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Hot days, hot nights and heat waves are more frequent
Climate Change: the “debate”
Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are increasing
GHGs are
CO2
9-26%
GWP – 1; 278ppb 365ppb
Methane (CH4)
4-9%
GWP – 72; 700ppb 1745ppb
Nitrous Oxide (N2O)
GWP – 289; 270ppb 314ppb
Ozone
3-7%
Water Vapour
36-72%
GHGs affect the climate system
World average temperature has risen relatively fast over the past 30
years
Sea-level rise is gradually accelerating
Many temperature-sensitive systems/processes have changed over
the past two decades
Risks to Small Island-States
Coastal flooding
Amplified storm surges
Damaged coastal infrastructure
Roads
Salination of island fresh-water
Impaired crop production
Population displacement
Diverse health risks
Nutrition
Infection
Mental health
GHG: Coming Decades
China is the world's second largest emitter of such gases, after the
United States – even though China's per-person emissions are, for
example, still only one-eighth of those in the United States.
Some Observations
Global-average surface temperature increased by about 0.6 ºC over 20th century
1990s warmest decade and 1998 warmest year in last 1000 years in Northern
Hemisphere
Over last 50 years night-time minimum temperatures increased by about 0.2 ºC
per decade
10% reduction in snow cover/ ice since late 1960s
Reduction of about two weeks in annual duration of lake and river ice over 20th
century
Widespread retreat of mountain glaciers during 20th century
Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea-ice extent decreased by 10-15%
since 1950s
40% decline in late summer Arctic sea-ice thickness in recent decades
Global-average sea level has increased by 10-20 cm during 20th century
0.5-1% per decade increase in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude precipitation
during 20th century
2-4% increase in frequency of heavy precipitation events in Northern Hemisphere
mid- and high-latitudes over latter half of 20th century
Future climate change projections
Very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events
will continue to become more frequent
The lower the stabilization level, the more quickly this peak and decline
would need to occur
Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large
impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels
Energy
Cleaner Fuel use, Alternative energy sources, Fuel switch
Transport
Vehicle efficiency, hybrid vehicles, biofuels, modal shift
Buildings
Efficient lighting, appliances, ACs, improved insulation, solarheating and cooling,
alternatives of Fluorinated gases
Industry
Heat & power recovery, recycling, emission control
Agriculture
Land mgmt, restoration of degraded lands, improved cultivation techniques,
improved fertilizer applications
Forests
Forest mgmt, reduced deforestation, Forestry
Waste
LF methane recovery, waste incineration and energy recovery, composting,
recycling & waste minimization
Carbon markets: Opportunities
Kyoto Protocol – emission reduction
commitments for industrialized countries
Provided for flexibility mechanisms for emissions
reduction
Evolution of carbon markets
Deployment, diffusion of clean technologies
At sufficiently high price of carbon large shifts of
investments into low carbon technologies can be
expected
Kyoto Protocol
Protocol of UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change)
Adopted on 11th Dec, 1997 at Kyoto
Ratified by 187 states – US has not and accounts for 36% of emissions
China, India and other developing nations not included
Aim
Stabilization of GHGs
At levels that will prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference
How?
Annex-1 countries (37 industrialized nations)
Reduce gas emissions by 5.2% over 1990 levels
Flexible mechanisms
Emissions Trading
CDM (Clean Development mechanism)
Joint Implementation
Copenhagen
UNFCCC meet in Copenhagen in Dec, 2009
Copenhagen Accord
India, China, US, Brazil, South Africa
Temperature increase to be limited to 2 degrees
Most countries have indicated emission reduction targets
No binding agreement has been signed
India, China and US have indicated cuts in GHGs
1990 or 2005 levels
Purely Voluntary commitments
Non binding
Danish Text
2 degree cap
Developing countries adverse reaction – Collusion by Developed nations
Next session in Mexico in 2010
ATMOSPHERE
Terrestrial
radiation
Clouds
Greenhouse gases and aerosol
Solar
radiation
Ice- sheets Precipitation
snow Sea-ice
Biomass OCEAN
LAND
THE CLIMATE
SYSTEM
Kilimanjaro 1970
Ice on Kilimanjaro
15
Area (km 2)
10
0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Kilimanjaro 2000
1.4
Number of Earths
1.2 used by humanity
1.0
One Earth is available
0.8 (The planet’s total bio-
capacity = 1.0)
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
Based on Wackernagel et al, 2002
Changes in environmental indicators, 1750 - 2000
17
Central estimate = 2.5 oC
(plus increased variability)
16
Low
15
14 Band of historical
climatic variability
13
1860 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
Sea-level rise over coming centuries
Sea-Level Rise, over the coming millennium
following 70 years of excess greenhouse gas emissions
1.5
1.0
Ocean Expansion
Ice-melt
0.5
0.0
200 400 600 800
The Skeptics
Their Fig. 3: High Latitude Temperature and Solar Variability
Uses outdated
estimate of solar
irradiance
(see AR4,WG1,Ch2)
Ignores attribution to
solar forcing based on
physical computations
(see AR4,WG1,Ch 6,9)
How much warmer was it? Not 1995 report - 1990 report: A schematic sketch!
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Skeptics
Other Contentions
“Model’s can’t forecast weather beyond a few days
– so they can’t show climate decades ahead.”
Model projections of
global temperature
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Skeptics
Other Contentions
“Climate has changed without humans. It’s all natural cycles.”
Simulations
with natural
forcings only
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Skeptics
Other Contentions
“In the 1970s scientists said an ice age was coming. Now they’ve flip-
flopped ”
[Thousands of yr]
(IPCC AR4 – Ch. 6)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Skeptics
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Skeptics
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Skeptics
Alternate Explanations for GW
Solar Irradiance
Sun is most active in the last 60 years of the last 1000 years
Cosmic rays
High Sun output Low Cosmic rays Low Cloud Cover Higher
Temperatures
Land use
Solar Activity vs. Global
Temperatures
• Solar Irradiance
Solar Irradiance vs.
Temperatures