SPE 29466

4n Evaluation of a Method to I?redict Umlmo-wn Watei Lwek

in Reservoirs and Quantifying the Uncertainty
3yron Hayncs, Jr.*, BP Exploration (Alaska), Inc.
SPE Member
~hl 1SS5,
Sooimy
ofPwofwm Englm3arn,Inc.

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This is performed by superimposing the

estimation of the water saturation, at that
A technique developed by Hawkins,et.al.(l) depth, on the curve. The distance to the FWL
which integrates log and core data to predict (or water contact) from that point can be
water levels in hydrocarbon reservoirs has identified by converting the capillary
been evaluated using Alaska, Gulf of Mexico pressure curve to height above the FWL,
and North Sea reservoirs. The method is Although penetration of the water contact is
based on the construction of a synthetic not required with this method, it does assume
capillary pressure curve from porosity, homogeneity of the rock column.
permeability, and water saturation at each
available data point in the rock coIumn. However, the advantage of the capillary
Regression analysis is used to estimate the pressure model technique over the above
Free Water Level (FWL) and an associated technique is that it does not assume the rock
-- m..-. -- 1.. if tiie ~~ interva! is homogeneous but uses measured
Confldcrlce iiitervz:. bull tGs Z&y,
is known, the model can be used to estimate porosity, permeability, and water saturation
porosity, permeability, or water saturation, data. Additional strengths of the capillary
when two of the three parameters are known. pressure model approach to determining
water level are: reliable FWL estimation in a
T..-ll...l l.. transition zone, prediction of rock properties
1 y~lbUllyp w~~~i ccntacts are !ecated by
drilling down structure wells, by obtaining and water saturations, rind a consistency
pressure information from RFTs or DSTs, or check of capillary pressure data. No analysis
by capillary pressure data. Unfortunately, of data consistency was performed in this
estimating water contacts from RFTs, DSTs work. However, it is apparent that since the
and down structure wells requires the water model is a functional form of capillary
contact be penetrated. Available capillary pressure behavior, estimates of displacement
pressure measurements, although scarce, can pressures can be checked along with the
be used to estimate the vertical distance to the shape of the data in the high pressure region.
FWL, defined as the point of zero capillary
pressure for the hydrocarbon/water column.

Reference and illustrationsat end of paper

2 AN EVALUATION OF A METHOD TO PREDICT UNKNOWN WATER LEVELS IN SPE 29466
RESERVOIRS AND QUANTIFYING THE UNCERTAINTY

ODUCTION The capiiiary pressure nmdel id~t~~ pcmsib~

(0), water saturation (sw ), and absolute
.:-- p~~meabiiit~ (k) to capillary pressure (Pc).
Dcveioping and operating ~fi oil Gi gas

reservoir requires a knowledge of the The model is based on the work of Thomeer,
location of the water contact. Typically, Swanson, and Pittman (2,3,4). Thomeer
water contacts are located by drilling down presented a method that provides a
structure wells, pressure information from mathematical description of capillary
RFTs or DSTs, or capillary pressure data. pressure curves. The technique is based on
Unfortunately, estimating water contacts the observation that location and shape of a
from RFTs, DSTs and down structure wells capillary pressure curve reflect
requires the water contact be penetrated. characteristics of pore structure. He
Available capillary pressure measurements, observed when measured values of Pc and
aith@@ WZWe, Gait be iised tO Winlitk the %Ev of mercury iniected ._-J--- into a sample are
vertical distance to the Free Water Level plotted on log-log paper, a smooth curve best
(FWL), defined as the point of zero capillary fitting the points approximates a hyperbola.
pressure for the hydrocarbon/water column.
This is performed by superimposing the Swanson (3) showed the apex of the mercury
estimation of the water saturation, at that capillary pressure curve is the point where
depth, on the curve. The distance to the FWL mercury has encountered that portion of
(or water contact) from that point can be pore space that effectively contributes to flow
identified, by converting the -
capillary (see Figure 1)0 BaSeti Oit iii~ wOik With319
pressure curve to height above the FWL. samples (116 carbonate and 203 sandstones),
Although penetration of the water contact is Swanson developed an quation which relates
not required with this method, it does assume the apex point to air permeability. Since this
homogeneity of the rock column. point is not always convenient to measure,
Pittman (4) developed a relationship between
the effective pore throat radius occupied by
the mercury at the apex point and air
The water level estimation technique, permeability in sandstones. Simplifying and
developed by Hawkins, et. al. (l), uses a combining the equations of Thomeer,
capillary pressure model which was Swanson, and Pittman gives a capillary
developed from correlations of capillary pressure model that relates capillary
pressure data from over 300 different rock pressure, porosity, permeability and water
samples. The advantage of this technique is saturation:
that it does not require penetration of a water
contact or availability of special core analysis logloPc = -G/ln(l-SW )
data. The model uses values of Sw, 0, and k at + Ioglopd (1)
each depth in the reservoir in the wellbore
(where available) to construct a synthetic where
capillary pressure curve for the rock at that
depth. The curves are regressed by G= [ln(5.21(kO1254 /0)]2/2.303 (2)
minimizing the errors in the predictions of
FWL. A 95 % confidence interval of FWLs is and
then calculated. After finding a value of FWL
to meet this criteria, this value is used to Pd = 937.8/(k0*3406 @) (3)
update the porosities, permeabiiities, arid
saturations by assuming a standard error of These equations were developed from a
measurement. Thus, large residuals can dataset that contained a wide range of rock
indicate the quality of the data or variability properties: k = 0.05-998 md and 0 = 3.3%- 28%.
of rock types present. ~o - improve the model, capillary pressure data,

~~~
SPE 29466 BYRON HAYNES, JR.

when avaiiabie, snouid be used to adjust &e

constants.
The first example is from a field on the North
Slope of Alaska. The OWC in this field is
estimated to be at 9069 TVDSS from resistivity
-----
The capillary pressure model relates ~, k, sw, iog responses from wzvcrai WdiS (F;~ki~ 2).
and Pc. Therefore, since capillary pressure is Porosity and permeability measurements
related to height above the FWL, the model were made on core taken in the #4 well. To
can be written as a function of FWL for each improve the prediction of the FWL, the
depth. The procedure to estimate the FWL capillary pressure model was calibrated to the
requires regressing the foot-by-foot mercury capillary pressure data from the #5,
predictions of F-W-L from the modcis. The #~, ~Q~ #g w~ii~
procedure uses an initial estimate of FWL to
..=. the regression.
begin Function values are G= [in(2.831 k 2O 9 4/0)] 2/2.303 (4)
calculated at each depth and the errors
between the estimate of the FWL and the Pd = 483.77/(kO*247$0 ) (5)
model predictions are summed over the
interval of interest. The regression iterates
on a value of FWL which minimizes the sum
of the errors in the FWL predictions and the Capillary pressure data from the #4 was not
FWL estimate. used due to reporting inconsistencies. The
calibrated model was used to regress 102 data
The FWL which satisfies this criterion is used points over an interval from 8829 - 9062
to calculate updated values of 0, k, and Sw, In TVDSS. Based on the regression, the predicted
this sense, this regression technique treats 0, FWL was 9077: TVDSS with a cotifiderice
k, Sw as observable that have a measurement interval from 9073 - 9083 TVDSS. The OWC
error associated with them. This method is an was predicted to be at 9074 TVDSS.
improvement over standard least squares
techniques where the input data are treated Using 9069 TVDSS as the FWL, the calibrated
as constants. Error bars are computed for the model was used to predict permeability
FWL estimate based on a CHI-Square through the regressed interval. Figure 3
distribution with a 95% confidence limit. This shows that the prediction of permeability
means that 95 out 100 times, the lWL will be agrees well with the core permeabilities.
within the range of the error bars. However, it is noted that the model
consistently predicts permeabilities high for
in the case where the F%% is imo-wit, &e permeahiiiti~ iess than 100 md. This is due to
model can be used to calculate other the calibration technique requiring a linear
parameters. Three out of four parameters are least squares fit, with equal weighting of apex
required to calculate the fourth. saturations and pressures as functions of
permeability, and to a large majority of
samples above 100 md (62 % of the samples).

There are three examples shown here. The le z

examples used single wells to predict the
location of the water contact. Wells were used Example 2 is from a sandstone reservoir in
in which log and core data were available. the Gulf of Mexico. The prediction of the
One well penetrated the contact, and the data water level in the western area of the Upper
used for the regression was from the interval Yellow Horizon was made based on the core
above the contact. In the remaining wells, and log measurements taken in the Upper
the water contact was inferred from offset Yellow Horizon of the #3 st. 1 well. At this
wells or from seismic. location, the well penetrates the Upper

227
 ..
- ----- .. .
4 AN EVALUA~l~N OF A ~H~D To ~REDiL~ U-N~-(yW-N W-A~i?iR~~~ iN M% H466
RESERVOIRS AND QUANTIFYING THE UNCERTAINTY

Yellow at a depth of 16545 TVDSS (Figure 4). saturation of 22%. Because the rock
As seen from the log response in the downdip properties are so favorable, the rock will
#4 (Figure 5), the Upper Yellow Horizon is cut exhibit a sharp transition zone as predicted
-.--- : ---- ~.. .
at 16Yi!U l_vDss wltn no apparent water by the FWii iocateci 10 beiow the iowest data
contact. point. Figure 6 shows how the regression is
sensitive to the saturation used.
In this part of the field, the prediction of the
water contact in the Upper Yellow Horizon is Figure 6 is a comparison of the experimental
a severe test of the model for two reasons. capillary pressure curve to the modei
First, good quality rock in the #3 st. 1 suggests capillary pressure curve converted to a
a sharp transition zone. Second, amplitude height above the FWL. As can be seen in the
analysis indicates a hydrocarbon column in figure, there is good agreement between the
excess of 1000 as measured downdip from the measurement and the model prediction. The
#3 St. 1. This means that the buoyancy plot indicates the height of the hydrocarbon
pressure exerted by the column at the #3 st. 1 column from the #3 st. 1 well, if the FWL is
would be high enough to drive the water below the Upper Yellow Horizon in the #4
saturation into the vertical portion of the well. At this point the model and the
capillary pressure curve. Therefore, small experimental data indicate that the average
errors in the estimation of water saturation water saturation should be approximately
in the interval would project to large errors lo%. As can be seen at this point on the
in the estimation of the FWL. saturation curve, an increase in 4 saturation
units (the upper limit of the error between
Stressed porosities, permeabilities and the model and the data) will dramatically
capillary pressures were measured from the reduce the height of the column to
core over the interval 16551 TVDSS to 16594 approximately 40 feet. On the other hand, the
TVDSS in the #3 st. 1 well. A local capillary error associated with the log calculated
pressure model was then developed from this saturations is on the order of 10 saturation
A-..
UUL6
..-:A-
LLIU U.
TL:- 2: St---- -- .-.-..1> >-:--- .L- I--:-L.
1 LLls Ulllcrawc WULLKL LLrlve Ule Ilclgnt
of the column down to the point where the
G= [ln(5.6191 kO*lS264/0)]2/2 .303 (6) two predictions are in agreement.

id = 2071/(koo34934 0) (7) 3
Log calculated water saturations were based Example 3 is taken from the J2 prospect, a
on the SFL device and the density log because satellite to the Magnus Field in the North Sea
of good agreement with the MWD resistivity (Figure 7). Estima;es of the OWC in this field
and core measurements, respectively. were uncertain and placed OOIP estimates
Electrical parameters of m=n= 1.8 and a matrix between 12 - 103 MMstb. However, based on
density of 2.65 g/cm3 were used for the RFT data and saturation mapping, the most
calculations. Using this data, the FWL was likely estimate of the OWC is 3020 - 3024 m
predicted at 16604 TVDSS with a confidence TVDSS. This results in an OOIP of
interval from 16598 TVDSS to 16625 TVDSS. approximately 34 MMstb for the satellite.
Clearly the estimated water level is
inconsistent with the absence of a water The data used in this example came from
contact in the #4 well. conventional core measurements of $ and k,
reservoir fluid analysis, and log data from
This discrepancy reflects the portion of the well 21 l/7A-5Z (Figure 8), As can be seen in
capillary pressure curve where the this figure, a water contact is not discernible
saturations are being used to predict height. from the log. A production test from the well
The interval that is being used to make this placed the lowest known oil at 2971 m TVDSS.
prediction is a rock with average properties Figure 9 shows RFT data taken in the 21 l/7A-
of 643 md and 28% porosity and a water 5Z well and wells in the Magnus field (MSM).

228
SPE 29466 BYRON HAYNES, JR. 5

Well 21 l/7A-5Z produces out of the Brent predictions of FWL. However, the model can
sandstone and appears to produce out of a be used to check log derived saturations if the
different accumulation than the MSM. As water level is known from other data.
seen from this figure and delineated by
drilling, the MSM has an OWC at a depth of The second strength of the model is in the
-3150 m TVDSS. Also, RFT data from the 52 estimation of rock properties. If the water
well and 21 l/12a-14 well indicate that the level and saturations are known along with
FWL in the Brent sandstone is above the MSM one of the rock properties ($ or k), the other
OWC yet is below the depth inferred as the can be estimated.
OWC in the 52 well.
The third benefit of the model is its ability to
Porosities calculated from the log porosity check capillary pressure data consistency.
measurements agreed well with the No analysis of data consistency was
conventional core $. Therefore, a + - k performed in this work, however it is
transform was developed from conventional apparent that since the model is a functional
core anal ysis and applied to the log calculated form of capillary pressure behavior,
porosities in this well to calculate k at each estimates of displacement pressures can be
depth of interest. Using the log porosity, k checked along with the shape of the data in
transform from the log, and water saturation the high pressure region.
calculated from the log, a FWL was calculated

with an OWC calculated from Pd at 3039 m co~

TVDSS , +/- 3 m, assuming a +/- 5 saturation
unit uncertainty in water saturation. This 1. Capillary pressure model requires
estimate is not confirmed by actual data but permeability, porosity, and water
gives more certainty to the original estimate saturation to predict the FWL.
of the OWC. At 3039 m TVDSS, the OOIP is
calculated to be 42 MMstb. 2. The capillary pressure model can reliably

predict the FWL in a reservoir if the sand
DiSCUSSiOn is in a transition zone.

This analysis has identified three strengths of 3. The capillary pressure model can
the capillary pressure model: FWL estimation, reasonably predict permeabilities if
prediction
=_________ of rock nronerties
=-_=------ ; and a porosities, saturations, and the FWL is
consistency check of capillary pressure data. known with confidence.
The estimate of FWL will be reliable only if
the rock interval is in a transition zone. The 4. The capillary pressure model can be used
reason for this is seen by analyzing the shape as a check of log derived water saturation
of a synthetic capillary pressure curve. values when $, k, and FWL are known.

The transition zone in a rock is represented 5. The model can be used to check the
by the plateau region of the capillary consistency of capillary pressure data at
pressure curve (Figure 10). Predictions from the displacement pressure and the shape
the model in this work show that good of the curve in the high pressure region.
agreement exists between the predicted
pressures and the experimental pressures in
this region. However, if the saturations are
low enough, a rock interval will exist in the
FWL - free water level, depth in the reservoir
steep slope region of the curve. This area of
where Pc = O.
the curve is indicative of a well being high in
the hydrocarbon column and as seen in G - pore geometrical factor, dimensionless
Example 2, the model will give unreliable k- absolute permeability, md
Pd - extrapolated displacement pressure,
6 AN EVALUATION OF A METHOD TO PREDICT UNKNOWN WATER LEVELS IN SPE 29466
RESERVOIRS AND QUANTIFYING THE UNCERTAINTY

psi DEFINITION OF THE PARAMETERS

PC - capillary pressure, psi
SW - water saturation, fraction
o - porosity, %

OWLEDG~

Doug Wilsons assistance in the development

of the graphics is gratefully appreciated. The
author wishes to thank the management of BP
Exploration for rpermission
-- ..---- to publish this
paper.

1. Hawkins, J. M.,et. al., Capillary Pressure

Model Predicts Distance to Gas/Water, 100 f+ e io 1
Oil/Water Contact, Oil and Gas Journal, s.
Jan. 18, 1993. BULKVOLUMEOCdbiED BYMERCURY(%)
Figure 1
2. Thomeer, J. H. M., Introduction of a Pore
Geometrical Factor Defined by the
Capillary Pressure Curve, JPT, March
i960$pp. 73-77. Figure2 Well #4 Log

3. Swanson, B. F., A Simple Correlation

Between Permeabilities and Mercury
Capillary Pressures, JPT, December 1981,
81
pp. 2498-2504.
1
I q-~
4. Pittman, E. D., Relationship of Porosity and 8 I
Permeability to Various Parameters
Derived from Mercury Injection Capillary
Pressure Curves for Sandstone, AAPG
Bu!!etin, vole 76, NQe z, F~bruq 1992, pp.
191-198.

5. Thomas, E.c. and Stieber, S. J.,The

Distribution of Shale in Sandstones and its
Effect Upon Porosity, SPWLA Reprint
Volume - Shaly Sand , July 1982.

230
SPE 29466 BYRONHAYNES, JR.

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231
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233