituteof Geophysics
andPlanetaryPhysics,Universityof California,LosAngeles

Abstract. Previousstudieshave indicatedthat the largestgeomagneticstormsare caused

by extraordinaryincreasesin the solar wind velocity and/or southwardinterplanetary
magneticfield (IMF) producedby coronalmassejections(CMEs) and their associated
interplanetaryshocks. However, much more frequentsmall to moderateincreasesin solar
wind velocity and compressions in the IMF can be causedby either coronalmassejections
or fast/slowstreaminteractions.This studyexaminesthe relative statisticsof the
magnitudesof disturbances associatedwith the passageof both interplanetarycoronal
massejectionsand streaminteractionregions,usingan exceptionallycontinuousinter-
planetarydatabasefrom the PioneerVenus Orbiter at 0.7 AU throughoutmost of solar
cycle 21 (1979-1988). It is found that both streaminteractionsand CMEs produce
magneticfields significantlylarger than the nominalIMF. Increasesin field magnitude
that are up to 2 and 3 times higher than the ambientfield are observedfor streaminter-
actionregionsand CMEs, respectively. Both streaminteractionsand CMEs produce
largepositiveandnegativeBz components at 0.7 AU (,- 14 nT on average),but only
CMEs produceBz magnitudes greaterthan35 nT. CMEs are oftenassociated with
sustained
periodsof positiveor negativeBz,whereasstreaminteraction regionsare more
oftenassociatedwith fluctuatingBz. CMEs tendto producelarger solarwind electric
fields than streaminteractions. Yet streaminteractionstend to producelarger dynamic
pressuresthan CMEs. Dst predictionsbasedon the solarwind duskwardelectricfield
and dynamicpressureindicatethat CMEs producethe largestgeomagneticdisturbances
while the low-speedportion of streaminteractionregionsare leastgeomagnetically
effective. Both streaminteractionregionsand CMEs contributeto low and moderate
levels of activity with relative importancedeterminedby their solar-cycle-dependent
occurrence rates.

Introduction magnetotail,increasingmagnetotaillobe size and producing

a thinning of the current sheet. In responseto the drag
appliedto the Earth's magneticfield by the solar wind, the
Geomagneticactivity is caused by the transfer of current sheet also moves earthward. About 1 hour after the
momentum and energy from the solar wind to the
southwardturning of the IMF, reconnectionbeginsin the
magnetospherethat occurs in response to southward tail. If the IMF remains southward for several hours, the
interplanetarymagneticfields (IMFs) [FairfieM and Cahill,
associated steady duskward convection electric field
1966]. When the IMF possesses a southwardcomponentin
energizesthe ring current,therebyproducinga geomagnetic
the GSM coordinatesystem[Hirshbergand Colburn, 1969],
storm. When the IMF again turns northward and
reconnection between oppositely directed IMF and
reconnection ceases, the ring current decays, and the
magnetospheric fields occurson the daysidemagnetopause
magnetosphere returnsto a quietstate[Burtonet al., 1975].
[Dungey, 1961; Aubry and McPherron, 1971]. High solar
Two sourcesof solar wind conditionscontributing to
wind velocitiesenhancethe interactionby increasingthe flux
geomagneticstorm productionbecauseof their associated
of energytransportedinto the magnetosphere.Reconnection
strongsouthwardinterplanetarymagneticfields, high solar
producesforcesthat transportmagneticflux into the polar
wind velocities,and enhancedsolar wind dynamicpressures
caps. Erosionof flux from the daysidemagnetopause causes
are fast/slowstreaminteractionsand coronalmassejections
the nose of the magnetopauseto move earthward 1-2 RE
(CMEs). The streaminteractionregionrepresents the region
[Aubryet al., 1970]. The transportedflux buildsup in the
of compressionassociated
with the collisionbetween high-
Copyright1995 by the AmericanGeophysicalUnion. and low-speed solar wind streams. Compared to the
surroundingambientsolarwind, theplasmain the interaction
Papernumber95JA00525. region has higher density and magnetic field strength.
0148-0227/95/95JA-00525 $05.00 Twofoldmagneticfield compressionsanddynamicpressures
16,999
17,000 LINDSAY ET AL.' CORONAL MASS EJECT1ON AND STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS

3-4 timeshigherthan averagecan occur[e.g., Goslinget inclinationis lesssteepthanat solarmaximumwhenthe fast

al., 1978]. As a spacecraft passesthroughthe interaction streamsare slower. These effects may balanceout to
regionfrom the low-speedflow to the high-speed flow, an maintain,on average,the sameinterplanetary disturbance
increasein velocity and ion temperatureand a decreasein size for the associated streaminteractions.
ion density are observed. The peak in magneticfield Coronalmassejectionshavebeenwidelyassociated with
strengthoccursjust prior to enteringthe ambienthigh-speed geomagneticstorms, particularly storms producing the
flow. The faststreamportionof a streaminteractionregion largestvaluesof geomagnetic indices(Ap, Kp, Dst) [Burlaga
canhave speeds1.5-2.5 timesgreaterthanthe averagesolar et al., 1987; Tsurutaniet al., 1990; Goslinget al., 1991;
wind. Becausethe fast stream portion also exhibits Farrugiaet al., 1993]. UsingISEE 3 data,Goslinget al.
fluctuatingmagneticfields and has a high probabilityof [1991]concluded that93% of all majorgeomagnetic storms
enhanced southward IMF, enhanced valuesof the duskward (asdefinedby rpmax 8- andKp _>6- for at leastthree3-
component of the solarwind electricfield are likely in this hourintervalsduringa 24-hourperiod)occurring from 1978
region. However,sincethe durationof enhanced southward to 1982werecausedby CMEs drivinginterplanetary shocks.
IMF is usually--1 hour or less,the amountof sustainedUsingDst as thegeomagnetic stormindex,Tsurutani et al.
reconnectionthat may occur in conjunctionwith stream [1990] examinedthe same ISEE 3 data set and came to the
interactionpassageis limited. similar conclusionthat the largest storms were associated
At 1.0 AU, the average CME travels at nearly the with CME passage. In the Goslinget al. study,the major
averagesolarwind speed(--380 km/s). Only a few percent storms comprised only --4% of the total number of
of CMEs have speeds2-3 times greater [Gosling et al., geomagnetic stormsoccurringin the periodstudied. Large
1987]. Becausethe bodiesof CMEs typicallyhave densities storms, ---8% of the total, were also found to be primarily
comparableto ambient,the dynamicpressureassociated with causedby CMEs drivingshocks. The remaining-88% of
their passageis not unusuallylarge. However,about30% the stormswere generallynot associatedwith either CMEs
of CMEs havea flux-rope-like
magnetic
field structureor shocks.Overall,only-37% of thegeomagnetic
storms
[Goslinget al., 1990] that resultsin southwardIMFs for a in their studycould be attributedto CMEs.
considerablefraction of the time during CME passage. In efforts to understand the response of the
SinceCMEs at 1.0 AU are on average-0.25 AU in width, magnetosphere to interplanetary
conditions
regardlessof their
the southwardmagneticfields can persistfor many hours. origin, several studieshave derived relationshipsbetween
Increasesin dynamicpressureand magneticfield magnitude interplanetaryvaluesof velocity (V), density(p), the north/
associatedwith CME passagealso occur when fast CMEs southcomponemof the IMF (Bz),or combinations of those
drive interplanetaryshocks. The sheathregionbetweenthe parameters VBz,toV2, V2Bz,and(pV2)mVBz, andgeomagnetic
shock and the CME, characterizedby compressedplasma, activity indices [Siscoe, 1966; Burton et al., 1975;
possessesbothenhanced densities
andvelocities andstrongMurayama, 1982].Because theDstindexisproportional
to
magneticfields.Fieldlinedraping alsooccurs inthesheaththestrength oftheringcurrent,
andtherefore
directly
related
region[Goslinget al., 1987],resulting
in significant
out-of- to theenergytransported
intotheinnermagnetosphere,
it is
the-ecliptic
magneticfieldcomponents.
Thecombination
of themost appropriategeomagnetic
indextoexamineinorder
increased
velocityandsustained
southward
IMF,inboth
the tounderstand thecouplingbetween thesolarwindandthe
sheath
regionandtheCMEitself,combineto makeCME magnetosphere duringtheoccurrence
ofgeomagnetic
storms.
passageat 1.0 AU conduciveto dayside
mergingand Burtonetal. [1975]derivedanempirical
relationship
forthe
geomagnetic
storm production. rateof change of theDstindexin termsof thedawn-dusk
Theassociation
of high-speed
recurrent
streams
with component
ofthesolar
windelectric
field,Ey= -Vw
x Bz,
geomagnetic
activity
hasbeenknownformany
years
[e.g., andthedynamicpressure,
pV2. Theirformulation
assumes
Sheeley
etal.,1976].Using
Bartels
diagrams,
Sheeley
etal. thatDst is a function
of magnetopause
currents,
ring
[1976]foundanagreement
between
therecurrence
patternscurrents,
andtailcurrents.Thecontribution
toDstdueto
of coronal
holes,high-speed
solarwindstreams,
and themagnetopause
currents
isassumed
proportional
to(pV2)
1/2
geomagnetic
disturbances.
Thesediagrams
showa (arelationshippreviously
established
by$iscoe
etal.[1968]
and
repeatable
pattern
of enhanced
geomagnetic
activity
with Ogilvie
etal. [1968]).Theassumed
sources
ofchangeinthe
--27-day
period (approximately
equaltotheperiod
of solar strength
oftheringcurrent
aretheamount
ofinjection
(F(E)=
rotation).
In a follow-on
study,
SheeleyandHarvey[1981]d (Ey- 0.5))andtherateofdecay,
which
isproportional
tothe
examined the changein recurrentstormpatternswith solar strength
of theringcurrent.In theirformula,
dDSto/dt
= F(E)-
cycle. It wasfoundthatunlikethe speedenhancements that aDsto,whereF(E) is nonzeroonlyfor southwardsolarwind
diminishin strengthwith solarcycle (Vmax"' 600-700 km/s magneticfields(the half-waverectifierassumption)
anda is an
at solar maximumversusVma x - 700-800 km/s at solar empirically
derivedconstant
representing therateof ringcurrent
minimum),the recurrentdisturbances
maintaintheir high decay.DSto= Dst - b (pV2)1/2-[- Cis thestrength of thering
level of intensity. This finding suggests that it is not the current adjusted for the strength of the magnetopause
high-speed streams themselvesthat cause the recurrent currents. The constantsb and c, also empiricallyderived,
activity, but the combinationof velocityshearand current representthe responseto dynamicpressurechangesin the
sheetinclinationthatdeterminesthe severityof the associated solar wind and the quiet day currents,respectively. Since
streaminteractiondisturbances [e.g., Pizzo, 1991]. At solar Burtonet al. achievedexcellentagreement betweenvaluesof
minimum, the speedsare higher, but the current sheet this indexpredictedfrom interplanetary
measurements
and
 LINDSAY ET AL.' CORONAL MASS EJECT1ON AND STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS 17,001

actual values of Dst, we use their formula here for the (within 3 of the eclipticplane)andpointstowardthe Sun in
assessmentof the potential geomagneticeffectivenessof both VSO and GSM; y points oppositethe direction of
interplanetaryconditions. planetarymotion;however,in GSM, y is perpendicular to
The implicationsof previous studiesare that CMEs the dipoleaxis so that it pointsbelowand abovethe ecliptic
produce the greater enhancementsof the solar wind planeas the dipole axis rotatesaboutthe Earth'sspinaxis,
parameters necessary for major geomagnetic storm whereasin VSO, y alwayslies in the Venusorbitalplane;in
production, whereas stream interactionstypically produce both GSM and VSO, z completesthe right-handedsystem,
stormsof lesser magnitude. However, studiesspecifically but in VSO, z pointsnorthwardandis alwaysperpendicular
addressingthis paradigmby systematicallyexaminingthe to the orbital plane, whereasin GSM, z pointsin the same
signaturesof both CMEs and stream interactionsin large senseas the northernmagneticpole but is not necessarily
interplanetarydatabases have not beenconducted. The aim perpendicularto the ecliptic. In the following statistical
of the presentstudy is to determinethe relative potential study, we directly comparepropertiesin the two different
geomagneticeffectivenessof CMEs and streaminteractions coordinatesystems,assumingthatsince10 yearsof dataare
during solar cycle 21, based on their effects on the considered,the differingdirectionsof theirpolaraxesdo not
interplanetarymedium. This is done by examining the alter the basicdistributionof B values. However,for any
characteristics
of the importantsolarwind variables(V, Bz, particularstorm, the precisedirectionof the magneticfield
and p) associatedwith the passageof eachtype of structure, in GSM coordinateswill dependon the time of arrival of the
as seenin an exceptionallycompleteinterplanetarydata set field at the Earth.
from the Pioneer Venus Orbiter (PVO). Combinations of
those parametersthat are known to affect geomagnetic Observations
activity,
pV2 (dynamic
pressure)and
Ey (duskward
com-
ponent of the solar wind electric field), are examined for Figures 1 and 2 show typical examplesof a stream
eachto determinewhichphenomenon is likely to producethe interactionregion and a CME as seenin the PVO plasma
greatestmagnetospheric impact. The predictedDst resulting and magnetometerdata. The top three panels show ion
from these disturbances is also calculated. Statistics of the
temperature,density, and velocity. The next two panels
geomagneticallyimportant properties are determined and showtotal magneticfield, Bt, and the north/southmagnetic
analyzedfor CME sheath,CME, and pre-streamand post- fieldcomponent, Bz. Two of thebottomthreepanelsdisplay
streaminterfaceperiods. It is finally demonstratedthat the therelated timeseries of VB.andpV 2,whichareconsidered
Dst formula of Burton et al. [1975], appliedto data obtained the primary parametersin the productionof geomagnetic
by the PVO at 0.7 AU, quite accuratelypredicts the daily activity. To explicitly considerthe implied geomagnetic
level of the geomagneticdisturbancethat will occur at 1.0 effectivenessof this streaminteractionregion, Dst computed
AU, illustratingthe potentialfor increasingthe lead time for from the Burton et al. [1975] formula with measurementsof
predictionswith inner heliosphereinterplanetarymonitors. B.andp at 0.7 AU scaled to 1.0AU (assuming a r- andr-2
scaling,respectively)is shownin the bottompanel. Each
Data Analysis figure spansa 2-day interval.
The streaminteractionregionin Figure 1 was identified
The datausedin this studywere obtainedon the Pioneer by a sudden increase in ion temperatureand velocity
Venus Orbiter (PVO) spacecraft from 1979 to 1988, accompaniedby a decreasein ion density. The stream
approximatelythe duration of solar cycle 21. PVO was interface, defined as the thin region that separatesslow,
launchedMay 20, 1978, enteredVenus orbit on December denseplasma from fast, rarefied plasma [Goslinget al.,
4, 1978, and entered the deep Venus atmospherein late 1978], occurs where the change in velocity is steepest
1992. The spacecraft,its mission, and its instrument (January31, 1985, at 1230 UT). A solidverticalline marks
complementare describedby Colin [1980]. The primary the streaminterfaceposition. An enhancement in the total
instruments providingthe interplanetarymeasurements were magneticfield, approximately centeredon the discontinuous
the magnetometer[Russellet al., 1980] and the plasma changein plasmaproperties,is also observed.Prior to the
analyzer [Intriligator et al., 1980]. For our purpose,the interface,the north-southfield component, Bz, variesslowly
averaged 10-min-resolutionUniversity of California, Los betweensouthward(<0) and northward (>0), reachinga
Angeles, magnetometerdata and the full 9-rain-resolution maximum magnitudein the northwarddirection in the 3
plasma data as derived by the Ames Research Center hoursbefore the interface. The observedvaluesof Bz and
investigators(both archivedat the National SpaceScience velocitygive solar wind electricfields (shownin the sixth
and Data Center) were used. The coordinatesystemof the panel) ---___3mV/m for most of the time precedingthe
data is the Venus Solar Orbital system(VSO), wherein x interface. After the interface,B.rapidly varies between
lies in the orbital plane and pointstoward the Sun, z is southwardand northward. The velocity throughoutthe 24
directednorthfrom the Venusorbitalplane, andy lies in the hoursfollowingthis interfaceis ---650 km/s. The behavior
orbital plane pointing oppositethe direction of orbital of VB.after interfacepassage mimicsthat of Bz, varying
motion. The orbit of Venus is inclined ---3 from the solar between ---_ 8 mV/m for ---12 hours following interface
equatorin contrastto Earth's7.3. The relationship
between passagethen decreasinggraduallyduringthe following 12
the VSO systemand the geocentricsolar magnetospheric hours. According to theworkof Russellet al. [1974],Ey
(GSM) system is as follows: x lies in the orbital plane mustexceed2 mV/m at 1 AU (---3 mV/m scaledto 0.7 AU)
17,002 LINDSAY ET AL.' CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS

8
ionTemperature Stream
Interface currentsare not enhanced. Thus the predictedvaluesof Dst
105K) , (shownin the eighthpanel)are smallin magnitude(- 20 nT)
4 andlessthanzero. Prior to theinterface,VBbecomeslarge
o
andpositive, and dynamicpressuresuddenlyincreases.This
behavior implies that reconnectionwill cease, the ring
ion
Density
%
60 cm-3

current will decay, and the magnetopausecurrents will

30
becomelarge. Dst will correspondinglybecomepositive.
o
Velocity
, , ,, ,
After interface passage, the dynamic pressure remains
600
Ikm/s) elevated,and VB varies betweenpositiveand negative.
Althoughthe valuesof VB exceedthe thresholdmagnitude
450
of -3 mV/m, VB is never lessthanzero long enoughto
300Bt(nT) generatea substantialring current. So, while predictedDst
20
becomesnegative,it remainsat small magnitudessimilar to
10 '-'--','-'"' the value prior to the interface(-20nT).
Figure 2 shows the correspondingexample of a CME
0
driving an interplanetaryshock. The shock,markedby the
15
t[z
(nT) {AA
,,
wqAA,A
.'Lj,_, v -
dashedline, is identifiedby a discontinuous
increasein ion
temperature,density,velocity,andmagneticfield magnitude.
-15 The sheathregion, the interval betweenthe shockand the
CME boundary,is characterizedby hot, dense,compressed

8z(mV/m).x,%.
4
0
-4
-v ---
plasma. In the sheath,the magneticfield is enhancedand

-8 , 12
pV2 (nPa) IonTemperature
8

6O
o
30 Dst(nT)

Ion
Dens
cm-3
1o 3O
-lO
-30
0
-50
2 12 Ve!ity
(ks)
8OO
30 Jan 85
Time (hours)
60O

Figure 1. Typical exampleof a streaminteractionas observed 400

in the PVO data at 0.7 AU. Solid line notes time of stream Bt (nT)
60
interfacepassage. 40

20

in order to produce a geomagneticstorm. Here, the 0

behaviorof VB throughoutthe streaminteractionregion

implies that the trailing portion of the stream interaction
25

0 B
z(nT)
-25
region will be more geomagneticallyeffectiveas it exhibits
muchlarger valuesof duskwardsolarwind electricfield with
magnitudesgreater than -3 mV/m. Dynamic pressure,
shownin the seventhpanel, is -3 nPa until -5 hoursprior
25

0
Z(mV/m)
-25
to the streaminterface, when the densityincreasessuddenly.
, ,
Even as the densitybeginsto decreasetowardthe interface, pV2(nPa).
45
dynamicpressureremainsfairly constantfor the following
30
12 hours because of the increase in velocity across the
15
interface. In the trailing portion of the interface, dynamic
0
pressuredecreasesslightlywith the density,but is still higher 0
than that precedingthe interface. -100

The observed behavior of the solar wind electric field -200

.
-300 Dst(nT
).
and dynamic pressureshown in Figure 1 can be used to
0 12 0 12 0
explainthe behaviorof the predictedDst seenin the bottom
17Feb84
panel. First, during the interval precedingthe interface Time(hours)
where VB is small and negative,one would expectsome Figure 2. Typicalexampleof a CME drivingan interplanetary
reconnection to occur, with subsequent ring current shock as observed in the PVO data at 0.7 AU. Dashed line
energization. Dynamic pressureis at ambient values and marksinterplanetary
shockpassage.SolidlinesnoteCME start
relatively steady during this time, so the magnetopause and end times.
 LINDSAY ET AL.: CORONAL MASS EJECTIONAND STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS 17,003

rotates from southward to northward.The CME start time 200 casesof streaminteractionregionsand CMEs identified
(February17, 1984, 1455 UT) andend time (February18, in the PVO database. Although all stream interaction
1984, 021 UT) are notedby the solid lines. The defining regionshavebasicplasmavariations in common,including
characteristics of the CME are the below-ambient ion magneticfield, velocity, and temperature increasesand
temperature, monotonically decreasing velocity, and density decreasesacross the interface, the relative
smoothlyvaryingtotal magneticfield. The smooth,large- magnitudesof the variations,the time over which the
scalerotationin Bz, from southward to northward,further changes occur,andthe characteristics of the variationin Bz
suggeststhat this CME is a magneticcloud [Klein and between northward and southward differ from case to case.
Burlaga, 1982]. Comparedto the streaminteraction region CMEs are generallyvery individual.Althoughthe CMEs in
in Figure2, the CME andCME sheathshownhere exhibit the PVO database have been identified on the basis of a
much larger valuesof both positiveand negativeVBz than commonrequirementof low temperature, slowlyvarying
those observed either before or after stream interface magneticfield, and monotonically decreasing velocity,the
passage. Further, the amountof time at negativevalues variations observed in the behavior and magnitude of
within the CME (the durationof the most geomagnetically north/southmagneticfield and densityvary dramatically
effectiveconditions)is much longerthan in the abovecase from case to case. In order to characterize the nature of the
following stream interface passage. Across the sheath CMEs and streaminteractionregionsobservedin the PVO
region,thevelocityincreases from -800 km/sat the shock inter-planetary data,andtheirimpliedpotential geomagnetic
to -950 hn/s neartheCME leadingedge. Bz changes from effectiveness,distributionsof V, Bz, p, and various
southward,with a maximum magnitudeof -23 nT, to combinations of theseparameters havebeencalculated.
northward,with a maximummagnitude
of -25 nT. Ey Thedistributions
of V,Bz,p, VBz,
andpV2,extrapolated
exceedsthe magnitudethresholdof -3 mV/m at 0.7 AU to 1.0AU byscaling Bzbyr'l, p byr'2,andassuming V does
throughoutabout half of the sheathregion (-3 hours). not changesignificantlybetween0.7 AU and 1.0 AU, are
Within the CME, Bz changesfrom --40 nT to -40 nT shownin Figures3-7. The intervalsof datausedare the 48
through- 10hoursof theCME, maintaining values hourscenteredaboutthe time of streaminterfacepassageand
negative
for about 5 hours. Bz then decreasesgraduallyto a the 9 hoursprior to the CME leadingedgeplus the time
magnitude of -8 nT at theendof the CME. Duringthis within the entire CME. A 9-hourdurationprior to the CME
time,thevelocitydecreases from -950 hvJsto -800 hvJs. leading edge was chosenfor analysisconsistencybetween
The combination of highvelocityandlargenegative Bzgives this study and that of Goslinget al. [1991], enablinga
solarwindelectricfield valuesexceedingthethresholdsetby comparison betweenfindings. Nine hoursexceedsthe entire
Russellet al. [1974] for a sustained periodof -6 hours. CME sheathregionshownin Figure 1, but it is closeto the
Thisexampledemonstrates thatboththesheathregionand average l 1-hour sheath duration for all CMEs driving
CME havethe potentialto be particularly geomagneticallyinterplanetaryshocksidentifiedin the PVO database. The
effectivein thattheybothproduce longperiodsof duskward data set consistedof 103 streaminteractionregionsand 75
CMEs (25 driving interplanetaryshocks). The stream
Predictedvalues of Dst, calculatedas in Figure 1, are interactionregionparameterdistributionsinclude -16,000
shownfor the CME in the eighthpanel of Figure 2. This data points, and the CME parameterdistributions include
caseshowsstriking differencesfrom the streaminteraction -15,000 data points. Since this analysisconcernsthe
regioncase. Prior to the shock,wherethedynamicpressure potential geomagneticeffectivenessof either a stream
is near ambientand the magneticfield is slightly negative, interactionregion or CME on the ambient solar wind,
small, negativepredictedDst valuesare obtained. At the complexregionsthat result from a CME-streaminterface
shock,the dynamicpressureincreasessuddenly,and VBz interactionor a fast CME overtakinga slow CME are not
tendstoward larger negativevalues. At this point, it is includedhere (discussionof thesetypesof interactionsand
expectedthat the magnetopause currentswill becomelarge their geoeffectiveness can be foundin the paperby Burlaga
and have the greatestinfluenceon Dst. PredictedDst first et al. [1987]). This filter is imposedby consideringonly
becomespositive(-12 nT in this case),then in the sheath thoseeventsthat do not occurwithin the 48 hourspreceding
region, dynamic pressure decreasesslightly during an or followingthepassage of anotherstreaminterfaceor CME
intervalof negativeVBz so that Dst becomesnegative. leadingedge. About 10% of the total numberof stream
WhenVBz turnspositive,reconnection to cease, interactionregionsand CMEs in the PVO databasewere
is expected
andDst becomespositivealso. During the first -6 hours excludedby this criterion.
of theCME, VBz is very largeandnegative,anddynamic The distributionof solar wind velocity associatedwith
pressuredecreases. With sustainednegative VBz and stream interaction regions and coronal mass ejections
subsequent reconnection,the ring current is substantially observed at 0.7 AU is plottedin Figure 3. This plot shows
energized,andDst shouldbecomevery large andnegative. the percentoccurrence,on a linear scale,versusvelocity.
Since the time it takes the ring current to decay is For comparison purposes,the distributionof all solarwind
proportional to its strength,evenafterVBzbecomes largeand data at 1.0 AU (given by Goslinget al. [1991]) is also
positivein thetrailingportionof theCME, thepredicted Dst shown. It is immediately obviousthat the bulk of the
takesnearly36 hoursto recoverto quiettime values. distributions from the CMEs (thick line) and the stream
Of course,the examplesshownin Figures1 and 2 do interactionregions(thin line) are similar. The CMEs have
not representin detailall variationsexhibitedin the nearly a medianvelocityof -364 km/s, andthe streaminteraction
17,004 LINDSAY ET AL.' CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS

CME and Stream Interaction Region the solar wind. Moreover, the bodies of CMEs typically
Velocity Distributions have densitiessimilar to the densityof the surroundingsolar
100.00%
wind. The enhanced densities in the CME density
I CME distribution result from a combination of the few fast CMEs
I (.med=364km/s)
[ treamInteraction [-] compressingthe ambientmedium aheadand the few CMEs
[ (med=347 km/s) 14 which are themselvesdenserthan average.
"'x' I ........ Goslinget.al.(1991) I/
10.00% From Figures 1 and 2, it is clear that the characteristics
of V, p, and B,.changethroughout
the passageof a stream
interactionregion or a CME. The degreeto which the solar
wind associated with these phenomena becomes
1.00% geomagneticallyeffective dependson the combinationof
theseparametersand their duration. To determinewhich
portion of the interplanetarydisturbanceassociatedwith a
CME or stream interactionregion is most geomagnetically
0.10%
200 400 600 800 1000
effective,the distributions
of VB,. and pV2 havebeen
separatelycomputedfor the 24 hours preceding(pre-stream
Velocity (km/s) interface) and following (post-stream interface) stream
interface passage, and the 9 hours preceding the CME
Figure 3. Comparisonof the velocity distributionsof solar
leadingedge(pre-CME) andthe time within the CME (post-
wind at 1.0 AU (dashedline), CME at 0.7 AU (thick solid
CME). Pre-CME is used here instead of sheath region
line), and stream interaction at 0.7 AU (thin solid line).
becauseboth CMEs driving interplanetaryshocksand those
Velocity is in 50-km/s bins.
not driving interplanetaryshockswere considered. These
resultsare shownin Figures 6 and 7.
regions have a median velocity of -347 km/s. The The distribution of the fundamental parameter in
differences in the two distributionsarise in their high- determining whetheror notreconnection will occur,[ VB,.I ,
velocity tails. The stream interaction region velocities is plottedin Figure 6. Here, the percentoccurrence(plotted
extend to -800 km/s, but the CME distribution exhibits a ona logscale)versusI VB,.I is shownwithB,.scaled
to 1.0
high-speedtail to velocitiesin excessof -1000 km/s. The AU. The top panel displaysthe CME distributions; the
solarwind distributionhas a medianvelocityof -355 km/s, bottom panel contains the stream interaction region
roughly equivalent to that of both the CMEs and stream distributions Solid lines representthe pre-CME or pre-
interaction regions. The solar wind distribution ends at streaminterfacevalues, and dashedlines representthe post-
velocities -100 km/s higher than the stream interaction CME or post-streaminterface values. In both panels, the
region distribution and -200 km/s less than the CME dashedline with the crosssymbolsrepresentsthe distribution
distribution.

The distribution of B. magnitudes observed in

CME and Stream Interaction Region
associationwith the passageof CMEs and streaminteraction Bz Distributions
regionsat 0.7 AU, scaledto 1.0 AU, is shownin Figure 4, (scaled to AU)
plotted in the samemanneras Figure 3. The distributionof 100.00%
' ' ' ' ' ' ' 'CME'
B,.for all solarwind dataat 1.0 AU is alsoshown. As is (meal=-0.50)

expected,the mediansof all threeare -0 nT, indicatingthat Stream Interaction

the field is as often northward (positive) as southward - .--........(Grsledn=':t2.)a

99
i)
(negative). The stream interactionregion distributionand
- .

the solar wind distributionhave a similar range, +- 24 nT. 0.00%

However, the CME distributionshowsa large high-field tail
for bothpositiveand negativeB,.. Both CMEs and stream
interaction
regionshavemedianI Bz I of -2.5 nT, whereas
thesolarwindhasa medianlB,. I of -1.0 nT. 1.00%
Figure 5 shows the related distributionof density.
Percentoccurrenceis plottedon a linearscaleversusdensity.
This plot shows that both stream interactionregions and
CMEs have characteristicallyhigherdemitiesassociatedwith
their passagethan does the ambientsolar wind. Further, 0.10%
-24 -16 -8 0 8 16 24
streaminteraction
regions(mediandensity= 8.2 cm-3)tend
to have higher associateddensitiesthan CMEs (median Bz (nT)
density = 7.3 cm-3). This observationis a natural Figure 4. Comparisonof total magneticfield distributions of
consequenceof the fact that the solar wind is always solarwind at 1.0 AU (dashedline), CME at 0.7 AU (thicksolid
compressedin a stream interactionregion. On the other line), and streaminteractionat 0.7 AU (thin solidline). CME
hand, the average CME travels near the solar wind speed and stream interaction fields scaled from 0.17 AU to 1.0 AU.
and thususuallydoesnot producesignificantcompression in Magneticfield is in 2-nT bins.
 LINDSAY ET AL.' CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS 17,005

CME and Stream Interaction Region geomagneticstorm production, although neither is very
Density Distributions likely to causemajor geomagneticstorms.
(scaledto 1 AU) Figure 7 showsdistributionsof dynamicpressurein the
100.00% ,
i i l sameformat as Figure 6. Percentoccurrenceis plottedon
{med=7 27 cm )
a log scaleversusdynamicpressurein nanopascals.In the
Stream Interaction
(reed=8 20 cm )
toppanelthe pre-CME andpost-CMEcasesare very similar
/-- x ..... SolarWind and demonstratethat equal magnitudedynamicpressuresare
likely to occurin both the pre-CME andpost-CME regions.
10.00%
/ (reed=5.90
cm
! In contrast, in the bottom panel the pre-streaminterface
curve has a medianof 6.5 nPa and extendsbeyondthe cutoff
of 20 nPa, whereasthe post-streaminterface curve has a
range of 1 - 20 nPa and a median of 5.2 nPa. This
1.00% demonstrates that higher dynamicpressuresare more likely
to occur in the pre-streaminterfaceregion. Althoughthe
velocity in the post-streaminterfaceregion is a factor of 2
greater than that in the pre-streaminterface region, the
densityin the post-streaminterfaceregionis nearly an order
0.10% ' ' ' '
0 10 20 30 40 50

Density cm-3
IVBzl Distributions
Figure 5. Comparisonof the distributionof the ion density (Bz scaled to 1.0AU)
associatedwith solar wind at 1.0 AU (dashedline), CMEs at 100.00% I I

0.7 AU (thick solid line), and streaminteractionsat 0.7 AU 1.. Dst< -100nT
(thin solid line). Fields scaled from 0.7 AU to 1.0 AU. Pre-CME
Densityis in 5-cm-3bins. (med=0.58 mV/m)
........ Post-CME
(med=0.85 mV/m)
10.00%
---q--- Quiet Solar Wind
(med=0.47mV/m)
of the ambient solar wind data exclusive of the times
associatedwith stream interactionregions or CMEs. It is
notablethatthe pre-CME andpost-CMEdistributions appear
very similar. However,the pre-CME I VBI medianis 1.00%

-0.58 mV/m, and the post-CME medianis -0.85 mV/m,

-51% larger than the pre-CME median. Consideringthe
criterion that I VB,.I > 2 mV/m in order for a
geomagneticstorm to occur, this figure indicates that
0.10%
approximately29 % of the pre-CME distributionand24 % of
00.00%
the post-CME distributionwill producegeomagneticstorms.

i ! i
About 10% of both distributionsare likely to producemajor Pre-Stream Interface
(med=0.36 mV/m)
geomagneticstorms,accordingto the criterionof Tsurutani ...... Post-Stream Interface
(med=0.56 mV/m)
et al. [1990],whofoundthat[ VB,.I valuesgreaterthan-5
mV/m are necessaryfor Dt < -100 nT. There is a greater
differencebetweenthe distributionsof pre-streaminterface


o 10.00% k --Quiet
Solar
Wind
(med=0.47mV/m)

and post-streaminterfaceperiods, especiallybetween2 and

7 mV/m. The pre-streaminterfacemedianis -0.36 mV/m.
The post-streaminterfacemedianis -0.56 mV/m, - 56%
largerthanthe pre-streaminterfacemedian. Only - 13% of 1.00%
thepre-streaminterfacevaluesand - 19% of thepost-stream
interfacevaluesexceed-2 mV/m. Likewise,only -1.5 % I _ "' Pre- 11.5%
%>-5mV/m
Post-CME= 13.4%
of the pre-streaminterfacevaluesand -3.5 % of the post- Pre-SI = 1.88%
-, Post-SI = 4.98%
streaminterfacevaluesare greater than -5 mV/m. Figure
0.10%
6 showsthat both pre-CME regionsand post-CME regions
0 5 10 15
have characteristicsmore conduciveto geomagneticstorms
than either pre-stream interface or post-streaminterface IYBzl (mV/m)
regions,especiallyfor major storms. Further,conditionsin Figure 6. Comparisonof the distributionof the duskward
the pre-CME regions seem slightly more favorablethan electricfield magnitudeproducedprior to andafter (top) CME
conditionsin the post-CME regions,but both regionsare and (bottom)streaminteractionpassageat 0.7 AU. Solarwind
equallylikely to producemajorgeomagnetic storms. On the distributionat 0.7 AU (dashedline with crosssymbol)included
otherhand, the post-streaminterfaceregionappearsslightly for comparison. Fields scaledfrom 0.7 AU to 1.0 AU.
more favorable than the pre-streaminterface region for Electric field is in 0.5-mV/m bins.
17,006 LINDSAY ET AL.' CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS

Dynamic Pressure Distributions magnitudeof VBz at each data point multipliedby the
durationof the time sincethe previousdatapoint. The latter
lOO.OO%
intervalis usually10 min, and the assumption is that VBz
Pre-CME
doesnot vary significantlyduringthistime. Only southward
(med= 4.16 nPa)
..... Post-CME intervalsof Bz are usedfor thiscalculation.The top panel
ed = 4.91 nPa)
lO.OO%
shows that the influence of the pre-CME and post-CME
regions are nearly the same (with mediansof 68 and 69
Wb/m, respectively). The stream interaction region-
associateddistributionsare quite different and show two
1.oo% distinct
peaks. The pre-stream
interface
distribution
is
narrow and has a median of ---41 Wb/m; the post-stream
interface distribution is broader and has a median of ---59
Wb/m. Themajorstormcriterionof I VBzI > 5 mV/mfor
0.10% I I I ,
at least3 hours [Tsurutaniet al., 1992] impliesan integrated
5 10 15 20
minimum value of 54 Wb/m. Approximately56% of both
lOO.OO%
thepre-CME andpost-CME distributionsmeetor exceedthis
Pre-Stream Interface
(med = 6.48 nPa) level, which is expected,giventhat similarlylarge, sustained
Post-Stream Interface
(med = 5.21 nPa)
Bzandhigh velocitycan occurin bothregions. About50%
lO.OO%

Distributionof IVBz dt
(Bz scaled to 1 AU)
40.00% i i i i
1.00%

30.00%
.....
Pre-CME
[
(med=68.2 Wb/rn)
Post-CME
(med=69.2
Wb/m)I
0.10% t
0 5 10 15 20

Dynamic Pressure (nPa) 20.00%

Figure 7. Comparisonof the distributionof the dynamic

pressureproducedprior to and after (top) CME and (bottom)
streaminteractionpassageat 0.7 AU. Solar wind distribution 10.00%
at 0.7 AU (dashed line with cross symbol) included for
comparison. Fields scaledfrom 0.7 AU to 1.0 AU. Dynamic
pressureis in 2-nPa bins.
0.00%
40.00% ....

Pre-Stream Interface
of magnitude less than that in the pre-stream interface (med=46.4Wb/m)
Post-Stream Interface
region. Thus dynamicpressurewill generallybe larger in (med=58.8
Wb/m)
the pre-streaminterfaceregion than the post-streaminterface
30.00%
region. The mediandynamicpressurefor both the pre- and
post-streaminterfaceregionsis higher thanthoseof the pre-
and post-CME regions. Increasesin the horizontal com- 20.00%
ponent of the Earth's magneticfield (H) are related to the
squareroot of the solar wind dynamic pressure[Siscoeet
al., 1968]. The observationsshownin Figure 7 imply that 10.00%
the largestincreasesin H will resultfrom CME passage,but
more generally, an increasein H will result from stream
interactionregionpassage. Further, the largestincreasesin
0.00% '
H are likely to result from the passageof the pre-stream 0 50 1O0 150 200 250
interfaceportion of the interactionregion.
IVBz dt (Wb/m)
AlthoughBz < 0 is the key progenitorof geomagnetic
storms,as mentionedabove, the larger magneticstormsare Figure 8. Comparisonof the distributionof the time-integrated
associatedwith sustainedgeoeffective conditions. The value of duskwardelectricfield magnitude,in 25-Wb/m bins,
characteristictemporalvariationsof VBz associated with producedprior to and after (top) CME and (bottom) stream
either streaminteractionregion or CME passagedetermine interactionpassageat 0.7 AU. Solar wind distributionat 0.7
the time-integrateddistributions
of VBz displayedin Figure AU (dashedline with crosssymbol)includedfor comparison.
8. The time-integratedvaluesare computedby summingthe Fields scaled from 0.7 AU to 1.0 AU.
 LINDSAY ET AL.' CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS 17,007

of the post-streaminterfacedistributionmeetsor exceedsthis shownin the bottompanel, are notablydifferent from the
criterion, whereasonly ---30% of the pre-streaminterface CME distribution. The pre-streaminterfacedistributionhas
distribution meets or exceeds this level. It has been shown a range of --100 nT to -60 nT and a peak in the
that rapidlyvaryingEy is not as well rectifiedby the distributionat -0 nT. The post-streaminterfacedistribution
magnetosphere assteady Ey[Burtonet al., 1975]. SinceEy has a range of --100 nT to 40 nT and peaks at --15 nT.
is relativelysteadyin the pre- andpost-CME regionandthe Althoughthe two distributionshave similar ranges,the offset
pre-stream interface region comparedto the post-stream of the peaksis seenin the medians: --2.8 nT for the pre-
interface region intervals, the percentageof post-stream stream interface distributionand ----14.6 nT for the post-
interfaceregionsactuallyproducingmajor stormsis likely to stream interface distribution. The distributions shown in
be less than the 50% indicated here. Figure 9 suggestthat both the post-CME and post-stream
Figure 9 shows the distributions of predicted Dst, interface regions will produce larger geomagneticstorms
calculated from the formula of Burton et al. [1975] for the than the correspondingpre-CME and pre-streaminterface
CME and stream interactionregion data scaledto 1.0 AU. regions. Accordingto the most likely Dst values, the order
Percent occurrenceis plotted on a log scale versusDst in of decreasinggeoeffectivenessis post-CME, post-stream
nanoteslas.In the top panel, it is seenthat the pre- andpost- interface, pre-CME, and pre-streaminterface. This figure
CME distributionspeak at --10 nT. For Dst valuesgreater also indicatesthat -3% and -7% of the pre- and post-
than zero, both distributionsare similar, endingat ---50 nT. CME intervals and -0.5% and -2% of the pre- andpost-
For Dst values less than zero, the distributionsare quite stream interface regions, producedthe most major storms
different. The post-CME distribution shows a greater with D,t < - 100 nT duringthe periodunderstudy.
likelihood of large negative values and, in fact, extendsto In general, the statisticaldistributionsshow that both
--400 nT. The pre-CME distributionends at --200 nT. CMEs and stream interaction regions produce solar wind
These differences are reflected in the medians: ----6.1 nT for
conditionsthat are more conduciveto geomagneticstorms
the pre-CME distributionand --21.6 nT for the post-CME than the normal solar wind. The greatestdifferencein solar
distribution.The pre- and post-streaminterfacedistributions, wind conditionsis found in the density characteristicsof
CMEs and stream interactionregions, both of which have
Predicted Dst Distributions higher medianvaluesthan the normal solar wind. However,
100.00%
higher densityin the absenceof southwardBz acts only to
Pre-CME
(med=-6.12 nT) increase the solar wind dynamic pressure and thus the
strengthof the magnetopause currents. Higher densityalone
10.00%
does not produce a geomagneticstorm, so it does not
distinguishthe geomagneticeffectivenessof CMEs and
1.00% stream interaction regions from that of the average solar
wind. Rather, it is the portions of the distributionsthat
additionallyexhibit higher field and velocity enhancements
0.10%
which determine the geomagnetic potential of each
phenomenon. The highestmagnitudesin Bz and V are
associated with CME passage.Althoughthe total percentage
0.01% I I I I , I I I I , I I I I , I I I I I , I I I I I I I I

-200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 of CMEs observedexhibitingextremeV, Bz, andp valuesis
100.00% small, ---5%, this is approximatelythe percentageof CMEs
Pre-Stream Interface (-4%) found by Gosling et al. [1991] to producemajor
(med=-2.78
nT) geomagneticstorms. Thus the observationat 0.7 AU that
..... Post-Stream
Interface/
10.00% (med:-
-5 % of CMEs have markedlydifferentcharacteristics
than
the normal solar wind or stream interaction regions is
consistent with the 1-AU results.
! .00%
The question of where in the disturbed regions
conditionslikely to producegeomagneticstorms exist is
0.10% addressed in Figures6 through8. Thesefiguresshowthat
the post-stream interfaceregionis more likely thanthe pre-
streaminterfaceregionto producegeomagneticstorms. In
0.01%
-200 -150

-100
i i ,

-50 0
,

50
, ,

100
,
general,the maximumproductof VBzoccursjust after the
, , , , , , , i i [ i i i ! i i i i

interface in the post-streaminterface region, before the

Dst (nT) maximumvelocityis reached,in agreementwith the earlier
study by Sawyer and Haurwitz, [1976], who found that
Figure 9. Comparisonof the distributionof predictedDst stream interaction regions produced the maximum geo-
valuesproducedprior to and after (top) CME and (bottom) magneticdisturbancesprior to the onset of the highest
streaminteractionpassageat 0.7 AU. Solar wind distribution velocities. Similarly, Figures 6-8 suggestthat statistically,
at 0.7 AU (dashedline with cross symbol) included for the pre-CME and post-CME regionsobservedat 0.7 AU
comparison.Fieldsscaledfrom 0.7 AU to 1.0 AU. Dst is in both have the same effect on the solar wind. This is similar
10-nT bins. to the observationsat 1.0 AU indicatingthat conditionsof
17,008 LINDSAY ET AL.: CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS

high geomagneticeffectiveness exist in both the pre-CME the Dst index indicatesthe pre- and post-CME regionsare
and post-CME regions[Tsurutaniet al., 1990; Goslinget not equallygeomagnetically effective. This is contraryto
al., 1990]. observationsat 1.0 AU baseduponVBzbehaviorindicating
of thedurationof VBz, asshownin Figure thatconditionswith equalgeomagneticpotentialexistin both
Consideration
8, elucidates
howthevelocityandBzcharacteristics of CMEs the pre-CME andpost-CME regions[Tsurutaniet al., 1990;
and stream interaction regions together determine geo- Gosling et al., 1990]. This difference most likely results
magneticeffectiveness. That the pre-CME and post-CME from the fact that both studies based their conclusion on the
regions are nearly the same in this parameter shows that interplanetarydata during some of the largestgeomagnetic
while the pre-CME regionmay havea varyingsignof B, storms. The largeststormsare evidentlyassociated with fast
and therefore shorter durationsof negative VB, the CMEs driving interplanetaryshocks and the existence of
plasmaof the sheath largeVBz in boththe sheathregionandtheCME. Thisstudy
magnitudesof B in the compressed
region are large. On the other hand, the post-CME region examines the characteristicsof CMEs without regard to
(the CME itself) may not contain particularly large field disturbancesize, and showsthat in general, not only is the
magnitudes, but B.variesoverlongtime scales.Thuslarge pre-CME regionlessgeomagnetically effectivethanthepost-
time-integratedvalues of VBz are found in both regions CME region, but it is also statisticallylessgeomagnetically
associatedwith a CME, suggesting that eachregionis highly effective than the post-stream interface region. The
geomagneticallyeffective for all storm levels. In contrast, magnitudeof Bzin the CME is generallylargerthanthatof
althoughBz mayremaineitherpositiveor negativefor a long the surroundingsolar wind [Gosling et al., 1990]. The
time in the slow flow ahead of a stream interface, the values magnitude
of Bin theCME sheathincreases
withincreasing
of bothBzand VBin theregionof slowflow are very small. CME velocity due to compressionand draping. Thus the
In the fastflow behindtheinterface,thesignof Bvaries,so conclusioncan be made that as the CME velocity increases,
thatthe durationof B < 0 is not large. But the magnitudes the geoeffectivepotentialof the pre- and post-CME regions
of V and B are much larger than thosein the slow flow becomes more similar.
ahead of the stream interface. For this reason, the time- Akasofu [1964] noted that storm commencementscan
integratedvalues of VBz are smaller for the pre-stream occurwithouta subsequentmain phase,andthat mainphases
interfaceregion than the post-streaminterfaceregion. The may occur without a preceding commencementphase.
fact that the pre-streaminterfaceregion has small sustained Examinationof the dynamic pressure(Figure 7) and solar
valuesof VBwhilethepost-stream interfaceregionhaslarge wind electric field characteristics(Figure 6) associatedwith
but short-livedvaluesof VBis what tendsto makestream streaminteractionregion and CME passagemay provide an
interactionregionsgenerally less geomagneticallyeffective explanationof theseobservations.Streaminteractionregions
than CMEs. Nevertheless,as notedabove,they cancompete generally produce larger dynamic pressures, but CMEs
in the moderatestorm categories. generally produce larger, more sustainedelectric fields.
Becauseof the combinationof their associateddynamic Thus as a stream interactionregion passes,an initial phase
pressure (Figure 7), VB (Figure 6), and duration can occurdue to the increasein dynamicpressureassociated
characteristics(Figure 8), stream interactionregionshave with the compressionin the interactionregion, but no main
limited geomagneticeffectiveness(Figure 9). During phaseoccursbecausethe fluctuatingsign of B precludes
passage of the pre-stream interface region, enhanced efficient energy transferto the magnetosphere.Likewise, a
magnetopausecurrents, producedby enhancedsolar wind main phasewith no precedinginitial phaseis possibleowing
dynamic pressures,and minimal reconnectionoccur. Thus to CME passage. As the CME passes1.0 AU, dynamic
during pre-stream interface region passage, Dst should pressureis not likely to vary much from ambient; thus no
generallyincrease,oftenbecomingpositive. Duringpassage initial phaseis produced. However, large, sustainedsouth-
of the post-stream interface region, the magnetopause ward magnetic fields are probable, producing sustained
currents decrease, reconnection increases, and Dst decreases. reconnectionand efficient energy transfer from the solar
However, in order to producea Dst < 0 and a geomagnetic wind to the magnetosphere. The ring current will be
storm, there must exist enoughreconnection to sufficiently energized,and a recognizablemain phasewill occur.
energizethe ring currentto overcomethe preexistinglarge As shownby Lindsayet al. [1994], the occurrencerates
magnetopause currents. Becauselarge time-integratedvalues and strengthsof the CMEs and streaminteractionregions
of VBdo not oftenexistin the post-stream interfaceregion, observedby the PVO exlfibit a solar cycle variation. The
the amountof ring currentenergizationis small, andDst will effect of this variation on geoeffectiveness was studiedby
most likely not becomelarge and negative. This is seenin examining the distribution of the previously considered
Figure 9, where the percentageof the post-streaminterface parametersduringsolarmaximum(1979-1981), thedeclining
region distributionthat exhibitspredictedDst < -100 nT is phase(1982-1984), and solar minimum (1984-1987). In all
---2 % comparedto the value of - 5 Toimplied in Figure 6. three periods, this analysisgave nearly the sameresultsas
However, consideringthat -1.5 To of the major and large are shownin Figures 3-7. During all three phasesof the
stormsfoundby Goslinget al. [1991] couldnot be explained solar cycle, CMEs exlfibit the largest median values and
in terms of CMEs, streaminteractionregionsmay provide highest-valuedistributiontails in all parameters. Also, the
the residual. relative potentialgeomagneticeffectivenessof the pre- and
The effect of the combination of CME-associated post-stream interface regions and pre- and post-CME
dynamicpressure,VBz, anddurationcharacteristics givenby regions, as shown in Figures 8 and 9, was preserved
 LINDSAY ET AL.: CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS 17,009

throughoutthe solar cycle. That is, the pre- and post-CME interactionregion will then be observedat Earth at a time
region distributionsare very similar and are much more determined by the angular separationbetween Earth and
geomagnetically effectivethan the ambientsolarwind. The Venus and the corotationalspeed and archimedeanspiral
stream interactionregion distributionsshow that the post- angleof the interactionregion. As PVO travelsfrom eastto
stream interface region is more geomagneticallyeffective west of the Earth-Sun line, the time between observations at
than the pre-streaminterfaceregionand that the pre-stream 0.7 AU and 1.0 AU will decrease. When PVO is -18"
interface region effects are comparable to those of the westof the Earth-Sunline, the streaminteractionregionmay
ambient solar wind. Although the occurrencerates and be detectednearly simultaneouslyat 0.7 AU and 1.0 AU.
strengthsof CMEs and stream interactionregions change Since the comparisonsshownin Figures 10, 11, and 12 are
throughout the solar cycle, their relative potential for time periods when PVO is within 10 of the Earth-Sun
geomagneticeffectivenessdoesnot. This result for stream line, it is not expectedthat a simultaneous0.7 AU/1.0 AU
interaction regions is consistent with the previously stream interactionregion observationwill be found.
mentionedobservationsof Sheeleyand Harvey [1981], that Figure 10 showspredictedversusobservedDst values
the intensityof stream-relatedrecurrentdisturbancesdid not for June 1-30, 1980. During this time, the Venus orbital
show a solar cycle variation. and ecliptic planes were practically coincident. The
agreementin the variation and magnitudeof predictedand
Potential for Long-Lead Time Dst Predictions observed Dst is quite good. The major difference in
magnitudeoccursduring the period when Dst < 0 on June
It is instructiveto considerthe possibilityof forecasting 5-10, 1980. PVO predictsa maximumnegativeDst of --30
observed values of Dst at 1.0 AU from observations in the nT while a maximum negativeDst of -45 nT is observed.
solar wind at 0.7 AU. Figures 10, 11, and 12 show the During this time, two streaminteractionregions(on June 5
comparisonof predicted and observedDst for three time and 20, 1988) and two CMEs (on June 10 and 26, 1980) are
periodsduring 1979-1988 when the PVO spacecrafttravels observedat 0.7 AU. Both stream interactionregions are
from -10 eastward to -10 westward of the Earth-Sun associatedwith predicted increasesof Dst to near zero.
line. In eachfigure, the thin line showsDst valuespredicted However, the first stream interaction region produces a
from 0.7 AU observationsusing the Burton et al. [1975] significantdecreasein Dst whereasonly a slightdecreasein
formula. The thick line representsthe observedvalues of Dst occurs after passageof the secondstream interaction
Dst obtained from midlatitude ground stationsat 1.0 AU. region. This behavior is predictedas well as observed. In
The pertinentparametersfor this calculation,solar wind both cases, the maximum magnitude of positive Dst is
electricfield (mV/m) and dynamicpressure(nPa), are shown underpredicted. The first streaminteractionregion appears
in the bottom two panels of Figures 10, 11, and 12. As to have been more conduciveto reconnection(indicatedby
before, it is assumedthat solar wind velocity doesnot vary Dst < 0) due to more southwardBz. The secondstream
appreciablybetween0.7 AU and 1.0 AU and that the values interaction region is more conducive to magnetospheric
of p andB.varyasr-2andr-, respectively. Forcomparison compressionas suggestedby the substantialperiod of Dst
purposes,1-hour averagesof the PVO predictionswere >0 resulting from its higher dynamic pressures. Both
computed,thena 48-hourrunningaveragewascalculatedfor CMEs are associated with predictedandobservedperiodsof
both data sets. Smoothingover 12, 24, 36, and 48 hours large, negativeDst. The CME observedduring the first
was tested. The 48-hour average result is shown here periodhas a peak velocityof --600km/s and southward Bz
becauseit producedthe best comparisonbetweenpredicted of --20 nT. The secondCME has a peak velocity of --400
and observedDst. Smoothingat less than 48 hours leaves km/s andsouthward B. of -15 nT. The longerdurationof
many smallvariationswhichdo not clearlyprojectfrom 0.7 negative Dst following the first CME probably occurred
AU to 1.0 AU. With this treatment, only the longer time because B.wassouthward for a longerperiodduringthefirst
scalevariationsin Dst are beingcompared,eliminatingdaily CME than the second CME.
variationsin Dst due to the changein the Earth's dipoleaxis An examinationof Figure 10 indicatesthat the time lag
with respectto the eclipticplane. betweenthe predictedand observedDst curvesvariesduring
No time lag representingthe transittime from 0.7 AU the 30-dayperiod. For example,the increasein Dst between
to 1.0 AU has been appliedto the 0.7-AU data shownhere. June 1 and 2, 1980, is observed at 1 AU - 50 hours later
As will be shown, this time varies in an expectedmanner than at PVO, and the decreasein Dst occurringbetweenJune
according to the prevailing speed of the solar wind or 7 and 9, 1980, is observed at 1 AU -36 hours later.
disturbance features. When Venus and Earth are in near Likewise, the increasein Dst predictedfrom PVO data on
alignment,the time delay betweenobservationsof a CME at June 14-17, 1980, is observed at 1 AU --58 hours later.
the two locationsis just that determinedby the velocity of The decreasepredictedbetweenJune 23 and 24, 1980, is
the CME, which is presumedto travel radially outward. observed at 1 AU -40 hours later. This indicates that the
Stream interaction regions are corotational solar wind stream interaction region characteristicsthat producedthe
features,so that the time delay betweenobservationsat 0.7 observedincreasesin Dst were traveling at -250 km/s and
AU and 1.0 AU will dependupon the east/westangle of -215 km/s. The inferred velocities are less than those
separationbetween Venus and Earth. When Venus is observed,but the relative difference in timing and inferred
eastwardto just westward of the Earth-Sunline, PVO will velocity is consistentwith the fact that the velocity of the
observe the stream interaction region first. The stream low-speedportion of the first streaminteractionregion is
17,010 LINDSAYET AL.' CORONAL
MASSEJECTION
ANDSTREAM
INTERACTION
EFFECTS

20

10
Dst
o
(nT)
-10

-20

-30

-40

(n/m)
15
10
Pd 5
(nee) 0 ,
153 158 163 168 173 178 183
80 Jun01 Jun06 Jun 11 Jun16 Jun21 Jun26 Jul01
(tic = 1 day)
Stream Interface
--- CME
---C> Shockv/C ME

Figure 10. (Top) comparison of predicted

Dst fromPVO data(thinline) andobserved Dst from
midlatitude
groundstations
(thickline)duringJune1980. (Middle)Solarwindelectricfield. (Bottom)
Dynamicpressure.

higherthan that of the secondstreaminteraction region km/s) was moving faster than the secondCME (-360
(-325 km/sversus---300km/s). The timesassociated with km/s), the inferredspeedsare a factorof 2 slowerthanthe
the CME conditions producingthe predictedandobserved observedspeeds.
decreasesin Dst indicatethat the solar wind was travelingat Excellent agreementbetween Dst predictionsand
-350 km/s and -310 Although the relative observations
km/s. duringJanuary1982 is shownin Figure 11.
magnitudesof the inferred speedsare consistentwith Both the variationsand magnitudesfor Dst < 0 are well
observations,
thatis, theyindicatethatthefirstCME (-620 comparable.In thiscase,radialalignment
occursonJanuary

20

10

Dst
0
(nT)
-10

-20

-30

-40

(n/m) o
3, 3..?
4

15
10
Pd 5
(nee) 0
001 006 011 016 021 026 031
82 Jan 01 Jan06 Jan 11 Jan 16 Jan21 Jan26 Jan 31
(tie = 1 day)
e Stream Interface
--- CME
ShockME

Figure 11. (Top) Comparison of predicted

Dst tomPVO data(thinline) andobserved Dst from
midlatitude
ground
stations
(thickline)during
January1982.(Middle)Solarwindelectric
field. (Bottom)
Dynamicpressure.
 LINDSAY ET AL.' CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS 17,011

20, 1982, and Venus and Earth are never separatedby more
than 1 in the north-southdirection. Examinationby eye
showsthat the apparenttime delay changesthroughoutthe
month: -8 hours for January1-7, -45 hours for January
8-20, and -24 hoursfor January21-30. This trend in time
delays is not consistentwith the relative solar wind speeds
observedduringthis time. The fastestsolarwind speedsare
observedduring January 21-31, when the secondlongest
time delay of 24 hours is inferred. However, the very fast
inferred solar wind speeds of January 1-6 (1500 km/s)
occurred during a time period of only slightly enhanced
observedsolar wind speeds(500 km/s). The apparenttime
delays during the rest of the month imply slower transit
speedsthan what is inferred from observation:275 km/s
implied, 375 km/s observedfor January7-20; 520 km/s
implied, 550 km/s observedfor January21-31. Notably, the
difference between the implied and observed speeds
decreasesas the alignment between Earth and Venus
becomes more radial. There also seems to be a shift in time
delay from -45 hours to --24 hours surroundingthe time
of nearly radial alignment. This trend is consistentwith the
observedvelocity shift in this time period from 400 km/s to
550 km/s. The interplanetarydisturbances observedduring
this interval are the CMEs on January27 and 30. The CME
on January27, 1982, producesa smallincreasefollowedby
a decreasein predictedand observedDst, whereasthe CME
on January30, 1982, producesa more dramaticdecreasein
predictedand observedDst to values less than --50 nT.
This differenceprobablyoccursbecausethe secondCME has
much larger velocities(-600 km/s versus -500 kin/s) and
larger,moresustainedsouthward Bz. an increasein magnetopausecurrentsand absenceof ring
Figure 12 showspredictedDst and observedDst during current energization, leading to predictionsof Dst > O.
March 16 throughApril 15, 1985. This casehasthe largest Since observationsat 1 AU show that more negative Dst
north/southseparationas Venus moves from -4 north to
-1 north of the Earth's ecliptic plane during this period.
Near radial alignment occurs around April 2, 1985.
Although the observedlevels of activity are well predicted,
predictionsvarying between -+ 10 nT and observations
varying from -2 nT to --20 nT, the day-to-dayvariations
are not as well predictedas in the previouscases. Here the
solar wind is fairly steady,and most fluctuationsare small.
The one exceptionoccursbetween March 30 and April 7
near radial alignment. During thisperiod, a fast/slowstream
interactionregion is observedat 0.7 AU. Like the second
streaminteractionregionshownin Figure 10, passageof this
streaminteractionregionis characterizedby an increaseof
predictedDst to positivevaluesfollowedby a slightdecrease
in predicted Dst to values less than zero. Across the
interface,the velocity increasesfrom ---350 km/s to -700
km/s. For the 3 daysprecedingand followingthe interface
the velocity is steady at these values. The high-speed
portion of the stream interactionregion is accompaniedby
somesouthwardB and velocitiesof -750 km/s, so that
valuesof Dst < 0 are predictedas well as observed.
The case shown in Figure 12 is also unlike that in
Figures 10 and 11 in that the PVO overpredictsvalues of
observedDst. However, predictionsof Dst -- 0 for most of
the time interval seemreasonablewhen the prevailingsolar
wind characteristics are examined.The distinguishingfeature
in this caseis that the densityat 0.7 AU is, on average,very
high throughoutthis period (-35/cm 3) as opposedto the
overall databaseaverage of -23/cm 3. This density
enhancement and lack of significantsouthwardBrepresent

2O

10
Dst
0
(nT)
-10

-20

-30

-40

(n/m)
4 0

Pd 10
(nP) -
075 080 085 090 095 100 lOS
85 Mar 16 Mar 21 Mar 26 Mar 31 Apr 05 Apr 10 Apr 15
(tic = l day)
Stream Interface
CME
--t> Shockw/CME

Figure 12. (Top) Comparisonof predictedDst from PVO data (thin line) and observedDst from
midlatitudegroundstations(thick line) duringMarch 15 throughApril 15, 1985. (Middle) Solarwind
electric field. (Bottom)Dynamic pressure.
17,012 LINDSAY ET AL.: CORONAL MASS EJECTION AND STREAM INTERACTION EFFECTS

occurs,it may be concludedeither that the characteristicsof effective. Both the pre-CME and post-CME regions have
the solar wind changedbetween 0.7 AU and 1 AU or that similar characteristicsand are very likely to be a sourceof
different solar wind is reachingEarth and Venusthroughout geomagneticstorms of all sizes.
most of the period. Examination of the positionsof PVO Theseobservedcharacteristics
are consistentthroughout
and Earth indicates that both PVO and Earth were in the all phasesof the solar cycle. Thus during solar maximum,
same solar sector during this time period. Thus both when CMEs are the most frequently observedsolar wind
locations should be seeing similar solar wind. The disturbances,mostgeomagneticstorms,includingthe largest
explanationof the inferred differencesbetweenthe 0.7-AU storms,will be producedby CMEs. During solarminimum,
and 1.0-AU values lies, perhaps, in the fact that the solar most geomagnetic storms will be produced by stream
wind is dominatedby small-scaletluctuationsduring this interactionregions, since streaminteractionregionsare the
period, making it unlikely that observations will be dominant solar wind disturbances during this period.
correlatedbetween two locationsseparatedby such a large However, even during solar minimumthe largeststormswill
distance. still be producedby CMEs.
It is obviousfrom Figures 10, 11, and 12 that goodDst The comparisonof observedDst andthatpredictedfrom
prediction capability is possible by using a solar wind observationsat 0.7 AU showsthat excellentpredictionscan
.

monitor as far upstreamof the Earth as 0.7 AU. The best be obtainedfrom as far as -0.3 AU upstreamof the Earth.
agreementis obtainedwhen PVO and the Earth are in near However, this capability is spatially and temporally
radial alignmentwith -0" north/southseparation.Also, the dependent. The bestpredictionsare madewhenthe monitor
agreement between prediction and observationsis much is close to the ecliptic plane and there is near-radial
better during periodsdominatedby large-scaledisturbances, alignmentwith the Earth-Sunline. Also, predictionsare best
such as CMEs and stream interaction regions, than those for periods dominated by large-scaledisturbances(i.e.,
dominatedby small-scalefluctuations. Burton et al. [1975] CMEs) which are the source of the major geomagnetic
showedthat the comparisonbetweenpredictedDst derived storms. This capability can be further improved by
from Explorer 33 and 35 observationsat 1.0 AU and actual incorporatinga modelfor disturbance evolutioninto the Dst
Dst could be remarkably good. The variousdisagreements predictionalgorithmof Burton et al. [1975]. As a whole,
found here betweenthe PVO-basedpredictionsand 1.0-AU the presentstudiesreinforcethe idea that "spaceweather"
observationsmay be related to the evolution of the solar forecastingcan be improved by early detection of fast
wind between 0.7 AU and 1.0 AU (e.g., the spatial and CMEs. The challenge in this case is to deal with the
temporal changesof CMEs and stream interactionregions technological problem of maintaining an observational
with increasingradial distance, and radial variationsof B. outpostfar enoughupstream.
andp differentfromther-xandr-2assumed
here). Although
it is not consideredin this study, that evolution can in Acknowledgements. The Editor thanksK. Takahashiand
principle be modeled by using currently available MHD anotherreferee for their assistance
in evaluatingthis paper.
codes.

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