Proceedings of the 7th Intemational Conference on

Properties and Applications of Dielectric Materials

June 1-5 2003 Nagoya
P2-45

Decision on Maintenance Period for Power Transformer

based on Monte Carlo Simulation of Reliability

Na Liu ' Wensheng Gao ' Kexiong Tan '

Liufang Wang Guodong Liang ' Wei Li
' Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University Beijing 100084, China
Anhui Electric Power Testing and Research Institute Hefei 230022, China
' Anhui Electric Power Company Hefei 230061. China
* E-mail : liuna00~mails.tsinghua.edu.cn

Abstract: The problem of selecting a suitable
maintenance period is vital for preventive maintenance
of power transformer. Traditionally, maintenance
period can be calculated by model with an objective
function, such as availability, maintenance cost, or
reliability o f the equipment. However, it i s difficult
to directly apply these models for power transformer,
because its reliability is high, and there i s no enough
reliability data to calculate the objective functions.
Therefore, a simulated maintenance period model is
developed in this paper. Firstly, Monte Carlo method
and Fault Tree method are applied to generate
simulated fault times o f the transformer system.
Secondly, Mission Reliability is calculated based on
these simulated data and acts as the objective function
in the model. Finally, this model i s applied to
investigate the maintenance period of
transformer.
INTRODUCTION
Transformer i s important electrical equipment in power
system, and it is significant to enhance their reliability
and safety. Maintenance and repair activities are o f
fundamental importance for the safe and efficient
operation of any industrial plants or equipment, and
power transformers do notmake an exception.
Various models have been developed to determine
maintenance period for the needs of various
decision-makers. From the point o f view of objective
function, these models can be broadly divided into two
categories. One is about reliability or safety, such as
MTTF [I](Mean Time to Failure), Availability [2],
Reliability [3]. The other i s about economy, such as
the operation or repair costs [4]. Based on these
models, the maintenance decision can be more objective
and reasonable.
However, these models do not fit the needs o f the
applications in power transformer. Because they are
all o f analystic model, in which to calculate the object
functions a larger amount o f operation or repair records
are indispensable. In fact, the fault rate o f
transformer per year can only be several hundredths or
even several thousandths. I t i s hard to obtain enough
fault information about the overall system. Therefore,
the purpose o f this paper i s to develop a simulated
model for the calculation o f maintenance period. The
characteristic o f this model i s that the reliability data
power about faults are simulated data generated by Monte
Carlo Simulation and Fault Tree Analysis, and the
objective function is Mission Reliability.
ASSUMPTIONS AND NOTATIONS
Assumptions
( I ) The system has n components and the distribution
function o f each component i s known.
(2) A l l components are functioning at time 0.
(3) Repair (scheduled or unscheduled) i s perfect, i.e.
instantaneous, and restores the system to like-new.
Notations
MC Monte Carlo
FTA Fault Tree Analysis

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 state vector o f the system at time t,
Structural Function
minimal cutset (MCs)
number o f Monte Carlo trials
fault time of the i th component MCs
fault time o f the m th MCS
fault time o f the system
cumulative distribution function
random number of [0,1]
system reliability
Mission reliability
maintenance period
MONTE CARLO S I M U L A T I O N B A S E D
F A U L T TREE
basic event (e) as component fault. Then, with the
help ofthe principles o f Structure Function and Minimal
Cutset (MCs) the system fault time I, could be
calculated from all o f its component fault time 1 ) . ... ,I,?
In FTA, Structural Function represents the occurrence o f
top event, and its definition is
where ..., x,(I)) is the state vector o f the
X(~)=(x,(l),
system at time I , and the element x,(i), represents the
occurrence of the Ith basic event, is definedas follows
ON I if e, Is no1 fincfioning af f
&(I)= (3)
0 if e, is funclionging at I

In FTA, MCs i s a set of basic events and the occurrence

Monte Carlo simulation i s an effective numerical
o f all these basic events can directly causes the
calculation method which is good at dealing with
occurrence of the top event. Therefore, structure
random problems [ 5 ] . Fault Tree i s a tool to express
function can be expressed i n the form o f MCs as shown
the fault relationships between components and the
in follows
overall system [6].
k

Firstly, the Monte Carlo method is introduced to

O(W= z M,(X(l))
j=l
(4)

generate fault times I, of all the components; Secondly, where M,(X(r)) is the j th MCs, and k is the number of
Fault Tree is introduced to calculate fault time t, o f the
MCs in structure function.
overall system based on those of the components.
Thirdly, a serious o f simulated data oft, will be obtained From the characteristic o f MCs, we can see that the
after .I\/ times o f the repetition o f the former two occurring moment I,, of MCs is determined by the
processes, and then the system reliability R ( t ) i s moment when all i t s basic events are not functioning;
calculated. The specifics of each process are as and the occurring moment of top event I,i s determined
follows: by the moment o f the earliest occurring MCs. That is,
if all the fault time of basic events in MCs are known,
Generation of Component Fault Time then I
, is

I
, = m a x ( ~ ,...,
, I,) (5)
Assume the cumulative distribution function of the i th
component i s F, ( I ) ( i = I,' ' ',n ), then its fault time o f I, where I, is the fault time o f the / th basic event in MCs.
is The fault time I,of top event i s
I , = K ' (7) (1)
where i s a random number within the interval 10, I],
and F,-'( q)is the inverse function of F,(Q where fmr i s the fault time of the k th MCs.

Calculation of System Fault Time Statistic of System Reliability

In Fault Tree, top event (n can act as system fault and By Repeating the former two processes N times a list of

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 system fault time I,, , ... , r, could be obtained. the moment o f /+A/.
Then, based on a time.division as shown in Fig. I the
System Reliability R(r) i s calculated. Assume the starting time I i s to, and mission reliability
. ..
R(r+Ar I I ) is constant C , thus,

R(/, + A / )=C .R(/,) (11)

A/ A/ A/
... ...
b Then, with the help of the system reliability curve
0: tr-1 4 1 /
calculated in section 3, the moment t0+AI when the
r 1, 1 system reliability i s R(/,+A/I I ) could be known.
Fig.1 Time division for calculating R(r) Therefore, the Maintenance Period c. is equal to A/.
RESULTS
The time list of r, in ascending order i s made up of
/,, ,..., /.<N. Assume T,, is the maximum in the list. Fault Tree and Distribution Function
Evenly divide T,, into M intervals. Then, each
interval is /=T.,,,/M and the time of the r th interval is Fig. 2 shows a simple fault tree o f transformer, in which

I,
Yransformer fault i s the top event ( 7 ) and seven
components or subsystems in transformer system are the
,/ = r / r = I, ... , M (7) basic events (e,, ... , e,). Assume the fault distribution
Count the number m, that the element o f the list falls of basic events are of exponential distribution [ 8 ] , then
into the r th interval [/,., , r,]. Then the accumulative its accumulative fault distribution F,(r)is
value m,, which represents the number o f the time 1.
F, ( 1 ) = 1 -exp(-A, 1) I = 1,...,7 (12)
falling into the interval o f [ 0 , 4 and i s defined as
where , is the fault rate per year o f the i th basic event
M
m, = XAm, r=I,...,M (8) (asshowninTable 1 [9,10]).
,=I

The system reliability o f each interval R(f,) could be

calculated by
m
R ( l r )= 1 - 2 (9)
N
At last a curve o f system reliability can be made up of. ., ,,.-.,, ,JI,
, ...
. . .. . .
:,.: e l , e*,:._e ?._, ea.
, . e.
. , . .. . ..er,. , e?
R(It), R(I?), .... R(hr).

CALCULATION OF M A I N T E N A N C E PERIOD Fig. 2 Fault tree o f transformer

B Y MISSION R E L I A B I L I T Y
Simulation of Mission Reliability
Mission Reliability i s the probability that a system
accomplish the mission under certain conditions in a Simulation program i s developed to calculate the
certain period o f time. It i s effective, especially for a maintenance period o f power transformer based on i t s
niission of high reliability [7]. The definition is fault tree and the distribution of basic events. When
the Monte Carlo trial number N i s 1000 and division
1
R(I + A/ I ) = R ( / + A / ) / R ( t ) (10) number M is 1000, the curve o f simulated system
reliability R ( / ) varies little, as shown in Fig. 3.
where R ( t ) i s the system reliability at the moment o f
starting time I, and R(r+Ar 1 r ) is the system reliability at

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 power transformers. The way to generate reliability
Table1 Distribution parameter o f basic event
data by Monte Carlo methodits for the system o f high
Event Component 1X I 0 4 reliability, like power transformer. Moreover, with a
el Electric circuit 267 Fault Tree representing the logic o f the complex system,
el Magnetic circuit 128 maintenance crew can know how the components affect
el Transformer oil 18 the performance o f the overall system, and then decide
e4 Bushing 34 when the maintenance downtime should be, which
e5 On-load Tap Changer 44 fitting for the Condition Based Maintenance of
e6 Oil pump Cooler Radiator 10 transformers.
e, Protection, measurement 8
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CONCLUSIONS Beijing, China, 2000.
[IO] Jiang Ronghan and Wang Lianqun,
A simulated model for the calculation of maintenance
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period is developed in this paper, which i s suitable to
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