Research Journal of Agricultural Sciences 2011, 2(4): 876-880

Rainfall Distribution and Frequency of Coimbatore Tamil Nadu

M Manikandan, G Thiyagarajan* and G Vijayakumar
Department of Soil and Water Conservation Engineering, Agricultural Engineering College and Research Institute,
Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore 641 003, Tamil Nadu, India
*Agricultural Research Station, Bhavani Sagar - 638 451, Tamil Nadu, India
e-mail: muthiahmanikandan29@gmail.com

ABSTRACT
Daily rainfall data for 27 years (1981 to 2007) was collected from the meteorological station of the Tamil Nadu
Agricultural University (TNAU) to analyze the nature of distribution and frequency of rainfall. The average annual
rainfall for 27 years data was 708.08 mm and average annual rainy days was 47.4. The maximum monthly rainfall
(181.37 mm) was received during the month of October followed by November (145.94 mm) which was mostly by
North east monsoon. The maximum rainy days were in the month of October (10 days) followed by November (7
days). The rainfall received during the winter, summer, Southwest and Northeast monsoon seasons were 2.69,
th
19.29, 26.38 and 51.64%, respectively. The maximum weekly rainfall was recorded in 44 week and 53% of annual
th th
average rainfall occurred from 37 to 47 week. There exists a linear relationship between weekly rainfall and
rainy days (r = 0.9351). Rainfall frequency analysis done by Weibulls method reveals that an annual rainfall of
973.5mm can be expected to occur once in 28 years at a probability of 4%. The monthly dependable rainfall (P
>68%) is expected to occur in every year except the months of January to March.

Key words: Rainfall distribution, Weibull distribution, Rainy days, Frequency analysis

India is predominantly an agricultural country with
about 60% of the cultivated under rainfed conditions (DES
2000). Among other factors, rainfall variability has major
implications on every countrys economic prosperity.
Hence, it is imperative to under the distribution and
frequency of rainfall in an area. In addition, to irrigation and
crop planning this information is also useful for identifying
moisture availability periods, introduction of new crops in
an agro-ecological zones, developing drought index,
designing water harvesting and drainage structures.
Probability distributions are widely used for understanding
the rainfall distribution and computation of assumed rainfall.
A number of studies have been conducted for location
specific agricultural planning in general and crop planning
in particular by analyzing daily, weekly, monthly, seasonal
and annual rainfall data. Gupta et al. (1975) suggested
cropping system for Doon valley during rainy and winter
crop seasons on the basis of expected amount of rainfall at
80 per cent probability level. Stern and Coe (1982) analyzed
daily rainfall data for crop planning in semi-arid tropics.
Similar analysis of rainfall data has been done for crop
planning in coastal, semi-arid, dry farming and Himalayan
foot hill regions (Sarker et al. 1982, Sharma et al. 1979,
Panigrahi 1998, Tomar and Ranade 2001).
Studies have also been carried out to analyze rainfall
data using Markov chain model for identifying appropriate
cropping systems in different regions (Virmani et al. 1982,
Khichar et al. 2000, Vishwakarma et al. 2000, Dabral and
Jhajharia 2003) and eight two parameter distribution
functions were studied for sub-humid conditions (Sharda
and Das 2005). Keeping the above views in mind, an
attempt has been made to analyze the distribution nature of
rainfall and frequency of rainfall which will be useful for
proper crop planning.
MATERIALS AND METHODS
The Tamil Nadu Agricultural University, Coimbatore,
Tamil Nadu is located at 11 N latitude and 77 E longitude
with an elevation of 426.72m above mean sea level covering
an area of 323.88 ha. The mean annual rainfall is 657mm
distributed in 47 rainy days. Heavy rains are likely to occur
during North East Monsoon. The mean maximum and minimum
temperature is 31.5C and 21.4C, respectively. The mean
relative humidity ranges between 61 to 91% during 07:22 hours
and ranges between 41 to 68% during 14:22 hours. According to
Linsley et al. (1958) every weather stations is enough to
cover 25 km2. Hence according to this requirement one
station would be enough for present study area. Daily
rainfall data for 27 Years (1981 to 2007) was collected from
the Agro Climatic Research Centre of TNAU and was
converted into annual, monthly and weekly rainfall by
arithmetical ways. The relationship between rainfall and
rainy days was found by plotting annual, monthly and
weekly rainfall against rainy days.
Frequency analysis is used to predict how often certain
values of a variable phenomenon may occur and to access
the reliability of the prediction. It is a tool for determining
design rainfalls and design discharges for drainage works
and drainage structures, especially in relation to their
required hydraulic capacity. Frequency analysis is based on
the past records of hydrologic data. Precipitation is most
important and complex phenomena. Rainfall is a random

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hydrologic process and when arranged in a chronological M = the order number of the each event when the data are
order, it constitutes the time series of rainfall data. arranged in decreasing order
The probability of each event is calculated by Weibulls N = the total number of events in the data series
method (Chow 1964): The return periods (recurrence interval) were calculated
P = [M/ (N + 1)] 100 by using the formula:
Where, Return period, T = 1/ P = (N + 1) / M
P = the probability of each event in percent

Monthly Rainfall Rainy Days Mean Rainy days Mean Monthly

200 10
Winter
Summer
2.69%
19.29%
Rainfall (mm)

160 8

Rainydays
120 6

80 4

40 2 North-east
0 0
Monsoon
July
May

October
June
January

April

51.64%
August
February

March

November

December
September

South-west
Monsoon
26.38%
Months

Fig 1 Mean monthly rainfall (mm) and rainy days for the Fig 2 Seasonal distribution of rainfall
period of 1981 2007
Rainfall Raindays 60
60 3 50
y = 19.089x - 3.7999
Rainfall (mm)

50 3 R2 = 0.8744
40
Rainfall (mm)

40 2
Rainydays

30
30 2
20
20 1
10
10 1
0
0 0
0 1 2 3
1

10

13

16

19

22

25

28

31

34

37

40

43

46

49

52

Standard Weeks Rainy days

Fig 3 Mean weekly rainfall (mm) and rainy days for the Fig. 4 Relationship between rainfall and rainy days
period of 1981 2007
Rainfall Probability Return Period

100 1200

1000
Returnperiod (years),

80
Probability (%)

Rainfall (mm)

800
60
600
40
400
20 200

0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Rank

Fig 5 Probability analysis of annual rainfall for the period 1981 2007

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION in rainfall occurrence was observed during these years
Annual rainfall and rainy days (Table 1). The average annual rainy days was 47.4 which
The average for these 27 years rainfall was found to be were between 33 days (2002) and 71 days (1997). It was
708.08 mm. It was also observed that 12 years (44%) observed that no specific trend was observed, but 12 years
received rainfall above average, however, no general trend were above mean rainy days (Fig 1). The maximum and

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 Rainfall Distribution and Frequency of Coimbatore Tamil Nadu
minimum rainfall occurred in 2005 (973.5 mm) and 1995 February. The rainfall received during the winter, summer,
(477.3 mm) with 54 and 39 rainy days, respectively. Even Southwest monsoon and Northeast monsoon are 2.69, 19.29,
though, there is a linear relationship between amount of 26.38 and 51.64%, respectively (Fig 2). It can be concluded
rainfall and rainy days, the maximum and minimum rainfall that maximum rainfall was received during Northeast
does not occur in the corresponding rainy days, which may monsoon by retreating monsoon since the study area is
be due to the fact that heavy rain occurs in a single day located in the rain shadow region of Western Ghats.
during monsoon seasons.
Table 2 Number of Weeks under different amount of
Table 1 Annual rainfall and rainy days for the period of rainfall (mm)
1981-2007 Amount of rainfall (mm)
Year Annual rainfall (mm) Number of rainy days Year
>=0 > 20 > 40 > 60 > 80 > 100
1981 833.0 61 1981 39 5 3 5 0 0
1982 639.9 41 1982 44 2 2 2 2 0
1983 666.2 44 1983 44 3 2 1 1 1
1984 885.0 51 1984 39 7 2 1 0 3
1985 553.6 49 1985 45 3 0 3 0 1
1986 506.2 40 1986 42 7 1 2 0 0
1987 677.6 48 1987 42 3 3 2 2 0
1988 522.5 40 1988 45 3 1 3 0 0
1989 582.1 41 1989 42 5 4 1 0 0
1990 568.4 35 1990 41 8 1 1 0 1
1991 482.8 45 1991 44 5 2 1 0 0
1992 737.0 50 1992 42 3 3 2 1 1
1993 659.7 49 1993 41 8 1 0 0 2
1994 915.4 58 1994 43 3 1 1 0 4
1995 477.3 39 1995 45 4 1 2 0 0
1996 743.7 55 1996 41 5 1 2 2 1
1997 867.9 71 1997 37 7 4 1 1 2
1998 949.0 43 1998 39 5 3 2 0 3
1999 598.2 47 1999 43 5 1 2 0 1
2000 624.5 48 2000 45 2 2 0 2 1
2001 731.8 40 2001 43 4 2 1 0 2
2002 532.4 33 2002 45 4 1 0 1 1
2003 644.4 41 2003 39 9 2 1 0 1
2004 959.8 65 2004 37 6 4 3 1 1
2005 973.5 54 2005 37 6 4 2 0 3
2006 924.6 47 2006 36 8 4 1 1 2
2007 861.8 46 2007 39 4 5 1 1 2
Mean 708.1 47.4 Total 1119 134 60 43 15 33
SD 162.0 9 Mean 41 5 2 2 1 1

Monthly rainfall and rainy days
The maximum rainfall (181.37 mm) was received in the
month of October during North east monsoon season. The
minimum rainfall of 7.56 mm was received by February and
also some pretty reasonable summer showers during April
and May (Fig 1). The mean monthly rainfall was 59 mm and
the months except September, October and November
received below the mean. January, February and March
received no rainfall for 14, 17 and 10 years, respectively,
which reveals that the area experiences a dry season. The
number of rainy days goes in hands with the mean monthly
rainfall. It increases gradually from January to October and
then it decreases. The average monthly rainy days was 4 and
seven months experienced more than the average rainy days.
The maximum rainy days were in the month of October (10
days) followed by November (7 days) and the minimum
rainy days were in the month of January followed by
Weekly rainfall and rainy days
It was observed that the variations in weekly rainfall
showed fluctuations up to 36th week. There after rainfall
showed an increasing trend and gradually decreased to the
52nd week. The maximum weekly rainfall was recorded in
the 44th week (57 mm) followed by 45th week (54 mm). The
minimum weekly rainfall was received in the 4th week and
followed by 5th week. Thirty seventh week (71.25%)
received a rainfall less than the average weekly rainfall of
13.6 mm. From 37th to 47th week (11 weeks) contributed
more than 53 per cent of annual average rainfall (Fig 3). It
can be observed that the weekly rainy days move up and
down and reached the maximum in 43rd week and gradually
decreased thereafter. The maximum number of rainy days
was recorded from 43rd to 45th week (6 % of weeks). Weekly
rainfall data was classified into 6 classes and number of
weeks under each class (Table 2). It can be observed that

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most of the weeks the rainfall is less than 20mm (78.85% in the year 1994 but no week had rains greater than 100 mm
weeks) and only one week recorded greater than 100 mm. in 8 years.
However, there were 4 weeks having greater than 100 mm

Table 3 Monthly Rainfall probability (P) and Return Period (T)

Rank T P Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1 28 4 72.7 53.8 151.4 167.5 167.6 107.8 125.8 163.6 210.4 333.1 306.6 161.6
2 14 7 70.4 36.9 121.7 144.4 126.2 74.2 121.5 109.8 170.5 306.1 303.7 144.5
3 9 11 37.5 29.0 119.1 138.3 105.8 60.6 82.0 84.3 154.7 290.3 299.1 136.3
4 7 14 28.7 25.0 69.2 114.6 101.6 57.8 81.7 68.8 124.4 288.8 294.0 117.2
5 6 18 28.2 21.8 46.2 96.0 83.8 56.4 75.1 68.5 119.4 286.7 247.7 114.9
6 5 21 27.4 17.5 46.2 96.0 82.1 52.6 67.0 50.6 98.9 278.8 237.3 60.1
7 4 25 10.0 11.5 41.9 92.1 81.4 51.8 59.4 49.7 96.9 261.1 235.1 59.0
8 4 29 10.0 5.2 39.7 80.2 80.8 49.8 51.5 48.8 93.6 259.0 195.8 40.5
9 3 32 10.0 3.0 21.4 63.0 68.8 48.4 47.7 46.0 82.6 237.2 171.9 37.3
10 3 36 9.8 0.5 15.5 59.8 55.6 48.4 46.4 36.2 69.3 227.7 155.8 29.1
11 3 39 3.8 0.0 10.5 57.7 53.8 42.7 44.1 28.9 63.2 213.1 136.6 23.2
12 2 43 2.0 0.0 7.5 53.4 53.4 41.9 43.5 28.4 57.3 210.1 126.8 22.6
13 2 46 0.2 0.0 6.0 52.6 53.0 41.0 39.5 27.0 56.0 205.0 119.8 18.1
14 2 50 0.0 0.0 2.0 43.8 52.5 34.5 36.8 25.4 52.8 197.6 109.8 17.1
15 2 54 0.0 0.0 1.8 29.5 43.4 34.0 36.7 24.6 48.9 183.2 105.4 10.2
16 2 57 0.0 0.0 0.5 29.2 42.5 34.0 31.4 24.5 44.4 154.5 104.2 8.4
17 2 61 0.0 0.0 0.5 29.0 34.5 28.0 30.5 24.2 36.3 136.9 99.7 8.1
18 2 64 0.0 0.0 0.0 27.1 33.0 27.4 25.8 23.5 29.6 124.8 99.0 8.0
19 1 68 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.6 31.1 24.0 25.4 22.8 28.0 119.4 93.7 7.0
20 1 71 0.0 0.0 0.0 24.4 29.1 23.7 23.9 21.9 28.0 107.4 86.2 6.0
21 1 75 0.0 0.0 0.0 19.9 25.0 21.9 20.0 15.7 24.3 100.0 80.6 1.8
22 1 79 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.0 22.5 17.0 19.9 15.6 22.4 95.1 75.3 1.7
23 1 82 0.0 0.0 0.0 12.5 19.5 16.8 15.7 14.6 21.4 81.5 67.8 1.0
24 1 86 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.0 19.3 10.1 10.6 13.7 19.9 80.1 61.4 0.6
25 1 89 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.0 13.9 8.0 8.7 8.6 16.5 52.8 56.5 0.4
26 1 93 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.0 6.9 6.8 7.5 6.0 14.4 36.8 44.4 0.0
27 1 96 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.2 6.5 2.0 6.5 0.8 0.0 30.0 26.1 0.0

Relationship between rainfall and rainy days
It is generally believed that total rainfall is the function
of total number of rainy days. The correlation coefficient (r
= 0.935) between the two revels that there exist a linear
relationship between these two. It was further revealed that
the rainfall was higher than normal in 2006 (924.6) and
1998 (949 mm) whereas rainy days in the corresponding
years were marginally lower than the normal (2006- 47
days, 1998- 43 days). Weekly rainfall against weekly rainy
days was plotted (Fig 4) and the regression equation (Y =
19.089 X -3.7999, R2 = 0.8744) was developed between the
variables rainfall (Y) and rainy days (X), in which 87% of
the variables will follow this relationship (Dabral 1996,
Chakraborty and Mandal 2008).
Rainfall frequency analysis
Rainfall frequency analysis of 27 years annual rainfall
data were done by Weibulls method. It reveals that an
annual rainfall of 973.5mm can be expected to occur once in
28 years at a probability of 4% (Fig 5). It does not mean that
this magnitude of rainfall will occur at a regular interval of
28 years, but it only means that there is every chance for that
rainfall to occur once in 28 years. The monthly dependable
rainfall (with the probability greater than 68 per cent) is
expected to occur in every year during the month of April to
December with more accumulation during October and
November (Table 3). The rainfall that is expected to occur in
other recurrence intervals is considered to be undependable.
Daily rainfall data from 1981 to 2007 (27 Years) was
collected from the meteorological station of the university to
analysis the nature of distribution of rainfall and frequency
of rainfall. The maximum (973.5 mm) and minimum (477.4
mm) annual rainfalls were received during the years 2005
and 1995, respectively. The average annual rainfall and
rainy days were 708.08mm and 47. The maximum monthly
rainfall and maximum rainy days (181.37mm and 10 days)
was received during the month of October followed by
November (145.94mm and 7 days). The rainfall received
during the winter, summer, Southwest monsoon and
Northeast monsoon are 2.69, 19.29, 26.38 and 51.64%,

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 Rainfall Distribution and Frequency of Coimbatore Tamil Nadu
respectively. Maximum rainfall was received during
Northeast monsoon by retreating monsoon since the study
area is located in the rain shadow region of Western Ghats.
The maximum weekly rainfall was received in 44th week (57
mm) followed by 45th week (54 mm). 71.25% weeks (37
Weeks) received the rainfall less than the average weekly
rainfall of 13.6 mm. The average weekly rainy day was one
and weekly rainy days were reached the maximum of 3 days
from 43rd week to 45th week (6% of Weeks). It is generally
believed that total rainfall is the function of total number of
rainy days. The correlation coefficient (r = 0.935) between
the two revels that some specific trend existing between the
two. The regression equation (Y = 19.089 x -3.7999)
developed between the variables rainfall (y) and rainy days
(x) can explain more than 87% of the variables. A 28 year
frequency of 973.5mm rainfall can be expected to be
equaled or exceeded once in 28 years at a probability of 4%.
Likewise 1, 2, 4, 7 and 14 years recurrence interval, the
expected rainfall was estimated at 477.3mm, 666.2mm,
885mm, 924.6mm and 959.8mm at the probability level of
96%, 50%, 25%, 14% and 7%, respectively.

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